Statistical inference based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator under double-truncation.

PubMed

Emura, Takeshi; Konno, Yoshihiko; Michimae, Hirofumi

2015-07-01

Doubly truncated data consist of samples whose observed values fall between the right- and left- truncation limits. With such samples, the distribution function of interest is estimated using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) that is obtained through a self-consistency algorithm. Owing to the complicated asymptotic distribution of the NPMLE, the bootstrap method has been suggested for statistical inference. This paper proposes a closed-form estimator for the asymptotic covariance function of the NPMLE, which is computationally attractive alternative to bootstrapping. Furthermore, we develop various statistical inference procedures, such as confidence interval, goodness-of-fit tests, and confidence bands to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed covariance estimator. Simulations are performed to compare the proposed method with both the bootstrap and jackknife methods. The methods are illustrated using the childhood cancer dataset.

Factors Associated With Breastfeeding Duration Among Connecticut Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Participants

PubMed Central

Haughton, Jannett; Gregorio, David; Pérez-Escamilla, Rafael

2011-01-01

This retrospective study aimed to identify factors associated with breastfeeding duration among women enrolled in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) of Hartford, Connecticut. The authors included mothers whose children were younger than 5 years and had stopped breastfeeding (N = 155). Women who had planned their pregnancies were twice as likely as those who did not plan them to breastfeed for more than 6 months (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–4.64). One additional year of maternal age was associated with a 9% increase on the likelihood of breastfeeding for more than 6 months (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.17). Time in the United States was inversely associated with the likelihood of breastfeeding for more than 6 months (odds ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.92–0.99). Return to work, sore nipples, lack of access to breast pumps, and free formula provided by WIC were identified as breastfeeding barriers. Findings can help WIC improve its breastfeeding promotion efforts. PMID:20689103

Determinants of preterm birth rates in Canada from 1981 through 1983 and from 1992 through 1994.

PubMed

Joseph, K S; Kramer, M S; Marcoux, S; Ohlsson, A; Wen, S W; Allen, A; Platt, R

1998-11-12

The rates of preterm birth have increased in many countries, including Canada, over the past 20 years. However, the factors underlying the increase are poorly understood. We used data from the Statistics Canada live-birth and stillbirth data bases to determine the effects of changes in the frequency of multiple births, registration of births occurring very early in gestation, patterns of obstetrical intervention, and use of ultrasonographic dating of gestational age on the rates of preterm birth in Canada from 1981 through 1983 and from 1992 through 1994. All births in 9 of the 12 provinces and territories of Canada were included. Logistic-regression analysis and Poisson regression analysis were used to estimate changes between the two three-year periods, after adjustment for the above-mentioned determinants of the likelihood of preterm births. Preterm births increased from 6.3 percent of live births in 1981 through 1983 to 6.8 percent in 1992 through 1994, a relative increase of 9 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 7 to 10 percent). Among singleton births, preterm births increased by 5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 3 to 6 percent). Multiple births increased from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent of all live births; the rates of preterm birth among live births resulting from multiple gestations increased by 25 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 21 to 28 percent). Adjustment for the determinants of the likelihood of preterm birth reduced the increase in the rate of preterm birth to 3 percent among all live births and 1 percent among singleton births. The recent increase in preterm births in Canada is largely attributable to changes in the frequency of multiple births, obstetrical intervention, and the use of ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age.

Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation: bootstrap and simulation methods

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommended annual occupational dose limit is 20 mSv. Cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation in 1945 was analysed previously, using a latency model with non-linear dose response. Questions were raised regarding statistical inference with this model. Methods Cancers with over 100 deaths in the 0 - 20 mSv subcohort of the 1950-1990 Life Span Study are analysed with Poisson regression models incorporating latency, allowing linear and non-linear dose response. Bootstrap percentile and Bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) methods and simulation of the Likelihood Ratio Test lead to Confidence Intervals for Excess Relative Risk (ERR) and tests against the linear model. Results The linear model shows significant large, positive values of ERR for liver and urinary cancers at latencies from 37 - 43 years. Dose response below 20 mSv is strongly non-linear at the optimal latencies for the stomach (11.89 years), liver (36.9), lung (13.6), leukaemia (23.66), and pancreas (11.86) and across broad latency ranges. Confidence Intervals for ERR are comparable using Bootstrap and Likelihood Ratio Test methods and BCa 95% Confidence Intervals are strictly positive across latency ranges for all 5 cancers. Similar risk estimates for 10 mSv (lagged dose) are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv data for the stomach, liver, lung and leukaemia. Dose response for the latter 3 cancers is significantly non-linear in the 5 - 500 mSv range. Conclusion Liver and urinary cancer mortality risk is significantly raised using a latency model with linear dose response. A non-linear model is strongly superior for the stomach, liver, lung, pancreas and leukaemia. Bootstrap and Likelihood-based confidence intervals are broadly comparable and ERR is strictly positive by bootstrap methods for all 5 cancers. Except for the pancreas, similar estimates of latency and risk from 10 mSv are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv subcohorts. Large and significant cancer risks for Japanese survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation from the atomic bombs in 1945 cast doubt on the ICRP recommended annual occupational dose limit. PMID:20003238

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

PubMed Central

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2016-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful because it can be used to test specific questions of central interest in studies with factorial designs. It weighs several means and combines them into one or two sets that can be tested with t tests. The effect size produced by a contrast analysis is simply the difference between means. The CI of the effect size informs directly about direction, hypothesis exclusion, and the relevance of the effects of interest. However, any interpretation in terms of precision or likelihood requires the use of likelihood intervals or credible intervals (Bayesian). These various intervals and even a Bayesian t test can be obtained easily with free software. This tutorial reviews these methods to guide researchers in answering the following questions: When I analyze mean differences in factorial designs, where can I find the effects of central interest, and what can I learn about their effect sizes? PMID:29805179

Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review to Assess the Role of Soluble FMS-Like Tyrosine Kinase-1 and Placenta Growth Factor Ratio in Prediction of Preeclampsia: The SaPPPhirE Study.

PubMed

Agrawal, Swati; Cerdeira, Ana Sofia; Redman, Christopher; Vatish, Manu

2018-02-01

Preeclampsia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Numerous candidate biomarkers have been proposed for diagnosis and prediction of preeclampsia. Measurement of maternal circulating angiogenesis biomarker as the ratio of sFlt-1 (soluble FMS-like tyrosine kinase-1; an antiangiogenic factor)/PlGF (placental growth factor; an angiogenic factor) reflects the antiangiogenic balance that characterizes incipient or overt preeclampsia. The ratio increases before the onset of the disease and thus may help in predicting preeclampsia. We conducted a meta-analysis to explore the predictive accuracy of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio in preeclampsia. We included 15 studies with 534 cases with preeclampsia and 19 587 controls. The ratio has a pooled sensitivity of 80% (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.88), specificity of 92% (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.96), positive likelihood ratio of 10.5 (95% confidence interval, 6.2-18.0), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.22 (95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.35) in predicting preeclampsia in both high- and low-risk patients. Most of the studies have not made a distinction between early- and late-onset disease, and therefore, the analysis for it could not be done. It can prove to be a valuable screening tool for preeclampsia and may also help in decision-making, treatment stratification, and better resource allocation. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Simulation-based Bayesian inference for latent traits of item response models: Introduction to the ltbayes package for R.

PubMed

Johnson, Timothy R; Kuhn, Kristine M

2015-12-01

This paper introduces the ltbayes package for R. This package includes a suite of functions for investigating the posterior distribution of latent traits of item response models. These include functions for simulating realizations from the posterior distribution, profiling the posterior density or likelihood function, calculation of posterior modes or means, Fisher information functions and observed information, and profile likelihood confidence intervals. Inferences can be based on individual response patterns or sets of response patterns such as sum scores. Functions are included for several common binary and polytomous item response models, but the package can also be used with user-specified models. This paper introduces some background and motivation for the package, and includes several detailed examples of its use.

The Concordance of Parent and Child Immunization.

PubMed

Robison, Steve G; Osborn, Andrew W

2017-05-01

A substantial body of work has related survey-based parental vaccine hesitancy to noncompliant childhood immunization. However little attention has been paid to the connection between parents' own immunization behavior and the immunizations their children receive. Using the Oregon ALERT Immunization Information System, we identified adult caregiver-child pairs for children between 9 months and 17 years of age. The likelihood of adult-child concordance of influenza immunization per influenza season from 2010-2011 through 2014-2015 was assessed. The utility of adult immunization as a predictor was also assessed for other, noninfluenza recommended immunizations for children and adolescents. A total of 450 687 matched adult caregiver-child pairs were included in the study. The children of immunizing adults were 2.77 times more likely to also be immunized for seasonal influenza across all seasons (95% confidence interval, 2.74-2.79), with similar results applying within each season. Adult immunization status was also significantly associated with the likelihood of children and adolescents getting other noninfluenza immunizations, such as the human papillomavirus vaccine (HPV). When adults improved their own behavior from nonimmunizing to immunizing across influenza seasons, their children if not immunized in the previous season were 5.44 times (95% confidence interval, 5.35-5.53) more likely to become immunized for influenza. Children's likelihood of following immunization recommendations is associated with the immunization behavior of their parents. Encouraging parental immunization is a potential tool for increasing children's immunization rates. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Statistical inference for extended or shortened phase II studies based on Simon's two-stage designs.

PubMed

Zhao, Junjun; Yu, Menggang; Feng, Xi-Ping

2015-06-07

Simon's two-stage designs are popular choices for conducting phase II clinical trials, especially in the oncology trials to reduce the number of patients placed on ineffective experimental therapies. Recently Koyama and Chen (2008) discussed how to conduct proper inference for such studies because they found that inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan used. In particular, they proposed an inference method for studies when the actual second stage sample sizes differ from planned ones. We consider an alternative inference method based on likelihood ratio. In particular, we order permissible sample paths under Simon's two-stage designs using their corresponding conditional likelihood. In this way, we can calculate p-values using the common definition: the probability of obtaining a test statistic value at least as extreme as that observed under the null hypothesis. In addition to providing inference for a couple of scenarios where Koyama and Chen's method can be difficult to apply, the resulting estimate based on our method appears to have certain advantage in terms of inference properties in many numerical simulations. It generally led to smaller biases and narrower confidence intervals while maintaining similar coverages. We also illustrated the two methods in a real data setting. Inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan. Reported P-values, point estimates and confidence intervals for the response rate are not usually adjusted for the design's adaptiveness. Proper statistical inference procedures should be used.

An evaluation of inferential procedures for adaptive clinical trial designs with pre-specified rules for modifying the sample size.

PubMed

Levin, Gregory P; Emerson, Sarah C; Emerson, Scott S

2014-09-01

Many papers have introduced adaptive clinical trial methods that allow modifications to the sample size based on interim estimates of treatment effect. There has been extensive commentary on type I error control and efficiency considerations, but little research on estimation after an adaptive hypothesis test. We evaluate the reliability and precision of different inferential procedures in the presence of an adaptive design with pre-specified rules for modifying the sampling plan. We extend group sequential orderings of the outcome space based on the stage at stopping, likelihood ratio statistic, and sample mean to the adaptive setting in order to compute median-unbiased point estimates, exact confidence intervals, and P-values uniformly distributed under the null hypothesis. The likelihood ratio ordering is found to average shorter confidence intervals and produce higher probabilities of P-values below important thresholds than alternative approaches. The bias adjusted mean demonstrates the lowest mean squared error among candidate point estimates. A conditional error-based approach in the literature has the benefit of being the only method that accommodates unplanned adaptations. We compare the performance of this and other methods in order to quantify the cost of failing to plan ahead in settings where adaptations could realistically be pre-specified at the design stage. We find the cost to be meaningful for all designs and treatment effects considered, and to be substantial for designs frequently proposed in the literature. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Usual Physical Activity and Hip Fracture in Older Men: An Application of Semiparametric Methods to Observational Data

PubMed Central

Mackey, Dawn C.; Hubbard, Alan E.; Cawthon, Peggy M.; Cauley, Jane A.; Cummings, Steven R.; Tager, Ira B.

2011-01-01

Few studies have examined the relation between usual physical activity level and rate of hip fracture in older men or applied semiparametric methods from the causal inference literature that estimate associations without assuming a particular parametric model. Using the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly, the authors measured usual physical activity level at baseline (2000–2002) in 5,682 US men ≥65 years of age who were enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study. Physical activity levels were classified as low (bottom quartile of Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly score), moderate (middle quartiles), or high (top quartile). Hip fractures were confirmed by central review. Marginal associations between physical activity and hip fracture were estimated with 3 estimation methods: inverse probability-of-treatment weighting, G-computation, and doubly robust targeted maximum likelihood estimation. During 6.5 years of follow-up, 95 men (1.7%) experienced a hip fracture. The unadjusted risk of hip fracture was lower in men with a high physical activity level versus those with a low physical activity level (relative risk = 0.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.28, 0.92). In semiparametric analyses that controlled confounding, hip fracture risk was not lower with moderate (e.g., targeted maximum likelihood estimation relative risk = 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 1.44) or high (e.g., targeted maximum likelihood estimation relative risk = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.53, 2.03) physical activity relative to low. This study does not support a protective effect of usual physical activity on hip fracture in older men. PMID:21303805

Accounting for dropout bias using mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Mallinckrodt, C H; Clark, W S; David, S R

2001-01-01

Treatment effects are often evaluated by comparing change over time in outcome measures. However, valid analyses of longitudinal data can be problematic when subjects discontinue (dropout) prior to completing the study. This study assessed the merits of likelihood-based repeated measures analyses (MMRM) compared with fixed-effects analysis of variance where missing values were imputed using the last observation carried forward approach (LOCF) in accounting for dropout bias. Comparisons were made in simulated data and in data from a randomized clinical trial. Subject dropout was introduced in the simulated data to generate ignorable and nonignorable missingness. Estimates of treatment group differences in mean change from baseline to endpoint from MMRM were, on average, markedly closer to the true value than estimates from LOCF in every scenario simulated. Standard errors and confidence intervals from MMRM accurately reflected the uncertainty of the estimates, whereas standard errors and confidence intervals from LOCF underestimated uncertainty.

Diagnostic capability of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography for glaucoma.

PubMed

Wu, Huijuan; de Boer, Johannes F; Chen, Teresa C

2012-05-01

To determine the diagnostic capability of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in glaucoma patients with visual field defects. Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants were recruited from a university hospital clinic. One eye of 85 normal subjects and 61 glaucoma patients with average visual field mean deviation of -9.61 ± 8.76 dB was selected randomly for the study. A subgroup of the glaucoma patients with early visual field defects was calculated separately. Spectralis optical coherence tomography (Heidelberg Engineering, Inc) circular scans were performed to obtain peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thicknesses. The RNFL diagnostic parameters based on the normative database were used alone or in combination for identifying glaucomatous RNFL thinning. To evaluate diagnostic performance, calculations included areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Overall RNFL thickness had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values: 0.952 for all patients and 0.895 for the early glaucoma subgroup. For all patients, the highest sensitivity (98.4%; 95% confidence interval, 96.3% to 100%) was achieved by using 2 criteria: ≥ 1 RNFL sectors being abnormal at the < 5% level and overall classification of borderline or outside normal limits, with specificities of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 84.0% to 94.0%) and 87.1% (95% confidence interval, 81.6% to 92.5%), respectively, for these 2 criteria. Statistical parameters for evaluating the diagnostic performance of the Spectralis spectral-domain optical coherence tomography were good for early perimetric glaucoma and were excellent for moderately advanced perimetric glaucoma. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new framework of statistical inferences based on the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in an incomplete contingency table.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Li, Hui-Qiong

2017-08-01

Some existing confidence interval methods and hypothesis testing methods in the analysis of a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins entirely depend on an underlying assumption that the sampling distribution of the observed counts is a product of independent multinomial/binomial distributions for complete and incomplete counts. However, it can be shown that this independency assumption is incorrect and can result in unreliable conclusions because of the under-estimation of the uncertainty. Therefore, the first objective of this paper is to derive the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins. The second objective is to provide a new framework for analyzing incomplete contingency tables based on the derived joint sampling distribution of the observed counts by developing a Fisher scoring algorithm to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest, the bootstrap confidence interval methods, and the bootstrap testing hypothesis methods. We compare the differences between the valid sampling distribution and the sampling distribution under the independency assumption. Simulation studies showed that average/expected confidence-interval widths of parameters based on the sampling distribution under the independency assumption are shorter than those based on the new sampling distribution, yielding unrealistic results. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the application of the new sampling distribution for incomplete contingency tables and the analysis results again confirm the conclusions obtained from the simulation studies.

Planck intermediate results. XVI. Profile likelihoods for cosmological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartlett, J. G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J. R.; Bouchet, F. R.; Burigana, C.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Christensen, P. R.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Couchot, F.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F. K.; Harrison, D. L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leonardi, R.; Liddle, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski∗, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G. W.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rouillé d'Orfeuil, B.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Spencer, L. D.; Spinelli, M.; Starck, J.-L.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; White, M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

2014-06-01

We explore the 2013 Planck likelihood function with a high-precision multi-dimensional minimizer (Minuit). This allows a refinement of the ΛCDM best-fit solution with respect to previously-released results, and the construction of frequentist confidence intervals using profile likelihoods. The agreement with the cosmological results from the Bayesian framework is excellent, demonstrating the robustness of the Planck results to the statistical methodology. We investigate the inclusion of neutrino masses, where more significant differences may appear due to the non-Gaussian nature of the posterior mass distribution. By applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription, we again obtain results very similar to those of the Bayesian methodology. However, the profile-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) combination (Planck+WP+highL) reveals a minimum well within the unphysical negative-mass region. We show that inclusion of the Planck CMB-lensing information regularizes this issue, and provide a robust frequentist upper limit ∑ mν ≤ 0.26 eV (95% confidence) from the CMB+lensing+BAO data combination.

Experimental congruence of interval scale production from paired comparisons and ranking for image evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handley, John C.; Babcock, Jason S.; Pelz, Jeff B.

2003-12-01

Image evaluation tasks are often conducted using paired comparisons or ranking. To elicit interval scales, both methods rely on Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment in which objects closer in psychological space are more often confused in preference comparisons by a putative discriminal random process. It is often debated whether paired comparisons and ranking yield the same interval scales. An experiment was conducted to assess scale production using paired comparisons and ranking. For this experiment a Pioneer Plasma Display and Apple Cinema Display were used for stimulus presentation. Observers performed rank order and paired comparisons tasks on both displays. For each of five scenes, six images were created by manipulating attributes such as lightness, chroma, and hue using six different settings. The intention was to simulate the variability from a set of digital cameras or scanners. Nineteen subjects, (5 females, 14 males) ranging from 19-51 years of age participated in this experiment. Using a paired comparison model and a ranking model, scales were estimated for each display and image combination yielding ten scale pairs, ostensibly measuring the same psychological scale. The Bradley-Terry model was used for the paired comparisons data and the Bradley-Terry-Mallows model was used for the ranking data. Each model was fit using maximum likelihood estimation and assessed using likelihood ratio tests. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were also constructed using likelihood ratios. Model fits for paired comparisons were satisfactory for all scales except those from two image/display pairs; the ranking model fit uniformly well on all data sets. Arguing from overlapping confidence intervals, we conclude that paired comparisons and ranking produce no conflicting decisions regarding ultimate ordering of treatment preferences, but paired comparisons yield greater precision at the expense of lack-of-fit.

Predictors of successful closure of patent ductus arteriosus with indomethacin.

PubMed

Ahamed, M F; Verma, P; Lee, S; Vega, M; Wang, D; Kim, M; Fuloria, M

2015-09-01

To determine whether platelet counts can predict the likelihood of successful closure of patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) with indomethacin. This was a retrospective cohort study of infants <32 weeks' gestational age (GA) and birth weight <1500 g with PDA. Clinical characteristics between infants who achieved ductal closure with indomethacin and those who failed were compared. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of successful ductal closure. In infants with hemodynamically significant PDA, older GA (odds ratio=1.54; 95% confidence interval: 1.12 to 2.13), male gender (odds ratio=3.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 8.49) and higher platelet count (odds ratio=1.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 2.17) prior to indomethacin treatment were associated with successful ductal closure with indomethacin. Older GA, male gender and higher platelet count at time of treatment of hemodynamically significant PDA are predictors of successful ductal closure with indomethacin.

Statistical inferences with jointly type-II censored samples from two Pareto distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abu-Zinadah, Hanaa H.

2017-08-01

In the several fields of industries the product comes from more than one production line, which is required to work the comparative life tests. This problem requires sampling of the different production lines, then the joint censoring scheme is appeared. In this article we consider the life time Pareto distribution with jointly type-II censoring scheme. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the corresponding approximate confidence intervals as well as the bootstrap confidence intervals of the model parameters are obtained. Also Bayesian point and credible intervals of the model parameters are presented. The life time data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Monte Carlo results from simulation studies are presented to assess the performance of our proposed method.

Nasal Airway Microbiota Profile and Severe Bronchiolitis in Infants: A Case-control Study.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Kohei; Linnemann, Rachel W; Mansbach, Jonathan M; Ajami, Nadim J; Espinola, Janice A; Petrosino, Joseph F; Piedra, Pedro A; Stevenson, Michelle D; Sullivan, Ashley F; Thompson, Amy D; Camargo, Carlos A

2017-11-01

Little is known about the relationship of airway microbiota with bronchiolitis in infants. We aimed to identify nasal airway microbiota profiles and to determine their association with the likelihood of bronchiolitis in infants. A case-control study was conducted. As a part of a multicenter prospective study, we collected nasal airway samples from 40 infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis. We concurrently enrolled 110 age-matched healthy controls. By applying 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing and an unbiased clustering approach to these 150 nasal samples, we identified microbiota profiles and determined the association of microbiota profiles with likelihood of bronchiolitis. Overall, the median age was 3 months and 56% were male. Unbiased clustering of airway microbiota identified 4 distinct profiles: Moraxella-dominant profile (37%), Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profile (27%), Staphylococcus-dominant profile (15%) and mixed profile (20%). Proportion of bronchiolitis was lowest in infants with Moraxella-dominant profile (14%) and highest in those with Staphylococcus-dominant profile (57%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 7.80 (95% confidence interval, 2.64-24.9; P < 0.001). In the multivariable model, the association between Staphylococcus-dominant profile and greater likelihood of bronchiolitis persisted (odds ratio for comparison with Moraxella-dominant profile, 5.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-22.9; P = 0.03). By contrast, Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profile group had low proportion of infants with bronchiolitis (17%); the likelihood of bronchiolitis in this group did not significantly differ from those with Moraxella-dominant profile in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses. In this case-control study, we identified 4 distinct nasal airway microbiota profiles in infants. Moraxella-dominant and Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profiles were associated with low likelihood of bronchiolitis, while Staphylococcus-dominant profile was associated with high likelihood of bronchiolitis.

Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

PubMed Central

Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

2006-01-01

Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

Estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests with random lot-to-lot variation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Magari, Robert T

2002-03-01

The effect of different lot-to-lot variability levels on the prediction of stability are studied based on two statistical models for estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests. Lot-to-lot variability is considered as random in both models, and is attributed to two sources-variability at time zero, and variability of degradation rate. Real-time stability tests are modeled as a function of time while accelerated stability tests as a function of time and temperatures. Several data sets were simulated, and a maximum likelihood approach was used for estimation. The 95% confidence intervals for the degradation rate depend on the amount of lot-to-lot variability. When lot-to-lot degradation rate variability is relatively large (CV > or = 8%) the estimated confidence intervals do not represent the trend for individual lots. In such cases it is recommended to analyze each lot individually. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 91: 893-899, 2002

Knowledge and risk perception of late effects among childhood cancer survivors and parents before and after visiting a childhood cancer survivor clinic.

PubMed

Cherven, Brooke; Mertens, Ann; Meacham, Lillian R; Williamson, Rebecca; Boring, Cathy; Wasilewski-Masker, Karen

2014-01-01

Survivors of childhood cancer are at risk for a variety of treatment-related late effects and require lifelong individualized surveillance for early detection of late effects. This study assessed knowledge and perceptions of late effects risk before and after a survivor clinic visit. Young adult survivors (≥ 16 years) and parents of child survivors (< 16 years) were recruited prior to initial visit to a cancer survivor program. Sixty-five participants completed a baseline survey and 50 completed both a baseline and follow-up survey. Participants were found to have a low perceived likelihood of developing a late effect of cancer therapy and many incorrect perceptions of risk for individual late effects. Low knowledge before clinic (odds ratio = 9.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-92.8; P = .02) and low perceived likelihood of developing a late effect (odds ratio = 18.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.7-242.3; P = .01) were found to predict low knowledge of late effect risk at follow-up. This suggests that perceived likelihood of developing a late effect is an important factor in the individuals' ability to learn about their risk and should be addressed before initiation of education. © 2014 by Association of Pediatric Hematology/Oncology Nurses.

Likelihood of treatment in a coronary care unit for a first-time myocardial infarction in relation to sex, country of birth and socioeconomic position in Sweden.

PubMed

Yang, Dong; James, Stefan; de Faire, Ulf; Alfredsson, Lars; Jernberg, Tomas; Moradi, Tahereh

2013-01-01

To examine the relationship between sex, country of birth, level of education as an indicator of socioeconomic position, and the likelihood of treatment in a coronary care unit (CCU) for a first-time myocardial infarction. Nationwide register based study. Sweden. 199 906 patients (114 387 men and 85,519 women) of all ages who were admitted to hospital for first-time myocardial infarction between 2001 and 2009. Admission to a coronary care unit due to myocardial infarction. Despite the observed increasing access to coronary care units over time, the proportion of women treated in a coronary care unit was 13% less than for men. As compared with men, the multivariable adjusted odds ratio among women was 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.82). This lower proportion of women treated in a CCU varied by age and year of diagnosis and country of birth. Overall, there was no evidence of a difference in likelihood of treatment in a coronary care unit between Sweden-born and foreign-born patients. As compared with patients with high education, the adjusted odds ratio among patients with a low level of education was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.96). Foreign-born and Sweden-born first-time myocardial infarction patients had equal opportunity of being treated in a coronary care unit in Sweden; this is in contrast to the situation in many other countries with large immigrant populations. However, the apparent lower rate of coronary care unit admission after first-time myocardial infarction among women and patients with low socioeconomic position warrants further investigation.

Relationship of Antibiotic Treatment to Recovery after Acute FEV1 Decline in Children with Cystic Fibrosis.

PubMed

Morgan, Wayne J; Wagener, Jeffrey S; Pasta, David J; Millar, Stefanie J; VanDevanter, Donald R; Konstan, Michael W

2017-06-01

Children with cystic fibrosis often experience acute declines in lung function. We previously showed that such declines are not always treated with antibiotics, but we did not assess whether treatment improves the likelihood of recovery. To determine whether new antibiotic treatment was associated with recovery from acute FEV 1 decline. We studied episodes of FEV 1 decline (≥10% from baseline) in the Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis. Treatments were hospitalization, home intravenous antibiotic, new inhaled oral quinolone, or other oral antibiotic. We used logistic regression to evaluate whether treatment was associated with recovery to baseline or near baseline. Logistic regression of 9,875 patients showed that new antibiotic treatment was associated with an increased likelihood of recovery to 90% of baseline (P < 0.001), especially for hospitalization compared with no new antibiotic (odds ratio [OR], 2.79; 95% confidence interval, 2.41-3.23). All four outpatient treatments were associated with greater likelihood of recovery compared with no treatment (OR, 1.27-1.64). Inpatient treatment was better than outpatient treatment (OR, 1.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.68-2.23). Treatment-type ORs were similar across recovery criteria and levels of baseline lung function. New antibiotic therapy, and especially inpatient treatment, is associated with greater likelihood of recovery after acute decline in FEV 1 . Benefits extend across all disease stages and are especially important in patients with high lung function, who are at greatest risk for FEV 1 decline.

Combining evidence using likelihood ratios in writer verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srihari, Sargur; Kovalenko, Dimitry; Tang, Yi; Ball, Gregory

2013-01-01

Forensic identification is the task of determining whether or not observed evidence arose from a known source. It involves determining a likelihood ratio (LR) - the ratio of the joint probability of the evidence and source under the identification hypothesis (that the evidence came from the source) and under the exclusion hypothesis (that the evidence did not arise from the source). In LR- based decision methods, particularly handwriting comparison, a variable number of input evidences is used. A decision based on many pieces of evidence can result in nearly the same LR as one based on few pieces of evidence. We consider methods for distinguishing between such situations. One of these is to provide confidence intervals together with the decisions and another is to combine the inputs using weights. We propose a new method that generalizes the Bayesian approach and uses an explicitly defined discount function. Empirical evaluation with several data sets including synthetically generated ones and handwriting comparison shows greater flexibility of the proposed method.

Relationships between dog ownership and physical activity in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Garcia, David O; Wertheim, Betsy C; Manson, JoAnn E; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Volpe, Stella L; Howard, Barbara V; Stefanick, Marcia L; Thomson, Cynthia A

2015-01-01

Positive associations between dog ownership and physical activity in older adults have been previously reported. The objective of this study was to examine cross-sectional associations between dog ownership and physical activity measures in a well-characterized, diverse sample of postmenopausal women. Analyses included 36,984 dog owners (mean age: 61.5years), and 115,645 non-dog owners (mean age: 63.9years) enrolled in a clinical trial or the observational study of the Women's Health Initiative between 1993 and 1998. Logistic regression models were used to test for associations between dog ownership and physical activity, adjusted for potential confounders. Owning a dog was associated with a higher likelihood of walking ≥150min/wk (Odds Ratio, 1.14; 95% Confidence Interval, 1.10-1.17) and a lower likelihood of being sedentary ≥8h/day (Odds Ratio, 0.86; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.83-0.89) as compared to not owning a dog. However, dog owners were less likely to meet ≥7.5MET-h/wk of total physical activity as compared to non-dog owners (Odds Ratio, 1.03; 95% Confidence Interval, 1.00-1.07). Dog ownership is associated with increased physical activity in older women, particularly among women living alone. Health promotion efforts aimed at older adults should highlight the benefits of regular dog walking for both dog owners and non-dog owners. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maternal depressive symptoms and infant health practices among low-income women.

PubMed

Chung, Esther K; McCollum, Kelly F; Elo, Irma T; Lee, Helen J; Culhane, Jennifer F

2004-06-01

To determine the relationships between maternal depressive symptoms and the use of infant health services, parenting practices, and injury-prevention measures. A prospective, community-based survey of women attending Philadelphia public health centers between February 2000 and November 2001 was conducted. Women were surveyed at 3 time points before and after parturition. Depressive symptoms were determined with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale at each time point. We studied 6 outcomes, clustered into 3 categories: 1) infant health service use (adequate well-child care and ever being hospitalized); 2) parenting practices (breastfeeding for > or =1 month and use of corporal punishment); and 3) injury-prevention measures (having a smoke alarm and using the back sleep position). The sample consisted of 774 largely single (74%), uninsured (63%), African American (65%) women, with a mean age of 24 +/- 6 years and a mean annual income of 8063 dollars. Forty-eight percent of women had depressive symptoms at 1 or 2 time points (ever symptoms) and 12% had depressive symptoms at all points (persistent symptoms). Compared with women who never had depressive symptoms (without symptoms), women with persistent symptoms were nearly 3 times as likely to have their child ever hospitalized (adjusted odds ratio: 2.89; 95% confidence interval: 1.61-5.07) and twice as likely to use corporal punishment (adjusted odds ratio: 1.90; 95% confidence interval: 1.08-3.34). Mothers with persistent depressive symptoms were nearly three-quarters less likely to have smoke alarms in their homes (adjusted odds ratio: 0.28; 95% confidence interval: 0.11-0.70) and one-half as likely to use the back sleep position (adjusted odds ratio: 0.56; 95% confidence interval: 0.35-0.91), compared with women without symptoms. There was no association between maternal depressive symptoms and infant receipt of well-child care or the likelihood of breastfeeding for > or =1 month. Maternal depressive symptoms persisting from the prepartum to postpartum periods were associated with increased risks of infant hospitalization and use of corporal punishment and with lower likelihood of having a smoke alarm and using the back sleep position. Additional efforts are needed to identify and evaluate mothers with depressive symptoms to improve the health and safety of young infants.

Use of Ketorolac Is Associated with Decreased Pneumonia Following Rib Fractures

PubMed Central

Yang, Yifan; Young, Jason B.; Schermer, Carol R.; Utter, Garth H.

2015-01-01

Background The effectiveness of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug ketorolac in reducing pulmonary morbidity following rib fractures remains largely unknown. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study spanning January, 2003 to June, 2011, comparing pneumonia within 30 days and potential adverse effects of ketorolac among all patients with rib fractures who received ketorolac within four days post-injury to a random sample of those who did not. Results Among 202 patients who received ketorolac and 417 who did not, ketorolac use was associated with decreased pneumonia [odds ratio 0.14 (95% confidence interval 0.04–0.46)] and increased ventilator- and intensive care unit-free days [1.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1–2.5) and 2.1 (95% confidence interval 1.3–3.0) days, respectively] within 30 days. The rates of acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and fracture non-union were not different. Conclusions Early administration of ketorolac to patients with rib fractures is associated with a decreased likelihood of pneumonia, without apparent risks. PMID:24112670

Use of ketorolac is associated with decreased pneumonia following rib fractures.

PubMed

Yang, Yifan; Young, Jason B; Schermer, Carol R; Utter, Garth H

2014-04-01

The effectiveness of the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug ketorolac in reducing pulmonary morbidity after rib fractures remains largely unknown. A retrospective cohort study was conducted spanning January 2003 to June 2011 assessing pneumonia within 30 days and potential adverse effects of ketorolac among all patients with rib fractures who received ketorolac <4 days after injury compared with a random sample of those who did not. Among 202 patients who received ketorolac and 417 who did not, ketorolac use was associated with decreased pneumonia (odds ratio, .14; 95% confidence interval, .04 to .46) and increased ventilator-free days (difference, 1.8 days; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.5) and intensive care unit-free days (difference, 2.1 days; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 3.0) within 30 days. The rates of acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and fracture nonunion were not different. Early administration of ketorolac to patients with rib fractures is associated with a decreased likelihood of pneumonia, without apparent risks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Special physical examination tests for superior labrum anterior posterior shoulder tears are clinically limited and invalid: a diagnostic systematic review.

PubMed

Calvert, Eric; Chambers, Gordon Keith; Regan, William; Hawkins, Robert H; Leith, Jordan M

2009-05-01

The diagnosis of a superior labrum anterior posterior (SLAP) lesion through physical examination has been widely reported in the literature. Most of these studies report high sensitivities and specificities, and claim to be accurate, valid, and reliable. The purpose of this study was to critically evaluate these studies to determine if there was sufficient evidence to support the use of the SLAP physical examination tests as valid and reliable diagnostic test procedures. Strict epidemiologic methodology was used to obtain and collate all relevant articles. Sackett's guidelines were applied to all articles. Confidence intervals and likelihood ratios were determined. Fifteen of 29 relevant studies met the criteria for inclusion. Only one article met all of Sackett's critical appraisal criteria. Confidence intervals for both the positive and negative likelihood ratios contained the value 1. The current literature being used as a resource for teaching in medical schools and continuing education lacks the validity necessary to be useful. There are no good physical examination tests that exist for effectively diagnosing a SLAP lesion.

Pre-Intensive Care Unit Cognitive Status, Subsequent Disability, and New Nursing Home Admission among Critically Ill Older Adults.

PubMed

Ferrante, Lauren E; Murphy, Terrence E; Gahbauer, Evelyne A; Leo-Summers, Linda S; Pisani, Margaret A; Gill, Thomas M

2018-05-01

Cognitive impairment is common among older adults, yet little is known about the association of pre-intensive care unit cognitive status with outcomes relevant to older adults maintaining independence after a critical illness. To evaluate whether pre-intensive care unit cognitive status is associated with post-intensive care unit disability, new nursing home admission, and mortality after a critical illness among older adults. In this prospective cohort study, 754 persons aged 70 years or more were monitored from March 1998 to December 2013 with monthly assessments of disability. Cognitive status was assessed every 18 months, using the Mini-Mental State Examination (range, 0-30), with scores classified as 28 or higher (cognitively intact), 24-27 (minimal impairment), and less than 24 (moderate impairment). The primary outcome was disability count (range, 0-13), assessed monthly over 6 months after an intensive care unit stay. The secondary outcomes were incident nursing home admission and time to death after intensive care unit admission. The analytic sample included 391 intensive care unit admissions. The mean age was 83.5 years. The prevalence of moderate impairment, minimal impairment, and intact cognition (the comparison group) was 17.3, 46.2, and 36.5%, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, moderate impairment was associated with nearly a 20% increase in disability over the 6-month follow-up period (adjusted relative risk, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.36), and minimal impairment was associated with a 16% increase in post-intensive care unit disability (adjusted relative risk, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.32). Moderate impairment was associated with more than double the likelihood of a new nursing home admission (adjusted odds ratio, 2.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-5.55). Survival differed significantly across the three cognitive groups (log-rank P = 0.002), but neither moderate impairment (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-2.19) nor minimal impairment (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.62) was significantly associated with mortality in the multivariable analysis. Among older adults, any impairment (even minimal) in pre-intensive care unit cognitive status was associated with an increase in post-intensive care unit disability over the 6 months after a critical illness; moderate cognitive impairment doubled the likelihood of a new nursing home admission. Pre-intensive care unit cognitive impairment was not associated with mortality from intensive care unit admission through 6 months of follow-up. Pre-intensive care unit cognitive status may provide prognostic information about the likelihood of older adults maintaining independence after a critical illness.

Ureteral Stones: Implementation of a Reduced-Dose CT Protocol in Patients in the Emergency Department with Moderate to High Likelihood of Calculi on the Basis of STONE Score1

PubMed Central

Moore, Christopher L.; Daniels, Brock; Singh, Dinesh; Luty, Seth; Gunabushanam, Gowthaman; Ghita, Monica; Molinaro, Annette; Gross, Cary P.

2016-01-01

Purpose To determine if a reduced-dose computed tomography (CT) protocol could effectively help to identify patients in the emergency department (ED) with moderate to high likelihood of calculi who would require urologic intervention within 90 days. Materials and Methods The study was approved by the institutional review board and written informed consent with HIPAA authorization was obtained. This was a prospective, single-center study of patients in the ED with moderate to high likelihood of ureteral stone undergoing CT imaging. Objective likelihood of ureteral stone was determined by using the previously derived and validated STONE clinical prediction rule, which includes five elements: sex, timing, origin, nausea, and erythrocytes. All patients with high STONE score (STONE score, 10–13) underwent reduced-dose CT, while those with moderate likelihood of ureteral stone (moderate STONE score, 6–9) underwent reduced-dose CT or standard CT based on clinician discretion. Patients were followed to 90 days after initial imaging for clinical course and for the primary outcome of any intervention. Statistics are primarily descriptive and are reported as percentages, sensitivities, and specificities with 95% confidence intervals. Results There were 264 participants enrolled and 165 reduced-dose CTs performed; of these participants, 108 underwent reduced-dose CT alone with complete follow-up. Overall, 46 of 264 (17.4%) of patients underwent urologic intervention, and 25 of 108 (23.1%) patients who underwent reduced-dose CT underwent a urologic intervention; all were correctly diagnosed on the clinical report of the reduced-dose CT (sensitivity, 100%; 95% confidence interval: 86.7%, 100%). The average dose-length product for all standard-dose CTs was 857 mGy · cm ± 395 compared with 101 mGy · cm ± 39 for all reduced-dose CTs (average dose reduction, 88.2%). There were five interventions for nonurologic causes, three of which were urgent and none of which were missed when reduced-dose CT was performed. Conclusion A CT protocol with over 85% dose reduction can be used in patients with moderate to high likelihood of ureteral stone to safely and effectively identify patients in the ED who will require urologic intervention. PMID:26943230

Refusal bias in HIV prevalence estimates from nationally representative seroprevalence surveys.

PubMed

Reniers, Georges; Eaton, Jeffrey

2009-03-13

To assess the relationship between prior knowledge of one's HIV status and the likelihood to refuse HIV testing in populations-based surveys and explore its potential for producing bias in HIV prevalence estimates. Using longitudinal survey data from Malawi, we estimate the relationship between prior knowledge of HIV-positive status and subsequent refusal of an HIV test. We use that parameter to develop a heuristic model of refusal bias that is applied to six Demographic and Health Surveys, in which refusal by HIV status is not observed. The model only adjusts for refusal bias conditional on a completed interview. Ecologically, HIV prevalence, prior testing rates and refusal for HIV testing are highly correlated. Malawian data further suggest that amongst individuals who know their status, HIV-positive individuals are 4.62 (95% confidence interval, 2.60-8.21) times more likely to refuse testing than HIV-negative ones. On the basis of that parameter and other inputs from the Demographic and Health Surveys, our model predicts downward bias in national HIV prevalence estimates ranging from 1.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.7-2.9) for Senegal to 13.3% (95% confidence interval, 7.2-19.6) for Malawi. In absolute terms, bias in HIV prevalence estimates is negligible for Senegal but 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 0.8-2.3) percentage points for Malawi. Downward bias is more severe in urban populations. Because refusal rates are higher in men, seroprevalence surveys also tend to overestimate the female-to-male ratio of infections. Prior knowledge of HIV status informs decisions to participate in seroprevalence surveys. Informed refusals may produce bias in estimates of HIV prevalence and the sex ratio of infections.

Association of Air Pollution Exposures With High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Particle Number: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Bell, Griffith; Mora, Samia; Greenland, Philip; Tsai, Michael; Gill, Ed; Kaufman, Joel D

2017-05-01

The relationship between air pollution and cardiovascular disease may be explained by changes in high-density lipoprotein (HDL). We examined the cross-sectional relationship between air pollution and both HDL cholesterol and HDL particle number in the MESA Air study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Air Pollution). Study participants were 6654 white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese men and women aged 45 to 84 years. We estimated individual residential ambient fine particulate pollution exposure (PM 2.5 ) and black carbon concentrations using a fine-scale likelihood-based spatiotemporal model and cohort-specific monitoring. Exposure periods were averaged to 12 months, 3 months, and 2 weeks prior to examination. HDL cholesterol and HDL particle number were measured in the year 2000 using the cholesterol oxidase method and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, respectively. We used multivariable linear regression to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and HDL measures. A 0.7×10 - 6 m - 1 higher exposure to black carbon (a marker of traffic-related pollution) averaged over a 1-year period was significantly associated with a lower HDL cholesterol (-1.68 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -2.86 to -0.50) and approached significance with HDL particle number (-0.55 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -1.13 to 0.03). In the 3-month averaging time period, a 5 μg/m 3 higher PM 2.5 was associated with lower HDL particle number (-0.64 μmol/L; 95% confidence interval, -1.01 to -0.26), but not HDL cholesterol (-0.05 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval, -0.82 to 0.71). These data are consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to air pollution is adversely associated with measures of HDL. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Relationship between daily exposure to biomass fuel smoke and blood pressure in high-altitude Peru.

PubMed

Burroughs Peña, Melissa; Romero, Karina M; Velazquez, Eric J; Davila-Roman, Victor G; Gilman, Robert H; Wise, Robert A; Miranda, J Jaime; Checkley, William

2015-05-01

Household air pollution from biomass fuel use affects 3 billion people worldwide; however, few studies have examined the relationship between biomass fuel use and blood pressure. We sought to determine if daily biomass fuel use was associated with elevated blood pressure in high altitude Peru and if this relationship was affected by lung function. We analyzed baseline information from a population-based cohort study of adults aged ≥ 35 years in Puno, Peru. Daily biomass fuel use was self-reported. We used multivariable regression models to examine the relationship between daily exposure to biomass fuel smoke and blood pressure outcomes. Interactions with sex and quartiles of forced vital capacity were conducted to evaluate for effect modification. Data from 1004 individuals (mean age, 55.3 years; 51.7% women) were included. We found an association between biomass fuel use with both prehypertension (adjusted relative risk ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-9.9) and hypertension (adjusted relative risk ratio, 3.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-7.0). Biomass fuel users had a higher systolic blood pressure (7.0 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 4.4-9.6) and a higher diastolic blood pressure (5.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 4.2-7.6) when compared with nonusers. We did not find interaction effects between daily biomass fuel use and sex or percent predicted forced vital capacity for either systolic blood pressure or diastolic blood pressure. Biomass fuel use was associated with a higher likelihood of having hypertension and higher blood pressure in Peru. Reducing exposure to household air pollution from biomass fuel use represents an opportunity for cardiovascular prevention. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Validity of self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection.

PubMed

Frisse, Ann C; Marrazzo, Jeanne M; Tutlam, Nhial T; Schreiber, Courtney A; Teal, Stephanie B; Turok, David K; Peipert, Jeffrey F

2017-04-01

Chlamydia trachomatis infection is common and largely asymptomatic in women. If untreated, it can lead to sequelae such as pelvic inflammatory disease and infertility. It is unknown whether a patient's self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection is a valid marker of past infection. Our objective was to evaluate the validity of women's self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection compared with Chlamydia trachomatis serology, a marker for previous infection. We analyzed data from the Fertility After Contraception Termination study. We compared participants' survey responses with the question, "Have you ever been told by a health care provider that you had Chlamydia?" to serological test results indicating the presence or absence of antibodies to Chlamydia trachomatis as assessed by a microimmunofluorescence assay. Prevalence of past infection, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. The Cohen's kappa statistic was computed to assess agreement between self-report and serology. Among 409 participants, 108 (26%) reported having a history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection, whereas 146 (36%) had positive serological test results. Relative to positive microimmunofluorescence assay, the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection were 52.1% (95% confidence interval, 43.6-60.4%) and 87.8% (95% confidence interval, 83.3-91.5%), respectively. The positive predictive value of the self-report was 70.4% (95% confidence interval, 60.8-78.8%), and the negative predictive value was 76.7% (95% confidence interval, 71.6-81.4%). The likelihood ratio was found to be 4.28. Agreement between self-report and serology was found to be moderate (kappa = 0.42, P < .001). Self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection commonly yields false-negative and false-positive results. When definitive status of past Chlamydia trachomatis infection is needed, serology should be obtained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multigene assay to predict recurrence of tamoxifen-treated, node-negative breast cancer.

PubMed

Paik, Soonmyung; Shak, Steven; Tang, Gong; Kim, Chungyeul; Baker, Joffre; Cronin, Maureen; Baehner, Frederick L; Walker, Michael G; Watson, Drew; Park, Taesung; Hiller, William; Fisher, Edwin R; Wickerham, D Lawrence; Bryant, John; Wolmark, Norman

2004-12-30

The likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with breast cancer who have no involved lymph nodes and estrogen-receptor-positive tumors is poorly defined by clinical and histopathological measures. We tested whether the results of a reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay of 21 prospectively selected genes in paraffin-embedded tumor tissue would correlate with the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with node-negative, tamoxifen-treated breast cancer who were enrolled in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project clinical trial B-14. The levels of expression of 16 cancer-related genes and 5 reference genes were used in a prospectively defined algorithm to calculate a recurrence score and to determine a risk group (low, intermediate, or high) for each patient. Adequate RT-PCR profiles were obtained in 668 of 675 tumor blocks. The proportions of patients categorized as having a low, intermediate, or high risk by the RT-PCR assay were 51, 22, and 27 percent, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the rates of distant recurrence at 10 years in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 6.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 4.0 to 9.6), 14.3 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 8.3 to 20.3), and 30.5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 23.6 to 37.4). The rate in the low-risk group was significantly lower than that in the high-risk group (P<0.001). In a multivariate Cox model, the recurrence score provided significant predictive power that was independent of age and tumor size (P<0.001). The recurrence score was also predictive of overall survival (P<0.001) and could be used as a continuous function to predict distant recurrence in individual patients. The recurrence score has been validated as quantifying the likelihood of distant recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients with node-negative, estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society.

A Power-Law Growth and Decay Model with Autocorrelation for Posting Data to Social Networking Services.

PubMed

Fujiyama, Toshifumi; Matsui, Chihiro; Takemura, Akimichi

2016-01-01

We propose a power-law growth and decay model for posting data to social networking services before and after social events. We model the time series structure of deviations from the power-law growth and decay with a conditional Poisson autoregressive (AR) model. Online postings related to social events are described by five parameters in the power-law growth and decay model, each of which characterizes different aspects of interest in the event. We assess the validity of parameter estimates in terms of confidence intervals, and compare various submodels based on likelihoods and information criteria.

A Statistical Method for Synthesizing Mediation Analyses Using the Product of Coefficient Approach Across Multiple Trials

PubMed Central

Huang, Shi; MacKinnon, David P.; Perrino, Tatiana; Gallo, Carlos; Cruden, Gracelyn; Brown, C Hendricks

2016-01-01

Mediation analysis often requires larger sample sizes than main effect analysis to achieve the same statistical power. Combining results across similar trials may be the only practical option for increasing statistical power for mediation analysis in some situations. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate: 1) marginal means for mediation path a, the relation of the independent variable to the mediator; 2) marginal means for path b, the relation of the mediator to the outcome, across multiple trials; and 3) the between-trial level variance-covariance matrix based on a bivariate normal distribution. We present the statistical theory and an R computer program to combine regression coefficients from multiple trials to estimate a combined mediated effect and confidence interval under a random effects model. Values of coefficients a and b, along with their standard errors from each trial are the input for the method. This marginal likelihood based approach with Monte Carlo confidence intervals provides more accurate inference than the standard meta-analytic approach. We discuss computational issues, apply the method to two real-data examples and make recommendations for the use of the method in different settings. PMID:28239330

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick Charles

1985-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

Load estimator (LOADEST): a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Crawford, Charles G.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2004-01-01

LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST) is a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers. Given a time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and constituent concentration, LOADEST assists the user in developing a regression model for the estimation of constituent load (calibration). Explanatory variables within the regression model include various functions of streamflow, decimal time, and additional user-specified data variables. The formulated regression model then is used to estimate loads over a user-specified time interval (estimation). Mean load estimates, standard errors, and 95 percent confidence intervals are developed on a monthly and(or) seasonal basis. The calibration and estimation procedures within LOADEST are based on three statistical estimation methods. The first two methods, Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (AMLE) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), are appropriate when the calibration model errors (residuals) are normally distributed. Of the two, AMLE is the method of choice when the calibration data set (time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and concentration) contains censored data. The third method, Least Absolute Deviation (LAD), is an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation when the residuals are not normally distributed. LOADEST output includes diagnostic tests and warnings to assist the user in determining the appropriate estimation method and in interpreting the estimated loads. This report describes the development and application of LOADEST. Sections of the report describe estimation theory, input/output specifications, sample applications, and installation instructions.

Linkage disequilibrium interval mapping of quantitative trait loci.

PubMed

Boitard, Simon; Abdallah, Jihad; de Rochambeau, Hubert; Cierco-Ayrolles, Christine; Mangin, Brigitte

2006-03-16

For many years gene mapping studies have been performed through linkage analyses based on pedigree data. Recently, linkage disequilibrium methods based on unrelated individuals have been advocated as powerful tools to refine estimates of gene location. Many strategies have been proposed to deal with simply inherited disease traits. However, locating quantitative trait loci is statistically more challenging and considerable research is needed to provide robust and computationally efficient methods. Under a three-locus Wright-Fisher model, we derived approximate expressions for the expected haplotype frequencies in a population. We considered haplotypes comprising one trait locus and two flanking markers. Using these theoretical expressions, we built a likelihood-maximization method, called HAPim, for estimating the location of a quantitative trait locus. For each postulated position, the method only requires information from the two flanking markers. Over a wide range of simulation scenarios it was found to be more accurate than a two-marker composite likelihood method. It also performed as well as identity by descent methods, whilst being valuable in a wider range of populations. Our method makes efficient use of marker information, and can be valuable for fine mapping purposes. Its performance is increased if multiallelic markers are available. Several improvements can be developed to account for more complex evolution scenarios or provide robust confidence intervals for the location estimates.

Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

2009-01-07

The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

Intimate partner violence among women in Spain: the impact of regional-level male unemployment and income inequality.

PubMed

Sanz-Barbero, Belén; Vives-Cases, Carmen; Otero-García, Laura; Muntaner, Carles; Torrubiano-Domínguez, Jordi; O'Campo, Patricia

2015-12-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is a complex worldwide public health problem. There is scarce research on the independent effect on IPV exerted by structural factors such as labour and economic policies, economic inequalities and gender inequality. To analyse the association, in Spain, between contextual variables of regional unemployment and income inequality and individual women's likelihood of IPV, independently of the women's characteristics. We conducted multilevel logistic regression to analyse cross-sectional data from the 2011 Spanish Macrosurvey of Gender-based Violence which included 7898 adult women. The first level of analyses was the individual women' characteristics and the second level was the region of residence. Of the survey participants, 12.2% reported lifetime IPV. The region of residence accounted for 3.5% of the total variability in IPV prevalence. We determined a direct association between regional male long-term unemployment and IPV likelihood (P = 0.007) and between the Gini Index for the regional income inequality and IPV likelihood (P < 0.001). Women residing in a region with higher gender-based income discrimination are at a lower likelihood of IPV than those residing in a region with low gender-based income discrimination (odds ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence intervals: 0.55-0.75). Growing regional unemployment rates and income inequalities increase women's likelihood of IPV. In times of economic downturn, like the current one in Spain, this association may translate into an increase in women's vulnerability to IPV. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Modeling and E-M estimation of haplotype-specific relative risks from genotype data for a case-control study of unrelated individuals.

PubMed

Stram, Daniel O; Leigh Pearce, Celeste; Bretsky, Phillip; Freedman, Matthew; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Altshuler, David; Kolonel, Laurence N; Henderson, Brian E; Thomas, Duncan C

2003-01-01

The US National Cancer Institute has recently sponsored the formation of a Cohort Consortium (http://2002.cancer.gov/scpgenes.htm) to facilitate the pooling of data on very large numbers of people, concerning the effects of genes and environment on cancer incidence. One likely goal of these efforts will be generate a large population-based case-control series for which a number of candidate genes will be investigated using SNP haplotype as well as genotype analysis. The goal of this paper is to outline the issues involved in choosing a method of estimating haplotype-specific risk estimates for such data that is technically appropriate and yet attractive to epidemiologists who are already comfortable with odds ratios and logistic regression. Our interest is to develop and evaluate extensions of methods, based on haplotype imputation, that have been recently described (Schaid et al., Am J Hum Genet, 2002, and Zaykin et al., Hum Hered, 2002) as providing score tests of the null hypothesis of no effect of SNP haplotypes upon risk, which may be used for more complex tasks, such as providing confidence intervals, and tests of equivalence of haplotype-specific risks in two or more separate populations. In order to do so we (1) develop a cohort approach towards odds ratio analysis by expanding the E-M algorithm to provide maximum likelihood estimates of haplotype-specific odds ratios as well as genotype frequencies; (2) show how to correct the cohort approach, to give essentially unbiased estimates for population-based or nested case-control studies by incorporating the probability of selection as a case or control into the likelihood, based on a simplified model of case and control selection, and (3) finally, in an example data set (CYP17 and breast cancer, from the Multiethnic Cohort Study) we compare likelihood-based confidence interval estimates from the two methods with each other, and with the use of the single-imputation approach of Zaykin et al. applied under both null and alternative hypotheses. We conclude that so long as haplotypes are well predicted by SNP genotypes (we use the Rh2 criteria of Stram et al. [1]) the differences between the three methods are very small and in particular that the single imputation method may be expected to work extremely well. Copyright 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel

Hidradenitis Suppurativa Is Associated with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: A Population-Based Analysis in the United States.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Neuren, Erica; Strunk, Andrew

2018-06-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) has been linked to hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). However, evidence establishing a relationship between the two conditions is limited. We sought to determine the prevalence of PCOS among patients with HS and the strength of the association. We performed a cross-sectional analysis involving 22,990 patients with HS using clinical data from a multihealth system analytics platform comprising more than 55 million unique patients across all census regions of the United States. The prevalence of PCOS among patients with HS was 9.0%, compared with 2.9% in patients without HS (P < 0.0001). The likelihood of patients with HS having PCOS was 2.14 (95% confidence interval 2.04-2.24) times that of patients without HS, and PCOS was associated with HS across all subgroups. The strength of the HS association with PCOS was similar to that of diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 2.88, 95% confidence interval 2.83-2.93) and obesity (odds ratio 3.93, 95% confidence interval 3.87-3.99) with PCOS. The influence of disease severity on the strength of association with PCOS could not be assessed, nor could an HS phenotype for patients also having PCOS. This analysis could not establish directionality of relationship, nor causal link. In conclusion, PCOS is associated with HS, and patients with HS who have symptoms or signs of androgen excess should be screened for PCOS. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Stochastic Approximation Techniques to Efficiently Construct Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

PubMed

Schweiger, Regev; Fisher, Eyal; Rahmani, Elior; Shenhav, Liat; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

2018-06-22

Estimation of heritability is an important task in genetics. The use of linear mixed models (LMMs) to determine narrow-sense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability and related quantities has received much recent attention, due of its ability to account for variants with small effect sizes. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. The common way to report the uncertainty in REML estimation uses standard errors (SEs), which rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, for larger data sets (e.g., tens of thousands of individuals), the construction of SEs itself may require considerable time, as it requires expensive matrix inversions and multiplications. Here, we present FIESTA (Fast confidence IntErvals using STochastic Approximation), a method for constructing accurate CIs. FIESTA is based on parametric bootstrap sampling, and, therefore, avoids unjustified assumptions on the distribution of the heritability estimator. FIESTA uses stochastic approximation techniques, which accelerate the construction of CIs by several orders of magnitude, compared with previous approaches as well as to the analytical approximation used by SEs. FIESTA builds accurate CIs rapidly, for example, requiring only several seconds for data sets of tens of thousands of individuals, making FIESTA a very fast solution to the problem of building accurate CIs for heritability for all data set sizes.

Confidence Intervals for the Between-Study Variance in Random Effects Meta-Analysis Using Generalised Cochran Heterogeneity Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Dan

2013-01-01

Statistical inference is problematic in the common situation in meta-analysis where the random effects model is fitted to just a handful of studies. In particular, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood provides a poor approximation, and Bayesian methods are sensitive to the prior specification. Hence, less efficient, but easily computed and…

A Power-Law Growth and Decay Model with Autocorrelation for Posting Data to Social Networking Services

PubMed Central

Fujiyama, Toshifumi; Matsui, Chihiro; Takemura, Akimichi

2016-01-01

We propose a power-law growth and decay model for posting data to social networking services before and after social events. We model the time series structure of deviations from the power-law growth and decay with a conditional Poisson autoregressive (AR) model. Online postings related to social events are described by five parameters in the power-law growth and decay model, each of which characterizes different aspects of interest in the event. We assess the validity of parameter estimates in terms of confidence intervals, and compare various submodels based on likelihoods and information criteria. PMID:27505155

The role of latex agglutination test for the etiological diagnosis of pleural effusion in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Camargos, Paulo; Fonseca, Ana Cristina; Amantéa, Sérgio; Oliveira, Elizabeth; Benfica, Maria das Graças; Chamone, Chequer

2017-05-01

The etiological diagnosis of pleural effusion is a difficult task because the diagnostic tools can only establish a definitive etiological diagnosis in at most 76% of cases. To verify the diagnostic accuracy of the latex agglutination test (LAT) for the etiological diagnosis of pleural effusions caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b. After thoracocentesis, paired fresh samples of pleural fluid from 418 children and adolescents were included in this investigation. They were tested blindly and simultaneously through counterimmunoelectrophoresis (CIE) and LAT for both bacteria. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated taking CIE as a reference standard. The sensitivity and specificity of LAT was 100% (95% confidence interval, 94.4%-100%) and 83.3% (95% confidence interval, 79.0%-87.0%), respectively, whereas the positive (calculated from Bayes' theorem) and negative predictive values were, respectively, lower than 1% and 100% (95% confidence interval, 98.8%-100%). Positive and negative LR were 6.0 (95% confidence interval, 4.7-7.6) and zero, respectively. Our results suggest that LAT is a useful tool for the etiological diagnosis of pleural effusion. It is a reliable, rapid, simple to perform and shows an excellent yield in our studied population, helping to prescribe appropriate antibiotics for this clinical condition. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Fecal Microbiota Profile and Bronchiolitis in Infants

PubMed Central

Linnemann, Rachel W.; Mansbach, Jonathan M.; Ajami, Nadim J.; Espinola, Janice A.; Petrosino, Joseph F.; Piedra, Pedro A.; Stevenson, Michelle D.; Sullivan, Ashley F.; Thompson, Amy D.; Camargo, Carlos A.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the association of gut microbiota, a potentially modifiable factor, with bronchiolitis in infants. We aimed to determine the association of fecal microbiota with bronchiolitis in infants. METHODS: We conducted a case–control study. As a part of multicenter prospective study, we collected stool samples from 40 infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis. We concurrently enrolled 115 age-matched healthy controls. By applying 16S rRNA gene sequencing and an unbiased clustering approach to these 155 fecal samples, we identified microbiota profiles and determined the association of microbiota profiles with likelihood of bronchiolitis. RESULTS: Overall, the median age was 3 months, 55% were male, and 54% were non-Hispanic white. Unbiased clustering of fecal microbiota identified 4 distinct profiles: Escherichia-dominant profile (30%), Bifidobacterium-dominant profile (21%), Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile (22%), and Bacteroides-dominant profile (28%). The proportion of bronchiolitis was lowest in infants with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile (15%) and highest in the Bacteroides-dominant profile (44%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 4.59 (95% confidence interval, 1.58–15.5; P = .008). In the multivariable model, the significant association between the Bacteroides-dominant profile and a greater likelihood of bronchiolitis persisted (odds ratio for comparison with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile, 4.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.56–12.0; P = .005). In contrast, the likelihood of bronchiolitis in infants with the Escherichia-dominant or Bifidobacterium-dominant profile was not significantly different compared with those with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile. CONCLUSIONS: In this case–control study, we identified 4 distinct fecal microbiota profiles in infants. The Bacteroides-dominant profile was associated with a higher likelihood of bronchiolitis. PMID:27354456

Methods to estimate the between‐study variance and its uncertainty in meta‐analysis†

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Bender, Ralf; Bowden, Jack; Knapp, Guido; Kuss, Oliver; Higgins, Julian PT; Langan, Dean; Salanti, Georgia

2015-01-01

Meta‐analyses are typically used to estimate the overall/mean of an outcome of interest. However, inference about between‐study variability, which is typically modelled using a between‐study variance parameter, is usually an additional aim. The DerSimonian and Laird method, currently widely used by default to estimate the between‐study variance, has been long challenged. Our aim is to identify known methods for estimation of the between‐study variance and its corresponding uncertainty, and to summarise the simulation and empirical evidence that compares them. We identified 16 estimators for the between‐study variance, seven methods to calculate confidence intervals, and several comparative studies. Simulation studies suggest that for both dichotomous and continuous data the estimator proposed by Paule and Mandel and for continuous data the restricted maximum likelihood estimator are better alternatives to estimate the between‐study variance. Based on the scenarios and results presented in the published studies, we recommend the Q‐profile method and the alternative approach based on a ‘generalised Cochran between‐study variance statistic’ to compute corresponding confidence intervals around the resulting estimates. Our recommendations are based on a qualitative evaluation of the existing literature and expert consensus. Evidence‐based recommendations require an extensive simulation study where all methods would be compared under the same scenarios. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26332144

Fast integration-based prediction bands for ordinary differential equation models.

PubMed

Hass, Helge; Kreutz, Clemens; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

2016-04-15

To gain a deeper understanding of biological processes and their relevance in disease, mathematical models are built upon experimental data. Uncertainty in the data leads to uncertainties of the model's parameters and in turn to uncertainties of predictions. Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks are frequently based on nonlinear differential equation systems and feature a large number of parameters, sparse observations of the model components and lack of information in the available data. Due to the curse of dimensionality, classical and sampling approaches propagating parameter uncertainties to predictions are hardly feasible and insufficient. However, for experimental design and to discriminate between competing models, prediction and confidence bands are essential. To circumvent the hurdles of the former methods, an approach to calculate a profile likelihood on arbitrary observations for a specific time point has been introduced, which provides accurate confidence and prediction intervals for nonlinear models and is computationally feasible for high-dimensional models. In this article, reliable and smooth point-wise prediction and confidence bands to assess the model's uncertainty on the whole time-course are achieved via explicit integration with elaborate correction mechanisms. The corresponding system of ordinary differential equations is derived and tested on three established models for cellular signalling. An efficiency analysis is performed to illustrate the computational benefit compared with repeated profile likelihood calculations at multiple time points. The integration framework and the examples used in this article are provided with the software package Data2Dynamics, which is based on MATLAB and freely available at http://www.data2dynamics.org helge.hass@fdm.uni-freiburg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimating numbers of greater prairie-chickens using mark-resight techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clifton, A.M.; Krementz, D.G.

2006-01-01

Current monitoring efforts for greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) populations indicate that populations are declining across their range. Monitoring the population status of greater prairie-chickens is based on traditional lek surveys (TLS) that provide an index without considering detectability. Estimators, such as immigration-emigration joint maximum-likelihood estimator from a hypergeometric distribution (IEJHE), can account for detectability and provide reliable population estimates based on resightings. We evaluated the use of mark-resight methods using radiotelemetry to estimate population size and density of greater prairie-chickens on 2 sites at a tallgrass prairie in the Flint Hills of Kansas, USA. We used average distances traveled from lek of capture to estimate density. Population estimates and confidence intervals at the 2 sites were 54 (CI 50-59) on 52.9 km 2 and 87 (CI 82-94) on 73.6 km2. The TLS performed at the same sites resulted in population ranges of 7-34 and 36-63 and always produced a lower population index than the mark-resight population estimate with a larger range. Mark-resight simulations with varying male:female ratios of marks indicated that this ratio was important in designing a population study on prairie-chickens. Confidence intervals for estimates when no marks were placed on females at the 2 sites (CI 46-50, 76-84) did not overlap confidence intervals when 40% of marks were placed on females (CI 54-64, 91-109). Population estimates derived using this mark-resight technique were apparently more accurate than traditional methods and would be more effective in detecting changes in prairie-chicken populations. Our technique could improve prairie-chicken management by providing wildlife biologists and land managers with a tool to estimate the population size and trends of lekking bird species, such as greater prairie-chickens.

PGS-FISH in reproductive medicine and perspective directions for improvement: a systematic review.

PubMed

Zamora, Sandra; Clavero, Ana; Gonzalvo, M Carmen; de Dios Luna Del Castillo, Juan; Roldán-Nofuentes, Jose Antonio; Mozas, Juan; Castilla, Jose Antonio

2011-08-01

Embryo selection can be carried out via morphological criteria or by using genetic studies based on Preimplantation Genetic Screening. In the present study, we evaluate the clinical validity of Preimplantation Genetic Screening with fluorescence in situ hybridization (PGS-FISH) compared with morphological embryo criteria. A systematic review was made of the bibliography, with the following goals: firstly, to determine the prevalence of embryo chromosome alteration in clinical situations in which the PGS-FISH technique has been used; secondly, to calculate the statistics of diagnostic efficiency (negative Likelihood Ratio), using 2 × 2 tables, derived from PGS-FISH. The results obtained were compared with those obtained from embryo morphology. We calculated the probability of transferring at least one chromosome-normal embryo when it was selected using either morphological criteria or PGS-FISH, and considered what diagnostic performance should be expected of an embryo selection test with respect to achieving greater clinical validity than that obtained from embryo morphology. After an embryo morphology selection that produced a negative result (normal morphology), the likelihood of embryo aneuploidies was found to range from a pre-test value of 65% (prevalence of embryo chromosome alteration registered in all the study groups) to a post-test value of 55% (Confidence interval: 50-61), while after PGS-FISH with a negative result (euploid), the post-test probability was 42% (Confidence interval: 35-49) (p < 0.05). The probability of transferring at least one euploid embryo was the same whether 3 embryos were selected according to morphological criteria or whether 2, selected by PGS-FISH, were transferred. Any embryo selection test, if it is to provide greater clinical validity than embryo morphology, must present a LR-value of 0.40 (Confidence interval: 0.32-0.51) in single embryo transfer, and 0.06 (CI: 0.05-0.07) in double embryo transfer. With currently available technology, and taking into account the number of embryos to be transferred, the clinical validity of PGS-FISH, although superior to that of morphological criteria, does not appear to be clinically relevant.

Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

2014-05-01

The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model goodness metric on calibration. The different likelihoods are different functions of RMSE (root mean squared error) weighted by measurement uncertainty: exponential / linear / quadratic / linear normalized by correlation. As a first calibration step sensitivity analysis was performed in order to select the influential parameters which have strong effect on the output data. In the second calibration step only the sensitive parameters were calibrated (optimal values and confidence intervals were calculated). In case of PaSim more parameters were found responsible for the 95% of the output data variance than is case of BBGC MuSo. Analysis of the results of the optimized models revealed that the exponential likelihood estimation proved to be the most robust (best model simulation with optimized parameter, highest confidence interval increase). The cross-validation of the model simulations can help in constraining the highly uncertain greenhouse gas budget of grasslands.

Peer-driven contraceptive choices and preferences for contraceptive methods among students of tertiary educational institutions in Enugu, Nigeria.

PubMed

Iyoke, Ca; Ezugwu, Fo; Lawani, Ol; Ugwu, Go; Ajah, Lo; Mba, Sg

2014-01-01

To describe the methods preferred for contraception, evaluate preferences and adherence to modern contraceptive methods, and determine the factors associated with contraceptive choices among tertiary students in South East Nigeria. A questionnaire-based cross-sectional study of sexual habits, knowledge of contraceptive methods, and patterns of contraceptive choices among a pooled sample of unmarried students from the three largest tertiary educational institutions in Enugu city, Nigeria was done. Statistical analysis involved descriptive and inferential statistics at the 95% level of confidence. A total of 313 unmarried students were studied (194 males; 119 females). Their mean age was 22.5±5.1 years. Over 98% of males and 85% of females made their contraceptive choices based on information from peers. Preferences for contraceptive methods among female students were 49.2% for traditional methods of contraception, 28% for modern methods, 10% for nonpharmacological agents, and 8% for off-label drugs. Adherence to modern contraceptives among female students was 35%. Among male students, the preference for the male condom was 45.2% and the adherence to condom use was 21.7%. Multivariate analysis showed that receiving information from health personnel/media/workshops (odds ratio 9.54, 95% confidence interval 3.5-26.3), health science-related course of study (odds ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval 1.3-9.6), and previous sexual exposure prior to university admission (odds ratio 3.48, 95% confidence interval 1.5-8.0) all increased the likelihood of adherence to modern contraceptive methods. An overwhelming reliance on peers for contraceptive information in the context of poor knowledge of modern methods of contraception among young people could have contributed to the low preferences and adherence to modern contraceptive methods among students in tertiary educational institutions. Programs to reduce risky sexual behavior among these students may need to focus on increasing the content and adequacy of contraceptive information held by people through regular health worker-led, on-campus workshops.

Parkinson's disease: a population-based investigation of life satisfaction and employment.

PubMed

Gustafsson, Helena; Nordström, Peter; Stråhle, Stefan; Nordström, Anna

2015-01-01

To investigate relationships between individuals' socioeconomic situations and quality of life in working-aged subjects with Parkinson's disease. A population-based cohort comprising 1,432 people with Parkinson's disease and 1,135 matched controls, who responded to a questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with life satisfaction and likelihood of employment. In multivariate analyses, Parkinson's disease was associated with an increased risk of dissatisfaction with life (odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 4.2-7.1) and reduced likelihood of employment (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.25-0.37). Employers' support was associated with greater likelihood of employment (p < 0.001). Twenty-four percent of people with Parkinson's disease for ≥ 10 years remained employed and 6% worked full-time. People with Parkinson's disease also more frequently experienced work demands that exceeded their capacity; this factor and unemployment independently correlated with greater risk of dissatisfaction with life (both p < 0.05). People with Parkinson's disease have an increased risk of dissatisfaction with life. Employment situation is important for general life satisfaction among working-aged individuals. People with Parkinson's disease appear to find it difficult to meet the challenge of achieving a balanced employment situation.

Dietary acid, age, and serum bicarbonate levels among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Amodu, Afolarin; Abramowitz, Matthew K

2013-12-01

Greater dietary acid has been associated with lower serum bicarbonate levels in patients with CKD. Whether this association extends to the general population and if it is modified by age are unknown. This study examined the association of the dietary acid load, estimated by net endogenous acid production, with serum bicarbonate levels in adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. The mean serum bicarbonate was 24.9 mEq/L (SEM=0.1), and the mean estimated net endogenous acid production was 57.4 mEq/d (SEM=0.4). Serum bicarbonate was linearly associated with age, such that the oldest participants had the highest serum bicarbonate levels. After multivariable adjustment, participants in the highest quartile of net endogenous acid production had 0.40 mEq/L (95% confidence interval, -0.55 to -0.26) lower serum bicarbonate and a 33% (95% confidence interval, 3 to 72) higher likelihood of acidosis compared with those participants in the lowest quartile. There was a significant interaction by age of the association of net endogenous acid production with serum bicarbonate (P=0.005). Among participants 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years old, those participants in the highest net endogenous acid production quartile had 0.26 (95% confidence interval, -0.49 to -0.03), 0.60 (95% confidence interval, -0.92 to -0.29), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval, -0.84 to -0.14) mEq/L lower serum bicarbonate, respectively, compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Greater dietary acid is associated with lower serum bicarbonate in the general US population, and the magnitude of this association is greater among middle-aged and elderly persons than younger adults.

Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

2016-09-07

Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

2014-01-01

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

Can the Internet be used to reach parents for family-based childhood obesity interventions?

PubMed

Hohman, Katherine H; Price, Sarah N; Sonneville, Kendrin; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Gortmaker, Steven L; Gillman, Matthew W; Taveras, Elsie M

2012-04-01

This study aimed to identify socioeconomic correlates of computer/Internet use among parents of overweight preschool-aged children. A total of 470 baseline participants in a trial to prevent obesity in children 2 to 6.9 years old with body mass index ≥ 95th percentile or 85th to 95th percentile with one overweight parent were studied. Interviews with parents used Health Information National Trends Survey questions. Overall, 94% of the participants had home computers and 93% reported Internet usage. In adjusted models, parents with ≤ college degree (odds ratio = 4.8; 95% confidence interval = 1.2-18.3) or with household income ≤$50,000 (odds ratio = 7.6; 95% confidence interval = 2.2-26.8) had decreased likelihood of computer ownership. Of parents who reported going online, 63% used Internet to look for health/medical information for themselves and 42% for their children. Parents with ≤ a college degree or with body mass index <25 kg/m(2) were less likely to use Internet. Results support using the Internet for early childhood obesity prevention with enhanced outreach efforts for low socioeconomic status families.

Job strain as a risk factor for leisure-time physical inactivity: an individual-participant meta-analysis of up to 170,000 men and women: the IPD-Work Consortium.

PubMed

Fransson, Eleonor I; Heikkilä, Katriina; Nyberg, Solja T; Zins, Marie; Westerlund, Hugo; Westerholm, Peter; Väänänen, Ari; Virtanen, Marianna; Vahtera, Jussi; Theorell, Töres; Suominen, Sakari; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Siegrist, Johannes; Sabia, Séverine; Rugulies, Reiner; Pentti, Jaana; Oksanen, Tuula; Nordin, Maria; Nielsen, Martin L; Marmot, Michael G; Magnusson Hanson, Linda L; Madsen, Ida E H; Lunau, Thorsten; Leineweber, Constanze; Kumari, Meena; Kouvonen, Anne; Koskinen, Aki; Koskenvuo, Markku; Knutsson, Anders; Kittel, France; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Joensuu, Matti; Houtman, Irene L; Hooftman, Wendela E; Goldberg, Marcel; Geuskens, Goedele A; Ferrie, Jane E; Erbel, Raimund; Dragano, Nico; De Bacquer, Dirk; Clays, Els; Casini, Annalisa; Burr, Hermann; Borritz, Marianne; Bonenfant, Sébastien; Bjorner, Jakob B; Alfredsson, Lars; Hamer, Mark; Batty, G David; Kivimäki, Mika

2012-12-15

Unfavorable work characteristics, such as low job control and too high or too low job demands, have been suggested to increase the likelihood of physical inactivity during leisure time, but this has not been verified in large-scale studies. The authors combined individual-level data from 14 European cohort studies (baseline years from 1985-1988 to 2006-2008) to examine the association between unfavorable work characteristics and leisure-time physical inactivity in a total of 170,162 employees (50% women; mean age, 43.5 years). Of these employees, 56,735 were reexamined after 2-9 years. In cross-sectional analyses, the odds for physical inactivity were 26% higher (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% confidence interval: 1.15, 1.38) for employees with high-strain jobs (low control/high demands) and 21% higher (odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.31) for those with passive jobs (low control/low demands) compared with employees in low-strain jobs (high control/low demands). In prospective analyses restricted to physically active participants, the odds of becoming physically inactive during follow-up were 21% and 20% higher for those with high-strain (odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.32) and passive (odds ratio = 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.30) jobs at baseline. These data suggest that unfavorable work characteristics may have a spillover effect on leisure-time physical activity.

Each procedure matters: threshold for surgeon volume to minimize complications and decrease cost associated with adrenalectomy.

PubMed

Anderson, Kevin L; Thomas, Samantha M; Adam, Mohamed A; Pontius, Lauren N; Stang, Michael T; Scheri, Randall P; Roman, Sanziana A; Sosa, Julie A

2018-01-01

An association has been suggested between increasing surgeon volume and improved patient outcomes, but a threshold has not been defined for what constitutes a "high-volume" adrenal surgeon. Adult patients who underwent adrenalectomy by an identifiable surgeon between 1998-2009 were selected from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample. Logistic regression modeling with restricted cubic splines was utilized to estimate the association between annual surgeon volume and complication rates in order to identify a volume threshold. A total of 3,496 surgeons performed adrenalectomies on 6,712 patients; median annual surgeon volume was 1 case. After adjustment, the likelihood of experiencing a complication decreased with increasing annual surgeon volume up to 5.6 cases (95% confidence interval, 3.27-5.96). After adjustment, patients undergoing resection by low-volume surgeons (<6 cases/year) were more likely to experience complications (odds ratio 1.71, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.31, P = .005), have a greater hospital stay (relative risk 1.46, 95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.70, P = .003), and at increased cost (+26.2%, 95% confidence interval, 12.6-39.9, P = .02). This study suggests that an annual threshold of surgeon volume (≥6 cases/year) that is associated with improved patient outcomes and decreased hospital cost. This volume threshold has implications for quality improvement, surgical referral and reimbursement, and surgical training. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Job Strain as a Risk Factor for Leisure-Time Physical Inactivity: An Individual-Participant Meta-Analysis of Up to 170,000 Men and Women

PubMed Central

Fransson, Eleonor I.; Heikkilä, Katriina; Nyberg, Solja T.; Zins, Marie; Westerlund, Hugo; Westerholm, Peter; Väänänen, Ari; Virtanen, Marianna; Vahtera, Jussi; Theorell, Töres; Suominen, Sakari; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Siegrist, Johannes; Sabia, Séverine; Rugulies, Reiner; Pentti, Jaana; Oksanen, Tuula; Nordin, Maria; Nielsen, Martin L.; Marmot, Michael G.; Magnusson Hanson, Linda L.; Madsen, Ida E. H.; Lunau, Thorsten; Leineweber, Constanze; Kumari, Meena; Kouvonen, Anne; Koskinen, Aki; Koskenvuo, Markku; Knutsson, Anders; Kittel, France; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Joensuu, Matti; Houtman, Irene L.; Hooftman, Wendela E.; Goldberg, Marcel; Geuskens, Goedele A.; Ferrie, Jane E.; Erbel, Raimund; Dragano, Nico; De Bacquer, Dirk; Clays, Els; Casini, Annalisa; Burr, Hermann; Borritz, Marianne; Bonenfant, Sébastien; Bjorner, Jakob B.; Alfredsson, Lars; Hamer, Mark; Batty, G. David; Kivimäki, Mika

2012-01-01

Unfavorable work characteristics, such as low job control and too high or too low job demands, have been suggested to increase the likelihood of physical inactivity during leisure time, but this has not been verified in large-scale studies. The authors combined individual-level data from 14 European cohort studies (baseline years from 1985–1988 to 2006–2008) to examine the association between unfavorable work characteristics and leisure-time physical inactivity in a total of 170,162 employees (50% women; mean age, 43.5 years). Of these employees, 56,735 were reexamined after 2–9 years. In cross-sectional analyses, the odds for physical inactivity were 26% higher (odds ratio = 1.26, 95% confidence interval: 1.15, 1.38) for employees with high-strain jobs (low control/high demands) and 21% higher (odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.31) for those with passive jobs (low control/low demands) compared with employees in low-strain jobs (high control/low demands). In prospective analyses restricted to physically active participants, the odds of becoming physically inactive during follow-up were 21% and 20% higher for those with high-strain (odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.32) and passive (odds ratio = 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.30) jobs at baseline. These data suggest that unfavorable work characteristics may have a spillover effect on leisure-time physical activity. PMID:23144364

Direct bound on the total decay width of the top quark in pp collisions at sqrt[s]=1.96 TeV.

PubMed

Aaltonen, T; Adelman, J; Akimoto, T; Albrow, M G; Alvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Apollinari, G; Apresyan, A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Ashmanskas, W; Attal, A; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Azzurri, P; Badgett, W; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Bartsch, V; Bauer, G; Beauchemin, P-H; Bedeschi, F; Bednar, P; Beecher, D; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Beringer, J; Bhatti, A; Binkley, M; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Blair, R E; Blocker, C; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Boisvert, V; Bolla, G; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brau, B; Bridgeman, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brubaker, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Budd, S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Byrum, K L; Cabrera, S; Calancha, C; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Canepa, A; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavaliere, V; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chang, S H; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chou, J P; Choudalakis, G; Chuang, S H; Chung, K; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciobanu, C I; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Clark, D; Compostella, G; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Copic, K; Cordelli, M; Cortiana, G; Cox, D J; Crescioli, F; Cuenca Almenar, C; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Cully, J C; Dagenhart, D; Datta, M; Davies, T; de Barbaro, P; De Cecco, S; Deisher, A; De Lorenzo, G; Dell'orso, M; Deluca, C; Demortier, L; Deng, J; Deninno, M; Derwent, P F; di Giovanni, G P; Dionisi, C; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Donini, J; Dorigo, T; Dube, S; Efron, J; Elagin, A; Erbacher, R; Errede, D; Errede, S; Eusebi, R; Fang, H C; Farrington, S; Fedorko, W T; Feild, R G; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Ferrazza, C; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Galyardt, J; Garberson, F; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Genser, K; Gerberich, H; Gerdes, D; Gessler, A; Giagu, S; Giakoumopoulou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Gimmell, J L; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giordani, M; Giromini, P; Giunta, M; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldschmidt, N; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Gresele, A; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Grundler, U; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Gunay-Unalan, Z; Haber, C; Hahn, K; Hahn, S R; Halkiadakis, E; Han, B-Y; Han, J Y; Handler, R; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, D; Hare, M; Harper, S; Harr, R F; Harris, R M; Hartz, M; Hatakeyama, K; Hauser, J; Hays, C; Heck, M; Heijboer, A; Heinemann, B; Heinrich, J; Henderson, C; Herndon, M; Heuser, J; Hewamanage, S; Hidas, D; Hill, C S; Hirschbuehl, D; Hocker, A; Hou, S; Houlden, M; Hsu, S-C; Huffman, B T; Hughes, R E; Husemann, U; Huston, J; Incandela, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; James, E; Jayatilaka, B; Jeon, E J; Jha, M K; Jindariani, S; Johnson, W; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Jung, J E; Junk, T R; Kamon, T; Kar, D; Karchin, P E; Kato, Y; Kephart, R; Keung, J; Khotilovich, V; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S B; Kim, S H; Kim, Y K; Kimura, N; Kirsch, L; Klimenko, S; Knuteson, B; Ko, B R; Koay, S A; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotwal, A V; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Krop, D; Krumnack, N; Kruse, M; Krutelyov, V; Kubo, T; Kuhr, T; Kulkarni, N P; Kurata, M; Kusakabe, Y; Kwang, S; Laasanen, A T; Lami, S; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lander, R L; Lannon, K; Lath, A; Latino, G; Lazzizzera, I; Lecompte, T; Lee, E; Lee, H S; Lee, S W; Leone, S; Lewis, J D; Lin, C S; Linacre, J; Lindgren, M; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Litvintsev, D O; Liu, C; Liu, T; Lockyer, N S; Loginov, A; Loreti, M; Lovas, L; Lu, R-S; Lucchesi, D; Lueck, J; Luci, C; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lyons, L; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Lytken, E; Mack, P; Macqueen, D; Madrak, R; Maeshima, K; Makhoul, K; Maki, T; Maksimovic, P; Malde, S; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A; Margaroli, F; Marino, C; Marino, C P; Martin, A; Martin, V; Martínez, M; Martínez-Ballarín, R; Maruyama, T; Mastrandrea, P; Masubuchi, T; Mattson, M E; Mazzanti, P; McFarland, K S; McIntyre, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Menzione, A; Merkel, P; Mesropian, C; Miao, T; Miladinovic, N; Miller, R; Mills, C; Milnik, M; Mitra, A; Mitselmakher, G; Miyake, H; Moggi, N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M J; Morlok, J; Movilla Fernandez, P; Mülmenstädt, J; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Mumford, R; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Nagano, A; Naganoma, J; Nakamura, K; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Necula, V; Neu, C; Neubauer, M S; Nielsen, J; Nodulman, L; Norman, M; Norniella, O; Nurse, E; Oakes, L; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Orava, R; Osterberg, K; Pagan Griso, S; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Papadimitriou, V; Papaikonomou, A; Paramonov, A A; Parks, B; Pashapour, S; Patrick, J; Pauletta, G; Paulini, M; Paus, C; Pellett, D E; Penzo, A; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Pianori, E; Pinera, L; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Poukhov, O; Pounder, N; Prakoshyn, F; Pronko, A; Proudfoot, J; Ptohos, F; Pueschel, E; Punzi, G; Pursley, J; Rademacker, J; Rahaman, A; Ramakrishnan, V; Ranjan, N; Redondo, I; Reisert, B; Rekovic, V; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Richter, S; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodrigo, T; Rodriguez, T; Rogers, E; Rolli, S; Roser, R; Rossi, M; Rossin, R; Roy, P; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Saarikko, H; Safonov, A; Sakumoto, W K; Saltó, O; Santi, L; Sarkar, S; Sartori, L; Sato, K; Savoy-Navarro, A; Scheidle, T; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, A; Schmidt, E E; Schmidt, M A; Schmidt, M P; Schmitt, M; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scott, A L; Scribano, A; Scuri, F; Sedov, A; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sexton-Kennedy, L; Sfyrla, A; Shalhout, S Z; Shears, T; Shepard, P F; Sherman, D; Shimojima, M; Shiraishi, S; Shochet, M; Shon, Y; Shreyber, I; Sidoti, A; Sinervo, P; Sisakyan, A; Slaughter, A J; Slaunwhite, J; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Snihur, R; Soha, A; Somalwar, S; Sorin, V; Spalding, J; Spreitzer, T; Squillacioti, P; Stanitzki, M; St Denis, R; Stelzer, B; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Stuart, D; Suh, J S; Sukhanov, A; Suslov, I; Suzuki, T; Taffard, A; Takashima, R; Takeuchi, Y; Tanaka, R; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Terashi, K; Thom, J; Thompson, A S; Thompson, G A; Thomson, E; Tipton, P; Tiwari, V; Tkaczyk, S; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Totaro, P; Tourneur, S; Tu, Y; Turini, N; Ukegawa, F; Vallecorsa, S; van Remortel, N; Varganov, A; Vataga, E; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Veszpremi, V; Vidal, M; Vidal, R; Vila, I; Vilar, R; Vine, T; Vogel, M; Volobouev, I; Volpi, G; Würthwein, F; Wagner, P; Wagner, R G; Wagner, R L; Wagner-Kuhr, J; Wagner, W; Wakisaka, T; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Warburton, A; Waters, D; Weinberger, M; Wester, W C; Whitehouse, B; Whiteson, D; Wicklund, A B; Wicklund, E; Williams, G; Williams, H H; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, C; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wynne, S M; Xie, S; Yagil, A; Yamamoto, K; Yamaoka, J; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W M; Yeh, G P; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanello, L; Zanetti, A; Zaw, I; Zhang, X; Zheng, Y; Zucchelli, S

2009-01-30

We present the first direct experimental bound on the total decay width of the top quark, Gamma(t), using 955 pb(-1) of the Tevatron's pp collisions recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We identify 253 top-antitop pair candidate events. The distribution of reconstructed top quark mass from these events is fitted to templates representing different values of the top quark width. Using a confidence interval based on likelihood-ratio ordering, we extract an upper limit at 95% C.L. of Gamma(t)<13.1 GeV for an assumed top quark mass of 175 GeV/c(2).

Variation in Cesarean Birth Rates by Labor and Delivery Nurses.

PubMed

Edmonds, Joyce K; O'Hara, Michele; Clarke, Sean P; Shah, Neel T

To examine variation in the cesarean birth rates of women cared for by labor and delivery nurses. Retrospective cohort study. One high-volume labor and delivery unit at an academic medical center in a major metropolitan area. Labor and delivery nurses who cared for nulliparous women who gave birth to term, singleton fetuses in vertex presentation. Data were extracted from electronic hospital birth records from January 1, 2013 through June 30, 2015. Cesarean rates for individual nurses were calculated based on the number of women they attended who gave birth by cesarean. Nurses were grouped into quartiles by their cesarean rates, and the effect of these rates on the likelihood of cesarean birth was estimated by a logit regression model adjusting for patient-level characteristics and clustering of births within nurses. Seventy-two nurses attended 3,031 births. The mean nurse cesarean rate was 26% (95% confidence interval [23.9, 28.1]) and ranged from 8.3% to 48%. The adjusted odds of cesarean for births attended by nurses in the highest quartile was nearly 3 times (odds ratio = 2.73, 95% confidence interval [2.3, 3.3]) greater than for births attended by nurses in the lowest quartile. The labor and delivery nurse assigned to a woman may influence the likelihood of cesarean birth. Nurse-level cesarean birth data could be used to design practice improvement initiatives to improve nurse performance. More precise measurement of the relative influence of nurses on mode of birth is needed. Copyright © 2017 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of movie smoking exposure and team sports participation on established smoking.

PubMed

Adachi-Mejia, Anna M; Primack, Brian A; Beach, Michael L; Titus-Ernstoff, Linda; Longacre, Meghan R; Weiss, Julia E; Dalton, Madeline A

2009-07-01

To examine the joint effects of movie smoking exposure and team sports participation on established smoking. Longitudinal study. School- and telephone-based surveys in New Hampshire and Vermont between September 1999 through November 1999 and February 2006 through February 2007. A total of 2048 youths aged 16 to 21 years at follow-up. Main Exposures Baseline movie smoking exposure categorized in quartiles assessed when respondents were aged 9 to 14 years and team sports participation assessed when respondents were aged 16 to 21 years. Main Outcome Measure Established smoking (having smoked > or =100 cigarettes in one's lifetime) at follow-up. At follow-up, 353 respondents (17.2%) were established smokers. Exposure to the highest quartile of movie smoking compared with the lowest increased the likelihood of established smoking (odds ratio = 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-2.57), and team sports nonparticipants compared with participants were twice as likely to be established smokers (odds ratio = 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-2.74). The joint effects of movie smoking exposure and team sports participation revealed that at each quartile of movie smoking exposure, the odds of established smoking were greater for team sports nonparticipants than for participants. We saw a dose-response relationship of movie smoking exposure for established smoking only among team sports participants. Team sports participation clearly plays a protective role against established smoking, even in the face of exposure to movie smoking. However, movie smoking exposure increases the risk of established smoking among both team sports participants and nonparticipants. Parents, teachers, coaches, and clinicians should be aware that encouraging team sports participation in tandem with minimizing early exposure to movie smoking may offer the greatest likelihood of preventing youth smoking.

Influence of Movie Smoking Exposure and Team Sports Participation on Established Smoking

PubMed Central

Adachi-Mejia, Anna M.; Primack, Brian A.; Beach, Michael L.; Titus-Ernstoff, Linda; Longacre, Meghan R.; Weiss, Julia E.; Dalton, Madeline A.

2010-01-01

Objective To examine the joint effects of movie smoking exposure and team sports participation on established smoking. Design Longitudinal study. Setting School- and telephone-based surveys in New Hampshire and Vermont between September 1999 through November 1999 and February 2006 through February 2007. Participants A total of 2048 youths aged 16 to 21 years at follow-up. Main Exposures Baseline movie smoking exposure categorized in quartiles assessed when respondents were aged 9 to 14 years and team sports participation assessed when respondents were aged 16 to 21 years. Main Outcome Measure Established smoking (having smoked ≥100 cigarettes in one’s lifetime) at follow-up. Results At follow-up, 353 respondents (17.2%) were established smokers. Exposure to the highest quartile of movie smoking compared with the lowest increased the likelihood of established smoking (odds ratio=1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.03–2.57), and team sports nonparticipants compared with participants were twice as likely to be established smokers (odds ratio=2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.47–2.74). The joint effects of movie smoking exposure and team sports participation revealed that at each quartile of movie smoking exposure, the odds of established smoking were greater for team sports nonparticipants than for participants. We saw a dose-response relationship of movie smoking exposure for established smoking only among team sports participants. Conclusions Team sports participation clearly plays a protective role against established smoking, even in the face of exposure to movie smoking. However, movie smoking exposure increases the risk of established smoking among both team sports participants and nonparticipants. Parents, teachers, coaches, and clinicians should be aware that encouraging team sports participation in tandem with minimizing early exposure to movie smoking may offer the greatest likelihood of preventing youth smoking. PMID:19581547

Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

DOEpatents

Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

2014-03-18

A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

Generalized likelihood ratios for quantitative diagnostic test scores.

PubMed

Tandberg, D; Deely, J J; O'Malley, A J

1997-11-01

The reduction of quantitative diagnostic test scores to the dichotomous case is a wasteful and unnecessary simplification in the era of high-speed computing. Physicians could make better use of the information embedded in quantitative test results if modern generalized curve estimation techniques were applied to the likelihood functions of Bayes' theorem. Hand calculations could be completely avoided and computed graphical summaries provided instead. Graphs showing posttest probability of disease as a function of pretest probability with confidence intervals (POD plots) would enhance acceptance of these techniques if they were immediately available at the computer terminal when test results were retrieved. Such constructs would also provide immediate feedback to physicians when a valueless test had been ordered.

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SLDAssay: A software package and web tool for analyzing limiting dilution assays.

PubMed

Trumble, Ilana M; Allmon, Andrew G; Archin, Nancie M; Rigdon, Joseph; Francis, Owen; Baldoni, Pedro L; Hudgens, Michael G

2017-11-01

Serial limiting dilution (SLD) assays are used in many areas of infectious disease related research. This paper presents SLDAssay, a free and publicly available R software package and web tool for analyzing data from SLD assays. SLDAssay computes the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for the concentration of target cells, with corresponding exact and asymptotic confidence intervals. Exact and asymptotic goodness of fit p-values, and a bias-corrected (BC) MLE are also provided. No other publicly available software currently implements the BC MLE or the exact methods. For validation of SLDAssay, results from Myers et al. (1994) are replicated. Simulations demonstrate the BC MLE is less biased than the MLE. Additionally, simulations demonstrate that exact methods tend to give better confidence interval coverage and goodness-of-fit tests with lower type I error than the asymptotic methods. Additional advantages of using exact methods are also discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Workplace violence investigations and activation of the threat management teams in a multinational corporation.

PubMed

Peek-Asa, Corinne; Casteel, Carri; Rugala, Eugene; Romano, Steve; Ramirez, Marizen

2013-11-01

We examined threat management investigations conducted by a large multinational company. The company provided a database, removing any identifiers, of investigations by the corporate Threat Management Teams in 2009 and 2010. Rates were calculated using worker population data. During the 2-year study period, the company investigated threat management cases at a rate of 13.9 per 10,000 employees per year. Cases that activated a Threat Management Team were more likely to lead to corrective action (odds ratio = 2.0; 95% confidence interval = 1.08 to 3.87) and referral to the Employee Assistance Program (odds ratio = 4.8; 95% confidence interval = 3.00 to 7.77), but were not related to likelihood of termination. When the multidisciplinary teams were involved, cases were more likely to result in some type of action but were not more likely to lead to termination.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shantaram, S. Pai; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parametes of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by using the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Sex Differences in the Association Between Pain and Injurious Falls in Older Adults: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Rizzuto, Debora; Calderón-Larrañaga, Amaia; Johnell, Kristina

2017-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether there are sex differences in the association between pain and incident injurious falls. A total of 2,934 people (ages ≥60 years) from the population-based Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (2001–2004) participated. Participants were followed up for 3 and 10 years for falls leading to hospitalization or outpatient care. Data were analyzed with flexible parametric survival models that adjusted for potential confounders. During the first 3 years of follow-up, 67 men and 194 women experienced an injurious fall, and over 10 years of follow up, 203 men and 548 women experienced such a fall. In men, the presence of pain, having pain that was at least mild, having pain that affected several daily activities, and having daily pain all significantly increased the likelihood of incurring an injurious fall during the 3-year follow-up period. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios ranged from 1.78 (95% confidence interval: 1.00, 3.15) for the presence of pain to 2.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.41, 5.93) for several daily activities’ being affected by pain. Results for the 10-year follow-up period were similar. No significant associations were detected in women. Although pain is less prevalent in men than in women, its impact on risk of injurious falls seems to be greater in men. PMID:28535169

Likelihood of home death associated with local rates of home birth: influence of local area healthcare preferences on site of death.

PubMed

Silveira, Maria J; Copeland, Laurel A; Feudtner, Chris

2006-07-01

We tested whether local cultural and social values regarding the use of health care are associated with the likelihood of home death, using variation in local rates of home births as a proxy for geographic variation in these values. For each of 351110 adult decedents in Washington state who died from 1989 through 1998, we calculated the home birth rate in each zip code during the year of death and then used multivariate regression modeling to estimate the relation between the likelihood of home death and the local rate of home births. Individuals residing in local areas with higher home birth rates had greater adjusted likelihood of dying at home (odds ratio [OR]=1.04 for each percentage point increase in home birth rate; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03, 1.05). Moreover, the likelihood of dying at home increased with local wealth (OR=1.04 per $10000; 95% CI=1.02, 1.06) but decreased with local hospital bed availability (OR=0.96 per 1000 beds; 95% CI=0.95, 0.97). The likelihood of home death is associated with local rates of home births, suggesting the influence of health care use preferences.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Thomas W

2018-05-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

Care Transitions After Acute Myocardial Infarction for Transferred-In Versus Direct-Arrival Patients.

PubMed

Vora, Amit N; Peterson, Eric D; Hellkamp, Anne S; Sutton, Nadia R; Panacek, Edward; Thomas, Laine; de Lemos, James A; Wang, Tracy Y

2016-03-01

Many patients in the United States require transfer from one hospital to another for acute myocardial infarction (MI) care. How well these transferred-in patients are transitioned back to their local community is unknown. We used linked Medicare claims data to examine postdischarge outcomes of 39 136 patients with acute MI aged ≥65 years discharged alive from 451 US hospitals in Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network Registry-Get With the Guidelines. Multivariable Cox modeling was used to compare the likelihood of outpatient clinic follow-up and risks of all-cause mortality and all-cause or cardiovascular readmission at 30 days post MI between transferred-in and direct-arrival patients. From 2007 to 2010, 14 060 of 39 136 patients (36%) required interhospital transfer for acute MI care, traveling a median of 43 miles (interquartile range, 27-68 miles; 77.6 km [interquartile range, 48.2-122.6 km]). Compared with those arriving directly, transferred-in patients with MI were slightly younger (median age, 73 versus 74; P<0.01) but less likely to have previous MI, heart failure, and previous revascularization than direct-arrival patients. Relative to direct-arrival patients, those transferred-in had a lower likelihood of outpatient follow-up within 30 days post discharge (risk-adjusted incidence, 69.9% versus 78.2%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.92) and higher adjusted 30-day all-cause and cardiovascular readmission risks (14.5% versus 14.0%; HRall-cause, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.15 and 9.5% versus 9.1%; HRcardiovascular, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.22). In contrast, risk-adjusted 30-day mortality was similar between transferred-in and direct arrivals (1.6% versus 1.6%; HR, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.27). Transferred-in patients with acute MI are less likely to have outpatient clinic follow-up within 30 days and more likely to be readmitted within the first 30 days post discharge compared with direct-arrival patients. These results indicate room for improvement in the safe and seamless transition of care for transferred patients with MI traveling back to their home environments. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Systematic reviews need to consider applicability to disadvantaged populations: inter-rater agreement for a health equity plausibility algorithm

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Systematic reviews have been challenged to consider effects on disadvantaged groups. A priori specification of subgroup analyses is recommended to increase the credibility of these analyses. This study aimed to develop and assess inter-rater agreement for an algorithm for systematic review authors to predict whether differences in effect measures are likely for disadvantaged populations relative to advantaged populations (only relative effect measures were addressed). Methods A health equity plausibility algorithm was developed using clinimetric methods with three items based on literature review, key informant interviews and methodology studies. The three items dealt with the plausibility of differences in relative effects across sex or socioeconomic status (SES) due to: 1) patient characteristics; 2) intervention delivery (i.e., implementation); and 3) comparators. Thirty-five respondents (consisting of clinicians, methodologists and research users) assessed the likelihood of differences across sex and SES for ten systematic reviews with these questions. We assessed inter-rater reliability using Fleiss multi-rater kappa. Results The proportion agreement was 66% for patient characteristics (95% confidence interval: 61%-71%), 67% for intervention delivery (95% confidence interval: 62% to 72%) and 55% for the comparator (95% confidence interval: 50% to 60%). Inter-rater kappa, assessed with Fleiss kappa, ranged from 0 to 0.199, representing very low agreement beyond chance. Conclusions Users of systematic reviews rated that important differences in relative effects across sex and socioeconomic status were plausible for a range of individual and population-level interventions. However, there was very low inter-rater agreement for these assessments. There is an unmet need for discussion of plausibility of differential effects in systematic reviews. Increased consideration of external validity and applicability to different populations and settings is warranted in systematic reviews to meet this need. PMID:23253632

Systematic reviews need to consider applicability to disadvantaged populations: inter-rater agreement for a health equity plausibility algorithm.

PubMed

Welch, Vivian; Brand, Kevin; Kristjansson, Elizabeth; Smylie, Janet; Wells, George; Tugwell, Peter

2012-12-19

Systematic reviews have been challenged to consider effects on disadvantaged groups. A priori specification of subgroup analyses is recommended to increase the credibility of these analyses. This study aimed to develop and assess inter-rater agreement for an algorithm for systematic review authors to predict whether differences in effect measures are likely for disadvantaged populations relative to advantaged populations (only relative effect measures were addressed). A health equity plausibility algorithm was developed using clinimetric methods with three items based on literature review, key informant interviews and methodology studies. The three items dealt with the plausibility of differences in relative effects across sex or socioeconomic status (SES) due to: 1) patient characteristics; 2) intervention delivery (i.e., implementation); and 3) comparators. Thirty-five respondents (consisting of clinicians, methodologists and research users) assessed the likelihood of differences across sex and SES for ten systematic reviews with these questions. We assessed inter-rater reliability using Fleiss multi-rater kappa. The proportion agreement was 66% for patient characteristics (95% confidence interval: 61%-71%), 67% for intervention delivery (95% confidence interval: 62% to 72%) and 55% for the comparator (95% confidence interval: 50% to 60%). Inter-rater kappa, assessed with Fleiss kappa, ranged from 0 to 0.199, representing very low agreement beyond chance. Users of systematic reviews rated that important differences in relative effects across sex and socioeconomic status were plausible for a range of individual and population-level interventions. However, there was very low inter-rater agreement for these assessments. There is an unmet need for discussion of plausibility of differential effects in systematic reviews. Increased consideration of external validity and applicability to different populations and settings is warranted in systematic reviews to meet this need.

Assessing Interval Estimation Methods for Hill Model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Hill model of concentration-response is ubiquitous in toxicology, perhaps because its parameters directly relate to biologically significant metrics of toxicity such as efficacy and potency. Point estimates of these parameters obtained through least squares regression or maximum likelihood are commonly used in high-throughput risk assessment, but such estimates typically fail to include reliable information concerning confidence in (or precision of) the estimates. To address this issue, we examined methods for assessing uncertainty in Hill model parameter estimates derived from concentration-response data. In particular, using a sample of ToxCast concentration-response data sets, we applied four methods for obtaining interval estimates that are based on asymptotic theory, bootstrapping (two varieties), and Bayesian parameter estimation, and then compared the results. These interval estimation methods generally did not agree, so we devised a simulation study to assess their relative performance. We generated simulated data by constructing four statistical error models capable of producing concentration-response data sets comparable to those observed in ToxCast. We then applied the four interval estimation methods to the simulated data and compared the actual coverage of the interval estimates to the nominal coverage (e.g., 95%) in order to quantify performance of each of the methods in a variety of cases (i.e., different values of the true Hill model paramet

Dietary Acid, Age, and Serum Bicarbonate Levels among Adults in the United States

PubMed Central

Amodu, Afolarin

2013-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Greater dietary acid has been associated with lower serum bicarbonate levels in patients with CKD. Whether this association extends to the general population and if it is modified by age are unknown. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This study examined the association of the dietary acid load, estimated by net endogenous acid production, with serum bicarbonate levels in adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2004. Results The mean serum bicarbonate was 24.9 mEq/L (SEM=0.1), and the mean estimated net endogenous acid production was 57.4 mEq/d (SEM=0.4). Serum bicarbonate was linearly associated with age, such that the oldest participants had the highest serum bicarbonate levels. After multivariable adjustment, participants in the highest quartile of net endogenous acid production had 0.40 mEq/L (95% confidence interval, −0.55 to −0.26) lower serum bicarbonate and a 33% (95% confidence interval, 3 to 72) higher likelihood of acidosis compared with those participants in the lowest quartile. There was a significant interaction by age of the association of net endogenous acid production with serum bicarbonate (P=0.005). Among participants 20–39, 40–59, and ≥60 years old, those participants in the highest net endogenous acid production quartile had 0.26 (95% confidence interval, −0.49 to −0.03), 0.60 (95% confidence interval, −0.92 to −0.29), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval, −0.84 to −0.14) mEq/L lower serum bicarbonate, respectively, compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Conclusion Greater dietary acid is associated with lower serum bicarbonate in the general US population, and the magnitude of this association is greater among middle-aged and elderly persons than younger adults. PMID:24052219

Time does not heal all wounds: older adults who experienced childhood adversities have higher odds of mood, anxiety, and personality disorders.

PubMed

Raposo, Sarah M; Mackenzie, Corey S; Henriksen, Christine A; Afifi, Tracie O

2014-11-01

We aimed to examine the prevalence of several types of childhood adversity across adult cohorts, whether age moderates the effect of childhood adversity on mental health, the relationship between childhood adversity and psychopathology among older adults, the dose-response relationship between number of types of childhood adversities and mental disorders in later life, and whether lifetime mental health treatment reduces the odds of psychopathology among older survivors of childhood adversity. In a population-based, cross-sectional study on a nationally representative U.S. sample, we studied 34,653 community-dwelling Americans 20 years and older, including 7,080 adults 65 years and older from Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Trained lay interviewers assessed past-year mood and anxiety disorders and lifetime personality disorders. Participants self-reported childhood adversity based on questions from the Adverse Childhood Experiences Study. Childhood adversity was prevalent across five age cohorts. In our adjusted models, age did not moderate the effect of childhood adversity on mental disorders. Older adults who experienced childhood adversity had higher odds of having mood (odds ratio: 1.73; 95% confidence interval: 1.32-2.28), anxiety (odds ratio: 1.48; 95% confidence interval: 1.20-1.83), and personality disorders (odds ratio: 2.11; 95% confidence interval: 1.75-2.54) after adjusting for covariates. An increasing number of types of childhood adversities was associated with higher odds of personality disorders and somewhat higher odds of anxiety disorders. Treatment-seeking was associated with a reduced likelihood of anxiety and, especially, mood disorders in older adult childhood adversity survivors. These results emphasize the importance of preventing childhood adversity and intervening once it occurs to avoid the negative mental health effects that can last into old age. Copyright © 2014 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the mass of the local group

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

González, Roberto E.; Kravtsov, Andrey V.; Gnedin, Nickolay Y., E-mail: regonzar@astro.puc.cl

2014-10-01

We use recent proper motion measurements of the tangential velocity of M31, along with its radial velocity and distance, to derive the likelihood of the sum of halo masses of the Milky Way and M31. This is done using a sample of halo pairs in the Bolshoi cosmological simulation of ΛCDM cosmology selected to match the properties and the environment of the Local Group. The resulting likelihood gives an estimate of the sum of the masses of M {sub MW,} {sub 200c} + M {sub M31,} {sub 200c} = 2.40{sub −1.05}{sup +1.95}×10{sup 12} M{sub ⊙} (90% confidence interval). This estimatemore » is consistent with individual mass estimates for the Milky Way and M31 and is consistent, albeit somewhat on the low side, with the mass estimated using the timing argument. We show that although the timing argument is unbiased on average for all pairs, for pairs constrained to have radial and tangential velocities similar to that of the Local Group the argument overestimates the sum of masses by a factor of 1.6. Using similar technique, we estimate the total dark matter mass enclosed within 1 Mpc from the Local Group barycenter to be M{sub LG}(r<1 Mpc)=4.2{sub −2.0}{sup +3.4}×10{sup 12} M{sub ⊙} (90% confidence interval).« less

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Effects of mass media campaign exposure intensity and durability on quit attempts in a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Wakefield, M A; Spittal, M J; Yong, H-H; Durkin, S J; Borland, R

2011-12-01

To assess the extent to which intensity and timing of televised anti-smoking advertising emphasizing the serious harms of smoking influences quit attempts. Using advertising gross rating points (GRPs), we estimated exposure to tobacco control and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) advertising in the 3, 4-6, 7-9 and 10-12 months prior to follow-up of a replenished cohort of 3037 Australian smokers during 2002-08. Using generalized estimating equations, we related the intensity and timing of advertising exposure from each source to the likelihood of making a quit attempt in the 3 months prior to follow-up. Tobacco control advertising in the 3-month period prior to follow-up, but not in more distant past periods, was related to a higher likelihood of making a quit attempt. Each 1000 GRP increase per quarter was associated with an 11% increase in making a quit attempt [odds ratio (OR) = 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.19, P = 0.009)]. NRT advertising was unrelated to quit attempts. Tobacco control advertising emphasizing the serious harms of smoking is associated with short-term increases in the likelihood of smokers making a quit attempt. Repeated cycles of higher intensity tobacco control media campaigns are needed to sustain high levels of quit attempts.

Return to military weight standards after pregnancy in active duty working women: comparison of marine corps vs. navy.

PubMed

Greer, Joy A; Zelig, Craig M; Choi, Kenny K; Rankins, Nicole Calloway; Chauhan, Suneet P; Magann, Everett F

2012-08-01

To compare the likelihood of being within weight standards before and after pregnancy between United States Marine Corps (USMC) and Navy (USN) active duty women (ADW). ADW with singleton gestations who delivered at a USMC base were followed for 6 months to determine likelihood of returning to military weight standards. Odds ratio (OR), adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated; p < 0.05 was considered significant. Similar proportions of USN and USMC ADW were within body weight standards one year prior to pregnancy (79%, 97%) and at first prenatal visit (69%, 96%), respectively. However, USMC ADW were significantly more likely to be within body weight standards at 3 months (AOR 4.30,1.28-14.43) and 6 months after delivery (AOR 9.94, 1.53-64.52) than USN ADW. Weight gained during pregnancy did not differ significantly for the two groups (40.4 lbs vs 44.2 lbs, p = 0.163). The likelihood of spontaneous vaginal delivery was significantly higher (OR 2.52, 1.20-5.27) and the mean birth weight was significantly lower (p = 0.0036) among USMC ADW as compared to USN ADW. Being within weight standards differs significantly for USMC and USN ADW after pregnancy.

Comparative Outcome Analysis of Penicillin-Based Versus Fluoroquinolone-Based Antibiotic Therapy for Community-Acquired Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Wang, Chi-Chuan; Lin, Chia-Hui; Lin, Kuan-Yin; Chuang, Yu-Chung; Sheng, Wang-Huei

2016-01-01

Abstract Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common but potentially life-threatening condition, but limited information exists on the effectiveness of fluoroquinolones compared to β-lactams in outpatient settings. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and outcomes of penicillins versus respiratory fluoroquinolones for CAP at outpatient clinics. This was a claim-based retrospective cohort study. Patients aged 20 years or older with at least 1 new pneumonia treatment episode were included, and the index penicillin or respiratory fluoroquinolone therapies for a pneumonia episode were at least 5 days in duration. The 2 groups were matched by propensity scores. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare the rates of hospitalizations/emergence service visits and 30-day mortality. A logistic model was used to compare the likelihood of treatment failure between the 2 groups. After propensity score matching, 2622 matched pairs were included in the final model. The likelihood of treatment failure of fluoroquinolone-based therapy was lower than that of penicillin-based therapy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 0.77–0.99), but no differences were found in hospitalization/emergence service (ES) visits (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.27; 95% CI, 0.92–1.74) and 30-day mortality (adjusted HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.30–1.62) between the 2 groups. The likelihood of treatment failure of fluoroquinolone-based therapy was lower than that of penicillin-based therapy for CAP on an outpatient clinic basis. However, this effect may be marginal. Further investigation into the comparative effectiveness of these 2 treatment options is warranted. PMID:26871827

Associations Between Perceived Race-based Discrimination and Contraceptive Use Among Women Veterans in the ECUUN Study.

PubMed

MacDonald, Serena; Hausmann, Leslie R M; Sileanu, Florentina E; Zhao, Xinhua; Mor, Maria K; Borrero, Sonya

2017-09-01

To describe perceived race-based discrimination in Veterans Affairs (VA) health care settings and assess its associations with contraceptive use among a sample of women Veterans. This study used data from a national telephone survey of women Veterans aged 18-44 receiving health care in VA who were at risk of unintended pregnancy. Participants were asked about their perceptions of race-based discrimination while seeking VA health care and about their contraceptive use at last heterosexual intercourse. Logistic and multinomial regression analyses were used to examine associations between perceived race-based discrimination with use of prescription contraception. In our sample of 1341 women Veterans, 7.9% report perceived race-based discrimination when receiving VA care, with blacks and Hispanics reporting higher levels of perceived discrimination than white women (11.3% and 11.2% vs. 4.4%; P<0.001). In logistic and multinomial regression analyses adjusting for race/ethnicity, age, income, marital status, parity, and insurance, women who perceived race-based discrimination were less likely to use any prescription birth control than women who did not (odds ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.00), with the largest difference seen in rates of intrauterine device or implant use (odds ratio, 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.79). In this national sample of women Veterans, over 10% of racial/ethnic minority women perceived race-based discrimination when receiving care in VA settings, and perceived racial/ethnic discrimination was associated with lower likelihood of prescription contraception use, especially intrauterine devices and implants. VA efforts to enhance respectful interactions may not only improve patient health care experiences, but also represent an opportunity to improve reproductive health outcomes for women Veterans.

One fish, two fish, red fish, blue fish: effects of price frames, brand names, and choice set size on Medicare Part D insurance plan decisions.

PubMed

Barnes, Andrew J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Wood, Stacey; Liu, Pi-Ju; Rice, Thomas

2012-08-01

Because many seniors choose Medicare Part D plans offering poorer coverage at greater cost, the authors examined the effect of price frames, brand names, and choice set size on participants' ability to choose the lowest cost plan. A 2×2×2 within-subjects design was used with 126 participants aged 18 to 91 years old. Mouselab, a web-based program, allowed participants to choose drug plans across eight trials that varied using numeric or symbolic prices, real or fictitious drug plan names, and three or nine drug plan options. Results from the multilevel models suggest numeric versus symbolic prices decreased the likelihood of choosing the lowest cost plan (-8.0 percentage points, 95% confidence interval=-14.7 to -0.9). The likelihood of choosing the lowest cost plan decreased as the amount of information increased suggesting that decision cues operated independently and collectively when selecting a drug plan. Redesigning the current Medicare Part D plan decision environment could improve seniors' drug plan choices.

Prevalence, Age Profile, and Associated Risk Factors for Hymenolepis nana Infection in a Large Population-Based Study in Northern Peru.

PubMed

Vilchez Barreto, Percy M; Gamboa, Ricardo; Santivañez, Saul; O'Neal, Seth E; Muro, Claudio; Lescano, Andrés G; Moyano, Luz-Maria; Gonzálvez, Guillermo; García, Hector H

2017-08-01

Hymenolepis nana , the dwarf tapeworm, is a common intestinal infection of children worldwide. We evaluated infection and risk factor data that were previously collected from 14,761 children aged 2-15 years during a large-scale program in northern Peru. We found that 1,124 of 14,761 children (7.61%) had H. nana infection, a likely underestimate given that only a single stool sample was examined by microscopy for diagnosis. The strongest association with infection was lack of adequate water (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 2.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.82-2.48) and sanitation infrastructure in the house (aPR 1.94, 95% CI 1.64-2.29). One quarter of those tested did not have a bathroom or latrine at home, which doubled their likelihood of infection. Similarly, one quarter did not have piped public water to the house, which also increased the likelihood of infection. Continued efforts to improve access to basic water and sanitation services will likely reduce the burden of infection in children for this and other intestinal infections.

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Cost-Effectiveness of Antivenoms for Snakebite Envenoming in 16 Countries in West Africa.

PubMed

Hamza, Muhammad; Idris, Maryam A; Maiyaki, Musa B; Lamorde, Mohammed; Chippaux, Jean-Philippe; Warrell, David A; Kuznik, Andreas; Habib, Abdulrazaq G

2016-03-01

Snakebite poisoning is a significant medical problem in agricultural societies in Sub Saharan Africa. Antivenom (AV) is the standard treatment, and we assessed the cost-effectiveness of making it available in 16 countries in West Africa. We determined the cost-effectiveness of AV based on a decision-tree model from a public payer perspective. Specific AVs included in the model were Antivipmyn, FAV Afrique, EchiTab-G and EchiTab-Plus. We derived inputs from the literature which included: type of snakes causing bites (carpet viper (Echis species)/non-carpet viper), AV effectiveness against death, mortality without AV, probability of Early Adverse Reactions (EAR), likelihood of death from EAR, average age at envenomation in years, anticipated remaining life span and likelihood of amputation. Costs incurred by the victims include: costs of confirming and evaluating envenomation, AV acquisition, routine care, AV transportation logistics, hospital admission and related transportation costs, management of AV EAR compared to the alternative of free snakebite care with ineffective or no AV. Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) were assessed as the cost per death averted and the cost per Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALY) averted. Probabilistic Sensitivity Analyses (PSA) using Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain 95% Confidence Intervals of ICERs. The cost/death averted for the 16 countries of interest ranged from $1,997 in Guinea Bissau to $6,205 for Liberia and Sierra Leone. The cost/DALY averted ranged from $83 (95% Confidence Interval: $36-$240) for Benin Republic to $281 ($159-457) for Sierra-Leone. In all cases, the base-case cost/DALY averted estimate fell below the commonly accepted threshold of one time per capita GDP, suggesting that AV is highly cost-effective for the treatment of snakebite in all 16 WA countries. The findings were consistent even with variations of inputs in 1-way sensitivity analyses. In addition, the PSA showed that in the majority of iterations ranging from 97.3% in Liberia to 100% in Cameroun, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Nigeria and Senegal, our model results yielded an ICER that fell below the threshold of one time per capita GDP, thus, indicating a high degree of confidence in our results. Therapy for SBE with AV in countries of WA is highly cost-effective at commonly accepted thresholds. Broadening access to effective AVs in rural communities in West Africa is a priority.

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith's method provide nominal or close to nominal coverage when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05), as is the case in most community intervention trials. This study concludes that when a binary outcome variable is measured in a small number of large clusters, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient may be constructed by dividing existing clusters into sub-clusters (e.g. groups of 5) and using Smith's method. The resulting confidence intervals provide nominal or close to nominal coverage across a wide range of parameters when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05). Application of this method should provide investigators with a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with a point estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient used for determining the sample size needed for a newly designed community-based trial. © The Author(s) 2015.

Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.

2002-01-01

Existing models for ring recovery and recapture data analysis treat temporal variations in annual survival probability (S) as fixed effects. Often there is no explainable structure to the temporal variation in S1,..., Sk; random effects can then be a useful model: Si = E(S) + ??i. Here, the temporal variation in survival probability is treated as random with average value E(??2) = ??2. This random effects model can now be fit in program MARK. Resultant inferences include point and interval estimation for process variation, ??2, estimation of E(S) and var (E??(S)) where the latter includes a component for ??2 as well as the traditional component for v??ar(S??\\S??). Furthermore, the random effects model leads to shrinkage estimates, Si, as improved (in mean square error) estimators of Si compared to the MLE, S??i, from the unrestricted time-effects model. Appropriate confidence intervals based on the Si are also provided. In addition, AIC has been generalized to random effects models. This paper presents results of a Monte Carlo evaluation of inference performance under the simple random effects model. Examined by simulation, under the simple one group Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, are issues such as bias of ??s2, confidence interval coverage on ??2, coverage and mean square error comparisons for inference about Si based on shrinkage versus maximum likelihood estimators, and performance of AIC model selection over three models: Si ??? S (no effects), Si = E(S) + ??i (random effects), and S1,..., Sk (fixed effects). For the cases simulated, the random effects methods performed well and were uniformly better than fixed effects MLE for the Si.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaffer, Richard, E-mail: rickyshaffer@yahoo.co.u; Department of Clinical Oncology, Imperial College London National Health Service Trust, London; Pickles, Tom

Purpose: Prior studies have derived low values of alpha-beta ratio (a/ss) for prostate cancer of approximately 1-2 Gy. These studies used poorly matched groups, differing definitions of biochemical failure, and insufficient follow-up. Methods and Materials: National Comprehensive Cancer Network low- or low-intermediate risk prostate cancer patients, treated with external beam radiotherapy or permanent prostate brachytherapy, were matched for prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score, T-stage, percentage of positive cores, androgen deprivation therapy, and era, yielding 118 patient pairs. The Phoenix definition of biochemical failure was used. The best-fitting value for a/ss was found for up to 90-month follow-up using maximum likelihood analysis,more » and the 95% confidence interval using the profile likelihood method. Linear quadratic formalism was applied with the radiobiological parameters of relative biological effectiveness = 1.0, potential doubling time = 45 days, and repair half-time = 1 hour. Bootstrap analysis was performed to estimate uncertainties in outcomes, and hence in a/ss. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the values of the radiobiological parameters to extreme values. Results: The value of a/ss best fitting the outcomes data was >30 Gy, with lower 95% confidence limit of 5.2 Gy. This was confirmed on bootstrap analysis. Varying parameters to extreme values still yielded best-fit a/ss of >30 Gy, although the lower 95% confidence interval limit was reduced to 0.6 Gy. Conclusions: Using carefully matched groups, long follow-up, the Phoenix definition of biochemical failure, and well-established statistical methods, the best estimate of a/ss for low and low-tier intermediate-risk prostate cancer is likely to be higher than that of normal tissues, although a low value cannot be excluded.« less

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ., Apr. 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, P. C.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

Quality of Acute Care and Long-Term Quality of Life and Survival: The Australian Stroke Clinical Registry.

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Andrew, Nadine E; Lannin, Natasha A; Middleton, Sandy; Levi, Christopher R; Dewey, Helen M; Grabsch, Brenda; Faux, Steve; Hill, Kelvin; Grimley, Rohan; Wong, Andrew; Sabet, Arman; Butler, Ernest; Bladin, Christopher F; Bates, Timothy R; Groot, Patrick; Castley, Helen; Donnan, Geoffrey A; Anderson, Craig S

2017-04-01

Uncertainty exists over whether quality improvement strategies translate into better health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and survival after acute stroke. We aimed to determine the association of best practice recommended interventions and outcomes after stroke. Data are from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry during 2010 to 2014. Multivariable regression was used to determine associations between 3 interventions: received acute stroke unit (ASU) care and in various combinations with prescribed antihypertensive medication at discharge, provision of a discharge care plan, and outcomes of survival and HRQoL (EuroQoL 5-dimensional questionnaire visual analogue scale) at 180 days, by stroke type. An assessment was also made of outcomes related to the number of processes patients received. There were 17 585 stroke admissions (median age 77 years, 47% female; 81% managed in ASUs; 80% ischemic stroke) from 42 hospitals (77% metropolitan) assessed. Cumulative benefits on outcomes related to the number of care processes received by patients. ASU care was associated with a reduced likelihood of death (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.56) and better HRQoL (coefficient, 21.34; 95% confidence interval, 15.50-27.18) within 180 days. For those discharged from hospital, receiving ASU+antihypertensive medication provided greater 180-day survival (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.52) compared with ASU care alone (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.76). HRQoL gains were greatest for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage who received care bundles involving discharge processes (range of increase, 11%-19%). Patients with stroke who receive best practice recommended hospital care have improved long-term survival and HRQoL. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1988-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by uing the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded. The techniques described were verified with several example problems from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

Early pregnancy angiogenic markers and spontaneous abortion: an Odense Child Cohort study.

PubMed

Andersen, Louise B; Dechend, Ralf; Karumanchi, S Ananth; Nielsen, Jan; Joergensen, Jan S; Jensen, Tina K; Christesen, Henrik T

2016-11-01

Spontaneous abortion is the most commonly observed adverse pregnancy outcome. The angiogenic factors soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor are critical for normal pregnancy and may be associated to spontaneous abortion. We investigated the association between maternal serum concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor, and subsequent spontaneous abortion. In the prospective observational Odense Child Cohort, 1676 pregnant women donated serum in early pregnancy, gestational week <22 (median 83 days of gestation, interquartile range 71-103). Concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor were determined with novel automated assays. Spontaneous abortion was defined as complete or incomplete spontaneous abortion, missed abortion, or blighted ovum <22+0 gestational weeks, and the prevalence was 3.52% (59 cases). The time-dependent effect of maternal serum concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor on subsequent late first-trimester or second-trimester spontaneous abortion (n = 59) was evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, adjusting for body mass index, parity, season of blood sampling, and age. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristics were employed to identify predictive values and optimal cut-off values. In the adjusted Cox regression analysis, increasing continuous concentrations of both soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor were significantly associated with a decreased hazard ratio for spontaneous abortion: soluble Fms-like kinase 1, 0.996 (95% confidence interval, 0.995-0.997), and placental growth factor, 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.93). When analyzed by receiver operating characteristic cut-offs, women with soluble Fms-like kinase 1 <742 pg/mL had an odds ratio for spontaneous abortion of 12.1 (95% confidence interval, 6.64-22.2), positive predictive value of 11.70%, negative predictive value of 98.90%, positive likelihood ratio of 3.64 (3.07-4.32), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.30 (0.19-0.48). For placental growth factor <19.7 pg/mL, odds ratio was 13.2 (7.09-24.4), positive predictive value was 11.80%, negative predictive value was 99.0%, positive likelihood ratio was 3.68 (3.12-4.34), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (0.17-0.45). In the sensitivity analysis of 54 spontaneous abortions matched 1:4 to controls on gestational age at blood sampling, the highest area under the curve was seen for soluble Fms-like kinase 1 in prediction of first-trimester spontaneous abortion, 0.898 (0.834-0.962), and at the optimum cut-off of 725 pg/mL, negative predictive value was 51.4%, positive predictive value was 94.6%, positive likelihood ratio was 4.04 (2.57-6.35), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.22 (0.09-0.54). A strong, novel prospective association was identified between lower concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor measured in early pregnancy and spontaneous abortion. A soluble Fms-like kinase 1 cut-off <742 pg/mL in maternal serum was optimal to stratify women at high vs low risk of spontaneous abortion. The cause and effect of angiogenic factor alterations in spontaneous abortions remain to be elucidated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stapled versus handsewn methods for colorectal anastomosis surgery.

PubMed

Lustosa, S A; Matos, D; Atallah, A N; Castro, A A

2001-01-01

Randomized controlled trials comparing stapled with handsewn colorectal anastomosis have not shown either technique to be superior, perhaps because individual studies lacked statistical power. A systematic review, with pooled analysis of results, might provide a more definitive answer. To compare the safety and effectiveness of stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. The following primary hypothesis was tested: the stapled technique is more effective because it decreases the level of complications. The RCT register of the Cochrane Review Group was searched for any trial or reference to a relevant trial (published, in-press, or in progress). All publications were sought through computerised searches of EMBASE, LILACS, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Database, and through letters to industrial companies and authors. There were no limits upon language, date, or other criteria. All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in which stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis were compared. Adult patients submitted electively to colorectal anastomosis. Endoluminal circular stapler and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. a) Mortality b) Overall Anastomotic Dehiscence c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence e) Stricture f) Anastomotic Haemorrhage g) Reoperation h) Wound Infection i) Anastomosis Duration j) Hospital Stay. Data were independently extracted by the two reviewers (SASL, DM) and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial was assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomization (generation and concealment), blinding, whether an intention-to-treat analysis was done, and the number of patients lost to follow-up were recorded. The results of each RCT were summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity was defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. The RCTs were stratified according to the level of colorectal anastomosis. The Risk Difference method (random effects model) and NNT for dichotomous outcomes measures and weighted mean difference for continuous outcomes measures, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, were presented in this review. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated by using funnel plot and chi-square testing. Of the 1233 patients enrolled ( in 9 trials), 622 were treated with stapled, and 611 with manual, suture. The following main results were obtained: a) Mortality: result based on 901 patients; Risk Difference - 0.6% Confidence Interval -2.8% to +1.6%. b) Overall Dehiscence: result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference 0.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.0% to +5.3%. c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference -1.4%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.2 to +2.3%. d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 825 patients; Risk Difference 1.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -4.8% to +7.3%. e) Stricture: result based on 1042 patients; Risk Difference 4.6%, 95% Confidence Interval 1.2% to 8.1%. Number needed to treat 17, 95% confidence interval 12 to 31. f) Anastomotic Hemorrhage: result based on 662 patients; Risk Difference 2.7%, 95% Confidence Interval - 0.1% to +5.5%. g) Reoperation: result based on 544 patients; Risk Difference 3.9%, 95% Confidence Interval 0.3% to 7.4%. h) Wound Infection: result based on 567 patients; Risk Difference 1.0%, 95% Confidence Interval -2.2% to +4.3%. i) Anastomosis duration: result based on one study (159 patients); Weighted Mean Difference -7.6 minutes, 95% Confidence Interval -12.9 to -2.2 minutes. j) Hospital Stay: result based on one study (159 patients), Weighted Mean Difference 2.0 days, 95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to +7.2 days. The evidence found was insufficient to demonstrate any superiority of stapled over handsewn techniques in colorectal anastomosis, regardless of the level of anastomosis.

TDP-43 stage, mixed pathologies, and clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia

PubMed Central

James, Bryan D.; Wilson, Robert S.; Boyle, Patricia A.; Trojanowski, John Q.; Bennett, David A.; Schneider, Julie A.

2016-01-01

Hyperphosphorylated transactive response DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43, encoded by TARDBP) proteinopathy has recently been described in ageing and in association with cognitive impairment, especially in the context of Alzheimer’s disease pathology. To explore the role of mixed Alzheimer’s disease and TDP-43 pathologies in clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia, we performed a comprehensive investigation of TDP-43, mixed pathologies, and clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia in a large cohort of community-dwelling older subjects. We tested the hypotheses that TDP-43 with Alzheimer’s disease pathology is a common mixed pathology; is related to increased likelihood of expressing clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia; and that TDP-43 pathologic stage is an important determinant of clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia. Data came from 946 older adults with (n = 398) and without dementia (n = 548) from the Rush Memory and Aging Project and Religious Orders Study. TDP-43 proteinopathy (cytoplasmic inclusions) was present in 496 (52%) subjects, and the pattern of deposition was classified as stage 0 (none; 48%), stage 1 (amygdala; 18%), stage 2 (extension to hippocampus/entorhinal; 21%), or stage 3 (extension to neocortex; 14%). TDP-43 pathology combined with a pathologic diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease was a common mixed pathology (37% of all participants), and the proportion of subjects with clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia formerly labelled ‘pure pathologic diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease’ was halved when TDP-43 was considered. In logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, and education, TDP-43 pathology was associated with clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia (odds ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval = 1.11, 2.05) independent of pathological Alzheimer’s disease (odds ratio = 4.30, 95% confidence interval = 3.08, 6.01) or other pathologies (infarcts, arteriolosclerosis, Lewy bodies, and hippocampal sclerosis). Mixed Alzheimer’s disease and TDP-43 pathologies were associated with higher odds of clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia (odds ratio = 6.73, 95% confidence interval = 4.18, 10.85) than pathologic Alzheimer’s disease alone (odds ratio = 4.62, 95% confidence interval = 2.84, 7.52). In models examining TDP-43 stage, a dose-response relationship with clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia was observed, and a significant association was observed starting at stage 2, extension beyond the amygdala. In this large sample from almost 1000 community participants, we observed that TDP-43 proteinopathy was very common, frequently mixed with pathological Alzheimer’s disease, and associated with a higher likelihood of the clinical expression of clinical Alzheimer’s-type dementia but only when extended beyond the amygdala. PMID:27694152

Limits, discovery and cut optimization for a Poisson process with uncertainty in background and signal efficiency: TRolke 2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundberg, J.; Conrad, J.; Rolke, W.; Lopez, A.

2010-03-01

A C++ class was written for the calculation of frequentist confidence intervals using the profile likelihood method. Seven combinations of Binomial, Gaussian, Poissonian and Binomial uncertainties are implemented. The package provides routines for the calculation of upper and lower limits, sensitivity and related properties. It also supports hypothesis tests which take uncertainties into account. It can be used in compiled C++ code, in Python or interactively via the ROOT analysis framework. Program summaryProgram title: TRolke version 2.0 Catalogue identifier: AEFT_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEFT_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: MIT license No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 3431 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 21 789 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: ISO C++. Computer: Unix, GNU/Linux, Mac. Operating system: Linux 2.6 (Scientific Linux 4 and 5, Ubuntu 8.10), Darwin 9.0 (Mac-OS X 10.5.8). RAM:˜20 MB Classification: 14.13. External routines: ROOT ( http://root.cern.ch/drupal/) Nature of problem: The problem is to calculate a frequentist confidence interval on the parameter of a Poisson process with statistical or systematic uncertainties in signal efficiency or background. Solution method: Profile likelihood method, Analytical Running time:<10 seconds per extracted limit.

Team climate, intention to leave and turnover among hospital employees: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Vanhala, Anna; Pentti, Jaana; Länsisalmi, Hannakaisa; Virtanen, Marianna; Elovainio, Marko; Vahtera, Jussi

2007-10-23

In hospitals, the costs of employee turnover are substantial and intentions to leave among staff may manifest as lowered performance. We examined whether team climate, as indicated by clear and shared goals, participation, task orientation and support for innovation, predicts intention to leave the job and actual turnover among hospital employees. Prospective study with baseline and follow-up surveys (2-4 years apart). The participants were 6,441 (785 men, 5,656 women) hospital employees under the age of 55 at the time of follow-up survey. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used as an analysis method to include both individual and work unit level predictors in the models. Among stayers with no intention to leave at baseline, lower self-reported team climate predicted higher likelihood of having intentions to leave at follow-up (odds ratio per 1 standard deviation decrease in team climate was 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-1.8). Lower co-worker assessed team climate at follow-up was also association with such intentions (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.4-2.4). Among all participants, the likelihood of actually quitting the job was higher for those with poor self-reported team climate at baseline. This association disappeared after adjustment for intention to leave at baseline suggesting that such intentions may explain the greater turnover rate among employees with low team climate. Improving team climate may reduce intentions to leave and turnover among hospital employees.

Bullying in Pattani primary schools in southern Thailand.

PubMed

Laeheem, K; Kuning, M; McNeil, N; Besag, V E

2009-03-01

The purpose of this research was to examine risk factors that affect the likelihood of students in Pattani primary schools bullying other children. Risk factors investigated include school rural/urban location, age, gender, religion, family physical abuse and preference of cartoon type. Identifying students who are at high risk of bullying could assist educational authorities to introduce better strategies for reducing the problem. A total of 1440 students at public and private primary schools in Pattani province were interviewed to collect relevant data. Pearson's chi-square test was used to assess the associations between the likelihood of bullying and possible risk factors. Logistic regression was used to investigate independent associations between the predictor variables and the outcome. We found that 32.9% reported that they had (ever) bullied other children. Bullying was significant associated with age (odds ratio 1.56 for 11+ years, 95% confidence intervals 1.23, 2.18) and family physical abuse (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence intervals 3.40, 5.89). In addition, Those students who preferred action cartoons tended to bully others 1.87 times more than those who preferred watching comedy cartoons. There are significant differences in our population in rates of bullying others that vary according to age, preferred cartoon type and whether or not family (parental) physical abuse has been witnessed. The factor 'preference for cartoon type', not examined in previous research, remained significant after multivariable adjustment. Although there is an association, the cause of this is not clear but merits further examination.

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

Associations of sexually transmitted infections with condom problems among young men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Mustanski, Brian; Ryan, Daniel T; Garofalo, Robert

2014-07-01

Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) are disproportionately infected with sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Condom use is the most widely available means of preventing the transmission of STIs, but effectiveness depends on correct use. Condom errors such as using an oil-based lubricant have been associated with condom failures such as breakage. Little research has been done on the impact of condom problems on the likelihood of contracting an STI. Data came from Crew 450, a longitudinal study of HIV risk among YMSM (N = 450). All self-report data were collected using computer-assisted self-interview technology, and clinical testing was done for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV. Nearly all participants made at least 1 error, with high rates of using oil-based lubricant and incomplete use. No differences were found in rates of condom problems during anal sex with a man versus vaginal sex with a woman. Black YMSM reported significantly higher use of oil-based lubricants than white and Hispanic YMSM, an error significantly associated with HIV status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-6.51). Participants who reported a condom failure were significantly more likely to have an STI (adjusted odds ratio, 3.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-8.12). Young men who have sex with men report high rates of condom problems, and condom failures were significantly associated with STIs after controlling for unprotected sex. Educational programs are needed to enhance correct condom use among YMSM. Further research is needed on the role of oil-based lubricants in explaining racial disparities in STIs and HIV.

Meta-analysis: Association between hypoglycaemia and serious adverse events in older patients.

PubMed

Mattishent, Katharina; Loke, Yoon Kong

2016-07-01

We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of serious adverse events (macro- and microvascular events, falls and fractures, death) associated with hypoglycaemia in older patients. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE spanning a ten-year period up to March 2015 (with automated PubMed updates to October 2015). We selected observational studies reporting on hypoglycaemia and associated serious adverse events, and conducted a meta-analysis. We assessed study validity based on ascertainment of hypoglycaemia, adverse events and adjustment for confounders. We included 17 studies involving 1.86 million participants. Meta-analysis of eight studies demonstrated that hypoglycemic episodes were associated with macrovascular complications, odds ratio (OR) 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64, 2.05), and microvascular complications in two studies OR 1.77 (95% CI 1.49, 2.10). Meta-analysis of four studies demonstrated an association between hypoglycaemia and falls or fractures, OR 1.89 (95% CI 1.54, 2.32) and 1.92 (95% CI 1.56, 2.38) respectively. Hypoglycaemia was associated with increased likelihood of death in a meta-analysis of eight studies, OR 2.04 (95% Confidence Interval 1.68, 2.47). Our meta-analysis raises major concerns about a range of serious adverse events associated with hypoglycaemia. Clinicians should prioritize individualized therapy and closer monitoring strategies to avoid hypoglycaemia in susceptible older patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

PubMed Central

Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

Mock-juror evaluations of traditional and ratings-based eyewitness identification evidence.

PubMed

Sauer, James D; Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil

2017-08-01

Compared to categorical identifications, culprit likelihood ratings (having the witness rate, for each lineup member, the likelihood that the individual is the culprit) provide a promising alternative for assessing a suspect's likely guilt. Four experiments addressed 2 broad questions about the use of culprit likelihood ratings evidence by mock-jurors. First, are mock-jurors receptive to noncategorical forms of identification evidence? Second, does the additional information provided by ratings (relating to discrimination) affect jurors' evaluations of the identification evidence? Experiments 1 and 1A manipulated confidence (90% vs. 50%) and discrimination (good, poor, no information) between participants. Evaluations were influenced by confidence, but not discrimination. However, a within-participant manipulation of discrimination (Experiment 2) demonstrated that evidence of good discrimination enhanced the persuasiveness of moderate levels of confidence, while poor discrimination reduced the persuasiveness of high levels of confidence. Thus, participants can interpret ratings-based evidence, but may not intuit the discrimination information when evaluating ratings for a single identification procedure. Providing detailed instructions about interpreting ratings produced clear discrimination effects when evaluating a single identification procedure (Experiment 3). Across 4 experiments, we found no evidence that mock-jurors perceived noncategorical identification evidence to be less informative than categorical evidence. However, jurors will likely benefit from instruction when interpreting ratings provided by a single witness. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

An Examination of the Likelihood of Home Discharge After General Hospitalizations Among Medicaid Recipients

PubMed Central

Mkanta, William N.; Chumbler, Neale R.; Yang, Kai; Saigal, Romesh; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Mejia de Grubb, Maria C.; Ezekekwu, Emmanuel U.

2017-01-01

Ability to predict discharge destination would be a useful way of optimizing posthospital care. We conducted a cross-sectional, multiple state study of inpatient services to assess the likelihood of home discharges in 2009 among Medicaid enrollees who were discharged following general hospitalizations. Analyses were conducted using hospitalization data from the states of California, Georgia, Michigan, and Mississippi. A total of 33 160 patients were included in the study among which 13 948 (42%) were discharged to their own homes and 19 212 (58%) were discharged to continue with institutional-based treatment. A multiple logistic regression model showed that gender, age, race, and having ambulatory care-sensitive conditions upon admission were significant predictors of home-based discharges. Females were at higher odds of home discharges in the sample (odds ratio [OR] = 1.631; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.520-1.751), while patients with ambulatory care-sensitive conditions were less likely to get home discharges (OR = 0.739; 95% CI, 0.684-0.798). As the nation engages in the continued effort to improve the effectiveness of the health care system, cost savings are possible if providers and systems of care are able to identify admission factors with greater prospects for in-home services after discharge.

Effects of mass media campaign exposure intensity and durability on quit attempts in a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Wakefield, M. A.; Spittal, M. J.; Yong, H-H.; Durkin, S. J.; Borland, R.

2011-01-01

Objective: To assess the extent to which intensity and timing of televised anti-smoking advertising emphasizing the serious harms of smoking influences quit attempts. Methods: Using advertising gross rating points (GRPs), we estimated exposure to tobacco control and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) advertising in the 3, 4–6, 7–9 and 10–12 months prior to follow-up of a replenished cohort of 3037 Australian smokers during 2002–08. Using generalized estimating equations, we related the intensity and timing of advertising exposure from each source to the likelihood of making a quit attempt in the 3 months prior to follow-up. Results: Tobacco control advertising in the 3-month period prior to follow-up, but not in more distant past periods, was related to a higher likelihood of making a quit attempt. Each 1000 GRP increase per quarter was associated with an 11% increase in making a quit attempt [odds ratio (OR) = 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.19, P = 0.009)]. NRT advertising was unrelated to quit attempts. Conclusions: Tobacco control advertising emphasizing the serious harms of smoking is associated with short-term increases in the likelihood of smokers making a quit attempt. Repeated cycles of higher intensity tobacco control media campaigns are needed to sustain high levels of quit attempts. PMID:21730252

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Identifying the bad guy in a lineup using confidence judgments under deadline pressure.

PubMed

Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Wootton, David; Lindsay, D Stephen

2012-10-01

Eyewitness-identification tests often culminate in witnesses not picking the culprit or identifying innocent suspects. We tested a radical alternative to the traditional lineup procedure used in such tests. Rather than making a positive identification, witnesses made confidence judgments under a short deadline about whether each lineup member was the culprit. We compared this deadline procedure with the traditional sequential-lineup procedure in three experiments with retention intervals ranging from 5 min to 1 week. A classification algorithm that identified confidence criteria that optimally discriminated accurate from inaccurate decisions revealed that decision accuracy was 24% to 66% higher under the deadline procedure than under the traditional procedure. Confidence profiles across lineup stimuli were more informative than were identification decisions about the likelihood that an individual witness recognized the culprit or correctly recognized that the culprit was not present. Large differences between the maximum and the next-highest confidence value signaled very high accuracy. Future support for this procedure across varied conditions would highlight a viable alternative to the problematic lineup procedures that have traditionally been used by law enforcement.

Is the first seizure epilepsy--and when?

PubMed

Lawn, Nicholas; Chan, Josephine; Lee, Judy; Dunne, John

2015-09-01

Epilepsy has recently been redefined to include a single unprovoked seizure if the probability of recurrence is ≥60% over the following 10 years. This definition is based on the estimated risk of a third seizure after two unprovoked seizures, using the lower-limit 95% confidence interval (CI) at 4 years, and does not account for the initially high recurrence rate after first-ever seizure that rapidly falls with increasing duration of seizure freedom. We analyzed long-term outcomes after the first-ever seizure, and the influence of duration of seizure freedom on the likelihood of seizure recurrence, and their relevance to the new definition of epilepsy. Prospective analysis of 798 adults with a first-ever unprovoked seizure seen at a hospital-based first seizure clinic between 2000 and 2011. The likelihood of seizure recurrence was analyzed according to the duration of seizure freedom, etiology, electroencephalography (EEG), and neuroimaging findings. The likelihood of seizure recurrence at 10 years was ≥60% in patients with epileptiform abnormalities on EEG or neuroimaging abnormalities, therefore, meeting the new definition of epilepsy. However, the risk of recurrence was highly time dependent; after a brief period (≤12 weeks) of seizure freedom, no patient group continued to fulfill the new definition of epilepsy. Of 407 patients who had a second seizure, the likelihood of a third seizure at 4 years was 68% (95% CI 63-73%) and at 10 years was 85% (95% CI 79-91%). The duration of seizure freedom following first-ever seizure substantially influences the risk of recurrence, with none of our patients fulfilling the new definition of epilepsy after a short period of seizure freedom. When a threshold was applied based on the 10-year risk of a third seizure from our data, no first-seizure patient group ever had epilepsy. These data may be utilized in a definition of epilepsy after a first-ever seizure. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International League Against Epilepsy.

Reliability and diagnostic validity of the slump knee bend neurodynamic test for upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression: a pilot study.

PubMed

Trainor, Kate; Pinnington, Mark A

2011-03-01

It has been proposed that neurodynamic examination can assist differential diagnosis of upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression; however, the diagnostic validity of many of these tests has yet to be established. This pilot study aimed to establish the diagnostic validity of the slump knee bend neurodynamic test for upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression in subjects with suspected lumbosacral radicular pain. Two independent examiners performed the slump knee bend test on subjects with radicular leg pain. Inter-tester reliability was calculated using the kappa coefficient. Slump knee bend test results were compared with magnetic resonance imaging findings, and diagnostic accuracy measures were calculated including sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios. Orthopaedic spinal clinic, secondary care. Sixteen patients with radicular leg pain. All four subjects with mid lumbar nerve root compression on magnetic resonance imaging were correctly identified with the slump knee bend test; however, it was falsely positive in two individuals without the condition. Inter-tester reliability for the slump knee bend test using the kappa coefficient was 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.33 to 1.0). Diagnostic validity calculations for the slump knee bend test (95% confidence intervals) were: sensitivity, 100% (40 to 100%); specificity, 83% (52 to 98%); positive predictive value, 67% (22 to 96%); negative predictive value, 100% (69 to 100%); positive likelihood ratio, 6.0 (1.58 to 19.4); and negative likelihood ratio, 0 (0 to 0.6). Results indicate good inter-tester reliability and suggest that the slump knee bend test has potential to be a useful clinical test for identifying patients with mid lumbar nerve root compression. Further investigation is needed on larger numbers of patients to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2010 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

A semiparametric Bayesian proportional hazards model for interval censored data with frailty effects.

PubMed

Henschel, Volkmar; Engel, Jutta; Hölzel, Dieter; Mansmann, Ulrich

2009-02-10

Multivariate analysis of interval censored event data based on classical likelihood methods is notoriously cumbersome. Likelihood inference for models which additionally include random effects are not available at all. Developed algorithms bear problems for practical users like: matrix inversion, slow convergence, no assessment of statistical uncertainty. MCMC procedures combined with imputation are used to implement hierarchical models for interval censored data within a Bayesian framework. Two examples from clinical practice demonstrate the handling of clustered interval censored event times as well as multilayer random effects for inter-institutional quality assessment. The software developed is called survBayes and is freely available at CRAN. The proposed software supports the solution of complex analyses in many fields of clinical epidemiology as well as health services research.

Modeling gene expression measurement error: a quasi-likelihood approach

PubMed Central

Strimmer, Korbinian

2003-01-01

Background Using suitable error models for gene expression measurements is essential in the statistical analysis of microarray data. However, the true probabilistic model underlying gene expression intensity readings is generally not known. Instead, in currently used approaches some simple parametric model is assumed (usually a transformed normal distribution) or the empirical distribution is estimated. However, both these strategies may not be optimal for gene expression data, as the non-parametric approach ignores known structural information whereas the fully parametric models run the risk of misspecification. A further related problem is the choice of a suitable scale for the model (e.g. observed vs. log-scale). Results Here a simple semi-parametric model for gene expression measurement error is presented. In this approach inference is based an approximate likelihood function (the extended quasi-likelihood). Only partial knowledge about the unknown true distribution is required to construct this function. In case of gene expression this information is available in the form of the postulated (e.g. quadratic) variance structure of the data. As the quasi-likelihood behaves (almost) like a proper likelihood, it allows for the estimation of calibration and variance parameters, and it is also straightforward to obtain corresponding approximate confidence intervals. Unlike most other frameworks, it also allows analysis on any preferred scale, i.e. both on the original linear scale as well as on a transformed scale. It can also be employed in regression approaches to model systematic (e.g. array or dye) effects. Conclusions The quasi-likelihood framework provides a simple and versatile approach to analyze gene expression data that does not make any strong distributional assumptions about the underlying error model. For several simulated as well as real data sets it provides a better fit to the data than competing models. In an example it also improved the power of tests to identify differential expression. PMID:12659637

Uncertainty in Population Growth Rates: Determining Confidence Intervals from Point Estimates of Parameters

PubMed Central

Devenish Nelson, Eleanor S.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl D.; Richards, Shane A.; Stephens, Philip A.

2010-01-01

Background Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. Conclusions/Significance Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species. PMID:21049049

Defining thresholds of specific IgE levels to grass pollen and birch pollen allergens improves clinical interpretation.

PubMed

Van Hoeyveld, Erna; Nickmans, Silvie; Ceuppens, Jan L; Bossuyt, Xavier

2015-10-23

Cut-off values and predictive values are used for the clinical interpretation of specific IgE antibody results. However, cut-off levels are not well defined, and predictive values are dependent on the prevalence of disease. The objective of this study was to document clinically relevant diagnostic accuracy of specific IgE for inhalant allergens (grass pollen and birch pollen) based on test result interval-specific likelihood ratios. Likelihood ratios are independent of the prevalence and allow to provide diagnostic accuracy information for test result intervals. In a prospective study we included consecutive adult patients presenting at an allergy clinic with complaints of rhinitis or rhinoconjunctivitis. The standard for diagnosis was a suggestive clinical history of grass or birch pollen allergy and a positive skin test. Specific IgE was determined with the ImmunoCAP Fluorescence Enzyme Immuno-Assay. We established specific IgE test result interval related likelihood ratios for clinical allergy to inhalant allergens (grass pollen, rPhl p 1,5, birch pollen, rBet v 1). The likelihood ratios for allergy increased with increasing specific IgE antibody levels. The likelihood ratio was <0.03 for specific IgE <0.1 kU/L, between 0.1 and 1.4 for specific IgE between 0.1 kU/L and 0.35 kU/L, between 1.4 and 4.2 for specific IgE between 0.35 kU/L and 3.5 kU/L, >6.3 for specific IgE>0.7, and very high (∞) for specific IgE >3.5 kU/L. Test result interval specific likelihood ratios provide a useful tool for the interpretation of specific IgE test results for inhalant allergens. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness of Antivenoms for Snakebite Envenoming in 16 Countries in West Africa

PubMed Central

Hamza, Muhammad; Idris, Maryam A.; Maiyaki, Musa B.; Lamorde, Mohammed; Chippaux, Jean-Philippe; Warrell, David A.; Kuznik, Andreas; Habib, Abdulrazaq G.

2016-01-01

Background Snakebite poisoning is a significant medical problem in agricultural societies in Sub Saharan Africa. Antivenom (AV) is the standard treatment, and we assessed the cost-effectiveness of making it available in 16 countries in West Africa. Methods We determined the cost-effectiveness of AV based on a decision-tree model from a public payer perspective. Specific AVs included in the model were Antivipmyn, FAV Afrique, EchiTab-G and EchiTab-Plus. We derived inputs from the literature which included: type of snakes causing bites (carpet viper (Echis species)/non-carpet viper), AV effectiveness against death, mortality without AV, probability of Early Adverse Reactions (EAR), likelihood of death from EAR, average age at envenomation in years, anticipated remaining life span and likelihood of amputation. Costs incurred by the victims include: costs of confirming and evaluating envenomation, AV acquisition, routine care, AV transportation logistics, hospital admission and related transportation costs, management of AV EAR compared to the alternative of free snakebite care with ineffective or no AV. Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) were assessed as the cost per death averted and the cost per Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALY) averted. Probabilistic Sensitivity Analyses (PSA) using Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain 95% Confidence Intervals of ICERs. Results The cost/death averted for the 16 countries of interest ranged from $1,997 in Guinea Bissau to $6,205 for Liberia and Sierra Leone. The cost/DALY averted ranged from $83 (95% Confidence Interval: $36-$240) for Benin Republic to $281 ($159–457) for Sierra-Leone. In all cases, the base-case cost/DALY averted estimate fell below the commonly accepted threshold of one time per capita GDP, suggesting that AV is highly cost-effective for the treatment of snakebite in all 16 WA countries. The findings were consistent even with variations of inputs in 1—way sensitivity analyses. In addition, the PSA showed that in the majority of iterations ranging from 97.3% in Liberia to 100% in Cameroun, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Nigeria and Senegal, our model results yielded an ICER that fell below the threshold of one time per capita GDP, thus, indicating a high degree of confidence in our results. Conclusions Therapy for SBE with AV in countries of WA is highly cost-effective at commonly accepted thresholds. Broadening access to effective AVs in rural communities in West Africa is a priority. PMID:27027633

The status of women at one academic medical center. Breaking through the glass ceiling.

PubMed

Nickerson, K G; Bennett, N M; Estes, D; Shea, S

1990-10-10

Despite recent gains in admission to medical school and in obtaining junior faculty positions, women remain underrepresented at senior academic ranks and in leadership positions in medicine. This discrepancy has been interpreted as evidence of a "glass ceiling" that prevents all but a few exceptional women from gaining access to leadership positions. We analyzed data from Columbia University College of Physicians & Surgeons, New York, NY, for all faculty hired from 1969 through 1988 and found that the likelihood of promotion on the tenure track was 0.40 for women and 0.48 for men (ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.56 to 1.20); on the clinical track the likelihood of promotion was 0.75 for women and 0.72 for men (ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.56 to 1.94). Additional analysis of current faculty showed that in the academic year 1988-1989 the proportion of women at each tenure track rank at the College of Physicians & Surgeons equaled or exceeded the national proportion of women graduating from medical school, once allowance was made for the average time lag necessary to attain each rank. On the clinical track women were somewhat overrepresented, particularly at the junior rank. National data that describe medical school faculty, which combine tenure and clinical tracks, showed that in 1988 women were proportionately represented at each rank once the lead time from graduation was considered. We conclude that objective evidence shows that women can succeed and are succeeding in gaining promotions in academic medicine.

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Statistical inference for the within-device precision of quantitative measurements in assay validation.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Pei; Lu, Li-Tien; Liao, C T

2009-09-01

Intermediate precision is one of the most important characteristics for evaluation of precision in assay validation. The current methods for evaluation of within-device precision recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline EP5-A2 are based on the point estimator. On the other hand, in addition to point estimators, confidence intervals can provide a range for the within-device precision with a probability statement. Therefore, we suggest a confidence interval approach for assessment of the within-device precision. Furthermore, under the two-stage nested random-effects model recommended by the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2, in addition to the current Satterthwaite's approximation and the modified large sample (MLS) methods, we apply the technique of generalized pivotal quantities (GPQ) to derive the confidence interval for the within-device precision. The data from the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2 illustrate the applications of the confidence interval approach and comparison of results between the three methods. Results of a simulation study on the coverage probability and expected length of the three methods are reported. The proposed method of the GPQ-based confidence intervals is also extended to consider the between-laboratories variation for precision assessment.

Management of Patients With Cardiac Arrest Complicating Myocardial Infarction in New York Before and After Public Reporting Policy Changes.

PubMed

Strom, Jordan B; McCabe, James M; Waldo, Stephen W; Pinto, Duane S; Kennedy, Kevin F; Feldman, Dmitriy N; Yeh, Robert W

2017-05-01

In 2010, New York State began excluding selected patients with cardiac arrest and coma from publicly reported mortality statistics after percutaneous coronary intervention. We evaluated the effects of this exclusion on rates of coronary angiography, revascularization, and mortality among patients with acute myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest. Using statewide hospitalization files, we identified discharges for acute myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest January 2003 to December 2013 in New York and several comparator states. A difference-in-differences approach was used to evaluate the likelihood of coronary angiography, revascularization, and in-hospital mortality before and after 2010. A total of 26 379 patients with acute myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest (5619 in New York) were included. Of these, 17 141 (65%) underwent coronary angiography, 12 183 (46.2%) underwent percutaneous coronary intervention, and 2832 (10.7%) underwent coronary artery bypass grafting. Before 2010, patients with cardiac arrest in New York were less likely to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention compared with referent states (adjusted relative risk, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.85; P <0.001). This relationship was unchanged after the policy change (adjusted relative risk, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.89; interaction P =0.359). Adjusted risks of in-hospital mortality between New York and comparator states after 2010 were also similar (adjusted relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.02; P =0.152 for post- versus pre-2010 in New York; adjusted relative risk, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.92; P <0.001 for comparator states; interaction P =0.103). Exclusion of selected cardiac arrest cases from public reporting was not associated with changes in rates of percutaneous coronary intervention or in-hospital mortality in New York. Rates of revascularization in New York for cardiac arrest patients were lower throughout. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Contact-Free Screening of Atrial Fibrillation by a Smartphone Using Facial Pulsatile Photoplethysmographic Signals.

PubMed

Yan, Bryan P; Lai, William H S; Chan, Christy K Y; Chan, Stephen Chun-Hin; Chan, Lok-Hei; Lam, Ka-Ming; Lau, Ho-Wang; Ng, Chak-Ming; Tai, Lok-Yin; Yip, Kin-Wai; To, Olivia T L; Freedman, Ben; Poh, Yukkee C; Poh, Ming-Zher

2018-04-05

We aimed to evaluate a novel method of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening using an iPhone camera to detect and analyze photoplethysmographic signals from the face without physical contact by extracting subtle beat-to-beat variations of skin color that reflect the cardiac pulsatile signal. Patients admitted to the cardiology ward of the hospital for clinical reasons were recruited. Simultaneous facial and fingertip photoplethysmographic measurements were obtained from 217 hospital inpatients (mean age, 70.3±13.9 years; 71.4% men) facing the front camera and with an index finger covering the back camera of 2 independent iPhones before a 12-lead ECG was recorded. Backdrop and background light intensity was monitored during signal acquisition. Three successive 20-second (total, 60 seconds) recordings were acquired per patient and analyzed for heart rate regularity by Cardiio Rhythm (Cardiio Inc, Cambridge, MA) smartphone application. Pulse irregularity in ≥1 photoplethysmographic readings or 3 uninterpretable photoplethysmographic readings were considered a positive AF screening result. AF was present on 12-lead ECG in 34.6% (n=75/217) patients. The Cardiio Rhythm facial photoplethysmographic application demonstrated high sensitivity (95%; 95% confidence interval, 87%-98%) and specificity (96%; 95% confidence interval, 91%-98%) in discriminating AF from sinus rhythm compared with 12-lead ECG. The positive and negative predictive values were 92% (95% confidence interval, 84%-96%) and 97% (95% confidence interval, 93%-99%), respectively. Detection of a facial photoplethysmographic signal to determine pulse irregularity attributable to AF is feasible. The Cardiio Rhythm smartphone application showed high sensitivity and specificity, with low negative likelihood ratio for AF from facial photoplethysmographic signals. The convenience of a contact-free approach is attractive for community screening and has the potential to be useful for distant AF screening. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Deterministic versus evidence-based attitude towards clinical diagnosis.

PubMed

Soltani, Akbar; Moayyeri, Alireza

2007-08-01

Generally, two basic classes have been proposed for scientific explanation of events. Deductive reasoning emphasizes on reaching conclusions about a hypothesis based on verification of universal laws pertinent to that hypothesis, while inductive or probabilistic reasoning explains an event by calculation of some probabilities for that event to be related to a given hypothesis. Although both types of reasoning are used in clinical practice, evidence-based medicine stresses on the advantages of the second approach for most instances in medical decision making. While 'probabilistic or evidence-based' reasoning seems to involve more mathematical formulas at the first look, this attitude is more dynamic and less imprisoned by the rigidity of mathematics comparing with 'deterministic or mathematical attitude'. In the field of medical diagnosis, appreciation of uncertainty in clinical encounters and utilization of likelihood ratio as measure of accuracy seem to be the most important characteristics of evidence-based doctors. Other characteristics include use of series of tests for refining probability, changing diagnostic thresholds considering external evidences and nature of the disease, and attention to confidence intervals to estimate uncertainty of research-derived parameters.

TDP-43 stage, mixed pathologies, and clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia.

PubMed

James, Bryan D; Wilson, Robert S; Boyle, Patricia A; Trojanowski, John Q; Bennett, David A; Schneider, Julie A

2016-11-01

Hyperphosphorylated transactive response DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43, encoded by TARDBP ) proteinopathy has recently been described in ageing and in association with cognitive impairment, especially in the context of Alzheimer's disease pathology. To explore the role of mixed Alzheimer's disease and TDP-43 pathologies in clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia, we performed a comprehensive investigation of TDP-43, mixed pathologies, and clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia in a large cohort of community-dwelling older subjects. We tested the hypotheses that TDP-43 with Alzheimer's disease pathology is a common mixed pathology; is related to increased likelihood of expressing clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia; and that TDP-43 pathologic stage is an important determinant of clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia. Data came from 946 older adults with ( n = 398) and without dementia ( n = 548) from the Rush Memory and Aging Project and Religious Orders Study. TDP-43 proteinopathy (cytoplasmic inclusions) was present in 496 (52%) subjects, and the pattern of deposition was classified as stage 0 (none; 48%), stage 1 (amygdala; 18%), stage 2 (extension to hippocampus/entorhinal; 21%), or stage 3 (extension to neocortex; 14%). TDP-43 pathology combined with a pathologic diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease was a common mixed pathology (37% of all participants), and the proportion of subjects with clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia formerly labelled 'pure pathologic diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease' was halved when TDP-43 was considered. In logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, and education, TDP-43 pathology was associated with clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia (odds ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval = 1.11, 2.05) independent of pathological Alzheimer's disease (odds ratio = 4.30, 95% confidence interval = 3.08, 6.01) or other pathologies (infarcts, arteriolosclerosis, Lewy bodies, and hippocampal sclerosis). Mixed Alzheimer's disease and TDP-43 pathologies were associated with higher odds of clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia (odds ratio = 6.73, 95% confidence interval = 4.18, 10.85) than pathologic Alzheimer's disease alone (odds ratio = 4.62, 95% confidence interval = 2.84, 7.52). In models examining TDP-43 stage, a dose-response relationship with clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia was observed, and a significant association was observed starting at stage 2, extension beyond the amygdala. In this large sample from almost 1000 community participants, we observed that TDP-43 proteinopathy was very common, frequently mixed with pathological Alzheimer's disease, and associated with a higher likelihood of the clinical expression of clinical Alzheimer's-type dementia but only when extended beyond the amygdala. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Expanded indications for bariatric surgery: should patients on chronic steroids be offered bariatric procedures?

PubMed

Kaplan, Jennifer A; Schecter, Samuel C; Rogers, Stanley J; Lin, Matthew Y C; Posselt, Andrew M; Carter, Jonathan T

2017-01-01

Patients who take chronic corticosteroids are increasingly referred for bariatric surgery. Little is known about their clinical outcomes. Determine whether chronic steroid use is associated with increased morbidity and mortality after stapled bariatric procedures. American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database. All patients who underwent laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy or laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and were reported to the ACS-NSQIP from 2011 to 2013 were reviewed. Patients were grouped based on type of surgery and history of chronic steroid use. Primary outcome measures were mortality and serious morbidity in the first 30 days. Regression analyses were used to determine predictors of outcome. Of 23,798 patients who underwent laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy and 38,184 who underwent Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, 385 (1.6%) and 430 (1.1%), respectively, were on chronic steroids. Patients on chronic steroids had a 3.4 times increased likelihood of dying within 30 days (95% confidence interval 1.4-8.1, P = .007), and 2-fold increased odds of serious complications (95% confidence interval 1.2-2.3, P = .008), regardless of surgery type. In multivariate regression, steroid usage remained an independent predictor of mortality and serious complications. In a large, nationally representative patient database, steroid use independently predicted mortality and serious postoperative complications after stapled bariatric procedures. Surgeons should be cautious about offering stapled bariatric procedures to patients on chronic steroids. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; van der Wiel, Karin; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah F.; Uhe, Peter; Cullen, Heidi

2018-02-01

On 4-6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing Northern England and Southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5%-97.5% confidence interval of 5%-80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month.

Screening for depression with a brief questionnaire in a primary care setting: validation of the two questions with help question (Malay version).

PubMed

Mohd-Sidik, Sherina; Arroll, Bruce; Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Zain, Azhar M D

2011-01-01

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of the two questions with help question (TQWHQ) in the Malay language. The two questions are case-finding questions on depression, and a question on whether help is needed was added to increase the specificity of the two questions. This cross sectional validation study was conducted in a government funded primary care clinic in Malaysia. The participants included 146 consecutive women patients receiving no psychotropic drugs and who were Malay speakers. The main outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of the two questions and help question. The two questions showed a sensitivity of 99% (95% confidence interval 88% to 99.9%) and a specificity of 70% (62% to 78%), respectively. The likelihood ratio for a positive test was 3.3 (2.5 to 4.5) and the likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.01 (0.00 to 0.57). The addition of the help question to the two questions increased the specificity to 95% (89% to 98%). The two qeustions on depression detected most cases of depression in this study. The questions have the advantage of brevity. The addition of the help question increased the specificity of the two questions. Based on these findings, the TQWHQ can be strongly recommended for detection of depression in government primary care clnics in Malaysia. Translation did not apear to affect the validity of the TQWHQ.

Physical and cognitive capability in mid-adulthood as determinants of retirement and extended working life in a British cohort study.

PubMed

Stafford, Mai; Cooper, Rachel; Cadar, Dorina; Carr, Ewan; Murray, Emily; Richards, Marcus; Stansfeld, Stephen; Zaninotto, Paola; Head, Jenny; Kuh, Diana

2017-01-01

Objective Policy in many industrialized countries increasingly emphasizes extended working life. We examined associations between physical and cognitive capability in mid-adulthood and work in late adulthood. Methods Using self-reported physical limitations and performance-based physical and cognitive capability at age 53, assessed by trained nurses from the Medical Research Council (MRC) National Survey of Health and Development, we examined prospective associations with extended working (captured by age at and reason for retirement from main occupation, bridge employment in paid work after retirement from the main occupation, and voluntary work participation) up to age 68 among >2000 men and women. Results Number of reported physical limitations at age 53 was associated with higher likelihood of retiring for negative reasons and lower likelihood of participating in bridge employment, adjusted for occupational class, education, partner's employment, work disability at age 53, and gender. Better performance on physical and cognitive tests was associated with greater likelihood of participating in bridge or voluntary work. Cognitive capability in the top 10% compared with the middle 80% of the distribution was associated with an odds ratio of bridge employment of 1.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.21-2.42]. Conclusions The possibility for an extending working life is less likely to be realized by those with poorer midlife physical or cognitive capability, independently of education, and social class. Interventions to promote capability, starting in mid-adulthood or earlier, could have long-term consequences for extending working.

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models which simulate the climate system. The method is applied to model data from the high resolution ocean model, INALT01 where the relationship between the Agulhas Leakage and the North Brazil Current is evaluated. Preliminary results show significant correlation between the two variables when there is 10 year lag between them, which is more or less the time that takes the Agulhas Leakage water to reach the North Brazil Current. Mudelsee, M., 2003. Estimating Pearson's correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. Mathematical Geology 35, 651-665.

Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.

2014-12-01

The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify treating uncertainty along those two dimensions, and indicate how this can be avoided.

Software for Quantifying and Simulating Microsatellite Genotyping Error

PubMed Central

Johnson, Paul C.D.; Haydon, Daniel T.

2007-01-01

Microsatellite genetic marker data are exploited in a variety of fields, including forensics, gene mapping, kinship inference and population genetics. In all of these fields, inference can be thwarted by failure to quantify and account for data errors, and kinship inference in particular can benefit from separating errors into two distinct classes: allelic dropout and false alleles. Pedant is MS Windows software for estimating locus-specific maximum likelihood rates of these two classes of error. Estimation is based on comparison of duplicate error-prone genotypes: neither reference genotypes nor pedigree data are required. Other functions include: plotting of error rate estimates and confidence intervals; simulations for performing power analysis and for testing the robustness of error rate estimates to violation of the underlying assumptions; and estimation of expected heterozygosity, which is a required input. The program, documentation and source code are available from http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/~paulj/pedant.html. PMID:20066126

The Determinants of Place of Death: An Evidence-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

Costa, V

2014-01-01

Background According to a conceptual model described in this analysis, place of death is determined by an interplay of factors associated with the illness, the individual, and the environment. Objectives Our objective was to evaluate the determinants of place of death for adult patients who have been diagnosed with an advanced, life-limiting condition and are not expected to stabilize or improve. Data Sources A literature search was performed using Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid Embase, EBSCO Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and EBM Reviews, for studies published from January 1, 2004, to September 24, 2013. Review Methods Different places of death are considered in this analysis—home, nursing home, inpatient hospice, and inpatient palliative care unit, compared with hospital. We selected factors to evaluate from a list of possible predictors—i.e., determinants—of death. We extracted the adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of each determinant, performed a meta-analysis if appropriate, and conducted a stratified analysis if substantial heterogeneity was observed. Results From a literature search yielding 5,899 citations, we included 2 systematic reviews and 29 observational studies. Factors that increased the likelihood of home death included multidisciplinary home palliative care, patient preference, having an informal caregiver, and the caregiver's ability to cope. Factors increasing the likelihood of a nursing home death included the availability of palliative care in the nursing home and the existence of advance directives. A cancer diagnosis and the involvement of home care services increased the likelihood of dying in an inpatient palliative care unit. A cancer diagnosis and a longer time between referral to palliative care and death increased the likelihood of inpatient hospice death. The quality of the evidence was considered low. Limitations Our results are based on those of retrospective observational studies. Conclusions The results obtained were consistent with previously published systematic reviews. The analysis identified several factors that are associated with place of death. PMID:26351550

The performance of blood pressure-to-height ratio as a screening measure for identifying children and adolescents with hypertension: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Chunming; Liu, Yue; Lu, Qiang; Lu, Na; Liu, Xiaoli; Tian, Yiming; Wang, Rui; Yin, Fuzai

2016-02-01

The blood pressure-to-height ratio (BPHR) has been shown to be an accurate index for screening hypertension in children and adolescents. The aim of the present study was to perform a meta-analysis to assess the performance of BPHR for the assessment of hypertension. Electronic and manual searches were performed to identify studies of the BPHR. After methodological quality assessment and data extraction, pooled estimates of the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and summary receiver operating characteristics were assessed systematically. The extent of heterogeneity for it was assessed. Six studies were identified for analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and diagnostic odds ratio values of BPHR, for assessment of hypertension, were 96% [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.95-0.97], 90% (95% CI=0.90-0.91), 10.68 (95% CI=8.03-14.21), 0.04 (95% CI=0.03-0.07) and 247.82 (95% CI=114.50-536.34), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.9472. The BPHR had higher diagnostic accuracies for identifying hypertension in children and adolescents.

Mean cerebral blood volume is an effective diagnostic index of recurrent and radiation injury in glioma patients: A meta-analysis of diagnostic test.

PubMed

Li, Zhanzhan; Zhou, Qin; Li, Yanyan; Yan, Shipeng; Fu, Jun; Huang, Xinqiong; Shen, Liangfang

2017-02-28

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the diagnostic values of mean cerebral blood volume for recurrent and radiation injury in glioma patients. We performed systematic electronic searches for eligible study up to August 8, 2016. Bivariate mixed effects models were used to estimate the combined sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios, negative likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Fifteen studies with a total number of 576 participants were enrolled. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic were 0.88 (95%CI: 0.82-0.92) and 0.85 (95%CI: 0.68-0.93). The pooled positive likelihood ratio is 5.73 (95%CI: 2.56-12.81), negative likelihood ratio is 0.15 (95%CI: 0.10-0.22), and the diagnostic odds ratio is 39.34 (95%CI:13.96-110.84). The summary receiver operator characteristic is 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88-0.93). However, the Deek's plot suggested publication bias may exist (t=2.30, P=0.039). Mean cerebral blood volume measurement methods seems to be very sensitive and highly specific to differentiate recurrent and radiation injury in glioma patients. The results should be interpreted with caution because of the potential bias.

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Incidence of Mastitis in the Neonatal Period in a Traditional Breastfeeding Society: Results of a Cohort Study.

PubMed

Khanal, Vishnu; Scott, Jane A; Lee, Andy H; Binns, Colin W

2015-12-01

Mastitis is a painful problem experienced by breastfeeding women, especially in the first few weeks postpartum. There have been limited studies of the incidence of mastitis from traditionally breastfeeding societies in South Asia. This study investigated the incidence, determinants, and management of mastitis in the first month postpartum, as well as its association with breastfeeding outcomes at 4 and 6 months postpartum, in western Nepal. Subjects were a subsample of 338 mothers participating in a larger prospective cohort study conducted in 2014 in western Nepal. Mothers were interviewed during the first month postpartum and again at 4 and 6 months to obtain information on breastfeeding practices. The association of mastitis and determinant variables was investigated using multivariable logistic regression, and the association with breastfeeding duration was examined using Kaplan-Meier estimation. The incidence of mastitis was 8.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.1%, 10.8%) in the first month postpartum. Prelacteal feeding (adjusted odds ratio = 2.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 7.40) and cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.09, 11.42) were associated with a higher likelihood of mastitis. Kaplan-Meier estimation showed no significant difference in the duration of exclusive breastfeeding among the mothers who experienced an episode of mastitis and those who did not. Roughly one in 10 (8.0%) women experienced mastitis in the first month postpartum, and there appeared to be little effect of mastitis on breastfeeding outcomes. Traditional breastfeeding practices should be encouraged, and the management of mastitis should be included as a part of lactation promotion.

Implementation of standardized follow-up care significantly reduces peritonitis in children on chronic peritoneal dialysis.

PubMed

Neu, Alicia M; Richardson, Troy; Lawlor, John; Stuart, Jayne; Newland, Jason; McAfee, Nancy; Warady, Bradley A

2016-06-01

The Standardizing Care to improve Outcomes in Pediatric End stage renal disease (SCOPE) Collaborative aims to reduce peritonitis rates in pediatric chronic peritoneal dialysis patients by increasing implementation of standardized care practices. To assess this, monthly care bundle compliance and annualized monthly peritonitis rates were evaluated from 24 SCOPE centers that were participating at collaborative launch and that provided peritonitis rates for the 13 months prior to launch. Changes in bundle compliance were assessed using either a logistic regression model or a generalized linear mixed model. Changes in average annualized peritonitis rates over time were illustrated using the latter model. In the first 36 months of the collaborative, 644 patients with 7977 follow-up encounters were included. The likelihood of compliance with follow-up care practices increased significantly (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.10, 1.19). Mean monthly peritonitis rates significantly decreased from 0.63 episodes per patient year (95% confidence interval 0.43, 0.92) prelaunch to 0.42 (95% confidence interval 0.31, 0.57) at 36 months postlaunch. A sensitivity analysis confirmed that as mean follow-up compliance increased, peritonitis rates decreased, reaching statistical significance at 80% at which point the prelaunch rate was 42% higher than the rate in the months following achievement of 80% compliance. In its first 3 years, the SCOPE Collaborative has increased the implementation of standardized follow-up care and demonstrated a significant reduction in average monthly peritonitis rates. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Parametric Model Based On Imputations Techniques for Partly Interval Censored Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zyoud, Abdallah; Elfaki, F. A. M.; Hrairi, Meftah

2017-12-01

The term ‘survival analysis’ has been used in a broad sense to describe collection of statistical procedures for data analysis. In this case, outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs where the time to failure of a specific experimental unit might be censored which can be right, left, interval, and Partly Interval Censored data (PIC). In this paper, analysis of this model was conducted based on parametric Cox model via PIC data. Moreover, several imputation techniques were used, which are: midpoint, left & right point, random, mean, and median. Maximum likelihood estimate was considered to obtain the estimated survival function. These estimations were then compared with the existing model, such as: Turnbull and Cox model based on clinical trial data (breast cancer data), for which it showed the validity of the proposed model. Result of data set indicated that the parametric of Cox model proved to be more superior in terms of estimation of survival functions, likelihood ratio tests, and their P-values. Moreover, based on imputation techniques; the midpoint, random, mean, and median showed better results with respect to the estimation of survival function.

A Community-Based Positive Deviance/Hearth Infant and Young Child Nutrition Intervention in Ecuador Improved Diet and Reduced Underweight.

PubMed

Roche, Marion L; Marquis, Grace S; Gyorkos, Theresa W; Blouin, Brittany; Sarsoza, Julieta; Kuhnlein, Harriet V

2017-03-01

Underweight and stunting are serious problems in Ecuador that require interventions in the first 2 years of life. The researchers assessed the effectiveness of a Positive Deviance (PD)/Hearth community-based intervention using local foods to improve infant and young children's nutrition. A quasi-experimental nonrandomized study was conducted between March and October, 2009. The intervention and study were implemented in the Ecuadorian highlands provinces of Chimborazo and Tungurahua. Eighty mother-child pairs in 6 intervention communities and 184 mother-child pairs in 9 comparison communities. Mothers met in participatory peer-led PD/Hearth cooking and nutrition education sessions for 12 days. Dietary intake and nutritional status were collected at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Multiple linear and logistic regression were used for growth outcomes, and ANCOVA for mean dietary intakes. Mothers in the intervention were 1.3-5.7 times more likely to feed their children the promoted foods (P < .05). Children in the intervention consumed a higher percentage of recommended intakes for iron, zinc, vitamin A, protein, and energy (P < .05) at follow-up and had improvements in weight-for-age z-score (β = .17; 95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.31). Likelihood of underweight was reduced for children in the intervention (odds ratio = 0.36; 95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.96) CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The PD/Hearth interventions support mothers to improve infant and young children's nutrition practices and reduce underweight. Copyright © 2016 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Primary Spoken Language and Neuraxial Labor Analgesia Use Among Hispanic Medicaid Recipients.

PubMed

Toledo, Paloma; Eosakul, Stanley T; Grobman, William A; Feinglass, Joe; Hasnain-Wynia, Romana

2016-01-01

Hispanic women are less likely than non-Hispanic Caucasian women to use neuraxial labor analgesia. It is unknown whether there is a disparity in anticipated or actual use of neuraxial labor analgesia among Hispanic women based on primary language (English versus Spanish). In this 3-year retrospective, single-institution, cross-sectional study, we extracted electronic medical record data on Hispanic nulliparous with vaginal deliveries who were insured by Medicaid. On admission, patients self-identified their primary language and anticipated analgesic use for labor. Extracted data included age, marital status, labor type, delivery provider (obstetrician or midwife), and anticipated and actual analgesic use. Household income was estimated from census data geocoded by zip code. Multivariable logistic regression models were estimated for anticipated and actual neuraxial analgesia use. Among 932 Hispanic women, 182 were self-identified as primary Spanish speakers. Spanish-speaking Hispanic women were less likely to anticipate and use neuraxial anesthesia than English-speaking women. After controlling for confounders, there was an association between primary language and anticipated neuraxial analgesia use (adjusted relative risk: Spanish- versus English-speaking women, 0.70; 97.5% confidence interval, 0.53-0.92). Similarly, there was an association between language and neuraxial analgesia use (adjusted relative risk: Spanish- versus English-speaking women 0.88; 97.5% confidence interval, 0.78-0.99). The use of a midwife compared with an obstetrician also decreased the likelihood of both anticipating and using neuraxial analgesia. A language-based disparity was found in neuraxial labor analgesia use. It is possible that there are communication barriers in knowledge or understanding of analgesic options. Further research is necessary to determine the cause of this association.

Adherence to Dietary Guidelines and Successful Aging Over 10 Years.

PubMed

Gopinath, Bamini; Russell, Joanna; Kifley, Annette; Flood, Victoria M; Mitchell, Paul

2016-03-01

We aimed to prospectively examine the relationship between overall diet quality (reflecting adherence to dietary guidelines) and successful aging in a population-based cohort of older adults. In this population-based cohort study, we analyzed 10-year follow-up data from 1,609 adults aged 49 years and older, who were free of cancer, coronary artery disease, and stroke at the baseline and who had complete dietary data. Dietary data were collected using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Total diet scores (TDS) were allocated for intake of selected food groups and nutrients for each participant as described in the national dietary guidelines. Higher scores indicated closer adherence to dietary guidelines. Successful aging was defined as the absence of disability, depressive symptoms, cognitive impairment, respiratory symptoms, and chronic diseases (cancer, coronary artery disease, and stroke). At 10-year follow-up, 610 (37.9%) participants had died and 249 (15.5%) participants aged successfully. After multivariable adjustment, each 1-unit increase in TDS at baseline was associated with a 8% increased odds of successful aging 10 years later, odds ratio 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.00-1.15). Participants in the highest (high adherence to dietary guidelines) versus lowest quartile (poor adherence to guidelines) of TDS at baseline had 58% higher odds of successful aging after 10 years, odds ratio 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.02-2.46). Greater compliance with recommended national dietary guidelines (higher diet quality) was associated with an increased likelihood of successful aging, as determined through a multidomain approach. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Gao, Xiong; Yu, Chen

2017-06-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. The Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

Accuracy of diagnostic tests to detect asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy.

PubMed

Mignini, Luciano; Carroli, Guillermo; Abalos, Edgardo; Widmer, Mariana; Amigot, Susana; Nardin, Juan Manuel; Giordano, Daniel; Merialdi, Mario; Arciero, Graciela; Del Carmen Hourquescos, Maria

2009-02-01

A dipslide is a plastic paddle coated with agar that is attached to a plastic cap that screws onto a sterile plastic vial. Our objective was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of the dipslide culture technique to detect asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy and to evaluate the accuracy of nitrate and leucocyte esterase dipslides for screening. This was an ancillary study within a trial comparing single-day with 7-day therapy in treating asymptomatic bacteriuria. Clean-catch midstream samples were collected from pregnant women seeking routine care. Positive and negative likelihood ratios and sensitivity and specificity for the culture-based dipslide to detect and chemical dipsticks (nitrites, leukocyte esterase, or both) to screen were estimated using traditional urine culture as the "gold standard." : A total of 3,048 eligible pregnant women were screened. The prevalence of asymptomatic bacteriuria was 15%, with Escherichia coli the most prevalent organism. The likelihood ratio for detecting asymptomatic bacteriuria with a positive dipslide test was 225 (95% confidence interval [CI] 113-449), increasing the probability of asymptomatic bacteriuria to 98%; the likelihood ratio for a negative dipslide test was 0.02 (95% CI 0.01-0.05), reducing the probability of bacteriuria to less than 1%. The positive likelihood ratio of leukocyte esterase and nitrite dipsticks (when both or either one was positive) was 6.95 (95% CI 5.80-8.33), increasing the probability of bacteriuria to only 54%; the negative likelihood ratio was 0.50 (95% CI 0.45-0.57), reducing the probability to 8%. A pregnant woman with a positive dipslide test is very likely to have a definitive diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria, whereas a negative result effectively rules out the presence of bacteriuria. Dipsticks that measure nitrites and leukocyte esterase have low sensitivity for use in screening for asymptomatic bacteriuria during gestation. ISRCTN, isrctn.org, 1196608 II.

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Longitudinal profiles of back pain across adulthood and their relationship with childhood factors: evidence from the 1946 British birth cohort

PubMed Central

Muthuri, Stella G.; Kuh, Diana; Cooper, Rachel

2018-01-01

Abstract This study aimed to (1) characterise long-term profiles of back pain across adulthood and (2) examine whether childhood risk factors were associated with these profiles, using data from 3271 participants in the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development. A longitudinal latent class analysis was conducted on binary outcomes of back pain at ages 31, 36, 43, 53, 60 to 64, and 68 years. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine associations between selected childhood risk factors and class membership; adjusted for sex, adult body size, health status and behaviours, socioeconomic position, and family history of back pain. Four profiles of back pain were identified: no or occasional pain (57.7%), early-adulthood only (16.1%), mid-adulthood onset (16.9%), and persistent (9.4%). The “no or occasional” profile was treated as the referent category in subsequent analyses. After adjustment, taller height at age 7 years was associated with a higher likelihood of early-adulthood only (relative risk ratio per 1 SD increase in height = 1.31 [95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.65]) and persistent pain (relative risk ratio = 1.33 [95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.74]) in women (P for sex interaction = 0.01). Factors associated with an increased risk of persistent pain in both sexes were abdominal pain, poorest care in childhood, and poorer maternal health. Abdominal pain and poorest housing quality were also associated with an increased likelihood of mid-adulthood onset pain. These findings suggest that there are different long-term profiles of back pain, each of which is associated with different early life risk factors. This highlights the potential importance of early life interventions for the prevention and management of back pain. PMID:29408834

Clinical accuracy of tympanic thermometer and noncontact infrared skin thermometer in pediatric practice: an alternative for axillary digital thermometer.

PubMed

Apa, Hurşit; Gözmen, Salih; Bayram, Nuri; Çatkoğlu, Asl; Devrim, Fatma; Karaarslan, Utku; Günay, İlker; Ünal, Nurettin; Devrim, İlker

2013-09-01

The aim of this study was to compare the body temperature measurements of infrared tympanic and forehead noncontact thermometers with the axillary digital thermometer. Randomly selected 50 pediatric patients who were hospitalized in Dr Behcet Uz Children's Training and Research Hospital, Pediatric Infectious Disease Unit, between March 2012 and September 2012 were included in the study. Body temperature measurements were performed using an axillary thermometer (Microlife MT 3001), a tympanic thermometer (Microlife Ear Thermometer IR 100), and a noncontact thermometer (ThermoFlash LX-26). Fifty patients participated in this study. We performed 1639 temperature readings for every method. The average difference between the mean (SD) of both axillary and tympanic temperatures was -0.20°C (0.61°C) (95% confidence interval, -1.41°C to 1.00°C). The average difference between the mean (SD) of both axillary and forehead temperatures was -0.38 (0.55°C) (95% confidence interval, -1.47°C to 0.70°C). The Bland-Altman plot showed that most of the data points were tightly clustered around the zero line of the difference between the 2 temperature readings. With the use of the axillary method as the criterion standard, positive likelihood ratios were 17.9 and 16.5 and negative likelihood ratios were 0.2 and 0.4 for tympanic and forehead measurements, respectively. The results demonstrated that the infrared tympanic thermometer could be a good option in the measurement of fever in the pediatric population. The noncontact infrared thermometer is very useful for the screening of fever in the pediatric population, but it must be used with caution because it has a high value of bias.

External Validation of Fatty Liver Index for Identifying Ultrasonographic Fatty Liver in a Large-Scale Cross-Sectional Study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Fang, Kuan-Chieh; Wang, Yuan-Chen; Huo, Teh-Ia; Huang, Yi-Hsiang; Yang, Hwai-I; Su, Chien-Wei; Lin, Han-Chieh; Lee, Fa-Yauh; Wu, Jaw-Ching; Lee, Shou-Dong

2015-01-01

Background and Aims The fatty liver index (FLI) is an algorithm involving the waist circumference, body mass index, and serum levels of triglyceride and gamma-glutamyl transferase to identify fatty liver. Although some studies have attempted to validate the FLI, few studies have been conducted for external validation among Asians. We attempted to validate FLI to predict ultrasonographic fatty liver in Taiwanese subjects. Methods We enrolled consecutive subjects who received health check-up services at the Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2002 to 2009. Ultrasonography was applied to diagnose fatty liver. The ability of the FLI to detect ultrasonographic fatty liver was assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results Among the 29,797 subjects enrolled in this study, fatty liver was diagnosed in 44.5% of the population. Subjects with ultrasonographic fatty liver had a significantly higher FLI than those without fatty liver by multivariate analysis (odds ratio 1.045; 95% confidence interval, CI 1.044–1.047, p< 0.001). Moreover, FLI had the best discriminative ability to identify patients with ultrasonographic fatty liver (AUROC: 0.827, 95% confidence interval, 0.822–0.831). An FLI < 25 (negative likelihood ratio (LR−) 0.32) for males and <10 (LR− 0.26) for females rule out ultrasonographic fatty liver. Moreover, an FLI ≥ 35 (positive likelihood ratio (LR+) 3.12) for males and ≥ 20 (LR+ 4.43) for females rule in ultrasonographic fatty liver. Conclusions FLI could accurately identify ultrasonographic fatty liver in a large-scale population in Taiwan but with lower cut-off value than the Western population. Meanwhile the cut-off value was lower in females than in males. PMID:25781622

Frequency of and Factors Associated With Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Periodic Limb Movements in Stroke and TIA Patients.

PubMed

Gadodia, Gaurav; Rangaraju, Srikant; Raza, Syed A; Razzak, Ammar; Marmarchi, Labib; Davis, Brittaine; Henriquez, Laura; Trotti, Lynn M; Rye, David; Nahab, Fadi

2018-03-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and periodic limb movements (PLMs) have been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. There is limited data on the relationship between OSA and PLMs with atrial fibrillation and resistant hypertension in stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients. Consecutive stroke and TIA patients referred by a vascular neurologist for diagnostic polysomnography (PSG) from September 1, 2012 to August 31, 2015 were included in a retrospective analysis. Baseline clinical characteristics, PSG results and outcomes were collected to identify the frequency of and factors associated with PLMs (mild 5 to 10/h; severe ≥15/h), PLM arousals (≥5/h) and moderate-severe OSA (apna-hypopnea Index ≥15) including atrial fibrillation and resistant hypertension. Among 103 patients (mean age, 60±15 y; 50% female; 61% nonwhites; 77% ischemic stroke; 23% resistant hypertension) who underwent PSG, 20% had mild PLMs, 28% had severe PLMs, 14% had PLM arousals, and 22% had moderate-severe OSA. Factors associated with moderate-severe OSA included older age (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.11) and presence of atrial fibrillation (odds ratio, 4.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-15.44). Nonwhite race was associated with lower likelihood of mild and severe PLMs, whereas female sex was associated with lower likelihood of PLM arousals. OSA and PLMs were not associated with resistant hypertension. A significant number of stroke and TIA patients who underwent PSG have PLMs and moderate-severe OSA. Stroke and TIA patients with atrial fibrillation are more likely to have moderate-severe OSA and may benefit from PSG evaluation.

Cut points of muscle strength associated with metabolic syndrome in men.

PubMed

Sénéchal, Martin; McGavock, Jonathan M; Church, Timothy S; Lee, Duck-Chul; Earnest, Conrad P; Sui, Xuemei; Blair, Steven N

2014-08-01

The loss of muscle strength with age increases the likelihood of chronic conditions, including metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, the minimal threshold of muscle strength at which the risk for MetS increases has never been established. This study aimed to identify a threshold of muscle strength associated with MetS in men. We created receiver operating curves for muscle strength and the risk of MetS from a cross-sectional sample of 5685 men age <50 yr and 1541 men age ≥50 yr enrolled in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. The primary outcome measure, the MetS, was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Upper and lower body muscle strength was treated as a composite measure of one-repetition maximum tests on bench and leg press and scaled to body weight. Low muscle strength was defined as the lowest age-specific 20th percentile, whereas high muscle strength was defined as composite muscle strength above the 20th percentile. In men aged <50 yr, the odds of MetS were 2.20-fold (95% confidence interval = 1.89-2.54) higher in those with low muscle strength, independent of age, smoking, and alcohol intake. The strength of this association was similar for men age ≥50 yr (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval = 1.62-2.74). In men age < 50 yr, the composite strength threshold associated with MetS was 2.57 kg·kg body weight, whereas in men age ≥ 50 yr the threshold was 2.35 kg·kg body weight. This study is the first to identify a threshold of muscle strength associated with an increased likelihood of MetS in men. Measures of muscle strength may help identify men at risk of chronic disease.

Changes in prescription contraceptive use, 1995-2002: the effect of insurance status.

PubMed

Culwell, Kelly R; Feinglass, Joe

2007-12-01

To examine changes in prescription contraception use between 1995 and 2002 by insurance status among women at risk for unintended pregnancy. Data from the National Survey of Family Growth, including 4,767 women at risk of unintended pregnancy in 1995 and 3,569 in 2002, were used to evaluate changes in primary contraception methods by health insurance status and year of survey. Logistic regression models tested differences in the likelihood of prescription contraceptive use among privately insured, publicly insured, and uninsured women in each year, after controlling for age, race and ethnicity, education, income, employment, marital status, number of children, religion, and self reported overall health. Overall prescription contraceptive use increased between 1995 and 2002 by 3% (48.9% to 51.9%, P=.049). Nonuse of contraception also increased (11.6% to 16.1%, P<.001). The change in the likelihood of prescription contraceptive use was greatest and only significant among privately insured women (+5.5%, P=.002). In multiple regression analysis, women in 1995 were 10% less likely to report use of prescription contraceptives compared with women in 2002 (relative risk 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.82-0.98), and uninsured women were more than 20% less likely to report prescription contraceptive use compared with privately insured women (relative risk 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.90). Prescription contraceptive use increased most significantly among privately insured women between 1995 and 2002, potentially reflecting state mandates enacted during that period requiring contraceptive coverage by private insurers. It is important for clinicians to understand these differences and address issues of insurance coverage with patients when discussing contraceptive options. III.

Better Nurse Staffing and Nurse Work Environments Associated With Increased Survival of In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patients

PubMed Central

McHugh, Matthew D.; Rochman, Monica F.; Sloane, Douglas M.; Berg, Robert A.; Mancini, Mary E.; Nadkarni, Vinay M.; Merchant, Raina M.; Aiken, Linda H.

2015-01-01

Background Although nurses are the most likely first responders to witness an in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) and provide treatment, little research has been undertaken to determine what features of nursing are related to cardiac arrest outcomes. Objectives To determine the association between nurse staffing, nurse work environments, and IHCA survival. Research Design Cross-sectional study of data from: (1) the American Heart Association’s Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation database; (2) the University of Pennsylvania Multi-State Nursing Care and and Patient Safety; and (3) the American Hospital Association annual survey. Logistic regression models were used to determine the association of the features of nursing and IHCA survival to discharge after adjusting for hospital and patient characteristics. Subjects A total of 11,160 adult patients aged 18 and older between 2005 and 2007 in 75 hospitals in 4 states (Pennsylvania, Florida, California, and New Jersey). Results Each additional patient per nurse on medical-surgical units was associated with a 5% lower likelihood of surviving IHCA to discharge (odds ratio = 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.91–0.99). Further, patients cared for in hospitals with poor work environments had a 16% lower likelihood of IHCA survival (odds ratio = 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.71–0.99) than patients cared for in hospitals with better work environments. Conclusions Better work environments and decreased patient-to-nurse ratios on medical-surgical units are associated with higher odds of patient survival after an IHCA. These results add to a large body of literature suggesting that outcomes are better when nurses have a more reasonable workload and work in good hospital work environments. Improving nurse working conditions holds promise for improving survival following IHCA. PMID:26783858

Effectiveness of an Integrated Approach to HIV and Hypertension Care in Rural South Africa: Controlled Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

PubMed

Ameh, Soter; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin; Musenge, Eustasius; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen; Gómez-Olivé, Francesc Xavier

2017-08-01

South Africa faces a dual burden of HIV/AIDS and noncommunicable diseases. In 2011, a pilot integrated chronic disease management (ICDM) model was introduced by the National Health Department into selected primary health care (PHC) facilities. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness of the ICDM model in controlling patients' CD4 counts (>350 cells/mm) and blood pressure [BP (<140/90 mm Hg)] in PHC facilities in the Bushbuckridge municipality, South Africa. A controlled interrupted time-series study was conducted using the data from patients' clinical records collected multiple times before and after the ICDM model was initiated in PHC facilities in Bushbuckridge. Patients ≥18 years were recruited by proportionate sampling from the pilot (n = 435) and comparing (n = 443) PHC facilities from 2011 to 2013. Health outcomes for patients were retrieved from facility records for 30 months. We performed controlled segmented regression to model the monthly averages of individuals' propensity scores using autoregressive moving average model at 5% significance level. The pilot facilities had 6% greater likelihood of controlling patients' CD4 counts than the comparison facilities (coefficient = 0.057; 95% confidence interval: 0.056 to 0.058; P < 0.001). Compared with the comparison facilities, the pilot facilities had 1.0% greater likelihood of controlling patients' BP (coefficient = 0.010; 95% confidence interval: 0.003 to 0.016; P = 0.002). Application of the model had a small effect in controlling patients' CD4 counts and BP, but showed no overall clinical benefit for the patients; hence, the need to more extensively leverage the HIV program for hypertension treatment.

A threshold method for immunological correlates of protection

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Immunological correlates of protection are biological markers such as disease-specific antibodies which correlate with protection against disease and which are measurable with immunological assays. It is common in vaccine research and in setting immunization policy to rely on threshold values for the correlate where the accepted threshold differentiates between individuals who are considered to be protected against disease and those who are susceptible. Examples where thresholds are used include development of a new generation 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine which was required in clinical trials to meet accepted thresholds for the older 7-valent vaccine, and public health decision making on vaccination policy based on long-term maintenance of protective thresholds for Hepatitis A, rubella, measles, Japanese encephalitis and others. Despite widespread use of such thresholds in vaccine policy and research, few statistical approaches have been formally developed which specifically incorporate a threshold parameter in order to estimate the value of the protective threshold from data. Methods We propose a 3-parameter statistical model called the a:b model which incorporates parameters for a threshold and constant but different infection probabilities below and above the threshold estimated using profile likelihood or least squares methods. Evaluation of the estimated threshold can be performed by a significance test for the existence of a threshold using a modified likelihood ratio test which follows a chi-squared distribution with 3 degrees of freedom, and confidence intervals for the threshold can be obtained by bootstrapping. The model also permits assessment of relative risk of infection in patients achieving the threshold or not. Goodness-of-fit of the a:b model may be assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow approach. The model is applied to 15 datasets from published clinical trials on pertussis, respiratory syncytial virus and varicella. Results Highly significant thresholds with p-values less than 0.01 were found for 13 of the 15 datasets. Considerable variability was seen in the widths of confidence intervals. Relative risks indicated around 70% or better protection in 11 datasets and relevance of the estimated threshold to imply strong protection. Goodness-of-fit was generally acceptable. Conclusions The a:b model offers a formal statistical method of estimation of thresholds differentiating susceptible from protected individuals which has previously depended on putative statements based on visual inspection of data. PMID:23448322

Feasibility of ferumoxytol-enhanced neonatal and young infant cardiac MRI without general anesthesia.

PubMed

Lai, Lillian M; Cheng, Joseph Y; Alley, Marcus T; Zhang, Tao; Lustig, Michael; Vasanawala, Shreyas S

2017-05-01

To assess the feasibility of ferumoxytol-enhanced anesthesia-free cardiac MRI in neonates and young infants for complex congenital heart disease (CHD). With Institutional Review Board approval, 21 consecutive neonates and young infants (1 day to 11 weeks old; median age of 3 days) who underwent a rapid two-sequence (MR angiography [MRA] and four-dimensional [4D] flow) MRI protocol with intravenous ferumoxytol without sedation (n = 17) or light sedation (n = 4) at 3 Tesla (T) (except one case at 1.5T) between June 2014 and February 2016 were retrospectively identified. Medical records were reviewed for indication, any complications, if further diagnostic imaging was performed after MRI, and surgical findings. Two radiologists scored the images in two sessions on a 5-point scale for overall image quality and delineation of various anatomical structures. Confidence interval of proportions for likelihood of requiring additional diagnostic imaging after MRI was determined. For the possibility of reducing the protocol to a single rapid sequence, Wilcoxon-rank sum test was used to assess whether 4D flow and MRA significantly differed in anatomical delineation. One of 21 patients (4.8%, 80% confidence interval 0-11%) required additional imaging, a computed tomography angiography to assess lung parenchyma and peripheral pulmonary arteries. Only 1 of 13 patients (7.7%) with operative confirmation had a minor discrepancy between radiology and operative reports (80% confidence interval 0-17%). 4D flow was significantly superior to MRA (P < 0.05) for the evaluation of systemic arteries, valves, ventricular trabeculae, and overall quality. Using Cohen's kappa coefficient, there was good interobserver agreement for the evaluation of systemic arteries by 4D flow (κ = 0.782), and systemic veins and pulmonary arteries by MRA (κ > 0.6). Overall 4D flow measurements (mean κ = 0.64-0.74) had better internal agreement compared with MRA (mean κ = 0.30-0.64). Ferumoxytol-enhanced cardiac MRI, without anesthesia, is feasible for the evaluation of complex CHD in neonates and young infants, with a low likelihood of need for additional diagnostic studies. The decreased risk by avoiding anesthesia must be balanced against the potential for adverse reactions with ferumoxytol. 2 J. MAGN. RESON. IMAGING 2017;45:1407-1418. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

A readers' guide to the interpretation of diagnostic test properties: clinical example of sepsis.

PubMed

Fischer, Joachim E; Bachmann, Lucas M; Jaeschke, Roman

2003-07-01

One of the most challenging practical and daily problems in intensive care medicine is the interpretation of the results from diagnostic tests. In neonatology and pediatric intensive care the early diagnosis of potentially life-threatening infections is a particularly important issue. A plethora of tests have been suggested to improve diagnostic decision making in the clinical setting of infection which is a clinical example used in this article. Several criteria that are critical to evidence-based appraisal of published data are often not adhered to during the study or in reporting. To enhance the critical appraisal on articles on diagnostic tests we discuss various measures of test accuracy: sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, likelihood ratios, pretest probability, posttest probability, and diagnostic odds ratio. We suggest the following minimal requirements for reporting on the diagnostic accuracy of tests: a plot of the raw data, multilevel likelihood ratios, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the cutoff yielding the highest discriminative ability. For critical appraisal it is mandatory to report confidence intervals for each of these measures. Moreover, to allow comparison to the readers' patient population authors should provide data on study population characteristics, in particular on the spectrum of diseases and illness severity.

Maximum likelihood bolometric tomography for the determination of the uncertainties in the radiation emission on JET TOKAMAK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craciunescu, Teddy; Peluso, Emmanuele; Murari, Andrea; Gelfusa, Michela; JET Contributors

2018-05-01

The total emission of radiation is a crucial quantity to calculate the power balances and to understand the physics of any Tokamak. Bolometric systems are the main tool to measure this important physical quantity through quite sophisticated tomographic inversion methods. On the Joint European Torus, the coverage of the bolometric diagnostic, due to the availability of basically only two projection angles, is quite limited, rendering the inversion a very ill-posed mathematical problem. A new approach, based on the maximum likelihood, has therefore been developed and implemented to alleviate one of the major weaknesses of traditional tomographic techniques: the difficulty to determine routinely the confidence intervals in the results. The method has been validated by numerical simulations with phantoms to assess the quality of the results and to optimise the configuration of the parameters for the main types of emissivity encountered experimentally. The typical levels of statistical errors, which may significantly influence the quality of the reconstructions, have been identified. The systematic tests with phantoms indicate that the errors in the reconstructions are quite limited and their effect on the total radiated power remains well below 10%. A comparison with other approaches to the inversion and to the regularization has also been performed.

Increased Difficulties in Managing Stairs in Visually Impaired Older Adults: A Community-Based Survey.

PubMed

Pan, Chen-Wei; Liu, Hu; Sun, Hong-Peng; Xu, Yong

2015-01-01

Managing stairs is a challenging aspect of daily activities of living for older people. We assessed whether older adults with visual impairment (VI) have greater difficulties of managing stairs in daily lives. The study was designed as a community-based cross-sectional study based on a Chinese cohort aged 60 years and older in rural China. Visual acuity (VA) was measured in both eyes using a retro-illuminated Snellen chart with tumbling-E optotypes. VI (including blindness) was defined as presenting VA of worse than 20/60 in either eye. Having any difficulties in managing stairs was self-reported based on a question drawn from the Barthel Index. Information on participants' socioeconomic status, lifestyle-related factors, diseases histories and medication intake was collected using a questionnaire. The Barthel Index, Activities of Daily Living questionnaire was completed by 4597 (99.7%) participants including 2218 men and 2379 women. The age of the participants ranged from 60 to 93 years with a mean of 67.6 ± 6.3 years. In age and gender adjusted models, adults with VI had a higher likelihood of having difficulties in managing stairs (odds ratio [OR] = 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0, 3.7) compared with those without. The association of VI with the likelihood of having difficulties in managing stairs was stronger in older adults who lived alone (OR = 3.2; 95%CI 1.8, 4.5) compared with those who lived with other family members (OR = 2.0; 95%CI 1.3, 4.3). Compared with hypertension, diabetes, obesity and cognitive dysfunction, VI had the greatest impact on people's abilities of managing stairs. VI was associated with an increased likelihood of having difficulties in managing stairs, especially in those who lived alone. However, whether the finding could be extrapolated to other populations warrants further studies as different environmental exposures such as illumination and types of stairs may alter the association observed in this study.

Nonparametric change point estimation for survival distributions with a partially constant hazard rate.

PubMed

Brazzale, Alessandra R; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Krügel, Stefanie; Schiergens, Tobias S; Trentzsch, Heiko; Hartl, Wolfgang

2018-04-05

We present a new method for estimating a change point in the hazard function of a survival distribution assuming a constant hazard rate after the change point and a decreasing hazard rate before the change point. Our method is based on fitting a stump regression to p values for testing hazard rates in small time intervals. We present three real data examples describing survival patterns of severely ill patients, whose excess mortality rates are known to persist far beyond hospital discharge. For designing survival studies in these patients and for the definition of hospital performance metrics (e.g. mortality), it is essential to define adequate and objective end points. The reliable estimation of a change point will help researchers to identify such end points. By precisely knowing this change point, clinicians can distinguish between the acute phase with high hazard (time elapsed after admission and before the change point was reached), and the chronic phase (time elapsed after the change point) in which hazard is fairly constant. We show in an extensive simulation study that maximum likelihood estimation is not robust in this setting, and we evaluate our new estimation strategy including bootstrap confidence intervals and finite sample bias correction.

Exact one-sided confidence limits for the difference between two correlated proportions.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-08-15

We construct exact and optimal one-sided upper and lower confidence bounds for the difference between two probabilities based on matched binary pairs using well-established optimality theory of Buehler. Starting with five different approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust them to have coverage probability exactly equal to the desired nominal level and then compare the resulting exact limits by their mean size. Exact limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are preferred and recommended for practical use.

DEVELOPING ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVAL METHODS FOR DIRECT IMAGING SPECTROSCOPY OF GAS GIANTS IN REFLECTED LIGHT. I. METHANE ABUNDANCES AND BASIC CLOUD PROPERTIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lupu, Roxana E.; Marley, Mark S.; Zahnle, Kevin

Upcoming space-based coronagraphic instruments in the next decade will perform reflected light spectroscopy and photometry of cool directly imaged extrasolar giant planets. We are developing a new atmospheric retrieval methodology to help assess the science return and inform the instrument design for such future missions, and ultimately interpret the resulting observations. Our retrieval technique employs a geometric albedo model coupled with both a Markov chain Monte Carlo Ensemble Sampler ( emcee ) and a multimodal nested sampling algorithm ( MultiNest ) to map the posterior distribution. This combination makes the global evidence calculation more robust for any given model andmore » highlights possible discrepancies in the likelihood maps. As a proof of concept, our current atmospheric model contains one or two cloud layers, methane as a major absorber, and a H{sub 2}–He background gas. This 6-to-9 parameter model is appropriate for Jupiter-like planets and can be easily expanded in the future. In addition to deriving the marginal likelihood distribution and confidence intervals for the model parameters, we perform model selection to determine the significance of methane and cloud detection as a function of expected signal-to-noise ratio in the presence of spectral noise correlations. After internal validation, the method is applied to realistic spectra of Jupiter, Saturn, and HD 99492c, a model observing target. We find that the presence or absence of clouds and methane can be determined with high confidence, while parameter uncertainties are model dependent and correlated. Such general methods will also be applicable to the interpretation of direct imaging spectra of cloudy terrestrial planets.« less

SPSS macros to compare any two fitted values from a regression model.

PubMed

Weaver, Bruce; Dubois, Sacha

2012-12-01

In regression models with first-order terms only, the coefficient for a given variable is typically interpreted as the change in the fitted value of Y for a one-unit increase in that variable, with all other variables held constant. Therefore, each regression coefficient represents the difference between two fitted values of Y. But the coefficients represent only a fraction of the possible fitted value comparisons that might be of interest to researchers. For many fitted value comparisons that are not captured by any of the regression coefficients, common statistical software packages do not provide the standard errors needed to compute confidence intervals or carry out statistical tests-particularly in more complex models that include interactions, polynomial terms, or regression splines. We describe two SPSS macros that implement a matrix algebra method for comparing any two fitted values from a regression model. The !OLScomp and !MLEcomp macros are for use with models fitted via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimation, respectively. The output from the macros includes the standard error of the difference between the two fitted values, a 95% confidence interval for the difference, and a corresponding statistical test with its p-value.

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

Gender Differences in the relationship between carbonated sugar-sweetened beverage intake and the likelihood of hypertension according to obesity.

PubMed

Song, Hong Ji; Paek, Yu Jin; Choi, Min Kyu; Yoo, Ki-Bong; Kang, Jae-Heon; Lee, Hae-Jeung

2017-06-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between hypertension and carbonated sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) intake according to gender and obesity. The study used data from 2007, 2008 and 2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. A total of 9869 subjects (men = 3845 and women = 6024) were included. SSB intakes were calculated from food frequency questionnaires. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) for hypertension were assessed using survey logistic regression and multivariable adjusted models. A total of 14.5 % of individuals were classified as having hypertension. The likelihood of hypertension in the third, fourth and fifth quintiles for SSB intake increased to OR 1.00, 1.20 and 1.42 respectively, after adjusting for confounding factors. Compared to the participants in the lowest tertile for SSB intake, participants in the third tertile showed an increased likelihood of hypertension with ORs (CI) of 2.00 (1.21-3.31) and 1.75 (1.23-2.49) for obese women and non-obese men, respectively. The present study showed gender differences in the relationship between carbonated SSB intake and the hypertension according to obesity.

Halo-independent determination of the unmodulated WIMP signal in DAMA: the isotropic case

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gondolo, Paolo; Scopel, Stefano, E-mail: paolo.gondolo@utah.edu, E-mail: scopel@sogang.ac.kr

2017-09-01

We present a halo-independent determination of the unmodulated signal corresponding to the DAMA modulation if interpreted as due to dark matter weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs). First we show how a modulated signal gives information on the WIMP velocity distribution function in the Galactic rest frame from which the unmodulated signal descends. Then we describe a mathematically-sound profile likelihood analysis in which the likelihood is profiled over a continuum of nuisance parameters (namely, the WIMP velocity distribution). As a first application of the method, which is very general and valid for any class of velocity distributions, we restrict the analysismore » to velocity distributions that are isotropic in the Galactic frame. In this way we obtain halo-independent maximum-likelihood estimates and confidence intervals for the DAMA unmodulated signal. We find that the estimated unmodulated signal is in line with expectations for a WIMP-induced modulation and is compatible with the DAMA background+signal rate. Specifically, for the isotropic case we find that the modulated amplitude ranges between a few percent and about 25% of the unmodulated amplitude, depending on the WIMP mass.« less

High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: 'Nooravaran Salamat' Mobile Eye Clinic experience.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Rezvan, Farhad; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Abdollahi, Majid; Hashemi, Maryam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2013-01-01

The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia and determinants were determined in a rural population of Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 13 of the 83 villages of Khaf County in the north east of Iran were selected. Data from 2001 people over the age of 15 years were analysed. Visual acuity measurement, non-cycloplegic refraction and eye examinations were done at the Mobile Eye Clinic. The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia based on spherical equivalent worse than -0.5 dioptre and +0.5 dioptre, respectively. The prevalence of myopia, hyperopia and anisometropia in the total study sample was 28% (95% confidence interval: 25.9-30.2), 19.2% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-21.1), and 11.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.0-13.1), respectively. In the over 40 population, the prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 32.5% (95% confidence interval: 28.9-36.1) and 27.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.5-31.3), respectively. In the multiple regression model for this group, myopia strongly correlated with cataract (odds ratio = 1.98 and 95% confidence interval: 1.33-2.93), and hyperopia only correlated with age (P < 0.001). The prevalence of high myopia and high hyperopia was 1.5% and 4.6%. In the multiple regression model, anisometropia significantly correlated with age (odds ratio = 1.04) and cataract (odds ratio = 5.2) (P < 0.001). The prevalence of myopia and anisometropia was higher than that in previous studies in urban population of Iran, especially in the elderly. Cataract was the only variable that correlated with myopia and anisometropia. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Priorities for treatment, care and information if faced with serious illness: a comparative population-based survey in seven European countries.

PubMed

Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara; Calanzani, Natalia; Gao, Wei; Bausewein, Claudia; Daveson, Barbara A; Deliens, Luc; Ferreira, Pedro L; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Simon, Steffen T; Cohen, Joachim; Harding, Richard

2014-02-01

Health-care costs are growing, with little population-based data about people's priorities for end-of-life care, to guide service development and aid discussions. We examined variations in people's priorities for treatment, care and information across seven European countries. Telephone survey of a random sample of households; we asked respondents their priorities if 'faced with a serious illness, like cancer, with limited time to live' and used multivariable logistic regressions to identify associated factors. Members of the general public aged ≥ 16 years residing in England, Flanders, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In total, 9344 individuals were interviewed. Most people chose 'improve quality of life for the time they had left', ranging from 57% (95% confidence interval: 55%-60%, Italy) to 81% (95% confidence interval: 79%-83%, Spain). Only 2% (95% confidence interval: 1%-3%, England) to 6% (95% confidence interval: 4%-7%, Flanders) said extending life was most important, and 15% (95% confidence interval: 13%-17%, Spain) to 40% (95% confidence interval: 37%-43%, Italy) said quality and extension were equally important. Prioritising quality of life was associated with higher education in all countries (odds ratio = 1.3 (Flanders) to 7.9 (Italy)), experience of caregiving or bereavement (England, Germany, Portugal), prioritising pain/symptom control over having a positive attitude and preferring death in a hospice/palliative care unit. Those prioritising extending life had the highest home death preference of all groups. Health status did not affect priorities. Across all countries, extending life was prioritised by a minority, regardless of health status. Treatment and care needs to be reoriented with patient education and palliative care becoming mainstream for serious conditions such as cancer.

Factors predicting a home death among home palliative care recipients

PubMed Central

Ko, Ming-Chung; Huang, Sheng-Jean; Chen, Chu-Chieh; Chang, Yu-Ping; Lien, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Jia-Yi; Woung, Lin-Chung; Chan, Shang-Yih

2017-01-01

Abstract Awareness of factors affecting the place of death could improve communication between healthcare providers and patients and their families regarding patient preferences and the feasibility of dying in the preferred place. This study aimed to evaluate factors predicting home death among home palliative care recipients. This is a population-based study using a national representative sample retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Subjects receiving home palliative care, from 2010 to 2012, were analyzed to evaluate the association between a home death and various characteristics related to illness, individual, and health care utilization. A multiple-logistic regression model was used to assess the independent effect of various characteristics on the likelihood of a home death. The overall rate of a home death for home palliative care recipients was 43.6%. Age; gender; urbanization of the area where the patients lived; illness; the total number of home visits by all health care professionals; the number of home visits by nurses; utilization of nasogastric tube, endotracheal tube, or indwelling urinary catheter; the number of emergency department visits; and admission to intensive care unit in previous 1 year were not significantly associated with the risk of a home death. Physician home visits increased the likelihood of a home death. Compared with subjects without physician home visits (31.4%) those with 1 physician home visit (53.0%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 3.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.93–5.42) and those with ≥2 physician home visits (43.9%, AOR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.06–4.70) had higher likelihood of a home death. Compared with subjects with hospitalization 0 to 6 times in previous 1 year, those with hospitalization ≥7 times in previous 1 year (AOR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.34–0.95) had lower likelihood of a home death. Among home palliative care recipients, physician home visits increased the likelihood of a home death. Hospitalizations ≥7 times in previous 1 year decreased the likelihood of a home death. PMID:29019887

Statistical inference for tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio.

PubMed

Wu, Jianrong

2010-09-01

The tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio is commonly used to quantify treatment effects in drug screening tumor xenograft experiments. The T/C ratio is converted to an antitumor activity rating using an arbitrary cutoff point and often without any formal statistical inference. Here, we applied a nonparametric bootstrap method and a small sample likelihood ratio statistic to make a statistical inference of the T/C ratio, including both hypothesis testing and a confidence interval estimate. Furthermore, sample size and power are also discussed for statistical design of tumor xenograft experiments. Tumor xenograft data from an actual experiment were analyzed to illustrate the application.

Computer Modeling to Evaluate the Impact of Technology Changes on Resident Procedural Volume.

PubMed

Grenda, Tyler R; Ballard, Tiffany N S; Obi, Andrea T; Pozehl, William; Seagull, F Jacob; Chen, Ryan; Cohn, Amy M; Daskin, Mark S; Reddy, Rishindra M

2016-12-01

As resident "index" procedures change in volume due to advances in technology or reliance on simulation, it may be difficult to ensure trainees meet case requirements. Training programs are in need of metrics to determine how many residents their institutional volume can support. As a case study of how such metrics can be applied, we evaluated a case distribution simulation model to examine program-level mediastinoscopy and endobronchial ultrasound (EBUS) volumes needed to train thoracic surgery residents. A computer model was created to simulate case distribution based on annual case volume, number of trainees, and rotation length. Single institutional case volume data (2011-2013) were applied, and 10 000 simulation years were run to predict the likelihood (95% confidence interval) of all residents (4 trainees) achieving board requirements for operative volume during a 2-year program. The mean annual mediastinoscopy volume was 43. In a simulation of pre-2012 board requirements (thoracic pathway, 25; cardiac pathway, 10), there was a 6% probability of all 4 residents meeting requirements. Under post-2012 requirements (thoracic, 15; cardiac, 10), however, the likelihood increased to 88%. When EBUS volume (mean 19 cases per year) was concurrently evaluated in the post-2012 era (thoracic, 10; cardiac, 0), the likelihood of all 4 residents meeting case requirements was only 23%. This model provides a metric to predict the probability of residents meeting case requirements in an era of changing volume by accounting for unpredictable and inequitable case distribution. It could be applied across operations, procedures, or disease diagnoses and may be particularly useful in developing resident curricula and schedules.

Maximum likelihood estimation of correction for dilution bias in simple linear regression using replicates from subjects with extreme first measurements.

PubMed

Berglund, Lars; Garmo, Hans; Lindbäck, Johan; Svärdsudd, Kurt; Zethelius, Björn

2008-09-30

The least-squares estimator of the slope in a simple linear regression model is biased towards zero when the predictor is measured with random error. A corrected slope may be estimated by adding data from a reliability study, which comprises a subset of subjects from the main study. The precision of this corrected slope depends on the design of the reliability study and estimator choice. Previous work has assumed that the reliability study constitutes a random sample from the main study. A more efficient design is to use subjects with extreme values on their first measurement. Previously, we published a variance formula for the corrected slope, when the correction factor is the slope in the regression of the second measurement on the first. In this paper we show that both designs improve by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The precision gain is explained by the inclusion of data from all subjects for estimation of the predictor's variance and by the use of the second measurement for estimation of the covariance between response and predictor. The gain of MLE enhances with stronger true relationship between response and predictor and with lower precision in the predictor measurements. We present a real data example on the relationship between fasting insulin, a surrogate marker, and true insulin sensitivity measured by a gold-standard euglycaemic insulin clamp, and simulations, where the behavior of profile-likelihood-based confidence intervals is examined. MLE was shown to be a robust estimator for non-normal distributions and efficient for small sample situations. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Composite Partial Likelihood Estimation Under Length-Biased Sampling, With Application to a Prevalent Cohort Study of Dementia

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing

2013-01-01

The Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) employed a prevalent cohort design to study survival after onset of dementia, where patients with dementia were sampled and the onset time of dementia was determined retrospectively. The prevalent cohort sampling scheme favors individuals who survive longer. Thus, the observed survival times are subject to length bias. In recent years, there has been a rising interest in developing estimation procedures for prevalent cohort survival data that not only account for length bias but also actually exploit the incidence distribution of the disease to improve efficiency. This article considers semiparametric estimation of the Cox model for the time from dementia onset to death under a stationarity assumption with respect to the disease incidence. Under the stationarity condition, the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation is expected to be fully efficient yet difficult to perform for statistical practitioners, as the likelihood depends on the baseline hazard function in a complicated way. Moreover, the asymptotic properties of the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator are not well-studied. Motivated by the composite likelihood method (Besag 1974), we develop a composite partial likelihood method that retains the simplicity of the popular partial likelihood estimator and can be easily performed using standard statistical software. When applied to the CSHA data, the proposed method estimates a significant difference in survival between the vascular dementia group and the possible Alzheimer’s disease group, while the partial likelihood method for left-truncated and right-censored data yields a greater standard error and a 95% confidence interval covering 0, thus highlighting the practical value of employing a more efficient methodology. To check the assumption of stable disease for the CSHA data, we also present new graphical and numerical tests in the article. The R code used to obtain the maximum composite partial likelihood estimator for the CSHA data is available in the online Supplementary Material, posted on the journal web site. PMID:24000265

Changes in Influenza Vaccination Rates After Withdrawal of Live Vaccine.

PubMed

Robison, Steve G; Dunn, Aaron G; Richards, Deborah L; Leman, Richard F

2017-11-01

Before the start of the 2016-2017 influenza season, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices withdrew its recommendation promoting the use of live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs). There was concern that this might lessen the likelihood that those with a previous LAIV would return for an injectable influenza vaccine (IIV) and that child influenza immunization rates would decrease overall. Using Oregon's statewide immunization registry, the ALERT Immunization Information System, child influenza immunization rates were compared across the 2012-2013 through 2016-2017 seasons. Additionally, matched cohorts of children were selected based on receipt of either an LAIV or an IIV during the 2015-2016 season. Differences between the IIV and LAIV cohorts in returning for the IIV in the 2016-2017 season were assessed. Overall, influenza immunization rates for children aged 2 to 17 years were unchanged between the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 seasons. Children aged 3 to 10 with a previous IIV were 1.03 (95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.04) times more likely to return for an IIV in 2016-2017 than those with a previous LAIV, whereas children aged 11 to 17 years with a previous IIV were 1.08 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to -1.09) times more likely to return. Withdrawal of the LAIV recommendation was not associated with an overall change in child influenza immunization rates across seasons. Children with a previous (2015-2016) IIV were slightly more likely to return during the 2016-2017 season for influenza immunization than those with a previous LAIV. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Maternal Metabolic Conditions and Risk for Autism and Other Neurodevelopmental Disorders

PubMed Central

Walker, Cheryl K.; Bremer, Andrew A.; Baker, Alice S.; Ozonoff, Sally; Hansen, Robin L.; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: We examined whether metabolic conditions (MCs) during pregnancy (diabetes, hypertension, and obesity) are associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), developmental delays (DD), or impairments in specific domains of development in the offspring. METHODS: Children aged 2 to 5 years (517 ASD, 172 DD, and 315 controls) were enrolled in the CHARGE (Childhood Autism Risks from Genetics and the Environment) study, a population-based, case-control investigation between January 2003 and June 2010. Eligible children were born in California, had parents who spoke English or Spanish, and were living with a biological parent in selected regions of California. Children’s diagnoses were confirmed by using standardized assessments. Information regarding maternal conditions was ascertained from medical records or structured interview with the mother. RESULTS: All MCs were more prevalent among case mothers compared with controls. Collectively, these conditions were associated with a higher likelihood of ASD and DD relative to controls (odds ratio: 1.61 [95% confidence interval: 1.10–2.37; odds ratio: 2.35 [95% confidence interval: 1.43–3.88], respectively). Among ASD cases, children of women with diabetes had Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) expressive language scores 0.4 SD lower than children of mothers without MCs (P < .01). Among children without ASD, those exposed to any MC scored lower on all MSEL and Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS) subscales and composites by at least 0.4 SD (P < .01 for each subscale/composite). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal MCs may be broadly associated with neurodevelopmental problems in children. With obesity rising steadily, these results appear to raise serious public health concerns. PMID:22492772

Sentiment analysis to determine the impact of online messages on smokers' choices to use varenicline.

PubMed

Cobb, Nathan K; Mays, Darren; Graham, Amanda L

2013-12-01

Social networks are a prominent component of online smoking cessation interventions. This study applied sentiment analysis-a data processing technique that codes textual data for emotional polarity-to examine how exposure to messages about the cessation drug varenicline affects smokers' decision making around its use. Data were from QuitNet, an online social network dedicated to smoking cessation and relapse prevention. Self-reported medication choice at registration and at 30 days was coded among new QuitNet registrants who participated in at least one forum discussion mentioning varenicline between January 31, 2005 and March 9, 2008. Commercially available software was used to code the sentiment of forum messages mentioning varenicline that occurred during this time frame. Logistic regression analyses examined whether forum message exposure predicted medication choice. The sample of 2132 registrants comprised mostly women (78.3%), white participants (83.4%), averaged 41.2 years of age (SD = 10.9), and smoked on average 21.5 (SD = 9.7) cigarettes/day. After adjusting for potential confounders, as exposure to positive varenicline messages outweighed negative messages, the odds of switching to varenicline (odds ratio = 2.05, 95% confidence interval = 1.66 to 2.54) and continuing to use varenicline (odds ratio = 2.46, 95% confidence interval = 1.96 to 3.10) statistically significantly increased. Sentiment analysis is a useful tool for analyzing text-based data to examine their impact on behavior change. Greater exposure to positive sentiment in online conversations about varenicline is associated with a greater likelihood that smokers will choose to use varenicline in a quit attempt.

[Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

PubMed

Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

2012-04-01

Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

Proper Antibiotic Use in a Home-Based Primary Care Population Treated for Urinary Tract Infections.

PubMed

Gee, Megan E; Ford, James; Conway, Erin L; Ott, Michael C; Sellick, John A; Mergenhagen, Kari A

2018-02-01

To evaluate the trends associated with diagnosis and treatment of urinary tract infections (UTI) in a home-based primary care population of Veterans Health System patients from 2006 to 2015. Retrospective cohort study. Veterans Healthcare System. Home-based primary care patients treated for UTI from 2006 to 2015. None. Appropriate therapy was determined based on the McGeer criteria. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine factors leading to appropriate UTI treatment. Of 366 available patients, 68 (18.6%) were tested for a UTI. Appropriate therapy occurred in 26% of patients. Allergy to any antibiotic increased the odds of appropriate treatment (odds ratio [OR] = 5.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5-23.2). Flank pain and increased urinary frequency also increased the likelihood of being treated appropriately (OR = 25.9, 95% CI 2.9-584.0 and OR = 4.49, 95% CI 0.99-21.2, respectively). Antibiotics were overused for treating UTIs in the homebound population. Patients with flank pain, increased urinary frequency, and antibiotic allergy were more likely to receive appropriate treatment. Pharmacists, therefore, have a viable opportunity to increase appropriate antibiotic prescribing in the home-based primary care population.

Social support and the likelihood of maintaining and improving levels of physical activity: the Whitehall II Study.

PubMed

Kouvonen, Anne; De Vogli, Roberto; Stafford, Mai; Shipley, Martin J; Marmot, Michael G; Cox, Tom; Vahtera, Jussi; Väänänen, Ari; Heponiemi, Tarja; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Kivimäki, Mika

2012-08-01

Evidence on the association between social support and leisure time physical activity (LTPA) is scarce and mostly based on cross-sectional data with different types of social support collapsed into a single index. The aim of this study was to investigate whether social support from the closest person was associated with LTPA. Prospective cohort study of 5395 adults (mean age 55.7 years, 3864 men) participating in the British Whitehall II study. Confiding/emotional support and practical support were assessed at baseline in 1997-99 using the Close Persons Questionnaire. LTPA was assessed at baseline and follow-up in (2002-04). Baseline covariates included socio-demographics, self-rated health, long-standing illnesses, physical functioning and common mental disorders. Among participants who reported recommended levels of LTPA at baseline, those who experienced high confiding/emotional support were more likely to report recommended levels of LTPA at follow-up [odds ratio (OR): 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.70 in a model adjusted for baseline covariates]. Among those participants who did not meet the recommended target of LTPA at baseline, high confiding/emotional support was not associated with improvement in activity levels. High practical support was associated with both maintaining (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.10-1.63) and improving (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.02-1.53) LTPA levels. These findings suggest that emotional and practical support from the closest person may help the individual to maintain the recommended level of LTPA. Practical support also predicted a change towards a more active lifestyle.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis–Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; ...

2017-04-05

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLEmore » confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. As a result, the Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.« less

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Incidence of Mastitis in the Neonatal Period in a Traditional Breastfeeding Society: Results of a Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Scott, Jane A.; Lee, Andy H.; Binns, Colin W.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: Mastitis is a painful problem experienced by breastfeeding women, especially in the first few weeks postpartum. There have been limited studies of the incidence of mastitis from traditionally breastfeeding societies in South Asia. This study investigated the incidence, determinants, and management of mastitis in the first month postpartum, as well as its association with breastfeeding outcomes at 4 and 6 months postpartum, in western Nepal. Subjects and Methods: Subjects were a subsample of 338 mothers participating in a larger prospective cohort study conducted in 2014 in western Nepal. Mothers were interviewed during the first month postpartum and again at 4 and 6 months to obtain information on breastfeeding practices. The association of mastitis and determinant variables was investigated using multivariable logistic regression, and the association with breastfeeding duration was examined using Kaplan–Meier estimation. Results: The incidence of mastitis was 8.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.1%, 10.8%) in the first month postpartum. Prelacteal feeding (adjusted odds ratio = 2.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 7.40) and cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.09, 11.42) were associated with a higher likelihood of mastitis. Kaplan–Meier estimation showed no significant difference in the duration of exclusive breastfeeding among the mothers who experienced an episode of mastitis and those who did not. Conclusions: Roughly one in 10 (8.0%) women experienced mastitis in the first month postpartum, and there appeared to be little effect of mastitis on breastfeeding outcomes. Traditional breastfeeding practices should be encouraged, and the management of mastitis should be included as a part of lactation promotion. PMID:26488802

Prolonged Operative Duration Increases Risk of Surgical Site Infections: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian Po-Han; Soleas, Ireena M.; Ferko, Nicole C.; Cameron, Chris G.; Hinoul, Piet

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: The incidence of surgical site infection (SSI) across surgical procedures, specialties, and conditions is reported to vary from 0.1% to 50%. Operative duration is often cited as an independent and potentially modifiable risk factor for SSI. The objective of this systematic review was to provide an in-depth understanding of the relation between operating time and SSI. Patients and Methods: This review included 81 prospective and retrospective studies. Along with study design, likelihood of SSI, mean operative times, time thresholds, effect measures, confidence intervals, and p values were extracted. Three meta-analyses were conducted, whereby odds ratios were pooled by hourly operative time thresholds, increments of increasing operative time, and surgical specialty. Results: Pooled analyses demonstrated that the association between extended operative time and SSI typically remained statistically significant, with close to twice the likelihood of SSI observed across various time thresholds. The likelihood of SSI increased with increasing time increments; for example, a 13%, 17%, and 37% increased likelihood for every 15 min, 30 min, and 60 min of surgery, respectively. On average, across various procedures, the mean operative time was approximately 30 min longer in patients with SSIs compared with those patients without. Conclusions: Prolonged operative time can increase the risk of SSI. Given the importance of SSIs on patient outcomes and health care economics, hospitals should focus efforts to reduce operative time. PMID:28832271

Communicating uncertainty in circulation aspects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Ted

2017-04-01

The usual way of representing uncertainty in climate change is to define a likelihood range of possible futures, conditioned on a particular pathway of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCPs). Typically these likelihood ranges are derived from multi-model ensembles. However, there is no obvious basis for treating such ensembles as probability distributions. Moreover, for aspects of climate related to atmospheric circulation, such an approach generally leads to large uncertainty and low confidence in projections. Yet this does not mean that the associated climate risks are small. We therefore need to develop suitable ways of communicating climate risk whilst acknowledging the uncertainties. This talk will outline an approach based on conditioning the purely thermodynamic aspects of climate change, concerning which there is comparatively high confidence, on circulation-related aspects, and treating the latter through non-probabilistic storylines.

Permutation-based inference for the AUC: A unified approach for continuous and discontinuous data.

PubMed

Pauly, Markus; Asendorf, Thomas; Konietschke, Frank

2016-11-01

We investigate rank-based studentized permutation methods for the nonparametric Behrens-Fisher problem, that is, inference methods for the area under the ROC curve. We hereby prove that the studentized permutation distribution of the Brunner-Munzel rank statistic is asymptotically standard normal, even under the alternative. Thus, incidentally providing the hitherto missing theoretical foundation for the Neubert and Brunner studentized permutation test. In particular, we do not only show its consistency, but also that confidence intervals for the underlying treatment effects can be computed by inverting this permutation test. In addition, we derive permutation-based range-preserving confidence intervals. Extensive simulation studies show that the permutation-based confidence intervals appear to maintain the preassigned coverage probability quite accurately (even for rather small sample sizes). For a convenient application of the proposed methods, a freely available software package for the statistical software R has been developed. A real data example illustrates the application. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Age-dependent biochemical quantities: an approach for calculating reference intervals.

PubMed

Bjerner, J

2007-01-01

A parametric method is often preferred when calculating reference intervals for biochemical quantities, as non-parametric methods are less efficient and require more observations/study subjects. Parametric methods are complicated, however, because of three commonly encountered features. First, biochemical quantities seldom display a Gaussian distribution, and there must either be a transformation procedure to obtain such a distribution or a more complex distribution has to be used. Second, biochemical quantities are often dependent on a continuous covariate, exemplified by rising serum concentrations of MUC1 (episialin, CA15.3) with increasing age. Third, outliers often exert substantial influence on parametric estimations and therefore need to be excluded before calculations are made. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) currently recommends that confidence intervals be calculated for the reference centiles obtained. However, common statistical packages allowing for the adjustment of a continuous covariate do not make this calculation. In the method described in the current study, Tukey's fence is used to eliminate outliers and two-stage transformations (modulus-exponential-normal) in order to render Gaussian distributions. Fractional polynomials are employed to model functions for mean and standard deviations dependent on a covariate, and the model is selected by maximum likelihood. Confidence intervals are calculated for the fitted centiles by combining parameter estimation and sampling uncertainties. Finally, the elimination of outliers was made dependent on covariates by reiteration. Though a good knowledge of statistical theory is needed when performing the analysis, the current method is rewarding because the results are of practical use in patient care.

Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant

PubMed Central

Ward, Darren F.; Anderson, Dean P.; Barron, Mandy C.

2016-01-01

Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands. PMID:27721491

Predicting the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses based on the Simple Rules from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis group.

PubMed

Timmerman, Dirk; Van Calster, Ben; Testa, Antonia; Savelli, Luca; Fischerova, Daniela; Froyman, Wouter; Wynants, Laure; Van Holsbeke, Caroline; Epstein, Elisabeth; Franchi, Dorella; Kaijser, Jeroen; Czekierdowski, Artur; Guerriero, Stefano; Fruscio, Robert; Leone, Francesco P G; Rossi, Alberto; Landolfo, Chiara; Vergote, Ignace; Bourne, Tom; Valentin, Lil

2016-04-01

Accurate methods to preoperatively characterize adnexal tumors are pivotal for optimal patient management. A recent metaanalysis concluded that the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis algorithms such as the Simple Rules are the best approaches to preoperatively classify adnexal masses as benign or malignant. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses using the ultrasound features in the Simple Rules. This was an international cross-sectional cohort study involving 22 oncology centers, referral centers for ultrasonography, and general hospitals. We included consecutive patients with an adnexal tumor who underwent a standardized transvaginal ultrasound examination and were selected for surgery. Data on 5020 patients were recorded in 3 phases from 2002 through 2012. The 5 Simple Rules features indicative of a benign tumor (B-features) and the 5 features indicative of malignancy (M-features) are based on the presence of ascites, tumor morphology, and degree of vascularity at ultrasonography. Gold standard was the histopathologic diagnosis of the adnexal mass (pathologist blinded to ultrasound findings). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of malignancy based on the 10 ultrasound features and type of center. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and calibration curves. Data on 4848 patients were analyzed. The malignancy rate was 43% (1402/3263) in oncology centers and 17% (263/1585) in other centers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve on validation data was very similar in oncology centers (0.917; 95% confidence interval, 0.901-0.931) and other centers (0.916; 95% confidence interval, 0.873-0.945). Risk estimates showed good calibration. In all, 23% of patients in the validation data set had a very low estimated risk (<1%) and 48% had a high estimated risk (≥30%). For the 1% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 99.7%, specificity 33.7%, LR+ 1.5, LR- 0.010, PPV 44.8%, and NPV 98.9%. For the 30% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 89.0%, specificity 84.7%, LR+ 5.8, LR- 0.13, PPV 75.4%, and NPV 93.9%. Quantification of the risk of malignancy based on the Simple Rules has good diagnostic performance both in oncology centers and other centers. A simple classification based on these risk estimates may form the basis of a clinical management system. Patients with a high risk may benefit from surgery by a gynecological oncologist, while patients with a lower risk may be managed locally. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Minimizing pre- and post-defibrillation pauses increases the likelihood of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC).

PubMed

Sell, Rebecca E; Sarno, Renee; Lawrence, Brenna; Castillo, Edward M; Fisher, Roger; Brainard, Criss; Dunford, James V; Davis, Daniel P

2010-07-01

The three-phase model of ventricular fibrillation (VF) arrest suggests a period of compressions to "prime" the heart prior to defibrillation attempts. In addition, post-shock compressions may increase the likelihood of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). The optimal intervals for shock delivery following cessation of compressions (pre-shock interval) and resumption of compressions following a shock (post-shock interval) remain unclear. To define optimal pre- and post-defibrillation compression pauses for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OOHCA). All patients suffering OOHCA from VF were identified over a 1-month period. Defibrillator data were abstracted and analyzed using the combination of ECG, impedance, and audio recording. Receiver-operator curve (ROC) analysis was used to define the optimal pre- and post-shock compression intervals. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to quantify the relationship between these intervals and ROSC. Covariates included cumulative number of defibrillation attempts, intubation status, and administration of epinephrine in the immediate pre-shock compression cycle. Cluster adjustment was performed due to the possibility of multiple defibrillation attempts for each patient. A total of 36 patients with 96 defibrillation attempts were included. The ROC analysis identified an optimal pre-shock interval of <3s and an optimal post-shock interval of <6s. Increased likelihood of ROSC was observed with a pre-shock interval <3s (adjusted OR 6.7, 95% CI 2.0-22.3, p=0.002) and a post-shock interval of <6s (adjusted OR 10.7, 95% CI 2.8-41.4, p=0.001). Likelihood of ROSC was substantially increased with the optimization of both pre- and post-shock intervals (adjusted OR 13.1, 95% CI 3.4-49.9, p<0.001). Decreasing pre- and post-shock compression intervals increases the likelihood of ROSC in OOHCA from VF.

Impact of age-related macular degeneration in patients with glaucoma: understanding the patients' perspective.

PubMed

Skalicky, Simon E; Fenwick, Eva; Martin, Keith R; Crowston, Jonathan; Goldberg, Ivan; McCluskey, Peter

2016-07-01

The aim of the study is to measure the impact of age-related macular degeneration on vision-related activity limitation and preference-based status for glaucoma patients. This was a cross-sectional study. Two-hundred glaucoma patients of whom 73 had age-related macular degeneration were included in the research. Sociodemographic information, visual field parameters and visual acuity were collected. Age-related macular degeneration was scored using the Age-Related Eye Disease Study system. The Rasch-analysed Glaucoma Activity Limitation-9 and the Visual Function Questionnaire Utility Index measured vision-related activity limitation and preference-based status, respectively. Regression models determined factors predictive of vision-related activity limitation and preference-based status. Differential item functioning compared Glaucoma Activity Limitation-9 item difficulty for those with and without age-related macular degeneration. Mean age was 73.7 (±10.1) years. Lower better eye mean deviation (β: 1.42, 95% confidence interval: 1.24-1.63, P < 0.001) and age-related macular degeneration (β: 1.26 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.44, P = 0.001) were independently associated with worse vision-related activity limitation. Worse eye visual acuity (β: 0.978, 95% confidence interval: 0.961-0.996, P = 0.018), high risk age-related macular degeneration (β: 0.981, 95% confidence interval: 0.965-0.998, P = 0.028) and severe glaucoma (β: 0.982, 95% confidence interval: 0.966-0.998, P = 0.032) were independently associated with worse preference-based status. Glaucoma patients with age-related macular degeneration found using stairs, walking on uneven ground and judging distances of foot to step/curb significantly more difficult than those without age-related macular degeneration. Vision-related activity limitation and preference-based status are negatively impacted by severe glaucoma and age-related macular degeneration. Patients with both conditions perceive increased difficulty walking safely compared with patients with glaucoma alone. © 2015 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

A model-based correction for outcome reporting bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Copas, John; Dwan, Kerry; Kirkham, Jamie; Williamson, Paula

2014-04-01

It is often suspected (or known) that outcomes published in medical trials are selectively reported. A systematic review for a particular outcome of interest can only include studies where that outcome was reported and so may omit, for example, a study that has considered several outcome measures but only reports those giving significant results. Using the methodology of the Outcome Reporting Bias (ORB) in Trials study of (Kirkham and others, 2010. The impact of outcome reporting bias in randomised controlled trials on a cohort of systematic reviews. British Medical Journal 340, c365), we suggest a likelihood-based model for estimating the effect of ORB on confidence intervals and p-values in meta-analysis. Correcting for bias has the effect of moving estimated treatment effects toward the null and hence more cautious assessments of significance. The bias can be very substantial, sometimes sufficient to completely overturn previous claims of significance. We re-analyze two contrasting examples, and derive a simple fixed effects approximation that can be used to give an initial estimate of the effect of ORB in practice.

An electronic thesaurus of Evidence Based Laboratory Medicine hematological and biochemical diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Dorizzi, R M; Maconi, M; Giavarina, D; Loza, G; Aman, M; Moreira, J; Bisoffi, Z; Gennuso, C

2009-10-01

The adoption of Evidence Based Laboratory Medicine (EBLM) has been hampered until today by the lack of effective tools. The SIMeL EBLM e-Thesaurus (on-line Repertoire of the diagnostic effectiveness of the laboratory, radiology and cardiology test) provides a useful support to clinical laboratory professionals and to clinicians for the interpretation of the diagnostic tests. The e-Thesaurus is an application developed using Microsoft Active Server Pages technology and carried out with Web Server Microsoft Internet Information Server and is available at the SIMeL website using a browser running JavaScript scripts (Internet Explorer is recommended). It contains a database (in Italian, English and Spanish) of the sensitivity and specificity (including the 95% confidence interval), the positive and negative likelihood ratios, the Diagnostic Odds Ratio and the Number Needed to Diagnose of more than 2000 diagnostic (most laboratory but also cardiology and radiology) tests. The e-Thesaurus improves the previous SIMeL paper and CD Thesaurus; its main features are a three languages search and a continuous and an easy updating capability.

Risk factors for pneumonic and ulceroglandular tularaemia in Finland: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Rossow, H; Ollgren, J; Klemets, P; Pietarinen, I; Saikku, J; Pekkanen, E; Nikkari, S; Syrjälä, H; Kuusi, M; Nuorti, J P

2014-10-01

Few population-based data are available on factors associated with pneumonic and ulceroglandular type B tularaemia. We conducted a case-control study during a large epidemic in 2000. Laboratory-confirmed case patients were identified through active surveillance and matched control subjects (age, sex, residency) from the national population information system. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. A conditional logistic regression model addressing missing data with Bayesian full-likelihood modelling included 227 case patients and 415 control subjects; reported mosquito bites [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4·4-22, population-attributable risk (PAR) 82%] and farming activities (aOR 4·3, 95% CI 2·5-7·2, PAR 32%) were independently associated with ulceroglandular tularaemia, whereas exposure to hay dust (aOR 6·6, 95% CI 1·9-25·4, PAR 48%) was associated with pneumonic tularaemia. Although the bulk of tularaemia type B disease burden is attributable to mosquito bites, risk factors for ulceroglandular and pneumonic forms of tularaemia are different, enabling targeting of prevention efforts accordingly.

A simple method for assessing occupational exposure via the one-way random effects model.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Mathew, Thomas; Peng, Jie

2016-11-01

A one-way random effects model is postulated for the log-transformed shift-long personal exposure measurements, where the random effect in the model represents an effect due to the worker. Simple closed-form confidence intervals are proposed for the relevant parameters of interest using the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER). The performance of the confidence bounds is evaluated and compared with those based on the generalized confidence interval approach. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed MOVER confidence bounds are better than the generalized confidence bounds for the overall mean exposure and an upper percentile of the exposure distribution. The proposed methods are illustrated using a few examples involving industrial hygiene data.

Uterine adenomyosis and in vitro fertilization outcome: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Vercellini, Paolo; Consonni, Dario; Dridi, Dhouha; Bracco, Benedetta; Frattaruolo, Maria Pina; Somigliana, Edgardo

2014-05-01

Is adenomyosis associated with IVF/ICSI outcome in terms of clinical pregnancy rate? In a meta-analysis of published data, women with adenomyosis had a 28% reduction in the likelihood of clinical pregnancy at IVF/ICSI compared with women without adenomyosis. Estimates of the effect of adenomyosis on IVF/ICSI outcome are inconsistent. A systematic literature review and meta-analysis were conducted. A Medline search was performed to identify all the comparative studies published from January 1998 to June 2013 in the English language literature on IVF/ICSI outcome in women with and without adenomyosis. Two authors independently performed the literature screening, scrutinized articles of potential interest, selected relevant studies and extracted data. Studies were categorized based on research design. Of the 17 articles assessed in detail, 9 were finally selected based on diagnosis of adenomyosis at magnetic resonance imaging or transvaginal ultrasonography. The quality of studies was evaluated by means of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A total of 1865 women were enrolled in the 9 selected studies, 665 of whom in 4 prospective observational studies, and 1200 in 5 retrospective studies. The dichotomous data for clinical pregnancy and secondary outcomes were expressed as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and were combined in a meta-analysis using the random-effects model. The heterogeneity Cochrane's Q and the I(2) statistics were calculated. Egger's approach to testing the significance of funnel plot asymmetry was also used. The clinical pregnancy rate achieved after IVF/ICSI was 123/304 (40.5%) women with adenomyosis versus 628/1262 (49.8%) in those without adenomyosis. The RR of clinical pregnancy ranged from 0.37 (95% CI, 0.15-0.92) to 1.20 (95% CI, 0.58-2.45), with a significant heterogeneity among studies (I(2) = 56.8%, P = 0.023). Pooling of the results yielded a common RR of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.55-0.95). A funnel plot showed no indication of asymmetry among studies (Egger's test, P = 0.696). In a meta-regression model, no association was observed between prevalence of endometriosis and the likelihood of clinical pregnancy. Three studies reported the pregnancy rate per cycle. The common RR was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.51-0.98; I(2) = 78.1%, P = 0.010). The RR observed in a study with donated oocytes was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.75-1.08). The number of miscarriages per clinical pregnancy was reported in seven studies. A miscarriage was observed in 77/241 women with adenomyosis (31.9%) and in 97/687 in those without adenomyosis (14.1%). The RR of miscarriage ranged from 0.57 (95% CI, 0.15-2.17) to 18.00 (95% CI, 4.08-79.47) (I(2) = 67.7%, P = 0.005). Pooling of the results yielded a common RR of 2.12 (95% CI, 1.20-3.75). Qualitative and quantitative heterogeneity among studies was high. At sensitivity analysis, I(2) statistic regarding the main outcome was reduced under the 50% threshold removing one trial, but the resulting confidence interval crossed unity. Also the confidence interval of the common RR of the four studies reporting only one IVF/ICSI cycle included unity. Only part of the studies could be included in the assessment of secondary outcomes. Adenomyosis appears to impact negatively on IVF/ICSI outcome owing to reduced likelihood of clinical pregnancy and implantation, and increased risk of early pregnancy loss. Screening for adenomyosis before embarking on medically assisted reproductive procedures should be encouraged. The potentially protective role of long down-regulation protocols needs further evaluation. In future studies on the association between adenomyosis and IVF/ICSI outcome, a matched case-control design should be adopted, live birth should be the default primary outcome and only the results regarding the first cycle should be considered. None.

Obstetrician call schedule and obstetric outcomes among women eligible for a trial of labor after cesarean.

PubMed

Yee, Lynn M; Liu, Lilly Y; Grobman, William A

2017-01-01

Reducing cesarean deliveries is a major public health goal. The low rate of vaginal birth after cesarean has been attributed largely to a decrease in the likelihood of choosing a trial of labor after cesarean, despite evidence suggesting a majority of women with 1 prior low transverse cesarean are trial of labor after cesarean candidates. Although a number of reasons for this decrease have been explored, it remains unclear how systems issues such as physician call schedules influence delivery approach and mode in this context. The objective of the study was to investigate the relationship between obstetricians' call schedule and obstetric outcomes among women eligible for a trial of labor after cesarean. This is a retrospective cohort study of the likelihood of attempting a trial of labor after cesarean and achieving vaginal birth after cesarean among women with 1 prior low transverse cesarean delivery and a term, cephalic singleton gestation based on the delivering provider's call schedule. Attending obstetrician call schedules were classified as traditional or night float call. Night float call was defined as a schedule in which the provider had clinical responsibilities only for a day or night shift, without other clinical responsibilities before or after the period of responsibility for laboring patients. Call schedules are determined by individual provider groups. Bivariable analyses and random-effects logistic regression were used to examine the relationship between obstetricians' call schedule and the frequency of trial of labor after cesarean. Secondary outcomes including frequency of vaginal birth after cesarean and maternal and neonatal outcomes also were assessed. Of 1502 eligible patients, 556 (37%) were delivered by physicians in a night float call system. A total of 22.6% underwent a trial of labor after cesarean and 12.8% achieved vaginal birth after cesarean; the vaginal birth after cesarean rate for women attempting a trial of labor after cesarean was 56.5%. Women were more likely to undergo a trial of labor after cesarean (33.1% vs 16.5%, P < .001) and achieve vaginal birth after cesarean (18.7% vs 9.3%, P < .001) when cared for by physicians with a night float call schedule. Regression analyses demonstrated physicians with a night float call schedule remained significantly more likely to have patients undergo trial of labor after cesarean (adjusted odds ratio, 2.64, 95% confidence interval, 1.65-4.25) and experience vaginal birth after cesarean (adjusted odds ratio, 2.17, 95% confidence interval, 1.36-3.45) after adjusting for potential confounders. However, the likelihood of achieving vaginal birth after cesarean if a trial of labor after cesarean was attempted was not different based on provider call type (adjusted odds ratio, 0.96, 95% confidence interval, 0.57-1.62). Although women delivered by providers with a night float schedule were more likely to experience uterine rupture (1.8% vs 0.6%, P = .03), chorioamnionitis (4.3% vs 1.7%, P = .002), postpartum hemorrhage (7.6% vs 4.8%, P = .03), and neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (6.8% vs 3.9%, P = .01), these associations did not persist when the population was limited to women attempting trial of labor after cesarean. Although physicians working on a night float call system were significantly more likely to have patients with a prior cesarean undergo trial of labor after cesarean and achieve vaginal birth after cesarean, their patients also were more likely to experience maternal and neonatal morbidity. However, these differences did not persist when limiting analyses to women attempting a trial of labor after cesarean. Using a night float call schedule may be an effective measure to promote a trial of labor after cesarean and vaginal birth after cesarean. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

House-level risk factors for Triatoma dimidiata infestation in Colombia.

PubMed

Parra-Henao, Gabriel; Cardona, Ángela Segura; Quirós-Gómez, Oscar; Angulo, Víctor; Alexander, Neal

2015-01-01

In Colombia, the main vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, are Rhodnius prolixus and Triatoma dimidiata. T. dimidiata is present in the east region of Colombia as domestic, peridomestic, and sylvatic populations, resulting in difficulties for its control. A cost-effective way to prioritize houses for treatment is to stratify houses based on risk factors. In this study, risk factors were evaluated for potential associations with domicile infestation of T. dimidiata. There was an increased likelihood of domestic infestation associated with the presence of mixed roofs (odds ratio [OR] = 36.14, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 12.21-106.97), cats (OR = 3.94, 95% CI = 1.36-11.38), rock piles (OR = 5.28, 95% CI = 1.64-16.98), and bushes with height above 10 m (OR = 11.21, 95% CI = 2.08-60.45). These factors could be used to target surveillance and control of T. dimidiata to houses with an increased risk of being infested. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

House-Level Risk Factors for Triatoma dimidiata Infestation in Colombia

PubMed Central

Parra-Henao, Gabriel; Cardona, Ángela Segura; Quirós-Gómez, Oscar; Angulo, Víctor; Alexander, Neal

2015-01-01

In Colombia, the main vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, are Rhodnius prolixus and Triatoma dimidiata. T. dimidiata is present in the east region of Colombia as domestic, peridomestic, and sylvatic populations, resulting in difficulties for its control. A cost-effective way to prioritize houses for treatment is to stratify houses based on risk factors. In this study, risk factors were evaluated for potential associations with domicile infestation of T. dimidiata. There was an increased likelihood of domestic infestation associated with the presence of mixed roofs (odds ratio [OR] = 36.14, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 12.21–106.97), cats (OR = 3.94, 95% CI = 1.36–11.38), rock piles (OR = 5.28, 95% CI = 1.64–16.98), and bushes with height above 10 m (OR = 11.21, 95% CI = 2.08–60.45). These factors could be used to target surveillance and control of T. dimidiata to houses with an increased risk of being infested. PMID:25349372

A review and comparison of Bayesian and likelihood-based inferences in beta regression and zero-or-one-inflated beta regression.

PubMed

Liu, Fang; Eugenio, Evercita C

2018-04-01

Beta regression is an increasingly popular statistical technique in medical research for modeling of outcomes that assume values in (0, 1), such as proportions and patient reported outcomes. When outcomes take values in the intervals [0,1), (0,1], or [0,1], zero-or-one-inflated beta (zoib) regression can be used. We provide a thorough review on beta regression and zoib regression in the modeling, inferential, and computational aspects via the likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches. We demonstrate the statistical and practical importance of correctly modeling the inflation at zero/one rather than ad hoc replacing them with values close to zero/one via simulation studies; the latter approach can lead to biased estimates and invalid inferences. We show via simulation studies that the likelihood-based approach is computationally faster in general than MCMC algorithms used in the Bayesian inferences, but runs the risk of non-convergence, large biases, and sensitivity to starting values in the optimization algorithm especially with clustered/correlated data, data with sparse inflation at zero and one, and data that warrant regularization of the likelihood. The disadvantages of the regular likelihood-based approach make the Bayesian approach an attractive alternative in these cases. Software packages and tools for fitting beta and zoib regressions in both the likelihood-based and Bayesian frameworks are also reviewed.

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Antenatal depression and male gender preference in Asian women in the UK.

PubMed

Dhillon, Navpreet; Macarthur, Christine

2010-06-01

to identify the prevalence of antenatal depression among Asian women living in the UK in one antenatal clinic, and to investigate the possible association with a desire for a male child and other risk factors. cross-sectional questionnaire-based study. general antenatal clinic in a hospital in Birmingham. 300 Asian women, irrespective of place of birth. consecutive Asian women attending routine antenatal appointments during the study period self-completed a questionnaire. The first part investigated socio-demographic, cultural and other possible risk factors, including gender preference. The second part comprised the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). EPDS score greater than or equal to 12 indicating probable depression. the prevalence of depression was 30.7% (92/300, 95% confidence interval 25.4-35.9%). Maternal male gender preference was not common and was not associated with antenatal depression. Family male gender preference, unplanned pregnancy, a history of depression and feeling anxious in pregnancy were independently associated with an increased likelihood of depression, whilst support from family and friends, being satisfied with pregnancy and being multiparous were associated with a reduced likelihood of depression. rates of antenatal depression were very high in Asian women with some associated risk factors. However, male gender preference was not associated with antenatal depression. given the high prevalence, screening Asian women for depression may be indicated to allow treatment. Copyright 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for the Probability of Superiority Effect Size Measure and the Area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruscio, John; Mullen, Tara

2012-01-01

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

Determinants of attaining and maintaining a low cardiovascular risk profile--the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

Hulsegge, Gerben; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Smit, Henriëtte A; Verschuren, W M Monique

2016-02-01

While maintenance of a low cardiovascular risk profile is essential for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, few people maintain a low CVD risk profile throughout their life. We studied the association of demographic, lifestyle, psychological factors and family history of CVD with attainment and maintenance of a low risk profile over three subsequent 5-year periods. Measurements of 6390 adults aged 26-65 years at baseline were completed from 1993 to 97 and subsequently at 5-year intervals until 2013. At each wave, participants were categorized into low risk profile (ideal levels of blood pressure, cholesterol and body mass index, non-smoking and no diabetes) and medium/high risk profile (all others). Multivariable-adjusted modified Poisson regression analyses were used to examine determinants of attainment and maintenance of low risk; risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained. Generalized estimating equations were used to combine multiple 5-year comparisons. Younger age, female gender and high educational level were associated with higher likelihood of both maintaining and attaining low risk profile (P < 0.05). In addition, likelihood of attaining low risk was 9% higher with each 1-unit increment in Mediterranean diet score (RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.16), twice as high with any physical activity versus none (RR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.16-4.04) and 35% higher with moderate alcohol consumption versus heavy consumption (RR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.06-1.73). Healthy lifestyle factors such as adherence to a Mediterranean diet, physical activity and moderate as opposed to heavy alcohol consumption were associated with a higher likelihood of attaining a low risk profile. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of tics in schoolchildren in central Spain: a population-based study.

PubMed

Cubo, Esther; Gabriel y Galán, José María Trejo; Villaverde, Vanesa Ausín; Velasco, Sara Sáez; Benito, Vanesa Delgado; Macarrón, Jesús Vicente; Guevara, José Cordero; Louis, Elan D; Benito-León, Julián

2011-08-01

Tic disorders constitute a neurodevelopmental disorder of childhood. This study sought to determine the prevalence of tic disorders in a school-based sample. A randomized sample of 1158 schoolchildren, based on clusters (classrooms) in the province of Burgos (Spain), was identified on a stratified sampling frame combining types of educational center and setting (mainstream schools and special education), using a two-phase approach (screening and diagnosis ascertainment by a neurologist). Tics with/without impairment criterion were diagnosed according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria. In mainstream schools, tics were observed in 125/741 students (16.86%; 95% confidence interval, 14.10-19.63), and were more frequent in boys (87/448, 19.42%; 95% confidence interval, 15.64-23.19) compared with girls (38/293, 12.96%; 95% confidence interval, 8.95-16.98; P = 0.03). In special education centers, tics disorders were observed in 11/54 of children (20.37%; 95% confidence interval, 8.70-32.03). Overall, tics with impairment criteria were less frequent than tics without impairment criteria (4.65% vs 11.85%, P < 0.0001). The most frequent diagnoses involved chronic motor tics (6.07%) and Tourette syndrome (5.26%). Tic disorders are common in childhood, and the use or nonuse of impairment criteria exerts a significant impact on tic prevalence estimates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Prevalence of dry eye syndrome in an adult population.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Mehravaran, Shiva; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-04-01

To determine the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the general 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud, Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Through cluster sampling, 6311 people were selected and 5190 participated. Assessment of dry eye was done in a random subsample of 1008 people. Subjective assessment for dry eye syndrome was performed using Ocular Surface Disease Index questionnaire. In addition, the following objective tests of dry eye syndrome were employed: Schirmer test, tear break-up time, and fluorescein and Rose Bengal staining using the Oxford grading scheme. Those with an Ocular Surface Disease Index score ≥23 were considered symptomatic, and dry eye syndrome was defined as having symptoms and at least one positive objective sign. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 6.9-10.6). Assessment of signs showed an abnormal Schirmer score in 17.8% (95% confidence interval 15.5-20.0), tear break-up time in 34.2% (95% confidence interval 29.5-38.8), corneal fluorescein staining (≥1) in 11.3% (95% confidence interval 8.5-14.1) and Rose Bengal staining (≥3 for cornea and/or conjunctiva) in 4.9% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.5). According to the Ocular Surface Disease Index scores, 18.3% (95% confidence interval 15.9-20.6) had dry eye syndrome symptoms. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was significantly higher in women (P = 0.010) and not significantly associated with age (P = 0.291). The objective dry eye syndrome signs significantly increased with age. Based on the findings, the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the studied population is in the mid-range. The prevalence is higher in women. Also, objective tests tend to turn abnormal at higher age. Pterygium is associated with dry eye syndrome and increased its symptoms. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Antecedents and neuroimaging patterns in cerebral palsy with epilepsy and cognitive impairment: a population-based study in children born at term.

PubMed

Ahlin, Kristina; Jacobsson, Bo; Nilsson, Staffan; Himmelmann, Kate

2017-07-01

Antecedents of accompanying impairments in cerebral palsy and their relation to neuroimaging patterns need to be explored. A population-based study of 309 children with cerebral palsy born at term between 1983 and 1994. Prepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum variables previously studied as antecedents of cerebral palsy type and motor severity were analyzed in children with cerebral palsy and cognitive impairment and/or epilepsy, and in children with cerebral palsy without these accompanying impairments. Neuroimaging patterns and their relation to identified antecedents were analyzed. Data were retrieved from the cerebral palsy register of western Sweden, and from obstetric and neonatal records. Children with cerebral palsy and accompanying impairments more often had low birthweight (kg) (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8), brain maldevelopment known at birth (p = 0.007, odds ratio ∞) and neonatal infection (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.04-28.4). Moreover, neuroimaging patterns of maldevelopment (odds ratio 7.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-17.2), cortical/subcortical lesions (odds ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3-12.2) and basal ganglia lesions (odds ratio 7.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-41.3) were more common, wheras white matter injury was found significantly less often (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5). In most children with maldevelopment, the intrapartum and postpartum periods were uneventful (p < 0.05). Cerebral maldevelopment was associated with prepartum antecedents, whereas subcortical/cortical and basal ganglia lesions were associated with intrapartum and postpartum antecedents. No additional factor other than those related to motor impairment was associated with epilepsy and cognitive impairment in cerebral palsy. Timing of antecedents deemed important for the development of cerebral palsy with accompanying impairments were supported by neuroimaging patterns. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Breast cancer biology varies by method of detection and may contribute to overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Hayse, Brandon; Hooley, Regina J; Killelea, Brigid K; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B; Lannin, Donald R

2016-08-01

Recently, it has been suggested that screening mammography may result in some degree of overdiagnosis (ie, detection of breast cancers that would never become clinically important within the lifespan of the patient). The extent and biology of these overdiagnosed cancers, however, is not well understood, and the effect of newer screening modalities on overdiagnosis is unknown. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of breast cancers diagnosed at the Yale Breast Center from 2004-2014. The mode of initial presentation was categorized into 5 groups: screening mammogram, screening magnetic resonance imaging, screening ultrasonography, self-detected masses, and physician-detected masses. Compared with cancers presenting with masses, cancers detected by image-based screening were more likely to present with ductal carcinoma-in-situ or T1 cancers (P < .001). In addition to a simple stage shift, however, cancers detected by image-based screening were also more likely to be luminal and low-grade cancers; symptomatic cancers were more likely high-grade and triple-negative (P < .001, respectively). On a multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, race, and tumor size, cancers detected by mammogram, US, and magnetic resonance imaging had greater odds of being luminal (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3; odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.7; and odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.6, respectively), and low-grade (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-8.9; and odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.6-8.1, respectively) compared with cancers presenting with self-detected masses. Screening detects cancers with more indolent biology, potentially contributing to the observed rate of overdiagnosis. With magnetic resonance imaging and US being used more commonly for screening, the rate of overdiagnosis may increase further. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Molecular Mechanisms of Soft Tissue Regeneration and Bone Formation in Mice: Implication in Fracture Repair and Wound Healing in Humans

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-01

designed in this study: Mg4718-F: 5’-GCA TTT TGA TCC CTT ATA ATA CA-3’ Mg4718-R: 5’- GTG GAA GAC CCT TGA ATG G-3’ Mg4723-F: 5’-GCA TAG CCA ACA AAA...GAA ATC TAA TG-3’ Mg4723-R: 5’-GCA GTG TAG CTC AGT GGT AGA TCA C-3’ After each cross, the progenies were genotyped as described above. We have also...mutant F2 mice. PPD is a likelihood statistic that gives rise to the 95% confidence intervals, which is indicated by gray horizontal bars. cM

Assessing reproductive choices of women and the likelihood of oocyte cryopreservation in the era of elective oocyte freezing.

PubMed

Milman, Lauren W; Senapati, Suneeta; Sammel, Mary D; Cameron, Katherine D; Gracia, Clarisa

2017-05-01

To assess reproductive choices of reproductive-age women in the United States and factors that influence consideration of elective egg freezing (EF). Cross-sectional internet-based survey. Not applicable. One thousand women aged 21-45 years. An anonymous 63-item self-administered questionnaire was distributed to a representative cross-section of women aged 21-45 years, stratified by age <35 years. One-half of the sample had at least one child, and the other one-half did not. All of the participants were interested in having children. Ordinal logistic regression was performed to characterize the association of population characteristics and reproductive knowledge with likelihood to consider EF. Willingness to pay was assessed with the use of a linear prediction model that calculated dollar amounts at varying success rates. Overall, 87.2% of the sample reported awareness of EF for fertility preservation and 25% would consider this option, yet only 29.8% knew what the EF process entails. Once informed of the process, 30% of women changed their level of consideration. In a multivariable model, Asian race, single status, and infertility increased the likelihood of considering EF. Women likely to consider egg freezing would be willing to pay $3,811.55 (95% confidence interval $2,862.66-$4,760.44). If the total cost were $10,000, 91% of the cohort would accept at minimum a 50% chance of successful delivery. This study is one of the largest cohorts of reproductive-age women in the United States addressing reproductive choices and factors associated with the importance of having a biologically related child and the likelihood of considering EF to preserve fertility. This study provides important insight into the willingness to pay for this elective endeavor. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for classical hysterotomy by gestational age.

PubMed

Osmundson, Sarah S; Garabedian, Matthew J; Lyell, Deirdre J

2013-10-01

To examine the likelihood of classical hysterotomy across preterm gestational ages and to identify factors that increase its occurrence. This is a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort collected by the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Network of all women with singleton gestations who underwent a cesarean delivery with a known hysterotomy. Comparisons were made based on gestational age. Factors thought to influence hysterotomy type were studied, including maternal age, body mass index, parity, birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA) status, fetal presentation, labor preceding delivery, and emergent delivery. Approximately 36,000 women were eligible for analysis, of whom 34,454 (95.7%) underwent low transverse hysterotomy and 1,562 (4.3%) underwent classical hysterotomy. The median gestational age of women undergoing a classical hysterotomy was 32 weeks and the incidence peaked between 24 0/7 weeks and 25 6/7 weeks (53.2%), declining with each additional week of gestation thereafter (P for trend <.001). In multivariable regression, the likelihood of classical hysterotomy was increased with SGA (n=258; odds ratio [OR] 2.71; confidence interval [CI] 1.78-4.13), birth weight 1,000 g or less (n=467; OR 1.51; CI 1.03-2.24), and noncephalic presentation (n=783; OR 2.03; CI 1.52-2.72). The likelihood of classical hysterotomy was decreased between 23 0/7 and 27 6/7 weeks of gestation and after 32 weeks of gestation when labor preceded delivery, and increased between 28 0/7 and 31 6/7 weeks of gestation and after 32 weeks of gestation by multiparity and previous cesarean delivery. Emergent delivery did not predict classical hysterotomy. Fifty percent of women at 23-26 weeks of gestation who undergo cesarean delivery have a classical hysterotomy, and the risk declines steadily thereafter. This likelihood is increased by fetal factors, especially SGA and noncephalic presentation. : II.

Identifying patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of microalbuminuria: results of the DEMAND (Developing Education on Microalbuminuria for Awareness of reNal and cardiovascular risk in Diabetes) Study.

PubMed

Rossi, Maria C E; Nicolucci, Antonio; Pellegrini, Fabio; Comaschi, Marco; Ceriello, Antonio; Cucinotta, Domenico; Giorda, Carlo; Valentini, Umberto; Vespasiani, Giacomo; De Cosmo, Salvatore

2008-04-01

We evaluated to what extent the presence of risk factors and their interactions increased the likelihood of microalbuminuria (MAU) among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Fifty-five Italian diabetes outpatient clinics enrolled a sample of patients with type 2 diabetes, without urinary infections and overt diabetic nephropathy. A morning spot urine sample was collected to centrally determine the urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR). A tree-based regression technique (RECPAM) and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate interaction between correlates of MAU. Of the 1841 patients recruited, 228 (12.4%) were excluded due to the presence of urinary infections and 56 (3.5%) for the presence of macroalbuminuria. Overall, the prevalence of MAU (ACR = 30-299 mg/g) was of 19.1%. The RECPAM algorithm led to the identification of seven classes showing a marked difference in the likelihood of MAU. Non-smoker patients with HbA1c <7% and waist circumference 98 cm and HbA1c >8% showed the highest likelihood of MAU (odds ratio = 13.7; 95% confidence intervals 6.8-27.6). In the other classes identified, the risk of MAU ranged between 3 and 5. Age, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol levels and diabetes treatment represented additional, global correlates of MAU. The likelihood of MAU is strongly related to the interaction between diabetes severity, smoking habits and several components of the metabolic syndrome. In particular, abdominal obesity, elevated blood pressure levels and low HDL cholesterol levels substantially increase the risk of MAU. It is of primary importance to monitor MAU in high-risk individuals and aggressively intervene on modifiable risk factors.

Delivery by Cesarean Section and Early Childhood Respiratory Symptoms and Disorders

PubMed Central

Magnus, Maria C.; Håberg, Siri E.; Stigum, Hein; Nafstad, Per; London, Stephanie J.; Vangen, Siri; Nystad, Wenche

2011-01-01

Studies have indicated that children delivered by cesarean section are at an increased risk of developing wheezing and asthma. This could be the result of an altered immune system development due to delayed gut colonization or of increased neonatal respiratory morbidity. The authors examined the associations between delivery by cesarean section and the development of wheezing, asthma, and recurrent lower respiratory tract infections in children up to 36 months of age among 37,171 children in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. Generalized linear models were used in the multivariable analysis. Children delivered by cesarean section had an increased likelihood of current asthma at 36 months of age (relative risk = 1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.32), and the association was stronger among children of nonatopic mothers (relative risk = 1.33, 95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.58). No increased risk of wheezing or recurrent lower respiratory tract infections was seen among children delivered by cesarean section. Findings were similar among children delivered by acute and elective cesarean section. In conclusion, children delivered by cesarean section may have an increased risk of current asthma at 36 months, but residual confounding cannot be excluded. In future prospective studies, investigators should reexamine this association in different age groups. PMID:22038100

Exposure to traffic-related air pollution during pregnancy and term low birth weight: estimation of causal associations in a semiparametric model.

PubMed

Padula, Amy M; Mortimer, Kathleen; Hubbard, Alan; Lurmann, Frederick; Jerrett, Michael; Tager, Ira B

2012-11-01

Traffic-related air pollution is recognized as an important contributor to health problems. Epidemiologic analyses suggest that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollutants may be associated with adverse birth outcomes; however, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the relation is causal. The Study of Air Pollution, Genetics and Early Life Events comprises all births to women living in 4 counties in California's San Joaquin Valley during the years 2000-2006. The probability of low birth weight among full-term infants in the population was estimated using machine learning and targeted maximum likelihood estimation for each quartile of traffic exposure during pregnancy. If everyone lived near high-volume freeways (approximated as the fourth quartile of traffic density), the estimated probability of term low birth weight would be 2.27% (95% confidence interval: 2.16, 2.38) as compared with 2.02% (95% confidence interval: 1.90, 2.12) if everyone lived near smaller local roads (first quartile of traffic density). Assessment of potentially causal associations, in the absence of arbitrary model assumptions applied to the data, should result in relatively unbiased estimates. The current results support findings from previous studies that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution may adversely affect birth weight among full-term infants.

Correcting for bias in the selection and validation of informative diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Robertson, David S; Prevost, A Toby; Bowden, Jack

2015-04-15

When developing a new diagnostic test for a disease, there are often multiple candidate classifiers to choose from, and it is unclear if any will offer an improvement in performance compared with current technology. A two-stage design can be used to select a promising classifier (if one exists) in stage one for definitive validation in stage two. However, estimating the true properties of the chosen classifier is complicated by the first stage selection rules. In particular, the usual maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) that combines data from both stages will be biased high. Consequently, confidence intervals and p-values flowing from the MLE will also be incorrect. Building on the results of Pepe et al. (SIM 28:762-779), we derive the most efficient conditionally unbiased estimator and exact confidence intervals for a classifier's sensitivity in a two-stage design with arbitrary selection rules; the condition being that the trial proceeds to the validation stage. We apply our estimation strategy to data from a recent family history screening tool validation study by Walter et al. (BJGP 63:393-400) and are able to identify and successfully adjust for bias in the tool's estimated sensitivity to detect those at higher risk of breast cancer. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Alternative methods to evaluate trial level surrogacy.

PubMed

Abrahantes, Josè Cortiñas; Shkedy, Ziv; Molenberghs, Geert

2008-01-01

The evaluation and validation of surrogate endpoints have been extensively studied in the last decade. Prentice [1] and Freedman, Graubard and Schatzkin [2] laid the foundations for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized clinical trials. Later, Buyse et al. [5] proposed a meta-analytic methodology, producing different methods for different settings, which was further studied by Alonso and Molenberghs [9], in their unifying approach based on information theory. In this article, we focus our attention on the trial-level surrogacy and propose alternative procedures to evaluate such surrogacy measure, which do not pre-specify the type of association. A promising correction based on cross-validation is investigated. As well as the construction of confidence intervals for this measure. In order to avoid making assumption about the type of relationship between the treatment effects and its distribution, a collection of alternative methods, based on regression trees, bagging, random forests, and support vector machines, combined with bootstrap-based confidence interval and, should one wish, in conjunction with a cross-validation based correction, will be proposed and applied. We apply the various strategies to data from three clinical studies: in opthalmology, in advanced colorectal cancer, and in schizophrenia. The results obtained for the three case studies are compared; they indicate that using random forest or bagging models produces larger estimated values for the surrogacy measure, which are in general stabler and the confidence interval narrower than linear regression and support vector regression. For the advanced colorectal cancer studies, we even found the trial-level surrogacy is considerably different from what has been reported. In general the alternative methods are more computationally demanding, and specially the calculation of the confidence intervals, require more computational time that the delta-method counterpart. First, more flexible modeling techniques can be used, allowing for other type of association. Second, when no cross-validation-based correction is applied, overly optimistic trial-level surrogacy estimates will be found, thus cross-validation is highly recommendable. Third, the use of the delta method to calculate confidence intervals is not recommendable since it makes assumptions valid only in very large samples. It may also produce range-violating limits. We therefore recommend alternatives: bootstrap methods in general. Also, the information-theoretic approach produces comparable results with the bagging and random forest approaches, when cross-validation correction is applied. It is also important to observe that, even for the case in which the linear model might be a good option too, bagging methods perform well too, and their confidence intervals were more narrow.

Female breast symptoms in patients attended in the family medicine practice.

PubMed

González-Pérez, Brian; Salas-Flores, Ricardo; Sosa-López, María Lucero; Barrientos-Guerrero, Carlos Eduardo; Hernández-Aguilar, Claudia Magdalena; Gómez-Contreras, Diana Edith; Sánchez-Garza, Jorge Arturo

2013-01-01

there are few studies on breast symptoms (BS) in patients attended at primary care units in Mexico. The aim was to determine the frequency and types of BS overall and by age-group and establish which BS were related to diagnosis of breast cancer. data from all female patients with a breast-disease-related diagnosis, attended from 2006 to 2010, at the Family Medicine Unit 38, were collected. The frequencies of BS were determined by four age-groups (< 19, 20-49, 50-69, > 70 years) and likelihood ratios for breast cancer for each breast-related symptom patient, with a 95 % confidence interval (CI). the most frequent BS in the study population were lump/mass (71.7 %) and breast pain (67.7 %) of all breast complaints, and they were more noted in women age group of 20-49 years. Overall, 120 women had breast cancer diagnosed with a median age of 53.51 + 12.7 years. Breast lump/mass had positive likelihood ratios for breast cancer 4.53 (95 % CI = 2.51-8.17) and breast pain had increased negative LR = 1.08 (95 % CI = 1.05-1.11). breast lump/mass was the predominant presenting complaint among females with breast symptoms in our primary care unit, and it was associated with elevated positive likelihood of breast cancer.

Marital violence and women's reproductive health care in Uttar Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Sudha, S; Morrison, Sharon

2011-01-01

Although the impact of marital violence on women's reproductive health is recognized globally, there is little research on how women's experience of and justification of marital violence in developing country settings is linked to sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptom reporting, and seeking care for the symptoms. This study analyzes data on 9,639 currently married women from India's 2006-2007 National Family Health Survey-3 from the Central/Northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. The likelihood of currently married women's reporting STIs or symptoms, and the likelihood of seeking care for these, are analyzed using multivariate logistic regression techniques. Currently married women's experience of physical, sexual, and emotional marital violence in the last 12 months was significantly associated with greater likelihood of reporting a STI or symptom (odds ratio [OR], 1.364 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.171-1.588] for physical violence; OR, 1.649 [95% CI, 1.323-2.054] for sexual violence; OR, 1.273 [95% CI, 1.117-1.450] for emotional violence). Experience of physical violence (OR, 0.728; 95% CI, 0.533-0.994) and acceptance of any justification for physical violence (OR, 0.590; 95% CI, 0.458-0.760) were significantly associated with decreased chance of seeking care, controlling for other factors. This study suggests that experiencing marital violence may have a negative impact on multiple aspects of women's reproductive health, including increased self-report of STI symptoms. Moreover, marital physical violence and accepting justification for such violence are associated with decreased chance of seeking care. Thus, policies and programs to promote reproductive health should incorporate decreasing gender-based violence, and overcoming underlying societal gender inequality. Copyright © 2011 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Readability of prescription labels and medication recall in a population of tertiary referral glaucoma patients.

PubMed

O'Hare, Fleur; Jeganathan, V Swetha E; Rokahr, Catherine G; Rogers, Sophie L; Crowston, Jonathan G

2009-12-01

To evaluate readability of eye drop labels and accurate recall of prescription instructions in a glaucoma population. A hospital-based, cross-sectional study. A trained, interviewer examined patient ability to read standard and larger font medication labels. A questionnaire was administered to ascertain accurate recall of prescribed eye drops. Clinical information was obtained through independent chart review. Glaucoma severity was classified according to a glaucoma staging system. The setting for the study was the glaucoma outpatient clinic, Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital (Melbourne, Australia), a major tertiary referral centre. A total of 200 glaucoma patients (96.2% response), aged 45-90 years, on eye drops took part in the study. Non-English-speaking patients were excluded. The main outcome measure was the ability to read prescribed medication labels and accurately recall treatment regime was compared with glaucoma severity and the number of eye drops. Of the glaucoma patients, 12% were unable to read standard pharmacy labels. Only 5.5% were unable to read the larger font labels. Of the patients, 32% were not able to accurately recall the type of drops or prescribed frequency of instillation. An inability to read standard labels was associated with a threefold reduction in the likelihood of accurate medication recall (95% confidence intervals, 1.40-7.66, P < 0.05). Patients with three or more types of eye drops were five times less likely to recall their medications (95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.57, P < 0.05). Inability to read or recall prescribed eye drops was associated with glaucoma severity and the number of prescribed eye drops. These factors may impact significantly on patients' adherence to glaucoma medications.

Treatment of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ Among Patients Cared for in Large Integrated Health Plans

PubMed Central

Haque, Reina; Achacoso, Ninah S.; Fletcher, Suzanne W.; Nekhlyudov, Larissa; Collins, Laura C.; Schnitt, Stuart J.; Quesenberry, Charles P.; Habel, Laurel A.

2013-01-01

Objective To examine whether use of adjuvant therapy varies by race/ethnicity among patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) at 3 integrated health plan delivery sites based in California and Massachusetts. Study Design Cross-sectional study nested within a cohort of women diagnosed as having DCIS between 1990 and 2001. Methods We reviewed medical records of 3000 non-Hispanic white (69%), black (10%), Hispanic (9%), and Asian or Pacific Islander (12%) women diagnosed as having DCIS between 1990 and 2001 and treated with breast-conserving therapy. χ2 Test and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to examine the association between race/ethnicity and use of adjuvant treatments after controlling for patient and clinical variables, including certain pathologic factors. Results We found no significant differences in DCIS adjuvant treatment among racial/ethnic groups in bivariate or multinomial analyses after adjusting for demographic characteristics, comorbidity, and clinical factors. Minority women were as likely to undergo adjuvant radiation therapy as non-Hispanic white women. However, women 70 years or older (odds ratio, 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.31–0.51) and women who lived in areas with low geocoded median family income (odds ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.48–0.89) were less likely to receive adjuvant radiation therapy. Tumor size and comedo histologic growth pattern were associated with increased likelihood of receiving radiation therapy. Conclusion Use of adjuvant therapy by minority women in these managed care plans is similar to that by non-Hispanic white women, although use was less among older women and among women who lived in poorer neighborhoods. PMID:20469955

Validating the TeleStroke Mimic Score: A Prediction Rule for Identifying Stroke Mimics Evaluated Over Telestroke Networks.

PubMed

Ali, Syed F; Hubert, Gordian J; Switzer, Jeffrey A; Majersik, Jennifer J; Backhaus, Roland; Shepard, L Wylie; Vedala, Kishore; Schwamm, Lee H

2018-03-01

Up to 30% of acute stroke evaluations are deemed stroke mimics, and these are common in telestroke as well. We recently published a risk prediction score for use during telestroke encounters to differentiate stroke mimics from ischemic cerebrovascular disease derived and validated in the Partners TeleStroke Network. Using data from 3 distinct US and European telestroke networks, we sought to externally validate the TeleStroke Mimic (TM) score in a broader population. We evaluated the TM score in 1930 telestroke consults from the University of Utah, Georgia Regents University, and the German TeleMedical Project for Integrative Stroke Care Network. We report the area under the curve in receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis with 95% confidence interval for our previously derived TM score in which lower TM scores correspond with a higher likelihood of being a stroke mimic. Based on final diagnosis at the end of the telestroke consultation, there were 630 of 1930 (32.6%) stroke mimics in the external validation cohort. All 6 variables included in the score were significantly different between patients with ischemic cerebrovascular disease versus stroke mimics. The TM score performed well (area under curve, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.73; P <0.001), similar to our prior external validation in the Partners National Telestroke Network. The TM score's ability to predict the presence of a stroke mimic during telestroke consultation in these diverse cohorts was similar to its performance in our original cohort. Predictive decision-support tools like the TM score may help highlight key clinical differences between mimics and patients with stroke during complex, time-critical telestroke evaluations. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Prescription of Guideline-Based Medical Therapies at Discharge After Carotid Artery Stenting and Endarterectomy: An NCDR Analysis.

PubMed

Aronow, Herbert D; Kennedy, Kevin F; Wayangankar, Siddharth A; Katzen, Barry T; Schneider, Peter A; Abou-Chebl, Alex; Rosenfield, Kenneth A

2016-09-01

Carotid artery revascularization was previously found to incrementally reduce stroke risk among patients with carotid stenosis treated with medical therapy. However, the frequency with which optimal medical therapies are used at discharge after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS) is not known, and the influence of patient, operator, and hospital characteristics on the likelihood of prescription is poorly understood. In a retrospective cohort study of 23 112 patients undergoing CAS or CEA between January 2007 and June 2012 at US hospitals participating in the CARE registry (Carotid Artery Revascularization and Endarterectomy), we examined antiplatelet therapy and statin utilization at discharge. Hierarchical multivariable logistic regression was used in adjusted analyses. Antiplatelet agents and statins were prescribed at discharge in 99% and 78%, respectively, after CAS and 93% and 75%, respectively, after CEA. After adjustment, antiplatelet therapy was more often prescribed after CAS than CEA (odds ratio 2.4 [95% confidence interval 1.68-3.45]), but statin prescription was equally likely (odds ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.84-1.49]). Operator specialty (medical>radiology/surgery) and hospital community setting (suburban>urban>rural) independently predicted antiplatelet and statin agent use at discharge, whereas hospital geographic location (Northeast>Midwest/South>West) predicted use of statins but not antiplatelet therapy at discharge. US antiplatelet agent and statin discharge prescription rates were suboptimal after both CAS and CEA and varied by revascularization modality, operating physician specialty, and hospital characteristics. Improved and more uniform utilization after these procedures will be critical to the success of comprehensive stroke risk reduction efforts. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Does Maltreatment in Childhood Affect Sexual Orientation in Adulthood?

PubMed Central

Roberts, Andrea L.; Glymour, M. Maria; Koenen, Karestan C.

2012-01-01

Epidemiological studies find a positive association between physical and sexual abuse, neglect, and witnessing violence in childhood and same-sex sexuality in adulthood, but studies directly assessing the association between these diverse types of maltreatment and sexuality cannot disentangle the causal direction because the sequencing of maltreatment and emerging sexuality is difficult to ascertain. Nascent same-sex orientation may increase risk of maltreatment; alternatively, maltreatment may shape sexual orientation. Our study used instrumental variable models based on family characteristics that predict maltreatment but are not plausibly influenced by sexual orientation (e.g., having a stepparent) as natural experiments to investigate whether maltreatment might increase the likelihood of same-sex sexuality in a nationally representative sample (n = 34,653). In instrumental variable models, history of sexual abuse predicted increased prevalence of same-sex attraction by 2.0 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4, 2.5), any same-sex partners by 1.4 percentage points (95% CI = 1.0, 1.9), and same-sex identity by 0.7 percentage points (95% CI = 0.4, 0.9). Effects of sexual abuse on men’s sexual orientation were substantially larger than on women’s. Effects of non-sexual maltreatment were significant only for men and women’s sexual identity and women’s same-sex partners. While point estimates suggest much of the association between maltreatment and sexual orientation may be due to the effects of maltreatment on sexual orientation, confidence intervals were wide. Our results suggest that causal relationships driving the association between sexual orientation and childhood abuse may be bidirectional, may differ by type of abuse, and may differ by sex. Better understanding of this potentially complex causal structure is critical to developing targeted strategies to reduce sexual orientation disparities in exposure to abuse. PMID:22976519

Youth Drinking in the United States: Relationships With Alcohol Policies and Adult Drinking

PubMed Central

Xuan, Ziming; Blanchette, Jason G.; Nelson, Toben F.; Nguyen, Thien H.; Hadland, Scott E.; Oussayef, Nadia L.; Heeren, Timothy C.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the alcohol policy environment (ie, the combined effectiveness and implementation of multiple existing alcohol policies) and youth drinking in the United States has not been assessed. We hypothesized that stronger alcohol policy environments are inversely associated with youth drinking, and this relationship is partly explained by adult drinking. METHODS: Alcohol Policy Scale (APS) scores that characterized the strength of the state-level alcohol policy environments were assessed with repeated cross-sectional Youth Risk Behavior Survey data of representative samples of high school students in grades 9 to 12, from biennial years between 1999 and 2011. RESULTS: In fully adjusted models, a 10 percentage point increase in APS scores (representing stronger policy environments) was associated with an 8% reduction in the odds of youth drinking and a 7% reduction in the odds of youth binge drinking. After we accounted for youth-oriented alcohol policies, the subgroup of population-oriented policies was independently associated with lower odds of youth drinking (adjusted odds ratio 0.94; 95% confidence interval 0.92–0.97) and youth binge drinking (adjusted odds ratio 0.96; 95% confidence interval 0.94–0.99). State-level per capita consumption mediated the relationship between population-oriented alcohol policies and binge drinking among youth. CONCLUSIONS: Stronger alcohol policies, including those that do not target youth specifically, are related to a reduced likelihood of youth alcohol consumption. These findings suggest that efforts to reduce youth drinking should incorporate population-based policies to reduce excessive drinking among adults as part of a comprehensive approach to preventing alcohol-related harms. Future research should examine influence of alcohol policy subgroups and discrete policies. PMID:26034246

The hepatitis C virus nonstructural protein 3 Q80K polymorphism is frequently detected and transmitted among HIV-infected MSM in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Newsum, Astrid M; Ho, Cynthia K Y; Lieveld, Faydra I; van de Laar, Thijs J W; Koekkoek, Sylvie M; Rebers, Sjoerd P; van der Meer, Jan T M; Wensing, Anne M J; Boland, Greet J; Arends, Joop E; van Erpecum, Karel J; Prins, Maria; Molenkamp, Richard; Schinkel, Janke

2017-01-02

The Q80K polymorphism is a naturally occurring resistance-associated variant in the hepatitis C virus (HCV) nonstructural protein 3 (NS3) region and is likely transmissible between hosts. This study describes the Q80K origin and prevalence among HCV risk groups in the Netherlands and examines whether Q80K is linked to specific transmission networks. Stored blood samples from HCV genotype 1a-infected patients were used for PCR and sequencing to reconstruct the NS3 maximum likelihood phylogeny. The most recent common ancestor was estimated with a coalescent-based model within a Bayesian statistical framework. Study participants (n = 150) were either MSM (39%), people who inject drugs (17%), or patients with other (15%) or unknown/unreported (29%) risk behavior. Overall 45% was coinfected with HIV. Q80K was present in 36% (95% confidence interval 28-44%) of patients throughout the sample collection period (2000-2015) and was most prevalent in MSM (52%, 95% confidence interval 38-65%). Five MSM-specific transmission clusters were identified, of which three exclusively contained sequences with Q80K. The HCV-1a most recent common ancestor in the Netherlands was estimated in 1914 (95% higher posterior density 1879-1944) and Q80K originated in 1957 (95% higher posterior density 1942-1970) within HCV-1a clade I. All Q80K lineages could be traced back to this single origin. Q80K is a highly stable and transmissible resistance-associated variant and was present in a large part of Dutch HIV-coinfected MSM. The introduction and expansion of Q80K variants in this key population suggest a founder effect, potentially jeopardizing future treatment with simeprevir.

Opportunity missed: medical consultation, resource use, and quality of care of patients undergoing major surgery.

PubMed

Auerbach, Andrew D; Rasic, Mladen A; Sehgal, Neil; Ide, Brigid; Stone, Betsy; Maselli, Judith

2007-11-26

There is growing interest in collaborative management of surgical patients. However, few data describe how medical consultation influences quality of care or resource use. The objective of this study was to determine whether medical consultation improves care in surgical patients. Observational cohort of patients undergoing surgery between May 1, 2004, and May 31, 2006, at a university-based hospital. The outcomes included costs, hospital length of stay, use of preventive therapies (such as perioperative beta-blockers) and clinical outcomes. Of 1,282 patients, 117 (9.1%) underwent a perioperative medical consultation. Consulted patients were of a similar age, sex, and race, but more frequently had an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 4 or higher (34.2% vs 13.0%; P < .001), diabetes mellitus (29.1% vs 16.1%; P < .001), vascular disease (35.0% vs 10.6%; P < .01), or chronic renal failure (23.9% vs 5.6%; P < .001). After adjusting for severity of illness and likelihood of receiving a consultation, patients were just as likely to have a serum glucose level of less than 200 mg/dL (<11.1 mmol/L), receive perioperative beta-blockers, or receive venous thromboembolism prophylaxis. Consulted patients had a longer adjusted length of stay (12.98% longer; 95% confidence interval, 1.61%-25.61%) and higher adjusted costs (24.36% higher; 95% confidence interval, 13.54%-36.34%). Patients who had a consultation from a generalist did not receive different quality of care, but had costs and length of stay similar to nonconsulted patients. Our results may be influenced by unaccounted referral bias or severity of illness. Perioperative internal medicine consultation produces inconsistent effects on efficiency and quality of care in surgical patients. Modifying the consultative model may represent an opportunity to improve care.

Emerging Trends in Surgical and Adjuvant Radiation Therapies among Women Diagnosed with Ductal Carcinoma in Situ

PubMed Central

Shiyanbola, Oyewale O.; Sprague, Brian L.; Hampton, John M.; Dittus, Kim; James, Ted A.; Herschorn, Sally; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Weaver, Donald L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND The use of surgery and radiation therapy in treating ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is directed by treatment guidelines and evidence from research. We sought to investigate recent patterns in DCIS treatment by demographic factors. METHODS Data for women diagnosed with DCIS between 1998 and 2011 (n = 416,232) in the National Cancer Data Base were assessed for trends in treatment patterns by age group, calendar year, ancestral/ethnic group and geographic region. The likelihood of receiving specific treatment modalities was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS DCIS cases were most frequently treated with breast conserving surgery (BCS) and adjuvant radiation (45.6%). After an initial rise, the use of adjuvant radiation following BCS plateaued at around 70% after 2007, with increasing utilization of mastectomy beyond 2005. Additionally, there was an increasing trend in post-mastectomy reconstruction over time, and women of African ancestry (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval,0.66–0.72) and Hispanic women were less likely to undergo reconstruction (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.78–0.89) compared to women of European ancestry. A similar trend was observed in contralateral risk reducing mastectomy utilization, with women of European ancestry having a more rapid rise in the utilization of contralateral risk reducing mastectomy among all ancestral/ethnic groups. CONCLUSION Recent trends demonstrate a plateau in radiation therapy administration following BCS, with increasing utilization of mastectomy, reconstruction and contralateral risk reducing mastectomy. There are substantial differences in treatment utilization according to ancestry/ethnicity and geographical region. Further studies examining patient-physician decision making surrounding DCIS treatment are warranted. PMID:27244699

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Exposure to power frequency electric fields and the risk of childhood cancer in the UK

PubMed Central

Skinner, J; Mee, T J; Blackwell, R P; Maslanyj, M P; Simpson, J; Allen, S G; Day, N E

2002-01-01

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study covering the whole of Great Britain, incorporated a pilot study measuring electric fields. Measurements were made in the homes of 473 children who were diagnosed with a malignant neoplasm between 1992 and 1996 and who were aged 0–14 at diagnosis, together with 453 controls matched on age, sex and geographical location. Exposure assessments comprised resultant spot measurements in the child's bedroom and the family living-room. Temporal stability of bedroom fields was investigated through continuous logging of the 48-h vertical component at the child's bedside supported by repeat spot measurements. The principal exposure metric used was the mean of the pillow and bed centre measurements. For the 273 cases and 276 controls with fully validated measures, comparing those with a measured electric field exposure ⩾20 V m−1 to those in a reference category of exposure <10 V m−1, odds ratios of 1.31 (95% confidence interval 0.68–2.54) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.73–2.39) for total leukaemia, 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–5.78) for central nervous system cancers and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.77–2.07) for all malignancies were obtained. When considering the 426 cases and 419 controls with no invalid measures, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.49–1.51) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.54) for total leukaemia, 1.43 (95% confidence interval 0.68–3.02) for central nervous system cancers and 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.35) for all malignancies. With exposure modelled as a continuous variable, odds ratios for an increase in the principal metric of 10 V m−1 were close to unity for all disease categories, never differing significantly from one. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 1257–1266. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600602 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12439715

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

A population-based analysis of use and outcomes of laparoscopic bariatric surgery across socioeconomic groups in Taiwan.

PubMed

Huang, Chun-Che; Huang, Yu-Tung; Chiu, Chong-Chi

2015-11-11

With the growing development of minimally invasive techniques for the treatment of morbid obesity, laparoscopic bariatric surgery (LBS) is increasingly performed. This study aimed to assess the association between patients' socioeconomic status (SES) and the likelihood of undergoing LBS and related outcomes in Taiwan. This nationwide population-based study was conducted by using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 3678 morbidly obese patients aged 18 years and older who underwent conventional open bariatric surgery or LBS were identified between 2004 and 2011. Regression analyses were performed using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models to account for the nesting of patients within physician to assess patients' SES category associated with the use of LBS and related outcomes. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. Compared with those with medium and low SES (84.6 % and 80.2 %), patients with high SES (88.1 %) had the highest percentage of undergoing LBS (P < 0.001). After adjusting for patient demographics, institution and surgeon characteristics, the multivariate GEE analysis revealed that the highest likelihood of undergoing LBS was noted in morbidly obese patients with high SES (OR = 1.45, 95 % CI 1.10-1.90), followed by those with medium SES (OR = 1.27, 95 % CI 1.04-1.56). In addition, patients with high SES had slightly lower length of hospital stay (LOS; OR = 0.90, 95 % CI 0.82-0.99) and hospital treatment cost (OR = 0.93, 95 % CI 0.87-0.99) than their counterparts after adjustment. The increased likelihood of undergoing LBS and lower LOS and hospital treatment cost were noted among morbidly obese patients with higher SES. This finding suggests there is the need to improve clinical practice and reduce health disparities in the surgical treatment of morbidly obese patients.

Social characteristics associated with disparities in smoking rates in Israel.

PubMed

Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra; Chetrit, Angela; Avni, Shlomit; Averbuch, Emma; Novikov, Ilya; Daoud, Nihaya

2016-01-01

Cigarette smoking is a major cause of health disparities. We aimed to determine social characteristics associated with smoking status and age at smoking initiation in the ethnically-diverse population of Israel. This is a cross-sectional survey, based on data collected during 2010 by the Israel Bureau of Statistics, in a representative nationwide sample of 7,524 adults (≥20 years). Information collected by personal interviews included a broad set of demographic and socio-economic characteristics and detailed information on smoking habits. Associations between social characteristics and smoking habits were tested in multivariable regression models. Current smoking was more frequent among men than among women (30.9 % vs. 16.8 %; p  < 0.0001). In multivariable regression analysis, the association of some social characteristics with smoking status differed by gender. Lower socioeconomic status (reflected by higher rate of unemployment, lower income, possession of fewer material assets, difficulty to meet living expenses) and lower educational level were significantly associated with current smoking among men but not among women. Family status other than being married was associated with higher likelihood of being a current smoker, while being traditional or observant was associated with a lower likelihood of ever smoking among both gender groups. Arab minority men and male immigrants from the former Soviet Union countries were more frequently current smokers than Israeli-born Jewish men [adjusted odds ratio (95 % confidence interval): 1.53 (1.22, 1.93) and 1.37 (1.01-1.87), respectively]. Compared to Israeli-born men, the age at smoking initiation was younger among male immigrants, and older among Arab minority men [adjusted hazard ratio (95 % confidence interval): 1.360 (1.165-1.586), and 0.849 (0.749-0.962), respectively]. While the prevalence of current smoking was lower in younger birth cohorts, the age at smoking initiation among ever-smokers declined as well. Among several subgroups within the Israeli population the smoking uptake is high, e.g. Arab men, men who are less affluent, who have lower educational level, and male immigrants. These subgroups should be prioritized for intervention to reduce the burden of smoking. To be effective, gender, cultural background and socioeconomic characteristics should be considered in the design and implementation of culturally-congruent tobacco control and smoking prevention and cessation interventions.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

Empiric auto-titrating CPAP in people with suspected obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Drummond, Fitzgerald; Doelken, Peter; Ahmed, Qanta A; Gilbert, Gregory E; Strange, Charlie; Herpel, Laura; Frye, Michael D

2010-04-15

Efficient diagnosis and treatment of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) can be difficult because of time delays imposed by clinic visits and serial overnight polysomnography. In some cases, it may be desirable to initiate treatment for suspected OSA prior to polysomnography. Our objective was to compare the improvement of daytime sleepiness and sleep-related quality of life of patients with high clinical likelihood of having OSA who were randomly assigned to receive empiric auto-titrating continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) while awaiting polysomnogram versus current usual care. Serial patients referred for overnight polysomnography who had high clinical likelihood of having OSA were randomly assigned to usual care or immediate initiation of auto-titrating CPAP. Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) scores and the Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire (FOSQ) scores were obtained at baseline, 1 month after randomization, and again after initiation of fixed CPAP in control subjects and after the sleep study in auto-CPAP patients. One hundred nine patients were randomized. Baseline demographics, daytime sleepiness, and sleep-related quality of life scores were similar between groups. One-month ESS and FOSQ scores were improved in the group empirically treated with auto-titrating CPAP. ESS scores improved in the first month by a mean of -3.2 (confidence interval -1.6 to -4.8, p < 0.001) and FOSQ scores improved by a mean of 1.5, (confidence interval 0.5 to 2.7, p = 0.02), whereas scores in the usual-care group did not change (p = NS). Following therapy directed by overnight polysomnography in the control group, there were no differences in ESS or FOSQ between the groups. No adverse events were observed. Empiric auto-CPAP resulted in symptomatic improvement of daytime sleepiness and sleep-related quality of life in a cohort of patients awaiting polysomnography who had a high pretest probability of having OSA. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the applicability of empiric treatment to other populations.

African Americans Are Less Likely to Receive Care by a Cardiologist During an Intensive Care Unit Admission for Heart Failure.

PubMed

Breathett, Khadijah; Liu, Wenhui G; Allen, Larry A; Daugherty, Stacie L; Blair, Irene V; Jones, Jacqueline; Grunwald, Gary K; Moss, Marc; Kiser, Tyree H; Burnham, Ellen; Vandivier, R William; Clark, Brendan J; Lewis, Eldrin F; Mazimba, Sula; Battaglia, Catherine; Ho, P Michael; Peterson, Pamela N

2018-05-01

This study sought to determine whether the likelihood of receiving primary intensive care unit (ICU) care by a cardiologist versus a noncardiologist was greater for Caucasians than for African Americans admitted to an ICU for heart failure (HF). The authors further evaluated whether primary ICU care by a cardiologist is associated with higher in-hospital survival, irrespective of race. Increasing data demonstrate an association between better HF outcomes and care by a cardiologist. It is unclear if previously noted racial differences in cardiology care persist in an ICU setting. Using the Premier database, adult patients admitted to an ICU with a primary discharge diagnosis of HF from 2010 to 2014 were included. Hierarchical logistic regression models were used to determine the association between race and primary ICU care by a cardiologist, adjusting for patient and hospital variables. Cox regression with inverse probability weighting was used to assess the association between cardiology care and in-hospital mortality. Among 104,835 patients (80.3% Caucasians, 19.7% African Americans), Caucasians had higher odds of care by a cardiologist than African Americans (adjusted odds ratio: 1.42; 95% confidence interval: 1.34 to 1.51). Compared with a noncardiologist, primary ICU care by a cardiologist was associated with higher in-hospital survival (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.11 to 1.28). The higher likelihood of survival did not differ by patient race (interaction p = 0.32). Among patients admitted to an ICU for HF, African Americans were less likely than Caucasians to receive primary care by a cardiologist. Primary care by a cardiologist was associated with higher survival for both Caucasians and African Americans. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of Care for Elderly Patients With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer.

PubMed

Juarez, Jesus E; Choi, Jehee; St John, Maie; Abemayor, Elliot; TenNapel, Mindi; Chen, Allen M

2017-07-15

To compare patterns of care for elderly patients aged ≥70 years with locally advanced head and neck cancer versus those of younger patients treated for the same disease. The medical records of 421 consecutive patients over the age of 50 years treated at a single institution between April 2011 and June 2016 for stage III/IV squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were reviewed. The primary treatment approach was compared using a t test statistic among 3 age cohorts: 50 to 59 years (118 patients); 60 to 69 years (152 patients); and 70 years and older (151 patients). Logistical regression was used to determine variables that influenced the likelihood of receiving surgery versus nonsurgical treatment, as well as radiation alone versus chemoradiation. There was no difference in sex, T stage, N stage, Karnofsky performance status, or the number of chronic comorbid conditions among the 3 age cohorts (P>.05 for all). A greater proportion of elderly patients aged ≥70 years were treated by radiation alone compared with those aged 50 to 59 and 60 to 69 years (44% vs 16% and 24%, P=.01). Increasing age was associated with a greater likelihood of receiving primary nonsurgical versus surgical treatment (odds ratio 1.023, 95% confidence interval 1.004-1.042) and radiation alone compared with chemoradiation (odds ratio 1.054; 95% confidence interval 1.034-1.075). Ten chemotherapy regimens were used concurrently with radiation for patients aged ≥70 years, including carboplatin/paclitaxel (19%), carboplatin/cetuximab (19%), cisplatin (17%), and cetuximab (17%). Despite similar performance status and comorbidity burden compared with their younger counterparts, patients aged ≥70 years were more commonly treated with less-aggressive strategies, including radiation alone. The variability of concurrent chemotherapy regimens used further suggests that the standard of care remains to be defined for this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Salty-snack eating, television or video-game viewing, and asthma symptoms among 10- to 12-year-old children: the PANACEA study.

PubMed

Arvaniti, Fotini; Priftis, Kostas N; Papadimitriou, Anastasios; Yiallouros, Panayiotis; Kapsokefalou, Maria; Anthracopoulos, Michael B; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B

2011-02-01

Salty-snack consumption, as well as the amount of time children spend watching television or playing video games, have been implicated in the development of asthma; however, results are still conflicting. The aim of this work was to evaluate the association of salty-snack eating and television/video-game viewing with childhood asthma symptoms. Cross-sectional study. Seven hundred children (323 male), 10 to 12 years old, from 18 schools located in the greater area of Athens were enrolled. Children and their parents completed questionnaires, which evaluated, among other things, dietary habits. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was evaluated using the KIDMED (Mediterranean Diet Quality Index for Children and Adolescents) score. The association of children's characteristics with asthma symptoms was performed by calculating the odds ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Overall lifetime prevalence of asthma symptoms was 23.7% (27.6% boys, 20.4% girls; P=0.03). Forty-eight percent of children reported salty-snack consumption (≥ 1 times/week). Salty-snack consumption was positively associated with the hours of television/video-game viewing (P=0.04) and inversely with the KIDMED score (P=0.02). Consumption of salty snacks (>3 times/week vs never/rare) was associated with a 4.8-times higher likelihood of having asthma symptoms (95% confidence interval: 1.50 to 15.8), irrespective of potential confounders. The associations of salty-snack eating and asthma symptoms were more prominent in children who watched television or played video games >2 hours/day. In addition, adherence to the Mediterranean diet was inversely associated with the likelihood of asthma symptoms. Unhealthy lifestyle behaviors, such as salty-snack eating and television/video-game viewing were strongly associated with the presence of asthma symptoms. Future interventions and public health messages should be focused on changing these behaviors from the early stages of life. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vegetables- and antioxidant-related nutrients, genetic susceptibility, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk

PubMed Central

Kelemen, Linda E.; Wang, Sophia S.; Lim, Unhee; Cozen, Wendy; Schenk, Maryjean; Hartge, Patricia; Li, Yan; Rothman, Nathaniel; Davis, Scott; Chanock, Stephen J.; Ward, Mary H.

2009-01-01

Genetic susceptibility to DNA oxidation, carcinogen metabolism, and altered DNA repair may increase non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) risk, whereas vegetables-and antioxidant-related nutrients may decrease risk. We evaluated the interaction of a priori-defined dietary factors with 28 polymorphisms in these metabolic pathways. Incident cases (n = 1,141) were identified during 1998–2000 from four cancer registries and frequency-matched to population-based controls (n = 949). We estimated diet-gene joint effects using two-phase semi-parametric maximum-likelihood methods, which utilized genotype data from all subjects as well as 371 cases and 311 controls with available diet information. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were lower among common allele carriers with higher dietary intakes. For the GSTM3 3-base insertion and higher total vegetable intake, the risk was 0.56 (0.35–0.92, p interaction = 0.03); for GSTP1 A114V and higher cruciferous vegetable intake, the risk was 0.52 (0.34–0.81, p interaction = 0.02); for OGG1 S326C and higher daily zinc intake, the risk was 0.71 (0.47–1.08, p interaction = 0.04) and for XRCC3 T241M and higher green leafy vegetable intake, the risk was 0.63 (0.41–0.97, p interaction = 0.03). Calculation of the false positive report probability determined a high likelihood of falsely positive associations. Although most associations have not been examined previously with NHL, our results suggest the examined polymorphisms are not modifiers of the association between vegetable and zinc intakes and NHL risk. PMID:18204928

Sustainability of a parental tobacco control intervention in pediatric practice.

PubMed

Winickoff, Jonathan P; Nabi-Burza, Emara; Chang, Yuchiao; Regan, Susan; Drehmer, Jeremy; Finch, Stacia; Wasserman, Richard; Ossip, Deborah; Hipple, Bethany; Woo, Heide; Klein, Jonathan; Rigotti, Nancy A

2014-11-01

To determine whether an evidence-based pediatric outpatient intervention for parents who smoke persisted after initial implementation. A cluster randomized controlled trial of 20 pediatric practices in 16 states that received either Clinical and Community Effort Against Secondhand Smoke Exposure (CEASE) intervention or usual care. The intervention provided practices with training to provide evidence-based assistance to parents who smoke. The primary outcome, assessed by the 12-month follow-up telephone survey with parents, was provision of meaningful tobacco control assistance, defined as discussing various strategies to quit smoking, discussing smoking cessation medication, or recommending the use of the state quitline after initial enrollment visit. We also assessed parental quit rates at 12 months, determined by self-report and biochemical verification. Practices' rates of providing any meaningful tobacco control assistance (55% vs 19%), discussing various strategies to quit smoking (25% vs 10%), discussing cessation medication (41% vs 11%), and recommending the use of the quitline (37% vs 9%) were all significantly higher in the intervention than in the control groups, respectively (P < .0001 for each), during the 12-month postintervention implementation. Receiving any assistance was associated with a cotinine-confirmed quitting adjusted odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-3.19). After controlling for demographic and behavioral factors, the adjusted odds ratio for cotinine-confirmed quitting in intervention versus control practices was 1.07 (95% confidence interval: 0.64-1.78). Intervention practices had higher rates of delivering tobacco control assistance than usual care practices over the 1-year follow-up period. Parents who received any assistance were more likely to quit smoking; however, parents' likelihood of quitting smoking was not statistically different between the intervention and control groups. Maximizing parental quit rates will require more complete systems-level integration and adjunctive cessation strategies. Copyright © 2014 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Comparison of WBRT alone, SRS alone, and their combination in the treatment of one or more brain metastases: Review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Muhammad; Lin, Jie; Liao, Guixiang; Li, Rong; Wang, Baiyao; Xie, Guozhu; Zheng, Jieling; Yuan, Yawei

2017-07-01

Whole brain radiotherapy has been a standard treatment of brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery provides more focal and aggressive radiation and normal tissue sparing but worse local and distant control. This meta-analysis was performed to assess and compare the effectiveness of whole brain radiotherapy alone, stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and their combination in the treatment of brain metastases based on randomized controlled trial studies. Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) were searched to identify randomized controlled trial studies that compared treatment outcome of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery. This meta-analysis was performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) software (version 5.2) that is provided by the Cochrane Collaboration. The data used were hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated for time-to-event data extracted from survival curves and local tumor control rate curves. Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous data, while mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for continuous data. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were adopted according to heterogeneity. Five studies (n = 763) were included in this meta-analysis meeting the inclusion criteria. All the included studies were randomized controlled trials. The sample size ranged from 27 to 331. In total 202 (26%) patients with whole brain radiotherapy alone, 196 (26%) patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and 365 (48%) patients were in whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery group. No significant survival benefit was observed for any treatment approach; hazard ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.43, p = 0.12) based on three randomized controlled trials for whole brain radiotherapy only compared to whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery and hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.29, p = 0.81) for stereotactic radiosurgery only compared to combined approach. Local control was best achieved when whole brain radiotherapy was combined with stereotactic radiosurgery. Hazard ratio 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.09, p = 0.0006) and hazard ratio 1.84 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-2.70, p = 0.002) were obtained from comparing whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only to whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery, respectively. No difference in adverse events for treatment difference; odds ratio 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-1.76, p = 0.48) and odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.42, p = 71) for whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy only and whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus stereotactic radiosurgery only, respectively. Adding stereotactic radiosurgery to whole brain radiotherapy provides better local control as compared to whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only with no difference in radiation related toxicities.

Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from postmortem human subject tests under axial impacts.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Szabo, Aniko

2014-01-01

Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. The study reexamined lower leg postmortem human subjects (PMHS) data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and noninjury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the covariable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal, and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike information criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. The mean age, stature, and weight were 58.2±15.1 years, 1.74±0.08 m, and 74.9±13.8 kg, respectively. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other 2 distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-olds at 5, 25, and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45, and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk; and 10.4, 8.3, and 6.6 kN at 50% risk, respectively. This study derived axial loading-induced injury risk curves based on survival analysis using peak force and specimen age; adopting different censoring schemes; considering overly influential samples in the analysis; and assessing the quality of the distribution at discrete probability levels. Because procedures used in the present survival analysis are accepted by international automotive communities, current optimum human injury probability distributions can be used at all risk levels with more confidence in future crashworthiness applications for automotive and other disciplines.

Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

PubMed

Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

2017-11-01

Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Estimation After a Group Sequential Trial.

PubMed

Milanzi, Elasma; Molenberghs, Geert; Alonso, Ariel; Kenward, Michael G; Tsiatis, Anastasios A; Davidian, Marie; Verbeke, Geert

2015-10-01

Group sequential trials are one important instance of studies for which the sample size is not fixed a priori but rather takes one of a finite set of pre-specified values, dependent on the observed data. Much work has been devoted to the inferential consequences of this design feature. Molenberghs et al (2012) and Milanzi et al (2012) reviewed and extended the existing literature, focusing on a collection of seemingly disparate, but related, settings, namely completely random sample sizes, group sequential studies with deterministic and random stopping rules, incomplete data, and random cluster sizes. They showed that the ordinary sample average is a viable option for estimation following a group sequential trial, for a wide class of stopping rules and for random outcomes with a distribution in the exponential family. Their results are somewhat surprising in the sense that the sample average is not optimal, and further, there does not exist an optimal, or even, unbiased linear estimator. However, the sample average is asymptotically unbiased, both conditionally upon the observed sample size as well as marginalized over it. By exploiting ignorability they showed that the sample average is the conventional maximum likelihood estimator. They also showed that a conditional maximum likelihood estimator is finite sample unbiased, but is less efficient than the sample average and has the larger mean squared error. Asymptotically, the sample average and the conditional maximum likelihood estimator are equivalent. This previous work is restricted, however, to the situation in which the the random sample size can take only two values, N = n or N = 2 n . In this paper, we consider the more practically useful setting of sample sizes in a the finite set { n 1 , n 2 , …, n L }. It is shown that the sample average is then a justifiable estimator , in the sense that it follows from joint likelihood estimation, and it is consistent and asymptotically unbiased. We also show why simulations can give the false impression of bias in the sample average when considered conditional upon the sample size. The consequence is that no corrections need to be made to estimators following sequential trials. When small-sample bias is of concern, the conditional likelihood estimator provides a relatively straightforward modification to the sample average. Finally, it is shown that classical likelihood-based standard errors and confidence intervals can be applied, obviating the need for technical corrections.

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam

PubMed Central

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-01-01

Background To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12–15 years of age in Ba Ria – Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Design Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants 2238 secondary school children. Methods Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Main Outcome Measures Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. Results The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5–26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8–15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (–0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8–28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0–0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2–1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Conclusions Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. PMID:24299145

Prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Paudel, Prakash; Ramson, Prasidh; Naduvilath, Thomas; Wilson, David; Phuong, Ha Thanh; Ho, Suit M; Giap, Nguyen V

2014-04-01

To assess the prevalence of vision impairment and refractive error in school children 12-15 years of age in Ba Ria - Vung Tau province, Vietnam. Prospective, cross-sectional study. 2238 secondary school children. Subjects were selected based on stratified multistage cluster sampling of 13 secondary schools from urban, rural and semi-urban areas. The examination included visual acuity measurements, ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic autorefraction, and examination of the external eye, anterior segment, media and fundus. Visual acuity and principal cause of vision impairment. The prevalence of uncorrected and presenting visual acuity ≤6/12 in the better eye were 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.5-26.3) and 12.2% (95% confidence interval, 8.8-15.6), respectively. Refractive error was the cause of vision impairment in 92.7%, amblyopia in 2.2%, cataract in 0.7%, retinal disorders in 0.4%, other causes in 1.5% and unexplained causes in the remaining 2.6%. The prevalence of vision impairment due to myopia in either eye (-0.50 diopter or greater) was 20.4% (95% confidence interval, 12.8-28.0), hyperopia (≥2.00 D) was 0.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.0-0.7) and emmetropia with astigmatism (≥0.75 D) was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-1.2). Vision impairment due to myopia was associated with higher school grade and increased time spent reading and working on a computer. Uncorrected refractive error, particularly myopia, among secondary school children in Vietnam is a major public health problem. School-based eye health initiative such as refractive error screening is warranted to reduce vision impairment. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Dietary Pattern and Risk of Hodgkin Lymphoma in a Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Epstein, Mara M.; Chang, Ellen T.; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T.; Batista, Julie L.; Ambinder, Richard F.; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E.; Birmann, Brenda M.

2015-01-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997–2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns (“vegetable,” “high meat,” “fruit/low-fat dairy,” “desserts/sweets”) using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. PMID:26182945

Dietary pattern and risk of hodgkin lymphoma in a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Epstein, Mara M; Chang, Ellen T; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T; Batista, Julie L; Ambinder, Richard F; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E; Birmann, Brenda M

2015-09-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997-2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns ("vegetable," "high meat," "fruit/low-fat dairy," "desserts/sweets") using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

PubMed Central

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research. PMID:26579002

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

PubMed

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research.

Evaluation of a single-item screening question to detect limited health literacy in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Jain, Deepika; Sheth, Heena; Bender, Filitsa H; Weisbord, Steven D; Green, Jamie A

2014-01-01

Studies have shown that a single-item question might be useful in identifying patients with limited health literacy. However, the utility of the approach has not been studied in patients receiving maintenance peritoneal dialysis (PD). We assessed health literacy in a cohort of 31 PD patients by administering the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM) and a single-item health literacy (SHL) screening question "How confident are you filling out medical forms by yourself?" (Extremely, Quite a bit, Somewhat, A little bit, or Not at all). To determine the accuracy of the single-item question for detecting limited health literacy, we performed sensitivity and specificity analyses of the SHL and plotted the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve using the REALM as a reference standard. Using a cut-off of "Somewhat" or less confident, the sensitivity of the SHL for detecting limited health literacy was 80%, and the specificity was 88%. The positive likelihood ratio was 6.9. The SHL had an AUROC of 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.52 to 1.00). Our results show that the SHL could be effective in detecting limited health literacy in PD patients.

Intrauterine instillation of diluted seminal plasma at oocyte pick-up does not increase the IVF pregnancy rate: a double-blind, placebo controlled, randomized study.

PubMed

von Wolff, M; Rösner, S; Germeyer, A; Jauckus, J; Griesinger, G; Strowitzki, T

2013-12-01

Does intrauterine application of diluted seminal plasma (SP) at the time of ovum pick-up improve the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF treatment? Intrauterine instillation of diluted SP at the time of ovum pick-up is unlikely to increase the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF. SP modulates endometrial function, and sexual intercourse around the time of embryo transfer has been suggested to increase the likelihood of pregnancy. A previous randomized double-blind pilot study demonstrated a strong trend towards increased pregnancy rates following the intracervical application of undiluted SP. As this study was not conclusive and as the finding could have been confounded by sexual intercourse, the intrauterine application of diluted SP was investigated in the present trial. A single-centre, prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, superiority trial on women undergoing IVF was conducted from April 2007 until February 2012 at the University Department of Gynaecological Endocrinology and Reproductive Medicine, Heidelberg, Germany. The study was powered to detect an 14% increase in the clinical pregnancy rate and two sequential tests were planned using the Pocock spending function. At the first interim analysis, 279 women had been randomly assigned to intrauterine diluted SP (20% SP in saline from the patients' partner) (n = 138) or placebo (n = 141) at the time of ovum pick-up. The clinical pregnancy rate per randomized patient was 37/138 (26.8%) in the SP group and 41/141 (29.1%) in the placebo group (difference: -2.3%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +8.2%; P = 0.69). The live birth rate per randomized patient was 28/138 (20.3%) in the SP group and 33/141 (23.4%) in the placebo group (difference: -3.1%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +6.6%; P = 0.56). It was decided to terminate the trial due to futility at the first interim analysis, at a conditional power of 62%. The confidence interval of the difference remains wide, thus clinically relevant differences cannot reliably be excluded based on this single study. The results of this study cast doubt on the validity of the concept that SP increases endometrial receptivity and thus implantation in humans. Funding was provided by the department's own research facilities. DRKS00004615.

Comparing the Performance of Improved Classify-Analyze Approaches For Distal Outcomes in Latent Profile Analysis

PubMed Central

Dziak, John J.; Bray, Bethany C.; Zhang, Jieting; Zhang, Minqiang; Lanza, Stephanie T.

2016-01-01

Several approaches are available for estimating the relationship of latent class membership to distal outcomes in latent profile analysis (LPA). A three-step approach is commonly used, but has problems with estimation bias and confidence interval coverage. Proposed improvements include the correction method of Bolck, Croon, and Hagenaars (BCH; 2004), Vermunt’s (2010) maximum likelihood (ML) approach, and the inclusive three-step approach of Bray, Lanza, & Tan (2015). These methods have been studied in the related case of latent class analysis (LCA) with categorical indicators, but not as well studied for LPA with continuous indicators. We investigated the performance of these approaches in LPA with normally distributed indicators, under different conditions of distal outcome distribution, class measurement quality, relative latent class size, and strength of association between latent class and the distal outcome. The modified BCH implemented in Latent GOLD had excellent performance. The maximum likelihood and inclusive approaches were not robust to violations of distributional assumptions. These findings broadly agree with and extend the results presented by Bakk and Vermunt (2016) in the context of LCA with categorical indicators. PMID:28630602

Childhood Sports Participation and Adolescent Sport Profile.

PubMed

Gallant, François; O'Loughlin, Jennifer L; Brunet, Jennifer; Sabiston, Catherine M; Bélanger, Mathieu

2017-12-01

We aimed to increase understanding of the link between sport specialization during childhood and adolescent physical activity (PA). The objectives were as follows: (1) describe the natural course of sport participation over 5 years among children who are early sport samplers or early sport specializers and (2) determine if a sport participation profile in childhood predicts the sport profile in adolescence. Participants ( n = 756, ages 10-11 years at study inception) reported their participation in organized and unorganized PA during in-class questionnaires administered every 4 months over 5 years. They were categorized as early sport samplers, early sport specializers, or nonparticipants in year 1 and as recreational sport participants, performance sport participants, or nonparticipants in years 2 to 5. The likelihood that a childhood sport profile would predict the adolescent profile was computed as relative risks. Polynomial logistic regression was used to identify predictors of an adolescent sport profile. Compared with early sport specialization and nonparticipation, early sport sampling in childhood was associated with a higher likelihood of recreational participation (relative risk, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 1.18-2.03) and a lower likelihood of nonparticipation (0.69, 0.51-0.93) in adolescence. Early sport specialization was associated with a higher likelihood of performance participation (1.65, 1.19-2.28) but not of nonparticipation (1.01, 0.70-1.47) in adolescence. Nonparticipation in childhood was associated with nearly doubling the likelihood of nonparticipation in adolescence (1.88, 1.36-2.62). Sport sampling should be promoted in childhood because it may be linked to higher PA levels during adolescence. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

2014-05-01

One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input variable of different ANN structures [3]. The performance of each ANN structure is evaluated by the voting analysis based on eleven criteria, which are the root mean square error (RMSE), the correlation index (R), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the mean percentage error (MPE), the mean percentage error (ME), the percentage volume in errors (VE), the percentage error in peak (MF), the normalized mean bias error (NMBE), the normalized root mean bias error (NRMSE), the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E1). The next day flow for the test set is calculated using the best ANN structure's model. Consequently, the confidence intervals of various confidence levels for training, evaluation and test sets are compared in order to explore the generalisation dynamics of confidence intervals from training and evaluation sets. [1] H.S. Hippert, C.E. Pedreira, R.C. Souza, "Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 16, no. 1, 2001, pp. 44-55. [2] G. J. Tsekouras, N.E. Mastorakis, F.D. Kanellos, V.T. Kontargyri, C.D. Tsirekis, I.S. Karanasiou, Ch.N. Elias, A.D. Salis, P.A. Kontaxis, A.A. Gialketsi: "Short term load forecasting in Greek interconnected power system using ANN: Confidence Interval using a novel re-sampling technique with corrective Factor", WSEAS International Conference on Circuits, Systems, Electronics, Control & Signal Processing, (CSECS '10), Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece, December 29-31, 2010. [3] D. Panagoulia, I. Trichakis, G. J. Tsekouras: "Flow Forecasting via Artificial Neural Networks - A Study for Input Variables conditioned on atmospheric circulation", European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2012 (NH1.1 / AS1.16 - Extreme meteorological and hydrological events induced by severe weather and climate change), Vienna, Austria, 22-27 April 2012.

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

Treesearch

Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

Reliability estimation of a N- M-cold-standby redundancy system in a multicomponent stress-strength model with generalized half-logistic distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yiming; Shi, Yimin; Bai, Xuchao; Zhan, Pei

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the estimation for the reliability of a multicomponent system, named N- M-cold-standby redundancy system, based on progressive Type-II censoring sample. In the system, there are N subsystems consisting of M statistically independent distributed strength components, and only one of these subsystems works under the impact of stresses at a time and the others remain as standbys. Whenever the working subsystem fails, one from the standbys takes its place. The system fails when the entire subsystems fail. It is supposed that the underlying distributions of random strength and stress both belong to the generalized half-logistic distribution with different shape parameter. The reliability of the system is estimated by using both classical and Bayesian statistical inference. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the reliability of the system are derived. Under squared error loss function, the exact expression of the Bayes estimator for the reliability of the system is developed by using the Gauss hypergeometric function. The asymptotic confidence interval and corresponding coverage probabilities are derived based on both the Fisher and the observed information matrices. The approximate highest probability density credible interval is constructed by using Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed reliability estimators. A real data set is also analyzed for an illustration of the findings.

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Prevalence of infections among residents of Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Choy, C Sm; Chen, H; Yau, C Sw; Hsu, E K; Chik, N Y; Wong, A Ty

2016-08-01

A point prevalence study was conducted to study the epidemiology of common infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong and their associated factors. Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong were selected by stratified single-stage cluster random sampling. All residents aged 65 years or above from the recruited homes were surveyed. Infections were identified using standardised definitions. Demographic and health information-including medical history, immunisation record, antibiotic use, and activities of daily living (as measured by Barthel Index)-was collected by a survey team to determine any associated factors. Data were collected from 3857 residents in 46 Residential Care Homes for the Elderly from February to May 2014. A total of 105 residents had at least one type of infection based on the survey definition. The overall prevalence of all infections was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-3.4%). The three most common infections were of the respiratory tract (1.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%-1.9%), skin and soft tissue (0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.0%), and urinary tract (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-0.9%). Total dependence in activities of daily living, as indicated by low Barthel Index score of 0 to 20 (odds ratio=3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.2), and presence of a wound or stoma (odds ratio=2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9) were significantly associated with presence of infection. This survey provides information about infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in the territory. Local data enable us to understand the burden of infections and formulate targeted measures for prevention.

Influence of Objective Three-Dimensional Measures and Movement Images on Surgeon Treatment Planning for Lip Revision Surgery

PubMed Central

Trotman, Carroll-Ann; Phillips, Ceib; Faraway, Julian J.; Hartman, Terry; van Aalst, John A.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a systematic evaluation of facial soft tissues of patients with cleft lip and palate, using facial video images and objective three-dimensional measurements of movement, change surgeons’ treatment plans for lip revision surgery. Design Prospective longitudinal study. Setting The University of North Carolina School of Dentistry. Patients, Participants A group of patients with repaired cleft lip and palate (n = 21), a noncleft control group (n = 37), and surgeons experienced in cleft care. Interventions Lip revision. Main Outcome Measures (1) facial photographic images; (2) facial video images during animations; (3) objective three-dimensional measurements of upper lip movement based on z scores; and (4) objective dynamic and visual three-dimensional measurement of facial soft tissue movement. Results With the use of the video images plus objective three-dimensional measures, changes were made to the problem list of the surgical treatment plan for 86% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.97) and the surgical goals for 71% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.48 to 0.89). The surgeon group varied in the percentage of patients for whom the problem list was modified, ranging from 24% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 47%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients, and the percentage for whom the surgical goals were modified, ranging from 14% (94% confidence interval, 3% to 36%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients. Conclusions For all surgeons, the additional assessment components of the systematic valuation resulted in a change in clinical decision making for some patients. PMID:23855676

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Effective field theory search for high-energy nuclear recoils using the XENON100 dark matter detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprile, E.; Aalbers, J.; Agostini, F.; Alfonsi, M.; Amaro, F. D.; Anthony, M.; Arneodo, F.; Barrow, P.; Baudis, L.; Bauermeister, B.; Benabderrahmane, M. L.; Berger, T.; Breur, P. A.; Brown, A.; Brown, E.; Bruenner, S.; Bruno, G.; Budnik, R.; Bütikofer, L.; Calvén, J.; Cardoso, J. M. R.; Cervantes, M.; Cichon, D.; Coderre, D.; Colijn, A. P.; Conrad, J.; Cussonneau, J. P.; Decowski, M. P.; de Perio, P.; di Gangi, P.; di Giovanni, A.; Diglio, S.; Eurin, G.; Fei, J.; Ferella, A. D.; Fieguth, A.; Fulgione, W.; Gallo Rosso, A.; Galloway, M.; Gao, F.; Garbini, M.; Geis, C.; Goetzke, L. W.; Greene, Z.; Grignon, C.; Hasterok, C.; Hogenbirk, E.; Itay, R.; Kaminsky, B.; Kazama, S.; Kessler, G.; Kish, A.; Landsman, H.; Lang, R. F.; Lellouch, D.; Levinson, L.; Lin, Q.; Lindemann, S.; Lindner, M.; Lombardi, F.; Lopes, J. A. M.; Manfredini, A.; Maris, I.; Marrodán Undagoitia, T.; Masbou, J.; Massoli, F. V.; Masson, D.; Mayani, D.; Messina, M.; Micheneau, K.; Molinario, A.; Morâ, K.; Murra, M.; Naganoma, J.; Ni, K.; Oberlack, U.; Pakarha, P.; Pelssers, B.; Persiani, R.; Piastra, F.; Pienaar, J.; Pizzella, V.; Piro, M.-C.; Plante, G.; Priel, N.; Rauch, L.; Reichard, S.; Reuter, C.; Rizzo, A.; Rosendahl, S.; Rupp, N.; Dos Santos, J. M. F.; Sartorelli, G.; Scheibelhut, M.; Schindler, S.; Schreiner, J.; Schumann, M.; Scotto Lavina, L.; Selvi, M.; Shagin, P.; Silva, M.; Simgen, H.; Sivers, M. V.; Stein, A.; Thers, D.; Tiseni, A.; Trinchero, G.; Tunnell, C.; Vargas, M.; Wang, H.; Wang, Z.; Wei, Y.; Weinheimer, C.; Wulf, J.; Ye, J.; Zhang., Y.; Farmer, B.; Xenon Collaboration

2017-08-01

We report on weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) search results in the XENON100 detector using a nonrelativistic effective field theory approach. The data from science run II (34 kg ×224.6 live days) were reanalyzed, with an increased recoil energy interval compared to previous analyses, ranging from (6.6 -240 ) keVnr . The data are found to be compatible with the background-only hypothesis. We present 90% confidence level exclusion limits on the coupling constants of WIMP-nucleon effective operators using a binned profile likelihood method. We also consider the case of inelastic WIMP scattering, where incident WIMPs may up-scatter to a higher mass state, and set exclusion limits on this model as well.

Changes of Attitudes and Patronage Behaviors in Response to a Smoke-Free Bar Law

PubMed Central

Tang, Hao; Cowling, David W.; Lloyd, Jon C.; Rogers, Todd; Koumjian, Kristi L.; Stevens, Colleen M.; Bal, Dileep G.

2003-01-01

Objectives. We examined patron responses to a California smoke-free bar law. Methods. Three telephone surveys measured attitudes and behavior changes after implementation of the law. Results. Approval of the law rose from 59.8% to 73.2% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.40). Self-reported noncompliance decreased from 24.6% to 14.0% (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.30, 0.85). Likelihood of visiting a bar or of not changing bar patronage after the law was implemented increased from 86% to 91% (OR = 1.76; 95% CI = 1.29, 2.40). Conclusions. California bar patrons increasingly support and comply with the smoke-free bar law. PMID:12660206

Statistical analysis of field data for aircraft warranties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakey, Mary J.

Air Force and Navy maintenance data collection systems were researched to determine their scientific applicability to the warranty process. New and unique algorithms were developed to extract failure distributions which were then used to characterize how selected families of equipment typically fails. Families of similar equipment were identified in terms of function, technology and failure patterns. Statistical analyses and applications such as goodness-of-fit test, maximum likelihood estimation and derivation of confidence intervals for the probability density function parameters were applied to characterize the distributions and their failure patterns. Statistical and reliability theory, with relevance to equipment design and operational failures were also determining factors in characterizing the failure patterns of the equipment families. Inferences about the families with relevance to warranty needs were then made.

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Practice Patterns and Outcomes for Pemetrexed Plus Platinum Doublet as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Adenocarcinomas of Lung: Looking Beyond the Usual Paradigm.

PubMed

Noronha, V; Zanwar, S; Joshi, A; Patil, V M; Mahajan, A; Janu, A; Agarwal, J P; Bhargava, P; Kapoor, A; Prabhash, K

2018-01-01

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is the standard of care in non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) with locally advanced N2 disease. There is a scarcity of data for the pemetrexed-platinum regimen as NACT. Also, apart from N2 disease, the role of NACT in locally advanced NSCLCs for tumour downstaging is unclear. Non-metastatic adenocarcinomas of lung treated with pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT were analysed. The patients with locoregionally advanced N2 disease and those who were borderline candidates for upfront definitive treatment were planned for NACT after discussion in a multidisciplinary clinic. In total, four cycles of 3-weekly pemetrexed and platinum were delivered in the combined neoadjuvant and adjuvant setting. A response assessment was carried out using RECIST criteria. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 114 patients, 96 evaluable patients received NACT with pemetrexed-platinum. The most common indication for NACT was N2 disease at baseline (46.8%). The objective response rate was 36.4% (95% confidence interval 22-52%), including two complete and 32 partial responses, whereas 12.5% of patients had progressive disease on NACT. The median PFS was 14 months (95% confidence interval 10.7-17.3) and the median overall survival was 22 months (95% confidence interval 15.6-28.4) at a median follow-up of 16 months. There was a significant improvement in the overall survival of patients undergoing definitive therapy versus no definitive therapy (median overall survival 25 months [95% confidence interval 19.6-30.4] versus 12 months [95% confidence interval 3.2-20.7], respectively; P = 0.015, hazard ratio 0.56 [95% confidence interval 0.3-0.9]). Among patients who could not undergo definitive chemoradiation upfront due to dosimetric constraints (n = 34), 24 (70.6%) patients finally underwent definitive therapy after NACT. Pemetrexed-platinum-based NACT seems to be an effective option and many borderline cases, where upfront definitive therapy is not feasible, may become amenable to the same after incorporation of NACT. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PREDICT: a diagnostic accuracy study of a tool for predicting mortality within one year: who should have an advance healthcare directive?

PubMed

Richardson, Philip; Greenslade, Jaimi; Shanmugathasan, Sulochana; Doucet, Katherine; Widdicombe, Neil; Chu, Kevin; Brown, Anthony

2015-01-01

CARING is a screening tool developed to identify patients who have a high likelihood of death in 1 year. This study sought to validate a modified CARING tool (termed PREDICT) using a population of patients presenting to the Emergency Department. In total, 1000 patients aged over 55 years who were admitted to hospital via the Emergency Department between January and June 2009 were eligible for inclusion in this study. Data on the six prognostic indicators comprising PREDICT were obtained retrospectively from patient records. One-year mortality data were obtained from the State Death Registry. Weights were applied to each PREDICT criterion, and its final score ranged from 0 to 44. Receiver operator characteristic analyses and diagnostic accuracy statistics were used to assess the accuracy of PREDICT in identifying 1-year mortality. The sample comprised 976 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 71 years (62-81 years) and a 1-year mortality of 23.4%. In total, 50% had ≥1 PREDICT criteria with a 1-year mortality of 40.4%. Receiver operator characteristic analysis gave an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.89). Using a cut-off of 13 points, PREDICT had a 95.3% (95% confidence interval: 93.6-96.6) specificity and 53.9% (95% confidence interval: 47.5-60.3) sensitivity for predicting 1-year mortality. PREDICT was simpler than the CARING criteria and identified 158 patients per 1000 admitted who could benefit from advance care planning. PREDICT was successfully applied to the Australian healthcare system with findings similar to the original CARING study conducted in the United States. This tool could improve end-of-life care by identifying who should have advance care planning or an advance healthcare directive. © The Author(s) 2014.

Modest Associations Between Electronic Health Record Use and Acute Myocardial Infarction Quality of Care and Outcomes: Results From the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

PubMed

Enriquez, Jonathan R; de Lemos, James A; Parikh, Shailja V; Simon, DaJuanicia N; Thomas, Laine E; Wang, Tracy Y; Chan, Paul S; Spertus, John A; Das, Sandeep R

2015-11-01

In 2009, national legislation promoted wide-spread adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) across US hospitals; however, the association of EHR use with quality of care and outcomes after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains unclear. Data on EHR use were collected from the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys (2007-2010) and data on AMI care and outcomes from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry Acute Coronary Treatment and Interventions Outcomes Network Registry-Get With The Guidelines. Comparisons were made between patients treated at hospitals with fully implemented EHR (n=43 527), partially implemented EHR (n=72 029), and no EHR (n=9270). Overall EHR use increased from 82.1% (183/223) hospitals in 2007 to 99.3% (275/277) hospitals in 2010. Patients treated at hospitals with fully implemented EHRs had fewer heparin overdosing errors (45.7% versus 72.8%; P<0.01) and a higher likelihood of guideline-recommended care (adjusted odds ratio, 1.40 [confidence interval, 1.07-1.84]) compared with patients treated at hospitals with no EHR. In non-ST-segment-elevation AMI, fully implemented EHR use was associated with lower risk of major bleeding (adjusted odds ratio, 0.78 [confidence interval, 0.67-0.91]) and mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.82 [confidence interval, 0.69-0.97]) compared with no EHR. In ST-segment-elevation MI, outcomes did not significantly differ by EHR status. EHR use has risen to high levels among hospitals in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry. EHR use was associated with less frequent heparin overdosing and modestly greater adherence to acute MI guideline-recommended therapies. In non-ST-segment-elevation MI, slightly lower adjusted risk of major bleeding and mortality were seen in hospitals implemented with full EHRs; however, in ST-segment-elevation MI, differences in outcomes were not seen. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Use of Breast Cancer Screening and Its Association with Later Use of Preventive Services among Medicare Beneficiaries.

PubMed

Kang, Stella K; Jiang, Miao; Duszak, Richard; Heller, Samantha L; Hughes, Danny R; Moy, Linda

2018-06-05

Purpose To retrospectively assess whether there is an association between screening mammography and the use of a variety of preventive services in women who are enrolled in Medicare. Materials and Methods U.S. Medicare claims from 2010 to 2014 Research Identifiable Files were reviewed to retrospectively identify a group of women who underwent screening mammography and a control group without screening mammography in 2012. The screened group was divided into positive versus negative results at screening, and the positive subgroup was divided into false-positive and true-positive findings. Multivariate logistic regression models and inverse probability of treatment weighting were used to examine the relationship between screening status and the probabilities of undergoing Papanicolaou test, bone mass measurement, or influenza vaccination in the following 2 years. Results The cohort consisted of 555 705 patients, of whom 185 625 (33.4%) underwent mammography. After adjusting for patient demographics, comorbidities, geographic covariates, and baseline preventive care, women who underwent index screening mammography (with either positive or negative results) were more likely than unscreened women to later undergo Papanicolaou test (odds ratio [OR], 1.49; 95% confidence interval: 1.40, 1.58), bone mass measurement (OR, 1.70; 95% confidence interval: 1.63, 1.78), and influenza vaccine (OR, 1.45; 95% confidence interval: 1.37, 1.53). In women who had not undergone these preventive measures in the 2 years before screening mammography, use of these three services after false-positive findings at screening was no different than after true-negative findings at screening. Conclusion In beneficiaries of U.S. Medicare, use of screening mammography was associated with higher likelihood of adherence to other preventive guidelines, without a negative association between false-positive results and cervical cancer screening. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Decision-Making Methods for Criterion-Referenced Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haladyna, Tom; Roid, Gale

The problems associated with misclassifying students when pass-fail decisions are based on test scores are discussed. One protection against misclassification is to set a confidence interval around the cutting score. Those whose scores fall above the interval are passed; those whose scores fall below the interval are failed; and those whose scores…

Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

On the Computation of the RMSEA and CFI from the Mean-And-Variance Corrected Test Statistic with Nonnormal Data in SEM.

PubMed

Savalei, Victoria

2018-01-01

A new type of nonnormality correction to the RMSEA has recently been developed, which has several advantages over existing corrections. In particular, the new correction adjusts the sample estimate of the RMSEA for the inflation due to nonnormality, while leaving its population value unchanged, so that established cutoff criteria can still be used to judge the degree of approximate fit. A confidence interval (CI) for the new robust RMSEA based on the mean-corrected ("Satorra-Bentler") test statistic has also been proposed. Follow up work has provided the same type of nonnormality correction for the CFI (Brosseau-Liard & Savalei, 2014). These developments have recently been implemented in lavaan. This note has three goals: a) to show how to compute the new robust RMSEA and CFI from the mean-and-variance corrected test statistic; b) to offer a new CI for the robust RMSEA based on the mean-and-variance corrected test statistic; and c) to caution that the logic of the new nonnormality corrections to RMSEA and CFI is most appropriate for the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, and cannot easily be generalized to the most commonly used categorical data estimators.

Diagnostic value of panoramic radiography in predicting inferior alveolar nerve injury after mandibular third molar extraction: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, W; Yin, W; Zhang, R; Li, J; Zheng, Y

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of panoramic radiography on inferior alveolar nerve (IAN) injury after extraction of the mandibular third molar. Relevant studies up to 1 June 2014 that discussed the association of panoramic radiography signs and post-mandibular third molar extraction IAN injury were systematically retrieved from the databases of PubMed, Embase, Springerlink, Web of Science and Cochrane library. The effect size of pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios (PLR), negative likelihood ratios (NLR) and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were statistically analysed with Meta-disc 1.4 software. Nine articles were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity were 0.56 (95% CI: 0.50-0.61) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.84-0.87), respectively. The overall PLR was 3.46 (95% CI: 2.02-5.92) and overall NLR was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.45-0.73). The pooled estimate of DOR was 6.49 (95% CI: 2.92-14.44). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.7143 ± 0.0604. The meta-analysis indicated that interpretation of panoramic radiography based on darkening of the root had a high specificity in predicting IAN injury after mandibular third molar extraction. However, the ability of this panoramic radiography marker to detect true positive IAN injury was not satisfactory. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

Exposure to Traffic-related Air Pollution During Pregnancy and Term Low Birth Weight: Estimation of Causal Associations in a Semiparametric Model

PubMed Central

Padula, Amy M.; Mortimer, Kathleen; Hubbard, Alan; Lurmann, Frederick; Jerrett, Michael; Tager, Ira B.

2012-01-01

Traffic-related air pollution is recognized as an important contributor to health problems. Epidemiologic analyses suggest that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollutants may be associated with adverse birth outcomes; however, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the relation is causal. The Study of Air Pollution, Genetics and Early Life Events comprises all births to women living in 4 counties in California's San Joaquin Valley during the years 2000–2006. The probability of low birth weight among full-term infants in the population was estimated using machine learning and targeted maximum likelihood estimation for each quartile of traffic exposure during pregnancy. If everyone lived near high-volume freeways (approximated as the fourth quartile of traffic density), the estimated probability of term low birth weight would be 2.27% (95% confidence interval: 2.16, 2.38) as compared with 2.02% (95% confidence interval: 1.90, 2.12) if everyone lived near smaller local roads (first quartile of traffic density). Assessment of potentially causal associations, in the absence of arbitrary model assumptions applied to the data, should result in relatively unbiased estimates. The current results support findings from previous studies that prenatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution may adversely affect birth weight among full-term infants. PMID:23045474

Effect of Intensive Versus Standard Clinic-Based Hypertension Management on Ambulatory Blood Pressure: Results From the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) Ambulatory Blood Pressure Study.

PubMed

Drawz, Paul E; Pajewski, Nicholas M; Bates, Jeffrey T; Bello, Natalie A; Cushman, William C; Dwyer, Jamie P; Fine, Lawrence J; Goff, David C; Haley, William E; Krousel-Wood, Marie; McWilliams, Andrew; Rifkin, Dena E; Slinin, Yelena; Taylor, Addison; Townsend, Raymond; Wall, Barry; Wright, Jackson T; Rahman, Mahboob

2017-01-01

The effect of clinic-based intensive hypertension treatment on ambulatory blood pressure (BP) is unknown. The goal of the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) ambulatory BP ancillary study was to evaluate the effect of intensive versus standard clinic-based BP targets on ambulatory BP. Ambulatory BP was obtained within 3 weeks of the 27-month study visit in 897 SPRINT participants. Intensive treatment resulted in lower clinic systolic BP (mean difference between groups=16.0 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 14.1-17.8 mm Hg), nighttime systolic BP (mean difference=9.6 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 7.7-11.5 mm Hg), daytime systolic BP (mean difference=12.3 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 10.6-13.9 mm Hg), and 24-hour systolic BP (mean difference=11.2 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 9.7-12.8 mm Hg). The night/day systolic BP ratio was similar between the intensive (0.92±0.09) and standard-treatment groups (0.91±0.09). There was considerable lack of agreement within participants between clinic systolic BP and daytime ambulatory systolic BP with wide limits of agreement on Bland-Altman plots. In conclusion, targeting a systolic BP of <120 mm Hg, when compared with <140 mm Hg, resulted in lower nighttime, daytime, and 24-hour systolic BP, but did not change the night/day systolic BP ratio. Ambulatory BP monitoring may be required to assess the effect of targeted hypertension therapy on out of office BP. Further studies are needed to assess whether targeting hypertension therapy based on ambulatory BP improves clinical outcomes. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01835249. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Provider perceptions concerning use of chest x-ray studies in adult blunt trauma assessments.

PubMed

Calderon, Georgina; Perez, Daniel; Fortman, Jonathan; Kea, Bory; Rodriguez, Robert M

2012-10-01

Although they infrequently lead to management changing diagnoses, chest x-rays (CXRs) are the most commonly ordered imaging study in blunt trauma evaluation. To determine: 1) the reasons physicians order chest X-ray studies (CXRs) in blunt trauma assessments; 2) what injuries they expect CXRs to reveal; and 3) whether physicians can accurately predict low likelihood of injury on CXR. At a Level I Trauma Center, we asked resident and attending physicians treating adult blunt trauma patients: 1) the primary reason(s) for getting CXRs; 2) what, if any, significant intrathoracic injuries (SITI) they expected CXRs to reveal; and 3) the likelihood of these injuries. An expert panel defined SITI as two or more rib fractures, sternal fracture, pulmonary contusion, pneumothorax, hemothorax, or aortic injury on official CXR readings. There were 484 patient encounters analyzed--65% of participating physicians were residents and 35% were attendings; 16 (3.3%) patients had SITI. The most common reasons for ordering CXRs were: "enough concern for significant injury" (62.9%) and belief that CXR is a "standard part of trauma work-up" (24.8%). Residents were more likely than attendings to cite "standard trauma work-up" (mean difference = 13.5%, p = 0.003). When physicians estimated a < 10% likelihood of SITI on CXR, 2.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-4.1%) of patients had SITI; when they predicted a 10-25% likelihood, 5.7% (95% CI 1.2-15.7%) had SITI; and when they predicted a > 25% likelihood, 9.1% (95% CI 3.0-20.0%) had SITI. Physicians order CXRs in blunt trauma patients because they expect to find injuries and believe that CXRs are part of a "standard" work-up. Providers commonly do not expect CXRs to reveal SITI. When providers estimated low likelihood of SITI, the rate of SITI was very low. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An Integrated Understanding of Confidence and User Calibration in Information Systems Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tang, Fengchun

2012-01-01

Dealing with uncertainty is a critical part of human decision-making and confidence reflects one's belief about the relative likelihood that various outcomes occur when making decision under uncertainty. Unfortunately, confidence often deviates from the actual quality of the decision, leading to under- or over-confidence. Calibration, the…

The effect of a collaborative pharmacist-hospital care transition program on the likelihood of 30-day readmission.

PubMed

Kirkham, Heather S; Clark, Bobby L; Paynter, Jacquelyn; Lewis, Geraint H; Duncan, Ian

2014-05-01

The effect of a collaborative pharmacist-hospital care transition program on the likelihood of 30-day readmission was evaluated. This retrospective cohort study was conducted in two acute care hospitals within the same hospital system in the southeastern United States. One hospital initiated a care transition program in January 2011; the other hospital did not have such a program. All patients who were discharged from either hospital to home from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2011, were included in the study. The two key program components included bedside delivery of postdischarge medications and follow-up telephone calls two to three days after discharge. The likelihood of readmission was assessed using multiple logistic regression. Over the 2-year study period, 19,659 unique patients had 26,781 qualifying index admissions, 2,523 of which resulted in a readmission within 30 days of discharge. After adjusting for various demographic and clinical characteristics, the usual care group (i.e., patients who did not participate in the program) had nearly twice the odds of readmission within 30 days (odds ratio [OR], 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-2.67), compared with the intervention group (i.e., program participants). For patients age 65 years or older, those in the usual care group had a sixfold increase in the odds of a 30-day readmission (OR, 6.05; 95% CI, 1.92-19.00) relative to those in the intervention group. A care transition program was associated with a lower likelihood of readmission and had a greater effect on older patients.

Acceptance of technology-based tools in a sample of Parkinson's patients.

PubMed

Duroseau, Nathalie; Abramson, Tobi; Pergament, Kathleen; Chan, Vivian; Govindavari, John Paul; Ciraco, Christina; Tegay, David; Krishnamachari, Bhuma

2017-03-01

Objectives Parkinson's disease is the second most common neurodegenerative movement disorder in the United States. Patients' opinions of technology-based tools for education and communication as related to Parkinson's disease are unclear with little documented research addressing the issue. The goal of this research was to investigate patient opinions about technology-based tools with a focus on differences between patients of different age groups. Methods A cross-sectional survey was used to assess views on using multiple different electronic methods for receiving instructions and communicating with healthcare providers in 109 Parkinson's disease patients. Results Approximately 28% (n = 28) of the subjects reported having unmet needs related to Parkinson's disease. Those 65 and over were less likely to believe that using technology to communicate with the healthcare center would result in themselves having a better understanding of their care (odds ratio = 0.36, 95% confidence interval: 0.14, 0.95). Those over 75 had a lower odds of being willing to use electronic methods (odds ratio = 0.33, 95% confidence interval: 0.14, 0.79), a lower odds of believing that technology would result in better self-understanding of medical needs (odds ratio = 0.27, 95% confidence interval: 0.12, 0.63) and a lower odds of believing that technology would result in their healthcare providers better understanding their needs (odds ratio = 0.32, 95% confidence interval: 0.14, 0.73). Discussion The results of this study indicate that older Parkinson's disease patients report a less favorable view regarding the role of technology in communicating with healthcare providers and for understanding their care.

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism as a biomarker for susceptibility to bladder cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Hosen, Md Bayejid; Islam, Jahidul; Salam, Md Abdus; Islam, Md Fakhrul; Hawlader, M Zakir Hossain; Kabir, Yearul

2015-03-01

To investigate the association between the three most common single nucleotide polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene together with cigarette smoking and the risk of developing bladder cancer and its aggressiveness. A case-control study on 102 bladder cancer patients and 140 control subjects was conducted. The genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells and N-acetyltransferase 2 alleles were differentiated by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism methods. Bladder cancer risk was estimated as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval using binary logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender. Overall, N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were associated with bladder cancer risk (odds ratio=4.45; 95% confidence interval=2.26-8.77). The cigarette smokers with slow genotypes were found to have a sixfold increased risk to develop bladder cancer (odds ratio=6.05; 95% confidence interval=2.23-15.82). Patients with slow acetylating genotypes were more prone to develop high-grade (odds ratio=6.63; 95% confidence interval=1.15-38.13; P<0.05) and invasive (odds ratio=10.6; 95% confidence interval=1.00-111.5; P=0.05) tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype together with tobacco smoking increases bladder cancer risk. Patients with N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were more likely to develop a high-grade and invasive tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype is an important genetic determinant for bladder cancer in Bangladesh population. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence-Based Approach to the Analysis of Serious Decompression Sickness with Application to EVA Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conkin, Johnny

2001-01-01

It is important to understand the risk of serious hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) in order to develop procedures and treatment responses to mitigate the risk. Since it is not ethical to conduct prospective tests about serious DCS with humans, the necessary information was gathered from 73 published reports. We hypothesize that a 4-hr 100% oxygen (O2) prebreathe results in a very low risk of serious DCS, and test this through analysis. We evaluated 258 tests containing information from 79,366 exposures in attitude chambers. Serious DCS was documented in 918 men during the tests. Serious DCS are signs and symptoms broadly classified as Type II DCS. A risk function analysis with maximum likelihood optimization was performed to identify significant explanatory variables, and to create a predictive model for the probability of serious DCS [P(serious DCS)]. Useful variables were Tissue Ratio, the planned time spent at altitude (T(sub alt)), and whether or not repetitive exercise was performed at altitude. Tissue Ratio is P1N2/P2, where P1N2 is calculated nitrogen (N2) pressure in a compartment with a 180-min half-time for N2 pressure just before ascent, and P2 is ambient pressure after ascent. A prebreathe and decompression profile Shuttle astronauts use for extravehicular activity (EVA) includes a 4-hr prebreathe with 100% O2, an ascent to P2 = 4.3 lb per sq. in. absolute, and a T(sub alt) = 6 hr. The P(serious DCS) is: 0.0014 (0.00096 - 0.00196, 95% confidence interval) with exercise and 0.00025 (0.00016 - 0.00035) without exercise. Given 100 Shuttle EVAs to date and no report of serious DCS, the true risk is less than 0.03 with 95% confidence (Binomial Theorem). It is problematic to estimate the risk of serious DCS since it appears infrequently, even if the estimate is based on thousands of altitude chamber exposures. The true risk to astronauts may lie between the extremes of the confidence intervals (0.00016 - 0.00196) since the contribution of other factors, particularly exercise, to the risk of serious DCS during EVA is unknown. A simple model that only accounts for four important variables in retrospective data is still helpful to increase our understanding about the risk of serious DCS.

Cure rate model with interval censored data.

PubMed

Kim, Yang-Jin; Jhun, Myoungshic

2008-01-15

In cancer trials, a significant fraction of patients can be cured, that is, the disease is completely eliminated, so that it never recurs. In general, treatments are developed to both increase the patients' chances of being cured and prolong the survival time among non-cured patients. A cure rate model represents a combination of cure fraction and survival model, and can be applied to many clinical studies over several types of cancer. In this article, the cure rate model is considered in the interval censored data composed of two time points, which include the event time of interest. Interval censored data commonly occur in the studies of diseases that often progress without symptoms, requiring clinical evaluation for detection (Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. Wiley: New York, 1998; 2090-2095). In our study, an approximate likelihood approach suggested by Goetghebeur and Ryan (Biometrics 2000; 56:1139-1144) is used to derive the likelihood in interval censored data. In addition, a frailty model is introduced to characterize the association between the cure fraction and survival model. In particular, the positive association between the cure fraction and the survival time is incorporated by imposing a common normal frailty effect. The EM algorithm is used to estimate parameters and a multiple imputation based on the profile likelihood is adopted for variance estimation. The approach is applied to the smoking cessation study in which the event of interest is a smoking relapse and several covariates including an intensive care treatment are evaluated to be effective for both the occurrence of relapse and the non-smoking duration. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A unified procedure for meta-analytic evaluation of surrogate end points in randomized clinical trials

PubMed Central

Dai, James Y.; Hughes, James P.

2012-01-01

The meta-analytic approach to evaluating surrogate end points assesses the predictiveness of treatment effect on the surrogate toward treatment effect on the clinical end point based on multiple clinical trials. Definition and estimation of the correlation of treatment effects were developed in linear mixed models and later extended to binary or failure time outcomes on a case-by-case basis. In a general regression setting that covers nonnormal outcomes, we discuss in this paper several metrics that are useful in the meta-analytic evaluation of surrogacy. We propose a unified 3-step procedure to assess these metrics in settings with binary end points, time-to-event outcomes, or repeated measures. First, the joint distribution of estimated treatment effects is ascertained by an estimating equation approach; second, the restricted maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the means and the variance components of the random treatment effects; finally, confidence intervals are constructed by a parametric bootstrap procedure. The proposed method is evaluated by simulations and applications to 2 clinical trials. PMID:22394448

Diagnosing pulmonary embolisms: the clinician's point of view.

PubMed

Carrillo Alcaraz, A; Martínez, A López; Solano, F J Sotos

Pulmonary thromboembolism is common and potentially severe. To ensure the correct approach to the diagnostic workup of pulmonary thromboembolism, it is essential to know the basic concepts governing the use of the different tests available. The diagnostic approach to pulmonary thromboembolism is an example of the application of the conditional probabilities of Bayes' theorem in daily practice. To interpret the available diagnostic tests correctly, it is necessary to analyze different concepts that are fundamental for decision making. Thus, it is necessary to know what the likelihood ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and decision thresholds mean. Whether to determine the D-dimer concentration or to do CT angiography or other imaging tests depends on their capacity to modify the pretest probability of having the disease to a posttest probability that is higher or lower than the thresholds for action. This review aims to clarify the diagnostic sequence of thromboembolic pulmonary disease, analyzing the main diagnostic tools (clinical examination, laboratory tests, and imaging tests), placing special emphasis on the principles that govern evidence-based medicine. Copyright © 2016 SERAM. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A Monte Carlo study of Weibull reliability analysis for space shuttle main engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abernethy, K.

1986-01-01

The incorporation of a number of additional capabilities into an existing Weibull analysis computer program and the results of Monte Carlo computer simulation study to evaluate the usefulness of the Weibull methods using samples with a very small number of failures and extensive censoring are discussed. Since the censoring mechanism inherent in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data is hard to analyze, it was decided to use a random censoring model, generating censoring times from a uniform probability distribution. Some of the statistical techniques and computer programs that are used in the SSME Weibull analysis are described. The methods documented in were supplemented by adding computer calculations of approximate (using iteractive methods) confidence intervals for several parameters of interest. These calculations are based on a likelihood ratio statistic which is asymptotically a chisquared statistic with one degree of freedom. The assumptions built into the computer simulations are described. The simulation program and the techniques used in it are described there also. Simulation results are tabulated for various combinations of Weibull shape parameters and the numbers of failures in the samples.

Importance of scientific resources among local public health practitioners.

PubMed

Fields, Robert P; Stamatakis, Katherine A; Duggan, Kathleen; Brownson, Ross C

2015-04-01

We examined the perceived importance of scientific resources for decision-making among local health department (LHD) practitioners in the United States. We used data from LHD practitioners (n = 849). Respondents ranked important decision-making resources, methods for learning about public health research, and academic journal use. We calculated descriptive statistics and used logistic regression to measure associations of individual and LHD characteristics with importance of scientific resources. Systematic reviews of scientific literature (24.7%) were most frequently ranked as important among scientific resources, followed by scientific reports (15.9%), general literature review articles (6.5%), and 1 or a few scientific studies (4.8%). Graduate-level education (adjusted odds ratios [AORs] = 1.7-3.5), larger LHD size (AORs = 2.0-3.5), and leadership support (AOR = 1.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.1, 2.3) were associated with a higher ranking of importance of scientific resources. Graduate training, larger LHD size, and leadership that supports a culture of evidence-based decision-making may increase the likelihood of practitioners viewing scientific resources as important. Targeting communication channels that practitioners view as important can also guide research dissemination strategies.

Self-reported and laboratory evaluation of late pregnancy nicotine exposure and drugs of abuse.

PubMed

Hall, E S; Wexelblatt, S L; Greenberg, J M

2016-10-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of late pregnancy nicotine exposures, including secondhand smoke exposures, and to evaluate the associated risk of exposure to drugs of abuse. The study was a retrospective single-center cohort analysis of more than 18 months. We compared self-reported smoking status from vital birth records with mass spectrometry laboratory results of maternal urine using a chi-square test. Logistic regression estimated adjusted odds for detection of drugs of abuse based on nicotine detection. Compared with 8.6% self-reporting cigarette use, mass spectrometry detected high-level nicotine exposures for 16.5% of 708 women (P<0.001) and an additional 7.5% with low-level exposures. We identified an increased likelihood of exposure to drugs of abuse, presented as adjusted odds ratios, (95% confidence interval (CI), for both low-level (5.69, CI: 2.09 to 15.46) and high-level (13.93, CI: 7.06 to 27.49) nicotine exposures. Improved measurement tactics are critically needed to capture late pregnancy primary and passive nicotine exposures from all potential sources.

Self-assessed mental health problems and work capacity as determinants of return to work: a prospective general population-based study of individuals with all-cause sickness absence

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Mental health problems are common in the work force and influence work capacity and sickness absence. The aim was to examine self-assessed mental health problems and work capacity as determinants of time until return to work (RTW). Methods Employed women and men (n=6140), aged 19–64 years, registered as sick with all-cause sickness absence between February 18 and April 15, 2008 received a self-administered questionnaire covering health and work situation (response rate 54%). Demographic data was collected from official registers. This follow-up study included 2502 individuals. Of these, 1082 were currently off sick when answering the questionnaire. Register data on total number of benefit compensated sick-leave days in the end of 2008 were used to determine the time until RTW. Self-reported persistent mental illness, the WHO (Ten) Mental Well-Being Index and self-assessed work capacity in relation to knowledge, mental, collaborative and physical demands at work were used as determinants. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the likelihood of RTW. Results The likelihood of RTW (≥105 days) was higher among those with persistent mental illness OR= 2.97 (95% CI, 2.10-4.20) and those with low mental well-being OR= 2.89 (95% CI, 2.31-3.62) after adjusting for gender, age, SES, hours worked and sick leave 2007. An analysis of employees who were off sick when they answered the questionnaire, the likelihood of RTW (≥105 days) was higher among those who reported low capacity to work in relation to knowledge, mental, collaborative and physical demands at work. In a multivariable analysis, the likelihood of RTW (≥105 days) among those with low mental well-being remained significant OR=1.93 (95% CI 1.46-2.55) even after adjustment for all dimensions of capacity to work. Conclusion Self-assessed persistent mental illness, low mental well-being and low work capacity increased the likelihood of prolonged RTW. This study is unique because it is based on new sick-leave spells and is the first to show that low mental well-being was a strong determinant of RTW even after adjustment for work capacity. Our findings support the importance of identifying individuals with low mental well-being as a way to promote RTW. PMID:24124982

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Maternal Dietary Patterns and Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in a Multi-Ethnic Asian Cohort: The GUSTO Study.

PubMed

de Seymour, Jamie; Chia, Airu; Colega, Marjorelee; Jones, Beatrix; McKenzie, Elizabeth; Shirong, Cai; Godfrey, Keith; Kwek, Kenneth; Saw, Seang-Mei; Conlon, Cathryn; Chong, Yap-Seng; Baker, Philip; Chong, Mary F F

2016-09-20

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) is associated with an increased risk of perinatal morbidity and long term health issues for both the mother and offspring. Previous research has demonstrated associations between maternal diet and GDM development, but evidence in Asian populations is limited. The objective of our study was to examine the cross-sectional relationship between maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy and the risk of GDM in a multi-ethnic Asian cohort. Maternal diet was ascertained using 24-h dietary recalls from participants in the Growing up in Singapore towards healthy outcomes (GUSTO) study-a prospective mother-offspring cohort, and GDM was diagnosed according to 1999 World Health Organisation guidelines. Dietary patterns were identified using factor analysis, and multivariate regression analyses performed to assess the association with GDM. Of 909 participants, 17.6% were diagnosed with GDM. Three dietary patterns were identified: a vegetable-fruit-rice-based-diet, a seafood-noodle-based-diet and a pasta-cheese-processed-meat-diet. After adjusting for confounding variables, the seafood-noodle-based-diet was associated with a lower likelihood of GDM (Odds Ratio (95% Confidence Interval)) = 0.74 (0.59, 0.93). The dietary pattern found to be associated with GDM in our study was substantially different to those reported previously in Western populations.

Effects of Centralizing Acute Stroke Services on Stroke Care Provision in Two Large Metropolitan Areas in England

PubMed Central

Morris, Stephen; Hoffman, Alex; Hunter, Rachael M.; Boaden, Ruth; McKevitt, Christopher; Perry, Catherine; Pursani, Nanik; Rudd, Anthony G.; Turner, Simon J.; Tyrrell, Pippa J.; Wolfe, Charles D.A.; Fulop, Naomi J.

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose— In 2010, Greater Manchester and London centralized acute stroke care into hyperacute units (Greater Manchester=3, London=8), with additional units providing ongoing specialist stroke care nearer patients’ homes. Greater Manchester patients presenting within 4 hours of symptom onset were eligible for hyperacute unit admission; all London patients were eligible. Research indicates that postcentralization, only London’s stroke mortality fell significantly more than elsewhere in England. This article attempts to explain this difference by analyzing how centralization affects provision of evidence-based clinical interventions. Methods— Controlled before and after analysis was conducted, using national audit data covering Greater Manchester, London, and a noncentralized urban comparator (38 623 adult stroke patients, April 2008 to December 2012). Likelihood of receiving all interventions measured reliably in pre- and postcentralization audits (brain scan; stroke unit admission; receiving antiplatelet; physiotherapist, nutrition, and swallow assessments) was calculated, adjusting for age, sex, stroke-type, consciousness, and whether stroke occurred in-hospital. Results— Postcentralization, likelihood of receiving interventions increased in all areas. London patients were overall significantly more likely to receive interventions, for example, brain scan within 3 hours: Greater Manchester=65.2% (95% confidence interval=64.3–66.2); London=72.1% (71.4–72.8); comparator=55.5% (54.8–56.3). Hyperacute units were significantly more likely to provide interventions, but fewer Greater Manchester patients were admitted to these (Greater Manchester=39%; London=93%). Differences resulted from contrasting hyperacute unit referral criteria and how reliably they were followed. Conclusions— Centralized systems admitting all stroke patients to hyperacute units, as in London, are significantly more likely to provide evidence-based clinical interventions. This may help explain previous research showing better outcomes associated with fully centralized models. PMID:26130092

A machine learning approach using EEG data to predict response to SSRI treatment for major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Khodayari-Rostamabad, Ahmad; Reilly, James P; Hasey, Gary M; de Bruin, Hubert; Maccrimmon, Duncan J

2013-10-01

The problem of identifying, in advance, the most effective treatment agent for various psychiatric conditions remains an elusive goal. To address this challenge, we investigate the performance of the proposed machine learning (ML) methodology (based on the pre-treatment electroencephalogram (EEG)) for prediction of response to treatment with a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) medication in subjects suffering from major depressive disorder (MDD). A relatively small number of most discriminating features are selected from a large group of candidate features extracted from the subject's pre-treatment EEG, using a machine learning procedure for feature selection. The selected features are fed into a classifier, which was realized as a mixture of factor analysis (MFA) model, whose output is the predicted response in the form of a likelihood value. This likelihood indicates the extent to which the subject belongs to the responder vs. non-responder classes. The overall method was evaluated using a "leave-n-out" randomized permutation cross-validation procedure. A list of discriminating EEG biomarkers (features) was found. The specificity of the proposed method is 80.9% while sensitivity is 94.9%, for an overall prediction accuracy of 87.9%. There is a 98.76% confidence that the estimated prediction rate is within the interval [75%, 100%]. These results indicate that the proposed ML method holds considerable promise in predicting the efficacy of SSRI antidepressant therapy for MDD, based on a simple and cost-effective pre-treatment EEG. The proposed approach offers the potential to improve the treatment of major depression and to reduce health care costs. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simple, validated vaginal birth after cesarean delivery prediction model for use at the time of admission.

PubMed

Metz, Torri D; Stoddard, Gregory J; Henry, Erick; Jackson, Marc; Holmgren, Calla; Esplin, Sean

2013-09-01

To create a simple tool for predicting the likelihood of successful trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) during the pregnancy after a primary cesarean delivery using variables available at the time of admission. Data for all deliveries at 14 regional hospitals over an 8-year period were reviewed. Women with one cesarean delivery and one subsequent delivery were included. Variables associated with successful VBAC were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Points were assigned to these characteristics, with weighting based on the coefficients in the regression model to calculate an integer VBAC score. The VBAC score was correlated with TOLAC success rate and was externally validated in an independent cohort using a logistic regression model. A total of 5,445 women met inclusion criteria. Of those women, 1,170 (21.5%) underwent TOLAC. Of the women who underwent trial of labor, 938 (80%) had a successful VBAC. A VBAC score was generated based on the Bishop score (cervical examination) at the time of admission, with points added for history of vaginal birth, age younger than 35 years, absence of recurrent indication, and body mass index less than 30. Women with a VBAC score less than 10 had a likelihood of TOLAC success less than 50%. Women with a VBAC score more than 16 had a TOLAC success rate more than 85%. The model performed well in an independent cohort with an area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.76-0.84). Prediction of TOLAC success at the time of admission is highly dependent on the initial cervical examination. This simple VBAC score can be utilized when counseling women considering TOLAC. II.

A meta-analysis of confocal laser endomicroscopy for the detection of neoplasia in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

PubMed

Xiong, Yi-Quan; Ma, Shu-Juan; Zhou, Jun-Hua; Zhong, Xue-Shan; Chen, Qing

2016-06-01

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is considered the most important risk factor for development of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Confocal laser endomicroscopy (CLE) is a recently developed technique used to diagnose neoplasia in BE. This meta-analysis was performed to assess the accuracy of CLE for diagnosis of neoplasia in BE. We searched EMBASE, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science to identify relevant studies for all articles published up to June 27, 2015 in English. The quality of included studies was assessed using QUADAS-2. Per-patient and per-lesion pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. In total, 14 studies were included in the final analysis, covering 789 patients with 4047 lesions. Seven studies were included in the per-patient analysis. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were 89% (95% CI: 0.82-0.94) and 83% (95% CI: 0.78-0.86), respectively. Ten studies were included in the per-lesion analysis. Compared with the PP analysis, the corresponding pooled sensitivity declined to 77% (95% CI: 0.73-0.81) and specificity increased to 89% (95% CI: 0.87-0.90). Subgroup analysis showed that probe-based CLE (pCLE) was superior to endoscope-based CLE (eCLE) in pooled specificity [91.4% (95% CI: 89.7-92.9) vs 86.1% (95% CI: 84.3-87.8)] and AUC for the sROC (0.885 vs 0.762). Confocal laser endomicroscopy is a valid method to accurately differentiate neoplasms from non-neoplasms in BE. It can be applied to BE surveillance and early diagnosis of esophageal adenocarcinoma. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Social and school connectedness in early secondary school as predictors of late teenage substance use, mental health, and academic outcomes.

PubMed

Bond, Lyndal; Butler, Helen; Thomas, Lyndal; Carlin, John; Glover, Sara; Bowes, Glenn; Patton, George

2007-04-01

To examine associations between social relationships and school engagement in early secondary school and mental health, substance use, and educational achievement 2-4 years later. School-based longitudinal study of secondary school students, surveyed at school in Year 8 (13-14-years-old) and Year 10 (16-years-old), and 1-year post-secondary school. A total of 2678 Year 8 students (74%) participated in the first wave of data collection. For the school-based surveys, attrition was <10%. Seventy-one percent of the participating Year 8 students completed the post-secondary school survey. Having both good school and social connectedness in Year 8 was associated with the best outcomes in later years. In contrast, participants with low school connectedness but good social connectedness were at elevated risk of anxiety/depressive symptoms (odds ratio [OR]: 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0, 1.76), regular smoking (OR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.4, 2.9), drinking (OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.2), and using marijuana (OR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.5) in later years. The likelihood of completing school was reduced for those with either poor social connectedness, low school connectedness, or both. Overall, young people's experiences of early secondary school and their relationships with others may continue to affect their moods, their substance use in later years, and their likelihood of completing secondary school. Having both good school connectedness and good social connectedness is associated with the best outcomes. The challenge is how to promote both school and social connectedness to best achieve these health and learning outcomes.

How well do commonly used data presentation formats support comparative effectiveness evaluations?

PubMed

Dolan, James G; Qian, Feng; Veazie, Peter J

2012-01-01

Good decisions depend on an accurate understanding of the comparative effectiveness of decision alternatives. The best way to convey data needed to support these comparisons is unknown. To determine how well 5 commonly used data presentation formats convey comparative effectiveness information. The study was an Internet survey using a factorial design. Participants consisted of 279 members of an online survey panel. Study participants compared outcomes associated with 3 hypothetical screening test options relative to 5 possible outcomes with probabilities ranging from 2 per 5000 (0.04%) to 500 per 1000 (50%). Data presentation formats included a table, a "magnified" bar chart, a risk scale, a frequency diagram, and an icon array. Outcomes included the number of correct ordinal judgments regarding the more likely of 2 outcomes, the ratio of perceived versus actual relative likelihoods of the paired outcomes, the intersubject consistency of responses, and perceived clarity. The mean number of correct ordinal judgments was 12 of 15 (80%), with no differences among data formats. On average, there was a 3.3-fold difference between perceived and actual likelihood ratios (95% confidence interval = 3.0-3.6). Comparative judgments based on flowcharts, icon arrays, and tables were all significantly more accurate and consistent than those based on risk scales and bar charts (P < 0.001). The most clearly perceived formats were the table and the flowchart. Low subjective numeracy was associated with less accurate and more variable data interpretations and lower perceived clarity for icon displays, bar charts, and flow diagrams. None of the data presentation formats studied can reliably provide patients, especially those with low subjective numeracy, with an accurate understanding of comparative effectiveness information.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

Emotional Confidants in Ethnic Communities: Social Network Analysis of Korean American Older Adults

PubMed Central

Jang, Yuri; Kim, Kyungmin; Park, Nan Sook; Chiriboga, David A.

2017-01-01

Objective Ethnic communities often serve as the primary source of emotional support for older immigrants. This study aims to identify individuals who are more likely to be nominated as emotional confidants by age peers in the ethnic community and to examine factors contributing to the likelihood of being a more frequently endorsed confidant. Method Data were drawn from a survey with 675 older Korean Americans. Using the name-generator approach in Social Network Analysis (SNA), participants were asked to list the names of three emotional confidants among age peers in the community. Results A higher level of popularity (i.e., in-degree centrality) was predicted by male gender, advanced education, lower functional disability, fewer symptoms of depression, and higher levels of participation in social activities. Discussion: Our findings suggest the value of SNA as a means of identifying the key emotional confidants in the community and utilizing them in community-based interventions. PMID:26082133

Test Accuracy of Informant-Based Cognitive Screening Tests for Diagnosis of Dementia and Multidomain Cognitive Impairment in Stroke.

PubMed

McGovern, Aine; Pendlebury, Sarah T; Mishra, Nishant K; Fan, Yuhua; Quinn, Terence J

2016-02-01

Poststroke cognitive assessment can be performed using standardized questionnaires designed for family or care givers. We sought to describe the test accuracy of such informant-based assessments for diagnosis of dementia/multidomain cognitive impairment in stroke. We performed a systematic review using a sensitive search strategy across multidisciplinary electronic databases. We created summary test accuracy metrics and described reporting and quality using STARDdem and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) tools, respectively. From 1432 titles, we included 11 studies. Ten papers used the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Four studies described IQCODE for diagnosis of poststroke dementia (n=1197); summary sensitivity: 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.93); summary specificty: 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.93). Five studies described IQCODE as tool for predicting future dementia (n=837); summary sensitivity: 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.83); summary specificity: 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.00). All papers had issues with at least 1 aspect of study reporting or quality. There is a limited literature on informant cognitive assessments in stroke. IQCODE as a diagnostic tool has test properties similar to other screening tools, IQCODE as a prognostic tool is specific but insensitive. We found no papers describing test accuracy of informant tests for diagnosis of prestroke cognitive decline, few papers on poststroke dementia and all included papers had issues with potential bias. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Knowledge level of effect size statistics, confidence intervals and meta-analysis in Spanish academic psychologists.

PubMed

Badenes-Ribera, Laura; Frias-Navarro, Dolores; Pascual-Soler, Marcos; Monterde-I-Bort, Héctor

2016-11-01

The statistical reform movement and the American Psychological Association (APA) defend the use of estimators of the effect size and its confidence intervals, as well as the interpretation of the clinical significance of the findings. A survey was conducted in which academic psychologists were asked about their behavior in designing and carrying out their studies. The sample was composed of 472 participants (45.8% men). The mean number of years as a university professor was 13.56 years (SD= 9.27). The use of effect-size estimators is becoming generalized, as well as the consideration of meta-analytic studies. However, several inadequate practices still persist. A traditional model of methodological behavior based on statistical significance tests is maintained, based on the predominance of Cohen’s d and the unadjusted R2/η2, which are not immune to outliers or departure from normality and the violations of statistical assumptions, and the under-reporting of confidence intervals of effect-size statistics. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving statistical practice.

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The effect of prenatal methamphetamine exposure on attention as assessed by continuous performance tests: results from the Infant Development, Environment, and Lifestyle study.

PubMed

Kiblawi, Zeina N; Smith, Lynne M; LaGasse, Linda L; Derauf, Chris; Newman, Elana; Shah, Rizwan; Arria, Amelia; Huestis, Marilyn; DellaGrotta, Sheri; Dansereau, Lynne M; Neal, Charles; Lester, Barry

2013-01-01

To assess for the increased risk of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in young children with prenatal methamphetamine exposure from the multicenter, longitudinal Infant Development, Environment, and Lifestyle (IDEAL) study. The IDEAL study enrolled 412 mother-infant pairs at 4 sites (Tulsa, OK; Des Moines, IA; Los Angeles, CA; and Honolulu, HI). Methamphetamine-exposed subjects (n = 204) were identified by self-report and/or gas chromatography/mass spectrometry confirmation of amphetamine and metabolites in infant meconium. Matched subjects (n = 208) denied methamphetamine use and had a negative meconium screen. This analysis included a subsample of 301 subjects who were administered the Conners' Kiddie Continuous Performance Test (K-CPT) at 5.5 years of age (153 exposed and 148 comparison). Hierarchical linear models adjusted for covariates tested exposure effects on K-CPT measures. Using the same covariates, logistic regression was used to determine the effect of exposure on the incidence of a positive ADHD confidence index score, defined as greater than 50%. There were no differences between the groups in omission or commission errors or reaction time for correct trials. However, methamphetamine exposure was associated with subtle differences in other outcomes predictive of ADHD, including increased slope of reaction time across blocks (p < .001), increased variability in reaction time with longer interstimulus intervals (p < .01), and increased likelihood of greater than 50% on the ADHD confidence index (odds ratio, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-7.8; p = .02). Prenatal methamphetamine exposure was associated with subtle differences in K-CPT scores at 5.5 years of age. Even at this relatively young age, these children exhibit indicators of risk for ADHD and warrant monitoring.

Fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT volume-based indices in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer: prediction of residual viable tumor after induction chemotherapy.

PubMed

Soussan, Michael; Cyrta, Joanna; Pouliquen, Christelle; Chouahnia, Kader; Orlhac, Fanny; Martinod, Emmanuel; Eder, Véronique; Morère, Jean-François; Buvat, Irène

2014-09-01

To study whether volume-based indices of fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomographic (PET)/computed tomographic (CT) imaging is an accurate tool to predict the amount of residual viable tumor after induction chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study was approved by institutional review board with waivers of informed consent. Twenty-two patients with locally advanced NSCLC underwent surgery after induction chemotherapy. All had pre- and posttreatment FDG PET/CT scans. CT largest diameter, CT volume, maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), mean SUV (SUVmean), metabolic tumor volume (TV), and total lesion glycolysis of primary tumor were calculated. Changes in tumor measurements were determined by dividing follow-up by baseline measurement (ratio index). Amounts of residual viable tumor, necrosis, fibrous tissue, inflammatory infiltrate, and Ki-67 proliferative index were estimated on resected tumor. Correlations between imaging indices and histologic parameters were estimated by using Spearman correlation coefficients or Mann-Whitney tests. No baseline or posttreatment indices correlated with percentage of residual viable tumor. TV ratio was the only index that correlated with percentage of residual viable tumor (r = 0.61 [95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.81]; P = .003). Conversely, SUVmax and SUVmean ratios were only indices correlated with Ki-67 (r = 0.62 [95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.82]; P = .003; and r = 0.60 [95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.81]; P = .004, respectively). Total lesion glycolysis ratio was moderately correlated with residual viable tumor (r = 0.53 [95% confidence interval: 0.13, 0.78]; P = .01) and with Ki-67 (r = 0.57 [95% confidence interval: 0.18, 0.80]; P = .006). No ratios were correlated with presence of inflammatory infiltrate or foamy macrophages. TV and total lesion glycolysis ratios were the only indices correlated with residual viable tumor after induction chemotherapy in locally advanced NSCLC.

Association of urinary calcium excretion with serum calcium and vitamin D levels.

PubMed

Rathod, Anita; Bonny, Olivier; Guessous, Idris; Suter, Paolo M; Conen, David; Erne, Paul; Binet, Isabelle; Gabutti, Luca; Gallino, Augusto; Muggli, Franco; Hayoz, Daniel; Péchère-Bertschi, Antoinette; Paccaud, Fred; Burnier, Michel; Bochud, Murielle

2015-03-06

Population-based data on urinary calcium excretion are scarce. The association of serum calcium and circulating levels of vitamin D [25(OH)D2 or D3] with urinary calcium excretion in men and women from a population-based study was explored. Multivariable linear regression was used to explore factors associated with square root-transformed 24-hour urinary calcium excretion (milligrams per 24 hours) taken as the dependent variable with a focus on month-specific vitamin D tertiles and serum calcium in the Swiss Survey on Salt Study. In total, 624 men and 669 women were studied with mean ages of 49.2 and 47.0 years, respectively (age range=15-95 years). Mean urinary calcium excretion was higher in men than in women (183.05 versus 144.60 mg/24 h; P<0.001). In adjusted models, the association (95% confidence interval) of square root urinary calcium excretion with protein-corrected serum calcium was 1.78 (95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 2.34) mg/24 h per milligram per deciliter in women and 0.59 (95% confidence interval, -0.11 to 1.29) mg/24 h per milligram per deciliter in men. Men in the third 25(OH)D3 tertile had higher square root urinary calcium excretion than men in the first tertile (0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 1.63 mg/24 h per nanogram per milliliter), and the corresponding association was 0.32 (95% confidence interval, -0.22 to 0.85) mg/24 h per nanogram per milliliter in women. These sex differences were more marked under conditions of high urinary sodium or urea excretions. There was a positive association of serum calcium with urinary calcium excretion in women but not men. Vitamin 25(OH)D3 was associated with urinary calcium excretion in men but not women. These results suggest important sex differences in the hormonal and dietary control of urinary calcium excretion. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Adapting the Healthy Eating Index 2010 for the Canadian Population: Evidence from the Canadian Community Health Survey

PubMed Central

Ng, Alena Praneet; L’Abbé, Mary R.

2017-01-01

The Healthy Eating Index (HEI) is a diet quality index shown to be associated with reduced chronic disease risk. Older versions of the HEI have been adapted for Canadian populations; however, no Canadian modification of the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010) has been made. The aims of this study were: (a) to develop a Canadian adaptation of the HEI-2010 (i.e., Healthy Eating Index-Canada 2010 (HEI-C 2010)) by adapting the recommendations of the HEI-2010 to Canada’s Food Guide (CFG) 2007; (b) to evaluate the validity and reliability of the HEI-C 2010; and (c) to examine relationships between HEI-C 2010 scores with diet quality and the likelihood of being obese. Data from 12,805 participants (≥18 years) were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey Cycle 2.2. Weighted multivariate logistic regression was used to test the association between compliance to the HEI-C 2010 recommendations and the likelihood of being obese, adjusting for errors in self-reported dietary data. The total mean error-corrected HEI-C 2010 score was 50.85 ± 0.35 out of 100. Principal component analysis confirmed multidimensionality of the HEI-C 2010, while Cronbach’s α = 0.78 demonstrated internal reliability. Participants in the fourth quartile of the HEI-C 2010 with the healthiest diets were less likely to consume refined grains and empty calories and more likely to consume beneficial nutrients and foods (p-trend < 0.0001). Lower adherence to the index recommendations was inversely associated with the likelihood of being obese; this association strengthened after correction for measurement error (Odds Ratio: 1.41; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.17–1.71). Closer adherence to Canada’s Food Guide 2007 assessed through the HEI-C 2010 was associated with improved diet quality and reductions in the likelihood of obesity when energy intake and measurement errors were taken into account. Consideration of energy requirements and energy density in future updates of Canada’s Food Guide are important and necessary to ensure broader application and usability of dietary quality indexes developed based on this national nutrition guideline. PMID:28825674

Adapting the Healthy Eating Index 2010 for the Canadian Population: Evidence from the Canadian National Nutrition Survey.

PubMed

Jessri, Mahsa; Ng, Alena Praneet; L'Abbé, Mary R

2017-08-21

The Healthy Eating Index (HEI) is a diet quality index shown to be associated with reduced chronic disease risk. Older versions of the HEI have been adapted for Canadian populations; however, no Canadian modification of the Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010) has been made. The aims of this study were: (a) to develop a Canadian adaptation of the HEI-2010 (i.e., Healthy Eating Index-Canada 2010 (HEI-C 2010)) by adapting the recommendations of the HEI-2010 to Canada's Food Guide (CFG) 2007; (b) to evaluate the validity and reliability of the HEI-C 2010; and (c) to examine relationships between HEI-C 2010 scores with diet quality and the likelihood of being obese. Data from 12,805 participants (≥18 years) were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey Cycle 2.2. Weighted multivariate logistic regression was used to test the association between compliance to the HEI-C 2010 recommendations and the likelihood of being obese, adjusting for errors in self-reported dietary data. The total mean error-corrected HEI-C 2010 score was 50.85 ± 0.35 out of 100. Principal component analysis confirmed multidimensionality of the HEI-C 2010, while Cronbach's α = 0.78 demonstrated internal reliability. Participants in the fourth quartile of the HEI-C 2010 with the healthiest diets were less likely to consume refined grains and empty calories and more likely to consume beneficial nutrients and foods ( p -trend < 0.0001). Lower adherence to the index recommendations was inversely associated with the likelihood of being obese; this association strengthened after correction for measurement error (Odds Ratio: 1.41; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.17-1.71). Closer adherence to Canada's Food Guide 2007 assessed through the HEI-C 2010 was associated with improved diet quality and reductions in the likelihood of obesity when energy intake and measurement errors were taken into account. Consideration of energy requirements and energy density in future updates of Canada's Food Guide are important and necessary to ensure broader application and usability of dietary quality indexes developed based on this national nutrition guideline.

Risk Indicators for Periodontitis in US Adults: NHANES 2009 to 2012.

PubMed

Eke, Paul I; Wei, Liang; Thornton-Evans, Gina O; Borrell, Luisa N; Borgnakke, Wenche S; Dye, Bruce; Genco, Robert J

2016-10-01

Through the use of optimal surveillance measures and standard case definitions, it is now possible to more accurately determine population-average risk profiles for severe (SP) and non-severe periodontitis (NSP) in adults (aged 30 years and older) in the United States. Data from the 2009 to 2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, which, for the first time, used the "gold standard" full-mouth periodontitis surveillance protocol to classify severity of periodontitis following suggested Centers for Disease Control/American Academy of Periodontology case definitions. Probabilities of periodontitis by: 1) sociodemographics, 2) behavioral factors, and 3) comorbid conditions were assessed using prevalence ratios (PRs) estimated by predicted marginal probability from multivariable generalized logistic regression models. Analyses were further stratified by sex for each classification of periodontitis. Likelihood of total periodontitis (TP) increased with age for overall and NSP relative to non-periodontitis. Compared with non-Hispanic whites, TP was more likely in Hispanics (adjusted [a]PR = 1.38; 95% confidence interval 95% CI: 1.26 to 1.52) and non-Hispanic blacks (aPR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.50), whereas SP was most likely in non-Hispanic blacks (aPR = 1.82; 95% CI: 1.44 to 2.31). There was at least a 50% greater likelihood of TP in current smokers compared with non-smokers. In males, likelihood of TP in adults aged 65 years and older was greater (aPR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.76 to 2.43) than adults aged 30 to 44 years. This probability was even greater in women (aPR = 3.15; 95% CI: 2.63 to 3.77). Likelihood of TP was higher in current smokers relative to non-smokers regardless of sex and periodontitis classification. TP was more likely in men with uncontrolled diabetes mellitus (DM) compared with adults without DM. Assessment of risk profiles for periodontitis in adults in the United States based on gold standard periodontal measures show important differences by severity of disease and sex. Cigarette smoking, specifically current smoking, remains an important modifiable risk for all levels of periodontitis severity. Higher likelihood of TP in older adults and in males with uncontrolled DM is noteworthy. These findings could improve identification of target populations for effective public health interventions to improve periodontal health of adults in the United States.

Gender inequities, relationship power, and childhood immunization uptake in Nigeria: a population-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Antai, Diddy

2012-02-01

This study aimed to simultaneously examine the association between multiple dimensions of gender inequities and full childhood immunization. A multilevel logistic regression analysis was performed on nationally representative sample data from the 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, which included 33,385 women aged 15-49 years who had a total of 28,647 live-born children; 24,910 of these children were included in this study. A total of 4283 (17%) children had received full immunization. Children of women whose spouse did not contribute to household earnings had a higher likelihood of receiving full childhood immunization (odds ratio (OR) 1.96, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.02-3.77), and children of women who lacked decision-making autonomy had a lower likelihood of receiving full childhood immunization (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.60-0.91). The likelihood of receiving full childhood immunization was higher among female children (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.54), Yoruba children (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.19-4.26), and children resident in communities with low illiteracy (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.06-3.12), but lower for children of birth order 5 or above (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.45-0.96), children of women aged ≤ 24 years (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50-0.87) and 25-34 years (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-0.99), children of women with no education (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.21-0.54) and primary education (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.45-0.97), as well as children of women resident in communities with high unemployment (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.20-0.57). The woman being the sole provider for her family (i.e., having a spouse who did not contribute to household earnings) was associated with a higher likelihood of fully immunizing the child, and the woman lacking decision-making autonomy was associated with a lower likelihood of fully immunizing the child. These findings draw attention to the need for interventions aimed at promoting women's employment and earning possibilities, whilst changing gender-discriminatory attitudes within relationships, communities, and society in general. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neonatal Infection in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smilga, Anne-Sophie; Garfinkle, Jarred; Ng, Pamela; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to explore the association between neonatal infection and outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Canadian CP Registry. Neonatal infection was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: (1) septicemia, (2) septic shock, or (3) administration of antibiotics for ≥10 days. Phenotypic profiles of children with cerebral palsy with and without an antecedent neonatal infection were compared. Subgroup analysis was performed, stratified by gestational age (term versus preterm). Of the 1229 registry participants, 505 (41.1%) were preterm, and 192 (15.6%) met the criteria for neonatal infection with 29% of preterm children having a neonatal infection compared with 6.5% in term-born children. Children with prior neonatal infection were more likely to have a white matter injury (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.2), spastic diplegic neurological subtype (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.3), and sensorineural auditory impairment (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.3). Among preterm children, neonatal infection was not associated with a difference in phenotypic profile. Term-born children with neonatal infection were more likely to have spastic triplegia or quadriplegia (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.3), concomitant white matter and cortical injury (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 10.3), and more severe gross motor ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV to V) (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8) compared with preterm children. Findings suggest a role of systemic infection on the developing brain in term-born infants, and the possibility to develop targeted therapeutic and preventive strategies to reduce cerebral palsy morbidity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Suicide in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sugawara, Akitomo; Kunieda, Etsuo

2016-09-01

We conducted this study to examine the rate of suicide in patients with gastric cancer and to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The database was queried for patients who were diagnosed with gastric cancer from 1998 to 2011. The rate of suicide and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide. A total of 65 535 patients with 109 597 person-years of follow-up were included. A total of 68 patients died of suicide. The age-adjusted rate of suicide was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years (standardized mortality ratios, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.18-5.13). The rate of suicide was highest within the first 3 months after cancer diagnosis (standardized mortality ratios, 67.67; 95% confidence interval, 40.74-106.15). Results of multivariable analyses showed that male sex (incidence rate ratio, 7.15; 95% confidence interval, 3.05-16.78; P < 0.0001), White race (incidence rate ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-10.35; P = 0.0491), unmarried status (incidence rate ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.30; P = 0.0060) and distant stage disease (incidence rate ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-4.92; P < 0.0001) were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. Patients with gastric cancer have an ~4-fold higher risk of suicide compared with the general US population. The suicide risk is highest within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Male sex, White race, unmarried status and distant stage disease are significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prescription of Zolpidem and the Risk of Fatal Motor Vehicle Collisions: A Population-Based, Case-Crossover Study from South Korea.

PubMed

Yang, Bo Ram; Kim, Ye-Jee; Kim, Mi-Sook; Jung, Sun-Young; Choi, Nam-Kyong; Hwang, Byungkwan; Park, Byung-Joo; Lee, Joongyub

2018-05-23

Zolpidem is one of the most frequently used hypnotics worldwide, but associations with serious adverse effects such as motor vehicle collisions have been reported. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of fatal motor vehicle collisions with a prescription for zolpidem, considering the context of the motor vehicle collisions. We conducted a case-crossover study, where each case served as its own control, by linking data about fatal motor vehicle collisions from the Korean Road Traffic Authority between 2010 and 2014 with national health insurance data. The case period was defined as 1 day before the fatal motor vehicle collisions, and was matched to four control periods at 90-day intervals. Conditional logistic regression was performed to calculate the odds ratio for fatal motor vehicle collisions associated with zolpidem exposure, and odds ratios were adjusted for time-varying exposure to confounding medications. A stratified analysis was performed by age group (younger than 65 years or not), the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and whether patients were new zolpidem users. Among the 714 subjects, the adjusted odds ratio for a fatal motor vehicle collision associated with a prescription for zolpidem the previous day was 1.48 (95% confidence interval 1.06-2.07). After stratification, a significantly increased risk was observed in subjects with a high Charlson Comorbidity Index (odds ratio 1.81; 95% confidence interval 1.16-2.84), the younger age group (odds ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence interval 1.03-2.56), and new zolpidem users (odds ratio 2.37; 95% confidence interval 1.40-4.00). A prescription for zolpidem on the previous day was significantly related to an increased risk of fatal motor vehicle collisions in this population-based case-crossover study.

Associations between maternal periconceptional exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and major birth defects.

PubMed

Hoyt, Adrienne T; Canfield, Mark A; Romitti, Paul A; Botto, Lorenzo D; Anderka, Marlene T; Krikov, Sergey V; Tarpey, Morgan K; Feldkamp, Marcia L

2016-11-01

While associations between secondhand smoke and a few birth defects (namely, oral clefts and neural tube defects) have been noted in the scientific literature, to our knowledge, there is no single or comprehensive source of population-based information on its associations with a range of birth defects among nonsmoking mothers. We utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a large population-based multisite case-control study, to examine associations between maternal reports of periconceptional exposure to secondhand smoke in the household or workplace/school and major birth defects. The multisite National Birth Defects Prevention Study is the largest case-control study of birth defects to date in the United States. We selected cases from birth defect groups having >100 total cases, as well as all nonmalformed controls (10,200), from delivery years 1997 through 2009; 44 birth defects were examined. After excluding cases and controls from multiple births and whose mothers reported active smoking or pregestational diabetes, we analyzed data on periconceptional secondhand smoke exposure-encompassing the period 1 month prior to conception through the first trimester. For the birth defect craniosynostosis, we additionally examined the effect of exposure in the second and third trimesters as well due to the potential sensitivity to teratogens for this defect throughout pregnancy. Covariates included in all final models of birth defects with ≥5 exposed mothers were study site, previous live births, time between estimated date of delivery and interview date, maternal age at estimated date of delivery, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, nativity, household income divided by number of people supported by this income, periconceptional alcohol consumption, and folic acid supplementation. For each birth defect examined, we used logistic regression analyses to estimate both crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for both isolated and total case groups for various sources of exposure (household only; workplace/school only; household and workplace/school; household or workplace/school). The prevalence of secondhand smoke exposure only across all sources ranged from 12.9-27.8% for cases and 14.5-15.8% for controls. The adjusted odds ratios for any vs no secondhand smoke exposure in the household or workplace/school and isolated birth defects were significantly elevated for neural tube defects (anencephaly: adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.25; and spina bifida: adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.86); orofacial clefts (cleft lip without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.81; cleft lip with or without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.46; cleft palate alone: adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.63); bilateral renal agenesis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.75); amniotic band syndrome-limb body wall complex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.51); and atrial septal defects, secundum (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.72). There were no significant inverse associations observed. Additional studies replicating the findings are needed to better understand the moderate positive associations observed between periconceptional secondhand smoke and several birth defects in this analysis. Increased odds ratios resulting from chance (eg, multiple comparisons) or recall bias cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0.204)], respectively. Income elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.098 [95% confidence interval (0.018, 0.178)], 0.136 [95% confidence interval (0.028, 0.245)] and 0.521 [95% confidence interval (0.438, 0.605)], respectively. The aforementioned results are in 2008, which hold similar pattern as results in 2003 as well as results from pooled data of two periods. First, no significant difference is detected between sensitivity of outpatient services and sensitivity of inpatient services, responding to own-price change. Second, inpatient services are substitutes to outpatient services. Third, the growth of inpatient services is faster than the growth in outpatient services in response to income growth. The major findings from this paper suggest refining insurance policy in rural China. First, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, changing outpatient price is at least as effective as changing inpatient price to adjust demand of health care. Second, the current national guideline of healthcare reform to increase the reimbursement rate for inpatient services will crowd out outpatient services; however, we have no evidence about the change in demand for inpatient service if insurance covers outpatient services. Third, a referral system and gate-keeping system should be established to guide rural patients to utilize outpatient service. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An approach for sample size determination of average bioequivalence based on interval estimation.

PubMed

Chiang, Chieh; Hsiao, Chin-Fu

2017-03-30

In 1992, the US Food and Drug Administration declared that two drugs demonstrate average bioequivalence (ABE) if the log-transformed mean difference of pharmacokinetic responses lies in (-0.223, 0.223). The most widely used approach for assessing ABE is the two one-sided tests procedure. More specifically, ABE is concluded when a 100(1 - 2α) % confidence interval for mean difference falls within (-0.223, 0.223). As known, bioequivalent studies are usually conducted by crossover design. However, in the case that the half-life of a drug is long, a parallel design for the bioequivalent study may be preferred. In this study, a two-sided interval estimation - such as Satterthwaite's, Cochran-Cox's, or Howe's approximations - is used for assessing parallel ABE. We show that the asymptotic joint distribution of the lower and upper confidence limits is bivariate normal, and thus the sample size can be calculated based on the asymptotic power so that the confidence interval falls within (-0.223, 0.223). Simulation studies also show that the proposed method achieves sufficient empirical power. A real example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparison of Probability Of Detection (POD) data determined using different statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahr, A.; Forsyth, D.; Bullock, M.

1993-12-01

Different statistical methods have been suggested for determining probability of detection (POD) data for nondestructive inspection (NDI) techniques. A comparative assessment of various methods of determining POD was conducted using results of three NDI methods obtained by inspecting actual aircraft engine compressor disks which contained service induced cracks. The study found that the POD and 95 percent confidence curves as a function of crack size as well as the 90/95 percent crack length vary depending on the statistical method used and the type of data. The distribution function as well as the parameter estimation procedure used for determining POD and the confidence bound must be included when referencing information such as the 90/95 percent crack length. The POD curves and confidence bounds determined using the range interval method are very dependent on information that is not from the inspection data. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) method does not require such information and the POD results are more reasonable. The log-logistic function appears to model POD of hit/miss data relatively well and is easy to implement. The log-normal distribution using MLE provides more realistic POD results and is the preferred method. Although it is more complicated and slower to calculate, it can be implemented on a common spreadsheet program.

Determining the Number of Ischemic Strokes Potentially Eligible for Endovascular Thrombectomy: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Chia, Nicholas H; Leyden, James M; Newbury, Jonathan; Jannes, Jim; Kleinig, Timothy J

2016-05-01

Endovascular thrombectomy (ET) is standard-of-care for ischemic stroke patients with large vessel occlusion, but estimates of potentially eligible patients from population-based studies have not been published. Such data are urgently needed to rationally plan hyperacute services. Retrospective analysis determined the incidence of ET-eligible ischemic strokes in a comprehensive population-based stroke study (Adelaide, Australia 2009-2010). Stroke patients were stratified via a prespecified eligibility algorithm derived from recent ET trials comprising stroke subtype, pathogenesis, severity, premorbid modified Rankin Score, presentation delay, large vessel occlusion, and target mismatch penumbra. Recognizing centers may interpret recent ET trials either loosely or rigidly; 2 eligibility algorithms were applied: restrictive (key criteria modified Rankin Scale score 0-1, presentation delay <3.5 hours, and target mismatch penumbra) and permissive (modified Rankin Scale score 0-3 and presentation delay <5 hours). In a population of 148 027 people, 318 strokes occurred in the 1-year study period (crude attack rate 215 [192-240] per 100 000 person-years). The number of ischemic strokes eligible by restrictive criteria was 17/258 (7%; 95% confidence intervals 4%-10%) and by permissive criteria, an additional 16 were identified, total 33/258 (13%; 95% confidence intervals 9%-18%). Two of 17 patients (and 6/33 permissive patients) had thrombolysis contraindications. Using the restrictive algorithm, there were 11 (95% confidence intervals 4-18) potential ET cases per 100 000 person-years or 22 (95% confidence intervals 13-31) using the permissive algorithm. In this cohort, ≈7% of ischemic strokes were potentially eligible for ET (13% with permissive criteria). In similar populations, the permissive criteria predict that ≤22 strokes per 100 000 person-years may be eligible for ET. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Association between gestational weight gain and perinatal outcomes in women with chronic hypertension.

PubMed

Yee, Lynn M; Caughey, Aaron B; Cheng, Yvonne W

2017-09-01

Gestational weight gain above or below the 2009 National Academy of Medicine guidelines has been associated with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Although it has been well established that excess gestational weight gain is associated with the development of gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, the relationship between gestational weight gain and adverse perinatal outcomes among women with pregestational (chronic) hypertension is less clear. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between gestational weight gain above and below National Academy of Medicine guidelines and perinatal outcomes in a large, population-based cohort of women with chronic hypertension. This is a population-based retrospective cohort study of women with chronic hypertension who had term, singleton, vertex births in the United States from 2012 through 2014. Prepregnancy body mass index was calculated using self-reported prepregnancy weight and height. Women were categorized into 4 groups based on gestational weight gain and prepregnancy body mass index: (1) weight gain less than, (2) weight gain within, (3) weight gain 1-19 lb in excess of, and (4) weight gain ≥20 lb in excess of the National Academy of Medicine guidelines. The χ 2 tests and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used for statistical comparisons. Stratified analyses by body mass index category were additionally performed. In this large birth cohort, 101,259 women met criteria for inclusion. Compared to hypertensive women who had gestational weight gain within guidelines, hypertensive women with weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines were more likely to have eclampsia (adjusted odds ratio, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.54-2.42) and cesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.50-1.70). Excess weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines was also associated with increased odds of 5-minute Apgar <7 (adjusted odds ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.47), neonatal intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.33), and large-for-gestational-age neonates (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 2.27-2.56) as well as decreased odds of small-for-gestational-age status (adjusted odds ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.58). Weight gain 1-19 lb over guidelines was associated with similar fetal growth outcomes although with a smaller effect size. In contrast, weight gain less than National Academy of Medicine guidelines was not associated with adverse maternal outcomes but was associated with increased odds of small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.52) and decreased odds of large-for-gestational-age status (adjusted odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.92). Analysis of maternal and neonatal outcomes stratified by body mass index demonstrated similar findings. Women with chronic hypertension who gain less weight than National Academy of Medicine guidelines experience increased odds of small-for-gestational-age neonates, whereas excess weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines is associated with cesarean delivery, eclampsia, 5-minute Apgar <7, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and large-for-gestational-age neonates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

Religious hospital policies on reproductive care: what do patients want to know?

PubMed

Freedman, Lori R; Hebert, Luciana E; Battistelli, Molly F; Stulberg, Debra B

2018-02-01

Religious hospitals are a large and growing part of the American healthcare system. Patients who receive obstetric and other reproductive care in religious hospitals may face religiously-based restrictions on the treatment their doctor can provide. Little is known about patients' knowledge or preferences regarding religiously restricted reproductive healthcare. We aimed to assess women's preferences for knowing a hospital's religion and religiously based restrictions before deciding where to seek care and the acceptability of a hospital denying miscarriage treatment options for religious reasons, with and without informing the patient that other options may be available. We conducted a national survey of women aged 18-45 years. The sample was recruited from AmeriSpeak, a probability-based research panel of civilian noninstitutionalized adults. Of 2857 women invited to participate, 1430 completed surveys online or over the phone, for a survey response rate of 50.1%. All analyses adjusted for the complex sampling design and were weighted to generate estimates representative of the population of US adult reproductive-age women. We used χ 2 tests and multivariable logistic regression to evaluate associations. One third of women aged 18-45 years (34.5%) believe it is somewhat or very important to know a hospital's religion when deciding where to get care, but 80.7% feel it is somewhat or very important to know about a hospital's religious restrictions on care. Being Catholic or attending religious services more frequently does not make one more or less likely to want this information. Compared with Protestant women who do not identify as born-again, women of other religious backgrounds are more likely to consider it important to know a hospital's religious affiliation. These include religious minority women (adjusted odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-4.27), those who reported no religion/atheist/agnostic (adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-4.34), and born-again Protestants (adjusted odds ratio, 2.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-4.28). Religious minority women (adjusted odds ratio, 2.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-5.51) and those who reported no religion/atheist/agnostic (adjusted odds ratio, 3.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.42-7.04) were more likely to want to know a hospital's restrictions on care. More than two thirds of women find it unacceptable for the hospital to restrict information and treatment options during miscarriage based on religion. Women who attended weekly religious services were significantly more likely to accept such restrictions (adjusted odds ratio, 3.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-5.76) and to consider transfer to another site an acceptable solution (adjusted odds ratio, 3.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-6.12). The question, "When should a religious hospital be allowed to restrict care based on religion?" was asked, and 52.3% responded never; 16.6%, always; and 31.1%,"under some conditions. The vast majority of adult American women of reproductive age want information about a hospital's religious restrictions on care when deciding where to go for obstetrics/gynecology care. Growth in the US Catholic health care sector suggests an increasing need for transparency about these restrictions so that women can make informed decisions and, when needed, seek alternative providers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does This Older Adult With Lower Extremity Pain Have the Clinical Syndrome of Lumbar Spinal Stenosis?

PubMed Central

Suri, Pradeep; Rainville, James; Kalichman, Leonid; Katz, Jeffrey N.

2012-01-01

Context The clinical syndrome of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) is a common diagnosis in older adults presenting with lower extremity pain. Objective To systematically review the accuracy of the clinical examination for the diagnosis of the clinical syndrome of LSS. Data Sources MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL searches of articles published from January 1966 to September 2010. Study Selection Studies were included if they contained adequate data on the accuracy of the history and physical examination for diagnosing the clinical syndrome of LSS, using a reference standard of expert opinion with radiographic or anatomic confirmation. Data Extraction Two authors independently reviewed each study to determine eligibility, extract data, and appraise levels of evidence. Data Synthesis Four studies evaluating 741 patients were identified. Among patients with lower extremity pain, the likelihood of the clinical syndrome of LSS was increased for individuals older than 70 years (likelihood ratio [LR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6–2.5), and was decreased for those younger than 60 years (LR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.29–0.57). The most useful symptoms for increasing the likelihood of the clinical syndrome of LSS were having no pain when seated (LR, 7.4; 95% CI, 1.9–30), improvement of symptoms when bending forward (LR, 6.4; 95% CI, 4.1–9.9), the presence of bilateral buttock or leg pain (LR, 6.3; 95% CI, 3.1–13), and neurogenic claudication (LR, 3.7; 95% CI, 2.9–4.8). Absence of neurogenic claudication (LR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.17–0.31) decreased the likelihood of the diagnosis. A wide-based gait (LR, 13; 95% CI, 1.9–95) and abnormal Romberg test result (LR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.4–13) increased the likelihood of the clinical syndrome of LSS. A score of 7 or higher on a diagnostic support tool including history and examination findings increased the likelihood of the clinical syndrome of LSS (LR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.7–4.0), while a score lower than 7 made the diagnosis much less likely (LR, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.06–0.16). Conclusions The diagnosis of the clinical syndrome of LSS requires the appropriate clinical picture and radiographic findings. Absence of pain when seated and improvement of symptoms when bending forward are the most useful individual findings. Combinations of findings are most useful for identifying patients who are unlikely to have the diagnosis. PMID:21156951

Reproductive and Birth Outcomes in Haiti Before and After the 2010 Earthquake.

PubMed

Harville, Emily W; Do, Mai

2016-02-01

We aimed to examine the relationship between exposure to the 2010 Haiti earthquake and pregnancy wantedness, interpregnancy interval, and birth weight. From the nationally representative Haiti 2012 Demographic and Health Survey, information on "size of child at birth" (too small or not) was available for 7280 singleton births in the previous 5 years, whereas information on birth weight was available for 1607 births. Pregnancy wantedness, short (<1 year) interpregnancy interval, and maternal-reported birth weight were compared before and after the earthquake and by level of damage. Multiple logistic regression and linear regression analyses were conducted. Post-earthquake births were less likely to be wanted and more likely to be born after a short interpregnancy interval. Earthquake exposure was associated with increased likelihood of a child being born too small: timing of birth (after earthquake vs. before earthquake, adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.45), region (hardest-hit vs. rest of country; aOR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.14- 1.80), and house damage (aOR: 1.27 95% CI: 1.02-1.58). Mean birth weight was 150 to 300 g lower in those exposed to the earthquake. Experience with the earthquake was associated with worse reproductive and birth outcomes, which underscores the need to provide reproductive health services as part of relief efforts.

Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from post-mortem human subject tests under axial impacts

PubMed Central

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W.J.; Pintar, Frank A.; Szabo, Aniko

2015-01-01

Objective Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. Methods The study re-examined lower leg PMHS data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and non-injury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the co-variable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. Results The mean age, stature and weight: 58.2 ± 15.1 years, 1.74 ± 0.08 m and 74.9 ± 13.8 kg. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other two distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-old at five, 25 and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45 and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk; and 10.4, 8.3, and 6.6 kN at 50% risk, respectively. Conclusions This study derived axial loading-induced injury risk curves based on survival analysis using peak force and specimen age; adopting different censoring schemes; considering overly influential samples in the analysis; and assessing the quality of the distribution at discrete probability levels. Because procedures used in the present survival analysis are accepted by international automotive communities, current optimum human injury probability distributions can be used at all risk levels with more confidence in future crashworthiness applications for automotive and other disciplines. PMID:25307381

Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

2013-01-01

Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

Whole blood gene expression testing for coronary artery disease in nondiabetic patients: major adverse cardiovascular events and interventions in the PREDICT trial.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Steven; Elashoff, Michael R; Lieu, Hsiao D; Brown, Bradley O; Kraus, William E; Schwartz, Robert S; Voros, Szilard; Ellis, Stephen G; Waksman, Ron; McPherson, John A; Lansky, Alexandra J; Topol, Eric J

2012-06-01

The majority of first-time angiography patients are without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). A blood gene expression score (GES) for obstructive CAD likelihood was validated in the PREDICT study, but its relation to major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and revascularization was not assessed. Patients (N = 1,160) were followed up for MACE and revascularization 1 year post-index angiography and GES, with 1,116 completing follow-up. The 30-day event rate was 23% and a further 2.2% at 12 months. The GES was associated with MACE/revascularizations (p < 0.001) and added to clinical risk scores. Patients with GES >15 trended towards increased >30 days MACE/revascularization likelihood (odds ratio = 2.59, 95% confidence interval = 0.89-9.14, p = 0.082). MACE incidence overall was 1.5% (17 of 1,116) and 3 of 17 patients had GES ≤ 15. For the total low GES group (N = 396), negative predictive value was 90% for MACE/revascularization and >99% for MACE alone, identifying a group of patients without obstructive CAD and highly unlikely to suffer MACE within 12 months.

Point of Care Ultrasound Accurately Distinguishes Inflammatory from Noninflammatory Disease in Patients Presenting with Abdominal Pain and Diarrhea

PubMed Central

Novak, Kerri L.; Jacob, Deepti; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Boyce, Emma; Ghosh, Subrata; Ma, Irene; Lu, Cathy; Wilson, Stephanie; Panaccione, Remo

2016-01-01

Background. Approaches to distinguish inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) from noninflammatory disease that are noninvasive, accurate, and readily available are desirable. Such approaches may decrease time to diagnosis and better utilize limited endoscopic resources. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy for gastroenterologist performed point of care ultrasound (POCUS) in the detection of luminal inflammation relative to gold standard ileocolonoscopy. Methods. A prospective, single-center study was conducted on convenience sample of patients presenting with symptoms of diarrhea and/or abdominal pain. Patients were offered POCUS prior to having ileocolonoscopy. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), as well as likelihood ratios, were calculated. Results. Fifty-eight patients were included in this study. The overall sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 80%, 97.8%, 88.9%, and 95.7%, respectively, with positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR) of 36.8 and 0.20. Conclusion. POCUS can accurately be performed at the bedside to detect transmural inflammation of the intestine. This noninvasive approach may serve to expedite diagnosis, improve allocation of endoscopic resources, and facilitate initiation of appropriate medical therapy. PMID:27446838

Investigating pulmonary embolism in the emergency department with lower limb plethysmography: the Manchester Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (MIOPED) study

PubMed Central

Hogg, K; Dawson, D; Mackway‐Jones, K

2006-01-01

Objectives To measure the diagnostic accuracy of computerised strain gauge plethysmography in the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods Two researchers prospectively recruited 425 patients with pleuritic chest pain presenting to the emergency department (ED). Lower limb computerised strain gauge plethysmography was performed in the ED. All patients underwent an independent reference standard diagnostic algorithm to establish the presence or absence of PE. A low modified Wells' clinical probability combined with a normal D‐dimer excluded PE. All others required diagnostic imaging with PIOPED interpreted ventilation perfusion scanning and/or computerised tomography (CT) pulmonary angiography. Patients with a nondiagnostic CT had digital subtraction pulmonary angiography. All patients were followed up clinically for 3 months. Results The sensitivity of computerised strain gauge plethysmography was 33.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.3 to 56.2%) and specificity 64.1% (95% CI 59.0 to 68.8%). The negative likelihood ratio was 1.04 (95% CI 0.68 to 1.33) and positive likelihood ratio 0.93 (95% CI 0.45 to 1.60). Conclusions Lower limb computerised strain gauge plethysmography does not aid in the diagnosis of PE. PMID:16439734

Relationship between drug abuse and intimate partner violence: a longitudinal study among women receiving methadone.

PubMed

El-Bassel, Nabila; Gilbert, Louisa; Wu, Elwin; Go, Hyun; Hill, Jennifer

2005-03-01

We examined whether frequent drug use increases the likelihood of subsequent sexual or physical intimate partner violence (IPV) and whether IPV increases the likelihood of subsequent frequent drug use. A random sample of 416 women on methadone was assessed at baseline (wave 1) and at 6 months (wave 2), and 12 months (wave 3) following the initial assessment. Propensity score matching and multiple logistic regression were employed. Women who reported frequent crack use at wave 2 were more likely than non-drug using women to report IPV at wave 3 (odds ratio [OR]=4.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.1, 9.1; P<.01), and frequent marijuana users at wave 2 were more likely than non-drug users to report IPV at wave 3 (OR=4.5; 95% CI=2.4, 8.4; P<.01). In addition, women who reported IPV at wave 2 were more likely than women who did not report IPV to indicate frequent heroin use at wave 3 (OR=2.7; 95% CI=1.1, 6.5; P=.04). Our findings suggest that the relationship between frequent drug use and IPV is bidirectional and varies by type of drug.

Evaluation of prostate cancer antigen 3 for detecting prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Yong; Cao, Wenzhou; Li, Quan; Shen, Hua; Liu, Chao; Deng, Junpeng; Xu, Jiangfeng; Shao, Qiang

2016-05-01

Previous studies indicate that prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) is highly expressed in prostatic tumors. However, its clinical value has not been characterized. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical value of the urine PCA3 test in the diagnosis of prostate cancer by pooling the published data. Clinical trials utilizing the urine PCA3 test for diagnosing prostate cancer were retrieved from PubMed and Embase. A total of 46 clinical trials including 12,295 subjects were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (+LR), negative likelihood ratio (-LR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and area under the curve (AUC) were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63-0.66), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.72-0.74), 2.23 (95% CI: 1.91-2.62), 0.48 (95% CI: 0.44-0.52), 5.31 (95% CI: 4.19-6.73) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74-0.77), respectively. In conclusion, the urine PCA3 test has acceptable sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of prostate cancer and can be used as a non-invasive method for that purpose.

Residential Light and Risk for Depression and Falls: Results from the LARES Study of Eight European Cities

PubMed Central

Brown, Mary Jean; Jacobs, David E.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined the relationship between self-reported inadequate residential natural light and risk for depression or falls among adults aged 18 years or older. Methods. Generalized estimating equations were used to calculate the odds of depression or falls in participants with self-reported inadequate natural residential light vs. those reporting adequate light (n=6,017) using data from the World Health Organization's Large Analysis and Review of European Housing and Health Survey, a large cross-sectional study of housing and health in representative populations from eight European cities. Results. Participants reporting inadequate natural light in their dwellings were 1.4 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2,1.7) as likely to report depression and 1.5 times (95% CI 1.2, 1.9) as likely to report a fall compared with those satisfied with their dwelling's light. After adjustment for major confounders, the likelihood of depression changed slightly, while the likelihood of a fall increased to 2.5 (95% CI 1.5, 4.2). Conclusion. Self-reported inadequate light in housing is independently associated with depression and falls. Increasing light in housing, a relatively inexpensive intervention, may improve two distinct health conditions. PMID:21563721

Residential light and risk for depression and falls: results from the LARES study of eight European cities.

PubMed

Brown, Mary Jean; Jacobs, David E

2011-01-01

We examined the relationship between self-reported inadequate residential natural light and risk for depression or falls among adults aged 18 years or older. Generalized estimating equations were used to calculate the odds of depression or falls in participants with self-reported inadequate natural residential light vs. those reporting adequate light (n = 6,017) using data from the World Health Organization's Large Analysis and Review of European Housing and Health Survey, a large cross-sectional study of housing and health in representative populations from eight European cities. Participants reporting inadequate natural light in their dwellings were 1.4 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2,1.7) as likely to report depression and 1.5 times (95% CI 1.2, 1.9) as likely to report a fall compared with those satisfied with their dwelling's light. After adjustment for major confounders, the likelihood of depression changed slightly, while the likelihood of a fall increased to 2.5 (95% CI 1.5, 4.2). Self-reported inadequate light in housing is independently associated with depression and falls. Increasing light in housing, a relatively inexpensive intervention, may improve two distinct health conditions.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousins, R. D.

The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Promoting Evidence-Based Practice at a Primary Stroke Center: A Nurse Education Strategy.

PubMed

Case, Christina Anne

Promoting a culture of evidence-based practice within a health care facility is a priority for health care leaders and nursing professionals; however, tangible methods to promote translation of evidence to bedside practice are lacking. The purpose of this quality improvement project was to design and implement a nursing education intervention demonstrating to the bedside nurse how current evidence-based guidelines are used when creating standardized stroke order sets at a primary stroke center, thereby increasing confidence in the use of standardized order sets at the point of care and supporting evidence-based culture within the health care facility. This educational intervention took place at a 286-bed community hospital certified by the Joint Commission as a primary stroke center. Bedside registered nurse (RN) staff from 4 units received a poster presentation linking the American Heart Association's and American Stroke Association's current evidence-based clinical practice guidelines to standardized stroke order sets and bedside nursing care. The 90-second oral poster presentation was delivered by a graduate nursing student during preshift huddle. The poster and supplemental materials remained in the unit break room for 1 week for RN viewing. After the pilot unit, a pdf of the poster was also delivered via an e-mail attachment to all RNs on the participating unit. A preintervention online survey measured nurses' self-perceived likelihood of performing an ordered intervention based on whether they were confident the order was evidence based. The preintervention survey also measured nurses' self-reported confidence in their ability to explain how the standardized order sets are derived from current evidence. The postintervention online survey again measured nurses' self-reported confidence level. However, the postintervention survey was modified midway through data collection, allowing for the final 20 survey respondents to retrospectively rate their confidence before and after the educational intervention. This modification ensured that the responses for each individual participant in this group were matched. Registered nurses reported a significant increase in perceived confidence in ability to explain how standardized stroke order sets reflect current evidence after the intervention (n = 20, P < .001). This sample was matched for each individual respondent. No significant change was shown in unmatched group mean self-reported confidence ratings overall after the intervention or separately by unit for the progressive care unit, critical care unit, or intensive care unit (n = 89 preintervention, n = 43 postintervention). However, the emergency department demonstrated a significant increase in group mean perceived confidence scores (n = 20 preintervention, n = 11 postintervention, P = .020). Registered nurses reported a significantly higher self-perceived likelihood of performing an ordered nursing intervention when they were confident that the order was evidence based compared with if they were unsure the order was evidence based (n = 88, P < .001). This nurse education strategy increased RNs' confidence in ability to explain the path from evidence to bedside nursing care by demonstrating how evidence-based clinical practice guidelines provide current evidence used to create standardized order sets. Although further evaluation of the intervention's effectiveness is needed, this educational intervention has the potential for generalization to different types of standardized order sets to increase nurse confidence in utilization of evidence-based practice.

Physical activity and mortality: is the association explained by genetic selection?

PubMed

Carlsson, Sofia; Andersson, Tomas; Lichtenstein, Paul; Michaëlsson, Karl; Ahlbom, Anders

2007-08-01

Public health recommendations promote physical activity to improve health and longevity. Recent data suggest that the association between physical activity and mortality may be due to genetic selection. Using data on twins, the authors investigated whether genetic selection explains the association between physical activity and mortality. Data were based on a postal questionnaire answered by 13,109 Swedish twin pairs in 1972. The national Cause of Death Register was used for information about all-cause mortality (n=1,800) and cardiovascular disease mortality (n=638) during 1975-2004. The risk of death was reduced by 34% for men (relative risk=0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.83) and by 25% for women (relative risk=0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 1.14) reporting high physical activity levels. Within-pair comparisons of monozygotic twins showed that, compared with their less active co-twin, the more active twin had a 20% (odds ratio=0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.99) reduced risk of all-cause mortality and a 32% (odds ratio=0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.49, 0.95) reduced risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Results indicate that physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of mortality not due to genetic selection. This finding supports a causal link between physical activity and mortality.

Fatty liver index and hepatic steatosis index for prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Sviklāne, Laura; Olmane, Evija; Dzērve, Zane; Kupčs, Kārlis; Pīrāgs, Valdis; Sokolovska, Jeļizaveta

2018-01-01

Little is known about the diagnostic value of hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and fatty liver index (FLI), as well as their link to metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes mellitus. We have screened the effectiveness of FLI and HSI in an observational pilot study of 40 patients with type 1 diabetes. FLI and HSI were calculated for 201 patients with type 1 diabetes. Forty patients with FLI/HSI values corresponding to different risk of liver steatosis were invited for liver magnetic resonance study. In-phase/opposed-phase technique of magnetic resonance was used. Accuracy of indices was assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Twelve (30.0%) patients had liver steatosis. For FLI, sensitivity was 90%; specificity, 74%; positive likelihood ratio, 3.46; negative likelihood ratio, 0.14; positive predictive value, 0.64; and negative predictive value, 0.93. For HSI, sensitivity was 86%; specificity, 66%; positive likelihood ratio, 1.95; negative likelihood ratio, 0.21; positive predictive value, 0.50; and negative predictive value, 0.92. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for FLI was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [0.72; 0.99]); for HSI 0.75 [0.58; 0.91]. Liver fat correlated with liver enzymes, waist circumference, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein. FLI correlated with C-reactive protein, liver enzymes, and blood pressure. HSI correlated with waist circumference and C-reactive protein. FLI ≥ 60 and HSI ≥ 36 were significantly associated with metabolic syndrome and nephropathy. The tested indices, especially FLI, can serve as surrogate markers for liver fat content and metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Sociodemographic disparities in the occurrence of medical conditions among adolescent and young adult Hodgkin lymphoma survivors.

PubMed

Keegan, Theresa H M; Li, Qian; Steele, Amy; Alvarez, Elysia M; Brunson, Ann; Flowers, Christopher R; Glaser, Sally L; Wun, Ted

2018-06-01

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors experience high risks of second cancers and cardiovascular disease, but no studies have considered whether the occurrence of these and other medical conditions differ by sociodemographic factors in adolescent and young adult (AYA) survivors. Data for 5,085 patients aged 15-39 when diagnosed with HL during 1996-2012 and surviving ≥ 2 years were obtained from the California Cancer Registry and linked to hospitalization data. We examined the impact of race/ethnicity, neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES), and health insurance on the occurrence of medical conditions (≥ 2 years after diagnosis) and the impact of medical conditions on survival using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Twenty-six percent of AYAs experienced at least one medical condition and 15% had ≥ 2 medical conditions after treatment for HL. In multivariable analyses, Black HL survivors had a higher likelihood (vs. non-Hispanic Whites) of endocrine [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.78] and circulatory system diseases (HR = 1.58, CI 1.17-2.14); Hispanics had a higher likelihood of endocrine diseases [HR = 1.24 (1.04-1.48)]. AYAs with public or no insurance (vs. private/military) had higher likelihood of circulatory system diseases, respiratory system diseases, chronic kidney disease/renal failure, liver disease, and endocrine diseases. AYAs residing in low SES neighborhoods (vs. high) had higher likelihood of respiratory system and endocrine diseases. AYAs with these medical conditions or second cancers had an over twofold increased risk of death. Strategies to improve health care utilization for surveillance and secondary prevention among AYA HL survivors at increased risk of medical conditions may improve outcomes.

The diagnostic performance of perfusion MRI for differentiating glioma recurrence from pseudoprogression: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wan, Bing; Wang, Siqi; Tu, Mengqi; Wu, Bo; Han, Ping; Xu, Haibo

2017-03-01

The purpose of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a method for differentiating glioma recurrence from pseudoprogression. The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Chinese Biomedical databases were searched comprehensively for relevant studies up to August 3, 2016 according to specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. The quality of the included studies was assessed according to the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS-2). After performing heterogeneity and threshold effect tests, pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio were calculated. Publication bias was evaluated visually by a funnel plot and quantitatively using Deek funnel plot asymmetry test. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated to demonstrate the diagnostic performance of perfusion MRI. Eleven studies covering 416 patients and 418 lesions were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio were 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.92), 0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.84), 3.93 (95% CI 2.83-5.46), 0.16 (95% CI 0.11-0.22), and 27.17 (95% CI 14.96-49.35), respectively. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8899. There was no notable publication bias. Sensitivity analysis showed that the meta-analysis results were stable and credible. While perfusion MRI is not the ideal diagnostic method for differentiating glioma recurrence from pseudoprogression, it could improve diagnostic accuracy. Therefore, further research on combining perfusion MRI with other imaging modalities is warranted.

CT Pulmonary Angiography: Increasingly Diagnosing Less Severe Pulmonary Emboli

PubMed Central

Schissler, Andrew J.; Rozenshtein, Anna; Kulon, Michal E.; Pearson, Gregory D. N.; Green, Robert A.; Stetson, Peter D.; Brenner, David J.; D'Souza, Belinda; Tsai, Wei-Yann; Schluger, Neil W.; Einstein, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

Background It is unknown whether the observed increase in computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) utilization has resulted in increased detection of pulmonary emboli (PEs) with a less severe disease spectrum. Methods Trends in utilization, diagnostic yield, and disease severity were evaluated for 4,048 consecutive initial CTPAs performed in adult patients in the emergency department of a large urban academic medical center between 1/1/2004 and 10/31/2009. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) findings and peak serum troponin levels were evaluated to assess for the presence of PE-associated right ventricular (RV) abnormalities (dysfunction or dilatation) and myocardial injury, respectively. Statistical analyses were performed using multivariate logistic regression. Results 268 CTPAs (6.6%) were positive for acute PE, and 3,780 (93.4%) demonstrated either no PE or chronic PE. There was a significant increase in the likelihood of undergoing CTPA per year during the study period (odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–1.07, P<0.01). There was no significant change in the likelihood of having a CTPA diagnostic of an acute PE per year (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.95–1.11, P = 0.49). The likelihood of diagnosing a less severe PE on CTPA with no associated RV abnormalities or myocardial injury increased per year during the study period (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.10–1.75, P = 0.01). Conclusions CTPA utilization has risen with no corresponding change in diagnostic yield, resulting in an increase in PE detection. There is a concurrent rise in the likelihood of diagnosing a less clinically severe spectrum of PEs. PMID:23776522

Longer duration of homelessness is associated with a lower likelihood of non-detectable plasma HIV-1 RNA viral load among people who use illicit drugs in a Canadian setting.

PubMed

Loh, Jane; Kennedy, Mary Clare; Wood, Evan; Kerr, Thomas; Marshall, Brandon; Parashar, Surita; Montaner, Julio; Milloy, M-J

2016-11-01

Homelessness is common among people who use drugs (PWUD) and, for those living with HIV/AIDS, an important contributor to sub-optimal HIV treatment outcomes. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the duration of homelessness and the likelihood of plasma HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) non-detectability among a cohort of HIV-positive PWUD. We used data from the ACCESS study, a long-running prospective cohort study of HIV-positive PWUD linked to comprehensive HIV clinical records including systematic plasma HIV-1 RNA VL monitoring. We estimated the longitudinal relationship between the duration of homelessness and the likelihood of exhibiting a non-detectable VL (i.e., <500 copies/mL plasma) using generalized linear mixed-effects modelling. Between May 1996 and June 2014, 922 highly active antiretroviral therapy-exposed participants were recruited and contributed 8188 observations. Of these, 4800 (59%) were characterized by non-detectable VL. Participants reported they were homeless in 910 (11%) interviews (median: six months, interquartile range: 6-12 months). A longer duration of homelessness was associated with lower odds of VL non-detectability (adjusted odds ratio = 0.71 per six-month period of homelessness, 95% confidence interval: 0.60-0.83) after adjustment for age, ancestry, drug use patterns, engagement in addiction treatment, and other potential confounders. Longer durations of episodes of homelessness in this cohort of HIV-positive illicit drug users were associated with a lower likelihood of plasma VL non-detectability. Our findings suggest that interventions that seek to promptly house homeless individuals, such as Housing First approaches, might assist in maximizing the clinical and public health benefits of antiretroviral therapy among people living with HIV/AIDS.

Role of stress in low birthweight disparities between black and white women: a population-based study.

PubMed

Loggins Clay, Shondra; Andrade, Flavia Cristina Drumond

2015-04-01

This study examines the role of stress in low birthweight (LBW) risk in Black and White women in the United States. Data from the 1998-2000 Fragile Family and Child Wellbeing Study were used (n = 3869). We included several self-reported conditions which we categorised as stressors (i.e. socio-economic conditions, health behaviours, access to quality care and cultural factors), then we used logistic regression models to analyse the role of stressors in explaining the health disparities in LBW. Most women were unmarried (59% for White women and 87% for Black women). Among unmarried White women, the only stressor associated with a higher likelihood of LBW was smoking (odds ratio (OR) = 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.2, 3.3)). Among unmarried Black women, smoking (OR = 1.7, 95% CI (1.2, 2.3)), drug use (OR = 1.7, 95% CI (1.0, 2.6)), paying for the baby's birth with government resources (OR = 1.6, 95% CI (1.1, 2.4)) and religious affiliation (OR = 1.6, 95% CI (1.0, 2.5)) were associated with higher likelihood of LBW. Among married White women, older age (OR = 1.1, 95% CI (1.0, 1.2)), smoking (OR = 5.2, 95% CI (1.7, 15.5)), using governmental resources to pay for birth (OR = 3.6, 95% CI (1.0, 12.4)) and living in governmental housing (OR = 9.1, 95% CI (2.0, 41.1)) were associated with higher likelihood of LBW. No stressors were statistically significant for married Black women. We analysed a large number of stressors at the individual, household and societal levels and found differences on the stressors among Black and White women. However, the stressors included in the analyses did not fully explain the racial disparities in LBW. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2014 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

The influence of non-clinical patient factors on medical oncologists' decisions to recommend breast cancer adjuvant chemotherapy.

PubMed

Pini, T May; Hawley, Sarah T; Li, Yun; Katz, Steven J; Griggs, Jennifer J

2012-07-01

The extent to which medical oncologists consider non-clinical patient factors when deciding to recommend adjuvant chemotherapy is unknown. Medical oncologists who treated a population-based sample of early stage breast cancer patients reported to the Los Angeles and Detroit Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries 2005-2007 were asked how strongly they consider a patient's ability to follow instructions, level of social support, and level of work support/flexibility in decisions to recommend adjuvant chemotherapy. Responses of 4 (Quite strongly) or 5 (Very strongly) on a five-point Likert scale defined strong consideration. Associations between oncologist/practice characteristics and strong consideration of each non-clinical factor were examined. 134 oncologists (66 %) reported strong consideration of one or more factor. Ability to follow instructions was strongly considered by 120 oncologists (59 %), social support by 78 (38 %), and work support/flexibility by 73 (36 %). Larger percent of practice devoted to breast cancer was associated with lower likelihood of strongly considering ability to follow instructions [odds ratio (OR) 0.98, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.97-0.99; P = 0.04]. Increased years in practice was associated with lower likelihood of strongly considering social support (OR 0.96, CI 0.93-0.99; P = 0.011), while non-white race (OR 2.1, CI 1.03-4.26; P = 0.041) and tumor board access (OR 2.04, CI 1.01-4.12; P = 0.048) were associated with higher likelihood. Non-white race was associated with strongly considering work support/flexibility (OR 2.44, CI 1.21-4.92; P = 0.013). Tumor board access (OR 2, CI 1.00-4.02; P = 0.051) was borderline significant. Non-clinical patient factors play a role in medical oncologist decision-making for breast cancer adjuvant chemotherapy recommendations.

Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.

PubMed

Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng

2009-12-01

The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.

Two new methods to fit models for network meta-analysis with random inconsistency effects.

PubMed

Law, Martin; Jackson, Dan; Turner, Rebecca; Rhodes, Kirsty; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang

2016-07-28

Meta-analysis is a valuable tool for combining evidence from multiple studies. Network meta-analysis is becoming more widely used as a means to compare multiple treatments in the same analysis. However, a network meta-analysis may exhibit inconsistency, whereby the treatment effect estimates do not agree across all trial designs, even after taking between-study heterogeneity into account. We propose two new estimation methods for network meta-analysis models with random inconsistency effects. The model we consider is an extension of the conventional random-effects model for meta-analysis to the network meta-analysis setting and allows for potential inconsistency using random inconsistency effects. Our first new estimation method uses a Bayesian framework with empirically-based prior distributions for both the heterogeneity and the inconsistency variances. We fit the model using importance sampling and thereby avoid some of the difficulties that might be associated with using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, we confirm the accuracy of our importance sampling method by comparing the results to those obtained using MCMC as the gold standard. The second new estimation method we describe uses a likelihood-based approach, implemented in the metafor package, which can be used to obtain (restricted) maximum-likelihood estimates of the model parameters and profile likelihood confidence intervals of the variance components. We illustrate the application of the methods using two contrasting examples. The first uses all-cause mortality as an outcome, and shows little evidence of between-study heterogeneity or inconsistency. The second uses "ear discharge" as an outcome, and exhibits substantial between-study heterogeneity and inconsistency. Both new estimation methods give results similar to those obtained using MCMC. The extent of heterogeneity and inconsistency should be assessed and reported in any network meta-analysis. Our two new methods can be used to fit models for network meta-analysis with random inconsistency effects. They are easily implemented using the accompanying R code in the Additional file 1. Using these estimation methods, the extent of inconsistency can be assessed and reported.

Modeling the distribution of extreme share return in Malaysia using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Kassim, Suraiya

2012-05-01

Extreme share return in Malaysia is studied. The monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum returns are fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are performed to test for stationarity, while Mann-Kendall (MK) test is for the presence of monotonic trend. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the parameter while L-moments estimate (LMOM) is used to initialize the MLE optimization routine for the stationary model. Likelihood ratio test is performed to determine the best model. Sherman's goodness of fit test is used to assess the quality of convergence of the GEV distribution by these monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum. Returns levels are then estimated for prediction and planning purposes. The results show all maximum returns for all selection periods are stationary. The Mann-Kendall test indicates the existence of trend. Thus, we ought to model for non-stationary model too. Model 2, where the location parameter is increasing with time is the best for all selection intervals. Sherman's goodness of fit test shows that monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum converge to the GEV distribution. From the results, it seems reasonable to conclude that yearly maximum is better for the convergence to the GEV distribution especially if longer records are available. Return level estimates, which is the return level (in this study return amount) that is expected to be exceeded, an average, once every t time periods starts to appear in the confidence interval of T = 50 for quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum.

Clinical Prediction Rule for Declines in Activities of Daily Living at 6 Months After Surgery for Hip Fracture Repair.

PubMed

Tanaka, Ryo; Umehara, Takuya; Fujimura, Takafumi; Ozawa, Junya

2016-12-01

To develop and assess a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to predict declines in activities of daily living (ADL) at 6 months after surgery for hip fracture repair. Prospective, cohort study. From hospital to home. Patients (N=104) with hip fractures after surgery. Not applicable. ADL were assessed using the Barthel Index at 6 months after surgery. At 6 months after surgery, 86 patients (82.6%) were known to be alive, 1 patient (1.0%) had died, and 17 (16.3%) were lost to follow-up. Thirty-two patients (37.2%) did not recover their ADL at 6 months after surgery to levels before fracture. The classification and regression trees methodology was used to develop 2 models to predict a decline in ADL: (1) model 1 included age, type of fracture, and care level before fracture (sensitivity=75.0%, specificity=81.5%, positive predictive value=70.6%, positive likelihood ratio=4.050); and (2) model 2 included the degree of independence 2 weeks postsurgery for ADL chair transfer, ADL ambulation, and age (sensitivity=65.6%, specificity=87.0%, positive predictive value=75.0%, positive likelihood ratio=5.063). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of both CPR models were .825 (95% confidential interval, .728-.923) and .790 (95% confidence interval, .683-.897), respectively. CPRs with moderate accuracy were developed to predict declines in ADL at 6 months after surgery for hip fracture repair. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

Building Supervisory Confidence--A Key to Transfer of Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byham, William C.; Robinson, James

1977-01-01

A training concept is described which suggests that efforts toward maintaining and/or building the confidence of the participants in supervisory training programs can increase their likelihood of using the skills on the job. (TA)

Empiric Auto-Titrating CPAP in People with Suspected Obstructive Sleep Apnea

PubMed Central

Drummond, Fitzgerald; Doelken, Peter; Ahmed, Qanta A.; Gilbert, Gregory E.; Strange, Charlie; Herpel, Laura; Frye, Michael D.

2010-01-01

Objective: Efficient diagnosis and treatment of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) can be difficult because of time delays imposed by clinic visits and serial overnight polysomnography. In some cases, it may be desirable to initiate treatment for suspected OSA prior to polysomnography. Our objective was to compare the improvement of daytime sleepiness and sleep-related quality of life of patients with high clinical likelihood of having OSA who were randomly assigned to receive empiric auto-titrating continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) while awaiting polysomnogram versus current usual care. Methods: Serial patients referred for overnight polysomnography who had high clinical likelihood of having OSA were randomly assigned to usual care or immediate initiation of auto-titrating CPAP. Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) scores and the Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire (FOSQ) scores were obtained at baseline, 1 month after randomization, and again after initiation of fixed CPAP in control subjects and after the sleep study in auto-CPAP patients. Results: One hundred nine patients were randomized. Baseline demographics, daytime sleepiness, and sleep-related quality of life scores were similar between groups. One-month ESS and FOSQ scores were improved in the group empirically treated with auto-titrating CPAP. ESS scores improved in the first month by a mean of −3.2 (confidence interval −1.6 to −4.8, p < 0.001) and FOSQ scores improved by a mean of 1.5, (confidence interval 0.5 to 2.7, p = 0.02), whereas scores in the usual-care group did not change (p = NS). Following therapy directed by overnight polysomnography in the control group, there were no differences in ESS or FOSQ between the groups. No adverse events were observed. Conclusion: Empiric auto-CPAP resulted in symptomatic improvement of daytime sleepiness and sleep-related quality of life in a cohort of patients awaiting polysomnography who had a high pretest probability of having OSA. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the applicability of empiric treatment to other populations. Citation: Drummond F; Doelken P; Ahmed QA; Gilbert GE; Strange C; Herpel L; Frye MD. Empiric auto-titrating CPAP in people with suspected obstructive sleep apnea. J Clin Sleep Med 2010;6(2):140-145. PMID:20411690

The prognostic value of pre-operative and post-operative B-type natriuretic peptides in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery: B-type natriuretic peptide and N-terminal fragment of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rodseth, Reitze N; Biccard, Bruce M; Le Manach, Yannick; Sessler, Daniel I; Lurati Buse, Giovana A; Thabane, Lehana; Schutt, Robert C; Bolliger, Daniel; Cagini, Lucio; Cardinale, Daniela; Chong, Carol P W; Chu, Rong; Cnotliwy, Miłosław; Di Somma, Salvatore; Fahrner, René; Lim, Wen Kwang; Mahla, Elisabeth; Manikandan, Ramaswamy; Puma, Francesco; Pyun, Wook B; Radović, Milan; Rajagopalan, Sriram; Suttie, Stuart; Vanniyasingam, Thuvaraha; van Gaal, William J; Waliszek, Marek; Devereaux, P J

2014-01-21

The objective of this study was to determine whether measuring post-operative B-type natriuretic peptides (NPs) (i.e., B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] and N-terminal fragment of proBNP [NT-proBNP]) enhances risk stratification in adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, in whom a pre-operative NP has been measured. Pre-operative NP concentrations are powerful independent predictors of perioperative cardiovascular complications, but recent studies have reported that elevated post-operative NP concentrations are independently associated with these complications. It is not clear whether there is value in measuring post-operative NP when a pre-operative measurement has been done. We conducted a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to determine whether the addition of post-operative NP levels enhanced the prediction of the composite of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction at 30 and ≥180 days after surgery. Eighteen eligible studies provided individual patient data (n = 2,179). Adding post-operative NP to a risk prediction model containing pre-operative NP improved model fit and risk classification at both 30 days (corrected quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion: 1,280 to 1,204; net reclassification index: 20%; p < 0.001) and ≥180 days (corrected quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion: 1,320 to 1,300; net reclassification index: 11%; p = 0.003). Elevated post-operative NP was the strongest independent predictor of the primary outcome at 30 days (odds ratio: 3.7; 95% confidence interval: 2.2 to 6.2; p < 0.001) and ≥180 days (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.9 to 2.7; p < 0.001) after surgery. Additional post-operative NP measurement enhanced risk stratification for the composite outcomes of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 30 days and ≥180 days after noncardiac surgery compared with a pre-operative NP measurement alone. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and susceptibility to vitiligo: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Silky; Changotra, Harish

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 gene, which translates to lymphoid tyrosine phosphatase, is considered to be a susceptibility gene marker associated with several autoimmune diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo. However, these studies showed conflicting results. Meta-analysis of the same was conducted earlier that included fewer number of publications in their study. We performed a meta-analysis of a total of seven studies consisting of 2094 cases and 3613 controls to evaluate the possible association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C>T polymorphism with vitiligo susceptibility. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Google Scholar and Dogpile for all published paper on protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and vitiligo risk till June 2016. Data analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 and comprehensive meta-analysis v3.0 software. Meta-analysis showed an overall significant association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non- receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo in all models (allelic model [T vs. C]: odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [1.32-1.71], P< 0.001; dominant model [TT + CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [1.16-2.24], P = 0.004; recessive model [TT vs. CT + CC]: odds ratio = 4.82, 95% confidence interval [1.11-20.92], P = 0.04; homozygous model [TT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 5.34, 95% confidence interval [1.23-23.24], P = 0.03; co-dominant model [CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [1.09-2.13], P = 0.01). No publication bias was detected in the funnel plot study. Limited ethnic-based studies, unable to satisfy data by gender or vitiligo-type are some limitations of the present meta-analysis. Stratifying data by ethnicity showed an association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T with vitiligo in European population (odds ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [1.34-1.75], P< 0.001) but not in Asian population (odds ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [0.26-1.32], P = 0.2). In conclusion, protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858 T allele predisposes European individuals to vitiligo.

New method to incorporate Type B uncertainty into least-squares procedures in radionuclide metrology.

PubMed

Han, Jubong; Lee, K B; Lee, Jong-Man; Park, Tae Soon; Oh, J S; Oh, Pil-Jei

2016-03-01

We discuss a new method to incorporate Type B uncertainty into least-squares procedures. The new method is based on an extension of the likelihood function from which a conventional least-squares function is derived. The extended likelihood function is the product of the original likelihood function with additional PDFs (Probability Density Functions) that characterize the Type B uncertainties. The PDFs are considered to describe one's incomplete knowledge on correction factors being called nuisance parameters. We use the extended likelihood function to make point and interval estimations of parameters in the basically same way as the least-squares function used in the conventional least-squares method is derived. Since the nuisance parameters are not of interest and should be prevented from appearing in the final result, we eliminate such nuisance parameters by using the profile likelihood. As an example, we present a case study for a linear regression analysis with a common component of Type B uncertainty. In this example we compare the analysis results obtained from using our procedure with those from conventional methods. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Sequential acquisition of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection of the anus and cervix: the Hawaii HPV Cohort Study.

PubMed

Goodman, Marc T; Shvetsov, Yurii B; McDuffie, Katharine; Wilkens, Lynne R; Zhu, Xuemei; Thompson, Pamela J; Ning, Lily; Killeen, Jeffrey; Kamemoto, Lori; Hernandez, Brenda Y

2010-05-01

Relatively little is known about the epidemiology of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in healthy women and its association with cervical HPV infection. he association of an incident cervical (or anal) HPV infection with the subsequent risk of a genotype-concordant incident anal (or cervical) HPV infection was examined in a longitudinal cohort study of 751 sexually active women. Age-adjusted hazard ratios, obtained using Cox regression, served as measurements of relative risk (RR). Among women, the RR of acquiring an anal HPV infection after a cervical infection with HPV of the same genotype was 20.5 (95% confidence interval, 16.3-25.7), and the RR of acquiring a cervical HPV infection after an anal infection with HPV of the same genotype was 8.8 (95% confidence interval, 6.4-12.2), compared with women without a previous anal/cervical infection with HPV of a concordant genotype. RRs varied by phylogenetic species, with HPV alpha3/alpha15 and alpha1/alpha8/alpha10 types having a greater likelihood than other types of HPV infecting the anus among women with a previous infection at the cervix with HPV of the same genotype. It appears common for anal and cervical HPV infections to occur consecutively. The high degree of genotype-specific concordance suggests that the cervix (vagina) and anus may serve as reservoirs for HPV infection at the other anatomical site.

Factors affecting blood sample haemolysis: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Barnard, Ed B G; Potter, David L; Ayling, Ruth M; Higginson, Ian; Bailey, Andrew G; Smith, Jason E

2016-04-01

To determine the effect of blood sampling through an intravenous catheter compared with a needle in Emergency Department blood sampling. We undertook a prospective, cross-sectional study in a UK university teaching hospital Emergency Department. A convenience sample of 985 patients who required blood sampling via venepuncture was collected. A total of 844 complete sets of data were analysed. The median age was 63 years, and 57% of patients were male. The primary outcome measure was the incidence of haemolysis in blood samples obtained via a needle compared with samples obtained via an intravenous catheter. Secondary outcome measures defined the effect on sample haemolysis of the side of the patient the sample was obtained from, the anatomical location of sampling, the perceived difficulty in obtaining the sample, the order of sample tubes collected, estimated tourniquet time and bench time. Data were analysed with logistic regression, and expressed as odds ratios (95% confidence intervals; P-values). Blood samples obtained through an intravenous catheter were more likely to be haemolysed than those obtained via a needle, odds ratio 5.63 (95% confidence interval 2.49-12.73; P<0.001). Blood sampling via an intravenous catheter was significantly associated with an increase in the likelihood of sample haemolysis compared with sampling with a needle. Wherever practicable, blood samples should be obtained via a needle in preference to an intravenous catheter. Future research should include both an economic evaluation, and staff and patient satisfaction of separating blood sampling and intravenous catheter placement.

Associations of Statins and Diabetes with Diagnosis of Ulcerated Cutaneous Melanoma.

PubMed

von Schuckmann, Lena A; Smith, David; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Malt, Maryrose; van der Pols, Jolieke C; Khosrotehrani, Kiarash; Smithers, Bernard M; Green, Adele C

2017-12-01

Ulcerated primary melanomas are associated with an inflammatory tumor microenvironment. We hypothesized that systemic proinflammatory states and anti-inflammatory medications are also associated with a diagnosis of ulcerated melanoma. In a cross-sectional study of 787 patients with newly diagnosed clinical stage IB or II melanoma, we estimated odds ratios for the association of proinflammatory factors (high body mass index, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and smoking) or the use of anti-inflammatory medications (statins, aspirin, corticosteroids, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), with ulcerated primary melanoma using regression models and subgroup analyses to control for melanoma thickness and mitotic rate. On the basis of information from 194 patients with ulcerated and 593 patients with nonulcerated primary melanomas, regular statin users had lower likelihood of a diagnosis of ulcerated primary melanoma (odds ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.99), and this association remained after adjusting for age, sex, thickness, and mitosis. When analysis was limited to melanomas that were ≤2 mm thick and had ≤2 mitoses/mm 2 (40 ulcerated; 289 without ulceration), patients with diabetes had significantly raised odds of diagnosis of ulcerated melanoma (odds ratio 2.90, 95% confidence interval 1.07-7.90), adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and statin use. These findings support our hypotheses that statin use is inversely associated, and diabetes is positively associated, with ulcerated melanoma. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The meaning of diagnostic test results: a spreadsheet for swift data analysis.

PubMed

Maceneaney, P M; Malone, D E

2000-03-01

To design a spreadsheet program to: (a) analyse rapidly diagnostic test result data produced in local research or reported in the literature; (b) correct reported predictive values for disease prevalence in any population; (c) estimate the post-test probability of disease in individual patients. Microsoft Excel(TM)was used. Section A: a contingency (2 x 2) table was incorporated into the spreadsheet. Formulae for standard calculations [sample size, disease prevalence, sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals, predictive values and likelihood ratios (LRs)] were linked to this table. The results change automatically when the data in the true or false negative and positive cells are changed. Section B: this estimates predictive values in any population, compensating for altered disease prevalence. Sections C-F: Bayes' theorem was incorporated to generate individual post-test probabilities. The spreadsheet generates 95% confidence intervals, LRs and a table and graph of conditional probabilities once the sensitivity and specificity of the test are entered. The latter shows the expected post-test probability of disease for any pre-test probability when a test of known sensitivity and specificity is positive or negative. This spreadsheet can be used on desktop and palmtop computers. The MS Excel(TM)version can be downloaded via the Internet from the URL ftp://radiography.com/pub/Rad-data99.xls A spreadsheet is useful for contingency table data analysis and assessment of the clinical meaning of diagnostic test results. Copyright 2000 The Royal College of Radiologists.

Can the height of fall predict long bone fracture in children under 24 months?

PubMed

Hansoti, Bhakti; Beattie, Tom

2005-12-01

It can be difficult to determine the exact mechanism of injury in infants and babies aged 24 months and under. Falls are the most common mechanism of injury in children. The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between reported height of fall and long bone fracture. All children aged under 24 months who sustained a fracture (in the year 2003) were identified prospectively on the departmental fracture database. These children were matched for age and sex with children identified as having fallen but not having sustained a fracture. Sixty-three children aged 24 months and under were studied. The median height of fall in this group was 48 cm and that in the control group was 20 cm, P<0.001. A significant correlation was observed between the height of fall (cm) and severity of injury (Pearson's correlation coefficient=0.255). Receiver operating characteristic analysis indicates that the likelihood of significant fracture requiring admission and/or manipulation under anaesthesia occurs with a fall from a height of 56 cm [sensitivity 80% (confidence interval 29-97%), specificity 79% (confidence interval 70-86%)]. It was not possible to identify a height at which the risk of any fracture injury became significantly more likely. Height of fall is only one factor that must be considered in dealing with fracture injury in children aged 24 months or under. However, significant injury presenting with falls from less than 50 cm should be critically evaluated.

The IDEA model: A single equation approach to the Ebola forecasting challenge.

PubMed

Tuite, Ashleigh R; Fisman, David N

2018-03-01

Mathematical modeling is increasingly accepted as a tool that can inform disease control policy in the face of emerging infectious diseases, such as the 2014-2015 West African Ebola epidemic, but little is known about the relative performance of alternate forecasting approaches. The RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge (REFC) tested the ability of eight mathematical models to generate useful forecasts in the face of simulated Ebola outbreaks. We used a simple, phenomenological single-equation model (the "IDEA" model), which relies only on case counts, in the REFC. Model fits were performed using a maximum likelihood approach. We found that the model performed reasonably well relative to other more complex approaches, with performance metrics ranked on average 4th or 5th among participating models. IDEA appeared better suited to long- than short-term forecasts, and could be fit using nothing but reported case counts. Several limitations were identified, including difficulty in identifying epidemic peak (even retrospectively), unrealistically precise confidence intervals, and difficulty interpolating daily case counts when using a model scaled to epidemic generation time. More realistic confidence intervals were generated when case counts were assumed to follow a negative binomial, rather than Poisson, distribution. Nonetheless, IDEA represents a simple phenomenological model, easily implemented in widely available software packages that could be used by frontline public health personnel to generate forecasts with accuracy that approximates that which is achieved using more complex methodologies. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ketamine reduces the need for intubation in patients with acute severe mental illness and agitation requiring transport to definitive care: An observational study.

PubMed

Parsch, Cathrin S; Boonstra, Adrianne; Teubner, David; Emmerton, Wade; McKenny, Brian; Ellis, Daniel Y

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to review mental health patients transported by a dedicated statewide critical care retrieval team before and after the implementation of a ketamine sedation guideline. This is a a retrospective cohort study of mental health patients with acute behavioural disturbance, transported between January 2010 and December 2015. A total of 78 patients were transported in the study period, 50 before and 28 after implementation of the ketamine guideline in June 2013. The introduction of the ketamine guideline was associated with a significant reduction in intubation for transport (36.00 vs 7.14%) (odds ratio 0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.71, P < 0.01). The likelihood of utilising ketamine for non-intubated patients (n = 58) was higher in the period after implementation (37.50 vs 84.62%, odds ratio 9.17, 95% confidence interval 2.54-33.08, P < 0.005). The incidence of complications in our series was low. The implementation of a ketamine clinical practice guideline for agitated mental health patients was associated with an increase in the number of patients receiving ketamine as part of their sedation regime and a reduction in the number of patients requiring intubation for transport. Appropriately trained critical care retrieval teams should consider ketamine as part of the sedation regime for agitated mental health patients. © 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Social relationships and longitudinal changes in body mass index and waist circumference: the coronary artery risk development in young adults study.

PubMed

Kershaw, Kiarri N; Hankinson, Arlene L; Liu, Kiang; Reis, Jared P; Lewis, Cora E; Loria, Catherine M; Carnethon, Mercedes R

2014-03-01

Few studies have examined longitudinal associations between close social relationships and weight change. Using data from 3,074 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study who were examined in 2000, 2005, and 2010 (at ages 33-45 years in 2000), we estimated separate logistic regression random-effects models to assess whether patterns of exposure to supportive and negative relationships were associated with 10% or greater increases in body mass index (BMI) (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) and waist circumference. Linear regression random-effects modeling was used to examine associations of social relationships with mean changes in BMI and waist circumference. Participants with persistently high supportive relationships were significantly less likely to increase their BMI values and waist circumference by 10% or greater compared with those with persistently low supportive relationships after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, baseline BMI/waist circumference, depressive symptoms, and health behaviors. Persistently high negative relationships were associated with higher likelihood of 10% or greater increases in waist circumference (odds ratio = 1.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.15, 2.29) and marginally higher BMI increases (odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 2.24) compared with participants with persistently low negative relationships. Increasingly negative relationships were associated with increases in waist circumference only. These findings suggest that supportive relationships may minimize weight gain, and that adverse relationships may contribute to weight gain, particularly via central fat accumulation.

Social Relationships and Longitudinal Changes in Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study

PubMed Central

Kershaw, Kiarri N.; Hankinson, Arlene L.; Liu, Kiang; Reis, Jared P.; Lewis, Cora E.; Loria, Catherine M.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.

2014-01-01

Few studies have examined longitudinal associations between close social relationships and weight change. Using data from 3,074 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study who were examined in 2000, 2005, and 2010 (at ages 33–45 years in 2000), we estimated separate logistic regression random-effects models to assess whether patterns of exposure to supportive and negative relationships were associated with 10% or greater increases in body mass index (BMI) (weight (kg)/height (m)2) and waist circumference. Linear regression random-effects modeling was used to examine associations of social relationships with mean changes in BMI and waist circumference. Participants with persistently high supportive relationships were significantly less likely to increase their BMI values and waist circumference by 10% or greater compared with those with persistently low supportive relationships after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, baseline BMI/waist circumference, depressive symptoms, and health behaviors. Persistently high negative relationships were associated with higher likelihood of 10% or greater increases in waist circumference (odds ratio = 1.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.15, 2.29) and marginally higher BMI increases (odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 2.24) compared with participants with persistently low negative relationships. Increasingly negative relationships were associated with increases in waist circumference only. These findings suggest that supportive relationships may minimize weight gain, and that adverse relationships may contribute to weight gain, particularly via central fat accumulation. PMID:24389018

Socioeconomic Status, Structural and Functional Measures of Social Support, and Mortality

PubMed Central

Stringhini, Silvia; Berkman, Lisa; Dugravot, Aline; Ferrie, Jane E.; Marmot, Michael; Kivimaki, Mika; Singh-Manoux, Archana

2012-01-01

The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35–55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES. PMID:22534202

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Defining when to initiate massive transfusion: a validation study of individual massive transfusion triggers in PROMMTT patients.

PubMed

Callcut, Rachael A; Cotton, Bryan A; Muskat, Peter; Fox, Erin E; Wade, Charles E; Holcomb, John B; Schreiber, Martin A; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Cohen, Mitchell J; Knudson, M Margaret; Brasel, Karen J; Bulger, Eileen M; Del Junco, Deborah J; Myers, John G; Alarcon, Louis H; Robinson, Bryce R H

2013-01-01

Early predictors of massive transfusion (MT) would prevent undertriage of patients likely to require MT. This study validates triggers using the Prospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study. All enrolled patients in PROMMTT were analyzed. The initial emergency department value for each trigger (international normalized ratio [INR], systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin, base deficit, positive result for Focused Assessment for the Sonography of Trauma examination, heart rate, temperature, and penetrating injury mechanism) was compared for patients receiving MT (≥ 10 U of packed red blood cells in 24 hours) versus no MT. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for MT are reported using multiple logistic regression. If all triggers were known, a Massive Transfusion Score (MTS) was created, with 1 point assigned for each met trigger. A total of 1,245 patients were prospectively enrolled with 297 receiving an MT. Data were available for all triggers in 66% of the patients including 67% of the MTs (199 of 297). INR was known in 87% (1,081 of 1,245). All triggers except penetrating injury mechanism and heart rate were valid individual predictors of MT, with INR as the most predictive (adjusted OR, 2.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-3.7). For those with all triggers known, a positive INR trigger was seen in 49% receiving MT. Patients with an MTS of less than 2 were unlikely to receive MT (negative predictive value, 89%). If any two triggers were present (MTS ≥ 2), sensitivity for predicting MT was 85%. MT was present in 33% with an MTS of 2 greater compared with 11% of those with MTS of less than 2 (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.8; p < 0.0005). Parameters that can be obtained early in the initial emergency department evaluation are valid predictors for determining the likelihood of MT. Diagnostic, level II.

Relationship between two indicators of coronary risk estimated by the Framingham Risk Score and the number of metabolic syndrome components in Japanese male manufacturing workers.

PubMed

Kawada, Tomoyuki; Otsuka, Toshiaki; Inagaki, Hirofumi; Wakayama, Yoko; Li, Qing; Katsumata, Masao

2009-10-01

The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) has frequently been used in the United States to predict the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Components of the metabolic syndrome and several lifestyle factors have also been evaluated to estimate the risk of CHD. To determine the relationship between the FRS and components of metabolic syndrome as coronary risk indicators, the authors conducted a cross-sectional study of 2,619 Japanese male workers, ranging in age from 40 to 64 years, at a single workplace. Although the estimation by the FRS and metabolic syndrome involved some different factors, significant association of the risk estimated by the 2 methods was observed. When logistic regression analysis was conducted with adjustment for several lifestyle factors, the FRS and serum insulin were found to be significantly associated with the risk of likelihood of metabolic syndrome. The odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of FRS by per standard deviation increment and serum insulin by increasing 1 microIU/mL for the prediction of metabolic syndrome were 2.50 (2.17-2.88) and 1.24 (1.20-1.27), respectively. A preventive effect of abstaining from drinking every day and eating breakfast almost daily against the likelihood of metabolic syndrome was also observed. In conclusion, the FRS and insulin were found to be significantly associated with the risk of likelihood of metabolic syndrome, even after controlling for weight change.

Parental migration and Asperger’s syndrome

PubMed Central

Cheslack-Postava, Keely; Gissler, Mika; Hinkka-Yli-Salomäki, Susanna; Brown, Alan S.; Sourander, Andre

2014-01-01

Parental immigration has been suggested as a possible risk factor for autism spectrum disorders (ASD), but findings have been inconsistent. Very few studies have focused specifically on Asperger’s syndrome. The aim of this study was to examine the association between maternal and paternal immigration and the diagnosis of Asperger’s syndrome in offspring. The study was a nested case–control study based on a national birth cohort in Finland. Children born in 1987–2005 and diagnosed with Asperger’s syndrome by the year 2007 were identified from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register (N = 1,783). Four matched controls for each case were selected from the Finnish Medical Birth Register (N = 7,106). Information on maternal and paternal country of birth and mother tongue was collected from the Finnish Central Population Register. The study showed that children whose parents are both immigrants have a significantly lower likelihood of being diagnosed with Asperger’s syndrome than those with two Finnish parents [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.2, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.1–0.4]. No significant associations were found between having only one immigrant parent and the diagnosis of Asperger’s syndrome. A regional analysis showed a significantly decreased likelihood of the diagnosis of Asperger’s syndrome in children whose mother (aOR 0.1, 95 % CI 0.01–0.5) or father (aOR 0.2, 95 % CI 0.05–0.5) was born in Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings may help in identifying risk factors for different ASD subtypes. On the other hand, they might reflect service use of immigrant families in Finland. PMID:25381114

Factors associated with recovery from anorexia nervosa: a population-based study.

PubMed

Keski-Rahkonen, Anna; Raevuori, Anu; Bulik, Cynthia M; Hoek, Hans W; Rissanen, Aila; Kaprio, Jaakko

2014-03-01

To examine factors associated with the outcome of anorexia nervosa among women from the general population. Women (N = 2,881) from the 1975-1979 birth cohorts of Finnish twins were screened for lifetime DSM-IV anorexia nervosa (N = 55 cases) using questionnaires and the SCID interview. Potential factors associated with the likelihood of recovery were addressed in the same assessment. Recovery was defined as restoration of weight, menstruation, and the absence of bingeing and purging for at least one year prior to assessment. Using two-tailed t tests and Pearson's chi-square tests, we contrasted recovered (N = 39) and unrecovered (N = 16) women. We then used logistic regression adjusted for duration of illness and Cox proportional hazard models to account for the variable lengths of illness on prognostic factors. Unrecovered women were more likely to suffer from depressive symptoms prior to eating disorder onset (18.8% vs. 2.6%, p = 0.04), remain unemployed (18.8% vs. 2.6%, p = 0.04), report dissatisfaction with their current partner/spouse (p = 0.02), and report high perfectionism (p = 0.05) than were recovered women. When duration of illness was accounted for in the analyses, premorbid depression was the sole factor significantly associated with decreased likelihood of recovery (hazard ratio 0.17, 95% confidence interval: 0.03-0.89). Predicting the course of anorexia remains fraught with difficulty, but premorbid depressive symptoms are associated with poor outcome of anorexia nervosa in the general population. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tachycardia may prognosticate life- or organ-threatening diseases in children with abdominal pain.

PubMed

Hayakawa, Itaru; Sakakibara, Hiroshi; Atsumi, Yukari; Hataya, Hiroshi; Terakawa, Toshiro

2017-06-01

Abdominal pain is common in children, but expeditious diagnosis of life- or organ-threatening diseases can be challenging. An evidence-based definition of tachycardia in children was established recently, but its diagnostic utility has not yet been studied. To test the hypothesis that abdominal pain with tachycardia may pose a higher likelihood of life- or organ-threatening diseases in children. A nested case-control study was conducted in a pediatric emergency department in 2013. Tachycardia was defined as a resting heart rate of more than 3 standard deviations above the average for that age. Life- or organ-threatening diseases were defined as "disorders that might result in permanent morbidity or mortality without appropriate intervention." A triage team recorded vital signs before emergency physicians attended patients. Patients with tachycardia (cases) and without tachycardia (controls) were systematically matched for age, sex, and month of visit. The groups were compared for the presence of life- or organ-threatening diseases. There were 1683 visits for abdominal pain, 1512 of which had vital signs measured at rest. Eighty-three patients experienced tachycardia, while 1429 did not. Fifty-eight cases and 58 controls were matched. Life- or organ-threatening diseases were more common in the case group (19%) than the control group (5%, p=0.043). The relative risk of tachycardia to the presence of the diseases was 3.7 (95% confidence interval 1.2-12.0). Tachycardia significantly increased the likelihood of life- or organ-threatening diseases. Tachycardia in children with abdominal pain should alert emergency physicians to the possibility of serious illness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Case finding of lifestyle and mental health disorders in primary care: validation of the ‘CHAT’ tool

PubMed Central

Goodyear-Smith, Felicity; Coupe, Nicole M; Arroll, Bruce; Elley, C Raina; Sullivan, Sean; McGill, Anne-Thea

2008-01-01

Background Primary care is accessible and ideally placed for case finding of patients with lifestyle and mental health risk factors and subsequent intervention. The short self-administered Case-finding and Help Assessment Tool (CHAT) was developed for lifestyle and mental health assessment of adult patients in primary health care. This tool checks for tobacco use, alcohol and other drug misuse, problem gambling, depression, anxiety and stress, abuse, anger problems, inactivity, and eating disorders. It is well accepted by patients, GPs and nurses. Aim To assess criterion-based validity of CHAT against a composite gold standard. Design of study Conducted according to the Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy statement for diagnostic tests. Setting Primary care practices in Auckland, New Zealand. Method One thousand consecutive adult patients completed CHAT and a composite gold standard. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Results Response rates for each item ranged from 79.6 to 99.8%. CHAT was sensitive and specific for almost all issues screened, except exercise and eating disorders. Sensitivity ranged from 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 87 to 99%) for major depression to 26% (95% CI = 22 to 30%) for exercise. Specificity ranged from 97% (95% CI = 96 to 98%) for problem gambling and problem drug use to 40% (95% CI = 36 to 45%) for exercise. All had high likelihood ratios (3–30), except exercise and eating disorders. Conclusion CHAT is a valid and acceptable case-finding tool for most common lifestyle and mental health conditions. PMID:18186993

Log-normal frailty models fitted as Poisson generalized linear mixed models.

PubMed

Hirsch, Katharina; Wienke, Andreas; Kuss, Oliver

2016-12-01

The equivalence of a survival model with a piecewise constant baseline hazard function and a Poisson regression model has been known since decades. As shown in recent studies, this equivalence carries over to clustered survival data: A frailty model with a log-normal frailty term can be interpreted and estimated as a generalized linear mixed model with a binary response, a Poisson likelihood, and a specific offset. Proceeding this way, statistical theory and software for generalized linear mixed models are readily available for fitting frailty models. This gain in flexibility comes at the small price of (1) having to fix the number of pieces for the baseline hazard in advance and (2) having to "explode" the data set by the number of pieces. In this paper we extend the simulations of former studies by using a more realistic baseline hazard (Gompertz) and by comparing the model under consideration with competing models. Furthermore, the SAS macro %PCFrailty is introduced to apply the Poisson generalized linear mixed approach to frailty models. The simulations show good results for the shared frailty model. Our new %PCFrailty macro provides proper estimates, especially in case of 4 events per piece. The suggested Poisson generalized linear mixed approach for log-normal frailty models based on the %PCFrailty macro provides several advantages in the analysis of clustered survival data with respect to more flexible modelling of fixed and random effects, exact (in the sense of non-approximate) maximum likelihood estimation, and standard errors and different types of confidence intervals for all variance parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Comparison of two different size needles in endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration for diagnosing solid pancreatic lesions

PubMed Central

Xu, Mei-Mei; Jia, Hong-Yu; Yan, Li-Li; Li, Shan-Shan; Zheng, Yue

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: This meta-analysis aimed to provide a pooled analysis of prospective controlled trials comparing the diagnostic accuracy of 22-G and 25-G needles on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS-FNA) of the solid pancreatic mass. Methods: We established a rigorous study protocol according to Cochrane Collaboration recommendations. We systematically searched the PubMed and Embase databases to identify articles to include in the meta-analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated for 22-G and 25-G needles of individual studies from the contingency tables. Results: Eleven prospective controlled trials included a total of 837 patients (412 with 22-G vs 425 with 25-G). Our outcomes revealed that 25-G needles (92% [95% CI, 89%–95%]) have higher sensitivity than 22-G needles (88% [95% CI, 84%–91%]) on solid pancreatic mass EUS-FNA (P = 0.046). However, there were no significant differences between the 2 groups in overall diagnostic specificity (P = 0.842). The pooled positive and negative likelihood ratio of the 22-G needle were 12.61 (95% CI, 5.65–28.14) and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.12–0.21), respectively. The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 12.61 (95% CI, 5.65–28.14), and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.16 (95% CI, 0.12–0.21) for the 22-G needle. The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 8.44 (95% CI, 3.87–18.42), and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.09–0.18) for the 25-G needle. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.97 for the 22-G needle and 0.96 for the 25-G needle. Conclusion: Compared to the study of 22-G EUS-FNA needles, our study showed that 25-G needles have superior sensitivity in the evaluation of solid pancreatic lesions by EUS–FNA. PMID:28151856

Long term cause specific mortality among 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study

PubMed Central

Fidler, Miranda M; Reulen, Raoul C; Winter, David L; Kelly, Julie; Jenkinson, Helen C; Skinner, Rod; Frobisher, Clare

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood cancer. Design Population based cohort study. Setting British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Participants Nationwide population based cohort of 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014. Main outcome measures Cause specific standardised mortality ratios and absolute excess risks are reported. Multivariable Poisson regression models were utilised to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity or trend. Results Overall, 4475 deaths were observed, which was 9.1 (95% confidence interval 8.9 to 9.4) times that expected in the general population, corresponding to 64.2 (95% confidence interval 62.1 to 66.3) excess deaths per 10 000 person years. The number of excess deaths from all causes declined among those treated more recently; those treated during 1990-2006 experienced 30% of the excess number of deaths experienced by those treated before 1970. The corresponding percentages for the decline in excess deaths from recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes were 30% and 60%, respectively. Among survivors aged 50-59 years, 41% and 22% of excess deaths were attributable to subsequent primary neoplasms and circulatory conditions, respectively, whereas the corresponding percentages among those aged 60 years or more were 31% and 37%. Conclusions The net effects of changes in cancer treatments, and surveillance and management for late effects, over the period 1940 to 2006 was to reduce the excess number of deaths from both recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes among those treated more recently. Among survivors aged 60 years or more, the excess number of deaths from circulatory causes exceeds the excess number of deaths from subsequent primary neoplasms. The important message for the evidence based surveillance aimed at preventing excess mortality and morbidity in survivors aged 60 years or more is that circulatory disease overtakes subsequent primary neoplasms as the leading cause of excess mortality. PMID:27586237

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

Evidence-based Diagnostics: Adult Septic Arthritis

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Christopher R.; Schuur, Jeremiah D.; Everett, Worth W.; Pines, Jesse M.

2011-01-01

Background Acutely swollen or painful joints are common complaints in the emergency department (ED). Septic arthritis in adults is a challenging diagnosis, but prompt differentiation of a bacterial etiology is crucial to minimize morbidity and mortality. Objectives The objective was to perform a systematic review describing the diagnostic characteristics of history, physical examination, and bedside laboratory tests for nongonococcal septic arthritis. A secondary objective was to quantify test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity, as well as best-evidence diagnostic and treatment risks and anticipated benefits from appropriate therapy. Methods Two electronic search engines (PUBMED and EMBASE) were used in conjunction with a selected bibliography and scientific abstract hand search. Inclusion criteria included adult trials of patients presenting with monoarticular complaints if they reported sufficient detail to reconstruct partial or complete 2 × 2 contingency tables for experimental diagnostic test characteristics using an acceptable criterion standard. Evidence was rated by two investigators using the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS). When more than one similarly designed trial existed for a diagnostic test, meta-analysis was conducted using a random effects model. Interval likelihood ratios (LRs) were computed when possible. To illustrate one method to quantify theoretical points in the probability of disease whereby clinicians might cease testing altogether and either withhold treatment (test threshold) or initiate definitive therapy in lieu of further diagnostics (treatment threshold), an interactive spreadsheet was designed and sample calculations were provided based on research estimates of diagnostic accuracy, diagnostic risk, and therapeutic risk/benefits. Results The prevalence of nongonococcal septic arthritis in ED patients with a single acutely painful joint is approximately 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 17% to 38%). With the exception of joint surgery (positive likelihood ratio [+LR] = 6.9) or skin infection overlying a prosthetic joint (+LR = 15.0), history, physical examination, and serum tests do not significantly alter posttest probability. Serum inflammatory markers such as white blood cell (WBC) counts, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and C-reactive protein (CRP) are not useful acutely. The interval LR for synovial white blood cell (sWBC) counts of 0 × 109–25 × 109/ L was 0.33; for 25 × 109–50 × 109/L, 1.06; for 50 × 109–100 × 109/L, 3.59; and exceeding 100 × 109/L, infinity. Synovial lactate may be useful to rule in or rule out the diagnosis of septic arthritis with a +LR ranging from 2.4 to infinity, and negative likelihood ratio (−LR) ranging from 0 to 0.46. Rapid polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of synovial fluid may identify the causative organism within 3 hours. Based on 56% sensitivity and 90% specificity for sWBC counts of >50 × 109/L in conjunction with best-evidence estimates for diagnosis-related risk and treatment-related risk/benefit, the arthrocentesis test threshold is 5%, with a treatment threshold of 39%. Conclusions Recent joint surgery or cellulitis overlying a prosthetic hip or knee were the only findings on history or physical examination that significantly alter the probability of nongonococcal septic arthritis. Extreme values of sWBC (>50 × 109/L) can increase, but not decrease, the probability of septic arthritis. Future ED-based diagnostic trials are needed to evaluate the role of clinical gestalt and the efficacy of nontraditional synovial markers such as lactate. PMID:21843213

Evidence-based diagnostics: adult septic arthritis.

PubMed

Carpenter, Christopher R; Schuur, Jeremiah D; Everett, Worth W; Pines, Jesse M

2011-08-01

Acutely swollen or painful joints are common complaints in the emergency department (ED). Septic arthritis in adults is a challenging diagnosis, but prompt differentiation of a bacterial etiology is crucial to minimize morbidity and mortality. The objective was to perform a systematic review describing the diagnostic characteristics of history, physical examination, and bedside laboratory tests for nongonococcal septic arthritis. A secondary objective was to quantify test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity, as well as best-evidence diagnostic and treatment risks and anticipated benefits from appropriate therapy. Two electronic search engines (PUBMED and EMBASE) were used in conjunction with a selected bibliography and scientific abstract hand search. Inclusion criteria included adult trials of patients presenting with monoarticular complaints if they reported sufficient detail to reconstruct partial or complete 2 × 2 contingency tables for experimental diagnostic test characteristics using an acceptable criterion standard. Evidence was rated by two investigators using the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS). When more than one similarly designed trial existed for a diagnostic test, meta-analysis was conducted using a random effects model. Interval likelihood ratios (LRs) were computed when possible. To illustrate one method to quantify theoretical points in the probability of disease whereby clinicians might cease testing altogether and either withhold treatment (test threshold) or initiate definitive therapy in lieu of further diagnostics (treatment threshold), an interactive spreadsheet was designed and sample calculations were provided based on research estimates of diagnostic accuracy, diagnostic risk, and therapeutic risk/benefits. The prevalence of nongonococcal septic arthritis in ED patients with a single acutely painful joint is approximately 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 17% to 38%). With the exception of joint surgery (positive likelihood ratio [+LR] = 6.9) or skin infection overlying a prosthetic joint (+LR = 15.0), history, physical examination, and serum tests do not significantly alter posttest probability. Serum inflammatory markers such as white blood cell (WBC) counts, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and C-reactive protein (CRP) are not useful acutely. The interval LR for synovial white blood cell (sWBC) counts of 0 × 10(9)-25 × 10(9)/L was 0.33; for 25 × 10(9)-50 × 10(9)/L, 1.06; for 50 × 10(9)-100 × 10(9)/L, 3.59; and exceeding 100 × 10(9)/L, infinity. Synovial lactate may be useful to rule in or rule out the diagnosis of septic arthritis with a +LR ranging from 2.4 to infinity, and negative likelihood ratio (-LR) ranging from 0 to 0.46. Rapid polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of synovial fluid may identify the causative organism within 3 hours. Based on 56% sensitivity and 90% specificity for sWBC counts of >50 × 10(9)/L in conjunction with best-evidence estimates for diagnosis-related risk and treatment-related risk/benefit, the arthrocentesis test threshold is 5%, with a treatment threshold of 39%. Recent joint surgery or cellulitis overlying a prosthetic hip or knee were the only findings on history or physical examination that significantly alter the probability of nongonococcal septic arthritis. Extreme values of sWBC (>50 × 10(9)/L) can increase, but not decrease, the probability of septic arthritis. Future ED-based diagnostic trials are needed to evaluate the role of clinical gestalt and the efficacy of nontraditional synovial markers such as lactate. © 2011 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Numeric pathologic lymph node classification shows prognostic superiority to topographic pN classification in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Sugawara, Kotaro; Yamashita, Hiroharu; Uemura, Yukari; Mitsui, Takashi; Yagi, Koichi; Nishida, Masato; Aikou, Susumu; Mori, Kazuhiko; Nomura, Sachiyo; Seto, Yasuyuki

2017-10-01

The current eighth tumor node metastasis lymph node category pathologic lymph node staging system for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is based solely on the number of metastatic nodes and does not consider anatomic distribution. We aimed to assess the prognostic capability of the eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node staging system (numeric-based) compared with the 11th Japan Esophageal Society (topography-based) pathologic lymph node staging system in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 289 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent esophagectomy with extended lymph node dissection during the period from January 2006 through June 2016. We compared discrimination abilities for overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and cancer-specific survival between these 2 staging systems using C-statistics. The median number of dissected and metastatic nodes was 61 (25% to 75% quartile range, 45 to 79) and 1 (25% to 75% quartile range, 0 to 3), respectively. The eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node staging system had a greater ability to accurately determine overall survival (C-statistics: tumor node metastasis classification, 0.69, 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.76; Japan Esophageal Society classification; 0.65, 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.71; P = .014) and cancer-specific survival (C-statistics: tumor node metastasis classification, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.87; Japan Esophageal Society classification; 0.72, 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.80; P = .018). Rates of total recurrence rose as the eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node stage increased, while stratification of patients according to the topography-based node classification system was not feasible. Numeric nodal staging is an essential tool for stratifying the oncologic outcomes of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma even in the cohort in which adequate numbers of lymph nodes were harvested. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparing cost-effectiveness of X-Stop with minimally invasive decompression in lumbar spinal stenosis: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Lønne, Greger; Johnsen, Lars Gunnar; Aas, Eline; Lydersen, Stian; Andresen, Hege; Rønning, Roar; Nygaard, Øystein P

2015-04-15

Randomized clinical trial with 2-year follow-up. To compare the cost-effectiveness of X-stop to minimally invasive decompression in patients with symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis. Lumbar spinal stenosis is the most common indication for operative treatment in elderly. Although surgery is more costly than nonoperative treatment, health outcomes for more than 2 years were shown to be significantly better. Surgical treatment with minimally invasive decompression is widely used. X-stop is introduced as another minimally invasive technique showing good results compared with nonoperative treatment. We enrolled 96 patients aged 50 to 85 years, with symptoms of neurogenic intermittent claudication within 250-m walking distance and 1- or 2-level lumbar spinal stenosis, randomized to either minimally invasive decompression or X-stop. Quality-adjusted life-years were based on EuroQol EQ-5D. The hospital unit costs were estimated by means of the top-down approach. Each cost unit was converted into a monetary value by dividing the overall cost by the amount of cost units produced. The analysis of costs and health outcomes is presented by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The study was terminated after a midway interim analysis because of significantly higher reoperation rate in the X-stop group (33%). The incremental cost for X-stop compared with minimally invasive decompression was &OV0556;2832 (95% confidence interval: 1886-3778), whereas the incremental health gain was 0.11 quality-adjusted life-year (95% confidence interval: -0.01 to 0.23). Based on the incremental cost and effect, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was &OV0556;25,700. The majority of the bootstrap samples displayed in the northeast corner of the cost-effectiveness plane, giving a 50% likelihood that X-stop is cost-effective at the extra cost of &OV0556;25,700 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) for a quality-adjusted life-year. The significantly higher cost of X-stop is mainly due to implant cost and the significantly higher reoperation rate. 2.

Cost-Consequence Analysis Alongside a Randomised Controlled Trial of Hospital Versus Telephone Follow-Up after Treatment for Endometrial Cancer.

PubMed

Dixon, Padraig; Beaver, Kinta; Williamson, Susan; Sutton, Chris; Martin-Hirsch, Pierre; Hollingworth, William

2018-06-01

Regular outpatient follow-up programmes are usually offered to patients following treatment for gynaecological and other cancers. Despite the substantial resources involved in providing these programmes, there is evidence that routine follow-up programmes do not affect survival or the likelihood of detecting recurrence and may not meet patient needs. Alternative follow-up modalities may offer the same outcomes at lower cost. We examined the costs of using telephone-based routine follow-up of women treated for endometrial cancer undertaken by specialist gynaecology oncology nurses in comparison to routine hospital-based follow-up. The ENDCAT trial randomised 259 women at five centres in the north west of England with a known diagnosis of Stage I endometrial cancer who had completed primary treatment on a 1:1 basis to receive either standard hospital outpatient follow-up or a telephone follow-up intervention administered by specialist nurses. A cost-consequence analysis was undertaken in which we compared costs to the health system and to individuals with the trial's co-primary outcomes of psychological morbidity and participant satisfaction with information received. Psychological morbidity, psychosocial needs, patient satisfaction and quality of life did not differ between arms. Patients randomised to telephone follow-up underwent more and longer consultations. There was no difference in total health service mean per patient costs at 6 months (mean difference £8, 95% percentile confidence interval: - £147 to £141) or 12 months (mean difference: - £77, 95% percentile confidence interval: - £334 to £154). Estimated return journey costs per patient for hospital consultations were £11.47. Productivity costs were approximately twice as high under hospital follow-up. Telephone follow-up was estimated to be cost-neutral for the NHS and may free up clinic time for other patients. There was some evidence that telephone follow-up may be more efficient for patients and wider society, and is not associated with additional psychological morbidity, lower patient satisfaction or reduced quality of life. ISRCTN: 75220876, prospectively registered 28 October 2011.

Intrauterine fetal death and risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery.

PubMed

Larsen, Sandra; Dobbin, Joanna; McCallion, Oliver; Eskild, Anne

2016-12-01

Vaginal delivery is recommended after intrauterine fetal death. However, little is known about the risk of shoulder dystocia in these deliveries. We studied whether intrauterine fetal death increases the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery. In this population-based register study using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, we included all singleton pregnancies with vaginal delivery of offspring in cephalic presentation in Norway during the period 1967-2012 (n = 2 266 118). Risk of shoulder dystocia was estimated as absolute risk (%) and odds ratio with 95% confidence interval. Adjustment was made for offspring birthweight (in grams). We performed sub-analyses within categories of birthweight (<4000 and ≥4000 g) and in pregnancies with maternal diabetes. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 1.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 0.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.0001) (crude odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.9). After adjustment for birthweight, the odds ratio was 5.9 (95% confidence interval 4.7-7.4). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g, shoulder dystocia occurred in 14.6% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and in 2.8% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 4.5-7.9). In pregnancies with birthweight ≥4000 g and concurrent maternal diabetes, shoulder dystocia occurred in 57.1% of pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death and 9.6% of pregnancies without intrauterine fetal death (p < 0.001) (crude odds ratio 12.6, 95% confidence interval 5.9-26.9). Intrauterine fetal death increased the risk of shoulder dystocia at delivery, and the absolute risk of shoulder dystocia was particularly high if offspring birthweight was high and the mother had diabetes. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Educational achievement among long-term survivors of congenital heart defects: a Danish population-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Olsen, Morten; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Mortensen, Laust H; Christensen, Thomas D; Sørensen, Henrik T; Pedersen, Lars

2011-04-01

Congenital heart defect patients may experience neurodevelopmental impairment. We investigated their educational attainments from basic schooling to higher education. Using administrative databases, we identified all Danish patients with a cardiac defect diagnosis born from 1 January, 1977 to 1 January, 1991 and alive at age 13 years. As a comparison cohort, we randomly sampled 10 persons per patient. We obtained information on educational attainment from Denmark's Database for Labour Market Research. The study population was followed until achievement of educational levels, death, emigration, or 1 January, 2006. We estimated the hazard ratio of attaining given educational levels, conditional on completing preceding levels, using discrete-time Cox regression and adjusting for socio-economic factors. Analyses were repeated for a sub-cohort of patients and controls born at term and without extracardiac defects or chromosomal anomalies. We identified 2986 patients. Their probability of completing compulsory basic schooling was approximately 10% lower than that of control individuals (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.79, ranged from 0.75 to 0.82 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.82). Their subsequent probability of completing secondary school was lower than that of the controls, both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.86). The probability of attaining a higher degree, conditional on completion of youth education, was affected both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.01) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.07). The probability of educational attainment was reduced among long-term congenital heart defect survivors.

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2012-01-01

The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Suicidal Behavior Among Female Sex Workers in Goa, India: The Silent Epidemic

PubMed Central

Wayal, Sonali; Cowan, Frances; Mabey, David; Copas, Andrew; Patel, Vikram

2009-01-01

Objectives. We sought to study suicidal behavior prevalence and its association with social and gender disadvantage, sex work, and health factors among female sex workers in Goa, India. Methods. Using respondent-driven sampling, we recruited 326 sex workers in Goa for an interviewer-administered questionnaire regarding self-harming behaviors, sociodemographics, sex work, gender disadvantage, and health. Participants were tested for sexually transmitted infections. We used multivariate analysis to define suicide attempt determinants. Results. Nineteen percent of sex workers in the sample reported attempted suicide in the past 3 months. Attempts were independently associated with intimate partner violence (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.38, 5.28), violence from others (AOR = 2.26; 95% CI = 1.15, 4.45), entrapment (AOR = 2.76; 95% CI = 1.11, 6.83), regular customers (AOR = 3.20; 95% CI = 1.61, 6.35), and worsening mental health (AOR = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.11). Lower suicide attempt likelihood was associated with Kannad ethnicity, HIV prevention services, and having a child. Conclusions. Suicidal behaviors among sex workers were common and associated with gender disadvantage and poor mental health. India's widespread HIV-prevention programs for sex workers provide an opportunity for community-based interventions against gender-based violence and for mental health services delivery. PMID:19443819

The Relation of Source Credibility and Message Frequency to Program Evaluation and Self-Confidence of Students in a Job Shadowing Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linnehan, Frank

2004-01-01

Using a pre- and post-test design, this study examined the relation of an adult's credibility and message frequency to the beliefs of female high school students participating in a job-shadowing program. Hypotheses were based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model of attitude formation and change. Findings indicate that credibility of the adult…

Calf and replacement heifer mortality from birth until weaning in pasture-based dairy herds in New Zealand.

PubMed

Cuttance, E L; Mason, W A; McDermott, J; Laven, R A; McDougall, S; Phyn, C V C

2017-10-01

The aims of this study were to (1) estimate the perinatal (birth to 24 h) and postnatal (∼24 h to the mean weaning age of 13 wk) mortality risk in pasture-based dairy calves until weaning, and (2) identify associated risk factors in the 2015 calving season. A prospective survey of 32 seasonal calving dairy farms was undertaken. Farmers recorded (daily) the number and sex of the calves alive or dead in the paddocks where cows calved. All daily animal movements in and out of the calf rearing facilities, including death and euthanasia, and the identification of the animals (if applicable) were recorded, and a survey of the farm management practices was undertaken. Individual and farm-level risk factors for perinatal mortality were modeled separately using generalized logistic mixed models with a random effect fitted for herd. Postnatal mortality incidence risk was calculated using time at risk for each calf from 24 h of age, collapsed into weeks, and multiplying the incidence risk by the mean weaning age of the study population. Farm-level risk factors contributing to postnatal mortality in the first week of life were assessed using a multivariable logistic mixed regression model. The mean perinatal mortality risk was 5.7% (95% confidence interval 5.4 to 6.1%) with a range from 2.2 to 8.6% (18,437 calves, 30 farms). Perinatal calf mortality was greater for male relative to female calves (odds ratio 1.39; 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 1.59), calves born in the first week of the calving period in comparison to wk 2 to 11 (odds ratio 0.32 to 0.66), and those born on days with greater rainfall (odds ratio 1.01 per 1 mm increase; 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.02). At the farm level, perinatal mortality increased for every extra week of calving period length (odds ratio 1.12; 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.17). The mean postnatal mortality risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.6 to 4.6%) with a range of 0 to 11% between farms. Farm-level risk factors contributing to mortality in the first week of life included farmer-reported disease problems in calves (odds ratio 2.2; 95% confidence interval 1.62 to 2.96), or calves hand-fed colostrum in the first 12 h of life (odds ratio 1.66; 95% confidence interval 1.26 to 2.19), which was assumed to be associated with poor colostrum quality and bacterial contamination. Regional differences were also observed in both perinatal and postnatal mortality risks, indicating that weather conditions, herd size, and management variations contribute to mortality incidence. In summary, the mortality risk of perinatal calves and postnatal calves until weaning on pasture-based farms is comparable with data published from other dairying systems despite the notable management differences. Several risk factors were identified that could be managed to reduce mortality incidence of dairy calves. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dark matter as a trigger for periodic comet impacts.

PubMed

Randall, Lisa; Reece, Matthew

2014-04-25

Although statistical evidence is not overwhelming, possible support for an approximately 35×106  yr periodicity in the crater record on Earth could indicate a nonrandom underlying enhancement of meteorite impacts at regular intervals. A proposed explanation in terms of tidal effects on Oort cloud comet perturbations as the Solar System passes through the galactic midplane is hampered by lack of an underlying cause for sufficiently enhanced gravitational effects over a sufficiently short time interval and by the time frame between such possible enhancements. We show that a smooth dark disk in the galactic midplane would address both these issues and create a periodic enhancement of the sort that has potentially been observed. Such a disk is motivated by a novel dark matter component with dissipative cooling that we considered in earlier work. We show how to evaluate the statistical evidence for periodicity by input of appropriate measured priors from the galactic model, justifying or ruling out periodic cratering with more confidence than by evaluating the data without an underlying model. We find that, marginalizing over astrophysical uncertainties, the likelihood ratio for such a model relative to one with a constant cratering rate is 3.0, which moderately favors the dark disk model. Our analysis furthermore yields a posterior distribution that, based on current crater data, singles out a dark matter disk surface density of approximately 10M⊙/pc2. The geological record thereby motivates a particular model of dark matter that will be probed in the near future.

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Fetal and neonatal outcomes of preterm infants born before 32 weeks of gestation according to antenatal vs postnatal assessments of restricted growth.

PubMed

Monier, Isabelle; Ancel, Pierre-Yves; Ego, Anne; Jarreau, Pierre-Henri; Lebeaux, Cécile; Kaminski, Monique; Goffinet, François; Zeitlin, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Fetal growth restriction is defined using ultrasound parameters during pregnancy or as a low birthweight for gestational age after birth, but these definitions are not always concordant. The purpose of this study was to investigate fetal and neonatal outcomes based on antenatal vs postnatal assessments of growth restriction. From the EPIPAGE 2 population-based prospective study of very preterm births in France in 2011, we included 2919 singleton nonanomalous infants 24-31 weeks gestational age. We constituted 4 groups based on whether the infant was suspected with fetal growth restriction during pregnancy and/or was small for gestational age with a birthweight <10th percentile of intrauterine norms by sex: 1) suspected with fetal growth restriction/small for gestational age 2) not suspected with fetal growth restriction/small for gestational age 3) suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small for gestational age and 4) not suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small for gestational age. We estimated relative risks of perinatal mortality and morbidity for these groups adjusting for maternal and neonatal characteristics. We found that 22.2% of infants were suspected with fetal growth restriction/small for gestational age, that 11.4% infants were not suspected with fetal growth restriction/small for gestational age, that 3.0% infants were suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small for gestational age, and that 63.4% infants were not suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small for gestational age. Compared with infants who were not suspected with fetal growth restriction/not small-for-gestational-age infants, small-for-gestational-age infants suspected and not suspected with fetal growth restriction had higher risks of stillbirth or termination of pregnancy (adjusted relative risk, 2.0 [95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.5] and adjusted relative risk, 2.8 [95% confidence interval, 2.2-3.4], respectively), in-hospital death (adjusted relative risk, 2.8 [95% confidence interval, 2.0-3.7] and adjusted relative risk, 2.0 [95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.8], respectively), and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (adjusted relative risk, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.4] and adjusted relative risk, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.4], respectively), but not severe brain lesions. Risks were not increased for infants suspected with fetal growth restriction but not small-for-gestational-age. Antenatal and postnatal assessments of fetal growth restriction were not concordant for 14% of very preterm infants. In these cases, birthweight appears to be the more relevant parameter for the identification of infants with higher risks of adverse short-term outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Supplement: “The Rate of Binary Black Hole Mergers Inferred from Advanced LIGO Observations Surrounding GW150914” (2016, ApJL, 833, L1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C. J.; Berger, B. K.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bogan, C.; Bohe, A.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, C.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conte, A.; Conti, L.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D’Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Darman, N. S.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H. P.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dereli, H.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Engels, W.; Essick, R. C.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H. A. G.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gatto, A.; Gaur, G.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Gendre, B.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gordon, N. A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hofman, D.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huang, S.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Islas, G.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jang, H.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; K, Haris; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Kéfélian, F.; Kehl, M. S.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, C.; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Kim, Nam-Gyu; Kim, Namjun; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Kokeyama, K.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B. M.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Luo, J.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D. J.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Neri, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; O’Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O’Reilly, B.; O’Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Patrick, Z.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Porter, E. K.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S. S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Setyawati, Y.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shah, S.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, N. D.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strauss, N. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wesels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, G.; Yablon, J.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, H.; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2016-12-01

This article provides supplemental information for a Letter reporting the rate of (BBH) coalescences inferred from 16 days of coincident Advanced LIGO observations surrounding the transient (GW) signal GW150914. In that work we reported various rate estimates whose 90% confidence intervals fell in the range 2–600 Gpc‑3 yr‑1. Here we give details on our method and computations, including information about our search pipelines, a derivation of our likelihood function for the analysis, a description of the astrophysical search trigger distribution expected from merging BBHs, details on our computational methods, a description of the effects and our model for calibration uncertainty, and an analytic method for estimating our detector sensitivity, which is calibrated to our measurements.

The beta Burr type X distribution properties with application.

PubMed

Merovci, Faton; Khaleel, Mundher Abdullah; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Shitan, Mahendran

2016-01-01

We develop a new continuous distribution called the beta-Burr type X distribution that extends the Burr type X distribution. The properties provide a comprehensive mathematical treatment of this distribution. Further more, various structural properties of the new distribution are derived, that includes moment generating function and the rth moment thus generalizing some results in the literature. We also obtain expressions for the density, moment generating function and rth moment of the order statistics. We consider the maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the parameters. Additionally, the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters are derived from the Fisher information matrix. Finally, simulation study is carried at under varying sample size to assess the performance of this model. Illustration the real dataset indicates that this new distribution can serve as a good alternative model to model positive real data in many areas.

Relationship between healthcare worker surface contacts, care type and hand hygiene: an observational study in a single-bed hospital ward.

PubMed

King, M-F; Noakes, C J; Sleigh, P A; Bale, S; Waters, L

2016-09-01

This study quantifies the relationship between hand hygiene and the frequency with which healthcare workers (HCWs) touch surfaces in patient rooms. Surface contacts and hand hygiene were recorded in a single-bed UK hospital ward for six care types. Surface contacts often formed non-random patterns, but hygiene before or after patient contact depends significantly on care type (P=0.001). The likelihood of hygiene correlated with the number of surface contacts (95% confidence interval 1.1-5.8, P=0.002), but not with time spent in the room. This highlights that a potential subconscious need for hand hygiene may have developed in HCWs, which may support and help focus future hygiene education programmes. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Real-world effectiveness of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir in 4,365 treatment-naive, genotype 1 hepatitis C-infected patients.

PubMed

Backus, Lisa I; Belperio, Pamela S; Shahoumian, Troy A; Loomis, Timothy P; Mole, Larry A

2016-08-01

Real-world effectiveness data are needed to inform hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment decisions. The uptake of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) regimens across health care settings has been rapid, but variations often occur in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to assess sustained virologic response (SVR) of LDV/SOF±ribavirin (RBV) in routine medical practice. This observational, intent-to-treat cohort was comprised of 4,365 genotype 1, treatment-naive, HCV-infected veterans treated with LDV/SOF±RBV. SVR rates were 91.3% (3,191/3,495) for LDV/SOF and 92.0% (527/573) for LDV/SOF+RBV (P = 0.65). African American race (odds ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.54-0.90, P  = 0.004) and FIB-4 >3.25 (odds ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.43-0.71, P < 0.001) were independently associated with decreased likelihood of SVR; age, sex, body mass index, decompensated liver disease, diabetes, genotype 1 subtype, and regimen did not predict SVR. In models limited to those who completed 12 weeks of treatment, African American race was no longer a significant predictor of SVR but FIB-4 >3.25 (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.24-0.50, P < 0.001) remained. Among those without cirrhosis (defined by FIB-4 ≤3.25) and with baseline HCV RNA<6,000,000 IU/mL, SVR rates were 93.2% (1,020/1,094) for those who completed 8 weeks of therapy and 96.6% (875/906) for those who completed 12 weeks of therapy (P = 0.001). In this real-world cohort, SVR rates with LDV/SOF±RBV nearly matched the rates reported in clinical trials and were consistently high across all subgroups; those without cirrhosis but with HCV RNA<6,000,000 IU/mL were less likely to achieve SVR with 8 weeks compared to 12 weeks of therapy, although the numeric difference in SVR rates was small. (Hepatology 2016;64:405-414). Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Interval stability for complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Kirillov, Sergey; Kurths, Jürgen; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.

2018-04-01

Stability of dynamical systems against strong perturbations is an important problem of nonlinear dynamics relevant to many applications in various areas. Here, we develop a novel concept of interval stability, referring to the behavior of the perturbed system during a finite time interval. Based on this concept, we suggest new measures of stability, namely interval basin stability (IBS) and interval stability threshold (IST). IBS characterizes the likelihood that the perturbed system returns to the stable regime (attractor) in a given time. IST provides the minimal magnitude of the perturbation capable to disrupt the stable regime for a given interval of time. The suggested measures provide important information about the system susceptibility to external perturbations which may be useful for practical applications. Moreover, from a theoretical viewpoint the interval stability measures are shown to bridge the gap between linear and asymptotic stability. We also suggest numerical algorithms for quantification of the interval stability characteristics and demonstrate their potential for several dynamical systems of various nature, such as power grids and neural networks.

Confidence Intervals for Squared Semipartial Correlation Coefficients: The Effect of Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2010-01-01

The increase in the squared multiple correlation coefficient ([delta]R[superscript 2]) associated with a variable in a regression equation is a commonly used measure of importance in regression analysis. Algina, Keselman, and Penfield found that intervals based on asymptotic principles were typically very inaccurate, even though the sample size…

Pleural Touch Preparations and Direct Visualization of the Pleura during Medical Thoracoscopy for the Diagnosis of Malignancy.

PubMed

Grosu, Horiana B; Vial-Rodriguez, Macarena; Vakil, Erik; Casal, Roberto F; Eapen, George A; Morice, Rodolfo; Stewart, John; Sarkiss, Mona G; Ost, David E

2017-08-01

During diagnostic thoracoscopy, talc pleurodesis after biopsy is appropriate if the probability of malignancy is sufficiently high. Findings on direct visual assessment of the pleura during thoracoscopy, rapid onsite evaluation (ROSE) of touch preparations (touch preps) of thoracoscopic biopsy specimens, and preoperative imaging may help predict the likelihood of malignancy; however, data on the performance of these methods are limited. To assess the performance of ROSE of touch preps, direct visual assessment of the pleura during thoracoscopy, and preoperative imaging in diagnosing malignancy. Patients who underwent ROSE of touch preps during thoracoscopy for suspected malignancy were retrospectively reviewed. Malignancy was diagnosed on the basis of final pathologic examination of pleural biopsy specimens. ROSE results were categorized as malignant, benign, or atypical cells. Visual assessment results were categorized as tumor studding present or absent. Positron emission tomography (PET) and computed tomography (CT) findings were categorized as abnormal or normal pleura. Likelihood ratios were calculated for each category of test result. The study included 44 patients, 26 (59%) with a final pathologic diagnosis of malignancy. Likelihood ratios were as follows: for ROSE of touch preps: malignant, 1.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-4.34); atypical cells, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.21-2.27); benign, 0.11 (95% CI, 0.01-0.93); for direct visual assessment: tumor studding present, 3.63 (95% CI, 1.32-9.99); tumor studding absent, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09-0.64); for PET: abnormal pleura, 9.39 (95% CI, 1.42-62); normal pleura, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11-0.52); and for CT: abnormal pleura, 13.15 (95% CI, 1.93-89.63); normal pleura, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.15-0.54). A finding of no malignant cells on ROSE of touch preps during thoracoscopy lowers the likelihood of malignancy significantly, whereas finding of tumor studding on direct visual assessment during thoracoscopy only moderately increases the likelihood of malignancy. A positive finding on PET and/or CT increases the likelihood of malignancy significantly in a moderate-risk patient group and can be used as an adjunct to predict malignancy before pleurodesis.

Value of contrast-enhanced ultrasound in differential diagnosis of solid lesions of pancreas (SLP): A systematic review and a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ran, Li; Zhao, Wenli; Zhao, Ye; Bu, Huaien

2017-07-01

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) is considered a novel method for diagnosing pancreatic cancer, but currently, there is no conclusive evidence of its accuracy. Using CEUS in discriminating between pancreatic carcinoma and other pancreatic lesions, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of CEUS in predicting pancreatic tumours. Relevant studies were selected from the PubMed, Cochrane Library, Elsevier, CNKI, VIP, and WANFANG databases dating from January 2006 to May 2017. The following terms were used as keywords: "pancreatic cancer" OR "pancreatic carcinoma," "contrast-enhanced ultrasonography" OR "contrast-enhanced ultrasound" OR "CEUS," and "diagnosis." The selection criteria are as follows: pancreatic carcinomas diagnosed by CEUS while the main reference standard was surgical pathology or biopsy (if it involved a clinical diagnosis, particular criteria emphasized); SonoVue or Levovist was the contrast agent; true positive, false positive, false negative, and true negative rates were obtained or calculated to construct the 2 × 2 contingency table; English or Chinese articles; at least 20 patients were enrolled in each group. The Quality Assessment for Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy was employed to evaluate the quality of articles. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, summary receiver-operating characteristic curves, and the area under curve were evaluated to estimate the overall diagnostic efficiency. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with fixed-effect models. Eight of 184 records were eligible for a meta-analysis after independent scrutinization by 2 reviewers. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratios were 0.86 (95% CI 0.81-0.90), 0.75 (95% CI 0.68-0.82), 3.56 (95% CI 2.64-4.78), 0.19 (95% CI 0.13-0.27), and 22.260 (95% CI 8.980-55.177), respectively. The area under the SROC curve was 0.9088. CEUS has a satisfying pooled sensitivity and specificity for discriminating pancreatic cancer from other pancreatic lesions.

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

pplacer: linear time maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic placement of sequences onto a fixed reference tree

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Likelihood-based phylogenetic inference is generally considered to be the most reliable classification method for unknown sequences. However, traditional likelihood-based phylogenetic methods cannot be applied to large volumes of short reads from next-generation sequencing due to computational complexity issues and lack of phylogenetic signal. "Phylogenetic placement," where a reference tree is fixed and the unknown query sequences are placed onto the tree via a reference alignment, is a way to bring the inferential power offered by likelihood-based approaches to large data sets. Results This paper introduces pplacer, a software package for phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization. The algorithm can place twenty thousand short reads on a reference tree of one thousand taxa per hour per processor, has essentially linear time and memory complexity in the number of reference taxa, and is easy to run in parallel. Pplacer features calculation of the posterior probability of a placement on an edge, which is a statistically rigorous way of quantifying uncertainty on an edge-by-edge basis. It also can inform the user of the positional uncertainty for query sequences by calculating expected distance between placement locations, which is crucial in the estimation of uncertainty with a well-sampled reference tree. The software provides visualizations using branch thickness and color to represent number of placements and their uncertainty. A simulation study using reads generated from 631 COG alignments shows a high level of accuracy for phylogenetic placement over a wide range of alignment diversity, and the power of edge uncertainty estimates to measure placement confidence. Conclusions Pplacer enables efficient phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization, making likelihood-based phylogenetics methodology practical for large collections of reads; it is freely available as source code, binaries, and a web service. PMID:21034504

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li

With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman filter (EKF) can be used as an integrated adaptive learning and confidence interval estimation algorithm for neural networks, with fast convergence and small confidence intervals. However, EKF learning is computationally expensive because it involves high dimensional matrix manipulations. A modified U-D factorization within the decoupled EKF (DEKF-UD) framework is developed in this research. The computational efficiency and numerical stability are significantly improved.

To be involved or not to be involved: a survey of public preferences for self-involvement in decision-making involving mental capacity (competency) within Europe.

PubMed

Daveson, Barbara A; Bausewein, Claudia; Murtagh, Fliss E M; Calanzani, Natalia; Higginson, Irene J; Harding, Richard; Cohen, Joachim; Simon, Steffen T; Deliens, Luc; Bechinger-English, Dorothee; Hall, Sue; Koffman, Jonathan; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Haugen, Dagny F; Gomes, Barbara

2013-05-01

The Council of Europe has recommended that member states of European Union encourage their citizens to make decisions about their healthcare before they lose capacity to do so. However, it is unclear whether the public wants to make such decisions beforehand. To examine public preferences for self-involvement in end-of-life care decision-making and identify associated factors. A population-based survey with 9344 adults in England, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Across countries, 74% preferred self-involvement when capable; 44% preferred self-involvement when incapable through, for example, a living will. Four factors were associated with a preference for self-involvement across capacity and incapacity scenarios, respectively: higher educational attainment ((odds ratio = 1.93-2.77), (odds ratio = 1.33-1.80)); female gender ((odds ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.14-1.41), (odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-1.42)); younger-middle age ((30-59 years: odds ratio = 1.24-1.40), (50-59 years: odds ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.46)) and valuing quality over quantity of life or valuing both equally ((odds ratio = 1.49-1.58), (odds ratio = 1.35-1.53)). Those with increased financial hardship (odds ratio = 0.64-0.83) and a preference to die in hospital (not a palliative care unit) (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.88), a nursing home or residential care (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% confidence interval = 0.54-0.99) were less likely to prefer self-involvement when capable. For the incapacity scenario, single people were more likely to prefer self-involvement (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.53). Self-involvement in decision-making is important to the European public. However, a large proportion of the public prefer to not make decisions about their care in advance of incapacity. Financial hardship, educational attainment, age, and preferences regarding quality and quantity of life require further examination; these factors should be considered in relation to policy.

Circulating tocopherols and risk of coronary artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Guangxiao; Li, Ying; Chen, Xin; Sun, Hao; Hou, Xiaowen; Shi, Jingpu

2016-05-01

Circulating level of tocopherols was supposed to be associated with risk of coronary artery disease. However, the results from previous studies remain controversial. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis based on observational studies to evaluate the association between circulating tocopherols and coronary artery disease risk for the first time. Meta-analysis. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched to retrieve articles published during January 1995 and May 2015. Articles were included if they provided sufficient information to calculate the weighted mean difference and its corresponding 95% confidence interval. Circulating level of total tocopherols was significantly lower in coronary artery disease patients than that in controls (weighted mean difference -4.33 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -6.74 to -1.91, P < 0.01). However, circulating α-tocopherol alone was not significantly associated with coronary artery disease risk. Results from subgroup analyses showed that a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was merely associated with higher coronary artery disease risk in studies with higher sex ratio in cases (<2, weighted mean difference -0.07 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -1.15 to 1.00, P = 0.90; ≥ 2, weighted mean difference -6.00 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.76 to -2.22, P < 0.01). Similarly, a lower level of circulating total tocopherols was associated with early onset coronary artery disease rather than late onset coronary artery disease (<60 years, weighted mean difference -5.40 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -9.22 to -1.57, P < 0.01; ≥ 60 years, weighted mean difference -1.37 μmol/l, 95% confidence interval -3.48 to 0.74, P = 0.20). We also found some discrepancies in circulating total tocopherols when the studies were stratified by matching status and assay methods. Our findings suggest that a deficiency in circulating total tocopherols might be associated with higher coronary artery disease risk. Whereas circulating α-tocopherol alone could not protect us from developing coronary artery disease. Further prospective studies were warranted to confirm our findings. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Aortic stiffness and the balance between cardiac oxygen supply and demand: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Guelen, Ilja; Mattace-Raso, Francesco Us; van Popele, Nicole M; Westerhof, Berend E; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline Cm; Bos, Willem Jan W

2008-06-01

Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether aortic stiffness, estimated as aortic pulse wave velocity, is associated with decreased perfusion pressure estimated as the cardiac oxygen supply potential. Aortic stiffness and aortic pressure waves, reconstructed from finger blood pressure waves, were obtained in 2490 older adults within the framework of the Rotterdam Study, a large population-based study. Cardiac oxygen supply and demand were estimated using pulse wave analysis techniques, and related to aortic stiffness by linear regression analyses after adjustment for age, sex, mean arterial pressure and heart rate. Cardiac oxygen demand, estimated as the Systolic Pressure Time Index and the Rate Pressure Product, increased with increasing aortic stiffness [0.27 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: 0.21; 0.34)] and [42.2 mmHg/min (95% confidence interval: 34.1; 50.3)], respectively. Cardiac oxygen supply potential estimated as the Diastolic Pressure Time Index decreased [-0.70 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: -0.86; -0.54)] with aortic stiffening. Accordingly, the supply/demand ratio Diastolic Pressure Time Index/Systolic Pressure Time Index -1.11 (95% confidence interval: -0.14; -0.009) decreased with increasing aortic stiffness. Aortic stiffness is associated with estimates of increased cardiac oxygen demand and a decreased cardiac oxygen supply potential. These results may offer additional explanation for the relation between aortic stiffness and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Traffic-related air pollution: Exposure and health effects in Copenhagen street cleaners and cemetery workers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raaschou-Nielsen, O.; Nielsen, M.L.; Gehl, J.

This questionaire-based study found a significantly higher prevalence of chronic bronchitis, asthma, and several other symptoms in 116 Copenhagen street cleaners who were exposed to traffic-related air pollution at levels that were slightly lower than the 1987 World Health Organization-recommended threshold values, compared with 115 Copenhagen cemetery workers exposed to lower pollution levels. Logistic regression analysis, controlling for age and smoking, was conducted, and odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to be 2.5 for chronic bronchitis (95% confidence interval = 1.2-5.1), 2.3 for asthma (95% confidence interval = 1.0-5.1), and 1.8-7.9 for other symptoms (95% confidence interval =more » 1.0-28.2). Except for exposure to air pollution, the two groups were comparable, i.e., they had similar terms of employment and working conditions. the exposure ranges during an 8-h work day, averaged from readings taken at five monitored street positions, were: 41-257 ppb nitric oxide (1-h max: 865 ppb); 23-43 ppb nitrogen dioxide (1-h max: 208 ppb); 1.0-4.3 ppm carbon monoxide (8-h max: 7.1 ppm); 14-28 ppb sulfur dioxide (1-h max; 112 ppb); and 10-38 ppb ozone (1-h max: 72 ppb). 33 refs., 7 tabs.« less

Emergency Department Triage of Traumatic Head Injury Using a Brain Electrical Activity Biomarker: A Multisite Prospective Observational Validation Trial.

PubMed

Hanley, Daniel; Prichep, Leslie S; Bazarian, Jeffrey; Huff, J Stephen; Naunheim, Rosanne; Garrett, John; Jones, Elizabeth B; Wright, David W; O'Neill, John; Badjatia, Neeraj; Gandhi, Dheeraj; Curley, Kenneth C; Chiacchierini, Richard; O'Neil, Brian; Hack, Dallas C

2017-05-01

A brain electrical activity biomarker for identifying traumatic brain injury (TBI) in emergency department (ED) patients presenting with high Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) after sustaining a head injury has shown promise for objective, rapid triage. The main objective of this study was to prospectively evaluate the efficacy of an automated classification algorithm to determine the likelihood of being computed tomography (CT) positive, in high-functioning TBI patients in the acute state. Adult patients admitted to the ED for evaluation within 72 hours of sustaining a closed head injury with GCS 12 to 15 were candidates for study. A total of 720 patients (18-85 years) meeting inclusion/exclusion criteria were enrolled in this observational, prospective validation trial, at 11 U.S. EDs. GCS was 15 in 97%, with the first and third quartiles being 15 (interquartile range = 0) in the study population at the time of the evaluation. Standard clinical evaluations were conducted and 5 to 10 minutes of electroencephalogram (EEG) was acquired from frontal and frontal-temporal scalp locations. Using an a priori derived EEG-based classification algorithm developed on an independent population and applied to this validation population prospectively, the likelihood of each subject being CT+ was determined, and performance metrics were computed relative to adjudicated CT findings. Sensitivity of the binary classifier (likely CT+ or CT-) was 92.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 87.8%-95.5%) for detection of any intracranial injury visible on CT (CT+), with specificity of 51.6% (95% CI = 48.1%-55.1%) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.0% (95% CI = 93.2%-97.9%). Using ternary classification (likely CT+, equivocal, likely CT-) demonstrated enhanced sensitivity to traumatic hematomas (≥1 mL of blood), 98.6% (95% CI = 92.6%-100.0%), and NPV of 98.2% (95% CI = 95.5%-99.5%). Using an EEG-based biomarker high accuracy of predicting the likelihood of being CT+ was obtained, with high NPV and sensitivity to any traumatic bleeding and to hematomas. Specificity was significantly higher than standard CT decision rules. The short time to acquire results and the ease of use in the ED environment suggests that EEG-based classifier algorithms have potential to impact triage and clinical management of head-injured patients. © 2017 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Association of Urinary Calcium Excretion with Serum Calcium and Vitamin D Levels

PubMed Central

Rathod, Anita; Bonny, Olivier; Guessous, Idris; Suter, Paolo M.; Conen, David; Erne, Paul; Binet, Isabelle; Gabutti, Luca; Gallino, Augusto; Muggli, Franco; Hayoz, Daniel; Péchère-Bertschi, Antoinette; Paccaud, Fred

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Population-based data on urinary calcium excretion are scarce. The association of serum calcium and circulating levels of vitamin D [25(OH)D2 or D3] with urinary calcium excretion in men and women from a population-based study was explored. Design, settings, participants, & measurements Multivariable linear regression was used to explore factors associated with square root–transformed 24-hour urinary calcium excretion (milligrams per 24 hours) taken as the dependent variable with a focus on month-specific vitamin D tertiles and serum calcium in the Swiss Survey on Salt Study. Results In total, 624 men and 669 women were studied with mean ages of 49.2 and 47.0 years, respectively (age range=15–95 years). Mean urinary calcium excretion was higher in men than in women (183.05 versus 144.60 mg/24 h; P<0.001). In adjusted models, the association (95% confidence interval) of square root urinary calcium excretion with protein–corrected serum calcium was 1.78 (95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 2.34) mg/24 h per milligram per deciliter in women and 0.59 (95% confidence interval, −0.11 to 1.29) mg/24 h per milligram per deciliter in men. Men in the third 25(OH)D3 tertile had higher square root urinary calcium excretion than men in the first tertile (0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 1.63 mg/24 h per nanogram per milliliter), and the corresponding association was 0.32 (95% confidence interval, −0.22 to 0.85) mg/24 h per nanogram per milliliter in women. These sex differences were more marked under conditions of high urinary sodium or urea excretions. Conclusions There was a positive association of serum calcium with urinary calcium excretion in women but not men. Vitamin 25(OH)D3 was associated with urinary calcium excretion in men but not women. These results suggest important sex differences in the hormonal and dietary control of urinary calcium excretion. PMID:25518946

Thyroid cancer incidence among Asian immigrants to Ontario, Canada: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Shah, Baiju R; Griffiths, Rebecca; Hall, Stephen F

2017-09-01

The highest rates of thyroid cancer are observed in Pacific Island nations as well as Australia and Asian countries bordering the Pacific. The objective of this study was to determine the risk for thyroid cancer among immigrants to Canada from Southeast and East Asia compared with immigrants from other regions and nonimmigrants. This was a population-based, longitudinal cohort study using health care administrative data to examine all residents of Ontario without pre-existing thyroid cancer. Individuals were followed from January 1997 or 5 years after they became eligible for health care coverage in Ontario, whichever came later. Patients were followed until March 2015 for incident-differentiated thyroid cancer, and then for recurrence. The study followed 14,659,733 individuals for a median of 17 years. Thyroid cancer incidence was 43.8 cases per 100,000 person-years among Southeast Asian immigrants, 28.6 cases per 100,000 person-years among East Asian immigrants, 21.5 cases per 100,000 person-years among other immigrants, and 14.5 cases per 100,000 person-years among nonimmigrants. Incidence was highest among immigrants from the Philippines (52.7 cases per 100,000 person-years), South Korea (33.5 cases per 100,000 person-years), and China (30.0 cases per 100,000 person-years). Adjusted hazard ratios for thyroid cancer compared with nonimmigrants were 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.48-2.84) for Southeast Asian immigrants, 1.87 (95% confidence interval, 1.75-2.00) for East Asian immigrants, and 1.51 (95% confidence interval, 1.45-1.57) for other immigrants. Immigrants were more likely to have papillary histology and stage I cancer. East Asian immigrants, but not Southeast Asian immigrants, had a lower risk of recurrence (hazard ratio, 0.73 [95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.94] and 1.01 [95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.26], respectively). Immigrants from Southeast and East Asia had markedly higher thyroid cancer incidence than nonimmigrants. At particularly elevated risk were immigrants from the Philippines, South Korea, and China. Cancer 2017;123:3320-5. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Randomized trials published in some Chinese journals: how many are randomized?

PubMed

Wu, Taixiang; Li, Youping; Bian, Zhaoxiang; Liu, Guanjian; Moher, David

2009-07-02

The approximately 1100 medical journals now active in China are publishing a rapidly increasing number of research reports, including many studies identified by their authors as randomized controlled trials. It has been noticed that these reports mostly present positive results, and their quality and authenticity have consequently been called into question. We investigated the adequacy of randomization of clinical trials published in recent years in China to determine how many of them met acceptable standards for allocating participants to treatment groups. The China National Knowledge Infrastructure electronic database was searched for reports of randomized controlled trials on 20 common diseases published from January 1994 to June 2005. From this sample, a subset of trials that appeared to have used randomization methods was selected. Twenty-one investigators trained in the relevant knowledge, communication skills and quality control issues interviewed the original authors of these trials about the participant randomization methods and related quality-control features of their trials. From an initial sample of 37,313 articles identified in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database, we found 3137 apparent randomized controlled trials. Of these, 1452 were studies of conventional medicine (published in 411 journals) and 1685 were studies of traditional Chinese medicine (published in 352 journals). Interviews with the authors of 2235 of these reports revealed that only 207 studies adhered to accepted methodology for randomization and could on those grounds be deemed authentic randomized controlled trials (6.8%, 95% confidence interval 5.9-7.7). There was no statistically significant difference in the rate of authenticity between randomized controlled trials of traditional interventions and those of conventional interventions. Randomized controlled trials conducted at hospitals affiliated to medical universities were more likely to be authentic than trials conducted at level 3 and level 2 hospitals (relative risk 1.58, 95% confidence interval 1.18-2.13, and relative risk 14.42, 95% confidence interval 9.40-22.10, respectively). The likelihood of authenticity was higher in level 3 hospitals than in level 2 hospitals (relative risk 9.32, 95% confidence interval 5.83-14.89). All randomized controlled trials of pre-market drug clinical trial were authentic by our criteria. Of the trials conducted at university-affiliated hospitals, 56.3% were authentic (95% confidence interval 32.0-81.0). Most reports of randomized controlled trials published in some Chinese journals lacked an adequate description of randomization. Similarly, most so called 'randomized controlled trials' were not real randomized controlled trials owing to a lack of adequate understanding on the part of the authors of rigorous clinical trial design. All randomized controlled trials of pre-market drug clinical trial included in this research were authentic. Randomized controlled trials conducted by authors in high level hospitals, especially in hospitals affiliated to medical universities had a higher rate of authenticity. That so many non-randomized controlled trials were published as randomized controlled trials reflected the fact that peer review needs to be improved and a good practice guide for peer review including how to identify the authenticity of the study urgently needs to be developed.

Randomized trials published in some Chinese journals: how many are randomized?

PubMed Central

Wu, Taixiang; Li, Youping; Bian, Zhaoxiang; Liu, Guanjian; Moher, David

2009-01-01

Background The approximately 1100 medical journals now active in China are publishing a rapidly increasing number of research reports, including many studies identified by their authors as randomized controlled trials. It has been noticed that these reports mostly present positive results, and their quality and authenticity have consequently been called into question. We investigated the adequacy of randomization of clinical trials published in recent years in China to determine how many of them met acceptable standards for allocating participants to treatment groups. Methods The China National Knowledge Infrastructure electronic database was searched for reports of randomized controlled trials on 20 common diseases published from January 1994 to June 2005. From this sample, a subset of trials that appeared to have used randomization methods was selected. Twenty-one investigators trained in the relevant knowledge, communication skills and quality control issues interviewed the original authors of these trials about the participant randomization methods and related quality-control features of their trials. Results From an initial sample of 37,313 articles identified in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database, we found 3137 apparent randomized controlled trials. Of these, 1452 were studies of conventional medicine (published in 411 journals) and 1685 were studies of traditional Chinese medicine (published in 352 journals). Interviews with the authors of 2235 of these reports revealed that only 207 studies adhered to accepted methodology for randomization and could on those grounds be deemed authentic randomized controlled trials (6.8%, 95% confidence interval 5.9–7.7). There was no statistically significant difference in the rate of authenticity between randomized controlled trials of traditional interventions and those of conventional interventions. Randomized controlled trials conducted at hospitals affiliated to medical universities were more likely to be authentic than trials conducted at level 3 and level 2 hospitals (relative risk 1.58, 95% confidence interval 1.18–2.13, and relative risk 14.42, 95% confidence interval 9.40–22.10, respectively). The likelihood of authenticity was higher in level 3 hospitals than in level 2 hospitals (relative risk 9.32, 95% confidence interval 5.83–14.89). All randomized controlled trials of pre-market drug clinical trial were authentic by our criteria. Of the trials conducted at university-affiliated hospitals, 56.3% were authentic (95% confidence interval 32.0–81.0). Conclusion Most reports of randomized controlled trials published in some Chinese journals lacked an adequate description of randomization. Similarly, most so called 'randomized controlled trials' were not real randomized controlled trials owing toa lack of adequate understanding on the part of the authors of rigorous clinical trial design. All randomized controlled trials of pre-market drug clinical trial included in this research were authentic. Randomized controlled trials conducted by authors in high level hospitals, especially in hospitals affiliated to medical universities had a higher rate of authenticity. That so many non-randomized controlled trials were published as randomized controlled trials reflected the fact that peer review needs to be improved and a good practice guide for peer review including how to identify the authenticity of the study urgently needs to be developed. PMID:19573242

Asymptotic confidence intervals for the Pearson correlation via skewness and kurtosis.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Li, Jiexiang; Nash, Thomas

2018-02-01

When bivariate normality is violated, the default confidence interval of the Pearson correlation can be inaccurate. Two new methods were developed based on the asymptotic sampling distribution of Fisher's z' under the general case where bivariate normality need not be assumed. In Monte Carlo simulations, the most successful of these methods relied on the (Vale & Maurelli, 1983, Psychometrika, 48, 465) family to approximate a distribution via the marginal skewness and kurtosis of the sample data. In Simulation 1, this method provided more accurate confidence intervals of the correlation in non-normal data, at least as compared to no adjustment of the Fisher z' interval, or to adjustment via the sample joint moments. In Simulation 2, this approximate distribution method performed favourably relative to common non-parametric bootstrap methods, but its performance was mixed relative to an observed imposed bootstrap and two other robust methods (PM1 and HC4). No method was completely satisfactory. An advantage of the approximate distribution method, though, is that it can be implemented even without access to raw data if sample skewness and kurtosis are reported, making the method particularly useful for meta-analysis. Supporting information includes R code. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Pancreatic β-Cell Function and Prognosis of Nondiabetic Patients With Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Pan, Yuesong; Chen, Weiqi; Jing, Jing; Zheng, Huaguang; Jia, Qian; Li, Hao; Zhao, Xingquan; Liu, Liping; Wang, Yongjun; He, Yan; Wang, Yilong

2017-11-01

Pancreatic β-cell dysfunction is an important factor in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study aimed to estimate the association between β-cell dysfunction and prognosis of nondiabetic patients with ischemic stroke. Patients with ischemic stroke without a history of diabetes mellitus in the ACROSS-China (Abnormal Glucose Regulation in Patients with Acute Stroke across China) registry were included. Disposition index was estimated as computer-based model of homeostatic model assessment 2-β%/homeostatic model assessment 2-insulin resistance based on fasting C-peptide level. Outcomes included stroke recurrence, all-cause death, and dependency (modified Rankin Scale, 3-5) at 12 months after onset. Among 1171 patients, 37.2% were women with a mean age of 62.4 years. At 12 months, 167 (14.8%) patients had recurrent stroke, 110 (9.4%) died, and 184 (16.0%) had a dependency. The first quartile of the disposition index was associated with an increased risk of stroke recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.57; 95% confidence interval, 2.13-5.99) and dependency (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-4.38); both the first and second quartiles of the disposition index were associated with an increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.09; 95% confidence interval, 2.51-10.33; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-5.03) compared with the fourth quartile. Using a multivariable regression model with restricted cubic spline, we observed an L-shaped association between the disposition index and the risk of each end point. In this large-scale registry, β-cell dysfunction was associated with an increased risk of 12-month poor prognosis in nondiabetic patients with ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk of Psoriasis Following Terbinafine or Itraconazole Treatment for Onychomycosis: A Population-Based Case-Control Comparative Study.

PubMed

Chiu, Hsien-Yi; Chang, Wei-Lun; Tsai, Tsen-Fang; Tsai, Yi-Wen; Shiu, Ming-Neng

2018-03-01

Several case studies have reported an association between antifungal drug use and psoriasis risk. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between terbinafine/itraconazole exposure and psoriasis incidence. Among patients with onychomycosis in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, 3831 incident psoriasis cases were identified during 2004-2010 and compared with 3831 age- and sex-matched controls with the same look-back period. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used for the analysis. The psoriasis cases were significantly more likely than matched controls to have used terbinafine or itraconazole (59.85 vs. 42.70%, respectively; p < 0.0001). After adjusting for potential confounders and cumulative duration of antifungal drug prescription, terbinafine/itraconazole use was associated with an increased psoriasis risk (adjusted odds ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.54). The association was stronger for more recent drug exposure (adjusted odds ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.25-3.90 for ≤ 90 days before the sampling date; adjusted odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.89-1.22 for > 360 days). In a comparison of patients receiving terbinafine or itraconazole only, psoriasis risk was higher for itraconazole (adjusted odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.40). This large population-based case-control analysis showed that exposure to terbinafine or itraconazole is associated with an increased risk of incident psoriasis. The finding of an increased psoriasis risk for antifungal drug users, particularly for itraconazole, deserves attention in clinical practice although further prospective studies are necessary to confirm our findings and clarify the biological mechanisms that underlie these associations.

Individual and System Contributions to Race and Sex Disparities in Thrombolysis Use for Stroke Patients in the United States.

PubMed

Faigle, Roland; Urrutia, Victor C; Cooper, Lisa A; Gottesman, Rebecca F

2017-04-01

Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) is underutilized in ethnic minorities and women. To disentangle individual and system-based factors determining disparities in IVT use, we investigated race/sex differences in IVT utilization among hospitals serving varying proportions of minority patients. Ischemic stroke admissions were identified from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample between 2007 and 2011. Hospitals were categorized based on the percentage of minority patients admitted with stroke (<25% minority patients [white hospitals], 25% to 50% minority patients [mixed hospitals], or >50% minority patients [minority hospitals]). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between race/sex and IVT use within and between the different hospital strata. Among 337 201 stroke admissions, white men had the highest odds of IVT among all race/sex groups in any hospital strata, and the odds of IVT for white men did not differ by hospital strata. For white women and minority men, the odds of IVT were significantly lower in minority hospitals compared with white hospitals (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97, for white women; and odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.99, for minority men). Race disparities in IVT use among women were observed in white hospitals (odds ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.99, in minority compared with white women), but not in minority hospitals (odds ratio, 0.94, 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.09). Sex disparities in IVT use were observed among whites but not among minorities. Minority men and white women have significantly lower odds of IVT in minority hospitals compared with white hospitals. IVT use in white men does not differ by hospital strata. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Two-year population-based molecular epidemiological study of tuberculosis transmission in the metropolitan area of Milan, Italy.

PubMed

Moro, M L; Salamina, G; Gori, A; Penati, V; Sacchetti, R; Mezzetti, F; Infuso, A; Sodano, L

2002-02-01

A 2-year, population-based, molecular epidemiological study was conducted in Milan, Italy, to determine the proportion of tuberculosis (TB) cases attributable to recent transmission. All strains were typed by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis; clustering was considered indicative of recent transmission. Of the 581 cases, 239 (41.1%) belonged to clusters that consisted of 2 to 11 patients; 28.1% were attributable to recent transmission (number of clustered patients minus 1). Clustering was associated with multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains (74.2% of cases), AIDS (60.2%), and a history of incarceration (67.4%). The frequency of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis was 5.3% overall (15.4% among AIDS patients). Among AIDS patients, infection with a resistant strain was independently associated with clustering (odds ratio, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.163), while among non-AIDS patients, three factors were associated with clustering: history of incarceration (odds ratio, 2.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-2.92), age <30 years (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.94), and native-born Italian nationality (odds ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.92). Of the 118 patients who belonged to either the smallest or the largest cluster, 19 (16.1%) reported an epidemiological link with another study patient. The results of this study highlight the need for control programs that focus on selected high-risk groups consisting primarily of HIV-infected individuals and persons with social and lifestyle risks for TB. These programs should be aimed at reducing the probability of transmission of drug-resistant TB through early identification of cases and provision of effective treatment until the individual is cured.

Trends and determinants of condom use in Uganda.

PubMed

De Coninck, Zaake; Marrone, Gaetano

2012-01-01

Documenting trends in condom use and exploring factors associated with their utilization are important for broadening the information base for the design of HIV intervention programs. This paper aims to document Uganda's nationwide trends in condom use from 1995 to 2006 and seeks to understand some of the socio-demographic variables that may be associated with their use, using Uganda Demographic Health Surveys (UDHSs). Data from UDHSs conducted in 1995, 2000/2001 and 2006 were analyzed. Socio-demographic variables as well as 'survey year' were selected to assess their interaction with condom use. Multivariate regression analyses were performed. Odds ratios and confidence intervals were computed. Socio-demographic factors such as being male and living in an urban setting were significantly associated with an increased likelihood of reported use of condoms. All results indicated a far greater increase in condom use between 1995 and 2000/2001 than between 2000/2001 and 2006. Policies need to intensify condom use campaigns especially among women and rural populations. The wane in increase in condom use between 2000/2001 and 2006 may be due to the large-scale influx of antiretrovirals (starting in 2004) which may be lowering the anxiety associated with the social construct of HIV/AIDS.

Treatment selection in a randomized clinical trial via covariate-specific treatment effect curves.

PubMed

Ma, Yunbei; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2017-02-01

For time-to-event data in a randomized clinical trial, we proposed two new methods for selecting an optimal treatment for a patient based on the covariate-specific treatment effect curve, which is used to represent the clinical utility of a predictive biomarker. To select an optimal treatment for a patient with a specific biomarker value, we proposed pointwise confidence intervals for each covariate-specific treatment effect curve and the difference between covariate-specific treatment effect curves of two treatments. Furthermore, to select an optimal treatment for a future biomarker-defined subpopulation of patients, we proposed confidence bands for each covariate-specific treatment effect curve and the difference between each pair of covariate-specific treatment effect curve over a fixed interval of biomarker values. We constructed the confidence bands based on a resampling technique. We also conducted simulation studies to evaluate finite-sample properties of the proposed estimation methods. Finally, we illustrated the application of the proposed method in a real-world data set.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire's internal consistency was moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.56). The pilot-phase shows promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility. Pilot randomised controlled trial results indicate that the patient information is well understood and that knowledge gain on confidence intervals can be assessed with a set of six questions. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00008561 . Registered 8th of June 2015.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Software for illustrative presentation of basic clinical characteristics of laboratory tests--GraphROC for Windows.

PubMed

Kairisto, V; Poola, A

1995-01-01

GraphROC for Windows is a program for clinical test evaluation. It was designed for the handling of large datasets obtained from clinical laboratory databases. In the user interface, graphical and numerical presentations are combined. For simplicity, numerical data is not shown unless requested. Relevant numbers can be "picked up" from the graph by simple mouse operations. Reference distributions can be displayed by using automatically optimized bin widths. Any percentile of the distribution with corresponding confidence limits can be chosen for display. In sensitivity-specificity analysis, both illness- and health-related distributions are shown in the same graph. The following data for any cutoff limit can be shown in a separate click window: clinical sensitivity and specificity with corresponding confidence limits, positive and negative likelihood ratios, positive and negative predictive values and efficiency. Predictive values and clinical efficiency of the cutoff limit can be updated for any prior probability of disease. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves can be generated and combined into the same graph for comparison of several different tests. The area under the curve with corresponding confidence interval is calculated for each ROC curve. Numerical results of analyses and graphs can be printed or exported to other Microsoft Windows programs. GraphROC for Windows also employs a new method, developed by us, for the indirect estimation of health-related limits and change limits from mixed distributions of clinical laboratory data.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Impact of Prior Platinum-Based Therapy on Patients Receiving Salvage Systemic Treatment for Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma.

PubMed

Sonpavde, G; Pond, G R; Di Lorenzo, G; Buonerba, C; Rozzi, A; Lanzetta, G; Necchi, A; Giannatempo, P; Raggi, D; Matsumoto, K; Choueiri, T K; Mullane, S; Niegisch, G; Albers, P; Lee, J L; Kitamura, H; Kume, H; Bellmunt, J

2016-12-01

Trials of salvage therapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma have required prior platinum-based therapy. This practice requires scrutiny because non-platinum-based first-line therapy may be offered to cisplatin-ineligible patients. Data of patients receiving salvage systemic chemotherapy were collected. Data on prior first-line platinum exposure were required in addition to treatment-free interval, hemoglobin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, albumin, and liver metastasis status. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate their association with overall survival (OS) after accounting for salvage single-agent or combination chemotherapy. Data were obtained from 455 patients previously exposed to platinum-based therapy and 37 not exposed to platinum. In the group exposed to prior platinum therapy, salvage therapy consisted of a single-agent taxane (n = 184) or a taxane-containing combination chemotherapy (n = 271). In the group not exposed to prior platinum therapy, salvage therapy consisted of taxane or vinflunine (n = 20), 5-fluorouracil (n = 1), taxane-containing combination chemotherapy (n = 12), carboplatin-based combinations (n = 2), and cisplatin-based combinations (n = 2). The median OS for the prior platinum therapy group was 7.8 months (95% confidence interval, 7.0, 8.1), and for the group that had not received prior platinum therapy was 9.0 months (95% confidence interval, 6.0, 11.0; P = .50). In the multivariable analysis, prior platinum therapy versus no prior platinum exposure did not confer an independent impact on OS (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.75, 1.64; P = .62). Prior platinum- versus non-platinum-based chemotherapy did not have a prognostic impact on OS after accounting for major prognostic factors in patients receiving salvage systemic chemotherapy for advanced urothelial carcinoma. Lack of prior platinum therapy should not disqualify patients from inclusion onto trials of salvage therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relation between amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and inorganic selenium in drinking water: a population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A community in northern Italy was previously reported to have an excess incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis among residents exposed to high levels of inorganic selenium in their drinking water. Methods To assess the extent to which such association persisted in the decade following its initial observation, we conducted a population-based case-control study encompassing forty-one newly-diagnosed cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and eighty-two age- and sex-matched controls. We measured long-term intake of inorganic selenium along with other potentially neurotoxic trace elements. Results We found that consumption of drinking water containing ≥ 1 μg/l of inorganic selenium was associated with a relative risk for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis of 5.4 (95% confidence interval 1.1-26) after adjustment for confounding factors. Greater amounts of cumulative inorganic selenium intake were associated with progressively increasing effects, with a relative risk of 2.1 (95% confidence interval 0.5-9.1) for intermediate levels of cumulative intake and 6.4 (95% confidence interval 1.3-31) for high intake. Conclusion Based on these results, coupled with other epidemiologic data and with findings from animal studies that show specific toxicity of the trace element on motor neurons, we hypothesize that dietary intake of inorganic selenium through drinking water increases the risk for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. PMID:21134276

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy: Impact on Prices, Spending, and Surgical Complications.

PubMed

Robinson, James C; Brown, Timothy T; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J

2015-09-16

Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, -24.9% to -9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, -29.3% to -2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Consumer Choice Between Hospital-Based and Freestanding Facilities for Arthroscopy

PubMed Central

Robinson, James C.; Brown, Timothy T.; Whaley, Christopher; Bozic, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Background: Hospital-based outpatient departments traditionally charge higher prices for ambulatory procedures, compared with freestanding surgery centers. Under emerging reference-based benefit designs, insurers establish a contribution limit that they will pay, requiring the patient to pay the difference between that contribution limit and the actual price charged by the facility. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical outcomes for orthopaedic procedures performed at ambulatory surgery centers. Methods: We obtained data on 3962 patients covered by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) who underwent arthroscopy of the knee or shoulder in the three years prior to the implementation of reference-based benefits in January 2012 and on 2505 patients covered by CalPERS who underwent arthroscopy in the two years after implementation. Control group data were obtained on 57,791 patients who underwent arthroscopy and were not subject to reference-based benefits. The impact of reference-based benefits on consumer choices between hospital-based and freestanding facilities, facility prices, employer spending, and surgical complications was assessed with use of difference-in-differences multivariable regressions to adjust for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and geographic location. Results: By the second year of the program, the shift to reference-based benefits was associated with an increase in the utilization of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers by 14.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 8.1 to 20.5 percentage points) for knee arthroscopy and by 9.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 3.2 to 16.7 percentage points) for shoulder arthroscopy and a corresponding decrease in the use of hospital-based facilities. The mean price paid by CalPERS fell by 17.6% (95% confidence interval, −24.9% to −9.6%) for knee procedures and by 17.0% (95% confidence interval, −29.3% to −2.5%) for shoulder procedures. The shift to reference-based benefits was not associated with a change in the rate of surgical complications. In the first two years after the implementation of reference-based benefits, CalPERS saved $2.3 million (13%) on these two orthopaedic procedures. Conclusions: Reference-based benefits increase consumer sensitivity to price differences between freestanding and hospital-based surgical facilities. Clinical Relevance: This study shows that the implementation of reference-based benefits does not result in a significant increase in measured complication rates for those subject to reference-based benefits. PMID:26378263

Invasive adenocarcinoma with bronchoalveolar features: a population-based evaluation of the extent of resection in bronchoalveolar cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Whitson, Bryan A; Groth, Shawn S; Andrade, Rafael S; Mitiek, Mohi O; Maddaus, Michael A; D'Cunha, Jonathan

2012-03-01

We used a population-based data set to assess the association between the extent of pulmonary resection for bronchoalveolar carcinoma and survival. The reports thus far have been limited to small, institutional series. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1988-2007), we identified patients with bronchoalveolar carcinoma who had undergone wedge resection, segmentectomy, or lobectomy. The bronchoalveolar carcinoma histologic findings were mucinous, nonmucinous, mixed, not otherwise specified, and alveolar carcinoma. To adjust for potential confounders, we used a Cox proportional hazards regression model. A total of 6810 patients met the inclusion criteria. Compared with the sublobar resections (wedge resections and segmentectomies), lobectomy conferred superior 5-year overall (59.5% vs 43.9%) and cancer-specific (67.1% vs 53.1%) survival (P < .0001). After adjusting for potential confounding patient and tumor characteristics, we found that patients who underwent an anatomic resection had significantly better overall (segmentectomy: hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.81; lobectomy: hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.57) and cancer-specific (segmentectomy: hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.75; lobectomy: hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.53) survival compared with patients who underwent wedge resection. Additionally, gender, race, tumor size, and degree of tumor de-differentiation were negative prognostic factors. Our results were unchanged when we limited our analysis to early-stage disease. Using a population-based data set, we found that anatomic resections for bronchoalveolar carcinoma conferred superior overall and cancer-specific survival rates compared with wedge resection. Bronchoalveolar carcinoma's propensity for intraparenchymal spread might be the underlying biologic basis of our observation of improved survival after anatomic resection. Copyright © 2012 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

PubMed

Cochrane, Shannon K; Chen, Shyh-Huei; Fitzgerald, Jodi D; Dodson, John A; Fielding, Roger A; King, Abby C; McDermott, Mary M; Manini, Todd M; Marsh, Anthony P; Newman, Anne B; Pahor, Marco; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Ambrosius, Walter T; Buford, Thomas W

2017-12-02

Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500 steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P =0.001). At baseline, every 30 minutes spent performing activities ≥500 counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [ P =0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24 months), both the number of steps per day (per 500 steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [ P =0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500 counts per minute (per 30 minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [ P =0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score >10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Generalized Bootstrap Method for Assessment of Uncertainty in Semivariogram Inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Pardo-Iguzquiza, E.

2011-01-01

The semivariogram and its related function, the covariance, play a central role in classical geostatistics for modeling the average continuity of spatially correlated attributes. Whereas all methods are formulated in terms of the true semivariogram, in practice what can be used are estimated semivariograms and models based on samples. A generalized form of the bootstrap method to properly model spatially correlated data is used to advance knowledge about the reliability of empirical semivariograms and semivariogram models based on a single sample. Among several methods available to generate spatially correlated resamples, we selected a method based on the LU decomposition and used several examples to illustrate the approach. The first one is a synthetic, isotropic, exhaustive sample following a normal distribution, the second example is also a synthetic but following a non-Gaussian random field, and a third empirical sample consists of actual raingauge measurements. Results show wider confidence intervals than those found previously by others with inadequate application of the bootstrap. Also, even for the Gaussian example, distributions for estimated semivariogram values and model parameters are positively skewed. In this sense, bootstrap percentile confidence intervals, which are not centered around the empirical semivariogram and do not require distributional assumptions for its construction, provide an achieved coverage similar to the nominal coverage. The latter cannot be achieved by symmetrical confidence intervals based on the standard error, regardless if the standard error is estimated from a parametric equation or from bootstrap. ?? 2010 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

Assessing compatibility of direct detection data: halo-independent global likelihood analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gelmini, Graciela B.; Huh, Ji-Haeng; Witte, Samuel J.

2016-10-18

We present two different halo-independent methods to assess the compatibility of several direct dark matter detection data sets for a given dark matter model using a global likelihood consisting of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Gaussian or Poisson likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function (we prove that it is a unique piecewise constant function with a number of down steps smaller than or equal to a maximum number that we compute) and construct a two-sided pointwise confidence band at any desired confidence level, which can then be comparedmore » with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a “constrained parameter goodness-of-fit” test statistic, whose p-value we then use to define a “plausibility region” (e.g. where p≥10%). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. p<10%). We illustrate these methods by applying them to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic spin-independent isospin-conserving interactions or exothermic spin-independent isospin-violating interactions.« less

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.