Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2009-01-01

Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 2: brominated flame retardants.

PubMed

Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Drimmie, Robert J; Muir, Derek C G; Letcher, Robert J

2013-09-01

Brominated flame retardants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Significant linear increases were found for sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (ΣPBDE), BDE100, BDE153, and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). Average increases of 5.0% per year (range: 2.9-7.6%/year) were found for the subadult polar bears. BDE47 and BDE99 concentrations did not show a significant linear trend over time, but rather a significant non-linear trend peaking between 2000 and 2004. The average ΣPBDE concentrations increased 2.3 fold from 25.0ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 15.3-34.7ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 58.5ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 43.6-73.4ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Analyses of δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes in hair revealed no clear linear temporal trends in trophic level or carbon source, respectively, and non-linear trends differed among sex and age groups. These increasing concentrations of organobromine contaminants contribute to complex organohalogen mixture, already causing health effects to the East Greenland polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-10-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Uncertainty in Detecting Trend: A New Criterion and Its Applications to Global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

2014-01-01

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

2016-01-01

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

Structural and lithologic study of northern coast ranges and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The pattern of linear systems within the project area has been extended into the western foothill belt of the Sierra Nevada. The chief pattern of linear features in the western Sierran foothill belt trends about N. 10 - 15 deg W., but in the vicinity of the Feather River the trend of the features abruptly changes to about N. 50-60 deg W and appears to be contiguous across the Sacramento Valley with a similar system of linear features in the Coast Ranges. The linear features in the Modoc Plateau and Klamath Mt. areas appear unrelated to the systems detected in the Coast Ranges of Sierran foothill belt. Although the change in trend of the Sierran structural features has been previously suggested and the interrelationship of the Klamath Mt. region with the northern Sierra Nevadas has been postulated, the data obtained from the ERTS-1 imagery strengthens these notions and provides for the first time evidence of a direct connection of the structural trends within the alluviated part of the Sacramento Valley. In addition rocks of Pleistocene and Holocene age are offset by some of the linear features seen on ERTS-1 imagery and hence may record the latest episode of geologic deformation in north-central California.

Linearity of Mid-Continent Kimberlite-Carbonatite Magmatism, USA: Slab-Edge Focus as Alternative to Hot-Spot Track

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duke, G. I.; Carlson, R. W.

2009-12-01

The fates of subducted oceanic slabs at depth in the mantle are not well known, but linear trends of unusual magmatic products such as kimberlites and carbonatites might be used to track their past existence within the mantle. A N40°W linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites, and rocks of kimberlitic affinity, from the Black Hills (WY-SD) to Alberta, was suggested to have been caused by upwelling mantle material focused directly above the western edge of the subducted Kula plate stalled in the transition zone, with a slab window or “tear” to the southwest (Duke, 2009). In contrast, a linear zone of similar magmas to the south (a southerly extension of this N40°W linear trend, from Kansas to Louisiana) has been proposed to represent a hot spot trace produced by a mantle plume (“Bermuda Hot Spot”). Ongoing studies of ages and geochemistry of alkalic rocks along the N40°W trend from Louisiana to Alberta provide increasing evidence for a slab-edge model as the cause of the linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites in the mid-continent. In addition, seismic tomography indicates that the torn Farallon slab currently is stalled in the transition zone below the mid-continent, and an older slab is within the lower mantle farther to the east (Sigloch et al., 2008). These seismic data were interpreted as revealing the presence of the western edge of the Farallon plate trending roughly N40°W. The slab edge as projected to the surface is parallel to, but slightly west of, the trend of kimberlites and carbonatites at the mid-continent. Recently published ages show no clear age progression for the magmatism and thus do not support a hot-spot hypothesis for the linear trend. The isotopic compositions of the alkalic rocks show a genetic similarity among more recent magmas along the trend. There are at least four main pulses of magmatism along the trend at 110-85, 67-64, 55-52, and less than 50 Ma. Kimberlites and carbonatites in the northern section of the N40°W trend are the youngest of the northern group, with ages of ~48 to ≤ 46 Ma. The southern portion of the trend contains the oldest alkalic magmatism in Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana, with kimberlites in Kansas and carbonatites in Arkansas. The 67-64 Ma magmatic (or “reheating”) pulse was recorded along the entire trend from Louisiana to northern Montana. Multiple slabs and/or slab segmentation, and irregular convection may account for multiple magmatic pulses, although the 67-64 Ma magmatism across the entire continent is difficult to explain. Importantly, kimberlites and carbonatites represent the most recent, or part of the most recent, magmatism along the N40°W trend. This correlates with a change in proportion of source composition with time, as indicated by increasing positive epsilon Nd and Hf, lower 87Sr/86Sr, and higher 207Pb/204Pb, 206/204Pb, and 208Pb/204Pb. Thus, in each area where there exist precise age and isotopic data, magmatism began with a component that was dominantly lithospheric, followed by increasing proportions of asthenospheric component with time, culminating with kimberlitic or carbonatite magmatism.

A high resolution model of linear trend in mass variations from DMT-2: Added value of accounting for coloured noise in GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahani, Hassan H.; Ditmar, Pavel; Inácio, Pedro; Didova, Olga; Gunter, Brian; Klees, Roland; Guo, Xiang; Guo, Jing; Sun, Yu; Liu, Xianglin; Zhao, Qile; Riva, Riccardo

2017-01-01

We present a high resolution model of the linear trend in the Earth's mass variations based on DMT-2 (Delft Mass Transport model, release 2). DMT-2 was produced primarily from K-Band Ranging (KBR) data of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). It comprises a time series of monthly solutions complete to spherical harmonic degree 120. A novel feature in its production was the accurate computation and incorporation of stochastic properties of coloured noise when processing KBR data. The unconstrained DMT-2 monthly solutions are used to estimate the linear trend together with a bias, as well as annual and semi-annual sinusoidal terms. The linear term is further processed with an anisotropic Wiener filter, which uses full noise and signal covariance matrices. Given the fact that noise in an unconstrained model of the trend is reduced substantially as compared to monthly solutions, the Wiener filter associated with the trend is much less aggressive compared to a Wiener filter applied to monthly solutions. Consequently, the trend estimate shows an enhanced spatial resolution. It allows signals in relatively small water bodies, such as Aral sea and Ladoga lake, to be detected. Over the ice sheets, it allows for a clear identification of signals associated with some outlet glaciers or their groups. We compare the obtained trend estimate with the ones from the CSR-RL05 model using (i) the same approach based on monthly noise covariance matrices and (ii) a commonly-used approach based on the DDK-filtered monthly solutions. We use satellite altimetry data as independent control data. The comparison demonstrates a high spatial resolution of the DMT-2 linear trend. We link this to the usage of high-accuracy monthly noise covariance matrices, which is due to an accurate computation and incorporation of coloured noise when processing KBR data. A preliminary comparison of the linear trend based on DMT-2 with that computed from GSFC_global_mascons_v01 reveals, among other, a high concentration of the signal along the coast for both models in areas like the ice sheets, Gulf of Alaska, and Iceland.

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications are presented in this standard. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. This document should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology: it generally connotes quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this document. The basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends along with relevant examples are presented.

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

1995-01-01

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1999-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming.

Changes in antibiotic usage and susceptibility in nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates following the introduction of ertapenem to hospital formulary.

PubMed

Graber, C J; Hutchings, C; Dong, F; Lee, W; Chung, J K; Tran, T

2012-01-01

There is concern that widespread usage of ertapenem may promote cross-resistance to other carbapenems. To analyse the impact that adding ertapenem to our hospital formulary had on usage of other broad-spectrum agents and on susceptibilities of nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates, we performed interrupted time-series analyses to determine the change in linear trend in antibiotic usage and change in mean proportion and linear trend of susceptibility pre- (March 2004-June 2005) and post- (July 2005-December 2008) ertapenem introduction. Usage of piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·0013) and ampicillin-sulbactam (P=0·035) declined post-ertapenem introduction. For Enterobacteriaceae, the mean proportion susceptible to ciprofloxacin (P=0·016) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·038) increased, while the linear trend in susceptibility significantly increased for cefepime (P=0·012) but declined for ceftriaxone (P=0·0032). For Pseudomonas, the mean proportion susceptible to cefepime (P=0·011) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·028) increased, as did the linear trend in susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (P=0·028). Notably, no significant changes in carbapenem susceptibility were observed.

An operational definition of a statistically meaningful trend.

PubMed

Bryhn, Andreas C; Dimberg, Peter H

2011-04-28

Linear trend analysis of time series is standard procedure in many scientific disciplines. If the number of data is large, a trend may be statistically significant even if data are scattered far from the trend line. This study introduces and tests a quality criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high statistical significance. The time series is divided into intervals and interval mean values are calculated. Thereafter, r(2) and p values are calculated from regressions concerning time and interval mean values. If r(2) ≥ 0.65 at p ≤ 0.05 in any of these regressions, then the trend is regarded as statistically meaningful. Out of ten investigated time series from different scientific disciplines, five displayed statistically meaningful trends. A Microsoft Excel application (add-in) was developed which can perform statistical meaningfulness tests and which may increase the operationality of the test. The presented method for distinguishing statistically meaningful trends should be reasonably uncomplicated for researchers with basic statistics skills and may thus be useful for determining which trends are worth analysing further, for instance with respect to causal factors. The method can also be used for determining which segments of a time trend may be particularly worthwhile to focus on.

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

PubMed

Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

2005-09-01

We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

This Standard presents descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. Use of this Standard is not mandatory; however, it should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend Analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology, but rather connotes, generally, quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this Standard. The document presents the basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends, together with relevant examples. A list of references provides additional sources of information.

Timeline trend profile and seasonal variations in nicotine present in ambient PM10 samples: A four year investigation from Delhi region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Shweta; Tandon, Ankit; Attri, Arun K.

2014-12-01

The detection of nicotine, an organic tracer for Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS), in the collected PM10 samples from Delhi region's ambient environment, in a appropriately designed investigation was initiated over four years (2006-2009) to: (1) Comprehend seasonal and inter-annual variations in the nicotine present in PM10; (2) Extract regression based linear trend profile manifested by nicotine in PM10; (3) Determine the non-linear trend timeline from the nicotine data, and compare it with the obtained linear trend; (4) Suggest the possible use of the designed experiment and analysis to have a qualitative appraisal of Tobacco Smoking activity in the sampling region. The PM10 samples were collected in a monthly time-series sequence at a known receptor site. Quantitative estimates of nicotine (ng m-3) were made by using a Thermal Desorption Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (TD-GC/MS). The annual average concentrations of nicotine (ng m-3) were 516 ± 302 (2008) > 494 ± 301 (2009) > 438 ± 250 (2007) > 325 ± 149 (2006). The estimated linear trend of 5.4 ng m-3 month-1 corresponded to 16.3% per annum increase in the PM10 associated nicotine. The industrial production of India's tobacco index normalized to Delhi region's consumption, pegged an increase at 10.5% per annum over this period.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, L.M.; Clapp, N.E.; Day, C.S.; Lawkins, W.F.

1999-01-12

This research discloses methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming. 76 figs.

The increase in symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood among Icelandic adolescents: time trend between 2006 and 2016.

PubMed

Thorisdottir, Ingibjorg E; Asgeirsdottir, Bryndis B; Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig; Allegrante, John P; Sigfusdottir, Inga D

2017-10-01

Both research and popular media reports suggest that adolescent mental health has been deteriorating across societies with advanced economies. This study sought to describe the trends in self-reported symptoms of depressed mood and anxiety among Icelandic adolescents. Data for this study come from repeated, cross-sectional, population-based school surveys of 43 482 Icelandic adolescents in 9th and 10th grade, with six waves of pooled data from 2006 to 2016. We used analysis of variance, linear regression and binomial logistic regression to examine trends in symptom scores of anxiety and depressed mood over time. Gender differences in trends of high symptoms were also tested for interactions. Linear regression analysis showed a significant linear increase over the course of the study period in mean symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood for girls only; however, symptoms of anxiety among boys decreased. The proportion of adolescents reporting high depressive symptoms increased by 1.6% for boys and 6.8% for girls; the proportion of those reporting high anxiety symptoms increased by 1.3% for boys and 8.6% for girls. Over the study period, the odds for reporting high depressive symptoms and high anxiety symptoms were significantly higher for both genders. Girls were more likely to report high symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood than boys. Self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood have increased over time among Icelandic adolescents. Our findings suggest that future research needs to look beyond mean changes and examine the trends among those adolescents who report high symptoms of emotional distress. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormick, M. P.; Veiga, Robert E.; Chu, William P.

1992-01-01

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.

Economic preferences and fast food consumption in US adults: Insights from behavioral economics.

PubMed

Shuval, Kerem; Stoklosa, Michal; Pachucki, Mark C; Yaroch, Amy L; Drope, Jeffrey; Harding, Matthew

2016-12-01

To examine the relationship between economic time preferences and frequency of fast food and full-service restaurant consumption among U.S. adults. Participants included 5871U.S. adults who responded to a survey conducted in 2011 pertaining to the lifestyle behaviors of families and the social context of these behaviors. The primary independent variable was a measure of time preferences, an intertemporal choice assessing delay discounting. This was elicited via responses to preferences for an immediate dollar amount or a larger sum in 30 (30-day time horizon) or 60days (60-day time horizon). Outcomes were the frequency of fast food and full-service restaurant consumption. Ordered logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between time preferences and food consumption while adjusting for covariates (e.g. socio-demographics). Multivariable analysis revealed that higher future time preferences were significantly related to less frequent fast food intake for both the 30- and 60-day time horizon variables (P for linear trend <0.05; both). Notably, participants with the highest future time preference were significantly less likely to consume fast food than those with very low future time preferences (30-day: OR=0.74, 95%CI: 0.62-0.89; and 60-day: OR=0.86, 95%CI: 0.74-1.00). In comparison, higher future time preferences were not significantly associated with full-service restaurant intake (30-day: p for linear trend=0.73; 60-day: p for linear trend=0.83). Higher future time preferences were related to a lower frequency of fast food consumption. Utilizing concepts from behavioral economics (e.g. pre-commitment contracts) to facilitate more healthful eating is warranted using experimental studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Step responses of a torsional system with multiple clearances: Study of vibro-impact phenomenon using experimental and computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oruganti, Pradeep Sharma; Krak, Michael D.; Singh, Rajendra

2018-01-01

Recently Krak and Singh (2017) proposed a scientific experiment that examined vibro-impacts in a torsional system under a step down excitation and provided preliminary measurements and limited non-linear model studies. A major goal of this article is to extend the prior work with a focus on the examination of vibro-impact phenomena observed under step responses in a torsional system with one, two or three controlled clearances. First, new measurements are made at several locations with a higher sampling frequency. Measured angular accelerations are examined in both time and time-frequency domains. Minimal order non-linear models of the experiment are successfully constructed, using piecewise linear stiffness and Coulomb friction elements; eight cases of the generic system are examined though only three are experimentally studied. Measured and predicted responses for single and dual clearance configurations exhibit double sided impacts and time varying periods suggest softening trends under the step down torque. Non-linear models are experimentally validated by comparing results with new measurements and with those previously reported. Several metrics are utilized to quantify and compare the measured and predicted responses (including peak to peak accelerations). Eigensolutions and step responses of the corresponding linearized models are utilized to better understand the nature of the non-linear dynamic system. Finally, the effect of step amplitude on the non-linear responses is examined for several configurations, and hardening trends are observed in the torsional system with three clearances.

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of a New Law to Reduce the Legal Blood Alcohol Concentration Limit - A Poisson Regression Analysis and Descriptive Approach.

PubMed

Nistal-Nuño, Beatriz

2017-03-31

In Chile, a new law introduced in March 2012 lowered the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for impaired drivers from 0.1% to 0.08% and the BAC limit for driving under the influence of alcohol from 0.05% to 0.03%, but its effectiveness remains uncertain. The goal of this investigation was to evaluate the effects of this enactment on road traffic injuries and fatalities in Chile. A retrospective cohort study. Data were analyzed using a descriptive and a Generalized Linear Models approach, type of Poisson regression, to analyze deaths and injuries in a series of additive Log-Linear Models accounting for the effects of law implementation, month influence, a linear time trend and population exposure. A review of national databases in Chile was conducted from 2003 to 2014 to evaluate the monthly rates of traffic fatalities and injuries associated to alcohol and in total. It was observed a decrease by 28.1 percent in the monthly rate of traffic fatalities related to alcohol as compared to before the law (P<0.001). Adding a linear time trend as a predictor, the decrease was by 20.9 percent (P<0.001).There was a reduction in the monthly rate of traffic injuries related to alcohol by 10.5 percent as compared to before the law (P<0.001). Adding a linear time trend as a predictor, the decrease was by 24.8 percent (P<0.001). Positive results followed from this new 'zero-tolerance' law implemented in 2012 in Chile. Chile experienced a significant reduction in alcohol-related traffic fatalities and injuries, being a successful public health intervention.

Is Perruchet's dissociation between eyeblink conditioned responding and outcome expectancy evidence for two learning systems?

PubMed

Weidemann, Gabrielle; Tangen, Jason M; Lovibond, Peter F; Mitchell, Christopher J

2009-04-01

P. Perruchet (1985b) showed a double dissociation of conditioned responses (CRs) and expectancy for an airpuff unconditioned stimulus (US) in a 50% partial reinforcement schedule in human eyeblink conditioning. In the Perruchet effect, participants show an increase in CRs and a concurrent decrease in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of reinforced trials; conversely, participants show a decrease in CRs and a concurrent increase in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of nonreinforced trials. Three eyeblink conditioning experiments investigated whether the linear trend in eyeblink CRs in the Perruchet effect is a result of changes in associative strength of the conditioned stimulus (CS), US sensitization, or learning the precise timing of the US. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is not the result of US sensitization. Experiment 3 showed that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is present with both a fixed and a variable CS-US interval and so is not the result of learning the precise timing of the US. The results are difficult to reconcile with a single learning process model of associative learning in which expectancy mediates CRs. Copyright (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Life satisfaction and age: Dealing with underidentification in age-period-cohort models.

PubMed

de Ree, Joppe; Alessie, Rob

2011-07-01

Recent literature typically finds a U shaped relationship between life satisfaction and age. Age profiles, however, are not identified without forcing arbitrary restrictions on the cohort and/or time profiles. In this paper we report what can be identified about the relationship between life satisfaction and age without applying such restrictions. Also, we identify the restrictions needed to conclude that life satisfaction is U shaped in age. For the case of Germany, we find that the relationship between life satisfaction and age is indeed U shaped, but only under the untestable condition that the linear time trend is negative and that the linear trend across birth cohorts is practically flat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Apparatus and method for epileptic seizure detection using non-linear techniques

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1998-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically detecting epileptic seizures by monitoring and analyzing brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; determining that one or more trends in the nonlinear measures indicate a seizure, and providing notification of seizure occurrence.

Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), p<0.0001) while rates among women decreased (EAPC=-0.01% (95% CI:-0.02 to -0.002), p=0.03). APC analysis revealed significant non-linear positive period and cohort effects in men, with higher effects among younger men (25-49 years). Non-significant increasing trends were observed in younger women (25-49 years). APC analyses from the Mumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Structural and lithologic study of northern California Coast Range and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator); Steele, W. C.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Photgeologic examination of repetitive multispectral ERTS-1 imagery of Northern California has disclosed several systems of linear features which may be important for the interpretation of the structural history of California. They are separated from an orthogonal system of linears in the Klamath Mts. by a set of discontinuous southeast-trending linear features (the Mendocino system) which is traceable from the Pacific Coast, at Cape Mendocino, into the eastern foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Within the Sierra Nevada, the Mendocino system separates the north-trending Sierran system from a set of linears characteristic of the Modoc Plateau. With minor exception, little overlap exists among the systems which suggests a decipherable chronology and evolutionary history for the region. The San Andres system of linears appears to truncate or co-exist with most of the other systems in the northern Coast Ranges. The Mendocino system truncates the Klamath, Sierran, and Modoc systems. The Sierran system may represent fundamental and long-persisting pre-late Paleozoic zones of crustal weakness which have been reactivated from time to time. The Mendocino system was possibly developed in early Mesozoic and is important to the structural framework of Northern California.

Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

PubMed

Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-02-01

The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2016-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

Apparatus and method for epileptic seizure detection using non-linear techniques

DOEpatents

Hively, L.M.; Clapp, N.E.; Daw, C.S.; Lawkins, W.F.

1998-04-28

Methods and apparatus are disclosed for automatically detecting epileptic seizures by monitoring and analyzing brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; determining that one or more trends in the nonlinear measures indicate a seizure, and providing notification of seizure occurrence. 76 figs.

The intra-day dynamics of affect, self-esteem, tiredness, and suicidality in Major Depression.

PubMed

Crowe, Eimear; Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Carroll, Susan; Malone, Kevin M

2018-02-21

Despite growing interest in the temporal dynamics of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), we know little about the intra-day fluctuations of key symptom constructs. In a study of momentary experience, the Experience Sampling Method captured the within-day dynamics of negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, passive suicidality, and tiredness across clinical MDD (N= 31) and healthy control groups (N= 33). Ten symptom measures were taken per day over 6 days (N= 2231 observations). Daily dynamics were modeled via intra-day time-trends, variability, and instability in symptoms. MDD participants showed significantly increased variability and instability in negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, and suicidality. Significantly different time-trends were found in positive affect (increased diurnal variation and an inverted U-shaped pattern in MDD, compared to a positive linear trend in controls) and tiredness (decreased diurnal variation in MDD). In the MDD group only, passive suicidality displayed a negative linear trend and self-esteem displayed a quadratic inverted U trend. MDD and control participants thus showed distinct dynamic profiles in all symptoms measured. As well as the overall severity of symptoms, intra-day dynamics appear to define the experience of MDD symptoms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

Trend of brain tumor incidence by histological subtypes in Japan: estimation from the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan, 1973-1993.

PubMed

Kaneko, Satoshi; Nomura, Kazuhiro; Yoshimura, Takesumi; Yamaguchi, Naohito

2002-10-01

In order to estimate the risk of primary brain tumor (PBT), we attempted to estimate the national incidence rates of PBT by histological subtypes using the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan (BTR). The number of deaths due to PBT in a certain year is the sum of the deaths among patients diagnosed in different years. Registered cases in the BTR represent incident cases of PBT in the whole country multiplied by a cover rate. The cover rate is defined as the proportions of PBT cases that the Registry counts in relation to all the cases in the country in a given year. If the survival experience among the registered cases represents the survival experience of all cases, then the rate of registered deaths represents all deaths due to PBT in Japan. By this logic, we estimated the cover rates and incidence rates from 1973 to 1993 using the BTR and National Vital Statistics data. Our estimates showed three patterns of time trends: (1) a gradual linear increasing trend before the 1980s followed by a plateau (total PBT, gliomas, meningioma, and hemangioblastoma), (2) a trend with a step-up increase in the 1980s followed by a plateau (germ cell tumor and pituitary tumor), and (3) a linear increasing trend throughout the observation period with no plateau (malignant lymphoma and neurinoma). Furthermore, obvious sex differences in time trends were observed in rates of meningioma, germ cell tumor, and pituitary tumor. The results of this study demonstrated several distinctive patterns in time trends, which give us insight into the possible etiologies of brain tumors. Further epidemiological study is needed to elucidate these findings.

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

Run charts revisited: a simulation study of run chart rules for detection of non-random variation in health care processes.

PubMed

Anhøj, Jacob; Olesen, Anne Vingaard

2014-01-01

A run chart is a line graph of a measure plotted over time with the median as a horizontal line. The main purpose of the run chart is to identify process improvement or degradation, which may be detected by statistical tests for non-random patterns in the data sequence. We studied the sensitivity to shifts and linear drifts in simulated processes using the shift, crossings and trend rules for detecting non-random variation in run charts. The shift and crossings rules are effective in detecting shifts and drifts in process centre over time while keeping the false signal rate constant around 5% and independent of the number of data points in the chart. The trend rule is virtually useless for detection of linear drift over time, the purpose it was intended for.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

Identifying trends in sediment discharge from alterations in upstream land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Osterkamp, W.R.

1995-01-01

Environmental monitoring is a primary reason for collecting sediment data. One emphasis of this monitoring is identification of trends in suspended sediment discharge. A stochastic equation was used to generate time series of annual suspended sediment discharges using statistics from gaging stations with drainage areas between 1606 and 1 805 230 km2. Annual sediment discharge was increased linearly to yield a given increase at the end of a fixed period and trend statistics were computed for each simulation series using Kendal's tau (at 0.05 significance level). A parameter was calculated from two factors that control trend detection time: (a) the magnitude of change in sediment discharge, and (b) the natural variability of sediment discharge. In this analysis the detection of a trend at most stations is well over 100 years for a 20% increase in sediment discharge. Further research is needed to assess the sensitivity of detecting trends at sediment stations.

Slow transients recorded by the cGPS network FreDNet at the northern Adria microplate boundary (NE-Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Giuliana; Fabris, Paolo; Zuliani, David

2013-04-01

The northern tip of the Adria micro-plate (NE-Italy) is continuously monitored by the Friuli Regional Deformation Network (FReDNet) of OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale), consisting of 15 GNSS permanent sites, the first eight of which were installed between 2002 and 2004. Additional information on the strain field in the region comes from the 10 GNSS permanent sites of the Marussi network of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia regional council, some of which record continuously since 1999. Having at disposal time-series of a certain length (around ten-years), it is possible to evaluate with reliability not only the plate motion direction and velocity, represented by the linear trend of the horizontal components of the records, but also the possible plate acceleration, due to the superposition of other terms of the strain field time-space variations, with different frequency. With the aim of investigating such terms, we first processed the GPS data of the longest time series from both networks, starting from 2002, using GAMIT/GLOBK, eliminated the outliers, and filled the eventual short gaps in the data through linear interpolation. A low-band pass filter allowed obtaining the time-series cleaned from the components with frequencies higher than 1.5 years, so to eliminate the annual and quasi-annual terms, and the highest frequencies. The so-obtained time-series for the two horizontal components result dominated by a linear trend, as expected, to which clear oscillations of some years of duration are superimposed. From the analysis of the linear trend, the resulting velocity field suggest crustal shortening, with values ranging between 0.6 and 2.8 mm/year, decreasing from South to North and, more slightly, from East to West. This is in agreement with preceding observations and with the geodynamic character of the region, located in the area of convergence between Adria microplate and Eurasia. As regards as the deviations from the linear trend, the present work focuses on a sort of transient, of "period" between 1.5 and 2.0 years, involving 11 of the 13 stations considered, distributed over the whole area, and causing a bending along the main tectonic directions. In order to state, whether the transient is due to hydrologic or tectonic phenomena, data from rainfalls from the meteorological stations of the regional council networks nearest to each of the GNSS stations have been similarly analysed and compared. In particular, the cumulative de-trended curves have been considered and cross-correlated with the deformation data. The correlation, however, is generally poor. The next step will be the comparison with the seismic activity in the region, from the catalogue of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia seismological network, managed and ruled by OGS.

Modeling of time trends and interactions in vital rates using restricted regression splines.

PubMed

Heuer, C

1997-03-01

For the analysis of time trends in incidence and mortality rates, the age-period-cohort (apc) model has became a widely accepted method. The considered data are arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period, which are mostly subdivided into 5- or 10-year intervals. The disadvantage of this approach is the loss of information by data aggregation and the problems of estimating interactions in the two-way layout without replications. In this article we show how splines can be useful when yearly data, i.e., 1-year age groups and 1-year periods, are given. The estimated spline curves are still smooth and represent yearly changes in the time trends. Further, it is straightforward to include interaction terms by the tensor product of the spline functions. If the data are given in a nonrectangular table, e.g., 5-year age groups and 1-year periods, the period and cohort variables can be parameterized by splines, while the age variable is parameterized as fixed effect levels, which leads to a semiparametric apc model. An important methodological issue in developing the nonparametric and semiparametric models is stability of the estimated spline curve at the boundaries. Here cubic regression splines will be used, which are constrained to be linear in the tails. Another point of importance is the nonidentifiability problem due to the linear dependency of the three time variables. This will be handled by decomposing the basis of each spline by orthogonal projection into constant, linear, and nonlinear terms, as suggested by Holford (1983, Biometrics 39, 311-324) for the traditional apc model. The advantage of using splines for yearly data compared to the traditional approach for aggregated data is the more accurate curve estimation for the nonlinear trend changes and the simple way of modeling interactions between the time variables. The method will be demonstrated with hypothetical data as well as with cancer mortality data.

Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Chou, Ming-Dah; Lindzen, Richard S.; Hou, Arthur Y.

2001-01-01

In his comment on Lindzen et al., Harrison found that the amount of high-level clouds, A, and the sea-surface temperature beneath clouds, T, averaged over a large oceanic domain in the western Pacific have secular linear trends of opposite signs over a period of 20 months. He found that when the linear trends are subtracted from the data, the correlation between the residual A and T is much reduced. His estimates of the confidence levels for the correlation indicate, moreover, that this correlation is not statistically significant. The domain-averaged A and, to a lesser degree, T, have distinct intra-seasonal and seasonal variations. These variations are influenced by the large-scale wind and temperature distributions and by the seasonal variation of insolation. To separate the local effect from the effect of slowly changing large-scale conditions, rather than subtracting 20-month linear trends from the series, which has the potential to spuriously extrapolate intra-seasonal and seasonal variations to even longer time scales, we subtracted 30-day running means of A and T from each time series; in effect, the data were high-pass filtered. The number of points (days), N, is reduced by this process from the original value of 510 to 480.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN. These sources were clearly linked with anthropogenic activities, and the observed decreasing trends confirmed the effectiveness of pollution control measures implemented at European or regional/local levels. Conversely, at regional level, the contributions from sources mostly linked with natural processes, such as aged marine and aged organics, did not show statistically significant trends. The trends observed for the PM10 source contributions reflected the trends observed for the chemical tracers of these pollutant sources well.

Bayesian spatiotemporal crash frequency models with mixture components for space-time interactions.

PubMed

Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Zhang, Yongping; Cao, Zhong

2018-03-01

The traffic safety research has developed spatiotemporal models to explore the variations in the spatial pattern of crash risk over time. Many studies observed notable benefits associated with the inclusion of spatial and temporal correlation and their interactions. However, the safety literature lacks sufficient research for the comparison of different temporal treatments and their interaction with spatial component. This study developed four spatiotemporal models with varying complexity due to the different temporal treatments such as (I) linear time trend; (II) quadratic time trend; (III) Autoregressive-1 (AR-1); and (IV) time adjacency. Moreover, the study introduced a flexible two-component mixture for the space-time interaction which allows greater flexibility compared to the traditional linear space-time interaction. The mixture component allows the accommodation of global space-time interaction as well as the departures from the overall spatial and temporal risk patterns. This study performed a comprehensive assessment of mixture models based on the diverse criteria pertaining to goodness-of-fit, cross-validation and evaluation based on in-sample data for predictive accuracy of crash estimates. The assessment of model performance in terms of goodness-of-fit clearly established the superiority of the time-adjacency specification which was evidently more complex due to the addition of information borrowed from neighboring years, but this addition of parameters allowed significant advantage at posterior deviance which subsequently benefited overall fit to crash data. The Base models were also developed to study the comparison between the proposed mixture and traditional space-time components for each temporal model. The mixture models consistently outperformed the corresponding Base models due to the advantages of much lower deviance. For cross-validation comparison of predictive accuracy, linear time trend model was adjudged the best as it recorded the highest value of log pseudo marginal likelihood (LPML). Four other evaluation criteria were considered for typical validation using the same data for model development. Under each criterion, observed crash counts were compared with three types of data containing Bayesian estimated, normal predicted, and model replicated ones. The linear model again performed the best in most scenarios except one case of using model replicated data and two cases involving prediction without including random effects. These phenomena indicated the mediocre performance of linear trend when random effects were excluded for evaluation. This might be due to the flexible mixture space-time interaction which can efficiently absorb the residual variability escaping from the predictable part of the model. The comparison of Base and mixture models in terms of prediction accuracy further bolstered the superiority of the mixture models as the mixture ones generated more precise estimated crash counts across all four models, suggesting that the advantages associated with mixture component at model fit were transferable to prediction accuracy. Finally, the residual analysis demonstrated the consistently superior performance of random effect models which validates the importance of incorporating the correlation structures to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring trends of outpatient antibiotic use in Europe: jointly modelling longitudinal data in defined daily doses and packages.

PubMed

Bruyndonckx, Robin; Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Goossens, Herman; Molenberghs, Geert; Coenen, Samuel

2014-07-01

To complement analyses of the linear trend and seasonal fluctuation of European outpatient antibiotic use expressed in defined daily doses (DDD) by analyses of data in packages, to assess the agreement between both measures and to study changes in the number of DDD per package over time. Data on outpatient antibiotic use, aggregated at the level of the active substance (WHO version 2011) were collected from 2000 to 2007 for 31 countries and expressed in DDD and packages per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID and PID, respectively). Data expressed in DID and PID were analysed separately using non-linear mixed models while the agreement between these measurements was analysed through a joint non-linear mixed model. The change in DDD per package over time was studied with a linear mixed model. Total outpatient antibiotic and penicillin use in Europe and their seasonal fluctuation significantly increased in DID, but not in PID. The use of combinations of penicillins significantly increased in DID and in PID. Broad-spectrum penicillin use did not increase significantly in DID and decreased significantly in PID. For all but one subgroup, country-specific deviations moved in the same direction whether measured in DID or PID. The correlations are not perfect. The DDD per package increased significantly over time for all but one subgroup. Outpatient antibiotic use in Europe shows contrasting trends, depending on whether DID or PID is used as the measure. The increase of the DDD per package corroborates the recommendation to adopt PID to monitor outpatient antibiotic use in Europe. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Meta-epidemiologic study showed frequent time trends in summary estimates from meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies.

PubMed

Cohen, Jérémie F; Korevaar, Daniël A; Wang, Junfeng; Leeflang, Mariska M; Bossuyt, Patrick M

2016-09-01

To evaluate changes over time in summary estimates from meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies. We included 48 meta-analyses from 35 MEDLINE-indexed systematic reviews published between September 2011 and January 2012 (743 diagnostic accuracy studies; 344,015 participants). Within each meta-analysis, we ranked studies by publication date. We applied random-effects cumulative meta-analysis to follow how summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity evolved over time. Time trends were assessed by fitting a weighted linear regression model of the summary accuracy estimate against rank of publication. The median of the 48 slopes was -0.02 (-0.08 to 0.03) for sensitivity and -0.01 (-0.03 to 0.03) for specificity. Twelve of 96 (12.5%) time trends in sensitivity or specificity were statistically significant. We found a significant time trend in at least one accuracy measure for 11 of the 48 (23%) meta-analyses. Time trends in summary estimates are relatively frequent in meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies. Results from early meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies should be considered with caution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

2008-12-01

We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is produced in the processed waveform. This artificial linear trend degrades the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting, although the forecasting result is expected to be robust against the existence of short-period noise [Tsushima et al., 2008a]. Since the bottom pressure show gradual increase (or decrease) in the tsunami source region [Tsushima et al., 2008b], it is important to remove the linear trend not related to the tsunami generation from the data before fed into the analysis. Therefore, the reduction of the noise in sub-mHz band is critical for the forecasting small tsunamis. Applying a kind of frequency filters to eliminate this noise cannot be a solution for this problem because actual tsunami signals may also contain components of this frequency band. We investigate whether any statistical modelings of the noise are effective for reducing the sub-mHz noise.

Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced metabolic-activities and shortened crop-duration. Likewise, increased Tmin may result in lesser crop and biomass yields owing to the increased respiration.

Mountain plover population responses to black-tailed prairie dogs in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2005-01-01

We studied a local population of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, from 1995 to 2000 to estimate annual rates of recruitment rate (f) and population change (??). We used Pradel models, and we modeled ?? as a constant across years, as a linear time trend, as year-specific, and with an additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We modeled recruitment rate (f) as a function of area occupied by prairie dogs with the remaining model structure identical to the best model used to estimate ??. Our results indicated a strong negative effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on both ?? (slope coefficient on a log scale was -0.11; 95% CI was -0.17, -0.05) and f (slope coefficient on a logit scale was -0.23; 95% CI was -0.36, -0.10). We also found good evidence for a negative time trend on ??; this model had substantial weight (wi = 0.31), and the slope coefficient on the linear trend on a log scale was -0.10 (95% CI was -0.15, -0.05). Yearly estimates of ?? were >1 in all years except 1999, indicating that the population initially increased and then stabilized in the last year of the study. We found weak evidence for year-specific estimates of ??; the best model with year-specific estimates had a low weight (wi = 0.02), although the pattern of yearly estimates of ?? closely matched those estimated with a linear time trend. In southern Phillips County, the population trend of mountain plovers closely matched the trend in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs. Black-tailed prairie dogs declined sharply in the mid-1990s in response to an outbreak of sylvatic plague, but their numbers have steadily increased since 1996 in concert with increases in plovers. The results of this study (1) increase our understanding of the dynamics of this population and how they relate to the area occupied by prairie dogs, and (2) will be useful for planning plover conservation in a prairie dog ecosystem.

Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

PubMed Central

Bishai, David; Opuni, Marjorie

2009-01-01

Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR) time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model) and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model). We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR) on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log transform. PMID:19698144

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by individual medical centers to provide advanced warning of future influenza cases.

The dynamics of Alzheimer's disease biomarkers in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort.

PubMed

Caroli, A; Frisoni, G B

2010-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the dynamics of four of the most validated biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD), cerebro-spinal fluid (CSF) Abeta 1-42, tau, hippocampal volume, and FDG-PET, in patients at different stage of AD. Two hundred twenty-nine cognitively healthy subjects, 154 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients converted to AD, and 193 (95 early and 98 late) AD patients were selected from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. For each biomarker, individual values were Z-transformed and plotted against ADAS-cog scores, and sigmoid and linear fits were compared. For most biomarkers the sigmoid model fitted data significantly better than the linear model. Abeta 1-42 time course followed a steep curve, stabilizing early in the disease course. CSF tau and hippocampal volume changed later showing similar monotonous trends, reflecting disease progression. Hippocampal loss trend was steeper and occurred earlier in time in APOE epsilon4 carriers than in non-carriers. FDG-PET started changing early in time and likely followed a linear decline. In conclusion, this study provides the first evidence in favor of the dynamic biomarker model which has recently been proposed. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender-Specific Trends in Educational Attainment and Self-Rated Health, 1972–2002

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Needham, Belinda L.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We tested whether self-rated health has improved over time (1972–2002) for women and men. We also considered the degree to which historical gains in educational attainment help to explain any observed trends. Methods. Using 21 years of repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey, we estimated a series of ordered logistic regression models predicting self-rated health. Results. Our results show that women’s health status has steadily improved over the 30-year period under study, and these improvements are largely explained by gains in educational attainment. We also found that the health trend for men is nonlinear, suggesting significant fluctuations in health status over time. Conclusions. Based on the linear health status trend and strong mediation pattern for women, and the nonlinear health status trend for men, women have benefited more than men, in terms of self-rated health, from increased educational attainment. PMID:16735623

Some Questions Concerning the Standards of External Examinations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahn, Michael J.

1990-01-01

Variance as a function of time is described for the Cambridge Local Examinations Syndicate's examination standards, with emphasis on the performance of candidates from Botswana and Zimbabwe. Results demonstrate the value of simple linear modeling in extracting performance trends for a range of subjects over time across six countries. (TJH)

Unsteady transonic flows - Introduction, current trends, applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yates, E. C., Jr.

1985-01-01

The computational treatment of unsteady transonic flows is discussed, reviewing the historical development and current techniques. The fundamental physical principles are outlined; the governing equations are introduced; three-dimensional linearized and two-dimensional linear-perturbation theories in frequency domain are described in detail; and consideration is given to frequency-domain FEMs and time-domain finite-difference and integral-equation methods. Extensive graphs and diagrams are included.

Trends and Correlation Estimation in Climate Sciences: Effects of Timescale Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, M.; Bermejo, M. A.; Bickert, T.; Chirila, D.; Fohlmeister, J.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.; Olafsdottir, K.; Scholz, D.

2012-12-01

Trend describes time-dependence in the first moment of a stochastic process, and correlation measures the linear relation between two random variables. Accurately estimating the trend and correlation, including uncertainties, from climate time series data in the uni- and bivariate domain, respectively, allows first-order insights into the geophysical process that generated the data. Timescale errors, ubiquitious in paleoclimatology, where archives are sampled for proxy measurements and dated, poses a problem to the estimation. Statistical science and the various applied research fields, including geophysics, have almost completely ignored this problem due to its theoretical almost-intractability. However, computational adaptations or replacements of traditional error formulas have become technically feasible. This contribution gives a short overview of such an adaptation package, bootstrap resampling combined with parametric timescale simulation. We study linear regression, parametric change-point models and nonparametric smoothing for trend estimation. We introduce pairwise-moving block bootstrap resampling for correlation estimation. Both methods share robustness against autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributional shape. We shortly touch computing-intensive calibration of bootstrap confidence intervals and consider options to parallelize the related computer code. Following examples serve not only to illustrate the methods but tell own climate stories: (1) the search for climate drivers of the Agulhas Current on recent timescales, (2) the comparison of three stalagmite-based proxy series of regional, western German climate over the later part of the Holocene, and (3) trends and transitions in benthic oxygen isotope time series from the Cenozoic. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 668, FOR 1070, MU 1595/4-1) and the European Commission (MC ITN 238512, MC ITN 289447) is acknowledged.

Beyond linear methods of data analysis: time series analysis and its applications in renal research.

PubMed

Gupta, Ashwani K; Udrea, Andreea

2013-01-01

Analysis of temporal trends in medicine is needed to understand normal physiology and to study the evolution of disease processes. It is also useful for monitoring response to drugs and interventions, and for accountability and tracking of health care resources. In this review, we discuss what makes time series analysis unique for the purposes of renal research and its limitations. We also introduce nonlinear time series analysis methods and provide examples where these have advantages over linear methods. We review areas where these computational methods have found applications in nephrology ranging from basic physiology to health services research. Some examples include noninvasive assessment of autonomic function in patients with chronic kidney disease, dialysis-dependent renal failure and renal transplantation. Time series models and analysis methods have been utilized in the characterization of mechanisms of renal autoregulation and to identify the interaction between different rhythms of nephron pressure flow regulation. They have also been used in the study of trends in health care delivery. Time series are everywhere in nephrology and analyzing them can lead to valuable knowledge discovery. The study of time trends of vital signs, laboratory parameters and the health status of patients is inherent to our everyday clinical practice, yet formal models and methods for time series analysis are not fully utilized. With this review, we hope to familiarize the reader with these techniques in order to assist in their proper use where appropriate.

Recent Enrollment Trends in American Soil Science Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.; Abit, Sergio; Brown, David; Dolliver, Holly; Hopkins, David; Lindbo, David; Manu, Andrew; Mbila, Monday; Parikh, Sanjai J.; Schulze, Darrell; Shaw, Joey; Weil, Ray; Weindorf, David

2015-04-01

Soil science student enrollment was on the decline in the United States from the early 1990s through the early 2000s. Overall undergraduate student enrollment in American colleges and universities rose by about 11% over the same time period. This fact created considerable consternation among the American soil science community. As we head into the International Year of Soil, it seemed to be a good time to revisit this issue and examine current enrollment trends. Fourteen universities that offer undergraduate and/or graduate programs in soil science were surveyed for their enrollments over the time period 2007-2014 (the last seven academic years). The 14 schools represent about 20% of the institutions that offer soil science degrees/programs in the United States. Thirteen institutions submitted undergraduate data and 10 submitted graduate data, which was analyzed by individual institution and in aggregate. Simple linear regression was used to find the slope of best-fit trend lines. For individual institutions, a slope of ≥ 0.5 (on average, the school gained 0.5 students per year or more) was considered to be growing enrollment, ≤ -0.5 was considered shrinking enrollment, and between -0.5 and 0.5 was considered to be stable enrollment. For aggregated data, the 0.5 slope standard was multiplied by the number of schools in the aggregated survey to determine whether enrollment was growing, shrinking, or stable. Over the period of the study, six of the 13 schools reporting undergraduate data showed enrollment gains, five of the 13 showed stable enrollments, one of the 13 showed declining enrollments, and one of the 13 discontinued their undergraduate degree program. The linear regression trend line for the undergraduate schools' composite data had a slope of 55.0 students/year (R2 = 0.96), indicating a strong overall trend of undergraduate enrollment growth at these schools. However, the largest school had also seen large growth in enrollment. To ensure that this one institution was not masking an overall declining enrollment trend, the regression was also run with that institution removed. This gave a linear trend line with a slope of 6.6 students/year (R2 = 0.90), indicating more moderate growth but still a trend towards growth in undergraduate enrollment. Four of the 10 graduate programs showed enrollment gains, five of the 10 showed stable enrollments, and one of the 10 showed declining enrollments. The linear regression trend line for the composite graduate school data had a slope of 12.0 students/year (R2 = 0.97), indicating an overall trend of enrollment growth at these schools. As a whole, both the undergraduate and graduate programs investigated showed moderate growth trends, which represent a reversal of enrollment trends reported at the beginning of the 21st Century. Challenges in obtaining the data used for this study included 1) differences in data collection and archiving by institutions and 2) only some schools still offer a soil science degree; many schools offer another degree (e.g., agricultural studies, agronomy, environmental resource science, environmental science, plant and soil science, etc.) with a soils option or emphasis. In the second case it was necessary to identify which students in these other degree programs pursued the soil science option or emphasis.

On summary measure analysis of linear trend repeated measures data: performance comparison with two competing methods.

PubMed

Vossoughi, Mehrdad; Ayatollahi, S M T; Towhidi, Mina; Ketabchi, Farzaneh

2012-03-22

The summary measure approach (SMA) is sometimes the only applicable tool for the analysis of repeated measurements in medical research, especially when the number of measurements is relatively large. This study aimed to describe techniques based on summary measures for the analysis of linear trend repeated measures data and then to compare performances of SMA, linear mixed model (LMM), and unstructured multivariate approach (UMA). Practical guidelines based on the least squares regression slope and mean of response over time for each subject were provided to test time, group, and interaction effects. Through Monte Carlo simulation studies, the efficacy of SMA vs. LMM and traditional UMA, under different types of covariance structures, was illustrated. All the methods were also employed to analyze two real data examples. Based on the simulation and example results, it was found that the SMA completely dominated the traditional UMA and performed convincingly close to the best-fitting LMM in testing all the effects. However, the LMM was not often robust and led to non-sensible results when the covariance structure for errors was misspecified. The results emphasized discarding the UMA which often yielded extremely conservative inferences as to such data. It was shown that summary measure is a simple, safe and powerful approach in which the loss of efficiency compared to the best-fitting LMM was generally negligible. The SMA is recommended as the first choice to reliably analyze the linear trend data with a moderate to large number of measurements and/or small to moderate sample sizes.

Casas Muertas and Oficina No. 1: internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905-1945.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2007-06-01

To compare internal migration and temperature as factors behind the decreasing trend in malaria deaths observed in Venezuela from 1905 to 1945, linear autoregressive models are fitted to a historical dataset. The model that only incorporates internal migration is the one with the best fit. The decreasing trend in malaria deaths in Venezuela, from 1905 to 1945, is not explained by a trend in mean annual temperature, but it is associated with an increase in the proportion of population in the Capital District, during a time period when the area was the principal attractor of migrations within the country.

Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2015-07-01

Although the impact of extreme heat and cold on mortality has been documented in recent years, few studies have investigated whether variation in susceptibility to extreme temperatures has changed in Japan. We used data on daily total mortality and mean temperatures in Fukuoka, Japan, for 1973-2012. We used time-series analysis to assess the effects of extreme hot and low temperatures on all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, gender, and age, adjusting for time trends. We used a multivariate meta-analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate pooled non-linear lag-response relationships associated with extreme temperatures on mortality. The relative risk of mortality increased during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time. The mortality risk was higher during cold extremes for the entire study period, with a dispersed pattern across decades. Meta-analysis showed that both heat and cold extremes increased the risk of mortality. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for several days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Our study provides quantitative evidence that extreme heat and low temperatures were significantly and non-linearly associated with the increased risk of mortality with substantial variation. Our results suggest that timely preventative measures are important for extreme high temperatures, whereas several days' protection should be provided for extreme low temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

PubMed Central

Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of sampling.   PMID:9764107

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States.

PubMed

Welsh, Jean A; Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-09-01

The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999-2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend <0.001 for both). Energy drinks were the only source of added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend <0.001). Although the consumption of added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits.

Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States1234

PubMed Central

Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-01-01

Background: The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. Objective: We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. Design: A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999–2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Results: Between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend <0.001 for both). Energy drinks were the only source of added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend <0.001). Conclusion: Although the consumption of added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits. PMID:21753067

Health Disparities Grants Funded by National Institute on Aging: Trends Between 2000 and 2010

PubMed Central

Kim, Giyeon; DeCoster, Jamie; Huang, Chao-Hui; Parmelee, Patricia

2012-01-01

Purpose of the Study: The present study examined the characteristics of health disparities grants funded by National Institute on Aging (NIA) from 2000 to 2010. Objectives were (a) to examine longitudinal trends in health disparities–related grants funded by NIA and (b) to identify moderators of these trends. Design and Methods: Our primary data source was the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools Expenditures and Results (RePORTER) system. The RePORTER data were merged with data from the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education. General linear models were used to examine the longitudinal trends and how these trends were associated with type of grant and institutional characteristics. Results: NIA funded 825 grants on health disparities between 2000 and 2010, expending approximately 330 million dollars. There was an overall linear increase over time in both the total number of grants and amount of funding, with an outlying spike during 2009. These trends were significantly influenced by several moderators including funding mechanism and type of institution. Implications: The findings highlight NIA’s current efforts to fund health disparities grants to reduce disparities among older adults. Gerontology researchers may find this information very useful for their future grant submissions. PMID:22454392

Reservoir monitoring and characterization using satellite geodetic data: Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations from the Krechba field, Algeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.; Ferretti, Alessandro; Novali, Fabrizio

2008-05-01

Deformation in the material overlying an active reservoir is used to monitor pressure change at depth. A sequence of pressure field estimates, eleven in all, allow us to construct a measure of diffusive travel time throughout the reservoir. The dense distribution of travel time values means that we can construct an exactly linear inverse problem for reservoir flow properties. Application to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data gathered over a CO{sub 2} injection in Algeria reveals pressure propagation along two northwest trending corridors. An inversion of the travel times indicates the existence of two northwest-trending high permeability zones. The highmore » permeability features trend in the same direction as the regional fault and fracture zones. Model parameter resolution estimates indicate that the features are well resolved.« less

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Post seismic deformation associated with the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

1997-01-01

Following the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5-km spacing was established across the Emerson fault segment of the Landers rupture. The array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it. The array was surveyed by Global Positioning System 0.034, 0.048, 0.381, 1.27, 1.88, 2.60, and 3.42 years after the Landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation. The temporal behavior is described roughly by a short-term (decay time 84±23 days) exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend. Because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions, we attribute that trend to a slower (decay time greater than 5 years) postseismic relaxation, the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run (3.4 years) of postseismic data. About 100 mm of right-lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault-normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3.4-year interval covered by the postseismic surveys. Those displacements are attributed to postseismic, right-lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace. The right-lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array, and the fault-normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture. These conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation. However, no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error.

Mesospheric temperature trends derived from standard phase-height measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Dieter H. W.; Entzian, Günter; Keckhut, Philippe

2017-10-01

New homogeneous time series of daily standard phase-height (SPH) and daily plasma scale-height (PSH) have been derived from a 50-year long-radio-wave measurement of the broadcasting station Allouis (France, 162 kHz). The signal was received at Kühlungsborn (54°N, 12°E, Mecklenburg, Germany) and the present series is a third release. The daily time series of SPH shows in its spectrum dominant modes which are typical for the solar cycle (SC), for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and for quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO), indicating solar and lower atmospheric influences. Surprisingly, the time series of daily PSH shows a band of dominant cycles larger than 16 years. In order to exclude the influence of the winter anomaly in the determination of column-integrated mesospheric temperature trends the phase-height-temperature procedure is confined to summer months. The derived thickness temperature of the mesosphere decreased statistically significant over the period 1959-2008 after pre-whitening with summer mean of solar sun spot numbers. The trend value is in the order of about -1.05 K/decade if the stratopause trend is excluded. The linear regression is more pronounced, -1.35 K/decade for the period of 1963-1985 (2 SCs), but weaker, -0.51 K/decade during 1986-2008 (last 2 SCs). The linear regression is in very good agreement with a mean column-integrated mesospheric trend derived from OHP-Lidar temperatures on a monthly mean basis for the last two SCs. This clearly shows that the thickness temperature of the mesosphere derived from phase-height measurement is a useful proxy for the long-term summer temperature change in the mesosphere from 1959 until 2008.

Linear Regression Quantile Mapping (RQM) - A new approach to bias correction with consistent quantile trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passow, Christian; Donner, Reik

2017-04-01

Quantile mapping (QM) is an established concept that allows to correct systematic biases in multiple quantiles of the distribution of a climatic observable. It shows remarkable results in correcting biases in historical simulations through observational data and outperforms simpler correction methods which relate only to the mean or variance. Since it has been shown that bias correction of future predictions or scenario runs with basic QM can result in misleading trends in the projection, adjusted, trend preserving, versions of QM were introduced in the form of detrended quantile mapping (DQM) and quantile delta mapping (QDM) (Cannon, 2015, 2016). Still, all previous versions and applications of QM based bias correction rely on the assumption of time-independent quantiles over the investigated period, which can be misleading in the context of a changing climate. Here, we propose a novel combination of linear quantile regression (QR) with the classical QM method to introduce a consistent, time-dependent and trend preserving approach of bias correction for historical and future projections. Since QR is a regression method, it is possible to estimate quantiles in the same resolution as the given data and include trends or other dependencies. We demonstrate the performance of the new method of linear regression quantile mapping (RQM) in correcting biases of temperature and precipitation products from historical runs (1959 - 2005) of the COSMO model in climate mode (CCLM) from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble relative to gridded E-OBS data of the same spatial and temporal resolution. A thorough comparison with established bias correction methods highlights the strengths and potential weaknesses of the new RQM approach. References: A.J. Cannon, S.R. Sorbie, T.Q. Murdock: Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping - How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes? Journal of Climate, 28, 6038, 2015 A.J. Cannon: Multivariate Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs - Matching Marginal Distributions and Inter-variable Dependence Structure. Journal of Climate, 29, 7045, 2016

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

PubMed

Condon, Robert H; Duarte, Carlos M; Pitt, Kylie A; Robinson, Kelly L; Lucas, Cathy H; Sutherland, Kelly R; Mianzan, Hermes W; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P; Brodeur, Richard D; Haddock, Steven H D; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M; Graham, William M

2013-01-15

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

Effect of the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign on trends in mental-illness-related public stigma among the English population in 2003-13: an analysis of survey data.

PubMed

Evans-Lacko, Sara; Corker, Elizabeth; Williams, Paul; Henderson, Claire; Thornicroft, Graham

2014-07-01

Understanding trends and effective mechanisms that are likely to reduce public stigma and discrimination towards people with mental illness is important. We aimed to assess changes in public stigma in England after the introduction of the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign. We used data from the 2003 and 2007-13 national Attitudes to Mental Illness surveys to investigate 10-year trends in public attitudes across England before and during the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign. We present annual mean scores for attitude items related to prejudice and exclusion, and tolerance and support for community care. We also present an extrapolated linear trend line for the years 2009-13 and estimate population attitude scores without the campaign. We present unadjusted and adjusted linear regression models. In addition, we used multivariable linear regression models fitted to data aggregated by region to investigate whether a dose-effect response exists between campaign awareness and regional outcomes related to knowledge, attitudes, and intended behaviour. About 1700 respondents were surveyed each year. Significant increases in positive attitudes related to prejudice and exclusion occurred after the Time to Change campaign. In the multivariable analysis, we noted a significant increase in positive attitudes in relation to prejudice and exclusion after the launch of Time to Change (reverse-coded Z score 0·02, 95% CI 0·01 to 0·05; p=0·01), but not for tolerance and support for community care (Z score 0·01, -0·01 to 0·03; p=0·27). We also found evidence for a dose-effect relation between campaign awareness and regional improvement in knowledge (p=0·004) and attitudes (tolerance and support p<0·0001; prejudice and exclusion p=0·001), but not intended behaviour (p=0·20). The positive effects of Time to Change seem to be significant and moderate. Although attitudes are probably more at risk of deterioration during times of economic hardship, anti-stigma programmes might still play an active part in long-term reduction of stigma and discrimination, especially in relation to prejudice and exclusion of people with mental health problems. UK Department of Health, Comic Relief, Big Lottery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers' Adaptations.

PubMed

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008-2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4-66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers' practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers’ Adaptations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008–2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4–66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers’ practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations. PMID:28900435

Trends in reproductive health knowledge following a health education intervention among adolescents in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Rusakaniko, S; Mbizvo, M T; Kasule, J; Gupta, V; Kinoti, S N; Mpanju-Shumbushu, W; Sebina-Zziwa, J; Mwateba, R; Padayachy, J

1997-01-01

Unwanted teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections and the attendant morbidity and mortality necessitate the need for understanding factors influencing adolescent sexuality and the implementation of programmes designed to improve their knowledge, reproductive behaviour, sexual and reproductive health. To determine the impact of an intervention package on knowledge levels of various reproductive health issues through trend analysis. Randomized controlled trial of a health education intervention in schools stratified for representativeness. Rural and urban secondary schools in Zimbabwe. 1,689 students recruited from 11 secondary schools in Mashonaland Central. Knowledge level before and after intervention. The demographic characteristics of the pupils at baseline, five months and nine months were comparable between the two groups. There was an overall increase in knowledge on menstruation. Students from the intervention schools were more likely to have correct knowledge over time on aspects of reproductive biology. A significant linear trend (p = 0.017) was observed in the area of family planning and contraception. A linear decreasing trend (p = 0.001) was observed on pregnancy risk. Though not significantly linear, the general trend of knowledge levels in all the areas of reproductive health, pregnancy risk, STDs and HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend, from 20% to 96%. Worth noting was that in all the areas the intervention group had knowledge above that in the control group. The reproductive health education intervention had an impact on aspects of reproductive biology and contraception as measured by the increased scoring at follow up when comparing intervention and control schools. The overall findings point to the need for early school based reproductive health education programmes incooperating correct information on reproductive biology and the prevention of subsequent reproductive morbidity by imparting information on non-risk behaviour during the early developmental years.

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

PubMed

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P < 0.05) and best performance compared to linear and exponential models. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict LF cases for a prospective 5 years period, covering 2013-2017. The two-stage predictive model of LF case-pattern between 2013 and 2017 was characterized by a prospective decline within the South-coast County of Grand Bassa over the forecast period and an upward case-trend within the Northern County of Nimba. Case specific exponential increase was predicted for the first 2 years (2013-2014) with a geometric increase over the next 3 years (2015-2017) in Nimba County. This paper describes a translational application of the space-time distribution pattern of LF epidemics, 2008-2012 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

Linearly chirped fiber Bragg grating response to thermal gradient: from bench tests to the real-time assessment during in vivo laser ablations of biological tissue.

PubMed

Saccomandi, Paola; Varalda, Ambra; Gassino, Riccardo; Tosi, Daniele; Massaroni, Carlo; Caponero, Michele A; Pop, Raoul; Korganbayev, Sanzhar; Perrone, Guido; Diana, Michele; Vallan, Alberto; Costamagna, Guido; Marescaux, Jacques; Schena, Emiliano

2017-09-01

The response of a fiber optic sensor [linearly chirped fiber Bragg grating (LCFBG)] to a linear thermal gradient applied on its sensing length (i.e., 1.5 cm) has been investigated. After these bench tests, we assessed their feasibility for temperature monitoring during thermal tumor treatment. In particular, we performed experiments during ex vivo laser ablation (LA) in pig liver and in vivo thermal ablation in animal models (pigs). We investigated the following: (i) the relationship between the full width at half maximum of the LCFBG spectrum and the temperature difference among the extremities of the LCFBG and (ii) the relationship between the mean spectrum wavelength and the mean temperature acting on the LCFBG sensing area. These relationships showed a linear trend during both bench tests and LA in animal models. Thermal sensitivity was significant although different values were found with regards to bench tests and animal experiments. The linear trend and significant sensitivity allow hypothesizing a future use of this kind of sensor to monitor both temperature gradient and mean temperature within a tissue undergoing thermal treatment. (2017) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

Observations of, and sources of the spatial and temporal variability of ozone in the middle atmosphere on climatological time scales (OZMAP) and equatorial dynamics: Seasonal variations of ozone trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entzian, G.; Grasnick, K. H.; Taubenheim, J.

1989-01-01

The long term trends (least square linear regression with time) of ozone content at seven European, seven North American, three Japanese and two tropical stations during 21 years (1964 to 1984) are analyzed. In all regions negative trends are observed during the 1970s, but are partly compensated by limited periods of positive trends during the late 1960s and late 1970s. Solely the North American ozone data show negative trends in all 10 year periods. When the long term ozone trends are evaluated for each month of the year separately, a seasonal variation is revealed, which in Europe and North America has largest negative trends in late winter and spring. While in Europe the negative trends in winter/spring are partly compensated by positive trends in summer, in North America the summer values reach only zero, retaining the significant negative trend in annual mean values. In contrast to the antarctic ozone hole, the spring reduction of ozone in Europe and in North America is associated with stratospheric temperatures increasing in the analyzed period and therefore is consistent with the major natural ozone production and loss processes.

Further study on the solar activity variation of daytime NmF2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yiding; Liu, Libo

2010-12-01

The ionosonde observations in the East Asia-Australia sector are collected to further investigate the solar activity variation of daytime (0800 ˜ 1600 LT) NmF2. The linear increase rate of NmF2 with F10.7 at lower solar activity levels is remarkably dependent on latitude, season, and local time. The rate is largest in equinoxes (with an equinoctial asymmetry) and higher in the morning (afternoon) in local winter (summer) at geomagnetic midlatitudes; particularly, the maximum rates in local winter are obviously larger than those in local summer at northern midlatitudes. In the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest regions, the rates in equinoxes and December (June) solstice are remarkably higher than those in June (December) solstice at the northern (southern) EIA crest, and the rate grows from the morning sector to the afternoon sector. The variation trend of NmF2 with F10.7 also shows latitudinal, seasonal, and local time dependences. The saturation effect dominates in all seasons in the EIA regions; at midlatitudes, NmF2 nearly increases linearly with F10.7 in local winter so that a linear fit is a good approximation for NmF2 modeling, while the saturation effect still dominates in other seasons. The saturation effect is more significant in the afternoon, and the strongest saturation effect appears at the EIA crest latitudes in equinox afternoon. Discussions indicate that the variations of neutral atmosphere and hmF2 are responsible for the seasonal and local time dependences of the linear increase rate of NmF2 with F10.7 at midlatitudes, and the seasonal variation of neutral atmosphere is the primary reason for the seasonal dependence of the variation trend of NmF2 with F10.7, while dynamics processes are the more important factors controlling the linear increase rate and the variation trend of NmF2 with F10.7 at low latitudes. Furthermore, dynamics processes are important for the saturation effect, and the fountain effect is related to the strongest saturation effect appearing at the EIA crests.

Flexible and structured survival model for a simultaneous estimation of non-linear and non-proportional effects and complex interactions between continuous variables: Performance of this multidimensional penalized spline approach in net survival trend analysis.

PubMed

Remontet, Laurent; Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Iwaz, Jean; Belot, Aurélien; Danieli, Coraline; Charvat, Hadrien; Roche, Laurent

2018-01-01

Cancer survival trend analyses are essential to describe accurately the way medical practices impact patients' survival according to the year of diagnosis. To this end, survival models should be able to account simultaneously for non-linear and non-proportional effects and for complex interactions between continuous variables. However, in the statistical literature, there is no consensus yet on how to build such models that should be flexible but still provide smooth estimates of survival. In this article, we tackle this challenge by smoothing the complex hypersurface (time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and mortality hazard) using a multidimensional penalized spline built from the tensor product of the marginal bases of time, age, and year. Considering this penalized survival model as a Poisson model, we assess the performance of this approach in estimating the net survival with a comprehensive simulation study that reflects simple and complex realistic survival trends. The bias was generally small and the root mean squared error was good and often similar to that of the true model that generated the data. This parametric approach offers many advantages and interesting prospects (such as forecasting) that make it an attractive and efficient tool for survival trend analyses.

High School Grade Inflation from 2004 to 2011. ACT Research Report Series, 2013 (3)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Qian; Sanchez, Edgar I.

2013-01-01

This study explores inflation in high school grade point average (HSGPA), defined as trend over time in the conditional average of HSGPA, given ACT® Composite score. The time period considered is 2004 to 2011. Using hierarchical linear modeling, the study updates a previous analysis of Woodruff and Ziomek (2004). The study also investigates…

Estimating permeability from quasi-static deformation: Temporal variations and arrival time inversion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.; Ferretti, Alessandro; Novali, Fabrizio

2008-05-01

Transient pressure variations within a reservoir can be treated as a propagating front and analyzed using an asymptotic formulation. From this perspective one can define a pressure 'arrival time' and formulate solutions along trajectories, in the manner of ray theory. We combine this methodology and a technique for mapping overburden deformation into reservoir volume change as a means to estimate reservoir flow properties, such as permeability. Given the entire 'travel time' or phase field, obtained from the deformation data, we can construct the trajectories directly, there-by linearizing the inverse problem. A numerical study indicates that, using this approach, we canmore » infer large-scale variations in flow properties. In an application to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) observations associated with a CO{sub 2} injection at the Krechba field, Algeria, we image pressure propagation to the northwest. An inversion for flow properties indicates a linear trend of high permeability. The high permeability correlates with a northwest trending fault on the flank of the anticline which defines the field.« less

Trends in Timing of Pregnancy Awareness Among US Women.

PubMed

Branum, Amy M; Ahrens, Katherine A

2017-04-01

Objectives Early pregnancy detection is important for improving pregnancy outcomes as the first trimester is a critical window of fetal development; however, there has been no description of trends in timing of pregnancy awareness among US women. Methods We examined data from the 1995, 2002, 2006-2010 and 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth on self-reported timing of pregnancy awareness among women aged 15-44 years who reported at least one pregnancy in the 4 or 5 years prior to interview that did not result in induced abortion or adoption (n = 17, 406). We examined the associations between maternal characteristics and late pregnancy awareness (≥7 weeks' gestation) using adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models. Gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness (continuous) was regressed over year of pregnancy conception (1990-2012) in a linear model. Results Among all pregnancies reported, gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23 % (standard error = 1 %). Late pregnancy awareness decreased with maternal age, was more prevalent among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women compared to non-Hispanic white women, and for unintended pregnancies versus those that were intended (p < 0.01). Mean time of pregnancy awareness did not change linearly over a 23-year time period after adjustment for maternal age at the time of conception (p < 0.16). Conclusions for Practice On average, timing of pregnancy awareness did not change linearly during 1990-2012 among US women and occurs later among certain groups of women who are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes.

Trends in Timing of Pregnancy Awareness Among US Women

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Objectives Early pregnancy detection is important for improving pregnancy outcomes as the first trimester is a critical window of fetal development; however, there has been no description of trends in timing of pregnancy awareness among US women. Methods We examined data from the 1995, 2002, 2006–2010 and 2011–2013 National Survey of Family Growth on self-reported timing of pregnancy awareness among women aged 15–44 years who reported at least one pregnancy in the 4 or 5 years prior to interview that did not result in induced abortion or adoption (n = 17, 406). We examined the associations between maternal characteristics and late pregnancy awareness (≥7 weeks’ gestation) using adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models. Gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness (continuous) was regressed over year of pregnancy conception (1990–2012) in a linear model. Results Among all pregnancies reported, gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23 % (standard error = 1 %). Late pregnancy awareness decreased with maternal age, was more prevalent among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women compared to non-Hispanic white women, and for unintended pregnancies versus those that were intended (p < 0.01). Mean time of pregnancy awareness did not change linearly over a 23-year time period after adjustment for maternal age at the time of conception (p < 0.16). Conclusions for Practice On average, timing of pregnancy awareness did not change linearly during 1990–2012 among US women and occurs later among certain groups of women who are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes. PMID:27449777

Trunk motion and gait characteristics of pregnant women when walking: report of a longitudinal study with a control group

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A longitudinal repeated measures design over pregnancy and post-birth, with a control group would provide insight into the mechanical adaptations of the body under conditions of changing load during a common female human lifespan condition, while minimizing the influences of inter human differences. The objective was to investigate systematic changes in the range of motion for the pelvic and thoracic segments of the spine, the motion between these segments (thoracolumbar spine) and temporospatial characteristics of step width, stride length and velocity during walking as pregnancy progresses and post-birth. Methods Nine pregnant women were investigated when walking along a walkway at a self-selected velocity using an 8 camera motion analysis system on four occasions throughout pregnancy and once post birth. A control group of twelve non-pregnant nulliparous women were tested on three occasions over the same time period. The existence of linear trends for change was investigated. Results As pregnancy progresses there was a significant linear trend for increase in step width (p = 0.05) and a significant linear trend for decrease in stride length (p = 0.05). Concurrently there was a significant linear trend for decrease in the range of motion of the pelvic segment (p = 0.03) and thoracolumbar spine (p = 0.01) about a vertical axis (side to side rotation), and the pelvic segment (p = 0.04) range of motion around an anterio-posterior axis (side tilt). Post-birth, step width readapted whereas pelvic (p = 0.02) and thoracic (p < 0.001) segment flexion-extension range of motion decreased and increased respectively. The magnitude of all changes was greater than that accounted for with natural variability with re testing. Conclusions As pregnancy progressed and post-birth there were significant linear trends seen in biomechanical changes when walking at a self-determined natural speed that were greater than that accounted for by natural variability with repeated testing. Not all adaptations were resolved by eight weeks post birth. PMID:23514204

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

Trends in modern system theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Athans, M.

1976-01-01

The topics considered are related to linear control system design, adaptive control, failure detection, control under failure, system reliability, and large-scale systems and decentralized control. It is pointed out that the design of a linear feedback control system which regulates a process about a desirable set point or steady-state condition in the presence of disturbances is a very important problem. The linearized dynamics of the process are used for design purposes. The typical linear-quadratic design involving the solution of the optimal control problem of a linear time-invariant system with respect to a quadratic performance criterion is considered along with gain reduction theorems and the multivariable phase margin theorem. The stumbling block in many adaptive design methodologies is associated with the amount of real time computation which is necessary. Attention is also given to the desperate need to develop good theories for large-scale systems, the beginning of a microprocessor revolution, the translation of the Wiener-Hopf theory into the time domain, and advances made in dynamic team theory, dynamic stochastic games, and finite memory stochastic control.

Trends in non-stationary signal processing techniques applied to vibration analysis of wind turbine drive train - A contemporary survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uma Maheswari, R.; Umamaheswari, R.

2017-02-01

Condition Monitoring System (CMS) substantiates potential economic benefits and enables prognostic maintenance in wind turbine-generator failure prevention. Vibration Monitoring and Analysis is a powerful tool in drive train CMS, which enables the early detection of impending failure/damage. In variable speed drives such as wind turbine-generator drive trains, the vibration signal acquired is of non-stationary and non-linear. The traditional stationary signal processing techniques are inefficient to diagnose the machine faults in time varying conditions. The current research trend in CMS for drive-train focuses on developing/improving non-linear, non-stationary feature extraction and fault classification algorithms to improve fault detection/prediction sensitivity and selectivity and thereby reducing the misdetection and false alarm rates. In literature, review of stationary signal processing algorithms employed in vibration analysis is done at great extent. In this paper, an attempt is made to review the recent research advances in non-linear non-stationary signal processing algorithms particularly suited for variable speed wind turbines.

Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.

2010-01-01

Trends in the timing of snowmelt and associated runoff in Colorado were evaluated for the 1978-2007 water years using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on daily snow-water equivalent (SWE) data from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites and daily streamflow data from headwater streams. The RKT is a robust, nonparametric test that provides an increased power of trend detection by grouping data from multiple sites within a given geographic region. The RKT analyses indicated strong, pervasive trends in snowmelt and streamflow timing, which have shifted toward earlier in the year by a median of 2-3 weeks over the 29-yr study period. In contrast, relatively few statistically significant trends were detected using simple linear regression. RKT analyses also indicated that November-May air temperatures increased by a median of 0.9 degrees C decade-1, while 1 April SWE and maximum SWE declined by a median of 4.1 and 3.6 cm decade-1, respectively. Multiple linear regression models were created, using monthly air temperatures, snowfall, latitude, and elevation as explanatory variables to identify major controlling factors on snowmelt timing. The models accounted for 45% of the variance in snowmelt onset, and 78% of the variance in the snowmelt center of mass (when half the snowpack had melted). Variations in springtime air temperature and SWE explained most of the interannual variability in snowmelt timing. Regression coefficients for air temperature were negative, indicating that warm temperatures promote early melt. Regression coefficients for SWE, latitude, and elevation were positive, indicating that abundant snowfall tends to delay snowmelt, and snowmelt tends to occur later at northern latitudes and high elevations. Results from this study indicate that even the mountains of Colorado, with their high elevations and cold snowpacks, are experiencing substantial shifts in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff toward earlier in the year.

Latent Growth Modeling of nursing care dependency of acute neurological inpatients.

PubMed

Piredda, M; Ghezzi, V; De Marinis, M G; Palese, A

2015-01-01

Longitudinal three-time point study, addressing how neurological adult patient care dependency varies from the admission time to the 3rd day of acute hospitalization. Nursing care dependency was measured with the Care Dependency Scale (CDS) and a Latent Growth Modeling approach was used to analyse the CDS trend in 124 neurosurgical and stroke inpatients. Care dependence followed a decreasing linear trend. Results can help nurse-managers planning an appropriate amount of nursing care for acute neurological patients during their initial stage of hospitalization. Further studies are needed aimed at investigating the determinants of nursing care dependence during the entire in-hospital stay.

Monitoring Springs in the Mojave Desert Using Landsat Time Series Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study, based on Landsat satellite data was to characterize variations and trends over 30 consecutive years (1985-2016) in perennial vegetation green cover at over 400 confirmed Mojave Desert spring locations. These springs were surveyed between in 2015 and 2016 on lands managed in California by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and on several land trusts within the Barstow, Needles, and Ridgecrest BLM Field Offices. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from July Landsat images was computed at each spring location and a trend model was first fit to the multi-year NDVI time series using least squares linear regression.Â

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations

PubMed Central

Condon, Robert H.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Sutherland, Kelly R.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Haddock, Steven H. D.; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D.; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M.; Graham, William M.

2013-01-01

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face. PMID:23277544

Comparison of statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.

PubMed

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.

Increased trend in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use by adults in the United States since 2007.

PubMed

Gerke, Alicia K; Tang, Fan; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Doerschug, Kevin C; Polgreen, Philip M

2015-11-18

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been increasingly studied as a life support modality, but it is unclear if its use has changed over time. Recent publication shows no significant trend in use of ECMO over time; however, this report does not include more recent data. We performed trend analysis to determine if and when the use of ECMO changed in the past decade. We identified hospitalizations (2000-2011) in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample during which ECMO was recorded. We used a segmented linear regression model to determine trend and to identify a temporal change point when rate of ECMO use increased. ECMO use gradually grew until 2007, at which time there was a dramatic increase in the rate (p = 0.0003). There was no difference in mortality after 2007 (p = 0.3374), but there was longer length of stay (p = 0.0001) and smaller percentage of women (p = 0.005). There has been a marked increase in ECMO use since 2007. As ECMO use becomes more common, further study regarding indications, cost-effectiveness, and outcomes is warranted to guide optimal use.

On baseline corrections and uncertainty in response spectrafor baseline variations commonly encountered in digital accelerograph records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Akkar, Sinan; Boore, David M.

2009-01-01

Most digital accelerograph recordings are plagued by long-period drifts, best seen in the velocity and displacement time series obtained from integration of the acceleration time series. These drifts often result in velocity values that are nonzero near the end of the record. This is clearly unphysical and can lead to inaccurate estimates of peak ground displacement and long-period spectral response. The source of the long-period noise seems to be variations in the acceleration baseline in many cases. These variations could be due to true ground motion (tilting and rotation, as well as local permanent ground deformation), instrumental effects, or analog-to-digital conversion. Very often the trends in velocity are well approximated by a linear trend after the strong shaking subsides. The linearity of the trend in velocity implies that no variations in the baseline could have occurred after the onset of linearity in the velocity time series. This observation, combined with the lack of any trends in the pre-event motion, allows us to compute the time interval in which any baseline variations could occur. We then use several models of the variations in a Monte Carlo procedure to derive a suite of baseline-corrected accelerations for each noise model using records from the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake and several earthquakes in Turkey. Comparisons of the mean values of the peak ground displacements, spectral displacements, and residual displacements computed from these corrected accelerations for the different noise models can be used as a guide to the accuracy of the baseline corrections. For many of the records considered here the mean values are similar for each noise model, giving confidence in the estimation of the mean values. The dispersion of the ground-motion measures increases with period and is noise-model dependent. The dispersion of inelastic spectra is greater than the elastic spectra at short periods but approaches that of the elastic spectra at longer periods. The elastic spectra from the most basic processing, in which only the pre-event mean is removed from the acceleration time series, do not diverge from the baseline-corrected spectra until periods of 10-20 sec or more for the records studied here, implying that for many engineering purposes elastic spectra can be used from records with no baseline correction or filtering.

Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Shyla A.

2003-01-01

Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

Major Crustal Fault Zone Trends and Their Relation to Mineral Belts in the North-Central Great Basin, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, Brian D.; Sampson, Jay A.; Williams, Jackie M.

2007-01-01

The Great Basin physiographic province covers a large part of the western United States and contains one of the world's leading gold-producing areas, the Carlin Trend. In the Great Basin, many sedimentary-rock-hosted disseminated gold deposits occur along such linear mineral-occurrence trends. The distribution and genesis of these deposits is not fully understood, but most models indicate that regional tectonic structures play an important role in their spatial distribution. Over 100 magnetotelluric (MT) soundings were acquired between 1994 and 2001 by the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate crustal structures that may underlie the linear trends in north-central Nevada. MT sounding data were used to map changes in electrical resistivity as a function of depth that are related to subsurface lithologic and structural variations. Two-dimensional (2-D) resistivity modeling of the MT data reveals primarily northerly and northeasterly trending narrow 2-D conductors (1 to 30 ohm-m) extending to mid-crustal depths (5-20 km) that are interpreted to be major crustal fault zones. There are also a few westerly and northwesterly trending 2-D conductors. However, the great majority of the inferred crustal fault zones mapped using MT are perpendicular or oblique to the generally accepted trends. The correlation of strike of three crustal fault zones with the strike of the Carlin and Getchell trends and the Alligator Ridge district suggests they may have been the root fluid flow pathways that fed faults and fracture networks at shallower levels where gold precipitated in favorable host rocks. The abundant northeasterly crustal structures that do not correlate with the major trends may be structures that are open to fluid flow at the present time.

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

On the Response of Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) Stratospheric Oxone and Temperature to the 11-yr Solar Cycle Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, E. E.

2008-01-01

Results are presented on responses in 14-yr time series of stratospheric ozone and temperature from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) to a solar cycle (SC-like) variation. The ozone time series are for ten, 20-degree wide, latitude bins from 45S to 45N and for thirteen "half-Umkehr" layers of about 2.5 km thickness and extending from 63 hPa to 0.7 hPa. The temperature time series analyses were restricted to pressure levels in the range of 2 hPa to 0.7 hPa. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were applied to each of the 130 time series of zonally-averaged, sunrise plus sunset ozone points over that latitude/pressure domain. A simple, 11-yr periodic term and a linear trend term were added to the final MLR models after their seasonal and interannual terms had been determined. Where the amplitudes of the 11-yr terms were significant, they were in-phase with those of the more standard proxies for the solar uv-flux. The max minus min response for ozone is of order 2 to 3% from about 2 to 5 hPa and for the latitudes of 45S to 45N. There is also a significant max minus min response of order 1 K for temperature between 15S and 15N and from 2 to 0.7 hPa. The associated linear trends for ozone are near zero in the upper stratosphere. Negative ozone trends of 4 to 6%/decade were found at 10 to 20 hPa across the low to middle latitudes of both hemispheres. It is concluded that the analyzed responses from the HALOE data are of good quality and can be used to evaluate the responses of climate/chemistry models to a solar cycle forcing.

Trends in bullying victimization by gender among U.S. high school students.

PubMed

Pontes, Nancy M H; Ayres, Cynthia G; Lewandowski, Carla; Pontes, Manuel C F

2018-06-01

This research used four consecutive waves of data from the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) conducted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), to estimate linear time trends by gender in the prevalence of school and electronic bullying victimization among U.S. high school students (N = 61,042). Dependent variables were student self-reported school bullying victimization and electronic bullying victimization during the previous 12 months. Independent variables used to estimate multiple logistic regression models by gender were survey year, race/ethnicity, and grade level. Results showed the prevalence of school bullying increased significantly among females from 2009 (21.2%) to 2015 (24.8%), linear trend OR = 1.08 [1.04, 1.12]; and decreased significantly among males from 2009 (18.7%) to 2015 (15.8%), linear trend OR = 0.93 [0.89, 0.98]. Prevalence of electronic bullying was unchanged between 2011 to 2015 among both male and female students. Asian race, relative to White race, was associated with significantly lower rates of both school and electronic bullying victimization among females, but not males. The incidence of school and electronic bullying victimization was significantly lower among Black and Hispanic students, but not among multiple-race students, regardless of student gender. Healthy People 2020 set a goal to reduce school bullying victimization 10% by 2019. As of 2015, school bullying victimization decreased significantly among males (16% decrease); it significantly increased among females (17% increase). Future research should explore underlying factors related to these divergent trends, and develop effective strategies to reverse the alarming rise in female school bullying victimization. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

2012-01-01

Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent concentration and three explanatory variables—the natural log of discharge, time, and season. ESTIMATOR uses two additional explanatory variables—the square of the log of discharge and time-squared. Both models determine coefficients for variables for a series of estimation windows. ESTIMATOR establishes variable coefficients for a series of 9-year moving windows; all observed constituent concentration data within the 9-year window are used to establish each coefficient. Conversely, WRTDS establishes variable coefficients for each combination of discharge and time using only observed concentration data that are similar in time, season, and discharge to the day being estimated. As a result of these distinguishing characteristics, ESTIMATOR reproduces concentration-discharge relations that are closely approximated by a quadratic or linear function with respect to both the log of discharge and time. Conversely, the linear model form of WRTDS coupled with extensive model windowing for each combination of discharge and time allows WRTDS to reproduce observed concentration-discharge relations that are more sinuous in form. Another distinction between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS is the reporting of uncertainty associated with the model estimates of flux and trend. ESTIMATOR quantifies the standard error of prediction associated with the determination of flux and trends. The standard error of prediction enables the determination of the 95-percent confidence intervals for flux and trend as well as the ability to test whether the reported trend is significantly different from zero (where zero equals no trend). Conversely, WRTDS is unable to propagate error through the many (over 5,000) models for unique combinations of flow and time to determine a total standard error. As a result, WRTDS flux estimates are not reported with confidence intervals and a level of significance is not determined for flow-normalized fluxes. The differences between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS, with regard to model form and determination of model coefficients, have an influence on the determination of nutrient and sediment fluxes and associated changes in flux over time as a result of management activities. The comparison between the model estimates of flux and trend was made for combinations of five water-quality constituents at nine River Input Monitoring stations. The major findings with regard to nutrient and sediment fluxes are as follows: (1)WRTDS produced estimates of flux for all combinations that were more accurate, based on reduction in root mean squared error, than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (2) for 67 percent of the combinations, WRTDS and ESTIMATOR both produced estimates of flux that were minimally biased compared to observed fluxes(flux bias = tendency to over or underpredict flux observations); however, for 33 percent of the combinations, WRTDS produced estimates of flux that were considerably less biased (by at least 10 percent) than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (3) the average percent difference in annual fluxes generated by ESTIMATOR and WRTDS was less than 10 percent at 80 percent of the combinations; and (4) the greatest differences related to flux bias and annual fluxes all occurred for combinations where the pattern in observed concentration-discharge relation was sinuous (two points of inflection) rather than linear or quadratic (zero or one point of inflection). The major findings with regard to trends are as follows: (1) both models produce water-quality trends that have factored in the year-to-year variations in flow; (2) trends in water-quality condition are represented by ESTIMATOR as a trend in flow-adjusted concentration and by WRTDS as a flow normalized flux; (3) for 67 percent of the combinations with trend estimates, the WRTDS trends in flow-normalized flux are in the same direction and magnitude to the ESTIMATOR trends in flow-adjusted concentration, and at the remaining 33 percent the differences in trend magnitude and direction are related to fundamental differences between concentration and flux; and (4) the majority (85 percent) of the total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus combinations exhibited long-term (1985 to 2010) trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate improvement or reduction in associated flux and the majority (83 percent) of the total phosphorus (from 1985 to 2010) and suspended sediment (from 2001 to 2010) combinations exhibited trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate degradation or increases in the flux delivered.

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhe; Fu, Yingchun; Woodcock, Curtis; Olofsson, Pontus; Vogelmann, James; Holden, Christopher; Wang, Min; Dai, Shu; Yu, Yang

2016-01-01

An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

A statistical package for computing time and frequency domain analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brownlow, J.

1978-01-01

The spectrum analysis (SPA) program is a general purpose digital computer program designed to aid in data analysis. The program does time and frequency domain statistical analyses as well as some preanalysis data preparation. The capabilities of the SPA program include linear trend removal and/or digital filtering of data, plotting and/or listing of both filtered and unfiltered data, time domain statistical characterization of data, and frequency domain statistical characterization of data.

Age and Employee Green Behaviors: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Wiernik, Brenton M.; Dilchert, Stephan; Ones, Deniz S.

2016-01-01

Recent economic and societal developments have led to an increasing emphasis on organizational environmental performance. At the same time, demographic trends are resulting in increasingly aging labor forces in many industrialized nations. Commonly held stereotypes suggest that older workers are less likely to be environmentally responsible than younger workers. To evaluate the degree to which such age differences are present, we meta-analyzed 132 independent correlations and 336 d-values based on 4676 professional workers from 22 samples in 11 countries. Contrary to popular stereotypes, age showed small positive relationships with pro-environmental behaviors, suggesting that older adults engaged in these workplace behaviors slightly more frequently. Relationships with age appeared to be linear for overall, Conserving, Avoiding Harm, and Taking Initiative pro-environmental behaviors, but non-linear trends were observed for Transforming and Influencing Others behaviors. PMID:26973550

Language and country preponderance trends in MEDLINE and its causes.

PubMed

Loria, Alvar; Arroyo, Pedro

2005-07-01

The authors characterized the output of MEDLINE papers by language and country of publication during a thirty-four-year time period. We classified MEDLINE's journal articles by country of publication (Anglos/Non-Anglos) and language (English/Non-English) for the years 1966 and from 1970 to 2000 at five-year intervals. Eight English-speaking countries were considered Anglos. Linear regression analysis of number of papers versus time was performed. The global number of papers increased linearly at a rate of 8,142 papers per year. Anglo and English papers also increased linearly (6,740 and 9,199, respectively). Journals of Non-Anglo countries accounted for 25% of the English language increase (2,438 per year). Only Non-English papers decreased at a rate of 1,056 fewer papers per year. These trends have led to overwhelming shares of English and Anglo papers in MEDLINE. In 2000, 68% of all papers were published in the 8 Anglo countries and 90% were written in English. The Anglo and English preponderances appear to be a consequence of at least two phenomena: (1) editorial policy changes in MEDLINE and in some journals from Non-Anglo countries and (2) factors affecting Non-Anglo researchers in the third world (publication constraints, migration, and undersupport). These are tentative conclusions that need confirmation.

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Neuroendocrine aspects of primary endogenous depression. XV: Mathematical modeling of nocturnal melatonin secretion in major depressives and normal controls.

PubMed

Sekula, L K; Lucke, J F; Heist, E K; Czambel, R K; Rubin, R T

1997-03-24

We previously reported a trend toward a higher mean nocturnal serum melatonin (MEL) concentration, based on 30-min blood sampling over 24 h, in 23 female definite endogenous depressive compared to 23 matched normal female control subjects, and no significant difference in 15 male depressives compared to their controls (Rubin et al., 1992). In both groups of patients vs. their controls, there also were trends toward an earlier MEL rise time, by about 30 min, and a later MEL peak time, by about 90 min. Because the offset of MEL secretion was not estimated in that study, the total duration of MEL secretion could not be determined. To further delineate the nocturnal MEL secretion curve, we modeled the MEL data by a linear-Beta model, a four-parameter adaptation of the Beta function. One parameter accounted-for baseline (diurnal) MEL concentration, two accounted for the shapes of the ascending and descending phases of the nocturnal secretion curve, and the fourth accounted for the area under the curve. The model permitted estimation of the start, peak, and end times of nocturnal MEL secretion. There again was a trend toward a higher mean nocturnal MEL concentration in the female depressives compared to their matched controls. There were no significant patient-control differences in secretion onset or peak times in either the women or the men except for nocturnal MEL offset time: the female patients had a trend toward a later offset time, by about 40 min, than their controls; this difference was not present in the men. With women and men analyzed together, the difference in nocturnal MEL offset time between patients and controls just reached significance (P < 0.05). The linear-Beta model appears to satisfactorily fit the MEL data and provides estimators of the onset, peak, and offset times of the activation phase of MEL secretion. This model may be applicable to more severely skewed 24-h hormone secretion curves, such as ACTH and cortisol.

Trend in frequency of extreme precipitation events over Ontario from ensembles of multiple GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Ziwang; Qiu, Xin; Liu, Jinliang; Madras, Neal; Wang, Xiaogang; Zhu, Huaiping

2016-05-01

As one of the most important extreme weather event types, extreme precipitation events have significant impacts on human and natural environment. This study assesses the projected long term trends in frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation events represented by heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, very wet days and extreme wet days over Ontario, based on results of 21 CMIP3 GCM runs. To achieve this goal, first, all model data are linearly interpolated onto 682 grid points (0.45° × 0.45°) in Ontario; Next, biases in model daily precipitation amount are corrected with a local intensity scaling method to make the total wet days and total wet day precipitation from each of the GCMs are consistent with that from the climate forecast system reanalysis data, and then the four indices are estimated for each of the 21 GCM runs for 1968-2000, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. After that, with the assumption that the rate parameter of the Poisson process for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events may vary with time as climate changes, the Poisson regression model which expresses the log rate as a linear function of time is used to detect the trend in frequency of extreme events in the GCMs simulations; Finally, the trends and their uncertainty are estimated. The result shows that in the twenty-first century annual heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days and very wet days and extreme wet days are likely to significantly increase over major parts of Ontario and particularly heavy precipitation days, very wet days are very likely to significantly increase in some sub-regions in eastern Ontario. However, trends of seasonal indices are not significant.

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Increasing prominence of implantology research: a chronological trend analysis of 100 top-cited articles in periodontal journals.

PubMed

Chiang, Ho-Sheng; Huang, Ren-Yeong; Weng, Pei-Wei; Mau, Lian-Ping; Su, Chi-Chun; Tsai, Yi-Wen Cathy; Wu, Yu-Chiao; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Shieh, Yi-Shing; Cheng, Wan-Chien

To identify 100 top-cited articles published in periodontal journals and analyse the research trends by using citation analysis. 100 top-cited articles published in periodontal journals were retrieved by searching the database of the ISI Web of Science and Journal Citation reports. For each article, the following principal bibliometric parameters: authorship, geographic and institute origin, manuscript type, study design, scope of study, and citation count of each time period were analysed from 1965 to 2015. The identified 100 top-cited articles were retrieved from five periodontal journals and citation counts were recorded between 262 and 1,693 times. For the institute of origin, the most productive institute, in terms of the number of 100 top-cited articles published, was the University of Gothenburg (Sweden) (n = 19), followed by the Forsyth Dental Center (USA) (n = 15). Most manuscripts were original research (n = 74), and the inflammatory periodontal disease (n = 59) was the most frequent topic studied. Interestingly, the trend of increase average citation reached significance for implantology (β = 26.75, P = 0.003) and systemic interactions (β = 29.83, P = 0.005), but not for inflammatory disease (β = -10.30, P = 0.248) and tissue regeneration (β = 9.04, P = 0.081). By using multivariable linear regression in a generalised linear model, suitable published journal (Journal of Clinical Periodontology), geographic regions (Europe), more intense international collaboration, adequate manuscript type (review article) and study design (systematic review) could be attributed to escalating average citation counts in implantology (all P < 0.05). However, for systemic interactions, only geographic region and study design were significantly associated with the increasing citation trend. These principal bibliometric characteristics revealed escalated trends in average citation count in implantology throughout time. Conflict-of-interest statement The authors have stated explicitly that there are no conflicts of interest in connection with this article. The study was self-funded by the authors and their institution.

Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Brown, Ross D.

2007-11-01

Monotonic trend analysis of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) over the period 1972-2006 with the Mann-Kendall test reveals significant declines in SCE during spring over North America and Eurasia, with lesser declines during winter and some increases in fall SCE. The weekly mean trend attains -1.28, -0.78, and -0.48 × 106 km2 (35 years)-1 over the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Eurasia, respectively. The standardized SCE time series vary and trend coherently over Eurasia and North America, with evidence of a poleward amplification of decreasing SCE trends during spring. Multiple linear regression analyses reveal a significant dependence of the retreat of the spring continental SCE on latitude and elevation. The poleward amplification is consistent with an enhanced snow-albedo feedback over northern latitudes that acts to reinforce an initial anomaly in the cryospheric system.

Hardness and compression resistance of natural rubber and synthetic rubber mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arguello, J. M.; Santos, A.

2016-02-01

This project aims to mechanically characterize through compression resistance and shore hardness tests, the mixture of hevea brasiliensis natural rubber with butadiene synthetic rubber (BR), styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and ethylene-propylene-diene monomer rubber (EPDM). For each of the studied mixtures were performed 10 tests, each of which increased by 10% the content of synthetic rubber in the mixture; each test consisted of carrying out five tests of compression resistance and five tests of shore hardness. The specimens were vulcanized on a temperature of 160°C, during an approximate time of 15 minutes, and the equipment used in the performance of the mechanical tests were a Shimadzu universal machine and a digital durometer. The results show that the A shore hardness increases directly proportional, with a linear trend, with the content of synthetic BR, SBR or EPDM rubber present in the mixture, being the EPDM the most influential. With respect to the compression resistance is observed that the content of BR or SBR increase this property directly proportional through a linear trend; while the EPDM content also increases but with a polynomial trend.

A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany☆

PubMed Central

Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M.; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time. PMID:24493876

A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany.

PubMed

Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

2014-02-01

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time.

Trends in abuse and misuse of prescription opioids among older adults.

PubMed

West, Nancy A; Severtson, Stevan G; Green, Jody L; Dart, Richard C

2015-04-01

Dramatic increases in the prescriptive use of opioid analgesics during the past two decades have been paralleled by alarming increases in rates of the abuse and intentional misuse of these drugs. We examined recent trends in the abuse and misuse and associated fatal outcomes among older adults (60+ years) and compared these to trends among younger adults (20-59 years). Trend analysis using linear regression models was used to analyze 184,136 cases and 1149 deaths associated with abuse and misuse of the prescription opioids oxycodone, fentanyl, hydrocodone, morphine, oxymorphone, hydromorphone, methadone, buprenorphine, tramadol, and tapentadol that were reported to participating U.S. Poison Centers of the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS(®)) System between 2006-Q1 and 2013-Q4. Rates of abuse and misuse of prescription opioids were lower for older adults than for younger adults; however, mortality rates among the older ages followed an increasing linear trend (P < 0.0001) and surpassed rates for younger adults in 2012 and 2013. In contrast, mortality rates among younger adults rose and fell during the period, with recent rates trending downward (P = 0.0003 for quadratic trend). Sub-analysis revealed an increasing linear trend among older adults specifically for suicidal intent (P < 0.0001), whereas these rates increased and then decreased among younger adults (P < 0.0001 for quadratic trend). Recent linear increases in rates of death and use of prescription opioids with suicidal intent among older adults have important implications as the U.S. undergoes a rapid expansion of its elderly population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cigarette sales in pharmacies in the USA (2005-2009).

PubMed

Seidenberg, Andrew B; Behm, Ilan; Rees, Vaughan W; Connolly, Gregory N

2012-09-01

Several US jurisdictions have adopted policies prohibiting pharmacies from selling tobacco products. Little is known about how pharmacies contribute to total cigarette sales. Pharmacy and total cigarette sales in the USA were tabulated from AC Nielsen and Euromonitor, respectively, for the years 2005-2009. Linear regression was used to characterise trends over time, with observed trends extrapolated to 2020. Between 2005 and 2009, pharmacy cigarette sales increased 22.72% (p=0.004), while total cigarette sales decreased 17.43% (p=0.015). In 2005, pharmacy cigarette sales represented 3.05% of total cigarette sales, increasing to 4.54% by 2009. Extrapolation of these findings resulted in estimated pharmacy cigarette sales of 14.59% of total US cigarette sales by 2020. Cigarette sales in American pharmacies have risen in recent years, while cigarette sales nationally have declined. If current trends continue, pharmacy cigarette market share will, by 2020, increase to more than four times the 2005 share.

An introduction to modeling longitudinal data with generalized additive models: applications to single-case designs.

PubMed

Sullivan, Kristynn J; Shadish, William R; Steiner, Peter M

2015-03-01

Single-case designs (SCDs) are short time series that assess intervention effects by measuring units repeatedly over time in both the presence and absence of treatment. This article introduces a statistical technique for analyzing SCD data that has not been much used in psychological and educational research: generalized additive models (GAMs). In parametric regression, the researcher must choose a functional form to impose on the data, for example, that trend over time is linear. GAMs reverse this process by letting the data inform the choice of functional form. In this article we review the problem that trend poses in SCDs, discuss how current SCD analytic methods approach trend, describe GAMs as a possible solution, suggest a GAM model testing procedure for examining the presence of trend in SCDs, present a small simulation to show the statistical properties of GAMs, and illustrate the procedure on 3 examples of different lengths. Results suggest that GAMs may be very useful both as a form of sensitivity analysis for checking the plausibility of assumptions about trend and as a primary data analysis strategy for testing treatment effects. We conclude with a discussion of some problems with GAMs and some future directions for research on the application of GAMs to SCDs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Behavior-over-time graphs: assessing perceived trends in healthy eating and active living environments and behaviors across 49 communities.

PubMed

Hoehner, Christine M; Sabounchi, Nasim S; Brennan, Laura K; Hovmand, Peter; Kemner, Allison

2015-01-01

In the evaluation of the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities initiative, investigators implemented Group Model Building (GMB) to promote systems thinking at the community level. As part of the GMB sessions held in each community partnership, participants created behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) to characterize their perceptions of changes over time related to policies, environments, collaborations, and social determinants in their community related to healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. To describe the process of coding BOTGs and their trends. Descriptive study of trends among BOTGs from 11 domains (eg, active living environments, social determinants of health, funding) and relevant categories and subcategories based on the graphed variables. In addition, BOTGs were distinguished by whether the variables were positively (eg, access to healthy foods) or negatively (eg, screen time) associated with health. The GMB sessions were held in 49 community partnerships across the United States. Participants in the GMB sessions (n = 590; n = 5-21 per session) included key individuals engaged in or impacted by the policy, system, or environmental changes occurring in the community. Thirty codes were developed to describe the direction (increasing, decreasing, stable) and shape (linear, reinforcing, balancing, or oscillating) of trends from 1660 graphs. The patterns of trends varied by domain. For example, among variables positively associated with health, the prevalence of reinforcing increasing trends was highest for active living and healthy eating environments (37.4% and 29.3%, respectively), partnership and community capacity (38.8%), and policies (30.2%). Examination of trends of specific variables suggested both convergence (eg, for cost of healthy foods) and divergence (eg, for farmers' markets) of trends across partnerships. Behavior-over-time graphs provide a unique data source for understanding community-level trends and, when combined with causal maps and computer modeling, can yield insights about prevention strategies to address childhood obesity.

Night-time lights: A global, long term look at links to socio-economic trends

PubMed Central

Zavala-Araiza, Daniel; Wagner, Gernot

2017-01-01

We use a parallelized spatial analytics platform to process the twenty-one year totality of the longest-running time series of night-time lights data—the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) dataset—surpassing the narrower scope of prior studies to assess changes in area lit of countries globally. Doing so allows a retrospective look at the global, long-term relationships between night-time lights and a series of socio-economic indicators. We find the strongest correlations with electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and GDP, followed by population, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, poverty (inverse) and F-gas emissions. Relating area lit to electricity consumption shows that while a basic linear model provides a good statistical fit, regional and temporal trends are found to have a significant impact. PMID:28346500

Integration of altimetric lake levels and GRACE gravimetry over Africa: Inferences for terrestrial water storage change 2003-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, P.; Williams, S. D. P.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) change for 2003-2011 is estimated over Africa from GRACE gravimetric data. The signatures from change in water of the major lakes are removed by utilizing kernel functions with lake heights recovered from retracked ENVISAT satellite altimetry. In addition, the contribution of gravimetric change due to soil moisture and biomass is removed from the total GRACE signal by utilizing the GLDAS land surface model. The residual TWS time series, namely groundwater and the surface waters in rivers, wetlands, and small lakes, are investigated for trends and the seasonal cycle using linear regression. Typically, such analyses assume that the data are temporally uncorrelated but this has been shown to lead to erroneous inferences in related studies concerning the linear rate and acceleration. In this study, we utilize autocorrelation and investigate the appropriate stochastic model. The results show the proper distribution of TWS change and identify the spatial distribution of significant rates and accelerations. The effect of surface water in the major lakes is shown to contribute significantly to the trend and seasonal variation in TWS in the lake basin. Lake Volta, a managed reservoir in Ghana, is seen to have a contribution to the linear trend that is a factor of three greater than that of Lake Victoria despite having a surface area one-eighth of that of Lake Victoria. Analysis also shows the confidence levels of the deterministic trend and acceleration identifying areas where the signatures are most likely due to a physical deterministic cause and not simply stochastic variations.

Identification of trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhajharia, Deepak; Yadav, Brijesh K.; Maske, Sunil; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Kar, Anil K.

2012-01-01

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.

Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series

PubMed Central

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha−1 year−1 in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale. PMID:24205280

Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

PubMed

Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P < 0.05 in 19 patients and P > 0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

The Effect of Primary School Size on Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gershenson, Seth; Langbein, Laura

2015-01-01

Evidence on optimal school size is mixed. We estimate the effect of transitory changes in school size on the academic achievement of fourth-and fifth-grade students in North Carolina using student-level longitudinal administrative data. Estimates of value-added models that condition on school-specific linear time trends and a variety of…

Essays on Applied Microeconomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mejia Mantilla, Carolina

2013-01-01

Each chapter of this dissertation studies a different question within the field of Applied Microeconomics. The first chapter examines the mid- and long-term effects of the 1998 Asian Crisis on the educational attainment of Indonesian children ages 6 to 18, at the time of the crisis. The effects are identified as deviations from a linear trend for…

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity II. Statistical analysis of floods in Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

This paper, the second of a two-part paper, investigates the nonstationary behaviour of flood peaks in Quebec (Canada) by analyzing the annual maximum flow series (AMS) available for the common 1966-2001 period from a network of 32 watersheds. Temporal trends in the mean of flood peaks were examined by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The significance of the detected trends over the whole province is also assessed by a bootstrap test that preserves the cross-correlation structure of the network. Furthermore, The LM-NS method (introduced in the first part) is used to parametrically model the AMS, investigating its applicability to real data, to account for temporal trends in the moments of the time series. In this study two probability distributions (GEV & Gumbel) were selected to model four different types of time-varying moments of the historical time series considered, comprising eight competing models. The selected models are: two stationary models (GEV0 & Gumbel0), two nonstationary models in the mean as a linear function of time (GEV1 & Gumbel1), two nonstationary models in the mean as a parabolic function of time (GEV2 & Gumbel2), and two nonstationary models in the mean and the log standard deviation as linear functions of time (GEV11 & Gumbel11). The eight models were applied to flood data available for each watershed and their performance was compared to identify the best model for each location. The comparative methodology involves two phases: (1) a descriptive ability based on likelihood-based optimality criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the deviance statistic; and (2) a predictive ability based on the residual bootstrap. According to the Mann-Kendall test and the LM-NS method, a quarter of the analyzed stations show significant trends in the AMS. All of the significant trends are negative, indicating decreasing flood magnitudes in Quebec. It was found that the LM-NS method could provide accurate flood estimates in the context of nonstationarity. The results have indicated the importance of taking into consideration the nonstationary behaviour of the flood series in order to improve the quality of flood estimation. The results also provided a general impression on the possible impacts of climate change on flood estimation in the Quebec province.

Birth characteristics, maternal reproductive history, and the risk of infant leukemia: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Spector, Logan G; Davies, Stella M; Robison, Leslie L; Hilden, Joanne M; Roesler, Michelle; Ross, Julie A

2007-01-01

Leukemias with MLL gene rearrangements predominate in infants (<1 year of age), but not in older children, and may have a distinct etiology. High birth weight, higher birth order, and prior fetal loss have, with varying consistency, been associated with infant leukemia, but no studies have reported results with respect to MLL status. Here, we report for the first time such an analysis. During 1999 to 2003, mothers of 240 incident cases (113 MLL(+), 80 MLL(-), and 47 indeterminate) and 255 random digit dialed controls completed a telephone interview. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartile of birth weight, birth order, gestational age, maternal age at delivery, prior fetal loss, pre-pregnancy body mass index, and weight gain during pregnancy were obtained using unconditional logistic regression; P for linear trend was obtained by modeling continuous variables. There was a borderline significant linear trend of increasing birth weight with MLL(+) (P = 0.06), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.93), infant leukemia. Increasing birth order showed a significant inverse linear trend, independent of birth weight, with MLL(+) (P = 0.01), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.18), infant leukemia. Other variables of interest were not notably associated with infant leukemia regardless of MLL status. This investigation further supports the contention that molecularly defined subtypes of infant leukemia have separate etiologies.

Observation of glassy state relaxation during annealing of frozen sugar solutions by X-ray computed tomography.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Kyuya; Tamiya, Shinri; Do, Gabsoo; Kono, Shinji; Ochiai, Takaaki

2018-06-01

Glassy phase formation in a frozen product determines various properties of the freeze-dried products. When an aqueous solution is subjected to freezing, a glassy phase forms as a consequence of freeze-concentration. During post-freezing annealing, the relaxation of the glassy phase and the ripening of ice crystals (i.e. Ostwald ripening) spontaneously occur, where the kinetics are controlled by the annealing and glass transition temperatures. This study was motivated to observe the progress of glassy state relaxation separate from ice coarsening during annealing. X-ray computed tomography (CT) was used to observe a frozen and post-freezing annealed solutions by using monochromatized X-ray from the synchrotron radiation. CT images were successfully obtained, and the frozen matrix were analyzed based on the gray level values that were equivalent to the linear X-ray attenuation coefficients of the observed matters. The CT images obtained from rapidly frozen sucrose and dextrin solutions with different concentrations gave clear linear relationships between the linear X-ray attenuation coefficients values and the solute concentrations. It was confirmed that the glassy state relaxation progressed as increasing annealing time, and this trend was larger in the order of the glass transition temperature of the maximally freeze-concentrated phase. The sucrose-water system required nearly 20 h of annealing time at -5 °C for the completion of the glassy phase relaxation, whereas dextrin-water systems required much longer periods because of their higher glass transition temperatures. The trends of ice coarsening, however, did not perfectly correspond to the trends of the relaxation, suggesting that the glassy phase relaxation and Ostwald ripening would jointly control the ice crystal growth/ripening kinetics, and the dominant mechanism differed by the annealing stage. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health, behavioral, cognitive, and social correlates of breakfast skipping among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods.

PubMed

Smith, Kylie J; McNaughton, Sarah A; Cleland, Verity J; Crawford, David; Ball, Kylie

2013-11-01

Breakfast skipping is a potentially modifiable behavior that has negative effects on health and is socioeconomically patterned. This study aimed to examine the intrapersonal (health, behavioral, and cognitive) and social factors associated with breakfast skipping. Nonpregnant women (n = 4123) aged 18-45 y from socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods throughout Victoria, Australia, completed a postal questionnaire. Sociodemographic characteristics, diet, physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and cognitive and social factors were assessed by self-report. Breakfast skipping was defined in 2 ways: 1) "rarely/never" eating breakfast (n = 498) and 2) eating breakfast ≤2 d/wk (includes those who rarely/never ate breakfast; n = 865). Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence ratios and linear trends, adjusting for covariates. The P values for linear trends are reported below. Compared with breakfast consumers, women who reported rarely/never eating breakfast tended to have poorer self-rated health (P-trend < 0.001), be current smokers (P-trend < 0.001), pay less attention to health (P-trend < 0.001), not prioritize their own healthy eating when busy looking after their family (P-trend < 0.001), have less nutrition knowledge (P-trend < 0.001), and a lower proportion were trying to control their weight (P-trend < 0.020). When breakfast skipping was defined as eating breakfast ≤2 d/wk, additional associations were found for having lower leisure-time physical activity (P-trend = 0.012) and less self-efficacy for eating a healthy diet (P-trend < 0.043). In conclusion, a range of intrapersonal and social factors were significantly associated with breakfast skipping among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Acknowledging the cross-sectional design and need for causal confirmation, programs that aim to promote breakfast consumption in this population group should consider targeting family-related barriers to healthy eating and nutrition knowledge.

Geologic and mineral and water resources investigations in western Colorado using ERTS-1 data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knepper, D. H. (Principal Investigator)

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Most of the geologic information in ERTS-1 imagery can be extracted from bulk processed black and white transparencies by a skilled interpreter using standard photogeologic techniques. In central and western Colorado, the detectability of lithologic contacts on ERTS-1 imagery is closely related to the time of year the imagery was acquired. Geologic structures are the most readily extractable type of geologic information contained in ERTS images. Major tectonic features and associated minor structures can be rapidly mapped, allowing the geologic setting of a large region to be quickly accessed. Trends of geologic structures in younger sedimentary appear to strongly parallel linear trends in older metamorphic and igneous basement terrain. Linears and color anomalies mapped from ERTS imagery are closely related to loci of known mineralization in the Colorado mineral belt.

Functional Multi-Locus QTL Mapping of Temporal Trends in Scots Pine Wood Traits

PubMed Central

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R.; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; García-Gil, M. Rosario

2014-01-01

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. PMID:25305041

Functional multi-locus QTL mapping of temporal trends in Scots pine wood traits.

PubMed

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J; García-Gil, M Rosario

2014-10-09

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. Copyright © 2014 Li et al.

Temporal trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study.

PubMed

Jean, Sonia; Hudson, Marie; Gamache, Philippe; Bessette, Louis; Fortin, Paul R; Boire, Gilles; Bernatsky, Sasha

2017-12-01

Health administrative data are a potentially efficient resource to conduct population-based research and surveillance, including trends in incidence and mortality over time. Our objective was to explore time trends in incidence and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as well as estimating period prevalence. Our RA case definition was based on one or more hospitalizations with a RA diagnosis code, or three or more RA physician-billing codes, over 2 years, with at least one RA billing code by a rheumatologist, orthopedic surgeon, or internist. To identify incident cases, a "run-in" period of 5 years (1996-2000) was used to exclude prevalent cases. Crude age and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated (using data from 2001 to 2015), and sex-specific incidence rates were also standardized to the 2001 age structure of the Quebec population. We linked the RA cohort (both prevalent and incident patients) to the vital statistics registry, and standardized mortality rate ratios were generated. Negative binomial regression was used to test for linear change in standardized incidence rates and mortality ratios. The linear trends in standardized incidence rates did not show significant change over the study period. Mortality in RA was significantly higher than the general population and this remained true throughout the study period. Our prevalence estimate suggested 0.8% of the Quebec population may be affected by RA. RA incidence appeared relatively stable, and mortality was substantially higher in RA versus the general population and remained so over the study period. This suggests the need to optimize long-term RA outcomes.

Secular changes of the M2 tide in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2005-01-01

Analyses of long time series of hourly tide-gauge data at four stations in the Gulf of Maine reveal that the amplitude of the M2 tide underwent a nearly linear secular increase throughout most of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, however, the amplitude of M2 abruptly dropped. Sea level changes alone appear inadequate to explain either the long-term trend or the recent trend discontinuity. Tidal models that account for Holocene sea level rise do predict an amplification of M2, but much smaller than the currently observed trends. Nor do recent annual mean sea levels correlate with the recent trend discontinuity. Some unknown fraction of the open Atlantic may be similarly affected, since the M2 discontinuity, but not the long-term secular increase in the tide, is evident also at Halifax.

The trend of changes in the evaluation scores of faculty members from administrators' and students' perspectives at the medical school over 10 years.

PubMed

Yamani, Nikoo; Changiz, Tahereh; Feizi, Awat; Kamali, Farahnaz

2018-01-01

To assess the trend of changes in the evaluation scores of faculty members and discrepancy between administrators' and students' perspectives in a medical school from 2006 to 2015. This repeated cross-sectional study was conducted on the 10-year evaluation scores of all faculty members of a medical school (n=579) in an urban area of Iran. Data on evaluation scores given by students and administrators and the total of these scores were evaluated. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics including linear mixed effect models for repeated measures via the SPSS software. There were statistically significant differences between the students' and administrators' perspectives over time ( p <0.001). The mean of the total evaluation scores also showed a statistically significant change over time ( p <0.001). Furthermore, the mean of changes over time in the total evaluation score between different departments was statistically significant ( p <0.001). The trend of changes in the student's evaluations was clear and positive, but the trend of administrators' evaluation was unclear. Since the evaluation of faculty members is affected by many other factors, there is a need for more future studies.

National trends in occupational injuries before and after 1992 and predictors of workers' compensation costs.

PubMed

Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J Paul

2011-01-01

Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973-2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992-2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973-2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments.

National Trends in Occupational Injuries Before and After 1992 and Predictors of Workers' Compensation Costs

PubMed Central

Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J. Paul

2011-01-01

Objective Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. Methods We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. Results From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973–2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992–2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. Conclusion We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973–2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments. PMID:21886322

Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of Viral Hepatitis in China (2003-2015): Implications for Prevention and Control Policies.

PubMed

Zhu, Bin; Liu, Jinlin; Fu, Yang; Zhang, Bo; Mao, Ying

2018-04-02

Viral hepatitis, as one of the most serious notifiable infectious diseases in China, takes heavy tolls from the infected and causes a severe economic burden to society, yet few studies have systematically explored the spatio-temporal epidemiology of viral hepatitis in China. This study aims to explore, visualize and compare the epidemiologic trends and spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis (A, B, C, E and unspecified, based on the classification of CDC) at the provincial level in China. The growth rates of incidence are used and converted to box plots to visualize the epidemiologic trends, with the linear trend being tested by chi-square linear by linear association test. Two complementary spatial cluster methods are used to explore the overall agglomeration level and identify spatial clusters: spatial autocorrelation analysis (measured by global and local Moran's I) and space-time scan analysis. Based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, the hotspots of hepatitis A remain relatively stable and gradually shrunk, with Yunnan and Sichuan successively moving out the high-high (HH) cluster area. The HH clustering feature of hepatitis B in China gradually disappeared with time. However, the HH cluster area of hepatitis C has gradually moved towards the west, while for hepatitis E, the provincial units around the Yangtze River Delta region have been revealing HH cluster features since 2005. The space-time scan analysis also indicates the distinct spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis in China. It is easy to conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all plan for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis in all the provincial units. An effective response requires a package of coordinated actions, which should vary across localities regarding the spatial-temporal epidemic dynamics of each type of virus and the specific conditions of each provincial unit.

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

Geomorphic domains and linear features on Landsat images, Circle Quadrangle, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, S.L.

1984-01-01

A remote sensing study using Landsat images was undertaken as part of the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP). Geomorphic domains A and B, identified on enhanced Landsat images, divide Circle quadrangle south of Tintina fault zone into two regional areas having major differences in surface characteristics. Domain A is a roughly rectangular, northeast-trending area of relatively low relief and simple, widely spaced drainages, except where igneous rocks are exposed. In contrast, domain B, which bounds two sides of domain A, is more intricately dissected showing abrupt changes in slope and relatively high relief. The northwestern part of geomorphic domain A includes a previously mapped tectonostratigraphic terrane. The southeastern boundary of domain A occurs entirely within the adjoining tectonostratigraphic terrane. The sharp geomorphic contrast along the southeastern boundary of domain A and the existence of known faults along this boundary suggest that the southeastern part of domain A may be a subdivision of the adjoining terrane. Detailed field studies would be necessary to determine the characteristics of the subdivision. Domain B appears to be divisible into large areas of different geomorphic terrains by east-northeast-trending curvilinear lines drawn on Landsat images. Segments of two of these lines correlate with parts of boundaries of mapped tectonostratigraphic terranes. On Landsat images prominent north-trending lineaments together with the curvilinear lines form a large-scale regional pattern that is transected by mapped north-northeast-trending high-angle faults. The lineaments indicate possible lithlogic variations and/or structural boundaries. A statistical strike-frequency analysis of the linear features data for Circle quadrangle shows that northeast-trending linear features predominate throughout, and that most northwest-trending linear features are found south of Tintina fault zone. A major trend interval of N.64-72E. in the linear feature data, corresponds to the strike of foliations in metamorphic rocks and magnetic anomalies reflecting compositional variations suggesting that most linear features in the southern part of the quadrangle probably are related to lithologic variations brought about by folding and foliation of metamorphic rocks. A second important trend interval, N.14-35E., may be related to thrusting south of the Tintina fault zone, as high concentrations of linear features within this interval are found in areas of mapped thrusts. Low concentrations of linear features are found in areas of most igneous intrusives. High concentrations of linear features do not correspond to areas of mineralization in any consistent or significant way that would allow concentration patterns to be easily used as an aid in locating areas of mineralization. The results of this remote sensing study indicate that there are several possibly important areas where further detailed studies are warranted.

Time series decomposition of remotely sensed land surface temperature and investigation of trends and seasonal variations in surface urban heat islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quan, Jinling; Zhan, Wenfeng; Chen, Yunhao; Wang, Mengjie; Wang, Jinfei

2016-03-01

Previous time series methods have difficulties in simultaneous characterization of seasonal, gradual, and abrupt changes of remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST). This study proposed a model to decompose LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components. The trend component indicates long-term climate change and land development and is described as a piecewise linear function with iterative breakpoint detection. The seasonal component illustrates annual insolation variations and is modeled as a sinusoidal function on the detrended data. This model is able to separate the seasonal variation in LST from the long-term (including gradual and abrupt) change. Model application to nighttime Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/LST time series during 2000-2012 over Beijing yielded an overall root-mean-square error of 1.62 K between the combination of the decomposed trend and seasonal components and the actual MODIS/LSTs. LST decreased (~ -0.086 K/yr, p < 0.1) in 53% of the study area, whereas it increased with breakpoints in 2009 (~0.084 K/yr before and ~0.245 K/yr after 2009) between the fifth and sixth ring roads. The decreasing trend was stronger over croplands than over urban lands (p < 0.05), resulting in an increasing trend in surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII, 0.022 ± 0.006 K/yr). This was mainly attributed to the trends in urban-rural differences in rainfall and albedo. The SUHII demonstrated a concave seasonal variation primarily due to the seasonal variations of urban-rural differences in temperature cooling rate (related to canyon structure, vegetation, and soil moisture) and surface heat dissipation (affected by humidity and wind).

FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Foy, Benjamin; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been estimating NO2 columns from space for over 10 years, and these have been used to estimate emissions and emission trends for point and area sources all over the world. In this study we evaluate the trends in NO2 columns over 54 cities in the USA and Canada to identify the long term trends due to air quality policies, the impact of the Great Recession, and the weekday-weekend effect. A multiple linear regression model is used to fit annual, seasonal and weekly factors for individual swath retrievals along with the impact of temperature, windmore » speed and pixel size. For most cities, the correlation coefficients of the model fit ranges from 0.47 to 0.76. There have been strong reductions in NO2 columns, with annual decreases of up to 7% per year in most cities. During the years of the Great Recession, NO2 columns were as much as 30% lower than they would have been had they followed the linear annual trend. The analysis yielded insights into the timing of the reductions, with some cities in the northwest and in the east experiencing reductions in 2008 already, and most areas back to where they would have been based on the uniform trend by 2011. The analysis also finds that reductions in columns during the weekend vary significantly from city to city, with a range in reductions of 10%-30% on Saturdays, and 20%-50% on Sundays.« less

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of the model is rather poor, and possible explanations are discussed.

Improvements to surrogate data methods for nonstationary time series.

PubMed

Lucio, J H; Valdés, R; Rodríguez, L R

2012-05-01

The method of surrogate data has been extensively applied to hypothesis testing of system linearity, when only one realization of the system, a time series, is known. Normally, surrogate data should preserve the linear stochastic structure and the amplitude distribution of the original series. Classical surrogate data methods (such as random permutation, amplitude adjusted Fourier transform, or iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform) are successful at preserving one or both of these features in stationary cases. However, they always produce stationary surrogates, hence existing nonstationarity could be interpreted as dynamic nonlinearity. Certain modifications have been proposed that additionally preserve some nonstationarity, at the expense of reproducing a great deal of nonlinearity. However, even those methods generally fail to preserve the trend (i.e., global nonstationarity in the mean) of the original series. This is the case of time series with unit roots in their autoregressive structure. Additionally, those methods, based on Fourier transform, either need first and last values in the original series to match, or they need to select a piece of the original series with matching ends. These conditions are often inapplicable and the resulting surrogates are adversely affected by the well-known artefact problem. In this study, we propose a simple technique that, applied within existing Fourier-transform-based methods, generates surrogate data that jointly preserve the aforementioned characteristics of the original series, including (even strong) trends. Moreover, our technique avoids the negative effects of end mismatch. Several artificial and real, stationary and nonstationary, linear and nonlinear time series are examined, in order to demonstrate the advantages of the methods. Corresponding surrogate data are produced with the classical and with the proposed methods, and the results are compared.

Barrier island morphodynamic classification based on lidar metrics for north Assateague Island, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brock, John C.; Krabill, William; Sallenger, Asbury H.

2004-01-01

In order to reap the potential of airborne lidar surveys to provide geological information useful in understanding coastal sedimentary processes acting on various time scales, a new set of analysis methods are needed. This paper presents a multi-temporal lidar analysis of north Assateague Island, Maryland, and demonstrates the calculation of lidar metrics that condense barrier island morphology and morphological change into attributed linear features that may be used to analyze trends in coastal evolution. The new methods proposed in this paper are also of significant practical value, because lidar metric analysis reduces large volumes of point elevations into linear features attributed with essential morphological variables that are ideally suited for inclusion in Geographic Information Systems. A morphodynamic classification of north Assategue Island for a recent 10 month time period that is based on the recognition of simple patterns described by lidar change metrics is presented. Such morphodynamic classification reveals the relative magnitude and the fine scale alongshore variation in the importance of coastal changes over the study area during a defined time period. More generally, through the presentation of this morphodynamic classification of north Assateague Island, the value of lidar metrics in both examining large lidar data sets for coherent trends and in building hypotheses regarding processes driving barrier evolution is demonstrated

On using surface-source downhole-receiver logging to determine seismic slownesses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, D.M.; Thompson, E.M.

2007-01-01

We present a method to solve for slowness models from surface-source downhole-receiver seismic travel-times. The method estimates the slownesses in a single inversion of the travel-times from all receiver depths and accounts for refractions at layer boundaries. The number and location of layer interfaces in the model can be selected based on lithologic changes or linear trends in the travel-time data. The interfaces based on linear trends in the data can be picked manually or by an automated algorithm. We illustrate the method with example sites for which geologic descriptions of the subsurface materials and independent slowness measurements are available. At each site we present slowness models that result from different interpretations of the data. The examples were carefully selected to address the reliability of interface-selection and the ability of the inversion to identify thin layers, large slowness contrasts, and slowness gradients. Additionally, we compare the models in terms of ground-motion amplification. These plots illustrate the sensitivity of site amplifications to the uncertainties in the slowness model. We show that one-dimensional site amplifications are insensitive to thin layers in the slowness models; although slowness is variable over short ranges of depth, this variability has little affect on ground-motion amplification at frequencies up to 5 Hz.

Quantifying the degree of persistence in random amoeboid motion based on the Hurst exponent of fractional Brownian motion.

PubMed

Makarava, Natallia; Menz, Stephan; Theves, Matthias; Huisinga, Wilhelm; Beta, Carsten; Holschneider, Matthias

2014-10-01

Amoebae explore their environment in a random way, unless external cues like, e.g., nutrients, bias their motion. Even in the absence of cues, however, experimental cell tracks show some degree of persistence. In this paper, we analyzed individual cell tracks in the framework of a linear mixed effects model, where each track is modeled by a fractional Brownian motion, i.e., a Gaussian process exhibiting a long-term correlation structure superposed on a linear trend. The degree of persistence was quantified by the Hurst exponent of fractional Brownian motion. Our analysis of experimental cell tracks of the amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum showed a persistent movement for the majority of tracks. Employing a sliding window approach, we estimated the variations of the Hurst exponent over time, which allowed us to identify points in time, where the correlation structure was distorted ("outliers"). Coarse graining of track data via down-sampling allowed us to identify the dependence of persistence on the spatial scale. While one would expect the (mode of the) Hurst exponent to be constant on different temporal scales due to the self-similarity property of fractional Brownian motion, we observed a trend towards stronger persistence for the down-sampled cell tracks indicating stronger persistence on larger time scales.

How is the weather? Forecasting inpatient glycemic control

PubMed Central

Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B; Thompson, Bithika M

2017-01-01

Aim: Apply methods of damped trend analysis to forecast inpatient glycemic control. Method: Observed and calculated point-of-care blood glucose data trends were determined over 62 weeks. Mean absolute percent error was used to calculate differences between observed and forecasted values. Comparisons were drawn between model results and linear regression forecasting. Results: The forecasted mean glucose trends observed during the first 24 and 48 weeks of projections compared favorably to the results provided by linear regression forecasting. However, in some scenarios, the damped trend method changed inferences compared with linear regression. In all scenarios, mean absolute percent error values remained below the 10% accepted by demand industries. Conclusion: Results indicate that forecasting methods historically applied within demand industries can project future inpatient glycemic control. Additional study is needed to determine if forecasting is useful in the analyses of other glucometric parameters and, if so, how to apply the techniques to quality improvement. PMID:29134125

Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Zubko, Viktor

2009-01-01

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together

Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

PubMed Central

Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

2015-01-01

Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641

Version 8 SBUV Ozone Profile Trends Compared with Trends from a Zonally Averaged Chemical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, Joan E.; Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2004-01-01

Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Temperature and geographic attribution of change in the Taraxacum mongolicum growing season from 1990 to 2009 in eastern China's temperate zone.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Tian, Youhua; Xu, Lin

2015-10-01

Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.1 days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.1 days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.1 days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 1 °C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.1 days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 1 °C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.3 days in regional mean growing season end date. A 1 °C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.7 days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 1 °C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 1 °C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.

Temperature and geographic attribution of change in the Taraxacum mongolicum growing season from 1990 to 2009 in eastern China's temperate zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Tian, Youhua; Xu, Lin

2015-10-01

Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.1 days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.1 days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.1 days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 1 °C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.1 days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 1 °C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.3 days in regional mean growing season end date. A 1 °C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.7 days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 1 °C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 1 °C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil.

PubMed

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. Apresentar uma atualização das tendências da mortalidade da asma no Brasil em duas faixas etárias: 0-4 anos e 5-34 anos. Dados relativos ao período de 1980 a 2014 referentes à mortalidade da asma, conforme se definiu na Classificação Internacional de Doenças, foram extraídos Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Departamento de Tecnologia da Informação do Sistema Único de Saúde. Para analisar as tendências temporais das taxas padronizadas de mortalidade da asma, realizou-se um estudo ecológico de séries temporais com modelos de regressão para as faixas etárias de 0 a 4 anos e 5 a 34 anos. Houve uma tendência linear de redução da mortalidade da asma em ambas as faixas etárias e uma tendência polinomial de terceira ordem na população geral. Embora a mortalidade da asma tenha apresentado redução linear consistente em indivíduos com idade ≤ 34 anos, a taxa de declínio foi maior na faixa etária de 0 a 4 anos. A faixa etária de 5 a 34 anos também apresentou redução linear da mortalidade, e essa redução tornou-se mais pronunciada após o ano de 2004, quando o tratamento com corticosteroides inalatórios tornou-se mais amplamente disponível. A redução linear da mortalidade da asma em ambas as faixas etárias contrasta com a tendência não linear observada na população geral do Brasil. A introdução do uso de corticosteroides inalatórios por meio de políticas públicas de controle da asma coincidiu com uma diminuição significativa das taxas de mortalidade da asma em ambos os subgrupos de indivíduos com mais de 5 anos de idade. As causas dessa redução da mortalidade da asma em faixas etárias mais jovens ainda são objeto de debate.

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Land Area Change in Coastal Louisiana: A Multidecadal Perspective (from 1956 to 2006)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John A.; Bernier, Julie C.; Morton, Robert A.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) analyzed changes in the configuration of land and water in coastal Louisiana by using a sequential series of 14 data sets summarizing land and water areas from 1956 to 2006. The purpose of this study is to provide a spatially and temporally consistent source of quantitative information on land area across coastal Louisiana, broken into three physiographic provinces (the term 'coastal Louisiana' is used to present data on the collective area). The land-water data sets used in this study are interpreted through spatial analysis and by linear regression analysis. The spatial depictions of land area change reveal a complex and interwoven mosaic of loss and gain patterns caused by natural and human-induced processes operating at varied temporal and spatial scales, resulting in fluctuating contributions to coastal loss. The linear regression analysis provides a robust estimate of recent change trends by comparing land area over time for all data sets from 1985 to 2004 and from 1985 to 2006 by physiographic province across coastal Louisiana. The 1956 to 2006 map showing multidecadal changes, along with the linear regressions of land area change presented in this study, provide a comprehensive and concise presentation of historical trends and rates of land area change in coastal Louisiana. Taking a broad historical view provides an in-depth understanding of land area changes over time. For example, one observation provided by our historical review is that the majority of the widespread, nontransitory land gains depicted on the map over the past 50 years, with the exception of the progradation of the Atchafafalaya River and Wax Lake deltas, are primarily related to sediment placement and landward migration of barrier islands. Another point revealed by our historical approach is that recent land losses caused by hurricanes sometimes commingled with or exacerbated older losses formed during the 1956 to 1978 period. Furthermore, our analyses also show how the immediate impacts of extreme storms can alter the long-term, time-averaged trends of landscape change, thus limiting the range of projections for the future. For this reason, this study does not include trend projections beyond 2015 because of uncertainties related to recovery from the 2005 hurricane season and the potential for other episodic events that could skew future rates of change.

Positive impact of the participation in the ENCHANTED trial in reducing Door-to-Needle Time.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Wang, Xia; Yu, Jian Ping; Hang, Jing; Lavados, Pablo; Robinson, Thompson; Arima, Hisatomi; Lindley, Richard I; Anderson, Craig S; Chalmers, John

2017-10-26

Door-to-needle time (DNT) is a key performance indicator for efficient use of intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We aimed to determine whether DNT improved over time in the Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Acute Stroke Study (ENCHANTED) and the clinical predictors of DNT. Temporal trends in DNT were assessed across fourths of time since activation of study centers using generalized linear model. Predictors of long DNT (>60 min) were determined in logistic regression models. Overall mean DNT (min) was 71.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] 70.4-73.2), but decreased significantly over time (fourths): 77.9 (74.9-80.9), 69.3 (66.7-72.0), 69.1 (66.5-71.8) and 71.4 (68.7-74.2) (P for trend, 0.003). The reduction in DNT was particularly marked in China (P for trend, 0.001), but was not significant across the other participating countries (P for trend, 0.065). Independent predictors of long DNT were recruitment from China, short onset-to-door time, lower numbers of patients treated per center, higher diastolic blood pressure, off-hour admission, and absence of proximal clot occlusion. DNT in ENCHANTED declined progressively during the trial, especially in China. However, DNT in China is still longer than the key performance parameter of ≤60 minutes recommended in guidelines. Effective national programs are needed to improve DNT in China.

Decadal variations in atmospheric water vapor time series estimated using GNSS, ERA-Interim, and synoptic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshawaf, Fadwa; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens

2017-04-01

Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) have efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research although they may not be sufficiently long. In this work, we compare the trend estimated from GNSS time series with that estimated from European Center for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements.We aim at evaluating climate evolution in Central Europe by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: 1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, 2) inferred from ERA-Interim data, and 3) determined based on daily surface measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other variables are available from surface meteorological stations or received from ERA-Interim. The PWV trend component estimated from GNSS data strongly correlates (>70%) with that estimated from the other data sets. The linear trend is estimated by straight line fitting over 30 years of seasonally-adjusted PWV time series obtained using the meteorological measurements. The results show a positive trend in the PWV time series with an increase of 0.2-0.7 mm/decade with a mean standard deviations of 0.016 mm/decade. In this paper, we present the results at three GNSS stations. The temporal increment of the PWV correlates with the temporal increase in the temperature levels.

Real-time open-loop frequency response analysis of flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosworth, J. T.; West, J. C.

1986-01-01

A technique has been developed to compare the open-loop frequency response of a flight test aircraft real time with linear analysis predictions. The result is direct feedback to the flight control systems engineer on the validity of predictions and adds confidence for proceeding with envelope expansion. Further, gain and phase margins can be tracked for trends in a manner similar to the techniques used by structural dynamics engineers in tracking structural modal damping.

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is therefore better to use the NCEP-CFSR dataset than the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets when discussing trends in the SAH.

Motor vehicle driver injury and socioeconomic status: a cohort study with prospective and retrospective driver injuries.

PubMed

Whitlock, G; Norton, R; Clark, T; Pledger, M; Jackson, R; MacMahon, S

2003-07-01

To investigate the association between motor vehicle driver injury and socioeconomic status. Cohort study with prospective and retrospective outcomes. New Zealand. 10 525 adults (volunteer sample of a multi-industry workforce, n=8008; and a random sample of urban electoral rolls, n=2517). Motor vehicle driver injury resulting in admission of the driver to hospital or the driver's death, or both, during the period 1988-98; hospitalisation and mortality data were obtained by record linkage to national health databases. After adjustment for age and sex, driver injury risk was inversely associated with both occupational status (p for linear trend <0.0001) and educational level (p for linear trend =0.007). Participants in the lowest approximate quartile of occupational status were four times as likely (HR 4.17, 95% CI 2.31 to 7.55) to have experienced a driver injury during follow up as participants in the highest approximate quartile. Participants who had been to secondary school for less than two years were twice as likely (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.34 to 3.81) to have experienced a driver injury as those who had been to university or polytechnic. There was little evidence that driver injury risk was associated with neighbourhood income (p for linear trend =0.12) CONCLUSIONS: Occupational status and educational level seem to be important determinants of driver injury risk. Driver injury countermeasures should be targeted to people in low status occupations, as well as to people with comparatively little formal education.

Local Increases in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Among Blacks and Whites in the United States, 1985–1995

PubMed Central

Barnett, Elizabeth; Halverson, Joel

2001-01-01

Objectives. This study analyzed coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality trends from 1985 to 1995, by race and sex, among Black and White adults 35 years and older to determine whether adverse trends were evident in any US localities. Methods. Log-linear regression models of annual age-adjusted death rates provided a quantitative measure of local mortality trends. Results. Increasing trends in CHD mortality were observed in 11 of 174 labor market areas for Black women, 23 of 175 areas for Black men, 10 of 394 areas for White women, and 4 of 394 areas for White men. Nationwide, adverse trends affected 1.7% of Black women, 8.0% of Black men, 1.1% of White women, and 0.3% of White men. Conclusions. From 1985 to 1995, moderate to strong local increases in CHD mortality were observed, predominantly in the southern United States. Black men evidenced the most unfavorable trends and were 25 times as likely as White men to be part of a local population experiencing increases in coronary heart disease mortality. PMID:11527788

Dynamics of intense rainfalls in the southern half of European Russia for the period 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chizhikova, N.

2018-01-01

Two time periods (1960-1986 and 1986-2015) were compared in terms of mean annual frequency and mean annual sum of warm season rainfalls to quantify general trends in the changing regime of heavy precipitation over the southern part of European Russia, which is the area of the most intensive agricultural activity. The identified trends were compared with the published assessment of the intensity trends of soil erosion processes. The prevalence of the increasing tendency in the frequency and amount of precipitation is demonstrated, which undergoes against a decrease in the rate of eroded sediment accumulation and against a decrease of linear growth rate of gullies. This result rather proves the crucial contribution of the snowmelt to the soil erosion over the studied area.

Spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation remote sensing phenology and its response to climatic factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, S.; Chen, X.

2015-12-01

Based on the MODIS MCD12Q2 remote sensing phenology product, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations of vegetation green-up, maturity, senescence and brown-off dates, and their relation to spatiotemporal patterns of air temperature and precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). From 2001 to 2012, phenological time series at about 11.7%~15.1% pixels indicate significant linear trends (P<0.1) with strong spatial consistency. Namely, pixels with significant phenological advancement and growing season lengthening are mainly distributed in the middle and eastern parts of the QTP, while pixels with significant phenological delay and growing season shortening are mainly distributed in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge of the QTP. Similar spatial patterns for positive and negative linear trends of the minimum and maximum EVI, and the time-integrated EVI during the growing season were detected in the above two regions, respectively. With regard to climatic factors, mean annual temperature shows an increased trend over the QTP except for the eastern edge, whereas annual precipitation displays an increased trend in the middle and eastern parts but a decreased trend in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge of the QTP. These findings suggest that phenological advancement, growing season lengthening, and vegetation activity enhancement in the middle and eastern parts might be attributed to coincident temperature and precipitation increase. By contrast, phenological delay, growing season shortening, and vegetation activity reduction in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge might be caused by opposite changes of temperature and precipitation, and strong evaporation induced water shortage. Furthermore, a partial correlation analysis indicates that green-up, maturity, and brown-off dates were influenced by preceding temperature and precipitation, while senescence date was affected by preceding precipitation.

The effect of ageing on the mechanical properties of the silk of the bridge spider Larinioides cornutus (Clerck, 1757)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepore, Emiliano; Isaia, Marco; Mammola, Stefano; Pugno, Nicola

2016-05-01

Spider silk is regarded as one of the best natural polymer fibers especially in terms of low density, high tensile strength and high elongation until breaking. Since only a few bio-engineering studies have been focused on spider silk ageing, we conducted nano-tensile tests on the vertical naturally spun silk fibers of the bridge spider Larinioides cornutus (Clerck, 1757) (Arachnida, Araneae) to evaluate changes in the mechanical properties of the silk (ultimate stress and strain, Young’s modulus, toughness) over time. We studied the natural process of silk ageing at different time intervals from spinning (20 seconds up to one month), comparing silk fibers spun from adult spiders collected in the field. Data were analyzed using Linear Mixed Models. We detected a positive trend versus time for the Young’s modulus, indicating that aged silks are stiffer and possibly less effective in catching prey. Moreover, we observed a negative trend for the ultimate strain versus time, attesting a general decrement of the resistance force. These trends are interpreted as being due to the drying of the silk protein chains and the reorientation among the fibers.

The linear trend of headache prevalence and some headache features in school children.

PubMed

Ozge, Aynur; Buğdayci, Resul; Saşmaz, Tayyar; Kaleağasi, Hakan; Kurt, Oner; Karakelle, Ali; Siva, Aksel

2007-04-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the age and sex dependent linear trend of recurrent headache prevalence in schoolchildren in Mersin. A stratified sample composed of 5562 children; detailed characteristics were previously published. In this study the prevalence distribution of headache by age and sex showed a peak in the female population at the age of 11 (27.2%) with a plateau in the following years. The great stratified random sample results suggested that, in addition to socio-demographic features, detailed linear trend analysis showed headache features of children with headache have some specific characteristics dependent on age, gender and headache type. This study results can constitute a basis for the future epidemiological based studies.

Revisiting the Impact of NCLB High-Stakes School Accountability, Capacity, and Resources: State NAEP 1990-2009 Reading and Math Achievement Gaps and Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jaekyung; Reeves, Todd

2012-01-01

This study examines the impact of high-stakes school accountability, capacity, and resources under NCLB on reading and math achievement outcomes through comparative interrupted time-series analyses of 1990-2009 NAEP state assessment data. Through hierarchical linear modeling latent variable regression with inverse probability of treatment…

Spatial and temporal drivers of wildfire occurrence in the context of rural development in northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R Miranda; Brian R Sturtevant; Susan I Stewart; Roger B. Hammer

2012-01-01

Most drivers underlying wildfire are dynamic, but at different spatial and temporal scales. We quantified temporal and spatial trends in wildfire patterns over two spatial extents in northern Wisconsin to identify drivers and their change through time. We used spatial point pattern analysis to quantify the spatial pattern of wildfire occurrences, and linear regression...

Per capita alcohol consumption in Australia: will the real trend please step forward?

PubMed

Chikritzhs, Tanya N; Allsop, Steve J; Moodie, A Rob; Hall, Wayne D

2010-11-15

To estimate the national trend in per capita consumption (PCC) of alcohol for Australians aged 15 years and older for the financial years 1990-91 to 2008-09. With the use of data obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics' catalogues and World Advertising Research Centre reports, three alternative series of annual totals of PCC of alcohol for the past 20 years (1990-91 to 2008-09) were estimated based on different assumptions about the alcohol content of wine. For the "old" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have been stable over time. For the "new" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have increased once in 2004-05 and then to have remained stable to 2008-09. For the "adjusted" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have gradually increased over time, beginning in 1998-99. Linear trend analysis was applied to identify significant trends. National trend in annual PCC of alcohol 1990-91 to 2008-09. The new and adjusted series of annual totals of PCC of alcohol showed increasing trends; the old series was stable. Until recently, official national annual totals of PCC of alcohol were underestimated and led to the mistaken impression that levels of alcohol consumption had been stable since the early 1990s. In fact, Australia's total PCC has been increasing significantly over time because of a gradual increase in the alcohol content and market share of wine and is now at one of its highest points since 1991-92. This new information is consistent with evidence of increasing alcohol-related harm and highlights the need for timely and accurate data on alcohol sales and harms across Australia.

Observed changes in relative humidity and dew point temperature in coastal regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P.; Sabziparvar, A. A.; Tabari, Hossein

2012-12-01

The analysis of trends in hydroclimatic parameters and assessment of their statistical significance have recently received a great concern to clarify whether or not there is an obvious climate change. In the current study, parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests were applied for detecting annual and seasonal trends in the relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature ( T dew) time series at ten coastal weather stations in Iran during 1966-2005. The serial structure of the data was considered, and the significant serial correlations were eliminated using the trend-free pre-whitening method. The results showed that annual RH increased by 1.03 and 0.28 %/decade at the northern and southern coastal regions of the country, respectively, while annual T dew increased by 0.29 and 0.15°C per decade at the northern and southern regions, respectively. The significant trends were frequent in the T dew series, but they were observed only at 2 out of the 50 RH series. The results showed that the difference between the results of the parametric and nonparametric tests was small, although the parametric test detected larger significant trends in the RH and T dew time series. Furthermore, the differences between the results of the trend tests were not related to the normality of the statistical distribution.

Towards time-dependent current-density-functional theory in the non-linear regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escartín, J. M.; Vincendon, M.; Romaniello, P.; Dinh, P. M.; Reinhard, P.-G.; Suraud, E.

2015-02-01

Time-Dependent Density-Functional Theory (TDDFT) is a well-established theoretical approach to describe and understand irradiation processes in clusters and molecules. However, within the so-called adiabatic local density approximation (ALDA) to the exchange-correlation (xc) potential, TDDFT can show insufficiencies, particularly in violently dynamical processes. This is because within ALDA the xc potential is instantaneous and is a local functional of the density, which means that this approximation neglects memory effects and long-range effects. A way to go beyond ALDA is to use Time-Dependent Current-Density-Functional Theory (TDCDFT), in which the basic quantity is the current density rather than the density as in TDDFT. This has been shown to offer an adequate account of dissipation in the linear domain when the Vignale-Kohn (VK) functional is used. Here, we go beyond the linear regime and we explore this formulation in the time domain. In this case, the equations become very involved making the computation out of reach; we hence propose an approximation to the VK functional which allows us to calculate the dynamics in real time and at the same time to keep most of the physics described by the VK functional. We apply this formulation to the calculation of the time-dependent dipole moment of Ca, Mg and Na2. Our results show trends similar to what was previously observed in model systems or within linear response. In the non-linear domain, our results show that relaxation times do not decrease with increasing deposited excitation energy, which sets some limitations to the practical use of TDCDFT in such a domain of excitations.

Towards time-dependent current-density-functional theory in the non-linear regime.

PubMed

Escartín, J M; Vincendon, M; Romaniello, P; Dinh, P M; Reinhard, P-G; Suraud, E

2015-02-28

Time-Dependent Density-Functional Theory (TDDFT) is a well-established theoretical approach to describe and understand irradiation processes in clusters and molecules. However, within the so-called adiabatic local density approximation (ALDA) to the exchange-correlation (xc) potential, TDDFT can show insufficiencies, particularly in violently dynamical processes. This is because within ALDA the xc potential is instantaneous and is a local functional of the density, which means that this approximation neglects memory effects and long-range effects. A way to go beyond ALDA is to use Time-Dependent Current-Density-Functional Theory (TDCDFT), in which the basic quantity is the current density rather than the density as in TDDFT. This has been shown to offer an adequate account of dissipation in the linear domain when the Vignale-Kohn (VK) functional is used. Here, we go beyond the linear regime and we explore this formulation in the time domain. In this case, the equations become very involved making the computation out of reach; we hence propose an approximation to the VK functional which allows us to calculate the dynamics in real time and at the same time to keep most of the physics described by the VK functional. We apply this formulation to the calculation of the time-dependent dipole moment of Ca, Mg and Na2. Our results show trends similar to what was previously observed in model systems or within linear response. In the non-linear domain, our results show that relaxation times do not decrease with increasing deposited excitation energy, which sets some limitations to the practical use of TDCDFT in such a domain of excitations.

Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

2015-04-01

We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

Detections of Long Carbon Chains CH_{3}CCCCH, C_{6}H, LINEAR-C_{6}H_{2} and C_{7}H in the Low-Mass Star Forming Region L1527

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araki, Mitsunori; Takano, Shuro; Sakai, Nami; Yamamoto, Satoshi; Oyama, Takahiro; Kuze, Nobuhiko; Tsukiyama, Koichi

2017-06-01

Carbon chains in the warm carbon chain chemistry (WCCC) region has been searched in the 42-44 GHz region by using Green Bank 100 m telescope. Long carbon chains C_{7}H, C_{6}H, CH_{3}CCCCH, and linear-C_{6}H_{2} and cyclic species C_{3}H and C_{3}H_{2}O have been detected in the low-mass star forming region L1527, performing the WCCC. C_{7}H was detected for the first time in molecular clouds. The column density of C_{7}H is derived to be 6.2 × 10^{10} cm^{-2} by using the detected J = 24.5-23.5 and 25.5-24.5 rotational lines. The ^{2}Π_{1/2} electronic state of C_{6}H, locating 21.6 K above the ^{2}Π_{3/2} electronic ground state, and the K_a = 0 line of the para species of linear-C_{6}H_{2} were also detected firstly in molecular clouds. The column densities of the ^{2}Π_{1/2} and ^{2}Π_{3/2} states of C_{6}H in L1527 were derived to be 1.6 × 10^{11} and 1.1 × 10^{12} cm^{-2}, respectively. The total column density of linear-C_{6}H_{2} is obtained to be 1.86 × 10^{11} cm^{-2}. While the abundance ratios of carbon chains in between L1527 and the starless dark cloud Taurus Molecular Cloud-1 Cyanopolyyne Peak (TMC-1 CP) have a trend of decrease by extension of carbon-chain length, column densities of CH_{3}CCCCH and C_{6}H are on the trend. However, the column densities of linear-C_{6}H_{2}, and C_{7}H are as abundant as those of TMC-1 CP in spite of long carbon chain, i.e., they are not on the trend. The abundances of linear-C_{6}H_{2} and C_{7}H show that L1527 is rich for long carbon chains as well as TMC-1 CP.

[Shock shape representation of sinus heart rate based on cloud model].

PubMed

Yin, Wenfeng; Zhao, Jie; Chen, Tiantian; Zhang, Junjian; Zhang, Chunyou; Li, Dapeng; An, Baijing

2014-04-01

The present paper is to analyze the trend of sinus heart rate RR interphase sequence after a single ventricular premature beat and to compare it with the two parameters, turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS). Based on the acquisition of sinus rhythm concussion sample, we in this paper use a piecewise linearization method to extract its linear characteristics, following which we describe shock form with natural language through cloud model. In the process of acquisition, we use the exponential smoothing method to forecast the position where QRS wave may appear to assist QRS wave detection, and use template to judge whether current cardiac is sinus rhythm. And we choose some signals from MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database to detect whether the algorithm is effective in Matlab. The results show that our method can correctly detect the changing trend of sinus heart rate. The proposed method can achieve real-time detection of sinus rhythm shocks, which is simple and easily implemented, so that it is effective as a supplementary method.

Association of Football Subconcussive Head Impacts With Ocular Near Point of Convergence.

PubMed

Kawata, Keisuke; Rubin, Leah H; Lee, Jong Hyun; Sim, Thomas; Takahagi, Masahiro; Szwanki, Victor; Bellamy, Al; Darvish, Kurosh; Assari, Soroush; Henderer, Jeffrey D; Tierney, Ryan; Langford, Dianne

2016-07-01

An increased understanding of the relationship between subconcussive head impacts and near point of convergence (NPC) ocular-motor function may be useful in delineating traumatic brain injury. To investigate whether repetitive subconcussive head impacts during preseason football practice cause changes in NPC. This prospective, observational study of 29 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I football players included baseline and preseason practices (1 noncontact and 4 contact), and postseason follow-up and outcome measures were obtained for each time. An accelerometer-embedded mouthguard measured head impact kinematics. Based on the sum of head impacts from all 5 practices, players were categorized into lower (n = 7) or higher (n = 22) impact groups. Players participated in regular practices, and all head impacts greater than 10g from the 5 practices were recorded using the i1Biometerics Vector mouthguard (i1 Biometrics Inc). Near point of convergence measures and symptom scores. A total of 1193 head impacts were recorded from 5 training camp practices in the 29 collegiate football players; 22 were categorized into the higher-impact group and 7 into the lower-impact group. There were significant differences in head impact kinematics between lower- and higher-impact groups (number of impacts, 6 vs 41 [lower impact minus higher impact = 35; 95% CI, 21-51; P < .001]; linear acceleration, 99g vs 1112g [lower impact minus higher impact= 1013; 95% CI, 621 - 1578; P < .001]; angular acceleration, 7589 radian/s2 vs 65 016 radian/s2 [lower impact minus higher impact= 57 427; 95% CI , 31 123-80 498; P < .001], respectively). The trajectory and cumulative burden of subconcussive impacts on NPC differed by group (F for group × linear trend1, 238 = 12.14, P < .001 and F for group × quadratic trend1, 238 = 12.97, P < .001). In the higher-impact group, there was a linear increase in NPC over time (B for linear trend, unstandardized coefficient [SE]:  0.76 [0.12], P < .001) that plateaued and resolved by postseason follow-up (B for quadratic trend [SE]: -0.06 [0.008], P < .001). In the lower-impact group, there was no change in NPC over time. Group differences were first observed after the first contact practice and remained until the final full-gear practice. No group differences were observed postseason follow-up. There were no differences in symptom scores between groups over time. Although asymptomatic, these data suggest that repetitive subconcussive head impacts were associated with changes in NPC. The increase in NPC highlights the vulnerability and slow recovery of the ocular-motor system following subconcussive head impacts. Changes in NPC may become a useful clinical tool in deciphering brain injury severity.

Longitudinal trends in serum ferritin levels and associated factors in a national incident hemodialysis cohort.

PubMed

Kim, Taehee; Rhee, Connie M; Streja, Elani; Obi, Yoshitsugu; Brunelli, Steven M; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

2017-02-01

The rise in serum ferritin levels among US maintenance hemodialysis patients has been attributed to higher intravenous iron administration and other changes in practice. We examined ferritin trends over time in hemodialysis patients and whether iron utilization patterns and other factors [erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA) prescribing patterns, inflammatory markers] were associated with ferritin trajectory. In a 5-year (January 2007–December 2011) cohort of 81 864 incident US hemodialysis patients, we examined changes in ferritin averaged over 3-month intervals using linear mixed effects models adjusted for intravenous iron dose, malnutrition and inflammatory markers. We then examined ferritin trends across strata of baseline ferritin level, dialysis initiation year, cumulative iron and ESA use in the first dialysis year and baseline hemoglobin level. In models adjusted for iron dose, malnutrition and inflammation, mean ferritin levels increased over time in the overall cohort and across the three lower baseline ferritin strata. Among patients initiating dialysis in 2007, mean ferritin levels increased sharply in the first versus second year of dialysis and again abruptly increased in the fifth year independent of iron dose, malnutrition and inflammatory markers; similar trends were observed among patients who initiated dialysis in 2008 and 2009. In analyses stratified by cumulative iron use, mean ferritin increased among groups receiving iron, but decreased in the no iron group. In analyses stratified by cumulative ESA dose and baseline hemoglobin, mean ferritin increased over time. While ferritin trends correlated with patterns of iron use, increases in ferritin over time persisted independent of intravenous iron and ESA exposure, malnutrition and inflammation.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is increasing in Norway: a time series analysis of reported MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus cases, 1997-2010.

PubMed

Moxnes, John F; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina E Fossum

2013-01-01

Accurate estimates of the incidence and prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are needed to inform public health policies. In Norway, where both MRSA infection and carriage are notifiable conditions, the reported incidence of MRSA is slowly increasing. However, the proportion of MRSA in relation to all S. aureus isolates is unknown, making it difficult to determine if the rising incidence is real or an artifact of an increasing number of tests performed. To characterize recent trends in MRSA infections and obtain a more complete understanding of the MRSA level in Norway. All reported cases of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) from Oslo County (1997-2010) and Health Region East (2008-2008), representing approximately 11% and 36% of the Norwegian population, respectively, were analyzed using a stochastic time series analysis to characterize trends. In Oslo County, the proportion of methicillin-resistant cases increased from 0.73% to 3.78% during the study period and was well modeled by an exponential growth with a doubling constant of 5.7 years (95% CI 4.5-7.4 years). In Health Region East, the proportion of MRSA cases increased from 0.4% to 2.1% from 2002 to 2008, with a best-fitting linear increase of 0.26% (95% CI 0.21-0.30%) per year. In both cases, the choice of a linear or exponential model for the time trend produced only marginally different model fits. We found no significant changes due to revised national MRSA guidelines published in June 2009. Significant variations in the increasing time trend were observed in the five hospitals within the region. The yearly reported incidence of MSSA was relatively stable in both study areas although we found seasonal patterns with peaks in August. The level of MRSA is increasing in Norway, and the proportion of methicillin resistance in all S. aureus isolates are higher than the reported proportion of MRSA in invasive infections.

Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Is Increasing in Norway: A Time Series Analysis of Reported MRSA and Methicillin-Sensitive S. aureus Cases, 1997–2010

PubMed Central

Moxnes, John F.; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina E. Fossum

2013-01-01

Background Accurate estimates of the incidence and prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are needed to inform public health policies. In Norway, where both MRSA infection and carriage are notifiable conditions, the reported incidence of MRSA is slowly increasing. However, the proportion of MRSA in relation to all S. aureus isolates is unknown, making it difficult to determine if the rising incidence is real or an artifact of an increasing number of tests performed. Aim To characterize recent trends in MRSA infections and obtain a more complete understanding of the MRSA level in Norway. Methods All reported cases of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) from Oslo County (1997–2010) and Health Region East (2008–2008), representing approximately 11% and 36% of the Norwegian population, respectively, were analyzed using a stochastic time series analysis to characterize trends. Results In Oslo County, the proportion of methicillin-resistant cases increased from 0.73% to 3.78% during the study period and was well modeled by an exponential growth with a doubling constant of 5.7 years (95% CI 4.5–7.4 years). In Health Region East, the proportion of MRSA cases increased from 0.4% to 2.1% from 2002 to 2008, with a best-fitting linear increase of 0.26% (95% CI 0.21–0.30%) per year. In both cases, the choice of a linear or exponential model for the time trend produced only marginally different model fits. We found no significant changes due to revised national MRSA guidelines published in June 2009. Significant variations in the increasing time trend were observed in the five hospitals within the region. The yearly reported incidence of MSSA was relatively stable in both study areas although we found seasonal patterns with peaks in August. Conclusion The level of MRSA is increasing in Norway, and the proportion of methicillin resistance in all S. aureus isolates are higher than the reported proportion of MRSA in invasive infections. PMID:23936442

Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.

Trends in job satisfaction among German nurses from 1990 to 2012.

PubMed

Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2016-04-01

Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. We used 1990-2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas that of doctors and other health care workers increased by 14.4% and 1%, respectively. The decline for part-time nurses (13%) was more pronounced than that for full-time nurses (3%). At the same time, nurses' pay rose by only 3.8% compared to a 23.8% increase for doctors. The steady decline in nurses' job satisfaction over the last two decades may be attributable to the multiple reforms and associated policy changes that generally disadvantaged nurses. Contributing factors to job satisfaction decline include lower pay and the demanding and strenuous work environment. Irrespective of the reason, health services researchers, leaders, and policy makers should investigate the reasons for this decline given the forecast growth in work load and complexity of care. Supportive policies for nurses would help enhance the quality and sustainability of German health care. © The Author(s) 2015.

Streamflow droughts in major watershed regions of the conterminous U.S.: Understanding evolution of historic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournasiri Poshtiri, M.; Pal, I.

2015-12-01

Climate non-stationarity affects regional hydrological extremes. This research looks into historic patterns of streamflow drought indicators and their evolution for major watershed regions in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The results indicate general linear and non-linear drying trends, particularly in the last four decades, as opposed to wetting trends reported in previous studies. Regional differences in the trends are notable, and echo the local climatic changes documented in the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA). A reversal of linear trends is seen for some northern regions after 1980s. Patterns in return periods and corresponding return values of the indicators are also examined, which suggests changing risk conditions that are important for water-resources decision-making. Persistent or flash drought conditions in a river can lead to chronic or short-term water scarcity—a main driver of societal and cross-boundary conflicts. Thus, this research identifies "hotspot" locations where suitable adaptive management measures are most needed.

Complex messages regarding a thin ideal appearing in teenage girls' magazines from 1956 to 2005.

PubMed

Luff, Gina M; Gray, James J

2009-03-01

Seventeen and YM were assessed from 1956 through 2005 (n=312) to examine changes in the messages about thinness sent to teenage women. Trends were analyzed through an investigation of written, internal content focused on dieting, exercise, or both, while cover models were examined to explore fluctuations in body size. Pearson's Product correlations and weighted-least squares linear regression models were used to demonstrate changes over time. The frequency of written content related to exercise and combined plans increased in Seventeen, while a curvilinear relationship between time and content relating to dieting appeared. YM showed a linear increase in content related to dieting, exercise, and combined plans. Average cover model body size increased over time in YM while demonstrating no significant changes in Seventeen. Overall, more written messages about dieting and exercise appeared in teen's magazines in 2005 than before while the average cover model body size increased.

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

Permeability-porosity relationships in sedimentary rocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Philip H.

1994-01-01

In many consolidated sandstone and carbonate formations, plots of core data show that the logarithm of permeability (k) is often linearly proportional to porosity (??). The slope, intercept, and degree of scatter of these log(k)-?? trends vary from formation to formation, and these variations are attributed to differences in initial grain size and sorting, diagenetic history, and compaction history. In unconsolidated sands, better sorting systematically increases both permeability and porosity. In sands and sandstones, an increase in gravel and coarse grain size content causes k to increase even while decreasing ??. Diagenetic minerals in the pore space of sandstones, such as cement and some clay types, tend to decrease log(k) proportionately as ?? decreases. Models to predict permeability from porosity and other measurable rock parameters fall into three classes based on either grain, surface area, or pore dimension considerations. (Models that directly incorporate well log measurements but have no particular theoretical underpinnings from a fourth class.) Grain-based models show permeability proportional to the square of grain size times porosity raised to (roughly) the fifth power, with grain sorting as an additional parameter. Surface-area models show permeability proportional to the inverse square of pore surface area times porosity raised to (roughly) the fourth power; measures of surface area include irreducible water saturation and nuclear magnetic resonance. Pore-dimension models show permeability proportional to the square of a pore dimension times porosity raised to a power of (roughly) two and produce curves of constant pore size that transgress the linear data trends on a log(k)-?? plot. The pore dimension is obtained from mercury injection measurements and is interpreted as the pore opening size of some interconnected fraction of the pore system. The linear log(k)-?? data trends cut the curves of constant pore size from the pore-dimension models, which shows that porosity reduction is always accompanied by a reduction in characteristic pore size. The high powers of porosity of the grain-based and surface-area models are required to compensate for the inclusion of the small end of the pore size spectrum.

Gender Trends in Academic Radiology Publication in the United States Revisited.

PubMed

O'Connor, Erin E; Chen, Pauline; Weston, Brian; Anderson, Redmond; Zeffiro, Timothy; Ahmed, Awad; Zeffiro, Thomas A

2018-02-12

Although substantial increases in publications by female academic radiologists have appeared over the last several decades, it is possible that the rate of increase is decreasing. We examined temporal trends in gender composition for full-time radiology faculty, radiology residents, and medical students over a 46-year period. We examined authorship gender trends to determine if the increases in female authorship seen since 1970 have been sustained in recent years and whether female radiologists continue to publish in proportion to their numbers in academic departments. Original articles for selected years in Radiology and in the American Journal of Roentgenology between 1970 and 2016 were examined to determine the gender of first, corresponding, and last authors. Generalized linear models evaluated (1) changes in proportions of female authorship over time and (2) associations between proportions of female authorship and female radiology faculty representation. While linear increases in first, corresponding, and senior authorships were observed for female radiologists from 1970 to 2000, the rate of increase in female first and corresponding authorships then changed, with the slope of the first author relationship decreasing from 0.81 to 0.34, corresponding to 47% fewer female first authors added per year. In contrast, the proportion of female last authorship continued to increase at the same rate. The proportion of female first authorship was linearly related to the proportion of female radiology faculty from 1970 to 2016. Annual increases in first author academic productivity of female radiologists have lessened in the past 16 years, possibly related to reductions in the growth of female radiology faculty and trainees. As mixed, compared to homogeneous gender, authorship teams are associated with more citations, efforts to encourage more women to pursue careers in academic radiology could benefit the radiology research community. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in pediatric echocardiography and the yield for congenital heart disease in a major cardiac referral hospital in Cameroon.

PubMed

Nkoke, Clovis; Balti, Eric; Menanga, Alain; Dzudie, Anastase; Lekoubou, Alain; Kingue, Samuel; Kengne, Andre Pascal

2017-01-01

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a common condition in children in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where it is associated with poor outcomes. Diagnosis of CHD in SSA depends essentially on echocardiography, which is available only in few urban referral centers. Our aim was to assess time changes in the pattern of referral for pediatric echocardiography and the subsequent diagnosis of structural CHD in a major SSA city. All pediatric echocardiography performed between 2004 and 2013 at the echocardiography laboratory of the Yaounde General Hospital were reviewed. The primary indication of the study and the presence of structural CHD were recorded. Between 2004 and 2013, 9,390 echocardiograms were performed and 834 (8.9%) children aged 1 day to 15 years underwent echocardiography at the center, and 227 (27.2%) cases of definite structural CHD were diagnosed, with 123 (54.2%) in boys. The most frequent indications for echocardiography were heart murmurs (40%) and the suspicion of CHD (37.4%). The commonest CHD was ventricular septal defect (VSD) (30%) with tetralogy of Fallot being the most frequent cyanotic heart lesion (5.3%). The proportion of pediatric echocardiography decreased from 13.3% in 2004-2005 to 6.1% in 2012-2013 (P=0.001) but not in a linear fashion (P=0.072 for linear trend).The diagnosis of structural CHD increased from 25.1% in 2004-2005 to 27.1% in 2012-2013. This increase however was non-significant (P=0.523) and did not follow a linear trend (P=0.230). The pattern of referral for pediatric echocardiography at this center has changed over time, but diagnosis of structural CHD has remained the same. Improving access to this diagnostic procedure and subsequent treatment of diagnosed CHD will help improving the outcome of the disease in this setting.

Complexity, self-organisation and variation in behaviour in meandering rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooke, J. M.

2007-11-01

River meanders are natural features on the surface of Earth that present some degree of regularity of form. They range from being highly dynamic to being stable under present conditions. Conventional theory is that meanders develop to an equilibrium form which is related to discharge and sediment load. Other research has demonstrated that many highly active meanders exhibit a continuous evolution over time and a non-linearity in rate of development. Ideas of autogenesis and of self-organised criticality as being an explanation of some meander changes have been proposed. In this paper data from rivers around the world are examined for further evidence of autogenic, self-organised or non-linear behaviour through analysis of change in sinuosity over time for reaches and change in individual bend form, particularly bend curvature and bend elongation. Some examples do exhibit trends of increasing sinuosity over time and a few show limits from which large decreases occur. Several case studies show non-linearity of behaviour and increasing complexity of form. Other case studies, however, do not exhibit such trends. Phase space plots are used to help uncover emergent behaviour but show a variety of patterns. The example of a reach in which multiple cut-offs occurred is analysed for mechanisms of self-organisation of the planform and in the pool-riffle pattern. Riffles are more closely spaced and also more transient in the more rapidly changing and higher sinuosity parts of the channel. Hypothetical trajectories of different meander behaviour, including for bedrock meanders, are plotted but the challenge remains to uncover the conditions for occurrence and for divergence of tendencies to stability and instability. Identification of attractors and phase space of behaviour of different meandering systems offer the potential for application to sustainable channel management.

Intra-national variation in trends in overweight and leisure time physical activities in The Netherlands since 1980: stratification according to sex, age and urbanisation degree.

PubMed

Gast, G C M; Gast, G-C M; Frenken, F J M; van Leest, L A T M; Wendel-Vos, G C W; Bemelmans, W J E

2007-03-01

To investigate time trends in overweight and Leisure Time Physical Activities (LTPA) in The Netherlands since 1980. Intra-national differences were examined stratified for sex, age and urbanisation degree. We used a random sample of about 140,000 respondents aged 20-69 years from the Health Interview Survey (Nethhis) and subsequent Permanent Survey on Living Conditions (POLS). Self-reported data on weight and height and demographic characteristics were gathered through interviews (every year) and data on LTPA were collected by self-administered questionnaires (1990-1997, 2001-2004). Linear regression analysis was performed for trend analyses. During 1981-2004, mean body mass index (BMI) increased significantly by 1.0 kg/m(2) (average per year=0.05 kg/m(2)). Trends were similar across sex and different degrees of urbanisation, but varied across age groups. In 20-to 39-year-old women, mean BMI increased by 1.7 kg/m(2), which was more than in older age groups (P

Annual variation in Internet keyword searches: Linking dieting interest to obesity and negative health outcomes.

PubMed

Markey, Patrick M; Markey, Charlotte N

2013-07-01

This study investigated the annual variation in Internet searches regarding dieting. Time-series analysis was first used to examine the annual trends of Google keyword searches during the past 7 years for topics related to dieting within the United States. The results indicated that keyword searches for dieting fit a consistent 12-month linear model, peaking in January (following New Year's Eve) and then linearly decreasing until surging again the following January. Additional state-level analyses revealed that the size of the December-January dieting-related keyword surge was predictive of both obesity and mortality rates due to diabetes, heart disease, and stroke.

The structure of the Temsamane fold-and-thrust stack (eastern Rif, Morocco): Evolution of a transpressional orogenic wedge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jabaloy-Sánchez, Antonio; Azdimousa, Ali; Booth-Rea, Guillermo; Asebriy, Lahcen; Vázquez-Vílchez, Mercedes; Martínez-Martínez, José Miguel; Gabites, Janet

2015-11-01

The structure of the Temsamane fold-and-thrust stack corresponds to four units limited by anastomosing ductile shear zones cutting a trend of south verging recumbent folds. This ductile stack was formed in an inclined left-handed transpressional zone at the North African paleomargin during Chattian to Langhian times producing two main deformational events. The first event (Dp) produced a Sp/Lp planar linear fabric generated in a non-coaxial deformation with a top-to-the-WSW sense of movement and was associated to metamorphic P-T conditions varying from late diagenesis in the southernmost Temsamane outcrops to epizone in the north. According to the 40Ar/39Ar ages, this deformation occurred at Chattian-Aquitanian times. The second deformational event (Dc event) generated ENE-WSW trending folds with SSE vergence and a set of anastomosing shear zones with Sm/Lm planar linear fabric. The latter units were generated at around 15 Ma (Langhian), and indicate a strong localization of the simple shear component of the transpression. Moreover, this orientation is compatible with the kinematics of the Temsamane detachment, which can explain most of the uplift of the Temsamane rocks from the middle to the uppermost crust. The described evolution indicates that collision between the western Mediterranean terranes and the North African paleomargin and the formation of the Rifean orogenic wedge occurred at Chattian to Langhian times.

Motor vehicle driver injury and socioeconomic status: a cohort study with prospective and retrospective driver injuries

PubMed Central

Whitlock, G; Norton, R; Clark, T; Pledger, M; Jackson, R; MacMahon, S

2003-01-01

Study objective: To investigate the association between motor vehicle driver injury and socioeconomic status. Design: Cohort study with prospective and retrospective outcomes. Setting: New Zealand. Participants: 10 525 adults (volunteer sample of a multi-industry workforce, n=8008; and a random sample of urban electoral rolls, n=2517). Outcome measure: Motor vehicle driver injury resulting in admission of the driver to hospital or the driver's death, or both, during the period 1988–98; hospitalisation and mortality data were obtained by record linkage to national health databases. Main results: After adjustment for age and sex, driver injury risk was inversely associated with both occupational status (p for linear trend <0.0001) and educational level (p for linear trend =0.007). Participants in the lowest approximate quartile of occupational status were four times as likely (HR 4.17, 95% CI 2.31 to 7.55) to have experienced a driver injury during follow up as participants in the highest approximate quartile. Participants who had been to secondary school for less than two years were twice as likely (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.34 to 3.81) to have experienced a driver injury as those who had been to university or polytechnic. There was little evidence that driver injury risk was associated with neighbourhood income (p for linear trend =0.12) Conclusions: Occupational status and educational level seem to be important determinants of driver injury risk. Driver injury countermeasures should be targeted to people in low status occupations, as well as to people with comparatively little formal education. PMID:12821697

[Completeness of notifications of violence perpetrated against adolescents in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil].

PubMed

Santos, Taciana Mirella Batista Dos; Cardoso, Mirian Domingos; Pitangui, Ana Carolina Rodarti; Santos, Yasmim Gabriella Cardoso; Paiva, Saul Martins; Melo, João Paulo Ramos; Silva, Lygia Maria Pereira

2016-12-01

The scope of this study was to analyze the trend of completeness of the data on violence perpetrated against adolescents registered in the State of Pernambuco between 2009 and 2012. This involved a cross-sectional survey of 5,259 adolescents, who were the victims of violence reported in SINAN-VIVA of the Pernambuco State Health Department. Simple linear regression was used to investigate the trend of completeness of the variables. The percentages of completeness were considered to be dependent variables (Y) and the number of years as independent variables (X). The results show a significant increase of 204% in the number of notifications. However, of the 34 variables analyzed, 27 (79.4%) showed a stationary trend, 6 (17.6%) a downward trend, and only one variable (2.9%) an upward trend. Completeness was considered 'Very Poor' for the variables: Education (47.3%), Full Address (21.3%), Occurrence Time (38%) and Use of Alcohol by the Attacker (47%). Therefore, despite the large increase in the number of notifications, data quality continued to be compromised, hampering a more realistic analysis of this group.

Spacecraft-borne long life cryogenic refrigeration: Status and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, A. L.

1983-01-01

The status of cryogenic refrigerator development intended for, or possibly applicable to, long life spacecraft-borne application is reviewed. Based on these efforts, the general development trends are identified. Using currently projected technology needs, the various trends are compared and evaluated. The linear drive, non-contacting bearing Stirling cycle refrigerator concept appears to be the best current approach that will meet the technology projection requirements for spacecraft-borne cryogenic refrigerators. However, a multiply redundant set of lightweight, moderate life, moderate reliability Stirling cycle cryogenic refrigerators using high-speed linear drive and sliding contact bearings may possibly suffice.

Effects of processing parameters on immersion vacuum cooling time and physico-chemical properties of pork hams.

PubMed

Feng, Chao-Hui; Drummond, Liana; Zhang, Zhi-Hang; Sun, Da-Wen

2013-10-01

The effects of agitation (1002 rpm), different pressure reduction rates (60 and 100 mbar/min), as well as employing cold water with different initial temperatures (IWT: 7 and 20°C) on immersion vacuum cooling (IVC) of cooked pork hams were experimentally investigated. Final pork ham core temperature, cooling time, cooling loss, texture properties, colour and chemical composition were evaluated. The application for the first time of agitation during IVC substantially reduced the cooling time (47.39%) to 4.6°C, compared to IVC without agitation. For the different pressure drop rates, there was a trend that shorter IVC cooling times were achieved with lower cooling rate, although results were not statistically significant (P>0.05). For both IWTs tested, the same trend was observed: shorter cooling time and lower cooling loss were obtained under lower linear pressure drop rate of 60 mbar/min (not statistically significant, P>0.05). Compared to the reference cooling method (air blast cooling), IVC achieved higher cooling rates and better meat quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing and magma reservoir volumes during early episodes of Kīlauea Volcano's Pu`u `Ō`ō eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamberger, Patrick J.; Garcia, Michael O.

2007-02-01

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing allows for evaluation of volumes of magma storage reservoirs and magma plumbing configurations. A new analytical expression is derived for a simple two-component box-mixing model describing the proportions of mixing components in erupted lavas as a function of time. Four versions of this model are applied to a mixing trend spanning episodes 3 31 of Kilauea Volcano’s Puu Oo eruption, each testing different constraints on magma reservoir input and output fluxes. Unknown parameters (e.g., magma reservoir influx rate, initial reservoir volume) are optimized for each model using a non-linear least squares technique to fit model trends to geochemical time-series data. The modeled mixing trend closely reproduces the observed compositional trend. The two models that match measured lava effusion rates have constant magma input and output fluxes and suggest a large pre-mixing magma reservoir (46±2 and 49±1 million m3), with little or no volume change over time. This volume is much larger than a previous estimate for the shallow, dike-shaped magma reservoir under the Puu Oo vent, which grew from ˜3 to ˜10 12 million m3. These volumetric differences are interpreted as indicating that mixing occurred first in a larger, deeper reservoir before the magma was injected into the overlying smaller reservoir.

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

PubMed

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Low, Pak Sum; Kelly, P. Michael; Davies, Trevor D.

1994-01-01

It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

Methane as a Diagnostic Tracer of Changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation of the Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, E. E.

2015-01-01

This study makes use of time series of methane (CH4/ data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) to detect whether there were any statistically significant changes of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) within the stratosphere during 1992-2005. The HALOE CH4 profiles are in terms of mixing ratio versus pressure altitude and are binned into latitude zones within the Southern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere. Their separate time series are then analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques. The CH4 trend terms for the Northern Hemisphere are significant and positive at 10 N from 50 to 7 hPa and larger than the tropospheric CH4 trends of about 3%decade(exp -1) from 20 to 7 hPa. At 60 N the trends are clearly negative from 20 to 7 hPa. Their combined trends indicate an acceleration of the BDC in the middle stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere during those years, most likely due to changes from the effects of wave activity. No similar significant BDC acceleration is found for the Southern Hemisphere. Trends from HALOE H2O are analyzed for consistency. Their mutual trends with CH4 are anti-correlated qualitatively in the middle and upper stratosphere, where CH4 is chemically oxidized to H2O. Conversely, their mutual trends in the lower stratosphere are dominated by their trends upon entry to the tropical stratosphere. Time series residuals for CH4 in the lower mesosphere also exhibit structures that are anti-correlated in some instances with those of the tracer-like species HCl. Their occasional aperiodic structures indicate the effects of transport following episodic, wintertime wave activity. It is concluded that observed multi-year, zonally averaged distributions of CH4 can be used to diagnose major instances of wave-induced transport in the middle atmosphere and to detect changes in the stratospheric BDC.

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

Recent lung cancer mortality trends in Europe: effect of national smoke-free legislation strengthening.

PubMed

López-Campos, Jose L; Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel; Fernandez, Esteve; Soriano, Joan B

2018-07-01

The impact of smoke-free legislation within European Union (EU) countries on lung cancer mortality has not been evaluated to date. We aimed to determine lung cancer mortality trends in the EU-27 by sex, age, and calendar year for the period of 1994 and 2012, and relate them with changes in tobacco legislation at the national level. Deaths by Eurostat in each European country were analyzed, focusing on ICD-10 codes C33 and C34 from the years 1994 to 2012. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASR) were estimated separately for women and men in the EU-27 total and within country for each one of the years studied, and the significance of changing trends was estimated by joinpoint regression analysis, exploring lag times after initiation of smoke-free legislation in every country, if any. From 1994 to 2012, there were 4 681 877 deaths from lung cancer in Europe (3 491 607 in men and 1 190 180 in women) and a nearly linear decrease in mortality rates because of lung cancer in men from was observed1994 to 2012, mirrored in women by an upward trend, narrowing the sex gap during the study period from 5.1 in 1994 to 2.8 in 2012. Joinpoint regression analysis identified a number of trend changes over time, but it appears that they were unrelated to the implementation of smoke-free legislations. A few years after the introduction of smoke-free legislations across Europe, trends of lung cancer mortality trends have not changed.

Quantifying temporal trends in fisheries abundance using Bayesian dynamic linear models: A case study of riverine Smallmouth Bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schall, Megan K.; Blazer, Vicki S.; Lorantas, Robert M.; Smith, Geoffrey; Mullican, John E.; Keplinger, Brandon J.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Detecting temporal changes in fish abundance is an essential component of fisheries management. Because of the need to understand short‐term and nonlinear changes in fish abundance, traditional linear models may not provide adequate information for management decisions. This study highlights the utility of Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) as a tool for quantifying temporal dynamics in fish abundance. To achieve this goal, we quantified temporal trends of Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu catch per effort (CPE) from rivers in the mid‐Atlantic states, and we calculated annual probabilities of decline from the posterior distributions of annual rates of change in CPE. We were interested in annual declines because of recent concerns about fish health in portions of the study area. In general, periods of decline were greatest within the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. The declines in CPE began in the late 1990s—prior to observations of fish health problems—and began to stabilize toward the end of the time series (2011). In contrast, many of the other rivers investigated did not have the same magnitude or duration of decline in CPE. Bayesian DLMs provide information about annual changes in abundance that can inform management and are easily communicated with managers and stakeholders.

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

2016-10-01

As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

[Visual field progression in glaucoma: cluster analysis].

PubMed

Bresson-Dumont, H; Hatton, J; Foucher, J; Fonteneau, M

2012-11-01

Visual field progression analysis is one of the key points in glaucoma monitoring, but distinction between true progression and random fluctuation is sometimes difficult. There are several different algorithms but no real consensus for detecting visual field progression. The trend analysis of global indices (MD, sLV) may miss localized deficits or be affected by media opacities. Conversely, point-by-point analysis makes progression difficult to differentiate from physiological variability, particularly when the sensitivity of a point is already low. The goal of our study was to analyse visual field progression with the EyeSuite™ Octopus Perimetry Clusters algorithm in patients with no significant changes in global indices or worsening of the analysis of pointwise linear regression. We analyzed the visual fields of 162 eyes (100 patients - 58 women, 42 men, average age 66.8 ± 10.91) with ocular hypertension or glaucoma. For inclusion, at least six reliable visual fields per eye were required, and the trend analysis (EyeSuite™ Perimetry) of visual field global indices (MD and SLV), could show no significant progression. The analysis of changes in cluster mode was then performed. In a second step, eyes with statistically significant worsening of at least one of their clusters were analyzed point-by-point with the Octopus Field Analysis (OFA). Fifty four eyes (33.33%) had a significant worsening in some clusters, while their global indices remained stable over time. In this group of patients, more advanced glaucoma was present than in stable group (MD 6.41 dB vs. 2.87); 64.82% (35/54) of those eyes in which the clusters progressed, however, had no statistically significant change in the trend analysis by pointwise linear regression. Most software algorithms for analyzing visual field progression are essentially trend analyses of global indices, or point-by-point linear regression. This study shows the potential role of analysis by clusters trend. However, for best results, it is preferable to compare the analyses of several tests in combination with morphologic exam. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Non-linear trends and fluctuations in temperature during different growth stages of summer maize in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Wu, Jidong; Wang, Xu; He, Xin; Li, Ning

2017-12-01

North China Plain has undergone severe warming trends since the 1950s, but whether this trend is the same during different growth phases for crops remains unknown. Thus, we analyzed the non-linear changes in the minimum temperature (T min ), mean temperature (T mean ) and maximum temperature (T max ) using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method during each growth stage of summer maize based on daily temperature data from 1960 to 2014. Our results strongly suggest that the trends and fluctuations in temperature change are non-linear. These changes can be categorized into four types of trend change according to the combinations of decreasing and increasing trends, and 8 fluctuation modes dominated by the fluctuations of expansion and shrinkage. The amplitude of the fluctuation is primarily expansion in the sowing-jointing stage and shrinkage in the jointing-maturity stage. Moreover, the temperature changes are inconsistent within each growth stage and are not consistent with the overall warming trend observed over the last 55 years. A transition period occurred in both the 1980s and the 1990s for temperatures during the sowing-tasseling stage. Furthermore, the cooling trend of the T max was significant in the sowing-emergence stage, while this cooling trend was not obvious for both T mean and T min in the jointing-tasseling stage. These results showed that temperature change was significantly different in different stages of the maize growth season. The results can serve as a scientific basis for a better understanding of the actual changes in the regional surface air temperature and agronomic heat resources.

Trend in active transportation to school among Swiss school children and its associated factors: three cross-sectional surveys 1994, 2000 and 2005

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Giving the rising trend in childhood obesity in many countries including Switzerland, strategies to increase physical activity such as promoting active school travel are important. Yet, little is known about time trends of active commuting in Swiss schoolchildren and factors associated with changes in walking and biking to school. Methods Between 1994 and 2005, information about mobility behaviour of children aged 6-14 years was collected within three Swiss population based national travel behaviour surveys. Mode of transport to school was reported for 4244 children. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess active school travel time trends and their influencing factors. Results More than 70% of Swiss children walked or biked to school. Nevertheless, the proportion of children biking to school decreased (p = 0.05, linear trend), predominately in urban areas, and motorized transportation increased since 1994 (p = 0.02). Distance to school did not change significantly over time but availability of bikes decreased (p < 0.001) and number of cars per household increased (p < 0.001). The association between survey year and bike use was significantly modified by living in an urban area (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.63 (0.44-0.90), 0.71 (0.49-1.03), respectively for 1994, 2000 and 2005) and by distance to school (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.65 (0.40-1.05), 0.50 (0.23-0.79) for the same years and for children who lived more than a mile away from school). Conclusions Programs to encourage safe biking and to limit car use as mode of transport to school are warranted to stop this trend. PMID:20398320

An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek

2017-09-01

Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω˙Ω¨-1 = C(tf - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.

Fertility time trends in dairy herds in northern Portugal.

PubMed

Rocha, A; Martins, A; Carvalheira, J

2010-10-01

The economics of dairy production are in great part dictated by the reproductive efficiency of the herds. Many studies have reported a widespread decrease in fertility of dairy cows. In a previous work (Rocha et al. 2001), we found a very poor oestrus detection rate (38%), and consequently a delayed calving to 1st AI and calving to conception intervals. However, a good conception rate at 1st AI was noted (51%) resulting in a low number of inseminations per pregnancy (IAP) (1.4). Here, results from a subsequent fertility time trend assessment study carried out in the same region for cows born from 1992 to 2002 are reported. Statistical linear models were used to analyse the data. Estimate linear contrasts of least square means were computed from each model. The number of observations per studied index varied from 12,130 (culling rate) to 57,589 (non-return rate). Mean age at first calving was 28.9 ± 0.14 months, without (p > 0.05) variation over time. There was a small, but significant (p < 0.05), deterioration of all other parameters. Non-return rates at 90 days and calving rate at 1st AI decreased 0.3% per trimester, with a consequent increase of 0.04 IA/parturition. Oestrus detection rate decreased 0.13% per year, and calving at 1st AI and calving-conception intervals increased 0.17 and 0.07 days/year respectively, while intercalving interval increased 1.7 days per year. From 12,130 cows calving, only 1,816 had a 4th lactation (85% culling/losses). The data was not meant to draw conclusions on the causes for the decreased fertility over time, but an increase of milk production from 6537 kg to 8590 kg (305 days) from 1996 to 2002 is probably one factor to take into consideration. Specific measures to revert or slow down this trend of decreasing fertility are warranted. Available strategies are discussed. © 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Duration-dependent effects of clinically relevant oral alendronate doses on cortical bone toughness in beagle dogs

PubMed Central

Burr, David B.; Liu, Ziyue; Allen, Matthew R.

2014-01-01

Bisphosphonates (BPs) have been shown to significantly reduce bone toughness in vertebrae within one year when given at clinical doses to dogs. Although BPs also reduce toughness in cortical bone when given at high doses, their effect on cortical bone material properties when given at clinical doses is less clear. In part, this may be due to the use of small sample sizes that were powered to demonstrate differences in bone mineral density rather than bone’s material properties. Our lab has conducted several studies in which dogs were treated with alendronate at a clinically relevant dose. The goal of this study was to examine these published and unpublished data collectively to determine whether there is a significant time-dependent effect of alendronate on toughness of cortical bone. This analysis seemed particularly relevant given the recent occurrence of atypical femoral fractures in humans. Differences in the toughness of ribs taken from dogs derived from five separate experiments were measured. The dogs were orally administered saline (CON, 1 ml/kg/day) or alendronate (ALN) at a clinical dose (0.2 mg/kg/day). Treatment duration ranged from 3 months to 3 years. Groups were compared using ANOVA, and time trends analyzed with linear regression analysis. Linear regressions of the percent difference in toughness between CON and ALN at each time point revealed a significant reduction in toughness with longer exposure to ALN. The downward trend was primarily driven by a downward trend in post-yield toughness, whereas toughness in the pre-yield region was not changed relative to CON. These data suggest that a longer duration of treatment with clinical doses of ALN results in deterioration of cortical bone toughness in a time-dependent manner. As the duration of treatment is lengthened, the cortical bone exhibits increasingly brittle behavior. This may be important in assessing the role that long-term BP treatments play in the risk of atypical fractures of femoral cortical bone in humans. PMID:25445446

Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

PubMed Central

Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

2017-01-01

Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Escartín, J. M.; CNRS, UMR5152, F-31062 Toulouse Cedex; Theory of Condensed Matter Group, Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, J.J. Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE

Time-Dependent Density-Functional Theory (TDDFT) is a well-established theoretical approach to describe and understand irradiation processes in clusters and molecules. However, within the so-called adiabatic local density approximation (ALDA) to the exchange-correlation (xc) potential, TDDFT can show insufficiencies, particularly in violently dynamical processes. This is because within ALDA the xc potential is instantaneous and is a local functional of the density, which means that this approximation neglects memory effects and long-range effects. A way to go beyond ALDA is to use Time-Dependent Current-Density-Functional Theory (TDCDFT), in which the basic quantity is the current density rather than the density as in TDDFT.more » This has been shown to offer an adequate account of dissipation in the linear domain when the Vignale-Kohn (VK) functional is used. Here, we go beyond the linear regime and we explore this formulation in the time domain. In this case, the equations become very involved making the computation out of reach; we hence propose an approximation to the VK functional which allows us to calculate the dynamics in real time and at the same time to keep most of the physics described by the VK functional. We apply this formulation to the calculation of the time-dependent dipole moment of Ca, Mg and Na{sub 2}. Our results show trends similar to what was previously observed in model systems or within linear response. In the non-linear domain, our results show that relaxation times do not decrease with increasing deposited excitation energy, which sets some limitations to the practical use of TDCDFT in such a domain of excitations.« less

Impact of the Economic Downturn on Elective Cervical Spine Surgery in the United States: A National Trend Analysis, 2003-2013.

PubMed

Bernstein, David N; Jain, Amit; Brodell, David; Li, Yue; Rubery, Paul T; Mesfin, Addisu

2016-12-01

To analyze overall trends of elective cervical spine surgery in the United States from 2003 to 2013 with the goal of determining whether the economic downturn had an impact. Codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification were used to identify elective cervical spine surgery procedures in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2003 to 2013. National Health Expenditure, gross domestic product, and S&P 500 Index were used as measures of economic performance. The economic downturn was defined as 2008-2009. Confidence intervals were determined using subgroup analysis techniques. Linear regressions were completed to determine the association between surgery trends and economic conditions. From 2003 to 2013, posterior cervical fusions saw a 102.7% increase. During the same time frame, there was a 7.4% and 14.7% decrease in the number of anterior cervical diskectomy and fusions (ACDFs) and posterior decompressions, respectively. The trend of elective cervical spine surgeries per 100,000 persons in the U.S. population may have been affected by the economic downturn from 2008 to 2009 (-0.03% growth). The percentage of procedures paid for by private insurance decreased from 2003 to 2013 for all ACDFs, posterior cervical fusions, and posterior decompressions. The linear regression coefficients (β) and R 2 values between the number of surgeries and each of the macroeconomic factors analyzed were not statistically significant. The overall elective cervical spine surgery trend was not likely impacted by the economic downturn. Posterior cervical fusions grew significantly from 2003 to 2013, whereas ACDFs and posterior decompressions decreased. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A long-term validation of the modernised DC-ARC-OES solid-sample method.

PubMed

Flórián, K; Hassler, J; Förster, O

2001-12-01

The validation procedure based on ISO 17025 standard has been used to study and illustrate both the longterm stability of the calibration process of the DC-ARC solid sample spectrometric method and the main validation criteria of the method. In the calculation of the validation characteristics depending on the linearity(calibration), also the fulfilment of predetermining criteria such as normality and homoscedasticity was checked. In order to decide whether there are any trends in the time-variation of the analytical signal or not, also the Neumann test of trend was applied and evaluated. Finally, a comparison with similar validation data of the ETV-ICP-OES method was carried out.

Using Generalized Additive Models to Analyze Single-Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadish, William; Sullivan, Kristynn

2013-01-01

Many analyses for single-case designs (SCDs)--including nearly all the effect size indicators-- currently assume no trend in the data. Regression and multilevel models allow for trend, but usually test only linear trend and have no principled way of knowing if higher order trends should be represented in the model. This paper shows how Generalized…

Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

2015-04-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

PubMed Central

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

Analysis of ERTS-1 imagery of Wyoming and its application to evaluation of Wyoming's natural resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackstone, D. L., Jr.

1972-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Structurally linear elements in the vicinity of the Rock Springs Uplift, Sweetwater County, Wyoming are reported for the first time. One element trends N 40 deg W near Farson, Wyoming and the other N 65 deg E from Rock Springs. These elements confirm the block-like or mosaic pattern of major structural elements in Wyoming.

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2015-04-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS (LOng Term Ozone Simulation - EURopean Operational Smog) to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by RACMO2 (Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel). Observations at European rural background sites have been used as a reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data, stringent selection criteria were applied, including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulfur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990s, while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000 and 2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulfate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured well these non-linear responses to the emission changes. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module, trends in the formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulfate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses in the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990s used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. H. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2014-07-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by the regional climate model RACMO2. Observations at European rural background sites have been used as reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data stringent selection criteria were applied including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the day-to-day, seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulphur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both, the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990's while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000-2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulphate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are significantly lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured these non-linear responses to the emission changes well. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module trends in formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulphate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses to the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990's used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Martian lineaments from Mariner 6 and 7 photographs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.; Ingerson, F. E.

1973-01-01

Mariner 6 and 7 photographs were used to investigate the nature and importance of linear surface trends on Mars. Cross correlations of frequency-azimuth distributions of linear trends from different Mariner frames indicate that lineations not recognized as topographic features have a component of pseudoforms, probably introduced during digital reconstruction of the pictures. Similar statistical tests may aid in the analysis of surface trends from future satellites and space probes. The most reliable data were separated into photometrically defined provinces. Meridiani Sinus and Margaritifer Sinus display five major trends in common, which are interpreted as extensions of crustal weaknesses related to the enormous equatorial canyon revealed in Mariner 6 and 9 pictures. Alignments of crater wall segments generally match these trends and suggest structural control of crater plan. Crater chains, however, do not match these trends and are interpreted as secondary impacts. Rose diagrams of lineations in Deucalionis Regio exhibit much more complexity and are believed to reflect a better preserved or more complex geologic history.

New Trends in Educational Lighting Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Peter

2001-01-01

Explores technological trends for improving campus lighting, including the use of direct-indirect suspended fluorescent lighting, suspended linear lighting, high-efficiency optical systems, and occupancy and daylight sensors. (GR)

On the Observed Changes in Upper Stratospheric and Mesospheric Temperatures from UARS HALOE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2006-01-01

Temperature versus pressure or T(p) time series from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) have been extended and re-analyzed for the period of 1991-2005 and for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere in 10-degree wide latitude zones from 60S to 60N. Even though sampling from a solar occultation experiment is somewhat limited, it is shown to be quite adequate for developing both the seasonal and longer-term variations in T(p). Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were used in the re-analyses for the seasonal and the significant interannual, solar cycle (SC-like or decadal-scale), and linear trend terms. A simple SC-like term of 11-yr period was fitted to the time series residuals after accounting for the seasonal and interannual terms. Highly significant SC-like responses were found for both the upper mesosphere and the upper stratosphere. The phases of these SC-like terms were checked for their continuity with latitude and pressure-altitude, and in almost all cases they are directly in-phase with that of standard proxies for the solar flux variations. The analyzed, max minus min, responses at low latitudes are of order 1 K, while at middle latitudes they are as large as 3 K in the upper mesosphere. Highly significant, linear cooling trends were found at middle latitudes of the middle to upper mesosphere (about -2 K/decade), at tropical latitudes of the middle mesosphere (about -1 K/decade), and at 2 hPa (or order -1 K/decade).

Analysis and Forecasting of Shoreline Position

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. C.; Tebbens, S. F.

2007-12-01

Analysis of historical shoreline positions on sandy coasts, in the geologic record, and study of sea-level rise curves reveals that the dynamics of the underlying processes produce temporal/spatial signals that exhibit power scaling and are therefore self-affine fractals. Self-affine time series signals can be quantified over many orders of magnitude in time and space in terms of persistence, a measure of the degree of correlation between adjacent values in the stochastic portion of a time series. Fractal statistics developed for self-affine time series are used to forecast a probability envelope bounding future shoreline positions. The envelope provides the standard deviation as a function of three variables: persistence, a constant equal to the value of the power spectral density when 1/period equals 1, and the number of time increments. The persistence of a twenty-year time series of the mean-high-water (MHW) shoreline positions was measured for four profiles surveyed at Duck, NC at the Field Research Facility (FRF) by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The four MHW shoreline time series signals are self-affine with persistence ranging between 0.8 and 0.9, which indicates that the shoreline position time series is weakly persistent (where zero is uncorrelated), and has highly varying trends for all time intervals sampled. Forecasts of a probability envelope for future MHW positions are made for the 20 years of record and beyond to 50 years from the start of the data records. The forecasts describe the twenty-year data sets well and indicate that within a 96% confidence envelope, future decadal MHW shoreline excursions should be within 14.6 m of the position at the start of data collection. This is a stable-oscillatory shoreline. The forecasting method introduced here includes the stochastic portion of the time series while the traditional method of predicting shoreline change reduces the time series to a linear trend line fit to historic shoreline positions and extrapolated linearly to forecast future positions with a linearly increasing mean that breaks the confidence envelope eight years into the future and continues to increase. The traditional method is a poor representation of the observed shoreline position time series and is a poor basis for extrapolating future shoreline positions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartolac, S; Letourneau, D; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario

Purpose: Application of process control theory in quality assurance programs promises to allow earlier identification of problems and potentially better quality in delivery than traditional paradigms based primarily on tolerances and action levels. The purpose of this project was to characterize underlying seasonal variations in linear accelerator output that can be used to improve performance or trigger preemptive maintenance. Methods: Review of runtime plots of daily (6 MV) output data acquired using in house ion chamber based devices over three years and for fifteen linear accelerators of varying make and model were evaluated. Shifts in output due to known interventionsmore » with the machines were subtracted from the data to model an uncorrected scenario for each linear accelerator. Observable linear trends were also removed from the data prior to evaluation of periodic variations. Results: Runtime plots of output revealed sinusoidal, seasonal variations that were consistent across all units, irrespective of manufacturer, model or age of machine. The average amplitude of the variation was on the order of 1%. Peak and minimum variations were found to correspond to early April and September, respectively. Approximately 48% of output adjustments made over the period examined were potentially avoidable if baseline levels had corresponded to the mean output, rather than to points near a peak or valley. Linear trends were observed for three of the fifteen units, with annual increases in output ranging from 2–3%. Conclusion: Characterization of cyclical seasonal trends allows for better separation of potentially innate accelerator behaviour from other behaviours (e.g. linear trends) that may be better described as true out of control states (i.e. non-stochastic deviations from otherwise expected behavior) and could indicate service requirements. Results also pointed to an optimal setpoint for accelerators such that output of machines is maintained within set tolerances and interventions are required less frequently.« less

Long-Term Coffee Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and a Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2013-01-01

Background Considerable controversy exists regarding the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. Methods and Results Pubmed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1,279,804 participants and 36,352 CVD cases. A non-linear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity = 0.09, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption (median: 0 cups/d), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.03) for the highest (median: 5 cups/d) category, 0.85 (0.80 to 0.90) for the second highest (median: 3.5 cups/d), and 0.89 (0.84 to 0.94) for the third highest category (median: 1.5 cups/d). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was non-linearly associated with both CHD (P for heterogeneity = 0.001, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001) and stroke risks (P for heterogeneity = 0.07, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity< 0.001) (P for trend differences > 0.05). Conclusions A non-linear association between coffee consumption with CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups/d, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk. PMID:24201300

Trends in social security benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer from 2006 to 2013 in Brazil.

PubMed

Bomfim, Rafael Aiello; Cascaes, Andreia Morales

2018-01-01

to analyze the trends in the concession of social security sick pay for oral and oropharyngeal cancer, from 2006 to 2013, in Brazil. time series study using data of workers insured by the Brazilian National Institute of Social Security (INSS); Prais-Winsten generalized linear regressions were used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC). social security benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer presented significant increase (APC=9.0%; 95%CI 1.4; 17.4); benefits for other parts of the mouth, nasopharynx, oropharynx, floor of mouth and palate have also shown significant increase; the areas of trade (5.5%) and manufacturing (5.2%) were the most prevalent activities; there was a high proportion of fields in blank in the information systems (average of 72.9%). trends in occupational benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer showed significant increase.

Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Pawson, Steven

2013-11-01

in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites.

Evaluation of Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: A Systematic Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Timothy K.; Goodman, Chris D.; Boldt, R. Gabriel

Purpose: Despite the rising costs in radiation oncology, the impact of health economics research on radiation therapy practice analysis patterns is unclear. We performed a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and cost-utility analyses (CUAs) to identify trends in reporting quality in the radiation oncology literature over time. Methods and Materials: A systematic review of radiation oncology economic evaluations up to 2014 was performed, using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guideline informed data abstraction variables including study demographics, economic parameters, and methodological details. Tufts Medical Center CEA registry quality scores provided a basis formore » qualitative assessment of included studies. Studies were stratified by 3 time periods (1995-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). The Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear trend test were used to identify trends over time. Results: In total, 102 articles were selected for final review. Most studies were in the context of a model (61%) or clinical trial (28%). Many studies lacked a conflict of interest (COI) statement (67%), a sponsorship statement (48%), a reported study time horizon (35%), and the use of discounting (29%). There was a significant increase over time in the reporting of a COI statement (P<.001), health care payer perspective (P=.019), sensitivity analyses using multivariate (P=.043) or probabilistic methods (P=.011), incremental cost-effectiveness threshold (P<.001), secondary source utility weights (P=.010), and cost effectiveness acceptability curves (P=.049). There was a trend toward improvement in Tuft scores over time (P=.065). Conclusions: Recent reports demonstrate improved reporting rates in economic evaluations; however, there remains significant room for improvement as reporting rates are still suboptimal. As fiscal pressures rise, we will rely on economic assessments to guide our practice decisions and policies. We recommend improved adherence to published guidelines and further research to determine the clinical implications of our findings.« less

Evaluation of Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Nguyen, Timothy K; Goodman, Chris D; Boldt, R Gabriel; Warner, Andrew; Palma, David A; Rodrigues, George B; Lock, Michael I; Mishra, Mark V; Zaric, Gregory S; Louie, Alexander V

2016-04-01

Despite the rising costs in radiation oncology, the impact of health economics research on radiation therapy practice analysis patterns is unclear. We performed a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and cost-utility analyses (CUAs) to identify trends in reporting quality in the radiation oncology literature over time. A systematic review of radiation oncology economic evaluations up to 2014 was performed, using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guideline informed data abstraction variables including study demographics, economic parameters, and methodological details. Tufts Medical Center CEA registry quality scores provided a basis for qualitative assessment of included studies. Studies were stratified by 3 time periods (1995-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). The Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear trend test were used to identify trends over time. In total, 102 articles were selected for final review. Most studies were in the context of a model (61%) or clinical trial (28%). Many studies lacked a conflict of interest (COI) statement (67%), a sponsorship statement (48%), a reported study time horizon (35%), and the use of discounting (29%). There was a significant increase over time in the reporting of a COI statement (P<.001), health care payer perspective (P=.019), sensitivity analyses using multivariate (P=.043) or probabilistic methods (P=.011), incremental cost-effectiveness threshold (P<.001), secondary source utility weights (P=.010), and cost effectiveness acceptability curves (P=.049). There was a trend toward improvement in Tuft scores over time (P=.065). Recent reports demonstrate improved reporting rates in economic evaluations; however, there remains significant room for improvement as reporting rates are still suboptimal. As fiscal pressures rise, we will rely on economic assessments to guide our practice decisions and policies. We recommend improved adherence to published guidelines and further research to determine the clinical implications of our findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dry spell trend analysis in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin using daily rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muita, R. R.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.

2012-04-01

Important agricultural areas in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia are largely semi-arid to arid. Persistent dry periods and timing of dry spells directly impact the availability of soil moisture and hence crop production in these regions. Most studies focus on the analysis of dry spell lengths at an annual scale. However, timing and length of dry spells at finer temporal scales is more beneficial for cropping when considering a trade-off between the time scale and the ability to analyse dry spell length. The aim of this study was to analyse the interannual and intra annual variations in dry spell lengths in the regions to inform crop management. This study analysed monthly dry spells based on daily rainfall for 1961-2010 on a limited dataset of 13 locations in Kenya and 17 locations in the MDB. This dataset was the most consistent across both regions and future analysis will incorporate more stations and longer time periods where available. Dry spell lengths were analysed by month and year and trends in monthly and annual dry spell lengths were analysed using Generalised Linear Models (GLM) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Overall, monthly dryspell lengths are right skewed with higher frequency of shorter dryspells (3-25 days). In Kenya, significant increases in mean dry spell lengths (p≤0.02) are observed in inland arid-to semi humid locations but this temporal trend appears to decrease in highland and the coastal regions. Analysis of the MDB stations suggests changes in seasonality. For example, spatial trends suggest a North-South increase in dry spell length in summer (December - February), but a shortening after February. Generally, the GLM and MK results are similar in the two regions but the MK test tends to give higher values of positive slope coefficients and lower values for negative coefficients compared to GLM. This may limit the ability of finding the best estimates for model coefficients. Previous studies in Australia and Kenya have relied on continuous climatic indices based on global climate models and stochastic processes resulting in limited and mixed results. For agronomical purposes, our results show that direct assessment of dry spells lengths from daily rainfall also indicates changes in dry spells trends in Kenya and the MDB and that such an analysis is easy to use and requires limited assumptions. This initial analysis identifies significant increasing trends in the dry spell lengths in some areas and periods in Kenya and the MDB. This has major implications for crop production in these regions and it is recommended that this information be incorporated in the regions' management decisions. KEY WORDS: monthly dry spell length; Generalized Linear Models; Mann -Kendall test; month; Kenya, Murray Darling Basin (MDB).

Compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers: international trends during 25 Years.

PubMed

Israelsson, Magnus; Gerdner, Arne

2012-01-01

The study explores international trends in law on compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers (CCC), and two subtypes - civil CCC and CCC within criminal justice legislation - as well as maximum length and amount of applications of such care. The time period covers more than 25 years, and a total of 104 countries and territories. The study is based on available data in three times of observation (1986, 1999 and 2009). Applications of CCC in number of cases are studied on European level for the years 2002-2006. Trends are analyzed using nonparametric tests and general linear models for repeated measures. Findings are discussed from contextual analysis. There is a trend towards decrease in the number of countries worldwide having civil CCC legislation after the millennium, while CCC under criminal law has increased since the mid-1980s, resulting in some total net decrease. The shift results in longer mean duration of CCC and an increase in the number of cases sentenced. There is a risk that the shift from civil CCC to penal CCC implies more focus on young out-acting males in compulsory treatment and that the societal responsibility for more vulnerable persons might be neglected. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Bayesian change point analysis of abundance trends for pelagic fishes in the upper San Francisco Estuary.

PubMed

Thomson, James R; Kimmerer, Wim J; Brown, Larry R; Newman, Ken B; Mac Nally, Ralph; Bennett, William A; Feyrer, Frederick; Fleishman, Erica

2010-07-01

We examined trends in abundance of four pelagic fish species (delta smelt, longfin smelt, striped bass, and threadfin shad) in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, over 40 years using Bayesian change point models. Change point models identify times of abrupt or unusual changes in absolute abundance (step changes) or in rates of change in abundance (trend changes). We coupled Bayesian model selection with linear regression splines to identify biotic or abiotic covariates with the strongest associations with abundances of each species. We then refitted change point models conditional on the selected covariates to explore whether those covariates could explain statistical trends or change points in species abundances. We also fitted a multispecies change point model that identified change points common to all species. All models included hierarchical structures to model data uncertainties, including observation errors and missing covariate values. There were step declines in abundances of all four species in the early 2000s, with a likely common decline in 2002. Abiotic variables, including water clarity, position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (X2), and the volume of freshwater exported from the estuary, explained some variation in species' abundances over the time series, but no selected covariates could explain statistically the post-2000 change points for any species.

Effectiveness of Family Planning Policies: The Abortion Paradox

PubMed Central

Bajos, Nathalie; Le Guen, Mireille; Bohet, Aline; Panjo, Henri; Moreau, Caroline

2014-01-01

Objective The relation between levels of contraceptive use and the incidence of induced abortion remains a topic of heated debate. Many of the contradictions are likely due to the fact that abortion is the end point of a process that starts with sexual activity, contraceptive use (or non-use), followed by unwanted pregnancy, a decision to terminate, and access to abortion. Trends in abortion rates reflect changes in each step of this process, and opposing trends may cancel each other out. This paper aims to investigate the roles played by the dissemination of contraception and the evolving norms of motherhood on changes in abortion rates. Methods Drawing data from six national probability surveys that explored contraception and pregnancy wantedness in France from 1978 through 2010, we used multivariate linear regression to explore the associations between trends in contraceptive rates and trends in (i) abortion rates, (ii) unwanted pregnancy rates, (iii) and unwanted birth rates, and to determine which of these 3 associations was strongest. Findings The association between contraceptive rates and abortion rates over time was weaker than that between contraception rates and unwanted pregnancy rates (p = 0.003). Similarly, the association between contraceptive rates and unwanted birth rates over time was weaker than that between contraceptive rates and unwanted pregnancy rates (p = 0.000). PMID:24670784

Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatan, Abayomi A.; Osayomi, Tolulope; Akande, Samuel O.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-02-01

In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971-2012 at annual and seasonal scales using the high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth-century dataset (ERA-20C) at 15 grid points. Magnitudes of linear trends in mean and extreme temperatures and their statistical significance were calculated using ordinary least squares and Mann-Kendall rank statistic tests. The results show that Ibadan has witnessed an increase in annual and seasonal mean minimum temperatures. The annual mean maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant decline in most parts of Ibadan. While trends in cold extremes at annual scale show warming, trends in coldest night show greater warming than in coldest day. At the seasonal scale, we found that Ibadan experienced a mix of positive and negative trends in absolute extreme temperature indices. However, cold extremes show the largest trend magnitudes, with trends in coldest night showing the greatest warming. The results compare well with those obtained from a limited number of stations. This study should inform decision-makers and urban planners about the ongoing warming in Ibadan.

Interannual, solar cycle, and trend terms in middle atmospheric temperature time series from HALOE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remsberg, E. E.; Deaver, L. E.

2005-03-01

Temperature versus pressure or T(p) time series from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) have been generated and analyzed for the period of 1991-2004 and for the mesosphere and upper stratosphere for latitude zones from 40N to 40S. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were used for the analysis of the seasonal and the significant interannual and solar cycle (or decadal-scale) terms. An 11-yr solar cycle (SC) term of amplitude 0.5 to 1.7 K was found for the middle to upper mesosphere; its phase was determined by a Fourier fit to the de-seasonalized residual. This SC term is largest and has a lag of several years for northern hemisphere middle latitudes of the middle mesosphere, perhaps due to the interfering effects of wintertime wave dissipation. The SC response from the MLR models is weaker but essentially in-phase at low latitudes and in the southern hemisphere. An in-phase SC response term is also significant near the tropical stratopause with an amplitude of about 0.4 to 0.6 K, which is somewhat less than predicted from models. Both sub-biennial (688-dy) and QBO (800-dy) terms are resolved for the mid to upper stratosphere along with a decadal-scale term that is presumed to have a 13.5-yr period due to their predicted modulation. This decadal-scale term is out-of-phase with the SC during 1991-2004. However, the true nature and source of this term is still uncertain, especially at 5 hPa. Significant linear cooling trends ranging from -0.3 K to -1.1 K per decade were found in the tropical upper stratosphere and subtropical mesosphere. Trends have not emerged so far for the tropical mesosphere, so it is concluded that the cooling rates that have been resolved for the subtropics are likely upper limits. As HALOE-like measurements continue and their time series lengthen, it is anticipated that better accuracy can be achieved for these interannual, SC, and trend terms.

Inverse sequential procedures for the monitoring of time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1995-01-01

When one or more new values are added to a developing time series, they change its descriptive parameters (mean, variance, trend, coherence). A 'change index (CI)' is developed as a quantitative indicator that the changed parameters remain compatible with the existing 'base' data. CI formulate are derived, in terms of normalized likelihood ratios, for small samples from Poisson, Gaussian, and Chi-Square distributions, and for regression coefficients measuring linear or exponential trends. A substantial parameter change creates a rapid or abrupt CI decrease which persists when the length of the bases is changed. Except for a special Gaussian case, the CI has no simple explicit regions for tests of hypotheses. However, its design ensures that the series sampled need not conform strictly to the distribution form assumed for the parameter estimates. The use of the CI is illustrated with both constructed and observed data samples, processed with a Fortran code 'Sequitor'.

Mapping Greenland’s mass loss in space and time

PubMed Central

Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.

2012-01-01

The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Early estimates of the mass lost from the Greenland ice cap, based on satellite gravity data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, have widely varied. Although the continentally and decadally averaged estimated trends have now more or less converged, to this date, there has been little clarity on the detailed spatial distribution of Greenland’s mass loss and how the geographical pattern has varied on relatively shorter time scales. Here, we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the ice mass change over Greenland between April of 2002 and August of 2011. Although the total mass loss trend has remained linear, actively changing areas of mass loss were concentrated on the southeastern and northwestern coasts, with ice mass in the center of Greenland steadily increasing over the decade. PMID:23169646

Accurate ocean bottom seismometer positioning method inspired by multilateration technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benazzouz, Omar; Pinheiro, Luis M.; Matias, Luis M. A.; Afilhado, Alexandra; Herold, Daniel; Haines, Seth S.

2018-01-01

The positioning of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) is a key step in the processing flow of OBS data, especially in the case of self popup types of OBS instruments. The use of first arrivals from airgun shots, rather than relying on the acoustic transponders mounted in the OBS, is becoming a trend and generally leads to more accurate positioning due to the statistics from a large number of shots. In this paper, a linearization of the OBS positioning problem via the multilateration technique is discussed. The discussed linear solution solves jointly for the average water layer velocity and the OBS position using only shot locations and first arrival times as input data.

Regional Landslide Mapping Aided by Automated Classification of SqueeSAR™ Time Series (Northern Apennines, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iannacone, J.; Berti, M.; Allievi, J.; Del Conte, S.; Corsini, A.

2013-12-01

Space borne InSAR has proven to be very valuable for landslides detection. In particular, extremely slow landslides (Cruden and Varnes, 1996) can be now clearly identified, thanks to the millimetric precision reached by recent multi-interferometric algorithms. The typical approach in radar interpretation for landslides mapping is based on average annual velocity of the deformation which is calculated over the entire times series. The Hotspot and Cluster Analysis (Lu et al., 2012) and the PSI-based matrix approach (Cigna et al., 2013) are examples of landslides mapping techniques based on average annual velocities. However, slope movements can be affected by non-linear deformation trends, (i.e. reactivation of dormant landslides, deceleration due to natural or man-made slope stabilization, seasonal activity, etc). Therefore, analyzing deformation time series is crucial in order to fully characterize slope dynamics. While this is relatively simple to be carried out manually when dealing with small dataset, the time series analysis over regional scale dataset requires automated classification procedures. Berti et al. (2013) developed an automatic procedure for the analysis of InSAR time series based on a sequence of statistical tests. The analysis allows to classify the time series into six distinctive target trends (0=uncorrelated; 1=linear; 2=quadratic; 3=bilinear; 4=discontinuous without constant velocity; 5=discontinuous with change in velocity) which are likely to represent different slope processes. The analysis also provides a series of descriptive parameters which can be used to characterize the temporal changes of ground motion. All the classification algorithms were integrated into a Graphical User Interface called PSTime. We investigated an area of about 2000 km2 in the Northern Apennines of Italy by using SqueeSAR™ algorithm (Ferretti et al., 2011). Two Radarsat-1 data stack, comprising of 112 scenes in descending orbit and 124 scenes in ascending orbit, were processed. The time coverage lasts from April 2003 to November 2012, with an average temporal frequency of 1 scene/month. Radar interpretation has been carried out by considering average annual velocities as well as acceleration/deceleration trends evidenced by PSTime. Altogether, from ascending and descending geometries respectively, this approach allowed detecting of 115 and 112 potential landslides on the basis of average displacement rate and 77 and 79 landslides on the basis of acceleration trends. In conclusion, time series analysis resulted to be very valuable for landslide mapping. In particular it highlighted areas with marked acceleration in a specific period in time while still being affected by low average annual velocity over the entire analysis period. On the other hand, even in areas with high average annual velocity, time series analysis was of primary importance to characterize the slope dynamics in terms of acceleration events.

Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, J.S.; Gould, W.R.; Hoover, B.A.; Fuller, M.R.; Lindquist, E.L.

1996-01-01

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

Joint trajectories of cognitive functioning and challenging behavior for persons living with dementia in long-term care.

PubMed

Robitaille, Annie; Garcia, Linda; McIntosh, Cameron

2015-09-01

The current study examines the longitudinal relationship between dementia-related challenging behaviors (e.g., vocal disruption, physical aggression, repetitive behaviors, and restlessness) and cognitive functioning in the long-term care (LTC) context. A multivariate latent growth curve model within the structural equation modeling (SEM) framework was applied to data collected from 16,804 older adults upon admission to LTC and every 3 months for a period of 2.5 years. Increases in challenging behaviors were characterized by a significant positive linear and negative quadratic trend (i.e., a subtle leveling off at later assessment times), whereas increases in cognitive impairment were characterized by a positive linear trend. On average, individuals who were more cognitively impaired upon entry into LTC and who exhibited a steeper increase in cognitive impairment also exhibited more challenging behaviors at entry into LTC and a steeper increase in challenging behaviors, respectively. At the within-person level, individuals demonstrating an increase in cognitive impairment at a specific occasion were also more likely to demonstrate an increase in challenging behaviors at that same occasion; however, the magnitude of these effects was very small, suggesting limited practical implications. This study provides novel empirical evidence about the coevolution of cognitive impairment and challenging behaviors, going beyond prior research that has been either cross-sectional in nature, examined longitudinal change in only 1 variable, or simply looked at linear trends without attempting to explore the possibility of nonlinear change. Most importantly, this longitudinal examination of persons with dementia living in LTC has implications for how challenging behaviors can be better managed and for how new strategies can be implemented to prevent challenging behaviors. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Duration of U.S. residence and suicidality among racial/ethnic minority immigrants.

PubMed

Brown, Monique J; Cohen, Steven A; Mezuk, Briana

2015-02-01

The immigration experience embodies a range of factors including different cultural norms and expectations, which may be particularly important for groups who become racial/ethnic minorities when they migrate to the U.S. However, little is known about the correlates of mental health indicators among these groups. The primary and secondary aims were to determine the association between duration of U.S. residence and suicidality, and 12-month mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders, respectively, among racial/ethnic minority immigrants. Data were obtained from the National Survey of American Life and the National Latino and Asian American Survey. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association between duration of US residence, and suicidality and 12-month psychopathology. Among Afro-Caribbeans, there was a modest positive association between duration of U.S. residence and 12-month psychopathology (P linear trend = 0.016). Among Asians there was a modest positive association between duration of US residence and suicidal ideation and attempts (P linear trend = 0.018, 0.063, respectively). Among Latinos, there was a positive association between duration of US residence, and suicidal ideation, attempts and 12-month psychopathology (P linear trend = 0.001, 0.012, 0.002, respectively). Latinos who had been in the U.S. for >20 years had 2.6 times greater likelihood of suicidal ideation relative to those who had been in the U.S. for <5 years (95% CI 1.01-6.78). The association between duration of US residence and suicidality and psychopathology varies across racial/ethnic minority groups. The results for Latino immigrants are broadly consistent with the goal-striving or acculturation stress hypothesis.

Metabolites as novel biomarkers for childhood obesity-related traits in Mexican-American children.

PubMed

Farook, V S; Reddivari, L; Chittoor, G; Puppala, S; Arya, R; Fowler, S P; Hunt, K J; Curran, J E; Comuzzie, A G; Lehman, D M; Jenkinson, C P; Lynch, J L; DeFronzo, R A; Blangero, J; Hale, D E; Duggirala, R; Vanamala, J

2015-08-01

Although newer approaches have identified several metabolites associated with obesity, there is paucity of such information in paediatric populations, especially among Mexican-Americans (MAs) who are at high risk of obesity. Therefore, we performed a global serum metabolite screening in MA children to identify biomarkers of childhood obesity. We selected 15 normal-weight, 13 overweight and 14 obese MA children (6-17 years) and performed global serum metabolite screening using ultra-performance liquid chromatography/quadruple orthogonal acceleration time of flight tandem micro mass spectrometer. Metabolite values were analysed to assess mean differences among groups using one-way analysis of variance, to test for linear trend across groups and to examine Pearson's correlations between them and seven cardiometabolic traits (CMTs): body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model of assessment-insulin resistance, triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. We identified 14 metabolites exhibiting differences between groups as well as linear trend across groups with nominal statistical significance. After adjustment for multiple testing, mean differences and linear trends across groups remained significant (P < 5.9 × 10(-5) ) for L-thyronine, bradykinin and naringenin. Of the examined metabolite-CMT trait pairs, all metabolites except for 2-methylbutyroylcarnitine were nominally associated with two or more CMTs, some exhibiting significance even after accounting for multiple testing (P < 3.6 × 10(-3) ). To our knowledge, this study - albeit pilot in nature - is the first study to identify these metabolites as novel biomarkers of childhood obesity and its correlates. These findings signify the need for future systematic investigations of metabolic pathways underlying childhood obesity. © 2014 World Obesity.

Gender disparities in prosthodontics: authorship and leadership, 13 years of observation.

PubMed

Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Knoernschild, Kent L; Campbell, Stephen D; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in prosthodontics by reviewing the trend of female authorship in prosthodontic journals and exploring the role of female leadership in prosthodontic organizations and Advanced Education in Prosthodontic (AEP) programs. Three journals representing the prosthodontic specialty were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentist first and last (senior) authors for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Article inclusion criteria were restricted to the first or last authors who held at least a DMD/DDS/BDS degree and were from U.S. institutions. Data on female leadership in prosthodontic organizations and advanced education programs were collected, and the trends were studied. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. A linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the proportion of female authorship compared to male in the dental literature. A Fisher's Exact Test was performed to contrast differences of female first and last authorship in the selected journals between years 1995 and 2008. Overall, there was no statistically significant linear increase in the proportion of either first or last female authorship compared to male authorship over time. With respect to each journal, the linear regression analysis showed that the increase of first female authorship was statistically significant (p= 0.016) compared to male authorship only in the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. The percentage of female presidents of prosthodontic organizations has been very limited. A similar trend was also observed in AEP program director positions. Over the past 13 years, female dentists' participation in prosthodontics literature authorship has not increased significantly in the United States. Furthermore, female involvement in prosthodontics leadership has been limited over the past decades. © 2010 by The American College of Prosthodontists.

Temporal variability and coloured noise of SLR translations with respect to the ITRF2014 origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddell, Anna; King, Matt; Watson, Christopher; Rietbroek, Roelof; Sun, Yu; Riva, Riccardo

2017-04-01

Inferring large-scale environmental change, such as of sea-level change, glacial isostatic adjustment or ice sheet volume change (i.e. from altimetry), requires a geodetic reference frame stable to 0.1 mm/yr. Since 1988, each iterative improvement in the precision of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) has enabled significant advancement of scientific and technical research in the Earth sciences. We demonstrate the occurrence of coloured noise in the translation components between the SLR network and the long-term ITRF2014 origin from 1993.0 to 2015.0 with power law spectral indices close to -1, where white-noise-only linear trend uncertainties are underestimated by a factor of five in contrast to power-law linear trend uncertainties. The observed geocentre motion is expected to be influenced by the SLR observing network, known as the "network effect". Temporal translations in the SLR network may not necessarily average out over long time periods and therefore have the potential to shift the computed reference frame origin from the true long term centre of mass. Comparison with geophysical loading models demonstrates that the variability cannot be fully accounted for by surface mass transport such as changes in atmospheric, hydrologic or glacial loading. Our results demonstrate that the proportion of variance explained by geophysical surface loading is less than 50% in each translational component. Evidence of temporal variability in both the SLR amplitude and trend of the annual signal suggest that a different coloured noise model be considered in place of, or as an extension of, the traditional linear and white-noise-only model to represent the long-term average centre of mass.

Lessons from Jurassic Park: patients as complex adaptive systems.

PubMed

Katerndahl, David A

2009-08-01

With realization that non-linearity is generally the rule rather than the exception in nature, viewing patients and families as complex adaptive systems may lead to a better understanding of health and illness. Doctors who successfully practise the 'art' of medicine may recognize non-linear principles at work without having the jargon needed to label them. Complex adaptive systems are systems composed of multiple components that display complexity and adaptation to input. These systems consist of self-organized components, which display complex dynamics, ranging from simple periodicity to chaotic and random patterns showing trends over time. Understanding the non-linear dynamics of phenomena both internal and external to our patients can (1) improve our definition of 'health'; (2) improve our understanding of patients, disease and the systems in which they converge; (3) be applied to future monitoring systems; and (4) be used to possibly engineer change. Such a non-linear view of the world is quite congruent with the generalist perspective.

Using Google Flu Trends data in forecasting influenza-like-illness related ED visits in Omaha, Nebraska.

PubMed

Araz, Ozgur M; Bentley, Dan; Muelleman, Robert L

2014-09-01

Emergency department (ED) visits increase during the influenza seasons. It is essential to identify statistically significant correlates in order to develop an accurate forecasting model for ED visits. Forecasting influenza-like-illness (ILI)-related ED visits can significantly help in developing robust resource management strategies at the EDs. We first performed correlation analyses to understand temporal correlations between several predictors of ILI-related ED visits. We used the data available for Douglas County, the biggest county in Nebraska, for Omaha, the biggest city in the state, and for a major hospital in Omaha. The data set included total and positive influenza test results from the hospital (ie, Antigen rapid (Ag) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) tests); an Internet-based influenza surveillance system data, that is, Google Flu Trends, for both Nebraska and Omaha; total ED visits in Douglas County attributable to ILI; and ILI surveillance network data for Douglas County and Nebraska as the predictors and data for the hospital's ILI-related ED visits as the dependent variable. We used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt Winters methods with3 linear regression models to forecast ILI-related ED visits at the hospital and evaluated model performances by comparing the root means square errors (RMSEs). Because of strong positive correlations with ILI-related ED visits between 2008 and 2012, we validated the use of Google Flu Trends data as a predictor in an ED influenza surveillance tool. Of the 5 forecasting models we have tested, linear regression models performed significantly better when Google Flu Trends data were included as a predictor. Regression models including Google Flu Trends data as a predictor variable have lower RMSE, and the lowest is achieved when all other variables are also included in the model in our forecasting experiments for the first 5 weeks of 2013 (with RMSE = 57.61). Google Flu Trends data statistically improve the performance of predicting ILI-related ED visits in Douglas County, and this result can be generalized to other communities. Timely and accurate estimates of ED volume during the influenza season, as well as during pandemic outbreaks, can help hospitals plan their ED resources accordingly and lower their costs by optimizing supplies and staffing and can improve service quality by decreasing ED wait times and overcrowding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Tummon, Fiona; Haigh, Joanna D.

2017-10-01

Observations of stratospheric ozone from multiple instruments now span three decades; combining these into composite datasets allows long-term ozone trends to be estimated. Recently, several ozone composites have been published, but trends disagree by latitude and altitude, even between composites built upon the same instrument data. We confirm that the main causes of differences in decadal trend estimates lie in (i) steps in the composite time series when the instrument source data changes and (ii) artificial sub-decadal trends in the underlying instrument data. These artefacts introduce features that can alias with regressors in multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis; both can lead to inaccurate trend estimates. Here, we aim to remove these artefacts using Bayesian methods to infer the underlying ozone time series from a set of composites by building a joint-likelihood function using a Gaussian-mixture density to model outliers introduced by data artefacts, together with a data-driven prior on ozone variability that incorporates knowledge of problems during instrument operation. We apply this Bayesian self-calibration approach to stratospheric ozone in 10° bands from 60° S to 60° N and from 46 to 1 hPa (˜ 21-48 km) for 1985-2012. There are two main outcomes: (i) we independently identify and confirm many of the data problems previously identified, but which remain unaccounted for in existing composites; (ii) we construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties, that is free from most of these problems - we call this the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite. To analyse the new BASIC composite, we use dynamical linear modelling (DLM), which provides a more robust estimate of long-term changes through Bayesian inference than MLR. BASIC and DLM, together, provide a step forward in improving estimates of decadal trends. Our results indicate a significant recovery of ozone since 1998 in the upper stratosphere, of both northern and southern midlatitudes, in all four composites analysed, and particularly in the BASIC composite. The BASIC results also show no hemispheric difference in the recovery at midlatitudes, in contrast to an apparent feature that is present, but not consistent, in the four composites. Our overall conclusion is that it is possible to effectively combine different ozone composites and account for artefacts and drifts, and that this leads to a clear and significant result that upper stratospheric ozone levels have increased since 1998, following an earlier decline.

Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

2013-01-01

The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

Trends in High-Risk Sexual Behaviors among General Population Groups in China: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W. N.; de Vlas, Sake J.

2013-01-01

Background The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Methods We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Results We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Discussion Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population. PMID:24236121

Mortality reduction associated with HIV/AIDS care and antiretroviral treatment in rural Malawi: evidence from registers, coffin sales and funerals.

PubMed

Mwagomba, Beatrice; Zachariah, Rony; Massaquoi, Moses; Misindi, Dalitso; Manzi, Marcel; Mandere, Bester C; Bemelmans, Marielle; Philips, Mit; Kamoto, Kelita; Schouten, Eric J; Harries, Anthony D

2010-05-04

To report on the trend in all-cause mortality in a rural district of Malawi that has successfully scaled-up HIV/AIDS care including antiretroviral treatment (ART) to its population, through corroborative evidence from a) registered deaths at traditional authorities (TAs), b) coffin sales and c) church funerals. Retrospective study in 5 of 12 TAs (covering approximately 50% of the population) during the period 2000-2007. A total of 210 villages, 24 coffin workshops and 23 churches were included. There were a total of 18,473 registered deaths at TAs, 15781 coffins sold, and 2762 church funerals. Between 2000 and 2007, there was a highly significant linear downward trend in death rates, sale of coffins and church funerals (X(2) for linear trend: 338.4 P<0.0001, 989 P<0.0001 and 197, P<0.0001 respectively). Using data from TAs as the most reliable source of data on deaths, overall death rate reduction was 37% (95% CI:33-40) for the period. The mean annual incremental death rate reduction was 0.52/1000/year. Death rates decreased over time as the percentage of people living with HIV/AIDS enrolled into care and ART increased. Extrapolating these data to the entire district population, an estimated 10,156 (95% CI: 9786-10259) deaths would have been averted during the 8-year period. Registered deaths at traditional authorities, the sale of coffins and church funerals showed a significant downward trend over a 8-year period which we believe was associated with the scaling up HIV/AIDS care and ART.

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

PubMed

Crewe, Tara L; Taylor, Philip D; Lepage, Denis

2015-01-01

The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration) to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling) to reduce the probability that individuals will be detected on more than one occasion.

Numerical calculations of spectral turnover and synchrotron self-absorption in CSS and GPS radio sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyakumar, S.

2016-06-01

The dependence of the turnover frequency on the linear size is presented for a sample of Giga-hertz Peaked Spectrum and Compact Steep Spectrum radio sources derived from complete samples. The dependence of the luminosity of the emission at the peak frequency with the linear size and the peak frequency is also presented for the galaxies in the sample. The luminosity of the smaller sources evolve strongly with the linear size. Optical depth effects have been included to the 3D model for the radio source of Kaiser to study the spectral turnover. Using this model, the observed trend can be explained by synchrotron self-absorption. The observed trend in the peak-frequency-linear-size plane is not affected by the luminosity evolution of the sources.

SYSTEMATIC AND STOCHASTIC VARIATIONS IN PULSAR DISPERSION MEASURES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lam, M. T.; Cordes, J. M.; Chatterjee, S.

2016-04-10

We analyze deterministic and random temporal variations in the dispersion measure (DM) from the full three-dimensional velocities of pulsars with respect to the solar system, combined with electron-density variations over a wide range of length scales. Previous treatments have largely ignored pulsars’ changing distances while favoring interpretations involving changes in sky position from transverse motion. Linear trends in pulsar DMs observed over 5–10 year timescales may signify sizable DM gradients in the interstellar medium (ISM) sampled by the changing direction of the line of sight to the pulsar. We show that motions parallel to the line of sight can alsomore » account for linear trends, for the apparent excess of DM variance over that extrapolated from scintillation measurements, and for the apparent non-Kolmogorov scalings of DM structure functions inferred in some cases. Pulsar motions through atomic gas may produce bow-shock ionized gas that also contributes to DM variations. We discuss the possible causes of periodic or quasi-periodic changes in DM, including seasonal changes in the ionosphere, annual variations of the solar elongation angle, structure in the heliosphere and ISM boundary, and substructure in the ISM. We assess the solar cycle’s role on the amplitude of ionospheric and solar wind variations. Interstellar refraction can produce cyclic timing variations from the error in transforming arrival times to the solar system barycenter. We apply our methods to DM time series and DM gradient measurements in the literature and assess their consistency with a Kolmogorov medium. Finally, we discuss the implications of DM modeling in precision pulsar timing experiments.« less

Tropical Rainfall Variability on Interannual-to-Interdecadal/Longer-Time Scales Derived from the GPCP Monthly Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Curtis, Scott

2006-01-01

Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 26-year (1979-2004) GPCP monthly dataset (Adler et al., 2003). Our emphasis is to discriminate among variations due to ENSO, volcanic events, and possible long-term climate changes in the tropics. Although the global linear change of precipitation in the data set is near zero during the time period, an increase in tropical rainfall is noted, with a weaker decrease over northern hemisphere middle latitudes. Focusing on the tropics (25degS-25degN), the data set indicates an upward trend (0.06 mm/day/decade) and a downward trend (-0.02 mm/day/decade) over tropical ocean and land, respectively. This corresponds to an about 4.9% increase (ocean) and 1.6% decrease (land) during the entire 26-year time period. Techniques are applied to isolate and quantify variations due to ENSO and two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon, March 1982; Pinatubo, June 1991) in order to examine longer time-scale changes. The ENSO events generally do not impact the tropical total rainfall, but, of course, induce significant anomalies with opposite signs over tropical land and ocean. The impact of the two volcanic eruptions is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall over both land and ocean. A modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effects removed) retains the same approximate linear change slopes, but with reduced variance, thereby increasing the confidence levels associated with the long-term rainfall changes in the tropics 2

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976–88

PubMed Central

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-01-01

Background Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Methods A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. Results An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16–18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3–6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2–10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6–15.1)] mortality. Conclusions The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality. PMID:19188208

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976-88.

PubMed

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-02-01

Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16-18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3-6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2-10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6-15.1)] mortality. The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality.

Investigating the Uncertainty in Global SST Trends Due to Internal Variations Using an Improved Trend Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao; Shen, Zheqi; Ying, Jun; Tang, Youmin; Li, Junde; Ling, Zheng

2018-03-01

A new criterion was proposed recently to measure the influence of internal variations on secular trends in a time series. When the magnitude of the trend is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from internal variations, the sign of the estimated trend can be interpreted as the underlying long-term change. Otherwise, the sign may depend on the period chosen. An improved least squares method is developed here to further reduce the theoretical threshold and is applied to eight sea surface temperature (SST) data sets covering the period 1881-2013 to investigate whether there are robust trends in global SSTs. It is found that the warming trends in the western boundary regions, the South Atlantic, and the tropical and southern-most Indian Ocean are robust. However, robust trends are not found in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, or the South Indian Ocean. The globally averaged SST and Indian Ocean Dipole indices are found to have robustly increased, whereas trends in the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific, Niño 3.4 SST, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices are within the uncertainty range associated with internal variations. These results indicate that great care is required when interpreting SST trends using the available records in certain regions and indices. It is worth noting that the theoretical threshold can be strongly influenced by low-frequency oscillations, and the above conclusions are based on the assumption that trends are linear. Caution should be exercised when applying the theoretical threshold criterion to real data.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Temporal trends in self harm and aggression on a paediatric mental health ward.

PubMed

Berntsen, Ellen; Starling, Jean; Durheim, Earle; Hainsworth, Cassandra; de Kloet, Liselotte; Chapman, Lucy; Hancock, Karen

2011-02-01

The aim of this paper is to describe trends in aggression and self harm on a mental health inpatient unit for children and adolescents between January 2006 and August 2009. Various ward interventions and the ward milieu were evaluated as possible explanatory factors for trends. This was a retrospective study whereby incidents of aggression, self harm and seclusion were obtained from a computerized Incident Information Management System (IIMS) database. Trends in incidents were analysed using linear regression analyses. Over a 44-month period, 292 incidents of aggression and 139 incidents of self harm were reported. The use of seclusion and the number of aggressive incidents both significantly decreased over time. Trends suggested a positive relationship between the introduction of restraint training, changes in leadership and full staff complement, and a reduction in aggression and seclusion. Although the findings are limited by their retrospective nature and reliance on formal records, this study suggests that different factors can contribute to decrease the incidence of adverse events on a psychiatric ward. Future prospective research is needed to assess the effectiveness of different interventions in both the prevention and management of self harm, aggression and seclusion in child and adolescent inpatient units.

New and Recurrent Concussions in High-School Athletes Before and After Traumatic Brain Injury Laws, 2005-2016.

PubMed

Yang, Jingzhen; Comstock, R Dawn; Yi, Honggang; Harvey, Hosea H; Xun, Pengcheng

2017-12-01

To examine the trends of new and recurrent sports-related concussions in high-school athletes before and after youth sports traumatic brain injury laws. We used an interrupted time-series design and analyzed the concussion data (2005-2016) from High School Reporting Injury Online. We examined the trends of new or recurrent concussion rates among US representative high-school athletes participating in 9 sports across prelaw, immediate-postlaw, and postlaw periods by using general linear models. We defined 1 athlete exposure as attending 1 competition or practice. We included a total of 8043 reported concussions (88.7% new, 11.3% recurrent). The average annual concussion rate was 39.8 per 100 000 athlete exposures. We observed significantly increased trends of reported new and recurrent concussions from the prelaw, through immediate-postlaw, into the postlaw period. However, the recurrent concussion rate showed a significant decline 2.6 years after the laws went into effect. Football exhibited different trends compared with other boys' sports and girls' sports. Observed trends of increased concussion rates are likely attributable to increased identification and reporting. Additional research is needed to evaluate intended long-term impact of traumatic brain injury laws.

Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

PubMed

Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Evolution of treatment of fistula in ano.

PubMed

Blumetti, J; Abcarian, A; Quinteros, F; Chaudhry, V; Prasad, L; Abcarian, H

2012-05-01

Fistula-in-ano is a common medical problem affecting thousands of patients annually. In the past, the options for treatment of fistula-in-ano were limited to fistulotomy and/or seton placement. Current treatment options also include muscle-sparing techniques such as a dermal island flap, endorectal advancement flap, fibrin sealent injection, anal fistula plug, and most recently ligation of the intersphincteric fistula tract (procedure). This study seeks to evaluate types and time trends for treatment of fistula-in-ano. A retrospective review from 1975 to 2009 was performed. Data were collected and sorted into 5-year increments for type and time trends of treatment. Fistulotomy and partial fistulotomy were grouped as cutting procedures. Seton placement, fibrin sealant, dermal flap, endorectal flap, and fistula plug were grouped as noncutting procedures. Statistical analysis was performed for each time period to determine trends. With institutional review board approval, the records of 2,267 fistula operations available for analysis were included. Most of the patients were men (74 vs. 26%). Cutting procedures comprised 66.6% (n = 1510) of all procedures. Noncutting procedures were utilized in 33.4% (n = 757), including Seton placement alone 370 (16.3%), fibrin sealant 168 (7.4%), dermal or endorectal flap 147 (6.5%), and fistula plug 72 (3.2%). The distribution of operations grouped in 5-year intervals is as follows: 1975-1979, 78 cutting and one noncutting; 1980-1984, 170 cutting and 10 noncutting; 1985-1989, 54 cutting and five noncutting; 1990-1994, 37 cutting and six noncutting; 1995-1999, 367 cutting and 167 noncutting; 2000-2004, 514 cutting and 283 noncutting; 2005-2009, 290 cutting and 285 noncutting. The percentage of cutting and noncutting procedures significantly differed over time, with cutting procedures decreasing and noncutting procedures increasing proportionally (χ(2) linear-by-linear association, p < 0.05). Fistula-in-ano remains a common complex disease process. Its treatment has evolved to include a variety of noncutting techniques in addition to traditional fistulotomy. With the advent of more sphincter-sparing techniques, the number of patients undergoing fistulotomy should continue to decrease over time. Surgeons should become familiar with various surgical techniques so the treatment can be tailored to the patient.

Phase synchronization based minimum spanning trees for analysis of financial time series with nonlinear correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, Srinivasan; Duvvuru, Arjun; Sultornsanee, Sivarit; Kamarthi, Sagar

2016-02-01

The cross correlation coefficient has been widely applied in financial time series analysis, in specific, for understanding chaotic behaviour in terms of stock price and index movements during crisis periods. To better understand time series correlation dynamics, the cross correlation matrices are represented as networks, in which a node stands for an individual time series and a link indicates cross correlation between a pair of nodes. These networks are converted into simpler trees using different schemes. In this context, Minimum Spanning Trees (MST) are the most favoured tree structures because of their ability to preserve all the nodes and thereby retain essential information imbued in the network. Although cross correlations underlying MSTs capture essential information, they do not faithfully capture dynamic behaviour embedded in the time series data of financial systems because cross correlation is a reliable measure only if the relationship between the time series is linear. To address the issue, this work investigates a new measure called phase synchronization (PS) for establishing correlations among different time series which relate to one another, linearly or nonlinearly. In this approach the strength of a link between a pair of time series (nodes) is determined by the level of phase synchronization between them. We compare the performance of phase synchronization based MST with cross correlation based MST along selected network measures across temporal frame that includes economically good and crisis periods. We observe agreement in the directionality of the results across these two methods. They show similar trends, upward or downward, when comparing selected network measures. Though both the methods give similar trends, the phase synchronization based MST is a more reliable representation of the dynamic behaviour of financial systems than the cross correlation based MST because of the former's ability to quantify nonlinear relationships among time series or relations among phase shifted time series.

Global Ocean Sedimentation Patterns: Plate Tectonic History Versus Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, A.; Reynolds, E.; Olson, P.; Hinnov, L. A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2014-12-01

Global sediment data (Whittaker et al., 2013) and carbonate content data (Archer, 1996) allows examination of ocean sedimentation evolution with respect to age of the underlying ocean crust (Müller et al., 2008). From these data, we construct time series of ocean sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins for the past 120 Ma. These time series are unique to each basin and reflect an integrated response to plate tectonics and climate change. The goal is to parameterize ocean sedimentation tied to crustal age for paleoclimate studies. For each basin, total sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate from 0.1 x 0.1 degree cells are binned according to basement crustal age; area-corrected moments (mean, variance, etc.) are calculated for each bin. Segmented linear fits identify trends in present-day carbonate deposition rates and changes in ocean sedimentation from 0 to 120 Ma. In the North and South Atlantic and Indian oceans, mean sediment thickness versus crustal age is well represented by three linear segments, with the slope of each segment increasing with increasing crustal age. However, the transition age between linear segments varies among the three basins. In contrast, mean sediment thickness in the North and South Pacific oceans are numerically smaller and well represented by two linear segments with slopes that decrease with increasing crustal age. These opposing trends are more consistent with the plate tectonic history of each basin being the controlling factor in sedimentation rates, rather than climate change. Unlike total sediment thickness, carbonate deposition rates decrease smoothly with crustal age in all basins, with the primary controls being ocean chemistry and water column depth.References: Archer, D., 1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 159-174.Müller, R.D., et al., 2008, Science, 319, 1357-1362.Whittaker, J., et al., 2013, Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20181

100 years of mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Australia: the role of tobacco consumption.

PubMed

Adair, T; Hoy, D; Dettrick, Z; Lopez, A D

2012-12-01

Global studies of the long-term association between tobacco consumption and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have relied upon descriptions of trends. To statistically analyse the relationship of tobacco consumption with data on mortality due to COPD over the past 100 years in Australia. Tobacco consumption was reconstructed back to 1887. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to analyse cumulative cohort and lagged time-specific smoking data and its relationship with COPD mortality. Age-standardised COPD mortality, although likely misclassified with other diseases, decreased for males and females from 1907 until the start of the Second World War in contrast to steadily rising tobacco consumption. Thereafter, COPD mortality rose sharply in line with trends in smoking, peaking in the early 1970s for males and over 20 years later for females, before falling again. Regression models revealed both cumulative and time-specific tobacco consumption to be strongly predictive of COPD mortality, with a time lag of 15 years for males and 20 years for females. Sharp falls in COPD mortality before the Second World War were unrelated to tobacco consumption. Smoking was the primary driver of post-War trends, and the success of anti-smoking campaigns has sharply reduced COPD mortality levels.

Trends in MD/PhD Graduates Entering Psychiatry: Assessing the Physician-Scientist Pipeline.

PubMed

Arbuckle, Melissa R; Luo, Sean X; Pincus, Harold Alan; Gordon, Joshua A; Chung, Joyce Y; Chavez, Mark; Oquendo, Maria A

2018-06-01

The goal of this study was to identify trends in MD/PhD graduates entering psychiatry, to compare these trends with other specialties, and to review strategies for enhancing the physician-scientist pipeline. Data on 226,588 medical students graduating from Liaison Committee on Medical Education accredited programs between 1999 and 2012 (6626 MD/PhDs) were used to evaluate the number, percentage, and proportion of MD/PhDs entering psychiatry in comparison with other specialties (neurology, neurosurgery, internal medicine, family medicine, and radiation oncology). Linear regression and multiple linear regression determined whether these values increased over time and varied by sex. Over 14 years, an average of 18 MD/PhDs (range 13-29) enrolled in psychiatry each year. The number of MD/PhDs going into psychiatry significantly increased, although these gains were modest (less than one additional MD/PhD per year). The proportion of students entering psychiatry who were MD/PhDs varied between 2.9 and 5.9 per 100 residents, with no significant change over time. There was also no change in the percentage of MD/PhDs entering psychiatry from among all MD/PhD graduates. The rate of increase in the number of MD/PhDs going into psychiatry did not differ significantly from other specialties except for family medicine, which is decreasing. The rate of MD/PhDs going into psychiatry was higher for women, suggesting closure of the sex gap in 17 years. Despite the increase in the number of MD/PhDs entering psychiatry, these numbers remain low. Expanding the cohort of physician-scientists dedicated to translational research in psychiatry will require a multipronged approach.

Fifty years of fat: news coverage of trends that predate obesity prevalence.

PubMed

Davis, Brennan; Wansink, Brian

2015-07-10

Obesity prevalence has risen in fifty years. While people generally expect media mentions of health risks like obesity prevalence to follow health risk trends, food consumption trends may precede obesity prevalence trends. Therefore, this research investigates whether media mentions of food predate obesity prevalence. Fifty years of non-advertising articles in the New York Times (and 17 years for the London Times) are coded for the mention of less healthy (5 salty and 5 sweet snacks) and healthy (5 fruits and 5 vegetables) food items by year and then associated with annual obesity prevalence in subsequent years. Time-series generalized linear models test whether food-related mentions predate or postdate obesity prevalence in each country. United States obesity prevalence is positively associated with New York Times mentions of sweet snacks (b = 55.2, CI = 42.4 to 68.1, p = .000) and negatively associated with mentions of fruits (b = -71.28, CI -91.5 to -51.1, p = .000) and vegetables (b = -13.6, CI = -17.5 to -9.6, p = .000). Similar results are found for the United Kingdom and The London Times. Importantly, the "obesity followed mentions" models are stronger than the "obesity preceded mentions" models. It may be possible to estimate a nation's future obesity prevalence (e.g., three years from now) based on how frequently national media mention sweet snacks (positively related) and vegetables or fruits (negatively related) today. This may provide public health officials and epidemiologists with new tools to more quickly assess the effectiveness of current obesity interventions based on what is mentioned in the media today.

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

DOE PAGES

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; ...

2015-06-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO₂ levels have decreased by 30–40% in the last decade. We quantify NO₂ trends (2005–2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO₂ vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite.We demonstrate that the current OMI NO₂ algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence ofmore » trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO₂ concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NO x emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO₂ standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005-2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO₂ reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO₂ VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model-simulated trends in VCDs strongly correlate with those estimated from surface concentrations (r = 0.83, N = 355). We then explore the observed correspondence of trends estimated from OMI and AQS data. We find a significant, but slightly weaker, correspondence (i.e., r = 0.68, N = 208) than predicted by the model and discuss some of the important factors affecting the relationship, including known problems (e.g., NO z interferents) associated with the AQS data. This significant correspondence gives confidence in trend and surface concentration estimates from OMI VCDs for locations, such as the majority of the U.S. and globe, that are not covered by surface monitoring networks. Using our improved trend model and our enhanced OMI data product, we find that both OMI and AQS data show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 38% for each over the U.S. The annual reduction rates inferred from OMI and AQS measurements are larger (–4.8 ± 1.9%/yr, –3.7 ± 1.5%/yr) from 2005 to 2008 than 2010 to 2013 (–1.2 ± 1.2%/yr, –2.1 ± 1.4%/yr). We quantify NO₂ trends for major U.S. cities and power plants; the latter suggest larger negative trend (–4.0 ± 1.5%/yr) between 2005 and 2008 and smaller or insignificant changes (–0.5 ± 1.2%/yr) during 2010-2013.« less

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO₂ levels have decreased by 30–40% in the last decade. We quantify NO₂ trends (2005–2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO₂ vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite.We demonstrate that the current OMI NO₂ algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence ofmore » trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO₂ concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NO x emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO₂ standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005-2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO₂ reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO₂ VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model-simulated trends in VCDs strongly correlate with those estimated from surface concentrations (r = 0.83, N = 355). We then explore the observed correspondence of trends estimated from OMI and AQS data. We find a significant, but slightly weaker, correspondence (i.e., r = 0.68, N = 208) than predicted by the model and discuss some of the important factors affecting the relationship, including known problems (e.g., NO z interferents) associated with the AQS data. This significant correspondence gives confidence in trend and surface concentration estimates from OMI VCDs for locations, such as the majority of the U.S. and globe, that are not covered by surface monitoring networks. Using our improved trend model and our enhanced OMI data product, we find that both OMI and AQS data show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 38% for each over the U.S. The annual reduction rates inferred from OMI and AQS measurements are larger (–4.8 ± 1.9%/yr, –3.7 ± 1.5%/yr) from 2005 to 2008 than 2010 to 2013 (–1.2 ± 1.2%/yr, –2.1 ± 1.4%/yr). We quantify NO₂ trends for major U.S. cities and power plants; the latter suggest larger negative trend (–4.0 ± 1.5%/yr) between 2005 and 2008 and smaller or insignificant changes (–0.5 ± 1.2%/yr) during 2010-2013.« less

The conditional resampling model STARS: weaknesses of the modeling concept and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menz, Christoph

2016-04-01

The Statistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) is based on a modeling concept of Werner and Gerstengarbe (1997). The model uses a conditional resampling technique to create a simulation time series from daily observations. Unlike other time series generators (such as stochastic weather generators) STARS only needs a linear regression specification of a single variable as the target condition for the resampling. Since its first implementation the algorithm was further extended in order to allow for a spatially distributed trend signal, to preserve the seasonal cycle and the autocorrelation of the observation time series (Orlovsky, 2007; Orlovsky et al., 2008). This evolved version was successfully used in several climate impact studies. However a detaild evaluation of the simulations revealed two fundamental weaknesses of the utilized resampling technique. 1. The restriction of the resampling condition on a single individual variable can lead to a misinterpretation of the change signal of other variables when the model is applied to a mulvariate time series. (F. Wechsung and M. Wechsung, 2014). As one example, the short-term correlations between precipitation and temperature (cooling of the near-surface air layer after a rainfall event) can be misinterpreted as a climatic change signal in the simulation series. 2. The model restricts the linear regression specification to the annual mean time series, refusing the specification of seasonal varying trends. To overcome these fundamental weaknesses a redevelopment of the whole algorithm was done. The poster discusses the main weaknesses of the earlier model implementation and the methods applied to overcome these in the new version. Based on the new model idealized simulations were conducted to illustrate the enhancement.

[The relationship between unemployment rates and lost work time due to sickness absence in an economic recession].

PubMed

López López, J C; Ballesteros Polo, M; Sampere Valero, M; Sacristán Nieto, R; Alguacil García, S; Ruiz Julian, A; Santos Avila, E; García Rubia, S; López Costa, B; Martínez Martínez, J M

Different countries have shown an inverse relationship between unemployment rates (UR) and indicators of sickness absence during periods of economic recession. To evaluate the relationship between indicators of sickness absence and unemployment in Spain during 2009-2015. We obtained incidence and absenteeism rates of non-work related sickness absence (NWSA) from Social Security data, and UR from the National Institute of Statistics. The relationship between indicators of NWSA and UR in the period 2009 to 2015 was graphically described using time trend plots. Scatter plots of NWSA indicators were also made against UR. Finally, we fitted linear regression models. Incidence (IR) and absenteeism rates (AR) of NWSA showed downward trends in 2009-2013 (IR 2009=28.07%, IR 2013=20.41%; AR 2009=2.53% and AR 2013=1.86%), changing to an upward trend up to 2015 (IR 2015=22.52%, AR 2015=2.12%). Unemployment rates trended upward in 2009-2013 (UR 2009=17.86%, UR 2013=26.10%), and then changed to a downward trend through 2015 (UR 2015=22.06%). There was an inverse relationship between UR and NWSA indicators. As in previous international studies, we found an inverse relationship between unemployment rates and indicators of sickness absence in Spain. More detailed studies are needed to evaluate explanatory hypotheses, such as those associated with the effects of discipline, selection and/or changes in the workforce. Copyright belongs to the Societat Catalana de Salut Laboral.

Trends in US movie tobacco portrayal since 1950: a historical analysis.

PubMed

Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Dan

2010-06-01

Portrayal of tobacco use in films has been causally linked to youth smoking initiation. However, findings regarding trends in portrayal in US films since 1950 are inconsistent, potentially due to differences in sampling densities, intercoder reliabilities and time periods covered. The present study was designed to overcome these inconsistencies with a common sampling frame and methodology. A half sample of the 30 top-grossing US films per year from 1950 to 2006 (N=855) was coded in 5-min segments for total tobacco-related content and main character tobacco use. Film tobacco trends were identified using linear regression and compared to national per capita cigarette consumption and historically significant tobacco control events. Tobacco content declined considerably since 1950. Total tobacco-related content peaked around 1961, while the decline in portrayal of main character use was already underway in 1950. Cigarette consumption peaked around 1966 with a trend that closely paralleled total tobacco content and that coincided with major tobacco control events. This study, which had high reliability, dense sampling and covered a long time period, indicates that tobacco content has declined in top-ranked US movies since 1950 with a trend in total tobacco content that closely paralleled the drop in per capita cigarette consumption and the increase in significant tobacco control efforts. Despite the inability to draw causal conclusions, tobacco portrayal in films may serve as barometer of societal support for the habit and thus efforts should continue to limit exposure to such content.

A comparison of trends in operative approach and postoperative outcomes for colorectal cancer surgery.

PubMed

Addae, Jamin K; Gani, Faiz; Fang, Sandy Y; Wick, Elizabeth C; Althumairi, Azah A; Efron, Jonathan E; Canner, Joseph K; Euhus, David M; Schneider, Eric B

2017-02-01

Data-assessing trends and perioperative outcomes relative to surgical approach for colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery are lacking. We report national trends of CRC surgery and compare postoperative outcomes by surgical approach. A total of 261,886 patients undergoing surgery for CRC were identified using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2009 to 2012. Trends in surgical approach were assessed using the Cochrane-Armitage test of trends. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to compare length of stay (LOS), postoperative complications, and cost by surgical approach. At the time of surgery, 57.5% underwent an open procedure, whereas 42.4% underwent either a laparoscopic (39.9%) or robotic (2.5%) colorectal surgery. The use of minimally invasive surgery increased over time (2009 versus 2012: 37.3% versus 46.8%; P < 0.001). Postoperative morbidity was 15.9% and was higher after open surgery (open versus laparoscopic versus robotic: 18.4% versus 12.4% versus 13.3%; P < 0.001). Patients who underwent a minimally invasive surgery had shorter LOS (laparoscopic: OR, 0.55, 95% CI, 0.52-0.58; robotic: OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.49-0.69; both P < 0.001). Robotic surgery was consistently associated with the highest mean costs followed by laparoscopic and open surgery (P < 0.001). Patients undergoing minimally invasive colorectal surgery had a lower postoperative morbidity and shorter LOS compared with patients undergoing open colorectal surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Haemoglobin recovery among HIV-1 infected patients on zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy and other regimens in north-central Nigeria.

PubMed

Parrish, Deidra D; Blevins, Meridith; Megazzini, Karen M; Shepherd, Bryan E; Mohammed, Mukhtar Y; Wester, C William; Vermund, Sten H; Aliyu, Muktar H

2014-04-01

We conducted a study to assess trends in haemoglobin recovery among HIV-infected patients initiated on zidovudine-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) stratified by baseline haemoglobin level. Haemoglobin data from non-pregnant adult patients initiating cART in rural north-central Nigeria between June 2009 and May 2011 were analysed using a linear mixed effects model to assess the interaction between time, zidovudine-containing regimen and baseline haemoglobin level on the outcome of subsequent haemoglobin level. Best-fit curves were created for baseline haemoglobin in the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles. We included 313 patients with 736 measures of haemoglobin in the analysis (239 on zidovudine and 74 on non-zidovudine-containing regimens). Median haemoglobin increased over time in both groups, with differences in haemoglobin response over time related to baseline haemoglobin levels and zidovudine use (p = 0.003). The groups of patients on zidovudine at the 10th and 90th percentiles had downward sloping curves while all other groups had upward trending haemoglobin levels. Although haemoglobin levels increased overall for patients on zidovudine-containing regimens, for those in the 10th and 90th percentiles haemoglobin levels trended downward over time. These results have implications for decisions regarding when to initiate, switch from or avoid the use of zidovudine.

Using Time Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a PICU.

PubMed

Kennedy, Curtis E; Aoki, Noriaki; Mariscalco, Michele; Turley, James P

2015-11-01

To build and test cardiac arrest prediction models in a PICU, using time series analysis as input, and to measure changes in prediction accuracy attributable to different classes of time series data. Retrospective cohort study. Thirty-one bed academic PICU that provides care for medical and general surgical (not congenital heart surgery) patients. Patients experiencing a cardiac arrest in the PICU and requiring external cardiac massage for at least 2 minutes. None. One hundred three cases of cardiac arrest and 109 control cases were used to prepare a baseline dataset that consisted of 1,025 variables in four data classes: multivariate, raw time series, clinical calculations, and time series trend analysis. We trained 20 arrest prediction models using a matrix of five feature sets (combinations of data classes) with four modeling algorithms: linear regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. The reference model (multivariate data with regression algorithm) had an accuracy of 78% and 87% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The best model (multivariate + trend analysis data with support vector machine algorithm) had an accuracy of 94% and 98% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cardiac arrest predictions based on a traditional model built with multivariate data and a regression algorithm misclassified cases 3.7 times more frequently than predictions that included time series trend analysis and built with a support vector machine algorithm. Although the final model lacks the specificity necessary for clinical application, we have demonstrated how information from time series data can be used to increase the accuracy of clinical prediction models.

The Evolution of El Nino-Precipitation Relationships from Satellites and Gauges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.

Trends in Daily Cannabis Use Among Cigarette Smokers: United States, 2002-2014.

PubMed

Goodwin, Renee D; Pacek, Lauren R; Copeland, Jan; Moeller, Scott J; Dierker, Lisa; Weinberger, Andrea; Gbedemah, Misato; Zvolensky, Michael J; Wall, Melanie M; Hasin, Deborah S

2018-01-01

To estimate changes in the prevalence of daily cannabis use among current, former, and never cigarette smokers from 2002 to 2014 in the United States. The National Survey on Drug Use and Health is a nationally representative cross-sectional study conducted annually among persons aged 12 years and older in the United States. Daily cannabis use occurs nearly exclusively among nondaily and daily cigarette smokers compared with former and never smokers (8.03%, 9.01%, 2.79%, 1.05%, respectively). Daily cannabis use increased over the past decade among both nondaily (8.03% [2014] vs 2.85% [2002]; linear trend P < .001) and daily smokers (9.01% [2014]; 4.92% [2002]; linear trend P < .001). Daily cannabis use increased most rapidly among former cigarette smokers (2.79% [2014] vs 0.98% [2002]; linear trend P < .001). Daily cannabis use occurs predominantly among cigarette smokers in the United States. Daily cannabis use increased among current, former, and never smokers over the past decade, with particularly rapid increases among youth and female cigarette smokers. Future research is needed to monitor the observed increase in daily cannabis use, especially among youths and adults who smoke cigarettes.

Race/ethnicity and marijuana use in the United States: Diminishing differences in the prevalence of use, 2006-2015.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine M; Wall, Melanie; Feng, Tianshu; Cerdá, Magdalena; Hasin, Deborah S

2017-10-01

Marijuana use has been decreasing in the past several years among adolescents, though variation in the extent and rate of decrease across racial/ethnic groups is inadequately understood. The present study utilized nationally-representative data in Monitoring the Future from 2006 to 2015 to examine trends over time in past 30-day marijuana use. We examine whether differences in trends over time by race and ethnicity also differ by individual-level, school-level, and state-level factors. Sample included 131,351 8th grade students, 137,249 10th grade students, and 123,293 12th grade students; multi-level models and difference-in-differences tests were used. In 10th grade, Black students had a positive linear increase in marijuana use (est=0.04, SE=0.01, p<0.001), and the magnitude of the increase was significantly greater than among non-Hispanic White students (est=0.38, SE=0.009, p<0.001). The increase trend among Black students was greater among those in large class sizes. In 12th grade, all racial ethnic groups except non-Hispanic Whites demonstrated a linear increase in prevalence across time. The magnitude of the increase among Hispanic students was greater among those in urban areas and large class sizes. The magnitude of the increase among Black students was greater in states with a medical marijuana law before 2006 (est=0.06, SE=0.03, p=0.02), among other state-level covariates. Together these results suggest that the next stage of public health approaches to reducing the harms associated with adolescent drug use should attend to shifting demographic patterns of use among adolescents and ensure that services and programmatic approaches to adolescent prevention are applied equitably. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Latitudinal dependence of variations in stratospheric NO2 content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2008-06-01

Diurnal and annual variations in the NO2 total content (TC), the effect of its decrease owing to the products of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, its variations during an 11-year cycle of solar activity, and its linear trends are analyzed on the basis of data obtained from the ground-based spectrometric measurements of the NO2 TC in stratospheric vertical columns over the stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change. Latitudinal dependence of the indicated variations and trends is revealed. The annual estimates of the linear trends of the NO2 TC are found to be mostly positive for the middle and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere and negative for the middle and low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum values of the positive and negative trends amount to ˜10% per ten years. In the high and polar latitudes of both hemispheres, the annual trend estimates are statistically insignificant. Seasonal estimates of the trends may differ from their annual estimates. The trends and solar-activity effect in the NO2 TC, which were estimated by using the two-dimensional model SOCRATES, as well as the analytical estimates of a zonal mean trend of the NO2 TC, on the whole, significantly differ from the estimates obtained from the measurements.

Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage.

PubMed

Klapwijk, Maartje J; Csóka, György; Hirka, Anikó; Björkman, Christer

2013-10-01

Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961-2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.

Assessing non-linear variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and their impacts on phenology in the Midwest of Jilin Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Wang, Yongfang; Alu, Si; Wang, Rui; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si

2018-05-01

In the past two decades, the regional climate in China has undergone significant change, resulting in crop yield reduction and complete failure. The goal of this study is to detect the variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and assess their impact on phenology. The daily meteorological data in the Midwest of Jilin Province during 1960-2014 were used in the study. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method was adopted to analyze the non-linear trend and fluctuation in temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivity of the length of the maize growth period to temperature and precipitation was analyzed by the wavelet cross-transformation method. The results show that the trends of temperature and precipitation change are non-linear for different growth periods of maize, and the average temperature in the sowing-jointing stage was different from that in the other growth stages, showing a slight decrease trend, while the variation amplitude of maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature. This indicates that the temperature difference between day and night shows a gradually decreasing trend. Precipitation in the growth period also showed a decreasing non-linear trend, while the inter-annual variability with period of quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year dominated the variation of temperature and precipitation. The whole growth period was shortened by 10.7 days, and the sowing date was advanced by approximately 11 days. We also found that there was a significant resonance period among temperature, precipitation, and phenology. Overall, a negative correlation between phenology and temperature is evident, while a positive correlation with precipitation is exhibited. The results illustrate that the climate suitability for maize has reduced over the past decades.

A Comprehensive Fifty-One Jurisdiction Review of Statutes Mandating and Encouraging the Teaching of History in K-12 Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutting, A. Edward

2012-01-01

This is a linear review of the education statutes of each state for the purpose of identifying those statutes which require the state's history to be taught in its K-12 schools, with further analysis for trends and outliers. The intent is to first serve as a benchmark as to where both each state and the nation as a whole is at this point in time.…

Intra-operative Cerenkov Imaging for Guiding Breast Cancer Surgery and Assessing Tumor Margins

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

from 10 million to 100 billion, the simulation time followed a linear trend [Fig. 6( a ), r2 = 0.9998]. Each in - cremental one million...field. Cerenkov luminescence was detected up to a depth of 5 mm ( in tissue-mimicking material, given 100 uCi of activity ). We found that one of the ...distributed calculation of the intersection of a set of rays with a triangular mesh is challenging on the GPU. Monte

Long-term longitudinal changes in baseline PSA distribution and estimated prevalence of prostate cancer in male Japanese participants of population-based PSA screening.

PubMed

Oki, Ryo; Ito, Kazuto; Suzuki, Rie; Fujizuka, Yuji; Arai, Seiji; Miyazawa, Yoshiyuki; Sekine, Yoshitaka; Koike, Hidekazu; Matsui, Hiroshi; Shibata, Yasuhiro; Suzuki, Kazuhiro

2018-04-26

Japan has experienced a drastic increase in the incidence of prostate cancer (PC). To assess changes in the risk for PC, we investigated baseline prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels in first-time screened men, across a 25-year period. In total, 72,654 men, aged 50-79, underwent first-time PSA screening in Gunma prefecture between 1992 and 2016. Changes in the distribution of PSA levels were investigated, including the percentage of men with a PSA above cut-off values and linear regression analyses comparing log 10 PSA with age. The 'ultimate incidence' of PC and clinically significant PC (CSPC) were estimated using the PC risk calculator. Changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (AIR) during this period were analyzed. The calculated coefficients of linear regression for age versus log 10 PSA fluctuated during the 25-year period, but no trend was observed. In addition, the percentage of men with a PSA above cut-off values varied in each 5-year period, with no specific trend. The 'risk calculator (RC)-based AIR' of PC and CSPC were stable between 1992 and 2016. Therefore, the baseline risk for developing PC has remained unchanged in the past 25 years, in Japan. The drastic increase in the incidence of PC, beginning around 2000, may be primarily due to increased PSA screening in the country. © 2018 UICC.

Changing Trends in the Clinical Presentation and Management of Complete Hydatidiform Mole Among Brazilian Women.

PubMed

Braga, Antonio; Moraes, Valéria; Maestá, Izildinha; Amim Júnior, Joffre; Rezende-Filho, Jorge de; Elias, Kevin; Berkowitz, Ross

2016-06-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate potential changes in the clinical, diagnostic, and therapeutic parameters of complete hydatidiform mole in the last 25 years in Brazil. A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving the analysis of 2163 medical records of patients diagnosed with complete hydatidiform mole who received treatment at the Rio de Janeiro Reference Center for Gestational Trophoblastic Disease between January 1988 and December 2012. For the statistical analysis of the natural history of the patients with complete molar pregnancies, time series were evaluated using the Cox-Stuart test and adjusted by linear regression models. A downward linear temporal trend was observed for gestational age of complete hydatidiform mole at diagnosis, which is also reflected in the reduced occurrence of vaginal bleeding, hyperemesis and pre-eclampsia. We also observed an increase in the use of uterine vacuum aspiration to treat molar pregnancy. Although the duration of postmolar follow-up was found to decline, this was not accompanied by any alteration in the time to remission of the disease or its progression to gestational trophoblastic neoplasia. Early diagnosis of complete hydatidiform mole has altered the natural history of molar pregnancy, especially with a reduction in classical clinical symptoms. However, early diagnosis has not resulted in a reduction in the development of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia, a dilemma that still challenges professionals working with gestational trophoblastic disease.

Improving Photometry and Stellar Signal Preservation with Pixel-Level Systematic Error Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolodzijczak, Jeffrey J.; Smith, Jeffrey C.; Jenkins, Jon M.

2013-01-01

The Kepler Mission has demonstrated that excellent stellar photometric performance can be achieved using apertures constructed from optimally selected CCD pixels. The clever methods used to correct for systematic errors, while very successful, still have some limitations in their ability to extract long-term trends in stellar flux. They also leave poorly correlated bias sources, such as drifting moiré pattern, uncorrected. We will illustrate several approaches where applying systematic error correction algorithms to the pixel time series, rather than the co-added raw flux time series, provide significant advantages. Examples include, spatially localized determination of time varying moiré pattern biases, greater sensitivity to radiation-induced pixel sensitivity drops (SPSDs), improved precision of co-trending basis vectors (CBV), and a means of distinguishing the stellar variability from co-trending terms even when they are correlated. For the last item, the approach enables physical interpretation of appropriately scaled coefficients derived in the fit of pixel time series to the CBV as linear combinations of various spatial derivatives of the pixel response function (PRF). We demonstrate that the residuals of a fit of soderived pixel coefficients to various PRF-related components can be deterministically interpreted in terms of physically meaningful quantities, such as the component of the stellar flux time series which is correlated with the CBV, as well as, relative pixel gain, proper motion and parallax. The approach also enables us to parameterize and assess the limiting factors in the uncertainties in these quantities.

Trends in the treatment of chronic kidney disease-associated anaemia in a cohort of haemodialysis patients: the Irish experience.

PubMed

Gardiner, Roisin; Roshan, Davood; Brennan, Ann; Connolly, Denise; Murray, Susan; Reddan, Donal

2018-04-27

Anaemia among haemodialysis patients is treated with iron and erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs). ESAs reduce requirements for blood transfusions but are also expensive and overzealous use may be associated with adverse outcomes. Recent international trends have been characterised by reduced ESA doses and a greater reliance on intravenous (IV) iron. We determined trends in prescribing patterns of ESAs and IV iron for the treatment of anaemia in two representative Irish dialysis centres and correlated with current guidelines and international trends. Patient data was accessed from the Kidney Disease Clinical Patient Management System (KDCPMS) for the period 2012 to 2014. We generated reports on ESA and iron doses, lab data (haemoglobin (Hb), transferrin saturation (TSAT) and ferritin) and patient population characteristics. We mapped the trends in ESA, iron dosing and lab parameters achieved. A linear mixed model determined the significance of these trends over time. ESA dosing became lower in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2014. Dosing of iron increased throughout but a large increase was seen in the third and fourth quarters of 2014. Ferritin levels decreased and TSAT and haemoglobin levels increased. Changes in iron dosing were significant with p value of < 0.05. Our findings are consistent with recent global trends toward increasing iron use. Such trends may have economic implications given the high cost of ESAs and the relative affordability of iron. In addition, the potential harm of excessive iron dosing may need to be considered.

Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

PubMed

Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

2017-12-01

Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New uses of shadow enhancement. [interpretation of geologic structures from photographic or scanner imagery of Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, K. (Principal Investigator); Sawatzky, D. L.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Shadow enhancement of topographic linears in photographic or scanner images is a valuable tool for interpretation of geologic structures. Whether linears will be enhanced or subdued depends on sun angle and azimuth. The relationship of the sun's attitude to topographic slopes determines which trends are available for interpretation in existing imagery, and it can be used to select the time of day, surface properties, and film and filter characteristics in planning aircraft flights or satellite orbital passes. The technique of selective shadow enhancement can be applied to all photographic or imaging experiments, but its best for snow-covered scenes, side-looking radar images, and painted relief models.

Identification of nitrate long term trends in Loire-Brittany river district (France) in connection with hydrogeological contexts, agricultural practices and water table level variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, B.; Baran, N.; Bourgine, B.; Ratheau, D.

2009-04-01

The European Union (EU) has adopted directives requiring that Member States take measures to reach a "good" chemical status of water resources by the year 2015 (Water Framework Directive: WFD). Alongside, the Nitrates Directives (91/676/EEC) aims at controlling nitrogen pollution and requires Member States to identify groundwaters that contain more than 50 mg NO3 L-1 or could exceed this limit if preventive measures are not taken. In order to achieve these environmental objectives in the Loire-Brittany river basin, or to justify the non achievement of these objectives, a large dataset of nitrate concentrations (117.056 raw data distributed on 7.341 time-series) and water table level time-series (1.371.655 data distributed on 511 piezometers) is analysed from 1945 to 2007. The 156.700 sq km Loire-Brittany river basin shows various hydrogeological contexts, ranging from sedimentary aquifers to basement ones, with a few volcanic-rock aquifers. The knowledge of the evolution of agricultural practices is important in such a study and, even if this information is not locally available, agricultural practices have globally changed since the 1991 Nitrates Directives. The detailed dataset available for the Loire-Brittany basin aquifers is used to evaluate tools and to propose efficient methodologies for identifying and quantifying past and current trends in nitrate concentrations. Therefore, the challenge of this study is to propose a global and integrated approach which allows nitrate trend identifications for the whole Loire-Brittany river basin. The temporal piezometric behaviour of each aquifer is defined using geostatistical analyse of water table level time-series. This method requires the calculation of an experimental temporal variogram that can be fitted with a theoretical model valid for a large time range. Identification of contrasted behaviours (short term, annual or pluriannual water table fluctuations) allows a systematic classification of the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers. The nitrate dataset shows too many irregularities to employ traditional time-series approaches such as linear regression trend tests. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test is a robust statistical trend detection test that does not require verification of the normality of the dataset (Aguilar et al, 2007). Moreover, this test seems appropriate since it is less sensitive to missing or outlier data than a simple linear regression test. As the MK test can only detect monotonic trends, and as already done by Stuart et al., (2007) and Broers and Van der Grift (2004), the trend analyses are decennially partitioned in order to identify possible trend reversals for the studied period for each observation point. The trend identification is then spatialized by the use of the Kendall Regional (KR) test on homogenous zones characterized by their geology, their agricultural practices and their piezometric behaviour. The KR test, previously used by Frans and Helsel (2005) in the Columbia Basin Ground Water context, is quite similar to the MK test and consists of the creation of virtual regional boreholes using networks of boreholes located in the homogenous zones. This test allows the identification of regional monotonic trends, even in the zones where nitrate time-series are too small to detect significant trend per observation point. The MK test results show significant upward trends in nitrate concentrations in the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers when the test is computed on the 1945-2007 period. However, the decennial MK test shows different behaviours at smaller time scale. Some zones are characterized by a constant and significant increase in nitrate concentrations since 1945 (North-East of Brittany, North of Beauce) whereas others show a trend reversal (South of Brittany, Callovo-Oxfordian marls between Le Mans and Alençon, under covered Jurassic limestone around Poitiers). Furthermore, some rare zones show an increase in nitrate concentrations that follow a significant downward trend period (Orléans). In the nineties, a transition period may have occurred with a higher proportion of upward than downward trends (82 % against 7 % respectively) for the 1980-1990 period and a lower proportion of upward than downward trends for the 2000-2007 period (37 % against 51 % respectively). Combined with the analyse of the current groundwater nitrate concentrations, the KR test reveals zones where trends in nitrate concentrations have been significantly raising with high nitrate current mean values (> 50 mg NO3 L-1). On the other hand, some zones show a significant regional downward trend since 1995 and low current nitrate concentrations (< 20 mg NO3 L-1). Causes of trend reversals cannot be determined by the MK and KR statistical trend analyses, but the cross analyse of nitrate and water table level time-series gives a hint of a positive correlation between these two variables. Evolution of nitrate concentrations in superficial aquifers may thus depend on a combined effect of changes in both agricultural practices and evolution of water table levels linked with climatic context. References Aguilar J.B., Orban P., Dassargues A., Brouyère S., (2007) - Identification of groundwater quality trends in a chalk aquifer threatened by intensive agriculture in Belgium. Hydrogeology journal 15: 1615-1627. Broers H.P., van der Grift B., (2004) - Regional monitoring of temporal changes in groundwater quality. Journal of hydrology 296: 192-220. Frans L.M., Helsel D.R. (2005) - Evaluating regional trends in ground water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin Ground Water management Area, Washington. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5078, 7p. Stuart M.E., Chilton P.J., Kiniiburgh D.G., Cooper D.M., (2007) - Screening for long-term trends in groundwater nitrate monitoring data. Quaterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 40: 361-376. Funding The study was funded by the Loire-Brittany River Basin Agency and from proper BRGM funds.

Constructing an Efficient Self-Tuning Aircraft Engine Model for Control and Health Management Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armstrong, Jeffrey B.; Simon, Donald L.

2012-01-01

Self-tuning aircraft engine models can be applied for control and health management applications. The self-tuning feature of these models minimizes the mismatch between any given engine and the underlying engineering model describing an engine family. This paper provides details of the construction of a self-tuning engine model centered on a piecewise linear Kalman filter design. Starting from a nonlinear transient aerothermal model, a piecewise linear representation is first extracted. The linearization procedure creates a database of trim vectors and state-space matrices that are subsequently scheduled for interpolation based on engine operating point. A series of steady-state Kalman gains can next be constructed from a reduced-order form of the piecewise linear model. Reduction of the piecewise linear model to an observable dimension with respect to available sensed engine measurements can be achieved using either a subset or an optimal linear combination of "health" parameters, which describe engine performance. The resulting piecewise linear Kalman filter is then implemented for faster-than-real-time processing of sensed engine measurements, generating outputs appropriate for trending engine performance, estimating both measured and unmeasured parameters for control purposes, and performing on-board gas-path fault diagnostics. Computational efficiency is achieved by designing multidimensional interpolation algorithms that exploit the shared scheduling of multiple trim vectors and system matrices. An example application illustrates the accuracy of a self-tuning piecewise linear Kalman filter model when applied to a nonlinear turbofan engine simulation. Additional discussions focus on the issue of transient response accuracy and the advantages of a piecewise linear Kalman filter in the context of validation and verification. The techniques described provide a framework for constructing efficient self-tuning aircraft engine models from complex nonlinear simulations.Self-tuning aircraft engine models can be applied for control and health management applications. The self-tuning feature of these models minimizes the mismatch between any given engine and the underlying engineering model describing an engine family. This paper provides details of the construction of a self-tuning engine model centered on a piecewise linear Kalman filter design. Starting from a nonlinear transient aerothermal model, a piecewise linear representation is first extracted. The linearization procedure creates a database of trim vectors and state-space matrices that are subsequently scheduled for interpolation based on engine operating point. A series of steady-state Kalman gains can next be constructed from a reduced-order form of the piecewise linear model. Reduction of the piecewise linear model to an observable dimension with respect to available sensed engine measurements can be achieved using either a subset or an optimal linear combination of "health" parameters, which describe engine performance. The resulting piecewise linear Kalman filter is then implemented for faster-than-real-time processing of sensed engine measurements, generating outputs appropriate for trending engine performance, estimating both measured and unmeasured parameters for control purposes, and performing on-board gas-path fault diagnostics. Computational efficiency is achieved by designing multidimensional interpolation algorithms that exploit the shared scheduling of multiple trim vectors and system matrices. An example application illustrates the accuracy of a self-tuning piecewise linear Kalman filter model when applied to a nonlinear turbofan engine simulation. Additional discussions focus on the issue of transient response accuracy and the advantages of a piecewise linear Kalman filter in the context of validation and verification. The techniques described provide a framework for constructing efficient self-tuning aircraft engine models from complex nonlinear simulatns.

Variations in snow cover seasonality across the Kyrgyz Republic from 2000 to 2016 revealed through MODIS Terra and Aqua snow products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaszewska, M. A.; Henebry, G. M.

2017-12-01

The vertical transhumance practiced by herders in the highlands of Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable to environmental change. Herd movements and pasture conditions are both affected by spatial and temporal variations in snow cover and the timing of snowmelt. Early growing season soil moisture conditions affect the phenology and growth of vegetation, especially in the high elevation pastures used for summer forage. To evaluate snow seasonality, we examined three snow cover variables—the first day of snow (FDoS), the last day of snow (LDoS), and the duration of snow cover (DoSC) over 17 years based on 8-day snow product from MODIS Terra and Aqua (MOD/MYD10A2) across the Kyrgyz Republic (KYR). To track the "snow season" efficiently in the presence of snow-capped peaks, we start each snow season at day of year (DOY) 169, approximately the summer solstice, and extend to DOY 168 of the following year. To track the interannual variation of these variables, we applied two nonparametric statistics: the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Theil-Sen linear trend estimator. Our preliminary results focusing on four rayons in two oblasts indicate both large swaths of positive and negative significant trends over the different regions of the country. Positive trends in FDoS, meaning later snow arrival, were detected in parts of central KYR. Negative trends in FDoS meaning earlier arrival were detected at lower elevations in southwestern KYR. Earlier snowmelt (negative trend in LDoS) in eastern KYR resulted in a shorter snow season (negative trend in DoSC); in contrast, later snowmelt in southwestern KYR (positive trend in LDoS) resulted in a longer period of snow cover (positive trend of DoSC). We extend the analysis to the entire country and explore the influence of terrain attribites (elevation, slope, and aspect) and MODIS IGBP land cover type (MCD12Q1) on trends in snow cover seasonality. Additionally, we ran the trend tests for the Terra and Aqua snow products separately to evaluate the effect of overpass time on snow cover retrieval.

Is the time-dependent behaviour of the aortic valve intrinsically quasi-linear?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anssari-Benam, Afshin

2014-05-01

The widely popular quasi-linear viscoelasticity (QLV) theory has been employed extensively in the literature for characterising the time-dependent behaviour of many biological tissues, including the aortic valve (AV). However, in contrast to other tissues, application of QLV to AV data has been met with varying success, with studies reporting discrepancies in the values of the associated quantified parameters for data collected from different timescales in experiments. Furthermore, some studies investigating the stress-relaxation phenomenon in valvular tissues have suggested discrete relaxation spectra, as an alternative to the continuous spectrum proposed by the QLV. These indications put forward a more fundamental question: Is the time-dependent behaviour of the aortic valve intrinsically quasi-linear? In other words, can the inherent characteristics of the tissue that govern its biomechanical behaviour facilitate a quasi-linear time-dependent behaviour? This paper attempts to address these questions by presenting a mathematical analysis to derive the expressions for the stress-relaxation G( t) and creep J( t) functions for the AV tissue within the QLV theory. The principal inherent characteristic of the tissue is incorporated into the QLV formulation in the form of the well-established gradual fibre recruitment model, and the corresponding expressions for G( t) and J( t) are derived. The outcomes indicate that the resulting stress-relaxation and creep functions do not appear to voluntarily follow the observed experimental trends reported in previous studies. These results highlight that the time-dependent behaviour of the AV may not be quasi-linear, and more suitable theoretical criteria and models may be required to explain the phenomenon based on tissue's microstructure, and for more accurate estimation of the associated material parameters. In general, these results may further be applicable to other planar soft tissues of the same class, i.e. with the same representation for fibre recruitment mechanism and discrete time-dependent spectra.

Total ozone trends and variability during 1979-2012 from merged data sets of various satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chehade, W.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2014-07-01

The study presents a long-term statistical trend analysis of total ozone data sets obtained from various satellites. A multi-variate linear regression was applied to annual mean zonal mean data using various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables that represent dynamical and chemical processes which modify global ozone distributions in a changing climate. The study investigated the magnitude and zonal distribution of the different atmospheric chemical and dynamical factors contributing to long-term total ozone changes. The regression model included the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the 11-year solar cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), stratospheric aerosol loading describing the effects from major volcanic eruptions, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic and Antarctic oscillation (AO/AAO), and accumulated eddy heat flux (EHF), the latter representing changes due to the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The total ozone column data set used here comprises the Solar Backscater Ultraviolet SBUV/SBUV-2 merged ozone data set (MOD) V8.6, the merged data set of the Solar Backscaterr Ultraviolet, the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument SBUV/TOMS/OMI (1979-2012) MOD V8.0 and the merged data set of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, the Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartograpHY and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 (GSG) (1995-2012). The trend analysis was performed for twenty-six 5° wide latitude bands from 65° S to 65° N, and the analysis explained most of the ozone variability to within 70 to 90%. The results show that QBO dominates the ozone variability in the tropics (±7 DU) while at higher latitudes, the dynamical indices, AO/AAO and eddy heat flux, have substantial influence on total ozone variations by up to ±10 DU. The contribution from volcanic aerosols is only prominent during the major eruption periods (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo), and together with the ENSO signal, is more evident in the Northern Hemisphere. The signature of the solar cycle covers all latitudes and contributes about 10 DU from solar maximum to solar minimum. EESC is found to be a main contributor to the long-term ozone decline and the trend changes after the end of the 1990s. From the EESC fits, statistically significant upward trends after 1997 were found in the extratropics, which points at the slowing of ozone decline and the onset of ozone recovery. The EESC based trends are compared with the trends obtained from the statistical piecewise linear trend (PWLT) model (known as hockey stick) with a turnaround in 1997 to examine the differences between both approaches. In case of the SBUV merged V8.6 data the EESC and PWLT trends before and after 1997 are in good agreement (within 2 σ), however, the positive post-1997 linear trends from the PWLT regression are not significant within 2 σ. A sensitivity study is carried out by comparing the regression results, using SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 merged time series (1979-2012) and a merged data set combining SBUV/SBUV-2 (1979-June 1995) and GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 ("GSG") WFDOAS (Weighting Function DOAS) (July 1995-2012) as well as SBUV/TOMS/OMI MOD V8.0 (1979-2012) in the regression analysis in order to investigate the uncertainty in the long-term trends due to different ozone data sets and data versions. Replacing the late SBUV/SBUV-2 merged data record with GSG data (unscaled and adjusted) leads to very similar results demonstrating the high consistency between satellite data sets. However, the comparison of the new SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 with the MOD V8.0 and MOD8.6/GSG data showed somewhat smaller sensitivities with regard to several proxies as well as the linear EESC trends. On the other hand, the PWLT trends after 1997 show some differences, however, within the 2 σ error bars the PWLT trends agree with each other for all three data sets.

[Analysis on the trend of long-term change of blood pressure in hypertensive patients treated with benazepril].

PubMed

Lu, Jun; Li, Li-Ming; He, Ping-Ping; Cao, Wei-Hua; Zhan, Si-Yan; Hu, Yong-Hua

2004-06-01

To introduce the application of mixed linear model in the analysis of secular trend of blood pressure under antihypertensive treatment. A community-based postmarketing surveillance of benazepril was conducted in 1831 essential hypertensive patients (age range from 35 to 88 years) in Shanghai. Data of blood pressure was analyzed every 3 months with mixed linear model to describe the secular trend of blood pressure and changes of age-specific and gender-specific. The changing trends of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were found to fit the curvilinear models. A piecewise model was fit for pulse pressure (PP), i.e., curvilinear model in the first 9 months and linear model after 9 months of taking medication. Both blood pressure and its velocity gradually slowed down. There were significant variation for the curve parameters of intercept, slope, and acceleration. Blood pressure in patients with higher initial levels was persistently declining in the 3-year-treatment. However blood pressures of patients with relatively low initial levels remained low when dropped down to some degree. Elderly patients showed high SBP but low DBP, so as with higher PP. The velocity and sizes of blood pressure reductions increased with the initial level of blood pressure. Mixed linear model is flexible and robust when applied to the analysis of longitudinal data but with missing values and can also make the maximum use of available information.

Medico-legal litigation in Obstetrics: a characterization analysis of a decade in Portugal.

PubMed

Domingues, Ana Patrícia Rodrigues; Belo, Adriana; Moura, Paulo; Vieira, Duarte Nuno

2015-05-01

It was to analyse the most critical areas in Obstetrics and to suggest measures to reduce or avoid the situations most often involved in these disputes. Obstetrics cases submitted to the Medico-legal Council since the creation of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences in 2001 until 2011 were evaluated. A comprehensive characterization, determination of absolute/relative frequencies, hypothesis of a linear trend over the years and the association between each parameter was done. The analysis has shown no significantly linear trend. The most common reasons for disputes were perinatal asphyxia (50%), traumatic injuries of the newborn (24%), maternal sequelae (19%) and issues related to prenatal diagnosis and/or obstetric ultrasound (5.4%). Perinatal asphyxia showed no significantly linear trend (p=0.58) and was usually related to perinatal deaths or permanent neurologic sequelae in newborn children. Traumatic injuries of the newborn, mostly related to instrumented deliveries, shoulder dystocia or vaginal delivery in breech presentation, has shown a significantly increased linear trend (p<0.001), especially related to instrumented deliveries. The delay/absence of cesarean section was the clinical procedure questioned in a significantly higher number of cases of perinatal asphyxia (68.7%) and of traumatic lesions of the newborn due to instrumented deliveries (20.5%). It is important to improve and correct theoretical/practical daily clinical performance in these highlighted areas, in order to reduce or even avoid situations that could end up in medico-legal litigations.

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Temporal trends in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, 1968 to 2010 - a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Bandi, Priti; Silver, Diana; Mijanovich, Tod; Macinko, James

2015-12-01

In the past 40 years, a variety of factors might have impacted motor vehicle (MV) fatality trends in the US, including public health policies, engineering innovations, trauma care improvements, etc. These factors varied in their timing across states/localities, and many were targeted at particular population subgroups. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time and differences in trend patterns between population subgroups, this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in MV fatalities between 1968 and 2010, by age group and sex. Cause-specific MV fatality data from traffic injuries between 1968 and 2010, based on death certificates filed in the 50 states, and DC were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Long-term (1968 to 2010) and short-term (log-linear piecewise segments) trends in fatality rates were compared for males and females overall and in four separate age groups using joinpoint regression. MV fatalities declined on average by 2.4% per year in males and 2.2% per year in females between 1968 and 2010, with significant declines observed in all age groups and in both sexes. In males overall and those 25 to 64 years, sharp declines between 1968 and mid-to-late 1990s were followed by a stalling until the mid-2000s, but rates in females experienced a long-term steady decline of a lesser magnitude than males during this time. Trends in those aged <1 to 14 years and 15 to 24 years were mostly steady over time, but males had a larger decline than females in the latter age group between 1968 and the mid-2000s. In ages 65+, short-term trends were similar between sexes. Despite significant long-term declines in MV fatalities, the application of Joinpoint Regression found that progress in young adult and middle-aged adult males stalled in recent decades and rates in males declined relatively more than in females in certain age groups. Future research is needed to establish the causes of these observed trends, including the potential role of contemporaneous MV-related policies and their repeal. Such research is needed in order to better inform the design and evaluation of future population interventions addressing MV fatalities nationally.

Urinary and dietary analysis of 18,470 bangladeshis reveal a correlation of rice consumption with arsenic exposure and toxicity.

PubMed

Melkonian, Stephanie; Argos, Maria; Hall, Megan N; Chen, Yu; Parvez, Faruque; Pierce, Brandon; Cao, Hongyuan; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Slavcovich, Vesna; Gamble, Mary; Haris, Parvez I; Graziano, Joseph H; Ahsan, Habibul

2013-01-01

We utilized data from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Araihazar, Bangladesh, to evaluate the association of steamed rice consumption with urinary total arsenic concentration and arsenical skin lesions in the overall study cohort (N=18,470) and in a subset with available urinary arsenic metabolite data (N=4,517). General linear models with standardized beta coefficients were used to estimate associations between steamed rice consumption and urinary total arsenic concentration and urinary arsenic metabolites. Logistic regression models were used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between rice intake and prevalent skin lesions at baseline. Discrete time hazard models were used to estimate discrete time (HRs) ratios and their 95% CIs for the associations between rice intake and incident skin lesions. Steamed rice consumption was positively associated with creatinine-adjusted urinary total arsenic (β=0.041, 95% CI: 0.032-0.051) and urinary total arsenic with statistical adjustment for creatinine in the model (β=0.043, 95% CI: 0.032-0.053). Additionally, we observed a significant trend in skin lesion prevalence (P-trend=0.007) and a moderate trend in skin lesion incidence (P-trend=0.07) associated with increased intake of steamed rice. This study suggests that rice intake may be a source of arsenic exposure beyond drinking water.

Thyroid hormones and coronary artery calcification in euthyroid men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiyi; Kim, Bo-Kyoung; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Rampal, Sanjay; Zhao, Di; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Lima, Joao A; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

2014-09-01

Overt and subclinical hypothyroidism are risk factors for atherosclerosis. It is unclear whether thyroid hormone levels within the normal range are also associated with atherosclerosis measured by coronary artery calcium (CAC). We conducted a cross-sectional study of 41 403 apparently healthy young and middle-aged men and women with normal thyroid hormone levels. Free thyroxin, free triiodothyronine, and thyroid-stimulating hormone levels were measured by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay. CAC score was measured by multidetector computed tomography. The multivariable adjusted CAC ratios comparing the highest versus the lowest quartile of thyroid hormones were 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.91; P for trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.81 (0.66-1.00; P for trend=0.05) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.78 (0.64-0.95; P for trend=0.01) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. Similarly, the odds ratios for detectable CAC (CAC >0) comparing the highest versus the lowest quartiles of thyroid hormones were 0.87 (0.79-0.96; P for linear trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.90 (0.82-0.99; P for linear trend=0.02) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.91 (0.83-1.00; P for linear trend=0.03) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. In a large cohort of apparently healthy young and middle-aged euthyroid men and women, low-normal free thyroxin and thyroid-stimulating hormone were associated with a higher prevalence of subclinical coronary artery disease and with a greater degree of coronary calcification. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Riparian Bird Population Monitoring in Utah, 1992-2001

Treesearch

Russell E. Norvell; Frank P. Howe; Jimmie R. Parrish

2005-01-01

We report statewide linear and non-linear trends in density from 1992 to 2001 for six common bird species in the riparian areas of Utah. The six species examined here represent over 24 percent of all observations in the period. Four of the six species showed linear declines (Black-headed Grosbeak [Pheucticus melanocephalus], American Goldfinch [

Trends in popularity of some morphological traits of purebred dogs in Australia.

PubMed

Teng, Kendy T; McGreevy, Paul D; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Dhand, Navneet K

2016-01-01

The morphology of dogs can provide information about their predisposition to some disorders. For example, larger breeds are predisposed to hip dysplasia and many neoplastic diseases. Therefore, longitudinal trends in popularity of dog morphology can reveal potential disease pervasiveness in the future. There have been reports on the popularity of particular breeds and behavioural traits but trends in the morphological traits of preferred breeds have not been studied. This study investigated trends in the height, dog size and head shape (cephalic index) of Australian purebred dogs. One hundred eighty-one breeds derived from Australian National Kennel Council (ANKC) registration statistics from 1986 to 2013 were analysed. Weighted regression analyses were conducted to examine trends in the traits by using them as outcome variables, with year as the explanatory variable and numbers of registered dogs as weights. Linear regression investigated dog height and cephalic index (skull width/skull length), and multinomial logistic regression studied dog size. The total number of ANKC registration had decreased gradually from 95,792 in 1986 to 66,902 in 2013. Both weighted minimal height (p = 0.014) and weighted maximal height (p < 0.001) decreased significantly over time, and the weighted cephalic index increased significantly (p < 0.001). The odds of registration of medium and small breeds increased by 5.3 % and 4.2 %, respectively, relative to large breeds (p < 0.001) and by 12.1 % and 11.0 %, respectively, relative to giant breeds (p < 0.001) for each 5-year block of time. Compared to taller and larger breeds, shorter and smaller breeds have become relatively popular over time. Mean cephalic index has increased, which indicates that Australians have gradually favoured breeds with shorter and wider heads (brachycephalic). These significant trends indicate that the dog morphological traits reported here may potentially influence how people select companion dogs in Australia and provide valuable predictive information on the pervasiveness of diseases in dogs.

Trends in HIV infection surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Norway, 1995-2011

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent reports on the growing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the EU/EEA area were accompanied by an increase of reported HIV among MSM in Oslo, Norway in 2003. Our study with data from 1995 to 2011 has described the recent trends of HIV among MSM in Norway and their socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics. Methods The data were collected from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases. Cases were described by age, place of infection, clinical presentation of HIV infection, STI co-infection and source partner. We used simple linear regression to estimate trends over time. Results During the study period, 991 MSM, aged from 16 to 80 years, were newly diagnosed with HIV. No significant trends over time in overall median age (36 years) were observed. Most of the MSM (505, 51%) were infected in Oslo. In the years 1995-2002, 30 to 45 MSM were diagnosed with HIV each year, while in the years 2003-2011 this increased to between 56 and 97 cases. The proportion of MSM, presenting with either AIDS or HIV illness, decreased over time, while asymptomatic and acute HIV illness increased (p for trend=0.034 or less). STI co-infection was reported in 133 (13%) cases. An overall increase of syphilis co-infected cases was observed (p for trend <0.001). A casual partner was a source of infection in 590 cases (60%). Conclusions Though the increases described could be attributed to earlier testing and diagnosis, no change in the median age of cases was observed. This indicates that it is likely that there has been an increase in HIV infections among MSM in Norway since 2003. The simultaneous increase in STI co-infections indicates risky sexual behaviour and a potential to spread both HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. PMID:23414557

Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series.

PubMed

Kerzenmacher, Tobias E; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain; Chanin, Marie-Lise

2006-07-01

Multi-regression analyses have often been used recently to detect trends, in particular in ozone or temperature data sets in the stratosphere. The confidence in detecting trends depends on a number of factors which generate uncertainties. Part of these uncertainties comes from the random variability and these are what is usually considered. They can be statistically estimated from residual deviations between the data and the fitting model. However, interferences between different sources of variability affecting the data set, such as the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO), volcanic aerosols, solar flux variability and the trend can also be a critical source of errors. This type of error has hitherto not been well quantified. In this work an artificial data series has been generated to carry out such estimates. The sources of errors considered here are: the length of the data series, the dependence on the choice of parameters used in the fitting model and the time evolution of the trend in the data series. Curves provided here, will permit future studies to test the magnitude of the methodological bias expected for a given case, as shown in several real examples. It is found that, if the data series is shorter than a decade, the uncertainties are very large, whatever factors are chosen to identify the source of the variability. However the errors can be limited when dealing with natural variability, if a sufficient number of periods (for periodic forcings) are covered by the analysed dataset. However when analysing the trend, the response to volcanic eruption induces a bias, whatever the length of the data series. The signal to noise ratio is a key factor: doubling the noise increases the period for which data is required in order to obtain an error smaller than 10%, from 1 to 3-4 decades. Moreover, if non-linear trends are superimposed on the data, and if the length of the series is longer than five years, a non-linear function has to be used to estimate trends. When applied to real data series, and when a breakpoint in the series occurs, the study reveals that data extending over 5 years are needed to detect a significant change in the slope of the ozone trends at mid-latitudes.

Increasing trend in the average temperature in Finland, 1847-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikkonen, Santtu; Laine, Marko; Mäkelä, Hanna M.; Gregow, Hilppa; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Lahtinen, Matti; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

The global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 ° C since the mid-19th century. It has been shown that this increase is statistically significant and that it can, for the most part, be attributed to human-induced climate change (IPCC 2007). A temperature increase is obvious also in regional and local temperatures in many parts of the world. However, compared with the global average temperature, the regional and local temperatures exhibit higher levels of noise, which has largely been removed from the global temperature due to the higher level of averaging. Because Finland is located in northern latitudes, it is subject to the polar amplification of climate change-induced warming, which is due to the enhanced melting of snow and ice and other feedback mechanisms. Therefore, warming in Finland is expected to be approximately 50% higher than the global average. Conversely, the location of Finland between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Eurasia causes the weather to be very variable, and thus the temperature signal is rather noisy. The change in mean temperature in Finland was investigated with Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 165 years. The data consisted of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the DLM models. We found that the Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen clearly over 2° C in the years 1847-2012, which amounts to 0.16 ° C/decade. The warming rate before 1940's was close to the linear trend for the whole period, whereas the temperature change in the mid-20th century was negligible. However, the warming after the late 1960s has been remarkably fast. The model indicates that within the last 40 years the rate of change has been as high as 0.30 ° C/decade. The increase in temperature has been highest in spring and in late autumn but the change in summer months has not been so evident. The observed warming is somewhat higher than the global trend, which confirms the assumption that warming is stronger in higher latitudes.

A multi-criteria evaluation system for marine litter pollution based on statistical analyses of OSPAR beach litter monitoring time series.

PubMed

Schulz, Marcus; Neumann, Daniel; Fleet, David M; Matthies, Michael

2013-12-01

During the last decades, marine pollution with anthropogenic litter has become a worldwide major environmental concern. Standardized monitoring of litter since 2001 on 78 beaches selected within the framework of the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR) has been used to identify temporal trends of marine litter. Based on statistical analyses of this dataset a two-part multi-criteria evaluation system for beach litter pollution of the North-East Atlantic and the North Sea is proposed. Canonical correlation analyses, linear regression analyses, and non-parametric analyses of variance were used to identify different temporal trends. A classification of beaches was derived from cluster analyses and served to define different states of beach quality according to abundances of 17 input variables. The evaluation system is easily applicable and relies on the above-mentioned classification and on significant temporal trends implied by significant rank correlations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Use of Crow-AMSAA Plots to Assess Mishap Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, Jeffrey W.

2011-01-01

Crow-AMSAA (CA) plots are used to model reliability growth. Use of CA plots has expanded into other areas, such as tracking events of interest to management, maintenance problems, and safety mishaps. Safety mishaps can often be successfully modeled using a Poisson probability distribution. CA plots show a Poisson process in log-log space. If the safety mishaps are a stable homogenous Poisson process, a linear fit to the points in a CA plot will have a slope of one. Slopes of greater than one indicate a nonhomogenous Poisson process, with increasing occurrence. Slopes of less than one indicate a nonhomogenous Poisson process, with decreasing occurrence. Changes in slope, known as "cusps," indicate a change in process, which could be an improvement or a degradation. After presenting the CA conceptual framework, examples are given of trending slips, trips and falls, and ergonomic incidents at NASA (from Agency-level data). Crow-AMSAA plotting is a robust tool for trending safety mishaps that can provide insight into safety performance over time.

Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chylek, Petr; Folland, Chris K.; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

2010-04-01

Understanding the phase relationship between climate changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions is essential for our understanding of the dynamics of the Earth's climate system. In this paper we show that the 20th century de-trended Arctic and Antarctic temperatures vary in anti-phase seesaw pattern - when the Arctic warms the Antarctica cools and visa versa. This is the first time that a bi-polar seesaw pattern has been identified in the 20th century Arctic and Antarctic temperature records. The Arctic (Antarctic) de-trended temperatures are highly correlated (anti-correlated) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index suggesting the Atlantic Ocean as a possible link between the climate variability of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Recent accelerated warming of the Arctic results from a positive reinforcement of the linear warming trend (due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and other possible forcings) by the warming phase of the multidecadal climate variability (due to fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean circulation).

Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

PubMed

Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

2016-09-01

Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (p<0.005). The proportion of movies depicting tobacco consumption during the three decades was 36% (1982-1991), 60% (1992-2001) and 74% (2002-2011), respectively. The average proportion of total movie time for these depictions (0.75%, 1.41%, 2.08%) increased significantly (p<0.005) over the 3 decades as did the average duration of smoking depictions,(39.1, 67 and 99.3 s, respectively, p<0.005). The significant increase in the proportion of movies depicting tobacco consumption and in the duration of smoking depictions over the past 30 years underscores the need for increased regulation of the Iranian film industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

The largest Last Supper: depictions of food portions and plate size increased over the millennium.

PubMed

Wansink, B; Wansink, C S

2010-05-01

Portion sizes of foods have been noticably increasing in recent years, but when did this trend begin? If art imitates life and if food portions have been generally increasing with time, we might expect this trend to be reflected in paintings that depict food. Perhaps the most commonly painted meal has been that of Jesus Christ's Last Supper, chronicled in the New Testament of the Bible. A CAD-CAM analysis of the relative food-to-head ratio in 52 representative paintings of the Last Supper showed that the relative sizes of the main dish (entree) (r=0.52, P=0.002), bread (r=0.30, P=0.04), and plates (r=0.46, P=0.02) have linearly increased over the past millennium.

Time evolution of atmospheric parameters and their influence on sea level pressure over the head Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Anindita; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.; Jose, Felix

2018-06-01

A zonal dipole in the observed trends of wind speed and significant wave height over the Head Bay of Bengal region was recently reported in the literature attributed due to the variations in sea level pressure (SLP). The SLP in turn is governed by prevailing atmospheric conditions such as local temperature, humidity, rainfall, atmospheric pressure, wind field distribution, formation of tropical cyclones, etc. The present study attempts to investigate the inter-annual variability of atmospheric parameters and its role on the observed zonal dipole trend in sea level pressure, surface wind speed and significant wave height. It reports on the aspects related to linear trend as well as its spatial variability for several atmospheric parameters: air temperature, geopotential height, omega (vertical velocity), and zonal wind, over the head Bay of Bengal, by analyzing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 dataset covering a period of 38 years (1979-2016). Significant warming from sea level to 200 mb pressure level and thereafter cooling above has been noticed during all the seasons. Warming within the troposphere exhibits spatial difference between eastern and western side of the domain. This led to fall in lower tropospheric geopotential height and its east-west variability, exhibiting a zonal dipole pattern across the Head Bay. In the upper troposphere, uplift in geopotential height was found as a result of cooling in higher levels (10-100 mb). Variability in omega also substantiated the observed variations in geopotential height. The study also finds weakening in the upper level westerlies and easterlies. Interestingly, a linear trend in lower tropospheric u-wind component also reveals an east-west dipole pattern over the study region. Further, the study corroborates the reported dipole in trends of sea level pressure, wind speed and significant wave height by evaluating the influence of atmospheric variability on these parameters.

Antimicrobial resistance trends in Escherichia coli isolated from diseased food-producing animals in France: A 14-year period time-series study.

PubMed

Boireau, C; Morignat, É; Cazeau, G; Jarrige, N; Jouy, É; Haenni, M; Madec, J-Y; Leblond, A; Gay, É

2018-02-01

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) among bacteria isolated from food-producing animals is a growing concern with implications for public health. AMR surveillance is essential to identify resistance trends and help in the design of effective and efficient control strategies. The aim of the study was to describe the antimicrobial susceptibility of pathogenic Escherichia coli isolated from three livestock productions in France (cattle, swine and poultry). The trend in resistance to the most commonly prescribed antibiotics in animal health was analysed as follows: amoxicillin (penicillin), spectinomycin or streptomycin (aminoglycoside), tetracycline and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole/Enrofloxacin and ceftiofur were also taken into account as members of critically important antimicrobial families in human and veterinary medicine, that is fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins, respectively. Data collected between 2002 and 2015 by the French national surveillance network of AMR referred to as RESAPATH were analysed. Resistance trends were investigated using non-linear analysis (generalized additive models) applied to time-series stratified by livestock production and antibiotic. Irrespective of the species and the antibiotic considered, resistance signals over time showed no significant annual cycle. Resistance to third-generation cephalosporins emerged during the period of the study, with a peak at 22% [20.5; 24.0] in poultry in 2010, decreasing afterwards, while it remained consistently below 10% for the other species. The proportion of resistance to fluoroquinolones was broadly similar between species and remained under 30%, with a slight decreasing trend after 2009. Resistances to tetracycline and amoxicillin remained high, between 90% and 40% over time in cattle and swine. After 2010, there was a decrease in resistance to these antibiotics for all species, especially to tetracycline for poultry with a drop from 84% in 2009 to 43% in 2015. These results contribute to risk assessment and constitute objective evidence on which to evaluate the efficacy of control measures implemented to limit AMR occurrence. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Trajectories of eGFR decline over a four year period in an Indigenous Australian population at high risk of CKD-the eGFR follow up study.

PubMed

Barzi, Federica; Jones, Graham R D; Hughes, Jaquelyne T; Lawton, Paul D; Hoy, Wendy; O'Dea, Kerin; Jerums, George; MacIsaac, Richard J; Cass, Alan; Maple-Brown, Louise J

2018-03-01

Being able to estimate kidney decline accurately is particularly important in Indigenous Australians, a population at increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease and end stage kidney disease. The aim of this analysis was to explore the trend of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over a four year period using multiple local creatinine measures, compared with estimates derived using centrally-measured enzymatic creatinine and with estimates derived using only two local measures. The eGFR study comprised a cohort of over 600 Aboriginal Australian participants recruited from over twenty sites in urban, regional and remote Australia across five strata of health, diabetes and kidney function. Trajectories of eGFR were explored on 385 participants with at least three local creatinine records using graphical methods that compared the linear trends fitted using linear mixed models with non-linear trends fitted using fractional polynomial equations. Temporal changes of local creatinine were also characterized using group-based modelling. Analyses were stratified by eGFR (<60; 60-89; 90-119 and ≥120ml/min/1.73m 2 ) and albuminuria categories (<3mg/mmol; 3-30mg/mmol; >30mg/mmol). Mean age of the participants was 48years, 64% were female and the median follow-up was 3years. Decline of eGFR was accurately estimated using simple linear regression models and locally measured creatinine was as good as centrally measured creatinine at predicting kidney decline in people with an eGFR<60 and an eGFR 60-90ml/min/1.73m 2 with albuminuria. Analyses showed that one baseline and one follow-up locally measured creatinine may be sufficient to estimate short term (up to four years) kidney function decline. The greatest yearly decline was estimated in those with eGFR 60-90 and macro-albuminuria: -6.21 (-8.20, -4.23) ml/min/1.73m 2 . Short term estimates of kidney function decline can be reliably derived using an easy to implement and simple to interpret linear mixed effect model. Locally measured creatinine did not differ to centrally measured creatinine, thus is an accurate cost-efficient and timely means to monitoring kidney function progression. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in arthropod abundances after the transition to organic farming in paddy fields.

PubMed

Tsutsui, Masaru H; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko; Miyashita, Tadashi

2018-01-01

Organic farming aims to reduce the effect on the ecosystem and enhance biodiversity in agricultural areas, but the long-term effectiveness of its application is unclear. Assessments have rarely included various taxonomic groups with different ecological and economic roles. In paddy fields with different numbers of years elapsed since the transition from conventional to organic farming, we investigated changes in the abundance of insect pests, generalist predators, and species of conservation concern. The abundance of various arthropods exhibited diverse trends with respect to years elapsed since the transition to organic farming. Larval lepidopterans, Tetragnatha spiders, and some planthoppers and stink bugs showed non-linear increases over time, eventually reaching saturation, such as the abundance increasing for several years and then becoming stable after 10 years. This pattern can be explained by the effects of residual pesticides, the lag time of soil mineralization, and dispersal limitation. A damselfly (Ischnura asiatica) did not show a particular trend over time, probably due to its rapid immigration from source habitats. Unexpectedly, both planthoppers and some leafhoppers exhibited gradual decreases over time. As their abundances were negatively related to the abundance of Tetragnatha spiders, increased predation by natural enemies might gradually decrease these insect populations. These results suggest that the consideration of time-dependent responses of organisms is essential for the evaluation of the costs and benefits of organic farming, and such evaluations could provide a basis for guidelines regarding the length of time for organic farming to restore biodiversity or the economic subsidy needed to compensate for pest damage.

Temporal trends in arthropod abundances after the transition to organic farming in paddy fields

PubMed Central

Tsutsui, Masaru H.; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

2018-01-01

Organic farming aims to reduce the effect on the ecosystem and enhance biodiversity in agricultural areas, but the long-term effectiveness of its application is unclear. Assessments have rarely included various taxonomic groups with different ecological and economic roles. In paddy fields with different numbers of years elapsed since the transition from conventional to organic farming, we investigated changes in the abundance of insect pests, generalist predators, and species of conservation concern. The abundance of various arthropods exhibited diverse trends with respect to years elapsed since the transition to organic farming. Larval lepidopterans, Tetragnatha spiders, and some planthoppers and stink bugs showed non-linear increases over time, eventually reaching saturation, such as the abundance increasing for several years and then becoming stable after 10 years. This pattern can be explained by the effects of residual pesticides, the lag time of soil mineralization, and dispersal limitation. A damselfly (Ischnura asiatica) did not show a particular trend over time, probably due to its rapid immigration from source habitats. Unexpectedly, both planthoppers and some leafhoppers exhibited gradual decreases over time. As their abundances were negatively related to the abundance of Tetragnatha spiders, increased predation by natural enemies might gradually decrease these insect populations. These results suggest that the consideration of time-dependent responses of organisms is essential for the evaluation of the costs and benefits of organic farming, and such evaluations could provide a basis for guidelines regarding the length of time for organic farming to restore biodiversity or the economic subsidy needed to compensate for pest damage. PMID:29324809

Two-warehouse partial backlogging inventory model for deteriorating items with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaggi, Chandra K.; Khanna, Aditi; Verma, Priyanka

2011-07-01

In today's business transactions, there are various reasons, namely, bulk purchase discounts, re-ordering costs, seasonality of products, inflation induced demand, etc., which force the buyer to order more than the warehouse capacity. Such situations call for additional storage space to store the excess units purchased. This additional storage space is typically a rented warehouse. Inflation plays a very interesting and significant role here: It increases the cost of goods. To safeguard from the rising prices, during the inflation regime, the organisation prefers to keep a higher inventory, thereby increasing the aggregate demand. This additional inventory needs additional storage space, which is facilitated by a rented warehouse. Ignoring the effects of the time value of money and inflation might yield misleading results. In this study, a two-warehouse inventory model with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions having different rates of deterioration has been developed. Shortages at the owned warehouse are also allowed subject to partial backlogging. The solution methodology provided in the model helps to decide on the feasibility of renting a warehouse. Finally, findings have been illustrated with the help of numerical examples. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis has also been provided.

Prevalence and Trends in Domestic Violence in South Korea: Findings From National Surveys.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Yop; Oh, Sehun; Nam, Seok In

2016-05-01

To examine trends in the prevalence of domestic violence since 1997, 1 year prior to the introduction of legislative countermeasures and accompanying services in South Korea, and to analyze what socio-demographic characteristics of perpetrators contribute to spousal violence and whether there were any changes in risk factors over time. This study used two sets of nationally representative household samples: married or cohabiting couples of 1,540 from the 1999 national survey and 3,269 from the 2010 National Survey of Domestic Violence. Frequency analysis was used to measure the prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV), and cross-tabulation, correlation, and logistic regression analyses were used to look for socio-demographic risk factors of spousal physical violence and patterns of change over time. The frequency analysis showed that the IPV prevalence dropped by approximately 50%, from 34.1% in 1999 to 16.5% in 2010, though it was still higher than many other countries. The cross-tabulation and logistic regression analyses suggested that men with low socio-demographic characteristics were generally more violent, though this tendency did not apply to women. Instead, younger women seemed to be more violent than older women. Last, different levels of household income were associated with different levels of IPV in 2010, but no linear trend was detected. In this study, IPV prevalence trends and risk factors of two different time periods were discussed to provide implications for tackling the IPV problem. Future countermeasures must build on understanding about men with low socio-demographic status and younger women, who were more violent in marital relationships. © The Author(s) 2015.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Effects of the observed J2 variations on the Earth's precession and nutation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrándiz, José M.; Baenas, Tomás; Belda, Santiago

2016-04-01

The Earth's oblateness parameter J2 is closely related to the dynamical ellipticity H, which factorizes the main components of the precession and the different nutation terms. In most theoretical approaches to the Earth's rotation, with IAU2000 nutation theory among them, H is assumed to be constant. The precession model IAU2006 supposes H to have a conventional linear variation, based on the J2 time series derived mainly from satellite laser ranging (SLR) data for decades, which gives rise to an additional quadratic term of the precession in longitude and some corrections of the nutation terms. The time evolution of J2 is, however, too complex to be well approximated by a simple linear model. The effect of more general models including periodic terms and closer to the observed time series, although still unable to reproduce a significant part of the signal, has been seldom investigated. In this work we address the problem of deriving the effect of the observed J2 variations without resorting to such simplified models. The Hamiltonian approach to the Earth rotation is extended to allow the McCullagh's term of the potential to depend on a time-varying oblateness. An analytical solution is derived by means of a suitable perturbation method in the case of the time series provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR) of the University of Texas, which results in non-negligible contributions to the precession-nutation angles. The presentation focuses on the main effects on the longitude of the equator; a noticeable non-linear trend is superimposed to the linear main precession term, along with some periodic and decadal variations.

Obesity and severe obesity forecasts through 2030.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Khavjou, Olga A; Thompson, Hope; Trogdon, Justin G; Pan, Liping; Sherry, Bettylou; Dietz, William

2012-06-01

Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off. This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts. The study was conducted in 2009-2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥ 18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence. Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion. The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Autism phenotype versus registered diagnosis in Swedish children: prevalence trends over 10 years in general population samples.

PubMed

Lundström, Sebastian; Reichenberg, Abraham; Anckarsäter, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; Gillberg, Christopher

2015-04-28

To compare the annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype and of registered diagnoses for autism spectrum disorder during a 10 year period in children. Population based study. Child and Adolescent Twin Study and national patient register, Sweden. 19, 993 twins (190 with autism spectrum disorder) and all children (n=1,078,975; 4620 with autism spectrum disorder) born in Sweden over a 10 year period from 1993 to 2002. Annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype (that is, symptoms on which the diagnostic criteria are based) assessed by a validated parental telephone interview (the Autism-Tics, ADHD and other Comorbidities inventory), and annual prevalence of reported diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in the national patient register. The annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype was stable during the 10 year period (P=0.87 for linear time trend). In contrast, there was a monotonic significant increase in prevalence of registered diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in the national patient register (P<0.001 for linear trend). The prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype has remained stable in children in Sweden while the official prevalence for registered, clinically diagnosed, autism spectrum disorder has increased substantially. This suggests that administrative changes, affecting the registered prevalence, rather than secular factors affecting the pathogenesis, are important for the increase in reported prevalence of autism spectrum disorder. © Lundström et al 2015.

Europe experienced a "warming hole" in autumn in the second half of the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, M.; Pokorna, L.; Huth, R.

2012-12-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there might be seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in central and eastern Europe. In this study we use daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations from the ECA&D database in Europe and the Mediterranean in the period 1961-2000 to precisely locate their seasonal and sub-seasonal trends in space and within the course of the year, and to assess the effect of circulation changes on these observed trends. Linear trends are calculated for moving "seasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Thus we obtain 365 values of "moving trends" for each station and each variant of season length. The day-to-day variability of these trends is greatest for short "seasons" of 10 and 20 days. Trends of the 90-day seasons are the most stable throughout the year and also bear the lowest trend magnitudes. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "moving trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in eastern Europe. Two regions stand out of this general picture: in Iceland and the Mediterranean, winter shows almost no trends, while in summer we see a pronounced warming. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in eastern and southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in western and central Europe in April and June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Changes in atmospheric circulation may be one of the factors that influence the observed temperature trends. We use one daily circulation type classification from the European project "COST733", calculated over 11 pre-defined spatial domains, and a simple decomposition method to assess the effect of circulation changes on "moving trends" of temperature and DTR. Our results vary greatly between stations and times of the year; all in all, circulation changes are only responsible for a minor part of the observed trends. At most stations, the only substantial circulation effect is found in winter. Our results suggest that using different time scales apart from the conventional three-month seasons is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

Indicator saturation: a novel approach to detect multiple breaks in geodetic time series.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. P.; Pretis, F.; Williams, S. D. P.

2016-12-01

Geodetic time series can record long term trends, quasi-periodic signals at a variety of time scales from days to decades, and sudden breaks due to natural or anthropogenic causes. The causes of breaks range from instrument replacement to earthquakes to unknown (i.e. no attributable cause). Furthermore, breaks can be permanent or short-lived and range at least two orders of magnitude in size (mm to 100's mm). To account for this range of possible signal-characteristics requires a flexible time series method that can distinguish between true and false breaks, outliers and time-varying trends. One such method, Indicator Saturation (IS) comes from the field of econometrics where analysing stochastic signals in these terms is a common problem. The IS approach differs from alternative break detection methods by considering every point in the time series as a break until it is demonstrated statistically that it is not. A linear model is constructed with a break function at every point in time, and all but statistically significant breaks are removed through a general-to-specific model selection algorithm for more variables than observations. The IS method is flexible because it allows multiple breaks of different forms (e.g. impulses, shifts in the mean, and changing trends) to be detected, while simultaneously modelling any underlying variation driven by additional covariates. We apply the IS method to identify breaks in a suite of synthetic GPS time series used for the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiments (DOGEX). We optimise the method to maximise the ratio of true-positive to false-positive detections, which improves estimates of errors in the long term rates of land motion currently required by the GPS community.

Psychosocial working conditions in a representative sample of working Australians 2001-2008: an analysis of changes in inequalities over time.

PubMed

LaMontagne, A D; Krnjacki, L; Kavanagh, A M; Bentley, R

2013-09-01

A number of widely prevalent job stressors have been identified as modifiable risk factors for common mental and physical illnesses such as depression and cardiovascular disease, yet there has been relatively little study of population trends in exposure to job stressors over time. The aims of this paper were to assess: (1) overall time trends in job control and security and (2) whether disparities by sex, age, skill level and employment arrangement were changing over time in the Australian working population. Job control and security were measured in eight annual waves (2000-2008) from the Australian nationally-representative Household Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia panel survey (n=13 188 unique individuals for control and n=13 182 for security). Observed and model-predicted time trends were generated. Models were generated using population-averaged longitudinal linear regression, with year fitted categorically. Changes in disparities over time by sex, age group, skill level and employment arrangement were tested as interactions between each of these stratifying variables and time. While significant disparities persisted for disadvantaged compared with advantaged groups, results suggested that inequalities in job control narrowed among young workers compared with older groups and for casual, fixed-term and self-employed compared with permanent workers. A slight narrowing of disparities over time in job security was noted for gender, age, employment arrangement and occupational skill level. Despite the favourable findings of small reductions in disparities in job control and security, significant cross-sectional disparities persist. Policy and practice intervention to improve psychosocial working conditions for disadvantaged groups could reduce these persisting disparities and associated illness burdens.

Analysis of trend changes in Northern African palaeo-climate by using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schütz, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

2010-05-01

Climate variability of Northern Africa is of high interest due to climate-evolutionary linkages under study. The reconstruction of the palaeo-climate over long time scales, including the expected linkages (> 3 Ma), is mainly accessible by proxy data from deep sea drilling cores. By concentrating on published data sets, we try to decipher rhythms and trends to detect correlations between different proxy time series by advanced mathematical methods. Our preliminary data is dust concentration, as an indicator for climatic changes such as humidity, from the ODP sites 659, 721 and 967 situated around Northern Africa. Our interest is in challenging the available time series with advanced statistical methods to detect significant trend changes and to compare different model assumptions. For that purpose, we want to avoid the rescaling of the time axis to obtain equidistant time steps for filtering methods. Additionally we demand an plausible description of the errors for the estimated parameters, in terms of confidence intervals. Finally, depending on what model we restrict on, we also want an insight in the parameter structure of the assumed models. To gain this information, we focus on Bayesian inference by formulating the problem as a linear mixed model, so that the expectation and deviation are of linear structure. By using the Bayesian method we can formulate the posteriori density as a function of the model parameters and calculate this probability density in the parameter space. Depending which parameters are of interest, we analytically and numerically marginalize the posteriori with respect to the remaining parameters of less interest. We apply a simple linear mixed model to calculate the posteriori densities of the ODP sites 659 and 721 concerning the last 5 Ma at maximum. From preliminary calculations on these data sets, we can confirm results gained by the method of breakfit regression combined with block bootstrapping ([1]). We obtain a significant change point around (1.63 - 1.82) Ma, which correlates with a global climate transition due to the establishment of the Walker circulation ([2]). Furthermore we detect another significant change point around (2.7 - 3.2) Ma, which correlates with the end of the Pliocene warm period (permanent El Niño-like conditions) and the onset of a colder global climate ([3], [4]). The discussion on the algorithm, the results of calculated confidence intervals, the available information about the applied model in the parameter space and the comparison of multiple change point models will be presented. [1] Trauth, M.H., et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 2009 [2] Wara, M.W., et al., Science, Vol. 309, 2005 [3] Chiang, J.C.H., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 37, 2009 [4] deMenocal, P., Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 220, 2004

Assessing Linearity in the Loudness Envelope of the Messa di Voce Singing Exercise Through Acoustic Signal Analysis.

PubMed

Yadav, Manuj; Cabrera, Densil; Kenny, Dianna T

2015-09-01

Messa di voce (MDV) is a singing exercise that involves sustaining a single pitch with a linear change in loudness from silence to maximum intensity (the crescendo part) and back to silence again (the decrescendo part), with time symmetry between the two parts. Previous studies have used the sound pressure level (SPL, in decibels) of a singer's voice to measure loudness, so as to assess the linearity of each part-an approach that has limitations due to loudness and SPL not being linearly related. This article studies the loudness envelope shapes of MDVs, comparing the SPL approach with approaches that are more closely related to human loudness perception. The MDVs were performed by a cohort of tertiary singing students, recorded six times (once per semester) over a period of 3 years. The loudness envelopes were derived for a typical audience listening position, and for listening to one's own singing, using three models: SPL, Stevens' power law-based model, and a computational loudness model. The effects on the envelope shape due to room acoustics (an important effect) and vibrato (minimal effect) were also considered. The results showed that the SPL model yielded a lower proportion of linear crescendi and decrescendi, compared with other models. The Stevens' power law-based model provided results similar to the more complicated computational loudness model. Longitudinally, there was no consistent trend in the shape of the MDV loudness envelope for the cohort although there were some individual singers who exhibited improvements in linearity. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trend-outflow method for understanding interactions of surface water with groundwater and atmospheric water for eight reaches of the Upper Rio Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Sheng, Zhuping

2011-11-01

SummaryAtmospheric water, surface water, and groundwater interact very actively through hydrologic processes such as precipitation, infiltration, seepage, irrigation, drainage, evaporation, and evapotranspiration in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. A trend-outflow method has been developed in this paper to gain a better understanding of the interactions based on cumulated inflow and outflow data for any river reaches of interest. A general trend-outflow equation was derived by associating the net interaction of surface water with atmospheric water as a polynomial of inflow and the net interaction of surface water with groundwater as a constant based on surface water budget. Linear and quadratic relations are probably two common trend-outflow types in the real world. It was found that trend-outflows of the Upper Rio Grande reaches, Española, Albuquerque, Socorro-Engle, Palomas, and Rincon are linear with inflow, while those of reaches, Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are quadratic. Reaches Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are found as water deficit reaches mainly for irrigated agriculture in extreme drought years.

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Erickson, M. P.; Smith, M. R.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

Decomposing trends in attitudes toward gay marriage, 1988–2006.

PubMed

Baunach, Dawn Michelle

2011-01-01

Objective. The objective of this article is to examine the trend in attitudes toward gay marriage through the analysis of data from the General Social Survey. Methods. Using linear decomposition techniques, I explain the change in attitudes toward gay marriage from 1988 to 2006. Results. Attitudes significantly liberalized over time; 71 percent opposed gay marriage in 1988, but by 2006, this figure dropped to 52 percent. Approximately two-thirds of this change was due to an intracohort change effect, or individuals' modifying their views over time, and one-third was due to a cohort succession effect, or later cohorts replacing earlier ones. This pattern was replicated across many subgroups of the U.S. public, including age, sex, residential, educational, and religious groups. Conclusion. The results suggest that the use of the “equality/tolerance” framing of gay marriage by its supporters and other societal events or “moments” may have convinced some people who used to disapprove of gay marriage in 1988 to approve of it by 2006.

Time Trends and Geographical Distribution of Childhood Leukaemia in Basrah, Iraq, from 2004 to 2009

PubMed Central

Alrudainy, Laith A; Hassan, Jenan G; Salih, Hussam M; Abbas, Mohammed K; Majeed, Athar AS

2011-01-01

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the incidence and trend of childhood leukaemia in Basrah. Methods: This was a hospital-based cancer registry study carried out at the Pediatric Oncology Ward, Maternity & Children’s Hospital and other institutes in Basrah, Iraq. All children with leukaemia, aged 0 to 14 years diagnosed and registered in Basrah from January 2004 to December 2009 were included in the study. Their records were retrieved and studied. The pattern of childhood leukaemia by year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, morphological subtypes, and geographical distribution was analysed. Rates of childhood leukaemia over time were calculated for six years using standard linear regression. Results: The total number of cases of childhood leukaemia was 181. The number of cases ranged from 21 in year 1, to 31 in the final year reaching a peak of 39 in 2006. Leukaemia rates did not change over the study period (test for trend was not significant, P = 0.81). The trend line shows a shift towards younger children (less than 5 years). The commonest types of leukaemia were acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), then acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and finally chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). Conclusion: Annual rates of childhood leukaemia in Basrah were similar to those in other countries with a trend towards younger children. This raises the question about the effect of environmental catastrophes in the alteration of some specific rates of childhood leukaemia, rather than the overall incidence rate. There is a need for further epidemiological studies to understand the aetiology of childhood leukaemia in Basrah. PMID:21969893

Description of the rates, trends and surgical burden associated with revision for prosthetic joint infection following primary and revision knee replacements in England and Wales: an analysis of the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man.

PubMed

Lenguerrand, Erik; Whitehouse, Michael R; Beswick, Andrew D; Toms, Andrew D; Porter, Martyn L; Blom, Ashley W

2017-07-10

To describe the prevalence rates of revision surgery for the treatment of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for patients undergoing knee replacement, their time trends, the cumulative incidence function of revision for PJI and estimate the burden of PJI at health service level. We analysed revision knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI and the linked index procedures recorded in the National Joint Registry from 2003 to 2014 for England and Wales. The cohort analysed consisted of 679 010 index primary knee replacements, 33 920 index revision knee replacements and 8247 revision total knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI. The prevalence rates, their time trends investigated by time from index surgery to revision for PJI, cumulative incidence functions and the burden of PJI (total procedures) were calculated. Overall linear trends were investigated with log-linear regression. The incidence of revision total knee replacement due to PJI at 2 years was 3.2/1000 following primary and 14.4/1000 following revision knee replacement, respectively. The prevalence of revision due to PJI in the 3 months following primary knee replacement has risen by 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3) from 2005 to 2013 and 7.5-fold (95% CI 1.0 to 56.1) following revision knee replacement. Over 1000 procedures per year are performed as a consequence of knee PJI, an increase of 2.8 from 2005 to 2013. Overall, 75% of revisions were two-stage with an increase in use of single-stage from 7.9% in 2005 to 18.8% in 2014. Although the risk of revision due to PJI following knee replacement is low, it is rising, and coupled with the established and further predicted increased incidence of both primary and revision knee replacements, this represents an increasing and substantial treatment burden for orthopaedic service delivery in England and Wales. This has implications for future service design and the funding of individual and specialist centres. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Description of the rates, trends and surgical burden associated with revision for prosthetic joint infection following primary and revision knee replacements in England and Wales: an analysis of the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man

PubMed Central

Lenguerrand, Erik; Whitehouse, Michael R; Beswick, Andrew D; Toms, Andrew D; Porter, Martyn L; Blom, Ashley W

2017-01-01

Objectives To describe the prevalence rates of revision surgery for the treatment of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for patients undergoing knee replacement, their time trends, the cumulative incidence function of revision for PJI and estimate the burden of PJI at health service level. Design We analysed revision knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI and the linked index procedures recorded in the National Joint Registry from 2003 to 2014 for England and Wales. The cohort analysed consisted of 679 010 index primary knee replacements, 33 920 index revision knee replacements and 8247 revision total knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI. The prevalence rates, their time trends investigated by time from index surgery to revision for PJI, cumulative incidence functions and the burden of PJI (total procedures) were calculated. Overall linear trends were investigated with log-linear regression. Results The incidence of revision total knee replacement due to PJI at 2 years was 3.2/1000 following primary and 14.4/1000 following revision knee replacement, respectively. The prevalence of revision due to PJI in the 3 months following primary knee replacement has risen by 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3) from 2005 to 2013 and 7.5-fold (95% CI 1.0 to 56.1) following revision knee replacement. Over 1000 procedures per year are performed as a consequence of knee PJI, an increase of 2.8 from 2005 to 2013. Overall, 75% of revisions were two-stage with an increase in use of single-stage from 7.9% in 2005 to 18.8% in 2014. Conclusions Although the risk of revision due to PJI following knee replacement is low, it is rising, and coupled with the established and further predicted increased incidence of both primary and revision knee replacements, this represents an increasing and substantial treatment burden for orthopaedic service delivery in England and Wales. This has implications for future service design and the funding of individual and specialist centres. PMID:28698316

On the Impact of a Quadratic Acceleration Term in the Analysis of Position Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogusz, Janusz; Klos, Anna; Bos, Machiel Simon; Hunegnaw, Addisu; Teferle, Felix Norman

2016-04-01

The analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series generally assumes that each of the coordinate component series is described by the sum of a linear rate (velocity) and various periodic terms. The residuals, the deviations between the fitted model and the observations, are then a measure of the epoch-to-epoch scatter and have been used for the analysis of the stochastic character (noise) of the time series. Often the parameters of interest in GNSS position time series are the velocities and their associated uncertainties, which have to be determined with the highest reliability. It is clear that not all GNSS position time series follow this simple linear behaviour. Therefore, we have added an acceleration term in the form of a quadratic polynomial function to the model in order to better describe the non-linear motion in the position time series. This non-linear motion could be a response to purely geophysical processes, for example, elastic rebound of the Earth's crust due to ice mass loss in Greenland, artefacts due to deficiencies in bias mitigation models, for example, of the GNSS satellite and receiver antenna phase centres, or any combination thereof. In this study we have simulated 20 time series with different stochastic characteristics such as white, flicker or random walk noise of length of 23 years. The noise amplitude was assumed at 1 mm/y-/4. Then, we added the deterministic part consisting of a linear trend of 20 mm/y (that represents the averaged horizontal velocity) and accelerations ranging from minus 0.6 to plus 0.6 mm/y2. For all these data we estimated the noise parameters with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) using the Hector software package without taken into account the non-linear term. In this way we set the benchmark to then investigate how the noise properties and velocity uncertainty may be affected by any un-modelled, non-linear term. The velocities and their uncertainties versus the accelerations for different types of noise are determined. Furthermore, we have selected 40 globally distributed stations that have a clear non-linear behaviour from two different International GNSS Service (IGS) analysis centers: JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and BLT (British Isles continuous GNSS Facility and University of Luxembourg Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring (TIGA) Analysis Center). We obtained maximum accelerations of -1.8±1.2 mm2/y and -4.5±3.3 mm2/y for the horizontal and vertical components, respectively. The noise analysis tests have shown that the addition of the non-linear term has significantly whitened the power spectra of the position time series, i.e. shifted the spectral index from flicker towards white noise.

Changes in dialysis treatment modalities during institution of flat rate reimbursement and quality assurance programs.

PubMed

Kleophas, Werner; Karaboyas, Angelo; Li, Yun; Bommer, Juergen; Reichel, Helmut; Walter, Andreas; Icks, Andrea; Rump, Lars C; Pisoni, Ronald L; Robinson, Bruce M; Port, Friedrich K

2013-09-01

Dialysis procedure rates in Germany were changed in 2002 from per-session to weekly flat rate payments, and quality assurance was introduced in 2009 with defined treatment targets for spKt/V, dialysis frequency, treatment time, and hemoglobin. In order to understand trends in treatment parameters before and after the introduction of these changes, we analyzed data from 407 to 618 prevalent patients each year (hemodialysis over 90 days) in 14-21 centers in cross-sections of the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (phases 1-4, 1998-2011). Descriptive statistics were used to report differences over time in the four quality assurance parameters along with erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA) and intravenous iron doses. Time trends were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusted for patient demographics and comorbidities. The proportion of patients with short treatment times (less than 4 h) and low spKt/V (below 1.2) improved throughout the study and was lowest after implementation of quality assurance. Hemoglobin levels have increased since 1998 and remained consistent since 2005, with only 8-10% of patients below 10 g/dl. About 90% of patients were prescribed ESAs, with the dose declining since peaking in 2006. Intravenous iron use was highest in 2011. Hence, trends to improve quality metrics for hemodialysis have been established in Germany even after introduction of flat rate reimbursement. Thus, analysis of facility practice patterns is needed to maintain quality of care in a cost-containment environment.

Influences of removing linear and nonlinear trends from climatic variables on temporal variations of annual reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Yao, Ning; Chau, Henry Wai

2017-08-15

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ) is a key parameter in field irrigation scheduling, drought assessment and climate change research. ET o uses key prescribed (or fixed or reference) land surface parameters for crops. The linear and nonlinear trends in different climatic variables (CVs) affect ET o change. This research aims to reveal how ET o responds after the related CVs were linearly and nonlinearly detrended over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China. The ET o -related CVs included minimum (T min ), average (T ave ), and maximum air temperatures (T max ), wind speed at 2m (U 2 ), relative humidity (RH) and sunshine hour (n). ET o was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. A total of 29 ET o scenarios, including the original scenario, 14 scenarios in Group I (ET o was recalculated after removing linear trends from single or more CVs) and 14 scenarios in Group II (ET o was recalculated after removing nonlinear trends from the CVs), were generated. The influence of U 2 was stronger than influences of the other CVs on ET o for both Groups I and II either in northern, southern or the entirety of Xinjiang. The weak influences of increased T min , T ave and T max on increasing ET o were masked by the strong effects of decreased U 2 &n and increased RH on decreasing ET o . The effects of the trends in CVs, especially U 2 , on changing ET o were clearly shown. Without the general decreases of U 2 , ET o would have increased in the past 53years. Due to the non-monotone variations of the CVs and ET o , the results of nonlinearly detrending CVs on changing ET o in Group II should be more plausible than the results of linearly detrending CVs in Group I. The decreasing ET o led to a general relief in drought, which was indicated by the recalculated aridity index. Therefore, there would be a slightly lower risk of water utilization in Xinjiang, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term geochemical surveillance of fumaroles at Showa-Shinzan dome, Usu volcano, Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symonds, R.B.; Mizutani, Y.; Briggs, P.H.

1996-01-01

This study investigates 31 years of fumarole gas and condensate (trace elements) data from Showa-Shinzan, a dacitic dome-cryptodome complex that formed during the 1943-1945 eruption of Usu volcano. Forty-two gas samples were collected from the highest-temperature fumarole, named A-1, from 1954 (800??C) to 1985 (336??C), and from lower-temperature vents. Condensates were collected contemporaneously with the gas samples, and we reanalyzed ten of these samples, mostly from the A-1 vent, for 32 cations and three anions. Modeling using the thermochemical equilibrium program, SOLVGAS, shows that the gas samples are mild disequilibrium mixtures because they: (a) contain unequilibrated sedimentary CH4 and NH3; (b) have unequilibrated meteoric water; or (c) lost CO, either by air oxidation or by absorption by the sodium hydroxide sampling solution. SOLVGAS also enabled us to restore the samples by removing these disequilibrium effects, and to estimate their equilibrium oxygen fugacities and amounts of S2 and CH4. The restored compositions contain > 98% H2O with minor to trace amounts of CO2, H2, HCl, SO2, HF, H2S, CO, S2 and CH4. We used the restored gas and condensate data to test the hypotheses that these time-series compositional data from the dome's fumaroles provide: (1) sufficient major-gas data to analyze long-term degassing trends of the dome's magma-hydrothermal system without the influence of sampling or contamination effects; (2) independent oxygen fugacity-versus-temperature estimates of the Showa-Shinzan dacite; (3) the order of release of trace elements, especially metals, from magma; and (4) useful information for assessing volcanic hazards. The 1954-1985 restored A-1 gas compositions confirm the first hypothesis because they are sufficient to reveal three long-term degassing trends: (1) they became increasingly H2O-rich with time due to the progressive influx of meteoric water into the dome; (2) their C/S and S/Cl ratios decreased dramatically while their Cl/F ratios stayed roughly constant, indicating the progressive outgassing of less soluble components (F ??? Cl > S > C) from the magma reservoir; and (3) their H2O/H2, CO2/CO and H2S/SO2 ratios increased significantly in concert with equilibrium changes expected for the ??? 500??C temperature drop. When plotted against reciprocal temperature, the restored-gas log oxygen fugacities follow a tight linear trend from 800??C to NNO + 2.5 at ??? 400??C. This trend largely disproves the second hypothesis because the oxygen fugacities for the < 800??C restored gases can only be explained by mixing of hot magmatic gases with ??? 350??C steam from superheated meteoric water. But above 800??C this trend intersects the opposing linear trend for other Usu eruptive products, implying a log oxygen fugacity of -11.45 at 902??C for the Showa-Shinzan magma. The time-series trace-element data also disprove the third hypothesis because rock- and incrustation-particle contaminants in the condensates account for most of the trace-element variation. Nonetheless, highly volatile elements like B and As are relatively unaffected by this particle contamination, and they show similar time-series trends as Cl and F. Finally, except for infrequent sampling around the 1977 Usu eruption, the results generally confirm the fourth hypothesis, since the time-series trends for the major gases and selected trace elements indicate that, with time, the system cooled, degassed and was infiltrated by meteoric water, all of which are positive signs that volcanic activity declined over the 31-year history. This study also suggests that second boiling of shallow magma within and possibly beneath the cryptodome sustained magmatic degassing for at least 20 years after emplacement.

Long-term exposure to crystalline silica and risk of heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Yuewei; Rong, Yi; Steenland, Kyle; Christiani, David C; Huang, Xiji; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2014-09-01

The association between crystalline silica exposure and risk of heart disease mortality remains less clear. We investigated a cohort of 42,572 Chinese workers who were potentially exposed to crystalline silica and followed from 1960 to 2003. Cumulative silica exposure was estimated by linking a job-exposure matrix to each person's work history. Low-level silica exposure was defined as never having held a job with an exposure higher than 0.1 mg/m. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) in exposure-response analyses using Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 2846 deaths from heart disease during an average of 35 years follow-up. Positive exposure-response trends were observed for cumulative silica exposure associated with mortality from total heart disease (HRs for increasing quartiles of cumulative silica exposure compared with the unexposed group = 0.89, 1.09, 1.32, 2.10; P for linear trend < 0.001) and pulmonary heart disease (0.92, 1.39, 2.47, 5.46; P for linear trend < 0.001). These positive trends remained among workers with both high- and low-level silica exposure. There was also a positive trend for ischemic heart disease among workers with low-level exposure, with quartile HRs of 1.04, 1.13, 1.52, and 1.60 (P for linear trend < 0.001). Low-level crystalline silica exposure was associated with increased mortality from heart disease, including pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease, whereas high-level exposure mainly increased mortality from pulmonary heart disease. Current permissible exposure limits for crystalline silica in many countries may be insufficient to protect people from deaths due to heart disease.

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Íris M.; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J.

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement. PMID:28484413

Twenty-year trends in cardiovascular risk factors in India and influence of educational status.

PubMed

Gupta, Rajeev; Guptha, Soneil; Gupta, V P; Agrawal, Aachu; Gaur, Kiran; Deedwania, Prakash C

2012-12-01

Urban middle-socioeconomic status (SES) subjects have high burden of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income countries. To determine secular trends in risk factors among this population and to correlate risks with educational status we performed epidemiological studies in India. Five cross-sectional studies were performed in middle-SES urban locations in Jaipur, India from years 1992 to 2010. Cluster sampling was performed. Subjects (men, women) aged 20-59 years evaluated were 712 (459, 253) in 1992-94, 558 (286, 272) in 1999-2001, 374 (179, 195) in 2002-03, 887 (414, 473) in 2004-05, and 530 (324, 206) in 2009-10. Data were obtained by history, anthropometry, and fasting blood glucose and lipids estimation. Response rates varied from 55 to 75%. Mean values and risk factor prevalence were determined. Secular trends were identified using quadratic and log-linear regression and chi-squared for trend. Across the studies, there was high prevalence of overweight, hypertension, and lipid abnormalities. Age- and sex-adjusted trends showed significant increases in mean body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (quadratic and log-linear regression, p < 0.001). Systolic blood pressure (BP) decreased while insignificant changes were observed for waist-hip ratio and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Categorical trends showed increase in overweight and decrease in smoking (p < 0.05); insignificant changes were observed in truncal obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes. Adjustment for educational status attenuated linear trends in BMI and total and LDL cholesterol and accentuated trends in systolic BP, glucose, and HDL cholesterol. There was significant association of an increase in education with decline in smoking and an increase in overweight (two-line regression p < 0.05). In Indian urban middle-SES subjects there is high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Over a 20-year period BMI and overweight increased, smoking and systolic BP decreased, and truncal obesity, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes remained stable. Increasing educational status attenuated trends for systolic BP, glucose and HDL cholesterol, and BMI.

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations.

PubMed

Oliveira, Íris M; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement ( M ageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: HARPS timeseries data for HD41248 (Jenkins+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, J. S.; Tuomi, M.

2017-05-01

We modeled the HARPS radial velocities of HD 42148 by adopting the analysis techniques and the statistical model applied in Tuomi et al. (2014, arXiv:1405.2016). This model contains Keplerian signals, a linear trend, a moving average component with exponential smoothing, and linear correlations with activity indices, namely, BIS, FWHM, and chromospheric activity S index. We applied our statistical model outlined above to the full data set of radial velocities for HD 41248, combining the previously published data in Jenkins et al. (2013ApJ...771...41J) with the newly published data in Santos et al. (2014, J/A+A/566/A35), giving rise to a total time series of 223 HARPS (Mayor et al. 2003Msngr.114...20M) velocities. (1 data file).

Identification of rice supply chain risk to DKI Jakarta through Cipinang primary rice market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiarto, D.; Ariwibowo, A.; Mardianto, I.; Surjasa, D.

2018-01-01

This paper identifies several sources of risks in DKI Jakarta rice supply chain that through Cipinang Primary Rice Market (CPRM). Secondary data from several sources were collected and analysed using pareto chart and time series analysis. Based on the pareto analysis, it was known that there was a change in the order of suppliers whereas in 2011, 80% of the supply came only from Cirebon, Karawang and Bandung (West Java Province). While in 2015 the main source of supply changed to Cirebon, Central Java and Karawang. Linear trend equation using decomposition model for Cirebon and Karawang showed trend of decreasing monthly supply while Central Java had a positive trend. Harvest area of wetland paddy in Cirebon and Karawang showed a negative trend in the last 6 years. The data also showed that West Java Province was the province with the largest rice crop area affected by plant organism attack and drought disaster in 2015. DKI Jakarta had several potential supply chain risks from rice supply, drought risk and pests risk where the province of West Java, which previously could become a major supplier began to require supply assistance from other provinces, especially Central Java.

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

PubMed

Ionides, Edward L; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A

2013-10-03

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

PubMed Central

Ionides, Edward L.; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A.

2013-01-01

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association. PMID:24587843

Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

PubMed Central

von Ruesten, Anne; Steffen, Annika; Floegel, Anna; van der A, Daphne L.; Masala, Giovanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjaer, Jytte; Palli, Domenico; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.; Boeing, Heiner

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower. PMID:22102897

Investigating parameters participating in the infant respiratory control system attractor.

PubMed

Terrill, Philip I; Wilson, Stephen J; Suresh, Sadasivam; Cooper, David M; Dakin, Carolyn

2008-01-01

Theoretically, any participating parameter in a non-linear system represents the dynamics of the whole system. Taken's time delay embedding theory provides the fundamental basis for allowing non-linear analysis to be performed on physiological, time-series data. In practice, only one measurable parameter is required to be measured to convey an accurate representation of the system dynamics. In this paper, the infant respiratory control system is represented using three variables-a digitally sampled respiratory inductive plethysmography waveform, and the derived parameters tidal volume and inter-breath interval time series data. For 14 healthy infants, these data streams were analysed using recurrence plot analysis across one night of sleep. The measured attractor size of these variables followed the same qualitative trends across the nights study. Results suggest that the attractor size measures of the derived IBI and tidal volume are representative surrogates for the raw respiratory waveform. The extent to which the relative attractor sizes of IBI and tidal volume remain constant through changing sleep state could potentially be used to quantify pathology, or maturation of breathing control.

Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berger, Carl F.

A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential…

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data

PubMed Central

Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E.; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. Methods We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. Results 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3-14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14-20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Conclusions Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. PMID:25458783

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend in the south. The downward pattern observed for cohorts born after 1920-1930 in northern, western, and southern regions suggests more favourable trends in coming years, in contrast to the eastern countries where birth-cohort pattern remains upward.

Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Andrew F.; Naylor, Mark; Heap, Michael J.; Main, Ian G.

2011-08-01

Power-law accelerations in the mean rate of strain, earthquakes and other precursors have been widely reported prior to material failure phenomena, including volcanic eruptions, landslides and laboratory deformation experiments, as predicted by several theoretical models. The Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which linearizes the power-law trend, has been routinely used to forecast the failure time in retrospective analyses; however, its performance has never been formally evaluated. Here we use synthetic and real data, recorded in laboratory brittle creep experiments and at volcanoes, to show that the assumptions of the FFM are inconsistent with the error structure of the data, leading to biased and imprecise forecasts. We show that a Generalized Linear Model method provides higher-quality forecasts that converge more accurately to the eventual failure time, accounting for the appropriate error distributions. This approach should be employed in place of the FFM to provide reliable quantitative forecasts and estimate their associated uncertainties.

Comparison of floods non-stationarity detection methods: an Austrian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Non-stationarities in flood regimes have a huge impact in any mid and long term flood management strategy. In particular the estimation of design floods is very sensitive to any kind of flood non-stationarity, as they should be linked to a return period, concept that can be ill defined in a non-stationary context. Therefore it is crucial when analyzing existent flood time series to detect and, where possible, attribute flood non-stationarities to changing hydroclimatic and land-use processes. This works presents the preliminary results of applying different non-stationarity detection methods on annual peak discharges time series over more than 400 gauging stations in Austria. The kind of non-stationarities analyzed include trends (linear and non-linear), breakpoints, clustering beyond stochastic randomness, and detection of flood rich/flood poor periods. Austria presents a large variety of landscapes, elevations and climates that allow us to interpret the spatial patterns obtained with the non-stationarity detection methods in terms of the dominant flood generation mechanisms.

Electrophysiology of Memory-Updating Differs with Age

PubMed Central

Steiner, Genevieve Z.; Gonsalvez, Craig J.; De Blasio, Frances M.; Barry, Robert J.

2016-01-01

In oddball tasks, the P3 component of the event-related potential systematically varies with the time between target stimuli—the target-to-target interval (TTI). Longer TTIs result in larger P3 amplitudes and shorter latencies, and this pattern of results has been linked with working memory-updating processes. Given that working memory and the P3 have both been shown to diminish with age, the current study aimed to determine whether the linear relationship between P3 and TTI is compromised in healthy aging by comparing TTI effects on P3 amplitudes and latencies, and reaction time (RT), in young and older adults. Older adults were found to have an overall reduction in P3 amplitudes, longer latencies, an anterior shift in topography, a trend toward slower RTs, and a flatter linear relationship between P3 and TTI than young adults. Results suggest that the ability to maintain templates in working memory required for stimulus categorization decreases with age, and that as a result, neural compensatory mechanisms are employed. PMID:27378908

Electrophysiology of Memory-Updating Differs with Age.

PubMed

Steiner, Genevieve Z; Gonsalvez, Craig J; De Blasio, Frances M; Barry, Robert J

2016-01-01

In oddball tasks, the P3 component of the event-related potential systematically varies with the time between target stimuli-the target-to-target interval (TTI). Longer TTIs result in larger P3 amplitudes and shorter latencies, and this pattern of results has been linked with working memory-updating processes. Given that working memory and the P3 have both been shown to diminish with age, the current study aimed to determine whether the linear relationship between P3 and TTI is compromised in healthy aging by comparing TTI effects on P3 amplitudes and latencies, and reaction time (RT), in young and older adults. Older adults were found to have an overall reduction in P3 amplitudes, longer latencies, an anterior shift in topography, a trend toward slower RTs, and a flatter linear relationship between P3 and TTI than young adults. Results suggest that the ability to maintain templates in working memory required for stimulus categorization decreases with age, and that as a result, neural compensatory mechanisms are employed.

Modeling Diverse Pathways to Age Progressive Volcanism in Subduction Zones.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kincaid, C. R.; Szwaja, S.; Sylvia, R. T.; Druken, K. A.

2015-12-01

One of the best, and most challenging clues to unraveling mantle circulation patterns in subduction zones comes in the form of age progressive volcanic and geochemical trends. Hard fought geological data from many subduction zones, like Tonga-Lau, the Cascades and Costa-Rica/Nicaragua, reveal striking temporal patterns used in defining mantle flow directions and rates. We summarize results from laboratory subduction models showing a range in circulation and thermal-chemical transport processes. These interaction styles are capable of producing such trends, often reflecting apparent instead of actual mantle velocities. Lab experiments use a glucose working fluid to represent Earth's upper mantle and kinematically driven plates to produce a range in slab sinking and related wedge transport patterns. Kinematic forcing assumes most of the super-adiabatic temperature gradient available to drive major downwellings is in the tabular slabs. Moreover, sinking styles for fully dynamic subduction depend on many complicating factors that are only poorly understood and which can vary widely even for repeated parameter combinations. Kinematic models have the benefit of precise, repeatable control of slab motions and wedge flow responses. Results generated with these techniques show the evolution of near-surface thermal-chemical-rheological heterogeneities leads to age progressive surface expressions in a variety of ways. One set of experiments shows that rollback and back-arc extension combine to produce distinct modes of linear, age progressive melt delivery to the surface through a) erosion of the rheological boundary layer beneath the overriding plate, and deformation and redistribution of both b) mantle residuum produced from decompression melting and c) formerly active, buoyant plumes. Additional experiments consider buoyant diapirs rising in a wedge under the influence of rollback, back-arc spreading and slab-gaps. Strongly deflected diapirs, experiencing variable rise rates, also commonly surface as linear, age progressive tracks. Applying these results to systems like the Cascades and Tonga-Lau suggest there are multiple ways to produce timing trends due both to linear flows and waves of heterogeneity obliquely impacting surface plates.

Spatial heterogeneity in statistical power to detect changes in lake area in Alaskan National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicol, Samuel; Roach, Jennifer K.; Griffith, Brad

2013-01-01

Over the past 50 years, the number and size of high-latitude lakes have decreased throughout many regions; however, individual lake trends have been variable in direction and magnitude. This spatial heterogeneity in lake change makes statistical detection of temporal trends challenging, particularly in small analysis areas where weak trends are difficult to separate from inter- and intra-annual variability. Factors affecting trend detection include inherent variability, trend magnitude, and sample size. In this paper, we investigated how the statistical power to detect average linear trends in lake size of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 %/year was affected by the size of the analysis area and the number of years of monitoring in National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. We estimated power for large (930–4,560 sq km) study areas within refuges and for 2.6, 12.9, and 25.9 sq km cells nested within study areas over temporal extents of 4–50 years. We found that: (1) trends in study areas could be detected within 5–15 years, (2) trends smaller than 2.0 %/year would take >50 years to detect in cells within study areas, and (3) there was substantial spatial variation in the time required to detect change among cells. Power was particularly low in the smallest cells which typically had the fewest lakes. Because small but ecologically meaningful trends may take decades to detect, early establishment of long-term monitoring will enhance power to detect change. Our results have broad applicability and our method is useful for any study involving change detection among variable spatial and temporal extents.

Analysis of satellite precipitation over East Africa during last decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattani, Elsa; Wenhaji Ndomeni, Claudine; Merino, Andrés; Levizzani, Vincenzo

2016-04-01

Daily accumulated precipitation time series from satellite retrieval algorithms (e.g., ARC2 and TAMSAT) are exploited to extract the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA - 5°S-20°N, 28°E-52°E) precipitation during last decades (1983-2013). The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to precipitation time series to investigate the spatial and temporal variability in particular for October-November-December referred to as the short rain season. Moreover, the connection among EA's precipitation, sea surface temperature, and soil moisture is analyzed through the correlation with the dominant EOF modes of variability. Preliminary results concern the first two EOF's modes for the ARC2 data set. EOF1 is characterized by an inter-annual variability and a positive correlation between precipitation and El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole mode, and soil moisture, while EOF2 shows a dipole structure of spatial variability associated with a longer scale temporal variability. This second dominant mode is mostly linked to sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. Further analyses are carried out by computing the time series of the joint CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/index.shtml), i.e. RX1day, RX5day, CDD, CDD, CWD, SDII, PRCPTOT, R10, R20. The purpose is to identify the occurrenes of extreme events (droughts and floods) and extract precipitation temporal variation by trend analysis (Mann-Kendall technique). Results for the ARC2 data set demonstrate the existence of a dipole spatial pattern in the linear trend of the time series of PRCPTOT (annual precipitation considering days with a rain rate > 1 mm) and SDII (average precipitation on wet days over a year). A negative trend is mainly present over West Ethiopia and Sudan, whereas a positive trend is exhibited over East Ethiopia and Somalia. CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and CWD (maximum number of consecutive wet days) time series do not exhibit a similar behavior and trends are generally weaker with a lower significance level with respect to PRCPTOT and SDII.

Identification of geostructures of continental crust, particularly as they relate to mineral-resource evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gryc, G. (Principal Investigator); Lathram, E. H.

1972-01-01

The authors have identified the following significant results. As a precursor to the ERTS-1 investigation, the spatial relationship of geostructures seen on Nimbus IDCS photographs to the distribution of mineralized areas in Alaska and western Canada was analyzed to determine the possible metallogenic significance of the geostructures. In Canada, mercury and porphyry molybdenum deposits are closely associated with strong northwest-trending fault systems; the development of mineralized regions seems related to major crustal zones or fractures trending southwestward across the Cordillera from the Precambrian shield. In Alaska, comparison of the northeast- and northwest-trending set of possible crustal structures shown on the Nimbus photo, with the distribution of known mineral deposits suggests a similar relationship. The mineralized region of massive sulfides in Prince William Sound and upper Copper River areas and of porphyry coppers in the Nabesna area forms a broad northeast-trending belt possibly related to the Minto Arch on the Shield. The belt of metalliferous deposits in the western Alaska Range follows a comparable northeast trend. Mercury deposits, suggested by many to be fault-controlled, together with most tin and tungsten deposits, occupy a northeast-trending belt between the Bristol Bay-Mackenzie Bay linear and extensions of a linear along the lower Yukon River. This belt intersects the northwest-trending Canadian belt of similar deposits in the Fairbanks area.

The Vegetation Trends and Drivers in Beijing-Tianjing Region from 1982 TO 2013 Based on Time Series Gimms NDVI3g

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Tian, H.; Wang, X.; Li, H.; He, Y.

2018-04-01

Vegetation plays a leading role in ecosystems. Plant communities are the main components of ecosystems. Green plants in ecosystems are the primary producers, and they provide the living organic matter for the survival of other organisms. The dynamics of most landscapes are driven by both natural processes and human activities. In this study, the growing season GIMMS NDVI3g and climatic data were used to analyse the vegetation trends and drivers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1982 to 2013. Result shows that, the vegetation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows overall restoration and partial degradation trend. The significant restoration region accounts for 61.5 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while the significant degradation region accounts for 2.1 %. The dominant climatic factor for time series NDVI were analyzed using the multi-linear regression model. Vegetation growth in 17.9 % of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is dominated by temperature, 35.5 % is dominated by precipitation, and 11.68 % is dominated by solar radiance. Human activities play important role for vegetation restoration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, where the large scale forest restoration programs are the main human activities, such as the three-north shelterbelt construction project, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sandstorm source control project and grain for green projects.

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Meier, Walter N

2018-05-28

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raggad, Bechir

2018-05-01

In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

Urinary and Dietary Analysis of 18,470 Bangladeshis Reveal a Correlation of Rice Consumption with Arsenic Exposure and Toxicity

PubMed Central

Melkonian, Stephanie; Argos, Maria; Hall, Megan N.; Chen, Yu; Parvez, Faruque; Pierce, Brandon; Cao, Hongyuan; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Slavcovich, Vesna; Gamble, Mary; Haris, Parvez I.; Graziano, Joseph H.; Ahsan, Habibul

2013-01-01

Background We utilized data from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Araihazar, Bangladesh, to evaluate the association of steamed rice consumption with urinary total arsenic concentration and arsenical skin lesions in the overall study cohort (N=18,470) and in a subset with available urinary arsenic metabolite data (N=4,517). Methods General linear models with standardized beta coefficients were used to estimate associations between steamed rice consumption and urinary total arsenic concentration and urinary arsenic metabolites. Logistic regression models were used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between rice intake and prevalent skin lesions at baseline. Discrete time hazard models were used to estimate discrete time (HRs) ratios and their 95% CIs for the associations between rice intake and incident skin lesions. Results Steamed rice consumption was positively associated with creatinine-adjusted urinary total arsenic (β=0.041, 95% CI: 0.032-0.051) and urinary total arsenic with statistical adjustment for creatinine in the model (β=0.043, 95% CI: 0.032-0.053). Additionally, we observed a significant trend in skin lesion prevalence (P-trend=0.007) and a moderate trend in skin lesion incidence (P-trend=0.07) associated with increased intake of steamed rice. Conclusions This study suggests that rice intake may be a source of arsenic exposure beyond drinking water. PMID:24260455

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

PubMed

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Quicker, faster, darker: Changes in Hollywood film over 75 years

PubMed Central

Cutting, James E; Brunick, Kaitlin L; DeLong, Jordan E; Iricinschi, Catalina; Candan, Ayse

2011-01-01

We measured 160 English-language films released from 1935 to 2010 and found four changes. First, shot lengths have gotten shorter, a trend also reported by others. Second, contemporary films have more motion and movement than earlier films. Third, in contemporary films shorter shots also have proportionately more motion than longer shots, whereas there is no such relation in older films. And finally films have gotten darker. That is, the mean luminance value of frames across the length of a film has decreased over time. We discuss psychological effects associated with these four changes and suggest that all four linear trends have a single cause: Filmmakers have incrementally tried to exercise more control over the attention of filmgoers. We suggest these changes are signatures of the evolution of popular film; they do not reflect changes in film style. PMID:23145246

Detecting trends in academic research from a citation network using network representation learning

PubMed Central

Mori, Junichiro; Ochi, Masanao; Sakata, Ichiro

2018-01-01

Several network features and information retrieval methods have been proposed to elucidate the structure of citation networks and to detect important nodes. However, it is difficult to retrieve information related to trends in an academic field and to detect cutting-edge areas from the citation network. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that detects the trend as the growth direction of a citation network using network representation learning(NRL). We presume that the linear growth of citation network in latent space obtained by NRL is the result of the iterative edge additional process of a citation network. On APS datasets and papers of some domains of the Web of Science, we confirm the existence of trends by observing that an academic field grows in a specific direction linearly in latent space. Next, we calculate each node’s degree of trend-following as an indicator called the intrinsic publication year (IPY). As a result, there is a correlation between the indicator and the number of future citations. Furthermore, a word frequently used in the abstracts of cutting-edge papers (high-IPY paper) is likely to be used often in future publications. These results confirm the validity of the detected trend for predicting citation network growth. PMID:29782521

The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

PubMed Central

Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520

The trend odds model for ordinal data.

PubMed

Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

2013-06-15

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

2017-04-01

Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger-)causes vegetation dynamics in most regions globally. More specifically, water availability is the most dominant vegetation driver, being the dominant vegetation driver in 54% of the vegetated surface. Furthermore, our results show that precipitation and soil moisture have prolonged impacts on vegetation in semiarid regions, with up to 10% of additional explained variance on the vegetation dynamics occurring three months later. Finally, hydro-climatic extremes seem to have a remarkable impact on vegetation, since they also explain up to 10% of additional variance of vegetation in certain regions despite their infrequent occurrence. References [1] Papagiannopoulou, C., Miralles, D. G., Verhoest, N. E. C., Dorigo, W. A., and Waegeman, W.: A non-linear Granger causality framework to investigate climate-vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-266, in review, 2016.

Organometallic exposure dependence on organic–inorganic hybrid material formation in polyethylene terephthalate and polyamide 6 polymer fibers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akyildiz, Halil I.; Jur, Jesse S., E-mail: jsjur@ncsu.edu

2015-03-15

The effect of exposure conditions and surface area on hybrid material formation during sequential vapor infiltrations of trimethylaluminum (TMA) into polyamide 6 (PA6) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) fibers is investigated. Mass gain of the fabric samples after infiltration was examined to elucidate the reaction extent with increasing number of sequential TMA single exposures, defined as the times for a TMA dose and a hold period. An interdependent relationship between dosing time and holding time on the hybrid material formation is observed for TMA exposure PET, exhibited as a linear trend between the mass gain and total exposure (dose time ×more » hold time × number of sequential exposures). Deviation from this linear relationship is only observed under very long dose or hold times. In comparison, amount of hybrid material formed during sequential exposures to PA6 fibers is found to be highly dependent on amount of TMA dosed. Increasing the surface area of the fiber by altering its cross-sectional dimension is shown to have little on the reaction behavior but does allow for improved diffusion of the TMA into the fiber. This work allows for the projection of exposure parameters necessary for future high-throughput hybrid modifications to polymer materials.« less

Has Asthma Medication Use Caught Up With the Evidence?: A 12-Year Population-Based Study of Trends.

PubMed

Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Tavakoli, Hamid; Lynd, Larry; FitzGerald, J Mark

2017-03-01

The importance of balance between controller and reliever medications in asthma is recognized. However, to our knowledge, the extent to which real-world practice has caught up with evidence-based guidelines has not been studied. This was a retrospective cohort study of individuals 15 to 67 years of age who satisfied a validated case definition of asthma in the administrative health database of British Columbia, Canada between 2002 and 2013. Each patient-year was assessed for inappropriate and excessive prescription of short-acting beta-agonists (SABAs) and the balance between controller and reliever medications. Trends on three time axes were evaluated: calendar time, time course of asthma, and age. Poisson regression was used to test for a linear trend. Three hundred fifty-six thousand, one hundred twelve patients (56.5% female sex; mean age, 30.5 years) contributed 2.6 million patient-years. In 7.3% of the patient-years, SABAs were prescribed inappropriately. This proportion dropped by a relative rate of 5.3% per year (P < .001). In the first year of asthma, 6.3% of patients had indicators of inappropriate SABA use, which dropped within the first 3 years but increased thereafter. Excessive prescription of SABAs increased rapidly during the time course of asthma (change of 23.3% per year; P < .001) and by age (change of 5.1% per year; P < .001). Despite overwhelming evidence regarding the risks, inappropriate prescription for SABAs was prevalent. Excessive SABA use might explain high asthma mortality in older patients. Inappropriate prescriptions declined over the study period but increased over the time course of asthma. These trends might have contributed to the declining asthma hospitalization rates in British Columbia, but there remain gaps in care and potential for improvement in asthma outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Outcome after introduction of laparoscopic appendectomy in children: A cohort study.

PubMed

Svensson, Jan F; Patkova, Barbora; Almström, Markus; Eaton, Simon; Wester, Tomas

2016-03-01

Acute appendicitis in children is common and the optimal treatment modality is still debated, even if recent data suggest that laparoscopic surgery may result in shorter postoperative length of stay without an increased number of complications. The aim of the study was to compare the outcome of open and laparoscopic appendectomies during a transition period. This was a retrospective cohort study with prospectively collected data. All patients who underwent an operation for suspected appendicitis at the Astrid Lindgren Children's Hospital in Stockholm between 2006 and 2010 were included in the study. 1745 children were included in this study, of whom 1010 had a laparoscopic intervention. There were no significant differences in the rate of postoperative abscesses, wound infections, readmissions or reoperations between the two groups. The median operating time was longer for laparoscopic appendectomy than for open appendectomy, 51 vs. 37minutes (p<0.05). The postoperative length of stay was similar in the two groups. A simple comparison between the groups suggested that laparoscopic appendectomy had a shorter median postoperative length of stay, 43 vs. 57hours (p<0.05). However, there was a trend in time for a shorter postoperative length of stay, and a trend for more of the procedures to be performed laparoscopically over time so on regression analysis, the apparent decrease in length of stay with laparoscopy could be ascribed to the general trend toward decreased length of stay over time, with no specific additional effect of laparoscopy. Our data show no difference in outcome between open and laparoscopic surgery for acute appendicitis in children in regard of complications. The initial assumption that the patients treated with laparoscopic surgery had a shorter postoperative stay was not confirmed with linear regression, which showed that the assumed difference was due only to a trend toward shorter postoperative length of stay over time, regardless of the surgical intervention. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of PATMOS-x AVHRR Lake Surface Temperatures in the Laurentian Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, C.; Heidinger, A. K.; Ackerman, S. A.; McIntyre, P. B.

2017-12-01

A thirty-four year lake surface water temperature (LSWT) time series over the North American Great Lakes was extracted from NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC). The time series was cloud-cleared using the NOAA Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended (PATMOS-x) climate dataset and the Clouds from AVHRR Extended System (CLAVR-x) processing system, and was subsampled to a regular 0.05° grid. LSWT coefficients for each AVHRR platform were fit to NOAA National Data Buoy Center buoys with historical records spanning 1982 to 2016. Satellite to buoy matchups indicate an RMSE of 0.72 K for the entire time series across all five lakes. An empirically fit diurnal correction was applied to correct for orbital drift and varying observation times of NOAA-7,9,11,12,14-19, Metop-1 and Metop-2. Ordinary linear regression slopes on monthly mean LSWT show strong spatial heterogeneity in the long-term LSWT trends both within each lake and between lakes. Differences in long-term trends using nighttime only, daytime only, and both day and night are examined. Additionally, a coastal upwelling signal can be identified from the time series along with the indication of an earlier onset of spring stratification.

A reassessment of the Archean-Mesoproterozoic tectonic development of the southeastern Chhattisgarh Basin, Central India through detailed aeromagnetic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridhar, M.; Ramesh Babu, V.; Markandeyulu, A.; Raju, B. V. S. N.; Chaturvedi, A. K.; Roy, M. K.

2017-08-01

We constrained the geological framework over polydeformed Paleoproterozoic Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and addressed the tectonic evolution of Singhora basin in the fringes of Bastar Craton, central India by utilizing aeromagnetic data interpretation, 2.5D forward modelling and 3D magnetic susceptibility inversions. The Sonakhan Greenstone Belt exposes volcano-sedimentary sequences of the Sonakhan Group within NNW-SSE to NW-SE trending linear belts surrounded by granite gneisses, which are unconformably overlain by sedimentary rocks of Chhattisgarh Basin. The orientations of aeromagnetic anomalies are coincident with geological trends and appear to correlate with lithology and geologic structure. Regional magnetic anomalies and lineaments reveal both NNW-SSE and NE-SW trends. Prominent E-W trending linear, high amplitude magnetic anomalies are interpreted as the Trans-Chhattisgarh Aeromagnetic Lineament (TCAL). NW-SE trending aeromagnetic signatures related to Sonakhan Greenstone Belt extends below the Singhora sedimentary rocks and forms the basement in the west. The analysis suggests that TCAL is a block fault with northern block down-thrown and affected the basement rocks comprising the Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and Samblapur Granitoids. The episode of faulting represented by the TCAL is pre-Singhora sedimentation and played a vital role in basin evolution. The basement configuration image generated by estimates of depth to magnetic basement suggests a complex pattern of NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending depressions separated by a linear N-S trending basement ridge. It is inferred from the 3D magnetic susceptibility inversion that the thickness of sediments is more towards the eastern basin margin and the N-S ridge is a manifestation of post sedimentary faulting. Results of 2.5D modelling of a WNW-ESE profile across the Singhora Basin combined with results from 3D inversion suggest suggests the basin subsidence was controlled by NE-SW trending regional faults in an active system. The basin geometry evolved by E-W block faulting overprinted by NE-SW trending pre- to syn-depositional normal faults generating NE-SW depression, which are affected by N-S trend post-sedimentary faulting. Though the present work relates the basin evolution with the initiation of rift basin, it warrants further work to establish the deformation within the basin pertaining to the proximal thrust and uplift along the craton fringe.

Multivariate detrending of fMRI signal drifts for real-time multiclass pattern classification.

PubMed

Lee, Dongha; Jang, Changwon; Park, Hae-Jeong

2015-03-01

Signal drift in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is an unavoidable artifact that limits classification performance in multi-voxel pattern analysis of fMRI. As conventional methods to reduce signal drift, global demeaning or proportional scaling disregards regional variations of drift, whereas voxel-wise univariate detrending is too sensitive to noisy fluctuations. To overcome these drawbacks, we propose a multivariate real-time detrending method for multiclass classification that involves spatial demeaning at each scan and the recursive detrending of drifts in the classifier outputs driven by a multiclass linear support vector machine. Experiments using binary and multiclass data showed that the linear trend estimation of the classifier output drift for each class (a weighted sum of drifts in the class-specific voxels) was more robust against voxel-wise artifacts that lead to inconsistent spatial patterns and the effect of online processing than voxel-wise detrending. The classification performance of the proposed method was significantly better, especially for multiclass data, than that of voxel-wise linear detrending, global demeaning, and classifier output detrending without demeaning. We concluded that the multivariate approach using classifier output detrending of fMRI signals with spatial demeaning preserves spatial patterns, is less sensitive than conventional methods to sample size, and increases classification performance, which is a useful feature for real-time fMRI classification. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

Exploring the effects of transfers and readmissions on trends in population counts of hospital admissions for coronary heart disease: a Western Australian data linkage study.

PubMed

Lopez, Derrick; Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael S T; Briffa, Thomas G; Preen, David B; Hung, Joseph; Beilby, John; Mathur, Sushma; Reynolds, Anna; Sanfilippo, Frank M

2017-11-17

To develop a method for categorising coronary heart disease (CHD) subtype in linked data accounting for different CHD diagnoses across records, and to compare hospital admission numbers and ratios of unlinked versus linked data for each CHD subtype over time, and across age groups and sex. Cohort study. Person-linked hospital administrative data covering all admissions for CHD in Western Australia from 1988 to 2013. Ratios of (1) unlinked admission counts to contiguous admission (CA) counts (accounting for transfers), and (2) 28-day episode counts (accounting for transfers and readmissions) to CA counts stratified by CHD subtype, sex and age group. In all CHD subtypes, the ratios changed in a linear or quadratic fashion over time and the coefficients of the trend term differed across CHD subtypes. Furthermore, for many CHD subtypes the ratios also differed by age group and sex. For example, in women aged 35-54 years, the ratio of unlinked to CA counts for non-ST elevation myocardial infarction admissions in 2000 was 1.10, and this increased in a linear fashion to 1.30 in 2013, representing an annual increase of 0.0148. The use of unlinked counts in epidemiological estimates of CHD hospitalisations overestimates CHD counts. The CA and 28-day episode counts are more aligned with epidemiological studies of CHD. The degree of overestimation of counts using only unlinked counts varies in a complex manner with CHD subtype, time, sex and age group, and it is not possible to apply a simple correction factor to counts obtained from unlinked data. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Moored observations of the Deep Western Boundary Current in the NW Atlantic: 2004-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toole, John M.; Andres, Magdalena; Le Bras, Isabela A.; Joyce, Terrence M.; McCartney, Michael S.

2017-09-01

A moored array spanning the continental slope southeast of Cape Cod sampled the equatorward-flowing Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) for a 10 year period: May 2004 to May 2014. Daily profiles of subinertial velocity, temperature, salinity, and neutral density are constructed for each mooring site and cross-line DWBC transport time series are derived for specified water mass layers. Time-averaged transports based on daily estimates of the flow and density fields in Stream coordinates are contrasted with those derived from the Eulerian-mean flow field, modes of DWBC transport variability are investigated through compositing, and comparisons are made to transport estimates for other latitudes. Integrating the daily velocity estimates over the neutral density range of 27.8-28.125 kg/m3 (encompassing Labrador Sea and Overflow Water layers), a mean equatorward DWBC transport of 22.8 × 106 ± 1.9 × 106 m3/s is obtained. Notably, a statistically significant trend of decreasing equatorward transport is observed in several of the DWBC components as well as the current as a whole. The largest linear change (a 4% decrease per year) is seen in the layer of Labrador Sea Water that was renewed by deep convection in the early 1990s whose transport fell from 9.0 × 106 m3/s at the beginning of the field program to 5.8 × 106 m3/s at its end. The corresponding linear fit to the combined Labrador Sea and Overflow Water DWBC transport decreases from 26.4 × 106 to 19.1 × 106 m3/s. In contrast, no long-term trend is observed in upper ocean Slope Water transport. These trends are discussed in the context of decadal observations of the North Atlantic circulation, and subpolar air-sea interaction/water mass transformation.

Know your market: use of online query tools to quantify trends in patient information-seeking behavior for varicose vein treatment.

PubMed

Harsha, Asheesh K; Schmitt, J Eric; Stavropoulos, S William

2014-01-01

To analyze Internet search data to characterize the temporal and geographic interest of Internet users in the United States in varicose vein treatment. From January 1, 2004, to September 1, 2012, the Google Trends tool was used to analyze query data for "varicose vein treatment" to identify individuals seeking treatment information for varicose veins. The term "varicose vein treatment" returned a search volume index (SVI), representing the search frequency relative to the total search volume during a specific time interval and region. Linear regression analysis and Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance were employed to characterize search results. Search traffic for varicose vein treatment increased by 520% over the 104-month study period. There was an annual mean increase of 28% (range, -18%-100%; standard deviation [SD], 35%), with a statistically significant linear increase in average yearly SVI over time (R(2) = 0.94, P < .0001). All years showed positive growth in mean SVI except for 2008 (18% decrease). There were statistically significant differences in SVI by month (Kruskal-Wallis, P < .0001) with significantly higher mean SVI compared with other months in May (190% increase; range, 26%-670%; SD, 15%) and June (209% increase; range, 35%-700%; SD, 20%). The southern United States showed significantly higher search traffic than all other regions (Tukey-Kramer, P < .00001). There have been significant increases in Internet search traffic related to varicose vein treatment in the past 8 years. Reflected in this trend is an annual peak in search traffic in the late spring months with an overall geographic bias toward southern states. Rigorous analysis of Internet search queries for medical procedures may prove useful to guide the efficient use of limited resources and marketing dollars. © 2013 The Society of Interventional Radiology Published by SIR All rights reserved.

Stochastic approaches for time series forecasting of boron: a case study of Western Turkey.

PubMed

Durdu, Omer Faruk

2010-10-01

In the present study, a seasonal and non-seasonal prediction of boron concentrations time series data for the period of 1996-2004 from Büyük Menderes river in western Turkey are addressed by means of linear stochastic models. The methodology presented here is to develop adequate linear stochastic models known as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to predict boron content in the Büyük Menderes catchment. Initially, the Box-Whisker plots and Kendall's tau test are used to identify the trends during the study period. The measurements locations do not show significant overall trend in boron concentrations, though marginal increasing and decreasing trends are observed for certain periods at some locations. ARIMA modeling approach involves the following three steps: model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking. In the model identification step, considering the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) results of boron data series, different ARIMA models are identified. The model gives the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) is selected as the best-fit model. The parameter estimation step indicates that the estimated model parameters are significantly different from zero. The diagnostic check step is applied to the residuals of the selected ARIMA models and the results indicate that the residuals are independent, normally distributed, and homoscadastic. For the model validation purposes, the predicted results using the best ARIMA models are compared to the observed data. The predicted data show reasonably good agreement with the actual data. The comparison of the mean and variance of 3-year (2002-2004) observed data vs predicted data from the selected best models show that the boron model from ARIMA modeling approaches could be used in a safe manner since the predicted values from these models preserve the basic statistics of observed data in terms of mean. The ARIMA modeling approach is recommended for predicting boron concentration series of a river.

Albumin, bilirubin, uric acid and cancer risk: results from a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Graf, Mirja E; Schübel, Ruth; Freisling, Heinz; Johnson, Theron; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-11-07

It has long been proposed that albumin, bilirubin and uric acid may inhibit cancer development due to their anti-oxidative properties. However, there is a lack of population-based studies on blood levels of these molecules and cancer risk. Associations between pre-diagnostic serum albumin, bilirubin and uric acid and the risks of common cancers as well as cancer death in the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. A case-cohort sample including a random subcohort (n=2739) and all incident cases of breast (n=627), prostate (n=554), colorectal (n=256), and lung cancer (n=195) as well as cancer death (n=761) that occurred between baseline (1994-1998) and 2009 was used. Albumin levels were inversely associated with breast cancer risk (hazard ratio Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1 (95% CI): 0.71 (0.51, 0.99), P linear trend =0.004) and overall cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.64 (0.48, 0.86), P linear trend <0.001) after multivariable adjustment. Uric acid levels were also inversely associated with breast cancer risk (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.72 (0.53, 0.99), P linear trend =0.043) and cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.75 (0.58, 0.98), P linear trend =0.09). There were no significant associations between albumin or uric acid and prostate, lung and colorectal cancer. Serum bilirubin was not associated with any cancer end point. The present findings indicate that higher levels of albumin and uric acid are related to lower risks of breast cancer and cancer mortality. Further studies are needed to assess whether the observed associations are causal.

Internet search trends analysis tools can provide real-time data on kidney stone disease in the United States.

PubMed

Willard, Scott D; Nguyen, Mike M

2013-01-01

To evaluate the utility of using Internet search trends data to estimate kidney stone occurrence and understand the priorities of patients with kidney stones. Internet search trends data represent a unique resource for monitoring population self-reported illness and health information-seeking behavior. The Google Insights for Search analysis tool was used to study searches related to kidney stones, with each search term returning a search volume index (SVI) according to the search frequency relative to the total search volume. SVIs for the term, "kidney stones," were compiled by location and time parameters and compared with the published weather and stone prevalence data. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the association of the search interest score with known epidemiologic variations in kidney stone disease, including latitude, temperature, season, and state. The frequency of the related search terms was categorized by theme and qualitatively analyzed. The SVI correlated significantly with established kidney stone epidemiologic predictors. The SVI correlated with the state latitude (R-squared=0.25; P<.001), the state mean annual temperature (R-squared=0.24; P<.001), and state combined sex prevalence (R-squared=0.25; P<.001). Female prevalence correlated more strongly than did male prevalence (R-squared=0.37; P<.001, and R-squared=0.17; P=.003, respectively). The national SVI correlated strongly with the average U.S. temperature by month (R-squared=0.54; P=.007). The search term ranking suggested that Internet users are most interested in the diagnosis, followed by etiology, infections, and treatment. Geographic and temporal variability in kidney stone disease appear to be accurately reflected in Internet search trends data. Internet search trends data might have broader applications for epidemiologic and urologic research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in dietary supplement prescriptions of United States military service members suggest a decrease in pyridoxine and increase in vitamin D supplements from 2005 to 2013.

PubMed

Knapik, Joseph J; T Jean, Rosenie; Austin, Krista G; Steelman, Ryan A; Gannon, Julia; Farina, Emily K; Lieberman, Harris R

2016-10-01

Dietary supplements (DSs) can be obtained over-the-counter but can also be prescribed by health-care providers for therapeutic reasons. Few studies have documented this later source despite the fact that 79% of physicians and 82% of nurses have recommended DSs to patients. This investigation assessed prevalence and temporal trends in oral DS prescriptions filled by all United States service members (SMs) from 2005 to 2013 (n = 1 427 080 ± 22 139, mean ± standard deviation (SD)/y). We hypothesize that there would be temporal variations in specific types of DSs. Data obtained from Department of Defense Pharmacy Data Transaction System were grouped by American Hospital Formulary System pharmacologic-therapeutic classifications and prevalence examined over time. About 11% of SMs filled one or more DS prescriptions of 235 180 ± 4926 (mean ± SD) prescriptions/y over the 9-year period. Curve-fitting techniques indicated significant linear declines over time for multivitamins (P = .004), iron preparations (P < .001), antacids (P < .001), and vitamin B and B complex vitamins (P < .001). There were significant quadratic trends indicating a rise in early years followed by a leveling off in later years for replacement preparations (P < .001) and vitamin C (P < .001). There were significant quadratic trends (P < .001) for vitamin E indicating a decline in early years and leveling off in later years, and vitamin D indicating little change in early years followed by a large rise subsequently (P < .001). This study identified temporal trends in specific DS categories that may be associated with changing perceptions of prescribers and/or patients of the appropriate roles of DSs in medicine and public health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Trends in health complaints from 2002 to 2010 in 34 countries and their association with health behaviours and social context factors at individual and macro-level.

PubMed

Ottová-Jordan, Veronika; Smith, Otto R F; Augustine, Lilly; Gobina, Inese; Rathmann, Katharina; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Mazur, Joanna; Välimaa, Raili; Cavallo, Franco; Jericek Klanscek, Helena; Vollebergh, Wilma; Meilstrup, Charlotte; Richter, Matthias; Moor, Irene; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike

2015-04-01

This article describes trends and stability over time in health complaints in adolescents from 2002 to 2010 and investigates associations between health complaints, behavioural and social contextual factors at individual level and economic factors at macro-level. Comprising N = 510 876 11-, 13- and 15-year-old children and adolescents in Europe, North America and Israel, data came from three survey cycles of the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study. Age- and gender-adjusted trends in health complaints were examined in each country by means of linear regression. By using the country as the random effects variable, we tested to what extent individual and contextual variables were associated with health complaints. Significant associations are stronger for individual level determinants (e.g. being bullied, smoking) than for determinants at macro-level (e.g. GDP, Gini), as can be seen by the small effect sizes (less than 5% for different trends). Health complaints are fairly stable over time in most countries, and no clear international trend in health complaints can be observed between 2002 and 2010. The most prominent stable determinants were being female, being bullied, school pressure and smoking. Factors associated with health complaints are more related to the proximal environment than to distal macro-level factors. This points towards intensifying targeted interventions, (e.g. for bullying) and also targeting specific risk groups. The comparably small effect size at country-level indicates that country-level factors have an impact on health and should not be ignored. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

O3 variability/trends in the troposphere from IASI observations in 2008-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wespes, C.; Hurtmans, D.; Clerbaux, C.; Pierre-Francois, C.

2017-12-01

In this study, we describe the recent changes in the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns (TOCs) measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) onboard the Metop satellites during the first ten years of the IASI operation (2008-2017). The instrument provides a unique dataset of vertically-resolved O3 profiles with a twice daily global coverage and a fairly good vertical resolution allowing us to monitor the year-to-year variability in the troposphere. The retrievals are performed using the FORLI software, a fast radiative transfer model based on the optimal estimation method, set up for near real time and large scale processing of IASI data. We differentiate trend characteristics from the seasonal and non-seasonal O3 variations captured by IASI in the troposphere by applying appropriate annual and seasonal multivariate regression models, which include important geophysical drivers of O3 variation (e.g. quasi biennial oscillations - QBO, El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation-NAO) and a linear trend term, on time series of spatially gridded averaged O3. The performances of the regression models (annual vs seasonal) are first investigated. Given the large contribution of the interannual variability, we will then describe the effects of the main contributing O3 proxies (e.g. positive - or negatives - ENSO indexes measured during moderate to intense El Niño - or La Niña - episodes in the tropics) in addition to the adjusted O3 trend patterns. A special focus will be given over the Northern Hemisphere which is characterized by decreasing O3 precursor emissions (mainly over Europe and the US). FORLI O3-CO correlations patterns will also be discussed to evaluate the continental influence on the tropospheric O3 trends.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

2014-01-01

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Landsat analysis for uranium exploration in Northeast Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Keenan

1983-01-01

No uranium deposits are known in the Trabzon, Turkey region, and consequently, exploration criteria have not been defined. Nonetheless, by analogy with uranium deposits studied elsewhere, exploration guides are suggested to include dense concentrations of linear features, lineaments -- especially with northwest trend, acidic plutonic rocks, and alteration indicated by limonite. A suite of digitally processed images of a single Landsat scene served as the image base for mapping 3,376 linear features. Analysis of the linear feature data yielded two statistically significant trends, which in turn defined two sets of strong lineaments. Color composite images were used to map acidic plutonic rocks and areas of surficial limonitic materials. The Landsat interpretation yielded a map of these exploration guides that may be used to evaluate relative uranium potential. One area in particular shows a high coincidence of favorable indicators.

Weight misperception and disordered weight control behaviors among U.S. high school students with overweight and obesity: Associations and trends, 1999-2013.

PubMed

Hazzard, Vivienne M; Hahn, Samantha L; Sonneville, Kendrin R

2017-08-01

To examine prevalence of weight misperception (incongruence between one's perceived weight status and one's actual weight status) and disordered weight control behaviors (DWCBs; unhealthy behaviors aiming to control or modify weight), associations between weight misperception and DWCBs, and temporal trends in prevalence and associations among adolescents with overweight and obesity from 1999 to 2013. Self-reported data from eight biennial cycles (1999-2013) of the cross-sectional national Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used in analyses restricted to respondents with overweight/obesity. Data on weight status perception, use of fasting, purging, and diet pills to control weight, sex, race/ethnicity, and grade in school were used in multivariate logistic regression models. Among U.S. high school students with overweight and obesity, no linear temporal trends were detected for prevalence of weight misperception, fasting, or purging between 1999 and 2013, while a significant linear decrease was observed for prevalence of diet pill use between 1999 and 2013 (b=-0.81, p<0.01). Using data pooled across 1999-2013, weight misperception predicted lower use of all DWCBs examined in this study among females and lower use of fasting to control weight among males. No significant changes over time in associations of weight misperception with fasting or purging were observed, though the association between weight misperception and diet pill use weakened somewhat across 1999-2013. In the context of increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, weight misperception appears to be a robust protective factor for DWCBs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

2016-04-01

In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

6,220 institutionalised people with intellectual disability referred for visual assessment between 1993 and 2003: overview and trends.

PubMed

van Isterdael, C E D; Stilma, J S; Bezemer, P D; Tijmes, N T

2006-10-01

To summarise the results of visual performance tests and other data of institutionalised people with intellectual disability referred to a visual advisory centre (VAC) between 1993 and 2003, and to determine trends in these data. A retrospective medical record review was undertaken of 6,220 consecutive people examined ophthalmologically according to a standard protocol by one VAC that specialised in visual assessment and treatment of people with intellectual disability, between 1993 and 2003. chi2 test for linear trend was used and linear regression coefficients were calculated. The proportion of people aged > or =50 years increased from 19.3% to 34.2% between 1995 and 2003 (p<0.001); the combined figure of severe or profound intellectual disability decreased from 80.0% to 52.6% (p<0.001); the proportion of mobile people increased from 52.1% to 98.0% (p<0.001); the combined proportion of people with visual impairment or blindness decreased from 70.9% to 22.9% (p<0.001), and that of people with visual disorders decreased from 89.6% to 75.3% (p<0.001). Causes of intellectual disability were identified in 58.4% people; 20.8% had Down's syndrome. Many ocular diagnoses were found, indicating the need for ophthalmological monitoring. Specialised centres are helpful, because assessment and treatment of people with intellectual disability is complicated and time consuming. Protocols for efficient referral will have to be developed. A major task lies ahead to improve the treatment rates of refractive errors, cataract and strabismus, and to find specific causes of intellectual disability.

Cancer Mortality Among Men in Central Serbia: 1985-2006 Survey Study

PubMed Central

Marković-Denić, Ljiljana; Vlajinac, Hristina; Živković, Snežana; Miljuš, Dragan

2008-01-01

Aim To analyze cancer mortality trends in men in Central Serbia during 1985-2006 period. Methods Mortality rates and trends for the most frequent cancers in men (lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancer) were calculated. Mortality rates for all cancers were adjusted by direct standardization. Percentage changes of the rates were calculated as the percentage difference between the rates of two successive years and then as a mean of these changes for the entire observed period. Trend lines were estimated using linear regression. Results Total cancer mortality in men increased, with mean percentage of annual changes being 1.53% (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.09-3.16). Lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancers represented 58.1% and 61.6% of total cancer deaths in 1985 and 2006, respectively. Increasing trends were observed for all investigated cancers: mean annual percentage change for lung cancer was 2.31%(95% CI, 1.03-3.59), for colorectal cancer 2.23% (95% CI, -0.18-4.65), for prostate cancer 3.06% (95% CI, -2.07-8.18), and for pancreatic cancer 1.58% (95% CI, -2.17-5.32). Stomach cancer mortality significantly decreased in age groups 40-49 and 50-59 years. Conclusion The most frequent cancers in men in Central Serbia, ie, lung, colorectal, prostate, and pancreatic cancer, showed an increasing trend. Only stomach cancer mortality decreased over time. PMID:19090604

Counties eliminating racial disparities in colorectal cancer mortality.

PubMed

Rust, George; Zhang, Shun; Yu, Zhongyuan; Caplan, Lee; Jain, Sanjay; Ayer, Turgay; McRoy, Luceta; Levine, Robert S

2016-06-01

Although colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality rates are declining, racial-ethnic disparities in CRC mortality nationally are widening. Herein, the authors attempted to identify county-level variations in this pattern, and to characterize counties with improving disparity trends. The authors examined 20-year trends in US county-level black-white disparities in CRC age-adjusted mortality rates during the study period between 1989 and 2010. Using a mixed linear model, counties were grouped into mutually exclusive patterns of black-white racial disparity trends in age-adjusted CRC mortality across 20 three-year rolling average data points. County-level characteristics from census data and from the Area Health Resources File were normalized and entered into a principal component analysis. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to test the relation between these factors (clusters of related contextual variables) and the disparity trend pattern group for each county. Counties were grouped into 4 disparity trend pattern groups: 1) persistent disparity (parallel black and white trend lines); 2) diverging (widening disparity); 3) sustained equality; and 4) converging (moving from disparate outcomes toward equality). The initial principal component analysis clustered the 82 independent variables into a smaller number of components, 6 of which explained 47% of the county-level variation in disparity trend patterns. County-level variation in social determinants, health care workforce, and health systems all were found to contribute to variations in cancer mortality disparity trend patterns from 1990 through 2010. Counties sustaining equality over time or moving from disparities to equality in cancer mortality suggest that disparities are not inevitable, and provide hope that more communities can achieve optimal and equitable cancer outcomes for all. Cancer 2016;122:1735-48. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Gender trends in dental leadership and academics: a twenty-two-year observation.

PubMed

Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Ross, Sasha; Prasad, Soni; Koerber, Anne; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in dental leadership and academics in the United States. Nine journals that represent the dental specialties and high published impact factors were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentists' first and senior authorship for the years 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Data on appointment status and female deanship were collected from the American Dental Association (ADA) survey, and the trends were studied. The proportion of female presidents in ADA-recognized specialty organizations was also calculated. Overall, the increase in first female authorship was not statistically significant, but the increase of last female authorship was statistically significant in a linear trend over the years. The percentage of tenured female faculty members and female deans in U.S. dental schools increased by factors of 1.7 and 9, respectively, during the study period. However, female involvement in professional organizations was limited. Findings from this study indicate that female participation in authorship and leadership has increased over time. Nevertheless, females are still a minority in dental academics and leadership.

Past 15-Year Trends in Adolescent Marijuana Use: Differences by Race/Ethnicity and Sex

PubMed Central

Johnson, Renee M.; Fairman, Brian; Gilreath, Tamika; Xuan, Ziming; Rothman, Emily F.; Parnham, Taylor; Furr-Holden, C. Debra M.

2015-01-01

Background The potential for increases in adolescent marijuana use is an important concern given recent changes in marijuana policy. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in marijuana use from 1999-2013 among a national sample of US high school students. We examine changes over time by race/ethnicity and sex. Methods Data are from the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), which involves biennial, school-based surveys that generate nationally-representative data about 9th-12th grade students in the United States. Students self-reported sex, race/ethnicity, and marijuana use (i.e., lifetime use, current use, any use before age 13). We generated national estimates of the prevalence of marijuana use for the time period, and also tested for linear and quadratic trends (n=115,379). Results The prevalence of lifetime marijuana use decreased modestly from 1999 to 2009 (44% to 37%), and has increased slightly since 2009 (41%). Other marijuana use variables (e.g., past 30-day use) followed a similar pattern over time. The prevalence of past 30-day use from 1999-2013 for all groups and both sexes was 22.5%, and it was lowest among Asians and highest among American Indian/Alaska Natives. Although boys have historically had a higher prevalence of marijuana use, results indicate that male-female differences in marijuana use decreased over time. Conclusion Despite considerable changes in state marijuana policies over the past 15 years, marijuana use among high school students has largely declined. Continued surveillance is needed to assess the impact of policy changes on adolescent marijuana use. PMID:26361714

Skillful prediction of hot temperature extremes over the source region of ancient Silk Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyong; Yang, Zhanmei; Wu, Lingyun

2018-04-27

The source region of ancient Silk Road (SRASR) in China, a region of around 150 million people, faces a rapidly increased risk of extreme heat in summer. In this study, we develop statistical models to predict summer hot temperature extremes over the SRASR based on a timescale decomposition approach. Results show that after removing the linear trends, the inter-annual components of summer hot days and heatwaves over the SRASR are significantly related with those of spring soil temperature over Central Asia and sea surface temperature over Northwest Atlantic while their inter-decadal components are closely linked to those of spring East Pacific/North Pacific pattern and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for 1979-2016. The physical processes involved are also discussed. Leave-one-out cross-validation for detrended 1979-2016 time series indicates that the statistical models based on identified spring predictors can predict 47% and 57% of the total variances of summer hot days and heatwaves averaged over the SRASR, respectively. When the linear trends are put back, the prediction skills increase substantially to 64% and 70%. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show high skills in predicting spatial patterns of hot temperature extremes over the SRASR. The statistical models proposed herein can be easily applied to operational seasonal forecasting.

Linguistic Pattern Analysis of Misspellings of Typically Developing Writers in Grades 1 to 9

PubMed Central

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Silliman, Elaine R.; Berninger, Virginia W.; Dow, Michael

2012-01-01

Purpose A mixed methods approach, evaluating triple word form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Method Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in grades 1–9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Results Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between grades 4–5. Similar error types were noted across age groups but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Conclusions Triple word-form theory was supported. By grade 1, orthographic errors predominated and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects non-linear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling. PMID:22473834

Soft drinks: time trends and correlates in twenty-four European countries. A cross-national study using the DAFNE (Data Food Networking) databank.

PubMed

Naska, Androniki; Bountziouka, Vasiliki; Trichopoulou, Antonia

2010-09-01

To evaluate time trends in the availability of soft drinks, to identify food choices associated with their consumption and to assess the relationship between socio-economic status and daily soft drink availability in a wide range of European countries. Data on food and beverage availability collected through the national household budget surveys and harmonized in the DAFNE (Data Food Networking) project were used. Averages and variability of soft drink availability were estimated and tests for time trends were performed. The daily availability of food groups which appear to be correlated with that of soft drinks was further estimated. Multivariate logistic and linear regression models were applied to evaluate the association between socio-economic status and the acquisition of soft drinks. Twenty-four European countries. Nationally representative samples of households. The availability of soft drinks is steadily and significantly increasing. Households in West and North Europe reported higher daily availability of soft drinks in comparison to other European regions. Soft drinks were also found to be correlated with lower availability of plant foods and milk and higher availability of meat and sugar products. Lower socio-economic status was associated with more frequent and higher availability of soft drinks in the household. Data collected in national samples of twenty-four European countries showed disparities in soft drink availability among socio-economic strata and European regions. The correlation of soft drinks with unfavourable dietary choices has public health implications, particularly among children and adolescents.

Temporal trends in postseroconversion CD4 cell count and HIV load: the Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe Collaboration, 1985-2002.

PubMed

Dorrucci, Maria; Rezza, Giovanni; Porter, Kholoud; Phillips, Andrew

2007-02-15

To determine whether early postseroconversion CD4 cell counts and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) loads have changed over time. Our analysis was based on 22 cohorts of people with known dates of seroconversion from Europe, Australia, and Canada (Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe Collaboration). We focused on individuals seroconverting between 1985 and 2002 who had the first CD4 cell count (n=3687) or HIV load (n=1584) measured within 2 years of seroconversion and before antiretroviral use. Linear regression models were used to assess time trends in postseroconversion CD4 cell count and HIV load. Trends in time to key thresholds were also assessed, using survival analysis. The overall median initial CD4 cell count was 570 cells/ microL (interquartile range [IQR], 413-780 cells/ microL). The median initial HIV load was 35,542 copies/mL (IQR, 7600-153,050 copies/mL; on log(10) scale, 3.9-5.2 log(10) copies/mL). The postseroconversion CD4 cell count changed by an average of -6.33 cells/ microL/year (95% confidence interval [CI], -8.47 to -4.20 cells/ microL/year; P<.001), whereas an increase was observed in log(10) HIV load (+0.044 log(10) copies/mL/year; 95% CI, +0.034 to +0.053 log(10) copies/mL/year). These trends remained after adjusting for potential confounders. The probability of progressing to a CD4 cell count of <500 cells/ microL by 24 months from seroconversion increased from 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69) for individuals who seroconverted before 1991 to 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75-0.84) for those who seroconverted during 1999-2002. These data suggest that, in Europe, there has been a trend of decrease in the early CD4 cell count and of increase in the early HIV load. Additional research will be necessary to determine whether similar trends exist in other geographical areas.

Using earthquake clusters to identify fracture zones at Puna geothermal field, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, A.; Shalev, E.; Malin, P.; Kenedi, C. L.

2010-12-01

The actively producing Puna geothermal system (PGS) is located on the Kilauea East Rift Zone (ERZ), which extends out from the active Kilauea volcano on Hawaii. In the Puna area the rift trend is identified as NE-SW from surface expressions of normal faulting with a corresponding strike; at PGS the surface expression offsets in a left step, but no rift perpendicular faulting is observed. An eight station borehole seismic network has been installed in the area of the geothermal system. Since June 2006, a total of 6162 earthquakes have been located close to or inside the geothermal system. The spread of earthquake locations follows the rift trend, but down rift to the NE of PGS almost no earthquakes are observed. Most earthquakes located within the PGS range between 2-3 km depth. Up rift to the SW of PGS the number of events decreases and the depth range increases to 3-4 km. All initial locations used Hypoinverse71 and showed no trends other than the dominant rift parallel. Double difference relocation of all earthquakes, using both catalog and cross-correlation, identified one large cluster but could not conclusively identify trends within the cluster. A large number of earthquake waveforms showed identifiable shear wave splitting. For five stations out of the six where shear wave splitting was observed, the dominant polarization direction was rift parallel. Two of the five stations also showed a smaller rift perpendicular signal. The sixth station (located close to the area of the rift offset) displayed a N-S polarization, approximately halfway between rift parallel and perpendicular. The shear wave splitting time delays indicate that fracture density is higher at the PGS compared to the surrounding ERZ. Correlation co-efficient clustering with independent P and S wave windows was used to identify clusters based on similar earthquake waveforms. In total, 40 localized clusters containing ten or more events were identified. The largest cluster was located in the production area for the power plant. Most of the clusters had linear features when their Hypoinverse locations were plotted. The concentration of individual linear features was higher in the PGS than the surrounding ERZ. The resolution of the features was resolved further by relocating each individual cluster through the catalog double difference method. Mapping of the linear features showed that a number of the larger features ran rift parallel. However a large number of rift perpendicular features were also identified. In the area where the anomalous (N-S) shear wave polarization was observed, a number of linear features with a similar orientation were identified. We assume that events occurring on the same fracture zone have similar source mechanisms and thus similar waveforms. It is concluded that the linear features identified by earthquake clustering are fracture zones. The orientation and concentration of the fracture zones is consistent with that of the shear wave splitting polarizations.

Decline in sperm count and motility in young adult men from 2003 to 2013: observations from a U.S. sperm bank.

PubMed

Centola, G M; Blanchard, A; Demick, J; Li, S; Eisenberg, M L

2016-03-01

Controversy exists regarding stability of semen quality over time with papers reporting decrease, increase or stable parameters in heterogeneous populations. The current study examined semen parameters of young adult men from 2003 to 2013 at an urban U.S. sperm bank. Semen parameters were analyzed before and after cryopreservation for a total of 9425 specimens from 489 individuals. Demographic information was obtained from a social and medical history questionnaire. Following 2-3 days abstinence, the specimens were collected at the laboratory and assessed by uniform technicians and techniques. The data were analyzed using generalized linear regression after adjustment for age, days of abstinence, for repeated samples, as well as by the Cochran-Armitage trend test. The within variability was accounted for by the repeated measures model. All p values were two-sided with p < 0.05 considered significant. There was a significant decline in sperm concentration (-3.55, 95% CI -4.87, -2.23; p < 0.001), total motility (-1.23, 95% CI -1.65, -0.82; p < 0.001), total count (-10.75, 95% CI -15.95, -5.54; p < 0.001) and total motile count (-9.43, 95% CI -13.14, -5.73; p < 0.001). There was no significant change in semen volume (0.03, 95% CI -0.02, 0.09; p = 0.2). The post-thaw total motility significantly (-2.30, 95% CI -2.72, -1.87; p < 0.001) decreased with time. Importantly, demographic and lifestyle factors were stable or improved over the study period. There was a decline in age (p(trend) = 0.003) and alcohol use (p(trend) = 0.005) and an increase in college GPA (Grade Point Average) (p(trend) = 0.02). BMI (p(trend) = 0.73), educational attainment (p(trend) = 0.2), race/ethnicity (p(trend) = 0.53), and lifestyle habits (weekly exercise, p(trend) = 0.21; smoking, p(trend) = 0.99; marital status, p(trend) = 0.85) remained constant. Uniform technicians and techniques over the study period make measurement bias unlikely. This report demonstrates a decline in semen quality among young adult men in the Boston area who were attending or completed a college education during the past 10 years, and requires further study. © 2016 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

Algorithmic Trading with Developmental and Linear Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Garnett; Banzhaf, Wolfgang

A developmental co-evolutionary genetic programming approach (PAM DGP) and a standard linear genetic programming (LGP) stock trading systemare applied to a number of stocks across market sectors. Both GP techniques were found to be robust to market fluctuations and reactive to opportunities associated with stock price rise and fall, with PAMDGP generating notably greater profit in some stock trend scenarios. Both algorithms were very accurate at buying to achieve profit and selling to protect assets, while exhibiting bothmoderate trading activity and the ability to maximize or minimize investment as appropriate. The content of the trading rules produced by both algorithms are also examined in relation to stock price trend scenarios.

Estimating the intensity of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayan Mangku, I.

2017-10-01

In this paper we survey some results on estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend. We do not assume any parametric form for the cyclic component of the intensity function, except that it is periodic. Moreover, we consider the case when there is only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded interval. The considered estimators are weakly and strongly consistent when the size of the observation interval indefinitely expands. Asymptotic approximations to the bias and variance of those estimators are presented.

Two Aspects of the Simplex Model: Goodness of Fit to Linear Growth Curve Structures and the Analysis of Mean Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandys, Frantisek; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

1994-01-01

Studied the conditions under which the quasi-Markov simplex model fits a linear growth curve covariance structure and determined when the model is rejected. Presents a quasi-Markov simplex model with structured means and gives an example. (SLD)

Low back pain and physical activity--A 6.5 year follow-up among young adults in their transition from school to working life.

PubMed

Lunde, Lars-Kristian; Koch, Markus; Hanvold, Therese N; Wærsted, Morten; Veiersted, Kaj B

2015-11-12

The association between leisure time physical activity and low back pain in young adults is unclear and is in the need of prospectively obtained evidence. This study examined the course of low back pain and the association between low back pain and leisure time physical activity in a cohort of young adults in their transition from school to working life. Both low back pain and leisure time physical activity was monitored over a 6.5 year period in 420 subjects starting out as students within hairdressing, electrical installation and media/design. The association between physical activity and low back pain was investigated through the follow-up period by using linear mixed models analysis. Low back pain was significantly influenced by time and overall there was a decreasing trend of low back pain prevalence throughout the follow-up. Analysis showed a weak trend of decreasing low back pain with moderate/high physical activity levels, but this association was not significant. Low back pain decreased during follow-up with baseline as reference. Findings in our study did show non-significant trends of reduced low back pain with increased leisure time physical activity. Still, we could not support the theory of moderate/high levels of physical activity acting protective against low back pain in young adults entering working life. Our results, in combination with previous relevant research, cannot support a clear relationship between physical activity and low back pain for young adults. Thus, recommendations regarding effect of physical activity on reducing low back pain for this group are not clear.

Temporal and long-term trend analysis of class C notifiable diseases in China from 2009 to 2014

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xingyu; Hou, Fengsu; Qiao, Zhijiao; Li, Xiaosong; Zhou, Lijun; Liu, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Tao

2016-01-01

Objectives Time series models are effective tools for disease forecasting. This study aims to explore the time series behaviour of 11 notifiable diseases in China and to predict their incidence through effective models. Settings and participants The Chinese Ministry of Health started to publish class C notifiable diseases in 2009. The monthly reported case time series of 11 infectious diseases from the surveillance system between 2009 and 2014 was collected. Methods We performed a descriptive and a time series study using the surveillance data. Decomposition methods were used to explore (1) their seasonality expressed in the form of seasonal indices and (2) their long-term trend in the form of a linear regression model. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models have been established for each disease. Results The number of cases and deaths caused by hand, foot and mouth disease ranks number 1 among the detected diseases. It occurred most often in May and July and increased, on average, by 0.14126/100 000 per month. The remaining incidence models show good fit except the influenza and hydatid disease models. Both the hydatid disease and influenza series become white noise after differencing, so no available ARIMA model can be fitted for these two diseases. Conclusion Time series analysis of effective surveillance time series is useful for better understanding the occurrence of the 11 types of infectious disease. PMID:27797981

Change point detection of the Persian Gulf sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvani, A.

2017-01-01

In this study, the Student's t parametric and Mann-Whitney nonparametric change point models (CPMs) were applied to detect change point in the annual Persian Gulf sea surface temperature anomalies (PGSSTA) time series for the period 1951-2013. The PGSSTA time series, which were serially correlated, were transformed to produce an uncorrelated pre-whitened time series. The pre-whitened PGSSTA time series were utilized as the input file of change point models. Both the applied parametric and nonparametric CPMs estimated the change point in the PGSSTA in 1992. The PGSSTA follow the normal distribution up to 1992 and thereafter, but with a different mean value after year 1992. The estimated slope of linear trend in PGSSTA time series for the period 1951-1992 was negative; however, that was positive after the detected change point. Unlike the PGSSTA, the applied CPMs suggested no change point in the Niño3.4SSTA time series.

Parameter selection with the Hotelling observer in linear iterative image reconstruction for breast tomosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Sean D.; Roth, Jacob; Zimmerman, Cole; Reiser, Ingrid; Sidky, Emil Y.; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-03-01

In this work we investigate an efficient implementation of a region-of-interest (ROI) based Hotelling observer (HO) in the context of parameter optimization for detection of a rod signal at two orientations in linear iterative image reconstruction for DBT. Our preliminary results suggest that ROI-HO performance trends may be efficiently estimated by modeling only the 2D plane perpendicular to the detector and containing the X-ray source trajectory. In addition, the ROI-HO is seen to exhibit orientation dependent trends in detectability as a function of the regularization strength employed in reconstruction. To further investigate the ROI-HO performance in larger 3D system models, we present and validate an iterative methodology for calculating the ROI-HO. Lastly, we present a real data study investigating the correspondence between ROI-HO performance trends and signal conspicuity. Conspicuity of signals in real data reconstructions is seen to track well with trends in ROI-HO detectability. In particular, we observe orientation dependent conspicuity matching the orientation dependent detectability of the ROI-HO.

Trends in television time, non-gaming PC use and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity among German adolescents 2002–2010

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Studies in youth highlight that moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen-time behaviours such as television viewing and PC use are associated with a range of health outcomes. However, little is known about recent trends in these behaviours in adolescents. This paper presents time trends in German adolescents’ television time, non-gaming PC use as well as MVPA from 2002 to 2010. Methods Data were derived from the cross-sectional German Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study in 2002, 2006 and 2010. Analyses were based on 16,918 11-to 15-year olds boys (49.1%) and girls. Outcome variables were time spent in TV viewing and using a PC (weekday and weekend day) as well as the number of days achieving 60 minutes of MVPA. Changes in both screen-time behaviours and MVPA over time were analysed using sex-specific linear regression, controlling for age and family affluence. Results TV viewing on weekdays, but not at weekends, declined steadily over time with a difference between 2002 and 2010 of 12.4 min/day in girls and 18.3 min/day in boys (p for trend < .01). We found a strong increase in PC use for non-gaming purposes over time for girls only, with a difference between 2002 and 2010 of 54.1 min/weekday and 68.8 min/weekend day (p < .001). For MVPA we found a slight statistically significant increase in terms of meeting PA guidelines as well as days/week in MVPA for boys and girls (p < .001). In 2010 14.0% of girls and 19.9% of boys met PA guideline. Conclusion Although MVPA increased from 2002 to 2010 in German adolescents, the time spent in MVPA was still low. Despite the observed decrease in TV viewing, there was no overall decline in the observed screen-based behaviours, especially for girls. This is mainly due to a marked increase in use of a PC for chatting on-line, internet, emailing, homework etc. among girls during the last ten years which outweighs the corresponding decrease in TV viewing. The findings highlight a need for strategies and interventions aimed at reducing screen-time behaviours and promoting MVPA. PMID:24725269

Mapping and spatial-temporal modeling of Bromus tectorum invasion in central Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Zhenyu

Cheatgrass, or Downy Brome, is an exotic winter annual weed native to the Mediterranean region. Since its introduction to the U.S., it has become a significant weed and aggressive invader of sagebrush, pinion-juniper, and other shrub communities, where it can completely out-compete native grasses and shrubs. In this research, remotely sensed data combined with field collected data are used to investigate the distribution of the cheatgrass in Central Utah, to characterize the trend of the NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, and to construct a spatially explicit population-based model to simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the cheatgrass. This research proposes a method for mapping the canopy closure of invasive species using remotely sensed data acquired at different dates. Different invasive species have their own distinguished phenologies and the satellite images in different dates could be used to capture the phenology. The results of cheatgrass abundance prediction have a good fit with the field data for both linear regression and regression tree models, although the regression tree model has better performance than the linear regression model. To characterize the trend of NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, a novel smoothing algorithm named RMMEH is presented in this research to overcome some drawbacks of many other algorithms. By comparing the performance of RMMEH in smoothing a 16-day composite of the MODIS NDVI time-series with that of two other methods, which are the 4253EH, twice and the MVI, we have found that RMMEH not only keeps the original valid NDVI points, but also effectively removes the spurious spikes. The reconstructed NDVI time-series of different land covers are of higher quality and have smoother temporal trend. To simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass, a spatially explicit population-based model is built applying remotely sensed data. The comparison between the model output and the ground truth of cheatgrass closure demonstrates that the model could successfully simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass in a simple cheatgrass-dominant environment. The simulation of the functional response of different prescribed fire rates also shows that this model is helpful to answer management questions like, "What are the effects of prescribed fire to invasive species?" It demonstrates that a medium fire rate of 10% can successfully prevent cheatgrass invasion.

Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

2017-04-01

In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

Growth patterns and cerebro-placental hemodynamics in fetuses with congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Mebius, M J; Clur, S A B; Vink, A S; Pajkrt, E; Kalteren, W S; Kooi, E M W; Bos, A F; du Marchie Sarvaas, G J; Bilardo, C M

2018-05-28

Congenital heart disease (CHD) has been associated with a reduced fetal head circumference (HC). The underlying pathophysiological background remains undetermined. We aimed to define trends in fetal growth and cerebro-placental Doppler flow, and to investigate the association between head growth and cerebro-placental flow in fetuses with CHD. Fetuses with CHD and serial measurements of HC, abdominal circumference (AC), middle cerebral artery pulsatility index (MCA-PI), umbilical artery pulsatility index (UA-PI), and cerebro-placental ratio (CPR) were included. CHD was categorized into 3 groups based on expected cerebral arterial oxygen saturation: normal, mild to moderately reduced, and severely reduced. Trends over time in Z-scores were analyzed using a linear mixed-effects model. 181 fetuses fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Expected cerebral arterial oxygen saturation in CHD was classified as normal in 44, mild to moderately reduced in 84 and severely reduced in 53 cases. HC z-scores showed a tendency to decrease until 23 weeks, then to increase until 33 weeks, followed by a decrease again in the late third trimester. AC increased progressively with advancing gestation. MCA-PI and UA-PI showed significant trends throughout pregnancy, but CPR did not. There were no associations between expected cerebral arterial oxygen saturation and fetal growth. Average trends in MCA-PI were significantly different in the three subgroups (P=0.010), whereas average trends in UA-PI and CPR were similar (P=0.530 and P=0.285). Furthermore, there was no significant association between MCA-PI and HC (P=0.284). Fetal biometry and Doppler flow patterns are within normal ranges in fetuses with CHD, but show trends over time. Fetal head growth is not associated with the cerebral blood flow pattern or placental function and HC is not influenced by the cerebral arterial oxygen saturation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Trends in age verification among U.S. adolescents attempting to buy cigarettes at retail stores, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Filippidis, Filippos T; Agaku, Israel T; Connolly, Gregory N; Vardavas, Constantine I

2014-04-01

This study assessed trends in age verification prior to cigarette sales to U.S. middle and high school students, and refusal to sell cigarettes to students aged <18 years during 2000-2009. Data were obtained from the 2000-2009 National Youth Tobacco Survey. Trends during 2000-2009 were assessed using binary logistic regression (p<0.05). The proportion of all students, who reported being asked to show proof of age prior to a cigarette purchase in the past 30 days did not change significantly between 2000 (46.9%) and 2009 (44.9%) (p=0.529 for linear trend). No significant trend in the proportion of students aged < 18 years who were refused a sale when attempting to buy cigarettes was observed between 2000 (39.8%) and 2009 (36.7%) (p=0.283 for linear trend). Refusal of a cigarette sale was significantly higher among under-aged boys compared to girls (adjusted odds ratio=1.48; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-1.70). About half of U.S. middle and high school students who reported making a cigarette purchase were not asked for proof of age, and about three of five under-aged buyers successfully made a cigarette purchase in 2009. Intensified implementation and enforcement of policies requiring age verification among youths is warranted to reduce access and use of tobacco products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Worldwide Trends of Urinary Stone Disease Treatment Over the Last Two Decades: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Geraghty, Robert M; Jones, Patrick; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-06-01

Numerous studies have reported on regional or national trends of stone disease treatment. However, no article has yet examined the global trends of intervention for stone disease. A systematic review of articles from 1996 to September 2016 for all English language articles reporting on trends of surgical treatment of stone disease was performed. Authors were contacted in the case of data not being clear. If the authors did not reply, data were estimated from graphs or tables. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 21, and trends were analyzed using linear regression. Our systematic review yielded 120 articles, of which 8 were included in the initial review. This reflected outcomes from six countries with available data: United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Brazil. Overall ureteroscopy (URS) had a 251.8% increase in total number of treatments performed with the share of total treatments increasing by 17%. While the share of total treatments for percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) remained static, the share for extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy and open surgery fell by 14.5% and 12%, respectively. There was significant linear regression between rising trends of total treatments year on year for URS (p < 0.001). In the last two decades, the share of total treatment for urolithiasis across the published literature has increased for URS, stable for PCNL, and decreased for lithotripsy and open surgery.

Measuring environmental stress in East Greenland polar bears, 1892-1927 and 1988-2009: what does hair cortisol tell us?

PubMed

Bechshøft, T Ø; Rigét, F F; Sonne, C; Letcher, R J; Muir, D C G; Novak, M A; Henchey, E; Meyer, J S; Eulaers, I; Jaspers, V L B; Eens, M; Covaci, A; Dietz, R

2012-09-15

Hair sampled from 96 East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) over the periods 1892-1927 and 1988-2009 was analyzed for cortisol as a proxy to investigate temporal patterns of environmental stress. Cortisol concentration was independent of sex and age, and was found at significantly higher (p<0.001) concentrations in historical hair samples (1892-1927; n=8) relative to recent ones (1988-2009; n=88). In addition, there was a linear time trend in cortisol concentration of the recent samples (p<0.01), with an annual decrease of 2.7%. The recent hair samples were also analyzed for major bioaccumulative, persistent organic pollutants (POPs). There were no obvious POP related time trends or correlations between hair cortisol and hair POP concentrations. Thus, polar bear hair appears to be a relatively poor indicator of the animal's general POP load in adipose tissue. However, further investigations are warranted to explore the reasons for the temporal decrease found in the bears' hair cortisol levels. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring environmental stress in East Greenland polar bears, 1892–1927 and 1988–2009: what does hair cortisol tell us?

PubMed Central

TØ, Bechshøft; Rigét, FF; Sonne, C; Letcher, RJ; Muir, DCG; Novak, MA; Henchey, E; Meyer, JS; Eulaers; Jaspers, VLB; Eens, M; Covaci, A; Dietz, R

2012-01-01

Hair sampled from 96 East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) over the periods 1892–1927 and 1988–2009 was analyzed for cortisol as a proxy to investigate temporal patterns of environmental stress. Cortisol concentration was independent of sex and age, and was found at significantly higher (p < 0.001) concentrations in historical hair samples (1892–1927; n = 8) relative to recent ones (1988–2009; n = 88). In addition, there was a linear time trend in cortisol concentration of the recent samples (p < 0.01), with an annual decrease of 2.7 %. The recent hair samples were also analyzed for major bioaccumulative, persistent organic pollutants (POPs). There were no obvious POP related time trends or correlations between hair cortisol and hair POP concentrations. Thus, polar bear hair appears to be a relatively poor indicator of the animal’s general POP load in adipose tissue. However, further investigations are warranted to explore the reasons for the temporal decrease found in the bears’ hair cortisol levels. PMID:22572112

Emergency department and 'Google flu trends' data as syndromic surveillance indicators for seasonal influenza.

PubMed

Thompson, L H; Malik, M T; Gumel, A; Strome, T; Mahmud, S M

2014-11-01

We evaluated syndromic indicators of influenza disease activity developed using emergency department (ED) data - total ED visits attributed to influenza-like illness (ILI) ('ED ILI volume') and percentage of visits attributed to ILI ('ED ILI percent') - and Google flu trends (GFT) data (ILI cases/100 000 physician visits). Congruity and correlation among these indicators and between these indicators and weekly count of laboratory-confirmed influenza in Manitoba was assessed graphically using linear regression models. Both ED and GFT data performed well as syndromic indicators of influenza activity, and were highly correlated with each other in real time. The strongest correlations between virological data and ED ILI volume and ED ILI percent, respectively, were 0·77 and 0·71. The strongest correlation of GFT was 0·74. Seasonal influenza activity may be effectively monitored using ED and GFT data.

Trend Analyses of Users of a Syringe Exchange Program in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 1999-2014.

PubMed

Maurer, Laurie A; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Ye, Du; Benitez, José; Mazzella, Silvana; Krafty, Robert

2016-12-01

This study examines trends of injection drug users' (IDUs) use of a Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, syringe exchange program (SEP) from 1999 to 2014, including changes in demographics, drug use, substance abuse treatment, geographic indicators, and SEP use. Prevention Point Philadelphia's SEP registration data were analyzed using linear regression, Pearson's Chi square, and t-tests. Over time new SEP registrants have become younger, more racially diverse, and geographically more concentrated in specific areas of the city, corresponding to urban demographic shifts. The number of new registrants per year has decreased, however syringes exchanged have increased. Gentrification, cultural norms, and changes in risk perception are believed to have contributed to the changes in SEP registration. Demographic changes indicate outreach strategies for IDUs may need adjusting to address unique barriers for younger, more racially diverse users. Implications for SEPs are discussed, including policy and continued ability to address current public health threats.

Climate change at upper treeline: How do trees on the edge react to increasing temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Matthias; Bugmann, Harald; Nötzli, Magdalena; Bigler, Christof

2017-04-01

Treeline ecotones are thought to be particularly sensitive to climate warming, and an alteration of their growth conditions may have important implications for the ecosystem services they supply in mountain regions. We use a novel approach to quantify effects of a changing climate on tree growth, using case studies in the European Alps. We compiled tree-ring data from almost 600 trees of four species at treeline in three climate regions of Switzerland. Temperature loggers installed along transects provided data for a precise interpolation of temperatures experienced by the sampled trees. To assess the influence of temperature on annual growth, we used linear mixed-effects models, allowing us to quantify effect sizes and to account for between-tree growth variability. After removing biological growth trends, we isolated temporal trends of ring-width indices. Furthermore, we fitted non-linear regression models to radial growth rates of individual years with temperature and tree age as predicting covariates for a fine-scale investigation of the temperature dependency of tree growth. For all species, climate-growth linear mixed-effects models indicated strong positive responses of ring-width indices to temperature in early summer and previous year's autumn, featuring considerable between-tree variability. All species showed positive ring-width index trends at treeline but different interactions with elevation: Larix decidua exhibited a declining ring-width index trend with decreasing elevation, whereas Picea abies, Pinus cembra and Pinus mugo showed increasing and/or stable trends. Not only reflected our findings the effects of ameliorated growth conditions, they might have also revealed suspected negative and positive feedbacks of climate change on growth, and increased the knowledge about the functional form and parameterization of the temperature dependency of tree growth.

Top-down deactivation of interference from irrelevant spatial or verbal stimulus features.

PubMed

Frings, Christian; Wühr, Peter

2014-11-01

The selective-attention model of Houghton and Tipper (1994) assumes top-down deactivation of (conflicting) distractor representations as a mechanism of visual attention. Deactivation should produce an inverted-U-shaped activation function for distractor representations. In a recent study, Frings, Wentura, and Wühr (2012) tested this prediction in a variant of the flanker task in which a cue sometimes required participants to respond to the distractors rather than to the target. When reaction times and error rates were plotted as a function of the target-cue stimulus onset asynchrony, a quadratic trend emerged, consistent with the notion of distractor deactivation. However, in the flanker task, an alternative explanation for the quadratic trend in terms of attentional zooming is possible. The present experiments tested the deactivation account against the attentional-zooming account with the Stroop and the Simon task, in which attentional zooming should have minimal effects on distractor processing, because the target and distractor are presented at the same spatial location. Both experiments replicated the quadratic trend in the performance functions for responses to incongruent distractors, and additionally showed linear trends in the performance functions for responses to congruent distractors. These results provide additional support for the notion of top-down deactivation of distractor representations as a mechanism of visual selective attention.

The Vigilance Decrement in Executive Function Is Attenuated When Individual Chronotypes Perform at Their Optimal Time of Day

PubMed Central

Lara, Tania; Madrid, Juan Antonio; Correa, Ángel

2014-01-01

Time of day modulates our cognitive functions, especially those related to executive control, such as the ability to inhibit inappropriate responses. However, the impact of individual differences in time of day preferences (i.e. morning vs. evening chronotype) had not been considered by most studies. It was also unclear whether the vigilance decrement (impaired performance with time on task) depends on both time of day and chronotype. In this study, morning-type and evening-type participants performed a task measuring vigilance and response inhibition (the Sustained Attention to Response Task, SART) in morning and evening sessions. The results showed that the vigilance decrement in inhibitory performance was accentuated at non-optimal as compared to optimal times of day. In the morning-type group, inhibition performance decreased linearly with time on task only in the evening session, whereas in the morning session it remained more accurate and stable over time. In contrast, inhibition performance in the evening-type group showed a linear vigilance decrement in the morning session, whereas in the evening session the vigilance decrement was attenuated, following a quadratic trend. Our findings imply that the negative effects of time on task in executive control can be prevented by scheduling cognitive tasks at the optimal time of day according to specific circadian profiles of individuals. Therefore, time of day and chronotype influences should be considered in research and clinical studies as well as real-word situations demanding executive control for response inhibition. PMID:24586404

Outcome Trends after US Military Concussive Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Mac Donald, Christine L; Johnson, Ann M; Wierzechowski, Linda; Kassner, Elizabeth; Stewart, Theresa; Nelson, Elliot C; Werner, Nicole J; Adam, Octavian R; Rivet, Dennis J; Flaherty, Stephen F; Oh, John S; Zonies, David; Fang, Raymond; Brody, David L

2017-07-15

Care for US military personnel with combat-related concussive traumatic brain injury (TBI) has substantially changed in recent years, yet trends in clinical outcomes remain largely unknown. Our prospective longitudinal studies of US military personnel with concussive TBI from 2008-2013 at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany and twp sites in Afghanistan provided an opportunity to assess for changes in outcomes over time and analyze correlates of overall disability. We enrolled 321 active-duty US military personnel who sustained concussive TBI in theater and 254 military controls. We prospectively assessed clinical outcomes 6-12 months later in 199 with concussive TBI and 148 controls. Global disability, neurobehavioral impairment, depression severity, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) severity were worse in concussive TBI groups in comparison with controls in all cohorts. Global disability primarily reflected a combination of work-related and nonwork-related disability. There was a modest but statistically significant trend toward less PTSD in later cohorts. Specifically, there was a decrease of 5.9 points of 136 possible on the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale (-4.3%) per year (95% confidence interval, 2.8-9.0 points, p = 0.0037 linear regression, p = 0.03 including covariates in generalized linear model). No other significant trends in outcomes were found. Global disability was more common in those with TBI, those evacuated from theater, and those with more severe depression and PTSD. Disability was not significantly related to neuropsychological performance, age, education, self-reported sleep deprivation, injury mechanism, or date of enrollment. Thus, across multiple cohorts of US military personnel with combat-related concussion, 6-12 month outcomes have improved only modestly and are often poor. Future focus on early depression and PTSD after concussive TBI appears warranted. Adverse outcomes are incompletely explained, however, and additional studies with prospective collection of data on acute injury severity and polytrauma, as well as reduced attrition before follow-up will be required to fully address the root causes of persistent disability after wartime injury.

Coffee Consumption Is Positively Associated with Longer Leukocyte Telomere Length in the Nurses’ Health Study12

PubMed Central

Liu, Jason J; Crous-Bou, Marta; Giovannucci, Edward; De Vivo, Immaculata

2016-01-01

Background: Coffee is an important source of antioxidants, and consumption of this beverage is associated with many health conditions and a lower mortality risk. However, no study, to our knowledge, has examined whether varying coffee or caffeine consumption levels are associated with telomere length, a biomarker of aging whose shortening can be accelerated by oxidative stress. Objective: We performed a large comprehensive study on how coffee consumption is associated with telomere length. Methods: We used data from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), a prospective cohort study of female nurses that began in 1976. We examined the cross-sectional association between coffee consumption and telomere length in 4780 women from the NHS. Coffee consumption information was obtained from validated food-frequency questionnaires, and relative telomere length was measured in peripheral blood leukocytes by the quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Unconditional logistic regression was used to obtain ORs when the telomere length outcome was dichotomized at the median. Linear regression was used for tests of trend with coffee consumption and telomere length as continuous variables. Results: Higher total coffee consumption was significantly associated with longer telomeres after potential confounding adjustment. Compared with non-coffee drinkers, multivariable ORs for those drinking 2 to <3 and ≥3 cups of coffee/d were, respectively, 1.29 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.68) and 1.36 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.78) (P-trend = 0.02). We found a significant linear association between caffeine consumption from all dietary sources and telomere length (P-trend = 0.02) after adjusting for potential confounders, but not after additionally adjusting for total coffee consumption (P-trend = 0.37). Conclusions: We found that higher coffee consumption is associated with longer telomeres among female nurses. Future studies are needed to better understand the influence of coffee consumption on telomeres, which may uncover new knowledge of how coffee consumption affects health and longevity. PMID:27281805

Bibliometric Analysis of Gender Authorship Trends and Collaboration Dynamics Over 30 Years of Spine 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Brinker, Alexander R; Liao, Jane L; Kraus, Kent R; Young, Jocelyn; Sandelski, Morgan; Mikesell, Carter; Robinson, Daniel; Adjei, Michael; Lunsford, Shatoria D; Fischer, James; Kacena, Melissa A; Whipple, Elizabeth C; Loder, Randall T

2018-07-15

A bibliometric analysis. The aim of this article was to study bibliometric changes over the last 30 years of Spine. These trends are important regarding academic publication productivity. Inflation in authorship number and other bibliometric variables has been described in the scientific literature. The issue of author gender is taking on increasing importance, as efforts are being made to close the gender gap. From 1985 to 2015, 10-year incremental data for several bibliometric variables were collected, including author gender. Standard bivariate statistical analyses were performed. Trends over time were assessed by the Cochran linear trend. A P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Inclusion criteria were met for 1566 manuscripts. The majority of the manuscripts were from North America (51.2%), Europe (25.2%), and Asia (20.8%). The number of manuscripts, authors, countries, pages, and references all increased from 1985 to 2015. There was a slight increase in female first authors over time (17.5% to 18.4%, P = 0.048). There was no gender change over time for corresponding authors (14.3% to 14.0%, P = 0.29). There was an 88% increase in the percentage of female first authors having male corresponding authors (P = 0.00004), and a 123% increase in male first authors having female corresponding authors (P = 0.0002). The 14% to 18% of female authors in Spine is higher than the ∼5% female membership of the Scoliosis Research Society and North American Spine Society. Manuscripts in Spine over the past 30 years have shown a significant increase in the number of authors, collaborating institutions and countries, printed pages, references, and number of times each manuscript was cited. There has been a mild increase in female first authorship, but none in corresponding authorship. Increases in female authorship will likely require recruitment of more females into the discipline rather than providing females in the discipline with authorship opportunities. N/A.

Seasonality of climate change and oscillations in the Northeast Asia and Northwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, V.; Salomatin, A.; Kaplunenko, D.; Krokhin, V.

2003-04-01

The main goals of this study are to estimate and compare the seasonality of centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and dominated oscillations in surface air temperature and precipitation over continental and marginal areas of the Northeast Asia, as well as in the Northwest Pacific SST. We use monthly mean data for the 20th century from the NOAA Global History Climatic Network, JMA data base and WMU/COADS World Atlas of Surface Marine Data. Details of climate change/oscillations associated with cooling or warming in different areas and periods of a year are revealed. Wavelet analyses and two methods of the linear trend estimation are applied. First one is least-squares (LS) method with Fisher’s test for statistical significance level. Second one is nonparametric robust (NR) method, based on Theil's rank regression and Kendall's test for statistical significance level. The NR method should be applied to time series with abnormal distribution function typical for precipitation time series. Application of the NR method result in increase the statistical significance of both positive and negative linear trends in all cases of abnormal distribution with negative/positive skewness and low/high kurtosis. Using this method, we have determined spatial patterns of statistically significant climatic trends in surface air temperature, precipitation in the Northeast Asia, and in the Northwest Pacific SST. The most substantial centennial warming in the vast continental area of the mid-latitude band is found mainly for December March. The semi-centennial/ centennial cooling occurs in South Siberia and the subarctic mid-continental area in June September. Opposite tendencies were also revealed in precipitation and SST. Positive semi-centennial tendency in the SST in the second half of the 20th century predominates in the Kuroshio region and in the northwestern area of the subarctic gyre in winter. Negative tendency in the SST dominates in the southwestern subarctic gyre and the offshore area of the subtropic gyre in summer. Comparison of air temperature, precipitation, SST trends and oscillations in different seasons over land marginal and continental areas, as well as in the subarctic and subtropic zones indicates general features of the Northeast Asian Monsoon change/oscillation in 20th century and its second half. Similar features of seasonality in centennial, semi-centennial trends and dominated oscillations are manifested. Climate change and oscillation in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas revealed for the 20th century are explained.

Seasonality of climate change and oscillations in the Northeast Asia and Northwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, V.; Salomatin, A.; Kaplunenko, D.; Krokhin, V.

2003-04-01

The main goals of this study are to estimate and compare the centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and oscillations in surface air temperature and precipitation over continental and marginal areas of the Northeast Asian, as well as in the Northwest Pacific SST for all months of a year. We use monthly mean data for the 20th century from the NOAA Global History Climatic Network, JMA data base and WMU/COADS World Atlas of Surface Marine Data. Details of climate change/oscillations associated with cooling or warming in different areas and periods of a year are revealed. Wavelet analyses and two methods of the linear trend estimation are applied. First one is least-squares (LS) method with Fisher’s test for statistical significance level. Second one is nonparametric robust (NR) method, based on Theil's rank regression and Kendall's test for statistical significance level. The NR method should be applied to time series with abnormal distribution function typical for precipitation time series. Application of the NR method result in increase the statistical significance of both positive and negative linear trends in all cases of abnormal distribution with negative/positive skewness and low/high kurtosis. Using this method, we have determined spatial patterns of statistically significant climatic trends in surface air temperature, precipitation in the Northeast Asia, and in the Northwest Pacific SST. The most substantial centennial warming in the vast continental area of the mid-latitude band is found mainly for December March. The semi-centennial/ centennial cooling occurs in South Siberia and the subarctic mid-continental area in June September. Opposite tendencies were also revealed in precipitation and SST. Positive semi-centennial tendency in the SST in the second half of the 20th century predominates in the Kuroshio region and in the northwestern area of the subarctic gyre in winter. Negative tendency in the SST dominates in the southwestern subarctic gyre and the offshore area of the subtropic gyre in summer. Comparison of air temperature, precipitation, SST trends and oscillations in different seasons over land marginal and continental areas, as well as in the subarctic and subtropic zones indicates general features of the Northeast Asian Monsoon change/oscillation in 20th century and its second half. Similar features of seasonality in centennial, semi-centennial trends and dominated oscillations are manifested. Climate change and oscillation in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas revealed for the 20th century are explained.

Comparison of climate related changes in two Arctic fjords, Hornsund and Porsanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniskiewicz, Paulina; Stramska, Małgorzata

2017-04-01

In the Arctic zone the climate change is amplified in comparison to globally averaged trends, and the observed trends are variable spatially. Our research is focused on two Artic fjords: Porsanger and Horsund. Porsanger fjord is located in the coastal waters of the Barents Sea. Hornsund is one of fjords located in the western part of Svalbard archipelago. In this presentation we have used data provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for three meteorological stations. Two of them are located in the Porsanger fjord (Lakselv - in the inner part, Honningsvåg - in the outer zone). The third station provides data from the Hornsund fjord. Using these data we have estimated the 33-year trends (1983-2015) of air temperature and relative humidity in each station using linear regression analysis (statistically significant at 95In the inner part of the Porsanger fjord (Lakselv) the multiyear trend of increasing annual mean air temperature has been estimated at 0.006°C per year. The monthly trends were statistically significant in May, September and November. The strongest seasonal warming has been observed in spring and autumn. The trends of increasing annual mean humidity was about 0.2In Hornsund the air temperature trend (0.2°C per year) is significantly larger than in Porsanger. The trends of air temperature were statistically significant for eight months (except March, April, June and July) and three seasons (besides spring). The trends of relative humidity were not statistically significant. Thanks to this research we can discuss how atmospheric conditions and climate related trends change in time and seasons of the year in two different Arctic regions. The project has been financed from the funds of the Leading National Research Centre (KNOW) received by the Centre for Polar Studies for the period 2014-2018. This work was also funded by the Norway Grants (NCBR contract No. 201985, project NORDFLUX). Partial support comes from the Institute of Oceanology (IO PAN).

Solar activity indices as a proxy for the variation of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) over Bahir Dar, Ethiopia during the year 2010-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassa, Tsegaye; Tilahun, Samson; Damtie, Baylie

2017-09-01

This paper was aimed at investigating the solar variations of vTEC as a function of solar activity parameters, EUV and F10.7 radio flux. The daily values of ionospheric vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) were observed using a dual frequency GPS receiver deployed at Bahir Dar (11.6°N and 37.36°E), Ethiopia. Measurements were taken during the period of 2010-2014 for successive five years and analysis was done on only quiet day observations. A quadratic fit was used as a model to describe the daily variation of vTEC in relation to solar parameters. Linear and non-linear coefficients of the vTEC variations were calculated in order to capture the trend of the variation. The variation of vTEC have showed good agreement with the trend of solar parameters in almost all of the days we consider during the period of our observations. We have explicitly observed days with insignificant TECU deviation (eg. modeling with respect to EUV, DOY = 49 in 2010 and modeling with respect to F10.7, DOY = 125 in 2012 and the like) and days with maximum deviation (about 50 TECU). A maximum deviation were observed, on average, during months of equinox whereas minimum during solstice months. This implies that there is a need to consider more parameters, including EUV and F10.7, that can affect the variation of vTEC during equinox seasons. Relatively, small deviations was observed in modeling vTEC as a function of EUV compared to that of the variation due to F10.7 cm flux. This may also tell us that EUV can be more suitable in modeling the solar variation of vTEC especially for longterm trends. Even though, the linear trend of solar variations of vTEC was frequently observed, significant saturation and amplification trends of the solar variations of vTEC were also observed to some extent across the months of the years we have analyzed. This mixed trend of the solar variation of vTEC implies the need for thorough investigation on the effect of solar parameters on TEC. However, based on long-term dataset, we came to conclude that the solar variations of vTEC is dominated by its linear pattern.

Secular Trends in Blood Pressure and Overweight and Obesity in Chinese Boys and Girls Aged 7 to 17 Years From 1995 to 2014.

PubMed

Dong, Yanhui; Ma, Jun; Song, Yi; Ma, Yinghua; Dong, Bin; Zou, Zhiyong; Prochaska, Judith J

2018-06-04

The current study aimed to assess the secular trends in overweight and obesity status and high blood pressure (HBP) in Chinese children and adolescents for 2 decades. Data on 943 128 participants aged 7 to 17 years were obtained from the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health from 1995 to 2014. The population attributable risk of overweight status for HBP was calculated. The prevalence of overweight increased from 4.3% in 1995 to 18.4% in 2014, whereas HBP prevalence fluctuated in the range of 4.4% to 6.4% during the same time period, the lowest in 2005. Within each survey year, blood pressure levels and HBP prevalence increased with higher body mass index. Notably, the population attributable risk of HBP because of being overweight steadily increased from 6.3% in 1995 to 19.2% in 2014. The same trends of linear growth for obesity, fluctuating blood pressure, and its sustained increasing population attributable risk for overweight also occurred among the domestic 29 provinces. Despite dramatic increases in overweight prevalence among Chinese children from 1995 to 2014, the HBP prevalence remained relatively stable, suggesting that other independent factors are affecting HBP trends to a greater extent. Yet, over time, the magnitude of the impact of being overweight or obese on HBP increased sharply, predicting looming heavy burden of HBP. Reductions in overweight status may aid in preventing HBP so as to prevent coronary risk in adulthood. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Reductions in nitrogen oxides over Europe driven by environmental policy and economic recession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, P.; Boersma, K. F.

2012-04-01

We present a trend analysis of tropospheric NO2 for the time period of 2004-2010 over Europe. Necessary for monitoring pollution abatement strategies, NO2 trends analyses are often based on surface networks, which suffer from poorly quantified NO2 biases and spatial representativity issues inherent to the standard monitoring method. Space based NO2 trends are unbiased and self-consistent, but over Europe they have not been as obvious as those observed over North America and East Asia. In this work we exploit the daily NO2 column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) in order to isolate long-term (timescales greater than one year) variability in NO2 over Europe using a time-series separation technique. In general, we find between 2005 and 2008, 1-5% per year declines in NO2 concentration in many polluted regions (e.g. Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain). In 2009, NO2 almost exclusively decreased over Europe at a rate of 5-10% per year, coinciding with the abrupt decrease in industrial production and construction prompted by the global economic crisis. Thus by the end of 2010, we find substantial reductions in NO2 concentrations of at least 20% throughout Europe. These reductions are as much the result of temporary reductions prompted by the 2008-2009 global economic recession, as of European NOx emission controls. Our results demonstrate that realistic concentration pathways of NO2 do not follow simple linear trends, but reflect a compilation of environmental policy and economic activity.

A Reanalysis for the Seasonal and Longer-Period Cycles and the Trends in Middle Atmosphere Temperature from the HALOE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2007-01-01

Previously published analyses for the seasonal and longer-period cycles in middle atmosphere temperature versus pressure (or T(p)) from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are extended to just over 14 years and updated to properly account for the effects of autocorrelation in its time series of zonally-averaged data. The updated seasonal terms and annual averages are provided, and they can be used to generate temperature distributions that are representative of the period 1991-2005. QBO-like terms have also been resolved and are provided, and they exhibit good consistency across the range of latitudes and pressure-altitudes. Further, exploratory analyses of the residuals from each of the 221 time series have yielded significant 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) and linear trend terms at a number of latitudes and levels. The amplitudes of the SC-like terms for the upper mesosphere agree reasonably with calculations of the direct solar radiative effects for T(p). Those SC amplitudes increase by about a factor of 2 from the lower to the upper mesosphere and are also larger at the middle than at the low latitudes. The diagnosed cooling trends for the subtropical latitudes are in the range, -0.5 to -1.0 K/decade, which is in good agreement with the findings from models of the radiative effects on pressure surfaces due to known increases in atmospheric CO2. The diagnosed trends are somewhat larger than predicted with models for the upper mesosphere of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes.

Timing and secular trend of pubertal development in Beijing girls.

PubMed

Chen, Fang-Fang; Wang, You-Fa; Mi, Jie

2014-02-01

Historical research is limited in changes in pubertal development in Chinese girls. We aimed to identify the timing of pubertal characteristics and the secular trend of menarche age among Beijing girls from the 1980s through the 2000s. Six data sets were analyzed, including the Beijing Child and Adolescent Metabolic Syndrome study in 2004, where 9778 Bejing girls aged 6-18 years were studied. The Fetal Origins of Adult Disease study provided retrospective menarche age from 1940 through 1960. Other four studies were conducted in Beijing to obtain supplementary information to assess secular trend in menarche age. Linear regression method was used to analyze the data. Among Beijing girls in 2004, the median age at menarche was 12.1 years, which was 0.6 years earlier in urban than in rural areas. The median age at Breast Tanner Stage 2 was 9.5 ± 1.2 years, representing 9.4 ± 1.1 years and 9.6 ± 1.2 years for urban and rural girls, respectively. In contrast, the median age at Pubic Hair Tanner Stage 2 was 11.1 ± 1.1 years, representing 10.8 ± 1.1 and 11.4 ± 1.1 years for urban and rural girls, respectively. The menarche age of urban girls decreased by 4.2 months per decade, and that of rural girls by 9.6 months per decade from 1980 to 2004. Urban girls mature earlier than rural girls in Beijing. A secular trend towards earlier menarche was observed between the 1980s and the 2000s.

Flood Frequency Analysis Under Non-stationarity Conditions: the Case of Southern Brazilian Hydroelectric Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartiko, Daniel; Chaffe, Pedro; Bonumá, Nadia

2017-04-01

Floods may be strongly affected by climate, land-use, land-cover and water infrastructure changes. However, it is common to model this process as stationary. This approach has been questioned, especially when it involves estimate of the frequency and magnitude of extreme events for designing and maintaining hydraulic structures, as those responsible for flood control and dams safety. Brazil is the third largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world and many of the country's dams are located in the Southern Region. So, it seems appropriate to investigate the presence of non-stationarity in the affluence in these plants. In our study, we used historical flood data from the Brazilian National Grid Operator (ONS) to explore trends in annual maxima in river flow of the 38 main rivers flowing to Southern Brazilian reservoirs (records range from 43 to 84 years). In the analysis, we assumed a two-parameter log-normal distribution a linear regression model was applied in order to allow for the mean to vary with time. We computed recurrence reduction factors to characterize changes in the return period of an initially estimated 100 year-flood by a log-normal stationary model. To evaluate whether or not a particular site exhibits positive trend, we only considered data series with linear regression slope coefficients that exhibit significance levels (p<0,05). The significance level was calculated using the one-sided Student's test. The trend model residuals were analyzed using the Anderson-Darling normality test, the Durbin-Watson test for the independence and the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedasticity. Our results showed that 22 of the 38 data series analyzed have a significant positive trend. The trends were mainly in three large basins: Iguazu, Uruguay and Paranapanema, which suffered changes in land use and flow regularization in the last years. The calculated return period for the series that presented positive trend varied from 50 to 77 years for a 100 year-flood estimated by stationary model when considering a planning horizon equal to ten years. We conclude that attention should be given for future projects developed in this area, including the incorporation of non-stationarity analysis, search for answers to such changes and incorporation of new data to increase the reliability of the estimates.

Bridging the gap between marker-assisted and genomic selection of heading time and plant height in hybrid wheat.

PubMed

Zhao, Y; Mette, M F; Gowda, M; Longin, C F H; Reif, J C

2014-06-01

Based on data from field trials with a large collection of 135 elite winter wheat inbred lines and 1604 F1 hybrids derived from them, we compared the accuracy of prediction of marker-assisted selection and current genomic selection approaches for the model traits heading time and plant height in a cross-validation approach. For heading time, the high accuracy seen with marker-assisted selection severely dropped with genomic selection approaches RR-BLUP (ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction) and BayesCπ, whereas for plant height, accuracy was low with marker-assisted selection as well as RR-BLUP and BayesCπ. Differences in the linkage disequilibrium structure of the functional and single-nucleotide polymorphism markers relevant for the two traits were identified in a simulation study as a likely explanation for the different trends in accuracies of prediction. A new genomic selection approach, weighted best linear unbiased prediction (W-BLUP), designed to treat the effects of known functional markers more appropriately, proved to increase the accuracy of prediction for both traits and thus closes the gap between marker-assisted and genomic selection.

Bridging the gap between marker-assisted and genomic selection of heading time and plant height in hybrid wheat

PubMed Central

Zhao, Y; Mette, M F; Gowda, M; Longin, C F H; Reif, J C

2014-01-01

Based on data from field trials with a large collection of 135 elite winter wheat inbred lines and 1604 F1 hybrids derived from them, we compared the accuracy of prediction of marker-assisted selection and current genomic selection approaches for the model traits heading time and plant height in a cross-validation approach. For heading time, the high accuracy seen with marker-assisted selection severely dropped with genomic selection approaches RR-BLUP (ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction) and BayesCπ, whereas for plant height, accuracy was low with marker-assisted selection as well as RR-BLUP and BayesCπ. Differences in the linkage disequilibrium structure of the functional and single-nucleotide polymorphism markers relevant for the two traits were identified in a simulation study as a likely explanation for the different trends in accuracies of prediction. A new genomic selection approach, weighted best linear unbiased prediction (W-BLUP), designed to treat the effects of known functional markers more appropriately, proved to increase the accuracy of prediction for both traits and thus closes the gap between marker-assisted and genomic selection. PMID:24518889

Past and Present ARDS Mortality Rates: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Máca, Jan; Jor, Ondřej; Holub, Michal; Sklienka, Peter; Burša, Filip; Burda, Michal; Janout, Vladimír; Ševčík, Pavel

2017-01-01

ARDS is severe form of respiratory failure with significant impact on the morbidity and mortality of critical care patients. Epidemiological data are crucial for evaluating the efficacy of therapeutic interventions, designing studies, and optimizing resource distribution. The goal of this review is to present general aspects of mortality data published over the past decades. A systematic search of the MEDLINE/PubMed was performed. The articles were divided according to their methodology, type of reported mortality, and time. The main outcome was mortality. Extracted data included study duration, number of patients, and number of centers. The mortality trends and current mortality were calculated for subgroups consisting of in-hospital, ICU, 28/30-d, and 60-d mortality over 3 time periods (A, before 1995; B, 1995-2000; C, after 2000). The retrospectivity and prospectivity were also taken into account. Moreover, we present the most recent mortality rates since 2010. One hundred seventy-seven articles were included in the final analysis. General mortality rates ranged from 11 to 87% in studies including subjects with ARDS of all etiologies (mixed group). Linear regression revealed that the study design (28/30-d or 60-d) significantly influenced the mortality rate. Reported mortality rates were higher in prospective studies, such as randomized controlled trials and prospective observational studies compared with retrospective observational studies. Mortality rates exhibited a linear decrease in relation to time period (P < .001). The number of centers showed a significant negative correlation with mortality rates. The prospective observational studies did not have consistently higher mortality rates compared with randomized controlled trials. The mortality trends over 3 time periods (before 1995, 1995-2000, and after 2000) yielded variable results in general ARDS populations. However, a mortality decrease was present mostly in prospective studies. Since 2010, the overall rates of in-hospital, ICU, and 28/30-d and 60-d mortality were 45, 38, 30, and 32%, respectively. Copyright © 2017 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

Thirty-Day and 5-Year Readmissions following First Psychiatric Hospitalization: A System-Level Study of Ontario's Psychiatric Care.

PubMed

Chen, Sheng; Collins, April; Kidd, Sean A

2018-06-01

Analyses of representative, system-level data to examine trends in short- and longer-term readmission rates for psychiatric illnesses are largely absent. The objective of this article is to examine key trends and variables with implications for inpatient care as indicated by 30-day readmission and outpatient care as reflected by readmission within 5 years. Using OMHRS data from 2005 to 2015, patients who had their first inpatient admission were followed for 5 years to examine their subsequent 30-day and overall admission rates stratified by discharge time and diagnosis. The study cohort consisted of 42,280 patients. The 30-day and 5-year readmission rates for the entire cohort were 7.2% and 35.1%, respectively. Using a time course analysis of readmission for discharges in different years, both 30-day readmission and 5-year readmission rates decreased in a linear manner from 2005 to 2010, primarily because of readmission patterns for patients diagnosed with mood disorders and schizophrenia/other psychotic disorders. It was also evident that both demographic considerations such as age and gender and variables reflective of social determinants such as education level and employment were predictive of rehospitalization risk. The trends of decreasing readmission rates may be reflective of improvements in the quality of hospital and community-based outpatient care. Such system-level indicators warrant tracking and may inform more effective tertiary prevention.

Disparities in Prevalence of Smoking and Smoking Cessation during Pregnancy: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Dias-Damé, Josiane L.; Cesar, Juraci A.

2015-01-01

Objective. To examine time trends in prevalence of smoking and smoking cessation during pregnancy by family income, maternal level of education, skin color, and age. Methods. We conducted three population-based surveys in 2007, 2010, and 2013 with newly delivered mothers living in the municipality of Rio Grande, Southern Brazil. Data were collected using questionnaires administered after delivery in all (two) maternity units in the city, at Dr. Miguel Riet Corrêa Júnior Hospital and at Santa Casa de Misericórdia. Time trends were analyzed using chi-square test for linear trend. Results. Data of 7,572 women showed that the prevalence of smoking before pregnancy decreased from 28% (26.2–29.7) in 2007 to 22% (20.8–24.0) in 2013 (P < 0.001). Prevalence of smoking during pregnancy decreased from 22% (20.4–23.7) in 2007 to 18% (16.6–19.5) in 2013 (P < 0.001). This reduction varied across income ranging from 17% (poorest) to 35% (richest) (P < 0.001). The lower the income, the higher the smoking prevalence during pregnancy. Smoking cessation was more prevalent among women of higher level of education and income. Conclusions. Smoking before and during pregnancy is still highly prevalent and the prevalence of cessation is low pointing to a need to strengthen actions targeting low-income, less educated, black pregnant women. PMID:26075231

Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

Arginine intake is associated with oxidative stress in a general population.

PubMed

Carvalho, Aline Martins de; Oliveira, Antonio Anax Falcão de; Loureiro, Ana Paula de Melo; Gattás, Gilka Jorge Figaro; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Marchioni, Dirce Maria

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the association between protein and arginine from meat intake and oxidative stress in a general population. Data came from the Health Survey for Sao Paulo (ISA-Capital), a cross-sectional population-based study in Brazil (N = 549 adults). Food intake was estimated by a 24-h dietary recall. Oxidative stress was estimated by malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration in plasma. Analyses were performed using general linear regression models adjusted for some genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders. MDA levels were associated with meat intake (P for linear trend = 0.031), protein from meat (P for linear trend = 0.006), and arginine from meat (P for linear trend = 0.044) after adjustments for confounders: age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, intake of fruit and vegetables, energy and heterocyclic amines, C-reactive protein levels, and polymorphisms in GSTM1 (glutathione S-transferase Mu 1) and GSTT1 (glutathione S-transferase theta 1) genes. Results were not significant for total protein and protein from vegetable intake (P > 0.05). High protein and arginine from meat intake were associated with oxidative stress independently of genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders in a population-based study. Our results suggested a novel link between high protein/arginine intake and oxidative stress, which is a major cause of age-related diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spectral variability of plagioclase-mafic mixtures (3): Quantitative analysis applying the MGM algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serventi, Giovanna; Carli, Cristian; Sgavetti, Maria

2015-07-01

Among the techniques to detect planet's mineralogical composition remote sensing, visible and near-infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectroscopy is a powerful tool, because crystal field absorption bands are related to particular transitional metals in well-defined crystal structures, e.g., Fe2+ in M1 and M2 sites of olivine (OL) or pyroxene (PX). Although OL, PX and their mixtures have been widely studied, plagioclase (PL), considered a spectroscopically transparent mineral, has been poorly analyzed. In this work we quantitatively investigate the influence of plagioclase absorption band on the absorption bands of Fe, Mg minerals using the Modified Gaussian Model - MGM (Sunshine, J.M. et al. [1990]. J. Geophys. Res. 95, 6955-6966). We consider three plagioclase compositions of varying FeO wt.% contents and five mafic end-members (1) 56% orthopyroxene and 44% clinopyroxene, (2) 28% olivine and 72% orthopyroxene, (3) 30% orthopyroxene and 70% olivine, (4) 100% olivine and (5) 100% orthopyroxene, at two different particle sizes. The spectral parameters considered here are: band depth, band center, band width, c0 (the continuum intercept) and c1 (the continuum offset). In particular, we show the variation of the plagioclase and composite (plagioclase-olivine) band spectral parameters versus the volumetric iron content related to the plagioclase abundance in mixtures. Generally, increasing the vol. FeO% due to the PL: (1) 1250 nm band deepens with linear trend in mixtures with pyroxenes, while it decreases in mixtures with olivine, with trend shifting from parabolic to linear increasing the olivine content in end-member; (2) 1250 nm band center moves towards longer wavelengths with linear trend in pyroxene-rich mixtures and parabolic trend in olivine-rich mixtures; and (3) 1250 nm band clearly widens with linear trend in olivine-free mixtures, while the widening is only slight in olivine-rich mixtures. We also outline how spectral parameters can be ambiguous leading to an incorrect mineralogical interpretation. Furthermore, we show the presence of an asymmetry of the plagioclase band towards the IR region, resolvable adding a Gaussian in the 1600-1800 nm spectral region.

Time-series analysis of delta13C from tree rings. I. Time trends and autocorrelation.

PubMed

Monserud, R A; Marshall, J D

2001-09-01

Univariate time-series analyses were conducted on stable carbon isotope ratios obtained from tree-ring cellulose. We looked for the presence and structure of autocorrelation. Significant autocorrelation violates the statistical independence assumption and biases hypothesis tests. Its presence would indicate the existence of lagged physiological effects that persist for longer than the current year. We analyzed data from 28 trees (60-85 years old; mean = 73 years) of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl.), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca) growing in northern Idaho. Material was obtained by the stem analysis method from rings laid down in the upper portion of the crown throughout each tree's life. The sampling protocol minimized variation caused by changing light regimes within each tree. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were used to describe the autocorrelation structure over time. Three time series were analyzed for each tree: the stable carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C); discrimination (delta); and the difference between ambient and internal CO(2) concentrations (c(a) - c(i)). The effect of converting from ring cellulose to whole-leaf tissue did not affect the analysis because it was almost completely removed by the detrending that precedes time-series analysis. A simple linear or quadratic model adequately described the time trend. The residuals from the trend had a constant mean and variance, thus ensuring stationarity, a requirement for autocorrelation analysis. The trend over time for c(a) - c(i) was particularly strong (R(2) = 0.29-0.84). Autoregressive moving average analyses of the residuals from these trends indicated that two-thirds of the individual tree series contained significant autocorrelation, whereas the remaining third were random (white noise) over time. We were unable to distinguish between individuals with and without significant autocorrelation beforehand. Significant ARMA models were all of low order, with either first- or second-order (i.e., lagged 1 or 2 years, respectively) models performing well. A simple autoregressive (AR(1)), model was the most common. The most useful generalization was that the same ARMA model holds for each of the three series (delta(13)C, delta, c(a) - c(i)) for an individual tree, if the time trend has been properly removed for each series. The mean series for the two pine species were described by first-order ARMA models (1-year lags), whereas the Douglas-fir mean series were described by second-order models (2-year lags) with negligible first-order effects. Apparently, the process of constructing a mean time series for a species preserves an underlying signal related to delta(13)C while canceling some of the random individual tree variation. Furthermore, the best model for the overall mean series (e.g., for a species) cannot be inferred from a consensus of the individual tree model forms, nor can its parameters be estimated reliably from the mean of the individual tree parameters. Because two-thirds of the individual tree time series contained significant autocorrelation, the normal assumption of a random structure over time is unwarranted, even after accounting for the time trend. The residuals of an appropriate ARMA model satisfy the independence assumption, and can be used to make hypothesis tests.

A prospective cohort study among new Chinese coal miners: the early pattern of lung function change.

PubMed

Wang, M-L; Wu, Z-E; Du, Q-G; Petsonk, E L; Peng, K-L; Li, Y-D; Li, S-K; Han, G-H; Atffield, M D

2005-11-01

To investigate the early pattern of longitudinal change in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) among new Chinese coal miners, and the relation between coal mine dust exposure and the decline of lung function. The early pattern of lung function changes in 317 newly hired Chinese underground coal miners was compared to 132 referents. This three year prospective cohort study involved a pre-employment and 15 follow up health surveys, including a questionnaire and spirometry tests. Twice a month, total and respirable dust area sampling was done. The authors used a two stage analysis and a linear mixed effects model approach to analyse the longitudinal spirometry data, and to investigate the changes in FEV1 over time, controlling for age, height, pack years of smoking, mean respirable dust concentration, the room temperature during testing, and the groupxtime interaction terms. FEV1 change over time in new miners is non-linear. New miners experience initial rapid FEV1 declines, primarily during the first year of mining, little change during the second year, and partial recovery during the third year. Both linear and quadratic time trends in FEV1 change are highly significant. Smoking miners lost more FEV1 than non-smokers. Referents, all age less than 20 years, showed continued lung growth, whereas the miners who were under age 20 exhibited a decline in FEV1. Dust and smoking affect lung function in young, newly hired Chinese coal miners. FEV1 change over the first three years of employment is non-linear. The findings have implications for both methods and interpretation of medical screening in coal mining and other dusty work: during the first several years of employment more frequent testing may be desirable, and caution is required in interpreting early FEV1 declines.

Trends in Firearm Suicide among Older American Males: 1979-1988.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Mark S.; And Others

1994-01-01

Used National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality data to perform age-specific analysis of linear trends in suicide. Found males aged 65+ years were most likely to use firearms. In 1988, nearly 80% of suicides by older males were committed with firearms. Firearm-related suicide rates were much lower for blacks than whites 65 and…

Air Pollution and urban climatology at Norfolk, Virginia

Treesearch

W. Maurice Pritchard; Kuldip P. Chopra

1977-01-01

The atmosphere at Norfolk is usually stable, with no strongly prevailing wind direction. Linear regression analyses of visibility data indicate a generally decreasing visibility trend between 1960 and 1972, with a possible trend reversal in later years. A 44 percent increase in the annual frequency of 0-4-mile visibility occurred in 1960-72. Similar analyses of...

Obesity, High-Calorie Food Intake, and Academic Achievement Trends among U.S. School Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Jian; O'Connell, Ann A.

2012-01-01

The authors investigated children's self-reported high-calorie food intake in Grade 5 and its relationship to trends in obesity status and academic achievement over the first 6 years of school. They used 3-level hierarchical linear models in the large-scale database (the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study--Kindergarten Cohort). Findings indicated…

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Non-Linear Concentration-Response Relationships between Ambient Ozone and Daily Mortality.

PubMed

Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kashima, Saori; Yorifuji, Takashi; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

2015-01-01

Ambient ozone (O3) concentration has been reported to be significantly associated with mortality. However, linearity of the relationships and the presence of a threshold has been controversial. The aim of the present study was to examine the concentration-response relationship and threshold of the association between ambient O3 concentration and non-accidental mortality in 13 Japanese and Korean cities from 2000 to 2009. We selected Japanese and Korean cities which have population of over 1 million. We constructed Poisson regression models adjusting daily mean temperature, daily mean PM10, humidity, time trend, season, year, day of the week, holidays and yearly population. The association between O3 concentration and mortality was examined using linear, spline and linear-threshold models. The thresholds were estimated for each city, by constructing linear-threshold models. We also examined the city-combined association using a generalized additive mixed model. The mean O3 concentration did not differ greatly between Korea and Japan, which were 26.2 ppb and 24.2 ppb, respectively. Seven out of 13 cities showed better fits for the spline model compared with the linear model, supporting a non-linear relationships between O3 concentration and mortality. All of the 7 cities showed J or U shaped associations suggesting the existence of thresholds. The range of city-specific thresholds was from 11 to 34 ppb. The city-combined analysis also showed a non-linear association with a threshold around 30-40 ppb. We have observed non-linear concentration-response relationship with thresholds between daily mean ambient O3 concentration and daily number of non-accidental death in Japanese and Korean cities.

Road safety forecasts in five European countries using structural time series models.

PubMed

Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George

2014-01-01

Modeling road safety development is a complex task and needs to consider both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed. The objective of this research is to apply structural time series models for obtaining reliable medium- to long-term forecasts of road traffic fatality risk using data from 5 countries with different characteristics from all over Europe (Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Norway, and Switzerland). Two structural time series models are considered: (1) the local linear trend model and the (2) latent risk time series model. Furthermore, a structured decision tree for the selection of the applicable model for each situation (developed within the Road Safety Data, Collection, Transfer and Analysis [DaCoTA] research project, cofunded by the European Commission) is outlined. First, the fatality and exposure data that are used for the development of the models are presented and explored. Then, the modeling process is presented, including the model selection process, introduction of intervention variables, and development of mobility scenarios. The forecasts using the developed models appear to be realistic and within acceptable confidence intervals. The proposed methodology is proved to be very efficient for handling different cases of data availability and quality, providing an appropriate alternative from the family of structural time series models in each country. A concluding section providing perspectives and directions for future research is presented.

Does mesoscale matters in decadal changes observed in the northern Canary upwelling system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Relvas, P.; Luís, J.; Santos, A. M. P.

2009-04-01

The Western Iberia constitutes the northern limb of the Canary Current Upwelling System, one of the four Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems of the world ocean. The strong dynamic link between the atmosphere and the ocean makes these systems highly sensitive to global change, ideal to monitor and investigate its effects. In order to investigate decadal changes of the mesoscale patterns in the Northern Canary upwelling system (off Western Iberia), the field of the satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) trends was built at the pixel scale (4x4 km) for the period 1985-2007, based on the monthly mean data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board NOAA series satellites, provided by the NASA Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The time series were limited to the nighttime passes to avoid the solar heating effect and a suite of procedures were followed to guarantee that the temperature trends were not biased towards the seasonally more abundant summer data, when the sky is considerably clear. A robust linear fit was applied to each individual pixel, crossing along the time the same pixel in all the processed monthly mean AVHRR SST images from 1985 until 2007. The field of the SST trends was created upon the slopes of the linear fits applied to each pixel. Monthly mean SST time series from the one degree enhanced International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and from near-shore measurements collected on a daily basis by the Portuguese Meteorological Office (IM) are also used to compare the results and extend the analysis back until 1960. A generalized warming trend is detected in the coastal waters off Western Iberia during the last decades, no matter which data set we analyse. However, significant spatial differences in the warming rates are observed in the satellite-derived SST trends. Remarkably, off the southern part of the Western Iberia the known upwelling pattern is clearly reflected in the warming field. There, the coastal upwelled waters show a weak warming trend when compared with the offshore waters. If we assume that the SST contrast between coastal and offshore waters is a proxy for the upwelling intensity, then this fact suggests the enhancement of the upwelling regime off SW Iberia since 1985. Although the seasonal nature of the upwelling in the region, the strengthening must be significant since it leaves a coherent imprint in the annual warming field. An analysis done on a monthly basis reveals that the central months of the classical upwelling season (July to September) are the responsible for this coherent mesoscale structure observed in the warming field off SW Iberia. The same conclusions are not clear for the mesoscale structure further north, where no significant differences are observed between the coastal and offshore warming rates. To investigate if our results, obtained for the period with satellite coverage (1985-2007), could be extended or not until 1960, we computed an upwelling index as the SST difference between coastal and offshore ICOADS SST. The analysis revealed that the trends are different whether we consider the whole time series or only the period investigated with the satellite imagery. We can suppose a relatively unchanged upwelling regime if we consider the period 1960-2005, but a rapid increase of intensity if we consider the period from 1985 onwards, particularly in the most southern regions, in agreement with the satellite imagery analysis. Our present results point out that mesoscale activity can account for larger changes in local SST than global average trends. In Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems, where mesoscale structures play a major role in the description of the upwelling regime, to rely on sparse spatial observations to hypothesize about the decadal behaviour of the upwelling intensity at the basin scale may be questionable.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

Long-term variations of SST and heat content in the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huonsou-gbo, Aubains; Servain, Jacques; Caniaux, Guy; Araujo, Moacyr; Bourlès, Bernard; Veleda, Doris

2015-04-01

Recent studies (eg. Wen et al. 2010; Servain et al. 2014) suggest that subsurface processes influence the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic through the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) with time lags of several months. In this study, we used observed SST and Ocean heat content to test such hypothesis during the period 1964-2013. First results indicate great similarities in the positive linear trends of monthly standardized anomalies of SST, upper ocean heat content (0-500m) and deeper ocean heat content (500-2000m) averaged over the whole Atlantic Ocean. Strong positive trends of SST and deeper heat content occurred in the equatorial Atlantic, while a strong positive trend of the upper heat content was observed in the northeast Atlantic. These positive trends were the highest during the last two decades. The lagged positive correlation patterns between upper heat content anomalies over the whole gridded Atlantic Ocean and SST anomalies averaged over the equatorial region (60°W-15°E; 10°N-10°S) show a slow temporal evolution, which is roughly in agreement with the upper MOC. More detailed works about the mechanism, as well as about the origin of the highest positive trend of the deeper heat content in the equatorial region, are presently under investigation. References Servain J., G. Caniaux, Y. K. Kouadio, M. J. McPhaden, M. Araujo (2014). Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, 3071-3089, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2168-7.

Patient turnover and nursing employment in Massachusetts hospitals before and after health insurance reform: implications for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Shindul-Rothschild, Judith; Gregas, Matt

2013-01-01

The Affordable Care Act is modeled after Massachusetts insurance reforms enacted in 2006. A linear mixed effect model examined trends in patient turnover and nurse employment in Massachusetts, New York, and California nonfederal hospitals from 2000 to 2011. The linear mixed effect analysis found that the rate of increase in hospital admissions was significantly higher in Massachusetts hospitals (p<.001) than that in California and New York (p=.007). The rate of change in registered nurses full-time equivalent hours per patient day was significantly less (p=.02) in Massachusetts than that in California and was not different from zero. The rate of change in admissions to registered nurses full-time equivalent hours per patient day was significantly greater in Massachusetts than California (p=.001) and New York (p<.01). Nurse staffing remained flat in Massachusetts, despite a significant increase in hospital admissions. The implications of the findings for nurse employment and hospital utilization following the implementation of national health insurance reform are discussed.