The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2016-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

Breakfast intake among adults with type 2 diabetes: is bigger better?

PubMed Central

Jarvandi, Soghra; Schootman, Mario; Racette, Susan B.

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the association between breakfast energy and total daily energy intake among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Design Cross-sectional study. Daily energy intake was computed from a 24-h dietary recall. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association between daily energy intake (dependent variable) and quartiles of energy intake at breakfast (independent variable) expressed as either absolute or relative (% of total daily energy intake) terms. Orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used to test for linear and quadratic trends. Models were controlled for sex, age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, physical activity and smoking. In addition, we used separate multiple regression models to test the effect of quartiles of absolute and relative breakfast energy on intake at lunch, dinner, and snacks. Setting The 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Subjects Participants aged ≥ 30 years with self-reported history of diabetes (N = 1,146). Results Daily energy intake increased as absolute breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001; quadratic trend, P = 0.02), but decreased as relative breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001). In addition, while higher quartiles of absolute breakfast intake had no associations with energy intake at subsequent meals, higher quartiles of relative breakfast intake were associated with lower energy intake during all subsequent meals and snacks (P < 0.05). Conclusions Consuming a breakfast that provided less energy or comprised a greater proportion of daily energy intake was associated with lower total daily energy intake in adults with type 2 diabetes. PMID:25529061

On summary measure analysis of linear trend repeated measures data: performance comparison with two competing methods.

PubMed

Vossoughi, Mehrdad; Ayatollahi, S M T; Towhidi, Mina; Ketabchi, Farzaneh

2012-03-22

The summary measure approach (SMA) is sometimes the only applicable tool for the analysis of repeated measurements in medical research, especially when the number of measurements is relatively large. This study aimed to describe techniques based on summary measures for the analysis of linear trend repeated measures data and then to compare performances of SMA, linear mixed model (LMM), and unstructured multivariate approach (UMA). Practical guidelines based on the least squares regression slope and mean of response over time for each subject were provided to test time, group, and interaction effects. Through Monte Carlo simulation studies, the efficacy of SMA vs. LMM and traditional UMA, under different types of covariance structures, was illustrated. All the methods were also employed to analyze two real data examples. Based on the simulation and example results, it was found that the SMA completely dominated the traditional UMA and performed convincingly close to the best-fitting LMM in testing all the effects. However, the LMM was not often robust and led to non-sensible results when the covariance structure for errors was misspecified. The results emphasized discarding the UMA which often yielded extremely conservative inferences as to such data. It was shown that summary measure is a simple, safe and powerful approach in which the loss of efficiency compared to the best-fitting LMM was generally negligible. The SMA is recommended as the first choice to reliably analyze the linear trend data with a moderate to large number of measurements and/or small to moderate sample sizes.

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Metabolites as novel biomarkers for childhood obesity-related traits in Mexican-American children.

PubMed

Farook, V S; Reddivari, L; Chittoor, G; Puppala, S; Arya, R; Fowler, S P; Hunt, K J; Curran, J E; Comuzzie, A G; Lehman, D M; Jenkinson, C P; Lynch, J L; DeFronzo, R A; Blangero, J; Hale, D E; Duggirala, R; Vanamala, J

2015-08-01

Although newer approaches have identified several metabolites associated with obesity, there is paucity of such information in paediatric populations, especially among Mexican-Americans (MAs) who are at high risk of obesity. Therefore, we performed a global serum metabolite screening in MA children to identify biomarkers of childhood obesity. We selected 15 normal-weight, 13 overweight and 14 obese MA children (6-17 years) and performed global serum metabolite screening using ultra-performance liquid chromatography/quadruple orthogonal acceleration time of flight tandem micro mass spectrometer. Metabolite values were analysed to assess mean differences among groups using one-way analysis of variance, to test for linear trend across groups and to examine Pearson's correlations between them and seven cardiometabolic traits (CMTs): body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model of assessment-insulin resistance, triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. We identified 14 metabolites exhibiting differences between groups as well as linear trend across groups with nominal statistical significance. After adjustment for multiple testing, mean differences and linear trends across groups remained significant (P < 5.9 × 10(-5) ) for L-thyronine, bradykinin and naringenin. Of the examined metabolite-CMT trait pairs, all metabolites except for 2-methylbutyroylcarnitine were nominally associated with two or more CMTs, some exhibiting significance even after accounting for multiple testing (P < 3.6 × 10(-3) ). To our knowledge, this study - albeit pilot in nature - is the first study to identify these metabolites as novel biomarkers of childhood obesity and its correlates. These findings signify the need for future systematic investigations of metabolic pathways underlying childhood obesity. © 2014 World Obesity.

Observed changes in relative humidity and dew point temperature in coastal regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P.; Sabziparvar, A. A.; Tabari, Hossein

2012-12-01

The analysis of trends in hydroclimatic parameters and assessment of their statistical significance have recently received a great concern to clarify whether or not there is an obvious climate change. In the current study, parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests were applied for detecting annual and seasonal trends in the relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature ( T dew) time series at ten coastal weather stations in Iran during 1966-2005. The serial structure of the data was considered, and the significant serial correlations were eliminated using the trend-free pre-whitening method. The results showed that annual RH increased by 1.03 and 0.28 %/decade at the northern and southern coastal regions of the country, respectively, while annual T dew increased by 0.29 and 0.15°C per decade at the northern and southern regions, respectively. The significant trends were frequent in the T dew series, but they were observed only at 2 out of the 50 RH series. The results showed that the difference between the results of the parametric and nonparametric tests was small, although the parametric test detected larger significant trends in the RH and T dew time series. Furthermore, the differences between the results of the trend tests were not related to the normality of the statistical distribution.

The Analysis of Leaf Shape Using Fractal Geometry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartvigsen, Gregg

2000-01-01

Describes ways to examine leaf structure and shape using fractal geometry. Students can test hypotheses using the leaves of replicated plants to look for non-linear trends in leaf shape along the stems of plants, across species, and under different environmental growth conditions. (SAH)

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2017-01-01

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE PAGES

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2016-10-20

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Cardiac Stress Test Trends Among US Patients Younger Than 65 Years, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Kini, Vinay; McCarthy, Fenton H; Dayoub, Elias; Bradley, Steven M; Masoudi, Frederick A; Ho, P Michael; Groeneveld, Peter W

2016-12-01

After a period of rapid growth, use of cardiac stress testing has recently decreased among Medicare beneficiaries and in a large integrated health system. However, it is not known whether declines in cardiac stress testing are universal or are confined to certain populations. To determine trends in rates of cardiac stress testing among a large and diverse cohort of commercially insured patients. A serial cross-sectional study with time trends was conducted using administrative claims from all members aged 25 to 64 years belonging to a large, national managed care company from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2012. Linear trends in rates were determined using negative binomial regression models with procedure count as the dependent variable, calendar quarter as the key independent variable, and the size of the population as a logged offset term. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2012. Age- and sex-adjusted rates of cardiac stress tests per calendar quarter (reported as number of tests per 100 000 person-years). A total of 2 085 591 cardiac stress tests were performed among 32 921 838 persons (mean [SD] age, 43.2 [10.9] years; 16 625 528 women [50.5%] and 16 296 310 [49.5%] men; 7 604 945 nonwhite [23.1%]). There was a 3.0% increase in rates of cardiac stress testing from 2005 (3486 tests; 95% CI, 3458-3514) to 2012 (3589 tests; 95% CI, 3559-3619; P = .01 for linear trend). Use of nuclear single-photon emission computed tomography decreased by 14.9% from 2005 (1907 tests; 95% CI, 1888-1926) to 2012 (1623 tests; 95% CI, 1603-1643; P = .03). Use of stress echocardiography increased by 27.8% from 2005 (709 tests; 95% CI, 697-721) to 2012 (906 tests; 95% CI, 894 to 920; P < .001). Use of exercise electrocardiography increased by 12.5% from 2005 (861 tests; 95% CI, 847-873) to 2012 (969 tests; 95% CI, 953-985; P < .001). Use of other stress testing modalities increased 65.5% from 2006 (55 tests; 95% CI, 51-59) to 2012 (91 tests; 95% CI, 87-95; P < .001). For individuals aged 25 to 34 years, rates of cardiac stress testing increased 59.1% from 2005 (543 tests; 95% CI, 532-554) to 2012 (864 tests; 95% CI, 852-876; P < .001). For individuals aged 55 to 64 years, rates of cardiac stress testing decreased by 12.3% from 2005 (7894 tests; 95% CI, 7820-7968) to 2012 (6923 tests; 95% CI, 6853-6993; P < .001). In contrast to declines in the use of cardiac stress testing in some health care systems, we observed a small increase in its use among a nationally representative cohort of commercially insured patients. Our findings suggest that observed trends in the use of cardiac stress testing may have been driven more by unique characteristics of populations and health systems than national efforts to reduce the overuse of testing.

Simplified large African carnivore density estimators from track indices.

PubMed

Winterbach, Christiaan W; Ferreira, Sam M; Funston, Paul J; Somers, Michael J

2016-01-01

The range, population size and trend of large carnivores are important parameters to assess their status globally and to plan conservation strategies. One can use linear models to assess population size and trends of large carnivores from track-based surveys on suitable substrates. The conventional approach of a linear model with intercept may not intercept at zero, but may fit the data better than linear model through the origin. We assess whether a linear regression through the origin is more appropriate than a linear regression with intercept to model large African carnivore densities and track indices. We did simple linear regression with intercept analysis and simple linear regression through the origin and used the confidence interval for ß in the linear model y  =  αx  + ß, Standard Error of Estimate, Mean Squares Residual and Akaike Information Criteria to evaluate the models. The Lion on Clay and Low Density on Sand models with intercept were not significant ( P  > 0.05). The other four models with intercept and the six models thorough origin were all significant ( P  < 0.05). The models using linear regression with intercept all included zero in the confidence interval for ß and the null hypothesis that ß = 0 could not be rejected. All models showed that the linear model through the origin provided a better fit than the linear model with intercept, as indicated by the Standard Error of Estimate and Mean Square Residuals. Akaike Information Criteria showed that linear models through the origin were better and that none of the linear models with intercept had substantial support. Our results showed that linear regression through the origin is justified over the more typical linear regression with intercept for all models we tested. A general model can be used to estimate large carnivore densities from track densities across species and study areas. The formula observed track density = 3.26 × carnivore density can be used to estimate densities of large African carnivores using track counts on sandy substrates in areas where carnivore densities are 0.27 carnivores/100 km 2 or higher. To improve the current models, we need independent data to validate the models and data to test for non-linear relationship between track indices and true density at low densities.

Series length used during trend analysis affects sensitivity to changes in progression rate in the ocular hypertension treatment study.

PubMed

Gardiner, Stuart K; Demirel, Shaban; De Moraes, Carlos Gustavo; Liebmann, Jeffrey M; Cioffi, George A; Ritch, Robert; Gordon, Mae O; Kass, Michael A

2013-02-15

Trend analysis techniques to detect glaucomatous progression typically assume a constant rate of change. This study uses data from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study to assess whether this assumption decreases sensitivity to changes in progression rate, by including earlier periods of stability. Series of visual fields (mean 24 per eye) completed at 6-month intervals from participants randomized initially to observation were split into subseries before and after the initiation of treatment (the "split-point"). The mean deviation rate of change (MDR) was derived using these entire subseries, and using only the window length (W) tests nearest the split-point, for different window lengths of W tests. A generalized estimating equation model was used to detect changes in MDR occurring at the split-point. Using shortened subseries with W = 7 tests, the MDR slowed by 0.142 dB/y upon initiation of treatment (P < 0.001), and the proportion of eyes showing "rapid deterioration" (MDR <-0.5 dB/y with P < 5%) decreased from 11.8% to 6.5% (P < 0.001). Using the entire sequence, no significant change in MDR was detected (P = 0.796), and there was no change in the proportion of eyes progressing (P = 0.084). Window lengths 6 ≤ W ≤ 9 produced similar benefits. Event analysis revealed a beneficial treatment effect in this dataset. This effect was not detected by linear trend analysis applied to entire series, but was detected when using shorter subseries of length between six and nine fields. Using linear trend analysis on the entire field sequence may not be optimal for detecting and monitoring progression. Nonlinear analyses may be needed for long series of fields. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000125.).

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Íris M.; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J.

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement. PMID:28484413

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations.

PubMed

Oliveira, Íris M; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement ( M ageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement.

Stability analysis and trend study of a balloon tethered in a wind, with experimental comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Redd, L. T.; Bland, S. R.; Bennett, R. M.

1973-01-01

A stability analysis and trend study for a balloon tethered in a steady wind are presented. The linearized, stability-derivative type analysis includes balloon aerodynamics, buoyancy, mass (including apparent mass), and static forces resulting from the tether cable. The analysis has been applied to a balloon 7.64 m in length, and the results are compared with those from tow tests of this balloon. This comparison shows that the analysis gives reasonable predictions for the damping, frequencies, modes of motion, and stability boundaries exhibited by the balloon. A trend study for the 7.64-m balloon was made to illustrate how the stability boundaries are affected by changes in individual stability parameters. The trends indicated in this study may also be applicable to many other tethered-balloon systems.

The increase in symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood among Icelandic adolescents: time trend between 2006 and 2016.

PubMed

Thorisdottir, Ingibjorg E; Asgeirsdottir, Bryndis B; Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig; Allegrante, John P; Sigfusdottir, Inga D

2017-10-01

Both research and popular media reports suggest that adolescent mental health has been deteriorating across societies with advanced economies. This study sought to describe the trends in self-reported symptoms of depressed mood and anxiety among Icelandic adolescents. Data for this study come from repeated, cross-sectional, population-based school surveys of 43 482 Icelandic adolescents in 9th and 10th grade, with six waves of pooled data from 2006 to 2016. We used analysis of variance, linear regression and binomial logistic regression to examine trends in symptom scores of anxiety and depressed mood over time. Gender differences in trends of high symptoms were also tested for interactions. Linear regression analysis showed a significant linear increase over the course of the study period in mean symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood for girls only; however, symptoms of anxiety among boys decreased. The proportion of adolescents reporting high depressive symptoms increased by 1.6% for boys and 6.8% for girls; the proportion of those reporting high anxiety symptoms increased by 1.3% for boys and 8.6% for girls. Over the study period, the odds for reporting high depressive symptoms and high anxiety symptoms were significantly higher for both genders. Girls were more likely to report high symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood than boys. Self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood have increased over time among Icelandic adolescents. Our findings suggest that future research needs to look beyond mean changes and examine the trends among those adolescents who report high symptoms of emotional distress. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

Gender-Specific Trends in Educational Attainment and Self-Rated Health, 1972–2002

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Needham, Belinda L.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We tested whether self-rated health has improved over time (1972–2002) for women and men. We also considered the degree to which historical gains in educational attainment help to explain any observed trends. Methods. Using 21 years of repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey, we estimated a series of ordered logistic regression models predicting self-rated health. Results. Our results show that women’s health status has steadily improved over the 30-year period under study, and these improvements are largely explained by gains in educational attainment. We also found that the health trend for men is nonlinear, suggesting significant fluctuations in health status over time. Conclusions. Based on the linear health status trend and strong mediation pattern for women, and the nonlinear health status trend for men, women have benefited more than men, in terms of self-rated health, from increased educational attainment. PMID:16735623

Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Brown, Ross D.

2007-11-01

Monotonic trend analysis of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) over the period 1972-2006 with the Mann-Kendall test reveals significant declines in SCE during spring over North America and Eurasia, with lesser declines during winter and some increases in fall SCE. The weekly mean trend attains -1.28, -0.78, and -0.48 × 106 km2 (35 years)-1 over the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Eurasia, respectively. The standardized SCE time series vary and trend coherently over Eurasia and North America, with evidence of a poleward amplification of decreasing SCE trends during spring. Multiple linear regression analyses reveal a significant dependence of the retreat of the spring continental SCE on latitude and elevation. The poleward amplification is consistent with an enhanced snow-albedo feedback over northern latitudes that acts to reinforce an initial anomaly in the cryospheric system.

Identification of trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhajharia, Deepak; Yadav, Brijesh K.; Maske, Sunil; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Kar, Anil K.

2012-01-01

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.

Flood Frequency Analysis Under Non-stationarity Conditions: the Case of Southern Brazilian Hydroelectric Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartiko, Daniel; Chaffe, Pedro; Bonumá, Nadia

2017-04-01

Floods may be strongly affected by climate, land-use, land-cover and water infrastructure changes. However, it is common to model this process as stationary. This approach has been questioned, especially when it involves estimate of the frequency and magnitude of extreme events for designing and maintaining hydraulic structures, as those responsible for flood control and dams safety. Brazil is the third largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world and many of the country's dams are located in the Southern Region. So, it seems appropriate to investigate the presence of non-stationarity in the affluence in these plants. In our study, we used historical flood data from the Brazilian National Grid Operator (ONS) to explore trends in annual maxima in river flow of the 38 main rivers flowing to Southern Brazilian reservoirs (records range from 43 to 84 years). In the analysis, we assumed a two-parameter log-normal distribution a linear regression model was applied in order to allow for the mean to vary with time. We computed recurrence reduction factors to characterize changes in the return period of an initially estimated 100 year-flood by a log-normal stationary model. To evaluate whether or not a particular site exhibits positive trend, we only considered data series with linear regression slope coefficients that exhibit significance levels (p<0,05). The significance level was calculated using the one-sided Student's test. The trend model residuals were analyzed using the Anderson-Darling normality test, the Durbin-Watson test for the independence and the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedasticity. Our results showed that 22 of the 38 data series analyzed have a significant positive trend. The trends were mainly in three large basins: Iguazu, Uruguay and Paranapanema, which suffered changes in land use and flow regularization in the last years. The calculated return period for the series that presented positive trend varied from 50 to 77 years for a 100 year-flood estimated by stationary model when considering a planning horizon equal to ten years. We conclude that attention should be given for future projects developed in this area, including the incorporation of non-stationarity analysis, search for answers to such changes and incorporation of new data to increase the reliability of the estimates.

Free-piston Stirling engine/linear alternator 1000-hour endurance test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rauch, J.; Dochat, G.

1985-01-01

The Free Piston Stirling Engine (FPSE) has the potential to be a long lived, highly reliable, power conversion device attractive for many product applications such as space, residential or remote site power. The purpose of endurance testing the FPSE was to demonstrate its potential for long life. The endurance program was directed at obtaining 1000 operational hours under various test conditions: low power, full stroke, duty cycle and stop/start. Critical performance parameters were measured to note any change and/or trend. Inspections were conducted to measure and compare critical seal/bearing clearances. The engine performed well throughout the program, completing more than 1100 hours. Hardware inspection, including the critical clearances, showed no significant change in hardware or clearance dimensions. The performance parameters did not exhibit any increasing or decreasing trends. The test program confirms the potential for long life FPSE applications.

Factors Associated With Health Care Utilization of Recurrent Clostridium difficile Infection in New York State.

PubMed

Mathews, Steven N; Lamm, Ryan; Yang, Jie; Park, Jihye; Tzimas, Demetrios; Buscaglia, Jonathan M; Pryor, Aurora; Talamini, Mark; Telem, Dana; Bucobo, Juan C

2018-03-21

The incidence of infection due to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and subsequent economic burden are substantial. The impact of changing practice patterns on demographics at risk and utilization of health care resources for recurrence of CDI remains unclear. A total of 291,163 patients hospitalized for CDI were identified from 1995 to 2014 from the New York SPARCS database. The χ test, the Welch t test, and multivariable logistic regression analysis were performed to evaluate factors related to readmission. Hospital admissions and readmissions for CDI peaked in 2008 at 20,487 and 13,795, respectively, and have since decreased (linear trend, 0.9706 and 0.9464, respectively; P<0.0001). In total, 60,077 (21%) patients required ≥2 admissions. Risk factors for readmission included: age 55 to 74, government insurance, hypertension, diabetes, anemia, hypothyroidism, chronic pulmonary disease, rheumatoid arthritis, renal failure, peripheral vascular disease, and depression (all P<0.05). Trends in surgery showed a similar peak in 2008 at 165 and have since decreased (linear trend, 0.8660; P<0.0001). A total of 1830 (0.63%) patients with CDI underwent surgery, with emergent being more common than elective (71% vs. 29%). Hospital admissions and readmissions for CDI peaked in 2008 and have since been steadily declining. These trends may be secondary to improved diagnostic capabilities and evolving antibiotic regimens. More than 1 in 5 hospitalized patients had at least 1 readmission. Numerous risk factors for these patients have been identified. Although <1% of all patients with CDI undergo surgery, these rates have also been declining.

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

1995-01-01

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

1984-01-01

Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

Epidemiology and Trends in Incidence of Kidney Cancer in Iran.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Pournamdar, Zahra; Salehiniya, Hamid

2015-01-01

Kidney cancer has shown an increasing trend in recent decades. This study aimed to determine change in the incidence rate between 2003 and 2009 in Iran. In this study, national cancer registry data were used. Crude incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 and age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were computed using the direct standardization method and the world standard population. Significant trend of incidence rates was examined by the Cochran-Armitage test for linear trend. A total of 6,944 cases of kidney cancer were reported. The incidence cases increased from 595 patients in 2003 to 1,387 patients in 2009. Sex ratio (male to female) was 1.67. ASR also increased from 1.18 in 2003 to 2.52 in 2009 per 100,000, but the increasing trend was not significant. A slow increasing trend of incidence rate was observed in the study population. This may be due to an increase of risk factors. It is suggested to perform a study on risk factors for the cancer.

Run charts revisited: a simulation study of run chart rules for detection of non-random variation in health care processes.

PubMed

Anhøj, Jacob; Olesen, Anne Vingaard

2014-01-01

A run chart is a line graph of a measure plotted over time with the median as a horizontal line. The main purpose of the run chart is to identify process improvement or degradation, which may be detected by statistical tests for non-random patterns in the data sequence. We studied the sensitivity to shifts and linear drifts in simulated processes using the shift, crossings and trend rules for detecting non-random variation in run charts. The shift and crossings rules are effective in detecting shifts and drifts in process centre over time while keeping the false signal rate constant around 5% and independent of the number of data points in the chart. The trend rule is virtually useless for detection of linear drift over time, the purpose it was intended for.

Real-time open-loop frequency response analysis of flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosworth, J. T.; West, J. C.

1986-01-01

A technique has been developed to compare the open-loop frequency response of a flight test aircraft real time with linear analysis predictions. The result is direct feedback to the flight control systems engineer on the validity of predictions and adds confidence for proceeding with envelope expansion. Further, gain and phase margins can be tracked for trends in a manner similar to the techniques used by structural dynamics engineers in tracking structural modal damping.

Clinical evaluation of a novel population-based regression analysis for detecting glaucomatous visual field progression.

PubMed

Kovalska, M P; Bürki, E; Schoetzau, A; Orguel, S F; Orguel, S; Grieshaber, M C

2011-04-01

The distinction of real progression from test variability in visual field (VF) series may be based on clinical judgment, on trend analysis based on follow-up of test parameters over time, or on identification of a significant change related to the mean of baseline exams (event analysis). The aim of this study was to compare a new population-based method (Octopus field analysis, OFA) with classic regression analyses and clinical judgment for detecting glaucomatous VF changes. 240 VF series of 240 patients with at least 9 consecutive examinations available were included into this study. They were independently classified by two experienced investigators. The results of such a classification served as a reference for comparison for the following statistical tests: (a) t-test global, (b) r-test global, (c) regression analysis of 10 VF clusters and (d) point-wise linear regression analysis. 32.5 % of the VF series were classified as progressive by the investigators. The sensitivity and specificity were 89.7 % and 92.0 % for r-test, and 73.1 % and 93.8 % for the t-test, respectively. In the point-wise linear regression analysis, the specificity was comparable (89.5 % versus 92 %), but the sensitivity was clearly lower than in the r-test (22.4 % versus 89.7 %) at a significance level of p = 0.01. A regression analysis for the 10 VF clusters showed a markedly higher sensitivity for the r-test (37.7 %) than the t-test (14.1 %) at a similar specificity (88.3 % versus 93.8 %) for a significant trend (p = 0.005). In regard to the cluster distribution, the paracentral clusters and the superior nasal hemifield progressed most frequently. The population-based regression analysis seems to be superior to the trend analysis in detecting VF progression in glaucoma, and may eliminate the drawbacks of the event analysis. Further, it may assist the clinician in the evaluation of VF series and may allow better visualization of the correlation between function and structure owing to VF clusters. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 2: brominated flame retardants.

PubMed

Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Drimmie, Robert J; Muir, Derek C G; Letcher, Robert J

2013-09-01

Brominated flame retardants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Significant linear increases were found for sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (ΣPBDE), BDE100, BDE153, and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). Average increases of 5.0% per year (range: 2.9-7.6%/year) were found for the subadult polar bears. BDE47 and BDE99 concentrations did not show a significant linear trend over time, but rather a significant non-linear trend peaking between 2000 and 2004. The average ΣPBDE concentrations increased 2.3 fold from 25.0ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 15.3-34.7ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 58.5ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 43.6-73.4ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Analyses of δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes in hair revealed no clear linear temporal trends in trophic level or carbon source, respectively, and non-linear trends differed among sex and age groups. These increasing concentrations of organobromine contaminants contribute to complex organohalogen mixture, already causing health effects to the East Greenland polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A trend analysis of laboratory positive propoxyphene workplace urine drug screens before and after the product recall.

PubMed

Price, James

2015-01-01

Propoxyphene was withdrawn from the US market in November 2010. This drug is still tested for in the workplace as part of expanded panel nonregulated testing. A convenience sample of urine specimens (n = 7838) were provided by workers from various industries. The percentage of positive specimens with 95% confidence intervals was calculated for each year of the study. Logistic regression was used to assess the impact of the year upon the propoxyphene result. The prevalence of positive propoxyphene tests was much higher before the product's withdrawal from the market. Logistic regression provided evidence of a decreasing linear trend (P < 0.000; β = -0.71). The odds ratio signifies that for every additional year the urine specimens were 0.49 times less likely to be positive for propoxyphene. This favors the determination that the change in propoxyphene positive drug test over the years is not by chance. The conclusion supports no longer performing nonregulated workplace propoxyphene urine drug testing for this population.

Trends in asthma mortality in young people in southern Brazil.

PubMed

Chatkin, J M; Barreto, S M; Fonseca, N A; Gutiérrez, C A; Sears, M R

1999-03-01

Mortality from asthma increased and is now declining in some countries, but little is known about these trends in South America. We aimed to assess trends in mortality from asthma in southern Brazil in children and young adults. Death certificates of 425 people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul aged between 5 and 39 years in whom asthma was reported to be the underlying cause of death during the period 1970 to 1992 were reviewed. Population data were available in 10-year age groups. Testing for trends in mortality rates was conducted using linear and log-linear regression procedures. Asthma mortality rates in the age groups 5 to 19 and 20 to 39 years ranged between 0.04 and 0.39/100,000 and 0.28 to 0.75/100,000, respectively, and were nonuniformly distributed over the study period. The mean annual increase in rate in 5- to 19-year olds was +0.01 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.016), an average annual percentage increase of +6.8% (95% CI 3% to 11%), with a total increase of 352% between 1970 and 1992. This increase was not due to a shift in labeling from bronchitis to asthma. In the 20 to 39-year age group, asthma and bronchitis mortality rates showed no trend to increase or decrease. Asthma mortality in southern Brazil is low, but rose significantly between 1970 and 1992 in the 5 to 19-year age group. This trend differs from that found in other states of Brazil and several other Latin American countries. Reasons for this difference remain unclear.

Caffeine, coffee and tea intake and urinary estrogens and estrogen metabolites in premenopausal women

PubMed Central

Sisti, Julia S.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Caporaso, Neil E.; Gu, Fangyi; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Rosner, Bernard; Xu, Xia; Ziegler, Regina; Eliassen, A. Heather

2015-01-01

Background Prior studies have found weak inverse associations between breast cancer and caffeine and coffee intake, possibly mediated through their effects on sex hormones. Methods High-performance liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry was used to quantify levels of 15 individual estrogens and estrogen metabolites (EM) among 587 premenopausal women in the Nurses’ Health Study II with mid-luteal phase urine samples and caffeine, coffee and/or tea intakes from self-reported food frequency questionnaires. Multivariate linear mixed models were used to estimate geometric means of individual EM, pathways and ratios by intake categories, and P-values for tests of linear trend. Results Compared to women in the lowest quartile of caffeine consumption, those in the top quartile had higher urinary concentrations of 16α-hydroxyestrone (28% difference; P-trend=0.01) and 16-epiestriol (13% difference; P-trend=0.04), and a decreased parent estrogens/2-, 4-, 16-pathway ratio (P-trend=0.03). Coffee intake was associated with higher 2-catechols, including 2-hydroxyestradiol (57% difference, ≥4 cups/day vs. ≤6 cups/week; P-trend=0.001) and 2-hydroxyestrone (52% difference; P-trend=0.001), and several ratio measures. Decaffeinated coffee was not associated with 2-pathway metabolism, but women in the highest (vs. lowest) category of intake (≥2 cups/day vs. ≤1–3 cups/month) had significantly lower levels of two 16-pathway metabolites, estriol (25% difference; P-trend=0.01) and 17-epiestriol (48% difference; Ptrend=0.0004). Tea intake was positively associated with 17-epiestriol (52% difference; Ptrend=0.01). Conclusion Caffeine and coffee intake were both associated with profiles of estrogen metabolism in premenopausal women. Impact Consumption of caffeine and coffee may alter patterns of premenopausal estrogen metabolism. PMID:26063478

Modified visual field trend analysis.

PubMed

De Moraes, Carlos Gustavo V; Ritch, Robert; Tello, Celso; Liebmann, Jeffrey M

2011-01-01

Visual field trend analysis can be influenced by outlying values that may disproportionately affect estimation of the rate of change. We tested a modified approach to visual field trend analysis to minimize this problem. Automated pointwise linear regression (PLR) was used in glaucoma patients with ≥13 SITA-Standard 24-2 VF tests in either eye. In the control group (Group A), conventional PLR using the entire set of VF tests was carried out. In the other 3 groups (study groups), a truncated analysis was done using only the first and last 3 (Group B), first and last 4 (Group C), or first and last 5 (Group D) VF tests. We compared the global slopes (dB/y), number of eyes experiencing significant progression, and significant improvement between groups. Ninety eyes of 90 patients were evaluated. The mean number±SD of VF tests was 15.7±2.6, spanning 7.8±1.7 years. The study groups showed similar global rates of VF change as the control group (Group A=-0.48±0.5, Group B=-0.48±0.6, Group C=-0.48±0.6, Group D=-0.48±0.5 dB/y, P>0.05), and a similar number of eyes reaching a progression endpoint (Group A=53, Group B=52, Group C=49, Group D=53, P>0.05). However, Group B showed fewer eyes presenting VF improvement (false-positives). The modified VF trend-analysis showed greater specificity than conventional PLR in a population with glaucoma.

Secular trends in salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults, 1997-2011.

PubMed

Yu, Lianlong; Li, Suyun; Zhao, Jinshan; Zhang, Junli; Wang, Liansen; Wang, Kebo

2018-03-01

Salt and soy sauce are the main ways of sodium intake in Chinese dietary. In this study, we used the data of the China Health and Nutrition Surveys to describe the secular trends of salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults from 1997 to 2011. Trends were tested by multiple linear regression models. During the past 14 years, the consumption of sodium, salt and soy sauce intake values decreased significantly across the six study periods (p < .0001) among both men and women. Averaged salt values decreased by 4.9 g/d in men and 4.1 g/d in women. Mean soy sauce intake values decreased by 9.0 g/d among men and 7.3 g/d among women. Similar significant trends were observed in all age groups, activity levels and regions (p < .0001).

A high resolution model of linear trend in mass variations from DMT-2: Added value of accounting for coloured noise in GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahani, Hassan H.; Ditmar, Pavel; Inácio, Pedro; Didova, Olga; Gunter, Brian; Klees, Roland; Guo, Xiang; Guo, Jing; Sun, Yu; Liu, Xianglin; Zhao, Qile; Riva, Riccardo

2017-01-01

We present a high resolution model of the linear trend in the Earth's mass variations based on DMT-2 (Delft Mass Transport model, release 2). DMT-2 was produced primarily from K-Band Ranging (KBR) data of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). It comprises a time series of monthly solutions complete to spherical harmonic degree 120. A novel feature in its production was the accurate computation and incorporation of stochastic properties of coloured noise when processing KBR data. The unconstrained DMT-2 monthly solutions are used to estimate the linear trend together with a bias, as well as annual and semi-annual sinusoidal terms. The linear term is further processed with an anisotropic Wiener filter, which uses full noise and signal covariance matrices. Given the fact that noise in an unconstrained model of the trend is reduced substantially as compared to monthly solutions, the Wiener filter associated with the trend is much less aggressive compared to a Wiener filter applied to monthly solutions. Consequently, the trend estimate shows an enhanced spatial resolution. It allows signals in relatively small water bodies, such as Aral sea and Ladoga lake, to be detected. Over the ice sheets, it allows for a clear identification of signals associated with some outlet glaciers or their groups. We compare the obtained trend estimate with the ones from the CSR-RL05 model using (i) the same approach based on monthly noise covariance matrices and (ii) a commonly-used approach based on the DDK-filtered monthly solutions. We use satellite altimetry data as independent control data. The comparison demonstrates a high spatial resolution of the DMT-2 linear trend. We link this to the usage of high-accuracy monthly noise covariance matrices, which is due to an accurate computation and incorporation of coloured noise when processing KBR data. A preliminary comparison of the linear trend based on DMT-2 with that computed from GSFC_global_mascons_v01 reveals, among other, a high concentration of the signal along the coast for both models in areas like the ice sheets, Gulf of Alaska, and Iceland.

Sleep Tendency and Ability to Sustain Wakefulness

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-03-01

Pratica di Mare, 00040 Pomezia (Roma) Italy 2 Dipartimento di Psicologia - Universitd di Roma "La Sapienza" Via del policlinico 155 00161 Roma Italy...and the score was taken as ANOVA showed a significant effect for Test latency to the first epoch of any stage of sleep. If (Fl, 7 =31.02; p=.001), with...linear trend during Test x Condition x Session (F3,2 1ə) interaction the night only for MSLT (FI, 7 = 23.83; p=.00 2, was not significant. In the table

Trends in abuse and misuse of prescription opioids among older adults.

PubMed

West, Nancy A; Severtson, Stevan G; Green, Jody L; Dart, Richard C

2015-04-01

Dramatic increases in the prescriptive use of opioid analgesics during the past two decades have been paralleled by alarming increases in rates of the abuse and intentional misuse of these drugs. We examined recent trends in the abuse and misuse and associated fatal outcomes among older adults (60+ years) and compared these to trends among younger adults (20-59 years). Trend analysis using linear regression models was used to analyze 184,136 cases and 1149 deaths associated with abuse and misuse of the prescription opioids oxycodone, fentanyl, hydrocodone, morphine, oxymorphone, hydromorphone, methadone, buprenorphine, tramadol, and tapentadol that were reported to participating U.S. Poison Centers of the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS(®)) System between 2006-Q1 and 2013-Q4. Rates of abuse and misuse of prescription opioids were lower for older adults than for younger adults; however, mortality rates among the older ages followed an increasing linear trend (P < 0.0001) and surpassed rates for younger adults in 2012 and 2013. In contrast, mortality rates among younger adults rose and fell during the period, with recent rates trending downward (P = 0.0003 for quadratic trend). Sub-analysis revealed an increasing linear trend among older adults specifically for suicidal intent (P < 0.0001), whereas these rates increased and then decreased among younger adults (P < 0.0001 for quadratic trend). Recent linear increases in rates of death and use of prescription opioids with suicidal intent among older adults have important implications as the U.S. undergoes a rapid expansion of its elderly population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Google Flu Trends data in forecasting influenza-like-illness related ED visits in Omaha, Nebraska.

PubMed

Araz, Ozgur M; Bentley, Dan; Muelleman, Robert L

2014-09-01

Emergency department (ED) visits increase during the influenza seasons. It is essential to identify statistically significant correlates in order to develop an accurate forecasting model for ED visits. Forecasting influenza-like-illness (ILI)-related ED visits can significantly help in developing robust resource management strategies at the EDs. We first performed correlation analyses to understand temporal correlations between several predictors of ILI-related ED visits. We used the data available for Douglas County, the biggest county in Nebraska, for Omaha, the biggest city in the state, and for a major hospital in Omaha. The data set included total and positive influenza test results from the hospital (ie, Antigen rapid (Ag) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) tests); an Internet-based influenza surveillance system data, that is, Google Flu Trends, for both Nebraska and Omaha; total ED visits in Douglas County attributable to ILI; and ILI surveillance network data for Douglas County and Nebraska as the predictors and data for the hospital's ILI-related ED visits as the dependent variable. We used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt Winters methods with3 linear regression models to forecast ILI-related ED visits at the hospital and evaluated model performances by comparing the root means square errors (RMSEs). Because of strong positive correlations with ILI-related ED visits between 2008 and 2012, we validated the use of Google Flu Trends data as a predictor in an ED influenza surveillance tool. Of the 5 forecasting models we have tested, linear regression models performed significantly better when Google Flu Trends data were included as a predictor. Regression models including Google Flu Trends data as a predictor variable have lower RMSE, and the lowest is achieved when all other variables are also included in the model in our forecasting experiments for the first 5 weeks of 2013 (with RMSE = 57.61). Google Flu Trends data statistically improve the performance of predicting ILI-related ED visits in Douglas County, and this result can be generalized to other communities. Timely and accurate estimates of ED volume during the influenza season, as well as during pandemic outbreaks, can help hospitals plan their ED resources accordingly and lower their costs by optimizing supplies and staffing and can improve service quality by decreasing ED wait times and overcrowding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of nitrate long term trends in Loire-Brittany river district (France) in connection with hydrogeological contexts, agricultural practices and water table level variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, B.; Baran, N.; Bourgine, B.; Ratheau, D.

2009-04-01

The European Union (EU) has adopted directives requiring that Member States take measures to reach a "good" chemical status of water resources by the year 2015 (Water Framework Directive: WFD). Alongside, the Nitrates Directives (91/676/EEC) aims at controlling nitrogen pollution and requires Member States to identify groundwaters that contain more than 50 mg NO3 L-1 or could exceed this limit if preventive measures are not taken. In order to achieve these environmental objectives in the Loire-Brittany river basin, or to justify the non achievement of these objectives, a large dataset of nitrate concentrations (117.056 raw data distributed on 7.341 time-series) and water table level time-series (1.371.655 data distributed on 511 piezometers) is analysed from 1945 to 2007. The 156.700 sq km Loire-Brittany river basin shows various hydrogeological contexts, ranging from sedimentary aquifers to basement ones, with a few volcanic-rock aquifers. The knowledge of the evolution of agricultural practices is important in such a study and, even if this information is not locally available, agricultural practices have globally changed since the 1991 Nitrates Directives. The detailed dataset available for the Loire-Brittany basin aquifers is used to evaluate tools and to propose efficient methodologies for identifying and quantifying past and current trends in nitrate concentrations. Therefore, the challenge of this study is to propose a global and integrated approach which allows nitrate trend identifications for the whole Loire-Brittany river basin. The temporal piezometric behaviour of each aquifer is defined using geostatistical analyse of water table level time-series. This method requires the calculation of an experimental temporal variogram that can be fitted with a theoretical model valid for a large time range. Identification of contrasted behaviours (short term, annual or pluriannual water table fluctuations) allows a systematic classification of the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers. The nitrate dataset shows too many irregularities to employ traditional time-series approaches such as linear regression trend tests. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test is a robust statistical trend detection test that does not require verification of the normality of the dataset (Aguilar et al, 2007). Moreover, this test seems appropriate since it is less sensitive to missing or outlier data than a simple linear regression test. As the MK test can only detect monotonic trends, and as already done by Stuart et al., (2007) and Broers and Van der Grift (2004), the trend analyses are decennially partitioned in order to identify possible trend reversals for the studied period for each observation point. The trend identification is then spatialized by the use of the Kendall Regional (KR) test on homogenous zones characterized by their geology, their agricultural practices and their piezometric behaviour. The KR test, previously used by Frans and Helsel (2005) in the Columbia Basin Ground Water context, is quite similar to the MK test and consists of the creation of virtual regional boreholes using networks of boreholes located in the homogenous zones. This test allows the identification of regional monotonic trends, even in the zones where nitrate time-series are too small to detect significant trend per observation point. The MK test results show significant upward trends in nitrate concentrations in the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers when the test is computed on the 1945-2007 period. However, the decennial MK test shows different behaviours at smaller time scale. Some zones are characterized by a constant and significant increase in nitrate concentrations since 1945 (North-East of Brittany, North of Beauce) whereas others show a trend reversal (South of Brittany, Callovo-Oxfordian marls between Le Mans and Alençon, under covered Jurassic limestone around Poitiers). Furthermore, some rare zones show an increase in nitrate concentrations that follow a significant downward trend period (Orléans). In the nineties, a transition period may have occurred with a higher proportion of upward than downward trends (82 % against 7 % respectively) for the 1980-1990 period and a lower proportion of upward than downward trends for the 2000-2007 period (37 % against 51 % respectively). Combined with the analyse of the current groundwater nitrate concentrations, the KR test reveals zones where trends in nitrate concentrations have been significantly raising with high nitrate current mean values (> 50 mg NO3 L-1). On the other hand, some zones show a significant regional downward trend since 1995 and low current nitrate concentrations (< 20 mg NO3 L-1). Causes of trend reversals cannot be determined by the MK and KR statistical trend analyses, but the cross analyse of nitrate and water table level time-series gives a hint of a positive correlation between these two variables. Evolution of nitrate concentrations in superficial aquifers may thus depend on a combined effect of changes in both agricultural practices and evolution of water table levels linked with climatic context. References Aguilar J.B., Orban P., Dassargues A., Brouyère S., (2007) - Identification of groundwater quality trends in a chalk aquifer threatened by intensive agriculture in Belgium. Hydrogeology journal 15: 1615-1627. Broers H.P., van der Grift B., (2004) - Regional monitoring of temporal changes in groundwater quality. Journal of hydrology 296: 192-220. Frans L.M., Helsel D.R. (2005) - Evaluating regional trends in ground water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin Ground Water management Area, Washington. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5078, 7p. Stuart M.E., Chilton P.J., Kiniiburgh D.G., Cooper D.M., (2007) - Screening for long-term trends in groundwater nitrate monitoring data. Quaterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 40: 361-376. Funding The study was funded by the Loire-Brittany River Basin Agency and from proper BRGM funds.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

An introduction to modeling longitudinal data with generalized additive models: applications to single-case designs.

PubMed

Sullivan, Kristynn J; Shadish, William R; Steiner, Peter M

2015-03-01

Single-case designs (SCDs) are short time series that assess intervention effects by measuring units repeatedly over time in both the presence and absence of treatment. This article introduces a statistical technique for analyzing SCD data that has not been much used in psychological and educational research: generalized additive models (GAMs). In parametric regression, the researcher must choose a functional form to impose on the data, for example, that trend over time is linear. GAMs reverse this process by letting the data inform the choice of functional form. In this article we review the problem that trend poses in SCDs, discuss how current SCD analytic methods approach trend, describe GAMs as a possible solution, suggest a GAM model testing procedure for examining the presence of trend in SCDs, present a small simulation to show the statistical properties of GAMs, and illustrate the procedure on 3 examples of different lengths. Results suggest that GAMs may be very useful both as a form of sensitivity analysis for checking the plausibility of assumptions about trend and as a primary data analysis strategy for testing treatment effects. We conclude with a discussion of some problems with GAMs and some future directions for research on the application of GAMs to SCDs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Women victims of intentional homicide in Italy: New insights comparing Italian trends to German and U.S. trends, 2008-2014.

PubMed

Terranova, Claudio; Zen, Margherita

2018-01-01

National statistics on female homicide could be a useful tool to evaluate the phenomenon and plan adequate strategies to prevent and reduce this crime. The aim of the study is to contribute to the analysis of intentional female homicides in Italy by comparing Italian trends to German and United States trends from 2008 to 2014. This is a population study based on data deriving primarily from national and European statistical institutes, from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting and from the National Center for Health Statistics. Data were analyzed in relation to trends and age by Chi-square test, Student's t-test and linear regression. Results show that female homicides, unlike male homicides, remained stable in the three countries. Regression analysis showed a higher risk for female homicide in all age groups in the U.S. Middle-aged women result at higher risk, and the majority of murdered women are killed by people they know. These results confirm previous findings and suggest the need to focus also in Italy on preventive strategies to reduce those precipitating factors linked to violence and present in the course of a relationship or within the family. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

PubMed Central

Bishai, David; Opuni, Marjorie

2009-01-01

Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR) time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model) and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model). We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR) on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log transform. PMID:19698144

Trends in nutrients and suspended solids at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia, July 1988 through June 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, C.F.; Belval, D.L.; Campbell, J.P.

1996-01-01

Water-quality samples were collected at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia during a 6- to 7-year period. The water-quality data were used to estimate loads of nutrients and suspended solids from these tributaries to the non-tidal part of Chesapeake Bay Basin and to identify trends in water quality. Knowledge of trends in water quality is required to assess the effectiveness of nutrient manage- ment strategies in the five basins. Multivariate log-linear regression and the seasonal Kendall test were used to estimate flow-adjusted trends in constituent concentration and load. Results of multivariate log-linear regression indicated a greater number of statistically significant trends than the seasonal Kendall test; how-ever, when both methods indicated a significant trend, both agreed on the direction of the trend. Interpre- tation of the trend estimates for this report was based on results of the parametric regression method. No significant trends in total nitrogen concentration were detected at the James River monitoring station from July 1988 through June 1995, though total Kjeldahl nitrogen concen- tration decreased slightly in base-flow samples. Total phosphorus concentration decreased about 29 percent at this station during the sampling period. Most of the decrease can be attributed to reductions in point-source phosphorus loads in 1988 and 1989, especially the phosphate detergent ban of 1988. No significant trends in total suspended solids were observed at the James River monitoring station, and no trends in runoff- derived constituents were interpreted for this river. Significant decreases were detected in concentrations of total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, and total suspended solids at the Rappahannock River monitoring station between July 1988 and June 1995. A similar downward trend in total phosphorus concentration was significant at the 90-percent confidence level, but not the 95-percent confidence level. These decreases can be attributed primarily to reductions in nonpoint nutrient and sediment loads, and may have been partially caused by implementation of best management practices on agricultural and silvicultural land. Flow-adjusted trends observed at the Appomattox, Pamunkey, and Mattaponi monitoring stations were more difficult to explain than those at the James and Rappahannock stations. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus increased 16 and 23 percent, respectively, at the Appomattox River monitoring station from July 1989 through June 1995. Total phosphorus concentration increased about 46 percent at the Pamunkey River monitoring station between July 1989 and June 1995. At the Mattaponi River monitoring station, decreases in dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen were offset by increases in total Kjeldahl nitrogen, resulting in no net change in total nitrogen concentration from October 1989 through June 1995.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN. These sources were clearly linked with anthropogenic activities, and the observed decreasing trends confirmed the effectiveness of pollution control measures implemented at European or regional/local levels. Conversely, at regional level, the contributions from sources mostly linked with natural processes, such as aged marine and aged organics, did not show statistically significant trends. The trends observed for the PM10 source contributions reflected the trends observed for the chemical tracers of these pollutant sources well.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ambient temperature and FIT performance in the Emilia-Romagna colorectal cancer screening programme.

PubMed

De Girolamo, Gianfranco; Goldoni, Carlo A; Corradini, Rossella; Giuliani, Orietta; Falcini, Fabio; Sassoli De'Bianchi, Priscilla; Naldoni, Carlo; Zauli Sajani, Stefano

2016-12-01

To assess the impact of ambient temperature on faecal immunochemical test (FIT) performance in the colorectal cancer screening programme of Emilia-Romagna (Italy). A population-based retrospective cohort study on data from 2005 to 2011. Positive rate, detection rate, and positive predictive value rate for cancers and adenomas, and incidence rate of interval cancers after negative tests were analysed using Poisson regression models. In addition to ambient temperature, gender, age, screening history, and Local Health Unit were also considered. In 1,521,819 tests analysed, the probability of a positive result decreased linearly with increasing temperature. Point estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals were estimated for six temperature classes (<5, 5 |-10, 10 |-15, 15 |-20, 20|-25 and ≥25℃), and referred to the 5|-10℃ class. The positive rate ratio was significantly related to temperature increase: 0.99 (0.97-1.02), 1, 0.98 (0.96-1.00), 0.96 (0.94-0.99), 0.93 (0.91-0.96), 0.92 (0.89-0.95). A linear trend was also evident for advanced adenoma detection rate ratio: 1.00 (0.96-1.04), 1, 0.98 (0.93-1.02), 0.96 (0.92-1.00), 0.92 (0.88-0.96), 0.94 (0.88-1.01). The effect was less linear, but still important, for cancer detection rates: 0.95 (0.85-1.06), 1, 1.00 (0.90-1.10), 0.94 (0.85-1.05), 0.81 (0.72-0.92), 0.93 (0.80-1.09). No association or linear trend was found for positive predictive values or risk of interval cancer, despite an excess of +16% in the highest temperature class for interval cancer. Ambient temperatures can affect screening performance. Continued monitoring is needed to verify the effect of introducing FIT tubes with a new buffer, which should guarantee a higher stability of haemoglobin. © The Author(s) 2016.

Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

2008-12-01

We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is produced in the processed waveform. This artificial linear trend degrades the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting, although the forecasting result is expected to be robust against the existence of short-period noise [Tsushima et al., 2008a]. Since the bottom pressure show gradual increase (or decrease) in the tsunami source region [Tsushima et al., 2008b], it is important to remove the linear trend not related to the tsunami generation from the data before fed into the analysis. Therefore, the reduction of the noise in sub-mHz band is critical for the forecasting small tsunamis. Applying a kind of frequency filters to eliminate this noise cannot be a solution for this problem because actual tsunami signals may also contain components of this frequency band. We investigate whether any statistical modelings of the noise are effective for reducing the sub-mHz noise.

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Prevalence and Correlates of Tobacco and Nicotine Containing Product Use in a Sample of United States Air Force Trainees

PubMed Central

Derefinko, Karen J.; Bursac, Zoran; Ebbert, Jon O.; Colvin, Lauren; Talcott, Gerald W.; Hryshko-Mullen, Ann S.; Richey, Phyllis A.; Klesges, Robert C.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Although there is increasing attention to the prevalence of new and emerging tobacco products in the civilian population, remarkably little is known about the current prevalence of these products in a military population. Methods: The current investigation was designed to determine the prevalence of tobacco and nicotine containing products (TNCP) and correlates of use across multiple cohorts of trainees undergoing Technical Training in the US Air Force between April 2013 and December 2014. Chi-square test, Cochran–Armitage test for linear trend, and logistic regression models were applied to test differences and linear trends across time for TNCP use as well as correlates of use in a cross-sectional sample of 13 685 Airmen (final analytic sample). Results: Over a quarter (26.9%) of Airmen reported regular use of a TNCP. The two most prevalent products were cigarettes (11.2%) and hookah (10.5%). Among correlates of use, Airmen that regularly use TNCPs were more likely to be male, younger, non-Hispanic white, and single with a high school degree or General Education Development. Hookah was the most endorsed for intentions to use, and along with e-cigarettes, had the lowest perception of harm. While prevalence of most products remained constant across entering cohorts, the prevalence of e-cigarettes showed significant linear increase. Conclusions: The prevalence of TNCP use is high across cohorts of Airmen. Remarkably high estimates of future intentions to use and low perceptions of harm for emerging products suggest that intervention efforts should be directed at multiple forms of TNCP use to address this important public health issue. PMID:25895952

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

Geomorphic domains and linear features on Landsat images, Circle Quadrangle, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, S.L.

1984-01-01

A remote sensing study using Landsat images was undertaken as part of the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP). Geomorphic domains A and B, identified on enhanced Landsat images, divide Circle quadrangle south of Tintina fault zone into two regional areas having major differences in surface characteristics. Domain A is a roughly rectangular, northeast-trending area of relatively low relief and simple, widely spaced drainages, except where igneous rocks are exposed. In contrast, domain B, which bounds two sides of domain A, is more intricately dissected showing abrupt changes in slope and relatively high relief. The northwestern part of geomorphic domain A includes a previously mapped tectonostratigraphic terrane. The southeastern boundary of domain A occurs entirely within the adjoining tectonostratigraphic terrane. The sharp geomorphic contrast along the southeastern boundary of domain A and the existence of known faults along this boundary suggest that the southeastern part of domain A may be a subdivision of the adjoining terrane. Detailed field studies would be necessary to determine the characteristics of the subdivision. Domain B appears to be divisible into large areas of different geomorphic terrains by east-northeast-trending curvilinear lines drawn on Landsat images. Segments of two of these lines correlate with parts of boundaries of mapped tectonostratigraphic terranes. On Landsat images prominent north-trending lineaments together with the curvilinear lines form a large-scale regional pattern that is transected by mapped north-northeast-trending high-angle faults. The lineaments indicate possible lithlogic variations and/or structural boundaries. A statistical strike-frequency analysis of the linear features data for Circle quadrangle shows that northeast-trending linear features predominate throughout, and that most northwest-trending linear features are found south of Tintina fault zone. A major trend interval of N.64-72E. in the linear feature data, corresponds to the strike of foliations in metamorphic rocks and magnetic anomalies reflecting compositional variations suggesting that most linear features in the southern part of the quadrangle probably are related to lithologic variations brought about by folding and foliation of metamorphic rocks. A second important trend interval, N.14-35E., may be related to thrusting south of the Tintina fault zone, as high concentrations of linear features within this interval are found in areas of mapped thrusts. Low concentrations of linear features are found in areas of most igneous intrusives. High concentrations of linear features do not correspond to areas of mineralization in any consistent or significant way that would allow concentration patterns to be easily used as an aid in locating areas of mineralization. The results of this remote sensing study indicate that there are several possibly important areas where further detailed studies are warranted.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of Body Mass Index on Postoperative Transfusions and 24-Hour Chest-Tube Output

PubMed Central

Nolan, Heather R.; Ramaiah, Chandrashekhar

2011-01-01

An increasing obese population in the United States focuses attention on the effect of obesity on surgical outcomes. Our objective was to see if obesity, determined by body mass index (BMI), contributed to bleeding in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery as measured by intraoperative and postoperative packed red blood cell transfusion frequency and amount and 24-hour chest-tube output. A retrospective chart review examined 150 subjects undergoing single-surgeon off-pump or on-pump CABG surgery between September 2006 and April 2009. BMI groups included normal-weight (BMI <25), overweight (BMI 25 to 29), and obese (BMI ≥30). Analyses used a chi-square test to determine variances in number of transfusions, and ANOVA for transfusion amount and 24-hour chest-tube amount. The percentage of subjects receiving intraoperative transfusions varied significantly by BMI group (p = 0.022). The percentage of subjects receiving transfusions in the 72-hour postoperative period showed a decreasing linear trend based on BMI group (p = 0.054). The percentage of subjects receiving transfusions in the combined intraoperative or 72-hour postoperative period showed a decreasing linear trend based on BMI group (p = 0.054). The transfusion amount during the 72-hour postoperative period varied significantly between BMI groups (p = 0.021), and the test for a linear decrease across groups was significant (p = 0.020). Twenty-four hour chest-tube output showed variation across all three BMI categories (p = 0.018) with chest-tube output decreasing with increasing obesity in a linear fashion (p = 0.006). Transfusion rate and amount indicate total blood loss is decreased in the obese, and chest-tube output findings give a direct measurable indicator of blood loss from the surgical site indicating increasing BMI is linearly correlated with decreasing postoperative bleeding. PMID:22654469

Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of Viral Hepatitis in China (2003-2015): Implications for Prevention and Control Policies.

PubMed

Zhu, Bin; Liu, Jinlin; Fu, Yang; Zhang, Bo; Mao, Ying

2018-04-02

Viral hepatitis, as one of the most serious notifiable infectious diseases in China, takes heavy tolls from the infected and causes a severe economic burden to society, yet few studies have systematically explored the spatio-temporal epidemiology of viral hepatitis in China. This study aims to explore, visualize and compare the epidemiologic trends and spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis (A, B, C, E and unspecified, based on the classification of CDC) at the provincial level in China. The growth rates of incidence are used and converted to box plots to visualize the epidemiologic trends, with the linear trend being tested by chi-square linear by linear association test. Two complementary spatial cluster methods are used to explore the overall agglomeration level and identify spatial clusters: spatial autocorrelation analysis (measured by global and local Moran's I) and space-time scan analysis. Based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, the hotspots of hepatitis A remain relatively stable and gradually shrunk, with Yunnan and Sichuan successively moving out the high-high (HH) cluster area. The HH clustering feature of hepatitis B in China gradually disappeared with time. However, the HH cluster area of hepatitis C has gradually moved towards the west, while for hepatitis E, the provincial units around the Yangtze River Delta region have been revealing HH cluster features since 2005. The space-time scan analysis also indicates the distinct spatial changing patterns of different types of viral hepatitis in China. It is easy to conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all plan for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis in all the provincial units. An effective response requires a package of coordinated actions, which should vary across localities regarding the spatial-temporal epidemic dynamics of each type of virus and the specific conditions of each provincial unit.

Mechanical Performance Test of Rubber-Powder Modified Concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yan Cong; Gao, Ling Ling

2018-06-01

A number of rubber cement concrete specimens that rubber powder dosage different were obtained using same cement, water and fine aggregates, by adjusting the dosage of rubber powder. Then it was used to research the influence of rubber powder dosage on performance of cement concrete by measuring its liquidity, strength and toughness. The results show that: when water-cement ratio was equal and rubber powder replacing the same volume sand, the fluidity of cement concrete almost linear increased with rubber powder dosage increasing. With dosage of rubber powder increasing, compressive strength and flexural strength reduced, but toughness linear growth trend when dosage of rubber powder less 30%.

Trends in Motor Performance of First Graders: A Comparison of Cohorts from 2006 to 2015.

PubMed

Spengler, Sarah; Rabel, Matthias; Kuritz, Arvid Marius; Mess, Filip

2017-01-01

Motor performance is an important factor for health. Already in childhood, motor performance is associated with, e.g., obesity and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. It is widely believed that the motor performance of children has declined over recent years. However, this belief is lacking clear evidence. The objective of this study was to examine trends in motor performance of first grade students during a period of 10 years (2006-2015). We examined trends in (a) aerobic fitness, (b) strength, (c) speed, and (d) balance for boys and girls separately and considered body mass index (BMI) as a potential confounder. From 2006 to 2015, we tested 5,001 first graders [50.8% boys; mean age 6.76 (0.56) years] of 18 primary schools in Germany. Each year between 441 and 552 students of the same schools were surveyed. Performance tests were taken from the Motorik-Module Study and the "German Motor Ability Test": "6-min run," "push-ups," "20-m sprint," and "static stand." Linear regression models were conducted for statistical analysis. A slightly negative trend in aerobic fitness performance was revealed in boys (β = -0.050; p  = 0.012) but not in girls. In the strength performance test no trend over time was detected. Performance in speed (boys: β = -0.094; girls: β = -0.143; p  ≤ 0.001) and balance tests (boys: β = -0.142; girls: β = -0.232; p  ≤ 0.001) increased over time for both boys and girls. These findings held true when BMI was considered. This study only partly supported the assumption that motor performance of children has declined: in our study, aerobic fitness declined (only in boys), while strength remained stable and speed and balance even increased in both sexes. Moreover, it seems as if BMI can explain changes in performance only to a small extent. Changed lifestyles might be a substantial cause. Further research on recent trends of motor performance and interacting variables is needed to support the results of our study and to provide more knowledge on causes of these trends.

Linearity of Mid-Continent Kimberlite-Carbonatite Magmatism, USA: Slab-Edge Focus as Alternative to Hot-Spot Track

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duke, G. I.; Carlson, R. W.

2009-12-01

The fates of subducted oceanic slabs at depth in the mantle are not well known, but linear trends of unusual magmatic products such as kimberlites and carbonatites might be used to track their past existence within the mantle. A N40°W linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites, and rocks of kimberlitic affinity, from the Black Hills (WY-SD) to Alberta, was suggested to have been caused by upwelling mantle material focused directly above the western edge of the subducted Kula plate stalled in the transition zone, with a slab window or “tear” to the southwest (Duke, 2009). In contrast, a linear zone of similar magmas to the south (a southerly extension of this N40°W linear trend, from Kansas to Louisiana) has been proposed to represent a hot spot trace produced by a mantle plume (“Bermuda Hot Spot”). Ongoing studies of ages and geochemistry of alkalic rocks along the N40°W trend from Louisiana to Alberta provide increasing evidence for a slab-edge model as the cause of the linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites in the mid-continent. In addition, seismic tomography indicates that the torn Farallon slab currently is stalled in the transition zone below the mid-continent, and an older slab is within the lower mantle farther to the east (Sigloch et al., 2008). These seismic data were interpreted as revealing the presence of the western edge of the Farallon plate trending roughly N40°W. The slab edge as projected to the surface is parallel to, but slightly west of, the trend of kimberlites and carbonatites at the mid-continent. Recently published ages show no clear age progression for the magmatism and thus do not support a hot-spot hypothesis for the linear trend. The isotopic compositions of the alkalic rocks show a genetic similarity among more recent magmas along the trend. There are at least four main pulses of magmatism along the trend at 110-85, 67-64, 55-52, and less than 50 Ma. Kimberlites and carbonatites in the northern section of the N40°W trend are the youngest of the northern group, with ages of ~48 to ≤ 46 Ma. The southern portion of the trend contains the oldest alkalic magmatism in Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana, with kimberlites in Kansas and carbonatites in Arkansas. The 67-64 Ma magmatic (or “reheating”) pulse was recorded along the entire trend from Louisiana to northern Montana. Multiple slabs and/or slab segmentation, and irregular convection may account for multiple magmatic pulses, although the 67-64 Ma magmatism across the entire continent is difficult to explain. Importantly, kimberlites and carbonatites represent the most recent, or part of the most recent, magmatism along the N40°W trend. This correlates with a change in proportion of source composition with time, as indicated by increasing positive epsilon Nd and Hf, lower 87Sr/86Sr, and higher 207Pb/204Pb, 206/204Pb, and 208Pb/204Pb. Thus, in each area where there exist precise age and isotopic data, magmatism began with a component that was dominantly lithospheric, followed by increasing proportions of asthenospheric component with time, culminating with kimberlitic or carbonatite magmatism.

The changes in the frequency of daily precipitation in Urmia Lake basin, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salehi Bavil, Sepideh; Zeinalzadeh, Kamran; Hessari, Behzad

2017-06-01

Urmia Lake, as one of the most valuable saline ecosystems in the world, has faced a sharp drop in the water level in recent years. The trend studies of climatic parameters can be effective in identifying the responsible factors and managing this crisis. This research investigated the frequency trend of daily precipitation in the ranges of less than 5 mm, 5-10 mm, 10-15 mm, 15-20 mm, and more than 20 mm in the Urmia Lake basin. The trend was assessed using Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho and linear regression tests on 60 stations during a period of 30 years (1981 to 2011). The results showed that in all the three tests, the frequency of daily precipitation of less than 5 mm had a significant increase at 1% level. The 5-10 mm range displayed no significant trend, while the 10-15 mm range showed a significantly decreasing trend. The frequency in the 15-20 mm and above 20 mm ranges showed an insignificant falling trend. The analysis also indicated jumps in 1996 and 1999 (almost coinciding with the sharp drop in the lake's water level). In other words, the frequency trends of daily precipitation with small amounts (as a result, high evapotranspiration loss) were increasing and with large amounts were decreasing. This can be a contributor to reduced run-off and, hence, decreased water entering the lake. The results emphasize the need for changes in the management and consumption of water resources in the basin, in order to adapt to the climatic change.

6,220 institutionalised people with intellectual disability referred for visual assessment between 1993 and 2003: overview and trends.

PubMed

van Isterdael, C E D; Stilma, J S; Bezemer, P D; Tijmes, N T

2006-10-01

To summarise the results of visual performance tests and other data of institutionalised people with intellectual disability referred to a visual advisory centre (VAC) between 1993 and 2003, and to determine trends in these data. A retrospective medical record review was undertaken of 6,220 consecutive people examined ophthalmologically according to a standard protocol by one VAC that specialised in visual assessment and treatment of people with intellectual disability, between 1993 and 2003. chi2 test for linear trend was used and linear regression coefficients were calculated. The proportion of people aged > or =50 years increased from 19.3% to 34.2% between 1995 and 2003 (p<0.001); the combined figure of severe or profound intellectual disability decreased from 80.0% to 52.6% (p<0.001); the proportion of mobile people increased from 52.1% to 98.0% (p<0.001); the combined proportion of people with visual impairment or blindness decreased from 70.9% to 22.9% (p<0.001), and that of people with visual disorders decreased from 89.6% to 75.3% (p<0.001). Causes of intellectual disability were identified in 58.4% people; 20.8% had Down's syndrome. Many ocular diagnoses were found, indicating the need for ophthalmological monitoring. Specialised centres are helpful, because assessment and treatment of people with intellectual disability is complicated and time consuming. Protocols for efficient referral will have to be developed. A major task lies ahead to improve the treatment rates of refractive errors, cataract and strabismus, and to find specific causes of intellectual disability.

How is the weather? Forecasting inpatient glycemic control

PubMed Central

Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B; Thompson, Bithika M

2017-01-01

Aim: Apply methods of damped trend analysis to forecast inpatient glycemic control. Method: Observed and calculated point-of-care blood glucose data trends were determined over 62 weeks. Mean absolute percent error was used to calculate differences between observed and forecasted values. Comparisons were drawn between model results and linear regression forecasting. Results: The forecasted mean glucose trends observed during the first 24 and 48 weeks of projections compared favorably to the results provided by linear regression forecasting. However, in some scenarios, the damped trend method changed inferences compared with linear regression. In all scenarios, mean absolute percent error values remained below the 10% accepted by demand industries. Conclusion: Results indicate that forecasting methods historically applied within demand industries can project future inpatient glycemic control. Additional study is needed to determine if forecasting is useful in the analyses of other glucometric parameters and, if so, how to apply the techniques to quality improvement. PMID:29134125

Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Zubko, Viktor

2009-01-01

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together

Effects of urbanization on climate of İstanbul and Ankara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karaca, Mehmet; Tayanç, Mete; Toros, Hüseyi˙n.

The purpose of this work is to study regional climate change and investigate the effects of urbanization on climates of two largest cities in Turkey: İstanbul and Ankara. Air temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) data of İstanbul and Ankara are analyzed to study regional climate change and to understand the possible effects of urbanization on the climate of these regions owing to industrialization and large flux of migration from rural parts of the country. For the trend analysis, linear regression and the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test is used. A significant upward trend is found in the urban temperatures of southern İstanbul, which is the most highly populated and industrialized part of the city compared to its rural parts. Northern stations do not show any warming trend; instead, they have a cooling trend. Urbanization and industrialization in the southern part of İstanbul has a negative effect on regional cooling. In spite of Ankara's urban geometry and air pollution problem, the urban station in Ankara does not show any warming trend. A significant urban heat island intensity ( urban-rural) is not observed in Ankara.

Bariatric surgery trends: an 18-year report from the International Bariatric Surgery Registry.

PubMed

Samuel, Isaac; Mason, Edward E; Renquist, Kathleen E; Huang, Yu-Hui; Zimmerman, M Bridget; Jamal, Mohammad

2006-11-01

The epidemic of morbid obesity has increased bariatric procedures performed. Trend analyses provide important information that may impact individual practices. Patient data from 137 surgeons were examined from 1987 to 2004 (41,860 patients) using Cochran-Armitage Trend test and Generalized Linear Model. Over an 18-year period, surgeon preference for combined restrictive-malabsorptive procedures increased from 33% to 94%, while simple gastric restriction decreased correspondingly (P < .0001). Surgeons per worksite doubled and cases per surgeon increased 71%. Laparoscopic procedures increased to 24%. The percentage of males, mean operative age, and initial body mass index (BMI) increased significantly (P < .0001). Postoperative hospital stay decreased from 5.0 to 3.9 days (P < .0001). The most common procedure in 2004 was Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) (59%). Bariatric surgery patients are now older and heavier, length of stay is shorter, and the laparoscopic approach is more frequent. From 1987 to 2004, the general trend shows a clear preference for combined restrictive-malabsorptive operations.

Temperature and geographic attribution of change in the Taraxacum mongolicum growing season from 1990 to 2009 in eastern China's temperate zone.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Tian, Youhua; Xu, Lin

2015-10-01

Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.1 days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.1 days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.1 days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 1 °C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.1 days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 1 °C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.3 days in regional mean growing season end date. A 1 °C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.7 days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 1 °C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 1 °C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.

Temperature and geographic attribution of change in the Taraxacum mongolicum growing season from 1990 to 2009 in eastern China's temperate zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Tian, Youhua; Xu, Lin

2015-10-01

Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.1 days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.1 days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.1 days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 1 °C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.1 days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 1 °C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.3 days in regional mean growing season end date. A 1 °C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.7 days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 1 °C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 1 °C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.

Changes in Initial Expenditures for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Evaluation in the Medicare Population: A Comparison to Overall Medicare Inflation

PubMed Central

Bellinger, Adam S.; Elliott, Sean P.; Yang, Liu; Wei, John T.; Saigal, Christopher S.; Smith, Alexandria; Wilt, Timothy J.; Strope, Seth A.

2012-01-01

Introduction Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) creates significant expenses for the Medicare program. We sought to determine trends in expenditures for BPH evaluative testing after urologist consultation, and place these trends in the context of overall Medicare expenditures. Methods Using a 5% national sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2000 to 2007, we developed a cohort of men with claims for new visits to urologists for diagnoses consistent with symptomatic BPH (n=40,253). We assessed trends in initial expenditures (within 12 months of diagnosis; inflation and geography adjusted) by categories of evaluative tests derived from the 2003 AUA Guideline on the Management of BPH. Using governmental reports on Medicare expenditures, trends in BPH expenditures were compared to overall and imaging-specific Medicare expenditures. Comparisons were assessed by Z-tests and regression analysis for linear trends as appropriate. Results Between 2000 and 2007 inflation adjusted total Medicare expenditure per patient for the initial evaluation of BPH patients seen by urologists increased from $255.44 to $343.98 (p<0.0001). Increases in BPH related imaging (55%), were significantly less than increases in overall Medicare expenditures on imaging (104%; p<0.001). The 35% increase in per patient expenditures for BPH was significantly lower than the increase in overall Medicare expenditure per enrollee (45%; p=0.0.0015). Conclusion From 2000 to 2007, inflation adjusted expenditures on BPH related evaluations increased. This growth was slower than overall growth in Medicare expenditures, and increases in imaging expenditures related to BPH were restrained compared to the Medicare program as a whole. PMID:22425128

Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar

2018-05-01

Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.

Trends in cooling degree-days for five locations in Croatia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cvitan, L.

2010-09-01

The cooling degree-days (CDD) and number of cooling days (CD) over the period 1901-2008 are analyzed at five stations that represent different climatic regions in Croatia. The stations under consideration are: Osijek in the southern lowland of Pannonian Plain, Zagreb - Grič at the furthest south-eastern edge of the Julian Alps, Gospić in highland - hinterland of the Dinaric Alps, Crikvenica on the north-eastern Adriatic coast and Hvar on the mid - Adriatic island with the same name. Calculation of CDDs and counting of CDs are performed for the 18° C, 21° C and 23° C temperature thresholds that represent daily mean air temperature. Daily mean temperature (M) is calculated by using daily temperatures measured at 7 a.m. (t7), 2 p.m. (t14) and 9 p.m. (t21), in the following way: M=(t7+t14+2t21)/4. Linear trends over the period 1901-2008 are determined for each month as well as for the whole year (annual trend). Statistical significances of the trends are tested using the non-parametric Mann - Kendal test. For the months with the greatest potential cooling demands - June, July and August, the increasing trend is detected for almost all analyzed values at five locations. Namely, only for the August CD (threshold 18° C) for Hvar area and for the June and August CDDs (threshold 23° C) for Gospić area are detected slightly decreasing trends. Most slightly decreasing trends are discovered for September for both parameters at Osijek, Zagreb and Gospić area. Annual trends in both parameters for all locations are increasing, except the annual Gospić CDD (threshold 23° C) trend that is slightly decreasing. According to the Mann - Kendal test neither of the annual trends in CDD and CD for three temperature thresholds are statistically significant at 0.05 significance level in Gospić and Osijek. On the contrary, all of the mentioned annual trends are significant in Zagreb and Crikvenica, and almost all in Hvar (except trends in CD for the 21° C and 23° C thresholds). Months with the significant trends in most of analyzed values are: May and June in Osijek, May, June and July in Zagreb, June in Gospić, June, July and August in Crikvenica and July in Hvar.

A long-term validation of the modernised DC-ARC-OES solid-sample method.

PubMed

Flórián, K; Hassler, J; Förster, O

2001-12-01

The validation procedure based on ISO 17025 standard has been used to study and illustrate both the longterm stability of the calibration process of the DC-ARC solid sample spectrometric method and the main validation criteria of the method. In the calculation of the validation characteristics depending on the linearity(calibration), also the fulfilment of predetermining criteria such as normality and homoscedasticity was checked. In order to decide whether there are any trends in the time-variation of the analytical signal or not, also the Neumann test of trend was applied and evaluated. Finally, a comparison with similar validation data of the ETV-ICP-OES method was carried out.

Structural and lithologic study of northern coast ranges and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The pattern of linear systems within the project area has been extended into the western foothill belt of the Sierra Nevada. The chief pattern of linear features in the western Sierran foothill belt trends about N. 10 - 15 deg W., but in the vicinity of the Feather River the trend of the features abruptly changes to about N. 50-60 deg W and appears to be contiguous across the Sacramento Valley with a similar system of linear features in the Coast Ranges. The linear features in the Modoc Plateau and Klamath Mt. areas appear unrelated to the systems detected in the Coast Ranges of Sierran foothill belt. Although the change in trend of the Sierran structural features has been previously suggested and the interrelationship of the Klamath Mt. region with the northern Sierra Nevadas has been postulated, the data obtained from the ERTS-1 imagery strengthens these notions and provides for the first time evidence of a direct connection of the structural trends within the alluviated part of the Sacramento Valley. In addition rocks of Pleistocene and Holocene age are offset by some of the linear features seen on ERTS-1 imagery and hence may record the latest episode of geologic deformation in north-central California.

Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.; Degenstein, D.; Froidevaux, L.; Thompson, A. M.

2014-01-01

Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity II. Statistical analysis of floods in Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

This paper, the second of a two-part paper, investigates the nonstationary behaviour of flood peaks in Quebec (Canada) by analyzing the annual maximum flow series (AMS) available for the common 1966-2001 period from a network of 32 watersheds. Temporal trends in the mean of flood peaks were examined by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The significance of the detected trends over the whole province is also assessed by a bootstrap test that preserves the cross-correlation structure of the network. Furthermore, The LM-NS method (introduced in the first part) is used to parametrically model the AMS, investigating its applicability to real data, to account for temporal trends in the moments of the time series. In this study two probability distributions (GEV & Gumbel) were selected to model four different types of time-varying moments of the historical time series considered, comprising eight competing models. The selected models are: two stationary models (GEV0 & Gumbel0), two nonstationary models in the mean as a linear function of time (GEV1 & Gumbel1), two nonstationary models in the mean as a parabolic function of time (GEV2 & Gumbel2), and two nonstationary models in the mean and the log standard deviation as linear functions of time (GEV11 & Gumbel11). The eight models were applied to flood data available for each watershed and their performance was compared to identify the best model for each location. The comparative methodology involves two phases: (1) a descriptive ability based on likelihood-based optimality criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the deviance statistic; and (2) a predictive ability based on the residual bootstrap. According to the Mann-Kendall test and the LM-NS method, a quarter of the analyzed stations show significant trends in the AMS. All of the significant trends are negative, indicating decreasing flood magnitudes in Quebec. It was found that the LM-NS method could provide accurate flood estimates in the context of nonstationarity. The results have indicated the importance of taking into consideration the nonstationary behaviour of the flood series in order to improve the quality of flood estimation. The results also provided a general impression on the possible impacts of climate change on flood estimation in the Quebec province.

The linear trend of headache prevalence and some headache features in school children.

PubMed

Ozge, Aynur; Buğdayci, Resul; Saşmaz, Tayyar; Kaleağasi, Hakan; Kurt, Oner; Karakelle, Ali; Siva, Aksel

2007-04-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the age and sex dependent linear trend of recurrent headache prevalence in schoolchildren in Mersin. A stratified sample composed of 5562 children; detailed characteristics were previously published. In this study the prevalence distribution of headache by age and sex showed a peak in the female population at the age of 11 (27.2%) with a plateau in the following years. The great stratified random sample results suggested that, in addition to socio-demographic features, detailed linear trend analysis showed headache features of children with headache have some specific characteristics dependent on age, gender and headache type. This study results can constitute a basis for the future epidemiological based studies.

Top-down deactivation of interference from irrelevant spatial or verbal stimulus features.

PubMed

Frings, Christian; Wühr, Peter

2014-11-01

The selective-attention model of Houghton and Tipper (1994) assumes top-down deactivation of (conflicting) distractor representations as a mechanism of visual attention. Deactivation should produce an inverted-U-shaped activation function for distractor representations. In a recent study, Frings, Wentura, and Wühr (2012) tested this prediction in a variant of the flanker task in which a cue sometimes required participants to respond to the distractors rather than to the target. When reaction times and error rates were plotted as a function of the target-cue stimulus onset asynchrony, a quadratic trend emerged, consistent with the notion of distractor deactivation. However, in the flanker task, an alternative explanation for the quadratic trend in terms of attentional zooming is possible. The present experiments tested the deactivation account against the attentional-zooming account with the Stroop and the Simon task, in which attentional zooming should have minimal effects on distractor processing, because the target and distractor are presented at the same spatial location. Both experiments replicated the quadratic trend in the performance functions for responses to incongruent distractors, and additionally showed linear trends in the performance functions for responses to congruent distractors. These results provide additional support for the notion of top-down deactivation of distractor representations as a mechanism of visual selective attention.

Fish consumption during pregnancy, prenatal mercury exposure, and anthropometric measures at birth in a prospective mother-infant cohort study in Spain.

PubMed

Ramón, Rosa; Ballester, Ferran; Aguinagalde, Xabier; Amurrio, Ascensión; Vioque, Jesús; Lacasaña, Marina; Rebagliato, Marisa; Murcia, Mario; Iñiguez, Carmen

2009-10-01

Birth size has been shown to be related to maternal fish intake, although the results are inconsistent. The objective was to assess the association of consumption of different types of fish and prenatal mercury exposure with birth weight, birth length, and classification as small for gestational age (SGA) in newborns. Cord blood total mercury was measured in 554 newborns in a population-based cohort born from 2004 to 2006. Fish consumption was classified in 4 frequency categories (<1 portion/mo, 1-3 portions/mo, 1 portion/wk, and > or =2 portions/wk). When multivariate models were adjusted, newborns in the higher quartile of total mercury weighed 143.7 g less (95% CI: -251.8, -35.6; P for trend = 0.02) and had higher odds of being SGA for length (odds ratio: 5.3; 95% CI: 1.2, 23.9; P from likelihood ratio test = 0.03) without a linear relation (P for trend = 0.13) compared with those in the lowest quartile. Mothers consuming >/=2 portions/wk of canned tuna had newborns who weighed more than those who consumed <1 portion/mo (P for trend = 0.03) and a lower risk of having infants who were SGA for weight (P for trend = 0.01). Consumption of > or =2 portions/wk of large oily fish was associated with a higher risk of being SGA for weight and consumption of lean fish with a lower risk of being SGA for length compared with the consumption of <1 portion/mo, but in neither case was there a linear relation (P for trend >0.05). The role of fish in fetal growth depends on the amount and type of fish consumed. The findings for mercury warrant further investigation in other settings.

[Visual field progression in glaucoma: cluster analysis].

PubMed

Bresson-Dumont, H; Hatton, J; Foucher, J; Fonteneau, M

2012-11-01

Visual field progression analysis is one of the key points in glaucoma monitoring, but distinction between true progression and random fluctuation is sometimes difficult. There are several different algorithms but no real consensus for detecting visual field progression. The trend analysis of global indices (MD, sLV) may miss localized deficits or be affected by media opacities. Conversely, point-by-point analysis makes progression difficult to differentiate from physiological variability, particularly when the sensitivity of a point is already low. The goal of our study was to analyse visual field progression with the EyeSuite™ Octopus Perimetry Clusters algorithm in patients with no significant changes in global indices or worsening of the analysis of pointwise linear regression. We analyzed the visual fields of 162 eyes (100 patients - 58 women, 42 men, average age 66.8 ± 10.91) with ocular hypertension or glaucoma. For inclusion, at least six reliable visual fields per eye were required, and the trend analysis (EyeSuite™ Perimetry) of visual field global indices (MD and SLV), could show no significant progression. The analysis of changes in cluster mode was then performed. In a second step, eyes with statistically significant worsening of at least one of their clusters were analyzed point-by-point with the Octopus Field Analysis (OFA). Fifty four eyes (33.33%) had a significant worsening in some clusters, while their global indices remained stable over time. In this group of patients, more advanced glaucoma was present than in stable group (MD 6.41 dB vs. 2.87); 64.82% (35/54) of those eyes in which the clusters progressed, however, had no statistically significant change in the trend analysis by pointwise linear regression. Most software algorithms for analyzing visual field progression are essentially trend analyses of global indices, or point-by-point linear regression. This study shows the potential role of analysis by clusters trend. However, for best results, it is preferable to compare the analyses of several tests in combination with morphologic exam. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.

2010-01-01

Trends in the timing of snowmelt and associated runoff in Colorado were evaluated for the 1978-2007 water years using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on daily snow-water equivalent (SWE) data from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites and daily streamflow data from headwater streams. The RKT is a robust, nonparametric test that provides an increased power of trend detection by grouping data from multiple sites within a given geographic region. The RKT analyses indicated strong, pervasive trends in snowmelt and streamflow timing, which have shifted toward earlier in the year by a median of 2-3 weeks over the 29-yr study period. In contrast, relatively few statistically significant trends were detected using simple linear regression. RKT analyses also indicated that November-May air temperatures increased by a median of 0.9 degrees C decade-1, while 1 April SWE and maximum SWE declined by a median of 4.1 and 3.6 cm decade-1, respectively. Multiple linear regression models were created, using monthly air temperatures, snowfall, latitude, and elevation as explanatory variables to identify major controlling factors on snowmelt timing. The models accounted for 45% of the variance in snowmelt onset, and 78% of the variance in the snowmelt center of mass (when half the snowpack had melted). Variations in springtime air temperature and SWE explained most of the interannual variability in snowmelt timing. Regression coefficients for air temperature were negative, indicating that warm temperatures promote early melt. Regression coefficients for SWE, latitude, and elevation were positive, indicating that abundant snowfall tends to delay snowmelt, and snowmelt tends to occur later at northern latitudes and high elevations. Results from this study indicate that even the mountains of Colorado, with their high elevations and cold snowpacks, are experiencing substantial shifts in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff toward earlier in the year.

Nonparametric evaluation of birth cohort trends in disease rates.

PubMed

Tarone, R E; Chu, K C

2000-01-01

Although interpretation of age-period-cohort analyses is complicated by the non-identifiability of maximum likelihood estimates, changes in the slope of the birth-cohort effect curve are identifiable and have potential aetiologic significance. A nonparametric test for a change in the slope of the birth-cohort trend has been developed. The test is a generalisation of the sign test and is based on permutational distributions. A method for identifying interactions between age and calendar-period effects is also presented. The nonparametric method is shown to be powerful in detecting changes in the slope of the birth-cohort trend, although its power can be reduced considerably by calendar-period patterns of risk. The method identifies a previously unidentified decrease in the birth-cohort risk of lung-cancer mortality from 1912 to 1919, which appears to reflect a reduction in the initiation of smoking by young men at the beginning of the Great Depression (1930s). The method also detects an interaction between age and calendar period in leukemia mortality rates, reflecting the better response of children to chemotherapy. The proposed nonparametric method provides a data analytic approach, which is a useful adjunct to log-linear Poisson analysis of age-period-cohort models, either in the initial model building stage, or in the final interpretation stage.

Changes in antibiotic usage and susceptibility in nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates following the introduction of ertapenem to hospital formulary.

PubMed

Graber, C J; Hutchings, C; Dong, F; Lee, W; Chung, J K; Tran, T

2012-01-01

There is concern that widespread usage of ertapenem may promote cross-resistance to other carbapenems. To analyse the impact that adding ertapenem to our hospital formulary had on usage of other broad-spectrum agents and on susceptibilities of nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates, we performed interrupted time-series analyses to determine the change in linear trend in antibiotic usage and change in mean proportion and linear trend of susceptibility pre- (March 2004-June 2005) and post- (July 2005-December 2008) ertapenem introduction. Usage of piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·0013) and ampicillin-sulbactam (P=0·035) declined post-ertapenem introduction. For Enterobacteriaceae, the mean proportion susceptible to ciprofloxacin (P=0·016) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·038) increased, while the linear trend in susceptibility significantly increased for cefepime (P=0·012) but declined for ceftriaxone (P=0·0032). For Pseudomonas, the mean proportion susceptible to cefepime (P=0·011) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·028) increased, as did the linear trend in susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (P=0·028). Notably, no significant changes in carbapenem susceptibility were observed.

Timeline trend profile and seasonal variations in nicotine present in ambient PM10 samples: A four year investigation from Delhi region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Shweta; Tandon, Ankit; Attri, Arun K.

2014-12-01

The detection of nicotine, an organic tracer for Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS), in the collected PM10 samples from Delhi region's ambient environment, in a appropriately designed investigation was initiated over four years (2006-2009) to: (1) Comprehend seasonal and inter-annual variations in the nicotine present in PM10; (2) Extract regression based linear trend profile manifested by nicotine in PM10; (3) Determine the non-linear trend timeline from the nicotine data, and compare it with the obtained linear trend; (4) Suggest the possible use of the designed experiment and analysis to have a qualitative appraisal of Tobacco Smoking activity in the sampling region. The PM10 samples were collected in a monthly time-series sequence at a known receptor site. Quantitative estimates of nicotine (ng m-3) were made by using a Thermal Desorption Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (TD-GC/MS). The annual average concentrations of nicotine (ng m-3) were 516 ± 302 (2008) > 494 ± 301 (2009) > 438 ± 250 (2007) > 325 ± 149 (2006). The estimated linear trend of 5.4 ng m-3 month-1 corresponded to 16.3% per annum increase in the PM10 associated nicotine. The industrial production of India's tobacco index normalized to Delhi region's consumption, pegged an increase at 10.5% per annum over this period.

Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatan, Abayomi A.; Osayomi, Tolulope; Akande, Samuel O.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-02-01

In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971-2012 at annual and seasonal scales using the high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth-century dataset (ERA-20C) at 15 grid points. Magnitudes of linear trends in mean and extreme temperatures and their statistical significance were calculated using ordinary least squares and Mann-Kendall rank statistic tests. The results show that Ibadan has witnessed an increase in annual and seasonal mean minimum temperatures. The annual mean maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant decline in most parts of Ibadan. While trends in cold extremes at annual scale show warming, trends in coldest night show greater warming than in coldest day. At the seasonal scale, we found that Ibadan experienced a mix of positive and negative trends in absolute extreme temperature indices. However, cold extremes show the largest trend magnitudes, with trends in coldest night showing the greatest warming. The results compare well with those obtained from a limited number of stations. This study should inform decision-makers and urban planners about the ongoing warming in Ibadan.

Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-10-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Uncertainty in Detecting Trend: A New Criterion and Its Applications to Global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Streamflow droughts in major watershed regions of the conterminous U.S.: Understanding evolution of historic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournasiri Poshtiri, M.; Pal, I.

2015-12-01

Climate non-stationarity affects regional hydrological extremes. This research looks into historic patterns of streamflow drought indicators and their evolution for major watershed regions in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The results indicate general linear and non-linear drying trends, particularly in the last four decades, as opposed to wetting trends reported in previous studies. Regional differences in the trends are notable, and echo the local climatic changes documented in the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA). A reversal of linear trends is seen for some northern regions after 1980s. Patterns in return periods and corresponding return values of the indicators are also examined, which suggests changing risk conditions that are important for water-resources decision-making. Persistent or flash drought conditions in a river can lead to chronic or short-term water scarcity—a main driver of societal and cross-boundary conflicts. Thus, this research identifies "hotspot" locations where suitable adaptive management measures are most needed.

Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

2016-01-01

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

Development of design, qualification, screening, and application requirements for plastic encapsulated solid-state devices for space applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1981-12-01

Test data were collected on 1035 plastic encapsulated devices and 75 hermetically scaled control group devices that were purchased from each of five different manufacturers in the categories of (1) low power Schottsky TTL (bipolar) digital circuits; (2) CMOS digital circuits; (3) operational amplifier linear circuits; and (4) NPN transistors. These parts were subjected to three different initial screening conditions, then to extended life testing, to determine any possible advantages or trends for any particular screen. Several tests were carried out in the areas of flammability testing, humidity testing, high pressure steam (auroclave) testing, and high temperature storage testing. Test results are presented. Procurement and application considerations for use of plastic encapsulated semiconductors are presented and a statistical analysis program written to study the log normal distributions resulting from life testing is concluded.

Development of design, qualification, screening, and application requirements for plastic encapsulated solid-state devices for space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Test data were collected on 1035 plastic encapsulated devices and 75 hermetically scaled control group devices that were purchased from each of five different manufacturers in the categories of (1) low power Schottsky TTL (bipolar) digital circuits; (2) CMOS digital circuits; (3) operational amplifier linear circuits; and (4) NPN transistors. These parts were subjected to three different initial screening conditions, then to extended life testing, to determine any possible advantages or trends for any particular screen. Several tests were carried out in the areas of flammability testing, humidity testing, high pressure steam (auroclave) testing, and high temperature storage testing. Test results are presented. Procurement and application considerations for use of plastic encapsulated semiconductors are presented and a statistical analysis program written to study the log normal distributions resulting from life testing is concluded.

Changes in initial expenditures for benign prostatic hyperplasia evaluation in the Medicare population: a comparison to overall Medicare inflation.

PubMed

Bellinger, Adam S; Elliott, Sean P; Yang, Liu; Wei, John T; Saigal, Christopher S; Smith, Alexandria; Wilt, Timothy J; Strope, Seth A

2012-05-01

Benign prostatic hyperplasia creates significant expenses for the Medicare program. We determined expenditure trends for benign prostatic hyperplasia evaluative testing after urologist consultation and placed these trends in the context of overall Medicare expenditures. Using a 5% national sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2000 to 2007 we developed a cohort of 40,253 with claims for new visits to urologists for diagnoses consistent with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia. We assessed trends in initial inflation and geography adjusted expenditures within 12 months of diagnosis by evaluative test categories derived from the 2003 American Urological Association guideline on the management of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Using governmental reports on Medicare expenditure trends for benign prostatic hyperplasia we compared expenditures to overall and imaging specific Medicare expenditures. Comparisons were assessed by the Z-test and regression analysis for linear trends, as appropriate. Between 2000 and 2007 inflation adjusted total Medicare expenditures per patient for the initial evaluation of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia seen by urologists increased from $255.44 to $343.98 (p <0.0001). Benign prostatic hyperplasia related imaging increases were significantly less than overall Medicare imaging expenditure increases (55% vs 104%, p <0.001). The increase in per patient expenditures for benign prostatic hyperplasia was significantly lower than the increase in overall Medicare expenditures per enrollee (35% vs 45%, p = 0.0015). From 2000 to 2007 inflation adjusted expenditures increased for benign prostatic hyperplasia related evaluations. This growth was slower than the overall growth in Medicare expenditures. The increase in BPH related imaging expenditures was restrained compared to that of the Medicare program as a whole. Copyright © 2012 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential Factors Affecting Survival Differ by Run-Timing and Location: Linear Mixed-Effects Models of Pacific Salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the Klamath River, California

PubMed Central

Quiñones, Rebecca M.; Holyoak, Marcel; Johnson, Michael L.; Moyle, Peter B.

2014-01-01

Understanding factors influencing survival of Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) is essential to species conservation, because drivers of mortality can vary over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although recent studies have evaluated the effects of climate, habitat quality, or resource management (e.g., hatchery operations) on salmonid recruitment and survival, a failure to look at multiple factors simultaneously leaves open questions about the relative importance of different factors. We analyzed the relationship between ten factors and survival (1980–2007) of four populations of salmonids with distinct life histories from two adjacent watersheds (Salmon and Scott rivers) in the Klamath River basin, California. The factors were ocean abundance, ocean harvest, hatchery releases, hatchery returns, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, snow depth, flow, and watershed disturbance. Permutation tests and linear mixed-effects models tested effects of factors on survival of each taxon. Potential factors affecting survival differed among taxa and between locations. Fall Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha survival trends appeared to be driven partially or entirely by hatchery practices. Trends in three taxa (Salmon River spring Chinook salmon, Scott River fall Chinook salmon; Salmon River summer steelhead trout O. mykiss) were also likely driven by factors subject to climatic forcing (ocean abundance, summer flow). Our findings underscore the importance of multiple factors in simultaneously driving population trends in widespread species such as anadromous salmonids. They also show that the suite of factors may differ among different taxa in the same location as well as among populations of the same taxa in different watersheds. In the Klamath basin, hatchery practices need to be reevaluated to protect wild salmonids. PMID:24866173

Dose-response effects of aerobic exercise on estrogen among women at high risk for breast cancer: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Schmitz, Kathryn H; Williams, Nancy I; Kontos, Despina; Domchek, Susan; Morales, Knashawn H; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Grant, Lorita L; DiGiovanni, Laura; Salvatore, Domenick; Fenderson, Desire'; Schnall, Mitchell; Galantino, Mary Lou; Stopfer, Jill; Kurzer, Mindy S; Wu, Shandong; Adelman, Jessica; Brown, Justin C; Good, Jerene

2015-11-01

Medical and surgical interventions for elevated breast cancer risk (e.g., BRCA1/2 mutation, family history) focus on reducing estrogen exposure. Women at elevated risk may be interested in less aggressive approaches to risk reduction. For example, exercise might reduce estrogen, yet has fewer serious side effects and less negative impact than surgery or hormonal medications. Randomized controlled trial. Increased risk defined by risk prediction models or BRCA mutation status. Eligibility: Age 18-50, eumenorrheic, non-smokers, and body mass index (BMI) between 21 and 50 kg/m(2). 139 were randomized. Treadmill exercise: 150 or 300 min/week, five menstrual cycles. Control group maintained exercise <75 min/week. Area under curve (AUC) for urinary estrogen. Secondary measures: urinary progesterone, quantitative digitized breast dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging background parenchymal enhancement. Mean age 34 years, mean BMI 26.8 kg/m(2). A linear dose-response relationship was observed such that every 100 min of exercise is associated with 3.6 % lower follicular phase estrogen AUC (linear trend test, p = 0.03). No changes in luteal phase estrogen or progesterone levels. There was also a dose-response effect noted: for every 100 min of exercise, there was a 9.7 % decrease in background parenchymal enhancement as measured by imaging (linear trend test, p = 0.009). Linear dose-response effect observed to reduce follicular phase estrogen exposure measured via urine and hormone sensitive breast tissue as measured by imaging. Future research should explore maintenance of effects and extent to which findings are repeatable in lower risk women. Given the high benefit to risk ratio, clinicians can inform young women at increased risk that exercise may blunt estrogen exposure while considering whether to try other preventive therapies.

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

Gender disparities in prosthodontics: authorship and leadership, 13 years of observation.

PubMed

Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Knoernschild, Kent L; Campbell, Stephen D; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in prosthodontics by reviewing the trend of female authorship in prosthodontic journals and exploring the role of female leadership in prosthodontic organizations and Advanced Education in Prosthodontic (AEP) programs. Three journals representing the prosthodontic specialty were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentist first and last (senior) authors for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Article inclusion criteria were restricted to the first or last authors who held at least a DMD/DDS/BDS degree and were from U.S. institutions. Data on female leadership in prosthodontic organizations and advanced education programs were collected, and the trends were studied. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. A linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the proportion of female authorship compared to male in the dental literature. A Fisher's Exact Test was performed to contrast differences of female first and last authorship in the selected journals between years 1995 and 2008. Overall, there was no statistically significant linear increase in the proportion of either first or last female authorship compared to male authorship over time. With respect to each journal, the linear regression analysis showed that the increase of first female authorship was statistically significant (p= 0.016) compared to male authorship only in the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. The percentage of female presidents of prosthodontic organizations has been very limited. A similar trend was also observed in AEP program director positions. Over the past 13 years, female dentists' participation in prosthodontics literature authorship has not increased significantly in the United States. Furthermore, female involvement in prosthodontics leadership has been limited over the past decades. © 2010 by The American College of Prosthodontists.

Associations between dietary intake of choline and betaine and lung cancer risk.

PubMed

Ying, Jun; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Hallman, D Michael; Hernandez, Ladia M; Spitz, Margret R; Forman, Michele R; Gorlova, Olga Y

2013-01-01

Evidence from human and animal research indicates that choline metabolic pathways may be activated during a variety of diseases, including cancer. We report results of a case-control study of 2821 lung cancer cases and 2923 controls that assessed associations of choline and betaine dietary intakes with lung cancer. Using multivariable logistic regression analyses, we report a significant association between higher betaine intake and lower lung cancer risk that varied by smoking status. Specifically, no significant association was observed between betaine intake and lung cancer among never-smokers. However, higher betaine intake was significantly associated with reduced lung cancer risk among smokers, and the protective effect was more evident among current than former smokers: for former and current smokers, the ORs (95% CI) of lung cancer for individuals with highest as compared to lowest quartiles of intake were 0.70(0.55-0.88) and 0.51(0.39-0.66) respectively. Significant linear trend of higher betaine intake and lower lung cancer risk was observed among both former (p(trend) = 0.002) and current (p(trend)<0.0001) smokers. A similar protective effect was also observed with choline intake both in overall analysis as well as among current smokers, with p-values for chi-square tests being 0.001 and 0.004 respectively, but the effect was less evident, as no linear trend was observed. Our results suggest that choline and betaine intake, especially higher betaine intake, may be protective against lung cancer through mitigating the adverse effect of smoking.

Functional Multi-Locus QTL Mapping of Temporal Trends in Scots Pine Wood Traits

PubMed Central

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R.; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; García-Gil, M. Rosario

2014-01-01

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. PMID:25305041

Functional multi-locus QTL mapping of temporal trends in Scots pine wood traits.

PubMed

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J; García-Gil, M Rosario

2014-10-09

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. Copyright © 2014 Li et al.

Temporal trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study.

PubMed

Jean, Sonia; Hudson, Marie; Gamache, Philippe; Bessette, Louis; Fortin, Paul R; Boire, Gilles; Bernatsky, Sasha

2017-12-01

Health administrative data are a potentially efficient resource to conduct population-based research and surveillance, including trends in incidence and mortality over time. Our objective was to explore time trends in incidence and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as well as estimating period prevalence. Our RA case definition was based on one or more hospitalizations with a RA diagnosis code, or three or more RA physician-billing codes, over 2 years, with at least one RA billing code by a rheumatologist, orthopedic surgeon, or internist. To identify incident cases, a "run-in" period of 5 years (1996-2000) was used to exclude prevalent cases. Crude age and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated (using data from 2001 to 2015), and sex-specific incidence rates were also standardized to the 2001 age structure of the Quebec population. We linked the RA cohort (both prevalent and incident patients) to the vital statistics registry, and standardized mortality rate ratios were generated. Negative binomial regression was used to test for linear change in standardized incidence rates and mortality ratios. The linear trends in standardized incidence rates did not show significant change over the study period. Mortality in RA was significantly higher than the general population and this remained true throughout the study period. Our prevalence estimate suggested 0.8% of the Quebec population may be affected by RA. RA incidence appeared relatively stable, and mortality was substantially higher in RA versus the general population and remained so over the study period. This suggests the need to optimize long-term RA outcomes.

[The Visual Association Test to study episodic memory in clinical geriatric psychology].

PubMed

Diesfeldt, Han; Prins, Marleen; Lauret, Gijs

2018-04-01

The Visual Association Test (VAT) is a brief learning task that consists of six line drawings of pairs of interacting objects (association cards). Subjects are asked to name or identify each object and later are presented with one object from the pair (the cue) and asked to name the other (the target). The VAT was administered in a consecutive sample of 174 psychogeriatric day care participants with mild to major neurocognitive disorder. Comparison of test performance with normative data from non-demented subjects revealed that 69% scored within the range of a major deficit (0-8 over two recall trials), 14% a minor, and 17% no deficit (9-10, and ≥10 respectively).VAT-scores correlated with another test of memory function, the Cognitive Screening Test (CST), based on the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (r = 0.53). Tests of executive functioning (Expanded Mental Control Test, Category Fluency, Clock Drawing) did not add significantly to the explanation of variance in VAT-scores.Fifty-five participants (31.6%) were faced with initial problems in naming or identifying one or more objects on the cue cards or association cards. If necessary, naming was aided by the investigator. Initial difficulties in identifying cue objects were associated with lower VAT-scores, but this did not hold for difficulties in identifying target objects.A hierarchical multiple regression analysis was used to examine whether linear or quadratic trends best fitted VAT performance across the range of CST scores. The regression model revealed a linear but not a quadratic trend. The best fitting linear model implied that VAT scores differentiated between CST scores in the lower, as well as in the upper range, indicating the absence of floor and ceiling effects, respectively. Moreover, the VAT compares favourably to word list-learning tasks being more attractive in its presentation of interacting visual objects and cued recall based on incidental learning of the association between cues and targets.For practical purposes and based on documented sensitivity and specificity, Bayesian probability tables give predictive power of age-specific VAT cutoff scores for the presence or absence of a major neurocognitive disorder across a range of a priori probabilities or base rates.

Separation of Trend and Chaotic Components of Time Series and Estimation of Their Characteristics by Linear Splines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kryanev, A. V.; Ivanov, V. V.; Romanova, A. O.; Sevastyanov, L. A.; Udumyan, D. K.

2018-03-01

This paper considers the problem of separating the trend and the chaotic component of chaotic time series in the absence of information on the characteristics of the chaotic component. Such a problem arises in nuclear physics, biomedicine, and many other applied fields. The scheme has two stages. At the first stage, smoothing linear splines with different values of smoothing parameter are used to separate the "trend component." At the second stage, the method of least squares is used to find the unknown variance σ2 of the noise component.

Spacecraft-borne long life cryogenic refrigeration: Status and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, A. L.

1983-01-01

The status of cryogenic refrigerator development intended for, or possibly applicable to, long life spacecraft-borne application is reviewed. Based on these efforts, the general development trends are identified. Using currently projected technology needs, the various trends are compared and evaluated. The linear drive, non-contacting bearing Stirling cycle refrigerator concept appears to be the best current approach that will meet the technology projection requirements for spacecraft-borne cryogenic refrigerators. However, a multiply redundant set of lightweight, moderate life, moderate reliability Stirling cycle cryogenic refrigerators using high-speed linear drive and sliding contact bearings may possibly suffice.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z < -1.96) and an upward trend in annual maximum daily precipitation. Annual and monthly mean flows for most of the months in the Neka basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value < 0.05). Correlation coefficients for Kendall, Spearman's rank and linear regression are 0.43, 0.61, and 0.67, respectively. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation and streamflow trends showed a downward trend for the mean annual precipitation observed in the upstream part of the study area which is consistent with the streamflow trend. Also, there is a good correlation between monthly and seasonal precipitation and streamflow for all sub-basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover) and analyzing the MEEMD-extracted trends of these climatic elements, we discussed possible driving factors of the time-varying trends of NDVI in several specific regions where trend reversals occurred.

Patient compliance with screening for fecal occult blood in family practice.

PubMed Central

Hoogewerf, P E; Hislop, T G; Morrison, B J; Burns, S D; Sizto, R

1987-01-01

Thirty-two family physicians in British Columbia collaborated in a study to evaluate their patients' compliance when offered testing for fecal occult blood (FOB) with Hemoccult II as a screening test for asymptomatic colorectal cancer. Of the 5003 eligible patients 71% complied. Thirteen variables were investigated. Compliance was found to be directly related to age in a linear manner (chi-squared value for trend = 180.4, p less than 0.0001), age alone correctly classifying 58.5% of the patients as complying or not complying. The association with other variables was less strong. Restricting the consumption of red meat during the test period had no effect on compliance. PMID:3607662

Non-linear trends and fluctuations in temperature during different growth stages of summer maize in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Wu, Jidong; Wang, Xu; He, Xin; Li, Ning

2017-12-01

North China Plain has undergone severe warming trends since the 1950s, but whether this trend is the same during different growth phases for crops remains unknown. Thus, we analyzed the non-linear changes in the minimum temperature (T min ), mean temperature (T mean ) and maximum temperature (T max ) using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method during each growth stage of summer maize based on daily temperature data from 1960 to 2014. Our results strongly suggest that the trends and fluctuations in temperature change are non-linear. These changes can be categorized into four types of trend change according to the combinations of decreasing and increasing trends, and 8 fluctuation modes dominated by the fluctuations of expansion and shrinkage. The amplitude of the fluctuation is primarily expansion in the sowing-jointing stage and shrinkage in the jointing-maturity stage. Moreover, the temperature changes are inconsistent within each growth stage and are not consistent with the overall warming trend observed over the last 55 years. A transition period occurred in both the 1980s and the 1990s for temperatures during the sowing-tasseling stage. Furthermore, the cooling trend of the T max was significant in the sowing-emergence stage, while this cooling trend was not obvious for both T mean and T min in the jointing-tasseling stage. These results showed that temperature change was significantly different in different stages of the maize growth season. The results can serve as a scientific basis for a better understanding of the actual changes in the regional surface air temperature and agronomic heat resources.

Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

PubMed Central

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

Variations in snow cover seasonality across the Kyrgyz Republic from 2000 to 2016 revealed through MODIS Terra and Aqua snow products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaszewska, M. A.; Henebry, G. M.

2017-12-01

The vertical transhumance practiced by herders in the highlands of Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable to environmental change. Herd movements and pasture conditions are both affected by spatial and temporal variations in snow cover and the timing of snowmelt. Early growing season soil moisture conditions affect the phenology and growth of vegetation, especially in the high elevation pastures used for summer forage. To evaluate snow seasonality, we examined three snow cover variables—the first day of snow (FDoS), the last day of snow (LDoS), and the duration of snow cover (DoSC) over 17 years based on 8-day snow product from MODIS Terra and Aqua (MOD/MYD10A2) across the Kyrgyz Republic (KYR). To track the "snow season" efficiently in the presence of snow-capped peaks, we start each snow season at day of year (DOY) 169, approximately the summer solstice, and extend to DOY 168 of the following year. To track the interannual variation of these variables, we applied two nonparametric statistics: the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Theil-Sen linear trend estimator. Our preliminary results focusing on four rayons in two oblasts indicate both large swaths of positive and negative significant trends over the different regions of the country. Positive trends in FDoS, meaning later snow arrival, were detected in parts of central KYR. Negative trends in FDoS meaning earlier arrival were detected at lower elevations in southwestern KYR. Earlier snowmelt (negative trend in LDoS) in eastern KYR resulted in a shorter snow season (negative trend in DoSC); in contrast, later snowmelt in southwestern KYR (positive trend in LDoS) resulted in a longer period of snow cover (positive trend of DoSC). We extend the analysis to the entire country and explore the influence of terrain attribites (elevation, slope, and aspect) and MODIS IGBP land cover type (MCD12Q1) on trends in snow cover seasonality. Additionally, we ran the trend tests for the Terra and Aqua snow products separately to evaluate the effect of overpass time on snow cover retrieval.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Dry spell trend analysis in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin using daily rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muita, R. R.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.

2012-04-01

Important agricultural areas in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia are largely semi-arid to arid. Persistent dry periods and timing of dry spells directly impact the availability of soil moisture and hence crop production in these regions. Most studies focus on the analysis of dry spell lengths at an annual scale. However, timing and length of dry spells at finer temporal scales is more beneficial for cropping when considering a trade-off between the time scale and the ability to analyse dry spell length. The aim of this study was to analyse the interannual and intra annual variations in dry spell lengths in the regions to inform crop management. This study analysed monthly dry spells based on daily rainfall for 1961-2010 on a limited dataset of 13 locations in Kenya and 17 locations in the MDB. This dataset was the most consistent across both regions and future analysis will incorporate more stations and longer time periods where available. Dry spell lengths were analysed by month and year and trends in monthly and annual dry spell lengths were analysed using Generalised Linear Models (GLM) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Overall, monthly dryspell lengths are right skewed with higher frequency of shorter dryspells (3-25 days). In Kenya, significant increases in mean dry spell lengths (p≤0.02) are observed in inland arid-to semi humid locations but this temporal trend appears to decrease in highland and the coastal regions. Analysis of the MDB stations suggests changes in seasonality. For example, spatial trends suggest a North-South increase in dry spell length in summer (December - February), but a shortening after February. Generally, the GLM and MK results are similar in the two regions but the MK test tends to give higher values of positive slope coefficients and lower values for negative coefficients compared to GLM. This may limit the ability of finding the best estimates for model coefficients. Previous studies in Australia and Kenya have relied on continuous climatic indices based on global climate models and stochastic processes resulting in limited and mixed results. For agronomical purposes, our results show that direct assessment of dry spells lengths from daily rainfall also indicates changes in dry spells trends in Kenya and the MDB and that such an analysis is easy to use and requires limited assumptions. This initial analysis identifies significant increasing trends in the dry spell lengths in some areas and periods in Kenya and the MDB. This has major implications for crop production in these regions and it is recommended that this information be incorporated in the regions' management decisions. KEY WORDS: monthly dry spell length; Generalized Linear Models; Mann -Kendall test; month; Kenya, Murray Darling Basin (MDB).

New Trends in Educational Lighting Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Peter

2001-01-01

Explores technological trends for improving campus lighting, including the use of direct-indirect suspended fluorescent lighting, suspended linear lighting, high-efficiency optical systems, and occupancy and daylight sensors. (GR)

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartolac, S; Letourneau, D; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario

Purpose: Application of process control theory in quality assurance programs promises to allow earlier identification of problems and potentially better quality in delivery than traditional paradigms based primarily on tolerances and action levels. The purpose of this project was to characterize underlying seasonal variations in linear accelerator output that can be used to improve performance or trigger preemptive maintenance. Methods: Review of runtime plots of daily (6 MV) output data acquired using in house ion chamber based devices over three years and for fifteen linear accelerators of varying make and model were evaluated. Shifts in output due to known interventionsmore » with the machines were subtracted from the data to model an uncorrected scenario for each linear accelerator. Observable linear trends were also removed from the data prior to evaluation of periodic variations. Results: Runtime plots of output revealed sinusoidal, seasonal variations that were consistent across all units, irrespective of manufacturer, model or age of machine. The average amplitude of the variation was on the order of 1%. Peak and minimum variations were found to correspond to early April and September, respectively. Approximately 48% of output adjustments made over the period examined were potentially avoidable if baseline levels had corresponded to the mean output, rather than to points near a peak or valley. Linear trends were observed for three of the fifteen units, with annual increases in output ranging from 2–3%. Conclusion: Characterization of cyclical seasonal trends allows for better separation of potentially innate accelerator behaviour from other behaviours (e.g. linear trends) that may be better described as true out of control states (i.e. non-stochastic deviations from otherwise expected behavior) and could indicate service requirements. Results also pointed to an optimal setpoint for accelerators such that output of machines is maintained within set tolerances and interventions are required less frequently.« less

Long-Term Coffee Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and a Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2013-01-01

Background Considerable controversy exists regarding the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. Methods and Results Pubmed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1,279,804 participants and 36,352 CVD cases. A non-linear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity = 0.09, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption (median: 0 cups/d), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.03) for the highest (median: 5 cups/d) category, 0.85 (0.80 to 0.90) for the second highest (median: 3.5 cups/d), and 0.89 (0.84 to 0.94) for the third highest category (median: 1.5 cups/d). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was non-linearly associated with both CHD (P for heterogeneity = 0.001, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001) and stroke risks (P for heterogeneity = 0.07, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity< 0.001) (P for trend differences > 0.05). Conclusions A non-linear association between coffee consumption with CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups/d, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk. PMID:24201300

A Data Matrix Method for Improving the Quantification of Element Percentages of SEM/EDX Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lane, John

2009-01-01

A simple 2D M N matrix involving sample preparation enables the microanalyst to peer below the noise floor of element percentages reported by the SEM/EDX (scanning electron microscopy/ energy dispersive x-ray) analysis, thus yielding more meaningful data. Using the example of a 2 3 sample set, there are M = 2 concentration levels of the original mix under test: 10 percent ilmenite (90 percent silica) and 20 percent ilmenite (80 percent silica). For each of these M samples, N = 3 separate SEM/EDX samples were drawn. In this test, ilmenite is the element of interest. By plotting the linear trend of the M sample s known concentration versus the average of the N samples, a much higher resolution of elemental analysis can be performed. The resulting trend also shows how the noise is affecting the data, and at what point (of smaller concentrations) is it impractical to try to extract any further useful data.

The middeck 0-gravity dynamics experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawley, Edward F.; Vanschoor, Marthinus C.; Bokhour, Edward B.

1993-01-01

The Middeck 0-Gravity Dynamics Experiment (MODE), flown onboard the Shuttle STS-48 Mission, consists of three major elements: the Experiment Support Module, a dynamics test bed providing computer experiment control, analog signal conditioning, power conditioning, an operator interface consisting of a keypad and display, experiment electrical and thermal control, and archival data storage: the Fluid Test Article assembly, used to investigate the dynamics of fluid-structure interaction in 0-gravity; and the Structural Test Article for investigating the open-loop dynamics of structures in 0-gravity. Deployable, erectable, and rotary modules were assembled to form three one- and two-dimensional structures, in which variations in bracing wire and rotary joint preload could be introduced. Change in linear modal parameters as well as the change in nonlinear nature of the response is examined. Trends in modal parameters are presented as a function of force amplitude, joint preload, and ambient gravity. An experimental study of the lateral slosh behavior of contained fluids is also presented. A comparison of the measured earth and space results identifies and highlights the effects of gravity on the linear and nonlinear slosh behavior of these fluids.

A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany☆

PubMed Central

Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M.; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time. PMID:24493876

A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany.

PubMed

Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

2014-02-01

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time.

A Re-appraisal of Olivine Sorting and Accumulation in Hawaiian Magmas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, J. M.

2002-12-01

Bowen never used the m-words (magma mixing) in his highly influential book "The Origin of the Igneous Rocks". Yet, in the past 20-30 years, magma mixing has been proposed as an important, almost ubiquitous, process at volcanoes in all tectonic environments ranging from oceanic basalts to large silicic magma bodies, and as the possible trigger of eruptions. Bowen regarded Hawaiian olivine basalts and picrites as the result of olivine accumulation in a lower MgO magma that was crystallizing and fractionating olivine. This, with variants, has been the party line ever since, the only debate being over the MgO content of the proposed parental magmas. Although magma mixing has been recognized as an important process in differentiated, low-MgO (below 7 percent), Hawaiian magmas, the wide range in MgO (7-30 percent) in Hawaiian olivine tholeiites and picrites is invariably attributed to olivine crystallization, fractionation and accumulation. In this paper I will re-evaluate this hypothesis using well-documented examples from Kilauea, Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa that exhibit well-defined, coherent linear trends of major oxides and trace elements with MgO . If olivine control is the only factor responsible for these trends, then the intersection of the regression lines for each trend should intersect olivine compositions at a common forsterite composition, corresponding to the average accumulated olivine in each of the magmas. In some cases (the ongoing Puu Oo eruption) this simple test holds and olivine fractionation and accumulation can clearly be shown to be the dominant process. In other examples from Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa (1852, 1868, 1950 eruptions, and Mauna Loa in general) the test does not hold, and a more complicated process is required. Additionally, for those magmas that fail the test, CaO/Al2O3 invariably decreases with decreasing MgO content. This should not happen if only olivine fractionation and accumulation are involved. The explanation for these linear trends that approach, but fail to intersect, appropriate olivine compositions is a combination of magma mixing accompanied by olivine crystallization and accumulation. One of the mixing components is a is a high-MgO (about13-15 percent) magma laden with olivine phenocrysts and xenocrysts and the other is a consanguineous low-MgO (about 7 percent) quasi "steady-state" magma, with a prior history of clinopyroxene and plagioclase fractionation.

Changes in time-trends of nutrient intake from fortified and non-fortified food in German children and adolescents--15 year results of the DONALD study. Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study.

PubMed

Sichert-Hellert, W; Kersting, M; Manz, F

2001-04-01

Although fortified products have played an increasing role in food marketing since the 1980s in Germany, data as to the consumption of fortified food is sparse. To assess long-term data on changes in fortified food supply or consumption patterns, nutrient intake, and time trends in the DONALD Study (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study). Between 1985 and 2000 consumption of nutrient intake (total and from fortified foods) was evaluated and time trends in energy and nutrient intake were assessed on the basis of 3-day weighed dietary records (n = 4193) of 2-14 year-old males (n = 383) and females (n = 404) enrolled in the DONALD Study. Nutrient intake was expressed as percentage of the current German recommendations. Food products were defined as fortified if enriched with at least one of the following nutrients: Vitamin A or provitamin A carotenoids (summarised as Vitamin A), Vitamins E, B1, B2, B6, C, niacin, folate, calcium or iron. Nutrient supplements and medicine were excluded from this evaluation. Time trends were analysed using linear and non-linear regression models (PROC MIXED, SAS 6.12). In percent of German references [3], non-fortified food contributed to folate intake by 20-30%, to Vitamin E by about 40%, to Vitamin B1 by 50-65%, to Vitamin A, C, B2, calcium, iron by about 65-95%, and to Vitamin B6 and niacin intake by 100% and more. Fortified food alone provided no more than 5% of calcium intake, about 10-20% of iron, Vitamin A and folate intake, up to 40-50% of Vitamin C, B1, B2, E, niacin and up to 80% of Vitamin B6 intake. During the 15 year period of the DONALD Study with total food, we only found a significant linear time trend for Vitamin C, whereas significant non-linear time trends were found for calcium, Vitamin E, B1, B2, B6, niacin and folate. In the latter there was a uniform increase until 1994 and a decrease thereafter. For iron and Vitamin A no significant time trend could be identified. Only iron and Vitamin A intake from fortified food showed a significant linear time trend. All other nutrients studied here gave significant non-linear time trends. Nutrient intake with fortified food reached maximum values between 1994 and 1996 followed by a decrease thereafter. Signs of changing food consumption patterns were found, pointing to an almost uniform decrease of nutrient intake since 1994/96 in our population of German children and adolescents. This could be an alarming indicator of a slight but unpreferable tendency to eat energydense, nutrient-poor foods.

Recent Acceleration of the Terrestrial Hydrologic Cycle in the U.S. Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Wu, Chuanhao

2018-03-01

Most hydroclimatic trend studies considered only a subset of water budget variables; hence, the trend consistency and a holistic assessment of hydrologic changes across the entire water cycle cannot be evaluated. Here we use a unique 31 year (1983-2013) observed data set in Illinois (a representative region of the U.S. Midwest), including temperature (T), precipitation (P), evaporation (E), streamflow (R), soil moisture, and groundwater level (GWL), to estimate the trends and their sensitivity to different data periods and lengths. Both the Mann-Kendall trend test and the least squares linear method identify trends in close agreement. Despite no clear trends during 1983-2013, increasing trends are found in P (8.73-9.05 mm/year), E (6.87-7.47 mm/year), and R (1.57-3.54 mm/year) during 1992-2013, concurrently with a pronounced warming trend of 0.029-0.037 °C/year. However, terrestrial water storageis decreased by -2.0 mm/year (mainly due to declining GWL), suggesting that the increased R is caused by increased surface runoff rather than baseflow. Monthly analyses identify warming trends for all months except winter. In summer, P (E) exhibits an increasing (decreasing) trend, leading to increasing R, soil moisture, GWL, and terrestrial water storage. Most trends estimated for different subperiods are found to be sensitive to data lengths and periods. Overall, this study provides an internally consistent observed evidence on the intensification of the hydrologic cycle in response to recent climate warming in U.S. Midwest, in agreement with and well supported by several recent studies consistently reporting the increased P, R and E over the Midwest and Mississippi River basin.

Model Checking Techniques for Assessing Functional Form Specifications in Censored Linear Regression Models.

PubMed

León, Larry F; Cai, Tianxi

2012-04-01

In this paper we develop model checking techniques for assessing functional form specifications of covariates in censored linear regression models. These procedures are based on a censored data analog to taking cumulative sums of "robust" residuals over the space of the covariate under investigation. These cumulative sums are formed by integrating certain Kaplan-Meier estimators and may be viewed as "robust" censored data analogs to the processes considered by Lin, Wei & Ying (2002). The null distributions of these stochastic processes can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be graphically compared with a few realizations from the Gaussian process. We also develop formal test statistics for numerical comparison. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether an apparent trend seen in a residual plot reects model misspecification or natural variation. We illustrate the methods with a well known dataset. In addition, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed test statistics in simulation experiments. In our simulation experiments, the proposed test statistics have good power of detecting misspecification while at the same time controlling the size of the test.

Numerical calculations of spectral turnover and synchrotron self-absorption in CSS and GPS radio sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyakumar, S.

2016-06-01

The dependence of the turnover frequency on the linear size is presented for a sample of Giga-hertz Peaked Spectrum and Compact Steep Spectrum radio sources derived from complete samples. The dependence of the luminosity of the emission at the peak frequency with the linear size and the peak frequency is also presented for the galaxies in the sample. The luminosity of the smaller sources evolve strongly with the linear size. Optical depth effects have been included to the 3D model for the radio source of Kaiser to study the spectral turnover. Using this model, the observed trend can be explained by synchrotron self-absorption. The observed trend in the peak-frequency-linear-size plane is not affected by the luminosity evolution of the sources.

Heterogeneous and decreasing HIV prevalence among women seeking antenatal care in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

PubMed Central

Behets, Frieda; Edmonds, Andrew; Kitenge, François; Crabbé, François; Laga, Marie

2010-01-01

Background We examined HIV prevalence trends over 4.5 years among women receiving antenatal care in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, by geographic location, clinic management and urbanicity. Methods Quarterly proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of pregnant women with HIV positive results were determined using aggregate service provision and uptake data from 22 maternity units that provided vertical HIV prevention services from October 2004 to March 2009. Assuming linearity, proportions were assessed for trend via the Cochran–Armitage test. Multivariable binomial regression was used to describe detailed prevalence trends. Results HIV testing was offered to 220 006 pregnant women; 210 348 (95.6%) agreed to be tested and 191 216 (90.9%) received their results. A total of 3999 women were found to be HIV positive, a prevalence of 1.90% (95% CI: 1.84–1.96%). The median quarterly proportion of women testing positive for HIV was 1.94% (range: 1.44–2.44%). Prevalence was heterogeneous in terms of maternity management, urbanicity and geographic location. Modeling suggested that the overall prevalence dropped from 2.04% (95% CI: 1.92–2.16%) to 1.77% (95% CI: 1.66–1.88%) over 4.5 years, a relative decrease of 13.2% (95% CI: 3.53–22.9%). Trend testing corroborated this decline (P < 0.01). Conclusions The decreasing HIV prevalence among Kinshasa antenatal care seekers is robust and encouraging. The relatively low prevalence and the weak existing healthcare system require prevention of mother-to-child transmission interventions that strengthen maternal and child healthcare service delivery. Complacency would be unwarranted: assuming a uniform national crude birth rate of 50/1000 and 1.8% antenatal HIV prevalence, approximately 7000 pregnant HIV infected women in Kinshasa, and 60 000 nationwide, are in need of care and prevention services yearly. PMID:20453017

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976–88

PubMed Central

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-01-01

Background Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Methods A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. Results An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16–18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3–6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2–10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6–15.1)] mortality. Conclusions The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality. PMID:19188208

Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976-88.

PubMed

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-02-01

Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16-18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3-6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2-10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6-15.1)] mortality. The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality.

Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series.

PubMed

Kerzenmacher, Tobias E; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain; Chanin, Marie-Lise

2006-07-01

Multi-regression analyses have often been used recently to detect trends, in particular in ozone or temperature data sets in the stratosphere. The confidence in detecting trends depends on a number of factors which generate uncertainties. Part of these uncertainties comes from the random variability and these are what is usually considered. They can be statistically estimated from residual deviations between the data and the fitting model. However, interferences between different sources of variability affecting the data set, such as the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO), volcanic aerosols, solar flux variability and the trend can also be a critical source of errors. This type of error has hitherto not been well quantified. In this work an artificial data series has been generated to carry out such estimates. The sources of errors considered here are: the length of the data series, the dependence on the choice of parameters used in the fitting model and the time evolution of the trend in the data series. Curves provided here, will permit future studies to test the magnitude of the methodological bias expected for a given case, as shown in several real examples. It is found that, if the data series is shorter than a decade, the uncertainties are very large, whatever factors are chosen to identify the source of the variability. However the errors can be limited when dealing with natural variability, if a sufficient number of periods (for periodic forcings) are covered by the analysed dataset. However when analysing the trend, the response to volcanic eruption induces a bias, whatever the length of the data series. The signal to noise ratio is a key factor: doubling the noise increases the period for which data is required in order to obtain an error smaller than 10%, from 1 to 3-4 decades. Moreover, if non-linear trends are superimposed on the data, and if the length of the series is longer than five years, a non-linear function has to be used to estimate trends. When applied to real data series, and when a breakpoint in the series occurs, the study reveals that data extending over 5 years are needed to detect a significant change in the slope of the ozone trends at mid-latitudes.

Statistical significance of seasonal warming/cooling trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2017-04-01

The question whether a seasonal climate trend (e.g., the increase of summer temperatures in Antarctica in the last decades) is of anthropogenic or natural origin is of great importance for mitigation and adaption measures alike. The conventional significance analysis assumes that (i) the seasonal climate trends can be quantified by linear regression, (ii) the different seasonal records can be treated as independent records, and (iii) the persistence in each of these seasonal records can be characterized by short-term memory described by an autoregressive process of first order. Here we show that assumption ii is not valid, due to strong intraannual correlations by which different seasons are correlated. We also show that, even in the absence of correlations, for Gaussian white noise, the conventional analysis leads to a strong overestimation of the significance of the seasonal trends, because multiple testing has not been taken into account. In addition, when the data exhibit long-term memory (which is the case in most climate records), assumption iii leads to a further overestimation of the trend significance. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with the Holm-Bonferroni method, we demonstrate how to obtain reliable estimates of the significance of the seasonal climate trends in long-term correlated records. For an illustration, we apply our method to representative temperature records from West Antarctica, which is one of the fastest-warming places on Earth and belongs to the crucial tipping elements in the Earth system.

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

PubMed

Crewe, Tara L; Taylor, Philip D; Lepage, Denis

2015-01-01

The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration) to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling) to reduce the probability that individuals will be detected on more than one occasion.

Fifteen-year trends in the prevalence of barriers to healthy eating in a high-income country.

PubMed

de Mestral, Carlos; Khalatbari-Soltani, Saman; Stringhini, Silvia; Marques-Vidal, Pedro

2017-03-01

Background: Despite increasing levels of education and income in the Swiss population over time and greater food diversity due to globalization, adherence to dietary guidelines has remained persistently low. This may be because of barriers to healthy eating hampering adherence, but whether these barriers have evolved in prevalence over time has never been assessed, to our knowledge. Objective: We assessed 15-y trends in the prevalence of self-reported barriers to healthy eating in Switzerland overall and according to sex, age, education, and income. Design: We used data from 4 national Swiss Health Surveys conducted between 1997 and 2012 (52,238 participants aged ≥18 y, 55% women), applying multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models to assess trends in prevalence of 6 barriers to healthy eating (taste, price, daily habits, time, lack of willpower, and limited options). Results: The prevalence of 3 barriers exhibited an increasing trend until 2007, followed by a decrease in 2012 (from 44% in 1997 to 50% in 2007 and then to 44% in 2012 for taste, from 40% to 52% and then to 39% for price, and from 29% to 34% and then to 32% for time; quadratic P -trend < 0.0001). Limited options decreased slightly until 2007 (35-33%) and then sharply by 2012 (18%) (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Daily habits remained relatively stable across time from 42% in 1997 to 38% in 2012 (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Conversely, lack of willpower decreased steadily over time from 26% in 1997 to 21% in 2012 (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Trends were similar for all barriers irrespective of sex, age, education, and income. Conclusion: Between 1997 and 2012, barriers to healthy eating remained highly prevalent (≥20%) in the Swiss population and evolved similarly irrespective of age, sex, education, and income. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Trend of annual temperature and frequency of extreme events in the MATOPIBA region of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvador, Mozar de A.; de Brito, J. I. B.

2017-06-01

During the 1980s, a new agricultural frontier arouse in Brazil, which occupied part of the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia. Currently, this new frontier is known as the MATOPIBA region. The region went through intense transformations in its social and environmental characteristics, with the emergence of extensive areas of intensive agriculture and large herds. The purpose of this research was to study the climatic variabilities of temperature in the MATOPIBA region through extreme climate indexes of ClimAp tool. Data from 11 weather stations were analyzed for yearly air temperature (maximum and minimum) in the period of 1970 to 2012. To verify the trend in the series, we used methods of linear regression analysis and Kendall-tau test. The annual analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures and of the temperature extremes indexes showed a strong positive trend in practically every series (with p value less than 0.05). These results indicated that the region went through to a significant heating process in the last 3 decades. The indices of extreme also showed a significant positive trend in most of the analyzed stations, indicating a higher frequency of warm days during the year.

The Relation of Education and Income to Cognitive Function among Professional Women

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunmin; Buring, Julie E.; Cook, Nancy R.; Grodstein, Francine

2005-01-01

We investigated the relation of educational attainment and annual household income to cognitive function and cognitive decline in community-dwelling women aged 66 years or older. Subjects were 6,314 health professionals participating in the Women’s Health Study, among whom information on education and income was self-reported. From 1998 to 2000, we administered five cognitive tests, measuring general cognition, episodic memory and verbal fluency, using a validated telephone interview. Second cognitive assessments were conducted approximately two years later; information was complete for 5,573 women at the time of analysis, with 94% follow-up. We used linear and logistic regression to calculate multivariate-adjusted mean differences, and odds of cognitive impairment (defined as worst 10% of test distribution) and of substantial decline in performance (worst 10% of distribution), across various levels of education and income. After adjusting for numerous potential confounding factors, we found strong trends of increasing mean cognitive performance with increasing level of education (p-trend<0.0005 on all cognitive measures). Odds of cognitive impairment also consistently decreased with increasing education (eg, on summary score combining all tests, OR=0.6, 95% CI 0.3–0.9 comparing those with a doctoral degree to those with a 3-year associate’s degree). For income, we found significant trends of increasing mean cognitive performance with increasing income on the summary score and on episodic memory (p-trends<0.0001). For example, the OR was 0.6 (95% CI 0.4–0.8) comparing those with the highest income to the lowest income on the summary score. Results were generally similar for cognitive decline over two years, although somewhat weaker. Thus, in these well-educated, professional women, educational attainment and income both predicted cognitive function and decline. PMID:16352912

Trends in Daily Cannabis Use Among Cigarette Smokers: United States, 2002-2014.

PubMed

Goodwin, Renee D; Pacek, Lauren R; Copeland, Jan; Moeller, Scott J; Dierker, Lisa; Weinberger, Andrea; Gbedemah, Misato; Zvolensky, Michael J; Wall, Melanie M; Hasin, Deborah S

2018-01-01

To estimate changes in the prevalence of daily cannabis use among current, former, and never cigarette smokers from 2002 to 2014 in the United States. The National Survey on Drug Use and Health is a nationally representative cross-sectional study conducted annually among persons aged 12 years and older in the United States. Daily cannabis use occurs nearly exclusively among nondaily and daily cigarette smokers compared with former and never smokers (8.03%, 9.01%, 2.79%, 1.05%, respectively). Daily cannabis use increased over the past decade among both nondaily (8.03% [2014] vs 2.85% [2002]; linear trend P < .001) and daily smokers (9.01% [2014]; 4.92% [2002]; linear trend P < .001). Daily cannabis use increased most rapidly among former cigarette smokers (2.79% [2014] vs 0.98% [2002]; linear trend P < .001). Daily cannabis use occurs predominantly among cigarette smokers in the United States. Daily cannabis use increased among current, former, and never smokers over the past decade, with particularly rapid increases among youth and female cigarette smokers. Future research is needed to monitor the observed increase in daily cannabis use, especially among youths and adults who smoke cigarettes.

Latitudinal dependence of variations in stratospheric NO2 content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2008-06-01

Diurnal and annual variations in the NO2 total content (TC), the effect of its decrease owing to the products of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, its variations during an 11-year cycle of solar activity, and its linear trends are analyzed on the basis of data obtained from the ground-based spectrometric measurements of the NO2 TC in stratospheric vertical columns over the stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change. Latitudinal dependence of the indicated variations and trends is revealed. The annual estimates of the linear trends of the NO2 TC are found to be mostly positive for the middle and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere and negative for the middle and low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum values of the positive and negative trends amount to ˜10% per ten years. In the high and polar latitudes of both hemispheres, the annual trend estimates are statistically insignificant. Seasonal estimates of the trends may differ from their annual estimates. The trends and solar-activity effect in the NO2 TC, which were estimated by using the two-dimensional model SOCRATES, as well as the analytical estimates of a zonal mean trend of the NO2 TC, on the whole, significantly differ from the estimates obtained from the measurements.

Investigating adolescents' sweetened beverage consumption and Western fast food restaurant visits in China, 2006-2011.

PubMed

Lee, Yen-Han; Chiang, Timothy C; Liu, Ching-Ti; Chang, Yen-Chang

2018-05-25

Background China has undergone rapid Westernization and established dramatic social reforms since the early 21st century. However, health issues led to challenges in the lives of the Chinese residents. Western fast food and sweetened beverages, two food options associated with chronic diseases and obesity, have played key roles to alter adolescents' dietary patterns. This study aims to examine the association between adolescents' visits to Western fast food restaurants and sweetened beverage consumption. Methods Applying three waves of the China Health and Nutrition Study (CHNS) between 2006 and 2011 (n = 1063), we used generalized Poisson regression (GPR) to investigate the association between adolescents' Western fast food restaurant visits and sweetened beverage consumption, as the popularity of fast food and sweetened beverages has skyrocketed among adolescents in contemporary China. A linear-by-linear association test was used as a trend test to study general patterns between sweetened beverage consumption and Western fast food restaurant visits. We adjusted all models with sweetened beverage consumption frequency, four food preferences (fast food, salty snacks, fruits and vegetables), school status, gross household income, provinces, rural/urban regions, age and gender. Results From the results of the trend test, frequent sweetened beverage consumption was highly associated with more Western fast food restaurant visits among Chinese adolescents in the three waves (p < 0.001). Furthermore, we observed that adolescents, who had less than monthly sweetened beverage consumption or did not drink them at all, had much less likelihood of visiting Western fast food restaurants (p < 0.05), compared with those daily consumers. Conclusion Adolescents' sweetened beverage consumption was highly associated with Western fast food restaurant visits in contemporary China. Further actions are needed from the Chinese central government to create a healthier dietary environment for adolescents.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Within crown variation in the relationship between foliage biomass and sapwood area in jack pine.

PubMed

Schneider, Robert; Berninger, Frank; Ung, Chhun-Huor; Mäkelä, Annikki; Swift, D Edwin; Zhang, S Y

2011-01-01

The relationship between sapwood area and foliage biomass is the basis for a lot of research on eco-phyisology. In this paper, foliage biomass change between two consecutive whorls is studied, using different variations in the pipe model theory. Linear and non-linear mixed-effect models relating foliage differences to sapwood area increments were tested to take into account whorl location, with the best fit statistics supporting the non-linear formulation. The estimated value of the exponent is 0.5130, which is significantly different from 1, the expected value given by the pipe model theory. When applied to crown stem sapwood taper, the model indicates that foliage biomass distribution influences the foliage biomass to sapwood area at crown base ratio. This result is interpreted as being the consequence of differences in the turnover rates of sapwood and foliage. More importantly, the model explains previously reported trends in jack pine sapwood area at crown base to tree foliage biomass ratio.

Assessing non-linear variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and their impacts on phenology in the Midwest of Jilin Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Wang, Yongfang; Alu, Si; Wang, Rui; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si

2018-05-01

In the past two decades, the regional climate in China has undergone significant change, resulting in crop yield reduction and complete failure. The goal of this study is to detect the variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and assess their impact on phenology. The daily meteorological data in the Midwest of Jilin Province during 1960-2014 were used in the study. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method was adopted to analyze the non-linear trend and fluctuation in temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivity of the length of the maize growth period to temperature and precipitation was analyzed by the wavelet cross-transformation method. The results show that the trends of temperature and precipitation change are non-linear for different growth periods of maize, and the average temperature in the sowing-jointing stage was different from that in the other growth stages, showing a slight decrease trend, while the variation amplitude of maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature. This indicates that the temperature difference between day and night shows a gradually decreasing trend. Precipitation in the growth period also showed a decreasing non-linear trend, while the inter-annual variability with period of quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year dominated the variation of temperature and precipitation. The whole growth period was shortened by 10.7 days, and the sowing date was advanced by approximately 11 days. We also found that there was a significant resonance period among temperature, precipitation, and phenology. Overall, a negative correlation between phenology and temperature is evident, while a positive correlation with precipitation is exhibited. The results illustrate that the climate suitability for maize has reduced over the past decades.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

Smart lighting using a liquid crystal modulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baril, Alexandre; Thibault, Simon; Galstian, Tigran

2017-08-01

Now that LEDs have massively invaded the illumination market, a clear trend has emerged for more efficient and targeted lighting. The project described here is at the leading edge of the trend and aims at developing an evaluation board to test smart lighting applications. This is made possible thanks to a new liquid crystal light modulator recently developed for broadening LED light beams. The modulator is controlled by electrical signals and is characterized by a linear working zone. This feature allows the implementation of a closed loop control with a sensor feedback. This project shows that the use of computer vision is a promising opportunity for cheap closed loop control. The developed evaluation board integrates the liquid crystal modulator, a webcam, a LED light source and all the required electronics to implement a closed loop control with a computer vision algorithm.

Remote Sensing Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Philipson, W. R. (Principal Investigator); Liang, T.; Philpot, W. D.

1983-01-01

Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were related to vineyard yield and other agronomic variables in an attempt to determine the optimum wavelengths for yield prediction modeling. Reflections between vine canopy reflectance and several management practices were also considered. Spectral analysis of test vines found that, although some correlations with vine yield were significant, they were inadequate for producing a yield prediction model. The findings also indicate that the vines examined through the field spectroradiometers were not truly representative. Geologic linears identified from aerial photographys, LANDSAT images, and maps were compared to gas well locations in three New York' counties. Correlations were found between the dominant trends in regional liners and gas field boundaries and trends. Other projects being conducted under the grant include determining vegetable acreage in mucklands, site selection for windmills, spectral effects of sulfur dioxide, and screening tomato seedlings for salt tolerance.

Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

2014-01-01

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

Declining trends in alcohol consumption among Swedish youth-does the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures apply?

PubMed

Raninen, Jonas; Livingston, Michael; Leifman, Håkan

2014-11-01

To analyse trends in alcohol consumption among young people in Sweden between 2004 and 2012, to test whether the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures is valid for a population of young people and to investigate the impact of an increasing proportion of abstainers on the overall per capita trends. Data were drawn from an annual survey of a nationally representative sample of students in year 11 (17-18 years old). The data covered 9 years and the total sample comprised 36,141 students. Changes in the overall per capita consumption were tested using linear regression on log-transformed data, and changes in abstention rates were tested using logistic regression. The analyses were then continued by calculating average consumption in deciles. Alcohol consumption among year 11 students declined significantly among both boys and girls between 2004 and 2012. These changes were reflected at all levels of consumption, and the same results were found when abstainers were excluded from the analyses. The increasing proportion of abstainers had a minimal effect on the overall decline in consumption; rather, this was driven by a decline in consumption among the heaviest drinkers. The theory of collectivity of drinking cultures seems valid for understanding changes in alcohol consumption among Swedish year 11 students. No support was found for a polarization of alcohol consumption in this nationally representative sample. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Learning and Study Strategies Inventory subtests and factors as predictors of National Board of Chiropractic Examiners Part 1 examination performance.

PubMed

Schutz, Christine M; Dalton, Leanne; Tepe, Rodger E

2013-01-01

This study was designed to extend research on the relationship between chiropractic students' learning and study strategies and national board examination performance. Sixty-nine first trimester chiropractic students self-administered the Learning and Study Strategies Inventory (LASSI). Linear trends tests (for continuous variables) and Mantel-Haenszel trend tests (for categorical variables) were utilized to determine if the 10 LASSI subtests and 3 factors predicted low, medium and high levels of National Board of Chiropractic Examiners (NBCE) Part 1 scores. Multiple regression was performed to predict overall mean NBCE examination scores using the 3 LASSI factors as predictor variables. Four LASSI subtests (Anxiety, Concentration, Selecting Main Ideas, Test Strategies) and one factor (Goal Orientation) were significantly associated with NBCE examination levels. One factor (Goal Orientation) was a significant predictor of overall mean NBCE examination performance. Learning and study strategies are predictive of NBCE Part 1 examination performance in chiropractic students. The current study found LASSI subtests Anxiety, Concentration, Selecting Main Ideas, and Test Strategies, and the Goal-Orientation factor to be significant predictors of NBCE scores. The LASSI may be useful to educators in preparing students for academic success. Further research is warranted to explore the effects of learning and study strategies training on GPA and NBCE performance.

Trends in thermal discomfort indices over western coastal cities of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Manasi S.; Dhorde, Amit G.

2018-02-01

The present research aimed at analyzing temporal trends in thermal discomfort indices for a period of 46 years from 1969 to 2014 over western coastal region of India for seven urban centers during the months of pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Direct thermal discomfort indices employed for this purpose were thermo-hygrometric index (THI) and heat index (HI). Statistical techniques applied for obtaining temporal trends were linear regression model and Mann-Kendall (MK) rank test. Statistical significance of the obtained trends was evaluated at 95% confidence level. Sequential MK (SQ-MK) test was used for change point detection. To investigate actual incidences of thermal discomfort, daily index values were averaged for standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) over the study period and decadal percentage of thermal discomfort during SMWs was estimated. Trend analysis of selected meteorological parameters such as dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) were investigated, which might be responsible for variation in thermal discomfort over the period. The results obtained depicted significant increase in thermal discomfort over the cities located on the southern part of west coast, while significant increase was observed during monsoon season months compared to pre-monsoon season. Decadal variation in percentage of SMWs falling in various discomfort categories was studied. At majority of the stations, moderate and high-risk SMWs have increased over the last two decades. The results of change point detection for THI and HI denoted significant increase at most of the stations after 1990s. The study validates increase in thermal discomfort vulnerability, particularly at thriving urban centers of western coastal region of India.

[Analysis on the trend of long-term change of blood pressure in hypertensive patients treated with benazepril].

PubMed

Lu, Jun; Li, Li-Ming; He, Ping-Ping; Cao, Wei-Hua; Zhan, Si-Yan; Hu, Yong-Hua

2004-06-01

To introduce the application of mixed linear model in the analysis of secular trend of blood pressure under antihypertensive treatment. A community-based postmarketing surveillance of benazepril was conducted in 1831 essential hypertensive patients (age range from 35 to 88 years) in Shanghai. Data of blood pressure was analyzed every 3 months with mixed linear model to describe the secular trend of blood pressure and changes of age-specific and gender-specific. The changing trends of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were found to fit the curvilinear models. A piecewise model was fit for pulse pressure (PP), i.e., curvilinear model in the first 9 months and linear model after 9 months of taking medication. Both blood pressure and its velocity gradually slowed down. There were significant variation for the curve parameters of intercept, slope, and acceleration. Blood pressure in patients with higher initial levels was persistently declining in the 3-year-treatment. However blood pressures of patients with relatively low initial levels remained low when dropped down to some degree. Elderly patients showed high SBP but low DBP, so as with higher PP. The velocity and sizes of blood pressure reductions increased with the initial level of blood pressure. Mixed linear model is flexible and robust when applied to the analysis of longitudinal data but with missing values and can also make the maximum use of available information.

Medico-legal litigation in Obstetrics: a characterization analysis of a decade in Portugal.

PubMed

Domingues, Ana Patrícia Rodrigues; Belo, Adriana; Moura, Paulo; Vieira, Duarte Nuno

2015-05-01

It was to analyse the most critical areas in Obstetrics and to suggest measures to reduce or avoid the situations most often involved in these disputes. Obstetrics cases submitted to the Medico-legal Council since the creation of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences in 2001 until 2011 were evaluated. A comprehensive characterization, determination of absolute/relative frequencies, hypothesis of a linear trend over the years and the association between each parameter was done. The analysis has shown no significantly linear trend. The most common reasons for disputes were perinatal asphyxia (50%), traumatic injuries of the newborn (24%), maternal sequelae (19%) and issues related to prenatal diagnosis and/or obstetric ultrasound (5.4%). Perinatal asphyxia showed no significantly linear trend (p=0.58) and was usually related to perinatal deaths or permanent neurologic sequelae in newborn children. Traumatic injuries of the newborn, mostly related to instrumented deliveries, shoulder dystocia or vaginal delivery in breech presentation, has shown a significantly increased linear trend (p<0.001), especially related to instrumented deliveries. The delay/absence of cesarean section was the clinical procedure questioned in a significantly higher number of cases of perinatal asphyxia (68.7%) and of traumatic lesions of the newborn due to instrumented deliveries (20.5%). It is important to improve and correct theoretical/practical daily clinical performance in these highlighted areas, in order to reduce or even avoid situations that could end up in medico-legal litigations.

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Incidence of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the vicinity of nuclear sites in Scotland, 1968-93.

PubMed Central

Sharp, L; Black, R J; Harkness, E F; McKinney, P A

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The primary aims were to investigate the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children resident near seven nuclear sites in Scotland and to determine whether there was any evidence of a gradient in risk with distance of residence from a nuclear site. A secondary aim was to assess the power of statistical tests for increased risk of disease near a point source when applied in the context of census data for Scotland. METHODS: The study data set comprised 1287 cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma diagnosed in children aged under 15 years in the period 1968-93, validated for accuracy and completeness. A study zone around each nuclear site was constructed from enumeration districts within 25 km. Expected numbers were calculated, adjusting for sex, age, and indices of deprivation and urban-rural residence. Six statistical tests were evaluated. Stone's maximum likelihood ratio (unconditional application) was applied as the main test for general increased incidence across a study zone. The linear risk score based on enumeration districts (conditional application) was used as a secondary test for declining risk with distance from each site. RESULTS: More cases were observed (O) than expected (E) in the study zones around Rosyth naval base (O/E 1.02), Chapelcross electricity generating station (O/E 1.08), and Dounreay reprocessing plant (O/E 1.99). The maximum likelihood ratio test reached significance only for Dounreay (P = 0.030). The linear risk score test did not indicate a trend in risk with distance from any of the seven sites, including Dounreay. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of a generally increased risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma around nuclear sites in Scotland, nor any evidence of a trend of decreasing risk with distance from any of the sites. There was a significant excess risk in the zone around Dounreay, which was only partially accounted for by the sociodemographic characteristics of the area. The statistical power of tests for localised increased risk of disease around a point source should be assessed in each new setting in which they are applied. PMID:8994402

Thyroid hormones and coronary artery calcification in euthyroid men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiyi; Kim, Bo-Kyoung; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Rampal, Sanjay; Zhao, Di; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Lima, Joao A; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

2014-09-01

Overt and subclinical hypothyroidism are risk factors for atherosclerosis. It is unclear whether thyroid hormone levels within the normal range are also associated with atherosclerosis measured by coronary artery calcium (CAC). We conducted a cross-sectional study of 41 403 apparently healthy young and middle-aged men and women with normal thyroid hormone levels. Free thyroxin, free triiodothyronine, and thyroid-stimulating hormone levels were measured by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay. CAC score was measured by multidetector computed tomography. The multivariable adjusted CAC ratios comparing the highest versus the lowest quartile of thyroid hormones were 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.91; P for trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.81 (0.66-1.00; P for trend=0.05) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.78 (0.64-0.95; P for trend=0.01) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. Similarly, the odds ratios for detectable CAC (CAC >0) comparing the highest versus the lowest quartiles of thyroid hormones were 0.87 (0.79-0.96; P for linear trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.90 (0.82-0.99; P for linear trend=0.02) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.91 (0.83-1.00; P for linear trend=0.03) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. In a large cohort of apparently healthy young and middle-aged euthyroid men and women, low-normal free thyroxin and thyroid-stimulating hormone were associated with a higher prevalence of subclinical coronary artery disease and with a greater degree of coronary calcification. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Riparian Bird Population Monitoring in Utah, 1992-2001

Treesearch

Russell E. Norvell; Frank P. Howe; Jimmie R. Parrish

2005-01-01

We report statewide linear and non-linear trends in density from 1992 to 2001 for six common bird species in the riparian areas of Utah. The six species examined here represent over 24 percent of all observations in the period. Four of the six species showed linear declines (Black-headed Grosbeak [Pheucticus melanocephalus], American Goldfinch [

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

ON EDGE CHIPPING TESTING AND SOME PERSONAL PERSPECTIVES ON THE STATE OF THE ART OF MECHANICAL TESTING

PubMed Central

Quinn, G. D.

2014-01-01

Objective The edge chipping test is used to measure the fracture resistance of dental restoration ceramics and resin composites. This paper focuses on the progress of evaluating chipping resistance of these materials and also on the progress of standardization of this test method. This paper also makes observations about the state of the art of mechanical testing of ceramic and composite restorative materials in general. Interlaboratory comparative studies (“round robins”) are recommended. Methods An edge chipping machine was used to evaluate dozens of materials including porcelains, glass ceramics, aluminas, zirconias, filled resin-composites, new hybrid ceramic-resin composites, laminated composite ceramics, and even polymethyl methacrylate based denture materials. Force versus distance data were collected over a broad range with different indenters. Several chipping resistance parameters were quantified. Results Older restorative materials such as feldspathic porcelains and veneering materials had limited chipping resistance, but more modern ceramics and filled composites show significant improvements. A yttria-partially stabilized zirconia had the greatest resistance to chipping. Much of the early work on edge chipping resistance of brittle materials emphasized linear force versus distance trends obtained with relatively blunt Rockwell C indenters. More recently, trends for dental restorative materials with alternative sharper indenters have been nonlinear. A new phenomenological model with a simple quadratic function fits all data exceptionally well. It is loosely based on an energy balance between indenter work and fracture and deformation energies in the chipped material. Significance Although a direct comparison of our laboratory scale tests on idealized simple geometries to clinical outcomes has not yet been done, anecdotal evidence suggests the procedure does produce clinically relevant rankings and outcomes. Despite the variations in the trends and indenters, comparisons between materials can easily be made by chipping convenient block-shaped specimens with sharp conical 120°, Vickers, or Rockwell C indenters at a defined edge distance of 0.5 mm. Broad distance ranges are recommended for trend evaluation. This work has provided important information for standardization. PMID:25244927

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Light and short arc rubs in rotating machines: Experimental tests and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennacchi, P.; Bachschmid, N.; Tanzi, E.

2009-10-01

Rotor-to-stator rub is a non-linear phenomenon which has been analyzed many times in rotordynamics literature, but very often these studies are devoted simply to highlight non-linearities, using very simple rotors, rather than to present reliable models. However, rotor-to-stator rub is actually one of the most common faults during the operation of rotating machinery. The frequency of its occurrence is increasing due to the trend of reducing the radial clearance between the seal and the rotor in modern turbine units, pumps and compressors in order to increase efficiency. Often the rub occurs between rotor and seals and the analysis of the phenomenon cannot set aside the consideration of the different relative stiffness. This paper presents some experimental results obtained by means of a test rig in which rub conditions of real machines are reproduced. In particular short arc rubs are considered and the shaft is stiffer than the obstacle. Then a model, suitable to be employed for real rotating machinery, is presented and the simulations obtained are compared with the experimental results. The model is able to reproduce the behaviour of the test rig.

An analysis of booster tone noise using a time-linearized Navier-Stokes solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wukie, Nathan A.

This thesis details a computational investigation of tone noise generated from a booster(low-pressure compressor) in a fan test rig. The computational study consisted of sets of time-linearized Navier-Stokes simulations in the booster region to investigate the blade-wake interactions that act as the primary noise-generating mechanism for the booster blade-passing frequency and harmonics. An acoustic test database existed with data at several operating points for the fan test rig that was used to compare against the predicted noise data from the computational study. It is shown that the computational methodology is able to capture trends in sound power for the 1st and 2nd booster tones along the operating line for the rig. It is also shown that the computational study underpredicts one of the tones at low power and is not able to capture a peak in the data at the Cutback condition. Further investigation of this type is warranted to quantify the source of discrepancies between the computational and experimental data as the reflected transmisison of sound off the fan through the bypass duct was not accounted for in this study.

Monitoring HIV Testing in the United States: Consequences of Methodology Changes to National Surveys

PubMed Central

Van Handel, Michelle M.; Branson, Bernard M.

2015-01-01

Objective In 2011, the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), an in-person household interview, revised the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) section of the survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a telephone-based survey, added cellphone numbers to its sampling frame. We sought to determine how these changes might affect assessment of HIV testing trends. Methods We used linear regression with pairwise contrasts with 2003-2013 data from NHIS and BRFSS to compare percentages of persons aged 18-64 years who reported HIV testing in landline versus cellphone-only households before and after 2011, when NHIS revised its in-person questionnaire and BRFSS added cellphone numbers to its telephone-based sample. Results In NHIS, the percentage of persons in cellphone-only households increased 13-fold from 2003 to 2013. The percentage ever tested for HIV was 6%–10% higher among persons in cellphone-only than landline households. The percentage ever tested for HIV increased significantly from 40.2% in 2003 to 45.0% in 2010, but was significantly lower in 2011 (40.6%) and 2012 (39.7%). In BRFSS, the percentage ever tested decreased significantly from 45.9% in 2003 to 40.2% in 2010, but increased to 42.9% in 2011 and 43.5% in 2013. Conclusions HIV testing estimates were lower after NHIS questionnaire changes but higher after BRFSS methodology changes. Data before and after 2011 are not comparable, complicating assessment of trends. PMID:25927983

The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities.

PubMed

Scherb, Hagen; Voigt, Kristina

2011-06-01

Ever since the discovery of the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation, the possibility of birth sex odds shifts in exposed human populations was considered in the scientific community. Positive evidence, however weak, was obtained after the atomic bombing of Japan. We previously investigated trends in the sex odds before and after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident. In a pilot study, combined data from the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Poland, and Sweden between 1982 and 1992 showed a downward trend in the sex odds and a significant jump in 1987, the year immediately after Chernobyl. Moreover, a significant positive association of the sex odds between 1986 and 1991 with Chernobyl fallout at the district level in Germany was observed. Both of these findings, temporality (effect after exposure) and dose response association, yield evidence of causality. The primary aim of this study was to investigate longer time periods (1950-2007) in all of Europe and in the USA with emphasis on the global atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout and on the Chernobyl accident. To obtain further evidence, we also analyze sex odds data near nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland. DATA AND STATISTICAL METHODS: National gender-specific annual live births data for 39 European countries from 1975 to 2007 were compiled using the pertinent internet data bases provided by the World Health Organization, United Nations, Council of Europe, and EUROSTAT. For a synoptic re-analysis of the period 1950 to 1990, published data from the USA and from a predominantly western and less Chernobyl-exposed part of Europe were studied additionally. To assess spatial, temporal, as well as spatial-temporal trends in the sex odds and to investigate possible changes in those trends after the atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities, we applied ordinary linear logistic regression. Region-specific and eventually changing spatial-temporal trends were analyzed using dummy variables coding for continents, countries, districts, municipalities, time periods, and appropriate spatial-temporal interactions. The predominantly western European sex odds trend together with the US sex odds trend (1950-1990 each) show a similar behavior. Both trends are consistent with a uniform reduction from 1950 to 1964, an increase from 1964 to 1975 that may be associated with delayed global atomic bomb test fallout released prior to the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and again a more or less constant decrease from 1975 to 1990. In practically all of Europe, including eastern European countries, from 1975 to 1986, and in the USA from 1975 to 2002, there were highly significant uniform downward trends in the sex odds with a reduction of 0.22% to 0.25% per 10 years. In contrast to the USA, in Europe there was a highly significant jump of the sex odds of 0.20% in the year 1987 following Chernobyl. From 1987 to 2000, the European sex odds trend reversed its sign and went upward, highly significantly so, with 0.42% per 10 years relative to the downward trend before Chernobyl. The global secular trend analyses are corroborated by the analysis of spatial-temporal sex odds trends near nuclear facilities (NF) in Germany and Switzerland. Within 35 km distance from those NF, the sex odds increase significantly in the range of 0.30% to 0.40% during NF operating time. The atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout affected the human sex odds at birth overall, and the Chernobyl fallout had a similar impact in Europe and parts of Asia. The birth sex odds near nuclear facilities are also distorted. The persistently disturbed secular human sex odds trends allow the estimation of the global deficit of births in the range of several millions.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

Preliminary characterization of digestive enzymes in freshwater mussels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauey, Blake W.; Amberg, Jon J.; Cooper, Scott T.; Grunwald, Sandra K.; Newton, Teresa J.; Haro, Roger J.

2015-01-01

Resource managers lack an effective chemical tool to control the invasive zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha. Zebra mussels clog water intakes for hydroelectric companies, harm unionid mussel species, and are believed to be a reservoir of avian botulism. Little is known about the digestive physiology of zebra mussels and unionid mussels. The enzymatic profile of the digestive glands of zebra mussels and native threeridge (Amblema plicata) and plain pocketbook mussels (Lampsilis cardium) are characterized using a commercial enzyme kit, api ZYM, and validated the kit with reagent-grade enzymes. A linear correlation was shown for only one of nineteen enzymes, tested between the api ZYM kit and a specific enzyme kit. Thus, the api ZYM kit should only be used to make general comparisons of enzyme presence and to observe trends in enzyme activities. Enzymatic trends were seen in the unionid mussel species, but not in zebra mussels sampled 32 days apart from the same location. Enzymatic classes, based on substrate, showed different trends, with proteolytic and phospholytic enzymes having the most change in relative enzyme activity.

Assessing transportation infrastructure impacts on rangelands: test of a standard rangeland assessment protocol

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duniway, Michael C.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Pyke, David A.; Toledo, David

2010-01-01

Linear disturbances associated with on- and off-road vehicle use on rangelands has increased dramatically throughout the world in recent decades. This increase is due to a variety of factors including increased availability of all-terrain vehicles, infrastructure development (oil, gas, renewable energy, and ex-urban), and recreational activities. In addition to the direct impacts of road development, the presence and use of roads may alter resilience of adjoining areas through indirect effects such as altered site hydrologic and eolian processes, invasive seed dispersal, and sediment transport. There are few standardized methods for assessing impacts of transportation-related land-use activities on soils and vegetation in arid and semi-arid rangelands. Interpreting Indicators of Rangeland Health (IIRH) is an internationally accepted qualitative assessment that is applied widely to rangelands. We tested the sensitivity of IIRH to impacts of roads, trails, and pipelines on adjacent lands by surveying plots at three distances from these linear disturbances. We performed tests at 16 randomly selected sites in each of three ecosystems (Northern High Plains, Colorado Plateau, and Chihuahuan Desert) for a total of 208 evaluation plots. We also evaluated the repeatability of IIRH when applied to road-related disturbance gradients. Finally, we tested extent of correlations between IIRH plot attribute departure classes and trends in a suite of quantitative indicators. Results indicated that the IIRH technique is sensitive to direct and indirect impacts of transportation activities with greater departure from reference condition near disturbances than far from disturbances. Trends in degradation of ecological processes detected with qualitative assessments were highly correlated with quantitative data. Qualitative and quantitative assessments employed in this study can be used to assess impacts of transportation features at the plot scale. Through integration with remote sensing technologies, these methods could also potentially be used to assess cumulative impacts of transportation networks at the landscape scale.

Use of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals to Evaluate Model Estimates by the Australian Water Resources Assessment System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.; Rodell, M.

2011-01-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates retrievals from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were compared to TWS modeled by the Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) system. The aim was to test whether differences could be attributed and used to identify model deficiencies. Data for 2003 2010 were decomposed into the seasonal cycle, linear trends and the remaining de-trended anomalies before comparing. AWRA tended to have smaller seasonal amplitude than GRACE. GRACE showed a strong (greater than 15 millimeter per year) drying trend in northwest Australia that was associated with a preceding period of unusually wet conditions, whereas weaker drying trends in the southern Murray Basin and southwest Western Australia were associated with relatively dry conditions. AWRA estimated trends were less negative for these regions, while a more positive trend was estimated for areas affected by cyclone Charlotte in 2009. For 2003-2009, a decrease of 7-8 millimeter per year (50-60 cubic kilometers per year) was estimated from GRACE, enough to explain 6-7% of the contemporary rate of global sea level rise. This trend was not reproduced by the model. Agreement between model and data suggested that the GRACE retrieval error estimates are biased high. A scaling coefficient applied to GRACE TWS to reduce the effect of signal leakage appeared to degrade quantitative agreement for some regions. Model aspects identified for improvement included a need for better estimation of rainfall in northwest Australia, and more sophisticated treatment of diffuse groundwater discharge processes and surface-groundwater connectivity for some regions.

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

2016-10-01

As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges.

PubMed

Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent; Ottvall, Richard; Van Turnhout, Chris; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Lindström, Ake

2010-12-07

Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.

Analytic and clinical performance of cobas HPV testing in anal specimens from HIV-positive men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Wentzensen, Nicolas; Follansbee, Stephen; Borgonovo, Sylvia; Tokugawa, Diane; Sahasrabuddhe, Vikrant V; Chen, Jie; Lorey, Thomas S; Gage, Julia C; Fetterman, Barbara; Boyle, Sean; Sadorra, Mark; Tang, Scott Dahai; Darragh, Teresa M; Castle, Philip E

2014-08-01

Anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are common, and the incidence of anal cancer is high in HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM). To evaluate the performance of HPV assays in anal samples, we compared the cobas HPV test (cobas) to the Roche Linear Array HPV genotyping assay (LA) and cytology in HIV-infected MSM. Cytology and cobas and LA HPV testing were conducted for 342 subjects. We calculated agreement between the HPV assays and the clinical performance of HPV testing and HPV genotyping alone and in combination with anal cytology. We observed high agreement between cobas and LA, with cobas more likely than LA to show positive results for HPV16, HPV18, and other carcinogenic types. Specimens testing positive in cobas but not in LA were more likely to be positive for other markers of HPV-related disease compared to those testing negative in both assays, suggesting that at least some of these were true positives for HPV. cobas and LA showed high sensitivities but low specificities for the detection of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 (AIN2/3) in this population (100% sensitivity and 26% specificity for cobas versus 98.4% sensitivity and 28.9% specificity for LA). A combination of anal cytology and HPV genotyping provided the highest accuracy for detecting anal precancer. A higher HPV load was associated with a higher risk of AIN2/3 with HPV16 (P(trend) < 0.001), HPV18 (P(trend) = 0.07), and other carcinogenic types (P(trend) < 0.001). We demonstrate that cobas can be used for HPV detection in anal cytology specimens. Additional tests are necessary to identify men at the highest risk of anal cancer among those infected with high-risk HPV. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Trend-outflow method for understanding interactions of surface water with groundwater and atmospheric water for eight reaches of the Upper Rio Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Sheng, Zhuping

2011-11-01

SummaryAtmospheric water, surface water, and groundwater interact very actively through hydrologic processes such as precipitation, infiltration, seepage, irrigation, drainage, evaporation, and evapotranspiration in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. A trend-outflow method has been developed in this paper to gain a better understanding of the interactions based on cumulated inflow and outflow data for any river reaches of interest. A general trend-outflow equation was derived by associating the net interaction of surface water with atmospheric water as a polynomial of inflow and the net interaction of surface water with groundwater as a constant based on surface water budget. Linear and quadratic relations are probably two common trend-outflow types in the real world. It was found that trend-outflows of the Upper Rio Grande reaches, Española, Albuquerque, Socorro-Engle, Palomas, and Rincon are linear with inflow, while those of reaches, Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are quadratic. Reaches Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are found as water deficit reaches mainly for irrigated agriculture in extreme drought years.

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Erickson, M. P.; Smith, M. R.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

Epidemiological Survey of Dyslipidemia in Civil Aviators in China from 2006 to 2011

PubMed Central

Zhao, Rongfu; Xiao, Dan; Fan, Xiaoying; Ge, Zesong; Wang, Linsheng; Yan, Tiecheng; Wang, Jianzhi; Wei, Qixin; Zhao, Yan

2014-01-01

Aim. This study aimed to analyze blood lipid levels, temporal trend, and age distribution of dyslipidemia in civil aviators in China. Methods. The 305 Chinese aviators were selected randomly and followed up from 2006 to 2011. Their total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels were evaluated annually. Mean values for each parameter by year were compared using a linear mixed-effects model. The temporal trend of borderline high, high, and low status for each index and of overall borderline high, hyperlipidemia, and dyslipidemia by year was tested using a generalized linear mixed model. Results. The aviators' TC (F = 4.33, P < 0.01), HDL-C (F = 23.25, P < 0.01), and LDL-C (F = 6.13, P < 0.01) values differed across years. The prevalence of dyslipidemia (F = 5.53, P < 0.01), borderline high (F = 6.52, P < 0.01), and hyperlipidemia (F = 3.90, P < 0.01) also differed across years. The prevalence rates for hyperlipidemia and dyslipidemia were the highest in the 41–50-year-old and 31–40-year-old groups. Conclusions. Civil aviators in China were in high dyslipidemia and borderline high level and presented with dyslipidemia younger than other Chinese populations. PMID:24693285

Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

2017-11-01

In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

A prospective cohort study among new Chinese coal miners: the early pattern of lung function change.

PubMed

Wang, M-L; Wu, Z-E; Du, Q-G; Petsonk, E L; Peng, K-L; Li, Y-D; Li, S-K; Han, G-H; Atffield, M D

2005-11-01

To investigate the early pattern of longitudinal change in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) among new Chinese coal miners, and the relation between coal mine dust exposure and the decline of lung function. The early pattern of lung function changes in 317 newly hired Chinese underground coal miners was compared to 132 referents. This three year prospective cohort study involved a pre-employment and 15 follow up health surveys, including a questionnaire and spirometry tests. Twice a month, total and respirable dust area sampling was done. The authors used a two stage analysis and a linear mixed effects model approach to analyse the longitudinal spirometry data, and to investigate the changes in FEV1 over time, controlling for age, height, pack years of smoking, mean respirable dust concentration, the room temperature during testing, and the groupxtime interaction terms. FEV1 change over time in new miners is non-linear. New miners experience initial rapid FEV1 declines, primarily during the first year of mining, little change during the second year, and partial recovery during the third year. Both linear and quadratic time trends in FEV1 change are highly significant. Smoking miners lost more FEV1 than non-smokers. Referents, all age less than 20 years, showed continued lung growth, whereas the miners who were under age 20 exhibited a decline in FEV1. Dust and smoking affect lung function in young, newly hired Chinese coal miners. FEV1 change over the first three years of employment is non-linear. The findings have implications for both methods and interpretation of medical screening in coal mining and other dusty work: during the first several years of employment more frequent testing may be desirable, and caution is required in interpreting early FEV1 declines.

Counties eliminating racial disparities in colorectal cancer mortality.

PubMed

Rust, George; Zhang, Shun; Yu, Zhongyuan; Caplan, Lee; Jain, Sanjay; Ayer, Turgay; McRoy, Luceta; Levine, Robert S

2016-06-01

Although colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality rates are declining, racial-ethnic disparities in CRC mortality nationally are widening. Herein, the authors attempted to identify county-level variations in this pattern, and to characterize counties with improving disparity trends. The authors examined 20-year trends in US county-level black-white disparities in CRC age-adjusted mortality rates during the study period between 1989 and 2010. Using a mixed linear model, counties were grouped into mutually exclusive patterns of black-white racial disparity trends in age-adjusted CRC mortality across 20 three-year rolling average data points. County-level characteristics from census data and from the Area Health Resources File were normalized and entered into a principal component analysis. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to test the relation between these factors (clusters of related contextual variables) and the disparity trend pattern group for each county. Counties were grouped into 4 disparity trend pattern groups: 1) persistent disparity (parallel black and white trend lines); 2) diverging (widening disparity); 3) sustained equality; and 4) converging (moving from disparate outcomes toward equality). The initial principal component analysis clustered the 82 independent variables into a smaller number of components, 6 of which explained 47% of the county-level variation in disparity trend patterns. County-level variation in social determinants, health care workforce, and health systems all were found to contribute to variations in cancer mortality disparity trend patterns from 1990 through 2010. Counties sustaining equality over time or moving from disparities to equality in cancer mortality suggest that disparities are not inevitable, and provide hope that more communities can achieve optimal and equitable cancer outcomes for all. Cancer 2016;122:1735-48. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Trend of Changes in Serum Albumin and Its Relation with Sex, Age, and BMI Following Laparoscopic Mini-gastric Bypass Surgery in Morbid Obese Cases.

PubMed

Karimi, Mehrdad; Kabir, Ali; Nejatifar, Masoumeh; Pazouki, Abdolreza

2018-03-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the pattern of changes in serum albumin level after mini-gastric bypass (MGB) and its association with gender, age, and body mass index (BMI) of the patients. This cohort study was conducted on 196 morbidly obese patients undergoing MGB followed for 1 year. The data on BMI, serum albumin level, demographic, anthropometric, biochemical variables and comorbidities were gathered before and after (3, 6, and 12 months) surgery. The trend of changes in BMI and serum albumin of the patients was investigated by repeated measures tests using general linear model (GLM) and generalized estimating equations (GEE) approaches. The mean age, baseline median BMI, and albumin of the patients were 41.34 ± 11.03 years, 44.54 kg/m 2 , and 4.00 g/dl, respectively. There was a chronologically significant trend of decline in BMI (P < 0.001). GEE demonstrated no chronologically significant trend in serum albumin (P = 0.278). The trend of changes in albumin was significantly associated only with age grouping and baseline serum albumin level (P = 0.017 and 0.001, respectively). This trend had fluctuations in patients older than 40 years with baseline serum albumin level of 3.50-3.90 g/dl. For patients with any age and baseline serum albumin level of 4.00-4.90 g/dl, this trend was stable in all periods of follow-up. MGB is an effective technique to lose weight. The trend of changes in serum albumin level was affected by its baseline levels and age.

Significant calendar period deviations in testicular germ cell tumors indicate that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

PubMed

Speaks, Crystal; McGlynn, Katherine A; Cook, Michael B

2012-10-01

The current working model of type II testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) pathogenesis states that carcinoma in situ arises during embryogenesis, is a necessary precursor, and always progresses to cancer. An implicit condition of this model is that only in utero exposures affect the development of TGCT in later life. In an age-period-cohort analysis, this working model contends an absence of calendar period deviations. We tested this contention using data from the SEER registries of the United States. We assessed age-period-cohort models of TGCTs, seminomas, and nonseminomas for the period 1973-2008. Analyses were restricted to whites diagnosed at ages 15-74 years. We tested whether calendar period deviations were significant in TGCT incidence trends adjusted for age deviations and cohort effects. This analysis included 32,250 TGCTs (18,475 seminomas and 13,775 nonseminomas). Seminoma incidence trends have increased with an average annual percentage change in log-linear rates (net drift) of 1.25 %, relative to just 0.14 % for nonseminoma. In more recent time periods, TGCT incidence trends have plateaued and then undergone a slight decrease. Calendar period deviations were highly statistically significant in models of TGCT (p = 1.24(-9)) and seminoma (p = 3.99(-14)), after adjustment for age deviations and cohort effects; results for nonseminoma (p = 0.02) indicated that the effects of calendar period were much more muted. Calendar period deviations play a significant role in incidence trends of TGCT, which indicates that postnatal exposures are etiologically relevant.

Influences of removing linear and nonlinear trends from climatic variables on temporal variations of annual reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Yao, Ning; Chau, Henry Wai

2017-08-15

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ) is a key parameter in field irrigation scheduling, drought assessment and climate change research. ET o uses key prescribed (or fixed or reference) land surface parameters for crops. The linear and nonlinear trends in different climatic variables (CVs) affect ET o change. This research aims to reveal how ET o responds after the related CVs were linearly and nonlinearly detrended over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China. The ET o -related CVs included minimum (T min ), average (T ave ), and maximum air temperatures (T max ), wind speed at 2m (U 2 ), relative humidity (RH) and sunshine hour (n). ET o was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. A total of 29 ET o scenarios, including the original scenario, 14 scenarios in Group I (ET o was recalculated after removing linear trends from single or more CVs) and 14 scenarios in Group II (ET o was recalculated after removing nonlinear trends from the CVs), were generated. The influence of U 2 was stronger than influences of the other CVs on ET o for both Groups I and II either in northern, southern or the entirety of Xinjiang. The weak influences of increased T min , T ave and T max on increasing ET o were masked by the strong effects of decreased U 2 &n and increased RH on decreasing ET o . The effects of the trends in CVs, especially U 2 , on changing ET o were clearly shown. Without the general decreases of U 2 , ET o would have increased in the past 53years. Due to the non-monotone variations of the CVs and ET o , the results of nonlinearly detrending CVs on changing ET o in Group II should be more plausible than the results of linearly detrending CVs in Group I. The decreasing ET o led to a general relief in drought, which was indicated by the recalculated aridity index. Therefore, there would be a slightly lower risk of water utilization in Xinjiang, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inverse sequential procedures for the monitoring of time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1995-01-01

When one or more new values are added to a developing time series, they change its descriptive parameters (mean, variance, trend, coherence). A 'change index (CI)' is developed as a quantitative indicator that the changed parameters remain compatible with the existing 'base' data. CI formulate are derived, in terms of normalized likelihood ratios, for small samples from Poisson, Gaussian, and Chi-Square distributions, and for regression coefficients measuring linear or exponential trends. A substantial parameter change creates a rapid or abrupt CI decrease which persists when the length of the bases is changed. Except for a special Gaussian case, the CI has no simple explicit regions for tests of hypotheses. However, its design ensures that the series sampled need not conform strictly to the distribution form assumed for the parameter estimates. The use of the CI is illustrated with both constructed and observed data samples, processed with a Fortran code 'Sequitor'.

Effect of laser irradiation on surface hardness and structural parameters of 7178 aluminium alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maryam, Siddra; Bashir, Farooq

2018-04-01

Aluminium 7178 samples were prepared and irradiated with Nd:YAG laser. The surfaces of exposed samples were investigated using optical microscopy, which revealed that the surface morphology of the samples is changed drastically as a function of laser shots. It is revealed from the micrographs that the laser heat effected area increases with the increase in the number of the laser pulses. Furthermore morphological and mechanical properties were studied using XRD and Vickers hardness testing. XRD study shows an increasing trend in Grain size with the increasing number of laser shots. And the hardness of the samples as a function of the laser shots shows that the hardness first increases and then it decreases gradually. It was observed that the grain size has no pronouncing effect on the hardness. Hardness profile has a decreasing trend with the increase in linear distance from the boundary of the laser heat affected area.

Determination of minimum suction level necessary for field dental units.

PubMed

Charlton, David G

2010-04-01

A significant problem with most field dental units is that their suction is too weak to effectively remove debris from the mouth. The purpose of this study was to determine the minimum clinically acceptable suction level for routine dentistry. A vacuum pump was connected to a high-volume dental evacuation line in a simulated clinical setting and different suction airflow rates were evaluated by nine evaluator dentists for their capability to effectively remove amalgam debris and water. Airflow levels were rated as "clinically acceptable" or "clinically unacceptable" by each evaluator. Data were analyzed using a chi2 test for trend. Analysis indicated a significant linear trend between airflow and ratings (p < 0.0001). The first airflow level considered by all evaluators as producing clinically acceptable suction was 4.5 standard cubic feet per minute (0.127 standard cubic meters per minute). This value should be the minimum level required for all military field dental units.

Trend Analyses of Users of a Syringe Exchange Program in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 1999-2014.

PubMed

Maurer, Laurie A; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Ye, Du; Benitez, José; Mazzella, Silvana; Krafty, Robert

2016-12-01

This study examines trends of injection drug users' (IDUs) use of a Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, syringe exchange program (SEP) from 1999 to 2014, including changes in demographics, drug use, substance abuse treatment, geographic indicators, and SEP use. Prevention Point Philadelphia's SEP registration data were analyzed using linear regression, Pearson's Chi square, and t-tests. Over time new SEP registrants have become younger, more racially diverse, and geographically more concentrated in specific areas of the city, corresponding to urban demographic shifts. The number of new registrants per year has decreased, however syringes exchanged have increased. Gentrification, cultural norms, and changes in risk perception are believed to have contributed to the changes in SEP registration. Demographic changes indicate outreach strategies for IDUs may need adjusting to address unique barriers for younger, more racially diverse users. Implications for SEPs are discussed, including policy and continued ability to address current public health threats.

Trends in Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Publications Over the Past 16 Years.

PubMed

Mimouni, Michael; Cismariu-Potash, Keren; Ratmansky, Motti; Shaklai, Sharon; Amir, Hagay; Mimouni-Bloch, Aviva

2016-06-01

To test the hypothesis that the number of publications in the field of physical medicine and rehabilitation (PMR) has increased over the last 16 years in a linear fashion, and to compare the trends in publication between the pediatric and adult literature. We evaluated all MEDLINE articles from January 1, 1998, to December 31, 2013, using Medical Subject Headings categories of rehabilitation. An age filter separated adult and pediatric articles. We divided articles into those with a low level of scientific evidence such as letters and editorials, and those with a high level of evidence such as controlled trials and meta-analyses. We used regression analysis to evaluate the effect of the year of publication on the number of publications of each type. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. MEDLINE reported a total of 98,501 adult publications and 30,895 pediatric publications during the evaluated period. There was a significant linear increase in the total number of publications in adult and pediatric rehabilitation publications with multiplication factors of 3.3 and 2.9, respectively. Importantly, publications with a high level of evidence showed larger multiplication factors compared with those with a low level of evidence (5.5 and 5.1 vs 2.1 and 2.0) for the adult and pediatric literature. The number of publications in the PMR field, especially those with a high level of scientific evidence, has increased linearly over the years, reflecting the rapid evolution of both adult and pediatric PMR. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term exposure to crystalline silica and risk of heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Yuewei; Rong, Yi; Steenland, Kyle; Christiani, David C; Huang, Xiji; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2014-09-01

The association between crystalline silica exposure and risk of heart disease mortality remains less clear. We investigated a cohort of 42,572 Chinese workers who were potentially exposed to crystalline silica and followed from 1960 to 2003. Cumulative silica exposure was estimated by linking a job-exposure matrix to each person's work history. Low-level silica exposure was defined as never having held a job with an exposure higher than 0.1 mg/m. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) in exposure-response analyses using Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 2846 deaths from heart disease during an average of 35 years follow-up. Positive exposure-response trends were observed for cumulative silica exposure associated with mortality from total heart disease (HRs for increasing quartiles of cumulative silica exposure compared with the unexposed group = 0.89, 1.09, 1.32, 2.10; P for linear trend < 0.001) and pulmonary heart disease (0.92, 1.39, 2.47, 5.46; P for linear trend < 0.001). These positive trends remained among workers with both high- and low-level silica exposure. There was also a positive trend for ischemic heart disease among workers with low-level exposure, with quartile HRs of 1.04, 1.13, 1.52, and 1.60 (P for linear trend < 0.001). Low-level crystalline silica exposure was associated with increased mortality from heart disease, including pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease, whereas high-level exposure mainly increased mortality from pulmonary heart disease. Current permissible exposure limits for crystalline silica in many countries may be insufficient to protect people from deaths due to heart disease.

Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), p<0.0001) while rates among women decreased (EAPC=-0.01% (95% CI:-0.02 to -0.002), p=0.03). APC analysis revealed significant non-linear positive period and cohort effects in men, with higher effects among younger men (25-49 years). Non-significant increasing trends were observed in younger women (25-49 years). APC analyses from the Mumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends in reproductive health knowledge following a health education intervention among adolescents in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Rusakaniko, S; Mbizvo, M T; Kasule, J; Gupta, V; Kinoti, S N; Mpanju-Shumbushu, W; Sebina-Zziwa, J; Mwateba, R; Padayachy, J

1997-01-01

Unwanted teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections and the attendant morbidity and mortality necessitate the need for understanding factors influencing adolescent sexuality and the implementation of programmes designed to improve their knowledge, reproductive behaviour, sexual and reproductive health. To determine the impact of an intervention package on knowledge levels of various reproductive health issues through trend analysis. Randomized controlled trial of a health education intervention in schools stratified for representativeness. Rural and urban secondary schools in Zimbabwe. 1,689 students recruited from 11 secondary schools in Mashonaland Central. Knowledge level before and after intervention. The demographic characteristics of the pupils at baseline, five months and nine months were comparable between the two groups. There was an overall increase in knowledge on menstruation. Students from the intervention schools were more likely to have correct knowledge over time on aspects of reproductive biology. A significant linear trend (p = 0.017) was observed in the area of family planning and contraception. A linear decreasing trend (p = 0.001) was observed on pregnancy risk. Though not significantly linear, the general trend of knowledge levels in all the areas of reproductive health, pregnancy risk, STDs and HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend, from 20% to 96%. Worth noting was that in all the areas the intervention group had knowledge above that in the control group. The reproductive health education intervention had an impact on aspects of reproductive biology and contraception as measured by the increased scoring at follow up when comparing intervention and control schools. The overall findings point to the need for early school based reproductive health education programmes incooperating correct information on reproductive biology and the prevention of subsequent reproductive morbidity by imparting information on non-risk behaviour during the early developmental years.

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

Twenty-year trends in cardiovascular risk factors in India and influence of educational status.

PubMed

Gupta, Rajeev; Guptha, Soneil; Gupta, V P; Agrawal, Aachu; Gaur, Kiran; Deedwania, Prakash C

2012-12-01

Urban middle-socioeconomic status (SES) subjects have high burden of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income countries. To determine secular trends in risk factors among this population and to correlate risks with educational status we performed epidemiological studies in India. Five cross-sectional studies were performed in middle-SES urban locations in Jaipur, India from years 1992 to 2010. Cluster sampling was performed. Subjects (men, women) aged 20-59 years evaluated were 712 (459, 253) in 1992-94, 558 (286, 272) in 1999-2001, 374 (179, 195) in 2002-03, 887 (414, 473) in 2004-05, and 530 (324, 206) in 2009-10. Data were obtained by history, anthropometry, and fasting blood glucose and lipids estimation. Response rates varied from 55 to 75%. Mean values and risk factor prevalence were determined. Secular trends were identified using quadratic and log-linear regression and chi-squared for trend. Across the studies, there was high prevalence of overweight, hypertension, and lipid abnormalities. Age- and sex-adjusted trends showed significant increases in mean body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (quadratic and log-linear regression, p < 0.001). Systolic blood pressure (BP) decreased while insignificant changes were observed for waist-hip ratio and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Categorical trends showed increase in overweight and decrease in smoking (p < 0.05); insignificant changes were observed in truncal obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes. Adjustment for educational status attenuated linear trends in BMI and total and LDL cholesterol and accentuated trends in systolic BP, glucose, and HDL cholesterol. There was significant association of an increase in education with decline in smoking and an increase in overweight (two-line regression p < 0.05). In Indian urban middle-SES subjects there is high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Over a 20-year period BMI and overweight increased, smoking and systolic BP decreased, and truncal obesity, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes remained stable. Increasing educational status attenuated trends for systolic BP, glucose and HDL cholesterol, and BMI.

Single-variant and multi-variant trend tests for genetic association with next-generation sequencing that are robust to sequencing error.

PubMed

Kim, Wonkuk; Londono, Douglas; Zhou, Lisheng; Xing, Jinchuan; Nato, Alejandro Q; Musolf, Anthony; Matise, Tara C; Finch, Stephen J; Gordon, Derek

2012-01-01

As with any new technology, next-generation sequencing (NGS) has potential advantages and potential challenges. One advantage is the identification of multiple causal variants for disease that might otherwise be missed by SNP-chip technology. One potential challenge is misclassification error (as with any emerging technology) and the issue of power loss due to multiple testing. Here, we develop an extension of the linear trend test for association that incorporates differential misclassification error and may be applied to any number of SNPs. We call the statistic the linear trend test allowing for error, applied to NGS, or LTTae,NGS. This statistic allows for differential misclassification. The observed data are phenotypes for unrelated cases and controls, coverage, and the number of putative causal variants for every individual at all SNPs. We simulate data considering multiple factors (disease mode of inheritance, genotype relative risk, causal variant frequency, sequence error rate in cases, sequence error rate in controls, number of loci, and others) and evaluate type I error rate and power for each vector of factor settings. We compare our results with two recently published NGS statistics. Also, we create a fictitious disease model based on downloaded 1000 Genomes data for 5 SNPs and 388 individuals, and apply our statistic to those data. We find that the LTTae,NGS maintains the correct type I error rate in all simulations (differential and non-differential error), while the other statistics show large inflation in type I error for lower coverage. Power for all three methods is approximately the same for all three statistics in the presence of non-differential error. Application of our statistic to the 1000 Genomes data suggests that, for the data downloaded, there is a 1.5% sequence misclassification rate over all SNPs. Finally, application of the multi-variant form of LTTae,NGS shows high power for a number of simulation settings, although it can have lower power than the corresponding single-variant simulation results, most probably due to our specification of multi-variant SNP correlation values. In conclusion, our LTTae,NGS addresses two key challenges with NGS disease studies; first, it allows for differential misclassification when computing the statistic; and second, it addresses the multiple-testing issue in that there is a multi-variant form of the statistic that has only one degree of freedom, and provides a single p value, no matter how many loci. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Single variant and multi-variant trend tests for genetic association with next generation sequencing that are robust to sequencing error

PubMed Central

Kim, Wonkuk; Londono, Douglas; Zhou, Lisheng; Xing, Jinchuan; Nato, Andrew; Musolf, Anthony; Matise, Tara C.; Finch, Stephen J.; Gordon, Derek

2013-01-01

As with any new technology, next generation sequencing (NGS) has potential advantages and potential challenges. One advantage is the identification of multiple causal variants for disease that might otherwise be missed by SNP-chip technology. One potential challenge is misclassification error (as with any emerging technology) and the issue of power loss due to multiple testing. Here, we develop an extension of the linear trend test for association that incorporates differential misclassification error and may be applied to any number of SNPs. We call the statistic the linear trend test allowing for error, applied to NGS, or LTTae,NGS. This statistic allows for differential misclassification. The observed data are phenotypes for unrelated cases and controls, coverage, and the number of putative causal variants for every individual at all SNPs. We simulate data considering multiple factors (disease mode of inheritance, genotype relative risk, causal variant frequency, sequence error rate in cases, sequence error rate in controls, number of loci, and others) and evaluate type I error rate and power for each vector of factor settings. We compare our results with two recently published NGS statistics. Also, we create a fictitious disease model, based on downloaded 1000 Genomes data for 5 SNPs and 388 individuals, and apply our statistic to that data. We find that the LTTae,NGS maintains the correct type I error rate in all simulations (differential and non-differential error), while the other statistics show large inflation in type I error for lower coverage. Power for all three methods is approximately the same for all three statistics in the presence of non-differential error. Application of our statistic to the 1000 Genomes data suggests that, for the data downloaded, there is a 1.5% sequence misclassification rate over all SNPs. Finally, application of the multi-variant form of LTTae,NGS shows high power for a number of simulation settings, although it can have lower power than the corresponding single variant simulation results, most probably due to our specification of multi-variant SNP correlation values. In conclusion, our LTTae,NGS addresses two key challenges with NGS disease studies; first, it allows for differential misclassification when computing the statistic; and second, it addresses the multiple-testing issue in that there is a multi-variant form of the statistic that has only one degree of freedom, and provides a single p-value, no matter how many loci. PMID:23594495

Seasonality of climate change and oscillations in the Northeast Asia and Northwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, V.; Salomatin, A.; Kaplunenko, D.; Krokhin, V.

2003-04-01

The main goals of this study are to estimate and compare the seasonality of centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and dominated oscillations in surface air temperature and precipitation over continental and marginal areas of the Northeast Asia, as well as in the Northwest Pacific SST. We use monthly mean data for the 20th century from the NOAA Global History Climatic Network, JMA data base and WMU/COADS World Atlas of Surface Marine Data. Details of climate change/oscillations associated with cooling or warming in different areas and periods of a year are revealed. Wavelet analyses and two methods of the linear trend estimation are applied. First one is least-squares (LS) method with Fisher’s test for statistical significance level. Second one is nonparametric robust (NR) method, based on Theil's rank regression and Kendall's test for statistical significance level. The NR method should be applied to time series with abnormal distribution function typical for precipitation time series. Application of the NR method result in increase the statistical significance of both positive and negative linear trends in all cases of abnormal distribution with negative/positive skewness and low/high kurtosis. Using this method, we have determined spatial patterns of statistically significant climatic trends in surface air temperature, precipitation in the Northeast Asia, and in the Northwest Pacific SST. The most substantial centennial warming in the vast continental area of the mid-latitude band is found mainly for December March. The semi-centennial/ centennial cooling occurs in South Siberia and the subarctic mid-continental area in June September. Opposite tendencies were also revealed in precipitation and SST. Positive semi-centennial tendency in the SST in the second half of the 20th century predominates in the Kuroshio region and in the northwestern area of the subarctic gyre in winter. Negative tendency in the SST dominates in the southwestern subarctic gyre and the offshore area of the subtropic gyre in summer. Comparison of air temperature, precipitation, SST trends and oscillations in different seasons over land marginal and continental areas, as well as in the subarctic and subtropic zones indicates general features of the Northeast Asian Monsoon change/oscillation in 20th century and its second half. Similar features of seasonality in centennial, semi-centennial trends and dominated oscillations are manifested. Climate change and oscillation in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas revealed for the 20th century are explained.

Seasonality of climate change and oscillations in the Northeast Asia and Northwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, V.; Salomatin, A.; Kaplunenko, D.; Krokhin, V.

2003-04-01

The main goals of this study are to estimate and compare the centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and oscillations in surface air temperature and precipitation over continental and marginal areas of the Northeast Asian, as well as in the Northwest Pacific SST for all months of a year. We use monthly mean data for the 20th century from the NOAA Global History Climatic Network, JMA data base and WMU/COADS World Atlas of Surface Marine Data. Details of climate change/oscillations associated with cooling or warming in different areas and periods of a year are revealed. Wavelet analyses and two methods of the linear trend estimation are applied. First one is least-squares (LS) method with Fisher’s test for statistical significance level. Second one is nonparametric robust (NR) method, based on Theil's rank regression and Kendall's test for statistical significance level. The NR method should be applied to time series with abnormal distribution function typical for precipitation time series. Application of the NR method result in increase the statistical significance of both positive and negative linear trends in all cases of abnormal distribution with negative/positive skewness and low/high kurtosis. Using this method, we have determined spatial patterns of statistically significant climatic trends in surface air temperature, precipitation in the Northeast Asia, and in the Northwest Pacific SST. The most substantial centennial warming in the vast continental area of the mid-latitude band is found mainly for December March. The semi-centennial/ centennial cooling occurs in South Siberia and the subarctic mid-continental area in June September. Opposite tendencies were also revealed in precipitation and SST. Positive semi-centennial tendency in the SST in the second half of the 20th century predominates in the Kuroshio region and in the northwestern area of the subarctic gyre in winter. Negative tendency in the SST dominates in the southwestern subarctic gyre and the offshore area of the subtropic gyre in summer. Comparison of air temperature, precipitation, SST trends and oscillations in different seasons over land marginal and continental areas, as well as in the subarctic and subtropic zones indicates general features of the Northeast Asian Monsoon change/oscillation in 20th century and its second half. Similar features of seasonality in centennial, semi-centennial trends and dominated oscillations are manifested. Climate change and oscillation in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas revealed for the 20th century are explained.

Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

PubMed Central

von Ruesten, Anne; Steffen, Annika; Floegel, Anna; van der A, Daphne L.; Masala, Giovanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjaer, Jytte; Palli, Domenico; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.; Boeing, Heiner

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower. PMID:22102897

23 years of toxicology testing fatally injured pilots: Implications for aviation and other modes of transportation.

PubMed

McKay, Mary Pat; Groff, Loren

2016-05-01

Use of over-the-counter, prescription, and illicit drugs is increasing in the United States (US). Many of these drugs are psychoactive and can affect the user's ability to safely operate a vehicle. However, data about drug use by vehicle operators is typically limited to a small proportion of operators and a short list of drugs. For instance, required testing for commercial vehicle operators following most accidents is limited to a urine test for 11 drugs. By comparison, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), routinely tests fatally injured pilots' blood and tissues for hundreds of compounds. This study used the results from these tests to assess drug use in aviation. Using matched data from the FAA's Civil Aerospace Medical Institute toxicology database and the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB's) aviation accident database, this study examined trends in the prevalence of over-the-counter, prescription, and illicit drugs identified in toxicology tests of fatally injured pilots between 1990 and 2012. Cases that failed to match or where toxicology testing had not been performed were excluded. Pilots identified by the NTSB investigation as being the "flying pilot" at the time of the accident and results from blood or tissues were included. Toxicology results for ethanol and other alcohols were not included. Positive test results were categorized by drug type and potential for causing impairment. Analysis used SPSS Version 19.1 to perform linear by linear chi-squared statistics. The study included 6677 pilots or 87% of the eligible subjects. The large majority were male (98%) and flying general aviation operations (96%) at the time of their fatal accident. There were increasing trends in pilots' use of all drugs, potentially impairing drugs, drugs used to treat potentially impairing conditions, drugs designated as controlled substances, and illicit drugs. The most common potentially impairing drug pilots had used was diphenhydramine, a sedating antihistamine that is an active ingredient in many over-the-counter allergy formulations, cold medicines, and sleep aids in the US. Although evidence of illicit drug use was found only in a small number of cases, the percentage of pilots testing positive for marijuana use increased during the study period, mostly in the last 10 years. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers: international trends during 25 Years.

PubMed

Israelsson, Magnus; Gerdner, Arne

2012-01-01

The study explores international trends in law on compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers (CCC), and two subtypes - civil CCC and CCC within criminal justice legislation - as well as maximum length and amount of applications of such care. The time period covers more than 25 years, and a total of 104 countries and territories. The study is based on available data in three times of observation (1986, 1999 and 2009). Applications of CCC in number of cases are studied on European level for the years 2002-2006. Trends are analyzed using nonparametric tests and general linear models for repeated measures. Findings are discussed from contextual analysis. There is a trend towards decrease in the number of countries worldwide having civil CCC legislation after the millennium, while CCC under criminal law has increased since the mid-1980s, resulting in some total net decrease. The shift results in longer mean duration of CCC and an increase in the number of cases sentenced. There is a risk that the shift from civil CCC to penal CCC implies more focus on young out-acting males in compulsory treatment and that the societal responsibility for more vulnerable persons might be neglected. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berger, Carl F.

A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential…

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data

PubMed Central

Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E.; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. Methods We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. Results 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3-14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14-20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Conclusions Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. PMID:25458783

Evaluation of preventative and control measures for congenital syphilis in State of Mato Grosso.

PubMed

Oliveira, Leila Regina de; Costa, Maria da Conceição Nascimento; Barreto, Florisneide Rodrigues; Pereira, Susan Martins; Dourado, Inês; Teixeira, Maria Glória

2014-01-01

Congenital syphilis is an important health problem in Brazil. This study assessed measures aimed at the prevention and control of syphilis in the State of Mato Grosso and its capital, Cuiabá. A descriptive study cross-sectional and of time trends assessing the congenital syphilis was performed in Cuiabá and Mato Grosso between 2001 and 2011. We compared maternal sociodemographic characteristics and health care utilization related to cases of congenital syphilis during the periods from 2001 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2011. We assessed the temporal trends in this disease's incidence using a simple linear regression. Between 2001 and 2006 in Mato Grosso, 86.8% of the mothers who had live births with congenital syphilis received prenatal care, 90.6% presented with a nontreponemal test reagent at delivery, 96.2% had no information regarding a treponemal confirmatory test at delivery, and 77.6% received inadequate treatment for syphilis; additionally, 75.8% of their partners were not treated. There was a statistically significant reduction in prenatal visits (p = 0.004) and an increase in the proportion of mothers reactive to nontreponemal tests at delivery (p = 0.031) between the two periods. No other variables were found to differ significantly between the periods. In Cuiabá, we observed a similar distribution of variables. In the state and in the capital, the increasing trend of congenital syphilis was not statistically significant. The high incidence of congenital syphilis in Mato Grosso and the low levels of health care indicators for pregnant women with syphilis suggest the need to improve the coverage and quality of prenatal care.

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is therefore better to use the NCEP-CFSR dataset than the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets when discussing trends in the SAH.

Local density measurement of additive manufactured copper parts by instrumented indentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, Loredana; Quadrini, Fabrizio; Bellisario, Denise; Tedde, Giovanni Matteo; Zarcone, Mariano; Di Domenico, Gildo; D'Angelo, Pierpaolo; Corona, Diego

2018-05-01

Instrumented flat indentation has been used to evaluate local density of additive manufactured (AM) copper samples with different relative density. Indentations were made by using tungsten carbide (WC) flat pins with 1 mm diameter. Pure copper powders were used in a selective laser melting (SLM) machine to produce samples to test. By changing process parameters, samples density was changed from the relative density of 63% to 71%. Indentation tests were performed on the xy surface of the AM samples. In order to make a correlation between indentation test results and sample density, the indentation pressure at fixed displacement was selected. Results show that instrumented indentation is a valid technique to measure density distribution along the geometry of an SLM part. In fact, a linear trend between indentation pressure and sample density was found for the selected density range.

A micromechanics model for bread dough

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohammed, M. A. P; Tarleton, E.; Charalambides, M. N.

The mechanical behaviour of dough and gluten was studied in an effort to investigate whether bread dough can be treated as a two phase (starch and gluten) composite material. The dough and gluten show rate dependent behaviour under tension, compression and shear tests, and non-linear unloading-reloading curves under cyclic compression tests. There is evidence from cryo-Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) that damage in the form of debonding between starch and gluten occurs when the sample is stretched. A composite finite element model was developed using starch as filler and gluten as matrix. The interaction between the starch and gluten was modelledmore » as cohesive contact. The finite element analysis predictions agree with trends seen in experimental test data on dough and gluten, further evidence that debonding of starch and gluten is a possible damage mechanism in dough.« less

A micromechanics model for bread dough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, M. A. P.; Tarleton, E.; Charalambides, M. N.; Williams, J. G.

2015-01-01

The mechanical behaviour of dough and gluten was studied in an effort to investigate whether bread dough can be treated as a two phase (starch and gluten) composite material. The dough and gluten show rate dependent behaviour under tension, compression and shear tests, and non-linear unloading-reloading curves under cyclic compression tests. There is evidence from cryo-Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) that damage in the form of debonding between starch and gluten occurs when the sample is stretched. A composite finite element model was developed using starch as filler and gluten as matrix. The interaction between the starch and gluten was modelled as cohesive contact. The finite element analysis predictions agree with trends seen in experimental test data on dough and gluten, further evidence that debonding of starch and gluten is a possible damage mechanism in dough.

Coffee Consumption Is Positively Associated with Longer Leukocyte Telomere Length in the Nurses’ Health Study12

PubMed Central

Liu, Jason J; Crous-Bou, Marta; Giovannucci, Edward; De Vivo, Immaculata

2016-01-01

Background: Coffee is an important source of antioxidants, and consumption of this beverage is associated with many health conditions and a lower mortality risk. However, no study, to our knowledge, has examined whether varying coffee or caffeine consumption levels are associated with telomere length, a biomarker of aging whose shortening can be accelerated by oxidative stress. Objective: We performed a large comprehensive study on how coffee consumption is associated with telomere length. Methods: We used data from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), a prospective cohort study of female nurses that began in 1976. We examined the cross-sectional association between coffee consumption and telomere length in 4780 women from the NHS. Coffee consumption information was obtained from validated food-frequency questionnaires, and relative telomere length was measured in peripheral blood leukocytes by the quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Unconditional logistic regression was used to obtain ORs when the telomere length outcome was dichotomized at the median. Linear regression was used for tests of trend with coffee consumption and telomere length as continuous variables. Results: Higher total coffee consumption was significantly associated with longer telomeres after potential confounding adjustment. Compared with non-coffee drinkers, multivariable ORs for those drinking 2 to <3 and ≥3 cups of coffee/d were, respectively, 1.29 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.68) and 1.36 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.78) (P-trend = 0.02). We found a significant linear association between caffeine consumption from all dietary sources and telomere length (P-trend = 0.02) after adjusting for potential confounders, but not after additionally adjusting for total coffee consumption (P-trend = 0.37). Conclusions: We found that higher coffee consumption is associated with longer telomeres among female nurses. Future studies are needed to better understand the influence of coffee consumption on telomeres, which may uncover new knowledge of how coffee consumption affects health and longevity. PMID:27281805

Identification of geostructures of continental crust, particularly as they relate to mineral-resource evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gryc, G. (Principal Investigator); Lathram, E. H.

1972-01-01

The authors have identified the following significant results. As a precursor to the ERTS-1 investigation, the spatial relationship of geostructures seen on Nimbus IDCS photographs to the distribution of mineralized areas in Alaska and western Canada was analyzed to determine the possible metallogenic significance of the geostructures. In Canada, mercury and porphyry molybdenum deposits are closely associated with strong northwest-trending fault systems; the development of mineralized regions seems related to major crustal zones or fractures trending southwestward across the Cordillera from the Precambrian shield. In Alaska, comparison of the northeast- and northwest-trending set of possible crustal structures shown on the Nimbus photo, with the distribution of known mineral deposits suggests a similar relationship. The mineralized region of massive sulfides in Prince William Sound and upper Copper River areas and of porphyry coppers in the Nabesna area forms a broad northeast-trending belt possibly related to the Minto Arch on the Shield. The belt of metalliferous deposits in the western Alaska Range follows a comparable northeast trend. Mercury deposits, suggested by many to be fault-controlled, together with most tin and tungsten deposits, occupy a northeast-trending belt between the Bristol Bay-Mackenzie Bay linear and extensions of a linear along the lower Yukon River. This belt intersects the northwest-trending Canadian belt of similar deposits in the Fairbanks area.

Cognitive fatigue in patients with myasthenia gravis.

PubMed

Jordan, Berit; Schweden, Tabea L K; Mehl, Theresa; Menge, Uwe; Zierz, Stephan

2017-09-01

Cognitive fatigue has frequently been reported in myasthenia gravis (MG). However, objective assessment of cognitive fatigability has never been evaluated. Thirty-three MG patients with stable generalized disease and 17 healthy controls underwent a test battery including repeated testing of attention and concentration (d2-R) and Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test. Fatigability was based on calculation of linear trend (LT) reflecting dynamic performance within subsequent constant time intervals. Additionally, fatigue questionnaires were used. MG patients showed a negative LT in second d2-R testing, indicating cognitive fatigability. This finding significantly differed from stable cognitive performance in controls (P < 0.05). Results of Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test testing did not differ between groups. Self-assessed fatigue was significantly higher in MG patients compared with controls (P < 0.001), but did not correlate with LT. LT quantifies cognitive fatigability as an objective measurement of performance decline in MG patients. Self-assessed cognitive fatigue is not correlated with objective findings. Muscle Nerve 56: 449-457, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Variation in the modal parameters of space structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawley, Edward F.; Barlow, Mark S.; Van Schoor, Marthinus C.; Bicos, Andrew S.

1992-01-01

An analytic and experimental study of gravity and suspension influences on space structural test articles is presented. A modular test article including deployable, erectable, and rotary modules was assembled in three one- and two-dimensional structures. The two deployable modules utilized cable diagonal bracing rather than rigid cross members; within a bay of one of the deployable modules, the cable preload was adjustable. A friction lock was used on the alpha joint to either allow or prohibit rotary motion. Suspension systems with plunge fundamentals of 1, 2, and 5 Hz were used for ground testing to evaluate the influences of suspension stiffness. Assembly and reassembly testing was performed, as was testing on two separate shipsets at two test sites. Trends and statistical variances in modal parameters are presented as a function of force amplitude, joint preload, reassembly, shipset and suspension. Linear finite element modeling of each structure provided analytical results for 0-g unsuspended and 1-g suspended models, which are correlated with the analytical model.

Fluorescence-based monitoring of tracer and substrate distribution in an UASB reactor.

PubMed

Lou, S J; Tartakovsky, B; Zeng, Y; Wu, P; Guiot, S R

2006-11-01

In this work, rhodamine-related fluorescence was measured on-line at four reactor heights in order to study hydrodynamics within an upflow anaerobic sludge bed reactor. A linear dependence of the dispersion coefficient (D) on the upflow velocity was observed, while the influence of the organic loading rate (OLR) was insignificant. Furthermore, the Bodenstein number of the reactor loaded with granulated sludge was found to be position-dependent with the largest values measured at the bottom of the sludge bed. This trend was not observed in the reactor without sludge. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentrations were measured at the same reactor heights as in rhodamine tests using conventional off-line analytical methods and on-line multiwavelength fluorometry. Significant spatial COD and VFA gradients were observed at organic loading rates above 6g COD l(R)(-1)d(-1) and linear upflow velocities below 0.8m h(-1).

Linear conduction in N-type organic field effect transistors with nanometric channel lengths and graphene as electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chianese, F.; Candini, A.; Affronte, M.; Mishra, N.; Coletti, C.; Cassinese, A.

2018-05-01

In this work, we test graphene electrodes in nanometric channel n-type Organic Field Effect Transistors (OFETs) based on thermally evaporated thin films of the perylene-3,4,9,10-tetracarboxylic acid diimide derivative. By a thorough comparison with short channel transistors made with reference gold electrodes, we found that the output characteristics of the graphene-based devices respond linearly to the applied bias, in contrast with the supralinear trend of gold-based transistors. Moreover, short channel effects are considerably suppressed in graphene electrode devices. More specifically, current on/off ratios independent of the channel length (L) and enhanced response for high longitudinal biases are demonstrated for L down to ˜140 nm. These results are rationalized taking into account the morphological and electronic characteristics of graphene, showing that the use of graphene electrodes may help to overcome the problem of Space Charge Limited Current in short channel OFETs.

Impact of depressive symptoms, self-esteem and neuroticism on trajectories of overgeneral autobiographical memory over repeated trials.

PubMed

Kashdan, Todd B; Roberts, John E; Carlos, Erica L

2006-04-01

The present study examined trajectories of change in the frequency of overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) over the course of repeated trials, and tested whether particular dimensions of depressive symptomatology (somatic and cognitive-affective distress), self-esteem, and neuroticism account for individual differences in these trajectories. Given that depression is associated with impairments in effortful processing, we predicted that over repeated trials depression would be associated with increasingly OGM. Generalised Linear Mixed Models with Penalised Quasi-Likelihood demonstrated significant linear and quadratic trends in OGM over repeated trials, and somatic distress and self-esteem moderated these slopes. The form of these interactions suggested that somatic distress and low self-esteem primarily contribute to OGM during the second half of the trial sequence. The present findings demonstrate the value of a novel analytical approach to OGM that estimates individual trajectories of change over repeated trials.

Resolving Mixed Algal Species in Hyperspectral Images

PubMed Central

Mehrubeoglu, Mehrube; Teng, Ming Y.; Zimba, Paul V.

2014-01-01

We investigated a lab-based hyperspectral imaging system's response from pure (single) and mixed (two) algal cultures containing known algae types and volumetric combinations to characterize the system's performance. The spectral response to volumetric changes in single and combinations of algal mixtures with known ratios were tested. Constrained linear spectral unmixing was applied to extract the algal content of the mixtures based on abundances that produced the lowest root mean square error. Percent prediction error was computed as the difference between actual percent volumetric content and abundances at minimum RMS error. Best prediction errors were computed as 0.4%, 0.4% and 6.3% for the mixed spectra from three independent experiments. The worst prediction errors were found as 5.6%, 5.4% and 13.4% for the same order of experiments. Additionally, Beer-Lambert's law was utilized to relate transmittance to different volumes of pure algal suspensions demonstrating linear logarithmic trends for optical property measurements. PMID:24451451

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormick, M. P.; Veiga, Robert E.; Chu, William P.

1992-01-01

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.

Detecting trends in academic research from a citation network using network representation learning

PubMed Central

Mori, Junichiro; Ochi, Masanao; Sakata, Ichiro

2018-01-01

Several network features and information retrieval methods have been proposed to elucidate the structure of citation networks and to detect important nodes. However, it is difficult to retrieve information related to trends in an academic field and to detect cutting-edge areas from the citation network. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that detects the trend as the growth direction of a citation network using network representation learning(NRL). We presume that the linear growth of citation network in latent space obtained by NRL is the result of the iterative edge additional process of a citation network. On APS datasets and papers of some domains of the Web of Science, we confirm the existence of trends by observing that an academic field grows in a specific direction linearly in latent space. Next, we calculate each node’s degree of trend-following as an indicator called the intrinsic publication year (IPY). As a result, there is a correlation between the indicator and the number of future citations. Furthermore, a word frequently used in the abstracts of cutting-edge papers (high-IPY paper) is likely to be used often in future publications. These results confirm the validity of the detected trend for predicting citation network growth. PMID:29782521

The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

PubMed Central

Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520

The trend odds model for ordinal data.

PubMed

Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

2013-06-15

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Health Disparities Grants Funded by National Institute on Aging: Trends Between 2000 and 2010

PubMed Central

Kim, Giyeon; DeCoster, Jamie; Huang, Chao-Hui; Parmelee, Patricia

2012-01-01

Purpose of the Study: The present study examined the characteristics of health disparities grants funded by National Institute on Aging (NIA) from 2000 to 2010. Objectives were (a) to examine longitudinal trends in health disparities–related grants funded by NIA and (b) to identify moderators of these trends. Design and Methods: Our primary data source was the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools Expenditures and Results (RePORTER) system. The RePORTER data were merged with data from the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education. General linear models were used to examine the longitudinal trends and how these trends were associated with type of grant and institutional characteristics. Results: NIA funded 825 grants on health disparities between 2000 and 2010, expending approximately 330 million dollars. There was an overall linear increase over time in both the total number of grants and amount of funding, with an outlying spike during 2009. These trends were significantly influenced by several moderators including funding mechanism and type of institution. Implications: The findings highlight NIA’s current efforts to fund health disparities grants to reduce disparities among older adults. Gerontology researchers may find this information very useful for their future grant submissions. PMID:22454392

A reassessment of the Archean-Mesoproterozoic tectonic development of the southeastern Chhattisgarh Basin, Central India through detailed aeromagnetic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridhar, M.; Ramesh Babu, V.; Markandeyulu, A.; Raju, B. V. S. N.; Chaturvedi, A. K.; Roy, M. K.

2017-08-01

We constrained the geological framework over polydeformed Paleoproterozoic Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and addressed the tectonic evolution of Singhora basin in the fringes of Bastar Craton, central India by utilizing aeromagnetic data interpretation, 2.5D forward modelling and 3D magnetic susceptibility inversions. The Sonakhan Greenstone Belt exposes volcano-sedimentary sequences of the Sonakhan Group within NNW-SSE to NW-SE trending linear belts surrounded by granite gneisses, which are unconformably overlain by sedimentary rocks of Chhattisgarh Basin. The orientations of aeromagnetic anomalies are coincident with geological trends and appear to correlate with lithology and geologic structure. Regional magnetic anomalies and lineaments reveal both NNW-SSE and NE-SW trends. Prominent E-W trending linear, high amplitude magnetic anomalies are interpreted as the Trans-Chhattisgarh Aeromagnetic Lineament (TCAL). NW-SE trending aeromagnetic signatures related to Sonakhan Greenstone Belt extends below the Singhora sedimentary rocks and forms the basement in the west. The analysis suggests that TCAL is a block fault with northern block down-thrown and affected the basement rocks comprising the Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and Samblapur Granitoids. The episode of faulting represented by the TCAL is pre-Singhora sedimentation and played a vital role in basin evolution. The basement configuration image generated by estimates of depth to magnetic basement suggests a complex pattern of NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending depressions separated by a linear N-S trending basement ridge. It is inferred from the 3D magnetic susceptibility inversion that the thickness of sediments is more towards the eastern basin margin and the N-S ridge is a manifestation of post sedimentary faulting. Results of 2.5D modelling of a WNW-ESE profile across the Singhora Basin combined with results from 3D inversion suggest suggests the basin subsidence was controlled by NE-SW trending regional faults in an active system. The basin geometry evolved by E-W block faulting overprinted by NE-SW trending pre- to syn-depositional normal faults generating NE-SW depression, which are affected by N-S trend post-sedimentary faulting. Though the present work relates the basin evolution with the initiation of rift basin, it warrants further work to establish the deformation within the basin pertaining to the proximal thrust and uplift along the craton fringe.

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

PubMed

Condon, Robert H; Duarte, Carlos M; Pitt, Kylie A; Robinson, Kelly L; Lucas, Cathy H; Sutherland, Kelly R; Mianzan, Hermes W; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P; Brodeur, Richard D; Haddock, Steven H D; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M; Graham, William M

2013-01-15

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

Long-term variations of SST and heat content in the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huonsou-gbo, Aubains; Servain, Jacques; Caniaux, Guy; Araujo, Moacyr; Bourlès, Bernard; Veleda, Doris

2015-04-01

Recent studies (eg. Wen et al. 2010; Servain et al. 2014) suggest that subsurface processes influence the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic through the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) with time lags of several months. In this study, we used observed SST and Ocean heat content to test such hypothesis during the period 1964-2013. First results indicate great similarities in the positive linear trends of monthly standardized anomalies of SST, upper ocean heat content (0-500m) and deeper ocean heat content (500-2000m) averaged over the whole Atlantic Ocean. Strong positive trends of SST and deeper heat content occurred in the equatorial Atlantic, while a strong positive trend of the upper heat content was observed in the northeast Atlantic. These positive trends were the highest during the last two decades. The lagged positive correlation patterns between upper heat content anomalies over the whole gridded Atlantic Ocean and SST anomalies averaged over the equatorial region (60°W-15°E; 10°N-10°S) show a slow temporal evolution, which is roughly in agreement with the upper MOC. More detailed works about the mechanism, as well as about the origin of the highest positive trend of the deeper heat content in the equatorial region, are presently under investigation. References Servain J., G. Caniaux, Y. K. Kouadio, M. J. McPhaden, M. Araujo (2014). Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, 3071-3089, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2168-7.

Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2009-01-01

Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

Albumin, bilirubin, uric acid and cancer risk: results from a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Graf, Mirja E; Schübel, Ruth; Freisling, Heinz; Johnson, Theron; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-11-07

It has long been proposed that albumin, bilirubin and uric acid may inhibit cancer development due to their anti-oxidative properties. However, there is a lack of population-based studies on blood levels of these molecules and cancer risk. Associations between pre-diagnostic serum albumin, bilirubin and uric acid and the risks of common cancers as well as cancer death in the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. A case-cohort sample including a random subcohort (n=2739) and all incident cases of breast (n=627), prostate (n=554), colorectal (n=256), and lung cancer (n=195) as well as cancer death (n=761) that occurred between baseline (1994-1998) and 2009 was used. Albumin levels were inversely associated with breast cancer risk (hazard ratio Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1 (95% CI): 0.71 (0.51, 0.99), P linear trend =0.004) and overall cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.64 (0.48, 0.86), P linear trend <0.001) after multivariable adjustment. Uric acid levels were also inversely associated with breast cancer risk (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.72 (0.53, 0.99), P linear trend =0.043) and cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.75 (0.58, 0.98), P linear trend =0.09). There were no significant associations between albumin or uric acid and prostate, lung and colorectal cancer. Serum bilirubin was not associated with any cancer end point. The present findings indicate that higher levels of albumin and uric acid are related to lower risks of breast cancer and cancer mortality. Further studies are needed to assess whether the observed associations are causal.

Fourier functional analysis for unsteady aerodynamic modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lan, C. Edward; Chin, Suei

1991-01-01

A method based on Fourier analysis is developed to analyze the force and moment data obtained in large amplitude forced oscillation tests at high angles of attack. The aerodynamic models for normal force, lift, drag, and pitching moment coefficients are built up from a set of aerodynamic responses to harmonic motions at different frequencies. Based on the aerodynamic models of harmonic data, the indicial responses are formed. The final expressions for the models involve time integrals of the indicial type advocated by Tobak and Schiff. Results from linear two- and three-dimensional unsteady aerodynamic theories as well as test data for a 70-degree delta wing are used to verify the models. It is shown that the present modeling method is accurate in producing the aerodynamic responses to harmonic motions and the ramp type motions. The model also produces correct trend for a 70-degree delta wing in harmonic motion with different mean angles-of-attack. However, the current model cannot be used to extrapolate data to higher angles-of-attack than that of the harmonic motions which form the aerodynamic model. For linear ramp motions, a special method is used to calculate the corresponding frequency and phase angle at a given time. The calculated results from modeling show a higher lift peak for linear ramp motion than for harmonic ramp motion. The current model also shows reasonably good results for the lift responses at different angles of attack.

Cohort differences in Big Five personality factors over a period of 25 years.

PubMed

Smits, Iris A M; Dolan, Conor V; Vorst, Harrie C M; Wicherts, Jelte M; Timmerman, Marieke E

2011-06-01

The notion of personality traits implies a certain degree of stability in the life span of an individual. But what about generational effects? Are there generational changes in the distribution or structure of personality traits? This article examines cohort changes on the Big Five personality factors Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness to Experience, among first-year psychology students in The Netherlands, ages 18 to 25 years, between 1982 and 2007. Because measurement invariance of a personality test is essential for a sound interpretation of cohort differences in personality, we first assessed measurement invariance with respect to cohort for males and females separately on the Big Five personality factors, as measured by the Dutch instrument Five Personality Factors Test. Results identified 11 (females) and 2 (males) biased items with respect to cohort, out of a total of 70 items. Analyzing the unbiased items, results indicated small linear increases over time in Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness and small linear decreases over time in Neuroticism. No clear patterns were found on the Openness to Experience factor. Secondary analyses on students from 1971 to 2007 of females and males of different ages together revealed linear trends comparable to those in the main analyses among young adults between 1982 onward. The results imply that the broad sociocultural context may affect personality factors. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Landsat analysis for uranium exploration in Northeast Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Keenan

1983-01-01

No uranium deposits are known in the Trabzon, Turkey region, and consequently, exploration criteria have not been defined. Nonetheless, by analogy with uranium deposits studied elsewhere, exploration guides are suggested to include dense concentrations of linear features, lineaments -- especially with northwest trend, acidic plutonic rocks, and alteration indicated by limonite. A suite of digitally processed images of a single Landsat scene served as the image base for mapping 3,376 linear features. Analysis of the linear feature data yielded two statistically significant trends, which in turn defined two sets of strong lineaments. Color composite images were used to map acidic plutonic rocks and areas of surficial limonitic materials. The Landsat interpretation yielded a map of these exploration guides that may be used to evaluate relative uranium potential. One area in particular shows a high coincidence of favorable indicators.

Chocolate consumption and risk of heart failure in the Physicians’ Health Study

PubMed Central

Petrone, Andrew B; Gaziano, J. Michael; Djoussé, Luc

2015-01-01

Aims To test the hypothesis that chocolate consumption is associated with a lower risk of heart failure (HF). Methods and Results We prospectively studied 20,278 men from the Physicians’ Health Study. Chocolate consumption was assessed between 1999 and 2002 via a self-administered food frequency questionnaire and HF was ascertained through annual follow-up questionnaires with validation in a subsample. We used Cox regression to estimate multivariable adjusted relative risk of HF. During a mean follow-up of 9.3 years, there were 876 new cases of HF. The mean age at baseline was 66.4 ± 9.2 years. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for HF were 1.0 (ref), 0.86 (0.72–1.03), 0.80 (0.66–0.98), 0.92 (0.74–1.13), and 0.82 (0.63–1.07), for chocolate consumption of less than 1/month, 1–3/week, 2–4/week, and 5+/week, respectively, after adjusting for age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol, exercise, energy intake, and history of atrial fibrillation (p for quadratic trend = 0.62). In a secondary analysis, chocolate consumption was inversely associated with risk of HF in men whose BMI was <25 kg/m2 (HR (95% CI) = 0.59 (0.37–0.94) for consumption of 5+ servings/week, p for linear trend = 0.03) but not in those with BMI of 25+ kg/m2 (HR (95% CI) = 1.01 (0.73–1.39), p for linear trend = 0.42, p for interaction=0.17). Conclusions Our data suggest that moderate consumption of chocolate might be associated with a lower risk of HF in male physicians.. PMID:25311633

Establishing Normative Reference Values for Standing Broad Jump Among Hungarian Youth.

PubMed

Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Laurson, Kelly R; Kaj, Mónika; Csányi, Tamás

2015-06-26

The purpose of this study was to examine age and sex trends in anaerobic power assessed by a standing broad jump and to determine norm-referenced values for youth in Hungary. A sample of 2,427 Hungarian youth (1,360 boys and 1,067 girls) completed the standing broad jump twice, and the highest distance score was recorded. Quantile regression was used to fit standing broad jump trends across linear and quadratic functions of age. Statistical significance was determined with bootstrap confidence intervals and the Wald test with p < .05. Age-by-sex specific centiles were generated and the 50th percentile was used to describe the overall patterns. Standing broad jump scores increased steadily in boys from age 11 through 18 years with a discrete plateau at the end of adolescence. Girls' standing broad jump scores of those who performed above the median increased with age and plateaued later in the adolescence. Both linear and quadratic age terms were statistically significant predictors of standing broad jump trends across age (p < .05), but the relations varied depending on the percentile. The 50th percentile values resulted in 147.0 cm, 162.0 cm, 175.0 cm, 186.0 cm, 195.0 cm, 202.0 cm, 207.0 cm, and 210.0 cm for boys aged 11 to 18 years old, respectively, and 140.0 cm, 143.9 cm, 147.3 cm, 150.0 cm, 152.1 cm, 153.7 cm, 154.6 cm, and 155.0 cm for girls aged 11 to 18 years old, respectively. This study provides normative reference charts that take into account age and sex differences in standing broad jump performance. The proposed reference values can be used to interpret standing broad jump scores in Hungarian youth.

[Clinical research XVII. χ(2) test, from the expected to the observed].

PubMed

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez, Marcela; Talavera, Juan O

2013-01-01

When you want to show if there is a statistical association or differences between categorical variables, it is recommended to use the χ(2) test. This nonparametric test is one of the most used in clinical research; it contrasts nominal or ordinal qualitative variables that are observed in clinical practice. This test calculates the p value that determines whether differences between groups are real or due to chance. The χ(2) test is the basis of other tests to analyze qualitative ordinal variables as χ(2) for linear trend, which compares three groups with two outcomes or McNemar test, which contrasts two related samples (a before and afterward comparison) or Mantel-Haenszel χ(2), which controls for potential confounding variables. When using small samples, where the expected results are less than 5, Fisher's exact test should be used. These tests are the most widely used in the medical literature; however, they do not give us the magnitude or the direction of the event and a proper interpretation that requires clinical judgment is needed.

A comparison of trends in operative approach and postoperative outcomes for colorectal cancer surgery.

PubMed

Addae, Jamin K; Gani, Faiz; Fang, Sandy Y; Wick, Elizabeth C; Althumairi, Azah A; Efron, Jonathan E; Canner, Joseph K; Euhus, David M; Schneider, Eric B

2017-02-01

Data-assessing trends and perioperative outcomes relative to surgical approach for colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery are lacking. We report national trends of CRC surgery and compare postoperative outcomes by surgical approach. A total of 261,886 patients undergoing surgery for CRC were identified using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2009 to 2012. Trends in surgical approach were assessed using the Cochrane-Armitage test of trends. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were performed to compare length of stay (LOS), postoperative complications, and cost by surgical approach. At the time of surgery, 57.5% underwent an open procedure, whereas 42.4% underwent either a laparoscopic (39.9%) or robotic (2.5%) colorectal surgery. The use of minimally invasive surgery increased over time (2009 versus 2012: 37.3% versus 46.8%; P < 0.001). Postoperative morbidity was 15.9% and was higher after open surgery (open versus laparoscopic versus robotic: 18.4% versus 12.4% versus 13.3%; P < 0.001). Patients who underwent a minimally invasive surgery had shorter LOS (laparoscopic: OR, 0.55, 95% CI, 0.52-0.58; robotic: OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.49-0.69; both P < 0.001). Robotic surgery was consistently associated with the highest mean costs followed by laparoscopic and open surgery (P < 0.001). Patients undergoing minimally invasive colorectal surgery had a lower postoperative morbidity and shorter LOS compared with patients undergoing open colorectal surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of HSV-2 on population-level trends in HIV incidence in Uganda between 1990 and 2007

PubMed Central

Biraro, Samuel; Kamali, Anatoli; White, Richard; Karabarinde, Alex; Nsiimire Ssendagala, Juliet; Grosskurth, Heiner; Weiss, Helen A

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the long-term effects of population-level HSV-2 infection on HIV incidence. Methods Data from a population-based cohort in south-western Uganda were used to estimate HIV incidence from 1990 to 2007. Stored blood samples were tested for HSV-2, and the impact of HSV-2 prevalence and incidence on HIV incidence was estimated by calculating population attributable fractions (PAFs). The association between population-level annual HIV incidence and annual HSV-2 incidence/prevalence was analysed using linear regression. Results HIV incidence declined over time among men, from 8.72/1000 person-years (pyr) in 1990 to 4.85/1000 pyr in 2007 (P-trend <0.001). In contrast, there was no decline in HIV incidence among women (4.86/1000 pyr in 1990 to 6.74/1000 pyr in 2007, P-trend = 0.18). PAFs of incident HIV attributable to HSV-2 were high (60% in males; 70% in females). There was no evidence of an association between long-term trends in HIV incidence and HSV-2 prevalence or incidence. Conclusion Assuming a causal relationship, a substantial proportion of new HIV infections in this population are attributable to HSV-2. The study did not find an effect of HSV-2 prevalence/incidence on trends in HIV incidence. HIV incidence did not vary much during the study period. This may partly explain the lack of association. PMID:24016032

Research on the novel FBG detection system for temperature and strain field distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhi-chao; Yang, Jin-hua

2017-10-01

In order to collect the information of temperature and strain field distribution information, the novel FBG detection system was designed. The system applied linear chirped FBG structure for large bandwidth. The structure of novel FBG cover was designed as a linear change in thickness, in order to have a different response at different locations. It can obtain the temperature and strain field distribution information by reflection spectrum simultaneously. The structure of novel FBG cover was designed, and its theoretical function is calculated. Its solution is derived for strain field distribution. By simulation analysis the change trend of temperature and strain field distribution were analyzed in the conditions of different strain strength and action position, the strain field distribution can be resolved. The FOB100 series equipment was used to test the temperature in experiment, and The JSM-A10 series equipment was used to test the strain field distribution in experiment. The average error of experimental results was better than 1.1% for temperature, and the average error of experimental results was better than 1.3% for strain. There were individual errors when the strain was small in test data. It is feasibility by theoretical analysis, simulation calculation and experiment, and it is very suitable for application practice.

Resolving Sensory Conflict: the Effect of Muscle Vibration on Postural Stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Layne, Charles S.

1991-01-01

The otolith-tilt reinterpretation hypothesis (OTTR) proposes that the central nervous system adapts to weightlessness by reinterpreting all otolith input as linear motion. While interpreting otolith input exclusively as linear motion is functionally useful in space, it is maladaptive upon return to Earth. Astronauts have reported experiencing illusory sensations during head movement which contributes to postural instability. The effect is assessed of muscle vibration in combination with a variety of sensory conflicts on postural equilibrium. The equilibrium of six healthy subjects was tested using the EquiTest sensory test protocol, with and without the confounding influence of triceps surea vibration. The data were analyzed with repeated measures with vibration, vision status, and platform status as independent variables. All main effects and an interaction between the presence of vision and platform sway referencing were found to be significant. Overall, a 4.5 pct. decrease in postural stability was observed with vibration. The trend of the difference scores between conditions with and without vibration suggests that vibration is most destabilizing when the triceps surea is able to change length during postural sway (i.e., conditions with a fixed support surface). The impact of sway referencing vision was virtually identical to that of eye closure, providing compelling evidence that sway referencing 'nulls out' useful cues about subject sway.

Emotional exhaustion and cognitive performance in apparently healthy teachers: a longitudinal multi-source study.

PubMed

Feuerhahn, Nicolas; Stamov-Roßnagel, Christian; Wolfram, Maren; Bellingrath, Silja; Kudielka, Brigitte M

2013-10-01

We investigate how emotional exhaustion (EE), the core component of burnout, relates to cognitive performance, job performance and health. Cognitive performance was assessed by self-rated cognitive stress symptoms, self-rated and peer-rated cognitive impairments in everyday tasks and a neuropsychological test of learning and memory (LGT-3); job performance and physical health were gauged by self-reports. Cross-sectional linear regression analyses in a sample of 100 teachers confirm that EE is negatively related to cognitive performance as assessed by self-rating and peer-rating as well as neuropsychological testing (all p < .05). Longitudinal linear regression analyses confirm similar trends (p < .10) for self-rated and peer-rated cognitive performance. Executive control deficits might explain impaired cognitive performance in EE. In longitudinal analyses, EE also significantly predicts physical health. Contrary to our expectations, EE does not affect job performance. When reversed causation is tested, none of the outcome variables at Time 1 predict EE at Time 2. This speaks against cognitive dysfunctioning serving as a vulnerability factor for exhaustion. In sum, results underpin the negative consequences of EE for cognitive performance and health, which are relevant for individuals and organizations alike. In this way, findings might contribute to the understanding of the burnout syndrome. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Statistical Test for Identifying the Number of Creep Regimes When Using the Wilshire Equations for Creep Property Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Mark

2016-12-01

A new parametric approach, termed the Wilshire equations, offers the realistic potential of being able to accurately lift materials operating at in-service conditions from accelerated test results lasting no more than 5000 hours. The success of this approach can be attributed to a well-defined linear relationship that appears to exist between various creep properties and a log transformation of the normalized stress. However, these linear trends are subject to discontinuities, the number of which appears to differ from material to material. These discontinuities have until now been (1) treated as abrupt in nature and (2) identified by eye from an inspection of simple graphical plots of the data. This article puts forward a statistical test for determining the correct number of discontinuities present within a creep data set and a method for allowing these discontinuities to occur more gradually, so that the methodology is more in line with the accepted view as to how creep mechanisms evolve with changing test conditions. These two developments are fully illustrated using creep data sets on two steel alloys. When these new procedures are applied to these steel alloys, not only do they produce more accurate and realistic looking long-term predictions of the minimum creep rate, but they also lead to different conclusions about the mechanisms determining the rates of creep from those originally put forward by Wilshire.

Effect of density gradients in confined supersonic shear layers, part 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peroomian, Oshin; Kelly, R. E.

1994-11-01

The effect of density gradients on the supersonic wall modes (acoustic modes) of a 2-D confined compressible shear layer were investigated using linear analysis. Due to the inadequacies of the hyperbolic tangent profile, the boundary layer basic profiles were used. First a test case was taken with the same parameters as in Tam and Hu's analysis with convective Mach number M(sub c) = 1.836 and density ratio of 1.398. Three generalized inflection points were found giving rise to three modes. The first two show similar properties to the Class A and B modes, and the third is an 'inner mode' which will be called a Class C mode. As the density ratio is increased, the smallest of the three neutral phase speeds tends towards the speed of the lower velocity stream, and the other two eventually coalesce and then disappear. These two effects lead to a linear resonance between the Class B modes which increases the cutoff frequency and growth rate of the lowest mode. In fact, growth rates of 2-4 times the test case were found as the density ratio was increased to 7. A similar trend is observed for the Class A modes when the density ratio is decreased from the test case, but the growth rate is not changed by much from the test case.

Exploring spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-10-01

This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial - regional and provincial/NUTS3 - levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974-2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures - Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) - at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs - mainly Sen's slope values - to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann-Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

PubMed

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Association between Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Control in Peruvian School Children: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Uceda, Mónica; Ziegler, Otto; Lindo, Felipe; Herrera-Pérez, Eder

2013-01-01

Background. Asthma and allergic rhinitis are highly prevalent conditions that cause major illness worldwide. This study aimed to assess the association between allergic rhinitis and asthma control in Peruvian school children. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 256 children with asthma recruited in 5 schools from Lima and Callao cities. The outcome was asthma control assessed by the asthma control test. A score test for trend of odds was used to evaluate the association between allergic rhinitis severity and the prevalence of inadequate asthma control. A generalized linear regression model was used to estimate the adjusted prevalence ratios of inadequate asthma control. Results. Allergic rhinitis was present in 66.4% of the population with asthma. The trend analysis showed a positive association between allergic rhinitis and the probability of inadequate asthma control (P < 0.001). It was associated with an increased prevalence of inadequate asthma control, with adjusted prevalence ratios of 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.19−1.98). Conclusion. This study indicates that allergic rhinitis is associated with an inadequate level of asthma control, giving support to the recommendation of evaluating rhinitis to improve asthma control in children. PMID:23984414

EYE MOVEMENT RECORDING AND NONLINEAR DYNAMICS ANALYSIS – THE CASE OF SACCADES#

PubMed Central

Aştefănoaei, Corina; Pretegiani, Elena; Optican, L.M.; Creangă, Dorina; Rufa, Alessandra

2015-01-01

Evidence of a chaotic behavioral trend in eye movement dynamics was examined in the case of a saccadic temporal series collected from a healthy human subject. Saccades are highvelocity eye movements of very short duration, their recording being relatively accessible, so that the resulting data series could be studied computationally for understanding the neural processing in a motor system. The aim of this study was to assess the complexity degree in the eye movement dynamics. To do this we analyzed the saccadic temporal series recorded with an infrared camera eye tracker from a healthy human subject in a special experimental arrangement which provides continuous records of eye position, both saccades (eye shifting movements) and fixations (focusing over regions of interest, with rapid, small fluctuations). The semi-quantitative approach used in this paper in studying the eye functioning from the viewpoint of non-linear dynamics was accomplished by some computational tests (power spectrum, portrait in the state space and its fractal dimension, Hurst exponent and largest Lyapunov exponent) derived from chaos theory. A high complexity dynamical trend was found. Lyapunov largest exponent test suggested bi-stability of cellular membrane resting potential during saccadic experiment. PMID:25698889

Testing for a CO2 fertilization effect on growth of Canadian boreal forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girardin, Martin P.; Bernier, Pierre Y.; Raulier, FréDéRic; Tardif, Jacques C.; Conciatori, France; Guo, Xiao Jing

2011-03-01

The CO2 fertilization hypothesis stipulates that rising atmospheric CO2 has a direct positive effect on net primary productivity (NPP), with experimental evidence suggesting a 23% growth enhancement with a doubling of CO2. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing a bioclimatic model simulation of NPP over the twentieth century against tree growth increment (TGI) data of 192 Pinus banksiana trees from the Duck Mountain Provincial Forest in Manitoba, Canada. We postulate that, if a CO2 fertilization effect has occurred, climatically driven simulations of NPP and TGI will diverge with increasing CO2. We use a two-level scaling approach to simulate NPP. A leaf-level model is first used to simulate high-frequency responses to climate variability. A canopy-level model of NPP is then adjusted to the aggregated leaf-level results and used to simulate yearly plot-level NPP. Neither model accounts for CO2 fertilization. The climatically driven simulations of NPP for 1912-2000 are effective for tracking the measured year-to-year variations in TGI, with 47.2% of the variance in TGI reproduced by the simulation. In addition, the simulation reproduces without divergence the positive linear trend detected in TGI over the same period. Our results therefore do not support the attribution of a portion of the historical linear trend in TGI to CO2 fertilization at the level suggested by current experimental evidence. A sensitivity analysis done by adding an expected CO2 fertilization effect to simulations suggests that the detection limit of the study is for a 14% growth increment with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration.

TU-F-CAMPUS-I-05: Semi-Automated, Open Source MRI Quality Assurance and Quality Control Program for Multi-Unit Institution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yung, J; Stefan, W; Reeve, D

2015-06-15

Purpose: Phantom measurements allow for the performance of magnetic resonance (MR) systems to be evaluated. Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 100 Acceptance Testing and Quality Assurance Procedures for MR Imaging Facilities, American College of Radiology (ACR) MR Accreditation Program MR phantom testing, and ACR MRI quality control (QC) program documents help to outline specific tests for establishing system performance baselines as well as system stability over time. Analyzing and processing tests from multiple systems can be time-consuming for medical physicists. Besides determining whether tests are within predetermined limits or criteria, monitoring longitudinal trends can also help preventmore » costly downtime of systems during clinical operation. In this work, a semi-automated QC program was developed to analyze and record measurements in a database that allowed for easy access to historical data. Methods: Image analysis was performed on 27 different MR systems of 1.5T and 3.0T field strengths from GE and Siemens manufacturers. Recommended measurements involved the ACR MRI Accreditation Phantom, spherical homogenous phantoms, and a phantom with an uniform hole pattern. Measurements assessed geometric accuracy and linearity, position accuracy, image uniformity, signal, noise, ghosting, transmit gain, center frequency, and magnetic field drift. The program was designed with open source tools, employing Linux, Apache, MySQL database and Python programming language for the front and backend. Results: Processing time for each image is <2 seconds. Figures are produced to show regions of interests (ROIs) for analysis. Historical data can be reviewed to compare previous year data and to inspect for trends. Conclusion: A MRI quality assurance and QC program is necessary for maintaining high quality, ACR MRI Accredited MR programs. A reviewable database of phantom measurements assists medical physicists with processing and monitoring of large datasets. Longitudinal data can reveal trends that although are within passing criteria indicate underlying system issues.« less

Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extreme events in China during 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yuehong; Wu, Junmei; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Yonghe

2015-08-01

This study investigates frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes based on annual maximum of daily precipitation (AMP) data of 753 observation stations in China during the period 1951-2010. Several statistical methods including L-moments, Mann-Kendall test (MK test), Student's t test ( t test) and analysis of variance ( F-test) are used to study different statistical properties related to frequency and spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the AMP series of most sites have no linear trends at 90 % confidence level, but there is a distinctive decrease trend in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. The analysis of abrupt changes shows that there are no significant changes in most sites, and no distinctive regional patterns within the mutation sites either. An important innovation different from the previous studies is the shift in the mean and the variance which are also studied in this paper in order to further analyze the changes of strong and weak precipitation extreme events. The shift analysis shows that we should pay more attention to the drought in North China and to the flood control and drought in South China, especially to those regions that have no clear trend and have a significant shift in the variance. More important, this study conducts the comprehensive analysis of a complete set of quantile estimates and its spatiotemporal characteristic in China. Spatial distribution of quantile estimation based on the AMP series demonstrated that the values gradually increased from the Northwest to the Southeast with the increment of duration and return period, while the increasing rate of estimation is smooth in the arid and semiarid region and is rapid in humid region. Frequency estimates of 50-year return period are in agreement with the maximum observations of AMP series in the most stations, which can provide more quantitative and scientific basis for decision making.

The effect of ageing on the mechanical properties of the silk of the bridge spider Larinioides cornutus (Clerck, 1757)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepore, Emiliano; Isaia, Marco; Mammola, Stefano; Pugno, Nicola

2016-05-01

Spider silk is regarded as one of the best natural polymer fibers especially in terms of low density, high tensile strength and high elongation until breaking. Since only a few bio-engineering studies have been focused on spider silk ageing, we conducted nano-tensile tests on the vertical naturally spun silk fibers of the bridge spider Larinioides cornutus (Clerck, 1757) (Arachnida, Araneae) to evaluate changes in the mechanical properties of the silk (ultimate stress and strain, Young’s modulus, toughness) over time. We studied the natural process of silk ageing at different time intervals from spinning (20 seconds up to one month), comparing silk fibers spun from adult spiders collected in the field. Data were analyzed using Linear Mixed Models. We detected a positive trend versus time for the Young’s modulus, indicating that aged silks are stiffer and possibly less effective in catching prey. Moreover, we observed a negative trend for the ultimate strain versus time, attesting a general decrement of the resistance force. These trends are interpreted as being due to the drying of the silk protein chains and the reorientation among the fibers.

Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

PubMed

Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

2017-12-01

Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Authorship in Radiation Oncology: Proliferation Trends Over 30 Years.

PubMed

Ojerholm, Eric; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

2015-11-15

To investigate authorship trends in the radiation oncology literature. We examined the authorship credits of "original research articles" within 2 popular radiation oncology journals-International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics and Radiotherapy and Oncology-in 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2014. We compared the number of authors per publication during these 4 time periods using simple linear regression as a test for trend. We investigated additional author characteristics in a subset of articles. A total of 2005 articles were eligible. The mean number of authors per publication rose from 4.3 in 1984 to 9.1 in 2014 (P<.001). On subset analysis of 400 articles, there was an increase in the percentage of multidisciplinary bylines (from 52% to 72%), multi-institutional bylines (from 20% to 53%), and publications with a trainee first author (from 16% to 56%) during the study period. The mean number of authors per publication has more than doubled over the last 30 years in the radiation oncology literature. Possible explanations include increasingly complex and collaborative research as well as honorary authorship. Explicit documentation of author contributions could help ensure that scientific work is credited according to accepted standards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Algorithmic Trading with Developmental and Linear Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Garnett; Banzhaf, Wolfgang

A developmental co-evolutionary genetic programming approach (PAM DGP) and a standard linear genetic programming (LGP) stock trading systemare applied to a number of stocks across market sectors. Both GP techniques were found to be robust to market fluctuations and reactive to opportunities associated with stock price rise and fall, with PAMDGP generating notably greater profit in some stock trend scenarios. Both algorithms were very accurate at buying to achieve profit and selling to protect assets, while exhibiting bothmoderate trading activity and the ability to maximize or minimize investment as appropriate. The content of the trading rules produced by both algorithms are also examined in relation to stock price trend scenarios.

Estimating the intensity of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayan Mangku, I.

2017-10-01

In this paper we survey some results on estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend. We do not assume any parametric form for the cyclic component of the intensity function, except that it is periodic. Moreover, we consider the case when there is only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded interval. The considered estimators are weakly and strongly consistent when the size of the observation interval indefinitely expands. Asymptotic approximations to the bias and variance of those estimators are presented.

Changing Trends in the Clinical Presentation and Management of Complete Hydatidiform Mole Among Brazilian Women.

PubMed

Braga, Antonio; Moraes, Valéria; Maestá, Izildinha; Amim Júnior, Joffre; Rezende-Filho, Jorge de; Elias, Kevin; Berkowitz, Ross

2016-06-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate potential changes in the clinical, diagnostic, and therapeutic parameters of complete hydatidiform mole in the last 25 years in Brazil. A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving the analysis of 2163 medical records of patients diagnosed with complete hydatidiform mole who received treatment at the Rio de Janeiro Reference Center for Gestational Trophoblastic Disease between January 1988 and December 2012. For the statistical analysis of the natural history of the patients with complete molar pregnancies, time series were evaluated using the Cox-Stuart test and adjusted by linear regression models. A downward linear temporal trend was observed for gestational age of complete hydatidiform mole at diagnosis, which is also reflected in the reduced occurrence of vaginal bleeding, hyperemesis and pre-eclampsia. We also observed an increase in the use of uterine vacuum aspiration to treat molar pregnancy. Although the duration of postmolar follow-up was found to decline, this was not accompanied by any alteration in the time to remission of the disease or its progression to gestational trophoblastic neoplasia. Early diagnosis of complete hydatidiform mole has altered the natural history of molar pregnancy, especially with a reduction in classical clinical symptoms. However, early diagnosis has not resulted in a reduction in the development of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia, a dilemma that still challenges professionals working with gestational trophoblastic disease.

Is Perruchet's dissociation between eyeblink conditioned responding and outcome expectancy evidence for two learning systems?

PubMed

Weidemann, Gabrielle; Tangen, Jason M; Lovibond, Peter F; Mitchell, Christopher J

2009-04-01

P. Perruchet (1985b) showed a double dissociation of conditioned responses (CRs) and expectancy for an airpuff unconditioned stimulus (US) in a 50% partial reinforcement schedule in human eyeblink conditioning. In the Perruchet effect, participants show an increase in CRs and a concurrent decrease in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of reinforced trials; conversely, participants show a decrease in CRs and a concurrent increase in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of nonreinforced trials. Three eyeblink conditioning experiments investigated whether the linear trend in eyeblink CRs in the Perruchet effect is a result of changes in associative strength of the conditioned stimulus (CS), US sensitization, or learning the precise timing of the US. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is not the result of US sensitization. Experiment 3 showed that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is present with both a fixed and a variable CS-US interval and so is not the result of learning the precise timing of the US. The results are difficult to reconcile with a single learning process model of associative learning in which expectancy mediates CRs. Copyright (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Two Aspects of the Simplex Model: Goodness of Fit to Linear Growth Curve Structures and the Analysis of Mean Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandys, Frantisek; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

1994-01-01

Studied the conditions under which the quasi-Markov simplex model fits a linear growth curve covariance structure and determined when the model is rejected. Presents a quasi-Markov simplex model with structured means and gives an example. (SLD)

Improvements to surrogate data methods for nonstationary time series.

PubMed

Lucio, J H; Valdés, R; Rodríguez, L R

2012-05-01

The method of surrogate data has been extensively applied to hypothesis testing of system linearity, when only one realization of the system, a time series, is known. Normally, surrogate data should preserve the linear stochastic structure and the amplitude distribution of the original series. Classical surrogate data methods (such as random permutation, amplitude adjusted Fourier transform, or iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform) are successful at preserving one or both of these features in stationary cases. However, they always produce stationary surrogates, hence existing nonstationarity could be interpreted as dynamic nonlinearity. Certain modifications have been proposed that additionally preserve some nonstationarity, at the expense of reproducing a great deal of nonlinearity. However, even those methods generally fail to preserve the trend (i.e., global nonstationarity in the mean) of the original series. This is the case of time series with unit roots in their autoregressive structure. Additionally, those methods, based on Fourier transform, either need first and last values in the original series to match, or they need to select a piece of the original series with matching ends. These conditions are often inapplicable and the resulting surrogates are adversely affected by the well-known artefact problem. In this study, we propose a simple technique that, applied within existing Fourier-transform-based methods, generates surrogate data that jointly preserve the aforementioned characteristics of the original series, including (even strong) trends. Moreover, our technique avoids the negative effects of end mismatch. Several artificial and real, stationary and nonstationary, linear and nonlinear time series are examined, in order to demonstrate the advantages of the methods. Corresponding surrogate data are produced with the classical and with the proposed methods, and the results are compared.

The Linear Predictability of Sea Level: A Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnewald, M.; Wunsch, C.; Heimbach, P.

2016-12-01

A benchmark of linear predictive skill of global sea level is presented, complimenting more complicated model studies of future predictive skill. Sea level is of great socioeconomic interest, as most of the worlds population live by the sea. Currently, the spread in model projections suggests poor predictive skill outside the seasonal cycle. We use 20 years of data from the ECCOv4 state estimate (1992-2012), assessing the variance attributable to the seasons and the linear predictability potential of the deseasoned component of sea level. The Northern Hemisphere has large regions where the seasons make up >90% of the variance, particularly in the western boundary current regions and zonal bands along the equator. The deaseasoned sea level is more dominant in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We treat the deseasoned sea level as a weakly stationary random process, whose predictability is given by the covariance structure. Fitting an ARMA(n,m) model, we choose the order using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). The AIC is more appropriate, with generally higher orders chosen and offering slightly more predictive accuracy. Monthly detrended data shows skill generally of the order of a few months, with isolated regions of twelve months or more. With the trend, the predictive skill increases, particularly in the South Pacific. We assess the annually averaged data, although our time-series is too short to assess the variability. There is some predictive skill, which is enhanced if the trend is not removed. A major caveat of our approach is that we test and train our model on the same dataset due to the short duration of available data.

Evaluation of Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: A Systematic Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Timothy K.; Goodman, Chris D.; Boldt, R. Gabriel

Purpose: Despite the rising costs in radiation oncology, the impact of health economics research on radiation therapy practice analysis patterns is unclear. We performed a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and cost-utility analyses (CUAs) to identify trends in reporting quality in the radiation oncology literature over time. Methods and Materials: A systematic review of radiation oncology economic evaluations up to 2014 was performed, using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guideline informed data abstraction variables including study demographics, economic parameters, and methodological details. Tufts Medical Center CEA registry quality scores provided a basis formore » qualitative assessment of included studies. Studies were stratified by 3 time periods (1995-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). The Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear trend test were used to identify trends over time. Results: In total, 102 articles were selected for final review. Most studies were in the context of a model (61%) or clinical trial (28%). Many studies lacked a conflict of interest (COI) statement (67%), a sponsorship statement (48%), a reported study time horizon (35%), and the use of discounting (29%). There was a significant increase over time in the reporting of a COI statement (P<.001), health care payer perspective (P=.019), sensitivity analyses using multivariate (P=.043) or probabilistic methods (P=.011), incremental cost-effectiveness threshold (P<.001), secondary source utility weights (P=.010), and cost effectiveness acceptability curves (P=.049). There was a trend toward improvement in Tuft scores over time (P=.065). Conclusions: Recent reports demonstrate improved reporting rates in economic evaluations; however, there remains significant room for improvement as reporting rates are still suboptimal. As fiscal pressures rise, we will rely on economic assessments to guide our practice decisions and policies. We recommend improved adherence to published guidelines and further research to determine the clinical implications of our findings.« less

Evaluation of Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Nguyen, Timothy K; Goodman, Chris D; Boldt, R Gabriel; Warner, Andrew; Palma, David A; Rodrigues, George B; Lock, Michael I; Mishra, Mark V; Zaric, Gregory S; Louie, Alexander V

2016-04-01

Despite the rising costs in radiation oncology, the impact of health economics research on radiation therapy practice analysis patterns is unclear. We performed a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and cost-utility analyses (CUAs) to identify trends in reporting quality in the radiation oncology literature over time. A systematic review of radiation oncology economic evaluations up to 2014 was performed, using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guideline informed data abstraction variables including study demographics, economic parameters, and methodological details. Tufts Medical Center CEA registry quality scores provided a basis for qualitative assessment of included studies. Studies were stratified by 3 time periods (1995-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). The Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear trend test were used to identify trends over time. In total, 102 articles were selected for final review. Most studies were in the context of a model (61%) or clinical trial (28%). Many studies lacked a conflict of interest (COI) statement (67%), a sponsorship statement (48%), a reported study time horizon (35%), and the use of discounting (29%). There was a significant increase over time in the reporting of a COI statement (P<.001), health care payer perspective (P=.019), sensitivity analyses using multivariate (P=.043) or probabilistic methods (P=.011), incremental cost-effectiveness threshold (P<.001), secondary source utility weights (P=.010), and cost effectiveness acceptability curves (P=.049). There was a trend toward improvement in Tuft scores over time (P=.065). Recent reports demonstrate improved reporting rates in economic evaluations; however, there remains significant room for improvement as reporting rates are still suboptimal. As fiscal pressures rise, we will rely on economic assessments to guide our practice decisions and policies. We recommend improved adherence to published guidelines and further research to determine the clinical implications of our findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Increasing the High Voltage Capabilities and Exploring Parameter Space of an Inertial Electrostatic Confinement Fusion Neutron Source for the Detection of Chemical Explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, Matthew K.

The objectives of the work presented here include understanding key operating principles and providing precise data sets that can be used to test inertial electrostatic confinement (IEC) fusion theory and optimize IEC device operation. The underlying physical behavior was separated from superficial trends observed in an IEC device at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW). The effects of changing voltage (30-170 kV) and current (30-100 mA) were thoroughly explored, pressure effects (0.15-1.25 mTorr) were mapped, and the effect of impurities in the system was quantified. The most challenging part of this work was designing a high voltage feedthrough that could reliably operate at higher voltages for far longer times than previously attained. A system to detect conventional explosives using fusion neutrons was also designed, constructed, and tested. Precise data sets were created by taking into account and minimizing the effects of short and long term trends in the experiment. Detailed meter current scans were taken that showed a linear relationship of the neutron production rate with current. Cathode voltage scans were slightly greater than linear in the neutron rate from 30 to 170 kV, but the rate increase diminished to near linear as 170 kV was approached. A new high voltage feedthrough was designed that surpassed the performance of past UW IEC lab feedthroughs and shows promise for long duration operation at still higher voltages. Limitations of other equipment in the IEC lab prevented testing the feedthrough to voltages above 175 kV. A more robust construction of the feedthrough and reducing the consequences of a feedthrough failure were also important design criteria that were met. A detector array was made to detect explosives via the 10.8 MeV neutron capture prompt gamma from nitrogen. Signals from four separate detectors were combined to make the individual detectors act similar to one large detector. The detector signals were both summed and combined to compare the performance of the two methods. An overwhelming background radiation signal and insufficient time resolution were two factors that led to the combined signal not performing as well as the summed signal.

Gonadal status and physical performance in older men.

PubMed

Maggio, Marcello; Ceda, Gian Paolo; Lauretani, Fulvio; Bandinelli, Stefania; Metter, Earl Jeffrey; Guralnik, Jack M; Basaria, Shehzad; Cattabiani, Chiara; Luci, Michele; Dall'Aglio, Elisabetta; Vignali, Alessandro; Volpi, Riccardo; Valenti, Giorgio; Ferrucci, Luigi

2011-03-01

To test the relationship between gonadal status and objective measures and determinants of physical performance in older men and their determinants. The study included 455 ≥ 65 year older men of InCHIANTI study, Italy, with complete data on testosterone levels, hand grip strength, cross-sectional muscle area (CSMA), short physical performance battery (SPPB). Linear models were used to test the relationship between gonadal status and determinants of physical performance. Three different groups of older men were created: (1) severely hypogonadal (N=23), total testosterone levels ≤ 230 ng /dl; (2) moderately hypogonadal (N=88), total testosterone >230 and < 350 ng/dl) and (3) eugonadal (N=344), testosterone levels ≥ 350 ng/dl. With increased severity of hypogonadal status, participants were significantly older while their BMI was substantially similar. In the age and BMI adjusted analysis, there was a significant difference in haemoglobin levels, hand grip strength and SPPB score (p for trend < 0.001) among three groups, with severely hypogonadal men having lower values of haemoglobin, muscle strength and physical performance. We found no association between testosterone group assignment and calf muscle mass and 4 m walking speed. In the multivariate analysis grip strength (p for trend = 0.004) and haemoglobin (p for trend < 0.0001) but not SPPB and other determinants of physical performance were significantly different between the three groups. In older men, gonadal status is independently associated with some determinants (haemoglobin and muscle strength) of physical performance.

Major Crustal Fault Zone Trends and Their Relation to Mineral Belts in the North-Central Great Basin, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, Brian D.; Sampson, Jay A.; Williams, Jackie M.

2007-01-01

The Great Basin physiographic province covers a large part of the western United States and contains one of the world's leading gold-producing areas, the Carlin Trend. In the Great Basin, many sedimentary-rock-hosted disseminated gold deposits occur along such linear mineral-occurrence trends. The distribution and genesis of these deposits is not fully understood, but most models indicate that regional tectonic structures play an important role in their spatial distribution. Over 100 magnetotelluric (MT) soundings were acquired between 1994 and 2001 by the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate crustal structures that may underlie the linear trends in north-central Nevada. MT sounding data were used to map changes in electrical resistivity as a function of depth that are related to subsurface lithologic and structural variations. Two-dimensional (2-D) resistivity modeling of the MT data reveals primarily northerly and northeasterly trending narrow 2-D conductors (1 to 30 ohm-m) extending to mid-crustal depths (5-20 km) that are interpreted to be major crustal fault zones. There are also a few westerly and northwesterly trending 2-D conductors. However, the great majority of the inferred crustal fault zones mapped using MT are perpendicular or oblique to the generally accepted trends. The correlation of strike of three crustal fault zones with the strike of the Carlin and Getchell trends and the Alligator Ridge district suggests they may have been the root fluid flow pathways that fed faults and fracture networks at shallower levels where gold precipitated in favorable host rocks. The abundant northeasterly crustal structures that do not correlate with the major trends may be structures that are open to fluid flow at the present time.

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Source Identification and Location Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weir, Donald; Bridges, James; Agboola, Femi; Dougherty, Robert

2001-01-01

Mr. Weir presented source location results obtained from an engine test as part of the Engine Validation of Noise Reduction Concepts program. Two types of microphone arrays were used in this program to determine the jet noise source distribution for the exhaust from a 4.3 bypass ratio turbofan engine. One was a linear array of 16 microphones located on a 25 ft. sideline and the other was a 103 microphone 3-D "cage" array in the near field of the jet. Data were obtained from a baseline nozzle and from numerous nozzle configuration using chevrons and/or tabs to reduce the jet noise. Mr. Weir presented data from two configurations: the baseline nozzle and a nozzle configuration with chevrons on both the core and bypass nozzles. This chevron configuration had achieved a jet noise reduction of 4 EPNdB in small scale tests conducted at the Glenn Research Center. IR imaging showed that the chevrons produced significant improvements in mixing and greatly reduced the length of the jet potential core. Comparison of source location data from the 1-D phased array showed a shift of the noise sources towards the nozzle and clear reductions of the sources due to the noise reduction devices. Data from the 3-D array showed a single source at a frequency of 125 Hz. located several diameters downstream from the nozzle exit. At 250 and 400 Hz., multiple sources, periodically spaced, appeared to exist downstream of the nozzle. The trend of source location moving toward the nozzle exit with increasing frequency was also observed. The 3-D array data also showed a reduction in source strength with the addition of chevrons. The overall trend of source location with frequency was compared for the two arrays and with classical experience. Similar trends were observed. Although overall trends with frequency and addition of suppression devices were consistent between the data from the 1-D and the 3-D arrays, a comparison of the details of the inferred source locations did show differences. A flight test is planned to determine if the hardware tested statically will achieve similar reductions in flight.

Parameter selection with the Hotelling observer in linear iterative image reconstruction for breast tomosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Sean D.; Roth, Jacob; Zimmerman, Cole; Reiser, Ingrid; Sidky, Emil Y.; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-03-01

In this work we investigate an efficient implementation of a region-of-interest (ROI) based Hotelling observer (HO) in the context of parameter optimization for detection of a rod signal at two orientations in linear iterative image reconstruction for DBT. Our preliminary results suggest that ROI-HO performance trends may be efficiently estimated by modeling only the 2D plane perpendicular to the detector and containing the X-ray source trajectory. In addition, the ROI-HO is seen to exhibit orientation dependent trends in detectability as a function of the regularization strength employed in reconstruction. To further investigate the ROI-HO performance in larger 3D system models, we present and validate an iterative methodology for calculating the ROI-HO. Lastly, we present a real data study investigating the correspondence between ROI-HO performance trends and signal conspicuity. Conspicuity of signals in real data reconstructions is seen to track well with trends in ROI-HO detectability. In particular, we observe orientation dependent conspicuity matching the orientation dependent detectability of the ROI-HO.

Structural and lithologic study of northern California Coast Range and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator); Steele, W. C.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Photgeologic examination of repetitive multispectral ERTS-1 imagery of Northern California has disclosed several systems of linear features which may be important for the interpretation of the structural history of California. They are separated from an orthogonal system of linears in the Klamath Mts. by a set of discontinuous southeast-trending linear features (the Mendocino system) which is traceable from the Pacific Coast, at Cape Mendocino, into the eastern foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Within the Sierra Nevada, the Mendocino system separates the north-trending Sierran system from a set of linears characteristic of the Modoc Plateau. With minor exception, little overlap exists among the systems which suggests a decipherable chronology and evolutionary history for the region. The San Andres system of linears appears to truncate or co-exist with most of the other systems in the northern Coast Ranges. The Mendocino system truncates the Klamath, Sierran, and Modoc systems. The Sierran system may represent fundamental and long-persisting pre-late Paleozoic zones of crustal weakness which have been reactivated from time to time. The Mendocino system was possibly developed in early Mesozoic and is important to the structural framework of Northern California.

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Trends in age verification among U.S. adolescents attempting to buy cigarettes at retail stores, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Filippidis, Filippos T; Agaku, Israel T; Connolly, Gregory N; Vardavas, Constantine I

2014-04-01

This study assessed trends in age verification prior to cigarette sales to U.S. middle and high school students, and refusal to sell cigarettes to students aged <18 years during 2000-2009. Data were obtained from the 2000-2009 National Youth Tobacco Survey. Trends during 2000-2009 were assessed using binary logistic regression (p<0.05). The proportion of all students, who reported being asked to show proof of age prior to a cigarette purchase in the past 30 days did not change significantly between 2000 (46.9%) and 2009 (44.9%) (p=0.529 for linear trend). No significant trend in the proportion of students aged < 18 years who were refused a sale when attempting to buy cigarettes was observed between 2000 (39.8%) and 2009 (36.7%) (p=0.283 for linear trend). Refusal of a cigarette sale was significantly higher among under-aged boys compared to girls (adjusted odds ratio=1.48; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-1.70). About half of U.S. middle and high school students who reported making a cigarette purchase were not asked for proof of age, and about three of five under-aged buyers successfully made a cigarette purchase in 2009. Intensified implementation and enforcement of policies requiring age verification among youths is warranted to reduce access and use of tobacco products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Worldwide Trends of Urinary Stone Disease Treatment Over the Last Two Decades: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Geraghty, Robert M; Jones, Patrick; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-06-01

Numerous studies have reported on regional or national trends of stone disease treatment. However, no article has yet examined the global trends of intervention for stone disease. A systematic review of articles from 1996 to September 2016 for all English language articles reporting on trends of surgical treatment of stone disease was performed. Authors were contacted in the case of data not being clear. If the authors did not reply, data were estimated from graphs or tables. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 21, and trends were analyzed using linear regression. Our systematic review yielded 120 articles, of which 8 were included in the initial review. This reflected outcomes from six countries with available data: United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Brazil. Overall ureteroscopy (URS) had a 251.8% increase in total number of treatments performed with the share of total treatments increasing by 17%. While the share of total treatments for percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) remained static, the share for extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy and open surgery fell by 14.5% and 12%, respectively. There was significant linear regression between rising trends of total treatments year on year for URS (p < 0.001). In the last two decades, the share of total treatment for urolithiasis across the published literature has increased for URS, stable for PCNL, and decreased for lithotripsy and open surgery.

Climate change at upper treeline: How do trees on the edge react to increasing temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Matthias; Bugmann, Harald; Nötzli, Magdalena; Bigler, Christof

2017-04-01

Treeline ecotones are thought to be particularly sensitive to climate warming, and an alteration of their growth conditions may have important implications for the ecosystem services they supply in mountain regions. We use a novel approach to quantify effects of a changing climate on tree growth, using case studies in the European Alps. We compiled tree-ring data from almost 600 trees of four species at treeline in three climate regions of Switzerland. Temperature loggers installed along transects provided data for a precise interpolation of temperatures experienced by the sampled trees. To assess the influence of temperature on annual growth, we used linear mixed-effects models, allowing us to quantify effect sizes and to account for between-tree growth variability. After removing biological growth trends, we isolated temporal trends of ring-width indices. Furthermore, we fitted non-linear regression models to radial growth rates of individual years with temperature and tree age as predicting covariates for a fine-scale investigation of the temperature dependency of tree growth. For all species, climate-growth linear mixed-effects models indicated strong positive responses of ring-width indices to temperature in early summer and previous year's autumn, featuring considerable between-tree variability. All species showed positive ring-width index trends at treeline but different interactions with elevation: Larix decidua exhibited a declining ring-width index trend with decreasing elevation, whereas Picea abies, Pinus cembra and Pinus mugo showed increasing and/or stable trends. Not only reflected our findings the effects of ameliorated growth conditions, they might have also revealed suspected negative and positive feedbacks of climate change on growth, and increased the knowledge about the functional form and parameterization of the temperature dependency of tree growth.

Trends in bullying victimization by gender among U.S. high school students.

PubMed

Pontes, Nancy M H; Ayres, Cynthia G; Lewandowski, Carla; Pontes, Manuel C F

2018-06-01

This research used four consecutive waves of data from the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) conducted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), to estimate linear time trends by gender in the prevalence of school and electronic bullying victimization among U.S. high school students (N = 61,042). Dependent variables were student self-reported school bullying victimization and electronic bullying victimization during the previous 12 months. Independent variables used to estimate multiple logistic regression models by gender were survey year, race/ethnicity, and grade level. Results showed the prevalence of school bullying increased significantly among females from 2009 (21.2%) to 2015 (24.8%), linear trend OR = 1.08 [1.04, 1.12]; and decreased significantly among males from 2009 (18.7%) to 2015 (15.8%), linear trend OR = 0.93 [0.89, 0.98]. Prevalence of electronic bullying was unchanged between 2011 to 2015 among both male and female students. Asian race, relative to White race, was associated with significantly lower rates of both school and electronic bullying victimization among females, but not males. The incidence of school and electronic bullying victimization was significantly lower among Black and Hispanic students, but not among multiple-race students, regardless of student gender. Healthy People 2020 set a goal to reduce school bullying victimization 10% by 2019. As of 2015, school bullying victimization decreased significantly among males (16% decrease); it significantly increased among females (17% increase). Future research should explore underlying factors related to these divergent trends, and develop effective strategies to reverse the alarming rise in female school bullying victimization. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using generalized additive (mixed) models to analyze single case designs.

PubMed

Shadish, William R; Zuur, Alain F; Sullivan, Kristynn J

2014-04-01

This article shows how to apply generalized additive models and generalized additive mixed models to single-case design data. These models excel at detecting the functional form between two variables (often called trend), that is, whether trend exists, and if it does, what its shape is (e.g., linear and nonlinear). In many respects, however, these models are also an ideal vehicle for analyzing single-case designs because they can consider level, trend, variability, overlap, immediacy of effect, and phase consistency that single-case design researchers examine when interpreting a functional relation. We show how these models can be implemented in a wide variety of ways to test whether treatment is effective, whether cases differ from each other, whether treatment effects vary over cases, and whether trend varies over cases. We illustrate diagnostic statistics and graphs, and we discuss overdispersion of data in detail, with examples of quasibinomial models for overdispersed data, including how to compute dispersion and quasi-AIC fit indices in generalized additive models. We show how generalized additive mixed models can be used to estimate autoregressive models and random effects and discuss the limitations of the mixed models compared to generalized additive models. We provide extensive annotated syntax for doing all these analyses in the free computer program R. Copyright © 2013 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing and magma reservoir volumes during early episodes of Kīlauea Volcano's Pu`u `Ō`ō eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamberger, Patrick J.; Garcia, Michael O.

2007-02-01

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing allows for evaluation of volumes of magma storage reservoirs and magma plumbing configurations. A new analytical expression is derived for a simple two-component box-mixing model describing the proportions of mixing components in erupted lavas as a function of time. Four versions of this model are applied to a mixing trend spanning episodes 3 31 of Kilauea Volcano’s Puu Oo eruption, each testing different constraints on magma reservoir input and output fluxes. Unknown parameters (e.g., magma reservoir influx rate, initial reservoir volume) are optimized for each model using a non-linear least squares technique to fit model trends to geochemical time-series data. The modeled mixing trend closely reproduces the observed compositional trend. The two models that match measured lava effusion rates have constant magma input and output fluxes and suggest a large pre-mixing magma reservoir (46±2 and 49±1 million m3), with little or no volume change over time. This volume is much larger than a previous estimate for the shallow, dike-shaped magma reservoir under the Puu Oo vent, which grew from ˜3 to ˜10 12 million m3. These volumetric differences are interpreted as indicating that mixing occurred first in a larger, deeper reservoir before the magma was injected into the overlying smaller reservoir.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

Injection characteristics study of high-pressure direct injector for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) using experimental and analytical method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, Z.; Rahim, MF Abdul; Mamat, R.

2017-10-01

The injection characteristics of direct injector affect the mixture formation and combustion processes. In addition, the injector is converted from gasoline operation for CNG application. Thus measurement of CNG direct injector mass flow rate was done by independently tested a single injector on a test bench. The first case investigated the effect of CNG injection pressure and the second case evaluate the effect of pulse-width of injection duration. An analytical model was also developed to predict the mass flow rate of the injector. The injector was operated in a choked condition in both the experiments and simulation studies. In case 1, it was shown that mass flow rate through the injector is affected by injection pressure linearly. Based on the tested injection pressure of 20 bar to 60 bar, the resultant mass flow rate are in the range of 0.4 g/s to 1.2 g/s which are met with theoretical flow rate required by the engine. However, in Case 2, it was demonstrated that the average mass flow rate at short injection durations is lower than recorded in Case 1. At injection pressure of 50 bar, the average mass flow rate for Case 2 and Case 1 are 0.7 g/s and 1.1 g/s respectively. Also, the measured mass flow rate at short injection duration showing a fluctuating data in the range of 0.2 g/s - 1.3 g/s without any noticeable trends. The injector model able to predict the trend of the mass flow rate at different injection pressure but unable to track the fluctuating trend at short injection duration.

Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1971–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickman, R. Edward; Hirsch, Robert M.

2017-02-27

In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the Delaware River Basin Commission, trend tests were conducted on selected water-quality characteristics measured at stations on streams in New Jersey during selected periods over water years 1971‒2011. Tests were conducted on 3 nutrients (total nitrogen, filtered nitrate plus nitrite, and total phosphorus) at 28 water-quality stations. At 4 of these stations, tests were also conducted on 3 measures of major ions (specific conductance, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids).Two methods were used to identify trends—Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models and seasonal rank-sum tests. For this report, the use of WRTDS models included the use of the WRTDS Bootstrap Test (WBT). WRTDS models identified trends in flow-normalized annual concentrations and flow-normalized annual fluxes over water years 1980‒2011 and 2000‒11 for each nutrient, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids. WRTDS models were developed for each nutrient at the 20 or 21 stations at which streamflow was measured or estimated. Trends in nutrient concentration were reported for these stations; trends in nutrient fluxes were reported only for 15–17 of these stations.The results of WRTDS models for water years 1980‒2011 identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus than upward trends. For total nitrogen, there were downward trends at 9 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For total phosphorus, there were downward trends at 8 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For filtered nitrate plus nitrite, there were downward trends at 6 stations and upward trends at 6 stations. The result of the trend test in flux for a selected nutrient at a selected station (downward trend, no trend, or upward trend) usually matched the trend result in concentration.Seasonal rank-sum tests, the second method used, identified step trends in water-quality measured in different decades—1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Tests were conducted on all nutrients at 28 stations and on all measures of major ions at the 4 selected stations. Results of seasonal rank-sum tests between the 1980s and the 2000s identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of total nitrogen (14) than stations with upward trends (2) and more stations with downward trends in concentrations of total phosphorus (18) than stations with upward trends (1).A combined dataset of trend results for concentrations over water years 1980‒2011 was created from the results of the two tests for the period. Results of WRTDS models were included in this combined dataset, if available. Otherwise, the results of the seasonal rank-sum tests between water-quality characteristics measured in the 1980s and 2000s were included.Trend results over water years 1980‒2011 in the combined dataset show that few of the 28 stations had upward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus. There were only 2 stations with upward trends in total nitrogen concentration and 1 station with an upward trend in total phosphorus concentration. Results for filtered nitrate plus nitrite show about the same number of stations with upward trends (9) as stations with downward trends (7). Results for all measures of major ions show upward trends at the four stations tested.

Solar activity indices as a proxy for the variation of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) over Bahir Dar, Ethiopia during the year 2010-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassa, Tsegaye; Tilahun, Samson; Damtie, Baylie

2017-09-01

This paper was aimed at investigating the solar variations of vTEC as a function of solar activity parameters, EUV and F10.7 radio flux. The daily values of ionospheric vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) were observed using a dual frequency GPS receiver deployed at Bahir Dar (11.6°N and 37.36°E), Ethiopia. Measurements were taken during the period of 2010-2014 for successive five years and analysis was done on only quiet day observations. A quadratic fit was used as a model to describe the daily variation of vTEC in relation to solar parameters. Linear and non-linear coefficients of the vTEC variations were calculated in order to capture the trend of the variation. The variation of vTEC have showed good agreement with the trend of solar parameters in almost all of the days we consider during the period of our observations. We have explicitly observed days with insignificant TECU deviation (eg. modeling with respect to EUV, DOY = 49 in 2010 and modeling with respect to F10.7, DOY = 125 in 2012 and the like) and days with maximum deviation (about 50 TECU). A maximum deviation were observed, on average, during months of equinox whereas minimum during solstice months. This implies that there is a need to consider more parameters, including EUV and F10.7, that can affect the variation of vTEC during equinox seasons. Relatively, small deviations was observed in modeling vTEC as a function of EUV compared to that of the variation due to F10.7 cm flux. This may also tell us that EUV can be more suitable in modeling the solar variation of vTEC especially for longterm trends. Even though, the linear trend of solar variations of vTEC was frequently observed, significant saturation and amplification trends of the solar variations of vTEC were also observed to some extent across the months of the years we have analyzed. This mixed trend of the solar variation of vTEC implies the need for thorough investigation on the effect of solar parameters on TEC. However, based on long-term dataset, we came to conclude that the solar variations of vTEC is dominated by its linear pattern.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations

PubMed Central

Condon, Robert H.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Sutherland, Kelly R.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Haddock, Steven H. D.; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D.; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M.; Graham, William M.

2013-01-01

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face. PMID:23277544

Recent Enrollment Trends in American Soil Science Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.; Abit, Sergio; Brown, David; Dolliver, Holly; Hopkins, David; Lindbo, David; Manu, Andrew; Mbila, Monday; Parikh, Sanjai J.; Schulze, Darrell; Shaw, Joey; Weil, Ray; Weindorf, David

2015-04-01

Soil science student enrollment was on the decline in the United States from the early 1990s through the early 2000s. Overall undergraduate student enrollment in American colleges and universities rose by about 11% over the same time period. This fact created considerable consternation among the American soil science community. As we head into the International Year of Soil, it seemed to be a good time to revisit this issue and examine current enrollment trends. Fourteen universities that offer undergraduate and/or graduate programs in soil science were surveyed for their enrollments over the time period 2007-2014 (the last seven academic years). The 14 schools represent about 20% of the institutions that offer soil science degrees/programs in the United States. Thirteen institutions submitted undergraduate data and 10 submitted graduate data, which was analyzed by individual institution and in aggregate. Simple linear regression was used to find the slope of best-fit trend lines. For individual institutions, a slope of ≥ 0.5 (on average, the school gained 0.5 students per year or more) was considered to be growing enrollment, ≤ -0.5 was considered shrinking enrollment, and between -0.5 and 0.5 was considered to be stable enrollment. For aggregated data, the 0.5 slope standard was multiplied by the number of schools in the aggregated survey to determine whether enrollment was growing, shrinking, or stable. Over the period of the study, six of the 13 schools reporting undergraduate data showed enrollment gains, five of the 13 showed stable enrollments, one of the 13 showed declining enrollments, and one of the 13 discontinued their undergraduate degree program. The linear regression trend line for the undergraduate schools' composite data had a slope of 55.0 students/year (R2 = 0.96), indicating a strong overall trend of undergraduate enrollment growth at these schools. However, the largest school had also seen large growth in enrollment. To ensure that this one institution was not masking an overall declining enrollment trend, the regression was also run with that institution removed. This gave a linear trend line with a slope of 6.6 students/year (R2 = 0.90), indicating more moderate growth but still a trend towards growth in undergraduate enrollment. Four of the 10 graduate programs showed enrollment gains, five of the 10 showed stable enrollments, and one of the 10 showed declining enrollments. The linear regression trend line for the composite graduate school data had a slope of 12.0 students/year (R2 = 0.97), indicating an overall trend of enrollment growth at these schools. As a whole, both the undergraduate and graduate programs investigated showed moderate growth trends, which represent a reversal of enrollment trends reported at the beginning of the 21st Century. Challenges in obtaining the data used for this study included 1) differences in data collection and archiving by institutions and 2) only some schools still offer a soil science degree; many schools offer another degree (e.g., agricultural studies, agronomy, environmental resource science, environmental science, plant and soil science, etc.) with a soils option or emphasis. In the second case it was necessary to identify which students in these other degree programs pursued the soil science option or emphasis.

Interval linear programming model for long-term planning of vehicle recycling in the Republic of Serbia under uncertainty.

PubMed

Simic, Vladimir; Dimitrijevic, Branka

2015-02-01

An interval linear programming approach is used to formulate and comprehensively test a model for optimal long-term planning of vehicle recycling in the Republic of Serbia. The proposed model is applied to a numerical case study: a 4-year planning horizon (2013-2016) is considered, three legislative cases and three scrap metal price trends are analysed, availability of final destinations for sorted waste flows is explored. Potential and applicability of the developed model are fully illustrated. Detailed insights on profitability and eco-efficiency of the projected contemporary equipped vehicle recycling factory are presented. The influences of the ordinance on the management of end-of-life vehicles in the Republic of Serbia on the vehicle hulks procuring, sorting generated material fractions, sorted waste allocation and sorted metals allocation decisions are thoroughly examined. The validity of the waste management strategy for the period 2010-2019 is tested. The formulated model can create optimal plans for procuring vehicle hulks, sorting generated material fractions, allocating sorted waste flows and allocating sorted metals. Obtained results are valuable for supporting the construction and/or modernisation process of a vehicle recycling system in the Republic of Serbia. © The Author(s) 2015.

Computer program for the Kendall family of trend tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helsel, Dennis R.; Mueller, David K.; Slack, James R.

2006-01-01

The Seasonal Kendall (SK) test for trend was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and has become the most frequently used test for trend in the environmental sciences. Recently the test was modified to form the Regional Kendall (RK) test for trend. In this form, trends at numerous locations within a region are tested to determine whether the direction of trend is consistent across the entire region. Computer code developed at the USGS in the 1980s to perform the SK test is no longer widely available. Other versions written by other scientists may or may not be easily available, and may require commercial software in order to be run. These other versions do not explicitly compute the RK test. Therefore, the original code for computing the SK test has been repackaged into a program that runs under the Windows operating system. This program may be used to verify that other implementations of the test give the same results as the original. The program also provides a means for computing the RK test and the simpler Mann-Kendall test for trend.

The intra-day dynamics of affect, self-esteem, tiredness, and suicidality in Major Depression.

PubMed

Crowe, Eimear; Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Carroll, Susan; Malone, Kevin M

2018-02-21

Despite growing interest in the temporal dynamics of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), we know little about the intra-day fluctuations of key symptom constructs. In a study of momentary experience, the Experience Sampling Method captured the within-day dynamics of negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, passive suicidality, and tiredness across clinical MDD (N= 31) and healthy control groups (N= 33). Ten symptom measures were taken per day over 6 days (N= 2231 observations). Daily dynamics were modeled via intra-day time-trends, variability, and instability in symptoms. MDD participants showed significantly increased variability and instability in negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, and suicidality. Significantly different time-trends were found in positive affect (increased diurnal variation and an inverted U-shaped pattern in MDD, compared to a positive linear trend in controls) and tiredness (decreased diurnal variation in MDD). In the MDD group only, passive suicidality displayed a negative linear trend and self-esteem displayed a quadratic inverted U trend. MDD and control participants thus showed distinct dynamic profiles in all symptoms measured. As well as the overall severity of symptoms, intra-day dynamics appear to define the experience of MDD symptoms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

Trends in Periprosthetic Hip Infection and Associated Costs: A Population-Based Study Assessing the Impact of Hospital Factors Using National Data.

PubMed

Brochin, Robert L; Phan, Kevin; Poeran, Jashvant; Zubizarreta, Nicole; Galatz, Leesa M; Moucha, Calin S

2018-07-01

Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is an important cost driver in hip arthroplasty revisions, thus necessitating careful trend monitoring. Recent national trend data are lacking; we therefore assessed national PJI burden, trends in prevalence, and hospitalization costs. We extracted data on hip arthroplasty revisions from the National Inpatient Sample (2003-2013; n = 465,209). Trends in PJI prevalence and hospitalization costs were (1) assessed for the full cohort and (2) stratified by hospital teaching status, hospital bed size (≤299, 300-499, and ≥500 beds), and hospital region (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). The Cochran-Armitage trend test (PJI prevalence) and linear regression (hospitalization costs) determined significance of trends. Trends were adjusted for patient's age, gender, insurance type, race, Deyo-Charlson comorbidities, obesity, length of stay, and hospital characteristics. Overall, PJI prevalence was 15.0% (n = 70,011); adjusted prevalence increased from 13.1% in 2003 to 16.4% in 2013 (P < .0001), while adjusted median PJI hospitalization costs increased from $28,240 in 2003 to $31,529 in 2013 (P < .0001). Rural hospitals had the lowest PJI burden (12.5%; n = 4,525), while urban and teaching hospitals had the highest PJI burden (16.4%; n = 40,297). The stratified analyses, particularly in large hospitals (>500 beds), showed that PJI prevalence increased from 13.0% (2003) to 17.4% (2013; a 33.8% increase; P < .0001). Similarly, PJI revision hospitalization costs increased from a median of $27,490 (2003) to $31,312 (2013; a 14% increase; P < .0001). The burden of PJI in hip arthroplasty revision is increasing and-while additional research is needed-there appears to be a particular shift of revision burden to larger hospitals with increasing costs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Test Plan for a Calibration Demonstration System for the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thome, Kurtis; McCorkel, Joel; Hair, Jason; McAndrew, Brendan; Daw, Adrian; Jennings, Donald; Rabin, Douglas

2012-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe high-accuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change. One of the major objectives of CLARREO is to advance the accuracy of SI traceable absolute calibration at infrared and reflected solar wavelengths. This advance is required to reach the on-orbit absolute accuracy required to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps while remaining sufficiently accurate to observe climate change to within the uncertainty of the limit of natural variability. While these capabilities exist at NIST in the laboratory, there is a need to demonstrate that it can move successfully from NIST to NASA and/or instrument vendor capabilities for future spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the test plan for the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. The goal of the CDS is to allow the testing and evaluation of calibration approaches , alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. The end result of efforts with the SOLARIS CDS will be an SI-traceable error budget for reflectance retrieval using solar irradiance as a reference and methods for laboratory-based, absolute calibration suitable for climate-quality data collections. The CLARREO mission addresses the need to observe high-accuracy, long-term climate change trends and advance the accuracy of SI traceable absolute calibration. The current work describes the test plan for the SOLARIS which is the calibration demonstration system for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. SOLARIS provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. The end result will be an SI-traceable error budget for reflectance retrieval using solar irradiance as a reference and methods for laboratory-based, absolute calibration suitable for climate-quality data collections.

Climate change, weather and road deaths.

PubMed

Robertson, Leon

2018-06-01

In 2015, a 7% increase in road deaths per population in the USA reversed the 35-year downward trend. Here I test the hypothesis that weather influenced the change in trend. I used linear regression to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitation on miles driven per capita in urbanizedurbanised areas of the USA during 2010. I matched date and county of death with temperature on that date and number of people exposed to that temperature to calculate the risk per persons exposed to specific temperatures. I employed logistic regression analysis of temperature, precipitation and other risk factors prevalent in 2014 to project expected deaths in 2015 among the 100 most populous counties in the USA. Comparison of actual and projected deaths provided an estimate of deaths expected without the temperature increase. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Impact of a New Law to Reduce the Legal Blood Alcohol Concentration Limit - A Poisson Regression Analysis and Descriptive Approach.

PubMed

Nistal-Nuño, Beatriz

2017-03-31

In Chile, a new law introduced in March 2012 lowered the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for impaired drivers from 0.1% to 0.08% and the BAC limit for driving under the influence of alcohol from 0.05% to 0.03%, but its effectiveness remains uncertain. The goal of this investigation was to evaluate the effects of this enactment on road traffic injuries and fatalities in Chile. A retrospective cohort study. Data were analyzed using a descriptive and a Generalized Linear Models approach, type of Poisson regression, to analyze deaths and injuries in a series of additive Log-Linear Models accounting for the effects of law implementation, month influence, a linear time trend and population exposure. A review of national databases in Chile was conducted from 2003 to 2014 to evaluate the monthly rates of traffic fatalities and injuries associated to alcohol and in total. It was observed a decrease by 28.1 percent in the monthly rate of traffic fatalities related to alcohol as compared to before the law (P<0.001). Adding a linear time trend as a predictor, the decrease was by 20.9 percent (P<0.001).There was a reduction in the monthly rate of traffic injuries related to alcohol by 10.5 percent as compared to before the law (P<0.001). Adding a linear time trend as a predictor, the decrease was by 24.8 percent (P<0.001). Positive results followed from this new 'zero-tolerance' law implemented in 2012 in Chile. Chile experienced a significant reduction in alcohol-related traffic fatalities and injuries, being a successful public health intervention.

Arginine intake is associated with oxidative stress in a general population.

PubMed

Carvalho, Aline Martins de; Oliveira, Antonio Anax Falcão de; Loureiro, Ana Paula de Melo; Gattás, Gilka Jorge Figaro; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Marchioni, Dirce Maria

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the association between protein and arginine from meat intake and oxidative stress in a general population. Data came from the Health Survey for Sao Paulo (ISA-Capital), a cross-sectional population-based study in Brazil (N = 549 adults). Food intake was estimated by a 24-h dietary recall. Oxidative stress was estimated by malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration in plasma. Analyses were performed using general linear regression models adjusted for some genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders. MDA levels were associated with meat intake (P for linear trend = 0.031), protein from meat (P for linear trend = 0.006), and arginine from meat (P for linear trend = 0.044) after adjustments for confounders: age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, intake of fruit and vegetables, energy and heterocyclic amines, C-reactive protein levels, and polymorphisms in GSTM1 (glutathione S-transferase Mu 1) and GSTT1 (glutathione S-transferase theta 1) genes. Results were not significant for total protein and protein from vegetable intake (P > 0.05). High protein and arginine from meat intake were associated with oxidative stress independently of genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders in a population-based study. Our results suggested a novel link between high protein/arginine intake and oxidative stress, which is a major cause of age-related diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of hospitalized live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women diagnosed with substance abuse at liveborn delivery: United States, 1999-2008.

PubMed

Pan, I-Jen; Yi, Hsiao-ye

2013-05-01

To describe prevalence trends in hospitalized live births affected by placental transmission of alcohol and drugs, as well as prevalence trends among parturient women hospitalized for liveborn delivery and diagnosed with substance abuse problems in the United States from 1999 to 2008. Comparison of the two sets of trends helps determine whether the observed changes in neonatal problems over time were caused by shifts in maternal substance abuse problems. This study independently identified hospitalized live births and maternal live born deliveries from discharge records in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, one of the largest hospital administrative databases. Substance-related diagnosis codes on the records were used to identify live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women with substance abuse problems. The analysis calculated prevalence differences and percentage changes over the 10 years, with Loess curves fitted to 10-year prevalence estimates to depict trend patterns. Linear and quadratic trends in prevalence were simultaneously tested using logistic regression analyses. The study also examined data on costs, primary expected payer, and length of hospital stays. From 1999 to 2008, prevalence increased for narcotic- and hallucinogen-affected live births and neonatal drug withdrawal syndrome but decreased for alcohol- and cocaine-affected live births. Maternal substance abuse at delivery showed similar trends, but prevalence of alcohol abuse remained relatively stable. Substance-affected live births required longer hospital stays and higher medical expenses, mostly billable to Medicaid. The findings highlight the urgent need for behavioral intervention and early treatment for substance-abusing pregnant women to reduce the number of substance-affected live births.

Prevalence of Hospitalized Live Births Affected by Alcohol and Drugs and Parturient Women Diagnosed with Substance Abuse at Liveborn Delivery: United States, 1999–2008

PubMed Central

Pan, I-Jen; Yi, Hsiao-ye

2015-01-01

Objective To describe prevalence trends in hospitalized live births affected by placental transmission of alcohol and drugs, as well as prevalence trends among parturient women hospitalized for liveborn delivery and diagnosed with substance abuse problems in the United States from 1999 to 2008. Comparison of the two sets of trends helps determine whether the observed changes in neonatal problems over time were caused by shifts in maternal substance abuse problems. Methods This study independently identified hospitalized live births and maternal live born deliveries from discharge records in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, one of the largest hospital administrative databases. Substance-related diagnosis codes on the records were used to identify live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women with substance abuse problems. The analysis calculated prevalence differences and percentage changes over the 10 years, with Loess curves fitted to 10-year prevalence estimates to depict trend patterns. Linear and quadratic trends in prevalence were simultaneously tested using logistic regression analyses. The study also examined data on costs, primary expected payer, and length of hospital stays. Results From 1999 to 2008, prevalence increased for narcotic- and hallucinogen-affected live births and neonatal drug withdrawal syndrome but decreased for alcohol- and cocaine-affected live births. Maternal substance abuse at delivery showed similar trends, but prevalence of alcohol abuse remained relatively stable. Substance-affected live births required longer hospital stays and higher medical expenses, mostly billable to Medicaid. Conclusions The findings highlight the urgent need for behavioral intervention and early treatment for substance-abusing pregnant women to reduce the number of substance-affected live births. PMID:22688539

Age Life Evaluation of Space Shuttle Crew Escape System Pyrotechnic Components Loaded with Hexanitrostilbene (HNS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, William C., III

1996-01-01

Determining deterioration characteristics of the Space Shuttle crew escape system pyrotechnic components loaded with hexanitrostilbene would enable us to establish a hardware life-limit for these items, so we could better plan our equipment use and, possibly, extend the useful life of the hardware. We subjected components to accelerated-age environments to determine degradation characteristics and established a hardware life-limit based upon observed and calculated trends. We extracted samples using manufacturing lots currently installed in the Space Shuttle crew escape system and from other NASA programs. Hardware included in the study consisted of various forms and ages of mild detonating fuse, linear shaped charge, and flexible confined detonating cord. The hardware types were segregated into 5 groups. One was subjected to detonation velocity testing for a baseline. Two were first subjected to prolonged 155 F heat exposure, and the other two were first subjected to 255 F, before undergoing detonation velocity testing and/or chromatography analysis. Test results showed no measurable changes in performance to allow a prediction of an end of life given the storage and elevated temperature environments the hardware experiences. Given the lack of a definitive performance trend, coupled with previous tests on post-flight Space Shuttle hardware showing no significant changes in chemical purity or detonation velocity, we recommend a safe increase in the useful life of the hardware to 20 years, from the current maximum limits of 10 and 15 years, depending on the hardware.

Spectral variability of plagioclase-mafic mixtures (3): Quantitative analysis applying the MGM algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serventi, Giovanna; Carli, Cristian; Sgavetti, Maria

2015-07-01

Among the techniques to detect planet's mineralogical composition remote sensing, visible and near-infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectroscopy is a powerful tool, because crystal field absorption bands are related to particular transitional metals in well-defined crystal structures, e.g., Fe2+ in M1 and M2 sites of olivine (OL) or pyroxene (PX). Although OL, PX and their mixtures have been widely studied, plagioclase (PL), considered a spectroscopically transparent mineral, has been poorly analyzed. In this work we quantitatively investigate the influence of plagioclase absorption band on the absorption bands of Fe, Mg minerals using the Modified Gaussian Model - MGM (Sunshine, J.M. et al. [1990]. J. Geophys. Res. 95, 6955-6966). We consider three plagioclase compositions of varying FeO wt.% contents and five mafic end-members (1) 56% orthopyroxene and 44% clinopyroxene, (2) 28% olivine and 72% orthopyroxene, (3) 30% orthopyroxene and 70% olivine, (4) 100% olivine and (5) 100% orthopyroxene, at two different particle sizes. The spectral parameters considered here are: band depth, band center, band width, c0 (the continuum intercept) and c1 (the continuum offset). In particular, we show the variation of the plagioclase and composite (plagioclase-olivine) band spectral parameters versus the volumetric iron content related to the plagioclase abundance in mixtures. Generally, increasing the vol. FeO% due to the PL: (1) 1250 nm band deepens with linear trend in mixtures with pyroxenes, while it decreases in mixtures with olivine, with trend shifting from parabolic to linear increasing the olivine content in end-member; (2) 1250 nm band center moves towards longer wavelengths with linear trend in pyroxene-rich mixtures and parabolic trend in olivine-rich mixtures; and (3) 1250 nm band clearly widens with linear trend in olivine-free mixtures, while the widening is only slight in olivine-rich mixtures. We also outline how spectral parameters can be ambiguous leading to an incorrect mineralogical interpretation. Furthermore, we show the presence of an asymmetry of the plagioclase band towards the IR region, resolvable adding a Gaussian in the 1600-1800 nm spectral region.

Trends in Firearm Suicide among Older American Males: 1979-1988.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Mark S.; And Others

1994-01-01

Used National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality data to perform age-specific analysis of linear trends in suicide. Found males aged 65+ years were most likely to use firearms. In 1988, nearly 80% of suicides by older males were committed with firearms. Firearm-related suicide rates were much lower for blacks than whites 65 and…

Air Pollution and urban climatology at Norfolk, Virginia

Treesearch

W. Maurice Pritchard; Kuldip P. Chopra

1977-01-01

The atmosphere at Norfolk is usually stable, with no strongly prevailing wind direction. Linear regression analyses of visibility data indicate a generally decreasing visibility trend between 1960 and 1972, with a possible trend reversal in later years. A 44 percent increase in the annual frequency of 0-4-mile visibility occurred in 1960-72. Similar analyses of...

Obesity, High-Calorie Food Intake, and Academic Achievement Trends among U.S. School Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Jian; O'Connell, Ann A.

2012-01-01

The authors investigated children's self-reported high-calorie food intake in Grade 5 and its relationship to trends in obesity status and academic achievement over the first 6 years of school. They used 3-level hierarchical linear models in the large-scale database (the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study--Kindergarten Cohort). Findings indicated…

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

An Analytic Solution to the Computation of Power and Sample Size for Genetic Association Studies under a Pleiotropic Mode of Inheritance.

PubMed

Gordon, Derek; Londono, Douglas; Patel, Payal; Kim, Wonkuk; Finch, Stephen J; Heiman, Gary A

2016-01-01

Our motivation here is to calculate the power of 3 statistical tests used when there are genetic traits that operate under a pleiotropic mode of inheritance and when qualitative phenotypes are defined by use of thresholds for the multiple quantitative phenotypes. Specifically, we formulate a multivariate function that provides the probability that an individual has a vector of specific quantitative trait values conditional on having a risk locus genotype, and we apply thresholds to define qualitative phenotypes (affected, unaffected) and compute penetrances and conditional genotype frequencies based on the multivariate function. We extend the analytic power and minimum-sample-size-necessary (MSSN) formulas for 2 categorical data-based tests (genotype, linear trend test [LTT]) of genetic association to the pleiotropic model. We further compare the MSSN of the genotype test and the LTT with that of a multivariate ANOVA (Pillai). We approximate the MSSN for statistics by linear models using a factorial design and ANOVA. With ANOVA decomposition, we determine which factors most significantly change the power/MSSN for all statistics. Finally, we determine which test statistics have the smallest MSSN. In this work, MSSN calculations are for 2 traits (bivariate distributions) only (for illustrative purposes). We note that the calculations may be extended to address any number of traits. Our key findings are that the genotype test usually has lower MSSN requirements than the LTT. More inclusive thresholds (top/bottom 25% vs. top/bottom 10%) have higher sample size requirements. The Pillai test has a much larger MSSN than both the genotype test and the LTT, as a result of sample selection. With these formulas, researchers can specify how many subjects they must collect to localize genes for pleiotropic phenotypes. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Characteristics of deaths occurring in hospitalised children: changing trends

PubMed Central

Ramnarayan, Padmanabhan; Craig, Finella; Petros, Andy; Pierce, Christine

2007-01-01

Background Despite a gradual shift in the focus of medical care among terminally ill patients to a palliative model, studies suggest that many children with life‐limiting chronic illnesses continue to die in hospital after prolonged periods of inpatient admission and mechanical ventilation. Objectives To (1) examine the characteristics and location of death among hospitalised children, (2) investigate yearwise trends in these characteristics and (3) test the hypothesis that professional ethical guidance from the UK Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (1997) would lead to significant changes in the characteristics of death among hospitalised children. Methods Routine administrative data from one large tertiary‐level UK children's hospital was examined over a 7‐year period (1997–2004) for children aged 0–18 years. Demographic details, location of deaths, source of admission (within hospital vs external), length of stay and final diagnoses (International Classification of Diseases‐10 codes) were studied. Statistical significance was tested by the Kruskal–Wallis analysis of ranks and median test (non‐parametric variables), χ2 test (proportions) and Cochran–Armitage test (linear trends). Results Of the 1127 deaths occurring in hospital over the 7‐year period, the majority (57.7%) were among infants. The main diagnoses at death included congenital malformations (22.2%), perinatal diseases (18.1%), cardiovascular disorders (14.9%) and neoplasms (12.4%). Most deaths occurred in an intensive care unit (ICU) environment (85.7%), with a significant increase over the years (80.1% in 1997 to 90.6% in 2004). There was a clear increase in the proportion of admissions from in‐hospital among the ICU cohort (14.8% in 1998 to 24.8% in 2004). Infants with congenital malformations and perinatal conditions were more likely to die in an ICU (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.65 to 3.55), and older children with malignancy outside the ICU (OR 6.5, 95% CI 4.4 to 9.6). Children stayed for a median of 13 days (interquartile range 4.0–23.25 days) on a hospital ward before being admitted to an ICU where they died. Conclusions A greater proportion of hospitalised children are dying in an ICU environment. Our experience indicates that professional ethical guidance by itself may be inadequate in reversing the trends observed in this study. PMID:17470499

Quantile regression models of animal habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2003-01-01

Typically, all factors that limit an organism are not measured and included in statistical models used to investigate relationships with their environment. If important unmeasured variables interact multiplicatively with the measured variables, the statistical models often will have heterogeneous response distributions with unequal variances. Quantile regression is an approach for estimating the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model, providing a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Chapter 1 introduces quantile regression and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models. Chapter 2 evaluates performance of quantile rankscore tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). A permutation F test maintained better Type I errors than the Chi-square T test for models with smaller n, greater number of parameters p, and more extreme quantiles τ. Both versions of the test required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when there was heterogeneity under the alternative model. An example application related trout densities to stream channel width:depth. Chapter 3 evaluates a drop in dispersion, F-ratio like permutation test for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). Chapter 4 simulates from a large (N = 10,000) finite population representing grid areas on a landscape to demonstrate various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable (spatially and not spatially structured). Depending on whether interactions of the measured habitat and unmeasured variable were negative (interference interactions) or positive (facilitation interactions), either upper (τ > 0.5) or lower (τ < 0.5) quantile regression parameters were less biased than mean rate parameters. Sampling (n = 20 - 300) simulations demonstrated that confidence intervals constructed by inverting rankscore tests provided valid coverage of these biased parameters. Quantile regression was used to estimate effects of physical habitat resources on a bivalve mussel (Macomona liliana) in a New Zealand harbor by modeling the spatial trend surface as a cubic polynomial of location coordinates.

Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

PubMed

Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

2016-04-01

To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (<2 h/d; OR per year=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·06). For daily vegetable consumption a non-linear negative trend was observed (school year 2012-2013 v. 2006-2007: OR=0·90; 95 % CI 0·80, 1·00). Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (P<0·001), as were time trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (P<0·001). The increase in positive screen-time behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

Use of Statistical Analysis of Acoustic Emission Data on Carbon-Epoxy COPV Materials-of-Construction for Enhanced Felicity Ratio Onset Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Arick Reed A.; Johnson, Kenneth L.; Nichols, Charles T.; Saulsberry, Regor L.; Waller, Jess M.

2012-01-01

Broadband modal acoustic emission (AE) data were acquired during intermittent load hold tensile test profiles on Toray T1000G carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy (C/Ep) single tow specimens. A novel trend seeking statistical method to determine the onset of significant AE was developed, resulting in more linear decreases in the Felicity ratio (FR) with load, potentially leading to more accurate failure prediction. The method developed uses an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. Comparison of the EWMA with previously used FR onset methods, namely the discrete (n), mean (n (raised bar)), normalized (n%) and normalized mean (n(raised bar)%) methods, revealed the EWMA method yields more consistently linear FR versus load relationships between specimens. Other findings include a correlation between AE data richness and FR linearity based on the FR methods discussed in this paper, and evidence of premature failure at lower than expected loads. Application of the EWMA method should be extended to other composite materials and, eventually, composite components such as composite overwrapped pressure vessels. Furthermore, future experiments should attempt to uncover the factors responsible for infant mortality in C/Ep strands.

TRENDS: The aeronautical post-test database management system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bjorkman, W. S.; Bondi, M. J.

1990-01-01

TRENDS, an engineering-test database operating system developed by NASA to support rotorcraft flight tests, is described. Capabilities and characteristics of the system are presented, with examples of its use in recalling and analyzing rotorcraft flight-test data from a TRENDS database. The importance of system user-friendliness in gaining users' acceptance is stressed, as is the importance of integrating supporting narrative data with numerical data in engineering-test databases. Considerations relevant to the creation and maintenance of flight-test database are discussed and TRENDS' solutions to database management problems are described. Requirements, constraints, and other considerations which led to the system's configuration are discussed and some of the lessons learned during TRENDS' development are presented. Potential applications of TRENDS to a wide range of aeronautical and other engineering tests are identified.

Step responses of a torsional system with multiple clearances: Study of vibro-impact phenomenon using experimental and computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oruganti, Pradeep Sharma; Krak, Michael D.; Singh, Rajendra

2018-01-01

Recently Krak and Singh (2017) proposed a scientific experiment that examined vibro-impacts in a torsional system under a step down excitation and provided preliminary measurements and limited non-linear model studies. A major goal of this article is to extend the prior work with a focus on the examination of vibro-impact phenomena observed under step responses in a torsional system with one, two or three controlled clearances. First, new measurements are made at several locations with a higher sampling frequency. Measured angular accelerations are examined in both time and time-frequency domains. Minimal order non-linear models of the experiment are successfully constructed, using piecewise linear stiffness and Coulomb friction elements; eight cases of the generic system are examined though only three are experimentally studied. Measured and predicted responses for single and dual clearance configurations exhibit double sided impacts and time varying periods suggest softening trends under the step down torque. Non-linear models are experimentally validated by comparing results with new measurements and with those previously reported. Several metrics are utilized to quantify and compare the measured and predicted responses (including peak to peak accelerations). Eigensolutions and step responses of the corresponding linearized models are utilized to better understand the nature of the non-linear dynamic system. Finally, the effect of step amplitude on the non-linear responses is examined for several configurations, and hardening trends are observed in the torsional system with three clearances.

Time Trends and Geographical Distribution of Childhood Leukaemia in Basrah, Iraq, from 2004 to 2009

PubMed Central

Alrudainy, Laith A; Hassan, Jenan G; Salih, Hussam M; Abbas, Mohammed K; Majeed, Athar AS

2011-01-01

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the incidence and trend of childhood leukaemia in Basrah. Methods: This was a hospital-based cancer registry study carried out at the Pediatric Oncology Ward, Maternity & Children’s Hospital and other institutes in Basrah, Iraq. All children with leukaemia, aged 0 to 14 years diagnosed and registered in Basrah from January 2004 to December 2009 were included in the study. Their records were retrieved and studied. The pattern of childhood leukaemia by year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, morphological subtypes, and geographical distribution was analysed. Rates of childhood leukaemia over time were calculated for six years using standard linear regression. Results: The total number of cases of childhood leukaemia was 181. The number of cases ranged from 21 in year 1, to 31 in the final year reaching a peak of 39 in 2006. Leukaemia rates did not change over the study period (test for trend was not significant, P = 0.81). The trend line shows a shift towards younger children (less than 5 years). The commonest types of leukaemia were acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), then acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and finally chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). Conclusion: Annual rates of childhood leukaemia in Basrah were similar to those in other countries with a trend towards younger children. This raises the question about the effect of environmental catastrophes in the alteration of some specific rates of childhood leukaemia, rather than the overall incidence rate. There is a need for further epidemiological studies to understand the aetiology of childhood leukaemia in Basrah. PMID:21969893

Health, behavioral, cognitive, and social correlates of breakfast skipping among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods.

PubMed

Smith, Kylie J; McNaughton, Sarah A; Cleland, Verity J; Crawford, David; Ball, Kylie

2013-11-01

Breakfast skipping is a potentially modifiable behavior that has negative effects on health and is socioeconomically patterned. This study aimed to examine the intrapersonal (health, behavioral, and cognitive) and social factors associated with breakfast skipping. Nonpregnant women (n = 4123) aged 18-45 y from socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods throughout Victoria, Australia, completed a postal questionnaire. Sociodemographic characteristics, diet, physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and cognitive and social factors were assessed by self-report. Breakfast skipping was defined in 2 ways: 1) "rarely/never" eating breakfast (n = 498) and 2) eating breakfast ≤2 d/wk (includes those who rarely/never ate breakfast; n = 865). Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence ratios and linear trends, adjusting for covariates. The P values for linear trends are reported below. Compared with breakfast consumers, women who reported rarely/never eating breakfast tended to have poorer self-rated health (P-trend < 0.001), be current smokers (P-trend < 0.001), pay less attention to health (P-trend < 0.001), not prioritize their own healthy eating when busy looking after their family (P-trend < 0.001), have less nutrition knowledge (P-trend < 0.001), and a lower proportion were trying to control their weight (P-trend < 0.020). When breakfast skipping was defined as eating breakfast ≤2 d/wk, additional associations were found for having lower leisure-time physical activity (P-trend = 0.012) and less self-efficacy for eating a healthy diet (P-trend < 0.043). In conclusion, a range of intrapersonal and social factors were significantly associated with breakfast skipping among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Acknowledging the cross-sectional design and need for causal confirmation, programs that aim to promote breakfast consumption in this population group should consider targeting family-related barriers to healthy eating and nutrition knowledge.

Recent Research Trends in Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, William M.; Sundberg, Norman D.

1976-01-01

As measured by references in Buros' Mental Measurement Yearbooks, recent trends in test research are measured. The 24 tests with the greatest number of publications are identified, and growth trends of 5 major tests are shown. (Author/DEP)

SU-D-207B-07: Development of a CT-Radiomics Based Early Response Prediction Model During Delivery of Chemoradiation Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klawikowski, S; Christian, J; Schott, D

Purpose: Pilot study developing a CT-texture based model for early assessment of treatment response during the delivery of chemoradiation therapy (CRT) for pancreatic cancer. Methods: Daily CT data acquired for 24 pancreatic head cancer patients using CT-on-rails, during the routine CT-guided CRT delivery with a radiation dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions, were analyzed. The pancreas head was contoured on each daily CT. Texture analysis was performed within the pancreas head contour using a research tool (IBEX). Over 1300 texture metrics including: grey level co-occurrence, run-length, histogram, neighborhood intensity difference, and geometrical shape features were calculated for each dailymore » CT. Metric-trend information was established by finding the best fit of either a linear, quadratic, or exponential function for each metric value verses accumulated dose. Thus all the daily CT texture information was consolidated into a best-fit trend type for a given patient and texture metric. Linear correlation was performed between the patient histological response vector (good, medium, poor) and all combinations of 23 patient subgroups (statistical jackknife) determining which metrics were most correlated to response and repeatedly reliable across most patients. Control correlations against CT scanner, reconstruction kernel, and gated/nongated CT images were also calculated. Euclidean distance measure was used to group/sort patient vectors based on the data of these trend-response metrics. Results: We found four specific trend-metrics (Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1InverseDiffMomentNorm, Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1InverseDiffNorm, Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1 Homogeneity2, and Intensity Direct Local StdMean) that were highly correlated with patient response and repeatedly reliable. Our four trend-metric model successfully ordered our pilot response dataset (p=0.00070). We found no significant correlation to our control parameters: gating (p=0.7717), scanner (p=0.9741), and kernel (p=0.8586). Conclusion: We have successfully created a CT-texture based early treatment response prediction model using the CTs acquired during the delivery of chemoradiation therapy for pancreatic cancer. Future testing is required to validate the model with more patient data.« less

A statistical test to show negligible trend

Treesearch

Philip M. Dixon; Joseph H.K. Pechmann

2005-01-01

The usual statistical tests of trend are inappropriate for demonstrating the absence of trend. This is because failure to reject the null hypothesis of no trend does not prove that null hypothesis. The appropriate statistical method is based on an equivalence test. The null hypothesis is that the trend is not zero, i.e., outside an a priori specified equivalence region...

Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Chou, Ming-Dah; Lindzen, Richard S.; Hou, Arthur Y.

2001-01-01

In his comment on Lindzen et al., Harrison found that the amount of high-level clouds, A, and the sea-surface temperature beneath clouds, T, averaged over a large oceanic domain in the western Pacific have secular linear trends of opposite signs over a period of 20 months. He found that when the linear trends are subtracted from the data, the correlation between the residual A and T is much reduced. His estimates of the confidence levels for the correlation indicate, moreover, that this correlation is not statistically significant. The domain-averaged A and, to a lesser degree, T, have distinct intra-seasonal and seasonal variations. These variations are influenced by the large-scale wind and temperature distributions and by the seasonal variation of insolation. To separate the local effect from the effect of slowly changing large-scale conditions, rather than subtracting 20-month linear trends from the series, which has the potential to spuriously extrapolate intra-seasonal and seasonal variations to even longer time scales, we subtracted 30-day running means of A and T from each time series; in effect, the data were high-pass filtered. The number of points (days), N, is reduced by this process from the original value of 510 to 480.

Signal processing methods for in-situ creep specimen monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guers, Manton J.; Tittmann, Bernhard R.

2018-04-01

Previous work investigated using guided waves for monitoring creep deformation during accelerated life testing. The basic objective was to relate observed changes in the time-of-flight to changes in the environmental temperature and specimen gage length. The work presented in this paper investigated several signal processing strategies for possible application in the in-situ monitoring system. Signal processing methods for both group velocity (wave-packet envelope) and phase velocity (peak tracking) time-of-flight were considered. Although the Analytic Envelope found via the Hilbert transform is commonly applied for group velocity measurements, erratic behavior in the indicated time-of-flight was observed when this technique was applied to the in-situ data. The peak tracking strategies tested had generally linear trends, and tracking local minima in the raw waveform ultimately showed the most consistent results.

An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek

2017-09-01

Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω˙Ω¨-1 = C(tf - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.

Feasibility and acceptability of cell phone diaries to measure HIV risk behavior among female sex workers.

PubMed

Roth, Alexis M; Hensel, Devon J; Fortenberry, J Dennis; Garfein, Richard S; Gunn, Jayleen K L; Wiehe, Sarah E

2014-12-01

Individual, social, and structural factors affecting HIV risk behaviors among female sex workers (FSWs) are difficult to assess using retrospective surveys methods. To test the feasibility and acceptability of cell phone diaries to collect information about sexual events, we recruited 26 FSWs in Indianapolis, Indiana (US). Over 4 weeks, FSWs completed twice daily digital diaries about their mood, drug use, sexual interactions, and daily activities. Feasibility was assessed using repeated measures general linear modeling and descriptive statistics examined event-level contextual information and acceptability. Of 1,420 diaries expected, 90.3 % were completed by participants and compliance was stable over time (p > .05 for linear trend). Sexual behavior was captured in 22 % of diaries and participant satisfaction with diary data collection was high. These data provide insight into event-level factors impacting HIV risk among FSWs. We discuss implications for models of sexual behavior and individually tailored interventions to prevent HIV in this high-risk group.

Examining Factors Affecting Science Achievement of Hong Kong in PISA 2006 Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Terence Yuk Ping; Lau, Kwok Chi

2014-01-01

This study uses hierarchical linear modeling to examine the influence of a range of factors on the science performances of Hong Kong students in PISA 2006. Hong Kong has been consistently ranked highly in international science assessments, such as Programme for International Student Assessment and Trends in International Mathematics and Science…

Relationships among Instructional Practices, Students' Motivational Beliefs and Science Achievement in Taiwan Using Hierarchical Linear Modelling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liou, Pey-Yan; Ho, Hsin-Ning Jessie

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine students' perceptions of instructional practices in the classroom, and to further investigate the relationships among instructional practices, motivational beliefs and science achievement. Hierarchical linear modelling was utilised to examine the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2007…

Casas Muertas and Oficina No. 1: internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905-1945.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2007-06-01

To compare internal migration and temperature as factors behind the decreasing trend in malaria deaths observed in Venezuela from 1905 to 1945, linear autoregressive models are fitted to a historical dataset. The model that only incorporates internal migration is the one with the best fit. The decreasing trend in malaria deaths in Venezuela, from 1905 to 1945, is not explained by a trend in mean annual temperature, but it is associated with an increase in the proportion of population in the Capital District, during a time period when the area was the principal attractor of migrations within the country.

Comparison of Standard Automated Perimetry, Short-Wavelength Automated Perimetry, and Frequency-Doubling Technology Perimetry to Monitor Glaucoma Progression

PubMed Central

Hu, Rongrong; Wang, Chenkun; Gu, Yangshun; Racette, Lyne

2016-01-01

Abstract Detection of progression is paramount to the clinical management of glaucoma. Our goal is to compare the performance of standard automated perimetry (SAP), short-wavelength automated perimetry (SWAP), and frequency-doubling technology (FDT) perimetry in monitoring glaucoma progression. Longitudinal data of paired SAP, SWAP, and FDT from 113 eyes with primary open-angle glaucoma enrolled in the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study or the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study were included. Data from all tests were expressed in comparable units by converting the sensitivity from decibels to unitless contrast sensitivity and by expressing sensitivity values in percent of mean normal based on an independent dataset of 207 healthy eyes with aging deterioration taken into consideration. Pointwise linear regression analysis was performed and 3 criteria (conservative, moderate, and liberal) were used to define progression and improvement. Global mean sensitivity (MS) was fitted with linear mixed models. No statistically significant difference in the proportion of progressing and improving eyes was observed across tests using the conservative criterion. Fewer eyes showed improvement on SAP compared to SWAP and FDT using the moderate criterion; and FDT detected less progressing eyes than SAP and SWAP using the liberal criterion. The agreement between these test types was poor. The linear mixed model showed a progressing trend of global MS overtime for SAP and SWAP, but not for FDT. The baseline estimate of SWAP MS was significantly lower than SAP MS by 21.59% of mean normal. FDT showed comparable estimation of baseline MS with SAP. SWAP and FDT do not appear to have significant benefits over SAP in monitoring glaucoma progression. SAP, SWAP, and FDT may, however, detect progression in different glaucoma eyes. PMID:26886602

Characterizing trends in fruit and vegetable intake in the US by self-report and by supply-and-disappearance data: 2001-2014

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Objective: To examine the comparability of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake data in the US from 2001-2014 between data acquired from two national data collection programs. Design: Cross-sectional analysis. Linear regression models estimated trends in daily per-capita intake of total F&V. Pooled di...

Nearest-neighbor thermodynamics of deoxyinosine pairs in DNA duplexes

PubMed Central

Watkins, Norman E.; SantaLucia, John

2005-01-01

Nearest-neighbor thermodynamic parameters of the ‘universal pairing base’ deoxyinosine were determined for the pairs I·C, I·A, I·T, I·G and I·I adjacent to G·C and A·T pairs. Ultraviolet absorbance melting curves were measured and non-linear regression performed on 84 oligonucleotide duplexes with 9 or 12 bp lengths. These data were combined with data for 13 inosine containing duplexes from the literature. Multiple linear regression was used to solve for the 32 nearest-neighbor unknowns. The parameters predict the Tm for all sequences within 1.2°C on average. The general trend in decreasing stability is I·C > I·A > I·T ≈ I· G > I·I. The stability trend for the base pair 5′ of the I·X pair is G·C > C·G > A·T > T·A. The stability trend for the base pair 3′ of I·X is the same. These trends indicate a complex interplay between H-bonding, nearest-neighbor stacking, and mismatch geometry. A survey of 14 tandem inosine pairs and 8 tandem self-complementary inosine pairs is also provided. These results may be used in the design of degenerate PCR primers and for degenerate microarray probes. PMID:16264087

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is increasing in Norway: a time series analysis of reported MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus cases, 1997-2010.

PubMed

Moxnes, John F; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina E Fossum

2013-01-01

Accurate estimates of the incidence and prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are needed to inform public health policies. In Norway, where both MRSA infection and carriage are notifiable conditions, the reported incidence of MRSA is slowly increasing. However, the proportion of MRSA in relation to all S. aureus isolates is unknown, making it difficult to determine if the rising incidence is real or an artifact of an increasing number of tests performed. To characterize recent trends in MRSA infections and obtain a more complete understanding of the MRSA level in Norway. All reported cases of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) from Oslo County (1997-2010) and Health Region East (2008-2008), representing approximately 11% and 36% of the Norwegian population, respectively, were analyzed using a stochastic time series analysis to characterize trends. In Oslo County, the proportion of methicillin-resistant cases increased from 0.73% to 3.78% during the study period and was well modeled by an exponential growth with a doubling constant of 5.7 years (95% CI 4.5-7.4 years). In Health Region East, the proportion of MRSA cases increased from 0.4% to 2.1% from 2002 to 2008, with a best-fitting linear increase of 0.26% (95% CI 0.21-0.30%) per year. In both cases, the choice of a linear or exponential model for the time trend produced only marginally different model fits. We found no significant changes due to revised national MRSA guidelines published in June 2009. Significant variations in the increasing time trend were observed in the five hospitals within the region. The yearly reported incidence of MSSA was relatively stable in both study areas although we found seasonal patterns with peaks in August. The level of MRSA is increasing in Norway, and the proportion of methicillin resistance in all S. aureus isolates are higher than the reported proportion of MRSA in invasive infections.

Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Is Increasing in Norway: A Time Series Analysis of Reported MRSA and Methicillin-Sensitive S. aureus Cases, 1997–2010

PubMed Central

Moxnes, John F.; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina E. Fossum

2013-01-01

Background Accurate estimates of the incidence and prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are needed to inform public health policies. In Norway, where both MRSA infection and carriage are notifiable conditions, the reported incidence of MRSA is slowly increasing. However, the proportion of MRSA in relation to all S. aureus isolates is unknown, making it difficult to determine if the rising incidence is real or an artifact of an increasing number of tests performed. Aim To characterize recent trends in MRSA infections and obtain a more complete understanding of the MRSA level in Norway. Methods All reported cases of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) from Oslo County (1997–2010) and Health Region East (2008–2008), representing approximately 11% and 36% of the Norwegian population, respectively, were analyzed using a stochastic time series analysis to characterize trends. Results In Oslo County, the proportion of methicillin-resistant cases increased from 0.73% to 3.78% during the study period and was well modeled by an exponential growth with a doubling constant of 5.7 years (95% CI 4.5–7.4 years). In Health Region East, the proportion of MRSA cases increased from 0.4% to 2.1% from 2002 to 2008, with a best-fitting linear increase of 0.26% (95% CI 0.21–0.30%) per year. In both cases, the choice of a linear or exponential model for the time trend produced only marginally different model fits. We found no significant changes due to revised national MRSA guidelines published in June 2009. Significant variations in the increasing time trend were observed in the five hospitals within the region. The yearly reported incidence of MSSA was relatively stable in both study areas although we found seasonal patterns with peaks in August. Conclusion The level of MRSA is increasing in Norway, and the proportion of methicillin resistance in all S. aureus isolates are higher than the reported proportion of MRSA in invasive infections. PMID:23936442

The relationship between psychological distress and baseline sports-related concussion testing.

PubMed

Bailey, Christopher M; Samples, Hillary L; Broshek, Donna K; Freeman, Jason R; Barth, Jeffrey T

2010-07-01

This study examined the effect of psychological distress on neurocognitive performance measured during baseline concussion testing. Archival data were utilized to examine correlations between personality testing and computerized baseline concussion testing. Significantly correlated personality measures were entered into linear regression analyses, predicting baseline concussion testing performance. Suicidal ideation was examined categorically. Athletes underwent testing and screening at a university athletic training facility. Participants included 47 collegiate football players 17 to 19 years old, the majority of whom were in their first year of college. Participants were administered the Concussion Resolution Index (CRI), an internet-based neurocognitive test designed to monitor and manage both at-risk and concussed athletes. Participants took the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI), a self-administered inventory designed to measure clinical syndromes, treatment considerations, and interpersonal style. Scales and subscales from the PAI were utilized to determine the influence psychological distress had on the CRI indices: simple reaction time, complex reaction time, and processing speed. Analyses revealed several significant correlations among aspects of somatic concern, depression, anxiety, substance abuse, and suicidal ideation and CRI performance, each with at least a moderate effect. When entered into a linear regression, the block of combined psychological symptoms accounted for a significant amount of baseline CRI performance, with moderate to large effects (r = 0.23-0.30). When examined categorically, participants with suicidal ideation showed significantly slower simple reaction time and complex reaction time, with a similar trend on processing speed. Given the possibility of obscured concussion deficits after injury, implications for premature return to play, and the need to target psychological distress outright, these findings heighten the clinical importance of screening for psychological distress during baseline and post-injury concussion evaluations.

Personality and Gastric Cancer Screening Attendance: 
A Cross-Sectional Analysis from the Miyagi Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Arai, Shizuha; Nakaya, Naoki; Kakizaki, Masako; Ohmori-Matsuda, Kaori; Shimazu, Taichi; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Fukao, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro

2009-01-01

Objective To determine the associations between personality subscales and attendance at gastric cancer screenings in Japan. Methods A total of 21,911 residents in rural Japan who completed a short form of the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised (EPQ-R) and a questionnaire on various health habits including the number of gastric cancer screenings attended were included in the primary analysis. We defined gastric cancer screening compliance as attendance at gastric cancer screening every year for the previous 5 years; all other patterns of attendance were defined as non-compliance. We defined gastric cancer screening visiting as attendance at 1 or more screenings during the previous 5 years; lack of attendance was defined as non-visiting. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of gastric cancer screening compliance and visiting according to 4 score levels that corresponded to the 4 EPQ-R subscales (extraversion, neuroticism, psychoticism, and lie). Result Extraversion had a significant linear, positive association with both compliance and visiting (trend, P < 0.001 for both). Neuroticism had a significant linear, inverse association with compliance (trend, P = 0.047), but not with visiting (trend, P = 0.21). Psychoticism had a significant linear, inverse association with both compliance and visiting (trend, P < 0.001 for both). Lie had no association with either compliance or visiting. Conclusion The personality traits of extraversion, neuroticism, and psychoticism were significantly associated with gastric cancer screening attendance. A better understanding of the association between personality and attendance could lead to the establishment of effective campaigns to motivate people to attend cancer screenings. PMID:19164872

Integration of altimetric lake levels and GRACE gravimetry over Africa: Inferences for terrestrial water storage change 2003-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, P.; Williams, S. D. P.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) change for 2003-2011 is estimated over Africa from GRACE gravimetric data. The signatures from change in water of the major lakes are removed by utilizing kernel functions with lake heights recovered from retracked ENVISAT satellite altimetry. In addition, the contribution of gravimetric change due to soil moisture and biomass is removed from the total GRACE signal by utilizing the GLDAS land surface model. The residual TWS time series, namely groundwater and the surface waters in rivers, wetlands, and small lakes, are investigated for trends and the seasonal cycle using linear regression. Typically, such analyses assume that the data are temporally uncorrelated but this has been shown to lead to erroneous inferences in related studies concerning the linear rate and acceleration. In this study, we utilize autocorrelation and investigate the appropriate stochastic model. The results show the proper distribution of TWS change and identify the spatial distribution of significant rates and accelerations. The effect of surface water in the major lakes is shown to contribute significantly to the trend and seasonal variation in TWS in the lake basin. Lake Volta, a managed reservoir in Ghana, is seen to have a contribution to the linear trend that is a factor of three greater than that of Lake Victoria despite having a surface area one-eighth of that of Lake Victoria. Analysis also shows the confidence levels of the deterministic trend and acceleration identifying areas where the signatures are most likely due to a physical deterministic cause and not simply stochastic variations.

Exploring stability of entropy analysis for signal with different trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yin; Li, Jin; Wang, Jun

2017-03-01

Considering the effects of environment disturbances and instrument systems, the actual detecting signals always are carrying different trends, which result in that it is difficult to accurately catch signals complexity. So choosing steady and effective analysis methods is very important. In this paper, we applied entropy measures-the base-scale entropy and approximate entropy to analyze signal complexity, and studied the effect of trends on the ideal signal and the heart rate variability (HRV) signals, that is, linear, periodic, and power-law trends which are likely to occur in actual signals. The results show that approximate entropy is unsteady when we embed different trends into the signals, so it is not suitable to analyze signal with trends. However, the base-scale entropy has preferable stability and accuracy for signal with different trends. So the base-scale entropy is an effective method to analyze the actual signals.

Analysis and generation of groundwater concentration time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crăciun, Maria; Vamoş, Călin; Suciu, Nicolae

2018-01-01

Concentration time series are provided by simulated concentrations of a nonreactive solute transported in groundwater, integrated over the transverse direction of a two-dimensional computational domain and recorded at the plume center of mass. The analysis of a statistical ensemble of time series reveals subtle features that are not captured by the first two moments which characterize the approximate Gaussian distribution of the two-dimensional concentration fields. The concentration time series exhibit a complex preasymptotic behavior driven by a nonstationary trend and correlated fluctuations with time-variable amplitude. Time series with almost the same statistics are generated by successively adding to a time-dependent trend a sum of linear regression terms, accounting for correlations between fluctuations around the trend and their increments in time, and terms of an amplitude modulated autoregressive noise of order one with time-varying parameter. The algorithm generalizes mixing models used in probability density function approaches. The well-known interaction by exchange with the mean mixing model is a special case consisting of a linear regression with constant coefficients.

Regional Kendall test for trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helsel, D.R.; Frans, L.M.

2006-01-01

Trends in environmental variables are often investigated within a study region at more than one site. At each site, a trend analysis determines whether a trend has occurred. Yet often also of interest is whether a consistent trend is evident throughout the entire region. This paper adapts the Seasonal Kendall trend test to determine whether a consistent regional trend occurs in environmental variables.

Analysis of single-degree-of-freedom piezoelectric energy harvester with stopper by incremental harmonic balance method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dan; Wang, Xiaoman; Cheng, Yuan; Liu, Shaogang; Wu, Yanhong; Chai, Liqin; Liu, Yang; Cheng, Qianju

2018-05-01

Piecewise-linear structure can effectively broaden the working frequency band of the piezoelectric energy harvester, and improvement of its research can promote the practical process of energy collection device to meet the requirements for powering microelectronic components. In this paper, the incremental harmonic balance (IHB) method is introduced for the complicated and difficult analysis process of the piezoelectric energy harvester to solve these problems. After obtaining the nonlinear dynamic equation of the single-degree-of-freedom piecewise-linear energy harvester by mathematical modeling and the equation is solved based on the IHB method, the theoretical amplitude-frequency curve of open-circuit voltage is achieved. Under 0.2 g harmonic excitation, a piecewise-linear energy harvester is experimentally tested by unidirectional frequency-increasing scanning. The results demonstrate that the theoretical and experimental amplitudes have the same trend, and the width of the working band with high voltage output are 4.9 Hz and 4.7 Hz, respectively, and the relative error is 4.08%. The open-output peak voltage are 21.53 V and 18.25 V, respectively, and the relative error is 15.23%. Since the theoretical value is consistent with the experimental results, the theoretical model and the incremental harmonic balance method used in this paper are suitable for solving single-degree-of-freedom piecewise-linear piezoelectric energy harvester and can be applied to further parameter optimized design.

Stress, sex, and plague: Patterns of developmental stress and survival in pre- and post-Black Death London.

PubMed

DeWitte, Sharon N

2018-01-01

Previous research revealed declines in survivorship in London before the Black Death (c. 1346-1353), and improvements in survivorship following the epidemic. These trends indicate that there were declines in general levels of health before the Black Death and improvements thereof afterwards. This study expands on previous research by examining whether changes in survivorship were consistent between the sexes, and how patterns of developmental stress markers changed before and after the Black Death. This study uses samples from London cemeteries dated to one of three periods: Early Pre-Black Death (1000-1200 AD, n = 255), Late Pre-Black Death (1200-1250 AD, n = 247), or Post-Black Death (1350-1540 AD n = 329). Temporal trends in survivorship are assessed via Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and trends in tibial length (as a proxy for stature) and linear enamel hypoplasia (LEH) are assessed using t-tests and Chi-square tests, respectively. Survivorship for both sexes decreased before the Black Death and increased afterwards. For males, LEH frequencies increased and stature decreased before the epidemic, and LEH declined and stature increased after the Black Death. For females, the only significant change with respect to developmental stress markers was a decrease in stature after the Black Death. These results might reflect variation between the sexes in sensitivity to stressors, the effects of nutrition on pubertal timing, disproportionate access to dietary resources for males in the aftermath of the Black Death, the disproportionate deaths of frail individuals during the epidemic, or some combination of these factors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Search for Mountain Waves in MLS Stratospheric Limb Radiances from the Winter Northern Hemisphere: Data Analysis and Global Mountain Wave Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-02-11

the general circulation of the middle atmosphere, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 323, 693–705. Anton , H. (2000), Elementary Linear Algebra ...Because the saturated radiances may depend slightly on tangent height as the limb path length decreases, a linear trend (described by parameters a and b...track days and interpolated onto the same limb-track orbits. The color bar scale for radiance variance is linear . (b) Digital elevations of northern

Summary and trend analysis of water-quality data for the Oakes Test Area, southeastern North Dakota, 1984-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.

2007-01-01

The Oakes Test Area is operated and maintained by the Garrison Diversion Conservancy District, under a cooperative agreement with the Bureau of Reclamation, to evaluate the effectiveness and environmental consequences of irrigation. As part of the evaluation, the Bureau of Reclamation collected water-quality samples from seven sites on the James River and the Oakes Test Area. The data were summarized and examined for trends in concentration. A nonparametric statistical test was used to test whether each concentration was increasing or decreasing with time for selected physical properties and constituents, and a trend slope was estimated for each constituent at each site. Trends were examined for two time periods, 1988-2004 and 1994-2004. Results varied by site and by constituent. All sites and all constituents tested had at least one statistically significant trend in the period 1988-2004. Sulfate, total dissolved solids, nitrate, and orthophosphate have significant positive trends at multiple sites with no significant negative trend at any site. Alkalinity and arsenic have single significant positive trends. Hardness, calcium, magnesium, sodium, sodium-adsorption ratio, potassium, and chloride have both significant positive and negative trends. Ammonia has a single significant negative trend. Fewer significant trends were identified in 1994-2004, and all but one were positive. The contribution to the James River from Oakes Test Area drainage appears to have little effect on water quality in the James River.

Evaluating collective significance of climatic trends: A comparison of methods on synthetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huth, Radan; Dubrovský, Martin

2017-04-01

The common approach to determine whether climatic trends are significantly different from zero is to conduct individual (local) tests at each single site (station or gridpoint). Whether the number of sites where the trends are significantly non-zero can or cannot occur by random, is almost never evaluated in trend studies. That is, collective (global) significance of trends is ignored. We compare three approaches to evaluating collective statistical significance of trends at a network of sites, using the following statistics: (i) the number of successful local tests (a successful test means here a test in which the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected); this is a standard way of assessing collective significance in various applications in atmospheric sciences; (ii) the smallest p-value among the local tests (Walker test); and (iii) the counts of positive and negative trends regardless of their magnitudes and local significance. The third approach is a new procedure that we propose; the rationale behind it is that it is reasonable to assume that the prevalence of one sign of trends at individual sites is indicative of a high confidence in the trend not being zero, regardless of the (in)significance of individual local trends. A potentially large amount of information contained in trends that are not locally significant, which are typically deemed irrelevant and neglected, is thus not lost and is retained in the analysis. In this contribution we examine the feasibility of the proposed way of significance testing on synthetic data, produced by a multi-site stochastic generator, and compare it with the two other ways of assessing collective significance, which are well established now. The synthetic dataset, mimicking annual mean temperature on an array of stations (or gridpoints), is constructed assuming a given statistical structure characterized by (i) spatial separation (density of the station network), (ii) local variance, (iii) temporal and spatial autocorrelations, and (iv) the trend magnitude. The probabilistic distributions of the three test statistics (null distributions) and critical values of the tests are determined from multiple realizations of the synthetic dataset, in which no trend is imposed at each site (that is, any trend is a result of random fluctuations only). The procedure is then evaluated by determining the type II error (the probability of a false detection of a trend) in the presence of a trend with a known magnitude, for which the synthetic dataset with an imposed spatially uniform non-zero trend is used. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for various combinations of the trend magnitude and spatial autocorrelation.

Meat intake and reproductive parameters among young men.

PubMed

Afeiche, Myriam C; Williams, Paige L; Gaskins, Audrey J; Mendiola, Jaime; Jørgensen, Niels; Swan, Shanna H; Chavarro, Jorge E

2014-05-01

In the United States, anabolic sex steroids are administered to cattle for growth promotion. There is concern regarding the reproductive consequences of this practice in men who eat beef. We investigated whether meat consumption was associated with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormone levels in young men. Semen samples were obtained from 189 men aged 18-22 years. Diet was assessed with a previously validated food frequency questionnaire. We used linear regression to analyze the cross-sectional associations of meat intake with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormones while adjusting for potential confounders. There was an inverse relation between processed red meat intake and total sperm count. The adjusted relative differences in total sperm counts for men in increasing quartiles of processed meat intake were 0 (ref), -3 (95% confidence interval = -67 to 37), -14 (-82 to 28), and -78 (-202 to -5) million (test for trend, P = 0.01). This association was strongest among men with abstinence time less than 2 days and was driven by a strong inverse relation between processed red meat intake and ejaculate volume (test for trend, P = 0.003). In our population of young men, processed meat intake was associated with lower total sperm count. We cannot distinguish whether this association is because of residual confounding by abstinence time or represents a true biological effect.

[Smoking, alcohol consumption and sleep time of industrial workers in the state of Paraná in Brazil].

PubMed

da Silva Timossi, Luciana; Leite, Neiva; Vecchi Osiecki, Ana Claudia; Fuzetti Cavazza, Jean; Cieslak, Fabrício; Osiecki, Raul

2014-01-01

This study was aimed at verifying smoking, alcohol consumption and sleep time associated with sociodemographic factors in physically active industrial workers in the state of Paraná in Brazil. Nine hundred and seven subjects volunteered (71% men and 29% women) to answer a questionnaire aimed at assessing their quality of life and health (QVS-80). The volunteers included 389 physically active workers. The Chi-square test and Chi-square test for linear trend were used for analyzing the data so collected (p<0.05). Physical activity (PA) prevalence was higher amongst men (49%) compared to women (22%) (p<0.01). Younger women (p<0.01) having a higher educational level (p<0.01) trended to engage in PA (p<0.01). Smoking was identified in 15% of the active workers; this was associated with age (p<0.05) and educational level (p<0.01) in male workers. Alcohol abuse was present in 8% of men and 3% of women (p<0.05). Inadequate sleep time was associated with increased age (p<0.01) in both genders and lower family income (p<0.05) in women. Physically active workers had lower tobacco and alcohol consumption compared to physically inactive workers in previous studies.

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

Trends in Disparity by Sex and Race/Ethnicity for the Leading Causes of Death in the United States-1999-2010.

PubMed

Chang, Man-Huei; Moonesinghe, Ramal; Athar, Heba M; Truman, Benedict I

2016-01-01

Temporal trends in disparities in the leading causes of death within and between US demographic subgroups indicate the need for and success of interventions to prevent premature death in vulnerable populations. Studies that report recent trends are limited and outdated. To describe temporal trends in disparities in death rates by sex and race/ethnicity for the 10 leading causes of death in the United States during 1999-2010. We used underlying cause of death data and population estimates from the National Vital Statistics System to calculate age-adjusted death rates for the 10 leading causes of death during 1999-2010. We measured absolute and relative disparities by sex and race/ethnicity for each cause and year of death; we used weighted linear regression to test for significance of trends over time. Of the 10 leading causes of death, age-adjusted death rates by sex and race/ethnicity declined during 1999-2010 for 6 causes and increased for 4 causes. But sex and racial/ethnic disparities between groups persisted for each year and cause of death. In the US population, the decreasing trend during 1999-2010 was greatest for cerebrovascular disease (-36.5%) and the increasing trend was greatest for Alzheimer disease (52.4%). For each sex and year, the disparity in death rates between Asian/Pacific Islanders (API) and other groups varied significantly by cause of death. In 2010, the API-non-Hispanic black disparity was largest for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, cerebrovascular diseases, and nephritis; the API-American Indian/Alaska Native disparity was largest for unintentional injury, diabetes mellitus, influenza and pneumonia, and suicide; and the API-non-Hispanic white disparity was largest for chronic lower respiratory diseases and Alzheimer disease. Public health practitioners can use these findings to improve policies and practices and to evaluate progress in eliminating disparities and their social determinants in vulnerable populations.

Authorship in Radiation Oncology: Proliferation Trends Over 30 Years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ojerholm, Eric, E-mail: eric.ojerholm@uphs.upenn.edu; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

Purpose: To investigate authorship trends in the radiation oncology literature. Methods and Materials: We examined the authorship credits of “original research articles” within 2 popular radiation oncology journals–International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics and Radiotherapy and Oncology–in 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2014. We compared the number of authors per publication during these 4 time periods using simple linear regression as a test for trend. We investigated additional author characteristics in a subset of articles. Results: A total of 2005 articles were eligible. The mean number of authors per publication rose from 4.3 in 1984 to 9.1 in 2014 (P<.001).more » On subset analysis of 400 articles, there was an increase in the percentage of multidisciplinary bylines (from 52% to 72%), multi-institutional bylines (from 20% to 53%), and publications with a trainee first author (from 16% to 56%) during the study period. Conclusions: The mean number of authors per publication has more than doubled over the last 30 years in the radiation oncology literature. Possible explanations include increasingly complex and collaborative research as well as honorary authorship. Explicit documentation of author contributions could help ensure that scientific work is credited according to accepted standards.« less

Trends in tobacco smoke exposure and blood lead levels among youths and adults in the United States: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2008.

PubMed

Richter, Patricia A; Bishop, Ellen E; Wang, Jiantong; Kaufmann, Rachel

2013-12-19

Tobacco smoke is a source of exposure to thousands of toxic chemicals including lead, a chemical of longstanding public health concern. We assessed trends in blood lead levels in youths and adults with cotinine-verified tobacco smoke exposure by using 10 years of data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Geometric mean levels of blood lead are presented for increasing levels of tobacco smoke exposure. Regression models for lead included age, race/ethnicity, poverty, survey year, sex, age of home, birth country, and, for adults, alcohol consumption. Lead levels were evaluated for smokers and nonsmokers on the basis of age of residence and occupation. Positive trend tests indicate that a linear relationship exists between smoke exposure and blood lead levels in youths and adults and that secondhand smoke exposure contributes to blood lead levels above the level caused by smoking. Youths with secondhand smoke exposure had blood lead levels suggestive of the potential for adverse cognitive outcomes. Despite remediation efforts in housing and the environment and declining smoking rates and secondhand smoke exposure in the United States, tobacco smoke continues to be a substantial source of exposure to lead in vulnerable populations and the population in general.

Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William M.

1988-01-01

One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications are presented in this standard. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. This document should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology: it generally connotes quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this document. The basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends along with relevant examples are presented.

Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yu; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Wu, Lei; Li, Guang; Song, Song

2017-11-01

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957-1989) and stage II (1990-2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were identified as the most dominant meteorological variables influencing annual ETo changes. The results are expected to assist water resource managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the research region.

An assessment of the feasibility of employing biochemical acidogenic potential tests for characterizing anaerobic biodegradability of raw and pretreated waste activated sludge.

PubMed

Kianmehr, Peiman; Parker, Wayne; Seto, Peter

2012-04-01

The potential to use the results of biochemical acid potential (BAP) tests to predict the ultimate digestibility of raw and pretreated waste activated sludge (WAS) was investigated. The ultimate methane production from biochemical methane potential (BMP) tests on raw and pretreated samples which spanned a range of biodegradability proved linearly related to the volatile fatty acid (VFA) and soluble chemical oxygen demand (COD) production in corresponding BAP tests. In addition, a linear relationship between NH4-N production in the BMP and BAP tests was observed. Despite the linear nature of the relationships, the ratio of the production of methane in the BMP tests to the production of VFAs in the BAP tests varied with the biodegradability of the sludge samples. Waste Activated Sludge samples with low digestibility had ultimate yields of CH4 that were greater than the VFA yields in BAP tests, whereas sludge samples with high digestibility had lower yields of CH4 than the corresponding VFA yields. This trend contrasted with the NH4 results, in which the yields in the BAP tests were consistently less than those observed in the BMP tests. It was hypothesized that the varying relationship between CH4 and VFA yields was because of the inhibition of anaerobic oxidation of long-chain fatty acids (LCFAs) in the BAP tests. Long-chain fatty acids would be converted to CH4 in BMP tests but produced as digestion intermediates in the BAP tests and were not measured as part of the VFA yield. Hydrogen and acetate were identified as the two most likely intermediates that would accumulate in the BAP tests (which would cause inhibition). A stoichiometric model to facilitate the development of an improved understanding of the biodegradation processes in the BAP and BMP tests was assembled. When the model was applied to the BAP tests the anaerobic oxidation of LCFAs and propionate and methanogenesis were excluded from the model. The model was employed to estimate the extent of degradation of lipids, carbohydrates, and proteins in the batch tests as a function of the ultimate biodegradability of the sludge samples. On the basis of model fitting, it was determined that the degradation of lipids in BMP tests decreased, whereas the degradation of carbohydrates and proteins increased as the digestibility of the sludge samples increased. The varying ratio of lipid to protein and carbohydrate degradability with increasing digestibility of the sludge samples describes the relationship between VFA production and CH4 production in the BAP, and BMP tests, respectively.

Life satisfaction and age: Dealing with underidentification in age-period-cohort models.

PubMed

de Ree, Joppe; Alessie, Rob

2011-07-01

Recent literature typically finds a U shaped relationship between life satisfaction and age. Age profiles, however, are not identified without forcing arbitrary restrictions on the cohort and/or time profiles. In this paper we report what can be identified about the relationship between life satisfaction and age without applying such restrictions. Also, we identify the restrictions needed to conclude that life satisfaction is U shaped in age. For the case of Germany, we find that the relationship between life satisfaction and age is indeed U shaped, but only under the untestable condition that the linear time trend is negative and that the linear trend across birth cohorts is practically flat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

PubMed

Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

Trends in non-stationary signal processing techniques applied to vibration analysis of wind turbine drive train - A contemporary survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uma Maheswari, R.; Umamaheswari, R.

2017-02-01

Condition Monitoring System (CMS) substantiates potential economic benefits and enables prognostic maintenance in wind turbine-generator failure prevention. Vibration Monitoring and Analysis is a powerful tool in drive train CMS, which enables the early detection of impending failure/damage. In variable speed drives such as wind turbine-generator drive trains, the vibration signal acquired is of non-stationary and non-linear. The traditional stationary signal processing techniques are inefficient to diagnose the machine faults in time varying conditions. The current research trend in CMS for drive-train focuses on developing/improving non-linear, non-stationary feature extraction and fault classification algorithms to improve fault detection/prediction sensitivity and selectivity and thereby reducing the misdetection and false alarm rates. In literature, review of stationary signal processing algorithms employed in vibration analysis is done at great extent. In this paper, an attempt is made to review the recent research advances in non-linear non-stationary signal processing algorithms particularly suited for variable speed wind turbines.

Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

A phenomenological biological dose model for proton therapy based on linear energy transfer spectra.

PubMed

Rørvik, Eivind; Thörnqvist, Sara; Stokkevåg, Camilla H; Dahle, Tordis J; Fjaera, Lars Fredrik; Ytre-Hauge, Kristian S

2017-06-01

The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of protons varies with the radiation quality, quantified by the linear energy transfer (LET). Most phenomenological models employ a linear dependency of the dose-averaged LET (LET d ) to calculate the biological dose. However, several experiments have indicated a possible non-linear trend. Our aim was to investigate if biological dose models including non-linear LET dependencies should be considered, by introducing a LET spectrum based dose model. The RBE-LET relationship was investigated by fitting of polynomials from 1st to 5th degree to a database of 85 data points from aerobic in vitro experiments. We included both unweighted and weighted regression, the latter taking into account experimental uncertainties. Statistical testing was performed to decide whether higher degree polynomials provided better fits to the data as compared to lower degrees. The newly developed models were compared to three published LET d based models for a simulated spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) scenario. The statistical analysis of the weighted regression analysis favored a non-linear RBE-LET relationship, with the quartic polynomial found to best represent the experimental data (P = 0.010). The results of the unweighted regression analysis were on the borderline of statistical significance for non-linear functions (P = 0.053), and with the current database a linear dependency could not be rejected. For the SOBP scenario, the weighted non-linear model estimated a similar mean RBE value (1.14) compared to the three established models (1.13-1.17). The unweighted model calculated a considerably higher RBE value (1.22). The analysis indicated that non-linear models could give a better representation of the RBE-LET relationship. However, this is not decisive, as inclusion of the experimental uncertainties in the regression analysis had a significant impact on the determination and ranking of the models. As differences between the models were observed for the SOBP scenario, both non-linear LET spectrum- and linear LET d based models should be further evaluated in clinically realistic scenarios. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Accuracy of five serologic tests for the follow up of Strongyloides stercoralis infection.

PubMed

Buonfrate, Dora; Sequi, Marco; Mejia, Rojelio; Cimino, Ruben O; Krolewiecki, Alejandro J; Albonico, Marco; Degani, Monica; Tais, Stefano; Angheben, Andrea; Requena-Mendez, Ana; Muñoz, José; Nutman, Thomas B; Bisoffi, Zeno

2015-02-01

Traditional faecal-based methods have poor sensitivity for the detection of S. stercoralis, therefore are inadequate for post-treatment evaluation of infected patients who should be carefully monitored to exclude the persistence of the infection. In a previous study, we demonstrated high accuracy of five serology tests for the screening and diagnosis of strongyloidiasis. Aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the same five tests for the follow up of patients infected with S. stercoralis. Retrospective study on anonymized, cryo-preserved samples available at the Centre for Tropical Diseases (Negrar, Verona, Italy). Samples were collected before and from 3 to 12 months after treatment. The samples were tested with two commercially-available ELISA tests (IVD, Bordier), two techniques based on a recombinant antigen (NIE-ELISA and NIE-LIPS) and one in-house IFAT. The results of each test were evaluated both in relation to the results of fecal examination and to those of a composite reference standard (classifying as positive a sample with positive stools and/or at least three positive serology tests). The associations between the independent variables age and time and the dependent variable value of serological test (for all five tests), were analyzed by linear mixed-effects regression model. A high proportion of samples demonstrated for each test a seroreversion or a relevant decline (optical density/relative light units halved or decrease of at least two titers for IFAT) at follow up, results confirmed by the linear mixed effects model that showed a trend to seroreversion over time for all tests. In particular, IVD-ELISA (almost 90% samples demonstrated relevant decline) and IFAT (almost 87%) had the best performance. Considering only samples with a complete negativization, NIE-ELISA showed the best performance (72.5% seroreversion). Serology is useful for the follow up of patients infected with S. stercoralis and determining test of cure.

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

Trend of brain tumor incidence by histological subtypes in Japan: estimation from the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan, 1973-1993.

PubMed

Kaneko, Satoshi; Nomura, Kazuhiro; Yoshimura, Takesumi; Yamaguchi, Naohito

2002-10-01

In order to estimate the risk of primary brain tumor (PBT), we attempted to estimate the national incidence rates of PBT by histological subtypes using the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan (BTR). The number of deaths due to PBT in a certain year is the sum of the deaths among patients diagnosed in different years. Registered cases in the BTR represent incident cases of PBT in the whole country multiplied by a cover rate. The cover rate is defined as the proportions of PBT cases that the Registry counts in relation to all the cases in the country in a given year. If the survival experience among the registered cases represents the survival experience of all cases, then the rate of registered deaths represents all deaths due to PBT in Japan. By this logic, we estimated the cover rates and incidence rates from 1973 to 1993 using the BTR and National Vital Statistics data. Our estimates showed three patterns of time trends: (1) a gradual linear increasing trend before the 1980s followed by a plateau (total PBT, gliomas, meningioma, and hemangioblastoma), (2) a trend with a step-up increase in the 1980s followed by a plateau (germ cell tumor and pituitary tumor), and (3) a linear increasing trend throughout the observation period with no plateau (malignant lymphoma and neurinoma). Furthermore, obvious sex differences in time trends were observed in rates of meningioma, germ cell tumor, and pituitary tumor. The results of this study demonstrated several distinctive patterns in time trends, which give us insight into the possible etiologies of brain tumors. Further epidemiological study is needed to elucidate these findings.

Power of tests for comparing trend curves with application to national immunization survey (NIS).

PubMed

Zhao, Zhen

2011-02-28

To develop statistical tests for comparing trend curves of study outcomes between two socio-demographic strata across consecutive time points, and compare statistical power of the proposed tests under different trend curves data, three statistical tests were proposed. For large sample size with independent normal assumption among strata and across consecutive time points, the Z and Chi-square test statistics were developed, which are functions of outcome estimates and the standard errors at each of the study time points for the two strata. For small sample size with independent normal assumption, the F-test statistic was generated, which is a function of sample size of the two strata and estimated parameters across study period. If two trend curves are approximately parallel, the power of Z-test is consistently higher than that of both Chi-square and F-test. If two trend curves cross at low interaction, the power of Z-test is higher than or equal to the power of both Chi-square and F-test; however, at high interaction, the powers of Chi-square and F-test are higher than that of Z-test. The measurement of interaction of two trend curves was defined. These tests were applied to the comparison of trend curves of vaccination coverage estimates of standard vaccine series with National Immunization Survey (NIS) 2000-2007 data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preliminary investigation of Zagros thrust-fold-belt deformation using SAR interferometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nilforoushan, Faramarz; Talbot, Christopher J.; Fielding, Eric J.

2005-01-01

Most of the Zagros deformation resulting from the convergence of Arabia and Eurasia takes place in the Southeast Zagros. To apply the SAR interferometry geodetic technique, a few ERS 1 & 2 satellite images were used to map this continuing deformation proven by GPS. Interferograms over 7 years show surprisingly high coherence. The unwrapped phases display a high correlation with topography reflecting atmospheric noise in addition to the desired tectonic signal. We estimate two simple linear trends and remove them from interferograms. The preliminary results show local uplift rates with a likely minimum of 1-2 mm/yr. These early crude results will be tested by more data in project No. 3174.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1999-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming.

RSCABS: An R package for performing the Rao-Scott Adjusted Cochran-Armitage trend test By Slices

EPA Science Inventory

RSCABS[3] (Rao-Scott adjusted Cochran-Armitage trend test By Slices) is a modification to the Rao-Scott[5] adjusted Cochran-Armitage trend test[1, 2] that allows for testing at each individual severity score often seen in histopathological data. The test was originally developed ...

Mortality Trends from 2003 to 2009 among Adolescents and Young Adults in Rural Western Kenya Using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Phillips-Howard, Penelope A.; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Hamel, Mary; Ackers, Marta; van Eijk, Anne M.; Orimba, Vincent; Hoog, Anja van’t; Beynon, Caryl; Vulule, John; Bellis, Mark A.; Slutsker, Laurence; deCock, Kevin; Breiman, Robert; Laserson, Kayla F.

2012-01-01

Background Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) are required. Methods and Findings This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15–19 years) and young adults (20–24 years), using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD) and non-communicable disease (NCD) causes. Linear trends from 2003 to 2009 were examined. In 2003, all-cause mortality rates of adolescents and young adults were 403 and 1,613 per 100,000 population, respectively, among females; and 217 and 716 per 100,000, respectively, among males. CD mortality rates among females and males 15–24 years were 500 and 191 per 100,000 (relative risk [RR] 2.6; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.7–4.0; p<0.001). NCD mortality rates in same aged females and males were similar (141 and 128 per 100,000, respectively; p = 0.76). By 2009, young adult female all-cause mortality rates fell 53% (χ2 for linear trend 30.4; p<0.001) and 61.5% among adolescent females (χ2 for linear trend 11.9; p<0.001). No significant CD mortality reductions occurred among males or for NCD mortality in either gender. By 2009, all-cause, CD, and NCD mortality rates were not significantly different between males and females, and among males, injuries equalled HIV as the top cause of death. Conclusions This study found significant reductions in adolescent and young adult female mortality rates, evidencing the effects of targeted public health programmes, however, all-cause and CD mortality rates among females remain alarmingly high. These data underscore the need to strengthen programmes and target strategies to reach both males and females, and to promote NCD as well as CD initiatives to reduce the mortality burden amongst both gender. PMID:23144796

Mountain plover population responses to black-tailed prairie dogs in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2005-01-01

We studied a local population of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, from 1995 to 2000 to estimate annual rates of recruitment rate (f) and population change (??). We used Pradel models, and we modeled ?? as a constant across years, as a linear time trend, as year-specific, and with an additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We modeled recruitment rate (f) as a function of area occupied by prairie dogs with the remaining model structure identical to the best model used to estimate ??. Our results indicated a strong negative effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on both ?? (slope coefficient on a log scale was -0.11; 95% CI was -0.17, -0.05) and f (slope coefficient on a logit scale was -0.23; 95% CI was -0.36, -0.10). We also found good evidence for a negative time trend on ??; this model had substantial weight (wi = 0.31), and the slope coefficient on the linear trend on a log scale was -0.10 (95% CI was -0.15, -0.05). Yearly estimates of ?? were >1 in all years except 1999, indicating that the population initially increased and then stabilized in the last year of the study. We found weak evidence for year-specific estimates of ??; the best model with year-specific estimates had a low weight (wi = 0.02), although the pattern of yearly estimates of ?? closely matched those estimated with a linear time trend. In southern Phillips County, the population trend of mountain plovers closely matched the trend in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs. Black-tailed prairie dogs declined sharply in the mid-1990s in response to an outbreak of sylvatic plague, but their numbers have steadily increased since 1996 in concert with increases in plovers. The results of this study (1) increase our understanding of the dynamics of this population and how they relate to the area occupied by prairie dogs, and (2) will be useful for planning plover conservation in a prairie dog ecosystem.

Linear Regression Quantile Mapping (RQM) - A new approach to bias correction with consistent quantile trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passow, Christian; Donner, Reik

2017-04-01

Quantile mapping (QM) is an established concept that allows to correct systematic biases in multiple quantiles of the distribution of a climatic observable. It shows remarkable results in correcting biases in historical simulations through observational data and outperforms simpler correction methods which relate only to the mean or variance. Since it has been shown that bias correction of future predictions or scenario runs with basic QM can result in misleading trends in the projection, adjusted, trend preserving, versions of QM were introduced in the form of detrended quantile mapping (DQM) and quantile delta mapping (QDM) (Cannon, 2015, 2016). Still, all previous versions and applications of QM based bias correction rely on the assumption of time-independent quantiles over the investigated period, which can be misleading in the context of a changing climate. Here, we propose a novel combination of linear quantile regression (QR) with the classical QM method to introduce a consistent, time-dependent and trend preserving approach of bias correction for historical and future projections. Since QR is a regression method, it is possible to estimate quantiles in the same resolution as the given data and include trends or other dependencies. We demonstrate the performance of the new method of linear regression quantile mapping (RQM) in correcting biases of temperature and precipitation products from historical runs (1959 - 2005) of the COSMO model in climate mode (CCLM) from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble relative to gridded E-OBS data of the same spatial and temporal resolution. A thorough comparison with established bias correction methods highlights the strengths and potential weaknesses of the new RQM approach. References: A.J. Cannon, S.R. Sorbie, T.Q. Murdock: Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping - How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes? Journal of Climate, 28, 6038, 2015 A.J. Cannon: Multivariate Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs - Matching Marginal Distributions and Inter-variable Dependence Structure. Journal of Climate, 29, 7045, 2016

Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1998-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickman, R. Edward; Gray, Bonnie J.

2010-01-01

Trends were determined in flow-adjusted values of selected water-quality characteristics measured year-round during water years 1998-2007 (October 1, 1997, through September 30, 2007) at 70 stations on New Jersey streams. Water-quality characteristics included in the analysis are dissolved oxygen, pH, total dissolved solids, total phosphorus, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. In addition, trend tests also were conducted on measurements of dissolved oxygen made only during the growing season, April to September. Nearly all the water-quality data analyzed were collected by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Ambient Surface-Water Quality Monitoring Network. Monotonic trends in flow-adjusted values of water quality were determined by use of procedures in the ESTREND computer program. A 0.05 level of significance was selected to indicate a trend. Results of tests were not reported if there were an insufficient number of measurements or insufficient number of detected concentrations, or if the results of the tests were affected by a change in data-collection methods. Trends in values of dissolved oxygen, pH, and total dissolved solids were identified using the Seasonal Kendall test. Trends or no trends in year-round concentrations of dissolved oxygen were determined for 66 stations; decreases at 4 stations and increases at 0 stations were identified. Trends or no trends in growing-season concentrations of dissolved oxygen were determined for 65 stations; decreases at 4 stations and increases at 4 stations were identified. Tests of pH values determined trends or no trends at 26 stations; decreases at 2 stations and increases at 3 stations were identified. Trends or no trends in total dissolved solids were reported for all 70 stations; decreases at 0 stations and increases at 24 stations were identified. Trends in total phosphorus, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite were identified by use of Tobit regression. Two sets of trend tests were conducted-one set with all measurements and a second set with all measurements except the most extreme outlier if one could be identified. The result of the test with all measurements is reported if the results of the two tests are equivalent. The result of the test without the outlier is reported if the results of the two tests are not equivalent. Trends or no trends in total phosphorus were determined for 69 stations. Decreases at 12 stations and increases at 5 stations were identified. Of the five stations on the Delaware River included in this study, decreases in concentration were identified at four. Trends or no trends in total organic nitrogen plus ammonia were determined for 69 stations. Decreases and increases in concentrations were identified at six and nine stations, respectively. Trends or no trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite were determined for 66 stations. Decreases and increases in concentration were identified at 4 and 19 stations, respectively.

Creep rupture testing of carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burton, Kathryn Anne

Carbon fiber is becoming more prevalent in everyday life. As such, it is necessary to have a thorough understanding of, not solely general mechanical properties, but of long-term material behavior. Creep rupture testing of carbon fiber is very difficult due to high strength and low strain to rupture properties. Past efforts have included testing upon strands, single tows and overwrapped pressure vessels. In this study, 1 inch wide, [0°/90°]s laminated composite specimens were constructed from fabric supplied by T.D. Williamson Inc. Specimen fabrication methods and gripping techniques were investigated and a method was developed to collect long term creep rupture behavior data. An Instron 1321 servo-hydraulic material testing machine was used to execute static strength and short term creep rupture tests. A hanging dead-weight apparatus was designed to perform long-term creep rupture testing. The testing apparatus, specimens, and specimen grips functioned well. Collected data exhibited a power law distribution and therefore, a linear trend upon a log strength-log time plot. Statistical analysis indicated the material exhibited slow degradation behavior, similar to previous studies, and could maintain a 50 year carrying capacity at 62% of static strength, approximately 45.7 ksi.

Self-potential response to periodic pumping test: a numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konosavsky, Pavel; Maineult, Alexis; Narbut, Mikhail; Titov, Konstantin

2017-09-01

We numerically model self-potential responses associated with periodic pumping test experiments by sequential calculation of the hydraulic response and the coupled electrical potential. We assume the pumping test experiments with a fully saturated confined aquifer. Application of different excitation functions leads to quasi-linear trends in electrical records whose direction and intensity depend on the form of the excitation function. The hydraulic response is phase shifted compared to the excitation function; the phase shift increases quasi-linearly with the distance from the pumping well. For the electrical signals, we investigated separately the cases of conducting and insulating casings of the pumping well. For the conducting casing the electrical signals are larger in magnitude than that for the insulating casing; they reproduce the drawdown signals in the pumping well at any distance from the well and exhibit any phase shift with the increased distance. For the insulating casing, the electrical signals are phase shifted and their shape depends on the distance from the pumping well. Three characteristic regimes were found for the phase shift, φ, with the increased distance and for various hydraulic diffusivity values. At small distances φ increases quasi-linearly; at intermediate distances φ attends the value of π/2 and stay about this value (for relatively small diffusivity values); and at large distances φ attends the value of π and, stay about this value at larger distances. This behaviour of the electrical signals can be explained by two electrical sources of reverse polarity. They are (i) linear, time independent, and located at the pumping interval of the well; and (ii) volumetric, time dependent, with maximum value located in the aquifer at the distance corresponding to maximum variation of the hydraulic head magnitude with time. We also model the variation of the amplitude and phase of the hydraulic and electrical signals with increased excitation function period, and we show the characteristic periods corresponding to transition of the periodic pumping test regime to the classical pumping test regime, when the excitation function is considered as the step-function. This transition depends on the distance from the pumping well and the hydraulic diffusivity value of aquifer. Finally, with this modelling of saturated flow we reproduced in sufficient details the field data previously obtained by Maineult et al.

Robustness of neuroprosthetic decoding algorithms.

PubMed

Serruya, Mijail; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas; Fellows, Matthew; Paninski, Liam; Donoghue, John

2003-03-01

We assessed the ability of two algorithms to predict hand kinematics from neural activity as a function of the amount of data used to determine the algorithm parameters. Using chronically implanted intracortical arrays, single- and multineuron discharge was recorded during trained step tracking and slow continuous tracking tasks in macaque monkeys. The effect of increasing the amount of data used to build a neural decoding model on the ability of that model to predict hand kinematics accurately was examined. We evaluated how well a maximum-likelihood model classified discrete reaching directions and how well a linear filter model reconstructed continuous hand positions over time within and across days. For each of these two models we asked two questions: (1) How does classification performance change as the amount of data the model is built upon increases? (2) How does varying the time interval between the data used to build the model and the data used to test the model affect reconstruction? Less than 1 min of data for the discrete task (8 to 13 neurons) and less than 3 min (8 to 18 neurons) for the continuous task were required to build optimal models. Optimal performance was defined by a cost function we derived that reflects both the ability of the model to predict kinematics accurately and the cost of taking more time to build such models. For both the maximum-likelihood classifier and the linear filter model, increasing the duration between the time of building and testing the model within a day did not cause any significant trend of degradation or improvement in performance. Linear filters built on one day and tested on neural data on a subsequent day generated error-measure distributions that were not significantly different from those generated when the linear filters were tested on neural data from the initial day (p<0.05, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test). These data show that only a small amount of data from a limited number of cortical neurons appears to be necessary to construct robust models to predict kinematic parameters for the subsequent hours. Motor-control signals derived from neurons in motor cortex can be reliably acquired for use in neural prosthetic devices. Adequate decoding models can be built rapidly from small numbers of cells and maintained with daily calibration sessions.

Length-dependent thermal transport in one-dimensional self-assembly of planar π-conjugated molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Hao; Xiong, Yucheng; Zu, Fengshuo; Zhao, Yang; Wang, Xiaomeng; Fu, Qiang; Jie, Jiansheng; Yang, Juekuan; Xu, Dongyan

2016-06-01

This work reports a thermal transport study in quasi-one-dimensional organic nanostructures self-assembled from conjugated planar molecules via π-π interactions. Thermal resistances of single crystalline copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) and perylenetetracarboxylic diimide (PTCDI) nanoribbons are measured via a suspended thermal bridge method. We experimentally observed the deviation from the linear length dependence for the thermal resistance of single crystalline β-phase CuPc nanoribbons, indicating possible subdiffusion thermal transport. Interestingly, a gradual transition to the linear length dependence is observed with the increase of the lateral dimensions of CuPc nanoribbons. The measured thermal resistance of single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons shows an increasing trend with temperature. However, the trend of temperature dependence of thermal resistance is reversed after electron irradiation, i.e., decreasing with temperature, indicating that the single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons become `amorphous'. Similar behavior is also observed for PTCDI nanoribbons after electron irradiation, proving that the electron beam can induce amorphization of single crystalline self-assembled nanostructures of planar π-conjugated molecules. The measured thermal resistance of the `amorphous' CuPc nanoribbon demonstrates a roughly linear dependence on the nanoribbon length, suggesting that normal diffusion dominates thermal transport.This work reports a thermal transport study in quasi-one-dimensional organic nanostructures self-assembled from conjugated planar molecules via π-π interactions. Thermal resistances of single crystalline copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) and perylenetetracarboxylic diimide (PTCDI) nanoribbons are measured via a suspended thermal bridge method. We experimentally observed the deviation from the linear length dependence for the thermal resistance of single crystalline β-phase CuPc nanoribbons, indicating possible subdiffusion thermal transport. Interestingly, a gradual transition to the linear length dependence is observed with the increase of the lateral dimensions of CuPc nanoribbons. The measured thermal resistance of single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons shows an increasing trend with temperature. However, the trend of temperature dependence of thermal resistance is reversed after electron irradiation, i.e., decreasing with temperature, indicating that the single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons become `amorphous'. Similar behavior is also observed for PTCDI nanoribbons after electron irradiation, proving that the electron beam can induce amorphization of single crystalline self-assembled nanostructures of planar π-conjugated molecules. The measured thermal resistance of the `amorphous' CuPc nanoribbon demonstrates a roughly linear dependence on the nanoribbon length, suggesting that normal diffusion dominates thermal transport. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr09043a

Adjusted regression trend test for a multicenter clinical trial.

PubMed

Quan, H; Capizzi, T

1999-06-01

Studies using a series of increasing doses of a compound, including a zero dose control, are often conducted to study the effect of the compound on the response of interest. For a one-way design, Tukey et al. (1985, Biometrics 41, 295-301) suggested assessing trend by examining the slopes of regression lines under arithmetic, ordinal, and arithmetic-logarithmic dose scalings. They reported the smallest p-value for the three significance tests on the three slopes for safety assessments. Capizzi et al. (1992, Biometrical Journal 34, 275-289) suggested an adjusted trend test, which adjusts the p-value using a trivariate t-distribution, the joint distribution of the three slope estimators. In this paper, we propose an adjusted regression trend test suitable for two-way designs, particularly for multicenter clinical trials. In a step-down fashion, the proposed trend test can be applied to a multicenter clinical trial to compare each dose with the control. This sequential procedure is a closed testing procedure for a trend alternative. Therefore, it adjusts p-values and maintains experimentwise error rate. Simulation results show that the step-down trend test is overall more powerful than a step-down least significant difference test.

Large-scale natural gradient tracer test in sand and gravel, Cape Cod, Massachusetts: 2. Analysis of spatial moments for a nonreactive tracer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garabedian, Stephen P.; LeBlanc, Dennis R.; Gelhar, Lynn W.; Celia, Michael A.

1991-01-01

A large-scale natural gradient tracer test was conducted to examine the transport of reactive and nonreactive tracers in a sand and gravel aquifer on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. As part of this test the transport of bromide, a nonreactive tracer, was monitored for about 280 m and quantified using spatial moments. The calculated mass of bromide for each sampling date varied between 85% and 105% of the injected mass using an estimated porosity of 0.39, and the center of mass moved at a nearly constant horizontal velocity of 0.42 m per day. A nonlinear change in the bromide longitudinal variance was observed during the first 26 m of travel distance, but afterward the variance followed a linear trend, indicating the longitudinal dispersivity had reached a constant value of 0.96 m. The transverse dispersivities were much smaller; transverse horizontal dispersivity was 1.8 cm, and transverse vertical dispersivity was about 1.5 mm.

On-Line Mu Method for Robust Flutter Prediction in Expanding a Safe Flight Envelope for an Aircraft Model Under Flight Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Richard C. (Inventor); Brenner, Martin J.

2001-01-01

A structured singular value (mu) analysis method of computing flutter margins has robust stability of a linear aeroelastic model with uncertainty operators (Delta). Flight data is used to update the uncertainty operators to accurately account for errors in the computed model and the observed range of aircraft dynamics of the aircraft under test caused by time-varying aircraft parameters, nonlinearities, and flight anomalies, such as test nonrepeatability. This mu-based approach computes predict flutter margins that are worst case with respect to the modeling uncertainty for use in determining when the aircraft is approaching a flutter condition and defining an expanded safe flight envelope for the aircraft that is accepted with more confidence than traditional methods that do not update the analysis algorithm with flight data by introducing mu as a flutter margin parameter that presents several advantages over tracking damping trends as a measure of a tendency to instability from available flight data.

Wear of Spur Gears Having a Dithering Motion and Lubricated with a Perfluorinated Polyether Grease

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy; Oswald, Fred; Handschuh, Robert

2007-01-01

Gear contact surface wear is one of the important failure modes for gear systems. Dedicated experiments are required to enable precise evaluations of gear wear for a particular application. The application of interest for this study required evaluation of wear of gears lubricated with a grade 2 perfluorinated polyether grease and having a dithering (rotation reversal) motion. Experiments were conducted using spur gears made from AISI 9310 steel. Wear was measured using a profilometer at test intervals encompassing 10,000 to 80,000 cycles of dithering motion. The test load level was 1.1 GPa maximum Hertz contact stress at the pitch-line. The trend of total wear as a function of test cycles was linear, and the wear depth rate was approximately 1.2 nm maximum wear depth per gear dithering cycle. The observed wear rate was about 600 times greater than the wear rate for the same gears operated at high speed and lubricated with oil.

The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

2017-11-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

Acceleration to failure in geophysical signals prior to laboratory rock failure and volcanic eruptions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I. G.; Bell, A. F.; Greenhough, J.; Heap, M. J.; Meredith, P. G.

2010-12-01

The nucleation processes that ultimately lead to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, rock bursts in mines, and landslides from cliff slopes are likely to be controlled at some scale by brittle failure of the Earth’s crust. In laboratory brittle deformation experiments geophysical signals commonly exhibit an accelerating trend prior to dynamic failure. Similar signals have been observed prior to volcanic eruptions, including volcano-tectonic earthquake event and moment release rates. Despite a large amount of effort in the search, no such statistically robust systematic trend is found prior to natural earthquakes. Here we describe the results of a suite of laboratory tests on Mount Etna Basalt and other rocks to examine the nature of the non-linear scaling from laboratory to field conditions, notably using laboratory ‘creep’ tests to reduce the boundary strain rate to conditions more similar to those in the field. Seismic event rate, seismic moment release rate and rate of porosity change show a classic ‘bathtub’ graph that can be derived from a simple damage model based on separate transient and accelerating sub-critical crack growth mechanisms, resulting from separate processes of negative and positive feedback in the population dynamics. The signals exhibit clear precursors based on formal statistical model tests using maximum likelihood techniques with Poisson errors. After correcting for the finite loading time of the signal, the results show a transient creep rate that decays as a classic Omori law for earthquake aftershocks, and remarkably with an exponent near unity, as commonly observed for natural earthquake sequences. The accelerating trend follows an inverse power law when fitted in retrospect, i.e. with prior knowledge of the failure time. In contrast the strain measured on the sample boundary shows a less obvious but still accelerating signal that is often absent altogether in natural strain data prior to volcanic eruptions. To test the forecasting power of such constitutive rules in prospective mode, we examine the forecast quality of several synthetic trials, by adding representative statistical fluctuations, due to finite real-time sampling effects, to an underlying accelerating trend. Metrics of forecast quality change systematically and dramatically with time. In particular the model accuracy increases, and the forecast bias decreases, as the failure time approaches.

Identification of Shifts and Trends in Hydrometric Data in Canada Based on Several Detection Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauzon, N.; Lence, B. J.

2004-05-01

This work proposes new detection tests based on the Kohonen neural network and on fuzzy c-means for the identification of shifts and trends in data sequences. Annual mean and maximum flow sequences are considered as application case, for they have often been considered for the study of shifts and trends in hydrologic data. In recent years, several studies for the identification of trends have been accomplished with North American hydrometric data, often making use of only one detection test. The assumption here is that one cannot rely on only one test, and consequently several are employed in this work. A total of eight tests are considered, four for shifts and four for trends. Four of these tests, two for shifts and two for trends, are conventional statistical tests that are regularly employed, while the other four are developed based on the Kohonen neural network and on fuzzy c-means. Data from a group of 40 hydrometric stations across Canada are assessed for the detection of shifts and trends in time periods of 30, 40 and 50 years. While the results obtained confirm the conclusions of previous studies performed on similar groups of data, they also indicate that each test may behave differently from one another. For example, one test may detect a trend in a given sequence while the other tests do not, or vice-versa. Thus, the strategy of using several tests ensures not only that they may confirm each others diagnostics but also may complement each other in the case of divergent diagnostics, with the possibility of improving the final conclusion on the detection of shifts and trends. Using artificial intelligence techniques for the construction of detection tests constitutes also a departure from the use of statistics, and a discussion in this work on complementary studies (i.e. detection on multivariate cases) highlights the possibility of enhanced performance by the artificial intelligence-based tests compared with conventional detection tests.

Trends in Stroke Incidence and 28-Day Case Fatality in a Nationwide Stroke Registry of a Multiethnic Asian Population.

PubMed

Tan, Chuen Seng; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk; Ng, Sheryl Hui Xian; Tan, Pei Zheng; Chan, Bernard P L; Tang, Kok-Foo; Ahmad, Aftab; Kong, Keng He; Chang, Hui Meng; Chow, Khuan Yew; Koh, Gerald Choon-Huat; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy

2015-10-01

This study investigated trends in stroke incidence and case fatality overall and according to sex, age, ethnicity, and stroke subtype in a multiethnic Asian population. The Singapore Stroke Registry identifies all stroke cases in all public hospitals using medical claims, hospital discharge summaries, and death registry data. Age-standardized incidence rates and 28-day case-fatality rates were calculated for individuals aged ≥15 years between 2006 and 2012. To estimate the annual percentage change of the rates, a linear regression model was fitted to the log rates, and a Wald test was performed to test for trend. P values <0.05 were considered significant. A total of 40 623 cases were recorded. The total stroke incidence fell by ≈12.0%, and case fatality fell by 17.2% in the study. Declining trends in stroke incidence were stronger in women (female: -2.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], -3.43 to -2.44; male: -1.80; 95% CI, -2.58 to -1.02); in the older age groups (≥65 years: -3.62; 95% CI, -4.30 to -2.94; 50-64 years: -1.26; 95% CI, -1.97 to -0.55; <50 years: 3.33; 95% CI, 1.49 to 5.20), in Chinese (-2.64; 95% CI, -3.15 to -2.13), Indians (-3.78; 95% CI, -5.93 to -1.58), and others (-12.73; 95% CI, -18.93 to -6.06) compared with Malays (2.58; 95% CI, 1.17 to 4.02); and in ischemic stroke subtype (ischemic: -2.43; 95% CI, -3.13 to -1.73; hemorrhagic: -1.02; 95% CI, -2.04 to 0.01). Subgroup-specific findings for case fatality were similar. This is the first countrywide hospital-based registry study in a multiethnic Asian population, and it revealed marked overall reductions in stroke incidence and case fatality. However, it also identified important population groups with less favorable trends, especially younger adults and those of Malay ethnicity. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Comparison of remote sensing algorithms for retrieval of suspended particulate matter concentration from reflectance in coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Lauren A.; Ackleson, Steven G.; Rhea, William Joseph

2017-10-01

Suspended particulate matter (SPM) is a key environmental indicator for rivers, estuaries, and coastal waters, which can be calculated from remote sensing reflectance obtained by an airborne or satellite imager. Here, algorithms from prior studies are applied to a dataset of in-situ at surface hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance, collected in three geographic regions representing different water types. These data show the optically inherent exponential nature of the relationship between reflectance and sediment concentration. However, linear models are also shown to provide a reasonable estimate of sediment concentration when utilized with care in similar conditions to those under which the algorithms were developed, particularly at lower SPM values (0 to 20 mg/L). Fifteen published SPM algorithms are tested, returning strong correlations of R2>0.7, and in most cases, R2>0.8. Very low SPM values show weaker correlation with algorithm calculated SPM that is not wavelength dependent. None of the tested algorithms performs well for high SPM values (>30 mg/L), with most algorithms underestimating SPM. A shift toward a smaller number of simple exponential or linear models relating satellite remote sensing reflectance to suspended sediment concentration with regional consideration will greatly aid larger spatiotemporal studies of suspended sediment trends.

Reliability and Validity of 2 Self-Report Measures to Assess Sedentary Behavior in Older Adults.

PubMed

Gennuso, Keith P; Matthews, Charles E; Colbert, Lisa H

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of 2 currently available physical activity surveys for assessing time spent in sedentary behavior (SB) in older adults. Fifty-eight adults (≥65 years) completed the Yale Physical Activity Survey for Older Adults (YPAS) and Community Health Activities Model Program for Seniors (CHAMPS) before and after a 10-day period during which they wore an ActiGraph accelerometer (ACC). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) examined test-retest reliability. Overall percent agreement and a kappa statistic examined YPAS validity. Lin's concordance correlation, Pearson correlation, and Bland-Altman analysis examined CHAMPS validity. Both surveys had moderate test-retest reliability (ICC: YPAS = 0.59 (P < .001), CHAMPS = 0.64 (P < .001)) and significantly underestimated SB time. Agreement between YPAS and ACC was low (κ = -0.0003); however, there was a linear increase (P < .01) in ACC-derived SB time across YPAS response categories. There was poor agreement between ACC-derived SB and CHAMPS (Lin's r = .005; 95% CI, -0.010 to 0.020), and no linear trend across CHAMPS quartiles (P = .53). Neither of the surveys should be used as the sole measure of SB in a study; though the YPAS has the ability to rank individuals, providing it with some merit for use in correlational SB research.

Breastfeeding and Mental and Motor Development at 5 ½ Years

PubMed Central

Clark, Katy M.; Castillo, Marcela; Calatroni, Agustin; Walter, Tomas; Cayazzo, Marisol; Pino, Paulina; Lozoff, Betsy

2006-01-01

Objective Breastfeeding is associated with better child development outcomes, but uncertainty remains primarily due to the close relationship between breastfeeding and socioeconomic status. This study assesses the issue in a low socioeconomic status sample where breastfeeding was close to universal. Methods 784 Chilean children were followed longitudinally from infancy. All but 4 were initially breastfed, 40% nursed beyond 12 months, and infant growth was normal. Child development was assessed at 5 ½ years by a cognitive, language, and motor test battery. The duration of breastfeeding as the sole milk source was analyzed as a continuous variable, adjusting for a comprehensive set of background factors. Results The relationship between breastfeeding and most 5 ½ -year developmental outcomes was non-linear, with poorer outcome for periods of breastfeeding as the sole milk source for < 2 months or > 8 months – statistically significant for language, motor, and one comprehensive cognitive test, with a suggestive trend for IQ. Conclusions The observed non-linear relationships showed that breastfeeding as the sole milk source for < 2 months or > 8 months, compared to 2–8 months, was associated with poorer development in this sample. The latter finding requires replication in other samples where long breastfeeding is common and socioeconomic status is relatively homogeneous. PMID:16530141

Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

2012-02-01

The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

Racial and Ethnic Trends in Sudden Unexpected Infant Deaths: United States, 1995-2013.

PubMed

Parks, Sharyn E; Erck Lambert, Alexa B; Shapiro-Mendoza, Carrie K

2017-06-01

Immediately after the 1994 Back-to-Sleep campaign, sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) rates decreased dramatically, but they have remained relatively stable (93.4 per 100 000 live births) since 2000. In this study, we examined trends in SUID rates and disparities by race/ethnicity since the Back-to-Sleep campaign. We used 1995-2013 US period-linked birth-infant death data to evaluate SUID rates per 100 000 live births by non-Hispanic white (NHW), non-Hispanic black (NHB), Hispanic, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Asian/Pacific Islander racial/ethnic groupings. To examine racial/ethnic disparities, we calculated rate ratios with NHWs as the referent group. Unadjusted linear regression was used to evaluate trends ( P < .05) in rates and rate ratios. The distribution and rates of SUID by demographic and birth characteristics were compared for 1995-1997 and 2011-2013, and χ 2 tests were used to evaluate significance. From 1995 to 2013, SUID rates were consistently highest for American Indian/Alaska Natives, followed by NHBs. The rate for NHBs decreased significantly, whereas the rate for NHWs also declined, but not significantly. As a result, the disparity between NHWs and NHBs narrowed slightly. The SUID rates for Hispanics and Asian/Pacific Islanders were lower than the rates for NHWs and showed a significant decrease, resulting in an increase in their advantage over NHWs. Each racial/ethnic group showed a unique trend in SUID rates since the Back-to-Sleep campaign. When implementing risk-reduction strategies, it is important to consider these trends in targeting populations for prevention and developing culturally appropriate approaches for racial/ethnic communities. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Trends in health complaints from 2002 to 2010 in 34 countries and their association with health behaviours and social context factors at individual and macro-level.

PubMed

Ottová-Jordan, Veronika; Smith, Otto R F; Augustine, Lilly; Gobina, Inese; Rathmann, Katharina; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Mazur, Joanna; Välimaa, Raili; Cavallo, Franco; Jericek Klanscek, Helena; Vollebergh, Wilma; Meilstrup, Charlotte; Richter, Matthias; Moor, Irene; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike

2015-04-01

This article describes trends and stability over time in health complaints in adolescents from 2002 to 2010 and investigates associations between health complaints, behavioural and social contextual factors at individual level and economic factors at macro-level. Comprising N = 510 876 11-, 13- and 15-year-old children and adolescents in Europe, North America and Israel, data came from three survey cycles of the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study. Age- and gender-adjusted trends in health complaints were examined in each country by means of linear regression. By using the country as the random effects variable, we tested to what extent individual and contextual variables were associated with health complaints. Significant associations are stronger for individual level determinants (e.g. being bullied, smoking) than for determinants at macro-level (e.g. GDP, Gini), as can be seen by the small effect sizes (less than 5% for different trends). Health complaints are fairly stable over time in most countries, and no clear international trend in health complaints can be observed between 2002 and 2010. The most prominent stable determinants were being female, being bullied, school pressure and smoking. Factors associated with health complaints are more related to the proximal environment than to distal macro-level factors. This points towards intensifying targeted interventions, (e.g. for bullying) and also targeting specific risk groups. The comparably small effect size at country-level indicates that country-level factors have an impact on health and should not be ignored. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Racial and Ethnic Trends in Sudden Unexpected Infant Deaths: United States, 1995–2013

PubMed Central

Parks, Sharyn E.; Erck Lambert, Alexa B.; Shapiro-Mendoza, Carrie K.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Immediately after the 1994 Back-to-Sleep campaign, sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) rates decreased dramatically, but they have remained relatively stable (93.4 per 100 000 live births) since 2000. In this study, we examined trends in SUID rates and disparities by race/ethnicity since the Back-to-Sleep campaign. METHODS We used 1995–2013 US period-linked birth-infant death data to evaluate SUID rates per 100 000 live births by non-Hispanic white (NHW), non-Hispanic black (NHB), Hispanic, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Asian/Pacific Islander racial/ethnic groupings. To examine racial/ethnic disparities, we calculated rate ratios with NHWs as the referent group. Unadjusted linear regression was used to evaluate trends (P < .05) in rates and rate ratios. The distribution and rates of SUID by demographic and birth characteristics were compared for 1995–1997 and 2011–2013, and χ2 tests were used to evaluate significance. RESULTS From 1995 to 2013, SUID rates were consistently highest for American Indian/Alaska Natives, followed by NHBs. The rate for NHBs decreased significantly, whereas the rate for NHWs also declined, but not significantly. As a result, the disparity between NHWs and NHBs narrowed slightly. The SUID rates for Hispanics and Asian/Pacific Islanders were lower than the rates for NHWs and showed a significant decrease, resulting in an increase in their advantage over NHWs. CONCLUSIONS Each racial/ethnic group showed a unique trend in SUID rates since the Back-to-Sleep campaign. When implementing risk-reduction strategies, it is important to consider these trends in targeting populations for prevention and developing culturally appropriate approaches for racial/ethnic communities. PMID:28562272

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Race/ethnicity and marijuana use in the United States: Diminishing differences in the prevalence of use, 2006-2015.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine M; Wall, Melanie; Feng, Tianshu; Cerdá, Magdalena; Hasin, Deborah S

2017-10-01

Marijuana use has been decreasing in the past several years among adolescents, though variation in the extent and rate of decrease across racial/ethnic groups is inadequately understood. The present study utilized nationally-representative data in Monitoring the Future from 2006 to 2015 to examine trends over time in past 30-day marijuana use. We examine whether differences in trends over time by race and ethnicity also differ by individual-level, school-level, and state-level factors. Sample included 131,351 8th grade students, 137,249 10th grade students, and 123,293 12th grade students; multi-level models and difference-in-differences tests were used. In 10th grade, Black students had a positive linear increase in marijuana use (est=0.04, SE=0.01, p<0.001), and the magnitude of the increase was significantly greater than among non-Hispanic White students (est=0.38, SE=0.009, p<0.001). The increase trend among Black students was greater among those in large class sizes. In 12th grade, all racial ethnic groups except non-Hispanic Whites demonstrated a linear increase in prevalence across time. The magnitude of the increase among Hispanic students was greater among those in urban areas and large class sizes. The magnitude of the increase among Black students was greater in states with a medical marijuana law before 2006 (est=0.06, SE=0.03, p=0.02), among other state-level covariates. Together these results suggest that the next stage of public health approaches to reducing the harms associated with adolescent drug use should attend to shifting demographic patterns of use among adolescents and ensure that services and programmatic approaches to adolescent prevention are applied equitably. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic approaches for time series forecasting of boron: a case study of Western Turkey.

PubMed

Durdu, Omer Faruk

2010-10-01

In the present study, a seasonal and non-seasonal prediction of boron concentrations time series data for the period of 1996-2004 from Büyük Menderes river in western Turkey are addressed by means of linear stochastic models. The methodology presented here is to develop adequate linear stochastic models known as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to predict boron content in the Büyük Menderes catchment. Initially, the Box-Whisker plots and Kendall's tau test are used to identify the trends during the study period. The measurements locations do not show significant overall trend in boron concentrations, though marginal increasing and decreasing trends are observed for certain periods at some locations. ARIMA modeling approach involves the following three steps: model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking. In the model identification step, considering the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) results of boron data series, different ARIMA models are identified. The model gives the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) is selected as the best-fit model. The parameter estimation step indicates that the estimated model parameters are significantly different from zero. The diagnostic check step is applied to the residuals of the selected ARIMA models and the results indicate that the residuals are independent, normally distributed, and homoscadastic. For the model validation purposes, the predicted results using the best ARIMA models are compared to the observed data. The predicted data show reasonably good agreement with the actual data. The comparison of the mean and variance of 3-year (2002-2004) observed data vs predicted data from the selected best models show that the boron model from ARIMA modeling approaches could be used in a safe manner since the predicted values from these models preserve the basic statistics of observed data in terms of mean. The ARIMA modeling approach is recommended for predicting boron concentration series of a river.

Tobacco control in California compared with the rest of the USA: trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption.

PubMed

Pierce, John P; Shi, Yuyan; Hendrickson, Erik M; White, Martha M; Noble, Madison L; Kealey, Sheila; Strong, David R; Trinidad, Dennis R; Hartman, Anne M; Messer, Karen

2017-11-27

In the 1990s, California led the USA in state-level tobacco control strategies. However, after 2000, California lost ground on cigarette taxes, although it maintained higher levels of smoke-free homes among smokers. Trends in per capita cigarette consumption were assessed through taxed sales data and from self-report in repeated national cross-sectional surveys. Linear regressions identified changes in trends after year 2000 separately for California and the rest of the USA. Using data from each state, a linear regression tested the association between different tobacco control strategies and per capita consumption. Change in self-reported per capita consumption was partitioned into contributions associated with initiation, quitting and reduction in cigarette consumption level. Both taxed cigarette sales and per capita consumption declined rapidly in the USA from 1985 to 2015. Declines were particularly fast in California before 2000 but slowed thereafter. In 2014, per capita consumption in California was 29.4 packs/adult/year, but 90% higher in the rest of the USA. Modelling state-level data, every $1 increase in cigarette taxes reduced consumption by 4.8 (95% CI 2.9 to 6.8) packs/adult/year. Every 5% increase in the proportion of smokers with smoke-free homes reduced consumption by 8.0 (95% CI 7.0 to 8.9) packs/adult/year. The different patterns in California and the rest of the USA are at least partially explained by these two variables. The slow down in per capita consumption in California can be attributed to changes in initiation, quitting and especially smokers reducing their consumption level. Tobacco control strategies need to be continually updated to maintain momentum towards a smoke-free society. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Standard Area Diagrams for Aiding Severity Estimation: Scientometrics, Pathosystems, and Methodological Trends in the Last 25 Years.

PubMed

Del Ponte, Emerson M; Pethybridge, Sarah J; Bock, Clive H; Michereff, Sami J; Machado, Franklin J; Spolti, Piérri

2017-10-01

Standard area diagrams (SAD) have long been used as a tool to aid the estimation of plant disease severity, an essential variable in phytopathometry. Formal validation of SAD was not considered prior to the early 1990s, when considerable effort began to be invested developing SAD and assessing their value for improving accuracy of estimates of disease severity in many pathosystems. Peer-reviewed literature post-1990 was identified, selected, and cataloged in bibliographic software for further scrutiny and extraction of scientometric, pathosystem-related, and methodological-related data. In total, 105 studies (127 SAD) were found and authored by 327 researchers from 10 countries, mainly from Brazil. The six most prolific authors published at least seven studies. The scientific impact of a SAD article, based on annual citations after publication year, was affected by disease significance, the journal's impact factor, and methodological innovation. The reviewed SAD encompassed 48 crops and 103 unique diseases across a range of plant organs. Severity was quantified largely by image analysis software such as QUANT, APS-Assess, or a LI-COR leaf area meter. The most typical SAD comprised five to eight black-and-white drawings of leaf diagrams, with severity increasing nonlinearly. However, there was a trend toward using true-color photographs or stylized representations in a range of color combinations and more linear (equally spaced) increments of severity. A two-step SAD validation approach was used in 78 of 105 studies for which linear regression was the preferred method but a trend toward using Lin's correlation concordance analysis and hypothesis tests to detect the effect of SAD on accuracy was apparent. Reliability measures, when obtained, mainly considered variation among rather than within raters. The implications of the findings and knowledge gaps are discussed. A list of best practices for designing and implementing SAD and a website called SADBank for hosting SAD research data are proposed.

Kyphosis and paraspinal muscle composition in older men: a cross-sectional study for the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) research group.

PubMed

Katzman, Wendy B; Miller-Martinez, Dana; Marshall, Lynn M; Lane, Nancy E; Kado, Deborah M

2014-01-16

The prevalence of hyperkyphosis is increased in older men; however, risk factors other than age and vertebral fractures are not well established. We previously reported that poor paraspinal muscle composition contributes to more severe kyphosis in a cohort of both older men and women. To specifically evaluate this association in older men, we conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate the association of paraspinal muscle composition and degree of thoracic kyphosis in an analytic cohort of 475 randomly selected participants from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study with baseline abdominal quantitative computed tomography (QCT) scans and plain thoracic radiographs. Baseline abdominal QCT scans were used to obtain abdominal body composition measurements of paraspinal muscle and adipose tissue distribution. Supine lateral spine radiographs were used to measure Cobb angle of kyphosis. We examined the linear association of muscle volume, fat volume and kyphosis using loess plots. Multivariate linear models were used to investigate the association between muscle and kyphosis using total muscle volume, as well as individual components of the total muscle volume, including adipose and muscle compartments alone, controlling for age, height, vertebral fractures, and total hip bone mineral density (BMD). We examined these associations among those with no prevalent vertebral fracture and those with BMI < 30 kg/m2. Among men in the analytic cohort, means (SD) were 74 (SD = 5.9) years for age, and 37.5 (SD = 11.9) degrees for Cobb angle of kyphosis. Men in the lowest tertile of total paraspinal muscle volume had greater mean Cobb angle than men in the highest tertile, although test of linear trend across tertiles did not reach statistical significance. Neither lower paraspinal skeletal muscle volume (p-trend = 0.08), or IMAT (p-trend = 0.96) was associated with greater kyphosis. Results were similar among those with no prevalent vertebral fractures. However, among men with BMI < 30 kg/m2, those in the lowest tertile of paraspinal muscle volume had greater adjusted mean kyphosis (40.0, 95% CI: 37.8 - 42.1) compared to the highest tertile (36.3, 95% CI: 34.2 - 38.4). These results suggest that differences in body composition may potentially influence kyphosis.

Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time.

PubMed

Hake, Anna; Pfeifer, Nico

2017-10-01

Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient's viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population.

Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient’s viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population. PMID:29065122

Testing and referral patterns in the years surrounding the US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation against prostate-specific antigen screening.

PubMed

Hutchinson, Ryan; Akhtar, Abdulhadi; Haridas, Justin; Bhat, Deepa; Roehrborn, Claus; Lotan, Yair

2016-12-15

Since the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, there have been conflicting reports regarding the impact on the behavior of providers. This study analyzed real-world data on PSA ordering and referral practices in the years surrounding the recommendation. A whole-institution sample of entered PSA orders and urology referrals was obtained from the electronic medical record. The study was performed at a tertiary referral center with a catchment in the southern United States. PSA examinations were defined as screening when they were ordered by providers with appointments in internal medicine, family medicine, or general internal medicine. Linear and quadratic regression analyses were performed, and joinpoint regression was used to assess for trend inflection points. Between January 2010 and July 2015, there were 275,784 unique ambulatory visits for men. There were 63,722 raw PSA orders, and 54,684 were evaluable. Primary care providers ordered 17,315 PSA tests and 858 urology referrals. The number of PSA tests per ambulatory visit, the number of referrals per ambulatory visit, the age at the time of the urology referral, and the proportion of PSA tests performed outside the recommended age range did not significantly change. The PSA value at the time of referral increased significantly (P = .022). Joinpoint analysis revealed no joinpoints in the analysis of total PSA orders, screening PSA tests, or examinations per 100 visits. In the years surrounding the USPSTF recommendation, PSA behavior did not change significantly. Patients were referred at progressively higher average PSA levels. The implications for prostate cancer outcomes from these trends warrant further research into provider variables associated with actual PSA utilization. Cancer 2016;122:3785-3793. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Experimental investigation of the strength and failure behavior of layered sandstone under uniaxial compression and Brazilian testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Peng-Fei; Yang, Sheng-Qi

2018-05-01

As a typical inherently anisotropic rock, layered sandstones can differ from each other in several aspects, including grain size, type of material, type of cementation, and degree of compaction. An experimental study is essential to obtain and convictive evidence to characterize the mechanical behavior of such rock. In this paper, the mechanical behavior of a layered sandstone from Xuzhou, China, is investigated under uniaxial compression and Brazilian test conditions. The loading tests are conducted on 7 sets of bedding inclinations, which are defined as the angle between the bedding plane and horizontal direction. The uniaxial compression strength (UCS) and elastic modulus values show an undulatory variation when the bedding inclination increases. The overall trend of the UCS and elastic modulus values with bedding inclination is decreasing. The BTS value decreases with respect to the bedding inclination and the overall trend of it is approximating a linear variation. The 3D digital high-speed camera images reveal that the failure and fracture of a specimen are related to the surface deformation. Layered sandstone tested under uniaxial compression does not show a typical failure mode, although shear slip along the bedding plane occurs at high bedding inclinations. Strain gauge readings during the Brazilian tests indicate that the normal stress on the bedding plane transforms from compression to tension as the bedding inclination increases. The stress parallel to the bedding plane in a rock material transforms from tension to compression and agrees well with the fracture patterns; "central fractures" occur at bedding inclinations of 0°-75°, "layer activation" occurs at high bedding inclinations of 75°-90°, and a combination of the two occurs at 75°.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and southern Wyoming - A review and new analysis of past study results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.

2003-01-01

The Rocky Mountain region of Colorado and southern Wyoming receives as much as 7kgha-1yr-1 of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, an amount that may have caused changes in aquatic and terrestrial life in otherwise pristine ecosystems. Results from published studies indicate a long-term increase in the rate of atmospheric N deposition during the 20th century, but data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and Clean Air Status and Trends Network show no region-wide increase during the past 2 decades. Nitrogen loads in atmospheric wet deposition have increased since the mid-1980s, however, at three high elevation (>3000m) sites east of the Continental Divide in the Front Range. Much of this increase is the result of increased ammonium (NH4+) concentrations in wet deposition. This suggests an increase in contributions from agricultural areas or from vehicles east of the Rocky Mountains and is consistent with the results of previous studies that have suggested a significant eastern source for atmospheric N deposition to the Front Range. The four sites with the highest NH4+ concentrations in wet deposition were among the six easternmost NADP sites, which is also consistent with a source to the east of the Rockies. This analysis found an increase in N loads in wet deposition at Niwot Ridge of only 0.013kgha-1yr-1, more than an order of magnitude less than previously reported for this site. This lower rate of increase results from application of the non-parametric Seasonal Kendall trend test to mean monthly data, which failed a test for normality, in contrast to linear regression, which was applied to mean annual data in a previous study. Current upward trends in population growth and energy use in Colorado and throughout the west suggest a need for continued monitoring of atmospheric deposition of N, and may reveal more widespread trends in N deposition in the future.

Walking for Transportation or Leisure Among U.S. Women and Men - National Health Interview Survey, 2005-2015.

PubMed

Ussery, Emily N; Carlson, Susan A; Whitfield, Geoffrey P; Watson, Kathleen B; Berrigan, David; Fulton, Janet E

2017-06-30

Physical activity confers considerable health benefits, but only half of U.S. adults report participating in levels of aerobic physical activity consistent with guidelines (1,2). Step It Up! The Surgeon General's Call to Action to Promote Walking and Walkable Communities identified walking as an important public health strategy to increase physical activity levels (3). A previous report showed that the self-reported prevalence of walking for transportation or leisure increased by 6 percentage points from 2005 to 2010 (4), but it is unknown whether this increase has been sustained. CDC analyzed National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 2005 (26,551 respondents), 2010 (23,313), and 2015 (28,877) to evaluate trends in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported walking among adults aged ≥18 years. The prevalence of walking increased steadily among women, from 57.3% in 2005, to 62.5% in 2010, and to 65.1% in 2015 (significant linear trend). Among men, a significant linear increase in reported walking was observed, from 54.3% in 2005, to 61.8% in 2010, and to 62.8% in 2015, although the increase stalled between 2010 and 2015 (significant linear and quadratic trends). Community design policies and practices that encourage pedestrian activity and programs tailored to the needs of specific population subgroups remain important strategies for promoting walking (3).

Birth characteristics, maternal reproductive history, and the risk of infant leukemia: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Spector, Logan G; Davies, Stella M; Robison, Leslie L; Hilden, Joanne M; Roesler, Michelle; Ross, Julie A

2007-01-01

Leukemias with MLL gene rearrangements predominate in infants (<1 year of age), but not in older children, and may have a distinct etiology. High birth weight, higher birth order, and prior fetal loss have, with varying consistency, been associated with infant leukemia, but no studies have reported results with respect to MLL status. Here, we report for the first time such an analysis. During 1999 to 2003, mothers of 240 incident cases (113 MLL(+), 80 MLL(-), and 47 indeterminate) and 255 random digit dialed controls completed a telephone interview. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartile of birth weight, birth order, gestational age, maternal age at delivery, prior fetal loss, pre-pregnancy body mass index, and weight gain during pregnancy were obtained using unconditional logistic regression; P for linear trend was obtained by modeling continuous variables. There was a borderline significant linear trend of increasing birth weight with MLL(+) (P = 0.06), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.93), infant leukemia. Increasing birth order showed a significant inverse linear trend, independent of birth weight, with MLL(+) (P = 0.01), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.18), infant leukemia. Other variables of interest were not notably associated with infant leukemia regardless of MLL status. This investigation further supports the contention that molecularly defined subtypes of infant leukemia have separate etiologies.

A slingram survey on the Nevada Test Site: part of an integrated geologic geophysical study of site evaluation for nuclear waste disposal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flanigan, Vincent J.

1979-01-01

A slingram geophysical survey was made in early 1978 as part of the integrated geologlcal-geophysical study aimed at evaluating the Eleana Formation as a possible repository for nuclear waste. The slingram data were taken over an alluvial fan and pediments along the eastern flank of Syncline Ridge about 45 km north of Mercury, Nevada, on the Nevada Test Site. The data show that the more conductive argillaceous Eleana Formation varies in depth from 40 to 85 m from west to east along traverse lines. Northeast-trending linear anomalies suggest rather abrupt changes in subsurface geology that may be associated with faults and fractures. The results of the slingram survey will, when interpreted in the light of other geologic and geophysical evidence, assist in understanding the shallow parts of the geologic setting of the Eleana Formation.

Middeck zero-gravity dynamics experiment - Comparison of ground and flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawley, Edward F.; Barlow, Mark S.; Van Schoor, Marthinus C.; Masters, Brett; Bicos, Andrew S.

1992-01-01

An analytic and experimental study of the changes in the modal parameters of space structural test articles from one- to zero-gravity is presented. Deployable, erectable, and rotary modules was assembled to form three one- and two-dimensional structures, in which variations in bracing wire and rotary joint preload could be introduced. The structures were modeled as if hanging from a suspension system in one gravity, and unconstrained, as if free floating in zero-gravity. The analysis is compared with ground experimental measurements, made on a spring/wire suspension system with a nominal plunge frequency of one Hertz, and with measurements made on the Shuttle middeck. The degree of change in linear modal parameters as well as the change in nonlinear nature of the response is examined. Trends in modal parameters are presented as a function of force amplitude, joint preload, and ambient gravity level.

Bias to experience approaching motion in a three-dimensional virtual environment.

PubMed

Lewis, Clifford F; McBeath, Michael K

2004-01-01

We used two-frame apparent motion in a three-dimensional virtual environment to test whether observers had biases to experience approaching or receding motion in depth. Observers viewed a tunnel of tiles receding in depth, that moved ambiguously either toward or away from them. We found that observers exhibited biases to experience approaching motion. The strengths of the biases were decreased when stimuli pointed away, but size of the display screen had no effect. Tests with diamond-shaped tiles that varied in the degree of pointing asymmetry resulted in a linear trend in which the bias was strongest for stimuli pointing toward the viewer, and weakest for stimuli pointing away. We show that the overall bias to experience approaching motion is consistent with a computational strategy of matching corresponding features between adjacent foreshortened stimuli in consecutive visual frames. We conclude that there are both adaptational and geometric reasons to favor the experience of approaching motion.

The toxicity of ammonia/ammonium to the vermifiltration wastewater treatment process.

PubMed

Hughes, R J; Nair, J; Ho, G

2008-01-01

This study was undertaken to assess the toxicity of ammonia/ammonium to key species within the vermifiltration process. The key species, the earthworm Eisenia fetida, was subjected to a series of tests in solid phase mesocosms and full-scale units. The solid phase tests showed a relatively low toxicity to ammonium with ammonium chloride having an LC50 for ammonium of 1.49 g/kg. Ammonium sulfate did not show an effect on mortality at 2 g/kg ammonium. The full-scale units showed that ammonia hydroxide can change the pH and concentration of ammonia in wastewater and while it caused some mortality to the worms its overall affect on system functioning was minimal with no significant difference in terms of worm survival found between treatments. The affect on nitrifying bacteria was also minimal with no linear trend shown with ammonia concentration. IWA Publishing 2008.

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

This Standard presents descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. Use of this Standard is not mandatory; however, it should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend Analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology, but rather connotes, generally, quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this Standard. The document presents the basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends, together with relevant examples. A list of references provides additional sources of information.

Identifying trends in sediment discharge from alterations in upstream land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Osterkamp, W.R.

1995-01-01

Environmental monitoring is a primary reason for collecting sediment data. One emphasis of this monitoring is identification of trends in suspended sediment discharge. A stochastic equation was used to generate time series of annual suspended sediment discharges using statistics from gaging stations with drainage areas between 1606 and 1 805 230 km2. Annual sediment discharge was increased linearly to yield a given increase at the end of a fixed period and trend statistics were computed for each simulation series using Kendal's tau (at 0.05 significance level). A parameter was calculated from two factors that control trend detection time: (a) the magnitude of change in sediment discharge, and (b) the natural variability of sediment discharge. In this analysis the detection of a trend at most stations is well over 100 years for a 20% increase in sediment discharge. Further research is needed to assess the sensitivity of detecting trends at sediment stations.

Applicability of computer-aided comprehensive tool (LINDA: LINeament Detection and Analysis) and shaded digital elevation model for characterizing and interpreting morphotectonic features from lineaments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoud, Alaa; Koike, Katsuaki

2017-09-01

Detection and analysis of linear features related to surface and subsurface structures have been deemed necessary in natural resource exploration and earth surface instability assessment. Subjectivity in choosing control parameters required in conventional methods of lineament detection may cause unreliable results. To reduce this ambiguity, we developed LINDA (LINeament Detection and Analysis), an integrated tool with graphical user interface in Visual Basic. This tool automates processes of detection and analysis of linear features from grid data of topography (digital elevation model; DEM), gravity and magnetic surfaces, as well as data from remote sensing imagery. A simple interface with five display windows forms a user-friendly interactive environment. The interface facilitates grid data shading, detection and grouping of segments, lineament analyses for calculating strike and dip and estimating fault type, and interactive viewing of lineament geometry. Density maps of the center and intersection points of linear features (segments and lineaments) are also included. A systematic analysis of test DEMs and Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery datasets in the North and South Eastern Deserts of Egypt is implemented to demonstrate the capability of LINDA and correct use of its functions. Linear features from the DEM are superior to those from the imagery in terms of frequency, but both linear features agree with location and direction of V-shaped valleys and dykes and reference fault data. Through the case studies, LINDA applicability is demonstrated to highlight dominant structural trends, which can aid understanding of geodynamic frameworks in any region.

Unmetabolized Folic Acid, Tetrahydrofolate, and Colorectal Adenoma Risk.

PubMed

Rees, Judy R; Morris, Carolyn B; Peacock, Janet L; Ueland, Per M; Barry, Elizabeth L; McKeown-Eyssen, Gail E; Figueiredo, Jane C; Snover, Dale C; Baron, John A

2017-08-01

In a randomized trial of folic acid supplementation for the prevention of colorectal adenomas, we previously found indications of increased risk during later treatment and follow-up. This could have been due to the unmetabolized folic acid (UFA) or natural reduced and methylated folates (mF) to which it is metabolized. In post hoc analyses, we measured mF (the sum of 5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate and 4-alfa-hydroxy-5-methyl-THF) and UFA concentrations in the serum of 924 participants. Using binomial regression models with a log link, we assessed the associations between plasma mF or UFA and adenoma occurrence. We found no association between plasma mF or UFA and overall adenoma risk. However, during later follow-up, the prespecified, composite endpoint of high-risk findings (advanced or multiple adenomas) was positively associated with plasma mF ( P linear trend = 0.009), with a 58% increased risk for participants in the upper versus lowest quartile. An irregular association was seen with plasma UFA, with suggestions of an inverse trend ( P linear trend =0.049). A modest, significant inverse association was also seen between mF and risk of serrated lesions, with a 39% lower risk for upper versus lower quartile participants ( P linear trend = 0.03). In conclusion, during the later follow-up period in which folic acid supplementation was previously seen to increase the risk of advanced and multiple adenomas, higher serum mF was associated with a higher risk of multiple and/or advanced adenomas, but no clear indication that UFA played a direct role. There were indications that higher mF was associated with reduced risk of serrated polyps. Cancer Prev Res; 10(8); 451-8. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Post seismic deformation associated with the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

1997-01-01

Following the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5-km spacing was established across the Emerson fault segment of the Landers rupture. The array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it. The array was surveyed by Global Positioning System 0.034, 0.048, 0.381, 1.27, 1.88, 2.60, and 3.42 years after the Landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation. The temporal behavior is described roughly by a short-term (decay time 84±23 days) exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend. Because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions, we attribute that trend to a slower (decay time greater than 5 years) postseismic relaxation, the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run (3.4 years) of postseismic data. About 100 mm of right-lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault-normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3.4-year interval covered by the postseismic surveys. Those displacements are attributed to postseismic, right-lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace. The right-lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array, and the fault-normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture. These conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation. However, no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error.

Bevacizumab-Based Chemotherapy Combined with Regional Deep Capacitive Hyperthermia in Metastatic Cancer Patients: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Ranieri, Girolamo; Ferrari, Cristina; Di Palo, Alessandra; Marech, Ilaria; Porcelli, Mariangela; Falagario, Gianmarco; Ritrovato, Fabiana; Ramunni, Luigi; Fanelli, Margherita; Rubini, Giuseppe; Gadaleta, Cosmo Damiano

2017-07-06

As an angiogenesis inhibitor, bevacizumab has been investigated in combination with different chemotherapeutic agents, achieving an established role for metastatic cancer treatment. However, potential synergic anti-angiogenic effects of hyperthermia have not tested to date in literature. The aim of our study was to analyze efficacy, safety, and survival of anti-angiogenic-based chemotherapy associated to regional deep capacitive hyperthermia (HT) in metastatic cancer patients. Twenty-three patients with metastatic colorectal ( n = 16), ovarian ( n = 5), and breast ( n = 2) cancer were treated with HT in addition to a standard bevacizumab-based chemotherapy regimen. Treatment response assessment was performed, according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria for Solid Tumors (mRECIST), at 80 days (timepoint-1) and at 160 days (timepoint-2) after therapy. Disease Response Rate (DRR), considered as the proportion of patients who had the best response rating (complete response (CR), partial response (PR), or stable disease (SD)), was assessed at timepoint-1 and timepoint-2. Chi-squared for linear trend test was performed to evaluated the association between response groups (R/NR) and the number of previous treatment (none, 1, 2, 3), number of chemotherapy cycles (<6, 6, 12, >12), number of hyperthermia sessions (<12, 12, 24, >24), and lines of chemotherapy (I, II). Survival curves were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method. DRR was 85.7% and 72.2% at timepoint-1 and timepoint-2, respectively. HT was well tolerated without additional adverse effects on chemotherapy-related toxicity. Chi-squared for linear trend test demonstrated that the percentage of responders grew in relation to the number of chemotherapy cycles ( p = 0.015) and to number of HT sessions ( p < 0.001) performed. Both overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) were influenced by the number of chemotherapy cycles ( p < 0.001) and HT sessions ( p < 0.001) performed. Our preliminary data, that need to be confirmed in larger studies, suggest that the combined treatment of bevacizumab-based chemotherapy with HT has a favorable tumor response, is feasible and well tolerated, and offers a potentially promising option for metastatic cancer patients.

Unsteady transonic flows - Introduction, current trends, applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yates, E. C., Jr.

1985-01-01

The computational treatment of unsteady transonic flows is discussed, reviewing the historical development and current techniques. The fundamental physical principles are outlined; the governing equations are introduced; three-dimensional linearized and two-dimensional linear-perturbation theories in frequency domain are described in detail; and consideration is given to frequency-domain FEMs and time-domain finite-difference and integral-equation methods. Extensive graphs and diagrams are included.

Detections of Long Carbon Chains CH_{3}CCCCH, C_{6}H, LINEAR-C_{6}H_{2} and C_{7}H in the Low-Mass Star Forming Region L1527

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araki, Mitsunori; Takano, Shuro; Sakai, Nami; Yamamoto, Satoshi; Oyama, Takahiro; Kuze, Nobuhiko; Tsukiyama, Koichi

2017-06-01

Carbon chains in the warm carbon chain chemistry (WCCC) region has been searched in the 42-44 GHz region by using Green Bank 100 m telescope. Long carbon chains C_{7}H, C_{6}H, CH_{3}CCCCH, and linear-C_{6}H_{2} and cyclic species C_{3}H and C_{3}H_{2}O have been detected in the low-mass star forming region L1527, performing the WCCC. C_{7}H was detected for the first time in molecular clouds. The column density of C_{7}H is derived to be 6.2 × 10^{10} cm^{-2} by using the detected J = 24.5-23.5 and 25.5-24.5 rotational lines. The ^{2}Π_{1/2} electronic state of C_{6}H, locating 21.6 K above the ^{2}Π_{3/2} electronic ground state, and the K_a = 0 line of the para species of linear-C_{6}H_{2} were also detected firstly in molecular clouds. The column densities of the ^{2}Π_{1/2} and ^{2}Π_{3/2} states of C_{6}H in L1527 were derived to be 1.6 × 10^{11} and 1.1 × 10^{12} cm^{-2}, respectively. The total column density of linear-C_{6}H_{2} is obtained to be 1.86 × 10^{11} cm^{-2}. While the abundance ratios of carbon chains in between L1527 and the starless dark cloud Taurus Molecular Cloud-1 Cyanopolyyne Peak (TMC-1 CP) have a trend of decrease by extension of carbon-chain length, column densities of CH_{3}CCCCH and C_{6}H are on the trend. However, the column densities of linear-C_{6}H_{2}, and C_{7}H are as abundant as those of TMC-1 CP in spite of long carbon chain, i.e., they are not on the trend. The abundances of linear-C_{6}H_{2} and C_{7}H show that L1527 is rich for long carbon chains as well as TMC-1 CP.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, L.M.; Clapp, N.E.; Day, C.S.; Lawkins, W.F.

1999-01-12

This research discloses methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming. 76 figs.

Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ontogenetic scaling of caudal fin shape in Squalus acanthias (Chondrichthyes, Elasmobranchii): a geometric morphometric analysis with implications for caudal fin functional morphology.

PubMed

Reiss, Katie L; Bonnan, Matthew F

2010-07-01

The shark heterocercal caudal fin and its contribution to locomotion are of interest to biologists and paleontologists. Current hydrodynamic data show that the stiff dorsal lobe leads the ventral lobe, both lobes of the tail are synchronized during propulsion, and tail shape reflects its overall locomotor function. Given the difficulties surrounding the analysis of shark caudal fins in vivo, little is known about changes in tail shape related to ontogeny and sex in sharks. A quantifiable analysis of caudal fin shape may provide an acceptable proxy for inferring gross functional morphology where direct testing is difficult or impossible. We examined ontogenetic and sex-related shape changes in the caudal fins of 115 Squalus acanthias museum specimens, to test the hypothesis that significant shape changes in the caudal fin shape occur with increasing size and between the sexes. Using linear and geometric morphometrics, we examined caudal shape changes within the context of current hydrodynamic models. We found no statistically significant linear or shape difference between sexes, and near-isometric scaling trends for caudal dimensions. These results suggest that lift and thrust increase linearly with size and caudal span. Thin-plate splines results showed a significant allometric shape change associated with size and caudal span: the dorsal lobe elongates and narrows, whereas the ventral lobe broadens and expands ventrally. Our data suggest a combination of caudal fin morphology with other body morphology aspects, would refine, and better elucidate the hydrodynamic factors (if any) that underlie the significant shape changes we report here for S. acanthias.

A Nonparametric Framework for Comparing Trends and Gaps across Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Andrew Dean

2009-01-01

Problems of scale typically arise when comparing test score trends, gaps, and gap trends across different tests. To overcome some of these difficulties, test score distributions on the same score scale can be represented by nonparametric graphs or statistics that are invariant under monotone scale transformations. This article motivates and then…

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Lai, Zhongping; Tian, Qing; Liu, Wen; Li, Jun

2017-11-01

The variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China during 1960-2015 were analysed using a linear regression (LR) analysis, a Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results showed that the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased at the rate of 0.15°C/10yr, 0.23°C/10yr and 0.19°C/10yr, respectively, over the whole study area during 1960-2015. The warming magnitudes for the above variables during 1980-2015 were much higher than those during 1960-2015:0.38°C/10yr, 0.35°C/10yr and 0.36°C/10yr, respectively. The seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased in the spring, autumn and winter seasons during 1960-2015. Although the summer temperatures also increased at some extent, only the minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend. Meanwhile, the highest rate of increase of seasonal mean temperature occurred in winter (0.24°C/10yr) during 1960-2015 and spring (0.50°C/10yr) during 1980-2015, which indicated that the significant warming trend for the whole YRB could be attributed to the remarkable temperature increases in winter and spring months. However, both the annual and seasonal warming magnitudes showed large regional differences, and a higher warming rate was detected in the eastern YRB and the western source region of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Additionally, annual precipitation increased by approximately 12.02 mm/10yr during 1960-2015 but decreased at the rate of 19.63 mm/10yr during 1980-2015. There were decreasing trends for precipitation in all four seasons since 1980 in the YRB, and a significant increasing trend was only detected in summer since 1960 (12.37 mm/10yr). Overall, a warming-wetting trend was detected in the south-eastern and north-western YRB, while there was a warming-drying trend in middle regions.

Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saxena, Rani; Mathur, Prasoon

2018-03-01

Rainfall and temperature are the most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield. The northwestern (NW) part of India is one of the main regions of food grain production of the country. It comprises of six meteorological subdivisions (Haryana, Punjab, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu). In this study, attempts were made to study variability and trends in rainfall and temperature during 30-year climate normal periods (CN) and 10-year decadal excess or deficit rainfall frequency during the historical period from 1871 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rank correlation (Spearman's rho) tests were used to determine significance of trends. Least square linear fitting method was adopted to find out the slopes of the trend lines. The long-term mean annual rainfall over North West India is 587.7 mm (standard deviation of 153.0 mm and coefficient of variation 26.0). There was increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during post monsoon season in entire study period and current climate normal period (1991-2016) due to which the sowing of rabi season crops may be delayed and there may be germination problem too. There was a non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season and an increasing trend in rainfall during post monsoon over North West India during entire study period. During current CN5 (1991-2016), all the subdivision (except the Saurashtra region) showed a decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season which is a matter of concern for kharif crops and those rabi crops which are grown as rainfed on conserved soil moisture. The decadal annual and seasonal frequencies of excess and deficit years results revealed that the annual total deficit rainfall years (24) exceeded total excess rainfall years (22) in North West India during the entire study period. While during the current decadal period (2011 to 2016), single year was the excess year and 2 years were deficit rainfall years in all subdivisions (except East Rajasthan) on annual basis.

Large Amplitude Oscillatory Shear (LAOS) of Acrylic Emulsion-Based Pressure Sensitive Adhesives (PSAs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Sipei; Nakatani, Alan; Griffith, William

Large Amplitude Oscillatory Shear (LAOS) testing has recently taken on renewed interest in the rheological community. It is a very useful tool to probe the viscoelastic response of materials in the non-linear regime. Much of the discussion on polymers in the LAOS field has focused on melts in or near the terminal flow regime. Here we present a LAOS study conducted on a commercial rheometer for acrylic emulsion-based pressure sensitive adhesive (PSA) films in the plateau regime. The films behaved qualitatively similar over an oscillation frequency range of 0.5-5 rad/s. From Fourier transform analysis, the fifth or even the seventh order harmonic could be observed at large applied strains. From stress decomposition analysis or Lissajous curves, inter-cycle elastic softening, or type I behavior, was observed for all films as the strain increases, while intra-cycle strain hardening occurred at strains in the LAOS regime. Overall, as acid content increases, it was found that the trend in elasticity under large applied strains agreed very well with the trend in cohesive strength of the films.

Effects of processing parameters on immersion vacuum cooling time and physico-chemical properties of pork hams.

PubMed

Feng, Chao-Hui; Drummond, Liana; Zhang, Zhi-Hang; Sun, Da-Wen

2013-10-01

The effects of agitation (1002 rpm), different pressure reduction rates (60 and 100 mbar/min), as well as employing cold water with different initial temperatures (IWT: 7 and 20°C) on immersion vacuum cooling (IVC) of cooked pork hams were experimentally investigated. Final pork ham core temperature, cooling time, cooling loss, texture properties, colour and chemical composition were evaluated. The application for the first time of agitation during IVC substantially reduced the cooling time (47.39%) to 4.6°C, compared to IVC without agitation. For the different pressure drop rates, there was a trend that shorter IVC cooling times were achieved with lower cooling rate, although results were not statistically significant (P>0.05). For both IWTs tested, the same trend was observed: shorter cooling time and lower cooling loss were obtained under lower linear pressure drop rate of 60 mbar/min (not statistically significant, P>0.05). Compared to the reference cooling method (air blast cooling), IVC achieved higher cooling rates and better meat quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Caribou distribution during the post-calving period in relation to infrastructure in the Prudhoe Bay oil field, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Matthew A.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Durner, George M.; Noel, Lynn E.; McDonald, Trent L.; Ballard, Warren B.

1998-01-01

There is concern that caribou (Rangifer tarandus) may avoid roads and facilities (i.e., infrastructure) in the Prudhoe Bay oil field (PBOF) in northern Alaska, and that this avoidance can have negative effects on the animals. We quantified the relationship between caribou distribution and PBOF infrastructure during the post-calving period (mid-June to mid-August) with aerial surveys from 1990 to 1995. We conducted four to eight surveys per year with complete coverage of the PBOF. We identified active oil field infrastructure and used a geographic information system (GIS) to construct ten 1 km wide concentric intervals surrounding the infrastructure. We tested whether caribou distribution is related to distance from infrastructure with a chi-squared habitat utilization-availability analysis and log-linear regression. We considered bulls, calves, and total caribou of all sex/age classes separately. The habitat utilization-availability analysis indicated there was no consistent trend of attraction to or avoidance of infrastructure. Caribou frequently were more abundant than expected in the intervals close to infrastructure, and this trend was more pronounced for bulls and for total caribou of all sex/age classes than for calves. Log-linear regression (with Poisson error structure) of numbers of caribou and distance from infrastructure were also done, with and without combining data into the 1 km distance intervals. The analysis without intervals revealed no relationship between caribou distribution and distance from oil field infrastructure, or between caribou distribution and Julian date, year, or distance from the Beaufort Sea coast. The log-linear regression with caribou combined into distance intervals showed the density of bulls and total caribou of all sex/age classes declined with distance from infrastructure. Our results indicate that during the post-calving period: 1) caribou distribution is largely unrelated to distance from infrastructure; 2) caribou regularly use habitats in the PBOF; 3) caribou often occur close to infrastructure; and 4) caribou do not appear to avoid oil field infrastructure.

The Association between Nocturnal Cardiac Arrhythmias and Sleep-Disordered Breathing: The DREAM Study.

PubMed

Selim, Bernardo J; Koo, Brian B; Qin, Li; Jeon, Sangchoon; Won, Christine; Redeker, Nancy S; Lampert, Rachel J; Concato, John P; Bravata, Dawn M; Ferguson, Jared; Strohl, Kingman; Bennett, Adam; Zinchuk, Andrey; Yaggi, Henry K

2016-06-15

To determine whether sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is associated with cardiac arrhythmia in a clinic-based population with multiple cardiovascular comorbidities and severe SDB. This was a cross-sectional analysis of 697 veterans who underwent polysomnography for suspected SDB. SDB was categorized according to the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI): none (AHI < 5), mild (5 ≥ AHI < 15), and moderate-severe (AHI ≥ 15). Nocturnal cardiac arrhythmias consisted of: (1) complex ventricular ectopy, (CVE: non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, bigeminy, trigeminy, or quadrigeminy), (2) combined supraventricular tachycardia, (CST: atrial fibrillation or supraventricular tachycardia), (3) intraventricular conduction delay (ICD), (4) tachyarrhythmias (ventricular and supraventricular), and (5) any cardiac arrhythmia. Unadjusted, adjusted logistic regression, and Cochran-Armitage testing examined the association between SDB and cardiac arrhythmias. Linear regression models explored the association between hypoxia, arousals, and cardiac arrhythmias. Compared to those without SDB, patients with moderate-severe SDB had almost three-fold unadjusted odds of any cardiac arrhythmia (2.94; CI 95%, 2.01-4.30; p < 0.0001), two-fold odds of tachyarrhythmias (2.16; CI 95%,1.47-3.18; p = 0.0011), two-fold odds of CVE (2.01; 1.36-2.96; p = 0.003), and two-fold odds of ICD (2.50; 1.58-3.95; p = 0.001). A linear trend was identified between SDB severity and all cardiac arrhythmia subtypes (p value linear trend < 0.0001). After adjusting for age, BMI, gender, and cardiovascular diseases, moderate-severe SDB patients had twice the odds of having nocturnal cardiac arrhythmias (2.24; 1.48-3.39; p = 0.004). Frequency of obstructive respiratory events and hypoxia were strong predictors of arrhythmia risk. SDB is independently associated with nocturnal cardiac arrhythmias. Increasing severity of SDB was associated with an increasing risk for any cardiac arrhythmia. © 2016 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

Study on mathematical model to predict aerated power consumption in a gas-liquid stirred tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Deyu; Zhang, Shengfeng; Wei, Xing; Chen, Yiming

The aerated power consumption characteristics in a transparent tank with diameter of 0.3 m and flat bottom stirred by a Rushton impeller were investigated by means of experimental measurement. The test fluid used was tap water as liquid and air as gas. Based on Weibull model, the complete correlation of aerated power with aerated flow number was established through non-linear fit analysis. The effects of aerated rate and impeller speed on aerated power consumption were made an exploration. Results show that the changeable trend of the aerated power consumption is found to be similar under different impeller speeds and impeller diameters, i.e. the aerated power is close to dropping linear at the beginning of gas input, and then the drop tendency decreases as the aerated rate increases, at the end, the aerated power is a constant on the whole as the aerated rate reaches up the loading state. The non-linear fit curve is done using the software Origin based on the experimental data. The fairly high precision of data fit is obtained, which indicates that the mathematical model established can be used to accurately predict the aerated power consumption, comparatively. The proposed research provides a valuable instruction and reference for the design and enlargement of stirred vessel.

Measuring trends of outpatient antibiotic use in Europe: jointly modelling longitudinal data in defined daily doses and packages.

PubMed

Bruyndonckx, Robin; Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Goossens, Herman; Molenberghs, Geert; Coenen, Samuel

2014-07-01

To complement analyses of the linear trend and seasonal fluctuation of European outpatient antibiotic use expressed in defined daily doses (DDD) by analyses of data in packages, to assess the agreement between both measures and to study changes in the number of DDD per package over time. Data on outpatient antibiotic use, aggregated at the level of the active substance (WHO version 2011) were collected from 2000 to 2007 for 31 countries and expressed in DDD and packages per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID and PID, respectively). Data expressed in DID and PID were analysed separately using non-linear mixed models while the agreement between these measurements was analysed through a joint non-linear mixed model. The change in DDD per package over time was studied with a linear mixed model. Total outpatient antibiotic and penicillin use in Europe and their seasonal fluctuation significantly increased in DID, but not in PID. The use of combinations of penicillins significantly increased in DID and in PID. Broad-spectrum penicillin use did not increase significantly in DID and decreased significantly in PID. For all but one subgroup, country-specific deviations moved in the same direction whether measured in DID or PID. The correlations are not perfect. The DDD per package increased significantly over time for all but one subgroup. Outpatient antibiotic use in Europe shows contrasting trends, depending on whether DID or PID is used as the measure. The increase of the DDD per package corroborates the recommendation to adopt PID to monitor outpatient antibiotic use in Europe. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Nevada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Nevada's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP increased in grade 8 reading and math. Average annual gains were larger on the state test than on NAEP in both subjects. Trends in average (mean) test scores…

Properties of the statpac visual field index.

PubMed

Artes, Paul H; O'Leary, Neil; Hutchison, Donna M; Heckler, Lisa; Sharpe, Glen P; Nicolela, Marcelo T; Chauhan, Balwantray C

2011-06-08

Purpose. To compare the properties of the visual field index (VFI) to those of mean deviation (MD) in patients with glaucoma. Methods. MD and VFI were calculated in data obtained from an ongoing longitudinal study in which patients with glaucoma (N = 109, 204 eyes) were observed for 9.8 years (median, 21 tests) with static automated perimetry. MD and VFI were compared in one test of each eye, and a subset of 30 tests were selected to compare the VFI with the judgments of eight experts who judged the percentage of the remaining visual field. In series of tests obtained over time, rates of change, statistical significance, evidence of nonlinearity, and variability were compared between both indices. Results. In single tests, MD and VFI were closely related (r = 0.88, P < 0.001). The relationship between both indices appeared linear, except in visual fields with MDs better than -5.0 dB where 29 (22%) of 129 eyes exhibited a ceiling effect (VFI = 100%). Based on this relationship, the predicted VFIs for visual fields with MDs of -5, -10, and -15 dB were 91%, 76%, and 60%, respectively. The percentage of remaining visual field suggested by the VFI exceeded the range of the experts' subjective judgments in 16 (53%) of 30 eyes. In series of tests obtained over time, rates of change with the two indices were closely related (r = 0.79, P < 0.001), and statistically significant reductions over time (P < 0.05) occurred in a similar number of eyes (92 [45%] with MD, and 87 [43%] with VFI). Of the 105 eyes with statistically significant (P < 0.05) negative trend in either MD or VFI, 74 (70%) showed such trends with both indices (κ = 0.69). The variability of MD and VFI increased with damage, and there was no evidence that change over time was more linear with VFI than with MD. Conclusions. The VFI provides a simple and understandable metric of visual field damage, but its estimates of remaining visual field were more optimistic than those of the experts. Rates of change over time with both indices were closely related, but the reliance of the VFI on pattern deviation probability maps caused a ceiling effect that may have reduced its sensitivity to change in eyes with early damage. In this group of patients there was no evidence to suggest that the VFI is either superior or inferior to the MD as a summary measure of visual field damage.

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Foy, Benjamin; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been estimating NO2 columns from space for over 10 years, and these have been used to estimate emissions and emission trends for point and area sources all over the world. In this study we evaluate the trends in NO2 columns over 54 cities in the USA and Canada to identify the long term trends due to air quality policies, the impact of the Great Recession, and the weekday-weekend effect. A multiple linear regression model is used to fit annual, seasonal and weekly factors for individual swath retrievals along with the impact of temperature, windmore » speed and pixel size. For most cities, the correlation coefficients of the model fit ranges from 0.47 to 0.76. There have been strong reductions in NO2 columns, with annual decreases of up to 7% per year in most cities. During the years of the Great Recession, NO2 columns were as much as 30% lower than they would have been had they followed the linear annual trend. The analysis yielded insights into the timing of the reductions, with some cities in the northwest and in the east experiencing reductions in 2008 already, and most areas back to where they would have been based on the uniform trend by 2011. The analysis also finds that reductions in columns during the weekend vary significantly from city to city, with a range in reductions of 10%-30% on Saturdays, and 20%-50% on Sundays.« less

Trends in exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements over the Internet, in newspapers/magazines, and at retail stores among U.S. middle and high school students, 2000-2012.

PubMed

Agaku, Israel T; King, Brian A; Dube, Shanta R

2014-01-01

Most tobacco use begins during youth. Thus, this study assessed the prevalence, trends, and correlates of pro-tobacco advertising among United States students in grades 6-12 during 2000-2012. Data from the 2000-2012 National Youth Tobacco Survey were analyzed to assess self-reported exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements through three media: over the Internet, in newspapers/magazines, and at retail stores. Trends during 2000-2012 were assessed in a binary logistic regression model (P<0.05). Among all middle and high school students, the overall prevalence of exposure to Internet pro-tobacco advertisements increased from 22.3% to 43.0% during 2000-2012 (P<0.001 for linear trend). During the same period, declines were observed in the overall prevalence of exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements in newspapers/magazines (65.0% to 36.9%) and at retail stores (87.8% to 76.2%) (P<0.001 for all linear trends). Exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements over the Internet increased significantly during 2000-2012 among United States middle and high school students, while a decline in exposure to advertisements in newspapers or magazines, and at retail stores occurred during the same period. However, over two-thirds of students still reported retail store exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements in 2012. Enhanced and sustained efforts would be beneficial to reduce even more exposure to all forms of pro-tobacco advertisements among youths. © 2013.

Reconstructing Tropical Pacific Sea Level Variability for the Period 1961-2002 Using a Linear Multimode Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greatbatch, Richard J.; Zhu, Xiaoting; Claus, Martin

2018-03-01

Monthly mean sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the period 1961-2002 are reconstructed using a linear, multimode model driven by monthly mean wind stress anomalies from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis products. Overall, the sea level anomalies reconstructed by both wind stress products agree well with the available tide gauge data, although with poor performance at Kanton Island in the western-central equatorial Pacific and reduced amplitude at Christmas Island. The reduced performance is related to model error in locating the pivot point in sea level variability associated with the so-called "tilt" mode. We present evidence that the pivot point was further west during the period 1993-2014 than during the period 1961-2002 and attribute this to a persistent upward trend in the zonal wind stress variance along the equator west of 160° W throughout the period 1961-2014. Experiments driven by the zonal component of the wind stress alone reproduce much of the trend in sea level found in the experiments driven by both components of the wind stress. The experiments show an upward trend in sea level in the eastern tropical Pacific over the period 1961-2002, but with a much stronger upward trend when using the NCEP/NCAR product. We argue that the latter is related to an overly strong eastward trend in zonal wind stress in the eastern-central Pacific that is believed to be a spurious feature of the NCEP/NCAR product.

Long-term variations of the upper atmosphere parameters on Rome ionosonde observations and their interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrone, Loredana; Mikhailov, Andrey; Cesaroni, Claudio; Alfonsi, Lucilla; Santis, Angelo De; Pezzopane, Michael; Scotto, Carlo

2017-09-01

A recently proposed self-consistent approach to the analysis of thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends has been applied to Rome ionosonde summer noontime observations for the (1957-2015) period. This approach includes: (i) a method to extract ionospheric parameter long-term variations; (ii) a method to retrieve from observed foF1 neutral composition (O, O2, N2), exospheric temperature, Tex and the total solar EUV flux with λ < 1050 Å; and (iii) a combined analysis of the ionospheric and thermospheric parameter long-term variations using the theory of ionospheric F-layer formation. Atomic oxygen, [O] and [O]/[N2] ratio control foF1 and foF2 while neutral temperature, Tex controls hmF2 long-term variations. Noontime foF2 and foF1 long-term variations demonstrate a negative linear trend estimated over the (1962-2010) period which is mainly due to atomic oxygen decrease after ˜1990. A linear trend in (δhmF2)11y estimated over the (1962-2010) period is very small and insignificant reflecting the absence of any significant trend in neutral temperature. The retrieved neutral gas density, ρ atomic oxygen, [O] and exospheric temperature, Tex long-term variations are controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity, i.e. they have a natural origin. The residual trends estimated over the period of ˜5 solar cycles (1957-2015) are very small (<0.5% per decade) and statistically insignificant.

Decline in sperm count and motility in young adult men from 2003 to 2013: observations from a U.S. sperm bank.

PubMed

Centola, G M; Blanchard, A; Demick, J; Li, S; Eisenberg, M L

2016-03-01

Controversy exists regarding stability of semen quality over time with papers reporting decrease, increase or stable parameters in heterogeneous populations. The current study examined semen parameters of young adult men from 2003 to 2013 at an urban U.S. sperm bank. Semen parameters were analyzed before and after cryopreservation for a total of 9425 specimens from 489 individuals. Demographic information was obtained from a social and medical history questionnaire. Following 2-3 days abstinence, the specimens were collected at the laboratory and assessed by uniform technicians and techniques. The data were analyzed using generalized linear regression after adjustment for age, days of abstinence, for repeated samples, as well as by the Cochran-Armitage trend test. The within variability was accounted for by the repeated measures model. All p values were two-sided with p < 0.05 considered significant. There was a significant decline in sperm concentration (-3.55, 95% CI -4.87, -2.23; p < 0.001), total motility (-1.23, 95% CI -1.65, -0.82; p < 0.001), total count (-10.75, 95% CI -15.95, -5.54; p < 0.001) and total motile count (-9.43, 95% CI -13.14, -5.73; p < 0.001). There was no significant change in semen volume (0.03, 95% CI -0.02, 0.09; p = 0.2). The post-thaw total motility significantly (-2.30, 95% CI -2.72, -1.87; p < 0.001) decreased with time. Importantly, demographic and lifestyle factors were stable or improved over the study period. There was a decline in age (p(trend) = 0.003) and alcohol use (p(trend) = 0.005) and an increase in college GPA (Grade Point Average) (p(trend) = 0.02). BMI (p(trend) = 0.73), educational attainment (p(trend) = 0.2), race/ethnicity (p(trend) = 0.53), and lifestyle habits (weekly exercise, p(trend) = 0.21; smoking, p(trend) = 0.99; marital status, p(trend) = 0.85) remained constant. Uniform technicians and techniques over the study period make measurement bias unlikely. This report demonstrates a decline in semen quality among young adult men in the Boston area who were attending or completed a college education during the past 10 years, and requires further study. © 2016 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

Slow transients recorded by the cGPS network FreDNet at the northern Adria microplate boundary (NE-Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Giuliana; Fabris, Paolo; Zuliani, David

2013-04-01

The northern tip of the Adria micro-plate (NE-Italy) is continuously monitored by the Friuli Regional Deformation Network (FReDNet) of OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale), consisting of 15 GNSS permanent sites, the first eight of which were installed between 2002 and 2004. Additional information on the strain field in the region comes from the 10 GNSS permanent sites of the Marussi network of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia regional council, some of which record continuously since 1999. Having at disposal time-series of a certain length (around ten-years), it is possible to evaluate with reliability not only the plate motion direction and velocity, represented by the linear trend of the horizontal components of the records, but also the possible plate acceleration, due to the superposition of other terms of the strain field time-space variations, with different frequency. With the aim of investigating such terms, we first processed the GPS data of the longest time series from both networks, starting from 2002, using GAMIT/GLOBK, eliminated the outliers, and filled the eventual short gaps in the data through linear interpolation. A low-band pass filter allowed obtaining the time-series cleaned from the components with frequencies higher than 1.5 years, so to eliminate the annual and quasi-annual terms, and the highest frequencies. The so-obtained time-series for the two horizontal components result dominated by a linear trend, as expected, to which clear oscillations of some years of duration are superimposed. From the analysis of the linear trend, the resulting velocity field suggest crustal shortening, with values ranging between 0.6 and 2.8 mm/year, decreasing from South to North and, more slightly, from East to West. This is in agreement with preceding observations and with the geodynamic character of the region, located in the area of convergence between Adria microplate and Eurasia. As regards as the deviations from the linear trend, the present work focuses on a sort of transient, of "period" between 1.5 and 2.0 years, involving 11 of the 13 stations considered, distributed over the whole area, and causing a bending along the main tectonic directions. In order to state, whether the transient is due to hydrologic or tectonic phenomena, data from rainfalls from the meteorological stations of the regional council networks nearest to each of the GNSS stations have been similarly analysed and compared. In particular, the cumulative de-trended curves have been considered and cross-correlated with the deformation data. The correlation, however, is generally poor. The next step will be the comparison with the seismic activity in the region, from the catalogue of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia seismological network, managed and ruled by OGS.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the Oscillation indices for North Carolina.

Ion transport with charge-protected and non-charge-protected cations using the compensated Arrhenius formalism. Part 2. Relationship between ionic conductivity and diffusion.

PubMed

Petrowsky, Matt; Fleshman, Allison; Bopege, Dharshani N; Frech, Roger

2012-08-09

Temperature-dependent ionic conductivities and cation/anion self-diffusion coefficients are measured for four electrolyte families: TbaTf-linear primary alcohols, LiTf-linear primary alcohols, TbaTf-n-alkyl acetates, and LiTf-n-alkyl acetates. The Nernst-Einstein equation does not adequately describe the data. Instead, the compensated Arrhenius formalism is applied to both conductivity and diffusion data. General trends based on temperature and alkyl chain length are observed when conductivity is plotted against cation or anion diffusion coefficient, but there is no clear pattern to the data. However, plotting conductivity exponential prefactors against those for diffusion results in four distinct curves, one each for the alcohol and acetate families described above. Furthermore, the TbaTf-alcohol and TbaTf-acetate data are "in line" with each other. The conductivity prefactors for the LiTf-alcohol data are smaller than those for the TbaTf data. The LiTf-acetate data have the lowest conductivity prefactors. This trend in prefactors mirrors the observed trend in degree of ionic association for these electrolytes.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Tennessee

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Tennessee's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level on the state test and the basic level on NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) increased in grade 8 reading and math. At grade 4, trends on the state test and NAEP differed somewhat. In…

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP. Louisiana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center on Education Policy, 2010

2010-01-01

This paper profiles Louisiana's test score trends through 2008-09. Between 2005 and 2009, trends on state tests and NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) sometimes differed. On the state test, the percentages of students reaching the proficient level increased at grades 4 and 8 in both reading and math. On NAEP, the percentage of…

Ten-year change in plasma amyloid beta levels and late-life cognitive decline.

PubMed

Okereke, Olivia I; Xia, Weiming; Selkoe, Dennis J; Grodstein, Francine

2009-10-01

Plasma levels of amyloid beta peptide (Abeta) are potential biomarkers of early cognitive impairment and decline and of Alzheimer disease risk. To relate midlife plasma Abeta measures and 10-year change in plasma Abeta measures since midlife to late-life cognitive decline. Prospective study of a population-based sample. Academic research. Plasma Abeta40 and Abeta42 levels were measured in 481 Nurses' Health Study participants in late midlife (mean age, 63.6 years) and again 10 years later (mean age, 74.6 years). Cognitive testing also began 10 years after the initial blood draw. Participants completed 3 repeated telephone-based assessments (mean span, 4.1 years). Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate relations of midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to late-life cognitive decline, as well as relations of 10-year change in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to cognitive decline. The 3 primary outcomes were the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) findings, a global score averaging the results of all tests (TICS, immediate and delayed verbal recall, category fluency, and attention), and a verbal memory score averaging the results of 4 tests of verbal recall. Higher midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios were associated with worse late-life decline on the global score (P = .04 for trend). Furthermore, increase in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios since midlife predicted greater decline in the global score (P = .03 for trend) and in the TICS (P = .02 for trend). There was no association of cognitive decline with midlife plasma Abeta42 levels alone or with change in Abeta42 levels since midlife. In this large community-dwelling sample, higher plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios in late midlife and increases in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios 10 years later were significantly associated with greater decline in global cognition at late life.

Trends of improved water and sanitation coverage around the globe between 1990 and 2010: inequality among countries and performance of official development assistance

PubMed Central

Cha, Seungman; Mankadi, Paul Mansiangi; Elhag, Mousab Siddig; Lee, Yongjoo; Jin, Yan

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: As the Millennium Development Goals ended, and were replaced by the Sustainable Development Goals, efforts have been made to evaluate the achievements and performance of official development assistance (ODA) in the health sector. In this study, we explore trends in the expansion of water and sanitation coverage in developing countries and the performance of ODA. Design: We explored inequality across developing countries by income level, and investigated how ODA for water and sanitation was committed by country, region, and income level. Changes in inequality were tested via slope changes by investigating the interaction of year and income level with a likelihood ratio test. A random effects model was applied according to the results of the Hausman test. Results: The slope of the linear trend between economic level and sanitation coverage has declined over time. However, a random effects model suggested that the change in slope across years was not significant (e.g. for the slope change between 2000 and 2010: likelihood ratio χ2 = 2.49, probability > χ2 = 0.1146). A similar pro-rich pattern across developing countries and a non-significant change in the slope associated with different economic levels were demonstrated for water coverage. Our analysis shows that the inequality of water and sanitation coverage among countries across the world has not been addressed effectively during the past decade. Our findings demonstrate that the countries with the least coverage persistently received far less ODA per capita than did countries with much more extensive water and sanitation coverage, suggesting that ODA for water and sanitation is poorly targeted. Conclusion: The most deprived countries should receive more attention for water and sanitation improvements from the world health community. A strong political commitment to ODA targeting the countries with the least coverage is needed at the global level. PMID:28604256

Clinical effectiveness of vitamin E and vitamin B6 for improving pain severity in cyclic mastalgia.

PubMed

Shobeiri, Fatemeh; Oshvandi, Khodayar; Nazari, Mansour

2015-01-01

Recent attempts have been focused on employing chemical and natural supplemental agents for treatment of cyclic mastalgia. Among various agents, the potential effects of vitamins remain questionable. In the present study, we examined the efficacy of two types of these vitamin supplements (vitamin E and vitamin B6) in improving pain severity in cyclic mastalgia. In a randomized double-blinded clinical trial, 80 patients suffering from cyclic mastalgia were randomly assigned to receive 200 IU of vitamin E daily or 40 mg/day of vitamin B6 for 2 months. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants. Severity of breast pain was detected by the Cardiff breast pain score during one menstrual cycle before and two menstrual cycles after the intervention. Data were analyzed using t-test, Chi-squared test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and regression with SPSS version 19 and P < 0.05 was considered significant. There was no significant difference in the mean of severity of cyclic mastalgia during one menstrual cycle before the intervention between the vitamin E and B6 groups (9.1 ± 2.1 and 8.4 ± 3.1, respectively), but the difference was significant during the first cycle (5.1 ± 1.6 and 5.2 ± 2.5, respectively) and the second menstrual cycle (2.3 ± 1.0 and 2.6 ± 2.0, respectively) in the two groups after the intervention. The trend of changes in pain severity score showed significant downward trend of pain severity score within the study period in both the treatment groups (P < 0.001), while these trends were similar in both groups when examined by the repeated-measure ANOVA test. By multivariable linear regression analysis adjusted for baseline variables, we found that both the treatment regimens resulted in similar reduction in breast pain severity (P = 0.067). Both regimens containing vitamin E and vitamin B6 are similar in reducing breast pain severity in cyclic mastalgia.

Trends in cancer incidence in female breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, and ovary in India.

PubMed

Yeole, Balkrishna B

2008-01-01

Trends in breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and ovarian cancers in six population based cancer registries (Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal, and Barshi) were evaluated over a period of the last two decades. For studying trends we used a model that fits this data is the logarithm of Y=ABx which represents a Linear Regression model. This approach showed a decreasing trend for cancer of the cervix and increasing trends for cancers of breast, ovary and corpus uteri throughout the entire period of observation in most of the registries. The four cancers, breast, cervix, corpus uteri and ovary, constitute more than 50% of total cancers in women. As all these cancers are increasing, to understand their etiology in depth, analytic epidemiology studies should be planned in a near future on a priority basis.

State Test Score Trends through 2008-09, Part 1: Rising Scores on State Tests and NAEP

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chudowsky, Naomi; Chudowsky, Victor

2010-01-01

In recent years, scores on the annual state reading and mathematics tests used for accountability have gone up in most states. These trends in state test scores do not always coincide, however, with trends on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the federally sponsored assessment that is administered periodically to…

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

CD4 count-based failure criteria combined with viral load monitoring may trigger worse switch decisions than viral load monitoring alone.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Christopher J; Maritz, Jean; van Zyl, Gert U

2016-02-01

CD4 count decline often triggers antiretroviral regimen switches in resource-limited settings, even when viral load testing is available. We therefore compared CD4 failure and CD4 trends in patients with viraemia with or without antiretroviral resistance. Retrospective cohort study investigating the association of HIV drug resistance with CD4 failure or CD4 trends in patients on first-line antiretroviral regimens during viraemia. Patients with viraemia (HIV RNA >1000 copies/ml) from two HIV treatment programmes in South Africa (n = 350) were included. We investigated the association of M184V and NNRTI resistance with WHO immunological failure criteria and CD4 count trends, using chi-square tests and linear mixed models. Fewer patients with the M184V mutation reached immunologic failure criteria than those without: 51 of 151(34%) vs. 90 of 199 (45%) (P = 0.03). Similarly, 79 of 220 (36%) patients, who had major NNRTI resistance, had immunological failure, whereas 62 of 130 (48%) without (chi-square P = 0.03) did. The CD4 count decline among patients with the M184V mutation was 2.5 cells/mm(3) /year, whereas in those without M184V it was 14 cells/mm(3) /year (P = 0.1), but the difference in CD4 count decline with and without NNRTI resistance was marginal. Our data suggest that CD4 count monitoring may lead to inappropriate delayed therapy switches for patients with HIV drug resistance. Conversely, patients with viraemia but no drug resistance are more likely to have a CD4 count decline and thus may be more likely to be switched to a second-line regimen. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends in HIV infection surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Norway, 1995-2011

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent reports on the growing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the EU/EEA area were accompanied by an increase of reported HIV among MSM in Oslo, Norway in 2003. Our study with data from 1995 to 2011 has described the recent trends of HIV among MSM in Norway and their socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics. Methods The data were collected from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases. Cases were described by age, place of infection, clinical presentation of HIV infection, STI co-infection and source partner. We used simple linear regression to estimate trends over time. Results During the study period, 991 MSM, aged from 16 to 80 years, were newly diagnosed with HIV. No significant trends over time in overall median age (36 years) were observed. Most of the MSM (505, 51%) were infected in Oslo. In the years 1995-2002, 30 to 45 MSM were diagnosed with HIV each year, while in the years 2003-2011 this increased to between 56 and 97 cases. The proportion of MSM, presenting with either AIDS or HIV illness, decreased over time, while asymptomatic and acute HIV illness increased (p for trend=0.034 or less). STI co-infection was reported in 133 (13%) cases. An overall increase of syphilis co-infected cases was observed (p for trend <0.001). A casual partner was a source of infection in 590 cases (60%). Conclusions Though the increases described could be attributed to earlier testing and diagnosis, no change in the median age of cases was observed. This indicates that it is likely that there has been an increase in HIV infections among MSM in Norway since 2003. The simultaneous increase in STI co-infections indicates risky sexual behaviour and a potential to spread both HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. PMID:23414557

Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinowska, Miroslawa

2017-12-01

The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil.

PubMed

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. Apresentar uma atualização das tendências da mortalidade da asma no Brasil em duas faixas etárias: 0-4 anos e 5-34 anos. Dados relativos ao período de 1980 a 2014 referentes à mortalidade da asma, conforme se definiu na Classificação Internacional de Doenças, foram extraídos Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Departamento de Tecnologia da Informação do Sistema Único de Saúde. Para analisar as tendências temporais das taxas padronizadas de mortalidade da asma, realizou-se um estudo ecológico de séries temporais com modelos de regressão para as faixas etárias de 0 a 4 anos e 5 a 34 anos. Houve uma tendência linear de redução da mortalidade da asma em ambas as faixas etárias e uma tendência polinomial de terceira ordem na população geral. Embora a mortalidade da asma tenha apresentado redução linear consistente em indivíduos com idade ≤ 34 anos, a taxa de declínio foi maior na faixa etária de 0 a 4 anos. A faixa etária de 5 a 34 anos também apresentou redução linear da mortalidade, e essa redução tornou-se mais pronunciada após o ano de 2004, quando o tratamento com corticosteroides inalatórios tornou-se mais amplamente disponível. A redução linear da mortalidade da asma em ambas as faixas etárias contrasta com a tendência não linear observada na população geral do Brasil. A introdução do uso de corticosteroides inalatórios por meio de políticas públicas de controle da asma coincidiu com uma diminuição significativa das taxas de mortalidade da asma em ambos os subgrupos de indivíduos com mais de 5 anos de idade. As causas dessa redução da mortalidade da asma em faixas etárias mais jovens ainda são objeto de debate.

Total ozone trends and variability during 1979-2012 from merged data sets of various satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chehade, W.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2014-07-01

The study presents a long-term statistical trend analysis of total ozone data sets obtained from various satellites. A multi-variate linear regression was applied to annual mean zonal mean data using various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables that represent dynamical and chemical processes which modify global ozone distributions in a changing climate. The study investigated the magnitude and zonal distribution of the different atmospheric chemical and dynamical factors contributing to long-term total ozone changes. The regression model included the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the 11-year solar cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), stratospheric aerosol loading describing the effects from major volcanic eruptions, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic and Antarctic oscillation (AO/AAO), and accumulated eddy heat flux (EHF), the latter representing changes due to the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The total ozone column data set used here comprises the Solar Backscater Ultraviolet SBUV/SBUV-2 merged ozone data set (MOD) V8.6, the merged data set of the Solar Backscaterr Ultraviolet, the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument SBUV/TOMS/OMI (1979-2012) MOD V8.0 and the merged data set of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, the Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartograpHY and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 (GSG) (1995-2012). The trend analysis was performed for twenty-six 5° wide latitude bands from 65° S to 65° N, and the analysis explained most of the ozone variability to within 70 to 90%. The results show that QBO dominates the ozone variability in the tropics (±7 DU) while at higher latitudes, the dynamical indices, AO/AAO and eddy heat flux, have substantial influence on total ozone variations by up to ±10 DU. The contribution from volcanic aerosols is only prominent during the major eruption periods (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo), and together with the ENSO signal, is more evident in the Northern Hemisphere. The signature of the solar cycle covers all latitudes and contributes about 10 DU from solar maximum to solar minimum. EESC is found to be a main contributor to the long-term ozone decline and the trend changes after the end of the 1990s. From the EESC fits, statistically significant upward trends after 1997 were found in the extratropics, which points at the slowing of ozone decline and the onset of ozone recovery. The EESC based trends are compared with the trends obtained from the statistical piecewise linear trend (PWLT) model (known as hockey stick) with a turnaround in 1997 to examine the differences between both approaches. In case of the SBUV merged V8.6 data the EESC and PWLT trends before and after 1997 are in good agreement (within 2 σ), however, the positive post-1997 linear trends from the PWLT regression are not significant within 2 σ. A sensitivity study is carried out by comparing the regression results, using SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 merged time series (1979-2012) and a merged data set combining SBUV/SBUV-2 (1979-June 1995) and GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 ("GSG") WFDOAS (Weighting Function DOAS) (July 1995-2012) as well as SBUV/TOMS/OMI MOD V8.0 (1979-2012) in the regression analysis in order to investigate the uncertainty in the long-term trends due to different ozone data sets and data versions. Replacing the late SBUV/SBUV-2 merged data record with GSG data (unscaled and adjusted) leads to very similar results demonstrating the high consistency between satellite data sets. However, the comparison of the new SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 with the MOD V8.0 and MOD8.6/GSG data showed somewhat smaller sensitivities with regard to several proxies as well as the linear EESC trends. On the other hand, the PWLT trends after 1997 show some differences, however, within the 2 σ error bars the PWLT trends agree with each other for all three data sets.

Aerosol radiative effects and their trends under clear-sky situations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartok, Blanka

2017-04-01

In the literature great uncertainties ca be found regarding radiative effects of aerosols on the energy budget of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2013). In the study the aerosols radiative effects on clear-sky solar radiation are quantified over Europe using empirical and physical modelling approaches. The values of aerosol radiation effect are determined by the MAGIC radiation code. In the first run clear-sky radiation is calculated integrating KINEE/MPI/Aerocom aerosol climatology and ERA-INTERIM water vapour multiannual monthly means. In the next run the clear-sky radiation are also calculated ignoring aerosol data (adjusted to 0) from the algorithm. Both runs were carried out for each months of the year, taking into account the varying astrological factors. The difference between the aerosol-included and aerosol-free clear-sky radiation is equal to the absolute aerosol radiative effect in W/m2. The annual mean of the surface aerosol radiative effects in clear-sky situations over Europe is -7.1 ± 2.9 W/m2, high values are representing the central part of the continent and the Mediterranean Basin. Furthermore the trends of the aerosol radiative effects are also determined for the period of 2001-2012. First a linear fitting is elaborated between the aerosol optical depth (AOT) built in the MAGIC code and its aerosol radiative effect calculated by the code. Next, based on these linear functions a radiative effect values are assigned to each monthly AOT500 value available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra Level-3 experiment. In this way a new dataset of aerosol radiative effect for the period of 2001-2012 has been created. Beside of this approach the changes in aerosol radiative effects are also calculated based on ground-based clear-sky radiation trends. This approach is used as a validation of the method applied in earlier stage, mainly for the linear fitting. The starting point of this approach is to elaborate the trends of clear-sky radiation controlled by the effects of aerosols and water vapour. If we subtract the water vapour effects also calculated by MAGIC radiation code from this trend, the magnitude of the trends in aerosol radiative effects can be estimated. In this case it is assumed that the two effects do not amplify and do not cancel each other, and their arithmetic sum gives the change in clear-sky radiation trend. The two approaches give good fit, based on the direct (modelled) approach the annual trend of the aerosol radiative effects on clear-sky solar surface radiation is -4.41 W/m2 per decade for the period of 2001-2013, while in the case of the indirect approach (based on clear-sky trends) this trend is found to be -4.46 W/m2 per decade.

Repeated aerosol-vapor JP-8 jet fuel exposure affects neurobehavior and neurotransmitter levels in a rat model.

PubMed

Baldwin, Carol M; Figueredo, Aurelio J; Wright, Lynda S; Wong, Simon S; Witten, Mark L

2007-07-01

Four groups of Fischer Brown Norway hybrid rats were exposed for 5, 10, 15, or 20 d to aerosolized-vapor jet propulsion fuel 8 (JP-8) compared to freely moving (5 and 10-d exposures) or sham-confined controls (15 and 20-d exposures). Behavioral testing utilized the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Functional Observational Battery. Exploratory ethological factor analysis identified three salient factors (central nervous system [CNS] excitability, autonomic 1, and autonomic 2) for use in profiling JP-8 exposure in future studies. The factors were used as dependent variables in general linear modeling. Exposed animals were found to engage in more rearing and hyperaroused behavior compared to controls, replicating prior JP-8 exposure findings. Exposed animals also showed increasing but rapidly decelerating stool output (autonomic 1), and a significant increasing linear trend for urine output (autonomic 2). No significant trends were noted for either of the control groups for the autonomic factors. Rats from each of the groups for each of the time frames were randomly selected for tissue assay from seven brain regions for neurotransmitter levels. Hippocampal DOPAC was significantly elevated after 4-wk JP-8 exposure compared to both control groups, suggesting increased dopamine release and metabolism. Findings indicate that behavioral changes do not appear to manifest until wk 3 and 4 of exposure, suggesting the need for longitudinal studies to determine if these behaviors occur due to cumulative exposure, or due to behavioral sensitization related to repeated exposure to aerosolized-vapor JP-8.

Associations between Dietary Intake of Choline and Betaine and Lung Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Ying, Jun; Rahbar, Mohammad H.; Hallman, D. Michael; Hernandez, Ladia M.; Spitz, Margret R.; Forman, Michele R.; Gorlova, Olga Y.

2013-01-01

Evidence from human and animal research indicates that choline metabolic pathways may be activated during a variety of diseases, including cancer. We report results of a case-control study of 2821 lung cancer cases and 2923 controls that assessed associations of choline and betaine dietary intakes with lung cancer. Using multivariable logistic regression analyses, we report a significant association between higher betaine intake and lower lung cancer risk that varied by smoking status. Specifically, no significant association was observed between betaine intake and lung cancer among never-smokers. However, higher betaine intake was significantly associated with reduced lung cancer risk among smokers, and the protective effect was more evident among current than former smokers: for former and current smokers, the ORs (95% CI) of lung cancer for individuals with highest as compared to lowest quartiles of intake were 0.70(0.55–0.88) and 0.51(0.39–0.66) respectively. Significant linear trend of higher betaine intake and lower lung cancer risk was observed among both former (ptrend = 0.002) and current (ptrend<0.0001) smokers. A similar protective effect was also observed with choline intake both in overall analysis as well as among current smokers, with p-values for chi-square tests being 0.001 and 0.004 respectively, but the effect was less evident, as no linear trend was observed. Our results suggest that choline and betaine intake, especially higher betaine intake, may be protective against lung cancer through mitigating the adverse effect of smoking. PMID:23383301

Consumption of a high glycemic load but not a high glycemic index diet is marginally associated with oxidative stress in young women.

PubMed

Arikawa, Andrea Y; Jakits, Holly E; Flood, Andrew; Thomas, William; Gross, Myron; Schmitz, Kathryn H; Kurzer, Mindy S

2015-01-01

Research studies have suggested that chronic consumption of high glycemic index foods may lead to chronically high oxidative stress. This is important because oxidative stress is suspected to be an early event in the etiology of many disease processes. We hypothesized that dietary glycemic index and glycemic load were positively associated with oxidative stress assessed by plasma F2-isoprostanes in healthy, premenopausal women (body mass index [BMI] = 24.7 ± 4.8 kg/m(2) and age 25.3 ± 3.5 years, mean ± SD). We measured plasma F2-isoprostanes in 306 healthy premenopausal women at the baseline visit for the Women In Steady Exercise Research study, using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Dietary glycemic index and load were calculated from the National Cancer Institute Diet History Questionnaire, and participants were divided into quartiles of dietary glycemic index and of glycemic load. Plasma F2-isoprostanes were compared across quartile groups of dietary glycemic index and glycemic load using linear regression models. Plasma F2-isoprostanes (pg/mL) increased with quartile of glycemic load (test for linear trend, P = .033), and also increased with quartile of glycemic index in participants with BMI ≥ 25 (P = .035) but not in those with BMI <25 (P = .924). After adjustment for BMI, alcohol consumption and total energy intake, both these positive trends remained marginally significant (P = .123 for quartiles of glycemic index and P = .065 for quartiles of glycemic load). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

2012-01-01

Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent concentration and three explanatory variables—the natural log of discharge, time, and season. ESTIMATOR uses two additional explanatory variables—the square of the log of discharge and time-squared. Both models determine coefficients for variables for a series of estimation windows. ESTIMATOR establishes variable coefficients for a series of 9-year moving windows; all observed constituent concentration data within the 9-year window are used to establish each coefficient. Conversely, WRTDS establishes variable coefficients for each combination of discharge and time using only observed concentration data that are similar in time, season, and discharge to the day being estimated. As a result of these distinguishing characteristics, ESTIMATOR reproduces concentration-discharge relations that are closely approximated by a quadratic or linear function with respect to both the log of discharge and time. Conversely, the linear model form of WRTDS coupled with extensive model windowing for each combination of discharge and time allows WRTDS to reproduce observed concentration-discharge relations that are more sinuous in form. Another distinction between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS is the reporting of uncertainty associated with the model estimates of flux and trend. ESTIMATOR quantifies the standard error of prediction associated with the determination of flux and trends. The standard error of prediction enables the determination of the 95-percent confidence intervals for flux and trend as well as the ability to test whether the reported trend is significantly different from zero (where zero equals no trend). Conversely, WRTDS is unable to propagate error through the many (over 5,000) models for unique combinations of flow and time to determine a total standard error. As a result, WRTDS flux estimates are not reported with confidence intervals and a level of significance is not determined for flow-normalized fluxes. The differences between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS, with regard to model form and determination of model coefficients, have an influence on the determination of nutrient and sediment fluxes and associated changes in flux over time as a result of management activities. The comparison between the model estimates of flux and trend was made for combinations of five water-quality constituents at nine River Input Monitoring stations. The major findings with regard to nutrient and sediment fluxes are as follows: (1)WRTDS produced estimates of flux for all combinations that were more accurate, based on reduction in root mean squared error, than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (2) for 67 percent of the combinations, WRTDS and ESTIMATOR both produced estimates of flux that were minimally biased compared to observed fluxes(flux bias = tendency to over or underpredict flux observations); however, for 33 percent of the combinations, WRTDS produced estimates of flux that were considerably less biased (by at least 10 percent) than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (3) the average percent difference in annual fluxes generated by ESTIMATOR and WRTDS was less than 10 percent at 80 percent of the combinations; and (4) the greatest differences related to flux bias and annual fluxes all occurred for combinations where the pattern in observed concentration-discharge relation was sinuous (two points of inflection) rather than linear or quadratic (zero or one point of inflection). The major findings with regard to trends are as follows: (1) both models produce water-quality trends that have factored in the year-to-year variations in flow; (2) trends in water-quality condition are represented by ESTIMATOR as a trend in flow-adjusted concentration and by WRTDS as a flow normalized flux; (3) for 67 percent of the combinations with trend estimates, the WRTDS trends in flow-normalized flux are in the same direction and magnitude to the ESTIMATOR trends in flow-adjusted concentration, and at the remaining 33 percent the differences in trend magnitude and direction are related to fundamental differences between concentration and flux; and (4) the majority (85 percent) of the total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus combinations exhibited long-term (1985 to 2010) trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate improvement or reduction in associated flux and the majority (83 percent) of the total phosphorus (from 1985 to 2010) and suspended sediment (from 2001 to 2010) combinations exhibited trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate degradation or increases in the flux delivered.

Mineral exploration and fracture trends in Utah and Nevada, by ERTS-1 imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Smith, M. R.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Major structural trends have been compiled on five separate maps, at a scale of 1:1,000,000, of Utah and Nevada from ERTS-1 imagery. An arbitrary length of ten kilometers has been chosen as a minimum length of the trends. The selection is based upon: (1) obvious displacement of structures; (2) continuity or persistence of trends across structures; (3) line-up of outcrop patterns, drainage, erosional features or vegetation; and (4) near-linear trends. Several recognizable trend directions have noted, viz., N 10-15 deg W, N 35 deg W, N 80 deg W, N 30 deg E, and E-W. More than 1500 structural trends have been identified, some of which are mineralized and extend into pediment or shallow alluvial cover. Those fracture trends that exhibit mineralization in exposed bedrock will be assayed for mercury content with a soil-gas analyzer and similar collection will be done over alluvial posture blankets by the same technique with the hope of discovering blind mineralized zones that are not exposed on the surface.

Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the upstrean Hing-she station raise vivestok Sing-She stations are that ammonia on a upward trend, BOD5 no significant change in trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, river pollution index (RPI) a slight downward trend. Dong-gang River Basin , but the progress of sewer construction in slow. To reduce pollation in this river effort shoul be made regulatory reform on livestock waste control and acceleration of sewer construction. Keywords: quantile regression analysis, BOD5, RPI

Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisi, Ozgur; Ay, Murat

2014-05-01

Low, medium and high values of a parameter are very important issues in climatological, meteorological and hydrological events. Moreover these values are used to decide various design parameters based on scientific aspects and real applications everywhere in the world. With this concept, a new trend method recently proposed by Şen was used for water parameters, pH, T, EC, Na+, K+, CO3-2, HCO3-, Cl-, SO4-2, B+3 and Q recorded at five different stations (station numbers and locations: 1535-Sogutluhan (Sivas), 1501-Yamula (Kayseri), 1546-Tuzkoy (Kayseri), 1503-Yahsihan (Kirsehir), and 1533-Inozu (Samsun)) selected from the Kizilirmak River in Turkey. Low, medium and high values of the parameters were graphically evaluated with this method. For comparison purposes, the Mann-Kendall trend test was also applied to the same data. Differences of the two trend tests were also emphasised. It was found that the Şen trend test compared with the MK trend test had several advantages. The results also revealed that the Şen trend test could be successfully used for trend analysis of water parameters especially in terms of evaluation of low, medium and high values of data.

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by individual medical centers to provide advanced warning of future influenza cases.

Secular trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity across Australian states: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ho, Ngoc-Thuy-Vi Sophia; Olds, Tim; Schranz, Natasha; Maher, Carol

2017-05-01

To describe secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children in each state and territory. Systematic search and numerical meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted to identify all sources that objectively measured the height and weight of Australian children (aged 2-18 years) and had a sample size of at least 300. Raw and summary data were requested from authors and divided into age×sex×state×yearly slices to derive estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Following a double arcsine transformation to facilitate meta-analysis, all estimates were standardised for age, stratified by sex and analysed using sample-weighted non-linear regressions. The systematic search identified 73 eligible sources (47 raw and 26 summary datasets), with 72.8% of data sourced from Victoria and South Australia. Prevalence trends varied from state to state, with three states or territories showing a marked plateau, two showing a decline in the more recent years and three showing continued linear increases. Tasmania and Northern Territory generally had the highest prevalence (30.2% and 24.3% overweight and obesity respectively), and the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest (12.4% overweight and obesity). Prevalence, as well as prevalence trends, varied amongst Australian states and territories. At a national level, the prevalence trend has nearly plateaued for the past 15 years. However, upward prevalence trends appear to be persisting in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Findings highlight the need for ongoing efforts to address the issue of childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variations of global gravity waves derived from 14 years of SABER temperature observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Garcia, Rolando R.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin; Wu, Dong L.; Nakamura, Takuji

2017-06-01

The global gravity wave (GW) potential energy (PE) per unit mass is derived from SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature profiles over the past 14 years (2002-2015). Since the SABER data cover longer than one solar cycle, multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate the trend (means linear trend from 2002 to 2015) of global GW PE and the responses of global GW PE to solar activity, to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) and to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We find a significant positive trend of GW PE at around 50°N during July from 2002 to 2015, in agreement with ground-based radar observations at a similar latitude but from 1990 to 2010. Both the monthly and the deseasonalized trends of GW PE are significant near 50°S. Specifically, the deseasonalized trend of GW PE has a positive peak of 12-15% per decade at 40°S-50°S and below 60 km, which suggests that eddy diffusion is increasing in some places. A significant positive trend of GW PE near 50°S could be due to the strengthening of the polar stratospheric jets, as documented from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications wind data. The response of GW PE to solar activity is negative in the lower and middle latitudes. The response of GW PE to QBO (as indicated by 30 hPa zonal winds over the equator) is negative in the tropical upper stratosphere and extends to higher latitudes at higher altitudes. The response of GW PE to ENSO (as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index) is positive in the tropical upper stratosphere.

Piezoelectric Non Linear Nanomechanical Temperature and Acceleration Insensitive Clocks (PENNTAC)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

requirements dictated by the Defense Advanced Research Agency (DARPA) program. Figure 7: Measured PN Response of the Non -linear 222 MHz AlN...wavelength (λ) are designed as supports for resonators in which the dimensions of the vibrating body are kept fixed. The Q extracted experimentally confirms...conditions. In this way, we are able to quantitatively predict Q due to anchor losses and qualitatively describe the trends observed experimentally

The developing human brain: age-related changes in cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar anatomy.

PubMed

Sussman, Dafna; Leung, Rachel C; Chakravarty, M Mallar; Lerch, Jason P; Taylor, Margot J

2016-04-01

This study is the first to characterize normal development and sex differences across neuroanatomical structures in cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar brain regions in a single large cohort. One hundred and ninety-two magnetic resonance images were examined from 96 typically developing females and 96 age-matched typically developing males from 4 to 18 years of age. Image segmentation of the cortex was conducted with CIVET, while that of the cerebellum, hippocampi, thalamus, and basal ganglia were conducted using the MAGeT algorithm. Cortical thickness analysis revealed that most cortical regions decrease linearly, while surface area increases linearly with age. Volume relative to total cerebrum followed a quadratic trend with age, with only the left supramarginal gyrus showing sexual dimorphism. Hippocampal relative volume increased linearly, while the thalamus, caudate, and putamen decreased linearly, and the cerebellum did not change with age. The relative volumes of several subcortical subregions followed inverted U-shaped trends that peaked at ~12 years of age. Many subcortical structures were found to be larger in females than in males, independently of age, while others showed a sex-by-age interaction. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar growth patterns during normal development, and draws attention to the role of sex on neuroanatomical maturation throughout childhood and adolescence.

Apparatus and method for epileptic seizure detection using non-linear techniques

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1998-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically detecting epileptic seizures by monitoring and analyzing brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; determining that one or more trends in the nonlinear measures indicate a seizure, and providing notification of seizure occurrence.

Long-term variability and changes of the precipitation regime in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2014-05-01

This paper presents an examination of precipitation amounts in Pakistan. For this purpose, the annual precipitation and the annual number of precipitation days have been calculated, and a study aimed at investigating precipitation intensity and decadal changes was conducted. Precipitation trends have been calculated using a simple linear regression method and Kendall's tau-based test. To assess stability and differences, a 10-year span was determined for each precipitation region for the period of 1951-2010. This study focused on the three CLINO (Climatological Normal) periods, namely 1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010 (the latest global standard normal period). Results confirm the gradual increase of annual precipitation in southwestern coastal areas of Pakistan and Cholistan desert. With regard to annual number of precipitation days, in the central part of the country negative trends were evident for wet days (with precipitation ≧ 0.1 mm), while the number of rainy days (with precipitation ≧ 1 mm) displayed a prominent positive trend. The series of the precipitation intensity gives evidence of a minor decrease in the Baluchistan Plateau, sub-Himalayas, and Potwar Plateau during the study period. Examination of secular trends evidenced that the Murree hills, the upper Indus plain, and the northwestern Baluchistan plateau have had shifts in their precipitation regime towards drier conditions, while the central plain, the northwestern mountains, and the southern part of the country are shifting in their precipitation regime towards wetter conditions. Description among the means of precipitation amounts suggests that "normal" precipitation data for various national projects should be calculated for the last 30 years.

Bayes Factor based on the Trend Test Incorporating Hardy-Weinberg Disequilibrium: More Powerful to Detect Genetic Association

PubMed Central

Xu, Jinfeng; Yuan, Ao; Zheng, Gang

2012-01-01

Summary In the analysis of case-control genetic association, the trend test and Pearson’s test are the two most commonly used tests. In genome-wide association studies (GWAS), Bayes factor is a useful tool to support significant p-values, and a better measure than p-value when results are compared across studies with different sample sizes. When reporting the p-value of the trend test, we propose a Bayes factor directly based on the trend test. To improve the power to detect association under recessive or dominant genetic models, we propose a Bayes factor based on the trend test and incorporating Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium in cases. When the true model is unknown, or both the trend test and Pearson’s test or other robust tests are applied in genome-wide scans, we propose a joint Bayes factor, combining the previous two Bayes factors. All three Bayes factors studied in this paper have closed forms and are easy to compute without integrations, so they can be reported along with p-values, especially in GWAS. We discuss how to use each of them and how to specify priors. Simulation studies and applications to three GWAS are provided to illustrate their usefulness to detect non-additive gene susceptibility in practice. PMID:22607017

A comparison of the lubrication behavior of whey protein model foods using tribology in linear and elliptical movement.

PubMed

Campbell, Caroline L; Foegeding, E Allen; van de Velde, Fred

2017-08-01

Lubrication is an important factor in the sensory evaluation of food products. Tribology provides a theoretical framework and instrumental methods for evaluating frictional properties between two moving surfaces and the lubrication behavior of products between these surfaces. Relating frictional measurements to sensory properties detected during oral processing requires careful and pertinent choices in surface materials and testing conditions. The aims of this study were to investigate: (a) differences in lubrication behavior of a range of food textures and (b) the differences between linear and elliptical movement and added saliva to understand the contribution of food structure to friction. Six whey protein model food samples, ranging in texture from fluid to semisolid to soft solid, were analyzed using a pin on disk tribometer to determine the coefficient of friction (COF) across a range of sliding speeds. The samples were analyzed in their initial form and post-oral processing (n = 4) in both linear and elliptical movements. Elliptical movement slightly decreased coefficients of friction and extended the shape of the friction curve. Increases in test food viscosity decreased the COF but differences in viscosity were not apparent when test foods were mixed with saliva. Data correction for viscosity shifted the friction curves horizontally, indicating that lubrication had a greater impact upon friction than viscosity. This study provides initial insights for further comparison of linear and elliptical movement with a variety of sample compositions. Sensory perception of smoothness and creaminess are often major contributors to overall hedonic food liking and are a major reason why products high in fat and sugar are more highly preferred over other foods. These parameters are influenced by friction and lubrication between the tongue, palate, teeth, food products, and saliva during oral processing. Tribology provides an instrumental method to evaluate friction between moving surfaces that mimic oral surfaces and the lubrication behavior of foods. Trends in frictional measurements can be correlated with sensory ratings of the same foods to better understand why preferences exist for certain foods or food compositions and how to effectively improve the acceptability and enjoyment of healthier foods. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating population trends with a linear model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Collins, Brian D.; Morrison, R.I.G.

2003-01-01

We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

2014-09-01

Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

Intimate Partner Violence and HIV Risk Behaviors Among Socially Disadvantaged Chilean Women

PubMed Central

Miner, Sarah; Ferrer, Lilian; Cianelli, Rosina; Bernales, Margarita; Cabieses, Báltica

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine if a relationship exists between intimate partner violence (IPV) and HIV risk among socioeconomically disadvantaged Chilean women. A correlational analysis with data from the NIH-funded project, “Testing an HIV/AIDS Prevention Intervention for Chilean Women,” was conducted. Two hundred and sixtyone women were included in this analysis (n = 261). Those women who had experienced any type of IPV in the past 3 months had significantly higher risk for HIV than those who had not (t = −2.016, p < .05). Also a linear trend was found among those women who had experienced more than one type of IPV in the past 3 months and HIV risk. PMID:21486859

Disparities in Prevalence of Smoking and Smoking Cessation during Pregnancy: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Dias-Damé, Josiane L.; Cesar, Juraci A.

2015-01-01

Objective. To examine time trends in prevalence of smoking and smoking cessation during pregnancy by family income, maternal level of education, skin color, and age. Methods. We conducted three population-based surveys in 2007, 2010, and 2013 with newly delivered mothers living in the municipality of Rio Grande, Southern Brazil. Data were collected using questionnaires administered after delivery in all (two) maternity units in the city, at Dr. Miguel Riet Corrêa Júnior Hospital and at Santa Casa de Misericórdia. Time trends were analyzed using chi-square test for linear trend. Results. Data of 7,572 women showed that the prevalence of smoking before pregnancy decreased from 28% (26.2–29.7) in 2007 to 22% (20.8–24.0) in 2013 (P < 0.001). Prevalence of smoking during pregnancy decreased from 22% (20.4–23.7) in 2007 to 18% (16.6–19.5) in 2013 (P < 0.001). This reduction varied across income ranging from 17% (poorest) to 35% (richest) (P < 0.001). The lower the income, the higher the smoking prevalence during pregnancy. Smoking cessation was more prevalent among women of higher level of education and income. Conclusions. Smoking before and during pregnancy is still highly prevalent and the prevalence of cessation is low pointing to a need to strengthen actions targeting low-income, less educated, black pregnant women. PMID:26075231

[Trends in HIV prevalence and associated risk behaviors in female sex workers in Catalonia (Spain)].

PubMed

Folch, Cinta; Casabona, Jordi; Sanclemente, Cristina; Esteve, Anna; González, Victoria

2014-01-01

To describe trends in HIV prevalence, sexual risk behaviors and other sexual health indicators in female sex workers (SW) from 2005 to 2011. Cross-sectional studies were conducted biennially among SW recruited in Catalonia (Spain) in the street, flats and clubs (n = 400). In addition to an anonymous questionnaire, oral fluid samples were collected to estimate HIV prevalence. Linear trends in proportions were assessed by the Mantel test. The percentage of SW who used condoms inconsistently with clients (past 6 months) increased from 5.1% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2011 (p = 0.005); this percentage also increased with steady partners (86.2% in 2005 to 94.4% in 2011, p = 0.002). The prevalence of self-reported sexually transmitted infections (STI) increased from 14% in 2005 to 20.6% in 2011 (p = 0.001). The prevalence of HIV held constant over the years (about 2%), being higher in Spanish women (14.7% in 2011). The prevalence of HIV in SW remained stable over the years, being higher in Spanish SW. The increase in unprotected sex and in the prevalence of self-reported STI among SW from 2005 to 2011 highlights a possible relaxation in preventive behaviors in this group. Interventions to reduce the transmission of these infections, as well as unwanted pregnancies, should continue in Catalonia in SW. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

2017-09-01

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable.

A Steeper than Linear Disk Mass-Stellar Mass Scaling Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascucci, Ilaria; SLICK, EOS

2017-01-01

The disk mass is among the most important input parameter of planet formation models as it determines the number and masses of the planets that can form. I will present an ALMA 887 micron survey of the disk population around objects from 2 to 0.03Msun in the nearby 2 Myr-old Chamaeleon I star-forming region. Assuming isothermal and optically thin emission, we convert the 887 micron flux densities into dust disk masses (Mdust) and show that the Mdust-Mstar scaling relation is steeper than linear. By re-analyzing all millimeter data available for nearby regions in a self-consistent way, we find that the 1-3 Myr-old regions of Taurus, Lupus, and Chamaeleon I share the same Mdust-Mstar relation, while the 10 Myr-old Upper Sco association has an even steeper relation. Theoretical models of grain growth, drift, and fragmentation reproduce this trend and suggest that disks are in the fragmentation-limited regime. In this regime millimeter grains will be located closer in around lower-mass stars, a prediction that can be tested with deeper and higher spatial resolution ALMA observations.

Teaching High School Students Machine Learning Algorithms to Analyze Flood Risk Factors in River Deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, R.; Aizenman, H.; Mei, E.; Choudhury, N.

2013-12-01

High School students interested in the STEM fields benefit most when actively participating, so I created a series of learning modules on how to analyze complex systems using machine-learning that give automated feedback to students. The automated feedbacks give timely responses that will encourage the students to continue testing and enhancing their programs. I have designed my modules to take the tactical learning approach in conveying the concepts behind correlation, linear regression, and vector distance based classification and clustering. On successful completion of these modules, students will learn how to calculate linear regression, Pearson's correlation, and apply classification and clustering techniques to a dataset. Working on these modules will allow the students to take back to the classroom what they've learned and then apply it to the Earth Science curriculum. During my research this summer, we applied these lessons to analyzing river deltas; we looked at trends in the different variables over time, looked for similarities in NDVI, precipitation, inundation, runoff and discharge, and attempted to predict floods based on the precipitation, waves mean, area of discharge, NDVI, and inundation.

Non-continuum, anisotropic nanomechanics of random and aligned electrospun nanofiber matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chery, Daphney; Han, Biao; Mauck, Robert; Shenoy, Vivek; Han, Lin

Polymer nanofiber assemblies are widely used in cell culture and tissue engineering, while their nanomechanical characteristics have received little attention. In this study, to understand their nanoscale structure-mechanics relations, nanofibers of polycaprolactone (PCL) and poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) were fabricated via electrospinning, and tested via AFM-nanoindentation with a microspherical tip (R ~10 μm) in PBS. For the hydrophobic, less-swollen PCL, a novel, non-continuum linear F-D dependence was observed, instead of the typical Hertzian F-D3/2 behavior, which is usually expected for continuum materials. This linear trend is likely resulted from the tensile stretch of a few individual nanofibers as they were indented in the normal plane. In contrast, for the hydrophilic, highly swollen PVA, the observed typical Hertzian response indicates the dominance of localized deformation within each nanofiber, which had swollen to become hydrogels. Furthermore, for both matrices, aligned fibers showed significantly higher stiffness than random fibers. These results provide a fundamental basis on the nanomechanics of biomaterials for specialized applications in cell phenotype and tissue repair.

Visual field progression in glaucoma: total versus pattern deviation analyses.

PubMed

Artes, Paul H; Nicolela, Marcelo T; LeBlanc, Raymond P; Chauhan, Balwantray C

2005-12-01

To compare visual field progression with total and pattern deviation analyses in a prospective longitudinal study of patients with glaucoma and healthy control subjects. A group of 101 patients with glaucoma (168 eyes) with early to moderately advanced visual field loss at baseline (average mean deviation [MD], -3.9 dB) and no clinical evidence of media opacity were selected from a prospective longitudinal study on visual field progression in glaucoma. Patients were examined with static automated perimetry at 6-month intervals for a median follow-up of 9 years. At each test location, change was established with event and trend analyses of total and pattern deviation. The event analyses compared each follow-up test to a baseline obtained from averaging the first two tests, and visual field progression was defined as deterioration beyond the 5th percentile of test-retest variability at three test locations, observed on three consecutive tests. The trend analyses were based on point-wise linear regression, and visual field progression was defined as statistically significant deterioration (P < 5%) worse than -1 dB/year at three locations, confirmed by independently omitting the last and the penultimate observation. The incidence and the time-to-progression were compared between total and pattern deviation analyses. To estimate the specificity of the progression analyses, identical criteria were applied to visual fields obtained in 102 healthy control subjects, and the rate of visual field improvement was established in the patients with glaucoma and the healthy control subjects. With both event and trend methods, pattern deviation analyses classified approximately 15% fewer eyes as having progressed than did the total deviation analyses. In eyes classified as progressing by both the total and pattern deviation methods, total deviation analyses tended to detect progression earlier than the pattern deviation analyses. A comparison of the changes observed in MD and the visual fields' general height (estimated by the 85th percentile of the total deviation values) confirmed that change in the glaucomatous eyes almost always comprised a diffuse component. Pattern deviation analyses of progression may therefore underestimate the true amount of glaucomatous visual field progression. Pattern deviation analyses of visual field progression may underestimate visual field progression in glaucoma, particularly when there is no clinical evidence of increasing media opacity. Clinicians should have access to both total and pattern deviation analyses to make informed decisions on visual field progression in glaucoma.

Planar air-bearing microgravity simulators: Review of applications, existing solutions and design parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybus, Tomasz; Seweryn, Karol

2016-03-01

All devices designed to be used in space must be thoroughly tested in relevant conditions. For several classes of devices the reduced gravity conditions are the key factor. In early stages of development and later due to financial reasons, the tests need to be done on Earth. However, in Earth conditions it is impossible to obtain a different gravity field independent on all linear and rotational spatial coordinates. Therefore, various test-bed systems are used, with their design driven by the device's specific needs. One of such test-beds are planar air-bearing microgravity simulators. In such an approach, the tested objects (e.g., manipulators intended for on-orbit operations or vehicles simulating satellites in a close formation flight) are mounted on planar air-bearings that allow almost frictionless motion on a flat surface, thus simulating microgravity conditions in two dimensions. In this paper we present a comprehensive review of research activities related to planar air-bearing microgravity simulators, demonstrating achievements of the most active research groups and describing newest trends and ideas, such as tests of landing gears for low-g bodies. Major design parameters of air-bearing test-beds are also reviewed and a list of notable existing test-beds is presented.

Meat intake and reproductive parameters among young men

PubMed Central

Afeiche, Myriam C; Williams, Paige L; Gaskins, Audrey J; Mendiola, Jaime; Jørgensen, Niels; Swan, Shanna H

2014-01-01

Background In the United States, anabolic sex steroids are administered to cattle for growth promotion. There is concern regarding the reproductive consequences of this practice for men who eat beef. We investigated whether meat consumption was associated with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormone levels in young men. Methods Semen samples were obtained from 189 men aged 18-22 years. Diet was assessed with a previously validated food frequency questionnaire. We used linear regression to analyze the cross-sectional associations of meat intake with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormones, while adjusting for potential confounders. Results There was an inverse relation between processed red meat intake and total sperm count. The adjusted relative differences in total sperm counts for men in increasing quartiles of processed meat intake were 0 (ref), −3 (95% confidence interval = −67 to 37), −14 (−82 to 28), and −78 (−202 to −5) million (test for trend, P = 0.01). This association was strongest among men with abstinence time less than 2 days and was driven by a strong inverse relation between processed red meat intake and ejaculate volume (test for trend, P =0.003). Conclusions In our population of young men, processed meat intake was associated with lower total sperm count. We cannot distinguish whether this association is due to residual confounding by abstinence time or represents a true biological effect. PMID:24681577

Heart Rate Response to a Timed Walk & Cardiovascular Outcomes in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Girotra, Saket; Kitzman, Dalane W.; Kop, Willem J.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Gottdiener, John S.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES To determine the relationship between heart rate response during low-grade physical exertion (six-minute walk) with mortality and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in the elderly. METHODS Participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, who completed a six-minute walk test, were included. We used delta heart rate (difference between post-walk heart rate and resting heart rate) as a measure of chronotropic response and examined its association with 1) all-cause mortality and 2) incident coronary heart disease (CHD) event, using multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS We included 2224 participants (mean age 77±4 years; 60% women, 85% white). The average delta heart rate was 26 beats/min. Participants in the lowest tertile of delta heart rate (<20 beats/min) had higher risk-adjusted mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI][1.00, 1.40]) and incident CHD (HR 1.37; 95% CI[1.05, 1.78]) compared to subjects in the highest tertile (≥30 beats/min), with a significant linear trend across tertiles (P for trend <0.05 for both outcomes). This relationship was not significant after adjustment for distance walked. CONCLUSION Impaired chronotropic response during six-minute walk test was associated with an increased risk of mortality and incident CHD among the elderly. This association was attenuated after adjusting for distance walked. PMID:22722364

Age and Employee Green Behaviors: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Wiernik, Brenton M.; Dilchert, Stephan; Ones, Deniz S.

2016-01-01

Recent economic and societal developments have led to an increasing emphasis on organizational environmental performance. At the same time, demographic trends are resulting in increasingly aging labor forces in many industrialized nations. Commonly held stereotypes suggest that older workers are less likely to be environmentally responsible than younger workers. To evaluate the degree to which such age differences are present, we meta-analyzed 132 independent correlations and 336 d-values based on 4676 professional workers from 22 samples in 11 countries. Contrary to popular stereotypes, age showed small positive relationships with pro-environmental behaviors, suggesting that older adults engaged in these workplace behaviors slightly more frequently. Relationships with age appeared to be linear for overall, Conserving, Avoiding Harm, and Taking Initiative pro-environmental behaviors, but non-linear trends were observed for Transforming and Influencing Others behaviors. PMID:26973550

Motor vehicle driver injury and socioeconomic status: a cohort study with prospective and retrospective driver injuries.

PubMed

Whitlock, G; Norton, R; Clark, T; Pledger, M; Jackson, R; MacMahon, S

2003-07-01

To investigate the association between motor vehicle driver injury and socioeconomic status. Cohort study with prospective and retrospective outcomes. New Zealand. 10 525 adults (volunteer sample of a multi-industry workforce, n=8008; and a random sample of urban electoral rolls, n=2517). Motor vehicle driver injury resulting in admission of the driver to hospital or the driver's death, or both, during the period 1988-98; hospitalisation and mortality data were obtained by record linkage to national health databases. After adjustment for age and sex, driver injury risk was inversely associated with both occupational status (p for linear trend <0.0001) and educational level (p for linear trend =0.007). Participants in the lowest approximate quartile of occupational status were four times as likely (HR 4.17, 95% CI 2.31 to 7.55) to have experienced a driver injury during follow up as participants in the highest approximate quartile. Participants who had been to secondary school for less than two years were twice as likely (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.34 to 3.81) to have experienced a driver injury as those who had been to university or polytechnic. There was little evidence that driver injury risk was associated with neighbourhood income (p for linear trend =0.12) CONCLUSIONS: Occupational status and educational level seem to be important determinants of driver injury risk. Driver injury countermeasures should be targeted to people in low status occupations, as well as to people with comparatively little formal education.

[ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in the eastern urban China: from 2001 to 2011].

PubMed

Li, J; Li, X; Hu, S; Yu, Y; Yan, X F; Jiang, L X

2016-04-24

To assess trends in clinical characteristics, treatments, and outcomes for hospitalized patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI) in eastern urban China from 2001 to 2011. The data were obtained from the China PEACE-retrospective acute myocardial infarction study. Patients admitted to hospital in the eastern urban China for STEMI were selected via two-stage random sampling. The first phase was to identify participating hospitals via a simple random-sampling procedure. The second stage was to select patients admitted to each participating hospitals for acute myocardial infarction in the year of 2001, 2006 and 2011 with a systematic sampling approach. Then clinical information was obtained via central medical record abstraction for each patient. In all analyses, weight was calculated proportional to the inverse sampling fraction for each period. Multilevel logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations were used for analysis of patient outcomes. This analysis included 5 257 patients with STEMI from 32 hospitals. In 2001, 2006, and 2011, the median age of STEMI patients was 66(57, 72)、67(56, 74)and 63(53, 74)years(trend test P=0.008), the proportion of female was 30.3%, 29.5% and 29.2%(trend test P=0.530), respectively. The proportion of cardiovascular risk factors increased over time(trend test P<0.001); 45.6%, 55.6%, and 56.3% patients had hypertension(trend test P<0.001); 18.8%, 27.7% and 26.2% patients had diabetes(trend test P<0.001); 50.1%, 59.2% and 70.5% patients had dyslipidemia(trend test P<0.001); 30.5%, 35.1% and 44.1% patients are current smokers(trend test P<0.001) in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. Between 2001 and 2011, there were significant increases in aspirin use(80.7% in 2001, 90.4% in 2006, and 91.5% in 2011, trend test P<0.001), clopidogrel use(2.9% in 2001, 64.2% in 2006, and 90.3% in 2011, trend test P<0.001) within 24 hours after admission, statins use rate was 45.8% in 2001, 83.4% in 2006, and 93.8% in 2011(trend test P<0.001), and rate of direct percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI) was 21.0% in 2001, 29.7% in 2006, and 40.3% in 2011(trend test P<0.001) in patients without documented contraindications. However, the rate of reperfusion therapy was non-significantly decreased: 58.5% in 2001, 58.0% in 2006, and 55.5% in 2011 (trend test P=0.230). The use of beta blockers also decreased: 62.4% in 2001, 64.3% in 2006 and 55.2% in 2011(trend test P=0.001). The mortality rate within 7 days following admission was 7.8%, 7.0%, 6.1%, and the proportion of death or treatment withdrawal because of terminal status was 8.3%, 8.6%, 7.4% in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. Both parameters were similar among the 3 time points(trend test P>0.05). During the past decade, there has been a rapid increase in application of new technology and drug for STEMI in the eastern urban China. However, important gaps persist between clinical practice and guideline recommendations, and the outcomes of patients have not been significantly improved. Clinical Trail Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01624883.

Management of environmental health issues for the 2004 Athens Olympic Games: is enhanced integrated environmental health surveillance needed in every day routine operation?

PubMed Central

Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Mouchtouri, Varvara; Vaitsi, Vasiliki; Kapoula, Christina; Vousoureli, Anastasia; Kalivitis, Isidiros; Chervoni, Julia; Papastergiou, Panagiotis; Vasilogiannakopoulos, Antonios; Daniilidis, Vasilis D; Kremastinou, Jenny

2006-01-01

Background Management of environmental health issues is an integral part of public health systems. An active integrated environmental health surveillance and response system was developed for the Athens Olympics to monitor and prevent exposure to environmental hazards. The potential for permanent implementation of the program was examined. Methods The environmental health surveillance and response system included standardization, computerization and electronic transmission of data concerning environmental inspections of 17 site categories (restaurants, swimming pools etc) of public health interest, drinking and recreational water examinations and suggested corrective actions. The Olympic Planning Unit integrated and centrally managed data from 13 public health agencies, recommended, supervised and coordinated prompt corrective actions. Methods used to test the effectiveness of the program were the assessment of water quality test and inspection results trends over time using linear regression and epidemiological surveillance findings. Results Between January 2003 and September the 30th, 2004, 196 inspectors conducted 8562 inspections, collected 5024 water samples and recommended 17 027 corrective actions. In 10 cruise ships used as floating hotels inspectors conducted 10 full inspections, 2 re-inspections, and 27 follow-up inspections. Unsatisfactory inspection results (r = 0.44, p < 0.0001) and positive water quality tests (r = 0.39, p < 0.001) presented an overall decrease trend over time. In August, 2003, an outbreak of salmonellosis was linked to a hotel restaurant which accommodated athletes during a test event. Conclusion Lessons learned for future events include timely implementation and installation of communication processes, and rapid and coordinated response to unsatisfactory inspection results. Routine national programs need to adopt enhanced environmental health surveillance aimed at public health decision-making, but with a different perspective. PMID:17176469

Management of environmental health issues for the 2004 Athens Olympic Games: is enhanced integrated environmental health surveillance needed in every day routine operation?

PubMed

Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Mouchtouri, Varvara; Vaitsi, Vasiliki; Kapoula, Christina; Vousoureli, Anastasia; Kalivitis, Isidiros; Chervoni, Julia; Papastergiou, Panagiotis; Vasilogiannakopoulos, Antonios; Daniilidis, Vasilis D; Kremastinou, Jenny

2006-12-18

Management of environmental health issues is an integral part of public health systems. An active integrated environmental health surveillance and response system was developed for the Athens Olympics to monitor and prevent exposure to environmental hazards. The potential for permanent implementation of the program was examined. The environmental health surveillance and response system included standardization, computerization and electronic transmission of data concerning environmental inspections of 17 site categories (restaurants, swimming pools etc) of public health interest, drinking and recreational water examinations and suggested corrective actions. The Olympic Planning Unit integrated and centrally managed data from 13 public health agencies, recommended, supervised and coordinated prompt corrective actions. Methods used to test the effectiveness of the program were the assessment of water quality test and inspection results trends over time using linear regression and epidemiological surveillance findings. Between January 2003 and September the 30th, 2004, 196 inspectors conducted 8562 inspections, collected 5024 water samples and recommended 17 027 corrective actions. In 10 cruise ships used as floating hotels inspectors conducted 10 full inspections, 2 re-inspections, and 27 follow-up inspections. Unsatisfactory inspection results (r = 0.44, p < 0.0001) and positive water quality tests (r = 0.39, p < 0.001) presented an overall decrease trend over time. In August, 2003, an outbreak of salmonellosis was linked to a hotel restaurant which accommodated athletes during a test event. Lessons learned for future events include timely implementation and installation of communication processes, and rapid and coordinated response to unsatisfactory inspection results. Routine national programs need to adopt enhanced environmental health surveillance aimed at public health decision-making, but with a different perspective.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers' Adaptations.

PubMed

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008-2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4-66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers' practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers’ Adaptations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008–2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4–66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers’ practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations. PMID:28900435

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2015-04-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS (LOng Term Ozone Simulation - EURopean Operational Smog) to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by RACMO2 (Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel). Observations at European rural background sites have been used as a reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data, stringent selection criteria were applied, including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulfur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990s, while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000 and 2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulfate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured well these non-linear responses to the emission changes. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module, trends in the formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulfate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses in the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990s used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. H. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2014-07-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by the regional climate model RACMO2. Observations at European rural background sites have been used as reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data stringent selection criteria were applied including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the day-to-day, seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulphur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both, the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990's while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000-2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulphate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are significantly lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured these non-linear responses to the emission changes well. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module trends in formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulphate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses to the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990's used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Anaemia, prenatal iron use, and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Haider, Batool A; Olofin, Ibironke; Wang, Molin; Spiegelman, Donna; Ezzati, Majid; Fawzi, Wafaie W

2013-06-21

To summarise evidence on the associations of maternal anaemia and prenatal iron use with maternal haematological and adverse pregnancy outcomes; and to evaluate potential exposure-response relations of dose of iron, duration of use, and haemoglobin concentration in prenatal period with pregnancy outcomes. Systematic review and meta-analysis Searches of PubMed and Embase for studies published up to May 2012 and references of review articles. Randomised trials of prenatal iron use and prospective cohort studies of prenatal anaemia; cross sectional and case-control studies were excluded. 48 randomised trials (17 793 women) and 44 cohort studies (1 851 682 women) were included. Iron use increased maternal mean haemoglobin concentration by 4.59 (95% confidence interval 3.72 to 5.46) g/L compared with controls and significantly reduced the risk of anaemia (relative risk 0.50, 0.42 to 0.59), iron deficiency (0.59, 0.46 to 0.79), iron deficiency anaemia (0.40, 0.26 to 0.60), and low birth weight (0.81, 0.71 to 0.93). The effect of iron on preterm birth was not significant (relative risk 0.84, 0.68 to 1.03). Analysis of cohort studies showed a significantly higher risk of low birth weight (adjusted odds ratio 1.29, 1.09 to 1.53) and preterm birth (1.21, 1.13 to 1.30) with anaemia in the first or second trimester. Exposure-response analysis indicated that for every 10 mg increase in iron dose/day, up to 66 mg/day, the relative risk of maternal anaemia was 0.88 (0.84 to 0.92) (P for linear trend<0.001). Birth weight increased by 15.1 (6.0 to 24.2) g (P for linear trend=0.005) and risk of low birth weight decreased by 3% (relative risk 0.97, 0.95 to 0.98) for every 10 mg increase in dose/day (P for linear trend<0.001). Duration of use was not significantly associated with the outcomes after adjustment for dose. Furthermore, for each 1 g/L increase in mean haemoglobin, birth weight increased by 14.0 (6.8 to 21.8) g (P for linear trend=0.002); however, mean haemoglobin was not associated with the risk of low birth weight and preterm birth. No evidence of a significant effect on duration of gestation, small for gestational age births, and birth length was noted. Daily prenatal use of iron substantially improved birth weight in a linear dose-response fashion, probably leading to a reduction in risk of low birth weight. An improvement in prenatal mean haemoglobin concentration linearly increased birth weight.

Version 8 SBUV Ozone Profile Trends Compared with Trends from a Zonally Averaged Chemical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, Joan E.; Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2004-01-01

Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Shyla A.

2003-01-01

Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

PubMed Central

Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of sampling.   PMID:9764107