Science.gov

Sample records for linear temperature trends

  1. Coastal ocean climatology of temperature and salinity off the Southern California Bight: Seasonal variability, climate index correlation, and linear trend

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Sung Yong; Cornuelle, Bruce D.

    2015-11-01

    A coastal ocean climatology of temperature and salinity in the Southern California Bight is estimated from conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) and bottle sample profiles collected by historical California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) cruises (1950-2009; quarterly after 1984) off southern California and quarterly/monthly nearshore CTD surveys (within 30 km from the coast except for the surfzone; 1999-2009) off San Diego and Los Angeles. As these fields are sampled regularly in space, but not in time, conventional Fourier analysis may not be possible. The time dependent temperature and salinity fields are modeled as linear combinations of an annual cycle and its five harmonics, as well as three standard climate indices (El Niňo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)), the Scripps Pier temperature time series, and a mean and linear trend without time lags. Since several of the predictor indices are correlated, the indices are successively orthogonalized to eliminate ambiguity in the identification of the contributed variance of each component. Regression coefficients are displayed in both vertical transects and horizontal maps to evaluate (1) whether the temporal and spatial scales of the two data sets of nearshore and offshore observations are consistent and (2) how oceanic variability at a regional scale is related to variability in the nearshore waters. The data-derived climatology can be used to identify anomalous events and atypical behaviors in regional-scale oceanic variability and to provide background ocean estimates for mapping or modeling.

  2. Trends in stratospheric temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, M. R.; Newman, P. A.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Angell, J.; Barnett, J.; Boville, B. A.; Chandra, S.; Fels, S.; Fleming, E.; Gelman, M.

    1989-01-01

    Stratospheric temperatures for long-term and recent trends and the determination of whether observed changes in upper stratospheric temperatures are consistent with observed ozone changes are discussed. The long-term temperature trends were determined up to 30mb from radiosonde analysis (since 1970) and rocketsondes (since 1969 and 1973) up to the lower mesosphere, principally in the Northern Hemisphere. The more recent trends (since 1979) incorporate satellite observations. The mechanisms that can produce recent temperature trends in the stratosphere are discussed. The following general effects are discussed: changes in ozone, changes in other radiatively active trace gases, changes in aerosols, changes in solar flux, and dynamical changes. Computations were made to estimate the temperature changes associated with the upper stratospheric ozone changes reported by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus-7 and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instruments.

  3. Ozone and temperature trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stolarski, Richard S.; Fioletov, Vitali; Bishop, Lane; Godin, Sophie; Bojkov, Rumen D.; Kirchhoff, Volker; Chanin, Marie-Lise; Zawodny, Joseph M.; Zerefos, Christos S.; Chu, William

    1991-01-01

    An update of the extensive reviews of the state of knowledge of measured ozone trends published in the Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel is presented. The update contains a review of progress since these reports, including reviewing of the ozone records, in most cases through March 1991. Also included are some new, unpublished reanalyses of these records including a complete reevaluation of 29 stations located in the former Soviet Union. The major new advance in knowledge of the measured ozone trend is the existence of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAG) instruments. These confirm many of the findings, originally derived from the Dobson record, concerning northern mid-latitude changes in ozone. We now have results from several instruments, whereas the previously reported changes were dependent on the calibration of a single instrument. This update will compare the ozone records from many different instruments to determine whether or not they provide a consistent picture of the ozone change that has occurred in the atmosphere. The update also briefly considers the problem of stratospheric temperature change. As in previous reports, this problem received significantly less attention, and the report is not nearly as complete. This area needs more attention in the future.

  4. Temperature trend biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    In an accompanying talk we show that well-homogenized national dataset warm more than temperatures from global collections averaged over the region of common coverage. In this poster we want to present auxiliary work about possible biases in the raw observations and on how well relative statistical homogenization can remove trend biases. There are several possible causes of cooling biases, which have not been studied much. Siting could be an important factor. Urban stations tend to move away from the centre to better locations. Many stations started inside of urban areas and are nowadays more outside. Even for villages the temperature difference between the centre and edge can be 0.5°C. When a city station moves to an airport, which often happened around WWII, this takes the station (largely) out of the urban heat island. During the 20th century the Stevenson screen was established as the dominant thermometer screen. This screen protected the thermometer much better against radiation than earlier designs. Deficits of earlier measurement methods have artificially warmed the temperatures in the 19th century. Newer studies suggest we may have underestimated the size of this bias. Currently we are in a transition to Automatic Weather Stations. The net global effect of this transition is not clear at this moment. Irrigation on average decreases the 2m-temperature by about 1 degree centigrade. At the same time, irrigation has increased significantly during the last century. People preferentially live in irrigated areas and weather stations serve agriculture. Thus it is possible that there is a higher likelihood that weather stations are erected in irrigated areas than elsewhere. In this case irrigation could lead to a spurious cooling trend. In the Parallel Observations Science Team of the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI-POST) we are studying influence of the introduction of Stevenson screens and Automatic Weather Stations using parallel measurements

  5. Temperature Trends in Montane Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melack, J. M.; Sadro, S.; Jellison, R.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term temperature trends in lakes integrate hydrological and meteorological factors. We examine temperature trends in a small montane lake with prolonged ice-cover and large seasonal snowfall and in a large saline lake. Emerald Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada (California), is representative of high-elevation lakes throughout the region. No significant trend in outflow temperature was apparent from 1991to 2012. Snowfall in the watershed accounted for 93% of the variability in average summer lake temperatures. Mono Lake (California) lies in a closed, montane basin and is hypersaline and monomictic or meromictic. Temperature profiles have been collected from 1982 to 2010. In the upper water column, the July-August-September water temperatures increased 0.8-1.0°C over the 29 years. This rate of warming is less than published estimates based on satellite-derived skin temperatures and will discussed in the context of general limnological interpretation of temperature trends.

  6. Soil temperature trends in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    2011-04-01

    Global warming increasingly is becoming a concern for society. Most reported warming trends are based on measured increases in air temperatures. However, trends in soil temperatures, also an important indicator of climate change, are less often reported. Qian et al. analyzed soil temperature data from 30 climate stations across Canada covering the period from 1958 to 2008; the data cover soil temperatures at several depths up to 150 centimeters. They also analyzed air temperature, precipitation, and snow cover depth at the same locations. (Journal of Geophysical Research­Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2010JD015012, 2011)

  7. Temperature trends in the midlatitude summer mesosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.; Baumgarten, G.

    2013-12-01

    We have performed trend studies in the mesosphere in the period 1961-2009 with Leibniz-Institute Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis below approximately 40 km and adapts temporal variations of CO2 and O3 according to observations. Temperatures in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere vary nonuniformly with time, mainly due to the influence of O3. Here we analyze the contribution of varying concentrations of CO2 and O3 to the temperature trend in the mesosphere. It is important to distinguish between trends on pressure altitudes, zp, and geometrical altitudes, zgeo, where the latter includes the effect of shrinking due to cooling at lower heights. For the period 1961-2009, temperature trends on geometrical and pressure altitudes can differ by as much as -0.9 K/dec in the mesosphere. Temperature trends reach approximately -1.3±0.11 K/dec at zp˜60 km and -1.8±0.18 K/dec at zgeo˜70 km, respectively. CO2 is the main driver of these trends in the mesosphere, whereas O3 contributes approximately one third, both on geometrical and pressure heights. Depending on the time period chosen, linear temperature trends can vary substantially. Altitudes of pressure levels in the mesosphere decrease by up to several hundred meters. We have performed long-term runs with LIMA applying twentieth century reanalysis dating back to 1871. Again, trends are nonuniform with time. Since the late nineteenth century, temperatures in the mesosphere have dropped by approximately 5-7 K on pressure altitudes and up to 10-12 K on geometrical altitudes.

  8. Temperature trends in the mesosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe

    2013-04-01

    We have performed trend studies in the mesosphere in the period 1961-2009 with LIMA (Leibniz-Institute Middle Atmosphere model) which is based on ECMWF below approximately 40 km and adapts temporal variations of CO2 and O3 according to observations. There is general agreement between LIMA and observations. Temperatures in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere vary non-uniformly with time, mainly due to the influence of ozone. We have therefore separated the influence of CO2(t) and O3(t) when determining trends. It is important to distinguish between trends on pressure altitudes, zp, and geometric altitudes, zgeo, where the latter includes the effect of shrinking due to cooling at lower heights. Maximum total temperature trends reach approximately -1,3 K/dec at zp ~60 km and -1.8 K/dec at zgeo ~70 km, respectively. Carbon dioxide is the main driver of these trends in the mesosphere, whereas ozone contributes approximately one third, both on geometric and pressure heights. Depending on the time period chosen, the ozone effect on trends can be significantly smaller or larger. Temperature trends on geometric and pressure altitudes can differ by as much as -0.9 K/dec in the mesosphere. The altitudes of pressure levels in the mesosphere decrease up to several hundred meters. The shift maximizes at mesopause levels where it accumulates to more than 1 km. Most of the shrinking occurs in the mesosphere and a smaller fraction (~20%) in the stratosphere. For the first time, we have performed long term runs with LIMA applying the 20th Century Reanalysis from NCEP/NCAR dating back to 1871. Again, trends are non-uniform with time. Since the late 19th century temperatures in the mesosphere have dropped by approximately 5-7 K on pressure altitudes, and up to 10-12 K on geometric altitudes. This is much more then typical trends in the troposphere and stratosphere. It is therefore justified to summarize that the mesosphere (at least in summer and at middle latitudes) reacts

  9. Estimating population trends with a linear model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

  10. Recent Inland Water Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hook, Simon; Healey, Nathan; Lenters, John; O'Reilly, Catherine

    2016-04-01

    We are using thermal infrared satellite data in conjunction with in situ measurements to produce water temperatures for all the large inland water bodies in North America and the rest of the world for potential use as climate indicator. Recent studies have revealed significant warming of inland waters throughout the world. The observed rate of warming is - in many cases - greater than that of the ambient air temperature. These rapid, unprecedented changes in inland water temperatures have profound implications for lake hydrodynamics, productivity, and biotic communities. Scientists are just beginning to understand the global extent, regional patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological consequences of lake warming. As part of our work we have collected thermal infrared satellite data from those satellite sensors that provide long-term and frequent spaceborne thermal infrared measurements of inland waters including ATSR, AVHRR, and MODIS and used these to examine trends in water surface temperature for approximately 169 of the largest inland water bodies in the world. We are now extending this work to generate temperature time-series of all North American inland water bodies that are sufficiently large to be studied using 1km resolution satellite data for the last 3 decades, approximately 268 lakes. These data are then being related to changes in the surface air temperature and compared with regional trends in water surface temperature derived from CMIP5/IPCC model simulations/projections to better predict future temperature changes. We will discuss the available datasets and processing methodologies together with the patterns they reveal based on recent changes in the global warming, with a particular focus on the inland waters of the southwestern USA.

  11. Dynamic contribution to hemispheric mean temperature trends

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, J.M.; Zhang, Y.; Renwick, J.A.

    1995-11-03

    On the basis of land station data from the Northern Hemisphere, it was determined that roughly half of the temporal variance of monthly mean hemispheric mean anomalies in surface air temperature during the period from 1900 through 1990 were linearly related to the amplitude of a distinctive spatial pattern in which the oceans are anomalously cold and the continents are anomalously warm poleward of 40 degrees north when the hemisphere is warm. Apart from an upward trend since 1975, to which El Nino has contributed, the amplitude time series associated with this pattern resembles seasonally dependent white noise. it is argued that the variability associated with this pattern is dynamically induced and is not necessarily an integral part of the fingerprint of global warming. 12 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Seawater temperature trends at Usa Tide Gauge sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maul, George A.; Davis, Andria M.; Simmons, Jeffrey W.

    Seawater temperatures have been measured at United States tide gauges throughout most of the 20th century. All available records have been digitized, and the longest 14 have been analyzed by linear least-square regression. The largest positive trend is from Boston MA (+3.6±0.4°C per century), and the largest negative trend is at Charleston SC (-0.1±0.3°C per century). No consistent latitudinal or east-coast vs. west-coast patterns are discernable, but air temperature trends are typically greater than seawater changes.

  13. Regime Changes in California Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero, E. C.; Kessomkiat, W.; Mauget, S.

    2008-12-01

    Annual and seasonal temperature trends are analyzed for California using surface data from the US Historical Climate Network and the larger COOP network. While trends in Tmax and Tmin both show warming over the last 50 years, the temporal and spatial structure of these trends is quite different. An analysis using Mann Whitney U statistics reveals that the patterns of warming and cooling from individual stations have a distinct temporal signature that differs between Tmax and Tmin. Significant cooling trends in Tmin are found between 1920-1958, while significant warming only starts after the 1970s. In contrast, Tmax trends show a more variable pattern of warming and cooling between 1920-1980, with California wide warming only occurring after 1980. These results suggest regime changes in California temperature trends that could only occur through large scale forcing. A discussion of the various forcing mechanisms contributing to California trends and their spatial and temporal variability will be presented.

  14. Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Boyle, J. S.; Gaffen, D. J.; Hnilo, J. J.; Nychka, D.; Parker, D. E.; Taylor, K. E.

    2000-03-01

    This paper examines trend uncertainties in layer-average free atmosphere temperatures arising from the use of different trend estimation methods. It also considers statistical issues that arise in assessing the significance of individual trends and of trend differences between data sets. Possible causes of these trends are not addressed. We use data from satellite and radiosonde measurements and from two reanalysis projects. To facilitate intercomparison, we compute from reanalyses and radiosonde data temperatures equivalent to those from the satellite-based Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU). We compare linear trends based on minimization of absolute deviations (LA) and minimization of squared deviations (LS). Differences are generally less than 0.05°C/decade over 1959-1996. Over 1979-1993, they exceed 0.10°C/decade for lower tropospheric time series and 0.15°C/decade for the lower stratosphere. Trend fitting by the LA method can degrade the lower-tropospheric trend agreement of 0.03°C/decade (over 1979-1996) previously reported for the MSU and radiosonde data. In assessing trend significance we employ two methods to account for temporal autocorrelation effects. With our preferred method, virtually none of the individual 1979-1993 trends in deep-layer temperatures are significantly different from zero. To examine trend differences between data sets we compute 95% confidence intervals for individual trends and show that these overlap for almost all data sets considered. Confidence intervals for lower-tropospheric trends encompass both zero and the model-projected trends due to anthropogenic effects. We also test the significance of a trend in d(t), the time series of differences between a pair of data sets. Use of d(t) removes variability common to both time series and facilitates identification of small trend differences. This more discerning test reveals that roughly 30% of the data set comparisons have significant differences in lower-tropospheric trends

  15. The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lian, Tao

    2016-04-01

    In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

  16. Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

    2015-01-01

    Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

  17. Trends in Surface Temperature from AIRS.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruzmaikin, A.; Aumann, H. H.

    2014-12-01

    To address possible causes of the current hiatus in the Earth's global temperature we investigate the trends and variability in the surface temperature using retrievals obtained from the measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and its companion instrument, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), onboard of Aqua spacecraft in 2002-2014. The data used are L3 monthly means on a 1x1degree spatial grid. We separate the land and ocean temperatures, as well as temperatures in Artic, Antarctic and desert regions. We find a monotonic positive trend for the land temperature but not for the ocean temperature. The difference in the regional trends can help to explain why the global surface temperature remains almost unchanged but the frequency of occurrence of the extreme events increases under rising anthropogenic forcing. The results are compared with the model studies. This work was supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  18. The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Thompson, David W J; Seidel, Dian J; Randel, William J; Zou, Cheng-Zhi; Butler, Amy H; Mears, Carl; Osso, Albert; Long, Craig; Lin, Roger

    2012-11-29

    A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979-2005 that is strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them. PMID:23192146

  19. Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends

    PubMed

    Cane; Clement; Kaplan; Kushnir; Pozdnyakov; Seager; Zebiak; Murtugudde

    1997-02-14

    An analysis of historical sea surface temperatures provides evidence for global warming since 1900, in line with land-based analyses of global temperature trends, and also shows that over the same period, the eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and the zonal sea surface temperature gradient strengthened. Recent theoretical studies have predicted such a pattern as a response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to an exogenous heating of the tropical atmosphere. This pattern, however, is not reproduced by the complex ocean-atmosphere circulation models currently used to simulate the climatic response to increased greenhouse gases. Its presence is likely to lessen the mean 20th-century global temperature change in model simulations. PMID:9020074

  20. Trends in Surface Temperature at High Latitudes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The earliest signal of a climate change is expected to be found in the polar regions where warming is expected to be amplified on account of ice-albedo feedbacks associated with the high reflectivity of snow and ice. Because of general inaccessibility, there is a general paucity of in situ data and hence the need to use satellite data to observe the large-scale variability and trends in surface temperature in the region. Among the most important sensors for monitoring surface temperature has been the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) which was first launched in 1978 and has provided continuous thermal infrared data since 1981. The top of the atmosphere data are converted to surface temperature data through various schemes that accounts for the unique atmospheric and surface conditions in the polar regions. Among the highest source of error in the data is cloud masking which is made more difficult in the polar region because of similar Signatures of clouds and snow lice covered areas. The availability of many more channels in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) launched on board Terra satellite in December 1999 and on board Aqua in May 2002 (e.g., 36 visible and infrared channels compared to 5 for AVHRR) made it possible to minimize the error. Further capabilities were introduced with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) which has the appropriate frequency channels for the retrieval of sea surface temperature (SST). The results of analysis of the data show an amplified warming in the Arctic region, compared with global warming. The spatial distribution of warming is, however, not uniform and during the last 3 decades, positive temperature anomalies have been most pronounced in North America, Greenland and the Arctic basin. Some regions of the Arctic such as Siberia and the Bering Sea surprisingly show moderate cooling but this may be because these regions were anomalously warm in the 1980s when the satellite record

  1. Precipitation and temperature changes in eastern India by multiple trend detection methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Chandra Shekhar; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Pradhan, Rudra P.; Singh, Amanpreet; Kawamura, Akira

    2016-11-01

    The present study deals with spatial and temporal trend analysis of precipitation and temperature (1970-2004) in eastern India. Long-term trend direction and magnitude of change over time (annual and seasonal) were detected and analyzed by Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, Least square linear regression, Spearman rank correlation and Sequential Mann-Kendall test. In addition to it, correlation analysis was also performed. Trend analysis of annual rainfall by different methods indicated similar annual trends in eastern India. North-eastern, south-eastern and western parts of eastern India indicated increasing trend, whereas the north-western, central and southern parts showed decreasing trend. A similar trend was observed by different methods in case of seasonal rainfall. During winter season, decreasing trend was observed in the central part, whereas similar results were obtained for pre-and post-monsoon in the western part. The trend during monsoon season was found similar to annual rainfall trend. Abrupt change in trend of rainfall with time was lacking in eastern India. Maximum temperature analysis indicated increasing trend in the western part for all the seasons (except in monsoon) and decreasing trend in the eastern part. On the contrary, increasing trend was observed in the eastern part and decreasing trend in the western half of the study area for all the seasons in case of minimum temperature. Significant changes were observed during monsoon season as compared to other seasons. A decreasing trend in mean temperature was observed in the central, southern and north western parts, whereas it was found to be increasing in the north-eastern, western and south-eastern parts. In majority of the eastern India region, any abrupt change of trend in temperatures with time was not clearly observed. Negative correlation between rainfall and maximum temperature was observed in the entire eastern India. Similar results were observed in case of minimum temperature

  2. Temperature Trends from Homogenized German Radiosonde Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Margit; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    We present homogenization procedure and results for Germany's historical radiosonde records, dating back to 1950. Upper-air temperature records have been homogenized manually. The method makes use of the different RS networks existing in East and West-Germany from the 1950s until 1990. The largest temperature adjustments, up to 2.5K, apply to Freiberg sondes used in the East in the 1950s and 1960s. Adjustments for Graw H50 and M60 sondes, used in the West from the 1950s to the late 1980s, and for RKZ sondes, used in the East in the 1970s and 1980s, are also significant, 0.3 to 0.5K. Small differences between Vaisala RS80 and RS92 sondes used throughout Germany since 1990 and 2005, respectively, were not corrected for at levels from the ground to 300 hPa. Comparison of the homogenized data with other radiosonde datasets, RICH and HadAT2, and with Microwave Sounding Unit satellite data, shows generally good agreement. HadAT2 data exhibit a few suspicious spikes in the 1970s and 1980s, and some suspicious offsets up to 1K after 1995. Compared to RICH, our homogenized data show slightly different temperatures in the 1960s and 1970s. We find that the troposphere over Germany has been warming by 0.25 ± 0.1K per decade since the early 1960s, slightly more than reported in other studies. The stratosphere has been cooling, with the trend increasing from almost no change near 230hPa (the tropopause) to -0.5 ± 0.2K per decade near 50hPa. Trends from the homogenized data are more positive by about 0.1K per decade than for the original data, both in troposphere and stratosphere.

  3. The Influence of Logger Bias on Reported Temperature Trends: Implications for Temperature Monitoring Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malcolm, I.; Fryer, R. J.; Bacon, P. J.; Stirling, D.

    2015-12-01

    There has been increasing interest in river temperature monitoring and research in recent years. This has been driven by factors including a greater awareness of the importance of river temperature for freshwater ecology, the potential for detrimental extremes under climate change and the availability of increasingly affordable dataloggers. A number of studies have attempted to collate and analyse pre-existing long-term (decadal) datasets to assess for evidence of temporal trends. These studies require considerable care given the magnitude of temporal trends (often < 1 degree per decade), the low signal to noise ratio in the data and the potential for bias across different makes, models and individual dataloggers. Despite these issues, data quality control often receives only a superficial consideration with subjective assessments of data quality or a reliance on manufacturer reported accuracy with consequences for the reliability and interpretation of findings. This study assessed the potential influence of logger bias on reported temperature trends in the Girnock Burn, Scotland over > 25 years. The bias of temperature measurements made by different dataloggers (two makes and five models) was determined through cross-calibration against a reference datalogger. Long-term trends in stream temperature metrics (daily mean, max, min) were characterised using Generalised Additive Mixed Models (GAMM). Models were fitted to (1) the raw data and (2) data corrected for logger bias. Significant non-linear temporal trends were observed in the raw data. These trends were accentuated when corrected for logger bias. Given the potential to accentuate or remove long-term trends, it is suggested that robust internal and external calibration and quality control procedures should be established for new temperature networks. Such approaches are capable of removing logger bias and improving accuracy by an order of magnitude over manufacturer stated values.

  4. Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Budong; Gregorich, Edward G.; Gameda, Sam; Hopkins, David W.; Wang, Xiaolan L.

    2011-01-01

    Trends in soil temperature are important, but rarely reported, indicators of climate change. On the basis of the soil temperature data from 30 climate stations across Canada during 1958-2008, trends in soil temperatures at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 150 cm depths were analyzed, together with atmospheric variables, such as air temperature, precipitation, and depth of snow on the ground, observed at the same locations. There was a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not for the winter and annual means. A positive trend with time in soil temperature was detected at about two-thirds of the stations at all depths below 5 cm. A warming trend of 0.26-0.30°C/decade was consistently detected in spring (March-April-May) at all depths between 1958 and 2008. The warming trend in soil temperatures was associated with trends in air temperatures and snow cover depth over the same period. A significant decreasing trend in snow cover depth in winter and spring was associated with increasing air temperatures. The combined effects of the higher air temperature and reduced snow depth probably resulted in an enhanced increasing trend in spring soil temperatures, but no significant trends in winter soil temperatures. The thermal insulation by snow cover appeared to play an important role in the response of soil temperatures to climate change and must be accounted for in projecting future soil-related impacts of climate change.

  5. Estimating population trends with a linear model: technical comments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

  6. Trends in high temperature gas turbine materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grisaffe, S. J.; Dreshfield, R. L.

    1981-01-01

    High performance - high technology materials are among the technologies that are required to allow the fruition of such improvements. Materials trends in hot section components are reviewed, and materials for future use are identified. For combustors, airfoils, and disks, a common trend of using multiple material construction to permit advances in technology is identified.

  7. Evaluation of rainfall and temperature trends in Brunei Darussalam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is acknowledged as the world's significant environmental predicament. Rainfall and temperature have been widely studied in correlation with climate change. This paper demonstrates the result of the trend analysis of rainfall variables over the period of 1984 to 2013 and temperature variables over the period of 1979 to 2013 in Brunei Darussalam. Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to analyse and detect trends for the variables. This study revealed that the observed rainfall has a statistically significant increasing trend with increasing rainfall duration and decreasing intensity. The annual rainfall has increased significantly at a rate of 26.16 mm per annum. Mann-Kendall test for rainfall data reveals an increasing trend at confidence level of 95% for the annual total rainfall and confidence of level 90% for of annual maximum rainfall. The observed temperature also exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend at a rate of 0.031°C per year. Results of Mann-Kendall test for temperature data indicate a positive trend at a confidence level of 99.9% for the annual average temperature, average day time temperature, minimum day time temperature, average night time temperature and minimum night time temperature and at a confidence level of 95% for maximum night time temperature. The progressive effect of both the observed rainfall and temperature changes will contribute to greater surfaces run off and create flooding problem. Too much rainfall will threaten slope stability while dry periods of increased temperature will cause soil erosion.

  8. Global patterns in lake surface temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Reilly, C.; Sharma, S.; Gray, D.; Hampton, S. E.; Read, J. S.; Rowley, R.; McIntyre, P. B.; Lenters, J. D.; Schneider, P.; Hook, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    Temperature profoundly affects dynamics in the water bodieson which human societies depend worldwide. Even relatively small water temperature changes can alter lake thermal structure with implications for water level, nutrient cycling, ecosystem productivity, and food web dynamics. As air temperature increases with climate change and human land use transforms watersheds, rising water temperatures have been reported for individual lakes or regions, but a global synthesis is lacking; such a synthesis is foundational for understanding the state of freshwater resources. We investigated global patterns in lake surface water temperatures between 1985 and 2009 using in-situ and satellite data from 236 lakes. We demonstrate that lakes are warming significantly around the globe, at an average rate of 0.34 °C per decade. The breadth of lakes in this study allowed examination of the diversity of drivers across global lakes, and highlighted the importance of ice cover in determining the suite of morphological and climate drivers for lake temperature dynamics. These empirical results are consistent with modeled predictions of climate change, taking into account the extent to which water warming can be modulated by local environmental conditions and thus defy simple correlations with air temperature. The water temperature changes we report have fundamental importance for thermal structure and ecosystem functioning in global water resources; recognition of the extent to which lakes are currently in transition should have broad implications for regional and global models as well as for management.

  9. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges.

    PubMed

    Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent; Ottvall, Richard; Van Turnhout, Chris; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Lindström, Ake

    2010-12-01

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.

  10. Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

    2016-08-01

    This study analyses trends of mean (T m), maximum (T x), minimum (T n), dew point (T d), and wet-bulb temperatures (T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

  11. Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

    1995-01-01

    The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

  12. Room Temperature Giant and Linear Magnetoresistance in Topological Insulator Bi2Te3 Nanosheets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xiaolin; Du, Yi; Dou, Shixue; Zhang, Chao

    2012-06-01

    Topological insulators, a new class of condensed matter having bulk insulating states and gapless metallic surface states, have demonstrated fascinating quantum effects. However, the potential practical applications of the topological insulators are still under exploration worldwide. We demonstrate that nanosheets of a Bi2Te3 topological insulator several quintuple layers thick display giant and linear magnetoresistance. The giant and linear magnetoresistance achieved is as high as over 600% at room temperature, with a trend towards further increase at higher temperatures, as well as being weakly temperature-dependent and linear with the field, without any sign of saturation at measured fields up to 13 T. Furthermore, we observed a magnetic field induced gap below 10 K. The observation of giant and linear magnetoresistance paves the way for 3D topological insulators to be useful for practical applications in magnetoelectronic sensors such as disk reading heads, mechatronics, and other multifunctional electromagnetic applications.

  13. Room temperature giant and linear magnetoresistance in topological insulator Bi2Te3 nanosheets.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiaolin; Du, Yi; Dou, Shixue; Zhang, Chao

    2012-06-29

    Topological insulators, a new class of condensed matter having bulk insulating states and gapless metallic surface states, have demonstrated fascinating quantum effects. However, the potential practical applications of the topological insulators are still under exploration worldwide. We demonstrate that nanosheets of a Bi(2)Te(3) topological insulator several quintuple layers thick display giant and linear magnetoresistance. The giant and linear magnetoresistance achieved is as high as over 600% at room temperature, with a trend towards further increase at higher temperatures, as well as being weakly temperature-dependent and linear with the field, without any sign of saturation at measured fields up to 13 T. Furthermore, we observed a magnetic field induced gap below 10 K. The observation of giant and linear magnetoresistance paves the way for 3D topological insulators to be useful for practical applications in magnetoelectronic sensors such as disk reading heads, mechatronics, and other multifunctional electromagnetic applications.

  14. Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

    2016-10-01

    A thorough understanding of time dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time series. In this paper we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time series. We use synthetic time series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN), and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low amplitude RW most severely biased. Flicker noise plus white noise is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated random walk variance for the special case of pure random walk noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

  15. Interpretation of Recent Temperature Trends in California

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P B; Bonfils, C; Lobell, D

    2007-09-21

    Regional-scale climate change and associated societal impacts result from large-scale (e.g. well-mixed greenhouse gases) and more local (e.g. land-use change) 'forcing' (perturbing) agents. It is essential to understand these forcings and climate responses to them, in order to predict future climate and societal impacts. California is a fine example of the complex effects of multiple climate forcings. The State's natural climate is diverse, highly variable, and strongly influenced by ENSO. Humans are perturbing this complex system through urbanization, irrigation, and emission of multiple types of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Despite better-than-average observational coverage, we are only beginning to understand the manifestations of these forcings in California's temperature record.

  16. Are Karakoram temperatures out of phase compared to hemispheric trends?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asad, Fayaz; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhang, Hui; Liang, Eryuan; Muhammad, Sher; Farhan, Suhaib Bin; Hussain, Iqtidar; Wazir, Muhammad Atif; Ahmed, Moinuddin; Esper, Jan

    2016-07-01

    In contrast to a global retreating trend, glaciers in the Karakoram showed stability and/or mass gaining during the past decades. This "Karakoram Anomaly" has been assumed to result from an out-of-phase temperature trend compared to hemispheric scales. However, the short instrumental observations from the Karakoram valley bottoms do not support a quantitative assessment of long-term temperature trends in this high mountain area. Here, we presented a new April-July temperature reconstruction from the Karakoram region in northern Pakistan based on a high elevation (~3600 m a.s.l.) tree-ring chronology covering the past 438 years (AD 1575-2012). The reconstruction passes all statistical calibration and validation tests and represents 49 % of the temperature variance recorded over the 1955-2012 instrumental period. It shows a substantial warming accounting to about 1.12 °C since the mid-twentieth century, and 1.94 °C since the mid-nineteenth century, and agrees well with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. These findings provide evidence that the Karakoram temperatures are in-phase, rather than out-of-phase, compared to hemispheric scales since the AD 1575. The synchronous temperature trends imply that the anomalous glacier behavior reported from the Karakoram may need further explanations beyond basic regional thermal anomaly.

  17. Spatiotemporal trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muhire, I.; Ahmed, F.

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at quantifying the trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda for the period of 1961-1992, based on analysis of climatic data (temperatures, precipitations, and potential evapotranspiration). The analysis of magnitude and significance of trends in temperatures and aridity index show the degree of climate change and mark the level of vulnerability to extreme events (e.g., droughts) in different areas of the country. The study reveals that mean temperatures increased in most parts of the country, with a significant increase observed in the eastern lowlands and in the southwestern parts. The highlands located in the northwest and the Congo-Nile crest showed a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures. Aridity index increased only in March, April, October, and November, corresponding with the rainy seasons. The remaining months of the year showed a decreasing trend. At an annual resolution, the highlands and the western region showed a rise in aridity index with a decreasing pattern over the eastern lowlands and the central plateau. Generally, the highlands presented a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures and aridity index especially during the rainy seasons. The eastern lowlands showed a significant increase in mean temperatures and decreasing trends in aridity index. Therefore, these areas are bound to experience more droughts, leading to reduced water and consequent decline in agricultural production. On the other hand, the north highlands and southwest region will continue to be more productive.

  18. Long term trends in stratospheric temperature using NCEP/NCAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández de Campra, Patricia; Zossi de Artigas, Marta; Valdecantos, Hector

    2016-11-01

    The stratospheric temperature trend plays an important role in distinguishing between the climate systems responses to natural and human induced changes. A linear trend of monthly mean temperature from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for both Hemispheres with 2.5° step in latitude and longitude for the period 1979-2011, were calculated on this paper. Four different stratospheric heights: 10 hPa, 30 hPa, 50 hPa, and 70 hPa were analyzed. The observed trend pattern changes with height as expected. The area of negative trends increases when we go up in the stratosphere. Lower and middle stratosphere shows positive trends, in a section of the latitudinal band between 50° S and 60° S. As we go down the stratosphere these positive trends are smoother. At 10 hPa all trends are negative. In Southern Hemisphere at 30 hPa significant negative trends at low middle latitudes were observed. These results were compared with others, obtained by models and observations.

  19. Temperature Trends in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A Data Set

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    TOVS (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder) is the suite of infra-red and microwave sounding instruments, including HIRS-2 and MSU, that have flown on the NOAA Polar orbiting operational satellites TIROS-N, NOAA 6-14 from November 1978 to the present day. Data has been analyzed for the entire time period using a consistent methodology to produce twice daily per satellite global fields of surface skin temperature, atmospheric temperature-moisture profile, cloud top pressure, and fractional cloud cover, OLR and clear sky OLR, and precipitation. All parameters were found to depend on the orbit time of observation which differed as a function of time both because of differing initial satellite orbits and orbit drift. This must be accounted for before one can attempt to find trends in the data. Methodology to account for orbit drift will be shown. Trends will then be shown, over the 21 year period 1979-1999, for surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profile. There has been global warming near the surface which falls off rapidly with height. Trends will also be shown for values of MSU2R and MSU4 which are computed from the soundings. These will be compared to trends of MSU2R and MSU4 observed by Spencer and Christy. There is generally good agreement between Spencer and Christy MSU2R trends and those computed from the TOVS Pathfinder data set, with the largest differences over the tropics.

  20. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  1. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    PubMed

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  2. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  3. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    PubMed

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate. PMID:26503051

  4. Recent trends of extreme temperature indices for the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fonseca, D.; Carvalho, M. J.; Marta-Almeida, M.; Melo-Gonçalves, P.; Rocha, A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change and extreme climate events have a significant impact on societies and ecosystems. As a result, climate change projections, especially related with extreme temperature events, have gained increasing importance due to their impacts on the well-being of the population and ecosystems. However, most studies in the field are based on coarse global climate models (GCMs). In this study, we perform a high resolution downscaling simulation to evaluate recent trends of extreme temperature indices. The model used was Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) forced by MPI-ESM-LR, which has been shown to be one of the more robust models to simulate European climate. The domain used in the simulations includes the Iberian Peninsula and the simulation covers the 1986-2005 period (i.e. recent past). In order to study extreme temperature events, trends were computed using the Theil-Sen method for a set of temperature indexes defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). For this, daily values of minimum and maximum temperatures were used. The trends of the indexes were computed for annual and seasonal values and the Mann-Kendall Trend test was used to evaluate their statistical significance. In order to validate the results, a second simulation, in which WRF was forced by ERA-Interim, was performed. The results suggest an increase in the number of warm days and warm nights, especially during summer and negative trends for cold nights and cold days for the summer and spring. For the winter, contrary to the expected, the results suggest an increase in cold days and cold nights (warming hiatus). This behavior is supported by the WRF simulation forced by ERA-Interim for the autumn days, pointing to an extension of the warming hiatus phenomenon to the remaining seasons. These results should be used with caution since the period used to calculate the trends may not be long enough for this purpose. However, the general sign of trends are similar for

  5. West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LY, M., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.

  6. On rising temperature trends at Dehradun in Doon valley of Uttarakhand, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Omvir; Arya, Poonam; Chaudhary, Bhagwan Singh

    2013-06-01

    Climate change is one of the most important issues among researchers, scientists, planners and politicians in the present times. Of all the climatic elements, temperature plays a major role in detecting climatic change brought about by urbanization and industrialization. This paper, therefore, attempts to study the temperature changes at Dehradun city by analyzing the time series data of annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature from 1967 to 2007. Data for the study has been analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies for the whole period from 1967 to 2007, phase one 1967-1987 and phase two 1988-2007. The study of linear trend indicated increasing trends in annual maximum, annual minimum and annual mean temperatures. During 1967-2007 annual maximum, annual minimum and annual mean temperatures increased about 0.43°C, 0.38°C and 0.49°C, respectively. The analysis of temperature data in two phases also revealed an increase in annual maximum, annual minimum and annual mean temperature. However, temperature increase in second phase was more pronounced in relation to first phase. During second phase (1988-2007) annual maximum, annual minimum and annual mean temperatures increased about 0.42°C, 0.59°C and 0.54°C, respectively. The perceptible increase in temperature during second phase is mainly attributed to urbanization and industrialization process initiated at Dehradun particularly after becoming the state capital of newly carved out state of Uttarakhand since the year 2000. The analysis also highlight significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of rising temperatures at Dehradun and urban population will constantly be affected by the change in the temperature which controls the comfort level of the inhabitants. Also, the rising temperatures in Doon valley are not a healthy signature for crop production and water resources in the region.

  7. Temperature Trends in the White Mountains of New Hampshire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, G.; Kelsey, E. P.; Raudzens Bailey, A.

    2014-12-01

    Located at the summit of Mount Washington (1917 m asl; ~800 hPa), the highest peak in the northeastern United States, the Mount Washington Observatory has meticulously recorded hourly temperature, humidity, cloud-cover, and other atmospheric variables for over 80 years using the same standard procedures to ensure high-quality, homogeneous data. Nearby Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (253 m asl; ~980 hPa), a Long-Term Ecological Research site, has recorded atmospheric and environmental data since 1956. Together, these two sites provide a unique opportunity to evaluate elevation-dependent climate changes. Using Sen's slope and the Mann Kendall non-parameteric test we examine annual and seasonal trends in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures. Both Mount Washington and Hubbard Brook exhibit 56-yr warming trends for most seasons, however, the magnitudes and statistical significances are variable, suggesting the processes controlling these trends likely differ with elevation. Since 1957, for instance, spring maximum temperatures at Hubbard Brook have warmed 0.32 °C dec-1 and winter minimums have increased 0.54 °C dec-1, both well within the range reported for six neighboring low elevation stations from 1970-2012 (Wake et al, 2014a,b). In comparison, Mount Washington summit seasonal minimum temperature trends are typically weaker, with changes in winter minimums (the largest of the seasons) reaching only 0.33 °C dec-1. In this presentation, we highlight differences between these two long-term records and discuss possible role of moist processes and boundary layer/free troposphere exposure in causing their divergence. Authors are planning to study the effects of humidity and cloud-cover on summit temperatures and to investigate how changes in the frequency with which the summit is exposed to boundary layer and free tropospheric air masses influences these relationships.

  8. Removing Diurnal Cycle Contamination in Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperatures: Understanding Tropical Tropospheric Trend Discrepancies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Po-Chedley, S.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical mid-tropospheric temperature (TMT) time series have been constructed by several independent research teams using satellite microwave sounding unit (MSU) measurements beginning in 1978 and advanced MSU (AMSU) measurements since 1998. Despite careful efforts to homogenize the MSU/AMSU measurements, tropical TMT trends disagree by a factor of three even though each analysis uses the same basic data. Previous studies suggest that the discrepancy in tropical TMT temperature trends is largely caused by differences in both the NOAA-9 warm target factor and diurnal drift corrections used by various teams to homogenize the MSU/AMSU measurements. This work introduces a new observationally-based method for removing biases related to satellite diurnal drift. The method relies on minimizing inter-satellite and inter-node drifts by subtracting out a common diurnal cycle determined via linear regression. It is demonstrated that this method is effective at removing intersatellite biases and biases between the ascending (PM) and descending (AM) node of individual satellites in the TMT time series. After TMT bias correction, the ratio of tropical tropospheric temperature trends relative to surface temperature trends is in accord with the ratio from global climate models. It is shown that bias corrections for diurnal drift based on a climate model produce tropical trends very similar to those from the observationally-based correction, with a trend differences smaller than 0.02 K decade-1. Differences among various TMT datasets are explored further. Tropical trends from this work are comparable to those from the Remote Sensing System (RSS) and NOAA datasets despite small differences. Larger differences between this work and UAH are attributed to differences in the treatment of the NOAA-9 target factor and the UAH diurnal cycle correction.

  9. Trends in Observed Summer Daily Temperature Maximum Across Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Arvidson, L.

    2015-12-01

    Increases in the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing are expected to increase the tendency for longer and stronger heat waves in summer. We examine if there is a trend in the observed daytime extreme temperature (Tmax) during summer between 1900-2014 at select high quality stations (n=9) across Colorado. We compile daily observations of Tmax and other variables during summer (JJA), and derive and analyze trends in five different extreme metrics from this data that include the maximum five-day Tmax average, warm spell duration index, and the number of days when Tmax exceeds the 95th, 99th, and 99.9th percentile conditions. We find that the 1930s and 2000s in Colorado had some outstandingly hot years, when we also find exceptionally high count of summer Tmax extremes. Five out of the nine stations show increases in extreme temperature indicators in the more recent decades. The variability in trends in the daily summer Tmax extremes across the nine stations correspond with the mean annual warming trends at those stations. We also find that wetter summers have much smaller instances of Tmax extremes as compared to drier summers.

  10. Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, S.; Leptoukh, G. G.; Romanov, P.

    2011-12-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is an important element to measure the state of the terrestrial ecosystems and to study the surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected the global monthly LST measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS LST time series have ~11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and ~9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend and variability. In this study, monthly climatology from two satellite platforms are calculated and compared. The spatial patterns of LST trends are accessed, focusing on the Asian Monsoon region. Furthermore, the MODIS LST trends are compared with the skin temperature trend from the NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (MODERN ERA RETROSPECTIVE-ANALYSIS FOR RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS), which has longer data record since 1979. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS LST will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy access and use by scientists and general public.

  11. The contribution of ozone to future stratospheric temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maycock, A. C.

    2016-05-01

    The projected recovery of ozone from the effects of ozone depleting substances this century will modulate the stratospheric cooling due to CO2, thereby affecting the detection and attribution of stratospheric temperature trends. Here the impact of future ozone changes on stratospheric temperatures is quantified for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For models with interactive chemistry, ozone trends offset ~50% of the global annual mean upper stratospheric cooling due to CO2 for RCP4.5 and 20% for RCP8.5 between 2006-2015 and 2090-2099. For RCP2.6, ozone trends cause a net warming of the upper and lower stratosphere. The misspecification of ozone trends for RCP2.6/RCP4.5 in models that used the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC)/Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Ozone Database causes anomalous warming (cooling) of the upper (lower) stratosphere compared to chemistry-climate models. The dependence of ozone chemistry on greenhouse gas concentrations should therefore be better represented in CMIP6.

  12. Interaction between temperature, precipitation and snow cover trends in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Brox Nilsen, Irene; Stagge, James Howard; Gisnås, Kjersti; Merete Tallaksen, Lena

    2016-04-01

    Northern latitudes are experiencing faster warming than other regions, partly due to the snow--albedo feedback. A reduction in snow cover, which has a strong positive feedback on the energy balance, leads to a lowering of the albedo and thus, an amplification of the warming signal. Norway, in particular, can be considered a "cold climate laboratory" with large gradients in geography and climate that allows studying the effect of changing temperature and precipitation on snow in highly varying regions. Previous research showed that during last decades there has been an increase in air temperature for the entire country and a concurrent reduction in the land surface area covered by snow. However, these studies also demonstrate the sensitivity of the trend analysis to the period of record, to the start and end of the period, and to the presence of extreme years. In this study, we analyse several variables and their spatial and temporal variability across Norway, including mean, minimum and maximum daily temperature, daily precipitation, snow covered area and total snow water equivalent. Climate data is retrieved from seNorge (http://www.senorge.no), an operationally gridded dataset for Norway with a resolution of 1 km2. Analysis primarily focused on three overlapping 30-year periods (i.e., 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010), but also tested trend sensitivity by varying period lengths. For each climate variable the Theil-Sen trend was calculated for each 30-year period along with the difference between 30-year mean values. In addition, indices specific to each variable were calculated (e.g. the number of days with a shift from negative to positive temperature values). The analysis was performed for the whole of Norway as well as for separate climatological regions previously defined based on temperature, precipitation and elevation. Results confirm a significant increase in mean daily temperatures and accelerating warming trends, especially during winter and spring

  13. Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Austria, Polioptro F.; Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gómez, Carlos

    2016-02-01

    Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.

  14. Linearized-moment analysis of the temperature jump and temperature defect in the Knudsen layer of a rarefied gas.

    PubMed

    Gu, Xiao-Jun; Emerson, David R

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the thermal behavior of a rarefied gas remains a fundamental problem. In the present study, we investigate the predictive capabilities of the regularized 13 and 26 moment equations. In this paper, we consider low-speed problems with small gradients, and to simplify the analysis, a linearized set of moment equations is derived to explore a classic temperature problem. Analytical solutions obtained for the linearized 26 moment equations are compared with available kinetic models and can reliably capture all qualitative trends for the temperature-jump coefficient and the associated temperature defect in the thermal Knudsen layer. In contrast, the linearized 13 moment equations lack the necessary physics to capture these effects and consistently underpredict kinetic theory. The deviation from kinetic theory for the 13 moment equations increases significantly for specular reflection of gas molecules, whereas the 26 moment equations compare well with results from kinetic theory. To improve engineering analyses, expressions for the effective thermal conductivity and Prandtl number in the Knudsen layer are derived with the linearized 26 moment equations.

  15. Linearized-moment analysis of the temperature jump and temperature defect in the Knudsen layer of a rarefied gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Xiao-Jun; Emerson, David. R.

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the thermal behavior of a rarefied gas remains a fundamental problem. In the present study, we investigate the predictive capabilities of the regularized 13 and 26 moment equations. In this paper, we consider low-speed problems with small gradients, and to simplify the analysis, a linearized set of moment equations is derived to explore a classic temperature problem. Analytical solutions obtained for the linearized 26 moment equations are compared with available kinetic models and can reliably capture all qualitative trends for the temperature-jump coefficient and the associated temperature defect in the thermal Knudsen layer. In contrast, the linearized 13 moment equations lack the necessary physics to capture these effects and consistently underpredict kinetic theory. The deviation from kinetic theory for the 13 moment equations increases significantly for specular reflection of gas molecules, whereas the 26 moment equations compare well with results from kinetic theory. To improve engineering analyses, expressions for the effective thermal conductivity and Prandtl number in the Knudsen layer are derived with the linearized 26 moment equations.

  16. Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Romanov, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

  17. Apply a hydrological model to estimate local temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igarashi, Masao; Shinozawa, Tatsuya

    2014-03-01

    Continuous times series {f(x)} such as a depth of water is written f(x) = T(x)+P(x)+S(x)+C(x) in hydrological science where T(x),P(x),S(x) and C(x) are called the trend, periodic, stochastic and catastrophic components respectively. We simplify this model and apply it to the local temperature data such as given E. Halley (1693), the UK (1853-2010), Germany (1880-2010), Japan (1876-2010). We also apply the model to CO2 data. The model coefficients are evaluated by a symbolic computation by using a standard personal computer. The accuracy of obtained nonlinear curve is evaluated by the arithmetic mean of relative errors between the data and estimations. E. Halley estimated the temperature of Gresham College from 11/1692 to 11/1693. The simplified model shows that the temperature at the time rather cold compared with the recent of London. The UK and Germany data sets show that the maximum and minimum temperatures increased slowly from the 1890s to 1940s, increased rapidly from the 1940s to 1980s and have been decreasing since the 1980s with the exception of a few local stations. The trend of Japan is similar to these results.

  18. Resistance thermometer has linear resistance-temperature coefficient at low temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuzyk, W.

    1966-01-01

    Resistance thermometer incorporating a germanium resistance element with a platinum resistance element in a wheatstone bridge circuit has a linear temperature-resistance coefficient over a range from approximately minus 140 deg C to approximately minus 253 deg C.

  19. Analysis of trends in maximum and minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and cloud cover over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, Shouraseni Sen; Balling, Robert C.

    2005-06-01

    We assembled data at a 1° latitude by 1° longitude resolution for 285 cells across India and analyzed the seasonal trends in the maximum and minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and cloud cover for the time period 1931-2002. Significant increases in maximum and minimum temperature have occurred over the Deccan plateau, but in general, trends in DTR were not significant except for a decrease in northwest Kashmir in summer. The effect of cloud cover on the DTR was expectedly negative for most of the country for winter and summer seasons with significant increase in summer cloud cover in Kashmir.

  20. Forecasting Groundwater Temperature with Linear Regression Models Using Historical Data.

    PubMed

    Figura, Simon; Livingstone, David M; Kipfer, Rolf

    2015-01-01

    Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse-gas emissions scenario employed. PMID:25412761

  1. Forecasting Groundwater Temperature with Linear Regression Models Using Historical Data.

    PubMed

    Figura, Simon; Livingstone, David M; Kipfer, Rolf

    2015-01-01

    Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse-gas emissions scenario employed.

  2. Universal linear in temperature resistivity from black hole superradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donos, Aristomenis; Hartnoll, Sean A.

    2012-12-01

    Observations across many families of unconventional materials motivate the search for robust mechanisms producing linear in temperature dc resistivity. Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless quantum phase transitions are commonplace in holographic descriptions of finite density matter, separating critical and ordered phases. We show that at a holographic Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless critical point, if the unstable operator is coupled to the current via irrelevant operators, then a linear contribution to the resistivity is universally obtained. We also obtain broad power law tails in the optical conductivity that shift spectral weight from the Drude peak as well as interband energy scales. We give a partial realization of this scenario using an Einstein-Maxwell-pseudoscalar bulk theory. The instability is a vectorial mode at nonzero wave vector, which is communicated to the homogeneous current via irrelevant coupling to an ionic lattice.

  3. A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, S. F.

    2006-12-01

    How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result

  4. Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models.

    PubMed

    Torres-Avilés, Francisco; Moraga, Tomás; Núñez, Loreto; Icaza, Gloria

    2015-09-01

    The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies. PMID:26578021

  5. Time series requirements and trends of temperature and precipitation extremes over Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fioravanti, Guido; Desiato, Franco; Fraschetti, Piero; Perconti, Walter; Piervitali, Emanuela

    2013-04-01

    Extreme climate events have strong impacts on society and economy; accordingly,the knowledge of their trends on long period is crucial for the definition and implementation of a national adaptation strategy to climate change. The Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) identified a set of temperature and precipitation indices suited to investigate variability and trends of climate extremes. It is well known that extreme indices calculation is more demanding than first and second order statistics are: daily temperature and precipitation data are required and strict constrains in terms of continuity and completeness must be met. In addition, possible dishomogeneities affecting time series must be identified and adjusted before indices calculation. When metadata are not available, statistical methods can provide scientist a relevant support for homogeneity check; however, ad-hoc decision criteria (sometimes subjective) must be applied whenever contradictory results characterize different statistical homogeneity tests. In this work, a set of daily (minimum and maximum) temperature and precipitation time series for the period 1961-2011 were selected in order to guarantee a quite uniform spatial distribution of the stations over the Italian territory and according to the afore-said continuity and completeness criteria. Following the method described by Vincent, the homogeneity check of temperature time series was run at annual level. Two well-documented tests were employed (F-test and T-test), both implemented in the free R-package RHtestV3. The Vincent method was also used for a further investigation of time series homogeneity. Temperature dishomogeneous series were discarded. For precipitation series, no homogeneity check was run. The selected series were employed at daily level to calculate a reliable set of extreme indices. For each station, a linear model was employed for indices trend estimation. Finally, single station results were

  6. Is the curve relating temperature to aggression linear or curvilinear? Assaults and temperature in minneapolis reexamined.

    PubMed

    Bushman, Brad J; Wang, Morgan C; Anderson, Craig A

    2005-07-01

    Using archival data from Minneapolis recorded in 3-hr time intervals, E. G. Cohn and J. Rotton concluded that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and assault, with the maximum assault rate occurring at 74.9 degrees F. They depicted this relationship by plotting temperature against assault. This plot, however, fails to take into account time of day. Time of day was strongly related to both temperature and assault, but in opposite directions. Between 9:00 p.m. and 2:59 a.m. of the next day, when most assaults occurred, there was a positive linear relationship between temperature and assault. The Minneapolis data actually provide stronger support of a positive linear (or monotonic) relationship between temperature and assault than of an inverted U-shaped relationship. PMID:16060743

  7. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in thetropical atmosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Santer, B.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.; Mears, C.; Wentz, F.J.; Klein,S.A.; Seidel, D.J.; Taylor, K.E.; Thorne, P.W.; Wehner, M.F.; Gleckler,P.J.; Boyle, J.S.; Collins, W.D.; Dixon, K.W.; Doutriaux, C.; Free, M.; Fu, Q.; Hansen, J.E.; Jones, G.S.; Ruedy, R.; Karl, T.R.; Lanzante, J.R.; Meehl, G.A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, G.; Schmidt, G.A.

    2005-08-11

    The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at the Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations, and is consistent with basic theory. On multi-decadal timescales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but occurs in only one observational dataset. Other observations show weak or even negative amplification. These results suggest that either different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal timescales, and models fail to capture such behavior, or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational datasets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

  8. CALL FOR PAPERS: Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Ullate, D.; Lombardo, S.; Mañas, M.; Mazzocco, M.; Nijhoff, F.; Sommacal, M.

    2009-12-01

    may be found at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa. Contributions to the special issue should if possible be submitted electronically by web upload at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa, or by email to jphysa@iop.org, quoting 'JPhysA Special Issue: Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena' Submissions should ideally be in standard LaTeX form. Please see the website for further information on electronic submissions. Authors unable to submit electronically may send hard-copy contributions to: Publishing Administrators, Journal of Physics A, IOP Publishing, Dirac House, Temple Back, Bristol BS1 6BE, UK. Please quote 'JPhysA Special Issue—Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena'. All contributions should be accompanied by a read-me file or covering letter giving the postal and e-mail addresses for correspondence. The Publishing Office should be notified of any subsequent change of address. This special issue will be published in the paper and online version of the journal.

  9. CALL FOR PAPERS: Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena Special issue on Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Ullate, D.; Lombardo, S.; Mañas, M.; Mazzocco, M.; Nijhoff, F.; Sommacal, M.

    2009-11-01

    may be found at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa. Contributions to the special issue should if possible be submitted electronically by web upload at www.iop.org/Journals/jphysa, or by email to jphysa@iop.org, quoting 'JPhysA Special Issue: Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena' Submissions should ideally be in standard LaTeX form. Please see the website for further information on electronic submissions. Authors unable to submit electronically may send hard-copy contributions to: Publishing Administrators, Journal of Physics A, IOP Publishing, Dirac House, Temple Back, Bristol BS1 6BE, UK. Please quote 'JPhysA Special Issue—Current Trends in Integrability and Non Linear Phenomena'. All contributions should be accompanied by a read-me file or covering letter giving the postal and e-mail addresses for correspondence. The Publishing Office should be notified of any subsequent change of address. This special issue will be published in the paper and online version of the journal.

  10. Trends and variability in East African rainfall and temperature observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seregina, Larisa; Ermert, Volker; Fink, Andreas H.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    The economy of East Africa is highly dependent on agriculture, leading to a strong vulnerability of local society to fluctuations in seasonal rainfall amounts, including extreme events. Hence, the knowledge about the evolution of seasonal rainfall under future climate conditions is crucial. Rainfall regimes over East Africa are influenced by multiple factors, including two monsoon systems, several convergence zones and the Rift Valley lakes. In addition, local conditions, like topography, modulate the large-scale rainfall pattern. East African rainfall variability is also influenced by various teleconnections like the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Regarding future climate projections, regional and global climate models partly disagree on the increase or decrease of East African rainfall. The specific aim of the present study is the acquirement of historic data from weather stations in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ruanda and Uganda), the use of gridded satellite (rainfall) products (ARC2 and TRMM), and three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., ERA-Interim) to quantify climate variability in the recent past and to understand its causes. Climate variability and trends, including changes in extreme events, are evaluated using ETCCDI climate change and standardized precipitation indices. These climate indices are determined in order to investigate the variability of temperature and rainfall and their trends with the focus on most recent decades. In the follow-up, statistical and dynamical analyses are conducted to quantify the local impact of pertinent large-scale modes of climate variability (Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Sea Surface Temperature of the Indian Ocean).

  11. Multivariate, non-linear trend analysis of heterogeneous water quality monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lischeid, Gunnar; Kalettka, Thomas; Steidl, Jörg; Merz, Christoph; Lehr, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Comprehensive water quality monitoring is considered a necessary prerequisite for sound water resources management and a valuable source for science. In practice, however, use of large monitoring data sets is often limited due to heterogeneous data sources, spatially and temporally variable monitoring schemes, non-equidistant sampling, large natural variability, and, last but not least, by the sheer size of the data sets that makes identification of unexpected peculiarities a tedious task. As a consequence, any initiation of gradual long-term system shifts can hardly be detected, especially as long as it is restricted to a small fraction of sampling sites. In addition, trends might be limited to a rather small subset of sampling sites or to certain periods of time and might thus escape attention. Usually, numerous solutes are monitored in parallel, but trend analyses are performed for each solute separately. However, in water quality samples trends are hardly restricted to single solutes, but affect various solutes synchronously in a characteristic way. Thus performing joint multivariate trend analyses would not only save effort and time, but would yield more robust assessments of system shifts. We present a non-linear multivariate data visualization approach that allows a rapid assessment of non-linear, possibly local trends and unexpected behaviour in large water quality monitoring data sets. It consists of a combination of Self-Organizing Maps and Sammon's Mapping (SOM-SM). The approach was applied to a data set of 2900 water samples, each comprising 13 solutes, compiled from various monitoring programs in the Federal State of Brandenburg (Germany). In total, 128 stream water, groundwater and small pond sites had been sampled between 1994 and 2012 at different and irregular time intervals. The SOM-SM product is a graph where every sample is represented by a symbol. Location of the symbols in the graph is optimized such that the distance between any two symbols

  12. Extremes and non-linearities in central England temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Brabson, B. B.; Holt, T.

    2003-04-01

    It is widely recognized that the impact of climate change on the occurrence of extremes is likely to have greater implications for human societies and the natural environment than any change in the mean. As part of the EU-funded MICE project, we have explored the changing characteristics of extremes over time, taking the example of the central England temperature record. This is a long homogeneous record constructed from between one and four sites, and for daily mean temperatures, extending back to 1772. For the observed record, we use the Generalized Pareto distributions applied to independent exceedances to look at the behaviour of winter and summer extremes in twenty-year overlapping periods. This analysis shows that the cold winter and hot summer extremes have warmed more steeply than their means, and this trend can be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. For the future, we perform the same analysis over the period up to 2100 for a grid box selected from the HadCM3 GCM (A2 emissions scenario) to be representative of central England. In this case we find that hot summer extremes rise very rapidly compared to the mean, and this can be related to an increase in the length and number of very hot spells in summer (and accompanying reductions in occurrences of very cold winter spells). Finally, a comparison is made of the behaviour of extremes in the HadCM3 experiments forced with the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios.

  13. Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature trends and variations, 1900-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mantua, N. J.; Johnstone, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ~0.5 to 1°C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST and SAT, this study investigates NE Pacific coupled atmosphere-ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with strongest trends observed from 1910-20 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900-2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural, internally-generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012, and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

  14. Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tiao, G. C.

    1992-01-01

    Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

  15. CMB all-scale blackbody distortions induced by linearizing temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notari, Alessio; Quartin, Miguel

    2016-08-01

    Cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments, such as WMAP and Planck, measure intensity anisotropies and build maps using a linearized formula for relating them to the temperature blackbody fluctuations. However, this procedure also generates a signal in the maps in the form of y -type distortions which is degenerate with the thermal Sunyaev Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect. These are small effects that arise at second order in the temperature fluctuations not from primordial physics but from such a limitation of the map-making procedure. They constitute a contaminant for measurements of our peculiar velocity, the tSZ and primordial y -distortions. They can nevertheless be well modeled and accounted for. We show that the distortions arise from a leakage of the CMB dipole into the y -channel which couples to all multipoles, mostly affecting the range ℓ≲400 . This should be visible in Planck's y -maps with an estimated signal-to-noise ratio of about 12. We note however that such frequency-dependent terms carry no new information on the nature of the CMB dipole. This implies that the real significance of Planck's Doppler coupling measurements is actually lower than reported by the collaboration. Finally, we quantify the level of contamination in tSZ and primordial y -type distortions and show that it is above the sensitivity of proposed next-generation CMB experiments.

  16. Temporal PCB and mercury trends in Lake Erie fish communities: a dynamic linear modeling analysis.

    PubMed

    Sadraddini, Somayeh; Ekram Azim, M; Shimoda, Yuko; Mahmood, Maryam; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Backus, Sean M; Arhonditsis, George B

    2011-11-01

    We performed dynamic linear modeling analysis on fish contaminant data collected from the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Environment Canada to examine long-term trends of total mercury (THg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Erie. Several sport fish species (walleye, smallmouth bass, rainbow trout) with differences in their diet habits, food competition strategies and foraging patterns are characterized by weakly increasing trends of their THg levels in Lake Erie after the mid- or late 1990s. Similarly, our analysis shows that the decline rates of the PCB body burdens in white bass, smallmouth bass, freshwater drum and whitefish have slowed down or have switched to weakly increasing rates over the last decade. Our analysis also provides evidence that the rainbow trout and coho salmon PCB concentrations have been decreasing steadily but the associated rates were fairly weak. The systematic shifts in energy trophodynamics along with the food web alterations induced from the introduction of non-native species, the new role of the sediments as a net contaminant source, and the potentially significant fluxes from the atmosphere stand out as some of the hypotheses proposed to explain the limited Lake Erie response in recent years to the various contamination mitigation strategies.

  17. Temperature Trends over Germany from Homogenized Radiosonde Data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinbrecht, W.; Pattantyús Ábráham, M.

    2015-12-01

    We present homogenization procedure and results for Germany's historical radiosonde records, dating back to the 1950s. Our manual homogenization makes use of the different RS networks existing in East and West-Germany from the 1950s until 1990. The largest temperature adjustments, up to 2.5K, are applied to Freiberg sondes used in the East in the 1950s and 1960s. Adjustments for Graw H50 and M60 sondes, used in the West from the 1950s to the late 1980s, and for RKZ sondes, used in the East in the 1970s and 1980s, are also significant, 0.3 to 0.5K. Small differences between Vaisala RS80 and RS92 sondes used throughout Germany since 1990 and 2005, respectively, were not corrected for at levels from the ground to 300 hPa. Comparison of the homogenized data with other radiosonde datasets, RICH (Haimberger et al., 2012) and HadAT2 (McCarthy et al., 2008), and with Microwave Sounding Unit satellite data (Mears and Wentz, 2009), shows generally good agreement. HadAT2 data exhibit a few suspicious spikes in the 1970s and 1980s, and some suspicious offsets up to 1K after 1995. Compared to RICH, our homogenized data show slightly different temperatures in the 1960s and 1970s. We find that the troposphere over Germany has been warming by 0.25 ± 0.1K per decade since the early 1960s, slightly more than reported in other studies (Hartmann et al., 2013). The stratosphere has been cooling, with the trend increasing from almost no change near 230hPa (the tropopause) to -0.5 ± 0.2K per decade near 50hPa. Trends from the homogenized data are more positive by about 0.1K per decade compared to the original data, both in troposphere and stratosphere. References: Haimberger, L., C. Tavolato, and S. Sperka, 2012. J. Climate, 25, 8108-8131, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-11-00668.1. Hartmann, D., et al., 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and surface in IPCC AR5, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. [Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/.] McCarthy, M., et al., 2008. J. Climate

  18. Protists decrease in size linearly with temperature: ca. 2.5% degrees C(-1).

    PubMed

    Atkinson, David; Ciotti, Benjamin J; Montagnes, David J S

    2003-12-22

    An inverse relationship between organism size and rearing temperature is widely observed in ectotherms ('the temperature-size rule', TSR). This has rarely been quantified for related taxa, and its applicability to protists also required testing. Here, we quantify the relationship between temperature and mean cell volume within the protists by a meta-analysis of published data covering marine, brackish water and freshwater autotrophs and heterotrophs. In each of 44 datasets, a linear relationship between temperature and size could not be rejected, and a negative trend was found in 32 cases (20 gave significant negative regressions, p < 0.05). By combining 65 datasets, we revealed, for each 1 degrees C increase, a cell-size reduction of 2.5% (95% CI of 1.7-3.3%) of the volume observed at 15 degrees C. The value did not differ across taxa (amoebae, ciliates, diatoms, dinoflagellates, flagellates), habitats, modes of nutrition or combinations of these. The data are consistent with two hypotheses that are capable of explaining the TSR in ectotherms generally: (i) resource, especially respiratory gas, limitation; and (ii) fitness gains from dividing earlier as population growth increases. Using the above relationship we show how changes in cell numbers with temperature can be estimated from changes in biomass and vice versa; ignoring this relationship would produce a systematic error.

  19. Studying the force characteristics of a high temperature superconducting linear synchronous motor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Luhai; Jin, Jianxun

    2011-08-01

    A single-sided high temperature superconducting (HTS) linear synchronous motor (HTSLSM) with an HTS bulk magnet array as its secondary has been developed. A field-cooled magnetization system has also been developed to obtain the magnet array with alternate magnetic poles. In order to identify the performance and force characteristics of the HTSLSM, an equivalent 3D finite element analysis (FEA) model has been built up to analyze its field distributions and cogging force characteristics, and an experimental system has been constructed to measure its thrust and normal force characteristics. The traits of the thrust and the normal force have been extracted by comprehensive experiments, including the trends versus different exciting currents, different air gap lengths and variable magnetic poles. The analysis and experimental results are fundamental to the electromagnetic optimum design and control scheme evaluation for the HTSLSM.

  20. Output trends, characteristics, and measurements of three megavoltage radiotherapy linear accelerators.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Murshed

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to characterize and understand the long-term behavior of the output from megavoltage radiotherapy linear accelerators. Output trends of nine beams from three linear accelerators over a period of more than three years are reported and analyzed. Output, taken during daily warm-up, forms the basis of this study. The output is measured using devices having ion chambers. These are not calibrated by accredited dosimetry laboratory, but are baseline-compared against monthly output which is measured using calibrated ion chambers. We consider the output from the daily check devices as it is, and sometimes normalized it by the actual output measured during the monthly calibration of the linacs. The data show noisy quasi-periodic behavior. The output variation, if normalized by monthly measured "real' output, is bounded between ± 3%. Beams of different energies from the same linac are correlated with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.97, for one particular linac, and as low as 0.44 for another. These maximum and minimum correlations drop to 0.78 and 0.25 when daily output is normalized by the monthly measurements. These results suggest that the origin of these correlations is both the linacs and the daily output check devices. Beams from different linacs, independent of their energies, have lower correlation coefficient, with a maximum of about 0.50 and a minimum of almost zero. The maximum correlation drops to almost zero if the output is normalized by the monthly measured output. Some scatter plots of pairs of beam output from the same linac show band-like structures. These structures are blurred when the output is normalized by the monthly calibrated output. Fourier decomposition of the quasi-periodic output is consistent with a 1/f power law. The output variation appears to come from a distorted normal distribution with a mean of slightly greater than unity. The quasi-periodic behavior is manifested in the seasonally averaged output

  1. Output trends, characteristics, and measurements of three megavoltage radiotherapy linear accelerators.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Murshed

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to characterize and understand the long-term behavior of the output from megavoltage radiotherapy linear accelerators. Output trends of nine beams from three linear accelerators over a period of more than three years are reported and analyzed. Output, taken during daily warm-up, forms the basis of this study. The output is measured using devices having ion chambers. These are not calibrated by accredited dosimetry laboratory, but are baseline-compared against monthly output which is measured using calibrated ion chambers. We consider the output from the daily check devices as it is, and sometimes normalized it by the actual output measured during the monthly calibration of the linacs. The data show noisy quasi-periodic behavior. The output variation, if normalized by monthly measured "real' output, is bounded between ± 3%. Beams of different energies from the same linac are correlated with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.97, for one particular linac, and as low as 0.44 for another. These maximum and minimum correlations drop to 0.78 and 0.25 when daily output is normalized by the monthly measurements. These results suggest that the origin of these correlations is both the linacs and the daily output check devices. Beams from different linacs, independent of their energies, have lower correlation coefficient, with a maximum of about 0.50 and a minimum of almost zero. The maximum correlation drops to almost zero if the output is normalized by the monthly measured output. Some scatter plots of pairs of beam output from the same linac show band-like structures. These structures are blurred when the output is normalized by the monthly calibrated output. Fourier decomposition of the quasi-periodic output is consistent with a 1/f power law. The output variation appears to come from a distorted normal distribution with a mean of slightly greater than unity. The quasi-periodic behavior is manifested in the seasonally averaged output

  2. Are recent global mean temperature trends anomalous relative to the CMIP5 ensemble?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, M.; Huybers, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have described a slow-down in the rise in global mean temperature over the past 15 years, noting that these trends are anomalous with respect to the trends predicted by the CMIP5 ensemble. This result has been shown to be sensitive to the choice of starting year when assessing the hiatus with a simple linear regression. It is also sensitive to assumptions about the independence of CMIP5 ensemble members when estimating distributions of the CMIP5 ensemble. We address these interdependences of ensemble members by exploring two end-member scenarios of the CMIP5 ensemble: one in which each ensemble member is assumed independent and a second in which modeling centers are assumed independent. A more stable metric of trend, the δ-slope, is employed to measure the recent divergence of a temperature time-series from the average CMIP5 projection. When treating each CMIP5 ensemble member as independent, we find that observed recent trends are anomalous for all hiatus periods starting after 1997 at the 95% confidence level. However, for the scenario assuming modeling centers to be independent, we find that observed recent trends are consistent with the CMIP5 ensemble at the 95% confidence level. This result holds across all plausible hiatus starting years tested (1990-2005). Using the Ansari-Bradley rank-sum test, seven modeling centers comprising 58 ensemble members are each shown to have lower spread in δ-slope values than the distribution of δ slope values of CMIP5 ensemble members outside each modeling center at the 95% confidence level. This supports the end-member scenario that treats each modeling center as independent. In addition, examination of spatial patterns of δ-slope in each CMIP5 ensemble member reveals that the simulation that is closest to observations in global mean temperature δ-slope value also has one of the highest δ-slope spatial pattern correlations with observations. This pattern reflects a strong negative phase of the Pacific

  3. Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

    2008-03-01

    The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

  4. A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B

  5. Surface Temperature Trends in the Arctic Atlantic Region Over the Last 2,000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korhola, A.; Hanhijarvi, S.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset of the recent warming trend.

  6. Differences between near-surface equivalent temperature and temperature trends for the Eastern United States. Equivalent temperature as an alternative measure of heat content

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davey, C.A.; Pielke, R.A.; Gallo, K.P.

    2006-01-01

    There is currently much attention being given to the observed increase in near-surface air temperatures during the last century. The proper investigation of heating trends, however, requires that we include surface heat content to monitor this aspect of the climate system. Changes in heat content of the Earth's climate are not fully described by temperature alone. Moist enthalpy or, alternatively, equivalent temperature, is more sensitive to surface vegetation properties than is air temperature and therefore more accurately depicts surface heating trends. The microclimates evident at many surface observation sites highlight the influence of land surface characteristics on local surface heating trends. Temperature and equivalent temperature trend differences from 1982-1997 are examined for surface sites in the Eastern U.S. Overall trend differences at the surface indicate equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in the Eastern U.S. Seasonally, equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in winter and are relatively cooler in the fall. These patterns, however, vary widely from site to site, so local microclimate is very important. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. An empirical technique for estimating near-surface air temperature trends in central Greenland from SSM/I brightness temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Shuman, C.A.; Alley, R.B.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Stearns, C.R.

    1995-02-01

    In central Greenland, near-surface air temperatures can be estimated from long-term satellite passive microwave brightness temperatures supported by limited air-temperature data from automatic weather stations. In this region, brightness temperature depends on snow emissivity, which varies slowly over time, and on snow temperature, which varies more rapidly and is controlled by air temperature. The air temperature and brightness temperature data define an emissivity trend which can be modeled as an annual sinusoid. An air temperature trend can then be derived from the brightness temperature and modeled emissivity information. The estimated air temperature values represent an integrated near-surface value that defines the overall temperature trend at the Greenland Summit. The modeled emissivity cycle allows daily-average air temperatures to be estimated across significant gaps in weather station records, as well as quality control of their temperature data. The technique also generates annual trends of emissivity which can be used to evaluate radiative transfer models of microwave emissivity from dry firn.

  8. Radiative analysis of global mean temperature trends in the middle atmosphere: Effects of non-locality and secondary absorption bands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fomichev, V. I.; Jonsson, A. I.; Ward, W. E.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we provide a refined and extended assignment of past and future temperature changes relative to previous analyses and describe and evaluate the relevance of vertical coupling and non-linear and secondary radiative mechanisms for the interpretation of climatic temperature variations in the middle atmosphere. Because of their nature, the latter mechanisms are not adequately accounted for in most regression analyses of temperature trends as a function of local constituent variations. These mechanisms are examined using (1) globally averaged profiles from transient simulations with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances and (2) a one-dimensional radiative-equilibrium model forced using the diagnosed global mean changes in radiatively active constituents as derived from the CMAM model runs. The conditions during the periods 1975 to 1995 and 2010 to 2040 (during which the rates of change in ozone and CO2 differ) provide a suitable contrast for the role of the non-linear and non-local mechanisms being evaluated in this paper to be clearly differentiated and evaluated. Vertical coupling of radiative transfer effects and the influence of secondary absorption bands are important enough to render the results of multiple linear regression analyses between the temperature response and constituent changes misleading. These effects are evaluated in detail using the 1D radiative-equilibrium model using profiles from the CMAM runs as inputs. In order to explain the differences in the CMAM temperature trends prior to and after 2000 these other radiative effects must be considered in addition to local changes in the radiatively active species. The middle atmosphere temperature cools in response to CO2 and water vapor increases, but past and future trends are modulated by ozone changes.

  9. Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

    2015-12-01

    This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

  10. Climate reconstructions of the NH mean temperature: Can underestimation of trends and variability be avoided?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christiansen, Bo

    2010-05-01

    Knowledge about the climate in the period before instrumental records are available is based on climate proxies obtained from tree-rings, sediments, ice-cores etc. Reconstructing the climate from such proxies is therefore necessary for studies of climate variability and for placing recent climate change into a longer term perspective. More than a decade ago pioneering attempts at using a multi-proxy dataset to reconstruct the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature resulted in the much published "hockey-stick"; a NH mean temperature that did not vary much before the rapid increase in the last century. Subsequent reconstructions show some differences but the overall "hockey-stick" structure seems to be a persistent feature However, there has been an increasing awareness of the fact that the applied reconstruction methods underestimate the low-frequency variability and trends. The recognition of the inadequacies of the reconstruction methods has to a large degree originated from pseudo-proxy studies, i.e., from long climate model experiments where artificial proxies have been generated and reconstructions based on these have been compared to the known model climate. It has also been found that reconstructions contain a large element of stochasticity which is revealed as broad distributions of skills. This means that it is very difficult to draw conclusions from a single or a few realizations. Climate reconstruction methods are based on variants of linear regression models relating temperatures and proxies. In this contribution we review some of the theory of linear regression and error-in-variables models to identify the sources of the underestimation of variability. Based on the gained insight we formulate a reconstruction method supposed to minimize this underestimation. The method is tested by applying it to an ensemble of surrogate temperature fields based on two climate simulations covering the last 500 and 1000 years. Compared to the RegEM TTLS method and a

  11. Monthly air temperature trends in Switzerland 1901 2000 and 1975 2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebetez, M.; Reinhard, M.

    2008-02-01

    We analysed long-term temperature trends based on 12 homogenised series of monthly temperature data in Switzerland at elevations between 316 m.a.s.l. and 2490 m.a.s.l for the 20th century (1901 2000) and for the last thirty years (1975 2004). Comparisons were made between these two periods, with changes standardised to decadal trends. Our results show mean decadal trends of +0.135 °C during the 20th century and +0.57 °C based on the last three decades only. These trends are more than twice as high as the averaged temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere. Most stations behave quite similarly, indicating that the increasing trends are linked to large-scale rather than local processes. Seasonal analyses show that the greatest temperature increase in the 1975 2004 period occurred during spring and summer whereas they were particularly weak in spring during the 20th century. Recent temperature increases are as much related to increases in maximum temperatures as to increases in minimum temperature, a trend that was not apparent in the 1901 2000 period. The different seasonal warming rates may have important consequences for vegetation, natural disasters, human health, and energy consumption, amongst others. The strong increase in summer temperatures helps to explain the accelerated glacier retreat in the Alps since 1980.

  12. Discussion on linear long-term trends in aerosol and cloud properties over India and its surrounding waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sreekanth, V.

    2016-05-01

    Spatial and seasonal variations in the linear long-term trend estimates of aerosol and cloud properties over Indian subcontinent and the surrounding oceanic regions of Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) are studied and discussed utilizing 12 complete years (2003-2014) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Aerosol and cloud products. Annual Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) trends (in terms of AOD/year) are found to be positive (upward) over most of the study region with a spatial mean (median) value of ∼0.0065 (0.0064) and exhibited significant spatial and seasonal heterogeneity. Over Indian landmass AOD trends and their statistical significance decreased towards north along the Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP), for which the probable causes are discussed. Same kind of pattern in AOD trends has been observed as we move deeper into the oceanic regions of BoB and AS, away from Indian subcontinent. Observed trend patterns are discussed in light of the possible increase in emissions (over Indian landmass) and transported aerosol component, co-variation with trends in meteorological parameters and their possible feedbacks. Trend maps in seasonal AOD are shown to understand the aerosol build up over the study region under varying meteorological conditions. Seasonal AOD trend patterns resembled the synoptic scale wind circulation over the study region revealing that the upward trend in aerosol abundance over the adjoining oceanic regions of India is a result of effective transport of increasing emissions over India on to them. No significant trends in cloud properties (over the whole study region) are depicted in concert with that of aerosols, except over few pockets. The study also highlighted the role of large scale atmospheric processes in modulating the shape of the AOD time series over the regions with significant abundance of natural aerosol component (dust).

  13. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitations extremes in Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filahi, S.; Tanarhte, M.; Mouhir, L.; El Morhit, M.; Tramblay, Y.

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of Morocco's climate extreme trends during the last four decades. Indices were computed based on a daily temperature and precipitation using a consistent approach recommended by the ETCCDI. Trends in these indices were calculated at 20 stations from 1970 to 2012. Twelve indices were considered to detect trends in temperature. A large number of stations have significant trends and confirm an increase in temperature, showing increased warming during spring and summer seasons. The results also show a decrease in the number of cold days and nights and an increase in the number of warm days and nights. Increasing trends have also been found in the absolute warmest and coldest temperatures of the year. A clear increase is detected for warm nights and diurnal temperature range. Eight indices for precipitation were also analyzed, but the trends for these precipitation indices are much less significant than for temperature indices and show more mixed spatial patterns of change. Heavy precipitation events do not exhibit significant trends except at a few locations, in the north and central parts of Morocco, with a general tendency towards drier conditions. The correlation between these climate indices and the large-scale atmospheric circulations indices such as the NAO, MO, and WEMO were also analyzed. Results show a stronger relationship with these climatic indices for the precipitation indices compared to the temperature indices. The correlations are more significant in the Atlantic regions, but they remain moderate at the whole country scale.

  14. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature and its relationship over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subash, N.; Sikka, A. K.

    2014-08-01

    This study investigated the trends in rainfall and temperature and the possibility of any rational relationship between the trends over the homogeneous regions over India. Annual maximum temperature shows an increasing trend in all the homogeneous temperature regions and corresponding annual rainfall also follow the same pattern in all the regions, except North East. As far as monthly analysis is concerned, no definite pattern has been observed between trends in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, except during October. Increasing trends of maximum and minimum temperature during October accelerate the water vapor demand and most of the lakes, rivers, ponds and other water bodies with no limitation of water availability during this time fulfills the water vapor demand and shows an increasing trend of rainfall activity. This study shows there exists no direct relationship between increasing rainfall and increasing maximum temperature when monthly or seasonal pattern is concerned over meteorological subdivisions of India, however we can make a conclusion that the relation between the trends of rainfall and temperature have large scale spatial and temporal dependence.

  15. Long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong and southern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, T. C.; Chan, H. S.; Ginn, E. W. L.; Wong, M. C.

    2011-01-01

    The observed long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong were studied based on the meteorological data recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters from 1885-2008. Results show that, over the past 124 years, the extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the length of the warm spell in Hong Kong, exhibit statistically significant long-term rising trends, while the length of the cold spell shows a statistically significant decreasing trend. The time-dependent return period analysis also indicated that the return period for daily minimum temperature at 4°C or lower lengthened considerably from 6 years in 1900 to over 150 years in 2000, while the return periods for daily maximum temperature reaching 35°C or above shortened drastically from 32 years in 1900 to 4.5 years in 2000. Past trends in extreme temperatures from selected weather stations in southern China from 1951-2004 were also assessed. Over 70% of the stations studied yielded a statistically significant rising trend in extreme daily minimum temperature, while the trend for extreme maximum temperatures was found to vary, with no significant trend established for the majority of stations.

  16. Extreme temperature trends in major cropping systems and their relation to agricultural land use change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; Siebert, S.; Holbrook, N. M.; Huybers, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    High temperature extremes during the growing season can reduce agricultural production. At the same time, agricultural practices can modify temperatures by altering the surface energy budget. Here we investigate growing season climate trends in major cropping systems and their relationship with agricultural land use change. In the US Midwest, 100-year trends exhibit a transition towards more favorable conditions, with cooler summer temperature extremes and increased precipitation. Statistically significant correspondence is found between the cooling pattern and trends in cropland intensification, as well as with trends towards greater irrigated land over a small subset of the domain. Land conversion to cropland, often considered an important influence on historical temperatures, is not significantly associated with cooling. We suggest that cooling is primarily associated with agricultural intensification increasing the potential for evapotranspiration, consistent with our finding that cooling trends are greatest for the highest temperature percentiles, and that increased evapotranspiration generally leads to greater precipitation. Temperatures over rainfed croplands show no cooling trend during drought conditions, consistent with evapotranspiration requiring adequate soil moisture, and implying that modern drought events feature greater warming as baseline cooler temperatures revert to historically high extremes. Preliminary results indicate these relationships between temperature extremes, irrigation, and intensification are also observed in other major summer cropping systems, including northeast China, Argentina, and the Canadian Prairies.

  17. Trend analysis of maximum, minimum, and average temperatures in Bangladesh: 1961-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddik, Md. Abu Zafer; Rahman, Mursheda

    2014-05-01

    The present study is about the analysis of mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures carried out on annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales examining the data from 15 meteorological stations in Bangladesh for the period 1961-2008. Various spatial and statistical tools were used to display and analyze trends in temperature data. ArcGIS was used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using Thiessen polygon method. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to determine whether there is a positive or negative trend in data with their statistical significance. Sen's method was also used to determine the magnitude of the trends. The results reveal positive trends in annual mean and mean maximum temperatures with 95 % significance. Trend test reveals that the significant positive trend is found in June to November in case of mean maximum temperature, but according to the mean minimum temperature, the situation is different and a significant positive trend was found from November to February. The analysis of the whole record reveals a tendency toward warmer years, with significantly warmer summer periods and slightly colder winters. These warming patterns may have important impacts on energy consumption, water supply, human health, and natural environment in Bangladesh.

  18. Trends and projections of temperature, precipitation, and snow cover during snow cover-observed period over southwestern Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarenistanak, Mohammad; Dhorde, Amit G.; Kripalani, R. H.; Dhorde, Anargha A.

    2015-11-01

    In the present study, tendencies in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover area over the southwestern part of Iran have been assessed. The research mainly focused on snow cover-observed period which included the months of December, January, February, March, and April in the area. This research has been divided into two parts. First part consists of an analysis of the trends in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover area during the above months. Trends in these parameters were tested by linear regression, and significance was determined by t test. Mann-Kendall rank test (MK test) was also employed to confirm the results of linear regression. Sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQ-MK test) was applied for change point detection in the series. For snow cover analysis, remote sensing images from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite with advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor for the period 1987-2007 were used. The second part of the research involved future projections based on four models under B1 and A1B emission scenarios. The models used were centre national de recherches meteorologiques (CNRM), European Center Hamburg model (ECHAM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROCH) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMOC) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4. The analysis of temperature trends revealed a significant increase during February and April. Temperature projections showed that temperature may increase between 1.12 to 7.87 °C by 2100 in the study area. The results of precipitation series indicated that majority of the stations registered insignificant trends during the twentieth century. However, precipitation may decrease according to most of the models under both scenarios, but the decrease may not be large, except according to MIROCH model. The results of trend analysis of snow cover area indicated that no significant trends were detected by any statistical tests

  19. Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, Ellis E.

    2009-01-01

    Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

  20. Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

  1. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  2. Trends of temperature and precipitation extremes in the Loess Plateau Region of China, 1961-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Qi-xiang; Wang, Meng-ben; Fan, Xiao-hui; Zhang, Feng; Zhu, Shi-zhong; Zhao, Tian-liang

    2016-05-01

    The spatial and temporal trends of 11 (7) temperature (precipitation) extreme indices are examined for the Loess Plateau Region (LPR) and its southeast and northwest sub-regions based on daily observations at 214 meteorological stations. Results show widespread significant warming trends for all the temperature extremes except for the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and the lowest daily maximum temperature in each year (TXn) during 1961-2010. When regionally averaged, a significant warming trend is detected for all the indices except for DTR and TXn in the past 50 years. Compared with the entire LPR, a significant warming trend is detected for all the indices except for DTR and TXn over the southeast sub-region of LPR; while it is observed for all the indices over the northwest. The trends for these indices are generally stronger in the northwest than in the southeast in the past 50 years. In contrast, for precipitation indices, only a small percentage of areas show significant drying or wetting trends and, when regionally averaged, none of them displays significant trends during the past 50 years. On the sub-regional scale, however, a larger percentage of areas show significant drying trends for precipitation indices generally over the southeast relative to the entire LPR, and noticeably, the sub-regional average heavy precipitation (R10mm) and wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) display significant decreasing trends during the past 50 years; whereas only a slightly larger percentage of areas show significant wetting trends for these indices over the northwest compared with the entire LPR, and when sub-regionally averaged, none of the indices have significant trends during the past 50 years.

  3. Filamentary microstructure and linear temperature dependence of normal state transport in optimized high temperature superconductors

    PubMed Central

    Phillips, J. C.

    1997-01-01

    A filamentary model of “metallic” conduction in layered high temperature superconductive cuprates explains the concurrence of normal state resistivities (Hall mobilities) linear in T (T−2) with optimized superconductivity. The model predicts the lowest temperature T0 for which linearity holds and it also predicts the maximum superconductive transition temperature Tc. The theory abandons the effective medium approximation that includes Fermi liquid as well as all other nonpercolative models in favor of countable smart basis states. PMID:11038596

  4. Long Term MSU Tropospheric and Ground Temperature Trends (1979-2008) Over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, A. K.; El-Askary, H.; Kafatos, M.

    2009-12-01

    Africa, the second largest and second most populous continent, is marked by an arid desert zone in the north (10°-40°N), dense forest and tropical climate in the central region (10°S to 10°N), and a southern temperate zone (10°-40°S). The African landmass, which is symmetrically distributed across the equator, shows differential heating and cooling atmospheric (lower- and mid-tropospheric) temperature trends. The northern arid region, a main source of major dust storms and mineral dust aerosols, shows a larger warming trend compared to the central region characterized by dense forest and forest fires. The mean annual lower- and mid-tropospheric temperature trend (Microwave Sounding Units MSU, 1979-2008) is found be 0.023±0.006 °K/year and 0.018±0.003 °K/year respectively over northern Africa (Saharan region) as compared to 0.010±0.003 °K/year and 0.009±0.002 °K/year over the central equatorial, and mostly forest-covered region (Figure 1). The southern region shows a mean annual lower- and mid-tropospheric temperature trend of 0.015±0.004 °K/year and 0.011±0.003 °K/year, which is lower than the desert region. The dense tropical forest region near the equator shows the lowest tropospheric temperature trend (lower: 0.011±0.003 °K/year; mid: 0.007±0.002 °K/year) over the Africa (Figure 1). The warmest temperature trend was observed over the eastern Saharan region, covering parts of Egypt, Libya, and the northern parts of Sudan, Chad and Niger. We have also compared the MSU-derived atmospheric temperature trends to ground-based temperature trends available for Egypt and some surrounding regions. The mean annual MSU tropospheric trends over the Saharan region are relatively low compared to other major Asian deserts, such as the Taklamakan and the Gobi Desert in the northern mid-latitudes, which show a trend of 0.037±0.008 °K/year (lower) and 0.025±0.006 °K/year (mid). The seasonal and month-to-month variability of temperature trends over Africa

  5. Relating temperature, snow height and glacier characteristics to streamflow trends in Western Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kormann, Christoph; Morin, Efrat; Renner, Maik; Francke, Till; Bronstert, Axel

    2014-05-01

    The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterised by mostly insignificant trends. This applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff: In our study region, Western Austria, we found that there is a trend gradient from high-altitude to low-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At mid-altitudes, trends are mostly insignificant. The trends were most probably caused by the following two main processes: On the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at high-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, increasing evapotranspiration results in decreasing trends at low-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To verify these theories, we attributed the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends on a daily basis, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. The daily trends were assessed by calculating 30-day moving average subsets and then estimating significance and magnitude. This allowed for the explicit pointing out of the exact days of year (DOY) when certain streamflow trends emerge and then relating them to the according DOYs of trends and annual cycles of other observed variables, e.g. the DOYs when snow height trends occur or the DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Concerning trends caused by increased glacial melt, we applied correlation analyses between glacier area and trend magnitudes during the corresponding DOYs. As a result, the positive trends in spring were attributed to an earlier and more intense snow melt. The ones that follow in late spring at upper stations could be related to increased glacial melt. The negative trends in summertime that turn up earlier at low-altitude stations and later at high-altitude stations are most

  6. Assessing the impact of satellite-based observations in sea surface temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Boyin; Liu, Chunying; Banzon, Viva F.; Zhang, Huai-Min; Karl, Thomas R.; Lawrimore, Jay H.; Vose, Russell S.

    2016-04-01

    Global trends of sea surface temperature (SST) are assessed for the existing and new experimental SST analyses that incorporate advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) observations from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites. These analyses show that globally and annually averaged SST trends over the 21st century (2000-2015) are similar to the trends for the full satellite record period (1982-2015), regardless of whether AVHRR data are included in the analyses. It is shown that appropriate bias correction is an important step to remove discontinuities of AVHRR data for consistent time series and trend analysis.

  7. Performance Testing of a High Temperature Linear Alternator for Stirling Convertors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Metscher, Jonathan F.; Geng, Steven M.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Glenn Research Center has conducted performance testing of a high temperature linear alternator (HTLA) in support of Stirling power convertor development for potential future Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). The high temperature linear alternator is a modified version of that used in Sunpower's Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), and is capable of operation at temperatures up to 200 deg. Increasing the temperature capability of the linear alternator could expand the mission set of future Stirling RPS designs. High temperature Neodymium-Iron-Boron (Nd-Fe-B) magnets were selected for the HTLA application, and were fully characterized and tested prior to use. Higher temperature epoxy for alternator assembly was also selected and tested for thermal stability and strength. A characterization test was performed on the HTLA to measure its performance at various amplitudes, loads, and temperatures. HTLA endurance testing at 200 deg is currently underway.

  8. Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    2002-01-01

    We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate

  9. Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Doutriaux, C.; Boyle, J. S.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, P. D.; Meehl, G. A.; Roeckner, E.; Sengupta, S.; Taylor, K. E.

    2001-11-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to remove the effects of explosive volcanic eruptions and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability from time series of globally averaged surface and tropospheric temperatures. Such work has largely ignored the nonzero correlation between volcanic signals and ENSO. Here we account for this collinearity using an iterative procedure. We remove estimated volcano and ENSO signals from the observed global mean temperature data, and then calculate trends over 1979-1999 in the residuals. Residual trends are sensitive to the choice of index used for removing ENSO effects and to uncertainties in key volcanic parameters. Despite these sensitivities, residual surface and lower tropospheric (2LT) trends are almost always larger than trends in the raw observational data. After removal of volcano and ENSO effects, the differential warming between the surface and lower troposphere is generally reduced. These results suggest that the net effect of volcanoes and ENSO over 1979-1999 was to reduce globally averaged surface and tropospheric temperatures and cool the troposphere by more than the surface. ENSO and incomplete volcanic forcing effects can hamper reliable assessment of the true correspondence between modeled and observed trends. In the second part of our study, we remove these effects from model data and compare simulated and observed residual trends. Residual temperature trends are not significantly different at the surface. In the lower troposphere the statistical significance of trend differences depends on the experiment considered, the choice of ENSO index, and the volcanic signal decay time. The simulated difference between surface and tropospheric warming rates is significantly smaller than observed in 51 out of 54 cases considered. We also examine multiple realizations of model experiments with relatively complete estimates of natural and anthropogenic forcing. ENSO and volcanic effects are not removed from these

  10. Multi-decadal Surface Temperature Trends and Extremes at Arctic Stations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uttal, T.; Makshtas, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic region is considered to be one where global temperatures are changing the most quickly; a number of factors make it the region where an accurate determination of surface temperature is the most difficult to measure or estimate. In developing a pan-Arctic perspective on Arctic in-situ temperature variability, several issues must be addressed including accounting for the different lengths of temperature records at different locations when comparing trends, accounting for the steep latitudinal controls on 'seasonal' trends, considering the often significant variability between different (sometimes a multitude) of temperature measurements made in the vicinity of a single station, and loss of detail information when data is ingested in a global archives or interpolated into gridded data sets. The International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (www.iasoa.org) is an internationally networked consortium of facilities that measure a wide range of meteorological and climate relevant parameters; temperature is the most fundamental of these parameters. Many of the observatories have the longest temperature records in the Arctic region including Barrow, Alaska (114 years), Tiksi, Russia (83 years), and Eureka, Canada (67 years). Using the IASOA data sets a detailed analysis is presented of temperature trends presented as a function of the beginning date from which the trend is calculated, seasonal trends considered in the context of the extreme Arctic solar ephemeris, and the variability in occurrence of annual extreme temperature events. At the Tiksi observatory, a complete record is available of 3-hourly temperatures 1932 to present that was constructed through digitization of decades of written records. This data set is used to investigate if calculated trends and variabilities are consistent with those calculated from daily minimum and maximum values archived by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Global Historical Climatology

  11. Establishing Long-Term Temperature Trends in California Amidst Data Set Variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Williams, P.

    2015-12-01

    Close attention is being paid to California's water resources amidst drought conditions including the Sierra Nevada snow pack depth. Warm conditions and warm winters contribute to reduced winter snow accumulations. We examine long-term trends (1920-2015) of average daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature as estimated by different long-term records, specifically: a) UCLA's West Coast Surface Water Monitor (SWM), b) the Parameter-Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), c) the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), and c) the National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC) (VOSE) data set. We also examine climatological values for Tmax and Tmin as estimated by Livneh et al. (J Clim., 2013) and Maurer et al. (J Clim., 2002) as these are related to the SWM gridded data set. We draw on station data from the U.S. Hydroclimatic Network (HCN) and the U.S. Cooperative Observer Network (COOP) and the temperatures published by NCDC as made available via ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us for comparison. Within each data set, Tmin has stronger uptrends than Tmax. For both Tmin and Tmax, all but one of the data sets have increasing (mostly statistically significant) trends. Minimum winter temperature trends range from 1.3-1.8 C/100 years across the state; maximum winter temperature trends range from near zero to 1.0 C/100 years. Maps of trend magnitudes at the grid cell level show a surprising lack of agreement in spatial pattern likely due to differences in how each data set was constructed. Some data sets show nearly uniform trends due to the use of spatial smoothing, while others show highly varied local trends. We evaluate differences among the data sets in the stations used, periods of record, and gridding algorithms in an attempt to account for the variations in inferred temperature trends.

  12. Linear and nonlinear effects of dominant drivers on the trends in global and regional land carbon uptake: 1959 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xuanze; Rayner, Peter J.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Silver, Jeremy D.; Lu, Xingjie; Pak, Bernard; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2016-02-01

    Changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, surface temperature, or precipitation have been identified to have significantly contributed to the estimated increase in the terrestrial carbon uptake rate over the last few decades; however, those analyses did not consider the interactions. Using the Australian community land surface model (Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange), we performed factorial experiments to quantify the importance of external drivers (climate drivers and atmospheric CO2) and their interactions on annual terrestrial carbon uptake (FL), excluding land use change and fires, from 1959 to 2013. Our model simulations show a trend of 0.025 ± 0.015 Pg C yr-2 (or ~1.5% yr-1) in global FL for 1959-2013, which is largely attributed to the positive influences of the increased atmospheric CO2 (0.050 ± 0.001 Pg C yr-2) and negative influences of changes in climate (-0.026 ± 0.014 Pg C yr-2). Globally, the contribution of the nonlinear effects of dominant drivers to the simulated trend in FL is small (<10%) but can be significant regionally (>35%), particularly in the boreal forests and semiarid regions. The interactions between temperature and CO2 or temperature and precipitation can dominate the simulated trend in parts of Europe, southeastern North America, southern China, and some semiarid regions. This modeling result suggests that the effects of nonlinear interactions of drivers on the trend of land carbon uptake should be considered in future studies.

  13. Detection of trends in days with extreme temperatures in Iran from 1961 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araghi, Alireza; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammad; Adamowski, Jan

    2016-07-01

    Human health and comfort, crop productivity, water resource availability, as well as other critical hydrological, climatological, and ecological parameters are heavily influenced by trends in daily temperature maxima and minima ( T d max, T d min, respectively). Using Mann-Kendall and sequential Mann-Kendall tests, trends in the number of days when T d max ≥ 30 °C or T d min ≤ 0 °C, over the period of 1961 to 2010, were examined for 30 synoptic meteorological stations in Iran. For 67 % of stations, days when T d min ≤ 0 °C showed a significant negative trend, while only 40 % of stations showed a significant positive trend in days when T d max ≥ 30 °C. The upward trend in T d max became significant between 1967 and 1975, according to the station, while the downward trend in T d min became significant between 1962 and 1974 for the same stations. Changes in precipitation type across most parts of the country show a high correlation with these temperature trends, especially with the negative trend in T d min. This suggests that future climatological and hydrological alterations within the country, along with ensuing climatic issues (e.g., change in precipitation, drought, etc.) will require a great deal more attention.

  14. Increasing positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice extent and associated surface temperature changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comiso, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    The maximum extent of the Antarctic sea ice in 2014 was more than 20 x 106 km2 which is likely the highest during the satellite era. The updated historical record of the sea ice cover, as derived from multichannel passive microwave data, now shows a trend of 2.05 ± 0.18% per decade and 2.70 ± 0.20 % per decade for ice extent and ice area, respectively. This indicates not only a continuation of the positive trend but also a slight increase in the trends reported previously. A newly enhanced sea ice concentration data actually yield slightly more modest trends in the sea ice extent and ice area of 1.55 ± 0.17 % per decade and 2.40 ± 0.20 % per decade, respectively. The difference is mainly due to an improved matching of calibrations in the enhanced data for the different satellite sensors that provide the historical time series. The updated data also show regional shifts in the trends with a decrease in the positive trend in the Ross Sea, a decrease in the negative trend in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, and an increase in the positive trend in the other sectors. Such shifts undermine the previous hypothesis that the positive trend of Antarctic sea ice is primarily caused by increases in ice production in the Ross Sea. On the other hand, it is observed that surface temperatures for the same period, as derived from satellite data, show a general cooling in areas near the ice margin. Surface temperatures are also shown to be highly correlated with the extent of the sea ice cover. Such results suggests that the assimilation of satellite surface temperature data in numerical climate models may be needed to improve the performance of these models and enable better agreements with the observed trends of sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere.

  15. Using daily temperature to predict phenology trends in spring flowers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jin-Hee; Kim, Soo-Ock; Kim, Dae-Jun; Moon, Kyung Hwan; Yun, Jin I.

    2015-05-01

    The spring season in Korea features a dynamic landscape with a variety of flowers blooming sequentially one after another. This enables local governments to earn substantial sightseeing revenues by hosting festivals featuring spring flowers. Furthermore, beekeepers move from the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula all the way northward in a quest to secure spring flowers as nectar sources for a sustained period of time. However, areal differences in flowering dates of flower species are narrowing, which has economic consequences. Analysis of data on flowering dates of forsythia ( Forsythia koreana) and cherry blossom ( Prunus serrulata), two typical spring flower species, as observed for the past 60 years at six weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) indicated that the difference between the flowering date of forsythia, the earliest blooming flower in spring, and cherry blossom, which flowers later than forsythia, was 14 days on average in the climatological normal year for the period 1951-1980, compared with 11 days for the period 1981-2010. In 2014, the gap narrowed further to 7 days, making it possible in some locations to see forsythias and cherry blossoms blooming at the same time. Synchronized flowering of these two flower species is due to acceleration of flowering due to an abnormally high spring temperature, and this was more pronounced in the later-blooming cherry blossom than forsythia. While cherry blossom flowering dates across the nation ranged from March 31 to April 19 (an areal difference of 20 days) for the 1951-1980 normal year, the difference ranged from March 29 to April 12 (an areal difference of 16 days) for the 1981-2010 normal year, and in 2014, the flowering dates spanned March 25 and March 30 (an areal difference of 6 days). In the case of forsythia, the gap was narrower than in cherry blossoms. Climate change in the Korean Peninsula, reflected by rapid temperature hikes in late spring in contrast to a slow

  16. Trends of urban surface temperature and heat island characteristics in the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benas, Nikolaos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Cartalis, Constantinos

    2016-09-01

    Urban air temperature studies usually focus on the urban canopy heat island phenomenon, whereby the city center experiences higher near surface air temperatures compared to its surrounding non-urban areas. The Land Surface Temperature (LST) is used instead of urban air temperature to identify the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI). In this study, the nighttime LST and SUHI characteristics and trends in the seventeen largest Mediterranean cities were investigated, by analyzing satellite observations for the period 2001-2012. SUHI averages and trends were based on an innovative approach of comparing urban pixels to randomly selected non-urban pixels, which carries the potential to better standardize satellite-derived SUHI estimations. A positive trend for both LST and SUHI for the majority of the examined cities was documented. Furthermore, a 0.1 °C decade-1 increase in urban LST corresponded to an increase in SUHI by about 0.04 °C decade-1. A longitudinal differentiation was found in the urban LST trends, with higher positive values appearing in the eastern Mediterranean. Examination of urban infrastructure and development factors during the same period revealed correlations with SUHI trends, which can be used to explain differences among cities. However, the majority of the cities examined show considerably increased trends in terms of the enhancement of SUHI. These findings are considered important so as to promote sustainable urbanization, as well as to support the development of heat island adaptation and mitigation plans in the Mediterranean.

  17. Relationship between ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere: Latitude and seasonal dependences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccormack, John P.; Hood, Lon L.

    1994-01-01

    A one-dimensional radiative transfer model with fixed dynamical heating is used to calculate the approximate latitude and seasonal dependences of lower stratospheric temperature changes associated with observed ozone trends. The spatial and temporal distribution of ozone profile trends in the lower stratosphere is estimated from a combination of Nimbus 7 Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) global measurements of the ozone column below 32 mbar for the period 1979-1990 and balloon ozonesonde profile trends at northern middle latitudes. The calculated temperature trends near 100 mbar compare favorably with those recently derived by Randel and Cobb (1994) using data from Channel 4 of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) on the NOAA operational satellites, although a number of quantitative differences are found. An independent analysis reported here of 100 mbar temperatures derived from northern hemisphere radiosonde data at the Free University of Berlin (FUB) supports the validity of the satellite-derived lower stratospheric temperature trends. These results are therefore generally consistent with the hypothesis that observed lower stratospheric cooling trends are predominantly determined by reductions in radiative heating associated with stratospheric ozone depletion.

  18. Fluctuating temperatures and ectotherm growth: distinguishing non-linear and time-dependent effects.

    PubMed

    Kingsolver, Joel G; Higgins, Jessica K; Augustine, Kate E

    2015-07-01

    Most terrestrial ectotherms experience diurnal and seasonal variation in temperature. Because thermal performance curves are non-linear, mean performance can differ in fluctuating and constant thermal environments. However, time-dependent effects--effects of the order and duration of exposure to temperature--can also influence mean performance. We quantified the non-linear and time-dependent effects of diurnally fluctuating temperatures for larval growth rates in the tobacco hornworm, Manduca sexta L., with four main results. First, the shape of the thermal performance curve for growth rate depended on the duration of exposure: for example, optimal temperature and thermal breadth were greater for growth rates measured over short (24 h during the last instar) compared with long (the entire period of larval growth) time periods. Second, larvae reared in diurnally fluctuating temperatures had significantly higher optimal temperatures and maximal growth rates than larvae reared in constant temperatures. Third, for larvae maintained at three mean temperatures (20, 25 and 30°C) and three diurnal temperature ranges (±0, ±5 and ±10°C), diurnal fluctuations had opposite effects on mean growth rates at low versus high mean temperature. Fourth, both short- and long-term thermal performance curves yielded poor predictions of the non-linear effects of fluctuating temperature on mean growth rates (compared with our experimental results) at higher mean temperatures. Our results suggest caution in using constant temperature studies to model the consequences of variable thermal environments. PMID:25987738

  19. Is there a trend in extremely high river temperature for the next decades? A case study for France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huguet, F.; Parey, S.; Dacunha-Castelle, D.; Malek, F.

    2008-02-01

    After 2003's summer heat wave, Electricité de France created a global plan called "heat wave-dryness". In this context, the present study tries to estimate high river temperatures for the next decades, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic evolutions. To do it, a specific methodology based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is applied. In particular, a trend analysis of water temperature data is done and included in EVT used. The studied river temperatures consist of mean daily temperatures for 27 years measured near the French power plants (between 1977 and 2003), with four series for the Rhône river, four for the Loire river and a few for other rivers. There are also three series of mean daily temperatures computed by a numerical model. For each series, we have applied statistical extreme value modelling. Because of thermal inertia, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is corrected by the medium cluster length, which represents thermal inertia of water during extremely hot events. The μ and σ parameters of the GEV distributions are taken as polynomial or continuous piecewise linear functions of time. The best functions for μ and σ parameters are chosen using Akaike criterion based on likelihood and some physical checking. For all series, the trend is positive for μ and not significant for σ, over the last 27 years. However, we cannot assign this evolution only to the climatic change for the Rhône river because the river temperature is the resultant of several causes: hydraulic or atmospheric, natural or related to the human activity. For the other rivers, the trend for μ could be assigned to the climatic change more clearly. Furthermore, the sample is too short to provide reliable return levels estimations for return periods exceeding thirty years. Still, quantitative return levels could be compared with physical models for example.

  20. First approach to the relationship between recent landscape changes and temperature trends in Spanish mainland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez Escolano, Carlos; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Salinas-Solé, Celia; Pueyo Campos, Angel; Brunetti, Miquele; Gonzalez-Hidalgo, Jose Carlos

    2016-04-01

    The recent analyses of monthly and seasonal Spanish mainland temperatures (1951-2010) at high spatial resolution using the MOTEDAS dataset shown that the monthly mean temperature values of maximum (Tmax) have risen mostly in late winter/early spring and the summer months, while the monthly mean temperature of minimum (Tmin) values have increased in summer, spring and autumn in southern areas. Consequently, a north-south gradient in diurnal temperature range (DTR) has been detected in summer months, with positive trends in the north and negative trends in the south, and negative pattern was found in the southeast in spring and autumn. During the same period, the Spanish mainland has suffered dramatic changes in the landscape related to urban and industrial sprawl, transportation infrastructures development, or the extension of irrigated areas for intensive agriculture. Those changes would be consistent with factors that affect Tmin, which are conditioned by the nature of the surfaces. In this research, we present the first approach to the relationship of temperature trend and landscapes changes at high spatial resolution in the Spanish mainland. Thus, we have compared the spatial distribution of temperature trend with changes in accessibility index and population potential simultaneously, and its spatial redistribution as indicator of landscape changes. The significance of temperature trends was evaluated by Mann-Kendal test, and its intensity by Seńs estimator. A mix model of population potential and accessibility index weighted by route factor has been used to assess landscape changes. Crosstab analysis was applied to identify the association between temperature trends and accessibility changes.

  1. Temporal and spatial trend detection of maximum air temperature in Iran during 1960-2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kousari, Mohammad Reza; Ahani, Hossein; Hendi-zadeh, Razieh

    2013-12-01

    Trends of maximum air temperature (T max) were investigated in three time scales including annual, seasonal, and monthly time series in 32 synoptic stations in the whole of Iran during 1960-2005. First, nonparametric Mann-Kendall test after removal of the lag-1 serial correlation component from the T max time series was used for trend detection and spatial distribution of various trends was mapped. Second, Sen's slope estimator was used to determine the median slope of positive or negative T max trends. Third, 10-year moving average low-pass filter was applied to facilitate the trend analysis and the smoothed time series derived from the mentioned filter were clustered in three clusters for each time series and then were plotted to show their spatial distribution patterns in Iran. Results showed that there are considerable significant positive trends of T max in warm months including April, June, July, August and September and warm seasons. These trends can be found in an annual time scale which indicated almost 50% positive trends. However, cold months and seasons did not exhibit a remarkable significant trend. Although it was rather difficult to detect particular spatial distribution of significant trends, some parts in west, north-east and south-east and central regions of the country showed more positive trends. In an annual time scale, Kermanshah located in west regions indicates most change at (+) 0.41 °C per decade. On the one hand, many clusters of normalized and filtered T max time series revealed the increasing trend after 1970 which has dramatically risen after around 1990. It is in accordance with many other findings for temperature time series from different countries and therefore, it can be generated from simultaneous changes in a bigger scale than regional one. On the other hand, the concentration of increasing trends of T max in warm seasons and their accordance to plants growing season in Iran can raise the importance of the role of frequent

  2. The effect of wind on long-term summer water temperature trends in Tokyo Bay, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Li-Feng; Onishi, Ryo; Takahashi, Keiko

    2015-06-01

    The effect of wind on summer water temperature trends in a semi-closed bay (Tokyo Bay, Japan) is examined through several numerical experiments using a high-resolution three-dimensional ocean model. The model is executed under no-wind and uniform southerly/northerly wind conditions, and monthly mean currents and temperature distributions and heat transport in Tokyo Bay for July are calculated. The model results show that wind has a significant effect on heat transport and temperature distribution in the bay. (1) When a southerly wind prevails northward cool water transport intensifies while southward warm water transport declines, thus decreasing the water temperature in the central bay area while increasing temperature at the bay head. (2) A northerly wind has an opposing effect and decreases the water temperature in coastal bay head area while increase the temperature along the southwest coast. The results also suggest that the trend of increasing southerly wind amplitude may have affected water temperature trends in Tokyo Bay from 1979 to 1997. The model results demonstrated that the an intensified southerly wind lowers water temperatures in most areas of the bay by enhancing upwelling and open ocean-water intrusion near the bay mouth while increases temperatures in the bottom layer of the bay head by suppressing southward warm water transport.

  3. [The linearity analysis of ultrahigh temperature FTIR spectral emissivity measurement system].

    PubMed

    Wang, Zong-wei; Dai, Jing-min; He, Xiao-wa; Yang, Chun-ling

    2012-02-01

    To study thermal radiation properties of special materials at high temperature in aerospace fields, the ultrahigh temperature spectral emissivity measurement system with Fourier spectrometer has been established. The linearity of system is the guarantee of emissivity measurement precision. Through measuring spectral radiation signals of a blackbody source at different temperatures, the function relations between spectral signal values and blackbody spectral radiation luminance of every spectrum points were calculated with the method of multi-temperature and multi-spectrum linear fitting. The spectral radiation signals of blackbody were measured between 1 000 degrees C and 2 000 degrees C in the spectral region from 3 to 20 microm. The linear relations between spectral signal and theory line at wavelength of 4 microm were calculated and introduced. The spectral response is well good between 4 and 18 microm, the spectral linearity are less than 1% except CO2 strong absorption spectrum regions. The results show that when the errors of measured spectrum radiation and linear fitting theory lines are certain, the higher the temperature, the smaller the spectral errors on emissivity. The linearity analysis of spectrum response is good at eliminating errors caused by individual temperature' disturbance to the spectra.

  4. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  5. Detection of temporal trends of α- and γ-chlordane in Lake Erie fish communities using dynamic linear modeling.

    PubMed

    Ekram Azim, M; Letchumanan, Michelle; Abu Rayash, Azzam; Shimoda, Yuko; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Arhonditsis, George B

    2011-07-01

    Dynamic linear modeling (DLM) analysis was performed to identify the long-term temporal trends of two toxic components of the technical chlordane pesticide, α- and γ-chlordane, in skinless-boneless muscle tissues of a number of sport fish species in Lake Erie. Our analysis considers the fish length as a covariate of the chlordane concentrations. The α-chlordane models for the coho salmon, channel catfish, rainbow trout, and common carp showed continuously decreasing trends during the entire 30+ year survey period (1976-2007). The γ-chlordane models demonstrated similar trends for the coho salmon, channel catfish, and common carp. These fish species had higher levels of α- and γ-chlordane in their muscle tissues. The α- and γ-chlordane levels in freshwater drum, smallmouth bass, walleye, white bass, whitefish, and yellow perch decreased until the mid-1980s and hovered at levels around the detection limits for the remaining period. The pesticide biotransformation process, the reduction of contaminant emissions to the environment, the feeding habits of the different fish species, and the food-web alterations induced by the introduction of aquatic invasive species are some of the hypotheses proposed to explain the observed temporal trends in different fish species in Lake Erie.

  6. Monitoring variability in trends of temperature and rainfall in the Apennine Alps (Middle Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Aprile, Fabrizio; Tapper, Nigel

    2016-04-01

    In 2006 the School of Geography and Environmental Sciences of Monash University in collaboration with the Italian Forest Corps (Corpo Forestale dello Stato), Uffici Territoriali per la Biodiversità di Vallombrosa (Florence) and Pratovecchio (Arezzo)started to monitor the variability in temperature and rainfall in the Tuscan Apennine Alps (Middle Italy). First results showed unexpected variability in trends of both the climate variables and in particular very high variability in similarity of trends among sites even at short distance. Although the time series are ultra-centenary in some sites, trends in temperature and rainfall at the monthly level would show a reduction in temperature and increase in rainfall in the last decade in some cases. This uncertainty poses the question whether the phenomenon was due to some anomaly in the periodical oscillations of 6-7 years of length (spectral Fourier analysis) or the dominant trends in variability of monthly temperature and monthly rainfall are unchanged. Recent analysis of trends would confirm warming and drying of climate in the Apennine Alps in Middle Italy; however, in some sites a relative cooling is shown in the 2000s. In the area, climate warming appears to reach levels that may have relevant implications for forest composition and shift. The relatively fast increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall during the last 3-4 decades further strengthens the importance to continue monitoring climate variability to a deeper level and extend the understanding of its effects at the local level.

  7. Evaluation of a Linear Mixing Model to Retrieve Soil and Vegetation Temperatures of Land Targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jinxin; Jia, Li; Cui, Yaokui; Zhou, Jie; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-03-01

    A simple linear mixing model of heterogeneous soil-vegetation system and retrieval of component temperatures from directional remote sensing measurements by inverting this model is evaluated in this paper using observations by a thermal camera. The thermal camera was used to obtain multi-angular TIR (Thermal Infra-Red) images over vegetable and orchard canopies. A whole thermal camera image was treated as a pixel of a satellite image to evaluate the model with the two-component system, i.e. soil and vegetation. The evaluation included two parts: evaluation of the linear mixing model and evaluation of the inversion of the model to retrieve component temperatures. For evaluation of the linear mixing model, the RMSE is 0.2 K between the observed and modelled brightness temperatures, which indicates that the linear mixing model works well under most conditions. For evaluation of the model inversion, the RMSE between the model retrieved and the observed vegetation temperatures is 1.6K, correspondingly, the RMSE between the observed and retrieved soil temperatures is 2.0K. According to the evaluation of the sensitivity of retrieved component temperatures on fractional cover, the linear mixing model gives more accurate retrieval accuracies for both soil and vegetation temperatures under intermediate fractional cover conditions.

  8. Trends and temperature sensitivity of moisture conditions in the conterminous United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2002-01-01

    Observed (1895-1999) trends in climatic moisture conditions in the conterminous United States (US) characterized by (1) annual precipitation minus annual potential evapotranspiration (PMPE), (2) annual surplus (water that eventually becomes streamflow), and (3) annual deficit (the amount of water that must be supplied by irrigation to grow vegetation at an optimum rate) are examined. The sensitivity of moisture conditions across the conterminous US to increases in temperature also are examined. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant trends in PMPE, annual surplus, and annual deficit for some parts of the conterminous US. Most of the significant trends in PMPE have been increasing trends primarily in the eastern US. Annual surplus also has increased over the eastern US, whereas the magnitudes of annual deficit have decreased. For the conterminous US as a whole, there has been a statistically significant increase in PMPE and annual surplus; however, there is no significant trend in annual deficit. Results also indicate that PMPE and annual deficit in the warmest regions of the conterminous US are most sensitive to increase in temperature. The high sensitivity of PMPE and annual deficit in these regions to increases in temperature is related to the relation between temperature and the saturation vapor pressure of air. The increases in potential evapotranspiration for a given change in temperature are larger for high temperatures than for low temperatures. The regions with the highest sensitivity of annual surplus to increases in temperature are the humid regions of the country. In these regions, annual surplus is large and increased potential evapotranspiration, resulting from increased temperature, has a significant effect on reducing annual surplus. In the dry regions of the country, annual surplus is so low that increases in potential evapotranspiration only result in small decreases in annual surplus.

  9. Self-focusing and defocusing of Gaussian laser beams in plasmas with linear temperature ramp

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou Zhongxiang; Wang Ying; Yuan Chengxun; Du Yanwei

    2011-07-15

    The propagation characteristics of the Gaussian laser beam in plasmas in the presence of a linear electron temperature ramp have been investigated by taking the electron temperature as an individual variable. The ponderomotive force and collision have been considered as the mechanisms of nonlinearity. The second order differential equation of the dimensionless beam-width parameter has been acquired and solved with several initial electron temperatures and plus-minus temperature ramp parameters. The propagation regimes of laser beam are found to be sensitive with the selection of electron temperature. The linear temperature ramp breaks the stationary propagating mode and enhances the self-focusing or defocusing propagation properties. Results indicate the feasibility of extended propagation of focused laser beam in plasmas by modifying the electron temperature.

  10. Long-term trend of aerosol optical depth derived from MODIS Aqua using linear regression and ensemble empirical mode decomposition over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KIM, J.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosol has played an important role in air quality for short term and climate change for long term. Especially, it is important to understand how aerosol optical depth (AOD) has changed to date for the prognosis of future atmospheric state and radiation budget which are related to human life. In this study, the trend of AOD at 550 nm from MODIS Aqua (MYD08) was estimated for 10 years from 2004 to 2014 using linear regression method and ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (EEMD). Search region was selected to East Asia [18.5°N-51.5°N, 85.5°E-150.5°E] which is considered to be of great interest in emission source. The result of linear regression shows remarkably increasing trend in North and East China including Sanjiang, Hailun, Beijing, Beijing forest and Jinozhou Bay, than rather downward trend in other neighboring regions. Actually, however, AOD has seasonality itself and its trend is also affected by external source consistently, so non-linear trend analysis was conducted to analyze the changing tendency of AOD trends. Consequently, secular trends of AOD defined by EEMD showed almost similar values over the entire region, but their shapes over time are quite different with those of linear regression. Here, AOD linear trend in Beijing has monotonically increased [0.03% yr-1] since 2004, but its non-linear trend shows that initial increasing trend has alleviated and even turned into downward trend from about 2010. Lastly, the validation of MODIS AOD with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) was conducted additionally which showed fairly good agreement with those of AERONET (R=0.901, RMSE=0.226, MAE=0.031, MBE=-0.001).

  11. Temperature trends and extremes from long climatological records at Barrow, Alaska and Tiksi, Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uttal, Taneil; Makshtas, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    In the International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (www.IASOA.org) Barrow Alaska and Tiksi, Russia are sites with two of the longest climatological records dating from 1901 and 1936 respectively. Tiksi and Barrow are also particularly useful sites for comparing Arctic regional variability because they are located at nearly the same latitude (71.325 N and 71.596 N respectively). When making comparison of temperature trends and extremes, this fortunate coincidence allows elimination of the annual variability of incoming solar irradiance as one of the major factors controlling the variability of temperature when considering annual, seasonal, interannual and decadal changes. Although temperature is one of the most basic of environmental parameters measured globally on a routine basis, acquiring temperature records for analysis requires making choices about sources which may apply different quality control and averaging protocols affecting calculations especially of extremes. Records are available from the U.S. NOAA National Climatic Data Center and the Climate Research Unit of the U.K. Met Office. In addition, historical data rescue digitized data sets for Tiksi are available from the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute. Using these records a detailed analysis and comparison of temperature trends and extremes is performed. The temperature trends are examined using unique method whereby the variation of the trend itself is examined as a function of start year. Differences in statistics of extremes is examined for average, minimum and maximum temperatures. The trends and extremes are then compared between Barrow and Tiksi to determine if it is possible make a first order determination of relationships to larger scale circulation patterns.

  12. [Research on explosive temperature network monitoring system based on the linear frequency shift of spectrum].

    PubMed

    Wen, Qiang; Lian, Su-Jie; Zhang, Chen; Zhao, Hui; Zhao, Yu; Wang, Gao; Xu, De-Gang; Yao, Jian-Quan

    2014-03-01

    In order to obtain the different position temperature changes in the process of explosive casting accurate, stability and comprehensive, we designed the temperature monitoring system based on fiber Bragg grating spectral shift. Through the fiberoptic network, the system can monitor the different point temperature of melt-cast explosive real-time. According to the function of linear frequency shift of fiber Bragg grating wavelength with the grating of temperature, we get the temperature of different positions. Four channels share a broadband light source with a coupler. The Bragg wavelengths of the 5 gratings of each fiber are separated from each other. Using the gratings designed, spliced and packaged by our own, we can obtain temperature data through the demodulator. The temperature data was processed by the Origin to draw diagram time-temperature curve. The results show that the measured temperature data of the fiber Bragg grating can meet the requirements of experiment.

  13. Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Horton, Daniel E; Johnson, Nathaniel C; Singh, Deepti; Swain, Daniel L; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

    2015-06-25

    Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth's atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Using self-organizing map cluster analysis, we detect robust circulation pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979-2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea-ice decline (1990-2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer and autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence and maximum duration of regional circulation patterns. PMID:26108856

  14. Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Springtime Cooling Trend of the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garfinkel, Chaim; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2015-04-01

    The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  15. Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunkerton, Timothy J.

    2000-01-01

    Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

  16. A high-temperature double-mode piezoelectric ultrasonic linear motor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiaotian; Chen, Jianguo; Chen, Zhijiang; Dong, Shuxiang

    2012-08-01

    A miniature piezoelectric ultrasonic linear motor (piezoelectric vibrator sizes: 4.7 × 13.5 × 2 mm3) has been studied for precise actuation at 200 °C high-temperature. This piezoelectric linear motor was made of (1-x)BiScO3-xPbTiO3 piezoelectric ceramic with a high curie temperature (428 °C) and it was operated in first longitudinal and the second bending double-mode. Our experimental results showed that the linear motor moves smoothly at the temperature as high as 200 °C with a driving force of 0.35 N and a speed up to 42 mm/s.

  17. Tempo-spatial characteristics of sub-daily temperature trends in mainland China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yuyu; Parker, David; Ren, Guoyu; Dunn, Robert

    2016-05-01

    The spatial and temporal pattern of sub-daily temperature change in mainland China was analysed for the period from 1973 to 2011 using a 3-hourly dataset based on 408 stations. The increase in surface air temperature was more significant by night between 1973 and 1992, with the fastest upward trend around local midnight being about 0.27 °C/decade, while it was more significant by day between 1992 and 2011, with the fastest upward trend being about 0.46 °C/decade in mid-late morning. The season with rapid temperature increase also shifted from winter in 1973-1992 (the largest increase happened near midnight in December, 0.75 °C/decade) to spring in 1992-2011 (the largest increase happened at in the early afternoon in March, 0.82 °C/decade). The change in the spatial distributions of the sub-daily temperature trends shows that Northeast China warmed more significantly in 1973-1992 than elsewhere, but it cooled in 1992-2011, when Southwest China was the new focus of temperature increase whereas it had previously been cooling. A preliminary analysis of the possible causes implies that changes in solar radiation, cloud cover, aerosols and the observational environments near the stations might have contributed to these observed temperature changes.

  18. Recent surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica from borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muto, A.; Scambos, T.A.; Steffen, K.; Slater, A.G.; Clow, G.D.

    2011-01-01

    We use measured firn temperatures down to depths of 80 to 90 m at four locations in the interior of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica to derive surface temperature histories spanning the past few decades using two different inverse methods. We find that the mean surface temperatures near the ice divide (the highest-elevation ridge of East Antarctic Ice Sheet) have increased approximately 1 to 1.5 K within the past ???50 years, although the onset and rate of this warming vary by site. Histories at two locations, NUS07-5 (78.65S, 35.64E) and NUS07-7 (82.07S, 54.89E), suggest that the majority of this warming took place in the past one or two decades. Slight cooling to no change was indicated at one location, NUS08-5 (82.63S, 17.87E), off the divide near the Recovery Lakes region. In the most recent decade, inversion results indicate both cooler and warmer periods at different sites due to high interannual variability and relatively high resolution of the inverted surface temperature histories. The overall results of our analysis fit a pattern of recent climate trends emerging from several sources of the Antarctic temperature reconstructions: there is a contrast in surface temperature trends possibly related to altitude in this part of East Antarctica. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Uncovering Local Trends in Genetic Effects of Multiple Phenotypes via Functional Linear Models.

    PubMed

    Vsevolozhskaya, Olga A; Zaykin, Dmitri V; Barondess, David A; Tong, Xiaoren; Jadhav, Sneha; Lu, Qing

    2016-04-01

    Recent technological advances equipped researchers with capabilities that go beyond traditional genotyping of loci known to be polymorphic in a general population. Genetic sequences of study participants can now be assessed directly. This capability removed technology-driven bias toward scoring predominantly common polymorphisms and let researchers reveal a wealth of rare and sample-specific variants. Although the relative contributions of rare and common polymorphisms to trait variation are being debated, researchers are faced with the need for new statistical tools for simultaneous evaluation of all variants within a region. Several research groups demonstrated flexibility and good statistical power of the functional linear model approach. In this work we extend previous developments to allow inclusion of multiple traits and adjustment for additional covariates. Our functional approach is unique in that it provides a nuanced depiction of effects and interactions for the variables in the model by representing them as curves varying over a genetic region. We demonstrate flexibility and competitive power of our approach by contrasting its performance with commonly used statistical tools and illustrate its potential for discovery and characterization of genetic architecture of complex traits using sequencing data from the Dallas Heart Study. PMID:27027515

  20. Uncovering Local Trends in Genetic Effects of Multiple Phenotypes via Functional Linear Models.

    PubMed

    Vsevolozhskaya, Olga A; Zaykin, Dmitri V; Barondess, David A; Tong, Xiaoren; Jadhav, Sneha; Lu, Qing

    2016-04-01

    Recent technological advances equipped researchers with capabilities that go beyond traditional genotyping of loci known to be polymorphic in a general population. Genetic sequences of study participants can now be assessed directly. This capability removed technology-driven bias toward scoring predominantly common polymorphisms and let researchers reveal a wealth of rare and sample-specific variants. Although the relative contributions of rare and common polymorphisms to trait variation are being debated, researchers are faced with the need for new statistical tools for simultaneous evaluation of all variants within a region. Several research groups demonstrated flexibility and good statistical power of the functional linear model approach. In this work we extend previous developments to allow inclusion of multiple traits and adjustment for additional covariates. Our functional approach is unique in that it provides a nuanced depiction of effects and interactions for the variables in the model by representing them as curves varying over a genetic region. We demonstrate flexibility and competitive power of our approach by contrasting its performance with commonly used statistical tools and illustrate its potential for discovery and characterization of genetic architecture of complex traits using sequencing data from the Dallas Heart Study.

  1. Spatial distribution of temperature trends and extremes over Maharashtra and Karnataka States of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhorde, Amit G.; Korade, Mahendra S.; Dhorde, Anargha A.

    2016-07-01

    Earth surface temperatures are changing worldwide together with the changes in the extreme temperatures. The present study investigates trends and variations of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and their effects on seasonal fluctuations at different climatological stations of Maharashtra and Karnataka states of India. Trend analysis was performed on annual and seasonal mean maximum temperature (TMAX) and mean minimum temperature (TMIN) for the period 1969 to 2006. During the last 38 years, an increase in annual TMAX and TMIN has occurred. At most of the locations, the increase in TMAX was faster than the TMIN, resulting in an increase in diurnal temperature range. At the same time, annual mean temperature (TM) showed a significant increase over the study area. Percentiles were used to identify extreme temperature indices. An increase in occurrence of warm extremes was observed at southern locations, and cold extremes increased over the central and northeastern part of the study area. Occurrences of cold wave conditions have decreased rapidly compared to heat wave conditions.

  2. The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muslih, Khamis Daham; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

    2016-08-01

    Mean annual and monthly averages of mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature from seven stations in Iraq were analysed to detect the inter-annual variation, long-term temporal and spatial trends distribution over the period 1941-2013. Due to non-homogeneous problems, this period has been divided into two short separated periods (1941-1980 and 1995-2013), in order to compute temperature trends. In this context two statistical tests were used: linear regression and Mann-Kendall. The time series of mean annual temperature indicate the current warming period over Iraq identical with the global warming, which has started since the middle of seventh decade of the last century. The 2010 was the warmest year in all stations. Three distinct inter-annual temperature variation patterns were observed. These were probably the effects of micro-scale and meso-scale factors. The first one represents central and northern Iraq. The second represents the south of Iraq and Kirkuk station and the third one is a characteristic for eastern Iraq. Temperature trend analysis revealed that there are general upward trends with the strongest warming trends identified in the summer months which are around 89 % of the total significant monthly trends. Spatially, in both periods the southern region of Iraq is most affected by the warming trend in Tmean and Tmax. When considering Tmin, the southern and northern regions both are affected by warming with more pronounced trend intensity in the northern stations. No significant trend occurs Hai station in both periods and Baghdad has the still less trend value. In the first period the highest rise of Tmean and Tmax values are observed in July and June in Nasiriya station at 0.61 °C/decade and 0.63 °C/decade, respectively and in Mosul station for Tmin in August is 1.41 °C/decade. Moreover, in the period from 1995 to 2013, the highest warming trend of Tmean and Tmax were in Hai station for March at 1.48 °C/decade and at 1.85

  3. All-Digital Time-Domain CMOS Smart Temperature Sensor with On-Chip Linearity Enhancement.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Chao-Lieh; Lin, Yi

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes the first all-digital on-chip linearity enhancement technique for improving the accuracy of the time-domain complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) smart temperature sensor. To facilitate on-chip application and intellectual property reuse, an all-digital time-domain smart temperature sensor was implemented using 90 nm Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Although the inverter-based temperature sensor has a smaller circuit area and lower complexity, two-point calibration must be used to achieve an acceptable inaccuracy. With the help of a calibration circuit, the influence of process variations was reduced greatly for one-point calibration support, reducing the test costs and time. However, the sensor response still exhibited a large curvature, which substantially affected the accuracy of the sensor. Thus, an on-chip linearity-enhanced circuit is proposed to linearize the curve and achieve a new linearity-enhanced output. The sensor was implemented on eight different Xilinx FPGA using 118 slices per sensor in each FPGA to demonstrate the benefits of the linearization. Compared with the unlinearized version, the maximal inaccuracy of the linearized version decreased from 5 °C to 2.5 °C after one-point calibration in a range of -20 °C to 100 °C. The sensor consumed 95 μW using 1 kSa/s. The proposed linearity enhancement technique significantly improves temperature sensing accuracy, avoiding costly curvature compensation while it is fully synthesizable for future Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) system. PMID:26840316

  4. All-Digital Time-Domain CMOS Smart Temperature Sensor with On-Chip Linearity Enhancement.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Chao-Lieh; Lin, Yi

    2016-01-30

    This paper proposes the first all-digital on-chip linearity enhancement technique for improving the accuracy of the time-domain complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) smart temperature sensor. To facilitate on-chip application and intellectual property reuse, an all-digital time-domain smart temperature sensor was implemented using 90 nm Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Although the inverter-based temperature sensor has a smaller circuit area and lower complexity, two-point calibration must be used to achieve an acceptable inaccuracy. With the help of a calibration circuit, the influence of process variations was reduced greatly for one-point calibration support, reducing the test costs and time. However, the sensor response still exhibited a large curvature, which substantially affected the accuracy of the sensor. Thus, an on-chip linearity-enhanced circuit is proposed to linearize the curve and achieve a new linearity-enhanced output. The sensor was implemented on eight different Xilinx FPGA using 118 slices per sensor in each FPGA to demonstrate the benefits of the linearization. Compared with the unlinearized version, the maximal inaccuracy of the linearized version decreased from 5 °C to 2.5 °C after one-point calibration in a range of -20 °C to 100 °C. The sensor consumed 95 μW using 1 kSa/s. The proposed linearity enhancement technique significantly improves temperature sensing accuracy, avoiding costly curvature compensation while it is fully synthesizable for future Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) system.

  5. All-Digital Time-Domain CMOS Smart Temperature Sensor with On-Chip Linearity Enhancement

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chun-Chi; Chen, Chao-Lieh; Lin, Yi

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes the first all-digital on-chip linearity enhancement technique for improving the accuracy of the time-domain complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) smart temperature sensor. To facilitate on-chip application and intellectual property reuse, an all-digital time-domain smart temperature sensor was implemented using 90 nm Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Although the inverter-based temperature sensor has a smaller circuit area and lower complexity, two-point calibration must be used to achieve an acceptable inaccuracy. With the help of a calibration circuit, the influence of process variations was reduced greatly for one-point calibration support, reducing the test costs and time. However, the sensor response still exhibited a large curvature, which substantially affected the accuracy of the sensor. Thus, an on-chip linearity-enhanced circuit is proposed to linearize the curve and achieve a new linearity-enhanced output. The sensor was implemented on eight different Xilinx FPGA using 118 slices per sensor in each FPGA to demonstrate the benefits of the linearization. Compared with the unlinearized version, the maximal inaccuracy of the linearized version decreased from 5 °C to 2.5 °C after one-point calibration in a range of −20 °C to 100 °C. The sensor consumed 95 μW using 1 kSa/s. The proposed linearity enhancement technique significantly improves temperature sensing accuracy, avoiding costly curvature compensation while it is fully synthesizable for future Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) system. PMID:26840316

  6. The contribution of greenhouse gases to the recent slowdown in global-mean temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Checa-Garcia, R.; Shine, K. P.; Hegglin, M. I.

    2016-09-01

    The recent slowdown in the rate of increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has generated extensive discussion, but little attention has been given to the contribution of time-varying trends in greenhouse gas concentrations. We use a simple model approach to quantify this contribution. Between 1985 and 2003, greenhouse gases (including well-mixed greenhouse gases, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, and stratospheric water vapour from methane oxidation) caused a reduction in GMST trend of around 0.03-0.05 K decade-1 which is around 18%-25% of the observed trend over that period. The main contributors to this reduction are the rapid change in the growth rates of ozone-depleting gases (with this contribution slightly opposed by stratospheric ozone depletion itself) and the weakening in growth rates of methane and tropospheric ozone radiative forcing. Although CO2 is the dominant greenhouse gas contributor to GMST trends, the continued increase in CO2 concentrations offsets only about 30% of the simulated trend reduction due to these other contributors. These results emphasize that trends in non-CO2 greenhouse gas concentrations can make significant positive and negative contributions to changes in the rate of warming, and that they need to be considered more closely in analyses of the causes of such variations.

  7. Diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Mekonnen, Ademe; Jha, Manoj K.

    2015-06-01

    This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trend in the diurnal surface air temperature range (DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950-2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen approach, respectively. Statewide significant trends (p < 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. Highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude - 0.19 (- 0.031) °C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trend in DTR have been highlighted. Historical data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.

  8. Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

    2015-04-01

    This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

  9. Air- and Stream-Water-Temperature Trends in the Chesapeake Bay Region, 1960-2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jastram, John D.; Rice, Karen C.

    2015-12-14

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses indicators that “represent the state or trend of certain environmental or societal conditions … to track and better understand the effects of changes in the Earth’s climate” (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014). Updates to these indicators are published biennially by the EPA. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the EPA, has completed analyses of air- and stream-water-temperature trends in the Chesapeake Bay region to be included as an indicator in a future release of the EPA report.

  10. Air- and Stream-Water-Temperature Trends in the Chesapeake Bay Region, 1960-2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jastram, John D.; Rice, Karen C.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses indicators that “represent the state or trend of certain environmental or societal conditions … to track and better understand the effects of changes in the Earth’s climate” (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014). Updates to these indicators are published biennially by the EPA. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the EPA, has completed analyses of air- and stream-water-temperature trends in the Chesapeake Bay region to be included as an indicator in a future release of the EPA report.

  11. Pan-Arctic trends (1982-2006) in temperature and bioclimatological indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luus, K. A.; Kelly, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    Warming induced changes in Arctic vegetation have to date been studied mostly through field studies, or through the examination of trends in a single bioclimatological indicator over time. The central objective of this study was to analyze pan-Arctic trends in temperature in relation to four established bioclimatological indicators: spring onset, autumn onset, maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and total annual Net Primary Productivity (NPP). A secondary objective was to assess agreement in short-term trends between model and field measured NPP. The following data sources were used: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Polar Pathfinder Extended for temperature; 2) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies for NDVI; and 3) Global Productivity Efficiency Model for NPP. Data sets were processed in Matlab, and regional scale trends were analyzed statistically using Mann-Kendall's test and Sen's slope. Increases in temperature, total annual NPP and maximum annual NDVI were observed. Many of the observed rises are located in regions of Alaska that have been the focus of numerous field studies. Increases in NDVI and NPP were found to be closely associated with increases in temperature, which indicates warming induced changes in Arctic carbon cycling and biomass. Variations in spring and autumn onset dates were largely non-significant although field studies have found significant shifts to earlier spring onset. Comparisons of the model NPP trend to a time series of field NPP estimates indicated low agreement, indicating a need for better calibration of Arctic NPP estimates. Conclusions focus on implications of these findings for future work.

  12. Upper-air temperature change trends above arid region of Northwest China during 1960-2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Zhongsheng; Chen, Yaning; Xu, Jianhua; Bai, Ling

    2015-04-01

    This study summarized upper-air temperature change trends based on the monthly datasets of 14 sounding stations in the arid region of Northwest China during 1960-2009. Over the investigated period, the change in upper-air temperature measured at eight standard pressure levels shows that an obvious warming at 850-400 hPa, which decreases with altitude, changes to an apparent cooling at 300-50 hPa. There is a positive correlation between the surface and 850-300-hPa temperatures, but a negative correlation between the surface and 200-50-hPa temperatures. Over the full 1960-2009 record, patterns of statistically significant mid-lower tropospheric warming and upper tropospheric and mid-lower stratospheric cooling are clearly evident. Also, the annual temperature cycle indicates that the peak temperature shifts from July in the troposphere to February in the mid-lower stratosphere, suggesting the importance of seasonal trend analysis. We found that the warming in the mid-lower troposphere is more pronounced during the summer, autumn, and winter, whereas the cooling in the upper troposphere and mid-lower stratosphere is larger during the summer and autumn. Furthermore, there are also many regional differences in the upper-air temperature change, regardless of both season and layer.

  13. High temperature garnet growth in New England: regional temperature-time trends revealed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sullivan, N.; Ostwald, C.; Chu, X.; Baxter, E. F.; Ague, J. J.; Eckert, J. O.

    2013-12-01

    A series of localized ultrahigh-temperature (UHT)/high-temperature (HT) granulite facies regions have been identified within the regional amphibolite facies metamorphic zone of the Central Maine Terrane stretching from north-central New Hampshire, through central Massachusetts, and into northeastern Connecticut. Here, we aim to constrain the age and peak temperature of metamorphism at three localities within this region: Bristol, NH, Phillipston, MA and Willington, CT. Garnet-forming reactions are linked directly to peak metamorphic temperatures through thermodynamic modeling and/or Zr-in-rutile thermometry. Precise garnet geochronology allows us to identify the timing of these peak temperatures, as well as the duration of garnet growth. Geochronologic and thermodynamic work was done on 12 samples collected throughout a ~5 km2 metamorphic 'hotspot' previously identified in Bristol, NH (Chamberlain and Rumble, 1988; Journal of Petrology). The highest temperature assemblage within this hotspot is characterized by the presence of garnet + sillimanite + K-feldspar + cordierite and reached temperatures >820οC. The lowest temperature periphery of the hotspot is characterized by sillimanite + muscovite + K-feldspar + minor garnet and reached a maximum temperature of 650οC. Bulk garnet ages from samples within the hotspot range significantly from at least 400.0 × 2.5 Ma to 352.7 × 1.8 Ma with the youngest ages associated with the lower temperature samples. This collection of ages indicates a prolonged period (~50 Ma) of >650οC temperatures interspersed by period(s) of garnet growth. Zoned garnet geochronology will help reveal whether garnet growth and related heating was continuous or episodic. Further south, in Phillipston, MA, zoned garnet geochronology performed on a 2.5 cm diameter garnet porphyroblast indicates garnet growth spanning 389 - 363 Ma, reaching peak temperatures at the end of that time span of 920-940οC, followed by a younger event recorded in

  14. Kaon condensation in the linear sigma model at finite density and temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Tran Huu Phat; Nguyen Van Long; Nguyen Tuan Anh; Le Viet Hoa

    2008-11-15

    Basing on the Cornwall-Jackiw-Tomboulis effective action approach we formulate a theoretical formalism for studying kaon condensation in the linear sigma model at finite density and temperature. We derive the renormalized effective potential in the Hartree-Fock approximation, which preserves the Goldstone theorem. This quantity is then used to consider physical properties of kaon matter.

  15. Temperature trends and variability in the Greater Horn of Africa: interactions with precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camberlin, Pierre

    2016-03-01

    Relationships between daily precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tx and Tn, respectively) are analyzed at station level over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Rainfall occurrence is associated with either above normal Tn (mostly in cool highland areas) or below normal Tn (especially lowland, hot environments and early parts of the rainy season). Tx generally displays a more consistent response to rainfall occurrence, with cooling peaking 1 day after the rainfall event. However there is often a persistence of this cooling several days after the rainfall event, and the amplitude of the cooling is also greater for heavy rainfall events. These temperature anomalies are thought to be a response to cloudiness (concurrent reduced Tx and concurrent enhanced Tn) and soil moisture (reduced Tx and Tn, suggested to reflect evaporative cooling). These relationships are of relevance to the interpretation of temperature trends. From 1973 to 2013, the GHA shows a clear warming signal, for both Tn (+0.20 to +0.25 °C/decade depending on seasons) and Tx (+0.17 to +0.22 °C/decade). Rainfall shows both negative (mostly between February and July) and positive trends (mostly in October-December). Given the superimposition of temperature and rainfall trends in parts of the GHA and the covariations between daily rainfall and both Tx and Tn, regression models are used to extract the rainfall influence on temperature, accounting for lag effects up to 4 days. The daily residuals from these models are used to depict temperature variations independent from precipitation variations. At some stations, trends computed on these residuals noticeably differ from the raw Tx trends. When averaged across the GHA, these effects do not exceed -0.06 to +0.03 °C/decade (depending on the month) for Tx, and are marginal for Tn, thus do not strongly modify the magnitude of the warming in the last 40 years. Nevertheless, these results show that precipitation-temperature relationships must

  16. Physical Mechanisms of Tropical Climate Feedbacks Revealed by Temperature and Moisture Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferraro, A. J.; Lambert, F. H.; Collins, M.; Miles, G.

    2015-12-01

    Although climate models' water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks are anti-correlated on a global scale, no such relationship is seen on regional scales. What determines the regional structure of these feedbacks? Here we compare the modelled behaviour of tropical climate feedback processes with satellite observations over the period 1979-2010. We use data from the High-Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS) Channel 12 (~6.3 microns) to quantify changes in upper-tropospheric relative humidity. Investigating the regional structure of trends in tropospheric temperature and humidity, we discover consistent signatures of processes driving lapse rate and water vapour feedbacks across climate models and observational datasets.Upper-tropospheric warming trends are relatively constant over the Tropics because the tropical atmosphere is unable to maintain strong temperature gradients. The regional structures of upper-tropospheric warming are similar between models and observations. Therefore, the majority of the regional variation in tropical lapse rate feedback actually comes from regional variation in surface temperature changes, not tropospheric temperature changes. Upper-tropospheric moistening is mainly sensitive to regional precipitation trends. The degree to which moistening in the convective zones is transmitted to other parts of the tropics is central to determining the regional pattern of the water vapour feedback. These relationships could provide process-based metrics of climate models' ability to simulate the physical processes driving tropical water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks.

  17. Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in the Syr Darya Basin in Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning

    2015-05-01

    By investigating temperature and precipitation data from eight meteorological stations in the Syr Darya Basin (SDB) during 1881-2011 and 1891-2011, we analyzed trends using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Our results indicated that there was a notable increasing trend in annual temperature of 0.14 °C/decade ( P < 0.05) and step change points in 1989 ( P < 0.05). Similarly, annual precipitation showed a significant rising trend ( P < 0.001) at a rate of 4.44 mm/decade and step change points in 1991 ( P < 0.05). Overall, temperature and precipitation increases were more rapid in the plains than in the mountain areas. Furthermore, we found that temperature in the SDB region is strongly associated with the Asian Polar Vortex Area Index (APVAI, correlation coefficient: R = -0.701, P < 0.01) rather than with carbon dioxide emissions, especially in the plains area. For precipitation, the correlation coefficient is strongly associated with the Tibet Plateau Index (TPI, R = 0.490, P < 0.01), followed by the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAOI, R = 0.343, P < 0.01), and the correlations in the plains are higher than those in the mountains. It is anticipated that the results of this study will further the understanding surrounding climate change in the SDB.

  18. Trends of surface humidity and temperature during 1951-2012 in Beijing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Q.; Xu, Z.; Peng, D.; Yang, X.; Yang, G.

    2015-05-01

    In this paper, two datasets, a long time series (1951-2012) of daily surface observations at one meteorological station and a shorter time series (1979-2012) of three-hourly data with 0.1°×0.1° spatial resolution were analysed by using non-parametric methods to identify annual and seasonal variations in surface humidity and temperature. The results reveal that: (1) saturation water vapour pressure increased exponentially with temperature. Actual daily values at Beijing Meteorological Station are very close to the theoretical values estimated by using the simplified Clausius-Clapeyron equation, but with seasonal variations. (2) For both long- and short-term data, clear increasing tendencies of annual saturation specific humidity and temperature are found. Decreasing and drying trends were detected for winter. (3) The annual relative humidity showed a decreasing trend except for some suburban areas, somehow related to the lower temperature and increased specific humidity in those areas. (4) Regional changes in topography and elevation likely influenced trends in surface humidity, while local land use showed little effect on it.

  19. Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hale, R.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Owen, T.W.; Loveland, T.R.

    2006-01-01

    Alterations in land use/land cover (LULC) in areas near meteorological observation stations can influence the measurement of climatological variables such as temperature. Urbanization near climate stations has been the focus of considerable research attention, however conversions between non-urban LULC classes may also have an impact. In this study, trends of minimum, maximum, and average temperature at 366 U.S. Climate Normals stations are analyzed based on changes in LULC defined by the U.S. Land Cover Trends Project. Results indicate relatively few significant temperature trends before periods of greatest LULC change, and these are generally evenly divided between warming and cooling trends. In contrast, after the period of greatest LULC change was observed, 95% of the stations that exhibited significant trends (minimum, maximum, or mean temperature) displayed warming trends. Copyriht 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  1. Interannual Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Level from Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebedev, S. A.

    As is shown in last years researches climate changes in Antarctic result in interannual increase trend of surface air temperature and decrease of ice thickness These tendencies are must try in the Southern Ocean hydrological regime For that next remote sensing data AVHRR MCSST data and satellite altimetry data merged data of mission ERS TOPEX Poseidon Jason-1 ENVISAT GFO-1 are used to this task which give information about sea surface temperature SST and sea level anomaly SLA correspondingly According to obtained results SST has positive trend more 0 01 oC yr for 23-yr record 1982-2005 within 300-1000 km northward Antarctic coast However on average for the Southern Ocean SST have negative trend about -0 018 -0 035 oC yr In area of Pacific-Antarctic Ridge and of southern part of Mid Atlantic Ridge decrease rate is more than -0 075 oC yr SLA increases in all area of the Southern Ocean and has average rate about 0 024 -0 026 cm yr for 12-yr record 1993-2005 Around Antarctic SST rate good correspond with the trend analysis of surface air temperature of 8722 0 042 - 0 067oC yr inferred from the satellite 20-yr record Comiso 2000 Nevertheless the observed cooling is intriguing especially since it is compatible with the observed trend in the sea ice cover In the sea ice regions the northernmost positions of the ice edge are shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold anomalies around the continent This work was partly supported by the Russian Fund of Basic Research Grant 06-05-65061

  2. Temperature dependence of mode conversion in warm, unmagnetized plasmas with a linear density profile

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Dae Jung; Lee, Dong-Hun; Kim, Kihong

    2013-06-15

    We study theoretically the linear mode conversion between electromagnetic waves and Langmuir waves in warm, stratified, and unmagnetized plasmas, using a numerically precise calculation based on the invariant imbedding method. We verify that the principle of reciprocity for the forward and backward mode conversion coefficients holds precisely regardless of temperature. We also find that the temperature dependence of the mode conversion coefficient is substantially stronger than that previously reported. Depending on the wave frequency and the incident angle, the mode conversion coefficient is found to increase or decrease with the increase of temperature.

  3. Ozone and temperature decadal trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere, based on measurements from SABER on TIMED

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, F. T.; Mayr, H. G.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2014-08-01

    We have derived ozone and temperature trends from years 2002 through 2012, from 20 to 100 km altitude, and 48° S to 48° N latitude, based on measurements from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. For the first time, trends of ozone and temperature measured at the same times and locations are obtained, and their correlations should provide useful information about the relative importance of photochemistry versus dynamics over the longer term. We are not aware of comparable results covering this time period and spatial extent. For stratospheric ozone, until the late 1990s, previous studies found negative trends (decreasing amounts). In recent years, some empirical and modeling studies have shown the occurrence of a turnaround in the decreasing ozone, possibly beginning in the late 1990s, suggesting that the stratospheric ozone trend is leveling off or even turning positive. Our global results add more definitive evidence, expand the coverage, and show that at mid-latitudes (north and south) in the stratosphere, the ozone trends are indeed positive, with ozone having increased by a few percent from 2002 through 2012. However, in the tropics, we find negative ozone trends between 25 and 50 km. For stratospheric temperatures, the trends are mostly negatively correlated to the ozone trends. The temperature trends are positive in the tropics between 30 and 40 km, and between 20 and 25 km, at approximately 24° N and at 24° S latitude. The stratospheric temperature trends are otherwise mostly negative. In the mesosphere, the ozone trends are mostly flat, with suggestions of small positive trends at lower latitudes. The temperature trends in this region are mostly negative, showing decreases of up to ~ -3 K decade-1. In the lower thermosphere (between ~ 85 and 100 km), ozone and temperature trends are both negative. The ozone trend can

  4. A Reanalysis for the Seasonal and Longer-Period Cycles and the Trends in Middle Atmosphere Temperature from the HALOE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remsberg, Ellis E.

    2007-01-01

    Previously published analyses for the seasonal and longer-period cycles in middle atmosphere temperature versus pressure (or T(p)) from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are extended to just over 14 years and updated to properly account for the effects of autocorrelation in its time series of zonally-averaged data. The updated seasonal terms and annual averages are provided, and they can be used to generate temperature distributions that are representative of the period 1991-2005. QBO-like terms have also been resolved and are provided, and they exhibit good consistency across the range of latitudes and pressure-altitudes. Further, exploratory analyses of the residuals from each of the 221 time series have yielded significant 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) and linear trend terms at a number of latitudes and levels. The amplitudes of the SC-like terms for the upper mesosphere agree reasonably with calculations of the direct solar radiative effects for T(p). Those SC amplitudes increase by about a factor of 2 from the lower to the upper mesosphere and are also larger at the middle than at the low latitudes. The diagnosed cooling trends for the subtropical latitudes are in the range, -0.5 to -1.0 K/decade, which is in good agreement with the findings from models of the radiative effects on pressure surfaces due to known increases in atmospheric CO2. The diagnosed trends are somewhat larger than predicted with models for the upper mesosphere of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes.

  5. Linear dependence of surface expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in warm dense matter

    DOE PAGES

    Bang, Woosuk; Albright, Brian James; Bradley, Paul Andrew; Vold, Erik Lehman; Boettger, Jonathan Carl; Fernández, Juan Carlos

    2016-07-12

    Recent progress in laser-driven quasi-monoenergetic ion beams enabled the production of uniformly heated warm dense matter. Matter heated rapidly with this technique is under extreme temperatures and pressures, and promptly expands outward. While the expansion speed of an ideal plasma is known to have a square-root dependence on temperature, computer simulations presented here show a linear dependence of expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in the warm dense matter regime. The expansion of uniformly heated 1–100 eV solid density gold foils was modeled with the RAGE radiation-hydrodynamics code, and the average surface expansion speed was found to increase linearly withmore » temperature. The origin of this linear dependence is explained by comparing predictions from the SESAME equation-of-state tables with those from the ideal gas equation-of-state. In conclusion, these simulations offer useful insight into the expansion of warm dense matter and motivate the application of optical shadowgraphy for temperature measurement.« less

  6. Linear dependence of surface expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in warm dense matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bang, W.; Albright, B. J.; Bradley, P. A.; Vold, E. L.; Boettger, J. C.; Fernández, J. C.

    2016-07-01

    Recent progress in laser-driven quasi-monoenergetic ion beams enabled the production of uniformly heated warm dense matter. Matter heated rapidly with this technique is under extreme temperatures and pressures, and promptly expands outward. While the expansion speed of an ideal plasma is known to have a square-root dependence on temperature, computer simulations presented here show a linear dependence of expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in the warm dense matter regime. The expansion of uniformly heated 1–100 eV solid density gold foils was modeled with the RAGE radiation-hydrodynamics code, and the average surface expansion speed was found to increase linearly with temperature. The origin of this linear dependence is explained by comparing predictions from the SESAME equation-of-state tables with those from the ideal gas equation-of-state. These simulations offer useful insight into the expansion of warm dense matter and motivate the application of optical shadowgraphy for temperature measurement.

  7. Linear dependence of surface expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in warm dense matter

    PubMed Central

    Bang, W.; Albright, B. J.; Bradley, P. A.; Vold, E. L.; Boettger, J. C.; Fernández, J. C.

    2016-01-01

    Recent progress in laser-driven quasi-monoenergetic ion beams enabled the production of uniformly heated warm dense matter. Matter heated rapidly with this technique is under extreme temperatures and pressures, and promptly expands outward. While the expansion speed of an ideal plasma is known to have a square-root dependence on temperature, computer simulations presented here show a linear dependence of expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in the warm dense matter regime. The expansion of uniformly heated 1–100 eV solid density gold foils was modeled with the RAGE radiation-hydrodynamics code, and the average surface expansion speed was found to increase linearly with temperature. The origin of this linear dependence is explained by comparing predictions from the SESAME equation-of-state tables with those from the ideal gas equation-of-state. These simulations offer useful insight into the expansion of warm dense matter and motivate the application of optical shadowgraphy for temperature measurement. PMID:27405664

  8. A Non-linear Temperature-Time Program for Non-isothermal Kinetic Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sohn, Hong Yong

    2016-04-01

    A new temperature-time program for non-isothermal measurements of chemical reaction rates has been developed. The major advantages of the proposed temperature-time function are twofold: Firstly, the analysis of kinetic information in the high temperature range of the measurement is improved over the conventional linear temperature program by slowing the rate of temperature increase in the high temperature range and secondly, the new temperature program greatly facilitates the data analysis by providing a closed-form solution of the temperature integral and allows a convenient way to obtain the kinetic parameters by eliminating the need for the approximate evaluation of the temperature integral. The procedures for applying the new temperature-time program to the analysis of experimental data are demonstrated in terms of the determination of the kinetic parameters based on the selection of a suitable conversion function in the rate equation as well as the direct determination of activation energy at different conversion extents without the need for a conversion function. The rate analysis based on the new temperature program is robust and does not appear to be sensitive to errors in experimental measurements.

  9. Physical mechanisms of tropical climate feedbacks revealed by regional temperature and moisture trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferraro, Angus; Lambert, Hugo; Collins, Mat

    2015-04-01

    Climate models generally maintain close-to-constant tropospheric relative humidity in a warming climate. As a result, models with more negative lapse rate feedbacks tend to have more positive water vapour feedbacks. Despite this intermodel relationship, the regional structures of the tropical lapse rate and water vapour feedbacks are very different. What determines the regional structure of these feedbacks? Here we compare the modelled behaviour of tropical climate feedback processes with satellite observations over the period 1979-2010. We combine surface temperature data with upper-tropospheric temperature data from the Microwave Sounding Unit / Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU/AMSU) instruments as a metric of lapse rate feedback. We use data from the High-Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS) Channel 12 (~6.3 microns) to measure changes in upper-tropospheric relative humidity, a strong driver of the water vapour feedback. There is considerable uncertainty in the tropical-mean trend in upper-tropospheric relative humidity as derived from HIRS, since trends are small and variability is large. This makes it difficult to discern tropical-mean relative humidity trends. However, by investigating the regional structure of these trends we discover consistent signatures of processes driving lapse rate and water vapour feedbacks across climate models and observational datasets. Upper-tropospheric warming trends are relatively constant over the Tropics because the tropical atmosphere is unable to maintain strong temperature gradients. The regional structures of upper-tropospheric warming are similar between models and observations. Therefore, the majority of the regional variation in tropical lapse rate feedback actually comes from regional variation in surface temperature changes, not tropospheric temperature changes. The magnitude of upper-tropospheric moistening generally increases with surface warming as expected from simple moisture availability arguments, except in

  10. Are there evidences of altitudinal effects of air temperature trends in the European Alps 1820-2013?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoener, W.; Auer, I.; Chimani, B.; Garnekind, M.; Haslinger, K.

    2013-12-01

    We use the HISTALP data set (www.zamg.ac.at/histalp) in order to assess the elevation dependency of air temperature trends within the European Alps. The evidence of altitudinal effects of the climate warming (with higher sensitivity of high mountain regions to warming) is a key statement, or at least key hypothesis, in many studies. The high relevance of such statement resp. hypothesis is obvious if one consider the impacts resulting from such fact, such as snow- and glacier melting and related effects for mountain hydrology. The HISTALP data set stands out with respect to its series lengths and its high level of homogenisation. Interestingly, the HISTALP temperature data show no clear altitudinal dependency of warming or cooling trends within the period 1820-2013. Additionally, a rather homogenous temporal trend could be observed within the entire Greater Alpine Region (GAR). Because HISTALP include also air pressure and vapour pressure series, we could compare our measured air temperatures with mean-column air temperatures, computed by the barometric formula, which were derived from the independently measured air pressure data (using vapour pressure to account for the atmospheric water content) at low resp. high elevations. Computed mean column temperatures are in good agreement with observed temperatures, indicating generally homogenous temporal temperature trend behaviour at different elevations. Our finding contradicts several results from climate modelling attempts and also other studies investigating Alpine temperature trends. We conclude that, whereas modelling results are still limited in the assessment of altitudinal effect of temperature trends from missing atmospheric processes captured by the models, the difference of the trend behaviour compared to other analyses of instrumental air temperatures comes from the seasonal base taken as the basis for trend estimation. It appears that opposite trend in spring and autumn for the period 1980

  11. What caused the recent ``Warm Arctic, Cold Continents'' trend pattern in winter temperatures?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Lantao; Perlwitz, Judith; Hoerling, Martin

    2016-05-01

    The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use multiple models to examine whether such a pattern is indeed forced by sea ice loss specifically and by anthropogenic forcing in general. While we show much of Arctic amplification in surface warming to result from sea ice loss, we find that neither sea ice loss nor anthropogenic forcing overall yield trends toward colder continental temperatures. An alternate explanation of the cooling is that it represents a strong articulation of internal atmospheric variability, evidence for which is derived from model data, and physical considerations. Sea ice loss impact on weather variability over the high-latitude continents is found, however, to be characterized by reduced daily temperature variability and fewer cold extremes.

  12. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of temperature parameters over Sutlej river basin, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Dharmaveer; Glupta, R. D.; Jain, Sanjay K.

    2015-02-01

    The annual and seasonal trend analysis of different surface temperature parameters (average, maximum, minimum and diurnal temperature range) has been done for historical (1971-2005) and future periods (2011-2099) in the middle catchment of Sutlej river basin, India. The future time series of temperature data has been generated through statistical downscaling from large scale predictors of CGCM3 and HadCM3 models under A2 scenario. Modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) chart have been used for detecting trend and sequential shift in time series of temperature parameters. The results of annual trend analysis for period of 1971-2005 show increasing as well as decreasing trends in average ( T Mean), maximum ( T Max), minimum ( T Min) temperature and increasing trends in Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) at different stations. But the annual trend analysis of downscaled data has revealed statistically significant (95% confidence level) rising trends in T Mean, T Max, T Min and falling trend in DTR for the period 2011-2099. The decreasing trend in DTR is due to higher rate of increase in T Min compared to T Max.

  13. Split Stirling linear cryogenic cooler for a new generation of high temperature infrared imagers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veprik, A.; Zechtzer, S.; Pundak, N.

    2010-04-01

    Split linear cryocoolers find use in a variety of infrared equipment installed in airborne, heliborne, marine and vehicular platforms along with hand held and ground fixed applications. An upcoming generation of portable, high-definition night vision imagers will rely on the high-temperature infrared detectors, operating at elevated temperatures, ranging from 95K to 200K, while being able to show the performance indices comparable with these of their traditional 77K competitors. Recent technological advances in industrial development of such high-temperature detectors initialized attempts for developing compact split Stirling linear cryogenic coolers. Their known advantages, as compared to the rotary integral coolers, are superior flexibility in the system packaging, constant and relatively high driving frequency, lower wideband vibration export, unsurpassed reliability and aural stealth. Unfortunately, such off-the-shelf available linear cryogenic coolers still cannot compete with rotary integral rivals in terms of size, weight and power consumption. Ricor developed the smallest in the range, 1W@95K, linear split Stirling cryogenic cooler for demanding infrared applications, where power consumption, compactness, vibration, aural noise and ownership costs are of concern.

  14. Commercial Development of an Advanced, High-Temperature, Linear-Fresnel Based Concentrating Solar Power Concept

    SciTech Connect

    Viljoen, Nolan; Schuknecht, Nathan

    2012-05-28

    Included herein is SkyFuel’s detailed assessment of the potential for a direct molten salt linear Fresnel collector. Linear Fresnel architecture is of interest because it has features that are well suited for use with molten salt as a heat transfer fluid: the receiver is fixed (only the mirrors track), the receiver diameter is large (reducing risk of freeze events), and the total linear feet of receiver can be reduced due to the large aperture area. Using molten salt as a heat transfer fluid increases the allowable operating temperature of a collector field, and the cost of thermal storage is reduced in proportion to that increase in temperature. At the conclusion of this project, SkyFuel determined that the cost goals set forth in the contract could not be reasonably met. The performance of a Linear Fresnel collector is significantly less than that of a parabolic trough, in particular due to linear Fresnel’s large optical cosine losses. On an annual basis, the performance is 20 to 30% below that of a parabolic trough per unit area. The linear Fresnel collector and balance of system costs resulted in an LCOE of approximately 9.9¢/kWhre. Recent work by SkyFuel has resulted in a large aperture trough design (DSP Trough) with an LCOE value of 8.9 ¢/kWhre calculated with comparative financial terms and balance of plant costs (White 2011). Thus, even though the optimized linear Fresnel collector of our design has a lower unit cost than our optimized trough, it cannot overcome the reduction in annual performance.

  15. Linearity, climate sensitivity and climate changes in the surface temperature field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stainforth, D. A.; Smith, L. A.

    2012-04-01

    The relationship between equilibrium global mean temperature, Te, and applied radiative forcing, Rf, is commonly expressed by the linear equation (Gregory et al., Roe and Baker): ΔTe = λ Rf where λ is a constant known as the feedback parameter. Here we address the question of whether the relationship between Te and Rf is, in fact, well quantified by such a linear equation. Our analysis is based on the output of a global climate model. If the relationship breaks down when moving from a single equation model to a complicated global circulation model it is unlikely to reassert itself in the real world with all its additional complexity. Thus nonlinearity in the model can be taken as a strong indication of nonlinearity in reality, while linearity in a model might only be taken as a weak indication of linearity in reality. Thanks to the support of the climateprediction.net team and participants, we were able to run large (>500 members) initial condition ensembles with a global climate model (HadSM3) at seven values of Rf. Results will be presented demonstrating the nonlinear nature of the Te, Rf relationship. The term "linear" is used with a number of different meanings, leading to confusion in discussions between the many disciplines involved in climate science research. Furthermore, in the high-dimensional space of climate model output, linearity with Rf can be achieved in a variety of ways: for instance, linearity in magnitude of change (as in the equation above), linearity in degree of rotation within the high-dimensional model state space, linear change in variance in each dimension. These will be illustrated. Analysis of the above ensembles will be used to show that not only is the model nonlinear in the scalar global mean temperature, but also in the pattern of change. These results imply key messages for ensemble design. Most crucial is consideration of larger initial condition ensembles than is typical in climate model experiments. Such ensembles allow the

  16. 21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

  17. Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

    2004-01-01

    Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend

  18. Seasonal trends in precipitation and surface air temperature extremes in mainland Portugal, 1941-2007

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lima, M. I. P.; Santo, F. E.; Ramos, A. M.

    2012-04-01

    Several climate models predict, on a global scale, modifications in climate variables that are expected to have impact on society and the environment. The concern is on changes in the variability of processes, the mean and extreme events (maximum and minimum). To explore recent changes in precipitation and near surface air temperature extremes in mainland Portugal, we have inspected trends in time series of specific indices defined for daily data. These indices were recommended by the Commission for Climatology/Climate Variability and Predictability (CCl/CLIVAR) Working Group on Climate Change Detection, and include threshold indices, probability indices, duration indices and other indices. The precipitation and air temperature data used in this study are from, respectively, 57 and 23 measuring stations scattered across mainland Portugal, and cover the periods 1941-2007, for precipitation, and 1941-2006, for temperature. The study focuses on changes at the seasonal scale. Strong seasonality is one of the main features of climate in mainland Portugal. Intensification of the seasonality signal across the territory, particularly in the more sensitive regions, might contribute to endanger already fragile soil and water resources and ecosystems, and the local environmental and economic sustainability. Thus, the understanding of variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation and air temperature events at the intra-annual scale is particularly important in this geographical area. Trend analyses were conducted over the full period of the records and for sub-periods, exploring patterns of change. Results show, on the one hand, regional differences in the tendency observed in the time series analysed; and, on the other hand, that although trends in annual indices are in general not statistically significant, there are sometimes significant changes over time in the data at the seasonal scale that point out to an increase in the already existing

  19. Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

    Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

  20. Recent annual and seasonal temperature trends for a Trans-Pyrenean region, 1950-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prohom, M. J.; Aguilar, E.; Esteban, P.; Mestre, O.

    2009-09-01

    Estimation of multidecadal trends in regional temperatures has remained a key indicator of global warming. Here we show a preliminary approach analyzing surface temperature series for a trans-pyrenean region involving three different countries (Andorra, Catalonia and south-eastern France), representing different climate regimes and covering the period 1950-2008. The monthly data employed in this work was obtained after careful quality control of daily values. The QC'd dataset was homogenised usig the available metadata and the Cassinus-Mestre (C-M) method, both for breakpoint detection and series correction. C-M is a pair-wise comparison procedure which uses a bayesian approach to detect multiple changes and avoids problems associated with reference series (e.g. difficulties in ensuring homogeneity and mixture of record lengths in climate series) and enables all temperature series to be evaluated. This work was carried out within the action COST-ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME), which has among its goals to investigate the impacts of different homogenisation approaches over the observed data series. The results show a similar positive annual temperature trend over the whole region and period (1950-2008) of about +0.20°C/decade, and being statistically significant (p

  1. Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean.

    PubMed

    Cowan, Tim; Cai, Wenju; Purich, Ariaan; Rotstayn, Leon; England, Matthew H

    2013-01-01

    In the late twentieth century, the sub-thermocline waters of the southern tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean experienced a sharp cooling. This cooling has been previously attributed to an anthropogenic aerosol-induced strengthening of the global ocean conveyor, which transfers heat from the subtropical gyre latitudes toward the North Atlantic. From the mid-1990s the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean experienced a rapid temperature trend reversal. Here we show, using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, that the late twentieth century sub-thermocline cooling of the southern Indian Ocean was primarily driven by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. The models simulate a slow-down in the sub-thermocline cooling followed by a rapid warming towards the mid twenty-first century. The simulated evolution of the Indian Ocean temperature trend is linked with the peak in aerosols and their subsequent decline in the twenty-first century, reinforcing the hypothesis that aerosols influence ocean circulation trends.

  2. Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean

    PubMed Central

    Cowan, Tim; Cai, Wenju; Purich, Ariaan; Rotstayn, Leon; England, Matthew H.

    2013-01-01

    In the late twentieth century, the sub-thermocline waters of the southern tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean experienced a sharp cooling. This cooling has been previously attributed to an anthropogenic aerosol-induced strengthening of the global ocean conveyor, which transfers heat from the subtropical gyre latitudes toward the North Atlantic. From the mid-1990s the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean experienced a rapid temperature trend reversal. Here we show, using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, that the late twentieth century sub-thermocline cooling of the southern Indian Ocean was primarily driven by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. The models simulate a slow-down in the sub-thermocline cooling followed by a rapid warming towards the mid twenty-first century. The simulated evolution of the Indian Ocean temperature trend is linked with the peak in aerosols and their subsequent decline in the twenty-first century, reinforcing the hypothesis that aerosols influence ocean circulation trends. PMID:23873281

  3. Two-warehouse partial backlogging inventory model for deteriorating items with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaggi, Chandra K.; Khanna, Aditi; Verma, Priyanka

    2011-07-01

    In today's business transactions, there are various reasons, namely, bulk purchase discounts, re-ordering costs, seasonality of products, inflation induced demand, etc., which force the buyer to order more than the warehouse capacity. Such situations call for additional storage space to store the excess units purchased. This additional storage space is typically a rented warehouse. Inflation plays a very interesting and significant role here: It increases the cost of goods. To safeguard from the rising prices, during the inflation regime, the organisation prefers to keep a higher inventory, thereby increasing the aggregate demand. This additional inventory needs additional storage space, which is facilitated by a rented warehouse. Ignoring the effects of the time value of money and inflation might yield misleading results. In this study, a two-warehouse inventory model with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions having different rates of deterioration has been developed. Shortages at the owned warehouse are also allowed subject to partial backlogging. The solution methodology provided in the model helps to decide on the feasibility of renting a warehouse. Finally, findings have been illustrated with the help of numerical examples. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis has also been provided.

  4. Oscillations, trends and anomalies in rainfall and air temperature in the principal cities in Bolivia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villazon, M. F.

    2013-05-01

    Rainfall and temperature can be extremely variable in space and time especially in mountainous environment. The determination of climate variability and climate change needs a special assessment for water management. Increase our knowledge of the main climate trends in the region toward higher quality future climate determination is required. This research examines the anomalies of observed monthly rainfall and temperature data from 4 stations located in the principal cities in Bolivia (see Table below). Trends and anomalies in quantiles were determined for each station for monthly and 6-month seasonal block periods (wet period and dry period). The results suggest the presence of cycles rather than unidirectional trends. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. After determination of the anomalies for each of the stations, in both monthly rainfall and average temperature, together with the confidence intervals, comparison is made with the anomalies calculated in a similar way with data corresponding to the SOI. Comparison in cycles, shape and correlation has been performed between the anomalies from the observation data and the anomalies from the SOI with different time delay. The aim of this comparison is to identify the external influences of the anomalies in rainfall and temperature (Tele-connections). Influences have been identified during cycles of El Niño in the Andean zones La Paz, El Alto and Cochabamba dry cycles occur and in the most Amazonian side, Santa Cruz city, wet cycle is observed. This relation is opposite in La Niña periods.Meteorological stations under study;

  5. Long-term temperature trends in the deep waters of the Weddell Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, Robin; Visbeck, Martin; Gordon, Arnold L.; Fahrbach, E.

    Warming of the deep water in the Weddell Sea has important implications for Antarctic bottom water formation, melting of pack ice, and the regional ocean-atmosphere heat transfer. In order to evaluate warming trends in the Weddell Sea, a historical data set encompassing CTD and bottle data from 1912 to 2000 was analyzed for temporal trends in the deep water masses: warm deep water (WDW) and Weddell Sea deep water (WSDW). The coldest WDW temperatures were primarily associated with the Weddell Polynya of the mid-1970s. Subsequent warming occurred at a rate of ˜0.012±0.007°C yr -1 from the 1970s to 1990s. This warming was comparable to the global, average surface water warming observed by Levitus et al. (Science 287 (2000) 2225), to the warming of the WSBW in the central Weddell Sea observed by Fahrbach et al. (Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Program, Report No. 12, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Bremerhaven, Germany, 1998a, p. 24), and to the surface ice temperature warming from 1970 to 1998 in the Weddell Sea observed by Comiso (J. Climate 13 (2000) 1674). The warming was not compensated by an increase in salinity, and thus the WDW became less dense. The location of the warmest temperature was displaced towards the surface by ˜200 m from the 1970s to the 1990s. Although the average WSDW potential temperatures between 1500 and 3500 m were warmer in the 1990s than in the 1970s, high variability in the data prevented identification of a well-defined temporal trend.

  6. Interannual and decadal variability and trends in upper ocean temperatures in the North Pacific Ocean

    SciTech Connect

    White, W.B.; Cayan, D.R.

    1994-12-31

    Temperature profiles from the surface to 400 m deployed over the North Pacific Ocean for the 45 years from 1950--1994 are mapped onto a coarse grid each month, allowing trends in the upper ocean temperature to be estimated. Only temperature profiles distributed from 20{degree}N-60{degree}N are used, these subjected to rigorous scientific quality control. Two parameters are chosen to be representative of the upper ocean thermal structure; i.e., sea surface temperature (SST) and heat storage over the upper 400 m (HS400). Mapping of SST and HS400 is conducted monthly, with optimal interpolation utilizing a priori estimates of the covariance structure of the anomalous fields determined by White. This yields a time sequence of 540 monthly maps for each parameter over this 45-year period. Examining these time sequences for decadal variability and trends finds their magnitude and sign to change substantially as a function of geographical location over the North Pacific Ocean. For example, all along the west coast of North America, both SST and HS400 warmed during the past 45 years. But, in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean, both parameters cooled over this period. The average SST and HS400 over the entire domain from 20{degree}-60{degree}N did not show a trend. Rather, decadal variability dominated the time sequence, with the 1950`s colder than normal, the 1960`s near normal, the 1970`s warmer than normal, the 1980`s colder than normal, and the 1990`s warmer than normal. This natural decadal variability obscures any possible anthropogenic warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere over this period.

  7. Influence trend of temperature distribution in skin tissue generated by different exposure dose pulse laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shan, Ning; Wang, Zhijing; Liu, Xia

    2014-11-01

    Laser is widely applied in military and medicine fields because of its excellent capability. In order to effectively defend excess damage by laser, the thermal processing theory of skin tissue generated by laser should be carried out. The heating rate and thermal damage area should be studied. The mathematics model of bio-tissue heat transfer that is irradiated by laser is analyzed. And boundary conditions of bio-tissue are discussed. Three layer FEM grid model of bio-tissue is established. The temperature rising inducing by pulse laser in the tissue is modeled numerically by adopting ANSYS software. The changing trend of temperature in the tissue is imitated and studied under the conditions of different exposure dose pulse laser. The results show that temperature rising in the tissue depends on the parameters of pulse laser largely. In the same conditions, the pulse width of laser is smaller and its instant power is higher. And temperature rising effect in the tissue is very clear. On the contrary, temperature rising effect in the tissue is lower. The cooling time inducing by temperature rising effect in the tissue is longer along with pulse separation of laser is bigger. And the temperature difference is bigger in the pulse period.

  8. Inference of Global Mean Temperature Trend and Climate Change from MSU and AMSU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prabhakara, Cuddapah; Iacovazzi, R. A., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) radiometers flown on the NOAA operational satellite series are potentially valuable as global temperature monitoring devices. Spencer and Christy pioneered the analysis of mid-tropospheric temperature, given by MSU Channel 2 (Ch 2) at 53.74 GHz, to derive the global temperature trend. Also, in addition to monitoring global temperature, these microwave radiometers have the potential to reveal interannual climate signals in tropics. We have analyzed the data of MSU Ch 2 and AMSU Ch 5 (53.6 GHz) from the NOAA operational satellites for the period 1980 to 2000, utilizing the NOAA calibration procedure. The data are corrected for the satellite orbital drift based on the temporal changes of the on-board warm blackbody temperature. From our analysis, we find that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 Kdecade(sup -1) during 1980 to 2000. From an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the MSU global data, we find that the mid-tropospheric temperature in middle and high latitudes responds to the ENSO forcing during the Northern Hemisphere Winter in a distinct manner. This mid-latitude response is opposite in phase to that in the tropics. This result is in accord with simulations performed with an ECMWF global spectral model. This study shows a potential use of the satellite observations for climatic change.

  9. Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: recent trends and an update to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feidas, H.

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, the surface and lower tropospheric temperature trends in Greece and their relationship to the atmospheric circulation for the period 1955-2013 were examined, updating the study of Feidas et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 79:185-208, 2004) for data observed during the 12-year period 2002-2013. The trend analysis is based on a combination of three statistical tests. The trends are now examined for all the seasonal time series, new atmospheric circulation indices were added in the analysis, and maps with the spatial distribution of correlation between air temperature and atmospheric circulation were constructed and analysed. The series updated to 2013 for 18 stations reveal a clearer positive trend than that found for the period 1955-2001 on both the annual and the seasonal timescales. The warming signal detected only in summer in the study of Feidas et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 79:185-208, 2004) has now intensified and spread in other seasons. This warming appears to be mainly caused by the very high temperatures in the last decade (after 2004) of the record. At the national scale, there is now a match between surface temperature trends in Greece and Northern Hemisphere (NH) but only for summer, spring and annual time series, which are the only time series presenting a statistically significant warming trend in Greece. Satellite-induced lower tropospheric temperatures now show a statistically significant tropospheric temperature warming trend for the period 1979-2013, for both areas (Greece and NH). Lower tropospheric and surface air temperatures for the same period (1979-2013) show a very good agreement, with differences only in winter and summer for Greece. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the temperature variability in Greece was also examined using two more circulation indices: the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern Index (EMPI) and the North-Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCPI). EMPI and especially NCPI explain better now the temperature variance in

  10. Historical trends in tank 241-SY-101 waste temperatures and levels

    SciTech Connect

    Antoniak, Z.I.

    1993-09-01

    The gas release and fluctuating level of the waste in tank 241-SY-101 have prompted more detailed interest in its historical behavior, in hopes of achieving a better understanding of its current status. To examine the historical behavior, essentially all of the tank waste temperature and level data record has been retrieved, examined, and plotted in various ways. To aid in interpreting the data, the depth of the non-convective waste layer was estimated by using a least-squares Chebyshev approximation to the temperatures. This report documents the retrieval critical examination, and graphic presentation of 241-SY-101 temperature and waste level histories. The graphic presentations clearly indicate a tank cooling trend that has become precipitous since late 1991. The plots also clearly show the decreasing frequency of waste gas release events, increasing height of the non-convective layer, and larger level drops per event.

  11. Are there spurious temperature trends in the United States Climate Division database?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keim, B.D.; Wilson, A.M.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.

    2003-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Climate Division data set is commonly used in applied climatic studies in the United States. The divisional averages are calculated by including all available stations within a division at any given time. The averages are therefore vulnerable to shifts in average station location or elevation over time, which may introduce spurious trends within these data. This paper examines temperature trends within the 15 climate divisions of New England, comparing the NCDC's U.S. Divisional Data to the U.S. Historical Climate Network (USHCN) data. Correlation and multiple regression revealed that shifts in latitude, longitude, and elevation have affected the quality of the NCDC divisional data with respect to the USHCN. As a result, there may be issues with regard to their use in decadal-to century-scale climate change studies.

  12. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves

    SciTech Connect

    Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Erickson III, David J; Branstetter, Marcia L; Parish, Esther S; Singh, Nagendra; Drake, John B; Buja, Lawrence

    2009-01-01

    Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge, especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions, while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves, concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability, suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions.

  13. Trends in temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions in China, 1961-2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Zhou, Xiaowen; Lai, Chengguang; Chen, Xiaohong

    2016-06-01

    By characterizing the patterns of temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions (IARs) in China from 1961 to 2011, this study performed trend analyses on 16 extreme temperature indices using a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily gridded dataset and the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that annually, at both daytime and nighttime, cold extremes significantly decreased but warm extremes significantly increased across all IARs. Overall, nighttimes tended to warm faster than daytimes. Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) diminished, apart from the mid-northern Southwest China Region and the mid-Loess Plateau Region. Seasonally, DTR widely diminished across all IARs during the four seasons except for spring. Higher minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in both summer and winter, were recorded for most IARs except for the Huang-Huai-Hai Region; in autumn, all IARs generally encountered higher TNn and TXx. In all seasons, warming was observed at daytime and nighttime but, again, nighttimes warmed faster than daytimes. The results also indicate a more rapid warming trend in Northern and Western China than in Southern and Eastern China, with accelerated warming at high elevations. The increases in TNn and TXx might cause a reduction in agriculture yield in spring over Northern China, while such negative impact might occur in Southern China during summer. In autumn and winter, however, the negative impact possibly occurred in most of the IARs. Moreover, increased TXx in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is possibly related to rapid local urbanization. Climatically, the general increase in temperature extremes across Chinese IARs may be induced by strengthened Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High or weakened Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex.

  14. Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

  15. Impact of sea surface temperature trend on late summer Asian rainfall in the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bian, Qiying; Lu, Riyu

    2013-05-01

    impact of the global sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend, which is the leading mode of SST variability, on late summer Asian rainfall is analyzed based on the simulations of five atmospheric general circulation models, which are performed by the U. S. Climate Variability and Predictability Drought Working Group. Our evaluations of the model outputs indicate that these models roughly capture the main features of climatological rainfall and circulations over Asia and the western North Pacific (WNP), but they simulate a too strong monsoon trough and a too northward shifted in the subtropical anticyclone in the WNP and fail to reproduce the rain belt over East Asia. It is found that all of the models simulate an intensified WNP subtropical high (WNPSH) in late summer, an enhanced precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean and the maritime continent, and a suppressed precipitation in the South Asian monsoon region, the South China Sea, and the Philippine Sea, when the models are forced with the SST trend, which is characterized by a significant increase in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. All these changes are suggested to be dynamically coherent. The warmer SST trend in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific may suppress precipitation over the Philippine Sea and thus result in a lower tropospheric anticyclonic circulation over the subtropical WNP. The warmer SSTs in the Indian Ocean may also be responsible for the anomalous easterlies and resultant less rainfall over the South Asian monsoon region. The precipitation changes forced by the SST trend are similar in the maritime continent but show an apparent difference over East Asia, in comparison with the observed rainfall trend over lands. The possible reasons for this difference are discussed.

  16. Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-08-01

    Snow is a vital resource for a host of natural and human systems. Global warming is projected to drive widespread decreases in snow accumulation by the end of the century, potentially affecting water, food, and energy supplies, seasonal heat extremes, and wildfire risk. However, over the next few decades, when the planning and implementation of current adaptation responses are most relevant, the snow response is more uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in regional and local precipitation trends. We use a large (40-member) single-model ensemble climate model experiment to examine the influence of precipitation variability on the direction and magnitude of near-term Northern Hemisphere snow trends. We find that near-term uncertainty in the sign of regional precipitation change does not cascade into uncertainty in the sign of regional snow accumulation change. Rather, temperature increases drive statistically robust consistency in the sign of future near-term snow accumulation trends, with all regions exhibiting reductions in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, along with mean decreases in late-season snow accumulation. However, internal variability does create uncertainty in the magnitude of hemispheric and regional snow changes, including uncertainty as large as 33 % of the baseline mean. In addition, within the 40-member ensemble, many mid-latitude grid points exhibit at least one realization with a statistically significant positive trend in net snow accumulation, and at least one realization with a statistically significant negative trend. These results suggest that the direction of near-term snow accumulation change is robust at the regional scale, but that internal variability can influence the magnitude and direction of snow accumulation changes at the local scale, even in areas that exhibit a high signal-to-noise ratio.

  17. Linear viscoelastic limits of asphalt concrete at low and intermediate temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, Yusuf A.

    The purpose of this dissertation is to demonstrate the hypothesis that a region at which the behavior of asphalt concrete can be represented as a linear viscoelastic material can be determined at low and intermediate temperatures considering the stresses and strains typically developed in the pavements under traffic loading. Six mixtures containing different aggregate gradations and nominal maximum aggregate sizes varying from 12.5 to 37.5 mm were used in this study. The asphalt binder grade was the same for all mixtures. The mixtures were compacted to 7 +/- 1% air voids, using the Superpave Gyratory Compactor. Tests were conducted at low temperatures (-20°C and -10°C), using the indirect tensile test machine, and at intermediate temperatures (4°C and 20°C), using the Superpave shear machine. To determine the linear viscoelastic range of asphalt concrete, a relaxation test for 150 s, followed by a creep test for another 150 s, was conducted at 150 and 200 microstrains (1 microstrain = 1 x 10-6), at -20°C, and at 150 and 300 microstrains, at -10°C. A creep test for 200 s, followed by a recovery test for another 200 s, was conducted at stress levels up to 800 kPa at 4°C and up to 500 kPa at 20°C. At -20°C and -10°C, the behavior of the mixtures was linear viscoelastic at 200 and 300 microstrains, respectively. At intermediate temperatures (4°C and 20°C), an envelope defining the linear and nonlinear region in terms of stress as a function of shear creep compliance was constructed for all the mixtures. For creep tests conducted at 20°C, it was discovered that the commonly used protocol to verify the proportionality condition of linear viscoelastic behavior was unable to detect the appearance of nonlinear behavior at certain imposed shear stress levels. Said nonlinear behavior was easily detected, however, when checking the satisfaction of the superposition condition. The envelope constructed for determining when the material becomes nonlinear should be

  18. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

  19. Piezoresistive Sensitivity, Linearity and Resistance Time Drift of Polysilicon Nanofilms with Different Deposition Temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Changzhi; Liu, Xiaowei; Chuai, Rongyan

    2009-01-01

    Our previous research work indicated that highly boron doped polysilicon nanofilms (≤100 nm in thickness) have higher gauge factor (the maximum is ∼34 for 80 nm-thick films) and better temperature stability than common polysilicon films (≥ 200nm in thickness) at the same doping levels. Therefore, in order to further analyze the influence of deposition temperature on the film structure and piezoresistance performance, the piezoresistive sensitivity, piezoresistive linearity (PRL) and resistance time drift (RTD) of 80 nm-thick highly boron doped polysilicon nanofilms (PSNFs) with different deposition temperatures were studied here. The tunneling piezoresistive model was established to explain the relationship between the measured gauge factors (GFs) and deposition temperature. It was seen that the piezoresistance coefficient (PRC) of composite grain boundaries is higher than that of grains and the magnitude of GF is dependent on the resistivity of grain boundary (GB) barriers and the weight of the resistivity of composite GBs in the film resistivity. In the investigations on PRL and RTD, the interstitial-vacancy (IV) model was established to model GBs as the accumulation of IV pairs. And the recrystallization of metastable IV pairs caused by material deformation or current excitation is considered as the prime reason for piezoresistive nonlinearity (PRNL) and RTD. Finally, the optimal deposition temperature for the improvement of film performance and reliability is about 620 °C and the high temperature annealing is not very effective in improving the piezoresistive performance of PSNFs deposited at lower temperatures. PMID:22399960

  20. Solar variations and their influence on trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E. ); Lean, J.L. . E.O. Hulburt Center for Space Research)

    1990-10-01

    Over the past decade, knowledge of the magnitude and temporal structure of the variations in the sun's ultraviolet irradiance has increased steadily. A number of theoretical modeling studies have shown that changes in the solar ultraviolet flux during the 11-year solar cycle can have a significant effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations. With the exception of Brasseur et al., who examined a very broad range of solar flux variations, all of these studies assumed much larger changes in the ultraviolet flux than measurements now indicate. These studies either calculated the steady-state effect at solar maximum and solar minimum or assumed sinusoidal variations in the solar flux changes with time. It is now possible to narrow the uncertainty range of the expected effects on upper stratospheric ozone and temperature resulting from the 11-year solar cycle. A more accurate representation of the solar flux changes with time is used in this analysis, as compared to previous published studies. This study also evaluates the relative roles of solar flux variations and increasing concentrations of long-lived trace gases in determining the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature. The LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere is used to evaluate the combined effects on the stratosphere from changes in solar ultraviolet irradiances and trace gas concentrations over the last several decades. Derived trends in upper stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperature are then compared with available analyses of ground-based and satellite measurements over this time period.

  1. Trends and Implications of Stream Temperature for Energy and Fish Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Li, H. Y.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    Stream temperature plays an important role in closing the energy balance at local, regional and global scales, and has significant impacts on fishery and energy production. It is therefore a critical parameter in the water-food-energy nexus. The stream temperature is affected by both climatic conditions and human activities such as reservoir and power plant operations. This study adopts a physically based stream temperature model within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) has been developed to represent riverine water dynamics and incorporated into CESM by coupling with the Community Land Model (CLM). Here we build upon CLM-MOSART to represent the riverine transport of heat along with water flux and the energy exchanges between river water and the atmosphere. The impacts of reservoir and power plant operations are also explicitly incorporated with this stream temperature model. Scenarios of climate change effects as well as climate change combined with human activities are simulated. Trend in stream temperature, especially summer stream, will be systematically analyzed. Discussions of how future stream temperature affects energy production and food security will be presented.

  2. Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, A. R.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Schoeberl, M. R.

    2006-01-01

    Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a

  3. Low-temperature magnetic measurements of an [ital S]=1 linear-chain Heisenberg antiferromagnet

    SciTech Connect

    Avenel, O.; Xu, J.; Xia, J.S.; Xu, M.; Andraka, B.; Lang, T.; Moyland, P.L.; Ni, W.; Signore, P.J.C.; van Woerkens, C.M.C.M.; Adams, E.D.; Ihas, G.G.; Meisel, M.W.; Nagler, S.E.; Sullivan, N.S.; Takano, Y. ); Talham, D.R. ); Goto, T. ); Fujiwara, N. )

    1992-10-01

    The temperature-dependent magnetic susceptibility, [chi]([ital T]), of two pure samples of the [ital S]=1 linear-chain Heisenberg antiferromagnet Ni(C[sub 2]H[sub 8]N[sub 2])[sub 2]NO[sub 2](ClO[sub 4]), commonly known as NENP, has been measured from approximately 300 K to 300 [mu]K. Our measurements of [chi]([ital T]) are in agreement with existing results of other researchers who worked above 1.2 K. Below 1.2 K, [chi]([ital T]) increases with decreasing temperature. The results suggest that the low-temperature increase of [chi]([ital T]) is not a consequence of a single source of paramagnetic impurities in the samples but may arise from [ital S]=1/2 end-chain interactions.

  4. Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2013-05-01

    One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is

  5. Split Stirling linear cryogenic cooler for high-temperature infrared sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veprik, A.; Zehter, S.; Vilenchik, H.; Pundak, N.

    2009-05-01

    Infrared imagers play a vital role in the modern tactics of carrying out surveillance, reconnaissance, targeting and navigation operations. The cooled systems are known to be superior to their uncooled competitors in terms of working ranges, resolution and ability to distinguish/track fast moving objects in dynamic infrared scenes. These advantages are primarily due to maintaining the infrared focal plane arrays at cryogenic temperatures using mechanical closed cycle Stirling cryogenic coolers. Recent technological advances in industrial application of high-temperature (up to 200K) infrared detectors has spurred the development of linearly driven microminiature split Stirling cryogenic coolers having inherently longer life spans, lower vibration export and better aural stealth as compared to their rotary driven rivals. Moreover, recent progress in designing highly efficient "moving magnet" resonant linear actuators and dedicated smart electronics have enabled further improvements to the cooler size, weight, power consumption, cooldown time and ownership costs. The authors report on the development and project status of a novel microminiature split Stirling linear cryogenic cooler having a shortened to 19mm cold finger and a high driving frequency (90Hz). The cooler has been specifically designed for cooling 130K infrared sensors of future portable infrared imagers, where compactness, low steady-state power consumption and fast cool-down time are of primary concern.

  6. Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena F.

    2010-01-01

    climate variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly "trends" based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Leve13 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCM's performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Nino-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Nino-La Nina activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

  7. Temperature effects on EPR spectra of a linear chain copper complex-copper calcium acetate hexahydrate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De, D. K.

    1981-03-01

    The observed angular dependence of the electron paramagnetic resonance linewidth in the ab and ac planes of CuCa(AC)2, 6H2O in the temperature interval 77K-12K was explained by considering dipolar interactions along with hyperfine and isotropic exchange interactions in these two planes. It was found that this so called linear-chain copper compound can be better described by a three dimensional paramagnet. The exchange interaction is very nearly isotropic with values Jab = 0.0098 cm-1 and Jc = 0.0103 cm-1. The values of the A⊥ derived from the linewidth fit in the ab plane are 14G at 77K and 60.5G at 1.2K. Due to insufficiency of data in the ac plane, the fit was done with the measured value of A∥. Although the exchange interaction has been found to be temperature independent the hyperfine interaction increases very much at low temperatures. The high temperature (300-460K) EPR spectra are quite different from the low temperature spectra. High temperature differential thermal analyses and thermogravimetric analyses have been carried out and corroborated with the EPR findings.

  8. Temperature trends for reaction rates, hydrogen generation, and partitioning of iron during experimental serpentinization of olivine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCollom, Thomas M.; Klein, Frieder; Robbins, Mark; Moskowitz, Bruce; Berquó, Thelma S.; Jöns, Niels; Bach, Wolfgang; Templeton, Alexis

    2016-05-01

    A series of laboratory experiments were conducted to examine how partitioning of Fe among solid reaction products and rates of H2 generation vary as a function of temperature during serpentinization of olivine. Individual experiments were conducted at temperatures ranging from 200 to 320 °C, with reaction times spanning a few days to over a year. The extent of reaction ranged from <1% to ∼23%. Inferred rates for serpentinization of olivine during the experiments were 50-80 times slower than older studies had reported but are consistent with more recent results, indicating that serpentinization may proceed more slowly than previously thought. Reaction products were dominated by chrysotile, brucite, and magnetite, with minor amounts of magnesite, dolomite, and iowaite. The chrysotile contained only small amounts of Fe (XFe = 0.03-0.05, with ∼25% present as ferric Fe in octahedral sites), and displayed little variation in composition with reaction temperature. Conversely, the Fe contents of brucite (XFe = 0.01-0.09) increased steadily with decreasing reaction temperature. Analysis of the reaction products indicated that the stoichiometry of the serpentinization reactions varied with temperature, but remained constant with increasing reaction progress at a given temperature. The observed distribution of Fe among the reaction products does not appear to be entirely consistent with existing equilibrium models of Fe partitioning during serpentinization, suggesting improved models that include kinetic factors or multiple reaction steps need to be developed. Rates of H2 generation increased steeply from 200 to 300 °C, but dropped off at higher temperatures. This trend in H2 generation rates is attributable to a combination of the overall rate of serpentinization reactions and increased partitioning of Fe into brucite rather than magnetite at lower temperatures. The results suggest that millimolal concentration of H2 could be attained in moderately hot hydrothermal

  9. Multidecadal variations and trends of central European temperature in simulated climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Farda, Aleš; Belda, Michal

    2016-04-01

    Despite the steady advances in numerical modelling, the current generation of climate simulations still struggles to reliably reproduce some of the processes in the climate system and their effects. Aside from the long-term variations, related to the responses to anthropogenic and natural forcings, a great deal of attention is also being devoted to the ability of the climate models to mimic the multidecadal variability observed in the climatic records, including the possible imprints of phenomena such as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this presentation, we deliver some of our findings resulting from an analysis of observed and simulated temperature variability in central Europe - a region with long history of climatic measurements, with some of the records extending back to (or even beyond) the 19th century. Comparison of the measured temperature data to multiple historical runs of the CNRM-CM5 global climate model is performed, over the 19th and 20th centuries. For the period since 1850, an analysis is also carried out for temperature series originating from various simulations within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We show that while many of the studied models exhibit relatively good skill in capturing the basic statistical characteristics of regional temperature, their representation of long-term trends and multidecadal variability in the temperature series often differs substantially from the observations.

  10. Linear response to leadership, effective temperature, and decision making in flocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pearce, Daniel J. G.; Giomi, Luca

    2016-08-01

    Large collections of autonomously moving agents, such as animals or micro-organisms, are able to flock coherently in space even in the absence of a central control mechanism. While the direction of the flock resulting from this critical behavior is random, this can be controlled by a small subset of informed individuals acting as leaders of the group. In this article we use the Vicsek model to investigate how flocks respond to leadership and make decisions. Using a combination of numerical simulations and continuous modeling we demonstrate that flocks display a linear response to leadership that can be cast in the framework of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, identifying an effective temperature reflecting how promptly the flock reacts to the initiative of the leaders. The linear response to leadership also holds in the presence of two groups of informed individuals with competing interests, indicating that the flock's behavioral decision is determined by both the number of leaders and their degree of influence.

  11. Linear response to leadership, effective temperature and decision making in flocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pearce, Daniel; Giomi, Luca

    The Vicsek model is the prototypical system for studying collective behavior of interacting self propelled particles (SPPs). It has formed the basis for models explaining the collective behavior of many active systems including flocks of birds and swarms of insects. To the standard Vicsek model we introduce a small angular torque to a subset of the particles and observe how this effects the direction of polarisation of the entire swarm. This is analogous to a few informed birds trying to lead the rest of a large flock by initiating a turn. We find a linear response to this perturbation and fluctuations that are in agreement with fluctuation dissipation theorem. This allows the identification of an effective temperature for the Vicsek model that follows a power law with the noise amplitude. The linear response can also be extended to the process of decision-making, wherein flocks must decide between the behaviors of two competing subgroups of individuals.

  12. Raman distributed temperature sensor for oil leakage detection in soil: a field trial and future trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Signorini, Alessandro; Nannipieri, Tiziano; Gabella, Luca; Di Pasquale, Fabrizio; Latini, Gilberto; Ripari, Daniele

    2014-05-01

    In this paper we perform field validation of distributed Raman temperature sensing (RDTS) for oil leakage detection in soil. The capability of the distributed Raman sensor in detecting and locating, with high accuracy and spatial resolution, drop leakages in soil is demonstrated through a water leakage simulation in a field trial. The future trends and the high potential of the Raman DTS technology for oil and gas leakage detection in long pipelines is then outlined in this paper by reporting lab experiments demonstrating accurate meter scale temperature measurement over more than 50 km of standard single mode fiber. The proposed solution, based on distributed Simplex coding techniques, can be competitive in terms of cost and performance with respect to other distributed sensing technologies.

  13. The effective temperature of ions stored in a linear quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer.

    PubMed

    Donald, William A; Khairallah, George N; O'Hair, Richard A J

    2013-06-01

    The extent of internal energy deposition into ions upon storage, radial ejection, and detection using a linear quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer is investigated as a function of ion size (m/z 59 to 810) using seven ion-molecule thermometer reactions that have well characterized reaction entropies and enthalpies. The average effective temperatures of the reactants and products of the ion-molecule reactions, which were obtained from ion-molecule equilibrium measurements, range from 295 to 350 K and do not depend significantly on the number of trapped ions, m/z value, ion trap q z value, reaction enthalpy/entropy, or the number of vibrational degrees of freedom for the seven reactions investigated. The average of the effective temperature values obtained for all seven thermometer reactions is 318 ± 23 K, which indicates that linear quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometers can be used to study the structure(s) and reactivity of ions at near ambient temperature.

  14. Solar Wind Proton Temperature Anisotropy: Linear Theory and WIND/SWE Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hellinger, P.; Travnicek, P.; Kasper, J. C.; Lazarus, A. J.

    2006-01-01

    We present a comparison between WIND/SWE observations (Kasper et al., 2006) of beta parallel to p and T perpendicular to p/T parallel to p (where beta parallel to p is the proton parallel beta and T perpendicular to p and T parallel to p are the perpendicular and parallel proton are the perpendicular and parallel proton temperatures, respectively; here parallel and perpendicular indicate directions with respect to the ambient magnetic field) and predictions of the Vlasov linear theory. In the slow solar wind, the observed proton temperature anisotropy seems to be constrained by oblique instabilities, by the mirror one and the oblique fire hose, contrary to the results of the linear theory which predicts a dominance of the proton cyclotron instability and the parallel fire hose. The fast solar wind core protons exhibit an anticorrelation between beta parallel to c and T perpendicular to c/T parallel to c (where beta parallel to c is the core proton parallel beta and T perpendicular to c and T parallel to c are the perpendicular and parallel core proton temperatures, respectively) similar to that observed in the HELIOS data (Marsch et al., 2004).

  15. Causes of differing temperature trends in radiosonde upper air data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Free, Melissa; Seidel, Dian J.

    2005-04-01

    Differences between trends in different radiosonde temperature products resulting from the varying choices made by the developers of the data sets create obstacles for use of those products in climate change detection and attribution. To clarify the causes of these differences, one must examine results using a common subset of locations to minimize spatial sampling effects. When this is done for the Lanzante-Klein-Seidel (LKS) and Hadley Center (HadRT) radiosonde data sets, differences are reduced by at least one third. Differing homogeneity adjustment methods and differences in the source data are both important factors contributing to the remaining discrepancies. In contrast, subsampling the microwave sounding unit (MSU) satellite data sets according to the radiosonde coverage does not generally bring the trends in the satellite data closer to those in the radiosonde data so that adjustments and other processing differences appear to be the predominant sources of satellite-radiosonde discrepancies. Experiments in which we subsample globally complete data sets provide additional insight into the role of sampling errors. In the troposphere, spatial sampling errors are frequently comparable to the trends for 1979-1997, while in the stratosphere the errors are generally small relative to the trends. Sampling effects estimated from National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis and MSU satellite data for seven actual radiosonde networks show little consistent relation between sampling error and network size. These results may have significant implications for the design of future climate monitoring networks. However, estimates of sampling effects using the reanalysis and the satellite data sets differ noticeably from each other and from effects estimated from actual radiosonde data, suggesting that these globally complete data sets may not fully reproduce actual sampling effects.

  16. Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California.

    PubMed

    Swain, Daniel L; Horton, Daniel E; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

    2016-04-01

    Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949-2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949-2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012-2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California's most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years. PMID:27051876

  17. Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California.

    PubMed

    Swain, Daniel L; Horton, Daniel E; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

    2016-04-01

    Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949-2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949-2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012-2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California's most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years.

  18. Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California

    PubMed Central

    Swain, Daniel L.; Horton, Daniel E.; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2016-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949–2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949–2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012–2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California’s most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years. PMID:27051876

  19. Underestimation of oxygen deficiency hazard through use of linearized temperature profiles

    SciTech Connect

    Kerby, J.

    1989-06-15

    The failure mode analysis for any cryogenic system includes the effects of a large liquid spill due to vessel rupture or overfilling. The Oxygen Deficiency Hazard (ODH) analysis for this event is a strong function of the estimated heat flux entering the spilled liquid. A common method for estimating the heat flux is to treat the surface on which the liquid spills as a semi-infinite solid. This note addresses the effect of linearizing the temperature profile in this form of analysis, and shows it to cause the calculated flux to be underestimated by more than a factor of two. 3 refs., 2 figs.

  20. A study of temperature-related non-linearity at the metal-silicon interface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gammon, P. M.; Donchev, E.; Pérez-Tomás, A.; Shah, V. A.; Pang, J. S.; Petrov, P. K.; Jennings, M. R.; Fisher, C. A.; Mawby, P. A.; Leadley, D. R.; McN. Alford, N.

    2012-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate the temperature dependencies of metal-semiconductor interfaces in an effort to better reproduce the current-voltage-temperature (IVT) characteristics of any Schottky diode, regardless of homogeneity. Four silicon Schottky diodes were fabricated for this work, each displaying different degrees of inhomogeneity; a relatively homogeneous NiV/Si diode, a Ti/Si and Cr/Si diode with double bumps at only the lowest temperatures, and a Nb/Si diode displaying extensive non-linearity. The 77-300 K IVT responses are modelled using a semi-automated implementation of Tung's electron transport model, and each of the diodes are well reproduced. However, in achieving this, it is revealed that each of the three key fitting parameters within the model display a significant temperature dependency. In analysing these dependencies, we reveal how a rise in thermal energy "activates" exponentially more interfacial patches, the activation rate being dependent on the carrier concentration at the patch saddle point (the patch's maximum barrier height), which in turn is linked to the relative homogeneity of each diode. Finally, in a review of Tung's model, problems in the divergence of the current paths at low temperature are explained to be inherent due to the simplification of an interface that will contain competing defects and inhomogeneities.

  1. Analysis of trends in climate, streamflow, and stream temperature in north coastal California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madej, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    As part of a broader project analyzing trends in climate, streamflow, vegetation, salmon, and ocean conditions in northern California national park units, we compiled average monthly air temperature and precipitation data from 73 climate stations, streamflow data from 21 river gaging stations, and limited stream temperature data from salmon-bearing rivers in north coastal California. Many climate stations show a statistically significant increase in both average maximum and average minimum air temperature in early fall and midwinter during the last century. Concurrently, average September precipitation has decreased. In many coastal rivers, summer low flow has decreased and summer stream temperatures have increased, which affects summer rearing habitat for salmonids. Nevertheless, because vegetative cover has also changed during this time period, we cannot ascribe streamflow changes to climate change without first assessing water budgets. Although shifts in the timing of the centroid of runoff have been documented in snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the western United States, this was not the case in lower elevation coastal rivers analyzed in this study.

  2. Infrared line cameras based on linear arrays for industrial temperature measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drogmoeller, Peter; Hofmann, Guenter; Budzier, Helmut; Reichardt, Thomas; Zimmerhackl, Manfred

    2002-03-01

    The PYROLINE/ MikroLine cameras provide continuous, non-contact measurement of linear temperature distributions. Operation in conjunction with the IR_LINE software provides data recording, real-time graphical analysis, process integration and camera-control capabilities. One system is based on pyroelectric line sensors with either 128 or 256 elements, operating at frame rates of 128 and 544 Hz respectively. Temperatures between 0 and 1300DGRC are measurable in four distinct spectral ranges; 8-14micrometers for low temperatures, 3-5micrometers for medium temperatures, 4.8-5.2micrometers for glass-temperature applications and 1.4-1.8micrometers for high temperatures. A newly developed IR-line camera (HRP 250) based upon a thermoelectrically cooled, 160-element, PbSe detector array operating in the 3 - 5 micrometers spectral range permits the thermal gradients of fast moving targets to be measured in the range 50 - 180 degree(s)C at a maximum frequency of 18kHz. This special system was used to measure temperature distributions on rotating tires at velocities of more than 300 km/h (190 mph). A modified version of this device was used for real-time measurement of disk-brake rotors under load. Another line camera consisting a 256 element InGaAs array was developed for the spectral range of 1.4 - 1.8 micrometers to detect impurities of polypropylene and polyethylene in raw cotton at frequencies of 2.5 - 5 kHz.

  3. Time series decomposition of remotely sensed land surface temperature and investigation of trends and seasonal variations in surface urban heat islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quan, Jinling; Zhan, Wenfeng; Chen, Yunhao; Wang, Mengjie; Wang, Jinfei

    2016-03-01

    Previous time series methods have difficulties in simultaneous characterization of seasonal, gradual, and abrupt changes of remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST). This study proposed a model to decompose LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components. The trend component indicates long-term climate change and land development and is described as a piecewise linear function with iterative breakpoint detection. The seasonal component illustrates annual insolation variations and is modeled as a sinusoidal function on the detrended data. This model is able to separate the seasonal variation in LST from the long-term (including gradual and abrupt) change. Model application to nighttime Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/LST time series during 2000-2012 over Beijing yielded an overall root-mean-square error of 1.62 K between the combination of the decomposed trend and seasonal components and the actual MODIS/LSTs. LST decreased (~ -0.086 K/yr, p < 0.1) in 53% of the study area, whereas it increased with breakpoints in 2009 (~0.084 K/yr before and ~0.245 K/yr after 2009) between the fifth and sixth ring roads. The decreasing trend was stronger over croplands than over urban lands (p < 0.05), resulting in an increasing trend in surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII, 0.022 ± 0.006 K/yr). This was mainly attributed to the trends in urban-rural differences in rainfall and albedo. The SUHII demonstrated a concave seasonal variation primarily due to the seasonal variations of urban-rural differences in temperature cooling rate (related to canyon structure, vegetation, and soil moisture) and surface heat dissipation (affected by humidity and wind).

  4. Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molnar, G. I.; Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; NASA/Gsfc Sounder Research Team

    2010-12-01

    variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly “trends” based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Level3 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCM’s performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Niño-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Niño-La Niña activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

  5. Interrelationship of rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration trends and their net response to the climate change in Central India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundu, Sananda; Khare, Deepak; Mondal, Arun

    2016-09-01

    The monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 and maximum and minimum temperature data from 1901 to 2005 are used along with the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) to analyze the climate trend of 45 stations of Madhya Pradesh. ET0 is calculated by the Hargreaves method from 1901 to 2005 and the computed data is then used for trend analysis. The temporal variation and the spatial distribution of trend are studied for seasonal and annual series with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's estimator of slope. The percentage of change is used to find the rate of change in 111 years (rainfall) and 105 years (temperatures and ET0). Interrelationships among these variables are analyzed to see the dependency of one variable on the other. The results indicate a decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and ET0 trend. A similar pattern is noticeable in all seasons except for monsoon season in temperature and ET0 trend analysis. The highest increase of temperature is noticed during post-monsoon and winter. Rainfall shows a notable decrease in the monsoon season. The entire state of Madhya Pradesh is considered as a single unit, and the calculation of overall net change in the amount of the rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum) and ET0 is done to estimate the total loss or gain in monthly, seasonal and annual series. The results show net loss or deficit in the amount of rainfall and the net gain or excess in the temperature and ET0 amount.

  6. Estimating spatially distributed monthly evapotranspiration rates by linear transformations of MODIS daytime land surface temperature data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szilagyi, J.; Jozsa, J.

    2009-05-01

    Under simplifying conditions catchment-scale vapor pressure at the drying land surface can be calculated as a function of its watershed-representative temperature () by the wet-surface equation (WSE, similar to the wet-bulb equation in meteorology for calculating the dry-bulb thermometer vapor pressure) of the Complementary Relationship of evaporation. The corresponding watershed ET rate, , is obtained from the Bowen ratio with the help of air temperature, humidity and percent possible sunshine data. The resulting (,) pair together with the wet-environment surface temperature () and ET rate (ETw), obtained by the Priestley-Taylor equation, define a linear transformation on a monthly basis by which spatially distributed ET rates can be estimated as a sole function of MODIS daytime land surface temperature, Ts, values within the watershed. The linear transformation preserves the mean which is highly desirable. , in the lack of significant open water surfaces within the study watershed (Elkhorn, Nebraska), was obtained as the mean of the smallest MODIS Ts values each month. The resulting period-averaged (2000-2007) catchment-scale ET rate of 624 mm/yr is very close to the water-balance derived ET rate of about 617 mm/yr. The latter is a somewhat uncertain value due to the effects of (a) observed groundwater depletion of about 1m over the study period caused by extensive irrigation, and; (b) the uncertain rate of net regional groundwater supply toward the watershed. The spatially distributed ET rates correspond well with soil/aquifer properties and the resulting land use type (i.e. rangeland versus center-pivot irrigated crops).

  7. Estimating spatially distributed monthly evapotranspiration rates by linear transformations of MODIS daytime land surface temperature data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szilagyi, J.; Jozsa, J.

    2009-03-01

    Under simplifying conditions catchment-scale vapor pressure at the drying land surface can be calculated as a function of its watershed-representative temperature () by the wet-surface equation (WSE, similar to the wet-bulb equation in meteorology for calculating the dry-bulb thermometer vapor pressure) of the complementary relationship of evaporation. The corresponding watershed ET rate, , is obtained from the Bowen ratio with the help of air temperature, humidity and percent possible sunshine data. The resulting (, ) pair together with the wet-environment surface temperature () and ET rate (ETw), obtained by the Priestley-Taylor equation, define a linear transformation on a monthly basis by which spatially distributed ET rates can be estimated as a sole function of MODIS daytime land surface temperature, Ts, values within the watershed. The linear transformation preserves the mean which is highly desirable. , in the lack of significant open water surfaces within the study watershed (Elkhorn, Nebraska), was obtained as the mean of the smallest MODIS Ts values each month. The resulting period-averaged (2000-2007) catchment-scale ET rate of 624 mm/yr is very close to the water-balance derived ET rate of about 617 mm/yr. The latter is a somewhat uncertain value due to the effects of (a) observed groundwater depletion of about 1m over the study period caused by extensive irrigation, and; (b) the uncertain rate of net regional groundwater supply toward the watershed. The spatially distributed ET rates correspond well with soil/aquifer properties and the resulting land use type (i.e., rangeland versus center-pivot irrigated crops).

  8. Seasonal lake surface water temperature trends reflected by heterocyst glycolipid-based molecular thermometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauersachs, T.; Rochelmeier, J.; Schwark, L.

    2015-06-01

    It has been demonstrated that the relative distribution of heterocyst glycolipids (HGs) in cultures of N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria is largely controlled by growth temperature, suggesting a potential use of these components in paleoenvironmental studies. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental parameters (e.g., surface water temperatures, oxygen concentrations and pH) on the distribution of HGs in a natural system using water column filtrates collected from Lake Schreventeich (Kiel, Germany) from late July to the end of October 2013. HPLC-ESI/MS (high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry) analysis revealed a dominance of 1-(O-hexose)-3,25-hexacosanediols (HG26 diols) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25-hexacosanol (HG26 keto-ol) in the solvent-extracted water column filtrates, which were accompanied by minor abundances of 1-(O-hexose)-3,27-octacosanediol (HG28 diol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-27-octacosanol (HG28 keto-ol) as well as 1-(O-hexose)-3,25,27-octacosanetriol (HG28 triol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25,27-octacosanediol (HG28 keto-diol). Fractional abundances of alcoholic and ketonic HGs generally showed strong linear correlations with surface water temperatures and no or only weak linear correlations with both oxygen concentrations and pH. Changes in the distribution of the most abundant diol and keto-ol (e.g., HG26 diol and HG26 keto-ol) were quantitatively expressed as the HDI26 (heterocyst diol index of 26 carbon atoms) with values of this index ranging from 0.89 in mid-August to 0.66 in mid-October. An average HDI26 value of 0.79, which translates into a calculated surface water temperature of 15.8 ± 0.3 °C, was obtained from surface sediments collected from Lake Schreventeich. This temperature - and temperatures obtained from other HG indices (e.g., HDI28 and HTI28) - is similar to the one measured during maximum cyanobacterial productivity in early to mid-September and suggests that HGs

  9. Seasonal lake surface water temperature trends reflected by heterocyst glycolipid based molecular thermometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauersachs, T.; Rochelmeier, J.; Schwark, L.

    2015-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that the relative distribution of heterocyst glycolipids (HGs) in cultures of N2-fixing heterocystous cyanobacteria is largely controlled by growth temperature, suggesting a potential use of these components in paleoenvironmental studies. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental parameters (e.g. surface water temperatures, oxygen concentrations and pH) on the distribution of HGs in a natural system using water column filtrates collected from Lake Schreventeich (Kiel, Germany) from late July to the end of October 2013. HPLC-ESI/MS analysis revealed a dominance of 1-(O-hexose)-3,25-hexacosanediols (HG26 diols) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25-hexacosanol (HG26 keto-ol) in the solvent extracted water column filtrates, which were accompanied by minor abundances of 1-(O-hexose)-3,27-octacosanediol (HG28 diol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-27-octacosanol (HG28 keto-ol) as well as 1-(O-hexose)-3,25,27-octacosanetriol (HG28 triol) and 1-(O-hexose)-3-keto-25,27-octacosanediol (HG28 keto-diol). Fractional abundances of alcoholic and ketonic HGs generally showed strong linear correlations with surface water temperatures and no or only weak linear correlations with both oxygen concentrations and pH. Changes in the distribution of the most abundant diol and keto-ol (e.g., HG26 diol and HG26 keto-ol) were quantitatively expressed as the HDI26 (heterocyst diol index of 26carbon atoms) with values of this index ranging from 0.89 in mid-August to 0.66 in mid-October. An average HDI26 value of 0.79, which translates into a calculated surface water temperature of 15.8 ± 0.3 °C, was obtained from surface sediments collected from Lake Schreventeich. This temperature - and temperatures obtained from other HG indices (e.g., HDI28 and HTI28) - is similar to the one measured during maximum cyanobacterial productivity in early to mid-September and suggests that HGs preserved in Lake Schreventeich sediments record summer surface water temperatures. As N2-fixing

  10. Changing Trends and Variance in Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures over the Twentieth Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimenez, G.; Cole, J. E.; Thompson, D. M.; Tudhope, A. W.

    2015-12-01

    Global climate models and instrumental datasets often disagree regarding sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the tropical Pacific. Coral Sr/Ca records with sub-seasonal resolution provide SST proxies that complement and extend limited instrumental records. We present a new partially replicated Sr/Ca-SST record from two Galápagos corals (Isla Wolf, at 1°24'N, 91°48'W), that spans 1937-2010. The record shows high SST variance in the region, which increases nearly twofold after the late 1970s. Similarly, there is little trend in the mean until 1976, after which SSTs warm during all seasons. Both the increase in variance and the trend are strongest during the warm season, leading to progressively more anomalous conditions during El Niño events. To investigate recent changes in the eastern equatorial Pacific since the 1976/1977 climate transition, we compare the Galápagos record to a published coral Sr/Ca-SST record from Clipperton Atoll (10°18'N, 109°13'W, spanning 1874-1993; Wu et al., 2014, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol.). As in the Galápagos, Clipperton corals show increasing SSTs in all seasons after 1976. The trend at Clipperton is greater than in the Galápagos, though the variance is smaller and does not change significantly throughout the record. Finally, the north-south temperature gradient between Clipperton and Galápagos has increased slightly over the interval in which the two records overlap (1937-1993). Gridded instrumental SST data generally agree with the coral Sr/Ca-SST results, though the gridded data suggest lower variance at both sites. In sum, we show that an increase in the mean and variance of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific is associated with an enhanced meridional SST gradient over the twentieth century, and especially since 1976. These results contrast with recent suggestions that a weakened meridional SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific may be leading to stronger El Niño events. Our results support the

  11. SILC: a new Planck internal linear combination CMB temperature map using directional wavelets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, Keir K.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Leistedt, Boris; McEwen, Jason D.; Pontzen, Andrew

    2016-08-01

    We present new clean maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies (as measured by Planck) constructed with a novel internal linear combination (ILC) algorithm using directional, scale-discretized wavelets - scale-discretized, directional wavelet ILC or Scale-discretised, directional wavelet Internal Linear Combination (SILC). Directional wavelets, when convolved with signals on the sphere, can separate the anisotropic filamentary structures which are characteristic of both the CMB and foregrounds. Extending previous component separation methods, which use the frequency, spatial and harmonic signatures of foregrounds to separate them from the cosmological background signal, SILC can additionally use morphological information in the foregrounds and CMB to better localize the cleaning algorithm. We test the method on Planck data and simulations, demonstrating consistency with existing component separation algorithms, and discuss how to optimize the use of morphological information by varying the number of directional wavelets as a function of spatial scale. We find that combining the use of directional and axisymmetric wavelets depending on scale could yield higher quality CMB temperature maps. Our results set the stage for the application of SILC to polarization anisotropies through an extension to spin wavelets.

  12. Haematite natural crystals: non-linear initial susceptibility at low temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerrero-Suarez, S.; Martín-Hernández, F.

    2016-06-01

    Several works have reported that haematite has non-linear initial susceptibility at room temperature, like pyrrhotite or titanomagnetite, but there is no explanation for the observed behaviours yet. This study sets out to determine which physical property (grain size, foreign cations content and domain walls displacements) controls the initial susceptibility. The performed measurements include microprobe analysis to determine magnetic phases different to haematite; initial susceptibility (300 K); hysteresis loops, SIRM and backfield curves at 77 and 300 K to calculate magnetic parameters and minor loops at 77 K, to analyse initial susceptibility and magnetization behaviours below Morin transition. The magnetic moment study at low temperature is completed with measurements of zero field cooled-field cooled and AC susceptibility in a range from 5 to 300 K. The minor loops show that the non-linearity of initial susceptibility is closely related to Barkhausen jumps. Because of initial magnetic susceptibility is controlled by domain structure it is difficult to establish a mathematical model to separate magnetic subfabrics in haematite-bearing rocks.

  13. Continuing upward trend in Mt Read Huon pine ring widths - Temperature or divergence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Buckley, B. M.; Larsen, S. H.; Drew, D. M.; Downes, G. M.; Francey, R. J.; Peterson, M. J.; Baker, P. J.

    2014-10-01

    To date, no attempt has been made to assess the presence or otherwise of the “Divergence Problem” (DP) in existing multi-millennial Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. We have updated the iconic Mt Read Huon pine chronology from Tasmania, southeastern Australia, to now include the warmest decade on record, AD 2000-2010, and used the Kalman Filter (KF) to examine it for signs of divergence against four different temperature series available for the region. Ring-width growth for the past two decades is statistically unprecedented for the past 1048 years. Although we have identified a decoupling between temperature and growth in the past two decades, the relationship between some of the temperature records and growth has varied over time since the start of instrumental records. Rather than the special case of ‘divergence', we have identified a more general time-dependence between growth and temperature over the last 100 years. This time-dependence appears particularly problematic at interdecadal time scales. Due to the time-dependent relationships, and uncertainties related to the climate data, the use of any of the individual temperature series examined here potentially complicates temperature reconstruction. Some of the uncertainty in the climate data may be associated with changing climatic conditions, such as the intensification of the sub-tropical ridge (STR) and its impact on the frequency of anticyclonic conditions over the Mt Read site. Increased growth at the site, particularly in the last decade, over and above what would be expected based on a linear temperature model alone, may be consistent with a number of hypotheses. Existing uncertainties in the climate data need to be resolved and independent physiological information obtained before a range of hypotheses for this increased growth can be effectively evaluated.

  14. Local and linear chemical reactivity response functions at finite temperature in density functional theory

    SciTech Connect

    Franco-Pérez, Marco E-mail: ayers@mcmaster.ca E-mail: avela@cinvestav.mx; Ayers, Paul W. E-mail: ayers@mcmaster.ca E-mail: avela@cinvestav.mx; Gázquez, José L. E-mail: ayers@mcmaster.ca E-mail: avela@cinvestav.mx; Vela, Alberto E-mail: ayers@mcmaster.ca E-mail: avela@cinvestav.mx

    2015-12-28

    We explore the local and nonlocal response functions of the grand canonical potential density functional at nonzero temperature. In analogy to the zero-temperature treatment, local (e.g., the average electron density and the local softness) and nonlocal (e.g., the softness kernel) intrinsic response functions are defined as partial derivatives of the grand canonical potential with respect to its thermodynamic variables (i.e., the chemical potential of the electron reservoir and the external potential generated by the atomic nuclei). To define the local and nonlocal response functions of the electron density (e.g., the Fukui function, the linear density response function, and the dual descriptor), we differentiate with respect to the average electron number and the external potential. The well-known mathematical relationships between the intrinsic response functions and the electron-density responses are generalized to nonzero temperature, and we prove that in the zero-temperature limit, our results recover well-known identities from the density functional theory of chemical reactivity. Specific working equations and numerical results are provided for the 3-state ensemble model.

  15. Local and linear chemical reactivity response functions at finite temperature in density functional theory.

    PubMed

    Franco-Pérez, Marco; Ayers, Paul W; Gázquez, José L; Vela, Alberto

    2015-12-28

    We explore the local and nonlocal response functions of the grand canonical potential density functional at nonzero temperature. In analogy to the zero-temperature treatment, local (e.g., the average electron density and the local softness) and nonlocal (e.g., the softness kernel) intrinsic response functions are defined as partial derivatives of the grand canonical potential with respect to its thermodynamic variables (i.e., the chemical potential of the electron reservoir and the external potential generated by the atomic nuclei). To define the local and nonlocal response functions of the electron density (e.g., the Fukui function, the linear density response function, and the dual descriptor), we differentiate with respect to the average electron number and the external potential. The well-known mathematical relationships between the intrinsic response functions and the electron-density responses are generalized to nonzero temperature, and we prove that in the zero-temperature limit, our results recover well-known identities from the density functional theory of chemical reactivity. Specific working equations and numerical results are provided for the 3-state ensemble model.

  16. Mercury trends in predatory fish in Great Slave Lake: the influence of temperature and other climate drivers.

    PubMed

    Evans, Marlene; Muir, Derek; Brua, Robert B; Keating, Jonathan; Wang, Xiaowa

    2013-11-19

    Here we report on trends in mercury (Hg) concentrations in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), burbot (Lota lota), and northern pike (Esox lucius) from Great Slave Lake, located in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) and investigate how climate factors may be influencing these trends. Hg concentrations in lake trout and burbot increased significantly over the early 1990s to 2012 in the two major regions of the lake; no trend was evident for northern pike over 1999-2012. Temporal variations in Hg concentrations in lake trout and burbot were similar with respect to timing of peaks and troughs. Inclusion of climate variables based on annual means, particularly temperature, improved explanatory power for variations in Hg over analyses based only on year and fish length; unexpectedly, the temperature coefficient was negative. Climate analyses based on growing season means (defined as May-September) had less explanatory power suggesting that trends were more strongly associated with colder months within the year. Inclusion of the Pacific/North American index improved explanatory power for the lake trout model suggesting that trends may have been affected by air circulation patterns. Overall, while our study confirmed previously reported trends of Hg increase in burbot in the MRB, we found no evidence that these trends were directly driven by increasing temperatures and productivity.

  17. Karakorum temperature out of phase with hemispheric trends for the past five centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zafar, Muhammad Usama; Ahmed, Moinuddin; Rao, Mukund Palat; Buckley, Brendan M.; Khan, Nasrullah; Wahab, Muhammad; Palmer, Jonathan

    2016-03-01

    A systematic increase in global temperature since the industrial revolution has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing. This increase has been especially evident over the Himalayas and Central Asia and is touted as a major contributing factor for glacier mass balance declines across much of this region. However, glaciers of Pakistan's Karakorum region have shown no such decline during this time period, and in some instances have exhibited slight advance. This discrepancy, known as the `Karakorum Anomaly', has been attributed to unusual amounts of debris covering the region's glaciers; the unique seasonality of the region's precipitation; and localized cooling resulting from increased cloudiness from monsoonal moisture. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of summer (June-August) temperature from the Karakorum of North Pakistan that spans nearly five centuries (1523-2007 C.E.). The ring width indices are derived from seven collections (six— Picea smithiana and one— Pinus gerardiana) from middle-to-upper timberline sites in the northern Karakorum valleys of Gilgit and Hunza at elevations ranging from 2850 to 3300 meters above mean sea level (mean elevation 3059 m asl). The reconstruction passes all traditional calibration-verification schemes and explains 41 % of the variance of the nested Gilgit-Astore instrumental station data (Gilgit—1454 m asl, 1951-2009; Astore—2167 m asl, 1960-2013). Importantly, our results indicate that Karakorum temperature has remained decidedly out of phase with hemispheric temperature trends for at the least the past five centuries, highlighting the long-term stability of the Karakorum Anomaly, and suggesting that the region's temperature and cloudiness are contributing factors to the anomaly.

  18. Analysis of the change in temperature trends in Subansiri River basin for RCP scenarios using CMIP5 datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shivam; Goyal, Manish Kumar; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2016-06-01

    This study focuses on changes in the maximum and minimum temperature over the Subansiri River basin for different climate change scenarios. For the study, dataset from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) (i.e., coupled model intercomparison project phase five (CMIP5) dataset with representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios) were utilized. Long-term (2011-2100) maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (Tmin) time series were generated using the statistical downscaling technique for low emission scenario (RCP2.6), moderate emission scenario (RCP6.0), and extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). Trends and change of magnitude in T max, T min, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were analyzed for different interdecadal time scales (2011-2100, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2070-2100) using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator, respectively. The temperature data series for the observed duration (1981-2000) has been found to show increasing trends in T max and T min at both annual and monthly scale. Trend analysis of downscaled temperature for the period 2011-2100 shows increase in annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature for all the selected RCP scenarios; however, on the monthly scale, T max and T min have been seen to have decreasing trends in some months.

  19. Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  20. Amplification of Surface Temperature Trends and Variability in the Tropical Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Mears, C.; Wentz, F. J.; Klein, S. A.; Seidel, D. J.; Taylor, K. E.; Thorne, P. W.; Wehner, M. F.; Gleckler, P. J.; Boyle, J. S.; Collins, W. D.; Dixon, K. W.; Doutriaux, C.; Free, M.; Fu, Q.; Hansen, J. E.; Jones, G. S.; Ruedy, R.; Karl, T. R.; Lanzante, J. R.; Meehl, G. A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, G.; Schmidt, G. A.

    2005-09-01

    The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

  1. Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere.

    PubMed

    Santer, B D; Wigley, T M L; Mears, C; Wentz, F J; Klein, S A; Seidel, D J; Taylor, K E; Thorne, P W; Wehner, M F; Gleckler, P J; Boyle, J S; Collins, W D; Dixon, K W; Doutriaux, C; Free, M; Fu, Q; Hansen, J E; Jones, G S; Ruedy, R; Karl, T R; Lanzante, J R; Meehl, G A; Ramaswamy, V; Russell, G; Schmidt, G A

    2005-09-01

    The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

  2. Crystallization Trends of PEO-b-PCL with Solvent and Temperature Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Kristi; Carandang, Allison; van Horn, Ryan

    There is a great deal of interest in being able to selectively modify properties of certain polymers. This increases the amount of control that can be exercised over end products in terms of the hydrophobicity or hydrophilicity, transparency, and brittleness and is highly valued in the biomedical industry. In this case, the crystallization trends of the diblock co-polymer poly(ethylene-oxide)-b-poly(ɛ-caprolactone) (PEO-b-PCL) were observed with the manipulation of solvent and drying temperatures in a variety of samples. The solvents utilized included tetrahydrofuran, chloroform, and toluene. The crystallized samples were scanned via infrared spectroscopy. Results showed highest amounts of PEO crystallization compared to PCL crystallization in toluene while the lowest values were seen in samples in tetrahydrofuran. The chloroform samples fell in the middle. Moderate differences were observed in different molecular weight samples.

  3. Annual temperature anomaly trends correlate with coral reef trajectory across the Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riegl, B. M.; Wieters, E.; Bruckner, A.; Purkis, S.

    2013-05-01

    The future survival of coral reefs depends on the envelope of critical climatic conditions determining the severity of impacts on the ecosystem. While coral health is strongly determined by extreme heat events, that lead to bleaching and often death, chronic "heat loading" may also disadvantage corals by making them more susceptible to, for example, diseases. On the other hand, it has been shown that coral living in hotter areas have higher bleaching thresholds and may be affected by less mortality at extreme events. This level at which heat anomalies lead to coral mortality varies widely across oceans, from ~31 deg C across the Caribbean to ~32 deg C in the Great Barrier Reef to 37.5 deg C in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. Thus, there clearly exists local adaptation and the extremes required to kill reefs strongly vary among regions. This could be be interpreted as suggesting that as long as bleaching temperatures are not reached, increased overall heat content expressed by a positive annual thermal anomaly, might actually foster coral resilience. Is there evidence for or against such an argument? Bleaching events have been occurring worldwide with variable recurrence and variable subsequent recovery. Despite demonstrated adaptation to higher-than-usual mean summer temperatures, reefs in the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea are on a declining trajectory. This coincides with consistent warming in the region. Mean annual anomalies of ocean temperature (since 1870) and atmospheric temperatures (since 1950) increase throughout the region. Since 1994 (Red Sea) and 1998 (southern Arabian Gulf) all mean annual anomalies have been positive and this period has coincided with repeated, severe bleaching events. In the Eastern Pacific (Galapagos and Easter Island), the trend of mean annual temperature anomalies has been declining and coral cover has been increasing. Thus, trends in coral cover and mean annual anomaly are negatively correlated in both regions. Despite strong impacts

  4. Late Holocene Sea Surface Temperature Trends in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rustic, G. T.; Koutavas, A.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is a highly dynamic ocean region capable of exerting influencing on global climate as illustrated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The sea surface temperature (SST) history of this region in past millennia is poorly constrained due to the lack of in situ records with appropriate resolution. Here we present a ~2700 year sub-centennially resolved SST reconstruction from Mg/Ca ratios of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber from Galápagos sediments. The ETP SST record exhibits a long-term cooling trend of over 0.2°C/ky that is similar to Northern Hemisphere multi-proxy temperature trends suggesting a common origin, likely due to insolation forcing. The ETP remains in-phase with Northern Hemisphere climate records through the warm Roman Climate Optimum (~0-400CE), cooler Dark Ages Cold Period (~450-850CE), and through the peak warming of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1150 CE) when SST is within error of modern. Following peak MCA, the ETP cooled rapidly and then rebounded at ~1500 CE during the coldest portion of the Little Ice Age. Overall the data suggest an out-of-phase relationship during much of the last millennium, which we attribute to dynamical adjustments consistent with the "dynamical ocean thermostat" mechanism. Further evidence for these dynamical adjustments comes from reconstructions of the east-west zonal SST gradient using existing Mg/Ca SST reconstructions from the western Pacific warm pool. The last millennium has been the most dynamic period over the past 2700 years, with significant (~1 °C) SST variability in the ETP and modulation of the zonal gradient. A combination of dynamical and thermodynamic mechanisms are invoked to explain the region's complex SST history.

  5. Abundance trend with condensation temperature for stars with different Galactic birth places

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adibekyan, V.; Delgado-Mena, E.; Figueira, P.; Sousa, S. G.; Santos, N. C.; González Hernández, J. I.; Minchev, I.; Faria, J. P.; Israelian, G.; Harutyunyan, G.; Suárez-Andrés, L.; Hakobyan, A. A.

    2016-08-01

    Context. During the past decade, several studies reported a correlation between chemical abundances of stars and condensation temperature (also known as Tc trend). However, the real astrophysical nature of this correlation is still debated. Aims: The main goal of this work is to explore the possible dependence of the Tc trend on stellar Galactocentric distances, Rmean. Methods: We used high-quality spectra of about 40 stars observed with the HARPS and UVES spectrographs to derive precise stellar parameters, chemical abundances, and stellar ages. A differential line-by-line analysis was applied to achieve the highest possible precision in the chemical abundances. Results: We confirm previous results that [X/Fe] abundance ratios depend on stellar age and that for a given age, some elements also show a dependence on Rmean. When using the whole sample of stars, we observe a weak hint that the Tc trend depends on Rmean. The observed dependence is very complex and disappears when only stars with similar ages are considered. Conclusions: To conclude on the possible dependence of the Tc trend on the formation place of stars, a larger sample of stars with very similar atmospheric parameters and stellar ages observed at different Galactocentric distances is needed. Based on observations collected with the HARPS spectrograph at the 3.6-m telescope (program ID: 095.D-0717(A)), installed at the La Silla Observatory, ESO (Chile), with the UVES spectrograph at the 8-m Very Large Telescope (program ID: 095.D-0717(B)), installed at the Cerro Paranal Observatory, ESO (Chile). Also based on data obtained from the ESO Science Archive Facility under request numbers: vadibekyan180760, vadibekyan180762, vadibekyan180764, vadibekyan180768, vadibekyan180769, vadibekyan180771, vadibekyan180773, vadibekyan180778, and vadibekyan180779.Tables with stellar parameters and chemical abundances are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or

  6. Relating trends in land surface-air temperature difference to soil moisture and evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veal, Karen; Taylor, Chris; Gallego-Elvira, Belen; Ghent, Darren; Harris, Phil; Remedios, John

    2016-04-01

    Soil water is central to both physical and biogeochemical processes within the Earth System. Drying of soils leads to evapotranspiration (ET) becoming limited or "water-stressed" and is accompanied by rises in land surface temperature (LST), land surface-air temperature difference (delta T), and sensible heat flux. Climate models predict sizable changes to the global water cycle but there is variation between models in the time scale of ET decay during dry spells. The e-stress project is developing novel satellite-derived diagnostics to assess the ability of Earth System Models (ESMs) to capture behaviour that is due to soil moisture controls on ET. Satellite records of LST now extend 15 years or more. MODIS Terra LST is available from 2000 to the present and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) LST record runs from 1995 to 2012. This paper presents results from an investigation into the variability and trends in delta T during the MODIS Terra mission. We use MODIS Terra and MODIS Aqua LST and ESA GlobTemperature ATSR LST with 2m air temperatures from reanalyses to calculate trends in delta T and "water-stressed" area. We investigate the variability of delta T in relation to soil moisture (ESA CCI Passive Daily Soil Moisture), vegetation (MODIS Monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and precipitation (TRMM Multi-satellite Monthly Precipitation) and compare the temporal and spatial variability of delta T with model evaporation data (GLEAM). Delta T anomalies show significant negative correlations with soil moisture, in different seasons, in several regions across the planet. Global mean delta T anomaly is small (magnitude mostly less than 0.2 K) between July 2002 and July 2008 and decreases to a minimum in early 2010. The reduction in delta T anomaly coincides with an increase in soil moisture anomaly and NDVI anomaly suggesting an increase in evapotranspiration and latent heat flux with reduced sensible heat flux. In conclusion there have been

  7. Monitoring of vulcanization process using measurement of electrical properties during linear increasing temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seliga, E.; Bošák, O.; Koštial, P.; Dvořák, Z.; Kubliha, M.; Minárik, S.; Labaš, V.

    2015-04-01

    The article presents the possibilities of diagnostics of irreversible chemical reaction - vulcanization in case of laboratory prepared rubber mixture based on styrene - butadiene (SBR) using measurements of selected physical parameters. Our work is focused on the measurement of current rheologic parameters (torque at defined shear deformation) and selected electrical parameters (DC conductivity) during linear increasing temperature. The individual steps of vulcanization are well identified by means of measurements of rheologic parameters, while significantly affecting the value of the electrical conductivity. The value of the electrical conductivity increases with the increasing of rate of the crossbridging reactions during vulcanization. The rate of the heating affects both types of measurements. When the rate of the heating is increasing the temperature of the beginning of networking step of reactions and also the rate of vulcanization grow. The sensitivity of the both types of measurements allows a good mathematical description of the temperature dependence of the torque and the electric conductivity during the vulcanization of rubber mixtures based on SBR.

  8. Binary homogeneous nucleation: Temperature and relative humidity fluctuations and non-linearity

    SciTech Connect

    Easter, R.C. ); Peters, L.K. . Dept. of Chemical Engineering)

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses binary homogeneous nucleation involving H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] and water vapor is thought to be the primary mechanism for new particle formation in the marine boundary layer. Temperature, relative humidity, and partial pressure of H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] vapor are the most important parameters in fixing the binary homogeneous nucleation rate in the H[sub 2]SO[sub 4]/H[sub 2]O system. The combination of thermodynamic calculations and laboratory experiments indicates that this rate varies roughly as the tenth power of the saturation ratio of H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] vapor. Furthermore, the vapor pressure of H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] is a function of temperature, and similar dependencies of the binary homogeneous nucleation rate on relative humidity can be noted as well. These factors thus introduce strong non-linearities into the system, and fluctuations of temperature, relative humidity, and H[sub 2]SO[sub 4] vapor concentrations about mean values may strongly influence the nucleation rate measured in the atmosphere.

  9. Binary homogeneous nucleation: Temperature and relative humidity fluctuations and non-linearity

    SciTech Connect

    Easter, R.C.; Peters, L.K.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses binary homogeneous nucleation involving H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} and water vapor is thought to be the primary mechanism for new particle formation in the marine boundary layer. Temperature, relative humidity, and partial pressure of H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} vapor are the most important parameters in fixing the binary homogeneous nucleation rate in the H{sub 2}SO{sub 4}/H{sub 2}O system. The combination of thermodynamic calculations and laboratory experiments indicates that this rate varies roughly as the tenth power of the saturation ratio of H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} vapor. Furthermore, the vapor pressure of H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} is a function of temperature, and similar dependencies of the binary homogeneous nucleation rate on relative humidity can be noted as well. These factors thus introduce strong non-linearities into the system, and fluctuations of temperature, relative humidity, and H{sub 2}SO{sub 4} vapor concentrations about mean values may strongly influence the nucleation rate measured in the atmosphere.

  10. On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

  11. Do CMIP5 Climate Models Reproduce Observed Historical Trends in Temperature and Precipitation over the Continental United States?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Kunkel, K.

    2015-12-01

    Monitoring trends in key climate variables, such as surface temperature and precipitation, is an integral part of the ongoing efforts of the United States National Climate Assessment (NCA). Positive trends in both temperature and precipitation have been observed over the 20th century over much of the Continental United States (CONUS), however projections of future trends are reliant on climate model simulations. In order to have confidence in future projections of temperature and precipitation, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of current state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce historical observed trends. Towards this goal, trends in surface temperature and precipitation obtained from the NOAA nClimDiv 5 km gridded station observation-based product are compared to the suite of CMIP5 historical simulations over the CONUS region. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES), an analysis tool which supports the NCA by providing access to data and tools for regional climate model validation, is used to provide the comparisons between the models and observation. NASA TRMM precipitation data and MERRA surface temperature data are included in part of the analysis to observe how well satellite data and reanalysis compares to nClimDiv station observation data.

  12. Linear response to leadership, effective temperature, and decision making in flocks.

    PubMed

    Pearce, Daniel J G; Giomi, Luca

    2016-08-01

    Large collections of autonomously moving agents, such as animals or micro-organisms, are able to flock coherently in space even in the absence of a central control mechanism. While the direction of the flock resulting from this critical behavior is random, this can be controlled by a small subset of informed individuals acting as leaders of the group. In this article we use the Vicsek model to investigate how flocks respond to leadership and make decisions. Using a combination of numerical simulations and continuous modeling we demonstrate that flocks display a linear response to leadership that can be cast in the framework of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, identifying an effective temperature reflecting how promptly the flock reacts to the initiative of the leaders. The linear response to leadership also holds in the presence of two groups of informed individuals with competing interests, indicating that the flock's behavioral decision is determined by both the number of leaders and their degree of influence. PMID:27627365

  13. Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garfinkel, C. I.; Waugh, D. W.; Oman, L. D.; Wang, L.; Hurwitz, M. M.

    2013-01-01

    Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

  14. Temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garfinkel, C. I.; Waugh, D. W.; Oman, L. D.; Wang, L.; Hurwitz, M. M.

    2013-09-01

    Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

  15. Temperature condensation trend in the debris-disk binary system ζ2 Reticuli

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saffe, C.; Flores, M.; Jaque Arancibia, M.; Buccino, A.; Jofré, E.

    2016-04-01

    Context. Detailed abundance studies have reported different trends between samples of stars with and without planets, possibly related to the planet formation process. Whether these differences are still present between samples of stars with and without debris disk is still unclear. Aims: We explore condensation temperature Tc trends in the unique binary system ζ1 Ret -ζ2 Ret to determine whether there is a depletion of refractories that could be related to the planet formation process. The star ζ2 Ret hosts a debris disk which was detected by an IR excess and confirmed by direct imaging and numerical simulations, while ζ1 Ret does not present IR excess or planets. These characteristics convert ζ2 Ret in a remarkable system where their binary nature together with the strong similarity of both components allow us, for the first time, to achieve the highest possible abundance precision in this system. Methods: We carried out a high-precision abundance determination in both components of the binary system via a line-by-line, strictly differential approach. First we used the Sun as a reference and then we used ζ2 Ret. The stellar parameters Teff, log g, [Fe/H], and vturb were determined by imposing differential ionization and excitation equilibrium of Fe I and Fe II lines, with an updated version of the program FUNDPAR, together with plane-parallel local thermodynamic equilibrium ATLAS9 model atmospheres and the MOOG code. We then derived detailed abundances of 24 different species with equivalent widths and spectral synthesis with the MOOG program. The chemical patterns were compared with a recently calculated solar-twins Tc trend, and then mutually between both stars of the binary system. The rocky mass of depleted refractory material was estimated according to recent data. Results: The star ζ1 Ret is found to be slightly more metal rich than ζ2 Ret by ~0.02 dex. In the differential calculation of ζ1 Ret using ζ2 Ret as reference, the abundances of the

  16. A SiC NMOS Linear Voltage Regulator for High-Temperature Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Valle-Mayorga, JA; Rahman, A; Mantooth, HA

    2014-05-01

    The first SiC integrated circuit linear voltage regulator is reported. The voltage regulator uses a 20-V supply and generates an output of 15 V, adjustable down to 10 V. It was designed for loads of up to 2 A over a temperature range of 25-225 degrees C. It was, however, successfully tested up to 300 degrees C. The voltage regulator demonstrated load regulations of 1.49% and 9% for a 2-A load at temperatures of 25 and 300 degrees C, respectively. However, the load regulation is less than 2% up to 300 degrees C for a 1-A load. The line regulation with a 2-A load at 25 and 300 degrees C was 17 and 296 mV/V, respectively. The regulator was fabricated in a Cree 4H-SiC 2-mu m experimental process and consists of 1000, 32/2-mu m NMOS depletion MOSFETs as the pass device, an integrated error amplifier with enhancement MOSFETs, and resistor loads, and uses external feedback and compensation networks to ensure operational integrity. It was designed to be integrated with high-voltage vertical power MOSFETs on the same SiC substrate. It also serves as a guide to future attempts for voltage regulation in any type of integrated SiC circuitry.

  17. An Investigation of Summertime Inland Water Body Temperatures in California and Nevada (USA): Recent Trends and Future Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Healey, Nathan; Hook, Simon; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Toffolon, Marco; Radocinski, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Inland water body temperature has been identified as an ideal indicator of potential climate change. Understanding inland water body temperature trends is important for forecasting impacts to limnological, biological, and hydrological resources. Many inland water bodies are situated in remote locations with incomplete data records of in-situ monitoring or lack in-situ observations altogether. Thus, the utilization of satellite data is essential for understanding the behavior of global inland water body temperatures. Part of this research provides an analysis of summertime (July-September) temperature trends in the largest California/Nevada (USA) inland water bodies between 1991 and 2015. We examine satellite temperature retrievals from ATSR (ATSR-1, ATSR-2, AATSR), MODIS (Terra and Aqua), and VIIRS sensors. Our findings indicate that inland water body temperatures in the western United States were rapidly warming between 1991 and 2009, but since then trends have been decreasing. This research also includes implementation of a model called air2water to predict future inland water body surface temperature through the sole input of air temperature. Using projections from CMIP5-CCSM4 output, our model indicates that Lake Tahoe (USA) is expected to experience an increase of roughly 3 °C by 2100.

  18. Trends analysis of precipitation and temperature in the Alto Genil basin (Southeast Spain) from 1970 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández-Chacón, Francisca; Pulido-Velázquez, David; Jiménez-Sánchez, Jorge; Jimeno-Sáez, Patricia; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The last studies of climate change predict a trend to more arid conditions in most of Spain. These studies show a significant increment in seasonal and annual air temperature, a reduction in mean precipitation and a raising number of extreme events of both variables. The historic data analysis is essential for identifying cycles, recent weather trends and to calibrate predictive models. In this work we analyses the recent historical climate in Alto Genil Basin. The system is located at SE Iberian Peninsula and includes an important part of the Sierra Nevada catchment. A high-resolution Spain02 dataset (~11 km) have been employed in this study. In accordance with the available data we have analyzed the period from 1970 to 2010 for daily precipitation and from 1970 to 2007 for daily temperature. In order to detect cycles and climate trends we have analyzed the temporal, seasonal and spatial distribution of the precipitation and temperature variables. We have calculated and analyzed the accumulated deviations from the mean daily precipitation. This analysis has been also performed with monthly and annual series. A non-parametric Mann Kendall method has been applied to study trends. In the period 1971-2007, the temperature has increased. The strongest trends appear since 1994. Between of 1971-1993 the average temperature observed was 13.6 °C, however from 1994 to 2007 the average temperature observed was 14.84 °C. Seasonally, during the study period, the spring has been the season with biggest increment in temperature. These temperature increments are more significant during March, April, May, June, July and October. In the period 1971-2010 the Mann Kendall test does not show a clear trend for precipitation. It is mainly due to the series culminates in three exceptional hydrological years that mask the overall trend of the study period. For this reason, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis of the Mann Kendall analysis to the period of data considered. On the

  19. Low temperature growth of diamond films on optical fibers using Linear Antenna CVD system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ficek, M.; Drijkoningen, S.; Karczewski, J.; Bogdanowicz, R.; Haenen, K.

    2016-01-01

    It is not trivial to achieve a good quality diamond-coated fibre interface due to a large difference in the properties and composition of the diamond films (or use coating even) and the optical fibre material, i.e. fused silica. One of the biggest problems is the high temperature during the deposition which influences the optical fibre or optical fibre sensor structure (e.g. long-period gratings (LPG)). The greatest advantage of a linear antenna microwave plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition system (LA MW CVD) is the fact that it allows to grow the diamond layers at low temperature (below 300°C) [1]. High quality nanocrystalline diamond (NCD) thin films with thicknesses ranging from 70 nm to 150 nm, were deposited on silicon, glass and optical fibre substrates [2]. Substrates pretreatment by dip-coating and spin coating process with a dispersion consisting of detonation nanodiamond (DND) in dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) has been applied. During the deposition process the continuous mode of operation of the LA MW CVD system was used, which produces a continuous wave at a maximum power of 1.9 kW (in each antenna). Diamond films on optical fibres were obtained at temperatures below 350°C, providing a clear improvement of results compared to our earlier work [3]. The samples were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging to investigate the morphology of the nanocrystalline diamond films. The film growth rate, film thickness, and optical properties in the VIS-NIR range, i.e. refractive index and extinction coefficient will be discussed based on measurements on reference quartz plates by using spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE).

  20. Global temperatures and sunspot numbers. Are they related? Yes, but non linearly. A reply to Gil-Alana et al. (2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2014-11-01

    Recently Gil-Alana et al. (2014) compared the sunspot number record and the temperature record and found that they differ: the sunspot number record is characterized by a dominant 11-year cycle while the temperature record appears to be characterized by a “singularity” or “pole” in the spectral density function at the “zero” frequency. Consequently, they claimed that the two records are characterized by substantially different statistical fractional models and rejected the hypothesis that the Sun influences significantly global temperatures. I will show that: (1) the “singularity” or “pole” in the spectral density function of the global surface temperature at the “zero” frequency does not exist-the observed pattern derives from the post 1880 warming trend of the temperature signal and is a typical misinterpretation that discrete power spectra of non-stationary signals can suggest; (2) appropriate continuous periodograms clarify the issue and also show a signature of the 11-year solar cycle (amplitude ≤0.1 °C), which since 1850 has an average period of about 10.4 year, and of many other natural oscillations; (3) the solar signature in the surface temperature record can be recognized only using specific techniques of analysis that take into account non-linearity and filtering of the multiple climate change contributions; (4) the post 1880-year temperature warming trend cannot be compared or studied against the sunspot record and its 11-year cycle, but requires solar proxy models showing short and long scale oscillations plus the contribution of anthropogenic forcings, as done in the literature. Multiple evidences suggest that global temperatures and sunspot numbers are quite related to each other at multiple time scales. Thus, they are characterized by cyclical fractional models. However, solar and climatic indexes are related to each other through complex and non-linear processes. Finally, I show that the prediction of a semi

  1. Multi-sliding time windows based changing trend of mean temperature and its association with the global-warming hiatus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Yan; Zhai, Panmao; Jiang, Zhihong

    2016-04-01

    Based on three global annual mean surface temperature time series and three Chinese annual mean surface air temperature time series, climate change trends on multiple timescales are analyzed by using the trend estimation method of multi-sliding time windows. The results are used to discuss the so-called global-warming hiatus during 1998-2012. It is demonstrated that different beginning and end times have an obvious effect on the results of the trend estimation, and the implications are particularly large when using a short window. The global-warming hiatus during 1998-2012 is the result of viewing temperature series on short timescales; and the events similar to it, or the events with even cold tendencies, have actually occurred many times in history. Therefore, the global-warming hiatus is likely to be a periodical feature of the long-term temperature change. It mainly reflects the decadal variability of temperature, and such a phenomenon in the short term does not alter the overall warming trend in the long term.

  2. Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Chollett, Iliana; Müller-Karger, Frank E; Heron, Scott F; Skirving, William; Mumby, Peter J

    2012-05-01

    Recent changes in ocean temperature have impacted marine ecosystem function globally. Nevertheless, the responses have depended upon the rate of change of temperature and the season when the changes occur, which are spatially variable. A rigorous statistical analysis of sea surface temperature observations over 25 years was used to examine spatial variability in overall and seasonal temperature trends within the wider Caribbean. The basin has experienced high spatial variability in rates of change of temperature. Most of the warming has been due to increases in summer rather than winter temperatures. However, warming was faster in winter in the Loop Current area and the south-eastern Caribbean, where the annual temperature ranges have contracted. Waters off Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas had a tendency towards cooling in winter, increasing the amplitude of annual temperature ranges. These detailed patterns can be used to elucidate ecological responses to climatic change in the region.

  3. Neutral atmosphere temperature trends and variability at 90 km, 70 °N, 19 °E, 2003-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eriksen Holmen, Silje; Hall, Chris M.; Tsutsumi, Masaki

    2016-06-01

    Neutral temperatures at 90 km height above Tromsø, Norway, have been determined using ambipolar diffusion coefficients calculated from meteor echo fading times using the Nippon/Norway Tromsø Meteor Radar (NTMR). Daily temperature averages have been calculated from November 2003 to October 2014 and calibrated against temperature measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on board Aura. Large-scale periodic oscillations ranging from ˜ 9 days to a year were found in the data using Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis, and these components were used to seasonally detrend the daily temperature values before assessing trends. Harmonic oscillations found are associated with the large-scale circulation in the middle atmosphere together with planetary and gravity wave activity. The overall temperature change from 2003 to 2014 is -2.2 K ± 1.0 K decade-1, while in summer (May-June-July) and winter (November-December-January) the change is -0.3 K ± 3.1 K decade-1 and -11.6 K ± 4.1 K decade-1, respectively. The temperature record is at this point too short for incorporating a response to solar variability in the trend. How well suited a meteor radar is for estimating neutral temperatures at 90 km using meteor trail echoes is discussed, and physical explanations behind a cooling trend are proposed.

  4. Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

    2013-12-01

    It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption

  5. Long term trend of sea surface temperature in the South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, A.; Park, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Using HAdISST the long term trend in the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 is investigated. In general SST has been increased since 1950, but the rate of increase is spatiotemporally uneven. Winter warming rate is greater than that of summer. In both seasons the rate of increase is greater during 1980s. Winter warming rate is greater over the deeper basin while summer warming rate is greater over the shallower southeastern part. In summer the weakening of southwesterly monsoon reduces upwelling along the east coast of Vietnam to warm the surface. On the other hand, the net surface heat flux, however, is reduced and cannot contribute to the warming. In winter the net heat flux into the sea increases and could contribute to the warming. The spatial pattern of the heat flux, however, is different from that of the warming. The heat flux is increased over the coastal area where warming is small, but decreased in deeper part where warming is greater. After 1980's the northeasterly monsoon winds weakens to reduce the southward western boundary currents, and subsequently cold advection and to warm the area.

  6. Effect of recent sea surface temperature trends on the Arctic stratospheric vortex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garfinkel, C. I.; Hurwitz, M. M.; Oman, L. D.

    2015-06-01

    Comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments and observational data are used to show that up to half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically and radiatively active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs and cooling of the tropical Pacific have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone loss is larger in the presence of changing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  7. The effects of urbanization on temperature trends in different economic periods and geographical environments in northwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Feng; Guo, Junqin; Sun, Landong; Wang, Jing; Wang, Xinping

    2014-04-01

    Using data collected from 22 urban and 65 rural meteorological stations in northwestern China between 1961 and 2009, this paper presents a study concerning the effects of urbanization on air temperature trends. To distinguish among the potential influences that stem from the economic development levels, population scales, and geographic environments of the cities in this region, the 49-year study period was divided into two periods: a period of less economic development, from 1961 to 1978, and a period of greater economic development, from 1979 to 2009. Each of the cities was classified as a megalopolis, large, or medium-small, depending on the population, and each was classified as a plateau, plain, or oasis city, depending on the surrounding geography. The differences in the air temperature trends between cities and the average of their rural counterparts were used to examine the warming effects of urbanization. The results of this study indicate that the magnitude of warming effects due to urbanization depends not only on a city's economic level, but also on the population scale and geographic environment of the city. The urbanization of most cities in northwestern China resulted in considerable negative warming effects during 1961-1978 but evidently positive effects during 1979-2009. The population scale of a city represents a significant factor: a city with a larger population has a stronger warming influence, regardless of whether the effect is negative or positive. Among the three geographic environments of the cities considered, plateaus and plains more significantly enhance warming effects than oases. The urban population trend has a very significant logarithm relationship with the urban temperature effect, but no clear relationships between urban temperature effects and city elevation were detected. The majority of the temperature trends, accounting for more than 60 % of the trends during 1961-2009, can be explained by natural factors, although

  8. NW-trending linear gravity and magnetic features: Plate tectonics implications for the western Gulf of Mexico

    SciTech Connect

    Heyn, T.; Jones, S. )

    1993-02-01

    Gravity and magnetic maps have been interpreted and integrated with geological observations to investigate the linkage between deep sub-salt basement and shallow structures imaged seismically in the Mesozoic-Cenozoic marine section of southeast Texas. Shallow structures could have been inherited from sub-salt basement; e.g. shallow anticlines imaged below a detachment which approximately corresponds with the top of the Wilcox Formation may occur above basement highs. The sub-detachment anticlines probably occur where salt thickness variations mimic the syn-rifting topography. These anticlines formed when autochthonous salt withdrew and the Mesozoic-Cenozoic marine section was draped over sub-salt basement horsts. Salt probably accumulated due to thermal subsidence after rifting, and may partly have infilled some rift basins. Balanced cross-sections indicate that salt withdraw persisted until the Late Oligocene. The interpretation is based on the identification of NW-trending lineaments or alignments of magnetic and gravity anomalies. Lineaments are interpreted as rift-related transfer zones in sub-salt basement because (i) refraction data shot perpendicular to the lineaments indicates that basement relief has a NW -trending alignment, (ii) lineaments parallel the San Marcos Arch, (iii) lineaments occur in the same location on both gravity and magnetic maps, and (iv) transfer zones of Mesozoic graben systems penetrated onshore are NW-trending. NW-trending lineaments do not fan and have a very long radius of curvature; this suggests that the pole of rotation for the early opening of the Gulf of Mexico is located many thousands of kilometers to the northeast or southwest.

  9. Comparison of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature variability and trends with Sr/Ca records from multiple corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpert, Alice E.; Cohen, Anne L.; Oppo, Delia W.; DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Gove, Jamison M.; Young, Charles W.

    2016-02-01

    Coral Sr/Ca is widely used to reconstruct past ocean temperatures. However, some studies report different Sr/Ca-temperature relationships for conspecifics on the same reef, with profound implications for interpretation of reconstructed temperatures. We assess whether these differences are attributable to small-scale oceanographic variability or "vital effects" associated with coral calcification and quantify the effect of intercolony differences on temperature estimates and uncertainties. Sr/Ca records from four massive Porites colonies growing on the east and west sides of Jarvis Island, central equatorial Pacific, were compared with in situ logger temperatures spanning 2002-2012. In general, Sr/Ca captured the occurrence of interannual sea surface temperature events but their amplitude was not consistently recorded by any of the corals. No long-term trend was identified in the instrumental data, yet Sr/Ca of one coral implied a statistically significant cooling trend while that of its neighbor implied a warming trend. Slopes of Sr/Ca-temperature regressions from the four different colonies were within error, but offsets in mean Sr/Ca rendered the regressions statistically distinct. Assuming that these relationships represent the full range of Sr/Ca-temperature calibrations in Jarvis Porites, we assessed how well Sr/Ca of a nonliving coral with an unknown Sr/Ca-temperature relationship can constrain past temperatures. Our results indicate that standard error of prediction methods underestimate the actual error as we could not reliably reconstruct the amplitude or frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events as large as ± 2°C. Our results underscore the importance of characterizing the full range of temperature-Sr/Ca relationships at each study site to estimate true error.

  10. Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Penland, C.; Matrosova, L.

    1998-03-01

    The predictability of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature on seasonal to interannual timescales by linear inverse modeling is quantified. The authors find that predictability of Caribbean Sea and north tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) is enhanced when one uses global tropical SSTAs as predictors compared with using only tropical Atlantic predictors. This predictability advantage does not carry over into the equatorial and south tropical Atlantic; indeed, persistence is a competitive predictor in those regions. To help resolve the issue of whether or not the dipole structure found by applying empirical orthogonal function analysis to tropical Atlantic SSTs is an artifact of the technique or a physically real structure, the authors combine empirically derived normal modes and their adjoints to form influence functions, maps highlighting the geographical areas to which the north tropical Atlantic and the south tropical Atlantic SSTs are most sensitive at specified lead times. When the analysis is confined to the Atlantic basin, the 6-month influence functions in the north and south tropical Atlantic tend to be of the opposite sign and evolve into clear dipoles within 6 months. When the analysis is performed on global tropical SSTs, the 6-month influence functions are connected to the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific, with the strongest signal in the north tropical Atlantic. That is, while the south tropical Atlantic region is weakly sensitive to the optimal initial structure for growth of El Nino, SST anomaly in the Nino 3 region is a strong 6-month predictor of SST anomaly in the north tropical Atlantic. The results suggest that the tropical Atlantic dipole is a real phenomenon rather than an artifact of EOF analysis but that the influence of the Indo-Pacific often disrupts the northern branch so that the dipole does not dominate tropical Atlantic dynamics on seasonal timescales. 38 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  12. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  13. Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

    2016-04-01

    , with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

  14. The spin temperature of NH3 in Comet C/1999S4 (LINEAR).

    PubMed

    Kawakita, H; Watanabe, J; Ando, H; Aoki, W; Fuse, T; Honda, S; Izumiura, H; Kajino, T; Kambe, E; Kawanomoto, S; Noguchi, K; Okita, K; Sadakane, K; Sato, B; Takada-Hidai, M; Takeda, Y; Usuda, T; Watanabe, E; Yoshida, M

    2001-11-01

    A high-dispersion spectrum of Comet C/1999S4 (LINEAR) was obtained in the optical region with the high-dispersion spectrograph on the Subaru telescope when the comet was 0.863 astronomical units from the Sun before its disintegration. We obtained high signal-to-noise ratio emission lines of the cometary NH2 bands from which an ortho-to-para ratio (OPR) of 3.33 +/- 0.07 was derived on the basis of a fluorescence excitation model. Assuming that cometary NH2 mainly originates from ammonia through photodissociation, the derived OPR of NH2 molecules should reflect that of ammonia, which provides information on the environment of molecular formation or condensation and of the thermal history of cometary ices. Assuming that the OPR of ammonia in comets was unchanged in the nucleus, the derived spin temperature of ammonia (28 +/- 2 kelvin) suggests that a formation region of the cometary ammonia ice was between the orbit of Saturn and that of Uranus in the solar nebula. PMID:11691989

  15. A Novel Method making direct use of AIRS and IASI Calibrated Radiances for Measuring Trends in Surface Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aumann, H. H.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    2014-12-01

    Making unbiased measurements of trends in the surface temperatures, particularly on a gobal scale, is challenging: While the non-frozen oceans temperature measurements are plentiful and accurate, land and polar areas are much less accurately or fairly sampled. Surface temperature deduced from infrared radiometers on polar orbiting satellites (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) at 1:30PM, the Interferometer Atmosphere Sounding Interferometer (IASI) at 9:30 AM and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) at 1:30PM), can produce what appear to be well sampled data, but dealing with clouds either by cloud filtering (MODIS, IASI) or cloud-clearing (AIRS) can create sampling bias. We use a novel method: Random Nadir Sampling (RNS) combined with Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis. We analyze the trend in the PDF of st1231, the water vapor absorption corrected brightness temperatures measured in the 1231 cm-1 atmospheric window channel. The advantage of this method is that trends can be directly traced to the known, less than 3 mK/yr trend for AIRS, in st1231. For this study we created PDFs from 22,000 daily RNS from the AIRS and IASI data. We characterized the PDFs by its daily 90%tile value, st1231p90, and analysed the statistical properties of the this time series between 2002 and 2014. The method was validated using the daily NOAA SST (RTGSST) from the non-frozen oceans: The mean, seasonal variability and anomaly trend of st1231p90 agree with the corrsponding values from the RTGSST and the anomaly correlation is larger than 0.9. Preliminary results (August 2014) confirm the global hiatus in the increase of the globally averaged surface temperatures between 2002 and 2014, with a change of less than 10 mK/yr. This uncertainty is dominated by the large interannual variability related to El Niño events. Further insite is gained by analyzing land/ocean, day/night, artic and antarctic trends. We observe a massive warming trend in the

  16. Studies on Mixed Slab-Toroidal Electron Temperature Gradient Mode Instabilities in the Columbia Linear Machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balbaky, Abed

    This thesis investigates the behavior of electron temperature gradient (ETG) driven instabilities in the Columbia Linear Machine (CLM). Building on prior work in CLM, the primary goal of this research is to produce, identify, and illuminate the basic physics of these instabilities, and explore the behavior of these instabilities under the presence of trapping and curved magnetic field lines. The first part of this thesis is focused on studying the saturated ETG mode, and the general behavior of the mode under varying levels of magnetic curvature. Measuring ETG modes can be problematic since they have large real frequencies, fast growth rates (~MHz) and small spatial scales, but carefully designed probe diagnostics can overcome these limits. In order to produce curved magnetic field lines, we modified CLM to operate with an internal movable mirror coil. We determined the temperature and density profiles under varying curvature, and measured changes in the mode structure and frequency. We found small changes in the azimuthal/poloidal structure and frequency, characterized by an increase in the m-number (mslab˜10-13 and Deltam˜1), along with small changes in the axial/toroidal structure (k∥∥, curvature < k∥∥, slab) and frequency (ocurvature < oslab). We also present one of the first experimental scaling of ETG mode amplitude as a function of curvature. Our key finding was a that overall levels of saturated ETG mode amplitude had a modest increase (˜1.5x) which is slightly larger than existing theory and simulations would predict, and that the power density and amplitude of individual mode peaks can increase more dramatically (˜2-3x amplitude). The second part of this thesis studies the radial transport for saturated ETG modes in CLM. ETG modes are believed to be a significant source of anomalous electron energy transport in plasmas, and a better understanding of these modes and the transport they drive across magnetic field lines is of particular interest

  17. Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: Evidence of human-induced climate change?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christy, J.R.; Norris, W.B.; Redmond, K.; Gallo, K.P.

    2006-01-01

    A procedure is described to construct time series of regional surface temperatures and is then applied to interior central California stations to test the hypothesis that century-scale trend differences between irrigated and nonirrigated regions may be identified. The procedure requires documentation of every point in time at which a discontinuity in a station record may have occurred through (a) the examination of metadata forms (e.g., station moves) and (b) simple statistical tests. From this "homogeneous segments" of temperature records for each station are defined. Biases are determined for each segment relative to all others through a method employing mathematical graph theory. The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby nonirrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910-2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25??C decade-1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07?? ?? 0.07??C decade-1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable -0.02?? ?? 0.10??C decade-1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4??C decade-1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

  18. Design of a platinum resistance thermometer temperature measuring transducer and improved accuracy of linearizing the output voltage

    SciTech Connect

    Malygin, V.M.

    1995-06-01

    An improved method is presented for designing a temperature measuring transducer, the electrical circuit of which comprises an unbalanced bridge, in one arm of which is a platinum resistance thermometer, and containing a differential amplifier with feedback. Values are given for the coefficients, the minimum linearization error is determined, and an example is also given of the practical design of the transducer, using the given coefficients. A determination is made of the limiting achievable accuracy in linearizing the output voltage of the measuring transducer, as a function of the range of measured temperature.

  19. The long-term trend in the diurnal temperature range over Asia and its natural and anthropogenic causes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lin; Li, Zhanqing; Yang, Xin; Gong, Hainan; Li, Chao; Xiong, Anyuan

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the causes of long-term temperature trends is at the core of climate change studies. Any observed trend can result from natural variability or anthropogenic influences or both. In the present study, we evaluated the performance of 18 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 on simulating the Asian diurnal temperature range (DTR) and explored the potential causes of the long-term trend in the DTR by examining the response of the DTR to natural forcing (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) and anthropogenic forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols) in the historical period of 1961-2005. For the climatology, the multimodel ensemble mean reproduced the geographical distribution and amplitude of the DTR over eastern China and India but underestimated the magnitudes of the DTR over the Tibetan Plateau and the high-latitude regions of the Asian continent. These negative biases in the DTR over frigid zones existed in most models. Seasonal biases in the DTR pattern from models were similar to the bias in the annual mean DTR pattern. Based on three selected state-of-the-art models, the observed decreasing trend in the DTR over Asia was reasonably reproduced in the all-forcing run. A comparison of separate forcing experiments revealed that anthropogenic forcing plays the dominant role in the declining trend in the DTR. Observations and model simulations showed that GHG forcing is mainly responsible for the negative trends in the DTR over Asia but that anthropogenic aerosol forcing was also behind the decreasing trend in the DTR over China and especially over eastern China.

  20. Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

  1. Modeled Global vs. Coastal Impacts on 1970 and 2005 Summer Daytime Temperature Trends in Coastal California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habtezion, B. L.; Gonzalez, J.; Bornstein, R. D.

    2010-12-01

    California summertime July to August (JJA) mean monthly air temperatures (1970-2005) were analyzed for two California air basins: South Coast (SoCAB) and the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), which extended into the Central Valley (CV). Daily Tmin and Tmax values were used to produce average monthly values and spatial distributions of and Tmax values trends for each air basin. Results showed concurrent cooling in coastal areas and warming at further inland areas. This pattern suggests that the regional-warming of inland areas resulted in increased coastal sea breeze activity. Further investigations by use of mesoscale model simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) meso-met model with a horizontal grid resolution of 4 km on an inner grid over SoCAB were undertaken to investigate the effects of long-term changes due to green house gas (GHG) warming and land-use land-cover changes on coastal flows. Comparison of simulated present (2000-4) and past climate (1970-4) conditions showed significant increases in sea breeze activity and thus coastal cooling, which supports the observational analysis results that coastal cooling is an indirect “reverse reaction” of GHG warming. The magnitude and location of the simulated and observed coastal-cooling region were in good agreement. Urbanization effects on coastal environment were twofold: increased urban mechanical surface roughness retards sea breeze flows, while urban heat islands (UHIs) enhance them. Significant beneficial societal impacts will result from this observed reverse-reaction to global-warming, especially during UHI-growth periods, include decreased maximum: agricultural production, O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels. Similar “reverse-reaction” effects should be found in other mid-latitude western coastal-regions.

  2. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manton, M. J.; della-Marta, P. M.; Haylock, M. R.; Hennessy, K. J.; Nicholls, N.; Chambers, L. E.; Collins, D. A.; Daw, G.; Finet, A.; Gunawan, D.; Inape, K.; Isobe, H.; Kestin, T. S.; Lefale, P.; Leyu, C. H.; Lwin, T.; Maitrepierre, L.; Ouprasitwong, N.; Page, C. M.; Pahalad, J.; Plummer, N.; Salinger, M. J.; Suppiah, R.; Tran, V. L.; Trewin, B.; Tibig, I.; Yee, D.

    2001-03-01

    Trends in extreme daily temperature and rainfall have been analysed from 1961 to 1998 for Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. This 38-year period was chosen to optimize data availability across the region. Using high-quality data from 91 stations in 15 countries, significant increases were detected in the annual number of hot days and warm nights, with significant decreases in the annual number of cool days and cold nights. These trends in extreme temperatures showed considerable consistency across the region. Extreme rainfall trends were generally less spatially coherent than were those for extreme temperature. The number of rain days (with at least 2 mm of rain) has decreased significantly throughout Southeast Asia and the western and central South Pacific, but increased in the north of French Polynesia, in Fiji, and at some stations in Australia. The proportion of annual rainfall from extreme events has increased at a majority of stations. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has declined at most stations (but not significantly), although significant increases were detected in French Polynesia. Trends in the average intensity of the wettest rainfall events each year were generally weak and not significant.

  3. Looking back and looking forwards: Historical and future trends in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific region from 1982 to 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalil, Idham; Atkinson, Peter M.; Challenor, Peter

    2016-03-01

    The ocean warming trend is a well-known global phenomenon. As early as 2001, and then reiterated in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the global average sea surface temperature (SST) will increase by about 0.2 °C per decade. To date, however, only a limited number of studies have been published reporting the spatio-temporal trends in SST in the Indo-Pacific region, one the richest marine ecosystems on Earth. In this research, the monthly 1° spatial resolution NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature (SST) V2 dataset (OISSTv2) derived from measurements made by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and in situ measurements, were used to examine the spatio-temporal trends in SST in the region. The multi-model mean SST from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6) mitigation scenario of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was also used to forecast future SST from 2020 to 2100, decadally. Three variables from the OISSTv2, namely maximum (MaxSST), mean (MeanSST) and minimum (MinSST) monthly mean SST, were regressed against time measured in months from 1982 to 2010 using linear regression. Results revealed warming trends detected for all three SST variables. In the Coral Triangle a warming trend with a rate of 0.013 °C year-1, 0.017 °C year-1, and 0.019 °C year-1 was detected over 29 years for MaxSST, MeanSST and MinSST, respectively. In the SCS, the warming rate was 0.011 °C year-1, (MaxSST), 0.012 °C year-1 (MeanSST) and 0.015 °C year-1 (MinSST) over 29 years. The CMIP5 RCP2.6 forecast suggested a future warming rate to 2100 of 0.004 °C year-1 for both areas, and for all three SST variables. The warming trends reported in this study provide useful insights for improved marine-related management.

  4. Effects and Mitigation of Clear Sky Sampling on Recorded Trends in Land Surface Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmes, T. R.; Hain, C.; de Jeu, R.; Anderson, M. C.; Crow, W. T.

    2015-12-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is a key input for physically-based retrieval algorithms of hydrological states and fluxes. Yet, it remains a poorly constrained parameter for global scale studies. The main two observational methods to remotely measure T are based on thermal infrared (TIR) observations and passive microwave observations (MW). TIR is the most commonly used approach and the method of choice to provide standard LST products for various satellite missions. MW-based LST retrievals on the other hand are not as widely adopted for land applications; currently their principle use is in soil moisture retrieval algorithms. MW and TIR technologies present two highly complementary and independent means of measuring LST. MW observations have a high tolerance to clouds but a low spatial resolution, and TIR has a high spatial resolution with temporal sampling restricted to clear skies. This paper builds on recent progress in characterizing the main structural differences between TIR LST and MW Ka-band observations, the MW frequency that is most suitable for LST sensing. By accounting for differences in diurnal timing (phase lag with solar noon), amplitude, and emissivity we construct a MW-based LST dataset that matches the diurnal characteristics of the TIR-based LSA SAF LST record. This new global dataset of MW-based LST currently spans the period of 2003-2013. In this paper we will present results of a validation of MW LST with in situ data with special emphasis on the effect of cloudiness on the performance. The ability to remotely sense the temperature of cloud covered land is what sets this MW-LST datasets apart from existing (much higher resolution) TIR-based products. As an example of this we will therefore explore how MW LST can mitigate the effect of clear-sky sampling in the context of trend and anomaly detection. We do this by contrasting monthly means of TIR-LST with its clear-sky and all-sky equivalent from an MW-LST and an NWP model.

  5. Linear temperature dependence of conductivity in the "insulating" regime of dilute two-dimensional holes in GaAs.

    SciTech Connect

    Simmons, Jerry Alvon; Noh, Hwayong; Lilly, Michael Patrick; Tsui, Daniel Chee; West, Ken W.; Pfeiffer, Loren N.

    2003-06-01

    The conductivity of extremely high mobility dilute two-dimensional holes in GaAs changes linearly with temperature in the insulating side of the metal-insulator transition. Hopping conduction, characterized by an exponentially decreasing conductivity with decreasing temperature, is not observed when the conductivity is smaller than e{sup 2}/h. We suggest that strong interactions in a regime close to the Wigner crystallization must be playing a role in the unusual transport.

  6. The temperature dependence of vibronic lineshapes: Linear electron-phonon coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Roos, Claudia; Gauss, Jürgen; Diezemann, Gregor; Köhn, Andreas

    2014-10-21

    We calculate the effect of a linear electron-phonon coupling on vibronic transitions of dye molecules of arbitrary complexity. With the assumption of known vibronic frequencies (for instance from quantum-chemical calculations), we give expressions for the absorption or emission lineshapes in a second-order cumulant expansion. We show that the results coincide with those obtained from generalized Redfield theory if one uses the time-local version of the theory and applies the secular approximation. Furthermore, the theory allows to go beyond the Huang-Rhys approximation and can be used to incorporate Dushinsky effects in the treatment of the temperature dependence of optical spectra. We consider both, a pure electron-phonon coupling independent of the molecular vibrations and a coupling bilinear in the molecular vibrational modes and the phonon coordinates. We discuss the behavior of the vibronic density of states for various models for the spectral density representing the coupling of the vibronic system to the harmonic bath. We recover some of the results that have been derived earlier for the spin-boson model and we show that the behavior of the spectral density at low frequencies determines the dominant features of the spectra. In case of the bilinear coupling between the molecular vibrations and the phonons we give analytical expressions for different spectral densities. The spectra are reminiscent of those obtained from the well known Brownian oscillator model and one finds a zero-phonon line and phonon-side bands located at vibrational frequencies of the dye. The intensity of the phonon-side bands diminishes with increasing vibrational frequencies and with decreasing coupling strength (Huang-Rhys factor). It vanishes completely in the Markovian limit where only a Lorentzian zero-phonon line is observed.

  7. Temperature-controlled cooled-tip radiofrequency linear ablation of the atria guided by a realtime position management system.

    PubMed

    Watanabe, Ichiro; Min, Nuo; Okumura, Yasuo; Ohkubo, Kimie; Kofune, Masayoshi; Ashino, Sonoko; Nagashima, Koichi; Nakai, Toshiko; Kasamaki, Yuji; Hirayama, Atsushi

    2011-01-01

    Due to the difficulty in producing a transmural linear lesion and the possibility of complications such as thrombus formation leading to thromboembolism, the catheter-based maze procedure remains problematic. We tested, in pigs, the possibility of using a temperature-controlled cooled-tip radiofrequency (RF) ablation system together with a realtime position management (RPM) system to create a transmural linear lesion uncomplicated by thrombus formation.Nine pigs underwent insertion of two electrode catheters (each with two ultrasound electrodes), one into the coronary sinus (CS) and one into the right ventricular apex (references for ultrasound-based non-fluoroscopic three-dimensional mapping). A cooled-tip catheter (with two ultrasound electrodes) was introduced into the right atrium. Linear right atrial ablation was performed with a custom radiofrequency (RF) generator. The catheter was perfused with 0.66 mL/second of saline. RF was delivered for 60 seconds at a target temperature of 40°C. A linear ablation line was created between the superior vena cava and inferior vena cava. Three-dimensional isochronal maps were created during CS pacing before and after ablation. In 4 of the 9 pigs, a transmural linear ablation line was confirmed by three-dimensional mapping and postmortem macroscopic examination. No endocardial thrombus formation was noted. Temperature-controlled cooled-tip RF linear ablation guided by an RPM system appears to have potential for creating linear lesions in the atria. Further studies are needed to determine whether such an ablation technique and the parameters used will facilitate successful completion of the catheter-based maze procedure.

  8. Continuous salinity and temperature data from san francisco estuary, 19822002: Trends and the salinity-freshwater inflow relationship

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shellenbarger, G.G.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and other federal and state agencies have been collecting continuous temperature and salinity data, two critical estuarine habitat variables, throughout San Francisco estuary for over two decades. Although this dynamic, highly variable system has been well studied, many questions remain relating to the effects of freshwater inflow and other physical and biological linkages. This study examines up to 20 years of publically available, continuous temperature and salinity data from 10 different San Francisco Bay stations to identify trends in temperature and salinity and quantify the salinityfreshwater inflow relationship. Several trends in the salinity and temperature records were identified, although the high degree of daily and interannual variability confounds the analysis. In addition, freshwater inflow to the estuary has a range of effects on salinity from -0.0020 to -0.0096 (m3 s-1) -1 discharge, depending on location in the estuary and the timescale of analyzed data. Finally, we documented that changes in freshwater inflow to the estuary that are within the range of typical management actions can affect bay-wide salinities by 0.61.4. This study reinforces the idea that multidecadal records are needed to identify trends from decadal changes in water management and climate and, therefore, are extremely valuable. ?? 2011 Coastal Education & Research Foundation.

  9. Evolution of rainfall and temperature trend and variability in Burkina Faso: Analysis of meteorological data and farmers' perception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Y. B.

    2015-12-01

    Farmers in Burkina Faso are among the most exposed to climate change/ climate variability, as their livelihoods are greatly linked to climate hazards. Rainfall and in some extent temperature are among the inputs farmers use to take decisions in their farming activities. A better understanding of factors that shape farmers' perceptions of climate change and decision to adapt farming practices is needed to take appropriate measures. In the current study farmers' perception of climate change and climate variability- specifically, changes in rainfall and temperature- were compared to historical recorded climate data. Primary data was collected through village focus-group surveys and household surveys. Nine Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were conducted in the study areas' villages; 450 households were also selected randomly from three locations and sampled out through a multi-stage sampling procedure. Secondary data on the historical precipitation and temperature of Burkina Faso from 1960 to 2012 was obtained from the National Meteorological Service of Burkina Faso (DGM) and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and temperature anomalies methodology have been used to assess anomalies in rainfall and temperature covering a period of 48 years, from 1964 to 2011; and Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimator to assess the significance of the trends and the Theil-Sen slope estimator is used to identify their magnitude. The analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change indicates that most farmers perceived a declining trend of precipitation and an increasing trend of temperature in all areas. Results from recorded climate data's analysis, revealed contrasting evidence, while that farmers' perception of temperature match with historical data, their perception of rainfall evolution were not always corroboted by scientific evidence.

  10. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    SciTech Connect

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun -Young; Lim, Young -Kwon; Prabhat, -

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more

  11. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    DOE PAGES

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; et al

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so

  12. Trends, spectral characteristics, and rainfall relationships of low-latitude sea surface temperatures at different longitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kane, R. P.

    2000-01-01

    The sea surface temperature (SST) data for low latitudes in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans for 1950-1996 (47 years) showed different seasonal variation patterns at different longitudes. When the seasonal patterns were subtracted from the monthly values, the deseasoned residuals showed considerable anomalies (interannual variability). In the Pacific the main features were the El Niño events. In the Atlantic, North and South Atlantic SST showed dissimilar anomalies, and these did not have any fixed lag or lead relationships with the Pacific events. The same was true for the low-latitude Indian Ocean SST. The correlation of Pacific SST with Atlantic or Indian Oceans' SST was less than ˜0.65, yielding a common variance (square of the correlation) of less than ˜40%. Thus, whereas SST anomalies might have some common origin, the manifestation of SST anomalies at different longitudes was erratic, with no preference for any longitude to start with, nor any definite sequence of occurrence in the Pacific relative to the Atlantic or Indian Oceans. A spectral analysis showed that all regions had quasi-biennial, quasi-triennial, and higher periodicities, but the exact values of these periodicities differed significantly at different longitudes. All parameters had long-term trends. These were mostly nonuniform, almost negligible in the first half (1950-1973) and mostly upward in the second half (1973-1996), indicating warming in recent decades, which is also reflected in decreases in snow cover area in the Northern Hemisphere. Rainfalls in various regions are considerably influenced by local SST regimes. For northeast Brazil, Atlantic SST influence is overpowering and often operates independently of the Pacific SST (El Niños). Hence the emphasis given in mass media (press, radio, and television) to the role of El Niño events only in influencing the rainfalls may turn out to be misleading, as seems to have happened for the 1997 El Niño. This El Niño started in

  13. Day-of-the-week variations of urban temperature and their long-term trends in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujibe, Fumiaki

    2010-11-01

    Temperature differences among days of the week and their long-term trends were evaluated using 29 years of hourly data from the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System network of Japan. Stations were categorized with respect to the population density around each site, and an urban temperature anomaly ( δT*) was defined as a departure from the spatial average of nearby rural stations. On Saturdays and holidays (Sundays and national holidays), δT* was lower than on weekdays by 0.2-0.25°C at Tokyo, by 0.1-0.2°C at Osaka, and by about 0.02°C at stations where the population density was 300 to 1,000 km-2. Moreover, δT* showed a relative decreasing trend over the long term on Mondays and an increasing trend on Fridays, at a rate of about 0.05-0.1°C decade-1 at Tokyo and about 0.02°C decade-1 at stations where the population density was 100 to 1,000 km-2, but no significant difference in δT* trends was observed between weekdays and weekend days.

  14. A new mean-extreme vector for the trends of temperature and precipitation over China during 1960-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyra, G. B.; Oliveira-Júnior, J. F.; Gois, G.; Cunha-Zeri, G.; Zeri, M.

    2016-06-01

    A mean-extreme (M-E) vector is defined to combine the changes of climate means and extremes. The direction of the vertical axis represents changes in means, whereas the direction of the horizontal axis represents changes in extremes. Therefore, the M-E vector can clearly reflect both the amplitude and direction of changes in climate means and extremes. Nine types of M-E vectors are defined. They are named as MuEu, MuEd, MuEz, MdEu, MdEd, MdEz, MzEu, MzEd, and MzEz. Here M and E stand for climate means and extremes, respectively, whereas u, d, and z indicate an upward, downward trend and no trend, respectively. Both temperature mean and extremely high temperature days are consistently increased (MuEu) in nearly whole China throughout four seasons. However, the MuEd-type vector dominates in some regions. The MuEd-type vector appears over the Huang Huai river basin in spring, summer and winter. For the M-E vector of temperature mean and extremely low temperature days, the MuEd-type spreads the entire China for all seasons. The M-E vector for precipitation mean and the extreme precipitation days possesses identical trends (MuEu or MdEd) despite of seasons. The MuEu-type dominates in northeastern China and west of 105°E in spring, northwestern and central/southern China in summer, west of 100°E and northeastern China in autumn, and nearly whole China in winter. Precipitation mean and extreme precipitation days are all decreased (MdEd) in the rest of China for all reasons. The trends relationship in means and extremes over China presented herein could provide a scientific foundation to predict change of extremes using change of mean as the predictor.

  15. Elevation-dependent temperature trends in the Rocky Mountain Front Range: changes over a 56- and 20-year record.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Chris R; Nufio, César R; Bowers, M Deane; Guralnick, Robert P

    2012-01-01

    Determining the magnitude of climate change patterns across elevational gradients is essential for an improved understanding of broader climate change patterns and for predicting hydrologic and ecosystem changes. We present temperature trends from five long-term weather stations along a 2077-meter elevational transect in the Rocky Mountain Front Range of Colorado, USA. These trends were measured over two time periods: a full 56-year record (1953-2008) and a shorter 20-year (1989-2008) record representing a period of widely reported accelerating change. The rate of change of biological indicators, season length and accumulated growing-degree days, were also measured over the 56 and 20-year records. Finally, we compared how well interpolated Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) datasets match the quality controlled and weather data from each station. Our results show that warming signals were strongest at mid-elevations over both temporal scales. Over the 56-year record, most sites show warming occurring largely through increases in maximum temperatures, while the 20-year record documents warming associated with increases in maximum temperatures at lower elevations and increases in minimum temperatures at higher elevations. Recent decades have also shown a shift from warming during springtime to warming in July and November. Warming along the gradient has contributed to increases in growing-degree days, although to differing degrees, over both temporal scales. However, the length of the growing season has remained unchanged. Finally, the actual and the PRISM interpolated yearly rates rarely showed strong correlations and suggest different warming and cooling trends at most sites. Interpretation of climate trends and their seasonal biases in the Rocky Mountain Front Range are dependent on both elevation and the temporal scale of analysis. Given mismatches between interpolated data and the directly measured station data, we caution against

  16. Investigating the Equilibrium Melting Temperature of Polyethylene Using the Non-Linear Hoffman-Weeks Analysis: Effect of Molecular Weight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammadi, Hadi; Marand, Herve

    The limiting equilibrium melting temperature for infinite molar mass linear polyethylene, Tmo , has been a point of controversy for about five decades. On one hand, Broadhurst and Flory-Vrij extrapolated melting data for short alkanes to a value of ca. 145oC. On the other hand, Wunderlich proposed a value of 141oC from melting studies of extended-chain PE crystals formed under high pressure. While a difference in Tmo by 4oC might seem superfluous, it has significant implication for the analysis of the temperature and chain length dependences of crystal growth kinetic data. In this work we estimate the equilibrium melting temperatures, Tm for three linear narrow molecular weight distribution polyethylenes using the non-linear Hoffman-Weeks treatment. The resulting Tm values thus obtained are significantly lower than these predicted by the Flory-Vrij treatment and are within experimental uncertainty indistinguishable from those reported by Wunderlich and Hikosaka et al. Our results also suggest that the constant C2 in the expression for the undercooling dependence of the initial lamellar thickness (lg*= C1/ ΔT + C2) increases linearly with chain length.

  17. Recent Reversal of the Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Trend and its Role in Intensifying the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Siyao; Li, Jian; Yu, Rucong; Chen, Haoming

    2015-01-01

    At the beginning of the 21st century, the July and August (JA) mean upper-tropospheric temperature over East Asia shows a significant increasing trend, contrary to the decreasing trend in the late 1970 s. The largest warming center is over northern China (between 30°N–45°N and 85°E–120°E) around 300 hPa. Together with the temperature rising, the geo-potential height rises above the warming center and drops below, which connects closely to a correspondingly significant decadal shift of the general circulation over East Asia. In the upper-level of the troposphere, an anomalous anti-cyclone dominates, and the 200–hPa westerly jet strengthens due to the increasing pole-ward geo-potential height gradient. In the lower-troposphere, the anomalous southerly wind increases around Yangtze River Valley and the East Asian summer monsoon intensifies. The integrated circulation changes seriously impact summer precipitation over East Asia. The so-called “southern flood and northern drought” (SFND) pattern since the 1970 s over eastern China has changed. As the cooling center in the 1970 s moves southward, the dry belt moves southward as well. A wet belt dominates the Huaihe River Valley after the temperature trend reversal at 2005 while southern China experiences a dry condition. PMID:26135966

  18. INSTABILITY-DRIVEN LIMITS ON HELIUM TEMPERATURE ANISOTROPY IN THE SOLAR WIND: OBSERVATIONS AND LINEAR VLASOV ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    Maruca, Bennett A.; Kasper, Justin C.; Gary, S. Peter

    2012-04-01

    Kinetic microinstabilities in the solar wind arise when the plasma deviates too far from thermal equilibrium. Previously published work has provided strong evidence that the cyclotron, mirror, and parallel and oblique firehose instabilities limit proton (i.e., ionized hydrogen) temperature anisotropy. However, few studies have thoroughly explored whether a less-abundant ion species can also trigger these instabilities. This study considered the possibility of similar instability-driven limits on {alpha}-particle (i.e., fully ionized helium) temperature anisotropy. Linear Vlasov analysis was used to derive the expected threshold conditions for instabilities driven by {alpha}-particle temperature anisotropy. Measurements in situ of {alpha}-particle temperature anisotropy from the Wind spacecraft's Faraday cups were found to be consistent with the limits imposed by these instability thresholds. This strongly suggests that {alpha}-particles, which only constitute {approx}5% of ions in the solar wind, can drive an instability if their temperature anisotropy becomes sufficiently extreme.

  19. A linear regression model for predicting PNW estuarine temperatures in a changing climate

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pacific Northwest coastal regions, estuaries, and associated ecosystems are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change, especially to changes in nearshore water temperature. While predictive climate models simulate future air temperatures, no such projections exist for...

  20. Ostracod body size trends do not follow either Bergmann's rule or Cope's rule during periods of constant temperature increase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Y.; Seshadri, P.; Amin, V.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

    2013-12-01

    Over time, organisms have adapted to changing environments by evolving to be larger or smaller. Scientists have described body-size trends using two generalized theories. Bergmann's rule states that body size is inversely related to temperature, and Cope's rule establishes an increase over time. Cope's rule has been hypothesized as a temporal manifestation of Bergmann's rule, as the temperature of the Earth has consistently decreased over time and mean body size has increased. However, during times of constant temperature increase, Bergmann's rule and Cope's rule predict opposite effects on body size. Our goal was to clarify this relationship using both accessible proxies of historic temperature - atmospheric CO2 levels and paleo-latitude. We measured ostracod lengths throughout the Paleozoic and Mesozoic eras (using the Catalogue of Ostracoda) and utilized ostracod latitudinal information from the Paleobiology Database. By closely studying body-size trends during four time periods of constant CO2 increase across spectrums of time and latitude, we were able to compare the effects of Cope's and Bergmann's rule. The correlation, p-values, and slopes of each of our graphs showed that there is no clear relationship between body size and each of these rules in times of temperature increase, both latitudinally and temporally. Therefore, both Cope's and Bergmann's rule act on marine ostracods and no rule is dominant, though our results more strongly disprove the latitudinal variation in ostracod size.

  1. [Rectal temperature trends during 24 hours in a hot climate with and without nutritional support].

    PubMed

    Cisse, F; Seck-Gassama, S; Gueye, L; Seck, D; Samb, A; Ndoye, R; Martineaud, J P

    1997-01-01

    A group of 22 young subjects staying in rest was studied in the aim to follow the nycthemeral evolution of the rectal temperature, according to two situations: 1) normal feeding, 2) absence of feeding. The use of drinking water was not limited. The experimentation was carried out in tropical area, Kédougou (Eastern Senegal), during a high period of temperature. The mean of day temperature was 38 degrees C and the night temperature, 22 degrees C. The skin and rectal temperature, the arterial pressure and the cardiac frequency were measured every three hours. The results showed a significant difference in the nycthemeral rythm of the rectal temperatures. The nocturnal temperatures were not different in the two conditions. We observed a significant elevation (delta = 0.31 +/- 0.18 degree C) of the diurne post prandial temperature. The results supported that the thermic modification observed during the experience were linked to the feed.

  2. Temperature Trends in the Upper Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere from Radio Occultation Climate Records 2002 to 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, A. K.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Ladstaedter, F.; Schwaerz, M.; Rieckh, T. M.; Kirchengast, G.

    2013-12-01

    Atmospheric climate monitoring and change detection requires observations of high quality. Conventional observations are available from weather satellites and balloons which were originally not intended to serve climate monitoring needs. The construction of climate records from these data necessitates demanding homogenization and calibration processes. During the last years intensive efforts have been put into reconciling differences in atmospheric temperature trends from radiosondes, microwave sounding instruments, and climate model data. Though basic agreement confirmed a tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, the uncertainties in the trends and their vertical structure remain large in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). A relatively new atmospheric record is available from radio occultation (RO) observations based on signals of the Global Positioning System (GPS), providing a global and continuous data set of key climate variables for the UTLS since fall 2001. The measurements are based on precise atomic clocks and feature accuracy, long-term stability, and consistency across RO missions. Due to this consistency RO measurements from different satellites can be combined without intercalibration. Profiles of bending angle, refractivity, pressure, geopotential height, and temperature are retrieved at a high vertical resolution of about 0.5 km to 1.5 km in the UTLS. Best data quality is achieved from about 5 km to 30 km altitude. Due to these characteristics RO qualifies as climate benchmark data type to investigate atmospheric climate change. In this study we use the recently reprocessed RO data record of the Wegener Center (University of Graz, Austria) over the period 2002 to 2012, including data from the CHAMP, GRACE, Formosat-3/COSMIC, and MetOp satellites. We first briefly recall the demonstrated and remarkable utility of RO for UTLS climate monitoring and then focus on temperature trends in the tropical UTLS. Vertically resolved

  3. Air Temperatures Trends in the Jakobshavn Isbræ Region, West Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayou, N.; Steffen, K.

    2012-12-01

    Since 1991, a network of Automated Weather Stations (AWS) has been monitoring the climate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) hourly. This study focuses on the trends in the climatology of the JAR3/Summit transept with an emphasis on the Swiss Camp records. Monthly and yearly averages as well as lapse rates and melt season length are explored

  4. Recent trends and variations in Baltic Sea temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elken, Jüri; Lehmann, Andreas; Myrberg, Kai

    2015-04-01

    The presentation highlights the results of physical oceanography from BACC II (Second BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin) book based on the review of recent literature published until 2013. We include also information from some more recent publications. A recent warming trend in sea surface waters has been clearly demonstrated by all available methods: in-situ measurements, remote sensing data and modelling tools. In particular, remote sensing data for the period 1990-2008 indicate that the annual mean SST has increased even by 1°C per decade, with the greatest increase in the northern Bothnian Bay and also with large increases in the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Riga, and the northern Baltic Proper. Although the increase in the northern areas is affected by the recent decline in the extent and duration of sea ice, and corresponding changes in surface albedo, warming is still evident during all seasons and with the greatest increase occurring in summer. The least warming of surface waters (0.3-0.5°C per decade) occurred northeast of Bornholm Island up to and along the Swedish coast, probably owing to an increase in the frequency of coastal upwelling forced by the westerly wind events. Comparing observations with the results of centennial-scale modelling, recent changes in sea water temperature appear to be within the range of the variability observed during the past 500 years. Overall salinity pattern and stratification conditions are controlled by river runoff, wind conditions, and salt water inflows through the Danish straits. The mean top-layer salinity is mainly influenced by the accumulated river runoff, with higher salinity during dry periods and lower salinity during wet periods. Observations reveal a low-salinity period above the halocline starting in the 1980s. The strength of stratification and deep salinity are reduced when the mean zonal wind stress increases, as it occurred since 1987. Major Baltic Inflows of highly saline

  5. The effect of changes in sea surface temperature on linear growth of Porites coral in Ambon Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Corvianawatie, Corry Putri, Mutiara R.; Cahyarini, Sri Y.

    2015-09-30

    Coral is one of the most important organisms in the coral reef ecosystem. There are several factors affecting coral growth, one of them is changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The purpose of this research is to understand the influence of SST variability on the annual linear growth of Porites coral taken from Ambon Bay. The annual coral linear growth was calculated and compared to the annual SST from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST v3b) model. Coral growth was calculated by using Coral X-radiograph Density System (CoralXDS) software. Coral sample X-radiographs were used as input data. Chronology was developed by calculating the coral’s annual growth bands. A pair of high and low density banding patterns observed in the coral’s X-radiograph represent one year of coral growth. The results of this study shows that Porites coral extents from 2001-2009 and had an average growth rate of 1.46 cm/year. Statistical analysis shows that the annual coral linear growth declined by 0.015 cm/year while the annual SST declined by 0.013°C/year. SST and the annual linear growth of Porites coral in the Ambon Bay is insignificantly correlated with r=0.304 (n=9, p>0.05). This indicates that annual SST variability does not significantly influence the linear growth of Porites coral from Ambon Bay. It is suggested that sedimentation load, salinity, pH or other environmental factors may affect annual linear coral growth.

  6. The effect of changes in sea surface temperature on linear growth of Porites coral in Ambon Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corvianawatie, Corry; Cahyarini, Sri Y.; Putri, Mutiara R.

    2015-09-01

    Coral is one of the most important organisms in the coral reef ecosystem. There are several factors affecting coral growth, one of them is changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The purpose of this research is to understand the influence of SST variability on the annual linear growth of Porites coral taken from Ambon Bay. The annual coral linear growth was calculated and compared to the annual SST from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST v3b) model. Coral growth was calculated by using Coral X-radiograph Density System (CoralXDS) software. Coral sample X-radiographs were used as input data. Chronology was developed by calculating the coral's annual growth bands. A pair of high and low density banding patterns observed in the coral's X-radiograph represent one year of coral growth. The results of this study shows that Porites coral extents from 2001-2009 and had an average growth rate of 1.46 cm/year. Statistical analysis shows that the annual coral linear growth declined by 0.015 cm/year while the annual SST declined by 0.013°C/year. SST and the annual linear growth of Porites coral in the Ambon Bay is insignificantly correlated with r=0.304 (n=9, p>0.05). This indicates that annual SST variability does not significantly influence the linear growth of Porites coral from Ambon Bay. It is suggested that sedimentation load, salinity, pH or other environmental factors may affect annual linear coral growth.

  7. A Temperature-Dependent, Linearly Interpolable, Tabulated Cross Section Library Based on ENDF/B-VI, Release 4.

    1997-09-09

    Version 00 As distributed, the original evaluated data includes cross sections represented in the form of a combination of resonance parameters and/or tabulated energy dependent cross sections, nominally at 0 Kelvin temperature. For use in applications, these ENDF/B-VI, Release 4 data were processed into the form of temperature dependent cross sections at eight temperatures between 0 and 2100 Kelvin, in steps of 300 Kelvin. At each temperature the cross sections are tabulated and linearly interpolablemore » in energy. The library contains data for 321 evaluations. The CCC-638/TART96 code package is recommended for use with these data. Codes within TART96 can be used to display these data or to run calculations using these data.« less

  8. A Temperature-Dependent, Linearly Interpolable, Tabulated Cross Section Library Based on ENDF/B-VII.0.

    SciTech Connect

    CULLEN, D. E.

    2008-12-03

    Version 00 As distributed, the ENDF/B-VII.0 data includes cross sections represented in the form of a combination of resonance parameters and/or tabulated energy dependent cross sections, nominally at 0 Kelvin temperature. For use in our applications the ENDF/B-VII.0 library has been processed into cross sections at eight neutron reactor like temperatures, between 0 and 2100 Kelvin, in steps of 300 Kelvin. It has also been processed to five astrophysics like temperatures: 1, 10, 100 eV, 1 and 10 keV. For reference purposes, 300 Kelvin is approximately 1/40 eV, so that 1 eV is approximately 12,000 Kelvin. At each temperature the cross sections are tabulated and linearly interpolable in energy. CCC-638/TART2005 is recommended for use with these data. Codes within TART can be used to display these data or to run calculations using these data.

  9. Pt/ZnO nanoarray nanogenerator as self-powered active gas sensor with linear ethanol sensing at room temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yayu; Lai, Xuan; Deng, Ping; Nie, Yuxin; Zhang, Yan; Xing, Lili; Xue, Xinyu

    2014-03-01

    A self-powered gas sensor that can actively detect ethanol at room temperature has been realized from a Pt/ZnO nanoarray nanogenerator. Pt nanoparticles are uniformly distributed on the whole surface of ZnO nanowires. The piezoelectric output of Pt/ZnO nanoarrays can act not only as a power source, but also as a response signal to ethanol at room temperature. Upon exposure to dry air and 1500 ppm ethanol at room temperature, the piezoelectric output of the device under the same compressive strain is 0.672 and 0.419 V, respectively. Moreover, a linear dependence of the sensitivity on the ethanol concentration is observed. Such a linear ethanol sensing at room temperature can be attributed to the atmosphere-dependent variety of the screen effect on the piezoelectric output of ZnO nanowires, the catalytic properties of Pt nanoparticles, and the Schottky barriers at Pt/ZnO interfaces. The present results can stimulate research in the direction of designing new material systems for self-powered room-temperature gas sensing.

  10. Recent Trends in Permafrost Temperature From North American Sites Contributing to the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, S.; Burgess, M.; Romanovsky, V.; Clow, G.; Brown, J.

    2004-05-01

    The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) was established in 1999 to provide long-term field observations of active layer and permafrost thermal state that are required to determine the present permafrost conditions and to detect changes in permafrost stability. The data supplied by this network enhances our ability to predict the consequences of permafrost degradation associated with climate warming and to develop adaptation strategies to respond to these changes. The GTN-P contributes to the World Meteorological Organization's Global Climate Observing System and Global Terrestrial Observing System. This paper focuses on the thermal monitoring component of the GTN-P. To date, over 300 thermal monitoring sites have been identified from 16 countries for inclusion in the GTN-P. Site descriptions (metadata) and summary data are disseminated through the GTN-P web site (www.gtnp.org). Plans are being developed for a GTN-P contribution to the International Polar Year which will involve a collection of data from all monitoring sites if possible in 2006 and 2007. This paper reports initial results from North American sites. The results show that although recent warming of permafrost has been observed across the North American permafrost zone, the magnitude and timing of this warming varies. For example, warming has been observed since the early to mid 1980s in the western North American Arctic. Warming however in the Canadian eastern and high Arctic occurred in the late 1990s with cooler permafrost temperature generally occurring in the 1980s and early 1990s. These trends in permafrost temperature are consistent with air temperature trends observed since the 1970s in the Canadian Arctic. Variability in snow cover especially in the high Arctic, is also an important factor influencing the spatial and temporal trends in permafrost temperature.

  11. Technology trends in high temperature pressure transducers: The impact of micromachining

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mallon, Joseph R., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the implications of micromachining technology on the development of high temperature pressure transducers. The introduction puts forth the thesis that micromachining will be the technology of choice for the next generation of extended temperature range pressure transducers. The term micromachining is defined, the technology is discussed and examples are presented. Several technologies for high temperature pressure transducers are discussed, including silicon on insulator, capacitive, optical, and vibrating element. Specific conclusions are presented along with recommendations for development of the technology.

  12. A new perspective on recent global warming: Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Karl, T.R.; Knight, R.W.; Gallo, K.P.; Peterson, T.C. ); Jones, P.D. ); Kukla, G. ); Plummer, N. ); Razuvayev, V. ); Lindseay, J. ); Charlson, R.J. )

    1993-06-01

    In this work, it was concluded that monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over 50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass, accounting for 37% of the global landmass, indicate that the rise of the minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that of the maximum temperature during the period 1951-90 (0.84[degrees]C versus 0.28[degrees]C). The decrease of the diurnal temperature range is approximately equal to the increase of mean temperature. The asymmetry is detectable in all seasons and in most of the regions studied. The decrease in the daily temperature range is partially related to increases in cloud cover. Furthermore, a large number of atmospheric and surface boundary conditions are shown to differentially affect the maximum and minimum temperature. Linkages of the observed changes in the diurnal temperature range to large-scale climate forcings, such as anthropogenic increases in sulfate aerosols, greenhouse gases, or biomass burning (smoke), remain tentative. Nonetheless, the observed decrease of the diurnal temperature range is clearly important, both scientifically and practically. 36 refs., 9 figs., 5 tabs.

  13. Multisite multivariate modeling of daily precipitation and temperature in the Canadian Prairie Provinces using generalized linear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asong, Zilefac E.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-02-01

    Based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework, a multisite stochastic modelling approach is developed using daily observations of precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures from 120 sites located across the Canadian Prairie Provinces: Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Temperature is modeled using a two-stage normal-heteroscedastic model by fitting mean and variance components separately. Likewise, precipitation occurrence and conditional precipitation intensity processes are modeled separately. The relationship between precipitation and temperature is accounted for by using transformations of precipitation as covariates to predict temperature fields. Large scale atmospheric covariates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-I, teleconnection indices, geographical site attributes, and observed precipitation and temperature records are used to calibrate these models for the 1971-2000 period. Validation of the developed models is performed on both pre- and post-calibration period data. Results of the study indicate that the developed models are able to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of observed precipitation and temperature fields, such as inter-site and inter-variable correlation structure, and systematic regional variations present in observed sequences. A number of simulated weather statistics ranging from seasonal means to characteristics of temperature and precipitation extremes and some of the commonly used climate indices are also found to be in close agreement with those derived from observed data. This GLM-based modelling approach will be developed further for multisite statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model outputs to explore climate variability and change in this region of Canada.

  14. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of air temperature in Europe and Western Asia using data-coupled clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chidean, Mihaela I.; Muñoz-Bulnes, Jesús; Ramiro-Bargueño, Julio; Caamaño, Antonio J.; Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho

    2015-06-01

    Over the last decades, different machine learning techniques have been used to detect climate change patterns, mostly using data from measuring stations located in different parts of the world. Some previous studies focus on temperature as primary variable of study, though there have been other works focused on precipitation or even wind speed as objective variable. In this paper, we use the self-organized Second Order Data Coupled Clustering (SODCC) algorithm to carry out a spatio-temporal analysis of temperature patterns in Europe. By applying the SODCC we identify three different regimes of spatio-temporal correlations based on their geographical extent: small, medium, and large-scale regimes. Based on these regimes, it is possible to detect a change in the spatio-temporal trend of air temperature, reflecting a shift in the extent of the correlations in stations in the Iberian Peninsula and Southern France. We also identify an oscillating spatio-temporal trend in the Western Asia region and a stable medium-scale regime affecting the British Isles. These results are found to be consistent with previous studies in climate change. The patterns obtained with the SODCC algorithm may represent a signal of climate change to be taken into account, and so the SODCC could be used as detection method.

  15. Trends and abrupt changes in 104 years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H.; Robertson, Dale M.; Lathrop, Richard C.; Hamilton, David P.

    2016-05-01

    The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911-2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °C per decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s-1 before 1994 to 3.74 m s-1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (-1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911-1980, 1981-1993, and 1994-2014) delineated by

  16. The importance of the covariation of the geographical distribution of SSTs and deep convection for tropical tropospheric temperature trends 1980-present

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fueglistaler, Stephan; Flannaghan, Thomas; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Held, Isaac; Radley, Claire; Zhao, Ming; Wyman, Bruce

    2016-04-01

    Enhanced upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface in the tropics is a prominent feature of numerical model simulations, but it has been suggested that models overestimate this warming compared to observations for the period 1980 to present. Here, we focus on the factors controlling atmospheric temperature trends in numerical model calculations with prescribed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). CMIP5 model runs show a remarkably large spread in tropical temperature trends over the period 1980-2008 despite being forced with observed SSTs. Here, we show that the model trends are consistent with the atmospheric temperature profile being tightly constrained by the surface layer conditions in regions of deep convection. Large trend differences arise from the use of two different SST data, the "HURRELL" and the "HadISST1" data. These two SSTs have very similar tropical average trends, but differ substantially in the warmest percentiles where most deep convection occurs. The models' temperature trend differences in the tropical troposphere reflect the trend differences in the regions of highest SSTs. Further, we show that trend differences in model calculations using identical SSTs is strongly related to differences in the geographical pattern of strong precipitation (used as a simple proxy for deep convection) between models, and between ensemble runs of a model. The time series of precipitation weighted SSTs can explain more than half of the variance in temperature trends. The variance in trends between ensemble members of the same model, and between ensemble means of different models, is similar. However, the decrease in variance upon averaging over ensemble members is modest compared to the expected scaling for independent samples, which provides evidence for systematic differences between models in their response in the geographical distribution of convection to changes in SST patterns.

  17. [The Clinical Application Status and Development Trends of Hydrogen Peroxide Low Temperature Plasma Sterilizers].

    PubMed

    Zhuang, Min; Zheng, Yunxin; Chen, Ying; Hou, Bin; Xu, Zitian

    2016-01-01

    The hydrogen peroxide low temperature plasma sterilization technology solved the problems of thermo-sensitive materials' disinfection and sterilization based on its development and unique characteristics. This paper introduced the researches of clinical application quality control, and showed the hydrogen peroxide low temperature plasma sterilizers were being widely used in hospitals and highly recognized. According to the clinical data and the literatures of the domestic equipment in preliminary application, it could be concluded that the technology maturity of domestic hydrogen peroxide low temperature plasma sterilizers was in a high level. The advantages of using domestic hydrogen peroxide low temperature plasma sterilizers to do disinfection and sterilization included lower cost, safer, faster and non-toxic, etc. Also the management system should be improved and the clinical staff should master the technical essentials, obey the procedures strictly, verify periodically and offer full monitoring to upgrade the quality of sterilization. PMID:27197500

  18. [The Clinical Application Status and Development Trends of Hydrogen Peroxide Low Temperature Plasma Sterilizers].

    PubMed

    Zhuang, Min; Zheng, Yunxin; Chen, Ying; Hou, Bin; Xu, Zitian

    2016-01-01

    The hydrogen peroxide low temperature plasma sterilization technology solved the problems of thermo-sensitive materials' disinfection and sterilization based on its development and unique characteristics. This paper introduced the researches of clinical application quality control, and showed the hydrogen peroxide low temperature plasma sterilizers were being widely used in hospitals and highly recognized. According to the clinical data and the literatures of the domestic equipment in preliminary application, it could be concluded that the technology maturity of domestic hydrogen peroxide low temperature plasma sterilizers was in a high level. The advantages of using domestic hydrogen peroxide low temperature plasma sterilizers to do disinfection and sterilization included lower cost, safer, faster and non-toxic, etc. Also the management system should be improved and the clinical staff should master the technical essentials, obey the procedures strictly, verify periodically and offer full monitoring to upgrade the quality of sterilization.

  19. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature over the Canadian Prairie Provinces using the Generalized Linear Model statistical downscaling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asong, Z. E.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-08-01

    In this study, a multisite multivariate statistical downscaling approach based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework is developed to downscale daily observations of precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures from 120 sites located across the Canadian Prairie Provinces: Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. First, large scale atmospheric covariates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis-I, teleconnection indices, geographical site attributes, and observed precipitation and temperature records are used to calibrate GLMs for the 1971-2000 period. Then the calibrated models are used to generate daily sequences of precipitation and temperature for the 1962-2005 historical (conditioned on NCEP predictors), and future period (2006-2100) using outputs from five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) Earth System Models corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate that the fitted GLMs are able to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of observed precipitation and temperature fields. According to the downscaled future climate, mean precipitation is projected to increase in summer and decrease in winter while minimum temperature is expected to warm faster than the maximum temperature. Climate extremes are projected to intensify with increased radiative forcing.

  20. Temperature trends and interannual variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garfinkel, Chaim; Waugh, Darryn; Oman, Luke; Wang, Lei; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2014-05-01

    Satellite data and chemistry-climate models are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. The observations show significant zonal variations in the in upper tropospheric (UT) and lower stratospheric (LS) tropical temperature trends (with largest UT warming and LS cooling over the Indo-Pacific region). Chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are used to demonstrate that SST trends are driving the zonal asymmetry, and that the anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. CCM experiments are also used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of SSTs dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino, with response varying with season and between different variants of the El Nino. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the central and eastern El Nino events is around 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

  1. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  2. Future trend of extreme value distributions of wintertime surface air temperatures over Korea and the associated physical changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Kwang-Yul; Kim, Ji-Won; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chun-Ho

    2013-11-01

    Daily winter temperatures in Korea have been analyzed via CSEOF analysis. Then, each PC time series was detrended and was fitted to an AR (autoregressive) model. Based on the identified AR model, an artificial time series of arbitrary length can be generated by using an arbitrary white-noise time series. In this way, one hundred new sets of PC time series were generated over the period of 1973-2058. Then, the trend for each PC time series was added back to the artificial PC time series extending the trend until 2058. Ultimately, artificial daily winter temperatures in Korea have been constructed by using the artificial PC time series and the original loading vectors derived from the observational data. The 100 new data sets have been investigated in order to understand the winter temperature variability 50 years into the future. Regression analysis in CSEOF space shows that temperature increase in Korea is associated with increased 850-hPa air temperature over most of the Asian domain (97°-153°E × 22°-73°N) and increased 850-hPa geopotential height in the southern part of the domain. As a result, southerly and southeasterly wind anomalies develop carrying positive temperature anomalies northward and northwestward. Both the 200-hPa air temperature and geopotential height changes indicate that there will be fairly significant northward shift of the jet stream in future. The standard deviation of the 200-hPa potential vorticity increases implying that shortwave trough and henceforth baroclinic instability will increase in future. Finally, GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution and GPD (Generalized Pareto distribution) distribution have been compared between the observational records and the future records of the same length. The extreme value distributions based on the synthetic datasets show that warm extreme events will be more extreme in future and cold extreme events, on the other hand, will be less extreme. This study provides an estimate of future

  3. On the integral-balance approach to the transient heat conduction with linearly temperature-dependent thermal diffusivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fabre, Antoine; Hristov, Jordan

    2016-04-01

    Closed form approximate solutions to nonlinear transient heat conduction with linearly temperature-dependent thermal diffusivity have been developed by the integral-balance integral method under transient conditions. The solutions uses improved direct approaches of the integral method and avoid the commonly used linearization by the Kirchhoff transformation. The main steps in the new solutions are improvements in the integration technique of the double-integration technique and the optimization of the exponent of the approximate parabolic profile with unspecified exponent. Solutions to Dirichlet and Neumann boundary condition problems have been developed as examples by the classical Heat-balance integral method (HBIM) and the Double-integration method (DIM). Additional examples with HBIM and DIM solutions to cases when the Kirchhoff transform is initially applied have been developed.

  4. Linear-in-temperature resistivity close to a topological metal insulator transition in ultra-multi valley fcc-ytterbium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enderlein, Carsten; Fontes, Magda; Baggio-Saitovich, Elisa; Continentino, Mucio A.

    2016-01-01

    The semimetal-to-semiconductor transition in fcc-Yb under modest pressure can be considered a picture book example of a metal-insulator transition of the Lifshitz type. We have performed transport measurements at low temperatures in the closest vicinity of the transition and related DFT calculations of the Fermi surface. Our resistivity measurements show a linear temperature dependence with an unusually low dρ / dT at low temperatures approaching the MIT. The calculations suggest fcc-ytterbium being an ultra-multi valley system with 24 electron and 6 hole pockets in the Brillouin zone. Such Fermi surface topology naturally supports the appearance of strongly correlated phases. An estimation of the quasiparticle-enhanced effective mass shows that the scattering rate is by at least two orders of magnitude lower than in other materials which exhibit linear-in-T behavior at a quantum critical point. However, we cannot exclude an excessive effective mass enhancement, when the van Hove singularity touches the Fermi level.

  5. Trend analysis of extreme climate indices using simulated temperature and precipitation time series for the Carpathian basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Kovacs, G.

    2009-09-01

    Global warming may be recognized both in shifts of regional mean climate, and also, in the frequency and intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices using different threshold values. In order to evaluate the expected trends (by 2071-2100 relative to the 1961-1990 reference period) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Two emission scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to compare past and future simulated values of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are

  6. Correlation and Trend Studies of the Sea Ice Cover and Surface Temperatures in the Arctic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Co-registered and continuous satellite data of sea ice concentrations and surface ice temperatures from 1981 to 1999 are analyzed to evaluate relationships between these two critical climate parameters and what they reveal in tandem about the changing Arctic environment. During the 18-year period, the actual Arctic ice area is shown to be declining at a rate of 3.1 +/- 0.4 % /decade while the surface ice temperature has been increasing at 0.4 +/- 0.2 K /decade. Yearly anomaly maps also show that the ice concentration anomalies are predominantly positive in the 1980s and negative in the 1990s while surface temperature anomalies were mainly negative in the 1980s and positive in the 1990s. The yearly ice concentration and surface temperature anomalies are shown to be highly correlated indicating a strong link especially in the seasonal region and around the periphery of the perennial ice cover. The surface temperature data are also especially useful in providing the real spatial scope of each warming (or cooling) phenomenon that usually extends beyond the boundaries of the sea ice cover. Studies of the temporal variability of the summer ice minimum also reveal that the perennial ice cover has been declining at the rate of 6.6% /decade while the summer surface ice temperature has been increasing at the rate of 1.3 K /decade. Moreover, high year-to-year fluctuations in the minimum ice cover in the 1990s may have caused reductions in average thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover.

  7. Lead-lag relationships between atmospheric trends of temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations during the pliocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vakulenko, N. V.; Kotlyakov, V. M.; Sonechkin, D. M.

    2016-04-01

    Reconstructions of the average global near-surface air temperature and carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere for the late Pliocene are compared. For this purpose, a special technique of multiscale analysis based on wavelets was developed. It is found that temperature changes on timescales of 100 to 500 kyr lead the respective changes in the carbon dioxide concentration at about 10-25 kyr. It means that these reconstructions cannot be used for assessing the climate sensitivity to changes in the carbon dioxide concentration.

  8. The relation between atmospheric humidity and temperature trends for stratospheric water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fueglistaler, S.; Liu, Y. S.; Flannaghan, T. J.; Haynes, P. H.; Dee, D. P.; Read, W. J.; Remsberg, E. E.; Thomason, L. W.; Hurst, D. F.; Lanzante, J. R.; Bernath, P. F.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor—a fundamental component of the global climate system—for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual anomalies of the model predictions show periods of fairly regular oscillations, alternating with more quiescent periods and a few large-amplitude oscillations. They all agree well (correlation coefficients 0.9 and larger) with observations for higher-frequency variations (periods up to 2-3 years). Differences between SWV observations, and temperature data, respectively, render analysis of the model minus observation residual difficult. However, we find fairly well-defined periods of drifts in the residuals. For the 1980s, model predictions differ most, and only the calculation with ERA-Interim temperatures is roughly within observational uncertainties. All model predictions show a drying relative to HALOE in the 1990s, followed by a moistening in the early 2000s. Drifts to NOAA-FPH are similar (but stronger), whereas no drift is present against SAGE II. As a result, the model calculations have a less pronounced drop in SWV in 2000 than HALOE. From the mid-2000s onward, models and observations agree reasonably, and some differences can be traced to problems in the temperature data. These results indicate that both SWV and temperature data may still

  9. The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity and Temperature Trends for Stratospheric Water

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fueglistaler, S.; Liu, Y. S.; Flannaghan, T. J.; Haynes, P. H.; Dee, D. P.; Read, W. J.; Remsberg, E. E.; Thomason, L. W.; Hurst, D. F.; Lanzante, J. R.; Bernath, P. F.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual anomalies of the model predictions show periods of fairly regular oscillations, alternating with more quiescent periods and a few large-amplitude oscillations. They all agree well (correlation coefficients 0.9 and larger) with observations for higherfrequency variations (periods up to 2-3 years). Differences between SWV observations, and temperature data, respectively, render analysis of the model minus observation residual difficult. However, we find fairly well-defined periods of drifts in the residuals. For the 1980s, model predictions differ most, and only the calculation with ERA-Interim temperatures is roughly within observational uncertainties. All model predictions show a drying relative to HALOE in the 1990s, followed by a moistening in the early 2000s. Drifts to NOAA-FPH are similar (but stronger), whereas no drift is present against SAGE II. As a result, the model calculations have a less pronounced drop in SWV in 2000 than HALOE. From the mid-2000s onward, models and observations agree reasonably, and some differences can be traced to problems in the temperature data. These results indicate that both SWV and temperature data may still suffer

  10. Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

  11. Oxygen-isotope trends and seawater temperature changes across the Late Cambrian Steptoean positive carbon-isotope excursion (SPICE event)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Elrick, M.; Rieboldt, S.; Saltzman, M.; McKay, R.M.

    2011-01-01

    The globally recognized Late Cambrian Steptoean positive C-isotope excursion (SPICE) is characterized by a 3???-5??? positive ??13C shift spanning <4 m.y. Existing hypotheses suggest that the SPICE represents a widespread ocean anoxic event leading to enhanced burial/preservation of organic matter (Corg) and pyrite. We analyzed ??18O values of apatitic inarticulate brachiopods from three Upper Cambrian successions across Laurentia to evaluate paleotemperatures during the SPICE. ??18O values range from ~12.5??? to 16.5???. Estimated seawater temperatures associated with the SPICE are unreasonably warm, suggesting that the brachiopod ??18O values were altered during early diagenesis. Despite this, all three localities show similar trends with respect to the SPICE ??13C curve, suggesting that the brachiopod apatite preserves a record of relative ??18O and temperature changes. The trends include relatively high ??18O values at the onset of the SPICE, decreasing and lowest values during the main event, and an increase in values at the end of the event. The higher ??18O values during the global extinction at the onset of the SPICE suggests seawater cooling and supports earlier hypotheses of upwelling of cool waters onto the shallow shelf. Decreasing and low ??18O values coincident with the rising limb of the SPICE support the hypothesis that seawater warming and associated reduced thermohaline circulation rates contributed to decreased dissolved O2 concentrations, which enhanced the preservation/burial of Corg causing the positive ??13C shift. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

  12. Temperature in Science Textbooks: Changes and Trends in Cross-National Perspective (1950-2000)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Radtka, Catherine

    2013-01-01

    This study explores the way the concept of temperature was presented in lower-secondary science textbooks in France, Poland and England at the end of the 1950s and in the 2000s. I draw on history of science, history of education and book history to analyze different treatments of an apparently-similar scientific concept with regard to national…

  13. Spatial and temporal variability in minimum temperature trends in the western U.S. sagebrush steppe

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate is a major driver of ecosystem dynamics. In recent years there has been considerable interest in future climate change and potential impacts on ecosystems and management options. In this paper, we analyzed minimum monthly temperature (T min) for ten rural locations in the western sagebrush...

  14. The relation between atmospheric humidity and temperature trends for stratospheric water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fueglistaler, S.; Liu, Y.; Flannaghan, T.; Haynes, P.; Dee, D.; Remsberg, E. E.; Thomason, L.; Hurst, D. F.; Lanzante, J.; Bernath, P. F.; Read, W.

    2012-12-01

    We analyse the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapour - a fundamental component of the global climate system - for stratospheric water vapour (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from the NOAA Frostpoint Hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE-II), Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and temperatures from three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and CFSR), and three homogenised radiosonde datasets (RATPAC, HadAT2 and RICHv1.5). All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual anomalies of the model predictions show periods of fairly regular oscillations, alternating with more quiescent periods and a few large-amplitude oscillations. They all agree well (correlation coefficients 0.9 and larger) with observations for higher-frequency variations (periods up to 2-3 years). Differences between SWV observations, and temperature data, respectively, render analysis of the model-observation residual difficult. However, we find fairly well-defined periods of drifts in the residuals. For the 1980's model predictions differ most, and only the calculation with ERA-Interim temperatures is roughly within observational uncertainties. All model predictions show a drying relative to HALOE in the 1990's, followed by a moistening in the early 2000's. Drifts to NOAA-FPH are similar (but stronger), whereas no drift is present against SAGE-II. As a result, the model calculations have a less pronounced drop in SWV in 2000 than HALOE. From the mid-2000's onwards, models and observations agree reasonably, and some differences can be traced to problems in the temperature data. These results indicate that both SWV and temperature data may still suffer from artefacts that need to be resolved in order to

  15. High temperature spin dynamics in linear magnetic chains, molecular rings, and segments by nuclear magnetic resonance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adelnia, Fatemeh; Mariani, Manuel; Ammannato, Luca; Caneschi, Andrea; Rovai, Donella; Winpenny, Richard; Timco, Grigore; Corti, Maurizio; Lascialfari, Alessandro; Borsa, Ferdinando

    2015-05-01

    We present the room temperature proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) nuclear spin-lattice relaxation rate (NSLR) results in two 1D spin chains: the Heisenberg antiferromagnetic (AFM) Eu(hfac)3NITEt and the magnetically frustrated Gd(hfac)3NITEt. The NSLR as a function of external magnetic field can be interpreted very well in terms of high temperature spin dynamics dominated by a long time persistence of the decay of the two-spin correlation function due to the conservation of the total spin value for isotropic Heisenberg chains. The high temperature spin dynamics are also investigated in Heisenberg AFM molecular rings. In both Cr8 closed ring and in Cr7Cd and Cr8Zn open rings, i.e., model systems for a finite spin segment, an enhancement of the low frequency spectral density is found consistent with spin diffusion but the high cut-off frequency due to intermolecular anisotropic interactions prevents a detailed analysis of the spin diffusion regime.

  16. Design of High Temperature Ultrasonic Linear Arrays for Under-Sodium Viewing

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Bond, Leonard J.; Jones, Anthony M.; Peters, Timothy J.

    2010-11-07

    This paper summarizes the design process for high temperature ultrasonic phased array transducers for imaging in liquid sodium at temperatures up to 260C. The project is funded by the USDOE Generation IV Reactor Program and includes collaboration with the Japanese Atomic Energy Agency. The transducer system is being designed to be able to provide images inside a sodium cooled fast reactor, to support operation and maintenance activities including potentially location of looseor damaged parts during service outages. The prototype transducer array is being designed for 8 to 16, 3MHz rectangular lead niobate (K-81) or bismuth titanate (K-15) piezoelectric elements spaced at λ/2 (wavelength in sodium). A nickel or nickel alloy faceplate serves as the sodium wetting surface. Scan angle of the focused ultrasonic beam is ±30 degrees. Imaging spatial resolution is ≤ 1mm. The array is designed to be operated using a commercial phased array control system and it is planned that array testing will be performed in room temperature water, hot oil (260C), and molten sodium (260C).

  17. High temperature spin dynamics in linear magnetic chains, molecular rings, and segments by nuclear magnetic resonance

    SciTech Connect

    Adelnia, Fatemeh; Lascialfari, Alessandro; Mariani, Manuel; Ammannato, Luca; Caneschi, Andrea; Rovai, Donella; Winpenny, Richard; Timco, Grigore; Corti, Maurizio Borsa, Ferdinando

    2015-05-07

    We present the room temperature proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) nuclear spin-lattice relaxation rate (NSLR) results in two 1D spin chains: the Heisenberg antiferromagnetic (AFM) Eu(hfac){sub 3}NITEt and the magnetically frustrated Gd(hfac){sub 3}NITEt. The NSLR as a function of external magnetic field can be interpreted very well in terms of high temperature spin dynamics dominated by a long time persistence of the decay of the two-spin correlation function due to the conservation of the total spin value for isotropic Heisenberg chains. The high temperature spin dynamics are also investigated in Heisenberg AFM molecular rings. In both Cr{sub 8} closed ring and in Cr{sub 7}Cd and Cr{sub 8}Zn open rings, i.e., model systems for a finite spin segment, an enhancement of the low frequency spectral density is found consistent with spin diffusion but the high cut-off frequency due to intermolecular anisotropic interactions prevents a detailed analysis of the spin diffusion regime.

  18. Nuclear matter properties in the non-linear Walecka model at finite temperature with interaction between the σ - ω mesons

    SciTech Connect

    Costa, R. S.; Cortes, M. R.; Nunes, D. R.; Batista, A. S. A.

    2014-11-11

    In this work in contrast to the usual Walecka model [1] we include the interaction between the σ – ω mesons [2,3] with the aim of studying the nuclear matter properties in the relativistic mean-field theory in the regime of high temperatures. Therefore in our work we use the non-linear Walecka model. We investigate whether the phase transition characteristic of other models without these interactions vanishes for a given value of chemical potential μ and baryon density ρ{sub N}.

  19. Quasi-linear theory of electron density and temperature fluctuations with application to MHD generators and MPD arc thrusters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, M.

    1972-01-01

    Fluctuations in electron density and temperature coupled through Ohm's law are studied for an ionizable medium. The nonlinear effects are considered in the limit of a third order quasi-linear treatment. Equations are derived for the amplitude of the fluctuation. Conditions under which a steady state can exist in the presence of the fluctuation are examined and effective transport properties are determined. A comparison is made to previously considered second order theory. The effect of third order terms indicates the possibility of fluctuations existing in regions predicted stable by previous analysis.

  20. Quasi-linear theory of electron density and temperature fluctuations with application to MHD generators and MPD arc thrusters.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, J. M.

    1972-01-01

    Fluctuations in electron density and temperature coupled through Ohm's law are studied for an ionizable medium. The nonlinear effects are considered in the limit of a third order quasi-linear treatment. Equations are derived for the amplitude of the fluctuation. Conditions under which a steady state can exist in the presence of the fluctuation are examined and effective transport properties are determined. A comparison is made to previously considered second order theory. The effect of third order terms indicates the possibility of fluctuations existing in regions predicted stable by previous analysis.

  1. Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

    2016-07-01

    Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season (kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics (α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test (α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

  2. Trends of mean and extreme temperature indices since 1874 at low-elevation sites in the southern Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brugnara, Yuri; Auchmann, Renate; Brönnimann, Stefan; Bozzo, Alessio; Berro, Daniele Cat; Mercalli, Luca

    2016-04-01

    We describe the recovery of three daily meteorological records for the southern Alps (Domodossola, Riva del Garda, and Rovereto), all starting in the second half of the nineteenth century. We use these new data, along with additional records, to study regional changes in the mean temperature and extreme indices of heat waves and cold spells frequency and duration over the period 1874-2015. The records are homogenized using subdaily cloud cover observations as a constraint for the statistical model, an approach that has never been applied before in the literature. A case study based on a record of parallel observations between a traditional meteorological window and a modern screen shows that the use of cloud cover can reduce the root-mean-square error of the homogenization by up to 30% in comparison to an unaided statistical correction. We find that mean temperature in the southern Alps has increased by 1.4°C per century over the analyzed period, with larger increases in daily minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures. The number of hot days in summer has more than tripled, and a similar increase is observed in duration of heat waves. Cold days in winter have dropped at a similar rate. These trends are mainly caused by climate change over the last few decades.

  3. Temperature effect on the build-up of exponentially growing polyelectrolyte multilayers. An exponential-to-linear transition point.

    PubMed

    Vikulina, Anna S; Anissimov, Yuri G; Singh, Prateek; Prokopović, Vladimir Z; Uhlig, Katja; Jaeger, Magnus S; von Klitzing, Regine; Duschl, Claus; Volodkin, Dmitry

    2016-03-21

    In this study, the effect of temperature on the build-up of exponentially growing polyelectrolyte multilayer films was investigated. It aims at understanding the multilayer growth mechanism as crucially important for the fabrication of tailor-made multilayer films. Model poly(L-lysine)/hyaluronic acid (PLL/HA) multilayers were assembled in the temperature range of 25-85 °C by layer-by-layer deposition using a dipping method. The film growth switches from the exponential to the linear regime at the transition point as a result of limited polymer diffusion into the film. With the increase of the build-up temperature the film growth rate is enhanced in both regimes; the position of the transition point shifts to a higher number of deposition steps confirming the diffusion-mediated growth mechanism. Not only the faster polymer diffusion into the film but also more porous/permeable film structure are responsible for faster film growth at higher preparation temperature. The latter mechanism is assumed from analysis of the film growth rate upon switching of the preparation temperature during the film growth. Interestingly, the as-prepared films are equilibrated and remain intact (no swelling or shrinking) during temperature variation in the range of 25-45 °C. The average activation energy for complexation between PLL and HA in the multilayers calculated from the Arrhenius plot has been found to be about 0.3 kJ mol(-1) for monomers of PLL. Finally, the following processes known to be dependent on temperature are discussed with respect to the multilayer growth: (i) polymer diffusion, (ii) polymer conformational changes, and (iii) inter-polymer interactions. PMID:26911320

  4. THE ROLE OF COLD-AIR DRAINAGE IN EXPLAINING SPATIAL PATTERNS OF TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pepin, N. C.; Daly, C.; Lundquist, J. D.

    2009-12-01

    Understanding spatial patterns of climate change in the western U.S. is of fundamental importance to understanding impacts on the landscape. Because much of the western U.S. is topographically complex, and shows distinct microclimates, there is no reason therefore to expect past or future patterns of change to be spatially smooth. In particular cold air drainage in mountain valleys causes decoupling of the temperature regime in many locations from the free atmosphere. This is a major feature of the western U.S. climate which is often dominated by relatively cloud-free high pressure conditions. We investigate here whether this decoupling has seen significant temporal change in the past, and the implications of such a change for patterns of warming observed across the western U.S. We analyse temperature trends from 494 long-term weather stations in the western U.S. for the period 1948-2006, from the GHCNv2 dataset, supplemented by additional COOP stations. There is a range of topographic incision and elevation in the sites chosen. At each location we derive monthly synoptic indices representative of the degree of anticyclonicity vs cyclonicity using NCEP/NCAR 700 mb reanalysis pressure fields. The number of anticyclonic days minus the number of cyclonic days (A-C) is strongly related to temperature anomalies at exposed convex sites and hilltops where the free atmosphere controls the temperature signal. At cold air drainage sites which tend to be in topographic concavities the relationship is much weaker. We use the gradient of the A-C/temperature relationship to represent a coupling index which is high at exposed free-air locations and low at cold-air drainage locations. There are clear relationships between the past rate of warming and this coupling index across the western U.S. but these are seasonally determined. On a mean annual basis there are no strong relationships between temperature trend magnitude, elevation, the degree of topographic incision or the

  5. Annual and seasonal analysis of temperature and precipitation in Andorra (Pyrenees) from 1934 to 2008: quality check, homogenization and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esteban, Pere; Prohom, Marc; Aguilar, Enric; Mestre, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of temperature and precipitation change and variability in high elevations is a difficult issue due to the lack of long term climatic series in those environments. Nonetheless, it is important to evaluate how much high elevations follow the same climate evolution than low lying sites. In this work, using daily data from three Andorran weather stations (maintained by the power company Forces Elèctriques d'Andorra, FEDA), climate trends of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation were obtained for the period 1934-2008. The series are complete (99.9%) and are located in a mountainous area ranging from 1110 m to 1600 m asl. As a previous step to the analysis, data rescue, quality control and homogeneity tests were applied to the daily data. For quality control, several procedures were applied to identify and flag suspicious or erroneous data: duplicated days, outliers, excessive differences between consecutive days, flat line checking, days with maximum temperature lower that minimum temperature, and rounding analysis. All the station sites were visited to gather the available metadata. Concerning homogeneity, a homogeneous climate time series is defined as one where variations are caused only by variations in climate and not to non-climatic factors (i.e., changes in site location, instruments, station environment…). As a result, homogeneity of the series was inspected from several methodologies that have been used in a complementary and independent way in order to attain solid results: C3-SNHT (with software developed under the Spanish Government Grant CGL2007-65546-C03-02), and Caussinus-Mestre (C-M) approaches. In both cases, tests were applied to mean annual temperature and precipitation series, using Catalan and French series as references (provided respectively by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and Météo-France, in the framework of the Action COST-ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated

  6. Calculating linear-response functions for finite temperatures on the basis of the alloy analogy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebert, H.; Mankovsky, S.; Chadova, K.; Polesya, S.; Minár, J.; Ködderitzsch, D.

    2015-04-01

    A scheme is presented that is based on the alloy analogy model and allows one to account for thermal lattice vibrations as well as spin fluctuations when calculating response quantities in solids. Various models to deal with spin fluctuations are discussed concerning their impact on the resulting temperature-dependent magnetic moment, longitudinal conductivity, and Gilbert damping parameter. It is demonstrated that, by using the Monte Carlo (MC) spin configuration as input, the alloy analogy model is capable of reproducing the results of MC simulations on the average magnetic moment within all spin fluctuation models under discussion. On the other hand, the response quantities are much more sensitive to the spin fluctuation model. Separate calculations accounting for the thermal effect due to either lattice vibrations or spin fluctuations show that they give comparable contributions to the electrical conductivity and Gilbert damping. However, comparison to results accounting for both thermal effects demonstrates violation of Matthiessen's rule, showing the nonadditive effect of lattice vibrations and spin fluctuations. The results obtained for bcc Fe and fcc Ni are compared with the experimental data, showing rather good agreement for the temperature-dependent electrical conductivity and the Gilbert damping parameter.

  7. Comment on "Methodology and results of calculating Central California surface temperature trends: evidence of human-induced climate change?" by Christy et al. (2006)

    SciTech Connect

    Bonfils, C; Duffy, P; Lobell, D

    2006-03-28

    Understanding the causes of observed regional temperature trends is essential to projecting the human influences on climate, and the societal impacts of these influences. In their recent study, Christy et al. (2006, hereinafter CRNG06) hypothesized that the presence of irrigated soils is responsible for rapid warming of summer nights occurring in California's Central Valley over the last century (1910-2003), an assumption that rules out any significant effect due to increased greenhouse gases, urbanization, or other factors in this region. We question this interpretation, which is based on an apparent contrast in summer nighttime temperature trends between the San Joaquin Valley ({approx} +0.3 {+-} 0.1 C/decade) and the adjacent western slopes of the Sierra Nevada (-0.25 {+-} 0.15 C/decade), as well as the amplitude, sign and uncertainty of the Sierra nighttime temperature trend itself. We, however, do not dispute the finding of other Sierra and Valley trends. Regarding the veracity of the apparent Sierra nighttime temperature trend, CRNG06 generated the Valley and Sierra time-series using a meticulous procedure that eliminates discontinuities and isolates homogeneous segments in temperature records from 41 weather stations. This procedure yields an apparent cooling of about -0.25 {+-} 0.15 C/decade in the Sierra region. However, because removal of one of the 137 Sierra segments, from the most elevated site (Huntington Lake, 2140m), causes an increase in nighttime temperature trend as large as the trend itself (of +0.25 C/decade, CH06), and leads to a zero trend, the apparent cooling of summer nights in the Sierra regions seems, in fact, largely uncertain.

  8. A Temperature-Dependent, Linearly Interpolable, Tabulated Cross Section Library Based on ENDF/B-VII.0.

    2008-12-03

    Version 00 As distributed, the ENDF/B-VII.0 data includes cross sections represented in the form of a combination of resonance parameters and/or tabulated energy dependent cross sections, nominally at 0 Kelvin temperature. For use in our applications the ENDF/B-VII.0 library has been processed into cross sections at eight neutron reactor like temperatures, between 0 and 2100 Kelvin, in steps of 300 Kelvin. It has also been processed to five astrophysics like temperatures: 1, 10, 100 eV,more » 1 and 10 keV. For reference purposes, 300 Kelvin is approximately 1/40 eV, so that 1 eV is approximately 12,000 Kelvin. At each temperature the cross sections are tabulated and linearly interpolable in energy. CCC-638/TART2005 is recommended for use with these data. Codes within TART can be used to display these data or to run calculations using these data.« less

  9. A Temperature-Dependent, Linearly Interpolable, Tabulated Cross Section Library Based on released ENDF/B-VII.0.

    2007-06-15

    Version 00 As distributed, the ENDF/B-VII.0 data includes cross sections represented in the form of a combination of resonance parameters and/or tabulated energy dependent cross sections, nominally at 0 Kelvin temperature. For use in our applications the ENDF/B-VII.0 library has been processed into cross sections at eight neutron reactor like temperatures, between 0 and 2100 Kelvin, in steps of 300 Kelvin. It has also been processed to five astrophysics like temperatures: 1, 10, 100 eV,more » 1 and 10 keV. For reference purposes, 300 Kelvin is approximately 1/40 eV, so that 1 eV is approximately 12,000 Kelvin. At each temperature the cross sections are tabulated and linearly interpolable in energy. CCC-638/TART2005 is recommended for use with these data. Codes within TART can be used to display these data or to run calculations using these data.« less

  10. Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.

    2007-11-01

    We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 2°×2° (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 2°×2° bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST-winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring

  11. Magnetism and variable temperature and pressure crystal structures of a linear oligonuclear cobalt bis-semiquinonate.

    PubMed

    Overgaard, Jacob; Møller, Louise H; Borup, Mette A; Tricoire, Maxime; Walsh, James P S; Diehl, Marcel; Rentschler, Eva

    2016-08-01

    The crystal structure of the first oligomeric cobalt dioxolene complex, Co3(3,5-DBSQ)2((t)BuCOO)4(NEt3)2, 1, where DBSQ is 3,5-di-tert-butyl-semiquinonate, has been studied at various temperatures between 20 and 200 K. Despite cobalt-dioxolene complexes being generally known for their extensive ability to exhibit valence tautomerism (VT), we show here that the molecular geometry of compound 1 is essentially unchanged over the full temperature range, indicating the complete absence of electron transfer between ligand and metal. Magnetic susceptibility measurements clearly support the lack of VT between 8 and 300 K. The crystal structure is also determined at elevated pressures in the range from 0 to 2.5 GPa. The response of the crystal structure is surprisingly dependent on the dynamics of pressurisation: following rapid pressurization to 2 GPa, a structural phase transition occurs; yet, this is absent when the pressure is increased incrementally to 2.6 GPa. In the new high pressure phase, Z' is 2 and one of the two molecules displays changes in the coordination of one bridging carboxylate from μ2:κO:κO' to μ2:κ(2)O,O':κO', while the other molecule remains unchanged. Despite the significant changes to the molecular connectivity, analysis of the crystal structures shows that the phase transition leaves the spin and oxidation states of the molecules unaltered. Intermolecular interactions in the high pressure crystal structures have been analysed using Hirshfeld surfaces but they cannot explain the origin of the phase transition. The lack of VT in this first oligomeric Co-dioxolene complex is speculated to be due to the coordination geometry of the terminal Co-atoms, which are trigonal bipyramidally coordinated, different from the more common octahedral coordination. The energy that is gained by a hs-to-ls change in Oh is equal to Δ, while in the case of the trigonal bipyramidal (C3v), the energy gain is equal to the splitting between d(z(2)) and degenerate d

  12. Magnetism and variable temperature and pressure crystal structures of a linear oligonuclear cobalt bis-semiquinonate.

    PubMed

    Overgaard, Jacob; Møller, Louise H; Borup, Mette A; Tricoire, Maxime; Walsh, James P S; Diehl, Marcel; Rentschler, Eva

    2016-08-01

    The crystal structure of the first oligomeric cobalt dioxolene complex, Co3(3,5-DBSQ)2((t)BuCOO)4(NEt3)2, 1, where DBSQ is 3,5-di-tert-butyl-semiquinonate, has been studied at various temperatures between 20 and 200 K. Despite cobalt-dioxolene complexes being generally known for their extensive ability to exhibit valence tautomerism (VT), we show here that the molecular geometry of compound 1 is essentially unchanged over the full temperature range, indicating the complete absence of electron transfer between ligand and metal. Magnetic susceptibility measurements clearly support the lack of VT between 8 and 300 K. The crystal structure is also determined at elevated pressures in the range from 0 to 2.5 GPa. The response of the crystal structure is surprisingly dependent on the dynamics of pressurisation: following rapid pressurization to 2 GPa, a structural phase transition occurs; yet, this is absent when the pressure is increased incrementally to 2.6 GPa. In the new high pressure phase, Z' is 2 and one of the two molecules displays changes in the coordination of one bridging carboxylate from μ2:κO:κO' to μ2:κ(2)O,O':κO', while the other molecule remains unchanged. Despite the significant changes to the molecular connectivity, analysis of the crystal structures shows that the phase transition leaves the spin and oxidation states of the molecules unaltered. Intermolecular interactions in the high pressure crystal structures have been analysed using Hirshfeld surfaces but they cannot explain the origin of the phase transition. The lack of VT in this first oligomeric Co-dioxolene complex is speculated to be due to the coordination geometry of the terminal Co-atoms, which are trigonal bipyramidally coordinated, different from the more common octahedral coordination. The energy that is gained by a hs-to-ls change in Oh is equal to Δ, while in the case of the trigonal bipyramidal (C3v), the energy gain is equal to the splitting between d(z(2)) and degenerate d

  13. Time Trends and Predictors of Abnormal Postoperative Body Temperature in Infants Transported to the Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Lyden, Angela K.; Benedict, Wendy L.; Ramachandran, Satya Krishna

    2016-01-01

    Background. Despite increasing adoption of active warming methods over the recent years, little is known about the effectiveness of these interventions on the occurrence of abnormal postoperative temperatures in sick infants. Methods. Preoperative and postoperative temperature readings, patient characteristics, and procedural factors of critically ill infants at a single institution were retrieved retrospectively from June 2006 until May 2014. The primary endpoints were the incidence and trend of postoperative hypothermia and hyperthermia on arrival at the intensive care units. Univariate and adjusted analyses were performed to identify factors independently associated with abnormal postoperative temperatures. Results. 2,350 cases were included. 82% were normothermic postoperatively, while hypothermia and hyperthermia each occurred in 9% of cases. During the study period, hypothermia decreased from 24% to 2% (p < 0.0001) while hyperthermia remained unchanged (13% in 2006, 8% in 2014, p = 0.357). Factors independently associated with hypothermia were higher ASA status (p = 0.02), lack of intraoperative convective warming (p < 0.001) and procedure date before 2010 (p < 0.001). Independent associations for postoperative hyperthermia included lower body weight (p = 0.01) and procedure date before 2010 (p < 0.001). Conclusions. We report an increase in postoperative normothermia rates in critically ill infants from 2006 until 2014. Careful monitoring to avoid overcorrection and hyperthermia is recommended. PMID:27777585

  14. Trends in persistent seasonal-scale atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for precipitation and temperature extremes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swain, D. L.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2015-12-01

    Long-lived anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns are often associated with surface weather extremes. This is particularly true from a hydroclimatic perspective in regions that have well-defined "wet seasons," where atmospheric anomalies that persist on a seasonal scale can lead to drought or (conversely) increase the risk of flood. Recent evidence suggests that both natural variability and global warming may be responsible for spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric conditions over the past several decades. In this investigation, we assess observed trends in cool-season (Oct-May) circulation patterns over the northeastern Pacific Ocean which have historically been associated with precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We find that the occurrence of certain extreme seasonal-scale atmospheric configurations has changed substantially over the 1948-2015 period, and also that there has been a trend towards amplification of the cool-season mean state in this region. Notably, patterns similar to the persistent anticyclone associated with the extremely warm and dry conditions experienced during the ongoing 2012-2015 California drought occur more frequently in the second half of the observed record. This finding highlights the importance of examining changes in extreme and/or persistent atmospheric circulation configurations, which may exhibit different responses to natural and anthropogenic forcings than the mean state.

  15. Temperature trends in desert cities: how vegetation and urbanization affect the urban heat island dynamics in hyper-arid climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marpu, P. R.; Lazzarini, M.; Molini, A.; Ghedira, H.

    2013-12-01

    Urban areas represent a unique micro-climatic system, mainly characterized by scarcity of vegetation and ground moisture, an albedo strictly dependent on building materials and urban forms, high heat capacity, elevated pollutants emissions, anthropogenic heat production, and a characteristic boundary layer dynamics. For obvious historical reasons, the first to be addressed in the literature were the effects of urbanization on the local microclimate of temperate regions, where most of the urban development took place in the last centuries. Here micro-climatic characteristics all contribute to the warming of urban areas, also known as 'urban heat island' effect, and are expected to crucially impact future energy and water consumption, air quality, and human health. However, rapidly increasing urbanization rates in arid and hyper-arid developing countries could soon require more attention towards studying the effects of urban development on arid climates, which remained mainly unexplored till now. In this talk we investigate the climatology of urban heat islands in seven highly urbanized desert cities based on day and night temporal trends of land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) acquired using MODIS satellite during 2000-2012. Urban and rural areas are distinguished by analyzing the high-resolution temporal variability and averaged monthly values of LST, NDVI and Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) for all the seven cities and adjacent sub-urban areas. Different thermal behaviors were observed at the selected sites, also including temperature mitigation and inverse urban heat island, and are here discussed together with detailed analysis of the corresponding trends.

  16. Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

    PubMed Central

    Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

    2012-01-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

  17. Temperature-Dependent, Linearly Interpolable, Tabulated Cross Section Library Based on ENDF/B-VI, Release 8.

    2005-02-21

    Version 00 As distributed, the original evaluated data include cross sections represented in the form of a combination of resonance parameters and/or tabulated energy dependent cross sections, nominally at 0 Kelvin temperature. For use in applications this library has been processed into the form of temperature dependent cross sections at eight neutron reactor like temperatures, between 0 and 2100 Kelvin, in steps of 300 Kelvin. It has also been processed to five astrophysics like temperatures,more » 1, 10, 100 eV, 1 and 10 keV. For reference purposes, 300 Kelvin is approximately 1/40 eV, so that 1 eV is approximately 12,000 Kelvin. At each temperature the cross sections are tabulated and linearly interpolable in energy. POINT2004 contains all of the evaluations in the ENDF/B-VI general purpose library, which contains evaluations for 328 materials (isotopes or naturally occurring elemental mixtures of isotopes). No special purpose ENDF/B-VI libraries, such as fission products, thermal scattering, or photon interaction data are included. The majority of these evaluations are complete, in the sense that they include all cross sections over the energy range 10-5 eV to at least 20 MeV. However, the following are only partial evaluations that either contain only single reactions and no total cross section (Mg24, K41, Ti46, Ti47, Ti48, Ti50 and Ni59), or do not include energy dependent cross sections above the resonance region (Ar40, Mo92, Mo98, Mo100, In115, Sn120, Sn122 and Sn124). The CCC-638/TART20002 code package is recommended for use with these data. Codes within TART can be used to display these data or to run calculations using these data.« less

  18. Long-term Trends in Mesospheric Temperatures at high and low latitudes derived from OH airglow spectra of Kiruna FTS and Sloan Digital Sky Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Yongha; Kim, Jeong-Han; Kim, Gawon; Lee, Youngsun

    2016-07-01

    We have analyzed mesospheric temperatures from OH airglow measurements with Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) in the period of 2003 - 2012 at Kiruna (67.9°N, 21.1°E). We also derived mesospheric temperatures from rotational emission lines of the OH airglow (8-3) band in the sky spectra of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) in the period of 2000 - 2014. The main objective of SDSS is to make a detailed 3-dimensional map of the universe by observing images and spectra of various celestial objects at Apache Point Observatory (APO, 32°N 105°W). From both temperature sets we first estimated the solar responses of mesospheric temperatures to F10.7 variation and the seasonal variation of mesospheric temperatures. After removing the solar response, we found the long-term mesospheric temperature trends of -4 ˜-6.6 K/decade at Kiruna and -0.02 ± 0.7 K/decade at Apache Point. Our results indicate significant cooling trend at the high latitude but very little or no cooling at the low latitude. Although both trends are comparable and consistent with other studies, the temperature trend from SDSS spectra should be regarded as unique contribution to global monitoring of climate change because the SDSS project is completely independent of climate studies.

  19. Future Trends in Extreme Temperatures over the Western U.S.: The Influence of Terrain and Coastlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, M.

    2015-12-01

    A number of studies have suggested that heat waves will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration under anthropogenic global warming. However, these trends are less understood in regions of complex terrain or in coastal regions where temperature gradients are relatively larger and mesoscale features are important. Thus it is important to understand the regional impacts of terrain and land/water contrasts on heat extremes in a warming world, and identify changes in the conditions that drive such extremes. The northwest U.S. is a region with such surface complexity, where regional heat extremes arise from synoptic/mesoscale interactions between the large-scale flow and local topography This talk will analyze changes to the synoptic and mesoscale conditions associated with heat extremes over the northwest U.S. by utilizing CMIP5 global climate model simulations, and dynamically downscaled regional climate models. An analysis of changes in mid- to low-level tropospheric temperature, offshore/onshore flow, soil moisture, precipitation, and cloud fraction are described, as well as how these changes interact with regional terrain and land/water contrasts to alter the temperature distributions over the region. CMIP5 models suggest that low-level zonal wind distributions over the northwest U.S. become narrower, leading to fewer days with strong offshore flow. Soil moisture is projected to decline over the region due to reductions in clouds and precipitation, as well as general warming. Historical and future regional temperature distributions will be described, and it will be shown that even though climate models predict increases in heat extremes for western Oregon and Washington, these increases are far fewer compared to inland areas. The variance over most inland locations increases, with the exception of the northwest U.S., where variance doesn't change. The importance of regional terrain and land/water contrasts in explaining these changes will be described.

  20. Temperature trend estimates in the troposphere over Antarctica by use of analysis of the GPS radio occultation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Kefei; Fu, Erjiang; Wang, Chuan-Sheng; Liou, Yuei-An; Pavelyev, Alexander; Kuleshov, Yuriy

    2010-05-01

    Analyses of the Antarctic climate change during recent decades have demonstrated a positive continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend. Strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula in contrast to slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in the last five decades has been emphasised [Turner et al. 2005]. Recently, it has been reported that significant warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsular to cover most of West Antarctica with a warming rate exceeding 0.1°C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring [Steig et al. 2009]. Assessments of atmospheric temperature trends have also found significant warming of the Antarctic winter troposphere. Analysing data from nine Antarctic radiosonde stations, it has been shown that regional midtropospheric temperatures have increased at a statistically significant rate of 0.5 to 0.7°C per decade over the past three decades - a major warming of the Antarctic winter troposphere that is larger than any previously identified regional tropospheric warming on Earth [Turner et al. 2006]. Analysis of climate change over the Polar Regions is particularly challenging due to the scarcity of observations from a small number of sparsely located weather stations. Obviously, data obtained by various satellite remote sensing techniques are invaluable in order to obtain spatially-complete distributions of near-surface and atmospheric temperature trends in high latitudes. For example, using the climate quality records of satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) observations, it has been shown that significant tropospheric warming prevails during Antarctic winters and springs, with the largest winter tropospheric warming of about 0.6°C per decade for 1979-2005 between 120°W and 180°W [Johanson and Fu 2007]. Recently, a new atmospheric observation technique, GPS radio occultation (RO), has been developed for acquiring the Earth's atmospheric

  1. Linear Stability Analysis of Convective Flow in a Confined Layer of Volatile Liquid Driven by a Horizontal Temperature Gradient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grigoriev, Roman; Qin, Tongran

    2015-11-01

    Convection in layers of nonvolatile liquids with a free surface driven by a horizontal temperature gradient is a fairly well-studies problem. It is described by several nondimensional parameters: the Prandtl number Pr , the Marangoni number Ma , and the Rayleigh number Ra (or the dynamic Bond number BoD = Ra / Ma). Previous studies mostly focused on characterizing the critical Ma and the nature of the convective pattern (e.g., stationary rolls or traveling waves) as a function of Pr and BoD . To understand convection in volatile liquids one also has to consider the transport of heat and mass in the gas layer above the liquid. In confined geometries, the composition of the gas phase plays a very important role, since air tends to suppress phase change at the interface and thereby the amount of latent heat released or absorbed at the interface as a result of evaporation or condensation. Linear stability analysis of the problem based on a two-sided model shows that, for BoD = O (1) , both the critical Ma and the critical wave length of the pattern increase as the average concentration of air decreases. The predictions of linear stability analysis are found to be in good agreement with previous experimental and numerical studies of both nonvolatile and volatile fluids.

  2. Non-linear response of two-dimensional electron systems at low temperatures to electric and magnetic fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Kalmanovitz, Natalia

    2009-12-01

    The nonlinear behavior of low-dimensional electron systems has attracted a great deal of attention for its fundamental interest as well as for potentially important applications in nanoelectronics. This work focuses on experimental results related to the nonlinear behavior of two dimensional electron systems. We first observed the non-linear zero-differential resistance state (ZDRS) that occurs for highly mobile two dimensional electron systems in response to a dc bias in the presence of a strong magnetic field applied perpendicular to the electron plane is suppressed. We found that it disappears gradually as the magnetic field is tilted away from the perpendicular at fixed filling factor. Good agreement is found with a model that considers the effect of the Zeeman splitting of Landau levels enhanced by the in-plane component of the magnetic field. Furthermore, we observed that when an electric field is applied to conductors, it heats electric charge carriers. It is demonstrated that an electric field applied to a conductor with a discrete electron spectrum produces a non-equilibrium electron distribution, which cannot be described by temperature. Such electron distribution changes significantly the conductivity of the electrons in a magnetic field, and forces them into a state with a zero differential resistance. Most importantly, the results demonstrate that in general, the effective overheating in the systems with discrete spectrum is significantly stronger than the one in systems with continuous and homogeneous distribution of the energy levels at the same input power. In the last part we observed non-linear behavior in a silicon MOSFET. Measurements of the rectification of microwave radiation at the boundary between two-dimensional electron systems separated by a narrow gap on a silicon surface for different temperatures, electron densities and microwave power, were performed. A theory is proposed that attributes the rectification to the thermoelectric

  3. Attributing surface temperature trends in the presence of natural variability: progress regarding the warming hiatus and unresolved challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smoliak, B. V.; Hartmann, D. L.; Booth, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    That the observed amplitude of year-to-year climate variations are sometimes large relative to trends on time scales less than 30 years poses an ongoing challenge for detection and attribution studies, as well as the public perception of climate change. For example, despite the long term warming of the climate system, observations indicate that global average surface temperature has not risen appreciably since about 1998, when a major El Niño event occurred in the tropical Pacific. This post-1998 'warming hiatus' is well documented on the basis of global-mean, annual-mean surface temperature, but it remains poorly understood at finer spatial and temporal scales and its existence has not been unambiguously attributed to natural or anthropogenic forcings. Using observations we confirm that the warming hiatus is primarily associated with the boreal cold season. On the basis of a set of empirically-derived adjustments accounting for the influence of three known sources of natural variability, we demonstrate that the hiatus is largely a reflection of internal variability associated with spontaneously generated fluctuations of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and extratropical atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Results are discussed in terms of their significance at spatial scales ranging from the entire globe down to the local scale, distinguishing between land and ocean and cold season and warm season.

  4. Trends and other statistical characteristics of a temperature-humidity index (ITU) in the southern part of Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manea, A.; Boroneant, C.; Ralita, I.; Dumitrescu, Al.

    2009-04-01

    During the last decades a growing number of heat waves have been observed in Romania during summer. The current index used in the National Meteorological Administration in Bucharest for quantifying human comfort is a temperature-humidity index (ITU). The heat warning is issued by the National Forecasting Center in two stages: warning stage 1 (alert stage) when the ITU value is between 66 and 79 units and, warning stage 2 (risk stage) when the ITU value is greater than 80 units. This paper presents the trends of the number of days with warnings (alert and risk, separately) at 15 stations located in the south and south - east of Romania's territory during summer for the period 1961-2007. Hourly data of air temperature and relative humidity for the interval 12-18 local time have been used for the study. The frequency of warnings during that hourly interval is assessed for each month (June, July and August) based on ITU thresholds. Finally, the spatial distribution of the warning frequencies is drawn as useful information for tourism and other environmental activities.

  5. A Temperature-Dependent, Linearly Interpolable, Tabulated Cross Section Library Based on ENDF/B-VI, Release 7.

    2001-06-13

    Version 00 As distributed, the original evaluated data include cross sections represented in the form of a combination of resonance parameters and/or tabulated energy dependent cross sections, nominally at 0 Kelvin temperature. For use in applications, these ENDF/B-VI, Release 7 data were processed into the form of temperature dependent cross sections at eight temperatures between 0 and 2100 Kelvin, in steps of 300 Kelvin. At each temperature the cross sections are tabulated and linearly interpolablemore » in energy. POINT2000 contains all of the evaluations in the ENDF/B-VI general purpose library, which contains evaluations for 324 materials (isotopes or naturally occurring elemental mixtures of isotopes). No special purpose ENDF/B-VI libraries, such as fission products, thermal scattering, photon interaction data are included. The majority of these evaluations are complete, in the sense that they include all cross sections over the energy range 10-5 eV to at least 20 MeV. However, the following are only partial evaluations that either only contain single reactions and no total cross section (Mg24, K41, Ti46, Ti47, Ti48, Ti50 and Ni59), or do not include energy dependent cross sections above the resonance region (Ar40, Mo92, Mo98, Mo100, In115, Sn120, Sn122 and Sn124). The CCC-638/TART96 code package will soon be updated to TART2000, which is recommended for use with these data. Codes within TART2000 can be used to display these data or to run calculations using these data.« less

  6. Distinguishing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases on Arctic stratospheric ozone and temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieder, Harald E.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Solomon, Susan

    2014-04-01

    Whether stratospheric cooling due to increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG) could increase the depletion of Arctic stratospheric ozone has been the subject of scientific and public attention for decades. Here we provide evidence that changes in the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODS), not WMGHG, have been the primary driver of observed Arctic lower stratospheric trends in both ozone and temperature. We do so by analyzing polar cap ozone and temperature trends in reanalysis data: these clearly suggest that both trends are mainly driven by ODS in the lower stratosphere. This observation-based finding is supported by results from a stratosphere-resolving chemistry-climate model driven with time-varying ODS and WMGHG, specified in isolation and in combination. Taken together, these results provide strong evidence that ODS are the main driver of changes in the Arctic lower stratospheric temperatures and ozone, whereas WMGHG are the primary driver of changes in the upper stratosphere.

  7. Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinco, Thelma A.; de Guzman, Rosalina G.; Hilario, Flaviana D.; Wilson, David M.

    2014-08-01

    Observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature data from 34 synoptic weather stations in the Philippines for the period 1951-2010 were subjected to trend analysis which revealed an overall warming tendency compared to the normal mean values for the period 1961-1990. This warming trend can be observed in the annual mean temperatures, daily minimum mean temperatures and to a lesser extent, daily maximum mean temperatures. Precipitation and temperature extremes for the period 1951-2010 were also analysed relative to the mean 1961-1990 baseline values. Some stations (Cotabato, Iloilo, Laoag and Tacloban,) show increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall events which are significant at the 95% level with none of the stations showing decreasing trends. The frequency of daily temperature maximum above the 99th percentile (hot days) and nights at the 1st percentile (cold nights) suggests that both days and nights in particular are becoming warmer. Such indicators of a warming trend and increase in extreme events in the Philippines are discussed in the context of similar national, regional (Asia Pacific) and global studies. The relevance of such empirically based climatology studies, particularly for nations such as the Philippines which are increasingly vulnerable to the multiple impacts of global climate change, is also considered.

  8. Monitoring and trend mapping of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS data: a case study of Mumbai coast.

    PubMed

    Azmi, Samee; Agarwadkar, Yogesh; Bhattacharya, Mohor; Apte, Mugdha; Inamdar, Arun B

    2015-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in monitoring ecosystem health in the marine and coastal environment. Coastal ecosystem is largely dependent on ambient temperature and temperature fronts for marine/coastal habitat and its sustainability. Hence, thermal pollution is seen as a severe threat for ecological health of coastal waters across the world. Mumbai is one of the largest metropolises of the world and faces severe domestic and industrial effluent disposal problem, of which thermal pollution is a major issue with policy-makers and environmental stakeholders. This study attempts to understand the long-term SST variation in the coastal waters off Mumbai, on the western coast of India, and to identify thermal pollution zones. Analysis of SST trends in the near-coastal waters for the pre- and post-monsoon seasons from the year 2004 to the year 2010 has been carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Thermal Infra-red (TIR) bands. SST is calculated with the help of bands 31 and 32 using split window method. Several statistical operations were then applied to find the seasonal averages in SST and the standard deviation of SST in the study area. Maximum variation in SST was found within a perpendicular distance of 5 km from the shoreline during the study period. Also, a warm water mass was found to form consistently off coast during the winter months. Several anthropogenic sources of thermal pollution could be identified which were found to impact various locations along the coast. PMID:25743152

  9. Monitoring and trend mapping of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS data: a case study of Mumbai coast.

    PubMed

    Azmi, Samee; Agarwadkar, Yogesh; Bhattacharya, Mohor; Apte, Mugdha; Inamdar, Arun B

    2015-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in monitoring ecosystem health in the marine and coastal environment. Coastal ecosystem is largely dependent on ambient temperature and temperature fronts for marine/coastal habitat and its sustainability. Hence, thermal pollution is seen as a severe threat for ecological health of coastal waters across the world. Mumbai is one of the largest metropolises of the world and faces severe domestic and industrial effluent disposal problem, of which thermal pollution is a major issue with policy-makers and environmental stakeholders. This study attempts to understand the long-term SST variation in the coastal waters off Mumbai, on the western coast of India, and to identify thermal pollution zones. Analysis of SST trends in the near-coastal waters for the pre- and post-monsoon seasons from the year 2004 to the year 2010 has been carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Thermal Infra-red (TIR) bands. SST is calculated with the help of bands 31 and 32 using split window method. Several statistical operations were then applied to find the seasonal averages in SST and the standard deviation of SST in the study area. Maximum variation in SST was found within a perpendicular distance of 5 km from the shoreline during the study period. Also, a warm water mass was found to form consistently off coast during the winter months. Several anthropogenic sources of thermal pollution could be identified which were found to impact various locations along the coast.

  10. COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND POLARIZATION AND TEMPERATURE POWER SPECTRA ESTIMATION USING LINEAR COMBINATION OF WMAP 5 YEAR MAPS

    SciTech Connect

    Samal, Pramoda Kumar; Jain, Pankaj; Saha, Rajib; Prunet, Simon; Souradeep, Tarun

    2010-05-01

    We estimate cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization and temperature power spectra using Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 5 year foreground contaminated maps. The power spectrum is estimated by using a model-independent method, which does not utilize directly the diffuse foreground templates nor the detector noise model. The method essentially consists of two steps: (1) removal of diffuse foregrounds contamination by making linear combination of individual maps in harmonic space and (2) cross-correlation of foreground cleaned maps to minimize detector noise bias. For the temperature power spectrum we also estimate and subtract residual unresolved point source contamination in the cross-power spectrum using the point source model provided by the WMAP science team. Our TT, TE, and EE power spectra are in good agreement with the published results of the WMAP science team. We perform detailed numerical simulations to test for bias in our procedure. We find that the bias is small in almost all cases. A negative bias at low l in TT power spectrum has been pointed out in an earlier publication. We find that the bias-corrected quadrupole power (l(l + 1)C{sub l} /2{pi}) is 532 {mu}K{sup 2}, approximately 2.5 times the estimate (213.4 {mu}K{sup 2}) made by the WMAP team.

  11. Adsorption of linear alkanes on Cu(111): Temperature and chain-length dependence of the softened vibrational mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fosser, Kari A.; Kang, Joo H.; Nuzzo, Ralph G.; Wöll, Christof

    2007-05-01

    The vibrational spectra of linear alkanes, with lengths ranging from n-propane to n-octane, were examined on a copper surface by reflection-absorption infrared spectroscopy. The appearance and frequency of the "soft mode," a feature routinely seen in studies of saturated hydrocarbons adsorbed on metals, were examined and compared between the different adsorbates. The frequency of the mode was found to be dependent on both the number of methylene units of each alkane as well as specific aspects of the order of the monolayer phase. Studies of monolayer coverages at different temperatures provide insights into the nature of the two-dimensional (2D) melting transitions of these adlayer structures, ones that can be inferred from observed shifts in the soft vibrational modes appearing in the C-H stretching region of the infrared spectrum. These studies support recently reported hypotheses as to the origins of such soft modes: the metal-hydrogen interactions that mediate them and the dynamics that underlay their pronounced temperature dependencies. The present data strongly support a model for the 2D to one-dimensional order-order phase transition arising via a continuous rather than discrete first-order process.

  12. Linear gyrokinetic calculations of toroidal momentum transport in a tokamak due to the ion temperature gradient mode

    SciTech Connect

    Peeters, A.G.; Angioni, C.

    2005-07-15

    It is shown from a symmetry in the gyrokinetic equation that for up-down symmetric tokamak equilibria and for u{sub {phi}}>>{rho}{upsilon}{sub thi}/r (where u{sub {phi}} is the toroidal velocity, {upsilon}{sub thi} is the thermal ion velocity, {rho} is the Larmor radius, and r is the radius of the flux surface), the transport of parallel momentum can be written as the sum of a diffusive and a pinch contribution with no off-diagonal terms due to temperature and pressure gradients. The measured parallel velocity gradient in ASDEX Upgrade [O. Gruber, H.-S. Bosch, S. Guenter et al., Nucl. Fusion 39, 1321 (1999)] is insufficient to drive the parallel velocity shear instability. The parallel velocity is then transported by the ion temperature gradient mode. The diffusive contribution to the transport flux is investigated using a linear gyrokinetic approach, and it is found that the diffusion coefficient for parallel velocity transport divided by the ion heat conductivity coefficient is close to 1, and only weakly dependent on plasma parameters.

  13. The temperature dependence of the crossover magnetic field of linear magnetoresistance in the Cu0.1Bi2Se3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Shiu-Ming; Yu, Shih-Hsun; Chou, Mitch

    2016-08-01

    A non-saturating linear magnetoresistance (MR) is observed in Cu0.1Bi2Se3 in a wide range of temperatures. The crossover magnetic field, B*, deviating from the linear MR, increases as the temperature increases. The experimental results show that the normalized B*, inverse MR slope and mobility follow the same temperature dependence that is consistent with the model constructed by Parich and Littlewood (PL model). The mechanism of the T 2 dependent B* is systematically and comprehensively discussed through existing theories, and might be due to the electron‑electron scattering in a highly uniform system with a few low mobility defects.

  14. Exploiting the atmosphere's memory for monthly, seasonal and interannual temperature forecasting using Scaling LInear Macroweather Model (SLIMM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Del Rio Amador, Lenin; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    Traditionally, most of the models for prediction of the atmosphere behavior in the macroweather and climate regimes follow a deterministic approach. However, modern ensemble forecasting systems using stochastic parameterizations are in fact deterministic/ stochastic hybrids that combine both elements to yield a statistical distribution of future atmospheric states. Nevertheless, the result is both highly complex (both numerically and theoretically) as well as being theoretically eclectic. In principle, it should be advantageous to exploit higher level turbulence type scaling laws. Concretely, in the case for the Global Circulation Models (GCM's), due to sensitive dependence on initial conditions, there is a deterministic predictability limit of the order of 10 days. When these models are coupled with ocean, cryosphere and other process models to make long range, climate forecasts, the high frequency "weather" is treated as a driving noise in the integration of the modelling equations. Following Hasselman, 1976, this has led to stochastic models that directly generate the noise, and model the low frequencies using systems of integer ordered linear ordinary differential equations, the most well-known are the Linear Inverse Models (LIM). For annual global scale forecasts, they are somewhat superior to the GCM's and have been presented as a benchmark for surface temperature forecasts with horizons up to decades. A key limitation for the LIM approach is that it assumes that the temperature has only short range (exponential) decorrelations. In contrast, an increasing body of evidence shows that - as with the models - the atmosphere respects a scale invariance symmetry leading to power laws with potentially enormous memories so that LIM greatly underestimates the memory of the system. In this talk we show that, due to the relatively low macroweather intermittency, the simplest scaling models - fractional Gaussian noise - can be used for making greatly improved forecasts

  15. Variability and trend of diurnal temperature range in China and their relationship to total cloud cover and sunshine duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, X.

    2013-05-01

    This study aims to investigate the effect of total cloud cover (TCC) and sunshine duration (SSD) in the variation of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in China during 1954-2009. As expected, the inter-annual variation of DTR was mainly determined by TCC. Analysis of trends of 30-year moving windows of DTR and TCC time series showed that TCC changes could account for that of DTR in some cases. However, TCC decreased during 1954-2009, which did not support DTR reduction across China. DTRs under sky conditions such as clear, cloudy and overcast showed nearly the same decreasing rate that completely accounted for the overall DTR reduction. Nevertheless, correlation between SSD and DTR was weak and not significant under clear sky conditions in which aerosol direct radiative effect should be dominant. Furthermore, 30-60% of DTR reduction was associated with DTR decrease under overcast conditions in south China. This implies that aerosol direct radiative effect appears not to be one of the main factors determining long-term changes in DTR in China.

  16. Trends in Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices for the Countries of the Western Indian Ocean, 1975-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Enric; Vincent, Lucie A.

    2010-05-01

    In the framework of the project "Renforcement des Capacités des Pays de la COI dans le Domaine de l'Adaptation au Changement Climatique (ACCLIMATE)" (Comission de l'Ocean Indien, COI), a workshop on homogenization of climate data and climate change indices analysis was held in Mauritius in October 2009, using the successful format prepared by the CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Scientists from the five countries in Western Indian Ocean brought daily climatological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of the data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices which can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. Although the period of analysis is very short, it represents a seminal step for the compilation of longer data set and allows us to examine the evolution of climate extremes in the area during the time period identified as the decades where anthropogenic warming es larger than natural forcings. This study first presents some results of the homogeneity assessment using the software package RHtestV3 (Wang and Feng 2009) which has been developed for the detection of changepoints in climatological datasets. Indices based on homogenized daily temperatures and precipitations were also prepared for the analysis of trends at more than 50 stations across the region. The results show an increase in the percentage of warm days and warm nights over 1975-2008 while changes in extreme precipitations are not as consistent.

  17. Is the curve relating temperature to aggression linear or curvilinear? A response to Bell (2005) and to Cohn and Rotton (2005).

    PubMed

    Bushman, Brad J; Wang, Morgan C; Anderson, Craig A

    2005-07-01

    P. Bell recommended examining the relationship between temperature and assaults during the hottest times of day and during the hottest months of the year. The authors' analyses of these data show a linear rather than inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and assault during the hottest times of day and in the hottest months of the year. E. Cohn and J. Rotton recommended analyzing the 6 hr with the highest assaults versus the 6 hr with the lowest assaults. During high assault periods, there is a strong positive linear relationship between temperature and assault. During low assault periods, there is no relationship between temperature and assaults. Assaults and other violent crimes might decrease when temperatures are very hot, but the Minneapolis data set does not allow for testing of this hypothesis because Minneapolis is too cold. PMID:16060746

  18. High Spatial Resolution Forecasting of Long-Term Monthly Precipitation and Mean Temperature Trends in Data Scarce Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

    2013-12-01

    meteorological trends for the Pakistan region and more broadly serves to demonstrate the utility of the presented 30 arc-second monthly precipitation and mean temperature datasets for use in data scarce regions.

  19. Motion induced second order temperature and y-type anisotropies after the subtraction of linear dipole in the CMB maps

    SciTech Connect

    Sunyaev, Rashid A.; Khatri, Rishi E-mail: khatri@mpa-garching.mpg.de

    2013-03-01

    y-type spectral distortions of the cosmic microwave background allow us to detect clusters and groups of galaxies, filaments of hot gas and the non-uniformities in the warm hot intergalactic medium. Several CMB experiments (on small areas of sky) and theoretical groups (for full sky) have recently published y-type distortion maps. We propose to search for two artificial hot spots in such y-type maps resulting from the incomplete subtraction of the effect of the motion induced dipole on the cosmic microwave background sky. This dipole introduces, at second order, additional temperature and y-distortion anisotropy on the sky of amplitude few μK which could potentially be measured by Planck HFI and Pixie experiments and can be used as a source of cross channel calibration by CMB experiments. This y-type distortion is present in every pixel and is not the result of averaging the whole sky. This distortion, calculated exactly from the known linear dipole, can be subtracted from the final y-type maps, if desired.

  20. The Association between Ambient Temperature and Childhood Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Chengdu, China: A Distributed Lag Non-linear Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Fei; Zhang, Tao; Liu, Lei; Lv, Qiang; Li, Xiaosong

    2016-01-01

    Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has recently been recognized as a critical challenge to disease control and public health response in China. This study aimed to quantify the association between temperature and HFMD in Chengdu. Daily HFMD cases and meteorological variables in Chengdu between January 2010 and December 2013 were obtained to construct the time series. A distributed lag non-linear model was performed to investigate the temporal lagged association of daily temperature with age- and gender-specific HFMD. A total of 76,403 HFMD cases aged 0–14 years were reported in Chengdu during the study period, and a bimodal seasonal pattern was observed. The temperature-HFMD relationships were non-linear in all age and gender groups, with the first peak at 14.0–14.1 °C and the second peak at 23.1–23.2 °C. The high temperatures had acute and short-term effects and declined quickly over time, while the effects in low temperature ranges were persistent over longer lag periods. Males and children aged <1 year were more vulnerable to temperature variations. Temperature played an important role in HFMD incidence with non-linear and delayed effects. The success of HFMD intervention strategies could benefit from giving more consideration to local climatic conditions. PMID:27248051

  1. Quantitative measurement of temperature by proton resonance frequency shift at low field: a general method to correct non-linear spatial and temporal phase deformations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimault, S.; Lucas, T.; Quellec, S.; Mariette, F.

    2004-09-01

    MRI thermometry methods are usually based on the temperature dependence of the proton resonance frequency. Unfortunately, these methods are very sensitive to the phase drift induced by the instability of the scanner which prevents any temperature mapping over long periods of time. A general method based on 3D spatial modelling of the phase drift as a function of time is presented. The MRI temperature measurements were validated on gel samples with uniform and constant temperature and with a linear temperature gradient. In the case of uniform temperature conditions, correction of the phase drift proved to be essential when long periods of acquisition were required, as bias could reach values of up to 200 °C in its absence. The temperature uncertainty measured by MRI was 1.2 °C in average over 290 min. This accuracy is coherent with the requirements for food applications especially when thermocouples are useless.

  2. Regional impacts of global change: seasonal trends in extreme rainfall, run-off and temperature in two contrasting regions of Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khomsi, Kenza; Mahe, Gil; Tramblay, Yves; Sinan, Mohamed; Snoussi, Maria

    2016-05-01

    In Morocco, socio-economic activities are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events. This study investigates trends in mean and extreme rainfall, run-off and temperature, as well as their relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation. It focuses on two Moroccan watersheds: the subhumid climate region of Bouregreg in the north and the semi-arid region of Tensift in the south, using data from 1977 to 2003. The study is based on a set of daily temperature, precipitation and run-off time series retrieved from weather stations in the two regions. Results do not show a homogeneous behaviour in the two catchments; the influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is different and a clear spatial dependence of the trend analysis linked to the distance from the coast and the mountains can be observed. Overall, temperature trends are mostly positive in the studied area, while weak statistically significant trends can be identified in seasonal rainfall, extreme rainfall events, average run-off and extreme run-off events.

  3. Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahai, A. K.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Abhilash, S.

    2016-06-01

    The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a cooling of East Antarctica in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature trends over two distinct time periods (1960-2005 and 1979-2005), and with those simulated by 40 models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially between the two periods and, furthermore, that it is completely absent from the forced response seen in the CMIP5 multi-model mean, from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging. We also examine the relationship between the Southern Annular mode (SAM) and Antarctic temperature trends, in both models and reanalyses, and again conclude that there is little evidence of anthropogenic SAM-induced driving of the recent temperature trends. These results offer new, compelling evidence pointing to natural climate variability as a key contributor to the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

  4. Laser induced fluorescence measurements of axial velocity, velocity shear, and parallel ion temperature profiles during the route to plasma turbulence in a linear magnetized plasma device

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chakraborty Thakur, S.; Adriany, K.; Gosselin, J. J.; McKee, J.; Scime, E. E.; Sears, S. H.; Tynan, G. R.

    2016-11-01

    We report experimental measurements of the axial plasma flow and the parallel ion temperature in a magnetized linear plasma device. We used laser induced fluorescence to measure Doppler resolved ion velocity distribution functions in argon plasma to obtain spatially resolved axial velocities and parallel ion temperatures. We also show changes in the parallel velocity profiles during the transition from resistive drift wave dominated plasma to a state of weak turbulence driven by multiple plasma instabilities.

  5. An Analysis of Simulated and Observed Global Mean Near-Surface Air Temperature Anomalies from 1979 to 1999: Trends and Attribution of Causes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacKay, R. M.; Ko, M. K. W.

    2001-01-01

    The 1979 - 1999 response of the climate system to variations in solar spectral irradiance is estimated by comparing the global averaged surface temperature anomalies simulated by a 2D (two dimensional) energy balance climate model to observed temperature anomalies. We perform a multiple regression of southern oscillation index and the individual model responses to solar irradiance variations, stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone trends, and greenhouse gases onto each of five near-surface temperature anomaly data sets. We estimate the observed difference in global mean near surface air temperature attributable to the solar irradiance difference between solar maximum and solar minimum to be between 0.06 and 0.11 K, and that 1.1 - 3.8% of the total variance in monthly mean near-surface air temperature data is attributable to nations in solar spectral irradiance. For the five temperature data sets used in our analysis, the trends in raw monthly mean temperature anomaly data have a large range, spanning a factor of 3 from 0.06 to 0.17 K/decade. However. our analysis suggests that trends in monthly temperature anomalies attributable to the combination of greenhouse gas, stratospheric ozone, and tropospheric sulfate aerosol variations are much more consistent among data sets, ranging from 0.16 to 0.24 K/decade. Our model results suggest that roughly half of the warming from greenhouse gases is cancelled by the cooling from changes in stratospheric ozone. Tropospheric sulfate aerosol loading in the present day atmospheric contributes significantly to the net radiative forcing of the present day climate system. However, because the change in magnitude and latitudinal distribution of tropospheric sulfate aerosol has been small over the past 20 years, the change in the direct radiative forcing attributable to changes in aerosol loading over this time is also small.

  6. On the spur lifetime and its temperature dependence in the low linear energy transfer radiolysis of water.

    PubMed

    Sanguanmith, Sunuchakan; Meesungnoen, Jintana; Muroya, Yusa; Lin, Mingzhang; Katsumura, Yosuke; Jay-Gerin, Jean-Paul

    2012-12-28

    In the spirit of the radiation chemical "spur model", the lifetime of a spur (τ(s)) is an important indicator of overlapping spurs and the establishment of homogeneity in the distribution of reactive species created by the action of low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation (such as fast electrons or γ irradiation). In fact, τ(s) gives the time required for the changeover from nonhomogeneous spur kinetics to homogeneous kinetics in the bulk solution, thus defining the so-called primary (or "escape") radical and molecular yields of radiolysis, which are obviously basic to the quantitative understanding of any irradiated chemical system. In this work, τ(s) and its temperature dependence have been determined for the low-LET radiolysis of deaerated 0.4 M aqueous solutions of H(2)SO(4) and pure liquid water up to 350 °C using a simple model of energy deposition initially in spurs, followed by random diffusion of the species of the spur during track expansion until spur overlap is complete. Unlike our previous τ(s) calculations, based on irradiated Fricke dosimeter simulations, the current model is free from any effects due to the presence of oxygen or the use of scavengers. In acidic solutions, the spur lifetime values thus obtained are in very good agreement with our previous calculations (after making appropriate corrections, however, to account for the possibility of competition between oxygen and Fe(2+) ions for H˙ atoms in the Fricke dosimeter, an effect which was not included in our original simulations). In this way, we confirm the validity of our previous approach. As expected, in the case of pure, oxygen-free water, our calculated times required to reach complete spur overlap are essentially the same (within uncertainty limits) as those found in acidic solutions. This explicitly reflects the fact that the diffusion coefficients for the hydrated electron and the H˙ atom that are involved in the overall calculation of the lifetime of spurs in neutral or

  7. Long-term Trend of Cold Air Mass Amount below a Designated Potential Temperature in Northern and Southern Hemisphere Winters with 7 Different Reanalysis Datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanno, Y.; Abdillah, M. R.; Iwasaki, T.

    2015-12-01

    This study addresses that the hemispheric total cold air mass amount defined below a threshold potential temperature of 280 K is a good indicator of the long-term trend of climate change in the polar region. We demonstrate quantitative analyses of warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) winters, using 7 different reanalysis datasets (JRA-55, JRA-55C, JRA-55AMIP, ERA-interim, CFSR, JRA-25, NCEP-NCAR). Hemispheric total cold air mass amount in the NH winter exhibit a statistically significant decreasing trend in all reanalysis datasets at a rate about -1.37 to -0.77% per decade over the period 1959-2012 and at a rate about -1.57 to -0.82% per decade over 1980-2012. There is no statistically significant trend in the equatorward cold air mass flux across latitude of 45N, which is an indicator for hemispheric-scale cold air outbreak, over the period 1980-2012 except for NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset which shows substantial decreasing trend of about -3.28% per decade. The spatial distribution of the long-term trend of cold air mass amount in the NH winter is almost consistent among reanalysis datasets except for JRA-55AMIP over the period 1980-2012. Cold air mass amount increases over Central Siberia, Kamchatka peninsula, and Bering Sea, while it decreases over Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Greenland, Canada, Northern part of United States, and East Asia. In the SH winter, on the other hand, there is a large discrepancy in hemispheric total cold air mass amount and equatorward cold air mass flux across latitude of 50S over the period 1980-2010 among reanalysis datasets. This result indicate that there is a large uncertainty in the long-term trend of cold air mass amount in the SH winter.

  8. Selecting a model for detecting the presence of a trend

    SciTech Connect

    Woodward, W.A.; Gray, H.L.

    1995-08-01

    The authors consider the problem of determining whether the upward trending behavior in the global temperature anomaly series should be forecast to continue. To address this question, the generic problem of determining whether an observed trend in a time series realization is a random (i.e., short-term) trend or a deterministic (i.e., permanent) trend is considered. The importance of making this determination is that forecasts based on these two scenarios are dramatically different. Forecasts based on a series with random trends will not predict the observed trend to continue, while forecasts based on a model with deterministic trend will forecast the trend to continue into the future. In this paper, the authors consider an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a {open_quotes}deterministic forcing function + autoregressive (AR) noise{close_quotes} model as possible random trend and deterministic trend models, respectively, for realizations displaying trending behavior. A bootstrap-based classification procedure for classifying an observed time series realization as ARIMA or {open_quotes}function + AR{close_quotes} using linear and quadratic forcing functions is introduced. A simulation study demonstrates that the procedure is useful in distinguishing between realizations from these two models. A unit-root test is also examined in an effort to distinguish between these two types of models. Using the techniques developed here, the temperature anomaly series are classified as ARIMA (i.e., having random trends). 18 refs., 1 fig., 8 tabs.

  9. The Heat Resistance of Microbial Cells Represented by D Values Can be Estimated by the Transition Temperature and the Coefficient of Linear Expansion.

    PubMed

    Nakanishi, Koichi; Kogure, Akinori; Deuchi, Keiji; Kuwana, Ritsuko; Takamatsu, Hiromu; Ito, Kiyoshi

    2015-01-01

    We previously developed a method for evaluating the heat resistance of microorganisms by measuring the transition temperature at which the coefficient of linear expansion of a cell changes. Here, we performed heat resistance measurements using a scanning probe microscope with a nano thermal analysis system. The microorganisms studied included six strains of the genus Bacillus or related genera, one strain each of the thermophilic obligate anaerobic bacterial genera Thermoanaerobacter and Moorella, two strains of heat-resistant mold, two strains of non-sporulating bacteria, and one strain of yeast. Both vegetative cells and spores were evaluated. The transition temperature at which the coefficient of linear expansion due to heating changed from a positive value to a negative value correlated strongly with the heat resistance of the microorganism as estimated from the D value. The microorganisms with greater heat resistance exhibited higher transition temperatures. There was also a strong negative correlation between the coefficient of linear expansion and heat resistance in bacteria and yeast, such that microorganisms with greater heat resistance showed lower coefficients of linear expansion. These findings suggest that our method could be useful for evaluating the heat resistance of microorganisms.

  10. The Heat Resistance of Microbial Cells Represented by D Values Can be Estimated by the Transition Temperature and the Coefficient of Linear Expansion.

    PubMed

    Nakanishi, Koichi; Kogure, Akinori; Deuchi, Keiji; Kuwana, Ritsuko; Takamatsu, Hiromu; Ito, Kiyoshi

    2015-01-01

    We previously developed a method for evaluating the heat resistance of microorganisms by measuring the transition temperature at which the coefficient of linear expansion of a cell changes. Here, we performed heat resistance measurements using a scanning probe microscope with a nano thermal analysis system. The microorganisms studied included six strains of the genus Bacillus or related genera, one strain each of the thermophilic obligate anaerobic bacterial genera Thermoanaerobacter and Moorella, two strains of heat-resistant mold, two strains of non-sporulating bacteria, and one strain of yeast. Both vegetative cells and spores were evaluated. The transition temperature at which the coefficient of linear expansion due to heating changed from a positive value to a negative value correlated strongly with the heat resistance of the microorganism as estimated from the D value. The microorganisms with greater heat resistance exhibited higher transition temperatures. There was also a strong negative correlation between the coefficient of linear expansion and heat resistance in bacteria and yeast, such that microorganisms with greater heat resistance showed lower coefficients of linear expansion. These findings suggest that our method could be useful for evaluating the heat resistance of microorganisms. PMID:26699861

  11. Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric temperature trend (1979-2008)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, A. K.; Yang, K.-H. S.; El-Askary, H. M.; Kafatos, M.

    2009-12-01

    Global warming or the increase of the surface and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth, is increasingly discernible in the polar, sub-polar and major land glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers, which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions, are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia as they feed major rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations, the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) since 1979-2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up to 0.048±0.026°K/year or 1.44°K over 30 years) of the mid troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau) is prominent and statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016±0.005°K/year), and Tibetan Plateau (0.008±0.006°K/year) is positive, the month to month warming trend is higher (by 2-3 times, positive and significant) only over a period of six months (December to May). The factors responsible for the reversal of this trend from June to November are discussed here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic) plains is attributed to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust storms) over these regions. The monthly mean lower-tropospheric MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032±0.027°K/year) and dust source regions (Sahara desert, Middle East, Arabian region, Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions; up to 0.068±0.033°K/year) also shows

  12. Impact of Temperature Trends on Short-Term Energy Demand, The (Released in the STEO September 1999)

    EIA Publications

    1999-01-01

    The past few years have witnessed unusually warm weather, as evidenced by both mild winters and hot summers. The analysis shows that the 30-year norms--the basis of weather-related energy demand projections--do not reflect the warming trend or its regional and seasonal patterns.

  13. Modelling and mapping spatio-temporal trends of heavy metal accumulation in moss and natural surface soil monitored 1990-2010 throughout Norway by multivariate generalized linear models and geostatistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nickel, Stefan; Hertel, Anne; Pesch, Roland; Schröder, Winfried; Steinnes, Eiliv; Uggerud, Hilde Thelle

    2014-12-01

    Objective. This study explores the statistical relations between the accumulation of heavy metals in moss and natural surface soil and potential influencing factors such as atmospheric deposition by use of multivariate regression-kriging and generalized linear models. Based on data collected in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 throughout Norway the statistical correlation of a set of potential predictors (elevation, precipitation, density of different land uses, population density, physical properties of soil) with concentrations of cadmium (Cd), mercury and lead in moss and natural surface soil (response variables), respectively, were evaluated. Spatio-temporal trends were estimated by applying generalized linear models and geostatistics on spatial data covering Norway. The resulting maps were used to investigate to what extent the HM concentrations in moss and natural surface soil are correlated. Results. From a set of ten potential predictor variables the modelled atmospheric deposition showed the highest correlation with heavy metals concentrations in moss and natural surface soil. Density of various land uses in a 5 km radius reveal significant correlations with lead and cadmium concentration in moss and mercury concentration in natural surface soil. Elevation also appeared as a relevant factor for accumulation of lead and mercury in moss and cadmium in natural surface soil respectively. Precipitation was found to be a significant factor for cadmium in moss and mercury in natural surface soil. The integrated use of multivariate generalized linear models and kriging interpolation enabled creating heavy metals maps at a high level of spatial resolution. The spatial patterns of cadmium and lead concentrations in moss and natural surface soil in 1995 and 2005 are similar. The heavy metals concentrations in moss and natural surface soil are correlated significantly with high coefficients for lead, medium for cadmium and moderate for mercury. From 1995 up to 2010 the

  14. Detection and Monitoring of Stratigraphic Markers and Temperature Trends at the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Using Passive-Microwave Remote-Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shuman, C. A.; Alley, R. B.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Fawcett, P. J.; Bondschadler, R. A.; White, J. W. C.; Grootes, P. M.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Stearns, C. R.

    1997-01-01

    Satellite passive-microwave sensors provide a sensitive means of studying ice-sheet surface processes that assists ice-core interpretation and can extend local observations across regional scales. Analysis of special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) brightness temperature (TB) data supports ice-core research in two specific ways. First, the summer hoar complex layers used to date the Holocene portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core can be defined temporally and spatially by SSM/I 37-GHz vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized B ratio (V/H) trends. Second, comparison of automatic weather station temperatures to SSM/I 37-GHz V TB data shows that they are an effective proxy temperature record in this region. Also, the TB data can be correlated with proxy temperature trends from stable-isotope-ratio (delta O-18 and delta-D) profiles from snow pits and this allows the assignment of dates to specific snow depths.

  15. Performance of low-cost few-mode fiber Bragg grating sensor systems: polarization sensitivity and linearity of temperature and strain response.

    PubMed

    Ganziy, D; Rose, B; Bang, O

    2016-08-10

    We evaluate whether 850 nm fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor systems can use low-cost 1550 nm telecom fibers; in other words, how detrimental the influence of higher-order modes is to the polarization stability and linearity of the strain and temperature response. We do this by comparing polarization sensitivity of a few-mode 850 nm FBG sensor to a strictly single-mode 850 nm FBG sensor system using 850 nm single-mode fibers. We also compare the performance of the FBGs in strain and temperature tests. Our results show that the polarization stability and the linearity of the response degrade due to the presence of the higher-order modes. We demonstrate that, by using simple coiling of the 1550 nm fiber, one can regain the performance of the few-mode system and make it usable for high precision measurements. PMID:27534455

  16. The Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Wuhan, China: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yunquan; Li, Cunlu; Feng, Renjie; Zhu, Yaohui; Wu, Kai; Tan, Xiaodong; Ma, Lu

    2016-01-01

    Less evidence concerning the association between ambient temperature and mortality is available in developing countries/regions, especially inland areas of China, and few previous studies have compared the predictive ability of different temperature indictors (minimum, mean, and maximum temperature) on mortality. We assessed the effects of temperature on daily mortality from 2003 to 2010 in Jiang'an District of Wuhan, the largest city in central China. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with both non-threshold and double-threshold distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to examine the associations between different temperature indictors and cause-specific mortality. We found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality in Wuhan. Double-threshold DLNM with mean temperature performed best in predicting temperature-mortality relationship. Cold effect was delayed, whereas hot effect was acute, both of which lasted for several days. For cold effects over lag 0-21 days, a 1 °C decrease in mean temperature below the cold thresholds was associated with a 2.39% (95% CI: 1.71, 3.08) increase in non-accidental mortality, 3.65% (95% CI: 2.62, 4.69) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 3.87% (95% CI: 1.57, 6.22) increase in respiratory mortality, 3.13% (95% CI: 1.88, 4.38) increase in stroke mortality, and 21.57% (95% CI: 12.59, 31.26) increase in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality. For hot effects over lag 0-7 days, a 1 °C increase in mean temperature above the hot thresholds was associated with a 25.18% (95% CI: 18.74, 31.96) increase in non-accidental mortality, 34.10% (95% CI: 25.63, 43.16) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 24.27% (95% CI: 7.55, 43.59) increase in respiratory mortality, 59.1% (95% CI: 41.81, 78.5) increase in stroke mortality, and 17.00% (95% CI: 7.91, 26.87) increase in IHD mortality. This study suggested that both low and high temperature were associated with increased mortality in Wuhan, and that mean

  17. The Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Wuhan, China: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yunquan; Li, Cunlu; Feng, Renjie; Zhu, Yaohui; Wu, Kai; Tan, Xiaodong; Ma, Lu

    2016-01-01

    Less evidence concerning the association between ambient temperature and mortality is available in developing countries/regions, especially inland areas of China, and few previous studies have compared the predictive ability of different temperature indictors (minimum, mean, and maximum temperature) on mortality. We assessed the effects of temperature on daily mortality from 2003 to 2010 in Jiang’an District of Wuhan, the largest city in central China. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with both non-threshold and double-threshold distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to examine the associations between different temperature indictors and cause-specific mortality. We found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality in Wuhan. Double-threshold DLNM with mean temperature performed best in predicting temperature-mortality relationship. Cold effect was delayed, whereas hot effect was acute, both of which lasted for several days. For cold effects over lag 0–21 days, a 1 °C decrease in mean temperature below the cold thresholds was associated with a 2.39% (95% CI: 1.71, 3.08) increase in non-accidental mortality, 3.65% (95% CI: 2.62, 4.69) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 3.87% (95% CI: 1.57, 6.22) increase in respiratory mortality, 3.13% (95% CI: 1.88, 4.38) increase in stroke mortality, and 21.57% (95% CI: 12.59, 31.26) increase in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality. For hot effects over lag 0–7 days, a 1 °C increase in mean temperature above the hot thresholds was associated with a 25.18% (95% CI: 18.74, 31.96) increase in non-accidental mortality, 34.10% (95% CI: 25.63, 43.16) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 24.27% (95% CI: 7.55, 43.59) increase in respiratory mortality, 59.1% (95% CI: 41.81, 78.5) increase in stroke mortality, and 17.00% (95% CI: 7.91, 26.87) increase in IHD mortality. This study suggested that both low and high temperature were associated with increased mortality in Wuhan, and that

  18. A TREND BETWEEN COLD DEBRIS DISK TEMPERATURE AND STELLAR TYPE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF WIDE-ORBIT PLANETS

    SciTech Connect

    Ballering, Nicholas P.; Rieke, George H.; Su, Kate Y. L.; Montiel, Edward

    2013-09-20

    Cold debris disks trace the limits of planet formation or migration in the outer regions of planetary systems, and thus have the potential to answer many of the outstanding questions in wide-orbit planet formation and evolution. We characterized the infrared excess spectral energy distributions of 174 cold debris disks around 546 main-sequence stars observed by both the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph and the Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer. We found a trend between the temperature of the inner edges of cold debris disks and the stellar type of the stars they orbit. This argues against the importance of strictly temperature-dependent processes (e.g., non-water ice lines) in setting the dimensions of cold debris disks. Also, we found no evidence that delayed stirring causes the trend. The trend may result from outward planet migration that traces the extent of the primordial protoplanetary disk, or it may result from planet formation that halts at an orbital radius limited by the efficiency of core accretion.

  19. Global trends of cloud cover and cloud height derived from GOME satellite observations 1996-2003 and their relation to surface-near temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, T.; Beirle, S.; Grzegorski, M.; Platt, U.

    2006-12-01

    We analyzed global data sets of the atmospheric O2 absorption and the effective cloud fraction from GOME satellite observations for the period 1996-2003. The O2 absorption is a measure of the average photon path- length, it can be retrieved with high precision from the measured spectra of back-scattered sunlight by differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) and is almost not affected by instrument degradation. Thus it is especially well suited for trend studies. the effective cloud fraction from broad band intensity measurements. From the combination with the effective cloud fraction, in particular information on the cloud altitude can be derived. We find that an increase of the surface-near temperatures in general leads to a decrease of the O2 absorption; this dependency is especially strong over the tropical oceans and the northern hemispheric continents. For the globally averaged values we find a negative trend of the O2 absorption (-0.8 percent over 7 years), while for the effective cloud fraction the analyzed trend (+0.33 percent over 7 years) is not significant. During the same period the surface-near temperatures increased by +0.1K. The decrease of the O2 absorption can be mainly attributed to an increase of the average cloud top height indicating a positive cloud feedback.

  20. Non-linear effects of initial melt temperatures on microstructures and mechanical properties during quenching process of liquid Cu46Zr54 alloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mo, Yun-Fei; Liu, Rang-Su; Tian, Ze-An; Liang, Yong-Chao; Zhang, Hai-Tao; Hou, Zhao-Yang; Liu, Hai-Rong; Zhang, Ai-long; Zhou, Li-Li; Peng, Ping; Xie, Zhong

    2015-05-01

    A MD simulation of liquid Cu46Zr54 alloys has been performed for understanding the effects of initial melt temperatures on the microstructural evolution and mechanical properties during quenching process. By using several microstructural analyzing methods, it is found that the icosahedral and defective icosahedral clusters play a key role in the microstructure transition. All the final solidification structures obtained at different initial melt temperatures are of amorphous structures, and their structural and mechanical properties are non-linearly related to the initial melt temperatures, and fluctuated in a certain range. Especially, there exists a best initial melt temperature, from which the glass configuration possesses the highest packing density, the optimal elastic constants, and the smaller extent of structural softening under deforming.

  1. Lubricated Bearing Lifetimes of a Multiply Alkylated Cyclopentane and a Linear Perfluoropolyether Fluid in Oscillatory Motion at Elevated Temperatures in Ultrahigh Vacuum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braza, Joseph; Jansen, Mark J.; Jones, William R.

    2009-01-01

    Bearing life tests in vacuum with three space liquid lubricants, two multiply alkylated cyclopentanes (MACs) and a linear perfluoropolyether (PFPE) were performed. Test conditions included: an 89 N axial load (mean Hertzian stress 0.66 GPa), vacuum level below 7x10(exp -4) Pa, and a +/-30deg dither angle. Dither rate was 75 cycles per minute. Higher (110 to 122 C) and lower temperature tests (75 C) were performed. For the higher temperature tests, the PFPE, Fomblin (Ausimont SpA) Z25 outperformed Pennzane (Shell Global Solutions) X-2000 by more than an order of magnitude. Lubricant evaporation played a key role in these high temperature results. At 75 C, the order was reversed with both Pennzane X-1000 and X-2000 outperforming Fomblin Z25 by more than an order of magnitude. Most Pennzane tests were suspended without failure. The primary failure mechanism in these lower temperature tests was lubricant consumption in the tribocontacts.

  2. Interannual Variability and Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Indices in Finland in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation Patterns, 1961-2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irannezhad, Masoud; Kløve, Bjørn

    2016-04-01

    Daily temperature (minimum and maximum) and precipitation datasets applied at regular grid points (10×10 km2) throughout Finland for 1961-2011 were analyzed with the aim to evaluate variability and trends in weather extremes on both national and spatial scale of the country and their relationships with atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs). Recommending by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), the extreme indices considered for daily temperature were frost days (FD), summer days (SD) and ice days (ID); and for daily precipitation were heavy precipitation days (R10), consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), highest 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day), simple daily intensity index (SDII) and precipitation fraction due to 95th percentile of the reference period (R95pTOT). This study used the well-known influential ACPs for Finland climate variability: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), Polar (POL), Scandinavia (SCA). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to determine significant historical trends in extreme indices, and the Spearman rank correlation (rho) to identify relationships between extreme indices and ACPs. For daily temperature indices, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends were found in ID (-0.40±0.34 days/year) and FD (-0.45±0.27 days/year) on a national scale of Finland during 1961-2011. The AO and EA/WR were most significant ACPs affecting variations in ID and FD, with rho = -0.73 and 0.42, respectively. For the daily precipitation extreme indices on the nation-wide of country over the study period (1961-2011), significant trends were only determined in SDII (0.01±0.00 mm/wet days year) and R95pTOT (0.19±0.09 %/year). Both of these indices (SDII and R95pTOT) showed the strongest correlations with the EA/WR pattern, with rho between from -0.42 to -0.34. The EA/WR pattern was also the most influential ACP for

  3. Room-temperature single photon sources with definite circular and linear polarizations based on single-emitter fluorescence in liquid crystal hosts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bissell, Luke J.; Lukishova, Svetlana G.; Schmid, Ansgar W.; Hahn, Megan A.; Evans, Chris M.; Krauss, Todd D.; Stroud, Carlos R., Jr.; Boyd, Robert W.

    2010-09-01

    Experimental results of two room-temperature, robust and efficient single-photon sources with definite circular and linear polarization using single-emitter fluorescence in cholesteric and nematic liquid crystal hosts are discussed. For single emitters, we used nanocrystal quantum dots, single color centers in nanodiamonds, and single dye molecules. Single-photon sources based on single emitters in liquid crystals are the room temperature alternatives to cryogenic single-photon sources base on semiconductor heterostructured quantum dots in microcavities prepared by molecular beam epitaxy.

  4. Thermal convection of temperature-dependent viscous fluids within three-dimensional faulted geothermal systems: Estimation from linear and numerical analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malkovsky, Victor I.; Magri, Fabien

    2016-04-01

    Linear stability analysis and numerical simulations of density-driven flow are presented in order to estimate the effects of temperature-dependent fluid viscosity variation on the onset of free thermal convection within a three-dimensional fault embedded into impermeable rocks. The strongly coupled equations of density-driven flow are linearized. The solution was obtained through expansion into Fourier series. Simple polynomial expressions fitting the neutral stability curves are given for a range of fault aspect ratios, fluid viscosity properties, and thermal conductivity heterogeneity, providing a new tool for the estimation of critical Rayleigh numbers in faulted systems. The results are validated against the limiting case of temperature-invariant viscosity (i.e., constant). 3-D numerical simulations of free convection within a fault are run using the finite element technique in order to verify the theoretical results. It turned out that at average geothermal temperature conditions, thermal convection can develop within faults which permeability is up to 4 times lower than the case of a fluid with constant viscosity, in agreement with the developed linear theory. The polynomial expressions of this study can be applied to any numerical model for testing the feasibility of fault convection in 3-D geothermal basin.

  5. Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The variability of temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past few decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administ...

  6. Recent temperature trends in the South Central Andes reconstructed from sedimentary chrysophyte stomatocysts in Laguna Escondida (1742 m a.s.l., 38°28 S, Chile)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Jong, R.; Schneider, T.; Hernández-Almeida, I.; Grosjean, M.

    2016-02-01

    In this study we present a quantitative, high resolution reconstruction of past austral winter length in the Chilean Andes at 38°S from AD 1920 to 2009. For Laguna Escondida, a nearly pristine lake situated on the flanks of the Andes at 1740 m above sea level, past variability in the duration of the winter season (Days T4 °C) was reconstructed. Because high elevation meteorological stations are absent in this region, the reconstruction provides novel insights into recent temperature trends in the central-southern Andes. As a cold-season temperature proxy, we used chrysophyte stomatocysts. This novel proxy for cold season temperature was so far applied successfully in the European Alps and Pyrenees but has not yet been tested in the Southern Hemisphere. The reconstruction in this study was based on a newly developed Transfer Function to estimate Days T4 °C (number of consecutive days with surface water temperatures at or below 4 °C) from sedimentary stomatocyst assemblages (R2boot = 0.8, RMSEPboot = 28.7 days (= half the standard deviation)). To develop a high quality TF model, sediment traps and thermistors were placed in thirty remote lakes along an altitude gradient (420-2040 m a.s.l.). Complete materials and data were collected in 24 lakes after one year. Detailed statistical analyses indicate that modern stomatocysts primarily respond to the length of the cold season. The TF model was then applied to the sedimentary stomatocysts from a 210Pb-dated short core of L. Escondida. Comparison to independent reanalysis data showed that reconstructed changes in Days T4°C provides detailed information on winter-spring temperature variability since AD 1920. The reconstruction shows that recent warming (onset in AD 1980) in the southern Chilean Andes was not exceptional in the context of the past century. This is in strong contrast to studies from the Northern Hemisphere. The finding is also in contrast to the cooling temperature trends which were detected using

  7. Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013

    PubMed Central

    Dang, Tran Ngoc; Seposo, Xerxes T.; Duc, Nguyen Huu Chau; Thang, Tran Binh; An, Do Dang; Hang, Lai Thi Minh; Long, Tran Thanh; Loan, Bui Thi Hong; Honda, Yasushi

    2016-01-01

    Background The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Objectives Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in Hue, a subtropical city in Viet Nam. Design We collected daily mortality data from the Vietnamese A6 mortality reporting system for 6,214 deceased persons between 2009 and 2013. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the temperature effects on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by assuming negative binomial distribution for count data. We developed an objective-oriented model selection with four steps following the Akaike information criterion (AIC) rule (i.e. a smaller AIC value indicates a better model). Results High temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with short lags, whereas low temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with long lags. The low temperatures increased risk in all-category mortality compared to high temperatures. We observed elevated temperature-mortality risk in vulnerable groups: elderly people (high temperature effect, relative risk [RR]=1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11–1.83; low temperature effect, RR=2.0, 95% CI=1.13–3.52), females (low temperature effect, RR=2.19, 95% CI=1.14–4.21), people with respiratory disease (high temperature effect, RR=2.45, 95% CI=0.91–6.63), and those with cardiovascular disease (high temperature effect, RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.15–2.22; low temperature effect, RR=1.99, 95% CI=0.92–4.28). Conclusions In Hue, the temperature significantly increased the risk of mortality, especially in vulnerable groups (i.e. elderly, female, people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases). These findings may provide a foundation for developing adequate policies to address the effects of temperature on health in Hue City. PMID:26781954

  8. Development and experimental verification of a theory for high-field, ultralow-temperature magnetic linear dichroism of glasses containing molecular chromophores with spin doublet ground states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bominaar, Emile L.; Peterson, Jim

    1999-10-01

    The first observation of magnetic linear dichroism in a metalloprotein Kramers system is reported, namely, that exhibited by the porphyrin moiety in ferricytochrome c (spin S=1/2). The measurements were conducted at low temperatures and in strong magnetic fields to maximize the signal intensity, which is intrinsicly weak in this case. The theory used in the interpretation of the wavelength dependence of this magneto-optical effect is based on the rigid-shift approximation in which the dichroic spectra are expressed as a sum of zeroth, first, and second derivatives of the underlying electronic absorption band. Similar to the case for magnetic circular dichroism, magnetic linear dichroism is caused by the Zeeman interactions of the molecular-chromophore electrons with an applied magnetic field. Two kinds of Zeeman interaction are considered, termed "inner state" and "outer state" depending on, respectively, whether or not they act between the components of a single Kramers doublet of the chromophore. It is formally demonstrated that the zeroth-derivative term for an electric-dipole transition between Kramers doublets arising from inner-state Zeeman interactions (nominally the strongest effect) completely cancels in the powder average over a randomly oriented ensemble of chromophores for all values of temperature and field. This cancellation has a profound effect on the magnetic linear dichroism of molecular chromophores suspended in glasses, as the effect now entirely relies on a set of weaker residual terms, each one having its own spectroscopic characteristics. The residual contributions have been estimated on the basis of electronic-term-energy differences and bandwidths in ferricytochrome c, resulting in the identification of the inner- and outer-state terms C1 and F0 as the dominant signatures. This prediction is in agreement with the experimental data for the shape and dependence on applied field and temperature of the magneto-dichroic spectrum for this

  9. Role of annealing temperatures on structure polymorphism, linear and nonlinear optical properties of nanostructure lead dioxide thin films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeyada, H. M.; Makhlouf, M. M.

    2016-04-01

    The powder of as synthesized lead dioxide (PbO2) has polycrystalline structure β-PbO2 phase of tetragonal crystal system. It becomes nanocrystallites α-PbO2 phase with orthorhombic crystal system upon thermal deposition to form thin films. Annealing temperatures increase nanocrystallites size from 28 to 46 nm. The optical properties of α-PbO2 phase were calculated from absolute values of transmittance and reflectance at nearly normal incidence of light by spectrophotometer measurements. The refractive and extinction indices were determined and showed a response to annealing temperatures. The absorption coefficient of α-PbO2 films is >106 cm-1 in UV region of spectra. Analysis of the absorption coefficient spectra near optical edge showed indirect allowed transition. Annealing temperature decreases the value of indirect energy gap for α-PbO2 films. The dispersion parameters such as single oscillator energy, dispersion energy, dielectric constant at high frequency and lattice dielectric constant were calculated and its variations with annealing temperatures are reported. The nonlinear refractive index (n2), third-order nonlinear susceptibility (χ(3)) and nonlinear absorption coefficient (βc) were determined. It was found that χ(3), n2 and β increase with increasing photon energy and decrease with increasing annealing temperature. The pristine film of α-PbO2 has higher values of nonlinear optical constants than for annealed films; therefore it is suitable for applications in manufacturing nonlinear optical devices.

  10. Flattening of the Greater Himalayan Zone within the Eastern Himalaya: Insights from Pressure-Temperature-Structural Distance Trends from Central and Eastern Bhutan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustsson, K. S.; Gordon, S. M.; Long, S. P.; Seward, G.; Zeiger, K. J.; Penfold, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Quantifying pressure-temperature (P-T) trends across structural thickness provides insight into the tectonic mechanisms for emplacement and exhumation of orogen-scale ductile thrust sheets in active continental collision zones. Furthermore, these trends can reveal, via metamorphic discontinuities, the presence or absence of intra-thrust sheet structures. The Greater Himalayan zone (GHZ) contains mid-crustal rocks exhumed during Neogene convergence between India and Asia; however, the mechanisms that drove their emplacement and exhumation are debated. Within the Bhutan Himalaya, an intra-GHZ structure, the Kakhtang thrust (KT) is proposed to separate the GHZ into structurally upper and lower levels, and is interpreted to extend across much of the eastern Himalaya. In this investigation, peak P-T conditions were determined for rocks from two transects through both levels of the GHZ in north-central and northeastern Bhutan, in order to evaluate the significance of the KT, and to better understand the emplacement mechanism of GHZ rocks. The composition of the phases Grt + Pl + Bt ± Ms ± St ± Amp ± Kfs from twelve metapelite and orthogneiss samples were analyzed using the electron microprobe at UC-Santa Barbara. Peak P-T estimates, determined via THERMOCALC and supplemented by Ti-in-biotite thermometry, show similar T- but differing P versus structural distance trends across each transect. A gradual decrease in temperatures structurally upsection (~750 ºC to 600 ºC) was observed on both transects, and in northeast Bhutan, a steep decreasing pressure trend (0.40 ± 0.08 kbar/km) is documented. In comparison, in north-central Bhutan, a super-lithostatic pressure gradient (0.74 ± 0.16 kbar/km) is observed across >5.5 km of structural thickness, and is interpreted to represent >60 % layer-normal flattening strain, similar in magnitude to flattening documented in GHZ rocks in south-central Bhutan. The documented gradients show no significant change in P-T conditions

  11. Global trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Megie, G.; Chanin, M.-L.; Ehhalt, D.; Fraser, P.; Frederick, J. F.; Gille, J. C.; Mccormick, M. P.; Schoebert, M.; Bishop, L.; Bojkov, R. D.

    1990-01-01

    Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

  12. Pacific sea surface temperatures in the twentieth century: Variability, trend, and connections to long-term hydroclimate variations over the Great Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Bin

    Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit variability on interannual to centennial time scales. This dissertation addresses the challenge to separate SST natural variability from the nonstationary (largely anthropogenic) warming trend; and, based on the clarified variability/trend patterns, evaluate SST forcing of long-term hydroclimate variations over the Great Plains. First, a consistent analysis of natural variability and secular trend in the twentieth century Pacific SSTs is presented. By focusing on spatial and temporal recurrence, but without imposition of periodicity constraints, this single analysis discriminates between biennial, ENSO and decadal variabilities, leading to refined evolutionary descriptions; and between these natural variability modes and secular trend. Specifically, canonical ENSO variability is encapsulated in two modes that depict the growth and decay phases. Another interannual mode, energetic in recent decades, is shown linked to the west-to-east SST development seen in post--climate shift ENSOs: the non-canonical ESNO mode. Pacific decadal variability (PDV) is characterized by two modes: the Pan-Pacific mode has a horse-shoe structure with the closed end skirting the North American coast, and a quiescent eastern equatorial Pacific. The second decadal mode---the North Pacific mode---captures the 1976/77 climate shift and is closer to Mantua's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Implicit accommodation of natural variability leads to a nonstationary SST trend, including midcentury cooling. These Pacific---and residual Atlantic---SST modes are then investigated for their connections to long-term hydroclimate variations over the Great Plains. During the Dust Bowl, dry anomalies in summer are found primarily linked to cool SSTs in the central tropical Pacific associated with non-canonical ENSO, as well as warm SSTs in the eastern tropical Atlantic associated with Atlantic Nino; in spring, however, dry anomalies are overwhelmed by connections

  13. Dependences of Q-branch integrated intensity of linear-molecule pendular spectra on electric-field strength and rotational temperature and its potential applications

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Min; Wang, Hailing; Wang, Qin; Yin, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    We calculate the pendular-state spectra of cold linear molecules, and investigated the dependences of “Q-branch” integrated intensity of pendular spectra on both electric-field strength and molecular rotation-temperature. A new multi-peak structure in the “Q-branch” spectrum is appearing when the Stark interaction strength ω = μE/B equal to or larger than the critical value. Our study shows that the above results can be used not only to measure the electric-field vector and its spatial distribution in some electrostatic devices, such as the Stark decelerator, Stark velocity filter and electrostatic trap and so on, but also to survey the orientation degree of cold linear molecules in a strong electrostatic field. PMID:27231057

  14. Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwartz, Mark D.; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.

    2012-01-01

    Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants’ chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o). The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4–8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4–8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

  15. Cold-season temperature in the Swiss Alps from AD 1100-1500; trends, intra-annual variability and forcing factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Jong, Rixt; Kamenik, Christian; Grosjean, Martin

    2010-05-01

    To fully understand past climatic changes and their forcing factors, detailed reconstructions of past summer and winter temperatures are required. Winter temperature reconstructions are scarce, however, because most biological proxies are biased towards the growing season. This study presents a detailed reconstruction of winter temperatures based on Chrysophyte stomatocysts, silicious scales formed by so-called 'golden algae'. Previous studies (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005; Pla and Catalan, 2005) have demonstrated the sensitivity of these algae to cold-season temperatures. Chrysophyte stomatocyst analysis was carried out on varved sediments from Lake Silvaplana (1791 m a.s.l.) at annual to near-annual resolution for two periods; AD 1100-1500 and AD 1870-2004. For both periods the reference date 'date of spring mixing' (Smix) was reconstructed using a transfer function developed for the Austrian Alps (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005). In the Austrian Alps, Smix was primarily driven by air temperature in the cold season. The strength of stomatocysts as a proxy for winter temperature was tested by directly comparing reconstructed Smix with measured temperatures from nearby meteostation Sils Maria for the period AD 1870 - 2004. Correlation was highest (R = -0.6; p < 0.001) with mean October-April temperatures. The good agreement between reconstructed Smix and mean winter temperatures was interrupted only from AD 1925 - AD 1951, which was related to exceptionally high winter precipitation (thick snowpack) extending the ice-covered period. Strong lake eutrophication after AD 1950 only weakly affected the reconstruction of winter temperature. The winter temperature reconstruction (AD 1100-1500) shows strong interdecadal variability, superimposed on a cooling trend from around AD 1400 onwards. A direct comparison to summer temperature reconstructions based on biogenic silica and chironomid analysis from the same cores (Trachsel et al., in review; Larocque-Tobler et al., accepted

  16. Trends in 1970-2010 summertime coastal California air temperatures:how HCN-corrections to COOP-data eliminated coastal-cooling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bornstein, R. D.; Ghebreegziabher, A. T.; Lebassi, B.; González, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    the highest COOP Tmax-values anytime (at each of its 28 sites) during the period from 1970-2010 shows three sub-areas, with a boundary-temperature of 340C (and with the following ranges): (a) cool coastal (27-340C), (b) cool mountain-tops (28-340C), and (c) in-between hot-area (34-400C). The spatial distribution of the trends in these extreme Tmax-values show decreases up to -0.80C/dec in the coastal cooling areas and increases up to 0.60C/dec in the inland and mountain warming areas. Note that these trends are larger than the monthly-averaged Tmax-trends (about ±0.30C/dec) in Lebassi et al.

  17. Tree-ring derived Little Ice Age temperature trends from the central British Columbia Coast Mountains, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitman, Kara J.; Smith, Dan J.

    2012-11-01

    Most glaciers in the British Columbia Coast Mountains reached their maximum Holocene extent during the Little Ice Age. Early- and late-Little Ice Age intervals of expansion and retreat fluctuations describe a mass-balance response to changing climates. Although existing dendroclimatic records provide insights into these climatic fluctuations over the last 400 yr, their short durations prohibit evaluation of early-Little Ice Age climate variability. To extend the duration of these records, submerged coarse woody debris salvaged from a high-elevation lake was cross-dated to living chronologies. The resulting chronology provides the opportunity to reconstruct a regional June-July air-temperature anomaly record extending from AD 1225 to 2010. The reconstruction shows that the intervals AD 1350-1420, 1475-1550, 1625-1700 and 1830-1940 characterized distinct periods of below-average June-July temperature followed by periods of above-average temperature. Our reconstruction provides the first annually resolved insights into high-elevation climates spanning the Little Ice Age in this region and indicates that Little Ice Age moraine stabilization corresponds to persistent intervals of warmer-than-average temperatures. We conclude that coarse woody debris submerged in high-elevation lakes has considerable potential for developing lengthy proxy climate records, and we recommend that researchers focus attention on this largely ignored paleoclimatic archive.

  18. Non-linear effects in a spherical convection experiments with temperature dependent fluid properties: Microgravity experiment and numerical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaussinger, F.; Futterer, B.; Egbers, C.

    2012-12-01

    Thermal convection is one important driving mechanism of flow in the earth mantle. Setting up a self-gravitating buoyancy in a spherical shell geometry is the limiting factor for laboratory experiments to analyze velocity flow structures and heat transport. The geophysical flow model 'GeoFlow II', which is located at the Columbus module on the ISS, realizes such a central gravity. Under microgravity conditions a central dielectrophoretic force field is applied to a fluid filled spherical annulus. In contrast to the first mission 'GeoFlow I' the electro-hydrodynamical volume expansion coefficient of the working fluid has a strong dependence on the temperature and leads to pattern, which are related to a strong temperature dependent viscosity of the fluid. Even though the oil's viscosity itself is temperature-dependent, too, the maximum of viscosity contrast is only up to 1.5. The optical measurement of the fluid flow is based on the Wollaston shearing interferometry, since the on orbit setup avoids the use of measurement particles. This technique leads to fringe patterns. Simulations with RESPECT and GAIAA tend to verify the experimentally observed patterns by different numerical models.

  19. Gradient-driven flux-tube simulations of ion temperature gradient turbulence close to the non-linear threshold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peeters, A. G.; Rath, F.; Buchholz, R.; Camenen, Y.; Candy, J.; Casson, F. J.; Grosshauser, S. R.; Hornsby, W. A.; Strintzi, D.; Weikl, A.

    2016-08-01

    It is shown that Ion Temperature Gradient turbulence close to the threshold exhibits a long time behaviour, with smaller heat fluxes at later times. This reduction is connected with the slow growth of long wave length zonal flows, and consequently, the numerical dissipation on these flows must be sufficiently small. Close to the nonlinear threshold for turbulence generation, a relatively small dissipation can maintain a turbulent state with a sizeable heat flux, through the damping of the zonal flow. Lowering the dissipation causes the turbulence, for temperature gradients close to the threshold, to be subdued. The heat flux then does not go smoothly to zero when the threshold is approached from above. Rather, a finite minimum heat flux is obtained below which no fully developed turbulent state exists. The threshold value of the temperature gradient length at which this finite heat flux is obtained is up to 30% larger compared with the threshold value obtained by extrapolating the heat flux to zero, and the cyclone base case is found to be nonlinearly stable. Transport is subdued when a fully developed staircase structure in the E × B shearing rate forms. Just above the threshold, an incomplete staircase develops, and transport is mediated by avalanche structures which propagate through the marginally stable regions.

  20. Finite Element Based Stress Analysis of Graphite Component in High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor Core Using Linear and Nonlinear Irradiation Creep Models

    SciTech Connect

    Mohanty, Subhasish; Majumdar, Saurindranath

    2015-01-01

    Irradiation creep plays a major role in the structural integrity of the graphite components in high temperature gas cooled reactors. Finite element procedures combined with a suitable irradiation creep model can be used to simulate the time-integrated structural integrity of complex shapes, such as the reactor core graphite reflector and fuel bricks. In the present work a comparative study was undertaken to understand the effect of linear and nonlinear irradiation creep on results of finite element based stress analysis. Numerical results were generated through finite element simulations of a typical graphite reflector.

  1. Regional 20th Century Temperature Trends from Radiosondes and Reanalyses in the Arctic (60°N-90°N)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stickler, Alexander; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    We compare seasonal 20th century atmospheric temperature trends in the Arctic (60°N-90°N) from radiosonde observations (CHUAN, HadAT, IUK, RAOBCORE/RICH, RATPAC) and reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR (NNR), Twentieth Century reanalysis (20CR), CFSR, ERA-Interim, MERRA). Large differences are found between the magnitudes, vertical profiles of the temperature trends (even for time periods > 3 decades), and chronological sequences of bidecadal, regional warming and cooling periods in the reanalyses. Long term zonal mean vertical trend profiles from CHUAN and from the reanalyses reaching back to the time before the satellite era show an amplification of the tropospheric warming towards the surface in all seasons except in JJA for the periods 1901-99, 1948-99 and 1957-99. In 20CR, a very strong 20th century cooling trend compared to the other datasets is found between 150 and 200 hPa. The agreement of the vertical structure and temporal behaviour of regional, bidecadal trends in the long reanalyses for 11 regions in the Arctic with CHUAN is best on average for ERA-40, followed by a less good agreement with trends from NNR (especially vertical structure) and 20CR (vertical structure and temporal behaviour). ERA-40 performs best for the NE Atlantic, Karelia, the SE Canadian Arctic, Alaska, and Central Siberia, and less favourably in the NW Canadian Arctic, E Siberia, W Siberia, and Novaya Zemlya. NNR agreement with CHUAN is significantly worse than in ERA-40 for the NE Atlantic, SE Canadian Arctic, SW Central Siberia, and E Central Siberia. 20CR performance is generally worse than that of ERA-40 and NNR, particularly for Karelia, the SE Canadian Arctic, Novaya Zemlya, W Siberia, and Central Siberia. For the more recent but shorter reanalyses, the internal agreement is generally very high, and results are close to CHUAN, ERA-40 and NNR. A comparison of CHUAN with the other radiosonde datasets is only possible for Alaska, E Central Siberia, NE Atlantic and NE Central Siberia

  2. Research and development program for non-linear structural modeling with advanced time-temperature dependent constitutive relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, K. P.

    1981-01-01

    Results of a 20-month research and development program for nonlinear structural modeling with advanced time-temperature constitutive relationships are reported. The program included: (1) the evaluation of a number of viscoplastic constitutive models in the published literature; (2) incorporation of three of the most appropriate constitutive models into the MARC nonlinear finite element program; (3) calibration of the three constitutive models against experimental data using Hastelloy-X material; and (4) application of the most appropriate constitutive model to a three dimensional finite element analysis of a cylindrical combustor liner louver test specimen to establish the capability of the viscoplastic model to predict component structural response.

  3. Intercomparison of CMIP5 and CMIP3 simulations of the 20th century maximum and minimum temperatures over India and detection of climatic trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonali, P.; Kumar, D. Nagesh; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact assessment has become one of the most important subjects of the research community because of the recent increase in frequency of extreme events and changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of climate. This paper analyses the ability of 46 coupled climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP5 and CMIP3). The performance of each climate model was assessed based on its skills in simulating the current seasonal cycles (monthly) of both maximum temperature and minimum temperature (Tmax, Tmin) over India. The performance measures such as coefficient of correlation (Skill_r), root mean square error (Skill_rmse), and the skill in simulating the observed probability density function (Skill_s) are mainly employed for evaluation of the simulated monthly seasonal cycle. A new metric called Skill_All which is an intersection of the above three metrics has been defined for the first time. A notable enhancement of Skill_All for CMIP5 vis-a-vis CMIP3 is observed. Further, three best CMIP5 models each for Tmax and Tmin were selected. The methodology employed in this study for model assessment is implemented for the first time for India, which establishes a robust foundation for the climate impact assessment study. The seasonal trends in Tmax and Tmin were analyzed over all the temperature homogenous regions of India for different time slots during the 20th century. Significant trends in Tmin can be seen during most of the seasons over the entire Indian region during last four decades. This establishes the signature of climate change over most parts of India.

  4. Linear Chains of Magnetic Ions Stacked with Variable Distance: Ferromagnetic Ordering with a Curie Temperature above 20 K.

    PubMed

    Friedländer, Stefan; Liu, Jinxuan; Addicoat, Matt; Petkov, Petko; Vankova, Nina; Rüger, Robert; Kuc, Agnieszka; Guo, Wei; Zhou, Wencai; Lukose, Binit; Wang, Zhengbang; Weidler, Peter G; Pöppl, Andreas; Ziese, Michael; Heine, Thomas; Wöll, Christof

    2016-10-01

    We have studied the magnetic properties of the SURMOF-2 series of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). Contrary to bulk MOF-2 crystals, where Cu(2+) ions form paddlewheels and are antiferromagnetically coupled, in this case the Cu(2+) ions are connected via carboxylate groups in a zipper-like fashion. This unusual coupling of the spin 1/2 ions within the resulting one-dimensional chains is found to stabilize a low-temperature, ferromagnetic (FM) phase. In contrast to other ordered 1D systems, no strong magnetic fields are needed to induce the ferromagnetism. The magnetic coupling constants describing the interaction between the individual metal ions have been determined in SQUID experiments. They are fully consistent with the results of ab initio DFT electronic structure calculations. The theoretical results allow the unusual magnetic behavior of this exotic, yet easy-to-fabricate, material to be described in a detailed fashion. PMID:27599895

  5. Temperature and non-linear response of cantilever-type mechanical oscillators used in atomic force microscopes with interferometric detection

    SciTech Connect

    Fläschner, G.; Ruschmeier, K.; Schwarz, A. Wiesendanger, R.; Bakhtiari, M. R.; Thorwart, M.

    2015-03-23

    The sensitivity of atomic force microscopes is fundamentally limited by the cantilever temperature, which can be, in principle, determined by measuring its thermal spectrum and applying the equipartition theorem. However, the mechanical response can be affected by the light field inside the cavity of a Fabry-Perot interferometer due to light absorption, radiation pressure, photothermal forces, and laser noise. By evaluating the optomechanical Hamiltonian, we are able to explain the peculiar distance dependence of the mechanical quality factor as well as the appearance of thermal spectra with symmetrical Lorentzian as well as asymmetrical Fano line shapes. Our results can be applied to any type of mechanical oscillator in an interferometer-based detection system.

  6. Linear Chains of Magnetic Ions Stacked with Variable Distance: Ferromagnetic Ordering with a Curie Temperature above 20 K.

    PubMed

    Friedländer, Stefan; Liu, Jinxuan; Addicoat, Matt; Petkov, Petko; Vankova, Nina; Rüger, Robert; Kuc, Agnieszka; Guo, Wei; Zhou, Wencai; Lukose, Binit; Wang, Zhengbang; Weidler, Peter G; Pöppl, Andreas; Ziese, Michael; Heine, Thomas; Wöll, Christof

    2016-10-01

    We have studied the magnetic properties of the SURMOF-2 series of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). Contrary to bulk MOF-2 crystals, where Cu(2+) ions form paddlewheels and are antiferromagnetically coupled, in this case the Cu(2+) ions are connected via carboxylate groups in a zipper-like fashion. This unusual coupling of the spin 1/2 ions within the resulting one-dimensional chains is found to stabilize a low-temperature, ferromagnetic (FM) phase. In contrast to other ordered 1D systems, no strong magnetic fields are needed to induce the ferromagnetism. The magnetic coupling constants describing the interaction between the individual metal ions have been determined in SQUID experiments. They are fully consistent with the results of ab initio DFT electronic structure calculations. The theoretical results allow the unusual magnetic behavior of this exotic, yet easy-to-fabricate, material to be described in a detailed fashion.

  7. An extended linear scaling method for downscaling temperature and its implication in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan, and India, using CMIP5 GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmood, Rashid; JIA, Shaofeng

    2016-08-01

    In this study, the linear scaling method used for the downscaling of temperature was extended from monthly scaling factors to daily scaling factors (SFs) to improve the daily variations in the corrected temperature. In the original linear scaling (OLS), mean monthly SFs are used to correct the future data, but mean daily SFs are used to correct the future data in the extended linear scaling (ELS) method. The proposed method was evaluated in the Jhelum River basin for the period 1986-2000, using the observed maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of 18 climate stations and the simulated Tmax and Tmin of five global climate models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2G, NorESM1-ME, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and CanESM2), and the method was also compared with OLS to observe the improvement. Before the evaluation of ELS, these GCMs were also evaluated using their raw data against the observed data for the same period (1986-2000). Four statistical indicators, i.e., error in mean, error in standard deviation, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient, were used for the evaluation process. The evaluation results with GCMs' raw data showed that GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5 performed better than other GCMs according to all the indicators but with unsatisfactory results that confine their direct application in the basin. Nevertheless, after the correction with ELS, a noticeable improvement was observed in all the indicators except correlation coefficient because this method only adjusts (corrects) the magnitude. It was also noticed that the daily variations of the observed data were better captured by the corrected data with ELS than OLS. Finally, the ELS method was applied for the downscaling of five GCMs' Tmax and Tmin for the period of 2041-2070 under RCP8.5 in the Jhelum basin. The results showed that the basin would face hotter climate in the future relative to the present climate, which may result in increasing water requirements in public, industrial, and agriculture

  8. Seasonal trend of photosynthetic parameters and stomatal conductance of blue oak (Quercus douglasii) under prolonged summer drought and high temperature

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, L; Baldocchi, DD

    2003-09-01

    OAK-B135 Understanding seasonal changes in photosynthetic parameters and stomatal conductance is crucial for modeling long-term carbon uptake and energy fluxes of ecosystems. Gas exchange measurements of CO{sub 2} and light response curves on blue oak leaves (Quercus douglasii H. & A.) were conducted weekly throughout the growing season to study the seasonality of photosynthetic capacity (V{sub cmax}) and Ball-Berry slope (m) under prolonged summer drought and high temperature. A leaf photosynthetic model was used to determine V{sub cmax}. There was a pronounced seasonal pattern in V{sub cmax}. The maximum value of V{sub cmax}, 127 {micro}molm{sup -2} s{sup -1},was reached shortly after leaf expansion in early summer, when air temperature was moderate and soil water availability was high. Thereafter, V{sub cmax} declined as the soil water profile became depleted and the trees experienced extreme air temperatures, exceeding 40 C. The decline in V{sub cmax} was gradual in midsummer, however, despite extremely low predawn leaf water potentials ({Psi}{sub pd}, {approx} -4.0 MPa). Overall, temporal changes in V{sub cmax} were well correlated with changes in leaf nitrogen content. During spring leaf development, high rates of leaf dark respiration (R{sub d}, 5-6 {micro}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}) were observed. Once a leaf reached maturity, R{sub d} remained low, around 0.5 {micro}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}. In contrast to the strong seasonality of V{sub cmax}, m and marginal water cost per unit carbon gain ({partial_derivative}E/{partial_derivative}A) were relatively constant over the season, even when leaf {Psi}{sub pd} dropped to -6.8 MPa. The constancy of {partial_derivative}E/{partial_derivative}A suggests that stomata behaved optimally under severe water-stress conditions. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of modeling carbon and water vapor exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere.

  9. The Effect of Temperature and Increased Rainfall on Carbon Dioxide Exchange in a High Arctic Ecosystem: Improving Models and Testing Linearity of Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steltzer, H.; Welker, J.; Sullivan, P.

    2006-12-01

    Ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange determines the terrestrial flux of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere through the two component processes of photosynthesis and respiration. Temperature and water availability are dominant factors that regulate carbon dioxide exchange and ecosystem productivity across the globe. Yet, in many ecosystems, the complex interaction of temperature and water availability and their individual and combined effects on photosynthesis and respiration make it difficult to predict how climate change will affect carbon dioxide exchange. For example, climate warming can increase carbon dioxide uptake in wetter Arctic ecosystems, but leads to the loss of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere in drier Arctic ecosystems. Characterizing how temperature and water availability affect ecosystem carbon exchange in the Arctic is essential to determine whether the rate of climate warming could accelerate due to carbon dioxide losses from Arctic ecosystems. We conducted a multi-level warming experiment that included control plots and two- levels of warming in a widespread High Arctic ecosystem. Infrared lamps were used to warm the tundra during the growing season and rainfall was increased by 50 percent in control plots and the higher level warming treatment. Carbon dioxide exchange was measured using chamber techniques over several 24-hour periods during the growing season for three years and was resolved into the component fluxes. Climate and biophysical variables that affect carbon dioxide exchange rates were measured in coordination with these flux measurements. We chose to analyze the data from this experiment by fitting the data to light and temperature response functions for gross ecosystem photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration, respectively. Based on our sample size of 30 experimental plots (5 treatments x 6 replicates), we selected relatively simple models of carbon dioxide exchange to minimize overfitting, but considered linear and nonlinear models

  10. Trend and future of diesel engine: Development of high efficiency and low emission low temperature combustion diesel engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, R. J.; Yusoff, M. Z.; Palanisamy, K.

    2013-06-01

    Stringent emission policy has put automotive research & development on developing high efficiency and low pollutant power train. Conventional direct injection diesel engine with diffused flame has reached its limitation and has driven R&D to explore other field of combustion. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and homogeneous charge combustion ignition has been proven to be effective methods in decreasing combustion pollutant emission. Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) and Particulate Matter (PM) formation from combustion can be greatly suppressed. A review on each of method is covered to identify the condition and processes that result in these reductions. The critical parameters that allow such combustion to take place will be highlighted and serves as emphasis to the direction of developing future diesel engine system. This paper is written to explore potential of present numerical and experimental methods in optimizing diesel engine design through adoption of the new combustion technology.

  11. The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran

    PubMed Central

    HABIBI MOHRAZ, Majid; GHAHRI, Asghar; KARIMI, Mehrdad; GOLBABAEI, Farideh

    2016-01-01

    Background: The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran. Methods: The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test. Results: The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961–2009) has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran. Conclusion: Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person’s exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming. PMID:27648423

  12. The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran

    PubMed Central

    HABIBI MOHRAZ, Majid; GHAHRI, Asghar; KARIMI, Mehrdad; GOLBABAEI, Farideh

    2016-01-01

    Background: The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran. Methods: The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test. Results: The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961–2009) has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran. Conclusion: Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person’s exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming.

  13. Mann-Kendall trend of pollutants, temperature and humidity over an urban station of India with forecast verification using different ARIMA models.

    PubMed

    Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Dutta, Debashree

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of the present research is to identify the trends in the concentrations of few atmospheric pollutants and meteorological parameters over an urban station Kolkata (22° 32' N; 88° 20' E), India, during the period from 2002 to 2011 and subsequently develop models for precise forecast of the concentration of the pollutants and the meteorological parameters over the station Kolkata. The pollutants considered in this study are sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulates of size 10-μm diameters (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO) and tropospheric ozone (O3). The meteorological parameters considered are the surface temperature and relative humidity. The Mann-Kendall, non-parametric statistical analysis is implemented to observe the trends in the data series of the selected parameters. A time series approach with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling is used to provide daily forecast of the parameters with precision. ARIMA models of different categories; ARIMA (1, 1, 1), ARIMA (0, 2, 2) and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) are considered and the skill of each model is estimated and compared in forecasting the concentration of the atmospheric pollutants and meteorological parameters. The results of the study reveal that the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) is the best statistical model for forecasting the daily concentration of pollutants as well as the meteorological parameters over Kolkata. The result is validated with the observation of 2012.

  14. Mann-Kendall trend of pollutants, temperature and humidity over an urban station of India with forecast verification using different ARIMA models.

    PubMed

    Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Dutta, Debashree

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of the present research is to identify the trends in the concentrations of few atmospheric pollutants and meteorological parameters over an urban station Kolkata (22° 32' N; 88° 20' E), India, during the period from 2002 to 2011 and subsequently develop models for precise forecast of the concentration of the pollutants and the meteorological parameters over the station Kolkata. The pollutants considered in this study are sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulates of size 10-μm diameters (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO) and tropospheric ozone (O3). The meteorological parameters considered are the surface temperature and relative humidity. The Mann-Kendall, non-parametric statistical analysis is implemented to observe the trends in the data series of the selected parameters. A time series approach with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling is used to provide daily forecast of the parameters with precision. ARIMA models of different categories; ARIMA (1, 1, 1), ARIMA (0, 2, 2) and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) are considered and the skill of each model is estimated and compared in forecasting the concentration of the atmospheric pollutants and meteorological parameters. The results of the study reveal that the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) is the best statistical model for forecasting the daily concentration of pollutants as well as the meteorological parameters over Kolkata. The result is validated with the observation of 2012. PMID:24705814

  15. Non-linear thermal evolution of the crystal structure and phase transitions of LaFeO{sub 3} investigated by high temperature X-ray diffraction

    SciTech Connect

    Selbach, Sverre M.; Tolchard, Julian R.; Fossdal, Anita; Grande, Tor

    2012-12-15

    The crystal structure, anisotropic thermal expansion and structural phase transition of the perovskite LaFeO{sub 3} has been studied by high-temperature X-ray diffraction from room temperature to 1533 K. The structural evolution of the orthorhombic phase with space group Pbnm and the rhombohedral phase with R3{sup Macron }c structure of LaFeO{sub 3} is reported in terms of lattice parameters, thermal expansion coefficients, atomic positions, octahedral rotations and polyhedral volumes. Non-linear lattice expansion across the antiferromagnetic to paramagnetic transition of LaFeO{sub 3} at T{sub N}=735 K was compared to the corresponding behavior of the ferroelectric antiferromagnet BiFeO{sub 3} to gain insight to the magnetoelectric coupling in BiFeO{sub 3}, which is also multiferroic. The first order phase transition of LaFeO{sub 3} from Pbnm to R3{sup Macron }c was observed at 1228{+-}9 K, and a subsequent transition to Pm3{sup Macron }m was extrapolated to occur at 2140{+-}30 K. The stability of the Pbnm and R3{sup Macron }c polymorphs of LaFeO{sub 3} is discussed in terms of the competing enthalpy and entropy of the two crystal polymorphs and the thermal evolution of the polyhedral volume ratio V{sub A}/V{sub B}. - Graphical abstract: Aniostropic thermal evolution of the lattice parameters and phase transition of LaFeO{sub 3}. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The crystal structure of LaFeO{sub 3} is studied by HTXRD from RT to 1533 K. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A non-linear expansion across the Neel temperature is observed for LaFeO{sub 3}. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ratio V{sub A}/V{sub B} is used to rationalize the thermal evolution of the structure.

  16. Exploring C-water-temperature interactions and non-linearities in soils through developments in process-based models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esteban Moyano, Fernando; Vasilyeva, Nadezda; Menichetti, Lorenzo

    2016-04-01

    Soil carbon models developed over the last couple of decades are limited in their capacity to accurately predict the magnitudes and temporal variations in observed carbon fluxes and stocks. New process-based models are now emerging that attempt to address the shortcomings of their more simple, empirical counterparts. While a spectrum of ideas and hypothetical mechanisms are finding their way into new models, the addition of only a few processes known to significantly affect soil carbon (e.g. enzymatic decomposition, adsorption, Michaelis-Menten kinetics) has shown the potential to resolve a number of previous model-data discrepancies (e.g. priming, Birch effects). Through model-data validation, such models are a means of testing hypothetical mechanisms. In addition, they can lead to new insights into what soil carbon pools are and how they respond to external drivers. In this study we develop a model of soil carbon dynamics based on enzymatic decomposition and other key features of process based models, i.e. simulation of carbon in particulate, soluble and adsorbed states, as well as enzyme and microbial components. Here we focus on understanding how moisture affects C decomposition at different levels, both directly (e.g. by limiting diffusion) or through interactions with other components. As the medium where most reactions and transport take place, water is central en every aspect of soil C dynamics. We compare results from a number of alternative models with experimental data in order to test different processes and parameterizations. Among other observations, we try to understand: 1. typical moisture response curves and associated temporal changes, 2. moisture-temperature interactions, and 3. diffusion effects under changing C concentrations. While the model aims at being a process based approach and at simulating fluxes at short time scales, it remains a simplified representation using the same inputs as classical soil C models, and is thus potentially

  17. Century-scale trends and seasonality in pH and temperature for shallow zones of the Bering Sea.

    PubMed

    Fietzke, Jan; Ragazzola, Federica; Halfar, Jochen; Dietze, Heiner; Foster, Laura C; Hansteen, Thor Henrik; Eisenhauer, Anton; Steneck, Robert S

    2015-03-10

    No records exist to evaluate long-term pH dynamics in high-latitude oceans, which have the greatest probability of rapid acidification from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We reconstructed both seasonal variability and anthropogenic change in seawater pH and temperature by using laser ablation high-resolution 2D images of stable boron isotopes (δ(11)B) on a long-lived coralline alga that grew continuously through the 20th century. Analyses focused on four multiannual growth segments. We show a long-term decline of 0.08 ± 0.01 pH units between the end of the 19th and 20th century, which is consistent with atmospheric CO2 records. Additionally, a strong seasonal cycle (∼ 0.22 pH units) is observed and interpreted as episodic annual pH increases caused by the consumption of CO2 during strong algal (kelp) growth in spring and summer. The rate of acidification intensifies from -0.006 ± 0.007 pH units per decade (between 1920s and 1960s) to -0.019 ± 0.009 pH units per decade (between 1960s and 1990s), and the episodic pH increases show a continuous shift to earlier times of the year throughout the centennial record. This is indicative of ecosystem shifts in shallow water algal productivity in this high-latitude habitat resulting from warming and acidification.

  18. Century-scale trends and seasonality in pH and temperature for shallow zones of the Bering Sea

    PubMed Central

    Fietzke, Jan; Ragazzola, Federica; Halfar, Jochen; Dietze, Heiner; Foster, Laura C.; Hansteen, Thor Henrik; Eisenhauer, Anton; Steneck, Robert S.

    2015-01-01

    No records exist to evaluate long-term pH dynamics in high-latitude oceans, which have the greatest probability of rapid acidification from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We reconstructed both seasonal variability and anthropogenic change in seawater pH and temperature by using laser ablation high-resolution 2D images of stable boron isotopes (δ11B) on a long-lived coralline alga that grew continuously through the 20th century. Analyses focused on four multiannual growth segments. We show a long-term decline of 0.08 ± 0.01 pH units between the end of the 19th and 20th century, which is consistent with atmospheric CO2 records. Additionally, a strong seasonal cycle (∼0.22 pH units) is observed and interpreted as episodic annual pH increases caused by the consumption of CO2 during strong algal (kelp) growth in spring and summer. The rate of acidification intensifies from –0.006 ± 0.007 pH units per decade (between 1920s and 1960s) to –0.019 ± 0.009 pH units per decade (between 1960s and 1990s), and the episodic pH increases show a continuous shift to earlier times of the year throughout the centennial record. This is indicative of ecosystem shifts in shallow water algal productivity in this high-latitude habitat resulting from warming and acidification. PMID:25713385

  19. Modelling the Relationship Between Land Surface Temperature and Landscape Patterns of Land Use Land Cover Classification Using Multi Linear Regression Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernales, A. M.; Antolihao, J. A.; Samonte, C.; Campomanes, F.; Rojas, R. J.; dela Serna, A. M.; Silapan, J.

    2016-06-01

    The threat of the ailments related to urbanization like heat stress is very prevalent. There are a lot of things that can be done to lessen the effect of urbanization to the surface temperature of the area like using green roofs or planting trees in the area. So land use really matters in both increasing and decreasing surface temperature. It is known that there is a relationship between land use land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST). Quantifying this relationship in terms of a mathematical model is very important so as to provide a way to predict LST based on the LULC alone. This study aims to examine the relationship between LST and LULC as well as to create a model that can predict LST using class-level spatial metrics from LULC. LST was derived from a Landsat 8 image and LULC classification was derived from LiDAR and Orthophoto datasets. Class-level spatial metrics were created in FRAGSTATS with the LULC and LST as inputs and these metrics were analysed using a statistical framework. Multi linear regression was done to create models that would predict LST for each class and it was found that the spatial metric "Effective mesh size" was a top predictor for LST in 6 out of 7 classes. The model created can still be refined by adding a temporal aspect by analysing the LST of another farming period (for rural areas) and looking for common predictors between LSTs of these two different farming periods.

  20. The application of two-step linear temperature program to thermal analysis for monitoring the lipid induction of Nostoc sp. KNUA003 in large scale cultivation.

    PubMed

    Kang, Bongmun; Yoon, Ho-Sung

    2015-02-01

    Recently, microalgae was considered as a renewable energy for fuel production because its production is nonseasonal and may take place on nonarable land. Despite all of these advantages, microalgal oil production is significantly affected by environmental factors. Furthermore, the large variability remains an important problem in measurement of algae productivity and compositional analysis, especially, the total lipid content. Thus, there is considerable interest in accurate determination of total lipid content during the biotechnological process. For these reason, various high-throughput technologies were suggested for accurate measurement of total lipids contained in the microorganisms, especially oleaginous microalgae. In addition, more advanced technologies were employed to quantify the total lipids of the microalgae without a pretreatment. However, these methods are difficult to measure total lipid content in wet form microalgae obtained from large-scale production. In present study, the thermal analysis performed with two-step linear temeperature program was applied to measure heat evolved in temperature range from 310 to 351 °C of Nostoc sp. KNUA003 obtained from large-scale cultivation. And then, we examined the relationship between the heat evolved in 310-351 °C (HE) and total lipid content of the wet Nostoc cell cultivated in raceway. As a result, the linear relationship was determined between HE value and total lipid content of Nostoc sp. KNUA003. Particularly, there was a linear relationship of 98% between the HE value and the total lipid content of the tested microorganism. Based on this relationship, the total lipid content converted from the heat evolved of wet Nostoc sp. KNUA003 could be used for monitoring its lipid induction in large-scale cultivation.

  1. Dendroclimatic transfer functions revisited: Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period summer temperatures reconstructed using artificial neural networks and linear algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helama, S.; Makarenko, N. G.; Karimova, L. M.; Kruglun, O. A.; Timonen, M.; Holopainen, J.; Meriläinen, J.; Eronen, M.

    2009-03-01

    Tree-rings tell of past climates. To do so, tree-ring chronologies comprising numerous climate-sensitive living-tree and subfossil time-series need to be "transferred" into palaeoclimate estimates using transfer functions. The purpose of this study is to compare different types of transfer functions, especially linear and nonlinear algorithms. Accordingly, multiple linear regression (MLR), linear scaling (LSC) and artificial neural networks (ANN, nonlinear algorithm) were compared. Transfer functions were built using a regional tree-ring chronology and instrumental temperature observations from Lapland (northern Finland and Sweden). In addition, conventional MLR was compared with a hybrid model whereby climate was reconstructed separately for short- and long-period timescales prior to combining the bands of timescales into a single hybrid model. The fidelity of the different reconstructions was validated against instrumental climate data. The reconstructions by MLR and ANN showed reliable reconstruction capabilities over the instrumental period (AD 1802-1998). LCS failed to reach reasonable verification statistics and did not qualify as a reliable reconstruction: this was due mainly to exaggeration of the low-frequency climatic variance. Over this instrumental period, the reconstructed low-frequency amplitudes of climate variability were rather similar by MLR and ANN. Notably greater differences between the models were found over the actual reconstruction period (AD 802-1801). A marked temperature decline, as reconstructed by MLR, from the Medieval Warm Period (AD 931-1180) to the Little Ice Age (AD 1601-1850), was evident in all the models. This decline was approx. 0.5°C as reconstructed by MLR. Different ANN based palaeotemperatures showed simultaneous cooling of 0.2 to 0.5°C, depending on algorithm. The hybrid MLR did not seem to provide further benefit above conventional MLR in our sample. The robustness of the conventional MLR over the calibration

  2. Reconstructing Changes in Deep Ocean Temperature and Global Carbon Cycle during the Early Eocene Warming Trend: High-Resolution Benthic Stable Isotope Records from the SE Atlantic.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauretano, V.; Zachos, J. C.; Lourens, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    From the late Paleocene to the early Eocene, Earth's surface temperatures generally rose, resulting in an increase of at least 5°C in the deep ocean and culminating in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). This long-term warming was punctuated by a series of short-lived global warming events known as "hyperthermals", of which the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) represents the most extreme example. At least two other short-term episodes have been identified as hyperthermals: the ETM2 (or Elmo event) at about 53.7 Myr and the ETM3 (or X-event) at about 52.5 Myr. These transient events are marked by prominent carbon isotope excursions (CIEs), recorded in marine and continental sedimentary sequences and driven by fast and massive injections of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. Recently, evidence has indicated the presence of a regular series of hyperthermal events following the peak in temperatures of the EECO. However, continuous records are needed to investigate short- and long- term changes in the climate system thr