Meta-analysis: accuracy of rapid tests for malaria in travelers returning from endemic areas.

PubMed

Marx, Arthur; Pewsner, Daniel; Egger, Matthias; Nüesch, Reto; Bucher, Heiner C; Genton, Blaise; Hatz, Christoph; Jüni, Peter

2005-05-17

Microscopic diagnosis of malaria is unreliable outside specialized centers. Rapid tests have become available in recent years, but their accuracy has not been assessed systematically. To determine the accuracy of rapid diagnostic tests for ruling out malaria in nonimmune travelers returning from malaria-endemic areas. The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CAB Health, and CINAHL (1988 to September 2004); hand-searched conference proceedings; checked reference lists; and contacted experts and manufacturers. Diagnostic accuracy studies in nonimmune individuals with suspected malaria were included if they compared rapid tests with expert microscopic examination or polymerase chain reaction tests. Data on study and patient characteristics and results were extracted in duplicate. The main outcome was the likelihood ratio for a negative test result (negative likelihood ratio) for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Likelihood ratios were combined by using random-effects meta-analysis, stratified by the antigen targeted (histidine-rich protein-2 [HRP-2] or parasite lactate dehydrogenase [LDH]) and by test generation. Nomograms of post-test probabilities were constructed. The authors included 21 studies and 5747 individuals. For P. falciparum, HRP-2-based tests were more accurate than parasite LDH-based tests: Negative likelihood ratios were 0.08 and 0.13, respectively (P = 0.019 for difference). Three-band HRP-2 tests had similar negative likelihood ratios but higher positive likelihood ratios compared with 2-band tests (34.7 vs. 98.5; P = 0.003). For P. vivax, negative likelihood ratios tended to be closer to 1.0 for HRP-2-based tests than for parasite LDH-based tests (0.24 vs. 0.13; P = 0.22), but analyses were based on a few heterogeneous studies. Negative likelihood ratios for the diagnosis of P. malariae or P. ovale were close to 1.0 for both types of tests. In febrile travelers returning from sub-Saharan Africa, the typical probability of P. falciparum malaria is estimated at 1.1% (95% CI, 0.6% to 1.9%) after a negative 3-band HRP-2 test result and 97% (CI, 92% to 99%) after a positive test result. Few studies evaluated 3-band HRP-2 tests. The evidence is also limited for species other than P. falciparum because of the few available studies and their more heterogeneous results. Further studies are needed to determine whether the use of rapid diagnostic tests improves outcomes in returning travelers with suspected malaria. Rapid malaria tests may be a useful diagnostic adjunct to microscopy in centers without major expertise in tropical medicine. Initial decisions on treatment initiation and choice of antimalarial drugs can be based on travel history and post-test probabilities after rapid testing. Expert microscopy is still required for species identification and confirmation.

Three regularities of recognition memory: the role of bias.

PubMed

Hilford, Andrew; Maloney, Laurence T; Glanzer, Murray; Kim, Kisok

2015-12-01

A basic assumption of Signal Detection Theory is that decisions are made on the basis of likelihood ratios. In a preceding paper, Glanzer, Hilford, and Maloney (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 16, 431-455, 2009) showed that the likelihood ratio assumption implies that three regularities will occur in recognition memory: (1) the Mirror Effect, (2) the Variance Effect, (3) the normalized Receiver Operating Characteristic (z-ROC) Length Effect. The paper offered formal proofs and computational demonstrations that decisions based on likelihood ratios produce the three regularities. A survey of data based on group ROCs from 36 studies validated the likelihood ratio assumption by showing that its three implied regularities are ubiquitous. The study noted, however, that bias, another basic factor in Signal Detection Theory, can obscure the Mirror Effect. In this paper we examine how bias affects the regularities at the theoretical level. The theoretical analysis shows: (1) how bias obscures the Mirror Effect, not the other two regularities, and (2) four ways to counter that obscuring. We then report the results of five experiments that support the theoretical analysis. The analyses and the experimental results also demonstrate: (1) that the three regularities govern individual, as well as group, performance, (2) alternative explanations of the regularities are ruled out, and (3) that Signal Detection Theory, correctly applied, gives a simple and unified explanation of recognition memory data.

Diagnostic Performance of Narrow Band Imaging for Nasopharyngeal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Changling; Zhang, Yayun; Han, Xue; Du, Xiaodong

2018-03-01

Objective The purposes of this study were to verify the effectiveness of the narrow band imaging (NBI) system in diagnosing nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) as compared with white light endoscopy. Data Sources PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, CNKI, and Wan Fang databases. Review Methods Data analyses were performed with Meta-Disc. The updated Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool was used to assess study quality and potential bias. Publication bias was assessed with a Deeks asymmetry test. The registry number of the protocol published on PROSPERO is CRD42015026244. Results This meta-analysis included 10 studies of 1337 lesions. For NBI diagnosis of NPC, the pooled values were as follows: sensitivity, 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86); specificity, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.89-0.93); positive likelihood ratio, 8.82 (95% CI, 5.12-15.21); negative likelihood ratio, 0.18 (95% CI, 0.12-0.27); and diagnostic odds ratio, 65.73 (95% CI, 36.74-117.60). The area under the curve was 0.9549. For white light endoscopy in diagnosing NPC, the pooled values were as follows: sensitivity, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.83); specificity, 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.90); positive likelihood ratio, 5.02 (95% CI, 1.99-12.65); negative likelihood ratio, 0.34 (95% CI, 0.24-0.49); and diagnostic odds ratio, 16.89 (95% CI, 5.98-47.66). The area under the curve was 0.8627. The evaluation of heterogeneity, calculated per the diagnostic odds ratio, gave an I 2 of 0.326. No marked publication bias ( P = .68) existed in this meta-analysis. Conclusion The sensitivity and specificity of NBI for the diagnosis of NPC are similar to those of white light endoscopy, and the potential value of NBI for the diagnosis of NPC needs to be validated further.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Coronary Computed Tomography Before Aortic Valve Replacement: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chaikriangkrai, Kongkiat; Jhun, Hye Yeon; Shantha, Ghanshyam Palamaner Subash; Abdulhak, Aref Bin; Tandon, Rudhir; Alqasrawi, Musab; Klappa, Anthony; Pancholy, Samir; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Bhama, Jay; Sigurdsson, Gardar

2018-07-01

In aortic stenosis patients referred for surgical and transcatheter aortic valve replacement (AVR), the evidence of diagnostic accuracy of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) has been limited. The objective of this study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of CCTA for significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients referred for AVR using invasive coronary angiography (ICA) as the gold standard. We searched databases for all diagnostic studies of CCTA in patients referred for AVR, which reported diagnostic testing characteristics on patient-based analysis required to pool summary sensitivity, specificity, positive-likelihood ratio, and negative-likelihood ratio. Significant CAD in both CCTA and ICA was defined by >50% stenosis in any coronary artery, coronary stent, or bypass graft. Thirteen studies evaluated 1498 patients (mean age, 74 y; 47% men; 76% transcatheter AVR). The pooled prevalence of significant stenosis determined by ICA was 43%. Hierarchical summary receiver-operating characteristic analysis demonstrated a summary area under curve of 0.96. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and positive-likelihood and negative-likelihood ratios of CCTA in identifying significant stenosis determined by ICA were 95%, 79%, 4.48, and 0.06, respectively. In subgroup analysis, the diagnostic profiles of CCTA were comparable between surgical and transcatheter AVR. Despite the higher prevalence of significant CAD in patients with aortic stenosis than with other valvular heart diseases, our meta-analysis has shown that CCTA has a suitable diagnostic accuracy profile as a gatekeeper test for ICA. Our study illustrates a need for further study of the potential role of CCTA in preoperative planning for AVR.

Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics.

PubMed

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Rey-Bellet, Luc

2016-03-14

We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.

Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc

2016-03-01

We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.

Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc

2016-03-14

We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systemsmore » with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.« less

Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Lisboa, Renato; Mansouri, Kaweh; Zangwill, Linda M; Weinreb, Robert N; Medeiros, Felipe A

2013-11-01

To present a methodology for calculating likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis for continuous retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurements from spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (spectral-domain OCT). Observational cohort study. A total of 262 eyes of 187 patients with glaucoma and 190 eyes of 100 control subjects were included in the study. Subjects were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations Glaucoma Study. Eyes with preperimetric and perimetric glaucomatous damage were included in the glaucoma group. The control group was composed of healthy eyes with normal visual fields from subjects recruited from the general population. All eyes underwent RNFL imaging with Spectralis spectral-domain OCT. Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis were estimated for specific global RNFL thickness measurements using a methodology based on estimating the tangents to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Likelihood ratios could be determined for continuous values of average RNFL thickness. Average RNFL thickness values lower than 86 μm were associated with positive likelihood ratios (ie, likelihood ratios greater than 1), whereas RNFL thickness values higher than 86 μm were associated with negative likelihood ratios (ie, likelihood ratios smaller than 1). A modified Fagan nomogram was provided to assist calculation of posttest probability of disease from the calculated likelihood ratios and pretest probability of disease. The methodology allowed calculation of likelihood ratios for specific RNFL thickness values. By avoiding arbitrary categorization of test results, it potentially allows for an improved integration of test results into diagnostic clinical decision making. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An empirical likelihood ratio test robust to individual heterogeneity for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq.

PubMed

Xu, Maoqi; Chen, Liang

2018-01-01

The individual sample heterogeneity is one of the biggest obstacles in biomarker identification for complex diseases such as cancers. Current statistical models to identify differentially expressed genes between disease and control groups often overlook the substantial human sample heterogeneity. Meanwhile, traditional nonparametric tests lose detailed data information and sacrifice the analysis power, although they are distribution free and robust to heterogeneity. Here, we propose an empirical likelihood ratio test with a mean-variance relationship constraint (ELTSeq) for the differential expression analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-seq). As a distribution-free nonparametric model, ELTSeq handles individual heterogeneity by estimating an empirical probability for each observation without making any assumption about read-count distribution. It also incorporates a constraint for the read-count overdispersion, which is widely observed in RNA-seq data. ELTSeq demonstrates a significant improvement over existing methods such as edgeR, DESeq, t-tests, Wilcoxon tests and the classic empirical likelihood-ratio test when handling heterogeneous groups. It will significantly advance the transcriptomics studies of cancers and other complex disease. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mapping Quantitative Traits in Unselected Families: Algorithms and Examples

PubMed Central

Dupuis, Josée; Shi, Jianxin; Manning, Alisa K.; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Meigs, James B.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Siegmund, David

2009-01-01

Linkage analysis has been widely used to identify from family data genetic variants influencing quantitative traits. Common approaches have both strengths and limitations. Likelihood ratio tests typically computed in variance component analysis can accommodate large families but are highly sensitive to departure from normality assumptions. Regression-based approaches are more robust but their use has primarily been restricted to nuclear families. In this paper, we develop methods for mapping quantitative traits in moderately large pedigrees. Our methods are based on the score statistic which in contrast to the likelihood ratio statistic, can use nonparametric estimators of variability to achieve robustness of the false positive rate against departures from the hypothesized phenotypic model. Because the score statistic is easier to calculate than the likelihood ratio statistic, our basic mapping methods utilize relatively simple computer code that performs statistical analysis on output from any program that computes estimates of identity-by-descent. This simplicity also permits development and evaluation of methods to deal with multivariate and ordinal phenotypes, and with gene-gene and gene-environment interaction. We demonstrate our methods on simulated data and on fasting insulin, a quantitative trait measured in the Framingham Heart Study. PMID:19278016

Performance of the likelihood ratio difference (G2 Diff) test for detecting unidimensionality in applications of the multidimensional Rasch model.

PubMed

Harrell-Williams, Leigh; Wolfe, Edward W

2014-01-01

Previous research has investigated the influence of sample size, model misspecification, test length, ability distribution offset, and generating model on the likelihood ratio difference test in applications of item response models. This study extended that research to the evaluation of dimensionality using the multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model (MRCMLM). Logistic regression analysis of simulated data reveal that sample size and test length have a large effect on the capacity of the LR difference test to correctly identify unidimensionality, with shorter tests and smaller sample sizes leading to smaller Type I error rates. Higher levels of simulated misfit resulted in fewer incorrect decisions than data with no or little misfit. However, Type I error rates indicate that the likelihood ratio difference test is not suitable under any of the simulated conditions for evaluating dimensionality in applications of the MRCMLM.

Usefulness of Two Aspergillus PCR Assays and Aspergillus Galactomannan and β-d-Glucan Testing of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Diagnosis of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis

PubMed Central

Urabe, Naohisa; Sano, Go; Suzuki, Junko; Hebisawa, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Koyama, Kazuya; Ishii, Yoshikazu; Tateda, Kazuhiro; Homma, Sakae

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT We evaluated the usefulness of an Aspergillus galactomannan (GM) test, a β-d-glucan (βDG) test, and two different Aspergillus PCR assays of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples for the diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). BALF samples from 30 patients with and 120 patients without CPA were collected. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each test individually and in combination with other tests. The optical density index values, as determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis, for the diagnosis of CPA were 0.5 and 100 for GM and βDG testing of BALF, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the GM test, βDG test, and PCR assays 1 and 2 were 77.8% and 90.0%, 77.8% and 72.5%, 86.7% and 84.2%, and 66.7% and 94.2%, respectively. A comparison of the PCR assays showed that PCR assay 1 had a better sensitivity, a better negative predictive value, and a better negative likelihood ratio and PCR assay 2 had a better specificity, a better positive predictive value, and a better positive likelihood ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests had the highest diagnostic odds ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests on BALF was more useful than any single test for diagnosing CPA. PMID:28330887

Approximate likelihood approaches for detecting the influence of primordial gravitational waves in cosmic microwave background polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Zhen; Anderes, Ethan; Knox, Lloyd

2018-05-01

One of the major targets for next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments is the detection of the primordial B-mode signal. Planning is under way for Stage-IV experiments that are projected to have instrumental noise small enough to make lensing and foregrounds the dominant source of uncertainty for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from polarization maps. This makes delensing a crucial part of future CMB polarization science. In this paper we present a likelihood method for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from CMB polarization observations, which combines the benefits of a full-scale likelihood approach with the tractability of the quadratic delensing technique. This method is a pixel space, all order likelihood analysis of the quadratic delensed B modes, and it essentially builds upon the quadratic delenser by taking into account all order lensing and pixel space anomalies. Its tractability relies on a crucial factorization of the pixel space covariance matrix of the polarization observations which allows one to compute the full Gaussian approximate likelihood profile, as a function of r , at the same computational cost of a single likelihood evaluation.

Hybrid approach combining chemometrics and likelihood ratio framework for reporting the evidential value of spectra.

PubMed

Martyna, Agnieszka; Zadora, Grzegorz; Neocleous, Tereza; Michalska, Aleksandra; Dean, Nema

2016-08-10

Many chemometric tools are invaluable and have proven effective in data mining and substantial dimensionality reduction of highly multivariate data. This becomes vital for interpreting various physicochemical data due to rapid development of advanced analytical techniques, delivering much information in a single measurement run. This concerns especially spectra, which are frequently used as the subject of comparative analysis in e.g. forensic sciences. In the presented study the microtraces collected from the scenarios of hit-and-run accidents were analysed. Plastic containers and automotive plastics (e.g. bumpers, headlamp lenses) were subjected to Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and car paints were analysed using Raman spectroscopy. In the forensic context analytical results must be interpreted and reported according to the standards of the interpretation schemes acknowledged in forensic sciences using the likelihood ratio approach. However, for proper construction of LR models for highly multivariate data, such as spectra, chemometric tools must be employed for substantial data compression. Conversion from classical feature representation to distance representation was proposed for revealing hidden data peculiarities and linear discriminant analysis was further applied for minimising the within-sample variability while maximising the between-sample variability. Both techniques enabled substantial reduction of data dimensionality. Univariate and multivariate likelihood ratio models were proposed for such data. It was shown that the combination of chemometric tools and the likelihood ratio approach is capable of solving the comparison problem of highly multivariate and correlated data after proper extraction of the most relevant features and variance information hidden in the data structure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test for drug safety signal detection.

PubMed

Huang, Lan; Zheng, Dan; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram

2017-02-01

In recent decades, numerous methods have been developed for data mining of large drug safety databases, such as Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Adverse Event Reporting System, where data matrices are formed by drugs such as columns and adverse events as rows. Often, a large number of cells in these data matrices have zero cell counts and some of them are "true zeros" indicating that the drug-adverse event pairs cannot occur, and these zero counts are distinguished from the other zero counts that are modeled zero counts and simply indicate that the drug-adverse event pairs have not occurred yet or have not been reported yet. In this paper, a zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is proposed to identify drug-adverse event pairs that have disproportionately high reporting rates, which are also called signals. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test are obtained using the expectation and maximization algorithm. The zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test is also modified to handle the stratified analyses for binary and categorical covariates (e.g. gender and age) in the data. The proposed zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is shown to asymptotically control the type I error and false discovery rate, and its finite sample performance for signal detection is evaluated through a simulation study. The simulation results show that the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method performs similar to Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method when the estimated percentage of true zeros in the database is small. Both the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test and likelihood ratio test methods are applied to six selected drugs, from the 2006 to 2011 Adverse Event Reporting System database, with varying percentages of observed zero-count cells.

Performance and sensitivity analysis of the generalized likelihood ratio method for failure detection. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bueno, R. A.

1977-01-01

Results of the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) technique for the detection of failures in aircraft application are presented, and its relationship to the properties of the Kalman-Bucy filter is examined. Under the assumption that the system is perfectly modeled, the detectability and distinguishability of four failure types are investigated by means of analysis and simulations. Detection of failures is found satisfactory, but problems in identifying correctly the mode of a failure may arise. These issues are closely examined as well as the sensitivity of GLR to modeling errors. The advantages and disadvantages of this technique are discussed, and various modifications are suggested to reduce its limitations in performance and computational complexity.

Search for Point Sources of Ultra-High-Energy Cosmic Rays above 4.0 × 1019 eV Using a Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, R. U.; Abu-Zayyad, T.; Amann, J. F.; Archbold, G.; Atkins, R.; Bellido, J. A.; Belov, K.; Belz, J. W.; Ben-Zvi, S. Y.; Bergman, D. R.; Boyer, J. H.; Burt, G. W.; Cao, Z.; Clay, R. W.; Connolly, B. M.; Dawson, B. R.; Deng, W.; Farrar, G. R.; Fedorova, Y.; Findlay, J.; Finley, C. B.; Hanlon, W. F.; Hoffman, C. M.; Holzscheiter, M. H.; Hughes, G. A.; Hüntemeyer, P.; Jui, C. C. H.; Kim, K.; Kirn, M. A.; Knapp, B. C.; Loh, E. C.; Maestas, M. M.; Manago, N.; Mannel, E. J.; Marek, L. J.; Martens, K.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthews, J. N.; O'Neill, A.; Painter, C. A.; Perera, L.; Reil, K.; Riehle, R.; Roberts, M. D.; Sasaki, M.; Schnetzer, S. R.; Seman, M.; Simpson, K. M.; Sinnis, G.; Smith, J. D.; Snow, R.; Sokolsky, P.; Song, C.; Springer, R. W.; Stokes, B. T.; Thomas, J. R.; Thomas, S. B.; Thomson, G. B.; Tupa, D.; Westerhoff, S.; Wiencke, L. R.; Zech, A.

2005-04-01

We present the results of a search for cosmic-ray point sources at energies in excess of 4.0×1019 eV in the combined data sets recorded by the Akeno Giant Air Shower Array and High Resolution Fly's Eye stereo experiments. The analysis is based on a maximum likelihood ratio test using the probability density function for each event rather than requiring an a priori choice of a fixed angular bin size. No statistically significant clustering of events consistent with a point source is found.

Likelihood Ratio Tests for Special Rasch Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hessen, David J.

2010-01-01

In this article, a general class of special Rasch models for dichotomous item scores is considered. Although Andersen's likelihood ratio test can be used to test whether a Rasch model fits to the data, the test does not differentiate between special Rasch models. Therefore, in this article, new likelihood ratio tests are proposed for testing…

Using latent class analysis to model prescription medications in the measurement of falling among a community elderly population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Falls among the elderly are a major public health concern. Therefore, the possibility of a modeling technique which could better estimate fall probability is both timely and needed. Using biomedical, pharmacological and demographic variables as predictors, latent class analysis (LCA) is demonstrated as a tool for the prediction of falls among community dwelling elderly. Methods Using a retrospective data-set a two-step LCA modeling approach was employed. First, we looked for the optimal number of latent classes for the seven medical indicators, along with the patients’ prescription medication and three covariates (age, gender, and number of medications). Second, the appropriate latent class structure, with the covariates, were modeled on the distal outcome (fall/no fall). The default estimator was maximum likelihood with robust standard errors. The Pearson chi-square, likelihood ratio chi-square, BIC, Lo-Mendell-Rubin Adjusted Likelihood Ratio test and the bootstrap likelihood ratio test were used for model comparisons. Results A review of the model fit indices with covariates shows that a six-class solution was preferred. The predictive probability for latent classes ranged from 84% to 97%. Entropy, a measure of classification accuracy, was good at 90%. Specific prescription medications were found to strongly influence group membership. Conclusions In conclusion the LCA method was effective at finding relevant subgroups within a heterogenous at-risk population for falling. This study demonstrated that LCA offers researchers a valuable tool to model medical data. PMID:23705639

Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to kinship problems.

PubMed

Slooten, Klaas-Jan; Egeland, Thore

2014-05-01

In forensic genetics, DNA profiles are compared in order to make inferences, paternity cases being a standard example. The statistical evidence can be summarized and reported in several ways. For example, in a paternity case, the likelihood ratio (LR) and the probability of not excluding a random man as father (RMNE) are two common summary statistics. There has been a long debate on the merits of the two statistics, also in the context of DNA mixture interpretation, and no general consensus has been reached. In this paper, we show that the RMNE is a certain weighted average of inverse likelihood ratios. This is true in any forensic context. We show that the likelihood ratio in favor of the correct hypothesis is, in expectation, bigger than the reciprocal of the RMNE probability. However, with the exception of pathological cases, it is also possible to obtain smaller likelihood ratios. We illustrate this result for paternity cases. Moreover, some theoretical properties of the likelihood ratio for a large class of general pairwise kinship cases, including expected value and variance, are derived. The practical implications of the findings are discussed and exemplified.

Usefulness of Two Aspergillus PCR Assays and Aspergillus Galactomannan and β-d-Glucan Testing of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Diagnosis of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis.

PubMed

Urabe, Naohisa; Sakamoto, Susumu; Sano, Go; Suzuki, Junko; Hebisawa, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Koyama, Kazuya; Ishii, Yoshikazu; Tateda, Kazuhiro; Homma, Sakae

2017-06-01

We evaluated the usefulness of an Aspergillus galactomannan (GM) test, a β-d-glucan (βDG) test, and two different Aspergillus PCR assays of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples for the diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). BALF samples from 30 patients with and 120 patients without CPA were collected. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each test individually and in combination with other tests. The optical density index values, as determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis, for the diagnosis of CPA were 0.5 and 100 for GM and βDG testing of BALF, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the GM test, βDG test, and PCR assays 1 and 2 were 77.8% and 90.0%, 77.8% and 72.5%, 86.7% and 84.2%, and 66.7% and 94.2%, respectively. A comparison of the PCR assays showed that PCR assay 1 had a better sensitivity, a better negative predictive value, and a better negative likelihood ratio and PCR assay 2 had a better specificity, a better positive predictive value, and a better positive likelihood ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests had the highest diagnostic odds ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests on BALF was more useful than any single test for diagnosing CPA. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Likelihood Ratios for the Emergency Physician.

PubMed

Peng, Paul; Coyle, Andrew

2018-04-26

The concept of likelihood ratios was introduced more than 40 years ago, yet this powerful metric has still not seen wider application or discussion in the medical decision-making process. There is concern that clinicians-in-training are still being taught an over-simplified approach to diagnostic test performance, and have limited exposure to likelihood ratios. Even for those familiar with likelihood ratios, they might perceive them as mathematically-cumbersome in application, if not difficult to determine for a particular disease process. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Likelihood ratio meta-analysis: New motivation and approach for an old method.

PubMed

Dormuth, Colin R; Filion, Kristian B; Platt, Robert W

2016-03-01

A 95% confidence interval (CI) in an updated meta-analysis may not have the expected 95% coverage. If a meta-analysis is simply updated with additional data, then the resulting 95% CI will be wrong because it will not have accounted for the fact that the earlier meta-analysis failed or succeeded to exclude the null. This situation can be avoided by using the likelihood ratio (LR) as a measure of evidence that does not depend on type-1 error. We show how an LR-based approach, first advanced by Goodman, can be used in a meta-analysis to pool data from separate studies to quantitatively assess where the total evidence points. The method works by estimating the log-likelihood ratio (LogLR) function from each study. Those functions are then summed to obtain a combined function, which is then used to retrieve the total effect estimate, and a corresponding 'intrinsic' confidence interval. Using as illustrations the CAPRIE trial of clopidogrel versus aspirin in the prevention of ischemic events, and our own meta-analysis of higher potency statins and the risk of acute kidney injury, we show that the LR-based method yields the same point estimate as the traditional analysis, but with an intrinsic confidence interval that is appropriately wider than the traditional 95% CI. The LR-based method can be used to conduct both fixed effect and random effects meta-analyses, it can be applied to old and new meta-analyses alike, and results can be presented in a format that is familiar to a meta-analytic audience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2005-01-01

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

PubMed

Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

2015-02-10

Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diagnostic value of sTREM-1 in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid in ICU patients with bacterial lung infections: a bivariate meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Jia-Xin; Li, Jia-Shu; Hu, Rong; Li, Chun-Hua; Wen, Yan; Zheng, Hong; Zhang, Feng; Li, Qin

2013-01-01

The serum soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1) is a useful biomarker in differentiating bacterial infections from others. However, the diagnostic value of sTREM-1 in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) in lung infections has not been well established. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the accuracy of sTREM-1 in BALF for diagnosis of bacterial lung infections in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. We searched PUBMED, EMBASE and Web of Knowledge (from January 1966 to October 2012) databases for relevant studies that reported diagnostic accuracy data of BALF sTREM-1 in the diagnosis of bacterial lung infections in ICU patients. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated by a bivariate regression analysis. Measures of accuracy and Q point value (Q*) were calculated using summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve. The potential between-studies heterogeneity was explored by subgroup analysis. Nine studies were included in the present meta-analysis. Overall, the prevalence was 50.6%; the sensitivity was 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.72-0.95); the specificity was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.56-0.92); the positive likelihood ratio (PLR) was 4.18 (95% CI, 1.78-9.86); the negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was 0.16 (95% CI, 0.07-0.36), and the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was 25.60 (95% CI, 7.28-89.93). The area under the SROC curve was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.93), with a Q* of 0.83. Subgroup analysis showed that the assay method and cutoff value influenced the diagnostic accuracy of sTREM-1. BALF sTREM-1 is a useful biomarker of bacterial lung infections in ICU patients. Further studies are needed to confirm the optimized cutoff value.

Identifying Malignant Pleural Effusion by A Cancer Ratio (Serum LDH: Pleural Fluid ADA Ratio).

PubMed

Verma, Akash; Abisheganaden, John; Light, R W

2016-02-01

We studied the diagnostic potential of serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in malignant pleural effusion. Retrospective analysis of patients hospitalized with exudative pleural effusion in 2013. Serum LDH and serum LDH: pleural fluid ADA ratio was significantly higher in cancer patients presenting with exudative pleural effusion. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, pleural fluid ADA was negatively correlated 0.62 (0.45-0.85, p = 0.003) with malignancy, whereas serum LDH 1.02 (1.0-1.03, p = 0.004) and serum LDH: pleural fluid ADA ratio 0.94 (0.99-1.0, p = 0.04) was correlated positively with malignant pleural effusion. For serum LDH: pleural fluid ADA ratio, a cut-off level of >20 showed sensitivity, specificity of 0.98 (95 % CI 0.92-0.99) and 0.94 (95 % CI 0.83-0.98), respectively. The positive likelihood ratio was 32.6 (95 % CI 10.7-99.6), while the negative likelihood ratio at this cut-off was 0.03 (95 % CI 0.01-0.15). Higher serum LDH and serum LDH: pleural fluid ADA ratio in patients presenting with exudative pleural effusion can distinguish between malignant and non-malignant effusion on the first day of hospitalization. The cut-off level for serum LDH: pleural fluid ADA ratio of >20 is highly predictive of malignancy in patients with exudative pleural effusion (whether lymphocytic or neutrophilic) with high sensitivity and specificity.

A New Monte Carlo Method for Estimating Marginal Likelihoods.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Bo; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Lynn; Lewis, Paul O

2018-06-01

Evaluating the marginal likelihood in Bayesian analysis is essential for model selection. Estimators based on a single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample from the posterior distribution include the harmonic mean estimator and the inflated density ratio estimator. We propose a new class of Monte Carlo estimators based on this single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample. This class can be thought of as a generalization of the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators using a partition weighted kernel (likelihood times prior). We show that our estimator is consistent and has better theoretical properties than the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators. In addition, we provide guidelines on choosing optimal weights. Simulation studies were conducted to examine the empirical performance of the proposed estimator. We further demonstrate the desirable features of the proposed estimator with two real data sets: one is from a prostate cancer study using an ordinal probit regression model with latent variables; the other is for the power prior construction from two Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group phase III clinical trials using the cure rate survival model with similar objectives.

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review to Assess the Role of Soluble FMS-Like Tyrosine Kinase-1 and Placenta Growth Factor Ratio in Prediction of Preeclampsia: The SaPPPhirE Study.

PubMed

Agrawal, Swati; Cerdeira, Ana Sofia; Redman, Christopher; Vatish, Manu

2018-02-01

Preeclampsia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Numerous candidate biomarkers have been proposed for diagnosis and prediction of preeclampsia. Measurement of maternal circulating angiogenesis biomarker as the ratio of sFlt-1 (soluble FMS-like tyrosine kinase-1; an antiangiogenic factor)/PlGF (placental growth factor; an angiogenic factor) reflects the antiangiogenic balance that characterizes incipient or overt preeclampsia. The ratio increases before the onset of the disease and thus may help in predicting preeclampsia. We conducted a meta-analysis to explore the predictive accuracy of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio in preeclampsia. We included 15 studies with 534 cases with preeclampsia and 19 587 controls. The ratio has a pooled sensitivity of 80% (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.88), specificity of 92% (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.96), positive likelihood ratio of 10.5 (95% confidence interval, 6.2-18.0), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.22 (95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.35) in predicting preeclampsia in both high- and low-risk patients. Most of the studies have not made a distinction between early- and late-onset disease, and therefore, the analysis for it could not be done. It can prove to be a valuable screening tool for preeclampsia and may also help in decision-making, treatment stratification, and better resource allocation. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Gaussian Mixture Models of Between-Source Variation for Likelihood Ratio Computation from Multivariate Data

PubMed Central

Franco-Pedroso, Javier; Ramos, Daniel; Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Joaquin

2016-01-01

In forensic science, trace evidence found at a crime scene and on suspect has to be evaluated from the measurements performed on them, usually in the form of multivariate data (for example, several chemical compound or physical characteristics). In order to assess the strength of that evidence, the likelihood ratio framework is being increasingly adopted. Several methods have been derived in order to obtain likelihood ratios directly from univariate or multivariate data by modelling both the variation appearing between observations (or features) coming from the same source (within-source variation) and that appearing between observations coming from different sources (between-source variation). In the widely used multivariate kernel likelihood-ratio, the within-source distribution is assumed to be normally distributed and constant among different sources and the between-source variation is modelled through a kernel density function (KDF). In order to better fit the observed distribution of the between-source variation, this paper presents a different approach in which a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used instead of a KDF. As it will be shown, this approach provides better-calibrated likelihood ratios as measured by the log-likelihood ratio cost (Cllr) in experiments performed on freely available forensic datasets involving different trace evidences: inks, glass fragments and car paints. PMID:26901680

Likelihood ratio-based differentiation of nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma in patients with sonographically evident diffuse hashimoto thyroiditis: preliminary study.

PubMed

Wang, Liang; Xia, Yu; Jiang, Yu-Xin; Dai, Qing; Li, Xiao-Yi

2012-11-01

To assess the efficacy of sonography for discriminating nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis from papillary thyroid carcinoma in patients with sonographically evident diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis. This study included 20 patients with 24 surgically confirmed Hashimoto thyroiditis nodules and 40 patients with 40 papillary thyroid carcinoma nodules; all had sonographically evident diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis. A retrospective review of the sonograms was performed, and significant benign and malignant sonographic features were selected by univariate and multivariate analyses. The combined likelihood ratio was calculated as the product of each feature's likelihood ratio for papillary thyroid carcinoma. We compared the abilities of the original sonographic features and combined likelihood ratios in diagnosing nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma by their sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index. The diagnostic capabilities of the sonographic features varied greatly, with Youden indices ranging from 0.175 to 0.700. Compared with single features, combinations of features were unable to improve the Youden indices effectively because the sensitivity and specificity usually changed in opposite directions. For combined likelihood ratios, however, the sensitivity improved greatly without an obvious reduction in specificity, which resulted in the maximum Youden index (0.825). With a combined likelihood ratio greater than 7.00 as the diagnostic criterion for papillary thyroid carcinoma, sensitivity reached 82.5%, whereas specificity remained at 100.0%. With a combined likelihood ratio less than 1.00 for nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis, sensitivity and specificity were 90.0% and 92.5%, respectively. Several sonographic features of nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma in a background of diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis were significantly different. The combined likelihood ratio may be superior to original sonographic features for discrimination of nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis from papillary thyroid carcinoma; therefore, it is a promising risk index for thyroid nodules and warrants further investigation.

A Computer-Aided Diagnosis System for Breast Cancer Combining Mammography and Proteomics

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-01

findings in both Data sets C and M. The likelihood ratio is the probability of the features un- der the malignant case divided by the probability of...likelihood ratio value as a classification decision variable, the probabilities of detection and false alarm are calculated as follows: Pdfusion...lowered the fused classifier’s performance to near chance levels. A genetic algorithm searched over the likelihood- ratio thresh- old values for each

Measuring coherence of computer-assisted likelihood ratio methods.

PubMed

Haraksim, Rudolf; Ramos, Daniel; Meuwly, Didier; Berger, Charles E H

2015-04-01

Measuring the performance of forensic evaluation methods that compute likelihood ratios (LRs) is relevant for both the development and the validation of such methods. A framework of performance characteristics categorized as primary and secondary is introduced in this study to help achieve such development and validation. Ground-truth labelled fingerprint data is used to assess the performance of an example likelihood ratio method in terms of those performance characteristics. Discrimination, calibration, and especially the coherence of this LR method are assessed as a function of the quantity and quality of the trace fingerprint specimen. Assessment of the coherence revealed a weakness of the comparison algorithm in the computer-assisted likelihood ratio method used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic Performance of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid CD4/CD8 Ratio for Sarcoidosis: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shen, Yongchun; Pang, Caishuang; Wu, Yanqiu; Li, Diandian; Wan, Chun; Liao, Zenglin; Yang, Ting; Chen, Lei; Wen, Fuqiang

2016-06-01

The usefulness of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) CD4/CD8 ratio for diagnosing sarcoidosis has been reported in many studies with variable results. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate the overall diagnostic accuracy of BALF CD4/CD8 ratio based on the bulk of published evidence. Studies published prior to June 2015 and indexed in PubMed, OVID, Web of Science, Scopus and other databases were evaluated for inclusion. Data on sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were pooled from included studies. Summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves were used to summarize overall test performance. Deeks's funnel plot was used to detect publication bias. Sixteen publications with 1885 subjects met our inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. Summary estimates of the diagnostic performance of the BALF CD4/CD8 ratio were as follows: sensitivity, 0.70 (95%CI 0.64-0.75); specificity, 0.83 (95%CI 0.78-0.86); PLR, 4.04 (95%CI 3.13-5.20); NLR, 0.36 (95%CI 0.30-0.44); and DOR, 11.17 (95%CI 7.31-17.07). The area under the SROC curve was 0.84 (95%CI 0.81-0.87). There was no evidence of publication bias. Measuring the BALF CD4/CD8 ratio may assist in the diagnosis of sarcoidosis when interpreted in parallel with other diagnostic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of case-parent trios at a locus with a deletion allele: association of GSTM1 with autism.

PubMed

Buyske, Steven; Williams, Tanishia A; Mars, Audrey E; Stenroos, Edward S; Ming, Sue X; Wang, Rong; Sreenath, Madhura; Factura, Marivic F; Reddy, Chitra; Lambert, George H; Johnson, William G

2006-02-10

Certain loci on the human genome, such as glutathione S-transferase M1 (GSTM1), do not permit heterozygotes to be reliably determined by commonly used methods. Association of such a locus with a disease is therefore generally tested with a case-control design. When subjects have already been ascertained in a case-parent design however, the question arises as to whether the data can still be used to test disease association at such a locus. A likelihood ratio test was constructed that can be used with a case-parents design but has somewhat less power than a Pearson's chi-squared test that uses a case-control design. The test is illustrated on a novel dataset showing a genotype relative risk near 2 for the homozygous GSTM1 deletion genotype and autism. Although the case-control design will remain the mainstay for a locus with a deletion, the likelihood ratio test will be useful for such a locus analyzed as part of a larger case-parent study design. The likelihood ratio test has the advantage that it can incorporate complete and incomplete case-parent trios as well as independent cases and controls. Both analyses support (p = 0.046 for the proposed test, p = 0.028 for the case-control analysis) an association of the homozygous GSTM1 deletion genotype with autism.

Analysis of case-parent trios at a locus with a deletion allele: association of GSTM1 with autism

PubMed Central

Buyske, Steven; Williams, Tanishia A; Mars, Audrey E; Stenroos, Edward S; Ming, Sue X; Wang, Rong; Sreenath, Madhura; Factura, Marivic F; Reddy, Chitra; Lambert, George H; Johnson, William G

2006-01-01

Background Certain loci on the human genome, such as glutathione S-transferase M1 (GSTM1), do not permit heterozygotes to be reliably determined by commonly used methods. Association of such a locus with a disease is therefore generally tested with a case-control design. When subjects have already been ascertained in a case-parent design however, the question arises as to whether the data can still be used to test disease association at such a locus. Results A likelihood ratio test was constructed that can be used with a case-parents design but has somewhat less power than a Pearson's chi-squared test that uses a case-control design. The test is illustrated on a novel dataset showing a genotype relative risk near 2 for the homozygous GSTM1 deletion genotype and autism. Conclusion Although the case-control design will remain the mainstay for a locus with a deletion, the likelihood ratio test will be useful for such a locus analyzed as part of a larger case-parent study design. The likelihood ratio test has the advantage that it can incorporate complete and incomplete case-parent trios as well as independent cases and controls. Both analyses support (p = 0.046 for the proposed test, p = 0.028 for the case-control analysis) an association of the homozygous GSTM1 deletion genotype with autism. PMID:16472391

Likelihood analysis of the chalcone synthase genes suggests the role of positive selection in morning glories (Ipomoea).

PubMed

Yang, Ji; Gu, Hongya; Yang, Ziheng

2004-01-01

Chalcone synthase (CHS) is a key enzyme in the biosynthesis of flavonoides, which are important for the pigmentation of flowers and act as attractants to pollinators. Genes encoding CHS constitute a multigene family in which the copy number varies among plant species and functional divergence appears to have occurred repeatedly. In morning glories (Ipomoea), five functional CHS genes (A-E) have been described. Phylogenetic analysis of the Ipomoea CHS gene family revealed that CHS A, B, and C experienced accelerated rates of amino acid substitution relative to CHS D and E. To examine whether the CHS genes of the morning glories underwent adaptive evolution, maximum-likelihood models of codon substitution were used to analyze the functional sequences in the Ipomoea CHS gene family. These models used the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio (omega = d(N)/ d(S)) as an indicator of selective pressure and allowed the ratio to vary among lineages or sites. Likelihood ratio test suggested significant variation in selection pressure among amino acid sites, with a small proportion of them detected to be under positive selection along the branches ancestral to CHS A, B, and C. Positive Darwinian selection appears to have promoted the divergence of subfamily ABC and subfamily DE and is at least partially responsible for a rate increase following gene duplication.

Bayesian Hierarchical Random Effects Models in Forensic Science.

PubMed

Aitken, Colin G G

2018-01-01

Statistical modeling of the evaluation of evidence with the use of the likelihood ratio has a long history. It dates from the Dreyfus case at the end of the nineteenth century through the work at Bletchley Park in the Second World War to the present day. The development received a significant boost in 1977 with a seminal work by Dennis Lindley which introduced a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model for the evaluation of evidence with an example of refractive index measurements on fragments of glass. Many models have been developed since then. The methods have now been sufficiently well-developed and have become so widespread that it is timely to try and provide a software package to assist in their implementation. With that in mind, a project (SAILR: Software for the Analysis and Implementation of Likelihood Ratios) was funded by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes through their Monopoly programme to develop a software package for use by forensic scientists world-wide that would assist in the statistical analysis and implementation of the approach based on likelihood ratios. It is the purpose of this document to provide a short review of a small part of this history. The review also provides a background, or landscape, for the development of some of the models within the SAILR package and references to SAILR as made as appropriate.

Diagnostic performance of instantaneous wave-free ratio for the evaluation of coronary stenosis severity confirmed by fractional flow reserve: A PRISMA-compliant meta-analysis of randomized studies.

PubMed

Man, Wanrong; Hu, Jianqiang; Zhao, Zhijing; Zhang, Mingming; Wang, Tingting; Lin, Jie; Duan, Yu; Wang, Ling; Wang, Haichang; Sun, Dongdong; Li, Yan

2016-09-01

The instantaneous wave-free ratio (iFR) is a new vasodilator-free index of coronary stenosis severity. The aim of this meta-analysis is to assess the diagnostic performance of iFR for the evaluation of coronary stenosis severity with fractional flow reserve as standard reference. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, CENTRAL, ProQuest, Web of Science, and International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) for publications concerning the diagnostic value of iFR. We used a random-effects covariate to synthesize the available data of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). Overall test performance was summarized by the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (sROC) and the area under the curve (AUC). Eight studies with 1611 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, LR+, LR-, and DOR for iFR were respectively 73.3% (70.1-76.2%), 86.4% (84.3-88.3%), 5.71 (4.43-7.37), 0.29 (0.22-0.38), and 20.54 (16.11-26.20). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves for iFR was 0.8786. No publication bias was identified. The available evidence suggests that iFR may be a new, simple, and promising technology for coronary stenosis physiological assessment.

Quantitative Shear Wave Velocity Measurement on Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Elastography for Differential Diagnosis between Benign and Malignant Thyroid Nodules: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Bo-Ji; Li, Dan-Dan; Xu, Hui-Xiong; Guo, Le-Hang; Zhang, Yi-Feng; Xu, Jun-Mei; Liu, Chang; Liu, Lin-Na; Li, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xiao-Hong; Qu, Shen; Xing, Mingzhao

2015-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of quantitative shear wave velocity (SWV) measurement on acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) elastography for differentiation between benign and malignant thyroid nodules using meta-analysis. The databases of PubMed and the Web of Science were searched. Studies published in English on assessment of the sensitivity and specificity of ARFI elastography for the differentiation of thyroid nodules were collected. The quantitative measurement of ARFI elastography was evaluated by SWV (m/s). Meta-Disc Version 1.4 software was used to describe and calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio and summary receiver operating characteristic curves. We analyzed a total of 13 studies, which included 1,854 thyroid nodules (including 1,339 benign nodules and 515 malignant nodules) from 1,641 patients. The summary sensitivity and specificity for differential diagnosis between benign and malignant thyroid nodules by SWV were 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.84) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.81-0.86), respectively. The pooled positive and negative likelihood ratios were 5.21 (95% CI: 3.56-7.62) and 0.23 (95% CI: 0.17-0.32), respectively. The pooled diagnostic odds ratio was 27.53 (95% CI: 14.58-52.01), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.91 (Q* = 0.84). In conclusion, SWV measurement on ARFI elastography has high sensitivity and specificity for differential diagnosis between benign and malignant thyroid nodules and can be used in combination with conventional ultrasound. Copyright © 2015 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Choosing relatives for DNA identification of missing persons.

PubMed

Ge, Jianye; Budowle, Bruce; Chakraborty, Ranajit

2011-01-01

DNA-based analysis is integral to missing person identification cases. When direct references are not available, indirect relative references can be used to identify missing persons by kinship analysis. Generally, more reference relatives render greater accuracy of identification. However, it is costly to type multiple references. Thus, at times, decisions may need to be made on which relatives to type. In this study, pedigrees for 37 common reference scenarios with 13 CODIS STRs were simulated to rank the information content of different combinations of relatives. The results confirm that first-order relatives (parents and fullsibs) are the most preferred relatives to identify missing persons; fullsibs are also informative. Less genetic dependence between references provides a higher on average likelihood ratio. Distant relatives may not be helpful solely by autosomal markers. But lineage-based Y chromosome and mitochondrial DNA markers can increase the likelihood ratio or serve as filters to exclude putative relationships. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Near-exact distributions for the block equicorrelation and equivariance likelihood ratio test statistic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, Carlos A.; Marques, Filipe J.

2013-09-01

In this paper the authors combine the equicorrelation and equivariance test introduced by Wilks [13] with the likelihood ratio test (l.r.t.) for independence of groups of variables to obtain the l.r.t. of block equicorrelation and equivariance. This test or its single block version may find applications in many areas as in psychology, education, medicine, genetics and they are important "in many tests of multivariate analysis, e.g. in MANOVA, Profile Analysis, Growth Curve analysis, etc" [12, 9]. By decomposing the overall hypothesis into the hypotheses of independence of groups of variables and the hypothesis of equicorrelation and equivariance we are able to obtain the expressions for the overall l.r.t. statistic and its moments. From these we obtain a suitable factorization of the characteristic function (c.f.) of the logarithm of the l.r.t. statistic, which enables us to develop highly manageable and precise near-exact distributions for the test statistic.

Interpreting DNA mixtures with the presence of relatives.

PubMed

Hu, Yue-Qing; Fung, Wing K

2003-02-01

The assessment of DNA mixtures with the presence of relatives is discussed in this paper. The kinship coefficients are incorporated into the evaluation of the likelihood ratio and we first derive a unified expression of joint genotypic probabilities. A general formula and seven types of detailed expressions for calculating likelihood ratios are then developed for the case that a relative of the tested suspect is an unknown contributor to the mixed stain. These results can also be applied to the case of a non-tested suspect with one tested relative. Moreover, the formula for calculating the likelihood ratio when there are two related unknown contributors is given. Data for a real situation are given for illustration, and the effect of kinship on the likelihood ratio is shown therein. Some interesting findings are obtained.

An Adjusted Likelihood Ratio Approach Analysing Distribution of Food Products to Assist the Investigation of Foodborne Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Norström, Madelaine; Kristoffersen, Anja Bråthen; Görlach, Franziska Sophie; Nygård, Karin; Hopp, Petter

2015-01-01

In order to facilitate foodborne outbreak investigations there is a need to improve the methods for identifying the food products that should be sampled for laboratory analysis. The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of a likelihood ratio approach previously developed on simulated data, to real outbreak data. We used human case and food product distribution data from the Norwegian enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli outbreak in 2006. The approach was adjusted to include time, space smoothing and to handle missing or misclassified information. The performance of the adjusted likelihood ratio approach on the data originating from the HUS outbreak and control data indicates that the adjusted approach is promising and indicates that the adjusted approach could be a useful tool to assist and facilitate the investigation of food borne outbreaks in the future if good traceability are available and implemented in the distribution chain. However, the approach needs to be further validated on other outbreak data and also including other food products than meat products in order to make a more general conclusion of the applicability of the developed approach. PMID:26237468

Diagnostic Accuracy of Natriuretic Peptides for Heart Failure in Patients with Pleural Effusion: A Systematic Review and Updated Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Cheng, Juan-Juan; Zhao, Shi-Di; Gao, Ming-Zhu; Huang, Hong-Yu; Gu, Bing; Ma, Ping; Chen, Yan; Wang, Jun-Hong; Yang, Cheng-Jian; Yan, Zi-He

2015-01-01

Background Previous studies have reported that natriuretic peptides in the blood and pleural fluid (PF) are effective diagnostic markers for heart failure (HF). These natriuretic peptides include N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP). This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates the diagnostic accuracy of blood and PF natriuretic peptides for HF in patients with pleural effusion. Methods PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify articles published in English that investigated the diagnostic accuracy of BNP, NT-proBNP, and MR-proANP for HF. The last search was performed on 9 October 2014. The quality of the eligible studies was assessed using the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool. The diagnostic performance characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, and other measures of accuracy) were pooled and examined using a bivariate model. Results In total, 14 studies were included in the meta-analysis, including 12 studies reporting the diagnostic accuracy of PF NT-proBNP and 4 studies evaluating blood NT-proBNP. The summary estimates of PF NT-proBNP for HF had a diagnostic sensitivity of 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.90–0.96), specificity of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.86–0.95), positive likelihood ratio of 10.9 (95% CI: 6.4–18.6), negative likelihood ratio of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.04–0.12), and diagnostic odds ratio of 157 (95% CI: 57–430). The overall sensitivity of blood NT-proBNP for diagnosis of HF was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86–0.95), with a specificity of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.77–0.94), positive likelihood ratio of 7.8 (95% CI: 3.7–16.3), negative likelihood ratio of 0.10 (95% CI: 0.06–0.16), and diagnostic odds ratio of 81 (95% CI: 27–241). The diagnostic accuracy of PF MR-proANP and blood and PF BNP was not analyzed due to the small number of related studies. Conclusions BNP, NT-proBNP, and MR-proANP, either in blood or PF, are effective tools for diagnosis of HF. Additional studies are needed to rigorously evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of PF and blood MR-proANP and BNP for the diagnosis of HF. PMID:26244664

Likelihood Ratios for Glaucoma Diagnosis Using Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography

PubMed Central

Lisboa, Renato; Mansouri, Kaweh; Zangwill, Linda M.; Weinreb, Robert N.; Medeiros, Felipe A.

2014-01-01

Purpose To present a methodology for calculating likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis for continuous retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurements from spectral domain optical coherence tomography (spectral-domain OCT). Design Observational cohort study. Methods 262 eyes of 187 patients with glaucoma and 190 eyes of 100 control subjects were included in the study. Subjects were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations Glaucoma Study. Eyes with preperimetric and perimetric glaucomatous damage were included in the glaucoma group. The control group was composed of healthy eyes with normal visual fields from subjects recruited from the general population. All eyes underwent RNFL imaging with Spectralis spectral-domain OCT. Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis were estimated for specific global RNFL thickness measurements using a methodology based on estimating the tangents to the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Likelihood ratios could be determined for continuous values of average RNFL thickness. Average RNFL thickness values lower than 86μm were associated with positive LRs, i.e., LRs greater than 1; whereas RNFL thickness values higher than 86μm were associated with negative LRs, i.e., LRs smaller than 1. A modified Fagan nomogram was provided to assist calculation of post-test probability of disease from the calculated likelihood ratios and pretest probability of disease. Conclusion The methodology allowed calculation of likelihood ratios for specific RNFL thickness values. By avoiding arbitrary categorization of test results, it potentially allows for an improved integration of test results into diagnostic clinical decision-making. PMID:23972303

Early pregnancy angiogenic markers and spontaneous abortion: an Odense Child Cohort study.

PubMed

Andersen, Louise B; Dechend, Ralf; Karumanchi, S Ananth; Nielsen, Jan; Joergensen, Jan S; Jensen, Tina K; Christesen, Henrik T

2016-11-01

Spontaneous abortion is the most commonly observed adverse pregnancy outcome. The angiogenic factors soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor are critical for normal pregnancy and may be associated to spontaneous abortion. We investigated the association between maternal serum concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor, and subsequent spontaneous abortion. In the prospective observational Odense Child Cohort, 1676 pregnant women donated serum in early pregnancy, gestational week <22 (median 83 days of gestation, interquartile range 71-103). Concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor were determined with novel automated assays. Spontaneous abortion was defined as complete or incomplete spontaneous abortion, missed abortion, or blighted ovum <22+0 gestational weeks, and the prevalence was 3.52% (59 cases). The time-dependent effect of maternal serum concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor on subsequent late first-trimester or second-trimester spontaneous abortion (n = 59) was evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, adjusting for body mass index, parity, season of blood sampling, and age. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristics were employed to identify predictive values and optimal cut-off values. In the adjusted Cox regression analysis, increasing continuous concentrations of both soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor were significantly associated with a decreased hazard ratio for spontaneous abortion: soluble Fms-like kinase 1, 0.996 (95% confidence interval, 0.995-0.997), and placental growth factor, 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.93). When analyzed by receiver operating characteristic cut-offs, women with soluble Fms-like kinase 1 <742 pg/mL had an odds ratio for spontaneous abortion of 12.1 (95% confidence interval, 6.64-22.2), positive predictive value of 11.70%, negative predictive value of 98.90%, positive likelihood ratio of 3.64 (3.07-4.32), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.30 (0.19-0.48). For placental growth factor <19.7 pg/mL, odds ratio was 13.2 (7.09-24.4), positive predictive value was 11.80%, negative predictive value was 99.0%, positive likelihood ratio was 3.68 (3.12-4.34), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (0.17-0.45). In the sensitivity analysis of 54 spontaneous abortions matched 1:4 to controls on gestational age at blood sampling, the highest area under the curve was seen for soluble Fms-like kinase 1 in prediction of first-trimester spontaneous abortion, 0.898 (0.834-0.962), and at the optimum cut-off of 725 pg/mL, negative predictive value was 51.4%, positive predictive value was 94.6%, positive likelihood ratio was 4.04 (2.57-6.35), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.22 (0.09-0.54). A strong, novel prospective association was identified between lower concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor measured in early pregnancy and spontaneous abortion. A soluble Fms-like kinase 1 cut-off <742 pg/mL in maternal serum was optimal to stratify women at high vs low risk of spontaneous abortion. The cause and effect of angiogenic factor alterations in spontaneous abortions remain to be elucidated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliable and More Powerful Methods for Power Analysis in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Zhang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Yanyun

2017-01-01

The normal-distribution-based likelihood ratio statistic T[subscript ml] = nF[subscript ml] is widely used for power analysis in structural Equation modeling (SEM). In such an analysis, power and sample size are computed by assuming that T[subscript ml] follows a central chi-square distribution under H[subscript 0] and a noncentral chi-square…

Causation or selection - examining the relation between education and overweight/obesity in prospective observational studies: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kim, T J; Roesler, N M; von dem Knesebeck, O

2017-06-01

Numerous studies have investigated the association between education and overweight/obesity. Yet less is known about the relative importance of causation (i.e. the influence of education on risks of overweight/obesity) and selection (i.e. the influence of overweight/obesity on the likelihood to attain education) hypotheses. A systematic review was performed to assess the linkage between education and overweight/obesity in prospective studies in general populations. Studies were searched within five databases, and study quality was appraised with the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. In total, 31 studies were considered for meta-analysis. Regarding causation (24 studies), the lower educated had a higher likelihood (odds ratio: 1.33, 1.21-1.47) and greater risk (risk ratio: 1.34, 1.08-1.66) for overweight/obesity, when compared with the higher educated. However, these associations were no longer statistically significant when accounting for publication bias. Concerning selection (seven studies), overweight/obese individuals had a greater likelihood of lower education (odds ratio: 1.57, 1.10-2.25), when contrasted with the non-overweight or non-obese. Subgroup analyses were performed by stratifying meta-analyses upon different factors. Relationships between education and overweight/obesity were affected by study region, age groups, gender and observation period. In conclusion, it is necessary to consider both causation and selection processes in order to tackle educational inequalities in obesity appropriately. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Maximum likelihood estimation of signal-to-noise ratio and combiner weight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalson, S.; Dolinar, S. J.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for estimating signal to noise ratio and combiner weight parameters for a discrete time series is presented. The algorithm is based upon the joint maximum likelihood estimate of the signal and noise power. The discrete-time series are the sufficient statistics obtained after matched filtering of a biphase modulated signal in additive white Gaussian noise, before maximum likelihood decoding is performed.

Ultrasound assessment of endometrial cavity in perimenopausal women on oral progesterone for abnormal uterine bleeding: comparison of diagnostic accuracy of imaging with hysteroscopy-guided biopsy.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Subhankar; Dasgupta, Shyamal; Sharma, Partha Pratim; Mukherjee, Amitabha; Ghosh, Tarun Kumar

2011-11-01

To investigate the effect of oral progesterone on the accuracy of imaging studies performed to detect endometrial pathology in comparison to hysteroscopy-guided biopsy in perimenopausal women on progesterone treatment for abnormal uterine bleeding. The study population comprised of women aged 40-55 years with complaints of abnormal uterine bleeding who were also undergoing oral progesterone therapy. Women with a uterus ≥ 12 weeks' gestation size, previous abnormal endometrial biopsy, cervical lesion on speculum examination, abnormal Pap smear, active pelvic infection, adnexal mass on clinical examination or during ultrasound scan and a positive pregnancy test were excluded. A transvaginal ultrasound followed by saline infusion sonography were done. On the following day, a hysteroscopy followed by a guided biopsy of the endometrium or any endometrial lesion was performed. Comparison between the results of the imaging study with the hysteroscopy and guided biopsy was done. The final analysis included 83 patients. For detection of overall pathology, polyp and fibroid transvaginal ultrasound had a positive likelihood ratio of 1.65, 5.45 and 5.4, respectively, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.47, 0.6 and 0.43, respectively. For detection of overall pathology, polyp and fibroid saline infusion sonography had a positive likelihood ratio of 4.4, 5.35 and 11.8, respectively, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.3, 0.2 and 0.15, respectively. In perimenopausal women on oral progesterone therapy for abnormal uterine bleeding, imaging studies cannot be considered as an accurate method for diagnosing endometrial pathology when compared to hysteroscopy and guided biopsy. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2011 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Likelihood analysis of spatial capture-recapture models for stratified or class structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Fuller, Angela K.; Sun, Catherine C.

2015-01-01

We develop a likelihood analysis framework for fitting spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models to data collected on class structured or stratified populations. Our interest is motivated by the necessity of accommodating the problem of missing observations of individual class membership. This is particularly problematic in SCR data arising from DNA analysis of scat, hair or other material, which frequently yields individual identity but fails to identify the sex. Moreover, this can represent a large fraction of the data and, given the typically small sample sizes of many capture-recapture studies based on DNA information, utilization of the data with missing sex information is necessary. We develop the class structured likelihood for the case of missing covariate values, and then we address the scaling of the likelihood so that models with and without class structured parameters can be formally compared regardless of missing values. We apply our class structured model to black bear data collected in New York in which sex could be determined for only 62 of 169 uniquely identified individuals. The models containing sex-specificity of both the intercept of the SCR encounter probability model and the distance coefficient, and including a behavioral response are strongly favored by log-likelihood. Estimated population sex ratio is strongly influenced by sex structure in model parameters illustrating the importance of rigorous modeling of sex differences in capture-recapture models.

A maximum likelihood convolutional decoder model vs experimental data comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, R. Y.

1979-01-01

This article describes the comparison of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) prediction model and the actual performance of the MCD at the Madrid Deep Space Station. The MCD prediction model is used to develop a subroutine that has been utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program (TAP) to compute the MCD bit error rate for a given signal-to-noise ratio. The results indicate that that the TAP can predict quite well compared to the experimental measurements. An optimal modulation index also can be found through TAP.

Procalcitonin as a Serum Biomarker for Differentiation of Bacterial Meningitis From Viral Meningitis in Children: Evidence From a Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Henry, Brandon Michael; Roy, Joyeeta; Ramakrishnan, Piravin Kumar; Vikse, Jens; Tomaszewski, Krzysztof A; Walocha, Jerzy A

2016-07-01

Several studies have explored the use of serum procalcitonin (PCT) in differentiating between bacterial and viral etiologies in children with suspected meningitis. We pooled these studies into a meta-analysis to determine the PCT diagnostic accuracy. All major databases were searched through March 2015. No date or language restrictions were applied. Eight studies (n = 616 pediatric patients) were included. Serum PCT assay was found to be very accurate for differentiating the etiology of pediatric meningitis with pooled sensitivity and specificity of 0.96 (95% CI = 0.92-0.98) and 0.89 (95% CI = 0.86-0.92), respectively. The pooled positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and area under the curve (AUC) for PCT were 7.5 (95% CI = 5.6-10.1), 0.08(95% CI = 0.04-0.14), 142.3 (95% CI = 59.5-340.4), and 0.97 (SE = 0.01), respectively. In 6 studies, PCT was found to be superior than CRP, whose DOR was only 16.7 (95%CI = 8.8-31.7). Our meta-analysis demonstrates that serum PCT assay is a highly accurate and powerful test for rapidly differentiating between bacterial and viral meningitis in children. © The Author(s) 2015.

SEMModComp: An R Package for Calculating Likelihood Ratio Tests for Mean and Covariance Structure Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2010-01-01

SEMModComp, a software package for conducting likelihood ratio tests for mean and covariance structure modeling is described. The package is written in R and freely available for download or on request.

Validation of software for calculating the likelihood ratio for parentage and kinship.

PubMed

Drábek, J

2009-03-01

Although the likelihood ratio is a well-known statistical technique, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software products for its calculation are not sufficiently validated to suit general requirements for the competence of testing and calibration laboratories (EN/ISO/IEC 17025:2005 norm) per se. The software in question can be considered critical as it directly weighs the forensic evidence allowing judges to decide on guilt or innocence or to identify person or kin (i.e.: in mass fatalities). For these reasons, accredited laboratories shall validate likelihood ratio software in accordance with the above norm. To validate software for calculating the likelihood ratio in parentage/kinship scenarios I assessed available vendors, chose two programs (Paternity Index and familias) for testing, and finally validated them using tests derived from elaboration of the available guidelines for the field of forensics, biomedicine, and software engineering. MS Excel calculation using known likelihood ratio formulas or peer-reviewed results of difficult paternity cases were used as a reference. Using seven testing cases, it was found that both programs satisfied the requirements for basic paternity cases. However, only a combination of two software programs fulfills the criteria needed for our purpose in the whole spectrum of functions under validation with the exceptions of providing algebraic formulas in cases of mutation and/or silent allele.

Three methods to construct predictive models using logistic regression and likelihood ratios to facilitate adjustment for pretest probability give similar results.

PubMed

Chan, Siew Foong; Deeks, Jonathan J; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les

2008-01-01

To compare three predictive models based on logistic regression to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios allowing for interdependency between diagnostic variables (tests). This study was a review of the theoretical basis, assumptions, and limitations of published models; and a statistical extension of methods and application to a case study of the diagnosis of obstructive airways disease based on history and clinical examination. Albert's method includes an offset term to estimate an adjusted likelihood ratio for combinations of tests. Spiegelhalter and Knill-Jones method uses the unadjusted likelihood ratio for each test as a predictor and computes shrinkage factors to allow for interdependence. Knottnerus' method differs from the other methods because it requires sequencing of tests, which limits its application to situations where there are few tests and substantial data. Although parameter estimates differed between the models, predicted "posttest" probabilities were generally similar. Construction of predictive models using logistic regression is preferred to the independence Bayes' approach when it is important to adjust for dependency of tests errors. Methods to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios from predictive models should be considered in preference to a standard logistic regression model to facilitate ease of interpretation and application. Albert's method provides the most straightforward approach.

Validation of DNA-based identification software by computation of pedigree likelihood ratios.

PubMed

Slooten, K

2011-08-01

Disaster victim identification (DVI) can be aided by DNA-evidence, by comparing the DNA-profiles of unidentified individuals with those of surviving relatives. The DNA-evidence is used optimally when such a comparison is done by calculating the appropriate likelihood ratios. Though conceptually simple, the calculations can be quite involved, especially with large pedigrees, precise mutation models etc. In this article we describe a series of test cases designed to check if software designed to calculate such likelihood ratios computes them correctly. The cases include both simple and more complicated pedigrees, among which inbred ones. We show how to calculate the likelihood ratio numerically and algebraically, including a general mutation model and possibility of allelic dropout. In Appendix A we show how to derive such algebraic expressions mathematically. We have set up these cases to validate new software, called Bonaparte, which performs pedigree likelihood ratio calculations in a DVI context. Bonaparte has been developed by SNN Nijmegen (The Netherlands) for the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI). It is available free of charge for non-commercial purposes (see www.dnadvi.nl for details). Commercial licenses can also be obtained. The software uses Bayesian networks and the junction tree algorithm to perform its calculations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is it possible to predict office hysteroscopy failure?

PubMed

Cobellis, Luigi; Castaldi, Maria Antonietta; Giordano, Valentino; De Franciscis, Pasquale; Signoriello, Giuseppe; Colacurci, Nicola

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a clinical tool, the HFI (Hysteroscopy Failure Index), which gives criteria to predict hysteroscopic examination failure. This was a retrospective diagnostic test study, aimed to validate the HFI, set at the Department of Gynaecology, Obstetric and Reproductive Science of the Second University of Naples, Italy. The HFI was applied to our database of 995 consecutive women, who underwent office based to assess abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB), infertility, cervical polyps, and abnormal sonographic patterns (postmenopausal endometrial thickness of more than 5mm, endometrial hyperechogenic spots, irregular endometrial line, suspect of uterine septa). Demographic characteristics, previous surgery, recurrent infections, sonographic data, Estro-Progestins, IUD and menopausal status were collected. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the ability of the model to identify patients who were correctly identified (true positives) divided by the total number of failed hysteroscopies (true positives+false negatives). Positive and Negative Likelihood Ratios with 95%CI were calculated. The HFI score is able to predict office hysteroscopy failure in 76% of cases. Moreover, the Positive likelihood ratio was 11.37 (95% CI: 8.49-15.21), and the Negative likelihood ratio was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.27-0.41). Hysteroscopy failure index was able to retrospectively predict office hysteroscopy failure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic Value of Endorectal Ultrasound in Preoperative Assessment of Lymph Node Involvement in Colorectal Cancer: a Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Li; Chen, Shi; Wang, Ke; Huang, Jiao; Liu, Li; Wei, Sheng; Gao, Hong-Yu

2015-01-01

Nodal invasion by colorectal cancer is a critical determinant in estimating patient survival and in choosing appropriate preoperative treatment. The present meta-analysis was designed to evaluate the diagnostic value of endorectal ultrasound (EUS) in preoperative assessment of lymph node involvement in colorectal cancer. We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases for relevant studies published on or before December 10th, 2014. The sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and area under the summary receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) were assessed to estimate the diagnostic value of EUS. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed to explore heterogeneity across studies. Thirty-three studies covering 3,016 subjects were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.69 (95%CI: 0.63-0.75) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.73-0.82), respectively. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 3.09 (95%CI: 2.52-3.78) and 0.39 (95%CI: 0.32-0.48), respectively. The DOR was 7.84 (95%CI: 5.56-11.08), and AUC was 0.80 (95%CI: 0.77-0.84). This meta-analysis indicated that EUS has moderate diagnostic value in preoperative assessment of lymph node involvement in colorectal cancer. Further refinements in technology and diagnostic criteria are necessary to improve the diagnostic accuracy of EUS.

Screening for postnatal depression in Chinese-speaking women using the Hong Kong translated version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale.

PubMed

Chen, Helen; Bautista, Dianne; Ch'ng, Ying Chia; Li, Wenyun; Chan, Edwin; Rush, A John

2013-06-01

The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) may not be a uniformly valid postnatal depression (PND) screen across populations. We evaluated the performance of a Chinese translation of 10-item (HK-EPDS) and six-item (HK-EPDS-6) versions in post-partum women in Singapore. Chinese-speaking post-partum obstetric clinic patients were recruited for this study. They completed the HK-EPDS, from which we derived the six-item HK-EPDS-6. All women were clinically assessed for PND based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, Fourth Edition-Text Revision criteria. Receiver-operator curve (ROC) analyses and likelihood ratio computations informed scale cutoff choices. Clinical fitness was judged by thresholds for internal consistency [α ≥ 0.70] and for diagnostic performance by true-positive rate (>85%), false-positive rate (≤10%), positive likelihood ratio (>1), negative likelihood ratio (<0.2), area under the ROC curve (AUC, ≥90%) and effect size (≥0.80). Based on clinical interview, prevalence of PND was 6.2% in 487 post-partum women. HK-EPDS internal consistency was 0.84. At 13 or more cutoff, the true-positive rate was 86.7%, false-positive rate 3.3%, positive likelihood ratio 26.4, negative likelihood ratio 0.14, AUC 94.4% and effect size 0.81. For the HK-EPDS-6, internal consistency was 0.76. At 8 or more cutoff, we found a true-positive rate of 86.7%, false-positive rate 6.6%, positive likelihood ratio 13.2, negative likelihood ration 0.14, AUC 92.9% and effect size 0.98. The HK-EPDS (cutoff ≥13) and HK-EPDS6 (cutoff ≥8) are fit for PND screening for general population post-partum women. The brief six-item version appears to be clinically suitable for quick screening in Chinese speaking women. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Evaluation of prostate cancer antigen 3 for detecting prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Yong; Cao, Wenzhou; Li, Quan; Shen, Hua; Liu, Chao; Deng, Junpeng; Xu, Jiangfeng; Shao, Qiang

2016-05-01

Previous studies indicate that prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) is highly expressed in prostatic tumors. However, its clinical value has not been characterized. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical value of the urine PCA3 test in the diagnosis of prostate cancer by pooling the published data. Clinical trials utilizing the urine PCA3 test for diagnosing prostate cancer were retrieved from PubMed and Embase. A total of 46 clinical trials including 12,295 subjects were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (+LR), negative likelihood ratio (-LR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and area under the curve (AUC) were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63-0.66), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.72-0.74), 2.23 (95% CI: 1.91-2.62), 0.48 (95% CI: 0.44-0.52), 5.31 (95% CI: 4.19-6.73) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74-0.77), respectively. In conclusion, the urine PCA3 test has acceptable sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of prostate cancer and can be used as a non-invasive method for that purpose.

Clinical Effectiveness of Prospectively Reported Sonographic Twinkling Artifact for the Diagnosis of Renal Calculus in Patients Without Known Urolithiasis.

PubMed

Masch, William R; Cohan, Richard H; Ellis, James H; Dillman, Jonathan R; Rubin, Jonathan M; Davenport, Matthew S

2016-02-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical effectiveness of prospectively reported sonographic twinkling artifact for the diagnosis of renal calculus in patients without known urolithiasis. All ultrasound reports finalized in one health system from June 15, 2011, to June 14, 2014, that contained the words "twinkle" or "twinkling" in reference to suspected renal calculus were identified. Patients with known urolithiasis or lack of a suitable reference standard (unenhanced abdominal CT with ≤ 2.5-mm slice thickness performed ≤ 30 days after ultrasound) were excluded. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio of sonographic twinkling artifact for the diagnosis of renal calculus were calculated by renal unit and stratified by two additional diagnostic features for calcification (echogenic focus, posterior acoustic shadowing). Eighty-five patients formed the study population. Isolated sonographic twinkling artifact had sensitivity of 0.78 (82/105), specificity of 0.40 (26/65), and a positive likelihood ratio of 1.30 for the diagnosis of renal calculus. Specificity and positive likelihood ratio improved and sensitivity declined when the following additional diagnostic features were present: sonographic twinkling artifact and echogenic focus (sensitivity, 0.61 [64/105]; specificity, 0.65 [42/65]; positive likelihood ratio, 1.72); sonographic twinkling artifact and posterior acoustic shadowing (sensitivity, 0.31 [33/105]; specificity, 0.95 [62/65]; positive likelihood ratio, 6.81); all three features (sensitivity, 0.31 [33/105]; specificity, 0.95 [62/65]; positive likelihood ratio, 6.81). Isolated sonographic twinkling artifact has a high false-positive rate (60%) for the diagnosis of renal calculus in patients without known urolithiasis.

Defining thresholds of specific IgE levels to grass pollen and birch pollen allergens improves clinical interpretation.

PubMed

Van Hoeyveld, Erna; Nickmans, Silvie; Ceuppens, Jan L; Bossuyt, Xavier

2015-10-23

Cut-off values and predictive values are used for the clinical interpretation of specific IgE antibody results. However, cut-off levels are not well defined, and predictive values are dependent on the prevalence of disease. The objective of this study was to document clinically relevant diagnostic accuracy of specific IgE for inhalant allergens (grass pollen and birch pollen) based on test result interval-specific likelihood ratios. Likelihood ratios are independent of the prevalence and allow to provide diagnostic accuracy information for test result intervals. In a prospective study we included consecutive adult patients presenting at an allergy clinic with complaints of rhinitis or rhinoconjunctivitis. The standard for diagnosis was a suggestive clinical history of grass or birch pollen allergy and a positive skin test. Specific IgE was determined with the ImmunoCAP Fluorescence Enzyme Immuno-Assay. We established specific IgE test result interval related likelihood ratios for clinical allergy to inhalant allergens (grass pollen, rPhl p 1,5, birch pollen, rBet v 1). The likelihood ratios for allergy increased with increasing specific IgE antibody levels. The likelihood ratio was <0.03 for specific IgE <0.1 kU/L, between 0.1 and 1.4 for specific IgE between 0.1 kU/L and 0.35 kU/L, between 1.4 and 4.2 for specific IgE between 0.35 kU/L and 3.5 kU/L, >6.3 for specific IgE>0.7, and very high (∞) for specific IgE >3.5 kU/L. Test result interval specific likelihood ratios provide a useful tool for the interpretation of specific IgE test results for inhalant allergens. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the diagnostic ability of Moorfield’s regression analysis and glaucoma probability score using Heidelberg retinal tomograph III in eyes with primary open angle glaucoma

PubMed Central

Jindal, Shveta; Dada, Tanuj; Sreenivas, V; Gupta, Viney; Sihota, Ramanjit; Panda, Anita

2010-01-01

Purpose: To compare the diagnostic performance of the Heidelberg retinal tomograph (HRT) glaucoma probability score (GPS) with that of Moorfield’s regression analysis (MRA). Materials and Methods: The study included 50 eyes of normal subjects and 50 eyes of subjects with early-to-moderate primary open angle glaucoma. Images were obtained by using HRT version 3.0. Results: The agreement coefficient (weighted k) for the overall MRA and GPS classification was 0.216 (95% CI: 0.119 – 0.315). The sensitivity and specificity were evaluated using the most specific (borderline results included as test negatives) and least specific criteria (borderline results included as test positives). The MRA sensitivity and specificity were 30.61 and 98% (most specific) and 57.14 and 98% (least specific). The GPS sensitivity and specificity were 81.63 and 73.47% (most specific) and 95.92 and 34.69% (least specific). The MRA gave a higher positive likelihood ratio (28.57 vs. 3.08) and the GPS gave a higher negative likelihood ratio (0.25 vs. 0.44).The sensitivity increased with increasing disc size for both MRA and GPS. Conclusions: There was a poor agreement between the overall MRA and GPS classifications. GPS tended to have higher sensitivities, lower specificities, and lower likelihood ratios than the MRA. The disc size should be taken into consideration when interpreting the results of HRT, as both the GPS and MRA showed decreased sensitivity for smaller discs and the GPS showed decreased specificity for larger discs. PMID:20952832

A data fusion approach to indications and warnings of terrorist attacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDaniel, David; Schaefer, Gregory

2014-05-01

Indications and Warning (I&W) of terrorist attacks, particularly IED attacks, require detection of networks of agents and patterns of behavior. Social Network Analysis tries to detect a network; activity analysis tries to detect anomalous activities. This work builds on both to detect elements of an activity model of terrorist attack activity - the agents, resources, networks, and behaviors. The activity model is expressed as RDF triples statements where the tuple positions are elements or subsets of a formal ontology for activity models. The advantage of a model is that elements are interdependent and evidence for or against one will influence others so that there is a multiplier effect. The advantage of the formality is that detection could occur hierarchically, that is, at different levels of abstraction. The model matching is expressed as a likelihood ratio between input text and the model triples. The likelihood ratio is designed to be analogous to track correlation likelihood ratios common in JDL fusion level 1. This required development of a semantic distance metric for positive and null hypotheses as well as for complex objects. The metric uses the Web 1Terabype database of one to five gram frequencies for priors. This size requires the use of big data technologies so a Hadoop cluster is used in conjunction with OpenNLP natural language and Mahout clustering software. Distributed data fusion Map Reduce jobs distribute parts of the data fusion problem to the Hadoop nodes. For the purposes of this initial testing, open source models and text inputs of similar complexity to terrorist events were used as surrogates for the intended counter-terrorist application.

Accuracy of Percutaneous Core Biopsy in the Diagnosis of Small Renal Masses (≤ 4.0 cm): A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

He, Qiqi; Wang, Hanzhang; Kenyon, Jonathan; Liu, Guiming; Yang, Li; Tian, Junqiang; Yue, Zhongjin; Wang, Zhiping

2015-01-01

To use meta-analysis to determine the accuracy of percutaneous core needle biopsy in the diagnosis of small renal masses (SMRs ≤ 4.0 cm). Studies were identified by searching PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library database up to March 2013. Two of the authors independently assessed the study quality using QUADAS-2 tool and extracted data that met the inclusion criteria. The sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and also summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve were investigated and draw. Deek's funnel plot was used to evaluate the publication bias. A total of 9 studies with 788 patients (803 biopsies) were included. Failed biopsies without repeated or aborted from follow-up/surgery result were excluded (232 patients and 353 biopsies). For all cases, the pooled sensitivity was 94.0% (95% CI: 91.0%, 95.0%), the pooled positive likelihood was 22.57 (95 % CI: 9.20-55.34), the pooled negative likelihood was 0.09 (95 % CI: 0.06-0.13), the pooled DOR was 296.52(95 % CI: 99. 42-884.38). The area under the curve of SROC analysis was 0.959 ± 0.0254. Imaging-guided percutaneous core needle biopsy of small renal masses (SMRs ≤ 4.0 cm) is highly accurate to malignant tumor diagnosis with unknown metastatic status and could be offered to some patients after clinic judgment prior to surgical intervention consideration.

Comparison of atopy patch testing to skin prick testing for diagnosing mite-induced atopic dermatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yumei; Peng, Jianglong; Zhou, Ying; Cui, Yubao

2017-01-01

Atopic dermatitis (AD) can occur after contact with aeroallergens like house dust mites, pollen, and animal dander. Despite its controversial diagnostic value, the atopy patch test (APT) has been used as an important tool in the diagnosis of AD caused by house dust mites. Here, we present a meta-analysis comparing APT to the common skin prick test (SPT) in the diagnosis of mite-induced AD. A structured search was performed using online databases and bibliographies published as of April 30, 2017. All studies evaluating the accuracy of APT and SPT in the diagnosis of mite-induced atopic eczema/dermatitis syndrome were selected, appraised, and data was extracted. Ten studies were identified for inclusion in our analysis. Meta-analysis revealed that the pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratios for APT were 0.54 (95% CI 0.42-0.66), 0.72 (95% CI 0.56-0.85), 1.97 (95% CI 1.20-3.23), 0.63 (95% CI 0.48-0.83), and 3.12 (95% CI 1.53-6.39). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.69). Our analysis indicates that APT is a useful tool in the screening of mite-induced AD, although this conclusion must be interpreted cautiously due to high heterogeneity among the included studies.

Transfer Entropy as a Log-Likelihood Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

2012-09-01

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

Transfer entropy as a log-likelihood ratio.

PubMed

Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

2012-09-28

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

The Novaya Zemlya Event of 31 December 1992 and Seismic Identification Issues: Annual Seismic Research Symposium (15th) Held in Vail, Colorado on 8-10 September 1993

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-09-10

1993). A bootstrap generalizedlikelihood ratio test in discriminant analysis, Proc. 15th Annual Seismic Research Symposium, in press. I Hedlin, M., J... ratio indicate that the event does not belong to the first class. The bootstrap technique is used here as well to set the critical value of the test ...Methodist University. Baek, J., H. L. Gray, W. A. Woodward and M.D. Fisk (1993). A Bootstrap Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test in Discriminant

A quantum framework for likelihood ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, Rachael L.; He, Yang-Hui; Ormerod, Thomas C.

The ability to calculate precise likelihood ratios is fundamental to science, from Quantum Information Theory through to Quantum State Estimation. However, there is no assumption-free statistical methodology to achieve this. For instance, in the absence of data relating to covariate overlap, the widely used Bayes’ theorem either defaults to the marginal probability driven “naive Bayes’ classifier”, or requires the use of compensatory expectation-maximization techniques. This paper takes an information-theoretic approach in developing a new statistical formula for the calculation of likelihood ratios based on the principles of quantum entanglement, and demonstrates that Bayes’ theorem is a special case of a more general quantum mechanical expression.

Likelihood ratio decisions in memory: three implied regularities.

PubMed

Glanzer, Murray; Hilford, Andrew; Maloney, Laurence T

2009-06-01

We analyze four general signal detection models for recognition memory that differ in their distributional assumptions. Our analyses show that a basic assumption of signal detection theory, the likelihood ratio decision axis, implies three regularities in recognition memory: (1) the mirror effect, (2) the variance effect, and (3) the z-ROC length effect. For each model, we present the equations that produce the three regularities and show, in computed examples, how they do so. We then show that the regularities appear in data from a range of recognition studies. The analyses and data in our study support the following generalization: Individuals make efficient recognition decisions on the basis of likelihood ratios.

Updating The Navy’s Recruit Quality Matrix: An Analysis of Educational Credentials and the Success of First-Term Sailors

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-03-01

Allison , Logistic Regression: Using the SAS System (Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc, 2001), 57. 23 using the likelihood ratio that SAS generates...21, respectively. 33 Jesse M. Rothstein, College Performance Predictions and the SAT ( Berkely , CA: UC

Effectiveness of real-time polymerase chain reaction assay for the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in pathological samples: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Babafemi, Emmanuel O; Cherian, Benny P; Banting, Lee; Mills, Graham A; Ngianga, Kandala

2017-10-25

Rapid and accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) is key to manage the disease and to control and prevent its transmission. Many established diagnostic methods suffer from low sensitivity or delay of timely results and are inadequate for rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) in pulmonary and extra-pulmonary clinical samples. This study examined whether a real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay, with a turn-a-round time of 2 h, would prove effective for routine detection of MTB by clinical microbiology laboratories. A systematic literature search was performed for publications in any language on the detection of MTB in pathological samples by RT-PCR assay. The following sources were used MEDLINE via PubMed, EMBASE, BIOSIS Citation Index, Web of Science, SCOPUS, ISI Web of Knowledge and Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialised Register, grey literature, World Health Organization and Centres for Disease Control and Prevention websites. Forty-six studies met set inclusion criteria. Generated pooled summary estimates (95% CIs) were calculated for overall accuracy and bivariate meta-regression model was used for meta-analysis. Summary estimates for pulmonary TB (31 studies) were as follows: sensitivity 0.82 (95% CI 0.81-0.83), specificity 0.99 (95% CI 0.99-0.99), positive likelihood ratio 43.00 (28.23-64.81), negative likelihood ratio 0.16 (0.12-0.20), diagnostic odds ratio 324.26 (95% CI 189.08-556.09) and area under curve 0.99. Summary estimates for extra-pulmonary TB (25 studies) were as follows: sensitivity 0.70 (95% CI 0.67-0.72), specificity 0.99 (95% CI 0.99-0.99), positive likelihood ratio 29.82 (17.86-49.78), negative likelihood ratio 0.33 (0.26-0.42), diagnostic odds ratio 125.20 (95% CI 65.75-238.36) and area under curve 0.96. RT-PCR assay demonstrated a high degree of sensitivity for pulmonary TB and good sensitivity for extra-pulmonary TB. It indicated a high degree of specificity for ruling in TB infection from sampling regimes. This was acceptable, but may better as a rule out add-on diagnostic test. RT-PCR assays demonstrate both a high degree of sensitivity in pulmonary samples and rapidity of detection of TB which is an important factor in achieving effective global control and for patient management in terms of initiating early and appropriate anti-tubercular therapy. PROSPERO CRD42015027534 .

Likelihood-Ratio DIF Testing: Effects of Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Carol M.

2008-01-01

Differential item functioning (DIF) occurs when an item has different measurement properties for members of one group versus another. Likelihood-ratio (LR) tests for DIF based on item response theory (IRT) involve statistically comparing IRT models that vary with respect to their constraints. A simulation study evaluated how violation of the…

Methods for flexible sample-size design in clinical trials: Likelihood, weighted, dual test, and promising zone approaches.

PubMed

Shih, Weichung Joe; Li, Gang; Wang, Yining

2016-03-01

Sample size plays a crucial role in clinical trials. Flexible sample-size designs, as part of the more general category of adaptive designs that utilize interim data, have been a popular topic in recent years. In this paper, we give a comparative review of four related methods for such a design. The likelihood method uses the likelihood ratio test with an adjusted critical value. The weighted method adjusts the test statistic with given weights rather than the critical value. The dual test method requires both the likelihood ratio statistic and the weighted statistic to be greater than the unadjusted critical value. The promising zone approach uses the likelihood ratio statistic with the unadjusted value and other constraints. All four methods preserve the type-I error rate. In this paper we explore their properties and compare their relationships and merits. We show that the sample size rules for the dual test are in conflict with the rules of the promising zone approach. We delineate what is necessary to specify in the study protocol to ensure the validity of the statistical procedure and what can be kept implicit in the protocol so that more flexibility can be attained for confirmatory phase III trials in meeting regulatory requirements. We also prove that under mild conditions, the likelihood ratio test still preserves the type-I error rate when the actual sample size is larger than the re-calculated one. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to mixtures.

PubMed

Slooten, Klaas-Jan; Egeland, Thore

2016-01-01

The statistical evidence obtained from mixed DNA profiles can be summarised in several ways in forensic casework including the likelihood ratio (LR) and the Random Man Not Excluded (RMNE) probability. The literature has seen a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of likelihood ratios and exclusion probabilities, and part of our aim is to bring some clarification to this debate. In a previous paper, we proved that there is a general mathematical relationship between these statistics: RMNE can be expressed as a certain average of the LR, implying that the expected value of the LR, when applied to an actual contributor to the mixture, is at least equal to the inverse of the RMNE. While the mentioned paper presented applications for kinship problems, the current paper demonstrates the relevance for mixture cases, and for this purpose, we prove some new general properties. We also demonstrate how to use the distribution of the likelihood ratio for donors of a mixture, to obtain estimates for exceedance probabilities of the LR for non-donors, of which the RMNE is a special case corresponding to L R>0. In order to derive these results, we need to view the likelihood ratio as a random variable. In this paper, we describe how such a randomization can be achieved. The RMNE is usually invoked only for mixtures without dropout. In mixtures, artefacts like dropout and drop-in are commonly encountered and we address this situation too, illustrating our results with a basic but widely implemented model, a so-called binary model. The precise definitions, modelling and interpretation of the required concepts of dropout and drop-in are not entirely obvious, and we attempt to clarify them here in a general likelihood framework for a binary model.

Can 3-dimensional power Doppler indices improve the prenatal diagnosis of a potentially morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa?

PubMed

Haidar, Ziad A; Papanna, Ramesha; Sibai, Baha M; Tatevian, Nina; Viteri, Oscar A; Vowels, Patricia C; Blackwell, Sean C; Moise, Kenneth J

2017-08-01

Traditionally, 2-dimensional ultrasound parameters have been used for the diagnosis of a suspected morbidly adherent placenta previa. More objective techniques have not been well studied yet. The objective of the study was to determine the ability of prenatal 3-dimensional power Doppler analysis of flow and vascular indices to predict the morbidly adherent placenta objectively. A prospective cohort study was performed in women between 28 and 32 gestational weeks with known placenta previa. Patients underwent a two-dimensional gray-scale ultrasound that determined management decisions. 3-Dimensional power Doppler volumes were obtained during the same examination and vascular, flow, and vascular flow indices were calculated after manual tracing of the viewed placenta in the sweep; data were blinded to obstetricians. Morbidly adherent placenta was confirmed by histology. Severe morbidly adherent placenta was defined as increta/percreta on histology, blood loss >2000 mL, and >2 units of PRBC transfused. Sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Student t and χ 2 tests, logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and intra- and interrater agreements using Kappa statistics were performed. The following results were found: (1) 50 women were studied: 23 had morbidly adherent placenta, of which 12 (52.2%) were severe morbidly adherent placenta; (2) 2-dimensional parameters diagnosed morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity of 82.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.4-94.2), a specificity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 69.7-97.1), a positive predictive value of 86.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0-96.4), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (95% confidence interval, 66.4-95.3), a positive likelihood ratio of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-21.9), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.48); (3) mean values of the vascular index (32.8 ± 7.4) and the vascular flow index (14.2 ± 3.8) were higher in morbidly adherent placenta (P < .001); (4) area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the vascular and vascular flow indices were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively; (5) the vascular index ≥21 predicted morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity and a specificity of 95% (95% confidence interval, 88.2-96.9) and 91%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 87.5-92.4), 92% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 85.5-94.3), 90% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 79.9-95.3), positive likelihood ratio of 10.55 (95% confidence interval, 7.06-12.75), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.13); and (6) for the severe morbidly adherent placenta, 2-dimensional ultrasound had a sensitivity of 33.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.3-64.6), a specificity of 81.8% (95% confidence interval, 47.8-96.8), a positive predictive value of 66.7% (95% confidence interval, 24.1-94.1), a negative predictive value of 52.9% (95% confidence interval, 28.5-76.1), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-8.11), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.26). A vascular index ≥31 predicted the diagnosis of a severe morbidly adherent placenta with a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 72-100), a 90% specificity (95% confidence interval, 81.7-93.8), an 88% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 55.0-91.3), a 100% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 90.9-100), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-16.13), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0 (95% confidence interval, 0-0.34). Intrarater and interrater agreements were 94% (P < .001) and 93% (P < .001), respectively. The vascular index accurately predicts the morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa. In addition, 3-dimensional power Doppler vascular and vascular flow indices were more predictive of severe cases of morbidly adherent placenta compared with 2-dimensional ultrasound. This objective technique may limit the variations in diagnosing morbidly adherent placenta because of the subjectivity of 2-dimensional ultrasound interpretations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interpretation of diagnostic data: 5. How to do it with simple maths.

PubMed

1983-11-01

The use of simple maths with the likelihood ratio strategy fits in nicely with our clinical views. By making the most out of the entire range of diagnostic test results (i.e., several levels, each with its own likelihood ratio, rather than a single cut-off point and a single ratio) and by permitting us to keep track of the likelihood that a patient has the target disorder at each point along the diagnostic sequence, this strategy allows us to place patients at an extremely high or an extremely low likelihood of disease. Thus, the numbers of patients with ultimately false-positive results (who suffer the slings of labelling and the arrows of needless therapy) and of those with ultimately false-negative results (who therefore miss their chance for diagnosis and, possibly, efficacious therapy) will be dramatically reduced. The following guidelines will be useful in interpreting signs, symptoms and laboratory tests with the likelihood ratio strategy: Seek out, and demand from the clinical or laboratory experts who ought to know, the likelihood ratios for key symptoms and signs, and several levels (rather than just the positive and negative results) of diagnostic test results. Identify, when feasible, the logical sequence of diagnostic tests. Estimate the pretest probability of disease for the patient, and, using either the nomogram or the conversion formulas, apply the likelihood ratio that corresponds to the first diagnostic test result. While remembering that the resulting post-test probability or odds from the first test becomes the pretest probability or odds for the next diagnostic test, repeat the process for all the pertinent symptoms, signs and laboratory studies that pertain to the target disorder. However, these combinations may not be independent, and convergent diagnostic tests, if treated as independent, will combine to overestimate the final post-test probability of disease. You are now far more sophisticated in interpreting diagnostic tests than most of your teachers. In the last part of our series we will show you some rather complex strategies that combine diagnosis and therapy, quantify our as yet nonquantified ideas about use, and require the use of at least a hand calculator.

Interpretation of diagnostic data: 5. How to do it with simple maths.

PubMed Central

1983-01-01

The use of simple maths with the likelihood ratio strategy fits in nicely with our clinical views. By making the most out of the entire range of diagnostic test results (i.e., several levels, each with its own likelihood ratio, rather than a single cut-off point and a single ratio) and by permitting us to keep track of the likelihood that a patient has the target disorder at each point along the diagnostic sequence, this strategy allows us to place patients at an extremely high or an extremely low likelihood of disease. Thus, the numbers of patients with ultimately false-positive results (who suffer the slings of labelling and the arrows of needless therapy) and of those with ultimately false-negative results (who therefore miss their chance for diagnosis and, possibly, efficacious therapy) will be dramatically reduced. The following guidelines will be useful in interpreting signs, symptoms and laboratory tests with the likelihood ratio strategy: Seek out, and demand from the clinical or laboratory experts who ought to know, the likelihood ratios for key symptoms and signs, and several levels (rather than just the positive and negative results) of diagnostic test results. Identify, when feasible, the logical sequence of diagnostic tests. Estimate the pretest probability of disease for the patient, and, using either the nomogram or the conversion formulas, apply the likelihood ratio that corresponds to the first diagnostic test result. While remembering that the resulting post-test probability or odds from the first test becomes the pretest probability or odds for the next diagnostic test, repeat the process for all the pertinent symptoms, signs and laboratory studies that pertain to the target disorder. However, these combinations may not be independent, and convergent diagnostic tests, if treated as independent, will combine to overestimate the final post-test probability of disease. You are now far more sophisticated in interpreting diagnostic tests than most of your teachers. In the last part of our series we will show you some rather complex strategies that combine diagnosis and therapy, quantify our as yet nonquantified ideas about use, and require the use of at least a hand calculator. PMID:6671182

Prediction of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology after childbirth - A Croatian longitudinal study.

PubMed

Srkalović Imširagić, Azijada; Begić, Dražen; Šimičević, Livija; Bajić, Žarko

2017-02-01

Following childbirth, a vast number of women experience some degree of mood swings, while some experience symptoms of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder. Using a biopsychosocial model, the primary aim of this study was to identify predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder and its symptomatology following childbirth. This observational, longitudinal study included 372 postpartum women. In order to explore biopsychosocial predictors, participants completed several questionnaires 3-5 days after childbirth: the Impact of Events Scale Revised, the Big Five Inventory, The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, breastfeeding practice and social and demographic factors. Six to nine weeks after childbirth, participants re-completed the questionnaires regarding psychiatric symptomatology and breastfeeding practice. Using a multivariate level of analysis, the predictors that increased the likelihood of postpartum posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the first study phase were: emergency caesarean section (odds ratio 2.48; confidence interval 1.13-5.43) and neuroticism personality trait (odds ratio 1.12; confidence interval 1.05-1.20). The predictor that increased the likelihood of posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology at the second study phase was the baseline Impact of Events Scale Revised score (odds ratio 12.55; confidence interval 4.06-38.81). Predictors that decreased the likelihood of symptomatology at the second study phase were life in a nuclear family (odds ratio 0.27; confidence interval 0.09-0.77) and life in a city (odds ratio 0.29; confidence interval 0.09-0.94). Biopsychosocial theory is applicable to postpartum psychiatric disorders. In addition to screening for depression amongst postpartum women, there is a need to include other postpartum psychiatric symptomatology screenings in routine practice. Copyright © 2016 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of IRT Likelihood Ratio Test and Logistic Regression DIF Detection Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atar, Burcu; Kamata, Akihito

2011-01-01

The Type I error rates and the power of IRT likelihood ratio test and cumulative logit ordinal logistic regression procedures in detecting differential item functioning (DIF) for polytomously scored items were investigated in this Monte Carlo simulation study. For this purpose, 54 simulation conditions (combinations of 3 sample sizes, 2 sample…

Understanding the properties of diagnostic tests - Part 2: Likelihood ratios.

PubMed

Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2018-01-01

Diagnostic tests are used to identify subjects with and without disease. In a previous article in this series, we examined some attributes of diagnostic tests - sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this second article, we look at likelihood ratios, which are useful for the interpretation of diagnostic test results in everyday clinical practice.

Bayesian framework for the evaluation of fiber evidence in a double murder--a case report.

PubMed

Causin, Valerio; Schiavone, Sergio; Marigo, Antonio; Carresi, Pietro

2004-05-10

Fiber evidence found on a suspect vehicle was the only useful trace to reconstruct the dynamics of the transportation of two corpses. Optical microscopy, UV-Vis microspectrophotometry and infrared analysis were employed to compare fibers recovered in the trunk of a car to those of the blankets composing the wrapping in which the victims had been hidden. A "pseudo-1:1" taping permitted to reconstruct the spatial distribution of the traces and to further strengthen the support to one of the hypotheses. The Likelihood Ratio (LR) was calculated, in order to quantify the support given by forensic evidence to the explanations proposed. A generalization of the Likelihood Ratio equation to cases analogous to this has been derived. Fibers were the only traces that helped in the corroboration of the crime scenario, being absent any DNA, fingerprints and ballistic evidence.

Density-based empirical likelihood procedures for testing symmetry of data distributions and K-sample comparisons.

PubMed

Vexler, Albert; Tanajian, Hovig; Hutson, Alan D

In practice, parametric likelihood-ratio techniques are powerful statistical tools. In this article, we propose and examine novel and simple distribution-free test statistics that efficiently approximate parametric likelihood ratios to analyze and compare distributions of K groups of observations. Using the density-based empirical likelihood methodology, we develop a Stata package that applies to a test for symmetry of data distributions and compares K -sample distributions. Recognizing that recent statistical software packages do not sufficiently address K -sample nonparametric comparisons of data distributions, we propose a new Stata command, vxdbel, to execute exact density-based empirical likelihood-ratio tests using K samples. To calculate p -values of the proposed tests, we use the following methods: 1) a classical technique based on Monte Carlo p -value evaluations; 2) an interpolation technique based on tabulated critical values; and 3) a new hybrid technique that combines methods 1 and 2. The third, cutting-edge method is shown to be very efficient in the context of exact-test p -value computations. This Bayesian-type method considers tabulated critical values as prior information and Monte Carlo generations of test statistic values as data used to depict the likelihood function. In this case, a nonparametric Bayesian method is proposed to compute critical values of exact tests.

Statistical inference methods for sparse biological time series data.

PubMed

Ndukum, Juliet; Fonseca, Luís L; Santos, Helena; Voit, Eberhard O; Datta, Susmita

2011-04-25

Comparing metabolic profiles under different biological perturbations has become a powerful approach to investigating the functioning of cells. The profiles can be taken as single snapshots of a system, but more information is gained if they are measured longitudinally over time. The results are short time series consisting of relatively sparse data that cannot be analyzed effectively with standard time series techniques, such as autocorrelation and frequency domain methods. In this work, we study longitudinal time series profiles of glucose consumption in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae under different temperatures and preconditioning regimens, which we obtained with methods of in vivo nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. For the statistical analysis we first fit several nonlinear mixed effect regression models to the longitudinal profiles and then used an ANOVA likelihood ratio method in order to test for significant differences between the profiles. The proposed methods are capable of distinguishing metabolic time trends resulting from different treatments and associate significance levels to these differences. Among several nonlinear mixed-effects regression models tested, a three-parameter logistic function represents the data with highest accuracy. ANOVA and likelihood ratio tests suggest that there are significant differences between the glucose consumption rate profiles for cells that had been--or had not been--preconditioned by heat during growth. Furthermore, pair-wise t-tests reveal significant differences in the longitudinal profiles for glucose consumption rates between optimal conditions and heat stress, optimal and recovery conditions, and heat stress and recovery conditions (p-values <0.0001). We have developed a nonlinear mixed effects model that is appropriate for the analysis of sparse metabolic and physiological time profiles. The model permits sound statistical inference procedures, based on ANOVA likelihood ratio tests, for testing the significance of differences between short time course data under different biological perturbations.

Combining Mean and Standard Deviation of Hounsfield Unit Measurements from Preoperative CT Allows More Accurate Prediction of Urinary Stone Composition Than Mean Hounsfield Units Alone.

PubMed

Tailly, Thomas; Larish, Yaniv; Nadeau, Brandon; Violette, Philippe; Glickman, Leonard; Olvera-Posada, Daniel; Alenezi, Husain; Amann, Justin; Denstedt, John; Razvi, Hassan

2016-04-01

The mineral composition of a urinary stone may influence its surgical and medical treatment. Previous attempts at identifying stone composition based on mean Hounsfield Units (HUm) have had varied success. We aimed to evaluate the additional use of standard deviation of HU (HUsd) to more accurately predict stone composition. We identified patients from two centers who had undergone urinary stone treatment between 2006 and 2013 and had mineral stone analysis and a computed tomography (CT) available. HUm and HUsd of the stones were compared with ANOVA. Receiver operative characteristic analysis with area under the curve (AUC), Youden index, and likelihood ratio calculations were performed. Data were available for 466 patients. The major components were calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM), uric acid, hydroxyapatite, struvite, brushite, cystine, and CO dihydrate (COD) in 41.4%, 19.3%, 12.4%, 7.5%, 5.8%, 5.4%, and 4.7% of patients, respectively. The HUm of UA and Br was significantly lower and higher than the HUm of any other stone type, respectively. HUm and HUsd were most accurate in predicting uric acid with an AUC of 0.969 and 0.851, respectively. The combined use of HUm and HUsd resulted in increased positive predictive value and higher likelihood ratios for identifying a stone's mineral composition for all stone types but COM. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of CT data aiding in the prediction of brushite stone composition. Both HUm and HUsd can help predict stone composition and their combined use results in higher likelihood ratios influencing probability.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Central Venous Catheter Confirmation by Bedside Ultrasound Versus Chest Radiography in Critically Ill Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Ablordeppey, Enyo A; Drewry, Anne M; Beyer, Alexander B; Theodoro, Daniel L; Fowler, Susan A; Fuller, Brian M; Carpenter, Christopher R

2017-04-01

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the accuracy of bedside ultrasound for confirmation of central venous catheter position and exclusion of pneumothorax compared with chest radiography. PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, reference lists, conference proceedings and ClinicalTrials.gov. Articles and abstracts describing the diagnostic accuracy of bedside ultrasound compared with chest radiography for confirmation of central venous catheters in sufficient detail to reconstruct 2 × 2 contingency tables were reviewed. Primary outcomes included the accuracy of confirming catheter positioning and detecting a pneumothorax. Secondary outcomes included feasibility, interrater reliability, and efficiency to complete bedside ultrasound confirmation of central venous catheter position. Investigators abstracted study details including research design and sonographic imaging technique to detect catheter malposition and procedure-related pneumothorax. Diagnostic accuracy measures included pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Fifteen studies with 1,553 central venous catheter placements were identified with a pooled sensitivity and specificity of catheter malposition by ultrasound of 0.82 (0.77-0.86) and 0.98 (0.97-0.99), respectively. The pooled positive and negative likelihood ratios of catheter malposition by ultrasound were 31.12 (14.72-65.78) and 0.25 (0.13-0.47). The sensitivity and specificity of ultrasound for pneumothorax detection was nearly 100% in the participating studies. Bedside ultrasound reduced mean central venous catheter confirmation time by 58.3 minutes. Risk of bias and clinical heterogeneity in the studies were high. Bedside ultrasound is faster than radiography at identifying pneumothorax after central venous catheter insertion. When a central venous catheter malposition exists, bedside ultrasound will identify four out of every five earlier than chest radiography.

Power and Precision in Confirmatory Factor Analytic Tests of Measurement Invariance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meade, Adam W.; Bauer, Daniel J.

2007-01-01

This study investigates the effects of sample size, factor overdetermination, and communality on the precision of factor loading estimates and the power of the likelihood ratio test of factorial invariance in multigroup confirmatory factor analysis. Although sample sizes are typically thought to be the primary determinant of precision and power,…

Electroencephalogram-based decoding cognitive states using convolutional neural network and likelihood ratio based score fusion.

PubMed

Zafar, Raheel; Dass, Sarat C; Malik, Aamir Saeed

2017-01-01

Electroencephalogram (EEG)-based decoding human brain activity is challenging, owing to the low spatial resolution of EEG. However, EEG is an important technique, especially for brain-computer interface applications. In this study, a novel algorithm is proposed to decode brain activity associated with different types of images. In this hybrid algorithm, convolutional neural network is modified for the extraction of features, a t-test is used for the selection of significant features and likelihood ratio-based score fusion is used for the prediction of brain activity. The proposed algorithm takes input data from multichannel EEG time-series, which is also known as multivariate pattern analysis. Comprehensive analysis was conducted using data from 30 participants. The results from the proposed method are compared with current recognized feature extraction and classification/prediction techniques. The wavelet transform-support vector machine method is the most popular currently used feature extraction and prediction method. This method showed an accuracy of 65.7%. However, the proposed method predicts the novel data with improved accuracy of 79.9%. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm outperformed the current feature extraction and prediction method.

PEPA test: fast and powerful differential analysis from relative quantitative proteomics data using shared peptides.

PubMed

Jacob, Laurent; Combes, Florence; Burger, Thomas

2018-06-18

We propose a new hypothesis test for the differential abundance of proteins in mass-spectrometry based relative quantification. An important feature of this type of high-throughput analyses is that it involves an enzymatic digestion of the sample proteins into peptides prior to identification and quantification. Due to numerous homology sequences, different proteins can lead to peptides with identical amino acid chains, so that their parent protein is ambiguous. These so-called shared peptides make the protein-level statistical analysis a challenge and are often not accounted for. In this article, we use a linear model describing peptide-protein relationships to build a likelihood ratio test of differential abundance for proteins. We show that the likelihood ratio statistic can be computed in linear time with the number of peptides. We also provide the asymptotic null distribution of a regularized version of our statistic. Experiments on both real and simulated datasets show that our procedures outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The procedures are available via the pepa.test function of the DAPAR Bioconductor R package.

Distribution of lod scores in oligogenic linkage analysis.

PubMed

Williams, J T; North, K E; Martin, L J; Comuzzie, A G; Göring, H H; Blangero, J

2001-01-01

In variance component oligogenic linkage analysis it can happen that the residual additive genetic variance bounds to zero when estimating the effect of the ith quantitative trait locus. Using quantitative trait Q1 from the Genetic Analysis Workshop 12 simulated general population data, we compare the observed lod scores from oligogenic linkage analysis with the empirical lod score distribution under a null model of no linkage. We find that zero residual additive genetic variance in the null model alters the usual distribution of the likelihood-ratio statistic.

Simultaneous Control of Error Rates in fMRI Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Kang, Hakmook; Blume, Jeffrey; Ombao, Hernando; Badre, David

2015-01-01

The key idea of statistical hypothesis testing is to fix, and thereby control, the Type I error (false positive) rate across samples of any size. Multiple comparisons inflate the global (family-wise) Type I error rate and the traditional solution to maintaining control of the error rate is to increase the local (comparison-wise) Type II error (false negative) rates. However, in the analysis of human brain imaging data, the number of comparisons is so large that this solution breaks down: the local Type II error rate ends up being so large that scientifically meaningful analysis is precluded. Here we propose a novel solution to this problem: allow the Type I error rate to converge to zero along with the Type II error rate. It works because when the Type I error rate per comparison is very small, the accumulation (or global) Type I error rate is also small. This solution is achieved by employing the Likelihood paradigm, which uses likelihood ratios to measure the strength of evidence on a voxel-by-voxel basis. In this paper, we provide theoretical and empirical justification for a likelihood approach to the analysis of human brain imaging data. In addition, we present extensive simulations that show the likelihood approach is viable, leading to ‘cleaner’ looking brain maps and operationally superiority (lower average error rate). Finally, we include a case study on cognitive control related activation in the prefrontal cortex of the human brain. PMID:26272730

Diagnostic value of (1 → 3)-β-D-glucan in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid for invasive fungal disease: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Xin-Yu; Liu, Yao; Gu, Xian-Min; Hao, Sheng-Yu; Wang, Yu-Hong; Yan, Di; Jiang, Shu-Juang

2016-08-01

The serum (1 → 3)-β-D-glucan (BG) assay has been approved for diagnosing invasive fungal diseases (IFDs). However, the performance of (1 → 3)-β-D-glucan assay in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid is various among studies. The present study aimed to assess the accuracy of (1 → 3)-β-D-glucan assay in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid for the diagnosis of invasive fungal diseases by means of meta-analysis and systematic review of relevant studies. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (OR) and a summary receiver-operating characteristic curve of BAL-BG for diagnosing invasive fungal diseases were pooled using meta-analysis. We also performed meta-regression analysis. A total of 838 patients (138 with proven or probable invasive fungal diseases), included in 6 studies, were analyzed. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR and diagnostic odds ratio were 0.52 (95%CI, 0.38-0.53), 0.58 (95%CI, 0.55-0.61), 1.34 (95%CI, 1.08-1.66), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.63-1.07) and 1.71 (95%CI, 1.01-2.92) respectively. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve, with 95% confidence intervals was 0.61 (95%CI, 0.67-0.55). The accuracy of (1 → 3)-β-D-glucan test in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid is marginal, so that the results should not be interpreted alone but can be used as a part of full assessment with clinical features, image findings and other laboratory results for the diagnosis of invasive fungal diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of pfHRP2 versus pLDH antigen rapid diagnostic tests for the detection of Plasmodium falciparum: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Bo; Sun, Zhiqiang; Li, Xiaohan; Li, Xiaoxi; Wang, Han; Chen, Weijiao; Chen, Peng; Qiao, Mengran; Mao, Yuanli

2017-04-01

There have been many inconsistent reports about the performance of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) antigens as rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for the diagnosis of past Plasmodium falciparum infections. This meta-analysis was performed to determine the performance of pfHRP2 versus pLDH antigen RDTs in the detection of P. falciparum . After a systematic review of related studies, Meta-DiSc 1.4 software was used to calculate the pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). Forest plots and summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) analysis were used to summarize the overall test performance. Fourteen studies which met the inclusion criteria were included in the meta-analysis. The summary performances for pfHRP2- and pLDH-based tests in the diagnosis of P. falciparum infections were as follows: pooled sensitivity, 96.3% (95.8-96.7%) vs. 82.6% (81.7-83.5%); specificity, 86.1% (85.3-86.8%) vs. 95.9% (95.4-96.3%); diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), 243.31 (97.679-606.08) vs. 230.59 (114.98-462.42); and area under ROCs, 0.9822 versus 0.9849 (all p < 0.001). The two RDTs performed satisfactorily for the diagnosis of P. falciparum , but the pLDH tests had higher specificity, whereas the pfHRP2 tests had better sensitivity. The pfHRP2 tests had slightly greater accuracy compared to the pLDH tests. A combination of both antigens might be a more reliable approach for the diagnosis of malaria.

The effect of rare variants on inflation of the test statistics in case-control analyses.

PubMed

Pirie, Ailith; Wood, Angela; Lush, Michael; Tyrer, Jonathan; Pharoah, Paul D P

2015-02-20

The detection of bias due to cryptic population structure is an important step in the evaluation of findings of genetic association studies. The standard method of measuring this bias in a genetic association study is to compare the observed median association test statistic to the expected median test statistic. This ratio is inflated in the presence of cryptic population structure. However, inflation may also be caused by the properties of the association test itself particularly in the analysis of rare variants. We compared the properties of the three most commonly used association tests: the likelihood ratio test, the Wald test and the score test when testing rare variants for association using simulated data. We found evidence of inflation in the median test statistics of the likelihood ratio and score tests for tests of variants with less than 20 heterozygotes across the sample, regardless of the total sample size. The test statistics for the Wald test were under-inflated at the median for variants below the same minor allele frequency. In a genetic association study, if a substantial proportion of the genetic variants tested have rare minor allele frequencies, the properties of the association test may mask the presence or absence of bias due to population structure. The use of either the likelihood ratio test or the score test is likely to lead to inflation in the median test statistic in the absence of population structure. In contrast, the use of the Wald test is likely to result in under-inflation of the median test statistic which may mask the presence of population structure.

An ERTS-1 investigation for Lake Ontario and its basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polcyn, F. C.; Falconer, A. (Principal Investigator); Wagner, T. W.; Rebel, D. L.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Methods of manual, semi-automatic, and automatic (computer) data processing were evaluated, as were the requirements for spatial physiographic and limnological information. The coupling of specially processed ERTS data with simulation models of the watershed precipitation/runoff process provides potential for water resources management. Optimal and full use of the data requires a mix of data processing and analysis techniques, including single band editing, two band ratios, and multiband combinations. A combination of maximum likelihood ratio and near-IR/red band ratio processing was found to be particularly useful.

Diagnosis of tuberculosis pleurisy with adenosine deaminase (ADA): a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gui, Xuwei; Xiao, Heping

2014-01-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to determine accuracy and usefulness of adenosine deaminase (ADA) in diagnosis of tuberculosis pleurisy. Medline, Google scholar and Web of Science databases were searched to identify related studies until 2014. Two reviewers independently assessed quality of studies included according to standard Quality Assessment of Diagnosis Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) criteria. The sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratio and other parameters of ADA in diagnosis of tuberculosis pleurisy were analyzed with Meta-DiSC1.4 software, and pooled using the random effects model. Twelve studies including 865 tuberculosis pleurisy patients and 1379 non-tuberculosis pleurisy subjects were identified from 110 studies for this meta-analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) and diagnosis odds ratio (DOR) of ADA in the diagnosis of tuberculosis pleurisy were 45.25 (95% CI 27.63-74.08), 0.86 (95% CI 0.84-0.88), 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.90), 6.32 (95% CI 4.83-8.26) and 0.15 (95% 0.11-0.22), respectively. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) was 0.9340. Our results demonstrate that the sensitivity and specificity of ADA are high in the diagnosis of tuberculosis pleurisy especially when ADA≥50 (U/L). Thus, ADA is a relatively sensitive and specific marker for tuberculosis pleurisy diagnosis. However, it is cautious to apply these results due to the heterogeneity in study design of these studies. Further studies are required to confirm the optimal cut-off value of ADA.

Search for the lepton-family-number nonconserving decay μ+-->e+γ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, M.; Amann, J. F.; Barlow, D.; Black, K.; Bolton, R. D.; Brooks, M. L.; Carius, S.; Chen, Y. K.; Chernyshev, A.; Concannon, H. M.; Cooper, M. D.; Cooper, P. S.; Crocker, J.; Dittmann, J. R.; Dzemidzic, M.; Empl, A.; Fisk, R. J.; Fleet, E.; Foreman, W.; Gagliardi, C. A.; Haim, D.; Hallin, A.; Hoffman, C. M.; Hogan, G. E.; Hughes, E. B.; Hungerford, E. V.; Jui, C. C.; Kim, G. J.; Knott, J. E.; Koetke, D. D.; Kozlowski, T.; Kroupa, M. A.; Kunselman, A. R.; Lan, K. A.; Laptev, V.; Lee, D.; Liu, F.; Manweiler, R. W.; Marshall, R.; Mayes, B. W.; Mischke, R. E.; Nefkens, B. M.; Nickerson, L. M.; Nord, P. M.; Oothoudt, M. A.; Otis, J. N.; Phelps, R.; Piilonen, L. E.; Pillai, C.; Pinsky, L.; Ritter, M. W.; Smith, C.; Stanislaus, T. D.; Stantz, K. M.; Szymanski, J. J.; Tang, L.; Tippens, W. B.; Tribble, R. E.; Tu, X. L.; van Ausdeln, L. A.; von Witch, W. H.; Whitehouse, D.; Wilkinson, C.; Wright, B.; Wright, S. C.; Zhang, Y.; Ziock, K. O.

2002-06-01

The MEGA experiment, which searched for the muon- and electron-number violating decay μ+→e+γ, is described. The spectrometer system, the calibrations, the data taking procedures, the data analysis, and the sensitivity of the experiment are discussed. The most stringent upper limit on the branching ratio, B(μ+→e+γ)<1.2×10-11 with 90% confidence, is derived from a likelihood analysis.

Performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Guo, Rui; Ma, Lu; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

2017-12-01

Hematoma expansion is independently associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Blend sign is a simple predictor for hematoma expansion on non-contrast computed tomography. However, its accuracy for predicting hematoma expansion is inconsistent in previous studies. This meta-analysis is aimed to systematically assess the performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was conducted. Original studies about predictive accuracy of blend sign for hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve was constructed. Publication bias was assessed by Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. A total of 5 studies with 2248 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.28, 0.92, 3.4 and 0.78, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.85. No significant publication bias was found. This meta-analysis demonstrates that blend sign is a useful predictor with high specificity for hematoma expansion in ICH. Further studies with larger sample size are still necessary to verify the accuracy of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical methods for analysis of radiation effects with tumor and dose location-specific information with application to the WECARE study of asynchronous contralateral breast cancer

PubMed Central

Langholz, Bryan; Thomas, Duncan C.; Stovall, Marilyn; Smith, Susan A.; Boice, John D.; Shore, Roy E.; Bernstein, Leslie; Lynch, Charles F.; Zhang, Xinbo; Bernstein, Jonine L.

2009-01-01

Summary Methods for the analysis of individually matched case-control studies with location-specific radiation dose and tumor location information are described. These include likelihood methods for analyses that just use cases with precise location of tumor information and methods that also include cases with imprecise tumor location information. The theory establishes that each of these likelihood based methods estimates the same radiation rate ratio parameters, within the context of the appropriate model for location and subject level covariate effects. The underlying assumptions are characterized and the potential strengths and limitations of each method are described. The methods are illustrated and compared using the WECARE study of radiation and asynchronous contralateral breast cancer. PMID:18647297

Reliability and validity of the new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale scores: a group intelligence test.

PubMed

Uno, Yota; Mizukami, Hitomi; Ando, Masahiko; Yukihiro, Ryoji; Iwasaki, Yoko; Ozaki, Norio

2014-01-01

The present study evaluated the reliability and concurrent validity of the new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale, which is an intelligence test that can be administered on groups within a short period of time. The new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale and Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Third Edition were administered to 81 subjects (mean age ± SD 15.2 ± 0.7 years) residing in a juvenile detention home; reliability was assessed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, and concurrent validity was assessed using the one-way analysis of variance intraclass correlation coefficient. Moreover, receiver operating characteristic analysis for screening for individuals who have a deficit in intellectual function (an FIQ<70) was performed. In addition, stratum-specific likelihood ratios for detection of intellectual disability were calculated. The Cronbach's alpha for the new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale IQ (BIQ) was 0.86, and the intraclass correlation coefficient with FIQ was 0.83. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96). In addition, the stratum-specific likelihood ratio for the BIQ≤65 stratum was 13.8 (95% CI: 3.9-48.9), and the stratum-specific likelihood ratio for the BIQ≥76 stratum was 0.1 (95% CI: 0.03-0.4). Thus, intellectual disability could be ruled out or determined. The present results demonstrated that the new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale score had high reliability and concurrent validity with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Third Edition score. Moreover, the post-test probability for the BIQ could be calculated when screening for individuals who have a deficit in intellectual function. The new Tanaka B Intelligence Test is convenient and can be administered within a variety of settings. This enables evaluation of intellectual development even in settings where performing intelligence tests have previously been difficult.

Reliability and Validity of the New Tanaka B Intelligence Scale Scores: A Group Intelligence Test

PubMed Central

Uno, Yota; Mizukami, Hitomi; Ando, Masahiko; Yukihiro, Ryoji; Iwasaki, Yoko; Ozaki, Norio

2014-01-01

Objective The present study evaluated the reliability and concurrent validity of the new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale, which is an intelligence test that can be administered on groups within a short period of time. Methods The new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale and Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Third Edition were administered to 81 subjects (mean age ± SD 15.2±0.7 years) residing in a juvenile detention home; reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, and concurrent validity was assessed using the one-way analysis of variance intraclass correlation coefficient. Moreover, receiver operating characteristic analysis for screening for individuals who have a deficit in intellectual function (an FIQ<70) was performed. In addition, stratum-specific likelihood ratios for detection of intellectual disability were calculated. Results The Cronbach’s alpha for the new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale IQ (BIQ) was 0.86, and the intraclass correlation coefficient with FIQ was 0.83. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85–0.96). In addition, the stratum-specific likelihood ratio for the BIQ≤65 stratum was 13.8 (95% CI: 3.9–48.9), and the stratum-specific likelihood ratio for the BIQ≥76 stratum was 0.1 (95% CI: 0.03–0.4). Thus, intellectual disability could be ruled out or determined. Conclusion The present results demonstrated that the new Tanaka B Intelligence Scale score had high reliability and concurrent validity with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Third Edition score. Moreover, the post-test probability for the BIQ could be calculated when screening for individuals who have a deficit in intellectual function. The new Tanaka B Intelligence Test is convenient and can be administered within a variety of settings. This enables evaluation of intellectual development even in settings where performing intelligence tests have previously been difficult. PMID:24940880

An Evaluation of Statistical Strategies for Making Equating Function Selections. Research Report. ETS RR-08-60

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Tim

2008-01-01

Nine statistical strategies for selecting equating functions in an equivalent groups design were evaluated. The strategies of interest were likelihood ratio chi-square tests, regression tests, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, and significance tests for equated score differences. The most accurate strategies in the study were the likelihood ratio tests…

Optimal Methods for Classification of Digitally Modulated Signals

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

of using a ratio of likelihood functions, the proposed approach uses the Kullback - Leibler (KL) divergence. KL...58 List of Acronyms ALRT Average LRT BPSK Binary Shift Keying BPSK-SS BPSK Spread Spectrum or CDMA DKL Kullback - Leibler Information Divergence...blind demodulation for develop classification algorithms for wider set of signals types. Two methodologies were used : Likelihood Ratio Test

[Evaluation of T-SPOT.TB assay in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis within different age groups].

PubMed

Pan, Liping; Jia, Hongyan; Liu, Fei; Gao, Mengqiu; Sun, Huishan; Du, Boping; Sun, Qi; Xing, Aiying; Wei, Rongrong; Zhang, Zongde

2015-12-01

To evaluate the value of T-SPOT.TB assay in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis within different age groups. We analyzed 1 518 suspected pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients who were admitted to the Beijing Chest Hospital from November 2012 to February 2014 and had valid T-SPOT.TB tests before anti-tuberculosis therapy. The 599 microbiologically and/or histopathologically-confirmed PTB patients (16-89 years old, 388 males and 211 females) and 235 non-TB patients (14-85 years old, 144 males and 91 females) were enrolled for the analysis of diagnostic performance of T-SPOT.TB, while patients with uncertain diagnosis or diagnosis based on clinical impression (n=684) were excluded from the analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of the T-SPOT.TB were analyzed according to the final diagnosis. Furthermore, the diagnostic performance of T-SPOT.TB assay in the younger patients (14-59 years old) and elderly patients (60-89 years old) were also analyzed respectively. Categorical variables were compared by Pearson's Chi-square test, while continuous variables were compared by the Mann-Whitney U-test. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of the T-SPOT.TB in diagnosis of PTB were 90.1% (540/599), 65.5% (154/235), 86.9% (540/621), 72.3% (154/213), 2.61, and 0.15, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of T-SPOT.TB assay were 92.6% (375/405) and 75.6% (99/131), respectively in the younger patients, and 85.0% (165/194), 52.9% (55/104) respectively in the elderly patients. The sensitivity and specificity of T-SPOT.TB assay in the younger patients were significantly higher than those in the elderly patients (P<0.01), and the spot forming cells in the younger PTB patients were significantly higher than in the elderly PTB patients [300 (126, 666)/10(6) PBMCs vs. 258 (79, 621)/10(6) PBMCs, P=0.037]. T-SPOT.TB is a promising test in the diagnosis of younger patients (14-59 years old) with suspected PTB, but the diagnostic performance in elderly patients (60-89 years old) is relatively reduced.

[Waist-to-height ratio is an indicator of metabolic risk in children].

PubMed

Valle-Leal, Jaime; Abundis-Castro, Leticia; Hernández-Escareño, Juan; Flores-Rubio, Salvador

2016-01-01

Abdominal fat, particularly visceral, is associated with a high risk of metabolic complications. The waist-height ratio (WHtR) is used to assess abdominal fat in individuals of all ages. To determine the ability of the waist-to-height ratio to detect metabolic risk in mexican schoolchildren. A study was conducted on children between 6 and 12 years. Obesity was diagnosed as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 85th percentile, and an ICE ≥0.5 was considered abdominal obesity. Blood levels of glucose, cholesterol and triglycerides were measured. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative value, area under curve, the positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio of the WHtR and BMI were calculated in order to identify metabolic alterations. WHtR and BMI were compared to determine which had the best diagnostic efficiency. Of the 223 children included in the study, 51 had hypertriglyceridaemia, 27 with hypercholesterolaemia, and 9 with hyperglycaemia. On comparing the diagnostic efficiency of WHtR with that of BMI, there was a sensitivity of 100% vs. 56% for hyperglycaemia, 93 vs. 70% for cholesterol, and 76 vs. 59% for hypertriglyceridaemia. The specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and area under curve were also higher for WHtR. The WHtR is a more efficient indicator than BMI in identifying metabolic risk in mexican school-age. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic significance of microRNAs as novel biomarkers for bladder cancer: a meta-analysis of ten articles.

PubMed

Shi, Hong-Bin; Yu, Jia-Xing; Yu, Jian-Xiu; Feng, Zheng; Zhang, Chao; Li, Guang-Yong; Zhao, Rui-Ning; Yang, Xiao-Bo

2017-08-03

Previous studies have revealed the importance of microRNAs' (miRNAs) function as biomarkers in diagnosing human bladder cancer (BC). However, the results are discordant. Consequently, the possibility of miRNAs to be BC biomarkers was summarized in this meta-analysis. In this study, the relevant articles were systematically searched from CBM, PubMed, EMBASE, and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). The bivariate model was used to calculate the pooled diagnostic parameters and summary receiver operator characteristic (SROC) curve in this meta-analysis, thereby estimating the whole predictive performance. STATA software was used during the whole analysis. Thirty-one studies from 10 articles, including 1556 cases and 1347 controls, were explored in this meta-analysis. In short, the pooled sensitivity, area under the SROC curve, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were 0.72 (95%CI 0.66-0.76), 0.80 (0.77-0.84), 0.76 (0.71-0.81), 3.0 (2.4-3.8), 8 (5.0-12.0), and 0.37 (0.30-0.46) respectively. Additionally, sub-group and meta-regression analyses revealed that there were significant differences between ethnicity, miRNA profiling, and specimen sub-groups. These results suggested that Asian population-based studies, multiple-miRNA profiling, and blood-based assays might yield a higher diagnostic accuracy than their counterparts. This meta-analysis demonstrated that miRNAs, particularly multiple miRNAs in the blood, might be novel, useful biomarkers with relatively high sensitivity and specificity and can be used for the diagnosis of BC. However, further prospective studies with more samples should be performed for further validation.

Clinical Diagnosis of Bordetella Pertussis Infection: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Ebell, Mark H; Marchello, Christian; Callahan, Maria

2017-01-01

Bordetella pertussis (BP) is a common cause of prolonged cough. Our objective was to perform an updated systematic review of the clinical diagnosis of BP without restriction by patient age. We identified prospective cohort studies of patients with cough or suspected pertussis and assessed study quality using QUADAS-2. We performed bivariate meta-analysis to calculate summary estimates of accuracy and created summary receiver operating characteristic curves to explore heterogeneity by vaccination status and age. Of 381 studies initially identified, 22 met our inclusion criteria, of which 14 had a low risk of bias. The overall clinical impression was the most accurate predictor of BP (positive likelihood ratio [LR+], 3.3; negative likelihood ratio [LR-], 0.63). The presence of whooping cough (LR+, 2.1) and posttussive vomiting (LR+, 1.7) somewhat increased the likelihood of BP, whereas the absence of paroxysmal cough (LR-, 0.58) and the absence of sputum (LR-, 0.63) decreased it. Whooping cough and posttussive vomiting have lower sensitivity in adults. Clinical criteria defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were sensitive (0.90) but nonspecific. Typical signs and symptoms of BP may be more sensitive but less specific in vaccinated patients. The clinician's overall impression was the most accurate way to determine the likelihood of BP infection when a patient initially presented. Clinical decision rules that combine signs, symptoms, and point-of-care tests have not yet been developed or validated. © Copyright 2017 by the American Board of Family Medicine.

Analysis of Multiple Contingency Tables by Exact Conditional Tests for Zero Partial Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kreiner, Svend

The tests for zero partial association in a multiple contingency table have gained new importance with the introduction of graphical models. It is shown how these may be performed as exact conditional tests, using as test criteria either the ordinary likelihood ratio, the standard x squared statistic, or any other appropriate statistics. A…

Meta-analysis: identification of low birthweight by other anthropometric measurements at birth in developing countries.

PubMed

Goto, Eita

2011-01-01

Low birthweight should be identified early, even in developing countries where birthweight cannot be easily measured due to the absence of scales and trained staff. This meta-analysis evaluated and compared the use of other anthropometric measurements at birth to predict low birthweight. All studies of medium to high quality (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies score ≥8) published in English were included. Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves were used. A total of 69 studies evaluated foot length or the circumference of the chest, (mid-upper) arm, or thigh (n = 8, 25, 30, and 6, respectively). Chest circumference and arm circumference had areas under the curve >0.9 (0.95 for both), pooled positive likelihood ratios >5 (8.7 and 10.3, respectively), and negative likelihood ratios <0.2 (0.13 and 0.17, respectively); thigh circumference and foot length were less accurate. There was no substantial difference between chest and arm circumference with respect to pooled sensitivity (0.88 vs. 0.84, P = 0.505), specificity (0.90 vs. 0.92, P = 0.565), or diagnostic odds ratio (67 vs. 60, P = 0.552). However, as compared with arm circumference, chest circumference showed greater clustering of observations on the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve and narrower 95% confidence and prediction regions. Chest circumference and arm circumference have similarly high, although not confirmative, accuracy in predicting low birthweight; however, chest circumference appears to be more precise.

Diagnostic value of panoramic radiography in predicting inferior alveolar nerve injury after mandibular third molar extraction: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, W; Yin, W; Zhang, R; Li, J; Zheng, Y

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of panoramic radiography on inferior alveolar nerve (IAN) injury after extraction of the mandibular third molar. Relevant studies up to 1 June 2014 that discussed the association of panoramic radiography signs and post-mandibular third molar extraction IAN injury were systematically retrieved from the databases of PubMed, Embase, Springerlink, Web of Science and Cochrane library. The effect size of pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios (PLR), negative likelihood ratios (NLR) and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were statistically analysed with Meta-disc 1.4 software. Nine articles were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity were 0.56 (95% CI: 0.50-0.61) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.84-0.87), respectively. The overall PLR was 3.46 (95% CI: 2.02-5.92) and overall NLR was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.45-0.73). The pooled estimate of DOR was 6.49 (95% CI: 2.92-14.44). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.7143 ± 0.0604. The meta-analysis indicated that interpretation of panoramic radiography based on darkening of the root had a high specificity in predicting IAN injury after mandibular third molar extraction. However, the ability of this panoramic radiography marker to detect true positive IAN injury was not satisfactory. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

Inferring relationships between pairs of individuals from locus heterozygosities

PubMed Central

Presciuttini, Silvano; Toni, Chiara; Tempestini, Elena; Verdiani, Simonetta; Casarino, Lucia; Spinetti, Isabella; Stefano, Francesco De; Domenici, Ranieri; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E

2002-01-01

Background The traditional exact method for inferring relationships between individuals from genetic data is not easily applicable in all situations that may be encountered in several fields of applied genetics. This study describes an approach that gives affordable results and is easily applicable; it is based on the probabilities that two individuals share 0, 1 or both alleles at a locus identical by state. Results We show that these probabilities (zi) depend on locus heterozygosity (H), and are scarcely affected by variation of the distribution of allele frequencies. This allows us to obtain empirical curves relating zi's to H for a series of common relationships, so that the likelihood ratio of a pair of relationships between any two individuals, given their genotypes at a locus, is a function of a single parameter, H. Application to large samples of mother-child and full-sib pairs shows that the statistical power of this method to infer the correct relationship is not much lower than the exact method. Analysis of a large database of STR data proves that locus heterozygosity does not vary significantly among Caucasian populations, apart from special cases, so that the likelihood ratio of the more common relationships between pairs of individuals may be obtained by looking at tabulated zi values. Conclusions A simple method is provided, which may be used by any scientist with the help of a calculator or a spreadsheet to compute the likelihood ratios of common alternative relationships between pairs of individuals. PMID:12441003

Value of circulating cell-free DNA analysis as a diagnostic tool for breast cancer: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Ma, Xuelei; Zhang, Jing; Hu, Xiuying

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study was to systematically evaluate the diagnostic value of cell free DNA (cfDNA) for breast cancer. Results Among 308 candidate articles, 25 with relevant diagnostic screening qualified for final analysis. The mean sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) of SROC plots for 24 studies that distinguished breast cancer patients from healthy controls were 0.70, 0.87, and 0.9314, yielding a DOR of 32.31. When analyzed in subgroups, the 14 quantitative studies produced sensitivity, specificity, AUC, and a DOR of 0.78, 0.83, 0.9116, and 24.40. The 10 qualitative studies produced 0.50, 0.98, 0.9919, and 68.45. For 8 studies that distinguished malignant breast cancer from benign diseases, the specificity, sensitivity, AUC and DOR were 0.75, 0.79, 0.8213, and 9.49. No covariate factors had a significant correlation with relative DOR. Deek's funnel plots indicated an absence of publication bias. Materials and Methods Databases were searched for studies involving the use of cfDNA to diagnose breast cancer. The studies were analyzed to determine sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC). Covariates were evaluated for effect on relative DOR. Deek's Funnel plots were generated to measure publication bias. Conclusions Our analysis suggests a promising diagnostic potential of using cfDNA for breast cancer screening, but this diagnostic method is not yet independently sufficient. Further work refining qualitative cfDNA assays will improve the correct diagnosis of breast cancers. PMID:28460452

Breast-specific gamma camera imaging with 99mTc-MIBI has better diagnostic performance than magnetic resonance imaging in breast cancer patients: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Aimi; Li, Panli; Liu, Qiufang; Song, Shaoli

2017-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic role of breast-specific gamma camera imaging (BSGI) with technetium-99m-methoxy isobutyl isonitrile ( 99m Tc-MIBI) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with breast cancer through a meta-analysis. Three reviewers searched articles published in medical journals before June 2016 in MEDLINE, EMBASE and Springer Databases; the references listed in original articles were also retrieved. We used the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS) tool to assess the quality of the included studies. Heterogeneity, pooled sensitivity and specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves were calculated by Meta-DiSc software to estimate the diagnostic performance of BSGI and MRI. Ten studies with 517 patients were included after meeting the inclusion criteria. We did a subgroup analysis of the same data type. The pooled sensitivities of BSGI and MRI were: 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.88) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.92) respectively, and the pooled specificities of BSGI and MRI were: 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74-0.88) and 0.39 (95% CI, 0.30-0.49) respectively. The areas under the SROC curve of BSGI and MRI were 0.93 and 0.72 respectively. The results of our meta-analysis indicated that compared with MRI, BSGI has similar sensitivity, higher specificity, better diagnostic performance, and can be widely used in clinical practice.

The diagnostic value of polymerase chain reaction for Mycobacterium tuberculosis to distinguish intestinal tuberculosis from crohn's disease: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jin, Ting; Fei, Baoying; Zhang, Yu; He, Xujun

2017-01-01

Intestinal tuberculosis (ITB) and Crohn's disease (CD) are important differential diagnoses that can be difficult to distinguish. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is an efficient and promising tool. This meta-analysis was performed to systematically and objectively assess the potential diagnostic accuracy and clinical value of PCR for MTB in distinguishing ITB from CD. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Science Direct, and the Cochrane Library for eligible studies, and nine articles with 12 groups of data were identified. The included studies were subjected to quality assessment using the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. The summary estimates were as follows: sensitivity 0.47 (95% CI: 0.42-0.51); specificity 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93-0.97); the positive likelihood ratio (PLR) 10.68 (95% CI: 6.98-16.35); the negative likelihood ratio (NLR) 0.49 (95% CI: 0.33-0.71); and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 21.92 (95% CI: 13.17-36.48). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.9311, with a Q* value of 0.8664. Heterogeneity was found in the NLR. The heterogeneity of the studies was evaluated by meta-regression analysis and subgroup analysis. The current evidence suggests that PCR for MTB is a promising and highly specific diagnostic method to distinguish ITB from CD. However, physicians should also keep in mind that negative results cannot exclude ITB for its low sensitivity. Additional prospective studies are needed to further evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of PCR.

Circulating miR-128 as a potential diagnostic biomarker for glioma.

PubMed

Liang, Ruo-Fei; Li, Mao; Yang, Yuan; Wang, Xiang; Mao, Qing; Liu, Yan-Hui

2017-09-01

miR-128 in circulation is a promising marker for early diagnosis of glioma. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical value of circulating miR-128 in patients with glioma. A comprehensive literature search for relevant published articles (last search updated on December 29, 2016) was conducted in the Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, PubMed, and Embase. The quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS) tool was used to score the quality of the eligible studies. Meta-Disc 1.4 software was used to test for heterogeneity and to perform the meta-analysis. The three studies included in our study enrolled a total of 191 patients with glioma and 73 individuals without tumor. Using a fixed-effect model analysis, the summary assessments revealed that the pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.93), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81-0.96), 8.07 (95% CI: 4.21-15.46), and 0.13 (95% CI: 0.09-0.19), respectively. The diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of miR-128 was 65.00 (95% CI: 26.90-157.10), indicating that the overall accuracy of the miR-128 test for detecting glioma was high. The value of I 2 was 0.0%, indicating that there was no significant heterogeneity among studies. The present meta-analysis showed that circulating miR-128 might be a promising noninvasive biomarker for diagnosing glioma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating hazard ratios in cohort data with missing disease information due to death.

PubMed

Binder, Nadine; Herrnböck, Anne-Sophie; Schumacher, Martin

2017-03-01

In clinical and epidemiological studies information on the primary outcome of interest, that is, the disease status, is usually collected at a limited number of follow-up visits. The disease status can often only be retrieved retrospectively in individuals who are alive at follow-up, but will be missing for those who died before. Right-censoring the death cases at the last visit (ad-hoc analysis) yields biased hazard ratio estimates of a potential risk factor, and the bias can be substantial and occur in either direction. In this work, we investigate three different approaches that use the same likelihood contributions derived from an illness-death multistate model in order to more adequately estimate the hazard ratio by including the death cases into the analysis: a parametric approach, a penalized likelihood approach, and an imputation-based approach. We investigate to which extent these approaches allow for an unbiased regression analysis by evaluating their performance in simulation studies and on a real data example. In doing so, we use the full cohort with complete illness-death data as reference and artificially induce missing information due to death by setting discrete follow-up visits. Compared to an ad-hoc analysis, all considered approaches provide less biased or even unbiased results, depending on the situation studied. In the real data example, the parametric approach is seen to be too restrictive, whereas the imputation-based approach could almost reconstruct the original event history information. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The effects of rurality on substance use disorder diagnosis: A multiple-groups latent class analysis.

PubMed

Brooks, Billy; McBee, Matthew; Pack, Robert; Alamian, Arsham

2017-05-01

Rates of accidental overdose mortality from substance use disorder (SUD) have risen dramatically in the United States since 1990. Between 1999 and 2004 alone rates increased 62% nationwide, with rural overdose mortality increasing at a rate 3 times that seen in urban populations. Cultural differences between rural and urban populations (e.g., educational attainment, unemployment rates, social characteristics, etc.) affect the nature of SUD, leading to disparate risk of overdose across these communities. Multiple-groups latent class analysis with covariates was applied to data from the 2011 and 2012 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (n=12.140) to examine potential differences in latent classifications of SUD between rural and urban adult (aged 18years and older) populations. Nine drug categories were used to identify latent classes of SUD defined by probability of diagnosis within these categories. Once the class structures were established for rural and urban samples, posterior membership probabilities were entered into a multinomial regression analysis of socio-demographic predictors' association with the likelihood of SUD latent class membership. Latent class structures differed across the sub-groups, with the rural sample fitting a 3-class structure (Bootstrap Likelihood Ratio Test P value=0.03) and the urban fitting a 6-class model (Bootstrap Likelihood Ratio Test P value<0.0001). Overall the rural class structure exhibited less diversity in class structure and lower prevalence of SUD in multiple drug categories (e.g. cocaine, hallucinogens, and stimulants). This result supports the hypothesis that different underlying elements exist in the two populations that affect SUD patterns, and thus can inform the development of surveillance instruments, clinical services, and prevention programming tailored to specific communities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic value of 3D time-of-flight MRA in trigeminal neuralgia.

PubMed

Cai, Jing; Xin, Zhen-Xue; Zhang, Yu-Qiang; Sun, Jie; Lu, Ji-Liang; Xie, Feng

2015-08-01

The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the diagnostic value of 3D time-of-flight magnetic resonance angiography (3D-TOF-MRA) in trigeminal neuralgia (TN). Relevant studies were identified by computerized database searches supplemented by manual search strategies. The studies were included in accordance with stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria. Following a multistep screening process, high quality studies related to the diagnostic value of 3D-TOF-MRA in TN were selected for meta-analysis. Statistical analyses were conducted using Statistical Analysis Software (version 8.2; SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA) and Meta Disc (version 1.4; Unit of Clinical Biostatistics, Ramon y Cajal Hospital, Madrid, Spain). For the present meta-analysis, we initially retrieved 95 studies from database searches. A total of 13 studies were eventually enrolled containing a combined total of 1084 TN patients. The meta-analysis results demonstrated that the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic value of 3D-TOF-MRA in TN were 95% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93-0.96) and 77% (95% CI 0.66-0.86), respectively. The pooled positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 2.72 (95% CI 1.81-4.09) and 0.08 (95% CI 0.06-0.12), respectively. The pooled diagnostic odds ratio of 3D-TOF-MRA in TN was 52.92 (95% CI 26.39-106.11), and the corresponding area under the curve in the summary receiver operating characteristic curve based on the 3D-TOF-MRA diagnostic image of observers was 0.9695 (standard error 0.0165). Our results suggest that 3D-TOF-MRA has excellent sensitivity and specificity as a diagnostic tool for TN, and that it can accurately identify neurovascular compression in TN patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential diagnostic value of serum p53 antibody for detecting colorectal cancer: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Meng, Rongqin; Wang, Yang; He, Liang; He, Yuanqing; Du, Zedong

2018-04-01

Numerous studies have assessed the diagnostic value of serum p53 (s-p53) antibody in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC); however, results remain controversial. The present study aimed to comprehensively and quantitatively summarize the potential diagnostic value of s-p53 antibody in CRC. The present study utilized databases, including PubMed and EmBase, systematically regarding s-p53 antibody diagnosis in CRC, accessed on and prior to 31 July 2016. The quality of all the included studies was assessed using quality assessment of studies of diagnostic accuracy (QUADAS). The result of pooled sensitivity, pooled specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) were analyzed and compared with overall accuracy measures using diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) and area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Publication bias and heterogeneity were also assessed. A total of 11 trials that enrolled a combined 3,392 participants were included in the meta-analysis. Approximately 72.73% (8/11) of the included studies were of high quality (QUADAS score >7), and all were retrospective case-control studies. The pooled sensitivity was 0.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.18-0.21] and pooled specificity was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94). Results also demonstrated a PLR of 4.56 (95% CI, 3.27-6.34), NLR of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.71-0.85) and DOR of 6.70 (95% CI, 4.59-9.76). The symmetrical summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.73. Furthermore, no evidence of publication bias or heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis data indicated that s-p53 antibody possesses potential diagnostic value for CRC. However, discrimination power was somewhat limited due to the low sensitivity.

A likelihood ratio anomaly detector for identifying within-perimeter computer network attacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grana, Justin; Wolpert, David; Neil, Joshua

The rapid detection of attackers within firewalls of enterprise computer networks is of paramount importance. Anomaly detectors address this problem by quantifying deviations from baseline statistical models of normal network behavior and signaling an intrusion when the observed data deviates significantly from the baseline model. But, many anomaly detectors do not take into account plausible attacker behavior. As a result, anomaly detectors are prone to a large number of false positives due to unusual but benign activity. Our paper first introduces a stochastic model of attacker behavior which is motivated by real world attacker traversal. Then, we develop a likelihoodmore » ratio detector that compares the probability of observed network behavior under normal conditions against the case when an attacker has possibly compromised a subset of hosts within the network. Since the likelihood ratio detector requires integrating over the time each host becomes compromised, we illustrate how to use Monte Carlo methods to compute the requisite integral. We then present Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves for various network parameterizations that show for any rate of true positives, the rate of false positives for the likelihood ratio detector is no higher than that of a simple anomaly detector and is often lower. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of the proposed likelihood ratio detector when the network topologies and parameterizations are extracted from real-world networks.« less

A likelihood ratio anomaly detector for identifying within-perimeter computer network attacks

DOE PAGES

Grana, Justin; Wolpert, David; Neil, Joshua; ...

2016-03-11

The rapid detection of attackers within firewalls of enterprise computer networks is of paramount importance. Anomaly detectors address this problem by quantifying deviations from baseline statistical models of normal network behavior and signaling an intrusion when the observed data deviates significantly from the baseline model. But, many anomaly detectors do not take into account plausible attacker behavior. As a result, anomaly detectors are prone to a large number of false positives due to unusual but benign activity. Our paper first introduces a stochastic model of attacker behavior which is motivated by real world attacker traversal. Then, we develop a likelihoodmore » ratio detector that compares the probability of observed network behavior under normal conditions against the case when an attacker has possibly compromised a subset of hosts within the network. Since the likelihood ratio detector requires integrating over the time each host becomes compromised, we illustrate how to use Monte Carlo methods to compute the requisite integral. We then present Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves for various network parameterizations that show for any rate of true positives, the rate of false positives for the likelihood ratio detector is no higher than that of a simple anomaly detector and is often lower. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of the proposed likelihood ratio detector when the network topologies and parameterizations are extracted from real-world networks.« less

A scaling transformation for classifier output based on likelihood ratio: Applications to a CAD workstation for diagnosis of breast cancer

PubMed Central

Horsch, Karla; Pesce, Lorenzo L.; Giger, Maryellen L.; Metz, Charles E.; Jiang, Yulei

2012-01-01

Purpose: The authors developed scaling methods that monotonically transform the output of one classifier to the “scale” of another. Such transformations affect the distribution of classifier output while leaving the ROC curve unchanged. In particular, they investigated transformations between radiologists and computer classifiers, with the goal of addressing the problem of comparing and interpreting case-specific values of output from two classifiers. Methods: Using both simulated and radiologists’ rating data of breast imaging cases, the authors investigated a likelihood-ratio-scaling transformation, based on “matching” classifier likelihood ratios. For comparison, three other scaling transformations were investigated that were based on matching classifier true positive fraction, false positive fraction, or cumulative distribution function, respectively. The authors explored modifying the computer output to reflect the scale of the radiologist, as well as modifying the radiologist’s ratings to reflect the scale of the computer. They also evaluated how dataset size affects the transformations. Results: When ROC curves of two classifiers differed substantially, the four transformations were found to be quite different. The likelihood-ratio scaling transformation was found to vary widely from radiologist to radiologist. Similar results were found for the other transformations. Our simulations explored the effect of database sizes on the accuracy of the estimation of our scaling transformations. Conclusions: The likelihood-ratio-scaling transformation that the authors have developed and evaluated was shown to be capable of transforming computer and radiologist outputs to a common scale reliably, thereby allowing the comparison of the computer and radiologist outputs on the basis of a clinically relevant statistic. PMID:22559651

Lead isotope ratios for bullets, forensic evaluation in a Bayesian paradigm.

PubMed

Sjåstad, Knut-Endre; Lucy, David; Andersen, Tom

2016-01-01

Forensic science is a discipline concerned with collection, examination and evaluation of physical evidence related to criminal cases. The results from the activities of the forensic scientist may ultimately be presented to the court in such a way that the triers of fact understand the implications of the data. Forensic science has been, and still is, driven by development of new technology, and in the last two decades evaluation of evidence based on logical reasoning and Bayesian statistic has reached some level of general acceptance within the forensic community. Tracing of lead fragments of unknown origin to a given source of ammunition is a task that might be of interest for the Court. Use of data from lead isotope ratios analysis interpreted within a Bayesian framework has shown to be suitable method to guide the Court to draw their conclusion for such task. In this work we have used isotopic composition of lead from small arms projectiles (cal. .22) and developed an approach based on Bayesian statistics and likelihood ratio calculation. The likelihood ratio is a single quantity that provides a measure of the value of evidence that can be used in the deliberation of the court. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electroencephalogram-based decoding cognitive states using convolutional neural network and likelihood ratio based score fusion

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Electroencephalogram (EEG)-based decoding human brain activity is challenging, owing to the low spatial resolution of EEG. However, EEG is an important technique, especially for brain–computer interface applications. In this study, a novel algorithm is proposed to decode brain activity associated with different types of images. In this hybrid algorithm, convolutional neural network is modified for the extraction of features, a t-test is used for the selection of significant features and likelihood ratio-based score fusion is used for the prediction of brain activity. The proposed algorithm takes input data from multichannel EEG time-series, which is also known as multivariate pattern analysis. Comprehensive analysis was conducted using data from 30 participants. The results from the proposed method are compared with current recognized feature extraction and classification/prediction techniques. The wavelet transform-support vector machine method is the most popular currently used feature extraction and prediction method. This method showed an accuracy of 65.7%. However, the proposed method predicts the novel data with improved accuracy of 79.9%. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm outperformed the current feature extraction and prediction method. PMID:28558002

Physician Bayesian updating from personal beliefs about the base rate and likelihood ratio.

PubMed

Rottman, Benjamin Margolin

2017-02-01

Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis. On the one hand, the posttest judgments were strongly related to the physicians' beliefs about both the prior probability as well as the likelihood ratio, and the priors were used considerably more strongly than in previous research. On the other hand, both the prior and the likelihoods were still not used quite as much as they should have been, and there was evidence of other nonnormative aspects to the updating, such as updating independent of the likelihood beliefs. By focusing on how physicians use their own prior beliefs for Bayesian updating, this study provides insight into how well experts perform probabilistic inference in settings in which they rely upon their own prior beliefs rather than experimenter-provided cues. It suggests that there is reason to be optimistic about experts' abilities, but that there is still considerable need for improvement.

Localizing multiple X chromosome-linked retinitis pigmentosa loci using multilocus homogeneity tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ott, J.; Terwilliger, J.D.; Bhattacharya, S.

1990-01-01

Multilocus linkage analysis of 62 family pedigrees with X chromosome-linked retinitis pigmentosa (XLRP) was undertaken to determine the presence of possible multiple disease loci and to reliability estimate their map location. Multilocus homogeneity tests furnish convincing evidence for the presence of two XLRP loci, the likelihood ratio being 6.4 {times} 10{sup 9}:1 in a favor of two versus a single XLRP locus and gave accurate estimates for their map location. In 60-75% of the families, location of an XLRP gene was estimated at 1 centimorgan distal to OTC, and in 25-40% of the families, an XLRP locus was located halfwaymore » between DXS14 (p58-1) and DXZ1 (Xcen), with an estimated recombination fraction of 25% between the two XLRP loci. There is also good evidence for third XLRP locus, midway between DXS28 (C7) and DXS164 (pERT87), supported by a likelihood ratio of 293:1 for three versus two XLRP loci.« less

Probabilistic evaluation of n traces with no putative source: A likelihood ratio based approach in an investigative framework.

PubMed

De March, I; Sironi, E; Taroni, F

2016-09-01

Analysis of marks recovered from different crime scenes can be useful to detect a linkage between criminal cases, even though a putative source for the recovered traces is not available. This particular circumstance is often encountered in the early stage of investigations and thus, the evaluation of evidence association may provide useful information for the investigators. This association is evaluated here from a probabilistic point of view: a likelihood ratio based approach is suggested in order to quantify the strength of the evidence of trace association in the light of two mutually exclusive propositions, namely that the n traces come from a common source or from an unspecified number of sources. To deal with this kind of problem, probabilistic graphical models are used, in form of Bayesian networks and object-oriented Bayesian networks, allowing users to intuitively handle with uncertainty related to the inferential problem. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Primer on Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis and Diagnostic Efficiency Statistics for Pediatric Psychology: We Are Ready to ROC

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder. Method Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Results Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores <8 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio <0.3, and scores >30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4. Conclusions This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses. PMID:23965298

A primer on receiver operating characteristic analysis and diagnostic efficiency statistics for pediatric psychology: we are ready to ROC.

PubMed

Youngstrom, Eric A

2014-03-01

To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder. Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores <8 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio <0.3, and scores >30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4. This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses.

Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors.

PubMed

Morrison, Geoffrey Stewart; Poh, Norman

2018-05-01

When strength of forensic evidence is quantified using sample data and statistical models, a concern may be raised as to whether the output of a model overestimates the strength of evidence. This is particularly the case when the amount of sample data is small, and hence sampling variability is high. This concern is related to concern about precision. This paper describes, explores, and tests three procedures which shrink the value of the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor toward the neutral value of one. The procedures are: (1) a Bayesian procedure with uninformative priors, (2) use of empirical lower and upper bounds (ELUB), and (3) a novel form of regularized logistic regression. As a benchmark, they are compared with linear discriminant analysis, and in some instances with non-regularized logistic regression. The behaviours of the procedures are explored using Monte Carlo simulated data, and tested on real data from comparisons of voice recordings, face images, and glass fragments. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Likelihood Ratio, Optimal Decision Rules, and Relationship between Proportion Correct and d' in the Dual-Pair AB vs BA identification Paradigm

PubMed Central

Micheyl, Christophe; Dai, Huanping

2010-01-01

The equal-variance Gaussian signal-detection-theory (SDT) decision model for the dual-pair change-detection (or “4IAX”) paradigm has been described in earlier publications. In this note, we consider the equal-variance Gaussian SDT model for the related dual-pair AB vs BA identification paradigm. The likelihood ratios, optimal decision rules, receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), and relationships between d' and proportion-correct (PC) are analyzed for two special cases: that of statistically independent observations, which is likely to apply in constant-stimuli experiments, and that of highly correlated observations, which is likely to apply in experiments where stimuli are roved widely across trials or pairs. A surprising outcome of this analysis is that although these two situations lead to different optimal decision rules, the predicted ROCs and proportions of correct responses (PCs) for these two cases are not substantially different, and are either identical or similar to those observed in the basic Yes-No paradigm. PMID:19633356

Analysis of factors associated with traffic accidents of cyclists attended in Brazilian state capitals.

PubMed

Sousa, Carlos Augusto Moreira de; Bahia, Camila Alves; Constantino, Patrícia

2016-12-01

Brazil has the sixth largest bicycles fleet in the world and bicycle is the most used individual transport vehicle in the country. Few studies address the issue of cyclists' accidents and factors that contribute to or prevent this event. VIVA is a cross-sectional survey and is part of the Violence and Accidents Surveillance System, Brazilian Ministry of Health. We used complex sampling and subsequent data review through multivariate logistic regression and calculation of the respective odds ratios. Odds ratios showed greater likelihood of cyclists' accidents in males, people with less schooling and living in urban and periurban areas. People who were not using the bike to go to work were more likely to suffer an accident. The profile found in this study corroborates findings of other studies. They claim that the coexistence of cyclists and other means of transportation in the same urban space increases the likelihood of accidents. The construction of bicycle-exclusive spaces and educational campaigns are required.

Equivalence of binormal likelihood-ratio and bi-chi-squared ROC curve models

PubMed Central

Hillis, Stephen L.

2015-01-01

A basic assumption for a meaningful diagnostic decision variable is that there is a monotone relationship between it and its likelihood ratio. This relationship, however, generally does not hold for a decision variable that results in a binormal ROC curve. As a result, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve estimation based on the assumption of a binormal ROC-curve model produces improper ROC curves that have “hooks,” are not concave over the entire domain, and cross the chance line. Although in practice this “improperness” is usually not noticeable, sometimes it is evident and problematic. To avoid this problem, Metz and Pan proposed basing ROC-curve estimation on the assumption of a binormal likelihood-ratio (binormal-LR) model, which states that the decision variable is an increasing transformation of the likelihood-ratio function of a random variable having normal conditional diseased and nondiseased distributions. However, their development is not easy to follow. I show that the binormal-LR model is equivalent to a bi-chi-squared model in the sense that the families of corresponding ROC curves are the same. The bi-chi-squared formulation provides an easier-to-follow development of the binormal-LR ROC curve and its properties in terms of well-known distributions. PMID:26608405

Usefulness of Cellular Analysis of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Predicting the Etiology of Pneumonia in Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Hong, Hyo-Lim; Kim, Sung-Han; Huh, Jin Won; Sung, Heungsup; Lee, Sang-Oh; Kim, Mi-Na; Jeong, Jin-Yong; Lim, Chae-Man; Kim, Yang Soo; Woo, Jun Hee; Koh, Younsuck

2014-01-01

Background The usefulness of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid cellular analysis in pneumonia has not been adequately evaluated. This study investigated the ability of cellular analysis of BAL fluid to differentially diagnose bacterial pneumonia from viral pneumonia in adult patients who are admitted to intensive care unit. Methods BAL fluid cellular analysis was evaluated in 47 adult patients who underwent bronchoscopic BAL following less than 24 hours of antimicrobial agent exposure. The abilities of BAL fluid total white blood cell (WBC) counts and differential cell counts to differentiate between bacterial and viral pneumonia were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results Bacterial pneumonia (n = 24) and viral pneumonia (n = 23) were frequently associated with neutrophilic pleocytosis in BAL fluid. BAL fluid median total WBC count (2,815/µL vs. 300/µL, P<0.001) and percentage of neutrophils (80.5% vs. 54.0%, P = 0.02) were significantly higher in the bacterial pneumonia group than in the viral pneumonia group. In ROC curve analysis, BAL fluid total WBC count showed the best discrimination, with an area under the curve of 0.855 (95% CI, 0.750–0.960). BAL fluid total WBC count ≥510/µL had a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 78.3%, positive likelihood ratio (PLR) of 3.83, and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) of 0.21. When analyzed in combination with serum procalcitonin or C-reactive protein, sensitivity was 95.8%, specificity was 95.7%, PLR was 8.63, and NLR was 0.07. BAL fluid total WBC count ≥510/µL was an independent predictor of bacterial pneumonia with an adjusted odds ratio of 13.5 in multiple logistic regression analysis. Conclusions Cellular analysis of BAL fluid can aid early differential diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia from viral pneumonia in critically ill patients. PMID:24824328

Diagnostic Performance of Electronic Syndromic Surveillance Systems in Acute Care

PubMed Central

Kashiouris, M.; O’Horo, J.C.; Pickering, B.W.; Herasevich, V.

2013-01-01

Context Healthcare Electronic Syndromic Surveillance (ESS) is the systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of ongoing clinical data with subsequent dissemination of results, which aid clinical decision-making. Objective To evaluate, classify and analyze the diagnostic performance, strengths and limitations of existing acute care ESS systems. Data Sources All available to us studies in Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, CINAHL and Scopus databases, from as early as January 1972 through the first week of September 2012. Study Selection: Prospective and retrospective trials, examining the diagnostic performance of inpatient ESS and providing objective diagnostic data including sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values. Data Extraction Two independent reviewers extracted diagnostic performance data on ESS systems, including clinical area, number of decision points, sensitivity and specificity. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated for each healthcare ESS system. A likelihood matrix summarizing the various ESS systems performance was created. Results The described search strategy yielded 1639 articles. Of these, 1497 were excluded on abstract information. After full text review, abstraction and arbitration with a third reviewer, 33 studies met inclusion criteria, reporting 102,611 ESS decision points. The yielded I2 was high (98.8%), precluding meta-analysis. Performance was variable, with sensitivities ranging from 21% –100% and specificities ranging from 5%-100%. Conclusions There is significant heterogeneity in the diagnostic performance of the available ESS implements in acute care, stemming from the wide spectrum of different clinical entities and ESS systems. Based on the results, we introduce a conceptual framework using a likelihood ratio matrix for evaluation and meaningful application of future, frontline clinical decision support systems. PMID:23874359

Accuracy of Urine Color to Detect Equal to or Greater Than 2% Body Mass Loss in Men.

PubMed

McKenzie, Amy L; Muñoz, Colleen X; Armstrong, Lawrence E

2015-12-01

Clinicians and athletes can benefit from field-expedient measurement tools, such as urine color, to assess hydration state; however, the diagnostic efficacy of this tool has not been established. To determine the diagnostic accuracy of urine color assessment to distinguish a hypohydrated state (≥2% body mass loss [BML]) from a euhydrated state (<2% BML) after exercise in a hot environment. Controlled laboratory study. Environmental chamber in a laboratory. Twenty-two healthy men (age = 22 ± 3 years, height = 180.4 ± 8.7 cm, mass = 77.9 ± 12.8 kg, body fat = 10.6% ± 4.6%). Participants cycled at 68% ± 6% of their maximal heart rates in a hot environment (36°C ± 1°C) for 5 hours or until 5% BML was achieved. At the point of each 1% BML, we assessed urine color. Diagnostic efficacy of urine color was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. Urine color was useful as a diagnostic tool to identify hypohydration after exercise in the heat (area under the curve = 0.951, standard error = 0.022; P < .001). A urine color of 5 or greater identified BML ≥2% with 88.9% sensitivity and 84.8% specificity (positive likelihood ratio = 5.87, negative likelihood ratio = 0.13). Under the conditions of acute dehydration due to exercise in a hot environment, urine color assessment can be a valid, practical, inexpensive tool for assessing hydration status. Researchers should examine the utility of urine color to identify a hypohydrated state under different BML conditions.

Accuracy of Tactile Assessment of Fever in Children by Caregivers: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Yan-Wei; Zhou, Le-Shan; Li, Xing

2017-03-15

Fever is the most common complaint in the pediatric and emergency departments. Caregivers prefer to detect fever in their children by tactile assessment. To summarize the evidence on the accuracy of caregivers' tactile assessment for detecting fever in children. We performed a literature search of Cochrane Library, PubMed, Web of Knowledge, EMBASE (ovid), EBSCO and Google Scholar, without restriction of publication date, to identify English articles assessing caregivers' ability of detecting fever in children by tactile assessment. Quality assessment was based on the 2011 Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) criteria. Pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated with use of bivariate model and summary receiver operation characteristics plots for meta-analysis. 11 articles were included in our analysis. The summary estimates for tactile assessment as a diagnostic tool revealed a sensitivity of 87.5% (95% CI 79.3% to 92.8%) and specificity of 54.6% (95% CI 38.5% to 69.9%). The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 1.93 (95% CI 1.39 to 2.67) and negative likelihood ratio was 0.23 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.36). Area under curve was 0.82 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.85). The pooled diagnostic odds ratio was 8.46 (95% CI 4.54 to 15.76). Tactile assessment of fever in children by palpation has moderate diagnostic value. Caregivers' assessment as "no fever" by touch is quite accurate in ruling out fever, while assessment as "fever" can be considered but needs confirmation.

Diagnostic accuracy of central venous catheter confirmation by bedside ultrasound versus chest radiography in critically ill patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Ablordeppey, Enyo A.; Drewry, Anne M.; Beyer, Alexander B.; Theodoro, Daniel L.; Fowler, Susan A.; Fuller, Brian M.; Carpenter, Christopher R.

2016-01-01

Objective We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the accuracy of bedside ultrasound for confirmation of central venous catheter position and exclusion of pneumothorax compared to chest radiography. Data Sources PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, reference lists, conference proceedings and ClinicalTrials.gov Study Selection Articles and abstracts describing the diagnostic accuracy of bedside ultrasound compared with chest radiography for confirmation of central venous catheters in sufficient detail to reconstruct 2×2 contingency tables were reviewed. Primary outcomes included the accuracy of confirming catheter positioning and detecting a pneumothorax. Secondary outcomes included feasibility, inter-rater reliability, and efficiency to complete bedside ultrasound confirmation of central venous catheter position. Data Extraction Investigators abstracted study details including research design and sonographic imaging technique to detect catheter malposition and procedure-related pneumothorax. Diagnostic accuracy measures included pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Data Synthesis 15 studies with 1553 central venous catheter placements were identified with a pooled sensitivity and specificity of catheter malposition by ultrasound of 0.82 [0.77, 0.86] and 0.98 [0.97, 0.99] respectively. The pooled positive and negative likelihood ratios of catheter malposition by ultrasound were 31.12 [14.72, 65.78] and 0.25 [0.13, 0.47]. The sensitivity and specificity of ultrasound for pneumothorax detection was nearly 100% in the participating studies. Bedside ultrasound reduced mean central venous catheter confirmation time by 58.3 minutes. Risk of bias and clinical heterogeneity in the studies were high. Conclusions Bedside ultrasound is faster than radiography at identifying pneumothorax after central venous catheter insertion. When a central venous catheter malposition exists, bedside ultrasound will identify four out of every five earlier than chest radiography. PMID:27922877

The diagnostic accuracy of physical examination compared to lung ultrasound for determining lung congestion in hemodialysis patients who have reached their dry weight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahardjo, K. D.; Dharmaeizar; Nainggolan, G.; Harimurti, K.

2017-08-01

Research has shown that hemodialysis patients with lung congestion have high morbidity and mortality. Patients were assumed to be free of lung congestion if they had reached their post-dialysis dry weight. Most often, to determine if the patient was free of lung congestion, physical examination was used. However, the accuracy of physical examination in detecting lung congestion has not been established. To compare the capabilities of physical examination and lung ultrasound in detection of lung congestion, cross-sectional data collection was conducted on hemodialysis patients. Analysis was done to obtain proportion, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and positive likelihood ratio. Sixty patients participated in this study. The inter observer variation of 20 patients revealed a kappa value of 0.828. When all 60 patients were taken into account, we found that 36 patients (57.1%) had lung congestion. Mild lung congestion was found in 24 (38.1%), and 12 (19%) had a moderate degree of congestion. In the analysis comparing jugular venous pressure to lung ultrasound, we found that sensitivity was 0.47 (0.31-0.63), specificity was 0.73 (0.54-0.86), positive predictive value (PPV) was 0.51 (0.36-0.67), negative predictive value (NPV) was 0.70 (0.49-0.84), positive likelihood ratio (PLR) was 1.75 (0.88-3.47), and the negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was 0.72 (0.47-1.12). In terms of lung auscultation, we found that sensitivity was 0.56 (0.39-0.71), specificity was 0.54 (0.35-0.71), PPV was 0.61 (0.44-0.76), NPV was 0.48 (0.31-0.66), PLR was 1.21 (0.73-2.0), and NLR was 0.82 (0.49-1.38). The results of our study showed that jugular venous distention and lung auscultation examination are not reliable means of detecting lung congestion.

A preliminary evaluation of the generalized likelihood ratio for detecting and identifying control element failures in a transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bundick, W. T.

1985-01-01

The application of the Generalized Likelihood Ratio technique to the detection and identification of aircraft control element failures has been evaluated in a linear digital simulation of the longitudinal dynamics of a B-737 aircraft. Simulation results show that the technique has potential but that the effects of wind turbulence and Kalman filter model errors are problems which must be overcome.

Which Statistic Should Be Used to Detect Item Preknowledge When the Set of Compromised Items Is Known?

PubMed

Sinharay, Sandip

2017-09-01

Benefiting from item preknowledge is a major type of fraudulent behavior during educational assessments. Belov suggested the posterior shift statistic for detection of item preknowledge and showed its performance to be better on average than that of seven other statistics for detection of item preknowledge for a known set of compromised items. Sinharay suggested a statistic based on the likelihood ratio test for detection of item preknowledge; the advantage of the statistic is that its null distribution is known. Results from simulated and real data and adaptive and nonadaptive tests are used to demonstrate that the Type I error rate and power of the statistic based on the likelihood ratio test are very similar to those of the posterior shift statistic. Thus, the statistic based on the likelihood ratio test appears promising in detecting item preknowledge when the set of compromised items is known.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Framework for adaptive multiscale analysis of nonhomogeneous point processes.

PubMed

Helgason, Hannes; Bartroff, Jay; Abry, Patrice

2011-01-01

We develop the methodology for hypothesis testing and model selection in nonhomogeneous Poisson processes, with an eye toward the application of modeling and variability detection in heart beat data. Modeling the process' non-constant rate function using templates of simple basis functions, we develop the generalized likelihood ratio statistic for a given template and a multiple testing scheme to model-select from a family of templates. A dynamic programming algorithm inspired by network flows is used to compute the maximum likelihood template in a multiscale manner. In a numerical example, the proposed procedure is nearly as powerful as the super-optimal procedures that know the true template size and true partition, respectively. Extensions to general history-dependent point processes is discussed.

Empirical likelihood method for non-ignorable missing data problems.

PubMed

Guan, Zhong; Qin, Jing

2017-01-01

Missing response problem is ubiquitous in survey sampling, medical, social science and epidemiology studies. It is well known that non-ignorable missing is the most difficult missing data problem where the missing of a response depends on its own value. In statistical literature, unlike the ignorable missing data problem, not many papers on non-ignorable missing data are available except for the full parametric model based approach. In this paper we study a semiparametric model for non-ignorable missing data in which the missing probability is known up to some parameters, but the underlying distributions are not specified. By employing Owen (1988)'s empirical likelihood method we can obtain the constrained maximum empirical likelihood estimators of the parameters in the missing probability and the mean response which are shown to be asymptotically normal. Moreover the likelihood ratio statistic can be used to test whether the missing of the responses is non-ignorable or completely at random. The theoretical results are confirmed by a simulation study. As an illustration, the analysis of a real AIDS trial data shows that the missing of CD4 counts around two years are non-ignorable and the sample mean based on observed data only is biased.

Investigation of Acoustic Structure Quantification in the Diagnosis of Thyroiditis.

PubMed

Park, Jisang; Hong, Hyun Sook; Kim, Chul-Hee; Lee, Eun Hye; Jeong, Sun Hye; Lee, A Leum; Lee, Heon

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of acoustic structure quantification (ASQ) to diagnose thyroiditis. The echogenicity of 439 thyroid lobes, as determined using ASQ, was quantified and analyzed retrospectively. Thyroiditis was categorized into five subgroups. The results were presented in a modified chi-square histogram as the mode, average, ratio, blue mode, and blue average. We determined the cutoff values of ASQ from ROC analysis to detect and differentiate thyroiditis from a normal thyroid gland. We obtained data on the sensitivity and specificity of the cutoff values to distinguish between euthyroid patients with thyroiditis and patients with a normal thyroid gland. The mean ASQ values for patients with thyroiditis were statistically significantly greater than those for patients with a normal thyroid gland (p < 0.001). The AUCs were as follows: 0.93 for the ratio, 0.91 for the average, 0.90 for the blue average, 0.87 for the mode, and 0.87 for the blue mode. For the diagnosis of thyroiditis, the cutoff values were greater than 0.27 for the ratio, greater than 116.7 for the mean, and greater than 130.7 for the blue average. The sensitivities and specificities were as follows: 84.0% and 96.6% for the ratio, 85.3% and 83.0%, for the average, and 79.1% and 93.2% for the blue average, respectively. The ASQ parameters were successful in distinguishing patients with thyroiditis from patients with a normal thyroid gland, with likelihood ratios of 24.7 for the ratio, 5.0 for the average, and 11.6 for the blue average. With the use of the aforementioned cutoff values, the sensitivities and specificities for distinguishing between patients with thyroiditis and euthyroid patients without thyroiditis were 77.05% and 94.92% for the ratio, 85.25% and 82.20% for the average, and 77.05% and 92.37% for the blue average, respectively. ASQ can provide objective and quantitative analysis of thyroid echogenicity. ASQ parameters were successful in distinguishing between patients with thyroiditis and individuals without thyroiditis, with likelihood ratios of 24.7 for the ratio, 5.0 for the average, and 11.6 for the blue average.

On the Power Functions of Test Statistics in Order Restricted Inference.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-01

California-Davis Actuarial Science Davis, California 95616 The University of Iowa Iowa City, Iowa 52242 *F. T. Wright Department of Mathematics and...34 SUMMARY --We study the power functions of both the likelihood ratio and con- trast statistics for detecting a totally ordered trend in a collection...samples from normal populations, Bartholomew (1959 a,b; 1961) studied the likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) for H0 versus H -H assuming in one case that

Endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle core biopsy for the diagnosis of pancreatic malignant lesions: a systematic review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Yongtao; Li, Lianyong; Qu, Changmin; Liang, Shuwen; Zeng, Bolun; Luo, Zhiwen

2016-01-01

Endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle core biopsy (EUS-FNB) has been used as an effective method of diagnosing pancreatic malignant lesions. It has the advantage of providing well preserved tissue for histologic grading and subsequent molecular biological analysis. In order to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of EUS-FNB for pancreatic malignant lesions, studies assessing EUS-FNB to diagnose solid pancreatic masses were selected via Medline. Sixteen articles published between 2005 and 2015, covering 828 patients, met the inclusion criteria. The summary estimates for EUS-FNB differentiating malignant from benign solid pancreatic masses were: sensitivity 0.84 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82–0.87); specificity 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93–1.00); positive likelihood ratio 8.0 (95% CI 4.5–14.4); negative likelihood ratio 0.17 (95% CI 0.10–0.26); and DOR 64 (95% CI 30.4–134.8). The area under the sROC curve was 0.96. Subgroup analysis did not identify other factors that could substantially affect the diagnostic accuracy, such as the study design, location of study, number of centers, location of lesion, whether or not a cytopathologist was present, and so on. EUS-FNB is a reliable diagnostic tool for solid pancreatic masses and should be especially considered for pathology where histologic morphology is preferred for diagnosis. PMID:26960914

TOO MANY MEN? SEX RATIOS AND WOMEN’S PARTNERING BEHAVIOR IN CHINA

PubMed Central

Trent, Katherine; South, Scott J.

2011-01-01

The relative numbers of women and men are changing dramatically in China, but the consequences of these imbalanced sex ratios have received little attention. We merge data from the Chinese Health and Family Life Survey with community-level data from Chinese censuses to examine the relationship between cohort- and community-specific sex ratios and women’s partnering behavior. Consistent with demographic-opportunity theory and sociocultural theory, we find that high sex ratios (indicating more men relative to women) are associated with an increased likelihood that women marry before age 25. However, high sex ratios are also associated with an increased likelihood that women engage in premarital and extramarital sexual relationships and have had more than one sexual partner, findings consistent with demographic-opportunity theory but inconsistent with sociocultural theory. PMID:22199403

Diagnostic value of survivin for malignant pleural effusion: a clinical study and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tian, Panwen; Shen, Yongchun; Wan, Chun; Yang, Ting; An, Jing; Yi, Qun; Chen, Lei; Wang, Tao; Wang, Ye; Wen, Fuqiang

2014-01-01

To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of survivin for malignant pleural effusion (MPE). Pleural effusion samples were collected from 40 MPE patients and 45 non-MPE patients. Pleural levels of survivin were measured by ELISA. Literature search was performed in Pubmed and Embase to identify studies regarding the usefulness of survivin to diagnose MPE. Data were retrieved and the pooled sensitivity, specificity and other diagnostic indexes were calculated. The summary receiver operating characteristics (SROC) curve was used to determine the overall diagnostic accuracy. The pleural levels of survivin were higher in MPE patients than non-MPE patients (844.17 ± 358.30 vs. 508.08 ± 169.58 pg/ml, P < 0.05), at a cut-off value of 683.2 pg/ml, the sensitivity and specificity were 57.50% and 88.89%, respectively. A total of six studies were included in present meta-analysis, the overall diagnostic estimates were: sensitivity 0.74 (95% CI: 0.59-0.85); specificity, 0.85 (95% CI: 0.79-0.89); positive likelihood ratio, 4.79 (95% CI: 3.48-6.61); negative likelihood ratio, 0.31 (95% CI: 0.19-0.50), and diagnostic odds ratio, 15.59 (95% CI: 7.69-31.61). The area under SROC curve was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.82-0.89). Our study confirms that the pleural survivin plays a role in the diagnosis of MPE. More studies at a large scale should be performed to validate our findings.

Accuracy of combined dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion-weighted imaging for breast cancer detection: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Li; Tang, Min; Min, Zhiqian; Lu, Jun; Lei, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Xiaoling

2016-06-01

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is increasingly being used to examine patients with suspected breast cancer. To determine the diagnostic performance of combined dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) for breast cancer detection. A comprehensive search of the PUBMED, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases was performed up to September 2014. Statistical analysis included pooling of sensitivity and specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and diagnostic accuracy using the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC). All analyses were conducted using STATA (version 12.0), RevMan (version 5.2), and Meta-Disc 1.4 software programs. Fourteen studies were analyzed, which included a total of 1140 patients with 1276 breast lesions. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of combined DCE-MRI and DWI were 91.6% and 85.5%, respectively. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of DWI-MRI were 86.0% and 75.6%, respectively. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of DCE-MRI were 93.2% and 71.1%. The area under the SROC curve (AUC-SROC) of combined DCE-MRI and DWI was 0.94, the DCE-MRI of 0.85. Deeks testing confirmed no significant publication bias in all studies. Combined DCE-MRI and DWI had superior diagnostic accuracy than either DCE-MRI or DWI alone for the diagnosis of breast cancer. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2015.

Instantaneous wave-free ratio as an alternative to fractional flow reserve in assessment of moderate coronary stenoses: A meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies.

PubMed

Maini, Rohit; Moscona, John; Katigbak, Paul; Fernandez, Camilo; Sidhu, Gursukhmandeep; Saleh, Qusai; Irimpen, Anand; Samson, Rohan; LeJemtel, Thierry

2017-12-27

Fractional flow reserve (FFR) remains underutilized due to practical concerns related to the need for hyperemic agents. These concerns have prompted the study of instantaneous wave-free ratio (iFR), a vasodilator-free index of coronary stenosis. Non-inferior cardiovascular outcomes have been demonstrated in two recent randomized clinic trials. We performed this meta-analysis to provide a necessary update of the diagnostic accuracy of iFR referenced to FFR based on the addition of eight more recent studies and 3727 more lesions. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Central, ProQuest, and Web of Science databases for full text articles published through May 31, 2017 to identify studies addressing the diagnostic accuracy of iFR referenced to FFR≤0.80. The following keywords were used: "instantaneous wave-free ratio" OR "iFR" AND "fractional flow reserve" OR "FFR." In total, 16 studies comprising 5756 lesions were identified. Pooled diagnostic accuracy estimates of iFR versus FFR≤0.80 were: sensitivity, 0.78 (95% CI, 0.76-0.79); specificity, 0.83 (0.81-0.84); positive likelihood ratio, 4.54 (3.85-5.35); negative likelihood ratio, 0.28 (0.24-0.32); diagnostic odds ratio, 17.38 (14.16-21.34); area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.87; and an overall diagnostic accuracy of 0.81 (0.78-0.84). In conclusion, iFR showed excellent agreement with FFR as a resting index of coronary stenosis severity without the undesired effects and cost of hyperemic agents. When considering along with its clinical outcome data and ease of application, the diagnostic accuracy of iFR supports its use as a suitable alternative to FFR for physiology-guided revascularization of moderate coronary stenoses. We performed a meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of iFR referenced to FFR. iFR showed excellent agreement with FFR as a resting index of coronary stenosis severity without the undesired effects and cost of hyperemic agents. This supports its use as a suitable alternative to FFR for physiology-guided revascularization of moderate coronary stenoses. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Accuracy of diagnostic tests to detect asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy.

PubMed

Mignini, Luciano; Carroli, Guillermo; Abalos, Edgardo; Widmer, Mariana; Amigot, Susana; Nardin, Juan Manuel; Giordano, Daniel; Merialdi, Mario; Arciero, Graciela; Del Carmen Hourquescos, Maria

2009-02-01

A dipslide is a plastic paddle coated with agar that is attached to a plastic cap that screws onto a sterile plastic vial. Our objective was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of the dipslide culture technique to detect asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy and to evaluate the accuracy of nitrate and leucocyte esterase dipslides for screening. This was an ancillary study within a trial comparing single-day with 7-day therapy in treating asymptomatic bacteriuria. Clean-catch midstream samples were collected from pregnant women seeking routine care. Positive and negative likelihood ratios and sensitivity and specificity for the culture-based dipslide to detect and chemical dipsticks (nitrites, leukocyte esterase, or both) to screen were estimated using traditional urine culture as the "gold standard." : A total of 3,048 eligible pregnant women were screened. The prevalence of asymptomatic bacteriuria was 15%, with Escherichia coli the most prevalent organism. The likelihood ratio for detecting asymptomatic bacteriuria with a positive dipslide test was 225 (95% confidence interval [CI] 113-449), increasing the probability of asymptomatic bacteriuria to 98%; the likelihood ratio for a negative dipslide test was 0.02 (95% CI 0.01-0.05), reducing the probability of bacteriuria to less than 1%. The positive likelihood ratio of leukocyte esterase and nitrite dipsticks (when both or either one was positive) was 6.95 (95% CI 5.80-8.33), increasing the probability of bacteriuria to only 54%; the negative likelihood ratio was 0.50 (95% CI 0.45-0.57), reducing the probability to 8%. A pregnant woman with a positive dipslide test is very likely to have a definitive diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria, whereas a negative result effectively rules out the presence of bacteriuria. Dipsticks that measure nitrites and leukocyte esterase have low sensitivity for use in screening for asymptomatic bacteriuria during gestation. ISRCTN, isrctn.org, 1196608 II.

New algorithms and methods to estimate maximum-likelihood phylogenies: assessing the performance of PhyML 3.0.

PubMed

Guindon, Stéphane; Dufayard, Jean-François; Lefort, Vincent; Anisimova, Maria; Hordijk, Wim; Gascuel, Olivier

2010-05-01

PhyML is a phylogeny software based on the maximum-likelihood principle. Early PhyML versions used a fast algorithm performing nearest neighbor interchanges to improve a reasonable starting tree topology. Since the original publication (Guindon S., Gascuel O. 2003. A simple, fast and accurate algorithm to estimate large phylogenies by maximum likelihood. Syst. Biol. 52:696-704), PhyML has been widely used (>2500 citations in ISI Web of Science) because of its simplicity and a fair compromise between accuracy and speed. In the meantime, research around PhyML has continued, and this article describes the new algorithms and methods implemented in the program. First, we introduce a new algorithm to search the tree space with user-defined intensity using subtree pruning and regrafting topological moves. The parsimony criterion is used here to filter out the least promising topology modifications with respect to the likelihood function. The analysis of a large collection of real nucleotide and amino acid data sets of various sizes demonstrates the good performance of this method. Second, we describe a new test to assess the support of the data for internal branches of a phylogeny. This approach extends the recently proposed approximate likelihood-ratio test and relies on a nonparametric, Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like procedure. A detailed analysis of real alignments sheds light on the links between this new approach and the more classical nonparametric bootstrap method. Overall, our tests show that the last version (3.0) of PhyML is fast, accurate, stable, and ready to use. A Web server and binary files are available from http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/phyml/.

A motor speech assessment for children with severe speech disorders: reliability and validity evidence.

PubMed

Strand, Edythe A; McCauley, Rebecca J; Weigand, Stephen D; Stoeckel, Ruth E; Baas, Becky S

2013-04-01

In this article, the authors report reliability and validity evidence for the Dynamic Evaluation of Motor Speech Skill (DEMSS), a new test that uses dynamic assessment to aid in the differential diagnosis of childhood apraxia of speech (CAS). Participants were 81 children between 36 and 79 months of age who were referred to the Mayo Clinic for diagnosis of speech sound disorders. Children were given the DEMSS and a standard speech and language test battery as part of routine evaluations. Subsequently, intrajudge, interjudge, and test-retest reliability were evaluated for a subset of participants. Construct validity was explored for all 81 participants through the use of agglomerative cluster analysis, sensitivity measures, and likelihood ratios. The mean percentage of agreement for 171 judgments was 89% for test-retest reliability, 89% for intrajudge reliability, and 91% for interjudge reliability. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis showed that total DEMSS scores largely differentiated clusters of children with CAS vs. mild CAS vs. other speech disorders. Positive and negative likelihood ratios and measures of sensitivity and specificity suggested that the DEMSS does not overdiagnose CAS but sometimes fails to identify children with CAS. The value of the DEMSS in differential diagnosis of severe speech impairments was supported on the basis of evidence of reliability and validity.

Evaluation of advanced multiplex short tandem repeat systems in pairwise kinship analysis.

PubMed

Tamura, Tomonori; Osawa, Motoki; Ochiai, Eriko; Suzuki, Takanori; Nakamura, Takashi

2015-09-01

The AmpFLSTR Identifiler Kit, comprising 15 autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) loci, is commonly employed in forensic practice for calculating match probabilities and parentage testing. The conventional system exhibits insufficient estimation for kinship analysis such as sibship testing because of shortness of examined loci. This study evaluated the power of the PowerPlex Fusion System, GlobalFiler Kit, and PowerPlex 21 System, which comprise more than 20 autosomal STR loci, to estimate pairwise blood relatedness (i.e., parent-child, full siblings, second-degree relatives, and first cousins). The genotypes of all 24 STR loci in 10,000 putative pedigrees were constructed by simulation. The likelihood ratio for each locus was calculated from joint probabilities for relatives and non-relatives. The combined likelihood ratio was calculated according to the product rule. The addition of STR loci improved separation between relatives and non-relatives. However, these systems were less effectively extended to the inference for first cousins. In conclusion, these advanced systems will be useful in forensic personal identification, especially in the evaluation of full siblings and second-degree relatives. Moreover, the additional loci may give rise to two major issues of more frequent mutational events and several pairs of linked loci on the same chromosome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A close examination of double filtering with fold change and t test in microarray analysis

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Many researchers use the double filtering procedure with fold change and t test to identify differentially expressed genes, in the hope that the double filtering will provide extra confidence in the results. Due to its simplicity, the double filtering procedure has been popular with applied researchers despite the development of more sophisticated methods. Results This paper, for the first time to our knowledge, provides theoretical insight on the drawback of the double filtering procedure. We show that fold change assumes all genes to have a common variance while t statistic assumes gene-specific variances. The two statistics are based on contradicting assumptions. Under the assumption that gene variances arise from a mixture of a common variance and gene-specific variances, we develop the theoretically most powerful likelihood ratio test statistic. We further demonstrate that the posterior inference based on a Bayesian mixture model and the widely used significance analysis of microarrays (SAM) statistic are better approximations to the likelihood ratio test than the double filtering procedure. Conclusion We demonstrate through hypothesis testing theory, simulation studies and real data examples, that well constructed shrinkage testing methods, which can be united under the mixture gene variance assumption, can considerably outperform the double filtering procedure. PMID:19995439

The Relation Among the Likelihood Ratio-, Wald-, and Lagrange Multiplier Tests and Their Applicability to Small Samples,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-04-01

S. (1979), "Conflict Among Criteria for Testing Hypothesis: Extension and Comments," Econometrica, 47, 203-207 Breusch , T. S. and Pagan , A. R. (1980...Savin, N. E. (1977), "Conflict Among Criteria for Testing Hypothesis in the Multivariate Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, 45, 1263-1278 Breusch , T...VNCLASSIFIED RAND//-6756NL U l~ I- THE RELATION AMONG THE LIKELIHOOD RATIO-, WALD-, AND LAGRANGE MULTIPLIER TESTS AND THEIR APPLICABILITY TO SMALL SAMPLES

A Likelihood Ratio Test Regarding Two Nested But Oblique Order Restricted Hypotheses.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-01

Report #90 DIC JAN 2 411 ISMO. H American Mathematical Society 1979 subject classification Primary 62F03 Secondary 62E15 Key words and phrases: Order...model. A likelihood ratio test for these two restrictions is studied . Asa *a .on . r 373 RA&J *iii - ,sa~m muwod [] v~ -F: :.v"’. os "- 1...investigation was stimulated partly by a problem encountered in psychiatric research. [Winokur et al., 1971] studied data on psychiatric illnesses afflicting

Screening for Depression in Medical Settings with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ): A Diagnostic Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Richards, David; Brealey, Stephen; Hewitt, Catherine

2007-01-01

Objective To summarize the psychometric properties of the PHQ2 and PHQ9 as screening instruments for depression. Interventions We identified 17 validation studies conducted in primary care; medical outpatients; and specialist medical services (cardiology, gynecology, stroke, dermatology, head injury, and otolaryngology). Electronic databases from 1994 to February 2007 (MEDLINE, PsycLIT, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane registers) plus study reference lists have been used for this study. Translations included US English, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, German and Arabic). Summary sensitivity, specificity, likelihood and diagnostic odds ratios (OR) against a gold standard (DSM-IV) Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) were calculated for each study. We used random effects bivariate meta-analysis at recommended cut points to produce summary receiver–operator characteristic (sROC) curves. We explored heterogeneity with metaregression. Measurements and Main Results Fourteen studies (5,026 participants) validated the PHQ9 against MDD: sensitivity = 0.80 (95% CI 0.71–0.87); specificity = 0.92 (95% CI 0.88–0.95); positive likelihood ratio = 10.12 (95% CI 6.52–15.67); negative likelihood ratio = 0.22 (0.15 to 0.32). There was substantial heterogeneity (Diagnostic Odds Ratio heterogeneity I2 = 82%), which was not explained by study setting (primary care versus general hospital); method of scoring (cutoff ≥ 10 versus “diagnostic algorithm”); or study quality (blinded versus unblinded). The diagnostic validity of the PHQ2 was only validated in 3 studies and showed wide variability in sensitivity. Conclusions The PHQ9 is acceptable, and as good as longer clinician-administered instruments in a range of settings, countries, and populations. More research is needed to validate the PHQ2 to see if its diagnostic properties approach those of the PHQ9. PMID:17874169

Pooling-analysis for diagnostic and prognostic value of MiRNA-100 in various cancers.

PubMed

Dou, Zhe; Lin, Shuai; Dai, Cong; Lu, Ye; Tian, Tian; Wang, Meng; Liu, Xinghan; Zheng, Yi; Xu, Peng; Li, Shanli; Sheng, Qianwen; Deng, Yujiao; Dai, Zhijun

2017-09-22

Many studies manifested miRNA-100 was deregulated in various cancers, which indicated that miRNA-100 might be a potential biomarker of cancer diagnosis and prognosis. However, the role of miRNA-100 was still uncertain. We searched for qualified studies using PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane library and CNKI databases. The diagnostic effect was evaluated by the pooled sensitivity, specificity, and other indexes. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall survival (OS) were calculated to assess the prognostic value. This meta-analysis included 7 and 19 studies about diagnosis and prognosis, respectively. The results of pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were 0.75 (95%CI: 0.71-0.78), 0.74 (95%CI: 0.69-0.78), 2.61 (95%CI: 1.81-3.76), 0.33 (95%CI: 0.24-0.45), 8.46 (95%CI: 4.85-14.77), respectively. And, the area under SROC curve (AUC) was 0.8141. We also found that lower expression of miRNA-100 in cancer tissues could significantly predict poorer prognosis in overall cancer (HR = 0.59, 95%CI: 0.39-0.90), especially in genital system tumors (HR = 0.42, 95%CI: 0.27-0.66, P = 0.431), bladder cancer (HR = 0.21, 95%CI: 0.06-0.73, P = 0.143) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (HR = 0.26, 95%CI: 0.13-0.52, P = 0.164). Our studies concluded that miRNA-100 has a certain value in diagnosis and it may indicate a poor prognosis of cancers.

Long working hours and use of psychotropic medicine: a follow-up study with register linkage.

PubMed

Hannerz, Harald; Albertsen, Karen

2016-03-01

This study aimed to investigate the possibility of a prospective association between long working hours and use of psychotropic medicine. Survey data drawn from random samples of the general working population of Denmark in the time period 1995-2010 were linked to national registers covering all inhabitants. The participants were followed for first occurrence of redeemed prescriptions for psychotropic medicine. The primary analysis included 25,959 observations (19,259 persons) and yielded a total of 2914 new cases of psychotropic drug use in 99,018 person-years at risk. Poisson regression was used to model incidence rates of redeemed prescriptions for psychotropic medicine as a function of working hours (32-40, 41-48, >48 hours/week). The analysis was controlled for gender, age, sample, shift work, and socioeconomic status. A likelihood ratio test was used to test the null hypothesis, which stated that the incidence rates were independent of weekly working hours. The likelihood ratio test did not reject the null hypothesis (P=0.085). The rate ratio (RR) was 1.04 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.94-1.15] for the contrast 41-48 versus 32-40 work hours/week and 1.15 (95% CI 1.02-1.30) for >48 versus 32-40 hours/week. None of the rate ratios that were estimated in the present study were statistically significant after adjustment for multiple testing. However, stratified analyses, in which 30 RR were estimated, generated the hypothesis that overtime work (>48 hours/week) might be associated with an increased risk among night or shift workers (RR=1.51, 95% CI 1.15-1.98). The present study did not find a statistically significant association between long working hours and incidence of psychotropic drug usage among Danish employees.

Using artificial intelligence to predict the risk for posterior capsule opacification after phacoemulsification.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Seyed-Farzad; Sabbaghi, Mostafa; Z-Mehrjardi, Hadi; Hashemi, Hassan; Alizadeh, Somayeh; Majdi, Mercede; Taee, Farough

2012-03-01

To apply artificial intelligence models to predict the occurrence of posterior capsule opacification (PCO) after phacoemulsification. Farabi Eye Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Clinical-based cross-sectional study. The posterior capsule status of eyes operated on for age-related cataract and the need for laser capsulotomy were determined. After a literature review, data polishing, and expert consultation, 10 input variables were selected. The QUEST algorithm was used to develop a decision tree. Three back-propagation artificial neural networks were constructed with 4, 20, and 40 neurons in 2 hidden layers and trained with the same transfer functions (log-sigmoid and linear transfer) and training protocol with randomly selected eyes. They were then tested on the remaining eyes and the networks compared for their performance. Performance indices were used to compare resultant models with the results of logistic regression analysis. The models were trained using 282 randomly selected eyes and then tested using 70 eyes. Laser capsulotomy for clinically significant PCO was indicated or had been performed 2 years postoperatively in 40 eyes. A sample decision tree was produced with accuracy of 50% (likelihood ratio 0.8). The best artificial neural network, which showed 87% accuracy and a positive likelihood ratio of 8, was achieved with 40 neurons. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve was 0.71. In comparison, logistic regression reached accuracy of 80%; however, the likelihood ratio was not measurable because the sensitivity was zero. A prototype artificial neural network was developed that predicted posterior capsule status (requiring capsulotomy) with reasonable accuracy. No author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2012 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Further Evaluation of Covariate Analysis using Empirical Bayes Estimates in Population Pharmacokinetics: the Perception of Shrinkage and Likelihood Ratio Test.

PubMed

Xu, Xu Steven; Yuan, Min; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Yan; Xu, Jinfeng; Pinheiro, Jose

2017-01-01

Covariate analysis based on population pharmacokinetics (PPK) is used to identify clinically relevant factors. The likelihood ratio test (LRT) based on nonlinear mixed effect model fits is currently recommended for covariate identification, whereas individual empirical Bayesian estimates (EBEs) are considered unreliable due to the presence of shrinkage. The objectives of this research were to investigate the type I error for LRT and EBE approaches, to confirm the similarity of power between the LRT and EBE approaches from a previous report and to explore the influence of shrinkage on LRT and EBE inferences. Using an oral one-compartment PK model with a single covariate impacting on clearance, we conducted a wide range of simulations according to a two-way factorial design. The results revealed that the EBE-based regression not only provided almost identical power for detecting a covariate effect, but also controlled the false positive rate better than the LRT approach. Shrinkage of EBEs is likely not the root cause for decrease in power or inflated false positive rate although the size of the covariate effect tends to be underestimated at high shrinkage. In summary, contrary to the current recommendations, EBEs may be a better choice for statistical tests in PPK covariate analysis compared to LRT. We proposed a three-step covariate modeling approach for population PK analysis to utilize the advantages of EBEs while overcoming their shortcomings, which allows not only markedly reducing the run time for population PK analysis, but also providing more accurate covariate tests.

Diagnostic performance of coronary computed tomography angiography versus exercise electrocardiography for coronary artery disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yin, Xinxin; Wang, Jiali; Zheng, Wen; Ma, Jingjing; Hao, Panpan; Chen, Yuguo

2016-07-01

Both coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and exercise electrocardiography (ExECG) are non-invasive testing methods for the evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, there was controversy on the diagnostic performance of these methods due to the limited data in each single study. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to address these issues. We searched PubMed and Embase databases up to May 22, 2015. Two authors identified eligible studies, extracted data and accessed quality. Pooled estimation of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), summary receiver-operating characteristic curve (SROC) and the area under curve (AUC) of CCTA and ExECG for the diagnosis of CAD were calculated using Stata, Meta-Disc and Review Manager statistical software. Seven articles were included. Pooled sensitivity of CCTA and ExECG were 0.98 [95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.95-0.99] and 0.66 (95% CIs: 0.59-0.72); pooled specificity of CCTA and ExECG were 0.84 (95% CIs: 0.81-0.87) and 0.75 (95% CIs: 0.71-0.79); pooled DOR of CCTA and ExECG were 110.24 (95% CIs: 35.07-346.55) and 6.28 (95% CIs: 2.06-19.13); and AUC of CCTA and ExECG were 0.9950±0.0046 and 0.7727±0.0638, respectively. There is no heterogeneity caused by threshold effect in CCTA or ExECG analysis. The Deeks' test showed no potential publication bias (P=0.17). CCTA has better diagnostic performance than ExECG in the evaluation of CAD, which can provide a better solution for the clinical problem of the diagnosis for CAD.

Diagnostic value of using 18F-FDG PET and PET/CT in immunocompetent patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zou, Yaru; Tong, Jianjing; Leng, Haiyan; Jiang, Jingwei; Pan, Meng; Chen, Zi

2017-06-20

18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and PET/CT have become two of the most powerful tools for malignant lymphoma exploration, but their diagnostic role in primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) is still disputed. The purpose of our study is to identify the usefulness of 18F-FDG PET and PET/CT for detecting PCNSL. A total of 129 patients, obtained from eight eligible studies, were included for this systematic review and meta-analysis. The performance of 18F-FDG PET and PET/CT for diagnosing PCNSL were as follows: the pooled sensitivity was 0.88 (95% CI: 0.80-0.94), specificity was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.73-0.94), positive likelihood ratio (PLR) was 3.99 (95% CI: 2.31-6.90), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was 0.11 (95% CI: 0.04-0.32), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was 33.40 (95% CI: 10.40-107.3). In addition, the area under the curve (AUC) and Q index were 0.9192 and 0.8525, respectively. PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Library were systematically searched for potential publications (last updated on July 16th, 2016). Reference lists of included articles were also checked. Original articles that reported data on patients who were suspected of having PCNSL were considered suitable for inclusion. The sensitivities and specificities of 18F-FDG PET and PET/CT in each study were evaluated. The Stata software and Meta-Disc software were employed in the process of data analysis. 18F-FDG PET and PET/CT showed considerable accuracy in identifying PCNSL in immunocompetent patients and could be a valuable radiological diagnostic tool for PCNSL.

Diagnostic performance of confocal laser endomicroscopy for optical diagnosis of gastric intestinal metaplasia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

He, Xing-Kang; Liu, Dan; Sun, Lei-Min

2016-09-05

Gastric intestinal metaplasia (IM) is generally considered as a precancerous condition, a related risk factor for intestinal-type gastric cancer. However, an accurate endoscopic diagnosis of IM is a clinical challenge. Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy (CLE) is a newly technique that can provide real-time magnified images and visualize tissues at cellular or subcellular levels. The aim of this study is to clarify the diagnostic value of CLE in detection of IM in patients at high risk of gastric cancer. Systematic literature searches up to April 2015 in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library databases were conducted by two reviewers independently. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool was applied to assess study quality and to reduce potential bias. A meta-analysis using Meta-Disc (version 1.4) and STATA software (version 13) was performed. A total of four studies enrolled 218 patients and 579 lesions were included in this meta-analysis. On per-lesion basis, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of CLE were 0.97(95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-0.98) and 0.94 (95 % CI = 0.91-0.97) respectively. The pooled positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) were 15.20 (95 % CI = 9.46-24.41) and 0.04 (95 % CI = 0.02-0.07) respectively. The pooled diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was 479.59 (95 % CI = 205.64-1118.51) and summary receiver operating curve (SROC) area under the curve was 0.9884. There was no statistical significance of publication bias. CLE is a promising endoscopic tool in the detection of IM with the relatively high diagnostic value in patients at high risk of gastric cancer.

Utility and Safety of Endoscopic Ultrasound With Bronchoscope-Guided Fine-Needle Aspiration in Mediastinal Lymph Node Sampling: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Dhooria, Sahajal; Aggarwal, Ashutosh N; Gupta, Dheeraj; Behera, Digambar; Agarwal, Ritesh

2015-07-01

The use of endoscopic ultrasound with bronchoscope-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-B-FNA) has been described in the evaluation of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. Herein, we conduct a meta-analysis to estimate the overall diagnostic yield and safety of EUS-B-FNA combined with endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA), in the diagnosis of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The PubMed and EmBase databases were searched for studies reporting the outcomes of EUS-B-FNA in diagnosis of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The study quality was assessed using the QualSyst tool. The yield of EBUS-TBNA alone and the combined procedure (EBUS-TBNA and EUS-B-FNA) were analyzed by calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each study, and pooling the study results using a random effects model. Heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed for individual outcomes. The additional diagnostic gain of EUS-B-FNA over EBUS-TBNA was calculated using proportion meta-analysis. Our search yielded 10 studies (1,080 subjects with mediastinal lymphadenopathy). The sensitivity of the combined procedure was significantly higher than EBUS-TBNA alone (91% vs 80%, P = .004), in staging of lung cancer (4 studies, 465 subjects). The additional diagnostic gain of EUS-B-FNA over EBUS-TBNA was 7.6% in the diagnosis of mediastinal adenopathy. No serious complication of EUS-B-FNA procedure was reported. Clinical and statistical heterogeneity was present without any evidence of publication bias. Combining EBUS-TBNA and EUS-B-FNA is an effective and safe method, superior to EBUS-TBNA alone, in the diagnosis of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. Good quality randomized controlled trials are required to confirm the results of this systematic review. Copyright © 2015 by Daedalus Enterprises.

A meta-analysis of use of Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System Version 2 (PI-RADS V2) with multiparametric MR imaging for the detection of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Zhang, Li; Tang, Min; Chen, Sipan; Lei, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Xiaoling; Huan, Yi

2017-12-01

This meta-analysis was undertaken to review the diagnostic accuracy of PI-RADS V2 for prostate cancer (PCa) detection with multiparametric MR (mp-MR). A comprehensive literature search of electronic databases was performed by two observers independently. Inclusion criteria were original research using the PI-RADS V2 system in reporting prostate MRI. The methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Data necessary to complete 2 × 2 contingency tables were obtained from the included studies. Thirteen studies (2,049 patients) were analysed. This is an initial meta-analysis of PI-RADs V2 and the overall diagnostic accuracy in diagnosing PCa was as follows: pooled sensitivity, 0.85 (0.78-0.91); pooled specificity, 0.71 (0.60-0.80); pooled positive likelihood ratio (LR+), 2.92 (2.09-4.09); pooled negative likelihood ratio (LR-), 0.21 (0.14-0.31); pooled diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), 14.08 (7.93-25.01), respectively. Positive predictive values ranged from 0.54 to 0.97 and negative predictive values ranged from 0.26 to 0.92. Currently available evidence indicates that PI-RADS V2 appears to have good diagnostic accuracy in patients with PCa lesions with high sensitivity and moderate specificity. However, no recommendation regarding the best threshold can be provided because of heterogeneity. • PI-RADS V2 shows good diagnostic accuracy for PCa detection. • Initially pooled specificity of PI-RADS v2 remains moderate. • PCa detection is increased by experienced radiologists. • There is currently a high heterogeneity in prostate diagnostics with MRI.

Novel CPR system that predicts return of spontaneous circulation from amplitude spectral area before electric shock in ventricular fibrillation.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Yoshihide; Amino, Mari; Inokuchi, Sadaki; Hayashi, Satoshi; Wakabayashi, Tsutomu; Noda, Tatsuya

2017-04-01

Amplitude spectral area (AMSA), an index for analysing ventricular fibrillation (VF) waveforms, is thought to predict the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) after electric shocks, but its validity is unconfirmed. We developed an equation to predict ROSC, where the change in AMSA (ΔAMSA) is added to AMSA measured immediately before the first shock (AMSA1). We examine the validity of this equation by comparing it with the conventional AMSA1-only equation. We retrospectively investigated 285 VF patients given prehospital electric shocks by emergency medical services. ΔAMSA was calculated by subtracting AMSA1 from last AMSA immediately before the last prehospital electric shock. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed using post-shock ROSC as a dependent variable. Analysis data were subjected to receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, goodness-of-fit testing using a likelihood ratio test, and the bootstrap method. AMSA1 (odds ratio (OR) 1.151, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.086-1.220) and ΔAMSA (OR 1.289, 95% CI 1.156-1.438) were independent factors influencing ROSC induction by electric shock. Area under the curve (AUC) for predicting ROSC was 0.851 for AMSA1-only and 0.891 for AMSA1+ΔAMSA. Compared with the AMSA1-only equation, the AMSA1+ΔAMSA equation had significantly better goodness-of-fit (likelihood ratio test P<0.001) and showed good fit in the bootstrap method. Post-shock ROSC was accurately predicted by adding ΔAMSA to AMSA1. AMSA-based ROSC prediction enables application of electric shock to only those patients with high probability of ROSC, instead of interrupting chest compressions and delivering unnecessary shocks to patients with low probability of ROSC. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pretransplantation soluble CD30 level as a predictor of acute rejection in kidney transplantation: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Yile; Tai, Qiang; Hong, Shaodong; Kong, Yuan; Shang, Yushu; Liang, Wenhua; Guo, Zhiyong; He, Xiaoshun

2012-11-15

The question of whether high pretransplantation soluble CD30 (sCD30) level can be a predictor of kidney transplant acute rejection (AR) is under debate. Herein, we performed a meta-analysis on the predictive efficacy of sCD30 for AR in renal transplantation. PubMed (1966-2012), EMBASE (1988-2012), and Web of Science (1986-2012) databases were searched for studies concerning the predictive efficacy of sCD30 for AR after kidney transplantation. After a careful review of eligible studies, sensitivity, specificity, and other measures of the accuracy of sCD30 were pooled. A summary receiver operating characteristic curve was used to represent the overall test performance. Twelve studies enrolling 2507 patients met the inclusion criteria. The pooled estimates for pretransplantation sCD30 in prediction of allograft rejection risk were poor, with a sensitivity of 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.66-0.74), a specificity of 0.48 (95% CI, 0.46-0.50), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.35 (95% CI, 1.20-1.53), a negative likelihood ratio of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.55-0.84), and a diagnostic odds ratio of 2.07 (95% CI, 1.54-2.80). The area under curve of the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.60, indicating poor overall accuracy of the serum sCD30 level in the prediction of patients at risk for AR. The results of the meta-analysis show that the accuracy of pretransplantation sCD30 for predicting posttransplantation AR was poor. Prospective studies are needed to clarify the usefulness of this test for identifying risks of AR in transplant recipients.

Order-restricted inference for means with missing values.

PubMed

Wang, Heng; Zhong, Ping-Shou

2017-09-01

Missing values appear very often in many applications, but the problem of missing values has not received much attention in testing order-restricted alternatives. Under the missing at random (MAR) assumption, we impute the missing values nonparametrically using kernel regression. For data with imputation, the classical likelihood ratio test designed for testing the order-restricted means is no longer applicable since the likelihood does not exist. This article proposes a novel method for constructing test statistics for assessing means with an increasing order or a decreasing order based on jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL) ratio. It is shown that the JEL ratio statistic evaluated under the null hypothesis converges to a chi-bar-square distribution, whose weights depend on missing probabilities and nonparametric imputation. Simulation study shows that the proposed test performs well under various missing scenarios and is robust for normally and nonnormally distributed data. The proposed method is applied to an Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative data set for finding a biomarker for the diagnosis of the Alzheimer's disease. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Role of transvaginal sonography and magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis of uterine adenomyosis.

PubMed

Bazot, Marc; Daraï, Emile

2018-03-01

The aim of the present review, conducted according to PRISMA statement recommendations, was to evaluate the contribution of transvaginal sonography (TVS) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to diagnose adenomyosis. Although there is a lack of consensus on adenomyosis classification, three subtypes are described, internal, external adenomyosis, and adenomyomas. Using TVS, whatever the subtype, pooled sensitivities, pooled specificities, and pooled positive likelihood ratios are 0.72-0.82, 0.85-0.81, and 4.67-3.7, respectively, but with a high heterogeneity between the studies. MRI has a pooled sensitivity of 0.77, specificity of 0.89, positive likelihood ratio of 6.5, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 for all subtypes. Our results suggest that MRI is more useful than TVS in the diagnosis of adenomyosis. Further studies are required to determine the performance of direct signs (cystic component) and indirect signs (characteristics of junctional zone) to avoid misdiagnosis of adenomyosis. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A meta-analysis of confocal laser endomicroscopy for the detection of neoplasia in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Xiong, Yi-Quan; Ma, Shu-Juan; Zhou, Jun-Hua; Zhong, Xue-Shan; Chen, Qing

2016-06-01

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is considered the most important risk factor for development of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Confocal laser endomicroscopy (CLE) is a recently developed technique used to diagnose neoplasia in BE. This meta-analysis was performed to assess the accuracy of CLE for diagnosis of neoplasia in BE. We searched EMBASE, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science to identify relevant studies for all articles published up to June 27, 2015 in English. The quality of included studies was assessed using QUADAS-2. Per-patient and per-lesion pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. In total, 14 studies were included in the final analysis, covering 789 patients with 4047 lesions. Seven studies were included in the per-patient analysis. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were 89% (95% CI: 0.82-0.94) and 83% (95% CI: 0.78-0.86), respectively. Ten studies were included in the per-lesion analysis. Compared with the PP analysis, the corresponding pooled sensitivity declined to 77% (95% CI: 0.73-0.81) and specificity increased to 89% (95% CI: 0.87-0.90). Subgroup analysis showed that probe-based CLE (pCLE) was superior to endoscope-based CLE (eCLE) in pooled specificity [91.4% (95% CI: 89.7-92.9) vs 86.1% (95% CI: 84.3-87.8)] and AUC for the sROC (0.885 vs 0.762). Confocal laser endomicroscopy is a valid method to accurately differentiate neoplasms from non-neoplasms in BE. It can be applied to BE surveillance and early diagnosis of esophageal adenocarcinoma. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Training loads and injury risk in Australian football-differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk.

PubMed

Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

2017-08-01

(1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2-9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14-35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R 2 ). The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18-24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R 2 =0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R 2 =0.76-0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98-2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Training loads and injury risk in Australian football—differing acute: chronic workload ratios influence match injury risk

PubMed Central

Carey, David L; Blanch, Peter; Ong, Kok-Leong; Crossley, Kay M; Crow, Justin; Morris, Meg E

2017-01-01

Aims (1) To investigate whether a daily acute:chronic workload ratio informs injury risk in Australian football players; (2) to identify which combination of workload variable, acute and chronic time window best explains injury likelihood. Methods Workload and injury data were collected from 53 athletes over 2 seasons in a professional Australian football club. Acute:chronic workload ratios were calculated daily for each athlete, and modelled against non-contact injury likelihood using a quadratic relationship. 6 workload variables, 8 acute time windows (2–9 days) and 7 chronic time windows (14–35 days) were considered (336 combinations). Each parameter combination was compared for injury likelihood fit (using R2). Results The ratio of moderate speed running workload (18–24 km/h) in the previous 3 days (acute time window) compared with the previous 21 days (chronic time window) best explained the injury likelihood in matches (R2=0.79) and in the immediate 2 or 5 days following matches (R2=0.76–0.82). The 3:21 acute:chronic workload ratio discriminated between high-risk and low-risk athletes (relative risk=1.98–2.43). Using the previous 6 days to calculate the acute workload time window yielded similar results. The choice of acute time window significantly influenced model performance and appeared to reflect the competition and training schedule. Conclusions Daily workload ratios can inform injury risk in Australian football. Clinicians and conditioning coaches should consider the sport-specific schedule of competition and training when choosing acute and chronic time windows. For Australian football, the ratio of moderate speed running in a 3-day or 6-day acute time window and a 21-day chronic time window best explained injury risk. PMID:27789430

Survivorship analysis when cure is a possibility: a Monte Carlo study.

PubMed

Goldman, A I

1984-01-01

Parametric survivorship analyses of clinical trials commonly involves the assumption of a hazard function constant with time. When the empirical curve obviously levels off, one can modify the hazard function model by use of a Gompertz or Weibull distribution with hazard decreasing over time. Some cancer treatments are thought to cure some patients within a short time of initiation. Then, instead of all patients having the same hazard, decreasing over time, a biologically more appropriate model assumes that an unknown proportion (1 - pi) have constant high risk whereas the remaining proportion (pi) have essentially no risk. This paper discusses the maximum likelihood estimation of pi and the power curves of the likelihood ratio test. Monte Carlo studies provide results for a variety of simulated trials; empirical data illustrate the methods.

Speckle attenuation by adaptive singular value shrinking with generalized likelihood matching in optical coherence tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huaiguang; Fu, Shujun; Wang, Hong; Lv, Hongli; Zhang, Caiming

2018-03-01

As a high-resolution imaging mode of biological tissues and materials, optical coherence tomography (OCT) is widely used in medical diagnosis and analysis. However, OCT images are often degraded by annoying speckle noise inherent in its imaging process. Employing the bilateral sparse representation an adaptive singular value shrinking method is proposed for its highly sparse approximation of image data. Adopting the generalized likelihood ratio as similarity criterion for block matching and an adaptive feature-oriented backward projection strategy, the proposed algorithm can restore better underlying layered structures and details of the OCT image with effective speckle attenuation. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves a state-of-the-art despeckling performance in terms of both quantitative measurement and visual interpretation.

The Determinants of Place of Death: An Evidence-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

Costa, V

2014-01-01

Background According to a conceptual model described in this analysis, place of death is determined by an interplay of factors associated with the illness, the individual, and the environment. Objectives Our objective was to evaluate the determinants of place of death for adult patients who have been diagnosed with an advanced, life-limiting condition and are not expected to stabilize or improve. Data Sources A literature search was performed using Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid Embase, EBSCO Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and EBM Reviews, for studies published from January 1, 2004, to September 24, 2013. Review Methods Different places of death are considered in this analysis—home, nursing home, inpatient hospice, and inpatient palliative care unit, compared with hospital. We selected factors to evaluate from a list of possible predictors—i.e., determinants—of death. We extracted the adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of each determinant, performed a meta-analysis if appropriate, and conducted a stratified analysis if substantial heterogeneity was observed. Results From a literature search yielding 5,899 citations, we included 2 systematic reviews and 29 observational studies. Factors that increased the likelihood of home death included multidisciplinary home palliative care, patient preference, having an informal caregiver, and the caregiver's ability to cope. Factors increasing the likelihood of a nursing home death included the availability of palliative care in the nursing home and the existence of advance directives. A cancer diagnosis and the involvement of home care services increased the likelihood of dying in an inpatient palliative care unit. A cancer diagnosis and a longer time between referral to palliative care and death increased the likelihood of inpatient hospice death. The quality of the evidence was considered low. Limitations Our results are based on those of retrospective observational studies. Conclusions The results obtained were consistent with previously published systematic reviews. The analysis identified several factors that are associated with place of death. PMID:26351550

LIKELIHOOD RATIO TESTS OF HYPOTHESES ON MULTIVARIATE POPULATIONS, VOLUME II, TEST OF HYPOTHESIS--STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE EVALUATION AND INTERPRETATION OF EDUCATIONAL CRITERIA. PART 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

SAW, J.G.

THIS PAPER DEALS WITH SOME TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS FREQUENTLY ENCOUNTERED IN THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIVARIATE DATA. THE TYPE OF HYPOTHESIS CONSIDERED IS THAT WHICH THE STATISTICIAN CAN ANSWER IN THE NEGATIVE OR AFFIRMATIVE. THE DOOLITTLE METHOD MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO EVALUATE THE DETERMINANT OF A MATRIX OF HIGH ORDER, TO SOLVE A MATRIX EQUATION, OR TO…

Instrument for evaluation of sedentary lifestyle in patients with high blood pressure.

PubMed

Lopes, Marcos Venícios de Oliveira; da Silva, Viviane Martins; de Araujo, Thelma Leite; Guedes, Nirla Gomes; Martins, Larissa Castelo Guedes; Teixeira, Iane Ximenes

2015-01-01

this article describes the diagnostic accuracy of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire to identify the nursing diagnosis of sedentary lifestyle. a diagnostic accuracy study was developed with 240 individuals with established high blood pressure. The analysis of diagnostic accuracy was based on measures of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, efficiency, diagnostic odds ratio, Youden index, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. statistical differences between genders were observed for activities of moderate intensity and for total physical activity. Age was negatively correlated with activities of moderate intensity and total physical activity. the analysis of area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for moderate intensity activities, walking, and total physical activity showed that the International Physical Activity Questionnaire present moderate capacity to correctly classify individuals with and without sedentary lifestyle.

Comparison of two weighted integration models for the cueing task: linear and likelihood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimozaki, Steven S.; Eckstein, Miguel P.; Abbey, Craig K.

2003-01-01

In a task in which the observer must detect a signal at two locations, presenting a precue that predicts the location of a signal leads to improved performance with a valid cue (signal location matches the cue), compared to an invalid cue (signal location does not match the cue). The cue validity effect has often been explained with a limited capacity attentional mechanism improving the perceptual quality at the cued location. Alternatively, the cueing effect can also be explained by unlimited capacity models that assume a weighted combination of noisy responses across the two locations. We compare two weighted integration models, a linear model and a sum of weighted likelihoods model based on a Bayesian observer. While qualitatively these models are similar, quantitatively they predict different cue validity effects as the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) increase. To test these models, 3 observers performed in a cued discrimination task of Gaussian targets with an 80% valid precue across a broad range of SNR's. Analysis of a limited capacity attentional switching model was also included and rejected. The sum of weighted likelihoods model best described the psychophysical results, suggesting that human observers approximate a weighted combination of likelihoods, and not a weighted linear combination.

A Meta-Analysis of the Diagnostic Accuracy of Circular RNAs in Digestive System Malignancy.

PubMed

Chen, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Long; Han, Guoyong; Zuo, Xueliang; Zhang, Yao; Zhu, Qin; Wu, Jindao; Wang, Xuehao

2018-01-01

Circular RNAs (circRNAs), a novel class of noncoding RNAs, have been found to be dysregulated in various cancers. However, the clinical application value of these circRNAs in digestive system cancers remains to be clarified. We aimed to comprehensively explore the potential role of circRNAs as diagnostic indicators in digestive system malignancies. Relevant studies were systematically retrieved from PubMed, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library. The data that were required to complete 2 × 2 contingency tables were obtained from the included studies. Stratified analyses by cancer type, sample size and publication year were performed. Thirteen studies with 2,276 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of circRNAs in the diagnosis of digestive system malignancy were 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.77] and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.72-0.81), respectively. The overall positive likelihood ratio was 3.09 (95% CI: 2.64-3.62), and the overall negative likelihood ratio was 0.37 (95% CI: 0.31-0.44). The pooled diagnostic odds ratio was 8.38 (95% CI: 6.86-10.25), and the overall area under the curve was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.84), indicating good discriminative ability of circRNAs as biomarkers for digestive system malignancy. circRNAs distinguish patients with digestive system cancer from controls with relatively high diagnostic accuracy. circRNAs may be used as potential biomarkers for the diagnosis of digestive system malignancy. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

Plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin: a marker of acute pyelonephritis in children.

PubMed

Kim, Byung Kwan; Yim, Hyung Eun; Yoo, Kee Hwan

2017-03-01

This study was designed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) with procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and white blood cells (WBCs) for predicting acute pyelonephritis (APN) in children with febrile urinary tract infections (UTIs). In total, 138 children with febrile UTIs (APN 59, lower UTI 79) were reviewed retrospectively. Levels of NGAL, PCT, CRP, and WBCs in blood were measured on admission. The diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers was investigated. Independent predictors of APN were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analyses showed good diagnostic profiles of NGAL, PCT, CRP, and WBCs for identifying APN [area under the curve (AUC) 0.893, 0.855, 0.879, and 0.654, respectively]. However, multivariate analysis revealed only plasma NGAL level was an independent predictor of APN (P = 0.006). At the best cutoff values of all examined biomarkers for identifying APN, sensitivity (86 %), specificity (85 %), positive predictive value (81 %), and negative predictive value (89 %) of plasma NGAL levels were the highest. The optimal NGAL cutoff value was 117 ng/ml. The positive likelihood ratio [odds ratio (OR) 5.69, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 3.56-8.78], and negative likelihood ratio (OR 0.16, 95 % CI 0.08-0.29) of plasma NGAL for APN diagnosis also showed it seemed to be more accurate than serum PCT, CRP, and WBCs. Plasma NGAL can be more useful than serum PCT, CRP, and WBC levels for identifying APN in children with febrile UTIs.

Child–Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Peng, Ying; Qi, Xingshun; Guo, Xiaozhong

2016-01-01

Abstract Child–Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child–Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated. Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child–Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child–Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child–Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child–Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child–Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects. Although Child–Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child–Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified. PMID:26937922

Addressing Data Analysis Challenges in Gravitational Wave Searches Using the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerathunga, Thilina Shihan

2017-08-01

Gravitational waves are a fundamental prediction of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity. The first experimental proof of their existence was provided by the Nobel Prize winning discovery by Taylor and Hulse of orbital decay in a binary pulsar system. The first detection of gravitational waves incident on earth from an astrophysical source was announced in 2016 by the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, launching the new era of gravitational wave (GW) astronomy. The signal detected was from the merger of two black holes, which is an example of sources called Compact Binary Coalescences (CBCs). Data analysis strategies used in the search for CBC signals are derivatives of the Maximum-Likelihood (ML) method. The ML method applied to data from a network of geographically distributed GW detectors--called fully coherent network analysis--is currently the best approach for estimating source location and GW polarization waveforms. However, in the case of CBCs, especially for lower mass systems (O(1M solar masses)) such as double neutron star binaries, fully coherent network analysis is computationally expensive. The ML method requires locating the global maximum of the likelihood function over a nine dimensional parameter space, where the computation of the likelihood at each point requires correlations involving O(104) to O(106) samples between the data and the corresponding candidate signal waveform template. Approximations, such as semi-coherent coincidence searches, are currently used to circumvent the computational barrier but incur a concomitant loss in sensitivity. We explored the effectiveness of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a well-known algorithm in the field of swarm intelligence, in addressing the fully coherent network analysis problem. As an example, we used a four-detector network consisting of the two LIGO detectors at Hanford and Livingston, Virgo and Kagra, all having initial LIGO noise power spectral densities, and show that PSO can locate the global maximum with less than 240,000 likelihood evaluations for a component mass range of 1.0 to 10.0 solar masses at a realistic coherent network signal to noise ratio of 9.0. Our results show that PSO can successfully deliver a fully-coherent all-sky search with < (1/10 ) the number of likelihood evaluations needed for a grid-based search. Used as a follow-up step, the savings in the number of likelihood evaluations may also reduce latency in obtaining ML estimates of source parameters in semi-coherent searches.

Uncued Low SNR Detection with Likelihood from Image Multi Bernoulli Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, T.; Holzinger, M.

2016-09-01

Both SSA and SDA necessitate uncued, partially informed detection and orbit determination efforts for small space objects which often produce only low strength electro-optical signatures. General frame to frame detection and tracking of objects includes methods such as moving target indicator, multiple hypothesis testing, direct track-before-detect methods, and random finite set based multiobject tracking. This paper will apply the multi-Bernoilli filter to low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), uncued detection of space objects for space domain awareness applications. The primary novel innovation in this paper is a detailed analysis of the existing state-of-the-art likelihood functions and a likelihood function, based on a binary hypothesis, previously proposed by the authors. The algorithm is tested on electro-optical imagery obtained from a variety of sensors at Georgia Tech, including the GT-SORT 0.5m Raven-class telescope, and a twenty degree field of view high frame rate CMOS sensor. In particular, a data set of an extended pass of the Hitomi Astro-H satellite approximately 3 days after loss of communication and potential break up is examined.

The Chandra Xbootes Survey - IV: Mid-Infrared and Submillimeter Counterparts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Arianna; Mitchell-Wynne, Ketron; Cooray, Asantha R.; Nayyeri, Hooshang

2016-06-01

In this work, we use a Bayesian technique to identify mid-IR and submillimeter counterparts for 3,213 X-ray point sources detected in the Chandra XBoötes Survey so as to characterize the relationship between black hole activity and star formation in the XBoötes region. The Chandra XBoötes Survey is a 5-ks X-ray survey of the 9.3 square degree Boötes Field of the NOAO Deep Wide-Field Survey (NDWFS), a survey imaged from the optical to the near-IR. We use a likelihood ratio analysis on Spitzer-IRAC data taken from The Spitzer Deep, Wide-Field Survey (SDWFS) to determine mid-IR counterparts, and a similar method on Herschel-SPIRE sources detected at 250µm from The Herschel Multi-tiered Extragalactic Survey to determine the submillimeter counterparts. The likelihood ratio analysis (LRA) provides the probability that a(n) IRAC or SPIRE point source is the true counterpart to a Chandra source. The analysis is comprised of three parts: the normalized magnitude distributions of counterparts and background sources, and the radial probability distribution of the separation distance between the IRAC or SPIRE source and the Chandra source. Many Chandra sources have multiple prospective counterparts in each band, so additional analysis is performed to determine the identification reliability of the candidates. Identification reliability values lie between 0 and 1, and sources with identification reliability values ≥0.8 are chosen to be the true counterparts. With these results, we will consider the statistical implications of the sample's redshifts, mid-IR and submillimeter luminosities, and star formation rates.

A likelihood ratio test for evolutionary rate shifts and functional divergence among proteins

PubMed Central

Knudsen, Bjarne; Miyamoto, Michael M.

2001-01-01

Changes in protein function can lead to changes in the selection acting on specific residues. This can often be detected as evolutionary rate changes at the sites in question. A maximum-likelihood method for detecting evolutionary rate shifts at specific protein positions is presented. The method determines significance values of the rate differences to give a sound statistical foundation for the conclusions drawn from the analyses. A statistical test for detecting slowly evolving sites is also described. The methods are applied to a set of Myc proteins for the identification of both conserved sites and those with changing evolutionary rates. Those positions with conserved and changing rates are related to the structures and functions of their proteins. The results are compared with an earlier Bayesian method, thereby highlighting the advantages of the new likelihood ratio tests. PMID:11734650

A diagnostic-ratio approach to measuring beliefs about the leadership abilities of male and female managers.

PubMed

Martell, R F; Desmet, A L

2001-12-01

This study departed from previous research on gender stereotyping in the leadership domain by adopting a more comprehensive view of leadership and using a diagnostic-ratio measurement strategy. One hundred and fifty-one managers (95 men and 56 women) judged the leadership effectiveness of male and female middle managers by providing likelihood ratings for 14 categories of leader behavior. As expected, the likelihood ratings for some leader behaviors were greater for male managers, whereas for other leader behaviors, the likelihood ratings were greater for female managers or were no different. Leadership ratings revealed some evidence of a same-gender bias. Providing explicit verification of managerial success had only a modest effect on gender stereotyping. The merits of adopting a probabilistic approach in examining the perception and treatment of stigmatized groups are discussed.

Identical twins in forensic genetics - Epidemiology and risk based estimation of weight of evidence.

PubMed

Tvedebrink, Torben; Morling, Niels

2015-12-01

The increase in the number of forensic genetic loci used for identification purposes results in infinitesimal random match probabilities. These probabilities are computed under assumptions made for rather simple population genetic models. Often, the forensic expert reports likelihood ratios, where the alternative hypothesis is assumed not to encompass close relatives. However, this approach implies that important factors present in real human populations are discarded. This approach may be very unfavourable to the defendant. In this paper, we discuss some important aspects concerning the closest familial relationship, i.e., identical (monozygotic) twins, when reporting the weight of evidence. This can be done even when the suspect has no knowledge of an identical twin or when official records hold no twin information about the suspect. The derived expressions are not original as several authors previously have published results accounting for close familial relationships. However, we revisit the discussion to increase the awareness among forensic genetic practitioners and include new information on medical and societal factors to assess the risk of not considering a monozygotic twin as the true perpetrator. If accounting for a monozygotic twin in the weight of evidence, it implies that the likelihood ratio is truncated at a maximal value depending on the prevalence of monozygotic twins and the societal efficiency of recognising a monozygotic twin. If a monozygotic twin is considered as an alternative proposition, then data relevant for the Danish society suggests that the threshold of likelihood ratios should approximately be between 150,000 and 2,000,000 in order to take the risk of an unrecognised identical, monozygotic twin into consideration. In other societies, the threshold of the likelihood ratio in crime cases may reach other, often lower, values depending on the recognition of monozygotic twins and the age of the suspect. In general, more strictly kept registries will imply larger thresholds on the likelihood ratio as the monozygotic twin explanation gets less probable. Copyright © 2015 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of microRNA-628 for cancers.

PubMed

Li, Jing-Hua; Sun, Shan-Shan; Fu, Chang-Jin; Zhang, An-Qi; Wang, Chen; Xu, Rong; Xie, Shu-Yang; Wang, Ping-Yu

2018-01-01

Background: Many studies manifested miRNA-628 (miR-628) was deregulated in various cancers, indicating that miR-628 might serve as a novel biomarker of cancer diagnosis and prognosis, but it's role was still uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate the value of miR-628 in various cancers for diagnosis and prognosis, as well as its predictive power in combination biomarkers. Materials and Methods: A literature search was performed using Medline (via PubMed), Embase, Web of Science databases, and Ovid platform up to November 2017. Meta-analysis was performed to provide summative outcomes. Quality assessment of each included study was performed. Results: Twelve articles with 20 studies were included in our meta-analysis, including 8 articles with 15 studies for diagnostic meta-analysis and 4 articles with 5 studies for prognostic meta-analysis. For the diagnostic meta-analysis of miR-628 alone, the overall pooled results for sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) were 0.81 (95% CI: 0.62-0.91), 0.72 (95% CI: 0.48-0.88), 2.90 (95% CI: 1.50-5.40), 0.27 (95% CI: 0.14-0.50), 11.0 (95% CI: 4.00-25.00), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.87), respectively. For the diagnostic meta-analysis of miR-628-related combination biomarkers, the above six parameters were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.92), 0.93 (95% CI: 0.82-0.97), 12.30 (95% CI: 4.70-32.50), 0.12 (95% CI: 0.08-0.19), and 100.00 (95% CI: 28.00-354.00), 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.95), respectively. For the prognostic meta-analysis, patients with lower miR-628 had significant shorter overall survival than high expression of miR-628 (HR = 1.553, 95% CI: 1.041-2.318, z = 2.16, P = 0.031). Conclusions: This study confirms that miR-628 may be a promising biomarker for cancer diagnosis and prognosis. Expertly, microRNAs combination biomarkers could be a new alternative for clinical application.

Diagnostic accuracy of dual-source computed tomography angiography for the detection of coronary in-stent restenosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Wen-Jun; Li, Gui-Zhen; Liu, Hai-Feng; Lei, Jun-Qiang

2018-04-01

We sought to perform a meta-analysis to comprehensively evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of dual-source computed tomography angiography (DSCTA) in detecting coronary in-stent restenosis (CISR) when compared to invasive coronary angiography. The stent-based research studies in which DSCTA was used as diagnostic tool for CISR, as recent as of October 2017, from several reputed scientific libraries (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, The Cochrane Library, and Web of Science) were evaluated. Study inclusion, data extraction, and risk bias assessment were conducted by two researchers independently. Pooled sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and area under summary receiver operator characteristics (SROC) curve (AUC) were calculated to assess the diagnostic value. In addition, heterogeneity and subgroup analysis were also carried out. A total of 13 studies with a total of 894 patients and 1384 assessable stents were included. The pooled results of DSCTA diagnosing CISR were as follows: SEN 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.96), SPE 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.94), PLR 9.83 (95% CI 6.93-13.94), NLR 0.09 (95% CI 0.05-0.15), DOR 114.73 (95% CI 64.12-205.28), and AUC 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.98), respectively. The subgroup analysis result suggested that DSTCA performed significantly better in CISR detection when the stent diameter was ≥3 mm compared with the stent diameter <3 mm: (0.98 [0.97-0.99] vs 0.82 [0.79-0.86]) with P < .05. This study revealed that DSCTA has excellent diagnostic performance for detecting CISR and may serve as an alternative for further patient evaluation with CISR, especially for stent diameter ≥3 mm. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Diagnostic value of circulating microRNAs for gastric cancer in Asian populations: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Lihua; Wang, Shan; Cao, Xiutang; Liu, Jianchao

2014-12-01

Gastric cancer (GC) accounts for one of the highest mortality worldwide and particularly in East Asia. Many studies have reported on the potential value of microRNAs (miRNAs) detection for diagnosing GC, but their results have proven inconclusive. The present meta-analysis was conducted to assess the diagnostic value of circulating miRNAs for GC diagnosis. A literature search was carried out in databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library, and CNKI) and other sources using combinations of keywords relating to GC, miRNAs, and diagnosis. The values of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios (PLR), negative likelihood ratios (NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) reported in individual studies were pooled using random-effects models. Potential sources of heterogeneity were assessed with subgroup and meta-regression analyses. The summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the diagnosis accuracy of miRNAs. This meta-analysis included 1,279 patients with GC and 954 healthy controls from 20 publications. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR, DOR, and AUC were 0.78 (95 % CI: 0.73-0.81), 0.80 (95 % CI: 0.76-0.84), 4.0 (95 % CI: 3.1-6.0), 0.28 (95 % CI: 0.23-0.34), 14 (95 % CI: 10-21), and 0.86 (95 % CI: 0.83-0.89), respectively. Subgroup analyses showed that early stages (I and II) GC were more easily detected than later stages and that multiple miRNAs assays were more accurate than single miRNA assays. Our meta-analysis suggests that miRNAs have a high diagnostic value for GC, especially in its early stages (I and II). In addition, multiple miRNAs assays have a better diagnosis value than single miRNA assays. In conclusion, circulating miRNAs might be used as noninvasive biomarkers for the confirmation of GC detection in Asian populations.

EUS for the staging of gastric cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mocellin, Simone; Marchet, Alberto; Nitti, Donato

2011-06-01

The role of EUS in the locoregional staging of gastric carcinoma is undefined. We aimed to comprehensively review and quantitatively summarize the available evidence on the staging performance of EUS. We systematically searched the MEDLINE, Cochrane, CANCERLIT, and EMBASE databases for relevant studies published until July 2010. Formal meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy parameters was performed by using a bivariate random-effects model. Fifty-four studies enrolling 5601 patients with gastric cancer undergoing disease staging with EUS were eligible for the meta-analysis. EUS staging accuracy across eligible studies was measured by computing overall sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). EUS can differentiate T1-2 from T3-4 gastric cancer with high accuracy, with overall sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR, and DOR of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.81-0.90), 0.91 (95% CI, 0.89-0.93), 9.8 (95% CI, 7.5-12.8), 0.15 (95% CI, 0.11-0.21), and 65 (95% CI, 41-105), respectively. In contrast, the diagnostic performance of EUS for lymph node status is less reliable, with overall sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR, and DOR of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.74), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81-0.88), 4.4 (95% CI, 3.6-5.4), 0.37 (95% CI, 0.32-0.44), and 12 (95% CI, 9-16), respectively. Results regarding single T categories (including T1 substages) and Bayesian nomograms to calculate posttest probabilities for any target condition prevalence are also provided. Statistical heterogeneity was generally high; unfortunately, subgroup analysis did not identify a consistent source of the heterogeneity. Our results support the use of EUS for the locoregional staging of gastric cancer, which can affect the therapeutic management of these patients. However, clinicians must be aware of the performance limits of this staging tool. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

A Predictive Model to Estimate Cost Savings of a Novel Diagnostic Blood Panel for Diagnosis of Diarrhea-predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome.

PubMed

Pimentel, Mark; Purdy, Chris; Magar, Raf; Rezaie, Ali

2016-07-01

A high incidence of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is associated with significant medical costs. Diarrhea-predominant IBS (IBS-D) is diagnosed on the basis of clinical presentation and diagnostic test results and procedures that exclude other conditions. This study was conducted to estimate the potential cost savings of a novel IBS diagnostic blood panel that tests for the presence of antibodies to cytolethal distending toxin B and anti-vinculin associated with IBS-D. A cost-minimization (CM) decision tree model was used to compare the costs of a novel IBS diagnostic blood panel pathway versus an exclusionary diagnostic pathway (ie, standard of care). The probability that patients proceed to treatment was modeled as a function of sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of the individual biomarker tests. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed for key variables, and a break-even analysis was performed for the pretest probability of IBS-D. Budget impact analysis of the CM model was extrapolated to a health plan with 1 million covered lives. The CM model (base-case) predicted $509 cost savings for the novel IBS diagnostic blood panel versus the exclusionary diagnostic pathway because of the avoidance of downstream testing (eg, colonoscopy, computed tomography scans). Sensitivity analysis indicated that an increase in both positive likelihood ratios modestly increased cost savings. Break-even analysis estimated that the pretest probability of disease would be 0.451 to attain cost neutrality. The budget impact analysis predicted a cost savings of $3,634,006 ($0.30 per member per month). The novel IBS diagnostic blood panel may yield significant cost savings by allowing patients to proceed to treatment earlier, thereby avoiding unnecessary testing. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic value of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide for pleural effusion due to heart failure: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Q; Ye, Z J; Su, Y; Zhang, J C; Shi, H Z

2010-08-01

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a biomarker useful in diagnosis of pleural effusion due to heart failure. Thus far, its overall diagnostic accuracy has not been systematically reviewed. The aim of the present meta-analysis was to establish the overall diagnostic accuracy of the measurement of pleural NT-proBNP for identifying pleural effusion due to heart failure. After a systematic review of English-language studies, sensitivity, specificity, and other measures of accuracy of NT-proBNP concentrations in pleural fluid in the diagnosis of pleural effusion resulting from heart failure were pooled using fixed-effects models. Summary receiver operating characteristic curves were used to summarise overall test performance. Eight publications met the inclusion criteria. The summary estimates for pleural NT-proBNP in the diagnosis of pleural effusion attributable to heart failure were: sensitivity 0.95 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.97), specificity 0.94 (0.92 to 0.96), positive likelihood ratio 14.12 (10.23 to 19.51), negative likelihood ratio 0.06 (0.04 to 0.09) and diagnostic OR 213.87 (122.50 to 373.40). NT-proBNP levels in pleural fluid showed a high diagnostic accuracy and may help accurately differentiate cardiac from non-cardiac conditions in patients presenting with pleural effusion.

Using the β-binomial distribution to characterize forest health

Treesearch

S.J. Zarnoch; R.L. Anderson; R.M. Sheffield

1995-01-01

The β-binomial distribution is suggested as a model for describing and analyzing the dichotomous data obtained from programs monitoring the health of forests in the United States. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is given as well as asymptotic likelihood ratio tests. The procedure is illustrated with data on dogwood anthracnose infection (caused...

Power and Sample Size Calculations for Logistic Regression Tests for Differential Item Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Zhushan

2014-01-01

Logistic regression is a popular method for detecting uniform and nonuniform differential item functioning (DIF) effects. Theoretical formulas for the power and sample size calculations are derived for likelihood ratio tests and Wald tests based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators for the logistic regression model.…

A Note on Three Statistical Tests in the Logistic Regression DIF Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paek, Insu

2012-01-01

Although logistic regression became one of the well-known methods in detecting differential item functioning (DIF), its three statistical tests, the Wald, likelihood ratio (LR), and score tests, which are readily available under the maximum likelihood, do not seem to be consistently distinguished in DIF literature. This paper provides a clarifying…

Multi-target Detection, Tracking, and Data Association on Road Networks Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkley, Brett E.

A cooperative detection and tracking algorithm for multiple targets constrained to a road network is presented for fixed-wing Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) with a finite field of view. Road networks of interest are formed into graphs with nodes that indicate the target likelihood ratio (before detection) and position probability (after detection). A Bayesian likelihood ratio tracker recursively assimilates target observations until the cumulative observations at a particular location pass a detection criterion. At this point, a target is considered detected and a position probability is generated for the target on the graph. Data association is subsequently used to route future measurements to update the likelihood ratio tracker (for undetected target) or to update a position probability (a previously detected target). Three strategies for motion planning of UAVs are proposed to balance searching for new targets with tracking known targets for a variety of scenarios. Performance was tested in Monte Carlo simulations for a variety of mission parameters, including tracking on road networks with varying complexity and using UAVs at various altitudes.

Mixture Analysis and Mammalian Sex Ratio Among Middle Pleistocene Mouflon of Arago Cave, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monchot, Hervé

1999-09-01

In archaeological studies, it is often important to be able assess sexual dimorphism and sex ratios in populations. Obtaining sex ratio is easy if each individual in the population can be accurately sexed through the use of one more objective variables. But this is often impossible, due to incompleteness of the osteological record. A modern statistical approach to handle this problem is Mixture Analysis using the method of maximum likelihood. It consists of determining how many groups are present in the sample, two in this case, in which proportions they occur, and to estimate the parameters accordingly. This paper shows the use of this method on vertebrate fossil populations in a prehistoric context with implications on prey acquisition by early humans. For instance, the analysis of mouflon bones from Arago cave (Tautavel, France) indicates that there are more females than males in the F layer. According to the ethology of the animal, this indicates that the hunting strategy could be the result of selective choice of the prey. Moreover, we may deduce the presence of Anteneandertalians on the site during spring and summer periods.

Optimum detection of tones transmitted by a spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, M. K.; Shihabi, M. M.; Moon, T.

1995-01-01

The performance of a scheme proposed for automated routine monitoring of deep-space missions is presented. The scheme uses four different tones (sinusoids) transmitted from the spacecraft (S/C) to a ground station with the positive identification of each of them used to indicate different states of the S/C. Performance is measured in terms of detection probability versus false alarm probability with detection signal-to-noise ratio as a parameter. The cases where the phase of the received tone is unknown and where both the phase and frequency of the received tone are unknown are treated separately. The decision rules proposed for detecting the tones are formulated from average-likelihood ratio and maximum-likelihood ratio tests, the former resulting in optimum receiver structures.

Modified Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation (M3AE) for Simultaneous Parameter and State Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-03-01

Contents Page Dedication : iv Acknowledgments v Table Of Contents vi List of Figures . . ; x List of Tables xv Abstract xvii Chapter 1 ...INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Overview 1 1.2 Background 7 1.2.1 The Chi-Square Test 9 1.2.2 Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLR) Testing 10 1.2.3 Multiple...M3AE Covariance Analysis 115 4.1.3 Simulations and Performance Analysis 121 4.1.3.1 Test Case 1 : aT = 32.0 124 4.1.3.2 Test Case 2: aT = 37.89, and

Research on the strategy of underwater united detection fusion and communication using multi-sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhenhua; Huang, Jianguo; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Qunfei

2011-09-01

In order to solve the distributed detection fusion problem of underwater target detection, when the signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the acoustic channel is low, a new strategy for united detection fusion and communication using multiple sensors was proposed. The performance of detection fusion was studied and compared based on the Neyman-Pearson principle when the binary phase shift keying (BPSK) and on-off keying (OOK) modes were used by the local sensors. The comparative simulation and analysis between the optimal likelihood ratio test and the proposed strategy was completed, and both the theoretical analysis and simulation indicate that using the proposed new strategy could improve the detection performance effectively. In theory, the proposed strategy of united detection fusion and communication is of great significance to the establishment of an underwater target detection system.

Measures of accuracy and performance of diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Drobatz, Kenneth J

2009-05-01

Diagnostic tests are integral to the practice of veterinary cardiology, any other specialty, and general veterinary medicine. Developing and understanding diagnostic tests is one of the cornerstones of clinical research. This manuscript describes the diagnostic test properties including sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, receiver operating characteristic curve. Review of practical book chapters and standard statistics manuscripts. Diagnostics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, and receiver operating characteristic curve are described and illustrated. Basic understanding of how diagnostic tests are developed and interpreted is essential in reviewing clinical scientific papers and understanding evidence based medicine.

Comparison of the test characteristics of procalcitonin to C-reactive protein and leukocytosis for the detection of serious bacterial infections in children presenting with fever without source: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yo, Chia-Hung; Hsieh, Pei-Shan; Lee, Si-Huei; Wu, Jiunn-Yih; Chang, Shy-Shin; Tasi, Kuang-Chau; Lee, Chien-Chang

2012-11-01

We determine the usefulness of the procalcitonin for early identification of young children at risk for severe bacterial infection among those presenting with fever without source. The design was a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic studies. Data sources were searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE in April 2011. Included were diagnostic studies that evaluated the diagnostic value of procalcitonin alone or compared with other laboratory markers, such as C-reactive protein or leukocyte count, to detect severe bacterial infection in children with fever without source who were aged between 7 days and 36 months. Eight studies were included (1,883 patients) for procalcitonin analysis, 6 (1,265 patients) for C-reactive protein analysis, and 7 (1,649 patients) for leukocyte analysis. The markers differed in their ability to predict serious bacterial infection: procalcitonin (odds ratio [OR] 10.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.9 to 16.0), C-reactive protein (OR 9.83; 95% CI 7.05 to 13.7), and leukocytosis (OR 4.26; 95% CI 3.22 to 5.63). The random-effect model was used for procalcitonin analysis because heterogeneity across studies existed. Overall sensitivity was 0.83 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.91) for procalcitonin, 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.82) for C-reactive protein, and 0.58 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.67) for leukocyte count. Overall specificity was 0.69 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.85) for procalcitonin, 0.76 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81) for C-reactive protein, and 0.73 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.77) for leukocyte count. Procalcitonin performs better than leukocyte count and C-reactive protein for detecting serious bacterial infection among children with fever without source. Considering the poor pooled positive likelihood ratio and acceptable pooled negative likelihood ratio, procalcitonin is better for ruling out serious bacterial infection than for ruling it in. Existing studies do not define how best to combine procalcitonin with other clinical information. Copyright © 2012. Published by Mosby, Inc.

12 CFR 700.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... that the facts that caused the deficient share-asset ratio no longer exist; and (ii) The likelihood of further depreciation of the share-asset ratio is not probable; and (iii) The return of the share-asset ratio to its normal limits within a reasonable time for the credit union concerned is probable; and (iv...

Assessment of goals and priorities in patients with a chronic condition: a secondary quantitative analysis of determinants across 11 countries.

PubMed

Vermunt, Neeltje P C A; Westert, Gert P; Olde Rikkert, Marcel G M; Faber, Marjan J

2018-03-01

To assess the impact of patient characteristics, patient-professional engagement, communication and context on the probability that healthcare professionals will discuss goals or priorities with older patients. Secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the 2014 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey of Older Adults. 11 western countries. Community-dwelling adults, aged 55 or older. Assessment of goals and priorities. The final sample size consisted of 17,222 respondents, 54% of whom reported an assessment of their goals and priorities (AGP) by healthcare professionals. In logistic regression model 1, which was used to analyse the entire population, the determinants found to have moderate to large effects on the likelihood of AGP were information exchange on stress, diet or exercise, or both. Country (living in Sweden) and continuity of care (no regular professional or organisation) had moderate to large negative effects on the likelihood of AGP. In model 2, which focussed on respondents who experienced continuity of care, country and information exchange on stress and lifestyle were the main determinants of AGP, with comparable odds ratios to model 1. Furthermore, a professional asking questions also increased the likelihood of AGP. Continuity of care and information exchange is associated with a higher probability of AGP, while people living in Sweden are less likely to experience these assessments. Further study is required to determine whether increasing information exchange and professionals asking more questions may improve goal setting with older patients. Key points   A patient goal-oriented approach can be beneficial for older patients with chronic conditions or multimorbidity; however, discussing goals with these patients is not a common practice. The likelihood of discussing goals varies by country, occurring most commonly in the USA, and least often in Sweden. Country-level differences in continuity of care and questions asked by a regularly visited professional affect the goal discussion probability. Patient characteristics, including age, have less impact than expected on the likelihood of sharing goals.

Adult Age Differences in Frequency Estimations of Happy and Angry Faces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nikitin, Jana; Freund, Alexandra M.

2015-01-01

With increasing age, the ratio of gains to losses becomes more negative, which is reflected in expectations that positive events occur with a high likelihood in young adulthood, whereas negative events occur with a high likelihood in old age. Little is known about expectations of social events. Given that younger adults are motivated to establish…

Top pair production in the dilepton decay channel with a tau lepton

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corbo, Matteo

2012-09-19

The top quark pair production and decay into leptons with at least one being a τ lepton is studied in the framework of the CDF experiment at the Tevatron proton antiproton collider at Fermilab (USA). The selection requires an electron or a muon produced either by the τ lepton decay or by a W decay. The analysis uses the complete Run II data set i.e. 9.0 fb -1, selected by one trigger based on a low transverse momentum electron or muon plus one isolated charged track. The top quark pair production cross section at 1.96 TeV is measured at 8.2more » ± 1.7 +1.2 -1.1 ± 0.5 pb, and the top branching ratio into τ lepton is measured at 0.120 ± 0.027 +0.022 -0.019 ± 0.007 with statistical, systematics and luminosity uncertainties. These are up to date the most accurate results in this top decay channel and are in good agreement with the results obtained using other decay channels of the top at the Tevatron. The branching ratio is also measured separating the single lepton from the two leptons events with a log likelihood method. This is the first time these two signatures are separately identified. With a fit to data along the log-likelihood variable an alternative measurement of the branching ratio is made: 0.098 ± 0.022(stat:) ± 0.014(syst:); it is in good agreement with the expectations of the Standard Model (with lepton universality) within the experimental uncertainties. The branching ratio is constrained to be less than 0.159 at 95% con dence level. This limit translates into a limit of a top branching ratio into a potential charged Higgs boson.« less

Dental infections increase the likelihood of hospital admissions among adult patients with sickle cell disease

PubMed Central

Laurence, B.; Haywood, C; Lanzkron, S.

2014-01-01

The objective To determine if dental infections increase the likelihood of hospital admission among adult patients with sickle cell disease (SCD). Basic Research Design Cross-sectional analysis of data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) pooled for the years 2006 through 2008. Prevalence ratios (PR) for the effects of interest were estimated using Poisson regression with robust estimates of the variance. Participants Adults, aged 18 and over, diagnosed with SCD using ICD-9-CM codes excluding participants discharged with a code for sickle cell trait. Main outcome measure Emergency department (ED) visit disposition, dichotomised to represent whether or not the ED visit ended in admission versus being treated and released. Results Among patients having a sickle cell crisis, those with dental infections were 72% more likely to be admitted compared to those not having dental infections (PR=1.72, 95%CI 1.58-1.87). No association was observed among adult SCD patients not having a sickle crisis event. Based on preliminary data from this analysis, prevention of dental infection among patients with SCD could result in an estimated cost saving of $2.5 million dollars per year. Conclusions Having a dental infection complicated by a sickle cell crisis significantly increases the likelihood of hospital admission among adult SCD patients presenting to the ED. PMID:24151791

Statistical characteristics of the sequential detection of signals in correlated noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averochkin, V. A.; Baranov, P. E.

1985-10-01

A solution is given to the problem of determining the distribution of the duration of the sequential two-threshold Wald rule for the time-discrete detection of determinate and Gaussian correlated signals on a background of Gaussian correlated noise. Expressions are obtained for the joint probability densities of the likelihood ratio logarithms, and an analysis is made of the effect of correlation and SNR on the duration distribution and the detection efficiency. Comparison is made with Neumann-Pearson detection.

Change-in-ratio estimators for populations with more than two subclasses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1991-01-01

Change-in-ratio methods have been developed to estimate the size of populations with two or three population subclasses. Most of these methods require the often unreasonable assumption of equal sampling probabilities for individuals in all subclasses. This paper presents new models based on the weaker assumption that ratios of sampling probabilities are constant over time for populations with three or more subclasses. Estimation under these models requires that a value be assumed for one of these ratios when there are two samples. Explicit expressions are given for the maximum likelihood estimators under models for two samples with three or more subclasses and for three samples with two subclasses. A numerical method using readily available statistical software is described for obtaining the estimators and their standard errors under all of the models. Likelihood ratio tests that can be used in model selection are discussed. Emphasis is on the two-sample, three-subclass models for which Monte-Carlo simulation results and an illustrative example are presented.

Diagnostic accuracy of PCR for detecting ALK gene rearrangement in NSCLC patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xia; Zhou, Jian-Guo; Wu, Hua-Lian; Ma, Hu; Jiang, Zhi-Xia

2017-01-01

Background Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene fusion has been reported in 3∼5% non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) patients, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is commonly used to detecting the gene status, but the diagnostic capacity of it is still controversial. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to clarify the diagnostic accuracy of PCR for detecting ALK gene rearrangement in NSCLC patients. Results 18 articles were enrolled, which included 21 studies, involving 2800 samples from NSCLC patients. The overall pooled parameters were calculated: sensitivity was 92.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 82.2%–97.0%], specificity was 97.8% [95% CI: 95.1%–99.0%], PLR was 41.51 [95% CI: 18.10–95.22], NLR was 0.08 [95% CI: 0.03–0.19], DOR was 535.72 [95% CI: 128.48–2233.79], AUROC was 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98–1.00]. Materials and Methods Relevant articles were searched from PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane library, American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), China Wan Fang databases and Chinese biomedical literature database (CBM). Diagnostic capacity of PCR test was assessed by the pooled sensitivity and specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (AUROC). Conclusions Based on the results from this review, PCR has good diagnostic performance for detecting the ALK gene fusion in NSCLC patients. Moreover, due to the poor methodology quality of the enrolled trials, more well-designed multi-center trials should be performed. PMID:29088875

Treatment, survival, and costs of laryngeal cancer care in the elderly.

PubMed

Gourin, Christine G; Dy, Sydney M; Herbert, Robert J; Blackford, Amanda L; Quon, Harry; Forastiere, Arlene A; Eisele, David W; Frick, Kevin D

2014-08-01

To examine associations between treatment and volume with survival and costs in elderly patients with laryngeal squamous cell cancer (SCCA). Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data. We evaluated 2,370 patients diagnosed with laryngeal SCCA from 2004 to 2007 using cross-tabulations, multivariate logistic and generalized linear regression modeling, and survival analysis. Chemoradiation was significantly associated with supraglottic tumors (relative risk ratio: 2.6, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7-4.0), additional cancer-directed treatment (odds ratio [OR]: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2-2.7), and a reduced likelihood of surgical salvage (OR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.2-0.6). Surgery with postoperative radiation was associated with significantly improved survival (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.9), after controlling for patient and tumor variables including salvage. High-volume care was not associated with survival for nonoperative treatment but was associated with improved survival (HR: 0.7, 95% CI: 0.5-0.8) among surgical patients. Initial treatment and 5-year overall costs for chemoradiation were higher than for all other treatment categories. High-volume care was associated with significantly lower costs of care for surgical patients but was not associated with differences in costs of care for nonoperative treatment. Chemoradiation in elderly patients with laryngeal cancer was associated with increased costs, additional cancer-directed treatment, and a reduced likelihood of surgical salvage. Surgery with postoperative radiation was associated with improved survival in this cohort, and high-volume hospital surgical care was associated with improved survival and lower costs. These findings have implications for improving the quality of laryngeal cancer treatment at a time of both rapid growth in the elderly population and diminishing healthcare resources. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Accuracy of Assessment of Eligibility for Early Medical Abortion by Community Health Workers in Ethiopia, India and South Africa.

PubMed

Johnston, Heidi Bart; Ganatra, Bela; Nguyen, My Huong; Habib, Ndema; Afework, Mesganaw Fantahun; Harries, Jane; Iyengar, Kirti; Moodley, Jennifer; Lema, Hailu Yeneneh; Constant, Deborah; Sen, Swapnaleen

2016-01-01

To assess the accuracy of assessment of eligibility for early medical abortion by community health workers using a simple checklist toolkit. Diagnostic accuracy study. Ethiopia, India and South Africa. Two hundred seventeen women in Ethiopia, 258 in India and 236 in South Africa were enrolled into the study. A checklist toolkit to determine eligibility for early medical abortion was validated by comparing results of clinician and community health worker assessment of eligibility using the checklist toolkit with the reference standard exam. Accuracy was over 90% and the negative likelihood ratio <0.1 at all three sites when used by clinician assessors. Positive likelihood ratios were 4.3 in Ethiopia, 5.8 in India and 6.3 in South Africa. When used by community health workers the overall accuracy of the toolkit was 92% in Ethiopia, 80% in India and 77% in South Africa negative likelihood ratios were 0.08 in Ethiopia, 0.25 in India and 0.22 in South Africa and positive likelihood ratios were 5.9 in Ethiopia and 2.0 in India and South Africa. The checklist toolkit, as used by clinicians, was excellent at ruling out participants who were not eligible, and moderately effective at ruling in participants who were eligible for medical abortion. Results were promising when used by community health workers particularly in Ethiopia where they had more prior experience with use of diagnostic aids and longer professional training. The checklist toolkit assessments resulted in some participants being wrongly assessed as eligible for medical abortion which is an area of concern. Further research is needed to streamline the components of the tool, explore optimal duration and content of training for community health workers, and test feasibility and acceptability.

Predicting Rotator Cuff Tears Using Data Mining and Bayesian Likelihood Ratios

PubMed Central

Lu, Hsueh-Yi; Huang, Chen-Yuan; Su, Chwen-Tzeng; Lin, Chen-Chiang

2014-01-01

Objectives Rotator cuff tear is a common cause of shoulder diseases. Correct diagnosis of rotator cuff tears can save patients from further invasive, costly and painful tests. This study used predictive data mining and Bayesian theory to improve the accuracy of diagnosing rotator cuff tears by clinical examination alone. Methods In this retrospective study, 169 patients who had a preliminary diagnosis of rotator cuff tear on the basis of clinical evaluation followed by confirmatory MRI between 2007 and 2011 were identified. MRI was used as a reference standard to classify rotator cuff tears. The predictor variable was the clinical assessment results, which consisted of 16 attributes. This study employed 2 data mining methods (ANN and the decision tree) and a statistical method (logistic regression) to classify the rotator cuff diagnosis into “tear” and “no tear” groups. Likelihood ratio and Bayesian theory were applied to estimate the probability of rotator cuff tears based on the results of the prediction models. Results Our proposed data mining procedures outperformed the classic statistical method. The correction rate, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve of predicting a rotator cuff tear were statistical better in the ANN and decision tree models compared to logistic regression. Based on likelihood ratios derived from our prediction models, Fagan's nomogram could be constructed to assess the probability of a patient who has a rotator cuff tear using a pretest probability and a prediction result (tear or no tear). Conclusions Our predictive data mining models, combined with likelihood ratios and Bayesian theory, appear to be good tools to classify rotator cuff tears as well as determine the probability of the presence of the disease to enhance diagnostic decision making for rotator cuff tears. PMID:24733553

Fatty liver index and hepatic steatosis index for prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Sviklāne, Laura; Olmane, Evija; Dzērve, Zane; Kupčs, Kārlis; Pīrāgs, Valdis; Sokolovska, Jeļizaveta

2018-01-01

Little is known about the diagnostic value of hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and fatty liver index (FLI), as well as their link to metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes mellitus. We have screened the effectiveness of FLI and HSI in an observational pilot study of 40 patients with type 1 diabetes. FLI and HSI were calculated for 201 patients with type 1 diabetes. Forty patients with FLI/HSI values corresponding to different risk of liver steatosis were invited for liver magnetic resonance study. In-phase/opposed-phase technique of magnetic resonance was used. Accuracy of indices was assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Twelve (30.0%) patients had liver steatosis. For FLI, sensitivity was 90%; specificity, 74%; positive likelihood ratio, 3.46; negative likelihood ratio, 0.14; positive predictive value, 0.64; and negative predictive value, 0.93. For HSI, sensitivity was 86%; specificity, 66%; positive likelihood ratio, 1.95; negative likelihood ratio, 0.21; positive predictive value, 0.50; and negative predictive value, 0.92. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for FLI was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [0.72; 0.99]); for HSI 0.75 [0.58; 0.91]. Liver fat correlated with liver enzymes, waist circumference, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein. FLI correlated with C-reactive protein, liver enzymes, and blood pressure. HSI correlated with waist circumference and C-reactive protein. FLI ≥ 60 and HSI ≥ 36 were significantly associated with metabolic syndrome and nephropathy. The tested indices, especially FLI, can serve as surrogate markers for liver fat content and metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Using DNA fingerprints to infer familial relationships within NHANES III households

PubMed Central

Katki, Hormuzd A.; Sanders, Christopher L.; Graubard, Barry I.; Bergen, Andrew W.

2009-01-01

Developing, targeting, and evaluating genomic strategies for population-based disease prevention require population-based data. In response to this urgent need, genotyping has been conducted within the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination (NHANES III), the nationally-representative household-interview health survey in the U.S. However, before these genetic analyses can occur, family relationships within households must be accurately ascertained. Unfortunately, reported family relationships within NHANES III households based on questionnaire data are incomplete and inconclusive with regards to actual biological relatedness of family members. We inferred family relationships within households using DNA fingerprints (Identifiler®) that contain the DNA loci used by law enforcement agencies for forensic identification of individuals. However, performance of these loci for relationship inference is not well understood. We evaluated two competing statistical methods for relationship inference on pairs of household members: an exact likelihood ratio relying on allele frequencies to an Identical By State (IBS) likelihood ratio that only requires matching alleles. We modified these methods to account for genotyping errors and population substructure. The two methods usually agree on the rankings of the most likely relationships. However, the IBS method underestimates the likelihood ratio by not accounting for the informativeness of matching rare alleles. The likelihood ratio is sensitive to estimates of population substructure, and parent-child relationships are sensitive to the specified genotyping error rate. These loci were unable to distinguish second-degree relationships and cousins from being unrelated. The genetic data is also useful for verifying reported relationships and identifying data quality issues. An important by-product is the first explicitly nationally-representative estimates of allele frequencies at these ubiquitous forensic loci. PMID:20664713

Minia, Egypt: Principal Component Analysis

PubMed

Abdelrehim, Marwa G; Mahfouz, Eman M; Ewis, Ashraf A; Seedhom, Amany E; Afifi, Hassan M; Shebl, Fatma M

2018-02-26

Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a serious and rapidly progressing malignancy. Identifying risk factors including dietary elements is important to develop preventive strategies. This study focused on possible links between diet and PC. Methods: We conducted a case-control study including all PC patients diagnosed at Minia Cancer Center and controls from general population from June 2014 to December 2015. Dietary data were collected directly through personal interviews. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to identify dietary groups. The data were analyzed using crude odds ratios (ORs) and multivariable logistic regression with adjusted ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: A total of 75 cases and 149 controls were included in the study. PCA identified six dietary groups, labeled as cereals and grains, vegetables, proteins, dairy products, fruits, and sugars. Bivariate analysis showed that consumption of vegetables, fruits, sugars, and total energy intake were associated with change in PC risk. In multivariable-adjusted models comparing highest versus lowest levels of intake, we observed significant lower odds of PC in association with vegetable intake (OR 0.24; 95% CI, 0.07-0.85, P=0.012) and a higher likelihood with the total energy intake (OR 9.88; 95% CI, 2.56-38.09, P<0.0001). There was also a suggested link between high fruit consumption and reduced odds of PC. Conclusions: The study supports the association between dietary factors and the odds of PC development in Egypt. It was found that higher energy intake is associated with an increase in likelihood of PC, while increased vegetable consumption is associated with a lower odds ratio. Creative Commons Attribution License

Diagnostic accuracy of droplet digital PCR for detection of EGFR T790M mutation in circulating tumor DNA

PubMed Central

Tong, Xiang; Wang, Ye; Wang, Chengdi; Jin, Jing; Tian, Panwen; Li, Weimin

2018-01-01

Objectives Although different methods have been established to detect epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) T790M mutation in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), a wide range of diagnostic accuracy values were reported in previous studies. The aim of this meta-analysis was to provide pooled diagnostic accuracy measures for droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) in the diagnosis of EGFR T790M mutation based on ctDNA. Materials and methods A systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out based on resources from Pubmed, Web of Science, Embase and Cochrane Library up to October 11, 2017. Data were extracted to assess the pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic OR (DOR), and areas under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve (SROC). Results Eleven of 311 studies identified have met the including criteria. The sensitivity and specificity of ddPCR for the detection of T790M mutation in ctDNA ranged from 0.0% to 100.0% and 63.2% to 100.0%, respectively. For the pooled analysis, ddPCR had a performance of 70.1% (95% CI, 62.7%–76.7%) sensitivity, 86.9 % (95% CI, 80.6%–91.7%) specificity, 3.67 (95% CI, 2.33–5.79) PLR, 0.41 (95% CI, 0.32–0.55) NLR, and 10.83 (95% CI, 5.86–20.03) DOR, with the area under the SROC curve being 0.82. Conclusion The ddPCR harbored a good performance for detection of EGFR T790M mutation in ctDNA. PMID:29844700

Efficient molecular screening of Lynch syndrome by specific 3' promoter methylation of the MLH1 or BRAF mutation in colorectal cancer with high-frequency microsatellite instability.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Hitoshi; Nagasaka, Takeshi; Cullings, Harry M; Notohara, Kenji; Hoshijima, Naoko; Young, Joanne; Lynch, Henry T; Tanaka, Noriaki; Matsubara, Nagahide

2009-06-01

It is sometimes difficult to diagnose Lynch syndrome by the simple but strict clinical criteria, or even by the definitive genetic testing for causative germline mutation of mismatch repair genes. Thus, some practical and efficient screening strategy to select highly possible Lynch syndrome patients is exceedingly desirable. We performed a comprehensive study to evaluate the methylation status of whole MLH1 promoter region by direct bisulfite sequencing of the entire MLH1 promoter regions on Lynch and non-Lynch colorectal cancers (CRCs). Then, we established a convenient assay to detect methylation in key CpG islands responsible for the silencing of MLH1 expression. We studied the methylation status of MLH1 as well as the CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) and immunohistochemical analysis of mismatch repair proteins on 16 cases of Lynch CRC and 19 cases of sporadic CRCs with high-frequency microsatellite instability (MSI-H). Sensitivity to detect Lynch syndrome by MLH1 (CCAAT) methylation was 88% and the specificity was 84%. Positive likelihood ratio (PLR) was 5.5 and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was 0.15. Sensitivity by mutational analysis of BRAF was 100%, specificity was 84%, PLR was 6.3 and NLR was zero. By CIMP analysis; sensitivity was 88%, specificity was 79%, PLR was 4.2, and NLR was 0.16. BRAF mutation or MLH1 methylation analysis combined with MSI testing could be a good alternative to screen Lynch syndrome patients in a cost effective manner. Although the assay for CIMP status also showed acceptable sensitivity and specificity, it may not be practical because of its rather complicated assay.

Molecular imaging with (99m)Tc-MIBI and molecular testing for mutations in differentiating benign from malignant follicular neoplasm: a prospective comparison.

PubMed

Giovanella, L; Campenni, A; Treglia, G; Verburg, F A; Trimboli, P; Ceriani, L; Bongiovanni, M

2016-06-01

To compare mutation analysis of cytology specimens and (99m)Tc-MIBI thyroid scintigraphy for differentiating benign from malignant thyroid nodules in patients with a cytological reading of follicular neoplasm. Patients ≥18 years of age with a solitary hypofunctioning thyroid nodule (≥10 mm), normal thyrotropin and calcitonin levels, and a cytological diagnosis of follicular neoplasm were prospectively enrolled. Mutation analysis and (99m)Tc-MIBI scintigraphy were performed and patients were subsequently operated on to confirm or exclude a malignant lesion. Mutations for KRAS, HRAS and NRAS and for BRAF and translocations of PAX8/PPARγ, RET/PTC1 and RET/PTC3 were investigated. Static thyroid scintigraphic images were acquired 10 and 60 min after intravenous injection of 200 MBq of (99m)Tc-MIBI and visually assessed. Additionally, the MIBI washout index was calculated using a semiquantitative method. In our series, 26 % of nodules with a follicular pattern on cytology were malignant with a prevalence of follicular carcinomas. (99m)Tc-MIBI scintigraphy was found to be significantly more accurate (positive likelihood ratio 4.56 for visual assessment and 12.35 for semiquantitative assessment) than mutation analysis (positive likelihood ratio 1.74). A negative (99m)Tc-MIBI scan reliably excluded malignancy. In patients with a thyroid nodule cytologically diagnosed as a follicular proliferation, semiquantitative analysis of (99m)Tc-MIBI scintigraphy should be the preferred method for differentiating benign from malignant nodules. It is superior to molecular testing for the presence of differentiated thyroid cancer-associated mutations in fine-needle aspiration cytology sample material.

Head-to-head comparison of the diagnostic performance of coronary computed tomography angiography and dobutamine-stress echocardiography in the evaluation of acute chest pain with normal ECG findings and negative troponin tests: A prospective multicenter study.

PubMed

Durand, Eric; Bauer, Fabrice; Mansencal, Nicolas; Azarine, Arshid; Diebold, Benoit; Hagege, Albert; Perdrix, Ludivine; Gilard, Martine; Jobic, Yannick; Eltchaninoff, Hélène; Bensalah, Mourad; Dubourg, Benjamin; Caudron, Jérôme; Niarra, Ralph; Chatellier, Gilles; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas; Mousseaux, Elie

2017-08-15

To perform a head-to-head comparison of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) and dobutamine-stress echocardiography (DSE) in patients presenting recent chest pain when troponin and ECG are negative. Two hundred seventeen patients with recent chest pain, normal ECG findings, and negative troponin were prospectively included in this multicenter study and were scheduled for CCTA and DSE. Invasive coronary angiography (ICA), was performed in patients when either DSE or CCTA was considered positive or when both were non-contributive or in case of recurrent chest pain during 6month follow-up. The presence of coronary artery stenosis was defined as a luminal obstruction >50% diameter in any coronary segment at ICA. ICA was performed in 75 (34.6%) patients. Coronary artery stenosis was identified in 37 (17%) patients. For CCTA, the sensitivity was 96.9% (95% CI 83.4-99.9), specificity 48.3% (29.4-67.5), positive likelihood ratio 2.06 (95% CI 1.36-3.11), and negative likelihood ratio 0.07 (95% CI 0.01-0.52). The sensitivity of DSE was 51.6% (95% CI 33.1-69.9), specificity 46.7% (28.3-65.7), positive likelihood ratio 1.03 (95% CI 0.62-1.72), and negative likelihood ratio 1.10 (95% CI 0.63-1.93). The CCTA: DSE ratio of true-positive and false-positive rates was 1.70 (95% CI 1.65-1.75) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.91-1.09), respectively, when non-contributive CCTA and DSE were both considered positive. Only one missed acute coronary syndrome was observed at six months. CCTA has higher diagnostic performance than DSE in the evaluation of patients with recent chest pain, normal ECG findings, and negative troponine to exclude coronary artery disease. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Antidepressant Use and Recurrent Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: Findings From the Health ABC Study.

PubMed

Marcum, Zachary A; Perera, Subashan; Thorpe, Joshua M; Switzer, Galen E; Castle, Nicholas G; Strotmeyer, Elsa S; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Ayonayon, Hilsa N; Phillips, Caroline L; Rubin, Susan; Zucker-Levin, Audrey R; Bauer, Douglas C; Shorr, Ronald I; Kang, Yihuang; Gray, Shelly L; Hanlon, Joseph T

2016-07-01

Few studies have compared the risk of recurrent falls across various antidepressant agents-using detailed dosage and duration data-among community-dwelling older adults, including those who have a history of a fall/fracture. To examine the association of antidepressant use with recurrent falls, including among those with a history of falls/fractures, in community-dwelling elders. This was a longitudinal analysis of 2948 participants with data collected via interview at year 1 from the Health, Aging and Body Composition study and followed through year 7 (1997-2004). Any antidepressant medication use was self-reported at years 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 and further categorized as (1) selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), (2) tricyclic antidepressants, and (3) others. Dosage and duration were examined. The outcome was recurrent falls (≥2) in the ensuing 12-month period following each medication data collection. Using multivariable generalized estimating equations models, we observed a 48% greater likelihood of recurrent falls in antidepressant users compared with nonusers (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.12-1.96). Increased likelihood was also found among those taking SSRIs (AOR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.15-2.28), with short duration of use (AOR = 1.47; 95% CI = 1.04-2.00), and taking moderate dosages (AOR = 1.59; 95% CI = 1.15-2.18), all compared with no antidepressant use. Stratified analysis revealed an increased likelihood among users with a baseline history of falls/fractures compared with nonusers (AOR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.28-2.63). Antidepressant use overall, SSRI use, short duration of use, and moderate dosage were associated with recurrent falls. Those with a history of falls/fractures also had an increased likelihood of recurrent falls. © The Author(s) 2016.

A blood-based screening tool for Alzheimer's disease that spans serum and plasma: findings from TARC and ADNI.

PubMed

O'Bryant, Sid E; Xiao, Guanghua; Barber, Robert; Huebinger, Ryan; Wilhelmsen, Kirk; Edwards, Melissa; Graff-Radford, Neill; Doody, Rachelle; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon

2011-01-01

There is no rapid and cost effective tool that can be implemented as a front-line screening tool for Alzheimer's disease (AD) at the population level. To generate and cross-validate a blood-based screener for AD that yields acceptable accuracy across both serum and plasma. Analysis of serum biomarker proteins were conducted on 197 Alzheimer's disease (AD) participants and 199 control participants from the Texas Alzheimer's Research Consortium (TARC) with further analysis conducted on plasma proteins from 112 AD and 52 control participants from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The full algorithm was derived from a biomarker risk score, clinical lab (glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol, homocysteine), and demographic (age, gender, education, APOE*E4 status) data. Alzheimer's disease. 11 proteins met our criteria and were utilized for the biomarker risk score. The random forest (RF) biomarker risk score from the TARC serum samples (training set) yielded adequate accuracy in the ADNI plasma sample (training set) (AUC = 0.70, sensitivity (SN) = 0.54 and specificity (SP) = 0.78), which was below that obtained from ADNI cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) analyses (t-tau/Aβ ratio AUC = 0.92). However, the full algorithm yielded excellent accuracy (AUC = 0.88, SN = 0.75, and SP = 0.91). The likelihood ratio of having AD based on a positive test finding (LR+) = 7.03 (SE = 1.17; 95% CI = 4.49-14.47), the likelihood ratio of not having AD based on the algorithm (LR-) = 3.55 (SE = 1.15; 2.22-5.71), and the odds ratio of AD were calculated in the ADNI cohort (OR) = 28.70 (1.55; 95% CI = 11.86-69.47). It is possible to create a blood-based screening algorithm that works across both serum and plasma that provides a comparable screening accuracy to that obtained from CSF analyses.

Validation of a short cognitive tool for the screening of dementia in elderly people with low educational level.

PubMed

De Yébenes, María Jesús García; Otero, Angel; Zunzunegui, María Victoria; Rodríguez-Laso, Angel; Sánchez-Sánchez, Fernando; Del Ser, Teodoro

2003-10-01

To validate the 'Prueba Cognitiva de Leganés' (PCL) as a screening tool for cognitive impairment in elderly people with little formal education. The PCL is a simple cognitive test with 32 items that includes two scores of orientation and memory and a global score of 0-32 points. It was applied to a population sample of 527 elderly people over 70 with low educational level, who were independently diagnosed by consensus between two neurologists as having normal cognitive function, age associated cognitive decline (AACD, IPA-OMS criteria) or dementia (DSM-IV criteria). Individuals with severe visual or hearing defects and those who rejected the exam were excluded from the study. The PCL was validated in a sample of 375 individuals: 300 normal, 42 with AACD and 33 with dementia. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and likelihood ratios, as well as the ROC curves for dementia and for AACD-dementia, were calculated. The confounding effect of sociodemographic variables was assessed by logistic regression analysis and convergent validity by partial correlations of the PCL with other cognitive tests. Inter-rater reliability was evaluated with the intraclass correlation coefficient. The PCL identified dementia (cut-off < or =22) and AACD-dementia (cut-off < or =26), with the following diagnostic parameters, respectively: sensitivity 93.9%-80%, specificity 94.7%-84.3%, positive likelihood ratio 17.8-5.1, negative likelihood ratio 0.06-0.24, and accuracy 94.6%-83.4%. The areas under the ROC curve were 0.985 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.967-0.995) and 0.904 (95% CI: 0.870-0.932) respectively. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.79 (0.74-0.83). The PCL is a simple instrument, which is both valid and reliable, for the screening of dementia in population samples of individuals with low educational level. This instrument could be useful in primary health care. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Sequential Probability Ratio Test and Binary Item Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nydick, Steven W.

2014-01-01

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) is a common method for terminating item response theory (IRT)-based adaptive classification tests. To decide whether a classification test should stop, the SPRT compares a simple log-likelihood ratio, based on the classification bound separating two categories, to prespecified critical values. As has…

Relationship Formation and Stability in Emerging Adulthood: Do Sex Ratios Matter?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warner, Tara D.; Manning, Wendy D.; Giordano, Peggy C.; Longmore, Monica A.

2011-01-01

Research links sex ratios with the likelihood of marriage and divorce. However, whether sex ratios similarly influence precursors to marriage (transitions in and out of dating or cohabiting relationships) is unknown. Utilizing data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study and the 2000 U.S. Census, this study assesses whether sex ratios…

The diagnostic performance of CT-derived fractional flow reserve for evaluation of myocardial ischaemia confirmed by invasive fractional flow reserve: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, S; Tang, X; Peng, L; Luo, Y; Dong, R; Liu, J

2015-05-01

To review the literature on the diagnostic accuracy of CT-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) for the evaluation of myocardial ischaemia in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease, with invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the reference standard. A PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane cross-search was performed. The pooled diagnostic accuracy of FFRCT, with FFR as the reference standard, was primarily analysed, and then compared with that of CT angiography (CTA). The thresholds to diagnose ischaemia were FFR ≤0.80 or CTA ≥50% stenosis. Data extraction, synthesis, and statistical analysis were performed by standard meta-analysis methods. Three multicentre studies (NXT Trial, DISCOVER-FLOW study and DeFACTO study) were included, examining 609 patients and 1050 vessels. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) for FFRCT were 89% (85-93%), 71% (65-75%), 70% (65-75%), 90% (85-93%), 3.31 (1.79-6.14), 0.16 (0.11-0.23), and 21.21 (9.15-49.15) at the patient-level, and 83% (78-63%), 78% (75-81%), 61% (56-65%), 92% (89-90%), 4.02 (1.84-8.80), 0.22 (0.13-0.35), and 19.15 (5.73-63.93) at the vessel-level. At per-patient analysis, FFRCT has similar sensitivity but improved specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR-, and DOR versus those of CTA. At per-vessel analysis, FFRCT had a slightly lower sensitivity, similar NPV, but improved specificity, PPV, LR+, LR-, and DOR compared with those of CTA. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves for FFRCT was 0.8909 at patient-level and 0.8865 at vessel-level, versus 0.7402 for CTA at patient-level. FFRCT, which was associated with improved diagnostic accuracy versus CTA, is a viable alternative to FFR for detecting coronary ischaemic lesions. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tumor necrosis factor α level in cerebrospinal fluid for bacterial and aseptic meningitis: a diagnostic meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lv, S; Zhao, J; Zhang, J; Kwon, S; Han, M; Bian, R; Fu, H; Zhang, Y; Pan, H

2014-08-01

In our previous study, tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) was identified as an effective target for sepsis patients (Int J Clin Pract, 68, 2014, 520). TNF-α in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was also investigated for its utility in the differential diagnosis of bacterial and aseptic meningitis. However, there has been neither definite nor convincing evidence so far. Here the overall diagnostic accuracy of TNF-α in differentiation between bacterial and aseptic meningitis was evaluated through the meta-analysis of diagnostic tests. The sensitivity, specificity and other measures of accuracy were pooled using random effect models. Summary receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess overall test performance. Publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots, and sensitivity analysis was also introduced. A total of 21 studies involving bacterial meningitis (678) and aseptic meningitis (694) involved a total of 1372 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for the TNF-α test were 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.86, I(2)  = 65.1] and 0.92 (95% CI 0.89-0.94, I(2)  = 61.8), respectively. The positive likelihood ratio was 12.05 (95% CI 7.41-19.60, I(2)  = 36.5), the negative likelihood ratio was 0.17 (95% CI 0.13-0.24, I(2)  = 59.4), and TNF-α was significantly associated with bacterial meningitis, with a diagnostic odds ratio of 49.84 (95% CI 28.53-87.06, I(2)  = 47.9). The overall accuracy of the TNF-α test was very high with the area under the curve 0.9317. Publication bias was absent, and sensitivity analysis suggested that our results were highly stable. Our meta-analysis suggested that TNF-α could be recommended as a useful marker for diagnosis of bacterial meningitis and differential diagnosis between bacterial and aseptic meningitis with high sensitivity and specificity. Thus, hospitals should be encouraged to conduct TNF-α tests in CSF after lumbar puncture. © 2014 The Author(s) European Journal of Neurology © 2014 EAN.

Parametric Model Based On Imputations Techniques for Partly Interval Censored Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zyoud, Abdallah; Elfaki, F. A. M.; Hrairi, Meftah

2017-12-01

The term ‘survival analysis’ has been used in a broad sense to describe collection of statistical procedures for data analysis. In this case, outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs where the time to failure of a specific experimental unit might be censored which can be right, left, interval, and Partly Interval Censored data (PIC). In this paper, analysis of this model was conducted based on parametric Cox model via PIC data. Moreover, several imputation techniques were used, which are: midpoint, left & right point, random, mean, and median. Maximum likelihood estimate was considered to obtain the estimated survival function. These estimations were then compared with the existing model, such as: Turnbull and Cox model based on clinical trial data (breast cancer data), for which it showed the validity of the proposed model. Result of data set indicated that the parametric of Cox model proved to be more superior in terms of estimation of survival functions, likelihood ratio tests, and their P-values. Moreover, based on imputation techniques; the midpoint, random, mean, and median showed better results with respect to the estimation of survival function.

Reliability of Soft Tissue Model Based Implant Surgical Guides; A Methodological Mistake.

PubMed

Sabour, Siamak; Dastjerdi, Elahe Vahid

2012-08-20

Abstract We were interested to read the paper by Maney P and colleagues published in the July 2012 issue of J Oral Implantol. The authors aimed to assess the reliability of soft tissue model based implant surgical guides reported that the accuracy was evaluated using software. 1 I found the manuscript title of Maney P, et al. incorrect and misleading. Moreover, they reported twenty-two sites (46.81%) were considered accurate (13 of 24 maxillary and 9 of 23 mandibular sites). As the authors point out in their conclusion, Soft tissue models do not always provide sufficient accuracy for implant surgical guide fabrication.Reliability (precision) and validity (accuracy) are two different methodological issues in researches. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, likelihood ratio positive (true positive/false negative) and likelihood ratio negative (false positive/ true negative) as well as odds ratio (true results\\false results - preferably more than 50) are among the tests to evaluate the validity (accuracy) of a single test compared to a gold standard.2-4 It is not clear that the reported twenty-two sites (46.81%) which were considered accurate related to which of the above mentioned estimates for validity analysis. Reliability (repeatability or reproducibility) is being assessed by different statistical tests such as Pearson r, least square and paired t.test which all of them are among common mistakes in reliability analysis 5. Briefly, for quantitative variable Intra Class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and for qualitative variables weighted kappa should be used with caution because kappa has its own limitation too. Regarding reliability or agreement, it is good to know that for computing kappa value, just concordant cells are being considered, whereas discordant cells should also be taking into account in order to reach a correct estimation of agreement (Weighted kappa).2-4 As a take home message, for reliability and validity analysis, appropriate tests should be applied.

Diagnostic performance of coronary computed tomography angiography versus exercise electrocardiography for coronary artery disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Yin, Xinxin; Zheng, Wen; Ma, Jingjing; Hao, Panpan

2016-01-01

Background Both coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and exercise electrocardiography (ExECG) are non-invasive testing methods for the evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, there was controversy on the diagnostic performance of these methods due to the limited data in each single study. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to address these issues. Methods We searched PubMed and Embase databases up to May 22, 2015. Two authors identified eligible studies, extracted data and accessed quality. Pooled estimation of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), summary receiver-operating characteristic curve (SROC) and the area under curve (AUC) of CCTA and ExECG for the diagnosis of CAD were calculated using Stata, Meta-Disc and Review Manager statistical software. Results Seven articles were included. Pooled sensitivity of CCTA and ExECG were 0.98 [95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.95–0.99] and 0.66 (95% CIs: 0.59–0.72); pooled specificity of CCTA and ExECG were 0.84 (95% CIs: 0.81–0.87) and 0.75 (95% CIs: 0.71–0.79); pooled DOR of CCTA and ExECG were 110.24 (95% CIs: 35.07–346.55) and 6.28 (95% CIs: 2.06–19.13); and AUC of CCTA and ExECG were 0.9950±0.0046 and 0.7727±0.0638, respectively. There is no heterogeneity caused by threshold effect in CCTA or ExECG analysis. The Deeks’ test showed no potential publication bias (P=0.17). Conclusions CCTA has better diagnostic performance than ExECG in the evaluation of CAD, which can provide a better solution for the clinical problem of the diagnosis for CAD. PMID:27499958

The optimal power puzzle: scrutiny of the monotone likelihood ratio assumption in multiple testing.

PubMed

Cao, Hongyuan; Sun, Wenguang; Kosorok, Michael R

2013-01-01

In single hypothesis testing, power is a non-decreasing function of type I error rate; hence it is desirable to test at the nominal level exactly to achieve optimal power. The puzzle lies in the fact that for multiple testing, under the false discovery rate paradigm, such a monotonic relationship may not hold. In particular, exact false discovery rate control may lead to a less powerful testing procedure if a test statistic fails to fulfil the monotone likelihood ratio condition. In this article, we identify different scenarios wherein the condition fails and give caveats for conducting multiple testing in practical settings.

Validation of the diagnostic score for acute lower abdominal pain in women of reproductive age.

PubMed

Jearwattanakanok, Kijja; Yamada, Sirikan; Suntornlimsiri, Watcharin; Smuthtai, Waratsuda; Patumanond, Jayanton

2014-01-01

Background. The differential diagnoses of acute appendicitis obstetrics, and gynecological conditions (OB-GYNc) or nonspecific abdominal pain in young adult females with lower abdominal pain are clinically challenging. The present study aimed to validate the recently developed clinical score for the diagnosis of acute lower abdominal pain in female of reproductive age. Method. Medical records of reproductive age women (15-50 years) who were admitted for acute lower abdominal pain were collected. Validation data were obtained from patients admitted during a different period from the development data. Result. There were 302 patients in the validation cohort. For appendicitis, the score had a sensitivity of 91.9%, a specificity of 79.0%, and a positive likelihood ratio of 4.39. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio in diagnosis of OB-GYNc were 73.0%, 91.6%, and 8.73, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating curves (ROC), the positive likelihood ratios, for appendicitis and OB-GYNc in the validation data were not significantly different from the development data, implying similar performances. Conclusion. The clinical score developed for the diagnosis of acute lower abdominal pain in female of reproductive age may be applied to guide differential diagnoses in these patients.

SEPARABLE FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS TO MORTALITY DATA

PubMed Central

Fosdick, Bailey K.; Hoff, Peter D.

2014-01-01

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume an independent error distribution or an error model that allows for dependence along at most one or two dimensions of the data array. However, failing to account for other dependencies can lead to inefficient estimates of regression parameters, inaccurate standard errors and poor predictions. An alternative to assuming independent errors is to allow for dependence along each dimension of the array using a separable covariance model. However, the number of parameters in this model increases rapidly with the dimensions of the array and, for many arrays, maximum likelihood estimates of the covariance parameters do not exist. In this paper, we propose a submodel of the separable covariance model that estimates the covariance matrix for each dimension as having factor analytic structure. This model can be viewed as an extension of factor analysis to array-valued data, as it uses a factor model to estimate the covariance along each dimension of the array. We discuss properties of this model as they relate to ordinary factor analysis, describe maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods, and provide a likelihood ratio testing procedure for selecting the factor model ranks. We apply this methodology to the analysis of data from the Human Mortality Database, and show in a cross-validation experiment how it outperforms simpler methods. Additionally, we use this model to impute mortality rates for countries that have no mortality data for several years. Unlike other approaches, our methodology is able to estimate similarities between the mortality rates of countries, time periods and sexes, and use this information to assist with the imputations. PMID:25489353

Prediction of hamstring injury in professional soccer players by isokinetic measurements

PubMed Central

Dauty, Marc; Menu, Pierre; Fouasson-Chailloux, Alban; Ferréol, Sophie; Dubois, Charles

2016-01-01

Summary Objectives previous studies investigating the ability of isokinetic strength ratios to predict hamstring injuries in soccer players have reported conflicting results. Hypothesis to determine if isokinetic ratios are able to predict hamstring injury occurring during the season in professional soccer players. Study Design case-control study; Level of evidence: 3. Methods from 2001 to 2011, 350 isokinetic tests were performed in 136 professional soccer players at the beginning of the soccer season. Fifty-seven players suffered hamstring injury during the season that followed the isokinetic tests. These players were compared with the 79 uninjured players. The bilateral concentric ratio (hamstring-to-hamstring), ipsilateral concentric ratio (hamstring-to-quadriceps), and mixed ratio (eccentric/concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) were studied. The predictive ability of each ratio was established based on the likelihood ratio and post-test probability. Results the mixed ratio (30 eccentric/240 concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) <0.8, ipsilateral ratio (180 concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) <0.47, and bilateral ratio (60 concentric hamstring-to-hamstring) <0.85 were the most predictive of hamstring injury. The ipsilateral ratio <0.47 allowed prediction of the severity of the hamstring injury, and was also influenced by the length of time since administration of the isokinetic tests. Conclusion isokinetic ratios are useful for predicting the likelihood of hamstring injury in professional soccer players during the competitive season. PMID:27331039

Evaluation of a diagnostic flow chart applying medical thoracoscopy, adenosine deaminase and T-SPOT.TB in diagnosis of tuberculous pleural effusion.

PubMed

He, Y; Zhang, W; Huang, T; Wang, X; Wang, M

2015-10-01

To evaluate a diagnostic flow chart applying medical thoracoscoy (MT), adenosine deaminase (ADA) and T-SPOT.TB in diagnosis of tuberculous pleural effusion (TPE) at a high TB burden country. 136 patients with pleural effusion (PE) were enrolled and divided into TPE and Non-TPE group. MT (histology), PE ADA and T-SPOT.TB were conducted on all patients. ROC analysis was performed for the best cut-off value of PE ADA in detection of TPE. The diagnostic flow chart applying MT, ADA and T-SPOT.TB was evaluated for improving the limitations of each diagnostic method. ROC analysis showed that the best cut-off value of PE ADA was 30U/L. The sensitivity and specificity of these tests were calculated respectively to be: 71.4% (58.5%-81.6%) and 100% (95.4-100.0%) for MT, 92.9% (83.0-97.2%) and 68.8% (57.9-77.9%) for T-SPOT.TB, and 80.0% (69.6-88.1%) and 92.9% (82.7-98.0%) for PE ADA. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the diagnostic flow chart were 96.4% (87.9-99.0%), 96.3% (89.6-98.7%), 25.714, 0.037, 97.4 and 94.9, respectively. The diagnostic flow chart applying MT, ADA and T-SPOT.TB is an accurate and rapid diagnostic method in detection of TPE.

Nailfold capillaroscopy for day-to-day clinical use: construction of a simple scoring modality as a clinical prognostic index for digital trophic lesions.

PubMed

Smith, Vanessa; De Keyser, Filip; Pizzorni, Carmen; Van Praet, Jens T; Decuman, Saskia; Sulli, Alberto; Deschepper, Ellen; Cutolo, Maurizio

2011-01-01

Construction of a simple nailfold videocapillaroscopic (NVC) scoring modality as a prognostic index for digital trophic lesions for day-to-day clinical use. An association with a single simple (semi)-quantitatively scored NVC parameter, mean score of capillary loss, was explored in 71 consecutive patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), and reliable reduction in the number of investigated fields (F32-F16-F8-F4). The cut-off value of the prognostic index (mean score of capillary loss calculated over a reduced number of fields) for present/future digital trophic lesions was selected by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. Reduction in the number of fields for mean score of capillary loss was reliable from F32 to F8 (intraclass correlation coefficient of F16/F32: 0.97; F8/F32: 0.90). Based on ROC analysis, a prognostic index (mean score of capillary loss as calculated over F8) with a cut-off value of 1.67 is proposed. This value has a sensitivity of 72.22/70.00, specificity of 70.59/69.77, positive likelihood ratio of 2.46/2.32 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.39/0.43 for present/future digital trophic lesions. A simple prognostic index for digital trophic lesions for daily use in SSc clinics is proposed, limited to the mean score of capillary loss as calculated over eight fields (8 fingers, 1 field per finger).

Detecting Multiple Model Components with the Likelihood Ratio Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protassov, R. S.; van Dyk, D. A.

2000-05-01

The likelihood ratio test (LRT) and F-test popularized in astrophysics by Bevington (Data Reduction and Error Analysis in the Physical Sciences ) and Cash (1977, ApJ 228, 939), do not (even asymptotically) adhere to their nominal χ2 and F distributions in many statistical tests commonly used in astrophysics. The many legitimate uses of the LRT (see, e.g., the examples given in Cash (1977)) notwithstanding, it can be impossible to compute the false positive rate of the LRT or related tests such as the F-test. For example, although Cash (1977) did not suggest the LRT for detecting a line profile in a spectral model, it has become common practice despite the lack of certain required mathematical regularity conditions. Contrary to common practice, the nominal distribution of the LRT statistic should not be used in these situations. In this paper, we characterize an important class of problems where the LRT fails, show the non-standard behavior of the test in this setting, and provide a Bayesian alternative to the LRT, i.e., posterior predictive p-values. We emphasize that there are many legitimate uses of the LRT in astrophysics, and even when the LRT is inappropriate, there remain several statistical alternatives (e.g., judicious use of error bars and Bayes factors). We illustrate this point in our analysis of GRB 970508 that was studied by Piro et al. in ApJ, 514:L73-L77, 1999.

Tile-based Fisher ratio analysis of comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS) data using a null distribution approach.

PubMed

Parsons, Brendon A; Marney, Luke C; Siegler, W Christopher; Hoggard, Jamin C; Wright, Bob W; Synovec, Robert E

2015-04-07

Comprehensive two-dimensional (2D) gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS) is a versatile instrumental platform capable of collecting highly informative, yet highly complex, chemical data for a variety of samples. Fisher-ratio (F-ratio) analysis applied to the supervised comparison of sample classes algorithmically reduces complex GC × GC-TOFMS data sets to find class distinguishing chemical features. F-ratio analysis, using a tile-based algorithm, significantly reduces the adverse effects of chromatographic misalignment and spurious covariance of the detected signal, enhancing the discovery of true positives while simultaneously reducing the likelihood of detecting false positives. Herein, we report a study using tile-based F-ratio analysis whereby four non-native analytes were spiked into diesel fuel at several concentrations ranging from 0 to 100 ppm. Spike level comparisons were performed in two regimes: comparing the spiked samples to the nonspiked fuel matrix and to each other at relative concentration factors of two. Redundant hits were algorithmically removed by refocusing the tiled results onto the original high resolution pixel level data. To objectively limit the tile-based F-ratio results to only features which are statistically likely to be true positives, we developed a combinatorial technique using null class comparisons, called null distribution analysis, by which we determined a statistically defensible F-ratio cutoff for the analysis of the hit list. After applying null distribution analysis, spiked analytes were reliably discovered at ∼1 to ∼10 ppm (∼5 to ∼50 pg using a 200:1 split), depending upon the degree of mass spectral selectivity and 2D chromatographic resolution, with minimal occurrence of false positives. To place the relevance of this work among other methods in this field, results are compared to those for pixel and peak table-based approaches.

Excess Maternal Transmission of Markers in TCOF1 Among Cleft Palate Case-Parent Trios From Three Populations

PubMed Central

Sull, Jae Woong; Liang, Kung-Yee; Hetmanski, Jacqueline B.; Fallin, M. Daniele; Ingersoll, Roxanne G.; Park, Ji Wan; Wu-Chou, Yah-Huei; Chen, Philip K.; Chong, Samuel S.; Cheah, Felicia; Yeow, Vincent; Park, Beyoung Yun; Jee, Sun Ha; Jabs, Ethylin W.; Redett, Richard; Scott, Alan F.; Beaty, Terri H.

2009-01-01

Isolated cleft palate is among the most common human birth defects. The TCOF1 gene has been suggested as a candidate gene for cleft palate based on animal models. This study tests for association between markers in TCOF1 and isolated, nonsyndromic cleft palate using a case-parent trio design considering parent-of-origin effects. Case-parent trios from three populations (comprising a total of 81 case-parent trios) were genotyped for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the TCOF1 gene. We used the transmission disequilibrium test and the transmission asymmetry test on individual SNPs. When all trios were combined, the odds ratio for transmission of the minor allele, OR(transmission), was significant for SNP rs15251 (OR = 2.88, P = 0.007), as well as rs2255796 and rs2569062 (OR = 2.08, P = 0.03; OR = 2.43, P = 0.041; respectively) when parent of origin was not considered. The transmission asymmetry test also revealed one SNP (rs15251) showing excess maternal transmission significant at the P = 0.005 level (OR = 6.50). Parent-of-origin effects were assessed using the parent-of-origin likelihood ratio test on both SNPs and haplotypes. While the parent-of-origin likelihood ratio test was only marginally significant for this SNP (P = 0.136), analysis of haplotypes of rs2255796 and rs15251 suggested excess maternal transmission. Therefore, these data suggest TCOF1 may influence risk of cleft palate through a parent-of-origin effect. PMID:18688869

Implementation and assessment of a likelihood ratio approach for the evaluation of LA-ICP-MS evidence in forensic glass analysis.

PubMed

van Es, Andrew; Wiarda, Wim; Hordijk, Maarten; Alberink, Ivo; Vergeer, Peter

2017-05-01

For the comparative analysis of glass fragments, a method using Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is in use at the NFI, giving measurements of the concentration of 18 elements. An important question is how to evaluate the results as evidence that a glass sample originates from a known glass source or from an arbitrary different glass source. One approach is the use of matching criteria e.g. based on a t-test or overlap of confidence intervals. An important drawback of this method is the fact that the rarity of the glass composition is not taken into account. A similar match can have widely different evidential values. In addition the use of fixed matching criteria can give rise to a "fall off the cliff" effect. Small differences may result in a match or a non-match. In this work a likelihood ratio system is presented, largely based on the two-level model as proposed by Aitken and Lucy [1], and Aitken, Zadora and Lucy [2]. Results show that the output from the two-level model gives good discrimination between same and different source hypotheses, but a post-hoc calibration step is necessary to improve the accuracy of the likelihood ratios. Subsequently, the robustness and performance of the LR system are studied. Results indicate that the output of the LR system is robust to the sample properties of the dataset used for calibration. Furthermore, the empirical upper and lower bound method [3], designed to deal with extrapolation errors in the density models, results in minimum and maximum values of the LR outputted by the system of 3.1×10 -3 and 3.4×10 4 . Calibration of the system, as measured by empirical cross-entropy, shows good behavior over the complete prior range. Rates of misleading evidence are small: for same-source comparisons, 0.3% of LRs support a different-source hypothesis; for different-source comparisons, 0.2% supports a same-source hypothesis. The authors use the LR system in reporting of glass cases to support expert opinion in the interpretation of glass evidence for origin of source questions. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling and E-M estimation of haplotype-specific relative risks from genotype data for a case-control study of unrelated individuals.

PubMed

Stram, Daniel O; Leigh Pearce, Celeste; Bretsky, Phillip; Freedman, Matthew; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Altshuler, David; Kolonel, Laurence N; Henderson, Brian E; Thomas, Duncan C

2003-01-01

The US National Cancer Institute has recently sponsored the formation of a Cohort Consortium (http://2002.cancer.gov/scpgenes.htm) to facilitate the pooling of data on very large numbers of people, concerning the effects of genes and environment on cancer incidence. One likely goal of these efforts will be generate a large population-based case-control series for which a number of candidate genes will be investigated using SNP haplotype as well as genotype analysis. The goal of this paper is to outline the issues involved in choosing a method of estimating haplotype-specific risk estimates for such data that is technically appropriate and yet attractive to epidemiologists who are already comfortable with odds ratios and logistic regression. Our interest is to develop and evaluate extensions of methods, based on haplotype imputation, that have been recently described (Schaid et al., Am J Hum Genet, 2002, and Zaykin et al., Hum Hered, 2002) as providing score tests of the null hypothesis of no effect of SNP haplotypes upon risk, which may be used for more complex tasks, such as providing confidence intervals, and tests of equivalence of haplotype-specific risks in two or more separate populations. In order to do so we (1) develop a cohort approach towards odds ratio analysis by expanding the E-M algorithm to provide maximum likelihood estimates of haplotype-specific odds ratios as well as genotype frequencies; (2) show how to correct the cohort approach, to give essentially unbiased estimates for population-based or nested case-control studies by incorporating the probability of selection as a case or control into the likelihood, based on a simplified model of case and control selection, and (3) finally, in an example data set (CYP17 and breast cancer, from the Multiethnic Cohort Study) we compare likelihood-based confidence interval estimates from the two methods with each other, and with the use of the single-imputation approach of Zaykin et al. applied under both null and alternative hypotheses. We conclude that so long as haplotypes are well predicted by SNP genotypes (we use the Rh2 criteria of Stram et al. [1]) the differences between the three methods are very small and in particular that the single imputation method may be expected to work extremely well. Copyright 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel

Diagnostic and prognostic value of microRNA-628 for cancers

PubMed Central

Li, Jing-Hua; Sun, Shan-Shan; Fu, Chang-Jin; Zhang, An-Qi; Wang, Chen; Xu, Rong; Xie, Shu-Yang; Wang, Ping-Yu

2018-01-01

Background: Many studies manifested miRNA-628 (miR-628) was deregulated in various cancers, indicating that miR-628 might serve as a novel biomarker of cancer diagnosis and prognosis, but it's role was still uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate the value of miR-628 in various cancers for diagnosis and prognosis, as well as its predictive power in combination biomarkers. Materials and Methods: A literature search was performed using Medline (via PubMed), Embase, Web of Science databases, and Ovid platform up to November 2017. Meta-analysis was performed to provide summative outcomes. Quality assessment of each included study was performed. Results: Twelve articles with 20 studies were included in our meta-analysis, including 8 articles with 15 studies for diagnostic meta-analysis and 4 articles with 5 studies for prognostic meta-analysis. For the diagnostic meta-analysis of miR-628 alone, the overall pooled results for sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) were 0.81 (95% CI: 0.62-0.91), 0.72 (95% CI: 0.48-0.88), 2.90 (95% CI: 1.50-5.40), 0.27 (95% CI: 0.14-0.50), 11.0 (95% CI: 4.00-25.00), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.87), respectively. For the diagnostic meta-analysis of miR-628-related combination biomarkers, the above six parameters were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.92), 0.93 (95% CI: 0.82-0.97), 12.30 (95% CI: 4.70-32.50), 0.12 (95% CI: 0.08-0.19), and 100.00 (95% CI: 28.00-354.00), 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.95), respectively. For the prognostic meta-analysis, patients with lower miR-628 had significant shorter overall survival than high expression of miR-628 (HR = 1.553, 95% CI: 1.041-2.318, z = 2.16, P = 0.031). Conclusions: This study confirms that miR-628 may be a promising biomarker for cancer diagnosis and prognosis. Expertly, microRNAs combination biomarkers could be a new alternative for clinical application. PMID:29760801

On the occurrence of false positives in tests of migration under an isolation with migration model

PubMed Central

Hey, Jody; Chung, Yujin; Sethuraman, Arun

2015-01-01

The population genetic study of divergence is often done using a Bayesian genealogy sampler, like those implemented in IMa2 and related programs, and these analyses frequently include a likelihood-ratio test of the null hypothesis of no migration between populations. Cruickshank and Hahn (2014, Molecular Ecology, 23, 3133–3157) recently reported a high rate of false positive test results with IMa2 for data simulated with small numbers of loci under models with no migration and recent splitting times. We confirm these findings and discover that they are caused by a failure of the assumptions underlying likelihood ratio tests that arises when using marginal likelihoods for a subset of model parameters. We also show that for small data sets, with little divergence between samples from two populations, an excellent fit can often be found by a model with a low migration rate and recent splitting time and a model with a high migration rate and a deep splitting time. PMID:26456794

Clinical Evaluation and Physical Exam Findings in Patients with Anterior Shoulder Instability.

PubMed

Lizzio, Vincent A; Meta, Fabien; Fidai, Mohsin; Makhni, Eric C

2017-12-01

The goal of this paper is to provide an overview in evaluating the patient with suspected or known anteroinferior glenohumeral instability. There is a high rate of recurrent subluxations or dislocations in young patients with history of anterior shoulder dislocation, and recurrent instability will increase likelihood of further damage to the glenohumeral joint. Proper identification and treatment of anterior shoulder instability can dramatically reduce the rate of recurrent dislocation and prevent subsequent complications. Overall, the anterior release or surprise test demonstrates the best sensitivity and specificity for clinically diagnosing anterior shoulder instability, although other tests also have favorable sensitivities, specificities, positive likelihood ratios, negative likelihood ratios, and inter-rater reliabilities. Anterior shoulder instability is a relatively common injury in the young and athletic population. The combination of history and performing apprehension, relocation, release or surprise, anterior load, and anterior drawer exam maneuvers will optimize sensitivity and specificity for accurately diagnosing anterior shoulder instability in clinical practice.

Patterns of c-reactive protein RATIO response in severe community-acquired pneumonia: a cohort study.

PubMed

Coelho, Luís M; Salluh, Jorge I F; Soares, Márcio; Bozza, Fernando A; Verdeal, Juan Carlos R; Castro-Faria-Neto, Hugo C; Lapa e Silva, José Roberto; Bozza, Patrícia T; Póvoa, Pedro

2012-12-12

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission remains a severe medical condition, presenting ICU mortality rates reaching 30%. The aim of this study was to assess the value of different patterns of C-reactive protein (CRP)-ratio response to antibiotic therapy in patients with severe CAP requiring ICU admission as an early maker of outcome. In total, 191 patients with severe CAP were prospectively included and CRP was sampled every other day from D1 to D7 of antibiotic prescription. CRP-ratio was calculated in relation to D1 CRP concentration. Patients were classified according to an individual pattern of CRP-ratio response with the following criteria: fast response - when D5 CRP was less than or equal to 0.4 of D1 CRP concentration; slow response - when D5 CRP was > 0.4 and D7 less than or equal to 0.8 of D1 CRP concentration; nonresponse - when D7 CRP was > 0.8 of D1 CRP concentration. Comparison between ICU survivors and non-survivors was performed. CRP-ratio from D1 to D7 decreased faster in survivors than in non-survivors (p = 0.01). The ability of CRP-ratio by D5 to predict ICU outcome assessed by the area under the ROC curve was 0.73 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.64 - 0.82). By D5, a CRP concentration above 0.5 of the initial level was a marker of poor outcome (sensitivity 0.81, specificity 0.58, positive likelihood ratio 1.93, negative likelihood ratio 0.33). The time-dependent analysis of CRP-ratio of the three patterns (fast response n = 66; slow response n = 81; nonresponse n = 44) was significantly different between groups (p < 0.001). The ICU mortality rate was considerably different according to the patterns of CRP-ratio response: fast response 4.8%, slow response 17.3% and nonresponse 36.4% (p < 0.001). In severe CAP, sequential evaluation of CRP-ratio was useful in the early identification of patients with poor outcome. The evaluation of CRP-ratio pattern of response to antibiotics during the first week of therapy was useful in the recognition of the individual clinical evolution.

Factors Associated with Young Adults’ Pregnancy Likelihood

PubMed Central

Kitsantas, Panagiota; Lindley, Lisa L.; Wu, Huichuan

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES While progress has been made to reduce adolescent pregnancies in the United States, rates of unplanned pregnancy among young adults (18–29 years) remain high. In this study, we assessed factors associated with perceived likelihood of pregnancy (likelihood of getting pregnant/getting partner pregnant in the next year) among sexually experienced young adults who were not trying to get pregnant and had ever used contraceptives. METHODS We conducted a secondary analysis of 660 young adults, 18–29 years old in the United States, from the cross-sectional National Survey of Reproductive and Contraceptive Knowledge. Logistic regression and classification tree analyses were conducted to generate profiles of young adults most likely to report anticipating a pregnancy in the next year. RESULTS Nearly one-third (32%) of young adults indicated they believed they had at least some likelihood of becoming pregnant in the next year. Young adults who believed that avoiding pregnancy was not very important were most likely to report pregnancy likelihood (odds ratio [OR], 5.21; 95% CI, 2.80–9.69), as were young adults for whom avoiding a pregnancy was important but not satisfied with their current contraceptive method (OR, 3.93; 95% CI, 1.67–9.24), attended religious services frequently (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.52–5.94), were uninsured (OR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.31–5.26), and were likely to have unprotected sex in the next three months (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.04–3.01). DISCUSSION These results may help guide future research and the development of pregnancy prevention interventions targeting sexually experienced young adults. PMID:25782849

Subjective global assessment of nutritional status in children.

PubMed

Mahdavi, Aida Malek; Ostadrahimi, Alireza; Safaiyan, Abdolrasool

2010-10-01

This study was aimed to compare the subjective and objective nutritional assessments and to analyse the performance of subjective global assessment (SGA) of nutritional status in diagnosing undernutrition in paediatric patients. One hundred and forty children (aged 2-12 years) hospitalized consecutively in Tabriz Paediatric Hospital from June 2008 to August 2008 underwent subjective assessment using the SGA questionnaire and objective assessment, including anthropometric and biochemical measurements. Agreement between two assessment methods was analysed by the kappa (κ) statistic. Statistical indicators including (sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, error rates, accuracy, powers, likelihood ratios and odds ratio) between SGA and objective assessment method were determined. The overall prevalence of undernutrition according to the SGA (70.7%) was higher than that by objective assessment of nutritional status (48.5%). Agreement between the two evaluation methods was only fair to moderate (κ = 0.336, P < 0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of the SGA method for screening undernutrition in this population were 88.235%, 45.833%, 60.606% and 80.487%, respectively. Accuracy, positive and negative power of the SGA method were 66.428%, 56.074% and 41.25%, respectively. Likelihood ratio positive, likelihood ratio negative and odds ratio of the SGA method were 1.628, 0.256 and 6.359, respectively. Our findings indicated that in assessing nutritional status of children, there is not a good level of agreement between SGA and objective nutritional assessment. In addition, SGA is a highly sensitive tool for assessing nutritional status and could identify children at risk of developing undernutrition. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Gastrointestinal malignancies: when does race matter?

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Timothy L; Bradley, Cathy J; Dahman, Bassam; Zervos, Emmanuel E

2009-11-01

African Americans have a poorer survival from gastrointestinal cancers. We hypothesized that socioeconomic status may explain much of this disparity. Four years of population-based Medicare and Medicaid administrative claims files were merged with the Michigan Tumor Registry. Data were identified for 18,260 patients with colorectal (n = 13,001), pancreatic (n = 2,427), gastric (n = 1,739), and esophageal (n = 1,093) cancer. Three outcomes were studied: the likelihood of late stage diagnosis, the likelihood of surgery after diagnosis, and survival. Bivariate analysis was used to compare stage and operation between African-American and Caucasian patients. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate differences in survival. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05. In unadjusted analyses, relative to Caucasian patients, African-American patients with colorectal and esophageal cancer were more likely to present with metastatic disease, were less likely to have surgery, and were less likely to survive during the study period (p < 0.05). In a multivariate analysis, African-American patients had a higher likelihood of death from colorectal cancer than Caucasian patients. This difference, however, did not persist when late stage and surgery were taken into account (hazard ratio = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.24). No racial differences in survival were observed among patients with esophagus, gastric, or pancreatic cancer. These data suggest that improvements in screening and rates of operation may reduce differences in colorectal cancer outcomes between African-American and Caucasian patients. But race has little influence on survival of patients with pancreatic, esophageal, or gastric cancer.

An Informative Interpretation of Decision Theory: The Information Theoretic Basis for Signal-to-Noise Ratio and Log Likelihood Ratio

DOE PAGES

Polcari, J.

2013-08-16

The signal processing concept of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), in its role as a performance measure, is recast within the more general context of information theory, leading to a series of useful insights. Establishing generalized SNR (GSNR) as a rigorous information theoretic measure inherent in any set of observations significantly strengthens its quantitative performance pedigree while simultaneously providing a specific definition under general conditions. This directly leads to consideration of the log likelihood ratio (LLR): first, as the simplest possible information-preserving transformation (i.e., signal processing algorithm) and subsequently, as an absolute, comparable measure of information for any specific observation exemplar. Furthermore,more » the information accounting methodology that results permits practical use of both GSNR and LLR as diagnostic scalar performance measurements, directly comparable across alternative system/algorithm designs, applicable at any tap point within any processing string, in a form that is also comparable with the inherent performance bounds due to information conservation.« less

Nasal Airway Microbiota Profile and Severe Bronchiolitis in Infants: A Case-control Study.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Kohei; Linnemann, Rachel W; Mansbach, Jonathan M; Ajami, Nadim J; Espinola, Janice A; Petrosino, Joseph F; Piedra, Pedro A; Stevenson, Michelle D; Sullivan, Ashley F; Thompson, Amy D; Camargo, Carlos A

2017-11-01

Little is known about the relationship of airway microbiota with bronchiolitis in infants. We aimed to identify nasal airway microbiota profiles and to determine their association with the likelihood of bronchiolitis in infants. A case-control study was conducted. As a part of a multicenter prospective study, we collected nasal airway samples from 40 infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis. We concurrently enrolled 110 age-matched healthy controls. By applying 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing and an unbiased clustering approach to these 150 nasal samples, we identified microbiota profiles and determined the association of microbiota profiles with likelihood of bronchiolitis. Overall, the median age was 3 months and 56% were male. Unbiased clustering of airway microbiota identified 4 distinct profiles: Moraxella-dominant profile (37%), Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profile (27%), Staphylococcus-dominant profile (15%) and mixed profile (20%). Proportion of bronchiolitis was lowest in infants with Moraxella-dominant profile (14%) and highest in those with Staphylococcus-dominant profile (57%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 7.80 (95% confidence interval, 2.64-24.9; P < 0.001). In the multivariable model, the association between Staphylococcus-dominant profile and greater likelihood of bronchiolitis persisted (odds ratio for comparison with Moraxella-dominant profile, 5.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-22.9; P = 0.03). By contrast, Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profile group had low proportion of infants with bronchiolitis (17%); the likelihood of bronchiolitis in this group did not significantly differ from those with Moraxella-dominant profile in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses. In this case-control study, we identified 4 distinct nasal airway microbiota profiles in infants. Moraxella-dominant and Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profiles were associated with low likelihood of bronchiolitis, while Staphylococcus-dominant profile was associated with high likelihood of bronchiolitis.

Mental Health Recovery in the Patient-Centered Medical Home

PubMed Central

Aarons, Gregory A.; O’Connell, Maria; Davidson, Larry; Groessl, Erik J.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We examined the impact of transitioning clients from a mental health clinic to a patient-centered medical home (PCMH) on mental health recovery. Methods. We drew data from a large US County Behavioral Health Services administrative data set. We used propensity score analysis and multilevel modeling to assess the impact of the PCMH on mental health recovery by comparing PCMH participants (n = 215) to clients receiving service as usual (SAU; n = 22 394) from 2011 to 2013 in San Diego County, California. We repeatedly assessed mental health recovery over time (days since baseline assessment range = 0–1639; mean = 186) with the Illness Management and Recovery (IMR) scale and Recovery Markers Questionnaire. Results. For total IMR (log-likelihood ratio χ2[1] = 4696.97; P < .001) and IMR Factor 2 Management scores (log-likelihood ratio χ2[1] = 7.9; P = .005), increases in mental health recovery over time were greater for PCMH than SAU participants. Increases on all other measures over time were similar for PCMH and SAU participants. Conclusions. Greater increases in mental health recovery over time can be expected when patients with severe mental illness are provided treatment through the PCMH. Evaluative efforts should be taken to inform more widespread adoption of the PCMH. PMID:26180945

Comparative Outcome Analysis of Penicillin-Based Versus Fluoroquinolone-Based Antibiotic Therapy for Community-Acquired Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Wang, Chi-Chuan; Lin, Chia-Hui; Lin, Kuan-Yin; Chuang, Yu-Chung; Sheng, Wang-Huei

2016-01-01

Abstract Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common but potentially life-threatening condition, but limited information exists on the effectiveness of fluoroquinolones compared to β-lactams in outpatient settings. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and outcomes of penicillins versus respiratory fluoroquinolones for CAP at outpatient clinics. This was a claim-based retrospective cohort study. Patients aged 20 years or older with at least 1 new pneumonia treatment episode were included, and the index penicillin or respiratory fluoroquinolone therapies for a pneumonia episode were at least 5 days in duration. The 2 groups were matched by propensity scores. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare the rates of hospitalizations/emergence service visits and 30-day mortality. A logistic model was used to compare the likelihood of treatment failure between the 2 groups. After propensity score matching, 2622 matched pairs were included in the final model. The likelihood of treatment failure of fluoroquinolone-based therapy was lower than that of penicillin-based therapy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 0.77–0.99), but no differences were found in hospitalization/emergence service (ES) visits (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.27; 95% CI, 0.92–1.74) and 30-day mortality (adjusted HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.30–1.62) between the 2 groups. The likelihood of treatment failure of fluoroquinolone-based therapy was lower than that of penicillin-based therapy for CAP on an outpatient clinic basis. However, this effect may be marginal. Further investigation into the comparative effectiveness of these 2 treatment options is warranted. PMID:26871827

Statistics and Discoveries at the LHC (1/4)

ScienceCinema

Cowan, Glen

2018-02-09

The lectures will give an introduction to statistics as applied in particle physics and will provide all the necessary basics for data analysis at the LHC. Special emphasis will be placed on the the problems and questions that arise when searching for new phenomena, including p-values, discovery significance, limit setting procedures, treatment of small signals in the presence of large backgrounds. Specific issues that will be addressed include the advantages and drawbacks of different statistical test procedures (cut-based, likelihood-ratio, etc.), the look-elsewhere effect and treatment of systematic uncertainties.

Statistics and Discoveries at the LHC (3/4)

ScienceCinema

Cowan, Glen

2018-02-19

The lectures will give an introduction to statistics as applied in particle physics and will provide all the necessary basics for data analysis at the LHC. Special emphasis will be placed on the the problems and questions that arise when searching for new phenomena, including p-values, discovery significance, limit setting procedures, treatment of small signals in the presence of large backgrounds. Specific issues that will be addressed include the advantages and drawbacks of different statistical test procedures (cut-based, likelihood-ratio, etc.), the look-elsewhere effect and treatment of systematic uncertainties.

Statistics and Discoveries at the LHC (4/4)

ScienceCinema

Cowan, Glen

2018-05-22

The lectures will give an introduction to statistics as applied in particle physics and will provide all the necessary basics for data analysis at the LHC. Special emphasis will be placed on the the problems and questions that arise when searching for new phenomena, including p-values, discovery significance, limit setting procedures, treatment of small signals in the presence of large backgrounds. Specific issues that will be addressed include the advantages and drawbacks of different statistical test procedures (cut-based, likelihood-ratio, etc.), the look-elsewhere effect and treatment of systematic uncertainties.

Statistics and Discoveries at the LHC (2/4)

ScienceCinema

Cowan, Glen

2018-04-26

The lectures will give an introduction to statistics as applied in particle physics and will provide all the necessary basics for data analysis at the LHC. Special emphasis will be placed on the the problems and questions that arise when searching for new phenomena, including p-values, discovery significance, limit setting procedures, treatment of small signals in the presence of large backgrounds. Specific issues that will be addressed include the advantages and drawbacks of different statistical test procedures (cut-based, likelihood-ratio, etc.), the look-elsewhere effect and treatment of systematic uncertainties.

Models and analysis for multivariate failure time data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Joanna Huang

The goal of this research is to develop and investigate models and analytic methods for multivariate failure time data. We compare models in terms of direct modeling of the margins, flexibility of dependency structure, local vs. global measures of association, and ease of implementation. In particular, we study copula models, and models produced by right neutral cumulative hazard functions and right neutral hazard functions. We examine the changes of association over time for families of bivariate distributions induced from these models by displaying their density contour plots, conditional density plots, correlation curves of Doksum et al, and local cross ratios of Oakes. We know that bivariate distributions with same margins might exhibit quite different dependency structures. In addition to modeling, we study estimation procedures. For copula models, we investigate three estimation procedures. the first procedure is full maximum likelihood. The second procedure is two-stage maximum likelihood. At stage 1, we estimate the parameters in the margins by maximizing the marginal likelihood. At stage 2, we estimate the dependency structure by fixing the margins at the estimated ones. The third procedure is two-stage partially parametric maximum likelihood. It is similar to the second procedure, but we estimate the margins by the Kaplan-Meier estimate. We derive asymptotic properties for these three estimation procedures and compare their efficiency by Monte-Carlo simulations and direct computations. For models produced by right neutral cumulative hazards and right neutral hazards, we derive the likelihood and investigate the properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Finally, we develop goodness of fit tests for the dependency structure in the copula models. We derive a test statistic and its asymptotic properties based on the test of homogeneity of Zelterman and Chen (1988), and a graphical diagnostic procedure based on the empirical Bayes approach. We study the performance of these two methods using actual and computer generated data.

Examining the types and payments of the disabilities of the insurants in the National Farmers' Health Insurance program in Taiwan.

PubMed

Wang, Jiun-Hao; Chang, Hung-Hao

2010-10-26

In contrast to the considerable body of literature concerning the disabilities of the general population, little information exists pertaining to the disabilities of the farm population. Focusing on the disability issue to the insurants in the Farmers' Health Insurance (FHI) program in Taiwan, this paper examines the associations among socio-demographic characteristics, insured factors, and the introduction of the national health insurance program, as well as the types and payments of disabilities among the insurants. A unique dataset containing 1,594,439 insurants in 2008 was used in this research. A logistic regression model was estimated for the likelihood of received disability payments. By focusing on the recipients, a disability payment and a disability type equation were estimated using the ordinary least squares method and a multinomial logistic model, respectively, to investigate the effects of the exogenous factors on their received payments and the likelihood of having different types of disabilities. Age and different job categories are significantly associated with the likelihood of receiving disability payments. Compared to those under age 45, the likelihood is higher among recipients aged 85 and above (the odds ratio is 8.04). Compared to hired workers, the odds ratios for self-employed and spouses of farm operators who were not members of farmers' associations are 0.97 and 0.85, respectively. In addition, older insurants are more likely to have eye problems; few differences in disability types are related to insured job categories. Results indicate that older farmers are more likely to receive disability payments, but the likelihood is not much different among insurants of various job categories. Among all of the selected types of disability, a highest likelihood is found for eye disability. In addition, the introduction of the national health insurance program decreases the likelihood of receiving disability payments. The experience in Taiwan can be valuable for other countries that are in an initial stage to implement a universal health insurance program.

Diagnostic Value of Urinary Mevalonic Acid Excretion in Patients with a Clinical Suspicion of Mevalonate Kinase Deficiency (MKD).

PubMed

Jeyaratnam, Jerold; Ter Haar, Nienke M; de Sain-van der Velden, Monique G M; Waterham, Hans R; van Gijn, Mariëlle E; Frenkel, Joost

2016-01-01

In patients suffering from mevalonate kinase deficiency (MKD), the reduced enzyme activity leads to an accumulation of mevalonic acid which is excreted in the urine. This study aims to evaluate the diagnostic value of urinary mevalonic acid measurement in patients with a clinical suspicion of mevalonate kinase deficiency. In this single-center, retrospective analysis, all patients in whom both measurement of mevalonic acid and genetic testing had been performed in the preceding 17 years have been included. The presence of two pathogenic MVK mutations or demonstration of decreased enzyme activity was considered to be the gold standard for the diagnosis of MKD. Sixty-one patients were included in this study. Thirteen of them harbored two MVK mutations; twelve of them showed elevated levels of mevalonic acid. Forty-eight patients did not harbor any MVK mutations, yet five of them excreted increased amounts of mevalonic acid. This corresponds to a sensitivity of 92%, a specificity of 90%, a positive predictive value of 71%, and a negative predictive value of 98%. The positive likelihood ratio is 10 and the negative likelihood ratio is 0.09. MKD seems very unlikely in patients with a normal mevalonic acid excretion, but it cannot be excluded completely. Further, a positive urinary mevalonic acid excretion still requires MVK analysis to confirm the diagnosis of MKD. Therefore, detection of urinary mevalonic acid should not be mandatory before genetic testing. However, as long as genetic testing is not widely available and affordable, measurement of urinary mevalonic acid is a fair way to select patients for MVK gene analysis or enzyme assay.

Estimating the variance for heterogeneity in arm-based network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Piepho, Hans-Peter; Madden, Laurence V; Roger, James; Payne, Roger; Williams, Emlyn R

2018-04-19

Network meta-analysis can be implemented by using arm-based or contrast-based models. Here we focus on arm-based models and fit them using generalized linear mixed model procedures. Full maximum likelihood (ML) estimation leads to biased trial-by-treatment interaction variance estimates for heterogeneity. Thus, our objective is to investigate alternative approaches to variance estimation that reduce bias compared with full ML. Specifically, we use penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and hierarchical (h) likelihood approaches. In addition, we consider a novel model modification that yields estimators akin to the residual maximum likelihood estimator for linear mixed models. The proposed methods are compared by simulation, and 2 real datasets are used for illustration. Simulations show that penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood reduce bias and yield satisfactory coverage rates. Sum-to-zero restriction and baseline contrasts for random trial-by-treatment interaction effects, as well as a residual ML-like adjustment, also reduce bias compared with an unconstrained model when ML is used, but coverage rates are not quite as good. Penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood are therefore recommended. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Average Likelihood Methods for Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

lengths in the range of 22 to 213 and possibly higher. Keywords: DS / CDMA signals, classification, balanced CDMA load, synchronous CDMA , decision...likelihood ratio test (ALRT). We begin this classification problem by finding the size of the spreading matrix that generated the DS - CDMA signal. As...Theoretical Background The classification of DS / CDMA signals should not be confused with the problem of multiuser detection. The multiuser detection deals

Display size effects in visual search: analyses of reaction time distributions as mixtures.

PubMed

Reynolds, Ann; Miller, Jeff

2009-05-01

In a reanalysis of data from Cousineau and Shiffrin (2004) and two new visual search experiments, we used a likelihood ratio test to examine the full distributions of reaction time (RT) for evidence that the display size effect is a mixture-type effect that occurs on only a proportion of trials, leaving RT in the remaining trials unaffected, as is predicted by serial self-terminating search models. Experiment 1 was a reanalysis of Cousineau and Shiffrin's data, for which a mixture effect had previously been established by a bimodal distribution of RTs, and the results confirmed that the likelihood ratio test could also detect this mixture. Experiment 2 applied the likelihood ratio test within a more standard visual search task with a relatively easy target/distractor discrimination, and Experiment 3 applied it within a target identification search task within the same types of stimuli. Neither of these experiments provided any evidence for the mixture-type display size effect predicted by serial self-terminating search models. Overall, these results suggest that serial self-terminating search models may generally be applicable only with relatively difficult target/distractor discriminations, and then only for some participants. In addition, they further illustrate the utility of analysing full RT distributions in addition to mean RT.

Transperineal ultrasound compared to evacuation proctography for diagnosing enteroceles and intussusceptions.

PubMed

Weemhoff, M; Kluivers, K B; Govaert, B; Evers, J L H; Kessels, A G H; Baeten, C G

2013-03-01

This study concerns the level of agreement between transperineal ultrasound and evacuation proctography for diagnosing enteroceles and intussusceptions. In a prospective observational study, 50 consecutive women who were planned to have an evacuation proctography underwent transperineal ultrasound too. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive value, as well as the positive and negative likelihood ratio of transperineal ultrasound were assessed in comparison to evacuation proctography. To determine the interobserver agreement of transperineal ultrasound, the quadratic weighted kappa was calculated. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to show the diagnostic capability of transperineal ultrasound. For diagnosing intussusceptions (PPV 1.00), a positive finding on transperineal ultrasound was predictive of an abnormal evacuation proctography. Sensitivity of transperineal ultrasound was poor for intussusceptions (0.25). For diagnosing enteroceles, the positive likelihood ratio was 2.10 and the negative likelihood ratio, 0.85. There are many false-positive findings of enteroceles on ultrasonography (PPV 0.29). The interobserver agreement of the two ultrasonographers assessed as the quadratic weighted kappa of diagnosing enteroceles was 0.44 and that of diagnosing intussusceptions was 0.23. An intussusception on ultrasound is predictive of an abnormal evacuation proctography. For diagnosing enteroceles, the diagnostic quality of transperineal ultrasound was limited compared to evacuation proctography.

The Diagnostic Value of Capillary Refill Time for Detecting Serious Illness in Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Fleming, Susannah; Gill, Peter; Jones, Caroline; Taylor, James A.; Van den Bruel, Ann; Heneghan, Carl; Roberts, Nia; Thompson, Matthew

2015-01-01

Importance Capillary refill time (CRT) is widely recommended as part of the routine assessment of unwell children. Objective To determine the diagnostic value of capillary refill time for a range of serious outcomes in children. Methods We searched Medline, Embase and CINAHL from inception to June 2014. We included studies that measured both capillary refill time and a relevant clinical outcome such as mortality, dehydration, meningitis, or other serious illnesses in children aged up to 18 years of age. We screened 1,265 references, of which 24 papers were included in this review. Where sufficient studies were available, we conducted meta-analysis and constructed hierarchical summary ROC curves. Results Meta-analysis on the relationship between capillary refill time and mortality resulted in sensitivity of 34.6% (95% CI 23.9 to 47.1%), specificity 92.3% (88.6 to 94.8%), positive likelihood ratio 4.49 (3.06 to 6.57), and negative likelihood ratio 0.71 (0.60 to 0.84). Studies of children attending Emergency Departments with vomiting and diarrhea showed that capillary refill time had specificity of 89 to 94% for identifying 5% dehydration, but sensitivity ranged from 0 to 94%. This level of heterogeneity precluded formal meta-analysis of this outcome. Meta-analysis was not possible for other outcomes due to insufficient data, but we found consistently high specificity for a range of outcomes including meningitis, sepsis, admission to hospital, hypoxia, severity of illness and dengue. Conclusions Our results show that capillary refill time is a specific sign, indicating that it can be used as a “red-flag”: children with prolonged capillary refill time have a four-fold risk of dying compared to children with normal capillary refill time. The low sensitivity means that a normal capillary refill time should not reassure clinicians. PMID:26375953

A LANDSAT study of ephemeral and perennial rangeland vegetation and soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bentley, R. G., Jr. (Principal Investigator); Salmon-Drexler, B. C.; Bonner, W. J.; Vincent, R. K.

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Several methods of computer processing were applied to LANDSAT data for mapping vegetation characteristics of perennial rangeland in Montana and ephemeral rangeland in Arizona. The choice of optimal processing technique was dependent on prescribed mapping and site condition. Single channel level slicing and ratioing of channels were used for simple enhancement. Predictive models for mapping percent vegetation cover based on data from field spectra and LANDSAT data were generated by multiple linear regression of six unique LANDSAT spectral ratios. Ratio gating logic and maximum likelihood classification were applied successfully to recognize plant communities in Montana. Maximum likelihood classification did little to improve recognition of terrain features when compared to a single channel density slice in sparsely vegetated Arizona. LANDSAT was found to be more sensitive to differences between plant communities based on percentages of vigorous vegetation than to actual physical or spectral differences among plant species.

Prediction of miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy-A systematic review and diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pillai, Rekha N; Konje, Justin C; Richardson, Matthew; Tincello, Douglas G; Potdar, Neelam

2018-01-01

Both ultrasound and biochemical markers either alone or in combination have been described in the literature for the prediction of miscarriage. We performed this systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the best combination of biochemical, ultrasound and demographic markers to predict miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy. The electronic database search included Medline (1946-June 2017), Embase (1980-June 2017), CINAHL (1981-June 2017) and Cochrane library. Key MESH and Boolean terms were used for the search. Data extraction and collection was performed based on the eligibility criteria by two authors independently. Quality assessment of the individual studies was done using QUADAS 2 (Quality Assessment for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2: A Revised Tool) and statistical analysis performed using the Cochrane systematic review manager 5.3 and STATA vs.13.0. Due to the diversity of the combinations used for prediction in the included papers it was not possible to perform a meta-analysis on combination markers. Therefore, we proceeded to perform a meta-analysis on ultrasound markers alone to determine the best marker that can help to improve the diagnostic accuracy of predicting miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy. The systematic review identified 18 eligible studies for the quantitative meta-analysis with a total of 5584 women. Among the ultrasound scan markers, fetal bradycardia (n=10 studies, n=1762 women) on hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic showed sensitivity of 68.41%, specificity of 97.84%, positive likelihood ratio of 31.73 (indicating a large effect on increasing the probability of predicting miscarriage) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.32. In studies for women with threatened miscarriage (n=5 studies, n=771 women) fetal bradycardia showed further increase in sensitivity (84.18%) for miscarriage prediction. Although there is gestational age dependent variation in the fetal heart rate, a plot of fetal heart rate cut off level versus log diagnostic odds ratio showed that at ≤110 beat per minutes the diagnostic power to predict miscarriage is higher. Other markers of intra uterine hematoma, crown rump length and yolk sac had significantly decreased predictive value. Therefore in women with threatened miscarriage and presence of fetal bradycardia on ultrasound scan, there is a role for offering repeat ultrasound scan in a week to ten days interval. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Role of non-contrast balanced steady-state free precession megnetic resonance angiography compared to contrast-enhanced megnetic resonance angiography in diagnosing renal artery stenosis: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tao, Weijing; Shen, Yang; Guo, Lili; Bo, Genji

2014-01-01

Balanced steady-state free precession MR angiography (b-SSFP MRA) has shown great promise in diagnosing renal artery stenosis (RAS) as a non-contrast MR angiography (NC-MRA) method. However, results from related studies are inconsistent. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to assess the accuracy of b-SSFP MRA compared to contrast-enhanced MR angiography (CE-MRA) in diagnosing RAS. English and Chinese studies that were published prior to September 4, 2013 and that assessed b-SSFP MRA diagnostic performance in RAS patients were reviewed. Quality of the literature was assessed independently by two observers. The statistical analysis was adopted by the software of Meta-Disc version 1.4. Using the heterogeneity test, a statistical effect model was chosen to calculate different pooled weighted values. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) space and Spearman correlation coefficient were to explore threshold effect. Sensitivity analysis and the publication bias were performed to demonstrate if the pooled estimates were stable and reliable. We produced forest plots to calculate the pooled values and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and constructed a summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) to calculate the area under the curve (AUC). A total of 10 high quality articles were used in this meta-analysis. The studies showed a high degree of heterogeneity. The "shoulder-arm" shape in the ROC plot and the Spearman correlation coefficient between the log(SEN) and log(1-SPE) suggested that there was a threshold effect. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the actual combined effect size was equal to the theoretical combined effect size. The publication bias was low after quality evaluation of the literature and the construction of a funnel plot. The pooled sensitivity was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91) and pooled specificity was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93-0.95); pooled PLR was 14.57 (95% CI, 9.78-21.71]) and pooled NLR was 0.15 (95% CI, 0.11-0.20). The AUC was 0.964 3. In contrast to CE-MRA, the b-SSFP MRA is more accurate in diagnosing RAS, and may be able to replace other diagnostic methods in patients with renal insufficiency.

Can We Rule Out Meningitis from Negative Jolt Accentuation? A Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Sato, Ryota; Kuriyama, Akira; Luthe, Sarah Kyuragi

2017-04-01

Jolt accentuation has been considered to be the most sensitive physical finding to predict meningitis. However, there are only a few studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of jolt accentuation. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of jolt accentuation and investigate whether it can be extended to patients with mild altered mental status. We performed a single center, retrospective observational study on patients who presented to the emergency department in a Japanese tertiary care center from January 1, 2010 to March 31, 2016. Jolt accentuation evaluated in patients with fever, headache, and mild altered mental status with Glasgow Coma Scale no lower than E2 or M4 was defined as "jolt accentuation in the broad sense." Jolt accentuation evaluated in patients with fever, headache, and no altered mental status was defined as "jolt accentuation in the narrow sense." We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity in both groups. Among 118 patients, the sensitivity and specificity of jolt accentuation in the broad sense were 70.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 58.0%-80.8%) and 36.7% (95% CI: 25.6%-49.3%). The positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 1.12 (95% CI: 0.87-1.44) and 0.80 (95% CI: 0.48-1.34), respectively. Among 108 patients, the sensitivity and specificity of jot accentuation in the narrow sense were 75.0% (95% CI: 61.8%-84.8%) and 35.1% (95% CI: 24.0%-48.0%). The positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 1.16 (95% CI: 0.90-1.48) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.40-1.28), respectively. Jolt accentuation itself has a limited value in the diagnosis of meningitis regardless of altered mental status. Therefore, meningitis should not be ruled out by negative jolt accentuation. © 2017 American Headache Society.

Concurrent Associations of Physical Activity and Screen-Based Sedentary Behavior on Obesity Among US Adolescents: A Latent Class Analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Youngdeok; Barreira, Tiago V; Kang, Minsoo

2016-01-01

Independent associations of physical activity (PA) and sedentary behavior (SB) with obesity are well documented. However, little is known about the combined associations of these behaviors with obesity in adolescents. The present study examines the prevalence of concurrent levels of PA and SB, and their associations with obesity among US adolescents. Data from a total of 12 081 adolescents who participated in the Youth Risk Behaviors Survey during 2012-2013 were analyzed. A latent class analysis was performed to identify latent subgroups with varying combined levels of subjectively measured PA and screen-based SB. Follow-up analysis examined the changes in the likelihood of being obese as determined by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Growth Chart between latent subgroups. Four latent subgroups with varying combined levels of PA and SB were identified across gender. The likelihood of being obese was significantly greater for the subgroups featuring either or both Low PA or High SB when compared with High PA/Low SB across genders (odds ratio [OR] ranges, 2.1-2.7 for males and 9.6-23.5 for females). Low PA/High SB showed the greater likelihood of being obese compared to subgroups featuring either or both High PA and Low SB (OR ranges, 2.2-23.5) for female adolescents only. The findings imply that promoting sufficient levels of PA while reducing SB should be encouraged in order to reduce obesity risk among adolescents, particularly for males. The risk of obesity for female adolescents can be reduced by engaging in either high levels of PA or low levels of SB.

Diagnostic accuracy of liver fibrosis based on red cell distribution width (RDW) to platelet ratio with fibroscan in chronic hepatitis B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembiring, J.; Jones, F.

2018-03-01

Red cell Distribution Width (RDW) and platelet ratio (RPR) can predict liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B with relatively high accuracy. RPR was superior to other non-invasive methods to predict liver fibrosis, such as AST and ALT ratio, AST and platelet ratio Index and FIB-4. The aim of this study was to assess diagnostic accuracy liver fibrosis by using RDW and platelets ratio in chronic hepatitis B patients based on compared with Fibroscan. This cross-sectional study was conducted at Adam Malik Hospital from January-June 2015. We examine 34 patients hepatitis B chronic, screen RDW, platelet, and fibroscan. Data were statistically analyzed. The result RPR with ROC procedure has an accuracy of 72.3% (95% CI: 84.1% - 97%). In this study, the RPR had a moderate ability to predict fibrosis degree (p = 0.029 with AUC> 70%). The cutoff value RPR was 0.0591, sensitivity and spesificity were 71.4% and 60%, Positive Prediction Value (PPV) was 55.6% and Negative Predictions Value (NPV) was 75%, positive likelihood ratio was 1.79 and negative likelihood ratio was 0.48. RPR have the ability to predict the degree of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients with moderate accuracy.

Validation of the portable Air-Smart Spirometer

PubMed Central

Núñez Fernández, Marta; Pallares Sanmartín, Abel; Mouronte Roibas, Cecilia; Cerdeira Domínguez, Luz; Botana Rial, Maria Isabel; Blanco Cid, Nagore; Fernández Villar, Alberto

2018-01-01

Background The Air-Smart Spirometer is the first portable device accepted by the European Community (EC) that performs spirometric measurements by a turbine mechanism and displays the results on a smartphone or a tablet. Methods In this multicenter, descriptive and cross-sectional prospective study carried out in 2 hospital centers, we compare FEV1, FVC, FEV1/FVC ratio measured with the Air Smart-Spirometer device and a conventional spirometer, and analyze the ability of this new portable device to detect obstructions. Patients were included for 2 consecutive months. We calculate sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) and likelihood ratio (LR +, LR-) as well as the Kappa Index to evaluate the concordance between the two devices for the detection of obstruction. The agreement and relation between the values of FEV1 and FVC in absolute value and the FEV1/FVC ratio measured by both devices were analyzed by calculating the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) respectively. Results 200 patients (100 from each center) were included with a mean age of 57 (± 14) years, 110 were men (55%). Obstruction was detected by conventional spirometry in 73 patients (40.1%). Using a FEV1/FVC ratio smaller than 0.7 to detect obstruction with the Air Smart-Spirometer, the kappa index was 0.88, sensitivity (90.4%), specificity (97.2%), PPV (95.7%), NPV (93.7%), positive likelihood ratio (32.29), and negative likelihood ratio (0.10). The ICC and r between FEV1, FVC, and FEV1 / FVC ratio measured by the Air Smart Spirometer and the conventional spirometer were all higher than 0.94. Conclusion The Air-Smart Spirometer is a simple and very precise instrument for detecting obstructive airway diseases. It is easy to use, which could make it especially useful non-specialized care and in other areas. PMID:29474502

Land use/land cover mapping (1:25000) of Taiwan, Republic of China by automated multispectral interpretation of LANDSAT imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sung, Q. C.; Miller, L. D.

1977-01-01

Three methods were tested for collection of the training sets needed to establish the spectral signatures of the land uses/land covers sought due to the difficulties of retrospective collection of representative ground control data. Computer preprocessing techniques applied to the digital images to improve the final classification results were geometric corrections, spectral band or image ratioing and statistical cleaning of the representative training sets. A minimal level of statistical verification was made based upon the comparisons between the airphoto estimates and the classification results. The verifications provided a further support to the selection of MSS band 5 and 7. It also indicated that the maximum likelihood ratioing technique can achieve more agreeable classification results with the airphoto estimates than the stepwise discriminant analysis.

Neutron Tomography of a Fuel Cell: Statistical Learning Implementation of a Penalized Likelihood Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coakley, Kevin J.; Vecchia, Dominic F.; Hussey, Daniel S.; Jacobson, David L.

2013-10-01

At the NIST Neutron Imaging Facility, we collect neutron projection data for both the dry and wet states of a Proton-Exchange-Membrane (PEM) fuel cell. Transmitted thermal neutrons captured in a scintillator doped with lithium-6 produce scintillation light that is detected by an amorphous silicon detector. Based on joint analysis of the dry and wet state projection data, we reconstruct a residual neutron attenuation image with a Penalized Likelihood method with an edge-preserving Huber penalty function that has two parameters that control how well jumps in the reconstruction are preserved and how well noisy fluctuations are smoothed out. The choice of these parameters greatly influences the resulting reconstruction. We present a data-driven method that objectively selects these parameters, and study its performance for both simulated and experimental data. Before reconstruction, we transform the projection data so that the variance-to-mean ratio is approximately one. For both simulated and measured projection data, the Penalized Likelihood method reconstruction is visually sharper than a reconstruction yielded by a standard Filtered Back Projection method. In an idealized simulation experiment, we demonstrate that the cross validation procedure selects regularization parameters that yield a reconstruction that is nearly optimal according to a root-mean-square prediction error criterion.

Parkinson's disease: a population-based investigation of life satisfaction and employment.

PubMed

Gustafsson, Helena; Nordström, Peter; Stråhle, Stefan; Nordström, Anna

2015-01-01

To investigate relationships between individuals' socioeconomic situations and quality of life in working-aged subjects with Parkinson's disease. A population-based cohort comprising 1,432 people with Parkinson's disease and 1,135 matched controls, who responded to a questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with life satisfaction and likelihood of employment. In multivariate analyses, Parkinson's disease was associated with an increased risk of dissatisfaction with life (odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 4.2-7.1) and reduced likelihood of employment (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.25-0.37). Employers' support was associated with greater likelihood of employment (p < 0.001). Twenty-four percent of people with Parkinson's disease for ≥ 10 years remained employed and 6% worked full-time. People with Parkinson's disease also more frequently experienced work demands that exceeded their capacity; this factor and unemployment independently correlated with greater risk of dissatisfaction with life (both p < 0.05). People with Parkinson's disease have an increased risk of dissatisfaction with life. Employment situation is important for general life satisfaction among working-aged individuals. People with Parkinson's disease appear to find it difficult to meet the challenge of achieving a balanced employment situation.

Integration within the Felsenstein equation for improved Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in population genetics

PubMed Central

Hey, Jody; Nielsen, Rasmus

2007-01-01

In 1988, Felsenstein described a framework for assessing the likelihood of a genetic data set in which all of the possible genealogical histories of the data are considered, each in proportion to their probability. Although not analytically solvable, several approaches, including Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, have been developed to find approximate solutions. Here, we describe an approach in which Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations are used to integrate over the space of genealogies, whereas other parameters are integrated out analytically. The result is an approximation to the full joint posterior density of the model parameters. For many purposes, this function can be treated as a likelihood, thereby permitting likelihood-based analyses, including likelihood ratio tests of nested models. Several examples, including an application to the divergence of chimpanzee subspecies, are provided. PMID:17301231

Quantitative analysis of enhanced malignant and benign lesions on contrast-enhanced spectral mammography.

PubMed

Deng, Chih-Ying; Juan, Yu-Hsiang; Cheung, Yun-Chung; Lin, Yu-Ching; Lo, Yung-Feng; Lin, GiGin; Chen, Shin-Cheh; Ng, Shu-Hang

2018-02-27

To retrospectively analyze the quantitative measurement and kinetic enhancement among pathologically proven benign and malignant lesions using contrast-enhanced spectral mammography (CESM). We investigated the differences in enhancement between 44 benign and 108 malignant breast lesions in CESM, quantifying the extent of enhancements and the relative enhancements between early (between 2-3 min after contrast medium injection) and late (3-6 min) phases. The enhancement was statistically stronger in malignancies compared to benign lesions, with good performance by the receiver operating characteristic curve [0.877, 95% confidence interval (0.813-0.941)]. Using optimal cut-off value at 220.94 according to Youden index, the sensitivity was 75.9%, specificity 88.6%, positive likelihood ratio 6.681, negative likelihood ratio 0.272 and accuracy 82.3%. The relative enhancement patterns of benign and malignant lesions, showing 29.92 vs 73.08% in the elevated pattern, 7.14 vs 92.86% in the steady pattern, 5.71 vs 94.29% in the depressed pattern, and 80.00 vs 20.00% in non-enhanced lesions (p < 0.0001), respectively. Despite variations in the degree of tumour angiogenesis, quantitative analysis of the breast lesions on CESM documented the malignancies had distinctive stronger enhancement and depressed relative enhancement patterns than benign lesions. Advances in knowledge: To our knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the feasibility of quantifying lesion enhancement on CESM. The quantities of enhancement were informative for assessing breast lesions in which the malignancies had stronger enhancement and more relative depressed enhancement than the benign lesions.

A Multiyear Assessment of Public Response to a Statewide Drug Take-Back and Disposal Campaign, 2010 to 2012.

PubMed

Yanovitzky, Itzhak

2017-08-01

This study is the first to analyze public response to a drug take-back program, the American Medicine Chest Challenge, in a single state over a period of 3 years (2010-2012). The study utilized a three-wave repeated cross-sectional design and an annual phone survey conducted with a representative sample of adults ( N = 906 in 2010, N = 907 in 2011, and N = 906 in 2012), which assessed exposure to the campaign, drug disposal behaviors, possible mediators of campaign effects (risk appraisal, personal agency, normative influence, and interpersonal talk), and potential confounders. Logistic regression and causal mediation analysis were employed to estimate confounder-adjusted direct and mediated effects of the campaign. Results showed that the campaign reached a sizable portion (50% to 60%) of state adults and that campaign exposure was associated with increased likelihood of having conversations with others about this topic. About 55% of all adults in the state reported taking at least one of the actions recommended by the campaign, and campaign exposure was associated with increased likelihood of disposing of prescription drugs at a drug collection day event (adjusted odds ratio = 4) and of talking to a child about the risks associated with prescription drug abuse (adjusted odds ratio = 2). The causal mediation analysis demonstrated that the campaign influenced audiences by reinforcing their efficacy to safely dispose of prescription drugs, but also potentially by stimulating conversations among community members about this topic. Drug take-back campaigns can be an effective mechanism to decrease the availability of prescription drugs in communities.

A likelihood ratio-based method to predict exact pedigrees for complex families from next-generation sequencing data.

PubMed

Heinrich, Verena; Kamphans, Tom; Mundlos, Stefan; Robinson, Peter N; Krawitz, Peter M

2017-01-01

Next generation sequencing technology considerably changed the way we screen for pathogenic mutations in rare Mendelian disorders. However, the identification of the disease-causing mutation amongst thousands of variants of partly unknown relevance is still challenging and efficient techniques that reduce the genomic search space play a decisive role. Often segregation- or linkage analysis are used to prioritize candidates, however, these approaches require correct information about the degree of relationship among the sequenced samples. For quality assurance an automated control of pedigree structures and sample assignment is therefore highly desirable in order to detect label mix-ups that might otherwise corrupt downstream analysis. We developed an algorithm based on likelihood ratios that discriminates between different classes of relationship for an arbitrary number of genotyped samples. By identifying the most likely class we are able to reconstruct entire pedigrees iteratively, even for highly consanguineous families. We tested our approach on exome data of different sequencing studies and achieved high precision for all pedigree predictions. By analyzing the precision for varying degrees of relatedness or inbreeding we could show that a prediction is robust down to magnitudes of a few hundred loci. A java standalone application that computes the relationships between multiple samples as well as a Rscript that visualizes the pedigree information is available for download as well as a web service at www.gene-talk.de CONTACT: heinrich@molgen.mpg.deSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

A likelihood ratio-based method to predict exact pedigrees for complex families from next-generation sequencing data

PubMed Central

Kamphans, Tom; Mundlos, Stefan; Robinson, Peter N.; Krawitz, Peter M.

2017-01-01

Motivation: Next generation sequencing technology considerably changed the way we screen for pathogenic mutations in rare Mendelian disorders. However, the identification of the disease-causing mutation amongst thousands of variants of partly unknown relevance is still challenging and efficient techniques that reduce the genomic search space play a decisive role. Often segregation- or linkage analysis are used to prioritize candidates, however, these approaches require correct information about the degree of relationship among the sequenced samples. For quality assurance an automated control of pedigree structures and sample assignment is therefore highly desirable in order to detect label mix-ups that might otherwise corrupt downstream analysis. Results: We developed an algorithm based on likelihood ratios that discriminates between different classes of relationship for an arbitrary number of genotyped samples. By identifying the most likely class we are able to reconstruct entire pedigrees iteratively, even for highly consanguineous families. We tested our approach on exome data of different sequencing studies and achieved high precision for all pedigree predictions. By analyzing the precision for varying degrees of relatedness or inbreeding we could show that a prediction is robust down to magnitudes of a few hundred loci. Availability and Implementation: A java standalone application that computes the relationships between multiple samples as well as a Rscript that visualizes the pedigree information is available for download as well as a web service at www.gene-talk.de. Contact: heinrich@molgen.mpg.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27565584

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin protein as a biomarker in the diagnosis of breast cancer: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

WANG, YU; ZENG, TINGTING

2013-01-01

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) has been thought to play an important role in breast cancer tumorigenesis and progression. Various studies have focused on the association between NGAL and breast cancer. The aim of this meta-analysis was to establish the overall accuracy of the NGAL test in the diagnosis of breast cancer. A comprehensive search of the literature was conducted using PubMed, OVID, ScienceDirect and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases, and our screening covered all published papers until November 2012. The relevant papers were selected according to stringent inclusion criteria. Essential data were abstracted from the included papers and further analysed by a systematic meta-analysis. The present meta-analysis included four study papers. The summary estimate was 64% (95% CI, 0.59–0.69) for sensitivity and 87% (95% CI, 0.81–0.92) for specificity. The positive likelihood (PLR), negative likelihood (NLR) and diagnostic odds (DOR) ratios were 5.63 (95% CI, 3.63–8.74), 0.32 (95% CI, 0.14–0.71) and 18.02 (95% CI, 9.84–32.98), respectively. The area under the summary ROC curve (AUC) for the diagnosis of breast cancer was 0.9008. Thus, NGAL is a potential biomarker for the diagnosis of breast cancer. PMID:24648972

Determining the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.; Klein, Vladislav

1994-01-01

An important part of building high fidelity mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of the accuracy of parameter estimates, the estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression based on theoretical analysis was developed to properly compute parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood estimates with colored residuals. This result is important because experience from the analysis of measured data reveals that the residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Simulated data runs were used to show that the parameter accuracy measures computed with this technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for analysis of the output residuals in the frequency domain or heuristically determined multiplication factors. The result is general, although the application studied here is maximum likelihood estimation of aerodynamic model parameters from flight test data.

Extended maximum likelihood halo-independent analysis of dark matter direct detection data

DOE PAGES

Gelmini, Graciela B.; Georgescu, Andreea; Gondolo, Paolo; ...

2015-11-24

We extend and correct a recently proposed maximum-likelihood halo-independent method to analyze unbinned direct dark matter detection data. Instead of the recoil energy as independent variable we use the minimum speed a dark matter particle must have to impart a given recoil energy to a nucleus. This has the advantage of allowing us to apply the method to any type of target composition and interaction, e.g. with general momentum and velocity dependence, and with elastic or inelastic scattering. We prove the method and provide a rigorous statistical interpretation of the results. As first applications, we find that for dark mattermore » particles with elastic spin-independent interactions and neutron to proton coupling ratio f n/f p=-0.7, the WIMP interpretation of the signal observed by CDMS-II-Si is compatible with the constraints imposed by all other experiments with null results. We also find a similar compatibility for exothermic inelastic spin-independent interactions with f n/f p=-0.8.« less

Robustness of fit indices to outliers and leverage observations in structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Zhong, Xiaoling

2013-06-01

Normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is the most widely used method in structural equation modeling (SEM), although practical data tend to be nonnormally distributed. The effect of nonnormally distributed data or data contamination on the normal-distribution-based likelihood ratio (LR) statistic is well understood due to many analytical and empirical studies. In SEM, fit indices are used as widely as the LR statistic. In addition to NML, robust procedures have been developed for more efficient and less biased parameter estimates with practical data. This article studies the effect of outliers and leverage observations on fit indices following NML and two robust methods. Analysis and empirical results indicate that good leverage observations following NML and one of the robust methods lead most fit indices to give more support to the substantive model. While outliers tend to make a good model superficially bad according to many fit indices following NML, they have little effect on those following the two robust procedures. Implications of the results to data analysis are discussed, and recommendations are provided regarding the use of estimation methods and interpretation of fit indices. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Utility of shear wave elastography to detect papillary thyroid carcinoma in thyroid nodules: efficacy of the standard deviation elasticity.

PubMed

Kim, Hye Jeong; Kwak, Mi Kyung; Choi, In Ho; Jin, So-Young; Park, Hyeong Kyu; Byun, Dong Won; Suh, Kyoil; Yoo, Myung Hi

2018-02-23

The aim of this study was to address the role of the elasticity index as a possible predictive marker for detecting papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and quantitatively assess shear wave elastography (SWE) as a tool for differentiating PTC from benign thyroid nodules. One hundred and nineteen patients with thyroid nodules undergoing SWE before ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration and core needle biopsy were analyzed. The mean (EMean), minimum (EMin), maximum (EMax), and standard deviation (ESD) of SWE elasticity indices were measured. Among 105 nodules, 14 were PTC and 91 were benign. The EMean, EMin, and EMax values were significantly higher in PTCs than benign nodules (EMean 37.4 in PTC vs. 23.7 in benign nodules, p = 0.005; EMin 27.9 vs. 17.8, p = 0.034; EMax 46.7 vs. 31.5, p < 0.001). The EMean, EMin, and EMax were significantly associated with PTC with diagnostic odds ratios varying from 6.74 to 9.91, high specificities (86.4%, 86.4%, and 88.1%, respectively), and positive likelihood ratios (4.21, 3.69, and 4.82, respectively). The ESD values were significantly higher in PTC than in benign nodules (6.3 vs. 2.6, p < 0.001). ESD had the highest specificity (96.6%) when applied with a cut-off value of 6.5 kPa. It had a positive likelihood ratio of 14.75 and a diagnostic odds ratio of 28.50. The shear elasticity index of ESD, with higher likelihood ratios for PTC, will probably identify nodules that have a high potential for malignancy. It may help to identify and select malignant nodules, while reducing unnecessary fine needle aspiration and core needle biopsies of benign nodules.

Orthogonal series generalized likelihood ratio test for failure detection and isolation. [for aircraft control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Steven R.; Walker, Bruce K.

1990-01-01

A new failure detection and isolation algorithm for linear dynamic systems is presented. This algorithm, the Orthogonal Series Generalized Likelihood Ratio (OSGLR) test, is based on the assumption that the failure modes of interest can be represented by truncated series expansions. This assumption leads to a failure detection algorithm with several desirable properties. Computer simulation results are presented for the detection of the failures of actuators and sensors of a C-130 aircraft. The results show that the OSGLR test generally performs as well as the GLR test in terms of time to detect a failure and is more robust to failure mode uncertainty. However, the OSGLR test is also somewhat more sensitive to modeling errors than the GLR test.

Cosmic shear measurement with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Alex; Taylor, Andy

2017-06-01

We investigate the problem of noise bias in maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators for cosmic shear. We derive the leading and next-to-leading order biases and compute them in the context of galaxy ellipticity measurements, extending previous work on maximum likelihood inference for weak lensing. We show that a large part of the bias on these point estimators can be removed using information already contained in the likelihood when a galaxy model is specified, without the need for external calibration. We test these bias-corrected estimators on simulated galaxy images similar to those expected from planned space-based weak lensing surveys, with promising results. We find that the introduction of an intrinsic shape prior can help with mitigation of noise bias, such that the maximum a posteriori estimate can be made less biased than the maximum likelihood estimate. Second-order terms offer a check on the convergence of the estimators, but are largely subdominant. We show how biases propagate to shear estimates, demonstrating in our simple set-up that shear biases can be reduced by orders of magnitude and potentially to within the requirements of planned space-based surveys at mild signal-to-noise ratio. We find that second-order terms can exhibit significant cancellations at low signal-to-noise ratio when Gaussian noise is assumed, which has implications for inferring the performance of shear-measurement algorithms from simplified simulations. We discuss the viability of our point estimators as tools for lensing inference, arguing that they allow for the robust measurement of ellipticity and shear.

Determining an anthropometric surrogate measure for identifying low birth weight babies in Uganda: a hospital-based cross sectional study.

PubMed

Elizabeth, Nabiwemba L; Christopher, Orach Garimoi; Patrick, Kolsteren

2013-04-12

Achieving Millennium Development Goal 4 is dependent on significantly reducing neonatal mortality. Low birth weight is an underlying factor in most neonatal deaths. In developing countries the missed opportunity for providing life saving care is mainly a result of failure to identify low birth weight newborns. This study aimed at identifying a reliable anthropometric measurement for screening low birth weight and determining an operational cut-off point in the Uganda setting. This simple measurement is required because of lack of weighing scales in the community, and sometimes in the health facilities. This was a hospital-based cross-sectional study. Two midwives weighed 706 newborns and measured their foot length, head, chest, thigh and mid-upper arm circumferences within 24 hours after birth.Data was analysed using STATA version 10.0. Correlation with birth weight using Pearson's correlation coefficient and Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analysis were done to determine the measure that best predicts birth weight. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for a range of measures to obtain operational cut-off points; and Likelihood Ratios and Diagnostic Odds Ratio were determined for each cut-off point. Birth weights ranged from 1370-5350 grams with a mean of 3050 grams (SD 0.53) and 85 (12%) babies weighed less than 2500 grams. All anthropometric measurements had a positive correlation with birth weight, with foot length showing the strongest (r = 0.76) and thigh circumference the weakest (r = 0.62) correlations. Foot length had the highest predictive value for low birth weight (AUC = 0.97) followed by mid-upper arm circumference (AUC = 0.94). Foot length and chest circumference had the highest sensitivity (94%) and specificity (90%) respectively for screening low birth weight babies at the selected cut-off points. Chest circumference had a significantly higher positive likelihood ratio (8.7) than any other measure, and foot length had the lowest negative likelihood ratio. Chest circumference and foot length had diagnostic odds ratios of 97% and 77% respectively. Foot length was easier to measure and it involved minimal exposure of the baby to cold. A cut-off of foot length 7.9 cm had sensitivity of 94% and specificity of 83% for predicting low birth weight. This study suggests foot length as the most appropriate predictor for low birth weight in comparison to chest, head, mid-upper arm and thigh circumference in the Uganda setting. Use of low cost and easy to use tools to identify low birth weight babies by village health teams could support community efforts to save newborns.

Excess maternal transmission of markers in TCOF1 among cleft palate case-parent trios from three populations.

PubMed

Sull, Jae Woong; Liang, Kung-Yee; Hetmanski, Jacqueline B; Fallin, M Daniele; Ingersoll, Roxanne G; Park, Ji Wan; Wu-Chou, Yah-Huei; Chen, Philip K; Chong, Samuel S; Cheah, Felicia; Yeow, Vincent; Park, Beyoung Yun; Jee, Sun Ha; Jabs, Ethylin W; Redett, Richard; Scott, Alan F; Beaty, Terri H

2008-09-15

Isolated cleft palate is among the most common human birth defects. The TCOF1 gene has been suggested as a candidate gene for cleft palate based on animal models. This study tests for association between markers in TCOF1 and isolated, nonsyndromic cleft palate using a case-parent trio design considering parent-of-origin effects. Case-parent trios from three populations (comprising a total of 81 case-parent trios) were genotyped for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the TCOF1 gene. We used the transmission disequilibrium test and the transmission asymmetry test on individual SNPs. When all trios were combined, the odds ratio for transmission of the minor allele, OR(transmission), was significant for SNP rs15251 (OR = 2.88, P = 0.007), as well as rs2255796 and rs2569062 (OR = 2.08, P = 0.03; OR = 2.43, P = 0.041; respectively) when parent of origin was not considered. The transmission asymmetry test also revealed one SNP (rs15251) showing excess maternal transmission significant at the P = 0.005 level (OR = 6.50). Parent-of-origin effects were assessed using the parent-of-origin likelihood ratio test on both SNPs and haplotypes. While the parent-of-origin likelihood ratio test was only marginally significant for this SNP (P = 0.136), analysis of haplotypes of rs2255796 and rs15251 suggested excess maternal transmission. Therefore, these data suggest TCOF1 may influence risk of cleft palate through a parent-of-origin effect. Copyright 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer.

PubMed

Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

2015-01-01

People's Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other inflammation-based prognostic scores. The present study indicates that preoperative GPS and TNM stage are robust predictors of gastric cancer survival as compared to NLR, PLR, PI, and PNI in patients undergoing tumor resection.

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

2015-01-01

Background People’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. Objective To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. Methods The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. Results In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other inflammation-based prognostic scores. Conclusion The present study indicates that preoperative GPS and TNM stage are robust predictors of gastric cancer survival as compared to NLR, PLR, PI, and PNI in patients undergoing tumor resection. PMID:26124667

Impact of neuraminidase inhibitors on influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-related pneumonia: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Muthuri, Stella G; Venkatesan, Sudhir; Myles, Puja R; Leonardi-Bee, Jo; Lim, Wei Shen; Al Mamun, Abdullah; Anovadiya, Ashish P; Araújo, Wildo N; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Báez, Clarisa; Bantar, Carlos; Barhoush, Mazen M; Bassetti, Matteo; Beovic, Bojana; Bingisser, Roland; Bonmarin, Isabelle; Borja-Aburto, Victor H; Cao, Bin; Carratala, Jordi; Cuezzo, María R; Denholm, Justin T; Dominguez, Samuel R; Duarte, Pericles A D; Dubnov-Raz, Gal; Echavarria, Marcela; Fanella, Sergio; Fraser, James; Gao, Zhancheng; Gérardin, Patrick; Giannella, Maddalena; Gubbels, Sophie; Herberg, Jethro; Higuera Iglesias, Anjarath L; Hoeger, Peter H; Hoffmann, Matthias; Hu, Xiaoyun; Islam, Quazi T; Jiménez, Mirela F; Kandeel, Amr; Keijzers, Gerben; Khalili, Hossein; Khandaker, Gulam; Knight, Marian; Kusznierz, Gabriela; Kuzman, Ilija; Kwan, Arthur M C; Lahlou Amine, Idriss; Langenegger, Eduard; Lankarani, Kamran B; Leo, Yee-Sin; Linko, Rita; Liu, Pei; Madanat, Faris; Manabe, Toshie; Mayo-Montero, Elga; McGeer, Allison; Memish, Ziad A; Metan, Gokhan; Mikić, Dragan; Mohn, Kristin G I; Moradi, Ahmadreza; Nymadawa, Pagbajabyn; Ozbay, Bulent; Ozkan, Mehpare; Parekh, Dhruv; Paul, Mical; Poeppl, Wolfgang; Polack, Fernando P; Rath, Barbara A; Rodríguez, Alejandro H; Siqueira, Marilda M; Skręt-Magierło, Joanna; Talarek, Ewa; Tang, Julian W; Torres, Antoni; Törün, Selda H; Tran, Dat; Uyeki, Timothy M; van Zwol, Annelies; Vaudry, Wendy; Velyvyte, Daiva; Vidmar, Tjasa; Zarogoulidis, Paul; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S

2016-05-01

The impact of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) on influenza-related pneumonia (IRP) is not established. Our objective was to investigate the association between NAI treatment and IRP incidence and outcomes in patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. A worldwide meta-analysis of individual participant data from 20 634 hospitalised patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 20 021) or clinically diagnosed (n = 613) 'pandemic influenza'. The primary outcome was radiologically confirmed IRP. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated using generalised linear mixed modelling, adjusting for NAI treatment propensity, antibiotics and corticosteroids. Of 20 634 included participants, 5978 (29·0%) had IRP; conversely, 3349 (16·2%) had confirmed the absence of radiographic pneumonia (the comparator). Early NAI treatment (within 2 days of symptom onset) versus no NAI was not significantly associated with IRP [adj. OR 0·83 (95% CI 0·64-1·06; P = 0·136)]. Among the 5978 patients with IRP, early NAI treatment versus none did not impact on mortality [adj. OR = 0·72 (0·44-1·17; P = 0·180)] or likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 1·17 (0·71-1·92; P = 0·537)], but early treatment versus later significantly reduced mortality [adj. OR = 0·70 (0·55-0·88; P = 0·003)] and likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 0·68 (0·54-0·85; P = 0·001)]. Early NAI treatment of patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection versus no treatment did not reduce the likelihood of IRP. However, in patients who developed IRP, early NAI treatment versus later reduced the likelihood of mortality and needing ventilatory support. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk factors for classical hysterotomy by gestational age.

PubMed

Osmundson, Sarah S; Garabedian, Matthew J; Lyell, Deirdre J

2013-10-01

To examine the likelihood of classical hysterotomy across preterm gestational ages and to identify factors that increase its occurrence. This is a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort collected by the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Network of all women with singleton gestations who underwent a cesarean delivery with a known hysterotomy. Comparisons were made based on gestational age. Factors thought to influence hysterotomy type were studied, including maternal age, body mass index, parity, birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA) status, fetal presentation, labor preceding delivery, and emergent delivery. Approximately 36,000 women were eligible for analysis, of whom 34,454 (95.7%) underwent low transverse hysterotomy and 1,562 (4.3%) underwent classical hysterotomy. The median gestational age of women undergoing a classical hysterotomy was 32 weeks and the incidence peaked between 24 0/7 weeks and 25 6/7 weeks (53.2%), declining with each additional week of gestation thereafter (P for trend <.001). In multivariable regression, the likelihood of classical hysterotomy was increased with SGA (n=258; odds ratio [OR] 2.71; confidence interval [CI] 1.78-4.13), birth weight 1,000 g or less (n=467; OR 1.51; CI 1.03-2.24), and noncephalic presentation (n=783; OR 2.03; CI 1.52-2.72). The likelihood of classical hysterotomy was decreased between 23 0/7 and 27 6/7 weeks of gestation and after 32 weeks of gestation when labor preceded delivery, and increased between 28 0/7 and 31 6/7 weeks of gestation and after 32 weeks of gestation by multiparity and previous cesarean delivery. Emergent delivery did not predict classical hysterotomy. Fifty percent of women at 23-26 weeks of gestation who undergo cesarean delivery have a classical hysterotomy, and the risk declines steadily thereafter. This likelihood is increased by fetal factors, especially SGA and noncephalic presentation. : II.

Childhood maternal care is associated with DNA methylation of the genes for brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and oxytocin receptor (OXTR) in peripheral blood cells in adult men and women.

PubMed

Unternaehrer, Eva; Meyer, Andrea Hans; Burkhardt, Susan C A; Dempster, Emma; Staehli, Simon; Theill, Nathan; Lieb, Roselind; Meinlschmidt, Gunther

2015-01-01

In adults, reporting low and high maternal care in childhood, we compared DNA methylation in two stress-associated genes (two target sequences in the oxytocin receptor gene, OXTR; one in the brain-derived neurotrophic factor gene, BDNF) in peripheral whole blood, in a cross-sectional study (University of Basel, Switzerland) during 2007-2008. We recruited 89 participants scoring < 27 (n = 47, 36 women) or > 33 (n = 42, 35 women) on the maternal care subscale of the Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI) at a previous assessment of a larger group (N = 709, range PBI maternal care = 0-36, age range = 19-66 years; median 24 years). 85 participants gave blood for DNA methylation analyses (Sequenom(R) EpiTYPER, San Diego, CA) and cell count (Sysmex PocH-100i™, Kobe, Japan). Mixed model statistical analysis showed greater DNA methylation in the low versus high maternal care group, in the BDNF target sequence [Likelihood-Ratio (1) = 4.47; p = 0.035] and in one OXTR target sequence Likelihood-Ratio (1) = 4.33; p = 0.037], but not the second OXTR target sequence [Likelihood-Ratio (1) < 0.001; p = 0.995). Mediation analyses indicated that differential blood cell count did not explain associations between low maternal care and BDNF (estimate = -0.005, 95% CI = -0.025 to 0.015; p = 0.626) or OXTR DNA methylation (estimate = -0.015, 95% CI = -0.038 to 0.008; p = 0.192). Hence, low maternal care in childhood was associated with greater DNA methylation in an OXTR and a BDNF target sequence in blood cells in adulthood. Although the study has limitations (cross-sectional, a wide age range, only three target sequences in two genes studied, small effects, uncertain relevance of changes in blood cells to gene methylation in brain), the findings may indicate components of the epiphenotype from early life stress.

Indocyanine Green Guided Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection: An Efficient Technique to Classify the Lymph Node Status of Patients with Prostate Cancer Who Underwent Radical Prostatectomy.

PubMed

Ramírez-Backhaus, Miguel; Mira Moreno, Alejandra; Gómez Ferrer, Alvaro; Calatrava Fons, Ana; Casanova, Juan; Solsona Narbón, Eduardo; Ortiz Rodríguez, Isabel María; Rubio Briones, José

2016-11-01

We evaluated the effectiveness of indocyanine green guided pelvic lymph node dissection for the optimal staging of prostate cancer and analyzed whether the technique could replace extended pelvic lymph node dissection. A solution of 25 mg indocyanine green in 5 ml sterile water was transperineally injected. Pelvic lymph node dissection was started with the indocyanine green stained nodes followed by extended pelvic lymph node dissection. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, predictive value and likelihood ratio of a negative test of indocyanine green guided pelvic lymph node dissection. A total of 84 patients with a median age of 63.55 years and a median prostate specific antigen of 8.48 ng/ml were included in the study. Of these patients 60.7% had intermediate risk disease and 25% had high or very high risk disease. A median of 7 indocyanine green stained nodes per patient was detected (range 2 to 18) with a median of 22 nodes excised during extended pelvic lymph node dissection. Lymph node metastasis was identified in 25 patients, 23 of whom had disease properly classified by indocyanine green guided pelvic lymph node dissection. The most frequent location of indocyanine green stained nodes was the proximal internal iliac artery followed by the fossa of Marcille. The negative predictive value was 96.7% and the likelihood ratio of a negative test was 8%. Overall 1,856 nodes were removed and 603 were stained indocyanine green. Pathological examination revealed 82 metastatic nodes, of which 60% were indocyanine green stained. The negative predictive value was 97.4% but the likelihood ratio of a negative test was 58.5%. Indocyanine green guided pelvic lymph node dissection correctly staged 97% of cases. However, according to our data it cannot replace extended pelvic lymph node dissection. Nevertheless, its high negative predictive value could allow us to avoid extended pelvic lymph node dissection if we had an accurate intraoperative lymph fluorescent analysis. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Thyroid Cancer Risk among Persons in Belarus Exposed as Children or Adolescents Due to the Chernobyl Accident.

PubMed

Little, Mark P; Kwon, Deukwoo; Zablotska, Lydia B; Brenner, Alina V; Cahoon, Elizabeth K; Rozhko, Alexander V; Polyanskaya, Olga N; Minenko, Victor F; Golovanov, Ivan; Bouville, André; Drozdovitch, Vladimir

2015-01-01

The excess incidence of thyroid cancer in Ukraine and Belarus observed a few years after the Chernobyl accident is considered to be largely the result of 131I released from the reactor. Although the Belarus thyroid cancer prevalence data has been previously analyzed, no account was taken of dose measurement error. We examined dose-response patterns in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 11,732 persons aged under 18 at the time of the accident, diagnosed during 1996-2004, who had direct thyroid 131I activity measurement, and were resident in the most radio-actively contaminated regions of Belarus. Three methods of dose-error correction (regression calibration, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) were applied. There was a statistically significant (p<0.001) increasing dose-response for prevalent thyroid cancer, irrespective of regression-adjustment method used. Without adjustment for dose errors the excess odds ratio was 1.51 Gy- (95% CI 0.53, 3.86), which was reduced by 13% when regression-calibration adjustment was used, 1.31 Gy- (95% CI 0.47, 3.31). A Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method yielded an excess odds ratio of 1.48 Gy- (95% CI 0.53, 3.87), about 2% lower than the unadjusted analysis. The Bayesian method yielded a maximum posterior excess odds ratio of 1.16 Gy- (95% BCI 0.20, 4.32), 23% lower than the unadjusted analysis. There were borderline significant (p = 0.053-0.078) indications of downward curvature in the dose response, depending on the adjustment methods used. There were also borderline significant (p = 0.102) modifying effects of gender on the radiation dose trend, but no significant modifying effects of age at time of accident, or age at screening as modifiers of dose response (p>0.2). In summary, the relatively small contribution of unshared classical dose error in the current study results in comparatively modest effects on the regression parameters.

76 FR 18221 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-01

... Ratio Standard for a State's Individual Market; Use: Under section 2718 of the Public Health Service Act... data allows for the calculation of an issuer's medical loss ratio (MLR) by market (individual, small... whether market destabilization has a high likelihood of occurring. Form Number: CMS-10361 (OMB Control No...

Cross-cultural differences for adapting overactive bladder symptoms: results of an epidemiologic survey in Korea.

PubMed

Choo, Myung-Soo; Ku, Ja Hyeon; Lee, Jong Bok; Lee, Dong Hwan; Kim, Joon Chul; Kim, Hyung-Jee; Lee, Jeong Ju; Park, Won-Hee

2007-10-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of overactive bladder (OAB) in a Korean national community sample of adults aged 40-89 years. A national Korean telephone survey using quota sampling methods was conducted. A clinically validated computer-assisted telephone interview approach was used in the survey. In 2,005 subjects (1,005 women and 1,000 men) interviewed, the prevalence of OAB(wet) increased with age in both men and women but OAB(dry) did not. OAB(dry) of men and women was not different in each age decade but OAB(wet) was more common among women than men aged <70 years. Multivariate analysis indicated that sex, age and body mass index (BMI) were associated with OAB(dry). For OAB(wet), sex and age were independent risk factors but BMI was not. In multivariate analysis, urgency was not associated with an increased likelihood of the impact on sexual life in men. The likelihood of the impact on sexual life, quality of life (QOL) and willingness to seek medical consultation was not related to nocturia. In female subjects, odds ratios for the impact of daily living, sexual life, QOL, and willingness to seek help from a health professional were not increased for nocuria. The likelihood of the impact on sexual life and willingness to seek medical help was not related to urge incontinence. Our study provides a valuable insight into the need for tailored education to this population about OAB. These findings suggest that there are cross-cultural differences for adapting OAB symptoms.

Likelihood of home death associated with local rates of home birth: influence of local area healthcare preferences on site of death.

PubMed

Silveira, Maria J; Copeland, Laurel A; Feudtner, Chris

2006-07-01

We tested whether local cultural and social values regarding the use of health care are associated with the likelihood of home death, using variation in local rates of home births as a proxy for geographic variation in these values. For each of 351110 adult decedents in Washington state who died from 1989 through 1998, we calculated the home birth rate in each zip code during the year of death and then used multivariate regression modeling to estimate the relation between the likelihood of home death and the local rate of home births. Individuals residing in local areas with higher home birth rates had greater adjusted likelihood of dying at home (odds ratio [OR]=1.04 for each percentage point increase in home birth rate; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03, 1.05). Moreover, the likelihood of dying at home increased with local wealth (OR=1.04 per $10000; 95% CI=1.02, 1.06) but decreased with local hospital bed availability (OR=0.96 per 1000 beds; 95% CI=0.95, 0.97). The likelihood of home death is associated with local rates of home births, suggesting the influence of health care use preferences.

Planning applications in East Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hannah, J. W. (Principal Investigator); Thomas, G. L.; Esparza, F.; Millard, J. J.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. This is a study of applications of ERTS data to planning problems, especially as applicable to East Central Florida. The primary method has been computer analysis of digital data, with visual analysis of images serving to supplement the digital analysis. The principal method of analysis was supervised maximum likelihood classification, supplemented by density slicing and mapping of ratios of band intensities. Land-use maps have been prepared for several urban and non-urban sectors. Thematic maps have been found to be a useful form of the land-use maps. Change-monitoring has been found to be an appropriate and useful application. Mapping of marsh regions has been found effective and useful in this region. Local planners have participated in selecting training samples and in the checking and interpretation of results.

Handwriting individualization using distance and rarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yi; Srihari, Sargur; Srinivasan, Harish

2012-01-01

Forensic individualization is the task of associating observed evidence with a specific source. The likelihood ratio (LR) is a quantitative measure that expresses the degree of uncertainty in individualization, where the numerator represents the likelihood that the evidence corresponds to the known and the denominator the likelihood that it does not correspond to the known. Since the number of parameters needed to compute the LR is exponential with the number of feature measurements, a commonly used simplification is the use of likelihoods based on distance (or similarity) given the two alternative hypotheses. This paper proposes an intermediate method which decomposes the LR as the product of two factors, one based on distance and the other on rarity. It was evaluated using a data set of handwriting samples, by determining whether two writing samples were written by the same/different writer(s). The accuracy of the distance and rarity method, as measured by error rates, is significantly better than the distance method.

Comparison between presepsin and procalcitonin in early diagnosis of neonatal sepsis.

PubMed

Iskandar, Agustin; Arthamin, Maimun Z; Indriana, Kristin; Anshory, Muhammad; Hur, Mina; Di Somma, Salvatore

2018-05-09

Neonatal sepsis remains worldwide one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in both term and preterm infants. Lower mortality rates are related to timely diagnostic evaluation and prompt initiation of empiric antibiotic therapy. Blood culture, as gold standard examination for sepsis, has several limitations for early diagnosis, so that sepsis biomarkers could play an important role in this regard. This study was aimed to compare the value of the two biomarkers presepsin and procalcitonin in early diagnosis of neonatal sepsis. This was a prospective cross-sectional study performed, in Saiful Anwar General Hospital Malang, Indonesia, in 51 neonates that fulfill the criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) with blood culture as diagnostic gold standard for sepsis. At reviewer operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, using a presepsin cutoff of 706,5 pg/mL, the obtained area under the curve (AUCs) were: sensitivity = 85.7%, specificity = 68.8%, positive predictive value = 85.7%, negative predictive value = 68.8%, positive likelihood ratio = 2.75, negative likelihood ratio = 0.21, and accuracy = 80.4%. On the other hand, with a procalcitonin cutoff value of 161.33 pg/mL the obtained AUCs showed: sensitivity = 68.6%, specificity = 62.5%, positive predictive value = 80%, negative predictive value = 47.6%, positive likelihood ratio = 1.83, the odds ratio negative = 0.5, and accuracy = 66.7%. In early diagnosis of neonatal sepsis, compared with procalcitonin, presepsin seems to provide better early diagnostic value with consequent possible faster therapeutical decision making and possible positive impact on outcome of neonates.

Standard-b-Value Versus Low-b-Value Diffusion-Weighted Imaging in Hepatic Lesion Discrimination: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xiong, Hui; Zeng, Yuan-Lin

2016-01-01

We sought to determine the comparative diagnostic performance of standard-b-value (500-1000s/mm) versus low-b-value (≤500 s/mm) diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) in the discrimination of hepatic lesions. A total of 1775 hepatic malignant lesions and 1120 benign hepatic lesions from 21 studies were included. (1) The global sensitivity was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.847-0.879), the specificity was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.797-0.842), the positive likelihood ratio (PLR) was 6.234 (95% CI, 4.260-9.123), the negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was 0.175 (95% CI, 0.135-0.227), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was 42.836 (95% CI, 24.134-76.031). The area under the curve (AUC) and Q* index were 0.93 and 0.87. Publication bias was not present (P > 0.05). (2)The sensitivity of a subgroup meta-analysis of standard-b-value DWI was 0.858 (95% CI, 0.835-0.880), the specificity was 0.836 (95% CI, 0.807-0.863), the PLR was 6.527 (95% CI, 3.857-11.046), the NLR was 0.168 (95% CI, 0.123-0.239), and the DOR was 49.716 (95% CI, 22.897-107.98). The AUC and Q* index were 0.941 and 0.88. (3)The sensitivity of a subgroup meta-analysis of low-b-value DWI was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.89), the specificity was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83), the PLR was 6.22 (95% CI, 3.29-11.76), the NLR was 0.19 (95% CI, 0.12-0.29), and the DOR was 37.14 (95% CI, 14.80-93.18). The AUC and Q* index were 0.922 and 0.86. Hepatic DWI is useful in differentiating between malignant and benign hepatic lesions. Standard-b-value DWI displayed an overall superior diagnostic accuracy over low-b-value DWI. Further trials needed to determine whether increasing b values beyond 1000 s/mm affects the diagnostic accuracy of hepatic lesion discrimination.

Sensitivity, predictive values, pretest-posttest probabilities, and likelihood ratios of presurgery clinical diagnosis of nonmelanoma skin cancers.

PubMed

Ermertcan, Aylin Türel; Oztürk, Ferdi; Gençoğlan, Gülsüm; Eskiizmir, Görkem; Temiz, Peyker; Horasan, Gönül Dinç

2011-03-01

The precision of clinical diagnosis of skin tumors is not commonly measured and, therefore, very little is known about the diagnostic ability of clinicians. This study aimed to compare clinical and histopathologic diagnoses of nonmelanoma skin cancers with regard to sensitivity, predictive values, pretest-posttest probabilities, and likelihood ratios. Two hundred nineteen patients with 241 nonmelanoma skin cancers were enrolled in this study. Of these patients, 49.4% were female and 50.6% were male. The mean age ± standard deviation (SD) was 63.66 ± 16.44 years for the female patients and 64.77 ± 14.88 years for the male patients. The mean duration of the lesions was 20.90 ± 32.95 months. One hundred forty-eight (61.5%) of the lesions were diagnosed as basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and 93 (38.5%) were diagnosed as squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) histopathologically. Sensitivity, positive predictive value, and posttest probability were calculated as 75.96%, 87.77%, and 87.78% for BCC and 70.37%, 37.25%, and 37.20% for SCC, respectively. The correlation between clinical and histopathologic diagnoses was found to be higher in BCC. Knowledge of sensitivity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, and posttest probabilities may have implications for the management of skin cancers. To prevent unnecessary surgeries and achieve high diagnostic accuracies, multidisciplinary approaches are recommended.

Identifying common donors in DNA mixtures, with applications to database searches.

PubMed

Slooten, K

2017-01-01

Several methods exist to compute the likelihood ratio LR(M, g) evaluating the possible contribution of a person of interest with genotype g to a mixed trace M. In this paper we generalize this LR to a likelihood ratio LR(M 1 , M 2 ) involving two possibly mixed traces M 1 and M 2 , where the question is whether there is a donor in common to both traces. In case one of the traces is in fact a single genotype, then this likelihood ratio reduces to the usual LR(M, g). We explain how our method conceptually is a logical consequence of the fact that LR calculations of the form LR(M, g) can be equivalently regarded as a probabilistic deconvolution of the mixture. Based on simulated data, and using a semi-continuous mixture evaluation model, we derive ROC curves of our method applied to various types of mixtures. From these data we conclude that searches for a common donor are often feasible in the sense that a very small false positive rate can be combined with a high probability to detect a common donor if there is one. We also show how database searches comparing all traces to each other can be carried out efficiently, as illustrated by the application of the method to the mixed traces in the Dutch DNA database. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Diagnostic Accuracy of Special Tests for Rotator Cuff Tear: The ROW Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Jain, Nitin B.; Luz, Jennifer; Higgins, Laurence D.; Dong, Yan; Warner, Jon J.P.; Matzkin, Elizabeth; Katz, Jeffrey N.

2016-01-01

Objective The aim was to assess diagnostic accuracy of 15 shoulder special tests for rotator cuff tears. Design From 02/2011 to 12/2012, 208 participants with shoulder pain were recruited in a cohort study. Results Among tests for supraspinatus tears, Jobe’s test had a sensitivity of 88% (95% CI=80% to 96%), specificity of 62% (95% CI=53% to 71%), and likelihood ratio of 2.30 (95% CI=1.79 to 2.95). The full can test had a sensitivity of 70% (95% CI=59% to 82%) and a specificity of 81% (95% CI=74% to 88%). Among tests for infraspinatus tears, external rotation lag signs at 0° had a specificity of 98% (95% CI=96% to 100%) and a likelihood ratio of 6.06 (95% CI=1.30 to 28.33), and the Hornblower’s sign had a specificity of 96% (95% CI=93% to 100%) and likelihood ratio of 4.81 (95% CI=1.60 to 14.49). Conclusions Jobe’s test and full can test had high sensitivity and specificity for supraspinatus tears and Hornblower’s sign performed well for infraspinatus tears. In general, special tests described for subscapularis tears have high specificity but low sensitivity. These data can be used in clinical practice to diagnose rotator cuff tears and may reduce the reliance on expensive imaging. PMID:27386812

Allele-sharing models: LOD scores and accurate linkage tests.

PubMed

Kong, A; Cox, N J

1997-11-01

Starting with a test statistic for linkage analysis based on allele sharing, we propose an associated one-parameter model. Under general missing-data patterns, this model allows exact calculation of likelihood ratios and LOD scores and has been implemented by a simple modification of existing software. Most important, accurate linkage tests can be performed. Using an example, we show that some previously suggested approaches to handling less than perfectly informative data can be unacceptably conservative. Situations in which this model may not perform well are discussed, and an alternative model that requires additional computations is suggested.

Allele-sharing models: LOD scores and accurate linkage tests.

PubMed Central

Kong, A; Cox, N J

1997-01-01

Starting with a test statistic for linkage analysis based on allele sharing, we propose an associated one-parameter model. Under general missing-data patterns, this model allows exact calculation of likelihood ratios and LOD scores and has been implemented by a simple modification of existing software. Most important, accurate linkage tests can be performed. Using an example, we show that some previously suggested approaches to handling less than perfectly informative data can be unacceptably conservative. Situations in which this model may not perform well are discussed, and an alternative model that requires additional computations is suggested. PMID:9345087

Testing CEV stochastic volatility models using implied volatility index data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2018-06-01

We test the goodness-of-fit of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the implied volatility index of the KOSPI200 options (VKOSPI). The likelihood ratio tests reject the Heston and Hull-White SV models, whether or not they include jumps. Our estimation results advocate the unconstrained constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model with return jumps for describing the physical-measure dynamics of the spot index. The sub-period analysis shows that there was a significant increase in the size and frequency of jumps during the crisis period, when compared to those in the normal periods.

Radio Frequency Interference Detection for Passive Remote Sensing Using Eigenvalue Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoenwald, Adam; Kim, Seung-Jun; Mohammed-Tano, Priscilla

2017-01-01

Radio frequency interference (RFI) can corrupt passive remote sensing measurements taken with microwave radiometers. With the increasingly utilized spectrum and the push for larger bandwidth radiometers, the likelihood of RFI contamination has grown significantly. In this work, an eigenvalue-based algorithm is developed to detect the presence of RFI and provide estimates of RFI-free radiation levels. Simulated tests show that the proposed detector outperforms conventional kurtosis-based RFI detectors in the low-to-medium interferece-to-noise-power-ratio (INR) regime under continuous wave (CW) and quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) RFIs.

Radio Frequency Interference Detection for Passive Remote Sensing Using Eigenvalue Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoenwald, Adam J.; Kim, Seung-Jun; Mohammed, Priscilla N.

2017-01-01

Radio frequency interference (RFI) can corrupt passive remote sensing measurements taken with microwave radiometers. With the increasingly utilized spectrum and the push for larger bandwidth radiometers, the likelihood of RFI contamination has grown significantly. In this work, an eigenvalue-based algorithm is developed to detect the presence of RFI and provide estimates of RFI-free radiation levels. Simulated tests show that the proposed detector outperforms conventional kurtosis-based RFI detectors in the low-to-medium interference-to-noise-power-ratio (INR) regime under continuous wave (CW) and quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) RFIs.

Negative serum carcinoembryonic antigen has insufficient accuracy for excluding recurrence from patients with Dukes C colorectal cancer: analysis with likelihood ratio and posttest probability in a follow-up study.

PubMed

Hara, Masayasu; Kanemitsu, Yukihide; Hirai, Takashi; Komori, Koji; Kato, Tomoyuki

2008-11-01

This study was designed to determine the efficacy of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) monitoring for screening patients with colorectal cancer by using posttest probability of recurrence. For this study, 348 (preoperative serum CEA level elevated: CEA+, n = 119; or normal: CEA-, n = 229) patients who had undergone potentially curative surgery for colorectal cancer were enrolled. After five-year follow-up with measurements of serum CEA levels and imaging workup, posttest probabilities of recurrence were calculated. Recurrence was observed in 39 percent of CEA+ patients and 30 percent in CEA- patients, and CEA levels were elevated in 33.3 percent of CEA+ patients and 17.5 percent of CEA- patients. With obtained sensitivity (68.4 percent, CEA+; 41 percent, CEA-), specificity (83 percent, CEA+; 91 percent, CEA-) and likelihood ratio (test positive: 4.0, CEA+; 4.4, CEA-; and test negative: 0.38, CEA+; 0.66, CEA-), posttest probability given the presence of CEA elevation in the CEA+ and CEA- was 72.2 and 65.5 percent, respectively, and that given the absence of CEA elevation was 20 and 22.2 percent, respectively. Whereas postoperative CEA elevation indicates recurrence with high probability, a normal postoperative CEA is not useful for excluding the probability of recurrence.

Partner Relationships and Injection Sharing Practices among Rural Appalachian Women.

PubMed

Staton, Michele; Strickland, Justin C; Tillson, Martha; Leukefeld, Carl; Webster, J Matthew; Oser, Carrie B

The role of relationships in initiating and maintaining women's risk behaviors has been established. However, understanding factors that may underlie partner relationships and women's risky drug use, particularly in rural contexts, is limited. This study is the first to examine the association between injecting partners and women's risky injection practices as a function of relationship power perception. Female participants were recruited from three rural jails in the Appalachian region. Women were selected randomly, provided informed consent, and screened for study eligibility criteria. This cross-sectional analysis focuses on women who inject drugs during the year before entering jail (n = 199). Approximately three-quarters (76%) reported having a recent main male sexual partner with a history of injection drug use. Although having a risky partner independently increased the likelihood of women reporting shared injection practices, perceptions of relationship power significantly moderated the effect on shared needle (adjusted odds ratio, 0.02; 95% CI, 0.003-0.23; p = .001) and shared works (adjusted odds ratio, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.03-0.95; p = .04) use. This interaction indicated that, for women who inject drugs with a recent injecting male partner, greater perception of relationship power was associated with a decreased likelihood of shared injection practices. Implications for clinical assessment and intervention are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospective evaluation of the ability of clinical scoring systems and physician-determined likelihood of appendicitis to obviate the need for CT.

PubMed

Golden, Sean K; Harringa, John B; Pickhardt, Perry J; Ebinger, Alexander; Svenson, James E; Zhao, Ying-Qi; Li, Zhanhai; Westergaard, Ryan P; Ehlenbach, William J; Repplinger, Michael D

2016-07-01

To determine whether clinical scoring systems or physician gestalt can obviate the need for computed tomography (CT) in patients with possible appendicitis. Prospective, observational study of patients with abdominal pain at an academic emergency department (ED) from February 2012 to February 2014. Patients over 11 years old who had a CT ordered for possible appendicitis were eligible. All parameters needed to calculate the scores were recorded on standardised forms prior to CT. Physicians also estimated the likelihood of appendicitis. Test characteristics were calculated using clinical follow-up as the reference standard. Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn. Of the 287 patients (mean age (range), 31 (12-88) years; 60% women), the prevalence of appendicitis was 33%. The Alvarado score had a positive likelihood ratio (LR(+)) (95% CI) of 2.2 (1.7 to 3) and a negative likelihood ratio (LR(-)) of 0.6 (0.4 to 0.7). The modified Alvarado score (MAS) had LR(+) 2.4 (1.6 to 3.4) and LR(-) 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8). The Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha Appendicitis (RIPASA) score had LR(+) 1.3 (1.1 to 1.5) and LR(-) 0.5 (0.4 to 0.8). Physician-determined likelihood of appendicitis had LR(+) 1.3 (1.2 to 1.5) and LR(-) 0.3 (0.2 to 0.6). When combined with physician likelihoods, LR(+) and LR(-) was 3.67 and 0.48 (Alvarado), 2.33 and 0.45 (RIPASA), and 3.87 and 0.47 (MAS). The area under the curve was highest for physician-determined likelihood (0.72), but was not statistically significantly different from the clinical scores (RIPASA 0.67, Alvarado 0.72, MAS 0.7). Clinical scoring systems performed equally well as physician gestalt in predicting appendicitis. These scores do not obviate the need for imaging for possible appendicitis when a physician deems it necessary. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Combining Ratio Estimation for Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) Coding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahmoud, Saad; Hi, Jianjun

2012-01-01

The Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) Code decoding algorithm make use of a scaled receive signal derived from maximizing the log-likelihood ratio of the received signal. The scaling factor (often called the combining ratio) in an AWGN channel is a ratio between signal amplitude and noise variance. Accurately estimating this ratio has shown as much as 0.6 dB decoding performance gain. This presentation briefly describes three methods for estimating the combining ratio: a Pilot-Guided estimation method, a Blind estimation method, and a Simulation-Based Look-Up table. The Pilot Guided Estimation method has shown that the maximum likelihood estimates of signal amplitude is the mean inner product of the received sequence and the known sequence, the attached synchronization marker (ASM) , and signal variance is the difference of the mean of the squared received sequence and the square of the signal amplitude. This method has the advantage of simplicity at the expense of latency since several frames worth of ASMs. The Blind estimation method s maximum likelihood estimator is the average of the product of the received signal with the hyperbolic tangent of the product combining ratio and the received signal. The root of this equation can be determined by an iterative binary search between 0 and 1 after normalizing the received sequence. This method has the benefit of requiring one frame of data to estimate the combining ratio which is good for faster changing channels compared to the previous method, however it is computationally expensive. The final method uses a look-up table based on prior simulated results to determine signal amplitude and noise variance. In this method the received mean signal strength is controlled to a constant soft decision value. The magnitude of the deviation is averaged over a predetermined number of samples. This value is referenced in a look up table to determine the combining ratio that prior simulation associated with the average magnitude of the deviation. This method is more complicated than the Pilot-Guided Method due to the gain control circuitry, but does not have the real-time computation complexity of the Blind Estimation method. Each of these methods can be used to provide an accurate estimation of the combining ratio, and the final selection of the estimation method depends on other design constraints.

[Application of SAS macro to evaluated multiplicative and additive interaction in logistic and Cox regression in clinical practices].

PubMed

Nie, Z Q; Ou, Y Q; Zhuang, J; Qu, Y J; Mai, J Z; Chen, J M; Liu, X Q

2016-05-01

Conditional logistic regression analysis and unconditional logistic regression analysis are commonly used in case control study, but Cox proportional hazard model is often used in survival data analysis. Most literature only refer to main effect model, however, generalized linear model differs from general linear model, and the interaction was composed of multiplicative interaction and additive interaction. The former is only statistical significant, but the latter has biological significance. In this paper, macros was written by using SAS 9.4 and the contrast ratio, attributable proportion due to interaction and synergy index were calculated while calculating the items of logistic and Cox regression interactions, and the confidence intervals of Wald, delta and profile likelihood were used to evaluate additive interaction for the reference in big data analysis in clinical epidemiology and in analysis of genetic multiplicative and additive interactions.

Combining evidence using likelihood ratios in writer verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srihari, Sargur; Kovalenko, Dimitry; Tang, Yi; Ball, Gregory

2013-01-01

Forensic identification is the task of determining whether or not observed evidence arose from a known source. It involves determining a likelihood ratio (LR) - the ratio of the joint probability of the evidence and source under the identification hypothesis (that the evidence came from the source) and under the exclusion hypothesis (that the evidence did not arise from the source). In LR- based decision methods, particularly handwriting comparison, a variable number of input evidences is used. A decision based on many pieces of evidence can result in nearly the same LR as one based on few pieces of evidence. We consider methods for distinguishing between such situations. One of these is to provide confidence intervals together with the decisions and another is to combine the inputs using weights. We propose a new method that generalizes the Bayesian approach and uses an explicitly defined discount function. Empirical evaluation with several data sets including synthetically generated ones and handwriting comparison shows greater flexibility of the proposed method.

Surgical resident supervision in the operating room and outcomes of care in Veterans Affairs hospitals.

PubMed

Itani, Kamal M F; DePalma, Ralph G; Schifftner, Tracy; Sanders, Karen M; Chang, Barbara K; Henderson, William G; Khuri, Shukri F

2005-11-01

There has been concern that a reduced level of surgical resident supervision in the operating room (OR) is correlated with worse patient outcomes. Until September 2004, Veterans' Affairs (VA) hospitals entered in the surgical record level 3 supervision on every surgical case when the attending physician was available but not physically present in the OR or the OR suite. In this study, we assessed the impact of level 3 on risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality in the VA system. Surgical cases entered into the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database between 1998 and 2004, from 99 VA teaching facilities, were included in a logistic regression analysis for each year. Level 3 versus all other levels of supervision were forced into the model, and patient characteristics then were selected stepwise to arrive at a final model. Confidence limits for the odds ratios were calculated by profile likelihood. A total of 610,660 cases were available for analysis. Thirty-day mortality and morbidity rates were reported in 14,441 (2.36%) and 63,079 (10.33%) cases, respectively. Level 3 supervision decreased from 8.72% in 1998 to 2.69% in 2004. In the logistic regression analysis, the odds ratios for mortality for level 3 ranged from .72 to 1.03. Only in the year 2000 were the odds ratio for mortality statistically significant at the .05 level (odds ratio, .72; 95% confidence interval, .594-.858). For morbidity, the odds ratios for level 3 supervision ranged from .66 to 1.01, and all odds ratios except for the year 2004 were statistically significant. Between 1998 and 2004, the level of resident supervision in the OR did not affect clinical outcomes adversely for surgical patients in the VA teaching hospitals.

The effect of lossy image compression on image classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paola, Justin D.; Schowengerdt, Robert A.

1995-01-01

We have classified four different images, under various levels of JPEG compression, using the following classification algorithms: minimum-distance, maximum-likelihood, and neural network. The training site accuracy and percent difference from the original classification were tabulated for each image compression level, with maximum-likelihood showing the poorest results. In general, as compression ratio increased, the classification retained its overall appearance, but much of the pixel-to-pixel detail was eliminated. We also examined the effect of compression on spatial pattern detection using a neural network.

An Empirical Comparison of DDF Detection Methods for Understanding the Causes of DIF in Multiple-Choice Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suh, Youngsuk; Talley, Anna E.

2015-01-01

This study compared and illustrated four differential distractor functioning (DDF) detection methods for analyzing multiple-choice items. The log-linear approach, two item response theory-model-based approaches with likelihood ratio tests, and the odds ratio approach were compared to examine the congruence among the four DDF detection methods.…

PBOOST: a GPU-based tool for parallel permutation tests in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Yang, Guangyuan; Jiang, Wei; Yang, Qiang; Yu, Weichuan

2015-05-01

The importance of testing associations allowing for interactions has been demonstrated by Marchini et al. (2005). A fast method detecting associations allowing for interactions has been proposed by Wan et al. (2010a). The method is based on likelihood ratio test with the assumption that the statistic follows the χ(2) distribution. Many single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) pairs with significant associations allowing for interactions have been detected using their method. However, the assumption of χ(2) test requires the expected values in each cell of the contingency table to be at least five. This assumption is violated in some identified SNP pairs. In this case, likelihood ratio test may not be applicable any more. Permutation test is an ideal approach to checking the P-values calculated in likelihood ratio test because of its non-parametric nature. The P-values of SNP pairs having significant associations with disease are always extremely small. Thus, we need a huge number of permutations to achieve correspondingly high resolution for the P-values. In order to investigate whether the P-values from likelihood ratio tests are reliable, a fast permutation tool to accomplish large number of permutations is desirable. We developed a permutation tool named PBOOST. It is based on GPU with highly reliable P-value estimation. By using simulation data, we found that the P-values from likelihood ratio tests will have relative error of >100% when 50% cells in the contingency table have expected count less than five or when there is zero expected count in any of the contingency table cells. In terms of speed, PBOOST completed 10(7) permutations for a single SNP pair from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) genome data (Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, 2007) within 1 min on a single Nvidia Tesla M2090 device, while it took 60 min in a single CPU Intel Xeon E5-2650 to finish the same task. More importantly, when simultaneously testing 256 SNP pairs for 10(7) permutations, our tool took only 5 min, while the CPU program took 10 h. By permuting on a GPU cluster consisting of 40 nodes, we completed 10(12) permutations for all 280 SNP pairs reported with P-values smaller than 1.6 × 10⁻¹² in the WTCCC datasets in 1 week. The source code and sample data are available at http://bioinformatics.ust.hk/PBOOST.zip. gyang@ust.hk; eeyu@ust.hk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

High-resolution gel electrophoresis and sodium dodecyl sulphate-agarose gel electrophoresis on urine samples for qualitative analysis of proteinuria in dogs.

PubMed

Giori, Luca; Tricomi, Flavia Marcella; Zatelli, Andrea; Roura, Xavier; Paltrinieri, Saverio

2011-07-01

The aims of the current study were to assess whether sodium dodecyl sulphate-agarose gel electrophoresis (SDS-AGE) and high-resolution electrophoresis (HRE) can identify dogs with a urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPC ratio) >0.2 and whether HRE can provide preliminary information about the type of proteinuria, using SDS-AGE as a reference method. HRE and SDS-AGE were conducted on 87 urine samples classified according to the International Renal Interest Society as non-proteinuric (NP; UPC ratio: <0.20; 32/87), borderline proteinuric (BP; UPC ratio: 0.21-0.50; 15/87), or proteinuric (P; UPC ratio: >0.51; 40/87). SDS-AGE and HRE were positive in 14 out of 32 and 3 out of 32 NP samples and in 52 out of 55 and 40 out of 55 samples with a UPC ratio >0.20, respectively. The concordance between HRE or SDS and UPC ratio was comparable (κ = 0.59; κ = 0.55). However, specificity (90%) and positive likelihood ratio (7.76) were higher for HRE than for SDS-AGE (56% and 2.16) while sensitivity was lower (73% vs. 94%). The analysis of HRE results revealed that a percentage of albumin >41.4% and an albumin/α(1)-globulin ratio (alb/α(1) ratio) >1.46 can identify samples classified by SDS-AGE as affected by glomerular proteinuria while a percentage of α(1)-globulin >40.8% and an alb/α(1) ratio <0.84 can identify samples classified by SDS-AGE as affected by tubular proteinuria. In conclusion, both SDS-AGE and HRE could misclassify samples with a UPC ratio higher or lower than 0.20. Therefore, UPC ratio must always be determined before conducting these tests. The percentage of albumin and α(1)-globulin or the alb/α(1) ratio determined by HRE can provide preliminary information about the origin of proteinuria.

A partial differential equation-based general framework adapted to Rayleigh's, Rician's and Gaussian's distributed noise for restoration and enhancement of magnetic resonance image.

PubMed

Yadav, Ram Bharos; Srivastava, Subodh; Srivastava, Rajeev

2016-01-01

The proposed framework is obtained by casting the noise removal problem into a variational framework. This framework automatically identifies the various types of noise present in the magnetic resonance image and filters them by choosing an appropriate filter. This filter includes two terms: the first term is a data likelihood term and the second term is a prior function. The first term is obtained by minimizing the negative log likelihood of the corresponding probability density functions: Gaussian or Rayleigh or Rician. Further, due to the ill-posedness of the likelihood term, a prior function is needed. This paper examines three partial differential equation based priors which include total variation based prior, anisotropic diffusion based prior, and a complex diffusion (CD) based prior. A regularization parameter is used to balance the trade-off between data fidelity term and prior. The finite difference scheme is used for discretization of the proposed method. The performance analysis and comparative study of the proposed method with other standard methods is presented for brain web dataset at varying noise levels in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio, mean square error, structure similarity index map, and correlation parameter. From the simulation results, it is observed that the proposed framework with CD based prior is performing better in comparison to other priors in consideration.

Combined diagnostic performance of coronary computed tomography angiography and computed tomography derived fractional flow reserve for the evaluation of myocardial ischemia: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tan, Xiao Wei; Zheng, Qishi; Shi, Luming; Gao, Fei; Allen, John Carson; Coenen, Adriaan; Baumann, Stefan; Schoepf, U Joseph; Kassab, Ghassan S; Lim, Soo Teik; Wong, Aaron Sung Lung; Tan, Jack Wei Chieh; Yeo, Khung Keong; Chin, Chee Tang; Ho, Kay Woon; Tan, Swee Yaw; Chua, Terrance Siang Jin; Chan, Edwin Shih Yen; Tan, Ru San; Zhong, Liang

2017-06-01

To evaluate the combined diagnostic accuracy of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) and computed tomography derived fractional flow reserve (FFRct) in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD). PubMed, The Cochrane library, Embase and OpenGray were searched to identify studies comparing diagnostic accuracy of CCTA and FFRct. Diagnostic test measurements of FFRct were either extracted directly from the published papers or calculated from provided information. Bivariate models were conducted to synthesize the diagnostic performance of combined CCTA and FFRct at both "per-vessel" and "per-patient" levels. 7 articles were included for analysis. The combined diagnostic outcomes from "both positive" strategy, i.e. a subject was considered as "positive" only when both CCTA and FFRct were "positive", demonstrated relative high specificity (per-vessel: 0.91; per-patient: 0.81), high positive likelihood ratio (LR+, per-vessel: 7.93; per-patient: 4.26), high negative likelihood ratio (LR-, per-vessel: 0.30; per patient: 0.24) and high accuracy (per-vessel: 0.91; per-patient: 0.81) while "either positive" strategy, i.e. a subject was considered as "positive" when either CCTA or FFRct was "positive", demonstrated relative high sensitivity (per-vessel: 0.97; per-patient: 0.98), low LR+ (per-vessel: 1.50; per-patient: 1.17), low LR- (per-vessel: 0.07; per-patient: 0.09) and low accuracy (per-vessel: 0.57; per-patient: 0.54). "Both positive" strategy showed better diagnostic performance to rule in patients with non-significant stenosis compared to "either positive" strategy, as it efficiently reduces the proportion of testing false positive subjects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic accuracy of transesophageal echocardiogram for the detection of patent foramen ovale: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mojadidi, Mohammad Khalid; Bogush, Nikolay; Caceres, Jose Diego; Msaouel, Pavlos; Tobis, Jonathan M

2014-07-01

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a remnant of the fetal circulation present in 20% of the population. Right-to-left shunting (RLS) through a PFO has been linked to the pathophysiology of stroke, migraine with aura, and hypoxemia. While different imaging modalities including transcranial Doppler, intra-cardiac echo, and transthoracic echo (TTE) have often been used to detect RLS, transesophageal echo (TEE) bubble study remains the gold standard for diagnosing PFO. The aim of this study was to determine the relative accuracy of TEE in the detection of PFO. A systematic review of Medline, using a standard approach for meta-analysis, was performed for all prospective studies assessing accuracy of TEE in the detection of PFO using confirmation by autopsy, cardiac surgery, and/or catheterization as the reference. Search results revealed 3105 studies; 4 met inclusion criteria. A total of 164 patients were included. TEE had a weighted sensitivity of 89.2% (95% CI: 81.1-94.7%) and specificity of 91.4% (95% CI: 82.3-96.8%) to detect PFO. The overall positive likelihood ratio (LR+) was 5.93 (95% CI: 1.30-27.09) and the overall negative likelihood ratio (LR-) was 0.22 (95% CI: 0.08-0.56). While TEE bubble study is considered to be the gold standard modality for diagnosing PFO, some PFOs may still be missed or misdiagnosed. It is important to understand the limitations of TEE and perhaps use other highly sensitive screening tests, such as transcranial doppler (TCD), in conjunction with TEE before scheduling a patient for transcatheter PFO closure. © 2013, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Determining β-lactam exposure threshold to suppress resistance development in Gram-negative bacteria.

PubMed

Tam, Vincent H; Chang, Kai-Tai; Zhou, Jian; Ledesma, Kimberly R; Phe, Kady; Gao, Song; Van Bambeke, Françoise; Sánchez-Díaz, Ana María; Zamorano, Laura; Oliver, Antonio; Cantón, Rafael

2017-05-01

β-Lactams are commonly used for nosocomial infections and resistance to these agents among Gram-negative bacteria is increasing rapidly. Optimized dosing is expected to reduce the likelihood of resistance development during antimicrobial therapy, but the target for clinical dose adjustment is not well established. We examined the likelihood that various dosing exposures would suppress resistance development in an in vitro hollow-fibre infection model. Two strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae and two strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (baseline inocula of ∼10 8  cfu/mL) were examined. Various dosing exposures of cefepime, ceftazidime and meropenem were simulated in the hollow-fibre infection model. Serial samples were obtained to ascertain the pharmacokinetic simulations and viable bacterial burden for up to 120 h. Drug concentrations were determined by a validated LC-MS/MS assay and the simulated exposures were expressed as C min /MIC ratios. Resistance development was detected by quantitative culture on drug-supplemented media plates (at 3× the corresponding baseline MIC). The C min /MIC breakpoint threshold to prevent bacterial regrowth was identified by classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. For all strains, the bacterial burden declined initially with the simulated exposures, but regrowth was observed in 9 out of 31 experiments. CART analysis revealed that a C min /MIC ratio ≥3.8 was significantly associated with regrowth prevention (100% versus 44%, P  = 0.001). The development of β-lactam resistance during therapy could be suppressed by an optimized dosing exposure. Validation of the proposed target in a well-designed clinical study is warranted. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Artificial neural network, genetic algorithm, and logistic regression applications for predicting renal colic in emergency settings.

PubMed

Eken, Cenker; Bilge, Ugur; Kartal, Mutlu; Eray, Oktay

2009-06-03

Logistic regression is the most common statistical model for processing multivariate data in the medical literature. Artificial intelligence models like an artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) may also be useful to interpret medical data. The purpose of this study was to perform artificial intelligence models on a medical data sheet and compare to logistic regression. ANN, GA, and logistic regression analysis were carried out on a data sheet of a previously published article regarding patients presenting to an emergency department with flank pain suspicious for renal colic. The study population was composed of 227 patients: 176 patients had a diagnosis of urinary stone, while 51 ultimately had no calculus. The GA found two decision rules in predicting urinary stones. Rule 1 consisted of being male, pain not spreading to back, and no fever. In rule 2, pelvicaliceal dilatation on bedside ultrasonography replaced no fever. ANN, GA rule 1, GA rule 2, and logistic regression had a sensitivity of 94.9, 67.6, 56.8, and 95.5%, a specificity of 78.4, 76.47, 86.3, and 47.1%, a positive likelihood ratio of 4.4, 2.9, 4.1, and 1.8, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.06, 0.42, 0.5, and 0.09, respectively. The area under the curve was found to be 0.867, 0.720, 0.715, and 0.713 for all applications, respectively. Data mining techniques such as ANN and GA can be used for predicting renal colic in emergency settings and to constitute clinical decision rules. They may be an alternative to conventional multivariate analysis applications used in biostatistics.

Hurdle models for multilevel zero-inflated data via h-likelihood.

PubMed

Molas, Marek; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2010-12-30

Count data often exhibit overdispersion. One type of overdispersion arises when there is an excess of zeros in comparison with the standard Poisson distribution. Zero-inflated Poisson and hurdle models have been proposed to perform a valid likelihood-based analysis to account for the surplus of zeros. Further, data often arise in clustered, longitudinal or multiple-membership settings. The proper analysis needs to reflect the design of a study. Typically random effects are used to account for dependencies in the data. We examine the h-likelihood estimation and inference framework for hurdle models with random effects for complex designs. We extend the h-likelihood procedures to fit hurdle models, thereby extending h-likelihood to truncated distributions. Two applications of the methodology are presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

External Validation of Fatty Liver Index for Identifying Ultrasonographic Fatty Liver in a Large-Scale Cross-Sectional Study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Fang, Kuan-Chieh; Wang, Yuan-Chen; Huo, Teh-Ia; Huang, Yi-Hsiang; Yang, Hwai-I; Su, Chien-Wei; Lin, Han-Chieh; Lee, Fa-Yauh; Wu, Jaw-Ching; Lee, Shou-Dong

2015-01-01

Background and Aims The fatty liver index (FLI) is an algorithm involving the waist circumference, body mass index, and serum levels of triglyceride and gamma-glutamyl transferase to identify fatty liver. Although some studies have attempted to validate the FLI, few studies have been conducted for external validation among Asians. We attempted to validate FLI to predict ultrasonographic fatty liver in Taiwanese subjects. Methods We enrolled consecutive subjects who received health check-up services at the Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2002 to 2009. Ultrasonography was applied to diagnose fatty liver. The ability of the FLI to detect ultrasonographic fatty liver was assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results Among the 29,797 subjects enrolled in this study, fatty liver was diagnosed in 44.5% of the population. Subjects with ultrasonographic fatty liver had a significantly higher FLI than those without fatty liver by multivariate analysis (odds ratio 1.045; 95% confidence interval, CI 1.044–1.047, p< 0.001). Moreover, FLI had the best discriminative ability to identify patients with ultrasonographic fatty liver (AUROC: 0.827, 95% confidence interval, 0.822–0.831). An FLI < 25 (negative likelihood ratio (LR−) 0.32) for males and <10 (LR− 0.26) for females rule out ultrasonographic fatty liver. Moreover, an FLI ≥ 35 (positive likelihood ratio (LR+) 3.12) for males and ≥ 20 (LR+ 4.43) for females rule in ultrasonographic fatty liver. Conclusions FLI could accurately identify ultrasonographic fatty liver in a large-scale population in Taiwan but with lower cut-off value than the Western population. Meanwhile the cut-off value was lower in females than in males. PMID:25781622

Diagnostic Accuracy of Computer Tomography Angiography and Magnetic Resonance Angiography in the Stenosis Detection of Autologuous Hemodialysis Access: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Shiyuan

2013-01-01

Purpose To compare the diagnostic performances of computer tomography angiography (CTA) and magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) for detection and assessment of stenosis in patients with autologuous hemodialysis access. Materials and Methods Search of PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library database from January 1984 to May 2013 for studies comparing CTA or MRA with DSA or surgery for autologuous hemodialysis access. Eligible studies were in English language, aimed to detect more than 50% stenosis or occlusion of autologuous vascular access in hemodialysis patients with CTA and MRA technology and provided sufficient data about diagnosis performance. Methodological quality was assessed by the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Studies (QUADAS) instrument. Sensitivities (SEN), specificities (SPE), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood values (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) were pooled statistically. Potential threshold effect, heterogeneity and publication bias was evaluated. The clinical utility of CTA and MRA in detection of stenosis was also investigated. Result Sixteen eligible studies were included, with a total of 500 patients. Both CTA and MRA were accurate modality (sensitivity, 96.2% and 95.4%, respectively; specificity, 97.1 and 96.1%, respectively; DOR [diagnostic odds ratio], 393.69 and 211.47, respectively) for hemodialysis vascular access. No significant difference was detected between the diagnostic performance of CTA (AUC, 0.988) and MRA (AUC, 0.982). Meta-regression analyses and subgroup analyses revealed no statistical difference. The Deek’s funnel plots suggested a publication bias. Conclusion Diagnostic performance of CTA and MRA for detecting stenosis of hemodialysis vascular access had no statistical difference. Both techniques may function as an alternative or an important complement to conventional digital subtraction angiography (DSA) and may be able to help guide medical management. PMID:24194928

Smoothing of the bivariate LOD score for non-normal quantitative traits.

PubMed

Buil, Alfonso; Dyer, Thomas D; Almasy, Laura; Blangero, John

2005-12-30

Variance component analysis provides an efficient method for performing linkage analysis for quantitative traits. However, type I error of variance components-based likelihood ratio testing may be affected when phenotypic data are non-normally distributed (especially with high values of kurtosis). This results in inflated LOD scores when the normality assumption does not hold. Even though different solutions have been proposed to deal with this problem with univariate phenotypes, little work has been done in the multivariate case. We present an empirical approach to adjust the inflated LOD scores obtained from a bivariate phenotype that violates the assumption of normality. Using the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism data available for the Genetic Analysis Workshop 14, we show how bivariate linkage analysis with leptokurtotic traits gives an inflated type I error. We perform a novel correction that achieves acceptable levels of type I error.

[Clinical examination and the Valsalva maneuver in heart failure].

PubMed

Liniado, Guillermo E; Beck, Martín A; Gimeno, Graciela M; González, Ana L; Cianciulli, Tomás F; Castiello, Gustavo G; Gagliardi, Juan A

2018-01-01

Congestion in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is relevant and closely linked to the clinical course. Bedside blood pressure measurement during the Valsalva maneuver (Val) added to clinical examination may improve the assessment of congestion when compared to NT-proBNP levels and left atrial pressure (LAP) estimation by Doppler echocardiography, as surrogate markers of congestion in HFrEF. A clinical examination, LAP and blood tests were performed in 69 HFrEF ambulatory patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 40% and sinus rhythm. Framingham Heart Failure Score (HFS) was used to evaluate clinical congestion; Val was classified as normal or abnormal, NT-proBNP was classified as low (< 1000 pg/ml) or high (≥ 1000 pg/ml) and the ratio between Doppler early mitral inflow and tissue diastolic velocity was used to estimate LAP and was classified as low (E/e'< 15) or high (E/e' ≥ 15). A total of 69 patients with HFrEF were included; 27 had a HFS ≥ 2 and 13 of them had high NT-proBNP. HFS ≥ 2 had a 62% sensitivity, 70% specificity and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.08 (p=0.01) to detect congestion. When Val was added to clinical examination, the presence of a HFS ≥ 2 and abnormal Val showed a 100% sensitivity, 64% specificity and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.8 (p = 0.0004). Compared with LAP, the presence of HFS = 2 and abnormal Val had 86% sensitivity, 54% specificity and a positive likelihood ratio of 1.86 (p = 0.03). In conclusion, an integrated clinical examination with the addition Valsalva maneuver may improve the assessment of congestion in patients with HFrEF.

A score to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia at colonoscopy

PubMed Central

Kaminski, Michal F; Polkowski, Marcin; Kraszewska, Ewa; Rupinski, Maciej; Butruk, Eugeniusz; Regula, Jaroslaw

2014-01-01

Objective This study aimed to develop and validate a model to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in Caucasian patients. Design We performed a cross-sectional analysis of database records for 40-year-old to 66-year-old patients who entered a national primary colonoscopy-based screening programme for colorectal cancer in 73 centres in Poland in the year 2007. We used multivariate logistic regression to investigate the associations between clinical variables and the presence of advanced neoplasia in a randomly selected test set, and confirmed the associations in a validation set. We used model coefficients to develop a risk score for detection of advanced colorectal neoplasia. Results Advanced colorectal neoplasia was detected in 2544 of the 35 918 included participants (7.1%). In the test set, a logistic-regression model showed that independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia were: age, sex, family history of colorectal cancer, cigarette smoking (p<0.001 for these four factors), and Body Mass Index (p=0.033). In the validation set, the model was well calibrated (ratio of expected to observed risk of advanced neoplasia: 1.00 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.06)) and had moderate discriminatory power (c-statistic 0.62). We developed a score that estimated the likelihood of detecting advanced neoplasia in the validation set, from 1.32% for patients scoring 0, to 19.12% for patients scoring 7–8. Conclusions Developed and internally validated score consisting of simple clinical factors successfully estimates the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in asymptomatic Caucasian patients. Once externally validated, it may be useful for counselling or designing primary prevention studies. PMID:24385598

A score to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia at colonoscopy.

PubMed

Kaminski, Michal F; Polkowski, Marcin; Kraszewska, Ewa; Rupinski, Maciej; Butruk, Eugeniusz; Regula, Jaroslaw

2014-07-01

This study aimed to develop and validate a model to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in Caucasian patients. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of database records for 40-year-old to 66-year-old patients who entered a national primary colonoscopy-based screening programme for colorectal cancer in 73 centres in Poland in the year 2007. We used multivariate logistic regression to investigate the associations between clinical variables and the presence of advanced neoplasia in a randomly selected test set, and confirmed the associations in a validation set. We used model coefficients to develop a risk score for detection of advanced colorectal neoplasia. Advanced colorectal neoplasia was detected in 2544 of the 35,918 included participants (7.1%). In the test set, a logistic-regression model showed that independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia were: age, sex, family history of colorectal cancer, cigarette smoking (p<0.001 for these four factors), and Body Mass Index (p=0.033). In the validation set, the model was well calibrated (ratio of expected to observed risk of advanced neoplasia: 1.00 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.06)) and had moderate discriminatory power (c-statistic 0.62). We developed a score that estimated the likelihood of detecting advanced neoplasia in the validation set, from 1.32% for patients scoring 0, to 19.12% for patients scoring 7-8. Developed and internally validated score consisting of simple clinical factors successfully estimates the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in asymptomatic Caucasian patients. Once externally validated, it may be useful for counselling or designing primary prevention studies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Coronary artery atherosclerosis and risk stratification in young adults with an intermediate pretest likelihood detected by multidetector computed tomography.

PubMed

Hou, Zhi-hui; Lu, Bin; Gao, Yang; Yu, Fang-fang; Cao, Hui-li; Jiang, Shi-liang; Roy, Sion K; Budoff, Matthew J

2012-11-01

To document the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients younger than 45 years of age with intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD, and to determine whether coronary computed tomography angiography (cCTA) is useful for risk stratification of this cohort. We followed 452 intermediate pretest likelihood (according to Diamond and Forrester) outpatients who were suspected of CAD and underwent cCTA. They were all younger than 45 years old. The endpoint was MACE, defined as composite cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. Follow-up was completed in 427 patients (94.5%) with a median follow-up period of 1081 days. No plaque was noted in 357 (83.6%) patients. Nonsignificant CAD was noted in 33 (7.7%) individuals and 37 (8.7%) patients with significant CAD. At the end of the follow-up period, 12 (2.8%) patients experienced MACE. The annualized event rate was 0.2% in patients with no plaque, 2.0% in patients with nonsignificant CAD, and 7.3% in patients with significant CAD. Hypertension, smoking, and significant CAD in cCTA were significant predictors of MACE in univariate analysis. Moreover, cCTA remained a predictor (P < .001) of events after multivariate correction (hazard ratio: 8.345, 95% CI: 3.438-17.823, P < .001). The prevalence of CAD and MACE in young adults with an intermediate pretest likelihood of CAD was considerable. cCTA is effective in restratifying patients into either a low or high posttest risk group. These results further emphasize the usefulness of cCTA in this cohort. Copyright © 2012 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence and Clinical Trials.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, Steven N.

1989-11-01

This dissertation explores the use of a mathematical measure of statistical evidence, the log likelihood ratio, in clinical trials. The methods and thinking behind the use of an evidential measure are contrasted with traditional methods of analyzing data, which depend primarily on a p-value as an estimate of the statistical strength of an observed data pattern. It is contended that neither the behavioral dictates of Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing methods, nor the coherency dictates of Bayesian methods are realistic models on which to base inference. The use of the likelihood alone is applied to four aspects of trial design or conduct: the calculation of sample size, the monitoring of data, testing for the equivalence of two treatments, and meta-analysis--the combining of results from different trials. Finally, a more general model of statistical inference, using belief functions, is used to see if it is possible to separate the assessment of evidence from our background knowledge. It is shown that traditional and Bayesian methods can be modeled as two ends of a continuum of structured background knowledge, methods which summarize evidence at the point of maximum likelihood assuming no structure, and Bayesian methods assuming complete knowledge. Both schools are seen to be missing a concept of ignorance- -uncommitted belief. This concept provides the key to understanding the problem of sampling to a foregone conclusion and the role of frequency properties in statistical inference. The conclusion is that statistical evidence cannot be defined independently of background knowledge, and that frequency properties of an estimator are an indirect measure of uncommitted belief. Several likelihood summaries need to be used in clinical trials, with the quantitative disparity between summaries being an indirect measure of our ignorance. This conclusion is linked with parallel ideas in the philosophy of science and cognitive psychology.

Pooled diagnostic accuracy of resting distal to aortic coronary pressure referenced to fractional flow reserve: The importance of resting coronary physiology.

PubMed

Maini, Rohit; Moscona, John; Sidhu, Gursukhman; Katigbak, Paul; Fernandez, Camilo; Irimpen, Anand; Mogabgab, Owen; Ward, Charisse; Samson, Rohan; LeJemtel, Thierry

2018-04-29

Both resting and hyperemic physiologic methods to guide coronary revascularization improve cardiovascular outcomes compared with angiographic guidance alone. Fractional flow reserve (FFR) remains underutilized due to concerns regarding hyperemia, prompting study of resting distal to aortic coronary pressure (Pd/Pa). Pd/Pa is a vasodilator-free resting index unlike FFR. While Pd/Pa is similar to another resting index, instantaneous wave-free ratio (iFR), it is a whole-cycle measurement not limited to the wave-free diastolic period. Pd/Pa is not validated clinically although multiple accuracy studies have been performed. Our meta-analysis examines the overall diagnostic accuracy of Pd/Pa referenced to FFR, the accepted invasive standard of ischemia. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Central, ProQuest, and Web of Science databases for full text articles published through August 9, 2017 addressing the diagnostic accuracy of Pd/Pa referenced to FFR < 0.80. The following keywords were used: "distal coronary artery pressure" OR "Pd/Pa" AND "fractional flow reserve" OR "FFR." In total, 14 studies comprising 7004 lesions were identified. Pooled diagnostic accuracy estimates of Pd/Pa versus FFR < 0.80 were: sensitivity, 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.78); specificity, 0.82 (0.81-0.83); positive likelihood ratio, 4.7 (3.3-6.6); negative likelihood ratio, 0.29 (0.24-0.34); diagnostic odds ratio, 18.1 (14.4-22.6); area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.88; and diagnostic accuracy of 0.80 (0.76-0.83). Pd/Pa shows adequate agreement with FFR as a resting index of coronary stenosis severity without the undesired effects and cost of hyperemic agents. Pd/Pa has the potential to guide coronary revascularization with easier application and availability compared with iFR and FFR. © 2018, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An association between neighbourhood wealth inequality and HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Brodish, Paul Henry

2015-05-01

This paper investigates whether community-level wealth inequality predicts HIV serostatus using DHS household survey and HIV biomarker data for men and women ages 15-59 pooled from six sub-Saharan African countries with HIV prevalence rates exceeding 5%. The analysis relates the binary dependent variable HIV-positive serostatus and two weighted aggregate predictors generated from the DHS Wealth Index: the Gini coefficient, and the ratio of the wealth of households in the top 20% wealth quintile to that of those in the bottom 20%. In separate multilevel logistic regression models, wealth inequality is used to predict HIV prevalence within each statistical enumeration area, controlling for known individual-level demographic predictors of HIV serostatus. Potential individual-level sexual behaviour mediating variables are added to assess attenuation, and ordered logit models investigate whether the effect is mediated through extramarital sexual partnerships. Both the cluster-level wealth Gini coefficient and wealth ratio significantly predict positive HIV serostatus: a 1 point increase in the cluster-level Gini coefficient and in the cluster-level wealth ratio is associated with a 2.35 and 1.3 times increased likelihood of being HIV positive, respectively, controlling for individual-level demographic predictors, and associations are stronger in models including only males. Adding sexual behaviour variables attenuates the effects of both inequality measures. Reporting eleven plus lifetime sexual partners increases the odds of being HIV positive over five-fold. The likelihood of having more extramarital partners is significantly higher in clusters with greater wealth inequality measured by the wealth ratio. Disaggregating logit models by sex indicates important risk behaviour differences. Household wealth inequality within DHS clusters predicts HIV serostatus, and the relationship is partially mediated by more extramarital partners. These results emphasize the importance of incorporating higher-level contextual factors, investigating behavioural mediators, and disaggregating by sex in assessing HIV risk in order to uncover potential mechanisms of action and points of preventive intervention.

An association between neighborhood wealth inequality and HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Brodish, Paul Henry

2016-01-01

Summary This paper investigates whether community-level wealth inequality predicts HIV serostatus, using DHS household survey and HIV biomarker data for men and women ages 15-59 pooled from six sub-Saharan African countries with HIV prevalence rates exceeding five percent. The analysis relates the binary dependent variable HIV positive serostatus and two weighted aggregate predictors generated from the DHS Wealth Index: the Gini coefficient, and the ratio of the wealth of households in the top 20% wealth quintile to that of those in the bottom 20%. In separate multilevel logistic regression models, wealth inequality is used to predict HIV prevalence within each SEA, controlling for known individual-level demographic predictors of HIV serostatus. Potential individual-level sexual behavior mediating variables are added to assess attenuation, and ordered logit models investigate whether the effect is mediated through extramarital sexual partnerships. Both the cluster-level wealth Gini coefficient and wealth ratio significantly predict positive HIV serostatus: a 1 point increase in the cluster-level Gini coefficient and in the cluster-level wealth ratio is associated with a 2.35 and 1.3 times increased likelihood of being HIV positive, respectively, controlling for individual-level demographic predictors, and associations are stronger in models including only males. Adding sexual behavior variables attenuates the effects of both inequality measures. Reporting 11 plus lifetime sexual partners increases the odds of being HIV positive over five-fold. The likelihood of having more extramarital partners is significantly higher in clusters with greater wealth inequality measured by the wealth ratio. Disaggregating logit models by sex indicates important risk behavior differences. Household wealth inequality within DHS clusters predicts HIV serostatus, and the relationship is partially mediated by more extramarital partners. These results emphasize the importance of incorporating higher-level contextual factors, investigating behavioral mediators, and disaggregating by sex in assessing HIV risk in order to uncover potential mechanisms of action and points of preventive intervention PMID:24406021

Likelihood analysis of supersymmetric SU(5) GUTs

DOE PAGES

Bagnaschi, Emanuele; Costa, J. C.; Sakurai, K.; ...

2017-02-16

Here, we perform a likelihood analysis of the constraints from accelerator experiments and astrophysical observations on supersymmetric (SUSY) models with SU(5) boundary conditions on soft SUSY-breaking parameters at the GUT scale. The parameter space of the models studied has 7 parameters: a universal gaugino massmore » $$m_{1/2}$$, distinct masses for the scalar partners of matter fermions in five- and ten-dimensional representations of SU(5), $$m_5$$ and $$m_{10}$$, and for the $$\\mathbf{5}$$ and $$\\mathbf{\\bar 5}$$ Higgs representations $$m_{H_u}$$ and $$m_{H_d}$$, a universal trilinear soft SUSY-breaking parameter $$A_0$$, and the ratio of Higgs vevs $$\\tan \\beta$$. In addition to previous constraints from direct sparticle searches, low-energy and flavour observables, we incorporate constraints based on preliminary results from 13 TeV LHC searches for jets + MET events and long-lived particles, as well as the latest PandaX-II and LUX searches for direct Dark Matter detection. In addition to previously-identified mechanisms for bringing the supersymmetric relic density into the range allowed by cosmology, we identify a novel $${\\tilde u_R}/{\\tilde c_R} - \\tilde{\\chi}^0_1$$ coannihilation mechanism that appears in the supersymmetric SU(5) GUT model and discuss the role of $${\\tilde \

Constrained inference in mixed-effects models for longitudinal data with application to hearing loss.

PubMed

Davidov, Ori; Rosen, Sophia

2011-04-01

In medical studies, endpoints are often measured for each patient longitudinally. The mixed-effects model has been a useful tool for the analysis of such data. There are situations in which the parameters of the model are subject to some restrictions or constraints. For example, in hearing loss studies, we expect hearing to deteriorate with time. This means that hearing thresholds which reflect hearing acuity will, on average, increase over time. Therefore, the regression coefficients associated with the mean effect of time on hearing ability will be constrained. Such constraints should be accounted for in the analysis. We propose maximum likelihood estimation procedures, based on the expectation-conditional maximization either algorithm, to estimate the parameters of the model while accounting for the constraints on them. The proposed methods improve, in terms of mean square error, on the unconstrained estimators. In some settings, the improvement may be substantial. Hypotheses testing procedures that incorporate the constraints are developed. Specifically, likelihood ratio, Wald, and score tests are proposed and investigated. Their empirical significance levels and power are studied using simulations. It is shown that incorporating the constraints improves the mean squared error of the estimates and the power of the tests. These improvements may be substantial. The methodology is used to analyze a hearing loss study.

Assessment of parametric uncertainty for groundwater reactive transport modeling,

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Xiaoqing; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.; Miller, Geoffery L.; Meyer, Philip D.; Kohler, Matthias; Yabusaki, Steve; Wu, Jichun

2014-01-01

The validity of using Gaussian assumptions for model residuals in uncertainty quantification of a groundwater reactive transport model was evaluated in this study. Least squares regression methods explicitly assume Gaussian residuals, and the assumption leads to Gaussian likelihood functions, model parameters, and model predictions. While the Bayesian methods do not explicitly require the Gaussian assumption, Gaussian residuals are widely used. This paper shows that the residuals of the reactive transport model are non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and correlated in time; characterizing them requires using a generalized likelihood function such as the formal generalized likelihood function developed by Schoups and Vrugt (2010). For the surface complexation model considered in this study for simulating uranium reactive transport in groundwater, parametric uncertainty is quantified using the least squares regression methods and Bayesian methods with both Gaussian and formal generalized likelihood functions. While the least squares methods and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function produce similar Gaussian parameter distributions, the parameter distributions of Bayesian uncertainty quantification using the formal generalized likelihood function are non-Gaussian. In addition, predictive performance of formal generalized likelihood function is superior to that of least squares regression and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function. The Bayesian uncertainty quantification is conducted using the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm; as a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, it is a robust tool for quantifying uncertainty in groundwater reactive transport models. For the surface complexation model, the regression-based local sensitivity analysis and Morris- and DREAM(ZS)-based global sensitivity analysis yield almost identical ranking of parameter importance. The uncertainty analysis may help select appropriate likelihood functions, improve model calibration, and reduce predictive uncertainty in other groundwater reactive transport and environmental modeling.

Diffuse prior monotonic likelihood ratio test for evaluation of fused image quality measures.

PubMed

Wei, Chuanming; Kaplan, Lance M; Burks, Stephen D; Blum, Rick S

2011-02-01

This paper introduces a novel method to score how well proposed fused image quality measures (FIQMs) indicate the effectiveness of humans to detect targets in fused imagery. The human detection performance is measured via human perception experiments. A good FIQM should relate to perception results in a monotonic fashion. The method computes a new diffuse prior monotonic likelihood ratio (DPMLR) to facilitate the comparison of the H(1) hypothesis that the intrinsic human detection performance is related to the FIQM via a monotonic function against the null hypothesis that the detection and image quality relationship is random. The paper discusses many interesting properties of the DPMLR and demonstrates the effectiveness of the DPMLR test via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the DPMLR is used to score FIQMs with test cases considering over 35 scenes and various image fusion algorithms.

Screening for depression with a brief questionnaire in a primary care setting: validation of the two questions with help question (Malay version).

PubMed

Mohd-Sidik, Sherina; Arroll, Bruce; Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Zain, Azhar M D

2011-01-01

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of the two questions with help question (TQWHQ) in the Malay language. The two questions are case-finding questions on depression, and a question on whether help is needed was added to increase the specificity of the two questions. This cross sectional validation study was conducted in a government funded primary care clinic in Malaysia. The participants included 146 consecutive women patients receiving no psychotropic drugs and who were Malay speakers. The main outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of the two questions and help question. The two questions showed a sensitivity of 99% (95% confidence interval 88% to 99.9%) and a specificity of 70% (62% to 78%), respectively. The likelihood ratio for a positive test was 3.3 (2.5 to 4.5) and the likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.01 (0.00 to 0.57). The addition of the help question to the two questions increased the specificity to 95% (89% to 98%). The two qeustions on depression detected most cases of depression in this study. The questions have the advantage of brevity. The addition of the help question increased the specificity of the two questions. Based on these findings, the TQWHQ can be strongly recommended for detection of depression in government primary care clnics in Malaysia. Translation did not apear to affect the validity of the TQWHQ.

[Accuracy of three methods for the rapid diagnosis of oral candidiasis].

PubMed

Lyu, X; Zhao, C; Yan, Z M; Hua, H

2016-10-09

Objective: To explore a simple, rapid and efficient method for the diagnosis of oral candidiasis in clinical practice. Methods: Totally 124 consecutive patients with suspected oral candidiasis were enrolled from Department of Oral Medicine, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology, Beijing, China. Exfoliated cells of oral mucosa and saliva or concentrated oral rinse) obtained from all participants were tested by three rapid smear methods(10% KOH smear, gram-stained smear, Congo red stained smear). The diagnostic efficacy(sensitivity, specificity, Youden's index, likelihood ratio, consistency, predictive value and area under curve(AUC) of each of the above mentioned three methods was assessed by comparing the results with the gold standard(combination of clinical diagnosis, laboratory diagnosis and expert opinion). Results: Gram-stained smear of saliva(or concentrated oral rinse) demonstrated highest sensitivity(82.3%). Test of 10%KOH smear of exfoliated cells showed highest specificity(93.5%). Congo red stained smear of saliva(or concentrated oral rinse) displayed highest diagnostic efficacy(79.0% sensitivity, 80.6% specificity, 0.60 Youden's index, 4.08 positive likelihood ratio, 0.26 negative likelihood ratio, 80% consistency, 80.3% positive predictive value, 79.4% negative predictive value and 0.80 AUC). Conclusions: Test of Congo red stained smear of saliva(or concentrated oral rinse) could be used as a point-of-care tool for the rapid diagnosis of oral candidiasis in clinical practice. Trial registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR-DDD-16008118.

Recognition of depressive symptoms by physicians.

PubMed

Henriques, Sergio Gonçalves; Fráguas, Renério; Iosifescu, Dan V; Menezes, Paulo Rossi; Lucia, Mara Cristina Souza de; Gattaz, Wagner Farid; Martins, Milton Arruda

2009-01-01

To investigate the recognition of depressive symptoms of major depressive disorder (MDD) by general practitioners. MDD is underdiagnosed in medical settings, possibly because of difficulties in the recognition of specific depressive symptoms. A cross-sectional study of 316 outpatients at their first visit to a teaching general hospital. We evaluated the performance of 19 general practitioners using Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders (PRIME-MD) to detect depressive symptoms and compared them to 11 psychiatrists using Structured Clinical Interview Axis I Disorders, Patient Version (SCID I/P). We measured likelihood ratios, sensitivity, specificity, and false positive and false negative frequencies. The lowest positive likelihood ratios were for psychomotor agitation/retardation (1.6) and fatigue (1.7), mostly because of a high rate of false positive results. The highest positive likelihood ratio was found for thoughts of suicide (8.5). The lowest sensitivity, 61.8%, was found for impaired concentration. The sensitivity for worthlessness or guilt in patients with medical illness was 67.2% (95% CI, 57.4-76.9%), which is significantly lower than that found in patients without medical illness, 91.3% (95% CI, 83.2-99.4%). Less adequately identified depressive symptoms were both psychological and somatic in nature. The presence of a medical illness may decrease the sensitivity of recognizing specific depressive symptoms. Programs for training physicians in the use of diagnostic tools should consider their performance in recognizing specific depressive symptoms. Such procedures could allow for the development of specific training to aid in the detection of the most misrecognized depressive symptoms.

Excellent AUC for joint fluid cytology in the detection/exclusion of hip and knee prosthetic joint infection.

PubMed

Gallo, Jiri; Juranova, Jarmila; Svoboda, Michal; Zapletalova, Jana

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of synovial fluid (SF) white cell count (SWCC) and neutrophil/lymphocyte percentage in the diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for particular threshold values. This was a prospective study of 391 patients in whom SF specimens were collected before total joint replacement revisions. SF was aspirated before joint capsule incision. The PJI diagnosis was based only on non-SF data. Receiver operating characteristic plots were constructed for the SWCC and differential counts of leukocytes in aspirated fluid. Logistic binomic regression was used to distinguish infected and non-infected cases in the combined data. PJI was diagnosed in 78 patients, and aseptic revision in 313 patients. The areas (AUC) under the curve for the SWCC, the neutrophil and lymphocyte percentages were 0.974, 0.962, and 0.951, respectively. The optimal cut-off for PJI was 3,450 cells/μL, 74.6% neutrophils, and 14.6% lymphocytes. Positive likelihood ratios for the SWCC, neutrophil and lymphocyte percentages were 19.0, 10.4, and 9.5, respectively. Negative likelihood ratios for the SWCC, neutrophil and lymphocyte percentages were 0.06, 0.076, and 0.092, respectively. Based on AUC, the present study identified cut-off values for the SWCC and differential leukocyte count for the diagnosis of PJI. The likelihood ratio for positive/negative SWCCs can significantly change the pre-test probability of PJI.

Diagnostic accuracy of history and physical examination in bacterial acute rhinosinusitis.

PubMed

Autio, Timo J; Koskenkorva, Timo; Närkiö, Mervi; Leino, Tuomo K; Koivunen, Petri; Alho, Olli-Pekka

2015-07-01

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms, the symptom progression pattern, and clinical signs in identifying bacterial acute rhinosinusitis (ARS). We conducted an inception cohort study among 50 military recruits with ARS. We collected symptoms daily from the onset of symptoms to approximately 10 days. At 9 to 10 days, standardized data on symptoms and physical findings were gathered. A positive culture of maxillary sinus aspirate was considered to be the reference standard for bacterial ARS. At 9 to 10 days, the presence or deterioration after 5 days of any of the symptoms could not be used to diagnose bacterial ARS. Toothache had an adequate positive likelihood ratio (positive likelihood ratio [LR+] 4.4) but was too rare to be used for screening. In contrast, several physical findings at 9 to 10 days were of more diagnostic use and frequent enough for screening. Moderate or profuse (vs. none/minimal) amount of secretion in nasal passage seen in anterior rhinoscopy satisfactorily either ruled in, if present (LR+ 3.2), or ruled out, if absent (negative likelihood ratio 0.2), bacterial ARS. If any secretion was seen in the posterior pharynx or middle meatus, the probability of bacterial ARS increased markedly (LR+ 5.3 and LR+ 11.0, respectively). We found symptoms or their change to be of little use in identifying bacterial ARS. In contrast, we observed several clinical findings after 9 to 10 days of symptoms to predict bacterial ARS quite accurately. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

The Diagnostic Accuracy of Cytology for the Diagnosis of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Cancers.

PubMed

Al-Hajeili, Marwan; Alqassas, Maryam; Alomran, Astabraq; Batarfi, Bashaer; Basunaid, Bashaer; Alshail, Reem; Alaydarous, Shahad; Bokhary, Rana; Mosli, Mahmoud

2018-06-13

Although cytology testing is considered a valuable method to diagnose tumors that are difficult to access such as hepato-biliary-pancreatic (HBP) malignancies, its diagnostic accuracy remains unclear. We therefore aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of cytology testing for HBP tumors. We performed a retrospective study of all cytology samples that were used to confirm radiologically detected HBP tumors between 2002 and 2016. The cytology techniques used in our center included fine needle aspiration (FNA), brush cytology, and aspiration of bile. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated in comparison to histological confirmation. From a total of 133 medical records, we calculated an overall sensitivity of 76%, specificity of 74%, a negative likelihood ratio of 0.30, and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.9. Cytology was more accurate in diagnosing lesions of the liver (sensitivity 79%, specificity 57%) and biliary tree (sensitivity 100%, specificity 50%) compared to pancreatic (sensitivity 60%, specificity 83%) and gallbladder lesions (sensitivity 50%, specificity 85%). Cytology was more accurate in detecting primary cancers (sensitivity 77%, specificity 73%) when compared to metastatic cancers (sensitivity 73%, specificity 100%). FNA was the most frequently used cytological technique to diagnose HBP lesions (sensitivity 78.8%). Cytological testing is efficient in diagnosing HBP cancers, especially for hepatobiliary tumors. Given its relative simplicity, cost-effectiveness, and paucity of alternative diagnostic methods, cytology should still be considered as a first-line tool for diagnosing HBP malignancies. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

NGS-based likelihood ratio for identifying contributors in two- and three-person DNA mixtures.

PubMed

Chan Mun Wei, Joshua; Zhao, Zicheng; Li, Shuai Cheng; Ng, Yen Kaow

2018-06-01

DNA fingerprinting, also known as DNA profiling, serves as a standard procedure in forensics to identify a person by the short tandem repeat (STR) loci in their DNA. By comparing the STR loci between DNA samples, practitioners can calculate a probability of match to identity the contributors of a DNA mixture. Most existing methods are based on 13 core STR loci which were identified by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Analyses based on these loci of DNA mixture for forensic purposes are highly variable in procedures, and suffer from subjectivity as well as bias in complex mixture interpretation. With the emergence of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, the sequencing of billions of DNA molecules can be parallelized, thus greatly increasing throughput and reducing the associated costs. This allows the creation of new techniques that incorporate more loci to enable complex mixture interpretation. In this paper, we propose a computation for likelihood ratio that uses NGS (next generation sequencing) data for DNA testing on mixed samples. We have applied the method to 4480 simulated DNA mixtures, which consist of various mixture proportions of 8 unrelated whole-genome sequencing data. The results confirm the feasibility of utilizing NGS data in DNA mixture interpretations. We observed an average likelihood ratio as high as 285,978 for two-person mixtures. Using our method, all 224 identity tests for two-person mixtures and three-person mixtures were correctly identified. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic accuracy of intraocular pressure measurement for the detection of raised intracranial pressure: meta-analysis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Yavin, Daniel; Luu, Judy; James, Matthew T; Roberts, Derek J; Sutherland, Garnette R; Jette, Nathalie; Wiebe, Samuel

2014-09-01

Because clinical examination and imaging may be unreliable indicators of intracranial hypertension, intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement has been proposed as a noninvasive method of diagnosis. The authors conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the correlation between IOP and intracranial pressure (ICP) and the diagnostic accuracy of IOP measurement for detection of intracranial hypertension. The authors searched bibliographic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) from 1950 to March 2013, references of included studies, and conference abstracts for studies comparing IOP and invasive ICP measurement. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts, reviewed full-text articles, and extracted data. Correlation coefficients, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated using DerSimonian and Laird methods and bivariate random effects models. The I(2) statistic was used as a measure of heterogeneity. Among 355 identified citations, 12 studies that enrolled 546 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled correlation coefficient between IOP and ICP was 0.44 (95% CI 0.26-0.63, I(2) = 97.7%, p < 0.001). The summary sensitivity and specificity for IOP for diagnosing intracranial hypertension were 81% (95% CI 26%-98%, I(2) = 95.2%, p < 0.01) and 95% (95% CI 43%-100%, I(2) = 97.7%, p < 0.01), respectively. The summary positive and negative likelihood ratios were 14.8 (95% CI 0.5-417.7) and 0.2 (95% CI 0.02-1.7), respectively. When ICP and IOP measurements were taken within 1 hour of another, correlation between the measures improved. Although a modest aggregate correlation was found between IOP and ICP, the pooled diagnostic accuracy suggests that IOP measurement may be of clinical utility in the detection of intracranial hypertension. Given the significant heterogeneity between included studies, further investigation is required prior to the adoption of IOP in the evaluation of intracranial hypertension into routine practice.

The diagnostic accuracy of the Ascertain Dementia 8 questionnaire for detecting cognitive impairment in primary care in the community, clinics and hospitals: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Hsin-Hao; Sun, Fang-Ju; Yeh, Tzu-Lin; Liu, Hsueh-Erh; Huang, Hsiu-Li; Kuo, Benjamin Ing-Tiau; Huang, Hsin-Yi

2018-01-01

Abstract Background The prevalence of cognitive impairment is increasing due to the aging population, and early detection is essential clinically. The Ascertain Dementia 8 (AD8) questionnaire is a brief informant-based measure recently developed to assess early cognitive impairment, however, its overall diagnostic performance is controversial. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the AD8 for cognitive impairment. Methods All relevant studies were collected from databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library up to April 2017. We used QUADAS-2 to assess the methodological quality after the systematic search. The accuracy data and potential confounding variables were extracted from the eligible studies which included those in English and non-English. All analyses were performed using the Midas module in Stata 14.0 and Meta-DiSc 1.4 software. Results Seven relevant studies including 3728 subjects were collected, and classified into two subgroups according to the severity of cognitive impairment. The overall sensitivity (0.72, 0.91) was superior to specificity (0.67, 0.78). The pooled negative likelihood ratio (0.17, 0.13) was better than the positive likelihood ratio (2.52, 3.94). The areas under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.83 and 0.92, respectively. Meta-regression analysis showed that location (community versus non-community) may be the source of heterogeneity. The average administration time was less than 3 minutes. Conclusion Our findings suggest that the AD8 is a competitive tool for clinically screening cognitive impairment and has an optimal administration time in the busy primary care setting. Subjects with an AD8 score ≧2 should be highly suspected to have cognitive impairment and a further definite diagnosis is needed. PMID:29045636

A meta-analysis of acute alcohol use and the risk of suicide attempt

PubMed Central

Borges, Guilherme; Bagge, Courtney; Cherpitel, Cheryl J.; Conner, Kenneth; Orozco, Ricardo; Rossow, Ingeborg

2016-01-01

Background While there are reviews reporting on the prevalence of acute use of alcohol (AUA) prior to suicide attempts, no review has used a meta-analytic approach to estimate common odds ratios (OR) of the effect of AUA on suicide attempts. We aim to report the results of the first meta-analysis of controlled epidemiological studies on acute alcohol use and suicide attempt. Methods The English language literature on Medline, PsychInfo, Google Scholar, and public-use databases was searched for original articles and critical review reports on acute alcohol use and suicide attempt for the period ranging from 1996–2015. Studies had to report an OR estimate for this association. Common odds ratios and 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) from random effects in meta-analyses for any acute alcohol use and 2 levels of alcohol use on suicide attempt were calculated. Results We gathered 7 studies that provided OR estimates for the likelihood of suicide attempt by acute alcohol use, compared to those who did not drink alcohol. Studies used case-control (3) and case-crossover design (4). All studies found increased ORs for acute alcohol use on suicide attempt. Meta-analysis revealed a common OR of 6.97 (95%CI=4.77, 10.17) for any acute alcohol use. Evidence from 4 studies suggests that «low levels of acute drinking» resulted in an OR of 2.71 (95%CI=1.56, 4.71) and «high levels» had much greater odds of suicide attempt, OR of 37.18 (95%CI=17.38, 79.53). Conclusions Acute use of alcohol is associated with increased likelihood of a suicide attempt, particularly at high doses. Such data should be incorporated into estimates of the burden of disease associated with alcohol use, which are currently limited by a consideration of only alcohol’s chronic effects. Future research should focus on the mechanisms through which acute use of alcohol confers risk for attempt. PMID:27928972

Modeling of 2D diffusion processes based on microscopy data: parameter estimation and practical identifiability analysis.

PubMed

Hock, Sabrina; Hasenauer, Jan; Theis, Fabian J

2013-01-01

Diffusion is a key component of many biological processes such as chemotaxis, developmental differentiation and tissue morphogenesis. Since recently, the spatial gradients caused by diffusion can be assessed in-vitro and in-vivo using microscopy based imaging techniques. The resulting time-series of two dimensional, high-resolutions images in combination with mechanistic models enable the quantitative analysis of the underlying mechanisms. However, such a model-based analysis is still challenging due to measurement noise and sparse observations, which result in uncertainties of the model parameters. We introduce a likelihood function for image-based measurements with log-normal distributed noise. Based upon this likelihood function we formulate the maximum likelihood estimation problem, which is solved using PDE-constrained optimization methods. To assess the uncertainty and practical identifiability of the parameters we introduce profile likelihoods for diffusion processes. As proof of concept, we model certain aspects of the guidance of dendritic cells towards lymphatic vessels, an example for haptotaxis. Using a realistic set of artificial measurement data, we estimate the five kinetic parameters of this model and compute profile likelihoods. Our novel approach for the estimation of model parameters from image data as well as the proposed identifiability analysis approach is widely applicable to diffusion processes. The profile likelihood based method provides more rigorous uncertainty bounds in contrast to local approximation methods.

Determining an anthropometric surrogate measure for identifying low birth weight babies in Uganda: a hospital-based cross sectional study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Achieving Millennium Development Goal 4 is dependent on significantly reducing neonatal mortality. Low birth weight is an underlying factor in most neonatal deaths. In developing countries the missed opportunity for providing life saving care is mainly a result of failure to identify low birth weight newborns. This study aimed at identifying a reliable anthropometric measurement for screening low birth weight and determining an operational cut-off point in the Uganda setting. This simple measurement is required because of lack of weighing scales in the community, and sometimes in the health facilities. Methods This was a hospital-based cross-sectional study. Two midwives weighed 706 newborns and measured their foot length, head, chest, thigh and mid-upper arm circumferences within 24 hours after birth. Data was analysed using STATA version 10.0. Correlation with birth weight using Pearson’s correlation coefficient and Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analysis were done to determine the measure that best predicts birth weight. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for a range of measures to obtain operational cut-off points; and Likelihood Ratios and Diagnostic Odds Ratio were determined for each cut-off point. Results Birth weights ranged from 1370–5350 grams with a mean of 3050 grams (SD 0.53) and 85 (12%) babies weighed less than 2500 grams. All anthropometric measurements had a positive correlation with birth weight, with foot length showing the strongest (r = 0.76) and thigh circumference the weakest (r = 0.62) correlations. Foot length had the highest predictive value for low birth weight (AUC = 0.97) followed by mid-upper arm circumference (AUC = 0.94). Foot length and chest circumference had the highest sensitivity (94%) and specificity (90%) respectively for screening low birth weight babies at the selected cut-off points. Chest circumference had a significantly higher positive likelihood ratio (8.7) than any other measure, and foot length had the lowest negative likelihood ratio. Chest circumference and foot length had diagnostic odds ratios of 97% and 77% respectively. Foot length was easier to measure and it involved minimal exposure of the baby to cold. A cut-off of foot length 7.9 cm had sensitivity of 94% and specificity of 83% for predicting low birth weight. Conclusions This study suggests foot length as the most appropriate predictor for low birth weight in comparison to chest, head, mid-upper arm and thigh circumference in the Uganda setting. Use of low cost and easy to use tools to identify low birth weight babies by village health teams could support community efforts to save newborns. PMID:23587297

Stable indications of relic gravitational waves in Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe data and forecasts for the Planck mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Baskaran, D.; Grishchuk, L. P.

2009-10-01

The relic gravitational waves are the cleanest probe of the violent times in the very early history of the Universe. They are expected to leave signatures in the observed cosmic microwave background anisotropies. We significantly improved our previous analysis [W. Zhao, D. Baskaran, and L. P. Grishchuk, Phys. Rev. DPRVDAQ1550-7998 79, 023002 (2009)10.1103/PhysRevD.79.023002] of the 5-year WMAP TT and TE data at lower multipoles ℓ. This more general analysis returned essentially the same maximum likelihood result (unfortunately, surrounded by large remaining uncertainties): The relic gravitational waves are present and they are responsible for approximately 20% of the temperature quadrupole. We identify and discuss the reasons by which the contribution of gravitational waves can be overlooked in a data analysis. One of the reasons is a misleading reliance on data from very high multipoles ℓ and another a too narrow understanding of the problem as the search for B modes of polarization, rather than the detection of relic gravitational waves with the help of all correlation functions. Our analysis of WMAP5 data has led to the identification of a whole family of models characterized by relatively high values of the likelihood function. Using the Fisher matrix formalism we formulated forecasts for Planck mission in the context of this family of models. We explore in detail various “optimistic,” “pessimistic,” and “dream case” scenarios. We show that in some circumstances the B-mode detection may be very inconclusive, at the level of signal-to-noise ratio S/N=1.75, whereas a smarter data analysis can reveal the same gravitational wave signal at S/N=6.48. The final result is encouraging. Even under unfavorable conditions in terms of instrumental noises and foregrounds, the relic gravitational waves, if they are characterized by the maximum likelihood parameters that we found from WMAP5 data, will be detected by Planck at the level S/N=3.65.

Ultrasonography guidance reduces complications and costs associated with thoracentesis procedures.

PubMed

Patel, Pankaj A; Ernst, Frank R; Gunnarsson, Candace L

2012-01-01

PURPOSE.: We performed an analysis of hospitalizations involving thoracentesis procedures to determine whether the use of ultrasonographic (US) guidance is associated with differences in complications or hospital costs as compared with not using US guidance. METHODS.: We used the Premier hospital database to identify patients with ICD-9 coded thoracentesis in 2008. Use of US guidance was identified using CPT-4 codes. We performed univariate and multivariable analyses of cost data and adjusted for patient demographics, hospital characteristics, patient morbidity severity, and mortality. Logistic regression models were developed for pneumothorax and hemorrhage adverse events, controlling for patient demographics, morbidity severity, mortality, and hospital size. RESULTS.: Of 19,339 thoracentesis procedures, 46% were performed with US guidance. Mean total hospitalization costs were $11,786 (±$10,535) and $12,408 (±$13,157) for patients with and without US guidance, respectively (p < 0.001). Unadjusted risk of pneumothorax or hemorrhage was lower with US guidance (p = 0.019 and 0.078, respectively). Logistic regression analyses demonstrate that US is associated with a 16.3% reduction likelihood of pneumothorax (adjusted odds ratio 0.837, 95% CI: 0.73-0.96; p= 0.014), and 38.7% reduction in likelihood of hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.613, 95% CI: 0.36-1.04; p = 0.071). CONCLUSIONS.: US-guided thoracentesis is associated with lower total hospital stay costs and lower incidence of pneumothorax and hemorrhage. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Ultrasound, 2011. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Diagnostic value of KLK6 as an ovarian cancer biomarker: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Hu, Zhi-DE; Chen, Yingjian; Hu, Cheng-Jin

2016-06-01

Kallikrein-related peptidase 6 (KLK6) is a new potential serum biomarker of ovarian cancer. The aim of the present study was to assess the diagnostic value of KLK6 systematically for ovarian cancer. All the selected studies regarding the changes of KLK6 in ovarian cancer were published prior to April 2015. Five studies involving 485 patients with ovarian cancer, 420 benign cysts and 245 healthy controls met the inclusion criteria. The value of sensitivity, specificity, positive-likelihood ratio (LR+), negative-likelihood ratio (LR-) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were obtained. All these indices were used to evaluate the diagnostic value of KLK6 for ovarian cancer. The values of sensitivity, specificity, LR+ and LR- (95% confidence interval) of KLK6 were 0.50 (0.47-0.54), 0.91 (0.89-0.93), 7.20 (3.34-15.52) and 0.51 (0.43-0.62), respectively. The area under the summary ROC of KLK6 was 0.86. The index of Q* was 0.79. In conclusion, KLK6 showed high specificity for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer. It can improve the diagnostic accuracy of cancer antigen 125 (CA125). A combined panel of CA125 and KL K6 shows a high diagnostic efficiency for advanced ovarian cancer. Owing to the small number of studies and lack of samples, additional studies meeting the inclusion criteria are required to further analyze the diagnostic value of KLK6 for ovarian cancer.

Higher-Order Asymptotics and Its Application to Testing the Equality of the Examinee Ability Over Two Sets of Items.

PubMed

Sinharay, Sandip; Jensen, Jens Ledet

2018-06-27

In educational and psychological measurement, researchers and/or practitioners are often interested in examining whether the ability of an examinee is the same over two sets of items. Such problems can arise in measurement of change, detection of cheating on unproctored tests, erasure analysis, detection of item preknowledge, etc. Traditional frequentist approaches that are used in such problems include the Wald test, the likelihood ratio test, and the score test (e.g., Fischer, Appl Psychol Meas 27:3-26, 2003; Finkelman, Weiss, & Kim-Kang, Appl Psychol Meas 34:238-254, 2010; Glas & Dagohoy, Psychometrika 72:159-180, 2007; Guo & Drasgow, Int J Sel Assess 18:351-364, 2010; Klauer & Rettig, Br J Math Stat Psychol 43:193-206, 1990; Sinharay, J Educ Behav Stat 42:46-68, 2017). This paper shows that approaches based on higher-order asymptotics (e.g., Barndorff-Nielsen & Cox, Inference and asymptotics. Springer, London, 1994; Ghosh, Higher order asymptotics. Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Hayward, 1994) can also be used to test for the equality of the examinee ability over two sets of items. The modified signed likelihood ratio test (e.g., Barndorff-Nielsen, Biometrika 73:307-322, 1986) and the Lugannani-Rice approximation (Lugannani & Rice, Adv Appl Prob 12:475-490, 1980), both of which are based on higher-order asymptotics, are shown to provide some improvement over the traditional frequentist approaches in three simulations. Two real data examples are also provided.

Power calculations for likelihood ratio tests for offspring genotype risks, maternal effects, and parent-of-origin (POO) effects in the presence of missing parental genotypes when unaffected siblings are available.

PubMed

Rampersaud, E; Morris, R W; Weinberg, C R; Speer, M C; Martin, E R

2007-01-01

Genotype-based likelihood-ratio tests (LRT) of association that examine maternal and parent-of-origin effects have been previously developed in the framework of log-linear and conditional logistic regression models. In the situation where parental genotypes are missing, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been incorporated in the log-linear approach to allow incomplete triads to contribute to the LRT. We present an extension to this model which we call the Combined_LRT that incorporates additional information from the genotypes of unaffected siblings to improve assignment of incompletely typed families to mating type categories, thereby improving inference of missing parental data. Using simulations involving a realistic array of family structures, we demonstrate the validity of the Combined_LRT under the null hypothesis of no association and provide power comparisons under varying levels of missing data and using sibling genotype data. We demonstrate the improved power of the Combined_LRT compared with the family-based association test (FBAT), another widely used association test. Lastly, we apply the Combined_LRT to a candidate gene analysis in Autism families, some of which have missing parental genotypes. We conclude that the proposed log-linear model will be an important tool for future candidate gene studies, for many complex diseases where unaffected siblings can often be ascertained and where epigenetic factors such as imprinting may play a role in disease etiology.

Diagnostic Value of Run Chart Analysis: Using Likelihood Ratios to Compare Run Chart Rules on Simulated Data Series

PubMed Central

Anhøj, Jacob

2015-01-01

Run charts are widely used in healthcare improvement, but there is little consensus on how to interpret them. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the diagnostic properties of different sets of run chart rules. A run chart is a line graph of a quality measure over time. The main purpose of the run chart is to detect process improvement or process degradation, which will turn up as non-random patterns in the distribution of data points around the median. Non-random variation may be identified by simple statistical tests including the presence of unusually long runs of data points on one side of the median or if the graph crosses the median unusually few times. However, there is no general agreement on what defines “unusually long” or “unusually few”. Other tests of questionable value are frequently used as well. Three sets of run chart rules (Anhoej, Perla, and Carey rules) have been published in peer reviewed healthcare journals, but these sets differ significantly in their sensitivity and specificity to non-random variation. In this study I investigate the diagnostic values expressed by likelihood ratios of three sets of run chart rules for detection of shifts in process performance using random data series. The study concludes that the Anhoej rules have good diagnostic properties and are superior to the Perla and the Carey rules. PMID:25799549

Team climate, intention to leave and turnover among hospital employees: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Vanhala, Anna; Pentti, Jaana; Länsisalmi, Hannakaisa; Virtanen, Marianna; Elovainio, Marko; Vahtera, Jussi

2007-10-23

In hospitals, the costs of employee turnover are substantial and intentions to leave among staff may manifest as lowered performance. We examined whether team climate, as indicated by clear and shared goals, participation, task orientation and support for innovation, predicts intention to leave the job and actual turnover among hospital employees. Prospective study with baseline and follow-up surveys (2-4 years apart). The participants were 6,441 (785 men, 5,656 women) hospital employees under the age of 55 at the time of follow-up survey. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used as an analysis method to include both individual and work unit level predictors in the models. Among stayers with no intention to leave at baseline, lower self-reported team climate predicted higher likelihood of having intentions to leave at follow-up (odds ratio per 1 standard deviation decrease in team climate was 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-1.8). Lower co-worker assessed team climate at follow-up was also association with such intentions (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.4-2.4). Among all participants, the likelihood of actually quitting the job was higher for those with poor self-reported team climate at baseline. This association disappeared after adjustment for intention to leave at baseline suggesting that such intentions may explain the greater turnover rate among employees with low team climate. Improving team climate may reduce intentions to leave and turnover among hospital employees.

Varicocele is associated with hypogonadism and impaired erectile function: a prospective comparative study.

PubMed

Ji, B; Jin, X-B

2017-08-01

We conducted this prospective comparative study to examine the hypothesis that varicocele was associated with hypogonadism and impaired erectile function as reflected in International Index of Erectile Function-5 (IIEF-5) scores as well as nocturnal penile tumescence and rigidity (NPTR) parameters. From December 2014 to December 2015, a total of 130 males with varicocele complaining of infertility or scrotal discomfort and 130 age-matched healthy males chosen from volunteer healthy hospital staff as controls were recruited in this study. Serum testosterone (TT) levels and IIEF-5 scores as well as NPTR parameters were evaluated and compared between varicocele and control subjects. All participants were further grouped into hypogonadism based on the cut-off value 300 ng/dL. A total of 45 of 130 patients were identified as hypogonadism, while it was not found in control subjects. A multivariate logistic regression with likelihood ratio test revealed that TT levels as well as grade III and II varicocele posed significant indicators for hypogonadism occurrence (chi-square of likelihood ratio = 12.40, df = 3, p < .01). Furthermore, TT levels and infertility duration were associated with IIEF-5 scores in a multivariate linear regression analysis (adjusted R 2  = 0.545). In conclusion, the correlation of grade III and II varicocele with an increased risk of hypogonadism was confirmed in this study and an impaired erectile function correlated with TT levels and infertility duration was also observed. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

THESEUS: maximum likelihood superpositioning and analysis of macromolecular structures

PubMed Central

Theobald, Douglas L.; Wuttke, Deborah S.

2008-01-01

Summary THESEUS is a command line program for performing maximum likelihood (ML) superpositions and analysis of macromolecular structures. While conventional superpositioning methods use ordinary least-squares (LS) as the optimization criterion, ML superpositions provide substantially improved accuracy by down-weighting variable structural regions and by correcting for correlations among atoms. ML superpositioning is robust and insensitive to the specific atoms included in the analysis, and thus it does not require subjective pruning of selected variable atomic coordinates. Output includes both likelihood-based and frequentist statistics for accurate evaluation of the adequacy of a superposition and for reliable analysis of structural similarities and differences. THESEUS performs principal components analysis for analyzing the complex correlations found among atoms within a structural ensemble. PMID:16777907

Factors Associated With Breastfeeding Duration Among Connecticut Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Participants

PubMed Central

Haughton, Jannett; Gregorio, David; Pérez-Escamilla, Rafael

2011-01-01

This retrospective study aimed to identify factors associated with breastfeeding duration among women enrolled in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) of Hartford, Connecticut. The authors included mothers whose children were younger than 5 years and had stopped breastfeeding (N = 155). Women who had planned their pregnancies were twice as likely as those who did not plan them to breastfeed for more than 6 months (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–4.64). One additional year of maternal age was associated with a 9% increase on the likelihood of breastfeeding for more than 6 months (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.17). Time in the United States was inversely associated with the likelihood of breastfeeding for more than 6 months (odds ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.92–0.99). Return to work, sore nipples, lack of access to breast pumps, and free formula provided by WIC were identified as breastfeeding barriers. Findings can help WIC improve its breastfeeding promotion efforts. PMID:20689103

Pleural Touch Preparations and Direct Visualization of the Pleura during Medical Thoracoscopy for the Diagnosis of Malignancy.

PubMed

Grosu, Horiana B; Vial-Rodriguez, Macarena; Vakil, Erik; Casal, Roberto F; Eapen, George A; Morice, Rodolfo; Stewart, John; Sarkiss, Mona G; Ost, David E

2017-08-01

During diagnostic thoracoscopy, talc pleurodesis after biopsy is appropriate if the probability of malignancy is sufficiently high. Findings on direct visual assessment of the pleura during thoracoscopy, rapid onsite evaluation (ROSE) of touch preparations (touch preps) of thoracoscopic biopsy specimens, and preoperative imaging may help predict the likelihood of malignancy; however, data on the performance of these methods are limited. To assess the performance of ROSE of touch preps, direct visual assessment of the pleura during thoracoscopy, and preoperative imaging in diagnosing malignancy. Patients who underwent ROSE of touch preps during thoracoscopy for suspected malignancy were retrospectively reviewed. Malignancy was diagnosed on the basis of final pathologic examination of pleural biopsy specimens. ROSE results were categorized as malignant, benign, or atypical cells. Visual assessment results were categorized as tumor studding present or absent. Positron emission tomography (PET) and computed tomography (CT) findings were categorized as abnormal or normal pleura. Likelihood ratios were calculated for each category of test result. The study included 44 patients, 26 (59%) with a final pathologic diagnosis of malignancy. Likelihood ratios were as follows: for ROSE of touch preps: malignant, 1.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-4.34); atypical cells, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.21-2.27); benign, 0.11 (95% CI, 0.01-0.93); for direct visual assessment: tumor studding present, 3.63 (95% CI, 1.32-9.99); tumor studding absent, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09-0.64); for PET: abnormal pleura, 9.39 (95% CI, 1.42-62); normal pleura, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11-0.52); and for CT: abnormal pleura, 13.15 (95% CI, 1.93-89.63); normal pleura, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.15-0.54). A finding of no malignant cells on ROSE of touch preps during thoracoscopy lowers the likelihood of malignancy significantly, whereas finding of tumor studding on direct visual assessment during thoracoscopy only moderately increases the likelihood of malignancy. A positive finding on PET and/or CT increases the likelihood of malignancy significantly in a moderate-risk patient group and can be used as an adjunct to predict malignancy before pleurodesis.

Statistical inference for tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio.

PubMed

Wu, Jianrong

2010-09-01

The tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio is commonly used to quantify treatment effects in drug screening tumor xenograft experiments. The T/C ratio is converted to an antitumor activity rating using an arbitrary cutoff point and often without any formal statistical inference. Here, we applied a nonparametric bootstrap method and a small sample likelihood ratio statistic to make a statistical inference of the T/C ratio, including both hypothesis testing and a confidence interval estimate. Furthermore, sample size and power are also discussed for statistical design of tumor xenograft experiments. Tumor xenograft data from an actual experiment were analyzed to illustrate the application.

Accuracy of autotitrating CPAP to estimate the residual Apnea-Hypopnea Index in patients with obstructive sleep apnea on treatment with autotitrating CPAP.

PubMed

Desai, Himanshu; Patel, Anil; Patel, Pinal; Grant, Brydon J B; Mador, M Jeffery

2009-11-01

Autotitrating continuous positive airway pressure (auto-CPAP) devices now have a smart card (a pocket-sized card with embedded integrated circuits which records data from the CPAP machine such as CPAP usage, CPAP pressure, large leak, etc.) which can estimate the Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) on therapy. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of auto-CPAP in estimating the residual AHI in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) who were treated with auto-CPAP without a CPAP titration study. We studied 99 patients with OSA from April 2005 to May 2007 who underwent a repeat sleep study using auto-CPAP. The estimated AHI from auto-CPAP was compared with the AHI from an overnight polysomnogram (PSG) on auto-CPAP using Bland-Altman plot and likelihood ratio analyses. A PSG AHI cutoff of five events per hour was used to differentiate patients optimally treated with auto-CPAP from those with residual OSA on therapy. Bland and Altman analysis showed good agreement between auto-CPAP AHI and PSG AHI. There was no significant bias when smart card estimates of AHI at home were compared to smart card estimates obtained in the sleep laboratory. An auto-CPAP cutoff for the AHI of six events per hour was shown to be optimal for differentiating patients with and without residual OSA with a sensitivity of 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 0.98) and specificity of 0.90 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.95) with a positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 9.6 (95% CI 5.1 to 21.5) and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.085 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.25). Auto-CPAP AHI of eight events per hour yielded the optimal sensitivity (0.94, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.99) and specificity (0.90, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.95) with a positive LR of 9.6 (95% CI 5.23 to 20.31) and a negative LR of 0.065 (95% CI 0.004 to 0.279) to identify patients with a PSG AHI of > or = 10 events per hour. Auto-CPAP estimate of AHI may be used to estimate residual AHI in patients with OSA of varying severity treated with auto-CPAP.

Centralization as a predictor of provocation discography results in chronic low back pain, and the influence of disability and distress on diagnostic power.

PubMed

Laslett, Mark; Oberg, Birgitta; Aprill, Charles N; McDonald, Barry

2005-01-01

The "centralization phenomenon" (CP) is the progressive retreat of referred pain towards the spinal midline in response to repeated movement testing (a McKenzie evaluation). A previous study suggested that it may have utility in the clinical diagnosis of discogenic pain and may assist patient selection for discography and specific treatments for disc pain. Estimation of the diagnostic predictive power of centralization and the influence of disability and patient distress on diagnostic performance, using provocation discography as a criterion standard for diagnosis, in chronic low back pain patients. This study was a prospective, blinded, concurrent, reference standard-related validity design carried out in a private radiology clinic specializing in diagnosis of chronic spinal pain. Consecutive patients with persistent low back pain were referred to the study clinic by orthopedists and other medical specialists for interventional radiological diagnostic procedures. Patients were typically disabled and displayed high levels of psychosocial distress. The sample included patients with previous lumbar surgery, and most had unsuccessful conservative therapies previously. results of provocation discography. The CP. Psychometric evaluation: Roland-Morris, Zung, Modified Somatic Perception questionnaires, Distress Risk Assessment Method, and 100-mm visual analog scales for pain intensity. Patients received a single physical therapy examination, followed by lumbar provocation discography. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of the CP were estimated in the group as a whole and in subgroups defined by psychometric measures. A total of 107 patients received the clinical examination and discography at two or more levels and post-discography computed tomography. Thirty-eight could not tolerate a full physical examination and were excluded from the main analysis. Disability and pain intensity ratings were high, and distress was common. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratios for centralization observed during repeated movement testing for pain distribution and intensity changes were 40%, 94%, and 6.9 respectively. In the presence of severe disability, sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratios were 46%, 80%, 3.2 and for distress, 45%, 89%, 4.1. In the subgroups with moderate, minimal, or no disability, sensitivity and specificity were 37%, 100% and for no or minimal distress 35%, 100%. Centralization is highly specific to positive discography but specificity is reduced in the presence of severe disability or psychosocial distress.

Case-only analyses of the associations between polymorphisms in the metastasis modifying genes BRMS1 and SIPA1 and breast tumor characteristics, lymph node metastasis, and survival

PubMed Central

Roberts, Michelle R.; Hong, Chi-Chen; Edge, Stephen B.; Yao, Song; Bshara, Wiam; Higgins, Michael J.; Freudenheim, Jo L.; Ambrosone, Christine B.

2013-01-01

Introduction Lymph node metastases and tumor characteristics predict breast cancer prognosis but correlate imperfectly with likelihood of metastatic relapse. Discovery of genetic polymorphisms affecting metastasis may improve identification of patients requiring aggressive adjuvant therapy to prevent recurrence. We investigated associations between several variants in the BRMS1 and SIPA1 metastasis-modifying genes and lymph node metastases, tumor subtype and grade, recurrence, disease-free survival and overall survival. Methods This cross-sectional and prospective prognostic analysis included 859 patients who received surgery for incident breast cancer at Roswell Park Cancer Institute, participated in the DataBank and BioRepository shared resource, and had DNA, clinical, and pathology data available for analysis. Genotyping for BRMS1 (rs11537993, rs3116068, and rs1052566) and SIPA1 (rs75894763, rs746429, rs3741378, and rs2306364) polymorphisms was performed using Sequenom® iPLEX Gold and Taqman® real-time PCR assays. Logistic and Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and hazard ratios (HR), respectively. Results BRMS1 rs1052566 heterozygous individuals were more likely to have node positive tumors (OR=1.58, 95% CI 1.13-2.23), although there was no dose-response relationship, and those with at least one variant allele were less likely to have the luminal B subtype (AG+AA: OR=0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.98). BRMS1 rs3116068 was associated with increased likelihood of having the luminal B and the HER2-enriched tumor subtype (Ptrend=0.03). Two SIPA1 SNPs, rs746429 and rs2306364, were associated with decreased risk of triple negative tumors (Ptrend=0.04 and 0.07, respectively). Presence of 8 or more risk alleles was associated with an increased likelihood of having a node positive tumor (OR=2.14, 95% CI 1.18-3.36, Ptrend = 0.002). There were no significant associations with survival. Conclusions Polymorphisms in metastasis-associated genes may be related to tumor characteristics and lymph node metastasis, but not survival. Future evaluation of metastasis modifying gene variants is necessary to better understand the biology of metastasis. PMID:23771732

Case-only analyses of the associations between polymorphisms in the metastasis-modifying genes BRMS1 and SIPA1 and breast tumor characteristics, lymph node metastasis, and survival.

PubMed

Roberts, Michelle R; Hong, Chi-Chen; Edge, Stephen B; Yao, Song; Bshara, Wiam; Higgins, Michael J; Freudenheim, Jo L; Ambrosone, Christine B

2013-06-01

Lymph node metastases and tumor characteristics predict breast cancer prognosis but correlate imperfectly with likelihood of metastatic relapse. Discovery of genetic polymorphisms affecting metastasis may improve identification of patients requiring aggressive adjuvant therapy to prevent recurrence. We investigated associations between several variants in the BRMS1 and SIPA1 metastasis-modifying genes and lymph node metastases, tumor subtype and grade, recurrence, disease-free survival, and overall survival. This cross-sectional and prospective prognostic analysis included 859 patients who received surgery for incident breast cancer at Roswell Park Cancer Institute, participated in the DataBank and BioRepository shared resource, and had DNA, clinical, and pathology data available for analysis. Genotyping for BRMS1 (rs11537993, rs3116068, and rs1052566) and SIPA1 (rs75894763, rs746429, rs3741378, and rs2306364) polymorphisms was performed using Sequenom(®) iPLEX Gold and Taqman(®) real-time PCR assays. Logistic and Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and hazard ratios (HR), respectively. BRMS1 rs1052566 heterozygous individuals were more likely to have node-positive tumors (OR = 1.58, 95 % CI 1.13-2.23), although there was no dose-response relationship, and those with at least one variant allele were less likely to have the luminal B subtype (AG + AA: OR = 0.59, 95 % CI 0.36-0.98). BRMS1 rs3116068 was associated with increased likelihood of having the luminal B and the HER2-enriched tumor subtype (P trend = 0.03). Two SIPA1 SNPs, rs746429 and rs2306364, were associated with decreased risk of triple-negative tumors (P trend = 0.04 and 0.07, respectively). Presence of 8 or more risk alleles was associated with an increased likelihood of having a node-positive tumor (OR = 2.14, 95 % CI 1.18-3.36, P trend = 0.002). There were no significant associations with survival. Polymorphisms in metastasis-associated genes may be related to tumor characteristics and lymph node metastasis, but not survival. Future evaluation of metastasis-modifying gene variants is necessary to better understand the biology of metastasis.

Variance change point detection for fractional Brownian motion based on the likelihood ratio test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharczyk, Daniel; Wyłomańska, Agnieszka; Sikora, Grzegorz

2018-01-01

Fractional Brownian motion is one of the main stochastic processes used for describing the long-range dependence phenomenon for self-similar processes. It appears that for many real time series, characteristics of the data change significantly over time. Such behaviour one can observe in many applications, including physical and biological experiments. In this paper, we present a new technique for the critical change point detection for cases where the data under consideration are driven by fractional Brownian motion with a time-changed diffusion coefficient. The proposed methodology is based on the likelihood ratio approach and represents an extension of a similar methodology used for Brownian motion, the process with independent increments. Here, we also propose a statistical test for testing the significance of the estimated critical point. In addition to that, an extensive simulation study is provided to test the performance of the proposed method.

PAMLX: a graphical user interface for PAML.

PubMed

Xu, Bo; Yang, Ziheng

2013-12-01

This note announces pamlX, a graphical user interface/front end for the paml (for Phylogenetic Analysis by Maximum Likelihood) program package (Yang Z. 1997. PAML: a program package for phylogenetic analysis by maximum likelihood. Comput Appl Biosci. 13:555-556; Yang Z. 2007. PAML 4: Phylogenetic analysis by maximum likelihood. Mol Biol Evol. 24:1586-1591). pamlX is written in C++ using the Qt library and communicates with paml programs through files. It can be used to create, edit, and print control files for paml programs and to launch paml runs. The interface is available for free download at http://abacus.gene.ucl.ac.uk/software/paml.html.

Psoriasis and suicidality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Singh, Sanminder; Taylor, Catherine; Kornmehl, Heather; Armstrong, April W

2017-09-01

Psoriasis is associated with psychiatric comorbidities; however, the relationship between psoriasis and suicidality is not well understood. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis that elucidates the relationship between psoriasis and suicidality. Applying the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, we systematically searched the PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and Cochrane databases. We searched literature published between 1946 and 2017. We identified 18 studies with a total of 1,767,583 participants, of whom 330,207 had psoriasis. On the basis of random effects modeling, the pooled odds ratio (OR) for suicidal ideation among patients with psoriasis was 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54-2.74). Patients with psoriasis were more likely to exhibit suicidal behaviors (combined attempted and completed suicides) with a pooled OR of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.13-1.40). Subgroup analysis showed that patients with psoriasis were more likely to attempt suicides (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.14-1.54) and complete suicide (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04-1.39) than those without psoriasis. More severe psoriasis and younger age were associated with greater likelihood of suicidality. There are few studies examining suicidality in conjunction with psoriasis severity. Patients with psoriasis have a significantly higher likelihood of suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and completed suicides. Among patients with psoriasis, those who are younger and whose psoriasis is more severe are at particular risk for suicidality. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Non-Linear Cosmological Power Spectra in Real and Redshift Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, A. N.; Hamilton, A. J. S.

1996-01-01

We present an expression for the non-linear evolution of the cosmological power spectrum based on Lagrangian trajectories. This is simplified using the Zel'dovich approximation to trace particle displacements, assuming Gaussian initial conditions. The model is found to exhibit the transfer of power from large to small scales expected in self-gravitating fields. Some exact solutions are found for power-law initial spectra. We have extended this analysis into red-shift space and found a solution for the non-linear, anisotropic redshift-space power spectrum in the limit of plane-parallel redshift distortions. The quadrupole-to-monopole ratio is calculated for the case of power-law initial spectra. We find that the shape of this ratio depends on the shape of the initial spectrum, but when scaled to linear theory depends only weakly on the redshift-space distortion parameter, beta. The point of zero-crossing of the quadrupole, kappa(sub o), is found to obey a simple scaling relation and we calculate this scale in the Zel'dovich approximation. This model is found to be in good agreement with a series of N-body simulations on scales down to the zero-crossing of the quadrupole, although the wavenumber at zero-crossing is underestimated. These results are applied to the quadrupole-to-monopole ratio found in the merged QDOT plus 1.2-Jy-IRAS redshift survey. Using a likelihood technique we have estimated that the distortion parameter is constrained to be beta greater than 0.5 at the 95 percent level. Our results are fairly insensitive to the local primordial spectral slope, but the likelihood analysis suggests n = -2 un the translinear regime. The zero-crossing scale of the quadrupole is k(sub 0) = 0.5 +/- 0.1 h Mpc(exp -1) and from this we infer that the amplitude of clustering is sigma(sub 8) = 0.7 +/- 0.05. We suggest that the success of this model is due to non-linear redshift-space effects arising from infall on to caustic and is not dominated by virialized cluster cores. The latter should start to dominate on scales below the zero-crossing of the quadrupole, where our model breaks down.

Support for Relatives Bereaved by Psychiatric Patient Suicide: National Confidential Inquiry Into Suicide and Homicide Findings.

PubMed

Pitman, Alexandra L; Hunt, Isabelle M; McDonnell, Sharon J; Appleby, Louis; Kapur, Navneet

2017-04-01

International suicide prevention strategies recommend providing support to families bereaved by suicide. The study objectives were to measure the proportion of cases in which psychiatric professionals contact next of kin after a patient's suicide and to investigate whether specific, potentially stigmatizing patient characteristics influence whether the family is contacted. Annual survey data from England and Wales (2003-2012) were used to identify 11,572 suicide cases among psychiatric patients. Multivariate regression analysis was used to describe the association between specific covariates (chosen on the basis of clinical judgment and the published literature) and the probability that psychiatric staff would contact bereaved relatives of the deceased. Relatives were not contacted after the death in 33% of cases. Contrary to the hypothesis, a violent method of suicide was independently associated with greater likelihood of contact with relatives (adjusted odds ratio=1.67). Four patient factors (forensic history, unemployment, and primary diagnosis of alcohol or drug dependence or misuse) were independently associated with less likelihood of contact with relatives. Patients' race-ethnicity and recent alcohol or drug misuse were not associated with contact with relatives. Four stigmatizing patient-related factors reduced the likelihood of contacting next of kin after patient suicide, suggesting inequitable access to support after a potentially traumatic bereavement. Given the association of suicide bereavement with suicide attempt, and the possibility of relatives' shared risk factors for suicide, British psychiatric services should provide more support to relatives after patient suicide.

Relationship between two indicators of coronary risk estimated by the Framingham Risk Score and the number of metabolic syndrome components in Japanese male manufacturing workers.

PubMed

Kawada, Tomoyuki; Otsuka, Toshiaki; Inagaki, Hirofumi; Wakayama, Yoko; Li, Qing; Katsumata, Masao

2009-10-01

The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) has frequently been used in the United States to predict the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Components of the metabolic syndrome and several lifestyle factors have also been evaluated to estimate the risk of CHD. To determine the relationship between the FRS and components of metabolic syndrome as coronary risk indicators, the authors conducted a cross-sectional study of 2,619 Japanese male workers, ranging in age from 40 to 64 years, at a single workplace. Although the estimation by the FRS and metabolic syndrome involved some different factors, significant association of the risk estimated by the 2 methods was observed. When logistic regression analysis was conducted with adjustment for several lifestyle factors, the FRS and serum insulin were found to be significantly associated with the risk of likelihood of metabolic syndrome. The odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of FRS by per standard deviation increment and serum insulin by increasing 1 microIU/mL for the prediction of metabolic syndrome were 2.50 (2.17-2.88) and 1.24 (1.20-1.27), respectively. A preventive effect of abstaining from drinking every day and eating breakfast almost daily against the likelihood of metabolic syndrome was also observed. In conclusion, the FRS and insulin were found to be significantly associated with the risk of likelihood of metabolic syndrome, even after controlling for weight change.

Diagnostic test accuracy of nutritional tools used to identify undernutrition in patients with colorectal cancer: a systematic review.

PubMed

Håkonsen, Sasja Jul; Pedersen, Preben Ulrich; Bath-Hextall, Fiona; Kirkpatrick, Pamela

2015-05-15

Effective nutritional screening, nutritional care planning and nutritional support are essential in all settings, and there is no doubt that a health service seeking to increase safety and clinical effectiveness must take nutritional care seriously. Screening and early detection of malnutrition is crucial in identifying patients at nutritional risk. There is a high prevalence of malnutrition in hospitalized patients undergoing treatment for colorectal cancer. To synthesize the best available evidence regarding the diagnostic test accuracy of nutritional tools (sensitivity and specificity) used to identify malnutrition (specifically undernutrition) in patients with colorectal cancer (such as the Malnutrition Screening Tool and Nutritional Risk Index) compared to reference tests (such as the Subjective Global Assessment or Patient Generated Subjective Global Assessment). Patients with colorectal cancer requiring either (or all) surgery, chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy in secondary care. Focus of the review: The diagnostic test accuracy of validated assessment tools/instruments (such as the Malnutrition Screening Tool and Nutritional Risk Index) in the diagnosis of malnutrition (specifically under-nutrition) in patients with colorectal cancer, relative to reference tests (Subjective Global Assessment or Patient Generated Subjective Global Assessment). Types of studies: Diagnostic test accuracy studies regardless of study design. Studies published in English, German, Danish, Swedish and Norwegian were considered for inclusion in this review. Databases were searched from their inception to April 2014. Methodological quality was determined using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies checklist. Data was collected using the data extraction form: the Standards for Reporting Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy checklist for the reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy. The accuracy of diagnostic tests is presented in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values. In addition, the positive likelihood ratio (sensitivity/ [1 - specificity]) and negative likelihood ratio (1 - sensitivity)/ specificity), were also calculated and presented in this review to provide information about the likelihood that a given test result would be expected when the target condition is present compared with the likelihood that the same result would be expected when the condition is absent. Not all trials reported true positive, true negative, false positive and false negative rates, therefore these rates were calculated based on the data in the published papers. A two-by-two truth table was reconstructed for each study, and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for each study. A summary receiver operator characteristics curve was constructed to determine the relationship between sensitivity and specificity, and the area under the summary receiver operator characteristics curve which measured the usefulness of a test was calculated. Meta-analysis was not considered appropriate, therefore data was synthesized in a narrative summary. 1. One study evaluated the Malnutrition Screening Tool against the reference standard Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment. The sensitivity was 56% and the specificity 84%. The positive likelihood ratio was 3.100, negative likelihood ratio was 0.59, the diagnostic odds ratio (CI 95%) was 5.20 (1.09-24.90) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) represents only a poor to fair diagnostic test accuracy. A total of two studies evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) (index test) compared to both Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) (reference standard) and PG-SGA (reference standard) in patients with colorectal cancer. In MUST vs SGA the sensitivity of the tool was 96%, specificity was 75%, LR+ 3.826, LR- 0.058, diagnostic OR (CI 95%) 66.00 (6.61-659.24) and AUC represented excellent diagnostic accuracy. In MUST vs PG-SGA the sensitivity of the tool was 72%, specificity 48.9%, LR+ 1.382, LR- 0.579, diagnostic OR (CI 95%) 2.39 (0.87-6.58) and AUC indicated that the tool failed as a diagnostic test to identify patients with colorectal cancer at nutritional risk,. The Nutrition Risk Index (NRI) was compared to SGA representing a sensitivity of 95.2%, specificity of 62.5%, LR+ 2.521, LR- 0.087, diagnostic OR (CI 95%) 28.89 (6.93-120.40) and AUC represented good diagnostic accuracy. In regard to NRI vs PG-SGA the sensitivity of the tool was 68%, specificity 64%, LR+ 1.947, LR- 0.487, diagnostic OR (CI 95%) 4.00 (1.23-13.01) and AUC indicated poor diagnostic test accuracy. There are no single, specific tools used to screen or assess the nutritional status of colorectal cancer patients. All tools showed varied diagnostic accuracies when compared to the reference standards SGA and PG-SGA. Hence clinical judgment combined with perhaps the SGA or PG-SGA should play a major role. The PG-SGA offers several advantages over the SGA tool: 1) the patient completes the medical history component, thereby decreasing the amount of time involved; 2) it contains more nutrition impact symptoms, which are important to the patient with cancer; and 3) it has a scoring system that allows patients to be triaged for nutritional intervention. Therefore, the PG-SGA could be used as a nutrition assessment tool as it allows quick identification and prioritization of colorectal cancer patients with malnutrition in combination with other parameters. This systematic review highlights the need for the following: Further studies needs to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of already existing nutritional screening tools in the context of colorectal cancer patients. If new screenings tools are developed, they should be developed and validated in the specific clinical context within the same patient population (colorectal cancer patients). The Joanna Briggs Institute.

Prognostic value of mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) in patients with community-acquired pneumonia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Xie, Lixin; Zhao, Haiyan; Liu, Xueyao; Cao, Jie

2016-05-26

The early identification of patients at risk of dying from community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is critical for their treatment and for defining hospital resource consumption. Mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) has been extensively investigated for its prognostic value in CAP. However, the results are conflicting. The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to explore the diagnostic accuracy of MR-proADM for predicting mortality in patients suffering from CAP, particularly emergency department (ED) patients. We systematically searched the PubMed, Embase, Web of Knowledge and Cochrane databases. Studies were included if a 2 × 2 contingency table could be constructed based on both the MR-proADM level and the complications or mortality of patients diagnosed with CAP. The prognostic accuracy of MR-proADM in CAP was assessed using the bivariate meta-analysis model. We used the Q-test and I (2) index to evaluate heterogeneity. MR-proADM displayed moderate diagnostic accuracy for predicting complications in CAP, with an overall area under the SROC curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.70-0.78). Eight studies with a total of 4119 patients in the emergency department (ED) were included. An elevated MR-proADM level was associated with increased risk of death from CAP (RR 6.16, 95 % CI 4.71-8.06); the I (2) value was 0.0 %, and a fixed-effects model was used to pool RR. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.67-0.79) and 0.73 (95 % CI: 0.70-0.77), respectively. The positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) were 2.8 (95 % CI, 2.3-3.3) and 0.36 (95 % CI, 0.29-0.45), respectively. In addition, the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) was 8 (95 % CI, 5-11), and the overall area under the SROC curve was 0.76 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.80). Our study has demonstrated that MR-proADM is predictive of increased complications and higher mortality rates in patients suffering from CAP. Future studies are warranted to determine the prognostic accuracy of MR-proADM in conjunction with severity scores or other biomarkers and to determine an optimal cut-off level.

Revisiting the cost-effectiveness of universal cervical length screening: importance of progesterone efficacy.

PubMed

Jain, Siddharth; Kilgore, Meredith; Edwards, Rodney K; Owen, John

2016-07-01

Preterm birth (PTB) is a significant cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Studies have shown that vaginal progesterone therapy for women diagnosed with shortened cervical length can reduce the risk of PTB. However, published cost-effectiveness analyses of vaginal progesterone for short cervix have not considered an appropriate range of clinically important parameters. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal cervical length screening in women without a history of spontaneous PTB, assuming that all women with shortened cervical length receive progesterone to reduce the likelihood of PTB. A decision analysis model was developed to compare universal screening and no-screening strategies. The primary outcome was the cost-effectiveness ratio of both the strategies, defined as the estimated patient cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) realized by the children. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed by varying progesterone efficacy to prevent PTB. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to address uncertainties in model parameter estimates. In our base-case analysis, assuming that progesterone reduces the likelihood of PTB by 11%, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for screening was $158,000/QALY. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are highly sensitive to the presumed efficacy of progesterone to prevent PTB. In a 1-way sensitivity analysis, screening results in cost-saving if progesterone can reduce PTB by 36%. Additionally, for screening to be cost-effective at WTP=$60,000 in three clinical scenarios, progesterone therapy has to reduce PTB by 60%, 34% and 93%. Screening is never cost-saving in the worst-case scenario or when serial ultrasounds are employed, but could be cost-saving with a two-day hospitalization only if progesterone were 64% effective. Cervical length screening and treatment with progesterone is a not a dominant, cost-effective strategy unless progesterone is more effective than has been suggested by available data for US women. Until future trials demonstrate greater progesterone efficacy, and effectiveness studies confirm a benefit from screening and treatment, the cost-effectiveness of universal cervical length screening in the United States remains questionable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multibaseline gravitational wave radiometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Talukder, Dipongkar; Bose, Sukanta; Mitra, Sanjit

2011-03-15

We present a statistic for the detection of stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds (SGWBs) using radiometry with a network of multiple baselines. We also quantitatively compare the sensitivities of existing baselines and their network to SGWBs. We assess how the measurement accuracy of signal parameters, e.g., the sky position of a localized source, can improve when using a network of baselines, as compared to any of the single participating baselines. The search statistic itself is derived from the likelihood ratio of the cross correlation of the data across all possible baselines in a detector network and is optimal in Gaussian noise.more » Specifically, it is the likelihood ratio maximized over the strength of the SGWB and is called the maximized-likelihood ratio (MLR). One of the main advantages of using the MLR over past search strategies for inferring the presence or absence of a signal is that the former does not require the deconvolution of the cross correlation statistic. Therefore, it does not suffer from errors inherent to the deconvolution procedure and is especially useful for detecting weak sources. In the limit of a single baseline, it reduces to the detection statistic studied by Ballmer [Classical Quantum Gravity 23, S179 (2006).] and Mitra et al.[Phys. Rev. D 77, 042002 (2008).]. Unlike past studies, here the MLR statistic enables us to compare quantitatively the performances of a variety of baselines searching for a SGWB signal in (simulated) data. Although we use simulated noise and SGWB signals for making these comparisons, our method can be straightforwardly applied on real data.« less

Accuracy of clinical diagnosis versus the World Health Organization case definition in the Amoy Garden SARS cohort.

PubMed

Wong, W N; Sek, Antonio C H; Lau, Rick F L; Li, K M; Leung, Joe K S; Tse, M L; Ng, Andy H W; Stenstrom, Robert

2003-11-01

To compare the diagnostic accuracy of emergency department (ED) physicians with the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition in a large community-based SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) cohort. This was a cohort study of all patients from Hong Kong's Amoy Garden complex who presented to an ED SARS screening clinic during a 2-month outbreak. Clinical findings and WHO case definition criteria were recorded, along with ED diagnoses. Final diagnoses were established independently based on relevant diagnostic tests performed after the ED visit. Emergency physician diagnostic accuracy was compared with that of the WHO SARS case definition. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios were calculated using standard formulae. During the study period, 818 patients presented with SARS-like symptoms, including 205 confirmed SARS, 35 undetermined SARS and 578 non-SARS. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 91%, 96% and 94% for ED clinical diagnosis, versus 42%, 86% and 75% for the WHO case definition. Positive likelihood ratios (LR+) were 21.1 for physician judgement and 3.1 for the WHO criteria. Negative likelihood ratios (LR-) were 0.10 for physician judgement and 0.67 for the WHO criteria, indicating that clinician judgement was a much more powerful predictor than the WHO criteria. Physician clinical judgement was more accurate than the WHO case definition. Reliance on the WHO case definition as a SARS screening tool may lead to an unacceptable rate of misdiagnosis. The SARS case definition must be revised if it is to be used as a screening tool in emergency departments and primary care settings.

Prevalence of Visual Impairment among 4- to 6-years-old Children in Khon Kaen City Municipality, Thailand.

PubMed

Wongwai, Phanthipha; Anupongongarch, Pacharapan; Suwannaraj, Sirinya; Asawaphureekorn, Somkiat

2016-08-01

To evaluate the prevalence of visual impairment of children aged four to six years in Khon Kaen City Municipality, Thailand. The visual acuity test was performed on 1,286 children in kindergarten schools located in Khon Kaen Municipality. The first test of visual acuity was done by trained teachers and the second test by the pediatric ophthalmologist. The prevalence of visual impairment of both tests was recorded including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, and predictive value of the test by teachers. The causes of visual impairment were also recorded. There were 39 children with visual impairment from the test by the teacher and 12 children from the test by the ophthalmologist. Myopia is the single cause of visual impairment. Mean spherical equivalence is 1.375 diopters (SD = 0.53). Median spherical equivalence is 1.375 diopters (minimum = 0.5, maximum =4). The detection of visual impairment by trained teachers had a sensitivity of 1.00 (95% CI 0.76-1.00), specificity of 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-0.99), likelihood ratio for a positive test 44.58 (95% CI 30.32-65.54), likelihood ratio for a negative test 0.04 (95% CI 0.003-0.60), positive predictive value of 0.31 (95% CI 0.19-0.47), and negative predictive value of 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.00). The prevalence of visual impairment among children aged four to six year old is 0.9%. Trained teachers can be examiners for screening purpose.

Likelihood ratio data to report the validation of a forensic fingerprint evaluation method.

PubMed

Ramos, Daniel; Haraksim, Rudolf; Meuwly, Didier

2017-02-01

Data to which the authors refer to throughout this article are likelihood ratios (LR) computed from the comparison of 5-12 minutiae fingermarks with fingerprints. These LRs data are used for the validation of a likelihood ratio (LR) method in forensic evidence evaluation. These data present a necessary asset for conducting validation experiments when validating LR methods used in forensic evidence evaluation and set up validation reports. These data can be also used as a baseline for comparing the fingermark evidence in the same minutiae configuration as presented in (D. Meuwly, D. Ramos, R. Haraksim,) [1], although the reader should keep in mind that different feature extraction algorithms and different AFIS systems used may produce different LRs values. Moreover, these data may serve as a reproducibility exercise, in order to train the generation of validation reports of forensic methods, according to [1]. Alongside the data, a justification and motivation for the use of methods is given. These methods calculate LRs from the fingerprint/mark data and are subject to a validation procedure. The choice of using real forensic fingerprint in the validation and simulated data in the development is described and justified. Validation criteria are set for the purpose of validation of the LR methods, which are used to calculate the LR values from the data and the validation report. For privacy and data protection reasons, the original fingerprint/mark images cannot be shared. But these images do not constitute the core data for the validation, contrarily to the LRs that are shared.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

PubMed

Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

2011-06-01

For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

Pre-Intensive Care Unit Cognitive Status, Subsequent Disability, and New Nursing Home Admission among Critically Ill Older Adults.

PubMed

Ferrante, Lauren E; Murphy, Terrence E; Gahbauer, Evelyne A; Leo-Summers, Linda S; Pisani, Margaret A; Gill, Thomas M

2018-05-01

Cognitive impairment is common among older adults, yet little is known about the association of pre-intensive care unit cognitive status with outcomes relevant to older adults maintaining independence after a critical illness. To evaluate whether pre-intensive care unit cognitive status is associated with post-intensive care unit disability, new nursing home admission, and mortality after a critical illness among older adults. In this prospective cohort study, 754 persons aged 70 years or more were monitored from March 1998 to December 2013 with monthly assessments of disability. Cognitive status was assessed every 18 months, using the Mini-Mental State Examination (range, 0-30), with scores classified as 28 or higher (cognitively intact), 24-27 (minimal impairment), and less than 24 (moderate impairment). The primary outcome was disability count (range, 0-13), assessed monthly over 6 months after an intensive care unit stay. The secondary outcomes were incident nursing home admission and time to death after intensive care unit admission. The analytic sample included 391 intensive care unit admissions. The mean age was 83.5 years. The prevalence of moderate impairment, minimal impairment, and intact cognition (the comparison group) was 17.3, 46.2, and 36.5%, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, moderate impairment was associated with nearly a 20% increase in disability over the 6-month follow-up period (adjusted relative risk, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.36), and minimal impairment was associated with a 16% increase in post-intensive care unit disability (adjusted relative risk, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.32). Moderate impairment was associated with more than double the likelihood of a new nursing home admission (adjusted odds ratio, 2.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-5.55). Survival differed significantly across the three cognitive groups (log-rank P = 0.002), but neither moderate impairment (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-2.19) nor minimal impairment (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.62) was significantly associated with mortality in the multivariable analysis. Among older adults, any impairment (even minimal) in pre-intensive care unit cognitive status was associated with an increase in post-intensive care unit disability over the 6 months after a critical illness; moderate cognitive impairment doubled the likelihood of a new nursing home admission. Pre-intensive care unit cognitive impairment was not associated with mortality from intensive care unit admission through 6 months of follow-up. Pre-intensive care unit cognitive status may provide prognostic information about the likelihood of older adults maintaining independence after a critical illness.

A comparison of cosegregation analysis methods for the clinical setting.

PubMed

Rañola, John Michael O; Liu, Quanhui; Rosenthal, Elisabeth A; Shirts, Brian H

2018-04-01

Quantitative cosegregation analysis can help evaluate the pathogenicity of genetic variants. However, genetics professionals without statistical training often use simple methods, reporting only qualitative findings. We evaluate the potential utility of quantitative cosegregation in the clinical setting by comparing three methods. One thousand pedigrees each were simulated for benign and pathogenic variants in BRCA1 and MLH1 using United States historical demographic data to produce pedigrees similar to those seen in the clinic. These pedigrees were analyzed using two robust methods, full likelihood Bayes factors (FLB) and cosegregation likelihood ratios (CSLR), and a simpler method, counting meioses. Both FLB and CSLR outperform counting meioses when dealing with pathogenic variants, though counting meioses is not far behind. For benign variants, FLB and CSLR greatly outperform as counting meioses is unable to generate evidence for benign variants. Comparing FLB and CSLR, we find that the two methods perform similarly, indicating that quantitative results from either of these methods could be combined in multifactorial calculations. Combining quantitative information will be important as isolated use of cosegregation in single families will yield classification for less than 1% of variants. To encourage wider use of robust cosegregation analysis, we present a website ( http://www.analyze.myvariant.org ) which implements the CSLR, FLB, and Counting Meioses methods for ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, MEN1, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2. We also present an R package, CoSeg, which performs the CSLR analysis on any gene with user supplied parameters. Future variant classification guidelines should allow nuanced inclusion of cosegregation evidence against pathogenicity.

Return to military weight standards after pregnancy in active duty working women: comparison of marine corps vs. navy.

PubMed

Greer, Joy A; Zelig, Craig M; Choi, Kenny K; Rankins, Nicole Calloway; Chauhan, Suneet P; Magann, Everett F

2012-08-01

To compare the likelihood of being within weight standards before and after pregnancy between United States Marine Corps (USMC) and Navy (USN) active duty women (ADW). ADW with singleton gestations who delivered at a USMC base were followed for 6 months to determine likelihood of returning to military weight standards. Odds ratio (OR), adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated; p < 0.05 was considered significant. Similar proportions of USN and USMC ADW were within body weight standards one year prior to pregnancy (79%, 97%) and at first prenatal visit (69%, 96%), respectively. However, USMC ADW were significantly more likely to be within body weight standards at 3 months (AOR 4.30,1.28-14.43) and 6 months after delivery (AOR 9.94, 1.53-64.52) than USN ADW. Weight gained during pregnancy did not differ significantly for the two groups (40.4 lbs vs 44.2 lbs, p = 0.163). The likelihood of spontaneous vaginal delivery was significantly higher (OR 2.52, 1.20-5.27) and the mean birth weight was significantly lower (p = 0.0036) among USMC ADW as compared to USN ADW. Being within weight standards differs significantly for USMC and USN ADW after pregnancy.

Female breast symptoms in patients attended in the family medicine practice.

PubMed

González-Pérez, Brian; Salas-Flores, Ricardo; Sosa-López, María Lucero; Barrientos-Guerrero, Carlos Eduardo; Hernández-Aguilar, Claudia Magdalena; Gómez-Contreras, Diana Edith; Sánchez-Garza, Jorge Arturo

2013-01-01

there are few studies on breast symptoms (BS) in patients attended at primary care units in Mexico. The aim was to determine the frequency and types of BS overall and by age-group and establish which BS were related to diagnosis of breast cancer. data from all female patients with a breast-disease-related diagnosis, attended from 2006 to 2010, at the Family Medicine Unit 38, were collected. The frequencies of BS were determined by four age-groups (< 19, 20-49, 50-69, > 70 years) and likelihood ratios for breast cancer for each breast-related symptom patient, with a 95 % confidence interval (CI). the most frequent BS in the study population were lump/mass (71.7 %) and breast pain (67.7 %) of all breast complaints, and they were more noted in women age group of 20-49 years. Overall, 120 women had breast cancer diagnosed with a median age of 53.51 + 12.7 years. Breast lump/mass had positive likelihood ratios for breast cancer 4.53 (95 % CI = 2.51-8.17) and breast pain had increased negative LR = 1.08 (95 % CI = 1.05-1.11). breast lump/mass was the predominant presenting complaint among females with breast symptoms in our primary care unit, and it was associated with elevated positive likelihood of breast cancer.

Knowledge and risk perception of late effects among childhood cancer survivors and parents before and after visiting a childhood cancer survivor clinic.

PubMed

Cherven, Brooke; Mertens, Ann; Meacham, Lillian R; Williamson, Rebecca; Boring, Cathy; Wasilewski-Masker, Karen

2014-01-01

Survivors of childhood cancer are at risk for a variety of treatment-related late effects and require lifelong individualized surveillance for early detection of late effects. This study assessed knowledge and perceptions of late effects risk before and after a survivor clinic visit. Young adult survivors (≥ 16 years) and parents of child survivors (< 16 years) were recruited prior to initial visit to a cancer survivor program. Sixty-five participants completed a baseline survey and 50 completed both a baseline and follow-up survey. Participants were found to have a low perceived likelihood of developing a late effect of cancer therapy and many incorrect perceptions of risk for individual late effects. Low knowledge before clinic (odds ratio = 9.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-92.8; P = .02) and low perceived likelihood of developing a late effect (odds ratio = 18.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.7-242.3; P = .01) were found to predict low knowledge of late effect risk at follow-up. This suggests that perceived likelihood of developing a late effect is an important factor in the individuals' ability to learn about their risk and should be addressed before initiation of education. © 2014 by Association of Pediatric Hematology/Oncology Nurses.

Robust Multipoint Water-Fat Separation Using Fat Likelihood Analysis

PubMed Central

Yu, Huanzhou; Reeder, Scott B.; Shimakawa, Ann; McKenzie, Charles A.; Brittain, Jean H.

2016-01-01

Fat suppression is an essential part of routine MRI scanning. Multiecho chemical-shift based water-fat separation methods estimate and correct for Bo field inhomogeneity. However, they must contend with the intrinsic challenge of water-fat ambiguity that can result in water-fat swapping. This problem arises because the signals from two chemical species, when both are modeled as a single discrete spectral peak, may appear indistinguishable in the presence of Bo off-resonance. In conventional methods, the water-fat ambiguity is typically removed by enforcing field map smoothness using region growing based algorithms. In reality, the fat spectrum has multiple spectral peaks. Using this spectral complexity, we introduce a novel concept that identifies water and fat for multiecho acquisitions by exploiting the spectral differences between water and fat. A fat likelihood map is produced to indicate if a pixel is likely to be water-dominant or fat-dominant by comparing the fitting residuals of two different signal models. The fat likelihood analysis and field map smoothness provide complementary information, and we designed an algorithm (Fat Likelihood Analysis for Multiecho Signals) to exploit both mechanisms. It is demonstrated in a wide variety of data that the Fat Likelihood Analysis for Multiecho Signals algorithm offers highly robust water-fat separation for 6-echo acquisitions, particularly in some previously challenging applications. PMID:21842498

Staff gender ratio and aggression in a forensic psychiatric hospital.

PubMed

Daffern, Michael; Mayer, Maggie; Martin, Trish

2006-06-01

Gender balance in acute psychiatric inpatient units remains a contentious issue. In terms of maintaining staff and patient safety, 'balance' is often considered by ensuring there are 'sufficient' male nurses present on each shift. In an ongoing programme of research into aggression, the authors investigated reported incidents of patient aggression and examined the gender ratio on each shift over a 6-month period. Contrary to the popular notion that a particular gender ratio might have some relationship with the likelihood of aggressive incidents, there was no statistically significant difference in the proportion of male staff working on the shifts when there was an aggressive incident compared with the shifts when there was no aggressive incident. Further, when an incident did occur, the severity of the incident bore no relationship with the proportion of male staff working on the shift. Nor did the gender of the shift leader have an impact on the decision to seclude the patient or the likelihood of completing an incident form following an aggressive incident. Staff confidence in managing aggression may be influenced by the presence of male staff. Further, aspects of prevention and management may be influenced by staff gender. However, results suggest there is no evidence that the frequency or severity of aggression is influenced by staff gender ratio.

An original approach was used to better evaluate the capacity of a prognostic marker using published survival curves.

PubMed

Dantan, Etienne; Combescure, Christophe; Lorent, Marine; Ashton-Chess, Joanna; Daguin, Pascal; Classe, Jean-Marc; Giral, Magali; Foucher, Yohann

2014-04-01

Predicting chronic disease evolution from a prognostic marker is a key field of research in clinical epidemiology. However, the prognostic capacity of a marker is not systematically evaluated using the appropriate methodology. We proposed the use of simple equations to calculate time-dependent sensitivity and specificity based on published survival curves and other time-dependent indicators as predictive values, likelihood ratios, and posttest probability ratios to reappraise prognostic marker accuracy. The methodology is illustrated by back calculating time-dependent indicators from published articles presenting a marker as highly correlated with the time to event, concluding on the high prognostic capacity of the marker, and presenting the Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The tools necessary to run these direct and simple computations are available online at http://www.divat.fr/en/online-calculators/evalbiom. Our examples illustrate that published conclusions about prognostic marker accuracy may be overoptimistic, thus giving potential for major mistakes in therapeutic decisions. Our approach should help readers better evaluate clinical articles reporting on prognostic markers. Time-dependent sensitivity and specificity inform on the inherent prognostic capacity of a marker for a defined prognostic time. Time-dependent predictive values, likelihood ratios, and posttest probability ratios may additionally contribute to interpret the marker's prognostic capacity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Evidence-based cardiology: practical applications from epidemiology. III. Diagnostic capacity of a clinical test].

PubMed

Rodríguez-Escudero, Juan Pablo; López-Jiménez, Francisco; Trejo-Gutiérrez, Jorge F

2011-01-01

This article reviews different characteristics of validity in a clinical diagnostic test. In particular, we emphasize the likelihood ratio as an instrument that facilitates the use of epidemiologic concepts in clinical diagnosis.

A Study of Item Bias for Attitudinal Measurement Using Maximum Likelihood Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayberry, Paul W.

A technique for detecting item bias that is responsive to attitudinal measurement considerations is a maximum likelihood factor analysis procedure comparing multivariate factor structures across various subpopulations, often referred to as SIFASP. The SIFASP technique allows for factorial model comparisons in the testing of various hypotheses…

Health Care Disparity and Pregnancy-Related Mortality in the United States, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Moaddab, Amirhossein; Dildy, Gary A; Brown, Haywood L; Bateni, Zhoobin H; Belfort, Michael A; Sangi-Haghpeykar, Haleh; Clark, Steven L

2018-04-01

To quantitate the contribution of various demographic factors to the U.S. maternal mortality ratio. This was a retrospective observational study. We analyzed data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics database and the Detailed Mortality Underlying Cause of Death database (CDC WONDER) from 2005 to 2014 that contains mortality and population counts for all U.S. counties. Bivariate correlations between the maternal mortality ratio and all maternal demographic, lifestyle, health, and medical service utilization characteristics were calculated. We performed a maximum likelihood factor analysis with varimax rotation retaining variables that were significant (P<.05) in the univariate analysis to deal with multicollinearity among the existing variables. The United States has experienced an increase in maternal mortality ratio since 2005 with rates increasing from 15 per 100,00 live births in 2005 to 21-22 per 100,000 live births in 2013 and 2014. (P<.001) This increase in mortality was most pronounced in non-Hispanic black women, with ratios rising from 39 to 49 per 100,000 live births. A significant correlation between state mortality ranking and the percentage of non-Hispanic black women in the delivery population was demonstrated. Cesarean deliveries, unintended births, unmarried status, percentage of deliveries to non-Hispanic black women, and four or fewer prenatal visits were significantly (P<.05) associated with the increased maternal mortality ratio. The current U.S. maternal mortality ratio is heavily influenced by a higher rate of death among non-Hispanic black or unmarried patients with unplanned pregnancies. Racial disparities in health care availability and access or utilization by underserved populations are important issues faced by states seeking to decrease maternal mortality.

A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zechar, J. Douglas; Zhuang, Jiancang

2014-10-01

Using analogies to gaming, we consider the problem of comparing multiple probabilistic seismicity forecasts. To measure relative model performance, we suggest a parimutuel gambling perspective which addresses shortcomings of other methods such as likelihood ratio, information gain and Molchan diagrams. We describe two variants of the parimutuel approach for a set of forecasts: head-to-head, in which forecasts are compared in pairs, and round table, in which all forecasts are compared simultaneously. For illustration, we compare the 5-yr forecasts of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment for M4.95+ seismicity in California.

ModelTest Server: a web-based tool for the statistical selection of models of nucleotide substitution online

PubMed Central

Posada, David

2006-01-01

ModelTest server is a web-based application for the selection of models of nucleotide substitution using the program ModelTest. The server takes as input a text file with likelihood scores for the set of candidate models. Models can be selected with hierarchical likelihood ratio tests, or with the Akaike or Bayesian information criteria. The output includes several statistics for the assessment of model selection uncertainty, for model averaging or to estimate the relative importance of model parameters. The server can be accessed at . PMID:16845102

Massive optimal data compression and density estimation for scalable, likelihood-free inference in cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsing, Justin; Wandelt, Benjamin; Feeney, Stephen

2018-07-01

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from any likelihood assumptions or approximations. Likelihood-free inference generically involves simulating mock data and comparing to the observed data; this comparison in data space suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires compression of the data to a small number of summary statistics to be tractable. In this paper, we use massive asymptotically optimal data compression to reduce the dimensionality of the data space to just one number per parameter, providing a natural and optimal framework for summary statistic choice for likelihood-free inference. Secondly, we present the first cosmological application of Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference (DELFI), which learns a parametrized model for joint distribution of data and parameters, yielding both the parameter posterior and the model evidence. This approach is conceptually simple, requires less tuning than traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approaches to likelihood-free inference and can give high-fidelity posteriors from orders of magnitude fewer forward simulations. As an additional bonus, it enables parameter inference and Bayesian model comparison simultaneously. We demonstrate DELFI with massive data compression on an analysis of the joint light-curve analysis supernova data, as a simple validation case study. We show that high-fidelity posterior inference is possible for full-scale cosmological data analyses with as few as ˜104 simulations, with substantial scope for further improvement, demonstrating the scalability of likelihood-free inference to large and complex cosmological data sets.

Effect of radiance-to-reflectance transformation and atmosphere removal on maximum likelihood classification accuracy of high-dimensional remote sensing data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffbeck, Joseph P.; Landgrebe, David A.

1994-01-01

Many analysis algorithms for high-dimensional remote sensing data require that the remotely sensed radiance spectra be transformed to approximate reflectance to allow comparison with a library of laboratory reflectance spectra. In maximum likelihood classification, however, the remotely sensed spectra are compared to training samples, thus a transformation to reflectance may or may not be helpful. The effect of several radiance-to-reflectance transformations on maximum likelihood classification accuracy is investigated in this paper. We show that the empirical line approach, LOWTRAN7, flat-field correction, single spectrum method, and internal average reflectance are all non-singular affine transformations, and that non-singular affine transformations have no effect on discriminant analysis feature extraction and maximum likelihood classification accuracy. (An affine transformation is a linear transformation with an optional offset.) Since the Atmosphere Removal Program (ATREM) and the log residue method are not affine transformations, experiments with Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were conducted to determine the effect of these transformations on maximum likelihood classification accuracy. The average classification accuracy of the data transformed by ATREM and the log residue method was slightly less than the accuracy of the original radiance data. Since the radiance-to-reflectance transformations allow direct comparison of remotely sensed spectra with laboratory reflectance spectra, they can be quite useful in labeling the training samples required by maximum likelihood classification, but these transformations have only a slight effect or no effect at all on discriminant analysis and maximum likelihood classification accuracy.

Urinary bladder segmentation in CT urography using deep-learning convolutional neural network and level sets

PubMed Central

Cha, Kenny H.; Hadjiiski, Lubomir; Samala, Ravi K.; Chan, Heang-Ping; Caoili, Elaine M.; Cohan, Richard H.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The authors are developing a computerized system for bladder segmentation in CT urography (CTU) as a critical component for computer-aided detection of bladder cancer. Methods: A deep-learning convolutional neural network (DL-CNN) was trained to distinguish between the inside and the outside of the bladder using 160 000 regions of interest (ROI) from CTU images. The trained DL-CNN was used to estimate the likelihood of an ROI being inside the bladder for ROIs centered at each voxel in a CTU case, resulting in a likelihood map. Thresholding and hole-filling were applied to the map to generate the initial contour for the bladder, which was then refined by 3D and 2D level sets. The segmentation performance was evaluated using 173 cases: 81 cases in the training set (42 lesions, 21 wall thickenings, and 18 normal bladders) and 92 cases in the test set (43 lesions, 36 wall thickenings, and 13 normal bladders). The computerized segmentation accuracy using the DL likelihood map was compared to that using a likelihood map generated by Haar features and a random forest classifier, and that using our previous conjoint level set analysis and segmentation system (CLASS) without using a likelihood map. All methods were evaluated relative to the 3D hand-segmented reference contours. Results: With DL-CNN-based likelihood map and level sets, the average volume intersection ratio, average percent volume error, average absolute volume error, average minimum distance, and the Jaccard index for the test set were 81.9% ± 12.1%, 10.2% ± 16.2%, 14.0% ± 13.0%, 3.6 ± 2.0 mm, and 76.2% ± 11.8%, respectively. With the Haar-feature-based likelihood map and level sets, the corresponding values were 74.3% ± 12.7%, 13.0% ± 22.3%, 20.5% ± 15.7%, 5.7 ± 2.6 mm, and 66.7% ± 12.6%, respectively. With our previous CLASS with local contour refinement (LCR) method, the corresponding values were 78.0% ± 14.7%, 16.5% ± 16.8%, 18.2% ± 15.0%, 3.8 ± 2.3 mm, and 73.9% ± 13.5%, respectively. Conclusions: The authors demonstrated that the DL-CNN can overcome the strong boundary between two regions that have large difference in gray levels and provides a seamless mask to guide level set segmentation, which has been a problem for many gradient-based segmentation methods. Compared to our previous CLASS with LCR method, which required two user inputs to initialize the segmentation, DL-CNN with level sets achieved better segmentation performance while using a single user input. Compared to the Haar-feature-based likelihood map, the DL-CNN-based likelihood map could guide the level sets to achieve better segmentation. The results demonstrate the feasibility of our new approach of using DL-CNN in combination with level sets for segmentation of the bladder. PMID:27036584

XENON100 exclusion limit without considering Leff as a nuisance parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Jonathan H.; Bœhm, Céline; Oppermann, Niels; Ensslin, Torsten; Lacroix, Thomas

2012-07-01

In 2011, the XENON100 experiment has set unprecedented constraints on dark matter-nucleon interactions, excluding dark matter candidates with masses down to 6 GeV if the corresponding cross section is larger than 10-39cm2. The dependence of the exclusion limit in terms of the scintillation efficiency (Leff) has been debated at length. To overcome possible criticisms XENON100 performed an analysis in which Leff was considered as a nuisance parameter and its uncertainties were profiled out by using a Gaussian likelihood in which the mean value corresponds to the best fit Leff value (smoothly extrapolated to 0 below 3 keVnr). Although such a method seems fairly robust, it does not account for more extreme types of extrapolation nor does it enable us to anticipate how much the exclusion limit would vary if new data were to support a flat behavior for Leff below 3 keVnr, for example. Yet, such a question is crucial for light dark matter models which are close to the published XENON100 limit. To answer this issue, we use a maximum likelihood ratio analysis, as done by the XENON100 Collaboration, but do not consider Leff as a nuisance parameter. Instead, Leff is obtained directly from the fits to the data. This enables us to define frequentist confidence intervals by marginalizing over Leff.

High femoral artery bifurcation predicts contralateral high bifurcation: implications for complex percutaneous cardiovascular procedures requiring large caliber and/or dual access.

PubMed

Gupta, Vipul; Feng, Kent; Cheruvu, Pavan; Boyer, Nathan; Yeghiazarians, Yerem; Ports, Thomas A; Zimmet, Jeffrey; Shunk, Kendrick; Boyle, Andrew J

2014-09-01

Recent advances in technology have led to an increase in the use of bilateral femoral artery access and the requirement for large-bore access. Optimal access is in the common femoral artery (CFA), rather than higher (in the external iliac artery) or lower (in one of the branches of the CFA). However, there is a paucity of data in the literature about the relationship between bifurcation level of one CFA and the contralateral CFA. To define the prevalence of high bifurcation of the CFA and the relationship between bifurcation level on both sides, we performed a retrospective analysis of all patients with bilateral femoral angiography. From 4880 femoral angiograms performed at UCSF cardiac catheterization laboratory between 2005-2013, a total of 273 patients had bilateral femoral angiograms. The prevalence of low/normal, high, and very-high femoral bifurcations was 70%, 26%, and 4%, respectively, with no difference between sides. A high or very-high bifurcation significantly increased the likelihood of a high bifurcation on the contralateral side (odds ratio >3.0). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed age, gender, self-reported race, height, weight, and body mass index were not predictive of high or very-high bifurcations on either side. In conclusion, high femoral artery bifurcations are common and increase the likelihood of a high bifurcation of the contralateral femoral artery.

Admixture analysis of the diagnostic subtypes of social anxiety disorder: implications for the DSM-V.

PubMed

Aderka, Idan M; Nickerson, Angela; Hofmann, Stefan G

2012-06-01

Much controversy exists regarding diagnostic subtypes of social anxiety disorder (SAD). The present study used admixture analysis to examine whether individuals with generalized and nongeneralized SAD belong to the same or different populations of origin. This can inform diagnostic subtyping of SAD in the forthcoming DSM-V. Treatment-seeking individuals with generalized SAD (n = 154) and nongeneralized SAD (n = 48) completed a battery of questionnaires. Based on participants' responses to the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (LSAS), we estimated log likelihood and chi-square goodness-of-fit for models with 1, 2, 3, or 4 populations of origin, and compared models using forward stepwise estimation and maximum likelihood ratio tests. Admixture analyses suggested that the two diagnostic subtypes of SAD belong to the same underlying population of origin. In addition, observable differences in depression, general anxiety, and comorbidity were no longer significant when controlling for social anxiety severity. Our sample was recruited in the U.S. and was a treatment-seeking sample. Future studies should examine whether our results generalize to different cultures, and community samples. Support for qualitative differences between SAD subtypes was not found. Rather, our findings support the notion that the diagnostic subtypes of SAD differ quantitatively, and that SAD exists on a continuum of severity. This finding informs diagnostic subtyping of SAD in the forthcoming DSM-V. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crash test rating and likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injury in motor vehicle crashes: the new car assessment program side-impact crash test, 1998-2010.

PubMed

Figler, Bradley D; Mack, Christopher D; Kaufman, Robert; Wessells, Hunter; Bulger, Eileen; Smith, Thomas G; Voelzke, Bryan

2014-03-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) implemented side-impact crash testing on all new vehicles since 1998 to assess the likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injuries during a side-impact crash. Higher crash test rating is intended to indicate a safer car, but the real-world applicability of these ratings is unknown. Our objective was to determine the relationship between a vehicle's NCAP side-impact crash test rating and the risk of major thoracoabdominal injury among the vehicle's occupants in real-world side-impact motor vehicle crashes. The National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System contains detailed crash and injury data in a sample of major crashes in the United States. For model years 1998 to 2010 and crash years 1999 to 2010, 68,124 occupants were identified in the Crashworthiness Data System database. Because 47% of cases were missing crash severity (ΔV), multiple imputation was used to estimate the missing values. The primary predictor of interest was the occupant vehicle's NCAP side-impact crash test rating, and the outcome of interest was the presence of major (Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] score ≥ 3) thoracoabdominal injury. In multivariate analysis, increasing NCAP crash test rating was associated with lower likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injury at high (odds ratio [OR], 0.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-0.9; p < 0.01) and medium (OR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.8-1.0; p < 0.05) crash severity (ΔV), but not at low ΔV (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.8-1.2; p = 0.55). In our model, older age and absence of seat belt use were associated with greater likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injury at low and medium ΔV (p < 0.001), but not at high ΔV (p ≥ 0.09). Among adults in model year 1998 to 2010 vehicles involved in medium and high severity motor vehicle crashes, a higher NCAP side-impact crash test rating is associated with a lower likelihood of major thoracoabdominal trauma. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Limits on Spin-Dependent WIMP-Nucleon Cross Section Obtained from the Complete LUX Exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akerib, D. S.; Alsum, S.; Araújo, H. M.; Bai, X.; Bailey, A. J.; Balajthy, J.; Beltrame, P.; Bernard, E. P.; Bernstein, A.; Biesiadzinski, T. P.; Boulton, E. M.; Brás, P.; Byram, D.; Cahn, S. B.; Carmona-Benitez, M. C.; Chan, C.; Chiller, A. A.; Chiller, C.; Currie, A.; Cutter, J. E.; Davison, T. J. R.; Dobi, A.; Dobson, J. E. Y.; Druszkiewicz, E.; Edwards, B. N.; Faham, C. H.; Fallon, S. R.; Fiorucci, S.; Gaitskell, R. J.; Gehman, V. M.; Ghag, C.; Gilchriese, M. G. D.; Hall, C. R.; Hanhardt, M.; Haselschwardt, S. J.; Hertel, S. A.; Hogan, D. P.; Horn, M.; Huang, D. Q.; Ignarra, C. M.; Jacobsen, R. G.; Ji, W.; Kamdin, K.; Kazkaz, K.; Khaitan, D.; Knoche, R.; Larsen, N. A.; Lee, C.; Lenardo, B. G.; Lesko, K. T.; Lindote, A.; Lopes, M. I.; Manalaysay, A.; Mannino, R. L.; Marzioni, M. F.; McKinsey, D. N.; Mei, D.-M.; Mock, J.; Moongweluwan, M.; Morad, J. A.; Murphy, A. St. J.; Nehrkorn, C.; Nelson, H. N.; Neves, F.; O'Sullivan, K.; Oliver-Mallory, K. C.; Palladino, K. J.; Pease, E. K.; Reichhart, L.; Rhyne, C.; Shaw, S.; Shutt, T. A.; Silva, C.; Solmaz, M.; Solovov, V. N.; Sorensen, P.; Stephenson, S.; Sumner, T. J.; Szydagis, M.; Taylor, D. J.; Taylor, W. C.; Tennyson, B. P.; Terman, P. A.; Tiedt, D. R.; To, W. H.; Tripathi, M.; Tvrznikova, L.; Uvarov, S.; Velan, V.; Verbus, J. R.; Webb, R. C.; White, J. T.; Whitis, T. J.; Witherell, M. S.; Wolfs, F. L. H.; Xu, J.; Yazdani, K.; Young, S. K.; Zhang, C.; LUX Collaboration

2017-06-01

We present experimental constraints on the spin-dependent WIMP-nucleon elastic cross sections from the total 129.5 kg yr exposure acquired by the Large Underground Xenon experiment (LUX), operating at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota (USA). A profile likelihood ratio analysis allows 90% C.L. upper limits to be set on the WIMP-neutron (WIMP-proton) cross section of σn=1.6 ×10-41 cm2 (σp=5 ×10-40 cm2 ) at 35 GeV c-2 , almost a sixfold improvement over the previous LUX spin-dependent results. The spin-dependent WIMP-neutron limit is the most sensitive constraint to date.

Sentiment analysis of feature ranking methods for classification accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph, Shashank; Mugauri, Calvin; Sumathy, S.

2017-11-01

Text pre-processing and feature selection are important and critical steps in text mining. Text pre-processing of large volumes of datasets is a difficult task as unstructured raw data is converted into structured format. Traditional methods of processing and weighing took much time and were less accurate. To overcome this challenge, feature ranking techniques have been devised. A feature set from text preprocessing is fed as input for feature selection. Feature selection helps improve text classification accuracy. Of the three feature selection categories available, the filter category will be the focus. Five feature ranking methods namely: document frequency, standard deviation information gain, CHI-SQUARE, and weighted-log likelihood -ratio is analyzed.

Fight Bite Injuries: Aggressive Tendencies Associated with Smaller Second to Fourth Digit Ratio.

PubMed

Joyce, Cormac W; O' Regan, Andrew; Kelly, Jack L; O' Shaughnessy, Michael

2017-12-01

Fight bite injuries are typically sustained by young, combative males and are the direct consequence of an aggressive act. Second to fourth digit ratios (2D:4D) are dependent on prenatal androgen exposure and lower ratios have been shown to be linked to various psychological and physical traits, including aggression. The aim of this study was to examine the 2D:4D ratios in a cohort of patients with fight bite injuries and compare these to an age and gender-matched control group. The 2D:4D ratios were calculated using plain films of the hand from 133 patients (122 males, 11 females) with fight bite injuries. A further 133 radiographs were obtained from patients that did not have fight bite injuries and digit ratios were calculated in the same fashion. Statistical analysis was then carried out to compare the 2D:4D ratios between the different groups. The 2D:4D ratios for male fight bite patients was significantly smaller than the male control group (p < 0.05). No significant difference was observed between the female fight bite patients and the female control group (p > 0.05). Fight bite injuries are usually sustained as a result of aggression. 2D:4D ratios are reflect intrauterine androgen exposure and low ratios have been linked to aggressive tendencies. We have demonstrated that male patients who sustained fight bite injuries have a lower 2D:4D ratio then the general population, thereby suggesting that exposure to prenatal androgens can lead to aggressive tendencies in adulthood. This suggests that lower ratios may predict a predisposition to acts of aggression, and as such result in an increased likelihood of sustaining an injury such as a fight bite.

Production Functions for Water Delivery Systems: Analysis and Estimation Using Dual Cost Function and Implicit Price Specifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teeples, Ronald; Glyer, David

1987-05-01

Both policy and technical analysis of water delivery systems have been based on cost functions that are inconsistent with or are incomplete representations of the neoclassical production functions of economics. We present a full-featured production function model of water delivery which can be estimated from a multiproduct, dual cost function. The model features implicit prices for own-water inputs and is implemented as a jointly estimated system of input share equations and a translog cost function. Likelihood ratio tests are performed showing that a minimally constrained, full-featured production function is a necessary specification of the water delivery operations in our sample. This, plus the model's highly efficient and economically correct parameter estimates, confirms the usefulness of a production function approach to modeling the economic activities of water delivery systems.

Vascular Disease, ESRD, and Death: Interpreting Competing Risk Analyses

PubMed Central

Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989–1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20–2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors. PMID:22859747

Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

2012-10-01

Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Vocational Qualifications, Employment Status and Income: 2006 Census Analysis. Technical Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daly, Anne

2011-01-01

Two features of the labour market for vocationally qualified workers are explored in this technical paper: the likelihood of self-employment versus wage employment and the determinants of income. The analysis showed that demographic, occupational and local labour market characteristics all influence the likelihood of self-employment. Self-employed…

High-Dimensional Exploratory Item Factor Analysis by a Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cai, Li

2010-01-01

A Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro (MH-RM) algorithm for high-dimensional maximum marginal likelihood exploratory item factor analysis is proposed. The sequence of estimates from the MH-RM algorithm converges with probability one to the maximum likelihood solution. Details on the computer implementation of this algorithm are provided. The…

Self-assessed mental health problems and work capacity as determinants of return to work: a prospective general population-based study of individuals with all-cause sickness absence

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Mental health problems are common in the work force and influence work capacity and sickness absence. The aim was to examine self-assessed mental health problems and work capacity as determinants of time until return to work (RTW). Methods Employed women and men (n=6140), aged 19–64 years, registered as sick with all-cause sickness absence between February 18 and April 15, 2008 received a self-administered questionnaire covering health and work situation (response rate 54%). Demographic data was collected from official registers. This follow-up study included 2502 individuals. Of these, 1082 were currently off sick when answering the questionnaire. Register data on total number of benefit compensated sick-leave days in the end of 2008 were used to determine the time until RTW. Self-reported persistent mental illness, the WHO (Ten) Mental Well-Being Index and self-assessed work capacity in relation to knowledge, mental, collaborative and physical demands at work were used as determinants. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the likelihood of RTW. Results The likelihood of RTW (≥105 days) was higher among those with persistent mental illness OR= 2.97 (95% CI, 2.10-4.20) and those with low mental well-being OR= 2.89 (95% CI, 2.31-3.62) after adjusting for gender, age, SES, hours worked and sick leave 2007. An analysis of employees who were off sick when they answered the questionnaire, the likelihood of RTW (≥105 days) was higher among those who reported low capacity to work in relation to knowledge, mental, collaborative and physical demands at work. In a multivariable analysis, the likelihood of RTW (≥105 days) among those with low mental well-being remained significant OR=1.93 (95% CI 1.46-2.55) even after adjustment for all dimensions of capacity to work. Conclusion Self-assessed persistent mental illness, low mental well-being and low work capacity increased the likelihood of prolonged RTW. This study is unique because it is based on new sick-leave spells and is the first to show that low mental well-being was a strong determinant of RTW even after adjustment for work capacity. Our findings support the importance of identifying individuals with low mental well-being as a way to promote RTW. PMID:24124982

Validity of height loss as a predictor for prevalent vertebral fractures, low bone mineral density, and vitamin D deficiency.

PubMed

Mikula, A L; Hetzel, S J; Binkley, N; Anderson, P A

2017-05-01

Many osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures are unappreciated but their detection is important as their presence increases future fracture risk. We found height loss is a useful tool in detecting patients with vertebral fractures, low bone mineral density, and vitamin D deficiency which may lead to improvements in patient care. This study aimed to determine if/how height loss can be used to identify patients with vertebral fractures, low bone mineral density, and vitamin D deficiency. A hospital database search in which four patient groups including those with a diagnosis of osteoporosis-related vertebral fracture, osteoporosis, osteopenia, or vitamin D deficiency and a control group were evaluated for chart-documented height loss over an average 3 1/2 to 4-year time period. Data was retrieved from 66,021 patients (25,792 men and 40,229 women). A height loss of 1, 2, 3, and 4 cm had a sensitivity of 42, 32, 19, and 14% in detecting vertebral fractures, respectively. Positive likelihood ratios for detecting vertebral fractures were 1.73, 2.35, and 2.89 at 2, 3, and 4 cm of height loss, respectively. Height loss had lower sensitivities and positive likelihood ratios for detecting low bone mineral density and vitamin D deficiency compared to vertebral fractures. Specificity of 1, 2, 3, and 4 cm of height loss was 70, 82, 92, and 95%, respectively. The odds ratios for a patient who loses 1 cm of height being in one of the four diagnostic groups compared to a patient who loses no height was higher for younger and male patients. This study demonstrated that prospective height loss is an effective tool to identify patients with vertebral fractures, low bone mineral density, and vitamin D deficiency although a lack of height loss does not rule out these diagnoses. If significant height loss is present, the high positive likelihood ratios support a further workup.

The Influence of Tag Presence on the Mortality of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Exposed to Simulated Hydroturbine Passage: Implications for Survival Estimates and Management of Hydroelectric Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carlson, Thomas J.; Brown, Richard S.; Stephenson, John R.

Each year, millions of fish have telemetry tags (acoustic, radio, inductive) surgically implanted to assess their passage and survival through hydropower facilities. One route of passage of particular concern is through hydro turbines, in which fish may be exposed to a range of potential injuries, including barotraumas from rapid decompression. The change in pressure from acclimation to exposure (nadir) has been found to be an important factor in predicting the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon undergoing rapid decompression associated with simulated turbine passage. The presence of telemetry tags has also been shown to influence the likelihoodmore » of injury and mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon. This research investigated the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon carrying telemetry tags and exposed to a range of simulated turbine passage. Several factors were examined as predictors of mortal injury for fish undergoing rapid decompression, and the ratio of pressure change and tag burden were determined to be the most predictive factors. As the ratio of pressure change and tag burden increase, the likelihood of mortal injury also increases. The results of this study suggest that previous survival estimates of juvenile Chinook salmon passing through hydro turbines may have been biased due to the presence of telemetry tags, and this has direct implications to the management of hydroelectric facilities. Realistic examples indicate how the bias in turbine passage survival estimates could be 20% or higher, depending on the mass of the implanted tags and the ratio of acclimation to exposure pressures. Bias would increase as the tag burden and pressure ratio increase, and have direct implications on survival estimates. It is recommended that future survival studies use the smallest telemetry tags possible to minimize the potential bias that may be associated with carrying the tag.« less

Multivariate Longitudinal Analysis with Bivariate Correlation Test

PubMed Central

Adjakossa, Eric Houngla; Sadissou, Ibrahim; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Nuel, Gregory

2016-01-01

In the context of multivariate multilevel data analysis, this paper focuses on the multivariate linear mixed-effects model, including all the correlations between the random effects when the dimensional residual terms are assumed uncorrelated. Using the EM algorithm, we suggest more general expressions of the model’s parameters estimators. These estimators can be used in the framework of the multivariate longitudinal data analysis as well as in the more general context of the analysis of multivariate multilevel data. By using a likelihood ratio test, we test the significance of the correlations between the random effects of two dependent variables of the model, in order to investigate whether or not it is useful to model these dependent variables jointly. Simulation studies are done to assess both the parameter recovery performance of the EM estimators and the power of the test. Using two empirical data sets which are of longitudinal multivariate type and multivariate multilevel type, respectively, the usefulness of the test is illustrated. PMID:27537692

Multivariate Longitudinal Analysis with Bivariate Correlation Test.

PubMed

Adjakossa, Eric Houngla; Sadissou, Ibrahim; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Nuel, Gregory

2016-01-01

In the context of multivariate multilevel data analysis, this paper focuses on the multivariate linear mixed-effects model, including all the correlations between the random effects when the dimensional residual terms are assumed uncorrelated. Using the EM algorithm, we suggest more general expressions of the model's parameters estimators. These estimators can be used in the framework of the multivariate longitudinal data analysis as well as in the more general context of the analysis of multivariate multilevel data. By using a likelihood ratio test, we test the significance of the correlations between the random effects of two dependent variables of the model, in order to investigate whether or not it is useful to model these dependent variables jointly. Simulation studies are done to assess both the parameter recovery performance of the EM estimators and the power of the test. Using two empirical data sets which are of longitudinal multivariate type and multivariate multilevel type, respectively, the usefulness of the test is illustrated.

A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Functional Mapping of Longitudinal Binary Traits

PubMed Central

Wang, Chenguang; Li, Hongying; Wang, Zhong; Wang, Yaqun; Wang, Ningtao; Wang, Zuoheng; Wu, Rongling

2013-01-01

Despite their importance in biology and biomedicine, genetic mapping of binary traits that change over time has not been well explored. In this article, we develop a statistical model for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) that govern longitudinal responses of binary traits. The model is constructed within the maximum likelihood framework by which the association between binary responses is modeled in terms of conditional log odds-ratios. With this parameterization, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of marginal mean parameters are robust to the misspecification of time dependence. We implement an iterative procedures to obtain the MLEs of QTL genotype-specific parameters that define longitudinal binary responses. The usefulness of the model was validated by analyzing a real example in rice. Simulation studies were performed to investigate the statistical properties of the model, showing that the model has power to identify and map specific QTLs responsible for the temporal pattern of binary traits. PMID:23183762

Accounting for informatively missing data in logistic regression by means of reassessment sampling.

PubMed

Lin, Ji; Lyles, Robert H

2015-05-20

We explore the 'reassessment' design in a logistic regression setting, where a second wave of sampling is applied to recover a portion of the missing data on a binary exposure and/or outcome variable. We construct a joint likelihood function based on the original model of interest and a model for the missing data mechanism, with emphasis on non-ignorable missingness. The estimation is carried out by numerical maximization of the joint likelihood function with close approximation of the accompanying Hessian matrix, using sharable programs that take advantage of general optimization routines in standard software. We show how likelihood ratio tests can be used for model selection and how they facilitate direct hypothesis testing for whether missingness is at random. Examples and simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Case complexity scores in congenital heart surgery: a comparative study of the Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system.

PubMed

Al-Radi, Osman O; Harrell, Frank E; Caldarone, Christopher A; McCrindle, Brian W; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Williams, M Gail; Van Arsdell, Glen S; Williams, William G

2007-04-01

The Aristotle Basic Complexity score and the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery system were developed by consensus to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. We compared the predictive value of the 2 systems. Of all index congenital cardiac operations at our institution from 1982 to 2004 (n = 13,675), we were able to assign an Aristotle Basic Complexity score, a Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery score, and both scores to 13,138 (96%), 11,533 (84%), and 11,438 (84%) operations, respectively. Models of in-hospital mortality and length of stay were generated for Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery using an identical data set in which both Aristotle Basic Complexity and Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were assigned. The likelihood ratio test for nested models and paired concordance statistics were used. After adjustment for year of operation, the odds ratios for Aristotle Basic Complexity score 3 versus 6, 9 versus 6, 12 versus 6, and 15 versus 6 were 0.29, 2.22, 7.62, and 26.54 (P < .0001). Similarly, odds ratios for Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery categories 1 versus 2, 3 versus 2, 4 versus 2, and 5/6 versus 2 were 0.23, 1.98, 5.80, and 20.71 (P < .0001). Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery added significant predictive value over Aristotle Basic Complexity (likelihood ratio chi2 = 162, P < .0001), whereas Aristotle Basic Complexity contributed much less predictive value over Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (likelihood ratio chi2 = 13.4, P = .009). Neither system fully adjusted for the child's age. The Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery scores were more concordant with length of stay compared with Aristotle Basic Complexity scores (P < .0001). The predictive value of Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery is higher than that of Aristotle Basic Complexity. The use of Aristotle Basic Complexity or Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery as risk stratification and trending tools to monitor outcomes over time and to guide risk-adjusted comparisons may be valuable.

Severe hyperkalemia can be detected immediately by quantitative electrocardiography and clinical history in patients with symptomatic or extreme bradycardia: a retrospective cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Chon, Sung-Bin; Kwak, Young Ho; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Oh, Won Sup; Bae, Jun-Ho

2013-12-01

Detecting severe hyperkalemia is challenging. We explored its prevalence in symptomatic or extreme bradycardia and devised a diagnostic rule. This retrospective cross-sectional study included patients with symptomatic (heart rate [HR] ≤ 50/min with dyspnea, chest pain, altered mentality, dizziness/syncope/presyncope, general weakness, oliguria, or shock) or extreme (HR ≤ 40/min) bradycardia at an emergency department for 46 months. Risk factors for severe hyperkalemia were chosen by multiple logistic regression analysis from history (sex, age, comorbidities, and medications), vital signs, and electrocardiography (ECG; maximum precordial T-wave amplitude, PR, and QRS intervals). The derived diagnostic index was validated using bootstrapping method. Among the 169 participants enrolled, 87 (51.5%) were female. The mean (SD) age was 71.2 (12.5) years. Thirty-six (21.3%) had severe hyperkalemia. The diagnostic summed "maximum precordial T ≥ 8.5 mV (2)," "atrial fibrillation/junctional bradycardia (1)," "HR ≤ 42/min (1)," "diltiazem medication (2)," and "diabetes mellitus (1)." The C-statistics were 0.86 (0.80-0.93) and were validated. For scores of 4 or higher, sensitivity was 0.50, specificity was 0.92, and positive likelihood ratio was 6.02. The "ECG-only index," which sums the 3 ECG findings, had a sensitivity of 0.50, specificity of 0.90, and likelihood ratio (+) of 5.10 for scores of 3 or higher. Severe hyperkalemia is prevalent in symptomatic or extreme bradycardia and detectable by quantitative electrocardiographic parameters and history. © 2013.

Validation of Indian diabetic risk score in diagnosing type 2 diabetes mellitus against high fasting blood sugar levels among adult population of central India.

PubMed

Bhadoria, Ajeet Singh; Kasar, Pradeep Kumar; Toppo, Neelam Anupama

2015-01-01

Globally the increasing prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is major public health concern. The Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) was developed by Madras Diabetes Research Foundation (MDRF) as a simple tool to help detect undiagnosed type 2 DM (T2DM) in the community. We conducted a study among 911 adults of Jabalpur District to validate the IDRS score against increased fasting blood sugar levels in diagnosing T2DM. T2DM was confirmed either by history of previously known disease or fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dl on two occasions. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, Youden index (sensitivity + specificity -1), likelihood ratio for positive test, and likelihood ratio for negative test were calculated for IDRS cut-offs of ≥20, ≥40, ≥60, and ≥80 against the presence of T2DM (either known diabetic or fasting plasma glucose >126 mg/dl on two occasions). The overall prevalence of T2DM was 9.99% (95% confidence interval, 8.04-11.94%). In the Receiver operating characteristic analysis, IDRS had an area under the curve of 0.736 (P < 0.001). The best cut-off was IDRS 40 with a sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index of 60.4%, 70.7%, and 0.31, respectively. The findings of our study indicate that IDRS has excellent predictive value for detecting undiagnosed diabetes in the community and IDRS is also a much stronger risk indicator than examining individual risk factors like age, family history, obesity, or physical activity.

Comparison of different risk stratification systems in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients.

PubMed

Safari, Saeed; Baratloo, Alireza; Hashemi, Behrooz; Rahmati, Farhad; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Motamedi, Maryam; Mirmohseni, Ladan

2016-01-01

Determining etiologic causes and prognosis can significantly improve management of syncope patients. The present study aimed to compare the values of San Francisco, Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio (OESIL), Boston, and Risk Stratification of Syncope in the Emergency Department (ROSE) score clinical decision rules in predicting the short-term serious outcome of syncope patients. The present diagnostic accuracy study with 1-week follow-up was designed to evaluate the predictive values of the four mentioned clinical decision rules. Screening performance characteristics of each model in predicting mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) were calculated and compared. To evaluate the value of each aforementioned model in predicting the outcome, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated and receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was done. A total of 187 patients (mean age: 64.2 ± 17.2 years) were enrolled in the study. Mortality, MI, and CVA were seen in 19 (10.2%), 12 (6.4%), and 36 (19.2%) patients, respectively. Area under the ROC curve for OESIL, San Francisco, Boston, and ROSE models in prediction the risk of 1-week mortality, MI, and CVA was in the 30-70% range, with no significant difference among models ( P > 0.05). The pooled model did not show higher accuracy in prediction of mortality, MI, and CVA compared to others ( P > 0.05). This study revealed the weakness of all four evaluated models in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients referred to the emergency department without any significant advantage for one among others.

Diagnostic Abilities of Variable and Enhanced Corneal Compensation Algorithms of GDx in Different Severities of Glaucoma.

PubMed

Yadav, Ravi K; Begum, Viquar U; Addepalli, Uday K; Senthil, Sirisha; Garudadri, Chandra S; Rao, Harsha L

2016-02-01

To compare the abilities of retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) parameters of variable corneal compensation (VCC) and enhanced corneal compensation (ECC) algorithms of scanning laser polarimetry (GDx) in detecting various severities of glaucoma. Two hundred and eighty-five eyes of 194 subjects from the Longitudinal Glaucoma Evaluation Study who underwent GDx VCC and ECC imaging were evaluated. Abilities of RNFL parameters of GDx VCC and ECC to diagnose glaucoma were compared using area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), sensitivities at fixed specificities, and likelihood ratios. After excluding 5 eyes that failed to satisfy manufacturer-recommended quality parameters with ECC and 68 with VCC, 56 eyes of 41 normal subjects and 161 eyes of 121 glaucoma patients [36 eyes with preperimetric glaucoma, 52 eyes with early (MD>-6 dB), 34 with moderate (MD between -6 and -12 dB), and 39 with severe glaucoma (MD<-12 dB)] were included for the analysis. Inferior RNFL, average RNFL, and nerve fiber indicator parameters showed the best AUCs and sensitivities both with GDx VCC and ECC in diagnosing all severities of glaucoma. AUCs and sensitivities of all RNFL parameters were comparable between the VCC and ECC algorithms (P>0.20 for all comparisons). Likelihood ratios associated with the diagnostic categorization of RNFL parameters were comparable between the VCC and ECC algorithms. In scans satisfying the manufacturer-recommended quality parameters, which were significantly greater with ECC than VCC algorithm, diagnostic abilities of GDx ECC and VCC in glaucoma were similar.

Parental decisions following prenatal diagnosis of sex chromosome aneuploidy in Hong Kong.

PubMed

So, Po Lam; Cheng, Kwun Yue Yvonne; Cheuk, Kwan Yiu; Chiu, Wan Kam; Mak, Shui Lam; Mok, Sau Lan; Lo, Tsz Kin; Yung, Wai Kuen; Lo, Fai Man; Chung, Hon Yin Brian; Kan, Sik Yau Anita; Lee, Chin Peng; Tang, Hoi Yin Mary

2017-12-01

According to the published work, pregnancy termination rates due to prenatal diagnosis of fetal sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCA) vary widely. Some potentially modifiable and non-modifiable factors have been reported to be associated with parental decision. This study aimed to evaluate the rate of pregnancy termination for fetal SCA and the factors influencing parents' decisions in Hong Kong. This was a 21-year retrospective cohort study of parents' decisions following prenatal diagnosis of SCA. Univariate and multivariate analyses for the association between demographic factors, prenatal factors, or counseling provided and decision-making were conducted. The study included 399 pregnancies with prenatal diagnosis of SCA and the overall termination rate was 55.6% (91.7%, 48.0%, 23.4%, 4.8%, and 22.7% for 45,X, 47,XXY, 47,XXX, 47,XYY, and mosaicism, respectively). Pregnancies with ultrasound abnormalities were associated with higher termination rates than pregnancies with normal ultrasound findings (91.3% vs 28.3%, P < 0.0001). From multivariate regression analysis on 226 pregnancies with normal ultrasound examination, a higher likelihood to terminate was found in pregnancies affected by 45,X and 47,XXY (adjusted odds ratio, 4.72, P < 0.0001). Increased maternal age and history of infertility were associated with lower likelihood to terminate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.9, P = 0.012; and 5.12, P = 0.038, respectively). The pregnancy termination rate declined over time. A significant correlation was found between the termination of SCA-affected pregnancy and the presence of fetal sonographic abnormalities, type of SCA, maternal age, and presence of infertility. © 2017 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Detection of scabies: A systematic review of diagnostic methods

PubMed Central

Leung, Victor; Miller, Mark

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Accurate diagnosis of scabies infection is important for patient treatment and for public health control of scabies epidemics. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the accuracy and precision of history, physical examination and tests for diagnosing scabies. METHODS: Using a structured search strategy, Medline and Embase databases were searched for English and French language articles that included a diagnosis of scabies. Studies comparing history, physical examination and/or any diagnostic tests with the reference standard of microscopic visualization of mites, eggs or fecal elements obtained from skin scrapings or biopsies were included for analysis. Data were extracted using standard criteria. RESULTS: History and examination of pruritic dermatoses failed to accurately diagnose scabies infection. Dermatoscopy by a trained practitioner has a positive likelihood ratio of 6.5 (95% CI 4.1 to 10.3) and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.1 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.2) for diagnosing scabies. The accuracy of other diagnostic tests could not be calculated from the data in the literature. CONCLUSIONS: In the face of such diagnostic inaccuracy, clinical judgment is still practical in diagnosing scabies. Two tests are used – the burrow ink test and handheld dermatoscopy. The burrow ink test is a simple, rapid, noninvasive test that can be used to screen a large number of patients. Handheld dermatoscopy is an accurate test, but requires special equipment and trained practitioners. Given the morbidity and costs of scabies infection, and that studies to date lack adequate internal and external validity, research to identify or develop accurate diagnostic tests for scabies infection is needed and justifiable. PMID:23205026

Detection of scabies: A systematic review of diagnostic methods.

PubMed

Leung, Victor; Miller, Mark

2011-01-01

Accurate diagnosis of scabies infection is important for patient treatment and for public health control of scabies epidemics. To systematically review the accuracy and precision of history, physical examination and tests for diagnosing scabies. Using a structured search strategy, Medline and Embase databases were searched for English and French language articles that included a diagnosis of scabies. Studies comparing history, physical examination and/or any diagnostic tests with the reference standard of microscopic visualization of mites, eggs or fecal elements obtained from skin scrapings or biopsies were included for analysis. Data were extracted using standard criteria. History and examination of pruritic dermatoses failed to accurately diagnose scabies infection. Dermatoscopy by a trained practitioner has a positive likelihood ratio of 6.5 (95% CI 4.1 to 10.3) and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.1 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.2) for diagnosing scabies. The accuracy of other diagnostic tests could not be calculated from the data in the literature. In the face of such diagnostic inaccuracy, clinical judgment is still practical in diagnosing scabies. Two tests are used - the burrow ink test and handheld dermatoscopy. The burrow ink test is a simple, rapid, noninvasive test that can be used to screen a large number of patients. Handheld dermatoscopy is an accurate test, but requires special equipment and trained practitioners. Given the morbidity and costs of scabies infection, and that studies to date lack adequate internal and external validity, research to identify or develop accurate diagnostic tests for scabies infection is needed and justifiable.

Interpretation of FTIR spectra of polymers and Raman spectra of car paints by means of likelihood ratio approach supported by wavelet transform for reducing data dimensionality.

PubMed

Martyna, Agnieszka; Michalska, Aleksandra; Zadora, Grzegorz

2015-05-01

The problem of interpretation of common provenance of the samples within the infrared spectra database of polypropylene samples from car body parts and plastic containers as well as Raman spectra databases of blue solid and metallic automotive paints was under investigation. The research involved statistical tools such as likelihood ratio (LR) approach for expressing the evidential value of observed similarities and differences in the recorded spectra. Since the LR models can be easily proposed for databases described by a few variables, research focused on the problem of spectra dimensionality reduction characterised by more than a thousand variables. The objective of the studies was to combine the chemometric tools easily dealing with multidimensionality with an LR approach. The final variables used for LR models' construction were derived from the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) as a data dimensionality reduction technique supported by methods for variance analysis and corresponded with chemical information, i.e. typical absorption bands for polypropylene and peaks associated with pigments present in the car paints. Univariate and multivariate LR models were proposed, aiming at obtaining more information about the chemical structure of the samples. Their performance was controlled by estimating the levels of false positive and false negative answers and using the empirical cross entropy approach. The results for most of the LR models were satisfactory and enabled solving the stated comparison problems. The results prove that the variables generated from DWT preserve signal characteristic, being a sparse representation of the original signal by keeping its shape and relevant chemical information.

The status of women at one academic medical center. Breaking through the glass ceiling.

PubMed

Nickerson, K G; Bennett, N M; Estes, D; Shea, S

1990-10-10

Despite recent gains in admission to medical school and in obtaining junior faculty positions, women remain underrepresented at senior academic ranks and in leadership positions in medicine. This discrepancy has been interpreted as evidence of a "glass ceiling" that prevents all but a few exceptional women from gaining access to leadership positions. We analyzed data from Columbia University College of Physicians & Surgeons, New York, NY, for all faculty hired from 1969 through 1988 and found that the likelihood of promotion on the tenure track was 0.40 for women and 0.48 for men (ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.56 to 1.20); on the clinical track the likelihood of promotion was 0.75 for women and 0.72 for men (ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.56 to 1.94). Additional analysis of current faculty showed that in the academic year 1988-1989 the proportion of women at each tenure track rank at the College of Physicians & Surgeons equaled or exceeded the national proportion of women graduating from medical school, once allowance was made for the average time lag necessary to attain each rank. On the clinical track women were somewhat overrepresented, particularly at the junior rank. National data that describe medical school faculty, which combine tenure and clinical tracks, showed that in 1988 women were proportionately represented at each rank once the lead time from graduation was considered. We conclude that objective evidence shows that women can succeed and are succeeding in gaining promotions in academic medicine.

[Diagnostic management in paediatric blunt abdominal trauma - a systematic review with metaanalysis].

PubMed

Schöneberg, C; Tampier, S; Hussmann, B; Lendemans, S; Waydhas, C

2014-12-01

The objective of this systematic review was to investigate the diagnostic management in paediatric blunt abdominal injuries. A literature research was performed using following sources: MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane. Where it was possible a meta-analysis was performed. Furthermore the level of evidence for all publications was assigned. Indicators for intraabdominal injury (IAI) were elevated liver transaminases, abnormal abdominal examinations, low systolic blood pressure, reduced haematocrit and microhematuria. Detecting IAI with focused assessment with sonography for trauma (FAST) had an overall sensitivity of 56.5 %, a specificity of 94.68 %, a positive likelihood ratio of 10.63 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.46. The accuracy was 84.02 %. Among haemodynamically unstable children the sensitivity and specificity were 100 %. The overall prevalence of IAI and negative CT was 0.19 %. The NPV of abdominal CT for diagnosing IAI was 99.8 %. The laparotomy rate in patients with isolated intraperitoneal fluid (IIF) in one location was 3.48 % and 56.52 % in patients with IIF in more than one location. FAST as an isolated tool in the diagnostics after blunt abdominal injury is very uncertain, because of the modest sensitivity. Discharging children after blunt abdominal trauma with a negative abdominal CT scan seems to be safe. When IIF is detected on CT scan, it depends on the number of locations involved. If IIF is found only in 1 location, IAI is uncommon, while IIF in two or more locations results in a high laparotomy rate. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Utility of a brief assessment tool developed from the Dizziness Handicap Inventory to screen for Cervicogenic dizziness: A case control study.

PubMed

Reid, Susan A; Callister, Robin; Katekar, Michael G; Treleaven, Julia M

2017-08-01

Cervicogenic dizziness (CGD) is hard to diagnose as there is no objective test. Can a brief assessment tool be derived from the Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI) to assist in screening for CGD? Case-control study with split-sample analysis. 86 people with CGD and 86 people with general dizziness completed the DHI as part of the assessment of their dizziness. Descriptive statistics were used to assess how frequently each question on the DHI was answered 'yes' or 'sometimes' by participants with CGD and by participants with general dizziness. The questions that best discriminated between GCD and general dizziness were compiled into a brief assessment tool for CGD. Data from 80 participants (40 from each group) were used to generate a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to establish a cut-off score for that brief assessment tool. Then, data from the remaining 92 participants were used to try to validate the diagnostic ability of the brief assessment tool using that cut-off score. Questions 1, 9 and 11 were the most discriminatory and were combined to form the brief assessment tool. The ROC curve indicated an optimal threshold of 9. The diagnostic ability of the brief assessment tool among the remaining 46 participants from each group was: sensitivity 77% (95% CI: 67 to 84), specificity 66% (56-75), positive likelihood ratio 2.28 (1.66-3.13), and negative likelihood ratio 0.35 (0.23-0.53). A brief assessment tool of three questions appears to be helpful in screening for CGD. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Diagnostic accuracy of second-generation dual-source computed tomography coronary angiography with iterative reconstructions: a real-world experience.

PubMed

Maffei, E; Martini, C; Rossi, A; Mollet, N; Lario, C; Castiglione Morelli, M; Clemente, A; Gentile, G; Arcadi, T; Seitun, S; Catalano, O; Aldrovandi, A; Cademartiri, F

2012-08-01

The authors evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of second-generation dual-source (DSCT) computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) with iterative reconstructions for detecting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Between June 2010 and February 2011, we enrolled 160 patients (85 men; mean age 61.2±11.6 years) with suspected CAD. All patients underwent CTCA and conventional coronary angiography (CCA). For the CTCA scan (Definition Flash, Siemens), we use prospective tube current modulation and 70-100 ml of iodinated contrast material (Iomeprol 400 mgI/ ml, Bracco). Data sets were reconstructed with iterative reconstruction algorithm (IRIS, Siemens). CTCA and CCA reports were used to evaluate accuracy using the threshold for significant stenosis at ≥50% and ≥70%, respectively. No patient was excluded from the analysis. Heart rate was 64.3±11.9 bpm and radiation dose was 7.2±2.1 mSv. Disease prevalence was 30% (48/160). Sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of CTCA in detecting significant stenosis were 90.1%, 93.3%, 53.2% and 99.1% (per segment), 97.5%, 91.2%, 61.4% and 99.6% (per vessel) and 100%, 83%, 71.6% and 100% (per patient), respectively. Positive and negative likelihood ratios at the per-patient level were 5.89 and 0.0, respectively. CTCA with second-generation DSCT in the real clinical world shows a diagnostic performance comparable with previously reported validation studies. The excellent negative predictive value and likelihood ratio make CTCA a first-line noninvasive method for diagnosing obstructive CAD.

Diagnostic value of history-taking and physical examination for assessing meniscal tears of the knee in general practice.

PubMed

Wagemakers, Harry Pa; Heintjes, Edith M; Boks, Simone S; Berger, Marjolein Y; Verhaar, Jan An; Koes, Bart W; Bierma-Zeinstra, Sita Ma

2008-01-01

To assess the diagnostic value of history-taking and physical examination of meniscal tears in general practice. An observational study determining diagnostic values (sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, and likelihood ratios). General practice. Consecutive patients aged 18 to 65 years with a traumatic knee injury who consulted their general practitioner within 5 weeks after trauma. Participating patients filled out a questionnaire (history-taking) followed by a standardized physical examination. Assessment of meniscal tears was determined by means of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and was performed blinded for the results of physical examination and history-taking. Of the 134 patients included in this study, 47 had a meniscal tear. From history-taking, the determinants "age over 40 years," "continuation of activity impossible," and "weight-bearing during trauma" indicated an association with a meniscal tear after multivariate logistic regression analysis, whereas from physical examination only "pain at passive flexion" indicated an association. These associated determinants from history-taking showed some diagnostic value; the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) reached up to 2.0 for age over 40 years, whereas the isolated test pain at passive flexion from physical examination has less diagnostic value, with an LR+ of 1.3. Combining determinants from history-taking and physical examination improved the diagnostic value with a maximum LR+ of 5.8; however, this combination only applied to a limited number of patients. History-taking has some diagnostic value, whereas physical examination did not add any diagnostic value for detecting meniscal tears in general practice.

New insights into galaxy structure from GALPHAT- I. Motivation, methodology and benchmarks for Sérsic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Ilsang; Weinberg, Martin D.; Katz, Neal

2011-06-01

We introduce a new galaxy image decomposition tool, GALPHAT (GALaxy PHotometric ATtributes), which is a front-end application of the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo package, to provide full posterior probability distributions and reliable confidence intervals for all model parameters. The BIE relies on GALPHAT to compute the likelihood function. GALPHAT generates scale-free cumulative image tables for the desired model family with precise error control. Interpolation of this table yields accurate pixellated images with any centre, scale and inclination angle. GALPHAT then rotates the image by position angle using a Fourier shift theorem, yielding high-speed, accurate likelihood computation. We benchmark this approach using an ensemble of simulated Sérsic model galaxies over a wide range of observational conditions: the signal-to-noise ratio S/N, the ratio of galaxy size to the point spread function (PSF) and the image size, and errors in the assumed PSF; and a range of structural parameters: the half-light radius re and the Sérsic index n. We characterize the strength of parameter covariance in the Sérsic model, which increases with S/N and n, and the results strongly motivate the need for the full posterior probability distribution in galaxy morphology analyses and later inferences. The test results for simulated galaxies successfully demonstrate that, with a careful choice of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and fast model image generation, GALPHAT is a powerful analysis tool for reliably inferring morphological parameters from a large ensemble of galaxies over a wide range of different observational conditions.

Global validation of the WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections: a prospective multicentre study (WISS Study).

PubMed

Sartelli, Massimo; Abu-Zidan, Fikri M; Catena, Fausto; Griffiths, Ewen A; Di Saverio, Salomone; Coimbra, Raul; Ordoñez, Carlos A; Leppaniemi, Ari; Fraga, Gustavo P; Coccolini, Federico; Agresta, Ferdinando; Abbas, Asrhaf; Abdel Kader, Saleh; Agboola, John; Amhed, Adamu; Ajibade, Adesina; Akkucuk, Seckin; Alharthi, Bandar; Anyfantakis, Dimitrios; Augustin, Goran; Baiocchi, Gianluca; Bala, Miklosh; Baraket, Oussama; Bayrak, Savas; Bellanova, Giovanni; Beltràn, Marcelo A; Bini, Roberto; Boal, Matthew; Borodach, Andrey V; Bouliaris, Konstantinos; Branger, Frederic; Brunelli, Daniele; Catani, Marco; Che Jusoh, Asri; Chichom-Mefire, Alain; Cocorullo, Gianfranco; Colak, Elif; Costa, David; Costa, Silvia; Cui, Yunfeng; Curca, Geanina Loredana; Curry, Terry; Das, Koray; Delibegovic, Samir; Demetrashvili, Zaza; Di Carlo, Isidoro; Drozdova, Nadezda; El Zalabany, Tamer; Enani, Mushira Abdulaziz; Faro, Mario; Gachabayov, Mahir; Giménez Maurel, Teresa; Gkiokas, Georgios; Gomes, Carlos Augusto; Gonsaga, Ricardo Alessandro Teixeira; Guercioni, Gianluca; Guner, Ali; Gupta, Sanjay; Gutierrez, Sandra; Hutan, Martin; Ioannidis, Orestis; Isik, Arda; Izawa, Yoshimitsu; Jain, Sumita A; Jokubauskas, Mantas; Karamarkovic, Aleksandar; Kauhanen, Saila; Kaushik, Robin; Kenig, Jakub; Khokha, Vladimir; Kim, Jae Il; Kong, Victor; Koshy, Renol; Krasniqi, Avidyl; Kshirsagar, Ashok; Kuliesius, Zygimantas; Lasithiotakis, Konstantinos; Leão, Pedro; Lee, Jae Gil; Leon, Miguel; Lizarazu Pérez, Aintzane; Lohsiriwat, Varut; López-Tomassetti Fernandez, Eudaldo; Lostoridis, Eftychios; Mn, Raghuveer; Major, Piotr; Marinis, Athanasios; Marrelli, Daniele; Martinez-Perez, Aleix; Marwah, Sanjay; McFarlane, Michael; Melo, Renato Bessa; Mesina, Cristian; Michalopoulos, Nick; Moldovanu, Radu; Mouaqit, Ouadii; Munyika, Akutu; Negoi, Ionut; Nikolopoulos, Ioannis; Nita, Gabriela Elisa; Olaoye, Iyiade; Omari, Abdelkarim; Ossa, Paola Rodríguez; Ozkan, Zeynep; Padmakumar, Ramakrishnapillai; Pata, Francesco; Pereira Junior, Gerson Alves; Pereira, Jorge; Pintar, Tadeja; Pouggouras, Konstantinos; Prabhu, Vinod; Rausei, Stefano; Rems, Miran; Rios-Cruz, Daniel; Sakakushev, Boris; Sánchez de Molina, Maria Luisa; Seretis, Charampolos; Shelat, Vishal; Simões, Romeo Lages; Sinibaldi, Giovanni; Skrovina, Matej; Smirnov, Dmitry; Spyropoulos, Charalampos; Tepp, Jaan; Tezcaner, Tugan; Tolonen, Matti; Torba, Myftar; Ulrych, Jan; Uzunoglu, Mustafa Yener; van Dellen, David; van Ramshorst, Gabrielle H; Vasquez, Giorgio; Venara, Aurélien; Vereczkei, Andras; Vettoretto, Nereo; Vlad, Nutu; Yadav, Sanjay Kumar; Yilmaz, Tonguç Utku; Yuan, Kuo-Ching; Zachariah, Sanoop Koshy; Zida, Maurice; Zilinskas, Justas; Ansaloni, Luca

2015-01-01

To validate a new practical Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) including the clinical conditions at the admission (severe sepsis/septic shock), the origin of the cIAIs, the delay in source control, the setting of acquisition and any risk factors such as age and immunosuppression. The WISS study (WSES cIAIs Score Study) is a multicenter observational study underwent in 132 medical institutions worldwide during a four-month study period (October 2014-February 2015). Four thousand five hundred thirty-three patients with a mean age of 51.2 years (range 18-99) were enrolled in the WISS study. Univariate analysis has shown that all factors that were previously included in the WSES Sepsis Severity Score were highly statistically significant between those who died and those who survived (p < 0.0001). The multivariate logistic regression model was highly significant (p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.54) and showed that all these factors were independent in predicting mortality of sepsis. Receiver Operator Curve has shown that the WSES Severity Sepsis Score had an excellent prediction for mortality. A score above 5.5 was the best predictor of mortality having a sensitivity of 89.2 %, a specificity of 83.5 % and a positive likelihood ratio of 5.4. WSES Sepsis Severity Score for patients with complicated Intra-abdominal infections can be used on global level. It has shown high sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio that may help us in making clinical decisions.

Mallampati test as a predictor of laryngoscopic view.

PubMed

Adamus, Milan; Fritscherova, Sarka; Hrabalek, Lumir; Gabrhelik, Tomas; Zapletalova, Jana; Janout, Vladimir

2010-12-01

To determine the accuracy of the modified Mallampati test for predicting difficult tracheal intubation. A cross-sectional, clinical, observational, non-blinded study. A quality analysis of anesthetic care. Operating theatres and department of anesthesiology in a university hospital. Following the local ethics committee approval and patients' informed consent to anesthesia, all adult patients (> 18 yrs) presenting for any type of non-emergency surgical procedures under general anesthesia requiring endotracheal intubation were enrolled. Prior to anesthesia, Samsoon and Young's modification of the Mallampati test (modified Mallampati test) was performed. Following induction, the anesthesiologist described the laryngoscopic view using the Cormack-Lehane scale. Classes 3 or 4 of the modified Mallampati test were considered a predictor of difficult intubation. Grades 3 or 4 of the Cormack-Lehane classification of the laryngoscopic view were defined as impaired glottic exposure. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, relative risk, likelihood ratio and accuracy of the modified Mallampati test were calculated on 2x2 contingency tables. Of the total 1,518 patients enrolled, 48 had difficult intubation (3.2%). We failed to detect as many as 35.4% patients in whom glottis exposure during direct laryngoscopy was inadequate (sensitivity 0.646). Compared to the original article by Mallampati, we found lower specificity (0.824 vs. 0.995), lower positive predictive value (0.107 vs. 0.933), higher negative predictive value (0.986 vs. 0.928), lower likelihood ratio (3.68 vs. 91.0) and accuracy (0.819 vs. 0.929). When used as a single examination, the modified Mallampati test is of limited value in predicting difficult intubation.

Effectiveness of sampling methods employed for Acanthamoeba keratitis diagnosis by culture.

PubMed

Muiño, Laura; Rodrigo, Donoso; Villegas, Rodrigo; Romero, Pablo; Peredo, Daniel E; Vargas, Rafael A; Liempi, Daniela; Osuna, Antonio; Jercic, María Isabel

2018-06-18

This retrospective, observational study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the sampling methods commonly used for the collection of corneal scrapes for the diagnosis of Acanthamoeba keratitis (AK) by culture, in terms of their ability to provide a positive result. A total of 553 samples from 380 patients with suspected AK received at the Parasitology Section of the Public Health Institute of Chile, between January 2005 and December 2015, were evaluated. A logistic regression model was used to determine the correlation between the culture outcome (positive or negative) and the method for sample collection. The year of sample collection was also included in the analysis as a confounding variable. Three hundred and sixty-five samples (27%) from 122 patients (32.1%) were positive by culture. The distribution of sample types was as follows: 142 corneal scrapes collected using a modified bezel needle (a novel method developed by a team of Chilean corneologists), 176 corneal scrapes obtained using a scalpel, 50 corneal biopsies, 30 corneal swabs, and 155 non-biological materials including contact lens and its paraphernalia. Biopsy provided the highest likelihood ratio for a positive result by culture (1.89), followed by non-biological materials (1.10) and corneal scrapes obtained using a modified needle (1.00). The lowest likelihood ratio was estimated for corneal scrapes obtained using a scalpel (0.88) and cotton swabs (0.78). Apart from biopsy, optimum corneal samples for the improved diagnosis of AK can be obtained using a modified bezel needle instead of a scalpel, while cotton swabs are not recommended.

A discriminant function model as an alternative method to spirometry for COPD screening in primary care settings in China.

PubMed

Cui, Jiangyu; Zhou, Yumin; Tian, Jia; Wang, Xinwang; Zheng, Jingping; Zhong, Nanshan; Ran, Pixin

2012-12-01

COPD is often underdiagnosed in a primary care setting where the spirometry is unavailable. This study was aimed to develop a simple, economical and applicable model for COPD screening in those settings. First we established a discriminant function model based on Bayes' Rule by stepwise discriminant analysis, using the data from 243 COPD patients and 112 non-COPD subjects from our COPD survey in urban and rural communities and local primary care settings in Guangdong Province, China. We then used this model to discriminate COPD in additional 150 subjects (50 non-COPD and 100 COPD ones) who had been recruited by the same methods as used to have established the model. All participants completed pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry and questionnaires. COPD was diagnosed according to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease criteria. The sensitivity and specificity of the discriminant function model was assessed. THE ESTABLISHED DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION MODEL INCLUDED NINE VARIABLES: age, gender, smoking index, body mass index, occupational exposure, living environment, wheezing, cough and dyspnoea. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, accuracy and error rate of the function model to discriminate COPD were 89.00%, 82.00%, 4.94, 0.13, 86.66% and 13.34%, respectively. The accuracy and Kappa value of the function model to predict COPD stages were 70% and 0.61 (95% CI, 0.50 to 0.71). This discriminant function model may be used for COPD screening in primary care settings in China as an alternative option instead of spirometry.

Testing the Potential of Vegetation Indices for Land Use/cover Classification Using High Resolution Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakacan Kuzucu, A.; Bektas Balcik, F.

2017-11-01

Accurate and reliable land use/land cover (LULC) information obtained by remote sensing technology is necessary in many applications such as environmental monitoring, agricultural management, urban planning, hydrological applications, soil management, vegetation condition study and suitability analysis. But this information still remains a challenge especially in heterogeneous landscapes covering urban and rural areas due to spectrally similar LULC features. In parallel with technological developments, supplementary data such as satellite-derived spectral indices have begun to be used as additional bands in classification to produce data with high accuracy. The aim of this research is to test the potential of spectral vegetation indices combination with supervised classification methods and to extract reliable LULC information from SPOT 7 multispectral imagery. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Ratio Vegetation Index (RATIO), the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) were the three vegetation indices used in this study. The classical maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithm were applied to classify SPOT 7 image. Catalca is selected region located in the north west of the Istanbul in Turkey, which has complex landscape covering artificial surface, forest and natural area, agricultural field, quarry/mining area, pasture/scrubland and water body. Accuracy assessment of all classified images was performed through overall accuracy and kappa coefficient. The results indicated that the incorporation of these three different vegetation indices decrease the classification accuracy for the MLC and SVM classification. In addition, the maximum likelihood classification slightly outperformed the support vector machine classification approach in both overall accuracy and kappa statistics.

Traumatic aortic injury score (TRAINS): an easy and simple score for early detection of traumatic aortic injuries in major trauma patients with associated blunt chest trauma.

PubMed

Mosquera, Victor X; Marini, Milagros; Muñiz, Javier; Asorey-Veiga, Vanesa; Adrio-Nazar, Belen; Boix, Ricardo; Lopez-Perez, José M; Pradas-Montilla, Gonzalo; Cuenca, José J

2012-09-01

To develop a risk score based on physical examination and chest X-ray findings to rapidly identify major trauma patients at risk of acute traumatic aortic injury (ATAI). A multicenter retrospective study was conducted with 640 major trauma patients with associated blunt chest trauma classified into ATAI (aortic injury) and NATAI (no aortic injury) groups. The score data set included 76 consecutive ATAI and 304 NATAI patients from a single center, whereas the validation data set included 52 consecutive ATAI and 208 NATAI patients from three independent institutions. Bivariate analysis identified variables potentially influencing the presentation of aortic injury. Confirmed variables by logistic regression were assigned a score according to their corresponding beta coefficient which was rounded to the closest integer value (1-4). Predictors of aortic injury included widened mediastinum, hypotension less than 90 mmHg, long bone fracture, pulmonary contusion, left scapula fracture, hemothorax, and pelvic fracture. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.96. In the score data set, sensitivity was 93.42 %, specificity 85.85 %, Youden's index 0.79, positive likelihood ratio 6.60, and negative likelihood ratio 0.08. In the validation data set, sensitivity was 92.31 % and specificity 85.1 %. Given the relative infrequency of traumatic aortic injury, which often leads to missed or delayed diagnosis, application of our score has the potential to draw necessary clinical attention to the possibility of aortic injury, thus providing the chance of a prompt specific diagnostic and therapeutic management.

The Fecal Microbiota Profile and Bronchiolitis in Infants

PubMed Central

Linnemann, Rachel W.; Mansbach, Jonathan M.; Ajami, Nadim J.; Espinola, Janice A.; Petrosino, Joseph F.; Piedra, Pedro A.; Stevenson, Michelle D.; Sullivan, Ashley F.; Thompson, Amy D.; Camargo, Carlos A.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the association of gut microbiota, a potentially modifiable factor, with bronchiolitis in infants. We aimed to determine the association of fecal microbiota with bronchiolitis in infants. METHODS: We conducted a case–control study. As a part of multicenter prospective study, we collected stool samples from 40 infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis. We concurrently enrolled 115 age-matched healthy controls. By applying 16S rRNA gene sequencing and an unbiased clustering approach to these 155 fecal samples, we identified microbiota profiles and determined the association of microbiota profiles with likelihood of bronchiolitis. RESULTS: Overall, the median age was 3 months, 55% were male, and 54% were non-Hispanic white. Unbiased clustering of fecal microbiota identified 4 distinct profiles: Escherichia-dominant profile (30%), Bifidobacterium-dominant profile (21%), Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile (22%), and Bacteroides-dominant profile (28%). The proportion of bronchiolitis was lowest in infants with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile (15%) and highest in the Bacteroides-dominant profile (44%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 4.59 (95% confidence interval, 1.58–15.5; P = .008). In the multivariable model, the significant association between the Bacteroides-dominant profile and a greater likelihood of bronchiolitis persisted (odds ratio for comparison with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile, 4.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.56–12.0; P = .005). In contrast, the likelihood of bronchiolitis in infants with the Escherichia-dominant or Bifidobacterium-dominant profile was not significantly different compared with those with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile. CONCLUSIONS: In this case–control study, we identified 4 distinct fecal microbiota profiles in infants. The Bacteroides-dominant profile was associated with a higher likelihood of bronchiolitis. PMID:27354456

Joint Maximum Likelihood Time Delay Estimation of Unknown Event-Related Potential Signals for EEG Sensor Signal Quality Enhancement

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyungsoo; Lim, Sung-Ho; Lee, Jaeseok; Kang, Won-Seok; Moon, Cheil; Choi, Ji-Woong

2016-01-01

Electroencephalograms (EEGs) measure a brain signal that contains abundant information about the human brain function and health. For this reason, recent clinical brain research and brain computer interface (BCI) studies use EEG signals in many applications. Due to the significant noise in EEG traces, signal processing to enhance the signal to noise power ratio (SNR) is necessary for EEG analysis, especially for non-invasive EEG. A typical method to improve the SNR is averaging many trials of event related potential (ERP) signal that represents a brain’s response to a particular stimulus or a task. The averaging, however, is very sensitive to variable delays. In this study, we propose two time delay estimation (TDE) schemes based on a joint maximum likelihood (ML) criterion to compensate the uncertain delays which may be different in each trial. We evaluate the performance for different types of signals such as random, deterministic, and real EEG signals. The results show that the proposed schemes provide better performance than other conventional schemes employing averaged signal as a reference, e.g., up to 4 dB gain at the expected delay error of 10°. PMID:27322267

Cost-Aware Design of a Discrimination Strategy for Unexploded Ordnance Cleanup

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-25

Acronyms ANN: Artificial Neural Network AUC: Area Under the Curve BRAC: Base Realignment And Closure DLRT: Distance Likelihood Ratio Test EER...Discriminative Aggregate Nonparametric [25] Artificial Neural Network ANN Discriminative Aggregate Parametric [33] 11 Results and Discussion Task #1

THESEUS: maximum likelihood superpositioning and analysis of macromolecular structures.

PubMed

Theobald, Douglas L; Wuttke, Deborah S

2006-09-01

THESEUS is a command line program for performing maximum likelihood (ML) superpositions and analysis of macromolecular structures. While conventional superpositioning methods use ordinary least-squares (LS) as the optimization criterion, ML superpositions provide substantially improved accuracy by down-weighting variable structural regions and by correcting for correlations among atoms. ML superpositioning is robust and insensitive to the specific atoms included in the analysis, and thus it does not require subjective pruning of selected variable atomic coordinates. Output includes both likelihood-based and frequentist statistics for accurate evaluation of the adequacy of a superposition and for reliable analysis of structural similarities and differences. THESEUS performs principal components analysis for analyzing the complex correlations found among atoms within a structural ensemble. ANSI C source code and selected binaries for various computing platforms are available under the GNU open source license from http://monkshood.colorado.edu/theseus/ or http://www.theseus3d.org.

Clinical impact of different scores of the mini nutritional assessment (MNA) in the diagnosis of malnutrition in patients with cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Arellano, M; Garcia-Caselles, M P; Pi-Figueras, M; Miralles, R; Torres, R M; Aguilera, A; Cervera, A M

2004-01-01

It was aimed at evaluating the clinical usefulness of the mini nutritional assessment (MNA) to identify malnutrition in elderly patients with cognitive impairment, admitted to a geriatric convalescence unit (intermediate care facility). Sixty-three patients with cognitive impairment were studied. Cognitive impairment was considered when mini mental state examination (MMSE) scores were below 21. MNA and a nutritional evaluation according to the sequential model of the American Institute of Nutrition (AIN) were performed at admission. According to the AIN criteria, malnutrition was considered, if there were abnormalities in at least one of the following parameters: albumin, cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), and branchial circumference. Based on these criteria, 27 patients (42.8%) proved to be undernourished at admission, whereas if taking the original MNA scores, 39 patients (61.9%) were undernourished, 23 (36.5%) were at risk of malnutrition, and 1 (1.5%) was normal. The analyzed population was divided in four categories (quartiles) of the MNA scores: very low ( 13.5 and 16 and 18.5). Likelihood ratios of each MNA quartile were obtained by dividing the percentage of patients in a given MNA category who were undernourished (according to AIN) by the percentage of patients in the same MNA category who were not undernourished. In the very low MNA quartile, this likelihood ratio was 2.79 and for the low MNA quartile it was 0.49. For intermediate and high MNA categories, likelihood ratios were 1.0 and 0.07 respectively. In the present study, MNA identified undernourished patients with a high clinical diagnostic impact value only, when very low scores (

Reliability and diagnostic accuracy of history and physical examination for diagnosing glenoid labral tears.

PubMed

Walsworth, Matthew K; Doukas, William C; Murphy, Kevin P; Mielcarek, Billie J; Michener, Lori A

2008-01-01

Glenoid labral tears provide a diagnostic challenge. Combinations of items in the patient history and physical examination will provide stronger diagnostic accuracy to suggest the presence or absence of glenoid labral tear than will individual items. Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 1. History and examination findings in patients with shoulder pain (N = 55) were compared with arthroscopic findings to determine diagnostic accuracy and intertester reliability. The intertester reliability of the crank, anterior slide, and active compression tests was 0.20 to 0.24. A combined history of popping or catching and positive crank or anterior slide results yielded specificities of 0.91 and 1.00 and positive likelihood ratios of 3.0 and infinity, respectively. A positive anterior slide result combined with either a positive active compression or crank result yielded specificities of 0.91 and positive likelihood ratio of 2.75 and 3.75, respectively. Requiring only a single positive finding in the combination of popping or catching and the anterior slide or crank yielded sensitivities of 0.82 and 0.89 and negative likelihood ratios of 0.31 and 0.33, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy of individual tests in previous studies is quite variable, which may be explained in part by the modest reliability of these tests. The combination of popping or catching with a positive crank or anterior slide result or a positive anterior slide result with a positive active compression or crank test result suggests the presence of a labral tear. The combined absence of popping or catching and a negative anterior slide or crank result suggests the absence of a labral tear.

Diagnosing diabetic foot osteomyelitis: is the combination of probe-to-bone test and plain radiography sufficient for high-risk inpatients?

PubMed

Aragón-Sánchez, J; Lipsky, Benjamin A; Lázaro-Martínez, J L

2011-02-01

To investigate the accuracy of the sequential combination of the probe-to-bone test and plain X-rays for diagnosing osteomyelitis in the foot of patients with diabetes. We prospectively compiled data on a series of 338 patients with diabetes with 356 episodes of foot infection who were hospitalized in the Diabetic Foot Unit of La Paloma Hospital from 1 October 2002 to 31 April 2010. For each patient we did a probe-to-bone test at the time of the initial evaluation and then obtained plain X-rays of the involved foot. All patients with positive results on either the probe-to-bone test or plain X-ray underwent an appropriate surgical procedure, which included obtaining a bone specimen that was processed for histology and culture. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios of the procedures, using the histopathological diagnosis of osteomyelitis as the criterion standard. Overall, 72.4% of patients had histologically proven osteomyelitis, 85.2% of whom had positive bone culture. The performance characteristics of both the probe-to-bone test and plain X-rays were excellent. The sequential diagnostic approach had a sensitivity of 0.97, specificity of 0.92, positive predictive value of 0.97, negative predictive value of 0.93, positive likelihood ratio of 12.8 and negative likelihood ratio of 0.02. Only 6.6% of patients with negative results on both diagnostic studies had osteomyelitis. Clinicians seeing patients in a setting similar to ours (specialized diabetic foot unit with a high prevalence of osteomyelitis) can confidently diagnose diabetic foot osteomyelitis when either the probe-to-bone test or a plain X-ray, or especially both, are positive. © 2011 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2011 Diabetes UK.

 The product of triglycerides and glucose as biomarker for screening simple steatosis and NASH in asymptomatic women.

PubMed

Simental-Mendía, Luis E; Simental-Mendía, Esteban; Rodríguez-Hernández, Heriberto; Rodríguez-Morán, Martha; Guerrero-Romero, Fernando

2016-01-01

 Introduction and aim. Given that early identification of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an important issue for primary prevention of hepatic disease, the objectives of this study were to evaluate the efficacy of the product of triglyceride and glucose levels (TyG) for screening simple steatosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in asymptomatic women, and to compare its efficacy vs. other biomarkers for recognizing NAFLD. Asymptomatic women aged 20 to 65 years were enrolled into a cross-sectional study. The optimal values of TyG, for screening simple steatosis and NASH were established on a Receiver Operating Characteristic scatter plot; the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of TyG index were estimated versus liver biopsy. According sensitivity and specificity, the efficacy of TyG was compared versus the well-known clinical biomarkers for recognizing NAFLD. A total of 50 asymptomatic women were enrolled. The best cutoff point of TyG for screening simple steatosis was 4.58 (sensitivity 0.94, specificity 0.69); in addition, the best cutoff point of TyG index for screening NASH was 4.59 (sensitivity 0.87, specificity 0.69). The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 3.03 and 0.08 for simple steatosis, and 2.80 and 0.18 for NASH. As compared versus SteatoTest, NashTest, Fatty liver index, and Algorithm, the TyG showed to be the best test for screening. TyG has high sensitivity and low negative likelihood ratio; as compared with other clinical biomarkers, the TyG showed to be the best test for screening simple steatosis and NASH.

A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation.

PubMed

Meuwly, Didier; Ramos, Daniel; Haraksim, Rudolf

2017-07-01

This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes' inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likelihood Ratio is used to evaluate the strength of the evidence for a trace specimen, e.g. a fingermark, and a reference specimen, e.g. a fingerprint, to originate from common or different sources. Some theoretical aspects of probabilities necessary for this Guideline were discussed prior to its elaboration, which started after a workshop of forensic researchers and practitioners involved in this topic. In the workshop, the following questions were addressed: "which aspects of a forensic evaluation scenario need to be validated?", "what is the role of the LR as part of a decision process?" and "how to deal with uncertainty in the LR calculation?". The questions: "what to validate?" focuses on the validation methods and criteria and "how to validate?" deals with the implementation of the validation protocol. Answers to these questions were deemed necessary with several objectives. First, concepts typical for validation standards [1], such as performance characteristics, performance metrics and validation criteria, will be adapted or applied by analogy to the LR framework. Second, a validation strategy will be defined. Third, validation methods will be described. Finally, a validation protocol and an example of validation report will be proposed, which can be applied to the forensic fields developing and validating LR methods for the evaluation of the strength of evidence at source level under the following propositions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Diagnostic Accuracy of the Slump Test for Identifying Neuropathic Pain in the Lower Limb.

PubMed

Urban, Lawrence M; MacNeil, Brian J

2015-08-01

Diagnostic accuracy study with nonconsecutive enrollment. To assess the diagnostic accuracy of the slump test for neuropathic pain (NeP) in those with low to moderate levels of chronic low back pain (LBP), and to determine whether accuracy of the slump test improves by adding anatomical or qualitative pain descriptors. Neuropathic pain has been linked with poor outcomes, likely due to inadequate diagnosis, which precludes treatment specific for NeP. Current diagnostic approaches are time consuming or lack accuracy. A convenience sample of 21 individuals with LBP, with or without radiating leg pain, was recruited. A standardized neurosensory examination was used to determine the reference diagnosis for NeP. Afterward, the slump test was administered to all participants. Reports of pain location and quality produced during the slump test were recorded. The neurosensory examination designated 11 of the 21 participants with LBP/sciatica as having NeP. The slump test displayed high sensitivity (0.91), moderate specificity (0.70), a positive likelihood ratio of 3.03, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.13. Adding the criterion of pain below the knee significantly increased specificity to 1.00 (positive likelihood ratio = 11.9). Pain-quality descriptors did not improve diagnostic accuracy. The slump test was highly sensitive in identifying NeP within the study sample. Adding a pain-location criterion improved specificity. Combining the diagnostic outcomes was very effective in identifying all those without NeP and half of those with NeP. Limitations arising from the small and narrow spectrum of participants with LBP/sciatica sampled within the study prevent application of the findings to a wider population. Diagnosis, level 4-.

Diagnostic accuracy of EEG changes during carotid endarterectomy in predicting perioperative strokes.

PubMed

Thirumala, Parthasarathy D; Thiagarajan, Karthy; Gedela, Satyanarayana; Crammond, Donald J; Balzer, Jeffrey R

2016-03-01

The 30 day stroke rate following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) ranges between 2-6%. Such periprocedural strokes are associated with a three-fold increased risk of mortality. Our primary aim was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of electroencephalogram (EEG) in predicting perioperative strokes through meta-analysis of existing literature. An extensive search for relevant literature was undertaken using PubMed and Web of Science databases. Studies were included after screening using predetermined criteria. Data was extracted and analyzed. Summary sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio were obtained. Subgroup analysis of studies using eight or more EEG channels was done. Perioperative stroke rate for the cohort of 8765 patients was 1.75%. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of EEG changes in predicting these strokes were 52% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43-61%) and 84% (95% CI, 81-86%) respectively. Summary estimates of the subgroup were similar. The diagnostic odds ratio was 5.85 (95% CI, 3.71-9.22). For the observed stroke rate, the positive likelihood ratio was 3.25 while the negative predictive value was 98.99%. According to these results, patients with perioperative strokes have six times greater odds of experiencing an intraoperative change in EEG during CEA. EEG monitoring was found to be highly specific in predicting perioperative strokes after CEA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric neutrino observations in the MINOS far detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapman, John Derek

2007-09-01

This thesis presents the results of atmospheric neutrino observations from a 12.23 ktyr exposure of the 5.42 kt MINOS Far Detector between 1st August 2003 until 1st March 2006. The separation of atmospheric neutrino events from the large background of cosmic muon events is discussed. A total of 277 candidate contained vertex v/more » $$\\bar{v}$$ μ CC data events are observed, with an expectation of 354.4±47.4 events in the absence of neutrino oscillations. A total of 182 events have clearly identified directions, 77 data events are identified as upward going, 105 data events are identified as downward going. The ratio between the measured and expected up/down ratio is: R$$data\\atop{u/d}$$/R$$MC\\atop{u/d}$$ = 0.72$$+0.13\\atop{-0.11}$$(stat.)± 0.04 (sys.). This is 2.1σ away from the expectation for no oscillations. A total of 167 data events have clearly identified charge, 112 are identified as v μ events, 55 are identified as $$\\bar{v}$$ μ events. This is the largest sample of charge-separated contained-vertex atmospheric neutrino interactions so far observed. The ratio between the measured and expected $$\\bar{v}$$ μ/v μ ratio is: R$$data\\atop{$$\\bar{v}$v}$/ R$$MC\\atop{$$\\bar{v}$v}$ = 0.93 $$+0.19\\atop{-0.15}$$ (stat.) ± 0.12 (sys.). This is consistent with v μ and $$\\bar{v}$$ μ having the same oscillation parameters. Bayesian methods were used to generate a log(L/E) value for each event. A maximum likelihood analysis is used to determine the allowed regions for the oscillation parameters Δm$$2\\atop{32}$$ and sin 22θ 23. The likelihood function uses the uncertainty in log(L/E) to bin events in order to extract as much information from the data as possible. This fit rejects the null oscillations hypothesis at the 98% confidence level. A fit to independent v μ and $$\\bar{v}$$ μ oscillation assuming maximal mixing for both is also performed. The projected sensitivity after an exposure of 25 ktyr is also discussed.« less

Comparison of diagnostic classification systems for delirium with new research criteria that incorporate the three core domains.

PubMed

Trzepacz, Paula T; Meagher, David J; Franco, José G

2016-05-01

Diagnostic classification systems do not incorporate phenomenological research findings about the three core symptom domains of delirium (Attentional/Cognitive, Circadian, Higher Level Thinking). We evaluated classification performances of novel Trzepacz, Meagher, and Franco research diagnostic criteria (TMF) that incorporate those domains and ICD-10, DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, and DSM-5. Primary data analysis of 641 patients with mixed neuropsychiatric profiles. Delirium (n=429) and nondelirium (n=212) reference standard groups were identified using cluster analysis of symptoms assessed using the Delirium Rating Scale-Revised-98. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), and likelihood ratios (LR+, LR-) are reported. TMF criteria had high sensitivity and specificity (87.4% and 89.2%), more balanced than DSM-III-R (100% and 31.6%), DSM-IV (97.7% and 74.1%), DSM-5 (97.7% and 72.6%), and ICD-10 (66.2% and 100%). PPV of DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, and DSM-5 were <90.0%, while PPV for ICD-10 and TMF were >90%. ICD-10 had the lowest NPV (59.4%). TMF had the highest LR+ (8.06) and DSM-III-R the lowest LR- (0.0). Overall, values for DSM-IV and DSM-5 were similar, whereas for ICD-10 and DSM-III-R were inverse of each other. In the pre-existing cognitive impairment/dementia subsample (n=128), TMF retained its highest LR+ though specificity (58.3%) became less well balanced with sensitivity (87.9%), which still exceeded that of DSM. TMF research diagnostic criteria performed well, with more balanced sensitivity and specificity and the highest likelihood ratio for delirium identification. Reflecting the three core domains of delirium, TMF criteria may have advantages in biological research where delineation of this syndrome is important. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Granger Test to Determine Causes of Harmful algal Blooms in TaiLake during the Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, W.; Wu, F.

2016-12-01

Eutrophication-driven harmful cyanobacteria blooms can threaten stability of lake ecosystems. A key to solving this problem is identifying the main cause of algal blooms so that appropriate remediation can be employed. A test of causality was used to analyze data for Meiling Bay in Tai Lake (Ch: Taihu) from 2000 to 2012. After filtration of data by use of the stationary test and the co-integration test, the Granger causality test and impulse response analysis were used to analyze potential bloom causes from physicochemical parameters to chlorophyll-a concentration. Results of stationary tests showed that logarithms of secchi disk depth (lnSD), suspended solids (lnSS), lnNH4-N/NOx-N and pH were determined to be stationary as a function of time and could not be considered to be causal for changes in biomass of phytoplankton observed during that period. Results of co-integration tests indicated existence of long-run co-integrating relationships among natural logarithms of chlorophyll-a (lnChl-a), water temperature (lnWT), total organic carbon (lnTOC) and ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus (lnN/P). The Granger causality test suggested that once thresholds for nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus had been reached, WT could increase the likelihood or severities of cyanobacteria blooms. An unidirectional Granger relationship from N/P to Chl-a was established, the result indicated that because concentrations of TN in Meiliang Bay had reached their thresholds, it no longer limited proliferation of cyanobacteria and TP should be controlled to reduce the likelihood of algae blooms. The impulse response analysis implied that lagging effects of water temperature and N/P ratio could influence the variation of Chla concentration at certain lag periods. The results can advance understanding of mechanisms on formation of harmful cyanobacteria blooms.

Delving into cornerstones of hypersensitivity to antineoplastic and biological agents: value of diagnostic tools prior to desensitization.

PubMed

Alvarez-Cuesta, E; Madrigal-Burgaleta, R; Angel-Pereira, D; Ureña-Tavera, A; Zamora-Verduga, M; Lopez-Gonzalez, P; Berges-Gimeno, M P

2015-07-01

Evidence regarding drug provocation test (DPT) with antineoplastic and biological agents is scarce. Our aim was to assess the usefulness of including DPT as a paramount gold standard diagnostic tool (prior to desensitization). Prospective, observational, longitudinal study with patients who, during a 3-year period, were referred to the Desensitization Program at Ramon y Cajal University Hospital. Patients underwent a structured diagnostic protocol by means of anamnesis, skin tests (ST), risk assessment, and DPT. Oxaliplatin-specific IgE was determined in oxaliplatin-reactive patients (who underwent DPT regardless of oxaliplatin-specific IgE results). Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were used to identify predictors of the final diagnosis among several variables. A total of 186 patients were assessed. A total of 104 (56%) patients underwent DPT. Sixty-four percent of all DPTs were negative (i.e., hypersensitivity was excluded). Sensitivity for oxaliplatin-specific IgE (0.35 UI/l cutoff point) was 34%, specificity 90.3%, negative predictive value 45.9%, positive predictive value 85%, negative likelihood ratio 0.7, and positive likelihood ratio 3.5. These are the first reported data based on more than 100 DPTs with antineoplastic and biological agents (paclitaxel, oxaliplatin, rituximab, infliximab, irinotecan, and other drugs). Implementation of DPT in diagnostic protocols helps exclude hypersensitivity (in 36% of all referred patients), and avoids unnecessary desensitizations in nonhypersensitive patients (30-56% of patients, depending on culprit-drug). Drug provocation test is vital to validate diagnostic tools; consequently, quality data are shown on oxaliplatin-specific IgE and oxaliplatin-ST in the largest series of oxaliplatin-reactive patients reported to date (74 oxaliplatin-reactive patients). Identifying phenotypes and predictors of a diagnosis of hypersensitivity may be helpful for tailored plans. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Complex Variation in Measures of General Intelligence and Cognitive Change

PubMed Central

Rowe, Suzanne J.; Rowlatt, Amy; Davies, Gail; Harris, Sarah E.; Porteous, David J.; Liewald, David C.; McNeill, Geraldine; Starr, John M.

2013-01-01

Combining information from multiple SNPs may capture a greater amount of genetic variation than from the sum of individual SNP effects and help identifying missing heritability. Regions may capture variation from multiple common variants of small effect, multiple rare variants or a combination of both. We describe regional heritability mapping of human cognition. Measures of crystallised (gc) and fluid intelligence (gf) in late adulthood (64–79 years) were available for 1806 individuals genotyped for 549,692 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The same individuals were tested at age 11, enabling us the rare opportunity to measure cognitive change across most of their lifespan. 547,750 SNPs ranked by position are divided into 10, 908 overlapping regions of 101 SNPs to estimate the genetic variance each region explains, an approach that resembles classical linkage methods. We also estimate the genetic variation explained by individual autosomes and by SNPs within genes. Empirical significance thresholds are estimated separately for each trait from whole genome scans of 500 permutated data sets. The 5% significance threshold for the likelihood ratio test of a single region ranged from 17–17.5 for the three traits. This is the equivalent to nominal significance under the expectation of a chi-squared distribution (between 1df and 0) of P<1.44×10−5. These thresholds indicate that the distribution of the likelihood ratio test from this type of variance component analysis should be estimated empirically. Furthermore, we show that estimates of variation explained by these regions can be grossly overestimated. After applying permutation thresholds, a region for gf on chromosome 5 spanning the PRRC1 gene is significant at a genome-wide 10% empirical threshold. Analysis of gene methylation on the temporal cortex provides support for the association of PRRC1 and fluid intelligence (P = 0.004), and provides a prime candidate gene for high throughput sequencing of these uniquely informative cohorts. PMID:24349040

Source localization of rhythmic ictal EEG activity: a study of diagnostic accuracy following STARD criteria.

PubMed

Beniczky, Sándor; Lantz, Göran; Rosenzweig, Ivana; Åkeson, Per; Pedersen, Birthe; Pinborg, Lars H; Ziebell, Morten; Jespersen, Bo; Fuglsang-Frederiksen, Anders

2013-10-01

Although precise identification of the seizure-onset zone is an essential element of presurgical evaluation, source localization of ictal electroencephalography (EEG) signals has received little attention. The aim of our study was to estimate the accuracy of source localization of rhythmic ictal EEG activity using a distributed source model. Source localization of rhythmic ictal scalp EEG activity was performed in 42 consecutive cases fulfilling inclusion criteria. The study was designed according to recommendations for studies on diagnostic accuracy (STARD). The initial ictal EEG signals were selected using a standardized method, based on frequency analysis and voltage distribution of the ictal activity. A distributed source model-local autoregressive average (LAURA)-was used for the source localization. Sensitivity, specificity, and measurement of agreement (kappa) were determined based on the reference standard-the consensus conclusion of the multidisciplinary epilepsy surgery team. Predictive values were calculated from the surgical outcome of the operated patients. To estimate the clinical value of the ictal source analysis, we compared the likelihood ratios of concordant and discordant results. Source localization was performed blinded to the clinical data, and before the surgical decision. Reference standard was available for 33 patients. The ictal source localization had a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 76%. The mean measurement of agreement (kappa) was 0.61, corresponding to substantial agreement (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.84). Twenty patients underwent resective surgery. The positive predictive value (PPV) for seizure freedom was 92% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 43%. The likelihood ratio was nine times higher for the concordant results, as compared with the discordant ones. Source localization of rhythmic ictal activity using a distributed source model (LAURA) for the ictal EEG signals selected with a standardized method is feasible in clinical practice and has a good diagnostic accuracy. Our findings encourage clinical neurophysiologists assessing ictal EEGs to include this method in their armamentarium. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2013 International League Against Epilepsy.

A concise evidence-based physical examination for diagnosis of acromioclavicular joint pathology: a systematic review.

PubMed

Krill, Michael K; Rosas, Samuel; Kwon, KiHyun; Dakkak, Andrew; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; McCormick, Frank

2018-02-01

The clinical examination of the shoulder joint is an undervalued diagnostic tool for evaluating acromioclavicular (AC) joint pathology. Applying evidence-based clinical tests enables providers to make an accurate diagnosis and minimize costly imaging procedures and potential delays in care. The purpose of this study was to create a decision tree analysis enabling simple and accurate diagnosis of AC joint pathology. A systematic review of the Medline, Ovid and Cochrane Review databases was performed to identify level one and two diagnostic studies evaluating clinical tests for AC joint pathology. Individual test characteristics were combined in series and in parallel to improve sensitivities and specificities. A secondary analysis utilized subjective pre-test probabilities to create a clinical decision tree algorithm with post-test probabilities. The optimal special test combination to screen and confirm AC joint pathology combined Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test, with a specificity of 95.8% when performed in series; whereas, Paxinos sign and Hawkins-Kennedy Test demonstrated a sensitivity of 93.7% when performed in parallel. Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test demonstrated the greatest positive likelihood ratio (2.71); whereas, Paxinos sign and Hawkins-Kennedy Test reported the lowest negative likelihood ratio (0.35). No combination of special tests performed in series or in parallel creates more than a small impact on post-test probabilities to screen or confirm AC joint pathology. Paxinos sign and O'Brien's Test is the only special test combination that has a small and sometimes important impact when used both in series and in parallel. Physical examination testing is not beneficial for diagnosis of AC joint pathology when pretest probability is unequivocal. In these instances, it is of benefit to proceed with procedural tests to evaluate AC joint pathology. Ultrasound-guided corticosteroid injections are diagnostic and therapeutic. An ultrasound-guided AC joint corticosteroid injection may be an appropriate new standard for treatment and surgical decision-making. II - Systematic Review.

Likelihood ratio and posterior odds in forensic genetics: Two sides of the same coin.

PubMed

Caliebe, Amke; Walsh, Susan; Liu, Fan; Kayser, Manfred; Krawczak, Michael

2017-05-01

It has become widely accepted in forensics that, owing to a lack of sensible priors, the evidential value of matching DNA profiles in trace donor identification or kinship analysis is most sensibly communicated in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR). This restraint does not abate the fact that the posterior odds (PO) would be the preferred basis for returning a verdict. A completely different situation holds for Forensic DNA Phenotyping (FDP), which is aimed at predicting externally visible characteristics (EVCs) of a trace donor from DNA left behind at the crime scene. FDP is intended to provide leads to the police investigation helping them to find unknown trace donors that are unidentifiable by DNA profiling. The statistical models underlying FDP typically yield posterior odds (PO) for an individual possessing a certain EVC. This apparent discrepancy has led to confusion as to when LR or PO is the appropriate outcome of forensic DNA analysis to be communicated to the investigating authorities. We thus set out to clarify the distinction between LR and PO in the context of forensic DNA profiling and FDP from a statistical point of view. In so doing, we also addressed the influence of population affiliation on LR and PO. In contrast to the well-known population dependency of the LR in DNA profiling, the PO as obtained in FDP may be widely population-independent. The actual degree of independence, however, is a matter of (i) how much of the causality of the respective EVC is captured by the genetic markers used for FDP and (ii) by the extent to which non-genetic such as environmental causal factors of the same EVC are distributed equally throughout populations. The fact that an LR should be communicated in cases of DNA profiling whereas the PO are suitable for FDP does not conflict with theory, but rather reflects the immanent differences between these two forensic applications of DNA information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of clinical tests in the diagnosis of anterior cruciate ligament injury: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Numerous clinical tests are used in the diagnosis of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury but their accuracy is unclear. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of clinical tests for the diagnosis of ACL injury. Methods Study Design: Systematic review. The review protocol was registered through PROSPERO (CRD42012002069). Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL) were searched up to 19th of June 2013 to identify diagnostic studies comparing the accuracy of clinical tests for ACL injury to an acceptable reference standard (arthroscopy, arthrotomy, or MRI). Risk of bias was appraised using the QUADAS-2 checklist. Index test accuracy was evaluated using a descriptive analysis of paired likelihood ratios and displayed as forest plots. Results A total of 285 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, from which 14 studies were included in this review. Included studies were deemed to be clinically and statistically heterogeneous, so a meta-analysis was not performed. Nine clinical tests from the history (popping sound at time of injury, giving way, effusion, pain, ability to continue activity) and four from physical examination (anterior draw test, Lachman’s test, prone Lachman’s test and pivot shift test) were investigated for diagnostic accuracy. Inspection of positive and negative likelihood ratios indicated that none of the individual tests provide useful diagnostic information in a clinical setting. Most studies were at risk of bias and reported imprecise estimates of diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion Despite being widely used and accepted in clinical practice, the results of individual history items or physical tests do not meaningfully change the probability of ACL injury. In contrast combinations of tests have higher diagnostic accuracy; however the most accurate combination of clinical tests remains an area for future research. Clinical relevance Clinicians should be aware of the limitations associated with the use of clinical tests for diagnosis of ACL injury. PMID:25187877

Accuracy of clinical tests in the diagnosis of anterior cruciate ligament injury: a systematic review.

PubMed

Swain, Michael S; Henschke, Nicholas; Kamper, Steven J; Downie, Aron S; Koes, Bart W; Maher, Chris G

2014-01-01

Numerous clinical tests are used in the diagnosis of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury but their accuracy is unclear. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of clinical tests for the diagnosis of ACL injury. Systematic review. The review protocol was registered through PROSPERO (CRD42012002069). Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL) were searched up to 19th of June 2013 to identify diagnostic studies comparing the accuracy of clinical tests for ACL injury to an acceptable reference standard (arthroscopy, arthrotomy, or MRI). Risk of bias was appraised using the QUADAS-2 checklist. Index test accuracy was evaluated using a descriptive analysis of paired likelihood ratios and displayed as forest plots. A total of 285 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, from which 14 studies were included in this review. Included studies were deemed to be clinically and statistically heterogeneous, so a meta-analysis was not performed. Nine clinical tests from the history (popping sound at time of injury, giving way, effusion, pain, ability to continue activity) and four from physical examination (anterior draw test, Lachman's test, prone Lachman's test and pivot shift test) were investigated for diagnostic accuracy. Inspection of positive and negative likelihood ratios indicated that none of the individual tests provide useful diagnostic information in a clinical setting. Most studies were at risk of bias and reported imprecise estimates of diagnostic accuracy. Despite being widely used and accepted in clinical practice, the results of individual history items or physical tests do not meaningfully change the probability of ACL injury. In contrast combinations of tests have higher diagnostic accuracy; however the most accurate combination of clinical tests remains an area for future research. Clinicians should be aware of the limitations associated with the use of clinical tests for diagnosis of ACL injury.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

Economic evaluation of first-line adjuvant chemotherapies for resectable gastric cancer patients in China.

PubMed

Tan, Chongqing; Peng, Liubao; Zeng, Xiaohui; Li, Jianhe; Wan, Xiaomin; Chen, Gannong; Yi, Lidan; Luo, Xia; Zhao, Ziying

2013-01-01

First-line postoperative adjuvant chemotherapies with S-1 and capecitabine and oxaliplatin (XELOX) were first recommended for resectable gastric cancer patients in the 2010 and 2011 Chinese NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology: Gastric Cancer; however, their economic impact in China is unknown. The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy with XELOX, with S-1 and no treatment after a gastrectomy with extended (D2) lymph-node dissection among patients with stage II-IIIB gastric cancer. A Markov model, based on data from two clinical phase III trials, was developed to analyse the cost-effectiveness of patients in the XELOX group, S-1 group and surgery only (SO) group. The costs were estimated from the perspective of Chinese healthcare system. The utilities were assumed on the basis of previously published reports. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated with a lifetime horizon. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. For the base case, XELOX had the lowest total cost ($44,568) and cost-effectiveness ratio ($7,360/QALY). The relative scenario analyses showed that SO was dominated by XELOX and the ICERs of S-1 was $58,843/QALY compared with XELOX. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential parameter was the utility of disease-free survival. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis predicted a 75.8% likelihood that the ICER for XELOX would be less than $13,527 compared with S-1. When ICER was more than $38,000, the likelihood of cost-effectiveness achieved by S-1 group was greater than 50%. Our results suggest that for patients in China with resectable disease, first-line adjuvant chemotherapy with XELOX after a D2 gastrectomy is a best option comparing with S-1 and SO in view of our current study. In addition, S-1 might be a better choice, especially with a higher value of willingness-to-pay threshold.

Evaluation of direct and indirect ethanol biomarkers using a likelihood ratio approach to identify chronic alcohol abusers for forensic purposes.

PubMed

Alladio, Eugenio; Martyna, Agnieszka; Salomone, Alberto; Pirro, Valentina; Vincenti, Marco; Zadora, Grzegorz

2017-02-01

The detection of direct ethanol metabolites, such as ethyl glucuronide (EtG) and fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEEs), in scalp hair is considered the optimal strategy to effectively recognize chronic alcohol misuses by means of specific cut-offs suggested by the Society of Hair Testing. However, several factors (e.g. hair treatments) may alter the correlation between alcohol intake and biomarkers concentrations, possibly introducing bias in the interpretative process and conclusions. 125 subjects with various drinking habits were subjected to blood and hair sampling to determine indirect (e.g. CDT) and direct alcohol biomarkers. The overall data were investigated using several multivariate statistical methods. A likelihood ratio (LR) approach was used for the first time to provide predictive models for the diagnosis of alcohol abuse, based on different combinations of direct and indirect alcohol biomarkers. LR strategies provide a more robust outcome than the plain comparison with cut-off values, where tiny changes in the analytical results can lead to dramatic divergence in the way they are interpreted. An LR model combining EtG and FAEEs hair concentrations proved to discriminate non-chronic from chronic consumers with ideal correct classification rates, whereas the contribution of indirect biomarkers proved to be negligible. Optimal results were observed using a novel approach that associates LR methods with multivariate statistics. In particular, the combination of LR approach with either Principal Component Analysis (PCA) or Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) proved successful in discriminating chronic from non-chronic alcohol drinkers. These LR models were subsequently tested on an independent dataset of 43 individuals, which confirmed their high efficiency. These models proved to be less prone to bias than EtG and FAEEs independently considered. In conclusion, LR models may represent an efficient strategy to sustain the diagnosis of chronic alcohol consumption and provide a suitable gradation to support the judgment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diffusion-weighted imaging determinants for acute ischemic stroke diagnosis in the emergency room.

PubMed

Brunser, Alejandro M; Cavada, Gabriel; Venturelli, Paula Muñoz; Olavarría, Verónica; Rojo, Alexis; Almeida, Juan; Díaz, Violeta; Hoppe, Arnold; Lavados, Pablo

2018-05-22

The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical-radiological determinants of diffusion-weighted image (DWI) abnormalities in patients with suspected acute ischemic stroke (AIS) seen at the emergency room (ER). During the study period, 882 consecutive patients were screened at Clínica Alemana de Santiago, Chile; 786 had AIS and 711 (90.4%) were included. DWI demonstrated 87.3% sensitivity and 99.0% specificity, with a positive likelihood ratio of 79 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.13 for the detection of AIS. In the univariate analysis, a positive DWI in AIS was associated with admission National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.1%), time from symptom onset to DWI (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), presence of a relevant intracranial artery occlusion (OR 3.18, 95% CI 1.75-5.76), posterior circulation ischemia (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28-0.7), brainstem location of the AIS (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.093-0.27), infratentorial location of AIS (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28-0.70), and lacunar (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.11-0.68) or undetermined stroke etiology (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.3-0.31). In multivariate analysis, only admission NIHSS score (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.13), time from symptom onset to DWI (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.13), brainstem location (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.051-0.37), and lacunar (OR: 0.4, 95% CI 0.21-0.78) or undetermined etiology (OR: 0.4, 95% CI 0.22-0.78) remained independently associated. DWI detects AIS accurately; the positivity of these evaluations in the ER is associated only with NIHSS on admission, time to DWI, brainstem location, and AIS etiology.

Maternal Blood Pressure Before Pregnancy and Sex of the Baby: A Prospective Preconception Cohort Study.

PubMed

Retnakaran, Ravi; Wen, Shi Wu; Tan, Hongzhuan; Zhou, Shujin; Ye, Chang; Shen, Minxue; Smith, Graeme N; Walker, Mark C

2017-04-01

Population-level sociologic studies have suggested that adverse societal conditions may affect fetal viability in a sex-specific manner and thereby modify the ratio of male vs. female babies. This concept suggests that there may exist certain physiologic features in a woman that relate to her likelihood of delivering a boy or girl. We thus established a preconception cohort to prospectively evaluate the relationship between maternal pregravid health and sex of the baby. In this analysis nested within an observational cohort study, 1,411 newly married women in Liuyang, China, underwent pregravid cardiometabolic characterization (including anthropometry and measurement of blood pressure, cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose) at median 26.3 weeks before a singleton pregnancy, delivering at 39.0 ± 1.3 weeks gestation. Systolic blood pressure before pregnancy was higher in women who delivered a boy than in those who had a girl (112.5 ± 11.9 vs. 109.6 ± 12.0 mm Hg, P < 0.0001). The prevalence of a male baby progressively increased across quintiles of pregravid systolic blood pressure (P < 0.0001). After covariate adjustment, mean adjusted pregravid systolic blood pressure was higher in mothers of boys vs. girls (106.0 vs. 103.3 mm Hg, P = 0.0015). On logistic regression analysis, pregravid systolic blood pressure emerged as the only significant predictor of having a male baby (adjusted odds ratio = 1.017 per mm Hg, 95% confidence interval = 1.007-1.028). The pregravid difference in blood pressure between mothers of boys and girls was not present during any trimester of pregnancy. Maternal blood pressure before pregnancy is a previously unrecognized factor that may be associated with the likelihood of delivering a boy or girl. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2017. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Efficacy and safety of sugammadex compared to neostigmine for reversal of neuromuscular blockade: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Carron, Michele; Zarantonello, Francesco; Tellaroli, Paola; Ori, Carlo

2016-12-01

Sugammadex has been introduced for reversal of rocuronium (or vecuronium)-induced neuromuscular blockade (NMB). Although its efficacy has been established, data are conflicting whether it is safer than neostigmine traditionally used for reversing NMB. Meta-analysis of data about effectiveness and safety of sugammadex compared to neostigmine for reversing NMB in adults was performed using the PRISMA methodology. University medical hospital. A comprehensive search was conducted using PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library electronic databases to identify English-language randomized controlled trials. Two reviewers independently selected the trials; extracted data on reversal times, incomplete reversals of NMB, and adverse events (AEs); and assessed the trials' methodological quality and evidence level. Only AEs that were related to study drug by a blinded safety assessor were considered for meta-analysis. A total of 1384 patients from 13 articles were included in this meta-analysis. Compared to neostigmine, sugammadex was faster in reversing NMB (P<.0001) and more likely to be associated with higher train-of-four ratio values at extubation (mean difference, 0.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14-0.22; P<.0001) and lower risk of postoperative residual curarization after extubation (odds ratio [OR], 0.05; 95% CI, 0.01-0.43; P=.0068). Compared to neostigmine, sugammadex was associated with a significantly lower likelihood of global AEs (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.34-0.66; P<.0001), respiratory AEs (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.14-0.95; P=.0386), cardiovascular AEs (OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.08-0.61; P=.0036), and postoperative weakness (OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.21-0.97; P=.0409). Sugammadex and neostigmine were associated with a similar likelihood of postoperative nausea and vomiting (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.70-2.15; P=.4719), pain (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.15-7.36; P=.9559), neurologic AEs (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 0.52-4.17; P=.4699), general AEs (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.47-1.21; P=.2448), and changes in laboratory tests' values (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.18-1.78; P=.3368). Results from this meta-analysis suggest that sugammadex is superior to neostigmine, as it reverses NMB faster and more reliably, with a lower risk of AEs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How the economic recession has changed the likelihood of reporting poor self-rated health in Spain.

PubMed

Arroyo, Elena; Renart, Gemma; Saez, Marc

2015-12-18

Between 2006 and 2011 self-rated health (SRH) (the subjective report of an individual's health status) actually improved in Spain despite its being in the grips of a serious economic recession. This study examines whether the likelihood of reporting poor health has changed because of the global financial crisis. It also attempts to estimate the differences between SRH and other self-perceived measures of health among groups before and during the current economic crisis in Spain. Cross-sectional population-based surveys were conducted in Spain (ENSE 2006 and ENSE 2011) and in Catalonia (ESCA 2006 and ESCA 2011) in 2006 and again in 2011. In this research work we have used random effects logistic models (dependent variable SRH 1 Poor, 0 Good) and exact matching and propensity score-matching. The results of the ENSE explanatory variables are the same in both 2006 and 2011. In other words, all diseases negatively affect SRH, whereas alcohol habits positively affect SRH and obesity is the only disease unrelated to SRH. ESCA explanatory variables' results show that in 2006 all diseases are significant and have large odds ratio (OR) and consequently those individuals suffering from any of these diseases are more likely to report poor health. In 2011 the same pattern follows with the exception of allergies, obesity, high cholesterol and hypertension, albeit they are not statistically significant. Drinking habits had a positive effect on SRH in 2006 and 2011, whereas smoking is considered as unrelated to SRH. The likelihood of reporting poor health in 2006 is added as a variable in with the logistic regression of 2011 and is not, in either the ENSE data or the ESCA data, significant. Furthermore, neither is it significant when controlling by age, gender, employment status or education. The results of our analysis show that the financial crisis did not alter the likelihood of reporting poor health in 2011. Therefore, there are no differences between our perceived health in either 2006 or in 2011.

Risk factors of patients with and without postoperative nausea (PON).

PubMed

Dienemann, Jacqueline; Hudgens, Amanda N; Martin, Dana; Jones, Holly; Hunt, Ronald; Blackwell, Richard; Norton, H James; Divine, George

2012-08-01

This purpose of this analysis was to study risk factors of postoperative nausea (PON) and their strength. Data were obtained during the screening phase of a controlled clinical trial of aromatherapy for PON. In a sample of 1151 postsurgical subjects, 301 (26.2%) reported PON. Significant risk factors identified in the order of odds ratios for nausea were female gender, gastrointestinal surgery, use of volatile anesthesia gases, history of PON, history of motion sickness, and use of opioids after surgery. Although still over 1.0, the risk factors of length of surgery over 1 hour and gynecologic surgery had the lowest odds ratios. Likelihood of nausea increased significantly with the number of significant risk factors (P<.0001). Administration of preventive antiemetic medication also increased with the number of significant risk factors (P<.0001). Among 301 subjects reporting nausea, 49 (16.28%) received preventive medication. Despite prevention efforts, PON remains a substantial side effect for many surgical patients. Copyright © 2012 American Society of PeriAnesthesia Nurses. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High Prevalence of Anal Human Papillomavirus-Associated Cancer Precursors in a Contemporary Cohort of Asymptomatic HIV-Infected Women.

PubMed

Heard, Isabelle; Etienney, Isabelle; Potard, Valérie; Poizot-Martin, Isabelle; Moore, Catherine; Lesage, Anne-Carole; Ressiot, Emmanuelle; Crenn-Hebert, Catherine; Fléjou, Jean-François; Cubie, Heather; Costagliola, Dominique; Darragh, Teresa M

2015-05-15

Although human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women are at high risk for anal cancer, few data have been published on prevalence of and risk factors for anal precancer and potential screening strategies in this risk group. A cross-sectional anal screening study was nested in a gynecological cohort of HIV-infected women. Anal swab specimens were collected for cytology and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. High-resolution anoscopy, with biopsy when indicated, was systematically performed. Among the 171 enrolled women, median age was 47.3 years and 98% were receiving combination antiretroviral therapy. Median CD4(+) count was 655 cells/µL and HIV load was <50 copies/mL in 89% of subjects. High-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia or worse (HG-AIN+) was diagnosed in 12.9% (n = 21). In multivariable analysis, a history of cervical squamous intraepithelial lesion (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-16.4) and anal HPV-16 infection (OR, 16.1; 95% CI, 5.4-48.3) was associated with increased risk of HG-AIN+. Abnormal anal cytology and HPV-16 infection performed best as a screening strategy for HG-AIN+ histology, with positive likelihood ratios of 3.4 (95% CI, 2.3-5.1) and 4.7 (95% CI, 2.5-8.7) and negative likelihood ratios of 0.2 (95% CI, .07-.8) and 0.4 (95% CI, .2-.9), respectively. HIV-infected women with a history of HPV-associated cervical disease are at increased risk for HG-AIN+ and should be offered anal cancer screening. Anal cytology and HPV-16 genotyping had the best screening performance. Anal cytology is easy to perform routinely; it may be the best candidate for screening for HG-AIN among HIV-infected women. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Is Diagnostic Performance of Quantitative 2D-Shear Wave Elastography Optimal for Clinical Classification of Benign and Malignant Thyroid Nodules?: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Nattabi, Haliimah A; Sharif, Norhafidzah M; Yahya, Noorazrul; Ahmad, Rozilawati; Mohamad, Mazlyfarina; Zaki, Faizah M; Yusoff, Ahmad N

2017-10-17

This study is a dedicated 2D-shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) review aimed at systematically eliciting up-to-date evidence of its clinical value in differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules. PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases were searched for studies assessing the diagnostic value of 2D-SWE for thyroid malignancy risk stratification published until December 2016. The retrieved titles and abstracts were screened and evaluated according to the predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Methodological quality of the studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy included in Systematic Review 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Extracted 2D-SWE diagnostic performance data were meta-analyzed to assess the summary sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. After stepwise review, 14 studies in which 2D-SWE was used to evaluate 2851 thyroid nodules (1092 malignant, 1759 benign) from 2139 patients were selected for the current study. Study quality on QUADAS-2 assessment was moderate to high. The summary sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 2D-SWE for differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules were 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-0.69), 0.78 (CI: 0.76-0.80), and 0.851 (Q* = 0.85), respectively. The pooled diagnostic odds ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and positive likelihood ratio were 12.73 (CI: 8.80-18.43), 0.31 (CI: 0.22-0.44), and 3.87 (CI: 2.83-5.29), respectively. Diagnostic performance of quantitative 2D-SWE for malignancy risk stratification of thyroid nodules is suboptimal with mediocre sensitivity and specificity, contrary to earlier reports of excellence. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.