Robust multiperson detection and tracking for mobile service and social robots.

PubMed

Li, Liyuan; Yan, Shuicheng; Yu, Xinguo; Tan, Yeow Kee; Li, Haizhou

2012-10-01

This paper proposes an efficient system which integrates multiple vision models for robust multiperson detection and tracking for mobile service and social robots in public environments. The core technique is a novel maximum likelihood (ML)-based algorithm which combines the multimodel detections in mean-shift tracking. First, a likelihood probability which integrates detections and similarity to local appearance is defined. Then, an expectation-maximization (EM)-like mean-shift algorithm is derived under the ML framework. In each iteration, the E-step estimates the associations to the detections, and the M-step locates the new position according to the ML criterion. To be robust to the complex crowded scenarios for multiperson tracking, an improved sequential strategy to perform the mean-shift tracking is proposed. Under this strategy, human objects are tracked sequentially according to their priority order. To balance the efficiency and robustness for real-time performance, at each stage, the first two objects from the list of the priority order are tested, and the one with the higher score is selected. The proposed method has been successfully implemented on real-world service and social robots. The vision system integrates stereo-based and histograms-of-oriented-gradients-based human detections, occlusion reasoning, and sequential mean-shift tracking. Various examples to show the advantages and robustness of the proposed system for multiperson tracking from mobile robots are presented. Quantitative evaluations on the performance of multiperson tracking are also performed. Experimental results indicate that significant improvements have been achieved by using the proposed method.

New algorithms and methods to estimate maximum-likelihood phylogenies: assessing the performance of PhyML 3.0.

PubMed

Guindon, Stéphane; Dufayard, Jean-François; Lefort, Vincent; Anisimova, Maria; Hordijk, Wim; Gascuel, Olivier

2010-05-01

PhyML is a phylogeny software based on the maximum-likelihood principle. Early PhyML versions used a fast algorithm performing nearest neighbor interchanges to improve a reasonable starting tree topology. Since the original publication (Guindon S., Gascuel O. 2003. A simple, fast and accurate algorithm to estimate large phylogenies by maximum likelihood. Syst. Biol. 52:696-704), PhyML has been widely used (>2500 citations in ISI Web of Science) because of its simplicity and a fair compromise between accuracy and speed. In the meantime, research around PhyML has continued, and this article describes the new algorithms and methods implemented in the program. First, we introduce a new algorithm to search the tree space with user-defined intensity using subtree pruning and regrafting topological moves. The parsimony criterion is used here to filter out the least promising topology modifications with respect to the likelihood function. The analysis of a large collection of real nucleotide and amino acid data sets of various sizes demonstrates the good performance of this method. Second, we describe a new test to assess the support of the data for internal branches of a phylogeny. This approach extends the recently proposed approximate likelihood-ratio test and relies on a nonparametric, Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like procedure. A detailed analysis of real alignments sheds light on the links between this new approach and the more classical nonparametric bootstrap method. Overall, our tests show that the last version (3.0) of PhyML is fast, accurate, stable, and ready to use. A Web server and binary files are available from http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/phyml/.

Maximum likelihood of phylogenetic networks.

PubMed

Jin, Guohua; Nakhleh, Luay; Snir, Sagi; Tuller, Tamir

2006-11-01

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is believed to be ubiquitous among bacteria, and plays a major role in their genome diversification as well as their ability to develop resistance to antibiotics. In light of its evolutionary significance and implications for human health, developing accurate and efficient methods for detecting and reconstructing HGT is imperative. In this article we provide a new HGT-oriented likelihood framework for many problems that involve phylogeny-based HGT detection and reconstruction. Beside the formulation of various likelihood criteria, we show that most of these problems are NP-hard, and offer heuristics for efficient and accurate reconstruction of HGT under these criteria. We implemented our heuristics and used them to analyze biological as well as synthetic data. In both cases, our criteria and heuristics exhibited very good performance with respect to identifying the correct number of HGT events as well as inferring their correct location on the species tree. Implementation of the criteria as well as heuristics and hardness proofs are available from the authors upon request. Hardness proofs can also be downloaded at http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~tamirtul/MLNET/Supp-ML.pdf

THESEUS: maximum likelihood superpositioning and analysis of macromolecular structures

PubMed Central

Theobald, Douglas L.; Wuttke, Deborah S.

2008-01-01

Summary THESEUS is a command line program for performing maximum likelihood (ML) superpositions and analysis of macromolecular structures. While conventional superpositioning methods use ordinary least-squares (LS) as the optimization criterion, ML superpositions provide substantially improved accuracy by down-weighting variable structural regions and by correcting for correlations among atoms. ML superpositioning is robust and insensitive to the specific atoms included in the analysis, and thus it does not require subjective pruning of selected variable atomic coordinates. Output includes both likelihood-based and frequentist statistics for accurate evaluation of the adequacy of a superposition and for reliable analysis of structural similarities and differences. THESEUS performs principal components analysis for analyzing the complex correlations found among atoms within a structural ensemble. PMID:16777907

Maximum-likelihood methods in wavefront sensing: stochastic models and likelihood functions

PubMed Central

Barrett, Harrison H.; Dainty, Christopher; Lara, David

2008-01-01

Maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation in wavefront sensing requires careful attention to all noise sources and all factors that influence the sensor data. We present detailed probability density functions for the output of the image detector in a wavefront sensor, conditional not only on wavefront parameters but also on various nuisance parameters. Practical ways of dealing with nuisance parameters are described, and final expressions for likelihoods and Fisher information matrices are derived. The theory is illustrated by discussing Shack–Hartmann sensors, and computational requirements are discussed. Simulation results show that ML estimation can significantly increase the dynamic range of a Shack–Hartmann sensor with four detectors and that it can reduce the residual wavefront error when compared with traditional methods. PMID:17206255

THESEUS: maximum likelihood superpositioning and analysis of macromolecular structures.

PubMed

Theobald, Douglas L; Wuttke, Deborah S

2006-09-01

THESEUS is a command line program for performing maximum likelihood (ML) superpositions and analysis of macromolecular structures. While conventional superpositioning methods use ordinary least-squares (LS) as the optimization criterion, ML superpositions provide substantially improved accuracy by down-weighting variable structural regions and by correcting for correlations among atoms. ML superpositioning is robust and insensitive to the specific atoms included in the analysis, and thus it does not require subjective pruning of selected variable atomic coordinates. Output includes both likelihood-based and frequentist statistics for accurate evaluation of the adequacy of a superposition and for reliable analysis of structural similarities and differences. THESEUS performs principal components analysis for analyzing the complex correlations found among atoms within a structural ensemble. ANSI C source code and selected binaries for various computing platforms are available under the GNU open source license from http://monkshood.colorado.edu/theseus/ or http://www.theseus3d.org.

Symbol Synchronization for Diffusion-Based Molecular Communications.

PubMed

Jamali, Vahid; Ahmadzadeh, Arman; Schober, Robert

2017-12-01

Symbol synchronization refers to the estimation of the start of a symbol interval and is needed for reliable detection. In this paper, we develop several symbol synchronization schemes for molecular communication (MC) systems where we consider some practical challenges, which have not been addressed in the literature yet. In particular, we take into account that in MC systems, the transmitter may not be equipped with an internal clock and may not be able to emit molecules with a fixed release frequency. Such restrictions hold for practical nanotransmitters, e.g., modified cells, where the lengths of the symbol intervals may vary due to the inherent randomness in the availability of food and energy for molecule generation, the process for molecule production, and the release process. To address this issue, we develop two synchronization-detection frameworks which both employ two types of molecule. In the first framework, one type of molecule is used for symbol synchronization and the other one is used for data detection, whereas in the second framework, both types of molecule are used for joint symbol synchronization and data detection. For both frameworks, we first derive the optimal maximum likelihood (ML) symbol synchronization schemes as performance upper bounds. Since ML synchronization entails high complexity, for each framework, we also propose three low-complexity suboptimal schemes, namely a linear filter-based scheme, a peak observation-based scheme, and a threshold-trigger scheme, which are suitable for MC systems with limited computational capabilities. Furthermore, we study the relative complexity and the constraints associated with the proposed schemes and the impact of the insertion and deletion errors that arise due to imperfect synchronization. Our simulation results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed synchronization schemes and suggest that the end-to-end performance of MC systems significantly depends on the accuracy of the symbol synchronization.

Maximum Likelihood Shift Estimation Using High Resolution Polarimetric SAR Clutter Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harant, Olivier; Bombrun, Lionel; Vasile, Gabriel; Ferro-Famil, Laurent; Gay, Michel

2011-03-01

This paper deals with a Maximum Likelihood (ML) shift estimation method in the context of High Resolution (HR) Polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) clutter. Texture modeling is exposed and the generalized ML texture tracking method is extended to the merging of various sensors. Some results on displacement estimation on the Argentiere glacier in the Mont Blanc massif using dual-pol TerraSAR-X (TSX) and quad-pol RADARSAT-2 (RS2) sensors are finally discussed.

Efficient computation of the phylogenetic likelihood function on multi-gene alignments and multi-core architectures.

PubMed

Stamatakis, Alexandros; Ott, Michael

2008-12-27

The continuous accumulation of sequence data, for example, due to novel wet-laboratory techniques such as pyrosequencing, coupled with the increasing popularity of multi-gene phylogenies and emerging multi-core processor architectures that face problems of cache congestion, poses new challenges with respect to the efficient computation of the phylogenetic maximum-likelihood (ML) function. Here, we propose two approaches that can significantly speed up likelihood computations that typically represent over 95 per cent of the computational effort conducted by current ML or Bayesian inference programs. Initially, we present a method and an appropriate data structure to efficiently compute the likelihood score on 'gappy' multi-gene alignments. By 'gappy' we denote sampling-induced gaps owing to missing sequences in individual genes (partitions), i.e. not real alignment gaps. A first proof-of-concept implementation in RAXML indicates that this approach can accelerate inferences on large and gappy alignments by approximately one order of magnitude. Moreover, we present insights and initial performance results on multi-core architectures obtained during the transition from an OpenMP-based to a Pthreads-based fine-grained parallelization of the ML function.

Profile-Likelihood Approach for Estimating Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Factor Structures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeon, Minjeong; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2012-01-01

In this article, the authors suggest a profile-likelihood approach for estimating complex models by maximum likelihood (ML) using standard software and minimal programming. The method works whenever setting some of the parameters of the model to known constants turns the model into a standard model. An important class of models that can be…

Free kick instead of cross-validation in maximum-likelihood refinement of macromolecular crystal structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pražnikar, Jure; University of Primorska,; Turk, Dušan, E-mail: dusan.turk@ijs.si

2014-12-01

The maximum-likelihood free-kick target, which calculates model error estimates from the work set and a randomly displaced model, proved superior in the accuracy and consistency of refinement of crystal structures compared with the maximum-likelihood cross-validation target, which calculates error estimates from the test set and the unperturbed model. The refinement of a molecular model is a computational procedure by which the atomic model is fitted to the diffraction data. The commonly used target in the refinement of macromolecular structures is the maximum-likelihood (ML) function, which relies on the assessment of model errors. The current ML functions rely on cross-validation. Theymore » utilize phase-error estimates that are calculated from a small fraction of diffraction data, called the test set, that are not used to fit the model. An approach has been developed that uses the work set to calculate the phase-error estimates in the ML refinement from simulating the model errors via the random displacement of atomic coordinates. It is called ML free-kick refinement as it uses the ML formulation of the target function and is based on the idea of freeing the model from the model bias imposed by the chemical energy restraints used in refinement. This approach for the calculation of error estimates is superior to the cross-validation approach: it reduces the phase error and increases the accuracy of molecular models, is more robust, provides clearer maps and may use a smaller portion of data for the test set for the calculation of R{sub free} or may leave it out completely.« less

Long-Branch Attraction Bias and Inconsistency in Bayesian Phylogenetics

PubMed Central

Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W.

2009-01-01

Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias—which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data—also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages—that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis. PMID:20011052

Long-branch attraction bias and inconsistency in Bayesian phylogenetics.

PubMed

Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

2009-12-09

Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias--which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data--also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages--that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis.

Maximum likelihood decoding analysis of accumulate-repeat-accumulate codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbasfar, A.; Divsalar, D.; Yao, K.

2004-01-01

In this paper, the performance of the repeat-accumulate codes with (ML) decoding are analyzed and compared to random codes by very tight bounds. Some simple codes are shown that perform very close to Shannon limit with maximum likelihood decoding.

An Investigation of the Sample Performance of Two Nonnormality Corrections for RMSEA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brosseau-Liard, Patricia E.; Savalei, Victoria; Li, Libo

2012-01-01

The root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) is a popular fit index in structural equation modeling (SEM). Typically, RMSEA is computed using the normal theory maximum likelihood (ML) fit function. Under nonnormality, the uncorrected sample estimate of the ML RMSEA tends to be inflated. Two robust corrections to the sample ML RMSEA have…

Reliable and More Powerful Methods for Power Analysis in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Zhang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Yanyun

2017-01-01

The normal-distribution-based likelihood ratio statistic T[subscript ml] = nF[subscript ml] is widely used for power analysis in structural Equation modeling (SEM). In such an analysis, power and sample size are computed by assuming that T[subscript ml] follows a central chi-square distribution under H[subscript 0] and a noncentral chi-square…

Identification of multiple leaks in pipeline: Linearized model, maximum likelihood, and super-resolution localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xun; Ghidaoui, Mohamed S.

2018-07-01

This paper considers the problem of identifying multiple leaks in a water-filled pipeline based on inverse transient wave theory. The analytical solution to this problem involves nonlinear interaction terms between the various leaks. This paper shows analytically and numerically that these nonlinear terms are of the order of the leak sizes to the power two and; thus, negligible. As a result of this simplification, a maximum likelihood (ML) scheme that identifies leak locations and leak sizes separately is formulated and tested. It is found that the ML estimation scheme is highly efficient and robust with respect to noise. In addition, the ML method is a super-resolution leak localization scheme because its resolvable leak distance (approximately 0.15λmin , where λmin is the minimum wavelength) is below the Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem limit (0.5λmin). Moreover, the Cramér-Rao lower bound (CRLB) is derived and used to show the efficiency of the ML scheme estimates. The variance of the ML estimator approximates the CRLB proving that the ML scheme belongs to class of best unbiased estimator of leak localization methods.

Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments

PubMed Central

Eisenhauer, Philipp; Heckman, James J.; Mosso, Stefano

2015-01-01

We compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) and simulated method of moments (SMM) estimation for dynamic discrete choice models. We construct and estimate a simplified dynamic structural model of education that captures some basic features of educational choices in the United States in the 1980s and early 1990s. We use estimates from our model to simulate a synthetic dataset and assess the ability of ML and SMM to recover the model parameters on this sample. We investigate the performance of alternative tuning parameters for SMM. PMID:26494926

A comparison of minimum distance and maximum likelihood techniques for proportion estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodward, W. A.; Schucany, W. R.; Lindsey, H.; Gray, H. L.

1982-01-01

The estimation of mixing proportions P sub 1, P sub 2,...P sub m in the mixture density f(x) = the sum of the series P sub i F sub i(X) with i = 1 to M is often encountered in agricultural remote sensing problems in which case the p sub i's usually represent crop proportions. In these remote sensing applications, component densities f sub i(x) have typically been assumed to be normally distributed, and parameter estimation has been accomplished using maximum likelihood (ML) techniques. Minimum distance (MD) estimation is examined as an alternative to ML where, in this investigation, both procedures are based upon normal components. Results indicate that ML techniques are superior to MD when component distributions actually are normal, while MD estimation provides better estimates than ML under symmetric departures from normality. When component distributions are not symmetric, however, it is seen that neither of these normal based techniques provides satisfactory results.

Measurement and Structural Model Class Separation in Mixture CFA: ML/EM versus MCMC

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Depaoli, Sarah

2012-01-01

Parameter recovery was assessed within mixture confirmatory factor analysis across multiple estimator conditions under different simulated levels of mixture class separation. Mixture class separation was defined in the measurement model (through factor loadings) and the structural model (through factor variances). Maximum likelihood (ML) via the…

Empirical Correction to the Likelihood Ratio Statistic for Structural Equation Modeling with Many Variables.

PubMed

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Tian, Yubin; Yanagihara, Hirokazu

2015-06-01

Survey data typically contain many variables. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is commonly used in analyzing such data. The most widely used statistic for evaluating the adequacy of a SEM model is T ML, a slight modification to the likelihood ratio statistic. Under normality assumption, T ML approximately follows a chi-square distribution when the number of observations (N) is large and the number of items or variables (p) is small. However, in practice, p can be rather large while N is always limited due to not having enough participants. Even with a relatively large N, empirical results show that T ML rejects the correct model too often when p is not too small. Various corrections to T ML have been proposed, but they are mostly heuristic. Following the principle of the Bartlett correction, this paper proposes an empirical approach to correct T ML so that the mean of the resulting statistic approximately equals the degrees of freedom of the nominal chi-square distribution. Results show that empirically corrected statistics follow the nominal chi-square distribution much more closely than previously proposed corrections to T ML, and they control type I errors reasonably well whenever N ≥ max(50,2p). The formulations of the empirically corrected statistics are further used to predict type I errors of T ML as reported in the literature, and they perform well.

Bias and Efficiency in Structural Equation Modeling: Maximum Likelihood versus Robust Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhong, Xiaoling; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2011-01-01

In the structural equation modeling literature, the normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (ML) method is most widely used, partly because the resulting estimator is claimed to be asymptotically unbiased and most efficient. However, this may not hold when data deviate from normal distribution. Outlying cases or nonnormally distributed data,…

Five Methods for Estimating Angoff Cut Scores with IRT

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyse, Adam E.

2017-01-01

This article illustrates five different methods for estimating Angoff cut scores using item response theory (IRT) models. These include maximum likelihood (ML), expected a priori (EAP), modal a priori (MAP), and weighted maximum likelihood (WML) estimators, as well as the most commonly used approach based on translating ratings through the test…

Estimation of Complex Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Measurement and Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeon, Minjeong

2012-01-01

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) is technically challenging because of the intractable likelihoods that involve high dimensional integrations over random effects. The problem is magnified when the random effects have a crossed design and thus the data cannot be reduced to small independent clusters. A…

Cramer-Rao Bound, MUSIC, and Maximum Likelihood. Effects of Temporal Phase Difference

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

Technical Report 1373 November 1990 Cramer-Rao Bound, MUSIC , And Maximum Likelihood Effects of Temporal Phase o Difference C. V. TranI OTIC Approved... MUSIC , and Maximum Likelihood (ML) asymptotic variances corresponding to the two-source direction-of-arrival estimation where sources were modeled as...1pI = 1.00, SNR = 20 dB ..................................... 27 2. MUSIC for two equipowered signals impinging on a 5-element ULA (a) IpI = 0.50, SNR

Maximum Likelihood Analysis of a Two-Level Nonlinear Structural Equation Model with Fixed Covariates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan

2005-01-01

In this article, a maximum likelihood (ML) approach for analyzing a rather general two-level structural equation model is developed for hierarchically structured data that are very common in educational and/or behavioral research. The proposed two-level model can accommodate nonlinear causal relations among latent variables as well as effects…

Maximum likelihood orientation estimation of 1-D patterns in Laguerre-Gauss subspaces.

PubMed

Di Claudio, Elio D; Jacovitti, Giovanni; Laurenti, Alberto

2010-05-01

A method for measuring the orientation of linear (1-D) patterns, based on a local expansion with Laguerre-Gauss circular harmonic (LG-CH) functions, is presented. It lies on the property that the polar separable LG-CH functions span the same space as the 2-D Cartesian separable Hermite-Gauss (2-D HG) functions. Exploiting the simple steerability of the LG-CH functions and the peculiar block-linear relationship among the two expansion coefficients sets, maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of orientation and cross section parameters of 1-D patterns are obtained projecting them in a proper subspace of the 2-D HG family. It is shown in this paper that the conditional ML solution, derived by elimination of the cross section parameters, surprisingly yields the same asymptotic accuracy as the ML solution for known cross section parameters. The accuracy of the conditional ML estimator is compared to the one of state of art solutions on a theoretical basis and via simulation trials. A thorough proof of the key relationship between the LG-CH and the 2-D HG expansions is also provided.

A tree island approach to inferring phylogeny in the ant subfamily Formicinae, with especial reference to the evolution of weaving.

PubMed

Johnson, Rebecca N; Agapow, Paul-Michael; Crozier, Ross H

2003-11-01

The ant subfamily Formicinae is a large assemblage (2458 species (J. Nat. Hist. 29 (1995) 1037), including species that weave leaf nests together with larval silk and in which the metapleural gland-the ancestrally defining ant character-has been secondarily lost. We used sequences from two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and cytochrome oxidase 2) from 18 formicine and 4 outgroup taxa to derive a robust phylogeny, employing a search for tree islands using 10000 randomly constructed trees as starting points and deriving a maximum likelihood consensus tree from the ML tree and those not significantly different from it. Non-parametric bootstrapping showed that the ML consensus tree fit the data significantly better than three scenarios based on morphology, with that of Bolton (Identification Guide to the Ant Genera of the World, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) being the best among these alternative trees. Trait mapping showed that weaving had arisen at least four times and possibly been lost once. A maximum likelihood analysis showed that loss of the metapleural gland is significantly associated with the weaver life-pattern. The graph of the frequencies with which trees were discovered versus their likelihood indicates that trees with high likelihoods have much larger basins of attraction than those with lower likelihoods. While this result indicates that single searches are more likely to find high- than low-likelihood tree islands, it also indicates that searching only for the single best tree may lose important information.

Maximum-likelihood estimation of parameterized wavefronts from multifocal data

PubMed Central

Sakamoto, Julia A.; Barrett, Harrison H.

2012-01-01

A method for determining the pupil phase distribution of an optical system is demonstrated. Coefficients in a wavefront expansion were estimated using likelihood methods, where the data consisted of multiple irradiance patterns near focus. Proof-of-principle results were obtained in both simulation and experiment. Large-aberration wavefronts were handled in the numerical study. Experimentally, we discuss the handling of nuisance parameters. Fisher information matrices, Cramér-Rao bounds, and likelihood surfaces are examined. ML estimates were obtained by simulated annealing to deal with numerous local extrema in the likelihood function. Rapid processing techniques were employed to reduce the computational time. PMID:22772282

Bootstrap Standard Errors for Maximum Likelihood Ability Estimates When Item Parameters Are Unknown

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Jeffrey M.; Cheng, Ying; Yuan, Ke-Hai; Diao, Qi

2014-01-01

When item parameter estimates are used to estimate the ability parameter in item response models, the standard error (SE) of the ability estimate must be corrected to reflect the error carried over from item calibration. For maximum likelihood (ML) ability estimates, a corrected asymptotic SE is available, but it requires a long test and the…

Fast estimation of diffusion tensors under Rician noise by the EM algorithm.

PubMed

Liu, Jia; Gasbarra, Dario; Railavo, Juha

2016-01-15

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is widely used to characterize, in vivo, the white matter of the central nerve system (CNS). This biological tissue contains much anatomic, structural and orientational information of fibers in human brain. Spectral data from the displacement distribution of water molecules located in the brain tissue are collected by a magnetic resonance scanner and acquired in the Fourier domain. After the Fourier inversion, the noise distribution is Gaussian in both real and imaginary parts and, as a consequence, the recorded magnitude data are corrupted by Rician noise. Statistical estimation of diffusion leads a non-linear regression problem. In this paper, we present a fast computational method for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of diffusivities under the Rician noise model based on the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. By using data augmentation, we are able to transform a non-linear regression problem into the generalized linear modeling framework, reducing dramatically the computational cost. The Fisher-scoring method is used for achieving fast convergence of the tensor parameter. The new method is implemented and applied using both synthetic and real data in a wide range of b-amplitudes up to 14,000s/mm(2). Higher accuracy and precision of the Rician estimates are achieved compared with other log-normal based methods. In addition, we extend the maximum likelihood (ML) framework to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation in DTI under the aforementioned scheme by specifying the priors. We will describe how close numerically are the estimators of model parameters obtained through MLE and MAP estimation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Addressing Data Analysis Challenges in Gravitational Wave Searches Using the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerathunga, Thilina Shihan

2017-08-01

Gravitational waves are a fundamental prediction of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity. The first experimental proof of their existence was provided by the Nobel Prize winning discovery by Taylor and Hulse of orbital decay in a binary pulsar system. The first detection of gravitational waves incident on earth from an astrophysical source was announced in 2016 by the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, launching the new era of gravitational wave (GW) astronomy. The signal detected was from the merger of two black holes, which is an example of sources called Compact Binary Coalescences (CBCs). Data analysis strategies used in the search for CBC signals are derivatives of the Maximum-Likelihood (ML) method. The ML method applied to data from a network of geographically distributed GW detectors--called fully coherent network analysis--is currently the best approach for estimating source location and GW polarization waveforms. However, in the case of CBCs, especially for lower mass systems (O(1M solar masses)) such as double neutron star binaries, fully coherent network analysis is computationally expensive. The ML method requires locating the global maximum of the likelihood function over a nine dimensional parameter space, where the computation of the likelihood at each point requires correlations involving O(104) to O(106) samples between the data and the corresponding candidate signal waveform template. Approximations, such as semi-coherent coincidence searches, are currently used to circumvent the computational barrier but incur a concomitant loss in sensitivity. We explored the effectiveness of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a well-known algorithm in the field of swarm intelligence, in addressing the fully coherent network analysis problem. As an example, we used a four-detector network consisting of the two LIGO detectors at Hanford and Livingston, Virgo and Kagra, all having initial LIGO noise power spectral densities, and show that PSO can locate the global maximum with less than 240,000 likelihood evaluations for a component mass range of 1.0 to 10.0 solar masses at a realistic coherent network signal to noise ratio of 9.0. Our results show that PSO can successfully deliver a fully-coherent all-sky search with < (1/10 ) the number of likelihood evaluations needed for a grid-based search. Used as a follow-up step, the savings in the number of likelihood evaluations may also reduce latency in obtaining ML estimates of source parameters in semi-coherent searches.

Fitting power-laws in empirical data with estimators that work for all exponents

PubMed Central

Hanel, Rudolf; Corominas-Murtra, Bernat; Liu, Bo; Thurner, Stefan

2017-01-01

Most standard methods based on maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of power-law exponents can only be reliably used to identify exponents smaller than minus one. The argument that power laws are otherwise not normalizable, depends on the underlying sample space the data is drawn from, and is true only for sample spaces that are unbounded from above. Power-laws obtained from bounded sample spaces (as is the case for practically all data related problems) are always free of such limitations and maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained for arbitrary powers without restrictions. Here we first derive the appropriate ML estimator for arbitrary exponents of power-law distributions on bounded discrete sample spaces. We then show that an almost identical estimator also works perfectly for continuous data. We implemented this ML estimator and discuss its performance with previous attempts. We present a general recipe of how to use these estimators and present the associated computer codes. PMID:28245249

A Two-Stage Approach to Missing Data: Theory and Application to Auxiliary Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savalei, Victoria; Bentler, Peter M.

2009-01-01

A well-known ad-hoc approach to conducting structural equation modeling with missing data is to obtain a saturated maximum likelihood (ML) estimate of the population covariance matrix and then to use this estimate in the complete data ML fitting function to obtain parameter estimates. This 2-stage (TS) approach is appealing because it minimizes a…

The Performance of ML, GLS, and WLS Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling under Conditions of Misspecification and Nonnormality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olsson, Ulf Henning; Foss, Tron; Troye, Sigurd V.; Howell, Roy D.

2000-01-01

Used simulation to demonstrate how the choice of estimation method affects indexes of fit and parameter bias for different sample sizes when nested models vary in terms of specification error and the data demonstrate different levels of kurtosis. Discusses results for maximum likelihood (ML), generalized least squares (GLS), and weighted least…

SEM with Missing Data and Unknown Population Distributions Using Two-Stage ML: Theory and Its Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Lu, Laura

2008-01-01

This article provides the theory and application of the 2-stage maximum likelihood (ML) procedure for structural equation modeling (SEM) with missing data. The validity of this procedure does not require the assumption of a normally distributed population. When the population is normally distributed and all missing data are missing at random…

Maximum likelihood positioning algorithm for high-resolution PET scanners

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gross-Weege, Nicolas, E-mail: nicolas.gross-weege@pmi.rwth-aachen.de, E-mail: schulz@pmi.rwth-aachen.de; Schug, David; Hallen, Patrick

2016-06-15

Purpose: In high-resolution positron emission tomography (PET), lightsharing elements are incorporated into typical detector stacks to read out scintillator arrays in which one scintillator element (crystal) is smaller than the size of the readout channel. In order to identify the hit crystal by means of the measured light distribution, a positioning algorithm is required. One commonly applied positioning algorithm uses the center of gravity (COG) of the measured light distribution. The COG algorithm is limited in spatial resolution by noise and intercrystal Compton scatter. The purpose of this work is to develop a positioning algorithm which overcomes this limitation. Methods:more » The authors present a maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm which compares a set of expected light distributions given by probability density functions (PDFs) with the measured light distribution. Instead of modeling the PDFs by using an analytical model, the PDFs of the proposed ML algorithm are generated assuming a single-gamma-interaction model from measured data. The algorithm was evaluated with a hot-rod phantom measurement acquired with the preclinical HYPERION II {sup D} PET scanner. In order to assess the performance with respect to sensitivity, energy resolution, and image quality, the ML algorithm was compared to a COG algorithm which calculates the COG from a restricted set of channels. The authors studied the energy resolution of the ML and the COG algorithm regarding incomplete light distributions (missing channel information caused by detector dead time). Furthermore, the authors investigated the effects of using a filter based on the likelihood values on sensitivity, energy resolution, and image quality. Results: A sensitivity gain of up to 19% was demonstrated in comparison to the COG algorithm for the selected operation parameters. Energy resolution and image quality were on a similar level for both algorithms. Additionally, the authors demonstrated that the performance of the ML algorithm is less prone to missing channel information. A likelihood filter visually improved the image quality, i.e., the peak-to-valley increased up to a factor of 3 for 2-mm-diameter phantom rods by rejecting 87% of the coincidences. A relative improvement of the energy resolution of up to 12.8% was also measured rejecting 91% of the coincidences. Conclusions: The developed ML algorithm increases the sensitivity by correctly handling missing channel information without influencing energy resolution or image quality. Furthermore, the authors showed that energy resolution and image quality can be improved substantially by rejecting events that do not comply well with the single-gamma-interaction model, such as Compton-scattered events.« less

Salivary flow rate and periodontal infection - a study among subjects aged 75 years or older.

PubMed

Syrjälä, A-M H; Raatikainen, L; Komulainen, K; Knuuttila, M; Ruoppi, P; Hartikainen, S; Sulkava, R; Ylöstalo, P

2011-05-01

To analyse the relation of stimulated and unstimulated salivary flow rates to periodontal infection in home-dwelling elderly people aged 75 years or older. This study was based on a subpopulation of 157 (111 women, 46 men) home-dwelling, dentate, non-smoking elderly people (mean age 79.8, SD 3.6 years) from the Geriatric Multidisciplinary Strategy for the Good Care of the Elderly Study). The data were collected by interview and oral clinical examination. Persons with very low (< 0.7 ml min⁻¹) and low stimulated salivary flow rates (0.7- < 1.0 ml min⁻¹) had a decreased likelihood of having teeth with deepened (≥ 4 mm) periodontal pockets, RR: 0.7, CI: 0.5-0.9 and RR: 0.7, CI: 0.5-0.9, respectively, when compared with those with normal stimulated salivary flow. Persons with a very low unstimulated salivary flow rate (< 0.1 ml min⁻¹) had a decreased likelihood of having teeth with deepened (≥ 4 mm) periodontal pockets, RR 0.8, CI: 0.6-1.0, when compared with subjects with low/normal unstimulated salivary flow. In a population of dentate, home-dwelling non-smokers, aged 75 years or older, low stimulated and unstimulated salivary flow rates were weakly associated with a decreased likelihood of having teeth with deep periodontal pockets. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Application of maximum-likelihood estimation in optical coherence tomography for nanometer-class thickness estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jinxin; Yuan, Qun; Tankam, Patrice; Clarkson, Eric; Kupinski, Matthew; Hindman, Holly B.; Aquavella, James V.; Rolland, Jannick P.

2015-03-01

In biophotonics imaging, one important and quantitative task is layer-thickness estimation. In this study, we investigate the approach of combining optical coherence tomography and a maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator for layer thickness estimation in the context of tear film imaging. The motivation of this study is to extend our understanding of tear film dynamics, which is the prerequisite to advance the management of Dry Eye Disease, through the simultaneous estimation of the thickness of the tear film lipid and aqueous layers. The estimator takes into account the different statistical processes associated with the imaging chain. We theoretically investigated the impact of key system parameters, such as the axial point spread functions (PSF) and various sources of noise on measurement uncertainty. Simulations show that an OCT system with a 1 μm axial PSF (FWHM) allows unbiased estimates down to nanometers with nanometer precision. In implementation, we built a customized Fourier domain OCT system that operates in the 600 to 1000 nm spectral window and achieves 0.93 micron axial PSF in corneal epithelium. We then validated the theoretical framework with physical phantoms made of custom optical coatings, with layer thicknesses from tens of nanometers to microns. Results demonstrate unbiased nanometer-class thickness estimates in three different physical phantoms.

DiscML: an R package for estimating evolutionary rates of discrete characters using maximum likelihood.

PubMed

Kim, Tane; Hao, Weilong

2014-09-27

The study of discrete characters is crucial for the understanding of evolutionary processes. Even though great advances have been made in the analysis of nucleotide sequences, computer programs for non-DNA discrete characters are often dedicated to specific analyses and lack flexibility. Discrete characters often have different transition rate matrices, variable rates among sites and sometimes contain unobservable states. To obtain the ability to accurately estimate a variety of discrete characters, programs with sophisticated methodologies and flexible settings are desired. DiscML performs maximum likelihood estimation for evolutionary rates of discrete characters on a provided phylogeny with the options that correct for unobservable data, rate variations, and unknown prior root probabilities from the empirical data. It gives users options to customize the instantaneous transition rate matrices, or to choose pre-determined matrices from models such as birth-and-death (BD), birth-death-and-innovation (BDI), equal rates (ER), symmetric (SYM), general time-reversible (GTR) and all rates different (ARD). Moreover, we show application examples of DiscML on gene family data and on intron presence/absence data. DiscML was developed as a unified R program for estimating evolutionary rates of discrete characters with no restriction on the number of character states, and with flexibility to use different transition models. DiscML is ideal for the analyses of binary (1s/0s) patterns, multi-gene families, and multistate discrete morphological characteristics.

Unsupervised real-time speaker identification for daily movies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ying; Kuo, C.-C. Jay

2002-07-01

The problem of identifying speakers for movie content analysis is addressed in this paper. While most previous work on speaker identification was carried out in a supervised mode using pure audio data, more robust results can be obtained in real-time by integrating knowledge from multiple media sources in an unsupervised mode. In this work, both audio and visual cues will be employed and subsequently combined in a probabilistic framework to identify speakers. Particularly, audio information is used to identify speakers with a maximum likelihood (ML)-based approach while visual information is adopted to distinguish speakers by detecting and recognizing their talking faces based on face detection/recognition and mouth tracking techniques. Moreover, to accommodate for speakers' acoustic variations along time, we update their models on the fly by adapting to their newly contributed speech data. Encouraging results have been achieved through extensive experiments, which shows a promising future of the proposed audiovisual-based unsupervised speaker identification system.

On the Performance of Maximum Likelihood versus Means and Variance Adjusted Weighted Least Squares Estimation in CFA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beauducel, Andre; Herzberg, Philipp Yorck

2006-01-01

This simulation study compared maximum likelihood (ML) estimation with weighted least squares means and variance adjusted (WLSMV) estimation. The study was based on confirmatory factor analyses with 1, 2, 4, and 8 factors, based on 250, 500, 750, and 1,000 cases, and on 5, 10, 20, and 40 variables with 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 categories. There was no…

Using an EM Covariance Matrix to Estimate Structural Equation Models with Missing Data: Choosing an Adjusted Sample Size to Improve the Accuracy of Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Enders, Craig K.; Peugh, James L.

2004-01-01

Two methods, direct maximum likelihood (ML) and the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, can be used to obtain ML parameter estimates for structural equation models with missing data (MD). Although the 2 methods frequently produce identical parameter estimates, it may be easier to satisfy missing at random assumptions using EM. However, no…

Is the ML Chi-Square Ever Robust to Nonnormality? A Cautionary Note with Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savalei, Victoria

2008-01-01

Normal theory maximum likelihood (ML) is by far the most popular estimation and testing method used in structural equation modeling (SEM), and it is the default in most SEM programs. Even though this approach assumes multivariate normality of the data, its use can be justified on the grounds that it is fairly robust to the violations of the…

Approximated mutual information training for speech recognition using myoelectric signals.

PubMed

Guo, Hua J; Chan, A D C

2006-01-01

A new training algorithm called the approximated maximum mutual information (AMMI) is proposed to improve the accuracy of myoelectric speech recognition using hidden Markov models (HMMs). Previous studies have demonstrated that automatic speech recognition can be performed using myoelectric signals from articulatory muscles of the face. Classification of facial myoelectric signals can be performed using HMMs that are trained using the maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm; however, this algorithm maximizes the likelihood of the observations in the training sequence, which is not directly associated with optimal classification accuracy. The AMMI training algorithm attempts to maximize the mutual information, thereby training the HMMs to optimize their parameters for discrimination. Our results show that AMMI training consistently reduces the error rates compared to these by the ML training, increasing the accuracy by approximately 3% on average.

Improving Depth, Energy and Timing Estimation in PET Detectors with Deconvolution and Maximum Likelihood Pulse Shape Discrimination

PubMed Central

Berg, Eric; Roncali, Emilie; Hutchcroft, Will; Qi, Jinyi; Cherry, Simon R.

2016-01-01

In a scintillation detector, the light generated in the scintillator by a gamma interaction is converted to photoelectrons by a photodetector and produces a time-dependent waveform, the shape of which depends on the scintillator properties and the photodetector response. Several depth-of-interaction (DOI) encoding strategies have been developed that manipulate the scintillator’s temporal response along the crystal length and therefore require pulse shape discrimination techniques to differentiate waveform shapes. In this work, we demonstrate how maximum likelihood (ML) estimation methods can be applied to pulse shape discrimination to better estimate deposited energy, DOI and interaction time (for time-of-flight (TOF) PET) of a gamma ray in a scintillation detector. We developed likelihood models based on either the estimated detection times of individual photoelectrons or the number of photoelectrons in discrete time bins, and applied to two phosphor-coated crystals (LFS and LYSO) used in a previously developed TOF-DOI detector concept. Compared with conventional analytical methods, ML pulse shape discrimination improved DOI encoding by 27% for both crystals. Using the ML DOI estimate, we were able to counter depth-dependent changes in light collection inherent to long scintillator crystals and recover the energy resolution measured with fixed depth irradiation (~11.5% for both crystals). Lastly, we demonstrated how the Richardson-Lucy algorithm, an iterative, ML-based deconvolution technique, can be applied to the digitized waveforms to deconvolve the photodetector’s single photoelectron response and produce waveforms with a faster rising edge. After deconvolution and applying DOI and time-walk corrections, we demonstrated a 13% improvement in coincidence timing resolution (from 290 to 254 ps) with the LFS crystal and an 8% improvement (323 to 297 ps) with the LYSO crystal. PMID:27295658

Improving Depth, Energy and Timing Estimation in PET Detectors with Deconvolution and Maximum Likelihood Pulse Shape Discrimination.

PubMed

Berg, Eric; Roncali, Emilie; Hutchcroft, Will; Qi, Jinyi; Cherry, Simon R

2016-11-01

In a scintillation detector, the light generated in the scintillator by a gamma interaction is converted to photoelectrons by a photodetector and produces a time-dependent waveform, the shape of which depends on the scintillator properties and the photodetector response. Several depth-of-interaction (DOI) encoding strategies have been developed that manipulate the scintillator's temporal response along the crystal length and therefore require pulse shape discrimination techniques to differentiate waveform shapes. In this work, we demonstrate how maximum likelihood (ML) estimation methods can be applied to pulse shape discrimination to better estimate deposited energy, DOI and interaction time (for time-of-flight (TOF) PET) of a gamma ray in a scintillation detector. We developed likelihood models based on either the estimated detection times of individual photoelectrons or the number of photoelectrons in discrete time bins, and applied to two phosphor-coated crystals (LFS and LYSO) used in a previously developed TOF-DOI detector concept. Compared with conventional analytical methods, ML pulse shape discrimination improved DOI encoding by 27% for both crystals. Using the ML DOI estimate, we were able to counter depth-dependent changes in light collection inherent to long scintillator crystals and recover the energy resolution measured with fixed depth irradiation (~11.5% for both crystals). Lastly, we demonstrated how the Richardson-Lucy algorithm, an iterative, ML-based deconvolution technique, can be applied to the digitized waveforms to deconvolve the photodetector's single photoelectron response and produce waveforms with a faster rising edge. After deconvolution and applying DOI and time-walk corrections, we demonstrated a 13% improvement in coincidence timing resolution (from 290 to 254 ps) with the LFS crystal and an 8% improvement (323 to 297 ps) with the LYSO crystal.

The influence of ignoring secondary structure on divergence time estimates from ribosomal RNA genes.

PubMed

Dohrmann, Martin

2014-02-01

Genes coding for ribosomal RNA molecules (rDNA) are among the most popular markers in molecular phylogenetics and evolution. However, coevolution of sites that code for pairing regions (stems) in the RNA secondary structure can make it challenging to obtain accurate results from such loci. While the influence of ignoring secondary structure on multiple sequence alignment and tree topology has been investigated in numerous studies, its effect on molecular divergence time estimates is still poorly known. Here, I investigate this issue in Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (BMCMC) and penalized likelihood (PL) frameworks, using empirical datasets from dragonflies (Odonata: Anisoptera) and glass sponges (Porifera: Hexactinellida). My results indicate that highly biased inferences under substitution models that ignore secondary structure only occur if maximum-likelihood estimates of branch lengths are used as input to PL dating, whereas in a BMCMC framework and in PL dating based on Bayesian consensus branch lengths, the effect is far less severe. I conclude that accounting for coevolution of paired sites in molecular dating studies is not as important as previously suggested, as long as the estimates are based on Bayesian consensus branch lengths instead of ML point estimates. This finding is especially relevant for studies where computational limitations do not allow the use of secondary-structure specific substitution models, or where accurate consensus structures cannot be predicted. I also found that the magnitude and direction (over- vs. underestimating node ages) of bias in age estimates when secondary structure is ignored was not distributed randomly across the nodes of the phylogenies, a phenomenon that requires further investigation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A unified framework for group independent component analysis for multi-subject fMRI data

PubMed Central

Guo, Ying; Pagnoni, Giuseppe

2008-01-01

Independent component analysis (ICA) is becoming increasingly popular for analyzing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. While ICA has been successfully applied to single-subject analysis, the extension of ICA to group inferences is not straightforward and remains an active topic of research. Current group ICA models, such as the GIFT (Calhoun et al., 2001) and tensor PICA (Beckmann and Smith, 2005), make different assumptions about the underlying structure of the group spatio-temporal processes and are thus estimated using algorithms tailored for the assumed structure, potentially leading to diverging results. To our knowledge, there are currently no methods for assessing the validity of different model structures in real fMRI data and selecting the most appropriate one among various choices. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for estimating and comparing group ICA models with varying spatio-temporal structures. We consider a class of group ICA models that can accommodate different group structures and include existing models, such as the GIFT and tensor PICA, as special cases. We propose a maximum likelihood (ML) approach with a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the estimation of the proposed class of models. Likelihood ratio tests (LRT) are presented to compare between different group ICA models. The LRT can be used to perform model comparison and selection, to assess the goodness-of-fit of a model in a particular data set, and to test group differences in the fMRI signal time courses between subject subgroups. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method under varying structures of group spatio-temporal processes. We illustrate our group ICA method using data from an fMRI study that investigates changes in neural processing associated with the regular practice of Zen meditation. PMID:18650105

Less-Complex Method of Classifying MPSK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamkins, Jon

2006-01-01

An alternative to an optimal method of automated classification of signals modulated with M-ary phase-shift-keying (M-ary PSK or MPSK) has been derived. The alternative method is approximate, but it offers nearly optimal performance and entails much less complexity, which translates to much less computation time. Modulation classification is becoming increasingly important in radio-communication systems that utilize multiple data modulation schemes and include software-defined or software-controlled receivers. Such a receiver may "know" little a priori about an incoming signal but may be required to correctly classify its data rate, modulation type, and forward error-correction code before properly configuring itself to acquire and track the symbol timing, carrier frequency, and phase, and ultimately produce decoded bits. Modulation classification has long been an important component of military interception of initially unknown radio signals transmitted by adversaries. Modulation classification may also be useful for enabling cellular telephones to automatically recognize different signal types and configure themselves accordingly. The concept of modulation classification as outlined in the preceding paragraph is quite general. However, at the present early stage of development, and for the purpose of describing the present alternative method, the term "modulation classification" or simply "classification" signifies, more specifically, a distinction between M-ary and M'-ary PSK, where M and M' represent two different integer multiples of 2. Both the prior optimal method and the present alternative method require the acquisition of magnitude and phase values of a number (N) of consecutive baseband samples of the incoming signal + noise. The prior optimal method is based on a maximum- likelihood (ML) classification rule that requires a calculation of likelihood functions for the M and M' hypotheses: Each likelihood function is an integral, over a full cycle of carrier phase, of a complicated sum of functions of the baseband sample values, the carrier phase, the carrier-signal and noise magnitudes, and M or M'. Then the likelihood ratio, defined as the ratio between the likelihood functions, is computed, leading to the choice of whichever hypothesis - M or M'- is more likely. In the alternative method, the integral in each likelihood function is approximated by a sum over values of the integrand sampled at a number, 1, of equally spaced values of carrier phase. Used in this way, 1 is a parameter that can be adjusted to trade computational complexity against the probability of misclassification. In the limit as 1 approaches infinity, one obtains the integral form of the likelihood function and thus recovers the ML classification. The present approximate method has been tested in comparison with the ML method by means of computational simulations. The results of the simulations have shown that the performance (as quantified by probability of misclassification) of the approximate method is nearly indistinguishable from that of the ML method (see figure).

A Penalized Likelihood Framework For High-Dimensional Phylogenetic Comparative Methods And An Application To New-World Monkeys Brain Evolution.

PubMed

Julien, Clavel; Leandro, Aristide; Hélène, Morlon

2018-06-19

Working with high-dimensional phylogenetic comparative datasets is challenging because likelihood-based multivariate methods suffer from low statistical performances as the number of traits p approaches the number of species n and because some computational complications occur when p exceeds n. Alternative phylogenetic comparative methods have recently been proposed to deal with the large p small n scenario but their use and performances are limited. Here we develop a penalized likelihood framework to deal with high-dimensional comparative datasets. We propose various penalizations and methods for selecting the intensity of the penalties. We apply this general framework to the estimation of parameters (the evolutionary trait covariance matrix and parameters of the evolutionary model) and model comparison for the high-dimensional multivariate Brownian (BM), Early-burst (EB), Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) and Pagel's lambda models. We show using simulations that our penalized likelihood approach dramatically improves the estimation of evolutionary trait covariance matrices and model parameters when p approaches n, and allows for their accurate estimation when p equals or exceeds n. In addition, we show that penalized likelihood models can be efficiently compared using Generalized Information Criterion (GIC). We implement these methods, as well as the related estimation of ancestral states and the computation of phylogenetic PCA in the R package RPANDA and mvMORPH. Finally, we illustrate the utility of the new proposed framework by evaluating evolutionary models fit, analyzing integration patterns, and reconstructing evolutionary trajectories for a high-dimensional 3-D dataset of brain shape in the New World monkeys. We find a clear support for an Early-burst model suggesting an early diversification of brain morphology during the ecological radiation of the clade. Penalized likelihood offers an efficient way to deal with high-dimensional multivariate comparative data.

Global identification of stochastic dynamical systems under different pseudo-static operating conditions: The functionally pooled ARMAX case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

2017-01-01

The identification of a single global model for a stochastic dynamical system operating under various conditions is considered. Each operating condition is assumed to have a pseudo-static effect on the dynamics and be characterized by a single measurable scheduling variable. Identification is accomplished within a recently introduced Functionally Pooled (FP) framework, which offers a number of advantages over Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) identification techniques. The focus of the work is on the extension of the framework to include the important FP-ARMAX model case. Compared to their simpler FP-ARX counterparts, FP-ARMAX models are much more general and offer improved flexibility in describing various types of stochastic noise, but at the same time lead to a more complicated, non-quadratic, estimation problem. Prediction Error (PE), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and multi-stage estimation methods are postulated, and the PE estimator optimality, in terms of consistency and asymptotic efficiency, is analytically established. The postulated estimators are numerically assessed via Monte Carlo experiments, while the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority over its FP-ARX counterpart are demonstrated via an application case study pertaining to simulated railway vehicle suspension dynamics under various mass loading conditions.

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning with WorldView-2 Pan-Sharpened Imagery for Tea Crop Mapping

PubMed Central

Chuang, Yung-Chung Matt; Shiu, Yi-Shiang

2016-01-01

Tea is an important but vulnerable economic crop in East Asia, highly impacted by climate change. This study attempts to interpret tea land use/land cover (LULC) using very high resolution WorldView-2 imagery of central Taiwan with both pixel and object-based approaches. A total of 80 variables derived from each WorldView-2 band with pan-sharpening, standardization, principal components and gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) texture indices transformation, were set as the input variables. For pixel-based image analysis (PBIA), 34 variables were selected, including seven principal components, 21 GLCM texture indices and six original WorldView-2 bands. Results showed that support vector machine (SVM) had the highest tea crop classification accuracy (OA = 84.70% and KIA = 0.690), followed by random forest (RF), maximum likelihood algorithm (ML), and logistic regression analysis (LR). However, the ML classifier achieved the highest classification accuracy (OA = 96.04% and KIA = 0.887) in object-based image analysis (OBIA) using only six variables. The contribution of this study is to create a new framework for accurately identifying tea crops in a subtropical region with real-time high-resolution WorldView-2 imagery without field survey, which could further aid agriculture land management and a sustainable agricultural product supply. PMID:27128915

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning with WorldView-2 Pan-Sharpened Imagery for Tea Crop Mapping.

PubMed

Chuang, Yung-Chung Matt; Shiu, Yi-Shiang

2016-04-26

Tea is an important but vulnerable economic crop in East Asia, highly impacted by climate change. This study attempts to interpret tea land use/land cover (LULC) using very high resolution WorldView-2 imagery of central Taiwan with both pixel and object-based approaches. A total of 80 variables derived from each WorldView-2 band with pan-sharpening, standardization, principal components and gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) texture indices transformation, were set as the input variables. For pixel-based image analysis (PBIA), 34 variables were selected, including seven principal components, 21 GLCM texture indices and six original WorldView-2 bands. Results showed that support vector machine (SVM) had the highest tea crop classification accuracy (OA = 84.70% and KIA = 0.690), followed by random forest (RF), maximum likelihood algorithm (ML), and logistic regression analysis (LR). However, the ML classifier achieved the highest classification accuracy (OA = 96.04% and KIA = 0.887) in object-based image analysis (OBIA) using only six variables. The contribution of this study is to create a new framework for accurately identifying tea crops in a subtropical region with real-time high-resolution WorldView-2 imagery without field survey, which could further aid agriculture land management and a sustainable agricultural product supply.

Spatial design and strength of spatial signal: Effects on covariance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.

2007-01-01

In a spatial regression context, scientists are often interested in a physical interpretation of components of the parametric covariance function. For example, spatial covariance parameter estimates in ecological settings have been interpreted to describe spatial heterogeneity or “patchiness” in a landscape that cannot be explained by measured covariates. In this article, we investigate the influence of the strength of spatial dependence on maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of covariance parameters in an exponential-with-nugget model, and we also examine these influences under different sampling designs—specifically, lattice designs and more realistic random and cluster designs—at differing intensities of sampling (n=144 and 361). We find that neither ML nor REML estimates perform well when the range parameter and/or the nugget-to-sill ratio is large—ML tends to underestimate the autocorrelation function and REML produces highly variable estimates of the autocorrelation function. The best estimates of both the covariance parameters and the autocorrelation function come under the cluster sampling design and large sample sizes. As a motivating example, we consider a spatial model for stream sulfate concentration.

Maximum likelihood: Extracting unbiased information from complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garlaschelli, Diego; Loffredo, Maria I.

2008-07-01

The choice of free parameters in network models is subjective, since it depends on what topological properties are being monitored. However, we show that the maximum likelihood (ML) principle indicates a unique, statistically rigorous parameter choice, associated with a well-defined topological feature. We then find that, if the ML condition is incompatible with the built-in parameter choice, network models turn out to be intrinsically ill defined or biased. To overcome this problem, we construct a class of safely unbiased models. We also propose an extension of these results that leads to the fascinating possibility to extract, only from topological data, the “hidden variables” underlying network organization, making them “no longer hidden.” We test our method on World Trade Web data, where we recover the empirical gross domestic product using only topological information.

The skewed weak lensing likelihood: why biases arise, despite data and theory being sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellentin, Elena; Heymans, Catherine; Harnois-Déraps, Joachim

2018-07-01

We derive the essentials of the skewed weak lensing likelihood via a simple hierarchical forward model. Our likelihood passes four objective and cosmology-independent tests which a standard Gaussian likelihood fails. We demonstrate that sound weak lensing data are naturally biased low, since they are drawn from a skewed distribution. This occurs already in the framework of Lambda cold dark matter. Mathematically, the biases arise because noisy two-point functions follow skewed distributions. This form of bias is already known from cosmic microwave background analyses, where the low multipoles have asymmetric error bars. Weak lensing is more strongly affected by this asymmetry as galaxies form a discrete set of shear tracer particles, in contrast to a smooth shear field. We demonstrate that the biases can be up to 30 per cent of the standard deviation per data point, dependent on the properties of the weak lensing survey and the employed filter function. Our likelihood provides a versatile framework with which to address this bias in future weak lensing analyses.

The skewed weak lensing likelihood: why biases arise, despite data and theory being sound.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellentin, Elena; Heymans, Catherine; Harnois-Déraps, Joachim

2018-04-01

We derive the essentials of the skewed weak lensing likelihood via a simple Hierarchical Forward Model. Our likelihood passes four objective and cosmology-independent tests which a standard Gaussian likelihood fails. We demonstrate that sound weak lensing data are naturally biased low, since they are drawn from a skewed distribution. This occurs already in the framework of ΛCDM. Mathematically, the biases arise because noisy two-point functions follow skewed distributions. This form of bias is already known from CMB analyses, where the low multipoles have asymmetric error bars. Weak lensing is more strongly affected by this asymmetry as galaxies form a discrete set of shear tracer particles, in contrast to a smooth shear field. We demonstrate that the biases can be up to 30% of the standard deviation per data point, dependent on the properties of the weak lensing survey and the employed filter function. Our likelihood provides a versatile framework with which to address this bias in future weak lensing analyses.

Nonlinear finite element model updating for damage identification of civil structures using batch Bayesian estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.; de Callafon, Raymond A.

2017-02-01

This paper presents a framework for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage identification of civil structures. This framework integrates advanced mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) modeling and analysis techniques with a batch Bayesian estimation approach to estimate time-invariant model parameters used in the FE model of the structure of interest. The framework uses input excitation and dynamic response of the structure and updates a nonlinear FE model of the structure to minimize the discrepancies between predicted and measured response time histories. The updated FE model can then be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and quantify the state of damage and predict the remaining useful life of the structure. As opposed to recursive estimation methods, in the batch Bayesian estimation approach, the entire time history of the input excitation and output response of the structure are used as a batch of data to estimate the FE model parameters through a number of iterations. In the case of non-informative prior, the batch Bayesian method leads to an extended maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method to estimate jointly time-invariant model parameters and the measurement noise amplitude. The extended ML estimation problem is solved efficiently using a gradient-based interior-point optimization algorithm. Gradient-based optimization algorithms require the FE response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters to be identified. The FE response sensitivities are computed accurately and efficiently using the direct differentiation method (DDM). The estimation uncertainties are evaluated based on the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) theorem by computing the exact Fisher Information matrix using the FE response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters. The accuracy of the proposed uncertainty quantification approach is verified using a sampling approach based on the unscented transformation. Two validation studies, based on realistic structural FE models of a bridge pier and a moment resisting steel frame, are performed to validate the performance and accuracy of the presented nonlinear FE model updating approach and demonstrate its application to SHM. These validation studies show the excellent performance of the proposed framework for SHM and damage identification even in the presence of high measurement noise and/or way-out initial estimates of the model parameters. Furthermore, the detrimental effects of the input measurement noise on the performance of the proposed framework are illustrated and quantified through one of the validation studies.

Characterization of Chronic Aortic and Mitral Regurgitation Undergoing Valve Surgery Using Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance.

PubMed

Polte, Christian L; Gao, Sinsia A; Johnsson, Åse A; Lagerstrand, Kerstin M; Bech-Hanssen, Odd

2017-06-15

Grading of chronic aortic regurgitation (AR) and mitral regurgitation (MR) by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is currently based on thresholds, which are neither modality nor quantification method specific. Accordingly, this study sought to identify CMR-specific and quantification method-specific thresholds for regurgitant volumes (RVols), RVol indexes, and regurgitant fractions (RFs), which denote severe chronic AR or MR with an indication for surgery. The study comprised patients with moderate and severe chronic AR (n = 38) and MR (n = 40). Echocardiography and CMR was performed at baseline and in all operated AR/MR patients (n = 23/25) 10 ± 1 months after surgery. CMR quantification of AR: direct (aortic flow) and indirect method (left ventricular stroke volume [LVSV] - pulmonary stroke volume [PuSV]); MR: 2 indirect methods (LVSV - aortic forward flow [AoFF]; mitral inflow [MiIF] - AoFF). All operated patients had severe regurgitation and benefited from surgery, indicated by a significant postsurgical reduction in end-diastolic volume index and improvement or relief of symptoms. The discriminatory ability between moderate and severe AR was strong for RVol >40 ml, RVol index >20 ml/m 2 , and RF >30% (direct method) and RVol >62 ml, RVol index >31 ml/m 2 , and RF >36% (LVSV-PuSV) with a negative likelihood ratio ≤ 0.2. In MR, the discriminatory ability was very strong for RVol >64 ml, RVol index >32 ml/m 2 , and RF >41% (LVSV-AoFF) and RVol >40 ml, RVol index >20 ml/m 2 , and RF >30% (MiIF-AoFF) with a negative likelihood ratio < 0.1. In conclusion, CMR grading of chronic AR and MR should be based on modality-specific and quantification method-specific thresholds, as they differ largely from recognized guideline criteria, to assure appropriate clinical decision-making and timing of surgery. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

8D likelihood effective Higgs couplings extraction framework in h → 4ℓ

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yi; Di Marco, Emanuele; Lykken, Joe; ...

2015-01-23

We present an overview of a comprehensive analysis framework aimed at performing direct extraction of all possible effective Higgs couplings to neutral electroweak gauge bosons in the decay to electrons and muons, the so called ‘golden channel’. Our framework is based primarily on a maximum likelihood method constructed from analytic expressions of the fully differential cross sections for h → 4l and for the dominant irreduciblemore » $$ q\\overline{q} $$ → 4l background, where 4l = 2e2μ, 4e, 4μ. Detector effects are included by an explicit convolution of these analytic expressions with the appropriate transfer function over all center of mass variables. Utilizing the full set of observables, we construct an unbinned detector-level likelihood which is continuous in the effective couplings. We consider possible ZZ, Zγ, and γγ couplings simultaneously, allowing for general CP odd/even admixtures. A broad overview is given of how the convolution is performed and we discuss the principles and theoretical basis of the framework. This framework can be used in a variety of ways to study Higgs couplings in the golden channel using data obtained at the LHC and other future colliders.« less

A new maximum-likelihood change estimator for two-pass SAR coherent change detection

DOE PAGES

Wahl, Daniel E.; Yocky, David A.; Jakowatz, Jr., Charles V.; ...

2016-01-11

In previous research, two-pass repeat-geometry synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD) predominantly utilized the sample degree of coherence as a measure of the temporal change occurring between two complex-valued image collects. Previous coherence-based CCD approaches tend to show temporal change when there is none in areas of the image that have a low clutter-to-noise power ratio. Instead of employing the sample coherence magnitude as a change metric, in this paper, we derive a new maximum-likelihood (ML) temporal change estimate—the complex reflectance change detection (CRCD) metric to be used for SAR coherent temporal change detection. The new CRCD estimatormore » is a surprisingly simple expression, easy to implement, and optimal in the ML sense. As a result, this new estimate produces improved results in the coherent pair collects that we have tested.« less

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erkmen, Baris I.; Moision, Bruce E.

2010-01-01

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

dPIRPLE: a joint estimation framework for deformable registration and penalized-likelihood CT image reconstruction using prior images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dang, H.; Wang, A. S.; Sussman, Marc S.; Siewerdsen, J. H.; Stayman, J. W.

2014-09-01

Sequential imaging studies are conducted in many clinical scenarios. Prior images from previous studies contain a great deal of patient-specific anatomical information and can be used in conjunction with subsequent imaging acquisitions to maintain image quality while enabling radiation dose reduction (e.g., through sparse angular sampling, reduction in fluence, etc). However, patient motion between images in such sequences results in misregistration between the prior image and current anatomy. Existing prior-image-based approaches often include only a simple rigid registration step that can be insufficient for capturing complex anatomical motion, introducing detrimental effects in subsequent image reconstruction. In this work, we propose a joint framework that estimates the 3D deformation between an unregistered prior image and the current anatomy (based on a subsequent data acquisition) and reconstructs the current anatomical image using a model-based reconstruction approach that includes regularization based on the deformed prior image. This framework is referred to as deformable prior image registration, penalized-likelihood estimation (dPIRPLE). Central to this framework is the inclusion of a 3D B-spline-based free-form-deformation model into the joint registration-reconstruction objective function. The proposed framework is solved using a maximization strategy whereby alternating updates to the registration parameters and image estimates are applied allowing for improvements in both the registration and reconstruction throughout the optimization process. Cadaver experiments were conducted on a cone-beam CT testbench emulating a lung nodule surveillance scenario. Superior reconstruction accuracy and image quality were demonstrated using the dPIRPLE algorithm as compared to more traditional reconstruction methods including filtered backprojection, penalized-likelihood estimation (PLE), prior image penalized-likelihood estimation (PIPLE) without registration, and prior image penalized-likelihood estimation with rigid registration of a prior image (PIRPLE) over a wide range of sampling sparsity and exposure levels.

Impact of pixel-based machine-learning techniques on automated frameworks for delineation of gross tumor volume regions for stereotactic body radiation therapy.

PubMed

Kawata, Yasuo; Arimura, Hidetaka; Ikushima, Koujirou; Jin, Ze; Morita, Kento; Tokunaga, Chiaki; Yabu-Uchi, Hidetake; Shioyama, Yoshiyuki; Sasaki, Tomonari; Honda, Hiroshi; Sasaki, Masayuki

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of pixel-based machine learning (ML) techniques, i.e., fuzzy-c-means clustering method (FCM), and the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), on an automated framework for delineation of gross tumor volume (GTV) regions of lung cancer for stereotactic body radiation therapy. The morphological and metabolic features for GTV regions, which were determined based on the knowledge of radiation oncologists, were fed on a pixel-by-pixel basis into the respective FCM, ANN, and SVM ML techniques. Then, the ML techniques were incorporated into the automated delineation framework of GTVs followed by an optimum contour selection (OCS) method, which we proposed in a previous study. The three-ML-based frameworks were evaluated for 16 lung cancer cases (six solid, four ground glass opacity (GGO), six part-solid GGO) with the datasets of planning computed tomography (CT) and 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/CT images using the three-dimensional Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). DSC denotes the degree of region similarity between the GTVs contoured by radiation oncologists and those estimated using the automated framework. The FCM-based framework achieved the highest DSCs of 0.79±0.06, whereas DSCs of the ANN-based and SVM-based frameworks were 0.76±0.14 and 0.73±0.14, respectively. The FCM-based framework provided the highest segmentation accuracy and precision without a learning process (lowest calculation cost). Therefore, the FCM-based framework can be useful for delineation of tumor regions in practical treatment planning. Copyright © 2017 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Software-Based Real-Time Acquisition and Processing of PET Detector Raw Data.

PubMed

Goldschmidt, Benjamin; Schug, David; Lerche, Christoph W; Salomon, André; Gebhardt, Pierre; Weissler, Bjoern; Wehner, Jakob; Dueppenbecker, Peter M; Kiessling, Fabian; Schulz, Volkmar

2016-02-01

In modern positron emission tomography (PET) readout architectures, the position and energy estimation of scintillation events (singles) and the detection of coincident events (coincidences) are typically carried out on highly integrated, programmable printed circuit boards. The implementation of advanced singles and coincidence processing (SCP) algorithms for these architectures is often limited by the strict constraints of hardware-based data processing. In this paper, we present a software-based data acquisition and processing architecture (DAPA) that offers a high degree of flexibility for advanced SCP algorithms through relaxed real-time constraints and an easily extendible data processing framework. The DAPA is designed to acquire detector raw data from independent (but synchronized) detector modules and process the data for singles and coincidences in real-time using a center-of-gravity (COG)-based, a least-squares (LS)-based, or a maximum-likelihood (ML)-based crystal position and energy estimation approach (CPEEA). To test the DAPA, we adapted it to a preclinical PET detector that outputs detector raw data from 60 independent digital silicon photomultiplier (dSiPM)-based detector stacks and evaluated it with a [(18)F]-fluorodeoxyglucose-filled hot-rod phantom. The DAPA is highly reliable with less than 0.1% of all detector raw data lost or corrupted. For high validation thresholds (37.1 ± 12.8 photons per pixel) of the dSiPM detector tiles, the DAPA is real time capable up to 55 MBq for the COG-based CPEEA, up to 31 MBq for the LS-based CPEEA, and up to 28 MBq for the ML-based CPEEA. Compared to the COG-based CPEEA, the rods in the image reconstruction of the hot-rod phantom are only slightly better separable and less blurred for the LS- and ML-based CPEEA. While the coincidence time resolution (∼ 500 ps) and energy resolution (∼12.3%) are comparable for all three CPEEA, the system sensitivity is up to 2.5 × higher for the LS- and ML-based CPEEA.

Unified framework to evaluate panmixia and migration direction among multiple sampling locations.

PubMed

Beerli, Peter; Palczewski, Michal

2010-05-01

For many biological investigations, groups of individuals are genetically sampled from several geographic locations. These sampling locations often do not reflect the genetic population structure. We describe a framework using marginal likelihoods to compare and order structured population models, such as testing whether the sampling locations belong to the same randomly mating population or comparing unidirectional and multidirectional gene flow models. In the context of inferences employing Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the accuracy of the marginal likelihoods depends heavily on the approximation method used to calculate the marginal likelihood. Two methods, modified thermodynamic integration and a stabilized harmonic mean estimator, are compared. With finite Markov chain Monte Carlo run lengths, the harmonic mean estimator may not be consistent. Thermodynamic integration, in contrast, delivers considerably better estimates of the marginal likelihood. The choice of prior distributions does not influence the order and choice of the better models when the marginal likelihood is estimated using thermodynamic integration, whereas with the harmonic mean estimator the influence of the prior is pronounced and the order of the models changes. The approximation of marginal likelihood using thermodynamic integration in MIGRATE allows the evaluation of complex population genetic models, not only of whether sampling locations belong to a single panmictic population, but also of competing complex structured population models.

Coalescent: an open-science framework for importance sampling in coalescent theory.

PubMed

Tewari, Susanta; Spouge, John L

2015-01-01

Background. In coalescent theory, computer programs often use importance sampling to calculate likelihoods and other statistical quantities. An importance sampling scheme can exploit human intuition to improve statistical efficiency of computations, but unfortunately, in the absence of general computer frameworks on importance sampling, researchers often struggle to translate new sampling schemes computationally or benchmark against different schemes, in a manner that is reliable and maintainable. Moreover, most studies use computer programs lacking a convenient user interface or the flexibility to meet the current demands of open science. In particular, current computer frameworks can only evaluate the efficiency of a single importance sampling scheme or compare the efficiencies of different schemes in an ad hoc manner. Results. We have designed a general framework (http://coalescent.sourceforge.net; language: Java; License: GPLv3) for importance sampling that computes likelihoods under the standard neutral coalescent model of a single, well-mixed population of constant size over time following infinite sites model of mutation. The framework models the necessary core concepts, comes integrated with several data sets of varying size, implements the standard competing proposals, and integrates tightly with our previous framework for calculating exact probabilities. For a given dataset, it computes the likelihood and provides the maximum likelihood estimate of the mutation parameter. Well-known benchmarks in the coalescent literature validate the accuracy of the framework. The framework provides an intuitive user interface with minimal clutter. For performance, the framework switches automatically to modern multicore hardware, if available. It runs on three major platforms (Windows, Mac and Linux). Extensive tests and coverage make the framework reliable and maintainable. Conclusions. In coalescent theory, many studies of computational efficiency consider only effective sample size. Here, we evaluate proposals in the coalescent literature, to discover that the order of efficiency among the three importance sampling schemes changes when one considers running time as well as effective sample size. We also describe a computational technique called "just-in-time delegation" available to improve the trade-off between running time and precision by constructing improved importance sampling schemes from existing ones. Thus, our systems approach is a potential solution to the "2(8) programs problem" highlighted by Felsenstein, because it provides the flexibility to include or exclude various features of similar coalescent models or importance sampling schemes.

Molecular Phylogenetics and Systematics of the Bivalve Family Ostreidae Based on rRNA Sequence-Structure Models and Multilocus Species Tree

PubMed Central

Salvi, Daniele; Macali, Armando; Mariottini, Paolo

2014-01-01

The bivalve family Ostreidae has a worldwide distribution and includes species of high economic importance. Phylogenetics and systematic of oysters based on morphology have proved difficult because of their high phenotypic plasticity. In this study we explore the phylogenetic information of the DNA sequence and secondary structure of the nuclear, fast-evolving, ITS2 rRNA and the mitochondrial 16S rRNA genes from the Ostreidae and we implemented a multi-locus framework based on four loci for oyster phylogenetics and systematics. Sequence-structure rRNA models aid sequence alignment and improved accuracy and nodal support of phylogenetic trees. In agreement with previous molecular studies, our phylogenetic results indicate that none of the currently recognized subfamilies, Crassostreinae, Ostreinae, and Lophinae, is monophyletic. Single gene trees based on Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BA) methods and on sequence-structure ML were congruent with multilocus trees based on a concatenated (ML and BA) and coalescent based (BA) approaches and consistently supported three main clades: (i) Crassostrea, (ii) Saccostrea, and (iii) an Ostreinae-Lophinae lineage. Therefore, the subfamily Crassotreinae (including Crassostrea), Saccostreinae subfam. nov. (including Saccostrea and tentatively Striostrea) and Ostreinae (including Ostreinae and Lophinae taxa) are recognized. Based on phylogenetic and biogeographical evidence the Asian species of Crassostrea from the Pacific Ocean are assigned to Magallana gen. nov., whereas an integrative taxonomic revision is required for the genera Ostrea and Dendostrea. This study pointed out the suitability of the ITS2 marker for DNA barcoding of oyster and the relevance of using sequence-structure rRNA models and features of the ITS2 folding in molecular phylogenetics and taxonomy. The multilocus approach allowed inferring a robust phylogeny of Ostreidae providing a broad molecular perspective on their systematics. PMID:25250663

Molecular phylogenetics and systematics of the bivalve family Ostreidae based on rRNA sequence-structure models and multilocus species tree.

PubMed

Salvi, Daniele; Macali, Armando; Mariottini, Paolo

2014-01-01

The bivalve family Ostreidae has a worldwide distribution and includes species of high economic importance. Phylogenetics and systematic of oysters based on morphology have proved difficult because of their high phenotypic plasticity. In this study we explore the phylogenetic information of the DNA sequence and secondary structure of the nuclear, fast-evolving, ITS2 rRNA and the mitochondrial 16S rRNA genes from the Ostreidae and we implemented a multi-locus framework based on four loci for oyster phylogenetics and systematics. Sequence-structure rRNA models aid sequence alignment and improved accuracy and nodal support of phylogenetic trees. In agreement with previous molecular studies, our phylogenetic results indicate that none of the currently recognized subfamilies, Crassostreinae, Ostreinae, and Lophinae, is monophyletic. Single gene trees based on Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BA) methods and on sequence-structure ML were congruent with multilocus trees based on a concatenated (ML and BA) and coalescent based (BA) approaches and consistently supported three main clades: (i) Crassostrea, (ii) Saccostrea, and (iii) an Ostreinae-Lophinae lineage. Therefore, the subfamily Crassostreinae (including Crassostrea), Saccostreinae subfam. nov. (including Saccostrea and tentatively Striostrea) and Ostreinae (including Ostreinae and Lophinae taxa) are recognized [corrected]. Based on phylogenetic and biogeographical evidence the Asian species of Crassostrea from the Pacific Ocean are assigned to Magallana gen. nov., whereas an integrative taxonomic revision is required for the genera Ostrea and Dendostrea. This study pointed out the suitability of the ITS2 marker for DNA barcoding of oyster and the relevance of using sequence-structure rRNA models and features of the ITS2 folding in molecular phylogenetics and taxonomy. The multilocus approach allowed inferring a robust phylogeny of Ostreidae providing a broad molecular perspective on their systematics.

Evaluation of dynamic row-action maximum likelihood algorithm reconstruction for quantitative 15O brain PET.

PubMed

Ibaraki, Masanobu; Sato, Kaoru; Mizuta, Tetsuro; Kitamura, Keishi; Miura, Shuichi; Sugawara, Shigeki; Shinohara, Yuki; Kinoshita, Toshibumi

2009-09-01

A modified version of row-action maximum likelihood algorithm (RAMLA) using a 'subset-dependent' relaxation parameter for noise suppression, or dynamic RAMLA (DRAMA), has been proposed. The aim of this study was to assess the capability of DRAMA reconstruction for quantitative (15)O brain positron emission tomography (PET). Seventeen healthy volunteers were studied using a 3D PET scanner. The PET study included 3 sequential PET scans for C(15)O, (15)O(2) and H (2) (15) O. First, the number of main iterations (N (it)) in DRAMA was optimized in relation to image convergence and statistical image noise. To estimate the statistical variance of reconstructed images on a pixel-by-pixel basis, a sinogram bootstrap method was applied using list-mode PET data. Once the optimal N (it) was determined, statistical image noise and quantitative parameters, i.e., cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO(2)) and oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) were compared between DRAMA and conventional FBP. DRAMA images were post-filtered so that their spatial resolutions were matched with FBP images with a 6-mm FWHM Gaussian filter. Based on the count recovery data, N (it) = 3 was determined as an optimal parameter for (15)O PET data. The sinogram bootstrap analysis revealed that DRAMA reconstruction resulted in less statistical noise, especially in a low-activity region compared to FBP. Agreement of quantitative values between FBP and DRAMA was excellent. For DRAMA images, average gray matter values of CBF, CBV, CMRO(2) and OEF were 46.1 +/- 4.5 (mL/100 mL/min), 3.35 +/- 0.40 (mL/100 mL), 3.42 +/- 0.35 (mL/100 mL/min) and 42.1 +/- 3.8 (%), respectively. These values were comparable to corresponding values with FBP images: 46.6 +/- 4.6 (mL/100 mL/min), 3.34 +/- 0.39 (mL/100 mL), 3.48 +/- 0.34 (mL/100 mL/min) and 42.4 +/- 3.8 (%), respectively. DRAMA reconstruction is applicable to quantitative (15)O PET study and is superior to conventional FBP in terms of image quality.

Applying six classifiers to airborne hyperspectral imagery for detecting giant reed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study evaluated and compared six different image classifiers, including minimum distance (MD), Mahalanobis distance (MAHD), maximum likelihood (ML), spectral angle mapper (SAM), mixture tuned matched filtering (MTMF) and support vector machine (SVM), for detecting and mapping giant reed (Arundo...

ReplacementMatrix: a web server for maximum-likelihood estimation of amino acid replacement rate matrices.

PubMed

Dang, Cuong Cao; Lefort, Vincent; Le, Vinh Sy; Le, Quang Si; Gascuel, Olivier

2011-10-01

Amino acid replacement rate matrices are an essential basis of protein studies (e.g. in phylogenetics and alignment). A number of general purpose matrices have been proposed (e.g. JTT, WAG, LG) since the seminal work of Margaret Dayhoff and co-workers. However, it has been shown that matrices specific to certain protein groups (e.g. mitochondrial) or life domains (e.g. viruses) differ significantly from general average matrices, and thus perform better when applied to the data to which they are dedicated. This Web server implements the maximum-likelihood estimation procedure that was used to estimate LG, and provides a number of tools and facilities. Users upload a set of multiple protein alignments from their domain of interest and receive the resulting matrix by email, along with statistics and comparisons with other matrices. A non-parametric bootstrap is performed optionally to assess the variability of replacement rate estimates. Maximum-likelihood trees, inferred using the estimated rate matrix, are also computed optionally for each input alignment. Finely tuned procedures and up-to-date ML software (PhyML 3.0, XRATE) are combined to perform all these heavy calculations on our clusters. http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/ReplacementMatrix/ olivier.gascuel@lirmm.fr Supplementary data are available at http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/ReplacementMatrix/

Maximum likelihood estimation in calibrating a stereo camera setup.

PubMed

Muijtjens, A M; Roos, J M; Arts, T; Hasman, A

1999-02-01

Motion and deformation of the cardiac wall may be measured by following the positions of implanted radiopaque markers in three dimensions, using two x-ray cameras simultaneously. Regularly, calibration of the position measurement system is obtained by registration of the images of a calibration object, containing 10-20 radiopaque markers at known positions. Unfortunately, an accidental change of the position of a camera after calibration requires complete recalibration. Alternatively, redundant information in the measured image positions of stereo pairs can be used for calibration. Thus, a separate calibration procedure can be avoided. In the current study a model is developed that describes the geometry of the camera setup by five dimensionless parameters. Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimates of these parameters were obtained in an error analysis. It is shown that the ML estimates can be found by application of a nonlinear least squares procedure. Compared to the standard unweighted least squares procedure, the ML method resulted in more accurate estimates without noticeable bias. The accuracy of the ML method was investigated in relation to the object aperture. The reconstruction problem appeared well conditioned as long as the object aperture is larger than 0.1 rad. The angle between the two viewing directions appeared to be the parameter that was most likely to cause major inaccuracies in the reconstruction of the 3-D positions of the markers. Hence, attempts to improve the robustness of the method should primarily focus on reduction of the error in this parameter.

Safety modeling of urban arterials in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wang, Xuesong; Fan, Tianxiang; Chen, Ming; Deng, Bing; Wu, Bing; Tremont, Paul

2015-10-01

Traffic safety on urban arterials is influenced by several key variables including geometric design features, land use, traffic volume, and travel speeds. This paper is an exploratory study of the relationship of these variables to safety. It uses a comparatively new method of measuring speeds by extracting GPS data from taxis operating on Shanghai's urban network. This GPS derived speed data, hereafter called Floating Car Data (FCD) was used to calculate average speeds during peak and off-peak hours, and was acquired from samples of 15,000+ taxis traveling on 176 segments over 18 major arterials in central Shanghai. Geometric design features of these arterials and surrounding land use characteristics were obtained by field investigation, and crash data was obtained from police reports. Bayesian inference using four different models, Poisson-lognormal (PLN), PLN with Maximum Likelihood priors (PLN-ML), hierarchical PLN (HPLN), and HPLN with Maximum Likelihood priors (HPLN-ML), was used to estimate crash frequencies. Results showed the HPLN-ML models had the best goodness-of-fit and efficiency, and models with ML priors yielded estimates with the lowest standard errors. Crash frequencies increased with increases in traffic volume. Higher average speeds were associated with higher crash frequencies during peak periods, but not during off-peak periods. Several geometric design features including average segment length of arterial, number of lanes, presence of non-motorized lanes, number of access points, and commercial land use, were positively related to crash frequencies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic accuracy of a novel software technology for detecting pneumothorax in a porcine model.

PubMed

Summers, Shane M; Chin, Eric J; April, Michael D; Grisell, Ronald D; Lospinoso, Joshua A; Kheirabadi, Bijan S; Salinas, Jose; Blackbourne, Lorne H

2017-09-01

Our objective was to measure the diagnostic accuracy of a novel software technology to detect pneumothorax on Brightness (B) mode and Motion (M) mode ultrasonography. Ultrasonography fellowship-trained emergency physicians performed thoracic ultrasonography at baseline and after surgically creating a pneumothorax in eight intubated, spontaneously breathing porcine subjects. Prior to pneumothorax induction, we captured sagittal M-mode still images and B-mode videos of each intercostal space with a linear array transducer at 4cm of depth. After collection of baseline images, we placed a chest tube, injected air into the pleural space in 250mL increments, and repeated the ultrasonography for pneumothorax volumes of 250mL, 500mL, 750mL, and 1000mL. We confirmed pneumothorax with intrapleural digital manometry and ultrasound by expert sonographers. We exported collected images for interpretation by the software. We treated each individual scan as a single test for interpretation by the software. Excluding indeterminate results, we collected 338M-mode images for which the software demonstrated a sensitivity of 98% (95% confidence interval [CI] 92-99%), specificity of 95% (95% CI 86-99), positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 21.6 (95% CI 7.1-65), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.02 (95% CI 0.008-0.046). Among 364 B-mode videos, the software demonstrated a sensitivity of 86% (95% CI 81-90%), specificity of 85% (81-91%), LR+ of 5.7 (95% CI 3.2-10.2), and LR- of 0.17 (95% CI 0.12-0.22). This novel technology has potential as a useful adjunct to diagnose pneumothorax on thoracic ultrasonography. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Comparing methods of analysing datasets with small clusters: case studies using four paediatric datasets.

PubMed

Marston, Louise; Peacock, Janet L; Yu, Keming; Brocklehurst, Peter; Calvert, Sandra A; Greenough, Anne; Marlow, Neil

2009-07-01

Studies of prematurely born infants contain a relatively large percentage of multiple births, so the resulting data have a hierarchical structure with small clusters of size 1, 2 or 3. Ignoring the clustering may lead to incorrect inferences. The aim of this study was to compare statistical methods which can be used to analyse such data: generalised estimating equations, multilevel models, multiple linear regression and logistic regression. Four datasets which differed in total size and in percentage of multiple births (n = 254, multiple 18%; n = 176, multiple 9%; n = 10 098, multiple 3%; n = 1585, multiple 8%) were analysed. With the continuous outcome, two-level models produced similar results in the larger dataset, while generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GLS 'xtreg' in Stata) and maximum likelihood multilevel modelling (ML MLE 'xtmixed' in Stata) produced divergent estimates using the smaller dataset. For the dichotomous outcome, most methods, except generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GH 'xtlogit' in Stata) gave similar odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals within datasets. For the continuous outcome, our results suggest using multilevel modelling. We conclude that generalised least squares multilevel modelling (ML GLS 'xtreg' in Stata) and maximum likelihood multilevel modelling (ML MLE 'xtmixed' in Stata) should be used with caution when the dataset is small. Where the outcome is dichotomous and there is a relatively large percentage of non-independent data, it is recommended that these are accounted for in analyses using logistic regression with adjusted standard errors or multilevel modelling. If, however, the dataset has a small percentage of clusters greater than size 1 (e.g. a population dataset of children where there are few multiples) there appears to be less need to adjust for clustering.

SATe-II: very fast and accurate simultaneous estimation of multiple sequence alignments and phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Liu, Kevin; Warnow, Tandy J; Holder, Mark T; Nelesen, Serita M; Yu, Jiaye; Stamatakis, Alexandros P; Linder, C Randal

2012-01-01

Highly accurate estimation of phylogenetic trees for large data sets is difficult, in part because multiple sequence alignments must be accurate for phylogeny estimation methods to be accurate. Coestimation of alignments and trees has been attempted but currently only SATé estimates reasonably accurate trees and alignments for large data sets in practical time frames (Liu K., Raghavan S., Nelesen S., Linder C.R., Warnow T. 2009b. Rapid and accurate large-scale coestimation of sequence alignments and phylogenetic trees. Science. 324:1561-1564). Here, we present a modification to the original SATé algorithm that improves upon SATé (which we now call SATé-I) in terms of speed and of phylogenetic and alignment accuracy. SATé-II uses a different divide-and-conquer strategy than SATé-I and so produces smaller more closely related subsets than SATé-I; as a result, SATé-II produces more accurate alignments and trees, can analyze larger data sets, and runs more efficiently than SATé-I. Generally, SATé is a metamethod that takes an existing multiple sequence alignment method as an input parameter and boosts the quality of that alignment method. SATé-II-boosted alignment methods are significantly more accurate than their unboosted versions, and trees based upon these improved alignments are more accurate than trees based upon the original alignments. Because SATé-I used maximum likelihood (ML) methods that treat gaps as missing data to estimate trees and because we found a correlation between the quality of tree/alignment pairs and ML scores, we explored the degree to which SATé's performance depends on using ML with gaps treated as missing data to determine the best tree/alignment pair. We present two lines of evidence that using ML with gaps treated as missing data to optimize the alignment and tree produces very poor results. First, we show that the optimization problem where a set of unaligned DNA sequences is given and the output is the tree and alignment of those sequences that maximize likelihood under the Jukes-Cantor model is uninformative in the worst possible sense. For all inputs, all trees optimize the likelihood score. Second, we show that a greedy heuristic that uses GTR+Gamma ML to optimize the alignment and the tree can produce very poor alignments and trees. Therefore, the excellent performance of SATé-II and SATé-I is not because ML is used as an optimization criterion for choosing the best tree/alignment pair but rather due to the particular divide-and-conquer realignment techniques employed.

A partial differential equation-based general framework adapted to Rayleigh's, Rician's and Gaussian's distributed noise for restoration and enhancement of magnetic resonance image.

PubMed

Yadav, Ram Bharos; Srivastava, Subodh; Srivastava, Rajeev

2016-01-01

The proposed framework is obtained by casting the noise removal problem into a variational framework. This framework automatically identifies the various types of noise present in the magnetic resonance image and filters them by choosing an appropriate filter. This filter includes two terms: the first term is a data likelihood term and the second term is a prior function. The first term is obtained by minimizing the negative log likelihood of the corresponding probability density functions: Gaussian or Rayleigh or Rician. Further, due to the ill-posedness of the likelihood term, a prior function is needed. This paper examines three partial differential equation based priors which include total variation based prior, anisotropic diffusion based prior, and a complex diffusion (CD) based prior. A regularization parameter is used to balance the trade-off between data fidelity term and prior. The finite difference scheme is used for discretization of the proposed method. The performance analysis and comparative study of the proposed method with other standard methods is presented for brain web dataset at varying noise levels in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio, mean square error, structure similarity index map, and correlation parameter. From the simulation results, it is observed that the proposed framework with CD based prior is performing better in comparison to other priors in consideration.

Phylogenetically marking the limits of the genus Fusarium for post-Article 59 usage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium (Hypocreales, Nectriaceae) is one of the most important and systematically challenging groups of mycotoxigenic, plant pathogenic, and human pathogenic fungi. We conducted maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (B) analyses on partial nucleotide sequences of genes encod...

Application and performance of an ML-EM algorithm in NEXT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simón, A.; Lerche, C.; Monrabal, F.; Gómez-Cadenas, J. J.; Álvarez, V.; Azevedo, C. D. R.; Benlloch-Rodríguez, J. M.; Borges, F. I. G. M.; Botas, A.; Cárcel, S.; Carrión, J. V.; Cebrián, S.; Conde, C. A. N.; Díaz, J.; Diesburg, M.; Escada, J.; Esteve, R.; Felkai, R.; Fernandes, L. M. P.; Ferrario, P.; Ferreira, A. L.; Freitas, E. D. C.; Goldschmidt, A.; González-Díaz, D.; Gutiérrez, R. M.; Hauptman, J.; Henriques, C. A. O.; Hernandez, A. I.; Hernando Morata, J. A.; Herrero, V.; Jones, B. J. P.; Labarga, L.; Laing, A.; Lebrun, P.; Liubarsky, I.; López-March, N.; Losada, M.; Martín-Albo, J.; Martínez-Lema, G.; Martínez, A.; McDonald, A. D.; Monteiro, C. M. B.; Mora, F. J.; Moutinho, L. M.; Muñoz Vidal, J.; Musti, M.; Nebot-Guinot, M.; Novella, P.; Nygren, D. R.; Palmeiro, B.; Para, A.; Pérez, J.; Querol, M.; Renner, J.; Ripoll, L.; Rodríguez, J.; Rogers, L.; Santos, F. P.; dos Santos, J. M. F.; Sofka, C.; Sorel, M.; Stiegler, T.; Toledo, J. F.; Torrent, J.; Tsamalaidze, Z.; Veloso, J. F. C. A.; Webb, R.; White, J. T.; Yahlali, N.

2017-08-01

The goal of the NEXT experiment is the observation of neutrinoless double beta decay in 136Xe using a gaseous xenon TPC with electroluminescent amplification and specialized photodetector arrays for calorimetry and tracking. The NEXT Collaboration is exploring a number of reconstruction algorithms to exploit the full potential of the detector. This paper describes one of them: the Maximum Likelihood Expectation Maximization (ML-EM) method, a generic iterative algorithm to find maximum-likelihood estimates of parameters that has been applied to solve many different types of complex inverse problems. In particular, we discuss a bi-dimensional version of the method in which the photosensor signals integrated over time are used to reconstruct a transverse projection of the event. First results show that, when applied to detector simulation data, the algorithm achieves nearly optimal energy resolution (better than 0.5% FWHM at the Q value of 136Xe) for events distributed over the full active volume of the TPC.

Cramer-Rao bound analysis of wideband source localization and DOA estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yip, Lean; Chen, Joe C.; Hudson, Ralph E.; Yao, Kung

2002-12-01

In this paper, we derive the Cramér-Rao Bound (CRB) for wideband source localization and DOA estimation. The resulting CRB formula can be decomposed into two terms: one that depends on the signal characteristic and one that depends on the array geometry. For a uniformly spaced circular array (UCA), a concise analytical form of the CRB can be given by using some algebraic approximation. We further define a DOA beamwidth based on the resulting CRB formula. The DOA beamwidth can be used to design the sampling angular spacing for the Maximum-likelihood (ML) algorithm. For a randomly distributed array, we use an elliptical model to determine the largest and smallest effective beamwidth. The effective beamwidth and the CRB analysis of source localization allow us to design an efficient algorithm for the ML estimator. Finally, our simulation results of the Approximated Maximum Likelihood (AML) algorithm are demonstrated to match well to the CRB analysis at high SNR.

Ancestral sequence reconstruction in primate mitochondrial DNA: compositional bias and effect on functional inference.

PubMed

Krishnan, Neeraja M; Seligmann, Hervé; Stewart, Caro-Beth; De Koning, A P Jason; Pollock, David D

2004-10-01

Reconstruction of ancestral DNA and amino acid sequences is an important means of inferring information about past evolutionary events. Such reconstructions suggest changes in molecular function and evolutionary processes over the course of evolution and are used to infer adaptation and convergence. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally thought to provide relatively accurate reconstructed sequences compared to parsimony, but both methods lead to the inference of multiple directional changes in nucleotide frequencies in primate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To better understand this surprising result, as well as to better understand how parsimony and ML differ, we constructed a series of computationally simple "conditional pathway" methods that differed in the number of substitutions allowed per site along each branch, and we also evaluated the entire Bayesian posterior frequency distribution of reconstructed ancestral states. We analyzed primate mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt-b) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes and found that ML reconstructs ancestral frequencies that are often more different from tip sequences than are parsimony reconstructions. In contrast, frequency reconstructions based on the posterior ensemble more closely resemble extant nucleotide frequencies. Simulations indicate that these differences in ancestral sequence inference are probably due to deterministic bias caused by high uncertainty in the optimization-based ancestral reconstruction methods (parsimony, ML, Bayesian maximum a posteriori). In contrast, ancestral nucleotide frequencies based on an average of the Bayesian set of credible ancestral sequences are much less biased. The methods involving simpler conditional pathway calculations have slightly reduced likelihood values compared to full likelihood calculations, but they can provide fairly unbiased nucleotide reconstructions and may be useful in more complex phylogenetic analyses than considered here due to their speed and flexibility. To determine whether biased reconstructions using optimization methods might affect inferences of functional properties, ancestral primate mitochondrial tRNA sequences were inferred and helix-forming propensities for conserved pairs were evaluated in silico. For ambiguously reconstructed nucleotides at sites with high base composition variability, ancestral tRNA sequences from Bayesian analyses were more compatible with canonical base pairing than were those inferred by other methods. Thus, nucleotide bias in reconstructed sequences apparently can lead to serious bias and inaccuracies in functional predictions.

Stable Atlas-based Mapped Prior (STAMP) machine-learning segmentation for multicenter large-scale MRI data.

PubMed

Kim, Eun Young; Magnotta, Vincent A; Liu, Dawei; Johnson, Hans J

2014-09-01

Machine learning (ML)-based segmentation methods are a common technique in the medical image processing field. In spite of numerous research groups that have investigated ML-based segmentation frameworks, there remains unanswered aspects of performance variability for the choice of two key components: ML algorithm and intensity normalization. This investigation reveals that the choice of those elements plays a major part in determining segmentation accuracy and generalizability. The approach we have used in this study aims to evaluate relative benefits of the two elements within a subcortical MRI segmentation framework. Experiments were conducted to contrast eight machine-learning algorithm configurations and 11 normalization strategies for our brain MR segmentation framework. For the intensity normalization, a Stable Atlas-based Mapped Prior (STAMP) was utilized to take better account of contrast along boundaries of structures. Comparing eight machine learning algorithms on down-sampled segmentation MR data, it was obvious that a significant improvement was obtained using ensemble-based ML algorithms (i.e., random forest) or ANN algorithms. Further investigation between these two algorithms also revealed that the random forest results provided exceptionally good agreement with manual delineations by experts. Additional experiments showed that the effect of STAMP-based intensity normalization also improved the robustness of segmentation for multicenter data sets. The constructed framework obtained good multicenter reliability and was successfully applied on a large multicenter MR data set (n>3000). Less than 10% of automated segmentations were recommended for minimal expert intervention. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using the ML-based segmentation tools for processing large amount of multicenter MR images. We demonstrated dramatically different result profiles in segmentation accuracy according to the choice of ML algorithm and intensity normalization chosen. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Local Influence and Robust Procedures for Mediation Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zu, Jiyun; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2010-01-01

Existing studies of mediation models have been limited to normal-theory maximum likelihood (ML). Because real data in the social and behavioral sciences are seldom normally distributed and often contain outliers, classical methods generally lead to inefficient or biased parameter estimates. Consequently, the conclusions from a mediation analysis…

A United States national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; Barbara S. Crane; William W. Hargrove

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of several threats that will increase the likelihood that forest tree species could experience population-level extirpation or species-level extinction. Scientists and managers from throughout the United States Forest Service have cooperated to develop a framework for conservation priority-setting assessments of forest tree species. This framework...

Factors Influencing the Likelihood of Overeducation: A Bivariate Probit with Sample Selection Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubb, Stephen

2014-01-01

Contrary to expectations, the likelihood of overeducation is shown to be inversely related to unemployment rates when not control for selectivity. Furthermore, incidence data show that overeducation is more common among men than women and among Whites than Blacks. At issue is selectivity: employment must be selected for overeducation to occur.…

Automatic segmentation of fibroglandular tissue in breast MRI using anatomy-driven three-dimensional spatial context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Dong; Weinstein, Susan; Hsieh, Meng-Kang; Pantalone, Lauren; Kontos, Despina

2018-03-01

The relative amount of fibroglandular tissue (FGT) in the breast has been shown to be a risk factor for breast cancer. However, automatic segmentation of FGT in breast MRI is challenging due mainly to its wide variation in anatomy (e.g., amount, location and pattern, etc.), and various imaging artifacts especially the prevalent bias-field artifact. Motivated by a previous work demonstrating improved FGT segmentation with 2-D a priori likelihood atlas, we propose a machine learning-based framework using 3-D FGT context. The framework uses features specifically defined with respect to the breast anatomy to capture spatially varying likelihood of FGT, and allows (a) intuitive standardization across breasts of different sizes and shapes, and (b) easy incorporation of additional information helpful to the segmentation (e.g., texture). Extended from the concept of 2-D atlas, our framework not only captures spatial likelihood of FGT in 3-D context, but also broadens its applicability to both sagittal and axial breast MRI rather than being limited to the plane in which the 2-D atlas is constructed. Experimental results showed improved segmentation accuracy over the 2-D atlas method, and demonstrated further improvement by incorporating well-established texture descriptors.

The Limits of Coding with Joint Constraints on Detected and Undetected Error Rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolinar, Sam; Andrews, Kenneth; Pollara, Fabrizio; Divsalar, Dariush

2008-01-01

We develop a remarkably tight upper bound on the performance of a parameterized family of bounded angle maximum-likelihood (BA-ML) incomplete decoders. The new bound for this class of incomplete decoders is calculated from the code's weight enumerator, and is an extension of Poltyrev-type bounds developed for complete ML decoders. This bound can also be applied to bound the average performance of random code ensembles in terms of an ensemble average weight enumerator. We also formulate conditions defining a parameterized family of optimal incomplete decoders, defined to minimize both the total codeword error probability and the undetected error probability for any fixed capability of the decoder to detect errors. We illustrate the gap between optimal and BA-ML incomplete decoding via simulation of a small code.

Hurdle models for multilevel zero-inflated data via h-likelihood.

PubMed

Molas, Marek; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2010-12-30

Count data often exhibit overdispersion. One type of overdispersion arises when there is an excess of zeros in comparison with the standard Poisson distribution. Zero-inflated Poisson and hurdle models have been proposed to perform a valid likelihood-based analysis to account for the surplus of zeros. Further, data often arise in clustered, longitudinal or multiple-membership settings. The proper analysis needs to reflect the design of a study. Typically random effects are used to account for dependencies in the data. We examine the h-likelihood estimation and inference framework for hurdle models with random effects for complex designs. We extend the h-likelihood procedures to fit hurdle models, thereby extending h-likelihood to truncated distributions. Two applications of the methodology are presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Test-Length Correction to the Estimation of Extreme Proficiency Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magis, David; Beland, Sebastien; Raiche, Gilles

2011-01-01

In this study, the estimation of extremely large or extremely small proficiency levels, given the item parameters of a logistic item response model, is investigated. On one hand, the estimation of proficiency levels by maximum likelihood (ML), despite being asymptotically unbiased, may yield infinite estimates. On the other hand, with an…

Weakly Informative Prior for Point Estimation of Covariance Matrices in Hierarchical Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Yeojin; Gelman, Andrew; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Liu, Jingchen; Dorie, Vincent

2015-01-01

When fitting hierarchical regression models, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation has computational (and, for some users, philosophical) advantages compared to full Bayesian inference, but when the number of groups is small, estimates of the covariance matrix (S) of group-level varying coefficients are often degenerate. One can do better, even from…

Comparison of Radio Frequency Distinct Native Attribute and Matched Filtering Techniques for Device Discrimination and Operation Identification

DTIC Science & Technology

identification. URE from ten MSP430F5529 16-bit microcontrollers were analyzed using: 1) RF distinct native attributes (RF-DNA) fingerprints paired with multiple...discriminant analysis/maximum likelihood (MDA/ML) classification, 2) RF-DNA fingerprints paired with generalized relevance learning vector quantized

Phylogenetic analyses of RPB1 and RPB2 support a middle Cretaceous origin for a clade comprising all agriculturally and medically important fusaria

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium (Hypocreales, Nectriaceae) is one of the most economically important and systematically challenging groups of mycotoxigenic phytopathogens and emergent human pathogens. We conducted maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (B) analyses on partial RNA polymerase largest (...

RECTAL-SPECIFIC MICROBICIDE APPLICATOR: EVALUATION AND COMPARISON WITH A VAGINAL APPLICATOR USED RECTALLY

PubMed Central

Carballo-Diéguez, Alex; Giguere, Rebecca; Dolezal, Curtis; Bauermeister, José; Leu, Cheng-Shiun; Valladares, Juan; Rohan, Lisa C.; Anton, Peter A.; Cranston, Ross D.; Febo, Irma; Mayer, Kenneth; McGowan, Ian

2014-01-01

An applicator designed for rectal delivery of microbicides was tested for acceptability by 95 young men who have sex with men, who self-administered 4mL of placebo gel prior to receptive anal intercourse over 90 days. Subsequently, 24 of the participants self-administered rectally 4mL of tenofovir or placebo gel over 7 days using a vaginal applicator, and compared both applicators on a Likert scale of 1–10, with 10 the highest rating. Participants reported high likelihood to use either applicator in the future (mean scores 9.3 and 8.8 respectively, p= ns). Those who tested both liked the vaginal applicator significantly more than the rectal applicator (7.8 vs. 5.2, p=0.003). Improvements in portability, conspicuousness, aesthetics, tip comfort, product assembly and packaging were suggested for both. This rectal-specific applicator was not superior to a vaginal applicator. While likelihood of future use is reportedly high, factors that decrease acceptability may erode product use over time in clinical trials. Further attention is needed to develop user-friendly, quick-acting rectal microbicide delivery systems. PMID:24858481

Quantifying the Strength of General Factors in Psychopathology: A Comparison of CFA with Maximum Likelihood Estimation, BSEM, and ESEM/EFA Bifactor Approaches.

PubMed

Murray, Aja Louise; Booth, Tom; Eisner, Manuel; Obsuth, Ingrid; Ribeaud, Denis

2018-05-22

Whether or not importance should be placed on an all-encompassing general factor of psychopathology (or p factor) in classifying, researching, diagnosing, and treating psychiatric disorders depends (among other issues) on the extent to which comorbidity is symptom-general rather than staying largely within the confines of narrower transdiagnostic factors such as internalizing and externalizing. In this study, we compared three methods of estimating p factor strength. We compared omega hierarchical and explained common variance calculated from confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) bifactor models with maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, from exploratory structural equation modeling/exploratory factor analysis models with a bifactor rotation, and from Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) bifactor models. Our simulation results suggested that BSEM with small variance priors on secondary loadings might be the preferred option. However, CFA with ML also performed well provided secondary loadings were modeled. We provide two empirical examples of applying the three methodologies using a normative sample of youth (z-proso, n = 1,286) and a university counseling sample (n = 359).

Impact of D-Dimer for Prediction of Incident Occult Cancer in Patients with Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism

PubMed Central

Han, Donghee; ó Hartaigh, Bríain; Lee, Ji Hyun; Cho, In-Jeong; Shim, Chi Young; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Hong, Geu-Ru; Ha, Jong-Won; Chung, Namsik

2016-01-01

Background Unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is related to a higher incidence of occult cancer. D-dimer is clinically used for screening VTE, and has often been shown to be present in patients with malignancy. We explored the predictive value of D-dimer for detecting occult cancer in patients with unprovoked VTE. Methods We retrospectively examined data from 824 patients diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary thromboembolism. Of these, 169 (20.5%) patients diagnosed with unprovoked VTE were selected to participate in this study. D-dimer was categorized into three groups as: <2,000, 2,000–4,000, and >4,000 ng/ml. Cox regression analysis was employed to estimate the odds of occult cancer and metastatic state of cancer according to D-dimer categories. Results During a median 5.3 (interquartile range: 3.4–6.7) years of follow-up, 24 (14%) patients with unprovoked VTE were diagnosed with cancer. Of these patients, 16 (67%) were identified as having been diagnosed with metastatic cancer. Log transformed D-dimer levels were significantly higher in those with occult cancer as compared with patients without diagnosis of occult cancer (3.5±0.5 vs. 3.2±0.5, P-value = 0.009, respectively). D-dimer levels >4,000 ng/ml was independently associated with occult cancer (HR: 4.12, 95% CI: 1.54–11.04, P-value = 0.005) when compared with D-dimer levels <2,000 ng/ml, even after adjusting for age, gender, and type of VTE (e.g., deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary thromboembolism). D-dimer levels >4000 ng/ml were also associated with a higher likelihood of metastatic cancer (HR: 9.55, 95% CI: 2.46–37.17, P-value <0.001). Conclusion Elevated D-dimer concentrations >4000 ng/ml are independently associated with the likelihood of occult cancer among patients with unprovoked VTE. PMID:27073982

Impact of D-Dimer for Prediction of Incident Occult Cancer in Patients with Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism.

PubMed

Han, Donghee; ó Hartaigh, Bríain; Lee, Ji Hyun; Cho, In-Jeong; Shim, Chi Young; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Hong, Geu-Ru; Ha, Jong-Won; Chung, Namsik

2016-01-01

Unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is related to a higher incidence of occult cancer. D-dimer is clinically used for screening VTE, and has often been shown to be present in patients with malignancy. We explored the predictive value of D-dimer for detecting occult cancer in patients with unprovoked VTE. We retrospectively examined data from 824 patients diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary thromboembolism. Of these, 169 (20.5%) patients diagnosed with unprovoked VTE were selected to participate in this study. D-dimer was categorized into three groups as: <2,000, 2,000-4,000, and >4,000 ng/ml. Cox regression analysis was employed to estimate the odds of occult cancer and metastatic state of cancer according to D-dimer categories. During a median 5.3 (interquartile range: 3.4-6.7) years of follow-up, 24 (14%) patients with unprovoked VTE were diagnosed with cancer. Of these patients, 16 (67%) were identified as having been diagnosed with metastatic cancer. Log transformed D-dimer levels were significantly higher in those with occult cancer as compared with patients without diagnosis of occult cancer (3.5±0.5 vs. 3.2±0.5, P-value = 0.009, respectively). D-dimer levels >4,000 ng/ml was independently associated with occult cancer (HR: 4.12, 95% CI: 1.54-11.04, P-value = 0.005) when compared with D-dimer levels <2,000 ng/ml, even after adjusting for age, gender, and type of VTE (e.g., deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary thromboembolism). D-dimer levels >4000 ng/ml were also associated with a higher likelihood of metastatic cancer (HR: 9.55, 95% CI: 2.46-37.17, P-value <0.001). Elevated D-dimer concentrations >4000 ng/ml are independently associated with the likelihood of occult cancer among patients with unprovoked VTE.

Field Markup Language: biological field representation in XML.

PubMed

Chang, David; Lovell, Nigel H; Dokos, Socrates

2007-01-01

With an ever increasing number of biological models available on the internet, a standardized modeling framework is required to allow information to be accessed or visualized. Based on the Physiome Modeling Framework, the Field Markup Language (FML) is being developed to describe and exchange field information for biological models. In this paper, we describe the basic features of FML, its supporting application framework and its ability to incorporate CellML models to construct tissue-scale biological models. As a typical application example, we present a spatially-heterogeneous cardiac pacemaker model which utilizes both FML and CellML to describe and solve the underlying equations of electrical activation and propagation.

Perceptual precision of passive body tilt is consistent with statistically optimal cue integration

PubMed Central

Karmali, Faisal; Nicoucar, Keyvan; Merfeld, Daniel M.

2017-01-01

When making perceptual decisions, humans have been shown to optimally integrate independent noisy multisensory information, matching maximum-likelihood (ML) limits. Such ML estimators provide a theoretic limit to perceptual precision (i.e., minimal thresholds). However, how the brain combines two interacting (i.e., not independent) sensory cues remains an open question. To study the precision achieved when combining interacting sensory signals, we measured perceptual roll tilt and roll rotation thresholds between 0 and 5 Hz in six normal human subjects. Primary results show that roll tilt thresholds between 0.2 and 0.5 Hz were significantly lower than predicted by a ML estimator that includes only vestibular contributions that do not interact. In this paper, we show how other cues (e.g., somatosensation) and an internal representation of sensory and body dynamics might independently contribute to the observed performance enhancement. In short, a Kalman filter was combined with an ML estimator to match human performance, whereas the potential contribution of nonvestibular cues was assessed using published bilateral loss patient data. Our results show that a Kalman filter model including previously proven canal-otolith interactions alone (without nonvestibular cues) can explain the observed performance enhancements as can a model that includes nonvestibular contributions. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We found that human whole body self-motion direction-recognition thresholds measured during dynamic roll tilts were significantly lower than those predicted by a conventional maximum-likelihood weighting of the roll angular velocity and quasistatic roll tilt cues. Here, we show that two models can each match this “apparent” better-than-optimal performance: 1) inclusion of a somatosensory contribution and 2) inclusion of a dynamic sensory interaction between canal and otolith cues via a Kalman filter model. PMID:28179477

Estimation of channel parameters and background irradiance for free-space optical link.

PubMed

Khatoon, Afsana; Cowley, William G; Letzepis, Nick; Giggenbach, Dirk

2013-05-10

Free-space optical communication can experience severe fading due to optical scintillation in long-range links. Channel estimation is also corrupted by background and electrical noise. Accurate estimation of channel parameters and scintillation index (SI) depends on perfect removal of background irradiance. In this paper, we propose three different methods, the minimum-value (MV), mean-power (MP), and maximum-likelihood (ML) based methods, to remove the background irradiance from channel samples. The MV and MP methods do not require knowledge of the scintillation distribution. While the ML-based method assumes gamma-gamma scintillation, it can be easily modified to accommodate other distributions. Each estimator's performance is compared using simulation data as well as experimental measurements. The estimators' performance are evaluated from low- to high-SI areas using simulation data as well as experimental trials. The MV and MP methods have much lower complexity than the ML-based method. However, the ML-based method shows better SI and background-irradiance estimation performance.

A quasi-likelihood approach to non-negative matrix factorization

PubMed Central

Devarajan, Karthik; Cheung, Vincent C.K.

2017-01-01

A unified approach to non-negative matrix factorization based on the theory of generalized linear models is proposed. This approach embeds a variety of statistical models, including the exponential family, within a single theoretical framework and provides a unified view of such factorizations from the perspective of quasi-likelihood. Using this framework, a family of algorithms for handling signal-dependent noise is developed and its convergence proven using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. In addition, a measure to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the resulting factorization is described. The proposed methods allow modeling of non-linear effects via appropriate link functions and are illustrated using an application in biomedical signal processing. PMID:27348511

Patch-based image reconstruction for PET using prior-image derived dictionaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahaei, Marzieh S.; Reader, Andrew J.

2016-09-01

In PET image reconstruction, regularization is often needed to reduce the noise in the resulting images. Patch-based image processing techniques have recently been successfully used for regularization in medical image reconstruction through a penalized likelihood framework. Re-parameterization within reconstruction is another powerful regularization technique in which the object in the scanner is re-parameterized using coefficients for spatially-extensive basis vectors. In this work, a method for extracting patch-based basis vectors from the subject’s MR image is proposed. The coefficients for these basis vectors are then estimated using the conventional MLEM algorithm. Furthermore, using the alternating direction method of multipliers, an algorithm for optimizing the Poisson log-likelihood while imposing sparsity on the parameters is also proposed. This novel method is then utilized to find sparse coefficients for the patch-based basis vectors extracted from the MR image. The results indicate the superiority of the proposed methods to patch-based regularization using the penalized likelihood framework.

Mixture Factor Analysis for Approximating a Nonnormally Distributed Continuous Latent Factor with Continuous and Dichotomous Observed Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wall, Melanie M.; Guo, Jia; Amemiya, Yasuo

2012-01-01

Mixture factor analysis is examined as a means of flexibly estimating nonnormally distributed continuous latent factors in the presence of both continuous and dichotomous observed variables. A simulation study compares mixture factor analysis with normal maximum likelihood (ML) latent factor modeling. Different results emerge for continuous versus…

The Order-Restricted Association Model: Two Estimation Algorithms and Issues in Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galindo-Garre, Francisca; Vermunt, Jeroen K.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a row-column (RC) association model in which the estimated row and column scores are forced to be in agreement with a priori specified ordering. Two efficient algorithms for finding the order-restricted maximum likelihood (ML) estimates are proposed and their reliability under different degrees of association is investigated by…

Terrain Classification Using Multi-Wavelength Lidar Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

Figure 9. Pseudo- NDVI of three layers within the vertical structure of the forest. (Top) First return from the LiDAR instrument, including the ground...in NDVI throughout the vertical canopy. ........................................................17 Figure 10. Optech Titan operating wavelengths...and Ranging LMS LiDAR Mapping Suite ML Maximum Likelihood NIR Near Infrared N-D VIS n-Dimensional Visualizer NDVI Normalized Difference

Time-resolved speckle effects on the estimation of laser-pulse arrival times

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsai, B.-M.; Gardner, C. S.

1985-01-01

A maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator of the pulse arrival in laser ranging and altimetry is derived for the case of a pulse distorted by shot noise and time-resolved speckle. The performance of the estimator is evaluated for pulse reflections from flat diffuse targets and compared with the performance of a suboptimal centroid estimator and a suboptimal Bar-David ML estimator derived under the assumption of no speckle. In the large-signal limit the accuracy of the estimator was found to improve as the width of the receiver observational interval increases. The timing performance of the estimator is expected to be highly sensitive to background noise when the received pulse energy is high and the receiver observational interval is large. Finally, in the speckle-limited regime the ML estimator performs considerably better than the suboptimal estimators.

Measuring coherence of computer-assisted likelihood ratio methods.

PubMed

Haraksim, Rudolf; Ramos, Daniel; Meuwly, Didier; Berger, Charles E H

2015-04-01

Measuring the performance of forensic evaluation methods that compute likelihood ratios (LRs) is relevant for both the development and the validation of such methods. A framework of performance characteristics categorized as primary and secondary is introduced in this study to help achieve such development and validation. Ground-truth labelled fingerprint data is used to assess the performance of an example likelihood ratio method in terms of those performance characteristics. Discrimination, calibration, and especially the coherence of this LR method are assessed as a function of the quantity and quality of the trace fingerprint specimen. Assessment of the coherence revealed a weakness of the comparison algorithm in the computer-assisted likelihood ratio method used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum likelihood positioning and energy correction for scintillation detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerche, Christoph W.; Salomon, André; Goldschmidt, Benjamin; Lodomez, Sarah; Weissler, Björn; Solf, Torsten

2016-02-01

An algorithm for determining the crystal pixel and the gamma ray energy with scintillation detectors for PET is presented. The algorithm uses Likelihood Maximisation (ML) and therefore is inherently robust to missing data caused by defect or paralysed photo detector pixels. We tested the algorithm on a highly integrated MRI compatible small animal PET insert. The scintillation detector blocks of the PET gantry were built with the newly developed digital Silicon Photomultiplier (SiPM) technology from Philips Digital Photon Counting and LYSO pixel arrays with a pitch of 1 mm and length of 12 mm. Light sharing was used to readout the scintillation light from the 30× 30 scintillator pixel array with an 8× 8 SiPM array. For the performance evaluation of the proposed algorithm, we measured the scanner’s spatial resolution, energy resolution, singles and prompt count rate performance, and image noise. These values were compared to corresponding values obtained with Center of Gravity (CoG) based positioning methods for different scintillation light trigger thresholds and also for different energy windows. While all positioning algorithms showed similar spatial resolution, a clear advantage for the ML method was observed when comparing the PET scanner’s overall single and prompt detection efficiency, image noise, and energy resolution to the CoG based methods. Further, ML positioning reduces the dependence of image quality on scanner configuration parameters and was the only method that allowed achieving highest energy resolution, count rate performance and spatial resolution at the same time.

Machine Learning-based discovery of closures for reduced models of dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Shaowu; Duraisamy, Karthik

2017-11-01

Despite the successful application of machine learning (ML) in fields such as image processing and speech recognition, only a few attempts has been made toward employing ML to represent the dynamics of complex physical systems. Previous attempts mostly focus on parameter calibration or data-driven augmentation of existing models. In this work we present a ML framework to discover closure terms in reduced models of dynamical systems and provide insights into potential problems associated with data-driven modeling. Based on exact closure models for linear system, we propose a general linear closure framework from viewpoint of optimization. The framework is based on trapezoidal approximation of convolution term. Hyperparameters that need to be determined include temporal length of memory effect, number of sampling points, and dimensions of hidden states. To circumvent the explicit specification of memory effect, a general framework inspired from neural networks is also proposed. We conduct both a priori and posteriori evaluations of the resulting model on a number of non-linear dynamical systems. This work was supported in part by AFOSR under the project ``LES Modeling of Non-local effects using Statistical Coarse-graining'' with Dr. Jean-Luc Cambier as the technical monitor.

An alternative method to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özlale, Ümit; Metin-Özcan, Kıvılcım

2007-07-01

This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood. Since the issue is analyzed in a non-linear state space framework, the extended Kalman filter emerges as the optimal estimation algorithm. Taking the Turkish economy as our laboratory, the results indicate that both the derived likelihood measure and the estimated time-varying parameters are meaningful and can successfully explain the path that the Turkish economy had followed between 2000 and 2006. The estimated parameters also suggest that overvalued domestic currency, current account deficit and the increase in the default risk increase the likelihood of having an economic crisis in the economy. Overall, the findings in this paper suggest that the estimation methodology introduced in this paper can also be applied to other emerging market economies as well.

Nutrition-Related Cancer Prevention Cognitions and Behavioral Intentions: Testing the Risk Perception Attitude Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sullivan, Helen W.; Beckjord, Ellen Burke; Finney Rutten, Lila J.; Hesse, Bradford W.

2008-01-01

This study tested whether the risk perception attitude framework predicted nutrition-related cancer prevention cognitions and behavioral intentions. Data from the 2003 Health Information National Trends Survey were analyzed to assess respondents' reported likelihood of developing cancer (risk) and perceptions of whether they could lower their…

MIXED MODEL AND ESTIMATING EQUATION APPROACHES FOR ZERO INFLATION IN CLUSTERED BINARY RESPONSE DATA WITH APPLICATION TO A DATING VIOLENCE STUDY1

PubMed Central

Fulton, Kara A.; Liu, Danping; Haynie, Denise L.; Albert, Paul S.

2016-01-01

The NEXT Generation Health study investigates the dating violence of adolescents using a survey questionnaire. Each student is asked to affirm or deny multiple instances of violence in his/her dating relationship. There is, however, evidence suggesting that students not in a relationship responded to the survey, resulting in excessive zeros in the responses. This paper proposes likelihood-based and estimating equation approaches to analyze the zero-inflated clustered binary response data. We adopt a mixed model method to account for the cluster effect, and the model parameters are estimated using a maximum-likelihood (ML) approach that requires a Gaussian–Hermite quadrature (GHQ) approximation for implementation. Since an incorrect assumption on the random effects distribution may bias the results, we construct generalized estimating equations (GEE) that do not require the correct specification of within-cluster correlation. In a series of simulation studies, we examine the performance of ML and GEE methods in terms of their bias, efficiency and robustness. We illustrate the importance of properly accounting for this zero inflation by reanalyzing the NEXT data where this issue has previously been ignored. PMID:26937263

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Spectra Information from Multiple Independent Astrophysics Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, Leonard W., Jr.; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Maximum Likelihood (ML) statistical theory required to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments is developed in this paper. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral information based on the combination of data sets. The procedure is of significant value to both existing data sets and those to be produced by future astrophysics missions consisting of two or more detectors by allowing instrument developers to optimize each detector's design parameters through simulation studies in order to design and build complementary detectors that will maximize the precision with which the science objectives may be obtained. The benefits of this ML theory and its application is measured in terms of the reduction of the statistical errors (standard deviations) of the spectra information using the multiple data sets in concert as compared to the statistical errors of the spectra information when the data sets are considered separately, as well as any biases resulting from poor statistics in one or more of the individual data sets that might be reduced when the data sets are combined.

Scaled test statistics and robust standard errors for non-normal data in covariance structure analysis: a Monte Carlo study.

PubMed

Chou, C P; Bentler, P M; Satorra, A

1991-11-01

Research studying robustness of maximum likelihood (ML) statistics in covariance structure analysis has concluded that test statistics and standard errors are biased under severe non-normality. An estimation procedure known as asymptotic distribution free (ADF), making no distributional assumption, has been suggested to avoid these biases. Corrections to the normal theory statistics to yield more adequate performance have also been proposed. This study compares the performance of a scaled test statistic and robust standard errors for two models under several non-normal conditions and also compares these with the results from ML and ADF methods. Both ML and ADF test statistics performed rather well in one model and considerably worse in the other. In general, the scaled test statistic seemed to behave better than the ML test statistic and the ADF statistic performed the worst. The robust and ADF standard errors yielded more appropriate estimates of sampling variability than the ML standard errors, which were usually downward biased, in both models under most of the non-normal conditions. ML test statistics and standard errors were found to be quite robust to the violation of the normality assumption when data had either symmetric and platykurtic distributions, or non-symmetric and zero kurtotic distributions.

Streptomyces kronopolitis sp. nov., an actinomycete that produces phoslactomycins isolated from a millipede (Kronopolites svenhedind Verhoeff).

PubMed

Liu, Chongxi; Ye, Lan; Li, Yao; Jiang, Shanwen; Liu, Hui; Yan, Kai; Xiang, Wensheng; Wang, Xiangjing

2016-12-01

A phoslactomycin-producing actinomycete, designated strain NEAU-ML8T, was isolated from a millipede (Kronopolites svenhedind Verhoeff) and characterized using a polyphasic approach. 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis showed that strain NEAU-ML8T belongs to the genus Streptomyces with the highest sequence similarities to Streptomyces lydicus NBRC 13058T (99.39 %) and Streptomyces chattanoogensis DSM 40002T (99.25 %). The maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree based on 16S rRNA gene sequences showed that the isolate formed a distinct phyletic line with NBRC 13058T and S. chattanoogensis DSM 40002T. This branching pattern was also supported by the tree rconstructed with the neighbour-joining method. A combination of DNA-DNA hybridization experiments and phenotypic tests were carried out between strain NEAU-ML8T and its phylogenetically closely related strains, which further clarified their relatedness and demonstrated that NEAU-ML8T could be distinguished from NBRC 13058T and S. chattanoogensis DSM 40002T. Therefore, it is concluded that strain NEAU-ML8T can be classified as representing a novel species of the genus Streptomyces, for which the name Streptomyces kronopolitis sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is NEAU-ML8T (=DSM 101986T=CGMCC 4.7323T).

Using Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Guide Quantitative Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, J. F.; Allocco, M.

2005-01-01

Quantitative methods can be beneficial in many types of safety investigations. However, there are many difficulties in using quantitative m ethods. Far example, there may be little relevant data available. This paper proposes a framework for using quantitative hazard analysis to prioritize hazard scenarios most suitable for quantitative mziysis. The framework first categorizes hazard scenarios by severity and likelihood. We then propose another metric "modeling difficulty" that desc ribes the complexity in modeling a given hazard scenario quantitatively. The combined metrics of severity, likelihood, and modeling difficu lty help to prioritize hazard scenarios for which quantitative analys is should be applied. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for airplane operatio ns at closely spaced parallel runways.

Leak Detection and Location of Water Pipes Using Vibration Sensors and Modified ML Prefilter.

PubMed

Choi, Jihoon; Shin, Joonho; Song, Choonggeun; Han, Suyong; Park, Doo Il

2017-09-13

This paper proposes a new leak detection and location method based on vibration sensors and generalised cross-correlation techniques. Considering the estimation errors of the power spectral densities (PSDs) and the cross-spectral density (CSD), the proposed method employs a modified maximum-likelihood (ML) prefilter with a regularisation factor. We derive a theoretical variance of the time difference estimation error through summation in the discrete-frequency domain, and find the optimal regularisation factor that minimises the theoretical variance in practical water pipe channels. The proposed method is compared with conventional correlation-based techniques via numerical simulations using a water pipe channel model, and it is shown through field measurement that the proposed modified ML prefilter outperforms conventional prefilters for the generalised cross-correlation. In addition, we provide a formula to calculate the leak location using the time difference estimate when different types of pipes are connected.

Leak Detection and Location of Water Pipes Using Vibration Sensors and Modified ML Prefilter

PubMed Central

Shin, Joonho; Song, Choonggeun; Han, Suyong; Park, Doo Il

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a new leak detection and location method based on vibration sensors and generalised cross-correlation techniques. Considering the estimation errors of the power spectral densities (PSDs) and the cross-spectral density (CSD), the proposed method employs a modified maximum-likelihood (ML) prefilter with a regularisation factor. We derive a theoretical variance of the time difference estimation error through summation in the discrete-frequency domain, and find the optimal regularisation factor that minimises the theoretical variance in practical water pipe channels. The proposed method is compared with conventional correlation-based techniques via numerical simulations using a water pipe channel model, and it is shown through field measurement that the proposed modified ML prefilter outperforms conventional prefilters for the generalised cross-correlation. In addition, we provide a formula to calculate the leak location using the time difference estimate when different types of pipes are connected. PMID:28902154

Plane-dependent ML scatter scaling: 3D extension of the 2D simulated single scatter (SSS) estimate.

PubMed

Rezaei, Ahmadreza; Salvo, Koen; Vahle, Thomas; Panin, Vladimir; Casey, Michael; Boada, Fernando; Defrise, Michel; Nuyts, Johan

2017-07-24

Scatter correction is typically done using a simulation of the single scatter, which is then scaled to account for multiple scatters and other possible model mismatches. This scaling factor is determined by fitting the simulated scatter sinogram to the measured sinogram, using only counts measured along LORs that do not intersect the patient body, i.e. 'scatter-tails'. Extending previous work, we propose to scale the scatter with a plane dependent factor, which is determined as an additional unknown in the maximum likelihood (ML) reconstructions, using counts in the entire sinogram rather than only the 'scatter-tails'. The ML-scaled scatter estimates are validated using a Monte-Carlo simulation of a NEMA-like phantom, a phantom scan with typical contrast ratios of a 68 Ga-PSMA scan, and 23 whole-body 18 F-FDG patient scans. On average, we observe a 12.2% change in the total amount of tracer activity of the MLEM reconstructions of our whole-body patient database when the proposed ML scatter scales are used. Furthermore, reconstructions using the ML-scaled scatter estimates are found to eliminate the typical 'halo' artifacts that are often observed in the vicinity of high focal uptake regions.

A quantum framework for likelihood ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, Rachael L.; He, Yang-Hui; Ormerod, Thomas C.

The ability to calculate precise likelihood ratios is fundamental to science, from Quantum Information Theory through to Quantum State Estimation. However, there is no assumption-free statistical methodology to achieve this. For instance, in the absence of data relating to covariate overlap, the widely used Bayes’ theorem either defaults to the marginal probability driven “naive Bayes’ classifier”, or requires the use of compensatory expectation-maximization techniques. This paper takes an information-theoretic approach in developing a new statistical formula for the calculation of likelihood ratios based on the principles of quantum entanglement, and demonstrates that Bayes’ theorem is a special case of a more general quantum mechanical expression.

Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT.

PubMed

Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Clinthorne, N H; Fessler, J A; Hero, A O

1994-01-01

The authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. They also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, the authors discuss model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy.

KEYNOTE 2 : Rebuilding the Tower of Babel - Better Communication with Standards

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-01

and a member of the Object Management Group (OMG) SysML specification team. He has been developing multi-national complex systems for almost 35 years...critical systems development, virtual team management, systems development, and software development with UML, SysML and Architectural Frameworks

Phylogeny and divergence of the pinnipeds (Carnivora: Mammalia) assessed using a multigene dataset

PubMed Central

Higdon, Jeff W; Bininda-Emonds, Olaf RP; Beck, Robin MD; Ferguson, Steven H

2007-01-01

Background Phylogenetic comparative methods are often improved by complete phylogenies with meaningful branch lengths (e.g., divergence dates). This study presents a dated molecular supertree for all 34 world pinniped species derived from a weighted matrix representation with parsimony (MRP) supertree analysis of 50 gene trees, each determined under a maximum likelihood (ML) framework. Divergence times were determined by mapping the same sequence data (plus two additional genes) on to the supertree topology and calibrating the ML branch lengths against a range of fossil calibrations. We assessed the sensitivity of our supertree topology in two ways: 1) a second supertree with all mtDNA genes combined into a single source tree, and 2) likelihood-based supermatrix analyses. Divergence dates were also calculated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock with rate autocorrelation to test the sensitivity of our supertree results further. Results The resulting phylogenies all agreed broadly with recent molecular studies, in particular supporting the monophyly of Phocidae, Otariidae, and the two phocid subfamilies, as well as an Odobenidae + Otariidae sister relationship; areas of disagreement were limited to four more poorly supported regions. Neither the supertree nor supermatrix analyses supported the monophyly of the two traditional otariid subfamilies, supporting suggestions for the need for taxonomic revision in this group. Phocid relationships were similar to other recent studies and deeper branches were generally well-resolved. Halichoerus grypus was nested within a paraphyletic Pusa, although relationships within Phocina tend to be poorly supported. Divergence date estimates for the supertree were in good agreement with other studies and the available fossil record; however, the Bayesian relaxed molecular clock divergence date estimates were significantly older. Conclusion Our results join other recent studies and highlight the need for a re-evaluation of pinniped taxonomy, especially as regards the subfamilial classification of otariids and the generic nomenclature of Phocina. Even with the recent publication of new sequence data, the available genetic sequence information for several species, particularly those in Arctocephalus, remains very limited, especially for nuclear markers. However, resolution of parts of the tree will probably remain difficult, even with additional data, due to apparent rapid radiations. Our study addresses the lack of a recent pinniped phylogeny that includes all species and robust divergence dates for all nodes, and will therefore prove indispensable to comparative and macroevolutionary studies of this group of carnivores. PMID:17996107

Implementing Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheung, Mike W.-L.

2013-01-01

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is now a generic modeling framework for many multivariate techniques applied in the social and behavioral sciences. Many statistical models can be considered either as special cases of SEM or as part of the latent variable modeling framework. One popular extension is the use of SEM to conduct linear mixed-effects…

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for forested habitats in northern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe

2012-01-01

We used a risk matrix to assess risk from climate change for multiple forest species by discussing an example that depicts a range of risk for three tree species of northern Wisconsin. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or effects of that event. In the context of species habitats, likelihood is related to...

Using Instrumental Variable (IV) Tests to Evaluate Model Specification in Latent Variable Structural Equation Models*

PubMed Central

Kirby, James B.; Bollen, Kenneth A.

2009-01-01

Structural Equation Modeling with latent variables (SEM) is a powerful tool for social and behavioral scientists, combining many of the strengths of psychometrics and econometrics into a single framework. The most common estimator for SEM is the full-information maximum likelihood estimator (ML), but there is continuing interest in limited information estimators because of their distributional robustness and their greater resistance to structural specification errors. However, the literature discussing model fit for limited information estimators for latent variable models is sparse compared to that for full information estimators. We address this shortcoming by providing several specification tests based on the 2SLS estimator for latent variable structural equation models developed by Bollen (1996). We explain how these tests can be used to not only identify a misspecified model, but to help diagnose the source of misspecification within a model. We present and discuss results from a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the finite sample properties of these tests. Our findings suggest that the 2SLS tests successfully identify most misspecified models, even those with modest misspecification, and that they provide researchers with information that can help diagnose the source of misspecification. PMID:20419054

Parsimony and Model-Based Analyses of Indels in Avian Nuclear Genes Reveal Congruent and Incongruent Phylogenetic Signals

PubMed Central

Yuri, Tamaki; Kimball, Rebecca T.; Harshman, John; Bowie, Rauri C. K.; Braun, Michael J.; Chojnowski, Jena L.; Han, Kin-Lan; Hackett, Shannon J.; Huddleston, Christopher J.; Moore, William S.; Reddy, Sushma; Sheldon, Frederick H.; Steadman, David W.; Witt, Christopher C.; Braun, Edward L.

2013-01-01

Insertion/deletion (indel) mutations, which are represented by gaps in multiple sequence alignments, have been used to examine phylogenetic hypotheses for some time. However, most analyses combine gap data with the nucleotide sequences in which they are embedded, probably because most phylogenetic datasets include few gap characters. Here, we report analyses of 12,030 gap characters from an alignment of avian nuclear genes using maximum parsimony (MP) and a simple maximum likelihood (ML) framework. Both trees were similar, and they exhibited almost all of the strongly supported relationships in the nucleotide tree, although neither gap tree supported many relationships that have proven difficult to recover in previous studies. Moreover, independent lines of evidence typically corroborated the nucleotide topology instead of the gap topology when they disagreed, although the number of conflicting nodes with high bootstrap support was limited. Filtering to remove short indels did not substantially reduce homoplasy or reduce conflict. Combined analyses of nucleotides and gaps resulted in the nucleotide topology, but with increased support, suggesting that gap data may prove most useful when analyzed in combination with nucleotide substitutions. PMID:24832669

Technical Note for 8D Likelihood Effective Higgs Couplings Extraction Framework in the Golden Channel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yi; Di Marco, Emanuele; Lykken, Joe

2014-10-17

In this technical note we present technical details on various aspects of the framework introduced in arXiv:1401.2077 aimed at extracting effective Higgs couplings in themore » $$h\\to 4\\ell$$ `golden channel'. Since it is the primary feature of the framework, we focus in particular on the convolution integral which takes us from `truth' level to `detector' level and the numerical and analytic techniques used to obtain it. We also briefly discuss other aspects of the framework.« less

The performance of monotonic and new non-monotonic gradient ascent reconstruction algorithms for high-resolution neuroreceptor PET imaging.

PubMed

Angelis, G I; Reader, A J; Kotasidis, F A; Lionheart, W R; Matthews, J C

2011-07-07

Iterative expectation maximization (EM) techniques have been extensively used to solve maximum likelihood (ML) problems in positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction. Although EM methods offer a robust approach to solving ML problems, they usually suffer from slow convergence rates. The ordered subsets EM (OSEM) algorithm provides significant improvements in the convergence rate, but it can cycle between estimates converging towards the ML solution of each subset. In contrast, gradient-based methods, such as the recently proposed non-monotonic maximum likelihood (NMML) and the more established preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG), offer a globally convergent, yet equally fast, alternative to OSEM. Reported results showed that NMML provides faster convergence compared to OSEM; however, it has never been compared to other fast gradient-based methods, like PCG. Therefore, in this work we evaluate the performance of two gradient-based methods (NMML and PCG) and investigate their potential as an alternative to the fast and widely used OSEM. All algorithms were evaluated using 2D simulations, as well as a single [(11)C]DASB clinical brain dataset. Results on simulated 2D data show that both PCG and NMML achieve orders of magnitude faster convergence to the ML solution compared to MLEM and exhibit comparable performance to OSEM. Equally fast performance is observed between OSEM and PCG for clinical 3D data, but NMML seems to perform poorly. However, with the addition of a preconditioner term to the gradient direction, the convergence behaviour of NMML can be substantially improved. Although PCG is a fast convergent algorithm, the use of a (bent) line search increases the complexity of the implementation, as well as the computational time involved per iteration. Contrary to previous reports, NMML offers no clear advantage over OSEM or PCG, for noisy PET data. Therefore, we conclude that there is little evidence to replace OSEM as the algorithm of choice for many applications, especially given that in practice convergence is often not desired for algorithms seeking ML estimates.

Understanding and Evolving the ML Module System

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-01

kinds Abstract The ML module system stands as a high-water mark of programming language support for data abstraction. Nevertheless, it is not in a... language of part (3) using the framework of Harper and Stone, in which the meanings of “external” ML programs are interpreted by translation into an...researcher has been influenced to a large degree by their rigorous approach to programming language research and their profound sense of aesthetics. I

Adaptive early detection ML/PDA estimator for LO targets with EO sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chummun, Muhammad R.; Kirubarajan, Thiagalingam; Bar-Shalom, Yaakov

2000-07-01

The batch Maximum Likelihood Estimator, combined with Probabilistic Data (ML-PDA), has been shown to be effective in acquiring low observable (LO) - low SNR - non-maneuvering targets in the presence of heavy clutter. The use of signal strength or amplitude information (AI) in the ML-PDA estimator with AI in a sliding-window fashion, to detect high- speed targets in heavy clutter using electro-optical (EO) sensors. The initial time and the length of the sliding-window are adjusted adaptively according to the information content of the received measurements. A track validation scheme via hypothesis testing is developed to confirm the estimated track, that is, the presence of a target, in each window. The sliding-window ML-PDA approach, together with track validation, enables early detection by rejecting noninformative scans, target reacquisition in case of temporary target disappearance and the handling of targets with speeds evolving over time. The proposed algorithm is shown to detect the target, which is hidden in as many as 600 false alarms per scan, 10 frames earlier than the Multiple Hypothesis Tracking (MHT) algorithm.

One normal void and residual following MUS surgery is all that is necessary in most patients.

PubMed

Ballard, Paul; Shawer, Sami; Anderson, Colette; Khunda, Aethele

2018-04-01

There is considerable variation worldwide on how the assessment of voiding function is performed following midurethral sling (MUS) surgery. There is potentially a financial cost, and reduction in efficiency when patient discharge is delayed. Using our current practice of two normal void and residual (V&R) readings before discharge, the aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the likelihood of an abnormal second V&R test if the first V&R test was normal in order to determine if a policy of discharge after only one satisfactory V&R test is reasonable. Data from 400 patients who had had MUS surgery with or without other procedures were collected. Our unit protocol included two consecutive voids of greater than 200 ml with residuals less than 150 ml before discharge. The patients were divided into the following groups: MUS only, MUS plus anterior colporrhaphy (AR) plus any other procedures (MUS/AR), and MUS with any non-AR procedures (MUS+). Complete datasets were available for 335 patients. Once inadequate tests (low volume voids <200 ml) had been excluded (28% overall), the likelihood of an abnormal second V&R test if the first test was normal was 7.1% overall, but 3.6% for MUS, 11.5% for MUS/AR and 8.6% for MUS+. The findings in the MUS-only group indicate that it is probably safe to discharge patients after one satisfactory V&R test, as long as safety measures such as 'open access' are available so that patients have unhindered readmission if problems arise.

Robust geostatistical analysis of spatial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papritz, Andreas; Künsch, Hans Rudolf; Schwierz, Cornelia; Stahel, Werner A.

2013-04-01

Most of the geostatistical software tools rely on non-robust algorithms. This is unfortunate, because outlying observations are rather the rule than the exception, in particular in environmental data sets. Outliers affect the modelling of the large-scale spatial trend, the estimation of the spatial dependence of the residual variation and the predictions by kriging. Identifying outliers manually is cumbersome and requires expertise because one needs parameter estimates to decide which observation is a potential outlier. Moreover, inference after the rejection of some observations is problematic. A better approach is to use robust algorithms that prevent automatically that outlying observations have undue influence. Former studies on robust geostatistics focused on robust estimation of the sample variogram and ordinary kriging without external drift. Furthermore, Richardson and Welsh (1995) proposed a robustified version of (restricted) maximum likelihood ([RE]ML) estimation for the variance components of a linear mixed model, which was later used by Marchant and Lark (2007) for robust REML estimation of the variogram. We propose here a novel method for robust REML estimation of the variogram of a Gaussian random field that is possibly contaminated by independent errors from a long-tailed distribution. It is based on robustification of estimating equations for the Gaussian REML estimation (Welsh and Richardson, 1997). Besides robust estimates of the parameters of the external drift and of the variogram, the method also provides standard errors for the estimated parameters, robustified kriging predictions at both sampled and non-sampled locations and kriging variances. Apart from presenting our modelling framework, we shall present selected simulation results by which we explored the properties of the new method. This will be complemented by an analysis a data set on heavy metal contamination of the soil in the vicinity of a metal smelter. Marchant, B.P. and Lark, R.M. 2007. Robust estimation of the variogram by residual maximum likelihood. Geoderma 140: 62-72. Richardson, A.M. and Welsh, A.H. 1995. Robust restricted maximum likelihood in mixed linear models. Biometrics 51: 1429-1439. Welsh, A.H. and Richardson, A.M. 1997. Approaches to the robust estimation of mixed models. In: Handbook of Statistics Vol. 15, Elsevier, pp. 343-384.

When Can Categorical Variables Be Treated as Continuous? A Comparison of Robust Continuous and Categorical SEM Estimation Methods under Suboptimal Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhemtulla, Mijke; Brosseau-Liard, Patricia E.; Savalei, Victoria

2012-01-01

A simulation study compared the performance of robust normal theory maximum likelihood (ML) and robust categorical least squares (cat-LS) methodology for estimating confirmatory factor analysis models with ordinal variables. Data were generated from 2 models with 2-7 categories, 4 sample sizes, 2 latent distributions, and 5 patterns of category…

Automatic Modulation Classification of Common Communication and Pulse Compression Radar Waveforms using Cyclic Features

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

intermediate frequency LFM linear frequency modulation MAP maximum a posteriori MATLAB® matrix laboratory ML maximun likelihood OFDM orthogonal frequency...spectrum, frequency hopping, and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing ( OFDM ) modulations. Feature analysis would be a good research thrust to...determine feature relevance and decide if removing any features improves performance. Also, extending the system for simulations using a MIMO receiver or

Pseudo-coherent demodulation for mobile satellite systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divsalar, Dariush; Simon, Marvin K.

1993-01-01

This paper proposes three so-called pseudo-coherent demodulation schemes for use in land mobile satellite channels. The schemes are derived based on maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and detection of an N-symbol observation of the received signal. Simulation results for all three demodulators are presented to allow comparison with the performance of differential PSK (DPSK) and ideal coherent demodulation for various system parameter sets of practical interest.

Ensemble Learning Method for Hidden Markov Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

Ensemble HMM landmine detector Mine signatures vary according to the mine type, mine size , and burial depth. Similarly, clutter signatures vary with soil ...approaches for the di erent K groups depending on their size and homogeneity. In particular, we investigate the maximum likelihood (ML), the minimum...propose using and optimizing various training approaches for the different K groups depending on their size and homogeneity. In particular, we

Using Machine Learning in Adversarial Environments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warren Leon Davis

Intrusion/anomaly detection systems are among the first lines of cyber defense. Commonly, they either use signatures or machine learning (ML) to identify threats, but fail to account for sophisticated attackers trying to circumvent them. We propose to embed machine learning within a game theoretic framework that performs adversarial modeling, develops methods for optimizing operational response based on ML, and integrates the resulting optimization codebase into the existing ML infrastructure developed by the Hybrid LDRD. Our approach addresses three key shortcomings of ML in adversarial settings: 1) resulting classifiers are typically deterministic and, therefore, easy to reverse engineer; 2) ML approachesmore » only address the prediction problem, but do not prescribe how one should operationalize predictions, nor account for operational costs and constraints; and 3) ML approaches do not model attackers’ response and can be circumvented by sophisticated adversaries. The principal novelty of our approach is to construct an optimization framework that blends ML, operational considerations, and a model predicting attackers reaction, with the goal of computing optimal moving target defense. One important challenge is to construct a realistic model of an adversary that is tractable, yet realistic. We aim to advance the science of attacker modeling by considering game-theoretic methods, and by engaging experimental subjects with red teaming experience in trying to actively circumvent an intrusion detection system, and learning a predictive model of such circumvention activities. In addition, we will generate metrics to test that a particular model of an adversary is consistent with available data.« less

SubspaceEM: A Fast Maximum-a-posteriori Algorithm for Cryo-EM Single Particle Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Dvornek, Nicha C.; Sigworth, Fred J.; Tagare, Hemant D.

2015-01-01

Single particle reconstruction methods based on the maximum-likelihood principle and the expectation-maximization (E–M) algorithm are popular because of their ability to produce high resolution structures. However, these algorithms are computationally very expensive, requiring a network of computational servers. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we propose a new mathematical framework for accelerating maximum-likelihood reconstructions. The speedup is by orders of magnitude and the proposed algorithm produces similar quality reconstructions compared to the standard maximum-likelihood formulation. Our approach uses subspace approximations of the cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) data and projection images, greatly reducing the number of image transformations and comparisons that are computed. Experiments using simulated and actual cryo-EM data show that speedup in overall execution time compared to traditional maximum-likelihood reconstruction reaches factors of over 300. PMID:25839831

Integration within the Felsenstein equation for improved Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in population genetics

PubMed Central

Hey, Jody; Nielsen, Rasmus

2007-01-01

In 1988, Felsenstein described a framework for assessing the likelihood of a genetic data set in which all of the possible genealogical histories of the data are considered, each in proportion to their probability. Although not analytically solvable, several approaches, including Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, have been developed to find approximate solutions. Here, we describe an approach in which Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations are used to integrate over the space of genealogies, whereas other parameters are integrated out analytically. The result is an approximation to the full joint posterior density of the model parameters. For many purposes, this function can be treated as a likelihood, thereby permitting likelihood-based analyses, including likelihood ratio tests of nested models. Several examples, including an application to the divergence of chimpanzee subspecies, are provided. PMID:17301231

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Students’ Behavioral Disorder: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis

PubMed Central

Tian, Xian-Liang; Guan, Xian

2015-01-01

Objective: The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of Hurricane Katrina on displaced students’ behavioral disorder. Methods: First, we determine displaced students’ likelihood of discipline infraction each year relative to non-evacuees using all K12 student records of the U.S. state of Louisiana during the period of 2000–2008. Second, we investigate the impact of hurricane on evacuee students’ in-school behavior in a difference-in-difference framework. The quasi-experimental nature of the hurricane makes this framework appropriate with the advantage that the problem of endogeneity is of least concern and the causal effect of interest can be reasonably identified. Results: Preliminary analysis demonstrates a sharp increase in displaced students’ relative likelihood of discipline infraction around 2005 when the hurricane occurred. Further, formal difference-in-difference analysis confirms the results. To be specific, post Katrina, displaced students’ relative likelihood of any discipline infraction has increased by 7.3% whereas the increase in the relative likelihood for status offense, offense against person, offense against property and serious crime is 4%, 1.5%, 3.8% and 2.1%, respectively. Conclusion: When disasters occur, as was the case with Hurricane Katrina, in addition to assistance for adult evacuees, governments, in cooperation with schools, should also provide aid and assistance to displaced children to support their mental health and in-school behavior. PMID:26006127

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Students' Behavioral Disorder: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis.

PubMed

Tian, Xian-Liang; Guan, Xian

2015-05-22

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of Hurricane Katrina on displaced students' behavioral disorder. First, we determine displaced students' likelihood of discipline infraction each year relative to non-evacuees using all K12 student records of the U.S. state of Louisiana during the period of 2000-2008. Second, we investigate the impact of hurricane on evacuee students' in-school behavior in a difference-in-difference framework. The quasi-experimental nature of the hurricane makes this framework appropriate with the advantage that the problem of endogeneity is of least concern and the causal effect of interest can be reasonably identified. Preliminary analysis demonstrates a sharp increase in displaced students' relative likelihood of discipline infraction around 2005 when the hurricane occurred. Further, formal difference-in-difference analysis confirms the results. To be specific, post Katrina, displaced students' relative likelihood of any discipline infraction has increased by 7.3% whereas the increase in the relative likelihood for status offense, offense against person, offense against property and serious crime is 4%, 1.5%, 3.8% and 2.1%, respectively. When disasters occur, as was the case with Hurricane Katrina, in addition to assistance for adult evacuees, governments, in cooperation with schools, should also provide aid and assistance to displaced children to support their mental health and in-school behavior.

Should I Text or Call Here? A Situation-Based Analysis of Drivers' Perceived Likelihood of Engaging in Mobile Phone Multitasking.

PubMed

Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar; Haque, Md Mazharul; King, Mark; Washington, Simon

2018-05-29

This study investigated how situational characteristics typically encountered in the transport system influence drivers' perceived likelihood of engaging in mobile phone multitasking. The impacts of mobile phone tasks, perceived environmental complexity/risk, and drivers' individual differences were evaluated as relevant individual predictors within the behavioral adaptation framework. An innovative questionnaire, which includes randomized textual and visual scenarios, was administered to collect data from a sample of 447 drivers in South East Queensland-Australia (66% females; n = 296). The likelihood of engaging in a mobile phone task across various scenarios was modeled by a random parameters ordered probit model. Results indicated that drivers who are female, are frequent users of phones for texting/answering calls, have less favorable attitudes towards safety, and are highly disinhibited were more likely to report stronger intentions of engaging in mobile phone multitasking. However, more years with a valid driving license, self-efficacy toward self-regulation in demanding traffic conditions and police enforcement, texting tasks, and demanding traffic conditions were negatively related to self-reported likelihood of mobile phone multitasking. The unobserved heterogeneity warned of riskier groups among female drivers and participants who need a lot of convincing to believe that multitasking while driving is dangerous. This research concludes that behavioral adaptation theory is a robust framework explaining self-regulation of distracted drivers. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

A general framework for updating belief distributions.

PubMed

Bissiri, P G; Holmes, C C; Walker, S G

2016-11-01

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the traditional likelihood function, which is recovered as a special case. Modern application areas make it increasingly challenging for Bayesians to attempt to model the true data-generating mechanism. For instance, when the object of interest is low dimensional, such as a mean or median, it is cumbersome to have to achieve this via a complete model for the whole data distribution. More importantly, there are settings where the parameter of interest does not directly index a family of density functions and thus the Bayesian approach to learning about such parameters is currently regarded as problematic. Our framework uses loss functions to connect information in the data to functionals of interest. The updating of beliefs then follows from a decision theoretic approach involving cumulative loss functions. Importantly, the procedure coincides with Bayesian updating when a true likelihood is known yet provides coherent subjective inference in much more general settings. Connections to other inference frameworks are highlighted.

The relationship between quality management practices and organisational performance: A structural equation modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamaluddin, Z.; Razali, A. M.; Mustafa, Z.

2015-02-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the quality management practices (QMPs) and organisational performance for the manufacturing industry in Malaysia. In this study, a QMPs and organisational performance framework is developed according to a comprehensive literature review which cover aspects of hard and soft quality factors in manufacturing process environment. A total of 11 hypotheses have been put forward to test the relationship amongst the six constructs, which are management commitment, training, process management, quality tools, continuous improvement and organisational performance. The model is analysed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with AMOS software version 18.0 using Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation. A total of 480 questionnaires were distributed, and 210 questionnaires were valid for analysis. The results of the modeling analysis using ML estimation indicate that the fits statistics of QMPs and organisational performance model for manufacturing industry is admissible. From the results, it found that the management commitment have significant impact on the training and process management. Similarly, the training had significant effect to the quality tools, process management and continuous improvement. Furthermore, the quality tools have significant influence on the process management and continuous improvement. Likewise, the process management also has a significant impact to the continuous improvement. In addition the continuous improvement has significant influence the organisational performance. However, the results of the study also found that there is no significant relationship between management commitment and quality tools, and between the management commitment and continuous improvement. The results of the study can be used by managers to prioritize the implementation of QMPs. For instances, those practices that are found to have positive impact on organisational performance can be recommended to managers so that they can allocate resources to improve these practices to get better performance.

Approximate, computationally efficient online learning in Bayesian spiking neurons.

PubMed

Kuhlmann, Levin; Hauser-Raspe, Michael; Manton, Jonathan H; Grayden, David B; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

2014-03-01

Bayesian spiking neurons (BSNs) provide a probabilistic interpretation of how neurons perform inference and learning. Online learning in BSNs typically involves parameter estimation based on maximum-likelihood expectation-maximization (ML-EM) which is computationally slow and limits the potential of studying networks of BSNs. An online learning algorithm, fast learning (FL), is presented that is more computationally efficient than the benchmark ML-EM for a fixed number of time steps as the number of inputs to a BSN increases (e.g., 16.5 times faster run times for 20 inputs). Although ML-EM appears to converge 2.0 to 3.6 times faster than FL, the computational cost of ML-EM means that ML-EM takes longer to simulate to convergence than FL. FL also provides reasonable convergence performance that is robust to initialization of parameter estimates that are far from the true parameter values. However, parameter estimation depends on the range of true parameter values. Nevertheless, for a physiologically meaningful range of parameter values, FL gives very good average estimation accuracy, despite its approximate nature. The FL algorithm therefore provides an efficient tool, complementary to ML-EM, for exploring BSN networks in more detail in order to better understand their biological relevance. Moreover, the simplicity of the FL algorithm means it can be easily implemented in neuromorphic VLSI such that one can take advantage of the energy-efficient spike coding of BSNs.

Dynamical analysis of contrastive divergence learning: Restricted Boltzmann machines with Gaussian visible units.

PubMed

Karakida, Ryo; Okada, Masato; Amari, Shun-Ichi

2016-07-01

The restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) is an essential constituent of deep learning, but it is hard to train by using maximum likelihood (ML) learning, which minimizes the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Instead, contrastive divergence (CD) learning has been developed as an approximation of ML learning and widely used in practice. To clarify the performance of CD learning, in this paper, we analytically derive the fixed points where ML and CDn learning rules converge in two types of RBMs: one with Gaussian visible and Gaussian hidden units and the other with Gaussian visible and Bernoulli hidden units. In addition, we analyze the stability of the fixed points. As a result, we find that the stable points of CDn learning rule coincide with those of ML learning rule in a Gaussian-Gaussian RBM. We also reveal that larger principal components of the input data are extracted at the stable points. Moreover, in a Gaussian-Bernoulli RBM, we find that both ML and CDn learning can extract independent components at one of stable points. Our analysis demonstrates that the same feature components as those extracted by ML learning are extracted simply by performing CD1 learning. Expanding this study should elucidate the specific solutions obtained by CD learning in other types of RBMs or in deep networks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk assessment of WSSV transmission through partial harvesting and transport practices for shrimp aquaculture in Mexico.

PubMed

Sanchez-Zazueta, Edgar; Martínez-Cordero, Francisco Javier; Chávez-Sánchez, María Cristina; Montoya-Rodríguez, Leobardo

2017-10-01

This quantitative risk assessment provided an analytical framework to estimate white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) transmission risks in the following different scenarios: (1) partial harvest from rearing ponds and (2) post-harvest transportation, assuming that the introduction of contaminated water with viral particles into shrimp culture ponds is the main source of viral transmission risk. Probabilities of infecting shrimp with waterborne WSSV were obtained by approaching the functional form that best fits (likelihood ratio test) published data on the dose-response relationship for WSSV orally inoculated through water into shrimp. Expert opinion defined the ranges for the following uncertain factors: (1) the concentrations of WSSV in the water spilled from the vehicles transporting the infected shrimp, (2) the total volume of these spills, and (3) the dilution into culture ponds. Multiple scenarios were analysed, starting with a viral load (VL) of 1×10 2 mL -1 in the contaminated water spilled that reached the culture pond, whose probability of infection of an individual shrimp (P i ) was negligible (1.7×10 -7 ). Increasing the VL to 1×10 4.5 mL -1 and 1×10 7 mL -1 yielded results into very low (P i =5.3×10 -5 ) and high risk (P i =1.6×10 -2 ) categories, respectively. Furthermore, different pond stocking density (SD) scenarios (20 and 30 post-larvae [PL]/m 2 ) were evaluated, and the probability of infection of at least one out of the total number of shrimp exposed (P N ) was derived; for the scenarios with a low VL (1×10 2 mL -1 ), the P N remained at a negligible risk level (P N , 2.4×10 -7 to 1.8×10 -6 ). For most of the scenarios with the moderate VL (1×10 4.5 mL -1 ), the P N scaled up to a low risk category (P N , 1.1×10 -4 to 5.6×10 -4 ), whereas for the scenarios with a high VL (1×10 7 mL -1 ), the risk levels were high (P N , 2.3×10 -2 to 3.5×10 -2 ) or very high (P N , 1.1×10 -1 to 1.6×10 -1 ) depending on the volume of contaminated water spilled in the culture pond (VCWSCP, 4 or 20L). In the sensitivity analysis, for a SD of 30 PL/m 2 , it was shown that starting with a VL of 1×10 5 mL -1 and a VCWSCP of 12L, the P N was moderate (1.05×10 -3 ). This was the threshold for greater risks, given the increase in either the VCWSCP or VL. These findings supported recommendations to prevent WSSV spread through more controlled transportation and partial harvesting practices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extensions to the Dynamic Aerospace Vehicle Exchange Markup Language

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brian, Geoffrey J.; Jackson, E. Bruce

2011-01-01

The Dynamic Aerospace Vehicle Exchange Markup Language (DAVE-ML) is a syntactical language for exchanging flight vehicle dynamic model data. It provides a framework for encoding entire flight vehicle dynamic model data packages for exchange and/or long-term archiving. Version 2.0.1 of DAVE-ML provides much of the functionality envisioned for exchanging aerospace vehicle data; however, it is limited in only supporting scalar time-independent data. Additional functionality is required to support vector and matrix data, abstracting sub-system models, detailing dynamics system models (both discrete and continuous), and defining a dynamic data format (such as time sequenced data) for validation of dynamics system models and vehicle simulation packages. Extensions to DAVE-ML have been proposed to manage data as vectors and n-dimensional matrices, and record dynamic data in a compatible form. These capabilities will improve the clarity of data being exchanged, simplify the naming of parameters, and permit static and dynamic data to be stored using a common syntax within a single file; thereby enhancing the framework provided by DAVE-ML for exchanging entire flight vehicle dynamic simulation models.

Extending the BEAGLE library to a multi-FPGA platform.

PubMed

Jin, Zheming; Bakos, Jason D

2013-01-19

Maximum Likelihood (ML)-based phylogenetic inference using Felsenstein's pruning algorithm is a standard method for estimating the evolutionary relationships amongst a set of species based on DNA sequence data, and is used in popular applications such as RAxML, PHYLIP, GARLI, BEAST, and MrBayes. The Phylogenetic Likelihood Function (PLF) and its associated scaling and normalization steps comprise the computational kernel for these tools. These computations are data intensive but contain fine grain parallelism that can be exploited by coprocessor architectures such as FPGAs and GPUs. A general purpose API called BEAGLE has recently been developed that includes optimized implementations of Felsenstein's pruning algorithm for various data parallel architectures. In this paper, we extend the BEAGLE API to a multiple Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)-based platform called the Convey HC-1. The core calculation of our implementation, which includes both the phylogenetic likelihood function (PLF) and the tree likelihood calculation, has an arithmetic intensity of 130 floating-point operations per 64 bytes of I/O, or 2.03 ops/byte. Its performance can thus be calculated as a function of the host platform's peak memory bandwidth and the implementation's memory efficiency, as 2.03 × peak bandwidth × memory efficiency. Our FPGA-based platform has a peak bandwidth of 76.8 GB/s and our implementation achieves a memory efficiency of approximately 50%, which gives an average throughput of 78 Gflops. This represents a ~40X speedup when compared with BEAGLE's CPU implementation on a dual Xeon 5520 and 3X speedup versus BEAGLE's GPU implementation on a Tesla T10 GPU for very large data sizes. The power consumption is 92 W, yielding a power efficiency of 1.7 Gflops per Watt. The use of data parallel architectures to achieve high performance for likelihood-based phylogenetic inference requires high memory bandwidth and a design methodology that emphasizes high memory efficiency. To achieve this objective, we integrated 32 pipelined processing elements (PEs) across four FPGAs. For the design of each PE, we developed a specialized synthesis tool to generate a floating-point pipeline with resource and throughput constraints to match the target platform. We have found that using low-latency floating-point operators can significantly reduce FPGA area and still meet timing requirement on the target platform. We found that this design methodology can achieve performance that exceeds that of a GPU-based coprocessor.

Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.

1994-06-01

In this paper, the authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. The authors also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performancemore » to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy are discussed.« less

Estimating the arrival times of photon-limited laser pulses in the presence of shot and speckle noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abshire, James B.; Mcgarry, Jan F.

1987-01-01

Maximum-likelihood (ML) receivers are frequently used to optimize the timing performance of laser-ranging and laser-altimetry systems in the presence of shot and speckle noise. Monte Carlo method was used to examine ML-receiver performance with return signals in the 10-5000-photoelectron (pe) range. The simulations were performed for shot noise only and for shot and speckle noise. The results agree with previous theory for signal strengths greater than about 100 pe's but show that the theory can significantly underestimate timing errors for weaker received signals. Sharp high-bandwidth features in the detected signals are shown to improve timing performance only if their signal levels are greater than 4-5 pe's.

[Clinical examination and the Valsalva maneuver in heart failure].

PubMed

Liniado, Guillermo E; Beck, Martín A; Gimeno, Graciela M; González, Ana L; Cianciulli, Tomás F; Castiello, Gustavo G; Gagliardi, Juan A

2018-01-01

Congestion in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is relevant and closely linked to the clinical course. Bedside blood pressure measurement during the Valsalva maneuver (Val) added to clinical examination may improve the assessment of congestion when compared to NT-proBNP levels and left atrial pressure (LAP) estimation by Doppler echocardiography, as surrogate markers of congestion in HFrEF. A clinical examination, LAP and blood tests were performed in 69 HFrEF ambulatory patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 40% and sinus rhythm. Framingham Heart Failure Score (HFS) was used to evaluate clinical congestion; Val was classified as normal or abnormal, NT-proBNP was classified as low (< 1000 pg/ml) or high (≥ 1000 pg/ml) and the ratio between Doppler early mitral inflow and tissue diastolic velocity was used to estimate LAP and was classified as low (E/e'< 15) or high (E/e' ≥ 15). A total of 69 patients with HFrEF were included; 27 had a HFS ≥ 2 and 13 of them had high NT-proBNP. HFS ≥ 2 had a 62% sensitivity, 70% specificity and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.08 (p=0.01) to detect congestion. When Val was added to clinical examination, the presence of a HFS ≥ 2 and abnormal Val showed a 100% sensitivity, 64% specificity and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.8 (p = 0.0004). Compared with LAP, the presence of HFS = 2 and abnormal Val had 86% sensitivity, 54% specificity and a positive likelihood ratio of 1.86 (p = 0.03). In conclusion, an integrated clinical examination with the addition Valsalva maneuver may improve the assessment of congestion in patients with HFrEF.

Plane-dependent ML scatter scaling: 3D extension of the 2D simulated single scatter (SSS) estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaei, Ahmadreza; Salvo, Koen; Vahle, Thomas; Panin, Vladimir; Casey, Michael; Boada, Fernando; Defrise, Michel; Nuyts, Johan

2017-08-01

Scatter correction is typically done using a simulation of the single scatter, which is then scaled to account for multiple scatters and other possible model mismatches. This scaling factor is determined by fitting the simulated scatter sinogram to the measured sinogram, using only counts measured along LORs that do not intersect the patient body, i.e. ‘scatter-tails’. Extending previous work, we propose to scale the scatter with a plane dependent factor, which is determined as an additional unknown in the maximum likelihood (ML) reconstructions, using counts in the entire sinogram rather than only the ‘scatter-tails’. The ML-scaled scatter estimates are validated using a Monte-Carlo simulation of a NEMA-like phantom, a phantom scan with typical contrast ratios of a 68Ga-PSMA scan, and 23 whole-body 18F-FDG patient scans. On average, we observe a 12.2% change in the total amount of tracer activity of the MLEM reconstructions of our whole-body patient database when the proposed ML scatter scales are used. Furthermore, reconstructions using the ML-scaled scatter estimates are found to eliminate the typical ‘halo’ artifacts that are often observed in the vicinity of high focal uptake regions.

MEGA5: Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis Using Maximum Likelihood, Evolutionary Distance, and Maximum Parsimony Methods

PubMed Central

Tamura, Koichiro; Peterson, Daniel; Peterson, Nicholas; Stecher, Glen; Nei, Masatoshi; Kumar, Sudhir

2011-01-01

Comparative analysis of molecular sequence data is essential for reconstructing the evolutionary histories of species and inferring the nature and extent of selective forces shaping the evolution of genes and species. Here, we announce the release of Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis version 5 (MEGA5), which is a user-friendly software for mining online databases, building sequence alignments and phylogenetic trees, and using methods of evolutionary bioinformatics in basic biology, biomedicine, and evolution. The newest addition in MEGA5 is a collection of maximum likelihood (ML) analyses for inferring evolutionary trees, selecting best-fit substitution models (nucleotide or amino acid), inferring ancestral states and sequences (along with probabilities), and estimating evolutionary rates site-by-site. In computer simulation analyses, ML tree inference algorithms in MEGA5 compared favorably with other software packages in terms of computational efficiency and the accuracy of the estimates of phylogenetic trees, substitution parameters, and rate variation among sites. The MEGA user interface has now been enhanced to be activity driven to make it easier for the use of both beginners and experienced scientists. This version of MEGA is intended for the Windows platform, and it has been configured for effective use on Mac OS X and Linux desktops. It is available free of charge from http://www.megasoftware.net. PMID:21546353

Importing MAGE-ML format microarray data into BioConductor.

PubMed

Durinck, Steffen; Allemeersch, Joke; Carey, Vincent J; Moreau, Yves; De Moor, Bart

2004-12-12

The microarray gene expression markup language (MAGE-ML) is a widely used XML (eXtensible Markup Language) standard for describing and exchanging information about microarray experiments. It can describe microarray designs, microarray experiment designs, gene expression data and data analysis results. We describe RMAGEML, a new Bioconductor package that provides a link between cDNA microarray data stored in MAGE-ML format and the Bioconductor framework for preprocessing, visualization and analysis of microarray experiments. http://www.bioconductor.org. Open Source.

Analyzing latent state-trait and multiple-indicator latent growth curve models as multilevel structural equation models

PubMed Central

Geiser, Christian; Bishop, Jacob; Lockhart, Ginger; Shiffman, Saul; Grenard, Jerry L.

2013-01-01

Latent state-trait (LST) and latent growth curve (LGC) models are frequently used in the analysis of longitudinal data. Although it is well-known that standard single-indicator LGC models can be analyzed within either the structural equation modeling (SEM) or multilevel (ML; hierarchical linear modeling) frameworks, few researchers realize that LST and multivariate LGC models, which use multiple indicators at each time point, can also be specified as ML models. In the present paper, we demonstrate that using the ML-SEM rather than the SL-SEM framework to estimate the parameters of these models can be practical when the study involves (1) a large number of time points, (2) individually-varying times of observation, (3) unequally spaced time intervals, and/or (4) incomplete data. Despite the practical advantages of the ML-SEM approach under these circumstances, there are also some limitations that researchers should consider. We present an application to an ecological momentary assessment study (N = 158 youths with an average of 23.49 observations of positive mood per person) using the software Mplus (Muthén and Muthén, 1998–2012) and discuss advantages and disadvantages of using the ML-SEM approach to estimate the parameters of LST and multiple-indicator LGC models. PMID:24416023

A Model-Based Diagnosis Framework for Distributed Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-04

of centralized compilation techniques as applied to [6] Marco Cadoli and Francesco M . Donini . A survey several areas, of which diagnosis is one. Our...for doing so than the family for that (1) Vi 1 ... m . Xi E 2V; (2) V ui(Xi[Xi E 1). tree-structured systems. For simplicity of notation, we will that (i...our diagnosis synthesis diagnoses using a likelihood weight ri assigned to each as- algorithm. sumable Ai, i = I, ... m . Using the likelihood algebra

Maximum likelihood estimation and EM algorithm of Copas-like selection model for publication bias correction.

PubMed

Ning, Jing; Chen, Yong; Piao, Jin

2017-07-01

Publication bias occurs when the published research results are systematically unrepresentative of the population of studies that have been conducted, and is a potential threat to meaningful meta-analysis. The Copas selection model provides a flexible framework for correcting estimates and offers considerable insight into the publication bias. However, maximizing the observed likelihood under the Copas selection model is challenging because the observed data contain very little information on the latent variable. In this article, we study a Copas-like selection model and propose an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation based on the full likelihood. Empirical simulation studies show that the EM algorithm and its associated inferential procedure performs well and avoids the non-convergence problem when maximizing the observed likelihood. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modeling gene expression measurement error: a quasi-likelihood approach

PubMed Central

Strimmer, Korbinian

2003-01-01

Background Using suitable error models for gene expression measurements is essential in the statistical analysis of microarray data. However, the true probabilistic model underlying gene expression intensity readings is generally not known. Instead, in currently used approaches some simple parametric model is assumed (usually a transformed normal distribution) or the empirical distribution is estimated. However, both these strategies may not be optimal for gene expression data, as the non-parametric approach ignores known structural information whereas the fully parametric models run the risk of misspecification. A further related problem is the choice of a suitable scale for the model (e.g. observed vs. log-scale). Results Here a simple semi-parametric model for gene expression measurement error is presented. In this approach inference is based an approximate likelihood function (the extended quasi-likelihood). Only partial knowledge about the unknown true distribution is required to construct this function. In case of gene expression this information is available in the form of the postulated (e.g. quadratic) variance structure of the data. As the quasi-likelihood behaves (almost) like a proper likelihood, it allows for the estimation of calibration and variance parameters, and it is also straightforward to obtain corresponding approximate confidence intervals. Unlike most other frameworks, it also allows analysis on any preferred scale, i.e. both on the original linear scale as well as on a transformed scale. It can also be employed in regression approaches to model systematic (e.g. array or dye) effects. Conclusions The quasi-likelihood framework provides a simple and versatile approach to analyze gene expression data that does not make any strong distributional assumptions about the underlying error model. For several simulated as well as real data sets it provides a better fit to the data than competing models. In an example it also improved the power of tests to identify differential expression. PMID:12659637

CONSTRUCTING A FLEXIBLE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION FOR SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Czekala, Ian; Andrews, Sean M.; Mandel, Kaisey S.

2015-10-20

We present a modular, extensible likelihood framework for spectroscopic inference based on synthetic model spectra. The subtraction of an imperfect model from a continuously sampled spectrum introduces covariance between adjacent datapoints (pixels) into the residual spectrum. For the high signal-to-noise data with large spectral range that is commonly employed in stellar astrophysics, that covariant structure can lead to dramatically underestimated parameter uncertainties (and, in some cases, biases). We construct a likelihood function that accounts for the structure of the covariance matrix, utilizing the machinery of Gaussian process kernels. This framework specifically addresses the common problem of mismatches in model spectralmore » line strengths (with respect to data) due to intrinsic model imperfections (e.g., in the atomic/molecular databases or opacity prescriptions) by developing a novel local covariance kernel formalism that identifies and self-consistently downweights pathological spectral line “outliers.” By fitting many spectra in a hierarchical manner, these local kernels provide a mechanism to learn about and build data-driven corrections to synthetic spectral libraries. An open-source software implementation of this approach is available at http://iancze.github.io/Starfish, including a sophisticated probabilistic scheme for spectral interpolation when using model libraries that are sparsely sampled in the stellar parameters. We demonstrate some salient features of the framework by fitting the high-resolution V-band spectrum of WASP-14, an F5 dwarf with a transiting exoplanet, and the moderate-resolution K-band spectrum of Gliese 51, an M5 field dwarf.« less

Evaluation of selective control information detection scheme in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing-based radio-over-fiber and visible light communication links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalarmelina, Carlos A.; Adegbite, Saheed A.; Pereira, Esequiel da V.; Nunes, Reginaldo B.; Rocha, Helder R. O.; Segatto, Marcelo E. V.; Silva, Jair A. L.

2017-05-01

Block-level detection is required to decode what may be classified as selective control information (SCI) such as control format indicator in 4G-long-term evolution systems. Using optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing over radio-over-fiber (RoF) links, we report the experimental evaluation of an SCI detection scheme based on a time-domain correlation (TDC) technique in comparison with the conventional maximum likelihood (ML) approach. When compared with the ML method, it is shown that the TDC method improves detection performance over both 20 and 40 km of standard single mode fiber (SSMF) links. We also report a performance analysis of the TDC scheme in noisy visible light communication channel models after propagation through 40 km of SSMF. Experimental and simulation results confirm that the TDC method is attractive for practical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing-based RoF and fiber-wireless systems. Unlike the ML method, another key benefit of the TDC is that it requires no channel estimation.

Joint Symbol Timing and CFO Estimation for OFDM/OQAM Systems in Multipath Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fusco, Tilde; Petrella, Angelo; Tanda, Mario

2009-12-01

The problem of data-aided synchronization for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems based on offset quadrature amplitude modulation (OQAM) in multipath channels is considered. In particular, the joint maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator for carrier-frequency offset (CFO), amplitudes, phases, and delays, exploiting a short known preamble, is derived. The ML estimators for phases and amplitudes are in closed form. Moreover, under the assumption that the CFO is sufficiently small, a closed form approximate ML (AML) CFO estimator is obtained. By exploiting the obtained closed form solutions a cost function whose peaks provide an estimate of the delays is derived. In particular, the symbol timing (i.e., the delay of the first multipath component) is obtained by considering the smallest estimated delay. The performance of the proposed joint AML estimator is assessed via computer simulations and compared with that achieved by the joint AML estimator designed for AWGN channel and that achieved by a previously derived joint estimator for OFDM systems.

ML Frame Synchronization for OFDM Systems Using a Known Pilot and Cyclic Prefixes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huh, Heon

Orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) is a popular air interface technology that is adopted as a standard modulation scheme for 4G communication systems owing to its excellent spectral efficiency. For OFDM systems, synchronization problems have received much attention along with peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) reduction. In addition to frequency offset estimation, frame synchronization is a challenging problem that must be solved to achieve optimal system performance. In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood (ML) frame synchronizer for OFDM systems. The synchronizer exploits a synchronization word and cyclic prefixes together to improve the synchronization performance. Numerical results show that the performance of the proposed frame synchronizer is better than that of conventional schemes. The proposed synchronizer can be used as a reference for evaluating the performance of other suboptimal frame synchronizers. We also modify the proposed frame synchronizer to reduce the implementation complexity and propose a near-ML synchronizer for time-varying fading channels.

Fitting distributions to microbial contamination data collected with an unequal probability sampling design.

PubMed

Williams, M S; Ebel, E D; Cao, Y

2013-01-01

The fitting of statistical distributions to microbial sampling data is a common application in quantitative microbiology and risk assessment applications. An underlying assumption of most fitting techniques is that data are collected with simple random sampling, which is often times not the case. This study develops a weighted maximum likelihood estimation framework that is appropriate for microbiological samples that are collected with unequal probabilities of selection. A weighted maximum likelihood estimation framework is proposed for microbiological samples that are collected with unequal probabilities of selection. Two examples, based on the collection of food samples during processing, are provided to demonstrate the method and highlight the magnitude of biases in the maximum likelihood estimator when data are inappropriately treated as a simple random sample. Failure to properly weight samples to account for how data are collected can introduce substantial biases into inferences drawn from the data. The proposed methodology will reduce or eliminate an important source of bias in inferences drawn from the analysis of microbial data. This will also make comparisons between studies and the combination of results from different studies more reliable, which is important for risk assessment applications. © 2012 No claim to US Government works.

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick Charles

1985-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

The evolution of autodigestion in the mushroom family Psathyrellaceae (Agaricales) inferred from Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian methods.

PubMed

Nagy, László G; Urban, Alexander; Orstadius, Leif; Papp, Tamás; Larsson, Ellen; Vágvölgyi, Csaba

2010-12-01

Recently developed comparative phylogenetic methods offer a wide spectrum of applications in evolutionary biology, although it is generally accepted that their statistical properties are incompletely known. Here, we examine and compare the statistical power of the ML and Bayesian methods with regard to selection of best-fit models of fruiting-body evolution and hypothesis testing of ancestral states on a real-life data set of a physiological trait (autodigestion) in the family Psathyrellaceae. Our phylogenies are based on the first multigene data set generated for the family. Two different coding regimes (binary and multistate) and two data sets differing in taxon sampling density are examined. The Bayesian method outperformed Maximum Likelihood with regard to statistical power in all analyses. This is particularly evident if the signal in the data is weak, i.e. in cases when the ML approach does not provide support to choose among competing hypotheses. Results based on binary and multistate coding differed only modestly, although it was evident that multistate analyses were less conclusive in all cases. It seems that increased taxon sampling density has favourable effects on inference of ancestral states, while model parameters are influenced to a smaller extent. The model best fitting our data implies that the rate of losses of deliquescence equals zero, although model selection in ML does not provide proper support to reject three of the four candidate models. The results also support the hypothesis that non-deliquescence (lack of autodigestion) has been ancestral in Psathyrellaceae, and that deliquescent fruiting bodies represent the preferred state, having evolved independently several times during evolution. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MRL and SuperFine+MRL: new supertree methods

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Supertree methods combine trees on subsets of the full taxon set together to produce a tree on the entire set of taxa. Of the many supertree methods, the most popular is MRP (Matrix Representation with Parsimony), a method that operates by first encoding the input set of source trees by a large matrix (the "MRP matrix") over {0,1, ?}, and then running maximum parsimony heuristics on the MRP matrix. Experimental studies evaluating MRP in comparison to other supertree methods have established that for large datasets, MRP generally produces trees of equal or greater accuracy than other methods, and can run on larger datasets. A recent development in supertree methods is SuperFine+MRP, a method that combines MRP with a divide-and-conquer approach, and produces more accurate trees in less time than MRP. In this paper we consider a new approach for supertree estimation, called MRL (Matrix Representation with Likelihood). MRL begins with the same MRP matrix, but then analyzes the MRP matrix using heuristics (such as RAxML) for 2-state Maximum Likelihood. Results We compared MRP and SuperFine+MRP with MRL and SuperFine+MRL on simulated and biological datasets. We examined the MRP and MRL scores of each method on a wide range of datasets, as well as the resulting topological accuracy of the trees. Our experimental results show that MRL, coupled with a very good ML heuristic such as RAxML, produced more accurate trees than MRP, and MRL scores were more strongly correlated with topological accuracy than MRP scores. Conclusions SuperFine+MRP, when based upon a good MP heuristic, such as TNT, produces among the best scores for both MRP and MRL, and is generally faster and more topologically accurate than other supertree methods we tested. PMID:22280525

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, L. W., Jr.

2003-01-01

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Optimal HRF and smoothing parameters for fMRI time series within an autoregressive modeling framework.

PubMed

Galka, Andreas; Siniatchkin, Michael; Stephani, Ulrich; Groening, Kristina; Wolff, Stephan; Bosch-Bayard, Jorge; Ozaki, Tohru

2010-12-01

The analysis of time series obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) may be approached by fitting predictive parametric models, such as nearest-neighbor autoregressive models with exogeneous input (NNARX). As a part of the modeling procedure, it is possible to apply instantaneous linear transformations to the data. Spatial smoothing, a common preprocessing step, may be interpreted as such a transformation. The autoregressive parameters may be constrained, such that they provide a response behavior that corresponds to the canonical haemodynamic response function (HRF). We present an algorithm for estimating the parameters of the linear transformations and of the HRF within a rigorous maximum-likelihood framework. Using this approach, an optimal amount of both the spatial smoothing and the HRF can be estimated simultaneously for a given fMRI data set. An example from a motor-task experiment is discussed. It is found that, for this data set, weak, but non-zero, spatial smoothing is optimal. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that activated regions can be estimated within the maximum-likelihood framework.

An artifact caused by undersampling optimal trees in supermatrix analyses of locally sampled characters.

PubMed

Simmons, Mark P; Goloboff, Pablo A

2013-10-01

Empirical and simulated examples are used to demonstrate an artifact caused by undersampling optimal trees in data matrices that consist mostly or entirely of locally sampled (as opposed to globally, for most or all terminals) characters. The artifact is that unsupported clades consisting entirely of terminals scored for the same locally sampled partition may be resolved and assigned high resampling support-despite their being properly unsupported (i.e., not resolved in the strict consensus of all optimal trees). This artifact occurs despite application of random-addition sequences for stepwise terminal addition. The artifact is not necessarily obviated with thorough conventional branch swapping methods (even tree-bisection-reconnection) when just a single tree is held, as is sometimes implemented in parsimony bootstrap pseudoreplicates, and in every GARLI, PhyML, and RAxML pseudoreplicate and search for the most likely tree for the matrix as a whole. Hence GARLI, RAxML, and PhyML-based likelihood results require extra scrutiny, particularly when they provide high resolution and support for clades that are entirely unsupported by methods that perform more thorough searches, as in most parsimony analyses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Restoration of a single superresolution image from several blurred, noisy, and undersampled measured images.

PubMed

Elad, M; Feuer, A

1997-01-01

The three main tools in the single image restoration theory are the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimator, and the set theoretic approach using projection onto convex sets (POCS). This paper utilizes the above known tools to propose a unified methodology toward the more complicated problem of superresolution restoration. In the superresolution restoration problem, an improved resolution image is restored from several geometrically warped, blurred, noisy and downsampled measured images. The superresolution restoration problem is modeled and analyzed from the ML, the MAP, and POCS points of view, yielding a generalization of the known superresolution restoration methods. The proposed restoration approach is general but assumes explicit knowledge of the linear space- and time-variant blur, the (additive Gaussian) noise, the different measured resolutions, and the (smooth) motion characteristics. A hybrid method combining the simplicity of the ML and the incorporation of nonellipsoid constraints is presented, giving improved restoration performance, compared with the ML and the POCS approaches. The hybrid method is shown to converge to the unique optimal solution of a new definition of the optimization problem. Superresolution restoration from motionless measurements is also discussed. Simulations demonstrate the power of the proposed methodology.

Performance of maximum likelihood mixture models to estimate nursery habitat contributions to fish stocks: a case study on sea bream Sparus aurata

PubMed Central

Darnaude, Audrey M.

2016-01-01

Background Mixture models (MM) can be used to describe mixed stocks considering three sets of parameters: the total number of contributing sources, their chemical baseline signatures and their mixing proportions. When all nursery sources have been previously identified and sampled for juvenile fish to produce baseline nursery-signatures, mixing proportions are the only unknown set of parameters to be estimated from the mixed-stock data. Otherwise, the number of sources, as well as some/all nursery-signatures may need to be also estimated from the mixed-stock data. Our goal was to assess bias and uncertainty in these MM parameters when estimated using unconditional maximum likelihood approaches (ML-MM), under several incomplete sampling and nursery-signature separation scenarios. Methods We used a comprehensive dataset containing otolith elemental signatures of 301 juvenile Sparus aurata, sampled in three contrasting years (2008, 2010, 2011), from four distinct nursery habitats. (Mediterranean lagoons) Artificial nursery-source and mixed-stock datasets were produced considering: five different sampling scenarios where 0–4 lagoons were excluded from the nursery-source dataset and six nursery-signature separation scenarios that simulated data separated 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5 standard deviations among nursery-signature centroids. Bias (BI) and uncertainty (SE) were computed to assess reliability for each of the three sets of MM parameters. Results Both bias and uncertainty in mixing proportion estimates were low (BI ≤ 0.14, SE ≤ 0.06) when all nursery-sources were sampled but exhibited large variability among cohorts and increased with the number of non-sampled sources up to BI = 0.24 and SE = 0.11. Bias and variability in baseline signature estimates also increased with the number of non-sampled sources, but tended to be less biased, and more uncertain than mixing proportion ones, across all sampling scenarios (BI < 0.13, SE < 0.29). Increasing separation among nursery signatures improved reliability of mixing proportion estimates, but lead to non-linear responses in baseline signature parameters. Low uncertainty, but a consistent underestimation bias affected the estimated number of nursery sources, across all incomplete sampling scenarios. Discussion ML-MM produced reliable estimates of mixing proportions and nursery-signatures under an important range of incomplete sampling and nursery-signature separation scenarios. This method failed, however, in estimating the true number of nursery sources, reflecting a pervasive issue affecting mixture models, within and beyond the ML framework. Large differences in bias and uncertainty found among cohorts were linked to differences in separation of chemical signatures among nursery habitats. Simulation approaches, such as those presented here, could be useful to evaluate sensitivity of MM results to separation and variability in nursery-signatures for other species, habitats or cohorts. PMID:27761305

A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes

Treesearch

D. B. McWethy; P. E. Higuera; C. Whitlock; T. T. Veblen; D. M. J. S. Bowman; G. J. Cary; S. G. Haberle; R. E. Keane; B. D. Maxwell; M. S. McGlone; G. L. W. Perry; J. M. Wilmshurst

2013-01-01

The increased incidence of large fires around much of the world in recent decades raises questions about human and non-human drivers of fire and the likelihood of increased fire activity in the future. The purpose of this paper is to outline a conceptual framework for examining where human-set fires and feedbacks are likely to be most pronounced in temperate forests...

The complete mitochondrial genome structure of the jaguar (Panthera onca).

PubMed

Caragiulo, Anthony; Dougherty, Eric; Soto, Sofia; Rabinowitz, Salisa; Amato, George

2016-01-01

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the largest felid in the Western hemisphere, and the only member of the Panthera genus in the New World. The jaguar inhabits most countries within Central and South America, and is considered near threatened by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. This study represents the first sequence of the entire jaguar mitogenome, which was the only Panthera mitogenome that had not been sequenced. The jaguar mitogenome is 17,049 bases and possesses the same molecular structure as other felid mitogenomes. Bayesian inference (BI) and maximum likelihood (ML) were used to determine the phylogenetic placement of the jaguar within the Panthera genus. Both BI and ML analyses revealed the jaguar to be sister to the tiger/leopard/snow leopard clade.

Improvement of range spatial resolution of medical ultrasound imaging by element-domain signal processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, Hideyuki

2017-07-01

The range spatial resolution is an important factor determining the image quality in ultrasonic imaging. The range spatial resolution in ultrasonic imaging depends on the ultrasonic pulse length, which is determined by the mechanical response of the piezoelectric element in an ultrasonic probe. To improve the range spatial resolution without replacing the transducer element, in the present study, methods based on maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and multiple signal classification (MUSIC) were proposed. The proposed methods were applied to echo signals received by individual transducer elements in an ultrasonic probe. The basic experimental results showed that the axial half maximum of the echo from a string phantom was improved from 0.21 mm (conventional method) to 0.086 mm (ML) and 0.094 mm (MUSIC).

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

PubMed Central

Katz, Rachel A.; Richgels, Katherine L.D.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Grant, Evan H.C.

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge. PMID:27983501

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management.

PubMed

Russell, Robin E; Katz, Rachel A; Richgels, Katherine L D; Walsh, Daniel P; Grant, Evan H C

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2001-01-01

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.

A framework for modeling emerging diseases to inform management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Katz, Rachel A.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

Understanding the coherence of the severity effect and optimism phenomena: Lessons from attention.

PubMed

Harris, Adam J L

2017-04-01

Claims that optimism is a near-universal characteristic of human judgment seem to be at odds with recent results from the judgment and decision making literature suggesting that the likelihood of negative outcomes are overestimated relative to neutral outcomes. In an attempt to reconcile these seemingly contrasting phenomena, inspiration is drawn from the attention literature in which there is evidence that both positive and negative stimuli can have attentional privilege relative to neutral stimuli. This result provides a framework within which I consider three example phenomena that purport to demonstrate that people's likelihood estimates are optimistic: Wishful thinking; Unrealistic comparative optimism and Asymmetric belief updating. The framework clarifies the relationships between these phenomena and stimulates future research questions. Generally, whilst results from the first two phenomena appear reconcilable in this conceptualisation, further research is required in reconciling the third. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolution of larval life mode of Oecophoridae (Lepidoptera: Gelechioidea) inferred from molecular phylogeny.

PubMed

Kim, Sora; Kaila, Lauri; Lee, Seunghwan

2016-08-01

Phylogenetic relationships within family Oecophoridae have been poorly understood. Consequently the subfamily and genus level classifications with this family problematic. A comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of Oecophoridae, the concealer moths, was performed based on analysis of 4444 base pairs of mitochondrial COI, nuclear ribosomal RNA genes (18S and 28S) and nuclear protein coding genes (IDH, MDH, Rps5, EF1a and wingless) for 82 taxa. Data were analyzed using maximum likelihood (ML), parsimony (MP) and Bayesian (BP) phylogenetic frameworks. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that (i) genera Casmara, Tyrolimnas and Pseudodoxia did not belong to Oecophoridae, suggesting that Oecophoridae s. authors was not monophyletic; (ii) other oecophorids comprising two subfamilies, Pleurotinae and Oecophorinae, were nested within the same clade, and (iii) Martyringa, Acryptolechia and Periacmini were clustered with core Xyloryctidae. They appeared to be sister lineage with core Oecophoridae. BayesTraits were implemented to explore the ancestral character states to infer historical microhabitat patterns and sheltering strategy of larvae. Reconstruction of ancestral microhabitat of oecophorids indicated that oecophorids might have evolved from dried plant feeders and further convergently specialized. The ancestral larva sheltering strategy of oecophorids might have used a silk tube by making itself, shifting from mining leaves. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Massive optimal data compression and density estimation for scalable, likelihood-free inference in cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsing, Justin; Wandelt, Benjamin; Feeney, Stephen

2018-07-01

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from any likelihood assumptions or approximations. Likelihood-free inference generically involves simulating mock data and comparing to the observed data; this comparison in data space suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires compression of the data to a small number of summary statistics to be tractable. In this paper, we use massive asymptotically optimal data compression to reduce the dimensionality of the data space to just one number per parameter, providing a natural and optimal framework for summary statistic choice for likelihood-free inference. Secondly, we present the first cosmological application of Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference (DELFI), which learns a parametrized model for joint distribution of data and parameters, yielding both the parameter posterior and the model evidence. This approach is conceptually simple, requires less tuning than traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approaches to likelihood-free inference and can give high-fidelity posteriors from orders of magnitude fewer forward simulations. As an additional bonus, it enables parameter inference and Bayesian model comparison simultaneously. We demonstrate DELFI with massive data compression on an analysis of the joint light-curve analysis supernova data, as a simple validation case study. We show that high-fidelity posterior inference is possible for full-scale cosmological data analyses with as few as ˜104 simulations, with substantial scope for further improvement, demonstrating the scalability of likelihood-free inference to large and complex cosmological data sets.

An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

2017-12-01

Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

Modular modelling with Physiome standards

PubMed Central

Nickerson, David P.; Nielsen, Poul M. F.; Hunter, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Key points The complexity of computational models is increasing, supported by research in modelling tools and frameworks. But relatively little thought has gone into design principles for complex models.We propose a set of design principles for complex model construction with the Physiome standard modelling protocol CellML.By following the principles, models are generated that are extensible and are themselves suitable for reuse in larger models of increasing complexity.We illustrate these principles with examples including an architectural prototype linking, for the first time, electrophysiology, thermodynamically compliant metabolism, signal transduction, gene regulation and synthetic biology.The design principles complement other Physiome research projects, facilitating the application of virtual experiment protocols and model analysis techniques to assist the modelling community in creating libraries of composable, characterised and simulatable quantitative descriptions of physiology. Abstract The ability to produce and customise complex computational models has great potential to have a positive impact on human health. As the field develops towards whole‐cell models and linking such models in multi‐scale frameworks to encompass tissue, organ, or organism levels, reuse of previous modelling efforts will become increasingly necessary. Any modelling group wishing to reuse existing computational models as modules for their own work faces many challenges in the context of construction, storage, retrieval, documentation and analysis of such modules. Physiome standards, frameworks and tools seek to address several of these challenges, especially for models expressed in the modular protocol CellML. Aside from providing a general ability to produce modules, there has been relatively little research work on architectural principles of CellML models that will enable reuse at larger scales. To complement and support the existing tools and frameworks, we develop a set of principles to address this consideration. The principles are illustrated with examples that couple electrophysiology, signalling, metabolism, gene regulation and synthetic biology, together forming an architectural prototype for whole‐cell modelling (including human intervention) in CellML. Such models illustrate how testable units of quantitative biophysical simulation can be constructed. Finally, future relationships between modular models so constructed and Physiome frameworks and tools are discussed, with particular reference to how such frameworks and tools can in turn be extended to complement and gain more benefit from the results of applying the principles. PMID:27353233

An Ecosystem Evaluation Framework for Global Seamount Conservation and Management

PubMed Central

Taranto, Gerald H.; Kvile, Kristina Ø.; Pitcher, Tony J.; Morato, Telmo

2012-01-01

In the last twenty years, several global targets for protection of marine biodiversity have been adopted but have failed. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims at preserving 10% of all the marine biomes by 2020. For achieving this goal, ecologically or biologically significant areas (EBSA) have to be identified in all biogeographic regions. However, the methodologies for identifying the best suitable areas are still to be agreed. Here, we propose a framework for applying the CBD criteria to locate potential ecologically or biologically significant seamount areas based on the best information currently available. The framework combines the likelihood of a seamount constituting an EBSA and its level of human impact and can be used at global, regional and local scales. This methodology allows the classification of individual seamounts into four major portfolio conservation categories which can help optimize management efforts toward the protection of the most suitable areas. The framework was tested against 1000 dummy seamounts and satisfactorily assigned seamounts to proper EBSA and threats categories. Additionally, the framework was applied to eight case study seamounts that were included in three out of four portfolio categories: areas highly likely to be identified as EBSA with high degree of threat; areas highly likely to be EBSA with low degree of threat; and areas with a low likelihood of being EBSA with high degree of threat. This framework will allow managers to identify seamount EBSAs and to prioritize their policies in terms of protecting undisturbed areas, disturbed areas for recovery of habitats and species, or both based on their management objectives. It also identifies seamount EBSAs and threats considering different ecological groups in both pelagic and benthic communities. Therefore, this framework may represent an important tool to mitigate seamount biodiversity loss and to achieve the 2020 CBD goals. PMID:22905190

An ecosystem evaluation framework for global seamount conservation and management.

PubMed

Taranto, Gerald H; Kvile, Kristina Ø; Pitcher, Tony J; Morato, Telmo

2012-01-01

In the last twenty years, several global targets for protection of marine biodiversity have been adopted but have failed. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims at preserving 10% of all the marine biomes by 2020. For achieving this goal, ecologically or biologically significant areas (EBSA) have to be identified in all biogeographic regions. However, the methodologies for identifying the best suitable areas are still to be agreed. Here, we propose a framework for applying the CBD criteria to locate potential ecologically or biologically significant seamount areas based on the best information currently available. The framework combines the likelihood of a seamount constituting an EBSA and its level of human impact and can be used at global, regional and local scales. This methodology allows the classification of individual seamounts into four major portfolio conservation categories which can help optimize management efforts toward the protection of the most suitable areas. The framework was tested against 1000 dummy seamounts and satisfactorily assigned seamounts to proper EBSA and threats categories. Additionally, the framework was applied to eight case study seamounts that were included in three out of four portfolio categories: areas highly likely to be identified as EBSA with high degree of threat; areas highly likely to be EBSA with low degree of threat; and areas with a low likelihood of being EBSA with high degree of threat. This framework will allow managers to identify seamount EBSAs and to prioritize their policies in terms of protecting undisturbed areas, disturbed areas for recovery of habitats and species, or both based on their management objectives. It also identifies seamount EBSAs and threats considering different ecological groups in both pelagic and benthic communities. Therefore, this framework may represent an important tool to mitigate seamount biodiversity loss and to achieve the 2020 CBD goals.

Oil Spills and Marine Mammals in British Columbia, Canada: Development and Application of a Risk-Based Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

Jarvela Rosenberger, Adrianne L; MacDuffee, Misty; Rosenberger, Andrew G J; Ross, Peter S

2017-07-01

Marine mammals are inherently vulnerable to oil spills. We developed a conceptual framework to evaluate the impacts of potential oil exposure on marine mammals and applied it to 21 species inhabiting coastal British Columbia (BC), Canada. Oil spill vulnerability was determined by examining both the likelihood of species-specific (individual) oil exposure and the consequent likelihood of population-level effects. Oil exposure pathways, ecology, and physiological characteristics were first used to assign species-specific vulnerability rankings. Baleen whales were found to be highly vulnerable due to blowhole breathing, surface filter feeding, and invertebrate prey. Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) were ranked as highly vulnerable due to their time spent at the ocean surface, dense pelage, and benthic feeding techniques. Species-specific vulnerabilities were considered to estimate the likelihood of population-level effects occurring after oil exposure. Killer whale (Orcinus orca) populations were deemed at highest risk due to small population sizes, complex social structure, long lives, slow reproductive turnover, and dietary specialization. Finally, we related the species-specific and population-level vulnerabilities. In BC, vulnerability was deemed highest for Northern and Southern Resident killer whales and sea otters, followed by Bigg's killer whales and Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus). Our findings challenge the typical "indicator species" approach routinely used and underscore the need to examine marine mammals at a species and population level for risk-based oil spill predictions. This conceptual framework can be combined with spill probabilities and volumes to develop more robust risk assessments and may be applied elsewhere to identify vulnerability themes for marine mammals.

Receiver design for SPAD-based VLC systems under Poisson-Gaussian mixed noise model.

PubMed

Mao, Tianqi; Wang, Zhaocheng; Wang, Qi

2017-01-23

Single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) is a promising photosensor because of its high sensitivity to optical signals in weak illuminance environment. Recently, it has drawn much attention from researchers in visible light communications (VLC). However, existing literature only deals with the simplified channel model, which only considers the effects of Poisson noise introduced by SPAD, but neglects other noise sources. Specifically, when an analog SPAD detector is applied, there exists Gaussian thermal noise generated by the transimpedance amplifier (TIA) and the digital-to-analog converter (D/A). Therefore, in this paper, we propose an SPAD-based VLC system with pulse-amplitude-modulation (PAM) under Poisson-Gaussian mixed noise model, where Gaussian-distributed thermal noise at the receiver is also investigated. The closed-form conditional likelihood of received signals is derived using the Laplace transform and the saddle-point approximation method, and the corresponding quasi-maximum-likelihood (quasi-ML) detector is proposed. Furthermore, the Poisson-Gaussian-distributed signals are converted to Gaussian variables with the aid of the generalized Anscombe transform (GAT), leading to an equivalent additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel, and a hard-decision-based detector is invoked. Simulation results demonstrate that, the proposed GAT-based detector can reduce the computational complexity with marginal performance loss compared with the proposed quasi-ML detector, and both detectors are capable of accurately demodulating the SPAD-based PAM signals.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Tests for Polyuria in Lithium-Treated Patients.

PubMed

Kinahan, James Conor; NiChorcorain, Aoife; Cunningham, Sean; Freyne, Aideen; Cooney, Colm; Barry, Siobhan; Kelly, Brendan D

2015-08-01

In lithium-treated patients, polyuria increases the risk of dehydration and lithium toxicity. If detected early, it is reversible. Despite its prevalence and associated morbidity in clinical practice, it remains underrecognized and therefore undertreated. The 24-hour urine collection is limited by its convenience and practicality. This study explores the diagnostic accuracy of alternative tests such as questionnaires on subjective polyuria, polydipsia, nocturia (dichotomous and ordinal responses), early morning urine sample osmolality (EMUO), and fluid intake record (FIR). This is a cross-sectional study of 179 lithium-treated patients attending a general adult and an old age psychiatry service. Participants completed the tests after completing an accurate 24-hour urine collection. The diagnostic accuracy of the individual tests was explored using the appropriate statistical techniques. Seventy-nine participants completed all of the tests. Polydipsia severity, EMUO, and FIR significantly differentiated the participants with polyuria (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.646, 0.760, and 0.846, respectively). Of the tests investigated, the FIR made the largest significant change in the probability that a patient experiences polyuria (<2000 mL/24 hours; interval likelihood ratio, 0.18 and >3500 mL/24 hours; interval likelihood ratio, 14). Symptomatic questioning, EMUO, and an FIR could be used in clinical practice to inform the prescriber of the probability that a lithium-treated patient is experiencing polyuria.

Gaussian Mixture Models of Between-Source Variation for Likelihood Ratio Computation from Multivariate Data

PubMed Central

Franco-Pedroso, Javier; Ramos, Daniel; Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Joaquin

2016-01-01

In forensic science, trace evidence found at a crime scene and on suspect has to be evaluated from the measurements performed on them, usually in the form of multivariate data (for example, several chemical compound or physical characteristics). In order to assess the strength of that evidence, the likelihood ratio framework is being increasingly adopted. Several methods have been derived in order to obtain likelihood ratios directly from univariate or multivariate data by modelling both the variation appearing between observations (or features) coming from the same source (within-source variation) and that appearing between observations coming from different sources (between-source variation). In the widely used multivariate kernel likelihood-ratio, the within-source distribution is assumed to be normally distributed and constant among different sources and the between-source variation is modelled through a kernel density function (KDF). In order to better fit the observed distribution of the between-source variation, this paper presents a different approach in which a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used instead of a KDF. As it will be shown, this approach provides better-calibrated likelihood ratios as measured by the log-likelihood ratio cost (Cllr) in experiments performed on freely available forensic datasets involving different trace evidences: inks, glass fragments and car paints. PMID:26901680

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, L. W.

2002-01-01

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, a is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The Maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter alpha(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (P1) consistency (asymptotically unbiased). (P2) efficiency asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only he ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum-detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However. the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are attained in practice are investigated. The ML technique is then extended to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral parameter estimates based on the combination of data sets.

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling.

PubMed

Scheike, Thomas H; Juul, Anders

2004-04-01

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used to obtain information additional to the relative risk estimates of covariates.

Planck intermediate results. XVI. Profile likelihoods for cosmological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartlett, J. G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J. R.; Bouchet, F. R.; Burigana, C.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Christensen, P. R.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Couchot, F.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F. K.; Harrison, D. L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leonardi, R.; Liddle, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski∗, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G. W.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rouillé d'Orfeuil, B.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Spencer, L. D.; Spinelli, M.; Starck, J.-L.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; White, M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

2014-06-01

We explore the 2013 Planck likelihood function with a high-precision multi-dimensional minimizer (Minuit). This allows a refinement of the ΛCDM best-fit solution with respect to previously-released results, and the construction of frequentist confidence intervals using profile likelihoods. The agreement with the cosmological results from the Bayesian framework is excellent, demonstrating the robustness of the Planck results to the statistical methodology. We investigate the inclusion of neutrino masses, where more significant differences may appear due to the non-Gaussian nature of the posterior mass distribution. By applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription, we again obtain results very similar to those of the Bayesian methodology. However, the profile-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) combination (Planck+WP+highL) reveals a minimum well within the unphysical negative-mass region. We show that inclusion of the Planck CMB-lensing information regularizes this issue, and provide a robust frequentist upper limit ∑ mν ≤ 0.26 eV (95% confidence) from the CMB+lensing+BAO data combination.

Revisiting the phylogeny of Bombacoideae (Malvaceae): Novel relationships, morphologically cohesive clades, and a new tribal classification based on multilocus phylogenetic analyses.

PubMed

Carvalho-Sobrinho, Jefferson G; Alverson, William S; Alcantara, Suzana; Queiroz, Luciano P; Mota, Aline C; Baum, David A

2016-08-01

Bombacoideae (Malvaceae) is a clade of deciduous trees with a marked dominance in many forests, especially in the Neotropics. The historical lack of a well-resolved phylogenetic framework for Bombacoideae hinders studies in this ecologically important group. We reexamined phylogenetic relationships in this clade based on a matrix of 6465 nuclear (ETS, ITS) and plastid (matK, trnL-trnF, trnS-trnG) DNA characters. We used maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference to infer relationships among 108 species (∼70% of the total number of known species). We analyzed the evolution of selected morphological traits: trunk or branch prickles, calyx shape, endocarp type, seed shape, and seed number per fruit, using ML reconstructions of their ancestral states to identify possible synapomorphies for major clades. Novel phylogenetic relationships emerged from our analyses, including three major lineages marked by fruit or seed traits: the winged-seed clade (Bernoullia, Gyranthera, and Huberodendron), the spongy endocarp clade (Adansonia, Aguiaria, Catostemma, Cavanillesia, and Scleronema), and the Kapok clade (Bombax, Ceiba, Eriotheca, Neobuchia, Pachira, Pseudobombax, Rhodognaphalon, and Spirotheca). The Kapok clade, the most diverse lineage of the subfamily, includes sister relationships (i) between Pseudobombax and "Pochota fendleri" a historically incertae sedis taxon, and (ii) between the Paleotropical genera Bombax and Rhodognaphalon, implying just two bombacoid dispersals to the Old World, the other one involving Adansonia. This new phylogenetic framework offers new insights and a promising avenue for further evolutionary studies. In view of this information, we present a new tribal classification of the subfamily, accompanied by an identification key. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extending the BEAGLE library to a multi-FPGA platform

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Maximum Likelihood (ML)-based phylogenetic inference using Felsenstein’s pruning algorithm is a standard method for estimating the evolutionary relationships amongst a set of species based on DNA sequence data, and is used in popular applications such as RAxML, PHYLIP, GARLI, BEAST, and MrBayes. The Phylogenetic Likelihood Function (PLF) and its associated scaling and normalization steps comprise the computational kernel for these tools. These computations are data intensive but contain fine grain parallelism that can be exploited by coprocessor architectures such as FPGAs and GPUs. A general purpose API called BEAGLE has recently been developed that includes optimized implementations of Felsenstein’s pruning algorithm for various data parallel architectures. In this paper, we extend the BEAGLE API to a multiple Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)-based platform called the Convey HC-1. Results The core calculation of our implementation, which includes both the phylogenetic likelihood function (PLF) and the tree likelihood calculation, has an arithmetic intensity of 130 floating-point operations per 64 bytes of I/O, or 2.03 ops/byte. Its performance can thus be calculated as a function of the host platform’s peak memory bandwidth and the implementation’s memory efficiency, as 2.03 × peak bandwidth × memory efficiency. Our FPGA-based platform has a peak bandwidth of 76.8 GB/s and our implementation achieves a memory efficiency of approximately 50%, which gives an average throughput of 78 Gflops. This represents a ~40X speedup when compared with BEAGLE’s CPU implementation on a dual Xeon 5520 and 3X speedup versus BEAGLE’s GPU implementation on a Tesla T10 GPU for very large data sizes. The power consumption is 92 W, yielding a power efficiency of 1.7 Gflops per Watt. Conclusions The use of data parallel architectures to achieve high performance for likelihood-based phylogenetic inference requires high memory bandwidth and a design methodology that emphasizes high memory efficiency. To achieve this objective, we integrated 32 pipelined processing elements (PEs) across four FPGAs. For the design of each PE, we developed a specialized synthesis tool to generate a floating-point pipeline with resource and throughput constraints to match the target platform. We have found that using low-latency floating-point operators can significantly reduce FPGA area and still meet timing requirement on the target platform. We found that this design methodology can achieve performance that exceeds that of a GPU-based coprocessor. PMID:23331707

Multi-atlas segmentation for abdominal organs with Gaussian mixture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Ryan P.; Xu, Zhoubing; Lee, Christopher P.; Baucom, Rebeccah B.; Poulose, Benjamin K.; Abramson, Richard G.; Landman, Bennett A.

2015-03-01

Abdominal organ segmentation with clinically acquired computed tomography (CT) is drawing increasing interest in the medical imaging community. Gaussian mixture models (GMM) have been extensively used through medical segmentation, most notably in the brain for cerebrospinal fluid / gray matter / white matter differentiation. Because abdominal CT exhibit strong localized intensity characteristics, GMM have recently been incorporated in multi-stage abdominal segmentation algorithms. In the context of variable abdominal anatomy and rich algorithms, it is difficult to assess the marginal contribution of GMM. Herein, we characterize the efficacy of an a posteriori framework that integrates GMM of organ-wise intensity likelihood with spatial priors from multiple target-specific registered labels. In our study, we first manually labeled 100 CT images. Then, we assigned 40 images to use as training data for constructing target-specific spatial priors and intensity likelihoods. The remaining 60 images were evaluated as test targets for segmenting 12 abdominal organs. The overlap between the true and the automatic segmentations was measured by Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). A median improvement of 145% was achieved by integrating the GMM intensity likelihood against the specific spatial prior. The proposed framework opens the opportunities for abdominal organ segmentation by efficiently using both the spatial and appearance information from the atlases, and creates a benchmark for large-scale automatic abdominal segmentation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vrugt, Jasper A; Robinson, Bruce A; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented usingmore » the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.« less

A Parameter Estimation Scheme for Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) Algorithm Used in Precipitation Data Fusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Shugong; Liang, Xu

2013-01-01

A new approach is presented in this paper to effectively obtain parameter estimations for the Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) algorithm. This new approach has demonstrated promising potentials in deriving better data products based on data of different spatial scales and precisions. Our new approach employs a multi-objective (MO) parameter estimation scheme (called MO scheme hereafter), rather than using the conventional maximum likelihood scheme (called ML scheme) to estimate the MKS parameters. Unlike the ML scheme, the MO scheme is not simply built on strict statistical assumptions related to prediction errors and observation errors, rather, it directly associates the fused data of multiple scales with multiple objective functions in searching best parameter estimations for MKS through optimization. In the MO scheme, objective functions are defined to facilitate consistency among the fused data at multiscales and the input data at their original scales in terms of spatial patterns and magnitudes. The new approach is evaluated through a Monte Carlo experiment and a series of comparison analyses using synthetic precipitation data. Our results show that the MKS fused precipitation performs better using the MO scheme than that using the ML scheme. Particularly, improvements are significant compared to that using the ML scheme for the fused precipitation associated with fine spatial resolutions. This is mainly due to having more criteria and constraints involved in the MO scheme than those included in the ML scheme. The weakness of the original ML scheme that blindly puts more weights onto the data associated with finer resolutions is overcome in our new approach.

A Game Theoretical Approach to Hacktivism: Is Attack Likelihood a Product of Risks and Payoffs?

PubMed

Bodford, Jessica E; Kwan, Virginia S Y

2018-02-01

The current study examines hacktivism (i.e., hacking to convey a moral, ethical, or social justice message) through a general game theoretic framework-that is, as a product of costs and benefits. Given the inherent risk of carrying out a hacktivist attack (e.g., legal action, imprisonment), it would be rational for the user to weigh these risks against perceived benefits of carrying out the attack. As such, we examined computer science students' estimations of risks, payoffs, and attack likelihood through a game theoretic design. Furthermore, this study aims at constructing a descriptive profile of potential hacktivists, exploring two predicted covariates of attack decision making, namely, peer prevalence of hacking and sex differences. Contrary to expectations, results suggest that participants' estimations of attack likelihood stemmed solely from expected payoffs, rather than subjective risks. Peer prevalence significantly predicted increased payoffs and attack likelihood, suggesting an underlying descriptive norm in social networks. Notably, we observed no sex differences in the decision to attack, nor in the factors predicting attack likelihood. Implications for policymakers and the understanding and prevention of hacktivism are discussed, as are the possible ramifications of widely communicated payoffs over potential risks in hacking communities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wahl, Daniel E.; Yocky, David A.; Jakowatz, Jr., Charles V.

In previous research, two-pass repeat-geometry synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD) predominantly utilized the sample degree of coherence as a measure of the temporal change occurring between two complex-valued image collects. Previous coherence-based CCD approaches tend to show temporal change when there is none in areas of the image that have a low clutter-to-noise power ratio. Instead of employing the sample coherence magnitude as a change metric, in this paper, we derive a new maximum-likelihood (ML) temporal change estimate—the complex reflectance change detection (CRCD) metric to be used for SAR coherent temporal change detection. The new CRCD estimatormore » is a surprisingly simple expression, easy to implement, and optimal in the ML sense. As a result, this new estimate produces improved results in the coherent pair collects that we have tested.« less

Photo-z-SQL: Photometric redshift estimation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Róbert; Dobos, László; Budavári, Tamás; Szalay, Alexander S.; Csabai, István

2017-04-01

Photo-z-SQL is a flexible template-based photometric redshift estimation framework that can be seamlessly integrated into a SQL database (or DB) server and executed on demand in SQL. The DB integration eliminates the need to move large photometric datasets outside a database for redshift estimation, and uses the computational capabilities of DB hardware. Photo-z-SQL performs both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation and handles inputs of variable photometric filter sets and corresponding broad-band magnitudes.

A standardized framing for reporting protein identifications in mzIdentML 1.2

PubMed Central

Seymour, Sean L.; Farrah, Terry; Binz, Pierre-Alain; Chalkley, Robert J.; Cottrell, John S.; Searle, Brian C.; Tabb, David L.; Vizcaíno, Juan Antonio; Prieto, Gorka; Uszkoreit, Julian; Eisenacher, Martin; Martínez-Bartolomé, Salvador; Ghali, Fawaz; Jones, Andrew R.

2015-01-01

Inferring which protein species have been detected in bottom-up proteomics experiments has been a challenging problem for which solutions have been maturing over the past decade. While many inference approaches now function well in isolation, comparing and reconciling the results generated across different tools remains difficult. It presently stands as one of the greatest barriers in collaborative efforts such as the Human Proteome Project and public repositories like the PRoteomics IDEntifications (PRIDE) database. Here we present a framework for reporting protein identifications that seeks to improve capabilities for comparing results generated by different inference tools. This framework standardizes the terminology for describing protein identification results, associated with the HUPO-Proteomics Standards Initiative (PSI) mzIdentML standard, while still allowing for differing methodologies to reach that final state. It is proposed that developers of software for reporting identification results will adopt this terminology in their outputs. While the new terminology does not require any changes to the core mzIdentML model, it represents a significant change in practice, and, as such, the rules will be released via a new version of the mzIdentML specification (version 1.2) so that consumers of files are able to determine whether the new guidelines have been adopted by export software. PMID:25092112

Improving and Evaluating Nested Sampling Algorithm for Marginal Likelihood Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Zeng, X.; Wu, J.; Wang, D.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

With the growing impacts of climate change and human activities on the cycle of water resources, an increasing number of researches focus on the quantification of modeling uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a popular framework for quantifying conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. The ensemble prediction is generated by combining each plausible model's prediction, and each model is attached with a model weight which is determined by model's prior weight and marginal likelihood. Thus, the estimation of model's marginal likelihood is crucial for reliable and accurate BMA prediction. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed method for marginal likelihood estimation. The process of NSE is accomplished by searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm is often used for local sampling. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complicated parameter space. For improving the efficiency of NSE, it could be ideal to incorporate the robust and efficient sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling of NSE. The comparison results demonstrated that the improved NSE could improve the efficiency of marginal likelihood estimation significantly. However, both improved and original NSEs suffer from heavy instability. In addition, the heavy computation cost of huge number of model executions is overcome by using an adaptive sparse grid surrogates.

Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

A unifying framework for marginalized random intercept models of correlated binary outcomes

PubMed Central

Swihart, Bruce J.; Caffo, Brian S.; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M.

2013-01-01

We demonstrate that many current approaches for marginal modeling of correlated binary outcomes produce likelihoods that are equivalent to the copula-based models herein. These general copula models of underlying latent threshold random variables yield likelihood-based models for marginal fixed effects estimation and interpretation in the analysis of correlated binary data with exchangeable correlation structures. Moreover, we propose a nomenclature and set of model relationships that substantially elucidates the complex area of marginalized random intercept models for binary data. A diverse collection of didactic mathematical and numerical examples are given to illustrate concepts. PMID:25342871

Normal Theory Two-Stage ML Estimator When Data Are Missing at the Item Level

PubMed Central

Savalei, Victoria; Rhemtulla, Mijke

2017-01-01

In many modeling contexts, the variables in the model are linear composites of the raw items measured for each participant; for instance, regression and path analysis models rely on scale scores, and structural equation models often use parcels as indicators of latent constructs. Currently, no analytic estimation method exists to appropriately handle missing data at the item level. Item-level multiple imputation (MI), however, can handle such missing data straightforwardly. In this article, we develop an analytic approach for dealing with item-level missing data—that is, one that obtains a unique set of parameter estimates directly from the incomplete data set and does not require imputations. The proposed approach is a variant of the two-stage maximum likelihood (TSML) methodology, and it is the analytic equivalent of item-level MI. We compare the new TSML approach to three existing alternatives for handling item-level missing data: scale-level full information maximum likelihood, available-case maximum likelihood, and item-level MI. We find that the TSML approach is the best analytic approach, and its performance is similar to item-level MI. We recommend its implementation in popular software and its further study. PMID:29276371

Normal Theory Two-Stage ML Estimator When Data Are Missing at the Item Level.

PubMed

Savalei, Victoria; Rhemtulla, Mijke

2017-08-01

In many modeling contexts, the variables in the model are linear composites of the raw items measured for each participant; for instance, regression and path analysis models rely on scale scores, and structural equation models often use parcels as indicators of latent constructs. Currently, no analytic estimation method exists to appropriately handle missing data at the item level. Item-level multiple imputation (MI), however, can handle such missing data straightforwardly. In this article, we develop an analytic approach for dealing with item-level missing data-that is, one that obtains a unique set of parameter estimates directly from the incomplete data set and does not require imputations. The proposed approach is a variant of the two-stage maximum likelihood (TSML) methodology, and it is the analytic equivalent of item-level MI. We compare the new TSML approach to three existing alternatives for handling item-level missing data: scale-level full information maximum likelihood, available-case maximum likelihood, and item-level MI. We find that the TSML approach is the best analytic approach, and its performance is similar to item-level MI. We recommend its implementation in popular software and its further study.

Wall-based measurement features provides an improved IVUS coronary artery risk assessment when fused with plaque texture-based features during machine learning paradigm.

PubMed

Banchhor, Sumit K; Londhe, Narendra D; Araki, Tadashi; Saba, Luca; Radeva, Petia; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

2017-12-01

Planning of percutaneous interventional procedures involves a pre-screening and risk stratification of the coronary artery disease. Current screening tools use stand-alone plaque texture-based features and therefore lack the ability to stratify the risk. This IRB approved study presents a novel strategy for coronary artery disease risk stratification using an amalgamation of IVUS plaque texture-based and wall-based measurement features. Due to common genetic plaque makeup, carotid plaque burden was chosen as a gold standard for risk labels during training-phase of machine learning (ML) paradigm. Cross-validation protocol was adopted to compute the accuracy of the ML framework. A set of 59 plaque texture-based features was padded with six wall-based measurement features to show the improvement in stratification accuracy. The ML system was executed using principle component analysis-based framework for dimensionality reduction and uses support vector machine classifier for training and testing-phases. The ML system produced a stratification accuracy of 91.28%, demonstrating an improvement of 5.69% when wall-based measurement features were combined with plaque texture-based features. The fused system showed an improvement in mean sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and area under the curve by: 6.39%, 4.59%, 3.31% and 5.48%, respectively when compared to the stand-alone system. While meeting the stability criteria of 5%, the ML system also showed a high average feature retaining power and mean reliability of 89.32% and 98.24%, respectively. The ML system showed an improvement in risk stratification accuracy when the wall-based measurement features were fused with the plaque texture-based features. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel latent gaussian copula framework for modeling spatial correlation in quantized SAR imagery with applications to ATR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thelen, Brian T.; Xique, Ismael J.; Burns, Joseph W.; Goley, G. Steven; Nolan, Adam R.; Benson, Jonathan W.

2017-04-01

With all of the new remote sensing modalities available, and with ever increasing capabilities and frequency of collection, there is a desire to fundamentally understand/quantify the information content in the collected image data relative to various exploitation goals, such as detection/classification. A fundamental approach for this is the framework of Bayesian decision theory, but a daunting challenge is to have significantly flexible and accurate multivariate models for the features and/or pixels that capture a wide assortment of distributions and dependen- cies. In addition, data can come in the form of both continuous and discrete representations, where the latter is often generated based on considerations of robustness to imaging conditions and occlusions/degradations. In this paper we propose a novel suite of "latent" models fundamentally based on multivariate Gaussian copula models that can be used for quantized data from SAR imagery. For this Latent Gaussian Copula (LGC) model, we derive an approximate, maximum-likelihood estimation algorithm and demonstrate very reasonable estimation performance even for the larger images with many pixels. However applying these LGC models to large dimen- sions/images within a Bayesian decision/classification theory is infeasible due to the computational/numerical issues in evaluating the true full likelihood, and we propose an alternative class of novel pseudo-likelihoood detection statistics that are computationally feasible. We show in a few simple examples that these statistics have the potential to provide very good and robust detection/classification performance. All of this framework is demonstrated on a simulated SLICY data set, and the results show the importance of modeling the dependencies, and of utilizing the pseudo-likelihood methods.

Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.

2016-06-25

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the security and resilience of the electric power grid. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be difficult, as the statistical basis needed to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence does not exist. Because risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact, low-frequency events (HILFs) ismore » essential. Insights from such a model indicate where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. A risk-informed realization of designing and maintaining a grid resilient to HILFs will demand consideration of a spectrum of hazards/threats to infrastructure integrity, an understanding of their likelihoods of occurrence, treatment of the fragilities of critical assets to the stressors induced by such events, and through modeling grid network topology, the extent of damage associated with these scenarios. The model resulting from integration of these elements will allow sensitivity assessments based on optional risk management strategies, such as alternative pooling, staging and logistic strategies, and emergency contingency planning. This study is focused on the development of an end-to-end HILF risk-assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision-makers across numerous stakeholder groups in directing resources optimally towards the management of risks to operational continuity.« less

A review and comparison of Bayesian and likelihood-based inferences in beta regression and zero-or-one-inflated beta regression.

PubMed

Liu, Fang; Eugenio, Evercita C

2018-04-01

Beta regression is an increasingly popular statistical technique in medical research for modeling of outcomes that assume values in (0, 1), such as proportions and patient reported outcomes. When outcomes take values in the intervals [0,1), (0,1], or [0,1], zero-or-one-inflated beta (zoib) regression can be used. We provide a thorough review on beta regression and zoib regression in the modeling, inferential, and computational aspects via the likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches. We demonstrate the statistical and practical importance of correctly modeling the inflation at zero/one rather than ad hoc replacing them with values close to zero/one via simulation studies; the latter approach can lead to biased estimates and invalid inferences. We show via simulation studies that the likelihood-based approach is computationally faster in general than MCMC algorithms used in the Bayesian inferences, but runs the risk of non-convergence, large biases, and sensitivity to starting values in the optimization algorithm especially with clustered/correlated data, data with sparse inflation at zero and one, and data that warrant regularization of the likelihood. The disadvantages of the regular likelihood-based approach make the Bayesian approach an attractive alternative in these cases. Software packages and tools for fitting beta and zoib regressions in both the likelihood-based and Bayesian frameworks are also reviewed.

Effect of injection augmentation on need for framework surgery in unilateral vocal fold paralysis.

PubMed

Francis, David O; Williamson, Kelly; Hovis, Kristen; Gelbard, Alexander; Merati, Albert L; Penson, David F; Netterville, James L; Garrett, C Gaelyn

2016-01-01

To determine whether injection augmentation reduces the likelihood of ultimately needing definitive framework surgery in unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP) patients. Retrospective cohort study. All patients diagnosed with UVFP (2008-2012) at the academic center were identified. The time from symptom onset to presentation to either community otolaryngologist and/or academic center, as well as any directed treatment(s), were recorded. Stepwise, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether injection augmentation independently affected odds of needing definitive, framework surgery among patients who were seen within 9 months of symptom onset and had not undergone any prior rehabilitative procedures. Cohort consisted of 633 patients (55% female, 80% Caucasian, median age 60 years) with UVFP. The majority of etiologies were either surgery (48%) or idiopathic (37%). Duration to presentation at community otolaryngologist was shorter than to the academic center (median 2 vs. 6 months). Overall, less than half of UVFP patients had any operation (46%). Multivariate logistic regression found that earlier injection augmentation did not affect odds of ultimately undergoing framework surgery (odds ratio 1.13; confidence interval, 0.92-1.40; P = 0.23). Nearly half of UVFP patients do not require any rehabilitative procedure. When indicated, early injection augmentation is effective at temporarily alleviating associated symptoms but does not reduce likelihood of needing a definitive framework operation in patients with UVFP. Understanding practice patterns and fostering early detection and treatment may improve quality of life in this patient population. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Shallow microearthquakes near Chongqing, China triggered by the Rayleigh waves of the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Libo; Peng, Zhigang; Johnson, Christopher W.; Pollitz, Fred F.; Li, Lu; Wang, Baoshan; Wu, Jing; Li, Qiang; Wei, Hongmei

2017-12-01

We present a case of remotely triggered seismicity in Southwest China by the 2015/04/25 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. A local magnitude ML3.8 event occurred near the Qijiang district south of Chongqing city approximately 12 min after the Gorkha mainshock. Within 30 km of this ML3.8 event there are 62 earthquakes since 2009 and only 7 ML > 3 events, which corresponds to a likelihood of 0.3% for a ML > 3 on any given day by a random chance. This observation motivates us to investigate the relationship between the ML3.8 event and the Gorkha mainshock. The ML3.8 event was listed in the China Earthquake National Center (CENC) catalog and occurred at shallow depth (∼3 km). By examining high-frequency waveforms, we identify a smaller local event (∼ML 2.5) ∼ 15 s before the ML3.8 event. Both events occurred during the first two cycles of the Rayleigh waves from the Gorkha mainshock. We perform seismic event detection based on envelope function and waveform matching by using the two events as templates. Both analyses found a statistically significant rate change during the mainshock, suggesting that they were indeed dynamically triggered by the Rayleigh waves. Both events occurred during the peak normal and dilatational stress changes (∼10-30 kPa), consistent with observations of dynamic triggering in other geothermal/volcanic regions. Although other recent events (i.e., the 2011 M9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake) produced similar peak ground velocities, the 2015 Gorkha mainshock was the only event that produced clear dynamic triggering in this region. The triggering site is close to hydraulic fracturing wells that began production in 2013-2014. Hence we suspect that fluid injections may increase the region's susceptibility to remote dynamic triggering.

Shallow microearthquakes near Chongqing, China triggered by the Rayleigh waves of the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Han, Libo; Peng, Zhigang; Johnson, Christopher W.; Pollitz, Fred; Li, Lu; Wang, Baoshan; Wu, Jing; Li, Qiang; Wei, Hongmei

2017-01-01

We present a case of remotely triggered seismicity in Southwest China by the 2015/04/25 M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. A local magnitude ML3.8 event occurred near the Qijiang district south of Chongqing city approximately 12 min after the Gorkha mainshock. Within 30km of this ML3.8 event there are 62 earthquakes since 2009 and only 7 ML>3events, which corresponds to a likelihood of 0.3% for a ML>3on any given day by a random chance. This observation motivates us to investigate the relationship between the ML3.8 event and the Gorkha mainshock. The ML3.8 event is listed in the China Earthquake National Center (CENC) catalog and occurred at shallow depth (∼3km). By examining high-frequency waveforms, we identify a smaller local event (∼ML2.5) ∼15s before the ML3.8 event. Both events occurred during the first two cycles of the Rayleigh waves from the Gorkha mainshock. We perform seismic event detection based on envelope function and waveform matching by using the two events as templates. Both analyses found a statistically significant rate change during the mainshock, suggesting that they were indeed dynamically triggered by the Rayleigh waves. Both events occurred during the peak normal and dilatational stress changes (∼10–30 kPa), consistent with observations of dynamic triggering in other geothermal/volcanic regions. Although other recent events (i.e., the 2011 M9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake) produced similar peak ground velocities, the 2015 Gorkha mainshock was the only event that produced clear dynamic triggering in this region. The triggering site is close to hydraulic fracturing wells that began production in 2013–2014. Hence we suspect that fluid injections may increase the region’s susceptibility to remote dynamic triggering.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

A Statistical Test for Comparing Nonnested Covariance Structure Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy; Hancock, Gregory R.

While statistical procedures are well known for comparing hierarchically related (nested) covariance structure models, statistical tests for comparing nonhierarchically related (nonnested) models have proven more elusive. While isolated attempts have been made, none exists within the commonly used maximum likelihood estimation framework, thereby…

A computational framework to characterize and compare the geometry of coronary networks.

PubMed

Bulant, C A; Blanco, P J; Lima, T P; Assunção, A N; Liberato, G; Parga, J R; Ávila, L F R; Pereira, A C; Feijóo, R A; Lemos, P A

2017-03-01

This work presents a computational framework to perform a systematic and comprehensive assessment of the morphometry of coronary arteries from in vivo medical images. The methodology embraces image segmentation, arterial vessel representation, characterization and comparison, data storage, and finally analysis. Validation is performed using a sample of 48 patients. Data mining of morphometric information of several coronary arteries is presented. Results agree to medical reports in terms of basic geometric and anatomical variables. Concerning geometric descriptors, inter-artery and intra-artery correlations are studied. Data reported here can be useful for the construction and setup of blood flow models of the coronary circulation. Finally, as an application example, similarity criterion to assess vasculature likelihood based on geometric features is presented and used to test geometric similarity among sibling patients. Results indicate that likelihood, measured through geometric descriptors, is stronger between siblings compared with non-relative patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DarkBit: a GAMBIT module for computing dark matter observables and likelihoods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bringmann, Torsten; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Kahlhoefer, Felix; Kvellestad, Anders; Putze, Antje; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Wild, Sebastian

2017-12-01

We introduce DarkBit, an advanced software code for computing dark matter constraints on various extensions to the Standard Model of particle physics, comprising both new native code and interfaces to external packages. This release includes a dedicated signal yield calculator for gamma-ray observations, which significantly extends current tools by implementing a cascade-decay Monte Carlo, as well as a dedicated likelihood calculator for current and future experiments ( gamLike). This provides a general solution for studying complex particle physics models that predict dark matter annihilation to a multitude of final states. We also supply a direct detection package that models a large range of direct detection experiments ( DDCalc), and that provides the corresponding likelihoods for arbitrary combinations of spin-independent and spin-dependent scattering processes. Finally, we provide custom relic density routines along with interfaces to DarkSUSY, micrOMEGAs, and the neutrino telescope likelihood package nulike. DarkBit is written in the framework of the Global And Modular Beyond the Standard Model Inference Tool ( GAMBIT), providing seamless integration into a comprehensive statistical fitting framework that allows users to explore new models with both particle and astrophysics constraints, and a consistent treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this paper we describe its main functionality, provide a guide to getting started quickly, and show illustrative examples for results obtained with DarkBit (both as a stand-alone tool and as a GAMBIT module). This includes a quantitative comparison between two of the main dark matter codes ( DarkSUSY and micrOMEGAs), and application of DarkBit 's advanced direct and indirect detection routines to a simple effective dark matter model.

Molecular phylogeny of broken-back shrimps (genus Lysmata and allies): a test of the 'Tomlinson-Ghiselin' hypothesis explaining the evolution of hermaphroditism.

PubMed

Baeza, J Antonio

2013-10-01

The 'Tomlinson-Ghiselin' hypothesis (TGh) predicts that outcrossing simultaneous hermaphroditism (SH) is advantageous when population density is low because the probability of finding sexual partners is negligible. In shrimps from the family Lysmatidae, Bauer's historical contingency hypothesis (HCh) suggests that SH evolved in an ancestral tropical species that adopted a symbiotic lifestyle with, e.g., sea anemones and became a specialized fish-cleaner. Restricted mobility of shrimps due to their association with a host, and hence, reduced probability of encountering mating partners, would have favored SH. The HCh is a special case of the TGh. Herein, I examined within a phylogenetic framework whether the TGh/HCh explains the origin of SH in shrimps. A phylogeny of caridean broken-back shrimps in the families Lysmatidae, Barbouriidae, Merguiidae was first developed using nuclear and mitochondrial makers. Complete evidence phylogenetic analyses using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) demonstrated that Lysmatidae+Barbouriidae are monophyletic. In turn, Merguiidae is sister to the Lysmatidae+Barbouriidae. ML and BI ancestral character-state reconstruction in the resulting phylogenetic trees indicated that the ancestral Lysmatidae was either gregarious or lived in small groups and was not symbiotic. Four different evolutionary transitions from a free-living to a symbiotic lifestyle occurred in shrimps. Therefore, the evolution of SH in shrimps cannot be explained by the TGh/HCh; reduced probability of encountering mating partners in an ancestral species due to its association with a sessile host did not favor SH in the Lysmatidae. It is proposed that two conditions acting together in the past; low male mating opportunities and brooding constraints, might have favored SH in the ancestral Lysmatidae+Barbouridae. Additional studies on the life history and phylogenetics of broken-back shrimps are needed to understand the evolution of SH in the ecologically diverse Caridea. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic value of survivin for malignant pleural effusion: a clinical study and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tian, Panwen; Shen, Yongchun; Wan, Chun; Yang, Ting; An, Jing; Yi, Qun; Chen, Lei; Wang, Tao; Wang, Ye; Wen, Fuqiang

2014-01-01

To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of survivin for malignant pleural effusion (MPE). Pleural effusion samples were collected from 40 MPE patients and 45 non-MPE patients. Pleural levels of survivin were measured by ELISA. Literature search was performed in Pubmed and Embase to identify studies regarding the usefulness of survivin to diagnose MPE. Data were retrieved and the pooled sensitivity, specificity and other diagnostic indexes were calculated. The summary receiver operating characteristics (SROC) curve was used to determine the overall diagnostic accuracy. The pleural levels of survivin were higher in MPE patients than non-MPE patients (844.17 ± 358.30 vs. 508.08 ± 169.58 pg/ml, P < 0.05), at a cut-off value of 683.2 pg/ml, the sensitivity and specificity were 57.50% and 88.89%, respectively. A total of six studies were included in present meta-analysis, the overall diagnostic estimates were: sensitivity 0.74 (95% CI: 0.59-0.85); specificity, 0.85 (95% CI: 0.79-0.89); positive likelihood ratio, 4.79 (95% CI: 3.48-6.61); negative likelihood ratio, 0.31 (95% CI: 0.19-0.50), and diagnostic odds ratio, 15.59 (95% CI: 7.69-31.61). The area under SROC curve was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.82-0.89). Our study confirms that the pleural survivin plays a role in the diagnosis of MPE. More studies at a large scale should be performed to validate our findings.

A Likelihood-Based Framework for Association Analysis of Allele-Specific Copy Numbers.

PubMed

Hu, Y J; Lin, D Y; Sun, W; Zeng, D

2014-10-01

Copy number variants (CNVs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) co-exist throughout the human genome and jointly contribute to phenotypic variations. Thus, it is desirable to consider both types of variants, as characterized by allele-specific copy numbers (ASCNs), in association studies of complex human diseases. Current SNP genotyping technologies capture the CNV and SNP information simultaneously via fluorescent intensity measurements. The common practice of calling ASCNs from the intensity measurements and then using the ASCN calls in downstream association analysis has important limitations. First, the association tests are prone to false-positive findings when differential measurement errors between cases and controls arise from differences in DNA quality or handling. Second, the uncertainties in the ASCN calls are ignored. We present a general framework for the integrated analysis of CNVs and SNPs, including the analysis of total copy numbers as a special case. Our approach combines the ASCN calling and the association analysis into a single step while allowing for differential measurement errors. We construct likelihood functions that properly account for case-control sampling and measurement errors. We establish the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and develop EM algorithms to implement the corresponding inference procedures. The advantages of the proposed methods over the existing ones are demonstrated through realistic simulation studies and an application to a genome-wide association study of schizophrenia. Extensions to next-generation sequencing data are discussed.

Financial Advice: Who Pays

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finke, Michael S.; Huston, Sandra J.; Winchester, Danielle D.

2011-01-01

Using a cost-benefit framework for financial planning services and proprietary data collected in the summer of 2008, the client characteristics that are associated with the likelihood of paying for professional financial advice, as well as the type of financial services purchased, are identified. Results indicate that respondents who pay for…

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Experimental investigation of extended Kalman Filter combined with carrier phase recovery for 16-QAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Tong; Li, Yan; Yu, Miao; Zhang, Yifan; Zhou, Honghang; Qiu, Jifang; Guo, Hongxiang; Hong, Xiaobin; Wu, Jian

2018-02-01

Performance of Extended Kalman Filter combined with the Viterbi-Viterbi phase estimation (VVPE-EKF) for joint phase noise mitigation and amplitude noise equalization is experimental demonstrated. Experimental results show that, for 11.2 Gbaud SP-16-QAM, the proposed VVPE-EKF achieves 0.9 dB required OSNR reduction at bit error ratio (BER) of 3.8e-3 compared to the VVPE. The result of maximum likelihood combined with VVPE (VVPE-ML) is only 0.3 dB. For 28 GBaud SP-16-QAM signal, VVPE-EKF achieves 3 dB required OSNR reduction at BER=3.8e-3 (7% HD-FEC threshold) compared to VVPE. And VVPE-ML can reduce the required OSNR for 1.7 dB compared to the VVPE. VVPE-EKF outperforms DD-EKF 3.7 dB and 0.7 dB for 11.2 GBaud and 28 GBaud system, respectively.

Five-year lung function observations and associations with a smoking ban among healthy miners at high altitude (4000 m).

PubMed

Vinnikov, Denis; Blanc, Paul D; Brimkulov, Nurlan; Redding-Jones, Rupert

2013-12-01

To assess the annual lung function decline associated with the reduction of secondhand smoke exposure in a high-altitude industrial workforce. We performed pulmonary function tests annually among 109 high-altitude gold-mine workers over 5 years of follow-up. The first 3 years included greater likelihood of exposure to secondhand smoke exposure before the initiation of extensive smoking restrictions that came into force in the last 2 years of observation. In repeated measures modeling, taking into account the time elapsed in relation to the smoking ban, there was a 115 ± 9 (standard error) mL per annum decline in lung function before the ban, but a 178 ± 20 (standard error) mL per annum increase afterward (P < 0.001, both slopes). Institution of a workplace smoking ban at high altitude may be beneficial in terms of lung function decline.

Iterative Code-Aided ML Phase Estimation and Phase Ambiguity Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wymeersch, Henk; Moeneclaey, Marc

2005-12-01

As many coded systems operate at very low signal-to-noise ratios, synchronization becomes a very difficult task. In many cases, conventional algorithms will either require long training sequences or result in large BER degradations. By exploiting code properties, these problems can be avoided. In this contribution, we present several iterative maximum-likelihood (ML) algorithms for joint carrier phase estimation and ambiguity resolution. These algorithms operate on coded signals by accepting soft information from the MAP decoder. Issues of convergence and initialization are addressed in detail. Simulation results are presented for turbo codes, and are compared to performance results of conventional algorithms. Performance comparisons are carried out in terms of BER performance and mean square estimation error (MSEE). We show that the proposed algorithm reduces the MSEE and, more importantly, the BER degradation. Additionally, phase ambiguity resolution can be performed without resorting to a pilot sequence, thus improving the spectral efficiency.

Channel Training for Analog FDD Repeaters: Optimal Estimators and Cramér-Rao Bounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesemann, Stefan; Marzetta, Thomas L.

2017-12-01

For frequency division duplex channels, a simple pilot loop-back procedure has been proposed that allows the estimation of the UL & DL channels at an antenna array without relying on any digital signal processing at the terminal side. For this scheme, we derive the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for the UL & DL channel subspaces, formulate the corresponding Cram\\'er-Rao bounds and show the asymptotic efficiency of both (SVD-based) estimators by means of Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, we illustrate how to compute the underlying (rank-1) SVD with quadratic time complexity by employing the power iteration method. To enable power control for the data transmission, knowledge of the channel gains is needed. Assuming that the UL & DL channels have on average the same gain, we formulate the ML estimator for the channel norm, and illustrate its robustness against strong noise by means of simulations.

A family of chaotic pure analog coding schemes based on baker's map function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang; Li, Jing; Lu, Xuanxuan; Yuen, Chau; Wu, Jun

2015-12-01

This paper considers a family of pure analog coding schemes constructed from dynamic systems which are governed by chaotic functions—baker's map function and its variants. Various decoding methods, including maximum likelihood (ML), minimum mean square error (MMSE), and mixed ML-MMSE decoding algorithms, have been developed for these novel encoding schemes. The proposed mirrored baker's and single-input baker's analog codes perform a balanced protection against the fold error (large distortion) and weak distortion and outperform the classical chaotic analog coding and analog joint source-channel coding schemes in literature. Compared to the conventional digital communication system, where quantization and digital error correction codes are used, the proposed analog coding system has graceful performance evolution, low decoding latency, and no quantization noise. Numerical results show that under the same bandwidth expansion, the proposed analog system outperforms the digital ones over a wide signal-to-noise (SNR) range.

An evaluation of portion size estimation aids: precision, ease of use and likelihood of future use.

PubMed

Faulkner, Gemma P; Livingstone, M Barbara E; Pourshahidi, L Kirsty; Spence, Michelle; Dean, Moira; O'Brien, Sinead; Gibney, Eileen R; Wallace, Julie Mw; McCaffrey, Tracy A; Kerr, Maeve A

2016-09-01

The present study aimed to evaluate the precision, ease of use and likelihood of future use of portion size estimation aids (PSEA). A range of PSEA were used to estimate the serving sizes of a range of commonly eaten foods and rated for ease of use and likelihood of future usage. For each food, participants selected their preferred PSEA from a range of options including: quantities and measures; reference objects; measuring; and indicators on food packets. These PSEA were used to serve out various foods (e.g. liquid, amorphous, and composite dishes). Ease of use and likelihood of future use were noted. The foods were weighed to determine the precision of each PSEA. Males and females aged 18-64 years (n 120). The quantities and measures were the most precise PSEA (lowest range of weights for estimated portion sizes). However, participants preferred household measures (e.g. 200 ml disposable cup) - deemed easy to use (median rating of 5), likely to use again in future (all scored either 4 or 5 on a scale from 1='not very likely' to 5='very likely to use again') and precise (narrow range of weights for estimated portion sizes). The majority indicated they would most likely use the PSEA preparing a meal (94 %), particularly dinner (86 %) in the home (89 %; all P<0·001) for amorphous grain foods. Household measures may be precise, easy to use and acceptable aids for estimating the appropriate portion size of amorphous grain foods.

A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data

PubMed Central

Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory. PMID:24223450

A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Functional Mapping of Longitudinal Binary Traits

PubMed Central

Wang, Chenguang; Li, Hongying; Wang, Zhong; Wang, Yaqun; Wang, Ningtao; Wang, Zuoheng; Wu, Rongling

2013-01-01

Despite their importance in biology and biomedicine, genetic mapping of binary traits that change over time has not been well explored. In this article, we develop a statistical model for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) that govern longitudinal responses of binary traits. The model is constructed within the maximum likelihood framework by which the association between binary responses is modeled in terms of conditional log odds-ratios. With this parameterization, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of marginal mean parameters are robust to the misspecification of time dependence. We implement an iterative procedures to obtain the MLEs of QTL genotype-specific parameters that define longitudinal binary responses. The usefulness of the model was validated by analyzing a real example in rice. Simulation studies were performed to investigate the statistical properties of the model, showing that the model has power to identify and map specific QTLs responsible for the temporal pattern of binary traits. PMID:23183762

Ego involvement increases doping likelihood.

PubMed

Ring, Christopher; Kavussanu, Maria

2018-08-01

Achievement goal theory provides a framework to help understand how individuals behave in achievement contexts, such as sport. Evidence concerning the role of motivation in the decision to use banned performance enhancing substances (i.e., doping) is equivocal on this issue. The extant literature shows that dispositional goal orientation has been weakly and inconsistently associated with doping intention and use. It is possible that goal involvement, which describes the situational motivational state, is a stronger determinant of doping intention. Accordingly, the current study used an experimental design to examine the effects of goal involvement, manipulated using direct instructions and reflective writing, on doping likelihood in hypothetical situations in college athletes. The ego-involving goal increased doping likelihood compared to no goal and a task-involving goal. The present findings provide the first evidence that ego involvement can sway the decision to use doping to improve athletic performance.

A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data.

PubMed

Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory.

Regularization of nonlinear decomposition of spectral x-ray projection images.

PubMed

Ducros, Nicolas; Abascal, Juan Felipe Perez-Juste; Sixou, Bruno; Rit, Simon; Peyrin, Françoise

2017-09-01

Exploiting the x-ray measurements obtained in different energy bins, spectral computed tomography (CT) has the ability to recover the 3-D description of a patient in a material basis. This may be achieved solving two subproblems, namely the material decomposition and the tomographic reconstruction problems. In this work, we address the material decomposition of spectral x-ray projection images, which is a nonlinear ill-posed problem. Our main contribution is to introduce a material-dependent spatial regularization in the projection domain. The decomposition problem is solved iteratively using a Gauss-Newton algorithm that can benefit from fast linear solvers. A Matlab implementation is available online. The proposed regularized weighted least squares Gauss-Newton algorithm (RWLS-GN) is validated on numerical simulations of a thorax phantom made of up to five materials (soft tissue, bone, lung, adipose tissue, and gadolinium), which is scanned with a 120 kV source and imaged by a 4-bin photon counting detector. To evaluate the method performance of our algorithm, different scenarios are created by varying the number of incident photons, the concentration of the marker and the configuration of the phantom. The RWLS-GN method is compared to the reference maximum likelihood Nelder-Mead algorithm (ML-NM). The convergence of the proposed method and its dependence on the regularization parameter are also studied. We show that material decomposition is feasible with the proposed method and that it converges in few iterations. Material decomposition with ML-NM was very sensitive to noise, leading to decomposed images highly affected by noise, and artifacts even for the best case scenario. The proposed method was less sensitive to noise and improved contrast-to-noise ratio of the gadolinium image. Results were superior to those provided by ML-NM in terms of image quality and decomposition was 70 times faster. For the assessed experiments, material decomposition was possible with the proposed method when the number of incident photons was equal or larger than 10 5 and when the marker concentration was equal or larger than 0.03 g·cm -3 . The proposed method efficiently solves the nonlinear decomposition problem for spectral CT, which opens up new possibilities such as material-specific regularization in the projection domain and a parallelization framework, in which projections are solved in parallel. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Statistical analysis of fNIRS data: a comprehensive review.

PubMed

Tak, Sungho; Ye, Jong Chul

2014-01-15

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a non-invasive method to measure brain activities using the changes of optical absorption in the brain through the intact skull. fNIRS has many advantages over other neuroimaging modalities such as positron emission tomography (PET), functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), or magnetoencephalography (MEG), since it can directly measure blood oxygenation level changes related to neural activation with high temporal resolution. However, fNIRS signals are highly corrupted by measurement noises and physiology-based systemic interference. Careful statistical analyses are therefore required to extract neuronal activity-related signals from fNIRS data. In this paper, we provide an extensive review of historical developments of statistical analyses of fNIRS signal, which include motion artifact correction, short source-detector separation correction, principal component analysis (PCA)/independent component analysis (ICA), false discovery rate (FDR), serially-correlated errors, as well as inference techniques such as the standard t-test, F-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and statistical parameter mapping (SPM) framework. In addition, to provide a unified view of various existing inference techniques, we explain a linear mixed effect model with restricted maximum likelihood (ReML) variance estimation, and show that most of the existing inference methods for fNIRS analysis can be derived as special cases. Some of the open issues in statistical analysis are also described. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distributive Justice in Higher Education: Perceptions of Administrators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzgerald, Shawn M.; Mahony, Daniel; Crawford, Fashaad; Hnat, Hope Bradley

2014-01-01

For the study we report here we used the theoretical framework of organizational justice to examine academic administrator's perceptions of resource distribution decisions. We asked deans, school directors, and department chairs in one midwestern state about their perceptions of the fairness and likelihood of use of various distribution principles…

The Rocky Road to Change: Implications for Substance Abuse Programs on College Campuses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Cynthia G.; Ambroson, DeAnn L.

1994-01-01

Examines college substance abuse prevention and intervention programs in the framework of the elaboration likelihood model. Discusses the role of persuasion and recommends careful analysis of the relevance, construction, and delivery of messages about substance use and subsequent program evaluation. Recommendations for increasing program…

Source, Message, and Recipient Factors in Counseling and Psychotherapy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoltenberg, Cal D.; McNeill, Brian W.

This paper reviews recent social psychology studies on the influence of message characteristics, issue involvement, and the subject's cognitive response on perceptions of the communicator. The Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) is used as a framework to discuss various approaches to persuasion, particularly central and peripheral routes to…

Risk evaluation framework and selected metrics for tank cars carrying hazardous materials.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

This report presents an analysis of train accident and hazmat release data to quantify the likelihood of a hazmat release. The harm caused : by a hazmat release is characterized as the end result of a chain of events, with each link in the chain bein...

Nonmedical Prescription Drug Use among Midwestern Rural Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Nicholas K.; Melander, Lisa; Sanchez, Shanell

2016-01-01

Prescription drug misuse has been an increasing problem in the United States, yet few studies have examined the protective factors that reduce risk of prescription drug abuse among rural adolescents. Using social control theory as a theoretical framework, we test whether parent, school, and community attachment reduce the likelihood of lifetime…

Fluorescein angiography versus optical coherence tomography for diagnosis of uveitic macular edema.

PubMed

Kempen, John H; Sugar, Elizabeth A; Jaffe, Glenn J; Acharya, Nisha R; Dunn, James P; Elner, Susan G; Lightman, Susan L; Thorne, Jennifer E; Vitale, Albert T; Altaweel, Michael M

2013-09-01

To evaluate agreement between fluorescein angiography (FA) and optical coherence tomography (OCT) results for diagnosis of macular edema in patients with uveitis. Multicenter cross-sectional study. Four hundred seventy-nine eyes with uveitis from 255 patients. The macular status of dilated eyes with intermediate uveitis, posterior uveitis, or panuveitis was assessed via Stratus-3 OCT and FA. To evaluate agreement between the diagnostic approaches, κ statistics were used. Macular thickening (MT; center point thickness, ≥ 240 μm per reading center grading of OCT images) and macular leakage (ML; central subfield fluorescein leakage, ≥ 0.44 disc areas per reading center grading of FA images), and agreement between these outcomes in diagnosing macular edema. Optical coherence tomography (90.4%) more frequently returned usable information regarding macular edema than FA (77%) or biomicroscopy (76%). Agreement in diagnosis of MT and ML (κ = 0.44) was moderate. Macular leakage was present in 40% of cases free of MT, whereas MT was present in 34% of cases without ML. Biomicroscopic evaluation for macular edema failed to detect 40% and 45% of cases of MT and ML, respectively, and diagnosed 17% and 17% of cases with macular edema that did not have MT or ML, respectively; these results may underestimate biomicroscopic errors (ophthalmologists were not explicitly masked to OCT and FA results). Among eyes free of ML, phakic eyes without cataract rarely (4%) had MT. No factors were found that effectively ruled out ML when MT was absent. Optical coherence tomography and FA offered only moderate agreement regarding macular edema status in uveitis cases, probably because what they measure (MT and ML) are related but nonidentical macular pathologic characteristics. Given its lower cost, greater safety, and greater likelihood of obtaining usable information, OCT may be the best initial test for evaluation of suspected macular edema. However, given that ML cannot be ruled out if MT is absent and vice versa, obtaining the second test after negative results on the first seems justified when detection of ML or MT would alter management. Given that biomicroscopic evaluation for macular edema erred frequently, ancillary testing for macular edema seems indicated when knowledge of ML or MT status would affect management. Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fluorescein angiography vs. optical coherence tomography for diagnosis of uveitic macular edema

PubMed Central

Kempen, John H.; Sugar, Elizabeth A.; Jaffe, Glenn J.; Acharya, Nisha R.; Dunn, James P.; Elner, Susan G.; Lightman, Susan L.; Thorne, Jennifer E.; Vitale, Albert T.; Altaweel, Michael M.

2013-01-01

Objective To evaluate agreement between fluorescein angiography (FA) and optical coherence tomography (OCT) for diagnosis of macular edema in patients with uveitis. Design Multicenter cross-sectional study Participants Four hundred seventy-nine eyes with uveitis of 255 patients Methods The macular status of dilated eyes with intermediate, posterior or panuveitis was assessed via Stratus-3 OCT and FA. Kappa statistics evaluated agreement between the diagnostic approaches. Main Outcome Measures Macular thickening (center point thickness ≥240 μm per reading center grading of OCT images-“MT”) and macular leakage (central subfield fluorescein leakage ≥0.44 disk areas per reading center grading of FA images-“ML”); agreement amongst these outcomes in diagnosing “macular edema.” Results OCT (90.4%) more frequently returned usable information regarding macular edema than FA (77%) and biomicroscopy (76%). Agreement in diagnosis of MT and ML (κ=0.44) was moderate. ML was present in 40% of cases free of MT, whereas MT was present in 34% of cases without ML. Biomicroscopic evaluation for macular edema failed to detect 40% and 45% of cases of MT and ML respectively and diagnosed 17% and 17% of cases with macular edema which did not have MT or ML respectively; these results may underestimate biomicroscopic errors (ophthalmologists were not explicitly masked to OCT and FA results). Among eyes free of ML, phakic eyes without cataract rarely (4%) had MT. No factors were found that effectively ruled out ML when MT was absent. Conclusion OCT and FA offered only moderate agreement regarding macular edema status in uveitis cases, probably because what they measure (MT and ML) are related but non-identical macular pathologies. Given its lower cost, greater safety, and greater likelihood of obtaining usable information, OCT may be the best initial test for evaluation of suspected macular edema. However, given that ML cannot be ruled out if MT is absent and vice versa, obtaining the second test after a negative result on the first seems justified when detection of ML or MT would alter management. Given that biomicroscopic evaluation for macular edema frequently erred, ancillary testing for macular edema seems indicated when knowledge of ML or MT status would affect management. PMID:23706700

Model criticism based on likelihood-free inference, with an application to protein network evolution.

PubMed

Ratmann, Oliver; Andrieu, Christophe; Wiuf, Carsten; Richardson, Sylvia

2009-06-30

Mathematical models are an important tool to explain and comprehend complex phenomena, and unparalleled computational advances enable us to easily explore them without any or little understanding of their global properties. In fact, the likelihood of the data under complex stochastic models is often analytically or numerically intractable in many areas of sciences. This makes it even more important to simultaneously investigate the adequacy of these models-in absolute terms, against the data, rather than relative to the performance of other models-but no such procedure has been formally discussed when the likelihood is intractable. We provide a statistical interpretation to current developments in likelihood-free Bayesian inference that explicitly accounts for discrepancies between the model and the data, termed Approximate Bayesian Computation under model uncertainty (ABCmicro). We augment the likelihood of the data with unknown error terms that correspond to freely chosen checking functions, and provide Monte Carlo strategies for sampling from the associated joint posterior distribution without the need of evaluating the likelihood. We discuss the benefit of incorporating model diagnostics within an ABC framework, and demonstrate how this method diagnoses model mismatch and guides model refinement by contrasting three qualitative models of protein network evolution to the protein interaction datasets of Helicobacter pylori and Treponema pallidum. Our results make a number of model deficiencies explicit, and suggest that the T. pallidum network topology is inconsistent with evolution dominated by link turnover or lateral gene transfer alone.

Analyzing Planck and low redshift data sets with advanced statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eifler, Tim

The recent ESA/NASA Planck mission has provided a key data set to constrain cosmology that is most sensitive to physics of the early Universe, such as inflation and primordial NonGaussianity (Planck 2015 results XIII). In combination with cosmological probes of the LargeScale Structure (LSS), the Planck data set is a powerful source of information to investigate late time phenomena (Planck 2015 results XIV), e.g. the accelerated expansion of the Universe, the impact of baryonic physics on the growth of structure, and the alignment of galaxies in their dark matter halos. It is the main objective of this proposal to re-analyze the archival Planck data, 1) with different, more recently developed statistical methods for cosmological parameter inference, and 2) to combine Planck and ground-based observations in an innovative way. We will make the corresponding analysis framework publicly available and believe that it will set a new standard for future CMB-LSS analyses. Advanced statistical methods, such as the Gibbs sampler (Jewell et al 2004, Wandelt et al 2004) have been critical in the analysis of Planck data. More recently, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC, see Weyant et al 2012, Akeret et al 2015, Ishida et al 2015, for cosmological applications) has matured to an interesting tool in cosmological likelihood analyses. It circumvents several assumptions that enter the standard Planck (and most LSS) likelihood analyses, most importantly, the assumption that the functional form of the likelihood of the CMB observables is a multivariate Gaussian. Beyond applying new statistical methods to Planck data in order to cross-check and validate existing constraints, we plan to combine Planck and DES data in a new and innovative way and run multi-probe likelihood analyses of CMB and LSS observables. The complexity of multiprobe likelihood analyses scale (non-linearly) with the level of correlations amongst the individual probes that are included. For the multi-probe analysis proposed here we will use the existing CosmoLike software, a computationally efficient analysis framework that is unique in its integrated ansatz of jointly analyzing probes of large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe. We plan to combine CosmoLike with publicly available CMB analysis software (Camb, CLASS) to include modeling capabilities of CMB temperature, polarization, and lensing measurements. The resulting analysis framework will be capable to independently and jointly analyze data from the CMB and from various probes of the LSS of the Universe. After completion we will utilize this framework to check for consistency amongst the individual probes and subsequently run a joint likelihood analysis of probes that are not in tension. The inclusion of Planck information in a joint likelihood analysis substantially reduces DES uncertainties in cosmological parameters, and allows for unprecedented constraints on parameters that describe astrophysics. In their recent review Observational Probes of Cosmic Acceleration (Weinberg et al 2013) the authors emphasize the value of a balanced program that employs several of the most powerful methods in combination, both to cross-check systematic uncertainties and to take advantage of complementary information. The work we propose follows exactly this idea: 1) cross-checking existing Planck results with alternative methods in the data analysis, 2) checking for consistency of Planck and DES data, and 3) running a joint analysis to constrain cosmology and astrophysics. It is now expedient to develop and refine multi-probe analysis strategies that allow the comparison and inclusion of information from disparate probes to optimally obtain cosmology and astrophysics. Analyzing Planck and DES data poses an ideal opportunity for this purpose and corresponding lessons will be of great value for the science preparation of Euclid and WFIRST.

Assessment of phylogenetic sensitivity for reconstructing HIV-1 epidemiological relationships.

PubMed

Beloukas, Apostolos; Magiorkinis, Emmanouil; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Zavitsanou, Asimina; Karamitros, Timokratis; Hatzakis, Angelos; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2012-06-01

Phylogenetic analysis has been extensively used as a tool for the reconstruction of epidemiological relations for research or for forensic purposes. It was our objective to assess the sensitivity of different phylogenetic methods and various phylogenetic programs to reconstruct epidemiological links among HIV-1 infected patients that is the probability to reveal a true transmission relationship. Multiple datasets (90) were prepared consisting of HIV-1 sequences in protease (PR) and partial reverse transcriptase (RT) sampled from patients with documented epidemiological relationship (target population), and from unrelated individuals (control population) belonging to the same HIV-1 subtype as the target population. Each dataset varied regarding the number, the geographic origin and the transmission risk groups of the sequences among the control population. Phylogenetic trees were inferred by neighbor-joining (NJ), maximum likelihood heuristics (hML) and Bayesian methods. All clusters of sequences belonging to the target population were correctly reconstructed by NJ and Bayesian methods receiving high bootstrap and posterior probability (PP) support, respectively. On the other hand, TreePuzzle failed to reconstruct or provide significant support for several clusters; high puzzling step support was associated with the inclusion of control sequences from the same geographic area as the target population. In contrary, all clusters were correctly reconstructed by hML as implemented in PhyML 3.0 receiving high bootstrap support. We report that under the conditions of our study, hML using PhyML, NJ and Bayesian methods were the most sensitive for the reconstruction of epidemiological links mostly from sexually infected individuals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementation of a Goal-Based Systems Engineering Process Using the Systems Modeling Language (SysML)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breckenridge, Jonathan T.; Johnson, Stephen B.

2013-01-01

This paper describes the core framework used to implement a Goal-Function Tree (GFT) based systems engineering process using the Systems Modeling Language. It defines a set of principles built upon by the theoretical approach described in the InfoTech 2013 ISHM paper titled "Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management" presented by Dr. Stephen B. Johnson. Using the SysML language, the principles in this paper describe the expansion of the SysML language as a baseline in order to: hierarchically describe a system, describe that system functionally within success space, and allocate detection mechanisms to success functions for system protection.

14-3-3η Autoantibodies: Diagnostic Use in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis.

PubMed

Maksymowych, Walter P; Boire, Gilles; van Schaardenburg, Dirkjan; Wichuk, Stephanie; Turk, Samina; Boers, Maarten; Siminovitch, Katherine A; Bykerk, Vivian; Keystone, Ed; Tak, Paul Peter; van Kuijk, Arno W; Landewé, Robert; van der Heijde, Desiree; Murphy, Mairead; Marotta, Anthony

2015-09-01

To describe the expression and diagnostic use of 14-3-3η autoantibodies in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). 14-3-3η autoantibody levels were measured using an electrochemiluminescent multiplexed assay in 500 subjects (114 disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naive patients with early RA, 135 with established RA, 55 healthy, 70 autoimmune, and 126 other non-RA arthropathy controls). 14-3-3η protein levels were determined in an earlier analysis. Two-tailed Student t tests and Mann-Whitney U tests compared differences among groups. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves were generated and diagnostic performance was estimated by area under the curve (AUC), as well as specificity, sensitivity, and likelihood ratios (LR) for optimal cutoffs. Median serum 14-3-3η autoantibody concentrations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001) in patients with early RA (525 U/ml) when compared with healthy controls (235 U/ml), disease controls (274 U/ml), autoimmune disease controls (274 U/ml), patients with osteoarthritis (259 U/ml), and all controls (265 U/ml). ROC curve analysis comparing early RA with healthy controls demonstrated a significant (p < 0.0001) AUC of 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.95). At an optimal cutoff of ≥ 380 U/ml, the ROC curve yielded a sensitivity of 73%, a specificity of 91%, and a positive LR of 8.0. Adding 14-3-3η autoantibodies to 14-3-3η protein positivity enhanced the identification of patients with early RA from 59% to 90%; addition of 14-3-3η autoantibodies to anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) and/or rheumatoid factor (RF) increased identification from 72% to 92%. Seventy-two percent of RF- and ACPA-seronegative patients were positive for 14-3-3η autoantibodies. 14-3-3η autoantibodies, alone and in combination with the 14-3-3η protein, RF, and/or ACPA identified most patients with early RA.

Empirical best linear unbiased prediction method for small areas with restricted maximum likelihood and bootstrap procedure to estimate the average of household expenditure per capita in Banjar Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminah, Agustin Siti; Pawitan, Gandhi; Tantular, Bertho

2017-03-01

So far, most of the data published by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) as data providers for national statistics are still limited to the district level. Less sufficient sample size for smaller area levels to make the measurement of poverty indicators with direct estimation produced high standard error. Therefore, the analysis based on it is unreliable. To solve this problem, the estimation method which can provide a better accuracy by combining survey data and other auxiliary data is required. One method often used for the estimation is the Small Area Estimation (SAE). There are many methods used in SAE, one of them is Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP). EBLUP method of maximum likelihood (ML) procedures does not consider the loss of degrees of freedom due to estimating β with β ^. This drawback motivates the use of the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) procedure. This paper proposed EBLUP with REML procedure for estimating poverty indicators by modeling the average of household expenditures per capita and implemented bootstrap procedure to calculate MSE (Mean Square Error) to compare the accuracy EBLUP method with the direct estimation method. Results show that EBLUP method reduced MSE in small area estimation.

PharmML in Action: an Interoperable Language for Modeling and Simulation

PubMed Central

Bizzotto, R; Smith, G; Yvon, F; Kristensen, NR; Swat, MJ

2017-01-01

PharmML1 is an XML‐based exchange format2, 3, 4 created with a focus on nonlinear mixed‐effect (NLME) models used in pharmacometrics,5, 6 but providing a very general framework that also allows describing mathematical and statistical models such as single‐subject or nonlinear and multivariate regression models. This tutorial provides an overview of the structure of this language, brief suggestions on how to work with it, and use cases demonstrating its power and flexibility. PMID:28575551

A Novel Mittag-Leffler Kernel Based Hybrid Fault Diagnosis Method for Wheeled Robot Driving System.

PubMed

Yuan, Xianfeng; Song, Mumin; Zhou, Fengyu; Chen, Zhumin; Li, Yan

2015-01-01

The wheeled robots have been successfully applied in many aspects, such as industrial handling vehicles, and wheeled service robots. To improve the safety and reliability of wheeled robots, this paper presents a novel hybrid fault diagnosis framework based on Mittag-Leffler kernel (ML-kernel) support vector machine (SVM) and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) fusion. Using sensor data sampled under different running conditions, the proposed approach initially establishes multiple principal component analysis (PCA) models for fault feature extraction. The fault feature vectors are then applied to train the probabilistic SVM (PSVM) classifiers that arrive at a preliminary fault diagnosis. To improve the accuracy of preliminary results, a novel ML-kernel based PSVM classifier is proposed in this paper, and the positive definiteness of the ML-kernel is proved as well. The basic probability assignments (BPAs) are defined based on the preliminary fault diagnosis results and their confidence values. Eventually, the final fault diagnosis result is archived by the fusion of the BPAs. Experimental results show that the proposed framework not only is capable of detecting and identifying the faults in the robot driving system, but also has better performance in stability and diagnosis accuracy compared with the traditional methods.

A Novel Mittag-Leffler Kernel Based Hybrid Fault Diagnosis Method for Wheeled Robot Driving System

PubMed Central

Yuan, Xianfeng; Song, Mumin; Chen, Zhumin; Li, Yan

2015-01-01

The wheeled robots have been successfully applied in many aspects, such as industrial handling vehicles, and wheeled service robots. To improve the safety and reliability of wheeled robots, this paper presents a novel hybrid fault diagnosis framework based on Mittag-Leffler kernel (ML-kernel) support vector machine (SVM) and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) fusion. Using sensor data sampled under different running conditions, the proposed approach initially establishes multiple principal component analysis (PCA) models for fault feature extraction. The fault feature vectors are then applied to train the probabilistic SVM (PSVM) classifiers that arrive at a preliminary fault diagnosis. To improve the accuracy of preliminary results, a novel ML-kernel based PSVM classifier is proposed in this paper, and the positive definiteness of the ML-kernel is proved as well. The basic probability assignments (BPAs) are defined based on the preliminary fault diagnosis results and their confidence values. Eventually, the final fault diagnosis result is archived by the fusion of the BPAs. Experimental results show that the proposed framework not only is capable of detecting and identifying the faults in the robot driving system, but also has better performance in stability and diagnosis accuracy compared with the traditional methods. PMID:26229526

Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of “working distributions” to facilitate—or shorten—the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a “working” distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different “working” distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

Testing Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) as a Method of Land Cover Classification of TERRA-ASTER Satellite Images.

PubMed

Quirós, Elia; Felicísimo, Angel M; Cuartero, Aurora

2009-01-01

This work proposes a new method to classify multi-spectral satellite images based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and compares this classification system with the more common parallelepiped and maximum likelihood (ML) methods. We apply the classification methods to the land cover classification of a test zone located in southwestern Spain. The basis of the MARS method and its associated procedures are explained in detail, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is compared for the three methods. The results show that the MARS method provides better results than the parallelepiped method in all cases, and it provides better results than the maximum likelihood method in 13 cases out of 17. These results demonstrate that the MARS method can be used in isolation or in combination with other methods to improve the accuracy of soil cover classification. The improvement is statistically significant according to the Wilcoxon signed rank test.

The Context of Creating Space: Assessing the Likelihood of College LGBT Center Presence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fine, Leigh E.

2012-01-01

LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender) resource centers are campus spaces dedicated to the success of sexual minority students. However, only a small handful of American colleges and universities have such spaces. Political opportunity and resource mobilization theory can provide a useful framework for understanding what contextual factors…

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Further Iterations on Using the Problem-Analysis Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Annan, Michael; Chua, Jocelyn; Cole, Rachel; Kennedy, Emma; James, Robert; Markusdottir, Ingibjorg; Monsen, Jeremy; Robertson, Lucy; Shah, Sonia

2013-01-01

A core component of applied educational and child psychology practice is the skilfulness with which practitioners are able to rigorously structure and conceptualise complex real world human problems. This is done in such a way that when they (with others) jointly work on them, there is an increased likelihood of positive outcomes being achieved…

Testing deep reticulate evolution in Amaryllidaceae Tribe Hippeastreae (Asparagales) with ITS and chloroplast sequence data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The phylogeny of Amaryllidaceae tribe Hippeastreae was inferred using chloroplast (3’ycf1, ndhF, trnL-F) and nuclear (ITS rDNA) sequence data under maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood frameworks. Network analyses were applied to resolve conflicting signals among data sets and putative scenarios...

Acculturation and Help-Seeking Behavior in Consultation: A Sociocultural Framework for Mental Health Service

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pham, Andy V.; Goforth, Anisa N.; Chun, Heejung; Castro-Olivo, Sara; Costa, Annela

2017-01-01

Many immigrant and ethnic minority families demonstrate reluctance to pursue or utilize mental health services in community-based and clinical settings, which often leads to poorer quality of care for children and greater likelihood of early termination. Cultural variations in help-seeking behavior and acculturation are likely to influence…

Cross-species integration of human health and ecological endpoints into risk assessment using the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure to environmental contaminants can influence both human health and ecological endpoints. Chemical risk assessments combine exposure and toxicity data to estimate the likelihood of adverse outcomes for these endpoints, but are rarely conducted in a manner that integrates ...

Estimating the population density of the Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) in a selectively logged forest in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Rayan, D Mark; Mohamad, Shariff Wan; Dorward, Leejiah; Aziz, Sheema Abdul; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Christopher, Wong Chai Thiam; Traeholt, Carl; Magintan, David

2012-12-01

The endangered Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) is threatened by large-scale habitat loss, forest fragmentation and increased hunting pressure. Conservation planning for this species, however, is hampered by a severe paucity of information on its ecology and population status. We present the first Asian tapir population density estimate from a camera trapping study targeting tigers in a selectively logged forest within Peninsular Malaysia using a spatially explicit capture-recapture maximum likelihood based framework. With a trap effort of 2496 nights, 17 individuals were identified corresponding to a density (standard error) estimate of 9.49 (2.55) adult tapirs/100 km(2) . Although our results include several caveats, we believe that our density estimate still serves as an important baseline to facilitate the monitoring of tapir population trends in Peninsular Malaysia. Our study also highlights the potential of extracting vital ecological and population information for other cryptic individually identifiable animals from tiger-centric studies, especially with the use of a spatially explicit capture-recapture maximum likelihood based framework. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray

1990-01-01

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. 'Likely' and 'by default' are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as 'possibility' and 'necessity'. To model these four forms probabilistically, a logic QDP and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequence results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

GAMBIT: the global and modular beyond-the-standard-model inference tool. Addendum for GAMBIT 1.1: Mathematica backends, SUSYHD interface and updated likelihoods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athron, Peter; Balazs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Dickinson, Hugh; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Lundberg, Johan; McKay, James; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Ripken, Joachim; Rogan, Christopher; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Seo, Seon-Hee; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Wild, Sebastian

2018-02-01

In Ref. (GAMBIT Collaboration: Athron et. al., Eur. Phys. J. C. arXiv:1705.07908, 2017) we introduced the global-fitting framework GAMBIT. In this addendum, we describe a new minor version increment of this package. GAMBIT 1.1 includes full support for Mathematica backends, which we describe in some detail here. As an example, we backend SUSYHD (Vega and Villadoro, JHEP 07:159, 2015), which calculates the mass of the Higgs boson in the MSSM from effective field theory. We also describe updated likelihoods in PrecisionBit and DarkBit, and updated decay data included in DecayBit.

Diagnostic accuracy of second-generation dual-source computed tomography coronary angiography with iterative reconstructions: a real-world experience.

PubMed

Maffei, E; Martini, C; Rossi, A; Mollet, N; Lario, C; Castiglione Morelli, M; Clemente, A; Gentile, G; Arcadi, T; Seitun, S; Catalano, O; Aldrovandi, A; Cademartiri, F

2012-08-01

The authors evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of second-generation dual-source (DSCT) computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) with iterative reconstructions for detecting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Between June 2010 and February 2011, we enrolled 160 patients (85 men; mean age 61.2±11.6 years) with suspected CAD. All patients underwent CTCA and conventional coronary angiography (CCA). For the CTCA scan (Definition Flash, Siemens), we use prospective tube current modulation and 70-100 ml of iodinated contrast material (Iomeprol 400 mgI/ ml, Bracco). Data sets were reconstructed with iterative reconstruction algorithm (IRIS, Siemens). CTCA and CCA reports were used to evaluate accuracy using the threshold for significant stenosis at ≥50% and ≥70%, respectively. No patient was excluded from the analysis. Heart rate was 64.3±11.9 bpm and radiation dose was 7.2±2.1 mSv. Disease prevalence was 30% (48/160). Sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of CTCA in detecting significant stenosis were 90.1%, 93.3%, 53.2% and 99.1% (per segment), 97.5%, 91.2%, 61.4% and 99.6% (per vessel) and 100%, 83%, 71.6% and 100% (per patient), respectively. Positive and negative likelihood ratios at the per-patient level were 5.89 and 0.0, respectively. CTCA with second-generation DSCT in the real clinical world shows a diagnostic performance comparable with previously reported validation studies. The excellent negative predictive value and likelihood ratio make CTCA a first-line noninvasive method for diagnosing obstructive CAD.

One tree to link them all: a phylogenetic dataset for the European tetrapoda.

PubMed

Roquet, Cristina; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried

2014-08-08

Since the ever-increasing availability of phylogenetic informative data, the last decade has seen an upsurge of ecological studies incorporating information on evolutionary relationships among species. However, detailed species-level phylogenies are still lacking for many large groups and regions, which are necessary for comprehensive large-scale eco-phylogenetic analyses. Here, we provide a dataset of 100 dated phylogenetic trees for all European tetrapods based on a mixture of supermatrix and supertree approaches. Phylogenetic inference was performed separately for each of the main Tetrapoda groups of Europe except mammals (i.e. amphibians, birds, squamates and turtles) by means of maximum likelihood (ML) analyses of supermatrix applying a tree constraint at the family (amphibians and squamates) or order (birds and turtles) levels based on consensus knowledge. For each group, we inferred 100 ML trees to be able to provide a phylogenetic dataset that accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty, and assessed node support with bootstrap analyses. Each tree was dated using penalized-likelihood and fossil calibration. The trees obtained were well-supported by existing knowledge and previous phylogenetic studies. For mammals, we modified the most complete supertree dataset available on the literature to include a recent update of the Carnivora clade. As a final step, we merged the phylogenetic trees of all groups to obtain a set of 100 phylogenetic trees for all European Tetrapoda species for which data was available (91%). We provide this phylogenetic dataset (100 chronograms) for the purpose of comparative analyses, macro-ecological or community ecology studies aiming to incorporate phylogenetic information while accounting for phylogenetic uncertainty.

Empirical projection-based basis-component decomposition method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brendel, Bernhard; Roessl, Ewald; Schlomka, Jens-Peter; Proksa, Roland

2009-02-01

Advances in the development of semiconductor based, photon-counting x-ray detectors stimulate research in the domain of energy-resolving pre-clinical and clinical computed tomography (CT). For counting detectors acquiring x-ray attenuation in at least three different energy windows, an extended basis component decomposition can be performed in which in addition to the conventional approach of Alvarez and Macovski a third basis component is introduced, e.g., a gadolinium based CT contrast material. After the decomposition of the measured projection data into the basis component projections, conventional filtered-backprojection reconstruction is performed to obtain the basis-component images. In recent work, this basis component decomposition was obtained by maximizing the likelihood-function of the measurements. This procedure is time consuming and often unstable for excessively noisy data or low intrinsic energy resolution of the detector. Therefore, alternative procedures are of interest. Here, we introduce a generalization of the idea of empirical dual-energy processing published by Stenner et al. to multi-energy, photon-counting CT raw data. Instead of working in the image-domain, we use prior spectral knowledge about the acquisition system (tube spectra, bin sensitivities) to parameterize the line-integrals of the basis component decomposition directly in the projection domain. We compare this empirical approach with the maximum-likelihood (ML) approach considering image noise and image bias (artifacts) and see that only moderate noise increase is to be expected for small bias in the empirical approach. Given the drastic reduction of pre-processing time, the empirical approach is considered a viable alternative to the ML approach.

Sedative load and salivary secretion and xerostomia in community-dwelling older people.

PubMed

Tiisanoja, Antti; Syrjälä, Anna-Maija; Komulainen, Kaija; Hartikainen, Sirpa; Taipale, Heidi; Knuuttila, Matti; Ylöstalo, Pekka

2016-06-01

The aim was to investigate how sedative load and the total number of drugs used are related to hyposalivation and xerostomia among 75-year-old or older dentate, non-smoking, community-dwelling people. The study population consisted of 152 older people from the Oral Health GeMS study. The data were collected by interviews and clinical examinations during 2004-2005. Sedative load, which measures the cumulative effect of taking multiple drugs with sedative properties, was calculated using the Sedative Load Model. The results showed that participants with a sedative load of either 1-2 or ≥3 had an increased likelihood of having low stimulated salivary flow (<0.7 ml/min; OR: 2.4; CI: 0.6-8.6 and OR: 11; CI: 2.2-59; respectively) and low unstimulated salivary flow (<0.1 ml/min; OR: 2.7, CI: 1.0-7.4 and OR: 4.5, CI: 1.0-20, respectively) compared with participants without a sedative load. Participants with a sedative load ≥3 had an increased likelihood of having xerostomia (OR: 2.5, CI: 0.5-12) compared with participants without a sedative load. The results showed that the association between the total number of drugs and hyposalivation was weaker than the association between sedative load and hyposalivation. Sedative load is strongly related to hyposalivation and to a lesser extent with xerostomia. The adverse effects of drugs on saliva secretion are specifically related to drugs with sedative properties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Likelihood analysis of spatial capture-recapture models for stratified or class structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Fuller, Angela K.; Sun, Catherine C.

2015-01-01

We develop a likelihood analysis framework for fitting spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models to data collected on class structured or stratified populations. Our interest is motivated by the necessity of accommodating the problem of missing observations of individual class membership. This is particularly problematic in SCR data arising from DNA analysis of scat, hair or other material, which frequently yields individual identity but fails to identify the sex. Moreover, this can represent a large fraction of the data and, given the typically small sample sizes of many capture-recapture studies based on DNA information, utilization of the data with missing sex information is necessary. We develop the class structured likelihood for the case of missing covariate values, and then we address the scaling of the likelihood so that models with and without class structured parameters can be formally compared regardless of missing values. We apply our class structured model to black bear data collected in New York in which sex could be determined for only 62 of 169 uniquely identified individuals. The models containing sex-specificity of both the intercept of the SCR encounter probability model and the distance coefficient, and including a behavioral response are strongly favored by log-likelihood. Estimated population sex ratio is strongly influenced by sex structure in model parameters illustrating the importance of rigorous modeling of sex differences in capture-recapture models.

Evaluation of properties over phylogenetic trees using stochastic logics.

PubMed

Requeno, José Ignacio; Colom, José Manuel

2016-06-14

Model checking has been recently introduced as an integrated framework for extracting information of the phylogenetic trees using temporal logics as a querying language, an extension of modal logics that imposes restrictions of a boolean formula along a path of events. The phylogenetic tree is considered a transition system modeling the evolution as a sequence of genomic mutations (we understand mutation as different ways that DNA can be changed), while this kind of logics are suitable for traversing it in a strict and exhaustive way. Given a biological property that we desire to inspect over the phylogeny, the verifier returns true if the specification is satisfied or a counterexample that falsifies it. However, this approach has been only considered over qualitative aspects of the phylogeny. In this paper, we repair the limitations of the previous framework for including and handling quantitative information such as explicit time or probability. To this end, we apply current probabilistic continuous-time extensions of model checking to phylogenetics. We reinterpret a catalog of qualitative properties in a numerical way, and we also present new properties that couldn't be analyzed before. For instance, we obtain the likelihood of a tree topology according to a mutation model. As case of study, we analyze several phylogenies in order to obtain the maximum likelihood with the model checking tool PRISM. In addition, we have adapted the software for optimizing the computation of maximum likelihoods. We have shown that probabilistic model checking is a competitive framework for describing and analyzing quantitative properties over phylogenetic trees. This formalism adds soundness and readability to the definition of models and specifications. Besides, the existence of model checking tools hides the underlying technology, omitting the extension, upgrade, debugging and maintenance of a software tool to the biologists. A set of benchmarks justify the feasibility of our approach.

Maximum Likelihood Implementation of an Isolation-with-Migration Model for Three Species.

PubMed

Dalquen, Daniel A; Zhu, Tianqi; Yang, Ziheng

2017-05-01

We develop a maximum likelihood (ML) method for estimating migration rates between species using genomic sequence data. A species tree is used to accommodate the phylogenetic relationships among three species, allowing for migration between the two sister species, while the third species is used as an out-group. A Markov chain characterization of the genealogical process of coalescence and migration is used to integrate out the migration histories at each locus analytically, whereas Gaussian quadrature is used to integrate over the coalescent times on each genealogical tree numerically. This is an extension of our early implementation of the symmetrical isolation-with-migration model for three species to accommodate arbitrary loci with two or three sequences per locus and to allow asymmetrical migration rates. Our implementation can accommodate tens of thousands of loci, making it feasible to analyze genome-scale data sets to test for gene flow. We calculate the posterior probabilities of gene trees at individual loci to identify genomic regions that are likely to have been transferred between species due to gene flow. We conduct a simulation study to examine the statistical properties of the likelihood ratio test for gene flow between the two in-group species and of the ML estimates of model parameters such as the migration rate. Inclusion of data from a third out-group species is found to increase dramatically the power of the test and the precision of parameter estimation. We compiled and analyzed several genomic data sets from the Drosophila fruit flies. Our analyses suggest no migration from D. melanogaster to D. simulans, and a significant amount of gene flow from D. simulans to D. melanogaster, at the rate of ~0.02 migrant individuals per generation. We discuss the utility of the multispecies coalescent model for species tree estimation, accounting for incomplete lineage sorting and migration. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Indocyanine Green Guided Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection: An Efficient Technique to Classify the Lymph Node Status of Patients with Prostate Cancer Who Underwent Radical Prostatectomy.

PubMed

Ramírez-Backhaus, Miguel; Mira Moreno, Alejandra; Gómez Ferrer, Alvaro; Calatrava Fons, Ana; Casanova, Juan; Solsona Narbón, Eduardo; Ortiz Rodríguez, Isabel María; Rubio Briones, José

2016-11-01

We evaluated the effectiveness of indocyanine green guided pelvic lymph node dissection for the optimal staging of prostate cancer and analyzed whether the technique could replace extended pelvic lymph node dissection. A solution of 25 mg indocyanine green in 5 ml sterile water was transperineally injected. Pelvic lymph node dissection was started with the indocyanine green stained nodes followed by extended pelvic lymph node dissection. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, predictive value and likelihood ratio of a negative test of indocyanine green guided pelvic lymph node dissection. A total of 84 patients with a median age of 63.55 years and a median prostate specific antigen of 8.48 ng/ml were included in the study. Of these patients 60.7% had intermediate risk disease and 25% had high or very high risk disease. A median of 7 indocyanine green stained nodes per patient was detected (range 2 to 18) with a median of 22 nodes excised during extended pelvic lymph node dissection. Lymph node metastasis was identified in 25 patients, 23 of whom had disease properly classified by indocyanine green guided pelvic lymph node dissection. The most frequent location of indocyanine green stained nodes was the proximal internal iliac artery followed by the fossa of Marcille. The negative predictive value was 96.7% and the likelihood ratio of a negative test was 8%. Overall 1,856 nodes were removed and 603 were stained indocyanine green. Pathological examination revealed 82 metastatic nodes, of which 60% were indocyanine green stained. The negative predictive value was 97.4% but the likelihood ratio of a negative test was 58.5%. Indocyanine green guided pelvic lymph node dissection correctly staged 97% of cases. However, according to our data it cannot replace extended pelvic lymph node dissection. Nevertheless, its high negative predictive value could allow us to avoid extended pelvic lymph node dissection if we had an accurate intraoperative lymph fluorescent analysis. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards a brief definition of burnout syndrome by subtypes: Development of the "Burnout Clinical Subtypes Questionnaire" (BCSQ-12)

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Burnout has traditionally been described by means of the dimensions of exhaustion, cynicism and lack of eficacy from the "Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey" (MBI-GS). The "Burnout Clinical Subtype Questionnaire" (BCSQ-12), comprising the dimensions of overload, lack of development and neglect, is proposed as a brief means of identifying the different ways this disorder is manifested. The aim of the study is to test the construct and criterial validity of the BCSQ-12. Method A cross-sectional design was used on a multi-occupational sample of randomly selected university employees (n = 826). An exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was performed on half of the sample using the maximum likelihood (ML) method with varimax orthogonal rotation, while confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed on the other half by means of the ML method. ROC curve analysis was preformed in order to assess the discriminatory capacity of BCSQ-12 when compared to MBI-GS. Cut-off points were proposed for the BCSQ-12 that optimized sensitivity and specificity. Multivariate binary logistic regression models were used to estimate effect size as an odds ratio (OR) adjusted for sociodemographic and occupational variables. Contrasts for sex and occupation were made using Mann-Whitney U and Kruskall-Wallis tests on the dimensions of both models. Results EFA offered a solution containing 3 factors with eigenvalues > 1, explaining 73.22% of variance. CFA presented the following indices: χ2 = 112.04 (p < 0.001), χ2/gl = 2.44, GFI = 0.958, AGFI = 0.929, RMSEA = 0.059, SRMR = 0.057, NFI = 0.958, NNFI = 0.963, IFI = 0.975, CFI = 0.974. The area under the ROC curve for 'overload' with respect to the 'exhaustion' was = 0.75 (95% CI = 0.71-0.79); it was = 0.80 (95% CI = 0.76-0.86) for 'lack of development' with respect to 'cynicism' and = 0.74 (95% CI = 0.70-0.78) for 'neglect' with respect to 'inefficacy'. The presence of 'overload' increased the likelihood of suffering from 'exhaustion' (OR = 5.25; 95% IC = 3.62-7.60); 'lack of development' increased the likelihood from 'cynicism' (OR = 6.77; 95% CI = 4.79-9.57); 'neglect' increased the likelihood from 'inefficacy' (OR = 5.21; 95% CI = 3.57-7.60). No differences were found with regard to sex, but there were differences depending on occupation. Conclusions Our results support the validity of the definition of burnout proposed in the BSCQ-12 through the brief differentiation of clinical subtypes. PMID:21933381

Training in cortical control of neuroprosthetic devices improves signal extraction from small neuronal ensembles.

PubMed

Helms Tillery, S I; Taylor, D M; Schwartz, A B

2003-01-01

We have recently developed a closed-loop environment in which we can test the ability of primates to control the motion of a virtual device using ensembles of simultaneously recorded neurons /29/. Here we use a maximum likelihood method to assess the information about task performance contained in the neuronal ensemble. We trained two animals to control the motion of a computer cursor in three dimensions. Initially the animals controlled cursor motion using arm movements, but eventually they learned to drive the cursor directly from cortical activity. Using a population vector (PV) based upon the relation between cortical activity and arm motion, the animals were able to control the cursor directly from the brain in a closed-loop environment, but with difficulty. We added a supervised learning method that modified the parameters of the PV according to task performance (adaptive PV), and found that animals were able to exert much finer control over the cursor motion from brain signals. Here we describe a maximum likelihood method (ML) to assess the information about target contained in neuronal ensemble activity. Using this method, we compared the information about target contained in the ensemble during arm control, during brain control early in the adaptive PV, and during brain control after the adaptive PV had settled and the animal could drive the cursor reliably and with fine gradations. During the arm-control task, the ML was able to determine the target of the movement in as few as 10% of the trials, and as many as 75% of the trials, with an average of 65%. This average dropped when the animals used a population vector to control motion of the cursor. On average we could determine the target in around 35% of the trials. This low percentage was also reflected in poor control of the cursor, so that the animal was unable to reach the target in a large percentage of trials. Supervised adjustment of the population vector parameters produced new weighting coefficients and directional tuning parameters for many neurons. This produced a much better performance of the brain-controlled cursor motion. It was also reflected in the maximum likelihood measure of cell activity, producing the correct target based only on neuronal activity in over 80% of the trials on average. The changes in maximum likelihood estimates of target location based on ensemble firing show that an animal's ability to regulate the motion of a cortically controlled device is not crucially dependent on the experimenter's ability to estimate intention from neuronal activity.

Approximate likelihood calculation on a phylogeny for Bayesian estimation of divergence times.

PubMed

dos Reis, Mario; Yang, Ziheng

2011-07-01

The molecular clock provides a powerful way to estimate species divergence times. If information on some species divergence times is available from the fossil or geological record, it can be used to calibrate a phylogeny and estimate divergence times for all nodes in the tree. The Bayesian method provides a natural framework to incorporate different sources of information concerning divergence times, such as information in the fossil and molecular data. Current models of sequence evolution are intractable in a Bayesian setting, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to generate the posterior distribution of divergence times and evolutionary rates. This method is computationally expensive, as it involves the repeated calculation of the likelihood function. Here, we explore the use of Taylor expansion to approximate the likelihood during MCMC iteration. The approximation is much faster than conventional likelihood calculation. However, the approximation is expected to be poor when the proposed parameters are far from the likelihood peak. We explore the use of parameter transforms (square root, logarithm, and arcsine) to improve the approximation to the likelihood curve. We found that the new methods, particularly the arcsine-based transform, provided very good approximations under relaxed clock models and also under the global clock model when the global clock is not seriously violated. The approximation is poorer for analysis under the global clock when the global clock is seriously wrong and should thus not be used. The results suggest that the approximate method may be useful for Bayesian dating analysis using large data sets.

Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

2009-05-01

Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, M.; Laporte, F.; Moury, M.; Newman, L.; Shepperd, R.

2017-01-01

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Novel joint cupping clinical maneuver for ultrasonographic detection of knee joint effusions.

PubMed

Uryasev, Oleg; Joseph, Oliver C; McNamara, John P; Dallas, Apostolos P

2013-11-01

Knee effusions occur due to traumatic and atraumatic causes. Clinical diagnosis currently relies on several provocative techniques to demonstrate knee joint effusions. Portable bedside ultrasonography (US) is becoming an adjunct to diagnosis of effusions. We hypothesized that a US approach with a clinical joint cupping maneuver increases sensitivity in identifying effusions as compared to US alone. Using unembalmed cadaver knees, we injected fluid to create effusions up to 10 mL. Each effusion volume was measured in a lateral transverse location with respect to the patella. For each effusion we applied a joint cupping maneuver from an inferior approach, and re-measured the effusion. With increased volume of saline infusion, the mean depth of effusion on ultrasound imaging increased as well. Using a 2-mm cutoff, we visualized an effusion without the joint cupping maneuver at 2.5 mL and with the joint cupping technique at 1 mL. Mean effusion diameter increased on average 0.26 cm for the joint cupping maneuver as compared to without the maneuver. The effusion depth was statistically different at 2.5 and 7.5 mL (P < .05). Utilizing a joint cupping technique in combination with US is a valuable tool in assessing knee effusions, especially those of subclinical levels. Effusion measurements are complicated by uneven distribution of effusion fluid. A clinical joint cupping maneuver concentrates the fluid in one recess of the joint, increasing the likelihood of fluid detection using US. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water: an essential but overlooked nutrient.

PubMed

Kleiner, S M

1999-02-01

Water is an essential nutrient required for life. To be well hydrated, the average sedentary adult man must consume at least 2,900 mL (12 c) fluid per day, and the average sedentary adult woman at least 2,200 mL (9 c) fluid per day, in the form of noncaffeinated, nonalcoholic beverages, soups, and foods. Solid foods contribute approximately 1,000 mL (4 c) water, with an additional 250 mL (1 c) coming from the water of oxidation. The Nationwide Food Consumption Surveys indicate that a portion of the population may be chronically mildly dehydrated. Several factors may increase the likelihood of chronic, mild dehydration, including a poor thirst mechanism, dissatisfaction with the taste of water, common consumption of the natural diuretics caffeine and alcohol, participation in exercise, and environmental conditions. Dehydration of as little as 2% loss of body weight results in impaired physiological and performance responses. New research indicates that fluid consumption in general and water consumption in particular can have an effect on the risk of urinary stone disease; cancers of the breast, colon, and urinary tract; childhood and adolescent obesity; mitral valve prolapse; salivary gland function; and overall health in the elderly. Dietitians should be encouraged to promote and monitor fluid and water intake among all of their clients and patients through education and to help them design a fluid intake plan. The influence of chronic mild dehydration on health and disease merits further research.

Direct Position Determination of Unknown Signals in the Presence of Multipath Propagation

PubMed Central

Yu, Hongyi

2018-01-01

A novel geolocation architecture, termed “Multiple Transponders and Multiple Receivers for Multiple Emitters Positioning System (MTRE)” is proposed in this paper. Existing Direct Position Determination (DPD) methods take advantage of a rather simple channel assumption (line of sight channels with complex path attenuations) and a simplified MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm cost function to avoid the high dimension searching. We point out that the simplified assumption and cost function reduce the positioning accuracy because of the singularity of the array manifold in a multi-path environment. We present a DPD model for unknown signals in the presence of Multi-path Propagation (MP-DPD) in this paper. MP-DPD adds non-negative real path attenuation constraints to avoid the mistake caused by the singularity of the array manifold. The Multi-path Propagation MUSIC (MP-MUSIC) method and the Active Set Algorithm (ASA) are designed to reduce the dimension of searching. A Multi-path Propagation Maximum Likelihood (MP-ML) method is proposed in addition to overcome the limitation of MP-MUSIC in the sense of a time-sensitive application. An iterative algorithm and an approach of initial value setting are given to make the MP-ML time consumption acceptable. Numerical results validate the performances improvement of MP-MUSIC and MP-ML. A closed form of the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) is derived as a benchmark to evaluate the performances of MP-MUSIC and MP-ML. PMID:29562601

Direct Position Determination of Unknown Signals in the Presence of Multipath Propagation.

PubMed

Du, Jianping; Wang, Ding; Yu, Wanting; Yu, Hongyi

2018-03-17

A novel geolocation architecture, termed "Multiple Transponders and Multiple Receivers for Multiple Emitters Positioning System (MTRE)" is proposed in this paper. Existing Direct Position Determination (DPD) methods take advantage of a rather simple channel assumption (line of sight channels with complex path attenuations) and a simplified MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm cost function to avoid the high dimension searching. We point out that the simplified assumption and cost function reduce the positioning accuracy because of the singularity of the array manifold in a multi-path environment. We present a DPD model for unknown signals in the presence of Multi-path Propagation (MP-DPD) in this paper. MP-DPD adds non-negative real path attenuation constraints to avoid the mistake caused by the singularity of the array manifold. The Multi-path Propagation MUSIC (MP-MUSIC) method and the Active Set Algorithm (ASA) are designed to reduce the dimension of searching. A Multi-path Propagation Maximum Likelihood (MP-ML) method is proposed in addition to overcome the limitation of MP-MUSIC in the sense of a time-sensitive application. An iterative algorithm and an approach of initial value setting are given to make the MP-ML time consumption acceptable. Numerical results validate the performances improvement of MP-MUSIC and MP-ML. A closed form of the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) is derived as a benchmark to evaluate the performances of MP-MUSIC and MP-ML.

OpenTox predictive toxicology framework: toxicological ontology and semantic media wiki-based OpenToxipedia

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The OpenTox Framework, developed by the partners in the OpenTox project (http://www.opentox.org), aims at providing a unified access to toxicity data, predictive models and validation procedures. Interoperability of resources is achieved using a common information model, based on the OpenTox ontologies, describing predictive algorithms, models and toxicity data. As toxicological data may come from different, heterogeneous sources, a deployed ontology, unifying the terminology and the resources, is critical for the rational and reliable organization of the data, and its automatic processing. Results The following related ontologies have been developed for OpenTox: a) Toxicological ontology – listing the toxicological endpoints; b) Organs system and Effects ontology – addressing organs, targets/examinations and effects observed in in vivo studies; c) ToxML ontology – representing semi-automatic conversion of the ToxML schema; d) OpenTox ontology– representation of OpenTox framework components: chemical compounds, datasets, types of algorithms, models and validation web services; e) ToxLink–ToxCast assays ontology and f) OpenToxipedia community knowledge resource on toxicology terminology. OpenTox components are made available through standardized REST web services, where every compound, data set, and predictive method has a unique resolvable address (URI), used to retrieve its Resource Description Framework (RDF) representation, or to initiate the associated calculations and generate new RDF-based resources. The services support the integration of toxicity and chemical data from various sources, the generation and validation of computer models for toxic effects, seamless integration of new algorithms and scientifically sound validation routines and provide a flexible framework, which allows building arbitrary number of applications, tailored to solving different problems by end users (e.g. toxicologists). Availability The OpenTox toxicological ontology projects may be accessed via the OpenTox ontology development page http://www.opentox.org/dev/ontology; the OpenTox ontology is available as OWL at http://opentox.org/api/1 1/opentox.owl, the ToxML - OWL conversion utility is an open source resource available at http://ambit.svn.sourceforge.net/viewvc/ambit/branches/toxml-utils/ PMID:22541598

OpenTox predictive toxicology framework: toxicological ontology and semantic media wiki-based OpenToxipedia.

PubMed

Tcheremenskaia, Olga; Benigni, Romualdo; Nikolova, Ivelina; Jeliazkova, Nina; Escher, Sylvia E; Batke, Monika; Baier, Thomas; Poroikov, Vladimir; Lagunin, Alexey; Rautenberg, Micha; Hardy, Barry

2012-04-24

The OpenTox Framework, developed by the partners in the OpenTox project (http://www.opentox.org), aims at providing a unified access to toxicity data, predictive models and validation procedures. Interoperability of resources is achieved using a common information model, based on the OpenTox ontologies, describing predictive algorithms, models and toxicity data. As toxicological data may come from different, heterogeneous sources, a deployed ontology, unifying the terminology and the resources, is critical for the rational and reliable organization of the data, and its automatic processing. The following related ontologies have been developed for OpenTox: a) Toxicological ontology - listing the toxicological endpoints; b) Organs system and Effects ontology - addressing organs, targets/examinations and effects observed in in vivo studies; c) ToxML ontology - representing semi-automatic conversion of the ToxML schema; d) OpenTox ontology- representation of OpenTox framework components: chemical compounds, datasets, types of algorithms, models and validation web services; e) ToxLink-ToxCast assays ontology and f) OpenToxipedia community knowledge resource on toxicology terminology.OpenTox components are made available through standardized REST web services, where every compound, data set, and predictive method has a unique resolvable address (URI), used to retrieve its Resource Description Framework (RDF) representation, or to initiate the associated calculations and generate new RDF-based resources.The services support the integration of toxicity and chemical data from various sources, the generation and validation of computer models for toxic effects, seamless integration of new algorithms and scientifically sound validation routines and provide a flexible framework, which allows building arbitrary number of applications, tailored to solving different problems by end users (e.g. toxicologists). The OpenTox toxicological ontology projects may be accessed via the OpenTox ontology development page http://www.opentox.org/dev/ontology; the OpenTox ontology is available as OWL at http://opentox.org/api/1 1/opentox.owl, the ToxML - OWL conversion utility is an open source resource available at http://ambit.svn.sourceforge.net/viewvc/ambit/branches/toxml-utils/

Application of dynamic traffic assignment to advanced managed lane modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

In this study, a demand estimation framework is developed for assessing the managed lane (ML) : strategies by utilizing dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) modeling, instead of the traditional : approaches that are based on the static traffic assignment...

Graphical CONOPS Prototype to Demonstrate Emerging Methods, Processes, and Tools at ARDEC

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-17

Concept Engineering Framework (ICEF), an extensive literature review was conducted to discover metrics that exist for evaluating concept engineering...language to ICEF to SysML ................................................ 34 Table 5 Artifact metrics ...50 Table 6 Collaboration metrics

On the uncertainty in single molecule fluorescent lifetime and energy emission measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Emery N.; Zhang, Zhenhua; Mccollom, Alex D.

1995-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least square methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67% of those can be noise and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probably density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. the ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background nose and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

On the Uncertainty in Single Molecule Fluorescent Lifetime and Energy Emission Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Emery N.; Zhang, Zhenhua; McCollom, Alex D.

1996-01-01

Time-correlated single photon counting has recently been combined with mode-locked picosecond pulsed excitation to measure the fluorescent lifetimes and energy emissions of single molecules in a flow stream. Maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares methods agree and are optimal when the number of detected photons is large, however, in single molecule fluorescence experiments the number of detected photons can be less than 20, 67 percent of those can be noise, and the detection time is restricted to 10 nanoseconds. Under the assumption that the photon signal and background noise are two independent inhomogeneous Poisson processes, we derive the exact joint arrival time probability density of the photons collected in a single counting experiment performed in the presence of background noise. The model obviates the need to bin experimental data for analysis, and makes it possible to analyze formally the effect of background noise on the photon detection experiment using both ML or Bayesian methods. For both methods we derive the joint and marginal probability densities of the fluorescent lifetime and fluorescent emission. The ML and Bayesian methods are compared in an analysis of simulated single molecule fluorescence experiments of Rhodamine 110 using different combinations of expected background noise and expected fluorescence emission. While both the ML or Bayesian procedures perform well for analyzing fluorescence emissions, the Bayesian methods provide more realistic measures of uncertainty in the fluorescent lifetimes. The Bayesian methods would be especially useful for measuring uncertainty in fluorescent lifetime estimates in current single molecule flow stream experiments where the expected fluorescence emission is low. Both the ML and Bayesian algorithms can be automated for applications in molecular biology.

Insolvency risk in health carriers: innovation, competition, and public protection.

PubMed

Akula, J L

1997-01-01

This paper reviews the framework of regulatory and managerial devices that have evolved in response to the special dangers to the public posed by insolvency of health carriers. These devices include "prudential" measures designed to decrease the likelihood of insolvency, and measures to "protect enrollees" in the event that insolvency occurs nevertheless. It also reviews the current debate over how this framework should be adapted to new forms of risk-bearing entities, especially provider-sponsored networks engaged in direct contracting with purchasers of coverage. Parallels to solvency concerns in the banking industry are explored.

Agatha: Disentangling period signals from correlated noise in a periodogram framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, F.; Tuomi, M.; Jones, H. R. A.

2018-04-01

Agatha is a framework of periodograms to disentangle periodic signals from correlated noise and to solve the two-dimensional model selection problem: signal dimension and noise model dimension. These periodograms are calculated by applying likelihood maximization and marginalization and combined in a self-consistent way. Agatha can be used to select the optimal noise model and to test the consistency of signals in time and can be applied to time series analyses in other astronomical and scientific disciplines. An interactive web implementation of the software is also available at http://agatha.herts.ac.uk/.

Scientific Knowledge and Attitude Change: The Impact of a Citizen Science Project. Research Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brossard, Dominique; Lewenstein, Bruce; Bonney, Rick

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the evaluation of an informal science education project, The Birdhouse Network (TBN) of the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology. The Elaboration Likelihood Model and the theory of Experiential Education were used as frameworks to analyse the impact of TBN on participants' attitudes toward science and the environment, on their…

Understanding Attitude Change in Developing Effective Substance Abuse Prevention Programs for Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Cynthia G.

1996-01-01

Alcohol and drug use may be a significant part of the adolescent, high school experience. Programs should be based on an understanding of attitudes and patterns of use, and how change occurs. Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion is a framework with which to examine attitude change and provide a base for building sound drug prevention…

The Role of Persuasive Arguments in Changing Affirmative Action Attitudes and Expressed Behavior in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Fiona A.; Charles, Margaret A.; Nelson, Jacqueline K.

2008-01-01

The research reported in this article examined the conditions under which persuasive arguments are most effective in changing university students' attitudes and expressed behavior with respect to affirmative action (AA). The conceptual framework was a model that integrated the theory of reasoned action and the elaboration likelihood model of…

Understanding Female Sport Attrition in a Stereotypical Male Sport within the Framework of Eccles's Expectancy-Value Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guillet, Emma; Sarrazin, Philippe; Fontayne, Paul; Brustad, Robert J.

2006-01-01

An empirical research study based upon the expectancy-value model of Eccles and colleagues (1983) investigated the effect of gender-role orientations on psychological dimensions of female athletes' sport participation and the likelihood of their continued participation in a stereotypical masculine activity. The model (Eccles et al., 1983) posits…

Using the Extended Parallel Process Model to Examine Teachers' Likelihood of Intervening in Bullying

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duong, Jeffrey; Bradshaw, Catherine P.

2013-01-01

Background: Teachers play a critical role in protecting students from harm in schools, but little is known about their attitudes toward addressing problems like bullying. Previous studies have rarely used theoretical frameworks, making it difficult to advance this area of research. Using the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM), we examined the…

A Systemic Approach to Implementing a Protective Factors Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parsons, Beverly; Jessup, Patricia; Moore, Marah

2014-01-01

The leadership team of the national Quality Improvement Center on early Childhood ventured into the frontiers of deep change in social systems by funding four research projects. The purpose of the research projects was to learn about implementing a protective factors approach with the goal of reducing the likelihood of child abuse and neglect. In…

Exploring the Relationship between Cognitive Characteristics and Responsiveness to a Tier 3 Reading Fluency Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Field, Stacey Allyson

2015-01-01

Current research suggests that certain cognitive functions predict the likelihood of intervention response for students who receive Tier 2 instruction through an RTI-framework. However, less is known about cognitive predictors of responder status at a theoretically more critical point of divergence within the RTI model: Tier 3. Moreover, no…

Lord's Wald Test for Detecting Dif in Multidimensional Irt Models: A Comparison of Two Estimation Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Soo; Suh, Youngsuk

2018-01-01

Lord's Wald test for differential item functioning (DIF) has not been studied extensively in the context of the multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) framework. In this article, Lord's Wald test was implemented using two estimation approaches, marginal maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation, to detect…

The Factor Structure of the Spiritual Well-Being Scale in Veterans Experienced Chemical Weapon Exposure.

PubMed

Sharif Nia, Hamid; Pahlevan Sharif, Saeed; Boyle, Christopher; Yaghoobzadeh, Ameneh; Tahmasbi, Bahram; Rassool, G Hussein; Taebei, Mozhgan; Soleimani, Mohammad Ali

2018-04-01

This study aimed to determine the factor structure of the spiritual well-being among a sample of the Iranian veterans. In this methodological research, 211 male veterans of Iran-Iraq warfare completed the Paloutzian and Ellison spiritual well-being scale. Maximum likelihood (ML) with oblique rotation was used to assess domain structure of the spiritual well-being. The construct validity of the scale was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), convergent validity, and discriminant validity. Reliability was evaluated with Cronbach's alpha, Theta (θ), and McDonald Omega (Ω) coefficients, intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), and construct reliability (CR). Results of ML and CFA suggested three factors which were labeled "relationship with God," "belief in fate and destiny," and "life optimism." The ICC, coefficients of the internal consistency, and CR were >.7 for the factors of the scale. Convergent validity and discriminant validity did not fulfill the requirements. The Persian version of spiritual well-being scale demonstrated suitable validity and reliability among the veterans of Iran-Iraq warfare.

Optimum quantum receiver for detecting weak signals in PAM communication systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Navneet; Rawat, Tarun Kumar; Parthasarathy, Harish; Gautam, Kumar

2017-09-01

This paper deals with the modeling of an optimum quantum receiver for pulse amplitude modulator (PAM) communication systems. The information bearing sequence {I_k}_{k=0}^{N-1} is estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The ML method is based on quantum mechanical measurements of an observable X in the Hilbert space of the quantum system at discrete times, when the Hamiltonian of the system is perturbed by an operator obtained by modulating a potential V with a PAM signal derived from the information bearing sequence {I_k}_{k=0}^{N-1}. The measurement process at each time instant causes collapse of the system state to an observable eigenstate. All probabilities of getting different outcomes from an observable are calculated using the perturbed evolution operator combined with the collapse postulate. For given probability densities, calculation of the mean square error evaluates the performance of the receiver. Finally, we present an example involving estimating an information bearing sequence that modulates a quantum electromagnetic field incident on a quantum harmonic oscillator.

Data Format Classification for Autonomous Software Defined Radios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Marvin; Divsalar, Dariush

2005-01-01

We present maximum-likelihood (ML) coherent and noncoherent classifiers for discriminating between NRZ and Manchester coded (biphase-L) data formats for binary phase-shift-keying (BPSK) modulation. Such classification of the data format is an essential element of so-called autonomous software defined radio (SDR) receivers (similar to so-called cognitive SDR receivers in the military application) where it is desired that the receiver perform each of its functions by extracting the appropriate knowledge from the received signal and, if possible, with as little information of the other signal parameters as possible. Small and large SNR approximations to the ML classifiers are also proposed that lead to simpler implementation with comparable performance in their respective SNR regions. Numerical performance results obtained by a combination of computer simulation and, wherever possible, theoretical analyses, are presented and comparisons are made among the various configurations based on the probability of misclassification as a performance criterion. Extensions to other modulations such as QPSK are readily accomplished using the same methods described in the paper.

Maximum likelihood decoding analysis of Accumulate-Repeat-Accumulate Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbasfar, Aliazam; Divsalar, Dariush; Yao, Kung

2004-01-01

Repeat-Accumulate (RA) codes are the simplest turbo-like codes that achieve good performance. However, they cannot compete with Turbo codes or low-density parity check codes (LDPC) as far as performance is concerned. The Accumulate Repeat Accumulate (ARA) codes, as a subclass of LDPC codes, are obtained by adding a pre-coder in front of RA codes with puncturing where an accumulator is chosen as a precoder. These codes not only are very simple, but also achieve excellent performance with iterative decoding. In this paper, the performance of these codes with (ML) decoding are analyzed and compared to random codes by very tight bounds. The weight distribution of some simple ARA codes is obtained, and through existing tightest bounds we have shown the ML SNR threshold of ARA codes approaches very closely to the performance of random codes. We have shown that the use of precoder improves the SNR threshold but interleaving gain remains unchanged with respect to RA code with puncturing.

Detecting Candida albicans in human milk.

PubMed

Morrill, Jimi Francis; Pappagianis, Demosthenes; Heinig, M Jane; Lönnerdal, Bo; Dewey, Kathryn G

2003-01-01

Procedures for diagnosis of mammary candidosis, including laboratory confirmation, are not well defined. Lactoferrin present in human milk can inhibit growth of Candida albicans, thereby limiting the ability to detect yeast infections. The inhibitory effect of various lactoferrin concentrations on the growth of C. albicans in whole human milk was studied. The addition of iron to the milk led to a two- to threefold increase in cell counts when milk contained 3.0 mg of lactoferrin/ml and markedly reduced the likelihood of false-negative culture results. This method may provide the necessary objective support needed for diagnosis of mammary candidosis.

High creatinine clearance in critically ill patients with community-acquired acute infectious meningitis.

PubMed

Lautrette, Alexandre; Phan, Thuy-Nga; Ouchchane, Lemlih; Aithssain, Ali; Tixier, Vincent; Heng, Anne-Elisabeth; Souweine, Bertrand

2012-09-27

A high dose of anti-infective agents is recommended when treating infectious meningitis. High creatinine clearance (CrCl) may affect the pharmacokinetic / pharmacodynamic relationships of anti-infective drugs eliminated by the kidneys. We recorded the incidence of high CrCl in intensive care unit (ICU) patients admitted with meningitis and assessed the diagnostic accuracy of two common methods used to identify high CrCl. Observational study performed in consecutive patients admitted with community-acquired acute infectious meningitis (defined by >7 white blood cells/mm3 in cerebral spinal fluid) between January 2006 and December 2009 to one medical ICU. During the first 7 days following ICU admission, CrCl was measured from 24-hr urine samples (24-hr-UV/P creatinine) and estimated according to Cockcroft-Gault formula and the simplified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation. High CrCl was defined as CrCl >140 ml/min/1.73 m2 by 24-hr-UV/P creatinine. Diagnostic accuracy was performed with ROC curves analysis. Thirty two patients were included. High CrCl was present in 8 patients (25%) on ICU admission and in 15 patients (47%) during the first 7 ICU days for a median duration of 3 (1-4) days. For the Cockcroft-Gault formula, the best threshold to predict high CrCl was 101 ml/min/1.73 m2 (sensitivity: 0.96, specificity: 0.75, AUC = 0.90 ± 0.03) with a negative likelihood ratio of 0.06. For the simplified MDRD equation, the best threshold to predict high CrCl was 108 ml/min/1.73 m2 (sensitivity: 0.91, specificity: 0.80, AUC = 0.88 ± 0.03) with a negative likelihood ratio of 0.11. There was no difference between the estimated methods in the diagnostic accuracy of identifying high CrCl (p = 0.30). High CrCl is frequently observed in ICU patients admitted with community-acquired acute infectious meningitis. The estimated methods of CrCl could be used as a screening tool to identify high CrCl.

The evolutionary history of holometabolous insects inferred from transcriptome-based phylogeny and comprehensive morphological data.

PubMed

Peters, Ralph S; Meusemann, Karen; Petersen, Malte; Mayer, Christoph; Wilbrandt, Jeanne; Ziesmann, Tanja; Donath, Alexander; Kjer, Karl M; Aspöck, Ulrike; Aspöck, Horst; Aberer, Andre; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Friedrich, Frank; Hünefeld, Frank; Niehuis, Oliver; Beutel, Rolf G; Misof, Bernhard

2014-03-20

Despite considerable progress in systematics, a comprehensive scenario of the evolution of phenotypic characters in the mega-diverse Holometabola based on a solid phylogenetic hypothesis was still missing. We addressed this issue by de novo sequencing transcriptome libraries of representatives of all orders of holometabolan insects (13 species in total) and by using a previously published extensive morphological dataset. We tested competing phylogenetic hypotheses by analyzing various specifically designed sets of amino acid sequence data, using maximum likelihood (ML) based tree inference and Four-cluster Likelihood Mapping (FcLM). By maximum parsimony-based mapping of the morphological data on the phylogenetic relationships we traced evolutionary transformations at the phenotypic level and reconstructed the groundplan of Holometabola and of selected subgroups. In our analysis of the amino acid sequence data of 1,343 single-copy orthologous genes, Hymenoptera are placed as sister group to all remaining holometabolan orders, i.e., to a clade Aparaglossata, comprising two monophyletic subunits Mecopterida (Amphiesmenoptera + Antliophora) and Neuropteroidea (Neuropterida + Coleopterida). The monophyly of Coleopterida (Coleoptera and Strepsiptera) remains ambiguous in the analyses of the transcriptome data, but appears likely based on the morphological data. Highly supported relationships within Neuropterida and Antliophora are Raphidioptera + (Neuroptera + monophyletic Megaloptera), and Diptera + (Siphonaptera + Mecoptera). ML tree inference and FcLM yielded largely congruent results. However, FcLM, which was applied here for the first time to large phylogenomic supermatrices, displayed additional signal in the datasets that was not identified in the ML trees. Our phylogenetic results imply that an orthognathous larva belongs to the groundplan of Holometabola, with compound eyes and well-developed thoracic legs, externally feeding on plants or fungi. Ancestral larvae of Aparaglossata were prognathous, equipped with single larval eyes (stemmata), and possibly agile and predacious. Ancestral holometabolan adults likely resembled in their morphology the groundplan of adult neopteran insects. Within Aparaglossata, the adult's flight apparatus and ovipositor underwent strong modifications. We show that the combination of well-resolved phylogenies obtained by phylogenomic analyses and well-documented extensive morphological datasets is an appropriate basis for reconstructing complex morphological transformations and for the inference of evolutionary histories.

Soluble CD30 in patients with antibody-mediated rejection of the kidney allograft.

PubMed

Slavcev, Antonij; Honsova, Eva; Lodererova, Alena; Pavlova, Yelena; Sajdlova, Helena; Vitko, Stefan; Skibova, Jelena; Striz, Ilja; Viklicky, Ondrej

2007-07-01

The aim of our retrospective study was to evaluate the clinical significance of measurement of the soluble CD30 (sCD30) molecule for the prediction of antibody-mediated (humoral) rejection (HR). Sixty-two kidney transplant recipients (thirty-one C4d-positive and thirty-one C4d-negative patients) were included into the study. Soluble CD30 levels were evaluated before transplantation and during periods of graft function deterioration. The median concentrations of the sCD30 molecule were identical in C4d-positive and C4d-negative patients before and after transplantation (65.5 vs. 65.0 and 28.2 vs. 36.0 U/ml, respectively). C4d+ patients who developed DSA de novo had a tendency to have higher sCD30 levels before transplantation (80.7+/-53.6 U/ml, n=8) compared with C4d-negative patients (65.0+/-33.4 U/ml, n=15). Soluble CD30 levels were evaluated as positive and negative (>or=100 U/ml and <100 U/ml respectively) and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of sCD30 estimation with regard to finding C4d deposits in peritubular capillaries were determined. The sensitivity of sCD30+ testing was generally below 40%, while the specificity of the test, i.e. the likelihood that if sCD30 testing is negative, C4d deposits would be absent, was 82%. C4d+ patients who developed DSA de novo were evaluated separately; the specificity of sCD30 testing for the incidence of HR in this cohort was 86%. We could not confirm in our study that high sCD30 levels (>or=100 U/ml) might be predictive for the incidence of HR. Negative sCD30 values might be however helpful for identifying patients with a low risk for development of DSA and antibody-mediated rejection.

Outcomes of Multiple Listing for Adult Heart Transplantation in the United States: Analysis of OPTN Data from 2000 to 2013

PubMed Central

Givens, Raymond C.; Dardas, Todd; Clerkin, Kevin J.; Restaino, Susan; Schulze, P. Christian; Mancini, Donna M.

2015-01-01

Background Heart transplant (HT) candidates in the U.S. may register at multiple centers. Not all candidates have the resources and mobility needed for multiple-listing; thus this policy may advantage wealthier and less sick patients. Objectives We assessed the association of multiple-listing with waitlist outcomes and post-HT survival. Methods We identified 33,928 adult candidates for a first single-organ HT between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2013 in the OPTN database. Results We identified 679 multiple-listed candidates (ML, 2.0%), who were younger (median age 53 years [IQR 43–60] vs. 55 [45–61], p <0.0001), more often white (76.4% vs 70.7%, p =0.0010) and privately insured (65.5% vs 56.3%, p <0.0001), and lived in ZIP codes with higher median incomes (90,153 [25,471-253,831] vs 68,986 [19,471-219,702], p =0.0015). Likelihood of ML increased with the primary center’s median waiting time. ML candidates had lower initial priority (39.0% 1A or 1B vs 55.1%, p <0.0001) and predicted 90-day waitlist mortality (2.9% [2.3–4.7] vs 3.6% [2.3–6.0], p <0.0001), but were frequently upgraded at secondary centers (58.2% 1A/1B; p <0.0001 vs ML primary listing). ML candidates had a higher HT rate (74.4% vs 70.2%, p =0.0196) and lower waitlist mortality (8.1% vs 12.2%, p =0.0011). Compared to a propensity-matched cohort, the relative ML HT rate was 3.02 (95% CI 2.59–3.52, p <0.0001). There were no post-HT survival differences. Conclusions Multiple-listing is a rational response to organ shortage but may advantage patients with the means to participate rather than the most medically needy. The multiple-listing policy should be overturned. PMID:26577617

A novel framework for the temporal analysis of bone mineral density in metastatic lesions using CT images of the femur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knoop, Tom H.; Derikx, Loes C.; Verdonschot, Nico; Slump, Cornelis H.

2015-03-01

In the progressive stages of cancer, metastatic lesions in often develop in the femur. The accompanying pain and risk of fracture dramatically affect the quality of life of the patient. Radiotherapy is often administered as palliative treatment to relieve pain and restore the bone around the lesion. It is thought to affect the bone mineralization of the treated region, but the quantitative relation between radiation dose and femur remineralization remains unclear. A new framework for the longitudinal analysis of CT-scans of patients receiving radiotherapy is presented to investigate this relationship. The implemented framework is capable of automatic calibration of Hounsfield Units to calcium equivalent values and the estimation of a prediction interval per scan. Other features of the framework are temporal registration of femurs using elastix, transformation of arbitrary Regions Of Interests (ROI), and extraction of metrics for analysis. Build in Matlab, the modular approach aids easy adaptation to the pertinent questions in the explorative phase of the research. For validation purposes, an in-vitro model consisting of a human cadaver femur with a milled hole in the intertrochanteric region was used, representing a femur with a metastatic lesion. The hole was incrementally stacked with plates of PMMA bone cement with variable radiopaqueness. Using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, changes in density distribution due to an increase of the calcium concentration could be discriminated. In a 21 cm3 ROI, changes in 8% of the volume from 888 ± 57mg • ml-1 to 1000 ± 80mg • ml-1 could be statistically proven using the proposed framework. In conclusion, the newly developed framework proved to be a useful and flexible tool for the analysis of longitudinal CT data.

Influence function for robust phylogenetic reconstructions.

PubMed

Bar-Hen, Avner; Mariadassou, Mahendra; Poursat, Marie-Anne; Vandenkoornhuyse, Philippe

2008-05-01

Based on the computation of the influence function, a tool to measure the impact of each piece of sampled data on the statistical inference of a parameter, we propose to analyze the support of the maximum-likelihood (ML) tree for each site. We provide a new tool for filtering data sets (nucleotides, amino acids, and others) in the context of ML phylogenetic reconstructions. Because different sites support different phylogenic topologies in different ways, outlier sites, that is, sites with a very negative influence value, are important: they can drastically change the topology resulting from the statistical inference. Therefore, these outlier sites must be clearly identified and their effects accounted for before drawing biological conclusions from the inferred tree. A matrix containing 158 fungal terminals all belonging to Chytridiomycota, Zygomycota, and Glomeromycota is analyzed. We show that removing the strongest outlier from the analysis strikingly modifies the ML topology, with a loss of as many as 20% of the internal nodes. As a result, estimating the topology on the filtered data set results in a topology with enhanced bootstrap support. From this analysis, the polyphyletic status of the fungal phyla Chytridiomycota and Zygomycota is reinforced, suggesting the necessity of revisiting the systematics of these fungal groups. We show the ability of influence function to produce new evolution hypotheses.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

Does the choice of nucleotide substitution models matter topologically?

PubMed

Hoff, Michael; Orf, Stefan; Riehm, Benedikt; Darriba, Diego; Stamatakis, Alexandros

2016-03-24

In the context of a master level programming practical at the computer science department of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, we developed and make available an open-source code for testing all 203 possible nucleotide substitution models in the Maximum Likelihood (ML) setting under the common Akaike, corrected Akaike, and Bayesian information criteria. We address the question if model selection matters topologically, that is, if conducting ML inferences under the optimal, instead of a standard General Time Reversible model, yields different tree topologies. We also assess, to which degree models selected and trees inferred under the three standard criteria (AIC, AICc, BIC) differ. Finally, we assess if the definition of the sample size (#sites versus #sites × #taxa) yields different models and, as a consequence, different tree topologies. We find that, all three factors (by order of impact: nucleotide model selection, information criterion used, sample size definition) can yield topologically substantially different final tree topologies (topological difference exceeding 10 %) for approximately 5 % of the tree inferences conducted on the 39 empirical datasets used in our study. We find that, using the best-fit nucleotide substitution model may change the final ML tree topology compared to an inference under a default GTR model. The effect is less pronounced when comparing distinct information criteria. Nonetheless, in some cases we did obtain substantial topological differences.

Parameter Estimation of Multiple Frequency-Hopping Signals with Two Sensors

PubMed Central

Pan, Jin; Ma, Boyuan

2018-01-01

This paper essentially focuses on parameter estimation of multiple wideband emitting sources with time-varying frequencies, such as two-dimensional (2-D) direction of arrival (DOA) and signal sorting, with a low-cost circular synthetic array (CSA) consisting of only two rotating sensors. Our basic idea is to decompose the received data, which is a superimposition of phase measurements from multiple sources into separated groups and separately estimate the DOA associated with each source. Motivated by joint parameter estimation, we propose to adopt the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm in this paper; our method involves two steps, namely, the expectation-step (E-step) and the maximization (M-step). In the E-step, the correspondence of each signal with its emitting source is found. Then, in the M-step, the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimates of the DOA parameters are obtained. These two steps are iteratively and alternatively executed to jointly determine the DOAs and sort multiple signals. Closed-form DOA estimation formulae are developed by ML estimation based on phase data, which also realize an optimal estimation. Directional ambiguity is also addressed by another ML estimation method based on received complex responses. The Cramer-Rao lower bound is derived for understanding the estimation accuracy and performance comparison. The verification of the proposed method is demonstrated with simulations. PMID:29617323

A Recommended Procedure for Estimating the Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameter of a Simple Power Law With Applications to Detector Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, L. W.

2001-01-01

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha-1 is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV. Two procedures for estimating alpha-1 the method of moments and maximum likelihood (ML), are developed and their statistical performance compared. It is concluded that the ML procedure attains the most desirable statistical properties and is hence the recommended statistical estimation procedure for estimating alpha-1. The ML procedure is then generalized for application to a set of real cosmic-ray data and thereby makes this approach applicable to existing cosmic-ray data sets. Several other important results, such as the relationship between collecting power and detector energy resolution, as well as inclusion of a non-Gaussian detector response function, are presented. These results have many practical benefits in the design phase of a cosmic-ray detector as they permit instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of one of the science objectives. This is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

The influence of fatness on the likelihood of early-winter pregnancy in muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus).

PubMed

Adamczewski, J Z; Fargey, P J; Laarveld, B; Gunn, A; Flood, P F

1998-09-01

Among wild ruminants, muskoxen have an exceptional ability to fatten, but their pregnancy rates are variable and often low. To test whether the likelihood of pregnancy in muskoxen is associated with exceptionally good body condition, we used logistic regression analysis with data from 32 pregnant and 18 nonpregnant muskoxen > or = 1.5 yr of age shot in November (1989 to 1992) on Victoria Island in Arctic Canada. We assayed their serum for insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1). All fatness and mass measures were positively related to the likelihood of pregnancy (P < 0.001), with the strongest associations for estimated total fat mass (80% of outcomes predicted correctly) and kidney fat mass (77%), and weaker models for body mass. Pregnancy was less likely to occur in lactating females than in nonlactating ones (P = 0.03). Although IGF-1 concentrations were higher (P = 0.001) in nonlactating females than in lactating ones (28.7 +/- 1.7 vs. 22.5 ng/ml), no association with pregnancy was detected (P = 0.57). Fatness associated with a 50% probability of pregnancy in muskoxen (22% of ingesta-free body mass or 32 kg fat in females > 3.5 yr old) is much higher than in caribou and somewhat higher than in cattle, and this may partly account for the low calving rates often observed in this species.

MultiPhyl: a high-throughput phylogenomics webserver using distributed computing

PubMed Central

Keane, Thomas M.; Naughton, Thomas J.; McInerney, James O.

2007-01-01

With the number of fully sequenced genomes increasing steadily, there is greater interest in performing large-scale phylogenomic analyses from large numbers of individual gene families. Maximum likelihood (ML) has been shown repeatedly to be one of the most accurate methods for phylogenetic construction. Recently, there have been a number of algorithmic improvements in maximum-likelihood-based tree search methods. However, it can still take a long time to analyse the evolutionary history of many gene families using a single computer. Distributed computing refers to a method of combining the computing power of multiple computers in order to perform some larger overall calculation. In this article, we present the first high-throughput implementation of a distributed phylogenetics platform, MultiPhyl, capable of using the idle computational resources of many heterogeneous non-dedicated machines to form a phylogenetics supercomputer. MultiPhyl allows a user to upload hundreds or thousands of amino acid or nucleotide alignments simultaneously and perform computationally intensive tasks such as model selection, tree searching and bootstrapping of each of the alignments using many desktop machines. The program implements a set of 88 amino acid models and 56 nucleotide maximum likelihood models and a variety of statistical methods for choosing between alternative models. A MultiPhyl webserver is available for public use at: http://www.cs.nuim.ie/distributed/multiphyl.php. PMID:17553837

Simultaneous measurement of lipid and aqueous layers of tear film using optical coherence tomography and statistical decision theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jinxin; Clarkson, Eric; Kupinski, Matthew; Rolland, Jannick P.

2014-03-01

The prevalence of Dry Eye Disease (DED) in the USA is approximately 40 million in aging adults with about $3.8 billion economic burden. However, a comprehensive understanding of tear film dynamics, which is the prerequisite to advance the management of DED, is yet to be realized. To extend our understanding of tear film dynamics, we investigate the simultaneous estimation of the lipid and aqueous layers thicknesses with the combination of optical coherence tomography (OCT) and statistical decision theory. In specific, we develop a mathematical model for Fourier-domain OCT where we take into account the different statistical processes associated with the imaging chain. We formulate the first-order and second-order statistical quantities of the output of the OCT system, which can generate some simulated OCT spectra. A tear film model, which includes a lipid and aqueous layer on top of a rough corneal surface, is the object being imaged. Then we further implement a Maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator to interpret the simulated OCT data to estimate the thicknesses of both layers of the tear film. Results show that an axial resolution of 1 μm allows estimates down to nanometers scale. We use the root mean square error of the estimates as a metric to evaluate the system parameters, such as the tradeoff between the imaging speed and the precision of estimation. This framework further provides the theoretical basics to optimize the imaging setup for a specific thickness estimation task.

Novel fabrication method for zirconia restorations: bonding strength of machinable ceramic to zirconia with resin cements.

PubMed

Kuriyama, Soichi; Terui, Yuichi; Higuchi, Daisuke; Goto, Daisuke; Hotta, Yasuhiro; Manabe, Atsufumi; Miyazaki, Takashi

2011-01-01

A novel method was developed to fabricate all-ceramic restorations which comprised CAD/CAM-fabricated machinable ceramic bonded to CAD/CAM-fabricated zirconia framework using resin cement. The feasibility of this fabrication method was assessed in this study by investigating the bonding strength of a machinable ceramic to zirconia. A machinable ceramic was bonded to a zirconia plate using three kinds of resin cements: ResiCem (RE), Panavia (PA), and Multilink (ML). Conventional porcelain-fused-to-zirconia specimens were also prepared to serve as control. Shear bond strength test (SBT) and Schwickerath crack initiation test (SCT) were carried out. SBT revealed that PA (40.42 MPa) yielded a significantly higher bonding strength than RE (28.01 MPa) and ML (18.89 MPa). SCT revealed that the bonding strengths of test groups using resin cement were significantly higher than those of Control. Notably, the bonding strengths of RE and ML were above 25 MPa even after 10,000 times of thermal cycling -adequately meeting the ISO 9693 standard for metal-ceramic restorations. These results affirmed the feasibility of the novel fabrication method, in that a CAD/CAM-fabricated machinable ceramic is bonded to a CAD/CAM-fabricated zirconia framework using a resin cement.

Framework for adaptive multiscale analysis of nonhomogeneous point processes.

PubMed

Helgason, Hannes; Bartroff, Jay; Abry, Patrice

2011-01-01

We develop the methodology for hypothesis testing and model selection in nonhomogeneous Poisson processes, with an eye toward the application of modeling and variability detection in heart beat data. Modeling the process' non-constant rate function using templates of simple basis functions, we develop the generalized likelihood ratio statistic for a given template and a multiple testing scheme to model-select from a family of templates. A dynamic programming algorithm inspired by network flows is used to compute the maximum likelihood template in a multiscale manner. In a numerical example, the proposed procedure is nearly as powerful as the super-optimal procedures that know the true template size and true partition, respectively. Extensions to general history-dependent point processes is discussed.

Sparse representation and dictionary learning penalized image reconstruction for positron emission tomography.

PubMed

Chen, Shuhang; Liu, Huafeng; Shi, Pengcheng; Chen, Yunmei

2015-01-21

Accurate and robust reconstruction of the radioactivity concentration is of great importance in positron emission tomography (PET) imaging. Given the Poisson nature of photo-counting measurements, we present a reconstruction framework that integrates sparsity penalty on a dictionary into a maximum likelihood estimator. Patch-sparsity on a dictionary provides the regularization for our effort, and iterative procedures are used to solve the maximum likelihood function formulated on Poisson statistics. Specifically, in our formulation, a dictionary could be trained on CT images, to provide intrinsic anatomical structures for the reconstructed images, or adaptively learned from the noisy measurements of PET. Accuracy of the strategy with very promising application results from Monte-Carlo simulations, and real data are demonstrated.

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray

1990-01-01

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. Likely and by default are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as possibility and necessity. To model these four forms probabilistically, a qualitative default probabilistic (QDP) logic and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequent results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

Industry Perspective of Pediatric Drug Development in the United States: Involvement of the European Union Countries.

PubMed

Onishi, Taku; Tsukamoto, Katsura; Matsumaru, Naoki; Waki, Takashi

2018-01-01

Efforts to promote the development of pediatric pharmacotherapy include regulatory frameworks and close collaboration between the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency. We characterized the current status of pediatric clinical trials conducted in the United States by the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on the involvement of the European Union member countries, to clarify the industry perspective. Data on US pediatric clinical trials were obtained from ClinicalTrials.gov . Binary regression analysis was performed to identify what factors influence the likelihood of involvement of European Union countries. A total of 633 US pediatric clinical trials that met inclusion criteria were extracted and surveyed. Of these, 206 (32.5%) involved a European Union country site(s). The results of binary regression analysis indicated that attribution of industry, phase, disease area, and age of pediatric participants influenced the likelihood of the involvement of European Union countries in US pediatric clinical trials. Relatively complicated or large pediatric clinical trials, such as phase II and III trials and those that included a broad age range of participants, had a significantly greater likelihood of the involvement of European Union countries ( P < .05). Our results suggest that (1) the pharmaceutical industry utilizes regulatory frameworks in making business decisions regarding pediatric clinical trials, (2) disease area affects the involvement of European Union countries, and (3) feasibility of clinical trials is mainly concerned by pharmaceutical industry for pediatric drug development. Additional incentives for high marketability may further motivate pharmaceutical industry to develop pediatric drugs.

Toward a Conceptual Framework for Blending Social and Biophysical Attributes in Conservation Planning: A Case-Study of Privately-Conserved Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquini, Lorena; Twyman, Chasca; Wainwright, John

2010-11-01

There has been increasing recognition within systematic conservation planning of the need to include social data alongside biophysical assessments. However, in the approaches to identify potential conservation sites, there remains much room for improvement in the treatment of social data. In particular, few rigorous methods to account for the diversity of less-easily quantifiable social attributes that influence the implementation success of conservation sites (such as willingness to conserve) have been developed. We use a case-study analysis of private conservation areas within the Little Karoo, South Africa, as a practical example of the importance of incorporating social data into the process of selecting potential conservation sites to improve their implementation likelihood. We draw on extensive data on the social attributes of our case study obtained from a combination of survey questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. We discuss the need to determine the social attributes that are important for achieving the chosen implementation strategy by offering four tested examples of important social attributes in the Little Karoo: the willingness of landowners to take part in a stewardship arrangement, their willingness to conserve, their capacity to conserve, and the social capital among private conservation area owners. We then discuss the process of using an implementation likelihood ratio (derived from a combined measure of the social attributes) to assist the choice of potential conservation sites. We conclude by summarizing our discussion into a simple conceptual framework for identifying biophysically-valuable sites which possess a high likelihood that the desired implementation strategy will be realized on them.

Interfacial properties at the organic-metal interface probed using quantum well states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Meng-Kai; Nakayama, Yasuo; Wang, Chin-Yung; Hsu, Jer-Chia; Pan, Chih-Hao; Machida, Shin-ichi; Pi, Tun-Wen; Ishii, Hisao; Tang, S.-J.

2012-10-01

Using angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, we investigated the interfacial properties between the long-chain normal-alkane molecule n-CH3(CH2)42CH3 [tetratetracontane (TTC)] and uniform Ag films using the Ag quantum well states. The entire quantum well state energy band dispersions were observed to shift toward the Fermi level with increasing adsorption coverage of TTC up to 1 monolayer (ML). However, the energy shifts upon deposition of 1 ML of TTC are approximately inversely dependent on the Ag film thickness, indicating a quantum-size effect. In the framework of the pushback and image-force models, we applied the Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization rule with the modified Coulomb image potential for the phase shift at the TTC/Ag interface to extract the dielectric constant for 1 ML of TTC.

A Bayesian Alternative for Multi-objective Ecohydrological Model Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Ajami, H.

2015-12-01

Process-based ecohydrological models combine the study of hydrological, physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, which are usually more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological framework. In our study, a formal Bayesian approach is implemented in an ecohydrological model which combines a hydrological model (HyMOD) and a dynamic vegetation model (DVM). Simulations focused on one objective likelihood (Streamflow/LAI) and multi-objective likelihoods (Streamflow and LAI) with different weights are compared. Uniform, weakly informative and strongly informative prior distributions are used in different simulations. The Kullback-leibler divergence (KLD) is used to measure the dis(similarity) between different priors and corresponding posterior distributions to examine the parameter sensitivity. Results show that different prior distributions can strongly influence posterior distributions for parameters, especially when the available data is limited or parameters are insensitive to the available data. We demonstrate differences in optimized parameters and uncertainty limits in different cases based on multi-objective likelihoods vs. single objective likelihoods. We also demonstrate the importance of appropriately defining the weights of objectives in multi-objective calibration according to different data types.

Diagnostic value of soluble B7-H4 and carcinoembryonic antigen in distinguishing malignant from benign pleural effusion.

PubMed

Jing, Xiaogang; Wei, Fei; Li, Jing; Dai, Lingling; Wang, Xi; Jia, Liuqun; Wang, Huan; An, Lin; Yang, Yuanjian; Zhang, Guojun; Cheng, Zhe

2018-03-01

To explore the diagnostic value of joint detection of soluble B7-H4 (sB7-H4) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) in identifying malignant pleural effusion (MPE) from benign pleural effusion (BPE). A total of 97 patients with pleural effusion specimens were enrolled from The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between June 2014 and December 2015. All cases were categorized into malignant pleural effusion group (n = 55) and benign pleural effusion group (n = 42) according to etiologies. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was applied to examine the levels of sB7-H4 in pleural effusion and meanwhile CEA concentrations were detected by electro-chemiluminescence immunoassays. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was established to assess the diagnostic value of sB7-H4 and CEA in pleural effusion. The correlation between sB7-H4 and CEA levels was analyzed by Pearson's product-moment. The concentrations of sB7-H4 and CEA in MPE exhibited obviously higher than those of BPE ([60.08 ± 35.04] vs. [27.26 ± 9.55] ng/ml, P = .000; [41.49 ± 37.16] vs. [2.41 ± 0.94] ng/ml, P = .000). The AUC area under ROC curve of sB7-H4 and CEA was 0.884 and 0.954, respectively. Two cutoff values by ROC curve analysis of sB7-H4 36.5 ng/ml and CEA 4.18 ng/ml were obtained, with a corresponding sensitivity (81.82%, 87.28%), specificity (90.48%, 95.24%), accuracy (85.57%, 90.72%), positive predictive value (PPV) (91.84%, 96.0%), negative predictive value (NPV) (79.17%, 85.11%), positive likelihood ratio (PLR) (8.614, 18.327), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) (0.201, 0.134). When sB7-H4 and CEA were combined to detect pleural effusion, it obtained a higher sensitivity 90.91% and specificity 97.62%. Furthermore, correlation analysis result showed that the level of sB7-H4 was correlated with CEA level (r = .770, P = .000). sB7-H4 was a potentially valuable tumor marker in the differentiation between BPE and MPE. The combined detection of sB7-H4 and CEA could improve the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for MPE. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implementation of a Goal-Based Systems Engineering Process Using the Systems Modeling Language (SysML)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Jonathan D.; Breckenridge, Jonathan T.; Johnson, Stephen B.

2013-01-01

Building upon the purpose, theoretical approach, and use of a Goal-Function Tree (GFT) being presented by Dr. Stephen B. Johnson, described in a related Infotech 2013 ISHM abstract titled "Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management", this paper will describe the core framework used to implement the GFTbased systems engineering process using the Systems Modeling Language (SysML). These two papers are ideally accepted and presented together in the same Infotech session. Statement of problem: SysML, as a tool, is currently not capable of implementing the theoretical approach described within the "Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management" paper cited above. More generally, SysML's current capabilities to model functional decompositions in the rigorous manner required in the GFT approach are limited. The GFT is a new Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to the development of goals and requirements, functions, and its linkage to design. As a growing standard for systems engineering, it is important to develop methods to implement GFT in SysML. Proposed Method of Solution: Many of the central concepts of the SysML language are needed to implement a GFT for large complex systems. In the implementation of those central concepts, the following will be described in detail: changes to the nominal SysML process, model view definitions and examples, diagram definitions and examples, and detailed SysML construct and stereotype definitions.

Bayesian Parameter Inference and Model Selection by Population Annealing in Systems Biology

PubMed Central

Murakami, Yohei

2014-01-01

Parameter inference and model selection are very important for mathematical modeling in systems biology. Bayesian statistics can be used to conduct both parameter inference and model selection. Especially, the framework named approximate Bayesian computation is often used for parameter inference and model selection in systems biology. However, Monte Carlo methods needs to be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions. In addition, the posterior distributions of parameters are sometimes almost uniform or very similar to their prior distributions. In such cases, it is difficult to choose one specific value of parameter with high credibility as the representative value of the distribution. To overcome the problems, we introduced one of the population Monte Carlo algorithms, population annealing. Although population annealing is usually used in statistical mechanics, we showed that population annealing can be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions in the approximate Bayesian computation framework. To deal with un-identifiability of the representative values of parameters, we proposed to run the simulations with the parameter ensemble sampled from the posterior distribution, named “posterior parameter ensemble”. We showed that population annealing is an efficient and convenient algorithm to generate posterior parameter ensemble. We also showed that the simulations with the posterior parameter ensemble can, not only reproduce the data used for parameter inference, but also capture and predict the data which was not used for parameter inference. Lastly, we introduced the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework for Bayesian model selection. We showed that population annealing enables us to compute the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework and conduct model selection depending on the Bayes factor. PMID:25089832

Hell Is Other People? Gender and Interactions with Strangers in the Workplace Influence a Person’s Risk of Depression

PubMed Central

Fischer, Sebastian; Wiemer, Anita; Diedrich, Laura; Moock, Jörn; Rössler, Wulf

2014-01-01

We suggest that interactions with strangers at work influence the likelihood of depressive disorders, as they serve as an environmental stressor, which are a necessary condition for the onset of depression according to diathesis-stress models of depression. We examined a large dataset (N = 76,563 in K = 196 occupations) from the German pension insurance program and the Occupational Information Network dataset on occupational characteristics. We used a multilevel framework with individuals and occupations as levels of analysis. We found that occupational environments influence employees’ risks of depression. In line with the quotation that ‘hell is other people’ frequent conflictual contacts were related to greater likelihoods of depression in both males and females (OR = 1.14, p<.05). However, interactions with the public were related to greater likelihoods of depression for males but lower likelihoods of depression for females (ORintercation = 1.21, p<.01). We theorize that some occupations may involve interpersonal experiences with negative emotional tones that make functional coping difficult and increase the risk of depression. In other occupations, these experiences have neutral tones and allow for functional coping strategies. Functional strategies are more often found in women than in men. PMID:25075855

Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to mixtures.

PubMed

Slooten, Klaas-Jan; Egeland, Thore

2016-01-01

The statistical evidence obtained from mixed DNA profiles can be summarised in several ways in forensic casework including the likelihood ratio (LR) and the Random Man Not Excluded (RMNE) probability. The literature has seen a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of likelihood ratios and exclusion probabilities, and part of our aim is to bring some clarification to this debate. In a previous paper, we proved that there is a general mathematical relationship between these statistics: RMNE can be expressed as a certain average of the LR, implying that the expected value of the LR, when applied to an actual contributor to the mixture, is at least equal to the inverse of the RMNE. While the mentioned paper presented applications for kinship problems, the current paper demonstrates the relevance for mixture cases, and for this purpose, we prove some new general properties. We also demonstrate how to use the distribution of the likelihood ratio for donors of a mixture, to obtain estimates for exceedance probabilities of the LR for non-donors, of which the RMNE is a special case corresponding to L R>0. In order to derive these results, we need to view the likelihood ratio as a random variable. In this paper, we describe how such a randomization can be achieved. The RMNE is usually invoked only for mixtures without dropout. In mixtures, artefacts like dropout and drop-in are commonly encountered and we address this situation too, illustrating our results with a basic but widely implemented model, a so-called binary model. The precise definitions, modelling and interpretation of the required concepts of dropout and drop-in are not entirely obvious, and we attempt to clarify them here in a general likelihood framework for a binary model.

CytometryML: a data standard which has been designed to interface with other standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leif, Robert C.

2007-02-01

Because of the differences in the requirements, needs, and past histories including existing standards of the creating organizations, a single encompassing cytology-pathology standard will not, in the near future, replace the multiple existing or under development standards. Except for DICOM and FCS, these standardization efforts are all based on XML. CytometryML is a collection of XML schemas, which are based on the Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) and Flow Cytometry Standard (FCS) datatypes. The CytometryML schemas contain attributes that link them to the DICOM standard and FCS. Interoperability with DICOM has been facilitated by, wherever reasonable, limiting the difference between CytometryML and the previous standards to syntax. In order to permit the Resource Description Framework, RDF, to reference the CytometryML datatypes, id attributes have been added to many CytometryML elements. The Laboratory Digital Imaging Project (LDIP) Data Exchange Specification and the Flowcyt standards development effort employ RDF syntax. Documentation from DICOM has been reused in CytometryML. The unity of analytical cytology was demonstrated by deriving a microscope type and a flow cytometer type from a generic cytometry instrument type. The feasibility of incorporating the Flowcyt gating schemas into CytometryML has been demonstrated. CytometryML is being extended to include many of the new DICOM Working Group 26 datatypes, which describe patients, specimens, and analytes. In situations where multiple standards are being created, interoperability can be facilitated by employing datatypes based on a common set of semantics and building in links to standards that employ different syntax.

A Review of Mechanoluminescence in Inorganic Solids: Compounds, Mechanisms, Models and Applications

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Mechanoluminescence (ML) is the non-thermal emission of light as a response to mechanical stimuli on a solid material. While this phenomenon has been observed for a long time when breaking certain materials, it is now being extensively explored, especially since the discovery of non-destructive ML upon elastic deformation. A great number of materials have already been identified as mechanoluminescent, but novel ones with colour tunability and improved sensitivity are still urgently needed. The physical origin of the phenomenon, which mainly involves the release of trapped carriers at defects with the help of stress, still remains unclear. This in turn hinders a deeper research, either theoretically or application oriented. In this review paper, we have tabulated the known ML compounds according to their structure prototypes based on the connectivity of anion polyhedra, highlighting structural features, such as framework distortion, layered structure, elastic anisotropy and microstructures, which are very relevant to the ML process. We then review the various proposed mechanisms and corresponding mathematical models. We comment on their contribution to a clearer understanding of the ML phenomenon and on the derived guidelines for improving properties of ML phosphors. Proven and potential applications of ML in various fields, such as stress field sensing, light sources, and sensing electric (magnetic) fields, are summarized. Finally, we point out the challenges and future directions in this active and emerging field of luminescence research. PMID:29570650

Integration of M&S (Modeling and Simulation), Software Design and DoDAF (Department of Defense Architecture Framework (RT 24)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-09

between BPMN , SysML, and Arena ........................................... 16 Capabilities, Activities, Resources, Performers...Proof of Concept ................................................................ 22 BPMN 2.0 XML to Arena Converter...21 Figure 5: BPMN 2.0 XML StartEvent (Excerpt

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Bryan A.; Rougier, Esteban; O’Malley, Daniel

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path tomore » failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.« less

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

DOE PAGES

Moore, Bryan A.; Rougier, Esteban; O’Malley, Daniel; ...

2018-02-22

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path tomore » failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.« less

Higher level phylogeny and the first divergence time estimation of Heteroptera (Insecta: Hemiptera) based on multiple genes.

PubMed

Li, Min; Tian, Ying; Zhao, Ying; Bu, Wenjun

2012-01-01

Heteroptera, or true bugs, are the largest, morphologically diverse and economically important group of insects with incomplete metamorphosis. However, the phylogenetic relationships within Heteroptera are still in dispute and most of the previous studies were based on morphological characters or with single gene (partial or whole 18S rDNA). Besides, so far, divergence time estimates for Heteroptera totally rely on the fossil record, while no studies have been performed on molecular divergence rates. Here, for the first time, we used maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) with multiple genes (18S rDNA, 28S rDNA, 16S rDNA and COI) to estimate phylogenetic relationships among the infraorders, and meanwhile, the Penalized Likelihood (r8s) and Bayesian (BEAST) molecular dating methods were employed to estimate divergence time of higher taxa of this suborder. Major results of the present study included: Nepomorpha was placed as the most basal clade in all six trees (MP trees, ML trees and Bayesian trees of nuclear gene data and four-gene combined data, respectively) with full support values. The sister-group relationship of Cimicomorpha and Pentatomomorpha was also strongly supported. Nepomorpha originated in early Triassic and the other six infraorders originated in a very short period of time in middle Triassic. Cimicomorpha and Pentatomomorpha underwent a radiation at family level in Cretaceous, paralleling the proliferation of the flowering plants. Our results indicated that the higher-group radiations within hemimetabolous Heteroptera were simultaneously with those of holometabolous Coleoptera and Diptera which took place in the Triassic. While the aquatic habitat was colonized by Nepomorpha already in the Triassic, the Gerromorpha independently adapted to the semi-aquatic habitat in the Early Jurassic.

Reconstructing the evolutionary history of the Lorisidae using morphological, molecular, and geological data.

PubMed

Masters, J C; Anthony, N M; de Wit, M J; Mitchell, A

2005-08-01

Major aspects of lorisid phylogeny and systematics remain unresolved, despite several studies (involving morphology, histology, karyology, immunology, and DNA sequencing) aimed at elucidating them. Our study is the first to investigate the evolution of this enigmatic group using molecular and morphological data for all four well-established genera: Arctocebus, Loris, Nycticebus, and Perodicticus. Data sets consisting of 386 bp of 12S rRNA, 535 bp of 16S rRNA, and 36 craniodental characters were analyzed separately and in combination, using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood. Outgroups, consisting of two galagid taxa (Otolemur and Galagoides) and a lemuroid (Microcebus), were also varied. The morphological data set yielded a paraphyletic lorisid clade with the robust Nycticebus and Perodicticus grouped as sister taxa, and the galagids allied with Arctocebus. All molecular analyses maximum parsimony (MP) or maximum likelihood (ML) which included Microcebus as an outgroup rendered a paraphyletic lorisid clade, with one exception: the 12S + 16S data set analyzed with ML. The position of the galagids in these paraphyletic topologies was inconsistent, however, and bootstrap values were low. Exclusion of Microcebus generated a monophyletic Lorisidae with Asian and African subclades; bootstrap values for all three clades in the total evidence tree were over 90%. We estimated mean genetic distances for lemuroids vs. lorisoids, lorisids vs. galagids, and Asian vs. African lorisids as a guide to relative divergence times. We present information regarding a temporary land bridge that linked the two now widely separated regions inhabited by lorisids that may explain their distribution. Finally, we make taxonomic recommendations based on our results. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A machine learning approach using EEG data to predict response to SSRI treatment for major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Khodayari-Rostamabad, Ahmad; Reilly, James P; Hasey, Gary M; de Bruin, Hubert; Maccrimmon, Duncan J

2013-10-01

The problem of identifying, in advance, the most effective treatment agent for various psychiatric conditions remains an elusive goal. To address this challenge, we investigate the performance of the proposed machine learning (ML) methodology (based on the pre-treatment electroencephalogram (EEG)) for prediction of response to treatment with a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) medication in subjects suffering from major depressive disorder (MDD). A relatively small number of most discriminating features are selected from a large group of candidate features extracted from the subject's pre-treatment EEG, using a machine learning procedure for feature selection. The selected features are fed into a classifier, which was realized as a mixture of factor analysis (MFA) model, whose output is the predicted response in the form of a likelihood value. This likelihood indicates the extent to which the subject belongs to the responder vs. non-responder classes. The overall method was evaluated using a "leave-n-out" randomized permutation cross-validation procedure. A list of discriminating EEG biomarkers (features) was found. The specificity of the proposed method is 80.9% while sensitivity is 94.9%, for an overall prediction accuracy of 87.9%. There is a 98.76% confidence that the estimated prediction rate is within the interval [75%, 100%]. These results indicate that the proposed ML method holds considerable promise in predicting the efficacy of SSRI antidepressant therapy for MDD, based on a simple and cost-effective pre-treatment EEG. The proposed approach offers the potential to improve the treatment of major depression and to reduce health care costs. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogeny of the cycads based on multiple single-copy nuclear genes: congruence of concatenated parsimony, likelihood and species tree inference methods.

PubMed

Salas-Leiva, Dayana E; Meerow, Alan W; Calonje, Michael; Griffith, M Patrick; Francisco-Ortega, Javier; Nakamura, Kyoko; Stevenson, Dennis W; Lewis, Carl E; Namoff, Sandra

2013-11-01

Despite a recent new classification, a stable phylogeny for the cycads has been elusive, particularly regarding resolution of Bowenia, Stangeria and Dioon. In this study, five single-copy nuclear genes (SCNGs) are applied to the phylogeny of the order Cycadales. The specific aim is to evaluate several gene tree-species tree reconciliation approaches for developing an accurate phylogeny of the order, to contrast them with concatenated parsimony analysis and to resolve the erstwhile problematic phylogenetic position of these three genera. DNA sequences of five SCNGs were obtained for 20 cycad species representing all ten genera of Cycadales. These were analysed with parsimony, maximum likelihood (ML) and three Bayesian methods of gene tree-species tree reconciliation, using Cycas as the outgroup. A calibrated date estimation was developed with Bayesian methods, and biogeographic analysis was also conducted. Concatenated parsimony, ML and three species tree inference methods resolve exactly the same tree topology with high support at most nodes. Dioon and Bowenia are the first and second branches of Cycadales after Cycas, respectively, followed by an encephalartoid clade (Macrozamia-Lepidozamia-Encephalartos), which is sister to a zamioid clade, of which Ceratozamia is the first branch, and in which Stangeria is sister to Microcycas and Zamia. A single, well-supported phylogenetic hypothesis of the generic relationships of the Cycadales is presented. However, massive extinction events inferred from the fossil record that eliminated broader ancestral distributions within Zamiaceae compromise accurate optimization of ancestral biogeographical areas for that hypothesis. While major lineages of Cycadales are ancient, crown ages of all modern genera are no older than 12 million years, supporting a recent hypothesis of mostly Miocene radiations. This phylogeny can contribute to an accurate infrafamilial classification of Zamiaceae.

Plastid phylogenomics of the cool-season grass subfamily: clarification of relationships among early-diverging tribes

PubMed Central

Saarela, Jeffery M.; Wysocki, William P.; Barrett, Craig F.; Soreng, Robert J.; Davis, Jerrold I.; Clark, Lynn G.; Kelchner, Scot A.; Pires, J. Chris; Edger, Patrick P.; Mayfield, Dustin R.; Duvall, Melvin R.

2015-01-01

Whole plastid genomes are being sequenced rapidly from across the green plant tree of life, and phylogenetic analyses of these are increasing resolution and support for relationships that have varied among or been unresolved in earlier single- and multi-gene studies. Pooideae, the cool-season grass lineage, is the largest of the 12 grass subfamilies and includes important temperate cereals, turf grasses and forage species. Although numerous studies of the phylogeny of the subfamily have been undertaken, relationships among some ‘early-diverging’ tribes conflict among studies, and some relationships among subtribes of Poeae have not yet been resolved. To address these issues, we newly sequenced 25 whole plastomes, which showed rearrangements typical of Poaceae. These plastomes represent 9 tribes and 11 subtribes of Pooideae, and were analysed with 20 existing plastomes for the subfamily. Maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian inference (BI) robustly resolve most deep relationships in the subfamily. Complete plastome data provide increased nodal support compared with protein-coding data alone at nodes that are not maximally supported. Following the divergence of Brachyelytrum, Phaenospermateae, Brylkinieae–Meliceae and Ampelodesmeae–Stipeae are the successive sister groups of the rest of the subfamily. Ampelodesmeae are nested within Stipeae in the plastome trees, consistent with its hybrid origin between a phaenospermatoid and a stipoid grass (the maternal parent). The core Pooideae are strongly supported and include Brachypodieae, a Bromeae–Triticeae clade and Poeae. Within Poeae, a novel sister group relationship between Phalaridinae and Torreyochloinae is found, and the relative branching order of this clade and Aveninae, with respect to an Agrostidinae–Brizinae clade, are discordant between MP and ML/BI trees. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses strongly support Airinae and Holcinae as the successive sister groups of a Dactylidinae–Loliinae clade. PMID:25940204

Higher Level Phylogeny and the First Divergence Time Estimation of Heteroptera (Insecta: Hemiptera) Based on Multiple Genes

PubMed Central

Zhao, Ying; Bu, Wenjun

2012-01-01

Heteroptera, or true bugs, are the largest, morphologically diverse and economically important group of insects with incomplete metamorphosis. However, the phylogenetic relationships within Heteroptera are still in dispute and most of the previous studies were based on morphological characters or with single gene (partial or whole 18S rDNA). Besides, so far, divergence time estimates for Heteroptera totally rely on the fossil record, while no studies have been performed on molecular divergence rates. Here, for the first time, we used maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) with multiple genes (18S rDNA, 28S rDNA, 16S rDNA and COI) to estimate phylogenetic relationships among the infraorders, and meanwhile, the Penalized Likelihood (r8s) and Bayesian (BEAST) molecular dating methods were employed to estimate divergence time of higher taxa of this suborder. Major results of the present study included: Nepomorpha was placed as the most basal clade in all six trees (MP trees, ML trees and Bayesian trees of nuclear gene data and four-gene combined data, respectively) with full support values. The sister-group relationship of Cimicomorpha and Pentatomomorpha was also strongly supported. Nepomorpha originated in early Triassic and the other six infraorders originated in a very short period of time in middle Triassic. Cimicomorpha and Pentatomomorpha underwent a radiation at family level in Cretaceous, paralleling the proliferation of the flowering plants. Our results indicated that the higher-group radiations within hemimetabolous Heteroptera were simultaneously with those of holometabolous Coleoptera and Diptera which took place in the Triassic. While the aquatic habitat was colonized by Nepomorpha already in the Triassic, the Gerromorpha independently adapted to the semi-aquatic habitat in the Early Jurassic. PMID:22384163

Estimation of Contextual Effects through Nonlinear Multilevel Latent Variable Modeling with a Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Ji Seung; Cai, Li

2014-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to improve estimation efficiency in obtaining maximum marginal likelihood estimates of contextual effects in the framework of nonlinear multilevel latent variable model by adopting the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro algorithm (MH-RM). Results indicate that the MH-RM algorithm can produce estimates and standard…

Media Literacy and Attitude Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Media Literacy Training on Children's Responses to Persuasive Messages within the ELM.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yates, Bradford L.

This study adds to the small but growing body of literature that examines the effectiveness of media literacy training on children's responses to persuasive messages. Within the framework of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion, this research investigates whether media literacy training is a moderating variable in the persuasion…

A three domain covariance framework for EEG/MEG data.

PubMed

Roś, Beata P; Bijma, Fetsje; de Gunst, Mathisca C M; de Munck, Jan C

2015-10-01

In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of single subject EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. Our covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, like in combined EEG-fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated. We use a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. We apply our method to real EEG and MEG data sets. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inferring social ties from geographic coincidences.

PubMed

Crandall, David J; Backstrom, Lars; Cosley, Dan; Suri, Siddharth; Huttenlocher, Daniel; Kleinberg, Jon

2010-12-28

We investigate the extent to which social ties between people can be inferred from co-occurrence in time and space: Given that two people have been in approximately the same geographic locale at approximately the same time, on multiple occasions, how likely are they to know each other? Furthermore, how does this likelihood depend on the spatial and temporal proximity of the co-occurrences? Such issues arise in data originating in both online and offline domains as well as settings that capture interfaces between online and offline behavior. Here we develop a framework for quantifying the answers to such questions, and we apply this framework to publicly available data from a social media site, finding that even a very small number of co-occurrences can result in a high empirical likelihood of a social tie. We then present probabilistic models showing how such large probabilities can arise from a natural model of proximity and co-occurrence in the presence of social ties. In addition to providing a method for establishing some of the first quantifiable estimates of these measures, our findings have potential privacy implications, particularly for the ways in which social structures can be inferred from public online records that capture individuals' physical locations over time.

Evolution at the tips: Asclepias phylogenomics and new perspectives on leaf surfaces.

PubMed

Fishbein, Mark; Straub, Shannon C K; Boutte, Julien; Hansen, Kimberly; Cronn, Richard C; Liston, Aaron

2018-03-01

Leaf surface traits, such as trichome density and wax production, mediate important ecological processes such as anti-herbivory defense and water-use efficiency. We present a phylogenetic analysis of Asclepias plastomes as a framework for analyzing the evolution of trichome density and presence of epicuticular waxes. We produced a maximum-likelihood phylogeny using plastomes of 103 species of Asclepias. We reconstructed ancestral states and used model comparisons in a likelihood framework to analyze character evolution across Asclepias. We resolved the backbone of Asclepias, placing the Sonoran Desert clade and Incarnatae clade as successive sisters to the remaining species. We present novel findings about leaf surface evolution of Asclepias-the ancestor is reconstructed as waxless and sparsely hairy, a macroevolutionary optimal trichome density is supported, and the rate of evolution of trichome density has accelerated. Increased sampling and selection of best-fitting models of evolution provide more resolved and robust estimates of phylogeny and character evolution than obtained in previous studies. Evolutionary inferences are more sensitive to character coding than model selection. © 2018 The Authors. American Journal of Botany is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the Botanical Society of America.

Testing typicality in multiverse cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azhar, Feraz

2015-05-01

In extracting predictions from theories that describe a multiverse, we face the difficulty that we must assess probability distributions over possible observations prescribed not just by an underlying theory, but by a theory together with a conditionalization scheme that allows for (anthropic) selection effects. This means we usually need to compare distributions that are consistent with a broad range of possible observations with actual experimental data. One controversial means of making this comparison is by invoking the "principle of mediocrity": that is, the principle that we are typical of the reference class implicit in the conjunction of the theory and the conditionalization scheme. In this paper, we quantitatively assess the principle of mediocrity in a range of cosmological settings, employing "xerographic distributions" to impose a variety of assumptions regarding typicality. We find that for a fixed theory, the assumption that we are typical gives rise to higher likelihoods for our observations. If, however, one allows both the underlying theory and the assumption of typicality to vary, then the assumption of typicality does not always provide the highest likelihoods. Interpreted from a Bayesian perspective, these results support the claim that when one has the freedom to consider different combinations of theories and xerographic distributions (or different "frameworks"), one should favor the framework that has the highest posterior probability; and then from this framework one can infer, in particular, how typical we are. In this way, the invocation of the principle of mediocrity is more questionable than has been recently claimed.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: A Framework for Their Assessment.

PubMed

Catling, David C; Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Kiang, Nancy Y; Crisp, David; Robinson, Tyler D; DasSarma, Shiladitya; Rushby, Andrew J; Del Genio, Anthony; Bains, William; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

2018-04-20

Finding life on exoplanets from telescopic observations is an ultimate goal of exoplanet science. Life produces gases and other substances, such as pigments, which can have distinct spectral or photometric signatures. Whether or not life is found with future data must be expressed with probabilities, requiring a framework of biosignature assessment. We present a framework in which we advocate using biogeochemical "Exo-Earth System" models to simulate potential biosignatures in spectra or photometry. Given actual observations, simulations are used to find the Bayesian likelihoods of those data occurring for scenarios with and without life. The latter includes "false positives" wherein abiotic sources mimic biosignatures. Prior knowledge of factors influencing planetary inhabitation, including previous observations, is combined with the likelihoods to give the Bayesian posterior probability of life existing on a given exoplanet. Four components of observation and analysis are necessary. (1) Characterization of stellar (e.g., age and spectrum) and exoplanetary system properties, including "external" exoplanet parameters (e.g., mass and radius), to determine an exoplanet's suitability for life. (2) Characterization of "internal" exoplanet parameters (e.g., climate) to evaluate habitability. (3) Assessment of potential biosignatures within the environmental context (components 1-2), including corroborating evidence. (4) Exclusion of false positives. We propose that resulting posterior Bayesian probabilities of life's existence map to five confidence levels, ranging from "very likely" (90-100%) to "very unlikely" (<10%) inhabited. Key Words: Bayesian statistics-Biosignatures-Drake equation-Exoplanets-Habitability-Planetary science. Astrobiology 18, xxx-xxx.

Maximum-likelihood spectral estimation and adaptive filtering techniques with application to airborne Doppler weather radar. Thesis Technical Report No. 20

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lai, Jonathan Y.

1994-01-01

This dissertation focuses on the signal processing problems associated with the detection of hazardous windshears using airborne Doppler radar when weak weather returns are in the presence of strong clutter returns. In light of the frequent inadequacy of spectral-processing oriented clutter suppression methods, we model a clutter signal as multiple sinusoids plus Gaussian noise, and propose adaptive filtering approaches that better capture the temporal characteristics of the signal process. This idea leads to two research topics in signal processing: (1) signal modeling and parameter estimation, and (2) adaptive filtering in this particular signal environment. A high-resolution, low SNR threshold maximum likelihood (ML) frequency estimation and signal modeling algorithm is devised and proves capable of delineating both the spectral and temporal nature of the clutter return. Furthermore, the Least Mean Square (LMS) -based adaptive filter's performance for the proposed signal model is investigated, and promising simulation results have testified to its potential for clutter rejection leading to more accurate estimation of windspeed thus obtaining a better assessment of the windshear hazard.

Comparing the Performance of Improved Classify-Analyze Approaches For Distal Outcomes in Latent Profile Analysis

PubMed Central

Dziak, John J.; Bray, Bethany C.; Zhang, Jieting; Zhang, Minqiang; Lanza, Stephanie T.

2016-01-01

Several approaches are available for estimating the relationship of latent class membership to distal outcomes in latent profile analysis (LPA). A three-step approach is commonly used, but has problems with estimation bias and confidence interval coverage. Proposed improvements include the correction method of Bolck, Croon, and Hagenaars (BCH; 2004), Vermunt’s (2010) maximum likelihood (ML) approach, and the inclusive three-step approach of Bray, Lanza, & Tan (2015). These methods have been studied in the related case of latent class analysis (LCA) with categorical indicators, but not as well studied for LPA with continuous indicators. We investigated the performance of these approaches in LPA with normally distributed indicators, under different conditions of distal outcome distribution, class measurement quality, relative latent class size, and strength of association between latent class and the distal outcome. The modified BCH implemented in Latent GOLD had excellent performance. The maximum likelihood and inclusive approaches were not robust to violations of distributional assumptions. These findings broadly agree with and extend the results presented by Bakk and Vermunt (2016) in the context of LCA with categorical indicators. PMID:28630602

Morphological variability and molecular identification of Uncinaria spp. (Nematoda: Ancylostomatidae) from grizzly and black bears: new species or phenotypic plasticity?

PubMed

Catalano, Stefano; Lejeune, Manigandan; van Paridon, Bradley; Pagan, Christopher A; Wasmuth, James D; Tizzani, Paolo; Duignan, Pádraig J; Nadler, Steven A

2015-04-01

The hookworms Uncinaria rauschi Olsen, 1968 and Uncinaria yukonensis ( Wolfgang, 1956 ) were formally described from grizzly ( Ursus arctos horribilis) and black bears ( Ursus americanus ) of North America. We analyzed the intestinal tracts of 4 grizzly and 9 black bears from Alberta and British Columbia, Canada and isolated Uncinaria specimens with anatomical traits never previously documented. We applied morphological and molecular techniques to investigate the taxonomy and phylogeny of these Uncinaria parasites. The morphological analysis supported polymorphism at the vulvar region for females of both U. rauschi and U. yukonensis. The hypothesis of morphological plasticity for U. rauschi and U. yukonensis was confirmed by genetic analysis of the internal transcribed spacers (ITS-1 and ITS-2) of the nuclear ribosomal DNA. Two distinct genotypes were identified, differing at 5 fixed sites for ITS-1 (432 base pairs [bp]) and 7 for ITS-2 (274 bp). Morphometric data for U. rauschi revealed host-related size differences: adult U. rauschi were significantly larger in black bears than in grizzly bears. Interpretation of these results, considering the historical biogeography of North American bears, suggests a relatively recent host-switching event of U. rauschi from black bears to grizzly bears which likely occurred after the end of the Wisconsin glaciation. Phylogenetic maximum parsimony (MP) and maximum likelihood (ML) analyses of the concatenated ITS-1 and ITS-2 datasets strongly supported monophyly of U. rauschi and U. yukonensis and their close relationship with Uncinaria stenocephala (Railliet, 1884), the latter a parasite primarily of canids and felids. Relationships among species within this group, although resolved by ML, were unsupported by MP and bootstrap resampling. The clade of U. rauschi, U. yukonensis, and U. stenocephala was recovered as sister to the clade represented by Uncinaria spp. from otariid pinnipeds. These results support the absence of strict host-parasite co-phylogeny for Uncinaria spp. and their carnivore hosts. Phylogenetic relationships among Uncinaria spp. provided a framework to develop the hypothesis of similar transmission patterns for the closely related U. rauschi, U. yukonensis, and U. stenocephala.

Phylogeny with introgression in Habronattus jumping spiders (Araneae: Salticidae).

PubMed

Leduc-Robert, Geneviève; Maddison, Wayne P

2018-02-22

Habronattus is a diverse clade of jumping spiders with complex courtship displays and repeated evolution of Y chromosomes. A well-resolved species phylogeny would provide an important framework to study these traits, but has not yet been achieved, in part because the few genes available in past studies gave conflicting signals. Such discordant gene trees could be the result of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) in recently diverged parts of the phylogeny, but there are indications that introgression could be a source of conflict. To infer Habronattus phylogeny and investigate the cause of gene tree discordance, we assembled transcriptomes for 34 Habronattus species and 2 outgroups. The concatenated 2.41 Mb of nuclear data (1877 loci) resolved phylogeny by Maximum Likelihood (ML) with high bootstrap support (95-100%) at most nodes, with some uncertainty surrounding the relationships of H. icenoglei, H. cambridgei, H. oregonensis, and Pellenes canadensis. Species tree analyses by ASTRAL and SVDQuartets gave almost completely congruent results. Several nodes in the ML phylogeny from 12.33 kb of mitochondrial data are incongruent with the nuclear phylogeny and indicate possible mitochondrial introgression: the internal relationships of the americanus and the coecatus groups, the relationship between the altanus, decorus, banksi, and americanus group, and between H. clypeatus and the coecatus group. To determine the relative contributions of ILS and introgression, we analyzed gene tree discordance for nuclear loci longer than 1 kb using Bayesian Concordance Analysis (BCA) for the americanus group (679 loci) and the VCCR clade (viridipes/clypeatus/coecatus/roberti groups) (517 loci) and found signals of introgression in both. Finally, we tested specifically for introgression in the concatenated nuclear matrix with Patterson's D statistics and D FOIL . We found nuclear introgression resulting in substantial admixture between americanus group species, between H. roberti and the clypeatus group, and between the clypeatus and coecatus groups. Our results indicate that the phylogenetic history of Habronattus is predominantly a diverging tree, but that hybridization may have been common between phylogenetically distant species, especially in subgroups with complex courtship displays.

PharmML in Action: an Interoperable Language for Modeling and Simulation.

PubMed

Bizzotto, R; Comets, E; Smith, G; Yvon, F; Kristensen, N R; Swat, M J

2017-10-01

PharmML is an XML-based exchange format created with a focus on nonlinear mixed-effect (NLME) models used in pharmacometrics, but providing a very general framework that also allows describing mathematical and statistical models such as single-subject or nonlinear and multivariate regression models. This tutorial provides an overview of the structure of this language, brief suggestions on how to work with it, and use cases demonstrating its power and flexibility. © 2017 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Soft-Decision Decoding of Binary Linear Block Codes Based on an Iterative Search Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Kasami, Tadao; Moorthy, H. T.

1997-01-01

This correspondence presents a suboptimum soft-decision decoding scheme for binary linear block codes based on an iterative search algorithm. The scheme uses an algebraic decoder to iteratively generate a sequence of candidate codewords one at a time using a set of test error patterns that are constructed based on the reliability information of the received symbols. When a candidate codeword is generated, it is tested based on an optimality condition. If it satisfies the optimality condition, then it is the most likely (ML) codeword and the decoding stops. If it fails the optimality test, a search for the ML codeword is conducted in a region which contains the ML codeword. The search region is determined by the current candidate codeword and the reliability of the received symbols. The search is conducted through a purged trellis diagram for the given code using the Viterbi algorithm. If the search fails to find the ML codeword, a new candidate is generated using a new test error pattern, and the optimality test and search are renewed. The process of testing and search continues until either the MEL codeword is found or all the test error patterns are exhausted and the decoding process is terminated. Numerical results show that the proposed decoding scheme achieves either practically optimal performance or a performance only a fraction of a decibel away from the optimal maximum-likelihood decoding with a significant reduction in decoding complexity compared with the Viterbi decoding based on the full trellis diagram of the codes.

A PET reconstruction formulation that enforces non-negativity in projection space for bias reduction in Y-90 imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Hongki; Dewaraja, Yuni K.; Fessler, Jeffrey A.

2018-02-01

Most existing PET image reconstruction methods impose a nonnegativity constraint in the image domain that is natural physically, but can lead to biased reconstructions. This bias is particularly problematic for Y-90 PET because of the low probability positron production and high random coincidence fraction. This paper investigates a new PET reconstruction formulation that enforces nonnegativity of the projections instead of the voxel values. This formulation allows some negative voxel values, thereby potentially reducing bias. Unlike the previously reported NEG-ML approach that modifies the Poisson log-likelihood to allow negative values, the new formulation retains the classical Poisson statistical model. To relax the non-negativity constraint embedded in the standard methods for PET reconstruction, we used an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Because choice of ADMM parameters can greatly influence convergence rate, we applied an automatic parameter selection method to improve the convergence speed. We investigated the methods using lung to liver slices of XCAT phantom. We simulated low true coincidence count-rates with high random fractions corresponding to the typical values from patient imaging in Y-90 microsphere radioembolization. We compared our new methods with standard reconstruction algorithms and NEG-ML and a regularized version thereof. Both our new method and NEG-ML allow more accurate quantification in all volumes of interest while yielding lower noise than the standard method. The performance of NEG-ML can degrade when its user-defined parameter is tuned poorly, while the proposed algorithm is robust to any count level without requiring parameter tuning.

Evolution of complex fruiting-body morphologies in homobasidiomycetes.

PubMed Central

Hibbett, David S; Binder, Manfred

2002-01-01

The fruiting bodies of homobasidiomycetes include some of the most complex forms that have evolved in the fungi, such as gilled mushrooms, bracket fungi and puffballs ('pileate-erect') forms. Homobasidiomycetes also include relatively simple crust-like 'resupinate' forms, however, which account for ca. 13-15% of the described species in the group. Resupinate homobasidiomycetes have been interpreted either as a paraphyletic grade of plesiomorphic forms or a polyphyletic assemblage of reduced forms. The former view suggests that morphological evolution in homobasidiomycetes has been marked by independent elaboration in many clades, whereas the latter view suggests that parallel simplification has been a common mode of evolution. To infer patterns of morphological evolution in homobasidiomycetes, we constructed phylogenetic trees from a dataset of 481 species and performed ancestral state reconstruction (ASR) using parsimony and maximum likelihood (ML) methods. ASR with both parsimony and ML implies that the ancestor of the homobasidiomycetes was resupinate, and that there have been multiple gains and losses of complex forms in the homobasidiomycetes. We also used ML to address whether there is an asymmetry in the rate of transformations between simple and complex forms. Models of morphological evolution inferred with ML indicate that the rate of transformations from simple to complex forms is about three to six times greater than the rate of transformations in the reverse direction. A null model of morphological evolution, in which there is no asymmetry in transformation rates, was rejected. These results suggest that there is a 'driven' trend towards the evolution of complex forms in homobasidiomycetes. PMID:12396494

Aptamer-functionalized Magnetic Conjugated Organic Frameworks for Selective Extraction of Trace Hydroxylated Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Human Serum.

PubMed

Jiang, Dandan; Hu, Tingting; Zheng, Haijiao; Xu, Guoxing; Jia, Qiong

2018-05-02

Herein, a novel solid phase extraction adsorbent based on aptamer-functionalized magnetic conjugated organic frameworks (COFs) was developed for selective extraction of trace hydroxylated polychlorinated biphenyls (OH-PCBs). The material possessed advantages of superparamagnetism of magnetic core, high surface area and porous structure of COFs, and high specific affinity of aptamer. In combination with high-performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry, the aptamer-functionalized magnetic COFs was used for the capture of hydroxy-2',3',4',5,5'-pentachlorobiphenyl (2-OH-CB 124) in human serum. The method provided a linear range of 0.01-40 ng mL-1 with a good correlation coefficient (R2= 0.9973). The limit of detection was found to be as low as 2.1 pg mL-1. Furthermore, the material possessed good reusability and could be applied in replicate at least for 10 extraction cycles with recoveries over 90%. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Poisson Log-Normal Model for Constructing Gene Covariation Network Using RNA-seq Data.

PubMed

Choi, Yoonha; Coram, Marc; Peng, Jie; Tang, Hua

2017-07-01

Constructing expression networks using transcriptomic data is an effective approach for studying gene regulation. A popular approach for constructing such a network is based on the Gaussian graphical model (GGM), in which an edge between a pair of genes indicates that the expression levels of these two genes are conditionally dependent, given the expression levels of all other genes. However, GGMs are not appropriate for non-Gaussian data, such as those generated in RNA-seq experiments. We propose a novel statistical framework that maximizes a penalized likelihood, in which the observed count data follow a Poisson log-normal distribution. To overcome the computational challenges, we use Laplace's method to approximate the likelihood and its gradients, and apply the alternating directions method of multipliers to find the penalized maximum likelihood estimates. The proposed method is evaluated and compared with GGMs using both simulated and real RNA-seq data. The proposed method shows improved performance in detecting edges that represent covarying pairs of genes, particularly for edges connecting low-abundant genes and edges around regulatory hubs.

A semiparametric Bayesian proportional hazards model for interval censored data with frailty effects.

PubMed

Henschel, Volkmar; Engel, Jutta; Hölzel, Dieter; Mansmann, Ulrich

2009-02-10

Multivariate analysis of interval censored event data based on classical likelihood methods is notoriously cumbersome. Likelihood inference for models which additionally include random effects are not available at all. Developed algorithms bear problems for practical users like: matrix inversion, slow convergence, no assessment of statistical uncertainty. MCMC procedures combined with imputation are used to implement hierarchical models for interval censored data within a Bayesian framework. Two examples from clinical practice demonstrate the handling of clustered interval censored event times as well as multilayer random effects for inter-institutional quality assessment. The software developed is called survBayes and is freely available at CRAN. The proposed software supports the solution of complex analyses in many fields of clinical epidemiology as well as health services research.

MCMC multilocus lod scores: application of a new approach.

PubMed

George, Andrew W; Wijsman, Ellen M; Thompson, Elizabeth A

2005-01-01

On extended pedigrees with extensive missing data, the calculation of multilocus likelihoods for linkage analysis is often beyond the computational bounds of exact methods. Growing interest therefore surrounds the implementation of Monte Carlo estimation methods. In this paper, we demonstrate the speed and accuracy of a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for the estimation of linkage likelihoods through an analysis of real data from a study of early-onset Alzheimer's disease. For those data sets where comparison with exact analysis is possible, we achieved up to a 100-fold increase in speed. Our approach is implemented in the program lm_bayes within the framework of the freely available MORGAN 2.6 package for Monte Carlo genetic analysis (http://www.stat.washington.edu/thompson/Genepi/MORGAN/Morgan.shtml).

The intersectionality of postsecondary pathways: the case of high school students with special education needs.

PubMed

Robson, Karen L; Anisef, Paul; Brown, Robert S; Parekh, Gillian

2014-08-01

Using data from the Toronto District School Board, we examine the postsecondary pathways of students with special education needs (SEN). We consider both university and college pathways, employing multilevel multinomial logistic regressions, conceptualizing our findings within a life course and intersectionality framework. Our findings reveal that having SEN reduces the likelihood of confirming university, but increases the likelihood of college confirmation. We examine a set of known determinants of postsecondary education (PSE) pathways that were derived from the literature and employ exploratory statistical interactions to examine if the intersection of various traits differentially impacts upon the PSE trajectories of students with SEN. Our findings reveal that parental education, neighborhood wealth, race, and streaming impact on the postsecondary pathways of students with SEN in Toronto.

Health management system for rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Edward

1990-01-01

The functional framework of a failure detection algorithm for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) is developed. The basic algorithm is based only on existing SSME measurements. Supplemental measurements, expected to enhance failure detection effectiveness, are identified. To support the algorithm development, a figure of merit is defined to estimate the likelihood of SSME criticality 1 failure modes and the failure modes are ranked in order of likelihood of occurrence. Nine classes of failure detection strategies are evaluated and promising features are extracted as the basis for the failure detection algorithm. The failure detection algorithm provides early warning capabilities for a wide variety of SSME failure modes. Preliminary algorithm evaluation, using data from three SSME failures representing three different failure types, demonstrated indications of imminent catastrophic failure well in advance of redline cutoff in all three cases.

Singular value decomposition for photon-processing nuclear imaging systems and applications for reconstruction and computing null functions.

PubMed

Jha, Abhinav K; Barrett, Harrison H; Frey, Eric C; Clarkson, Eric; Caucci, Luca; Kupinski, Matthew A

2015-09-21

Recent advances in technology are enabling a new class of nuclear imaging systems consisting of detectors that use real-time maximum-likelihood (ML) methods to estimate the interaction position, deposited energy, and other attributes of each photon-interaction event and store these attributes in a list format. This class of systems, which we refer to as photon-processing (PP) nuclear imaging systems, can be described by a fundamentally different mathematical imaging operator that allows processing of the continuous-valued photon attributes on a per-photon basis. Unlike conventional photon-counting (PC) systems that bin the data into images, PP systems do not have any binning-related information loss. Mathematically, while PC systems have an infinite-dimensional null space due to dimensionality considerations, PP systems do not necessarily suffer from this issue. Therefore, PP systems have the potential to provide improved performance in comparison to PC systems. To study these advantages, we propose a framework to perform the singular-value decomposition (SVD) of the PP imaging operator. We use this framework to perform the SVD of operators that describe a general two-dimensional (2D) planar linear shift-invariant (LSIV) PP system and a hypothetical continuously rotating 2D single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) PP system. We then discuss two applications of the SVD framework. The first application is to decompose the object being imaged by the PP imaging system into measurement and null components. We compare these components to the measurement and null components obtained with PC systems. In the process, we also present a procedure to compute the null functions for a PC system. The second application is designing analytical reconstruction algorithms for PP systems. The proposed analytical approach exploits the fact that PP systems acquire data in a continuous domain to estimate a continuous object function. The approach is parallelizable and implemented for graphics processing units (GPUs). Further, this approach leverages another important advantage of PP systems, namely the possibility to perform photon-by-photon real-time reconstruction. We demonstrate the application of the approach to perform reconstruction in a simulated 2D SPECT system. The results help to validate and demonstrate the utility of the proposed method and show that PP systems can help overcome the aliasing artifacts that are otherwise intrinsically present in PC systems.

Singular value decomposition for photon-processing nuclear imaging systems and applications for reconstruction and computing null functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Abhinav K.; Barrett, Harrison H.; Frey, Eric C.; Clarkson, Eric; Caucci, Luca; Kupinski, Matthew A.

2015-09-01

Recent advances in technology are enabling a new class of nuclear imaging systems consisting of detectors that use real-time maximum-likelihood (ML) methods to estimate the interaction position, deposited energy, and other attributes of each photon-interaction event and store these attributes in a list format. This class of systems, which we refer to as photon-processing (PP) nuclear imaging systems, can be described by a fundamentally different mathematical imaging operator that allows processing of the continuous-valued photon attributes on a per-photon basis. Unlike conventional photon-counting (PC) systems that bin the data into images, PP systems do not have any binning-related information loss. Mathematically, while PC systems have an infinite-dimensional null space due to dimensionality considerations, PP systems do not necessarily suffer from this issue. Therefore, PP systems have the potential to provide improved performance in comparison to PC systems. To study these advantages, we propose a framework to perform the singular-value decomposition (SVD) of the PP imaging operator. We use this framework to perform the SVD of operators that describe a general two-dimensional (2D) planar linear shift-invariant (LSIV) PP system and a hypothetical continuously rotating 2D single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) PP system. We then discuss two applications of the SVD framework. The first application is to decompose the object being imaged by the PP imaging system into measurement and null components. We compare these components to the measurement and null components obtained with PC systems. In the process, we also present a procedure to compute the null functions for a PC system. The second application is designing analytical reconstruction algorithms for PP systems. The proposed analytical approach exploits the fact that PP systems acquire data in a continuous domain to estimate a continuous object function. The approach is parallelizable and implemented for graphics processing units (GPUs). Further, this approach leverages another important advantage of PP systems, namely the possibility to perform photon-by-photon real-time reconstruction. We demonstrate the application of the approach to perform reconstruction in a simulated 2D SPECT system. The results help to validate and demonstrate the utility of the proposed method and show that PP systems can help overcome the aliasing artifacts that are otherwise intrinsically present in PC systems.

Painting galaxies into dark matter halos using machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwal, Shankar; Davé, Romeel; Bassett, Bruce A.

2018-05-01

We develop a machine learning (ML) framework to populate large dark matter-only simulations with baryonic galaxies. Our ML framework takes input halo properties including halo mass, environment, spin, and recent growth history, and outputs central galaxy and halo baryonic properties including stellar mass (M*), star formation rate (SFR), metallicity (Z), neutral (H I) and molecular (H_2) hydrogen mass. We apply this to the MUFASA cosmological hydrodynamic simulation, and show that it recovers the mean trends of output quantities with halo mass highly accurately, including following the sharp drop in SFR and gas in quenched massive galaxies. However, the scatter around the mean relations is under-predicted. Examining galaxies individually, at z = 0 the stellar mass and metallicity are accurately recovered (σ ≲ 0.2 dex), but SFR and H I show larger scatter (σ ≳ 0.3 dex); these values improve somewhat at z = 1, 2. Remarkably, ML quantitatively recovers second parameter trends in galaxy properties, e.g. that galaxies with higher gas content and lower metallicity have higher SFR at a given M*. Testing various ML algorithms, we find that none perform significantly better than the others, nor does ensembling improve performance, likely because none of the algorithms reproduce the large observed scatter around the mean properties. For the random forest algorithm, we find that halo mass and nearby (˜200 kpc) environment are the most important predictive variables followed by growth history, while halo spin and ˜Mpc scale environment are not important. Finally we study the impact of additionally inputting key baryonic properties M*, SFR, and Z, as would be available e.g. from an equilibrium model, and show that particularly providing the SFR enables H I to be recovered substantially more accurately.

mlCAF: Multi-Level Cross-Domain Semantic Context Fusioning for Behavior Identification.

PubMed

Razzaq, Muhammad Asif; Villalonga, Claudia; Lee, Sungyoung; Akhtar, Usman; Ali, Maqbool; Kim, Eun-Soo; Khattak, Asad Masood; Seung, Hyonwoo; Hur, Taeho; Bang, Jaehun; Kim, Dohyeong; Ali Khan, Wajahat

2017-10-24

The emerging research on automatic identification of user's contexts from the cross-domain environment in ubiquitous and pervasive computing systems has proved to be successful. Monitoring the diversified user's contexts and behaviors can help in controlling lifestyle associated to chronic diseases using context-aware applications. However, availability of cross-domain heterogeneous contexts provides a challenging opportunity for their fusion to obtain abstract information for further analysis. This work demonstrates extension of our previous work from a single domain (i.e., physical activity) to multiple domains (physical activity, nutrition and clinical) for context-awareness. We propose multi-level Context-aware Framework (mlCAF), which fuses the multi-level cross-domain contexts in order to arbitrate richer behavioral contexts. This work explicitly focuses on key challenges linked to multi-level context modeling, reasoning and fusioning based on the mlCAF open-source ontology. More specifically, it addresses the interpretation of contexts from three different domains, their fusioning conforming to richer contextual information. This paper contributes in terms of ontology evolution with additional domains, context definitions, rules and inclusion of semantic queries. For the framework evaluation, multi-level cross-domain contexts collected from 20 users were used to ascertain abstract contexts, which served as basis for behavior modeling and lifestyle identification. The experimental results indicate a context recognition average accuracy of around 92.65% for the collected cross-domain contexts.

mlCAF: Multi-Level Cross-Domain Semantic Context Fusioning for Behavior Identification

PubMed Central

Villalonga, Claudia; Lee, Sungyoung; Akhtar, Usman; Ali, Maqbool; Kim, Eun-Soo; Khattak, Asad Masood; Seung, Hyonwoo; Hur, Taeho; Kim, Dohyeong; Ali Khan, Wajahat

2017-01-01

The emerging research on automatic identification of user’s contexts from the cross-domain environment in ubiquitous and pervasive computing systems has proved to be successful. Monitoring the diversified user’s contexts and behaviors can help in controlling lifestyle associated to chronic diseases using context-aware applications. However, availability of cross-domain heterogeneous contexts provides a challenging opportunity for their fusion to obtain abstract information for further analysis. This work demonstrates extension of our previous work from a single domain (i.e., physical activity) to multiple domains (physical activity, nutrition and clinical) for context-awareness. We propose multi-level Context-aware Framework (mlCAF), which fuses the multi-level cross-domain contexts in order to arbitrate richer behavioral contexts. This work explicitly focuses on key challenges linked to multi-level context modeling, reasoning and fusioning based on the mlCAF open-source ontology. More specifically, it addresses the interpretation of contexts from three different domains, their fusioning conforming to richer contextual information. This paper contributes in terms of ontology evolution with additional domains, context definitions, rules and inclusion of semantic queries. For the framework evaluation, multi-level cross-domain contexts collected from 20 users were used to ascertain abstract contexts, which served as basis for behavior modeling and lifestyle identification. The experimental results indicate a context recognition average accuracy of around 92.65% for the collected cross-domain contexts. PMID:29064459

A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation.

PubMed

Meuwly, Didier; Ramos, Daniel; Haraksim, Rudolf

2017-07-01

This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes' inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likelihood Ratio is used to evaluate the strength of the evidence for a trace specimen, e.g. a fingermark, and a reference specimen, e.g. a fingerprint, to originate from common or different sources. Some theoretical aspects of probabilities necessary for this Guideline were discussed prior to its elaboration, which started after a workshop of forensic researchers and practitioners involved in this topic. In the workshop, the following questions were addressed: "which aspects of a forensic evaluation scenario need to be validated?", "what is the role of the LR as part of a decision process?" and "how to deal with uncertainty in the LR calculation?". The questions: "what to validate?" focuses on the validation methods and criteria and "how to validate?" deals with the implementation of the validation protocol. Answers to these questions were deemed necessary with several objectives. First, concepts typical for validation standards [1], such as performance characteristics, performance metrics and validation criteria, will be adapted or applied by analogy to the LR framework. Second, a validation strategy will be defined. Third, validation methods will be described. Finally, a validation protocol and an example of validation report will be proposed, which can be applied to the forensic fields developing and validating LR methods for the evaluation of the strength of evidence at source level under the following propositions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

VarioML framework for comprehensive variation data representation and exchange.

PubMed

Byrne, Myles; Fokkema, Ivo Fac; Lancaster, Owen; Adamusiak, Tomasz; Ahonen-Bishopp, Anni; Atlan, David; Béroud, Christophe; Cornell, Michael; Dalgleish, Raymond; Devereau, Andrew; Patrinos, George P; Swertz, Morris A; Taschner, Peter Em; Thorisson, Gudmundur A; Vihinen, Mauno; Brookes, Anthony J; Muilu, Juha

2012-10-03

Sharing of data about variation and the associated phenotypes is a critical need, yet variant information can be arbitrarily complex, making a single standard vocabulary elusive and re-formatting difficult. Complex standards have proven too time-consuming to implement. The GEN2PHEN project addressed these difficulties by developing a comprehensive data model for capturing biomedical observations, Observ-OM, and building the VarioML format around it. VarioML pairs a simplified open specification for describing variants, with a toolkit for adapting the specification into one's own research workflow. Straightforward variant data can be captured, federated, and exchanged with no overhead; more complex data can be described, without loss of compatibility. The open specification enables push-button submission to gene variant databases (LSDBs) e.g., the Leiden Open Variation Database, using the Cafe Variome data publishing service, while VarioML bidirectionally transforms data between XML and web-application code formats, opening up new possibilities for open source web applications building on shared data. A Java implementation toolkit makes VarioML easily integrated into biomedical applications. VarioML is designed primarily for LSDB data submission and transfer scenarios, but can also be used as a standard variation data format for JSON and XML document databases and user interface components. VarioML is a set of tools and practices improving the availability, quality, and comprehensibility of human variation information. It enables researchers, diagnostic laboratories, and clinics to share that information with ease, clarity, and without ambiguity.

VarioML framework for comprehensive variation data representation and exchange

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Sharing of data about variation and the associated phenotypes is a critical need, yet variant information can be arbitrarily complex, making a single standard vocabulary elusive and re-formatting difficult. Complex standards have proven too time-consuming to implement. Results The GEN2PHEN project addressed these difficulties by developing a comprehensive data model for capturing biomedical observations, Observ-OM, and building the VarioML format around it. VarioML pairs a simplified open specification for describing variants, with a toolkit for adapting the specification into one's own research workflow. Straightforward variant data can be captured, federated, and exchanged with no overhead; more complex data can be described, without loss of compatibility. The open specification enables push-button submission to gene variant databases (LSDBs) e.g., the Leiden Open Variation Database, using the Cafe Variome data publishing service, while VarioML bidirectionally transforms data between XML and web-application code formats, opening up new possibilities for open source web applications building on shared data. A Java implementation toolkit makes VarioML easily integrated into biomedical applications. VarioML is designed primarily for LSDB data submission and transfer scenarios, but can also be used as a standard variation data format for JSON and XML document databases and user interface components. Conclusions VarioML is a set of tools and practices improving the availability, quality, and comprehensibility of human variation information. It enables researchers, diagnostic laboratories, and clinics to share that information with ease, clarity, and without ambiguity. PMID:23031277

Uncertainty estimation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships: A regional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mélèse, Victor; Blanchet, Juliette; Molinié, Gilles

2018-03-01

We propose in this article a regional study of uncertainties in IDF curves derived from point-rainfall maxima. We develop two generalized extreme value models based on the simple scaling assumption, first in the frequentist framework and second in the Bayesian framework. Within the frequentist framework, uncertainties are obtained i) from the Gaussian density stemming from the asymptotic normality theorem of the maximum likelihood and ii) with a bootstrap procedure. Within the Bayesian framework, uncertainties are obtained from the posterior densities. We confront these two frameworks on the same database covering a large region of 100, 000 km2 in southern France with contrasted rainfall regime, in order to be able to draw conclusion that are not specific to the data. The two frameworks are applied to 405 hourly stations with data back to the 1980's, accumulated in the range 3 h-120 h. We show that i) the Bayesian framework is more robust than the frequentist one to the starting point of the estimation procedure, ii) the posterior and the bootstrap densities are able to better adjust uncertainty estimation to the data than the Gaussian density, and iii) the bootstrap density give unreasonable confidence intervals, in particular for return levels associated to large return period. Therefore our recommendation goes towards the use of the Bayesian framework to compute uncertainty.

Serum soluble CD30 in early arthritis: a sign of inflammation but not a predictor of outcome.

PubMed

Savolainen, E; Matinlauri, I; Kautiainen, H; Luosujärvi, R; Kaipiainen-Seppänen, O

2008-01-01

To evaluate serum soluble CD30 levels (sCD30) in an early arthritis series and assess their ability to predict the outcome in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and undifferentiated arthritis (UA) at one year follow-up. Serum sCD30 levels were measured by ELISA from 92 adult patients with RA and UA at baseline and from 60 adult controls. The patients were followed up for one year in the Kuopio 2000 Arthritis Survey. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine cut off points of sCD30 in RA and UA that select the inflammatory disease from controls. Sensitivity, specificity and positive likelihood ratio, and their 95 % CIs were calculated for sCD30 levels in RA and UA. Median serum sCD30 levels were higher in RA 25.1 (IQ range 16.3-38.6) IU/ml (p<0.001) and in UA 23.4 (15.4-35.6) IU/ml (p<0.001) than in controls 15.1 (10.7-20.8) IU/ml. No differences were recorded between RA and UA (p=0.840). Serum sCD30 levels at baseline did not predict remission at one year follow-up. Serum sCD30 levels were higher in RA and UA than in controls at baseline but they did not predict remission at one year follow-up in this series.

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ., Apr. 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, P. C.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

Regulation of myocardial blood flow response to mental stress in healthy individuals.

PubMed

Schöder, H; Silverman, D H; Campisi, R; Sayre, J W; Phelps, M E; Schelbert, H R; Czernin, J

2000-02-01

Mental stress testing has been proposed as a noninvasive tool to evaluate endothelium-dependent coronary vasomotion. In patients with coronary artery disease, mental stress can induce myocardial ischemia. However, even the determinants of the physiological myocardial blood flow (MBF) response to mental stress are poorly understood. Twenty-four individuals (12 males/12 females, mean age 49 +/- 13 yr, range 31-74 yr) with a low likelihood for coronary artery disease were studied. Serum catecholamines, cardiac work, and MBF (measured quantitatively with N-13 ammonia and positron emission tomography) were assessed. During mental stress (arithmetic calculation) MBF increased significantly from 0.70 +/- 0.14 to 0.92 +/- 0.21 ml x min(-1) x g(-1) (P < 0.01). Mental stress caused significant increases (P < 0.01) in serum epinephrine (26 +/- 16 vs. 42 +/- 17 pg/ml), norepinephrine (272 +/- 139 vs. 322 +/- 136 pg/ml), and cardiac work [rate-pressure product (RPP) 8,011 +/- 1,884 vs. 10,416 +/- 2,711]. Stress-induced changes in cardiac work were correlated with changes in MBF (r = 0.72; P < 0.01). Multiple-regression analysis revealed stress-induced changes in the RPP as the only significant (P = 0.0001) predictor for the magnitude of mental stress-induced increases in MBF in healthy individuals. Data from this group of healthy individuals should prove useful to investigate coronary vasomotion in individuals at risk for or with documented coronary artery disease.

Origin of the Eumetazoa: testing ecological predictions of molecular clocks against the Proterozoic fossil record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Kevin J.; Butterfield, Nicholas J.

2005-01-01

Molecular clocks have the potential to shed light on the timing of early metazoan divergences, but differing algorithms and calibration points yield conspicuously discordant results. We argue here that competing molecular clock hypotheses should be testable in the fossil record, on the principle that fundamentally new grades of animal organization will have ecosystem-wide impacts. Using a set of seven nuclear-encoded protein sequences, we demonstrate the paraphyly of Porifera and calculate sponge/eumetazoan and cnidarian/bilaterian divergence times by using both distance [minimum evolution (ME)] and maximum likelihood (ML) molecular clocks; ME brackets the appearance of Eumetazoa between 634 and 604 Ma, whereas ML suggests it was between 867 and 748 Ma. Significantly, the ME, but not the ML, estimate is coincident with a major regime change in the Proterozoic acritarch record, including: (i) disappearance of low-diversity, evolutionarily static, pre-Ediacaran acanthomorphs; (ii) radiation of the high-diversity, short-lived Doushantuo-Pertatataka microbiota; and (iii) an order-of-magnitude increase in evolutionary turnover rate. We interpret this turnover as a consequence of the novel ecological challenges accompanying the evolution of the eumetazoan nervous system and gut. Thus, the more readily preserved microfossil record provides positive evidence for the absence of pre-Ediacaran eumetazoans and strongly supports the veracity, and therefore more general application, of the ME molecular clock.

A computational fluid dynamics simulation framework for ventricular catheter design optimization.

PubMed

Weisenberg, Sofy H; TerMaath, Stephanie C; Barbier, Charlotte N; Hill, Judith C; Killeffer, James A

2017-11-10

OBJECTIVE Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) shunts are the primary treatment for patients suffering from hydrocephalus. While proven effective in symptom relief, these shunt systems are plagued by high failure rates and often require repeated revision surgeries to replace malfunctioning components. One of the leading causes of CSF shunt failure is obstruction of the ventricular catheter by aggregations of cells, proteins, blood clots, or fronds of choroid plexus that occlude the catheter's small inlet holes or even the full internal catheter lumen. Such obstructions can disrupt CSF diversion out of the ventricular system or impede it entirely. Previous studies have suggested that altering the catheter's fluid dynamics may help to reduce the likelihood of complete ventricular catheter failure caused by obstruction. However, systematic correlation between a ventricular catheter's design parameters and its performance, specifically its likelihood to become occluded, still remains unknown. Therefore, an automated, open-source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation framework was developed for use in the medical community to determine optimized ventricular catheter designs and to rapidly explore parameter influence for a given flow objective. METHODS The computational framework was developed by coupling a 3D CFD solver and an iterative optimization algorithm and was implemented in a high-performance computing environment. The capabilities of the framework were demonstrated by computing an optimized ventricular catheter design that provides uniform flow rates through the catheter's inlet holes, a common design objective in the literature. The baseline computational model was validated using 3D nuclear imaging to provide flow velocities at the inlet holes and through the catheter. RESULTS The optimized catheter design achieved through use of the automated simulation framework improved significantly on previous attempts to reach a uniform inlet flow rate distribution using the standard catheter hole configuration as a baseline. While the standard ventricular catheter design featuring uniform inlet hole diameters and hole spacing has a standard deviation of 14.27% for the inlet flow rates, the optimized design has a standard deviation of 0.30%. CONCLUSIONS This customizable framework, paired with high-performance computing, provides a rapid method of design testing to solve complex flow problems. While a relatively simplified ventricular catheter model was used to demonstrate the framework, the computational approach is applicable to any baseline catheter model, and it is easily adapted to optimize catheters for the unique needs of different patients as well as for other fluid-based medical devices.

Multi-scale landscape factors influencing stream water quality in the state of Oregon.

PubMed

Nash, Maliha S; Heggem, Daniel T; Ebert, Donald; Wade, Timothy G; Hall, Robert K

2009-09-01

Enterococci bacteria are used to indicate the presence of human and/or animal fecal materials in surface water. In addition to human influences on the quality of surface water, a cattle grazing is a widespread and persistent ecological stressor in the Western United States. Cattle may affect surface water quality directly by depositing nutrients and bacteria, and indirectly by damaging stream banks or removing vegetation cover, which may lead to increased sediment loads. This study used the State of Oregon surface water data to determine the likelihood of animal pathogen presence using enterococci and analyzed the spatial distribution and relationship of biotic (enterococci) and abiotic (nitrogen and phosphorous) surface water constituents to landscape metrics and others (e.g. human use, percent riparian cover, natural covers, grazing, etc.). We used a grazing potential index (GPI) based on proximity to water, land ownership and forage availability. Mean and variability of GPI, forage availability, stream density and length, and landscape metrics were related to enterococci and many forms of nitrogen and phosphorous in standard and logistic regression models. The GPI did not have a significant role in the models, but forage related variables had significant contribution. Urban land use within stream reach was the main driving factor when exceeding the threshold (> or =35 cfu/100 ml), agriculture was the driving force in elevating enterococci in sites where enterococci concentration was <35 cfu/100 ml. Landscape metrics related to amount of agriculture, wetlands and urban all contributed to increasing nutrients in surface water but at different scales. The probability of having sites with concentrations of enterococci above the threshold was much lower in areas of natural land cover and much higher in areas with higher urban land use within 60 m of stream. A 1% increase in natural land cover was associated with a 12% decrease in the predicted odds of having a site exceeding the threshold. Opposite to natural land cover, a one unit change in each of manmade barren and urban land use led to an increase of the likelihood of exceeding the threshold by 73%, and 11%, respectively. Change in urban land use had a higher influence on the likelihood of a site exceeding the threshold than that of natural land cover.

Laser-Based Slam with Efficient Occupancy Likelihood Map Learning for Dynamic Indoor Scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li; Yao, Jian; Xie, Renping; Tu, Jinge; Feng, Chen

2016-06-01

Location-Based Services (LBS) have attracted growing attention in recent years, especially in indoor environments. The fundamental technique of LBS is the map building for unknown environments, this technique also named as simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) in robotic society. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for SLAMin dynamic indoor scenes based on a 2D laser scanner mounted on a mobile Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) with the help of the grid-based occupancy likelihood map. Instead of applying scan matching in two adjacent scans, we propose to match current scan with the occupancy likelihood map learned from all previous scans in multiple scales to avoid the accumulation of matching errors. Due to that the acquisition of the points in a scan is sequential but not simultaneous, there unavoidably exists the scan distortion at different extents. To compensate the scan distortion caused by the motion of the UGV, we propose to integrate a velocity of a laser range finder (LRF) into the scan matching optimization framework. Besides, to reduce the effect of dynamic objects such as walking pedestrians often existed in indoor scenes as much as possible, we propose a new occupancy likelihood map learning strategy by increasing or decreasing the probability of each occupancy grid after each scan matching. Experimental results in several challenged indoor scenes demonstrate that our proposed approach is capable of providing high-precision SLAM results.

Integration Framework for Heterogeneous Analysis Components: Building a Context Aware Virtual Analyst

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-01

understands commands) modes are supported. By default, Julius comes with the Japanese language support. English acoustic and language models are...GUI, natura atar represent gue managem s the activitie ystem to und ry that suppo the Dialogu der to call arning (ML) learning ca r and feedb

Applications of non-standard maximum likelihood techniques in energy and resource economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeltner, Klaus

Two important types of non-standard maximum likelihood techniques, Simulated Maximum Likelihood (SML) and Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PML), have only recently found consideration in the applied economic literature. The objective of this thesis is to demonstrate how these methods can be successfully employed in the analysis of energy and resource models. Chapter I focuses on SML. It constitutes the first application of this technique in the field of energy economics. The framework is as follows: Surveys on the cost of power outages to commercial and industrial customers usually capture multiple observations on the dependent variable for a given firm. The resulting pooled data set is censored and exhibits cross-sectional heterogeneity. We propose a model that addresses these issues by allowing regression coefficients to vary randomly across respondents and by using the Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane simulator and Halton sequences to estimate high-order cumulative distribution terms. This adjustment requires the use of SML in the estimation process. Our framework allows for a more comprehensive analysis of outage costs than existing models, which rely on the assumptions of parameter constancy and cross-sectional homogeneity. Our results strongly reject both of these restrictions. The central topic of the second Chapter is the use of PML, a robust estimation technique, in count data analysis of visitor demand for a system of recreation sites. PML has been popular with researchers in this context, since it guards against many types of mis-specification errors. We demonstrate, however, that estimation results will generally be biased even if derived through PML if the recreation model is based on aggregate, or zonal data. To countervail this problem, we propose a zonal model of recreation that captures some of the underlying heterogeneity of individual visitors by incorporating distributional information on per-capita income into the aggregate demand function. This adjustment eliminates the unrealistic constraint of constant income across zonal residents, and thus reduces the risk of aggregation bias in estimated macro-parameters. The corrected aggregate specification reinstates the applicability of PML. It also increases model efficiency, and allows-for the generation of welfare estimates for population subgroups.

Chemical landscape analysis with the OpenTox framework.

PubMed

Jeliazkova, Nina; Jeliazkov, Vedrin

2012-01-01

The Structure-Activity Relationships (SAR) landscape and activity cliffs concepts have their origins in medicinal chemistry and receptor-ligand interactions modelling. While intuitive, the definition of an activity cliff as a "pair of structurally similar compounds with large differences in potency" is commonly recognized as ambiguous. This paper proposes a new and efficient method for identifying activity cliffs and visualization of activity landscapes. The activity cliffs definition could be improved to reflect not the cliff steepness alone, but also the rate of the change of the steepness. The method requires explicitly setting similarity and activity difference thresholds, but provides means to explore multiple thresholds and to visualize in a single map how the thresholds affect the activity cliff identification. The identification of the activity cliffs is addressed by reformulating the problem as a statistical one, by introducing a probabilistic measure, namely, calculating the likelihood of a compound having large activity difference compared to other compounds, while being highly similar to them. The likelihood is effectively a quantification of a SAS Map with defined thresholds. Calculating the likelihood relies on four counts only, and does not require the pairwise matrix storage. This is a significant advantage, especially when processing large datasets. The method generates a list of individual compounds, ranked according to the likelihood of their involvement in the formation of activity cliffs, and goes beyond characterizing cliffs by structure pairs only. The visualisation is implemented by considering the activity plane fixed and analysing the irregularities of the similarity itself. It provides a convenient analogy to a topographic map and may help identifying the most appropriate similarity representation for each specific SAR space. The proposed method has been applied to several datasets, representing different biological activities. Finally, the method is implemented as part of an existing open source Ambit package and could be accessed via an OpenTox API compliant web service and via an interactive application, running within a modern, JavaScript enabled web browser. Combined with the functionalities already offered by the OpenTox framework, like data sharing and remote calculations, it could be a useful tool for exploring chemical landscapes online.

Magnetism and Raman Spectroscopy of Pristine and Hydrogenated TaSe2 Monolayer tuned by Tensile and Pure Shear Strain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Sugata; Simpson, Jeffrey; Einstein, T. L.; Walker, Angela R. Hight

2D-materials with controllable optical, electronic and magnetic properties are desirable for novel nanodevices. Here we studied these properties for both pristine and hydrogenated TaSe2 (TaSe2-H) monolayer (ML) in the framework of DFT using the PAW method. We considered uniaxial and biaxial tensile strain, as well as shear strain along the basal planes in the range between 1% and 16%. Previous theoretical works (e.g.) considered only symmetrical biaxial tensile. Pristine ML is ferromagnetic for uniaxial tensile strain along ◯ or ŷ. For tensile strain in ŷ, the calculated magnetic moments of the Ta atoms are twice those for the same strain in ◯. Under pure shear strain (expansion along ŷ and compression along ◯), a pristine ML is ferromagnetic, but becomes non-magnetic when the strain directions are interchanged. Due to carrier-mediated double-exchange, the pristine ML is ferromagnetic when the Se-Ta-Se bond angle is < 82° and the ML thickness is < 3.25Å. We find that all Raman-active phonon modes show obvious red-shifting due to bond elongation and the E2 modes degeneracy is lifted as strain increases. For a TaSe2-H ML, the same trends were observed. Results show the ability to tune the properties of 2D-materials.

Dimensionality of the 9-item Utrecht Work Engagement Scale revisited: A Bayesian structural equation modeling approach.

PubMed

Fong, Ted C T; Ho, Rainbow T H

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to reexamine the dimensionality of the widely used 9-item Utrecht Work Engagement Scale using the maximum likelihood (ML) approach and Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach. Three measurement models (1-factor, 3-factor, and bi-factor models) were evaluated in two split samples of 1,112 health-care workers using confirmatory factor analysis and BSEM, which specified small-variance informative priors for cross-loadings and residual covariances. Model fit and comparisons were evaluated by posterior predictive p-value (PPP), deviance information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). None of the three ML-based models showed an adequate fit to the data. The use of informative priors for cross-loadings did not improve the PPP for the models. The 1-factor BSEM model with approximately zero residual covariances displayed a good fit (PPP>0.10) to both samples and a substantially lower BIC than its 3-factor and bi-factor counterparts. The BSEM results demonstrate empirical support for the 1-factor model as a parsimonious and reasonable representation of work engagement.

How the 2SLS/IV estimator can handle equality constraints in structural equation models: a system-of-equations approach.

PubMed

Nestler, Steffen

2014-05-01

Parameters in structural equation models are typically estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Bollen (1996) proposed an alternative non-iterative, equation-by-equation estimator that uses instrumental variables. Although this two-stage least squares/instrumental variables (2SLS/IV) estimator has good statistical properties, one problem with its application is that parameter equality constraints cannot be imposed. This paper presents a mathematical solution to this problem that is based on an extension of the 2SLS/IV approach to a system of equations. We present an example in which our approach was used to examine strong longitudinal measurement invariance. We also investigated the new approach in a simulation study that compared it with ML in the examination of the equality of two latent regression coefficients and strong measurement invariance. Overall, the results show that the suggested approach is a useful extension of the original 2SLS/IV estimator and allows for the effective handling of equality constraints in structural equation models. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Diversity-optimal power loading for intensity modulated MIMO optical wireless communications.

PubMed

Zhang, Yan-Yu; Yu, Hong-Yi; Zhang, Jian-Kang; Zhu, Yi-Jun

2016-04-18

In this paper, we consider the design of space code for an intensity modulated direct detection multi-input-multi-output optical wireless communication (IM/DD MIMO-OWC) system, in which channel coefficients are independent and non-identically log-normal distributed, with variances and means known at the transmitter and channel state information available at the receiver. Utilizing the existing space code design criterion for IM/DD MIMO-OWC with a maximum likelihood (ML) detector, we design a diversity-optimal space code (DOSC) that maximizes both large-scale diversity and small-scale diversity gains and prove that the spatial repetition code (RC) with a diversity-optimized power allocation is diversity-optimal among all the high dimensional nonnegative space code schemes under a commonly used optical power constraint. In addition, we show that one of significant advantages of the DOSC is to allow low-complexity ML detection. Simulation results indicate that in high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regimes, our proposed DOSC significantly outperforms RC, which is the best space code currently available for such system.

On the asymptotic standard error of a class of robust estimators of ability in dichotomous item response models.

PubMed

Magis, David

2014-11-01

In item response theory, the classical estimators of ability are highly sensitive to response disturbances and can return strongly biased estimates of the true underlying ability level. Robust methods were introduced to lessen the impact of such aberrant responses on the estimation process. The computation of asymptotic (i.e., large-sample) standard errors (ASE) for these robust estimators, however, has not yet been fully considered. This paper focuses on a broad class of robust ability estimators, defined by an appropriate selection of the weight function and the residual measure, for which the ASE is derived from the theory of estimating equations. The maximum likelihood (ML) and the robust estimators, together with their estimated ASEs, are then compared in a simulation study by generating random guessing disturbances. It is concluded that both the estimators and their ASE perform similarly in the absence of random guessing, while the robust estimator and its estimated ASE are less biased and outperform their ML counterparts in the presence of random guessing with large impact on the item response process. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

A Well-Resolved Phylogeny of the Trees of Puerto Rico Based on DNA Barcode Sequence Data

PubMed Central

Muscarella, Robert; Uriarte, María; Erickson, David L.; Swenson, Nathan G.; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Kress, W. John

2014-01-01

Background The use of phylogenetic information in community ecology and conservation has grown in recent years. Two key issues for community phylogenetics studies, however, are (i) low terminal phylogenetic resolution and (ii) arbitrarily defined species pools. Methodology/principal findings We used three DNA barcodes (plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK, and trnH-psbA) to infer a phylogeny for 527 native and naturalized trees of Puerto Rico, representing the vast majority of the entire tree flora of the island (89%). We used a maximum likelihood (ML) approach with and without a constraint tree that enforced monophyly of recognized plant orders. Based on 50% consensus trees, the ML analyses improved phylogenetic resolution relative to a comparable phylogeny generated with Phylomatic (proportion of internal nodes resolved: constrained ML = 74%, unconstrained ML = 68%, Phylomatic = 52%). We quantified the phylogenetic composition of 15 protected forests in Puerto Rico using the constrained ML and Phylomatic phylogenies. We found some evidence that tree communities in areas of high water stress were relatively phylogenetically clustered. Reducing the scale at which the species pool was defined (from island to soil types) changed some of our results depending on which phylogeny (ML vs. Phylomatic) was used. Overall, the increased terminal resolution provided by the ML phylogeny revealed additional patterns that were not observed with a less-resolved phylogeny. Conclusions/significance With the DNA barcode phylogeny presented here (based on an island-wide species pool), we show that a more fully resolved phylogeny increases power to detect nonrandom patterns of community composition in several Puerto Rican tree communities. Especially if combined with additional information on species functional traits and geographic distributions, this phylogeny will (i) facilitate stronger inferences about the role of historical processes in governing the assembly and composition of Puerto Rican forests, (ii) provide insight into Caribbean biogeography, and (iii) aid in incorporating evolutionary history into conservation planning. PMID:25386879

A 3D Voronoi+Gapper Galaxy Cluster Finder in Redshift Space to z ∼ 0.2 I: an Algorithm Optimized for the 2dFGRS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pereira, Sebastián; Campusano, Luis E.; Hitschfeld-Kahler, Nancy

This paper is the first in a series, presenting a new galaxy cluster finder based on a three-dimensional Voronoi Tesselation plus a maximum likelihood estimator, followed by gapping-filtering in radial velocity(VoML+G). The scientific aim of the series is a reassessment of the diversity of optical clusters in the local universe. A mock galaxy database mimicking the southern strip of the magnitude(blue)-limited 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS), for the redshift range 0.009 < z < 0.22, is built on the basis of the Millennium Simulation of the LCDM cosmology and a reference catalog of “Millennium clusters,” spannning across the 1.0 ×more » 10{sup 12}–1.0 × 10{sup 15} M {sub ⊙} h {sup −1} dark matter (DM) halo mass range, is recorded. The validation of VoML+G is performed through its application to the mock data and the ensuing determination of the completeness and purity of the cluster detections by comparison with the reference catalog. The execution of VoML+G over the 2dFGRS mock data identified 1614 clusters, 22% with N {sub g} ≥ 10, 64 percent with 10 > N {sub g} ≥ 5, and 14% with N {sub g} < 5. The ensemble of VoML+G clusters has a ∼59% completeness and a ∼66% purity, whereas the subsample with N {sub g} ≥ 10, to z ∼ 0.14, has greatly improved mean rates of ∼75% and ∼90%, respectively. The VoML+G cluster velocity dispersions are found to be compatible with those corresponding to “Millennium clusters” over the 300–1000 km s{sup −1} interval, i.e., for cluster halo masses in excess of ∼3.0 × 10{sup 13} M {sub ⊙} h {sup −1}.« less

A well-resolved phylogeny of the trees of Puerto Rico based on DNA barcode sequence data.

PubMed

Muscarella, Robert; Uriarte, María; Erickson, David L; Swenson, Nathan G; Zimmerman, Jess K; Kress, W John

2014-01-01

The use of phylogenetic information in community ecology and conservation has grown in recent years. Two key issues for community phylogenetics studies, however, are (i) low terminal phylogenetic resolution and (ii) arbitrarily defined species pools. We used three DNA barcodes (plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK, and trnH-psbA) to infer a phylogeny for 527 native and naturalized trees of Puerto Rico, representing the vast majority of the entire tree flora of the island (89%). We used a maximum likelihood (ML) approach with and without a constraint tree that enforced monophyly of recognized plant orders. Based on 50% consensus trees, the ML analyses improved phylogenetic resolution relative to a comparable phylogeny generated with Phylomatic (proportion of internal nodes resolved: constrained ML = 74%, unconstrained ML = 68%, Phylomatic = 52%). We quantified the phylogenetic composition of 15 protected forests in Puerto Rico using the constrained ML and Phylomatic phylogenies. We found some evidence that tree communities in areas of high water stress were relatively phylogenetically clustered. Reducing the scale at which the species pool was defined (from island to soil types) changed some of our results depending on which phylogeny (ML vs. Phylomatic) was used. Overall, the increased terminal resolution provided by the ML phylogeny revealed additional patterns that were not observed with a less-resolved phylogeny. With the DNA barcode phylogeny presented here (based on an island-wide species pool), we show that a more fully resolved phylogeny increases power to detect nonrandom patterns of community composition in several Puerto Rican tree communities. Especially if combined with additional information on species functional traits and geographic distributions, this phylogeny will (i) facilitate stronger inferences about the role of historical processes in governing the assembly and composition of Puerto Rican forests, (ii) provide insight into Caribbean biogeography, and (iii) aid in incorporating evolutionary history into conservation planning.

Phylodynamic Inference with Kernel ABC and Its Application to HIV Epidemiology.

PubMed

Poon, Art F Y

2015-09-01

The shapes of phylogenetic trees relating virus populations are determined by the adaptation of viruses within each host, and by the transmission of viruses among hosts. Phylodynamic inference attempts to reverse this flow of information, estimating parameters of these processes from the shape of a virus phylogeny reconstructed from a sample of genetic sequences from the epidemic. A key challenge to phylodynamic inference is quantifying the similarity between two trees in an efficient and comprehensive way. In this study, I demonstrate that a new distance measure, based on a subset tree kernel function from computational linguistics, confers a significant improvement over previous measures of tree shape for classifying trees generated under different epidemiological scenarios. Next, I incorporate this kernel-based distance measure into an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework for phylodynamic inference. ABC bypasses the need for an analytical solution of model likelihood, as it only requires the ability to simulate data from the model. I validate this "kernel-ABC" method for phylodynamic inference by estimating parameters from data simulated under a simple epidemiological model. Results indicate that kernel-ABC attained greater accuracy for parameters associated with virus transmission than leading software on the same data sets. Finally, I apply the kernel-ABC framework to study a recent outbreak of a recombinant HIV subtype in China. Kernel-ABC provides a versatile framework for phylodynamic inference because it can fit a broader range of models than methods that rely on the computation of exact likelihoods. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

A modular approach for item response theory modeling with the R package flirt.

PubMed

Jeon, Minjeong; Rijmen, Frank

2016-06-01

The new R package flirt is introduced for flexible item response theory (IRT) modeling of psychological, educational, and behavior assessment data. flirt integrates a generalized linear and nonlinear mixed modeling framework with graphical model theory. The graphical model framework allows for efficient maximum likelihood estimation. The key feature of flirt is its modular approach to facilitate convenient and flexible model specifications. Researchers can construct customized IRT models by simply selecting various modeling modules, such as parametric forms, number of dimensions, item and person covariates, person groups, link functions, etc. In this paper, we describe major features of flirt and provide examples to illustrate how flirt works in practice.

Adjusting for overdispersion in piecewise exponential regression models to estimate excess mortality rate in population-based research.

PubMed

Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Belot, Aurélien; Quaresma, Manuela; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P; Rachet, Bernard

2016-10-01

In population-based cancer research, piecewise exponential regression models are used to derive adjusted estimates of excess mortality due to cancer using the Poisson generalized linear modelling framework. However, the assumption that the conditional mean and variance of the rate parameter given the set of covariates x i are equal is strong and may fail to account for overdispersion given the variability of the rate parameter (the variance exceeds the mean). Using an empirical example, we aimed to describe simple methods to test and correct for overdispersion. We used a regression-based score test for overdispersion under the relative survival framework and proposed different approaches to correct for overdispersion including a quasi-likelihood, robust standard errors estimation, negative binomial regression and flexible piecewise modelling. All piecewise exponential regression models showed the presence of significant inherent overdispersion (p-value <0.001). However, the flexible piecewise exponential model showed the smallest overdispersion parameter (3.2 versus 21.3) for non-flexible piecewise exponential models. We showed that there were no major differences between methods. However, using a flexible piecewise regression modelling, with either a quasi-likelihood or robust standard errors, was the best approach as it deals with both, overdispersion due to model misspecification and true or inherent overdispersion.

STAR-GALAXY CLASSIFICATION IN MULTI-BAND OPTICAL IMAGING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fadely, Ross; Willman, Beth; Hogg, David W.

2012-11-20

Ground-based optical surveys such as PanSTARRS, DES, and LSST will produce large catalogs to limiting magnitudes of r {approx}> 24. Star-galaxy separation poses a major challenge to such surveys because galaxies-even very compact galaxies-outnumber halo stars at these depths. We investigate photometric classification techniques on stars and galaxies with intrinsic FWHM <0.2 arcsec. We consider unsupervised spectral energy distribution template fitting and supervised, data-driven support vector machines (SVMs). For template fitting, we use a maximum likelihood (ML) method and a new hierarchical Bayesian (HB) method, which learns the prior distribution of template probabilities from the data. SVM requires training datamore » to classify unknown sources; ML and HB do not. We consider (1) a best-case scenario (SVM{sub best}) where the training data are (unrealistically) a random sampling of the data in both signal-to-noise and demographics and (2) a more realistic scenario where training is done on higher signal-to-noise data (SVM{sub real}) at brighter apparent magnitudes. Testing with COSMOS ugriz data, we find that HB outperforms ML, delivering {approx}80% completeness, with purity of {approx}60%-90% for both stars and galaxies. We find that no algorithm delivers perfect performance and that studies of metal-poor main-sequence turnoff stars may be challenged by poor star-galaxy separation. Using the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, we find a best-to-worst ranking of SVM{sub best}, HB, ML, and SVM{sub real}. We conclude, therefore, that a well-trained SVM will outperform template-fitting methods. However, a normally trained SVM performs worse. Thus, HB template fitting may prove to be the optimal classification method in future surveys.« less

[Cord blood procalcitonin in the assessment of early-onset neonatal sepsis].

PubMed

Oria de Rueda Salguero, Olivia; Beceiro Mosquera, José; Barrionuevo González, Marta; Ripalda Crespo, María Jesús; Olivas López de Soria, Cristina

2017-08-01

Early diagnosis of early-onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) is essential to reduce morbidity and mortality. Procalcitonin (PCT) in cord blood could provide a diagnosis of infected patients from birth. To study the usefulness and safety of a procedure for the evaluation of newborns at risk of EONS, based on the determination of PCT in cord blood. Neonates with infectious risk factors, born in our hospital from October 2013 to January 2015 were included. They were processed according to an algorithm based on the values of cord blood procalcitonin (< 0.6ng/ml versus ≥0.6ng/ml). They were later classified as proved infection, probable, or no infection. Of the 2,519 infants born in the study period, 136 met inclusion criteria. None of 120 cases with PCT<0.6ng/ml in cord blood developed EONS (100% negative predictive value). On the other hand, of the 16 cases with PCT ≥0.6ng/ml, 10 were proven or probably infected (62.5% positive predictive value). The sensitivity of the PCT against infection was 100%, with a specificity of 95.2% (area under the receiver operator curve 0.969). The incidence of infection in the study group was 7.4%, and 26.1% in cases with maternal chorioamnionitis. 21 newborn (15.4%) received antibiotic therapy. The studied protocol has shown to be effective and safe to differentiate between patients with increased risk of developing an EONS, in those where the diagnostic and therapeutic approach was more interventionist, versus those with less likelihood of sepsis, who would benefit from a more conservative management. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

PubMed

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

The simple rules of social contagion.

PubMed

Hodas, Nathan O; Lerman, Kristina

2014-03-11

It is commonly believed that information spreads between individuals like a pathogen, with each exposure by an informed friend potentially resulting in a naive individual becoming infected. However, empirical studies of social media suggest that individual response to repeated exposure to information is far more complex. As a proxy for intervention experiments, we compare user responses to multiple exposures on two different social media sites, Twitter and Digg. We show that the position of exposing messages on the user-interface strongly affects social contagion. Accounting for this visibility significantly simplifies the dynamics of social contagion. The likelihood an individual will spread information increases monotonically with exposure, while explicit feedback about how many friends have previously spread it increases the likelihood of a response. We provide a framework for unifying information visibility, divided attention, and explicit social feedback to predict the temporal dynamics of user behavior.

The Simple Rules of Social Contagion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodas, Nathan O.; Lerman, Kristina

2014-03-01

It is commonly believed that information spreads between individuals like a pathogen, with each exposure by an informed friend potentially resulting in a naive individual becoming infected. However, empirical studies of social media suggest that individual response to repeated exposure to information is far more complex. As a proxy for intervention experiments, we compare user responses to multiple exposures on two different social media sites, Twitter and Digg. We show that the position of exposing messages on the user-interface strongly affects social contagion. Accounting for this visibility significantly simplifies the dynamics of social contagion. The likelihood an individual will spread information increases monotonically with exposure, while explicit feedback about how many friends have previously spread it increases the likelihood of a response. We provide a framework for unifying information visibility, divided attention, and explicit social feedback to predict the temporal dynamics of user behavior.

Partial Nephrectomy Versus Radical Nephrectomy for Clinical T1b and T2 Renal Tumors: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Comparative Studies.

PubMed

Mir, Maria Carmen; Derweesh, Ithaar; Porpiglia, Francesco; Zargar, Homayoun; Mottrie, Alexandre; Autorino, Riccardo

2017-04-01

Partial nephrectomy (PN) is the reference standard of management for a cT1a renal mass. However, its role in the management of larger tumors (cT1b and cT2) is still under scrutiny. To conduct a meta-analysis assessing functional, oncologic, and perioperative outcomes of PN and radical nephrectomy (RN) in the specific case of larger renal tumors (≥cT1b). The primary endpoint was an overall analysis of cT1b and cT2 masses. The secondary endpoint was a sensitivity analysis for cT2 only. A systematic literature review was performed up to December 2015 using multiple search engines to identify eligible comparative studies. A formal meta-analysis was performed for studies comparing PN to RN for both cT1b and cT2 tumors. In addition, a sensitivity analysis including the subgroup of studies comparing PN to RN for cT2 only was conducted. Pooled estimates were calculated using a fixed-effects model if no significant heterogeneity was identified; alternatively, a random-effects model was used when significant heterogeneity was detected. For continuous outcomes, the weighted mean difference (WMD) was used as summary measure. For binary variables, the odds ratio (OR) or risk ratio (RR) was calculated with 95% confidence interval (CI). Statistical analyses were performed using Review Manager 5 (Cochrane Collaboration, Oxford, UK). Overall, 21 case-control studies including 11204 patients (RN 8620; PN 2584) were deemed eligible and included in the analysis. Patients undergoing PN were younger (WMD -2.3 yr; p<0.001) and had smaller masses (WMD -0.65cm; p<0.001). Lower estimated blood loss was found for RN (WMD 102.6ml; p<0.001). There was a higher likelihood of postoperative complications for PN (RR 1.74, 95% CI 1.34-2.2; p<0.001). Pathology revealed a higher rate of malignant histology for the RN group (RR 0.97; p=0.02). PN was associated with better postoperative renal function, as shown by higher postoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; WMD 12.4ml/min; p<0.001), lower likelihood of postoperative onset of chronic kidney disease (RR 0.36; p<0.001), and lower decline in eGFR (WMD -8.6ml/min; p<0.001). The PN group had a lower likelihood of tumor recurrence (OR 0.6; p<0.001), cancer-specific mortality (OR 0.58; p=0.001), and all-cause mortality (OR 0.67; p=0.005). Four studies compared PN (n=212) to RN (n=1792) in the specific case of T2 tumors (>7cm). In this subset of patients, the estimated blood loss was higher for PN (WMD 107.6ml; p<0.001), as was the likelihood of complications (RR 2.0; p<0.001). Both the recurrence rate (RR 0.61; p=0.004) and cancer-specific mortality (RR 0.65; p=0.03) were lower for PN. PN is a viable treatment option for larger renal tumors, as it offers acceptable surgical morbidity, equivalent cancer control, and better preservation of renal function, with potential for better long-term survival. For T2 tumors, PN use should be more selective, and specific patient and tumor factors should be considered. Further investigation, ideally in a prospective randomized fashion, is warranted to better define the role of PN in this challenging clinical scenario. We performed a cumulative analysis of the literature to determine the best treatment option in cases of localized kidney tumor of higher clinical stage (T1b and T2, as based on preoperative imaging). Our findings suggest that removing only the tumor and saving the kidney might be an effective treatment modality in terms of cancer control, with the advantage of preserving the kidney function. However, a higher risk of perioperative complications should be taken into account when facing larger tumors (clinical stage T2) with kidney-sparing surgery. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards a practical framework for managing the risks of selecting technology to support independent living.

PubMed

Monk, Andrew; Hone, Kate; Lines, Lorna; Dowdall, Alan; Baxter, Gordon; Blythe, Mark; Wright, Peter

2006-09-01

Information and communication technology applications can help increase the independence and quality of life of older people, or people with disabilities who live in their own homes. A risk management framework is proposed to assist in selecting applications that match the needs and wishes of particular individuals. Risk comprises two components: the likelihood of the occurrence of harm and the consequences of that harm. In the home, the social and psychological harms are as important as the physical ones. The importance of the harm (e.g., injury) is conditioned by its consequences (e.g., distress, costly medical treatment). We identify six generic types of harm (including dependency, loneliness, fear and debt) and four generic consequences (including distress and loss of confidence in ability to live independently). The resultant client-centred framework offers a systematic basis for selecting and evaluating technology for independent living.

Private or public? An empirical analysis of the importance of work values for work sector choice among Norwegian medical specialists.

PubMed

Midttun, Linda

2007-03-01

In the aftermath of the Norwegian hospital reform of 2002, the private supply of specialized healthcare has increased substantially. This article analyses the likelihood of medical specialists working in the private sector. Sector choice is operationalized in two ways: first, as the likelihood of medical specialists working in the private sector at all (at least 1% of the total work hours), and second, as the likelihood of working full-time (90-100%) privately. The theoretical framework is embedded in work values theory and the results suggest that work values are important predictors of sector choice. All analyses are based on a postal questionnaire survey of medical specialists working in private contract practices and for-profit hospitals and a control group of specialists selected from the Norwegian Medical Association's member register. The analyses revealed that while autonomy values impact positively on the propensity for allocating any time at all to the private sector, professional values have a negative effect. Given that the medical specialist already works in the private sector, a high valuation of professional values and payment and benefit values increases the likelihood of having a dual sector job rather than a full-time private position. However, due to the cross-sectional structure of the data and limitations in the dataset, causality questions cannot be fully settled on the basis of the analyses. The relationship between work values and sector choice should, therefore, be regarded as associations rather than causality links. Finally, the likelihood of working in the private sector varies significantly at the municipality level, suggesting that medical specialist's location is important for sector choice.

A Hierarchical Approach to Examine Personal and School Effect on Teacher Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wei, Yi-En

2012-01-01

In order to depict a better picture of teacher motivation, the researcher developed the theoretical framework based on Deci and Ryan's (1985) self-determination theory (SDT) and examined factors affecting teachers' autonomous motivation at both the personal and school level. Several multilevel structural equation models (ML-SEM) were…

Data-driven simultaneous fault diagnosis for solid oxide fuel cell system using multi-label pattern identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuanghong; Cao, Hongliang; Yang, Yupu

2018-02-01

Fault diagnosis is a key process for the reliability and safety of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems. However, it is difficult to rapidly and accurately identify faults for complicated SOFC systems, especially when simultaneous faults appear. In this research, a data-driven Multi-Label (ML) pattern identification approach is proposed to address the simultaneous fault diagnosis of SOFC systems. The framework of the simultaneous-fault diagnosis primarily includes two components: feature extraction and ML-SVM classifier. The simultaneous-fault diagnosis approach can be trained to diagnose simultaneous SOFC faults, such as fuel leakage, air leakage in different positions in the SOFC system, by just using simple training data sets consisting only single fault and not demanding simultaneous faults data. The experimental result shows the proposed framework can diagnose the simultaneous SOFC system faults with high accuracy requiring small number training data and low computational burden. In addition, Fault Inference Tree Analysis (FITA) is employed to identify the correlations among possible faults and their corresponding symptoms at the system component level.

Survival Data and Regression Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grégoire, G.

2014-12-01

We start this chapter by introducing some basic elements for the analysis of censored survival data. Then we focus on right censored data and develop two types of regression models. The first one concerns the so-called accelerated failure time models (AFT), which are parametric models where a function of a parameter depends linearly on the covariables. The second one is a semiparametric model, where the covariables enter in a multiplicative form in the expression of the hazard rate function. The main statistical tool for analysing these regression models is the maximum likelihood methodology and, in spite we recall some essential results about the ML theory, we refer to the chapter "Logistic Regression" for a more detailed presentation.

Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus Outbreak Investigation: Application of the FAO-OIE-WHO Four-way Linking Framework in Indonesia.

PubMed

Setiawaty, V; Dharmayanti, N L P I; Misriyah; Pawestri, H A; Azhar, M; Tallis, G; Schoonman, L; Samaan, G

2015-08-01

WHO, FAO and OIE developed a 'four-way linking' framework to enhance the cross-sectoral sharing of epidemiological and virological information in responding to zoonotic disease outbreaks. In Indonesia, outbreak response challenges include completeness of data shared between human and animal health authorities. The four-way linking framework (human health laboratory/epidemiology and animal health laboratory/epidemiology) was applied in the investigation of the 193 rd human case of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection. As recommended by the framework, outbreak investigation and risk assessment findings were shared. On 18 June 2013, a hospital in West Java Province reported a suspect H5N1 case in a 2-year-old male. The case was laboratory-confirmed that evening, and the information was immediately shared with the Ministry of Agriculture. The human health epidemiology/laboratory team investigated the outbreak and conducted an initial risk assessment on 19 June. The likelihood of secondary cases was deemed low as none of the case contacts were sick. By 3 July, no secondary cases associated with the outbreak were identified. The animal health epidemiology/laboratory investigation was conducted on 19-25 June and found that a live bird market visited by the case was positive for H5N1 virus. Once both human and market virus isolates were sequenced, a second risk assessment was conducted jointly by the human health and animal health epidemiology/laboratory teams. This assessment concluded that the likelihood of additional human cases associated with this outbreak was low but that future sporadic human infections could not be ruled out because of challenges in controlling H5N1 virus contamination in markets. Findings from the outbreak investigation and risk assessments were shared with stakeholders at both Ministries. The four-way linking framework clarified the type of data to be shared. Both human health and animal health teams made ample data available, and there was cooperation to achieve risk assessment objectives. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Awareness, adoption, and application of the Association of College & Research Libraries (ACRL) Framework for Information Literacy in health sciences libraries.

PubMed

Schulte, Stephanie J; Knapp, Maureen

2017-10-01

In early 2016, the Association of College & Research Libraries (ACRL) officially adopted a conceptual Framework for Information Literacy (Framework) that was a significant shift away from the previous standards-based approach. This study sought to determine (1) if health sciences librarians are aware of the recent Framework for Information Literacy; (2) if they have used the Framework to change their instruction or communication with faculty, and if so, what changes have taken place; and (3) if certain librarian characteristics are associated with the likelihood of adopting the Framework. This study utilized a descriptive electronic survey. Half of all respondents were aware of and were using or had plans to use the Framework. Academic health sciences librarians and general academic librarians were more likely than hospital librarians to be aware of the Framework. Those using the Framework were mostly revising and creating content, revising their teaching approach, and learning more about the Framework. Framework users commented that it was influencing how they thought about and discussed information literacy with faculty and students. Most hospital librarians and half the academic health sciences librarians were not using and had no plans to use the Framework. Librarians with more than twenty years of experience were less likely to be aware of the Framework and more likely to have no plans to use it. Common reasons for not using the Framework were lack of awareness of a new version and lack of involvement in formal instruction. The results suggest that there is room to improve awareness and application of the Framework among health sciences librarians.

Awareness, adoption, and application of the Association of College & Research Libraries (ACRL) Framework for Information Literacy in health sciences libraries*

PubMed Central

Schulte, Stephanie J.; Knapp, Maureen

2017-01-01

Objective: In early 2016, the Association of College & Research Libraries (ACRL) officially adopted a conceptual Framework for Information Literacy (Framework) that was a significant shift away from the previous standards-based approach. This study sought to determine (1) if health sciences librarians are aware of the recent Framework for Information Literacy; (2) if they have used the Framework to change their instruction or communication with faculty, and if so, what changes have taken place; and (3) if certain librarian characteristics are associated with the likelihood of adopting the Framework. Methods: This study utilized a descriptive electronic survey. Results: Half of all respondents were aware of and were using or had plans to use the Framework. Academic health sciences librarians and general academic librarians were more likely than hospital librarians to be aware of the Framework. Those using the Framework were mostly revising and creating content, revising their teaching approach, and learning more about the Framework. Framework users commented that it was influencing how they thought about and discussed information literacy with faculty and students. Most hospital librarians and half the academic health sciences librarians were not using and had no plans to use the Framework. Librarians with more than twenty years of experience were less likely to be aware of the Framework and more likely to have no plans to use it. Common reasons for not using the Framework were lack of awareness of a new version and lack of involvement in formal instruction. Conclusion: The results suggest that there is room to improve awareness and application of the Framework among health sciences librarians. PMID:28983198

Phylogenetic evidence for cladogenetic polyploidization in land plants.

PubMed

Zhan, Shing H; Drori, Michal; Goldberg, Emma E; Otto, Sarah P; Mayrose, Itay

2016-07-01

Polyploidization is a common and recurring phenomenon in plants and is often thought to be a mechanism of "instant speciation". Whether polyploidization is associated with the formation of new species (cladogenesis) or simply occurs over time within a lineage (anagenesis), however, has never been assessed systematically. We tested this hypothesis using phylogenetic and karyotypic information from 235 plant genera (mostly angiosperms). We first constructed a large database of combined sequence and chromosome number data sets using an automated procedure. We then applied likelihood models (ClaSSE) that estimate the degree of synchronization between polyploidization and speciation events in maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. Our maximum likelihood analysis indicated that 35 genera supported a model that includes cladogenetic transitions over a model with only anagenetic transitions, whereas three genera supported a model that incorporates anagenetic transitions over one with only cladogenetic transitions. Furthermore, the Bayesian analysis supported a preponderance of cladogenetic change in four genera but did not support a preponderance of anagenetic change in any genus. Overall, these phylogenetic analyses provide the first broad confirmation that polyploidization is temporally associated with speciation events, suggesting that it is indeed a major speciation mechanism in plants, at least in some genera. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Intelligent earthquake data processing for global adjoint tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Hill, J.; Li, T.; Lei, W.; Ruan, Y.; Lefebvre, M. P.; Tromp, J.

2016-12-01

Due to the increased computational capability afforded by modern and future computing architectures, the seismology community is demanding a more comprehensive understanding of the full waveform information from the recorded earthquake seismograms. Global waveform tomography is a complex workflow that matches observed seismic data with synthesized seismograms by iteratively updating the earth model parameters based on the adjoint state method. This methodology allows us to compute a very accurate model of the earth's interior. The synthetic data is simulated by solving the wave equation in the entire globe using a spectral-element method. In order to ensure the inversion accuracy and stability, both the synthesized and observed seismograms must be carefully pre-processed. Because the scale of the inversion problem is extremely large and there is a very large volume of data to both be read and written, an efficient and reliable pre-processing workflow must be developed. We are investigating intelligent algorithms based on a machine-learning (ML) framework that will automatically tune parameters for the data processing chain. One straightforward application of ML in data processing is to classify all possible misfit calculation windows into usable and unusable ones, based on some intelligent ML models such as neural network, support vector machine or principle component analysis. The intelligent earthquake data processing framework will enable the seismology community to compute the global waveform tomography using seismic data from an arbitrarily large number of earthquake events in the fastest, most efficient way.

A New Online Calibration Method Based on Lord's Bias-Correction.

PubMed

He, Yinhong; Chen, Ping; Li, Yong; Zhang, Shumei

2017-09-01

Online calibration technique has been widely employed to calibrate new items due to its advantages. Method A is the simplest online calibration method and has attracted many attentions from researchers recently. However, a key assumption of Method A is that it treats person-parameter estimates θ ^ s (obtained by maximum likelihood estimation [MLE]) as their true values θ s , thus the deviation of the estimated θ ^ s from their true values might yield inaccurate item calibration when the deviation is nonignorable. To improve the performance of Method A, a new method, MLE-LBCI-Method A, is proposed. This new method combines a modified Lord's bias-correction method (named as maximum likelihood estimation-Lord's bias-correction with iteration [MLE-LBCI]) with the original Method A in an effort to correct the deviation of θ ^ s which may adversely affect the item calibration precision. Two simulation studies were carried out to explore the performance of both MLE-LBCI and MLE-LBCI-Method A under several scenarios. Simulation results showed that MLE-LBCI could make a significant improvement over the ML ability estimates, and MLE-LBCI-Method A did outperform Method A in almost all experimental conditions.

Joint Maximum Likelihood Time Delay Estimation of Unknown Event-Related Potential Signals for EEG Sensor Signal Quality Enhancement

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyungsoo; Lim, Sung-Ho; Lee, Jaeseok; Kang, Won-Seok; Moon, Cheil; Choi, Ji-Woong

2016-01-01

Electroencephalograms (EEGs) measure a brain signal that contains abundant information about the human brain function and health. For this reason, recent clinical brain research and brain computer interface (BCI) studies use EEG signals in many applications. Due to the significant noise in EEG traces, signal processing to enhance the signal to noise power ratio (SNR) is necessary for EEG analysis, especially for non-invasive EEG. A typical method to improve the SNR is averaging many trials of event related potential (ERP) signal that represents a brain’s response to a particular stimulus or a task. The averaging, however, is very sensitive to variable delays. In this study, we propose two time delay estimation (TDE) schemes based on a joint maximum likelihood (ML) criterion to compensate the uncertain delays which may be different in each trial. We evaluate the performance for different types of signals such as random, deterministic, and real EEG signals. The results show that the proposed schemes provide better performance than other conventional schemes employing averaged signal as a reference, e.g., up to 4 dB gain at the expected delay error of 10°. PMID:27322267

ART-ML: a new markup language for modelling and representation of biological processes in cardiovascular diseases.

PubMed

Karvounis, E C; Exarchos, T P; Fotiou, E; Sakellarios, A I; Iliopoulou, D; Koutsouris, D; Fotiadis, D I

2013-01-01

With an ever increasing number of biological models available on the internet, a standardized modelling framework is required to allow information to be accessed and visualized. In this paper we propose a novel Extensible Markup Language (XML) based format called ART-ML that aims at supporting the interoperability and the reuse of models of geometry, blood flow, plaque progression and stent modelling, exported by any cardiovascular disease modelling software. ART-ML has been developed and tested using ARTool. ARTool is a platform for the automatic processing of various image modalities of coronary and carotid arteries. The images and their content are fused to develop morphological models of the arteries in 3D representations. All the above described procedures integrate disparate data formats, protocols and tools. ART-ML proposes a representation way, expanding ARTool, for interpretability of the individual resources, creating a standard unified model for the description of data and, consequently, a format for their exchange and representation that is machine independent. More specifically, ARTool platform incorporates efficient algorithms which are able to perform blood flow simulations and atherosclerotic plaque evolution modelling. Integration of data layers between different modules within ARTool are based upon the interchange of information included in the ART-ML model repository. ART-ML provides a markup representation that enables the representation and management of embedded models within the cardiovascular disease modelling platform, the storage and interchange of well-defined information. The corresponding ART-ML model incorporates all relevant information regarding geometry, blood flow, plaque progression and stent modelling procedures. All created models are stored in a model repository database which is accessible to the research community using efficient web interfaces, enabling the interoperability of any cardiovascular disease modelling software models. ART-ML can be used as a reference ML model in multiscale simulations of plaque formation and progression, incorporating all scales of the biological processes.

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Profiling tumour heterogeneity through circulating tumour DNA in patients with pancreatic cancer

PubMed Central

Neal, Christopher P; Mistry, Vilas; Page, Karen; Dennison, Ashley R; Isherwood, John; Hastings, Robert; Luo, JinLi; Moore, David A; Howard, Pringle J; Miguel, Martins L; Pritchard, Catrin; Manson, Margaret; Shaw, Jacqui A

2017-01-01

The majority of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAC) are diagnosed late so that surgery is rarely curative. Earlier detection could significantly increase the likelihood of successful treatment and improve survival. The aim of the study was to provide proof of principle that point mutations in key cancer genes can be identified by sequencing circulating free DNA (cfDNA) and that this could be used to detect early PDACs and potentially, premalignant lesions, to help target early effective treatment. Targeted next generation sequencing (tNGS) analysis of mutation hotspots in 50 cancer genes was conducted in 26 patients with PDAC, 14 patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) and 12 healthy controls with KRAS status validated by digital droplet PCR. A higher median level of total cfDNA was observed in patients with PDAC (585 ng/ml) compared to either patients with CP (300 ng/ml) or healthy controls (175 ng/ml). PDAC tissue showed wide mutational heterogeneity, whereas KRAS was the most commonly mutated gene in cfDNA of patients with PDAC and was significantly associated with a poor disease specific survival (p=0.018). This study demonstrates that tNGS of cfDNA is feasible to characterise the circulating genomic profile in PDAC and that driver mutations in KRAS have prognostic value but cannot currently be used to detect early emergence of disease. Importantly, monitoring total cfDNA levels may have utility in individuals “at risk” and warrants further investigation. PMID:29152076

Efficient design and inference for multistage randomized trials of individualized treatment policies.

PubMed

Dawson, Ree; Lavori, Philip W

2012-01-01

Clinical demand for individualized "adaptive" treatment policies in diverse fields has spawned development of clinical trial methodology for their experimental evaluation via multistage designs, building upon methods intended for the analysis of naturalistically observed strategies. Because often there is no need to parametrically smooth multistage trial data (in contrast to observational data for adaptive strategies), it is possible to establish direct connections among different methodological approaches. We show by algebraic proof that the maximum likelihood (ML) and optimal semiparametric (SP) estimators of the population mean of the outcome of a treatment policy and its standard error are equal under certain experimental conditions. This result is used to develop a unified and efficient approach to design and inference for multistage trials of policies that adapt treatment according to discrete responses. We derive a sample size formula expressed in terms of a parametric version of the optimal SP population variance. Nonparametric (sample-based) ML estimation performed well in simulation studies, in terms of achieved power, for scenarios most likely to occur in real studies, even though sample sizes were based on the parametric formula. ML outperformed the SP estimator; differences in achieved power predominately reflected differences in their estimates of the population mean (rather than estimated standard errors). Neither methodology could mitigate the potential for overestimated sample sizes when strong nonlinearity was purposely simulated for certain discrete outcomes; however, such departures from linearity may not be an issue for many clinical contexts that make evaluation of competitive treatment policies meaningful.

A Detailed History of Intron-rich Eukaryotic Ancestors Inferred from a Global Survey of 100 Complete Genomes

PubMed Central

Csuros, Miklos; Rogozin, Igor B.; Koonin, Eugene V.

2011-01-01

Protein-coding genes in eukaryotes are interrupted by introns, but intron densities widely differ between eukaryotic lineages. Vertebrates, some invertebrates and green plants have intron-rich genes, with 6–7 introns per kilobase of coding sequence, whereas most of the other eukaryotes have intron-poor genes. We reconstructed the history of intron gain and loss using a probabilistic Markov model (Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC) on 245 orthologous genes from 99 genomes representing the three of the five supergroups of eukaryotes for which multiple genome sequences are available. Intron-rich ancestors are confidently reconstructed for each major group, with 53 to 74% of the human intron density inferred with 95% confidence for the Last Eukaryotic Common Ancestor (LECA). The results of the MCMC reconstruction are compared with the reconstructions obtained using Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Dollo parsimony methods. An excellent agreement between the MCMC and ML inferences is demonstrated whereas Dollo parsimony introduces a noticeable bias in the estimations, typically yielding lower ancestral intron densities than MCMC and ML. Evolution of eukaryotic genes was dominated by intron loss, with substantial gain only at the bases of several major branches including plants and animals. The highest intron density, 120 to 130% of the human value, is inferred for the last common ancestor of animals. The reconstruction shows that the entire line of descent from LECA to mammals was intron-rich, a state conducive to the evolution of alternative splicing. PMID:21935348

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity I. A simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

The stationarity of annual flood peak records is the traditional assumption of flood frequency analysis. In some cases, however, as a result of land-use and/or climate change, this assumption is no longer valid. Therefore, new statistical models are needed to capture dynamically the change of probability density functions over time, in order to obtain reliable flood estimation. In this study, an innovative method for nonstationary flood frequency analysis was presented. Here, the new method is based on detrending the flood series and applying the L-moments along with the GEV distribution to the transformed ;stationary; series (hereafter, this is called the LM-NS). The LM-NS method was assessed through a comparative study with the maximum likelihood (ML) method for the nonstationary GEV model, as well as with the stationary (S) GEV model. The comparative study, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was carried out for three nonstationary GEV models: a linear dependence of the mean on time (GEV1), a quadratic dependence of the mean on time (GEV2), and linear dependence in both the mean and log standard deviation on time (GEV11). The simulation results indicated that the LM-NS method performs better than the ML method for most of the cases studied, whereas the stationary method provides the least accurate results. An additional advantage of the LM-NS method is to avoid the numerical problems (e.g., convergence problems) that may occur with the ML method when estimating parameters for small data samples.

Isoflurane minimum alveolar concentration reduction by fentanyl.

PubMed

McEwan, A I; Smith, C; Dyar, O; Goodman, D; Smith, L R; Glass, P S

1993-05-01

Isoflurane is commonly combined with fentanyl during anesthesia. Because of hysteresis between plasma and effect site, bolus administration of fentanyl does not accurately describe the interaction between these drugs. The purpose of this study was to determine the MAC reduction of isoflurane by fentanyl when both drugs had reached steady biophase concentrations. Seventy-seven patients were randomly allocated to receive either no fentanyl or fentanyl at several predetermined plasma concentrations. Fentanyl was administered using a computer-assisted continuous infusion device. Patients were also randomly allocated to receive a predetermined steady state end-tidal concentration of isoflurane. Blood samples for fentanyl concentration were taken at 10 min after initiation of the infusion and before and immediately after skin incision. A minimum of 20 min was allowed between the start of the fentanyl infusion and skin incision. The reduction in the MAC of isoflurane by the measured fentanyl concentration was calculated using a maximum likelihood solution to a logistic regression model. There was an initial steep reduction in the MAC of isoflurane by fentanyl, with 3 ng/ml resulting in a 63% MAC reduction. A ceiling effect was observed with 10 ng/ml providing only a further 19% reduction in MAC. A 50% decrease in MAC was produced by a fentanyl concentration of 1.67 ng/ml. Defining the MAC reduction of isoflurane by all the opioids allows their more rational administration with inhalational anesthetics and provides a comparison of their relative anesthetic potencies.

Interpolation between spatial frameworks: an application of process convolution to estimating neighbourhood disease prevalence.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2014-04-01

Health data may be collected across one spatial framework (e.g. health provider agencies), but contrasts in health over another spatial framework (neighbourhoods) may be of policy interest. In the UK, population prevalence totals for chronic diseases are provided for populations served by general practitioner practices, but not for neighbourhoods (small areas of circa 1500 people), raising the question whether data for one framework can be used to provide spatially interpolated estimates of disease prevalence for the other. A discrete process convolution is applied to this end and has advantages when there are a relatively large number of area units in one or other framework. Additionally, the interpolation is modified to take account of the observed neighbourhood indicators (e.g. hospitalisation rates) of neighbourhood disease prevalence. These are reflective indicators of neighbourhood prevalence viewed as a latent construct. An illustrative application is to prevalence of psychosis in northeast London, containing 190 general practitioner practices and 562 neighbourhoods, including an assessment of sensitivity to kernel choice (e.g. normal vs exponential). This application illustrates how a zero-inflated Poisson can be used as the likelihood model for a reflective indicator.

A framework for the implementation of new radiation therapy technologies and treatment techniques in low-income countries.

PubMed

Brown, Derek W; Shulman, Adam; Hudson, Alana; Smith, Wendy; Fisher, Brandon; Hollon, Jon; Pipman, Yakov; Van Dyk, Jacob; Einck, John

2014-11-01

We present a practical, generic, easy-to-use framework for the implementation of new radiation therapy technologies and treatment techniques in low-income countries. The framework is intended to standardize the implementation process, reduce the effort involved in generating an implementation strategy, and provide improved patient safety by reducing the likelihood that steps are missed during the implementation process. The 10 steps in the framework provide a practical approach to implementation. The steps are, 1) Site and resource assessment, 2) Evaluation of equipment and funding, 3) Establishing timelines, 4) Defining the treatment process, 5) Equipment commissioning, 6) Training and competency assessment, 7) Prospective risk analysis, 8) System testing, 9) External dosimetric audit and incident learning, and 10) Support and follow-up. For each step, practical advice for completing the step is provided, as well as links to helpful supplementary material. An associated checklist is provided that can be used to track progress through the steps in the framework. While the emphasis of this paper is on addressing the needs of low-income countries, the concepts also apply in high-income countries. Copyright © 2014 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Vincent Y. S.; Arhonditsis, George B.; Sills, David M. L.; Gough, William A.; Auld, Heather

2015-03-01

Tornadoes represent one of nature’s most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America.

PubMed

Cheng, Vincent Y S; Arhonditsis, George B; Sills, David M L; Gough, William A; Auld, Heather

2015-03-25

Tornadoes represent one of nature's most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

Genetic mixed linear models for twin survival data.

PubMed

Ha, Il Do; Lee, Youngjo; Pawitan, Yudi

2007-07-01

Twin studies are useful for assessing the relative importance of genetic or heritable component from the environmental component. In this paper we develop a methodology to study the heritability of age-at-onset or lifespan traits, with application to analysis of twin survival data. Due to limited period of observation, the data can be left truncated and right censored (LTRC). Under the LTRC setting we propose a genetic mixed linear model, which allows general fixed predictors and random components to capture genetic and environmental effects. Inferences are based upon the hierarchical-likelihood (h-likelihood), which provides a statistically efficient and unified framework for various mixed-effect models. We also propose a simple and fast computation method for dealing with large data sets. The method is illustrated by the survival data from the Swedish Twin Registry. Finally, a simulation study is carried out to evaluate its performance.

The Simple Rules of Social Contagion

PubMed Central

Hodas, Nathan O.; Lerman, Kristina

2014-01-01

It is commonly believed that information spreads between individuals like a pathogen, with each exposure by an informed friend potentially resulting in a naive individual becoming infected. However, empirical studies of social media suggest that individual response to repeated exposure to information is far more complex. As a proxy for intervention experiments, we compare user responses to multiple exposures on two different social media sites, Twitter and Digg. We show that the position of exposing messages on the user-interface strongly affects social contagion. Accounting for this visibility significantly simplifies the dynamics of social contagion. The likelihood an individual will spread information increases monotonically with exposure, while explicit feedback about how many friends have previously spread it increases the likelihood of a response. We provide a framework for unifying information visibility, divided attention, and explicit social feedback to predict the temporal dynamics of user behavior. PMID:24614301

Bayesian framework for the evaluation of fiber evidence in a double murder--a case report.

PubMed

Causin, Valerio; Schiavone, Sergio; Marigo, Antonio; Carresi, Pietro

2004-05-10

Fiber evidence found on a suspect vehicle was the only useful trace to reconstruct the dynamics of the transportation of two corpses. Optical microscopy, UV-Vis microspectrophotometry and infrared analysis were employed to compare fibers recovered in the trunk of a car to those of the blankets composing the wrapping in which the victims had been hidden. A "pseudo-1:1" taping permitted to reconstruct the spatial distribution of the traces and to further strengthen the support to one of the hypotheses. The Likelihood Ratio (LR) was calculated, in order to quantify the support given by forensic evidence to the explanations proposed. A generalization of the Likelihood Ratio equation to cases analogous to this has been derived. Fibers were the only traces that helped in the corroboration of the crime scenario, being absent any DNA, fingerprints and ballistic evidence.

On Adapting the Tensor Voting Framework to Robust Color Image Denoising

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, Rodrigo; Garcia, Miguel Angel; Puig, Domenec; Julià, Carme

This paper presents an adaptation of the tensor voting framework for color image denoising, while preserving edges. Tensors are used in order to encode the CIELAB color channels, the uniformity and the edginess of image pixels. A specific voting process is proposed in order to propagate color from a pixel to its neighbors by considering the distance between pixels, the perceptual color difference (by using an optimized version of CIEDE2000), a uniformity measurement and the likelihood of the pixels being impulse noise. The original colors are corrected with those encoded by the tensors obtained after the voting process. Peak to noise ratios and visual inspection show that the proposed methodology has a better performance than state-of-the-art techniques.

Mentalizing Family Violence Part 1: Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

Asen, Eia; Fonagy, Peter

2017-03-01

This is the first of two companion papers describing concepts and techniques of a mentalization-based approach to understanding and managing family violence. We review evidence that attachment difficulties, sudden high levels of arousal, and poor affect control contribute to a loss of mentalizing capacity, which, in turn, undermines social learning and can favor the transgenerational transmission of violent interaction patterns. It is suggested that physically violent acts are only possible if mentalizing is temporarily inhibited or decoupled. However, being mentalized in the context of attachment relationships in the family generates epistemic trust within the family unit and reduces the likelihood of family violence. The implications of this framework for therapeutic work with families are discussed. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

2016-01-01

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

A Discounting Framework for Choice With Delayed and Probabilistic Rewards

PubMed Central

Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel

2005-01-01

When choosing between delayed or uncertain outcomes, individuals discount the value of such outcomes on the basis of the expected time to or the likelihood of their occurrence. In an integrative review of the expanding experimental literature on discounting, the authors show that although the same form of hyperbola-like function describes discounting of both delayed and probabilistic outcomes, a variety of recent findings are inconsistent with a single-process account. The authors also review studies that compare discounting in different populations and discuss the theoretical and practical implications of the findings. The present effort illustrates the value of studying choice involving both delayed and probabilistic outcomes within a general discounting framework that uses similar experimental procedures and a common analytical approach. PMID:15367080

Change to earlier surgical interventions: contemporary management of unilateral vocal fold paralysis.

PubMed

Costello, Declan

2015-06-01

The management of unilateral vocal fold paralysis has undergone significant changes in the last 2 decades. This has largely been made possible by advances in endoscope technology and new injectable materials. This article will cover the main changes in management of patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis and summarize the recent literature in relation to early intervention in this group. Several recent studies have suggested that early vocal fold injection medialization reduces the likelihood of needing open laryngeal framework surgery in future. Early injection medialization appears to give good long-term results with few complications and minimizes the need for future laryngeal framework surgery. It should be considered in centres wherein the equipment and trained staff are available.

The disclosure processes model: Understanding disclosure decision-making and post-disclosure outcomes among people living with a concealable stigmatized identity

PubMed Central

Chaudoir, Stephenie R.; Fisher, Jeffrey D.

2010-01-01

Disclosure is a critical aspect of the experience of people who live with concealable stigmatized identities. This article presents the Disclosure Processes Model (DPM)— a framework that examines when and why interpersonal disclosure may be beneficial. The DPM suggests that antecedent goals representing approach and avoidance motivational systems moderate the effect of disclosure on numerous individual, dyadic, and social contextual outcomes and that these effects are mediated by three distinct processes: (1) alleviation of inhibition, (2) social support, and (3) changes in social information. Ultimately, the DPM provides a framework that advances disclosure theory and identifies strategies that can assist disclosers in maximizing the likelihood that disclosure will benefit well-being. PMID:20192562

Integration of prior CT into CBCT reconstruction for improved image quality via reconstruction of difference: first patient studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hao; Gang, Grace J.; Lee, Junghoon; Wong, John; Stayman, J. Webster

2017-03-01

Purpose: There are many clinical situations where diagnostic CT is used for an initial diagnosis or treatment planning, followed by one or more CBCT scans that are part of an image-guided intervention. Because the high-quality diagnostic CT scan is a rich source of patient-specific anatomical knowledge, this provides an opportunity to incorporate the prior CT image into subsequent CBCT reconstruction for improved image quality. We propose a penalized-likelihood method called reconstruction of difference (RoD), to directly reconstruct differences between the CBCT scan and the CT prior. In this work, we demonstrate the efficacy of RoD with clinical patient datasets. Methods: We introduce a data processing workflow using the RoD framework to reconstruct anatomical changes between the prior CT and current CBCT. This workflow includes processing steps to account for non-anatomical differences between the two scans including 1) scatter correction for CBCT datasets due to increased scatter fractions in CBCT data; 2) histogram matching for attenuation variations between CT and CBCT; and 3) registration for different patient positioning. CBCT projection data and CT planning volumes for two radiotherapy patients - one abdominal study and one head-and-neck study - were investigated. Results: In comparisons between the proposed RoD framework and more traditional FDK and penalized-likelihood reconstructions, we find a significant improvement in image quality when prior CT information is incorporated into the reconstruction. RoD is able to provide additional low-contrast details while correctly incorporating actual physical changes in patient anatomy. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an opportunity to either improve image quality or relax data fidelity constraints for CBCT imaging when prior CT studies of the same patient are available. Possible clinical targets include CBCT image-guided radiotherapy and CBCT image-guided surgeries.

Plastid phylogenomics of the cool-season grass subfamily: clarification of relationships among early-diverging tribes.

PubMed

Saarela, Jeffery M; Wysocki, William P; Barrett, Craig F; Soreng, Robert J; Davis, Jerrold I; Clark, Lynn G; Kelchner, Scot A; Pires, J Chris; Edger, Patrick P; Mayfield, Dustin R; Duvall, Melvin R

2015-05-04

Whole plastid genomes are being sequenced rapidly from across the green plant tree of life, and phylogenetic analyses of these are increasing resolution and support for relationships that have varied among or been unresolved in earlier single- and multi-gene studies. Pooideae, the cool-season grass lineage, is the largest of the 12 grass subfamilies and includes important temperate cereals, turf grasses and forage species. Although numerous studies of the phylogeny of the subfamily have been undertaken, relationships among some 'early-diverging' tribes conflict among studies, and some relationships among subtribes of Poeae have not yet been resolved. To address these issues, we newly sequenced 25 whole plastomes, which showed rearrangements typical of Poaceae. These plastomes represent 9 tribes and 11 subtribes of Pooideae, and were analysed with 20 existing plastomes for the subfamily. Maximum likelihood (ML), maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian inference (BI) robustly resolve most deep relationships in the subfamily. Complete plastome data provide increased nodal support compared with protein-coding data alone at nodes that are not maximally supported. Following the divergence of Brachyelytrum, Phaenospermateae, Brylkinieae-Meliceae and Ampelodesmeae-Stipeae are the successive sister groups of the rest of the subfamily. Ampelodesmeae are nested within Stipeae in the plastome trees, consistent with its hybrid origin between a phaenospermatoid and a stipoid grass (the maternal parent). The core Pooideae are strongly supported and include Brachypodieae, a Bromeae-Triticeae clade and Poeae. Within Poeae, a novel sister group relationship between Phalaridinae and Torreyochloinae is found, and the relative branching order of this clade and Aveninae, with respect to an Agrostidinae-Brizinae clade, are discordant between MP and ML/BI trees. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses strongly support Airinae and Holcinae as the successive sister groups of a Dactylidinae-Loliinae clade. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Phylogeny of the cycads based on multiple single-copy nuclear genes: congruence of concatenated parsimony, likelihood and species tree inference methods

PubMed Central

Salas-Leiva, Dayana E.; Meerow, Alan W.; Calonje, Michael; Griffith, M. Patrick; Francisco-Ortega, Javier; Nakamura, Kyoko; Stevenson, Dennis W.; Lewis, Carl E.; Namoff, Sandra

2013-01-01

Background and aims Despite a recent new classification, a stable phylogeny for the cycads has been elusive, particularly regarding resolution of Bowenia, Stangeria and Dioon. In this study, five single-copy nuclear genes (SCNGs) are applied to the phylogeny of the order Cycadales. The specific aim is to evaluate several gene tree–species tree reconciliation approaches for developing an accurate phylogeny of the order, to contrast them with concatenated parsimony analysis and to resolve the erstwhile problematic phylogenetic position of these three genera. Methods DNA sequences of five SCNGs were obtained for 20 cycad species representing all ten genera of Cycadales. These were analysed with parsimony, maximum likelihood (ML) and three Bayesian methods of gene tree–species tree reconciliation, using Cycas as the outgroup. A calibrated date estimation was developed with Bayesian methods, and biogeographic analysis was also conducted. Key Results Concatenated parsimony, ML and three species tree inference methods resolve exactly the same tree topology with high support at most nodes. Dioon and Bowenia are the first and second branches of Cycadales after Cycas, respectively, followed by an encephalartoid clade (Macrozamia–Lepidozamia–Encephalartos), which is sister to a zamioid clade, of which Ceratozamia is the first branch, and in which Stangeria is sister to Microcycas and Zamia. Conclusions A single, well-supported phylogenetic hypothesis of the generic relationships of the Cycadales is presented. However, massive extinction events inferred from the fossil record that eliminated broader ancestral distributions within Zamiaceae compromise accurate optimization of ancestral biogeographical areas for that hypothesis. While major lineages of Cycadales are ancient, crown ages of all modern genera are no older than 12 million years, supporting a recent hypothesis of mostly Miocene radiations. This phylogeny can contribute to an accurate infrafamilial classification of Zamiaceae. PMID:23997230

Fine Physical and Genetic Mapping of Powdery Mildew Resistance Gene MlIW172 Originating from Wild Emmer (Triticum dicoccoides)

PubMed Central

Han, Jun; Zhao, Xiaojie; Cui, Yu; Song, Wei; Huo, Naxin; Liang, Yong; Xie, Jingzhong; Wang, Zhenzhong; Wu, Qiuhong; Chen, Yong-Xing; Lu, Ping; Zhang, De-Yun; Wang, Lili; Sun, Hua; Yang, Tsomin; Keeble-Gagnere, Gabriel; Appels, Rudi; Doležel, Jaroslav; Ling, Hong-Qing; Luo, Mingcheng; Gu, Yongqiang; Sun, Qixin; Liu, Zhiyong

2014-01-01

Powdery mildew, caused by Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici, is one of the most important wheat diseases in the world. In this study, a single dominant powdery mildew resistance gene MlIW172 was identified in the IW172 wild emmer accession and mapped to the distal region of chromosome arm 7AL (bin7AL-16-0.86-0.90) via molecular marker analysis. MlIW172 was closely linked with the RFLP probe Xpsr680-derived STS marker Xmag2185 and the EST markers BE405531 and BE637476. This suggested that MlIW172 might be allelic to the Pm1 locus or a new locus closely linked to Pm1. By screening genomic BAC library of durum wheat cv. Langdon and 7AL-specific BAC library of hexaploid wheat cv. Chinese Spring, and after analyzing genome scaffolds of Triticum urartu containing the marker sequences, additional markers were developed to construct a fine genetic linkage map on the MlIW172 locus region and to delineate the resistance gene within a 0.48 cM interval. Comparative genetics analyses using ESTs and RFLP probe sequences flanking the MlIW172 region against other grass species revealed a general co-linearity in this region with the orthologous genomic regions of rice chromosome 6, Brachypodium chromosome 1, and sorghum chromosome 10. However, orthologous resistance gene-like RGA sequences were only present in wheat and Brachypodium. The BAC contigs and sequence scaffolds that we have developed provide a framework for the physical mapping and map-based cloning of MlIW172. PMID:24955773

A Robust State Estimation Framework Considering Measurement Correlations and Imperfect Synchronization

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Junbo; Wang, Shaobu; Mili, Lamine; ...

2018-01-08

Here, this paper develops a robust power system state estimation framework with the consideration of measurement correlations and imperfect synchronization. In the framework, correlations of SCADA and Phasor Measurements (PMUs) are calculated separately through unscented transformation and a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model. In particular, PMU measurements during the waiting period of two SCADA measurement scans are buffered to develop the VAR model with robustly estimated parameters using projection statistics approach. The latter takes into account the temporal and spatial correlations of PMU measurements and provides redundant measurements to suppress bad data and mitigate imperfect synchronization. In case where the SCADAmore » and PMU measurements are not time synchronized, either the forecasted PMU measurements or the prior SCADA measurements from the last estimation run are leveraged to restore system observability. Then, a robust generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimator is extended to integrate measurement error correlations and to handle the outliers in the SCADA and PMU measurements. Simulation results that stem from a comprehensive comparison with other alternatives under various conditions demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework.« less

A Robust State Estimation Framework Considering Measurement Correlations and Imperfect Synchronization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Junbo; Wang, Shaobu; Mili, Lamine

Here, this paper develops a robust power system state estimation framework with the consideration of measurement correlations and imperfect synchronization. In the framework, correlations of SCADA and Phasor Measurements (PMUs) are calculated separately through unscented transformation and a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model. In particular, PMU measurements during the waiting period of two SCADA measurement scans are buffered to develop the VAR model with robustly estimated parameters using projection statistics approach. The latter takes into account the temporal and spatial correlations of PMU measurements and provides redundant measurements to suppress bad data and mitigate imperfect synchronization. In case where the SCADAmore » and PMU measurements are not time synchronized, either the forecasted PMU measurements or the prior SCADA measurements from the last estimation run are leveraged to restore system observability. Then, a robust generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimator is extended to integrate measurement error correlations and to handle the outliers in the SCADA and PMU measurements. Simulation results that stem from a comprehensive comparison with other alternatives under various conditions demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework.« less

Beyond comorbidity: Toward a dimensional and hierarchal approach to understanding psychopathology across the lifespan

PubMed Central

Forbes, Miriam K.; Tackett, Jennifer L.; Markon, Kristian E.; Krueger, Robert F.

2016-01-01

In this review, we propose a novel developmentally informed framework to push research beyond a focus on comorbidity between discrete diagnostic categories, and to move towards research based on the well-validated dimensional and hierarchical structure of psychopathology. For example, a large body of research speaks to the validity and utility of the Internalizing and Externalizing (IE) spectra as organizing constructs for research on common forms of psychopathology. The IE spectra act as powerful explanatory variables that channel the psychopathological effects of genetic and environmental risk factors, predict adaptive functioning, and account for the likelihood of disorder-level manifestations of psychopathology. As such, our proposed theoretical framework uses the IE spectra as central constructs to guide future psychopathology research across the lifespan. The framework is particularly flexible, as any of the facets or factors from the dimensional and hierarchical structure of psychopathology can form the focus of research. We describe the utility and strengths of this framework for developmental psychopathology in particular, and explore avenues for future research. PMID:27739384

The influence of verification jig on framework fit for nonsegmented fixed implant-supported complete denture.

PubMed

Ercoli, Carlo; Geminiani, Alessandro; Feng, Changyong; Lee, Heeje

2012-05-01

The purpose of this retrospective study was to assess if there was a difference in the likelihood of achieving passive fit when an implant-supported full-arch prosthesis framework is fabricated with or without the aid of a verification jig. This investigation was approved by the University of Rochester Research Subject Review Board (protocol #RSRB00038482). Thirty edentulous patients, 49 to 73 years old (mean 61 years old), rehabilitated with a nonsegmented fixed implant-supported complete denture were included in the study. During the restorative process, final impressions were made using the pickup impression technique and elastomeric impression materials. For 16 patients, a verification jig was made (group J), while for the remaining 14 patients, a verification jig was not used (group NJ) and the framework was fabricated directly on the master cast. During the framework try-in appointment, the fit was assessed by clinical (Sheffield test) and radiographic inspection and recorded as passive or nonpassive. When a verification jig was used (group J, n = 16), all frameworks exhibited clinically passive fit, while when a verification jig was not used (group NJ, n = 14), only two frameworks fit. This difference was statistically significant (p < .001). Within the limitations of this retrospective study, the fabrication of a verification jig ensured clinically passive fit of metal frameworks in nonsegmented fixed implant-supported complete denture. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Machine learning assisted first-principles calculation of multicomponent solid solutions: estimation of interface energy in Ni-based superalloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandran, Mahesh; Lee, S. C.; Shim, Jae-Hyeok

2018-02-01

A disordered configuration of atoms in a multicomponent solid solution presents a computational challenge for first-principles calculations using density functional theory (DFT). The challenge is in identifying the few probable (low energy) configurations from a large configurational space before DFT calculation can be performed. The search for these probable configurations is possible if the configurational energy E({\\boldsymbol{σ }}) can be calculated accurately and rapidly (with a negligibly small computational cost). In this paper, we demonstrate such a possibility by constructing a machine learning (ML) model for E({\\boldsymbol{σ }}) trained with DFT-calculated energies. The feature vector for the ML model is formed by concatenating histograms of pair and triplet (only equilateral triangle) correlation functions, {g}(2)(r) and {g}(3)(r,r,r), respectively. These functions are a quantitative ‘fingerprint’ of the spatial arrangement of atoms, familiar in the field of amorphous materials and liquids. The ML model is used to generate an accurate distribution P(E({\\boldsymbol{σ }})) by rapidly spanning a large number of configurations. The P(E) contains full configurational information of the solid solution and can be selectively sampled to choose a few configurations for targeted DFT calculations. This new framework is employed to estimate (100) interface energy ({σ }{{IE}}) between γ and γ \\prime at 700 °C in Alloy 617, a Ni-based superalloy, with composition reduced to five components. The estimated {σ }{{IE}} ≈ 25.95 mJ m-2 is in good agreement with the value inferred by the precipitation model fit to experimental data. The proposed new ML-based ab initio framework can be applied to calculate the parameters and properties of alloys with any number of components, thus widening the reach of first-principles calculation to realistic compositions of industrially relevant materials and alloys.

Evaluating Principal Surrogate Markers in Vaccine Trials in the Presence of Multiphase Sampling

PubMed Central

Huang, Ying

2017-01-01

Summary This paper focuses on the evaluation of vaccine-induced immune responses as principal surrogate markers for predicting a given vaccine’s effect on the clinical endpoint of interest. To address the problem of missing potential outcomes under the principal surrogate framework, we can utilize baseline predictors of the immune biomarker(s) or vaccinate uninfected placebo recipients at the end of the trial and measure their immune biomarkers. Examples of good baseline predictors are baseline immune responses when subjects enrolled in the trial have been previously exposed to the same antigen, as in our motivating application of the Zostavax Efficacy and Safety Trial (ZEST). However, laboratory assays of these baseline predictors are expensive and therefore their subsampling among participants is commonly performed. In this paper we develop a methodology for estimating principal surrogate values in the presence of baseline predictor subsampling. Under a multiphase sampling framework, we propose a semiparametric pseudo-score estimator based on conditional likelihood and also develop several alternative semiparametric pseudo-score or estimated likelihood estimators. We derive corresponding asymptotic theories and analytic variance formulas for these estimators. Through extensive numeric studies, we demonstrate good finite sample performance of these estimators and the efficiency advantage of the proposed pseudo-score estimator in various sampling schemes. We illustrate the application of our proposed estimators using data from an immune biomarker study nested within the ZEST trial. PMID:28653408

Phylogenetic position of Loricifera inferred from nearly complete 18S and 28S rRNA gene sequences.

PubMed

Yamasaki, Hiroshi; Fujimoto, Shinta; Miyazaki, Katsumi

2015-01-01

Loricifera is an enigmatic metazoan phylum; its morphology appeared to place it with Priapulida and Kinorhyncha in the group Scalidophora which, along with Nematoida (Nematoda and Nematomorpha), comprised the group Cycloneuralia. Scarce molecular data have suggested an alternative phylogenetic hypothesis, that the phylum Loricifera is a sister taxon to Nematomorpha, although the actual phylogenetic position of the phylum remains unclear. Ecdysozoan phylogeny was reconstructed through maximum-likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) analyses of nuclear 18S and 28S rRNA gene sequences from 60 species representing all eight ecdysozoan phyla, and including a newly collected loriciferan species. Ecdysozoa comprised two clades with high support values in both the ML and BI trees. One consisted of Priapulida and Kinorhyncha, and the other of Loricifera, Nematoida, and Panarthropoda (Tardigrada, Onychophora, and Arthropoda). The relationships between Loricifera, Nematoida, and Panarthropoda were not well resolved. Loricifera appears to be closely related to Nematoida and Panarthropoda, rather than grouping with Priapulida and Kinorhyncha, as had been suggested by previous studies. Thus, both Scalidophora and Cycloneuralia are a polyphyletic or paraphyletic groups. In addition, Loricifera and Nematomorpha did not emerge as sister groups.

A generalized gamma mixture model for ultrasonic tissue characterization.

PubMed

Vegas-Sanchez-Ferrero, Gonzalo; Aja-Fernandez, Santiago; Palencia, Cesar; Martin-Fernandez, Marcos

2012-01-01

Several statistical models have been proposed in the literature to describe the behavior of speckles. Among them, the Nakagami distribution has proven to very accurately characterize the speckle behavior in tissues. However, it fails when describing the heavier tails caused by the impulsive response of a speckle. The Generalized Gamma (GG) distribution (which also generalizes the Nakagami distribution) was proposed to overcome these limitations. Despite the advantages of the distribution in terms of goodness of fitting, its main drawback is the lack of a closed-form maximum likelihood (ML) estimates. Thus, the calculation of its parameters becomes difficult and not attractive. In this work, we propose (1) a simple but robust methodology to estimate the ML parameters of GG distributions and (2) a Generalized Gama Mixture Model (GGMM). These mixture models are of great value in ultrasound imaging when the received signal is characterized by a different nature of tissues. We show that a better speckle characterization is achieved when using GG and GGMM rather than other state-of-the-art distributions and mixture models. Results showed the better performance of the GG distribution in characterizing the speckle of blood and myocardial tissue in ultrasonic images.

A Generalized Gamma Mixture Model for Ultrasonic Tissue Characterization

PubMed Central

Palencia, Cesar; Martin-Fernandez, Marcos

2012-01-01

Several statistical models have been proposed in the literature to describe the behavior of speckles. Among them, the Nakagami distribution has proven to very accurately characterize the speckle behavior in tissues. However, it fails when describing the heavier tails caused by the impulsive response of a speckle. The Generalized Gamma (GG) distribution (which also generalizes the Nakagami distribution) was proposed to overcome these limitations. Despite the advantages of the distribution in terms of goodness of fitting, its main drawback is the lack of a closed-form maximum likelihood (ML) estimates. Thus, the calculation of its parameters becomes difficult and not attractive. In this work, we propose (1) a simple but robust methodology to estimate the ML parameters of GG distributions and (2) a Generalized Gama Mixture Model (GGMM). These mixture models are of great value in ultrasound imaging when the received signal is characterized by a different nature of tissues. We show that a better speckle characterization is achieved when using GG and GGMM rather than other state-of-the-art distributions and mixture models. Results showed the better performance of the GG distribution in characterizing the speckle of blood and myocardial tissue in ultrasonic images. PMID:23424602

Kinematic Structural Modelling in Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Alexander; de la Varga, Miguel; Florian Wellmann, J.

2017-04-01

We commonly capture our knowledge about the spatial distribution of distinct geological lithologies in the form of 3-D geological models. Several methods exist to create these models, each with its own strengths and limitations. We present here an approach to combine the functionalities of two modeling approaches - implicit interpolation and kinematic modelling methods - into one framework, while explicitly considering parameter uncertainties and thus model uncertainty. In recent work, we proposed an approach to implement implicit modelling algorithms into Bayesian networks. This was done to address the issues of input data uncertainty and integration of geological information from varying sources in the form of geological likelihood functions. However, one general shortcoming of implicit methods is that they usually do not take any physical constraints into consideration, which can result in unrealistic model outcomes and artifacts. On the other hand, kinematic structural modelling intends to reconstruct the history of a geological system based on physically driven kinematic events. This type of modelling incorporates simplified, physical laws into the model, at the cost of a substantial increment of usable uncertain parameters. In the work presented here, we show an integration of these two different modelling methodologies, taking advantage of the strengths of both of them. First, we treat the two types of models separately, capturing the information contained in the kinematic models and their specific parameters in the form of likelihood functions, in order to use them in the implicit modelling scheme. We then go further and combine the two modelling approaches into one single Bayesian network. This enables the direct flow of information between the parameters of the kinematic modelling step and the implicit modelling step and links the exclusive input data and likelihoods of the two different modelling algorithms into one probabilistic inference framework. In addition, we use the capabilities of Noddy to analyze the topology of structural models to demonstrate how topological information, such as the connectivity of two layers across an unconformity, can be used as a likelihood function. In an application to a synthetic case study, we show that our approach leads to a successful combination of the two different modelling concepts. Specifically, we show that we derive ensemble realizations of implicit models that now incorporate the knowledge of the kinematic aspects, representing an important step forward in the integration of knowledge and a corresponding estimation of uncertainties in structural geological models.

Achieving behaviour change for detection of Lynch syndrome using the Theoretical Domains Framework Implementation (TDFI) approach: a study protocol.

PubMed

Taylor, Natalie; Long, Janet C; Debono, Deborah; Williams, Rachel; Salisbury, Elizabeth; O'Neill, Sharron; Eykman, Elizabeth; Braithwaite, Jeffrey; Chin, Melvin

2016-03-12

Lynch syndrome is an inherited disorder associated with a range of cancers, and found in 2-5 % of colorectal cancers. Lynch syndrome is diagnosed through a combination of significant family and clinical history and pathology. The definitive diagnostic germline test requires formal patient consent after genetic counselling. If diagnosed early, carriers of Lynch syndrome can undergo increased surveillance for cancers, which in turn can prevent late stage cancers, optimise treatment and decrease mortality for themselves and their relatives. However, over the past decade, international studies have reported that only a small proportion of individuals with suspected Lynch syndrome were referred for genetic consultation and possible genetic testing. The aim of this project is to use behaviour change theory and implementation science approaches to increase the number and speed of healthcare professional referrals of colorectal cancer patients with a high-likelihood risk of Lynch syndrome to appropriate genetic counselling services. The six-step Theoretical Domains Framework Implementation (TDFI) approach will be used at two large, metropolitan hospitals treating colorectal cancer patients. Steps are: 1) form local multidisciplinary teams to map current referral processes; 2) identify target behaviours that may lead to increased referrals using discussion supported by a retrospective audit; 3) identify barriers to those behaviours using the validated Influences on Patient Safety Behaviours Questionnaire and TDFI guided focus groups; 4) co-design interventions to address barriers using focus groups; 5) co-implement interventions; and 6) evaluate intervention impact. Chi square analysis will be used to test the difference in the proportion of high-likelihood risk Lynch syndrome patients being referred for genetic testing before and after intervention implementation. A paired t-test will be used to assess the mean time from the pathology test results to referral for high-likelihood Lynch syndrome patients pre-post intervention. Run charts will be used to continuously monitor change in referrals over time, based on scheduled monthly audits. This project is based on a tested and refined implementation strategy (TDFI approach). Enhancing the process of identifying and referring people at high-likelihood risk of Lynch syndrome for genetic counselling will improve outcomes for patients and their relatives, and potentially save public money.

Significance and Clinical Management of Persistent Low-Level Viremia and Very-Low-Level Viremia in HIV-1-Infected Patients

PubMed Central

Kelly, Sean; Li, Jonathan Z.; Harrigan, P. Richard; Taiwo, Babafemi

2014-01-01

A goal of HIV therapy is to sustain suppression of the plasma viral load below the detection limits of clinical assays. However, widely followed treatment guidelines diverge in their interpretation and recommended management of persistent viremia of low magnitude, reflecting the limited evidence base for this common clinical finding. Here, we review the incidence, risk factors, and potential consequences of low-level HIV viremia (LLV; defined in this review as a viremia level of 50 to 500 copies/ml) and very-low-level viremia (VLLV; defined as a viremia level of <50 copies/ml detected by clinical assays that have quantification cutoffs of <50 copies/ml). Using this framework, we discuss practical issues related to the diagnosis and management of patients experiencing persistent LLV and VLLV. Compared to viral suppression at <50 or 40 copies/ml, persistent LLV is associated with increased risk of antiretroviral drug resistance and overt virologic failure. Higher immune activation and HIV transmission may be additional undesirable consequences in this population. It is uncertain whether LLV of <200 copies/ml confers independent risks, as this level of viremia may reflect assay-dependent artifacts or biologically meaningful events during suppression. Resistance genotyping should be considered in patients with persistent LLV when feasible, and treatment should be modified if resistance is detected. There is a dearth of clinical evidence to guide management when genotyping is not feasible. Increased availability of genotypic assays for samples with viral loads of <400 copies/ml is needed. PMID:24733471

Automatic left-atrial segmentation from cardiac 3D ultrasound: a dual-chamber model-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Nuno; Sarvari, Sebastian I.; Orderud, Fredrik; Gérard, Olivier; D'hooge, Jan; Samset, Eigil

2016-04-01

In this paper, we present an automatic solution for segmentation and quantification of the left atrium (LA) from 3D cardiac ultrasound. A model-based framework is applied, making use of (deformable) active surfaces to model the endocardial surfaces of cardiac chambers, allowing incorporation of a priori anatomical information in a simple fashion. A dual-chamber model (LA and left ventricle) is used to detect and track the atrio-ventricular (AV) plane, without any user input. Both chambers are represented by parametric surfaces and a Kalman filter is used to fit the model to the position of the endocardial walls detected in the image, providing accurate detection and tracking during the whole cardiac cycle. This framework was tested in 20 transthoracic cardiac ultrasound volumetric recordings of healthy volunteers, and evaluated using manual traces of a clinical expert as a reference. The 3D meshes obtained with the automatic method were close to the reference contours at all cardiac phases (mean distance of 0.03+/-0.6 mm). The AV plane was detected with an accuracy of -0.6+/-1.0 mm. The LA volumes assessed automatically were also in agreement with the reference (mean +/-1.96 SD): 0.4+/-5.3 ml, 2.1+/-12.6 ml, and 1.5+/-7.8 ml at end-diastolic, end-systolic and pre-atrial-contraction frames, respectively. This study shows that the proposed method can be used for automatic volumetric assessment of the LA, considerably reducing the analysis time and effort when compared to manual analysis.

White Gaussian Noise - Models for Engineers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jondral, Friedrich K.

2018-04-01

This paper assembles some information about white Gaussian noise (WGN) and its applications. It starts from a description of thermal noise, i. e. the irregular motion of free charge carriers in electronic devices. In a second step, mathematical models of WGN processes and their most important parameters, especially autocorrelation functions and power spectrum densities, are introduced. In order to proceed from mathematical models to simulations, we discuss the generation of normally distributed random numbers. The signal-to-noise ratio as the most important quality measure used in communications, control or measurement technology is accurately introduced. As a practical application of WGN, the transmission of quadrature amplitude modulated (QAM) signals over additive WGN channels together with the optimum maximum likelihood (ML) detector is considered in a demonstrative and intuitive way.

A Bayesian modification to the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability growth model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Littlewood, B.; Sofer, A.

1983-01-01

The Jelinski-Moranda (JM) model for software reliability was examined. It is suggested that a major reason for the poor results given by this model is the poor performance of the maximum likelihood method (ML) of parameter estimation. A reparameterization and Bayesian analysis, involving a slight modelling change, are proposed. It is shown that this new Bayesian-Jelinski-Moranda model (BJM) is mathematically quite tractable, and several metrics of interest to practitioners are obtained. The BJM and JM models are compared by using several sets of real software failure data collected and in all cases the BJM model gives superior reliability predictions. A change in the assumption which underlay both models to present the debugging process more accurately is discussed.

Robust statistical reconstruction for charged particle tomography

DOEpatents

Schultz, Larry Joe; Klimenko, Alexei Vasilievich; Fraser, Andrew Mcleod; Morris, Christopher; Orum, John Christopher; Borozdin, Konstantin N; Sossong, Michael James; Hengartner, Nicolas W

2013-10-08

Systems and methods for charged particle detection including statistical reconstruction of object volume scattering density profiles from charged particle tomographic data to determine the probability distribution of charged particle scattering using a statistical multiple scattering model and determine a substantially maximum likelihood estimate of object volume scattering density using expectation maximization (ML/EM) algorithm to reconstruct the object volume scattering density. The presence of and/or type of object occupying the volume of interest can be identified from the reconstructed volume scattering density profile. The charged particle tomographic data can be cosmic ray muon tomographic data from a muon tracker for scanning packages, containers, vehicles or cargo. The method can be implemented using a computer program which is executable on a computer.

Outcomes of Multiple Listing for Adult Heart Transplantation in the United States: Analysis of OPTN Data From 2000 to 2013.

PubMed

Givens, Raymond C; Dardas, Todd; Clerkin, Kevin J; Restaino, Susan; Schulze, P Christian; Mancini, Donna M

2015-12-01

This study sought to assess the association of multiple listing with waitlist outcomes and post-heart transplant (HT) survival. HT candidates in the United States may register at multiple centers. Not all candidates have the resources and mobility needed for multiple listing; thus this policy may advantage wealthier and less sick patients. We identified 33,928 adult candidates for a first single-organ HT between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2013 in the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database. We identified 679 multiple-listed (ML) candidates (2.0%) who were younger (median age, 53 years [interquartile range (IQR): 43 to 60 years] vs. 55 years [IQR: 45 to 61 years]; p < 0.0001), more often white (76.4% vs. 70.7%; p = 0.0010) and privately insured (65.5% vs. 56.3%; p < 0.0001), and lived in zip codes with higher median incomes (US$90,153 [IQR: US$25,471 to US$253,831] vs. US$68,986 [IQR: US$19,471 to US$219,702]; p = 0.0015). Likelihood of ML increased with the primary center's median waiting time. ML candidates had lower initial priority (39.0% 1A or 1B vs. 55.1%; p < 0.0001) and predicted 90-day waitlist mortality (2.9% [IQR: 2.3% to 4.7%] vs. 3.6% [IQR: 2.3% to 6.0]%; p < 0.0001), but were frequently upgraded at secondary centers (58.2% 1A/1B; p < 0.0001 vs. ML primary listing). ML candidates had a higher HT rate (74.4% vs. 70.2%; p = 0.0196) and lower waitlist mortality (8.1% vs. 12.2%; p = 0.0011). Compared with a propensity-matched cohort, the relative ML HT rate was 3.02 (95% confidence interval: 2.59 to 3.52; p < 0.0001). There were no post-HT survival differences. Multiple listing is a rational response to organ shortage but may advantage patients with the means to participate rather than the most medically needy. The multiple-listing policy should be overturned. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extending the time window for endovascular procedures according to collateral pial circulation.

PubMed

Ribo, Marc; Flores, Alan; Rubiera, Marta; Pagola, Jorge; Sargento-Freitas, Joao; Rodriguez-Luna, David; Coscojuela, Pilar; Maisterra, Olga; Piñeiro, Socorro; Romero, Francisco J; Alvarez-Sabin, Jose; Molina, Carlos A

2011-12-01

Good collateral pial circulation (CPC) predicts a favorable outcome in patients undergoing intra-arterial procedures. We aimed to determine if CPC status may be used to decide about pursuing recanalization efforts. Pial collateral score (0-5) was determined on initial angiogram. We considered good CPC when pial collateral score<3, defined total time of ischemia (TTI) as onset-to-recanalization time, and clinical improvement>4-point decline in admission-discharge National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. We studied CPC in 61 patients (31 middle cerebral artery, 30 internal carotid artery). Good CPC patients (n=21 [34%]) had lower discharge National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (7 versus 21; P=0.02) and smaller infarcts (56 mL versus 238 mL; P<0.001). In poor CPC patients, a receiver operating characteristic curve defined a TTI cutoff point<300 minutes (sensitivity 67%, specificity 75%) that better predicted clinical improvement (TTI<300: 66.7% versus TTI>300: 25%; P=0.05). For good CPC patients, no temporal cutoff point could be defined. Although clinical improvement was similar for patients recanalizing within 300 minutes (poor CPC: 60% versus good CPC: 85.7%; P=0.35), the likelihood of clinical improvement was 3-fold higher after 300 minutes only in good CPC patients (23.1% versus 90.1%; P=0.01). Similarly, infarct volume was reduced 7-fold in good as compared with poor CPC patients only when TTI>300 minutes (TTI<300: poor CPC: 145 mL versus good CPC: 93 mL; P=0.56 and TTI>300: poor CPC: 217 mL versus good CPC: 33 mL; P<0.01). After adjusting for age and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, TTI<300 emerged as an independent predictor of clinical improvement in poor CPC patients (OR, 6.6; 95% CI, 1.01-44.3; P=0.05) but not in good CPC patients. In a logistic regression, good CPC independently predicted clinical improvement after adjusting for TTI, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and age (OR, 12.5; 95% CI, 1.6-74.8; P=0.016). Good CPC predicts better clinical response to intra-arterial treatment beyond 5 hours from onset. In patients with stroke receiving endovascular treatment, identification of good CPC may help physicians when considering pursuing recanalization efforts in late time windows.

GPSit: An automated method for evolutionary analysis of nonculturable ciliated microeukaryotes.

PubMed

Chen, Xiao; Wang, Yurui; Sheng, Yalan; Warren, Alan; Gao, Shan

2018-05-01

Microeukaryotes are among the most important components of the microbial food web in almost all aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. In order to gain a better understanding their roles and functions in ecosystems, sequencing coupled with phylogenomic analyses of entire genomes or transcriptomes is increasingly used to reconstruct the evolutionary history and classification of these microeukaryotes and thus provide a more robust framework for determining their systematics and diversity. More importantly, phylogenomic research usually requires high levels of hands-on bioinformatics experience. Here, we propose an efficient automated method, "Guided Phylogenomic Search in trees" (GPSit), which starts from predicted protein sequences of newly sequenced species and a well-defined customized orthologous database. Compared with previous protocols, our method streamlines the entire workflow by integrating all essential and other optional operations. In so doing, the manual operation time for reconstructing phylogenetic relationships is reduced from days to several hours, compared to other methods. Furthermore, GPSit supports user-defined parameters in most steps and thus allows users to adapt it to their studies. The effectiveness of GPSit is demonstrated by incorporating available online data and new single-cell data of three nonculturable marine ciliates (Anteholosticha monilata, Deviata sp. and Diophrys scutum) under moderate sequencing coverage (~5×). Our results indicate that the former could reconstruct robust "deep" phylogenetic relationships while the latter reveals the presence of intermediate taxa in shallow relationships. Based on empirical phylogenomic data, we also used GPSit to evaluate the impact of different levels of missing data on two commonly used methods of phylogenetic analyses, maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI) methods. We found that BI is less sensitive to missing data when fast-evolving sites are removed. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sustainability likelihood of remediation options for metal-contaminated soil/sediment.

PubMed

Chen, Season S; Taylor, Jessica S; Baek, Kitae; Khan, Eakalak; Tsang, Daniel C W; Ok, Yong Sik

2017-05-01

Multi-criteria analysis and detailed impact analysis were carried out to assess the sustainability of four remedial alternatives for metal-contaminated soil/sediment at former timber treatment sites and harbour sediment with different scales. The sustainability was evaluated in the aspects of human health and safety, environment, stakeholder concern, and land use, under four different scenarios with varying weighting factors. The Monte Carlo simulation was performed to reveal the likelihood of accomplishing sustainable remediation with different treatment options at different sites. The results showed that in-situ remedial technologies were more sustainable than ex-situ ones, where in-situ containment demonstrated both the most sustainable result and the highest probability to achieve sustainability amongst the four remedial alternatives in this study, reflecting the lesser extent of off-site and on-site impacts. Concerns associated with ex-situ options were adverse impacts tied to all four aspects and caused by excavation, extraction, and off-site disposal. The results of this study suggested the importance of considering the uncertainties resulting from the remedial options (i.e., stochastic analysis) in addition to the overall sustainability scores (i.e., deterministic analysis). The developed framework and model simulation could serve as an assessment for the sustainability likelihood of remedial options to ensure sustainable remediation of contaminated sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Using Multi-Optimization Algorithm as Sampling Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2015-12-01

For decades, distributed and lumped hydrological models have furthered our understanding of hydrological system. The development of hydrological simulation in large scale and high precision elaborated the spatial descriptions and hydrological behaviors. Meanwhile, the new trend is also followed by the increment of model complexity and number of parameters, which brings new challenges of uncertainty quantification. Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) has been widely used in uncertainty analysis for hydrological models referring to Monte Carlo method coupled with Bayesian estimation. However, the stochastic sampling method of prior parameters adopted by GLUE appears inefficient, especially in high dimensional parameter space. The heuristic optimization algorithms utilizing iterative evolution show better convergence speed and optimality-searching performance. In light of the features of heuristic optimization algorithms, this study adopted genetic algorithm, differential evolution, shuffled complex evolving algorithm to search the parameter space and obtain the parameter sets of large likelihoods. Based on the multi-algorithm sampling, hydrological model uncertainty analysis is conducted by the typical GLUE framework. To demonstrate the superiority of the new method, two hydrological models of different complexity are examined. The results shows the adaptive method tends to be efficient in sampling and effective in uncertainty analysis, providing an alternative path for uncertainty quantilization.

Coach Expectations About Off-Field Conduct and Bystander Intervention by U.S. College Football Players to Prevent Inappropriate Sexual Behavior.

PubMed

Kroshus, Emily; Paskus, Tom; Bell, Lydia

2015-09-21

The objective of the present study was to assess whether there is a positive association between expectations about off-field conduct set by the team coach and the likelihood that college football players intend to engage as prosocial bystanders in the prevention of what they consider to be inappropriate sexual behavior. In a sample of U.S. collegiate football players (N = 3,281), a path analysis model tested the association between coach expectations, perceived likelihood of discipline for off-field transgressions, and likelihood of intending to intervene to prevent inappropriate sexual behavior. Mediation of these relationships by the athlete's sense of exploitative entitlement and their attitudes about intervening were also assessed. Findings supported the hypothesized relationships, with expectations and discipline associated with bystander intentions both directly and indirectly through the mediating pathways of entitlement and attitudes about intervening. These findings provide evidence about the important role that sports team coaches can play in encouraging bystander intervention by clarifying expectations and consequences for conduct off the field of play. Athletic departments can provide a framework within which coaches are informed about the importance of setting and enforcing standards for off-field behavior, and are appropriately incentivized to do so. © The Author(s) 2015.

Clinical and laboratory parameters predicting a requirement for the reevaluation of growth hormone status during growth hormone treatment: Retesting early in the course of GH treatment.

PubMed

Vuralli, Dogus; Gonc, E Nazli; Ozon, Z Alev; Alikasifoglu, Ayfer; Kandemir, Nurgun

2017-06-01

We aimed to define the predictive criteria, in the form of specific clinical, hormonal and radiological parameters, for children with growth hormone deficiency (GHD) who may benefit from the reevaluation of GH status early in the course of growth hormone (GH) treatment. Two hundred sixty-five children with growth hormone deficiency were retested by GH stimulation at the end of the first year of GH treatment. The initial clinical and laboratory characteristics of those with a normal (GH≥10ng/ml) response and those with a subnormal (GH<10ng/ml) response were compared to predict a normal GH status during reassessment. Sixty-nine patients (40.6%) out of the 170 patients with isolated growth hormone deficiency (IGHD) had a peak GH of ≥10ng/ml during the retest. None of the patients with multiple pituitary hormone deficiency (MPHD) had a peak GH of ≥10ng/ml. Puberty and sex steroid priming in peripubertal cases increased the probability of a normal GH response. Only one patient with IGHD who had an ectopic posterior pituitary without stalk interruption on MRI analysis showed a normal GH response during the retest. Patients with a peak GH between 5 and 10ng/ml, an age at diagnosis of ≥9years or a height gain below 0.61 SDS during the first year of treatment had an increased probability of having a normal GH response at the retest. Early reassessment of GH status during GH treatment is unnecessary in patients who have MPHD with at least 3 hormone deficiencies. Retesting at the end of the first year of therapy is recommended for patients with IGHD who have a height gain of <0.61 SDS in the first year of treatment, especially those with a normal or 'hypoplastic' pituitary on imaging. Priming can increase the likelihood of a normal response in patients in the pubertal age group who do not show overt signs of pubertal development. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Molecular phylogeny of Pompilinae (Hymenoptera: Pompilidae): Evidence for rapid diversification and host shifts in spider wasps.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Juanita; Pitts, James P; Florez, Jaime A; Bond, Jason E; von Dohlen, Carol D

2016-01-01

Pompilinae is one of the largest subfamilies of spider wasps (Pompilidae). Most pompilines are generalist spider predators at the family level, but some taxa exhibit ecological specificity (i.e., to spider-host guild). Here we present the first molecular phylogenetic analysis of Pompilinae, toward the aim of evaluating the monophyly of tribes and genera. We further test whether changes in the rate of diversification are associated with host-guild shifts. Molecular data were collected from five nuclear loci (28S, EF1-F2, LWRh, Wg, Pol2) for 76 taxa in 39 genera. Data were analyzed using maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI). The phylogenetic results were compared with previous hypotheses of subfamilial and tribal classification, as well as generic relationships in the subfamily. The classification of Pompilus and Agenioideus is also discussed. A Bayesian relaxed molecular clock analysis was used to examine divergence times. Diversification rate-shift tests accounted for taxon-sampling bias using ML and BI approaches. Ancestral host family and host guild were reconstructed using MP and ML methods. Ancestral host guild for all Pompilinae, for the ancestor at the node where a diversification rate-shift was detected, and two more nodes back in time was inferred using BI. In the resulting phylogenies, Aporini was the only previously proposed monophyletic tribe. Several genera (e.g., Pompilus, Microphadnus and Schistonyx) are also not monophyletic. Dating analyses produced a well-supported chronogram consistent with topologies from BI and ML results. The BI ancestral host-use reconstruction inferred the use of spiders belonging to the guild "other hunters" (frequenting the ground and vegetation) as the ancestral state for Pompilinae. This guild had the highest probability for the ML reconstruction and was equivocal for the MP reconstruction; various switching events to other guilds occurred throughout the evolution of the group. The diversification of Pompilinae shows one main rate-shift coinciding with a shift to ground-hunter spiders, as reconstructed by the BI ancestral character-state analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: X-ray sources in the AKARI NEP deep field (Krumpe+, 2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumpe, M.; Miyaji, T.; Brunner, H.; Hanami, H.; Ishigaki, T.; Takagi, T.; Markowitz, A. G.; Goto, T.; Malkan, M. A.; Matsuhara, H.; Pearson, C.; Ueda, Y.; Wada, T.

2015-06-01

The fits images labelled SeMap* are the sensitivity maps in which we give the minimum flux that would have caused a detection at each position. This flux depends on the maximum likelihood threshold chosen in the source detection run, the point spread function, and the background level at the chosen position. We create sensitivity maps in different energy bands (0.5-2, 0.5-7, 2-4, 2-7, and 4-7keV) by searching for the flux to reject the null-hypothesis that the flux at a given position is only caused by a background fluctuation. In a chosen energy band, we determine for each position in the survey the flux required to obtain a certain Poisson probability above the background counts. Since ML=-ln(P), we know from our ML=12 threshold the probability we are aiming for. In practice, we search for a value of -ln P_total that falls within Delta ML=+/-0.2 of our targeted ML threshold. This tolerance range corresponds to having one spurious source more or less in the whole survey. Note, that outside the deep Subaru/Suprime-Cam imaging the sensitivity maps should be used with caution since we assume for their generation a ML=12 over the whole area covered by Chandra. More details on the procedure of producing the sensitivity maps, including the PSF-summed background map and PSF-weighted averaged exposure maps are given in the paper, section 5.3. The fits images labelled u90* are the upper limit maps, where the upper 90 per cent confidence flux limit is given at each position. We take a Bayesian approach following Kraft, Burrows & Nousek, 1991ApJ...374..344K. Consequently, we obtain the upper 90~per cent confidence flux limit by searching for the flux such that given the observed counts the Bayesian probability of having this flux or larger is 10~per cent. More details on the procedure of producing the upper 90 per cent flux limit maps are given in the paper, section 5.4. (6 data files).

What is the best method to fit time-resolved data? A comparison of the residual minimization and the maximum likelihood techniques as applied to experimental time-correlated, single-photon counting data

DOE PAGES

Santra, Kalyan; Zhan, Jinchun; Song, Xueyu; ...

2016-02-10

The need for measuring fluorescence lifetimes of species in subdiffraction-limited volumes in, for example, stimulated emission depletion (STED) microscopy, entails the dual challenge of probing a small number of fluorophores and fitting the concomitant sparse data set to the appropriate excited-state decay function. This need has stimulated a further investigation into the relative merits of two fitting techniques commonly referred to as “residual minimization” (RM) and “maximum likelihood” (ML). Fluorescence decays of the well-characterized standard, rose bengal in methanol at room temperature (530 ± 10 ps), were acquired in a set of five experiments in which the total number ofmore » “photon counts” was approximately 20, 200, 1000, 3000, and 6000 and there were about 2–200 counts at the maxima of the respective decays. Each set of experiments was repeated 50 times to generate the appropriate statistics. Each of the 250 data sets was analyzed by ML and two different RM methods (differing in the weighting of residuals) using in-house routines and compared with a frequently used commercial RM routine. Convolution with a real instrument response function was always included in the fitting. While RM using Pearson’s weighting of residuals can recover the correct mean result with a total number of counts of 1000 or more, ML distinguishes itself by yielding, in all cases, the same mean lifetime within 2% of the accepted value. For 200 total counts and greater, ML always provides a standard deviation of <10% of the mean lifetime, and even at 20 total counts there is only 20% error in the mean lifetime. Here, the robustness of ML advocates its use for sparse data sets such as those acquired in some subdiffraction-limited microscopies, such as STED, and, more importantly, provides greater motivation for exploiting the time-resolved capacities of this technique to acquire and analyze fluorescence lifetime data.« less

Dutch normal-pressure hydrocephalus study: prediction of outcome after shunting by resistance to outflow of cerebrospinal fluid.

PubMed

Boon, A J; Tans, J T; Delwel, E J; Egeler-Peerdeman, S M; Hanlo, P W; Wurzer, H A; Avezaat, C J; de Jong, D A; Gooskens, R H; Hermans, J

1997-11-01

The authors examined whether measurement of resistance to outflow of cerebrospinal fluid (Rcsf) predicts outcome after shunting for patients with normal-pressure hydrocephalus (NPH). In four centers 101 patients (most of whom had idiopathic NPH) who fulfilled strict entry criteria underwent shunt placement irrespective of their level of Rcsf obtained by lumbar constant flow infusion. Gait disturbance and dementia were quantified by using an NPH scale and the patient's level of disability was assessed by using the modified Rankin scale (mRS). In addition the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination was performed. Patients were assessed prior to and 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after surgery. Primary outcome measures were based on differences between the preoperative and last NPH scale scores and mRS grades. Improvement was defined as a change measuring at least 15% in the NPH scale score and at least one mRS grade. Intention-to-treat analysis of all patients at 1 year yielded improvement for 57% in NPH scale score and 59% in mRS grade. Efficacy analysis, excluding serious events and deaths that were unrelated to NPH, was performed for 95 patients. Improvement rose to 76% in NPH scale score and 69% in mRS grade. Six cut-off levels of Rcsf were related to improvement in NPH scale score using two-by-two tables. Positive predictive values were approximately 80% for an Rcsf of 10, 12, or 15 mm Hg/ml/minute, 92% for an Rcsf of 18 mm Hg/ml/minute, and 100% for an Rcsf of 24 mm Hg/ml/minute. Negative predictive values were low. More important was the highest likelihood ratio of 3.5 for an Rcsf of 18 mm Hg/ml/minute. Extensive comorbidity was a major prognostic factor. Measurement of Rcsf reliably predicts outcome if the limit for shunting is raised to 18 mm Hg/ml/minute. At lower Rcsf values the decision depends mainly on the extent to which clinical and computerized tomography findings are typical of NPH.

Matching mammographic regions in mediolateral oblique and cranio caudal views: a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samulski, Maurice; Karssemeijer, Nico

2008-03-01

Most of the current CAD systems detect suspicious mass regions independently in single views. In this paper we present a method to match corresponding regions in mediolateral oblique (MLO) and craniocaudal (CC) mammographic views of the breast. For every possible combination of mass regions in the MLO view and CC view, a number of features are computed, such as the difference in distance of a region to the nipple, a texture similarity measure, the gray scale correlation and the likelihood of malignancy of both regions computed by single-view analysis. In previous research, Linear Discriminant Analysis was used to discriminate between correct and incorrect links. In this paper we investigate if the performance can be improved by employing a statistical method in which four classes are distinguished. These four classes are defined by the combinations of view (MLO/CC) and pathology (TP/FP) labels. We use distance-weighted k-Nearest Neighbor density estimation to estimate the likelihood of a region combination. Next, a correspondence score is calculated as the likelihood that the region combination is a TP-TP link. The method was tested on 412 cases with a malignant lesion visible in at least one of the views. In 82.4% of the cases a correct link could be established between the TP detections in both views. In future work, we will use the framework presented here to develop a context dependent region matching scheme, which takes the number and likelihood of possible alternatives into account. It is expected that more accurate determination of matching probabilities will lead to improved CAD performance.

Comparison of statistical sampling methods with ScannerBit, the GAMBIT scanning module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Gregory D.; McKay, James; Farmer, Ben; Scott, Pat; Roebber, Elinore; Putze, Antje; Conrad, Jan

2017-11-01

We introduce ScannerBit, the statistics and sampling module of the public, open-source global fitting framework GAMBIT. ScannerBit provides a standardised interface to different sampling algorithms, enabling the use and comparison of multiple computational methods for inferring profile likelihoods, Bayesian posteriors, and other statistical quantities. The current version offers random, grid, raster, nested sampling, differential evolution, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and ensemble Monte Carlo samplers. We also announce the release of a new standalone differential evolution sampler, Diver, and describe its design, usage and interface to ScannerBit. We subject Diver and three other samplers (the nested sampler MultiNest, the MCMC GreAT, and the native ScannerBit implementation of the ensemble Monte Carlo algorithm T-Walk) to a battery of statistical tests. For this we use a realistic physical likelihood function, based on the scalar singlet model of dark matter. We examine the performance of each sampler as a function of its adjustable settings, and the dimensionality of the sampling problem. We evaluate performance on four metrics: optimality of the best fit found, completeness in exploring the best-fit region, number of likelihood evaluations, and total runtime. For Bayesian posterior estimation at high resolution, T-Walk provides the most accurate and timely mapping of the full parameter space. For profile likelihood analysis in less than about ten dimensions, we find that Diver and MultiNest score similarly in terms of best fit and speed, outperforming GreAT and T-Walk; in ten or more dimensions, Diver substantially outperforms the other three samplers on all metrics.

Task Performance with List-Mode Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caucci, Luca

This dissertation investigates the application of list-mode data to detection, estimation, and image reconstruction problems, with an emphasis on emission tomography in medical imaging. We begin by introducing a theoretical framework for list-mode data and we use it to define two observers that operate on list-mode data. These observers are applied to the problem of detecting a signal (known in shape and location) buried in a random lumpy background. We then consider maximum-likelihood methods for the estimation of numerical parameters from list-mode data, and we characterize the performance of these estimators via the so-called Fisher information matrix. Reconstruction from PET list-mode data is then considered. In a process we called "double maximum-likelihood" reconstruction, we consider a simple PET imaging system and we use maximum-likelihood methods to first estimate a parameter vector for each pair of gamma-ray photons that is detected by the hardware. The collection of these parameter vectors forms a list, which is then fed to another maximum-likelihood algorithm for volumetric reconstruction over a grid of voxels. Efficient parallel implementation of the algorithms discussed above is then presented. In this work, we take advantage of two low-cost, mass-produced computing platforms that have recently appeared on the market, and we provide some details on implementing our algorithms on these devices. We conclude this dissertation work by elaborating on a possible application of list-mode data to X-ray digital mammography. We argue that today's CMOS detectors and computing platforms have become fast enough to make X-ray digital mammography list-mode data acquisition and processing feasible.

Empirical Bayes Gaussian likelihood estimation of exposure distributions from pooled samples in human biomonitoring.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Kuk, Anthony Y C; Xu, Jinfeng

2014-12-10

Human biomonitoring of exposure to environmental chemicals is important. Individual monitoring is not viable because of low individual exposure level or insufficient volume of materials and the prohibitive cost of taking measurements from many subjects. Pooling of samples is an efficient and cost-effective way to collect data. Estimation is, however, complicated as individual values within each pool are not observed but are only known up to their average or weighted average. The distribution of such averages is intractable when the individual measurements are lognormally distributed, which is a common assumption. We propose to replace the intractable distribution of the pool averages by a Gaussian likelihood to obtain parameter estimates. If the pool size is large, this method produces statistically efficient estimates, but regardless of pool size, the method yields consistent estimates as the number of pools increases. An empirical Bayes (EB) Gaussian likelihood approach, as well as its Bayesian analog, is developed to pool information from various demographic groups by using a mixed-effect formulation. We also discuss methods to estimate the underlying mean-variance relationship and to select a good model for the means, which can be incorporated into the proposed EB or Bayes framework. By borrowing strength across groups, the EB estimator is more efficient than the individual group-specific estimator. Simulation results show that the EB Gaussian likelihood estimates outperform a previous method proposed for the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys with much smaller bias and better coverage in interval estimation, especially after correction of bias. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hybrid approach combining chemometrics and likelihood ratio framework for reporting the evidential value of spectra.

PubMed

Martyna, Agnieszka; Zadora, Grzegorz; Neocleous, Tereza; Michalska, Aleksandra; Dean, Nema

2016-08-10

Many chemometric tools are invaluable and have proven effective in data mining and substantial dimensionality reduction of highly multivariate data. This becomes vital for interpreting various physicochemical data due to rapid development of advanced analytical techniques, delivering much information in a single measurement run. This concerns especially spectra, which are frequently used as the subject of comparative analysis in e.g. forensic sciences. In the presented study the microtraces collected from the scenarios of hit-and-run accidents were analysed. Plastic containers and automotive plastics (e.g. bumpers, headlamp lenses) were subjected to Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and car paints were analysed using Raman spectroscopy. In the forensic context analytical results must be interpreted and reported according to the standards of the interpretation schemes acknowledged in forensic sciences using the likelihood ratio approach. However, for proper construction of LR models for highly multivariate data, such as spectra, chemometric tools must be employed for substantial data compression. Conversion from classical feature representation to distance representation was proposed for revealing hidden data peculiarities and linear discriminant analysis was further applied for minimising the within-sample variability while maximising the between-sample variability. Both techniques enabled substantial reduction of data dimensionality. Univariate and multivariate likelihood ratio models were proposed for such data. It was shown that the combination of chemometric tools and the likelihood ratio approach is capable of solving the comparison problem of highly multivariate and correlated data after proper extraction of the most relevant features and variance information hidden in the data structure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT): Describing dependence and underlying uncertainty using a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, Mojtaba; Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-06-01

We present a newly developed Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT) which includes a wide range of copula families with different levels of complexity. MvCAT employs a Bayesian framework with a residual-based Gaussian likelihood function for inferring copula parameters and estimating the underlying uncertainties. The contribution of this paper is threefold: (a) providing a Bayesian framework to approximate the predictive uncertainties of fitted copulas, (b) introducing a hybrid-evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for numerical estimation of the posterior distribution of copula parameters, and (c) enabling the community to explore a wide range of copulas and evaluate them relative to the fitting uncertainties. We show that the commonly used local optimization methods for copula parameter estimation often get trapped in local minima. The proposed method, however, addresses this limitation and improves describing the dependence structure. MvCAT also enables evaluation of uncertainties relative to the length of record, which is fundamental to a wide range of applications such as multivariate frequency analysis.

Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) Toolkit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Venkatesh, Meera; Kapadia, Ravi; Walker, Mark; Wilkins, Kim

2013-01-01

A framework of software components has been implemented to facilitate the development of ISHM systems according to a methodology based on Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM). This framework is collectively referred to as the Toolkit and was developed using General Atomics' Health MAP (TM) technology. The toolkit is intended to provide assistance to software developers of mission-critical system health monitoring applications in the specification, implementation, configuration, and deployment of such applications. In addition to software tools designed to facilitate these objectives, the toolkit also provides direction to software developers in accordance with an ISHM specification and development methodology. The development tools are based on an RCM approach for the development of ISHM systems. This approach focuses on defining, detecting, and predicting the likelihood of system functional failures and their undesirable consequences.

PREMIX: PRivacy-preserving EstiMation of Individual admiXture.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Dow, Michelle; Ding, Sijie; Lu, Yao; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Tang, Hua; Wang, Shuang

2016-01-01

In this paper we proposed a framework: PRivacy-preserving EstiMation of Individual admiXture (PREMIX) using Intel software guard extensions (SGX). SGX is a suite of software and hardware architectures to enable efficient and secure computation over confidential data. PREMIX enables multiple sites to securely collaborate on estimating individual admixture within a secure enclave inside Intel SGX. We implemented a feature selection module to identify most discriminative Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) based on informativeness and an Expectation Maximization (EM)-based Maximum Likelihood estimator to identify the individual admixture. Experimental results based on both simulation and 1000 genome data demonstrated the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework. PREMIX ensures a high level of security as all operations on sensitive genomic data are conducted within a secure enclave using SGX.

Bayesian Image Segmentations by Potts Prior and Loopy Belief Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Kazuyuki; Kataoka, Shun; Yasuda, Muneki; Waizumi, Yuji; Hsu, Chiou-Ting

2014-12-01

This paper presents a Bayesian image segmentation model based on Potts prior and loopy belief propagation. The proposed Bayesian model involves several terms, including the pairwise interactions of Potts models, and the average vectors and covariant matrices of Gauss distributions in color image modeling. These terms are often referred to as hyperparameters in statistical machine learning theory. In order to determine these hyperparameters, we propose a new scheme for hyperparameter estimation based on conditional maximization of entropy in the Potts prior. The algorithm is given based on loopy belief propagation. In addition, we compare our conditional maximum entropy framework with the conventional maximum likelihood framework, and also clarify how the first order phase transitions in loopy belief propagations for Potts models influence our hyperparameter estimation procedures.

Decreasing Wait Times and Increasing Patient Satisfaction: A Lean Six Sigma Approach.

PubMed

Godley, Mary; Jenkins, Jeanne B

2018-06-08

Patient satisfaction scores in the vascular interventional radiology department were low, especially related to wait times in registration and for tests/treatments, with low scores for intentions to recommend. The purpose of our quality improvement project was to decrease wait times and improve patient satisfaction using Lean Six Sigma's define, measure, analyze, improve, and control (DMAIC) framework with a pre-/postintervention design. There was a statistically significant decrease in wait times (P < .0019) and an increase in patient satisfaction scores in 3 areas: registration wait times (from 17 to 99 percentiles), test/treatment (from 19 to 60 percentiles), and likelihood to recommend (from 6 to 97 percentiles). Lean Six Sigma was an effective framework for use in decreasing wait times and improving patient satisfaction.

The l z ( p ) * Person-Fit Statistic in an Unfolding Model Context.

PubMed

Tendeiro, Jorge N

2017-01-01

Although person-fit analysis has a long-standing tradition within item response theory, it has been applied in combination with dominance response models almost exclusively. In this article, a popular log likelihood-based parametric person-fit statistic under the framework of the generalized graded unfolding model is used. Results from a simulation study indicate that the person-fit statistic performed relatively well in detecting midpoint response style patterns and not so well in detecting extreme response style patterns.

Sex hormones, sex hormone binding globulin, and vertebral fractures in older men.

PubMed

Cawthon, Peggy M; Schousboe, John T; Harrison, Stephanie L; Ensrud, Kristine E; Black, Dennis; Cauley, Jane A; Cummings, Steven R; LeBlanc, Erin S; Laughlin, Gail A; Nielson, Carrie M; Broughton, Augusta; Kado, Deborah M; Hoffman, Andrew R; Jamal, Sophie A; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Orwoll, Eric S

2016-03-01

The association between sex hormones and sex hormone binding globin (SHBG) with vertebral fractures in men is not well studied. In these analyses, we determined whether sex hormones and SHBG were associated with greater likelihood of vertebral fractures in a prospective cohort study of community dwelling older men. We included data from participants in MrOS who had been randomly selected for hormone measurement (N=1463, including 1054 with follow-up data 4.6years later). Major outcomes included prevalent vertebral fracture (semi-quantitative grade≥2, N=140, 9.6%) and new or worsening vertebral fracture (change in SQ grade≥1, N=55, 5.2%). Odds ratios per SD decrease in sex hormones and per SD increase in SHBG were estimated with logistic regression adjusted for potentially confounding factors, including age, bone mineral density, and other sex hormones. Higher SHBG was associated with a greater likelihood of prevalent vertebral fractures (OR: 1.38 per SD increase, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.72). Total estradiol analyzed as a continuous variable was not associated with prevalent vertebral fractures (OR per SD decrease: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.68 to 1.10). Men with total estradiol values ≤17pg/ml had a borderline higher likelihood of prevalent fracture than men with higher values (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 0.99, 2.16). There was no association between total testosterone and prevalent fracture. In longitudinal analyses, SHBG (OR: 1.42 per SD increase, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.95) was associated with new or worsening vertebral fracture, but there was no association with total estradiol or total testosterone. In conclusion, higher SHBG (but not testosterone or estradiol) is an independent risk factor for vertebral fractures in older men. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous maximum a posteriori longitudinal PET image reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Sam; Reader, Andrew J.

2017-09-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) is frequently used to monitor functional changes that occur over extended time scales, for example in longitudinal oncology PET protocols that include routine clinical follow-up scans to assess the efficacy of a course of treatment. In these contexts PET datasets are currently reconstructed into images using single-dataset reconstruction methods. Inspired by recently proposed joint PET-MR reconstruction methods, we propose to reconstruct longitudinal datasets simultaneously by using a joint penalty term in order to exploit the high degree of similarity between longitudinal images. We achieved this by penalising voxel-wise differences between pairs of longitudinal PET images in a one-step-late maximum a posteriori (MAP) fashion, resulting in the MAP simultaneous longitudinal reconstruction (SLR) method. The proposed method reduced reconstruction errors and visually improved images relative to standard maximum likelihood expectation-maximisation (ML-EM) in simulated 2D longitudinal brain tumour scans. In reconstructions of split real 3D data with inserted simulated tumours, noise across images reconstructed with MAP-SLR was reduced to levels equivalent to doubling the number of detected counts when using ML-EM. Furthermore, quantification of tumour activities was largely preserved over a variety of longitudinal tumour changes, including changes in size and activity, with larger changes inducing larger biases relative to standard ML-EM reconstructions. Similar improvements were observed for a range of counts levels, demonstrating the robustness of the method when used with a single penalty strength. The results suggest that longitudinal regularisation is a simple but effective method of improving reconstructed PET images without using resolution degrading priors.

Does better taxon sampling help? A new phylogenetic hypothesis for Sepsidae (Diptera: Cyclorrhapha) based on 50 new taxa and the same old mitochondrial and nuclear markers.

PubMed

Zhao, Lei; Annie, Ang Shi Hui; Amrita, Srivathsan; Yi, Su Kathy Feng; Rudolf, Meier

2013-10-01

We here present a phylogenetic hypothesis for Sepsidae (Diptera: Cyclorrhapha), a group of schizophoran flies with ca. 320 described species that is widely used in sexual selection research. The hypothesis is based on five nuclear and five mitochondrial markers totaling 8813 bp for ca. 30% of the diversity (105 sepsid taxa) and - depending on analysis - six or nine outgroup species. Maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML), and Bayesian inferences (BI) yield overall congruent, well-resolved, and supported trees that are largely unaffected by three different ways to partition the data in BI and ML analyses. However, there are also five areas of uncertainty that affect suprageneric relationships where different analyses yield alternate topologies and MP and ML trees have significant conflict according to Shimodaira-Hasegawa tests. Two of these were already affected by conflict in a previous analysis that was based on the same genes and a subset of 69 species. The remaining three involve newly added taxa or genera whose relationships were previously resolved with low support. We thus find that the denser taxon sample in the present analysis does not reduce the topological conflict that had been identified previously. The present study nevertheless presents a significant contribution to the understanding of sepsid relationships in that 50 additional taxa from 18 genera are added to the Tree-of-Life of Sepsidae and that the placement of most taxa is well supported and robust to different tree reconstruction techniques. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Depth of interaction decoding of a continuous crystal detector module.

PubMed

Ling, T; Lewellen, T K; Miyaoka, R S

2007-04-21

We present a clustering method to extract the depth of interaction (DOI) information from an 8 mm thick crystal version of our continuous miniature crystal element (cMiCE) small animal PET detector. This clustering method, based on the maximum-likelihood (ML) method, can effectively build look-up tables (LUT) for different DOI regions. Combined with our statistics-based positioning (SBP) method, which uses a LUT searching algorithm based on the ML method and two-dimensional mean-variance LUTs of light responses from each photomultiplier channel with respect to different gamma ray interaction positions, the position of interaction and DOI can be estimated simultaneously. Data simulated using DETECT2000 were used to help validate our approach. An experiment using our cMiCE detector was designed to evaluate the performance. Two and four DOI region clustering were applied to the simulated data. Two DOI regions were used for the experimental data. The misclassification rate for simulated data is about 3.5% for two DOI regions and 10.2% for four DOI regions. For the experimental data, the rate is estimated to be approximately 25%. By using multi-DOI LUTs, we also observed improvement of the detector spatial resolution, especially for the corner region of the crystal. These results show that our ML clustering method is a consistent and reliable way to characterize DOI in a continuous crystal detector without requiring any modifications to the crystal or detector front end electronics. The ability to characterize the depth-dependent light response function from measured data is a major step forward in developing practical detectors with DOI positioning capability.

Balanced VS Imbalanced Training Data: Classifying Rapideye Data with Support Vector Machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ustuner, M.; Sanli, F. B.; Abdikan, S.

2016-06-01

The accuracy of supervised image classification is highly dependent upon several factors such as the design of training set (sample selection, composition, purity and size), resolution of input imagery and landscape heterogeneity. The design of training set is still a challenging issue since the sensitivity of classifier algorithm at learning stage is different for the same dataset. In this paper, the classification of RapidEye imagery with balanced and imbalanced training data for mapping the crop types was addressed. Classification with imbalanced training data may result in low accuracy in some scenarios. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifications were implemented here to classify the data. For evaluating the influence of the balanced and imbalanced training data on image classification algorithms, three different training datasets were created. Two different balanced datasets which have 70 and 100 pixels for each class of interest and one imbalanced dataset in which each class has different number of pixels were used in classification stage. Results demonstrate that ML and NN classifications are affected by imbalanced training data in resulting a reduction in accuracy (from 90.94% to 85.94% for ML and from 91.56% to 88.44% for NN) while SVM is not affected significantly (from 94.38% to 94.69%) and slightly improved. Our results highlighted that SVM is proven to be a very robust, consistent and effective classifier as it can perform very well under balanced and imbalanced training data situations. Furthermore, the training stage should be precisely and carefully designed for the need of adopted classifier.

Challenges in Species Tree Estimation Under the Multispecies Coalescent Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Bo; Yang, Ziheng

2016-01-01

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model has emerged as a powerful framework for inferring species phylogenies while accounting for ancestral polymorphism and gene tree-species tree conflict. A number of methods have been developed in the past few years to estimate the species tree under the MSC. The full likelihood methods (including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference) average over the unknown gene trees and accommodate their uncertainties properly but involve intensive computation. The approximate or summary coalescent methods are computationally fast and are applicable to genomic datasets with thousands of loci, but do not make an efficient use of information in the multilocus data. Most of them take the two-step approach of reconstructing the gene trees for multiple loci by phylogenetic methods and then treating the estimated gene trees as observed data, without accounting for their uncertainties appropriately. In this article we review the statistical nature of the species tree estimation problem under the MSC, and explore the conceptual issues and challenges of species tree estimation by focusing mainly on simple cases of three or four closely related species. We use mathematical analysis and computer simulation to demonstrate that large differences in statistical performance may exist between the two classes of methods. We illustrate that several counterintuitive behaviors may occur with the summary methods but they are due to inefficient use of information in the data by summary methods and vanish when the data are analyzed using full-likelihood methods. These include (i) unidentifiability of parameters in the model, (ii) inconsistency in the so-called anomaly zone, (iii) singularity on the likelihood surface, and (iv) deterioration of performance upon addition of more data. We discuss the challenges and strategies of species tree inference for distantly related species when the molecular clock is violated, and highlight the need for improving the computational efficiency and model realism of the likelihood methods as well as the statistical efficiency of the summary methods. PMID:27927902

Risk Associated with the Release of Wolbachia-Infected Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes into the Environment in an Effort to Control Dengue.

PubMed

Murray, Justine V; Jansen, Cassie C; De Barro, Paul

2016-01-01

In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduction of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia pipientis into the mosquito Aedes aegypti to reduce its ability to transmit dengue fever due to life shortening and inhibition of viral replication effects. An analysis of risk was required before considering release of the modified mosquito into the environment. Expert knowledge and a risk assessment framework were used to identify risk associated with the release of the modified mosquito. Individual and group expert elicitation was performed to identify potential hazards. A Bayesian network (BN) was developed to capture the relationship between hazards and the likelihood of events occurring. Risk was calculated from the expert likelihood estimates populating the BN and the consequence estimates elicited from experts. The risk model for "Don't Achieve Release" provided an estimated 46% likelihood that the release would not occur by a nominated time but generated an overall risk rating of very low. The ability to obtain compliance had the greatest influence on the likelihood of release occurring. The risk model for "Cause More Harm" provided a 12.5% likelihood that more harm would result from the release, but the overall risk was considered negligible. The efficacy of mosquito management had the most influence, with the perception that the threat of dengue fever had been eliminated, resulting in less household mosquito control, and was scored as the highest ranked individual hazard (albeit low risk). The risk analysis was designed to incorporate the interacting complexity of hazards that may affect the release of the technology into the environment. The risk analysis was a small, but important, implementation phase in the success of this innovative research introducing a new technology to combat dengue transmission in the environment.

CellML and associated tools and techniques.

PubMed

Garny, Alan; Nickerson, David P; Cooper, Jonathan; Weber dos Santos, Rodrigo; Miller, Andrew K; McKeever, Steve; Nielsen, Poul M F; Hunter, Peter J

2008-09-13

We have, in the last few years, witnessed the development and availability of an ever increasing number of computer models that describe complex biological structures and processes. The multi-scale and multi-physics nature of these models makes their development particularly challenging, not only from a biological or biophysical viewpoint but also from a mathematical and computational perspective. In addition, the issue of sharing and reusing such models has proved to be particularly problematic, with the published models often lacking information that is required to accurately reproduce the published results. The International Union of Physiological Sciences Physiome Project was launched in 1997 with the aim of tackling the aforementioned issues by providing a framework for the modelling of the human body. As part of this initiative, the specifications of the CellML mark-up language were released in 2001. Now, more than 7 years later, the time has come to assess the situation, in particular with regard to the tools and techniques that are now available to the modelling community. Thus, after introducing CellML, we review and discuss existing editors, validators, online repository, code generators and simulation environments, as well as the CellML Application Program Interface. We also address possible future directions including the need for additional mark-up languages.

Computer vision and machine learning for robust phenotyping in genome-wide studies

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jiaoping; Naik, Hsiang Sing; Assefa, Teshale; Sarkar, Soumik; Reddy, R. V. Chowda; Singh, Arti; Ganapathysubramanian, Baskar; Singh, Asheesh K.

2017-01-01

Traditional evaluation of crop biotic and abiotic stresses are time-consuming and labor-intensive limiting the ability to dissect the genetic basis of quantitative traits. A machine learning (ML)-enabled image-phenotyping pipeline for the genetic studies of abiotic stress iron deficiency chlorosis (IDC) of soybean is reported. IDC classification and severity for an association panel of 461 diverse plant-introduction accessions was evaluated using an end-to-end phenotyping workflow. The workflow consisted of a multi-stage procedure including: (1) optimized protocols for consistent image capture across plant canopies, (2) canopy identification and registration from cluttered backgrounds, (3) extraction of domain expert informed features from the processed images to accurately represent IDC expression, and (4) supervised ML-based classifiers that linked the automatically extracted features with expert-rating equivalent IDC scores. ML-generated phenotypic data were subsequently utilized for the genome-wide association study and genomic prediction. The results illustrate the reliability and advantage of ML-enabled image-phenotyping pipeline by identifying previously reported locus and a novel locus harboring a gene homolog involved in iron acquisition. This study demonstrates a promising path for integrating the phenotyping pipeline into genomic prediction, and provides a systematic framework enabling robust and quicker phenotyping through ground-based systems. PMID:28272456

No evidence for the use of DIR, D–D fusions, chromosome 15 open reading frames or VHreplacement in the peripheral repertoire was found on application of an improved algorithm, JointML, to 6329 human immunoglobulin H rearrangements

PubMed Central

Ohm-Laursen, Line; Nielsen, Morten; Larsen, Stine R; Barington, Torben

2006-01-01

Antibody diversity is created by imprecise joining of the variability (V), diversity (D) and joining (J) gene segments of the heavy and light chain loci. Analysis of rearrangements is complicated by somatic hypermutations and uncertainty concerning the sources of gene segments and the precise way in which they recombine. It has been suggested that D genes with irregular recombination signal sequences (DIR) and chromosome 15 open reading frames (OR15) can replace conventional D genes, that two D genes or inverted D genes may be used and that the repertoire can be further diversified by heavy chain V gene (VH) replacement. Safe conclusions require large, well-defined sequence samples and algorithms minimizing stochastic assignment of segments. Two computer programs were developed for analysis of heavy chain joints. JointHMM is a profile hidden Markow model, while JointML is a maximum-likelihood-based method taking the lengths of the joint and the mutational status of the VH gene into account. The programs were applied to a set of 6329 clonally unrelated rearrangements. A conventional D gene was found in 80% of unmutated sequences and 64% of mutated sequences, while D-gene assignment was kept below 5% in artificial (randomly permutated) rearrangements. No evidence for the use of DIR, OR15, multiple D genes or VH replacements was found, while inverted D genes were used in less than 1‰ of the sequences. JointML was shown to have a higher predictive performance for D-gene assignment in mutated and unmutated sequences than four other publicly available programs. An online version 1·0 of JointML is available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/VDJsolver. PMID:17005006