[Visual field progression in glaucoma: cluster analysis].

PubMed

Bresson-Dumont, H; Hatton, J; Foucher, J; Fonteneau, M

2012-11-01

Visual field progression analysis is one of the key points in glaucoma monitoring, but distinction between true progression and random fluctuation is sometimes difficult. There are several different algorithms but no real consensus for detecting visual field progression. The trend analysis of global indices (MD, sLV) may miss localized deficits or be affected by media opacities. Conversely, point-by-point analysis makes progression difficult to differentiate from physiological variability, particularly when the sensitivity of a point is already low. The goal of our study was to analyse visual field progression with the EyeSuite™ Octopus Perimetry Clusters algorithm in patients with no significant changes in global indices or worsening of the analysis of pointwise linear regression. We analyzed the visual fields of 162 eyes (100 patients - 58 women, 42 men, average age 66.8 ± 10.91) with ocular hypertension or glaucoma. For inclusion, at least six reliable visual fields per eye were required, and the trend analysis (EyeSuite™ Perimetry) of visual field global indices (MD and SLV), could show no significant progression. The analysis of changes in cluster mode was then performed. In a second step, eyes with statistically significant worsening of at least one of their clusters were analyzed point-by-point with the Octopus Field Analysis (OFA). Fifty four eyes (33.33%) had a significant worsening in some clusters, while their global indices remained stable over time. In this group of patients, more advanced glaucoma was present than in stable group (MD 6.41 dB vs. 2.87); 64.82% (35/54) of those eyes in which the clusters progressed, however, had no statistically significant change in the trend analysis by pointwise linear regression. Most software algorithms for analyzing visual field progression are essentially trend analyses of global indices, or point-by-point linear regression. This study shows the potential role of analysis by clusters trend. However, for best results, it is preferable to compare the analyses of several tests in combination with morphologic exam. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Medico-legal litigation in Obstetrics: a characterization analysis of a decade in Portugal.

PubMed

Domingues, Ana Patrícia Rodrigues; Belo, Adriana; Moura, Paulo; Vieira, Duarte Nuno

2015-05-01

It was to analyse the most critical areas in Obstetrics and to suggest measures to reduce or avoid the situations most often involved in these disputes. Obstetrics cases submitted to the Medico-legal Council since the creation of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences in 2001 until 2011 were evaluated. A comprehensive characterization, determination of absolute/relative frequencies, hypothesis of a linear trend over the years and the association between each parameter was done. The analysis has shown no significantly linear trend. The most common reasons for disputes were perinatal asphyxia (50%), traumatic injuries of the newborn (24%), maternal sequelae (19%) and issues related to prenatal diagnosis and/or obstetric ultrasound (5.4%). Perinatal asphyxia showed no significantly linear trend (p=0.58) and was usually related to perinatal deaths or permanent neurologic sequelae in newborn children. Traumatic injuries of the newborn, mostly related to instrumented deliveries, shoulder dystocia or vaginal delivery in breech presentation, has shown a significantly increased linear trend (p<0.001), especially related to instrumented deliveries. The delay/absence of cesarean section was the clinical procedure questioned in a significantly higher number of cases of perinatal asphyxia (68.7%) and of traumatic lesions of the newborn due to instrumented deliveries (20.5%). It is important to improve and correct theoretical/practical daily clinical performance in these highlighted areas, in order to reduce or even avoid situations that could end up in medico-legal litigations.

Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.; Degenstein, D.; Froidevaux, L.; Thompson, A. M.

2014-01-01

Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.

Trends in non-stationary signal processing techniques applied to vibration analysis of wind turbine drive train - A contemporary survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uma Maheswari, R.; Umamaheswari, R.

2017-02-01

Condition Monitoring System (CMS) substantiates potential economic benefits and enables prognostic maintenance in wind turbine-generator failure prevention. Vibration Monitoring and Analysis is a powerful tool in drive train CMS, which enables the early detection of impending failure/damage. In variable speed drives such as wind turbine-generator drive trains, the vibration signal acquired is of non-stationary and non-linear. The traditional stationary signal processing techniques are inefficient to diagnose the machine faults in time varying conditions. The current research trend in CMS for drive-train focuses on developing/improving non-linear, non-stationary feature extraction and fault classification algorithms to improve fault detection/prediction sensitivity and selectivity and thereby reducing the misdetection and false alarm rates. In literature, review of stationary signal processing algorithms employed in vibration analysis is done at great extent. In this paper, an attempt is made to review the recent research advances in non-linear non-stationary signal processing algorithms particularly suited for variable speed wind turbines.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations

PubMed Central

Condon, Robert H.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Sutherland, Kelly R.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Haddock, Steven H. D.; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D.; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M.; Graham, William M.

2013-01-01

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face. PMID:23277544

Martian lineaments from Mariner 6 and 7 photographs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.; Ingerson, F. E.

1973-01-01

Mariner 6 and 7 photographs were used to investigate the nature and importance of linear surface trends on Mars. Cross correlations of frequency-azimuth distributions of linear trends from different Mariner frames indicate that lineations not recognized as topographic features have a component of pseudoforms, probably introduced during digital reconstruction of the pictures. Similar statistical tests may aid in the analysis of surface trends from future satellites and space probes. The most reliable data were separated into photometrically defined provinces. Meridiani Sinus and Margaritifer Sinus display five major trends in common, which are interpreted as extensions of crustal weaknesses related to the enormous equatorial canyon revealed in Mariner 6 and 9 pictures. Alignments of crater wall segments generally match these trends and suggest structural control of crater plan. Crater chains, however, do not match these trends and are interpreted as secondary impacts. Rose diagrams of lineations in Deucalionis Regio exhibit much more complexity and are believed to reflect a better preserved or more complex geologic history.

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Timeline trend profile and seasonal variations in nicotine present in ambient PM10 samples: A four year investigation from Delhi region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Shweta; Tandon, Ankit; Attri, Arun K.

2014-12-01

The detection of nicotine, an organic tracer for Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS), in the collected PM10 samples from Delhi region's ambient environment, in a appropriately designed investigation was initiated over four years (2006-2009) to: (1) Comprehend seasonal and inter-annual variations in the nicotine present in PM10; (2) Extract regression based linear trend profile manifested by nicotine in PM10; (3) Determine the non-linear trend timeline from the nicotine data, and compare it with the obtained linear trend; (4) Suggest the possible use of the designed experiment and analysis to have a qualitative appraisal of Tobacco Smoking activity in the sampling region. The PM10 samples were collected in a monthly time-series sequence at a known receptor site. Quantitative estimates of nicotine (ng m-3) were made by using a Thermal Desorption Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (TD-GC/MS). The annual average concentrations of nicotine (ng m-3) were 516 ± 302 (2008) > 494 ± 301 (2009) > 438 ± 250 (2007) > 325 ± 149 (2006). The estimated linear trend of 5.4 ng m-3 month-1 corresponded to 16.3% per annum increase in the PM10 associated nicotine. The industrial production of India's tobacco index normalized to Delhi region's consumption, pegged an increase at 10.5% per annum over this period.

Two Aspects of the Simplex Model: Goodness of Fit to Linear Growth Curve Structures and the Analysis of Mean Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandys, Frantisek; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

1994-01-01

Studied the conditions under which the quasi-Markov simplex model fits a linear growth curve covariance structure and determined when the model is rejected. Presents a quasi-Markov simplex model with structured means and gives an example. (SLD)

Exploring stability of entropy analysis for signal with different trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yin; Li, Jin; Wang, Jun

2017-03-01

Considering the effects of environment disturbances and instrument systems, the actual detecting signals always are carrying different trends, which result in that it is difficult to accurately catch signals complexity. So choosing steady and effective analysis methods is very important. In this paper, we applied entropy measures-the base-scale entropy and approximate entropy to analyze signal complexity, and studied the effect of trends on the ideal signal and the heart rate variability (HRV) signals, that is, linear, periodic, and power-law trends which are likely to occur in actual signals. The results show that approximate entropy is unsteady when we embed different trends into the signals, so it is not suitable to analyze signal with trends. However, the base-scale entropy has preferable stability and accuracy for signal with different trends. So the base-scale entropy is an effective method to analyze the actual signals.

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data

PubMed Central

Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E.; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. Methods We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. Results 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3-14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14-20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Conclusions Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. PMID:25458783

Geomorphic domains and linear features on Landsat images, Circle Quadrangle, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, S.L.

1984-01-01

A remote sensing study using Landsat images was undertaken as part of the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP). Geomorphic domains A and B, identified on enhanced Landsat images, divide Circle quadrangle south of Tintina fault zone into two regional areas having major differences in surface characteristics. Domain A is a roughly rectangular, northeast-trending area of relatively low relief and simple, widely spaced drainages, except where igneous rocks are exposed. In contrast, domain B, which bounds two sides of domain A, is more intricately dissected showing abrupt changes in slope and relatively high relief. The northwestern part of geomorphic domain A includes a previously mapped tectonostratigraphic terrane. The southeastern boundary of domain A occurs entirely within the adjoining tectonostratigraphic terrane. The sharp geomorphic contrast along the southeastern boundary of domain A and the existence of known faults along this boundary suggest that the southeastern part of domain A may be a subdivision of the adjoining terrane. Detailed field studies would be necessary to determine the characteristics of the subdivision. Domain B appears to be divisible into large areas of different geomorphic terrains by east-northeast-trending curvilinear lines drawn on Landsat images. Segments of two of these lines correlate with parts of boundaries of mapped tectonostratigraphic terranes. On Landsat images prominent north-trending lineaments together with the curvilinear lines form a large-scale regional pattern that is transected by mapped north-northeast-trending high-angle faults. The lineaments indicate possible lithlogic variations and/or structural boundaries. A statistical strike-frequency analysis of the linear features data for Circle quadrangle shows that northeast-trending linear features predominate throughout, and that most northwest-trending linear features are found south of Tintina fault zone. A major trend interval of N.64-72E. in the linear feature data, corresponds to the strike of foliations in metamorphic rocks and magnetic anomalies reflecting compositional variations suggesting that most linear features in the southern part of the quadrangle probably are related to lithologic variations brought about by folding and foliation of metamorphic rocks. A second important trend interval, N.14-35E., may be related to thrusting south of the Tintina fault zone, as high concentrations of linear features within this interval are found in areas of mapped thrusts. Low concentrations of linear features are found in areas of most igneous intrusives. High concentrations of linear features do not correspond to areas of mineralization in any consistent or significant way that would allow concentration patterns to be easily used as an aid in locating areas of mineralization. The results of this remote sensing study indicate that there are several possibly important areas where further detailed studies are warranted.

Trends in Firearm Suicide among Older American Males: 1979-1988.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Mark S.; And Others

1994-01-01

Used National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality data to perform age-specific analysis of linear trends in suicide. Found males aged 65+ years were most likely to use firearms. In 1988, nearly 80% of suicides by older males were committed with firearms. Firearm-related suicide rates were much lower for blacks than whites 65 and…

On summary measure analysis of linear trend repeated measures data: performance comparison with two competing methods.

PubMed

Vossoughi, Mehrdad; Ayatollahi, S M T; Towhidi, Mina; Ketabchi, Farzaneh

2012-03-22

The summary measure approach (SMA) is sometimes the only applicable tool for the analysis of repeated measurements in medical research, especially when the number of measurements is relatively large. This study aimed to describe techniques based on summary measures for the analysis of linear trend repeated measures data and then to compare performances of SMA, linear mixed model (LMM), and unstructured multivariate approach (UMA). Practical guidelines based on the least squares regression slope and mean of response over time for each subject were provided to test time, group, and interaction effects. Through Monte Carlo simulation studies, the efficacy of SMA vs. LMM and traditional UMA, under different types of covariance structures, was illustrated. All the methods were also employed to analyze two real data examples. Based on the simulation and example results, it was found that the SMA completely dominated the traditional UMA and performed convincingly close to the best-fitting LMM in testing all the effects. However, the LMM was not often robust and led to non-sensible results when the covariance structure for errors was misspecified. The results emphasized discarding the UMA which often yielded extremely conservative inferences as to such data. It was shown that summary measure is a simple, safe and powerful approach in which the loss of efficiency compared to the best-fitting LMM was generally negligible. The SMA is recommended as the first choice to reliably analyze the linear trend data with a moderate to large number of measurements and/or small to moderate sample sizes.

The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2016-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

1995-01-01

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Analysis and generation of groundwater concentration time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crăciun, Maria; Vamoş, Călin; Suciu, Nicolae

2018-01-01

Concentration time series are provided by simulated concentrations of a nonreactive solute transported in groundwater, integrated over the transverse direction of a two-dimensional computational domain and recorded at the plume center of mass. The analysis of a statistical ensemble of time series reveals subtle features that are not captured by the first two moments which characterize the approximate Gaussian distribution of the two-dimensional concentration fields. The concentration time series exhibit a complex preasymptotic behavior driven by a nonstationary trend and correlated fluctuations with time-variable amplitude. Time series with almost the same statistics are generated by successively adding to a time-dependent trend a sum of linear regression terms, accounting for correlations between fluctuations around the trend and their increments in time, and terms of an amplitude modulated autoregressive noise of order one with time-varying parameter. The algorithm generalizes mixing models used in probability density function approaches. The well-known interaction by exchange with the mean mixing model is a special case consisting of a linear regression with constant coefficients.

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

Characterizing trends in fruit and vegetable intake in the US by self-report and by supply-and-disappearance data: 2001-2014

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Objective: To examine the comparability of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake data in the US from 2001-2014 between data acquired from two national data collection programs. Design: Cross-sectional analysis. Linear regression models estimated trends in daily per-capita intake of total F&V. Pooled di...

The increase in symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood among Icelandic adolescents: time trend between 2006 and 2016.

PubMed

Thorisdottir, Ingibjorg E; Asgeirsdottir, Bryndis B; Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig; Allegrante, John P; Sigfusdottir, Inga D

2017-10-01

Both research and popular media reports suggest that adolescent mental health has been deteriorating across societies with advanced economies. This study sought to describe the trends in self-reported symptoms of depressed mood and anxiety among Icelandic adolescents. Data for this study come from repeated, cross-sectional, population-based school surveys of 43 482 Icelandic adolescents in 9th and 10th grade, with six waves of pooled data from 2006 to 2016. We used analysis of variance, linear regression and binomial logistic regression to examine trends in symptom scores of anxiety and depressed mood over time. Gender differences in trends of high symptoms were also tested for interactions. Linear regression analysis showed a significant linear increase over the course of the study period in mean symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood for girls only; however, symptoms of anxiety among boys decreased. The proportion of adolescents reporting high depressive symptoms increased by 1.6% for boys and 6.8% for girls; the proportion of those reporting high anxiety symptoms increased by 1.3% for boys and 8.6% for girls. Over the study period, the odds for reporting high depressive symptoms and high anxiety symptoms were significantly higher for both genders. Girls were more likely to report high symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood than boys. Self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood have increased over time among Icelandic adolescents. Our findings suggest that future research needs to look beyond mean changes and examine the trends among those adolescents who report high symptoms of emotional distress. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Shyla A.

2003-01-01

Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Erickson, M. P.; Smith, M. R.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1999-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming.

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

A reassessment of the Archean-Mesoproterozoic tectonic development of the southeastern Chhattisgarh Basin, Central India through detailed aeromagnetic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridhar, M.; Ramesh Babu, V.; Markandeyulu, A.; Raju, B. V. S. N.; Chaturvedi, A. K.; Roy, M. K.

2017-08-01

We constrained the geological framework over polydeformed Paleoproterozoic Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and addressed the tectonic evolution of Singhora basin in the fringes of Bastar Craton, central India by utilizing aeromagnetic data interpretation, 2.5D forward modelling and 3D magnetic susceptibility inversions. The Sonakhan Greenstone Belt exposes volcano-sedimentary sequences of the Sonakhan Group within NNW-SSE to NW-SE trending linear belts surrounded by granite gneisses, which are unconformably overlain by sedimentary rocks of Chhattisgarh Basin. The orientations of aeromagnetic anomalies are coincident with geological trends and appear to correlate with lithology and geologic structure. Regional magnetic anomalies and lineaments reveal both NNW-SSE and NE-SW trends. Prominent E-W trending linear, high amplitude magnetic anomalies are interpreted as the Trans-Chhattisgarh Aeromagnetic Lineament (TCAL). NW-SE trending aeromagnetic signatures related to Sonakhan Greenstone Belt extends below the Singhora sedimentary rocks and forms the basement in the west. The analysis suggests that TCAL is a block fault with northern block down-thrown and affected the basement rocks comprising the Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and Samblapur Granitoids. The episode of faulting represented by the TCAL is pre-Singhora sedimentation and played a vital role in basin evolution. The basement configuration image generated by estimates of depth to magnetic basement suggests a complex pattern of NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending depressions separated by a linear N-S trending basement ridge. It is inferred from the 3D magnetic susceptibility inversion that the thickness of sediments is more towards the eastern basin margin and the N-S ridge is a manifestation of post sedimentary faulting. Results of 2.5D modelling of a WNW-ESE profile across the Singhora Basin combined with results from 3D inversion suggest suggests the basin subsidence was controlled by NE-SW trending regional faults in an active system. The basin geometry evolved by E-W block faulting overprinted by NE-SW trending pre- to syn-depositional normal faults generating NE-SW depression, which are affected by N-S trend post-sedimentary faulting. Though the present work relates the basin evolution with the initiation of rift basin, it warrants further work to establish the deformation within the basin pertaining to the proximal thrust and uplift along the craton fringe.

Secular trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity across Australian states: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ho, Ngoc-Thuy-Vi Sophia; Olds, Tim; Schranz, Natasha; Maher, Carol

2017-05-01

To describe secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children in each state and territory. Systematic search and numerical meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted to identify all sources that objectively measured the height and weight of Australian children (aged 2-18 years) and had a sample size of at least 300. Raw and summary data were requested from authors and divided into age×sex×state×yearly slices to derive estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Following a double arcsine transformation to facilitate meta-analysis, all estimates were standardised for age, stratified by sex and analysed using sample-weighted non-linear regressions. The systematic search identified 73 eligible sources (47 raw and 26 summary datasets), with 72.8% of data sourced from Victoria and South Australia. Prevalence trends varied from state to state, with three states or territories showing a marked plateau, two showing a decline in the more recent years and three showing continued linear increases. Tasmania and Northern Territory generally had the highest prevalence (30.2% and 24.3% overweight and obesity respectively), and the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest (12.4% overweight and obesity). Prevalence, as well as prevalence trends, varied amongst Australian states and territories. At a national level, the prevalence trend has nearly plateaued for the past 15 years. However, upward prevalence trends appear to be persisting in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Findings highlight the need for ongoing efforts to address the issue of childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Search for Mountain Waves in MLS Stratospheric Limb Radiances from the Winter Northern Hemisphere: Data Analysis and Global Mountain Wave Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-02-11

the general circulation of the middle atmosphere, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 323, 693–705. Anton , H. (2000), Elementary Linear Algebra ...Because the saturated radiances may depend slightly on tangent height as the limb path length decreases, a linear trend (described by parameters a and b...track days and interpolated onto the same limb-track orbits. The color bar scale for radiance variance is linear . (b) Digital elevations of northern

A Visual Analytics Approach for Station-Based Air Quality Data

PubMed Central

Du, Yi; Ma, Cuixia; Wu, Chao; Xu, Xiaowei; Guo, Yike; Zhou, Yuanchun; Li, Jianhui

2016-01-01

With the deployment of multi-modality and large-scale sensor networks for monitoring air quality, we are now able to collect large and multi-dimensional spatio-temporal datasets. For these sensed data, we present a comprehensive visual analysis approach for air quality analysis. This approach integrates several visual methods, such as map-based views, calendar views, and trends views, to assist the analysis. Among those visual methods, map-based visual methods are used to display the locations of interest, and the calendar and the trends views are used to discover the linear and periodical patterns. The system also provides various interaction tools to combine the map-based visualization, trends view, calendar view and multi-dimensional view. In addition, we propose a self-adaptive calendar-based controller that can flexibly adapt the changes of data size and granularity in trends view. Such a visual analytics system would facilitate big-data analysis in real applications, especially for decision making support. PMID:28029117

A Visual Analytics Approach for Station-Based Air Quality Data.

PubMed

Du, Yi; Ma, Cuixia; Wu, Chao; Xu, Xiaowei; Guo, Yike; Zhou, Yuanchun; Li, Jianhui

2016-12-24

With the deployment of multi-modality and large-scale sensor networks for monitoring air quality, we are now able to collect large and multi-dimensional spatio-temporal datasets. For these sensed data, we present a comprehensive visual analysis approach for air quality analysis. This approach integrates several visual methods, such as map-based views, calendar views, and trends views, to assist the analysis. Among those visual methods, map-based visual methods are used to display the locations of interest, and the calendar and the trends views are used to discover the linear and periodical patterns. The system also provides various interaction tools to combine the map-based visualization, trends view, calendar view and multi-dimensional view. In addition, we propose a self-adaptive calendar-based controller that can flexibly adapt the changes of data size and granularity in trends view. Such a visual analytics system would facilitate big-data analysis in real applications, especially for decision making support.

Publication Trends of Doctoral Students in Three Fields from 1965-1995.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Wade M.

2000-01-01

Describes a study that investigated the publication rates of successful doctoral students in the fields of analytical chemistry, experimental psychology, and American literature. Data analysis, including linear regression analysis, revealed differences in publication rates and in solo authorship that mirrored differences between the fields as a…

Personality and Gastric Cancer Screening Attendance: 
A Cross-Sectional Analysis from the Miyagi Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Arai, Shizuha; Nakaya, Naoki; Kakizaki, Masako; Ohmori-Matsuda, Kaori; Shimazu, Taichi; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Fukao, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro

2009-01-01

Objective To determine the associations between personality subscales and attendance at gastric cancer screenings in Japan. Methods A total of 21,911 residents in rural Japan who completed a short form of the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised (EPQ-R) and a questionnaire on various health habits including the number of gastric cancer screenings attended were included in the primary analysis. We defined gastric cancer screening compliance as attendance at gastric cancer screening every year for the previous 5 years; all other patterns of attendance were defined as non-compliance. We defined gastric cancer screening visiting as attendance at 1 or more screenings during the previous 5 years; lack of attendance was defined as non-visiting. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of gastric cancer screening compliance and visiting according to 4 score levels that corresponded to the 4 EPQ-R subscales (extraversion, neuroticism, psychoticism, and lie). Result Extraversion had a significant linear, positive association with both compliance and visiting (trend, P < 0.001 for both). Neuroticism had a significant linear, inverse association with compliance (trend, P = 0.047), but not with visiting (trend, P = 0.21). Psychoticism had a significant linear, inverse association with both compliance and visiting (trend, P < 0.001 for both). Lie had no association with either compliance or visiting. Conclusion The personality traits of extraversion, neuroticism, and psychoticism were significantly associated with gastric cancer screening attendance. A better understanding of the association between personality and attendance could lead to the establishment of effective campaigns to motivate people to attend cancer screenings. PMID:19164872

Beyond linear methods of data analysis: time series analysis and its applications in renal research.

PubMed

Gupta, Ashwani K; Udrea, Andreea

2013-01-01

Analysis of temporal trends in medicine is needed to understand normal physiology and to study the evolution of disease processes. It is also useful for monitoring response to drugs and interventions, and for accountability and tracking of health care resources. In this review, we discuss what makes time series analysis unique for the purposes of renal research and its limitations. We also introduce nonlinear time series analysis methods and provide examples where these have advantages over linear methods. We review areas where these computational methods have found applications in nephrology ranging from basic physiology to health services research. Some examples include noninvasive assessment of autonomic function in patients with chronic kidney disease, dialysis-dependent renal failure and renal transplantation. Time series models and analysis methods have been utilized in the characterization of mechanisms of renal autoregulation and to identify the interaction between different rhythms of nephron pressure flow regulation. They have also been used in the study of trends in health care delivery. Time series are everywhere in nephrology and analyzing them can lead to valuable knowledge discovery. The study of time trends of vital signs, laboratory parameters and the health status of patients is inherent to our everyday clinical practice, yet formal models and methods for time series analysis are not fully utilized. With this review, we hope to familiarize the reader with these techniques in order to assist in their proper use where appropriate.

Finite Element Analysis and Optimization of Flexure Bearing for Linear Motor Compressor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khot, Maruti; Gawali, Bajirao

Nowadays linear motor compressors are commonly used in miniature cryocoolers instead of rotary compressors because rotary compressors apply large radial forces to the piston, which provide no useful work, cause large amount of wear and usually require lubrication. Recent trends favour flexure supported configurations for long life. The present work aims at designing and geometrical optimization of flexure bearings using finite element analysis and the development of design charts for selection purposes. The work also covers the manufacturing of flexures using different materials and the validation of the experimental finite element analysis results.

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, L.M.; Clapp, N.E.; Day, C.S.; Lawkins, W.F.

1999-01-12

This research discloses methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming. 76 figs.

Anaemia, prenatal iron use, and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Haider, Batool A; Olofin, Ibironke; Wang, Molin; Spiegelman, Donna; Ezzati, Majid; Fawzi, Wafaie W

2013-06-21

To summarise evidence on the associations of maternal anaemia and prenatal iron use with maternal haematological and adverse pregnancy outcomes; and to evaluate potential exposure-response relations of dose of iron, duration of use, and haemoglobin concentration in prenatal period with pregnancy outcomes. Systematic review and meta-analysis Searches of PubMed and Embase for studies published up to May 2012 and references of review articles. Randomised trials of prenatal iron use and prospective cohort studies of prenatal anaemia; cross sectional and case-control studies were excluded. 48 randomised trials (17 793 women) and 44 cohort studies (1 851 682 women) were included. Iron use increased maternal mean haemoglobin concentration by 4.59 (95% confidence interval 3.72 to 5.46) g/L compared with controls and significantly reduced the risk of anaemia (relative risk 0.50, 0.42 to 0.59), iron deficiency (0.59, 0.46 to 0.79), iron deficiency anaemia (0.40, 0.26 to 0.60), and low birth weight (0.81, 0.71 to 0.93). The effect of iron on preterm birth was not significant (relative risk 0.84, 0.68 to 1.03). Analysis of cohort studies showed a significantly higher risk of low birth weight (adjusted odds ratio 1.29, 1.09 to 1.53) and preterm birth (1.21, 1.13 to 1.30) with anaemia in the first or second trimester. Exposure-response analysis indicated that for every 10 mg increase in iron dose/day, up to 66 mg/day, the relative risk of maternal anaemia was 0.88 (0.84 to 0.92) (P for linear trend<0.001). Birth weight increased by 15.1 (6.0 to 24.2) g (P for linear trend=0.005) and risk of low birth weight decreased by 3% (relative risk 0.97, 0.95 to 0.98) for every 10 mg increase in dose/day (P for linear trend<0.001). Duration of use was not significantly associated with the outcomes after adjustment for dose. Furthermore, for each 1 g/L increase in mean haemoglobin, birth weight increased by 14.0 (6.8 to 21.8) g (P for linear trend=0.002); however, mean haemoglobin was not associated with the risk of low birth weight and preterm birth. No evidence of a significant effect on duration of gestation, small for gestational age births, and birth length was noted. Daily prenatal use of iron substantially improved birth weight in a linear dose-response fashion, probably leading to a reduction in risk of low birth weight. An improvement in prenatal mean haemoglobin concentration linearly increased birth weight.

The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

2017-11-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2009-01-01

Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

Series length used during trend analysis affects sensitivity to changes in progression rate in the ocular hypertension treatment study.

PubMed

Gardiner, Stuart K; Demirel, Shaban; De Moraes, Carlos Gustavo; Liebmann, Jeffrey M; Cioffi, George A; Ritch, Robert; Gordon, Mae O; Kass, Michael A

2013-02-15

Trend analysis techniques to detect glaucomatous progression typically assume a constant rate of change. This study uses data from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study to assess whether this assumption decreases sensitivity to changes in progression rate, by including earlier periods of stability. Series of visual fields (mean 24 per eye) completed at 6-month intervals from participants randomized initially to observation were split into subseries before and after the initiation of treatment (the "split-point"). The mean deviation rate of change (MDR) was derived using these entire subseries, and using only the window length (W) tests nearest the split-point, for different window lengths of W tests. A generalized estimating equation model was used to detect changes in MDR occurring at the split-point. Using shortened subseries with W = 7 tests, the MDR slowed by 0.142 dB/y upon initiation of treatment (P < 0.001), and the proportion of eyes showing "rapid deterioration" (MDR <-0.5 dB/y with P < 5%) decreased from 11.8% to 6.5% (P < 0.001). Using the entire sequence, no significant change in MDR was detected (P = 0.796), and there was no change in the proportion of eyes progressing (P = 0.084). Window lengths 6 ≤ W ≤ 9 produced similar benefits. Event analysis revealed a beneficial treatment effect in this dataset. This effect was not detected by linear trend analysis applied to entire series, but was detected when using shorter subseries of length between six and nine fields. Using linear trend analysis on the entire field sequence may not be optimal for detecting and monitoring progression. Nonlinear analyses may be needed for long series of fields. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000125.).

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2017-01-01

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE PAGES

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2016-10-20

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

LANDSAT imagery analysis: An aid for predicting landslide prone areas for highway construction. [in Arkansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macdonald, H. C.; Grubbs, R. S.

1975-01-01

The most obvious landform features of geologic significance revealed on LANDSAT imagery are linear trends or lineaments. These trends were found to correspond, at least to a large degree, with unmapped faults or complex fracture zones. LANDSAT imagery analysis in northern Arkansas revealed a lineament complex which provides a remarkable correlation with landslide-prone areas along major highway routes. The weathering properties of various rock types, which are considered in designing stable cut slopes and drainage structures, appear to be adversely influenced by the location and trends of LANDSAT defined lineaments. Geologic interpretation of LANDSAT imagery, where applicable and utilized effectively, provides the highway engineer with a tool for predicting and evaluating landslide-prone areas.

Apparatus and method for epileptic seizure detection using non-linear techniques

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1998-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically detecting epileptic seizures by monitoring and analyzing brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; determining that one or more trends in the nonlinear measures indicate a seizure, and providing notification of seizure occurrence.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Foy, Benjamin; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been estimating NO2 columns from space for over 10 years, and these have been used to estimate emissions and emission trends for point and area sources all over the world. In this study we evaluate the trends in NO2 columns over 54 cities in the USA and Canada to identify the long term trends due to air quality policies, the impact of the Great Recession, and the weekday-weekend effect. A multiple linear regression model is used to fit annual, seasonal and weekly factors for individual swath retrievals along with the impact of temperature, windmore » speed and pixel size. For most cities, the correlation coefficients of the model fit ranges from 0.47 to 0.76. There have been strong reductions in NO2 columns, with annual decreases of up to 7% per year in most cities. During the years of the Great Recession, NO2 columns were as much as 30% lower than they would have been had they followed the linear annual trend. The analysis yielded insights into the timing of the reductions, with some cities in the northwest and in the east experiencing reductions in 2008 already, and most areas back to where they would have been based on the uniform trend by 2011. The analysis also finds that reductions in columns during the weekend vary significantly from city to city, with a range in reductions of 10%-30% on Saturdays, and 20%-50% on Sundays.« less

Long-term variations of the upper atmosphere parameters on Rome ionosonde observations and their interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrone, Loredana; Mikhailov, Andrey; Cesaroni, Claudio; Alfonsi, Lucilla; Santis, Angelo De; Pezzopane, Michael; Scotto, Carlo

2017-09-01

A recently proposed self-consistent approach to the analysis of thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends has been applied to Rome ionosonde summer noontime observations for the (1957-2015) period. This approach includes: (i) a method to extract ionospheric parameter long-term variations; (ii) a method to retrieve from observed foF1 neutral composition (O, O2, N2), exospheric temperature, Tex and the total solar EUV flux with λ < 1050 Å; and (iii) a combined analysis of the ionospheric and thermospheric parameter long-term variations using the theory of ionospheric F-layer formation. Atomic oxygen, [O] and [O]/[N2] ratio control foF1 and foF2 while neutral temperature, Tex controls hmF2 long-term variations. Noontime foF2 and foF1 long-term variations demonstrate a negative linear trend estimated over the (1962-2010) period which is mainly due to atomic oxygen decrease after ˜1990. A linear trend in (δhmF2)11y estimated over the (1962-2010) period is very small and insignificant reflecting the absence of any significant trend in neutral temperature. The retrieved neutral gas density, ρ atomic oxygen, [O] and exospheric temperature, Tex long-term variations are controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity, i.e. they have a natural origin. The residual trends estimated over the period of ˜5 solar cycles (1957-2015) are very small (<0.5% per decade) and statistically insignificant.

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhe; Fu, Yingchun; Woodcock, Curtis; Olofsson, Pontus; Vogelmann, James; Holden, Christopher; Wang, Min; Dai, Shu; Yu, Yang

2016-01-01

An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Search for Trends and Periodicities in Inter-hemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.

2018-02-01

Understanding the role of coupled solar and internal ocean dynamics on hemispheric climate variability is critical to climate modelling. We have analysed here 165 year long annual northern hemispheric (NH) and southern hemispheric (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data employing spectral and statistical techniques to identify the imprints of solar and ocean-atmospheric processes, if any. We reconstructed the eigen modes of NH-SST and SH-SST to reveal non-linear oscillations superimposed on the monotonic trend. Our analysis reveals that the first eigen mode of NH-SST and SH-SST representing long-term trend of SST variability accounts for 15-23% variance. Interestingly, these components are matching with first eigen mode (99% variance) of the total solar irradiance (TSI) suggesting possible impact of solar activity on long-term SST variation. Furthermore, spectral analysis of SSA reconstructed signal revealed statistically significant periodicities of 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, 10 ± 1, 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years in both NH-SST and SH-SST data. The major harmonics centred at 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, and 10 ± 1 years are similar to solar periodicities and hence may represent solar forcing, while the components peaking at around 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years apparently falls in the frequency bands of El-Nino-Southern Oscillations linked to the oceanic internal processes. Our analyses also suggest evidence for the amplitude modulation of 9-11 and 21-22 year solar cycles, respectively, by 104 and 163 years in northern and southern hemispheric SST data. The absence of the above periodic oscillations in CO2 fails to suggest its role on observed inter-hemispheric SST difference. The cross-plot analysis also revealed strong influence of solar activity on linear trend of NH- and SH-SST in addition to small contribution from CO2. Our study concludes that (1) the long-term trends in northern and southern hemispheric SST variability show considerable synchronicity with cyclic warming and cooling phases and (2) the difference in cyclic forcing and non-linear modulations stemming from solar variability as a possible source of hemispheric SST differences.

Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2015-07-01

Although the impact of extreme heat and cold on mortality has been documented in recent years, few studies have investigated whether variation in susceptibility to extreme temperatures has changed in Japan. We used data on daily total mortality and mean temperatures in Fukuoka, Japan, for 1973-2012. We used time-series analysis to assess the effects of extreme hot and low temperatures on all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, gender, and age, adjusting for time trends. We used a multivariate meta-analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate pooled non-linear lag-response relationships associated with extreme temperatures on mortality. The relative risk of mortality increased during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time. The mortality risk was higher during cold extremes for the entire study period, with a dispersed pattern across decades. Meta-analysis showed that both heat and cold extremes increased the risk of mortality. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for several days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Our study provides quantitative evidence that extreme heat and low temperatures were significantly and non-linearly associated with the increased risk of mortality with substantial variation. Our results suggest that timely preventative measures are important for extreme high temperatures, whereas several days' protection should be provided for extreme low temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in reproductive health knowledge following a health education intervention among adolescents in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Rusakaniko, S; Mbizvo, M T; Kasule, J; Gupta, V; Kinoti, S N; Mpanju-Shumbushu, W; Sebina-Zziwa, J; Mwateba, R; Padayachy, J

1997-01-01

Unwanted teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections and the attendant morbidity and mortality necessitate the need for understanding factors influencing adolescent sexuality and the implementation of programmes designed to improve their knowledge, reproductive behaviour, sexual and reproductive health. To determine the impact of an intervention package on knowledge levels of various reproductive health issues through trend analysis. Randomized controlled trial of a health education intervention in schools stratified for representativeness. Rural and urban secondary schools in Zimbabwe. 1,689 students recruited from 11 secondary schools in Mashonaland Central. Knowledge level before and after intervention. The demographic characteristics of the pupils at baseline, five months and nine months were comparable between the two groups. There was an overall increase in knowledge on menstruation. Students from the intervention schools were more likely to have correct knowledge over time on aspects of reproductive biology. A significant linear trend (p = 0.017) was observed in the area of family planning and contraception. A linear decreasing trend (p = 0.001) was observed on pregnancy risk. Though not significantly linear, the general trend of knowledge levels in all the areas of reproductive health, pregnancy risk, STDs and HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend, from 20% to 96%. Worth noting was that in all the areas the intervention group had knowledge above that in the control group. The reproductive health education intervention had an impact on aspects of reproductive biology and contraception as measured by the increased scoring at follow up when comparing intervention and control schools. The overall findings point to the need for early school based reproductive health education programmes incooperating correct information on reproductive biology and the prevention of subsequent reproductive morbidity by imparting information on non-risk behaviour during the early developmental years.

Apparatus and method for epileptic seizure detection using non-linear techniques

DOEpatents

Hively, L.M.; Clapp, N.E.; Daw, C.S.; Lawkins, W.F.

1998-04-28

Methods and apparatus are disclosed for automatically detecting epileptic seizures by monitoring and analyzing brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; determining that one or more trends in the nonlinear measures indicate a seizure, and providing notification of seizure occurrence. 76 figs.

Heuristics for Understanding the Concepts of Interaction, Polynomial Trend, and the General Linear Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Bruce

The relationship between analysis of variance (ANOVA) methods and their analogs (analysis of covariance and multiple analyses of variance and covariance--collectively referred to as OVA methods) and the more general analytic case is explored. A small heuristic data set is used, with a hypothetical sample of 20 subjects, randomly assigned to five…

Cross-sectional Internet-based survey of Japanese permanent daytime workers' sleep and daily rest periods.

PubMed

Ikeda, Hiroki; Kubo, Tomohide; Sasaki, Takeshi; Liu, Xinxin; Matsuo, Tomoaki; So, Rina; Matsumoto, Shun; Yamauchi, Takashi; Takahashi, Masaya

2018-05-25

This study aimed to describe the sleep quantity, sleep quality, and daily rest periods (DRPs) of Japanese permanent daytime workers. Information about the usual DRP, sleep quantity, and sleep quality (Japanese version of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index: PSQI-J) of 3,867 permanent daytime workers in Japan was gathered through an Internet-based survey. This information was analyzed and divided into the following eight DRP groups: <10, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and ≥16 h. The sleep durations for workers in the <10, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and ≥16 h DRP groups were found to be 5.3, 5.9, 6.1, 6.3, 6.5, 6.7, 6.7, and 6.9 h, respectively. The trend analysis revealed a significant linear trend as the shorter the DRP, the shorter was the sleep duration. The PSQI-J scores for the <10, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and ≥16 h DRP groups were 7.1, 6.7, 6.7, 6.3, 6.0 (5.999), 5.6, 5.2, and 5.2, respectively. The trend analysis revealed a significant linear trend as the shorter the DRP, the lower was the sleep quality. This study described sleep quantity, sleep quality, and DRP in Japanese daytime workers. It was found that a shorter DRP was associated with poorer sleep quantity as well as quality.

Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced metabolic-activities and shortened crop-duration. Likewise, increased Tmin may result in lesser crop and biomass yields owing to the increased respiration.

Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

2008-12-01

We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is produced in the processed waveform. This artificial linear trend degrades the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting, although the forecasting result is expected to be robust against the existence of short-period noise [Tsushima et al., 2008a]. Since the bottom pressure show gradual increase (or decrease) in the tsunami source region [Tsushima et al., 2008b], it is important to remove the linear trend not related to the tsunami generation from the data before fed into the analysis. Therefore, the reduction of the noise in sub-mHz band is critical for the forecasting small tsunamis. Applying a kind of frequency filters to eliminate this noise cannot be a solution for this problem because actual tsunami signals may also contain components of this frequency band. We investigate whether any statistical modelings of the noise are effective for reducing the sub-mHz noise.

Experiment to evaluate feasibility of utilizing Skylab-EREP remote sensing data for tectonic analysis of the Bighorn Mountains region, Wyoming-Montana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoppin, R. A. (Principal Investigator)

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Analysis of SL-3, S-190A, and S-190B color frames indicates two sets of linears obliquely cutting across the east-west trending Owl Creek-Bridger uplifts. A northwest set of faults and folds has been mapped previously but the imagery indicates some changes and addition of detail can be made. A less pronounced east-northeast set of linear alignments (drainage segments, lithologic contacts, possible faults) extends into the southeast part of the Big Horn Basin.

Circulating interleukin-8 and tumor necrosis factor-α are associated with hot flashes in healthy postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Huang, Wan-Yu; Hsin, I-Lun; Chen, Dar-Ren; Chang, Chia-Chu; Kor, Chew-Teng; Chen, Ting-Yu; Wu, Hung-Ming

2017-01-01

Hot flashes have been postulated to be linked to systemic inflammation. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between hot flashes, pro-inflammatory factors, and leukocytes in healthy, non-obese postmenopausal women. In this cross-sectional study, a total of 202 women aged 45-60 years were stratified into one of four groups according to their hot-flash status: never experienced hot flashes (Group N), mild hot flashes (Group m), moderate hot flashes (Group M), and severe hot flashes (Group S). Variables measured in this study included clinical parameters, hot flash experience, leukocytes, and fasting plasma levels of nine circulating cytokines/chemokines measured by using multiplex assays. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the associations of hot flashes with these pro-inflammatory factors. The study was performed in a hospital medical center. The mean values of leukocyte number were not different between these four groups. The hot flash status had a positive tendency toward increased levels of circulating IL-6 (P-trend = 0.049), IL-8 (P-trend < 0.001), TNF-α (P-trend = 0.008), and MIP1β (P-trend = 0.04). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that hot-flash severity was significantly associated with IL-8 (P-trend < 0.001) and TNFα (P-trend = 0.007) among these nine cytokines/chemokines after adjustment for age, menopausal duration, BMI and FSH. Multivariate analysis further revealed that severe hot flashes were strongly associated with a higher IL-8 (% difference, 37.19%; 95% confidence interval, 14.98,63.69; P < 0.001) and TNFα (51.27%; 6.64,114.57; P < 0.05). The present study provides evidence that hot flashes are associated with circulating IL-8 and TNF-α in healthy postmenopausal women. It suggests that hot flashes might be related to low-grade systemic inflammation.

Circulating interleukin-8 and tumor necrosis factor-α are associated with hot flashes in healthy postmenopausal women

PubMed Central

Huang, Wan-Yu; Hsin, I-Lun; Chen, Dar-Ren; Chang, Chia-Chu; Kor, Chew-Teng; Chen, Ting-Yu

2017-01-01

Introduction Hot flashes have been postulated to be linked to systemic inflammation. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between hot flashes, pro-inflammatory factors, and leukocytes in healthy, non-obese postmenopausal women. Participants and design In this cross-sectional study, a total of 202 women aged 45–60 years were stratified into one of four groups according to their hot-flash status: never experienced hot flashes (Group N), mild hot flashes (Group m), moderate hot flashes (Group M), and severe hot flashes (Group S). Variables measured in this study included clinical parameters, hot flash experience, leukocytes, and fasting plasma levels of nine circulating cytokines/chemokines measured by using multiplex assays. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the associations of hot flashes with these pro-inflammatory factors. Settings The study was performed in a hospital medical center. Results The mean values of leukocyte number were not different between these four groups. The hot flash status had a positive tendency toward increased levels of circulating IL-6 (P-trend = 0.049), IL-8 (P-trend < 0.001), TNF-α (P-trend = 0.008), and MIP1β (P-trend = 0.04). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that hot-flash severity was significantly associated with IL-8 (P-trend < 0.001) and TNFα (P-trend = 0.007) among these nine cytokines/chemokines after adjustment for age, menopausal duration, BMI and FSH. Multivariate analysis further revealed that severe hot flashes were strongly associated with a higher IL-8 (% difference, 37.19%; 95% confidence interval, 14.98,63.69; P < 0.001) and TNFα (51.27%; 6.64,114.57; P < 0.05). Conclusion The present study provides evidence that hot flashes are associated with circulating IL-8 and TNF-α in healthy postmenopausal women. It suggests that hot flashes might be related to low-grade systemic inflammation. PMID:28846735

Total ozone trends and variability during 1979-2012 from merged data sets of various satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chehade, W.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2014-07-01

The study presents a long-term statistical trend analysis of total ozone data sets obtained from various satellites. A multi-variate linear regression was applied to annual mean zonal mean data using various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables that represent dynamical and chemical processes which modify global ozone distributions in a changing climate. The study investigated the magnitude and zonal distribution of the different atmospheric chemical and dynamical factors contributing to long-term total ozone changes. The regression model included the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the 11-year solar cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), stratospheric aerosol loading describing the effects from major volcanic eruptions, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic and Antarctic oscillation (AO/AAO), and accumulated eddy heat flux (EHF), the latter representing changes due to the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The total ozone column data set used here comprises the Solar Backscater Ultraviolet SBUV/SBUV-2 merged ozone data set (MOD) V8.6, the merged data set of the Solar Backscaterr Ultraviolet, the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument SBUV/TOMS/OMI (1979-2012) MOD V8.0 and the merged data set of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, the Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartograpHY and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 (GSG) (1995-2012). The trend analysis was performed for twenty-six 5° wide latitude bands from 65° S to 65° N, and the analysis explained most of the ozone variability to within 70 to 90%. The results show that QBO dominates the ozone variability in the tropics (±7 DU) while at higher latitudes, the dynamical indices, AO/AAO and eddy heat flux, have substantial influence on total ozone variations by up to ±10 DU. The contribution from volcanic aerosols is only prominent during the major eruption periods (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo), and together with the ENSO signal, is more evident in the Northern Hemisphere. The signature of the solar cycle covers all latitudes and contributes about 10 DU from solar maximum to solar minimum. EESC is found to be a main contributor to the long-term ozone decline and the trend changes after the end of the 1990s. From the EESC fits, statistically significant upward trends after 1997 were found in the extratropics, which points at the slowing of ozone decline and the onset of ozone recovery. The EESC based trends are compared with the trends obtained from the statistical piecewise linear trend (PWLT) model (known as hockey stick) with a turnaround in 1997 to examine the differences between both approaches. In case of the SBUV merged V8.6 data the EESC and PWLT trends before and after 1997 are in good agreement (within 2 σ), however, the positive post-1997 linear trends from the PWLT regression are not significant within 2 σ. A sensitivity study is carried out by comparing the regression results, using SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 merged time series (1979-2012) and a merged data set combining SBUV/SBUV-2 (1979-June 1995) and GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 ("GSG") WFDOAS (Weighting Function DOAS) (July 1995-2012) as well as SBUV/TOMS/OMI MOD V8.0 (1979-2012) in the regression analysis in order to investigate the uncertainty in the long-term trends due to different ozone data sets and data versions. Replacing the late SBUV/SBUV-2 merged data record with GSG data (unscaled and adjusted) leads to very similar results demonstrating the high consistency between satellite data sets. However, the comparison of the new SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 with the MOD V8.0 and MOD8.6/GSG data showed somewhat smaller sensitivities with regard to several proxies as well as the linear EESC trends. On the other hand, the PWLT trends after 1997 show some differences, however, within the 2 σ error bars the PWLT trends agree with each other for all three data sets.

Analysis of photo linear elements, Laramie Mountains, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackstone, D. L., Jr.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Photo linear features in the Precambrian rocks of the Laramie Mountains are delineated, and the azimuths plotted on rose diagrams. Three strike directions are dominant, two of which are in the northeast quadrant. Laramide folds in the Laramie basin to the west of the mountains appear to have the same trend, and apparently have been controlled by response of the basement along fractures such as have been measured from the imagery.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z < -1.96) and an upward trend in annual maximum daily precipitation. Annual and monthly mean flows for most of the months in the Neka basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value < 0.05). Correlation coefficients for Kendall, Spearman's rank and linear regression are 0.43, 0.61, and 0.67, respectively. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation and streamflow trends showed a downward trend for the mean annual precipitation observed in the upstream part of the study area which is consistent with the streamflow trend. Also, there is a good correlation between monthly and seasonal precipitation and streamflow for all sub-basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

The Analysis of Leaf Shape Using Fractal Geometry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartvigsen, Gregg

2000-01-01

Describes ways to examine leaf structure and shape using fractal geometry. Students can test hypotheses using the leaves of replicated plants to look for non-linear trends in leaf shape along the stems of plants, across species, and under different environmental growth conditions. (SAH)

Trunk motion and gait characteristics of pregnant women when walking: report of a longitudinal study with a control group

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A longitudinal repeated measures design over pregnancy and post-birth, with a control group would provide insight into the mechanical adaptations of the body under conditions of changing load during a common female human lifespan condition, while minimizing the influences of inter human differences. The objective was to investigate systematic changes in the range of motion for the pelvic and thoracic segments of the spine, the motion between these segments (thoracolumbar spine) and temporospatial characteristics of step width, stride length and velocity during walking as pregnancy progresses and post-birth. Methods Nine pregnant women were investigated when walking along a walkway at a self-selected velocity using an 8 camera motion analysis system on four occasions throughout pregnancy and once post birth. A control group of twelve non-pregnant nulliparous women were tested on three occasions over the same time period. The existence of linear trends for change was investigated. Results As pregnancy progresses there was a significant linear trend for increase in step width (p = 0.05) and a significant linear trend for decrease in stride length (p = 0.05). Concurrently there was a significant linear trend for decrease in the range of motion of the pelvic segment (p = 0.03) and thoracolumbar spine (p = 0.01) about a vertical axis (side to side rotation), and the pelvic segment (p = 0.04) range of motion around an anterio-posterior axis (side tilt). Post-birth, step width readapted whereas pelvic (p = 0.02) and thoracic (p < 0.001) segment flexion-extension range of motion decreased and increased respectively. The magnitude of all changes was greater than that accounted for with natural variability with re testing. Conclusions As pregnancy progressed and post-birth there were significant linear trends seen in biomechanical changes when walking at a self-determined natural speed that were greater than that accounted for by natural variability with repeated testing. Not all adaptations were resolved by eight weeks post birth. PMID:23514204

NDVI-Based analysis on the influence of human activities on vegetation variation on Hainan Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hongxia; Dai, Shengpei; Xie, Zhenghui; Fang, Jihua

2018-02-01

Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we analyzed the predicted NDVI values variation and the influence of human activities on vegetation on Hainan Island during 2001-2015. We investigated the roles of human activities in vegetation variation, particularly from 2002 when implemented the Grain-for-Greenprogram on Hainan Island. The trend analysis, linear regression model and residual analysis were used to analyze the data. The results of the study showed that (1) The predicted vegetation on Hainan Island showed an general upward trend with a linear growth rate of 0.0025/10y (p<0.05) over the past 15 years. The areas where vegetation increasedaccounted for 52.28%, while the areas where vegetation decreased accounted for 47.72%. (2) The residual NDVI values across the region significantly increased, with a growth rate of 0.023/10y.The vegetation increased across 35.95% of Hainan Island, while it decreased in 20.2% of the area as a result of human activities. (3) In general, human activities had played a positive role in the vegetation increase on Hainan Island, and the residual NDVI trend of this region showed positive outcomes for vegetation variation after implementing ecological engineering projects. However, it indicated a growing risk of vegetation degradation in the coastal region of Hainan Island as a result of rapid urbanization, land reclamation.

Nitrogen fractionation in high-mass star-forming cores across the Galaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colzi, L.; Fontani, F.; Rivilla, V. M.; Sánchez-Monge, A.; Testi, L.; Beltrán, M. T.; Caselli, P.

2018-04-01

The fractionation of nitrogen (N) in star-forming regions is a poorly understood process. To put more stringent observational constraints on the N-fractionation, we have observed with the IRAM-30m telescope a large sample of 66 cores in massive star-forming regions. We targeted the (1-0) rotational transition of HN13C, HC15N, H13CN and HC15N, and derived the 14N/15N ratio for both HCN and HNC. We have completed this sample with that already observed by Colzi et al. (2018), and thus analysed a total sample of 87 sources. The 14N/15N ratios are distributed around the Proto-Solar Nebula value with a lower limit near the terrestrial atmosphere value (˜272). We have also derived the 14N/15N ratio as a function of the Galactocentric distance and deduced a linear trend based on unprecedented statistics. The Galactocentric dependences that we have found are consistent, in the slope, with past works but we have found a new local 14N/15N value of ˜400, i.e. closer to the Prosolar Nebula value. A second analysis was done, and a parabolic Galactocentric trend was found. Comparison with Galactic chemical evolution models shows that the slope until 8 kpc is consistent with the linear analysis, while the flattening trend above 8 kpc is well reproduced by the parabolic analysis.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Identifying trends in sediment discharge from alterations in upstream land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Osterkamp, W.R.

1995-01-01

Environmental monitoring is a primary reason for collecting sediment data. One emphasis of this monitoring is identification of trends in suspended sediment discharge. A stochastic equation was used to generate time series of annual suspended sediment discharges using statistics from gaging stations with drainage areas between 1606 and 1 805 230 km2. Annual sediment discharge was increased linearly to yield a given increase at the end of a fixed period and trend statistics were computed for each simulation series using Kendal's tau (at 0.05 significance level). A parameter was calculated from two factors that control trend detection time: (a) the magnitude of change in sediment discharge, and (b) the natural variability of sediment discharge. In this analysis the detection of a trend at most stations is well over 100 years for a 20% increase in sediment discharge. Further research is needed to assess the sensitivity of detecting trends at sediment stations.

Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of Viral Hepatitis in China (2003-2015): Implications for Prevention and Control Policies.

PubMed

Zhu, Bin; Liu, Jinlin; Fu, Yang; Zhang, Bo; Mao, Ying

2018-04-02

Viral hepatitis, as one of the most serious notifiable infectious diseases in China, takes heavy tolls from the infected and causes a severe economic burden to society, yet few studies have systematically explored the spatio-temporal epidemiology of viral hepatitis in China. This study aims to explore, visualize and compare the epidemiologic trends and spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis (A, B, C, E and unspecified, based on the classification of CDC) at the provincial level in China. The growth rates of incidence are used and converted to box plots to visualize the epidemiologic trends, with the linear trend being tested by chi-square linear by linear association test. Two complementary spatial cluster methods are used to explore the overall agglomeration level and identify spatial clusters: spatial autocorrelation analysis (measured by global and local Moran's I) and space-time scan analysis. Based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, the hotspots of hepatitis A remain relatively stable and gradually shrunk, with Yunnan and Sichuan successively moving out the high-high (HH) cluster area. The HH clustering feature of hepatitis B in China gradually disappeared with time. However, the HH cluster area of hepatitis C has gradually moved towards the west, while for hepatitis E, the provincial units around the Yangtze River Delta region have been revealing HH cluster features since 2005. The space-time scan analysis also indicates the distinct spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis in China. It is easy to conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all plan for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis in all the provincial units. An effective response requires a package of coordinated actions, which should vary across localities regarding the spatial-temporal epidemic dynamics of each type of virus and the specific conditions of each provincial unit.

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

A statistical package for computing time and frequency domain analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brownlow, J.

1978-01-01

The spectrum analysis (SPA) program is a general purpose digital computer program designed to aid in data analysis. The program does time and frequency domain statistical analyses as well as some preanalysis data preparation. The capabilities of the SPA program include linear trend removal and/or digital filtering of data, plotting and/or listing of both filtered and unfiltered data, time domain statistical characterization of data, and frequency domain statistical characterization of data.

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 2: brominated flame retardants.

PubMed

Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Drimmie, Robert J; Muir, Derek C G; Letcher, Robert J

2013-09-01

Brominated flame retardants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Significant linear increases were found for sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (ΣPBDE), BDE100, BDE153, and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). Average increases of 5.0% per year (range: 2.9-7.6%/year) were found for the subadult polar bears. BDE47 and BDE99 concentrations did not show a significant linear trend over time, but rather a significant non-linear trend peaking between 2000 and 2004. The average ΣPBDE concentrations increased 2.3 fold from 25.0ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 15.3-34.7ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 58.5ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 43.6-73.4ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Analyses of δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes in hair revealed no clear linear temporal trends in trophic level or carbon source, respectively, and non-linear trends differed among sex and age groups. These increasing concentrations of organobromine contaminants contribute to complex organohalogen mixture, already causing health effects to the East Greenland polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Low, Pak Sum; Kelly, P. Michael; Davies, Trevor D.

1994-01-01

It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

Age and Employee Green Behaviors: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Wiernik, Brenton M.; Dilchert, Stephan; Ones, Deniz S.

2016-01-01

Recent economic and societal developments have led to an increasing emphasis on organizational environmental performance. At the same time, demographic trends are resulting in increasingly aging labor forces in many industrialized nations. Commonly held stereotypes suggest that older workers are less likely to be environmentally responsible than younger workers. To evaluate the degree to which such age differences are present, we meta-analyzed 132 independent correlations and 336 d-values based on 4676 professional workers from 22 samples in 11 countries. Contrary to popular stereotypes, age showed small positive relationships with pro-environmental behaviors, suggesting that older adults engaged in these workplace behaviors slightly more frequently. Relationships with age appeared to be linear for overall, Conserving, Avoiding Harm, and Taking Initiative pro-environmental behaviors, but non-linear trends were observed for Transforming and Influencing Others behaviors. PMID:26973550

Impact of the Economic Downturn on Elective Cervical Spine Surgery in the United States: A National Trend Analysis, 2003-2013.

PubMed

Bernstein, David N; Jain, Amit; Brodell, David; Li, Yue; Rubery, Paul T; Mesfin, Addisu

2016-12-01

To analyze overall trends of elective cervical spine surgery in the United States from 2003 to 2013 with the goal of determining whether the economic downturn had an impact. Codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification were used to identify elective cervical spine surgery procedures in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2003 to 2013. National Health Expenditure, gross domestic product, and S&P 500 Index were used as measures of economic performance. The economic downturn was defined as 2008-2009. Confidence intervals were determined using subgroup analysis techniques. Linear regressions were completed to determine the association between surgery trends and economic conditions. From 2003 to 2013, posterior cervical fusions saw a 102.7% increase. During the same time frame, there was a 7.4% and 14.7% decrease in the number of anterior cervical diskectomy and fusions (ACDFs) and posterior decompressions, respectively. The trend of elective cervical spine surgeries per 100,000 persons in the U.S. population may have been affected by the economic downturn from 2008 to 2009 (-0.03% growth). The percentage of procedures paid for by private insurance decreased from 2003 to 2013 for all ACDFs, posterior cervical fusions, and posterior decompressions. The linear regression coefficients (β) and R 2 values between the number of surgeries and each of the macroeconomic factors analyzed were not statistically significant. The overall elective cervical spine surgery trend was not likely impacted by the economic downturn. Posterior cervical fusions grew significantly from 2003 to 2013, whereas ACDFs and posterior decompressions decreased. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of a New Law to Reduce the Legal Blood Alcohol Concentration Limit - A Poisson Regression Analysis and Descriptive Approach.

PubMed

Nistal-Nuño, Beatriz

2017-03-31

In Chile, a new law introduced in March 2012 lowered the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for impaired drivers from 0.1% to 0.08% and the BAC limit for driving under the influence of alcohol from 0.05% to 0.03%, but its effectiveness remains uncertain. The goal of this investigation was to evaluate the effects of this enactment on road traffic injuries and fatalities in Chile. A retrospective cohort study. Data were analyzed using a descriptive and a Generalized Linear Models approach, type of Poisson regression, to analyze deaths and injuries in a series of additive Log-Linear Models accounting for the effects of law implementation, month influence, a linear time trend and population exposure. A review of national databases in Chile was conducted from 2003 to 2014 to evaluate the monthly rates of traffic fatalities and injuries associated to alcohol and in total. It was observed a decrease by 28.1 percent in the monthly rate of traffic fatalities related to alcohol as compared to before the law (P<0.001). Adding a linear time trend as a predictor, the decrease was by 20.9 percent (P<0.001).There was a reduction in the monthly rate of traffic injuries related to alcohol by 10.5 percent as compared to before the law (P<0.001). Adding a linear time trend as a predictor, the decrease was by 24.8 percent (P<0.001). Positive results followed from this new 'zero-tolerance' law implemented in 2012 in Chile. Chile experienced a significant reduction in alcohol-related traffic fatalities and injuries, being a successful public health intervention.

Simultaneous analysis and design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haftka, R. T.

1984-01-01

Optimization techniques are increasingly being used for performing nonlinear structural analysis. The development of element by element (EBE) preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) techniques is expected to extend this trend to linear analysis. Under these circumstances the structural design problem can be viewed as a nested optimization problem. There are computational benefits to treating this nested problem as a large single optimization problem. The response variables (such as displacements) and the structural parameters are all treated as design variables in a unified formulation which performs simultaneously the design and analysis. Two examples are used for demonstration. A seventy-two bar truss is optimized subject to linear stress constraints and a wing box structure is optimized subject to nonlinear collapse constraints. Both examples show substantial computational savings with the unified approach as compared to the traditional nested approach.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

2014-01-01

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Brown, Ross D.

2007-11-01

Monotonic trend analysis of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) over the period 1972-2006 with the Mann-Kendall test reveals significant declines in SCE during spring over North America and Eurasia, with lesser declines during winter and some increases in fall SCE. The weekly mean trend attains -1.28, -0.78, and -0.48 × 106 km2 (35 years)-1 over the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Eurasia, respectively. The standardized SCE time series vary and trend coherently over Eurasia and North America, with evidence of a poleward amplification of decreasing SCE trends during spring. Multiple linear regression analyses reveal a significant dependence of the retreat of the spring continental SCE on latitude and elevation. The poleward amplification is consistent with an enhanced snow-albedo feedback over northern latitudes that acts to reinforce an initial anomaly in the cryospheric system.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

A high resolution model of linear trend in mass variations from DMT-2: Added value of accounting for coloured noise in GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahani, Hassan H.; Ditmar, Pavel; Inácio, Pedro; Didova, Olga; Gunter, Brian; Klees, Roland; Guo, Xiang; Guo, Jing; Sun, Yu; Liu, Xianglin; Zhao, Qile; Riva, Riccardo

2017-01-01

We present a high resolution model of the linear trend in the Earth's mass variations based on DMT-2 (Delft Mass Transport model, release 2). DMT-2 was produced primarily from K-Band Ranging (KBR) data of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). It comprises a time series of monthly solutions complete to spherical harmonic degree 120. A novel feature in its production was the accurate computation and incorporation of stochastic properties of coloured noise when processing KBR data. The unconstrained DMT-2 monthly solutions are used to estimate the linear trend together with a bias, as well as annual and semi-annual sinusoidal terms. The linear term is further processed with an anisotropic Wiener filter, which uses full noise and signal covariance matrices. Given the fact that noise in an unconstrained model of the trend is reduced substantially as compared to monthly solutions, the Wiener filter associated with the trend is much less aggressive compared to a Wiener filter applied to monthly solutions. Consequently, the trend estimate shows an enhanced spatial resolution. It allows signals in relatively small water bodies, such as Aral sea and Ladoga lake, to be detected. Over the ice sheets, it allows for a clear identification of signals associated with some outlet glaciers or their groups. We compare the obtained trend estimate with the ones from the CSR-RL05 model using (i) the same approach based on monthly noise covariance matrices and (ii) a commonly-used approach based on the DDK-filtered monthly solutions. We use satellite altimetry data as independent control data. The comparison demonstrates a high spatial resolution of the DMT-2 linear trend. We link this to the usage of high-accuracy monthly noise covariance matrices, which is due to an accurate computation and incorporation of coloured noise when processing KBR data. A preliminary comparison of the linear trend based on DMT-2 with that computed from GSFC_global_mascons_v01 reveals, among other, a high concentration of the signal along the coast for both models in areas like the ice sheets, Gulf of Alaska, and Iceland.

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh

2018-06-01

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

Oral cavity cancer trends over the past 25 years in Hong Kong: a multidirectional statistical analysis.

PubMed

Ushida, Keisuke; McGrath, Colman P; Lo, Edward C M; Zwahlen, Roger A

2015-07-24

Even though oral cavity cancer (OCC; ICD 10 codes C01, C02, C03, C04, C05, and C06) ranks eleventh among the world's most common cancers, accounting for approximately 2 % of all cancers, a trend analysis of OCC in Hong Kong is lacking. Hong Kong has experienced rapid economic growth with socio-cultural and environmental change after the Second World War. This together with the collected data in the cancer registry provides interesting ground for an epidemiological study on the influence of socio-cultural and environmental factors on OCC etiology. A multidirectional statistical analysis of the OCC trends over the past 25 years was performed using the databases of the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. The age, period, and cohort (APC) modeling was applied to determine age, period, and cohort effects on OCC development. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to find secular trend changes of both age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates. The APC model detected that OCC development in men was mainly dominated by the age effect, whereas in women an increasing linear period effect together with an age effect became evident. The joinpoint regression analysis showed a general downward trend of age-standardized incidence rates of OCC for men during the entire investigated period, whereas women demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2001 onwards. The results suggest that OCC incidence in Hong Kong appears to be associated with cumulative risk behaviors of the population, despite considerable socio-cultural and environmental changes after the Second World War.

Integration of altimetric lake levels and GRACE gravimetry over Africa: Inferences for terrestrial water storage change 2003-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, P.; Williams, S. D. P.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) change for 2003-2011 is estimated over Africa from GRACE gravimetric data. The signatures from change in water of the major lakes are removed by utilizing kernel functions with lake heights recovered from retracked ENVISAT satellite altimetry. In addition, the contribution of gravimetric change due to soil moisture and biomass is removed from the total GRACE signal by utilizing the GLDAS land surface model. The residual TWS time series, namely groundwater and the surface waters in rivers, wetlands, and small lakes, are investigated for trends and the seasonal cycle using linear regression. Typically, such analyses assume that the data are temporally uncorrelated but this has been shown to lead to erroneous inferences in related studies concerning the linear rate and acceleration. In this study, we utilize autocorrelation and investigate the appropriate stochastic model. The results show the proper distribution of TWS change and identify the spatial distribution of significant rates and accelerations. The effect of surface water in the major lakes is shown to contribute significantly to the trend and seasonal variation in TWS in the lake basin. Lake Volta, a managed reservoir in Ghana, is seen to have a contribution to the linear trend that is a factor of three greater than that of Lake Victoria despite having a surface area one-eighth of that of Lake Victoria. Analysis also shows the confidence levels of the deterministic trend and acceleration identifying areas where the signatures are most likely due to a physical deterministic cause and not simply stochastic variations.

Why Are Women Underrepresented in Elite Colleges and Universities? A Non-Linear Decomposition Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bielby, Rob; Posselt, Julie Renee; Jaquette, Ozan; Bastedo, Michael N.

2014-01-01

The emerging female advantage in education has received considerable attention in the popular media and recent research. We examine a persistent exception to this trend: women's underrepresentation in America's most competitive colleges and universities. Using nationally generalizable data spanning four decades, we evaluate evidence for…

Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

1984-01-01

Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

Gender disparities in prosthodontics: authorship and leadership, 13 years of observation.

PubMed

Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Knoernschild, Kent L; Campbell, Stephen D; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in prosthodontics by reviewing the trend of female authorship in prosthodontic journals and exploring the role of female leadership in prosthodontic organizations and Advanced Education in Prosthodontic (AEP) programs. Three journals representing the prosthodontic specialty were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentist first and last (senior) authors for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Article inclusion criteria were restricted to the first or last authors who held at least a DMD/DDS/BDS degree and were from U.S. institutions. Data on female leadership in prosthodontic organizations and advanced education programs were collected, and the trends were studied. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. A linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the proportion of female authorship compared to male in the dental literature. A Fisher's Exact Test was performed to contrast differences of female first and last authorship in the selected journals between years 1995 and 2008. Overall, there was no statistically significant linear increase in the proportion of either first or last female authorship compared to male authorship over time. With respect to each journal, the linear regression analysis showed that the increase of first female authorship was statistically significant (p= 0.016) compared to male authorship only in the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. The percentage of female presidents of prosthodontic organizations has been very limited. A similar trend was also observed in AEP program director positions. Over the past 13 years, female dentists' participation in prosthodontics literature authorship has not increased significantly in the United States. Furthermore, female involvement in prosthodontics leadership has been limited over the past decades. © 2010 by The American College of Prosthodontists.

Birth characteristics, maternal reproductive history, and the risk of infant leukemia: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Spector, Logan G; Davies, Stella M; Robison, Leslie L; Hilden, Joanne M; Roesler, Michelle; Ross, Julie A

2007-01-01

Leukemias with MLL gene rearrangements predominate in infants (<1 year of age), but not in older children, and may have a distinct etiology. High birth weight, higher birth order, and prior fetal loss have, with varying consistency, been associated with infant leukemia, but no studies have reported results with respect to MLL status. Here, we report for the first time such an analysis. During 1999 to 2003, mothers of 240 incident cases (113 MLL(+), 80 MLL(-), and 47 indeterminate) and 255 random digit dialed controls completed a telephone interview. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartile of birth weight, birth order, gestational age, maternal age at delivery, prior fetal loss, pre-pregnancy body mass index, and weight gain during pregnancy were obtained using unconditional logistic regression; P for linear trend was obtained by modeling continuous variables. There was a borderline significant linear trend of increasing birth weight with MLL(+) (P = 0.06), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.93), infant leukemia. Increasing birth order showed a significant inverse linear trend, independent of birth weight, with MLL(+) (P = 0.01), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.18), infant leukemia. Other variables of interest were not notably associated with infant leukemia regardless of MLL status. This investigation further supports the contention that molecularly defined subtypes of infant leukemia have separate etiologies.

Substituting values for censored data from Texas, USA, reservoirs inflated and obscured trends in analyses commonly used for water quality target development.

PubMed

Grantz, Erin; Haggard, Brian; Scott, J Thad

2018-06-12

We calculated four median datasets (chlorophyll a, Chl a; total phosphorus, TP; and transparency) using multiple approaches to handling censored observations, including substituting fractions of the quantification limit (QL; dataset 1 = 1QL, dataset 2 = 0.5QL) and statistical methods for censored datasets (datasets 3-4) for approximately 100 Texas, USA reservoirs. Trend analyses of differences between dataset 1 and 3 medians indicated percent difference increased linearly above thresholds in percent censored data (%Cen). This relationship was extrapolated to estimate medians for site-parameter combinations with %Cen > 80%, which were combined with dataset 3 as dataset 4. Changepoint analysis of Chl a- and transparency-TP relationships indicated threshold differences up to 50% between datasets. Recursive analysis identified secondary thresholds in dataset 4. Threshold differences show that information introduced via substitution or missing due to limitations of statistical methods biased values, underestimated error, and inflated the strength of TP thresholds identified in datasets 1-3. Analysis of covariance identified differences in linear regression models relating transparency-TP between datasets 1, 2, and the more statistically robust datasets 3-4. Study findings identify high-risk scenarios for biased analytical outcomes when using substitution. These include high probability of median overestimation when %Cen > 50-60% for a single QL, or when %Cen is as low 16% for multiple QL's. Changepoint analysis was uniquely vulnerable to substitution effects when using medians from sites with %Cen > 50%. Linear regression analysis was less sensitive to substitution and missing data effects, but differences in model parameters for transparency cannot be discounted and could be magnified by log-transformation of the variables.

Functional Multi-Locus QTL Mapping of Temporal Trends in Scots Pine Wood Traits

PubMed Central

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R.; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; García-Gil, M. Rosario

2014-01-01

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. PMID:25305041

Functional multi-locus QTL mapping of temporal trends in Scots pine wood traits.

PubMed

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J; García-Gil, M Rosario

2014-10-09

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. Copyright © 2014 Li et al.

Linearized-moment analysis of the temperature jump and temperature defect in the Knudsen layer of a rarefied gas.

PubMed

Gu, Xiao-Jun; Emerson, David R

2014-06-01

Understanding the thermal behavior of a rarefied gas remains a fundamental problem. In the present study, we investigate the predictive capabilities of the regularized 13 and 26 moment equations. In this paper, we consider low-speed problems with small gradients, and to simplify the analysis, a linearized set of moment equations is derived to explore a classic temperature problem. Analytical solutions obtained for the linearized 26 moment equations are compared with available kinetic models and can reliably capture all qualitative trends for the temperature-jump coefficient and the associated temperature defect in the thermal Knudsen layer. In contrast, the linearized 13 moment equations lack the necessary physics to capture these effects and consistently underpredict kinetic theory. The deviation from kinetic theory for the 13 moment equations increases significantly for specular reflection of gas molecules, whereas the 26 moment equations compare well with results from kinetic theory. To improve engineering analyses, expressions for the effective thermal conductivity and Prandtl number in the Knudsen layer are derived with the linearized 26 moment equations.

Spectral variability of plagioclase-mafic mixtures (3): Quantitative analysis applying the MGM algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serventi, Giovanna; Carli, Cristian; Sgavetti, Maria

2015-07-01

Among the techniques to detect planet's mineralogical composition remote sensing, visible and near-infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectroscopy is a powerful tool, because crystal field absorption bands are related to particular transitional metals in well-defined crystal structures, e.g., Fe2+ in M1 and M2 sites of olivine (OL) or pyroxene (PX). Although OL, PX and their mixtures have been widely studied, plagioclase (PL), considered a spectroscopically transparent mineral, has been poorly analyzed. In this work we quantitatively investigate the influence of plagioclase absorption band on the absorption bands of Fe, Mg minerals using the Modified Gaussian Model - MGM (Sunshine, J.M. et al. [1990]. J. Geophys. Res. 95, 6955-6966). We consider three plagioclase compositions of varying FeO wt.% contents and five mafic end-members (1) 56% orthopyroxene and 44% clinopyroxene, (2) 28% olivine and 72% orthopyroxene, (3) 30% orthopyroxene and 70% olivine, (4) 100% olivine and (5) 100% orthopyroxene, at two different particle sizes. The spectral parameters considered here are: band depth, band center, band width, c0 (the continuum intercept) and c1 (the continuum offset). In particular, we show the variation of the plagioclase and composite (plagioclase-olivine) band spectral parameters versus the volumetric iron content related to the plagioclase abundance in mixtures. Generally, increasing the vol. FeO% due to the PL: (1) 1250 nm band deepens with linear trend in mixtures with pyroxenes, while it decreases in mixtures with olivine, with trend shifting from parabolic to linear increasing the olivine content in end-member; (2) 1250 nm band center moves towards longer wavelengths with linear trend in pyroxene-rich mixtures and parabolic trend in olivine-rich mixtures; and (3) 1250 nm band clearly widens with linear trend in olivine-free mixtures, while the widening is only slight in olivine-rich mixtures. We also outline how spectral parameters can be ambiguous leading to an incorrect mineralogical interpretation. Furthermore, we show the presence of an asymmetry of the plagioclase band towards the IR region, resolvable adding a Gaussian in the 1600-1800 nm spectral region.

Analysis on variability and trend in Antarctic sea ice albedo between 1983 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Minji; Kim, Hyun-cheol; Choi, Sungwon; Lee, Kyeong-sang; Han, Kyung-soo

2017-04-01

Sea ice is key parameter in order to understand the cryosphere climate change. Several studies indicate the different trend of sea ice between Antarctica and Arctic. Albedo is important factor for understanding the energy budget and factors for observing of environment changes of Cryosphere such as South Pole, due to it mainly covered by ice and snow with high albedo value. In this study, we analyzed variability and trend of long-term sea ice albedo data to understand the changes of sea ice over Antarctica. In addiction, sea ice albedo researched the relationship with Antarctic oscillation in order to determine the atmospheric influence. We used the sea ice albedo data at The Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and Antarctic Oscillation data at NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We analyzed the annual trend in albedo using linear regression to understand the spatial and temporal tendency. Antarctic sea ice albedo has two spatial trend. Weddle sea / Ross sea sections represent a positive trend (0.26% ˜ 0.04% yr-1) and Bellingshausen Amundsen sea represents a negative trend (- 0.14 ˜ -0.25%yr-1). Moreover, we performed the correlation analysis between albedo and Antarctic oscillation. As a results, negative area indicate correlation coefficient of - 0.3639 and positive area indicates correlation coefficient of - 0.0741. Theses results sea ice albedo has regional trend according to ocean. Decreasing sea ice trend has negative relationship with Antarctic oscillation, its represent a possibility that sea ice influence atmospheric factor.

Fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients at the first visit in Japan: a 10-year, nationwide, observational study (JDDM 28).

PubMed

Matsuba, Ikuro; Saito, Kazumi; Takai, Masahiko; Hirao, Koichi; Sone, Hirohito

2012-09-01

To investigate the relationship between fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in type 2 diabetic patients at the first clinic/hospital visit in Japan over the years 2000 to 2009. In total, 4,798 drug-naive Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes were registered on their first clinic/hospital visits. Conventional clinical factors and fasting insulin levels were observed at baseline within the Japan Diabetes Clinical Data Management (JDDM) study between consecutive 2-year groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using a model in which the dependent variable was fasting insulin values using various clinical explanatory variables. Fasting insulin levels were found to be decreasing from 2000 to 2009. Multiple linear regression analysis with the fasting insulin levels as the dependent variable showed that waist circumference (WC), BMI, mean blood pressure, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol were significant, with WC and BMI as the main factors. ANCOVA after adjustment for age and fasting plasma glucose clearly shows the decreasing trend in fasting insulin levels and the increasing trend in BMI. During the 10-year observation period, the decreasing trend in fasting insulin was related to the slight increase in WC/BMI in type 2 diabetes. Low pancreatic β-cell reserve on top of a lifestyle background might be dependent on an increase in MRFs.

Fasting Insulin Levels and Metabolic Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetic Patients at the First Visit in Japan

PubMed Central

Matsuba, Ikuro; Saito, Kazumi; Takai, Masahiko; Hirao, Koichi; Sone, Hirohito

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE To investigate the relationship between fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in type 2 diabetic patients at the first clinic/hospital visit in Japan over the years 2000 to 2009. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In total, 4,798 drug-naive Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes were registered on their first clinic/hospital visits. Conventional clinical factors and fasting insulin levels were observed at baseline within the Japan Diabetes Clinical Data Management (JDDM) study between consecutive 2-year groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using a model in which the dependent variable was fasting insulin values using various clinical explanatory variables. RESULTS Fasting insulin levels were found to be decreasing from 2000 to 2009. Multiple linear regression analysis with the fasting insulin levels as the dependent variable showed that waist circumference (WC), BMI, mean blood pressure, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol were significant, with WC and BMI as the main factors. ANCOVA after adjustment for age and fasting plasma glucose clearly shows the decreasing trend in fasting insulin levels and the increasing trend in BMI. CONCLUSIONS During the 10-year observation period, the decreasing trend in fasting insulin was related to the slight increase in WC/BMI in type 2 diabetes. Low pancreatic β-cell reserve on top of a lifestyle background might be dependent on an increase in MRFs. PMID:22665215

Ring rotational speed trend analysis by FEM approach in a Ring Rolling process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allegri, G.; Giorleo, L.; Ceretti, E.

2018-05-01

Ring Rolling is an advanced local incremental forming technology to fabricate directly precise seamless ring-shape parts with various dimensions and materials. In this process two different deformations occur in order to reduce the width and the height of a preform hollow ring; as results a diameter expansion is obtained. In order to guarantee a uniform deformation, the preform is forced toward the Driver Roll whose aim is to transmit the rotation to the ring. The ring rotational speed selection is fundamental because the higher is the speed the higher will be the axial symmetry of the deformation process. However, it is important to underline that the rotational speed will affect not only the final ring geometry but also the loads and energy needed to produce it. Despite this importance in industrial environment, usually, a constant value for the Driver Roll angular velocity is set so to result in a decreasing trend law for the ring rotational speed. The main risk due to this approach is not fulfilling the axial symmetric constrain (due to the diameter expansion) and to generate a high localized ring section deformation. In order to improve the knowledge about this topic in the present paper three different ring rotational speed trends (constant, linearly increasing and linearly decreasing) were investigated by FEM approach. Results were compared in terms of geometrical and dimensional analysis, loads and energies required.

Solar activity indices as a proxy for the variation of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) over Bahir Dar, Ethiopia during the year 2010-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassa, Tsegaye; Tilahun, Samson; Damtie, Baylie

2017-09-01

This paper was aimed at investigating the solar variations of vTEC as a function of solar activity parameters, EUV and F10.7 radio flux. The daily values of ionospheric vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) were observed using a dual frequency GPS receiver deployed at Bahir Dar (11.6°N and 37.36°E), Ethiopia. Measurements were taken during the period of 2010-2014 for successive five years and analysis was done on only quiet day observations. A quadratic fit was used as a model to describe the daily variation of vTEC in relation to solar parameters. Linear and non-linear coefficients of the vTEC variations were calculated in order to capture the trend of the variation. The variation of vTEC have showed good agreement with the trend of solar parameters in almost all of the days we consider during the period of our observations. We have explicitly observed days with insignificant TECU deviation (eg. modeling with respect to EUV, DOY = 49 in 2010 and modeling with respect to F10.7, DOY = 125 in 2012 and the like) and days with maximum deviation (about 50 TECU). A maximum deviation were observed, on average, during months of equinox whereas minimum during solstice months. This implies that there is a need to consider more parameters, including EUV and F10.7, that can affect the variation of vTEC during equinox seasons. Relatively, small deviations was observed in modeling vTEC as a function of EUV compared to that of the variation due to F10.7 cm flux. This may also tell us that EUV can be more suitable in modeling the solar variation of vTEC especially for longterm trends. Even though, the linear trend of solar variations of vTEC was frequently observed, significant saturation and amplification trends of the solar variations of vTEC were also observed to some extent across the months of the years we have analyzed. This mixed trend of the solar variation of vTEC implies the need for thorough investigation on the effect of solar parameters on TEC. However, based on long-term dataset, we came to conclude that the solar variations of vTEC is dominated by its linear pattern.

Meta-epidemiologic study showed frequent time trends in summary estimates from meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies.

PubMed

Cohen, Jérémie F; Korevaar, Daniël A; Wang, Junfeng; Leeflang, Mariska M; Bossuyt, Patrick M

2016-09-01

To evaluate changes over time in summary estimates from meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies. We included 48 meta-analyses from 35 MEDLINE-indexed systematic reviews published between September 2011 and January 2012 (743 diagnostic accuracy studies; 344,015 participants). Within each meta-analysis, we ranked studies by publication date. We applied random-effects cumulative meta-analysis to follow how summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity evolved over time. Time trends were assessed by fitting a weighted linear regression model of the summary accuracy estimate against rank of publication. The median of the 48 slopes was -0.02 (-0.08 to 0.03) for sensitivity and -0.01 (-0.03 to 0.03) for specificity. Twelve of 96 (12.5%) time trends in sensitivity or specificity were statistically significant. We found a significant time trend in at least one accuracy measure for 11 of the 48 (23%) meta-analyses. Time trends in summary estimates are relatively frequent in meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies. Results from early meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies should be considered with caution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measurement system analysis of viscometers used for drilling mud characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mat-Shayuti, M. S.; Adzhar, S. N.

2017-07-01

Viscometers in the Faculty of Chemical Engineering, University Teknologi MARA, are subject to heavy utilization from the members of the faculty. Due to doubts surrounding their result integrity and maintenance management, Measurement System Analysis was executed. 5 samples of drilling muds with varied barite content from 5 - 25 weight% were prepared and their rheological properties determined in 3 trials by 3 operators using the viscometers. Gage Linearity and Bias Study were performed using Minitab software and the result shows high biases in the range of 19.2% to 38.7%, with non-linear trend along the span of measurements. Gage Repeatability & Reproducibility (Nested) analysis later produces Percent Repeatability & Reproducibility more than 7.7% and Percent Tolerance above 30%. Lastly, good and marginal Distinct Categories output are seen among the results. Despite acceptable performance of the measurement system in Distinct Categories, the poor results in accuracy, linearity, and Percent Repeatability & Reproducibility render the gage generally not capable. Improvement to the measurement system is imminent.

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

The developing human brain: age-related changes in cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar anatomy.

PubMed

Sussman, Dafna; Leung, Rachel C; Chakravarty, M Mallar; Lerch, Jason P; Taylor, Margot J

2016-04-01

This study is the first to characterize normal development and sex differences across neuroanatomical structures in cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar brain regions in a single large cohort. One hundred and ninety-two magnetic resonance images were examined from 96 typically developing females and 96 age-matched typically developing males from 4 to 18 years of age. Image segmentation of the cortex was conducted with CIVET, while that of the cerebellum, hippocampi, thalamus, and basal ganglia were conducted using the MAGeT algorithm. Cortical thickness analysis revealed that most cortical regions decrease linearly, while surface area increases linearly with age. Volume relative to total cerebrum followed a quadratic trend with age, with only the left supramarginal gyrus showing sexual dimorphism. Hippocampal relative volume increased linearly, while the thalamus, caudate, and putamen decreased linearly, and the cerebellum did not change with age. The relative volumes of several subcortical subregions followed inverted U-shaped trends that peaked at ~12 years of age. Many subcortical structures were found to be larger in females than in males, independently of age, while others showed a sex-by-age interaction. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar growth patterns during normal development, and draws attention to the role of sex on neuroanatomical maturation throughout childhood and adolescence.

Thrust vectoring for lateral-directional stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peron, Lee R.; Carpenter, Thomas

1992-01-01

The advantages and disadvantages of using thrust vectoring for lateral-directional control and the effects of reducing the tail size of a single-engine aircraft were investigated. The aerodynamic characteristics of the F-16 aircraft were generated by using the Aerodynamic Preliminary Analysis System II panel code. The resulting lateral-directional linear perturbation analysis of a modified F-16 aircraft with various tail sizes and yaw vectoring was performed at several speeds and altitudes to determine the stability and control trends for the aircraft compared to these trends for a baseline aircraft. A study of the paddle-type turning vane thrust vectoring control system as used on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration F/A-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle is also presented.

Incidence and mortality of lung cancer: global trends and association with socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Lao, Xiang Qian; Ho, Kin-Fai; Goggins, William B; Tse, Shelly L A

2017-10-30

We examined the correlation between lung cancer incidence/mortality and country-specific socioeconomic development, and evaluated its most recent global trends. We retrieved its age-standardized incidence rates from the GLOBOCAN database, and temporal patterns were assessed from global databases. We employed simple linear regression analysis to evaluate their correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The average annual percent changes (AAPC) of the trends were evaluated from join-point regression analysis. Country-specific HDI was strongly correlated with age-standardized incidence (r = 0.70) and mortality (r = 0.67), and to a lesser extent GDP (r = 0.24 to 0.55). Among men, 22 and 30 (out of 38 and 36) countries showed declining incidence and mortality trends, respectively; whilst among women, 19 and 16 countries showed increasing incidence and mortality trends, respectively. Among men, the AAPCs ranged from -2.8 to -0.6 (incidence) and -3.6 to -1.1 (mortality) in countries with declining trend, whereas among women the AAPC range was 0.4 to 8.9 (incidence) and 1 to 4.4 (mortality) in countries with increasing trend. Among women, Brazil, Spain and Cyprus had the greatest incidence increase, and all countries in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe reported increasing mortality. These findings highlighted the need for targeted preventive measures.

Quantifying Main Trends in Lysozyme Nucleation: The Effects of Precipitant Concentration, Supersaturation and Impurities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, Michael W.; Leardi, Riccardo; Judge, Russell A.; Pusey, Marc L.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Full factorial experimental design incorporating multi-linear regression analysis of the experimental data allows quick identification of main trends and effects using a limited number of experiments. In this study these techniques were employed to identify the effect of precipitant concentration, supersaturation, and the presence of an impurity, the physiological lysozyme dimer, on the nucleation rate and crystal dimensions of the tetragonal forin of chicken egg white lysozyme. Decreasing precipitant concentration, increasing supers aturation, and increasing impurity, were found to increase crystal numbers. The crystal axial ratio decreased with increasing precipitant concentration, independent of impurity.

High School Grade Inflation from 2004 to 2011. ACT Research Report Series, 2013 (3)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Qian; Sanchez, Edgar I.

2013-01-01

This study explores inflation in high school grade point average (HSGPA), defined as trend over time in the conditional average of HSGPA, given ACT® Composite score. The time period considered is 2004 to 2011. Using hierarchical linear modeling, the study updates a previous analysis of Woodruff and Ziomek (2004). The study also investigates…

Macroeconomic Knowledge of Higher Education Students in Germany and Japan--A Multilevel Analysis of Contextual and Personal Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zlatkin-Troitschanskaia, Olga; Schmidt, Susanne; Brückner, Sebastian; Förster, Manuel; Yamaoka, Michio; Asano, Tadayoshi

2016-01-01

Recent trends towards harmonising and internationalising business and economics studies in higher education are affecting the structure and content of programmes and courses, and necessitate more transparent and comparable information on students' economic knowledge and skills. In this study, we examine by linear multilevel regression modelling…

Techniques of data analysis and presentation for planners of the metropolitan environment

Treesearch

Joelee Normand

1977-01-01

Relationships between the characteristics of the physical environment of a metropolitan area and the activities of its human inhabitants can be used to predict probable future dynamic trends, both demographic and environmental. Using simple linear regression, we were able to highlight several dynamic features of the metropolitan area of Tulsa, Oklahoma. Computer movies...

An operational definition of a statistically meaningful trend.

PubMed

Bryhn, Andreas C; Dimberg, Peter H

2011-04-28

Linear trend analysis of time series is standard procedure in many scientific disciplines. If the number of data is large, a trend may be statistically significant even if data are scattered far from the trend line. This study introduces and tests a quality criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high statistical significance. The time series is divided into intervals and interval mean values are calculated. Thereafter, r(2) and p values are calculated from regressions concerning time and interval mean values. If r(2) ≥ 0.65 at p ≤ 0.05 in any of these regressions, then the trend is regarded as statistically meaningful. Out of ten investigated time series from different scientific disciplines, five displayed statistically meaningful trends. A Microsoft Excel application (add-in) was developed which can perform statistical meaningfulness tests and which may increase the operationality of the test. The presented method for distinguishing statistically meaningful trends should be reasonably uncomplicated for researchers with basic statistics skills and may thus be useful for determining which trends are worth analysing further, for instance with respect to causal factors. The method can also be used for determining which segments of a time trend may be particularly worthwhile to focus on.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN. These sources were clearly linked with anthropogenic activities, and the observed decreasing trends confirmed the effectiveness of pollution control measures implemented at European or regional/local levels. Conversely, at regional level, the contributions from sources mostly linked with natural processes, such as aged marine and aged organics, did not show statistically significant trends. The trends observed for the PM10 source contributions reflected the trends observed for the chemical tracers of these pollutant sources well.

Association of Internet search trends with suicide death in Taipei City, Taiwan, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Yang, Albert C; Tsai, Shi-Jen; Huang, Norden E; Peng, Chung-Kang

2011-07-01

Although Internet has become an important source for affected people seeking suicide information, the connection between Internet searches for suicide information and suicidal death remains largely unknown. This study aims to evaluate the association between suicide and Internet searches trends for 37 suicide-related terms representing major known risks of suicide. This study analyzes suicide death data in Taipei City, Taiwan and corresponding local Internet search trend data provided by Google Insights for Search during the period from January 2004 to December 2009. The investigation uses cross correlation analysis to estimate the temporal relationship between suicide and Internet search trends and multiple linear regression analysis to identify significant factors associated with suicide from a pool of search trend data that either coincides or precedes the suicide death. Results show that a set of suicide-related search terms, the trends of which either temporally coincided or preceded trends of suicide data, were associated with suicide death. These search factors varied among different suicide samples. Searches for "major depression" and "divorce" accounted for, at most, 30.2% of the variance in suicide data. When considering only leading suicide trends, searches for "divorce" and the pro-suicide term "complete guide of suicide," accounted for 22.7% of variance in suicide data. Appropriate filtering and detection of potentially harmful source in keyword-driven search results by search engine providers may be a reasonable strategy to reduce suicide deaths. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Barrier island morphodynamic classification based on lidar metrics for north Assateague Island, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brock, John C.; Krabill, William; Sallenger, Asbury H.

2004-01-01

In order to reap the potential of airborne lidar surveys to provide geological information useful in understanding coastal sedimentary processes acting on various time scales, a new set of analysis methods are needed. This paper presents a multi-temporal lidar analysis of north Assateague Island, Maryland, and demonstrates the calculation of lidar metrics that condense barrier island morphology and morphological change into attributed linear features that may be used to analyze trends in coastal evolution. The new methods proposed in this paper are also of significant practical value, because lidar metric analysis reduces large volumes of point elevations into linear features attributed with essential morphological variables that are ideally suited for inclusion in Geographic Information Systems. A morphodynamic classification of north Assategue Island for a recent 10 month time period that is based on the recognition of simple patterns described by lidar change metrics is presented. Such morphodynamic classification reveals the relative magnitude and the fine scale alongshore variation in the importance of coastal changes over the study area during a defined time period. More generally, through the presentation of this morphodynamic classification of north Assateague Island, the value of lidar metrics in both examining large lidar data sets for coherent trends and in building hypotheses regarding processes driving barrier evolution is demonstrated

Linearity of Mid-Continent Kimberlite-Carbonatite Magmatism, USA: Slab-Edge Focus as Alternative to Hot-Spot Track

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duke, G. I.; Carlson, R. W.

2009-12-01

The fates of subducted oceanic slabs at depth in the mantle are not well known, but linear trends of unusual magmatic products such as kimberlites and carbonatites might be used to track their past existence within the mantle. A N40°W linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites, and rocks of kimberlitic affinity, from the Black Hills (WY-SD) to Alberta, was suggested to have been caused by upwelling mantle material focused directly above the western edge of the subducted Kula plate stalled in the transition zone, with a slab window or “tear” to the southwest (Duke, 2009). In contrast, a linear zone of similar magmas to the south (a southerly extension of this N40°W linear trend, from Kansas to Louisiana) has been proposed to represent a hot spot trace produced by a mantle plume (“Bermuda Hot Spot”). Ongoing studies of ages and geochemistry of alkalic rocks along the N40°W trend from Louisiana to Alberta provide increasing evidence for a slab-edge model as the cause of the linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites in the mid-continent. In addition, seismic tomography indicates that the torn Farallon slab currently is stalled in the transition zone below the mid-continent, and an older slab is within the lower mantle farther to the east (Sigloch et al., 2008). These seismic data were interpreted as revealing the presence of the western edge of the Farallon plate trending roughly N40°W. The slab edge as projected to the surface is parallel to, but slightly west of, the trend of kimberlites and carbonatites at the mid-continent. Recently published ages show no clear age progression for the magmatism and thus do not support a hot-spot hypothesis for the linear trend. The isotopic compositions of the alkalic rocks show a genetic similarity among more recent magmas along the trend. There are at least four main pulses of magmatism along the trend at 110-85, 67-64, 55-52, and less than 50 Ma. Kimberlites and carbonatites in the northern section of the N40°W trend are the youngest of the northern group, with ages of ~48 to ≤ 46 Ma. The southern portion of the trend contains the oldest alkalic magmatism in Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana, with kimberlites in Kansas and carbonatites in Arkansas. The 67-64 Ma magmatic (or “reheating”) pulse was recorded along the entire trend from Louisiana to northern Montana. Multiple slabs and/or slab segmentation, and irregular convection may account for multiple magmatic pulses, although the 67-64 Ma magmatism across the entire continent is difficult to explain. Importantly, kimberlites and carbonatites represent the most recent, or part of the most recent, magmatism along the N40°W trend. This correlates with a change in proportion of source composition with time, as indicated by increasing positive epsilon Nd and Hf, lower 87Sr/86Sr, and higher 207Pb/204Pb, 206/204Pb, and 208Pb/204Pb. Thus, in each area where there exist precise age and isotopic data, magmatism began with a component that was dominantly lithospheric, followed by increasing proportions of asthenospheric component with time, culminating with kimberlitic or carbonatite magmatism.

Structural interpretations based on ERTS-1 imagery, Bighorn Region, Wyoming-Montana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoppin, R. A.

1973-01-01

Structural analysis is being carried out on bands MSS 5 and 7 of scene 1085-17294. Geologic strucutre is primarily revealed in the topographic relief and drainage. Topographic linears are particularly well developed in the bighorn uplift. Many of these occur along known faults and shear zones in the Precambrian core; several have not been previously mapped. These linears, however, do not continue into the younger rocks of the flanks or do so in a much less marked manner than in the core. Linears are far less abundant in the basin or are manifested only in very subtle tonal contrasts and somewhat straight drainage segments. Some of the linears are aligned along trends previously postulated on the basis of surface mapping to be lineaments. The imagery reveals little or no evidence of strike-slip displacements along these lineaments.

Real-time open-loop frequency response analysis of flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosworth, J. T.; West, J. C.

1986-01-01

A technique has been developed to compare the open-loop frequency response of a flight test aircraft real time with linear analysis predictions. The result is direct feedback to the flight control systems engineer on the validity of predictions and adds confidence for proceeding with envelope expansion. Further, gain and phase margins can be tracked for trends in a manner similar to the techniques used by structural dynamics engineers in tracking structural modal damping.

Land Area Change in Coastal Louisiana: A Multidecadal Perspective (from 1956 to 2006)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John A.; Bernier, Julie C.; Morton, Robert A.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) analyzed changes in the configuration of land and water in coastal Louisiana by using a sequential series of 14 data sets summarizing land and water areas from 1956 to 2006. The purpose of this study is to provide a spatially and temporally consistent source of quantitative information on land area across coastal Louisiana, broken into three physiographic provinces (the term 'coastal Louisiana' is used to present data on the collective area). The land-water data sets used in this study are interpreted through spatial analysis and by linear regression analysis. The spatial depictions of land area change reveal a complex and interwoven mosaic of loss and gain patterns caused by natural and human-induced processes operating at varied temporal and spatial scales, resulting in fluctuating contributions to coastal loss. The linear regression analysis provides a robust estimate of recent change trends by comparing land area over time for all data sets from 1985 to 2004 and from 1985 to 2006 by physiographic province across coastal Louisiana. The 1956 to 2006 map showing multidecadal changes, along with the linear regressions of land area change presented in this study, provide a comprehensive and concise presentation of historical trends and rates of land area change in coastal Louisiana. Taking a broad historical view provides an in-depth understanding of land area changes over time. For example, one observation provided by our historical review is that the majority of the widespread, nontransitory land gains depicted on the map over the past 50 years, with the exception of the progradation of the Atchafafalaya River and Wax Lake deltas, are primarily related to sediment placement and landward migration of barrier islands. Another point revealed by our historical approach is that recent land losses caused by hurricanes sometimes commingled with or exacerbated older losses formed during the 1956 to 1978 period. Furthermore, our analyses also show how the immediate impacts of extreme storms can alter the long-term, time-averaged trends of landscape change, thus limiting the range of projections for the future. For this reason, this study does not include trend projections beyond 2015 because of uncertainties related to recovery from the 2005 hurricane season and the potential for other episodic events that could skew future rates of change.

Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Zubko, Viktor

2009-01-01

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together

Clinical evaluation of a novel population-based regression analysis for detecting glaucomatous visual field progression.

PubMed

Kovalska, M P; Bürki, E; Schoetzau, A; Orguel, S F; Orguel, S; Grieshaber, M C

2011-04-01

The distinction of real progression from test variability in visual field (VF) series may be based on clinical judgment, on trend analysis based on follow-up of test parameters over time, or on identification of a significant change related to the mean of baseline exams (event analysis). The aim of this study was to compare a new population-based method (Octopus field analysis, OFA) with classic regression analyses and clinical judgment for detecting glaucomatous VF changes. 240 VF series of 240 patients with at least 9 consecutive examinations available were included into this study. They were independently classified by two experienced investigators. The results of such a classification served as a reference for comparison for the following statistical tests: (a) t-test global, (b) r-test global, (c) regression analysis of 10 VF clusters and (d) point-wise linear regression analysis. 32.5 % of the VF series were classified as progressive by the investigators. The sensitivity and specificity were 89.7 % and 92.0 % for r-test, and 73.1 % and 93.8 % for the t-test, respectively. In the point-wise linear regression analysis, the specificity was comparable (89.5 % versus 92 %), but the sensitivity was clearly lower than in the r-test (22.4 % versus 89.7 %) at a significance level of p = 0.01. A regression analysis for the 10 VF clusters showed a markedly higher sensitivity for the r-test (37.7 %) than the t-test (14.1 %) at a similar specificity (88.3 % versus 93.8 %) for a significant trend (p = 0.005). In regard to the cluster distribution, the paracentral clusters and the superior nasal hemifield progressed most frequently. The population-based regression analysis seems to be superior to the trend analysis in detecting VF progression in glaucoma, and may eliminate the drawbacks of the event analysis. Further, it may assist the clinician in the evaluation of VF series and may allow better visualization of the correlation between function and structure owing to VF clusters. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

PubMed Central

Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

2015-01-01

Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641

Relationship between Soft Drink Consumption and Obesity in 9-11 Years Old Children in a Multi-National Study.

PubMed

Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Broyles, Stephanie T; Champagne, Catherine M; Chaput, Jean-Philippe; Fogelholm, Mikael; Hu, Gang; Kuriyan, Rebecca; Kurpad, Anura; Lambert, Estelle V; Maia, Jose; Matsudo, Victor; Olds, Timothy; Onywera, Vincent; Sarmiento, Olga L; Standage, Martyn; Tremblay, Mark S; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Zhao, Pei

2016-11-30

The purpose of this study was to determine the association between regular (sugar containing) and diet (artificially sweetened) soft drink consumption and obesity in children from 12 countries ranging in levels of economic and human development. The sample included 6162 children aged 9-11 years. Information on soft drink consumption was obtained using a food frequency questionnaire. Percentage body fat (%BF) was estimated by bio-electrical impedance analysis, body mass index (BMI) z -scores were computed using World Health Organization reference data, and obesity was defined as a BMI > +2 standard deviations (SD). Multi-level models were used to investigate trends in BMI z -scores, %BF and obesity across categories of soft drink consumption. Age, sex, study site, parental education and physical activity were included as covariates. There was a significant linear trend in BMI z -scores across categories of consumption of regular soft drinks in boys ( p = 0.049), but not in girls; there were no significant trends in %BF or obesity observed in either boys or girls. There was no significant linear trend across categories of diet soft drink consumption in boys, but there was a graded, positive association in girls for BMI z -score ( p = 0.0002) and %BF ( p = 0.0001). Further research is required to explore these associations using longitudinal research designs.

Relationship between Soft Drink Consumption and Obesity in 9–11 Years Old Children in a Multi-National Study

PubMed Central

Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Broyles, Stephanie T.; Champagne, Catherine M.; Chaput, Jean-Philippe; Fogelholm, Mikael; Hu, Gang; Kuriyan, Rebecca; Kurpad, Anura; Lambert, Estelle V.; Maia, Jose; Matsudo, Victor; Olds, Timothy; Onywera, Vincent; Sarmiento, Olga L.; Standage, Martyn; Tremblay, Mark S.; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Zhao, Pei

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the association between regular (sugar containing) and diet (artificially sweetened) soft drink consumption and obesity in children from 12 countries ranging in levels of economic and human development. The sample included 6162 children aged 9–11 years. Information on soft drink consumption was obtained using a food frequency questionnaire. Percentage body fat (%BF) was estimated by bio-electrical impedance analysis, body mass index (BMI) z-scores were computed using World Health Organization reference data, and obesity was defined as a BMI > +2 standard deviations (SD). Multi-level models were used to investigate trends in BMI z-scores, %BF and obesity across categories of soft drink consumption. Age, sex, study site, parental education and physical activity were included as covariates. There was a significant linear trend in BMI z-scores across categories of consumption of regular soft drinks in boys (p = 0.049), but not in girls; there were no significant trends in %BF or obesity observed in either boys or girls. There was no significant linear trend across categories of diet soft drink consumption in boys, but there was a graded, positive association in girls for BMI z-score (p = 0.0002) and %BF (p = 0.0001). Further research is required to explore these associations using longitudinal research designs. PMID:27916866

Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

PubMed

Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

2005-09-01

We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

Flexible and structured survival model for a simultaneous estimation of non-linear and non-proportional effects and complex interactions between continuous variables: Performance of this multidimensional penalized spline approach in net survival trend analysis.

PubMed

Remontet, Laurent; Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Iwaz, Jean; Belot, Aurélien; Danieli, Coraline; Charvat, Hadrien; Roche, Laurent

2018-01-01

Cancer survival trend analyses are essential to describe accurately the way medical practices impact patients' survival according to the year of diagnosis. To this end, survival models should be able to account simultaneously for non-linear and non-proportional effects and for complex interactions between continuous variables. However, in the statistical literature, there is no consensus yet on how to build such models that should be flexible but still provide smooth estimates of survival. In this article, we tackle this challenge by smoothing the complex hypersurface (time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and mortality hazard) using a multidimensional penalized spline built from the tensor product of the marginal bases of time, age, and year. Considering this penalized survival model as a Poisson model, we assess the performance of this approach in estimating the net survival with a comprehensive simulation study that reflects simple and complex realistic survival trends. The bias was generally small and the root mean squared error was good and often similar to that of the true model that generated the data. This parametric approach offers many advantages and interesting prospects (such as forecasting) that make it an attractive and efficient tool for survival trend analyses.

Temperature and geographic attribution of change in the Taraxacum mongolicum growing season from 1990 to 2009 in eastern China's temperate zone.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Tian, Youhua; Xu, Lin

2015-10-01

Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.1 days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.1 days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.1 days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 1 °C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.1 days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 1 °C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.3 days in regional mean growing season end date. A 1 °C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.7 days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 1 °C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 1 °C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.

Temperature and geographic attribution of change in the Taraxacum mongolicum growing season from 1990 to 2009 in eastern China's temperate zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Tian, Youhua; Xu, Lin

2015-10-01

Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.1 days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.1 days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.1 days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 1 °C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.1 days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 1 °C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.3 days in regional mean growing season end date. A 1 °C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.7 days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 1 °C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 1 °C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.

A phenomenological biological dose model for proton therapy based on linear energy transfer spectra.

PubMed

Rørvik, Eivind; Thörnqvist, Sara; Stokkevåg, Camilla H; Dahle, Tordis J; Fjaera, Lars Fredrik; Ytre-Hauge, Kristian S

2017-06-01

The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of protons varies with the radiation quality, quantified by the linear energy transfer (LET). Most phenomenological models employ a linear dependency of the dose-averaged LET (LET d ) to calculate the biological dose. However, several experiments have indicated a possible non-linear trend. Our aim was to investigate if biological dose models including non-linear LET dependencies should be considered, by introducing a LET spectrum based dose model. The RBE-LET relationship was investigated by fitting of polynomials from 1st to 5th degree to a database of 85 data points from aerobic in vitro experiments. We included both unweighted and weighted regression, the latter taking into account experimental uncertainties. Statistical testing was performed to decide whether higher degree polynomials provided better fits to the data as compared to lower degrees. The newly developed models were compared to three published LET d based models for a simulated spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) scenario. The statistical analysis of the weighted regression analysis favored a non-linear RBE-LET relationship, with the quartic polynomial found to best represent the experimental data (P = 0.010). The results of the unweighted regression analysis were on the borderline of statistical significance for non-linear functions (P = 0.053), and with the current database a linear dependency could not be rejected. For the SOBP scenario, the weighted non-linear model estimated a similar mean RBE value (1.14) compared to the three established models (1.13-1.17). The unweighted model calculated a considerably higher RBE value (1.22). The analysis indicated that non-linear models could give a better representation of the RBE-LET relationship. However, this is not decisive, as inclusion of the experimental uncertainties in the regression analysis had a significant impact on the determination and ranking of the models. As differences between the models were observed for the SOBP scenario, both non-linear LET spectrum- and linear LET d based models should be further evaluated in clinically realistic scenarios. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Structural and lithologic study of northern coast ranges and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The pattern of linear systems within the project area has been extended into the western foothill belt of the Sierra Nevada. The chief pattern of linear features in the western Sierran foothill belt trends about N. 10 - 15 deg W., but in the vicinity of the Feather River the trend of the features abruptly changes to about N. 50-60 deg W and appears to be contiguous across the Sacramento Valley with a similar system of linear features in the Coast Ranges. The linear features in the Modoc Plateau and Klamath Mt. areas appear unrelated to the systems detected in the Coast Ranges of Sierran foothill belt. Although the change in trend of the Sierran structural features has been previously suggested and the interrelationship of the Klamath Mt. region with the northern Sierra Nevadas has been postulated, the data obtained from the ERTS-1 imagery strengthens these notions and provides for the first time evidence of a direct connection of the structural trends within the alluviated part of the Sacramento Valley. In addition rocks of Pleistocene and Holocene age are offset by some of the linear features seen on ERTS-1 imagery and hence may record the latest episode of geologic deformation in north-central California.

Semi-automatic mapping of linear-trending bedforms using 'Self-Organizing Maps' algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foroutan, M.; Zimbelman, J. R.

2017-09-01

Increased application of high resolution spatial data such as high resolution satellite or Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) images from Earth, as well as High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images from Mars, makes it necessary to increase automation techniques capable of extracting detailed geomorphologic elements from such large data sets. Model validation by repeated images in environmental management studies such as climate-related changes as well as increasing access to high-resolution satellite images underline the demand for detailed automatic image-processing techniques in remote sensing. This study presents a methodology based on an unsupervised Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm, known as Self Organizing Maps (SOM), to achieve the semi-automatic extraction of linear features with small footprints on satellite images. SOM is based on competitive learning and is efficient for handling huge data sets. We applied the SOM algorithm to high resolution satellite images of Earth and Mars (Quickbird, Worldview and HiRISE) in order to facilitate and speed up image analysis along with the improvement of the accuracy of results. About 98% overall accuracy and 0.001 quantization error in the recognition of small linear-trending bedforms demonstrate a promising framework.

Impact of aerosols and clouds on decadal trends in all-sky solar radiation over the Netherlands (1966-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Reinout; Brandsma, Theo; Pier Siebesma, A.

2017-07-01

A 50-year hourly data set of global shortwave radiation, cloudiness and visibility over the Netherlands was used to quantify the contribution of aerosols and clouds to the trend in yearly-averaged all-sky radiation (1.81 ± 1.07 W m-2 decade-1). Yearly-averaged clear-sky and cloud-base radiation data show large year-to-year fluctuations caused by yearly changes in the occurrence of clear and cloudy periods and cannot be used for trend analysis. Therefore, proxy clear-sky and cloud-base radiations were computed. In a proxy analysis hourly radiation data falling within a fractional cloudiness value are fitted by monotonic increasing functions of solar zenith angle and summed over all zenith angles occurring in a single year to produce an average. Stable trends can then be computed from the proxy radiation data. A functional expression is derived whereby the trend in proxy all-sky radiation is a linear combination of trends in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky radiation and proxy cloud-base radiation. Trends (per decade) in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky and proxy cloud-base radiation were, respectively, 0.0097 ± 0.0062, 2.78 ± 0.50 and 3.43 ± 1.17 W m-2. To add up to the all-sky radiation the three trends have weight factors, namely the difference between the mean cloud-base and clear-sky radiation, the clear-sky fraction and the fractional cloudiness, respectively. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that all three components contribute significantly to the observed trend in all-sky radiation. Radiative transfer calculations using the aerosol optical thickness derived from visibility observations indicate that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI) is a strong candidate to explain the upward trend in the clear-sky radiation. Aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) may have some impact on cloud-base radiation, but it is suggested that decadal changes in cloud thickness and synoptic-scale changes in cloud amount also play an important role.

Increasing prominence of implantology research: a chronological trend analysis of 100 top-cited articles in periodontal journals.

PubMed

Chiang, Ho-Sheng; Huang, Ren-Yeong; Weng, Pei-Wei; Mau, Lian-Ping; Su, Chi-Chun; Tsai, Yi-Wen Cathy; Wu, Yu-Chiao; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Shieh, Yi-Shing; Cheng, Wan-Chien

To identify 100 top-cited articles published in periodontal journals and analyse the research trends by using citation analysis. 100 top-cited articles published in periodontal journals were retrieved by searching the database of the ISI Web of Science and Journal Citation reports. For each article, the following principal bibliometric parameters: authorship, geographic and institute origin, manuscript type, study design, scope of study, and citation count of each time period were analysed from 1965 to 2015. The identified 100 top-cited articles were retrieved from five periodontal journals and citation counts were recorded between 262 and 1,693 times. For the institute of origin, the most productive institute, in terms of the number of 100 top-cited articles published, was the University of Gothenburg (Sweden) (n = 19), followed by the Forsyth Dental Center (USA) (n = 15). Most manuscripts were original research (n = 74), and the inflammatory periodontal disease (n = 59) was the most frequent topic studied. Interestingly, the trend of increase average citation reached significance for implantology (β = 26.75, P = 0.003) and systemic interactions (β = 29.83, P = 0.005), but not for inflammatory disease (β = -10.30, P = 0.248) and tissue regeneration (β = 9.04, P = 0.081). By using multivariable linear regression in a generalised linear model, suitable published journal (Journal of Clinical Periodontology), geographic regions (Europe), more intense international collaboration, adequate manuscript type (review article) and study design (systematic review) could be attributed to escalating average citation counts in implantology (all P < 0.05). However, for systemic interactions, only geographic region and study design were significantly associated with the increasing citation trend. These principal bibliometric characteristics revealed escalated trends in average citation count in implantology throughout time. Conflict-of-interest statement The authors have stated explicitly that there are no conflicts of interest in connection with this article. The study was self-funded by the authors and their institution.

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

PubMed

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Spatial and temporal drivers of wildfire occurrence in the context of rural development in northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R Miranda; Brian R Sturtevant; Susan I Stewart; Roger B. Hammer

2012-01-01

Most drivers underlying wildfire are dynamic, but at different spatial and temporal scales. We quantified temporal and spatial trends in wildfire patterns over two spatial extents in northern Wisconsin to identify drivers and their change through time. We used spatial point pattern analysis to quantify the spatial pattern of wildfire occurrences, and linear regression...

Structural and lithologic study of Northern Coast Range and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Preliminary analysis of the data received has disclosed two potentially important northwest-trending systems of linear features within the Northern California Coast Ranges. A third system, which trends northeast, can be traced with great uncertainty across the alluviated part of the Sacramento Valley and into the foothills of the Sierra Nevada. These linear features may represent fault systems or zones of shearing. Of interest, although not yet verified, is the observation that some of the mercury concentrations and some of the geothermally active areas of California may be located at the intersection of the Central and the Valley Systems. One, perhaps two, stratigraphic unconformities within the Late Mesozoic sedimentary rocks were detected during preliminary examination of the imagery; however, more analysis is necessary in order to verify this preliminary interpretation. A heretofore unrecognized, large circular depression, about 15 km in diameter, was detected within the alluviated part of the Sacramento Valley. The depression is adjacent to a large laccolithic intrusion and may be geologically related to it. Changes in the photogeologic characteristics of this feature will continue to be monitored.

Dry spell trend analysis in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin using daily rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muita, R. R.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.

2012-04-01

Important agricultural areas in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia are largely semi-arid to arid. Persistent dry periods and timing of dry spells directly impact the availability of soil moisture and hence crop production in these regions. Most studies focus on the analysis of dry spell lengths at an annual scale. However, timing and length of dry spells at finer temporal scales is more beneficial for cropping when considering a trade-off between the time scale and the ability to analyse dry spell length. The aim of this study was to analyse the interannual and intra annual variations in dry spell lengths in the regions to inform crop management. This study analysed monthly dry spells based on daily rainfall for 1961-2010 on a limited dataset of 13 locations in Kenya and 17 locations in the MDB. This dataset was the most consistent across both regions and future analysis will incorporate more stations and longer time periods where available. Dry spell lengths were analysed by month and year and trends in monthly and annual dry spell lengths were analysed using Generalised Linear Models (GLM) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Overall, monthly dryspell lengths are right skewed with higher frequency of shorter dryspells (3-25 days). In Kenya, significant increases in mean dry spell lengths (p≤0.02) are observed in inland arid-to semi humid locations but this temporal trend appears to decrease in highland and the coastal regions. Analysis of the MDB stations suggests changes in seasonality. For example, spatial trends suggest a North-South increase in dry spell length in summer (December - February), but a shortening after February. Generally, the GLM and MK results are similar in the two regions but the MK test tends to give higher values of positive slope coefficients and lower values for negative coefficients compared to GLM. This may limit the ability of finding the best estimates for model coefficients. Previous studies in Australia and Kenya have relied on continuous climatic indices based on global climate models and stochastic processes resulting in limited and mixed results. For agronomical purposes, our results show that direct assessment of dry spells lengths from daily rainfall also indicates changes in dry spells trends in Kenya and the MDB and that such an analysis is easy to use and requires limited assumptions. This initial analysis identifies significant increasing trends in the dry spell lengths in some areas and periods in Kenya and the MDB. This has major implications for crop production in these regions and it is recommended that this information be incorporated in the regions' management decisions. KEY WORDS: monthly dry spell length; Generalized Linear Models; Mann -Kendall test; month; Kenya, Murray Darling Basin (MDB).

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

CHIPPING FRACTURE RESISTANCE OF DENTURE TOOTH MATERIALS

PubMed Central

Quinn, G. D.; Giuseppetti, A. A.; Hoffman, K. H.

2014-01-01

Objective The applicability of the edge chipping method to denture tooth materials was assessed. These are softer materials than those usually tested by edge chipping. The edge chipping fracture resistances of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) based and two filled resin composite denture tooth materials were compared. Methods An edge chipping machine was used to chip rectangular blocks and flattened anterior denture teeth. Force versus edge distance data were collected over a broad range of forces and distances. Between 20 and 65 chips were made per condition depending upon the material, the scatter, and the indenter type. Different indenter types were used including Rockwell C, sharp conical 120°, Knoop, and Vickers. The edge toughness, Te, was evaluated for different indenter types. Results The edge chipping data collected on the blocks matched the data collected from flattened teeth. High scatter, particularly at large distances and loads, meant that many tests (up to 64) were necessary to compare the denture tooth materials and to ascertain the appropriate data trends. A linear force – distance trend analysis was adequate for comparing these materials. A power law trend might be more appropriate, but the large scatter obscured the definitive determination of the precise trend. Different indenters produce different linear trends, with the ranking of: sharp conical 120°, Rockwell C, and Knoop, from lowest to highest edge toughness. Vickers indenter data were extremely scattered and a sensible trend could not be obtained. Edge toughness was inversely correlated to hardness. Significance Edge chipping data collected either from simple laboratory scale test blocks or from actual denture teeth may be used to evaluate denture materials. The edge chipping method’s applicability has been extended to another class of restorative materials. PMID:24674342

Variations of global gravity waves derived from 14 years of SABER temperature observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Garcia, Rolando R.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin; Wu, Dong L.; Nakamura, Takuji

2017-06-01

The global gravity wave (GW) potential energy (PE) per unit mass is derived from SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature profiles over the past 14 years (2002-2015). Since the SABER data cover longer than one solar cycle, multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate the trend (means linear trend from 2002 to 2015) of global GW PE and the responses of global GW PE to solar activity, to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) and to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We find a significant positive trend of GW PE at around 50°N during July from 2002 to 2015, in agreement with ground-based radar observations at a similar latitude but from 1990 to 2010. Both the monthly and the deseasonalized trends of GW PE are significant near 50°S. Specifically, the deseasonalized trend of GW PE has a positive peak of 12-15% per decade at 40°S-50°S and below 60 km, which suggests that eddy diffusion is increasing in some places. A significant positive trend of GW PE near 50°S could be due to the strengthening of the polar stratospheric jets, as documented from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications wind data. The response of GW PE to solar activity is negative in the lower and middle latitudes. The response of GW PE to QBO (as indicated by 30 hPa zonal winds over the equator) is negative in the tropical upper stratosphere and extends to higher latitudes at higher altitudes. The response of GW PE to ENSO (as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index) is positive in the tropical upper stratosphere.

Flood Frequency Analysis Under Non-stationarity Conditions: the Case of Southern Brazilian Hydroelectric Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartiko, Daniel; Chaffe, Pedro; Bonumá, Nadia

2017-04-01

Floods may be strongly affected by climate, land-use, land-cover and water infrastructure changes. However, it is common to model this process as stationary. This approach has been questioned, especially when it involves estimate of the frequency and magnitude of extreme events for designing and maintaining hydraulic structures, as those responsible for flood control and dams safety. Brazil is the third largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world and many of the country's dams are located in the Southern Region. So, it seems appropriate to investigate the presence of non-stationarity in the affluence in these plants. In our study, we used historical flood data from the Brazilian National Grid Operator (ONS) to explore trends in annual maxima in river flow of the 38 main rivers flowing to Southern Brazilian reservoirs (records range from 43 to 84 years). In the analysis, we assumed a two-parameter log-normal distribution a linear regression model was applied in order to allow for the mean to vary with time. We computed recurrence reduction factors to characterize changes in the return period of an initially estimated 100 year-flood by a log-normal stationary model. To evaluate whether or not a particular site exhibits positive trend, we only considered data series with linear regression slope coefficients that exhibit significance levels (p<0,05). The significance level was calculated using the one-sided Student's test. The trend model residuals were analyzed using the Anderson-Darling normality test, the Durbin-Watson test for the independence and the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedasticity. Our results showed that 22 of the 38 data series analyzed have a significant positive trend. The trends were mainly in three large basins: Iguazu, Uruguay and Paranapanema, which suffered changes in land use and flow regularization in the last years. The calculated return period for the series that presented positive trend varied from 50 to 77 years for a 100 year-flood estimated by stationary model when considering a planning horizon equal to ten years. We conclude that attention should be given for future projects developed in this area, including the incorporation of non-stationarity analysis, search for answers to such changes and incorporation of new data to increase the reliability of the estimates.

Statistical significance of seasonal warming/cooling trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2017-04-01

The question whether a seasonal climate trend (e.g., the increase of summer temperatures in Antarctica in the last decades) is of anthropogenic or natural origin is of great importance for mitigation and adaption measures alike. The conventional significance analysis assumes that (i) the seasonal climate trends can be quantified by linear regression, (ii) the different seasonal records can be treated as independent records, and (iii) the persistence in each of these seasonal records can be characterized by short-term memory described by an autoregressive process of first order. Here we show that assumption ii is not valid, due to strong intraannual correlations by which different seasons are correlated. We also show that, even in the absence of correlations, for Gaussian white noise, the conventional analysis leads to a strong overestimation of the significance of the seasonal trends, because multiple testing has not been taken into account. In addition, when the data exhibit long-term memory (which is the case in most climate records), assumption iii leads to a further overestimation of the trend significance. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with the Holm-Bonferroni method, we demonstrate how to obtain reliable estimates of the significance of the seasonal climate trends in long-term correlated records. For an illustration, we apply our method to representative temperature records from West Antarctica, which is one of the fastest-warming places on Earth and belongs to the crucial tipping elements in the Earth system.

An introduction to modeling longitudinal data with generalized additive models: applications to single-case designs.

PubMed

Sullivan, Kristynn J; Shadish, William R; Steiner, Peter M

2015-03-01

Single-case designs (SCDs) are short time series that assess intervention effects by measuring units repeatedly over time in both the presence and absence of treatment. This article introduces a statistical technique for analyzing SCD data that has not been much used in psychological and educational research: generalized additive models (GAMs). In parametric regression, the researcher must choose a functional form to impose on the data, for example, that trend over time is linear. GAMs reverse this process by letting the data inform the choice of functional form. In this article we review the problem that trend poses in SCDs, discuss how current SCD analytic methods approach trend, describe GAMs as a possible solution, suggest a GAM model testing procedure for examining the presence of trend in SCDs, present a small simulation to show the statistical properties of GAMs, and illustrate the procedure on 3 examples of different lengths. Results suggest that GAMs may be very useful both as a form of sensitivity analysis for checking the plausibility of assumptions about trend and as a primary data analysis strategy for testing treatment effects. We conclude with a discussion of some problems with GAMs and some future directions for research on the application of GAMs to SCDs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Women victims of intentional homicide in Italy: New insights comparing Italian trends to German and U.S. trends, 2008-2014.

PubMed

Terranova, Claudio; Zen, Margherita

2018-01-01

National statistics on female homicide could be a useful tool to evaluate the phenomenon and plan adequate strategies to prevent and reduce this crime. The aim of the study is to contribute to the analysis of intentional female homicides in Italy by comparing Italian trends to German and United States trends from 2008 to 2014. This is a population study based on data deriving primarily from national and European statistical institutes, from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting and from the National Center for Health Statistics. Data were analyzed in relation to trends and age by Chi-square test, Student's t-test and linear regression. Results show that female homicides, unlike male homicides, remained stable in the three countries. Regression analysis showed a higher risk for female homicide in all age groups in the U.S. Middle-aged women result at higher risk, and the majority of murdered women are killed by people they know. These results confirm previous findings and suggest the need to focus also in Italy on preventive strategies to reduce those precipitating factors linked to violence and present in the course of a relationship or within the family. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Bader, Juerg; Gelpke, Verena

1994-01-01

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

Modified visual field trend analysis.

PubMed

De Moraes, Carlos Gustavo V; Ritch, Robert; Tello, Celso; Liebmann, Jeffrey M

2011-01-01

Visual field trend analysis can be influenced by outlying values that may disproportionately affect estimation of the rate of change. We tested a modified approach to visual field trend analysis to minimize this problem. Automated pointwise linear regression (PLR) was used in glaucoma patients with ≥13 SITA-Standard 24-2 VF tests in either eye. In the control group (Group A), conventional PLR using the entire set of VF tests was carried out. In the other 3 groups (study groups), a truncated analysis was done using only the first and last 3 (Group B), first and last 4 (Group C), or first and last 5 (Group D) VF tests. We compared the global slopes (dB/y), number of eyes experiencing significant progression, and significant improvement between groups. Ninety eyes of 90 patients were evaluated. The mean number±SD of VF tests was 15.7±2.6, spanning 7.8±1.7 years. The study groups showed similar global rates of VF change as the control group (Group A=-0.48±0.5, Group B=-0.48±0.6, Group C=-0.48±0.6, Group D=-0.48±0.5 dB/y, P>0.05), and a similar number of eyes reaching a progression endpoint (Group A=53, Group B=52, Group C=49, Group D=53, P>0.05). However, Group B showed fewer eyes presenting VF improvement (false-positives). The modified VF trend-analysis showed greater specificity than conventional PLR in a population with glaucoma.

Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

2015-04-01

We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

Monitoring Springs in the Mojave Desert Using Landsat Time Series Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study, based on Landsat satellite data was to characterize variations and trends over 30 consecutive years (1985-2016) in perennial vegetation green cover at over 400 confirmed Mojave Desert spring locations. These springs were surveyed between in 2015 and 2016 on lands managed in California by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and on several land trusts within the Barstow, Needles, and Ridgecrest BLM Field Offices. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from July Landsat images was computed at each spring location and a trend model was first fit to the multi-year NDVI time series using least squares linear regression.Â

Analysis of ERTS-1 linear features in New York State

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isachsen, Y. W. (Principal Investigator); Fakundiny, R. H.; Forster, S. W.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. All ERTS-1 linears confirmed to date have topographic expression although they may appear as featureless tonal linears on the imagery. A bias is unavoidably introduced against any linears which may parallel raster lines, lithological trends, or the azimuth of solar illumination. Ground study of ERTS-1 topographic lineaments in the Adirondacks indicates: outcrops along linears are even more rare than expected, fault breccias are found along some NNE lineaments, chloritization and slickensiding without brecciation characterize one EW lineament whereas closely-spaced jointing plus a zone of plastic shear define another. Field work in the Catskills suggests that the prominent new NNE lineaments may be surface manifestations of normal faulting in the basement, and that it may become possible to map major joint sets over extensive plateau regions directly on the imagery. Fall and winter images each display some unique linears, and long linears on the fall image commonly appear as aligned segments on the winter scene. A computer-processed color composite image permitted the extraction or additional information on the shaded side of mountains.

Demographic trends among older cannabis users in the United States, 2006–13

PubMed Central

Han, Benjamin H.; Sherman, Scott; Mauro, Pia M.; Martins, Silvia S.; Rotenberg, James; Palamar, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

Background and Aims The ageing US population is providing an unprecedented population of older adults who use recreational drugs. We aimed to estimate the trends in the prevalence of past-year use of cannabis, describe the patterns and attitudes and determine correlates of cannabis use by adults age 50 years and older. Design Secondary analysis of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health survey from 2006 to 2013, a cross-sectional survey given to a nationally representative probability sample of populations living in US households. Setting USA. Participants A total of 47 140 survey respondents aged ≥ 50 years. Measures Estimates and trends of past-year use of cannabis. Findings The prevalence of past-year cannabis use among adults aged ≥ 50 increased significantly from 2006/07 to 2012/13, with a 57.8% relative increase for adults aged 50–64 (linear trend P < 0.001) and a 250% relative increase for those aged ≥ 65 (linear trend P = 0.002). When combining data from 2006 to 2013, 6.9% of older cannabis users met criteria for cannabis abuse or dependence, and the majority of the sample reported perceiving no risk or slight risk associated with monthly cannabis use (85.3%) or weekly use (79%). Past-year users were more likely to be younger, male, non-Hispanic, not have multiple chronic conditions and use tobacco, alcohol or other drugs compared with non-past-year cannabis users. Conclusions The prevalence of cannabis use has increased significantly in recent years among US adults aged ≥ 50 years. PMID:27767235

Identification of rice supply chain risk to DKI Jakarta through Cipinang primary rice market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiarto, D.; Ariwibowo, A.; Mardianto, I.; Surjasa, D.

2018-01-01

This paper identifies several sources of risks in DKI Jakarta rice supply chain that through Cipinang Primary Rice Market (CPRM). Secondary data from several sources were collected and analysed using pareto chart and time series analysis. Based on the pareto analysis, it was known that there was a change in the order of suppliers whereas in 2011, 80% of the supply came only from Cirebon, Karawang and Bandung (West Java Province). While in 2015 the main source of supply changed to Cirebon, Central Java and Karawang. Linear trend equation using decomposition model for Cirebon and Karawang showed trend of decreasing monthly supply while Central Java had a positive trend. Harvest area of wetland paddy in Cirebon and Karawang showed a negative trend in the last 6 years. The data also showed that West Java Province was the province with the largest rice crop area affected by plant organism attack and drought disaster in 2015. DKI Jakarta had several potential supply chain risks from rice supply, drought risk and pests risk where the province of West Java, which previously could become a major supplier began to require supply assistance from other provinces, especially Central Java.

Trend of annual temperature and frequency of extreme events in the MATOPIBA region of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvador, Mozar de A.; de Brito, J. I. B.

2017-06-01

During the 1980s, a new agricultural frontier arouse in Brazil, which occupied part of the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia. Currently, this new frontier is known as the MATOPIBA region. The region went through intense transformations in its social and environmental characteristics, with the emergence of extensive areas of intensive agriculture and large herds. The purpose of this research was to study the climatic variabilities of temperature in the MATOPIBA region through extreme climate indexes of ClimAp tool. Data from 11 weather stations were analyzed for yearly air temperature (maximum and minimum) in the period of 1970 to 2012. To verify the trend in the series, we used methods of linear regression analysis and Kendall-tau test. The annual analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures and of the temperature extremes indexes showed a strong positive trend in practically every series (with p value less than 0.05). These results indicated that the region went through to a significant heating process in the last 3 decades. The indices of extreme also showed a significant positive trend in most of the analyzed stations, indicating a higher frequency of warm days during the year.

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

PubMed

Ionides, Edward L; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A

2013-10-03

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.

Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

PubMed Central

Ionides, Edward L.; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A.

2013-01-01

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association. PMID:24587843

Geologic and mineral and water resources investigations in western Colorado using ERTS-1 data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knepper, D. H., Jr. (Principal Investigator); Hutchinson, R. M.; Sawatzky, D. L.; Trexler, D. W.; Bruns, D. L.; Nicolais, S. M.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Topography was found to be the most important factor defining folds on ERTS-1 imagery of northwestern Colorado; tonal variations caused by rock reflectance and vegetation type and density are the next most important factors. Photo-linears mapped on ERTS-1 imagery of central Colorado correlate well with ground-measured joint and fracture trends. In addition, photo-linears have been successfully used to determine the location and distribution of metallic mineral deposits in the Colorado Mineral Belt. True color composites are best for general geologic analysis and false color composites prepared with positive/negative masks are useful for enhancing local geologic phenomena. During geologic analysis of any given area, ERTS-1 imagery from several different dates should be studied.

Changes in antibiotic usage and susceptibility in nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates following the introduction of ertapenem to hospital formulary.

PubMed

Graber, C J; Hutchings, C; Dong, F; Lee, W; Chung, J K; Tran, T

2012-01-01

There is concern that widespread usage of ertapenem may promote cross-resistance to other carbapenems. To analyse the impact that adding ertapenem to our hospital formulary had on usage of other broad-spectrum agents and on susceptibilities of nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates, we performed interrupted time-series analyses to determine the change in linear trend in antibiotic usage and change in mean proportion and linear trend of susceptibility pre- (March 2004-June 2005) and post- (July 2005-December 2008) ertapenem introduction. Usage of piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·0013) and ampicillin-sulbactam (P=0·035) declined post-ertapenem introduction. For Enterobacteriaceae, the mean proportion susceptible to ciprofloxacin (P=0·016) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·038) increased, while the linear trend in susceptibility significantly increased for cefepime (P=0·012) but declined for ceftriaxone (P=0·0032). For Pseudomonas, the mean proportion susceptible to cefepime (P=0·011) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·028) increased, as did the linear trend in susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (P=0·028). Notably, no significant changes in carbapenem susceptibility were observed.

Simplified large African carnivore density estimators from track indices.

PubMed

Winterbach, Christiaan W; Ferreira, Sam M; Funston, Paul J; Somers, Michael J

2016-01-01

The range, population size and trend of large carnivores are important parameters to assess their status globally and to plan conservation strategies. One can use linear models to assess population size and trends of large carnivores from track-based surveys on suitable substrates. The conventional approach of a linear model with intercept may not intercept at zero, but may fit the data better than linear model through the origin. We assess whether a linear regression through the origin is more appropriate than a linear regression with intercept to model large African carnivore densities and track indices. We did simple linear regression with intercept analysis and simple linear regression through the origin and used the confidence interval for ß in the linear model y  =  αx  + ß, Standard Error of Estimate, Mean Squares Residual and Akaike Information Criteria to evaluate the models. The Lion on Clay and Low Density on Sand models with intercept were not significant ( P  > 0.05). The other four models with intercept and the six models thorough origin were all significant ( P  < 0.05). The models using linear regression with intercept all included zero in the confidence interval for ß and the null hypothesis that ß = 0 could not be rejected. All models showed that the linear model through the origin provided a better fit than the linear model with intercept, as indicated by the Standard Error of Estimate and Mean Square Residuals. Akaike Information Criteria showed that linear models through the origin were better and that none of the linear models with intercept had substantial support. Our results showed that linear regression through the origin is justified over the more typical linear regression with intercept for all models we tested. A general model can be used to estimate large carnivore densities from track densities across species and study areas. The formula observed track density = 3.26 × carnivore density can be used to estimate densities of large African carnivores using track counts on sandy substrates in areas where carnivore densities are 0.27 carnivores/100 km 2 or higher. To improve the current models, we need independent data to validate the models and data to test for non-linear relationship between track indices and true density at low densities.

Impact of "JOBM": ISI Impact Factor Places the "Journal of Organizational Behavior Management" Third in Applied Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hantula, Donald A.

2006-01-01

The ISI Impact Factor for "JOBM" is 1.793, placing it third in the JCR rankings for journals in applied psychology with a sharply accelerating linear trend over the past 5 years. This article reviews the Impact Factor and raises questions regarding its reliability and validity and then considers a citation analysis of "JOBM" in light of the…

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

Spatial heterogeneity in statistical power to detect changes in lake area in Alaskan National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicol, Samuel; Roach, Jennifer K.; Griffith, Brad

2013-01-01

Over the past 50 years, the number and size of high-latitude lakes have decreased throughout many regions; however, individual lake trends have been variable in direction and magnitude. This spatial heterogeneity in lake change makes statistical detection of temporal trends challenging, particularly in small analysis areas where weak trends are difficult to separate from inter- and intra-annual variability. Factors affecting trend detection include inherent variability, trend magnitude, and sample size. In this paper, we investigated how the statistical power to detect average linear trends in lake size of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 %/year was affected by the size of the analysis area and the number of years of monitoring in National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. We estimated power for large (930–4,560 sq km) study areas within refuges and for 2.6, 12.9, and 25.9 sq km cells nested within study areas over temporal extents of 4–50 years. We found that: (1) trends in study areas could be detected within 5–15 years, (2) trends smaller than 2.0 %/year would take >50 years to detect in cells within study areas, and (3) there was substantial spatial variation in the time required to detect change among cells. Power was particularly low in the smallest cells which typically had the fewest lakes. Because small but ecologically meaningful trends may take decades to detect, early establishment of long-term monitoring will enhance power to detect change. Our results have broad applicability and our method is useful for any study involving change detection among variable spatial and temporal extents.

Applicability of computer-aided comprehensive tool (LINDA: LINeament Detection and Analysis) and shaded digital elevation model for characterizing and interpreting morphotectonic features from lineaments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoud, Alaa; Koike, Katsuaki

2017-09-01

Detection and analysis of linear features related to surface and subsurface structures have been deemed necessary in natural resource exploration and earth surface instability assessment. Subjectivity in choosing control parameters required in conventional methods of lineament detection may cause unreliable results. To reduce this ambiguity, we developed LINDA (LINeament Detection and Analysis), an integrated tool with graphical user interface in Visual Basic. This tool automates processes of detection and analysis of linear features from grid data of topography (digital elevation model; DEM), gravity and magnetic surfaces, as well as data from remote sensing imagery. A simple interface with five display windows forms a user-friendly interactive environment. The interface facilitates grid data shading, detection and grouping of segments, lineament analyses for calculating strike and dip and estimating fault type, and interactive viewing of lineament geometry. Density maps of the center and intersection points of linear features (segments and lineaments) are also included. A systematic analysis of test DEMs and Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery datasets in the North and South Eastern Deserts of Egypt is implemented to demonstrate the capability of LINDA and correct use of its functions. Linear features from the DEM are superior to those from the imagery in terms of frequency, but both linear features agree with location and direction of V-shaped valleys and dykes and reference fault data. Through the case studies, LINDA applicability is demonstrated to highlight dominant structural trends, which can aid understanding of geodynamic frameworks in any region.

Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-10-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Uncertainty in Detecting Trend: A New Criterion and Its Applications to Global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Streamflow droughts in major watershed regions of the conterminous U.S.: Understanding evolution of historic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournasiri Poshtiri, M.; Pal, I.

2015-12-01

Climate non-stationarity affects regional hydrological extremes. This research looks into historic patterns of streamflow drought indicators and their evolution for major watershed regions in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The results indicate general linear and non-linear drying trends, particularly in the last four decades, as opposed to wetting trends reported in previous studies. Regional differences in the trends are notable, and echo the local climatic changes documented in the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA). A reversal of linear trends is seen for some northern regions after 1980s. Patterns in return periods and corresponding return values of the indicators are also examined, which suggests changing risk conditions that are important for water-resources decision-making. Persistent or flash drought conditions in a river can lead to chronic or short-term water scarcity—a main driver of societal and cross-boundary conflicts. Thus, this research identifies "hotspot" locations where suitable adaptive management measures are most needed.

Annual variation in Internet keyword searches: Linking dieting interest to obesity and negative health outcomes.

PubMed

Markey, Patrick M; Markey, Charlotte N

2013-07-01

This study investigated the annual variation in Internet searches regarding dieting. Time-series analysis was first used to examine the annual trends of Google keyword searches during the past 7 years for topics related to dieting within the United States. The results indicated that keyword searches for dieting fit a consistent 12-month linear model, peaking in January (following New Year's Eve) and then linearly decreasing until surging again the following January. Additional state-level analyses revealed that the size of the December-January dieting-related keyword surge was predictive of both obesity and mortality rates due to diabetes, heart disease, and stroke.

An emergentist vs a linear approach to social change processes: a gender look in contemporary India between modernity and Hindu tradition.

PubMed

Condorelli, Rosalia

2015-01-01

Using Census of India data from 1901 to 2011 and national and international reports on women's condition in India, beginning with sex ratio trends according to regional distribution up to female infanticides and sex-selective abortions and dowry deaths, this study examines the sociological aspects of the gender imbalance in modern contemporary India. Gender inequality persistence in India proves that new values and structures do not necessarily lead to the disappearance of older forms, but they can co-exist with mutual adaptations and reinforcements. Data analysis suggests that these unexpected combinations are not comprehensible in light of a linear concept of social change which is founded, in turn, on a concept of social systems as linear interaction systems that relate to environmental perturbations according to proportional cause and effect relationships. From this perspective, in fact, behavioral attitudes and interaction relationships should be less and less proportionally regulated by traditional values and practices as exposure to modernizing influences increases. And progressive decreases should be found in rates of social indicators of gender inequality like dowry deaths (the inverse should be found in sex ratio trends). However, data does not confirm these trends. This finding leads to emphasize a new theoretical and methodological approach toward social systems study, namely the conception of social systems as complex adaptive systems and the consequential emergentist, nonlinear conception of social change processes. Within the framework of emergentist theory of social change is it possible to understand the lasting strength of the patriarchal tradition and its problematic consequences in the modern contemporary India.

Large decline in injecting drug use in Amsterdam, 1986-1998: explanatory mechanisms and determinants of injecting transitions.

PubMed

van Ameijden, E J; Coutinho, R A

2001-05-01

To study community wide trends in injecting prevalence and trends in injecting transitions, and determinants. Open cohort study with follow up every four months (Amsterdam Cohort Study). Generalised estimating equations were used for statistical analysis. Amsterdam has adopted a harm reduction approach as drug policy. 996 drug users who were recruited from 1986 to 1998, mainly at methadone programmes, who paid 13620 cohort visits. The prevalence of injecting decreased exponentially (66% to 36% in four to six monthly periods). Selective mortality and migration could maximally explain 33% of this decline. Instead, injecting initiation linearly decreased (4.1% to 0.7% per visit), cessation exponentially increased (10.0% to 17.1%), and relapse linearly decreased (21.3% to 11.8%). Non-injecting cocaine use (mainly pre-cooked, comparable to crack) and heroin use strongly increased. Trends were not attributable to changes in the study sample. Harm reduction, including large scale needle exchange programmes, does not lead to an increase in injecting drug use. The injecting decline seems mainly attributable to ecological factors (for example, drug culture and market). Prevention of injecting is possible and peer-based interventions may be effective. The consequences of the recent upsurge in crack use requires further study.

The association of longitudinal trend of fasting plasma glucose with retinal microvasculature in people without established diabetes.

PubMed

Hu, Yin; Niu, Yong; Wang, Dandan; Wang, Ying; Holden, Brien A; He, Mingguang

2015-01-22

Structural changes of retinal vasculature, such as altered retinal vascular calibers, are considered as early signs of systemic vascular damage. We examined the associations of 5-year mean level, longitudinal trend, and fluctuation in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) with retinal vascular caliber in people without established diabetes. A prospective study was conducted in a cohort of Chinese people age ≥40 years in Guangzhou, southern China. The FPG was measured at baseline in 2008 and annually until 2012. In 2012, retinal vascular caliber was assessed using standard fundus photographs and validated software. A total of 3645 baseline nondiabetic participants with baseline and follow-up data on FPG for 3 or more visits was included for statistical analysis. The associations of retinal vascular caliber with 5-year mean FPG level, longitudinal FPG trend (slope of linear regression-FPG), and fluctuation (standard deviation and root mean square error of FPG) were analyzed using multivariable linear regression analyses. Multivariate regression models adjusted for baseline FPG and other potential confounders showed that a 10% annual increase in FPG was associated independently with a 2.65-μm narrowing in retinal arterioles (P = 0.008) and a 3.47-μm widening in venules (P = 0. 0.004). Associations with mean FPG level and fluctuation were not statistically significant. Annual rising trend in FPG, but not its mean level or fluctuation, is associated with altered retinal vasculature in nondiabetic people. Copyright 2015 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

125Te NMR chemical-shift trends in PbTe–GeTe and PbTe–SnTe alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Njegic, Bosiljka; Levin, Evgenii M.; Schmidt-Rohr, Klaus

2013-10-08

Complex tellurides, such as doped PbTe, GeTe, and their alloys, are among the best thermoelectric materials. Knowledge of the change in 125Te NMR chemical shift due to bonding to dopant or “solute” atoms is useful for determination of phase composition, peak assignment, and analysis of local bonding. We have measured the 125Te NMR chemical shifts in PbTe-based alloys, Pb 1-xGe xTe and Pb 1-xSn xTe, which have a rocksalt-like structure, and analyzed their trends. For low x, several peaks are resolved in the 22-kHz MAS 125Te NMR spectra. A simple linear trend in chemical shifts with the number of Pbmore » neighbors is observed. No evidence of a proposed ferroelectric displacement of Ge atoms in a cubic PbTe matrix is detected at low Ge concentrations. The observed chemical shift trends are compared with the results of DFT calculations, which confirm the linear dependence on the composition of the first-neighbor shell. The data enable determination of the composition of various phases in multiphase telluride materials. They also provide estimates of the 125Te chemical shifts of GeTe and SnTe (+970 and +400±150 ppm, respectively, from PbTe), which are otherwise difficult to access due to Knight shifts of many hundreds of ppm in neat GeTe and SnTe.« less

[Completeness of notifications of violence perpetrated against adolescents in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil].

PubMed

Santos, Taciana Mirella Batista Dos; Cardoso, Mirian Domingos; Pitangui, Ana Carolina Rodarti; Santos, Yasmim Gabriella Cardoso; Paiva, Saul Martins; Melo, João Paulo Ramos; Silva, Lygia Maria Pereira

2016-12-01

The scope of this study was to analyze the trend of completeness of the data on violence perpetrated against adolescents registered in the State of Pernambuco between 2009 and 2012. This involved a cross-sectional survey of 5,259 adolescents, who were the victims of violence reported in SINAN-VIVA of the Pernambuco State Health Department. Simple linear regression was used to investigate the trend of completeness of the variables. The percentages of completeness were considered to be dependent variables (Y) and the number of years as independent variables (X). The results show a significant increase of 204% in the number of notifications. However, of the 34 variables analyzed, 27 (79.4%) showed a stationary trend, 6 (17.6%) a downward trend, and only one variable (2.9%) an upward trend. Completeness was considered 'Very Poor' for the variables: Education (47.3%), Full Address (21.3%), Occurrence Time (38%) and Use of Alcohol by the Attacker (47%). Therefore, despite the large increase in the number of notifications, data quality continued to be compromised, hampering a more realistic analysis of this group.

Effects of urbanization on climate of İstanbul and Ankara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karaca, Mehmet; Tayanç, Mete; Toros, Hüseyi˙n.

The purpose of this work is to study regional climate change and investigate the effects of urbanization on climates of two largest cities in Turkey: İstanbul and Ankara. Air temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) data of İstanbul and Ankara are analyzed to study regional climate change and to understand the possible effects of urbanization on the climate of these regions owing to industrialization and large flux of migration from rural parts of the country. For the trend analysis, linear regression and the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test is used. A significant upward trend is found in the urban temperatures of southern İstanbul, which is the most highly populated and industrialized part of the city compared to its rural parts. Northern stations do not show any warming trend; instead, they have a cooling trend. Urbanization and industrialization in the southern part of İstanbul has a negative effect on regional cooling. In spite of Ankara's urban geometry and air pollution problem, the urban station in Ankara does not show any warming trend. A significant urban heat island intensity ( urban-rural) is not observed in Ankara.

Projection display technology and product trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, Frederic J.

1999-05-01

Major technology and market trends that could generate a 20 billion dollar electronic projector market by 2010 are reviewed in the perspective of recent product introductions. A log linear analysis shows that the light outputs of benchmark transportable data video projectors have increased at a rate of almost 90 percent per year since 1993. The list prices of these same projectors have decreased at a rate of over 40 percent per year. The tradeoffs of light output vs. resolution and weight are illustrated. Recent trends in projector efficacy vs. year are discussed. Lumen output per dollar of list price is shown to be a useful market metric. Continued technical advances and innovations including higher throughput light valve technologies with integrated drivers, brighter light source, field sequential color, integrated- and micro-optical components, and aerospace materials are likely to sustain these trends. The new technologies will enable projection displays for entertainment and computer applications with unprecedented levels of performance, compactness, and cost-effectiveness.

Separation of Trend and Chaotic Components of Time Series and Estimation of Their Characteristics by Linear Splines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kryanev, A. V.; Ivanov, V. V.; Romanova, A. O.; Sevastyanov, L. A.; Udumyan, D. K.

2018-03-01

This paper considers the problem of separating the trend and the chaotic component of chaotic time series in the absence of information on the characteristics of the chaotic component. Such a problem arises in nuclear physics, biomedicine, and many other applied fields. The scheme has two stages. At the first stage, smoothing linear splines with different values of smoothing parameter are used to separate the "trend component." At the second stage, the method of least squares is used to find the unknown variance σ2 of the noise component.

Spacecraft-borne long life cryogenic refrigeration: Status and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, A. L.

1983-01-01

The status of cryogenic refrigerator development intended for, or possibly applicable to, long life spacecraft-borne application is reviewed. Based on these efforts, the general development trends are identified. Using currently projected technology needs, the various trends are compared and evaluated. The linear drive, non-contacting bearing Stirling cycle refrigerator concept appears to be the best current approach that will meet the technology projection requirements for spacecraft-borne cryogenic refrigerators. However, a multiply redundant set of lightweight, moderate life, moderate reliability Stirling cycle cryogenic refrigerators using high-speed linear drive and sliding contact bearings may possibly suffice.

Rising Intragenerational Occupational Mobility in the United States, 1969 to 2011

PubMed Central

Jarvis, Benjamin F.; Song, Xi

2017-01-01

Despite the theoretical importance of intragenerational mobility and its connection to intergenerational mobility, no study since the 1970s has documented trends in intragenerational occupational mobility. The present article fills this intellectual gap by presenting evidence of an increasing trend in intragenerational mobility in the United States from 1969 to 2011. We decompose the trend using a nested occupational classification scheme that distinguishes between disaggregated micro-classes and progressively more aggregated meso-classes, macro-classes, and manual and nonmanual sectors. Log-linear analysis reveals that mobility increased across the occupational structure at nearly all levels of aggregation, especially after the early 1990s. Controlling for structural changes in occupational distributions modifies, but does not substantially alter, these findings. Trends are qualitatively similar for men and women. We connect increasing mobility to other macro-economic trends dating back to the 1970s, including changing labor force composition, technologies, employment relations, and industrial structures. We reassert the sociological significance of intragenerational mobility and discuss how increasing variability in occupational transitions within careers may counteract or mask trends in intergenerational mobility, across occupations and across more broadly construed social classes. PMID:28966346

Trend analysis of the Aerosol Optical Thickness and Ångström Exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover) and analyzing the MEEMD-extracted trends of these climatic elements, we discussed possible driving factors of the time-varying trends of NDVI in several specific regions where trend reversals occurred.

Recent lung cancer mortality trends in Europe: effect of national smoke-free legislation strengthening.

PubMed

López-Campos, Jose L; Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel; Fernandez, Esteve; Soriano, Joan B

2018-07-01

The impact of smoke-free legislation within European Union (EU) countries on lung cancer mortality has not been evaluated to date. We aimed to determine lung cancer mortality trends in the EU-27 by sex, age, and calendar year for the period of 1994 and 2012, and relate them with changes in tobacco legislation at the national level. Deaths by Eurostat in each European country were analyzed, focusing on ICD-10 codes C33 and C34 from the years 1994 to 2012. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASR) were estimated separately for women and men in the EU-27 total and within country for each one of the years studied, and the significance of changing trends was estimated by joinpoint regression analysis, exploring lag times after initiation of smoke-free legislation in every country, if any. From 1994 to 2012, there were 4 681 877 deaths from lung cancer in Europe (3 491 607 in men and 1 190 180 in women) and a nearly linear decrease in mortality rates because of lung cancer in men from was observed1994 to 2012, mirrored in women by an upward trend, narrowing the sex gap during the study period from 5.1 in 1994 to 2.8 in 2012. Joinpoint regression analysis identified a number of trend changes over time, but it appears that they were unrelated to the implementation of smoke-free legislations. A few years after the introduction of smoke-free legislations across Europe, trends of lung cancer mortality trends have not changed.

Language and country preponderance trends in MEDLINE and its causes.

PubMed

Loria, Alvar; Arroyo, Pedro

2005-07-01

The authors characterized the output of MEDLINE papers by language and country of publication during a thirty-four-year time period. We classified MEDLINE's journal articles by country of publication (Anglos/Non-Anglos) and language (English/Non-English) for the years 1966 and from 1970 to 2000 at five-year intervals. Eight English-speaking countries were considered Anglos. Linear regression analysis of number of papers versus time was performed. The global number of papers increased linearly at a rate of 8,142 papers per year. Anglo and English papers also increased linearly (6,740 and 9,199, respectively). Journals of Non-Anglo countries accounted for 25% of the English language increase (2,438 per year). Only Non-English papers decreased at a rate of 1,056 fewer papers per year. These trends have led to overwhelming shares of English and Anglo papers in MEDLINE. In 2000, 68% of all papers were published in the 8 Anglo countries and 90% were written in English. The Anglo and English preponderances appear to be a consequence of at least two phenomena: (1) editorial policy changes in MEDLINE and in some journals from Non-Anglo countries and (2) factors affecting Non-Anglo researchers in the third world (publication constraints, migration, and undersupport). These are tentative conclusions that need confirmation.

Quantifying Main Trends in Lysozyme Nucleation: The Effect of Precipitant Concentration and Impurities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, Michael W.; Judge, Russell A.; Pusey, Marc L.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Full factorial experiment design incorporating multi-linear regression analysis of the experimental data allows the main trends and effects to be quickly identified while using only a limited number of experiments. These techniques were used to identify the effect of precipitant concentration and the presence of an impurity, the physiological lysozyme dimer, on the nucleation rate and crystal dimensions of the tetragonal form of chicken egg white lysozyme. Increasing precipitant concentration was found to decrease crystal numbers, the magnitude of this effect also depending on the supersaturation. The presence of the dimer generally increased nucleation. The crystal axial ratio decreased with increasing precipitant concentration independent of impurity.

Counties eliminating racial disparities in colorectal cancer mortality.

PubMed

Rust, George; Zhang, Shun; Yu, Zhongyuan; Caplan, Lee; Jain, Sanjay; Ayer, Turgay; McRoy, Luceta; Levine, Robert S

2016-06-01

Although colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality rates are declining, racial-ethnic disparities in CRC mortality nationally are widening. Herein, the authors attempted to identify county-level variations in this pattern, and to characterize counties with improving disparity trends. The authors examined 20-year trends in US county-level black-white disparities in CRC age-adjusted mortality rates during the study period between 1989 and 2010. Using a mixed linear model, counties were grouped into mutually exclusive patterns of black-white racial disparity trends in age-adjusted CRC mortality across 20 three-year rolling average data points. County-level characteristics from census data and from the Area Health Resources File were normalized and entered into a principal component analysis. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to test the relation between these factors (clusters of related contextual variables) and the disparity trend pattern group for each county. Counties were grouped into 4 disparity trend pattern groups: 1) persistent disparity (parallel black and white trend lines); 2) diverging (widening disparity); 3) sustained equality; and 4) converging (moving from disparate outcomes toward equality). The initial principal component analysis clustered the 82 independent variables into a smaller number of components, 6 of which explained 47% of the county-level variation in disparity trend patterns. County-level variation in social determinants, health care workforce, and health systems all were found to contribute to variations in cancer mortality disparity trend patterns from 1990 through 2010. Counties sustaining equality over time or moving from disparities to equality in cancer mortality suggest that disparities are not inevitable, and provide hope that more communities can achieve optimal and equitable cancer outcomes for all. Cancer 2016;122:1735-48. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Trends in spawning populations of Pacific anadromous salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konkel, G.W.; McIntyre, J.D.

1987-01-01

Annual escapement records for 1968-1984 for five species of Pacific salmon-chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), coho (O. kisutch), sockeye (O. nerka), pink (O. gorbuscha), and chum (O. keta)—and steelhead (Salmo gairdneri) were obtained from published and unpublished sources and organized in a computer database. More than 25,500 escapement records were obtained for more than 1,100 locations throughout Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. Escapement trends for naturally reproducing populations for which data were available for at least 7 years from 1968 to 1984 and at least 4 years from 1975 to 1984 were analyzed by linear regression. Significant trends were observed in about 30% of the 886 populations examined. Trends were summarized by species for three geographic regions in Alaska and four in the Pacific Northwest (including California). For chinook, sockeye, and pink salmon, trends were predominantly increasing in the Alaska regions and either lacking or predominantly decreasing in most of the Pacific Northwest regions; for coho and chum salmon, trends were predominantly decreasing in one or more Alaska regions as well as in most of the Pacific Northwest regions. For steelhead, too few populations were examined to enable us to characterize trends throughout their range. Among the 657 salmonid populations excluded from the trend analysis because the data sets were incomplete, 13 (of which 2 were in Alaska) declined to zero during the period of analysis. For coho, sockeye, pink, and chum salmon and steelhead, major data gaps were revealed by a comparison of the geographic distribution of escapement records with the spawning distribution of the species. For chinook salmon, escapement records were more geographically representative of the spawning distribution.

Analysis of ERTS-1 imagery of Wyoming and its application to evaluation of Wyoming's natural resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blackstone, D. L., Jr.

1972-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Structurally linear elements in the vicinity of the Rock Springs Uplift, Sweetwater County, Wyoming are reported for the first time. One element trends N 40 deg W near Farson, Wyoming and the other N 65 deg E from Rock Springs. These elements confirm the block-like or mosaic pattern of major structural elements in Wyoming.

Linguistic Pattern Analysis of Misspellings of Typically Developing Writers in Grades 1 to 9

PubMed Central

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Silliman, Elaine R.; Berninger, Virginia W.; Dow, Michael

2012-01-01

Purpose A mixed methods approach, evaluating triple word form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Method Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in grades 1–9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Results Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between grades 4–5. Similar error types were noted across age groups but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Conclusions Triple word-form theory was supported. By grade 1, orthographic errors predominated and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects non-linear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling. PMID:22473834

Non-linear trends and fluctuations in temperature during different growth stages of summer maize in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Wu, Jidong; Wang, Xu; He, Xin; Li, Ning

2017-12-01

North China Plain has undergone severe warming trends since the 1950s, but whether this trend is the same during different growth phases for crops remains unknown. Thus, we analyzed the non-linear changes in the minimum temperature (T min ), mean temperature (T mean ) and maximum temperature (T max ) using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method during each growth stage of summer maize based on daily temperature data from 1960 to 2014. Our results strongly suggest that the trends and fluctuations in temperature change are non-linear. These changes can be categorized into four types of trend change according to the combinations of decreasing and increasing trends, and 8 fluctuation modes dominated by the fluctuations of expansion and shrinkage. The amplitude of the fluctuation is primarily expansion in the sowing-jointing stage and shrinkage in the jointing-maturity stage. Moreover, the temperature changes are inconsistent within each growth stage and are not consistent with the overall warming trend observed over the last 55 years. A transition period occurred in both the 1980s and the 1990s for temperatures during the sowing-tasseling stage. Furthermore, the cooling trend of the T max was significant in the sowing-emergence stage, while this cooling trend was not obvious for both T mean and T min in the jointing-tasseling stage. These results showed that temperature change was significantly different in different stages of the maize growth season. The results can serve as a scientific basis for a better understanding of the actual changes in the regional surface air temperature and agronomic heat resources.

Modeling of time trends and interactions in vital rates using restricted regression splines.

PubMed

Heuer, C

1997-03-01

For the analysis of time trends in incidence and mortality rates, the age-period-cohort (apc) model has became a widely accepted method. The considered data are arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period, which are mostly subdivided into 5- or 10-year intervals. The disadvantage of this approach is the loss of information by data aggregation and the problems of estimating interactions in the two-way layout without replications. In this article we show how splines can be useful when yearly data, i.e., 1-year age groups and 1-year periods, are given. The estimated spline curves are still smooth and represent yearly changes in the time trends. Further, it is straightforward to include interaction terms by the tensor product of the spline functions. If the data are given in a nonrectangular table, e.g., 5-year age groups and 1-year periods, the period and cohort variables can be parameterized by splines, while the age variable is parameterized as fixed effect levels, which leads to a semiparametric apc model. An important methodological issue in developing the nonparametric and semiparametric models is stability of the estimated spline curve at the boundaries. Here cubic regression splines will be used, which are constrained to be linear in the tails. Another point of importance is the nonidentifiability problem due to the linear dependency of the three time variables. This will be handled by decomposing the basis of each spline by orthogonal projection into constant, linear, and nonlinear terms, as suggested by Holford (1983, Biometrics 39, 311-324) for the traditional apc model. The advantage of using splines for yearly data compared to the traditional approach for aggregated data is the more accurate curve estimation for the nonlinear trend changes and the simple way of modeling interactions between the time variables. The method will be demonstrated with hypothetical data as well as with cancer mortality data.

Slow transients recorded by the cGPS network FreDNet at the northern Adria microplate boundary (NE-Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Giuliana; Fabris, Paolo; Zuliani, David

2013-04-01

The northern tip of the Adria micro-plate (NE-Italy) is continuously monitored by the Friuli Regional Deformation Network (FReDNet) of OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale), consisting of 15 GNSS permanent sites, the first eight of which were installed between 2002 and 2004. Additional information on the strain field in the region comes from the 10 GNSS permanent sites of the Marussi network of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia regional council, some of which record continuously since 1999. Having at disposal time-series of a certain length (around ten-years), it is possible to evaluate with reliability not only the plate motion direction and velocity, represented by the linear trend of the horizontal components of the records, but also the possible plate acceleration, due to the superposition of other terms of the strain field time-space variations, with different frequency. With the aim of investigating such terms, we first processed the GPS data of the longest time series from both networks, starting from 2002, using GAMIT/GLOBK, eliminated the outliers, and filled the eventual short gaps in the data through linear interpolation. A low-band pass filter allowed obtaining the time-series cleaned from the components with frequencies higher than 1.5 years, so to eliminate the annual and quasi-annual terms, and the highest frequencies. The so-obtained time-series for the two horizontal components result dominated by a linear trend, as expected, to which clear oscillations of some years of duration are superimposed. From the analysis of the linear trend, the resulting velocity field suggest crustal shortening, with values ranging between 0.6 and 2.8 mm/year, decreasing from South to North and, more slightly, from East to West. This is in agreement with preceding observations and with the geodynamic character of the region, located in the area of convergence between Adria microplate and Eurasia. As regards as the deviations from the linear trend, the present work focuses on a sort of transient, of "period" between 1.5 and 2.0 years, involving 11 of the 13 stations considered, distributed over the whole area, and causing a bending along the main tectonic directions. In order to state, whether the transient is due to hydrologic or tectonic phenomena, data from rainfalls from the meteorological stations of the regional council networks nearest to each of the GNSS stations have been similarly analysed and compared. In particular, the cumulative de-trended curves have been considered and cross-correlated with the deformation data. The correlation, however, is generally poor. The next step will be the comparison with the seismic activity in the region, from the catalogue of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia seismological network, managed and ruled by OGS.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmueller, Klaus; Pozzer, Andrea; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. By relating the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface wind, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle, we identify regions where these attributes are significantly correlated to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. The Fertile Crescent turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD trend over these countries. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trend and interannual variability can be attributed to the above mentioned dust cycle parameters, confirming that the AOD increase is predominantly driven by dust. In particular, the positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. This suggests that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change. Based on simulations using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), we interpret the correlations identified in the observational data in terms of causal relationships.

Using Generalized Additive Models to Analyze Single-Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadish, William; Sullivan, Kristynn

2013-01-01

Many analyses for single-case designs (SCDs)--including nearly all the effect size indicators-- currently assume no trend in the data. Regression and multilevel models allow for trend, but usually test only linear trend and have no principled way of knowing if higher order trends should be represented in the model. This paper shows how Generalized…

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2015-04-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS (LOng Term Ozone Simulation - EURopean Operational Smog) to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by RACMO2 (Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel). Observations at European rural background sites have been used as a reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data, stringent selection criteria were applied, including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulfur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990s, while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000 and 2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulfate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured well these non-linear responses to the emission changes. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module, trends in the formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulfate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses in the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990s used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. H. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2014-07-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by the regional climate model RACMO2. Observations at European rural background sites have been used as reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data stringent selection criteria were applied including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the day-to-day, seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulphur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both, the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990's while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000-2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulphate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are significantly lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured these non-linear responses to the emission changes well. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module trends in formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulphate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses to the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990's used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

PubMed Central

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

Using satellite measurements of N2O to remove dynamical variability from HCl measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Strahan, Susan E.

2018-04-01

Column HCl measurements show deviations from the expected slow decline following the regulation of chlorine-containing compounds by the Montreal Protocol. We use the simultaneous measurements of N2O and HCl by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to examine this problem. We find that the use of N2O measurements at a specific altitude to represent the impact of dynamical variability on HCl results in a derived linear trend in HCl that is negative (ranging from -2.5 to 5.3 % decade-1) at all altitudes between 68 and 10 hPa. These trends are at or near 2σ statistical significance at all pressure levels between 68 and 10 hPa. This shows that analysis of simultaneous measurements of several constituents is a useful approach to identify small trends from data records that are strongly influenced by dynamical interannual variability.

New Trends in Educational Lighting Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Peter

2001-01-01

Explores technological trends for improving campus lighting, including the use of direct-indirect suspended fluorescent lighting, suspended linear lighting, high-efficiency optical systems, and occupancy and daylight sensors. (GR)

Effect of the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign on trends in mental-illness-related public stigma among the English population in 2003-13: an analysis of survey data.

PubMed

Evans-Lacko, Sara; Corker, Elizabeth; Williams, Paul; Henderson, Claire; Thornicroft, Graham

2014-07-01

Understanding trends and effective mechanisms that are likely to reduce public stigma and discrimination towards people with mental illness is important. We aimed to assess changes in public stigma in England after the introduction of the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign. We used data from the 2003 and 2007-13 national Attitudes to Mental Illness surveys to investigate 10-year trends in public attitudes across England before and during the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign. We present annual mean scores for attitude items related to prejudice and exclusion, and tolerance and support for community care. We also present an extrapolated linear trend line for the years 2009-13 and estimate population attitude scores without the campaign. We present unadjusted and adjusted linear regression models. In addition, we used multivariable linear regression models fitted to data aggregated by region to investigate whether a dose-effect response exists between campaign awareness and regional outcomes related to knowledge, attitudes, and intended behaviour. About 1700 respondents were surveyed each year. Significant increases in positive attitudes related to prejudice and exclusion occurred after the Time to Change campaign. In the multivariable analysis, we noted a significant increase in positive attitudes in relation to prejudice and exclusion after the launch of Time to Change (reverse-coded Z score 0·02, 95% CI 0·01 to 0·05; p=0·01), but not for tolerance and support for community care (Z score 0·01, -0·01 to 0·03; p=0·27). We also found evidence for a dose-effect relation between campaign awareness and regional improvement in knowledge (p=0·004) and attitudes (tolerance and support p<0·0001; prejudice and exclusion p=0·001), but not intended behaviour (p=0·20). The positive effects of Time to Change seem to be significant and moderate. Although attitudes are probably more at risk of deterioration during times of economic hardship, anti-stigma programmes might still play an active part in long-term reduction of stigma and discrimination, especially in relation to prejudice and exclusion of people with mental health problems. UK Department of Health, Comic Relief, Big Lottery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Many-core graph analytics using accelerated sparse linear algebra routines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozacik, Stephen; Paolini, Aaron L.; Fox, Paul; Kelmelis, Eric

2016-05-01

Graph analytics is a key component in identifying emerging trends and threats in many real-world applications. Largescale graph analytics frameworks provide a convenient and highly-scalable platform for developing algorithms to analyze large datasets. Although conceptually scalable, these techniques exhibit poor performance on modern computational hardware. Another model of graph computation has emerged that promises improved performance and scalability by using abstract linear algebra operations as the basis for graph analysis as laid out by the GraphBLAS standard. By using sparse linear algebra as the basis, existing highly efficient algorithms can be adapted to perform computations on the graph. This approach, however, is often less intuitive to graph analytics experts, who are accustomed to vertex-centric APIs such as Giraph, GraphX, and Tinkerpop. We are developing an implementation of the high-level operations supported by these APIs in terms of linear algebra operations. This implementation is be backed by many-core implementations of the fundamental GraphBLAS operations required, and offers the advantages of both the intuitive programming model of a vertex-centric API and the performance of a sparse linear algebra implementation. This technology can reduce the number of nodes required, as well as the run-time for a graph analysis problem, enabling customers to perform more complex analysis with less hardware at lower cost. All of this can be accomplished without the requirement for the customer to make any changes to their analytics code, thanks to the compatibility with existing graph APIs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartolac, S; Letourneau, D; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario

Purpose: Application of process control theory in quality assurance programs promises to allow earlier identification of problems and potentially better quality in delivery than traditional paradigms based primarily on tolerances and action levels. The purpose of this project was to characterize underlying seasonal variations in linear accelerator output that can be used to improve performance or trigger preemptive maintenance. Methods: Review of runtime plots of daily (6 MV) output data acquired using in house ion chamber based devices over three years and for fifteen linear accelerators of varying make and model were evaluated. Shifts in output due to known interventionsmore » with the machines were subtracted from the data to model an uncorrected scenario for each linear accelerator. Observable linear trends were also removed from the data prior to evaluation of periodic variations. Results: Runtime plots of output revealed sinusoidal, seasonal variations that were consistent across all units, irrespective of manufacturer, model or age of machine. The average amplitude of the variation was on the order of 1%. Peak and minimum variations were found to correspond to early April and September, respectively. Approximately 48% of output adjustments made over the period examined were potentially avoidable if baseline levels had corresponded to the mean output, rather than to points near a peak or valley. Linear trends were observed for three of the fifteen units, with annual increases in output ranging from 2–3%. Conclusion: Characterization of cyclical seasonal trends allows for better separation of potentially innate accelerator behaviour from other behaviours (e.g. linear trends) that may be better described as true out of control states (i.e. non-stochastic deviations from otherwise expected behavior) and could indicate service requirements. Results also pointed to an optimal setpoint for accelerators such that output of machines is maintained within set tolerances and interventions are required less frequently.« less

Glaucoma Progression Detection by Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Measurement Using Scanning Laser Polarimetry: Event and Trend Analysis

PubMed Central

Moon, Byung Gil; Cho, Jung Woo; Kang, Sung Yong; Yun, Sung-Cheol; Na, Jung Hwa; Lee, Youngrok; Kook, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the use of scanning laser polarimetry (SLP, GDx VCC) to measure the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness in order to evaluate the progression of glaucoma. Methods Test-retest measurement variability was determined in 47 glaucomatous eyes. One eye each from 152 glaucomatous patients with at least 4 years of follow-up was enrolled. Visual field (VF) loss progression was determined by both event analysis (EA, Humphrey guided progression analysis) and trend analysis (TA, linear regression analysis of the visual field index). SLP progression was defined as a reduction of RNFL exceeding the predetermined repeatability coefficient in three consecutive exams, as compared to the baseline measure (EA). The slope of RNFL thickness change over time was determined by linear regression analysis (TA). Results Twenty-two eyes (14.5%) progressed according to the VF EA, 16 (10.5%) by VF TA, 37 (24.3%) by SLP EA and 19 (12.5%) by SLP TA. Agreement between VF and SLP progression was poor in both EA and TA (VF EA vs. SLP EA, k = 0.110; VF TA vs. SLP TA, k = 0.129). The mean (±standard deviation) progression rate of RNFL thickness as measured by SLP TA did not significantly differ between VF EA progressors and non-progressors (-0.224 ± 0.148 µm/yr vs. -0.218 ± 0.151 µm/yr, p = 0.874). SLP TA and EA showed similar levels of sensitivity when VF progression was considered as the reference standard. Conclusions RNFL thickness as measurement by SLP was shown to be capable of detecting glaucoma progression. Both EA and TA of SLP showed poor agreement with VF outcomes in detecting glaucoma progression. PMID:22670073

Glaucoma progression detection by retinal nerve fiber layer measurement using scanning laser polarimetry: event and trend analysis.

PubMed

Moon, Byung Gil; Sung, Kyung Rim; Cho, Jung Woo; Kang, Sung Yong; Yun, Sung-Cheol; Na, Jung Hwa; Lee, Youngrok; Kook, Michael S

2012-06-01

To evaluate the use of scanning laser polarimetry (SLP, GDx VCC) to measure the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness in order to evaluate the progression of glaucoma. Test-retest measurement variability was determined in 47 glaucomatous eyes. One eye each from 152 glaucomatous patients with at least 4 years of follow-up was enrolled. Visual field (VF) loss progression was determined by both event analysis (EA, Humphrey guided progression analysis) and trend analysis (TA, linear regression analysis of the visual field index). SLP progression was defined as a reduction of RNFL exceeding the predetermined repeatability coefficient in three consecutive exams, as compared to the baseline measure (EA). The slope of RNFL thickness change over time was determined by linear regression analysis (TA). Twenty-two eyes (14.5%) progressed according to the VF EA, 16 (10.5%) by VF TA, 37 (24.3%) by SLP EA and 19 (12.5%) by SLP TA. Agreement between VF and SLP progression was poor in both EA and TA (VF EA vs. SLP EA, k = 0.110; VF TA vs. SLP TA, k = 0.129). The mean (±standard deviation) progression rate of RNFL thickness as measured by SLP TA did not significantly differ between VF EA progressors and non-progressors (-0.224 ± 0.148 µm/yr vs. -0.218 ± 0.151 µm/yr, p = 0.874). SLP TA and EA showed similar levels of sensitivity when VF progression was considered as the reference standard. RNFL thickness as measurement by SLP was shown to be capable of detecting glaucoma progression. Both EA and TA of SLP showed poor agreement with VF outcomes in detecting glaucoma progression.

Trends in prescriptions and costs of drugs for mental disorders in England, 1998-2010.

PubMed

Ilyas, Stephen; Moncrieff, Joanna

2012-05-01

Increasing rates of prescriptions for antidepressants, antipsychotics and stimulants have been reported from various countries. To examine trends in prescriptions and the costs of all classes of psychiatric medication in England. Data from the Prescription Cost Analysis 1998-2010 was examined, using linear regression analysis to examine trends. Prescriptions of drugs used for mental disorders increased by 6.8% (95% CI 6.3-7.4) per year on average, in line with other drugs, but made up an increasing proportion of all prescription drug costs (P = 0.001). There were rising trends in prescriptions of all classes of psychiatric drugs, except anxiolytics and hypnotics (which did not change). Antidepressant prescriptions increased by 10% (95% CI 9.0-11) per year on average, and antipsychotics by 5.1% (95% CI 4.3-5.9). Antipsychotics overtook antidepressants as the most costly class of psychiatric medication, with costs rising 22% (95% CI 17-27) per year. Rising prescriptions may be partly explained by longer-term treatment and increasing population. Nevertheless, it appears that psychiatric drugs make an increasing contribution to total prescription drug costs, with antipsychotics becoming the most costly. Low-dose prescribing of some antipsychotics is consistent with other evidence that their use may not be restricted to those with severe mental illness.

Forecast and analysis of the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy consumption for global energy internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Zhong, Ming; Cheng, Ling; Jin, Lu; Shen, Si

2018-02-01

In the background of building global energy internet, it has both theoretical and realistic significance for forecasting and analysing the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy consumption. This paper firstly analysed the influencing factors of the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy and then used combination method to forecast and analyse the global proportion of electric energy. And then, construct the cointegration model for the proportion of electric energy by using influence factor such as electricity price index, GDP, economic structure, energy use efficiency and total population level. At last, this paper got prediction map of the proportion of electric energy by using the combination-forecasting model based on multiple linear regression method, trend analysis method, and variance-covariance method. This map describes the development trend of the proportion of electric energy in 2017-2050 and the proportion of electric energy in 2050 was analysed in detail using scenario analysis.

A Data Matrix Method for Improving the Quantification of Element Percentages of SEM/EDX Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lane, John

2009-01-01

A simple 2D M N matrix involving sample preparation enables the microanalyst to peer below the noise floor of element percentages reported by the SEM/EDX (scanning electron microscopy/ energy dispersive x-ray) analysis, thus yielding more meaningful data. Using the example of a 2 3 sample set, there are M = 2 concentration levels of the original mix under test: 10 percent ilmenite (90 percent silica) and 20 percent ilmenite (80 percent silica). For each of these M samples, N = 3 separate SEM/EDX samples were drawn. In this test, ilmenite is the element of interest. By plotting the linear trend of the M sample s known concentration versus the average of the N samples, a much higher resolution of elemental analysis can be performed. The resulting trend also shows how the noise is affecting the data, and at what point (of smaller concentrations) is it impractical to try to extract any further useful data.

Ontogenetic patterns in the dreams of women across the lifespan.

PubMed

Dale, Allyson; Lortie-Lussier, Monique; De Koninck, Joseph

2015-12-01

The present study supports and extends previous research on the developmental differences in women's dreams across the lifespan. The participants included 75 Canadian women in each of 5 age groups from adolescence to old age including 12-17, 18-24, 25-39, 40-64, and 65-85, totaling 375 women. One dream per participant was scored by two independent judges using the method of content analysis. Trend analysis was used to determine the ontogenetic pattern of the dream content categories. Results demonstrated significant ontogenetic decreases (linear trends) for female and familiar characters, activities, aggression, and friendliness. These patterns of dream imagery reflect the waking developmental patterns as proposed by social theories and recognized features of aging as postulated by the continuity hypothesis. Limitations and suggestions for future research including the examining of developmental patterns in the dreams of males are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Visual associations cued recall A Paradigm for Measuring Episodic Memory Decline in Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Meyer, Sascha R A; Spaan, Pauline E J; Boelaarts, Leo; Ponds, Rudolf W H M; Schmand, Ben; de Jonghe, Jos F M

2016-09-01

Repeated measurements of episodic memory are needed for monitoring amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) and mild Alzheimer's disease (AD). Most episodic memory tests may pose a challenge to patients, even when they are in the milder stages of the disease. This cross-sectional study compared floor effects of the Visual Association Test (VAT) and the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT) in healthy elderly controls and in patients with aMCI or AD (N = 125). A hierarchical multiple regression analysis was used to examine whether linear or quadratic trends best fitted the data of cognitive test performance across global cognitive impairment. Results showed that VAT total scores decreased linearly across the range of global cognitive impairment, whereas RAVLT total scores showed a quadratic trend, with total scores levelling off for 90% of aMCI patients and 94% of AD patients. We conclude that the VAT shows few if any floor effects in patients with aMCI and mild AD and is therefore a potentially promising cognitive test for monitoring episodic memory impairment.

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

Accounting for variation in designing greenhouse experiments with special reference to greenhouses containing plants on conveyor systems

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There are a number of unresolved issues in the design of experiments in greenhouses. They include whether statistical designs should be used and, if so, which designs should be used. Also, are there thigmomorphogenic or other effects arising from the movement of plants on conveyor belts within a greenhouse? A two-phase, single-line wheat experiment involving four tactics was conducted in a conventional greenhouse and a fully-automated phenotyping greenhouse (Smarthouse) to investigate these issues. Results and discussion Analyses of our experiment show that there was a small east–west trend in total area of the plants in the Smarthouse. Analyses of the data from three multiline experiments reveal a large north–south trend. In the single-line experiment, there was no evidence of differences between trios of lanes, nor of movement effects. Swapping plant positions during the trial was found to decrease the east–west trend, but at the cost of increased error variance. The movement of plants in a north–south direction, through a shaded area for an equal amount of time, nullified the north–south trend. An investigation of alternative experimental designs for equally-replicated experiments revealed that generally designs with smaller blocks performed best, but that (nearly) trend-free designs can be effective when blocks are larger. Conclusions To account for variation in microclimate in a greenhouse, using statistical design and analysis is better than rearranging the position of plants during the experiment. For the relocation of plants to be successful requires that plants spend an equal amount of time in each microclimate, preferably during comparable growth stages. Even then, there is no evidence that this will be any more precise than statistical design and analysis of the experiment, and the risk is that it will not be successful at all. As for statistical design and analysis, it is best to use either (i) smaller blocks, (ii) (nearly) trend-free arrangement of treatments with a linear trend term included in the analysis, or, as a last resort, (iii) blocks of several complete rows with trend terms in the analysis. Also, we recommend that the greenhouse arrangement parallel that in the Smarthouse, but with randomization where appropriate. PMID:23391282

Dietary and Plasma Magnesium and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease Among Women

PubMed Central

Chiuve, Stephanie E.; Sun, Qi; Curhan, Gary C.; Taylor, Eric N.; Spiegelman, Donna; Willett, Walter C.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Rexrode, Kathryn M.; Albert, Christine M.

2013-01-01

Background Magnesium is associated with lower risk of sudden cardiac death, possibly through antiarrhythmic mechanisms. Magnesium influences endothelial function, inflammation, blood pressure, and diabetes, but a direct relation with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk has not been established. Methods and Results We prospectively examined the association between dietary and plasma magnesium and risk of CHD among women in the Nurses' Health Study. The association for magnesium intake was examined among 86 323 women free of disease in 1980. Information on magnesium intake and lifestyle factors was ascertained every 2 to 4 years through questionnaires. Through 2008, 3614 cases of CHD (2511 nonfatal/1103 fatal) were documented. For plasma magnesium, we conducted a nested case–control analysis, with 458 cases of incident CHD (400 nonfatal/58 fatal) matched to controls (1:1) on age, smoking, fasting status, and date of blood sampling. Higher magnesium intake was not associated with lower risk of total CHD (P‐linear trend=0.12) or nonfatal CHD (P‐linear trend=0.88) in multivariable models. However, magnesium intake was inversely associated with risk of fatal CHD. The RR comparing quintile 5 to quintile 1 of magnesium intake was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.84; P‐linear trend=0.003). The association between magnesium intake and risk of fatal CHD appeared to be mediated partially by hypertension. Plasma magnesium levels above 2.0 mg/dL were associated with lower risk of CHD, although not independent of other cardiovascular biomarkers (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.44 to 1.04). Conclusions Dietary and plasma magnesium were not associated with total CHD incidence in this population of women. Dietary magnesium intake was inversely associated with fatal CHD, which may be mediated in part by hypertension. PMID:23537810

Economic preferences and fast food consumption in US adults: Insights from behavioral economics.

PubMed

Shuval, Kerem; Stoklosa, Michal; Pachucki, Mark C; Yaroch, Amy L; Drope, Jeffrey; Harding, Matthew

2016-12-01

To examine the relationship between economic time preferences and frequency of fast food and full-service restaurant consumption among U.S. adults. Participants included 5871U.S. adults who responded to a survey conducted in 2011 pertaining to the lifestyle behaviors of families and the social context of these behaviors. The primary independent variable was a measure of time preferences, an intertemporal choice assessing delay discounting. This was elicited via responses to preferences for an immediate dollar amount or a larger sum in 30 (30-day time horizon) or 60days (60-day time horizon). Outcomes were the frequency of fast food and full-service restaurant consumption. Ordered logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between time preferences and food consumption while adjusting for covariates (e.g. socio-demographics). Multivariable analysis revealed that higher future time preferences were significantly related to less frequent fast food intake for both the 30- and 60-day time horizon variables (P for linear trend <0.05; both). Notably, participants with the highest future time preference were significantly less likely to consume fast food than those with very low future time preferences (30-day: OR=0.74, 95%CI: 0.62-0.89; and 60-day: OR=0.86, 95%CI: 0.74-1.00). In comparison, higher future time preferences were not significantly associated with full-service restaurant intake (30-day: p for linear trend=0.73; 60-day: p for linear trend=0.83). Higher future time preferences were related to a lower frequency of fast food consumption. Utilizing concepts from behavioral economics (e.g. pre-commitment contracts) to facilitate more healthful eating is warranted using experimental studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metabolites as novel biomarkers for childhood obesity-related traits in Mexican-American children.

PubMed

Farook, V S; Reddivari, L; Chittoor, G; Puppala, S; Arya, R; Fowler, S P; Hunt, K J; Curran, J E; Comuzzie, A G; Lehman, D M; Jenkinson, C P; Lynch, J L; DeFronzo, R A; Blangero, J; Hale, D E; Duggirala, R; Vanamala, J

2015-08-01

Although newer approaches have identified several metabolites associated with obesity, there is paucity of such information in paediatric populations, especially among Mexican-Americans (MAs) who are at high risk of obesity. Therefore, we performed a global serum metabolite screening in MA children to identify biomarkers of childhood obesity. We selected 15 normal-weight, 13 overweight and 14 obese MA children (6-17 years) and performed global serum metabolite screening using ultra-performance liquid chromatography/quadruple orthogonal acceleration time of flight tandem micro mass spectrometer. Metabolite values were analysed to assess mean differences among groups using one-way analysis of variance, to test for linear trend across groups and to examine Pearson's correlations between them and seven cardiometabolic traits (CMTs): body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model of assessment-insulin resistance, triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. We identified 14 metabolites exhibiting differences between groups as well as linear trend across groups with nominal statistical significance. After adjustment for multiple testing, mean differences and linear trends across groups remained significant (P < 5.9 × 10(-5) ) for L-thyronine, bradykinin and naringenin. Of the examined metabolite-CMT trait pairs, all metabolites except for 2-methylbutyroylcarnitine were nominally associated with two or more CMTs, some exhibiting significance even after accounting for multiple testing (P < 3.6 × 10(-3) ). To our knowledge, this study - albeit pilot in nature - is the first study to identify these metabolites as novel biomarkers of childhood obesity and its correlates. These findings signify the need for future systematic investigations of metabolic pathways underlying childhood obesity. © 2014 World Obesity.

Statistical Analysis of Terrestrial Water Storage Change Over Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eibedingil, I. G.; Mubako, S. T.; Hargrove, W. L.; Espino, A. C.

2017-12-01

A warming trend over recent decades has aggravated water resource challenges in the arid southwestern region of the United States (U.S.). An increase in temperature, coupled with decreasing snowpack and rainfall have impacted the region's cities, ecosystems, and agriculture. The region is the largest contributor of agricultural products to the U.S. market resulting from irrigation. Water use through irrigation is stressing already limited terrestrial water resources. Population growth in recent decades has also led to increased water demand. This study utilizes products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites experiment in MATLAB and ArcGIS to examine terrestrial water storage changes in the southwestern region of the U.S., comprised of the eight states of Texas, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Linear trend analysis was applied to the equivalent water-height data of terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC), precipitation, and air temperature. Correlation analysis was performed on couplings of TWSC - precipitation and TWSC - air temperature to examine the impact of temperature and precipitation on the region's water resources. Our preliminary results show a decreasing trend of TWSC from April 2002 to July 2016 in almost all parts of the region. Precipitation shows a decreasing trend from March 2000 to March 2017 for most of the region, except for sparse areas of increased precipitation near the northwestern coast of California, and a belt running from Oklahoma through the middle of Texas to the El Paso/New Mexico border. From April 2002 to December 2014, air temperature exhibited a negative trend for most of the region, except a larger part of California and a small location in central Texas. Correlation between TWSC and precipitation was mostly positive, but a negative trend was observed when TWSC and air temperature were correlated. The study contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water storage trends and their relationship with climatic variables, crucial for implementing appropriate adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies, and managing water demand.

Changes in time-trends of nutrient intake from fortified and non-fortified food in German children and adolescents--15 year results of the DONALD study. Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study.

PubMed

Sichert-Hellert, W; Kersting, M; Manz, F

2001-04-01

Although fortified products have played an increasing role in food marketing since the 1980s in Germany, data as to the consumption of fortified food is sparse. To assess long-term data on changes in fortified food supply or consumption patterns, nutrient intake, and time trends in the DONALD Study (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study). Between 1985 and 2000 consumption of nutrient intake (total and from fortified foods) was evaluated and time trends in energy and nutrient intake were assessed on the basis of 3-day weighed dietary records (n = 4193) of 2-14 year-old males (n = 383) and females (n = 404) enrolled in the DONALD Study. Nutrient intake was expressed as percentage of the current German recommendations. Food products were defined as fortified if enriched with at least one of the following nutrients: Vitamin A or provitamin A carotenoids (summarised as Vitamin A), Vitamins E, B1, B2, B6, C, niacin, folate, calcium or iron. Nutrient supplements and medicine were excluded from this evaluation. Time trends were analysed using linear and non-linear regression models (PROC MIXED, SAS 6.12). In percent of German references [3], non-fortified food contributed to folate intake by 20-30%, to Vitamin E by about 40%, to Vitamin B1 by 50-65%, to Vitamin A, C, B2, calcium, iron by about 65-95%, and to Vitamin B6 and niacin intake by 100% and more. Fortified food alone provided no more than 5% of calcium intake, about 10-20% of iron, Vitamin A and folate intake, up to 40-50% of Vitamin C, B1, B2, E, niacin and up to 80% of Vitamin B6 intake. During the 15 year period of the DONALD Study with total food, we only found a significant linear time trend for Vitamin C, whereas significant non-linear time trends were found for calcium, Vitamin E, B1, B2, B6, niacin and folate. In the latter there was a uniform increase until 1994 and a decrease thereafter. For iron and Vitamin A no significant time trend could be identified. Only iron and Vitamin A intake from fortified food showed a significant linear time trend. All other nutrients studied here gave significant non-linear time trends. Nutrient intake with fortified food reached maximum values between 1994 and 1996 followed by a decrease thereafter. Signs of changing food consumption patterns were found, pointing to an almost uniform decrease of nutrient intake since 1994/96 in our population of German children and adolescents. This could be an alarming indicator of a slight but unpreferable tendency to eat energydense, nutrient-poor foods.

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model. Revision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Considine, D. B.; Stolarski, R. S.; Hollandsworth, S. M.; Jackman, C. H.; Fleming, E. L.

1998-01-01

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Associations between dietary intake of choline and betaine and lung cancer risk.

PubMed

Ying, Jun; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Hallman, D Michael; Hernandez, Ladia M; Spitz, Margret R; Forman, Michele R; Gorlova, Olga Y

2013-01-01

Evidence from human and animal research indicates that choline metabolic pathways may be activated during a variety of diseases, including cancer. We report results of a case-control study of 2821 lung cancer cases and 2923 controls that assessed associations of choline and betaine dietary intakes with lung cancer. Using multivariable logistic regression analyses, we report a significant association between higher betaine intake and lower lung cancer risk that varied by smoking status. Specifically, no significant association was observed between betaine intake and lung cancer among never-smokers. However, higher betaine intake was significantly associated with reduced lung cancer risk among smokers, and the protective effect was more evident among current than former smokers: for former and current smokers, the ORs (95% CI) of lung cancer for individuals with highest as compared to lowest quartiles of intake were 0.70(0.55-0.88) and 0.51(0.39-0.66) respectively. Significant linear trend of higher betaine intake and lower lung cancer risk was observed among both former (p(trend) = 0.002) and current (p(trend)<0.0001) smokers. A similar protective effect was also observed with choline intake both in overall analysis as well as among current smokers, with p-values for chi-square tests being 0.001 and 0.004 respectively, but the effect was less evident, as no linear trend was observed. Our results suggest that choline and betaine intake, especially higher betaine intake, may be protective against lung cancer through mitigating the adverse effect of smoking.

Factors Associated With Health Care Utilization of Recurrent Clostridium difficile Infection in New York State.

PubMed

Mathews, Steven N; Lamm, Ryan; Yang, Jie; Park, Jihye; Tzimas, Demetrios; Buscaglia, Jonathan M; Pryor, Aurora; Talamini, Mark; Telem, Dana; Bucobo, Juan C

2018-03-21

The incidence of infection due to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and subsequent economic burden are substantial. The impact of changing practice patterns on demographics at risk and utilization of health care resources for recurrence of CDI remains unclear. A total of 291,163 patients hospitalized for CDI were identified from 1995 to 2014 from the New York SPARCS database. The χ test, the Welch t test, and multivariable logistic regression analysis were performed to evaluate factors related to readmission. Hospital admissions and readmissions for CDI peaked in 2008 at 20,487 and 13,795, respectively, and have since decreased (linear trend, 0.9706 and 0.9464, respectively; P<0.0001). In total, 60,077 (21%) patients required ≥2 admissions. Risk factors for readmission included: age 55 to 74, government insurance, hypertension, diabetes, anemia, hypothyroidism, chronic pulmonary disease, rheumatoid arthritis, renal failure, peripheral vascular disease, and depression (all P<0.05). Trends in surgery showed a similar peak in 2008 at 165 and have since decreased (linear trend, 0.8660; P<0.0001). A total of 1830 (0.63%) patients with CDI underwent surgery, with emergent being more common than elective (71% vs. 29%). Hospital admissions and readmissions for CDI peaked in 2008 and have since been steadily declining. These trends may be secondary to improved diagnostic capabilities and evolving antibiotic regimens. More than 1 in 5 hospitalized patients had at least 1 readmission. Numerous risk factors for these patients have been identified. Although <1% of all patients with CDI undergo surgery, these rates have also been declining.

Frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between second-hand smoke exposure and menopausal symptoms among middle-aged women in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Ye, X; Yao, Z; Xu, Y; Zhou, S; Gao, Y; Chen, S; Yang, Y

2015-04-01

Tobacco smoking and menopausal symptoms are strongly associated, but the possible effects of second-hand smoke (SHS) have not been evaluated. This study aimed to explore the possible frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between SHS exposure and menopausal symptoms among non-smoking, middle-aged women. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Guangzhou, China using a stratified three-stage sampling method. Menopausal symptoms were measured by the modified Kupperman Index with a cut-off point of 7. The frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between SHS exposure and menopausal symptoms were examined using logistic regression models. Compared with non-exposure, SHS exposure was associated with increased menopausal symptoms (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-2.33 for exposure in any of the venues). The trend analysis showed that there were frequency-risk (OR = 1.43 for occasional exposure; OR = 2.30 for regular exposure; p for linear trend < 0.001) and duration-risk (OR = 1.09 for 1-15 years; OR = 1.99 for > 15 years; p for linear trend < 0.001) relations. When examining the frequency-risk and duration-risk relations by source of exposure (in homes or in workplaces), there was still evidence of increasing trend for risk of menopausal symptoms. Findings from the present study suggest that SHS exposure is positively associated with menopausal symptoms in middle-aged women in a dose-response manner and highlight the need for further research to establish the mechanisms of the association.

Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, J.S.; Gould, W.R.; Hoover, B.A.; Fuller, M.R.; Lindquist, E.L.

1996-01-01

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Numerical calculations of spectral turnover and synchrotron self-absorption in CSS and GPS radio sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyakumar, S.

2016-06-01

The dependence of the turnover frequency on the linear size is presented for a sample of Giga-hertz Peaked Spectrum and Compact Steep Spectrum radio sources derived from complete samples. The dependence of the luminosity of the emission at the peak frequency with the linear size and the peak frequency is also presented for the galaxies in the sample. The luminosity of the smaller sources evolve strongly with the linear size. Optical depth effects have been included to the 3D model for the radio source of Kaiser to study the spectral turnover. Using this model, the observed trend can be explained by synchrotron self-absorption. The observed trend in the peak-frequency-linear-size plane is not affected by the luminosity evolution of the sources.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976–88

PubMed Central

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-01-01

Background Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Methods A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. Results An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16–18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3–6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2–10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6–15.1)] mortality. Conclusions The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality. PMID:19188208

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976-88.

PubMed

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-02-01

Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16-18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3-6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2-10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6-15.1)] mortality. The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality.

Spatiotemporal analysis of brucellosis incidence in Iran from 2011 to 2014 using GIS.

PubMed

Pakzad, Reza; Pakzad, Iraj; Safiri, Saeid; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza; Mohammadpour, Marzieh; Behroozi, Abbas; Sullman, Mark J M; Janati, Ali

2018-02-01

To investigate the distribution and trends associated with brucellosis incidence rates in Iran from 2011 to 2014. The reported incidence rates of brucellosis for the years 2011-2014 were collected and entered into GIS 10.1. The Cochran-Armitage test for linear trends, choropleth maps, hot-spot analysis, and high-low clustering analysis were used to investigate patterns of the disease over the study period and by season, and to identify high-risk areas and any clustering of the disease. The significance level was set at p<0.05. A total of 68493 cases of brucellosis were reported during the study period, giving an average brucellosis incidence rate for this period of 38.67/100000. In 2011, the highest rate of brucellosis was observed in Koohrang County of Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari Province, with 317/100 000. In the subsequent years, 2012-2014, Charuymaq County of East-Azerbaijan Province had incidence rates of 384, 534, and 583/100000, respectively. However, the incidence rate of the disease did not follow a linear trend (p<0.001). The maximum and minimum incidence rates of the disease occurred in mid-summer and mid-winter, respectively. The results of the hot-spot analysis showed that the distribution of the disease was highest in the mountainous areas of Iran, particularly along the Zagros mountain range and in most cities near the Zagros Mountains (p<0.01). In addition, the cluster analysis showed a clustering pattern in these high incidence areas (p<0.01). There were significant differences in the geographic distribution of brucellosis, with the incidence rates being highest in most of the cities in the west and north-west of the country. The incidence of this disease also increased during the summer. It is important to take these patterns into account when allocating resources to combat this disease and to ensure that health programs and other interventions focus on the areas of greatest need. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Extreme value statistics analysis of fracture strengths of a sintered silicon nitride failing from pores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Luen-Yuan; Shetty, Dinesh K.

1992-01-01

Statistical analysis and correlation between pore-size distribution and fracture strength distribution using the theory of extreme-value statistics is presented for a sintered silicon nitride. The pore-size distribution on a polished surface of this material was characterized, using an automatic optical image analyzer. The distribution measured on the two-dimensional plane surface was transformed to a population (volume) distribution, using the Schwartz-Saltykov diameter method. The population pore-size distribution and the distribution of the pore size at the fracture origin were correllated by extreme-value statistics. Fracture strength distribution was then predicted from the extreme-value pore-size distribution, usin a linear elastic fracture mechanics model of annular crack around pore and the fracture toughness of the ceramic. The predicted strength distribution was in good agreement with strength measurements in bending. In particular, the extreme-value statistics analysis explained the nonlinear trend in the linearized Weibull plot of measured strengths without postulating a lower-bound strength.

Seasonality, interannual variability, and linear tendency of wind speeds in the northeast Brazil from 1986 to 2011.

PubMed

Torres Silva dos Santos, Alexandre; Moisés Santos e Silva, Cláudio

2013-01-01

Wind speed analyses are currently being employed in several fields, especially in wind power generation. In this study, we used wind speed data from records of Universal Fuess anemographs at an altitude of 10 m from 47 weather stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia-INMET) from January 1986 to December 2011. The objective of the study was to investigate climatological aspects and wind speed trends. To this end, the following methods were used: filling of missing data, descriptive statistical calculations, boxplots, cluster analysis, and trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall statistical method. The seasonal variability of the average wind speeds of each group presented higher values for winter and spring and lower values in the summer and fall. The groups G1, G2, and G5 showed higher annual averages in the interannual variability of wind speeds. These observed peaks were attributed to the El Niño and La Niña events, which change the behavior of global wind circulation and influence wind speeds over the region. Trend analysis showed more significant negative values for the G3, G4, and G5 groups for all seasons of the year and in the annual average for the period under study.

Seasonality, Interannual Variability, and Linear Tendency of Wind Speeds in the Northeast Brazil from 1986 to 2011

PubMed Central

Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés

2013-01-01

Wind speed analyses are currently being employed in several fields, especially in wind power generation. In this study, we used wind speed data from records of Universal Fuess anemographs at an altitude of 10 m from 47 weather stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia-INMET) from January 1986 to December 2011. The objective of the study was to investigate climatological aspects and wind speed trends. To this end, the following methods were used: filling of missing data, descriptive statistical calculations, boxplots, cluster analysis, and trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall statistical method. The seasonal variability of the average wind speeds of each group presented higher values for winter and spring and lower values in the summer and fall. The groups G1, G2, and G5 showed higher annual averages in the interannual variability of wind speeds. These observed peaks were attributed to the El Niño and La Niña events, which change the behavior of global wind circulation and influence wind speeds over the region. Trend analysis showed more significant negative values for the G3, G4, and G5 groups for all seasons of the year and in the annual average for the period under study. PMID:24250267

Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raggad, Bechir

2018-05-01

In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Jastram, John D.

2015-01-01

Monthly mean air temperature (AT) at 85 sites and instantaneous stream-water temperature (WT) at 129 sites for 1960–2010 are examined for the mid-Atlantic region, USA. Temperature anomalies for two periods, 1961–1985 and 1985–2010, relative to the climate normal period of 1971–2000, indicate that the latter period was statistically significantly warmer than the former for both mean AT and WT. Statistically significant temporal trends across the region of 0.023 °C per year for AT and 0.028 °C per year for WT are detected using simple linear regression. Sensitivity analyses show that the irregularly sampled WT data are appropriate for trend analyses, resulting in conservative estimates of trend magnitude. Relations between 190 landscape factors and significant trends in AT-WT relations are examined using principal components analysis. Measures of major dams and deciduous forest are correlated with WT increasing slower than AT, whereas agriculture in the absence of major dams is correlated with WT increasing faster than AT. Increasing WT trends are detected despite increasing trends in streamflow in the northern part of the study area. Continued warming of contributing streams to Chesapeake Bay likely will result in shifts in distributions of aquatic biota and contribute to worsened eutrophic conditions in the bay and its estuaries.

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Increased trend in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use by adults in the United States since 2007.

PubMed

Gerke, Alicia K; Tang, Fan; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Doerschug, Kevin C; Polgreen, Philip M

2015-11-18

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been increasingly studied as a life support modality, but it is unclear if its use has changed over time. Recent publication shows no significant trend in use of ECMO over time; however, this report does not include more recent data. We performed trend analysis to determine if and when the use of ECMO changed in the past decade. We identified hospitalizations (2000-2011) in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample during which ECMO was recorded. We used a segmented linear regression model to determine trend and to identify a temporal change point when rate of ECMO use increased. ECMO use gradually grew until 2007, at which time there was a dramatic increase in the rate (p = 0.0003). There was no difference in mortality after 2007 (p = 0.3374), but there was longer length of stay (p = 0.0001) and smaller percentage of women (p = 0.005). There has been a marked increase in ECMO use since 2007. As ECMO use becomes more common, further study regarding indications, cost-effectiveness, and outcomes is warranted to guide optimal use.

Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation net primary productivity in the arid region of Northwest China, 2001 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Pan, Jinghu

2018-03-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is recognized as an important index of ecosystem conditions and a key variable of the terrestrial carbon cycle. It also represents the comprehensive effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on terrestrial vegetation. In this study, the temporal-spatial pattern of NPP for the period 2001-2012 was analyzed using a remote sensing-based carbon model (i.e., the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach, CASA) in addition to other methods, such as linear trend analysis, standard deviation, and the Hurst index. Temporally, NPP showed a significant increasing trend for the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC), with an annual increase of 2.327 g C. Maximum and minimum productivity values appeared in July and December, respectively. Spatially, the NPP was relatively stable in the temperate and warm-temperate desert regions of Northwest China, while temporally, it showed an increasing trend. However, some attention should be given to the northwestern warm-temperate desert region, where there is severe continuous degradation and only a slight improvement trend.

Know your market: use of online query tools to quantify trends in patient information-seeking behavior for varicose vein treatment.

PubMed

Harsha, Asheesh K; Schmitt, J Eric; Stavropoulos, S William

2014-01-01

To analyze Internet search data to characterize the temporal and geographic interest of Internet users in the United States in varicose vein treatment. From January 1, 2004, to September 1, 2012, the Google Trends tool was used to analyze query data for "varicose vein treatment" to identify individuals seeking treatment information for varicose veins. The term "varicose vein treatment" returned a search volume index (SVI), representing the search frequency relative to the total search volume during a specific time interval and region. Linear regression analysis and Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance were employed to characterize search results. Search traffic for varicose vein treatment increased by 520% over the 104-month study period. There was an annual mean increase of 28% (range, -18%-100%; standard deviation [SD], 35%), with a statistically significant linear increase in average yearly SVI over time (R(2) = 0.94, P < .0001). All years showed positive growth in mean SVI except for 2008 (18% decrease). There were statistically significant differences in SVI by month (Kruskal-Wallis, P < .0001) with significantly higher mean SVI compared with other months in May (190% increase; range, 26%-670%; SD, 15%) and June (209% increase; range, 35%-700%; SD, 20%). The southern United States showed significantly higher search traffic than all other regions (Tukey-Kramer, P < .00001). There have been significant increases in Internet search traffic related to varicose vein treatment in the past 8 years. Reflected in this trend is an annual peak in search traffic in the late spring months with an overall geographic bias toward southern states. Rigorous analysis of Internet search queries for medical procedures may prove useful to guide the efficient use of limited resources and marketing dollars. © 2013 The Society of Interventional Radiology Published by SIR All rights reserved.

Regional Landslide Mapping Aided by Automated Classification of SqueeSAR™ Time Series (Northern Apennines, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iannacone, J.; Berti, M.; Allievi, J.; Del Conte, S.; Corsini, A.

2013-12-01

Space borne InSAR has proven to be very valuable for landslides detection. In particular, extremely slow landslides (Cruden and Varnes, 1996) can be now clearly identified, thanks to the millimetric precision reached by recent multi-interferometric algorithms. The typical approach in radar interpretation for landslides mapping is based on average annual velocity of the deformation which is calculated over the entire times series. The Hotspot and Cluster Analysis (Lu et al., 2012) and the PSI-based matrix approach (Cigna et al., 2013) are examples of landslides mapping techniques based on average annual velocities. However, slope movements can be affected by non-linear deformation trends, (i.e. reactivation of dormant landslides, deceleration due to natural or man-made slope stabilization, seasonal activity, etc). Therefore, analyzing deformation time series is crucial in order to fully characterize slope dynamics. While this is relatively simple to be carried out manually when dealing with small dataset, the time series analysis over regional scale dataset requires automated classification procedures. Berti et al. (2013) developed an automatic procedure for the analysis of InSAR time series based on a sequence of statistical tests. The analysis allows to classify the time series into six distinctive target trends (0=uncorrelated; 1=linear; 2=quadratic; 3=bilinear; 4=discontinuous without constant velocity; 5=discontinuous with change in velocity) which are likely to represent different slope processes. The analysis also provides a series of descriptive parameters which can be used to characterize the temporal changes of ground motion. All the classification algorithms were integrated into a Graphical User Interface called PSTime. We investigated an area of about 2000 km2 in the Northern Apennines of Italy by using SqueeSAR™ algorithm (Ferretti et al., 2011). Two Radarsat-1 data stack, comprising of 112 scenes in descending orbit and 124 scenes in ascending orbit, were processed. The time coverage lasts from April 2003 to November 2012, with an average temporal frequency of 1 scene/month. Radar interpretation has been carried out by considering average annual velocities as well as acceleration/deceleration trends evidenced by PSTime. Altogether, from ascending and descending geometries respectively, this approach allowed detecting of 115 and 112 potential landslides on the basis of average displacement rate and 77 and 79 landslides on the basis of acceleration trends. In conclusion, time series analysis resulted to be very valuable for landslide mapping. In particular it highlighted areas with marked acceleration in a specific period in time while still being affected by low average annual velocity over the entire analysis period. On the other hand, even in areas with high average annual velocity, time series analysis was of primary importance to characterize the slope dynamics in terms of acceleration events.

Internet search trends analysis tools can provide real-time data on kidney stone disease in the United States.

PubMed

Willard, Scott D; Nguyen, Mike M

2013-01-01

To evaluate the utility of using Internet search trends data to estimate kidney stone occurrence and understand the priorities of patients with kidney stones. Internet search trends data represent a unique resource for monitoring population self-reported illness and health information-seeking behavior. The Google Insights for Search analysis tool was used to study searches related to kidney stones, with each search term returning a search volume index (SVI) according to the search frequency relative to the total search volume. SVIs for the term, "kidney stones," were compiled by location and time parameters and compared with the published weather and stone prevalence data. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the association of the search interest score with known epidemiologic variations in kidney stone disease, including latitude, temperature, season, and state. The frequency of the related search terms was categorized by theme and qualitatively analyzed. The SVI correlated significantly with established kidney stone epidemiologic predictors. The SVI correlated with the state latitude (R-squared=0.25; P<.001), the state mean annual temperature (R-squared=0.24; P<.001), and state combined sex prevalence (R-squared=0.25; P<.001). Female prevalence correlated more strongly than did male prevalence (R-squared=0.37; P<.001, and R-squared=0.17; P=.003, respectively). The national SVI correlated strongly with the average U.S. temperature by month (R-squared=0.54; P=.007). The search term ranking suggested that Internet users are most interested in the diagnosis, followed by etiology, infections, and treatment. Geographic and temporal variability in kidney stone disease appear to be accurately reflected in Internet search trends data. Internet search trends data might have broader applications for epidemiologic and urologic research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relative trending accuracy of noninvasive continuous hemoglobin monitoring during hemodialysis in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Yamada, Hiroshi; Saeki, Minako; Ito, Junko; Kawada, Kazuhiro; Higurashi, Aya; Funakoshi, Hiromi; Takeda, Kohji

2015-02-01

The pulse CO-Oximeter (Radical-7; Masimo Corp., Irvine, CA) is a multi-wavelength spectrophotometric method for noninvasive continuous monitoring of hemoglobin (SpHb). Because evaluating the relative change in blood volume (ΔBV) is crucial to avoid hypovolemia and hypotension during hemodialysis, it would be of great clinical benefit if ΔBV could be estimated by measurement of SpHb during hemodialysis. The capability of the pulse CO-Oximeter to monitor ΔBV depends on the relative trending accuracy of SpHb. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the relative trending accuracy of SpHb by the pulse CO-Oximeter using Crit-Line as a reference device. In 12 patients who received hemodialysis (total 22 sessions) in the intensive care unit, ΔBV was determined from SpHb. Relative changes in blood volume determined from SpHb were calculated according to the equation: ΔBV(SpHb)=[starting SpHb]/[current SpHb] - 1. The absolute values of SpHb and hematocrit measured by Crit-Line (CL-Hct) showed poor correlation. On the contrary, linear regression analysis showed good correlation between ΔBV(SpHb) and the relative change in blood volume measured by Crit-Line [ΔBV(CL-Hct)] (r=0.83; P≤0.001). Bland-Altman analysis also revealed good agreement between ΔBV(SpHb) and ΔBV(CL-Hct) (bias, -0.77%; precision, 3.41%). Polar plot analysis revealed good relative trending accuracy of SpHb with an angular bias of 4.1° and radial limits of agreement of 24.4° (upper) and -16.2° (lower). The results of the current study indicate that SpHb measurement with the pulse CO-Oximeter has good relative trending accuracy.

Fifteen-year trends in the prevalence of barriers to healthy eating in a high-income country.

PubMed

de Mestral, Carlos; Khalatbari-Soltani, Saman; Stringhini, Silvia; Marques-Vidal, Pedro

2017-03-01

Background: Despite increasing levels of education and income in the Swiss population over time and greater food diversity due to globalization, adherence to dietary guidelines has remained persistently low. This may be because of barriers to healthy eating hampering adherence, but whether these barriers have evolved in prevalence over time has never been assessed, to our knowledge. Objective: We assessed 15-y trends in the prevalence of self-reported barriers to healthy eating in Switzerland overall and according to sex, age, education, and income. Design: We used data from 4 national Swiss Health Surveys conducted between 1997 and 2012 (52,238 participants aged ≥18 y, 55% women), applying multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models to assess trends in prevalence of 6 barriers to healthy eating (taste, price, daily habits, time, lack of willpower, and limited options). Results: The prevalence of 3 barriers exhibited an increasing trend until 2007, followed by a decrease in 2012 (from 44% in 1997 to 50% in 2007 and then to 44% in 2012 for taste, from 40% to 52% and then to 39% for price, and from 29% to 34% and then to 32% for time; quadratic P -trend < 0.0001). Limited options decreased slightly until 2007 (35-33%) and then sharply by 2012 (18%) (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Daily habits remained relatively stable across time from 42% in 1997 to 38% in 2012 (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Conversely, lack of willpower decreased steadily over time from 26% in 1997 to 21% in 2012 (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Trends were similar for all barriers irrespective of sex, age, education, and income. Conclusion: Between 1997 and 2012, barriers to healthy eating remained highly prevalent (≥20%) in the Swiss population and evolved similarly irrespective of age, sex, education, and income. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Trends in Daily Cannabis Use Among Cigarette Smokers: United States, 2002-2014.

PubMed

Goodwin, Renee D; Pacek, Lauren R; Copeland, Jan; Moeller, Scott J; Dierker, Lisa; Weinberger, Andrea; Gbedemah, Misato; Zvolensky, Michael J; Wall, Melanie M; Hasin, Deborah S

2018-01-01

To estimate changes in the prevalence of daily cannabis use among current, former, and never cigarette smokers from 2002 to 2014 in the United States. The National Survey on Drug Use and Health is a nationally representative cross-sectional study conducted annually among persons aged 12 years and older in the United States. Daily cannabis use occurs nearly exclusively among nondaily and daily cigarette smokers compared with former and never smokers (8.03%, 9.01%, 2.79%, 1.05%, respectively). Daily cannabis use increased over the past decade among both nondaily (8.03% [2014] vs 2.85% [2002]; linear trend P < .001) and daily smokers (9.01% [2014]; 4.92% [2002]; linear trend P < .001). Daily cannabis use increased most rapidly among former cigarette smokers (2.79% [2014] vs 0.98% [2002]; linear trend P < .001). Daily cannabis use occurs predominantly among cigarette smokers in the United States. Daily cannabis use increased among current, former, and never smokers over the past decade, with particularly rapid increases among youth and female cigarette smokers. Future research is needed to monitor the observed increase in daily cannabis use, especially among youths and adults who smoke cigarettes.

A Comprehensive Fifty-One Jurisdiction Review of Statutes Mandating and Encouraging the Teaching of History in K-12 Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutting, A. Edward

2012-01-01

This is a linear review of the education statutes of each state for the purpose of identifying those statutes which require the state's history to be taught in its K-12 schools, with further analysis for trends and outliers. The intent is to first serve as a benchmark as to where both each state and the nation as a whole is at this point in time.…

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Changing Trends in the Clinical Presentation and Management of Complete Hydatidiform Mole Among Brazilian Women.

PubMed

Braga, Antonio; Moraes, Valéria; Maestá, Izildinha; Amim Júnior, Joffre; Rezende-Filho, Jorge de; Elias, Kevin; Berkowitz, Ross

2016-06-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate potential changes in the clinical, diagnostic, and therapeutic parameters of complete hydatidiform mole in the last 25 years in Brazil. A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving the analysis of 2163 medical records of patients diagnosed with complete hydatidiform mole who received treatment at the Rio de Janeiro Reference Center for Gestational Trophoblastic Disease between January 1988 and December 2012. For the statistical analysis of the natural history of the patients with complete molar pregnancies, time series were evaluated using the Cox-Stuart test and adjusted by linear regression models. A downward linear temporal trend was observed for gestational age of complete hydatidiform mole at diagnosis, which is also reflected in the reduced occurrence of vaginal bleeding, hyperemesis and pre-eclampsia. We also observed an increase in the use of uterine vacuum aspiration to treat molar pregnancy. Although the duration of postmolar follow-up was found to decline, this was not accompanied by any alteration in the time to remission of the disease or its progression to gestational trophoblastic neoplasia. Early diagnosis of complete hydatidiform mole has altered the natural history of molar pregnancy, especially with a reduction in classical clinical symptoms. However, early diagnosis has not resulted in a reduction in the development of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia, a dilemma that still challenges professionals working with gestational trophoblastic disease.

Latitudinal dependence of variations in stratospheric NO2 content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2008-06-01

Diurnal and annual variations in the NO2 total content (TC), the effect of its decrease owing to the products of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, its variations during an 11-year cycle of solar activity, and its linear trends are analyzed on the basis of data obtained from the ground-based spectrometric measurements of the NO2 TC in stratospheric vertical columns over the stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change. Latitudinal dependence of the indicated variations and trends is revealed. The annual estimates of the linear trends of the NO2 TC are found to be mostly positive for the middle and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere and negative for the middle and low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum values of the positive and negative trends amount to ˜10% per ten years. In the high and polar latitudes of both hemispheres, the annual trend estimates are statistically insignificant. Seasonal estimates of the trends may differ from their annual estimates. The trends and solar-activity effect in the NO2 TC, which were estimated by using the two-dimensional model SOCRATES, as well as the analytical estimates of a zonal mean trend of the NO2 TC, on the whole, significantly differ from the estimates obtained from the measurements.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Scanning electron microscopy combined with image processing technique: Analysis of microstructure, texture and tenderness in Semitendinous and Gluteus Medius bovine muscles.

PubMed

Pieniazek, Facundo; Messina, Valeria

2016-11-01

In this study the effect of freeze drying on the microstructure, texture, and tenderness of Semitendinous and Gluteus Medius bovine muscles were analyzed applying Scanning Electron Microscopy combined with image analysis. Samples were analyzed by Scanning Electron Microscopy at different magnifications (250, 500, and 1,000×). Texture parameters were analyzed by Texture analyzer and by image analysis. Tenderness by Warner-Bratzler shear force. Significant differences (p < 0.05) were obtained for image and instrumental texture features. A linear trend with a linear correlation was applied for instrumental and image features. Image texture features calculated from Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (homogeneity, contrast, entropy, correlation and energy) at 1,000× in both muscles had high correlations with instrumental features (chewiness, hardness, cohesiveness, and springiness). Tenderness showed a positive correlation in both muscles with image features (energy and homogeneity). Combing Scanning Electron Microscopy with image analysis can be a useful tool to analyze quality parameters in meat.Summary SCANNING 38:727-734, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Lai, Zhongping; Tian, Qing; Liu, Wen; Li, Jun

2017-11-01

The variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China during 1960-2015 were analysed using a linear regression (LR) analysis, a Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results showed that the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased at the rate of 0.15°C/10yr, 0.23°C/10yr and 0.19°C/10yr, respectively, over the whole study area during 1960-2015. The warming magnitudes for the above variables during 1980-2015 were much higher than those during 1960-2015:0.38°C/10yr, 0.35°C/10yr and 0.36°C/10yr, respectively. The seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased in the spring, autumn and winter seasons during 1960-2015. Although the summer temperatures also increased at some extent, only the minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend. Meanwhile, the highest rate of increase of seasonal mean temperature occurred in winter (0.24°C/10yr) during 1960-2015 and spring (0.50°C/10yr) during 1980-2015, which indicated that the significant warming trend for the whole YRB could be attributed to the remarkable temperature increases in winter and spring months. However, both the annual and seasonal warming magnitudes showed large regional differences, and a higher warming rate was detected in the eastern YRB and the western source region of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Additionally, annual precipitation increased by approximately 12.02 mm/10yr during 1960-2015 but decreased at the rate of 19.63 mm/10yr during 1980-2015. There were decreasing trends for precipitation in all four seasons since 1980 in the YRB, and a significant increasing trend was only detected in summer since 1960 (12.37 mm/10yr). Overall, a warming-wetting trend was detected in the south-eastern and north-western YRB, while there was a warming-drying trend in middle regions.

Assessing non-linear variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and their impacts on phenology in the Midwest of Jilin Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Wang, Yongfang; Alu, Si; Wang, Rui; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si

2018-05-01

In the past two decades, the regional climate in China has undergone significant change, resulting in crop yield reduction and complete failure. The goal of this study is to detect the variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and assess their impact on phenology. The daily meteorological data in the Midwest of Jilin Province during 1960-2014 were used in the study. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method was adopted to analyze the non-linear trend and fluctuation in temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivity of the length of the maize growth period to temperature and precipitation was analyzed by the wavelet cross-transformation method. The results show that the trends of temperature and precipitation change are non-linear for different growth periods of maize, and the average temperature in the sowing-jointing stage was different from that in the other growth stages, showing a slight decrease trend, while the variation amplitude of maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature. This indicates that the temperature difference between day and night shows a gradually decreasing trend. Precipitation in the growth period also showed a decreasing non-linear trend, while the inter-annual variability with period of quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year dominated the variation of temperature and precipitation. The whole growth period was shortened by 10.7 days, and the sowing date was advanced by approximately 11 days. We also found that there was a significant resonance period among temperature, precipitation, and phenology. Overall, a negative correlation between phenology and temperature is evident, while a positive correlation with precipitation is exhibited. The results illustrate that the climate suitability for maize has reduced over the past decades.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States.

PubMed

Welsh, Jean A; Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-09-01

The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999-2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend <0.001 for both). Energy drinks were the only source of added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend <0.001). Although the consumption of added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits.

Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States1234

PubMed Central

Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-01-01

Background: The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. Objective: We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. Design: A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999–2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Results: Between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend <0.001 for both). Energy drinks were the only source of added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend <0.001). Conclusion: Although the consumption of added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits. PMID:21753067

Caribou distribution during the post-calving period in relation to infrastructure in the Prudhoe Bay oil field, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Matthew A.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Durner, George M.; Noel, Lynn E.; McDonald, Trent L.; Ballard, Warren B.

1998-01-01

There is concern that caribou (Rangifer tarandus) may avoid roads and facilities (i.e., infrastructure) in the Prudhoe Bay oil field (PBOF) in northern Alaska, and that this avoidance can have negative effects on the animals. We quantified the relationship between caribou distribution and PBOF infrastructure during the post-calving period (mid-June to mid-August) with aerial surveys from 1990 to 1995. We conducted four to eight surveys per year with complete coverage of the PBOF. We identified active oil field infrastructure and used a geographic information system (GIS) to construct ten 1 km wide concentric intervals surrounding the infrastructure. We tested whether caribou distribution is related to distance from infrastructure with a chi-squared habitat utilization-availability analysis and log-linear regression. We considered bulls, calves, and total caribou of all sex/age classes separately. The habitat utilization-availability analysis indicated there was no consistent trend of attraction to or avoidance of infrastructure. Caribou frequently were more abundant than expected in the intervals close to infrastructure, and this trend was more pronounced for bulls and for total caribou of all sex/age classes than for calves. Log-linear regression (with Poisson error structure) of numbers of caribou and distance from infrastructure were also done, with and without combining data into the 1 km distance intervals. The analysis without intervals revealed no relationship between caribou distribution and distance from oil field infrastructure, or between caribou distribution and Julian date, year, or distance from the Beaufort Sea coast. The log-linear regression with caribou combined into distance intervals showed the density of bulls and total caribou of all sex/age classes declined with distance from infrastructure. Our results indicate that during the post-calving period: 1) caribou distribution is largely unrelated to distance from infrastructure; 2) caribou regularly use habitats in the PBOF; 3) caribou often occur close to infrastructure; and 4) caribou do not appear to avoid oil field infrastructure.

Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

2014-01-01

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

Thyroid hormones and coronary artery calcification in euthyroid men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiyi; Kim, Bo-Kyoung; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Rampal, Sanjay; Zhao, Di; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Lima, Joao A; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

2014-09-01

Overt and subclinical hypothyroidism are risk factors for atherosclerosis. It is unclear whether thyroid hormone levels within the normal range are also associated with atherosclerosis measured by coronary artery calcium (CAC). We conducted a cross-sectional study of 41 403 apparently healthy young and middle-aged men and women with normal thyroid hormone levels. Free thyroxin, free triiodothyronine, and thyroid-stimulating hormone levels were measured by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay. CAC score was measured by multidetector computed tomography. The multivariable adjusted CAC ratios comparing the highest versus the lowest quartile of thyroid hormones were 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.91; P for trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.81 (0.66-1.00; P for trend=0.05) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.78 (0.64-0.95; P for trend=0.01) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. Similarly, the odds ratios for detectable CAC (CAC >0) comparing the highest versus the lowest quartiles of thyroid hormones were 0.87 (0.79-0.96; P for linear trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.90 (0.82-0.99; P for linear trend=0.02) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.91 (0.83-1.00; P for linear trend=0.03) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. In a large cohort of apparently healthy young and middle-aged euthyroid men and women, low-normal free thyroxin and thyroid-stimulating hormone were associated with a higher prevalence of subclinical coronary artery disease and with a greater degree of coronary calcification. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Riparian Bird Population Monitoring in Utah, 1992-2001

Treesearch

Russell E. Norvell; Frank P. Howe; Jimmie R. Parrish

2005-01-01

We report statewide linear and non-linear trends in density from 1992 to 2001 for six common bird species in the riparian areas of Utah. The six species examined here represent over 24 percent of all observations in the period. Four of the six species showed linear declines (Black-headed Grosbeak [Pheucticus melanocephalus], American Goldfinch [

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Dendrochemical record of historical lead contamination sources, Wells G&H Superfund site, Woburn, Massachusetts.

PubMed

Burnett, Aaron; Kurtz, Andrew C; Brabander, Daniel; Shailer, Mark

2007-01-01

Laser-ablation inductively coupled-plasma mass-spectrometry analysis of red oak (Quercus rubra) from a well documented heavy metal contaminated United States Environmental Protection Agency superfund site in Woburn, Massachusetts reveals decade-long trends in Pb contaminant sources. Lead isotope ratios (207Pb/206Pb and 208Pb/206Pb) in tree rings plot along a linear trend bracketed by several local and regional contamination sources. Statistically significant interannual variations in 207Pb/206Pb suggest that atmospheric Pb is rapidly incorporated into wood, with minimal mobility subsequent to deposition in annual growth rings. We interpret the decadal trends in our record as a changing mixture of local pollution sources and gasoline-derived Pb. Between 1940 and 1970, Pb was predominantly derived from remobilization of local industrial Pb sources. An abrupt shift in 207Pb/206Pb may indicate that local Pb sources were overwhelmed by gasoline-derived Pb during the peak of leaded gasoline emissions in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

The largest Last Supper: depictions of food portions and plate size increased over the millennium.

PubMed

Wansink, B; Wansink, C S

2010-05-01

Portion sizes of foods have been noticably increasing in recent years, but when did this trend begin? If art imitates life and if food portions have been generally increasing with time, we might expect this trend to be reflected in paintings that depict food. Perhaps the most commonly painted meal has been that of Jesus Christ's Last Supper, chronicled in the New Testament of the Bible. A CAD-CAM analysis of the relative food-to-head ratio in 52 representative paintings of the Last Supper showed that the relative sizes of the main dish (entree) (r=0.52, P=0.002), bread (r=0.30, P=0.04), and plates (r=0.46, P=0.02) have linearly increased over the past millennium.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Lu; Albright, Austin P; Rahimpour, Alireza

Wide-area-measurement systems (WAMSs) are used in smart grid systems to enable the efficient monitoring of grid dynamics. However, the overwhelming amount of data and the severe contamination from noise often impede the effective and efficient data analysis and storage of WAMS generated measurements. To solve this problem, we propose a novel framework that takes advantage of Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEMD), a fully data-driven approach to analyzing non-stationary signals, dubbed MEMD based Signal Analysis (MSA). The frequency measurements are considered as a linear superposition of different oscillatory components and noise. The low-frequency components, corresponding to the long-term trend and inter-areamore » oscillations, are grouped and compressed by MSA using the mean shift clustering algorithm. Whereas, higher-frequency components, mostly noise and potentially part of high-frequency inter-area oscillations, are analyzed using Hilbert spectral analysis and they are delineated by statistical behavior. By conducting experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we show that the proposed framework can capture the characteristics, such as trends and inter-area oscillation, while reducing the data storage requirements« less

Spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation remote sensing phenology and its response to climatic factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, S.; Chen, X.

2015-12-01

Based on the MODIS MCD12Q2 remote sensing phenology product, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations of vegetation green-up, maturity, senescence and brown-off dates, and their relation to spatiotemporal patterns of air temperature and precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). From 2001 to 2012, phenological time series at about 11.7%~15.1% pixels indicate significant linear trends (P<0.1) with strong spatial consistency. Namely, pixels with significant phenological advancement and growing season lengthening are mainly distributed in the middle and eastern parts of the QTP, while pixels with significant phenological delay and growing season shortening are mainly distributed in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge of the QTP. Similar spatial patterns for positive and negative linear trends of the minimum and maximum EVI, and the time-integrated EVI during the growing season were detected in the above two regions, respectively. With regard to climatic factors, mean annual temperature shows an increased trend over the QTP except for the eastern edge, whereas annual precipitation displays an increased trend in the middle and eastern parts but a decreased trend in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge of the QTP. These findings suggest that phenological advancement, growing season lengthening, and vegetation activity enhancement in the middle and eastern parts might be attributed to coincident temperature and precipitation increase. By contrast, phenological delay, growing season shortening, and vegetation activity reduction in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge might be caused by opposite changes of temperature and precipitation, and strong evaporation induced water shortage. Furthermore, a partial correlation analysis indicates that green-up, maturity, and brown-off dates were influenced by preceding temperature and precipitation, while senescence date was affected by preceding precipitation.

Trajectories of eGFR decline over a four year period in an Indigenous Australian population at high risk of CKD-the eGFR follow up study.

PubMed

Barzi, Federica; Jones, Graham R D; Hughes, Jaquelyne T; Lawton, Paul D; Hoy, Wendy; O'Dea, Kerin; Jerums, George; MacIsaac, Richard J; Cass, Alan; Maple-Brown, Louise J

2018-03-01

Being able to estimate kidney decline accurately is particularly important in Indigenous Australians, a population at increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease and end stage kidney disease. The aim of this analysis was to explore the trend of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over a four year period using multiple local creatinine measures, compared with estimates derived using centrally-measured enzymatic creatinine and with estimates derived using only two local measures. The eGFR study comprised a cohort of over 600 Aboriginal Australian participants recruited from over twenty sites in urban, regional and remote Australia across five strata of health, diabetes and kidney function. Trajectories of eGFR were explored on 385 participants with at least three local creatinine records using graphical methods that compared the linear trends fitted using linear mixed models with non-linear trends fitted using fractional polynomial equations. Temporal changes of local creatinine were also characterized using group-based modelling. Analyses were stratified by eGFR (<60; 60-89; 90-119 and ≥120ml/min/1.73m 2 ) and albuminuria categories (<3mg/mmol; 3-30mg/mmol; >30mg/mmol). Mean age of the participants was 48years, 64% were female and the median follow-up was 3years. Decline of eGFR was accurately estimated using simple linear regression models and locally measured creatinine was as good as centrally measured creatinine at predicting kidney decline in people with an eGFR<60 and an eGFR 60-90ml/min/1.73m 2 with albuminuria. Analyses showed that one baseline and one follow-up locally measured creatinine may be sufficient to estimate short term (up to four years) kidney function decline. The greatest yearly decline was estimated in those with eGFR 60-90 and macro-albuminuria: -6.21 (-8.20, -4.23) ml/min/1.73m 2 . Short term estimates of kidney function decline can be reliably derived using an easy to implement and simple to interpret linear mixed effect model. Locally measured creatinine did not differ to centrally measured creatinine, thus is an accurate cost-efficient and timely means to monitoring kidney function progression. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of mercury in rainbow trout collected from Duck Valley Indian Reservation reservoirs, southwestern Idaho and northern Nevada, 2007, 2009, and 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Marshall L.; MacCoy, Dorene E.; Maret, Terry R.

2015-07-17

Coupled with the dynamic put-and-take fishery, the outcomes reflect the system complexities among reservoirs despite their fairly close proximity to one another. The influence of these other factors is evident when the analysis of atmospheric Hg deposition at Mercury Deposition Network site NV02 in northern Nevada showed no significant linear trend in wet Hg deposition rates for 2003–2013 (average 3.02 micrograms per square meter).

Surface features of central North America: a synoptic view from computer graphics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pike, R.J.

1991-01-01

A digital shaded-relief image of the 48 contiguous United States shows the details of large- and small-scale landforms, including several linear trends. The features faithfully reflect tectonism, continental glaciation, fluvial activity, volcanism, and other surface-shaping events and processes. The new map not only depicts topography accurately and in its true complexity, but does so in one synoptic view that provides a regional context for geologic analysis unobscured by clouds, culture, vegetation, or artistic constraints. -Author

Improving resident performance on standardized assessments of medical knowledge: a retrospective analysis of interventions correlated to American Board of Surgery In-Service Training Examination performance.

PubMed

Buckley, Elaine Jayne; Markwell, Stephen; Farr, Debb; Sanfey, Hilary; Mellinger, John

2015-10-01

American Board of Surgery In-Service Training Examination (ABSITE) scores are used to assess individual progress and predict board pass rates. We reviewed strategies to enhance ABSITE performance and their impact within a surgery residency. Several interventions were introduced from 2010 to 2014. A retrospective review was undertaken evaluating these and correlating them to ABSITE performance. Analyses of variance and linear trends were performed for ABSITE, United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLEs), mock oral, and mock ABSITE scores followed by post hoc analyses if significant. Results were correlated with core curricular changes. ABSITE mean percentile increased 34% in 4 years with significant performance improvement and increasing linear trends in postgraduate year (PGY)1 and PGY4 ABSITE scores. Mock ABSITE introduction correlated to significant improvement in ABSITE scores for PGY4 and PGY5. Mock oral introduction correlated with significant improvement in PGY1 and PGY3. Our study demonstrates an improvement in mean program ABSITE percentiles correlating with multiple interventions. Similar strategies may be useful for other programs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Two-warehouse partial backlogging inventory model for deteriorating items with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaggi, Chandra K.; Khanna, Aditi; Verma, Priyanka

2011-07-01

In today's business transactions, there are various reasons, namely, bulk purchase discounts, re-ordering costs, seasonality of products, inflation induced demand, etc., which force the buyer to order more than the warehouse capacity. Such situations call for additional storage space to store the excess units purchased. This additional storage space is typically a rented warehouse. Inflation plays a very interesting and significant role here: It increases the cost of goods. To safeguard from the rising prices, during the inflation regime, the organisation prefers to keep a higher inventory, thereby increasing the aggregate demand. This additional inventory needs additional storage space, which is facilitated by a rented warehouse. Ignoring the effects of the time value of money and inflation might yield misleading results. In this study, a two-warehouse inventory model with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions having different rates of deterioration has been developed. Shortages at the owned warehouse are also allowed subject to partial backlogging. The solution methodology provided in the model helps to decide on the feasibility of renting a warehouse. Finally, findings have been illustrated with the help of numerical examples. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis has also been provided.

Photometric and Spectral Study of the Saturnian Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Sarah F.

2005-01-01

Photometric and spectra analysis of data from the Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) has yielded intriguing findings regarding the surface properties of several of the icy Saturnian satellites. Spectral cubes were obtained of these satellites with a wavelength distribution in the IR far more extensive than from any previous observations. Disk-integrated solar phase curves were constructed in several key IR wavelengths that are indicative of key properties of the surface of the body, such as macroscopic roughness, fluffiness (or the porosity of the surface), global albedo and scattering properties of surface particles. Polynomial fits to these phase curves indicate a linear albedo trend of the curvature of the phase functions. Rotational phase functions from Enceladus were found to exhibit a double-peaked sinusoidal curve, which shows larger amplitudes for bands corresponding to water ice and a linear amplitude-albedo trend. These functions indicate regions on the surface of the satellite of more recent geologic activity. In addition, recent images of Enceladus show tectonic features and an absence of impact craters on Southern latitudes which could be indicative of a younger surface. Investigations into the properties of these features using VIMS are underway.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Hierarchical model analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Klimstra, Jon D.; Link, William A.

2014-01-01

We used log-linear hierarchical models to analyze data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey. The survey has been conducted by state biologists each year since 1989 in the northeastern United States from Virginia north to New Hampshire and Vermont. Although yearly population estimates from the survey are used by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service for estimating regional waterfowl population status for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), black ducks (Anas rubripes), wood ducks (Aix sponsa), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis), they are not routinely adjusted to control for time of day effects and other survey design issues. The hierarchical model analysis permits estimation of year effects and population change while accommodating the repeated sampling of plots and controlling for time of day effects in counting. We compared population estimates from the current stratified random sample analysis to population estimates from hierarchical models with alternative model structures that describe year to year changes as random year effects, a trend with random year effects, or year effects modeled as 1-year differences. Patterns of population change from the hierarchical model results generally were similar to the patterns described by stratified random sample estimates, but significant visibility differences occurred between twilight to midday counts in all species. Controlling for the effects of time of day resulted in larger population estimates for all species in the hierarchical model analysis relative to the stratified random sample analysis. The hierarchical models also provided a convenient means of estimating population trend as derived statistics from the analysis. We detected significant declines in mallard and American black ducks and significant increases in wood ducks and Canada geese, a trend that had not been significant for 3 of these 4 species in the prior analysis. We recommend using hierarchical models for analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey.

Obesity and severe obesity forecasts through 2030.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Khavjou, Olga A; Thompson, Hope; Trogdon, Justin G; Pan, Liping; Sherry, Bettylou; Dietz, William

2012-06-01

Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off. This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts. The study was conducted in 2009-2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥ 18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence. Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion. The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the clinical course of neck pain in physical therapy: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Walton, David M; Eilon-Avigdor, Yaara; Wonderham, Michael; Wilk, Piotr

2014-02-01

To investigate the short-term trajectory of recovery from mechanical neck pain, and predictors of trajectory. Prospective, longitudinal cohort study with 5 repeated measurements over 4 weeks. Community-based physical therapy clinics. Convenience sample of community-dwelling adults (N=50) with uncomplicated mechanical neck disorders of any duration. Usual physical therapy care. Neck Disability Index (NDI), numeric rating scale (NRS) of pain intensity. A total of 50 consecutive subjects provided 5 data points over 4 weeks. Exploratory modeling using latent class growth analysis revealed a linear trend in improvement, at a mean of 1.5 NDI points and 0.5 NRS points per week. Within the NDI trajectory, 3 latent classes were identified, each with a unique trend: worsening (14.5%), rapid improvement (19.6%), and slow improvement (65.8%). Within the NRS trajectory, 2 unique trends were identified: stable (48.0%) and improving (52.0%). Predictors of trajectory class suggest that it may be possible to predict the trajectory. Results are described in view of the sample size. The mean trajectory of improvement in neck pain adequately fits a linear model and suggests slow but stable improvement over the short term. However, up to 3 different trajectories have been identified that suggest neck pain, and recovery thereof, is not homogenous. This may hold value for the design of clinical trials. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observed changes in relative humidity and dew point temperature in coastal regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P.; Sabziparvar, A. A.; Tabari, Hossein

2012-12-01

The analysis of trends in hydroclimatic parameters and assessment of their statistical significance have recently received a great concern to clarify whether or not there is an obvious climate change. In the current study, parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests were applied for detecting annual and seasonal trends in the relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature ( T dew) time series at ten coastal weather stations in Iran during 1966-2005. The serial structure of the data was considered, and the significant serial correlations were eliminated using the trend-free pre-whitening method. The results showed that annual RH increased by 1.03 and 0.28 %/decade at the northern and southern coastal regions of the country, respectively, while annual T dew increased by 0.29 and 0.15°C per decade at the northern and southern regions, respectively. The significant trends were frequent in the T dew series, but they were observed only at 2 out of the 50 RH series. The results showed that the difference between the results of the parametric and nonparametric tests was small, although the parametric test detected larger significant trends in the RH and T dew time series. Furthermore, the differences between the results of the trend tests were not related to the normality of the statistical distribution.

Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

2009-09-01

Climate change has an important role in the current scientific research because of its possible future negative consequences. Concerning the climate change in the coastal engineering field, the apparent sea level rise is one of the key parameters as well as the wave height and the wave direction temporal variations. According to the IPCC (2007), during the last century the sea level has been increasing with a mean rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/yr. However, at local/regional scale the tendency significantly differs from the global trend since the local pressure and wind field variations become more relevant. This appears to be particularly significant in semi-enclosed areas in the Mediterranean Sea (Cushman-Roisin et al., 2001). Even though the existing unsolved questions related to the sea level rise, the uncertainty concerning the wave height is even larger, in which stormy conditions are especially important because they are closely related to processes such as coastal erosion, flooding, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to identify possible existing tendencies of storm related parameters. In many studies, only the maximum wave height and storm duration are analysed, remaining the wave direction in a second term. Note that a possible rotation of the mean wave direction may involve severe consequences since most beach and harbour defence structures have been designed assuming a constant predominant wave incidence. Liste et al. (2004) illustrated this fact with an example in which a rotation of only 2 degrees of the mean energy flux vector could produce a beach retreat of 20 m. Another possible consequence would be a decrease of the harbour operability: increased frequency of storms in the same direction as the harbour entrance orientation would influence the navigability. The present study, which focuses in the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea), aims to improve the present knowledge of the wave storminess variations at regional scale, specially focusing on the wave directionality. It is based on 44 year hindcast model data (1958-2001) of the HIPOCAS project, enabling to work with a longer time series compared to the existing measured ones. 41 nodes of this database are used, containing 3 hourly simulated data of significant wave height and wave direction, among other parameters. For storm definition, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method is used with some additional duration requirements in order to analyse statistically independent events (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2006). Including both wave height and storm duration, the wave storminess is characterised by the energy content (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2004), being in turn log-transformed because of its positive scale. Separately, the wave directionality itself is analysed in terms of different sectors and approaching their probability of occurrence by counting events and using Bayesian inference (Agresti, 2002). Therefore, the original data is transformed into compositional data and, before performing the trend analysis, the isometric logratio (ilr) transformation (Egozcue et al., 2003) is done. In general, the trend analysis methodology consists in two steps: 1) trend detection and 2) trend quantification. For 1) the Mann Kendall test is used in order to identify the nodes with significant trend. For these selected nodes, the trend quantification is done, comparing two methods: 1) a simple linear regression analysis complemented with the bootstrap technique and 2) a Bayesian analysis, assuming normally distributed data with linearly increasing mean. Preliminary results show no significant trend for both annual mean and maximum energy content except for some nodes located to the Northern Catalan coast. Regarding the wave direction (but not only considering stormy conditions) there is a tendency of North direction to decrease whereas South and Southeast direction seems to increase.

Precipitation collector bias and its effects on temporal trends and spatial variability in National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetherbee, Gregory A.

2017-01-01

Precipitation samples have been collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program's (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) using the Aerochem Metrics Model 301 (ACM) collector since 1978. Approximately one-third of the NTN ACM collectors have been replaced with N-CON Systems, Inc. Model ADS 00-120 (NCON) collectors. Concurrent data were collected over 6 years at 12 NTN sites using colocated ACM and NCON collectors in various precipitation regimes. Linear regression models of the colocated data were used to adjust for relative bias between the collectors. Replacement of ACM collectors with NCON collectors resulted in shifts in 10-year seasonal precipitation-weighted mean concentration (PWMC) trend slopes for: cations (−0.001 to −0.007 mgL−1yr−1), anions (−0.009 to −0.028 mgL−1yr−1), and hydrogen ion (+0.689 meqL-1yr−1). Larger shifts in NO3− and SO4−2 seasonal PWMC trend slopes were observed in the Midwest and Northeast US, where concentrations are generally higher than in other regions. Geospatial analysis of interpolated concentration rasters indicated regions of accentuated variability introduced by incorporation of NCON collectors into the NTN.

Relation between relief and crustal structure in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain) using DEM-GIS analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llana-Fúnez, Sergio; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Laura; Ballesteros, Daniel; María Díaz-Díaz, Luis; Valenzuela, Pablo; López-Fernández, Carlos; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Meléndez, Mónica; Jiménez-Sánchez, Montserrat; Fernández-Viejo, Gabriela

2017-04-01

The Cantabrian Mountains show a linear E-W trend parallel to the northern coast of Iberia peninsula, from the Pyrenees to Galicia, where it looses its trend and linearity. The western end of the linear segment of the orogen coincides with a change in the style of structures, accommodating the N-S shortening during the convergence between Europe and Iberia plates. We study the relief of the 230 km-long segment of the linear range between the Cantabria and Galicia re- gions, up to 2,650 m altitude. The bulk trend of the orogeny is controlled by the orientation of alpine thrusts that accommodate the shortening in relation to plate convergence. The Alpine Orogeny produced crustal thickening and the present day topography. Crustal thickness varies from 30 km in Eastern Cantabrian Mountains to 45-55 km at the Middle part of these mountains. The collision between European and African plates localized in northern Iberia from the Eocene to Oligocene and later migrated to southern Iberia during the Miocene. No major tectonic convergence was accommodated in the Cantabrians Mountains since the Oligocene, entering the orogen an erosional phase since then. The GIS-analysis present here, using 5 and 25 m-resolution DEMs by the Spanish National Geographical Institute, aims to identify the major features and to characterize the overall relief of the Cantabrians Mountains. In our preliminary approach, we present swath profiles, major river basins, watershed, longitudinal profiles of major rivers and hypsometric curves from selected areas that cover the studied orogen segment. Major tectonic structures control the location and orientation of the main watershed of the mountain range, but also the orientation of some local watersheds, e.g. associated to the Llanera thrust or the Ventaniella (strike-slip) fault. An unexpected result is that the average altitude along the water divide is 1,500 m, regardless of the large differences in crustal thickness along the study area. Most longitudinal river profiles running south to north lack knick points in relation to relief forming tectonic structures, indicative of the predominance of fluvial erosional system postdating tectonics. An emerged coastal wave-cut platform dipping gently towards the West, a slight increase in maximum mountain altitude to the east and slight increase in river incision also towards the East may indicate that a gradient in erosion and in up-lifting exists increasing from West to East. This is consistent with an overall increase of crustal thickness along this direction.

Cross-conditional entropy and coherence analysis of pharmaco-EEG changes induced by alprazolam.

PubMed

Alonso, J F; Mañanas, M A; Romero, S; Rojas-Martínez, M; Riba, J

2012-06-01

Quantitative analysis of electroencephalographic signals (EEG) and their interpretation constitute a helpful tool in the assessment of the bioavailability of psychoactive drugs in the brain. Furthermore, psychotropic drug groups have typical signatures which relate biochemical mechanisms with specific EEG changes. To analyze the pharmacological effect of a dose of alprazolam on the connectivity of the brain during wakefulness by means of linear and nonlinear approaches. EEG signals were recorded after alprazolam administration in a placebo-controlled crossover clinical trial. Nonlinear couplings assessed by means of corrected cross-conditional entropy were compared to linear couplings measured with the classical magnitude squared coherence. Linear variables evidenced a statistically significant drug-induced decrease, whereas nonlinear variables showed significant increases. All changes were highly correlated to drug plasma concentrations. The spatial distribution of the observed connectivity changes clearly differed from a previous study: changes before and after the maximum drug effect were mainly observed over the anterior half of the scalp. Additionally, a new variable with very low computational cost was defined to evaluate nonlinear coupling. This is particularly interesting when all pairs of EEG channels are assessed as in this study. Results showed that alprazolam induced changes in terms of uncoupling between regions of the scalp, with opposite trends depending on the variables: decrease in linear ones and increase in nonlinear features. Maps provided consistent information about the way brain changed in terms of connectivity being definitely necessary to evaluate separately linear and nonlinear interactions.

Trend-outflow method for understanding interactions of surface water with groundwater and atmospheric water for eight reaches of the Upper Rio Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Sheng, Zhuping

2011-11-01

SummaryAtmospheric water, surface water, and groundwater interact very actively through hydrologic processes such as precipitation, infiltration, seepage, irrigation, drainage, evaporation, and evapotranspiration in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. A trend-outflow method has been developed in this paper to gain a better understanding of the interactions based on cumulated inflow and outflow data for any river reaches of interest. A general trend-outflow equation was derived by associating the net interaction of surface water with atmospheric water as a polynomial of inflow and the net interaction of surface water with groundwater as a constant based on surface water budget. Linear and quadratic relations are probably two common trend-outflow types in the real world. It was found that trend-outflows of the Upper Rio Grande reaches, Española, Albuquerque, Socorro-Engle, Palomas, and Rincon are linear with inflow, while those of reaches, Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are quadratic. Reaches Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are found as water deficit reaches mainly for irrigated agriculture in extreme drought years.

Trends in stratospheric NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2009-04-01

Data of spectrometric ground-based measurements of stratospheric column NO2 contents at stations within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) are analyzed for linear trends. The trend analysis takes into account the NO2 seasonal variation, effects of the 11-year solar and geomagnetic activity cycles, effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the El Nino - Southern Oscillation, and the effects of the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions. The latitudinal distributions of the annual and seasonal trends in NO2 have been obtained. The annual trends are mostly positive in the southern hemisphere middle and low latitudes and negative in the European sector of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. In the high and polar latitudes of the two hemispheres, the annual estimates of trends are mostly statistically insignificant. However, a positive NO2 trend is observed at 78°S in the Antarctic, while positive and negative trends are observed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes. The maximum positive and negative trends are about 10% per decade by module. Seasonal estimates of the trends differ generally from the annual estimates. At stations of Zvenigorod, Jungfraujoch (northern hemisphere middle latitudes), Lauder, and Macquarie Island (southern hemisphere middle latitudes) the signs of the NO2 trends do not depend on season, although the trend values vary with season. At other stations, trend values, their statistical significance, and even their signs can vary with season. Nitrogen oxides affects the photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone directly and indirectly, influencing the effectiveness of ozone destruction in the chlorine cycle. The observed significant trends in stratospheric NO2 should result in noticeable perturbations of the rates of ozone destruction in the nitrogen cycle. The sensitivities of photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone to long-term changes in stratospheric NO2 and chlorine are estimated using a combination of analytical and one-dimensional photochemical models.

Use of multivariate analysis for determining sources of solutes found in wet atmospheric deposition in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooper, R.P.; Peters, N.E.

1989-01-01

A principal-components analysis was performed on the major solutes in wet deposition collected from 194 stations in the United States and its territories. Approximately 90% of the components derived could be interpreted as falling into one of three categories - acid, salt, or an agricultural/soil association. The total mass, or the mass of any one solute, was apportioned among these components by multiple linear regression techniques. The use of multisolute components for determining trends or spatial distribution represents a substantial improvement over single-solute analysis in that these components are more directly related to the sources of the deposition. The geographic patterns displayed by the components in this analysis indicate a far more important role for acid deposition in the Southeast and intermountain regions of the United States than would be indicated by maps of sulfate or nitrate deposition alone. In the Northeast and Midwest, the acid component is not declining at most stations, as would be expected from trends in sulfate deposition, but is holding constant or increasing. This is due, in part, to a decline in the agriculture/soil factor throughout this region, which would help to neutralize the acidity.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is increasing in Norway: a time series analysis of reported MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus cases, 1997-2010.

PubMed

Moxnes, John F; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina E Fossum

2013-01-01

Accurate estimates of the incidence and prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are needed to inform public health policies. In Norway, where both MRSA infection and carriage are notifiable conditions, the reported incidence of MRSA is slowly increasing. However, the proportion of MRSA in relation to all S. aureus isolates is unknown, making it difficult to determine if the rising incidence is real or an artifact of an increasing number of tests performed. To characterize recent trends in MRSA infections and obtain a more complete understanding of the MRSA level in Norway. All reported cases of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) from Oslo County (1997-2010) and Health Region East (2008-2008), representing approximately 11% and 36% of the Norwegian population, respectively, were analyzed using a stochastic time series analysis to characterize trends. In Oslo County, the proportion of methicillin-resistant cases increased from 0.73% to 3.78% during the study period and was well modeled by an exponential growth with a doubling constant of 5.7 years (95% CI 4.5-7.4 years). In Health Region East, the proportion of MRSA cases increased from 0.4% to 2.1% from 2002 to 2008, with a best-fitting linear increase of 0.26% (95% CI 0.21-0.30%) per year. In both cases, the choice of a linear or exponential model for the time trend produced only marginally different model fits. We found no significant changes due to revised national MRSA guidelines published in June 2009. Significant variations in the increasing time trend were observed in the five hospitals within the region. The yearly reported incidence of MSSA was relatively stable in both study areas although we found seasonal patterns with peaks in August. The level of MRSA is increasing in Norway, and the proportion of methicillin resistance in all S. aureus isolates are higher than the reported proportion of MRSA in invasive infections.

Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Is Increasing in Norway: A Time Series Analysis of Reported MRSA and Methicillin-Sensitive S. aureus Cases, 1997–2010

PubMed Central

Moxnes, John F.; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina E. Fossum

2013-01-01

Background Accurate estimates of the incidence and prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are needed to inform public health policies. In Norway, where both MRSA infection and carriage are notifiable conditions, the reported incidence of MRSA is slowly increasing. However, the proportion of MRSA in relation to all S. aureus isolates is unknown, making it difficult to determine if the rising incidence is real or an artifact of an increasing number of tests performed. Aim To characterize recent trends in MRSA infections and obtain a more complete understanding of the MRSA level in Norway. Methods All reported cases of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) from Oslo County (1997–2010) and Health Region East (2008–2008), representing approximately 11% and 36% of the Norwegian population, respectively, were analyzed using a stochastic time series analysis to characterize trends. Results In Oslo County, the proportion of methicillin-resistant cases increased from 0.73% to 3.78% during the study period and was well modeled by an exponential growth with a doubling constant of 5.7 years (95% CI 4.5–7.4 years). In Health Region East, the proportion of MRSA cases increased from 0.4% to 2.1% from 2002 to 2008, with a best-fitting linear increase of 0.26% (95% CI 0.21–0.30%) per year. In both cases, the choice of a linear or exponential model for the time trend produced only marginally different model fits. We found no significant changes due to revised national MRSA guidelines published in June 2009. Significant variations in the increasing time trend were observed in the five hospitals within the region. The yearly reported incidence of MSSA was relatively stable in both study areas although we found seasonal patterns with peaks in August. Conclusion The level of MRSA is increasing in Norway, and the proportion of methicillin resistance in all S. aureus isolates are higher than the reported proportion of MRSA in invasive infections. PMID:23936442

Comparison of statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.

PubMed

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.

Influences of removing linear and nonlinear trends from climatic variables on temporal variations of annual reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Yao, Ning; Chau, Henry Wai

2017-08-15

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ) is a key parameter in field irrigation scheduling, drought assessment and climate change research. ET o uses key prescribed (or fixed or reference) land surface parameters for crops. The linear and nonlinear trends in different climatic variables (CVs) affect ET o change. This research aims to reveal how ET o responds after the related CVs were linearly and nonlinearly detrended over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China. The ET o -related CVs included minimum (T min ), average (T ave ), and maximum air temperatures (T max ), wind speed at 2m (U 2 ), relative humidity (RH) and sunshine hour (n). ET o was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. A total of 29 ET o scenarios, including the original scenario, 14 scenarios in Group I (ET o was recalculated after removing linear trends from single or more CVs) and 14 scenarios in Group II (ET o was recalculated after removing nonlinear trends from the CVs), were generated. The influence of U 2 was stronger than influences of the other CVs on ET o for both Groups I and II either in northern, southern or the entirety of Xinjiang. The weak influences of increased T min , T ave and T max on increasing ET o were masked by the strong effects of decreased U 2 &n and increased RH on decreasing ET o . The effects of the trends in CVs, especially U 2 , on changing ET o were clearly shown. Without the general decreases of U 2 , ET o would have increased in the past 53years. Due to the non-monotone variations of the CVs and ET o , the results of nonlinearly detrending CVs on changing ET o in Group II should be more plausible than the results of linearly detrending CVs in Group I. The decreasing ET o led to a general relief in drought, which was indicated by the recalculated aridity index. Therefore, there would be a slightly lower risk of water utilization in Xinjiang, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linear free-energy relationships and the density functional theory: an analog of the hammett equation.

PubMed

Simón-Manso, Yamil

2005-03-10

Density functional theory has been applied to describe electronic substituent effects, especially in the pursuit of linear relationships similar to those observed from physical organic chemistry experiments. In particular, analogues for the Hammett equation parameters (sigma, rho) have been developed. Theoretical calculations were performed on several series of organic molecules in order to validate our model and for comparison with experimental results. The trends obtained by Hammett-like relations predicted by the model were found to be in qualitative agreement with the experimental data. The results obtained in this study suggest the applicability of similar correlation analysis based on theoretical methodologies that do not make use of empirical fits to experimental data can be useful in the study of substituent effects in organic chemistry.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: HARPS timeseries data for HD41248 (Jenkins+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, J. S.; Tuomi, M.

2017-05-01

We modeled the HARPS radial velocities of HD 42148 by adopting the analysis techniques and the statistical model applied in Tuomi et al. (2014, arXiv:1405.2016). This model contains Keplerian signals, a linear trend, a moving average component with exponential smoothing, and linear correlations with activity indices, namely, BIS, FWHM, and chromospheric activity S index. We applied our statistical model outlined above to the full data set of radial velocities for HD 41248, combining the previously published data in Jenkins et al. (2013ApJ...771...41J) with the newly published data in Santos et al. (2014, J/A+A/566/A35), giving rise to a total time series of 223 HARPS (Mayor et al. 2003Msngr.114...20M) velocities. (1 data file).

Using Time Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a PICU.

PubMed

Kennedy, Curtis E; Aoki, Noriaki; Mariscalco, Michele; Turley, James P

2015-11-01

To build and test cardiac arrest prediction models in a PICU, using time series analysis as input, and to measure changes in prediction accuracy attributable to different classes of time series data. Retrospective cohort study. Thirty-one bed academic PICU that provides care for medical and general surgical (not congenital heart surgery) patients. Patients experiencing a cardiac arrest in the PICU and requiring external cardiac massage for at least 2 minutes. None. One hundred three cases of cardiac arrest and 109 control cases were used to prepare a baseline dataset that consisted of 1,025 variables in four data classes: multivariate, raw time series, clinical calculations, and time series trend analysis. We trained 20 arrest prediction models using a matrix of five feature sets (combinations of data classes) with four modeling algorithms: linear regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. The reference model (multivariate data with regression algorithm) had an accuracy of 78% and 87% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The best model (multivariate + trend analysis data with support vector machine algorithm) had an accuracy of 94% and 98% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cardiac arrest predictions based on a traditional model built with multivariate data and a regression algorithm misclassified cases 3.7 times more frequently than predictions that included time series trend analysis and built with a support vector machine algorithm. Although the final model lacks the specificity necessary for clinical application, we have demonstrated how information from time series data can be used to increase the accuracy of clinical prediction models.

Relationship of gas hydrate concentration to porosity and reflection amplitude in a research well, Mackenzie Delta, Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jin, Y.K.; Lee, M.W.; Collett, T.S.

2002-01-01

Well logs acquired at the Mallik 2L-38 gas hydrate research well. Mackenzie Delta, Canada, reveal a distinct trend showing that the resistivity of gas-hydrate-bearing sediments increases with increases in density porosities. This trend, opposite to the general trend of decrease in resistivity with porosity, implies that gas hydrates are more concentrated in the higher porosity. Using the Mallik 2L-38 well data, a proportional gas hydrate concentration (PGHC) model, which states that the gas hydrate concentration in the sediment's pore space is linearly proportional to porosity, is proposed for the general habitat of gas hydrate in sediments. Anomalous data (less than 6% of the total data) outside the dominant observed trend can be explained by local geological characteristics. The anomalous data analysis indicates that highly concentrated gas-hydrate-bearing layers would be expected where sediments have high proportions of gravel and coarse sand. Using the parameters in the PGHC model determined from resistivity-porosity logs, it is possible to qualitatively predict the degree of reflection amplitude variations in seismic profiles. Moderate-to-strong reflections are expected for the Mallik 2L-38 well. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term exposure to crystalline silica and risk of heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Yuewei; Rong, Yi; Steenland, Kyle; Christiani, David C; Huang, Xiji; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2014-09-01

The association between crystalline silica exposure and risk of heart disease mortality remains less clear. We investigated a cohort of 42,572 Chinese workers who were potentially exposed to crystalline silica and followed from 1960 to 2003. Cumulative silica exposure was estimated by linking a job-exposure matrix to each person's work history. Low-level silica exposure was defined as never having held a job with an exposure higher than 0.1 mg/m. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) in exposure-response analyses using Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 2846 deaths from heart disease during an average of 35 years follow-up. Positive exposure-response trends were observed for cumulative silica exposure associated with mortality from total heart disease (HRs for increasing quartiles of cumulative silica exposure compared with the unexposed group = 0.89, 1.09, 1.32, 2.10; P for linear trend < 0.001) and pulmonary heart disease (0.92, 1.39, 2.47, 5.46; P for linear trend < 0.001). These positive trends remained among workers with both high- and low-level silica exposure. There was also a positive trend for ischemic heart disease among workers with low-level exposure, with quartile HRs of 1.04, 1.13, 1.52, and 1.60 (P for linear trend < 0.001). Low-level crystalline silica exposure was associated with increased mortality from heart disease, including pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease, whereas high-level exposure mainly increased mortality from pulmonary heart disease. Current permissible exposure limits for crystalline silica in many countries may be insufficient to protect people from deaths due to heart disease.

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Íris M.; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J.

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement. PMID:28484413

Twenty-year trends in cardiovascular risk factors in India and influence of educational status.

PubMed

Gupta, Rajeev; Guptha, Soneil; Gupta, V P; Agrawal, Aachu; Gaur, Kiran; Deedwania, Prakash C

2012-12-01

Urban middle-socioeconomic status (SES) subjects have high burden of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income countries. To determine secular trends in risk factors among this population and to correlate risks with educational status we performed epidemiological studies in India. Five cross-sectional studies were performed in middle-SES urban locations in Jaipur, India from years 1992 to 2010. Cluster sampling was performed. Subjects (men, women) aged 20-59 years evaluated were 712 (459, 253) in 1992-94, 558 (286, 272) in 1999-2001, 374 (179, 195) in 2002-03, 887 (414, 473) in 2004-05, and 530 (324, 206) in 2009-10. Data were obtained by history, anthropometry, and fasting blood glucose and lipids estimation. Response rates varied from 55 to 75%. Mean values and risk factor prevalence were determined. Secular trends were identified using quadratic and log-linear regression and chi-squared for trend. Across the studies, there was high prevalence of overweight, hypertension, and lipid abnormalities. Age- and sex-adjusted trends showed significant increases in mean body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (quadratic and log-linear regression, p < 0.001). Systolic blood pressure (BP) decreased while insignificant changes were observed for waist-hip ratio and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Categorical trends showed increase in overweight and decrease in smoking (p < 0.05); insignificant changes were observed in truncal obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes. Adjustment for educational status attenuated linear trends in BMI and total and LDL cholesterol and accentuated trends in systolic BP, glucose, and HDL cholesterol. There was significant association of an increase in education with decline in smoking and an increase in overweight (two-line regression p < 0.05). In Indian urban middle-SES subjects there is high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Over a 20-year period BMI and overweight increased, smoking and systolic BP decreased, and truncal obesity, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes remained stable. Increasing educational status attenuated trends for systolic BP, glucose and HDL cholesterol, and BMI.

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations.

PubMed

Oliveira, Íris M; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement ( M ageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement.

Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

PubMed Central

von Ruesten, Anne; Steffen, Annika; Floegel, Anna; van der A, Daphne L.; Masala, Giovanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjaer, Jytte; Palli, Domenico; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.; Boeing, Heiner

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower. PMID:22102897

Initial Polarimetric Analysis of the Vestoid Asteroid Family

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maleszewski, C.; McMillan, R. S.; Smith, P.

2013-12-01

Observations of polarized light scattered off of asteroid regolith have been used to compare the major asteroid taxonomic types. Members within a taxonomic type tend to have similar polarimetric phase curves (linear polarization vs. phase angle). The polarization also exhibits a wavelength dependence. For the S-complex, the polarization decreases linearly with increasing wavelength. This is different from the C-complex, which has the opposite dependence of polarization on wavelength. The slope of wavelength dependence also changes with phase angle for both complexes; at higher phase angles, the wavelength dependence is steeper. One of the less analyzed taxonomic types with regards to polarization is the V-type. Focus has been placed on the largest member of the V-types: Vesta. However, the Vestoids, which are thought to be collisional remnants of Vesta, have not been analyzed. Due to Vesta's differentiation, the Vestoids as a whole should contain members with significant differences in composition. This in turn should mean significant variations in the polarization observed from these bodies. In order to confirm such differences, we have begun a polarimetric survey of Vestoids. Over thirty observations of six different Vestoids were obtained using the SPOL spectropolarimeter (http://james.as.arizona.edu/~psmith/SPOL/ ) and Steward Observatory telescopes. The wavelength dependence of linear polarization was plotted with respect to the observed phase angle. The linear polarization trends in each of the synthesized B, V, and R bandpasses do not fit a single curve, contrary to that displayed by ensembles of asteroids in other taxonomic complexes. This suggests that these particular targets have dissimilar albedos. This is consistent with the range of albedos measured for the Vestoids through thermal models. However, there is no discernable trend for individual Vestoids with regards to wavelength dependence. Unlike the S- and C-complexes, our data show examples in which the polarization both increases and decreases with wavelength. When our Vestoid data are combined, the wavelength dependence becomes more negative (i.e. polarization tends to decrease with wavelength) as phase angle increases. This is similar to the trend observed in the S-complex, but the opposite trend when compared to the C-complex. The wavelength dependence of Vestoids suggests that this dependence is not strongly affected by albedo. The Vestoids are significantly smaller in size than the asteroids for which other measurements of the wavelength dependence have been analyzed. Possible grain size effects could be a cause of the dissimilar wavelength dependence between the Vestoids and other taxonomic complexes. However, further investigation is needed to explore this possibility.

Trend analysis of aerosol optical thickness and Ångström exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2012-06-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Changes in wind speed and extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 based on homogenized observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Yan, Zhongwei; Tu, Kai; Liu, Weidong; Wang, Yingchun

2011-03-01

Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26, -0.39, -0.30, -0.12 and -0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1, respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

Analysis of single-degree-of-freedom piezoelectric energy harvester with stopper by incremental harmonic balance method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dan; Wang, Xiaoman; Cheng, Yuan; Liu, Shaogang; Wu, Yanhong; Chai, Liqin; Liu, Yang; Cheng, Qianju

2018-05-01

Piecewise-linear structure can effectively broaden the working frequency band of the piezoelectric energy harvester, and improvement of its research can promote the practical process of energy collection device to meet the requirements for powering microelectronic components. In this paper, the incremental harmonic balance (IHB) method is introduced for the complicated and difficult analysis process of the piezoelectric energy harvester to solve these problems. After obtaining the nonlinear dynamic equation of the single-degree-of-freedom piecewise-linear energy harvester by mathematical modeling and the equation is solved based on the IHB method, the theoretical amplitude-frequency curve of open-circuit voltage is achieved. Under 0.2 g harmonic excitation, a piecewise-linear energy harvester is experimentally tested by unidirectional frequency-increasing scanning. The results demonstrate that the theoretical and experimental amplitudes have the same trend, and the width of the working band with high voltage output are 4.9 Hz and 4.7 Hz, respectively, and the relative error is 4.08%. The open-output peak voltage are 21.53 V and 18.25 V, respectively, and the relative error is 15.23%. Since the theoretical value is consistent with the experimental results, the theoretical model and the incremental harmonic balance method used in this paper are suitable for solving single-degree-of-freedom piecewise-linear piezoelectric energy harvester and can be applied to further parameter optimized design.

Recent trends of groundwater temperatures in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne A.; Bayer, Peter; Winkler, Gerfried; Blum, Philipp

2018-06-01

Climate change is one of if not the most pressing challenge modern society faces. Increasing temperatures are observed all over the planet and the impact of climate change on the hydrogeological cycle has long been shown. However, so far we have insufficient knowledge on the influence of atmospheric warming on shallow groundwater temperatures. While some studies analyse the implication climate change has for selected wells, large-scale studies are so far lacking. Here we focus on the combined impact of climate change in the atmosphere and local hydrogeological conditions on groundwater temperatures in 227 wells in Austria, which have in part been observed since 1964. A linear analysis finds a temperature change of +0.7 ± 0.8 K in the years from 1994 to 2013. In the same timeframe surface air temperatures in Austria increased by 0.5 ± 0.3 K, displaying a much smaller variety. However, most of the extreme changes in groundwater temperatures can be linked to local hydrogeological conditions. Correlation between groundwater temperatures and nearby surface air temperatures was additionally analysed. They vary greatly, with correlation coefficients of -0.3 in central Linz to 0.8 outside of Graz. In contrast, the correlation of nationwide groundwater temperatures and surface air temperatures is high, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. All of these findings indicate that while atmospheric climate change can be observed in nationwide groundwater temperatures, individual wells are often primarily dominated by local hydrogeological conditions. In addition to the linear temperature trend, a step-wise model was also applied that identifies climate regime shifts, which were observed globally in the late 70s, 80s, and 90s. Hinting again at the influence of local conditions, at most 22 % of all wells show these climate regime shifts. However, we were able to identify an additional shift in 2007, which was observed by 37 % of all wells. Overall, the step-wise representation provides a slightly more accurate picture of observed temperatures than the linear trend.

Detecting weak position fluctuations from encoder signal using singular spectrum analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaoqiang; Zhao, Ming; Lin, Jing

2017-11-01

Mechanical fault or defect will cause some weak fluctuations to the position signal. Detection of such fluctuations via encoders can help determine the health condition and performance of the machine, and offer a promising alternative to the vibration-based monitoring scheme. However, besides the interested fluctuations, encoder signal also contains a large trend and some measurement noise. In applications, the trend is normally several orders larger than the concerned fluctuations in magnitude, which makes it difficult to detect the weak fluctuations without signal distortion. In addition, the fluctuations can be complicated and amplitude modulated under non-stationary working condition. To overcome this issue, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is proposed for detecting weak position fluctuations from encoder signal in this paper. It enables complicated encode signal to be reduced into several interpretable components including a trend, a set of periodic fluctuations and noise. A numerical simulation is given to demonstrate the performance of the method, it shows that SSA outperforms empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in terms of capability and accuracy. Moreover, linear encoder signals from a CNC machine tool are analyzed to determine the magnitudes and sources of fluctuations during feed motion. The proposed method is proven to be feasible and reliable for machinery condition monitoring. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in birth across high-parity groups by race/ethnicity and maternal age.

PubMed Central

Aliyu, Muktar H.; Salihu, Hamisu M.; Keith, Louis G.; Ehiri, John E.; Islam, M. Aminul; Jolly, Pauline E.

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: The changing racial and ethnic diversity of the U.S. population along with delayed childbearing suggest that shifts in the demographic composition of gravidas are likely. It is unclear whether trends in the proportion of births to parous women in the United States have changed over the decades by race and ethnicity, reflecting parallel changes in population demographics. METHODS: Singleton deliveries > or = 20 weeks of gestation in the United States from 1989 through 2000 were analyzed using data from the "Natality data files" assembled by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). We classified maternal age into three categories; younger mothers (aged < 30 years), mature mothers (30-39 years) and older mothers (> or = 40 years) and maternal race/ethnicity into three groups: blacks (non-Hispanic), Hispanics and whites (non-Hispanic). We computed birth rates by period of delivery across the entire population and repeated the analysis stratified by age and maternal race. Chi-squared statistics for linear trend were utilized to assess linear trend across three four-year phases: 1989-1992, 1993-1996 and 1997-2000. In estimating the association between race/ethnicity and parity status, the direct method of standardization was employed to adjust for maternal age. RESULTS: Over the study period, the total number of births to blacks and whites diminished consistently (p for trend < 0.001), whereas among Hispanics a progressive increase in the total number of deliveries was evident (p for trend < 0.001). Black and white women experienced a reduction in total deliveries equivalent to 10% and 9.3%, respectively, while Hispanic women showed a substantial increment in total births (25%). Regardless of race or ethnicity, birth rate was associated with increase in maternal age in a dose-effect fashion among the high (5-9 previous live births), very high (10-14 previous live births) and extremely high (> or = 15 previous live births) parity groups (p for trend < 0.001). After maternal age standardization, black and Hispanic women were more likely to have higher parity as compared to whites. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate substantial variation in parity patterns among the main racial and ethnic populations in the United States. These results may help in formulating strategies that will serve as templates for optimizing resource allocation across the different racial/ethnic subpopulations in the United States. PMID:16035578

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

PubMed

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Remote Sensing Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Philipson, W. R. (Principal Investigator); Liang, T.; Philpot, W. D.

1983-01-01

Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were related to vineyard yield and other agronomic variables in an attempt to determine the optimum wavelengths for yield prediction modeling. Reflections between vine canopy reflectance and several management practices were also considered. Spectral analysis of test vines found that, although some correlations with vine yield were significant, they were inadequate for producing a yield prediction model. The findings also indicate that the vines examined through the field spectroradiometers were not truly representative. Geologic linears identified from aerial photographys, LANDSAT images, and maps were compared to gas well locations in three New York' counties. Correlations were found between the dominant trends in regional liners and gas field boundaries and trends. Other projects being conducted under the grant include determining vegetable acreage in mucklands, site selection for windmills, spectral effects of sulfur dioxide, and screening tomato seedlings for salt tolerance.

A Proof of Concept Study of Function-Based Statistical Analysis of fNIRS Data: Syntax Comprehension in Children with Specific Language Impairment Compared to Typically-Developing Controls.

PubMed

Fu, Guifang; Wan, Nicholas J A; Baker, Joseph M; Montgomery, James W; Evans, Julia L; Gillam, Ronald B

2016-01-01

Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a neuroimaging technology that enables investigators to indirectly monitor brain activity in vivo through relative changes in the concentration of oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin. One of the key features of fNIRS is its superior temporal resolution, with dense measurements over very short periods of time (100 ms increments). Unfortunately, most statistical analysis approaches in the existing literature have not fully utilized the high temporal resolution of fNIRS. For example, many analysis procedures are based on linearity assumptions that only extract partial information, thereby neglecting the overall dynamic trends in fNIRS trajectories. The main goal of this article is to assess the ability of a functional data analysis (FDA) approach for detecting significant differences in hemodynamic responses recorded by fNIRS. Children with and without SLI wore two, 3 × 5 fNIRS caps situated over the bilateral parasylvian areas as they completed a language comprehension task. FDA was used to decompose the high dimensional hemodynamic curves into the mean function and a few eigenfunctions to represent the overall trend and variation structures over time. Compared to the most popular GLM, we did not assume any parametric structure and let the data speak for itself. This analysis identified significant differences between the case and control groups in the oxygenated hemodynamic mean trends in the bilateral inferior frontal and left inferior posterior parietal brain regions. We also detected significant group differences in the deoxygenated hemodynamic mean trends in the right inferior posterior parietal cortex and left temporal parietal junction. These findings, using dramatically different approaches, experimental designs, data sets, and foci, were consistent with several other reports, confirming group differences in the importance of these two areas for syntax comprehension. The proposed FDA was consistent with the temporal characteristics of fNIRS, thus providing an alternative methodology for fNIRS analyses.

Online Learning for Classification of Alzheimer Disease based on Cortical Thickness and Hippocampal Shape Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Ga-Young; Kim, Jeonghun; Kim, Ju Han; Kim, Kiwoong; Seong, Joon-Kyung

2014-01-01

Mobile healthcare applications are becoming a growing trend. Also, the prevalence of dementia in modern society is showing a steady growing trend. Among degenerative brain diseases that cause dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD) is the most common. The purpose of this study was to identify AD patients using magnetic resonance imaging in the mobile environment. We propose an incremental classification for mobile healthcare systems. Our classification method is based on incremental learning for AD diagnosis and AD prediction using the cortical thickness data and hippocampus shape. We constructed a classifier based on principal component analysis and linear discriminant analysis. We performed initial learning and mobile subject classification. Initial learning is the group learning part in our server. Our smartphone agent implements the mobile classification and shows various results. With use of cortical thickness data analysis alone, the discrimination accuracy was 87.33% (sensitivity 96.49% and specificity 64.33%). When cortical thickness data and hippocampal shape were analyzed together, the achieved accuracy was 87.52% (sensitivity 96.79% and specificity 63.24%). In this paper, we presented a classification method based on online learning for AD diagnosis by employing both cortical thickness data and hippocampal shape analysis data. Our method was implemented on smartphone devices and discriminated AD patients for normal group.

Identification of geostructures of continental crust, particularly as they relate to mineral-resource evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gryc, G. (Principal Investigator); Lathram, E. H.

1972-01-01

The authors have identified the following significant results. As a precursor to the ERTS-1 investigation, the spatial relationship of geostructures seen on Nimbus IDCS photographs to the distribution of mineralized areas in Alaska and western Canada was analyzed to determine the possible metallogenic significance of the geostructures. In Canada, mercury and porphyry molybdenum deposits are closely associated with strong northwest-trending fault systems; the development of mineralized regions seems related to major crustal zones or fractures trending southwestward across the Cordillera from the Precambrian shield. In Alaska, comparison of the northeast- and northwest-trending set of possible crustal structures shown on the Nimbus photo, with the distribution of known mineral deposits suggests a similar relationship. The mineralized region of massive sulfides in Prince William Sound and upper Copper River areas and of porphyry coppers in the Nabesna area forms a broad northeast-trending belt possibly related to the Minto Arch on the Shield. The belt of metalliferous deposits in the western Alaska Range follows a comparable northeast trend. Mercury deposits, suggested by many to be fault-controlled, together with most tin and tungsten deposits, occupy a northeast-trending belt between the Bristol Bay-Mackenzie Bay linear and extensions of a linear along the lower Yukon River. This belt intersects the northwest-trending Canadian belt of similar deposits in the Fairbanks area.

Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

2017-04-01

Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger-)causes vegetation dynamics in most regions globally. More specifically, water availability is the most dominant vegetation driver, being the dominant vegetation driver in 54% of the vegetated surface. Furthermore, our results show that precipitation and soil moisture have prolonged impacts on vegetation in semiarid regions, with up to 10% of additional explained variance on the vegetation dynamics occurring three months later. Finally, hydro-climatic extremes seem to have a remarkable impact on vegetation, since they also explain up to 10% of additional variance of vegetation in certain regions despite their infrequent occurrence. References [1] Papagiannopoulou, C., Miralles, D. G., Verhoest, N. E. C., Dorigo, W. A., and Waegeman, W.: A non-linear Granger causality framework to investigate climate-vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-266, in review, 2016.

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormick, M. P.; Veiga, Robert E.; Chu, William P.

1992-01-01

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.

Detecting trends in academic research from a citation network using network representation learning

PubMed Central

Mori, Junichiro; Ochi, Masanao; Sakata, Ichiro

2018-01-01

Several network features and information retrieval methods have been proposed to elucidate the structure of citation networks and to detect important nodes. However, it is difficult to retrieve information related to trends in an academic field and to detect cutting-edge areas from the citation network. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that detects the trend as the growth direction of a citation network using network representation learning(NRL). We presume that the linear growth of citation network in latent space obtained by NRL is the result of the iterative edge additional process of a citation network. On APS datasets and papers of some domains of the Web of Science, we confirm the existence of trends by observing that an academic field grows in a specific direction linearly in latent space. Next, we calculate each node’s degree of trend-following as an indicator called the intrinsic publication year (IPY). As a result, there is a correlation between the indicator and the number of future citations. Furthermore, a word frequently used in the abstracts of cutting-edge papers (high-IPY paper) is likely to be used often in future publications. These results confirm the validity of the detected trend for predicting citation network growth. PMID:29782521

The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

PubMed Central

Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520

The trend odds model for ordinal data.

PubMed

Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

2013-06-15

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Health Disparities Grants Funded by National Institute on Aging: Trends Between 2000 and 2010

PubMed Central

Kim, Giyeon; DeCoster, Jamie; Huang, Chao-Hui; Parmelee, Patricia

2012-01-01

Purpose of the Study: The present study examined the characteristics of health disparities grants funded by National Institute on Aging (NIA) from 2000 to 2010. Objectives were (a) to examine longitudinal trends in health disparities–related grants funded by NIA and (b) to identify moderators of these trends. Design and Methods: Our primary data source was the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools Expenditures and Results (RePORTER) system. The RePORTER data were merged with data from the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education. General linear models were used to examine the longitudinal trends and how these trends were associated with type of grant and institutional characteristics. Results: NIA funded 825 grants on health disparities between 2000 and 2010, expending approximately 330 million dollars. There was an overall linear increase over time in both the total number of grants and amount of funding, with an outlying spike during 2009. These trends were significantly influenced by several moderators including funding mechanism and type of institution. Implications: The findings highlight NIA’s current efforts to fund health disparities grants to reduce disparities among older adults. Gerontology researchers may find this information very useful for their future grant submissions. PMID:22454392

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China.

PubMed

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei

2015-01-01

The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth's hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Xue, Jie

2015-01-01

The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth’s hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River. PMID:26244113

Comparison of linear, skewed-linear, and proportional hazard models for the analysis of lambing interval in Ripollesa ewes.

PubMed

Casellas, J; Bach, R

2012-06-01

Lambing interval is a relevant reproductive indicator for sheep populations under continuous mating systems, although there is a shortage of selection programs accounting for this trait in the sheep industry. Both the historical assumption of small genetic background and its unorthodox distribution pattern have limited its implementation as a breeding objective. In this manuscript, statistical performances of 3 alternative parametrizations [i.e., symmetric Gaussian mixed linear (GML) model, skew-Gaussian mixed linear (SGML) model, and piecewise Weibull proportional hazard (PWPH) model] have been compared to elucidate the preferred methodology to handle lambing interval data. More specifically, flock-by-flock analyses were performed on 31,986 lambing interval records (257.3 ± 0.2 d) from 6 purebred Ripollesa flocks. Model performances were compared in terms of deviance information criterion (DIC) and Bayes factor (BF). For all flocks, PWPH models were clearly preferred; they generated a reduction of 1,900 or more DIC units and provided BF estimates larger than 100 (i.e., PWPH models against linear models). These differences were reduced when comparing PWPH models with different number of change points for the baseline hazard function. In 4 flocks, only 2 change points were required to minimize the DIC, whereas 4 and 6 change points were needed for the 2 remaining flocks. These differences demonstrated a remarkable degree of heterogeneity across sheep flocks that must be properly accounted for in genetic evaluation models to avoid statistical biases and suboptimal genetic trends. Within this context, all 6 Ripollesa flocks revealed substantial genetic background for lambing interval with heritabilities ranging between 0.13 and 0.19. This study provides the first evidence of the suitability of PWPH models for lambing interval analysis, clearly discarding previous parametrizations focused on mixed linear models.

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.

Duration-dependent effects of clinically relevant oral alendronate doses on cortical bone toughness in beagle dogs

PubMed Central

Burr, David B.; Liu, Ziyue; Allen, Matthew R.

2014-01-01

Bisphosphonates (BPs) have been shown to significantly reduce bone toughness in vertebrae within one year when given at clinical doses to dogs. Although BPs also reduce toughness in cortical bone when given at high doses, their effect on cortical bone material properties when given at clinical doses is less clear. In part, this may be due to the use of small sample sizes that were powered to demonstrate differences in bone mineral density rather than bone’s material properties. Our lab has conducted several studies in which dogs were treated with alendronate at a clinically relevant dose. The goal of this study was to examine these published and unpublished data collectively to determine whether there is a significant time-dependent effect of alendronate on toughness of cortical bone. This analysis seemed particularly relevant given the recent occurrence of atypical femoral fractures in humans. Differences in the toughness of ribs taken from dogs derived from five separate experiments were measured. The dogs were orally administered saline (CON, 1 ml/kg/day) or alendronate (ALN) at a clinical dose (0.2 mg/kg/day). Treatment duration ranged from 3 months to 3 years. Groups were compared using ANOVA, and time trends analyzed with linear regression analysis. Linear regressions of the percent difference in toughness between CON and ALN at each time point revealed a significant reduction in toughness with longer exposure to ALN. The downward trend was primarily driven by a downward trend in post-yield toughness, whereas toughness in the pre-yield region was not changed relative to CON. These data suggest that a longer duration of treatment with clinical doses of ALN results in deterioration of cortical bone toughness in a time-dependent manner. As the duration of treatment is lengthened, the cortical bone exhibits increasingly brittle behavior. This may be important in assessing the role that long-term BP treatments play in the risk of atypical fractures of femoral cortical bone in humans. PMID:25445446

Standard Area Diagrams for Aiding Severity Estimation: Scientometrics, Pathosystems, and Methodological Trends in the Last 25 Years.

PubMed

Del Ponte, Emerson M; Pethybridge, Sarah J; Bock, Clive H; Michereff, Sami J; Machado, Franklin J; Spolti, Piérri

2017-10-01

Standard area diagrams (SAD) have long been used as a tool to aid the estimation of plant disease severity, an essential variable in phytopathometry. Formal validation of SAD was not considered prior to the early 1990s, when considerable effort began to be invested developing SAD and assessing their value for improving accuracy of estimates of disease severity in many pathosystems. Peer-reviewed literature post-1990 was identified, selected, and cataloged in bibliographic software for further scrutiny and extraction of scientometric, pathosystem-related, and methodological-related data. In total, 105 studies (127 SAD) were found and authored by 327 researchers from 10 countries, mainly from Brazil. The six most prolific authors published at least seven studies. The scientific impact of a SAD article, based on annual citations after publication year, was affected by disease significance, the journal's impact factor, and methodological innovation. The reviewed SAD encompassed 48 crops and 103 unique diseases across a range of plant organs. Severity was quantified largely by image analysis software such as QUANT, APS-Assess, or a LI-COR leaf area meter. The most typical SAD comprised five to eight black-and-white drawings of leaf diagrams, with severity increasing nonlinearly. However, there was a trend toward using true-color photographs or stylized representations in a range of color combinations and more linear (equally spaced) increments of severity. A two-step SAD validation approach was used in 78 of 105 studies for which linear regression was the preferred method but a trend toward using Lin's correlation concordance analysis and hypothesis tests to detect the effect of SAD on accuracy was apparent. Reliability measures, when obtained, mainly considered variation among rather than within raters. The implications of the findings and knowledge gaps are discussed. A list of best practices for designing and implementing SAD and a website called SADBank for hosting SAD research data are proposed.

Trends in job satisfaction among German nurses from 1990 to 2012.

PubMed

Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2016-04-01

Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. We used 1990-2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas that of doctors and other health care workers increased by 14.4% and 1%, respectively. The decline for part-time nurses (13%) was more pronounced than that for full-time nurses (3%). At the same time, nurses' pay rose by only 3.8% compared to a 23.8% increase for doctors. The steady decline in nurses' job satisfaction over the last two decades may be attributable to the multiple reforms and associated policy changes that generally disadvantaged nurses. Contributing factors to job satisfaction decline include lower pay and the demanding and strenuous work environment. Irrespective of the reason, health services researchers, leaders, and policy makers should investigate the reasons for this decline given the forecast growth in work load and complexity of care. Supportive policies for nurses would help enhance the quality and sustainability of German health care. © The Author(s) 2015.

Hysterectomy trends in Australia, 2000-2001 to 2013-2014: joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Wilson, Louise F; Pandeya, Nirmala; Mishra, Gita D

2017-10-01

Hysterectomy is a common gynecological procedure, particularly in middle and high income countries. The aim of this paper was to describe and examine hysterectomy trends in Australia from 2000-2001 to 2013-2014. For women aged 25 years and over, data on the number of hysterectomies performed in Australia annually were sourced from the National Hospital and Morbidity Database. Age-specific and age-standardized hysterectomy rates per 10 000 women were estimated with adjustment for hysterectomy prevalence in the population. Using joinpoint regression analysis, we estimated the average annual percentage change over the whole study period (2000-2014) and the annual percentage change for each identified trend line segment. A total of 431 162 hysterectomy procedures were performed between 2000-2001 and 2013-2014; an annual average of 30 797 procedures (for women aged 25+ years). The age-standardized hysterectomy rate, adjusted for underlying hysterectomy prevalence, decreased significantly over the whole study period [average annual percentage change -2.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.5%, -2.2%]. The trend was not linear with one joinpoint detected in 2008-2009. Between 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 there was a significant decrease in incidence (annual percentage change -4.4%; 95% CI -5.2%, -3.7%); from 2008-2009 to 2013-2014 the decrease was minimal and not significantly different from zero (annual percentage change -0.1%; 95% CI -1.7%, 1.5%). A similar change in trend was seen in all age groups. Hysterectomy rates in Australian women aged 25 years and over have declined in the first decade of the 21st century. However, in the last 5 years, rates appear to have stabilized. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

The changes in the frequency of daily precipitation in Urmia Lake basin, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salehi Bavil, Sepideh; Zeinalzadeh, Kamran; Hessari, Behzad

2017-06-01

Urmia Lake, as one of the most valuable saline ecosystems in the world, has faced a sharp drop in the water level in recent years. The trend studies of climatic parameters can be effective in identifying the responsible factors and managing this crisis. This research investigated the frequency trend of daily precipitation in the ranges of less than 5 mm, 5-10 mm, 10-15 mm, 15-20 mm, and more than 20 mm in the Urmia Lake basin. The trend was assessed using Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho and linear regression tests on 60 stations during a period of 30 years (1981 to 2011). The results showed that in all the three tests, the frequency of daily precipitation of less than 5 mm had a significant increase at 1% level. The 5-10 mm range displayed no significant trend, while the 10-15 mm range showed a significantly decreasing trend. The frequency in the 15-20 mm and above 20 mm ranges showed an insignificant falling trend. The analysis also indicated jumps in 1996 and 1999 (almost coinciding with the sharp drop in the lake's water level). In other words, the frequency trends of daily precipitation with small amounts (as a result, high evapotranspiration loss) were increasing and with large amounts were decreasing. This can be a contributor to reduced run-off and, hence, decreased water entering the lake. The results emphasize the need for changes in the management and consumption of water resources in the basin, in order to adapt to the climatic change.

20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

Albumin, bilirubin, uric acid and cancer risk: results from a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Graf, Mirja E; Schübel, Ruth; Freisling, Heinz; Johnson, Theron; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-11-07

It has long been proposed that albumin, bilirubin and uric acid may inhibit cancer development due to their anti-oxidative properties. However, there is a lack of population-based studies on blood levels of these molecules and cancer risk. Associations between pre-diagnostic serum albumin, bilirubin and uric acid and the risks of common cancers as well as cancer death in the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. A case-cohort sample including a random subcohort (n=2739) and all incident cases of breast (n=627), prostate (n=554), colorectal (n=256), and lung cancer (n=195) as well as cancer death (n=761) that occurred between baseline (1994-1998) and 2009 was used. Albumin levels were inversely associated with breast cancer risk (hazard ratio Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1 (95% CI): 0.71 (0.51, 0.99), P linear trend =0.004) and overall cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.64 (0.48, 0.86), P linear trend <0.001) after multivariable adjustment. Uric acid levels were also inversely associated with breast cancer risk (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.72 (0.53, 0.99), P linear trend =0.043) and cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.75 (0.58, 0.98), P linear trend =0.09). There were no significant associations between albumin or uric acid and prostate, lung and colorectal cancer. Serum bilirubin was not associated with any cancer end point. The present findings indicate that higher levels of albumin and uric acid are related to lower risks of breast cancer and cancer mortality. Further studies are needed to assess whether the observed associations are causal.

Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

2016-04-01

In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

On the Impact of a Quadratic Acceleration Term in the Analysis of Position Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogusz, Janusz; Klos, Anna; Bos, Machiel Simon; Hunegnaw, Addisu; Teferle, Felix Norman

2016-04-01

The analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series generally assumes that each of the coordinate component series is described by the sum of a linear rate (velocity) and various periodic terms. The residuals, the deviations between the fitted model and the observations, are then a measure of the epoch-to-epoch scatter and have been used for the analysis of the stochastic character (noise) of the time series. Often the parameters of interest in GNSS position time series are the velocities and their associated uncertainties, which have to be determined with the highest reliability. It is clear that not all GNSS position time series follow this simple linear behaviour. Therefore, we have added an acceleration term in the form of a quadratic polynomial function to the model in order to better describe the non-linear motion in the position time series. This non-linear motion could be a response to purely geophysical processes, for example, elastic rebound of the Earth's crust due to ice mass loss in Greenland, artefacts due to deficiencies in bias mitigation models, for example, of the GNSS satellite and receiver antenna phase centres, or any combination thereof. In this study we have simulated 20 time series with different stochastic characteristics such as white, flicker or random walk noise of length of 23 years. The noise amplitude was assumed at 1 mm/y-/4. Then, we added the deterministic part consisting of a linear trend of 20 mm/y (that represents the averaged horizontal velocity) and accelerations ranging from minus 0.6 to plus 0.6 mm/y2. For all these data we estimated the noise parameters with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) using the Hector software package without taken into account the non-linear term. In this way we set the benchmark to then investigate how the noise properties and velocity uncertainty may be affected by any un-modelled, non-linear term. The velocities and their uncertainties versus the accelerations for different types of noise are determined. Furthermore, we have selected 40 globally distributed stations that have a clear non-linear behaviour from two different International GNSS Service (IGS) analysis centers: JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and BLT (British Isles continuous GNSS Facility and University of Luxembourg Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring (TIGA) Analysis Center). We obtained maximum accelerations of -1.8±1.2 mm2/y and -4.5±3.3 mm2/y for the horizontal and vertical components, respectively. The noise analysis tests have shown that the addition of the non-linear term has significantly whitened the power spectra of the position time series, i.e. shifted the spectral index from flicker towards white noise.

Heart rate variability in normal and pathological sleep.

PubMed

Tobaldini, Eleonora; Nobili, Lino; Strada, Silvia; Casali, Karina R; Braghiroli, Alberto; Montano, Nicola

2013-10-16

Sleep is a physiological process involving different biological systems, from molecular to organ level; its integrity is essential for maintaining health and homeostasis in human beings. Although in the past sleep has been considered a state of quiet, experimental and clinical evidences suggest a noteworthy activation of different biological systems during sleep. A key role is played by the autonomic nervous system (ANS), whose modulation regulates cardiovascular functions during sleep onset and different sleep stages. Therefore, an interest on the evaluation of autonomic cardiovascular control in health and disease is growing by means of linear and non-linear heart rate variability (HRV) analyses. The application of classical tools for ANS analysis, such as HRV during physiological sleep, showed that the rapid eye movement (REM) stage is characterized by a likely sympathetic predominance associated with a vagal withdrawal, while the opposite trend is observed during non-REM sleep. More recently, the use of non-linear tools, such as entropy-derived indices, have provided new insight on the cardiac autonomic regulation, revealing for instance changes in the cardiovascular complexity during REM sleep, supporting the hypothesis of a reduced capability of the cardiovascular system to deal with stress challenges. Interestingly, different HRV tools have been applied to characterize autonomic cardiac control in different pathological conditions, from neurological sleep disorders to sleep disordered breathing (SDB). In summary, linear and non-linear analysis of HRV are reliable approaches to assess changes of autonomic cardiac modulation during sleep both in health and diseases. The use of these tools could provide important information of clinical and prognostic relevance.

Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, Joel A.; Somor, Andrew J.; Harpold, Adrian A.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Breshears, David D.; Troch, Peter A.; Gochis, David J.; Scott, Russell L.; Meddens, Arjan J. H.; Brooks, Paul D.

2015-12-01

Recent bark beetle epidemics have caused regional-scale tree mortality in many snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments of western North America. Initial expectations of increased streamflow have not been supported by observations, and the basin-scale response of annual streamflow is largely unknown. Here we quantified annual streamflow responses during the decade following tree die-off in eight infested catchments in the Colorado River headwaters and one nearby control catchment. We employed three alternative empirical methods: (i) double-mass comparison between impacted and control catchments, (ii) runoff ratio comparison before and after die-off, and (iii) time-trend analysis using climate-driven linear models. In contrast to streamflow increases predicted by historical paired catchment studies and recent modeling, we did not detect streamflow changes in most basins following die-off, while one basin consistently showed decreased streamflow. The three analysis methods produced generally consistent results, with time-trend analysis showing precipitation was the strongest predictor of streamflow variability (R2 = 74-96%). Time-trend analysis revealed post-die-off streamflow decreased in three catchments by 11-29%, with no change in the other five catchments. Although counter to initial expectations, these results are consistent with increased transpiration by surviving vegetation and the growing body of literature documenting increased snow sublimation and evaporation from the subcanopy following die-off in water-limited, snow-dominated forests. The observations presented here challenge the widespread expectation that streamflow will increase following beetle-induced forest die-off and highlight the need to better understand the processes driving hydrologic response to forest disturbance.

Comments on "Long-Term Variations of Exospheric Temperature Inferred From foF1 Observations: A Comparison to ISR Ti Trend Estimates" by Perrone and Mikhailov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shun-Rong; Holt, John M.; Erickson, Philip J.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.

2018-05-01

Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) and Mikhailov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023909) have recently examined thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends using a data set of four thermospheric parameters (Tex, [O], [N2], and [O2]) and solar EUV flux. These data were derived from one single ionospheric parameter, foF1, using a nonlinear fitting procedure involving a photochemical model for the F1 peak. The F1 peak is assumed at the transition height ht with the linear recombination for atomic oxygen ions being equal to the quadratic recombination for molecular ions. This procedure has a number of obvious problems that are not addressed or not sufficiently justified. The potentially large ambiguities and biases in derived parameters make them unsuitable for precise quantitative ionospheric and thermospheric long-term trend studies. Furthermore, we assert that Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) conclusions regarding incoherent scatter radar (ISR) ion temperature analysis for long-term trend studies are incorrect and in particular are based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the incoherent scatter radar measurement process. Large ISR data sets remain a consistent and statistically robust method for determining long term secular plasma temperature trends.

Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

2015-04-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

Prediction models for CO2 emission in Malaysia using best subsets regression and multi-linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, C. H.; Matjafri, M. Z.; Lim, H. S.

2015-10-01

This paper presents the prediction models which analyze and compute the CO2 emission in Malaysia. Each prediction model for CO2 emission will be analyzed based on three main groups which is transportation, electricity and heat production as well as residential buildings and commercial and public services. The prediction models were generated using data obtained from World Bank Open Data. Best subset method will be used to remove irrelevant data and followed by multi linear regression to produce the prediction models. From the results, high R-square (prediction) value was obtained and this implies that the models are reliable to predict the CO2 emission by using specific data. In addition, the CO2 emissions from these three groups are forecasted using trend analysis plots for observation purpose.

The Evolution of Dental Journals from 2003 to 2012: A Bibliometric Analysis

PubMed Central

Jayaratne, Yasas Shri Nalaka; Zwahlen, Roger Arthur

2015-01-01

Bibliometrics are a set of methods, which can be used to analyze academic literature quantitatively and its changes over time. The objectives of this study were 1) to evaluate trends related to academic performance of dental journals from 2003 to 2012 using bibliometric indices, and 2) monitor the changes of the five dental journals with the highest and lowest impact factor (IF) published in 2003. Data for the subject category "Dentistry, Oral Surgery & Medicine" was retrieved from the Journal Citation Reports (JCR) published from 2003 to 2012. Linear regressions analysis was used to determine statistical trends over the years with each bibliometric indicator as the dependent variable and the JCR year as the predictor variable. Statistically significant rise in the total number of dental journals, the number of all articles with the steepest rise observed for research articles, the number of citations and the aggregate IF was observed from 2003 to 2012. The analysis of the five top and five bottom-tire dental journals revealed a rise in IF however, with a wide variation in relation to the magnitude of this rise. Although the IF of the top five journals remained relatively constant, the percentile ranks of the four lowest ranking journals in 2003 increased significantly with the sharpest rise being noted for the British Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery. This study revealed significant growth of dental literature in absolute terms, as well as upward trends for most of the citation-based bibliometric indices from 2003 to 2012. PMID:25781486

Self-organizing map network-based precipitation regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau and regional precipitation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan

2017-12-01

A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.

The evolution of dental journals from 2003 to 2012: a bibliometric analysis.

PubMed

Jayaratne, Yasas Shri Nalaka; Zwahlen, Roger Arthur

2015-01-01

Bibliometrics are a set of methods, which can be used to analyze academic literature quantitatively and its changes over time. The objectives of this study were 1) to evaluate trends related to academic performance of dental journals from 2003 to 2012 using bibliometric indices, and 2) monitor the changes of the five dental journals with the highest and lowest impact factor (IF) published in 2003. Data for the subject category "Dentistry, Oral Surgery & Medicine" was retrieved from the Journal Citation Reports (JCR) published from 2003 to 2012. Linear regressions analysis was used to determine statistical trends over the years with each bibliometric indicator as the dependent variable and the JCR year as the predictor variable. Statistically significant rise in the total number of dental journals, the number of all articles with the steepest rise observed for research articles, the number of citations and the aggregate IF was observed from 2003 to 2012. The analysis of the five top and five bottom-tire dental journals revealed a rise in IF however, with a wide variation in relation to the magnitude of this rise. Although the IF of the top five journals remained relatively constant, the percentile ranks of the four lowest ranking journals in 2003 increased significantly with the sharpest rise being noted for the British Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery. This study revealed significant growth of dental literature in absolute terms, as well as upward trends for most of the citation-based bibliometric indices from 2003 to 2012.

Quantifying the degree of persistence in random amoeboid motion based on the Hurst exponent of fractional Brownian motion.

PubMed

Makarava, Natallia; Menz, Stephan; Theves, Matthias; Huisinga, Wilhelm; Beta, Carsten; Holschneider, Matthias

2014-10-01

Amoebae explore their environment in a random way, unless external cues like, e.g., nutrients, bias their motion. Even in the absence of cues, however, experimental cell tracks show some degree of persistence. In this paper, we analyzed individual cell tracks in the framework of a linear mixed effects model, where each track is modeled by a fractional Brownian motion, i.e., a Gaussian process exhibiting a long-term correlation structure superposed on a linear trend. The degree of persistence was quantified by the Hurst exponent of fractional Brownian motion. Our analysis of experimental cell tracks of the amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum showed a persistent movement for the majority of tracks. Employing a sliding window approach, we estimated the variations of the Hurst exponent over time, which allowed us to identify points in time, where the correlation structure was distorted ("outliers"). Coarse graining of track data via down-sampling allowed us to identify the dependence of persistence on the spatial scale. While one would expect the (mode of the) Hurst exponent to be constant on different temporal scales due to the self-similarity property of fractional Brownian motion, we observed a trend towards stronger persistence for the down-sampled cell tracks indicating stronger persistence on larger time scales.

Estimating population trends with a linear model: Technical comments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

Detecting drought and human-induced land degradation using time series trend analysis in Northeastern Brazil drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariano, D. A.; Costa dos Santos, C. A.; Wardlow, B.

2017-12-01

Land degradation (LD) is one of the most catastrophic outcomes of long-lasting drought events and anthropogenic activities. Assessing climate and human-induced impacts on land can provide information for decision makers to mitigate the effects associated to thereof. The Northeastern region of Brazil (NEB) is the most populous dryland on the planet, making it a highly vulnerable ecosystem especially when considering the lingering drought that started in 2012. The present work consisted on detecting trends in biomass [gross primary productivity (GPP)] and albedo anomalies as indicators of land degradation in NEB. Both GPP and albedo data were derived from MODIS/Terra sensor at 8-day temporal and 500m spatial resolutions. For precipitation z-scores, we relied on CHIRPS-v2 10-day temporal and 5km spatial resolution data. For detecting trends, we applied linear regressions on time series of MODIS GPP and albedo images. Trend analysis was performed for the periods ranging from 2002-2012 (no severe droughts) and 2002-2016 (includes the last drought). The first analysis highlights the human-induced LD whereas the last detected drought induced LD. About 4.5% of the area undergone human-induced degradation whereas drought was responsible for 13%, although, not mutually exclusive. As reported in the literature and official data, grazing intensification was the main driver for human-induced LD. GPP trends were more pronounced and had a stronger signal than albedo, thus, is considered more efficient on mapping LD. Finally, the effects of LD on evapotranspiration anomalies [evaporative stress index (ESI)] were assessed as a way to link it to the hydrological cycle. GPP and ET relations are very site-specific; thus, we found that these variables are highly correlated in regions where LD was intense. We conclude that, in fact, drought led to severe LD in NEB and, the degradation cycle has a positive feedback derived from ET reduction resulting in an increased net moisture deficit. The study warns of the desertification risk that NEB is facing and the need for the authorities to take action to stop these trends.

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

PubMed

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Bayesian spatiotemporal crash frequency models with mixture components for space-time interactions.

PubMed

Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Zhang, Yongping; Cao, Zhong

2018-03-01

The traffic safety research has developed spatiotemporal models to explore the variations in the spatial pattern of crash risk over time. Many studies observed notable benefits associated with the inclusion of spatial and temporal correlation and their interactions. However, the safety literature lacks sufficient research for the comparison of different temporal treatments and their interaction with spatial component. This study developed four spatiotemporal models with varying complexity due to the different temporal treatments such as (I) linear time trend; (II) quadratic time trend; (III) Autoregressive-1 (AR-1); and (IV) time adjacency. Moreover, the study introduced a flexible two-component mixture for the space-time interaction which allows greater flexibility compared to the traditional linear space-time interaction. The mixture component allows the accommodation of global space-time interaction as well as the departures from the overall spatial and temporal risk patterns. This study performed a comprehensive assessment of mixture models based on the diverse criteria pertaining to goodness-of-fit, cross-validation and evaluation based on in-sample data for predictive accuracy of crash estimates. The assessment of model performance in terms of goodness-of-fit clearly established the superiority of the time-adjacency specification which was evidently more complex due to the addition of information borrowed from neighboring years, but this addition of parameters allowed significant advantage at posterior deviance which subsequently benefited overall fit to crash data. The Base models were also developed to study the comparison between the proposed mixture and traditional space-time components for each temporal model. The mixture models consistently outperformed the corresponding Base models due to the advantages of much lower deviance. For cross-validation comparison of predictive accuracy, linear time trend model was adjudged the best as it recorded the highest value of log pseudo marginal likelihood (LPML). Four other evaluation criteria were considered for typical validation using the same data for model development. Under each criterion, observed crash counts were compared with three types of data containing Bayesian estimated, normal predicted, and model replicated ones. The linear model again performed the best in most scenarios except one case of using model replicated data and two cases involving prediction without including random effects. These phenomena indicated the mediocre performance of linear trend when random effects were excluded for evaluation. This might be due to the flexible mixture space-time interaction which can efficiently absorb the residual variability escaping from the predictable part of the model. The comparison of Base and mixture models in terms of prediction accuracy further bolstered the superiority of the mixture models as the mixture ones generated more precise estimated crash counts across all four models, suggesting that the advantages associated with mixture component at model fit were transferable to prediction accuracy. Finally, the residual analysis demonstrated the consistently superior performance of random effect models which validates the importance of incorporating the correlation structures to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Publications Over the Past 16 Years.

PubMed

Mimouni, Michael; Cismariu-Potash, Keren; Ratmansky, Motti; Shaklai, Sharon; Amir, Hagay; Mimouni-Bloch, Aviva

2016-06-01

To test the hypothesis that the number of publications in the field of physical medicine and rehabilitation (PMR) has increased over the last 16 years in a linear fashion, and to compare the trends in publication between the pediatric and adult literature. We evaluated all MEDLINE articles from January 1, 1998, to December 31, 2013, using Medical Subject Headings categories of rehabilitation. An age filter separated adult and pediatric articles. We divided articles into those with a low level of scientific evidence such as letters and editorials, and those with a high level of evidence such as controlled trials and meta-analyses. We used regression analysis to evaluate the effect of the year of publication on the number of publications of each type. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. MEDLINE reported a total of 98,501 adult publications and 30,895 pediatric publications during the evaluated period. There was a significant linear increase in the total number of publications in adult and pediatric rehabilitation publications with multiplication factors of 3.3 and 2.9, respectively. Importantly, publications with a high level of evidence showed larger multiplication factors compared with those with a low level of evidence (5.5 and 5.1 vs 2.1 and 2.0) for the adult and pediatric literature. The number of publications in the PMR field, especially those with a high level of scientific evidence, has increased linearly over the years, reflecting the rapid evolution of both adult and pediatric PMR. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series

PubMed Central

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha−1 year−1 in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale. PMID:24205280

Linear friction weld process monitoring of fixture cassette deformations using empirical mode decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, O. J.; Gibson, C.; Wilson, P.; Lohse, N.; Popov, A. A.

2015-10-01

Due to its inherent advantages, linear friction welding is a solid-state joining process of increasing importance to the aerospace, automotive, medical and power generation equipment industries. Tangential oscillations and forge stroke during the burn-off phase of the joining process introduce essential dynamic forces, which can also be detrimental to the welding process. Since burn-off is a critical phase in the manufacturing stage, process monitoring is fundamental for quality and stability control purposes. This study aims to improve workholding stability through the analysis of fixture cassette deformations. Methods and procedures for process monitoring are developed and implemented in a fail-or-pass assessment system for fixture cassette deformations during the burn-off phase. Additionally, the de-noised signals are compared to results from previous production runs. The observed deformations as a consequence of the forces acting on the fixture cassette are measured directly during the welding process. Data on the linear friction-welding machine are acquired and de-noised using empirical mode decomposition, before the burn-off phase is extracted. This approach enables a direct, objective comparison of the signal features with trends from previous successful welds. The capacity of the whole process monitoring system is validated and demonstrated through the analysis of a large number of signals obtained from welding experiments.

Algorithmic Trading with Developmental and Linear Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Garnett; Banzhaf, Wolfgang

A developmental co-evolutionary genetic programming approach (PAM DGP) and a standard linear genetic programming (LGP) stock trading systemare applied to a number of stocks across market sectors. Both GP techniques were found to be robust to market fluctuations and reactive to opportunities associated with stock price rise and fall, with PAMDGP generating notably greater profit in some stock trend scenarios. Both algorithms were very accurate at buying to achieve profit and selling to protect assets, while exhibiting bothmoderate trading activity and the ability to maximize or minimize investment as appropriate. The content of the trading rules produced by both algorithms are also examined in relation to stock price trend scenarios.

Estimating the intensity of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayan Mangku, I.

2017-10-01

In this paper we survey some results on estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend. We do not assume any parametric form for the cyclic component of the intensity function, except that it is periodic. Moreover, we consider the case when there is only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded interval. The considered estimators are weakly and strongly consistent when the size of the observation interval indefinitely expands. Asymptotic approximations to the bias and variance of those estimators are presented.

Is Perruchet's dissociation between eyeblink conditioned responding and outcome expectancy evidence for two learning systems?

PubMed

Weidemann, Gabrielle; Tangen, Jason M; Lovibond, Peter F; Mitchell, Christopher J

2009-04-01

P. Perruchet (1985b) showed a double dissociation of conditioned responses (CRs) and expectancy for an airpuff unconditioned stimulus (US) in a 50% partial reinforcement schedule in human eyeblink conditioning. In the Perruchet effect, participants show an increase in CRs and a concurrent decrease in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of reinforced trials; conversely, participants show a decrease in CRs and a concurrent increase in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of nonreinforced trials. Three eyeblink conditioning experiments investigated whether the linear trend in eyeblink CRs in the Perruchet effect is a result of changes in associative strength of the conditioned stimulus (CS), US sensitization, or learning the precise timing of the US. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is not the result of US sensitization. Experiment 3 showed that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is present with both a fixed and a variable CS-US interval and so is not the result of learning the precise timing of the US. The results are difficult to reconcile with a single learning process model of associative learning in which expectancy mediates CRs. Copyright (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Large Amplitude Oscillatory Shear (LAOS) of Acrylic Emulsion-Based Pressure Sensitive Adhesives (PSAs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sipei; Nakatani, Alan; Griffith, William

Large Amplitude Oscillatory Shear (LAOS) testing has recently taken on renewed interest in the rheological community. It is a very useful tool to probe the viscoelastic response of materials in the non-linear regime. Much of the discussion on polymers in the LAOS field has focused on melts in or near the terminal flow regime. Here we present a LAOS study conducted on a commercial rheometer for acrylic emulsion-based pressure sensitive adhesive (PSA) films in the plateau regime. The films behaved qualitatively similar over an oscillation frequency range of 0.5-5 rad/s. From Fourier transform analysis, the fifth or even the seventh order harmonic could be observed at large applied strains. From stress decomposition analysis or Lissajous curves, inter-cycle elastic softening, or type I behavior, was observed for all films as the strain increases, while intra-cycle strain hardening occurred at strains in the LAOS regime. Overall, as acid content increases, it was found that the trend in elasticity under large applied strains agreed very well with the trend in cohesive strength of the films.

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is therefore better to use the NCEP-CFSR dataset than the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets when discussing trends in the SAH.

Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

2017-04-01

In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

Wavelet Analyses of Oil Prices, USD Variations and Impact on Logistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melek, M.; Tokgozlu, A.; Aslan, Z.

2009-07-01

This paper is related with temporal variations of historical oil prices and Dollar and Euro in Turkey. Daily data based on OECD and Central Bank of Turkey records beginning from 1946 has been considered. 1D-continuous wavelets and wavelet packets analysis techniques have been applied on data. Wavelet techniques help to detect abrupt changing's, increasing and decreasing trends of data. Estimation of variables has been presented by using linear regression estimation techniques. The results of this study have been compared with the small and large scale effects. Transportation costs of track show a similar variation with fuel prices. The second part of the paper is related with estimation of imports, exports, costs, total number of vehicles and annual variations by considering temporal variation of oil prices and Dollar currency in Turkey. Wavelet techniques offer a user friendly methodology to interpret some local effects on increasing trend of imports and exports data.

Determination of minimum suction level necessary for field dental units.

PubMed

Charlton, David G

2010-04-01

A significant problem with most field dental units is that their suction is too weak to effectively remove debris from the mouth. The purpose of this study was to determine the minimum clinically acceptable suction level for routine dentistry. A vacuum pump was connected to a high-volume dental evacuation line in a simulated clinical setting and different suction airflow rates were evaluated by nine evaluator dentists for their capability to effectively remove amalgam debris and water. Airflow levels were rated as "clinically acceptable" or "clinically unacceptable" by each evaluator. Data were analyzed using a chi2 test for trend. Analysis indicated a significant linear trend between airflow and ratings (p < 0.0001). The first airflow level considered by all evaluators as producing clinically acceptable suction was 4.5 standard cubic feet per minute (0.127 standard cubic meters per minute). This value should be the minimum level required for all military field dental units.

Major Crustal Fault Zone Trends and Their Relation to Mineral Belts in the North-Central Great Basin, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, Brian D.; Sampson, Jay A.; Williams, Jackie M.

2007-01-01

The Great Basin physiographic province covers a large part of the western United States and contains one of the world's leading gold-producing areas, the Carlin Trend. In the Great Basin, many sedimentary-rock-hosted disseminated gold deposits occur along such linear mineral-occurrence trends. The distribution and genesis of these deposits is not fully understood, but most models indicate that regional tectonic structures play an important role in their spatial distribution. Over 100 magnetotelluric (MT) soundings were acquired between 1994 and 2001 by the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate crustal structures that may underlie the linear trends in north-central Nevada. MT sounding data were used to map changes in electrical resistivity as a function of depth that are related to subsurface lithologic and structural variations. Two-dimensional (2-D) resistivity modeling of the MT data reveals primarily northerly and northeasterly trending narrow 2-D conductors (1 to 30 ohm-m) extending to mid-crustal depths (5-20 km) that are interpreted to be major crustal fault zones. There are also a few westerly and northwesterly trending 2-D conductors. However, the great majority of the inferred crustal fault zones mapped using MT are perpendicular or oblique to the generally accepted trends. The correlation of strike of three crustal fault zones with the strike of the Carlin and Getchell trends and the Alligator Ridge district suggests they may have been the root fluid flow pathways that fed faults and fracture networks at shallower levels where gold precipitated in favorable host rocks. The abundant northeasterly crustal structures that do not correlate with the major trends may be structures that are open to fluid flow at the present time.

Temporal variability in wind-wave climate and its validation with ESSO-NIOT wave atlas for the head Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Anindita; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.

2017-08-01

The head Bay region bordering the northern Bay of Bengal is a densely populated area with a complex geomorphologic setting, and highly vulnerable to extreme water levels along with other factors like sea level rise and impact of tropical cyclones. The influence of climate change on wind-wave regime from this region of Bay of Bengal is not known well and that requires special attention, and there is a need to perform its long-term assessment for societal benefits. This study provides a comprehensive analysis on the temporal variability in domain averaged wind speed, significant wave height (SWH) utilizing satellite altimeter data (1992-2012) and mean wave period using ECMWF reanalysis products ERA-Interim (1992-2012) and ERA-20C (1992-2010) over this region. The SWH derived from WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model along with the ERA-Interim reanalysis supplements the observed variability in satellite altimeter observations. Further, the study performs an extensive error estimation of SWH and mean wave period with ESSO-NIOT wave atlas that shows a high degree of under-estimation in the wave atlas mean wave period. Annual mean and wind speed maxima from altimeter show an increasing trend, and to a lesser extent in the SWH. Interestingly, the estimated trend is higher for maxima compared to the mean conditions. Analysis of decadal variability exhibits an increased frequency of higher waves in the present decade compared to the past. Linear trend analysis show significant upswing in spatially averaged ERA-20C mean wave period, whereas the noticed variations are marginal in the ERA-Interim data. A separate trend analysis for the wind-seas, swell wave heights and period from ERA-20C decipher the fact that distant swells governs the local wind-wave climatology over the head Bay region, and over time the swell activity have increased in this region.

Validation of a Video Analysis Software Package for Quantifying Movement Velocity in Resistance Exercises.

PubMed

Sañudo, Borja; Rueda, David; Pozo-Cruz, Borja Del; de Hoyo, Moisés; Carrasco, Luis

2016-10-01

Sañudo, B, Rueda, D, del Pozo-Cruz, B, de Hoyo, M, and Carrasco, L. Validation of a video analysis software package for quantifying movement velocity in resistance exercises. J Strength Cond Res 30(10): 2934-2941, 2016-The aim of this study was to establish the validity of a video analysis software package in measuring mean propulsive velocity (MPV) and the maximal velocity during bench press. Twenty-one healthy males (21 ± 1 year) with weight training experience were recruited, and the MPV and the maximal velocity of the concentric phase (Vmax) were compared with a linear position transducer system during a standard bench press exercise. Participants performed a 1 repetition maximum test using the supine bench press exercise. The testing procedures involved the simultaneous assessment of bench press propulsive velocity using 2 kinematic (linear position transducer and semi-automated tracking software) systems. High Pearson's correlation coefficients for MPV and Vmax between both devices (r = 0.473 to 0.993) were observed. The intraclass correlation coefficients for barbell velocity data and the kinematic data obtained from video analysis were high (>0.79). In addition, the low coefficients of variation indicate that measurements had low variability. Finally, Bland-Altman plots with the limits of agreement of the MPV and Vmax with different loads showed a negative trend, which indicated that the video analysis had higher values than the linear transducer. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that the software used for the video analysis was an easy to use and cost-effective tool with a very high degree of concurrent validity. This software can be used to evaluate changes in velocity of training load in resistance training, which may be important for the prescription and monitoring of training programmes.

Parameter selection with the Hotelling observer in linear iterative image reconstruction for breast tomosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Sean D.; Roth, Jacob; Zimmerman, Cole; Reiser, Ingrid; Sidky, Emil Y.; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-03-01

In this work we investigate an efficient implementation of a region-of-interest (ROI) based Hotelling observer (HO) in the context of parameter optimization for detection of a rod signal at two orientations in linear iterative image reconstruction for DBT. Our preliminary results suggest that ROI-HO performance trends may be efficiently estimated by modeling only the 2D plane perpendicular to the detector and containing the X-ray source trajectory. In addition, the ROI-HO is seen to exhibit orientation dependent trends in detectability as a function of the regularization strength employed in reconstruction. To further investigate the ROI-HO performance in larger 3D system models, we present and validate an iterative methodology for calculating the ROI-HO. Lastly, we present a real data study investigating the correspondence between ROI-HO performance trends and signal conspicuity. Conspicuity of signals in real data reconstructions is seen to track well with trends in ROI-HO detectability. In particular, we observe orientation dependent conspicuity matching the orientation dependent detectability of the ROI-HO.

Epidemiology of imported malaria among children and young adults in Barcelona (1990-2008)

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Increasing international travel and migration is producing changes in trends in infectious diseases, especially in children from many European cities. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology and determine the trends of imported malaria in patients under 20 years old in the city of Barcelona, Spain, during an 18-year period. Methods The study included malaria cases that were laboratory confirmed and reported to the malaria register at the Public Health Agency of Barcelona from 1990 to 2008, residing in Barcelona and less than 20 years old. Patients were classified as natives (born in Spain) or immigrants. Differences in the distribution of demographic, clinical characteristics, and incidence per 100,000 person-year evolution were analysed. Natives and immigrants were compared by logistic regression by calculating the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and Chi-square for a linear trend (p < 0.05). Results Of the total 174 cases, 143 (82.1%) were immigrants, 100 (57.5%) were female, 121 (69.5%) Plasmodium falciparum, and 108 (62.1%) were visiting friends and relatives (VFR) as the reason for travel. Among the immigrants, 99 (67.8%) were from Equatorial Guinea. Immigrant cases more frequently travelled to Africa than natives (p = 0.02). The factors associated with imported malaria among immigrant residents was travelling for VFR (OR: 6.2 CI 1.9-20.2) and age 15-19 (OR: 3.7 CI 1-13.3). The incidence increased from 1990 to 1999 (p < 0.001) and decreased from 2000 to 2008 (p = 0.01), although the global linear trend was not statistically significant (p = 0.41). The fatality rate was 0.5%. Conclusions The majority of cases of malaria in population less than 20 years in Barcelona were immigrants, travelling to Africa for VFR and Plasmodium falciparum was most frequently detected. The trend analysis of the entire study period did not show a statistically significant decline. It is recommended to be aware of malaria, especially among children of immigrants who travel to their parent's home country for VFR. Better access to pre travel advice should be provided. PMID:22118531

Epidemiology of imported malaria among children and young adults in Barcelona (1990-2008).

PubMed

Garcia-Villarrubia, Mireia; Millet, Juan-Pablo; de Olalla, Patricia Garcia; Gascón, Joaquim; Fumadó, Victoria; i Prat, Jordi Gómez; Treviño, Begoña; Pinazo, María-Jesús; Cabezos, Juan; Muñoz, José; Zarzuela, Francesc; Caylà, Joan A

2011-11-25

Increasing international travel and migration is producing changes in trends in infectious diseases, especially in children from many European cities. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology and determine the trends of imported malaria in patients under 20 years old in the city of Barcelona, Spain, during an 18-year period. The study included malaria cases that were laboratory confirmed and reported to the malaria register at the Public Health Agency of Barcelona from 1990 to 2008, residing in Barcelona and less than 20 years old. Patients were classified as natives (born in Spain) or immigrants. Differences in the distribution of demographic, clinical characteristics, and incidence per 100,000 person-year evolution were analysed. Natives and immigrants were compared by logistic regression by calculating the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and Chi-square for a linear trend (p<0.05). Of the total 174 cases, 143 (82.1%) were immigrants, 100 (57.5%) were female, 121 (69.5%) Plasmodium falciparum, and 108 (62.1%) were visiting friends and relatives (VFR) as the reason for travel. Among the immigrants, 99 (67.8%) were from Equatorial Guinea. Immigrant cases more frequently travelled to Africa than natives (p=0.02). The factors associated with imported malaria among immigrant residents was travelling for VFR (OR: 6.2 CI 1.9-20.2) and age 15-19 (OR: 3.7 CI 1-13.3). The incidence increased from 1990 to 1999 (p<0.001) and decreased from 2000 to 2008 (p=0.01), although the global linear trend was not statistically significant (p=0.41). The fatality rate was 0.5%. The majority of cases of malaria in population less than 20 years in Barcelona were immigrants, travelling to Africa for VFR and Plasmodium falciparum was most frequently detected. The trend analysis of the entire study period did not show a statistically significant decline. It is recommended to be aware of malaria, especially among children of immigrants who travel to their parent's home country for VFR. Better access to pre travel advice should be provided.

Trends in lipid profiles and descriptive characteristics of U.S. adults with and without diabetes and cholesterol-lowering medication use-National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2012, United States.

PubMed

Mercado, Carla I; Gregg, Edward; Gillespie, Cathleen; Loustalot, Fleetwood

2018-01-01

With a cholesterol-lowering focus for diabetic adults and in the age of polypharmacy, it is important to understand how lipid profile levels differ among those with and without diabetes. Investigate the means, differences, and trends in lipid profile measures [TC, total cholesterol; LDL-c, low-density lipoprotein; HDL-c, high-density lipoprotein; and TG, triglycerides] among US adults by diabetes status and cholesterol-lowering medication. Population number and proportion of adults aged ≥21 years with diabetes and taking cholesterol-lowering medication were estimated using data on 10,384 participants from NHANES 2003-2012. Age-standardized means, trends, and differences in lipid profile measures were estimated by diabetes status and cholesterol medication use. For trends and differences, linear regression analysis were used adjusted for age, gender, and race/ethnicity. Among diabetic adults, 52% were taking cholesterol-lowering medication compared to the 14% taking cholesterol-lowering medication without diabetes. Although diabetic adults had significantly lower TC and LDL-c levels than non-diabetic adults [% difference (95% confidence interval): TC = -5.2% (-6.8 --3.5), LDL-c = -8.0% (-10.4 --5.5)], the percent difference was greater among adults taking cholesterol medication [TC = -8.0% (-10.3 --5.7); LDL-c = -13.7% (-17.1 --10.2)] than adults not taking cholesterol medication [TC = -3.5% (-5.2 --1.6); LDL-c = -4.3% (-7.1 --1.5)] (interaction p-value: TC = <0.001; LDL-c = <0.001). From 2003-2012, mean TC and HDL-c significantly decreased among diabetic adults taking cholesterol medication [% difference per survey cycle (p-value for linear trend): TC = -2.3% (0.003) and HDL-c = -2.3% (0.033)]. Mean TC, HDL-c, and LDL-c levels did not significantly change from 2003 to 2012 in non-diabetic adults taking cholesterol medication or for adults not taking cholesterol medications. Diabetic adults were more likely to have lower lipid levels, except for triglyceride levels, than non-diabetic adults with profound differences when considering cholesterol medication use, possibly due to the positive effects from clinical diabetes management.

Linearly chirped fiber Bragg grating response to thermal gradient: from bench tests to the real-time assessment during in vivo laser ablations of biological tissue.

PubMed

Saccomandi, Paola; Varalda, Ambra; Gassino, Riccardo; Tosi, Daniele; Massaroni, Carlo; Caponero, Michele A; Pop, Raoul; Korganbayev, Sanzhar; Perrone, Guido; Diana, Michele; Vallan, Alberto; Costamagna, Guido; Marescaux, Jacques; Schena, Emiliano

2017-09-01

The response of a fiber optic sensor [linearly chirped fiber Bragg grating (LCFBG)] to a linear thermal gradient applied on its sensing length (i.e., 1.5 cm) has been investigated. After these bench tests, we assessed their feasibility for temperature monitoring during thermal tumor treatment. In particular, we performed experiments during ex vivo laser ablation (LA) in pig liver and in vivo thermal ablation in animal models (pigs). We investigated the following: (i) the relationship between the full width at half maximum of the LCFBG spectrum and the temperature difference among the extremities of the LCFBG and (ii) the relationship between the mean spectrum wavelength and the mean temperature acting on the LCFBG sensing area. These relationships showed a linear trend during both bench tests and LA in animal models. Thermal sensitivity was significant although different values were found with regards to bench tests and animal experiments. The linear trend and significant sensitivity allow hypothesizing a future use of this kind of sensor to monitor both temperature gradient and mean temperature within a tissue undergoing thermal treatment. (2017) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

Structural and lithologic study of northern California Coast Range and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator); Steele, W. C.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Photgeologic examination of repetitive multispectral ERTS-1 imagery of Northern California has disclosed several systems of linear features which may be important for the interpretation of the structural history of California. They are separated from an orthogonal system of linears in the Klamath Mts. by a set of discontinuous southeast-trending linear features (the Mendocino system) which is traceable from the Pacific Coast, at Cape Mendocino, into the eastern foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Within the Sierra Nevada, the Mendocino system separates the north-trending Sierran system from a set of linears characteristic of the Modoc Plateau. With minor exception, little overlap exists among the systems which suggests a decipherable chronology and evolutionary history for the region. The San Andres system of linears appears to truncate or co-exist with most of the other systems in the northern Coast Ranges. The Mendocino system truncates the Klamath, Sierran, and Modoc systems. The Sierran system may represent fundamental and long-persisting pre-late Paleozoic zones of crustal weakness which have been reactivated from time to time. The Mendocino system was possibly developed in early Mesozoic and is important to the structural framework of Northern California.

Compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers: international trends during 25 Years.

PubMed

Israelsson, Magnus; Gerdner, Arne

2012-01-01

The study explores international trends in law on compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers (CCC), and two subtypes - civil CCC and CCC within criminal justice legislation - as well as maximum length and amount of applications of such care. The time period covers more than 25 years, and a total of 104 countries and territories. The study is based on available data in three times of observation (1986, 1999 and 2009). Applications of CCC in number of cases are studied on European level for the years 2002-2006. Trends are analyzed using nonparametric tests and general linear models for repeated measures. Findings are discussed from contextual analysis. There is a trend towards decrease in the number of countries worldwide having civil CCC legislation after the millennium, while CCC under criminal law has increased since the mid-1980s, resulting in some total net decrease. The shift results in longer mean duration of CCC and an increase in the number of cases sentenced. There is a risk that the shift from civil CCC to penal CCC implies more focus on young out-acting males in compulsory treatment and that the societal responsibility for more vulnerable persons might be neglected. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Bayesian change point analysis of abundance trends for pelagic fishes in the upper San Francisco Estuary.

PubMed

Thomson, James R; Kimmerer, Wim J; Brown, Larry R; Newman, Ken B; Mac Nally, Ralph; Bennett, William A; Feyrer, Frederick; Fleishman, Erica

2010-07-01

We examined trends in abundance of four pelagic fish species (delta smelt, longfin smelt, striped bass, and threadfin shad) in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, over 40 years using Bayesian change point models. Change point models identify times of abrupt or unusual changes in absolute abundance (step changes) or in rates of change in abundance (trend changes). We coupled Bayesian model selection with linear regression splines to identify biotic or abiotic covariates with the strongest associations with abundances of each species. We then refitted change point models conditional on the selected covariates to explore whether those covariates could explain statistical trends or change points in species abundances. We also fitted a multispecies change point model that identified change points common to all species. All models included hierarchical structures to model data uncertainties, including observation errors and missing covariate values. There were step declines in abundances of all four species in the early 2000s, with a likely common decline in 2002. Abiotic variables, including water clarity, position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (X2), and the volume of freshwater exported from the estuary, explained some variation in species' abundances over the time series, but no selected covariates could explain statistically the post-2000 change points for any species.

Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the upstrean Hing-she station raise vivestok Sing-She stations are that ammonia on a upward trend, BOD5 no significant change in trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, river pollution index (RPI) a slight downward trend. Dong-gang River Basin , but the progress of sewer construction in slow. To reduce pollation in this river effort shoul be made regulatory reform on livestock waste control and acceleration of sewer construction. Keywords: quantile regression analysis, BOD5, RPI

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Trends in age verification among U.S. adolescents attempting to buy cigarettes at retail stores, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Filippidis, Filippos T; Agaku, Israel T; Connolly, Gregory N; Vardavas, Constantine I

2014-04-01

This study assessed trends in age verification prior to cigarette sales to U.S. middle and high school students, and refusal to sell cigarettes to students aged <18 years during 2000-2009. Data were obtained from the 2000-2009 National Youth Tobacco Survey. Trends during 2000-2009 were assessed using binary logistic regression (p<0.05). The proportion of all students, who reported being asked to show proof of age prior to a cigarette purchase in the past 30 days did not change significantly between 2000 (46.9%) and 2009 (44.9%) (p=0.529 for linear trend). No significant trend in the proportion of students aged < 18 years who were refused a sale when attempting to buy cigarettes was observed between 2000 (39.8%) and 2009 (36.7%) (p=0.283 for linear trend). Refusal of a cigarette sale was significantly higher among under-aged boys compared to girls (adjusted odds ratio=1.48; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-1.70). About half of U.S. middle and high school students who reported making a cigarette purchase were not asked for proof of age, and about three of five under-aged buyers successfully made a cigarette purchase in 2009. Intensified implementation and enforcement of policies requiring age verification among youths is warranted to reduce access and use of tobacco products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Worldwide Trends of Urinary Stone Disease Treatment Over the Last Two Decades: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Geraghty, Robert M; Jones, Patrick; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-06-01

Numerous studies have reported on regional or national trends of stone disease treatment. However, no article has yet examined the global trends of intervention for stone disease. A systematic review of articles from 1996 to September 2016 for all English language articles reporting on trends of surgical treatment of stone disease was performed. Authors were contacted in the case of data not being clear. If the authors did not reply, data were estimated from graphs or tables. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 21, and trends were analyzed using linear regression. Our systematic review yielded 120 articles, of which 8 were included in the initial review. This reflected outcomes from six countries with available data: United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Brazil. Overall ureteroscopy (URS) had a 251.8% increase in total number of treatments performed with the share of total treatments increasing by 17%. While the share of total treatments for percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) remained static, the share for extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy and open surgery fell by 14.5% and 12%, respectively. There was significant linear regression between rising trends of total treatments year on year for URS (p < 0.001). In the last two decades, the share of total treatment for urolithiasis across the published literature has increased for URS, stable for PCNL, and decreased for lithotripsy and open surgery.

Climate change at upper treeline: How do trees on the edge react to increasing temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Matthias; Bugmann, Harald; Nötzli, Magdalena; Bigler, Christof

2017-04-01

Treeline ecotones are thought to be particularly sensitive to climate warming, and an alteration of their growth conditions may have important implications for the ecosystem services they supply in mountain regions. We use a novel approach to quantify effects of a changing climate on tree growth, using case studies in the European Alps. We compiled tree-ring data from almost 600 trees of four species at treeline in three climate regions of Switzerland. Temperature loggers installed along transects provided data for a precise interpolation of temperatures experienced by the sampled trees. To assess the influence of temperature on annual growth, we used linear mixed-effects models, allowing us to quantify effect sizes and to account for between-tree growth variability. After removing biological growth trends, we isolated temporal trends of ring-width indices. Furthermore, we fitted non-linear regression models to radial growth rates of individual years with temperature and tree age as predicting covariates for a fine-scale investigation of the temperature dependency of tree growth. For all species, climate-growth linear mixed-effects models indicated strong positive responses of ring-width indices to temperature in early summer and previous year's autumn, featuring considerable between-tree variability. All species showed positive ring-width index trends at treeline but different interactions with elevation: Larix decidua exhibited a declining ring-width index trend with decreasing elevation, whereas Picea abies, Pinus cembra and Pinus mugo showed increasing and/or stable trends. Not only reflected our findings the effects of ameliorated growth conditions, they might have also revealed suspected negative and positive feedbacks of climate change on growth, and increased the knowledge about the functional form and parameterization of the temperature dependency of tree growth.

Trends in bullying victimization by gender among U.S. high school students.

PubMed

Pontes, Nancy M H; Ayres, Cynthia G; Lewandowski, Carla; Pontes, Manuel C F

2018-06-01

This research used four consecutive waves of data from the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) conducted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), to estimate linear time trends by gender in the prevalence of school and electronic bullying victimization among U.S. high school students (N = 61,042). Dependent variables were student self-reported school bullying victimization and electronic bullying victimization during the previous 12 months. Independent variables used to estimate multiple logistic regression models by gender were survey year, race/ethnicity, and grade level. Results showed the prevalence of school bullying increased significantly among females from 2009 (21.2%) to 2015 (24.8%), linear trend OR = 1.08 [1.04, 1.12]; and decreased significantly among males from 2009 (18.7%) to 2015 (15.8%), linear trend OR = 0.93 [0.89, 0.98]. Prevalence of electronic bullying was unchanged between 2011 to 2015 among both male and female students. Asian race, relative to White race, was associated with significantly lower rates of both school and electronic bullying victimization among females, but not males. The incidence of school and electronic bullying victimization was significantly lower among Black and Hispanic students, but not among multiple-race students, regardless of student gender. Healthy People 2020 set a goal to reduce school bullying victimization 10% by 2019. As of 2015, school bullying victimization decreased significantly among males (16% decrease); it significantly increased among females (17% increase). Future research should explore underlying factors related to these divergent trends, and develop effective strategies to reverse the alarming rise in female school bullying victimization. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of climate related changes in two Arctic fjords, Hornsund and Porsanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniskiewicz, Paulina; Stramska, Małgorzata

2017-04-01

In the Arctic zone the climate change is amplified in comparison to globally averaged trends, and the observed trends are variable spatially. Our research is focused on two Artic fjords: Porsanger and Horsund. Porsanger fjord is located in the coastal waters of the Barents Sea. Hornsund is one of fjords located in the western part of Svalbard archipelago. In this presentation we have used data provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for three meteorological stations. Two of them are located in the Porsanger fjord (Lakselv - in the inner part, Honningsvåg - in the outer zone). The third station provides data from the Hornsund fjord. Using these data we have estimated the 33-year trends (1983-2015) of air temperature and relative humidity in each station using linear regression analysis (statistically significant at 95In the inner part of the Porsanger fjord (Lakselv) the multiyear trend of increasing annual mean air temperature has been estimated at 0.006°C per year. The monthly trends were statistically significant in May, September and November. The strongest seasonal warming has been observed in spring and autumn. The trends of increasing annual mean humidity was about 0.2In Hornsund the air temperature trend (0.2°C per year) is significantly larger than in Porsanger. The trends of air temperature were statistically significant for eight months (except March, April, June and July) and three seasons (besides spring). The trends of relative humidity were not statistically significant. Thanks to this research we can discuss how atmospheric conditions and climate related trends change in time and seasons of the year in two different Arctic regions. The project has been financed from the funds of the Leading National Research Centre (KNOW) received by the Centre for Polar Studies for the period 2014-2018. This work was also funded by the Norway Grants (NCBR contract No. 201985, project NORDFLUX). Partial support comes from the Institute of Oceanology (IO PAN).

Central Tendency and Dispersion Measures of the Fundamental Frequencies of Four Vowels as Produced by Two Year-Old and Four-Year Children.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monroe, Roberta Lynn

The intrinsic fundamental frequency effect among vowels is a vocalic phenomenon of adult speech in which high vowels have higher fundamental frequencies in relation to low vowels. Acoustic investigations of children's speech have shown that variability of the speech signal decreases as children's ages increase. Fundamental frequency measures have been suggested as an indirect metric for the development of laryngeal stability and coordination. Studies of the intrinsic fundamental frequency effect have been conducted among 8- and 9-year old children and in infants. The present study investigated this effect among 2- and 4-year old children. Eight 2-year old and eight 4-year old children produced four vowels, /ae/, /i/, /u/, and /a/, in CVC syllables. Three measures of fundamental frequency were taken. These were mean fundamental frequency, the intra-utterance standard deviation of the fundamental frequency, and the extent to which the cycle-to-cycle pattern of the fundamental frequency was predicted by a linear trend. An analysis of variance was performed to compare the two age groups, the four vowels, and the earlier and later repetitions of the CVC syllables. A significant difference between the two age groups was detected using the intra-utterance standard deviation of the fundamental frequency. Mean fundamental frequencies and linear trend analysis showed that voicing of the preceding consonant determined the statistical significance of the age-group comparisons. Statistically significant differences among the fundamental frequencies of the four vowels were not detected for either age group.

Geostatistical and GIS analysis of the spatial variability of alluvial gold content in Ngoura-Colomines area, Eastern Cameroon: Implications for the exploration of primary gold deposit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takodjou Wambo, Jonas Didero; Ganno, Sylvestre; Djonthu Lahe, Yannick Sthopira; Kouankap Nono, Gus Djibril; Fossi, Donald Hermann; Tchouatcha, Milan Stafford; Nzenti, Jean Paul

2018-06-01

Linear and nonlinear geostatistic is commonly used in ore grade estimation and seldom used in Geographical Information System (GIS) technology. In this study, we suggest an approach based on geostatistic linear ordinary kriging (OK) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques to investigate the spatial distribution of alluvial gold content, mineralized and gangue layers thicknesses from 73 pits at the Ngoura-Colomines area with the aim to determine controlling factors for the spatial distribution of mineralization and delineate the most prospective area for primary gold mineralization. Gold content varies between 0.1 and 4.6 g/m3 and has been broadly grouped into three statistical classes. These classes have been spatially subdivided into nine zones using ordinary kriging model based on physical and topographical characteristics. Both mineralized and barren layer thicknesses show randomly spatial distribution, and there is no correlation between these parameters and the gold content. This approach has shown that the Ngoura-Colomines area is located in a large shear zone compatible with the Riedel fault system composed of P and P‧ fractures oriented NE-SW and NNE-SSW respectively; E-W trending R fractures and R‧ fractures with NW-SE trends that could have contributed significantly to the establishment of this gold mineralization. The combined OK model and GIS analysis have led to the delineation of Colomines, Tissongo, Madubal and Boutou villages as the most prospective areas for the exploration of primary gold deposit in the study area.

Spaceborne estimated long-term trends (1980s - 2013) of albedo and melting season length over the Greenland ice sheet and linkages to climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

The length of the melting season and surface albedo modulate the amount of meltwater produced over the Greenland ice sheet. The two quantities are intimately connected through a suite of non-linear processes: for example, early melting can reduce the surface albedo (through constructive grain size metamorphism), hence affecting the surface energy balance and further increasing melting. Over the past years, several studies have highlighted increased melting concurring, with a decrease of mean surface albedo over Greenland. However, few studies have examined the duration of the melting season, its implication for surface processes and linkages to climate drivers. Moreover, the majority (if not all) of the studies assessing albedo trends from spaceborne data over Greenland have focused on the last decade or so (2000 - 2013) because they use data collected over the same period by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Here, we evaluate and synthesize long-term trends in the length of the melting season (1979 - 2013) derived from spaceborne microwave observations together with surface albedo trends for the period 1982 - 2013 using data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). To our knowledge, this is the first time that trends in Greenland albedo and melt season length are discussed for the periods considered in this study. Our results point to a lengthening of the melting season as a consequence of earlier melt onset and later refreeze and to a decrease of mean albedo (1982 - 2013) over the Greenland ice sheet, with trends being spatially variable. To account for this spatial variability, the results of an analysis at regional scales over 12 different regions (defined by elevation and drainage systems) are also reported. The robustness of the results is evaluated by means of a comparative analysis of the results obtained from both AVHRR and MODIS when overlapping data are available (2000 - 2013). Lastly, because large-scale circulation patterns and climate drivers can impact the amount of meltwater produced over Greenland (hence impacting albedo), we discuss the observed trends in the context of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) using a combination of regional climate model outputs and re-analysis data.

Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1987-01-01

Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

Flutter analysis of composite box beams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, Dewey H.; Greenman, Matthew

1995-01-01

The dynamic aeroelastic instability of flutter is an important factor in the design of modern high-speed, flexible aircraft. The current trend is toward the creative use of composites to delay flutter. To obtain an optimum design, we need an accurate as well as efficient model. As a first step towards this goal, flutter analysis is carried out for an unswept composite box beam using a linear structural model and Theodorsen's unsteady aerodynamic theory. Structurally, the wing was modeled as a thin-walled box-beam of rectangular cross section. Theodorsen's theory was used to get 2-D unsteady aerodynamic forces, which were integrated over the span. A free-vibration analysis is carried out. These fundamental modes are used to get the flutter solution using the V-g method. Future work is intended to build on this foundation.

Prevalence and Trends in Domestic Violence in South Korea: Findings From National Surveys.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Yop; Oh, Sehun; Nam, Seok In

2016-05-01

To examine trends in the prevalence of domestic violence since 1997, 1 year prior to the introduction of legislative countermeasures and accompanying services in South Korea, and to analyze what socio-demographic characteristics of perpetrators contribute to spousal violence and whether there were any changes in risk factors over time. This study used two sets of nationally representative household samples: married or cohabiting couples of 1,540 from the 1999 national survey and 3,269 from the 2010 National Survey of Domestic Violence. Frequency analysis was used to measure the prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV), and cross-tabulation, correlation, and logistic regression analyses were used to look for socio-demographic risk factors of spousal physical violence and patterns of change over time. The frequency analysis showed that the IPV prevalence dropped by approximately 50%, from 34.1% in 1999 to 16.5% in 2010, though it was still higher than many other countries. The cross-tabulation and logistic regression analyses suggested that men with low socio-demographic characteristics were generally more violent, though this tendency did not apply to women. Instead, younger women seemed to be more violent than older women. Last, different levels of household income were associated with different levels of IPV in 2010, but no linear trend was detected. In this study, IPV prevalence trends and risk factors of two different time periods were discussed to provide implications for tackling the IPV problem. Future countermeasures must build on understanding about men with low socio-demographic status and younger women, who were more violent in marital relationships. © The Author(s) 2015.

Use of selected ambulatory dental services in Taiwan before and after global budgeting: a longitudinal study to identify trends in hospital and clinic-based services.

PubMed

Lin, Chienhung; Chao, Hailun

2012-09-25

The Taiwan government adopted National Health Insurance (NHI) in 1995, providing universal health care to all citizens. It was financed by mandatory premium contributions made by employers, employees, and the government. Since then, the government has faced increasing challenges to control NHI expenditures. The aim of this study was to determine trends in the provision of dental services in Taiwan after the implementation of global budgeting in 1998 and to identify areas of possible concern. This longitudinal before/after study was based on data from the National Health Insurance Research Database from 1996 to 2001. These data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. Linear regression analysis was used to examine changes in delivery of specific services after global budgeting implementation. Utilization of hospital and clinic services was compared. Reimbursement for dental services increased significantly while the number of visits per patient remained steady in both hospitals and clinics. In hospitals, visits for root canal procedures, ionomer restoration, tooth extraction and tooth scaling increased significantly. In dental clinics, visits for amalgam restoration decreased significantly while those for ionomer restoration, tooth extraction, and tooth scaling increased significantly. After the adoption of global budgeting, expenditures for dental services increased dramatically while the number of visits per patient did not, indicating a possible shift in patients to hospital facilities that received additional National Health Insurance funding. The identified trends indicate increased utilization of dental services and uneven distribution of care and dentists. These trends may be compromising the quality of dental care delivered in Taiwan.

Significant calendar period deviations in testicular germ cell tumors indicate that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

PubMed

Speaks, Crystal; McGlynn, Katherine A; Cook, Michael B

2012-10-01

The current working model of type II testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) pathogenesis states that carcinoma in situ arises during embryogenesis, is a necessary precursor, and always progresses to cancer. An implicit condition of this model is that only in utero exposures affect the development of TGCT in later life. In an age-period-cohort analysis, this working model contends an absence of calendar period deviations. We tested this contention using data from the SEER registries of the United States. We assessed age-period-cohort models of TGCTs, seminomas, and nonseminomas for the period 1973-2008. Analyses were restricted to whites diagnosed at ages 15-74 years. We tested whether calendar period deviations were significant in TGCT incidence trends adjusted for age deviations and cohort effects. This analysis included 32,250 TGCTs (18,475 seminomas and 13,775 nonseminomas). Seminoma incidence trends have increased with an average annual percentage change in log-linear rates (net drift) of 1.25 %, relative to just 0.14 % for nonseminoma. In more recent time periods, TGCT incidence trends have plateaued and then undergone a slight decrease. Calendar period deviations were highly statistically significant in models of TGCT (p = 1.24(-9)) and seminoma (p = 3.99(-14)), after adjustment for age deviations and cohort effects; results for nonseminoma (p = 0.02) indicated that the effects of calendar period were much more muted. Calendar period deviations play a significant role in incidence trends of TGCT, which indicates that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

Analysis of spatial-temporal heterogeneity in remotely sensed aerosol properties observed during 2005-2015 over three countries along the Gulf of Guinea Coast in Southern West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aklesso, Mangamana; Kumar, K. Raghavendra; Bu, Lingbing; Boiyo, Richard

2018-06-01

In the present study, the spatial-temporal distribution and estimation of trends of different aerosol optical properties, and related impact factors were investigated over three countries: Ghana, Togo, and Benin along the Gulf of Guinea Coast in Southern West Africa (SWA). For this purpose, long-term satellite derived aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth at 550 nm; AOD550, Ångström exponent at 470-660 nm; AE470-660, and absorption aerosol index; AAI) retrieved from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during January 2005-December 2015 were utilized. The annual mean spatial distribution of AOD550 was found to be high (>0.55) over the southern coastal area, moderate-to-high (0.35-0.55) over the central, and low (<0.35) over northern parts of the study domain. The seasonal mean variations showed high (low) values of AOD550 and AAI during the Harmattan or dry (wet) season. Whereas, low (high) AE470-660 values were characterized during the Harmattan (wet) season. Linear trend analysis revealed a decreasing trend in AOD550 and AAI, and increasing trend in AE470-660. Further, an investigation on the potential drivers to AOD distribution over the SWA revealed that precipitation, NDVI, and terrain were negatively correlated with AOD. Finally, the HYSPLIT derived back trajectory analyses revealed diverse transport pathways originated from the North Atlantic Ocean, Sahara Desert, and Nigeria along with locally generated aerosols.

Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals difficult to be detected at a local scale as it could cause large uncertainties when using linear correlation analysis only. This paper explores the relationship between global SST and terrestrial precipitation with respect to long-term non-stationary teleconnection signals during 1981-2010 over three regions in North America and one in Central America. Empirical mode decomposition as well as wavelet analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic trend and the dominant oscillation of the SST and precipitation time series in sequence. After finding possible associations between the dominant oscillation of seasonal precipitation and global SST through lagged correlation analysis, the statistically significant SST regions are extracted based on the correlation coefficient. With these characterized associations, individual contribution of these SST forcing regions linked to the related precipitation responses are further quantified through nonlinear modeling with the aid of extreme learning machine. Results indicate that the non-leading SST regions also contribute a salient portion to the terrestrial precipitation variability compared to some known leading SST regions. In some cases, these

Plasma apelin levels, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk factors in a coastal Chinese population.

PubMed

Zhu, Pengli; Huang, Feng; Lin, Fan; Yuan, Yin; Chen, Falin; Li, Qiaowei

2013-11-01

To describe the relationship of plasma apelin levels with blood pressure in a coastal Chinese population. This cross-sectional study included a total of 1031 subjects from the coastal areas of China. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and linear trend test, Pearson's correlation analysis, as well as multivariate linear regression analysis were used to evaluate the association between plasma apelin levels and blood pressure. Plasma apelin levels dropped with increasing quartiles of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial blood pressure (MABP) (all P<0.001). SBP, DBP, and MABP values decreased as the apelin levels increased within the quartiles. After adjusting for age and gender, the significant differences in SBP, DBP, and MABP between the groups within the apelin quartiles remained (all P<0.05). A significant negative correlation between SBP, DBP, as well as MABP and apelin levels was observed (all P<0.01); even after adjusting for cardiovascular confounding factors, this negative correlation remained (all P<0.001). A negative correlation between plasma apelin levels and blood pressure was found in this 1000-population-based epidemiological study. Apelin may become a potential therapeutic target of anti-hypertensive treatment.

Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Tummon, Fiona; Haigh, Joanna D.

2017-10-01

Observations of stratospheric ozone from multiple instruments now span three decades; combining these into composite datasets allows long-term ozone trends to be estimated. Recently, several ozone composites have been published, but trends disagree by latitude and altitude, even between composites built upon the same instrument data. We confirm that the main causes of differences in decadal trend estimates lie in (i) steps in the composite time series when the instrument source data changes and (ii) artificial sub-decadal trends in the underlying instrument data. These artefacts introduce features that can alias with regressors in multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis; both can lead to inaccurate trend estimates. Here, we aim to remove these artefacts using Bayesian methods to infer the underlying ozone time series from a set of composites by building a joint-likelihood function using a Gaussian-mixture density to model outliers introduced by data artefacts, together with a data-driven prior on ozone variability that incorporates knowledge of problems during instrument operation. We apply this Bayesian self-calibration approach to stratospheric ozone in 10° bands from 60° S to 60° N and from 46 to 1 hPa (˜ 21-48 km) for 1985-2012. There are two main outcomes: (i) we independently identify and confirm many of the data problems previously identified, but which remain unaccounted for in existing composites; (ii) we construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties, that is free from most of these problems - we call this the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite. To analyse the new BASIC composite, we use dynamical linear modelling (DLM), which provides a more robust estimate of long-term changes through Bayesian inference than MLR. BASIC and DLM, together, provide a step forward in improving estimates of decadal trends. Our results indicate a significant recovery of ozone since 1998 in the upper stratosphere, of both northern and southern midlatitudes, in all four composites analysed, and particularly in the BASIC composite. The BASIC results also show no hemispheric difference in the recovery at midlatitudes, in contrast to an apparent feature that is present, but not consistent, in the four composites. Our overall conclusion is that it is possible to effectively combine different ozone composites and account for artefacts and drifts, and that this leads to a clear and significant result that upper stratospheric ozone levels have increased since 1998, following an earlier decline.

Recent Enrollment Trends in American Soil Science Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.; Abit, Sergio; Brown, David; Dolliver, Holly; Hopkins, David; Lindbo, David; Manu, Andrew; Mbila, Monday; Parikh, Sanjai J.; Schulze, Darrell; Shaw, Joey; Weil, Ray; Weindorf, David

2015-04-01

Soil science student enrollment was on the decline in the United States from the early 1990s through the early 2000s. Overall undergraduate student enrollment in American colleges and universities rose by about 11% over the same time period. This fact created considerable consternation among the American soil science community. As we head into the International Year of Soil, it seemed to be a good time to revisit this issue and examine current enrollment trends. Fourteen universities that offer undergraduate and/or graduate programs in soil science were surveyed for their enrollments over the time period 2007-2014 (the last seven academic years). The 14 schools represent about 20% of the institutions that offer soil science degrees/programs in the United States. Thirteen institutions submitted undergraduate data and 10 submitted graduate data, which was analyzed by individual institution and in aggregate. Simple linear regression was used to find the slope of best-fit trend lines. For individual institutions, a slope of ≥ 0.5 (on average, the school gained 0.5 students per year or more) was considered to be growing enrollment, ≤ -0.5 was considered shrinking enrollment, and between -0.5 and 0.5 was considered to be stable enrollment. For aggregated data, the 0.5 slope standard was multiplied by the number of schools in the aggregated survey to determine whether enrollment was growing, shrinking, or stable. Over the period of the study, six of the 13 schools reporting undergraduate data showed enrollment gains, five of the 13 showed stable enrollments, one of the 13 showed declining enrollments, and one of the 13 discontinued their undergraduate degree program. The linear regression trend line for the undergraduate schools' composite data had a slope of 55.0 students/year (R2 = 0.96), indicating a strong overall trend of undergraduate enrollment growth at these schools. However, the largest school had also seen large growth in enrollment. To ensure that this one institution was not masking an overall declining enrollment trend, the regression was also run with that institution removed. This gave a linear trend line with a slope of 6.6 students/year (R2 = 0.90), indicating more moderate growth but still a trend towards growth in undergraduate enrollment. Four of the 10 graduate programs showed enrollment gains, five of the 10 showed stable enrollments, and one of the 10 showed declining enrollments. The linear regression trend line for the composite graduate school data had a slope of 12.0 students/year (R2 = 0.97), indicating an overall trend of enrollment growth at these schools. As a whole, both the undergraduate and graduate programs investigated showed moderate growth trends, which represent a reversal of enrollment trends reported at the beginning of the 21st Century. Challenges in obtaining the data used for this study included 1) differences in data collection and archiving by institutions and 2) only some schools still offer a soil science degree; many schools offer another degree (e.g., agricultural studies, agronomy, environmental resource science, environmental science, plant and soil science, etc.) with a soils option or emphasis. In the second case it was necessary to identify which students in these other degree programs pursued the soil science option or emphasis.

Secular trends of infectious disease mortality in The Netherlands, 1911-1978: quantitative estimates of changes coinciding with the introduction of antibiotics.

PubMed

Mackenbach, J P; Looman, C W

1988-09-01

Secular trends of mortality from 21 infectious diseases in the Netherlands were studied by inspection of age/sex-standardized mortality curves and by log-linear regression analysis. An attempt was made to obtain quantitative estimates for changes coinciding with the introduction of antibiotics. Two possible types of effect were considered: a sharp reduction of mortality at the moment of the introduction of antibiotics, and a longer lasting (acceleration of) mortality decline after the introduction. Changes resembling the first type of effect were possibly present for many infectious diseases, but were difficult to measure exactly, due to late effects on mortality of World War II. Changes resembling the second type of effect were present in 16 infectious diseases and were sometimes quite large. For example, estimated differences in per cent per annum mortality change were 10% or larger for puerperal fever, scarlet fever, rheumatic fever, erysipelas, otitis media, tuberculosis, and bacillary dysentery. No acceleration of mortality decline after the introduction of antibiotics was present in mortality from 'all other diseases'. Although the exact contribution of antibiotics to the observed changes cannot be inferred from this time trend analysis, the quantitative estimates of the changes show that even a partial contribution would represent a substantial effect of antibiotics on mortality from infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

[Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and related affecting factors of actual evapotranspiration in the Hun-Taizi River Basin, Northeast China].

PubMed

Feng, Xue; Cai, Yan-Cong; Guan, De-Xin; Jin, Chang-Jie; Wang, An-Zhi; Wu, Jia-Bing; Yuan, Feng-Hui

2014-10-01

Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1970 to 2006, the advection-aridity (AA) model with calibrated parameters was used to calculate evapotranspiration in the Hun-Taizi River Basin in Northeast China. The original parameter of the AA model was tuned according to the water balance method and then four subbasins were selected to validate. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of evapotranspiration and related affecting factors were analyzed using the methods of linear trend analysis, moving average, kriging interpolation and sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the empirical parameter value of 0.75 of AA model was suitable for the Hun-Taizi River Basin with an error of 11.4%. In the Hun-Taizi River Basin, the average annual actual evapotranspiration was 347.4 mm, which had a slightly upward trend with a rate of 1.58 mm · (10 a(-1)), but did not change significantly. It also indicated that the annual actual evapotranspiration presented a single-peaked pattern and its peak value occurred in July; the evapotranspiration in summer was higher than in spring and autumn, and it was the smallest in winter. The annual average evapotranspiration showed a decreasing trend from the northwest to the southeast in the Hun-Taizi River Basin from 1970 to 2006 with minor differences. Net radiation was largely responsible for the change of actual evapotranspiration in the Hun-Taizi River Basin.

The intra-day dynamics of affect, self-esteem, tiredness, and suicidality in Major Depression.

PubMed

Crowe, Eimear; Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Carroll, Susan; Malone, Kevin M

2018-02-21

Despite growing interest in the temporal dynamics of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), we know little about the intra-day fluctuations of key symptom constructs. In a study of momentary experience, the Experience Sampling Method captured the within-day dynamics of negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, passive suicidality, and tiredness across clinical MDD (N= 31) and healthy control groups (N= 33). Ten symptom measures were taken per day over 6 days (N= 2231 observations). Daily dynamics were modeled via intra-day time-trends, variability, and instability in symptoms. MDD participants showed significantly increased variability and instability in negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, and suicidality. Significantly different time-trends were found in positive affect (increased diurnal variation and an inverted U-shaped pattern in MDD, compared to a positive linear trend in controls) and tiredness (decreased diurnal variation in MDD). In the MDD group only, passive suicidality displayed a negative linear trend and self-esteem displayed a quadratic inverted U trend. MDD and control participants thus showed distinct dynamic profiles in all symptoms measured. As well as the overall severity of symptoms, intra-day dynamics appear to define the experience of MDD symptoms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

Does mesoscale matters in decadal changes observed in the northern Canary upwelling system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Relvas, P.; Luís, J.; Santos, A. M. P.

2009-04-01

The Western Iberia constitutes the northern limb of the Canary Current Upwelling System, one of the four Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems of the world ocean. The strong dynamic link between the atmosphere and the ocean makes these systems highly sensitive to global change, ideal to monitor and investigate its effects. In order to investigate decadal changes of the mesoscale patterns in the Northern Canary upwelling system (off Western Iberia), the field of the satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) trends was built at the pixel scale (4x4 km) for the period 1985-2007, based on the monthly mean data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board NOAA series satellites, provided by the NASA Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The time series were limited to the nighttime passes to avoid the solar heating effect and a suite of procedures were followed to guarantee that the temperature trends were not biased towards the seasonally more abundant summer data, when the sky is considerably clear. A robust linear fit was applied to each individual pixel, crossing along the time the same pixel in all the processed monthly mean AVHRR SST images from 1985 until 2007. The field of the SST trends was created upon the slopes of the linear fits applied to each pixel. Monthly mean SST time series from the one degree enhanced International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and from near-shore measurements collected on a daily basis by the Portuguese Meteorological Office (IM) are also used to compare the results and extend the analysis back until 1960. A generalized warming trend is detected in the coastal waters off Western Iberia during the last decades, no matter which data set we analyse. However, significant spatial differences in the warming rates are observed in the satellite-derived SST trends. Remarkably, off the southern part of the Western Iberia the known upwelling pattern is clearly reflected in the warming field. There, the coastal upwelled waters show a weak warming trend when compared with the offshore waters. If we assume that the SST contrast between coastal and offshore waters is a proxy for the upwelling intensity, then this fact suggests the enhancement of the upwelling regime off SW Iberia since 1985. Although the seasonal nature of the upwelling in the region, the strengthening must be significant since it leaves a coherent imprint in the annual warming field. An analysis done on a monthly basis reveals that the central months of the classical upwelling season (July to September) are the responsible for this coherent mesoscale structure observed in the warming field off SW Iberia. The same conclusions are not clear for the mesoscale structure further north, where no significant differences are observed between the coastal and offshore warming rates. To investigate if our results, obtained for the period with satellite coverage (1985-2007), could be extended or not until 1960, we computed an upwelling index as the SST difference between coastal and offshore ICOADS SST. The analysis revealed that the trends are different whether we consider the whole time series or only the period investigated with the satellite imagery. We can suppose a relatively unchanged upwelling regime if we consider the period 1960-2005, but a rapid increase of intensity if we consider the period from 1985 onwards, particularly in the most southern regions, in agreement with the satellite imagery analysis. Our present results point out that mesoscale activity can account for larger changes in local SST than global average trends. In Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems, where mesoscale structures play a major role in the description of the upwelling regime, to rely on sparse spatial observations to hypothesize about the decadal behaviour of the upwelling intensity at the basin scale may be questionable.

Arginine intake is associated with oxidative stress in a general population.

PubMed

Carvalho, Aline Martins de; Oliveira, Antonio Anax Falcão de; Loureiro, Ana Paula de Melo; Gattás, Gilka Jorge Figaro; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Marchioni, Dirce Maria

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the association between protein and arginine from meat intake and oxidative stress in a general population. Data came from the Health Survey for Sao Paulo (ISA-Capital), a cross-sectional population-based study in Brazil (N = 549 adults). Food intake was estimated by a 24-h dietary recall. Oxidative stress was estimated by malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration in plasma. Analyses were performed using general linear regression models adjusted for some genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders. MDA levels were associated with meat intake (P for linear trend = 0.031), protein from meat (P for linear trend = 0.006), and arginine from meat (P for linear trend = 0.044) after adjustments for confounders: age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, intake of fruit and vegetables, energy and heterocyclic amines, C-reactive protein levels, and polymorphisms in GSTM1 (glutathione S-transferase Mu 1) and GSTT1 (glutathione S-transferase theta 1) genes. Results were not significant for total protein and protein from vegetable intake (P > 0.05). High protein and arginine from meat intake were associated with oxidative stress independently of genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders in a population-based study. Our results suggested a novel link between high protein/arginine intake and oxidative stress, which is a major cause of age-related diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-Linear Concentration-Response Relationships between Ambient Ozone and Daily Mortality.

PubMed

Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kashima, Saori; Yorifuji, Takashi; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

2015-01-01

Ambient ozone (O3) concentration has been reported to be significantly associated with mortality. However, linearity of the relationships and the presence of a threshold has been controversial. The aim of the present study was to examine the concentration-response relationship and threshold of the association between ambient O3 concentration and non-accidental mortality in 13 Japanese and Korean cities from 2000 to 2009. We selected Japanese and Korean cities which have population of over 1 million. We constructed Poisson regression models adjusting daily mean temperature, daily mean PM10, humidity, time trend, season, year, day of the week, holidays and yearly population. The association between O3 concentration and mortality was examined using linear, spline and linear-threshold models. The thresholds were estimated for each city, by constructing linear-threshold models. We also examined the city-combined association using a generalized additive mixed model. The mean O3 concentration did not differ greatly between Korea and Japan, which were 26.2 ppb and 24.2 ppb, respectively. Seven out of 13 cities showed better fits for the spline model compared with the linear model, supporting a non-linear relationships between O3 concentration and mortality. All of the 7 cities showed J or U shaped associations suggesting the existence of thresholds. The range of city-specific thresholds was from 11 to 34 ppb. The city-combined analysis also showed a non-linear association with a threshold around 30-40 ppb. We have observed non-linear concentration-response relationship with thresholds between daily mean ambient O3 concentration and daily number of non-accidental death in Japanese and Korean cities.

Synthesis of linear regression coefficients by recovering the within-study covariance matrix from summary statistics.

PubMed

Yoneoka, Daisuke; Henmi, Masayuki

2017-06-01

Recently, the number of regression models has dramatically increased in several academic fields. However, within the context of meta-analysis, synthesis methods for such models have not been developed in a commensurate trend. One of the difficulties hindering the development is the disparity in sets of covariates among literature models. If the sets of covariates differ across models, interpretation of coefficients will differ, thereby making it difficult to synthesize them. Moreover, previous synthesis methods for regression models, such as multivariate meta-analysis, often have problems because covariance matrix of coefficients (i.e. within-study correlations) or individual patient data are not necessarily available. This study, therefore, proposes a brief explanation regarding a method to synthesize linear regression models under different covariate sets by using a generalized least squares method involving bias correction terms. Especially, we also propose an approach to recover (at most) threecorrelations of covariates, which is required for the calculation of the bias term without individual patient data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Investigating parameters participating in the infant respiratory control system attractor.

PubMed

Terrill, Philip I; Wilson, Stephen J; Suresh, Sadasivam; Cooper, David M; Dakin, Carolyn

2008-01-01

Theoretically, any participating parameter in a non-linear system represents the dynamics of the whole system. Taken's time delay embedding theory provides the fundamental basis for allowing non-linear analysis to be performed on physiological, time-series data. In practice, only one measurable parameter is required to be measured to convey an accurate representation of the system dynamics. In this paper, the infant respiratory control system is represented using three variables-a digitally sampled respiratory inductive plethysmography waveform, and the derived parameters tidal volume and inter-breath interval time series data. For 14 healthy infants, these data streams were analysed using recurrence plot analysis across one night of sleep. The measured attractor size of these variables followed the same qualitative trends across the nights study. Results suggest that the attractor size measures of the derived IBI and tidal volume are representative surrogates for the raw respiratory waveform. The extent to which the relative attractor sizes of IBI and tidal volume remain constant through changing sleep state could potentially be used to quantify pathology, or maturation of breathing control.

Current levels and trends of selected EU Water Framework Directive priority substances in freshwater fish from the German environmental specimen bank.

PubMed

Fliedner, Annette; Lohmann, Nina; Rüdel, Heinz; Teubner, Diana; Wellmitz, Jörg; Koschorreck, Jan

2016-09-01

Under the German environmental specimen bank programme bream (Abramis brama) were sampled in six German rivers and analysed for the priority hazardous substances dicofol, hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), hexachlorobutadiene (HCBD), heptachlor + heptachlor epoxide (HC + HCE), polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and -furans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCDD/Fs + dl-PCBs), and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS). The aim was to assess compliance with the EU Water Framework Directive environmental quality standards for biota (EQSBiota) for the year 2013, and to analyse temporal trends for those substances that are of special concern. General compliance was observed for dicofol, HBCDD and HCBD whereas PBDEs exceeded the EQSBiota at all sites. For all other substances compliance in 2013 varied between locations. No assessment was possible for HC + HCE at some sites where the analytical sensitivity was not sufficient to cover the EQSBiota. Trend analysis showed decreasing linear trends for HCB and PFOS at most sampling sites between 1995 and 2014 indicating that the emission reduction measures are effective. Mostly decreasing trends or constant levels were also observed for PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs. In contrast, increasing trends were detected for PBDEs and HBCDD which were especially pronounced at one Saar site located downstream of the industries and conurbation of Saarbrücken and Völklingen. This finding points to new sources of emissions which should be followed in the coming years. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.

Air Pollution and urban climatology at Norfolk, Virginia

Treesearch

W. Maurice Pritchard; Kuldip P. Chopra

1977-01-01

The atmosphere at Norfolk is usually stable, with no strongly prevailing wind direction. Linear regression analyses of visibility data indicate a generally decreasing visibility trend between 1960 and 1972, with a possible trend reversal in later years. A 44 percent increase in the annual frequency of 0-4-mile visibility occurred in 1960-72. Similar analyses of...

Obesity, High-Calorie Food Intake, and Academic Achievement Trends among U.S. School Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Jian; O'Connell, Ann A.

2012-01-01

The authors investigated children's self-reported high-calorie food intake in Grade 5 and its relationship to trends in obesity status and academic achievement over the first 6 years of school. They used 3-level hierarchical linear models in the large-scale database (the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study--Kindergarten Cohort). Findings indicated…

Analysis of a Spatial Point Pattern: Examining the Damage to Pavement and Pipes in Santa Clara Valley Resulting from the Loma Prieta Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phelps, G.A.

2008-01-01

This report describes some simple spatial statistical methods to explore the relationships of scattered points to geologic or other features, represented by points, lines, or areas. It also describes statistical methods to search for linear trends and clustered patterns within the scattered point data. Scattered points are often contained within irregularly shaped study areas, necessitating the use of methods largely unexplored in the point pattern literature. The methods take advantage of the power of modern GIS toolkits to numerically approximate the null hypothesis of randomly located data within an irregular study area. Observed distributions can then be compared with the null distribution of a set of randomly located points. The methods are non-parametric and are applicable to irregularly shaped study areas. Patterns within the point data are examined by comparing the distribution of the orientation of the set of vectors defined by each pair of points within the data with the equivalent distribution for a random set of points within the study area. A simple model is proposed to describe linear or clustered structure within scattered data. A scattered data set of damage to pavement and pipes, recorded after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, is used as an example to demonstrate the analytical techniques. The damage is found to be preferentially located nearer a set of mapped lineaments than randomly scattered damage, suggesting range-front faulting along the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains is related to both the earthquake damage and the mapped lineaments. The damage also exhibit two non-random patterns: a single cluster of damage centered in the town of Los Gatos, California, and a linear alignment of damage along the range front of the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. The linear alignment of damage is strongest between 45? and 50? northwest. This agrees well with the mean trend of the mapped lineaments, measured as 49? northwest.

Trends in Cigarette Smoking Rates and Quit Attempts Among Adults With and Without Diagnosed Diabetes, United States, 2001–2010

PubMed Central

Rock, Valerie; Zhang, Xuanping; Li, Yan; Elam-Evans, Laurie; Balluz, Lina

2013-01-01

Introduction Quitting smoking is a critical step toward diabetes control. It is not known whether smoking rates in adults with diabetes are similar to rates among adults who do not have the disease or whether people with diabetes have increased motivation to quit. We examined prevalence trends of current smoking and quit attempts among US adults with and without diagnosed diabetes from 2001 through 2010. Methods We used data from the 2001 through 2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based telephone survey of noninstitutionalized US adults, and conducted linear trend analysis and log linear regression. Results The adjusted prevalence of cigarette smoking among adults with diagnosed diabetes was 9% less than adults without diagnosed diabetes (adjusted prevalence ratio [APR], 0.91; 99% confidence interval [CI], 0.89−0.93). Declines in smoking prevalence were greater among adults without diabetes than adults with diagnosed diabetes (P < .001). Among smokers, the adjusted prevalence of quit attempts among adults with diagnosed diabetes was 13% higher than among adults without diagnosed diabetes (APR, 1.13; 99% CI, 1.11−1.15). Among adult smokers with diagnosed diabetes, quit attempts were stable over time for those aged 18 to 44 years and those with a high school education or less. Quit attempts were also stable for older smokers, non-Hispanic African Americans, and Hispanic smokers, regardless of diagnosed diabetes status. Conclusion A large proportion of smokers with diagnosed diabetes seemed to have quit smoking, but more research is needed to confirm success and how difficult it was to achieve. PMID:24050530

Unchanged Pediatric Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Survival Rates with Regional Variation in North America

PubMed Central

Fink, Ericka L.; Prince, David K.; Kaltman, Jonathan R.; Atkins, Dianne L.; Austin, Michael; Warden, Craig; Hutchison, Jamie; Daya, Mohamud; Goldberg, Scott; Herren, Heather; Tijssen, Janice A.; Christenson, James; Vaillancourt, Christian; Miller, Ronna; Schmicker, Robert H.; Callaway, Clifton W.

2016-01-01

Aim Outcomes for pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) are poor. Our objective was to determine temporal trends in incidence and mortality for pediatric OHCA. Methods Adjusted incidence and hospital mortality rates of pediatric non-traumatic OHCA patients from 2007-2012 were analyzed using the 9 region Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium - Epidemiological Registry (ROC-Epistry) database. Children were divided into 4 age groups: perinatal (< 3 days), infants (3 days - 1 year), children (1 - 11 years), and adolescents (12 - 19 years). ROC regions were analyzed post-hoc. Results We studied 1,738 children with OHCA. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate of OHCA was 8.3 per 100,000 person-years (75.3 for infants vs. 3.7 for children and 6.3 for adolescents, per 100,000 person-years, p<0.001). Incidence rates differed by year (p<0.001) without overall linear trend. Annual survival rates ranged from 6.7-10.2%. Survival was highest in the perinatal (25%) and adolescent (17.3%) groups. Stratified by age group, survival rates over time were unchanged (all p>0.05) but there was a non-significant linear trend (1.3% increase) in infants. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, infants, unwitnessed event, initial rhythm of asystole, and region were associated with worse survival, all p<0.001. Survival by region ranged from 2.6-14.7%. Regions with the highest survival had more cases of EMS-witnessed OHCA, bystander CPR, and increased EMS-defibrillation (all p<0.05). Conclusions Overall incidence and survival of children with OHCA in ROC regions did not significantly change over a recent 5 year period. Regional variation represents an opportunity for further study to improve outcomes. PMID:27565862

Chocolate consumption and risk of heart failure in the Physicians’ Health Study

PubMed Central

Petrone, Andrew B; Gaziano, J. Michael; Djoussé, Luc

2015-01-01

Aims To test the hypothesis that chocolate consumption is associated with a lower risk of heart failure (HF). Methods and Results We prospectively studied 20,278 men from the Physicians’ Health Study. Chocolate consumption was assessed between 1999 and 2002 via a self-administered food frequency questionnaire and HF was ascertained through annual follow-up questionnaires with validation in a subsample. We used Cox regression to estimate multivariable adjusted relative risk of HF. During a mean follow-up of 9.3 years, there were 876 new cases of HF. The mean age at baseline was 66.4 ± 9.2 years. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for HF were 1.0 (ref), 0.86 (0.72–1.03), 0.80 (0.66–0.98), 0.92 (0.74–1.13), and 0.82 (0.63–1.07), for chocolate consumption of less than 1/month, 1–3/week, 2–4/week, and 5+/week, respectively, after adjusting for age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol, exercise, energy intake, and history of atrial fibrillation (p for quadratic trend = 0.62). In a secondary analysis, chocolate consumption was inversely associated with risk of HF in men whose BMI was <25 kg/m2 (HR (95% CI) = 0.59 (0.37–0.94) for consumption of 5+ servings/week, p for linear trend = 0.03) but not in those with BMI of 25+ kg/m2 (HR (95% CI) = 1.01 (0.73–1.39), p for linear trend = 0.42, p for interaction=0.17). Conclusions Our data suggest that moderate consumption of chocolate might be associated with a lower risk of HF in male physicians.. PMID:25311633

Development of reaching during mid-childhood from a Developmental Systems perspective.

PubMed

Golenia, Laura; Schoemaker, Marina M; Otten, Egbert; Mouton, Leonora J; Bongers, Raoul M

2018-01-01

Inspired by the Developmental Systems perspective, we studied the development of reaching during mid-childhood (5-10 years of age) not just at the performance level (i.e., endpoint movements), as commonly done in earlier studies, but also at the joint angle level. Because the endpoint position (i.e., the tip of the index finger) at the reaching target can be achieved with multiple joint angle combinations, we partitioned variability in joint angles over trials into variability that does not (goal-equivalent variability, GEV) and that does (non-goal-equivalent variability, NGEV) influence the endpoint position, using the Uncontrolled Manifold method. Quantifying this structure in joint angle variability allowed us to examine whether and how spatial variability of the endpoint at the reaching target is related to variability in joint angles and how this changes over development. 6-, 8- and 10-year-old children and young adults performed reaching movements to a target with the index finger. Polynomial trend analysis revealed a linear and a quadratic decreasing trend for the variable error. Linear decreasing and cubic trends were found for joint angle standard deviations at movement end. GEV and NGEV decreased gradually with age, but interestingly, the decrease of GEV was steeper than the decrease of NGEV, showing that the different parts of the joint angle variability changed differently over age. We interpreted these changes in the structure of variability as indicating changes over age in exploration for synergies (a family of task solutions), a concept that links the performance level with the joint angle level. Our results suggest changes in the search for synergies during mid-childhood development.

Impact of tobacco prices and smoke-free policy on smoking cessation, by gender and educational group: Spain, 1993-2012.

PubMed

Regidor, Enrique; Pascual, Cruz; Giráldez-García, Carolina; Galindo, Silvia; Martínez, David; Kunst, Anton E

2015-12-01

To evaluate the effect of tobacco prices and the implementation of smoke-free legislation on smoking cessation in Spain, by educational level, across the period 1993-2012. National Health Surveys data for the above two decades were used to calculate smoking cessation in people aged 25-64 years. The relationship between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio was estimated using multiple linear regression adjusted for time and the presence of smoke-free legislation. The immediate as well as the longer-term impact of the 2006 smoke-free law on quit-ratio was estimated using segmented linear regression analysis. The analyses were performed separately in men and women with high and low education, respectively. No relationship was observed between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio, except in women having a low educational level, among whom a rise in price was associated with a decrease in quit-ratio. The smoke-free law altered the smoking quit-ratio in the short term and altered also pre-existing trends. Smoking quit-ratio increased immediately after the ban - though this increase was significant only among women with a low educational level - and then decreased in subsequent years except among men with a high educational level. A clear relationship between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio was not observed in a recent period. After the implementation of smoke-free legislation the trend in the quit ratio in most of the socio-economic groups was different from the trend observed before implementation, so existing inequalities in smoking quit-ratio were not widened or narrowed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vitamin D and health care costs: Results from two independent population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Hannemann, A; Wallaschofski, H; Nauck, M; Marschall, P; Flessa, S; Grabe, H J; Schmidt, C O; Baumeister, S E

2017-10-31

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with higher morbidity. However, there is few data regarding the effect of vitamin D deficiency on health care costs. This study examined the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between the serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D concentration (25OHD) and direct health care costs and hospitalization in two independent samples of the general population in North-Eastern Germany. We studied 7217 healthy individuals from the 'Study of Health in Pomerania' (SHIP n = 3203) and the 'Study of Health in Pomerania-Trend' (SHIP-Trend n = 4014) who had valid 25OHD measurements and provided data on annual total costs, outpatient costs, hospital stays, and inpatient costs. The associations between 25OHD concentrations (modelled continuously using factional polynomials) and health care costs were examined using a generalized linear model with gamma distribution and a log link. Poisson regression models were used to estimate relative risks of hospitalization. In cross-sectional analysis of SHIP-Trend, non-linear associations between the 25OHD concentration and inpatient costs and hospitalization were detected: participants with 25OHD concentrations of 5, 10 and 15 ng/ml had 226.1%, 51.5% and 14.1%, respectively, higher inpatient costs than those with 25OHD concentrations of 20 ng/ml (overall p-value = 0.001) in multivariable models. We found a relation between lower 25OHD concentrations and increased inpatient health care costs and hospitalization. Our results thus indicate an influence of vitamin D deficiency on health care costs in the general population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

PubMed

Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

2016-04-01

To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (<2 h/d; OR per year=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·06). For daily vegetable consumption a non-linear negative trend was observed (school year 2012-2013 v. 2006-2007: OR=0·90; 95 % CI 0·80, 1·00). Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (P<0·001), as were time trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (P<0·001). The increase in positive screen-time behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Authorship in Radiology Journals.

PubMed

Dang, Wilfred; McInnes, Matthew D F; Kielar, Ania Z; Hong, Jiho

2015-01-01

The purpose of our study was to investigate authorship trends in radiology journals, and whether International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) recommendations have had an impact on these trends. A secondary objective was to explore other variables associated with authorship trends. A retrospective, bibliometric analysis of 49 clinical radiology journals published from 1946-2013 was conducted. The following data was exported from MEDLINE (1946 to May 2014) for each article: authors' full name, year of publication, primary author institution information, language of publication and publication type. Microsoft Excel Visual Basics for Applications scripts were programmed to categorize extracted data. Statistical analysis was performed to determine the overall mean number of authors per article over time, impact of ICMJE guidelines, authorship frequency per journal, country of origin, article type and language of publication. 216,271 articles from 1946-2013 were included. A univariate analysis of the mean authorship frequency per year of all articles yielded a linear relationship between time and authorship frequency. The mean number of authors per article in 1946 (1.42) was found to have increased consistently by 0.07 authors/ article per year (R² = 0.9728, P<0.001) to 5.79 authors/article in 2013. ICMJE guideline dissemination did not have an impact on this rise in authorship frequency. There was considerable variability in mean authors per article and change over time between journals, country of origin, language of publication and article type. Overall authorship for 49 radiology journals across 68 years has increased markedly with no demonstrated impact from ICMJE guidelines. A higher number of authors per article was seen in articles from: higher impact journals, European and Asian countries, original research type, and those journals who explicitly endorse the ICMJE guidelines.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Authorship in Radiology Journals

PubMed Central

Dang, Wilfred; McInnes, Matthew D. F.; Kielar, Ania Z.; Hong, Jiho

2015-01-01

Objectives The purpose of our study was to investigate authorship trends in radiology journals, and whether International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) recommendations have had an impact on these trends. A secondary objective was to explore other variables associated with authorship trends. Methods A retrospective, bibliometric analysis of 49 clinical radiology journals published from 1946–2013 was conducted. The following data was exported from MEDLINE (1946 to May 2014) for each article: authors’ full name, year of publication, primary author institution information, language of publication and publication type. Microsoft Excel Visual Basics for Applications scripts were programmed to categorize extracted data. Statistical analysis was performed to determine the overall mean number of authors per article over time, impact of ICMJE guidelines, authorship frequency per journal, country of origin, article type and language of publication. Results 216,271 articles from 1946–2013 were included. A univariate analysis of the mean authorship frequency per year of all articles yielded a linear relationship between time and authorship frequency. The mean number of authors per article in 1946 (1.42) was found to have increased consistently by 0.07 authors/ article per year (R² = 0.9728, P<0.001) to 5.79 authors/article in 2013. ICMJE guideline dissemination did not have an impact on this rise in authorship frequency. There was considerable variability in mean authors per article and change over time between journals, country of origin, language of publication and article type. Conclusion Overall authorship for 49 radiology journals across 68 years has increased markedly with no demonstrated impact from ICMJE guidelines. A higher number of authors per article was seen in articles from: higher impact journals, European and Asian countries, original research type, and those journals who explicitly endorse the ICMJE guidelines. PMID:26407072

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Pau, Stephanie

2013-01-01

Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of the model is rather poor, and possible explanations are discussed.

Sea-level variability in the Common Era along the Atlantic coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, A.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.; Little, C. M.; Engelhart, S. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

Common Era relative sea-level trends on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean vary through time and across space as a result of simultaneous global (basin-wide)-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. A growing suite of relative sea-level reconstructions derived from dated salt-marsh (and mangrove) sediment on the Atlantic coast of North America provides an opportunity to quantify the contributions from several physical processes to Common Era sea-level trends. In particular, this coastline is susceptible to relative sea-level changes caused by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and redistribution of existing ocean mass on timescales of days to centuries by evolving patterns and strengths of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Using a case study from Newfoundland, Canada, we demonstrate how high-resolution (decadal- and decimeter-scale) relative sea level reconstructions are produced from sequences of salt-marsh sediment that were deposited under conditions of long-term sea-level rise. We use an expanded database of Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions from the Atlantic coast of North America that spans locations from Newfoundland to the southern Florida to identify spatial and temporal patterns of change. A spatio-temporal statistical model enables us to decompose each reconstruction (with uncertainty) into contributions from global-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. This analysis shows that spatially-variable glacio-isostatic adjustment was the primary driver of sea-level change. The global signal is dominated by the onset of anthropogenic sea-level rise in the late 19th century, which caused the 20th century to experience a faster rate of rise than any of the preceding 26 centuries. Differentiating between regional non-linear and local-scale processes is a challenging using an inherently sparse network of reconstructions. However, we show that sites south of Cape Hatteras have sea-level histories distinct to those from more northward locations and propose that this spatial pattern is best explained by dynamic processes that could include century-scale NAO-driven circulation changes. Complementary paleoenvironmental reconstructions from diverse proxies support this interpretation.

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Tropospheric Nitrogen Dioxide Column Density Trends Seen from the 10-year Record of OMI Measurements over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irie, H.; Muto, T.; Itahashi, S.; Kurokawa, J. I.

2015-12-01

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite recorded the 10-year (2005-2014) of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) vertical column density (VCD) data. The data set taken over East Asia was analyzed to estimate linear trends on national and grid bases for two periods of 2005-2011 and 2011-2014. The most striking features are leveling-off or decreasing trends seen in NO2 VCDs over China for 2011-2014 after continuous increases for 2005-2011. In particular, a significant reduction by ~14% occurred from 2013 through 2014, attaining to the level of 2009. The grid-basis trend analysis implies that the turnaround seen in the trends occurred on a province or larger spatial scale and was likely due mainly to the technical improvement such as the widespread use of de-NOx units. Another prominent features are seen in Japan, where NO2 VCDs decreased at a rate of ~4% per year from 2005 to 2011. The rate was almost unchanged between the two periods 2005-2011 and 2011-2014, while the significant power substitution of thermal power generation for the nuclear power generation took place in Japan after 2011, when a massive earthquake occurred off the Pacific coast of northern Japan. This reflects a less contribution of NOx emissions from the power plant sector than that from the transport sector in the Pacific Belt Zone lying over metropolitan areas.

Trends in US movie tobacco portrayal since 1950: a historical analysis.

PubMed

Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Dan

2010-06-01

Portrayal of tobacco use in films has been causally linked to youth smoking initiation. However, findings regarding trends in portrayal in US films since 1950 are inconsistent, potentially due to differences in sampling densities, intercoder reliabilities and time periods covered. The present study was designed to overcome these inconsistencies with a common sampling frame and methodology. A half sample of the 30 top-grossing US films per year from 1950 to 2006 (N=855) was coded in 5-min segments for total tobacco-related content and main character tobacco use. Film tobacco trends were identified using linear regression and compared to national per capita cigarette consumption and historically significant tobacco control events. Tobacco content declined considerably since 1950. Total tobacco-related content peaked around 1961, while the decline in portrayal of main character use was already underway in 1950. Cigarette consumption peaked around 1966 with a trend that closely paralleled total tobacco content and that coincided with major tobacco control events. This study, which had high reliability, dense sampling and covered a long time period, indicates that tobacco content has declined in top-ranked US movies since 1950 with a trend in total tobacco content that closely paralleled the drop in per capita cigarette consumption and the increase in significant tobacco control efforts. Despite the inability to draw causal conclusions, tobacco portrayal in films may serve as barometer of societal support for the habit and thus efforts should continue to limit exposure to such content.

Step responses of a torsional system with multiple clearances: Study of vibro-impact phenomenon using experimental and computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oruganti, Pradeep Sharma; Krak, Michael D.; Singh, Rajendra

2018-01-01

Recently Krak and Singh (2017) proposed a scientific experiment that examined vibro-impacts in a torsional system under a step down excitation and provided preliminary measurements and limited non-linear model studies. A major goal of this article is to extend the prior work with a focus on the examination of vibro-impact phenomena observed under step responses in a torsional system with one, two or three controlled clearances. First, new measurements are made at several locations with a higher sampling frequency. Measured angular accelerations are examined in both time and time-frequency domains. Minimal order non-linear models of the experiment are successfully constructed, using piecewise linear stiffness and Coulomb friction elements; eight cases of the generic system are examined though only three are experimentally studied. Measured and predicted responses for single and dual clearance configurations exhibit double sided impacts and time varying periods suggest softening trends under the step down torque. Non-linear models are experimentally validated by comparing results with new measurements and with those previously reported. Several metrics are utilized to quantify and compare the measured and predicted responses (including peak to peak accelerations). Eigensolutions and step responses of the corresponding linearized models are utilized to better understand the nature of the non-linear dynamic system. Finally, the effect of step amplitude on the non-linear responses is examined for several configurations, and hardening trends are observed in the torsional system with three clearances.

Health, behavioral, cognitive, and social correlates of breakfast skipping among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods.

PubMed

Smith, Kylie J; McNaughton, Sarah A; Cleland, Verity J; Crawford, David; Ball, Kylie

2013-11-01

Breakfast skipping is a potentially modifiable behavior that has negative effects on health and is socioeconomically patterned. This study aimed to examine the intrapersonal (health, behavioral, and cognitive) and social factors associated with breakfast skipping. Nonpregnant women (n = 4123) aged 18-45 y from socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods throughout Victoria, Australia, completed a postal questionnaire. Sociodemographic characteristics, diet, physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and cognitive and social factors were assessed by self-report. Breakfast skipping was defined in 2 ways: 1) "rarely/never" eating breakfast (n = 498) and 2) eating breakfast ≤2 d/wk (includes those who rarely/never ate breakfast; n = 865). Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence ratios and linear trends, adjusting for covariates. The P values for linear trends are reported below. Compared with breakfast consumers, women who reported rarely/never eating breakfast tended to have poorer self-rated health (P-trend < 0.001), be current smokers (P-trend < 0.001), pay less attention to health (P-trend < 0.001), not prioritize their own healthy eating when busy looking after their family (P-trend < 0.001), have less nutrition knowledge (P-trend < 0.001), and a lower proportion were trying to control their weight (P-trend < 0.020). When breakfast skipping was defined as eating breakfast ≤2 d/wk, additional associations were found for having lower leisure-time physical activity (P-trend = 0.012) and less self-efficacy for eating a healthy diet (P-trend < 0.043). In conclusion, a range of intrapersonal and social factors were significantly associated with breakfast skipping among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Acknowledging the cross-sectional design and need for causal confirmation, programs that aim to promote breakfast consumption in this population group should consider targeting family-related barriers to healthy eating and nutrition knowledge.

Intimate Partner Violence and HIV Risk Behaviors Among Socially Disadvantaged Chilean Women

PubMed Central

Miner, Sarah; Ferrer, Lilian; Cianelli, Rosina; Bernales, Margarita; Cabieses, Báltica

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine if a relationship exists between intimate partner violence (IPV) and HIV risk among socioeconomically disadvantaged Chilean women. A correlational analysis with data from the NIH-funded project, “Testing an HIV/AIDS Prevention Intervention for Chilean Women,” was conducted. Two hundred and sixtyone women were included in this analysis (n = 261). Those women who had experienced any type of IPV in the past 3 months had significantly higher risk for HIV than those who had not (t = −2.016, p < .05). Also a linear trend was found among those women who had experienced more than one type of IPV in the past 3 months and HIV risk. PMID:21486859

National Trends of Simple Prostatectomy for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia With an Analysis of Risk Factors for Adverse Perioperative Outcomes.

PubMed

Pariser, Joseph J; Pearce, Shane M; Patel, Sanjay G; Bales, Gregory T

2015-10-01

To examine the national trends of simple prostatectomy (SP) for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) focusing on perioperative outcomes and risk factors for complications. The National Inpatient Sample (2002-2012) was utilized to identify patients with BPH undergoing SP. Analysis included demographics, hospital details, associated procedures, and operative approach (open, robotic, or laparoscopic). Outcomes included complications, length of stay, charges, and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors for perioperative complications. Linear regression was used to assess the trends in the national annual utilization of SP. The study population included 35,171 patients. Median length of stay was 4 days (interquartile range 3-6). Cystolithotomy was performed concurrently in 6041 patients (17%). The overall complication rate was 28%, with bleeding occurring most commonly. In total, 148 (0.4%) patients experienced in-hospital mortality. On multivariate analysis, older age, black race, and overall comorbidity were associated with greater risk of complications while the use of a minimally invasive approach and concurrent cystolithotomy had a decreased risk. Over the study period, the national use of simple prostatectomy decreased, on average, by 145 cases per year (P = .002). By 2012, 135/2580 procedures (5%) were performed using a minimally invasive approach. The nationwide utilization of SP for BPH has decreased. Bleeding complications are common, but perioperative mortality is low. Patients who are older, black race, or have multiple comorbidities are at higher risk of complications. Minimally invasive approaches, which are becoming increasingly utilized, may reduce perioperative morbidity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigating the usefulness of a cluster-based trend analysis to detect visual field progression in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Aoki, Shuichiro; Murata, Hiroshi; Fujino, Yuri; Matsuura, Masato; Miki, Atsuya; Tanito, Masaki; Mizoue, Shiro; Mori, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Yamashita, Takehiro; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Hirasawa, Kazunori; Shoji, Nobuyuki; Asaoka, Ryo

2017-12-01

To investigate the usefulness of the Octopus (Haag-Streit) EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis in glaucoma. Ten visual fields (VFs) with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec), spanning 7.7 years on average were obtained from 728 eyes of 475 primary open angle glaucoma patients. Mean total deviation (mTD) trend analysis and EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis were performed on various series of VFs (from 1st to 10th: VF1-10 to 6th to 10th: VF6-10). The results of the cluster-based trend analysis, based on different lengths of VF series, were compared against mTD trend analysis. Cluster-based trend analysis and mTD trend analysis results were significantly associated in all clusters and with all lengths of VF series. Between 21.2% and 45.9% (depending on VF series length and location) of clusters were deemed to progress when the mTD trend analysis suggested no progression. On the other hand, 4.8% of eyes were observed to progress using the mTD trend analysis when cluster trend analysis suggested no progression in any two (or more) clusters. Whole field trend analysis can miss local VF progression. Cluster trend analysis appears as robust as mTD trend analysis and useful to assess both sectorial and whole field progression. Cluster-based trend analyses, in particular the definition of two or more progressing cluster, may help clinicians to detect glaucomatous progression in a timelier manner than using a whole field trend analysis, without significantly compromising specificity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Chou, Ming-Dah; Lindzen, Richard S.; Hou, Arthur Y.

2001-01-01

In his comment on Lindzen et al., Harrison found that the amount of high-level clouds, A, and the sea-surface temperature beneath clouds, T, averaged over a large oceanic domain in the western Pacific have secular linear trends of opposite signs over a period of 20 months. He found that when the linear trends are subtracted from the data, the correlation between the residual A and T is much reduced. His estimates of the confidence levels for the correlation indicate, moreover, that this correlation is not statistically significant. The domain-averaged A and, to a lesser degree, T, have distinct intra-seasonal and seasonal variations. These variations are influenced by the large-scale wind and temperature distributions and by the seasonal variation of insolation. To separate the local effect from the effect of slowly changing large-scale conditions, rather than subtracting 20-month linear trends from the series, which has the potential to spuriously extrapolate intra-seasonal and seasonal variations to even longer time scales, we subtracted 30-day running means of A and T from each time series; in effect, the data were high-pass filtered. The number of points (days), N, is reduced by this process from the original value of 510 to 480.

Estimating the impact of mineral aerosols on crop yields in food insecure regions using statistical crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, A.; Forest, C. E.; Kemanian, A.

2016-12-01

A significant number of food-insecure nations exist in regions of the world where dust plays a large role in the climate system. While the impacts of common climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, ozone, and carbon dioxide) on crop yields are relatively well understood, the impact of mineral aerosols on yields have not yet been thoroughly investigated. This research aims to develop the data and tools to progress our understanding of mineral aerosol impacts on crop yields. Suspended dust affects crop yields by altering the amount and type of radiation reaching the plant, modifying local temperature and precipitation. While dust events (i.e. dust storms) affect crop yields by depleting the soil of nutrients or by defoliation via particle abrasion. The impact of dust on yields is modeled statistically because we are uncertain which impacts will dominate the response on national and regional scales considered in this study. Multiple linear regression is used in a number of large-scale statistical crop modeling studies to estimate yield responses to various climate variables. In alignment with previous work, we develop linear crop models, but build upon this simple method of regression with machine-learning techniques (e.g. random forests) to identify important statistical predictors and isolate how dust affects yields on the scales of interest. To perform this analysis, we develop a crop-climate dataset for maize, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, rice, and wheat for the regions of West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, and the Sahel. Random forest regression models consistently model historic crop yields better than the linear models. In several instances, the random forest models accurately capture the temperature and precipitation threshold behavior in crops. Additionally, improving agricultural technology has caused a well-documented positive trend that dominates time series of global and regional yields. This trend is often removed before regression with traditional crop models, but likely at the cost of removing climate information. Our random forest models consistently discover the positive trend without removing any additional data. The application of random forests as a statistical crop model provides insight into understanding the impact of dust on yields in marginal food producing regions.

Geography of blizzards in the conterminous United States, 1959--2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Robert Michael

2001-07-01

Many individuals think of tornadoes and hurricanes when considering weather-related storms. However, winter storms and blizzards have potential impacts on millions of people and effects on the social landscape such as fatalities, injuries, and economic consequences. Additionally, these storms can last from a few hours to over a week. This study established a climatology of blizzards in the conterminous United States from 1959-2000 utilizing data from Storm Data to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of blizzards. The annual probability of a blizzard on a county level was calculated to give the empirical probability of having a blizzard in any given winter season. Additionally, the number of blizzards were compared to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by running a linear regression to check for correlation. Finally, the social impacts of blizzards studied included the population affected, fatalities, injuries, property damage, crop damage, and federal disaster declarations. Maps were produced utilizing MapInfo and ArcView Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to summarize regional differences and temporal trends. There were 438 blizzards analyzed in the study with an annual mean of 10.7 blizzards per winter season with the majority of storms occurring in the northern Plains states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and western Minnesota. Time series analysis indicated an increase in the number of blizzards over the 41-year period while there was no linear trend of the area affected by blizzards. Annual probabilities of a blizzard were as high as 76% for Cavalier, Rolette, Steele, Towner, and Traill Counties in North Dakota. The ENSO teleconnection and the number of blizzards on the national scale suggested a negative correlation with fewer blizzards during El Nino episodes. Social impacts indicated blizzards affected 26.3 million per season with 16 fatalities and 49 injuries per season reported to Storm Data . The total population affected each winter did not show a linear trend. An average winter reported 551 million in property damage and 26 million in crop damage according to Storm Data. The number of declared disasters or emergencies due to blizzards has been increasing, especially in the 1990s.

Effect of step width manipulation on tibial stress during running.

PubMed

Meardon, Stacey A; Derrick, Timothy R

2014-08-22

Narrow step width has been linked to variables associated with tibial stress fracture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of step width on bone stresses using a standardized model of the tibia. 15 runners ran at their preferred 5k running velocity in three running conditions, preferred step width (PSW) and PSW±5% of leg length. 10 successful trials of force and 3-D motion data were collected. A combination of inverse dynamics, musculoskeletal modeling and beam theory was used to estimate stresses applied to the tibia using subject-specific anthropometrics and motion data. The tibia was modeled as a hollow ellipse. Multivariate analysis revealed that tibial stresses at the distal 1/3 of the tibia differed with step width manipulation (p=0.002). Compression on the posterior and medial aspect of the tibia was inversely related to step width such that as step width increased, compression on the surface of tibia decreased (linear trend p=0.036 and 0.003). Similarly, tension on the anterior surface of the tibia decreased as step width increased (linear trend p=0.029). Widening step width linearly reduced shear stress at all 4 sites (p<0.001 for all). The data from this study suggests that stresses experienced by the tibia during running were influenced by step width when using a standardized model of the tibia. Wider step widths were generally associated with reduced loading of the tibia and may benefit runners at risk of or experiencing stress injury at the tibia, especially if they present with a crossover running style. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complexity, self-organisation and variation in behaviour in meandering rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooke, J. M.

2007-11-01

River meanders are natural features on the surface of Earth that present some degree of regularity of form. They range from being highly dynamic to being stable under present conditions. Conventional theory is that meanders develop to an equilibrium form which is related to discharge and sediment load. Other research has demonstrated that many highly active meanders exhibit a continuous evolution over time and a non-linearity in rate of development. Ideas of autogenesis and of self-organised criticality as being an explanation of some meander changes have been proposed. In this paper data from rivers around the world are examined for further evidence of autogenic, self-organised or non-linear behaviour through analysis of change in sinuosity over time for reaches and change in individual bend form, particularly bend curvature and bend elongation. Some examples do exhibit trends of increasing sinuosity over time and a few show limits from which large decreases occur. Several case studies show non-linearity of behaviour and increasing complexity of form. Other case studies, however, do not exhibit such trends. Phase space plots are used to help uncover emergent behaviour but show a variety of patterns. The example of a reach in which multiple cut-offs occurred is analysed for mechanisms of self-organisation of the planform and in the pool-riffle pattern. Riffles are more closely spaced and also more transient in the more rapidly changing and higher sinuosity parts of the channel. Hypothetical trajectories of different meander behaviour, including for bedrock meanders, are plotted but the challenge remains to uncover the conditions for occurrence and for divergence of tendencies to stability and instability. Identification of attractors and phase space of behaviour of different meandering systems offer the potential for application to sustainable channel management.

Analysis of water-quality trends at two discharge stations; one within Big Cypress National Preserve and one near Biscayne Bay; southern Florida, 1966-94

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lietz, A.C.

2000-01-01

An analysis of water-quality trends was made at two U.S. Geological Survey daily discharge stations in southern Florida. The ESTREND computer program was the principal tool used for the determination of water-quality trends at the Miami Canal station west of Biscayne Bay in Miami and the Tamiami Canal station along U.S. Highway 41 in the Big Cypress National Preserve in Collier County. Variability in water quality caused by both seasonality and streamflow was compensated for by applying the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall trend test to unadjusted concentrations or flow-adjusted concentrations (residuals) determined from linear regression analysis. Concentrations of selected major inorganic constituents and physical characteristics; pH and dissolved oxygen; suspended sediment; nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon species; trace metals; and bacteriological and biological characteristics were determined at the Miami and Tamiami Canal stations. Median and maximum concentrations of selected constituents were compared to the Florida Class III freshwater standards for recreation, propagation, and maintenance of a healthy, well-balanced population of fish and wildlife. The median concentrations of the water-quality constituents and characteristics generally were higher at the Miami Canal station than at the Tamiami Canal station. The maximum value for specific conductance at the Miami Canal station exceeded the State standard. The median and maximum concentrations for ammonia at the Miami and Tamiami Canal stations exceeded the State standard, whereas median dissolved-oxygen concentrations at both stations were below the State standard. Trend results were indicative of either improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Improvement in water quality at the Miami Canal station was reflected by downward trends in suspended sediment (1987-94), turbidity, (1970-78), total ammonia (1971-94), total phosphorus (1987-94), barium (1978-94), iron (1969-94), and fecal coliform (1976-94). Deterioration in water quality at the same station was indicated by upward trends in specific conductance (1966-94), dissolved solids (1966-94, 1976-94, and 1987-94), chloride (1966-94), potassium (1966-94), magnesium (1966-94), sodium (1966-94), sulfate (1966-94), silica (1966-94), suspended sediment (1974-94), total organic carbon (1970-81), and fecal streptococcus (1987-94). The downward trend in pH (1966-94) was indicative of deterioration in water quality at the Miami Canal station. Improvement in water quality at the Tamiami Canal station was reflected by downward trends in fluoride (1967-93), total ammonia (1970-92), total nitrite plus nitrate (1975-85), and barium (1978-93). Deterioration in water quality at the same station was statistically significant by upward trends in specific conductance (1967-93), dissolved solids (1967-93), chloride (1967-93), sodium (1967-93), potassium (1967-93), magnesium (1967-93), strontium (1967-93), and suspended sediment (1976-93). The downward trend in dissolved oxygen (1970-93) was indicative of deterioration in water quality.

Examining Factors Affecting Science Achievement of Hong Kong in PISA 2006 Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Terence Yuk Ping; Lau, Kwok Chi

2014-01-01

This study uses hierarchical linear modeling to examine the influence of a range of factors on the science performances of Hong Kong students in PISA 2006. Hong Kong has been consistently ranked highly in international science assessments, such as Programme for International Student Assessment and Trends in International Mathematics and Science…

Relationships among Instructional Practices, Students' Motivational Beliefs and Science Achievement in Taiwan Using Hierarchical Linear Modelling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liou, Pey-Yan; Ho, Hsin-Ning Jessie

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine students' perceptions of instructional practices in the classroom, and to further investigate the relationships among instructional practices, motivational beliefs and science achievement. Hierarchical linear modelling was utilised to examine the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2007…

NASA trend analysis procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

Casas Muertas and Oficina No. 1: internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905-1945.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2007-06-01

To compare internal migration and temperature as factors behind the decreasing trend in malaria deaths observed in Venezuela from 1905 to 1945, linear autoregressive models are fitted to a historical dataset. The model that only incorporates internal migration is the one with the best fit. The decreasing trend in malaria deaths in Venezuela, from 1905 to 1945, is not explained by a trend in mean annual temperature, but it is associated with an increase in the proportion of population in the Capital District, during a time period when the area was the principal attractor of migrations within the country.

A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

2012-04-01

In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

Associations between Nut Consumption and Health Vary between Omnivores, Vegetarians, and Vegans.

PubMed

Brown, Rachel C; Gray, Andrew R; Tey, Siew Ling; Chisholm, Alexandra; Burley, Victoria; Greenwood, Darren C; Cade, Janet

2017-11-06

Regular nut consumption is associated with reduced risk factors for chronic disease; however, most population-based studies lack consideration of effect modification by dietary pattern. The UK Women's Cohort Study (UKWCS) provides an ideal opportunity to examine relationships between nut consumption and chronic disease risk factors in a large sample with diverse dietary patterns. Nut and nutrient intake from 34,831 women was estimated using a food frequency questionnaire among self-identified omnivores, vegetarians and vegans. In this cross-sectional analysis, higher nut consumption was associated with lower body weight (difference between highest and lowest consumption categories from adjusted model: 6.1 kg; 95% CI: 4.7, 7.6) body mass index (BMI, 2.4 units difference; 95% CI: 1.9, 2.9), and waist circumference (2.6 cm difference; 95% CI: 1.4, 3.8) (all p for linear trend < 0.001). Higher nut consumption was also associated with reduced prevalence of high cholesterol and high blood pressure; having a history of heart attack, diabetes and gallstones; and markers of diet quality (all adjusted p for linear trend ≤ 0.011). Higher nut consumption appeared overall to be associated with greater benefits amongst omnivores compared to vegetarians and vegans. Findings support existing literature around beneficial effects of nut consumption and suggest that benefits may be larger among omnivores. Nut promotion strategies may have the highest population impact by specifically targeting this group.

Linear regression analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics predicts a large increase in demand for elective hand surgery in England.

PubMed

Bebbington, Emily; Furniss, Dominic

2015-02-01

We integrated two factors, demographic population shifts and changes in prevalence of disease, to predict future trends in demand for hand surgery in England, to facilitate workforce planning. We analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data for Dupuytren's disease, carpal tunnel syndrome, cubital tunnel syndrome, and trigger finger from 1998 to 2011. Using linear regression, we estimated trends in both diagnosis and surgery until 2030. We integrated this regression with age specific population data from the Office for National Statistics in order to estimate how this will contribute to a change in workload over time. There has been a significant increase in both absolute numbers of diagnoses and surgery for all four conditions. Combined with future population data, we calculate that the total operative burden for these four conditions will increase from 87,582 in 2011 to 170,166 (95% confidence interval 144,517-195,353) in 2030. The prevalence of these diseases in the ageing population, and increasing prevalence of predisposing factors such as obesity and diabetes, may account for the predicted increase in workload. The most cost effective treatments must be sought, which requires high quality clinical trials. Our methodology can be applied to other sub-specialties to help anticipate the need for future service provision. Copyright © 2014 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary patterns associated with overweight among Brazilian adolescents.

PubMed

Borges, Camila Aparecida; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo; Levy, Renata Bertazzi; Slater, Betzabeth

2018-04-01

The present study aims to identify the dietary patterns of adolescents and associate these patterns with overweight. We analyzed food-consumption data from 6784 adolescents in the age group 10-18 years old collected in the Household Budget Survey 2008-2009. Dietary patterns were assessed through exploratory factor analysis. Logistic regression models were used in order to associate dietary patterns with overweight. Four dietary patterns were recorded: Traditional Brazilian Pattern, Snacks Pattern, Fast Food Pattern, and the Milk, Fruit and Cereal Breakfast Pattern. Results were adjusted according to the sociodemographic variables and showed that the higher the adherence to Snacks (OR: 1.50 fifth quintile vs first (95% CI: 1.13, 1.99) p linear trend <0.001) and Fast Food patterns (OR: 1.55 fifth quintile vs first (95% CI = 1.12, 2.12) p linear trend <0.001), the higher the chances of becoming overweight. These data indicate that the local public health and nutrition policies focused on adolescents should be more attentive to the eating habits of this population in Brazil, since the current research related regular poor nutritional quality dietary patterns to increased overweight among adolescents. In addition, understanding adolescents' eating habits according to their dietary patterns may guide the development of healthy dietary recommendations based on the combination between food and food groups, rather than only on nutrients or nutritional adequacy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tobacco use in popular movies during the past decade.

PubMed

Mekemson, C; Glik, D; Titus, K; Myerson, A; Shaivitz, A; Ang, A; Mitchell, S

2004-12-01

The top 50 commercially successful films released per year from 1991 to 2000 were content coded to assess trends in tobacco use over time and attributes of films predictive of higher smoking rates. This observational study used media content analysis methods to generate data about tobacco use depictions in films studied (n = 497). Films are the basic unit of analysis. Once films were coded and preliminary analysis completed, outcome data were transformed to approximate multivariate normality before being analysed with general linear models and longitudinal mixed method regression methods. Tobacco use per minute of film was the main outcome measure used. Predictor variables include attributes of films and actors. Tobacco use was defined as any cigarette, cigar, and chewing tobacco use as well as the display of smoke and cigarette paraphernalia such as ashtrays, brand names, or logos within frames of films reviewed. Smoking rates in the top films fluctuated yearly over the decade with an overall modest downward trend (p < 0.005), with the exception of R rated films where rates went up. The decrease in smoking rates found in films in the past decade is modest given extensive efforts to educate the entertainment industry on this issue over the past decade. Monitoring, education, advocacy, and policy change to bring tobacco depiction rates down further should continue.

[Spanish doctoral theses in emergency medicine (1978-2013)].

PubMed

Fernández-Guerrero, Inés María

2015-01-01

To quantitatively analyze the production of Spanish doctoral theses in emergency medicine. Quantitative synthesis of productivity indicators for 214 doctoral theses in emergency medicine found in the database (TESEO) for Spanish universities from 1978 to 2013. We processed the data in 3 ways as follows: compilation of descriptive statistics, regression analysis (correlation coefficients of determination), and modeling of linear trend (time-series analysis). Most of the thesis supervisors (84.1%) only oversaw a single project. No major supervisor of 10 or more theses was identified. Analysis of cosupervision indicated there were 1.6 supervisors per thesis. The theses were defended in 67 departments (both general and specialist departments) because no emergency medicine departments had been established. The most productive universities were 2 large ones (Universitat de Barcelona and Universidad Complutense de Madrid) and 3 medium-sized ones (Universidad de Granada, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, and Universidad de La Laguna). Productivity over time analyzed as the trend for 2-year periods in the time-series was expressed as a polynomial function with a correlation coefficient of determination of R2 = 0.80. Spanish doctoral research in emergency medicine has grown markedly. Work has been done in various university departments in different disciplines and specialties. The findings confirm that emergency medicine is a disciplinary field.

Characteristics of Lake Chad Level Variability and Links to ENSO, Precipitation, and River Discharge

PubMed Central

Demoz, Belay; Gebremariam, Sium

2014-01-01

This study used trend, correlation, and wavelet analysis to characterize Lake Chad (LC) level fluctuations, river discharge, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and precipitation regimes and their interrelationships. Linear correlation results indicate a negative association between ENSO and LC level, river discharge and precipitation. Trend analysis shows increasing precipitation in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) but decreasing LC level. The mode of interannual variability in LC level, rainfall, and ENSO analyzed using wavelet analysis is dominated by 3-4-year periods. Results show that variability in ENSO could explain only 31% and 13% of variations in LC level at Kindjeria and precipitation in the northern LCB, respectively. The wavelet transform coherency (WTC) between LC level of the southern pool at Kalom and ENSO is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level and phase-locked, implying a cause-and-effect association. These strong coherencies coincide with the La Niña years with the exception of 1997-1998 El Niño events. The WTC shows strong covariance between increasing precipitation and LC level in the northern pool at a 2- to 4-year band and 3- to 4-year band localized from 1996 to 2010. Implications for water resource planning and management are discussed. PMID:25538946

Nearest-neighbor thermodynamics of deoxyinosine pairs in DNA duplexes

PubMed Central

Watkins, Norman E.; SantaLucia, John

2005-01-01

Nearest-neighbor thermodynamic parameters of the ‘universal pairing base’ deoxyinosine were determined for the pairs I·C, I·A, I·T, I·G and I·I adjacent to G·C and A·T pairs. Ultraviolet absorbance melting curves were measured and non-linear regression performed on 84 oligonucleotide duplexes with 9 or 12 bp lengths. These data were combined with data for 13 inosine containing duplexes from the literature. Multiple linear regression was used to solve for the 32 nearest-neighbor unknowns. The parameters predict the Tm for all sequences within 1.2°C on average. The general trend in decreasing stability is I·C > I·A > I·T ≈ I· G > I·I. The stability trend for the base pair 5′ of the I·X pair is G·C > C·G > A·T > T·A. The stability trend for the base pair 3′ of I·X is the same. These trends indicate a complex interplay between H-bonding, nearest-neighbor stacking, and mismatch geometry. A survey of 14 tandem inosine pairs and 8 tandem self-complementary inosine pairs is also provided. These results may be used in the design of degenerate PCR primers and for degenerate microarray probes. PMID:16264087

Effect of cellulosic fiber scale on linear and non-linear mechanical performance of starch-based composites.

PubMed

Karimi, Samaneh; Abdulkhani, Ali; Tahir, Paridah Md; Dufresne, Alain

2016-10-01

Cellulosic nanofibers (NFs) from kenaf bast were used to reinforce glycerol plasticized thermoplastic starch (TPS) matrices with varying contents (0-10wt%). The composites were prepared by casting/evaporation method. Raw fibers (RFs) reinforced TPS films were prepared with the same contents and conditions. The aim of study was to investigate the effects of filler dimension and loading on linear and non-linear mechanical performance of fabricated materials. Obtained results clearly demonstrated that the NF-reinforced composites had significantly greater mechanical performance than the RF-reinforced counterparts. This was attributed to the high aspect ratio and nano dimension of the reinforcing agents, as well as their compatibility with the TPS matrix, resulting in strong fiber/matrix interaction. Tensile strength and Young's modulus increased by 313% and 343%, respectively, with increasing NF content from 0 to 10wt%. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) revealed an elevational trend in the glass transition temperature of amylopectin-rich domains in composites. The most eminent record was +18.5°C shift in temperature position of the film reinforced with 8% NF. This finding implied efficient dispersion of nanofibers in the matrix and their ability to form a network and restrict mobility of the system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in incidence of primary brain cancer in New Zealand, 1995 to 2010.

PubMed

Kim, Stella J-H; Ioannides, Sally J; Elwood, J Mark

2015-04-01

Case-control studies have linked mobile phone use to an increased risk of glioma in the most exposed brain areas, the temporal and parietal lobes, although inconsistently. We examined time trends in the incidence rates of brain malignancies in New Zealand from 1995 to 2010. Data from the New Zealand Cancer Registry was used to calculate incidence rates of primary brain cancer, by age, gender, morphology and anatomical site. Log-linear regression analysis was used to assess trends in the annual incidence of primary brain cancer; annual percentage changes and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated. No consistent increases in all primary brain cancer, glioma, or temporal or parietal lobe glioma were seen. At ages 10-69, the incidence of all brain cancers declined significantly. Incidence of glioma increased at ages over 70. In New Zealand, there has been no consistent increase in incidence rates of primary brain cancers. An increase in glioma at ages over 70 is likely to be due to improvements in diagnosis. As with any such studies, a small effect, or one with a latent period of more than 10 to 15 years, cannot be excluded. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Authorship in Radiation Oncology: Proliferation Trends Over 30 Years.

PubMed

Ojerholm, Eric; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

2015-11-15

To investigate authorship trends in the radiation oncology literature. We examined the authorship credits of "original research articles" within 2 popular radiation oncology journals-International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics and Radiotherapy and Oncology-in 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2014. We compared the number of authors per publication during these 4 time periods using simple linear regression as a test for trend. We investigated additional author characteristics in a subset of articles. A total of 2005 articles were eligible. The mean number of authors per publication rose from 4.3 in 1984 to 9.1 in 2014 (P<.001). On subset analysis of 400 articles, there was an increase in the percentage of multidisciplinary bylines (from 52% to 72%), multi-institutional bylines (from 20% to 53%), and publications with a trainee first author (from 16% to 56%) during the study period. The mean number of authors per publication has more than doubled over the last 30 years in the radiation oncology literature. Possible explanations include increasingly complex and collaborative research as well as honorary authorship. Explicit documentation of author contributions could help ensure that scientific work is credited according to accepted standards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Breakfast intake among adults with type 2 diabetes: is bigger better?

PubMed Central

Jarvandi, Soghra; Schootman, Mario; Racette, Susan B.

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the association between breakfast energy and total daily energy intake among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Design Cross-sectional study. Daily energy intake was computed from a 24-h dietary recall. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association between daily energy intake (dependent variable) and quartiles of energy intake at breakfast (independent variable) expressed as either absolute or relative (% of total daily energy intake) terms. Orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used to test for linear and quadratic trends. Models were controlled for sex, age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, physical activity and smoking. In addition, we used separate multiple regression models to test the effect of quartiles of absolute and relative breakfast energy on intake at lunch, dinner, and snacks. Setting The 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Subjects Participants aged ≥ 30 years with self-reported history of diabetes (N = 1,146). Results Daily energy intake increased as absolute breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001; quadratic trend, P = 0.02), but decreased as relative breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001). In addition, while higher quartiles of absolute breakfast intake had no associations with energy intake at subsequent meals, higher quartiles of relative breakfast intake were associated with lower energy intake during all subsequent meals and snacks (P < 0.05). Conclusions Consuming a breakfast that provided less energy or comprised a greater proportion of daily energy intake was associated with lower total daily energy intake in adults with type 2 diabetes. PMID:25529061

Variations in snow cover seasonality across the Kyrgyz Republic from 2000 to 2016 revealed through MODIS Terra and Aqua snow products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaszewska, M. A.; Henebry, G. M.

2017-12-01

The vertical transhumance practiced by herders in the highlands of Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable to environmental change. Herd movements and pasture conditions are both affected by spatial and temporal variations in snow cover and the timing of snowmelt. Early growing season soil moisture conditions affect the phenology and growth of vegetation, especially in the high elevation pastures used for summer forage. To evaluate snow seasonality, we examined three snow cover variables—the first day of snow (FDoS), the last day of snow (LDoS), and the duration of snow cover (DoSC) over 17 years based on 8-day snow product from MODIS Terra and Aqua (MOD/MYD10A2) across the Kyrgyz Republic (KYR). To track the "snow season" efficiently in the presence of snow-capped peaks, we start each snow season at day of year (DOY) 169, approximately the summer solstice, and extend to DOY 168 of the following year. To track the interannual variation of these variables, we applied two nonparametric statistics: the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Theil-Sen linear trend estimator. Our preliminary results focusing on four rayons in two oblasts indicate both large swaths of positive and negative significant trends over the different regions of the country. Positive trends in FDoS, meaning later snow arrival, were detected in parts of central KYR. Negative trends in FDoS meaning earlier arrival were detected at lower elevations in southwestern KYR. Earlier snowmelt (negative trend in LDoS) in eastern KYR resulted in a shorter snow season (negative trend in DoSC); in contrast, later snowmelt in southwestern KYR (positive trend in LDoS) resulted in a longer period of snow cover (positive trend of DoSC). We extend the analysis to the entire country and explore the influence of terrain attribites (elevation, slope, and aspect) and MODIS IGBP land cover type (MCD12Q1) on trends in snow cover seasonality. Additionally, we ran the trend tests for the Terra and Aqua snow products separately to evaluate the effect of overpass time on snow cover retrieval.

Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extreme events in China during 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yuehong; Wu, Junmei; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Yonghe

2015-08-01

This study investigates frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes based on annual maximum of daily precipitation (AMP) data of 753 observation stations in China during the period 1951-2010. Several statistical methods including L-moments, Mann-Kendall test (MK test), Student's t test ( t test) and analysis of variance ( F-test) are used to study different statistical properties related to frequency and spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the AMP series of most sites have no linear trends at 90 % confidence level, but there is a distinctive decrease trend in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. The analysis of abrupt changes shows that there are no significant changes in most sites, and no distinctive regional patterns within the mutation sites either. An important innovation different from the previous studies is the shift in the mean and the variance which are also studied in this paper in order to further analyze the changes of strong and weak precipitation extreme events. The shift analysis shows that we should pay more attention to the drought in North China and to the flood control and drought in South China, especially to those regions that have no clear trend and have a significant shift in the variance. More important, this study conducts the comprehensive analysis of a complete set of quantile estimates and its spatiotemporal characteristic in China. Spatial distribution of quantile estimation based on the AMP series demonstrated that the values gradually increased from the Northwest to the Southeast with the increment of duration and return period, while the increasing rate of estimation is smooth in the arid and semiarid region and is rapid in humid region. Frequency estimates of 50-year return period are in agreement with the maximum observations of AMP series in the most stations, which can provide more quantitative and scientific basis for decision making.

Fourier functional analysis for unsteady aerodynamic modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lan, C. Edward; Chin, Suei

1991-01-01

A method based on Fourier analysis is developed to analyze the force and moment data obtained in large amplitude forced oscillation tests at high angles of attack. The aerodynamic models for normal force, lift, drag, and pitching moment coefficients are built up from a set of aerodynamic responses to harmonic motions at different frequencies. Based on the aerodynamic models of harmonic data, the indicial responses are formed. The final expressions for the models involve time integrals of the indicial type advocated by Tobak and Schiff. Results from linear two- and three-dimensional unsteady aerodynamic theories as well as test data for a 70-degree delta wing are used to verify the models. It is shown that the present modeling method is accurate in producing the aerodynamic responses to harmonic motions and the ramp type motions. The model also produces correct trend for a 70-degree delta wing in harmonic motion with different mean angles-of-attack. However, the current model cannot be used to extrapolate data to higher angles-of-attack than that of the harmonic motions which form the aerodynamic model. For linear ramp motions, a special method is used to calculate the corresponding frequency and phase angle at a given time. The calculated results from modeling show a higher lift peak for linear ramp motion than for harmonic ramp motion. The current model also shows reasonably good results for the lift responses at different angles of attack.

Studying the Transient Thermal Contact Conductance Between the Exhaust Valve and Its Seat Using the Inverse Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nezhad, Mohsen Motahari; Shojaeefard, Mohammad Hassan; Shahraki, Saeid

2016-02-01

In this study, the experiments aimed at analyzing thermally the exhaust valve in an air-cooled internal combustion engine and estimating the thermal contact conductance in fixed and periodic contacts. Due to the nature of internal combustion engines, the duration of contact between the valve and its seat is too short, and much time is needed to reach the quasi-steady state in the periodic contact between the exhaust valve and its seat. Using the methods of linear extrapolation and the inverse solution, the surface contact temperatures and the fixed and periodic thermal contact conductance were calculated. The results of linear extrapolation and inverse methods have similar trends, and based on the error analysis, they are accurate enough to estimate the thermal contact conductance. Moreover, due to the error analysis, a linear extrapolation method using inverse ratio is preferred. The effects of pressure, contact frequency, heat flux, and cooling air speed on thermal contact conductance have been investigated. The results show that by increasing the contact pressure the thermal contact conductance increases substantially. In addition, by increasing the engine speed the thermal contact conductance decreases. On the other hand, by boosting the air speed the thermal contact conductance increases, and by raising the heat flux the thermal contact conductance reduces. The average calculated error equals to 12.9 %.

Digital histologic analysis reveals morphometric patterns of age-related involution in breast epithelium and stroma.

PubMed

Sandhu, Rupninder; Chollet-Hinton, Lynn; Kirk, Erin L; Midkiff, Bentley; Troester, Melissa A

2016-02-01

Complete age-related regression of mammary epithelium, often termed postmenopausal involution, is associated with decreased breast cancer risk. However, most studies have qualitatively assessed involution. We quantitatively analyzed epithelium, stroma, and adipose tissue from histologically normal breast tissue of 454 patients in the Normal Breast Study. High-resolution digital images of normal breast hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides were partitioned into epithelium, adipose tissue, and nonfatty stroma. Percentage area and nuclei per unit area (nuclear density) were calculated for each component. Quantitative data were evaluated in association with age using linear regression and cubic spline models. Stromal area decreased (P = 0.0002), and adipose tissue area increased (P < 0.0001), with an approximate 0.7% change in area for each component, until age 55 years when these area measures reached a steady state. Although epithelial area did not show linear changes with age, epithelial nuclear density decreased linearly beginning in the third decade of life. No significant age-related trends were observed for stromal or adipose nuclear density. Digital image analysis offers a high-throughput method for quantitatively measuring tissue morphometry and for objectively assessing age-related changes in adipose tissue, stroma, and epithelium. Epithelial nuclear density is a quantitative measure of age-related breast involution that begins to decline in the early premenopausal period. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of satellite precipitation over East Africa during last decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattani, Elsa; Wenhaji Ndomeni, Claudine; Merino, Andrés; Levizzani, Vincenzo

2016-04-01

Daily accumulated precipitation time series from satellite retrieval algorithms (e.g., ARC2 and TAMSAT) are exploited to extract the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA - 5°S-20°N, 28°E-52°E) precipitation during last decades (1983-2013). The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to precipitation time series to investigate the spatial and temporal variability in particular for October-November-December referred to as the short rain season. Moreover, the connection among EA's precipitation, sea surface temperature, and soil moisture is analyzed through the correlation with the dominant EOF modes of variability. Preliminary results concern the first two EOF's modes for the ARC2 data set. EOF1 is characterized by an inter-annual variability and a positive correlation between precipitation and El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole mode, and soil moisture, while EOF2 shows a dipole structure of spatial variability associated with a longer scale temporal variability. This second dominant mode is mostly linked to sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. Further analyses are carried out by computing the time series of the joint CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/index.shtml), i.e. RX1day, RX5day, CDD, CDD, CWD, SDII, PRCPTOT, R10, R20. The purpose is to identify the occurrenes of extreme events (droughts and floods) and extract precipitation temporal variation by trend analysis (Mann-Kendall technique). Results for the ARC2 data set demonstrate the existence of a dipole spatial pattern in the linear trend of the time series of PRCPTOT (annual precipitation considering days with a rain rate > 1 mm) and SDII (average precipitation on wet days over a year). A negative trend is mainly present over West Ethiopia and Sudan, whereas a positive trend is exhibited over East Ethiopia and Somalia. CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and CWD (maximum number of consecutive wet days) time series do not exhibit a similar behavior and trends are generally weaker with a lower significance level with respect to PRCPTOT and SDII.

Adherence to Mediterranean diet and risk of developing cognitive disorders: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Wu, Lei; Sun, Dali

2017-01-01

Recent articles have presented inconsistent findings on the impact of Mediterranean diet in the occurrence of cognitive disorders; therefore, we performed an updated systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the potential association and dose-response pattern with accumulating evidence. We searched the PubMed and the Embase for the records relevant to this topic. A generic inverse-variance method was used to pool the outcome data for continuous variable, and categories of high vs. low, median vs. low of Mediterranean diet score with a random-effects model. Generalized least-squares trend estimation model was used to estimate the potential dose-response patterns of Mediterranean diet score on incident cognitive disorders. We identified 9 cohort studies involving 34,168 participants. Compared with the lowest category, the pooled analysis showed that the highest Mediterranean diet score was inversely associated with the developing of cognitive disorders, and the pooled RR (95% CI) was 0.79 (0.70, 0.90). Mediterranean diet score of the median category was not significantly associated with cognitive disorders. Dose-response analysis indicated a trend of an approximately linear relationship of the Mediterranean diet score with the incident risk of cognitive disorders. Further studies of randomized controlled trials are warranted to confirm the observed association in different populations. PMID:28112268

Use of selected ambulatory dental services in Taiwan before and after global budgeting: a longitudinal study to identify trends in hospital and clinic-based services

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The Taiwan government adopted National Health Insurance (NHI) in 1995, providing universal health care to all citizens. It was financed by mandatory premium contributions made by employers, employees, and the government. Since then, the government has faced increasing challenges to control NHI expenditures. The aim of this study was to determine trends in the provision of dental services in Taiwan after the implementation of global budgeting in 1998 and to identify areas of possible concern. Methods This longitudinal before/after study was based on data from the National Health Insurance Research Database from 1996 to 2001. These data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. Linear regression analysis was used to examine changes in delivery of specific services after global budgeting implementation. Utilization of hospital and clinic services was compared. Results Reimbursement for dental services increased significantly while the number of visits per patient remained steady in both hospitals and clinics. In hospitals, visits for root canal procedures, ionomer restoration, tooth extraction and tooth scaling increased significantly. In dental clinics, visits for amalgam restoration decreased significantly while those for ionomer restoration, tooth extraction, and tooth scaling increased significantly. After the adoption of global budgeting, expenditures for dental services increased dramatically while the number of visits per patient did not, indicating a possible shift in patients to hospital facilities that received additional National Health Insurance funding. Conclusions The identified trends indicate increased utilization of dental services and uneven distribution of care and dentists. These trends may be compromising the quality of dental care delivered in Taiwan. PMID:23009095

Trends in breast, ovarian and cervical cancer incidence in Mumbai, India over a 30-year period, 1976–2005: an age–period–cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Dhillon, P K; Yeole, B B; Dikshit, R; Kurkure, A P; Bray, F

2011-01-01

Background: Demographic, socioeconomic and cultural changes in India have increased longevity, delayed childbearing, decreased parity and resulted in a more westernised lifestyle, contributing to the increasing burden of cancer, especially among women. Methods: We evaluated secular changes in the incidence of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer in Mumbai women aged 30–64 between 1976 and 2005. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated and presented by site and calendar period. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis quantified recent time trends and the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was obtained from the drift parameter, expressing the linear time trend common to both calendar period and birth cohort. Results: Over the 30-year study period, the age-standardised rates significantly increased for breast cancer (EAPC: 1.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0, 1.3)), significantly decreased for cervical cancer (EAPC: −1.8% (95% CI: −2.0, −1.6)) and there was no statistically significant change for ovarian cancer (EAPC: 0.3% (95% CI: −0.1, 0.6)). For breast and cervical cancer, the best-fitting model was the APC model. Conclusions: The rates of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer remain low in comparison with western countries, and the divergent trends of breast (increasing) and cervical cancer (decreasing) in Mumbai were similar to those observed in several other Asian countries. The changing risk profile in successive generations – improved education, higher socioeconomic status, later age at marriage and at first child, and lower parity – may in combination partially explain the diverging generational changes in breast and cervical cancer in Mumbai in the last decades. PMID:21829198

Exploring spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-10-01

This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial - regional and provincial/NUTS3 - levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974-2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures - Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) - at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs - mainly Sen's slope values - to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann-Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

"The Effects of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy as an Anti-Depressive Treatment is Falling: A Meta-Analysis": Correction to Johnsen and Friborg (2015).

PubMed

2016-03-01

Reports an error in "The effects of cognitive behavioral therapy as an anti-depressive treatment is falling: A meta-analysis" by Tom J. Johnsen and Oddgeir Friborg (Psychological Bulletin, 2015[Jul], Vol 141[4], 747-768). There are several numerical errors in the flowchart summarizing the selection and exclusion of studies as contained in Figure 1. The correct number of titles not further investigated should be 27,381; abstracts rejected should be 1,181; Excluded, different treatment form should be (94). The errors do not affect the results or conclusions of the study as the final number of meta-analysable studies are the same as originally reported. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2015-20361-001.) A meta-analysis examining temporal changes (time trends) in the effects of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) as a treatment for unipolar depression was conducted. A comprehensive search of psychotherapy trials yielded 70 eligible studies from 1977 to 2014. Effect sizes (ES) were quantified as Hedge's g based on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD). Rates of remission were also registered. The publication year of each study was examined as a linear metaregression predictor of ES, and as part of a 2-way interaction with other moderators (Year × Moderator). The average ES of the BDI was 1.58 (95% CI [1.43, 1.74]), and 1.69 for the HRSD (95% CI [1.48, 1.89]). Subgroup analyses revealed that women profited more from therapy than did men (p < .05). Experienced psychologists (g = 1.55) achieved better results (p < .01) than less experienced student therapists (g = 0.98). The metaregressions examining the temporal trends indicated that the effects of CBT have declined linearly and steadily since its introduction, as measured by patients' self-reports (the BDI, p < .001), clinicians' ratings (the HRSD, p < .01) and rates of remission (p < .01). Subgroup analyses confirmed that the declining trend was present in both within-group (pre/post) designs (p < .01) and controlled trial designs (p = .02). Thus, modern CBT clinical trials seemingly provided less relief from depressive symptoms as compared with the seminal trials. Potential causes and possible implications for future studies are discussed. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Urinary and dietary analysis of 18,470 bangladeshis reveal a correlation of rice consumption with arsenic exposure and toxicity.

PubMed

Melkonian, Stephanie; Argos, Maria; Hall, Megan N; Chen, Yu; Parvez, Faruque; Pierce, Brandon; Cao, Hongyuan; Aschebrook-Kilfoy, Briseis; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Slavcovich, Vesna; Gamble, Mary; Haris, Parvez I; Graziano, Joseph H; Ahsan, Habibul

2013-01-01

We utilized data from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Araihazar, Bangladesh, to evaluate the association of steamed rice consumption with urinary total arsenic concentration and arsenical skin lesions in the overall study cohort (N=18,470) and in a subset with available urinary arsenic metabolite data (N=4,517). General linear models with standardized beta coefficients were used to estimate associations between steamed rice consumption and urinary total arsenic concentration and urinary arsenic metabolites. Logistic regression models were used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between rice intake and prevalent skin lesions at baseline. Discrete time hazard models were used to estimate discrete time (HRs) ratios and their 95% CIs for the associations between rice intake and incident skin lesions. Steamed rice consumption was positively associated with creatinine-adjusted urinary total arsenic (β=0.041, 95% CI: 0.032-0.051) and urinary total arsenic with statistical adjustment for creatinine in the model (β=0.043, 95% CI: 0.032-0.053). Additionally, we observed a significant trend in skin lesion prevalence (P-trend=0.007) and a moderate trend in skin lesion incidence (P-trend=0.07) associated with increased intake of steamed rice. This study suggests that rice intake may be a source of arsenic exposure beyond drinking water.

Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.; Sun, Xiaoming

2018-03-01

Distributions of ocean mixed layer temperature trends and trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere differ, indicating the important role of the transport of heat within the ocean for determining temperature trends. Annual-mean, linear trends in the components of the tropical ocean mixed layer heat budget for 1980-2015 are diagnosed in 4 ocean reanalyses to improve our physical understanding of multidecadal-scale SST trends. The well-known temperature trend in the tropical Pacific, with cooling in the east and warming in the west, is reproduced in each reanalysis with high statistical significance. Cooling in the east is associated with negative trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere and enhanced equatorial upwelling related to a strengthening of the subtropical cells. Negative trends in the net heat flux also occur in the western tropical Pacific, but advective warming associated with a strengthening and shoaling of the equatorial undercurrent overwhelms these negative trends. The strengthening of the equatorial undercurrent is consistent with enhanced easterly wind stress, which is applied to the ocean reanalyses, and differential sea level trends that enhance the negative zonal height gradient across the Pacific. The Pacific North Equatorial countercurrent is also strengthening in all 4 reanalyses in association with a strengthening of the sea level trough at 10°N in the central and eastern Pacific. All 4 ocean reanalyses produce warming of 0.1-0.3 K/decade in the North Atlantic with statistical significance levels ranging from below 90-99%. The Atlantic is similar to the Pacific in having the equatorial undercurrent strengthening, but indications of shoaling are less consistent in the reanalyses and the North Equatorial Countercurrent in the Atlantic is not strengthening. Large-scale ocean mixed layer warming trends in the Indian Ocean in the reanalyses are interrupted by some regional cooling close to the equator. Net surface heat flux trends are mostly negative, indicating increasing heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere. Wind stress trends applied to the ocean reanalyses are weak, but trends in the Indian Ocean equatorial undercurrent are strong. Since the Indian monsoon climate introduces strong seasonality, the annual analysis may not be adequate for studying physical processes in this ocean basin.

Vitamin D receptor gene polymorphisms, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, and melanoma: UK case-control comparisons and a meta-analysis of published VDR data

PubMed Central

Randerson-Moor, Juliette A.; Taylor, John C.; Elliott, Faye; Chang, Yu-Mei; Beswick, Samantha; Kukalizch, Kairen; Affleck, Paul; Leake, Susan; Haynes, Sue; Karpavicius, Birute; Marsden, Jerry; Gerry, Edwina; Bale, Linda; Bertram, Chandra; Field, Helen; Barth, Julian; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Swerdlow, Anthony; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Barrett, Jennifer H.; Bishop, D. Timothy; Bishop, Julia A. Newton

2009-01-01

We have carried out melanoma case-control comparisons for six vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 levels in order to investigate the role of vitamin D in melanoma susceptibility. There was no significant evidence of an association between any VDR SNP and risk in 1028 population-ascertained cases and 402 controls from Leeds, UK. In a second Leeds case-control study (299 cases and 560 controls) the FokI T allele was associated with increased melanoma risk (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06-1.91, p=0.02). In a meta-analysis in conjunction with published data from other smaller data sets (total 3769 cases and 3636 controls), the FokI T allele was associated with increased melanoma risk (odds ratio (OR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.35), and the BsmI A allele was associated with a reduced risk (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.92), in each instance under a parsimonious dominant model. In the first Leeds case-control comparison cases were more likely to have a higher body mass index (BMI) than controls (p=0.007 for linear trend). There was no evidence of a case-control difference in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 levels. In 1043 incident cases from the first Leeds case-control study, a single estimation of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 level taken at recruitment was inversely correlated with Breslow thickness (p=0.03 for linear trend). These data provide evidence to support the view that vitamin D and VDR may have a small but potentially important role in melanoma susceptibility, and putatively a greater role in disease progression. PMID:19615888

Glycemic Index, Glycemic Load, Carbohydrates, and Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Greenwood, Darren C.; Threapleton, Diane E.; Evans, Charlotte E.L.; Cleghorn, Christine L.; Nykjaer, Camilla; Woodhead, Charlotte; Burley, Victoria J.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE Diets with high glycemic index (GI), with high glycemic load (GL), or high in all carbohydrates may predispose to higher blood glucose and insulin concentrations, glucose intolerance, and risk of type 2 diabetes. We aimed to conduct a systematic literature review and dose–response meta-analysis of evidence from prospective cohorts. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in-process, Embase, CAB Abstracts, ISI Web of Science, and BIOSIS for prospective studies of GI, GL, and total carbohydrates in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes up to 17 July 2012. Data were extracted from 24 publications on 21 cohort studies. Studies using different exposure categories were combined on the same scale using linear and nonlinear dose–response trends. Summary relative risks (RRs) were estimated using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS The summary RR was 1.08 per 5 GI units (95% CI 1.02–1.15; P = 0.01), 1.03 per 20 GL units (95% CI 1.00–1.05; P = 0.02), and 0.97 per 50 g/day of carbohydrate (95% CI 0.90–1.06; P = 0.5). Dose–response trends were linear for GI and GL but more complex for total carbohydrate intake. Heterogeneity was high for all exposures (I2 >50%), partly accounted for by different covariate adjustment and length of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Included studies were observational and should be interpreted cautiously. However, our findings are consistent with protective effects of low dietary GI and GL, quantifying the range of intakes associated with lower risk. Future research could focus on the type of sugars and other carbohydrates associated with greatest risk. PMID:24265366

Sperm quality variables as indicators of bull fertility may be breed dependent.

PubMed

Morrell, Jane M; Nongbua, Thanapol; Valeanu, Sabina; Lima Verde, Isabel; Lundstedt-Enkel, Katrin; Edman, Anders; Johannisson, Anders

2017-10-01

A means of discriminating among bulls of high fertility based on sperm quality is needed by breeding centers. The objective of the study was to examine parameters of sperm quality in bulls of known fertility to identify useful indicators of fertility. Frozen semen was available from bulls of known fertility (Viking Genetics, Skara, Sweden): Swedish Red (n=31), Holstein (n=25) and Others (one each of Charolais, Limousin, Blonde, SKB). After thawing, the sperm samples were analyzed for motility (computer assisted sperm analysis), plasma membrane integrity, chromatin integrity, acrosome status, mitochondrial activity and reactive oxygen species. A fertility index score based on the adjusted 56-day non-return rate for >1000 inseminations was available for each bull. Multivariate data analysis (Partial Least Squares Regression and Orthogonal Partial Least Squares Regression) was performed to identify variables related to fertility; Pearson univariate correlations were made on the parameters of interest. Breed of bull affected the relationship of sperm quality variables and fertility index score, as follows: Swedish Red: %DNA Fragmentation Index, r=-0.56, P<0.01; intact plasma membrane, r=0.40, P<0.05; membrane damaged, not acrosome reacted, r=-0.6, P<0.01; Linearity, r=0.37, P<0.05; there was a trend towards significance for Wobble, r=0.34, P=0.08. Holstein: Linearity was significant r=0.46, P<0.05; there was a trend towards significance for Wobble, r=0.45, P=0.08. In conclusion, breed has a greater effect on sperm quality than previously realized; different parameters of sperm quality are needed to indicate potential fertility in different breeds. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The use of a calculus-based cyclone identification method for generating storm statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benestad, R. E.; Chen, D.

2006-08-01

Maps of 12 hr sea-level pressure (SLP) from the former National Meteotrological Center (NMC) and 24 hr SLP maps from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 yr re-analysis (ERA40) were used to identify extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic region. A calculus-based cyclone identification (CCI) method is introduced and evaluated, where a multiple regression against a truncated series of sinusoids was used to obtain a Fourier approximation of the north-south and east-west SLP profiles, providing a basis for analytical expressions of the derivatives. Local SLP minima were found from the zero-crossing points of the first-order derivatives for the SLP gradients where the second-order derivatives were greater than zero. Evaluation of cyclone counts indicates a good correspondence with storm track maps and independent monthly large-scale SLP anomalies. The results derived from ERA40 also revealed that the central storm pressure sometimes could be extremely deep in the re-analysis product, and it is not clear whether such outliers are truly representative of the actual events. The position and the depth of the cyclones were subjects for a study of long-term trends in cyclone number for various regions around the North Atlantic. Noting that the re-analyses may contain time-dependent biases due to changes in the observing practises, a tentative positive linear trend, statistically significant at the 10% level, was found in the number of intense storms over the Nordic countries over the period 1955-1994 in both the NMC and the ERA40 data. However, there was no significant trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic where trend analysis derived from NMC and ERA40 yielded different results. The choice of data set had a stronger influence on the results than choices such as the number of harmonics to include or spatial resolution of interpolation.

Study of colorectal mortality in the Andalusian population.

PubMed

Cayuela, A; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; Garzón-Benavides, M; Pizarro-Moreno, A; Giráldez-Gallego, A; Cordero-Fernández, C

2011-06-01

to provide up-to-date information and to analyze recent changes in colorectal cancer mortality trends in Andalusia during the period of 1980-2008 using joinpoint regression models. age- and sex-specific colorectal cancer deaths were taken from the official vital statistics published by the Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía for the years 1980 to 2008. We computed age-specific rates for each 5-year age group and calendar year and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 men and women. A joinpoint regression analysis was used for trend analysis of standardized rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years when a significant change in the linear slope of the temporal trend occurred. The best fitting points (the "join-points") are chosen where the rate significantly changes. mortality from colorectal cancer in Andalusia during the period studied has increased, from 277 deaths in 1980 to 1,227 in 2008 in men, and from 333 to 805 deaths in women. Adjusted overall colorectal cancer mortality rates increased from 7.7 to 17.0 deaths per 100,000 person-years in men and from 6.6 to 9.0 per 100,000 person-years in women Changes in mortality did not evolve similarly for men and women. Age-specific CRC mortality rates are lower in women than in men, which imply that women reach comparable levels of colorectal cancer mortality at higher ages than men. sex differences for colorectal cancer mortality have been widening in the last decade in Andalusia. In spite of the decreasing trends in age-adjusted mortality rates in women, incidence rates and the absolute numbers of deaths are still increasing, largely because of the aging of the population. Consequently, colorectal cancer still has a large impact on health care services, and this impact will continue to increase for many more years.

Life satisfaction and age: Dealing with underidentification in age-period-cohort models.

PubMed

de Ree, Joppe; Alessie, Rob

2011-07-01

Recent literature typically finds a U shaped relationship between life satisfaction and age. Age profiles, however, are not identified without forcing arbitrary restrictions on the cohort and/or time profiles. In this paper we report what can be identified about the relationship between life satisfaction and age without applying such restrictions. Also, we identify the restrictions needed to conclude that life satisfaction is U shaped in age. For the case of Germany, we find that the relationship between life satisfaction and age is indeed U shaped, but only under the untestable condition that the linear time trend is negative and that the linear trend across birth cohorts is practically flat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of treatment of fistula in ano.

PubMed

Blumetti, J; Abcarian, A; Quinteros, F; Chaudhry, V; Prasad, L; Abcarian, H

2012-05-01

Fistula-in-ano is a common medical problem affecting thousands of patients annually. In the past, the options for treatment of fistula-in-ano were limited to fistulotomy and/or seton placement. Current treatment options also include muscle-sparing techniques such as a dermal island flap, endorectal advancement flap, fibrin sealent injection, anal fistula plug, and most recently ligation of the intersphincteric fistula tract (procedure). This study seeks to evaluate types and time trends for treatment of fistula-in-ano. A retrospective review from 1975 to 2009 was performed. Data were collected and sorted into 5-year increments for type and time trends of treatment. Fistulotomy and partial fistulotomy were grouped as cutting procedures. Seton placement, fibrin sealant, dermal flap, endorectal flap, and fistula plug were grouped as noncutting procedures. Statistical analysis was performed for each time period to determine trends. With institutional review board approval, the records of 2,267 fistula operations available for analysis were included. Most of the patients were men (74 vs. 26%). Cutting procedures comprised 66.6% (n = 1510) of all procedures. Noncutting procedures were utilized in 33.4% (n = 757), including Seton placement alone 370 (16.3%), fibrin sealant 168 (7.4%), dermal or endorectal flap 147 (6.5%), and fistula plug 72 (3.2%). The distribution of operations grouped in 5-year intervals is as follows: 1975-1979, 78 cutting and one noncutting; 1980-1984, 170 cutting and 10 noncutting; 1985-1989, 54 cutting and five noncutting; 1990-1994, 37 cutting and six noncutting; 1995-1999, 367 cutting and 167 noncutting; 2000-2004, 514 cutting and 283 noncutting; 2005-2009, 290 cutting and 285 noncutting. The percentage of cutting and noncutting procedures significantly differed over time, with cutting procedures decreasing and noncutting procedures increasing proportionally (χ(2) linear-by-linear association, p < 0.05). Fistula-in-ano remains a common complex disease process. Its treatment has evolved to include a variety of noncutting techniques in addition to traditional fistulotomy. With the advent of more sphincter-sparing techniques, the number of patients undergoing fistulotomy should continue to decrease over time. Surgeons should become familiar with various surgical techniques so the treatment can be tailored to the patient.

[Effect of climate change on the fisheries conununity pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea].

PubMed

Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Tian, Yong-jun; Chen, Jia-hua

2015-03-01

Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea (OW-NECS), combined sea surface temperature (SST), were used to examine the links between diversity index, pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982/ 1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998 (warming trend period, 1972-1998), and decreased during the warm regime after 1998 (cooling trend period, 1999-2011). Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish, which contributed up to 50% of the total production as a single species, with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS, during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Excluding the filefish, the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972-1998 and 1999-2011, respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components (PC1 and PC2) of PCA for target species, which accounted for 32.43% of the total variance, showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during 1992-1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation, respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change, while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed winEOF1 had significant effect on PC1, and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1 (winEOF1) and summer EOF2 (sumEOF2) can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1, indicating that the fish community structure, which had predominantly decadal/inter-annual variation patterns, was influenced by inter-annual variations in oceanographic conditions.

Trends of VOC exposures among a nationally representative sample: Analysis of the NHANES 1988 through 2004 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Feng-Chiao; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart

2011-09-01

Exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous due to emissions from personal, commercial and industrial products, but quantitative and representative information regarding long term exposure trends is lacking. This study characterizes trends from 1988 to 2004 for the 15 VOCs measured in blood in five cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a large and representative sample of U.S. adults. Trends were evaluated at various percentiles using linear quantile regression (QR) models, which were adjusted for solvent-related occupations and cotinine levels. Most VOCs showed decreasing trends at all quantiles, e.g., median exposures declined by 2.5 (m,p-xylene) to 6.4 (tetrachloroethene) percent per year over the 15 year period. Trends varied by VOC and quantile, and were grouped into three patterns: similar decreases at all quantiles (including benzene, toluene); most rapid decreases at upper quantiles (ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chloroform, tetrachloroethene); and fastest declines at central quantiles (1,4-dichlorobenzene). These patterns reflect changes in exposure sources, e.g., upper-percentile exposures may result mostly from occupational exposure, while lower percentile exposures arise from general environmental sources. Both VOC emissions aggregated at the national level and VOC concentrations measured in ambient air also have declined substantially over the study period and are supportive of the exposure trends, although the NHANES data suggest the importance of indoor sources and personal activities on VOC exposures. While piecewise QR models suggest that exposures of several VOCs decreased little or any during the 1990's, followed by more rapid decreases from 1999 to 2004, questions are raised concerning the reliability of VOC data in several of the NHANES cohorts and its applicability as an exposure indicator, as demonstrated by the modest correlation between VOC levels in blood and personal air collected in the 1999/2000 cohort. Despite some limitations, the NHANES data provides a unique, long term and direct measurement of VOC exposures and trends.

Decrease in tropospheric O3 levels in the Northern Hemisphere observed by IASI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wespes, Catherine; Hurtmans, Daniel; Clerbaux, Cathy; Boynard, Anne; Coheur, Pierre-François

2018-05-01

In this study, we describe the recent changes in the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), onboard the Metop satellite, during the first 9 years of operation (January 2008 to May 2017). Using appropriate multivariate regression methods, we differentiate significant linear trends from other sources of O3 variations captured by IASI. The geographical patterns of the adjusted O3 trends are provided and discussed on the global scale. Given the large contribution of the natural variability in comparison with that of the trend (25-85 % vs. 15-50 %, respectively) to the total O3 variations, we estimate that additional years of IASI measurements are generally required to detect the estimated O3 trends with high precision. Globally, additional 6 months to 6 years of measurements, depending on the regions and the seasons, are needed to detect a trend of |5| DU decade-1. An exception is interestingly found during summer at mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH; ˜ 40 to ˜ 75° N), where the large absolute fitted trend values (˜ |0.5| DU yr-1 on average) combined with the small model residuals (˜ 10 %) allow for detection of a band-like pattern of significant negative trends. Despite no consensus in terms of tropospheric O3 trends having been reached from the available independent datasets (UV or IR satellites, O3 sondes, aircrafts, ground-based measurements, etc.) for the reasons that are discussed in the text, this finding is consistent with the reported decrease in O3 precursor emissions in recent years, especially in Europe and USA. The influence of continental pollution on that latitudinal band is further investigated and supported by the analysis of the O3-CO relationship (in terms of correlation coefficient, regression slope and covariance) that we found to be the strongest at northern midlatitudes in summer.

Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

Linguistic pattern analysis of misspellings of typically developing writers in grades 1-9.

PubMed

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Sillian, Elaine R; Berninger, Virginia W; Dow, Michael

2012-12-01

A mixed-methods approach, evaluating triple word-form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in Grades 1-9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade-level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between Grades 4 and 5. Similar error types were noted across age groups, but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Triple word-form theory was supported. By Grade 1, orthographic errors predominated, and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects nonlinear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling.

Statistical Analyses of Scatterplots to Identify Important Factors in Large-Scale Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Helton, J.C.

1999-04-01

The robustness of procedures for identifying patterns in scatterplots generated in Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses is investigated. These procedures are based on attempts to detect increasingly complex patterns in the scatterplots under consideration and involve the identification of (1) linear relationships with correlation coefficients, (2) monotonic relationships with rank correlation coefficients, (3) trends in central tendency as defined by means, medians and the Kruskal-Wallis statistic, (4) trends in variability as defined by variances and interquartile ranges, and (5) deviations from randomness as defined by the chi-square statistic. The following two topics related to the robustness of these procedures are consideredmore » for a sequence of example analyses with a large model for two-phase fluid flow: the presence of Type I and Type II errors, and the stability of results obtained with independent Latin hypercube samples. Observations from analysis include: (1) Type I errors are unavoidable, (2) Type II errors can occur when inappropriate analysis procedures are used, (3) physical explanations should always be sought for why statistical procedures identify variables as being important, and (4) the identification of important variables tends to be stable for independent Latin hypercube samples.« less

CircRNA accumulation in the aging mouse brain

PubMed Central

Gruner, Hannah; Cortés-López, Mariela; Cooper, Daphne A.; Bauer, Matthew; Miura, Pedro

2016-01-01

Circular RNAs (circRNAs) are a newly appreciated class of RNAs expressed across diverse phyla. These enigmatic transcripts are most commonly generated by back-splicing events from exons of protein-coding genes. This results in highly stable RNAs due to the lack of free 5′ and 3′ ends. CircRNAs are enriched in neural tissues, suggesting that they might have neural functions. Here, we sought to determine whether circRNA accumulation occurs during aging in mice. Total RNA-seq profiling of young (1 month old) and aged (22 month old) cortex, hippocampus and heart samples was performed. This led to the confident detection of 6,791 distinct circRNAs across these samples, including 675 novel circRNAs. Analysis uncovered a strong bias for circRNA upregulation during aging in neural tissues. These age-accumulation trends were verified for individual circRNAs by RT-qPCR and Northern analysis. In contrast, comparison of aged versus young hearts failed to reveal a global trend for circRNA upregulation. Age-accumulation of circRNAs in brain tissues was found to be largely independent from linear RNA expression of host genes. These findings suggest that circRNAs might play biological roles relevant to the aging nervous system. PMID:27958329

Caffeine, coffee and tea intake and urinary estrogens and estrogen metabolites in premenopausal women

PubMed Central

Sisti, Julia S.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Caporaso, Neil E.; Gu, Fangyi; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Rosner, Bernard; Xu, Xia; Ziegler, Regina; Eliassen, A. Heather

2015-01-01

Background Prior studies have found weak inverse associations between breast cancer and caffeine and coffee intake, possibly mediated through their effects on sex hormones. Methods High-performance liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry was used to quantify levels of 15 individual estrogens and estrogen metabolites (EM) among 587 premenopausal women in the Nurses’ Health Study II with mid-luteal phase urine samples and caffeine, coffee and/or tea intakes from self-reported food frequency questionnaires. Multivariate linear mixed models were used to estimate geometric means of individual EM, pathways and ratios by intake categories, and P-values for tests of linear trend. Results Compared to women in the lowest quartile of caffeine consumption, those in the top quartile had higher urinary concentrations of 16α-hydroxyestrone (28% difference; P-trend=0.01) and 16-epiestriol (13% difference; P-trend=0.04), and a decreased parent estrogens/2-, 4-, 16-pathway ratio (P-trend=0.03). Coffee intake was associated with higher 2-catechols, including 2-hydroxyestradiol (57% difference, ≥4 cups/day vs. ≤6 cups/week; P-trend=0.001) and 2-hydroxyestrone (52% difference; P-trend=0.001), and several ratio measures. Decaffeinated coffee was not associated with 2-pathway metabolism, but women in the highest (vs. lowest) category of intake (≥2 cups/day vs. ≤1–3 cups/month) had significantly lower levels of two 16-pathway metabolites, estriol (25% difference; P-trend=0.01) and 17-epiestriol (48% difference; Ptrend=0.0004). Tea intake was positively associated with 17-epiestriol (52% difference; Ptrend=0.01). Conclusion Caffeine and coffee intake were both associated with profiles of estrogen metabolism in premenopausal women. Impact Consumption of caffeine and coffee may alter patterns of premenopausal estrogen metabolism. PMID:26063478

Trend of brain tumor incidence by histological subtypes in Japan: estimation from the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan, 1973-1993.

PubMed

Kaneko, Satoshi; Nomura, Kazuhiro; Yoshimura, Takesumi; Yamaguchi, Naohito

2002-10-01

In order to estimate the risk of primary brain tumor (PBT), we attempted to estimate the national incidence rates of PBT by histological subtypes using the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan (BTR). The number of deaths due to PBT in a certain year is the sum of the deaths among patients diagnosed in different years. Registered cases in the BTR represent incident cases of PBT in the whole country multiplied by a cover rate. The cover rate is defined as the proportions of PBT cases that the Registry counts in relation to all the cases in the country in a given year. If the survival experience among the registered cases represents the survival experience of all cases, then the rate of registered deaths represents all deaths due to PBT in Japan. By this logic, we estimated the cover rates and incidence rates from 1973 to 1993 using the BTR and National Vital Statistics data. Our estimates showed three patterns of time trends: (1) a gradual linear increasing trend before the 1980s followed by a plateau (total PBT, gliomas, meningioma, and hemangioblastoma), (2) a trend with a step-up increase in the 1980s followed by a plateau (germ cell tumor and pituitary tumor), and (3) a linear increasing trend throughout the observation period with no plateau (malignant lymphoma and neurinoma). Furthermore, obvious sex differences in time trends were observed in rates of meningioma, germ cell tumor, and pituitary tumor. The results of this study demonstrated several distinctive patterns in time trends, which give us insight into the possible etiologies of brain tumors. Further epidemiological study is needed to elucidate these findings.

Prevalence of hospitalized live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women diagnosed with substance abuse at liveborn delivery: United States, 1999-2008.

PubMed

Pan, I-Jen; Yi, Hsiao-ye

2013-05-01

To describe prevalence trends in hospitalized live births affected by placental transmission of alcohol and drugs, as well as prevalence trends among parturient women hospitalized for liveborn delivery and diagnosed with substance abuse problems in the United States from 1999 to 2008. Comparison of the two sets of trends helps determine whether the observed changes in neonatal problems over time were caused by shifts in maternal substance abuse problems. This study independently identified hospitalized live births and maternal live born deliveries from discharge records in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, one of the largest hospital administrative databases. Substance-related diagnosis codes on the records were used to identify live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women with substance abuse problems. The analysis calculated prevalence differences and percentage changes over the 10 years, with Loess curves fitted to 10-year prevalence estimates to depict trend patterns. Linear and quadratic trends in prevalence were simultaneously tested using logistic regression analyses. The study also examined data on costs, primary expected payer, and length of hospital stays. From 1999 to 2008, prevalence increased for narcotic- and hallucinogen-affected live births and neonatal drug withdrawal syndrome but decreased for alcohol- and cocaine-affected live births. Maternal substance abuse at delivery showed similar trends, but prevalence of alcohol abuse remained relatively stable. Substance-affected live births required longer hospital stays and higher medical expenses, mostly billable to Medicaid. The findings highlight the urgent need for behavioral intervention and early treatment for substance-abusing pregnant women to reduce the number of substance-affected live births.

Trends in calcium supplementation, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2014.

PubMed

Rooney, Mary R; Michos, Erin D; Hootman, Katie C; Harnack, Lisa; Lutsey, Pamela L

2018-06-01

Long-term outcomes of supplemental calcium are inadequately understood. Recent research suggests that calcium from supplements may not be entirely free from unintended health consequences. Consequently, it is important to understand patterns and trends in use of calcium supplements. To report trends in supplemental calcium intake between 1999 and 2014, using NHANES data, overall and stratified by sex, race/ethnicity and age. A total of 42,038 adult NHANES participants were included in this analysis. For each survey period, we calculated the prevalence of calcium supplement use exceeding the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) and Tolerable Upper Intake Levels (UL), and mean daily supplemental calcium dose among calcium-containing supplement users. Sample weights were applied. Linear regression was used to examine trends. Overall, the prevalence of calcium supplement use at a dose ≥EAR increased between 1999 and 2000 and 2013-2014, from 2.5% (95% CI: 1.9-3.3%) to 4.6% (3.8-5.5%). Use ≥EAR peaked in 2003-2004 at 6.7% (5.3-8.5%) (p-quadratic trend<0.001). Mean supplemental calcium intake peaked in 2007-2008, thereafter decreasing (p-quadratic trend<0.001). The overall prevalence of intake ≥UL from supplemental calcium in 2013-2014 was 0.4% (0.2-0.8%). Use of supplemental calcium ≥UL peaked during 2007-2008 at 1.2% (0.7-2.0%). In all time periods, supplemental calcium intake tended to be greater among women, non-Hispanic whites and adults >60years. We described the prevalence of U.S. adults consuming supplemental calcium ≥UL and ≥ EAR. While few were consuming supplemental calcium ≥UL, consumption ≥EAR was not uncommon, especially among women, non-Hispanic whites and older adults. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secular Trends in Menarcheal Age in India-Evidence from the Indian Human Development Survey

PubMed Central

Pathak, Praveen Kumar; Tripathi, Niharika; Subramanian, S. V.

2014-01-01

Background Evidence from a number of countries in Europe and North America point towards the secular declining trend in menarcheal age with considerable spatial variations over the past two centuries. Similar trends were reported in several developing countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, data corroborating any secular trend in the menarcheal age of the Indian population remained sparse and inadequately verified. Methods We examined secular trends, regional heterogeneity and association of socioeconomic, anthropometric and contextual factors with menarcheal age among ever-married women (15–49 years) in India. Using the pseudo cohort data approach, we fit multiple linear regression models to estimate secular trends in menarcheal age of 91394 ever-married women using the Indian Human Development Survey. Results The mean age at menarche among Indian women was 13.76 years (95 % CI: 13.75, 13.77) in 2005. It declined by three months from 13.83 years (95% CI: 13.81, 13.85) among women born prior to 1955–1964, to nearly 13.62 years (95% CI: 13.58, 13.67) among women born during late 1985–1989. However, these aggregate national figures mask extensive spatial heterogeneity as mean age at menarche varied from 15.0 years in Himachal Pradesh during 1955–1964 (95% CI: 14.89–15.11) to about 12.1 years in Assam (95% CI: 11.63–12.56) during 1985–1989. Conclusion The regression analysis established a reduction of nearly one month per decade, suggesting a secular decline in age at menarche among Indian women. Notably, the menarcheal age was significantly associated with the area of residence, geographic region, linguistic groups, educational attainment, wealth status, caste and religious affiliations among Indian women. PMID:25369507

Per capita alcohol consumption in Australia: will the real trend please step forward?

PubMed

Chikritzhs, Tanya N; Allsop, Steve J; Moodie, A Rob; Hall, Wayne D

2010-11-15

To estimate the national trend in per capita consumption (PCC) of alcohol for Australians aged 15 years and older for the financial years 1990-91 to 2008-09. With the use of data obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics' catalogues and World Advertising Research Centre reports, three alternative series of annual totals of PCC of alcohol for the past 20 years (1990-91 to 2008-09) were estimated based on different assumptions about the alcohol content of wine. For the "old" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have been stable over time. For the "new" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have increased once in 2004-05 and then to have remained stable to 2008-09. For the "adjusted" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have gradually increased over time, beginning in 1998-99. Linear trend analysis was applied to identify significant trends. National trend in annual PCC of alcohol 1990-91 to 2008-09. The new and adjusted series of annual totals of PCC of alcohol showed increasing trends; the old series was stable. Until recently, official national annual totals of PCC of alcohol were underestimated and led to the mistaken impression that levels of alcohol consumption had been stable since the early 1990s. In fact, Australia's total PCC has been increasing significantly over time because of a gradual increase in the alcohol content and market share of wine and is now at one of its highest points since 1991-92. This new information is consistent with evidence of increasing alcohol-related harm and highlights the need for timely and accurate data on alcohol sales and harms across Australia.

Annual trend patterns of phytoplankton species abundance belie homogeneous taxonomical group responses to climate in the NE Atlantic upwelling.

PubMed

Bode, Antonio; Estévez, M Graciela; Varela, Manuel; Vilar, José A

2015-09-01

Phytoplankton is a sentinel of marine ecosystem change. Composed by many species with different life-history strategies, it rapidly responds to environment changes. An analysis of the abundance of 54 phytoplankton species in Galicia (NW Spain) between 1989 and 2008 to determine the main components of temporal variability in relation to climate and upwelling showed that most of this variability was stochastic, as seasonality and long term trends contributed to relatively small fractions of the series. In general, trends appeared as non linear, and species clustered in 4 groups according to the trend pattern but there was no defined pattern for diatoms, dinoflagellates or other groups. While, in general, total abundance increased, no clear trend was found for 23 species, 14 species decreased, 4 species increased during the early 1990s, and only 13 species showed a general increase through the series. In contrast, series of local environmental conditions (temperature, stratification, nutrients) and climate-related variables (atmospheric pressure indices, upwelling winds) showed a high fraction of their variability in deterministic seasonality and trends. As a result, each species responded independently to environmental and climate variability, measured by generalized additive models. Most species showed a positive relationship with nutrient concentrations but only a few showed a direct relationship with stratification and upwelling. Climate variables had only measurable effects on some species but no common response emerged. Because its adaptation to frequent disturbances, phytoplankton communities in upwelling ecosystems appear less sensitive to changes in regional climate than other communities characterized by short and well defined productive periods. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1926-1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Kegel, Rainer; Harris, Neil R. P.

1998-04-01

Total ozone measurements have been made at Arosa, Switzerland (47°N), from 1926 through the present day, forming the longest total ozone series in the world. The record has been recently homogenized. Ozone trends are calculated to be -(2.3±0.6)% per decade for annual means (larger losses are found in winter and spring, approximately -4% per decade for trends in January, February, and March) when a simple linear change from 1970 to 1996 is assumed. In addition, total ozone trends are calculated using multiple regression models involving combinations of explanatory variables for the 11-year solar cycle, local meteorological conditions (the Mount Säntis high-altitude temperature record), stratospheric aerosol loading from volcanoes, and stratospheric chlorine loading. When the terms for the solar cycle, the stratospheric aerosol loading and the high mountain temperature record were included, the annually averaged ozone trends were found to be -(1.9±0.6)% per decade. While a statistically significant relation is found between total ozone and indices of aerosol loadings of the stratosphere, the recent decrease in total ozone cannot be accounted for by the higher average aerosol content in the second half of the century. Finally, the decrease in ozone in the stratosphere is estimated to be approximately 30% larger than that found for total ozone, when a crude estimate of the increase in tropospheric ozone is included. The acceleration observed in total ozone trends between the 1970s and the 1980s over northern midlatitudes [e.g., Harris et al., 1997] might be partially attributed to the larger increase in tropospheric ozone in the 1970s.

Prevalence of Hospitalized Live Births Affected by Alcohol and Drugs and Parturient Women Diagnosed with Substance Abuse at Liveborn Delivery: United States, 1999–2008

PubMed Central

Pan, I-Jen; Yi, Hsiao-ye

2015-01-01

Objective To describe prevalence trends in hospitalized live births affected by placental transmission of alcohol and drugs, as well as prevalence trends among parturient women hospitalized for liveborn delivery and diagnosed with substance abuse problems in the United States from 1999 to 2008. Comparison of the two sets of trends helps determine whether the observed changes in neonatal problems over time were caused by shifts in maternal substance abuse problems. Methods This study independently identified hospitalized live births and maternal live born deliveries from discharge records in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, one of the largest hospital administrative databases. Substance-related diagnosis codes on the records were used to identify live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women with substance abuse problems. The analysis calculated prevalence differences and percentage changes over the 10 years, with Loess curves fitted to 10-year prevalence estimates to depict trend patterns. Linear and quadratic trends in prevalence were simultaneously tested using logistic regression analyses. The study also examined data on costs, primary expected payer, and length of hospital stays. Results From 1999 to 2008, prevalence increased for narcotic- and hallucinogen-affected live births and neonatal drug withdrawal syndrome but decreased for alcohol- and cocaine-affected live births. Maternal substance abuse at delivery showed similar trends, but prevalence of alcohol abuse remained relatively stable. Substance-affected live births required longer hospital stays and higher medical expenses, mostly billable to Medicaid. Conclusions The findings highlight the urgent need for behavioral intervention and early treatment for substance-abusing pregnant women to reduce the number of substance-affected live births. PMID:22688539

Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and support vector machine analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oguntunde, Philip G.; Lischeid, Gunnar; Dietrich, Ottfried

2018-03-01

This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease ( P < 0.001) in rice yield, pan evaporation, solar radiation, and wind speed declined significantly. Eight principal components exhibited an eigenvalue > 1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.

Are physical activity levels associated with better health outcomes in people with epilepsy?

PubMed

Häfele, César Augusto; Freitas, Matheus Pintanel; da Silva, Marcelo Cozzensa; Rombaldi, Airton José

2017-07-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the association of physical activity in three categories (inactive, insufficiently active and active) with health outcomes in people with epilepsy. The dependent variables and the instruments used in the study were: a) quality of life - measured by Quality of Life in Epilepsy-31 for adults and Quality of Life in Epilepsy for Adolescents, b) side effects of medication - measured by Adverse Events Profile, c) depression - measured by Neurological Disorders Depression Inventory for Epilepsy, and d) state and trait anxiety - measured by State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Physical activity levels were analyzed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) for adults in the commuting and leisure domains and Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents (PAQ-A). Simple and multiple linear regression was used in the statistical analysis. The cross-sectional study with one hundred and one individuals was conducted in Pelotas/RS, Brazil, at the Neurology Clinic of the Faculty of Medicine of the Federal University of Pelotas. In the crude analysis, physical activity was positively associated with quality of life (p<0.001) and negatively associated with depression (p=0.046), state of anxiety (p=0.014), trait of anxiety (p=0.015) and side effect of medication (p=0.01). In addition, physical activity levels explained 10% of the quality of life (R 2 =0.10). In the adjusted analysis, physical activity remained associated with side effect of medication (p=0.014) and was not associated with trait anxiety (p=0.066). However, quality of life showed a positive linear trend (p=0.001) while depression (p=0.033) and anxiety state (p=0.004) showed a negative trend according to physical activity levels. Physical activity was associated with health outcomes, and can be a nonpharmacological treatment in people with epilepsy for improving health and life conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.