Landscape Pattern Determines Neighborhood Size and Structure within a Lizard Population

PubMed Central

Ryberg, Wade A.; Hill, Michael T.; Painter, Charles W.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2013-01-01

Although defining population structure according to discrete habitat patches is convenient for metapopulation theories, taking this approach may overlook structure within populations continuously distributed across landscapes. For example, landscape features within habitat patches direct the movement of organisms and define the density distribution of individuals, which can generate spatial structure and localized dynamics within populations as well as among them. Here, we use the neighborhood concept, which describes population structure relative to the scale of individual movements, to illustrate how localized dynamics within a population of lizards (Sceloporus arenicolus) arise in response to variation in landscape pattern within a continuous habitat patch. Our results emphasize links between individual movements at small scales and the emergence of spatial structure within populations which resembles metapopulation dynamics at larger scales. We conclude that population dynamics viewed in a landscape context must consider the explicit distribution and movement of individuals within continuous habitat as well as among habitat patches. PMID:23441217

Allee effects and the spatial dynamics of a locally endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary (Argynnis adippe).

PubMed

Bonsall, Michael B; Dooley, Claire A; Kasparson, Anna; Brereton, Tom; Roy, David B; Thomas, Jeremy A

2014-01-01

Conservation of endangered species necessitates a full appreciation of the ecological processes affecting the regulation, limitation, and persistence of populations. These processes are influenced by birth, death, and dispersal events, and characterizing them requires careful accounting of both the deterministic and stochastic processes operating at both local and regional population levels. We combined ecological theory and observations on Allee effects by linking mathematical analysis and the spatial and temporal population dynamics patterns of a highly endangered butterfly, the high brown fritillary, Argynnis adippe. Our theoretical analysis showed that the role of density-dependent feedbacks in the presence of local immigration can influence the strength of Allee effects. Linking this theory to the analysis of the population data revealed strong evidence for both negative density dependence and Allee effects at the landscape or regional scale. These regional dynamics are predicted to be highly influenced by immigration. Using a Bayesian state-space approach, we characterized the local-scale births, deaths, and dispersal effects together with measurement and process uncertainty in the metapopulation. Some form of an Allee effect influenced almost three-quarters of these local populations. Our joint analysis of the deterministic and stochastic dynamics suggests that a conservation priority for this species would be to increase resource availability in currently occupied and, more importantly, in unoccupied sites.

How Does a Divided Population Respond to Change?

PubMed Central

Qubbaj, Murad R.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Aggarwal, Rimjhim M.; Anderies, John M.

2015-01-01

Most studies on the response of socioeconomic systems to a sudden shift focus on long-term equilibria or end points. Such narrow focus forgoes many valuable insights. Here we examine the transient dynamics of regime shift on a divided population, exemplified by societies divided ideologically, politically, economically, or technologically. Replicator dynamics is used to investigate the complex transient dynamics of the population response. Though simple, our modeling approach exhibits a surprisingly rich and diverse array of dynamics. Our results highlight the critical roles played by diversity in strategies and the magnitude of the shift. Importantly, it allows for a variety of strategies to arise organically as an integral part of the transient dynamics—as opposed to an independent process—of population response to a regime shift, providing a link between the population's past and future diversity patterns. Several combinations of different populations' strategy distributions and shifts were systematically investigated. Such rich dynamics highlight the challenges of anticipating the response of a divided population to a change. The findings in this paper can potentially improve our understanding of a wide range of socio-ecological and technological transitions. PMID:26161859

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

PubMed

Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

2018-05-07

When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linkages between large-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Alaskan caribou populations

Treesearch

Kyle Joly; David R. Klein; David L. Verbyla; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin

2011-01-01

Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large-scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth...

Variation in predator foraging behavior changes predator-prey spatio-temporal dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

1. Foraging underlies the ability of all animals to acquire essential resources and, thus, provides a critical link to understanding population dynamics. A key issue is how variation in foraging behavior affects foraging efficiency and predator-prey interactions in spatially-heterogeneous environmen...

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Transition from amplitude to oscillation death in a network of oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandan, Mauparna; Hens, C. R.; Pal, Pinaki; Dana, Syamal K.

2014-12-01

We report a transition from a homogeneous steady state (HSS) to inhomogeneous steady states (IHSSs) in a network of globally coupled identical oscillators. We perturb a synchronized population of oscillators in the network with a few local negative or repulsive mean field links. The whole population splits into two clusters for a certain number of repulsive mean field links and a range of coupling strength. For further increase of the strength of interaction, these clusters collapse into a HSS followed by a transition to IHSSs where all the oscillators populate either of the two stable steady states. We analytically determine the origin of HSS and its transition to IHSS in relation to the number of repulsive mean-field links and the strength of interaction using a reductionism approach to the model network. We verify the results with numerical examples of the paradigmatic Landau-Stuart limit cycle system and the chaotic Rössler oscillator as dynamical nodes. During the transition from HSS to IHSSs, the network follows the Turing type symmetry breaking pitchfork or transcritical bifurcation depending upon the system dynamics.

Transition from amplitude to oscillation death in a network of oscillators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nandan, Mauparna; Department of Mathematics, National Institute of Technology, Durgapur 713209; Hens, C. R.

2014-12-01

We report a transition from a homogeneous steady state (HSS) to inhomogeneous steady states (IHSSs) in a network of globally coupled identical oscillators. We perturb a synchronized population of oscillators in the network with a few local negative or repulsive mean field links. The whole population splits into two clusters for a certain number of repulsive mean field links and a range of coupling strength. For further increase of the strength of interaction, these clusters collapse into a HSS followed by a transition to IHSSs where all the oscillators populate either of the two stable steady states. We analytically determinemore » the origin of HSS and its transition to IHSS in relation to the number of repulsive mean-field links and the strength of interaction using a reductionism approach to the model network. We verify the results with numerical examples of the paradigmatic Landau-Stuart limit cycle system and the chaotic Rössler oscillator as dynamical nodes. During the transition from HSS to IHSSs, the network follows the Turing type symmetry breaking pitchfork or transcritical bifurcation depending upon the system dynamics.« less

Linking Adverse Outcome Pathways to Dynamic Energy Budgets: A Conceptual Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, Cheryl; Nisbet, Roger; Antczak, Philipp

Ecological risk assessment quantifies the likelihood of undesirable impacts of stressors, primarily at high levels of biological organization. Data used to inform ecological risk assessments come primarily from tests on individual organisms or from suborganismal studies, indicating a disconnect between primary data and protection goals. We know how to relate individual responses to population dynamics using individual-based models, and there are emerging ideas on how to make connections to ecosystem services. However, there is no established methodology to connect effects seen at higher levels of biological organization with suborganismal dynamics, despite progress made in identifying Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) thatmore » link molecular initiating events to ecologically relevant key events. This chapter is a product of a working group at the National Center for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) that assessed the feasibility of using dynamic energy budget (DEB) models of individual organisms as a “pivot” connecting suborganismal processes to higher level ecological processes. AOP models quantify explicit molecular, cellular or organ-level processes, but do not offer a route to linking sub-organismal damage to adverse effects on individual growth, reproduction, and survival, which can be propagated to the population level through individual-based models. DEB models describe these processes, but use abstract variables with undetermined connections to suborganismal biology. We propose linking DEB and quantitative AOP models by interpreting AOP key events as measures of damage-inducing processes in a DEB model. Here, we present a conceptual model for linking AOPs to DEB models and review existing modeling tools available for both AOP and DEB.« less

Linking in situ bioassays and population dynamics of macroinvertebrates to assess agricultural contamination in streams of the Argentine pampa.

PubMed

Jergentz, S; Pessacq, P; Mugni, H; Bonetto, C; Schulz, R

2004-10-01

The two local crustacean species Hyalella curvispina and Macrobrachium borelli were chosen for assessment of agricultural contamination in two streams (Horqueta and Maguire) in the Argentine pampa. In parallel with in situ bioassays of both species, the population dynamics and the organismic drift of H. curvispina were investigated throughout the main period of insecticide application, from December 2001 to March 2002. In Maguire none of the current-use insecticides (chlorpyrifos, alpha-cypermethrin, and endosulfan) in question were detected throughout the sampling period. During 1-week intervals with no contamination by insecticides the survival rate of H. curvispina varied between 77 +/- 6% (+/- SE, n = 4) and 85 +/- 3%. In Horqueta during a week with a peak insecticide contamination of 64 microg/kg chlorpyrifos in the suspended particles, a mortality of 100% was observed in the in situ bioassays for both species, H. curvispina and M. borelli. At the same time, in Maguire H. curvispina showed reduced survival rates of 23 +/- 5% and 25 +/- 18% at the two sites, while the survival rate of M. borelli was 60 +/- 11% upstream and 93 +/- 5% downstream, below a wetland. During the period with 100% mortality of H. curvispina in Horqueta, the population density of this species decreased correspondingly, from 106 +/- 26 to 0 individuals/m(2). We conclude that in situ bioassays can be successfully linked to in-stream population dynamics for the same species and that this link is very useful for interpreting causal exposure-effect relationships.

Linking environmental variability to population and community dynamics: Chapter 7

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pantel, Jelena H.; Pendleton, Daniel E.; Walters, Annika W.; Rogers, Lauren A.

2014-01-01

Linking population and community responses to environmental variability lies at the heart of ecology, yet methodological approaches vary and existence of broad patterns spanning taxonomic groups remains unclear. We review the characteristics of environmental and biological variability. Classic approaches to link environmental variability to population and community variability are discussed as are the importance of biotic factors such as life history and community interactions. In addition to classic approaches, newer techniques such as information theory and artificial neural networks are reviewed. The establishment and expansion of observing networks will provide new long-term ecological time-series data, and with it, opportunities to incorporate environmental variability into research. This review can help guide future research in the field of ecological and environmental variability.

INDIVIDUAL EFFECTS OF ESTROGENS ON A MARINE FISH, CUNNER (TAUTOGOLABRUS ADSPERSUS), EXTRAPOLATED TO POPULATION LEVEL

EPA Science Inventory

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the environment may alter the population dynamics of wildlife by affecting reproductive output. This study describes a matrix modeling approach to link laboratory studies on endocrine disruption with potential ecological effects. The exper...

Feeding modes in stream salmonid population models: Is drift feeding the whole story?

Treesearch

Bret Harvey; Steve Railsback

2014-01-01

Drift-feeding models are essential components of broader models that link stream habitat to salmonid populations and community dynamics. But is an additional feeding mode needed for understanding and predicting salmonid population responses to streamflow and other environmental factors? We addressed this question by applying two versions of the individual-based model...

Age structure and cooperation in coevolutionary games on dynamic network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zilong; Hu, Zhenhua; Zhou, Xiaoping; Yi, Jingzhang

2015-04-01

Our proposed model imitates the growth of a population and describes the age structure and the level of cooperation in games on dynamic network with continuous changes of structure and topology. The removal of nodes and links caused by age-dependent attack, together with the nodes addition standing for the newborns of population, badly ruins Matthew effect in this coevolutionary process. Though the network is generated by growth and preferential attachment, it degenerates into random network and it is no longer heterogeneous. When the removal of nodes and links is equal to the addition of nodes and links, the size of dynamic network is maintained in steady-state, so is the low level of cooperation. Severe structure variation, homogeneous topology and continuous invasion of new defection jointly make dynamic network unsuitable for the survival of cooperator even when the probability with which the newborn players initially adopt the strategy cooperation is high, while things change slightly when the connections of newborn players are restricted. Fortunately, moderate interactions in a generation trigger an optimal recovering process to encourage cooperation. The model developed in this paper outlines an explanation of the cohesion changes in the development process of an organization. Some suggestions for cooperative behavior improvement are given in the end.

A new tool that links landscale connectivity and source-sink dynamics to population viability

EPA Science Inventory

The importance of connectivity and source-sink dynamics to conservation planning is widely appreciated. But the use of these concepts in practical applications such as the identification of critical habitat has been slowed because few models are designed to identify demographic s...

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

Metamodels for Transdisciplinary Analysis of Wildlife Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Lacy, Robert C.; Miller, Philip S.; Nyhus, Philip J.; Pollak, J. P.; Raboy, Becky E.; Zeigler, Sara L.

2013-01-01

Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological – physical – human systems. We describe a “metamodel” approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples – one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics – to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation. PMID:24349567

Population Dynamics of Genetic Regulatory Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Erez

2005-03-01

Unlike common objects in physics, a biological cell processes information. The cell interprets its genome and transforms the genomic information content, through the action of genetic regulatory networks, into proteins which in turn dictate its metabolism, functionality and morphology. Understanding the dynamics of a population of biological cells presents a unique challenge. It requires to link the intracellular dynamics of gene regulation, through the mechanism of cell division, to the level of the population. We present experiments studying adaptive dynamics of populations of genetically homogeneous microorganisms (yeast), grown for long durations under steady conditions. We focus on population dynamics that do not involve random genetic mutations. Our experiments follow the long-term dynamics of the population distributions and allow to quantify the correlations among generations. We focus on three interconnected issues: adaptation of genetically homogeneous populations following environmental changes, selection processes on the population and population variability and expression distributions. We show that while the population exhibits specific short-term responses to environmental inputs, it eventually adapts to a robust steady-state, largely independent of external conditions. Cycles of medium-switch show that the adapted state is imprinted in the population and that this memory is maintained for many generations. To further study population adaptation, we utilize the process of gene recruitment whereby a gene naturally regulated by a specific promoter is placed under a different regulatory system. This naturally occurring process has been recognized as a major driving force in evolution. We have recruited an essential gene to a foreign regulatory network and followed the population long-term dynamics. Rewiring of the regulatory network allows us to expose their complex dynamics and phase space structure.

Multiple dynamics in a single predator-prey system: experimental effects of food quality.

PubMed Central

Nelson, W A; McCauley, E; Wrona, F J

2001-01-01

Recent work with the freshwater zooplankton Daphnia has suggested that the quality of its algal prey can have a significant effect on its demographic rates and life-history patterns. Predator-prey theory linking food quantity and food quality predicts that a single system should be able to display two distinct patterns of population dynamics. One pattern is predicted to have high herbivore and low algal biomass dynamics (high HBD), whereas the other is predicted to have low herbivore and high algal biomass dynamics (low HBD). Despite these predictions and the stoichiometric evidence that many phytoplankton communities may have poor access to food of quality, there have been few tests of whether a dynamic predator-prey system can display both of these distinct patterns. Here we report, to the authors' knowledge, the first evidence for two dynamical patterns, as predicted by theory, in a single predator-prey system. We show that the high HBD is a result of food quantity effects and that the low HBD is a result of food quality effects, which are maintained by phosphorus limitation in the predator. These results provide an important link between the known effects of nutrient limitation in herbivores and the significance of prey quality in predator-prey population dynamics in natural zooplankton communities. PMID:11410147

Interacting particle systems on graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sood, Vishal

In this dissertation, the dynamics of socially or biologically interacting populations are investigated. The individual members of the population are treated as particles that interact via links on a social or biological network represented as a graph. The effect of the structure of the graph on the properties of the interacting particle system is studied using statistical physics techniques. In the first chapter, the central concepts of graph theory and social and biological networks are presented. Next, interacting particle systems that are drawn from physics, mathematics and biology are discussed in the second chapter. In the third chapter, the random walk on a graph is studied. The mean time for a random walk to traverse between two arbitrary sites of a random graph is evaluated. Using an effective medium approximation it is found that the mean first-passage time between pairs of sites, as well as all moments of this first-passage time, are insensitive to the density of links in the graph. The inverse of the mean-first passage time varies non-monotonically with the density of links near the percolation transition of the random graph. Much of the behavior can be understood by simple heuristic arguments. Evolutionary dynamics, by which mutants overspread an otherwise uniform population on heterogeneous graphs, are studied in the fourth chapter. Such a process underlies' epidemic propagation, emergence of fads, social cooperation or invasion of an ecological niche by a new species. The first part of this chapter is devoted to neutral dynamics, in which the mutant genotype does not have a selective advantage over the resident genotype. The time to extinction of one of the two genotypes is derived. In the second part of this chapter, selective advantage or fitness is introduced such that the mutant genotype has a higher birth rate or a lower death rate. This selective advantage leads to a dynamical competition in which selection dominates for large populations, while for small populations the dynamics are similar to the neutral case. The likelihood for the fitter mutants to drive the resident genotype to extinction is calculated.

The western spruce budworm model: structure and content.

Treesearch

K.A. Sheehan; W.P. Kemp; J.J. Colbert; N.L. Crookston

1989-01-01

The Budworm Model predicts the amounts of foliage destroyed annually by the western spruce budworm, Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, in a forest stand. The model may be used independently, or it may be linked to the Stand Prognosis Model to simulate the dynamics of forest stands. Many processes that affect budworm population dynamics are...

Effects of adaptive dynamical linking in networked games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhihu; Li, Zhi; Wu, Te; Wang, Long

2013-10-01

The role of dynamical topologies in the evolution of cooperation has received considerable attention, as some studies have demonstrated that dynamical networks are much better than static networks in terms of boosting cooperation. Here we study a dynamical model of evolution of cooperation on stochastic dynamical networks in which there are no permanent partners to each agent. Whenever a new link is created, its duration is randomly assigned without any bias or preference. We allow the agent to adaptively adjust the duration of each link during the evolution in accordance with the feedback from game interactions. By Monte Carlo simulations, we find that cooperation can be remarkably promoted by this adaptive dynamical linking mechanism both for the game of pairwise interactions, such as the Prisoner's Dilemma game (PDG), and for the game of group interactions, illustrated by the public goods game (PGG). And the faster the adjusting rate, the more successful the evolution of cooperation. We also show that in this context weak selection favors cooperation much more than strong selection does. What is particularly meaningful is that the prosperity of cooperation in this study indicates that the rationality and selfishness of a single agent in adjusting social ties can lead to the progress of altruism of the whole population.

Density dependence in group dynamics of a highly social mongoose, Suricata suricatta.

PubMed

Bateman, Andrew W; Ozgul, Arpat; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2012-05-01

1. For social species, the link between individual behaviour and population dynamics is mediated by group-level demography. 2. Populations of obligate cooperative breeders are structured into social groups, which may be subject to inverse density dependence (Allee effects) that result from a dependence on conspecific helpers, but evidence for population-wide Allee effects is rare. 3. We use field data from a long-term study of cooperative meerkats (Suricata suricatta; Schreber, 1776) - a species for which local Allee effects are not reflected in population-level dynamics - to empirically model interannual group dynamics. 4. Using phenomenological population models, modified to incorporate environmental conditions and potential Allee effects, we first investigate overall patterns of group dynamics and find support only for conventional density dependence that increases after years of low rainfall. 5. To explain the observed patterns, we examine specific demographic rates and assess their contributions to overall group dynamics. Although per-capita meerkat mortality is subject to a component Allee effect, it contributes relatively little to observed variation in group dynamics, and other (conventionally density dependent) demographic rates - especially emigration - govern group dynamics. 6. Our findings highlight the need to consider demographic processes and density dependence in subpopulations before drawing conclusions about how behaviour affects population processes in socially complex systems. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Mass and energy budgets of animals: Behavioral and ecological implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, W.P.

1991-11-01

The two major aims of our lab are as follows: First, to develop and field-test general mechanistic models that predict animal life history characteristics as influenced by climate and the physical, physiological behavioral characteristics of species. This involves: understanding how animal time and energy budgets are affected by climate and animal properties; predicting growth and reproductive potential from time and energy budgets; predicting mortality based on climate and time and energy budgets; and linking these individual based models to population dynamics. Second to conduct empirical studies of animal physiological ecology, particularly the effects of temperature on time and energy budgets.more » The physiological ecology of individual animals is the key link between the physical environment and population-level phenomena. We address the macroclimate to microclimate linkage on a broad spatial scale; address the links between individuals and population dynamics for lizard species; test the endotherm energetics and behavior model using beaver; address the spatial variation in climate and its effects on individual energetics, growth and reproduction; and address patchiness in the environment and constraints they may impose on individual energetics, growth and reproduction. These projects are described individually in the following section. 24 refs., 9 figs.« less

Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

PubMed

Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

2013-05-01

The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

Living in a network of scaling cities and finite resources.

PubMed

Qubbaj, Murad R; Shutters, Shade T; Muneepeerakul, Rachata

2015-02-01

Many urban phenomena exhibit remarkable regularity in the form of nonlinear scaling behaviors, but their implications on a system of networked cities has never been investigated. Such knowledge is crucial for our ability to harness the complexity of urban processes to further sustainability science. In this paper, we develop a dynamical modeling framework that embeds population-resource dynamics-a generalized Lotka-Volterra system with modifications to incorporate the urban scaling behaviors-in complex networks in which cities may be linked to the resources of other cities and people may migrate in pursuit of higher welfare. We find that isolated cities (i.e., no migration) are susceptible to collapse if they do not have access to adequate resources. Links to other cities may help cities that would otherwise collapse due to insufficient resources. The effects of inter-city links, however, can vary due to the interplay between the nonlinear scaling behaviors and network structure. The long-term population level of a city is, in many settings, largely a function of the city's access to resources over which the city has little or no competition. Nonetheless, careful investigation of dynamics is required to gain mechanistic understanding of a particular city-resource network because cities and resources may collapse and the scaling behaviors may influence the effects of inter-city links, thereby distorting what topological metrics really measure.

The ecogenetic link between demography and evolution: can we bridge the gap between theory and data?

PubMed

Kokko, Hanna; López-Sepulcre, Andrés

2007-09-01

Calls to understand the links between ecology and evolution have been common for decades. Population dynamics, i.e. the demographic changes in populations, arise from life history decisions of individuals and thus are a product of selection, and selection, on the contrary, can be modified by such dynamical properties of the population as density and stability. It follows that generating predictions and testing them correctly requires considering this ecogenetic feedback loop whenever traits have demographic consequences, mediated via density dependence (or frequency dependence). This is not an easy challenge, and arguably theory has advanced at a greater pace than empirical research. However, theory would benefit from more interaction between related fields, as is evident in the many near-synonymous names that the ecogenetic loop has attracted. We also list encouraging examples where empiricists have shown feasible ways of addressing the question, ranging from advanced data analysis to experiments and comparative analyses of phylogenetic data.

Distribution of correlated spiking events in a population-based approach for Integrate-and-Fire networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiwei; Newhall, Katherine; Zhou, Douglas; Rangan, Aaditya

2014-04-01

Randomly connected populations of spiking neurons display a rich variety of dynamics. However, much of the current modeling and theoretical work has focused on two dynamical extremes: on one hand homogeneous dynamics characterized by weak correlations between neurons, and on the other hand total synchrony characterized by large populations firing in unison. In this paper we address the conceptual issue of how to mathematically characterize the partially synchronous "multiple firing events" (MFEs) which manifest in between these two dynamical extremes. We further develop a geometric method for obtaining the distribution of magnitudes of these MFEs by recasting the cascading firing event process as a first-passage time problem, and deriving an analytical approximation of the first passage time density valid for large neuron populations. Thus, we establish a direct link between the voltage distributions of excitatory and inhibitory neurons and the number of neurons firing in an MFE that can be easily integrated into population-based computational methods, thereby bridging the gap between homogeneous firing regimes and total synchrony.

Mitochondrial dynamics in Parkinson's disease

PubMed Central

Van Laar, Victor S.; Berman, Sarah B.

2009-01-01

The unique energy demands of neurons require well-orchestrated distribution and maintenance of mitochondria. Thus, dynamic properties of mitochondria, including fission, fusion, trafficking, biogenesis, and degradation, are critical to all cells, but may be particularly important in neurons. Dysfunction in mitochondrial dynamics has been linked to neuropathies and is increasingly being linked to several neurodegenerative diseases, but the evidence is particularly strong, and continuously accumulating, in Parkinson's disease (PD). The unique characteristics of neurons that degenerate in PD may predispose those neuronal populations to susceptibility to alterations in mitochondrial dynamics. In addition, evidence from PD-related toxins supports that mitochondrial fission, fusion, and transport may be involved in pathogenesis. Furthermore, rapidly increasing evidence suggests that two proteins linked to familial forms of the disease, parkin and PINK1, interact in a common pathway to regulate mitochondrial fission/fusion. Parkin may also play a role in maintaining mitochondrial homeostasis through targeting damaged mitochondria for mitophagy. Taken together, the current data suggests that mitochondrial dynamics may play a role in PD pathogenesis, and a better understanding of mitochondrial dynamics within the neuron may lead to future therapeutic treatments for PD, potentially aimed at some of the earliest pathogenic events. PMID:19332061

Linking Crystal Populations to Dynamic States: Crystal Dissolution and Growth During an Open-System Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergantz, G. W.; Schleicher, J.; Burgisser, A.

2016-12-01

The identification of shared characteristics in zoned crystals has motivated the definition of crystal populations. These populations reflect the simultaneous transport of crystals, heat and composition during open-system events. An obstacle to interpreting the emergence of a population is the absence of a way to correlate specific dynamic conditions with the characteristic attributes of a population. By combining a boundary-layer diffusion controlled model for crystal growth/dissolution with discrete-element magma dynamics simulations of crystal-bearing magmas, the creation of populations can be simulated. We have implemented a method that decomposes the chemical potential into the thermal and compositional contributions to crystal dissolution/growth. This allows for the explicit treatment of thermal inertia and thermal-compositional decoupling as fluid circulation stirs the system during an open-system event. We have identified three distinct dynamic states producing crystal populations. They are based on the volume fraction of crystals. In a mushy system, thermal and compositional states are tightly linked as the volume involved in the mixing is constrained by the so-called mixing bowl (Bergantz et al., 2015). The mixing bowl volume is a function of the visco-plastic response of the mush and the intrusion width, not by the progressive entrainment of the new intrusion as commonly assumed. Crystal dissolution is the dominate response to input of more primitive magma. At the other endmember, under very dilute conditions, thermal and compositional conditions can become decoupled, and the in-coming magma forms a double-diffusive low-Re jet. This can allow for both dissolution and growth as crystals circulate widely into an increasingly stratified system. A middle range of crystal concentration produces a very complex feedback, as sedimenting crystals form fingers and chains that interact with the incoming magma, break-up the entrainment with chaotic stirring and add a second length scale to the mixing. It simultaneously forms a small mixing bowl in the pile of crystals sedimenting at the base. This can produce very complex populations even in a simple open-system event. Bergantz et al., 2015, Open-system dynamics and mixing in magma mushes, Nature Geosci., DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2534

Development of working hypotheses linking management of the Missouri River to population dynamics of Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

2016-01-20

The initial set of candidate hypotheses provides a useful starting point for quantitative modeling and adaptive management of the river and species. We anticipate that hypotheses will change from the set of working management hypotheses as adaptive management progresses. More importantly, hypotheses that have been filtered out of our multistep process are still being considered. These filtered hypotheses are archived and if existing hypotheses are determined to be inadequate to explain observed population dynamics, new hypotheses can be created or filtered hypotheses can be reinstated.

Social and spatial effects on genetic variation between foraging flocks in a wild bird population.

PubMed

Radersma, Reinder; Garroway, Colin J; Santure, Anna W; de Cauwer, Isabelle; Farine, Damien R; Slate, Jon; Sheldon, Ben C

2017-10-01

Social interactions are rarely random. In some instances, animals exhibit homophily or heterophily, the tendency to interact with similar or dissimilar conspecifics, respectively. Genetic homophily and heterophily influence the evolutionary dynamics of populations, because they potentially affect sexual and social selection. Here, we investigate the link between social interactions and allele frequencies in foraging flocks of great tits (Parus major) over three consecutive years. We constructed co-occurrence networks which explicitly described the splitting and merging of 85,602 flocks through time (fission-fusion dynamics), at 60 feeding sites. Of the 1,711 birds in those flocks, we genotyped 962 individuals at 4,701 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). By combining genomewide genotyping with repeated field observations of the same individuals, we were able to investigate links between social structure and allele frequencies at a much finer scale than was previously possible. We explicitly accounted for potential spatial effects underlying genetic structure at the population level. We modelled social structure and spatial configuration of great tit fission-fusion dynamics with eigenvector maps. Variance partitioning revealed that allele frequencies were strongly affected by group fidelity (explaining 27%-45% of variance) as individuals tended to maintain associations with the same conspecifics. These conspecifics were genetically more dissimilar than expected, shown by genomewide heterophily for pure social (i.e., space-independent) grouping preferences. Genomewide homophily was linked to spatial configuration, indicating spatial segregation of genotypes. We did not find evidence for homophily or heterophily for putative socially relevant candidate genes or any other SNP markers. Together, these results demonstrate the importance of distinguishing social and spatial processes in determining population structure. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

PubMed Central

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Indigenous migration dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon: a longitudinal and hierarchical analysis.

PubMed

Davis, Jason; Sellers, Samuel; Gray, Clark; Bilsborrow, Richard

2017-01-01

Amazonian indigenous populations are approaching a critical stage in their history in which increasing education and market integration, rapid population growth and degradation of natural resources threaten the survival of their traditions and livelihoods. A topic that has hardly been touched upon in this context is migration and population mobility. We address this by analysing a unique longitudinal dataset from the Ecuadorian Amazon on the spatial mobility of five indigenous groups and mestizo co-residents. Analyses reveal traditional and new forms of population mobility and migrant selectivity, including gendered forms of marriage migration and rural-urban moves driven by education. These results illustrate a dynamic present and an uncertain future for indigenous populations in which rural, natural-resource-based lifeways may well be sustained but with increasing links to urban areas.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Transoceanic migration, spatial dynamics, and population linkages of white sharks.

PubMed

Bonfil, Ramón; Meÿer, Michael; Scholl, Michael C; Johnson, Ryan; O'Brien, Shannon; Oosthuizen, Herman; Swanson, Stephan; Kotze, Deon; Paterson, Michael

2005-10-07

The large-scale spatial dynamics and population structure of marine top predators are poorly known. We present electronic tag and photographic identification data showing a complex suite of behavioral patterns in white sharks. These include coastal return migrations and the fastest known transoceanic return migration among swimming fauna, which provide direct evidence of a link between widely separated populations in South Africa and Australia. Transoceanic return migration involved a return to the original capture location, dives to depths of 980 meters, and the tolerance of water temperatures as low as 3.4 degrees C. These findings contradict previous ideas that female white sharks do not make transoceanic migrations, and they suggest natal homing behavior.

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator

Treesearch

Michael C. Chitwood; Marcus A. Lashley; John C. Kilgo; Christopher E. Moorman; Christopher S. Deperno

2015-01-01

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes (Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for...

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

PubMed Central

Savage, Anna E; Becker, Carlos G; Zamudio, Kelly R

2015-01-01

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L. yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source–sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines. PMID:26136822

Indigenous migration dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon: a longitudinal and hierarchical analysis

PubMed Central

Davis, Jason; Sellers, Samuel; Gray, Clark; Bilsborrow, Richard

2017-01-01

Amazonian indigenous populations are approaching a critical stage in their history in which increasing education and market integration, rapid population growth and degradation of natural resources threaten the survival of their traditions and livelihoods. A topic that has hardly been touched upon in this context is migration and population mobility. We address this by analysing a unique longitudinal dataset from the Ecuadorian Amazon on the spatial mobility of five indigenous groups and mestizo co-residents. Analyses reveal traditional and new forms of population mobility and migrant selectivity, including gendered forms of marriage migration and rural-urban moves driven by education. These results illustrate a dynamic present and an uncertain future for indigenous populations in which rural, natural-resource-based lifeways may well be sustained but with increasing links to urban areas. PMID:29129939

Linking demographic processes and foraging ecology in wandering albatross-Conservation implications.

PubMed

Weimerskirch, Henri

2018-07-01

Population dynamics and foraging ecology are two fields of the population ecology that are generally studied separately. Yet, foraging determines allocation processes and therefore demography. Studies on wandering albatrosses Diomedea exulans over the past 50 years have contributed to better understand the links between population dynamics and foraging ecology. This article reviews how these two facets of population ecology have been combined to better understand ecological processes, but also have contributed fundamentally for the conservation of this long-lived threatened species. Wandering albatross research has combined a 50-year long-term study of marked individuals with two decades of tracking studies that have been initiated on this species, favoured by its large size and tameness. At all stages of their life history, the body mass of individuals plays a central role in allocation processes, in particular in influencing adult and juvenile survival, decisions to recruit into the population or to invest into provisioning the offspring or into maintenance. Strong age-related variations in demographic parameters are observed and are linked to age-related differences in foraging distribution and efficiency. Marked sex-specific differences in foraging distribution, foraging efficiency and changes in mass over lifetime are directly related to the strong sex-specific investment in breeding and survival trajectories of the two sexes, with body mass playing a pivotal role especially in males. Long-term study has allowed determining the sex-specific and age-specific demographic causes of population decline, and the tracking studies have been able to derive where and how these impacts occur, in particular the role of long-line fisheries. © 2018 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

PubMed

Che-Castaldo, Christian; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Youngflesh, Casey; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Humphries, Grant; McDowall, Philip; Landrum, Laura; Holland, Marika M; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Lynch, Heather J

2017-10-10

Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Niels M.; Ims, Rolf A.; Høye, Toke T.; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H.; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Sittler, Benoit

2012-01-01

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state. PMID:22977153

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

PubMed

Schmidt, Niels M; Ims, Rolf A; Høye, Toke T; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C; Sittler, Benoit

2012-11-07

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

Linking Individual and Collective Behavior in Adaptive Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinheiro, Flávio L.; Santos, Francisco C.; Pacheco, Jorge M.

2016-03-01

Adaptive social structures are known to promote the evolution of cooperation. However, up to now the characterization of the collective, population-wide dynamics resulting from the self-organization of individual strategies on a coevolving, adaptive network has remained unfeasible. Here we establish a (reversible) link between individual (micro)behavior and collective (macro)behavior for coevolutionary processes. We demonstrate that an adaptive network transforms a two-person social dilemma locally faced by individuals into a collective dynamics that resembles that associated with an N -person coordination game, whose characterization depends sensitively on the relative time scales between the entangled behavioral and network evolutions. In particular, we show that the faster the relative rate of adaptation of the network, the smaller the critical fraction of cooperators required for cooperation to prevail, thus establishing a direct link between network adaptation and the evolution of cooperation. The framework developed here is general and may be readily applied to other dynamical processes occurring on adaptive networks, notably, the spreading of contagious diseases or the diffusion of innovations.

Distribution pattern of picoplankton carbon biomass linked to mesoscale dynamics in the southern gulf of Mexico during winter conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linacre, Lorena; Lara-Lara, Rubén; Camacho-Ibar, Víctor; Herguera, Juan Carlos; Bazán-Guzmán, Carmen; Ferreira-Bartrina, Vicente

2015-12-01

In order to characterize the carbon biomass spatial distribution of autotrophic and heterotrophic picoplankton populations linked to mesoscale dynamics, an investigation over an extensive open-ocean region of the southern Gulf of Mexico (GM) was conducted. Seawater samples from the mixed layer were collected during wintertime (February-March 2013). Picoplankton populations were counted and sorted using flow cytometry analyses. Carbon biomass was assessed based on in situ cell abundances and conversion factors from the literature. Approximately 46% of the total picoplankton biomass was composed of three autotrophic populations (Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and pico-eukaryotes), while 54% consisted of heterotrophic bacteria populations. Prochlorococcus spp. was the most abundant pico-primary producer (>80%), and accounted for more than 60% of the total pico-autotrophic biomass. The distribution patterns of picoplankton biomass were strongly associated with the mesoscale dynamics that modulated the hydrographic conditions of the surface mixed layer. The main features of the carbon distribution pattern were: (1) the deepening of picoplankton biomass to layers closer to the nitracline base in anticyclonic eddies; (2) the shoaling of picoplankton biomass in cyclonic eddies, constraining the autoprokaryote biomasses to the upper layers, as well as accumulating the pico-eukaryote biomass in the cold core of the eddies; and (3) the increase of heterotrophic bacteria biomass in frontal regions between counter-paired anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies. Factors related to nutrient preferences and light conditions may as well have contributed to the distribution pattern of the microbial populations. The findings reveal the great influence of the mesoscale dynamics on the distribution of picoplankton populations within the mixed layer. Moreover, the significance of microbial components (especially Prochlorococcus) in the southern GM during winter conditions was revealed, indicating that they may play an important role in the pelagic food web, and that they may have a substantial impact on the carbon cycle in oligotrophic regions.

CDMetaPOP: An individual-based, eco-evolutionary model for spatially explicit simulation of landscape demogenetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Landguth, Erin L; Bearlin, Andrew; Day, Casey; Dunham, Jason B.

2016-01-01

1. Combining landscape demographic and genetics models offers powerful methods for addressing questions for eco-evolutionary applications.2. Using two illustrative examples, we present Cost–Distance Meta-POPulation, a program to simulate changes in neutral and/or selection-driven genotypes through time as a function of individual-based movement, complex spatial population dynamics, and multiple and changing landscape drivers.3. Cost–Distance Meta-POPulation provides a novel tool for questions in landscape genetics by incorporating population viability analysis, while linking directly to conservation applications.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

A Computational Model for Oocyte Growth Dynamics in Fathead Minnows

EPA Science Inventory

Molecular biomarkers have been used in ecotoxicological studies to evaluate the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals in fish. Changes in these molecular biomarkers must then be linked to the effects upon reproduction in individuals, and subsequently populations. To meet th...

A Computational Model for Oocyte Growth Dynamics in Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas)

EPA Science Inventory

Molecular biomarkers have been used in ecotoxicological studies to evaluate the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals in fish. Ideally, changes in these molecular biomarkers should be linked to the effects upon reproduction in individuals, and subsequently populations. To m...

The population genetics of X-autosome synthetic lethals and steriles.

PubMed

Lachance, Joseph; Johnson, Norman A; True, John R

2011-11-01

Epistatic interactions are widespread, and many of these interactions involve combinations of alleles at different loci that are deleterious when present in the same individual. The average genetic environment of sex-linked genes differs from that of autosomal genes, suggesting that the population genetics of interacting X-linked and autosomal alleles may be complex. Using both analytical theory and computer simulations, we analyzed the evolutionary trajectories and mutation-selection balance conditions for X-autosome synthetic lethals and steriles. Allele frequencies follow a set of fundamental trajectories, and incompatible alleles are able to segregate at much higher frequencies than single-locus expectations. Equilibria exist, and they can involve fixation of either autosomal or X-linked alleles. The exact equilibrium depends on whether synthetic alleles are dominant or recessive and whether fitness effects are seen in males, females, or both sexes. When single-locus fitness effects and synthetic incompatibilities are both present, population dynamics depend on the dominance of alleles and historical contingency (i.e., whether X-linked or autosomal mutations occur first). Recessive synthetic lethality can result in high-frequency X-linked alleles, and dominant synthetic lethality can result in high-frequency autosomal alleles. Many X-autosome incompatibilities in natural populations may be cryptic, appearing to be single-locus effects because one locus is fixed. We also discuss the implications of these findings with respect to standing genetic variation and the origins of Haldane's rule.

Master Middle Ware: A Tool to Integrate Water Resources and Fish Population Dynamics Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, S.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Thompson, L. C.; Kilduff, D. P.

2017-12-01

Linking models that investigate separate components of ecosystem processes has the potential to unify messages regarding management decisions by evaluating potential trade-offs in a cohesive framework. This project aimed to improve the ability of riparian resource managers to forecast future water availability conditions and resultant fish habitat suitability, in order to better inform their management decisions. To accomplish this goal, we developed a middleware tool that is capable of linking and overseeing the operations of two existing models, a water resource planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and a habitat-based fish population dynamics model (WEAPhish). First, we designed the Master Middle Ware (MMW) software in Visual Basic for Application® in one Excel® file that provided a familiar framework for both data input and output Second, MMW was used to link and jointly operate WEAP and WEAPhish, using Visual Basic Application (VBA) macros to implement system level calls to run the models. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, hydrological, biological, and middleware model components were developed for the Butte Creek basin. This tributary of the Sacramento River, California is managed for both hydropower and the persistence of a threatened population of spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha). While we have demonstrated the use of MMW for a particular watershed and fish population, MMW can be customized for use with different rivers and fish populations, assuming basic data requirements are met. This model integration improves on ad hoc linkages for managing data transfer between software programs by providing a consistent, user-friendly, and familiar interface across different model implementations. Furthermore, the data-viewing capabilities of MMW facilitate the rapid interpretation of model results by hydrologists, fisheries biologists, and resource managers, in order to accelerate learning and management decision making.

Dynamic social networks promote cooperation in experiments with humans

PubMed Central

Rand, David G.; Arbesman, Samuel; Christakis, Nicholas A.

2011-01-01

Human populations are both highly cooperative and highly organized. Human interactions are not random but rather are structured in social networks. Importantly, ties in these networks often are dynamic, changing in response to the behavior of one's social partners. This dynamic structure permits an important form of conditional action that has been explored theoretically but has received little empirical attention: People can respond to the cooperation and defection of those around them by making or breaking network links. Here, we present experimental evidence of the power of using strategic link formation and dissolution, and the network modification it entails, to stabilize cooperation in sizable groups. Our experiments explore large-scale cooperation, where subjects’ cooperative actions are equally beneficial to all those with whom they interact. Consistent with previous research, we find that cooperation decays over time when social networks are shuffled randomly every round or are fixed across all rounds. We also find that, when networks are dynamic but are updated only infrequently, cooperation again fails. However, when subjects can update their network connections frequently, we see a qualitatively different outcome: Cooperation is maintained at a high level through network rewiring. Subjects preferentially break links with defectors and form new links with cooperators, creating an incentive to cooperate and leading to substantial changes in network structure. Our experiments confirm the predictions of a set of evolutionary game theoretic models and demonstrate the important role that dynamic social networks can play in supporting large-scale human cooperation. PMID:22084103

Modelling and Control of Robotic Leg as Assistive Device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jingye, Yee; Zain, Badrul Aisham bin Md

2017-10-01

The ageing population (people older than 60 years old) is expected to constitute 21.8% of global population by year 2050. When human ages, bodily function including locomotors will deteriorate. Besides, there are hundreds of thousands of victims who suffer from multiple health conditions worldwide that leads to gait impairment. A promising solution will be the lower limb powered-exoskeleton. This study is to be a start-up platform to design a lower limb powered-exoskeleton for a normal Malaysian male, by designing and simulating the dynamic model of a 2-link robotic leg to observe its behaviour under different input conditions with and without a PID controller. Simulink in MATLAB software is used as the dynamic modelling and simulation software for this study. It is observed that the 2-links robotic leg behaved differently under different input conditions, and perform the best when it is constrained and controlled by PID controller. Simulink model is formed as a foundation for the upcoming researches and can be modified and utilised by the future researchers.

Spatially cascading effect of perturbations in experimental meta-ecosystems.

PubMed

Harvey, Eric; Gounand, Isabelle; Ganesanandamoorthy, Pravin; Altermatt, Florian

2016-09-14

Ecosystems are linked to neighbouring ecosystems not only by dispersal, but also by the movement of subsidy. Such subsidy couplings between ecosystems have important landscape-scale implications because perturbations in one ecosystem may affect community structure and functioning in neighbouring ecosystems via increased/decreased subsidies. Here, we combine a general theoretical approach based on harvesting theory and a two-patch protist meta-ecosystem experiment to test the effect of regional perturbations on local community dynamics. We first characterized the relationship between the perturbation regime and local population demography on detritus production using a mathematical model. We then experimentally simulated a perturbation gradient affecting connected ecosystems simultaneously, thus altering cross-ecosystem subsidy exchanges. We demonstrate that the perturbation regime can interact with local population dynamics to trigger unexpected temporal variations in subsidy pulses from one ecosystem to another. High perturbation intensity initially led to the highest level of subsidy flows; however, the level of perturbation interacted with population dynamics to generate a crash in subsidy exchange over time. Both theoretical and experimental results show that a perturbation regime interacting with local community dynamics can induce a collapse in population levels for recipient ecosystems. These results call for integrative management of human-altered landscapes that takes into account regional dynamics of both species and resource flows. © 2016 The Author(s).

Trade-offs between pasture production and farmland bird conservation: exploration of options using a dynamic farm model.

PubMed

Sabatier, R; Teillard, F; Rossing, W A H; Doyen, L; Tichit, M

2015-05-01

In European grassland landscapes, grazing and mowing play a key role for the maintenance of high-quality habitats that host important bird populations. As grasslands are also key resources for cattle feeding, there is a need to develop management strategies that achieve the double objective of production and biodiversity conservation. The objective of this study was to use a modelling approach to generate recognisable patterns of bird dynamics in farms composed of different land use proportions, and to compare their production and ecological dimensions. We developed a dynamic model, which linked grassland management to bird population dynamics at the field and farm levels. The model was parameterised for two types of suckling farms corresponding to contrasting levels of grassland intensification and for two bird species of high conservation value. A viability algorithm was used to define and assess viable management strategies for production and ecological performance so as to draw the shape of the relationship between both types of performances for the two types of farms. Our results indicated that, at the farm level, there was a farming system effect with a negative and non-linear relationship linking performance. Improving bird population maintenance was less costly in extensive farms compared with intensive farms. At the field level, the model predicted the timing and intensity of land use, maximising either production or ecological performance. The results suggested that multi-objective grassland management would benefit from public policies that consider levels of organisation higher than the field level, such as the farm or the landscape.

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

PubMed Central

Wells, Konstans; Brook, Barry W.; Lacy, Robert C.; Mutze, Greg J.; Peacock, David E.; Sinclair, Ron G.; Schwensow, Nina; Cassey, Phillip; O'Hara, Robert B.; Fordham, Damien A.

2015-01-01

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species. PMID:25566883

Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamics.

PubMed

Trzcinski, M Kurtis; Walde, Sandra J; Taylor, Philip D

2008-11-01

1. Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (r(max)) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average r(max) will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2. Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3. Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of r(max) obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1 x 5 to 2 x 7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected r(max). 4. Higher r(max) was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher r(max) also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5. This study demonstrates that the link between r(max) and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations.

Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

2017-01-01

Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population dynamics and movement propensities via spatial simulation modeling frameworks may provide an informative means of predicting long-term habitat use, particularly for fluctuating populations with complex seasonal habitat needs. Importantly, our results indicate the possible need to consider habitat selection models as a starting point rather than the common end point for refining and prioritizing habitats for protection for cyclic and highly variable populations.

LINKING HABITAT CHANGE AND NUTRIENT DYNAMICS: COMPARISON OF FOOD WEBS AND NITROGEN FLUXES IN BURROWING SHRIMP- AND OYSTER-DOMINATED HABITATS

EPA Science Inventory

Endemic thalassinid burrowing shrimps are simultaneously dominant ecosystem engineering species and economic pests within Pacific estuaries. Dense populations of two shrimps (Neotrypaea californiensis and Upogebia pugettensis) commonly occupy >75% of intertidal and shallow subti...

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interconnectedness and modularity

PubMed Central

Nordbotten, Jan M.; Levin, Simon A.; Szathmáry, Eörs; Stenseth, Nils C.

2018-01-01

In this contribution, we develop a theoretical framework for linking microprocesses (i.e., population dynamics and evolution through natural selection) with macrophenomena (such as interconnectedness and modularity within an ecological system). This is achieved by developing a measure of interconnectedness for population distributions defined on a trait space (generalizing the notion of modularity on graphs), in combination with an evolution equation for the population distribution. With this contribution, we provide a platform for understanding under what environmental, ecological, and evolutionary conditions ecosystems evolve toward being more or less modular. A major contribution of this work is that we are able to decompose the overall driver of changes at the macro level (such as interconnectedness) into three components: (i) ecologically driven change, (ii) evolutionarily driven change, and (iii) environmentally driven change. PMID:29311333

Vulnerability of a killer whale social network to disease outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães, Paulo R., Jr.; de Menezes, Márcio Argollo; Baird, Robin W.; Lusseau, David; Guimarães, Paulo; Dos Reis, Sérgio F.

2007-10-01

Emerging infectious diseases are among the main threats to conservation of biological diversity. A crucial task facing epidemiologists is to predict the vulnerability of populations of endangered animals to disease outbreaks. In this context, the network structure of social interactions within animal populations may affect disease spreading. However, endangered animal populations are often small and to investigate the dynamics of small networks is a difficult task. Using network theory, we show that the social structure of an endangered population of mammal-eating killer whales is vulnerable to disease outbreaks. This feature was found to be a consequence of the combined effects of the topology and strength of social links among individuals. Our results uncover a serious challenge for conservation of the species and its ecosystem. In addition, this study shows that the network approach can be useful to study dynamical processes in very small networks.

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Proximate Population Factors and Deforestation in Tropical Agricultural Frontiers

PubMed Central

Carr, David L.

2009-01-01

Forest conversion for agriculture expansion is the most salient signature of human occupation of the earth’s land surface. Although population growth and deforestation are significantly associated at the global and regional scales, evidence for population links to deforestation at micro-scales—where people are actually clearing0020forests—is scant. Much of the planet’s forest elimination is proceeding along tropical agricultural frontiers. This article examines the evolution of thought on population–environment theories relevant to deforestation in tropical agricultural frontiers. Four primary ways by which population dynamics interact with frontier forest conversion are examined: population density, fertility, and household demographic composition, and in-migration. PMID:19672475

Development of known-fate survival monitoring techniques for juvenile wild pigs (Sus scrofa)

Treesearch

David A. Keiter; John C. Kilgo; Mark A. Vukovich; Fred L. Cunningham; James C. Beasley

2017-01-01

Context. Wild pigs are an invasive species linked to numerous negative impacts on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems in many regions of the world. Robust estimates of juvenile wild pig survival are needed to improve population dynamics models to facilitate management of this economically and ecologically...

Genetic diversity affects the strength of population regulation in a marine fish.

PubMed

Johnson, D W; Freiwald, J; Bernardi, G

2016-03-01

Variation is an essential feature of biological populations, yet much of ecological theory treats individuals as though they are identical. This simplifying assumption is often justified by the perception that variation among individuals does not have significant effects on the dynamics of whole populations. However, this perception may be skewed by a historic focus on studying single populations. A true evaluation of the extent to which among-individual variation affects the dynamics of populations requires the study of multiple populations. In this study, we examined variation in the dynamics of populations of a live-bearing, marine fish (black surfperch; Embiotoca jacksoni). In collaboration with an organization of citizen scientists (Reef Check California), we were able to examine the dynamics of eight populations that were distributed throughout approximately 700 km of coastline, a distance that encompasses much of this species' range. We hypothesized that genetic variation within a local population would be related to the intensity of competition and to the strength of population regulation. To test this hypothesis, we examined whether genetic diversity (measured by the diversity of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes) was related to the strength of population regulation. Low-diversity populations experienced strong density dependence in population growth rates and population sizes were regulated much more tightly than they were in high-diversity populations. Mechanisms that contributed to this pattern include links between genetic diversity, habitat use, and spatial crowding. On average, low-diversity populations used less of the available habitat and exhibited greater spatial clustering (and more intense competition) for a given level of density (measured at the scale of the reef). Although the populations we studied also varied with respect to exogenous characteristics (habitat complexity, densities of predators, and interspecific competitors), none of these characteristics was significantly related to the strength of population regulation. In contrast, an endogenous characteristic of the population (genetic diversity) explained 77% of the variation in the strength of population regulation (95% CI: 27-94%). Our results suggest that the genetic and phenotypic composition of populations can play a major role in their dynamics.

Cytonuclear Theory for Haplodiploid Species and X-Linked Genes. I. Hardy-Weinberg Dynamics and Continent-Island, Hybrid Zone Models

PubMed Central

Goodisman, MAD.; Asmussen, M. A.

1997-01-01

We develop models that describe the cytonuclear structure for either a cytoplasmic and nuclear marker in a haplodiploid species or a cytoplasmic and X-linked marker in a diploid species. Sex-specific disequilibrium statistics that summarize nonrandom cytonuclear associations in such systems are defined, and their basic Hardy-Weinberg dynamics and admixture formulae are delimited. We focus on the context of hybrid zones and develop continent-island models whereby individuals from two genetically differentiated source populations migrate into and mate within a single zone of admixture. We examine the effects of differential migration of the sexes, assortative mating by pure type females, and census time (relative to mating and migration), as well as special cases of random mating and migration subsumed under the general models. We show that pure type individuals and nonzero cytonuclear disequilibria can be maintained within a hybrid zone if there is continued migration from both source populations, and that females generally have a greater influence over these cytonuclear variables than males. The resulting theoretical framework can be used to estimate the rates of assortative mating and sex-specific gene flow in hybrid zones and other zones of admixture involving haplodiploid or sex-linked cytonuclear data. PMID:9286692

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance that comparative analyses are colored by model details rather than general principles

A parametric interpretation of Bayesian Nonparametric Inference from Gene Genealogies: Linking ecological, population genetics and evolutionary processes.

PubMed

Ponciano, José Miguel

2017-11-22

Using a nonparametric Bayesian approach Palacios and Minin (2013) dramatically improved the accuracy, precision of Bayesian inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies. These authors proposed an extension of a Gaussian Process (GP) nonparametric inferential method for the intensity function of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. They found that not only the statistical properties of the estimators were improved with their method, but also, that key aspects of the demographic histories were recovered. The authors' work represents the first Bayesian nonparametric solution to this inferential problem because they specify a convenient prior belief without a particular functional form on the population trajectory. Their approach works so well and provides such a profound understanding of the biological process, that the question arises as to how truly "biology-free" their approach really is. Using well-known concepts of stochastic population dynamics, here I demonstrate that in fact, Palacios and Minin's GP model can be cast as a parametric population growth model with density dependence and environmental stochasticity. Making this link between population genetics and stochastic population dynamics modeling provides novel insights into eliciting biologically meaningful priors for the trajectory of the effective population size. The results presented here also bring novel understanding of GP as models for the evolution of a trait. Thus, the ecological principles foundation of Palacios and Minin (2013)'s prior adds to the conceptual and scientific value of these authors' inferential approach. I conclude this note by listing a series of insights brought about by this connection with Ecology. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interconnectedness and modularity.

PubMed

Nordbotten, Jan M; Levin, Simon A; Szathmáry, Eörs; Stenseth, Nils C

2018-01-23

In this contribution, we develop a theoretical framework for linking microprocesses (i.e., population dynamics and evolution through natural selection) with macrophenomena (such as interconnectedness and modularity within an ecological system). This is achieved by developing a measure of interconnectedness for population distributions defined on a trait space (generalizing the notion of modularity on graphs), in combination with an evolution equation for the population distribution. With this contribution, we provide a platform for understanding under what environmental, ecological, and evolutionary conditions ecosystems evolve toward being more or less modular. A major contribution of this work is that we are able to decompose the overall driver of changes at the macro level (such as interconnectedness) into three components: ( i ) ecologically driven change, ( ii ) evolutionarily driven change, and ( iii ) environmentally driven change. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

The effect of climatic forcing on population synchrony and genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx

PubMed Central

Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Rueness, Eli Knispel; Lingjærde, Ole Chr.; Chan, Kung-Sik; Boutin, Stan; O'Donoghue, Mark; Robinson, David A.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Jakobsen, Kjetill S.

2004-01-01

The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the “climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns” model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics. PMID:15067131

Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Annabel L

2018-01-01

Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Bateman, Andrew W; English, Sinead; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2014-11-01

Social and environmental factors influence key life-history processes and population dynamics by affecting fitness-related phenotypic traits such as body mass. The role of body mass is particularly pronounced in cooperative breeders due to variation in social status and consequent variation in access to resources. Investigating the mechanisms underlying variation in body mass and its demographic consequences can help elucidate how social and environmental factors affect the dynamics of cooperatively breeding populations. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of individual variation in body mass on the temporal dynamics of group size and structure of a cooperatively breeding mongoose, the Kalahari meerkat, Suricata suricatta. First, we investigate how body mass interacts with social (dominance status and number of helpers) and environmental (rainfall and season) factors to influence key life-history processes (survival, growth, emigration and reproduction) in female meerkats. Next, using an individual-based population model, we show that the models explicitly including individual variation in body mass predict group dynamics better than those ignoring this morphological trait. Body mass influences group dynamics mainly through its effects on helper emigration and dominant reproduction. Rainfall has a trait-mediated, destabilizing effect on group dynamics, whereas the number of helpers has a direct and stabilizing effect. Counteracting effects of number of helpers on different demographic rates, despite generating temporal fluctuations, stabilizes group dynamics in the long term. Our study demonstrates that social and environmental factors interact to produce individual variation in body mass and accounting for this variation helps to explain group dynamics in this cooperatively breeding population. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics.

PubMed

Wells, Konstans; Brook, Barry W; Lacy, Robert C; Mutze, Greg J; Peacock, David E; Sinclair, Ron G; Schwensow, Nina; Cassey, Phillip; O'Hara, Robert B; Fordham, Damien A

2015-02-06

Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Quantitative time-resolved chemoproteomics reveals that stable O-GlcNAc regulates box C/D snoRNP biogenesis

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Lv, Pinou; Fan, Xinqi; Quan, Baiyi; Zhu, Yuntao; Qin, Ke; Chen, Ying; Wang, Chu

2017-01-01

O-linked GlcNAcylation (O-GlcNAcylation), a ubiquitous posttranslational modification on intracellular proteins, is dynamically regulated in cells. To analyze the turnover dynamics of O-GlcNAcylated proteins, we developed a quantitative time-resolved O-linked GlcNAc proteomics (qTOP) strategy based on metabolic pulse-chase labeling with an O-GlcNAc chemical reporter and stable isotope labeling with amino acids in cell culture (SILAC). Applying qTOP, we quantified the turnover rates of 533 O-GlcNAcylated proteins in NIH 3T3 cells and discovered that about 14% exhibited minimal removal of O-GlcNAc or degradation of protein backbones. The stability of those hyperstable O-GlcNAcylated proteins was more sensitive to O-GlcNAcylation inhibition compared with the more dynamic populations. Among the hyperstable population were three core proteins of box C/D small nucleolar ribonucleoprotein complexes (snoRNPs): fibrillarin (FBL), nucleolar protein 5A (NOP56), and nucleolar protein 5 (NOP58). We showed that O-GlcNAcylation stabilized these proteins and was essential for snoRNP assembly. Blocking O-GlcNAcylation on FBL altered the 2′-O-methylation of rRNAs and impaired cancer cell proliferation and tumor formation in vivo. PMID:28760965

Linking TFT-LCD wastewater treatment performance to microbial population abundance of Hyphomicrobium and Thiobacillus spp.

PubMed

Fukushima, Toshikazu; Whang, Liang-Ming; Chen, Po-Chun; Putri, Dyah Wulandari; Chang, Ming-Yu; Wu, Yi-Ju; Lee, Ya-Ching

2013-08-01

This study investigated the linkage between performance of two full-scale membrane bioreactor (MBR) systems treating thin-film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) wastewater and the population dynamics of dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO)/dimethylsulfide (DMS) degrading bacteria. High DMSO degradation efficiencies were achieved in both MBRs, while the levels of nitrification inhibition due to DMS production from DMSO degradation were different in the two MBRs. The results of real-time PCR targeting on DMSO/DMS degrading populations, including Hyphomicrobium and Thiobacillus spp., indicated that a higher DMSO oxidation efficiency occurred at a higher Hyphomicrobium spp. abundance in the systems, suggesting that Hyphomicrobium spp. may be more important for complete DMSO oxidation to sulfate compared with Thiobacillus spp. Furthermore, Thiobacillus spp. was more abundant during poor nitrification, while Hyphomicrobium spp. was more abundant during good nitrification. It is suggested that microbial population of DMSO/DMS degrading bacteria is closely linking to both DMSO/DMS degradation efficiency and nitrification performance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Queues on a Dynamically Evolving Graph

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandjes, Michel; Starreveld, Nicos J.; Bekker, René

2018-04-01

This paper considers a population process on a dynamically evolving graph, which can be alternatively interpreted as a queueing network. The queues are of infinite-server type, entailing that at each node all customers present are served in parallel. The links that connect the queues have the special feature that they are unreliable, in the sense that their status alternates between `up' and `down'. If a link between two nodes is down, with a fixed probability each of the clients attempting to use that link is lost; otherwise the client remains at the origin node and reattempts using the link (and jumps to the destination node when it finds the link restored). For these networks we present the following results: (a) a system of coupled partial differential equations that describes the joint probability generating function corresponding to the queues' time-dependent behavior (and a system of ordinary differential equations for its stationary counterpart), (b) an algorithm to evaluate the (time-dependent and stationary) moments, and procedures to compute user-perceived performance measures which facilitate the quantification of the impact of the links' outages, (c) a diffusion limit for the joint queue length process. We include explicit results for a series relevant special cases, such as tandem networks and symmetric fully connected networks.

Reading-Related Causal Attributions for Success and Failure: Dynamic Links with Reading Skill

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frijters, Jan C.; Tsujimoto, Kimberley C.; Boada, Richard; Gottwald, Stephanie; Hill, Dina; Jacobson, Lisa A.; Lovett, Maureen W.; Mahone, E. Mark; Willcutt, Erik G.; Wolf, Maryanne; Bosson-Heenan, Joan; Gruen, Jeffrey R.

2018-01-01

The present study investigated the relation among reading skills and attributions, naming speed, and phonological awareness across a wide range of reading skill. Participants were 1,105 school-age children and youths from two understudied populations: African Americans and Hispanic Americans. Individual assessments of children ranging in age from…

Biology, demography and community interactions of Tarsonemus (Acarina: Tarsonemidae) mites phoretic on Dendroctonus frontalis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Treesearch

Maria J. Lombardero; Kier D. Klepzig; Metthew P. Ayres

2000-01-01

1 Dendroctonus frontalis, the southern pine beetle, is associated with a diverse community of fungi and mites that are phoretic on the adult beetles. Tarsonemus ips, T. kranzti and T. fusurii (Acarina: Tarsonemidae) may interact within this community in ways that link the population dynamics of D....

Model structure of the stream salmonid simulator (S3)—A dynamic model for simulating growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Jones, Edward C.; Som, Nicholas A.; Hetrick, Nicholas J.; Hardy, Thomas B.

2018-04-06

Fisheries and water managers often use population models to aid in understanding the effect of alternative water management or restoration actions on anadromous fish populations. We developed the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to help resource managers evaluate the effect of management alternatives on juvenile salmonid populations. S3 is a deterministic stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and usable habitat area or carrying capacity. The physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit, in turn, drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units.The purpose of this report is to outline the underlying general structure of the S3 model that is common among different applications of the model. We have developed applications of the S3 model for juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the lower Klamath River. Thus, this report is a companion to current application of the S3 model to the Trinity River (in review). The general S3 model structure provides a biological and physical framework for the salmonid freshwater life cycle. This framework captures important demographics of juvenile salmonids aimed at translating management alternatives into simulated population responses. Although the S3 model is built on this common framework, the model has been constructed to allow much flexibility in application of the model to specific river systems. The ability for practitioners to include system-specific information for the physical stream structure, survival, growth, and movement processes ensures that simulations provide results that are relevant to the questions asked about the population under study.

Induced changes in island fox (Urocyon littoralis) activity do not mitigate the extinction threat posed by a novel predator.

PubMed

Hudgens, Brian R; Garcelon, David K

2011-03-01

Prey response to novel predators influences the impacts on prey populations of introduced predators, bio-control efforts, and predator range expansion. Predicting the impacts of novel predators on native prey requires an understanding of both predator avoidance strategies and their potential to reduce predation risk. We examine the response of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) to invasion by golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Foxes reduced daytime activity and increased night time activity relative to eagle-naïve foxes. Individual foxes reverted toward diurnal tendencies following eagle removal efforts. We quantified the potential population impact of reduced diurnality by modeling island fox population dynamics. Our model predicted an annual population decline similar to what was observed following golden eagle invasion and predicted that the observed 11% reduction in daytime activity would not reduce predation risk sufficiently to reduce extinction risk. The limited effect of this behaviorally plastic predator avoidance strategy highlights the importance of linking behavioral change to population dynamics for predicting the impact of novel predators on resident prey populations.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics.

PubMed

Kirk, Devin; Jones, Natalie; Peacock, Stephanie; Phillips, Jessica; Molnár, Péter K; Krkošek, Martin; Luijckx, Pepijn

2018-02-01

The complexity of host-parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host-parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host-parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics

PubMed Central

Jones, Natalie; Peacock, Stephanie; Phillips, Jessica; Molnár, Péter K.; Krkošek, Martin; Luijckx, Pepijn

2018-01-01

The complexity of host–parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host–parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host–parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level. PMID:29415043

Estimating the Size of the Methamphetamine-Using Population in New York City Using Network Sampling Techniques.

PubMed

Dombrowski, Kirk; Khan, Bilal; Wendel, Travis; McLean, Katherine; Misshula, Evan; Curtis, Ric

2012-12-01

As part of a recent study of the dynamics of the retail market for methamphetamine use in New York City, we used network sampling methods to estimate the size of the total networked population. This process involved sampling from respondents' list of co-use contacts, which in turn became the basis for capture-recapture estimation. Recapture sampling was based on links to other respondents derived from demographic and "telefunken" matching procedures-the latter being an anonymized version of telephone number matching. This paper describes the matching process used to discover the links between the solicited contacts and project respondents, the capture-recapture calculation, the estimation of "false matches", and the development of confidence intervals for the final population estimates. A final population of 12,229 was estimated, with a range of 8235 - 23,750. The techniques described here have the special virtue of deriving an estimate for a hidden population while retaining respondent anonymity and the anonymity of network alters, but likely require larger sample size than the 132 persons interviewed to attain acceptable confidence levels for the estimate.

Human group formation in online guilds and offline gangs driven by a common team dynamic.

PubMed

Johnson, Neil F; Xu, Chen; Zhao, Zhenyuan; Ducheneaut, Nicolas; Yee, Nicholas; Tita, George; Hui, Pak Ming

2009-06-01

Quantifying human group dynamics represents a unique challenge. Unlike animals and other biological systems, humans form groups in both real (offline) and virtual (online) spaces-from potentially dangerous street gangs populated mostly by disaffected male youths to the massive global guilds in online role-playing games for which membership currently exceeds tens of millions of people from all possible backgrounds, age groups, and genders. We have compiled and analyzed data for these two seemingly unrelated offline and online human activities and have uncovered an unexpected quantitative link between them. Although their overall dynamics differ visibly, we find that a common team-based model can accurately reproduce the quantitative features of each simply by adjusting the average tolerance level and attribute range for each population. By contrast, we find no evidence to support a version of the model based on like-seeking-like (i.e., kinship or "homophily").

Human group formation in online guilds and offline gangs driven by a common team dynamic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Neil F.; Xu, Chen; Zhao, Zhenyuan; Ducheneaut, Nicolas; Yee, Nicholas; Tita, George; Hui, Pak Ming

2009-06-01

Quantifying human group dynamics represents a unique challenge. Unlike animals and other biological systems, humans form groups in both real (offline) and virtual (online) spaces—from potentially dangerous street gangs populated mostly by disaffected male youths to the massive global guilds in online role-playing games for which membership currently exceeds tens of millions of people from all possible backgrounds, age groups, and genders. We have compiled and analyzed data for these two seemingly unrelated offline and online human activities and have uncovered an unexpected quantitative link between them. Although their overall dynamics differ visibly, we find that a common team-based model can accurately reproduce the quantitative features of each simply by adjusting the average tolerance level and attribute range for each population. By contrast, we find no evidence to support a version of the model based on like-seeking-like (i.e., kinship or “homophily”).

Modeling mechanical interactions in growing populations of rod-shaped bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkle, James J.; Igoshin, Oleg A.; Bennett, Matthew R.; Josić, Krešimir; Ott, William

2017-10-01

Advances in synthetic biology allow us to engineer bacterial collectives with pre-specified characteristics. However, the behavior of these collectives is difficult to understand, as cellular growth and division as well as extra-cellular fluid flow lead to complex, changing arrangements of cells within the population. To rationally engineer and control the behavior of cell collectives we need theoretical and computational tools to understand their emergent spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, we present an agent-based model that allows growing cells to detect and respond to mechanical interactions. Crucially, our model couples the dynamics of cell growth to the cell’s environment: Mechanical constraints can affect cellular growth rate and a cell may alter its behavior in response to these constraints. This coupling links the mechanical forces that influence cell growth and emergent behaviors in cell assemblies. We illustrate our approach by showing how mechanical interactions can impact the dynamics of bacterial collectives growing in microfluidic traps.

Modeling the influence of information on the coevolution of contact networks and the dynamics of infectious diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu, Xinchu; Sun, Guiquan; Wang, Binghong

2012-09-01

Outbreaks of infectious diseases may awaken the awareness of individuals, consequently, they may adjust their contact patterns according to the perceived risk from disease. In this paper, we assume that individuals make decisions on breaking or recovering links according to the information of diseases spreading which they have acquired. They will reduce some links when diseases are prevalent and have high risks; otherwise, they will recover some original links when the diseases are controlled or present minimal risk. Under such an assumption, we study the effects of information of diseases on the contact patterns within the population and on the dynamics of epidemics. By extensive simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that, due to the time-delayed information of diseases, both the density of the disease and the topology of the network vary with time in a periodic form. Our results indicate that the quality of information available to individuals can have an important effect on the spreading of infectious diseases and implications for related problems.

Assessing Land Management Changes and Population Dynamics in Central Burkina Faso in Response to Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabore Bontogho, P. E.; Boubacar, I.; Afouda, A.; Joerg, H.

2015-12-01

Assessing landscape and population's dynamics at watershed level contribute to address anthropogenic aspect of climate change issue owing to the close link between LULC and climate changes. The objective of this study is to explore the dependencies of population to land management changes in Massili basin (2612 km²) located in central Burkina Faso. A set of three satellite scenes was acquired for the years 1990 (Landsat 7 ETM), 2002 (Landsat 7 ETM+) and 2013 (Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS) from the Global Land Cover Facility's (GLCF) website. Census data were provided by the National institute of statistics and demographic (INSD). The satellites images were classified using object-oriented classification method which was supported by historic maps and field data. Those were collected in order to allow for class definition, verification and accuracy assessments. Based on the developed land use maps, change analysis was carried out using post classification comparison in GIS. Finally, derived land use changes were compared with census data in order to explore links between population dynamics and the land use changes. It was found in 1990 that Massili watershed LULC was dominated by Tree/shrub savannah (69%, 1802.28 km2 ), Farm/Fallow was representing 22%, Gallery forest (4%), Settlement (3%), Barre soil (1%), Water bodies (1%). In 2002, the major landscape was Farm (54%). Tree/Shrub savannas were reduced to 36% while the Gallery Forest was decreased to1% of the basin area. The situation has also slightly changed in 2013 with an increase of the area devoted to farm/fallow and settlement at a rate of 3% and Gallery forest has increased to 4%. The changes in land use are in agreement with a notable increase in population. The analysis of census data showed that the number of inhabitants increased from 338 inhabitants per km2 in 1990 to 1150 inhabitants per km2 in 2013. As shown by statistical analysis (Kendall correlation tau=0.9), there is a close relation between both dynamics.

Exploring the fitness landscape of poliovirus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianco, Simone; Acevedo, Ashely; Andino, Raul; Tang, Chao

2012-02-01

RNA viruses are known to display extraordinary adaptation capabilities to different environments, due to high mutation rates. Their very dynamical evolution is captured by the quasispecies concept, according to which the viral population forms a swarm of genetic variants linked through mutation, which cooperatively interact at a functional level and collectively contribute to the characteristics of the population. The description of the viral fitness landscape becomes paramount towards a more thorough understanding of the virus evolution and spread. The high mutation rate, together with the cooperative nature of the quasispecies, makes it particularly challenging to explore its fitness landscape. I will present an investigation of the dynamical properties of poliovirus fitness landscape, through both the adoption of new experimental techniques and theoretical models.

Modeling spatial competition for light in plant populations with the porous medium equation.

PubMed

Beyer, Robert; Etard, Octave; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Laurent-Gengoux, Pascal

2015-02-01

We consider a plant's local leaf area index as a spatially continuous variable, subject to particular reaction-diffusion dynamics of allocation, senescence and spatial propagation. The latter notably incorporates the plant's tendency to form new leaves in bright rather than shaded locations. Applying a generalized Beer-Lambert law allows to link existing foliage to production dynamics. The approach allows for inter-individual variability and competition for light while maintaining robustness-a key weakness of comparable existing models. The analysis of the single plant case leads to a significant simplification of the system's key equation when transforming it into the well studied porous medium equation. Confronting the theoretical model to experimental data of sugar beet populations, differing in configuration density, demonstrates its accuracy.

Dynamic social networks facilitate cooperation in the N-player Prisoner’s Dilemma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaei, Golriz; Kirley, Michael

2012-12-01

Understanding how cooperative behaviour evolves in network communities, where the individual members interact via social dilemma games, is an on-going challenge. In this paper, we introduce a social network based model to investigate the evolution of cooperation in the N-player Prisoner’s Dilemma game. As such, this work complements previous studies focused on multi-player social dilemma games and endogenous networks. Agents in our model, employ different game-playing strategies reflecting varying cognitive capacities. When an agent plays cooperatively, a social link is formed with each of the other N-1 group members. Subsequent cooperative actions reinforce this link. However, when an agent defects, the links in the social network are broken. Computational simulations across a range of parameter settings are used to examine different scenarios: varying population and group sizes; the group formation process (or partner selection); and agent decision-making strategies under varying dilemma constraints (cost-to-benefit ratios), including a “discriminator” strategy where the action is based on a function of the weighted links within an agent’s social network. The simulation results show that the proposed social network model is able to evolve and maintain cooperation. As expected, as the value of N increases the equilibrium proportion of cooperators in the population decreases. In addition, this outcome is dependent on the dilemma constraint (cost-to-benefit ratio). However, in some circumstances the dynamic social network plays an increasingly important role in promoting and sustaining cooperation, especially when the agents adopt the discriminator strategy. The adjustment of social links results in the formation of communities of “like-minded” agents. Subsequently, this local optimal behaviour promotes the evolution of cooperative behaviour at the system level.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

PubMed

Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

2010-05-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

Cellular dynamical mechanisms for encoding the time and place of events along spatiotemporal trajectories in episodic memory.

PubMed

Hasselmo, Michael E; Giocomo, Lisa M; Brandon, Mark P; Yoshida, Motoharu

2010-12-31

Understanding the mechanisms of episodic memory requires linking behavioral data and lesion effects to data on the dynamics of cellular membrane potentials and population interactions within brain regions. Linking behavior to specific membrane channels and neurochemicals has implications for therapeutic applications. Lesions of the hippocampus, entorhinal cortex and subcortical nuclei impair episodic memory function in humans and animals, and unit recording data from these regions in behaving animals indicate episodic memory processes. Intracellular recording in these regions demonstrates specific cellular properties including resonance, membrane potential oscillations and bistable persistent spiking that could underlie the encoding and retrieval of episodic trajectories. A model presented here shows how intrinsic dynamical properties of neurons could mediate the encoding of episodic memories as complex spatiotemporal trajectories. The dynamics of neurons allow encoding and retrieval of unique episodic trajectories in multiple continuous dimensions including temporal intervals, personal location, the spatial coordinates and sensory features of perceived objects and generated actions, and associations between these elements. The model also addresses how cellular dynamics could underlie unit firing data suggesting mechanisms for coding continuous dimensions of space, time, sensation and action. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cellular dynamical mechanisms for encoding the time and place of events along spatiotemporal trajectories in episodic memory

PubMed Central

Hasselmo, Michael E.; Giocomo, Lisa M.; Yoshida, Motoharu

2010-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of episodic memory requires linking behavioural data and lesion effects to data on the dynamics of cellular membrane potentials and population interactions within these brain regions. Linking behavior to specific membrane channels and neurochemicals has implications for therapeutic applications. Lesions of the hippocampus, entorhinal cortex and subcortical nuclei impair episodic memory function in humans and animals, and unit recording data from these regions in behaving animals indicate episodic memory processes. Intracellular recording in these regions demonstrates specific cellular properties including resonance, membrane potential oscillations and bistable persistent spiking that could underlie the encoding and retrieval of episodic trajectories. A model presented here shows how intrinsic dynamical properties of neurons could mediate the encoding of episodic memories as complex spatiotemporal trajectories. The dynamics of neurons allow encoding and retrieval of unique episodic trajectories in multiple continuous dimensions including temporal intervals, personal location, the spatial coordinates and sensory features of perceived objects and generated actions, and associations between these elements. The model also addresses how cellular dynamics could underlie unit firing data suggesting mechanisms for coding continuous dimensions of space, time, sensation and action. PMID:20018213

Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

PubMed Central

Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

2014-01-01

A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

Adaptive contact networks change effective disease infectiousness and dynamics.

PubMed

Van Segbroeck, Sven; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

2010-08-19

Human societies are organized in complex webs that are constantly reshaped by a social dynamic which is influenced by the information individuals have about others. Similarly, epidemic spreading may be affected by local information that makes individuals aware of the health status of their social contacts, allowing them to avoid contact with those infected and to remain in touch with the healthy. Here we study disease dynamics in finite populations in which infection occurs along the links of a dynamical contact network whose reshaping may be biased based on each individual's health status. We adopt some of the most widely used epidemiological models, investigating the impact of the reshaping of the contact network on the disease dynamics. We derive analytical results in the limit where network reshaping occurs much faster than disease spreading and demonstrate numerically that this limit extends to a much wider range of time scales than one might anticipate. Specifically, we show that from a population-level description, disease propagation in a quickly adapting network can be formulated equivalently as disease spreading on a well-mixed population but with a rescaled infectiousness. We find that for all models studied here--SI, SIS and SIR--the effective infectiousness of a disease depends on the population size, the number of infected in the population, and the capacity of healthy individuals to sever contacts with the infected. Importantly, we indicate how the use of available information hinders disease progression, either by reducing the average time required to eradicate a disease (in case recovery is possible), or by increasing the average time needed for a disease to spread to the entire population (in case recovery or immunity is impossible).

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

PubMed

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-11-07

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

Forest turnover rates follow global and regional patterns of productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephenson, N.L.; van Mantgem, P.J.

2005-01-01

Using a global database, we found that forest turnover rates (the average of tree mortality and recruitment rates) parallel broad-scale patterns of net primary productivity. First, forest turnover was higher in tropical than in temperate forests. Second, as recently demonstrated by others, Amazonian forest turnover was higher on fertile than infertile soils. Third, within temperate latitudes, turnover was highest in angiosperm forests, intermediate in mixed forests, and lowest in gymnosperm forests. Finally, within a single forest physiognomic type, turnover declined sharply with elevation (hence with temperature). These patterns of turnover in populations of trees are broadly similar to the patterns of turnover in populations of plant organs (leaves and roots) found in other studies. Our findings suggest a link between forest mass balance and the population dynamics of trees, and have implications for understanding and predicting the effects of environmental changes on forest structure and terrestrial carbon dynamics. ??2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

[Modelling of selection acting upon the pleioptropic locus in an asynchronous population].

PubMed

Zhdanov, O L; Frisman, E Ia

2014-08-01

We created and examined a mathematical model describing the size and genetic composition dynamics in a population with two age classes, where the survival of both zygotes and adult individuals is determined by one pleioptropic locus. Even under present limitations, as the outside effects of a complex multigenic system are reduced to the case of single locus, our model demonstrates a wide range of different evolutionary scenarios for possible changes in the population dynamics. An increase in the reproductive potential and survival is accompanied by a transition from stable to oscillating population numbers. However, the evolutionary growth of these parameters may be nonmonotonic and may fluctuate significantly. In the case of antagonistic pleioptropy, an increase in one of these parameters usually leads to a predictable decrease in the other. This, in turn, may even stabilize the numbers and genetic compositions of the age groups. We demonstrated that selection acting on later stages of the life cycle is accompanied by destabilization of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibriums that link allele and genotype frequencies. We obtained a balance ratio, which allowed us to compare the combined fitness of the genotypes and to demonstrate that selection leads to the exclusion of the least adapted genotypes. Initial conditionsmay in some cases determine the genetic composition and pattern of population size dynamics.

Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hui; Fogarty, Michael J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Glaser, Sarah M.; Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan; Sugihara, George

2014-03-01

The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based management of marine living resources. However, standard statistical models typically grounded in the concept of linear system may fail to capture the complexity of ecological processes. We have attempted to model ecosystem dynamics using a flexible, nonparametric class of nonlinear forecasting models. We analyzed annual time series of four environmental indices, 22 marine copepod taxa, and four ecologically and commercially important fish species during 1977 to 2009 on Georges Bank, a highly productive and intensively studied area of the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. We examined the underlying dynamic features of environmental indices and copepods, quantified the dynamic interactions and coherence with fishes, and explored the potential control mechanisms of ecosystem dynamics from a nonlinear perspective. We found: (1) the dynamics of marine copepods and environmental indices exhibiting clear nonlinearity; (2) little evidence of complex dynamics across taxonomic levels of copepods; (3) strong dynamic interactions and coherence between copepods and fishes; and (4) the bottom-up forcing of fishes and top-down control of copepods coexisting as target trophic levels vary. These findings highlight the nonlinear interactions among ecosystem components and the importance of marine zooplankton to fish populations which point to two forcing mechanisms likely interactively regulating the ecosystem dynamics on Georges Bank under a changing environment.

Hierarchical patterns of symbiotic orchid germination linked to adult proximity and environmental gradients

Treesearch

Jeffrey M. Diez

2007-01-01

The recruitment stage can be critical in determining plant population dynamics, as juveniles encounter a range of abiotic and biotic stressors in the environments where they land after dispersal, and often experience high mortality rates. Although both abiotic and biotic constraints on recruitment are often assumed to operate at multiple scales, these relationships are...

What can forest managers learn from research on fossil insects? Linking forest ecological history, biodiversity and management

Treesearch

Nicki J. Whitehouse

2006-01-01

This paper outlines the usefulness of using fossil insects, particularly Coleoptera (beetles), preserved in waterlogged palaeoenvironmental and archaeological deposits in understanding the changing nature of forest ecosystems and their associated insect population dynamics over the last 10,000 years. Research in Europe has highlighted the complex nature of early forest...

The effectiveness of Light Rail transit in achieving regional CO2 emissions targets is linked to building energy use: insights from system dynamics modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Cities worldwide face the challenges of accommodating a growing population, while reducing emissions to meet climate mitigation targets. Public transit investments are often proposed as a way to curb emissions while maintaining healthy urban economies. However, cities face a syst...

Advancing dendrochronological studies of fire in the United States

Treesearch

Grant L. Harley; Christopher H. Baisan; Peter M. Brown; Donald A. Falk; William T. Flatley; Henri D. Grissino-Mayer; Amy Hessl; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Margot W. Kaye; Charles W. Lafon; Ellis Q. Margolis; R. Stockton Maxwell; Adam T. Naito; William J. Platt; Monica T. Rother; Thomas Saladyga; Rosemary L. Sherriff; Lauren A. Stachowiak; Michael C. Stambaugh; Elaine Kennedy Sutherland; Alan H. Taylor

2018-01-01

Dendroecology is the science that dates tree rings to their exact calendar year of formation to study processes that influence forest ecology (e.g., Speer 2010 [1], Amoroso et al., 2017 [2]). Reconstruction of past fire regimes is a core application of dendroecology, linking fire history to population dynamics and climate effects on tree growth and survivorship. Since...

Developmental Health and the Wealth of Nations: Social, Biological, and Educational Dynamics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keating, Daniel P., Ed.; Hertzman, Clyde, Ed.

Asking how we can best support the health and well-being of infants and children in an era of rapid economic and technological change, this book presents findings on human development as both an individual and a population phenomenon. Topics discussed include links between socioeconomic status, achievement, and health; the impact of early…

Ocean-wide Drivers of Migration Strategies and Their Influence on Population Breeding Performance in a Declining Seabird.

PubMed

Fayet, Annette L; Freeman, Robin; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Diamond, Antony; Erikstad, Kjell E; Fifield, Dave; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G; Hansen, Erpur S; Harris, Mike P; Jessopp, Mark; Kouwenberg, Amy-Lee; Kress, Steve; Mowat, Stephen; Perrins, Chris M; Petersen, Aevar; Petersen, Ib K; Reiertsen, Tone K; Robertson, Gregory J; Shannon, Paula; Sigurðsson, Ingvar A; Shoji, Akiko; Wanless, Sarah; Guilford, Tim

2017-12-18

Which factors shape animals' migration movements across large geographical scales, how different migratory strategies emerge between populations, and how these may affect population dynamics are central questions in the field of animal migration [1] that only large-scale studies of migration patterns across a species' range can answer [2]. To address these questions, we track the migration of 270 Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, a red-listed, declining seabird, across their entire breeding range. We investigate the role of demographic, geographical, and environmental variables in driving spatial and behavioral differences on an ocean-basin scale by measuring puffins' among-colony differences in migratory routes and day-to-day behavior (estimated with individual daily activity budgets and energy expenditure). We show that competition and local winter resource availability are important drivers of migratory movements, with birds from larger colonies or with poorer local winter conditions migrating further and visiting less-productive waters; this in turn led to differences in flight activity and energy expenditure. Other behavioral differences emerge with latitude, with foraging effort and energy expenditure increasing when birds winter further north in colder waters. Importantly, these ocean-wide migration patterns can ultimately be linked with breeding performance: colony productivity is negatively associated with wintering latitude, population size, and migration distance, which demonstrates the cost of competition and migration on future breeding and the link between non-breeding and breeding periods. Our results help us to understand the drivers of animal migration and have important implications for population dynamics and the conservation of migratory species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Early Successional Microhabitats Allow the Persistence of Endangered Plants in Coastal Sand Dunes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Many species are adapted to disturbance and occur within dynamic, mosaic landscapes that contain early and late successional microhabitats. Human modification of disturbance regimes alters the availability of microhabitats and may affect the viability of species in these ecosystems. Because restoring historical disturbance regimes is typically expensive and requires action at large spatial scales, such restoration projects must be justified by linking the persistence of species with successional microhabitats. Coastal sand dune ecosystems worldwide are characterized by their endemic biodiversity and frequent disturbance. Dune-stabilizing invasive plants alter successional dynamics and may threaten species in these ecosystems. We examined the distribution and population dynamics of two federally endangered plant species, the annual Layia carnosa and the perennial Lupinus tidestromii, within a dune ecosystem in northern California, USA. We parameterized a matrix population model for L. tidestromii and examined the magnitude by which the successional stage of the habitat (early or late) influenced population dynamics. Both species had higher frequencies and L. tidestromii had higher frequency of seedlings in early successional habitats. Lupinus tidestromii plants in early successional microhabitats had higher projected rates of population growth than those associated with stabilized, late successional habitats, due primarily to higher rates of recruitment in early successional microhabitats. These results support the idea that restoration of disturbance is critical in historically dynamic landscapes. Our results suggest that large-scale restorations are necessary to allow persistence of the endemic plant species that characterize these ecosystems. PMID:25835390

Fertility decline and the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality.

PubMed

Colleran, Heidi; Jasienska, Grazyna; Nenko, Ilona; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Mace, Ruth

2015-05-07

In the course of demographic transitions (DTs), two large-scale trends become apparent: (i) the broadly positive association between wealth, status and fertility tends to reverse, and (ii) wealth inequalities increase and then temporarily decrease. We argue that these two broad patterns are linked, through a diversification of reproductive strategies that subsequently converge as populations consume more, become less self-sufficient and increasingly depend on education as a route to socio-economic status. We examine these links using data from 22 mid-transition communities in rural Poland. We identify changing relationships between fertility and multiple measures of wealth, status and inequality. Wealth and status generally have opposing effects on fertility, but these associations vary by community. Where farming remains a viable livelihood, reproductive strategies typical of both pre- and post-DT populations coexist. Fertility is lower and less variable in communities with lower wealth inequality, and macro-level patterns in inequality are generally reproduced at the community level. Our results provide a detailed insight into the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality that accompany DTs at the community level where peoples' social and economic interactions typically take place. We find no evidence to suggest that women with the most educational capital gain wealth advantages from reducing fertility, nor that higher educational capital delays the onset of childbearing in this population. Rather, these patterns reflect changing reproductive preferences during a period of profound economic and social change, with implications for our understanding of reproductive and socio-economic inequalities in transitioning populations.

Fish and fire: Post-wildfire sediment dynamics and implications for the viability of trout populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, B. P.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.; Finch, C.

2017-12-01

Episodic events in steep landscapes, such as wildfire and mass wasting, contribute large pulses of sediment to rivers and can significantly alter the quality and connectivity of fish habitat. Understanding where these sediment inputs occur, how they are transported and processed through the watershed, and their geomorphic effect on the river network is critical to predicting the impact on ecological aquatic communities. The Tushar Mountains of southern Utah experienced a severe wildfire in 2010, resulting in numerous debris flows and the extirpation of trout populations. Following many years of habitat and ecological monitoring in the field, we have developed a modeling framework that links post-wildfire debris flows, fluvial sediment routing, and population ecology in order to evaluate the impact and response of trout to wildfire. First, using the Tushar topographic and wildfire parameters, as well as stochastic precipitation generation, we predict the post-wildfire debris flow probabilities and volumes of mainstem tributaries using the Cannon et al. [2010] model. This produces episodic hillslope sediment inputs, which are delivered to a fluvial sediment, river-network routing model (modified from Czuba et al. [2017]). In this updated model, sediment transport dynamics are driven by time-varying discharge associated with the stochastic precipitation generation, include multiple grain sizes (including gravel), use mixed-size transport equations (Wilcock & Crowe [2003]), and incorporate channel slope adjustments with aggradation and degradation. Finally, with the spatially explicit adjustments in channel bed elevation and grain size, we utilize a new population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict the impact and recovery of fish populations in response to these changes in habitat. Our model provides a generalizable framework for linking physical and ecological models and for evaluating the extirpation risk of isolated fish populations throughout the Intermountain West to the increasing threat of wildfire.

Population, sexual and reproductive health, rights and sustainable development: forging a common agenda.

PubMed

Newman, Karen; Fisher, Sarah; Mayhew, Susannah; Stephenson, Judith

2014-05-01

This article suggests that sexual and reproductive health and rights activists seeking to influence the post-2015 international development paradigm must work with sustainable development advocates concerned with a range of issues, including climate change, environmental issues, and food and water security, and that a way of building bridges with these communities is to demonstrate how sexual and reproductive health and rights are relevant for these issues. An understanding of population dynamics, including urbanization and migration, as well as population growth, can help to clarify these links. This article therefore suggests that whether or not sexual and reproductive health and rights activists can overcome resistance to discussing "population", become more knowledgeable about other sustainable development issues, and work with others in those fields to advance the global sustainable development agenda are crucial questions for the coming months. The article also contends that it is possible to care about population dynamics (including ageing and problems faced by countries with a high proportion of young people) and care about human rights at the same time. It expresses concern that, if sexual and reproductive health and rights advocates do not participate in the population dynamics discourse, the field will be left free for those for whom respecting and protecting rights may be less of a priority. Copyright © 2014 Reproductive Health Matters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative recruitment dynamics of Alewife and Bloater in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Riley, Stephen C.

2014-01-01

The predictive power of recruitment models often relies on the identification and quantification of external variables, in addition to stock size. In theory, the identification of climatic, biotic, or demographic influences on reproductive success assists fisheries management by identifying factors that have a direct and reproducible influence on the population dynamics of a target species. More often, models are constructed as one-time studies of a single population whose results are not revisited when further data become available. Here, we present results from stock recruitment models for Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The factors that explain variation in Bloater recruitment were remarkably consistent across populations and with previous studies that found Bloater recruitment to be linked to population demographic patterns in Lake Michigan. Conversely, our models were poor predictors of Alewife recruitment in Lake Huron but did show some agreement with previously published models from Lake Michigan. Overall, our results suggest that external predictors of fish recruitment are difficult to discern using traditional fisheries models, and reproducing the results from previous studies may be difficult particularly at low population sizes.

Population collapse dynamics in Acropora downingi, an Arabian/Persian Gulf ecosystem-engineering coral, linked to rising temperature.

PubMed

Riegl, Bernhard; Johnston, Matthew; Purkis, Sam; Howells, Emily; Burt, John; Steiner, Sascha C C; Sheppard, Charles R C; Bauman, Andrew

2018-03-05

As in the tropical Atlantic, Acropora populations in the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf plummeted within two decades after having been ecosystem engineers on most wave-exposed reefs since the Pleistocene. Since 1996/1998 live coral cover in the Gulf declined by over 90% in many areas, primarily due to bleaching and diseases caused by rising temperatures. In the formerly dominant table-coral species A. downingi, population dynamics corresponding to disturbance regimes was quantified in three transition matrices (lower disturbance pre-1996; moderate disturbance from 1998 to 2010 and 2013 to 2017, disturbed in 1996/1998, 2010/11/12, 2017). Increased disturbance frequency and severity caused progressive reduction in coral size, cover, and population fecundity. Small size-classes were bolstered more by partial colony mortality than sexual recruitment. Some large corals had a size refuge and resisted die-back but were also lost with increasing disturbance. Matrix and biophysical larval flow models suggested one metapopulation. Southern, Arabian, populations could be connected to northern, Iranian, populations but this connectivity was lost under assumptions of pelagic larval duration at rising temperatures shortened to a third. Then, the metapopulation disintegrated into isolated populations. Connectivity required to avoid extinctions increased exponentially with disturbance frequency and correlation of disturbances across the metapopulation. Populations became unsustainable at eight disturbances in 15 years, when even highest theoretical recruitment no longer compensated mortality. This lethal disturbance frequency was 3-fold that of the moderately disturbed monitoring period and 4-fold of the preceding low-disturbance period-suggesting ongoing shortening of the disturbance-free period. Observed population collapse and environmental changes in the Gulf suggest that A. downingi is heading toward at least functional extinction mainly due to increasingly frequent temperature-induced mortality events, clearly linked to climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Flavobacteria Blooms in Four Eutrophic Lakes: Linking Population Dynamics of Freshwater Bacterioplankton to Resource Availability▿ †

PubMed Central

Eiler, Alexander; Bertilsson, Stefan

2007-01-01

Heterotrophic bacteria are major contributors to biogeochemical cycles and influence water quality. Still, the lack of representative isolates and the few quantitative surveys leave the ecological role and significance of single bacterial populations to be revealed. Here we analyzed the diversity and dynamics of freshwater Flavobacteria populations in four eutrophic temperate lakes. From each lake, clone libraries were constructed using primers specific for either the class Flavobacteria or Bacteria. Sequencing of 194 Flavobacteria clones from 8 libraries revealed a diverse freshwater Flavobacteria community and distinct differences among lakes. Abundance and seasonal dynamics of Flavobacteria were assessed by quantitative PCR with class-specific primers. In parallel, the dynamics of individual populations within the Flavobacteria community were assessed with terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis using identical primers. The contribution of Flavobacteria to the total bacterioplankton community ranged from 0.4 to almost 100% (average, 24%). Blooms where Flavobacteria represented more than 30% of the bacterioplankton were observed at different times in the four lakes. In general, high proportions of Flavobacteria appeared during episodes of high bacterial production. Phylogenetic analyses combined with Flavobacteria community fingerprints suggested dominance of two Flavobacteria lineages. Both drastic alterations in total Flavobacteria and in community composition of this class significantly correlated with bacterial production, emphasizing that resource availability is an important driver of heterotrophic bacterial succession in eutrophic lakes. PMID:17435002

Cryptic chytridiomycosis linked to climate and genetic variation in amphibian populations of the southeastern United States

PubMed Central

Hoffman, Eric A.; Tye, Matthew R.; Hether, Tyler D.; Savage, Anna E.

2017-01-01

North American amphibians have recently been impacted by two major emerging pathogens, the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and iridoviruses in the genus Ranavirus (Rv). Environmental factors and host genetics may play important roles in disease dynamics, but few studies incorporate both of these components into their analyses. Here, we investigated the role of environmental and genetic factors in driving Bd and Rv infection prevalence and severity in a biodiversity hot spot, the southeastern United States. We used quantitative PCR to characterize Bd and Rv dynamics in natural populations of three amphibian species: Notophthalmus perstriatus, Hyla squirella and Pseudacris ornata. We combined pathogen data, genetic diversity metrics generated from neutral markers, and environmental variables into general linear models to evaluate how these factors impact infectious disease dynamics. Occurrence, prevalence and intensity of Bd and Rv varied across species and populations, but only one species, Pseudacris ornata, harbored high Bd intensities in the majority of sampled populations. Genetic diversity and climate variables both predicted Bd prevalence, whereas climatic variables alone predicted infection intensity. We conclude that Bd is more abundant in the southeastern United States than previously thought and that genetic and environmental factors are both important for predicting amphibian pathogen dynamics. Incorporating both genetic and environmental information into conservation plans for amphibians is necessary for the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate the impact of emerging infectious diseases. PMID:28448517

An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison Sage-Grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Phillips, Michael L.; Doherty, Paul F.

2014-01-01

Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large-scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short-term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long-term population index data available for Gunnison sage-grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage-grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.

Exploring the dynamic links between microbial ecology and redox state of the hyporheic zone: insight from flume experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, M.; Cardenas, M. B.; Stegen, J.; Graham, E.; Cook, P. L. M.; Kessler, A. J.

2016-12-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) provides key ecosystem services such as heavy metal sequestration, nutrient uptake and consumption, and habitat for a diverse collection of ecologically and commercially important species. Microbes are responsible for many of the chemical transformations in the HZ. These microbe populations are intimately linked to redox conditions, and recent work has shown that redox conditions in the HZ can be highly dynamic. Here we investigate the dynamic coupling between surface flow conditions, hyporheic redox conditions, and the hyporheic microbiome. Our window into this world is a large experimental flume (5m x 0.7m x 0.3m), prepared and incubated in a way that is relatively common to hyporheic zone research, without a strong attempt to impose a specific microbial community structure. We use computer-controlled flow combined with sand bedforms within the flume to generate a pattern of oxic and anoxic sediment zones, from which we collected sediment and water samples. Dissolved oxygen was mapped with a large planar optode. The samples were analyzed for microbial community composition through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We compare the population structure between oxic and anoxic zones, showing that the presence of oxygen in the HZ is a strong predictor of microbial composition. Additionally, we compare both the oxic and anoxic community structure from the flume to those of samples taken from natural environments, showing both interesting similarities and differences. In the future, we plan to use time-series sampling to observe the response times of microbial communities subjected to dynamic surface channel flow and redox conditions. This work will yield greater understanding of the role that dynamic rivers play in microbe-provided ecosystem services.

Exploring the dynamic links between microbial ecology and redox state of the hyporheic zone: insight from flume experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, M.; Cardenas, M. B.; Stegen, J.; Graham, E.; Cook, P. L. M.; Kessler, A. J.

2017-12-01

The hyporheic zone (HZ) provides key ecosystem services such as heavy metal sequestration, nutrient uptake and consumption, and habitat for a diverse collection of ecologically and commercially important species. Microbes are responsible for many of the chemical transformations in the HZ. These microbe populations are intimately linked to redox conditions, and recent work has shown that redox conditions in the HZ can be highly dynamic. Here we investigate the dynamic coupling between surface flow conditions, hyporheic redox conditions, and the hyporheic microbiome. Our window into this world is a large experimental flume (5m x 0.7m x 0.3m), prepared and incubated in a way that is relatively common to hyporheic zone research, without a strong attempt to impose a specific microbial community structure. We use computer-controlled flow combined with sand bedforms within the flume to generate a pattern of oxic and anoxic sediment zones, from which we collected sediment and water samples. Dissolved oxygen was mapped with a large planar optode. The samples were analyzed for microbial community composition through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We compare the population structure between oxic and anoxic zones, showing that the presence of oxygen in the HZ is a strong predictor of microbial composition. Additionally, we compare both the oxic and anoxic community structure from the flume to those of samples taken from natural environments, showing both interesting similarities and differences. In the future, we plan to use time-series sampling to observe the response times of microbial communities subjected to dynamic surface channel flow and redox conditions. This work will yield greater understanding of the role that dynamic rivers play in microbe-provided ecosystem services.

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glaser, D.; Connolly, J.; Berghoffen, A.

The resident bald eagles of the lower Columbia River have lower productivity and higher contaminant levels than other bald eagles of the Pacific Northwest. The primary population stressors are believed to be habitat loss, human disturbance, p,p{prime}DDE, PCBs, dioxins and furans. The primary effect of habitat loss is to reduce the carrying capacity of the region for nesting sites, and the primary effects of human disturbance and contamination by organic compounds are to reduce productivity. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the effects of all of, these potential stressors on the bald eagle population dynamics. A modelmore » of the population dynamics was developed. The model structure includes a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) submodel to estimate the degree of contamination, which is linked via a toxicology submodel to a population dynamics submodel. The PBTK submodel is time-variable, incorporating species-specific bioenergetics, as well as contaminant assimilation and excretion rates for each compound of interest. Calculated body burdens and egg concentrations for each compound account for spatial and temporal variations in feeding habits and prey contaminant levels. The population submodel includes fecundity and survival information, as well as a limit to the number of breeding pairs (carrying capacity) and a population of non-breeding subadults and adults (floaters). Model simulations are performed in a Monte Carlo framework. Results include estimates of the persistence, resistance and resilience of the population: the probability of extinction, the relationship between magnitude of stress and change in population size, and the time course of recovery of a population following a reduction in stress.« less

Timelines and mechanisms of wildlife population recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esler, Daniel; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Matkin, Craig; Cushing, Daniel; Kaler, Robert; Bodkin, James; Monson, Daniel; Esslinger, George; Kloecker, Kim

2018-01-01

Research and monitoring activities over the 28 years since the T/V Exxon Valdez ran aground and spilled oil into Prince William Sound, Alaska have led to an improved understanding of how wildlife populations were damaged, as well as the mechanisms and timelines of recovery. A key finding was that for some species, such as harlequin ducks and sea otters, chronic oil spill effects persisted for at least two decades and were a larger influence on population dynamics over the long term than acute effects of the spill. These data also offer insights into population variation resulting from factors other than the oil spill. For example, while many seabirds experienced direct and indirect effects of the spill, population trajectories of some piscivorous birds, including pigeon guillemots and marbled murrelets, were linked to long-term environmental changes independent of spill effects. Another species, killer whales, suffered population declines due to acute spill effects that have not been resolved despite lack of chronic direct effects, representing a novel pathway of long-term injury. The observed variation in mechanisms and timelines of recovery is linked to species specific life history and natural history traits, and thus may be useful for predicting population recovery for other species following other spills.

Timelines and mechanisms of wildlife population recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Matkin, Craig O.; Cushing, Daniel; Kaler, Robert; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel; Esslinger, George G.; Kloecker, Kimberly A.

2018-01-01

Research and monitoring activities over the 28 years since the T/V Exxon Valdez ran aground and spilled oil into Prince William Sound, Alaska have led to an improved understanding of how wildlife populations were damaged, as well as the mechanisms and timelines of recovery. A key finding was that for some species, such as harlequin ducks and sea otters, chronic oil spill effects persisted for at least two decades and were a larger influence on population dynamics over the long term than acute effects of the spill. These data also offer insights into population variation resulting from factors other than the oil spill. For example, while many seabirds experienced direct and indirect effects of the spill, population trajectories of some piscivorous birds, including pigeon guillemots and marbled murrelets, were linked to long-term environmental changes independent of spill effects. Another species, killer whales, suffered population declines due to acute spill effects that have not been resolved despite lack of chronic direct effects, representing a novel pathway of long-term injury. The observed variation in mechanisms and timelines of recovery is linked to species specific life history and natural history traits, and thus may be useful for predicting population recovery for other species following other spills.

Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

2015-01-01

The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

The Far Right Challenge

PubMed Central

Halikiopoulou, Daphne

2018-01-01

Speed and Mannion make a good case that the rise of populism poses significant challenges for health policy. This commentary suggests that the link between populism and health policy should be further nuanced in four ways. First, a deconstruction of the term populism itself and a focus on the far right dimension of populist politics; second, a focus on the supply side and more specifically the question of nationalism and the ‘national preference’; third, the dynamics of party competition during economic crisis; and fourth the question of policy, and more specifically the extent to which certain labour market policies are able to mediate demand for the far right. PMID:29524946

Urbanization, Trace Metal Pollution, and Malaria Prevalence in the House Sparrow

PubMed Central

Bichet, Coraline; Scheifler, Renaud; Cœurdassier, Michaël; Julliard, Romain; Sorci, Gabriele; Loiseau, Claire

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic pollution poses a threat for the environment and wildlife. Trace metals (TMs) are known to have negative effects on haematological status, oxidative balance, and reproductive success in birds. These pollutants particularly increase in concentration in industrialized, urbanized and intensive agricultural areas. Pollutants can also interfere with the normal functioning of the immune system and, as such, alter the dynamics of host-parasite interactions. Nevertheless, the impact of pollution on infectious diseases has been largely neglected in natural populations of vertebrates. Here, we used a large spatial scale monitoring of 16 house sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations to identify environmental variables likely to explain variation in TMs (lead, cadmium, zinc) concentrations in the feathers. In five of these populations, we also studied the potential link between TMs, prevalence of infection with one species of avian malaria, Plasmodium relictum, and body condition. Our results show that lead concentration is associated with heavily urbanized habitats and that areas with large woodland coverage have higher cadmium and zinc feather concentrations. Our results suggest that lead concentration in the feathers positively correlates with P. relictum prevalence, and that a complex relationship links TM concentrations, infection status, and body condition. This is one of the first studies showing that environmental pollutants are associated with prevalence of an infectious disease in wildlife. The mechanisms underlying this effect are still unknown even though it is tempting to suggest that lead could interfere with the normal functioning of the immune system, as shown in other species. We suggest that more effort should be devoted to elucidate the link between pollution and the dynamics of infectious diseases. PMID:23342022

Hamilton's missing link.

PubMed

van Veelen, Matthijs

2007-06-07

Hamilton's famous rule was presented in 1964 in a paper called "The genetical theory of social behaviour (I and II)", Journal of Theoretical Biology 7, 1-16, 17-32. The paper contains a mathematical genetical model from which the rule supposedly follows, but it does not provide a link between the paper's central result, which states that selection dynamics take the population to a state where mean inclusive fitness is maximized, and the rule, which states that selection will lead to maximization of individual inclusive fitness. This note provides a condition under which Hamilton's rule does follow from his central result.

On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model.

PubMed

Aydogmus, Ozgur

2016-09-01

We considered a chain-binomial epidemic model not conferring immunity after infection. Mean field dynamics of the model has been analyzed and conditions for the existence of a stable endemic equilibrium are determined. The behavior of the chain-binomial process is probabilistically linked to the mean field equation. As a result of this link, we were able to show that the mean extinction time of the epidemic increases at least exponentially as the population size grows. We also present simulation results for the process to validate our analytical findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

PubMed

Thomson, Diane M

2016-10-01

Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Bechstein's bats maintain individual social links despite a complete reorganisation of their colony structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baigger, A.; Perony, N.; Reuter, M.; Leinert, V.; Melber, M.; Grünberger, S.; Fleischmann, D.; Kerth, G.

2013-09-01

Several social mammals, including elephants and some primates, whales and bats, live in multilevel societies that form temporary subgroups. Despite these fission-fusion dynamics, group members often maintain long-term bonds. However, it is unclear whether such individual links and the resulting stable social subunits continue to exist after a complete reorganisation of a society, e.g. following a population crash. Here, we employed a weighted network analysis on 7,109 individual roosting records collected over 4 years in a wild Bechstein's bat colony. We show that, in response to a strong population decline, the colony's two stable social subunits fused into a non-modular social network. Nevertheless, in the first year after the crash, long-term bonds were still detectable, suggesting that the bats remembered previous individual relationships. Our findings are important for understanding the flexibility of animal societies in the face of dramatic changes and for the conservation of social mammals with declining populations.

Infection Spread and Virus Release in Vitro in Cell Populations as a System with Percolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa, Juan G. Diaz

The comprehension of the innate immune system of cell populations is not only of interest to understand systems in vivo but also in vitro, for example, in the control of the release of viral particles for the production of vaccines. In this report I introduce a model, based on dynamical networks, that simulates the cell signaling responsible for this innate immune response and its effect on the infection spread and virus production. The central motivation is to represent a cell population that is constantly mixed in a bio-reactor where there is a cell-to-cell signaling of cytokines (which are proteins responsible for the activation of the antiviral response inside the cell). Such signaling allows the definition of clusters of linked immune cells. Additionally, depending on the density of links, it is possible to identify critical threshold parameters associated to a percolation phase transition. I show that the control of this antiviral response is equivalent to a percolation process.

Bechstein's bats maintain individual social links despite a complete reorganisation of their colony structure.

PubMed

Baigger, A; Perony, N; Reuter, M; Leinert, V; Melber, M; Grünberger, S; Fleischmann, D; Kerth, G

2013-09-01

Several social mammals, including elephants and some primates, whales and bats, live in multilevel societies that form temporary subgroups. Despite these fission-fusion dynamics, group members often maintain long-term bonds. However, it is unclear whether such individual links and the resulting stable social subunits continue to exist after a complete reorganisation of a society, e.g. following a population crash. Here, we employed a weighted network analysis on 7,109 individual roosting records collected over 4 years in a wild Bechstein's bat colony. We show that, in response to a strong population decline, the colony's two stable social subunits fused into a non-modular social network. Nevertheless, in the first year after the crash, long-term bonds were still detectable, suggesting that the bats remembered previous individual relationships. Our findings are important for understanding the flexibility of animal societies in the face of dramatic changes and for the conservation of social mammals with declining populations.

Sex differences in a shoaling-boldness behavioral syndrome, but no link with aggression.

PubMed

Way, Gregory P; Kiesel, Alexis L; Ruhl, Nathan; Snekser, Jennifer L; McRobert, Scott P

2015-04-01

A behavioral syndrome is observed in a population when specific behaviors overlap at the individual level in different contexts. Here, we explore boldness and aggression personality spectra, the repeatability of shoaling, and possible associated correlations between the behaviors in a population of lab-reared zebrafish (Danio rerio). Our findings describe a sex-specific boldness-shoaling behavioral syndrome, as a link between boldness and shoaling behaviors is detected. The results indicate that bold males are likely to have a stronger shoaling propensity than shy males for unfamiliar conspecifics. Conversely, bold females are more likely to shoal than shy females, but only when presented with heterospecific individuals. Additionally, aggression does not correlate with boldness or shoaling propensity for either sex. A positive relationship between boldness and shoaling that differs by sex is contrary to most of the present literature, but could help to explain population dynamics and may also have evolutionary implications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution limits of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis: A case study in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Blake R. Hossack; Erin Muths; Chauncey W. Anderson; Julie A. Kirshtein; Paul Stephen Corn

2009-01-01

Knowledge of the environmental constraints on a pathogen is critical to predicting its dynamics and effects on populations. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), an aquatic fungus that has been linked with widespread amphibian declines, is ubiquitous in the Rocky Mountains. As part of assessing the distribution limits of Bd in our study area, we sampled the water column...

Student Engagement, Peer Social Capital, and School Dropout among Mexican American and Non-Latino White Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ream, Robert K.; Rumberger, Russell W.

2008-01-01

Policy makers are especially concerned about persistently high dropout rates among U.S. Latinos, the largest minority population in the United States. This study used a national longitudinal database to show that the behavioral and social aspects of schooling are dynamically linked in the process of school completion and dropout among Mexican…

Markers linked to wheat stem rust resistance gene Sr11 effective to Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici race TKTTF

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wheat stem rust caused by Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici can cause severe yield losses on susceptible wheat varieties and cultivars. Although stem rust can be controlled by the use of genetic resistance, population dynamics of P. graminis f. sp. tritici can frequently lead to defeat of wheat stem ...

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity.

PubMed

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity.

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity. PMID:28060865

Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

PubMed

Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

2014-11-11

Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

High-resolution simulation of link-level vehicle emissions and concentrations for air pollutants in a traffic-populated eastern Asian city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Huang, Ruikun; Wang, Jiandong; Yan, Han; Zheng, Yali; Hao, Jiming

2016-08-01

Vehicle emissions containing air pollutants created substantial environmental impacts on air quality for many traffic-populated cities in eastern Asia. A high-resolution emission inventory is a useful tool compared with traditional tools (e.g. registration data-based approach) to accurately evaluate real-world traffic dynamics and their environmental burden. In this study, Macau, one of the most populated cities in the world, is selected to demonstrate a high-resolution simulation of vehicular emissions and their contribution to air pollutant concentrations by coupling multimodels. First, traffic volumes by vehicle category on 47 typical roads were investigated during weekdays in 2010 and further applied in a networking demand simulation with the TransCAD model to establish hourly profiles of link-level vehicle counts. Local vehicle driving speed and vehicle age distribution data were also collected in Macau. Second, based on a localized vehicle emission model (e.g. the emission factor model for the Beijing vehicle fleet - Macau, EMBEV-Macau), this study established a link-based vehicle emission inventory in Macau with high resolution meshed in a temporal and spatial framework. Furthermore, we employed the AERMOD (AMS/EPA Regulatory Model) model to map concentrations of CO and primary PM2.5 contributed by local vehicle emissions during weekdays in November 2010. This study has discerned the strong impact of traffic flow dynamics on the temporal and spatial patterns of vehicle emissions, such as a geographic discrepancy of spatial allocation up to 26 % between THC and PM2.5 emissions owing to spatially heterogeneous vehicle-use intensity between motorcycles and diesel fleets. We also identified that the estimated CO2 emissions from gasoline vehicles agreed well with the statistical fuel consumption in Macau. Therefore, this paper provides a case study and a solid framework for developing high-resolution environment assessment tools for other vehicle-populated cities in eastern Asia.

Individual heterogeneity generating explosive system network dynamics.

PubMed

Manrique, Pedro D; Johnson, Neil F

2018-03-01

Individual heterogeneity is a key characteristic of many real-world systems, from organisms to humans. However, its role in determining the system's collective dynamics is not well understood. Here we study how individual heterogeneity impacts the system network dynamics by comparing linking mechanisms that favor similar or dissimilar individuals. We find that this heterogeneity-based evolution drives an unconventional form of explosive network behavior, and it dictates how a polarized population moves toward consensus. Our model shows good agreement with data from both biological and social science domains. We conclude that individual heterogeneity likely plays a key role in the collective development of real-world networks and communities, and it cannot be ignored.

Individual heterogeneity generating explosive system network dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique, Pedro D.; Johnson, Neil F.

2018-03-01

Individual heterogeneity is a key characteristic of many real-world systems, from organisms to humans. However, its role in determining the system's collective dynamics is not well understood. Here we study how individual heterogeneity impacts the system network dynamics by comparing linking mechanisms that favor similar or dissimilar individuals. We find that this heterogeneity-based evolution drives an unconventional form of explosive network behavior, and it dictates how a polarized population moves toward consensus. Our model shows good agreement with data from both biological and social science domains. We conclude that individual heterogeneity likely plays a key role in the collective development of real-world networks and communities, and it cannot be ignored.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics.

PubMed

Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Bjørnstad, O N; Grenfell, B T; Rohani, P

2010-05-06

Seasonal changes in the environment are known to be important drivers of population dynamics, giving rise to sustained population cycles. However, it is often difficult to measure the strength and shape of seasonal forces affecting populations. In recent years, statistical time-series methods have been applied to the incidence records of childhood infectious diseases in an attempt to estimate seasonal variation in transmission rates, as driven by the pattern of school terms. In turn, school-term forcing was used to show how susceptible influx rates affect the interepidemic period. In this paper, we document the response of measles dynamics to distinct shifts in the parameter regime using previously unexplored records of measles mortality from the early decades of the twentieth century. We describe temporal patterns of measles epidemics using spectral analysis techniques, and point out a marked decrease in birth rates over time. Changes in host demography alone do not, however, suffice to explain epidemiological transitions. By fitting the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered model to measles mortality data, we obtain estimates of seasonal transmission in different eras, and find that seasonality increased over time. This analysis supports theoretical work linking complex population dynamics and the balance between stochastic and deterministic forces as determined by the strength of seasonality.

Wild-captive interactions and economics drive dynamics of Asian elephants in Laos.

PubMed

Maurer, Gilles; Rashford, Benjamin S; Chanthavong, Vatsana; Mulot, Baptiste; Gimenez, Olivier

2017-11-01

The interactions between wild and captive populations of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) persist in most countries of the species distribution, notably through the reproduction between captive females and wild males. However, these complex interactions have been poorly studied, despite their relevance for conservation of this endangered species. Laos has a centuries-long tradition of raising Asian elephants. Besides being cultural icons, captive elephants are inextricably linked to economics through their work in forestry. Using an ecological-economic model, we investigated the effect of socio-economic strategies on fecundity of the Lao population whose dynamics is shaped by human practices. We demonstrated that fecundity is impacted by: i) the dynamics of the wild elephant pool through mating of captive females by wild males, and ii) the financial incentive of elephant owners to breed their animals. As a result, we expect fecundity to rise in response to increases in elephant prices. The captive population will tend towards an asymptotic limit determined by the wild pool growth rate. However, the population will tend to extinction if exports continue. Our ecological-economic approach, by accounting for economic incentives, allows us to predict new equilibria that can serve as a baseline for designing sustainable management strategies for the species.

Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population dynamics and bamboo (subfamily Bambusoideae) life history: a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Ackleh, A.S.; Leonard, B.P.; Wang, Hongfang

1999-01-01

The giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca, is a highly specialized Ursid whose diet consists almost entirely of various species of bamboo. Bamboo (Bambusoideae) is a grass subfamily whose species often exhibit a synchronous semelparity. Synchronous semelparity can create local drops in carrying capacity for the panda. We modeled the interaction of pandas and their bamboo food resources with an age structured panda population model linked to a natural history model of bamboo biomass dynamics based on literature values of bamboo biomass, and giant panda life history dynamics. This paper reports the results of our examination of the interaction between pandas and their bamboo food resource and its implications for panda conservation. In the model all panda populations were well below the carrying capacity of the habitat. The giant panda populations growth was most sensitive to changes in birth rates and removal of reproductive aged individuals. Periodic starvation that has been documented in conjunction with bamboo die-offs is probably related to the inability to move to other areas within the region where bamboo is still available. Based on the results of this model, giant panda conservation should concentrate on keeping breeding individuals in the wild, keep corridors to different bamboo species open to pandas, and to concentrate research on bamboo life history.

Large fluctuations in anti-coordination games on scale-free graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabsovich, Daniel; Mobilia, Mauro; Assaf, Michael

2017-05-01

We study the influence of the complex topology of scale-free graphs on the dynamics of anti-coordination games (e.g. snowdrift games). These reference models are characterized by the coexistence (evolutionary stable mixed strategy) of two competing species, say ‘cooperators’ and ‘defectors’, and, in finite systems, by metastability and large-fluctuation-driven fixation. In this work, we use extensive computer simulations and an effective diffusion approximation (in the weak selection limit) to determine under which circumstances, depending on the individual-based update rules, the topology drastically affects the long-time behavior of anti-coordination games. In particular, we compute the variance of the number of cooperators in the metastable state and the mean fixation time when the dynamics is implemented according to the voter model (death-first/birth-second process) and the link dynamics (birth/death or death/birth at random). For the voter update rule, we show that the scale-free topology effectively renormalizes the population size and as a result the statistics of observables depend on the network’s degree distribution. In contrast, such a renormalization does not occur with the link dynamics update rule and we recover the same behavior as on complete graphs.

Disease dynamics of honeybees with Varroa destructor as parasite and virus vector.

PubMed

Kang, Yun; Blanco, Krystal; Davis, Talia; Wang, Ying; DeGrandi-Hoffman, Gloria

2016-05-01

The worldwide decline in honeybee colonies during the past 50 years has often been linked to the spread of the parasitic mite Varroa destructor and its interaction with certain honeybee viruses carried by Varroa mites. In this paper, we propose a honeybee-mite-virus model that incorporates (1) parasitic interactions between honeybees and the Varroa mites; (2) five virus transmission terms between honeybees and mites at different stages of Varroa mites: from honeybees to honeybees, from adult honeybees to the phoretic mites, from brood to the reproductive mites, from the reproductive mites to brood, and from adult honeybees to the phoretic mites; and (3) Allee effects in the honeybee population generated by its internal organization such as division of labor. We provide completed local and global analysis for the full system and its subsystems. Our analytical and numerical results allow us have a better understanding of the synergistic effects of parasitism and virus infections on honeybee population dynamics and its persistence. Interesting findings from our work include: (a) due to Allee effects experienced by the honeybee population, initial conditions are essential for the survival of the colony. (b) Low adult honeybees to brood ratios have destabilizing effects on the system which generate fluctuating dynamics that lead to a catastrophic event where both honeybees and mites suddenly become extinct. This catastrophic event could be potentially linked to Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) of honeybee colonies. (c) Virus infections may have stabilizing effects on the system, and parasitic mites could make disease more persistent. Our model illustrates how the synergy between the parasitic mites and virus infections consequently generates rich dynamics including multiple attractors where all species can coexist or go extinct depending on initial conditions. Our findings may provide important insights on honeybee viruses and parasites and how to best control them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Building dynamic population graph for accurate correspondence detection.

PubMed

Du, Shaoyi; Guo, Yanrong; Sanroma, Gerard; Ni, Dong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

2015-12-01

In medical imaging studies, there is an increasing trend for discovering the intrinsic anatomical difference across individual subjects in a dataset, such as hand images for skeletal bone age estimation. Pair-wise matching is often used to detect correspondences between each individual subject and a pre-selected model image with manually-placed landmarks. However, the large anatomical variability across individual subjects can easily compromise such pair-wise matching step. In this paper, we present a new framework to simultaneously detect correspondences among a population of individual subjects, by propagating all manually-placed landmarks from a small set of model images through a dynamically constructed image graph. Specifically, we first establish graph links between models and individual subjects according to pair-wise shape similarity (called as forward step). Next, we detect correspondences for the individual subjects with direct links to any of model images, which is achieved by a new multi-model correspondence detection approach based on our recently-published sparse point matching method. To correct those inaccurate correspondences, we further apply an error detection mechanism to automatically detect wrong correspondences and then update the image graph accordingly (called as backward step). After that, all subject images with detected correspondences are included into the set of model images, and the above two steps of graph expansion and error correction are repeated until accurate correspondences for all subject images are established. Evaluations on real hand X-ray images demonstrate that our proposed method using a dynamic graph construction approach can achieve much higher accuracy and robustness, when compared with the state-of-the-art pair-wise correspondence detection methods as well as a similar method but using static population graph. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal genetic stability of Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) populations.

PubMed

Gloria-Soria, A; Kellner, D A; Brown, J E; Gonzalez-Acosta, C; Kamgang, B; Lutwama, J; Powell, J R

2016-06-01

The mosquito Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) is the primary vector of viruses that cause yellow fever, dengue and Chikungunya fever. In the absence of effective vaccines, the reduction of these diseases relies on vector control strategies. The success of these strategies is tightly linked to the population dynamics of target populations. In the present study, 14 collections from St. aegypti populations separated by periods of 1-13 years were analysed to determine their temporal genetic stability. Although temporal structure is discernible in most populations, the degree of temporal differentiation is dependent on the population and does not obscure the geographic structure of the various populations. The results suggest that performing detailed studies in the years prior to and after population reduction- or modification-based control interventions at each target field site may be useful in assessing the probability of success. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

From Rivers to Oceans and Back: Linking Models to Encompass the Full Salmon Life Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danner, E.; Hendrix, N.; Martin, B.; Lindley, S. T.

2016-02-01

Pacific salmon are a promising study subject for investigating the linkages between freshwater and coastal ocean ecosystems. Salmon use a wide range of habitats throughout their life cycle as they move with water from mountain streams, mainstem rivers, estuaries, bays, and coastal oceans, with adult fish swimming back through the same migration route they took as juveniles. Conditions in one habitat can have growth and survival consequences that manifest in the following habitat, so is key that full life cycle models are used to further our understanding salmon population dynamics. Given the wide range of habitats and potential stressors, this approach requires the coordination of a multidisciplinary suite of physical and biological models, including climate, hydrologic, hydraulic, food web, circulation, bioenergetic, and ecosystem models. Here we present current approaches to linking physical and biological models that capture the foundational drivers for salmon in complex and dynamic systems.

Exposing the structure of an Arctic food web.

PubMed

Wirta, Helena K; Vesterinen, Eero J; Hambäck, Peter A; Weingartner, Elisabeth; Rasmussen, Claus; Reneerkens, Jeroen; Schmidt, Niels M; Gilg, Olivier; Roslin, Tomas

2015-09-01

How food webs are structured has major implications for their stability and dynamics. While poorly studied to date, arctic food webs are commonly assumed to be simple in structure, with few links per species. If this is the case, then different parts of the web may be weakly connected to each other, with populations and species united by only a low number of links. We provide the first highly resolved description of trophic link structure for a large part of a high-arctic food web. For this purpose, we apply a combination of recent techniques to describing the links between three predator guilds (insectivorous birds, spiders, and lepidopteran parasitoids) and their two dominant prey orders (Diptera and Lepidoptera). The resultant web shows a dense link structure and no compartmentalization or modularity across the three predator guilds. Thus, both individual predators and predator guilds tap heavily into the prey community of each other, offering versatile scope for indirect interactions across different parts of the web. The current description of a first but single arctic web may serve as a benchmark toward which to gauge future webs resolved by similar techniques. Targeting an unusual breadth of predator guilds, and relying on techniques with a high resolution, it suggests that species in this web are closely connected. Thus, our findings call for similar explorations of link structure across multiple guilds in both arctic and other webs. From an applied perspective, our description of an arctic web suggests new avenues for understanding how arctic food webs are built and function and of how they respond to current climate change. It suggests that to comprehend the community-level consequences of rapid arctic warming, we should turn from analyses of populations, population pairs, and isolated predator-prey interactions to considering the full set of interacting species.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

PubMed

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Diet shifts and population dynamics of estuarine foraminifera during ecosystem recovery after experimentally induced hypoxia crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouwer, G. M.; Duijnstee, I. A. P.; Hazeleger, J. H.; Rossi, F.; Lourens, L. J.; Middelburg, J. J.; Wolthers, M.

2016-03-01

This study shows foraminiferal dynamics after experimentally induced hypoxia within the wider context of ecosystem recovery. 13C-labeled bicarbonate and glucose were added to the sediments to examine foraminiferal diet shifts during ecosystem recovery and test-size measurements were used to deduce population dynamics. Hypoxia-treated and undisturbed patches were compared to distinguish natural (seasonal) fluctuations from hypoxia-induced responses. The effect of timing of disturbance and duration of recovery were investigated. The foraminiferal diets and population dynamics showed higher fluctuations in the recovering patches compared to the controls. The foraminiferal diet and population structure of Haynesina germanica and Ammonia beccarii responded differentially and generally inversely to progressive stages of ecosystem recovery. Tracer inferred diet estimates in April and June and the two distinctly visible cohorts in the test-size distribution, discussed to reflect reproduction in June, strongly suggest that the ample availability of diatoms during the first month of ecosystem recovery after the winter hypoxia was likely profitable to A. beccarii. Enhanced reproduction itself was strongly linked to the subsequent dietary shift to bacteria. The distribution of the test dimensions of H. germanica indicated that this species had less fluctuation in population structure during ecosystem recovery but possibly reproduced in response to the induced winter hypoxia. Bacteria seemed to consistently contribute more to the diet of H. germanica than diatoms. For the diet and test-size distribution of both species, the timing of disturbance seemed to have a higher impact than the duration of the subsequent recovery period.

Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations.

PubMed

Hock, Karlo; Wolff, Nicholas H; Beeden, Roger; Hoey, Jessica; Condie, Scott A; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Possingham, Hugh P; Mumby, Peter J

2016-08-01

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long-term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species' potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18-fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Fertility decline and the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality

PubMed Central

Colleran, Heidi; Jasienska, Grazyna; Nenko, Ilona; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Mace, Ruth

2015-01-01

In the course of demographic transitions (DTs), two large-scale trends become apparent: (i) the broadly positive association between wealth, status and fertility tends to reverse, and (ii) wealth inequalities increase and then temporarily decrease. We argue that these two broad patterns are linked, through a diversification of reproductive strategies that subsequently converge as populations consume more, become less self-sufficient and increasingly depend on education as a route to socio-economic status. We examine these links using data from 22 mid-transition communities in rural Poland. We identify changing relationships between fertility and multiple measures of wealth, status and inequality. Wealth and status generally have opposing effects on fertility, but these associations vary by community. Where farming remains a viable livelihood, reproductive strategies typical of both pre- and post-DT populations coexist. Fertility is lower and less variable in communities with lower wealth inequality, and macro-level patterns in inequality are generally reproduced at the community level. Our results provide a detailed insight into the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality that accompany DTs at the community level where peoples' social and economic interactions typically take place. We find no evidence to suggest that women with the most educational capital gain wealth advantages from reducing fertility, nor that higher educational capital delays the onset of childbearing in this population. Rather, these patterns reflect changing reproductive preferences during a period of profound economic and social change, with implications for our understanding of reproductive and socio-economic inequalities in transitioning populations. PMID:25833859

Oceanographic mechanisms and penguin population increases during the Little Ice Age in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lianjiao; Sun, Liguang; Emslie, Steven D.; Xie, Zhouqing; Huang, Tao; Gao, Yuesong; Yang, Wenqing; Chu, Zhuding; Wang, Yuhong

2018-01-01

The Adélie penguin is a well-known indicator for climate and environmental changes. Exploring how large-scale climate variability affects penguin ecology in the past is essential for understanding the responses of Southern Ocean ecosystems to future global change. Using ornithogenic sediments at Cape Bird, Ross Island, Antarctica, we inferred relative population changes of Adélie penguins in the southern Ross Sea over the past 500 yr, and observed an increase in penguin populations during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1500-1850 AD). We used cadmium content in ancient penguin guano as a proxy of ocean upwelling and identified a close linkage between penguin dynamics and atmospheric circulation and oceanic conditions. During the cold period of ∼1600-1825 AD, a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) led to stronger winds, intensified ocean upwelling, enlarged Ross Sea and McMurdo Sound polynyas, and thus higher food abundance and penguin populations. We propose a mechanism linking Antarctic marine ecology and atmospheric/oceanic dynamics which can help explain and predict responses of Antarctic high latitudes ecosystems to climate change.

Evolution on neutral networks accelerates the ticking rate of the molecular clock.

PubMed

Manrubia, Susanna; Cuesta, José A

2015-01-06

Large sets of genotypes give rise to the same phenotype, because phenotypic expression is highly redundant. Accordingly, a population can accept mutations without altering its phenotype, as long as the genotype mutates into another one on the same set. By linking every pair of genotypes that are mutually accessible through mutation, genotypes organize themselves into neutral networks (NNs). These networks are known to be heterogeneous and assortative, and these properties affect the evolutionary dynamics of the population. By studying the dynamics of populations on NNs with arbitrary topology, we analyse the effect of assortativity, of NN (phenotype) fitness and of network size. We find that the probability that the population leaves the network is smaller the longer the time spent on it. This progressive 'phenotypic entrapment' entails a systematic increase in the overdispersion of the process with time and an acceleration in the fixation rate of neutral mutations. We also quantify the variation of these effects with the size of the phenotype and with its fitness relative to that of neighbouring alternatives. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Evolution on neutral networks accelerates the ticking rate of the molecular clock

PubMed Central

Manrubia, Susanna; Cuesta, José A.

2015-01-01

Large sets of genotypes give rise to the same phenotype, because phenotypic expression is highly redundant. Accordingly, a population can accept mutations without altering its phenotype, as long as the genotype mutates into another one on the same set. By linking every pair of genotypes that are mutually accessible through mutation, genotypes organize themselves into neutral networks (NNs). These networks are known to be heterogeneous and assortative, and these properties affect the evolutionary dynamics of the population. By studying the dynamics of populations on NNs with arbitrary topology, we analyse the effect of assortativity, of NN (phenotype) fitness and of network size. We find that the probability that the population leaves the network is smaller the longer the time spent on it. This progressive ‘phenotypic entrapment’ entails a systematic increase in the overdispersion of the process with time and an acceleration in the fixation rate of neutral mutations. We also quantify the variation of these effects with the size of the phenotype and with its fitness relative to that of neighbouring alternatives. PMID:25392402

Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over several sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lebreton, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Pradel, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.

2003-01-01

Dispersal in animal populations is intimately linked with accession to reproduction, i.e. recruitment, and population regulation. Dispersal processes are thus a key component of population dynamics to the same extent as reproduction or mortality processes. Despite the growing interest in spatial aspects of population dynamics, the methodology for estimating dispersal, in particular in relation with recruitment, is limited. In many animal populations, in particular vertebrates, the impossibility of following individuals over space and time in an exhaustive way leads to the need to frame the estimation of dispersal in the context of capture-recapture methodology. We present here a class of age-dependent multistate capture-recapture models for the simultaneous estimation of natal dispersal, breeding dispersal, and age-dependent recruitment. These models are suitable for populations in which individuals are marked at birth and then recaptured over several sites. Under simple constraints, they can be used in populations where non-breeders are not observed, as is often the case with colonial waterbirds monitored on their breeding grounds. Biological questions can be addressed by comparing models differing in structure, according to the generalized linear model philosophy broadly used in capture-recapture methodology. We illustrate the potential of this approach by an analysis of recruitment and dispersal in the roseate tern Sterna dougallii.

Individual heterogeneity in life histories and eco-evolutionary dynamics

PubMed Central

Vindenes, Yngvild; Langangen, Øystein

2015-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in life history shapes eco-evolutionary processes, and unobserved heterogeneity can affect demographic outputs characterising life history and population dynamical properties. Demographic frameworks like matrix models or integral projection models represent powerful approaches to disentangle mechanisms linking individual life histories and population-level processes. Recent developments have provided important steps towards their application to study eco-evolutionary dynamics, but so far individual heterogeneity has largely been ignored. Here, we present a general demographic framework that incorporates individual heterogeneity in a flexible way, by separating static and dynamic traits (discrete or continuous). First, we apply the framework to derive the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity for a range of widely used demographic outputs. A general conclusion is that besides the long-term growth rate lambda, all parameters can be affected. Second, we discuss how the framework can help advance current demographic models of eco-evolutionary dynamics, by incorporating individual heterogeneity. For both applications numerical examples are provided, including an empirical example for pike. For instance, we demonstrate that predicted demographic responses to climate warming can be reversed by increased heritability. We discuss how applications of this demographic framework incorporating individual heterogeneity can help answer key biological questions that require a detailed understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics. PMID:25807980

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

PubMed Central

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-01-01

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges. PMID:19025676

Computing by robust transience: How the fronto-parietal network performs sequential category-based decisions

PubMed Central

Chaisangmongkon, Warasinee; Swaminathan, Sruthi K.; Freedman, David J.; Wang, Xiao-Jing

2017-01-01

Summary Decision making involves dynamic interplay between internal judgements and external perception, which has been investigated in delayed match-to-category (DMC) experiments. Our analysis of neural recordings shows that, during DMC tasks, LIP and PFC neurons demonstrate mixed, time-varying, and heterogeneous selectivity, but previous theoretical work has not established the link between these neural characteristics and population-level computations. We trained a recurrent network model to perform DMC tasks and found that the model can remarkably reproduce key features of neuronal selectivity at the single-neuron and population levels. Analysis of the trained networks elucidates that robust transient trajectories of the neural population are the key driver of sequential categorical decisions. The directions of trajectories are governed by network self-organized connectivity, defining a ‘neural landscape’, consisting of a task-tailored arrangement of slow states and dynamical tunnels. With this model, we can identify functionally-relevant circuit motifs and generalize the framework to solve other categorization tasks. PMID:28334612

No Place Like Home: Place and Community Identity among North Country Youth. New England Issue Brief No. 24

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Genevieve R.; Tucker, Corinna Jenkins

2011-01-01

This brief explores the link between rural youths' identification with their community, their self-esteem, and their future plans. The panel study of New Hampshire's Coos County youth offers a snapshot into the dynamics of a population that is developing its identity in a region that is undergoing an identity transformation of its own. Place…

Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

2016-04-01

Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis.

Maximisation Principles in Foodwebs and Daisyworlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackland, G. J.; Gallagher, I. D.

2005-12-01

Using computer simulation we investigate whether the steady-state time averaged state of a self-organising system with many internal degrees of freedom can be described by optimising a single quantity. Our open systems follow evolutionary dynamics hence the conservation laws and energy-based state probabilities which underpin Hamiltonian dynamics do not apply. We find that these dynamics observe a novel optimality principle, that the system self-organises to a state which maximises the sustainable amount of replicating objects. We have studied a number of mathematical models of evolving replicating systems: daisyworlds[1], logistic map and generalized Lotka Volterra foodwebs[2]. Each is characterised by being (1) "open" - resources flow into and out of the system. (2) "self-regulating" - the inflow/outflow of resources is not fixed externally. (3) "evolving" - the increase in population at the next timestep depends on the population at the current timestep. These properties violate the assumptions made in deriving optimality principles such as free energy minimisation, maximum/mimimum entropy production etc., so it is unsurprising that they are not observed. The absence of a Hamiltonian for ecosystems is particularly problematic for coupled models of life and the environment - moreover there is ambiguity in defining an entropy for an ecosystem. By considering large and small species within the 2D daisyworld model we show that the appropriate measure comes from the interaction with the rest of the system, not the information theoretic entropy of the daisy field. We introduce evolution within the classic Lotka-Volterra model for interaction between species in an ecosystem. Generalisation to many species is straightforward, but the resulting network is usually unstable. By restricting the number of links between species it is possible to form a stable network by evolution - allowing some species to go extinct. This method can be used to generate arbitrarily large network, from which a treelike structure of trophic levels emerges, but typically the number of connection is much smaller than in real ecosystems. Here, we show that applying evolution to the strength of the links, rather than simply their existence, stabilises the entire network and generates a power-law distribution of link strengths. The network dynamics are chaotic, but as a whole tend towards maximising the use of resources. If the dynamics are linearised to remove the chaos, the scale-free link strengths also disappear. [1] Maximisation Principles and Daisyworld G.J. Ackland J.Theo.Bio. 227, 121, (2004) [2] Stabilization of large generalized Lotka-Volterra foodwebs by evolutionary feedback G.J. Ackland and I.D. Gallagher Phys Rev Lett 93 158701 2004

Linking killer whale survival and prey abundance: food limitation in the oceans' apex predator?

PubMed Central

Ford, John K. B.; Ellis, Graeme M.; Olesiuk, Peter F.; Balcomb, Kenneth C.

2010-01-01

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) are large predators that occupy the top trophic position in the world's oceans and as such may have important roles in marine ecosystem dynamics. Although the possible top-down effects of killer whale predation on populations of their prey have received much recent attention, little is known of how the abundance of these predators may be limited by bottom-up processes. Here we show, using 25 years of demographic data from two populations of fish-eating killer whales in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, that population trends are driven largely by changes in survival, and that survival rates are strongly correlated with the availability of their principal prey species, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our results suggest that, although these killer whales may consume a variety of fish species, they are highly specialized and dependent on this single salmonid species to an extent that it is a limiting factor in their population dynamics. Other ecologically specialized killer whale populations may be similarly constrained to a narrow range of prey species by culturally inherited foraging strategies, and thus are limited in their ability to adapt rapidly to changing prey availability. PMID:19755531

Linking killer whale survival and prey abundance: food limitation in the oceans' apex predator?

PubMed

Ford, John K B; Ellis, Graeme M; Olesiuk, Peter F; Balcomb, Kenneth C

2010-02-23

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) are large predators that occupy the top trophic position in the world's oceans and as such may have important roles in marine ecosystem dynamics. Although the possible top-down effects of killer whale predation on populations of their prey have received much recent attention, little is known of how the abundance of these predators may be limited by bottom-up processes. Here we show, using 25 years of demographic data from two populations of fish-eating killer whales in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, that population trends are driven largely by changes in survival, and that survival rates are strongly correlated with the availability of their principal prey species, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Our results suggest that, although these killer whales may consume a variety of fish species, they are highly specialized and dependent on this single salmonid species to an extent that it is a limiting factor in their population dynamics. Other ecologically specialized killer whale populations may be similarly constrained to a narrow range of prey species by culturally inherited foraging strategies, and thus are limited in their ability to adapt rapidly to changing prey availability.

Long-term trends of bloater (Coregonus hoyi) recruitment in Lake Michigan: evidence for the effect of sex ratio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Croley, Thomas E.

2006-01-01

Long-term population trends are generally explained by factors extrinsic (e.g., climate, predation) rather than intrinsic (e.g., genetics, maternal effects) to the population. We sought to understand the long-term population dynamics of an important native Lake Michigan prey fish, the bloaterCoregonus hoyi. Over a 38-year time series, three 10- to 15-year phases occurred (poor, excellent, and then poor recruitment) without high interannual variability within a particular phase. We used dynamic linear models to determine whether extrinsic (winter and spring temperature, alewife predator densities) or intrinsic factors (population egg production, adult condition, adult sex ratio) explained variation in recruitment. Models that included population egg production, sex ratio, winter and spring temperature, and adult bloater condition explained the most variation. Of these variables, sex ratio, which ranged from 47% to 97% female across the time series, consistently had the greatest effect: recruitment declined with female predominance. Including biomass of adult alewife predators in the models did not explain additional variation. Overall our results indicated that bloater recruitment is linked to its sex ratio, but understanding the underlying mechanisms will require additional efforts.

Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

2015-01-01

Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total abundance produced estimates that largely conformed to our a priori expectation. Although care must be taken to tailor models to match the study population and survey data available, we argue that hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical models represent a powerful way forward for estimating abundance and explaining variation in the distribution of dynamical populations.

Multispecies modeling for adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and red knots in the Delaware Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Smith, David; Sweka, John A.; Martin, Julien; Nichols, James D.; Wong, Richard; Lyons, James E.; Niles, Lawrence J.; Kalasz, Kevin; Brust, Jeffrey; Klopfer, Michelle; Spear, Braddock

2011-01-01

Adaptive management requires that predictive models be explicit and transparent to improve decisions by comparing management actions, directing further research and monitoring, and facilitating learning. The rufa subspecies of red knots (Calidris canutus rufa), which has recently exhibited steep population declines, relies on horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) eggs as their primary food source during stopover in Delaware Bay during spring migration. We present a model with two different parameterizations for use in the adaptive management of horseshoe crab harvests in the Delaware Bay that links red knot mass gain, annual survival, and fecundity to horseshoe crab dynamics. The models reflect prevailing hypotheses regarding ecological links between these two species. When reported crab harvest from 1998 to 2008 was applied, projections corresponded to the observed red knot population abundances depending on strengths of the demographic relationship between these species. We compared different simulated horseshoe crab harvest strategies to evaluate whether, given this model, horseshoe crab harvest management can affect red knot conservation and found that restricting harvest can benefit red knot populations. Our model is the first to explicitly and quantitatively link these two species and will be used within an adaptive management framework to manage the Delaware Bay system and learn more about the specific nature of the linkage between the two species.

A reduction for spiking integrate-and-fire network dynamics ranging from homogeneity to synchrony.

PubMed

Zhang, J W; Rangan, A V

2015-04-01

In this paper we provide a general methodology for systematically reducing the dynamics of a class of integrate-and-fire networks down to an augmented 4-dimensional system of ordinary-differential-equations. The class of integrate-and-fire networks we focus on are homogeneously-structured, strongly coupled, and fluctuation-driven. Our reduction succeeds where most current firing-rate and population-dynamics models fail because we account for the emergence of 'multiple-firing-events' involving the semi-synchronous firing of many neurons. These multiple-firing-events are largely responsible for the fluctuations generated by the network and, as a result, our reduction faithfully describes many dynamic regimes ranging from homogeneous to synchronous. Our reduction is based on first principles, and provides an analyzable link between the integrate-and-fire network parameters and the relatively low-dimensional dynamics underlying the 4-dimensional augmented ODE.

Predators indirectly control vector-borne disease: linking predator-prey and host-pathogen models.

PubMed

Moore, Sean M; Borer, Elizabeth T; Hosseini, Parviez R

2010-01-06

Pathogens transmitted by arthropod vectors are common in human populations, agricultural systems and natural communities. Transmission of these vector-borne pathogens depends on the population dynamics of the vector species as well as its interactions with other species within the community. In particular, predation may be sufficient to control pathogen prevalence indirectly via the vector. To examine the indirect effect of predators on vectored-pathogen dynamics, we developed a theoretical model that integrates predator-prey and host-pathogen theory. We used this model to determine whether predation can prevent pathogen persistence or alter the stability of host-pathogen dynamics. We found that, in the absence of predation, pathogen prevalence in the host increases with vector fecundity, whereas predation on the vector causes pathogen prevalence to decline, or even become extinct, with increasing vector fecundity. We also found that predation on a vector may drastically slow the initial spread of a pathogen. The predator can increase host abundance indirectly by reducing or eliminating infection in the host population. These results highlight the importance of studying interactions that, within the greater community, may alter our predictions when studying disease dynamics. From an applied perspective, these results also suggest situations where an introduced predator or the natural enemies of a vector may slow the rate of spread of an emerging vector-borne pathogen.

Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate

PubMed Central

Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

2017-01-01

We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom–bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. PMID:29158411

Molecular dynamics simulations of viral RNA polymerases link conserved and correlated motions of functional elements to fidelity

PubMed Central

Moustafa, Ibrahim M.; Shen, Hujun; Morton, Brandon; Colina, Coray M.; Cameron, Craig E.

2011-01-01

The viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) is essential for multiplication of all RNA viruses. The sequence diversity of an RNA virus population contributes to its ability to infect the host. This diversity emanates from errors made by the RdRp during RNA synthesis. The physical basis for RdRp fidelity is unclear but is linked to conformational changes occurring during the nucleotide-addition cycle. To understand RdRp dynamics that might influence RdRp function, we have analyzed all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on the nanosecond timescale of four RdRps from the picornavirus family that exhibit 30–74% sequence identity. Principal component analysis showed that the major motions observed during the simulations derived from conserved structural motifs and regions of known function. Dynamics of residues participating in the same biochemical property, for example RNA binding, nucleotide binding or catalysis, were correlated even when spatially distant on the RdRp structure. The conserved and correlated dynamics of functional, structural elements suggest co-evolution of dynamics with structure and function of the RdRp. Crystal structures of all picornavirus RdRps exhibit a template-nascent RNA duplex channel too small to fully accommodate duplex RNA. Simulations revealed opening and closing motions of the RNA and NTP channels, which might be relevant to NTP entry, PPi exit and translocation. A role for nanosecond timescale dynamics in RdRp fidelity is supported by altered dynamics of the high-fidelity G64S derivative of PV RdRp relative to wild-type enzyme. PMID:21575642

Sedimentation: Potential Biological Effects of Dredging Operations in Estuarine and Marine Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-01

seagrass habitat dominated by Thalassia testudinum in Florida has also been linked to poor water quality, including increased turbidity and nutrient loading...1973) found that construction of a canal that temporarily covered turtle grass, Thalassia testudinum, with up to 10 cm of sediment, killed the leaves...shoot demographic characteristics and population dynamics in Thalassia testudinum," Marine Ecology Progress Series 110, 59-66. Ellison, J. C. (1999

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Beyond mice and men: Environmental change, immunity and infections in wild ungulates

PubMed Central

Jolles, Anna E.; Beechler, Brianna R.; Dolan, Brian P.

2014-01-01

In the face of rapid environmental change, anticipating shifts in microparasite and macroparasite dynamics, including emergence events, is an enormous challenge. We argue that immunological studies in natural populations are pivotal to meeting this challenge: Many components of environmental change – shifts in biotic assemblages, altered climate patterns, and reduced environmental predictability – may affect host immunity. We suggest that wild ungulates can serve as model systems aiding the discovery of immunological mechanisms that link environmental change with parasite transmission dynamics. Our review of eco-immunological studies in wild ungulates reveals progress in understanding how co-infections affect immunity and parasite transmission; and how environmental and genetic factors interact to shape immunity. Changes in bioavailability of micronutrients have been linked to immunity and health in wild ungulates. Although physiological stress in response to environmental change has been assessed, downstream effects on immunity have not been studied. Moreover, the taxonomic range of ungulates studied is limited to bovids (bighorn sheep, Soay sheep, chamois, musk oxen, bison, African buffalo) and a few cervids (red deer, black-tailed deer). We discuss areas where future studies in ungulates could lead to significant contributions in understanding patterns of immunity and infection in natural populations and across species. PMID:25354672

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Naming game with biased assimilation over adaptive networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Guiyuan; Zhang, Weidong

2018-01-01

The dynamics of two-word naming game incorporating the influence of biased assimilation over adaptive network is investigated in this paper. Firstly an extended naming game with biased assimilation (NGBA) is proposed. The hearer in NGBA accepts the received information in a biased manner, where he may refuse to accept the conveyed word from the speaker with a predefined probability, if the conveyed word is different from his current memory. Secondly, the adaptive network is formulated by rewiring the links. Theoretical analysis is developed to show that the population in NGBA will eventually reach global consensus on either A or B. Numerical simulation results show that the larger strength of biased assimilation on both words, the slower convergence speed, while larger strength of biased assimilation on only one word can slightly accelerate the convergence; larger population size can make the rate of convergence slower to a large extent when it increases from a relatively small size, while such effect becomes minor when the population size is large; the behavior of adaptively reconnecting the existing links can greatly accelerate the rate of convergence especially on the sparse connected network.

Lake whitefish and Diporeia spp. in the Great lakes: an overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nalepa, Thomas F.; Mohr, Lloyd C.; Henderson, Bryan A.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Schneeberger, Philip J.

2005-01-01

Because of growing concern in the Great Lakes over declines in abundance and growth of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) and declines in abundance of the benthic amphipod Diporeia spp., a workshop was held to examine past and current trends, to explore trophic links, and to discuss the latest research results and needs. The workshop was divided into sessions on the status of populations in each of the lakes, bioenergetics and trophic dynamics, and exploitation and management. Abundance, growth, and condition of whitefish populations in Lakes Superior and Erie are stable and within the range of historical means, but these variables are declining in Lakes Michigan and Ontario and parts of Lake Huron. The loss of Diporeia spp., a major food item of whitefish, has been a factor in observed declines, particularly in Lake Ontario, but density-dependent factors also likely played a role in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The loss of Diporeia spp. is temporally linked to the introduction and proliferation of dreissenid mussels, but a direct cause for the negative response of Diporeia spp. has not been established. Given changes in whitefish populations, age-structured models need to be re-evaluated. Other whitefish research needs to include a better understanding of what environmental conditions lead to strong year-classes, improved aging techniques, and better information on individual population (stock) structure. Further collaborations between assessment biologists and researchers studying the lower food web would enhance an understanding of links between trophic levels.

A method for the direct measurement of electronic site populations in a molecular aggregate using two-dimensional electronic-vibrational spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Nicholas H. C.; Dong, Hui; Oliver, Thomas A. A.

2015-09-28

Two dimensional electronic spectroscopy has proven to be a valuable experimental technique to reveal electronic excitation dynamics in photosynthetic pigment-protein complexes, nanoscale semiconductors, organic photovoltaic materials, and many other types of systems. It does not, however, provide direct information concerning the spatial structure and dynamics of excitons. 2D infrared spectroscopy has become a widely used tool for studying structural dynamics but is incapable of directly providing information concerning electronic excited states. 2D electronic-vibrational (2DEV) spectroscopy provides a link between these domains, directly connecting the electronic excitation with the vibrational structure of the system under study. In this work, we derivemore » response functions for the 2DEV spectrum of a molecular dimer and propose a method by which 2DEV spectra could be used to directly measure the electronic site populations as a function of time following the initial electronic excitation. We present results from the response function simulations which show that our proposed approach is substantially valid. This method provides, to our knowledge, the first direct experimental method for measuring the electronic excited state dynamics in the spatial domain, on the molecular scale.« less

A method for the direct measurement of electronic site populations in a molecular aggregate using two-dimensional electronic-vibrational spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Nicholas H. C.; Dong, Hui; Oliver, Thomas A. A.

2015-09-28

Two dimensional electronic spectroscopy has proved to be a valuable experimental technique to reveal electronic excitation dynamics in photosynthetic pigment-protein complexes, nanoscale semiconductors, organic photovoltaic materials, and many other types of systems. It does not, however, provide direct information concerning the spatial structure and dynamics of excitons. 2D infrared spectroscopy has become a widely used tool for studying structural dynamics but is incapable of directly providing information concerning electronic excited states. 2D electronic-vibrational (2DEV) spectroscopy provides a link between these domains, directly connecting the electronic excitation with the vibrational structure of the system under study. In this work, we derivemore » response functions for the 2DEV spectrum of a molecular dimer and propose a method by which 2DEV spectra could be used to directly measure the electronic site populations as a function of time following the initial electronic excitation. We present results from the response function simulations which show that our proposed approach is substantially valid. This method provides, to our knowledge, the first direct experimental method for measuring the electronic excited state dynamics in the spatial domain, on the molecular scale.« less

A method for the direct measurement of electronic site populations in a molecular aggregate using two-dimensional electronic-vibrational spectroscopy.

PubMed

Lewis, Nicholas H C; Dong, Hui; Oliver, Thomas A A; Fleming, Graham R

2015-09-28

Two dimensional electronic spectroscopy has proved to be a valuable experimental technique to reveal electronic excitation dynamics in photosynthetic pigment-protein complexes, nanoscale semiconductors, organic photovoltaic materials, and many other types of systems. It does not, however, provide direct information concerning the spatial structure and dynamics of excitons. 2D infrared spectroscopy has become a widely used tool for studying structural dynamics but is incapable of directly providing information concerning electronic excited states. 2D electronic-vibrational (2DEV) spectroscopy provides a link between these domains, directly connecting the electronic excitation with the vibrational structure of the system under study. In this work, we derive response functions for the 2DEV spectrum of a molecular dimer and propose a method by which 2DEV spectra could be used to directly measure the electronic site populations as a function of time following the initial electronic excitation. We present results from the response function simulations which show that our proposed approach is substantially valid. This method provides, to our knowledge, the first direct experimental method for measuring the electronic excited state dynamics in the spatial domain, on the molecular scale.

Evolution of Cooperation in Adaptive Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segbroeck, Sven Van; Santos, Francisco C.; Traulsen, Arne; Lenaerts, Tom; Pacheco, Jorge M.

Humans are organized in societies, a phenomenon that would never have been possible without the evolution of cooperative behavior. Several mechanisms that foster this evolution have been unraveled over the years, with population structure as a prominent promoter of cooperation. Modern networks of exchange and cooperation are, however, becoming increasingly volatile, and less and less based on long-term stable structure. Here, we address how this change of paradigm aspects the evolution of cooperation. We discuss analytical and numerical models in which individuals can break social ties and create new ones. Interactions are modeled as two-player dilemmas of cooperation. Once a link between two individuals has formed, the productivity of this link is evaluated. Links can be broken off at different rates. This individual capacity of forming new links or severing inconvenient ones can effectively change the nature of the game. We address random formation of new links and local linking rules as well as different individual capacities to maintain social interactions. We conclude by discussing how adaptive social networks can become an important step towards more realistic models of cultural dynamics.

Scale-up of ecological experiments: Density variation in the mobile bivalve Macomona liliana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, Davod C.; Walters, R.; Thrush, S.; Dayton, P.

1997-01-01

At present the problem of scaling up from controlled experiments (necessarily at a small spatial scale) to questions of regional or global importance is perhaps the most pressing issue in ecology. Most of the proposed techniques recommend iterative cycling between theory and experiment. We present a graphical technique that facilitates this cycling by allowing the scope of experiments, surveys, and natural history observations to be compared to the scope of models and theory. We apply the scope analysis to the problem of understanding the population dynamics of a bivalve exposed to environmental stress at the scale of a harbour. Previous lab and field experiments were found not to be 1:1 scale models of harbour-wide processes. Scope analysis allowed small scale experiments to be linked to larger scale surveys and to a spatially explicit model of population dynamics.

Model-Based Phenotypic Signatures Governing the Dynamics of the Stem and Semi-differentiated Cell Populations in Dysplastic Colonic Crypts.

PubMed

Nikolov, Svetoslav; Santos, Guido; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Vera, Julio

2018-02-01

Mathematical modeling of cell differentiated in colonic crypts can contribute to a better understanding of basic mechanisms underlying colonic tissue organization, but also its deregulation during carcinogenesis and tumor progression. Here, we combined bifurcation analysis to assess the effect that time delay has in the complex interplay of stem cells and semi-differentiated cells at the niche of colonic crypts, and systematic model perturbation and simulation to find model-based phenotypes linked to cancer progression. The models suggest that stem cell and semi-differentiated cell population dynamics in colonic crypts can display chaotic behavior. In addition, we found that clinical profiling of colorectal cancer correlates with the in silico phenotypes proposed by the mathematical model. Further, potential therapeutic targets for chemotherapy resistant phenotypes are proposed, which in any case will require experimental validation.

Synchronisation and stability in river metapopulation networks.

PubMed

Yeakel, J D; Moore, J W; Guimarães, P R; de Aguiar, M A M

2014-03-01

Spatial structure in landscapes impacts population stability. Two linked components of stability have large consequences for persistence: first, statistical stability as the lack of temporal fluctuations; second, synchronisation as an aspect of dynamic stability, which erodes metapopulation rescue effects. Here, we determine the influence of river network structure on the stability of riverine metapopulations. We introduce an approach that converts river networks to metapopulation networks, and analytically show how fluctuation magnitude is influenced by interaction structure. We show that river metapopulation complexity (in terms of branching prevalence) has nonlinear dampening effects on population fluctuations, and can also buffer against synchronisation. We conclude by showing that river transects generally increase synchronisation, while the spatial scale of interaction has nonlinear effects on synchronised dynamics. Our results indicate that this dual stability - conferred by fluctuation and synchronisation dampening - emerges from interaction structure in rivers, and this may strongly influence the persistence of river metapopulations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

PubMed Central

Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

2016-01-01

Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis. PMID:27048866

Dynamical resource nexus assessments: from accounting to sustainability approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmoral, Gloria; Yan, Xiaoyu

2017-04-01

Continued economic development and population growth result in increasing pressures on natural resources, from local to international levels, for meeting societal demands on water, energy and food. To date there are a few tools that link models to identify the relationships and to account for flows of water, energy and food. However, these tools in general can offer only a static view often at national level and with annual temporal resolution. Moreover, they can only account flows but cannot consider the required amounts and conditions of the natural capital that supplies and maintains these flows. With the emerging nexus thinking, our research is currently focused on promoting dynamical environmental analyses beyond the conventional silo mentalities. Our study aims to show new advancements in existing tools (e.g., dynamical life cycle assessment) and develop novel environmental indicators relevant for the resource nexus assessment. We aim to provide a step forward when sustainability conditions and resilience thresholds are aligned with flows under production (e.g., food, water and energy), process level under analysis (e.g., local production, transport, manufacturing, final consumption, reuse, disposal) and existing biophysical local conditions. This approach would help to embrace and better characterise the spatiotemporal dynamics, complexity and existing links between and within the natural and societal systems, which are crucial to evaluate and promote more environmentally sustainable economic activities.

Bacterioplankton communities of Crater Lake, OR: Dynamic changes with euphotic zone food web structure and stable deep water populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urbach, E.; Vergin, K.L.; Larson, G.L.; Giovannoni, S.J.

2007-01-01

The distribution of bacterial and archaeal species in Crater Lake plankton varies dramatically over depth and with time, as assessed by hybridization of group-specific oligonucleotides to RNA extracted from lakewater. Nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis of relative bacterial phylotype densities revealed complex relationships among assemblages sampled from depth profiles in July, August and September of 1997 through 1999. CL500-11 green nonsulfur bacteria (Phylum Chloroflexi) and marine Group I crenarchaeota are consistently dominant groups in the oxygenated deep waters at 300 and 500 m. Other phylotypes found in the deep waters are similar to surface and mid-depth populations and vary with time. Euphotic zone assemblages are dominated either by ??-proteobacteria or CL120-10 verrucomicrobia, and ACK4 actinomycetes. MDS analyses of euphotic zone populations in relation to environmental variables and phytoplankton and zooplankton population structures reveal apparent links between Daphnia pulicaria zooplankton population densities and microbial community structure. These patterns may reflect food web interactions that link kokanee salmon population densities to community structure of the bacterioplankton, via fish predation on Daphnia with cascading consequences to Daphnia bacterivory and predation on bacterivorous protists. These results demonstrate a stable bottom-water microbial community. They also extend previous observations of food web-driven changes in euphotic zone bacterioplankton community structure to an oligotrophic setting. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Fluctuating interaction network and time-varying stability of a natural fish community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushio, Masayuki; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Masuda, Reiji; Deyle, Ethan R.; Ye, Hao; Chang, Chun-Wei; Sugihara, George; Kondoh, Michio

2018-02-01

Ecological theory suggests that large-scale patterns such as community stability can be influenced by changes in interspecific interactions that arise from the behavioural and/or physiological responses of individual species varying over time. Although this theory has experimental support, evidence from natural ecosystems is lacking owing to the challenges of tracking rapid changes in interspecific interactions (known to occur on timescales much shorter than a generation time) and then identifying the effect of such changes on large-scale community dynamics. Here, using tools for analysing nonlinear time series and a 12-year-long dataset of fortnightly collected observations on a natural marine fish community in Maizuru Bay, Japan, we show that short-term changes in interaction networks influence overall community dynamics. Among the 15 dominant species, we identify 14 interspecific interactions to construct a dynamic interaction network. We show that the strengths, and even types, of interactions change with time; we also develop a time-varying stability measure based on local Lyapunov stability for attractor dynamics in non-equilibrium nonlinear systems. We use this dynamic stability measure to examine the link between the time-varying interaction network and community stability. We find seasonal patterns in dynamic stability for this fish community that broadly support expectations of current ecological theory. Specifically, the dominance of weak interactions and higher species diversity during summer months are associated with higher dynamic stability and smaller population fluctuations. We suggest that interspecific interactions, community network structure and community stability are dynamic properties, and that linking fluctuating interaction networks to community-level dynamic properties is key to understanding the maintenance of ecological communities in nature.

Parasites and phytoplankton, with special emphasis on dinoflagellate infections.

PubMed

Park, Myung Gil; Yih, Wonho; Coats, D Wayne

2004-01-01

Planktonic members of most algal groups are known to harbor intracellular symbionts, including viruses, bacteria, fungi, and protozoa. Among the dinoflagellates, viral and bacterial associations were recognized a quarter century ago, yet their impact on host populations remains largely unresolved. By contrast, fungal and protozoan infections of dinoflagellates are well documented and generally viewed as playing major roles in host population dynamics. Our understanding of fungal parasites is largely based on studies for freshwater diatoms and dinoflagellates, although fungal infections are known for some marine phytoplankton. In freshwater systems, fungal chytrids have been linked to mass mortalities of host organisms, suppression or retardation of phytoplankton blooms, and selective effects on species composition leading to successional changes in plankton communities. Parasitic dinoflagellates of the genus Amoebophrya and the newly described Perkinsozoa, Parvilucifera infectans, are widely distributed in coastal waters of the world where they commonly infect photosynthetic and heterotrophic dinoflagellates. Recent work indicates that these parasites can have significant impacts on host physiology, behavior, and bloom dynamics. Thus, parasitism needs to be carefully considered in developing concepts about plankton dynamics and the flow of material in marine food webs.

Neighbourhood reaction in the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Yang, Guoli; Zhang, Weiming; Xiu, Baoxin

2015-05-07

Combining evolutionary games with adaptive networks, an entangled model between strategy evolution and structure adaptation is researched in this paper. We consider a large population of cooperators C and defectors D placed in the networks, playing the repeated prisoner׳s dilemma (PD) games. Because of the conflicts between social welfare and personal rationality, both strategy and structure are allowed to change. In this paper, the dynamics of strategy originates form the partner imitation based on social learning and the dynamics of structure is driven by the active linking and neighbourhood reaction. Notably, the neighbourhood reaction is investigated considering the changes of interfaces between cooperators and defectors, where some neighbours may get away from the interface once the focal agent changes to different strategy. A rich landscape is demonstrated by changing various embedding parameters, which sheds light upon that reacting promptly to the shifted neighbour will promote the prevalence of cooperation. Our model encapsulates the dynamics of strategy, reaction and structure into the evolutionary games, which manifests some intriguing principles in the competition between two groups in natural populations, artificial systems and even human societies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics After a Natural Disaster

PubMed Central

Nobles, Jenna; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Thomas, Duncan

2015-01-01

Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics. We investigate the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. Using population-representative multilevel longitudinal data, we identify a behavioral fertility response to mortality exposure, both at the level of a couple and in the broader community. We observe a sustained fertility increase at the aggregate level following the tsunami, which was driven by two behavioral responses to mortality exposure. First, mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster were significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami. This response explains about 13 % of the aggregate increase in fertility. Second, women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher, indicating that the fertility of these women is an important route to rebuilding the population in the aftermath of a mortality shock. Such community-level effects have received little attention in demographic scholarship. PMID:25585644

The effect of travel loss on evolutionarily stable distributions of populations in space.

PubMed

Deangelis, Donald L; Wolkowicz, Gail S K; Lou, Yuan; Jiang, Yuexin; Novak, Mark; Svanbäck, Richard; Araújo, Márcio S; Jo, Youngseung; Cleary, Erin A

2011-07-01

A key assumption of the ideal free distribution (IFD) is that there are no costs in moving between habitat patches. However, because many populations exhibit more or less continuous population movement between patches and traveling cost is a frequent factor, it is important to determine the effects of costs on expected population movement patterns and spatial distributions. We consider a food chain (tritrophic or bitrophic) in which one species moves between patches, with energy cost or mortality risk in movement. In the two-patch case, assuming forced movement in one direction, an evolutionarily stable strategy requires bidirectional movement, even if costs during movement are high. In the N-patch case, assuming that at least one patch is linked bidirectionally to all other patches, optimal movement rates can lead to source-sink dynamics where patches with negative growth rates are maintained by other patches with positive growth rates. As well, dispersal between patches is not balanced (even in the two-patch case), leading to a deviation from the IFD. Our results indicate that cost-associated forced movement can have important consequences for spatial metapopulation dynamics. Relevance to marine reserve design and the study of stream communities subject to drift is discussed.

Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

2018-05-29

To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

2008-09-01

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.

Exploitation dynamics of small fish stocks like Arctic cisco

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2004-01-01

Potential impacts to the Arctic cisco population fall into both demographic and behavioral categories. Possible demographic impacts include stock recruitment effects, limited escapement into marine habitats, and variable age-class reproductive success. Potential behavioral impacts involve migratory patterns, variable life histories, and strategies for seasonal feeding. Arctic cisco stocks are highly susceptible to over-exploitation due to our limited basic knowledge of the highly variable Arctic environment and the role they play in this dynamic ecosystem.Our knowledge of potential demographic changes is very limited, and it is necessary to determine the abundance and recruitment of the hypothesized Mackenzie River source population, the extent of the coastal migratory corridor, growth patterns, and coastal upwelling and mixing effects on population dynamics for this species. Information needed to answer some of the demographic questions includes basic evolutionary history and molecular genetics of Arctic cisco (for instance, are there contributions to the Arctic cisco stock from the Yukon?), what is the effective population size (i.e., breeding population size), and potential links to changes in climate. The basic behavioral questions include migratory and variable life history questions. For instance, the extent of movement back and forth between freshwater and the sea, age-specific differences in food web dynamics, and nearshore brackish and high salinity habitats are topics that should be studied. Life history data should be gathered to understand the variation in age at reproduction, salinity tolerance, scale and duration of the freshwater stage, survival, and adult migration. Both molecular and ecological tools should be integrated to manage the Arctic cisco stock(s), such as understanding global climate changes on patterns of harvest and recruitment, and the genetics of population structure and colonization. Perhaps other populations are contributing to the population within the Colville River other than only the Mackenzie River population. This needs further exploration. By examining otolith microchemistry, unique transitions from freshwater to sea can be identified for these stocks. This may shed light on why some fish arrive at the mouth of the Colville River, while others don’t.

Quantifying geomorphic controls on riparian forest dynamics using a linked physical-biological model: implications for river corridor conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Harper, E. B.; Fremier, A. K.; Hayden, M. K.; Battles, J. J.

2009-12-01

In high-order alluvial river systems, physical factors of flooding and channel migration are particularly important drivers of riparian forest dynamics because they regulate habitat creation, resource fluxes of water, nutrients and light that are critical for growth, and mortality from fluvial disturbance. Predicting vegetation composition and dynamics at individual sites in this setting is challenging, both because of the stochastic nature of the flood regime and the spatial variability of flood events. Ecological models that correlate environmental factors with species’ occurrence and abundance (e.g., ’niche models’) often work well in infrequently-disturbed upland habitats, but are less useful in river corridors and other dynamic zones where environmental conditions fluctuate greatly and selection pressures on disturbance-adapted organisms are complex. In an effort to help conserve critical riparian forest habitat along the middle Sacramento River, CA, we are taking a mechanistic approach to quantify linkages between fluvial and biotic processes for Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii), a keystone pioneer tree in dryland rivers ecosystems of the U.S. Southwest. To predict the corridor-wide population effects of projected changes to the disturbance regime from flow regulation, climate change, and landscape modifications, we have coupled a physical model of channel meandering with a patch-based population model that incorporates the climatic, hydrologic, and topographic factors critical for tree recruitment and survival. We employed these linked simulations to study the relative influence of the two most critical habitat types--point bars and abandoned channels--in sustaining the corridor-wide cottonwood population over a 175-year period. The physical model uses discharge data and channel planform to predict the spatial distribution of new habitat patches; the population model runs on top of this physical template to track tree colonization and survival on each patch. Model parameters of tree life-history traits (e.g., dispersal timing) and hydrogeomorphic processes (e.g., sedimentation rate) were determined by field and experimental studies, and aerial LIDAR, with separate range of values for point bar versus floodplain habitats. In most runs, abandoned channels were colonized one third as frequently as point bars, but supported much larger forest patches when colonization was successful (from 15-99% of forest area, depending on point bar success). Independent evaluation of aerial photos confirm that cottonwood forest stands associated with abandoned channels were less frequent (38% of all stands) but more extensive (53% of all forest area) relative to those caused by migrating point bars. Results indicate that changes to the rate and scale of river migration, and particularly channel abandonment, from human and climatic alterations to the flow regime will likely influence riparian corridor-wide tree population structure and forest dynamics, with consequences for the community of organisms that depend on this habitat.

Effects of Dynamical Evolution on Globular Clusters’ Internal Kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiongco, Maria; Vesperini, Enrico; Varri, Anna Lisa

2018-01-01

The synergy between recent photometric, spectroscopic, and astrometric studies is revealing that globular clusters deviate from the traditional picture of dynamically simple and single stellar population systems. Complex kinematical features such as velocity anisotropy and rotation, and the existence of multiple stellar populations are some of the key observational findings. My thesis work has aimed to build a theoretical framework to interpret these new observational results and to understand their link with a globular cluster’s dynamical history.I have focused on the study of the evolution of globular clusters' internal kinematics, as driven by two-body relaxation, and the interplay between internal angular momentum and the external Galactic tidal field. With a specifically-designed, large survey of direct N-body simulations, I have explored the three-dimensional structure of the velocity space of tidally-perturbed clusters, by characterizing their degree of anisotropy and their rotational properties. These studies have proved that a cluster's kinematical properties contain a distinct imprints of the cluster’s initial structural properties, dynamical history, and tidal environment. By relaxing a number of simplifying assumptions that are traditionally imposed, I have also showed how the interplay between a cluster's internal evolution and the interaction with the host galaxy can produce complex morphological and kinematical properties, such as a counter-rotating core and a twisting of the projected isodensity contours.Building on this fundamental understanding, I have then studied the dynamics of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters, with attention to the largely unexplored role of angular momentum. I have analyzed the evolution of clusters with stellar populations characterized by different initial structural and kinematical properties to determine how long these differences are preserved, and in what cases they could still be observable in present-day systems.This body of results provides essential guidance for a meaningful interpretation of the emerging dynamical complexity of globular clusters in the era of Gaia and other upcoming large spectroscopic surveys.

Coupling between populations of copepod taxa within an estuarine ecosystem and the adjacent offshore regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGinty, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Power, A. M.

2012-07-01

Population dynamics in open systems are complicated by the interactions of local demography and local environmental forcing with processes occurring at larger scales. A local system such as an estuary or bay may contain a zooplankton population that effectively becomes independent of regional dynamics or the local dynamics may be closely coupled to a broader scale pattern. As an alternative, the details of migration and advection may mean that dynamics in a local system are coupled to other specific areas rather than tracking the overall dynamics at a larger scale. We used a reconstructed time series (1973-1987) for copepod taxa to examine the extent to which zooplankton dynamics in Galway Bay reflect processes in broader areas of the NE Atlantic. Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) counts were used to establish time series for nine offshore ecoregions, with the regions themselves defined using underlying patterns of chlorophyll variability. The open nature of Galway Bay was reflected in strong associations between bay zooplankton counts and offshore CPR data in a majority of cases (7/10). For each zooplankton taxon, there were large differences among regions in the degree of association with Galway Bay time series. Akaike weights indicated that one ecoregion tended to be the dominant link for each taxon. This indicates that the zooplankton of the Bay reflect more than the local modification of a regional signal and that different zooplankton in the bay may have separate source regions. The data from Galway Bay also fall within a 'sampling shadow' of the CPR. Later years of the time series showed evidence for changes in phenology, with spring zooplankton peaks generally occurring earlier in the year for smaller species.

The application of a biometric identification technique for linking community and hospital data in rural Ghana

PubMed Central

Odei-Lartey, Eliezer Ofori; Boateng, Dennis; Danso, Samuel; Kwarteng, Anthony; Abokyi, Livesy; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Gyaase, Stephaney; Asante, Kwaku Poku; Owusu-Agyei, Seth

2016-01-01

Background The reliability of counts for estimating population dynamics and disease burdens in communities depends on the availability of a common unique identifier for matching general population data with health facility data. Biometric data has been explored as a feasible common identifier between the health data and sociocultural data of resident members in rural communities within the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System located in the central part of Ghana. Objective Our goal was to assess the feasibility of using fingerprint identification to link community data and hospital data in a rural African setting. Design A combination of biometrics and other personal identification techniques were used to identify individual's resident within a surveillance population seeking care in two district hospitals. Visits from resident individuals were successfully recorded and categorized by the success of the techniques applied during identification. The successes of visits that involved identification by fingerprint were further examined by age. Results A total of 27,662 hospital visits were linked to resident individuals. Over 85% of those visits were successfully identified using at least one identification method. Over 65% were successfully identified and linked using their fingerprints. Supervisory support from the hospital administration was critical in integrating this identification system into its routine activities. No concerns were expressed by community members about the fingerprint registration and identification processes. Conclusions Fingerprint identification should be combined with other methods to be feasible in identifying community members in African rural settings. This can be enhanced in communities with some basic Demographic Surveillance System or census information. PMID:26993473

The application of a biometric identification technique for linking community and hospital data in rural Ghana.

PubMed

Odei-Lartey, Eliezer Ofori; Boateng, Dennis; Danso, Samuel; Kwarteng, Anthony; Abokyi, Livesy; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Gyaase, Stephaney; Asante, Kwaku Poku; Owusu-Agyei, Seth

2016-01-01

The reliability of counts for estimating population dynamics and disease burdens in communities depends on the availability of a common unique identifier for matching general population data with health facility data. Biometric data has been explored as a feasible common identifier between the health data and sociocultural data of resident members in rural communities within the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System located in the central part of Ghana. Our goal was to assess the feasibility of using fingerprint identification to link community data and hospital data in a rural African setting. A combination of biometrics and other personal identification techniques were used to identify individual's resident within a surveillance population seeking care in two district hospitals. Visits from resident individuals were successfully recorded and categorized by the success of the techniques applied during identification. The successes of visits that involved identification by fingerprint were further examined by age. A total of 27,662 hospital visits were linked to resident individuals. Over 85% of those visits were successfully identified using at least one identification method. Over 65% were successfully identified and linked using their fingerprints. Supervisory support from the hospital administration was critical in integrating this identification system into its routine activities. No concerns were expressed by community members about the fingerprint registration and identification processes. Fingerprint identification should be combined with other methods to be feasible in identifying community members in African rural settings. This can be enhanced in communities with some basic Demographic Surveillance System or census information.

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE PAGES

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew; ...

2015-09-30

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Altogether, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Together, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keedy, Daniel A.; Kenner, Lillian R.; Warkentin, Matthew

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences ofmore » these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Altogether, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function.« less

Fitness-Balanced Escape Determines Resolution of Dynamic Founder Virus Escape Processes in HIV-1 Infection

PubMed Central

Sunshine, Justine E.; Larsen, Brendan B.; Maust, Brandon; Casey, Ellie; Deng, Wenje; Chen, Lennie; Westfall, Dylan H.; Kim, Moon; Zhao, Hong; Ghorai, Suvankar; Lanxon-Cookson, Erinn; Rolland, Morgane; Collier, Ann C.; Maenza, Janine; Mullins, James I.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT To understand the interplay between host cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) responses and the mechanisms by which HIV-1 evades them, we studied viral evolutionary patterns associated with host CTL responses in six linked transmission pairs. HIV-1 sequences corresponding to full-length p17 and p24 gag were generated by 454 pyrosequencing for all pairs near the time of transmission, and seroconverting partners were followed for a median of 847 days postinfection. T-cell responses were screened by gamma interferon/interleukin-2 (IFN-γ/IL-2) FluoroSpot using autologous peptide sets reflecting any Gag variant present in at least 5% of sequence reads in the individual's viral population. While we found little evidence for the occurrence of CTL reversions, CTL escape processes were found to be highly dynamic, with multiple epitope variants emerging simultaneously. We found a correlation between epitope entropy and the number of epitope variants per response (r = 0.43; P = 0.05). In cases in which multiple escape mutations developed within a targeted epitope, a variant with no fitness cost became fixed in the viral population. When multiple mutations within an epitope achieved fitness-balanced escape, these escape mutants were each maintained in the viral population. Additional mutations found to confer escape but undetected in viral populations incurred high fitness costs, suggesting that functional constraints limit the available sites tolerable to escape mutations. These results further our understanding of the impact of CTL escape and reversion from the founder virus in HIV infection and contribute to the identification of immunogenic Gag regions most vulnerable to a targeted T-cell attack. IMPORTANCE Rapid diversification of the viral population is a hallmark of HIV-1 infection, and understanding the selective forces driving the emergence of viral variants can provide critical insight into the interplay between host immune responses and viral evolution. We used deep sequencing to comprehensively follow viral evolution over time in six linked HIV transmission pairs. We then mapped T-cell responses to explore if mutations arose due to adaption to the host and found that escape processes were often highly dynamic, with multiple mutations arising within targeted epitopes. When we explored the impact of these mutations on replicative capacity, we found that dynamic escape processes only resolve with the selection of mutations that conferred escape with no fitness cost to the virus. These results provide further understanding of the complicated viral-host interactions that occur during early HIV-1 infection and may help inform the design of future vaccine immunogens. PMID:26223634

Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate.

PubMed

Bevan, Andrew; Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

2017-12-05

We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Study on general theory of kinematics and dynamics of wheeled mobile robots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsukishima, Takahiro; Sasaki, Ken; Takano, Masaharu; Inoue, Kenji

1992-03-01

This paper proposes a general theory of kinematics and dynamics of wheeled mobile robots (WMRs). Unlike robotic manipulators which are modeled as 3-dimensional serial link mechanism, WMRs will be modeled as planar linkage mechanism with multiple links branching out from the base and/or another link. Since this model resembles a tree with branches, it will be called 'tree-structured-link'. The end of each link corresponds to the wheel which is in contact with the floor. In dynamics of WMR, equation of motion of a WMR is derived from joint input torques incorporating wheel dynamics. The wheel dynamics determines forces and moments acting on wheels as a function of slip velocity. This slippage of wheels is essential in dynamics of WMR. It will also be shown that the dynamics of WMR reduces to kinematics when slippage of wheels is neglected. Furthermore, the equation of dynamics is rewritten in velocity input form, since most of industrial motors are velocity controlled.

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles.

PubMed

Barraquand, Frédéric; Louca, Stilianos; Abbott, Karen C; Cobbold, Christina A; Cordoleani, Flora; DeAngelis, Donald L; Elderd, Bret D; Fox, Jeremy W; Greenwood, Priscilla; Hilker, Frank M; Murray, Dennis L; Stieha, Christopher R; Taylor, Rachel A; Vitense, Kelsey; Wolkowicz, Gail S K; Tyson, Rebecca C

2017-08-01

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer-resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Moving forward in circles: Challenges and opportunities in modeling population cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barraquand, Frederic; Louca, Stilianos; Abbott, Karen C; Cobbold, Christina A; Cordoleani, Flora; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Elderd, Bret D; Fox, Jeremy W; Greenwood, Priscilla; Hilker, Frank M; Murray, Dennis; Stieha, Christopher R; Taylor, Rachel A; Vitense, Kelsey; Wolkowicz, Gail; Tyson, Rebecca C

2017-01-01

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research.

Predicting the evolution of complex networks via similarity dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tao; Chen, Leiting; Zhong, Linfeng; Xian, Xingping

2017-01-01

Almost all real-world networks are subject to constant evolution, and plenty of them have been investigated empirically to uncover the underlying evolution mechanism. However, the evolution prediction of dynamic networks still remains a challenging problem. The crux of this matter is to estimate the future network links of dynamic networks. This paper studies the evolution prediction of dynamic networks with link prediction paradigm. To estimate the likelihood of the existence of links more accurate, an effective and robust similarity index is presented by exploiting network structure adaptively. Moreover, most of the existing link prediction methods do not make a clear distinction between future links and missing links. In order to predict the future links, the networks are regarded as dynamic systems in this paper, and a similarity updating method, spatial-temporal position drift model, is developed to simulate the evolutionary dynamics of node similarity. Then the updated similarities are used as input information for the future links' likelihood estimation. Extensive experiments on real-world networks suggest that the proposed similarity index performs better than baseline methods and the position drift model performs well for evolution prediction in real-world evolving networks.

Determining habitat quality for species that demonstrate dynamic habitat selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beerens, James M.; Frederick, Peter C; Noonburg, Erik G; Gawlik, Dale E.

2015-01-01

Determining habitat quality for wildlife populations requires relating a species' habitat to its survival and reproduction. Within a season, species occurrence and density can be disconnected from measures of habitat quality when resources are highly seasonal, unpredictable over time, and patchy. Here we establish an explicit link among dynamic selection of changing resources, spatio-temporal species distributions, and fitness for predictive abundance and occurrence models that are used for short-term water management and long-term restoration planning. We used the wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM) that estimate (1) daily changes in selection across resource gradients, (2) landscape abundance of flocks and individuals, (3) conspecific foraging aggregation, and (4) resource unit occurrence (at fixed 400 m cells) to quantify habitat quality and its consequences on reproduction for wetland indicator species. We linked maximum annual numbers of nests detected across the study area and nesting success of Great Egrets (Ardea alba), White Ibises (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) over a 20-year period to estimated daily dynamics of food resources produced by WADEM over a 7490 km2 area. For all species, increases in predicted species abundance in March and high abundance in April were strongly linked to breeding responses. Great Egret nesting effort and success were higher when birds also showed greater conspecific foraging aggregation. Synthesis and applications: This study provides the first empirical evidence that dynamic habitat selection processes and distributions of wading birds over environmental gradients are linked with reproductive measures over periods of decades. Further, predictor variables at a variety of temporal (daily-multiannual) resolutions and spatial (400 m to regional) scales effectively explained variation in ecological processes that change habitat quality. The process used here allows managers to develop short- and long-term conservation strategies that (1) consider flexible behavioral patterns and (2) are robust to environmental variation over time.

Emerging prion disease drives host selection in a wildlife population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Johnson, Chad J.; Adams, Marie; McKenzie, Debbie I.

2012-01-01

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as an important force driving population dynamics, conservation biology, and natural selection in wildlife populations. Infectious agents have been implicated in the decline of small or endangered populations and may act to constrain population size, distribution, growth rates, or migration patterns. Further, diseases may provide selective pressures that shape the genetic diversity of populations or species. Thus, understanding disease dynamics and selective pressures from pathogens is crucial to understanding population processes, managing wildlife diseases, and conserving biological diversity. There is ample evidence that variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) impacts host susceptibility to prion diseases. Still, little is known about how genetic differences might influence natural selection within wildlife populations. Here we link genetic variation with differential susceptibility of white-tailed deer to chronic wasting disease (CWD), with implications for fitness and disease-driven genetic selection. We developed a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assay to efficiently genotype deer at the locus of interest (in the 96th codon of the PRNP gene). Then, using a Bayesian modeling approach, we found that the more susceptible genotype had over four times greater risk of CWD infection; and, once infected, deer with the resistant genotype survived 49% longer (8.25 more months). We used these epidemiological parameters in a multi-stage population matrix model to evaluate relative fitness based on genotype-specific population growth rates. The differences in disease infection and mortality rates allowed genetically resistant deer to achieve higher population growth and obtain a long-term fitness advantage, which translated into a selection coefficient of over 1% favoring the CWD-resistant genotype. This selective pressure suggests that the resistant allele could become dominant in the population within an evolutionarily short time frame. Our work provides a rare example of a quantifiable disease-driven selection process in a wildlife population, demonstrating the potential for infectious diseases to alter host populations. This will have direct bearing on the epidemiology, dynamics, and future trends in CWD transmission and spread. Understanding genotype-specific epidemiology will improve predictive models and inform management strategies for CWD-affected cervid populations.

Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

PubMed

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

The Blue Straggler Star Population in NGC 1261: Evidence for a Post-core-collapse Bounce State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simunovic, Mirko; Puzia, Thomas H.; Sills, Alison

2014-11-01

We present a multi-passband photometric study of the Blue Straggler Star (BSS) population in the Galactic globular cluster (GC) NGC 1261, using available space- and ground-based survey data. The inner BSS population is found to have two distinct sequences in the color-magnitude diagram (CMD), similar to double BSS sequences detected in other GCs. These well defined sequences are presumably linked to single short-lived events such as core collapse, which are expected to boost the formation of BSSs. In agreement with this, we find a BSS sequence in NGC 1261 which can be well reproduced individually by a theoretical model prediction of a 2 Gyr old population of stellar collision products, which are expected to form in the denser inner regions during short-lived core contraction phases. Additionally, we report the occurrence of a group of BSSs with unusually blue colors in the CMD, which are consistent with a corresponding model of a 200 Myr old population of stellar collision products. The properties of the NGC 1261 BSS populations, including their spatial distributions, suggest an advanced dynamical evolutionary state of the cluster, but the core of this GC does not show the classical signatures of core collapse. We argue that these apparent contradictions provide evidence for a post-core-collapse bounce state seen in dynamical simulations of old GCs.

Seasonal dynamics, geographical range size, hosts, genetic diversity and phylogeography of Amblyomma sculptum in Argentina.

PubMed

Tarragona, Evelina L; Sebastian, Patrick S; Saracho Bottero, María N; Martinez, Emilia I; Debárbora, Valeria N; Mangold, Atilio J; Guglielmone, Alberto A; Nava, Santiago

2018-04-27

The aim of this work was to generate knowledge on ecological aspects of Amblyomma sculptum in Argentina, such as seasonal dynamics, geographical range size, hosts, genetic diversity and phylogeography. Adult and immature A. sculptum ticks were collected in different localities of Argentina to know the geographical range size and hosts. The genetic diversity of this tick was studied through analyses of 16S rDNA sequences. To describe the seasonal dynamics, free-living ticks were monthly collected from October 2013 to October 2015. A. sculptum shows a marked ecological preference for Chaco Húmedo eco-region and "Albardones" forest of the great rivers in the wetlands in the Chaco Biogeographical Province, and for Selvas Pedemontanas and Selva Montana in the Yungas Biogeographical Province. This species has low host specificity, and it has large wild and domestic mammals as principal hosts to both immature and adult stages. Amblyomma sculptum is characterized by a one-year life cycle. Larvae peak in early winter, nymphs peaked during mid-spring, and adults during late summer and mid-summer. The genetic divergence was low and the total genetic variability was attributable to differences among populations. This fact could be associated to stochastics process linked to micro-habitat variations that could produce a partial restriction to gene flow among populations. The geographic regions do not contribute much to explain the A. sculptum population genetic structure, with an ancestral haplotype present in most populations, which gives rise to the rest of the haplotypes denoting a rapid population expansion. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Quantitative Assessment of Transportation Network Vulnerability with Dynamic Traffic Simulation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shekar, Venkateswaran; Fiondella, Lance; Chatterjee, Samrat

Transportation networks are critical to the social and economic function of nations. Given the continuing increase in the populations of cities throughout the world, the criticality of transportation infrastructure is expected to increase. Thus, it is ever more important to mitigate congestion as well as to assess the impact disruptions would have on individuals who depend on transportation for their work and livelihood. Moreover, several government organizations are responsible for ensuring transportation networks are available despite the constant threat of natural disasters and terrorist activities. Most of the previous transportation network vulnerability research has been performed in the context ofmore » static traffic models, many of which are formulated as traditional optimization problems. However, transportation networks are dynamic because their usage varies over time. Thus, more appropriate methods to characterize the vulnerability of transportation networks should consider their dynamic properties. This paper presents a quantitative approach to assess the vulnerability of a transportation network to disruptions with methods from traffic simulation. Our approach can prioritize the critical links over time and is generalizable to the case where both link and node disruptions are of concern. We illustrate the approach through a series of examples. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides quantitative insight into the time varying criticality of links. Such an approach could be used as the objective function of less traditional optimization methods that use simulation and other techniques to evaluate the relative utility of a particular network defense to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.« less

Inferring multi-scale neural mechanisms with brain network modelling

PubMed Central

Schirner, Michael; McIntosh, Anthony Randal; Jirsa, Viktor; Deco, Gustavo

2018-01-01

The neurophysiological processes underlying non-invasive brain activity measurements are incompletely understood. Here, we developed a connectome-based brain network model that integrates individual structural and functional data with neural population dynamics to support multi-scale neurophysiological inference. Simulated populations were linked by structural connectivity and, as a novelty, driven by electroencephalography (EEG) source activity. Simulations not only predicted subjects' individual resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series and spatial network topologies over 20 minutes of activity, but more importantly, they also revealed precise neurophysiological mechanisms that underlie and link six empirical observations from different scales and modalities: (1) resting-state fMRI oscillations, (2) functional connectivity networks, (3) excitation-inhibition balance, (4, 5) inverse relationships between α-rhythms, spike-firing and fMRI on short and long time scales, and (6) fMRI power-law scaling. These findings underscore the potential of this new modelling framework for general inference and integration of neurophysiological knowledge to complement empirical studies. PMID:29308767

Tularemia Outbreaks and Common Vole (Microtus arvalis) Irruptive Population Dynamics in Northwestern Spain, 1997-2014.

PubMed

Luque-Larena, Juan José; Mougeot, François; Roig, Dolors Vidal; Lambin, Xavier; Rodríguez-Pastor, Ruth; Rodríguez-Valín, Elena; Anda, Pedro; Escudero, Raquel

2015-09-01

During the last decades, large tularemia outbreaks in humans have coincided in time and space with population outbreaks of common voles in northwestern Spain, leading us to hypothesize that this rodent species acts as a key spillover agent of Francisella tularensis in the region. Here, we evaluate for the first time a potential link between irruptive vole numbers and human tularemia outbreaks in Spain. We compiled vole abundance estimates obtained through live-trapping monitoring studies and official reports of human tularemia cases during the period 1997-2014. We confirm a significant positive association between yearly cases of tularemia infection in humans and vole abundance. High vole densities during outbreaks (up to 1000 voles/hectare) may therefore enhance disease transmission and spillover contamination in the environment. If this ecological link is further confirmed, the apparent multiannual cyclicity of common vole outbreaks might provide a basis for forecasting the risk of tularemia outbreaks in northwestern Spain.

The effect of inertial coupling in the dynamics and control of flexible robotic manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tesar, Delbert; Curran, Carol Cockrell; Graves, Philip Lee

1988-01-01

A general model of the dynamics of flexible robotic manipulators is presented, including the gross motion of the links, the vibrations of the links and joints, and the dynamic coupling between the gross motions and vibrations. The vibrations in the links may be modeled using lumped parameters, truncated modal summation, a component mode synthesis method, or a mixture of these methods. The local link inertia matrix is derived to obtain the coupling terms between the gross motion of the link and the vibrations of the link. Coupling between the motions of the links results from the kinematic model, which utilizes the method of kinematic influence. The model is used to simulate the dynamics of a flexible space-based robotic manipulator which is attached to a spacecraft, and is free to move with respect to the inertial reference frame. This model may be used to study the dynamic response of the manipulator to the motions of its joints, or to externally applied disturbances.

Genomic signature of natural and anthropogenic stress in wild populations of the waterflea Daphnia magna: validation in space, time and experimental evolution.

PubMed

Orsini, Luisa; Spanier, Katina I; DE Meester, Luc

2012-05-01

Natural populations are confronted with multiple selection pressures resulting in a mosaic of environmental stressors at the landscape level. Identifying the genetic underpinning of adaptation to these complex selection environments and assigning causes of natural selection within multidimensional selection regimes in the wild is challenging. The water flea Daphnia is a renowned ecological model system with its well-documented ecology, the possibility to analyse subfossil dormant egg banks and the short generation time allowing an experimental evolution approach. Capitalizing on the strengths of this model system, we here link candidate genome regions to three selection pressures, known to induce micro-evolutionary responses in Daphnia magna: fish predation, parasitism and land use. Using a genome scan approach in space, time and experimental evolution trials, we provide solid evidence of selection at the genome level under well-characterized environmental gradients in the wild and identify candidate genes linked to the three environmental stressors. Our study reveals differential selection at the genome level in Daphnia populations and provides evidence for repeatable patterns of local adaptation in a geographic mosaic of environmental stressors fuelled by standing genetic variation. Our results imply high evolutionary potential of local populations, which is relevant to understand the dynamics of trait changes in natural populations and their impact on community and ecosystem responses through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

2005-01-01

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Linking river management to species conservation using dynamic landscape scale models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Buell, Gary R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hughes, W. Brian; Jacobson, Robert B.; Jones, John W.; Jones, S.A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Peterson, James T.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Schindler, J. Stephen; Shea, C.; Weaver, J.D.

2013-01-01

Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water management decisions. We present a framework and methods for integrating hydrology, geographic context and metapopulation processes to simulate effects of changes in streamflow on fish occupancy dynamics across a landscape of interconnected stream segments. We illustrate this approach using a 482 km2 catchment in the southeastern US supporting 50 or more stream fish species. A spatially distributed, deterministic and physically based hydrologic model is used to simulate daily streamflow for sub-basins composing the catchment. We use geographic data to characterize stream segments with respect to channel size, confinement, position and connectedness within the stream network. Simulated streamflow dynamics are then applied to model fish metapopulation dynamics in stream segments, using hypothesized effects of streamflow magnitude and variability on population processes, conditioned by channel characteristics. The resulting time series simulate spatially explicit, annual changes in species occurrences or assemblage metrics (e.g. species richness) across the catchment as outcomes of management scenarios. Sensitivity analyses using alternative, plausible links between streamflow components and metapopulation processes, or allowing for alternative modes of fish dispersal, demonstrate large effects of ecological uncertainty on model outcomes and highlight needed research and monitoring. Nonetheless, with uncertainties explicitly acknowledged, dynamic, landscape-scale simulations may prove useful for quantitatively comparing river management alternatives with respect to species conservation.

Structural and Functional Studies on the Fusion and Attachment Envelope Glycoproteins of Nipah Virus and Hendra Virus

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

epidemics, caused by Vibrio cholerae have been linked to specific seasons and biogeographical zones. In addition, the population dynamics of V. cholerae in...Climactic warming has directly affected the prevalence of RVFV by prolonging survival rates of the vector involved in disease transmission. 3 Cholera ...climate variability. The study of V. cholerae represents a model system of how climate change affects pathogens (2). Personal human behavior has

Specificity and timescales of cortical adaptation as inferences about natural movie statistics.

PubMed

Snow, Michoel; Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Schwartz, Odelia

2016-10-01

Adaptation is a phenomenological umbrella term under which a variety of temporal contextual effects are grouped. Previous models have shown that some aspects of visual adaptation reflect optimal processing of dynamic visual inputs, suggesting that adaptation should be tuned to the properties of natural visual inputs. However, the link between natural dynamic inputs and adaptation is poorly understood. Here, we extend a previously developed Bayesian modeling framework for spatial contextual effects to the temporal domain. The model learns temporal statistical regularities of natural movies and links these statistics to adaptation in primary visual cortex via divisive normalization, a ubiquitous neural computation. In particular, the model divisively normalizes the present visual input by the past visual inputs only to the degree that these are inferred to be statistically dependent. We show that this flexible form of normalization reproduces classical findings on how brief adaptation affects neuronal selectivity. Furthermore, prior knowledge acquired by the Bayesian model from natural movies can be modified by prolonged exposure to novel visual stimuli. We show that this updating can explain classical results on contrast adaptation. We also simulate the recent finding that adaptation maintains population homeostasis, namely, a balanced level of activity across a population of neurons with different orientation preferences. Consistent with previous disparate observations, our work further clarifies the influence of stimulus-specific and neuronal-specific normalization signals in adaptation.

Specificity and timescales of cortical adaptation as inferences about natural movie statistics

PubMed Central

Snow, Michoel; Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Schwartz, Odelia

2016-01-01

Adaptation is a phenomenological umbrella term under which a variety of temporal contextual effects are grouped. Previous models have shown that some aspects of visual adaptation reflect optimal processing of dynamic visual inputs, suggesting that adaptation should be tuned to the properties of natural visual inputs. However, the link between natural dynamic inputs and adaptation is poorly understood. Here, we extend a previously developed Bayesian modeling framework for spatial contextual effects to the temporal domain. The model learns temporal statistical regularities of natural movies and links these statistics to adaptation in primary visual cortex via divisive normalization, a ubiquitous neural computation. In particular, the model divisively normalizes the present visual input by the past visual inputs only to the degree that these are inferred to be statistically dependent. We show that this flexible form of normalization reproduces classical findings on how brief adaptation affects neuronal selectivity. Furthermore, prior knowledge acquired by the Bayesian model from natural movies can be modified by prolonged exposure to novel visual stimuli. We show that this updating can explain classical results on contrast adaptation. We also simulate the recent finding that adaptation maintains population homeostasis, namely, a balanced level of activity across a population of neurons with different orientation preferences. Consistent with previous disparate observations, our work further clarifies the influence of stimulus-specific and neuronal-specific normalization signals in adaptation. PMID:27699416

Unification of small and large time scales for biological evolution: deviations from power law.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Debashish; Stauffer, Dietrich; Kunwar, Ambarish

2003-02-14

We develop a unified model that describes both "micro" and "macro" evolutions within a single theoretical framework. The ecosystem is described as a dynamic network; the population dynamics at each node of this network describes the "microevolution" over ecological time scales (i.e., birth, ageing, and natural death of individual organisms), while the appearance of new nodes, the slow changes of the links, and the disappearance of existing nodes accounts for the "macroevolution" over geological time scales (i.e., the origination, evolution, and extinction of species). In contrast to several earlier claims in the literature, we observe strong deviations from power law in the regime of long lifetimes.

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness

PubMed Central

Saracco, James F.; Radley, Paul; Pyle, Peter; Rowan, Erin; Taylor, Ron; Helton, Lauren

2016-01-01

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades. PMID:26863013

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness.

PubMed

Saracco, James F; Radley, Paul; Pyle, Peter; Rowan, Erin; Taylor, Ron; Helton, Lauren

2016-01-01

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades.

Most Undirected Random Graphs Are Amplifiers of Selection for Birth-Death Dynamics, but Suppressors of Selection for Death-Birth Dynamics.

PubMed

Hindersin, Laura; Traulsen, Arne

2015-11-01

We analyze evolutionary dynamics on graphs, where the nodes represent individuals of a population. The links of a node describe which other individuals can be displaced by the offspring of the individual on that node. Amplifiers of selection are graphs for which the fixation probability is increased for advantageous mutants and decreased for disadvantageous mutants. A few examples of such amplifiers have been developed, but so far it is unclear how many such structures exist and how to construct them. Here, we show that almost any undirected random graph is an amplifier of selection for Birth-death updating, where an individual is selected to reproduce with probability proportional to its fitness and one of its neighbors is replaced by that offspring at random. If we instead focus on death-Birth updating, in which a random individual is removed and its neighbors compete for the empty spot, then the same ensemble of graphs consists of almost only suppressors of selection for which the fixation probability is decreased for advantageous mutants and increased for disadvantageous mutants. Thus, the impact of population structure on evolutionary dynamics is a subtle issue that will depend on seemingly minor details of the underlying evolutionary process.

The population ecology of male gametophytes: the link between pollination and seed production.

PubMed

Harder, Lawrence D; Aizen, Marcelo A; Richards, Shane A

2016-05-01

The fate of male gametophytes after pollen reaches stigmas links pollination to ovule fertilisation, governing subsequent siring success and seed production. Although male gametophyte performance primarily involves cellular processes, an ecological analogy may expose insights into the nature and implications of male gametophyte success. We elaborate this analogy theoretically and present empirical examples that illustrate associated insights. Specifically, we consider pollen loads on stigmas as localised populations subject to density-independent mortality and density-dependent processes as they traverse complex stylar environments. Different combinations of the timing of pollen-tube access to limiting stylar resources (simultaneous or sequential), the tube distribution among resources (repulsed or random) and the timing of density-independent mortality relative to competition (before or after) create signature relations of mean pollen-tube success and its variation among pistils to pollen receipt. Using novel nonlinear regression analyses (two-moment regression), we illustrate contrasting relations for two species, demonstrating that variety in these relations is a feature of reproductive diversity among angiosperms, rather than merely a theoretical curiosity. Thus, the details of male gametophyte ecology should shape sporophyte reproductive success and hence the dynamics and structure of angiosperm populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

CRISPR Associated Diversity within a Population of Sulfolobus islandicus

PubMed Central

Held, Nicole L.; Herrera, Alfa; Cadillo-Quiroz, Hinsby; Whitaker, Rachel J.

2010-01-01

Background Predator-prey models for virus-host interactions predict that viruses will cause oscillations of microbial host densities due to an arms race between resistance and virulence. A new form of microbial resistance, CRISPRs (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) are a rapidly evolving, sequence-specific immunity mechanism in which a short piece of invading viral DNA is inserted into the host's chromosome, thereby rendering the host resistant to further infection. Few studies have linked this form of resistance to population dynamics in natural microbial populations. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined sequence diversity in 39 strains of the archeaon Sulfolobus islandicus from a single, isolated hot spring from Kamchatka, Russia to determine the effects of CRISPR immunity on microbial population dynamics. First, multiple housekeeping genetic markers identify a large clonal group of identical genotypes coexisting with a diverse set of rare genotypes. Second, the sequence-specific CRISPR spacer arrays split the large group of isolates into two very different groups and reveal extensive diversity and no evidence for dominance of a single clone within the population. Conclusions/Significance The evenness of resistance genotypes found within this population of S. islandicus is indicative of a lack of strain dominance, in contrast to the prediction for a resistant strain in a simple predator-prey interaction. Based on evidence for the independent acquisition of resistant sequences, we hypothesize that CRISPR mediated clonal interference between resistant strains promotes and maintains diversity in this natural population. PMID:20927396

Linking movement and oviposition behaviour to spatial population distribution in the tree hole mosquito Ochlerotatus triseriatus.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M

2008-01-01

1. Researchers often use the spatial distribution of insect offspring as a measure of adult oviposition preferences, and then make conclusions about the consequences of these preferences for population growth and the relationship between life-history traits (e.g. oviposition preference and offspring performance). However, several processes other than oviposition preference can generate spatial patterns of offspring density (e.g. dispersal limitations, spatially heterogeneous mortality rates). Incorrectly assuming that offspring distributions reflect oviposition preferences may therefore compromise our ability to understand the mechanisms determining population distributions and the relationship between life-history traits. 2. The purpose of this study was to perform an empirical study at the whole-system scale to examine the movement and oviposition behaviours of the eastern tree hole mosquito Ochlerotatus triseriatus (Say) and test the importance of these behaviours in determining population distribution relative to other mechanisms. 3. A mark-release-recapture experiment was performed to distinguish among the following alternative hypotheses that may explain a previously observed aggregated distribution of tree hole mosquito offspring: (H(1)) mosquitoes prefer habitats with particular vegetation characteristics and these preferences determine the distribution of their offspring; (H(2)) mosquitoes distribute their eggs randomly or evenly throughout their environment, but spatial differences in developmental success generate an aggregated pattern of larval density; (H(3)) mosquitoes randomly colonize habitats, but have limited dispersal capability causing them to distribute offspring where founder populations were established; (H(4)) wind or other environmental factors may lead to passive aggregation, or spatial heterogeneity in adult mortality (H(5)), rather than dispersal, generates clumped offspring distributions. 4. Results indicate that the distribution of tree hole mosquito larvae is determined in part by adult habitat selection (H(1)), but do not exclude additional effects from passive aggregation (H(4)), or spatial patterns in adult mortality (H(5)). 5. This research illustrates the importance of studying oviposition behaviour at the population scale to better evaluate its relative importance in determining population distribution and dynamics. Moreover, this study demonstrates the importance of linking behavioural and population dynamics for understanding evolutionary relationships among life-history traits (e.g. preference and offspring performance) and predicting when behaviour will be important in determining population phenomena.

Global attractors and extinction dynamics of cyclically competing species.

PubMed

Rulands, Steffen; Zielinski, Alejandro; Frey, Erwin

2013-05-01

Transitions to absorbing states are of fundamental importance in nonequilibrium physics as well as ecology. In ecology, absorbing states correspond to the extinction of species. We here study the spatial population dynamics of three cyclically interacting species. The interaction scheme comprises both direct competition between species as in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, and separated selection and reproduction processes as in the May-Leonard model. We show that the dynamic processes leading to the transient maintenance of biodiversity are closely linked to attractors of the nonlinear dynamics for the overall species' concentrations. The characteristics of these global attractors change qualitatively at certain threshold values of the mobility and depend on the relative strength of the different types of competition between species. They give information about the scaling of extinction times with the system size and thereby the stability of biodiversity. We define an effective free energy as the negative logarithm of the probability to find the system in a specific global state before reaching one of the absorbing states. The global attractors then correspond to minima of this effective energy landscape and determine the most probable values for the species' global concentrations. As in equilibrium thermodynamics, qualitative changes in the effective free energy landscape indicate and characterize the underlying nonequilibrium phase transitions. We provide the complete phase diagrams for the population dynamics and give a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics and routes to extinction in the respective phases.

Do we have to choose between feeding the human population and conserving nature? Modelling the global dependence of people on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Cazalis, Victor; Loreau, Michel; Henderson, Kirsten

2018-09-01

The ability of the human population to continue growing depends strongly on the ecosystem services provided by nature. Nature, however, is becoming more and more degraded as the number of individuals increases, which could potentially threaten the future well-being of the human population. We use a dynamic model to conceptualise links between the global proportion of natural habitats and human demography, through four categories of ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural recreational and informational) to investigate the common future of nature and humanity in terms of size and well-being. Our model shows that there is generally a trade-off between the quality of life and human population size and identifies four short-term scenarios, corresponding to three long-term steady states of the model. First, human population could experience declines if nature becomes too degraded and regulating services diminish; second the majority of the population could be in a famine state, where the population continues to grow with minimal food provision. Between these scenarios, a desirable future scenario emerges from the model. It occurs if humans convert enough land to feed all the population, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we find a fourth scenario, which combines famine and a decline in the population because of an overexploitation of land leading to a decrease in food production. Human demography is embedded in natural dynamics; the two factors should be considered together if we are to identify a desirable future for both nature and humans. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Population and crisis. Economic inflexibility or demographic subordination].

PubMed

Morelos, J B

1989-01-01

Much speculation, fact-based and subjective, has centered on the links between population and economic crisis, and between population and progress. In the past, famines directly affected the size and dynamics of population in affected regions, and such cycles inspired theories that regarded subsistence as the adjustment mechanism for demographic regimes. Population has alternatively been viewed as a crucial factor of production and a force for modernization and progress. After World War I and the Great Depression, many economists believed that population growth would be indispensable for renewing economic expansion. The favorable view of population growth in Mexico led to measures to repatriate emigrants, attract immigrants, and improve health conditions. The gross national product grew by around 6.0% annually on average between 1940 and 1960, and the per capita GNP by about 3%. Demographic dynamics acquired momentum by the 1960s, with high growth rates, a young age structure, considerable demographic inertia, and relative predominance of the urban population. Indications began to appear that a primarily economic solution to achieving full development would be unlikely. The polarization of development, distributive insufficiency, distortions in exchange relations for agricultural products, and incorporation of inappropriate technologies were factors decreasing the ability of the economy to respond adequately to population demands. National development was insufficient to meet growing demographic pressures in the labor market, educational system, housing, and urban services. The adjustment programs reduced even further the flexibility of the government to respond to pressures. Expectations for the future have been seriously compromised by the fall of real incomes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

In Silico Computational Transcriptomics Reveals Novel Endocrine Disruptors in Largemouth Bass ( Micropterus salmoides).

PubMed

Basili, Danilo; Zhang, Ji-Liang; Herbert, John; Kroll, Kevin; Denslow, Nancy D; Martyniuk, Christopher J; Falciani, Francesco; Antczak, Philipp

2018-06-15

In recent years, decreases in fish populations have been attributed, in part, to the effect of environmental chemicals on ovarian development. To understand the underlying molecular events we developed a dynamic model of ovary development linking gene transcription to key physiological end points, such as gonadosomatic index (GSI), plasma levels of estradiol (E2) and vitellogenin (VTG), in largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides). We were able to identify specific clusters of genes, which are affected at different stages of ovarian development. A subnetwork was identified that closely linked gene expression and physiological end points and by interrogating the Comparative Toxicogenomic Database (CTD), quercetin and tretinoin (ATRA) were identified as two potential candidates that may perturb this system. Predictions were validated by investigation of reproductive associated transcripts using qPCR in ovary and in the liver of both male and female largemouth bass treated after a single injection of quercetin and tretinoin (10 and 100 μg/kg). Both compounds were found to significantly alter the expression of some of these genes. Our findings support the use of omics and online repositories for identification of novel, yet untested, compounds. This is the first study of a dynamic model that links gene expression patterns across stages of ovarian development.

Mapping the conformational landscape of a dynamic enzyme by multitemperature and XFEL crystallography

PubMed Central

Keedy, Daniel A; Kenner, Lillian R; Warkentin, Matthew; Woldeyes, Rahel A; Hopkins, Jesse B; Thompson, Michael C; Brewster, Aaron S; Van Benschoten, Andrew H; Baxter, Elizabeth L; Uervirojnangkoorn, Monarin; McPhillips, Scott E; Song, Jinhu; Alonso-Mori, Roberto; Holton, James M; Weis, William I; Brunger, Axel T; Soltis, S Michael; Lemke, Henrik; Gonzalez, Ana; Sauter, Nicholas K; Cohen, Aina E; van den Bedem, Henry; Thorne, Robert E; Fraser, James S

2015-01-01

Determining the interconverting conformations of dynamic proteins in atomic detail is a major challenge for structural biology. Conformational heterogeneity in the active site of the dynamic enzyme cyclophilin A (CypA) has been previously linked to its catalytic function, but the extent to which the different conformations of these residues are correlated is unclear. Here we compare the conformational ensembles of CypA by multitemperature synchrotron crystallography and fixed-target X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) crystallography. The diffraction-before-destruction nature of XFEL experiments provides a radiation-damage-free view of the functionally important alternative conformations of CypA, confirming earlier synchrotron-based results. We monitored the temperature dependences of these alternative conformations with eight synchrotron datasets spanning 100-310 K. Multiconformer models show that many alternative conformations in CypA are populated only at 240 K and above, yet others remain populated or become populated at 180 K and below. These results point to a complex evolution of conformational heterogeneity between 180-–240 K that involves both thermal deactivation and solvent-driven arrest of protein motions in the crystal. The lack of a single shared conformational response to temperature within the dynamic active-site network provides evidence for a conformation shuffling model, in which exchange between rotamer states of a large aromatic ring in the middle of the network shifts the conformational ensemble for the other residues in the network. Together, our multitemperature analyses and XFEL data motivate a new generation of temperature- and time-resolved experiments to structurally characterize the dynamic underpinnings of protein function. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07574.001 PMID:26422513

Exploring neutral and adaptive processes in expanding populations of gilthead sea bream, Sparus aurata L., in the North-East Atlantic.

PubMed

Coscia, I; Vogiatzi, E; Kotoulas, G; Tsigenopoulos, C S; Mariani, S

2012-05-01

Recent studies in empirical population genetics have highlighted the importance of taking into account both neutral and adaptive genetic variation in characterizing microevolutionary dynamics. Here, we explore the genetic population structure and the footprints of selection in four populations of the warm-temperate coastal fish, the gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata), whose recent northward expansion has been linked to climate change. Samples were collected at four Atlantic locations, including Spain, Portugal, France and the South of Ireland, and genetically assayed using a suite of species-specific markers, including 15 putatively neutral microsatellites and 23 expressed sequence tag-linked markers, as well as a portion of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region. Two of the putatively neutral markers, Bld-10 and Ad-10, bore signatures of strong directional selection, particularly in the newly established Irish population, although the potential 'surfing effect' of rare alleles at the edge of the expansion front was also considered. Analyses after the removal of these loci suggest low but significant population structure likely affected by some degree of gene flow counteracting random genetic drift. No signal of historic divergence was detected at mtDNA. BLAST searches conducted with all 38 markers used failed to identify specific genomic regions associated to adaptive functions. However, the availability of genomic resources for this commercially valuable species is rapidly increasing, bringing us closer to the understanding of the interplay between selective and neutral evolutionary forces, shaping population divergence of an expanding species in a heterogeneous milieu.

Seasonality of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) on Terceira and Sao Jorge Islands, Azores, Portugal.

PubMed

Pimentel, R; Lopes, D J H; Mexia, A M M; Mumford, J D

2017-01-01

Population dynamics studies are very important for any area-wide control program as they provide detailed knowledge about the relationship of Medfly [Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann)] life cycle with host availability and abundance. The main goal of this study is to analyse seasonality of C. capitata in Terceira and Sao Jorge Islands (Azores archipelago) using field and laboratory data collected during (2010-2014) CABMEDMAC (MAC/3/A163) project. The results from Sao Jorge Island indicate significantly lower male/female ratio than on Terceira Island. This is an important finding specially regarding when stablishing the scenario parameters for a sterile insect technique application in each island. The population dynamics of C. capitata are generally linked with host fruit availability and abundance. However, on Terceira Island fruit infestation levels are not synchronized with the trap counts. For example, there was Medfly infestations in some fruits [e.g., Solanum mauritianum (Scop.)] while in the nearby traps there were no captures at the same time. From this perspective, it is important to denote the importance of wild invasive plants, on the population dynamics of C. capitata, as well important to consider the possibility of having different densities of traps according to the characteristics of each area in order to improve the network of traps surveillance's sensitivity on Terceira Island. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

Irregular spiking of pyramidal neurons organizes as scale-invariant neuronal avalanches in the awake state

PubMed Central

Bellay, Timothy; Klaus, Andreas; Seshadri, Saurav; Plenz, Dietmar

2015-01-01

Spontaneous fluctuations in neuronal activity emerge at many spatial and temporal scales in cortex. Population measures found these fluctuations to organize as scale-invariant neuronal avalanches, suggesting cortical dynamics to be critical. Macroscopic dynamics, though, depend on physiological states and are ambiguous as to their cellular composition, spatiotemporal origin, and contributions from synaptic input or action potential (AP) output. Here, we study spontaneous firing in pyramidal neurons (PNs) from rat superficial cortical layers in vivo and in vitro using 2-photon imaging. As the animal transitions from the anesthetized to awake state, spontaneous single neuron firing increases in irregularity and assembles into scale-invariant avalanches at the group level. In vitro spike avalanches emerged naturally yet required balanced excitation and inhibition. This demonstrates that neuronal avalanches are linked to the global physiological state of wakefulness and that cortical resting activity organizes as avalanches from firing of local PN groups to global population activity. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07224.001 PMID:26151674

Local excitation-inhibition ratio for synfire chain propagation in feed-forward neuronal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xinmeng; Yu, Haitao; Wang, Jiang; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yibin; Deng, Bin

2017-09-01

A leading hypothesis holds that spiking activity propagates along neuronal sub-populations which are connected in a feed-forward manner, and the propagation efficiency would be affected by the dynamics of sub-populations. In this paper, how the interaction between local excitation and inhibition effects on synfire chain propagation in feed-forward network (FFN) is investigated. The simulation results show that there is an appropriate excitation-inhibition (EI) ratio maximizing the performance of synfire chain propagation. The optimal EI ratio can significantly enhance the selectivity of FFN to synchronous signals, which thereby increases the stability to background noise. Moreover, the effect of network topology on synfire chain propagation is also investigated. It is found that synfire chain propagation can be maximized by an optimal interlayer linking probability. We also find that external noise is detrimental to synchrony propagation by inducing spiking jitter. The results presented in this paper may provide insights into the effects of network dynamics on neuronal computations.

The effect of travel loss on evolutionarily stable distributions of populations in space

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Wolkowicz, G.S.K.; Lou, Y.; Jiang, Y.; Novak, M.; Svanback, R.; Araujo, M.S.; Jo, Y.S.; Cleary, E.A.

2011-01-01

A key assumption of the ideal free distribution (IFD) is that there are no costs in moving between habitat patches. However, because many populations exhibit more or less continuous population movement between patches and traveling cost is a frequent factor, it is important to determine the effects of costs on expected population movement patterns and spatial distributions. We consider a food chain (tritrophic or bitrophic) in which one species moves between patches, with energy cost or mortality risk in movement. In the two-patch case, assuming forced movement in one direction, an evolutionarily stable strategy requires bidirectional movement, even if costs during movement are high. In the N-patch case, assuming that at least one patch is linked bidirectionally to all other patches, optimal movement rates can lead to source-sink dynamics where patches with negative growth rates are maintained by other patches with positive growth rates. As well, dispersal between patches is not balanced (even in the two-patch case), leading to a deviation from the IFD. Our results indicate that cost-associated forced movement can have important consequences for spatial metapopulation dynamics. Relevance to marine reserve design and the study of stream communities subject to drift is discussed. ?? 2011 by The University of Chicago.

Dynamic analysis and control of lightweight manipulators with flexible parallel link mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jeh Won

1991-01-01

The flexible parallel link mechanism is designed for increased rigidity to sustain the buckling when it carries a heavy payload. Compared to a one link flexible manipulator, a two link flexible manipulator, especially the flexible parallel mechanism, has more complicated characteristics in dynamics and control. The objective of this research is the theoretical analysis and the experimental verification of dynamics and control of a two link flexible manipulator with a flexible parallel link mechanism. Nonlinear equations of motion of the lightweight manipulator are derived by the Lagrangian method in symbolic form to better understand the structure of the dynamic model. A manipulator with a flexible parallel link mechanism is a constrained dynamic system whose equations are sensitive to numerical integration error. This constrained system is solved using singular value decomposition of the constraint Jacobian matrix. The discrepancies between the analytical model and the experiment are explained using a simplified and a detailed finite element model. The step response of the analytical model and the TREETOPS model match each other well. The nonlinear dynamics is studied using a sinusoidal excitation. The actuator dynamic effect on a flexible robot was investigated. The effects are explained by the root loci and the Bode plot theoretically and experimentally. For the base performance for the advanced control scheme, a simple decoupled feedback scheme is applied.

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.

PubMed

Townsend, Andrea K; Cooch, Evan G; Sillett, T Scott; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L; Holmes, Richard T; Webster, Michael S

2016-02-01

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population Density Modulates Drug Inhibition and Gives Rise to Potential Bistability of Treatment Outcomes for Bacterial Infections.

PubMed

Karslake, Jason; Maltas, Jeff; Brumm, Peter; Wood, Kevin B

2016-10-01

The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic as a function of the initial size of a microbial population. The IE has been observed in a wide range of bacteria, implying that antibiotic efficacy may depend on population density. Such density dependence could have dramatic effects on bacterial population dynamics and potential treatment strategies, but explicit measures of per capita growth as a function of density are generally not available. Instead, the IE measures MIC as a function of initial population size, and population density changes by many orders of magnitude on the timescale of the experiment. Therefore, the functional relationship between population density and antibiotic inhibition is generally not known, leaving many questions about the impact of the IE on different treatment strategies unanswered. To address these questions, here we directly measured real-time per capita growth of Enterococcus faecalis populations exposed to antibiotic at fixed population densities using multiplexed computer-automated culture devices. We show that density-dependent growth inhibition is pervasive for commonly used antibiotics, with some drugs showing increased inhibition and others decreased inhibition at high densities. For several drugs, the density dependence is mediated by changes in extracellular pH, a community-level phenomenon not previously linked with the IE. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate how this density dependence can modulate population dynamics in constant drug environments. Then, we illustrate how time-dependent dosing strategies can mitigate the negative effects of density-dependence. Finally, we show that these density effects lead to bistable treatment outcomes for a wide range of antibiotic concentrations in a pharmacological model of antibiotic treatment. As a result, infections exceeding a critical density often survive otherwise effective treatments.

Population Density Modulates Drug Inhibition and Gives Rise to Potential Bistability of Treatment Outcomes for Bacterial Infections

PubMed Central

Maltas, Jeff; Brumm, Peter; Wood, Kevin B.

2016-01-01

The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic as a function of the initial size of a microbial population. The IE has been observed in a wide range of bacteria, implying that antibiotic efficacy may depend on population density. Such density dependence could have dramatic effects on bacterial population dynamics and potential treatment strategies, but explicit measures of per capita growth as a function of density are generally not available. Instead, the IE measures MIC as a function of initial population size, and population density changes by many orders of magnitude on the timescale of the experiment. Therefore, the functional relationship between population density and antibiotic inhibition is generally not known, leaving many questions about the impact of the IE on different treatment strategies unanswered. To address these questions, here we directly measured real-time per capita growth of Enterococcus faecalis populations exposed to antibiotic at fixed population densities using multiplexed computer-automated culture devices. We show that density-dependent growth inhibition is pervasive for commonly used antibiotics, with some drugs showing increased inhibition and others decreased inhibition at high densities. For several drugs, the density dependence is mediated by changes in extracellular pH, a community-level phenomenon not previously linked with the IE. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate how this density dependence can modulate population dynamics in constant drug environments. Then, we illustrate how time-dependent dosing strategies can mitigate the negative effects of density-dependence. Finally, we show that these density effects lead to bistable treatment outcomes for a wide range of antibiotic concentrations in a pharmacological model of antibiotic treatment. As a result, infections exceeding a critical density often survive otherwise effective treatments. PMID:27764095

An NCME Instructional Module on Population Invariance in Linking and Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huggins, Anne C.; Penfield, Randall D.

2012-01-01

A goal for any linking or equating of two or more tests is that the linking function be invariant to the population used in conducting the linking or equating. Violations of population invariance in linking and equating jeopardize the fairness and validity of test scores, and pose particular problems for test-based accountability programs that…

Interactions between Snow Chemistry, Mercury Inputs and Microbial Population Dynamics in an Arctic Snowpack

PubMed Central

Larose, Catherine; Prestat, Emmanuel; Cecillon, Sébastien; Berger, Sibel; Malandain, Cédric; Lyon, Delina; Ferrari, Christophe; Schneider, Dominique; Dommergue, Aurélien; Vogel, Timothy M.

2013-01-01

We investigated the interactions between snowpack chemistry, mercury (Hg) contamination and microbial community structure and function in Arctic snow. Snowpack chemistry (inorganic and organic ions) including mercury (Hg) speciation was studied in samples collected during a two-month field study in a high Arctic site, Svalbard, Norway (79°N). Shifts in microbial community structure were determined by using a 16S rRNA gene phylogenetic microarray. We linked snowpack and meltwater chemistry to changes in microbial community structure by using co-inertia analyses (CIA) and explored changes in community function due to Hg contamination by q-PCR quantification of Hg-resistance genes in metagenomic samples. Based on the CIA, chemical and microbial data were linked (p = 0.006) with bioavailable Hg (BioHg) and methylmercury (MeHg) contributing significantly to the ordination of samples. Mercury was shown to influence community function with increases in merA gene copy numbers at low BioHg levels. Our results show that snowpacks can be considered as dynamic habitats with microbial and chemical components responding rapidly to environmental changes. PMID:24282515

Population genetics inside a cell: Mutations and mitochondrial genome maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyal, Sidhartha; Shraiman, Boris; Gottschling, Dan

2012-02-01

In realistic ecological and evolutionary systems natural selection acts on multiple levels, i.e. it acts on individuals as well as on collection of individuals. An understanding of evolutionary dynamics of such systems is limited in large part due to the lack of experimental systems that can challenge theoretical models. Mitochondrial genomes (mtDNA) are subjected to selection acting on cellular as well as organelle levels. It is well accepted that mtDNA in yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is unstable and can degrade over time scales comparable to yeast cell division time. We utilize a recent technology designed in Gottschling lab to extract DNA from populations of aged yeast cells and deep sequencing to characterize mtDNA variation in a population of young and old cells. In tandem, we developed a stochastic model that includes the essential features of mitochondrial biology that provides a null model for expected mtDNA variation. Overall, we find approximately 2% of the polymorphic loci that show significant increase in frequency as cells age providing direct evidence for organelle level selection. Such quantitative study of mtDNA dynamics is absolutely essential to understand the propagation of mtDNA mutations linked to a spectrum of age-related diseases in humans.

Order parameter analysis of synchronization transitions on star networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hong-Bin; Sun, Yu-Ting; Gao, Jian; Xu, Can; Zheng, Zhi-Gang

2017-12-01

The collective behaviors of populations of coupled oscillators have attracted significant attention in recent years. In this paper, an order parameter approach is proposed to study the low-dimensional dynamical mechanism of collective synchronizations, by adopting the star-topology of coupled oscillators as a prototype system. The order parameter equation of star-linked phase oscillators can be obtained in terms of the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, Ott-Antonsen ansatz, and the ensemble order parameter approach. Different solutions of the order parameter equation correspond to the diverse collective states, and different bifurcations reveal various transitions among these collective states. The properties of various transitions in the star-network model are revealed by using tools of nonlinear dynamics such as time reversibility analysis and linear stability analysis.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Population dynamics, information transfer, and spatial organization in a chemical reaction network under spatial confinement and crowding conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellesia, Giovanni; Bales, Benjamin B.

2016-10-01

We investigate, via Brownian dynamics simulations, the reaction dynamics of a generic, nonlinear chemical network under spatial confinement and crowding conditions. In detail, the Willamowski-Rossler chemical reaction system has been "extended" and considered as a prototype reaction-diffusion system. Our results are potentially relevant to a number of open problems in biophysics and biochemistry, such as the synthesis of primitive cellular units (protocells) and the definition of their role in the chemical origin of life and the characterization of vesicle-mediated drug delivery processes. More generally, the computational approach presented in this work makes the case for the use of spatial stochastic simulation methods for the study of biochemical networks in vivo where the "well-mixed" approximation is invalid and both thermal and intrinsic fluctuations linked to the possible presence of molecular species in low number copies cannot be averaged out.

Neural mechanisms of movement planning: motor cortex and beyond.

PubMed

Svoboda, Karel; Li, Nuo

2018-04-01

Neurons in motor cortex and connected brain regions fire in anticipation of specific movements, long before movement occurs. This neural activity reflects internal processes by which the brain plans and executes volitional movements. The study of motor planning offers an opportunity to understand how the structure and dynamics of neural circuits support persistent internal states and how these states influence behavior. Recent advances in large-scale neural recordings are beginning to decipher the relationship of the dynamics of populations of neurons during motor planning and movements. New behavioral tasks in rodents, together with quantified perturbations, link dynamics in specific nodes of neural circuits to behavior. These studies reveal a neural network distributed across multiple brain regions that collectively supports motor planning. We review recent advances and highlight areas where further work is needed to achieve a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying motor planning and related cognitive processes. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Agreement dynamics on interaction networks with diverse topologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrat, Alain; Baronchelli, Andrea; Dall'Asta, Luca; Loreto, Vittorio

2007-06-01

We review the behavior of a recently introduced model of agreement dynamics, called the "Naming Game." This model describes the self-organized emergence of linguistic conventions and the establishment of simple communication systems in a population of agents with pairwise local interactions. The mechanisms of convergence towards agreement strongly depend on the network of possible interactions between the agents. In particular, the mean-field case in which all agents communicate with all the others is not efficient, since a large temporary memory is requested for the agents. On the other hand, regular lattice topologies lead to a fast local convergence but to a slow global dynamics similar to coarsening phenomena. The embedding of the agents in a small-world network represents an interesting tradeoff: a local consensus is easily reached, while the long-range links allow to bypass coarsening-like convergence. We also consider alternative adaptive strategies which can lead to faster global convergence.

Inbreeding depression in self-incompatible North-American Arabidopsis lyrata: disentangling genomic and S-locus-specific genetic load

PubMed Central

Stift, M; Hunter, B D; Shaw, B; Adam, A; Hoebe, P N; Mable, B K

2013-01-01

Newly formed selfing lineages may express recessive genetic load and suffer inbreeding depression. This can have a genome-wide genetic basis, or be due to loci linked to genes under balancing selection. Understanding the genetic architecture of inbreeding depression is important in the context of the maintenance of self-incompatibility and understanding the evolutionary dynamics of S-alleles. We addressed this using North-American subspecies of Arabidopsis lyrata. This species is normally self-incompatible and outcrossing, but some populations have undergone a transition to selfing. The goals of this study were to: (1) quantify the strength of inbreeding depression in North-American populations of A. lyrata; and (2) disentangle the relative contribution of S-linked genetic load compared with overall inbreeding depression. We enforced selfing in self-incompatible plants with known S-locus genotype by treatment with CO2, and compared the performance of selfed vs outcrossed progeny. We found significant inbreeding depression for germination rate (δ=0.33), survival rate to 4 weeks (δ=0.45) and early growth (δ=0.07), but not for flowering rate. For two out of four S-alleles in our design, we detected significant S-linked load reflected by an under-representation of S-locus homozygotes in selfed progeny. The presence or absence of S-linked load could not be explained by the dominance level of S-alleles. Instead, the random nature of the mutation process may explain differences in the recessive deleterious load among lineages. PMID:22892638

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Native American depopulation, reforestation, and fire regimes in the Southwest United States, 1492-1900 CE.

PubMed

Liebmann, Matthew J; Farella, Joshua; Roos, Christopher I; Stack, Adam; Martini, Sarah; Swetnam, Thomas W

2016-02-09

Native American populations declined between 1492 and 1900 CE, instigated by the European colonization of the Americas. However, the magnitude, tempo, and ecological effects of this depopulation remain the source of enduring debates. Recently, scholars have linked indigenous demographic decline, Neotropical reforestation, and shifting fire regimes to global changes in climate, atmosphere, and the Early Anthropocene hypothesis. In light of these studies, we assess these processes in conifer-dominated forests of the Southwest United States. We compare light detection and ranging data, archaeology, dendrochronology, and historical records from the Jemez Province of New Mexico to quantify population losses, establish dates of depopulation events, and determine the extent and timing of forest regrowth and fire regimes between 1492 and 1900. We present a new formula for the estimation of Pueblo population based on architectural remains and apply this formula to 18 archaeological sites in the Jemez Province. A dendrochronological study of remnant wood establishes dates of terminal occupation at these sites. By combining our results with historical records, we report a model of pre- and post-Columbian population dynamics in the Jemez Province. Our results indicate that the indigenous population of the Jemez Province declined by 87% following European colonization but that this reduction occurred nearly a century after initial contact. Depopulation also triggered an increase in the frequency of extensive surface fires between 1640 and 1900. Ultimately, this study illustrates the quality of integrated archaeological and paleoecological data needed to assess the links between Native American population decline and ecological change after European contact.

Native American depopulation, reforestation, and fire regimes in the Southwest United States, 1492–1900 CE

PubMed Central

Liebmann, Matthew J.; Farella, Joshua; Roos, Christopher I.; Stack, Adam; Martini, Sarah

2016-01-01

Native American populations declined between 1492 and 1900 CE, instigated by the European colonization of the Americas. However, the magnitude, tempo, and ecological effects of this depopulation remain the source of enduring debates. Recently, scholars have linked indigenous demographic decline, Neotropical reforestation, and shifting fire regimes to global changes in climate, atmosphere, and the Early Anthropocene hypothesis. In light of these studies, we assess these processes in conifer-dominated forests of the Southwest United States. We compare light detection and ranging data, archaeology, dendrochronology, and historical records from the Jemez Province of New Mexico to quantify population losses, establish dates of depopulation events, and determine the extent and timing of forest regrowth and fire regimes between 1492 and 1900. We present a new formula for the estimation of Pueblo population based on architectural remains and apply this formula to 18 archaeological sites in the Jemez Province. A dendrochronological study of remnant wood establishes dates of terminal occupation at these sites. By combining our results with historical records, we report a model of pre- and post-Columbian population dynamics in the Jemez Province. Our results indicate that the indigenous population of the Jemez Province declined by 87% following European colonization but that this reduction occurred nearly a century after initial contact. Depopulation also triggered an increase in the frequency of extensive surface fires between 1640 and 1900. Ultimately, this study illustrates the quality of integrated archaeological and paleoecological data needed to assess the links between Native American population decline and ecological change after European contact. PMID:26811459

Incorporating non-equilibrium dynamics into demographic history inferences of a migratory marine species.

PubMed

Carroll, E L; Alderman, R; Bannister, J L; Bérubé, M; Best, P B; Boren, L; Baker, C S; Constantine, R; Findlay, K; Harcourt, R; Lemaire, L; Palsbøll, P J; Patenaude, N J; Rowntree, V J; Seger, J; Steel, D; Valenzuela, L O; Watson, M; Gaggiotti, O E

2018-05-03

Understanding how dispersal and gene flow link geographically separated the populations over evolutionary history is challenging, particularly in migratory marine species. In southern right whales (SRWs, Eubalaena australis), patterns of genetic diversity are likely influenced by the glacial climate cycle and recent history of whaling. Here we use a dataset of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences (n = 1327) and nuclear markers (17 microsatellite loci, n = 222) from major wintering grounds to investigate circumpolar population structure, historical demography and effective population size. Analyses of nuclear genetic variation identify two population clusters that correspond to the South Atlantic and Indo-Pacific ocean basins that have similar effective breeder estimates. In contrast, all wintering grounds show significant differentiation for mtDNA, but no sex-biased dispersal was detected using the microsatellite genotypes. An approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach with microsatellite markers compared the scenarios with gene flow through time, or isolation and secondary contact between ocean basins, while modelling declines in abundance linked to whaling. Secondary-contact scenarios yield the highest posterior probabilities, implying that populations in different ocean basins were largely isolated and came into secondary contact within the last 25,000 years, but the role of whaling in changes in genetic diversity and gene flow over recent generations could not be resolved. We hypothesise that these findings are driven by factors that promote isolation, such as female philopatry, and factors that could promote dispersal, such as oceanographic changes. These findings highlight the application of ABC approaches to infer the connectivity in mobile species with complex population histories and, currently, low levels of differentiation.

Controlling Hydrogel Mechanics via Bio-Inspired Polymer-Nanoparticle Bond Dynamics.

PubMed

Li, Qiaochu; Barrett, Devin G; Messersmith, Phillip B; Holten-Andersen, Niels

2016-01-26

Interactions between polymer molecules and inorganic nanoparticles can play a dominant role in nanocomposite material mechanics, yet control of such interfacial interaction dynamics remains a significant challenge particularly in water. This study presents insights on how to engineer hydrogel material mechanics via nanoparticle interface-controlled cross-link dynamics. Inspired by the adhesive chemistry in mussel threads, we have incorporated iron oxide nanoparticles (Fe3O4 NPs) into a catechol-modified polymer network to obtain hydrogels cross-linked via reversible metal-coordination bonds at Fe3O4 NP surfaces. Unique material mechanics result from the supra-molecular cross-link structure dynamics in the gels; in contrast to the previously reported fluid-like dynamics of transient catechol-Fe(3+) cross-links, the catechol-Fe3O4 NP structures provide solid-like yet reversible hydrogel mechanics. The structurally controlled hierarchical mechanics presented here suggest how to develop hydrogels with remote-controlled self-healing dynamics.

Linking social and pathogen transmission networks using microbial genetics in giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis).

PubMed

VanderWaal, Kimberly L; Atwill, Edward R; Isbell, Lynne A; McCowan, Brenda

2014-03-01

Although network analysis has drawn considerable attention as a promising tool for disease ecology, empirical research has been hindered by limitations in detecting the occurrence of pathogen transmission (who transmitted to whom) within social networks. Using a novel approach, we utilize the genetics of a diverse microbe, Escherichia coli, to infer where direct or indirect transmission has occurred and use these data to construct transmission networks for a wild giraffe population (Giraffe camelopardalis). Individuals were considered to be a part of the same transmission chain and were interlinked in the transmission network if they shared genetic subtypes of E. coli. By using microbial genetics to quantify who transmits to whom independently from the behavioural data on who is in contact with whom, we were able to directly investigate how the structure of contact networks influences the structure of the transmission network. To distinguish between the effects of social and environmental contact on transmission dynamics, the transmission network was compared with two separate contact networks defined from the behavioural data: a social network based on association patterns, and a spatial network based on patterns of home-range overlap among individuals. We found that links in the transmission network were more likely to occur between individuals that were strongly linked in the social network. Furthermore, individuals that had more numerous connections or that occupied 'bottleneck' positions in the social network tended to occupy similar positions in the transmission network. No similar correlations were observed between the spatial and transmission networks. This indicates that an individual's social network position is predictive of transmission network position, which has implications for identifying individuals that function as super-spreaders or transmission bottlenecks in the population. These results emphasize the importance of association patterns in understanding transmission dynamics, even for environmentally transmitted microbes like E. coli. This study is the first to use microbial genetics to construct and analyse transmission networks in a wildlife population and highlights the potential utility of an approach integrating microbial genetics with network analysis. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirchi, Ali; Watkins, David W.; Huckins, Casey J.; Madani, Kaveh; Hjorth, Peder

2014-09-01

Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores the urgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems. Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecological systems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomic system, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype. Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integrity through alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent with the G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraints rather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecological considerations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacks and potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting a shift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associated long-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamics and estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy levers for implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away from growth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutional reform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches.

Mark-recapture with multiple, non-invasive marks.

PubMed

Bonner, Simon J; Holmberg, Jason

2013-09-01

Non-invasive marks, including pigmentation patterns, acquired scars, and genetic markers, are often used to identify individuals in mark-recapture experiments. If animals in a population can be identified from multiple, non-invasive marks then some individuals may be counted twice in the observed data. Analyzing the observed histories without accounting for these errors will provide incorrect inference about the population dynamics. Previous approaches to this problem include modeling data from only one mark and combining estimators obtained from each mark separately assuming that they are independent. Motivated by the analysis of data from the ECOCEAN online whale shark (Rhincodon typus) catalog, we describe a Bayesian method to analyze data from multiple, non-invasive marks that is based on the latent-multinomial model of Link et al. (2010, Biometrics 66, 178-185). Further to this, we describe a simplification of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm of Link et al. (2010, Biometrics 66, 178-185) that leads to more efficient computation. We present results from the analysis of the ECOCEAN whale shark data and from simulation studies comparing our method with the previous approaches. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Wiring Together Synthetic Bacterial Consortia to Create a Biological Integrated Circuit.

PubMed

Perry, Nicolas; Nelson, Edward M; Timp, Gregory

2016-12-16

The promise of adapting biology to information processing will not be realized until engineered gene circuits, operating in different cell populations, can be wired together to express a predictable function. Here, elementary biological integrated circuits (BICs), consisting of two sets of transmitter and receiver gene circuit modules with embedded memory placed in separate cell populations, were meticulously assembled using live cell lithography and wired together by the mass transport of quorum-sensing (QS) signal molecules to form two isolated communication links (comlinks). The comlink dynamics were tested by broadcasting "clock" pulses of inducers into the networks and measuring the responses of functionally linked fluorescent reporters, and then modeled through simulations that realistically captured the protein production and molecular transport. These results show that the comlinks were isolated and each mimicked aspects of the synchronous, sequential networks used in digital computing. The observations about the flow conditions, derived from numerical simulations, and the biofilm architectures that foster or silence cell-to-cell communications have implications for everything from decontamination of drinking water to bacterial virulence.

Comparing Effects of Cluster-Coupled Patterns on Opinion Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yun; Si, Xia-Meng; Zhang, Yan-Chao

2012-07-01

Community structure is another important feature besides small-world and scale-free property of complex networks. Communities can be coupled through specific fixed links between nodes, or occasional encounter behavior. We introduce a model for opinion evolution with multiple cluster-coupled patterns, in which the interconnectivity denotes the coupled degree of communities by fixed links, and encounter frequency controls the coupled degree of communities by encounter behaviors. Considering the complicated cognitive system of people, the CODA (continuous opinions and discrete actions) update rules are used to mimic how people update their decisions after interacting with someone. It is shown that, large interconnectivity and encounter frequency both can promote consensus, reduce competition between communities and propagate some opinion successfully across the whole population. Encounter frequency is better than interconnectivity at facilitating the consensus of decisions. When the degree of social cohesion is same, small interconnectivity has better effects on lessening the competence between communities than small encounter frequency does, while large encounter frequency can make the greater degree of agreement across the whole populations than large interconnectivity can.

Effect of intermodular connection on fast sparse synchronization in clustered small-world neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sang-Yoon; Lim, Woochang

2015-11-01

We consider a clustered network with small-world subnetworks of inhibitory fast spiking interneurons and investigate the effect of intermodular connection on the emergence of fast sparsely synchronized rhythms by varying both the intermodular coupling strength Jinter and the average number of intermodular links per interneuron Msyn(inter ). In contrast to the case of nonclustered networks, two kinds of sparsely synchronized states such as modular and global synchronization are found. For the case of modular sparse synchronization, the population behavior reveals the modular structure, because the intramodular dynamics of subnetworks make some mismatching. On the other hand, in the case of global sparse synchronization, the population behavior is globally identical, independently of the cluster structure, because the intramodular dynamics of subnetworks make perfect matching. We introduce a realistic cross-correlation modularity measure, representing the matching degree between the instantaneous subpopulation spike rates of the subnetworks, and examine whether the sparse synchronization is global or modular. Depending on its magnitude, the intermodular coupling strength Jinter seems to play "dual" roles for the pacing between spikes in each subnetwork. For large Jinter, due to strong inhibition it plays a destructive role to "spoil" the pacing between spikes, while for small Jinter it plays a constructive role to "favor" the pacing between spikes. Through competition between the constructive and the destructive roles of Jinter, there exists an intermediate optimal Jinter at which the pacing degree between spikes becomes maximal. In contrast, the average number of intermodular links per interneuron Msyn(inter ) seems to play a role just to favor the pacing between spikes. With increasing Msyn(inter ), the pacing degree between spikes increases monotonically thanks to the increase in the degree of effectiveness of global communication between spikes. Furthermore, we employ the realistic sub- and whole-population order parameters, based on the instantaneous sub- and whole-population spike rates, to determine the threshold values for the synchronization-unsynchronization transition in the sub- and whole populations, and the degrees of global and modular sparse synchronization are also measured in terms of the realistic sub- and whole-population statistical-mechanical spiking measures defined by considering both the occupation and the pacing degrees of spikes. It is expected that our results could have implications for the role of the brain plasticity in some functional behaviors associated with population synchronization.

Link prediction in the network of global virtual water trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-04-01

Through the international food-trade, water resources are 'virtually' transferred from the country of production to the country of consumption. The international food-trade, thus, implies a network of virtual water flows from exporting to importing countries (i.e., nodes). Given the dynamical behavior of the network, where food-trade relations (i.e., links) are created and dismissed every year, link prediction becomes a challenge. In this study, we propose a novel methodology for link prediction in the virtual water network. The model aims at identifying the main factors (among 17 different variables) driving the creation of a food-trade relation between any two countries, along the period between 1986 and 2011. Furthermore, the model can be exploited to investigate the network configuration in the future, under different possible (climatic and demographic) scenarios. The model grounds the existence of a link between any two nodes on the link weight (i.e., the virtual water flow): a link exists when the nodes exchange a minimum (fixed) volume of virtual water. Starting from a set of potential links between any two nodes, we fit the associated virtual water flows (both the real and the null ones) by means of multivariate linear regressions. Then, links with estimated flows higher than a minimum value (i.e., threshold) are considered active-links, while the others are non-active ones. The discrimination between active and non-active links through the threshold introduces an error (called link-prediction error) because some real links are lost (i.e., missed links) and some non-existing links (i.e., spurious links) are inevitably introduced in the network. The major drivers are those significantly minimizing the link-prediction error. Once the structure of the unweighted virtual water network is known, we apply, again, linear regressions to assess the major factors driving the fluxes traded along (modelled) active-links. Results indicate that, on the one hand, population and fertilizer use, together with link properties (such as the distance between nodes), are the major factors driving the links creation; on the other hand, population, distance, and gross domestic product are essential to model the flux entity. The results are promising since the model is able to correctly predict the 85% of the 16422 food-trade links (15% are missed), by spuriously adding to the real network only the 5% of non-existing links. The link-prediction error, evaluated as the sum of the percentage of missed and spurious links, is around 20% and it is constant over the study period. Only the 0.01% of the global virtual water flow is traded along missed links and an even lower flow is added by the spurious links (0.003%).

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—A synthesis of science, 2005 to 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delonay, Aaron J.; Chojnacki, Kimberly A.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Albers, Janice L.; Braaten, Patrick J.; Bulliner, Edward A.; Elliott, Caroline M.; Erwin, Susannah O.; Fuller, David B; Haas, Justin D.; Ladd, Hallie L.A.; Mestl, Gerald E.; Papoulias, Diana M.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

2016-01-20

Scientific understanding of the ecological requirements of pallid sturgeon has increased almost exponentially in the last two decades, and efforts are now turning from understanding fundamental biology of the species to quantifying how population dynamics relate to potential management actions. Progress in developing the science needed to inform management actions on the Missouri River may benefit from continuation of monitoring of reproductive cycles, reproductive movements, growth, and survival of telemetry tagged adults, increased emphasis on focused, complementary field and laboratory studies of factors influencing early life history, implementation of studies to resolve the role of food limitations in growth, survival, and reproductive condition, and implementation of studies designed specifically to parameterize models linking management to populations.

Discrete and continuum links to a nonlinear coupled transport problem of interacting populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duong, M. H.; Muntean, A.; Richardson, O. M.

2017-07-01

We are interested in exploring interacting particle systems that can be seen as microscopic models for a particular structure of coupled transport flux arising when different populations are jointly evolving. The scenarios we have in mind are inspired by the dynamics of pedestrian flows in open spaces and are intimately connected to cross-diffusion and thermo-diffusion problems holding a variational structure. The tools we use include a suitable structure of the relative entropy controlling TV-norms, the construction of Lyapunov functionals and particular closed-form solutions to nonlinear transport equations, a hydrodynamics limiting procedure due to Philipowski, as well as the construction of numerical approximates to both the continuum limit problem in 2D and to the original interacting particle systems.

Diffuse migratory connectivity in two species of shrubland birds: evidence from stable isotopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knick, Steven T.; Leu, Matthias; Rotenberry, John T.; Hanser, Steven E.; Fesenmyer, Kurt

2014-01-01

Connecting seasonal ranges of migratory birds is important for understanding the annual template of stressors that influence their populations. Brewer’s sparrows (Spizella breweri) and sagebrush sparrows (Artemisiospiza nevadensis) share similar sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats for breeding but have different population trends that might be related to winter location. To link breeding and winter ranges, we created isoscapes of deuterium [stable isotope ratio (δ) of deuterium; δ2H] and nitrogen (δ15N) for each species modeled from isotope ratios measured in feathers of 264 Brewer’s and 82 sagebrush sparrows and environmental characteristics at capture locations across their breeding range. We then used feather δ2Hf and δ15Nf measured in 1,029 Brewer’s and 527 sagebrush sparrows captured on winter locations in southwestern United States to assign probable breeding ranges. Intraspecies population mixing from across the breeding range was strong for both Brewer’s and sagebrush sparrows on winter ranges. Brewer’s sparrows but not sagebrush sparrows were linked to more northerly breeding locations in the eastern part of their winter range. Winter location was not related to breeding population trends estimated from US Geological Survey Breeding Bird Survey routes for either Brewer’s or sagebrush sparrows. Primary drivers of population dynamics are likely independent for each species; Brewer’s and sagebrush sparrows captured at the same winter location did not share predicted breeding locations or population trends. The diffuse migratory connectivity displayed by Brewer’s and sagebrush sparrows measured at the coarse spatial resolution in our analysis also suggests that local environments rather than broad regional characteristics are primary drivers of annual population trends.

Impacts of canine distemper virus infection on the giant panda population from the perspective of gut microbiota

PubMed Central

Zhao, Na; Li, Meng; Luo, Jing; Wang, Supen; Liu, Shelan; Wang, Shan; Lyu, Wenting; Chen, Lin; Su, Wen; Ding, Hua; He, Hongxuan

2017-01-01

The recent increase in infectious disease outbreaks has been directly linked to the global loss of biodiversity and the decline of some endangered species populations. Between December 2014 and March 2015, five captive giant pandas died due to canine distemper virus (CDV) infection in China. CDV has taken a heavy toll on tigers and lions in recent years. Here, we describe the first gut microbiome diversity study of CDV-infected pandas. By investigating the influence of CDV infection on gut bacterial communities in infected and uninfected individuals and throughout the course of infection, we found that CDV infection distorted the gut microbiota composition by reducing the prevalence of the dominant genera, Escherichia and Clostridium, and increasing microbial diversity. Our results highlight that increases in intestinal inflammation and changes in the relative abundances of pathogen-containing gut communities occur when individuals become infected with CDV. These results may provide new insights into therapeutics that target the microbiota to attenuate the progression of CDV disease and to reduce the risk of gut-linked disease in individuals with CDV. In addition, our findings underscore the need for better information concerning the dynamics of infection and the damage caused by pathogens in panda populations. PMID:28051146

Balance of Interactions Determines Optimal Survival in Multi-Species Communities.

PubMed

Choudhary, Anshul; Sinha, Sudeshna

2015-01-01

We consider a multi-species community modelled as a complex network of populations, where the links are given by a random asymmetric connectivity matrix J, with fraction 1 - C of zero entries, where C reflects the over-all connectivity of the system. The non-zero elements of J are drawn from a Gaussian distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ. The signs of the elements Jij reflect the nature of density-dependent interactions, such as predatory-prey, mutualism or competition, and their magnitudes reflect the strength of the interaction. In this study we try to uncover the broad features of the inter-species interactions that determine the global robustness of this network, as indicated by the average number of active nodes (i.e. non-extinct species) in the network, and the total population, reflecting the biomass yield. We find that the network transitions from a completely extinct system to one where all nodes are active, as the mean interaction strength goes from negative to positive, with the transition getting sharper for increasing C and decreasing σ. We also find that the total population, displays distinct non-monotonic scaling behaviour with respect to the product μC, implying that survival is dependent not merely on the number of links, but rather on the combination of the sparseness of the connectivity matrix and the net interaction strength. Interestingly, in an intermediate window of positive μC, the total population is maximal, indicating that too little or too much positive interactions is detrimental to survival. Rather, the total population levels are optimal when the network has intermediate net positive connection strengths. At the local level we observe marked qualitative changes in dynamical patterns, ranging from anti-phase clusters of period 2 cycles and chaotic bands, to fixed points, under the variation of mean μ of the interaction strengths. We also study the correlation between synchronization and survival, and find that synchronization does not necessarily lead to extinction. Lastly, we propose an effective low dimensional map to capture the behavior of the entire network, and this provides a broad understanding of the interplay of the local dynamical patterns and the global robustness trends in the network.

A Bayesian model for estimating population means using a link-tracing sampling design.

PubMed

St Clair, Katherine; O'Connell, Daniel

2012-03-01

Link-tracing sampling designs can be used to study human populations that contain "hidden" groups who tend to be linked together by a common social trait. These links can be used to increase the sampling intensity of a hidden domain by tracing links from individuals selected in an initial wave of sampling to additional domain members. Chow and Thompson (2003, Survey Methodology 29, 197-205) derived a Bayesian model to estimate the size or proportion of individuals in the hidden population for certain link-tracing designs. We propose an addition to their model that will allow for the modeling of a quantitative response. We assess properties of our model using a constructed population and a real population of at-risk individuals, both of which contain two domains of hidden and nonhidden individuals. Our results show that our model can produce good point and interval estimates of the population mean and domain means when our population assumptions are satisfied. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

The hitchhiker's guide to Europe: the infection dynamics of an ongoing Wolbachia invasion and mitochondrial selective sweep in Rhagoletis cerasi.

PubMed

Schuler, Hannes; Köppler, Kirsten; Daxböck-Horvath, Sabine; Rasool, Bilal; Krumböck, Susanne; Schwarz, Dietmar; Hoffmeister, Thomas S; Schlick-Steiner, Birgit C; Steiner, Florian M; Telschow, Arndt; Stauffer, Christian; Arthofer, Wolfgang; Riegler, Markus

2016-04-01

Wolbachia is a maternally inherited and ubiquitous endosymbiont of insects. It can hijack host reproduction by manipulations such as cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) to enhance vertical transmission. Horizontal transmission of Wolbachia can also result in the colonization of new mitochondrial lineages. In this study, we present a 15-year-long survey of Wolbachia in the cherry fruit fly Rhagoletis cerasi across Europe and the spatiotemporal distribution of two prevalent strains, wCer1 and wCer2, and associated mitochondrial haplotypes in Germany. Across most of Europe, populations consisted of either 100% singly (wCer1) infected individuals with haplotype HT1, or 100% doubly (wCer1&2) infected individuals with haplotype HT2, differentiated only by a single nucleotide polymorphism. In central Germany, singly infected populations were surrounded by transitional populations, consisting of both singly and doubly infected individuals, sandwiched between populations fixed for wCer1&2. Populations with fixed infection status showed perfect association of infection and mitochondria, suggesting a recent CI-driven selective sweep of wCer2 linked with HT2. Spatial analysis revealed a range expansion for wCer2 and a large transition zone in which wCer2 splashes appeared to coalesce into doubly infected populations. Unexpectedly, the transition zone contained a large proportion (22%) of wCer1&2 individuals with HT1, suggesting frequent intraspecific horizontal transmission. However, this horizontal transmission did not break the strict association between infection types and haplotypes in populations outside the transition zone, suggesting that this horizontally acquired Wolbachia infection may be transient. Our study provides new insights into the rarely studied Wolbachia invasion dynamics in field populations. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics suggest high elevation refugia for boreal toads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Muths, Erin L.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P

2018-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases are an increasingly common threat to wildlife. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is an emerging infectious disease that has been linked to amphibian declines around the world. Few studies exist that explore amphibian-Bd dynamics at the landscape scale, limiting our ability to identify which factors are associated with variation in population susceptibility and to develop effective in situdisease management. Declines of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) in the Southern Rocky Mountains are largely attributed to chytridiomycosis but variation exists in local extinction of boreal toads across this metapopulation. Using a large-scale historic dataset, we explored several potential factors influencing disease dynamics in the boreal toad-Bd system: geographic isolation of populations, amphibian community richness, elevational differences, and habitat permanence. We found evidence that boreal toad extinction risk was lowest at high elevations where temperatures may be sub-optimal for Bd growth and where small boreal toad populations may be below the threshold needed for efficient pathogen transmission. In addition, boreal toads were more likely to recolonize high elevation sites after local extinction, again suggesting that high elevations may provide refuge from disease for boreal toads. We illustrate a modeling framework that will be useful to natural resource managers striving to make decisions in amphibian-Bdsystems. Our data suggest that in the southern Rocky Mountains high elevation sites should be prioritized for conservation initiatives like reintroductions.

Strategy to Conduct Quantitative Ecohydrologic Analysis of a UNESCO World Heritage Site: the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, E. M.; Gorelick, S.; Hadly, E. A.

2016-12-01

The 6000 km2 Peace-Athabasca Delta ("Delta") in northeastern Alberta, Canada, is a Ramsar Convention Wetland and UNESCO World Heritage Site ("in Danger" status pending) where hydropower development and climate change are creating ecological impacts through desiccation and reduction in Delta shoreline habitat. We focus on ecohydrologic changes and mitigation and adaptation options to advance the field of ecohydrology using interdisciplinary technology by combining, for the first time, satellite remote sensing and hydrologic simulation with individual-based population modeling of muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus), a species native to the Delta whose population dynamics are strongly controlled by the hydrology of floodplain lakes. We are building a conceptual and quantitative modeling framework linking climate change, upstream water demand, and hydrologic change in the floodplain to muskrat population dynamics with the objective of exploring the impacts of these stressors on this ecosystem. We explicitly account for cultural and humanistic influences and are committed to effective communication with the regional subsistence community that depends on muskrat for food and income. Our modeling framework can ultimately serve as the basis for improved stewardship and sustainable development upstream of stressed freshwater deltaic, coastal and lake systems worldwide affected by climate change, providing a predictive tool to quantify population changes of animals relevant to regional subsistence food security and commercial trapping.

Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England.

PubMed

Woodcock, Ben A; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Bullock, James M; Roy, David B; Garthwaite, David G; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F

2016-08-16

Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines.

Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodcock, Ben A.; Isaac, Nicholas J. B.; Bullock, James M.; Roy, David B.; Garthwaite, David G.; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F.

2016-08-01

Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines.

Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England

PubMed Central

Woodcock, Ben A.; Isaac, Nicholas J. B.; Bullock, James M.; Roy, David B.; Garthwaite, David G.; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F.

2016-01-01

Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines. PMID:27529661

Vitamin K status in chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

McCabe, Kristin M; Adams, Michael A; Holden, Rachel M

2013-11-07

The purpose of this review is to summarize the research to date on vitamin K status in chronic kidney disease (CKD). This review includes a summary of the data available on vitamin K status in patients across the spectrum of CKD as well as the link between vitamin K deficiency in CKD and bone dynamics, including mineralization and demineralization, as well as ectopic mineralization. It also describes two current clinical trials that are underway evaluating vitamin K treatment in CKD patients. These data may inform future clinical practice in this population.

The Far Right Challenge Comment on "The Rise of Post-truth Populism in Pluralist Liberal Democracies: Challenges for Health Policy".

PubMed

Halikiopoulou, Daphne

2017-07-11

Speed and Mannion make a good case that the rise of populism poses significant challenges for health policy. This commentary suggests that the link between populism and health policy should be further nuanced in four ways. First, a deconstruction of the term populism itself and a focus on the far right dimension of populist politics; second, a focus on the supply side and more specifically the question of nationalism and the 'national preference'; third, the dynamics of party competition during economic crisis; and fourth the question of policy, and more specifically the extent to which certain labour market policies are able to mediate demand for the far right. © 2018 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Combining noninvasive genetics and a new mammalian sex-linked marker provides new tools to investigate population size, structure and individual behaviour: An application to bats.

PubMed

Zarzoso-Lacoste, Diane; Jan, Pierre-Loup; Lehnen, Lisa; Girard, Thomas; Besnard, Anne-Laure; Puechmaille, Sebastien J; Petit, Eric J

2018-03-01

Monitoring wild populations is crucial for their effective management. Noninvasive genetic methods provide robust data from individual free-ranging animals, which can be used in capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models to estimate demographic parameters without capturing or disturbing them. However, sex- and status-specific behaviour, which may lead to differences in detection probabilities, is rarely considered in monitoring. Here, we investigated population size, sex ratio, sex- and status-related behaviour in 19 Rhinolophus hipposideros maternity colonies (Northern France) with a noninvasive genetic CMR approach (using faeces) combined with parentage assignments. The use of the DDX3X/Y-Mam sexual marker designed in this study, which shows inter- and intrachromosomal length polymorphism across placental mammals, together with eight polymorphic microsatellite markers, produced high-quality genetic data with limited genotyping errors and allowed us to reliably distinguish different categories of individuals (males, reproductive and nonreproductive females) and to estimate population sizes. We showed that visual counts represent well-adult female numbers and that population composition in maternity colonies changes dynamically during the summer. Before parturition, colonies mainly harbour pregnant and nonpregnant females with a few visiting males, whereas after parturition, colonies are mainly composed of mothers and their offspring with a few visiting nonmothers and males. Our approach gives deeper insight into sex- and status-specific behaviour, a prerequisite for understanding population dynamics and developing effective monitoring and management strategies. Provided sufficient samples can be obtained, this approach can be readily applied to a wide range of species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

2 Gbit/s 0.5 μm complementary metal-oxide semiconductor optical transceiver with event-driven dynamic power-on capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xingle; Kiamilev, Fouad; Gui, Ping; Wang, Xiaoqing; Ekman, Jeremy; Zuo, Yongrong; Blankenberg, Jason; Haney, Michael

2006-06-01

A 2 Gb/s0.5 μm complementary metal-oxide semiconductor optical transceiver designed for board- or backplane level power-efficient interconnections is presented. The transceiver supports optical wake-on-link (OWL), an event-driven dynamic power-on technique. Depending on external events, the transceiver resides in either the active mode or the sleep mode and switches accordingly. The active-to-sleep transition shuts off the normal, gigabit link and turns on dedicated circuits to establish a low-power (~1.8 mW), low data rate (less than 100 Mbits/s) link. In contrast the normal, gigabit link consumes over 100 mW. Similarly the sleep-to-active transition shuts off the low-power link and turns on the normal, gigabit link. The low-power link, sharing the same optical channel with the normal, gigabit link, is used to achieve transmitter/receiver pair power-on synchronization and greatly reduces the power consumption of the transceiver. A free-space optical platform was built to evaluate the transceiver performance. The experiment successfully demonstrated the event-driven dynamic power-on operation. To our knowledge, this is the first time a dynamic power-on scheme has been implemented for optical interconnects. The areas of the circuits that implement the low-power link are approximately one-tenth of the areas of the gigabit link circuits.

Beech Fructification and Bank Vole Population Dynamics - Combined Analyses of Promoters of Human Puumala Virus Infections in Germany

PubMed Central

Reil, Daniela; Imholt, Christian; Eccard, Jana Anja; Jacob, Jens

2015-01-01

The transmission of wildlife zoonoses to humans depends, amongst others, on complex interactions of host population ecology and pathogen dynamics within host populations. In Europe, the Puumala virus (PUUV) causes nephropathia epidemica in humans. In this study we investigated complex interrelations within the epidemic system of PUUV and its rodent host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). We suggest that beech fructification and bank vole abundance are both decisive factors affecting human PUUV infections. While rodent host dynamics are expected to be directly linked to human PUUV infections, beech fructification is a rather indirect predictor by serving as food source for PUUV rodent hosts. Furthermore, we examined the dependence of bank vole abundance on beech fructification. We analysed a 12-year (2001-2012) time series of the parameters: beech fructification (as food resource for the PUUV host), bank vole abundance and human incidences from 7 Federal States of Germany. For the first time, we could show the direct interrelation between these three parameters involved in human PUUV epidemics and we were able to demonstrate on a large scale that human PUUV infections are highly correlated with bank vole abundance in the present year, as well as beech fructification in the previous year. By using beech fructification and bank vole abundance as predictors in one model we significantly improved the degree of explanation of human PUUV incidence. Federal State was included as random factor because human PUUV incidence varies considerably among states. Surprisingly, the effect of rodent abundance on human PUUV infections is less strong compared to the indirect effect of beech fructification. Our findings are useful to facilitate the development of predictive models for host population dynamics and the related PUUV infection risk for humans and can be used for plant protection and human health protection purposes. PMID:26214509

Beech Fructification and Bank Vole Population Dynamics--Combined Analyses of Promoters of Human Puumala Virus Infections in Germany.

PubMed

Reil, Daniela; Imholt, Christian; Eccard, Jana Anja; Jacob, Jens

2015-01-01

The transmission of wildlife zoonoses to humans depends, amongst others, on complex interactions of host population ecology and pathogen dynamics within host populations. In Europe, the Puumala virus (PUUV) causes nephropathia epidemica in humans. In this study we investigated complex interrelations within the epidemic system of PUUV and its rodent host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). We suggest that beech fructification and bank vole abundance are both decisive factors affecting human PUUV infections. While rodent host dynamics are expected to be directly linked to human PUUV infections, beech fructification is a rather indirect predictor by serving as food source for PUUV rodent hosts. Furthermore, we examined the dependence of bank vole abundance on beech fructification. We analysed a 12-year (2001-2012) time series of the parameters: beech fructification (as food resource for the PUUV host), bank vole abundance and human incidences from 7 Federal States of Germany. For the first time, we could show the direct interrelation between these three parameters involved in human PUUV epidemics and we were able to demonstrate on a large scale that human PUUV infections are highly correlated with bank vole abundance in the present year, as well as beech fructification in the previous year. By using beech fructification and bank vole abundance as predictors in one model we significantly improved the degree of explanation of human PUUV incidence. Federal State was included as random factor because human PUUV incidence varies considerably among states. Surprisingly, the effect of rodent abundance on human PUUV infections is less strong compared to the indirect effect of beech fructification. Our findings are useful to facilitate the development of predictive models for host population dynamics and the related PUUV infection risk for humans and can be used for plant protection and human health protection purposes.

Breeding-season sympatry facilitates genetic exchange among allopatric wintering populations of Northern Pintails in Japan and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Ozaki, Kiyoaki; Pearce, John M.; Guzzetti, Brian; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Shimada, Tetsuo; Derksen, Dirk V.

2009-01-01

The global redistribution of pathogens, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza, has renewed interest in the connectivity of continental populations of birds. Populations of the Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) wintering in Japan and California are considered separate from a management perspective. We used data from band recoveries and population genetics to assess the degree of biological independence of these wintering populations. Distributions of recoveries in Russia of Northern Pintails originally banded during winter in North America overlapped with distributions of Northern Pintails banded during winter in Japan. Thus these allopatric wintering populations are partially sympatric during the breeding season. The primary areas of overlap were along the Chukotka and Kamchatka peninsulas in Russia. Furthermore, band recoveries demonstrated dispersal of individuals between wintering populations both from North America to Japan and vice versa. Genetic analyses of samples from both wintering populations showed little evidence of population differentiation. The combination of banding and genetic markers demonstrates that these two continental populations are linked by low levels of dispersal as well as likely interbreeding in eastern Russia. Although the levels of dispersal are inconsequential for population dynamics, the combination of dispersal and interbreeding represents a viable pathway for exchange of genes, diseases, and/or parasites.

Climate Variability and Ponderosa Pine Colonizations in Central Wyoming: Integrating Dendroecology and Dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesser, M.; Wentzel, C.; Gray, S.; Jackson, S.

2007-12-01

Many tree species are predicted to expand into new territory over the coming decades in response to changing climate. By studying tree expansions over the last several centuries we can begin to understand the mechanisms underlying these changes and anticipate their consequences for forest management. Woody-plant demographics and decadal to multidecadal climate variability are often closely linked in semi-arid regions. Integrated tree-ring analysis, combining dendroecology and dendroclimatology to document, respectively, the demographic history of the population and the climatic history of the region, can reveal ecological dynamics in response to climate variability. We studied four small, disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming. These populations are located 30 to 100 kilometers from the nearest core populations of ponderosa pine in the western Bighorn Mountains. Packrat midden studies have shown that ponderosa pine colonized the western slopes of the Bighorn Range 1500 years ago, so the disjunct populations in the basin must be younger. All trees (living and dead) at each of the four disjunct populations were mapped, cored, and then aged using tree-ring based techniques. We obtained records of hydroclimatic variability from the Bighorn Basin using four tree-ring series from Pinus flexilis (3 sites) and Pseudotsuga menziesii (1 site). The four disjunct populations were all established within the past 500 years. Initially, the populations grew slowly with low recruitment rates until the early 19th century, when they experienced one or more large recruitment pulses. These pulses coincided with extended wet periods in the climate reconstruction. However, similar wet periods before the 19th Century were not accompanied by recruitment pulses, indicating that other factors (e.g., population density, genetic variability) are also important in colonization and expansion. We are currently obtaining genetic data and carrying out population modeling to differentiate the effects of population dynamics, genetic variability, and climate variability on recruitment and expansion of these populations.

Overlapping community detection based on link graph using distance dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Zhang, Jing; Cai, Li-Jun

2018-01-01

The distance dynamics model was recently proposed to detect the disjoint community of a complex network. To identify the overlapping structure of a network using the distance dynamics model, an overlapping community detection algorithm, called L-Attractor, is proposed in this paper. The process of L-Attractor mainly consists of three phases. In the first phase, L-Attractor transforms the original graph to a link graph (a new edge graph) to assure that one node has multiple distances. In the second phase, using the improved distance dynamics model, a dynamic interaction process is introduced to simulate the distance dynamics (shrink or stretch). Through the dynamic interaction process, all distances converge, and the disjoint community structure of the link graph naturally manifests itself. In the third phase, a recovery method is designed to convert the disjoint community structure of the link graph to the overlapping community structure of the original graph. Extensive experiments are conducted on the LFR benchmark networks as well as real-world networks. Based on the results, our algorithm demonstrates higher accuracy and quality than other state-of-the-art algorithms.

The Radial Distribution of Mono-metallicity Populations in the Galactic Disk as Evidence for Two-phase Disk Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez-Tenreiro, R.; Obreja, A.; Brook, C. B.; Martínez-Serrano, F. J.; Serna, A.

2017-09-01

Recent determinations of the radial distributions of mono-metallicity populations (MMPs, I.e., stars in narrow bins in [Fe/H] within wider [α/Fe] ranges) by the SDSS-III/APOGEE DR12 survey cast doubts on the classical thin- and thick-disk dichotomy. The analysis of these observations led to the non-[α /Fe] enhanced populations splitting into MMPs with different surface densities according to their [Fe/H]. By contrast, [α /Fe] enhanced (I.e., old) populations show a homogeneous behavior. We analyze these results in the wider context of disk formation within non-isolated halos embedded in the Cosmic Web, resulting in a two-phase mass assembly. By performing hydrodynamical simulations in the context of the ΛCDM model, we have found that the two phases of halo mass assembly (an early fast phase, followed by a slow phase with low mass-assembly rates) are very relevant to determine the radial structure of MMP distributions, while radial mixing only plays a secondary role, depending on the coeval dynamical and/or destabilizing events. Indeed, while the frequent dynamical violent events occuring at high redshift remove metallicity gradients and imply efficient stellar mixing, the relatively quiescent dynamics after the transition keeps [Fe/H] gaseous gradients and prevents newly formed stars from suffering strong radial mixing. By linking the two-component disk concept with the two-phase halo mass-assembly scenario, our results set halo virialization (the event marking the transition from the fast to the slow phases) as the separating event that marks periods that are characterized by different physical conditions under which thick- and thin-disk stars were born.

Neighbouring populations, opposite dynamics: influence of body size and environmental variation on the demography of stream-resident brown trout (Salmo trutta).

PubMed

Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Genovart, Meritxell; Álvarez, David; Cano, José M; Ojanguren, Alfredo F; Rodriguez-Muñoz, Rolando; Nicieza, Alfredo G

2015-06-01

In organisms such as fish, where body size is considered an important state variable for the study of their population dynamics, size-specific growth and survival rates can be influenced by local variation in both biotic and abiotic factors, but few studies have evaluated the complex relationships between environmental variability and size-dependent processes. We analysed a 6-year capture-recapture dataset of brown trout (Salmo trutta) collected at 3 neighbouring but heterogeneous mountain streams in northern Spain with the aim of investigating the factors shaping the dynamics of local populations. The influence of body size and water temperature on survival and individual growth was assessed under a multi-state modelling framework, an extension of classical capture-recapture models that considers the state (i.e. body size) of the individual in each capture occasion and allows us to obtain state-specific demographic rates and link them to continuous environmental variables. Individual survival and growth patterns varied over space and time, and evidence of size-dependent survival was found in all but the smallest stream. At this stream, the probability of reaching larger sizes was lower compared to the other wider and deeper streams. Water temperature variables performed better in the modelling of the highest-altitude population, explaining over a 99 % of the variability in maturation transitions and survival of large fish. The relationships between body size, temperature and fitness components found in this study highlight the utility of multi-state approaches to investigate small-scale demographic processes in heterogeneous environments, and to provide reliable ecological knowledge for management purposes.

Misapplied survey data and model uncertainty result in incorrect conclusions about the role of predation on alewife population dynamics in Lake Huron: a comment on He et al. (2015)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Stephen C.; Dunlop, Erin S.

2016-01-01

Drastic recent and ongoing changes to fish populations and food webs in the Great Lakes have been well-described (Riley et al. 2008; Barbiero et al. 2009; Nalepa et al. 2009; Fahnenstiel et al. 2010;Evans et al. 2011; Gobin et al. 2015), and uncertainty regarding their potential effects on fisheries has caused concern among scientists and fishery managers (e.g., Dettmers et al. 2012). In particular, the relative importance of “bottom-up” (e.g., lower trophic level changes) versus “top-down” (e.g., predation) factors to fish community changes in the Great Lakes have been widely debated (e.g.,Barbiero et al. 2011; Eshenroder and Lantry 2012; Bunnell et al. 2014). In Lake Huron, recent ecosystem changes have been particularly profound, and populations of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), an offshore pelagic prey fish, collapsed in 2003 and have yet to recover (Riley et al. 2008, 2014). He et al. (2015) recently used a series of linked ecological models to assess the role of predation in the dynamics of the offshore prey fish community in Lake Huron. While we believe that they provide a novel method for combining bioenergetics and stock assessment modeling, we question the validity of their conclusions because of the misapplication of survey data and the lack of critical interpretation of their modeling efforts. Here we describe how He et al. (2015) have misapplied bottom trawl data from Lake Huron, and we provide examples of how this has resulted in erroneous conclusions regarding the importance of predation to the population dynamics and collapse of alewife in Lake Huron.

Anticipating the unintended consequences of security dynamics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Overfelt, James Robert; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2010-01-01

In a globalized world, dramatic changes within any one nation causes ripple or even tsunamic effects within neighbor nations and nations geographically far removed. Multinational interventions to prevent or mitigate detrimental changes can easily cause secondary unintended consequences more detrimental and enduring than the feared change instigating the intervention. This LDRD research developed the foundations for a flexible geopolitical and socioeconomic simulation capability that focuses on the dynamic national security implications of natural and man-made trauma for a nation-state and the states linked to it through trade or treaty. The model developed contains a database for simulating all 229 recognizedmore » nation-states and sovereignties with the detail of 30 economic sectors including consumers and natural resources. The model explicitly simulates the interactions among the countries and their governments. Decisions among governments and populations is based on expectation formation. In the simulation model, failed expectations are used as a key metric for tension across states, among ethnic groups, and between population factions. This document provides the foundational documentation for the model.« less

Reversible large–scale modification of cortical networks during neuroprosthetic control

PubMed Central

Ganguly, Karunesh; Wallis, Jonathan D.

2012-01-01

Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMI) provide a framework to study cortical dynamics and the neural correlates of learning. Neuroprosthetic control has been associated with tuning changes in specific neurons directly projecting to the BMI (hereafter ‘direct neurons’). However, little is known about the larger network dynamics. By monitoring ensembles of neurons that were either causally linked to BMI control or indirectly involved, here we show that proficient neuroprosthetic control is associated with large-scale modifications to the cortical network in macaque monkeys. Specifically, there were changes in the preferred direction of both direct and indirect neurons. Interestingly, with learning, there was a relative decrease in the net modulation of indirect neural activity in comparison to the direct activity. These widespread differential changes in the direct and indirect population activity were remarkably stable from one day to the next and readily coexisted with the long-standing cortical network for upper limb control. Thus, the process of learning BMI control is associated with differential modification of neural populations based on their specific relation to movement control. PMID:21499255

Reversible large-scale modification of cortical networks during neuroprosthetic control.

PubMed

Ganguly, Karunesh; Dimitrov, Dragan F; Wallis, Jonathan D; Carmena, Jose M

2011-05-01

Brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) provide a framework for studying cortical dynamics and the neural correlates of learning. Neuroprosthetic control has been associated with tuning changes in specific neurons directly projecting to the BMI (hereafter referred to as direct neurons). However, little is known about the larger network dynamics. By monitoring ensembles of neurons that were either causally linked to BMI control or indirectly involved, we found that proficient neuroprosthetic control is associated with large-scale modifications to the cortical network in macaque monkeys. Specifically, there were changes in the preferred direction of both direct and indirect neurons. Notably, with learning, there was a relative decrease in the net modulation of indirect neural activity in comparison with direct activity. These widespread differential changes in the direct and indirect population activity were markedly stable from one day to the next and readily coexisted with the long-standing cortical network for upper limb control. Thus, the process of learning BMI control is associated with differential modification of neural populations based on their specific relation to movement control.

Systems Modeling at Multiple Levels of Regulation: Linking Systems and Genetic Networks to Spatially Explicit Plant Populations

PubMed Central

Kitchen, James L.; Allaby, Robin G.

2013-01-01

Selection and adaptation of individuals to their underlying environments are highly dynamical processes, encompassing interactions between the individual and its seasonally changing environment, synergistic or antagonistic interactions between individuals and interactions amongst the regulatory genes within the individual. Plants are useful organisms to study within systems modeling because their sedentary nature simplifies interactions between individuals and the environment, and many important plant processes such as germination or flowering are dependent on annual cycles which can be disrupted by climate behavior. Sedentism makes plants relevant candidates for spatially explicit modeling that is tied in with dynamical environments. We propose that in order to fully understand the complexities behind plant adaptation, a system that couples aspects from systems biology with population and landscape genetics is required. A suitable system could be represented by spatially explicit individual-based models where the virtual individuals are located within time-variable heterogeneous environments and contain mutable regulatory gene networks. These networks could directly interact with the environment, and should provide a useful approach to studying plant adaptation. PMID:27137364

Antagonistic autoregulation speeds up a homogeneous response in Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Rodrigo, Guillermo; Bajic, Djordje; Elola, Ignacio; Poyatos, Juan F

2016-10-31

By integrating positive and negative feedback loops, biological systems establish intricate gene expression patterns linked to multistability, pulsing, and oscillations. This depends on the specific characteristics of each interlinked feedback, and thus one would expect additional expression programs to be found. Here, we investigate one such program associated with an antagonistic positive and negative transcriptional autoregulatory motif derived from the multiple antibiotic resistance (mar) system of Escherichia coli. We studied the dynamics of the system by combining a predictive mathematical model with high-resolution experimental measures of the response both at the population and single-cell level. We show that in this motif the weak positive autoregulation does not slow down but rather enhances response speedup in combination with a strong negative feedback loop. This balance of feedback strengths anticipates a homogeneous population phenotype, which we corroborate experimentally. Theoretical analysis also emphasized the specific molecular properties that determine the dynamics of the mar phenotype. More broadly, response acceleration could provide a rationale for the presence of weak positive feedbacks in other biological scenarios exhibiting these interlinked regulatory architectures.

Recent gene-capture on the UV sex chromosomes of the moss Ceratodon purpureus.

PubMed

McDaniel, Stuart F; Neubig, Kurt M; Payton, Adam C; Quatrano, Ralph S; Cove, David J

2013-10-01

Sex chromosomes evolve from ordinary autosomes through the expansion and subsequent degeneration of a region of suppressed recombination that is inherited through one sex. Here we investigate the relative timing of these processes in the UV sex chromosomes of the moss Ceratodon purpureus using molecular population genetic analyses of eight newly discovered sex-linked loci. In this system, recombination is suppressed on both the female-transmitted (U) sex chromosome and the male-transmitted (V) chromosome. Genes on both chromosomes therefore should show the deleterious effects of suppressed recombination and sex-limited transmission, while purifying selection should maintain homologs of genes essential for both sexes on both sex chromosomes. Based on analyses of eight sex-linked loci, we show that the nonrecombining portions of the U and V chromosomes expanded in at least two events (~0.6-1.3 MYA and ~2.8-3.5 MYA), after the divergence of C. purpureus from its dioecious sister species, Trichodon cylindricus and Cheilothela chloropus. Both U- and V-linked copies showed reduced nucleotide diversity and limited population structure, compared to autosomal loci, suggesting that the sex chromosomes experienced more recent selective sweeps that the autosomes. Collectively these results highlight the dynamic nature of gene composition and molecular evolution on nonrecombining portions of the U and V sex chromosomes. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

1980 ASEAN programme roundup: a model in the making.

PubMed

1981-01-01

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) experts and heads of national population programs held their 4th meeting in Singapore from November 24-28, 1980. Program heads resolved to take steps to link their national activities in the population field with those of the ASEAN Population Program and carry out studies and a joint programming exercise in 1981. Progress reports on the following Phase 1 projects were given: 1) integration of population and rural development policies and programs in ASEAN countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand; 2) development of an inter-country modular training program for personnel in population and rural development; 3) multi-media support for population programs in the context of rural development in ASEAN countries; 4) utilization of research findings in population and family planning for policy formulation and program management in ASEAN countries; and 5) migration in relation to rural development. Phase 2 projects approved by ASEAN country participants were also discussed: 1) institutional development and exchange of personnel, 2) women in development, 3) developing and strengthening national population information systems and networks in ASEAN countries, 4) population and development dynamics and the man/resource balance, 5) studies on health and family planning in ASEAN countries, 6) population migration movement and development, and 7) development of ASEAN social indicators.

Vegetation changes associated with a population irruption by Roosevelt elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starns, H D; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Ricca, Mark; Duarte, Adam

2015-01-01

Interactions between large herbivores and their food supply are central to the study of population dynamics. We assessed temporal and spatial patterns in meadow plant biomass over a 23-year period for meadow complexes that were spatially linked to three distinct populations of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) in northwestern California. Our objectives were to determine whether the plant community exhibited a tolerant or resistant response when elk population growth became irruptive. Plant biomass for the three meadow complexes inhabited by the elk populations was measured using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which was derived from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery. Elk populations exhibited different patterns of growth through the time series, whereby one population underwent a complete four-stage irruptive growth pattern while the other two did not. Temporal changes in NDVI for the meadow complex used by the irruptive population suggested a decline in forage biomass during the end of the dry season and a temporal decline in spatial variation of NDVI at the peak of plant biomass in May. Conversely, no such patterns were detected in the meadow complexes inhabited by the nonirruptive populations. Our findings suggest that the meadow complex used by the irruptive elk population may have undergone changes in plant community composition favoring plants that were resistant to elk grazing.

Dynamics of social balance on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antal, T.; Krapivsky, P. L.; Redner, S.

2005-09-01

We study the evolution of social networks that contain both friendly and unfriendly pairwise links between individual nodes. The network is endowed with dynamics in which the sense of a link in an imbalanced triad—a triangular loop with one or three unfriendly links—is reversed to make the triad balanced. With this dynamics, an infinite network undergoes a dynamic phase transition from a steady state to “paradise”—all links are friendly—as the propensity p for friendly links in an update event passes through 1/2 . A finite network always falls into a socially balanced absorbing state where no imbalanced triads remain. If the additional constraint that the number of imbalanced triads in the network not increase in an update is imposed, then the network quickly reaches a balanced final state.

Centromere-associated meiotic drive and female fitness variation in Mimulus.

PubMed

Fishman, Lila; Kelly, John K

2015-05-01

Female meiotic drive, in which chromosomal variants preferentially segregate to the egg pole during asymmetric female meiosis, is a theoretically pervasive but still mysterious form of selfish evolution. Like other selfish genetic elements, driving chromosomes may be maintained as balanced polymorphisms by pleiotropic or linked fitness costs. A centromere-associated driver (D) with a ∼58:42 female-specific transmission advantage occurs at intermediate frequency (32-40%) in the Iron Mountain population of the yellow monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus. Previously determined male fertility costs are sufficient to prevent the fixation of D, but predict a higher equilibrium frequency. To better understand the dynamics and effects of D, we developed a new population genetic model and measured genotype-specific lifetime female fitness in the wild. In three of four years, and across all years, D imposed significant recessive seedset costs, most likely due to hitchhiking by deleterious mutations. With both male and female costs as measured, and 58:42 drive, our model predicts an equilibrium frequency of D (38%) very close to the observed value. Thus, D represents a rare selfish genetic element whose local population genetic dynamics have been fully parameterized, and the observation of equilibrium sets the stage for investigations of coevolution with suppressors. © 2015 The Author(s).

Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance.

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A; Schoof, Valérie A M; Bonnell, Tyler R; Gogarten, Jan F; Calmé, Sophie

2015-05-26

Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Genome-Wide Analyses on Our Understanding of Human Herpesvirus Diversity and Evolution.

PubMed

Renner, Daniel W; Szpara, Moriah L

2018-01-01

Until fairly recently, genome-wide evolutionary dynamics and within-host diversity were more commonly examined in the context of small viruses than in the context of large double-stranded DNA viruses such as herpesviruses. The high mutation rates and more compact genomes of RNA viruses have inspired the investigation of population dynamics for these species, and recent data now suggest that herpesviruses might also be considered candidates for population modeling. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) and bioinformatics have expanded our understanding of herpesviruses through genome-wide comparisons of sequence diversity, recombination, allele frequency, and selective pressures. Here we discuss recent data on the mechanisms that generate herpesvirus genomic diversity and underlie the evolution of these virus families. We focus on human herpesviruses, with key insights drawn from veterinary herpesviruses and other large DNA virus families. We consider the impacts of cell culture on herpesvirus genomes and how to accurately describe the viral populations under study. The need for a strong foundation of high-quality genomes is also discussed, since it underlies all secondary genomic analyses such as RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq), chromatin immunoprecipitation, and ribosome profiling. Areas where we foresee future progress, such as the linking of viral genetic differences to phenotypic or clinical outcomes, are highlighted as well. Copyright © 2017 Renner and Szpara.

Marine reserves as linked social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Pollnac, Richard; Christie, Patrick; Cinner, Joshua E; Dalton, Tracey; Daw, Tim M; Forrester, Graham E; Graham, Nicholas A J; McClanahan, Timothy R

2010-10-26

Marine reserves are increasingly recognized as having linked social and ecological dynamics. This study investigates how the ecological performance of 56 marine reserves throughout the Philippines, Caribbean, and Western Indian Ocean (WIO) is related to both reserve design features and the socioeconomic characteristics in associated coastal communities. Ecological performance was measured as fish biomass in the reserve relative to nearby areas. Of the socioeconomic variables considered, human population density and compliance with reserve rules had the strongest effects on fish biomass, but the effects of these variables were region specific. Relationships between population density and the reserve effect on fish biomass were negative in the Caribbean, positive in the WIO, and not detectable in the Philippines. Differing associations between population density and reserve effectiveness defy simple explanation but may depend on human migration to effective reserves, depletion of fish stocks outside reserves, or other social factors that change with population density. Higher levels of compliance reported by resource users was related to higher fish biomass in reserves compared with outside, but this relationship was only statistically significant in the Caribbean. A heuristic model based on correlations between social, cultural, political, economic, and other contextual conditions in 127 marine reserves showed that high levels of compliance with reserve rules were related to complex social interactions rather than simply to enforcement of reserve rules. Comparative research of this type is important for uncovering the complexities surrounding human dimensions of marine reserves and improving reserve management.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) health indicators: linking individual-based indicators to a management-relevant endpoint

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Jones, Michael L.; Ebener, Mark P.; Arts, Michael T.; Brenden, Travis O.; Honeyfield, Dale C.; Wright, Gregory M.; Faisal, Mohamed

2010-01-01

We examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of health indicators in four lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) stocks located in northern lakes Michigan and Huron from 2003 to 2006. The specific objectives were to (1) quantify spatial and temporal variability in health indicators; (2) examine relationships among nutritional indicators and stock-specific spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogen prevalence and intensity of infection; and (3) examine relationships between indicators measured on individual fish and stock-specific estimates of natural mortality. The percent of the total variation attributed to spatial and temporal sources varied greatly depending on the health indicator examined. The most notable pattern was a downward trend in the concentration of highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), observed in all stocks, in the polar lipid fraction of lake whitefish dorsal muscle tissue over the three study years. Variation among stocks and years for some indicators were correlated with the prevalence and intensity of the swimbladder nematode Cystidicola farionis, suggesting that our measures of fish health were related, at some level, with disease dynamics. We did not find relationships between spatial patterns in fish health indicators and estimates of natural mortality rates for the stocks. Our research highlights the complexity of the interactions between fish nutritional status, disease dynamics, and natural mortality in wild fish populations. Additional research that identifies thresholds of health indicators, below (or above) which survival may be reduced, will greatly help in understanding the relationship between indicators measured on individual fish and potential population-level effects.

Climate and demography in early prehistory: using calibrated (14)C dates as population proxies.

PubMed

Riede, Felix

2009-04-01

Although difficult to estimate for prehistoric hunter-gatherer populations, demographic variables-population size, density, and the connectedness of demes-are critical for a better understanding of the processes of material culture change, especially in deep prehistory. Demography is the middle-range link between climatic changes and both biological and cultural evolutionary trajectories of human populations. Much of human material culture functions as a buffer against climatic changes, and the study of prehistoric population dynamics, estimated through changing frequencies of calibrated radiocarbon dates, therefore affords insights into how effectively such buffers operated and when they failed. In reviewing a number of case studies (Mesolithic Ireland, the origin of the Bromme culture, and the earliest late glacial human recolonization of southern Scandinavia), I suggest that a greater awareness of demographic processes, and in particular of demographic declines, provides many fresh insights into what structured the archaeological record. I argue that we cannot sideline climatic and environmental factors or extreme geophysical events in our reconstructions of prehistoric culture change. The implications of accepting demographic variability as a departure point for evaluating the archaeological record are discussed.

Laser characterization of the unsteady 2-D ion flow field in a Hall thruster with breathing mode oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucca Fabris, Andrea; Young, Christopher; MacDonald-Tenenbaum, Natalia; Hargus, William, Jr.; Cappelli, Mark

2016-10-01

Hall thrusters are a mature form of electric propulsion for spacecraft. One commonly observed low frequency (10-50 kHz) discharge current oscillation in these E × B devices is the breathing mode, linked to a propagating ionization front traversing the channel. The complex time histories of ion production and acceleration in the discharge channel and near-field plume lead to interesting dynamics and interactions in the central plasma jet and downstream plume regions. A time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) diagnostic non-intrusively measures 2-D ion velocity and relative ion density throughout the plume of a commercial BHT-600 Hall thruster manufactured by Busek Co. Low velocity classes of ions observed in addition to the main accelerated population are linked to propellant ionization outside of the device. Effects of breathing mode dynamics are shown to persist far downstream where modulations in ion velocity and LIF intensity are correlated with discharge current oscillations. This work is sponsored by the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research with Dr. M. Birkan as program manager. C.Y. acknowledges support from the DOE NSSA Stewardship Science Graduate Fellowship under contract DE-FC52-08NA28752.

Epidemic dynamics on a risk-based evolving social network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antwi, Shadrack; Shaw, Leah

2013-03-01

Social network models have been used to study how behavior affects the dynamics of an infection in a population. Motivated by HIV, we consider how a trade-off between benefits and risks of sexual connections determine network structure and disease prevalence. We define a stochastic network model with formation and breaking of links as changes in sexual contacts. Each node has an intrinsic benefit its neighbors derive from connecting to it. Nodes' infection status is not apparent to others, but nodes with more connections (higher degree) are assumed more likely to be infected. The probability to form and break links is determined by a payoff computed from the benefit and degree-dependent risk. The disease is represented by a SI (susceptible-infected) model. We study network and epidemic evolution via Monte Carlo simulation and analytically predict the behavior with a heterogeneous mean field approach. The dependence of network connectivity and infection threshold on parameters is determined, and steady state degree distribution and epidemic levels are obtained. We also study a situation where system-wide infection levels alter perception of risk and cause nodes to adjust their behavior. This is a case of an adaptive network, where node status feeds back to change network geometry.

To trade or not to trade: Link prediction in the virtual water network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2017-12-01

In the international trade network, links express the (temporary) presence of a commercial exchange of goods between any two countries. Given the dynamical behaviour of the trade network, where links are created and dismissed every year, predicting the link activation/deactivation is an open research question. Through the international trade network of agricultural goods, water resources are 'virtually' transferred from the country of production to the country of consumption. We propose a novel methodology for link prediction applied to the network of virtual water trade. Starting from the assumption of having links between any two countries, we estimate the associated virtual water flows by means of a gravity-law model using country and link characteristics as drivers. We consider the links with estimated flows higher than 1000 m3/year as active links, while the others as non-active links. Flows traded along estimated active links are then re-estimated using a similar but differently-calibrated gravity-law model. We were able to correctly model 84% of the existing links and 93% of the non-existing links in year 2011. It is worth to note that the predicted active links carry 99% of the global virtual water flow; hence, missed links are mainly those where a minimum volume of virtual water is exchanged. Results indicate that, over the period from 1986 to 2011, population, geographical distances between countries, and agricultural efficiency (through fertilizers use) are the major factors driving the link activation and deactivation. As opposed to other (network-based) models for link prediction, the proposed method is able to reconstruct the network architecture without any prior knowledge of the network topology, using only the nodes and links attributes; it thus represents a general method that can be applied to other networks such as food or value trade networks.

Building Analytic Capacity and Statistical Literacy Among Title IV-E MSW Students

PubMed Central

LERY, BRIDGETTE; PUTNAM-HORNSTEIN, EMILY; WIEGMANN, WENDY; KING, BRYN

2016-01-01

Building and sustaining effective child welfare practice requires an infrastructure of social work professionals trained to use data to identify target populations, connect interventions to outcomes, adapt practice to varying contexts and dynamic populations, and assess their own effectiveness. Increasingly, public agencies are implementing models of self-assessment in which administrative data are used to guide and continuously evaluate the implementation of programs and policies. The research curriculum described in the article was developed to provide Title IV-E and other students interested in public child welfare systems with hands-on opportunities to become experienced and “statistically literate” users of aggregated public child welfare data from California’s administrative child welfare system, attending to the often missing link between data/research and practice improvement. PMID:27429600

Revealing the Link between Structural Relaxation and Dynamic Heterogeneity in Glass-Forming Liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lijin; Xu, Ning; Wang, W. H.; Guan, Pengfei

2018-03-01

Despite the use of glasses for thousands of years, the nature of the glass transition is still mysterious. On approaching the glass transition, the growth of dynamic heterogeneity has long been thought to play a key role in explaining the abrupt slowdown of structural relaxation. However, it still remains elusive whether there is an underlying link between structural relaxation and dynamic heterogeneity. Here, we unravel the link by introducing a characteristic time scale hiding behind an identical dynamic heterogeneity for various model glass-forming liquids. We find that the time scale corresponds to the kinetic fragility of liquids. Moreover, it leads to scaling collapse of both the structural relaxation time and dynamic heterogeneity for all liquids studied, together with a characteristic temperature associated with the same dynamic heterogeneity. Our findings imply that studying the glass transition from the viewpoint of dynamic heterogeneity is more informative than expected.

Markets on Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toroczkai, Zoltan; Anghel, Marian; Bassler, Kevin; Korniss, Gyorgy

2003-03-01

The dynamics of human, and most biological populations is characterized by competition for resources. By its own nature, this dynamics creates the group of "elites", formed by those agents who have strategies that are the most successful in the given situation, and therefore the rest of the agents will tend to follow, imitate, or interact with them, creating a social structure of leadership in the agent society. These inter-agent communications generate a complex social network with small-world character which itself forms the substrate for a second network, the action network. The latter is a highly dynamic, adaptive, directed network, defined by those inter-agent communication links on the substrate along which the passed information /prediction is acted upon by the other agents. By using the minority game for competition dynamics, here we show that when the substrate network is highly connected, the action network spontaneously develops hubs with a broad distribution of out-degrees, defining a robust leadership structure that is scale-free. Furthermore, in certain, realistic parameter ranges, facilitated by information passing on the action network, agents can spontaneously generate a high degree of cooperation making the collective almost maximally efficient.

An adaptive actuator failure compensation scheme for two linked 2WD mobile robots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yajie; Al-Dujaili, Ayad; Cocquempot, Vincent; El Badaoui El Najjar, Maan

2017-01-01

This paper develops a new adaptive compensation control scheme for two linked mobile robots with actuator failurs. A configuration with two linked two-wheel drive (2WD) mobile robots is proposed, and the modelling of its kinematics and dynamics are given. An adaptive failure compensation scheme is developed to compensate actuator failures, consisting of a kinematic controller and a multi-design integration based dynamic controller. The kinematic controller is a virtual one, and based on which, multiple adaptive dynamic control signals are designed which covers all possible failure cases. By combing these dynamic control signals, the dynamic controller is designed, which ensures system stability and asymptotic tracking properties. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive failure compensation scheme.

Investigating the effect of chemical stress and resource ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling exposure and recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating population status and remediation success. The Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) is an important and well-studied model organism for understanding the effects of pollutants and other stressors in estuarine and marine ecosystems. Herein, we develop a density dependent matrix population model for Atlantic killifish that analyzes both size-structure and age class-structure of the population so that we could readily incorporate output from a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model currently under development. This population modeling approach emphasizes application in conjunction with field monitoring efforts (e.g., through effects-based monitoring programs) and/or laboratory analysis to link effects due to chemical stress to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. We applied the model using data for killifish exposed to dioxin-like compounds, taken from a previously published study. Specifically, the model was used to investigate population trajectories for Atlantic killifish with dietary exposures to 112, 296, and 875 pg/g of dioxin with effects on fertility and survival rates. All effects were expressed relative to control fish. Further, the population model was employed to examine age and size distributions of a population exposed to resource limitation in addition to chemical stress. For each dietary exposure concentration o

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

PubMed

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L L; Akçakaya, H Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

PubMed Central

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C.; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L. L.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes. PMID:27973584

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.; ...

2015-02-01

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

Dynamic Analysis and Control of Lightweight Manipulators with Flexible Parallel Link Mechanisms. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jeh Won

1990-01-01

The objective is the theoretical analysis and the experimental verification of dynamics and control of a two link flexible manipulator with a flexible parallel link mechanism. Nonlinear equations of motion of the lightweight manipulator are derived by the Lagrangian method in symbolic form to better understand the structure of the dynamic model. The resulting equation of motion have a structure which is useful to reduce the number of terms calculated, to check correctness, or to extend the model to higher order. A manipulator with a flexible parallel link mechanism is a constrained dynamic system whose equations are sensitive to numerical integration error. This constrained system is solved using singular value decomposition of the constraint Jacobian matrix. Elastic motion is expressed by the assumed mode method. Mode shape functions of each link are chosen using the load interfaced component mode synthesis. The discrepancies between the analytical model and the experiment are explained using a simplified and a detailed finite element model.

Population dynamics, information transfer, and spatial organization in a chemical reaction network under spatial confinement and crowding conditions

DOE PAGES

Bellesia, Giovanni; Bales, Benjamin B.

2016-10-10

Here, we investigate, via Brownian dynamics simulations, the reaction dynamics of a generic, nonlinear chemical network under spatial confinement and crowding conditions. In detail, the Willamowski-Rossler chemical reaction system has been “extended” and considered as a prototype reaction-diffusion system. These results are potentially relevant to a number of open problems in biophysics and biochemistry, such as the synthesis of primitive cellular units (protocells) and the definition of their role in the chemical origin of life and the characterization of vesicle-mediated drug delivery processes. More generally, the computational approach presented in this work makes the case for the use of spatialmore » stochastic simulation methods for the study of biochemical networks in vivo where the “well-mixed” approximation is invalid and both thermal and intrinsic fluctuations linked to the possible presence of molecular species in low number copies cannot be averaged out.« less

The RNA polymerase clamp interconverts dynamically among three states and is stabilized in a partly closed state by ppGpp.

PubMed

Duchi, Diego; Mazumder, Abhishek; Malinen, Anssi M; Ebright, Richard H; Kapanidis, Achillefs N

2018-06-06

RNA polymerase (RNAP) contains a mobile structural module, the 'clamp,' that forms one wall of the RNAP active-center cleft and that has been linked to crucial aspects of the transcription cycle, including promoter melting, transcription elongation complex stability, transcription pausing, and transcription termination. Using single-molecule FRET on surface-immobilized RNAP molecules, we show that the clamp in RNAP holoenzyme populates three distinct conformational states and interconvert between these states on the 0.1-1 s time-scale. Similar studies confirm that the RNAP clamp is closed in open complex (RPO) and in initial transcribing complexes (RPITC), including paused initial transcribing complexes, and show that, in these complexes, the clamp does not exhibit dynamic behaviour. We also show that, the stringent-response alarmone ppGpp, which reprograms transcription during amino acid starvation stress, selectively stabilizes the partly-closed-clamp state and prevents clamp opening; these results raise the possibility that ppGpp controls promoter opening by modulating clamp dynamics.

Defining and Modeling Known Adverse Outcome Pathways: Domoic Acid and Neuronal Signaling as a Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watanabe, Karen H.; Andersen, Melvin E.; Basu, Nil

2011-01-01

An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a sequence of key events from a molecular-level initiating event and an ensuing cascade of steps to an adverse outcome with population level significance. To implement a predictive strategy for ecotoxicology, the multiscale nature of an AOP requires computational models to link salient processes (e.g., in chemical uptake, toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and population dynamics). A case study with domoic acid was used to demonstrate strategies and enable generic recommendations for developing computational models in an effort to move toward a toxicity testing paradigm focused on toxicity pathway perturbations applicable to ecological risk assessment. Domoic acid,more » an algal toxin with adverse effects on both wildlife and humans, is a potent agonist for kainate receptors (ionotropic glutamate receptors whose activation leads to the influx of Na+ and Ca2+). Increased Ca2+ concentrations result in neuronal excitotoxicity and cell death primarily in the hippocampus, which produces seizures, impairs learning and memory, and alters behavior in some species. Altered neuronal Ca2+ is a key process in domoic acid toxicity which can be evaluated in vitro. Further, results of these assays would be amenable to mechanistic modeling for identifying domoic acid concentrations and Ca2+ perturbations that are normal, adaptive, or clearly toxic. In vitro assays with outputs amenable to measurement in exposed populations can link in vitro to in vivo conditions, and toxicokinetic information will aid in linking in vitro results to the individual organism. Development of an AOP required an iterative process with three important outcomes: (1) a critically reviewed, stressor-specific AOP; (2) identification of key processes suitable for evaluation with in vitro assays; and (3) strategies for model development.« less

Human disease mortality kinetics are explored through a chain model embodying principles of extreme value theory and competing risks.

PubMed

Juckett, D A; Rosenberg, B

1992-04-21

The distributions for human disease-specific mortality exhibit two striking characteristics: survivorship curves that intersect near the longevity limit; and, the clustering of best-fitting Weibull shape parameter values into groups centered on integers. Correspondingly, we have hypothesized that the distribution intersections result from either competitive processes or population partitioning and the integral clustering in the shape parameter results from the occurrence of a small number of rare, rate-limiting events in disease progression. In this report we initiate a theoretical examination of these questions by exploring serial chain model dynamics and parameteric competing risks theory. The links in our chain models are composed of more than one bond, where the number of bonds in a link are denoted the link size and are the number of events necessary to break the link and, hence, the chain. We explored chains with all links of the same size or with segments of the chain composed of different size links (competition). Simulations showed that chain breakage dynamics depended on the weakest-link principle and followed kinetics of extreme-values which were very similar to human mortality kinetics. In particular, failure distributions for simple chains were Weibull-type extreme-value distributions with shape parameter values that were identifiable with the integral link size in the limit of infinite chain length. Furthermore, for chains composed of several segments of differing link size, the survival distributions for the various segments converged at a point in the S(t) tails indistinguishable from human data. This was also predicted by parameteric competing risks theory using Weibull underlying distributions. In both the competitive chain simulations and the parametric competing risks theory, however, the shape values for the intersecting distributions deviated from the integer values typical of human data. We conclude that rare events can be the source of integral shapes in human mortality, that convergence is a salient feature of multiple endpoints, but that pure competition may not be the best explanation for the exact type of convergence observable in human mortality. Finally, while the chain models were not motivated by any specific biological structures, interesting biological correlates to them may be useful in gerontological research.

Links between Socio-Economic Circumstances and Changes in Smoking Behavior in the Mexican Population: 2002–2010

PubMed Central

Beltrán-Sánchez, HIRAM; Thomas, DUNCAN; Teruel, GRACIELA; Wheaton, FELICIA; Crimmins, EILEEN M.

2013-01-01

While deleterious consequences of smoking on health have been widely publicized, in many developing countries, smoking prevalence is high and increasing. Little is known about the dynamics underlying changes in smoking behavior. This paper examines socio-economic and demographic characteristics associated with smoking initiation and quitting in Mexico between 2002 and 2010. In addition to the influences of age, gender, education, household economic resources and location of residence, changes in marital status, living arrangements and health status are examined. Drawing data from the Mexican Family Life Survey, a rich population-based longitudinal study of individuals, smoking behavior of individuals in 2002 is compared with their behavior in 2010. Logistic models are used to examine socio-demographic and health factors that are associated with initiating and quitting smoking. There are three main findings. First, part of the relationship between education and smoking reflects the role of economic resources. Second, associations of smoking with education and economic resources differ for females and males. Third, there is considerable heterogeneity in the factors linked to smoking behavior in Mexico indicating that the smoking epidemic may be at different stages in different population subgroups. Mexico has recently implemented fiscal policies and public health campaigns aimed at reducing smoking prevalence and discouraging smoking initiation. These programs are likely to be more effective if they target particular socio-economic and demographic sub-groups. PMID:23888371

Conformation and Dynamics of Human Urotensin II and Urotensin Related Peptide in Aqueous Solution.

PubMed

Haensele, Elke; Mele, Nawel; Miljak, Marija; Read, Christopher M; Whitley, David C; Banting, Lee; Delépée, Carla; Sopkova-de Oliveira Santos, Jana; Lepailleur, Alban; Bureau, Ronan; Essex, Jonathan W; Clark, Timothy

2017-02-27

Conformation and dynamics of the vasoconstrictive peptides human urotensin II (UII) and urotensin related peptide (URP) have been investigated by both unrestrained and enhanced-sampling molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations and NMR spectroscopy. These peptides are natural ligands of the G-protein coupled urotensin II receptor (UTR) and have been linked to mammalian pathophysiology. UII and URP cannot be characterized by a single structure but exist as an equilibrium of two main classes of ring conformations, open and folded, with rapidly interchanging subtypes. The open states are characterized by turns of various types centered at K 8 Y 9 or F 6 W 7 predominantly with no or only sparsely populated transannular hydrogen bonds. The folded conformations show multiple turns stabilized by highly populated transannular hydrogen bonds comprising centers F 6 W 7 K 8 or W 7 K 8 Y 9 . Some of these conformations have not been characterized previously. The equilibrium populations that are experimentally difficult to access were estimated by replica-exchange MD simulations and validated by comparison of experimental NMR data with chemical shifts calculated with density-functional theory. UII exhibits approximately 72% open:28% folded conformations in aqueous solution. URP shows very similar ring conformations as UII but differs in an open:folded equilibrium shifted further toward open conformations (86:14) possibly arising from the absence of folded N-terminal tail-ring interaction. The results suggest that the different biological effects of UII and URP are not caused by differences in ring conformations but rather by different interactions with UTR.

Electrification pathways for Kenya-linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moksnes, Nandi; Korkovelos, Alexandros; Mentis, Dimitrios; Howells, Mark

2017-09-01

In September 2015 UN announced 17 Sustainable Development goals (SDG) from which goal number 7 envisions universal access to modern energy services for all by 2030. In Kenya only about 46% of the population currently has access to electricity. This paper analyses hypothetical scenarios, and selected implications, investigating pathways that would allow the country to reach its electrification targets by 2030. Two modelling tools were used for the purposes of this study, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. The tools were soft-linked in order to capture both the spatial and temporal dynamics of their nature. Two electricity demand scenarios were developed representing low and high end user consumption goals respectively. Indicatively, results show that geothermal, coal, hydro and natural gas would consist the optimal energy mix for the centralized national grid. However, in the case of the low demand scenario a high penetration of stand-alone systems is evident in the country, reaching out to approximately 47% of the electrified population. Increasing end user consumption leads to a shift in the optimal technology mix, with higher penetration of mini-grid technologies and grid extension.

A Study Of Anomalous Stars and Binary Populations Within Open Clusters: Tests Of Theoretical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, Aaron M.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Braden, Ella; Latham, David W.

2008-08-01

``Anomalous'' stars, such as blue stragglers and more recently sub- subgiants, have been an enduring challenge for stellar evolution theory. Recently it has become clear that in star clusters these systems are closely linked to the binary star populations. Furthermore, through advances in N-body modeling, we have come to realize that stellar dynamical processes play a central role in the formation of such anomalous stars. Indeed, these stars trace the interface between the classical fields of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics. We propose a thesis study to directly probe this interface through high-precision radial-velocity measurements of the anomalous stars and the binary populations in four open clusters. We have selected NGC 188 (7 Gyr), M67 (NGC 2682; 4 Gyr), NGC 6819 (2.4 Gyr), and M35 (NGC 2168; 150 Myr), as these span a wide range in age, are rich enough to provide statistically significant conclusions, and already have an extensive base of kinematic, spectroscopic, and photometric observations from the WIYN Open Cluster Study. Our proposed observations will define the spectroscopic hard binary populations (fraction, frequency distributions of orbital parameters, mass ratios) for orbital periods approaching the hard-soft boundary. These observations will also provide a comprehensive survey for anomalous stars, including secure establishment of their cluster membership. These data will allow us to perform the first detailed comparison to predictions from open cluster simulations of the binary populations among normal and anomalous stars, and thereby to constrain the evolutionary paths from one to the other.

A Study Of Anomalous Stars and Binary Populations Within Open Clusters: Tests Of Theoretical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, Aaron M.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Gosnell, Natalie; Latham, David W.

2009-02-01

``Anomalous'' stars, such as blue stragglers and more recently sub- subgiants, have been an enduring challenge for stellar evolution theory. Recently it has become clear that in star clusters these systems are closely linked to the binary star populations. Furthermore, through advances in N-body modeling, we have come to realize that stellar dynamical processes play a central role in the formation of such anomalous stars. Indeed, these stars trace the interface between the classical fields of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics. We propose a thesis study to directly probe this interface through high-precision radial-velocity measurements of the anomalous stars and the binary populations in four open clusters. We have selected NGC 188 (7 Gyr), M67 (NGC 2682; 4 Gyr), NGC 6819 (2.4 Gyr), and M35 (NGC 2168; 150 Myr), as these span a wide range in age, are rich enough to provide statistically significant conclusions, and already have an extensive base of kinematic, spectroscopic, and photometric observations from the WIYN Open Cluster Study. Our proposed observations will define the spectroscopic hard binary populations (fraction, frequency distributions of orbital parameters, mass ratios) for orbital periods approaching the hard-soft boundary. These observations will also provide a comprehensive survey for anomalous stars, including secure establishment of their cluster membership. These data will allow us to perform the first detailed comparison to predictions from open cluster simulations of the binary populations among normal and anomalous stars, and thereby to constrain the evolutionary paths from one to the other.

A Study Of Anomalous Stars and Binary Populations Within Open Clusters: Tests Of Theoretical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, Aaron M.; Mathieu, Robert D.; Braden, Ella; Latham, David W.

2008-02-01

``Anomalous'' stars, such as blue stragglers and more recently sub- subgiants, have been an enduring challenge for stellar evolution theory. Recently it has become clear that in star clusters these systems are closely linked to the binary star populations. Furthermore, through advances in N-body modeling, we have come to realize that stellar dynamical processes play a central role in the formation of such anomalous stars. Indeed, these stars trace the interface between the classical fields of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics. We propose a thesis study to directly probe this interface through high-precision radial-velocity measurements of the anomalous stars and the binary populations in four open clusters. We have selected NGC 188 (7 Gyr), M67 (NGC 2682; 4 Gyr), NGC 6819 (2.4 Gyr), and M35 (NGC 2168; 150 Myr), as these span a wide range in age, are rich enough to provide statistically significant conclusions, and already have an extensive base of kinematic, spectroscopic, and photometric observations from the WIYN Open Cluster Study. Our proposed observations will define the spectroscopic hard binary populations (fraction, frequency distributions of orbital parameters, mass ratios) for orbital periods approaching the hard-soft boundary. These observations will also provide a comprehensive survey for anomalous stars, including secure establishment of their cluster membership. These data will allow us to perform the first detailed comparison to predictions from open cluster simulations of the binary populations among normal and anomalous stars, and thereby to constrain the evolutionary paths from one to the other.

Quantifying selection in evolving populations using time-resolved genetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illingworth, Christopher J. R.; Mustonen, Ville

2013-01-01

Methods which uncover the molecular basis of the adaptive evolution of a population address some important biological questions. For example, the problem of identifying genetic variants which underlie drug resistance, a question of importance for the treatment of pathogens, and of cancer, can be understood as a matter of inferring selection. One difficulty in the inference of variants under positive selection is the potential complexity of the underlying evolutionary dynamics, which may involve an interplay between several contributing processes, including mutation, recombination and genetic drift. A source of progress may be found in modern sequencing technologies, which confer an increasing ability to gather information about evolving populations, granting a window into these complex processes. One particularly interesting development is the ability to follow evolution as it happens, by whole-genome sequencing of an evolving population at multiple time points. We here discuss how to use time-resolved sequence data to draw inferences about the evolutionary dynamics of a population under study. We begin by reviewing our earlier analysis of a yeast selection experiment, in which we used a deterministic evolutionary framework to identify alleles under selection for heat tolerance, and to quantify the selection acting upon them. Considering further the use of advanced intercross lines to measure selection, we here extend this framework to cover scenarios of simultaneous recombination and selection, and of two driver alleles with multiple linked neutral, or passenger, alleles, where the driver pair evolves under an epistatic fitness landscape. We conclude by discussing the limitations of the approach presented and outlining future challenges for such methodologies.

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

2012-01-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal operation of the Scotia Sea ecosystem: a review of large-scale links in a krill centred food web

PubMed Central

Murphy, E.J; Watkins, J.L; Trathan, P.N; Reid, K; Meredith, M.P; Thorpe, S.E; Johnston, N.M; Clarke, A; Tarling, G.A; Collins, M.A; Forcada, J; Shreeve, R.S; Atkinson, A; Korb, R; Whitehouse, M.J; Ward, P; Rodhouse, P.G; Enderlein, P; Hirst, A.G; Martin, A.R; Hill, S.L; Staniland, I.J; Pond, D.W; Briggs, D.R; Cunningham, N.J; Fleming, A.H

2006-01-01

The Scotia Sea ecosystem is a major component of the circumpolar Southern Ocean system, where productivity and predator demand for prey are high. The eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and waters from the Weddell–Scotia Confluence dominate the physics of the Scotia Sea, leading to a strong advective flow, intense eddy activity and mixing. There is also strong seasonality, manifest by the changing irradiance and sea ice cover, which leads to shorter summers in the south. Summer phytoplankton blooms, which at times can cover an area of more than 0.5 million km2, probably result from the mixing of micronutrients into surface waters through the flow of the ACC over the Scotia Arc. This production is consumed by a range of species including Antarctic krill, which are the major prey item of large seabird and marine mammal populations. The flow of the ACC is steered north by the Scotia Arc, pushing polar water to lower latitudes, carrying with it krill during spring and summer, which subsidize food webs around South Georgia and the northern Scotia Arc. There is also marked interannual variability in winter sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures that is linked to southern hemisphere-scale climate processes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This variation affects regional primary and secondary production and influences biogeochemical cycles. It also affects krill population dynamics and dispersal, which in turn impacts higher trophic level predator foraging, breeding performance and population dynamics. The ecosystem has also been highly perturbed as a result of harvesting over the last two centuries and significant ecological changes have also occurred in response to rapid regional warming during the second half of the twentieth century. This combination of historical perturbation and rapid regional change highlights that the Scotia Sea ecosystem is likely to show significant change over the next two to three decades, which may result in major ecological shifts. PMID:17405210

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geng, Tao; Smallwood, Chuck R.; Bredeweg, Erin L.

Modern live-cell imaging approaches permit real-time visualization of biological processes, yet limitations exist for unicellular organism isolation, culturing and long-term imaging that preclude fully understanding how cells sense and respond to environmental perturbations and the link between single-cell variability and whole-population dynamics. Here we present a microfluidic platform that provides fine control over the local environment with the capacity to replace media components at any experimental time point, and provides both perfused and compartmentalized cultivation conditions depending on the valve configuration. The functionality and flexibility of the platform were validated using both bacteria and yeast having different sizes, motility andmore » growth media. The demonstrated ability to track the growth and dynamics of both motile and non-motile prokaryotic and eukaryotic organisms emphasizes the versatility of the devices, which with further scale-up should enable studies in bioenergy and environmental research.« less

Ultrafast carrier dynamics in the large-magnetoresistance material WTe 2

DOE PAGES

Dai, Y. M.; Bowlan, J.; Li, H.; ...

2015-10-07

In this study, ultrafast optical pump-probe spectroscopy is used to track carrier dynamics in the large-magnetoresistance material WTe 2. Our experiments reveal a fast relaxation process occurring on a subpicosecond time scale that is caused by electron-phonon thermalization, allowing us to extract the electron-phonon coupling constant. An additional slower relaxation process, occurring on a time scale of ~5–15 ps, is attributed to phonon-assisted electron-hole recombination. As the temperature decreases from 300 K, the time scale governing this process increases due to the reduction of the phonon population. However, below ~50 K, an unusual decrease of the recombination time sets in,more » most likely due to a change in the electronic structure that has been linked to the large magnetoresistance observed in this material.« less

Transcontinental migratory connectivity predicts parasite prevalence in breeding populations of the European barn swallow.

PubMed

von Rönn, J A C; Harrod, C; Bensch, S; Wolf, J B W

2015-03-01

Parasites exert a major impact on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of their hosts and the associated biotic environment. Migration constitutes an effective means for long-distance invasions of vector-borne parasites and promotes their rapid spread. Yet, ecological and spatial information on population-specific host-parasite connectivity is essentially lacking. Here, we address this question in a system consisting of a transcontinental migrant species, the European barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) which serves as a vector for avian endoparasites in the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon. Using feather stable isotope ratios as geographically informative markers, we first assessed migratory connectivity in the host: Northern European breeding populations predominantly overwintered in dry, savannah-like habitats in Southern Africa, whereas Southern European populations were associated with wetland habitats in Western Central Africa. Wintering areas of swallows breeding in Central Europe indicated a migratory divide with both migratory programmes occurring within the same breeding population. Subsequent genetic screens of parasites in the breeding populations revealed a link between the host's migratory programme and its parasitic repertoire: controlling for effects of local breeding location, prevalence of Africa-transmitted Plasmodium lineages was significantly higher in individuals overwintering in the moist habitats of Western Central Africa, even among sympatrically breeding individuals with different overwintering locations. For the rarer Haemoproteus parasites, prevalence was best explained by breeding location alone, whereas no clear pattern emerged for the least abundant parasite Leucocytozoon. These results have implications for our understanding of spatio-temporal host-parasite dynamics in migratory species and the spread of avian borne diseases. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A Study of The Binary and Anomalous Stellar Populations in Two Intermediate-Aged Open Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathieu, Robert D.; Milliman, Katelyn; Geller, Aaron M.; Gosnell, Natalie

2010-08-01

``Anomalous'' stars, such as blue stragglers and more recently sub- subgiants, have been an enduring challenge for stellar evolution theory. It is now clear that in star clusters these systems are closely linked to the binary star populations. Furthermore, sophisticated N-body models show that stellar dynamical processes play a central role in the formation of such anomalous stars. These stars trace the interface between the classical fields of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics. We propose to expand our highly successful radial-velocity survey to include two new rich open clusters NGC 7789 (1.8 Gyr, -0.1 dex) and NGC 2506 (2.1 Gyr, -0.4 dex) as part of the WIYN Open Cluster Study (WOCS). Though these two clusters are both of intermediate age and of similar richness, they have quite different blue straggler populations. NGC 2506 has only 10 known blue stragglers, while NGC 7789 has at least 27, among the largest known populations of blue stragglers in an open cluster. Defining the hard-binary populations in these two clusters is critical for understanding the factors that determine blue straggler production rates. Our proposed observations will establish the hard- binary fraction and frequency distributions of orbital parameters (periods, eccentricities, mass-ratios, etc.) for orbital periods approaching the hard-soft boundary, and will provide a comprehensive survey of the blue stragglers and other anomalous stars, including secure cluster memberships and binary properties. These data will then form direct constraints for detailed N-body open cluster simulations from which we will study the impact of the hard-binary population on the production rates and mechanisms of blue stragglers.

Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

PubMed

Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

2009-08-31

Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future researchers.

Lineage dynamics and mutation-selection balance in non-adapting asexual populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pénisson, Sophie; Sniegowski, Paul D.; Colato, Alexandre; Gerrish, Philip J.

2013-02-01

In classical population genetics, mutation-selection balance refers to the equilibrium frequency of a deleterious allele established and maintained under two opposing forces: recurrent mutation, which tends to increase the frequency of the allele; and selection, which tends to decrease its frequency. In a haploid population, if μ denotes the per capita rate of production of the deleterious allele by mutation and s denotes the selective disadvantage of carrying the allele, then the classical mutation-selection balance frequency of the allele is approximated by μ/s. This calculation assumes that lineages carrying the mutant allele in question—the ‘focal allele’—do not accumulate deleterious mutations linked to the focal allele. In principle, indirect selection against the focal allele caused by such additional mutations can decrease the frequency of the focal allele below the classical mutation-selection balance. This effect of indirect selection will be strongest in an asexual population, in which the entire genome is in linkage. Here, we use an approach based on a multitype branching process to investigate this effect, analyzing lineage dynamics under mutation, direct selection, and indirect selection in a non-adapting asexual population. We find that the equilibrium balance between recurrent mutation to the focal allele and the forces of direct and indirect selection against the focal allele is closely approximated by γμ/(s + U) (s = 0 if the focal allele is neutral), where γ ≈ eθθ-(ω+θ)(ω + θ)(Γ(ω + θ) - Γ(ω + θ,θ)), \\theta =U/\\tilde {s}, and \\omega =s/\\tilde {s}; U denotes the genomic deleterious mutation rate and \\tilde {s} denotes the geometric mean selective disadvantage of deleterious mutations elsewhere on the genome. This mutation-selection balance for asexual populations can remain surprisingly invariant over wide ranges of the mutation rate.

The roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems: new insights from long term ecological research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Heithaus, Michael R.; Mather, Martha E.; Matich, Philip; Nifong, James C.; Ripple, William J.; Silliman, Brian R.

2013-01-01

During recent human history, human activities such as overhunting and habitat destruction have severely impacted many large top predator populations around the world. Studies from a variety of ecosystems show that loss or diminishment of top predator populations can have serious consequences for population and community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, there are relatively few studies of the roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems, so that we do not yet completely understand what could happen to coastal areas if large top predators are extirpated or significantly reduced in number. This lack of knowledge is surprising given that coastal areas around the globe are highly valued and densely populated by humans, and thus coastal large top predator populations frequently come into conflict with coastal human populations. This paper reviews what is known about the ecological roles of large top predators in coastal systems and presents a synthesis of recent work from three coastal eastern US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites where long-term studies reveal what appear to be common themes relating to the roles of large top predators in coastal systems. We discuss three specific themes: (1) large top predators acting as mobile links between disparate habitats, (2) large top predators potentially affecting nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors, and (3) individual specialization of large top predator behaviors. We also discuss how research within the LTER network has led to enhanced understanding of the ecological roles of coastal large top predators. Highlighting this work is intended to encourage further investigation of the roles of large top predators across diverse coastal aquatic habitats and to better inform researchers and ecosystem managers about the importance of large top predators for coastal ecosystem health and stability.

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-01-01

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso’s highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed. PMID:27162339

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates.

PubMed

Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-06-07

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso's highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed.

Effects of nutrient enrichment on Prymnesium parvum population dynamics and toxicity: Results from field experiments, Lake Possum Kingdom, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roelke, D.L.; Errera, R.M.; Riesling, R.; Brooks, B.W.; Grover, J.P.; Schwierzke, L.; Urena-Boeck, F.; Baker, J.; Pinckney, J.L.

2007-01-01

Large fish kills associated with toxic populations of the haptophyte Prymnesium parvum occur worldwide. In the past 5 yr, incidences of P. parvum blooms in inland water bodies of Texas (USA) have increased dramatically, where cell densities in excess of 1 ?? 107 cells l-1 are typically observed. We conducted field experiments (Lake Possum Kingdom) during the fall and early spring of 28 d duration using 24 enclosures of 1.57 m 3 each. The experiments investigated the effect of nutrient enrichment, immigration of P. parvum and addition of barley straw extract on phytoplankton biomass and assemblage structure, P. parvum population density, zooplankton biomass and assemblage structure, bacteria, and toxicity. Nutrient enrichment stimulated P. parvum population growth beyond bloom proportions (>1 ?? 107 cells l-1). However, P. parvum did not dominate the assemblage under these conditions, as it does during natural blooms. Instead, euglenophytes and chlorophytes dominated. Toxicity, estimated using fish (Pimephales promelas) and cladoceran (Daphnia magna) bioassays and which is linked to P. parvum's allelopathic and mixotrophic effectiveness, was greatly reduced (eliminated in many cases) under conditions of nutrient enrichment. The suppression of toxicity by nutrient addition suggested that targeted and time-limited nutrient manipulations might be used to mitigate the effects of P. parvum blooms. Immigration of P. parvum into natural assemblages and addition of barley straw extract had no significant effect on plankton dynamics. ?? Inter-Research 2007.

Conjugate-Gradient Algorithms For Dynamics Of Manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fijany, Amir; Scheid, Robert E.

1993-01-01

Algorithms for serial and parallel computation of forward dynamics of multiple-link robotic manipulators by conjugate-gradient method developed. Parallel algorithms have potential for speedup of computations on multiple linked, specialized processors implemented in very-large-scale integrated circuits. Such processors used to stimulate dynamics, possibly faster than in real time, for purposes of planning and control.

System architecture for an advanced Canadian communications satellite demonstration mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takats, P.; Irani, S.

1992-03-01

An advanced communications satellite system that provides single hop interconnectivity and interworking for both a personal communications network and an advanced private business network in the Ka and Ku bands respectively, is presented. An overall network perspective is discussed that studies the interface of such an advanced satellite communication system to the terrestrial network in the context of the Open Systems Interconnection model. It is shown that this proposed satellite system can dynamically establish links and efficiently allocate the satellite resource amongst the user terminal population for a mix of data and voice traffic.

Morphological and transcriptomic evidence for ammonium induction of sexual reproduction in Thalassiosira pseudonana and other centric diatoms

PubMed Central

Moore, Eric R.; Bullington, Briana S.; Weisberg, Alexandra J.; Jiang, Yuan; Chang, Jeff

2017-01-01

The reproductive strategy of diatoms includes asexual and sexual phases, but in many species, including the model centric diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, sexual reproduction has never been observed. Furthermore, the environmental factors that trigger sexual reproduction in diatoms are not understood. Although genome sequences of a few diatoms are available, little is known about the molecular basis for sexual reproduction. Here we show that ammonium reliably induces the key sexual morphologies, including oogonia, auxospores, and spermatogonia, in two strains of T. pseudonana, T. weissflogii, and Cyclotella cryptica. RNA sequencing revealed 1,274 genes whose expression patterns changed when T. pseudonana was induced into sexual reproduction by ammonium. Some of the induced genes are linked to meiosis or encode flagellar structures of heterokont and cryptophyte algae. The identification of ammonium as an environmental trigger suggests an unexpected link between diatom bloom dynamics and strategies for enhancing population genetic diversity. PMID:28686696

High-throughput sequencing methods to study neuronal RNA-protein interactions.

PubMed

Ule, Jernej

2009-12-01

UV-cross-linking and RNase protection, combined with high-throughput sequencing, have provided global maps of RNA sites bound by individual proteins or ribosomes. Using a stringent purification protocol, UV-CLIP (UV-cross-linking and immunoprecipitation) was able to identify intronic and exonic sites bound by splicing regulators in mouse brain tissue. Ribosome profiling has been used to quantify ribosome density on budding yeast mRNAs under different environmental conditions. Post-transcriptional regulation in neurons requires high spatial and temporal precision, as is evident from the role of localized translational control in synaptic plasticity. It remains to be seen if the high-throughput methods can be applied quantitatively to study the dynamics of RNP (ribonucleoprotein) remodelling in specific neuronal populations during the neurodegenerative process. It is certain, however, that applications of new biochemical techniques followed by high-throughput sequencing will continue to provide important insights into the mechanisms of neuronal post-transcriptional regulation.

Morphological and transcriptomic evidence for ammonium induction of sexual reproduction in Thalassiosira pseudonana and other centric diatoms.

PubMed

Moore, Eric R; Bullington, Briana S; Weisberg, Alexandra J; Jiang, Yuan; Chang, Jeff; Halsey, Kimberly H

2017-01-01

The reproductive strategy of diatoms includes asexual and sexual phases, but in many species, including the model centric diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, sexual reproduction has never been observed. Furthermore, the environmental factors that trigger sexual reproduction in diatoms are not understood. Although genome sequences of a few diatoms are available, little is known about the molecular basis for sexual reproduction. Here we show that ammonium reliably induces the key sexual morphologies, including oogonia, auxospores, and spermatogonia, in two strains of T. pseudonana, T. weissflogii, and Cyclotella cryptica. RNA sequencing revealed 1,274 genes whose expression patterns changed when T. pseudonana was induced into sexual reproduction by ammonium. Some of the induced genes are linked to meiosis or encode flagellar structures of heterokont and cryptophyte algae. The identification of ammonium as an environmental trigger suggests an unexpected link between diatom bloom dynamics and strategies for enhancing population genetic diversity.

Museum specimen data reveal emergence of a plant disease may be linked to increases in the insect vector population.

PubMed

Zeilinger, Adam R; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Turek, Daniel; Oboyski, Peter T; Almeida, Rodrigo P P; Roderick, George K

2017-09-01

The emergence rate of new plant diseases is increasing due to novel introductions, climate change, and changes in vector populations, posing risks to agricultural sustainability. Assessing and managing future disease risks depends on understanding the causes of contemporary and historical emergence events. Since the mid-1990s, potato growers in the western United States, Mexico, and Central America have experienced severe yield loss from Zebra Chip disease and have responded by increasing insecticide use to suppress populations of the insect vector, the potato psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae). Despite the severe nature of Zebra Chip outbreaks, the causes of emergence remain unknown. We tested the hypotheses that (1) B. cockerelli occupancy has increased over the last century in California and (2) such increases are related to climate change, specifically warmer winters. We compiled a data set of 87,000 museum specimen occurrence records across the order Hemiptera collected between 1900 and 2014. We then analyzed changes in B. cockerelli distribution using a hierarchical occupancy model using changes in background species lists to correct for collecting effort. We found evidence that B. cockerelli occupancy has increased over the last century. However, these changes appear to be unrelated to climate changes, at least at the scale of our analysis. To the extent that species occupancy is related to abundance, our analysis provides the first quantitative support for the hypothesis that B. cockerelli population abundance has increased, but further work is needed to link B. cockerelli population dynamics to Zebra Chip epidemics. Finally, we demonstrate how this historical macro-ecological approach provides a general framework for comparative risk assessment of future pest and insect vector outbreaks. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Do glucocorticoids mediate the link between environmental conditions and telomere dynamics in wild vertebrates? A review.

PubMed

Angelier, Frédéric; Costantini, David; Blévin, Pierre; Chastel, Olivier

2018-01-15

Following the discoveries of telomeres and of their implications in terms of health and ageing, there has been a growing interest into the study of telomere dynamics in wild vertebrates. Telomeres are repeated sequences of non-coding DNA located at the terminal ends of chromosomes and they play a major role in maintaining chromosome stability. Importantly, telomeres shorten over time and shorter telomeres seem to be related with lower survival in vertebrates. Because of this potential link with longevity, it is crucial to understand not only the ecological determinants of telomere dynamics but also the regulatory endocrine mechanisms that may mediate the effect of the environment on telomeres. In this paper, we review the relationships that link environmental conditions, glucocorticoids (GC, the main hormonal mediator of allostasis) and telomere length in vertebrates. First, we review current knowledge about the determinants of inter-individual variations in telomere length. We emphasize the potential strong impact of environmental stressors and predictable life-history events on telomere dynamics. Despite recent progress, we still lack crucial basic data to fully understand the costs of several life-history stages and biotic and abiotic factors on telomere length. Second, we review the link that exists between GCs, oxidative stress and telomere dynamics in vertebrates. Although circulating GC levels may be closely and functionally linked with telomere dynamics, data are still scarce and somewhat contradictory. Further laboratory and field studies are therefore needed not only to better assess the proximate link between GC levels and telomere dynamics, but also to ultimately understand to what extent GCs and telomere length could be informative to measure the fitness costs of specific life-history stages and environmental conditions. Finally, we highlight the importance of exploring the functional links that may exist between coping styles, the GC stress response, and telomere dynamics in a life-history framework. To conclude, we raise new hypotheses regarding the potential of the GC stress response to drive the trade-off between immediate survival and telomere protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model.

PubMed

Lipp, Erin K; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R

2002-10-01

Recently, the role of the environment and climate in disease dynamics has become a subject of increasing interest to microbiologists, clinicians, epidemiologists, and ecologists. Much of the interest has been stimulated by the growing problems of antibiotic resistance among pathogens, emergence and/or reemergence of infectious diseases worldwide, the potential of bioterrorism, and the debate concerning climate change. Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, lends itself to analyses of the role of climate in infectious disease, coupled to population dynamics of pathogenic microorganisms, for several reasons. First, the disease has a historical context linking it to specific seasons and biogeographical zones. In addition, the population dynamics of V. cholerae in the environment are strongly controlled by environmental factors, such as water temperature, salinity, and the presence of copepods, which are, in turn, controlled by larger-scale climate variability. In this review, the association between plankton and V. cholerae that has been documented over the last 20 years is discussed in support of the hypothesis that cholera shares properties of a vector-borne disease. In addition, a model for environmental transmission of cholera to humans in the context of climate variability is presented. The cholera model provides a template for future research on climate-sensitive diseases, allowing definition of critical parameters and offering a means of developing more sophisticated methods for prediction of disease outbreaks.

Temperature-altered predator-prey dynamics in freshwater ponds in Arctic Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culler, L. E.; Ayres, M.

2011-12-01

Temperature sets the pace of many biological processes including species interactions. Describing the response of terrestrial and aquatic habitats to climate warming therefore requires studies of cross-trophic level dynamics. I use freshwater pond ecosystems in Arctic Greenland to study how the thermal environment shapes interactions between predators and their prey. This system is of interest because warming trends are notable, freshwaters are responding rapidly and dynamically to changes in temperature, and the biology of freshwaters is intimately linked to the terrestrial environment. My focal species are the Arctic mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae, Aedes nigripes) and its invertebrate predator, a predaceous diving beetle (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae, Colymbetes dolabratus). Both species develop as larvae in snow-melt ponds in May and June. I used experimental and observational studies to test effects of temperature on larval mosquito growth rates and predation rates by C. dolabratus. Results indicate strong effects of temperature on growth rate and development time but weak effects of temperature on consumption of mosquitoes by their predators. Incorporation of measured temperature response functions into a mosquito demographic model will elucidate how mosquito population dynamics in Arctic Greenland may change with temperature. For example, warming increases growth rate and decreases development time of mosquito larvae, which shortens the time larvae are exposed to predation. Additionally, decreased development time leads to an earlier mosquito emergence, with potential consequences for the health of wildlife. Evaluation of this model will reveal the importance of considering cross-trophic level dynamics when predicting mosquito population response to warming. Future studies will address interesting properties emerging from modeling, such as how shorter development time affects adult size and fitness, and connecting results to terrestrial systems in Arctic Greenland.

Persistence of Soil Organic Carbon can be Explained as an Emergent Property of Microbial Ecology and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolf, D.; Lehmann, J.

2016-12-01

The exchange of carbon between soils and the atmosphere represents an important uncertainty in climate predictions. Current Earth system models apply soil organic matter (SOM) models based on independent carbon pools with 1st order decomposition dynamics. It has been widely argued over the last decade that such models do not accurately describe soil processes and mechanisms. For example, the long term persistence of soil organic carbon (SOC) is only adequately described by such models by the post hoc assumption of passive or inert carbon pools. Further, such 1st order models also fail to account for microbially-mediated dynamics such as priming interactions. These shortcomings may limit their applicability to long term predictions under conditions of global environmental change. In addition to incorporating recent conceptual advances in the mechanisms of SOM decomposition and protection, next-generation SOM models intended for use in Earth system models need to meet further quality criteria. Namely, that they should (a) accurately describe historical data from long term trials and the current global distribution of soil organic carbon, (b) be computationally efficient for large number of iterations involved in climate modeling, and (c) have sufficiently simple parameterization that they can be run on spatially-explicit data available at global scale under varying conditions of global change over long time scales. Here we show that linking fundamental ecological principles and microbial population dynamics to SOC turnover rates results in a dynamic model that meets all of these quality criteria. This approach simultaneously eliminates the need to postulate biogeochemically-implausible passive or inert pools, instead showing how SOM persistence emerges from ecological principles, while also reproducing observed priming interactions.

Ecology, economy and management of an agroindustrial frontier landscape in the southeast Amazon

PubMed Central

Brando, Paulo M.; Coe, Michael T.; DeFries, Ruth; Azevedo, Andrea A.

2013-01-01

The papers in this special issue address a major challenge facing our society: feeding a population that is simultaneously growing and increasing its per capita food consumption, while preventing widespread ecological and social impoverishment in the tropics. By focusing mostly on the Amazon's most dynamic agricultural frontier, Mato Grosso, they collectively clarify some key elements of achieving more sustainable agriculture. First, stakeholders in commodity-driven agricultural Amazonian frontiers respond rapidly to multiple forces, including global markets, international pressures for sustainably produced commodities and national-, state- and municipality-level policies. These forces can encourage or discourage deforestation rate changes within a short time-period. Second, agricultural frontiers are linked systems, land-use change is linked with regional climate, forest fires, water quality and stream discharge, which in turn are linked with the well-being of human populations. Thus, land-use practices at the farm level have ecological and social repercussions far removed from it. Third, policies need to consider the full socio-economic system to identify the efficacy and consequences of possible land management strategies. Monitoring to devise suitable management approaches depends not only on tracking land-use change, but also on monitoring the regional ecological and social consequences. Mato Grosso's achievements in reducing deforestation are impressive, yet they are also fragile. The ecological and social consequences and the successes and failures of management in this region can serve as an example of possible trajectories for other commodity-driven tropical agricultural frontiers. PMID:23610163

Control method and system for hydraulic machines employing a dynamic joint motion model

DOEpatents

Danko, George [Reno, NV

2011-11-22

A control method and system for controlling a hydraulically actuated mechanical arm to perform a task, the mechanical arm optionally being a hydraulically actuated excavator arm. The method can include determining a dynamic model of the motion of the hydraulic arm for each hydraulic arm link by relating the input signal vector for each respective link to the output signal vector for the same link. Also the method can include determining an error signal for each link as the weighted sum of the differences between a measured position and a reference position and between the time derivatives of the measured position and the time derivatives of the reference position for each respective link. The weights used in the determination of the error signal can be determined from the constant coefficients of the dynamic model. The error signal can be applied in a closed negative feedback control loop to diminish or eliminate the error signal for each respective link.

Rapid evolution mitigates the ecological consequences of an invasive species (Bythotrephes longimanus) in lakes in Wisconsin.

PubMed

Gillis, Michael K; Walsh, Matthew R

2017-07-12

Invasive species have extensive negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem health. Novel species also drive contemporary evolution in many native populations, which could mitigate or amplify their impacts on ecosystems. The predatory zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus invaded lakes in Wisconsin, USA, in 2009. This invasion caused precipitous declines in zooplankton prey ( Daphnia pulicaria ), with cascading impacts on ecosystem services (water clarity). Here, we tested the link between Bythotrephes invasion, evolution in Daphnia and post-invasion ecological dynamics using 15 years of long-term data in conjunction with comparative experiments. Invasion by Bythotrephes is associated with rapid increases in the body size of Daphnia Laboratory experiments revealed that such shifts have a genetic component; third-generation laboratory-reared Daphnia from 'invaded' lakes are significantly larger and exhibit greater reproductive effort than individuals from 'uninvaded' lakes. This trajectory of evolution should accelerate Daphnia population growth and enhance population persistence. We tested this prediction by comparing analyses of long-term data with laboratory-based simulations, and show that rapid evolution in Daphnia is associated with increased population growth in invaded lakes. © 2017 The Authors.

Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb.

PubMed

Ramula, Satu

2014-04-01

Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.

Adaptive dynamical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslennikov, O. V.; Nekorkin, V. I.

2017-10-01

Dynamical networks are systems of active elements (nodes) interacting with each other through links. Examples are power grids, neural structures, coupled chemical oscillators, and communications networks, all of which are characterized by a networked structure and intrinsic dynamics of their interacting components. If the coupling structure of a dynamical network can change over time due to nodal dynamics, then such a system is called an adaptive dynamical network. The term ‘adaptive’ implies that the coupling topology can be rewired; the term ‘dynamical’ implies the presence of internal node and link dynamics. The main results of research on adaptive dynamical networks are reviewed. Key notions and definitions of the theory of complex networks are given, and major collective effects that emerge in adaptive dynamical networks are described.

Advanced optical fiber communication systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazovsky, Leonid G.

1994-03-01

Our research is focused on three major aspects of advanced optical fiber communication systems: dynamic wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) networks, fiber nonlinearities, and high dynamic range coherent analog optical links. In the area of WDM networks, we have designed and implemented two high-speed interface boards and measured their throughput and latency. Furthermore, we designed and constructed an experimental PSK/ASK transceiver that simultaneously transmits packet-switched ASK data and circuit-switched PSK data on the same optical carrier. In the area of fiber nonlinearities, we investigated the theoretical impact of modulation frequency on cross-phase modulation (XPM) in dispersive fibers. In the area of high dynamic range coherent analog optical links, we developed theoretical expressions for the RF power transfer ratio (or RF power gain) and the noise figure (NF) of angle-modulated links. We then compared the RF power gains and noise figures of these links to that of an intensity modulated direct detection (DD) link.

Adaptive output feedback control of flexible-joint robots using neural networks: dynamic surface design approach.

PubMed

Yoo, Sung Jin; Park, Jin Bae; Choi, Yoon Ho

2008-10-01

In this paper, we propose a new robust output feedback control approach for flexible-joint electrically driven (FJED) robots via the observer dynamic surface design technique. The proposed method only requires position measurements of the FJED robots. To estimate the link and actuator velocity information of the FJED robots with model uncertainties, we develop an adaptive observer using self-recurrent wavelet neural networks (SRWNNs). The SRWNNs are used to approximate model uncertainties in both robot (link) dynamics and actuator dynamics, and all their weights are trained online. Based on the designed observer, the link position tracking controller using the estimated states is induced from the dynamic surface design procedure. Therefore, the proposed controller can be designed more simply than the observer backstepping controller. From the Lyapunov stability analysis, it is shown that all signals in a closed-loop adaptive system are uniformly ultimately bounded. Finally, the simulation results on a three-link FJED robot are presented to validate the good position tracking performance and robustness of the proposed control system against payload uncertainties and external disturbances.

Reproduction and population dynamics of Mastomys natalensis Smith, 1834 in an agricultural landscape in the Western Usambara Mountains, Tanzania.

PubMed

Makundi, Rhodes H; Massawe, Apia W; Mulungu, Loth S

2007-12-01

The multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis Smith 1834, is a dominant species in agro-ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa, but adapts quickly to changes in non-agricultural landscape, particularly woodlands and forests. In this study we report on reproduction and population dynamics of M. natalensis in deforested high elevation localities in the Usambara Mountains, north-east Tanzania. We conducted Capture-Mark-Recapture studies in 2002-2004, and established that reproduction of M. natalensis takes place in the extended wet season between February and June, and the population density peaks in June-August. Reproduction cease in July to January and population density drops from July onwards. Reproduction and population density fluctuations are linked to the duration and amount of rainfall. In years when rainfall was below average and the wet season was short, the population density was significantly lower (below 10 animals/ha and 60 animals/ha in 2003 and 2004 respectively, compared to >100 animals/ha in 2002 when rainfall was above the seasonal average) (F(df 2,13)= 9.092, p < 0.01 for in between years variations and F(df 12,15)= 5.389, p < 0.01 for effect of cumulative annual rainfall on population density). These densities were much lower than in the lowland savannah habitats in central and southwest Tanzania. A comparison between the farmland/fallow mosaic fields and agro-forestry areas showed higher population densities in the former, which have similarities to the preferred habitats in the lowland savannahs. The increasing abundance of M. natalensis in the Usambara could have some consequences: M. natalensis is major pest and is involved in the plague cycle in the western Usambara Mountains. Mastomys natalensis is also a strong competitor and the impact on endemic rodent species, e.g. Lophuromys flavopunctatus and Praomys delectorum is unknown.

Dynamic fair node spectrum allocation for ad hoc networks using random matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmes, Mark; Lemieux, George; Chester, Dave; Sonnenberg, Jerry

2015-05-01

Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) is widely seen as a solution to the problem of limited spectrum, because of its ability to adapt the operating frequency of a radio. Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs) can extend high-capacity mobile communications over large areas where fixed and tethered-mobile systems are not available. In one use case with high potential impact, cognitive radio employs spectrum sensing to facilitate the identification of allocated frequencies not currently accessed by their primary users. Primary users own the rights to radiate at a specific frequency and geographic location, while secondary users opportunistically attempt to radiate at a specific frequency when the primary user is not using it. We populate a spatial radio environment map (REM) database with known information that can be leveraged in an ad hoc network to facilitate fair path use of the DSA-discovered links. Utilization of high-resolution geospatial data layers in RF propagation analysis is directly applicable. Random matrix theory (RMT) is useful in simulating network layer usage in nodes by a Wishart adjacency matrix. We use the Dijkstra algorithm for discovering ad hoc network node connection patterns. We present a method for analysts to dynamically allocate node-node path and link resources using fair division. User allocation of limited resources as a function of time must be dynamic and based on system fairness policies. The context of fair means that first available request for an asset is not envied as long as it is not yet allocated or tasked in order to prevent cycling of the system. This solution may also save money by offering a Pareto efficient repeatable process. We use a water fill queue algorithm to include Shapley value marginal contributions for allocation.

A vital link: water and vegetation in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerten, D.

2013-10-01

This paper argues that the interplay of water, carbon and vegetation dynamics fundamentally links some global trends in the current and conceivable future Anthropocene, such as cropland expansion, freshwater use, and climate change and its impacts. Based on a review of recent literature including geographically explicit simulation studies with the process-based LPJmL global biosphere model, it demonstrates that the connectivity of water and vegetation dynamics is vital for water security, food security and (terrestrial) ecosystem dynamics alike. The water limitation of net primary production of both natural and agricultural plants - already pronounced in many regions - is shown to increase in many places under projected climate change, though this development is partially offset by water-saving direct CO2 effects. Natural vegetation can to some degree adapt dynamically to higher water limitation, but agricultural crops usually require some form of active management to overcome it - among them irrigation, soil conservation and eventually shifts of cropland to areas that are less water-limited due to more favourable climatic conditions. While crucial to secure food production for a growing world population, such human interventions in water-vegetation systems have, as also shown, repercussions on the water cycle. Indeed, land use changes are shown to be the second-most important influence on the terrestrial water balance in recent times. Furthermore, climate change (warming and precipitation changes) will in many regions increase irrigation demand and decrease water availability, impeding rainfed and irrigated food production (if not CO2 effects counterbalance this impact - which is unlikely at least in poorly managed systems). Drawing from these exemplary investigations, some research perspectives on how to further improve our knowledge of human-water-vegetation interactions in the Anthropocene are outlined.

Linking micro- and macroevolutionary perspectives to evaluate the role of Quaternary sea-level oscillations in island diversification.

PubMed

Papadopoulou, Anna; Knowles, L Lacey

2017-12-01

With shifts in island area, isolation, and cycles of island fusion-fission, the role of Quaternary sea-level oscillations as drivers of diversification is complex and not well understood. Here, we conduct parallel comparisons of population and species divergence between two island areas of equivalent size that have been affected differently by sea-level oscillations, with the aim to understand the micro- and macroevolutionary dynamics associated with sea-level change. Using genome-wide datasets for a clade of seven Amphiacusta ground cricket species endemic to the Puerto Rico Bank (PRB), we found consistently deeper interspecific divergences and higher population differentiation across the unfragmented Western PRB, in comparison to the currently fragmented Eastern PRB that has experienced extreme changes in island area and connectivity during the Quaternary. We evaluate alternative hypotheses related to the microevolutionary processes (population splitting, extinction, and merging) that regulate the frequency of completed speciation across the PRB. Our results suggest that under certain combinations of archipelago characteristics and taxon traits, the repeated changes in island area and connectivity may create an opposite effect to the hypothesized "species pump" action of oscillating sea levels. Our study highlights how a microevolutionary perspective can complement current macroecological work on the Quaternary dynamics of island biodiversity. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Consequences of population topology for studying gene flow using link-based landscape genetic methods.

PubMed

van Strien, Maarten J

2017-07-01

Many landscape genetic studies aim to determine the effect of landscape on gene flow between populations. These studies frequently employ link-based methods that relate pairwise measures of historical gene flow to measures of the landscape and the geographical distance between populations. However, apart from landscape and distance, there is a third important factor that can influence historical gene flow, that is, population topology (i.e., the arrangement of populations throughout a landscape). As the population topology is determined in part by the landscape configuration, I argue that it should play a more prominent role in landscape genetics. Making use of existing literature and theoretical examples, I discuss how population topology can influence results in landscape genetic studies and how it can be taken into account to improve the accuracy of these results. In support of my arguments, I have performed a literature review of landscape genetic studies published during the first half of 2015 as well as several computer simulations of gene flow between populations. First, I argue why one should carefully consider which population pairs should be included in link-based analyses. Second, I discuss several ways in which the population topology can be incorporated in response and explanatory variables. Third, I outline why it is important to sample populations in such a way that a good representation of the population topology is obtained. Fourth, I discuss how statistical testing for link-based approaches could be influenced by the population topology. I conclude the article with six recommendations geared toward better incorporating population topology in link-based landscape genetic studies.

Sarcoptic mange breaks up bottom-up regulation of body condition in a large herbivore population.

PubMed

Carvalho, João; Granados, José E; López-Olvera, Jorge R; Cano-Manuel, Francisco Javier; Pérez, Jesús M; Fandos, Paulino; Soriguer, Ramón C; Velarde, Roser; Fonseca, Carlos; Ráez, Arian; Espinosa, José; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Serrano, Emmanuel

2015-11-06

Both parasitic load and resource availability can impact individual fitness, yet little is known about the interplay between these parameters in shaping body condition, a key determinant of fitness in wild mammals inhabiting seasonal environments. Using partial least square regressions (PLSR), we explored how temporal variation in climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics and sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) severity impacted body condition of 473 Iberian ibexes (Capra pyrenaica) harvested between 1995 and 2008 in the highly seasonal Alpine ecosystem of Sierra Nevada Natural Space (SNNS), southern Spain. Bottom-up regulation was found to only occur in healthy ibexes; the condition of infected ibexes was independent of primary productivity and snow cover. No link between ibex abundance and ibex body condition could be established when only considering infected individuals. The pernicious effects of mange on Iberian ibexes overcome the benefits of favorable environmental conditions. Even though the increase in primary production exerts a positive effect on the body condition of healthy ibexes, the scabietic individuals do not derive any advantage from increased resource availability. Further applied research coupled with continuous sanitary surveillance are needed to address remaining knowledge gaps associated with the transmission dynamics and management of sarcoptic mange in free-living populations.

Juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles linked to decadal changes in ocean circulation.

PubMed

Ascani, François; Van Houtan, Kyle S; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Jones, T Todd

2016-11-01

Given the threats of climate change, understanding the relationship of climate with long-term population dynamics is critical for wildlife conservation. Previous studies have linked decadal climate oscillations to indices of juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), but without a clear understanding of mechanisms. Here, we explore the underlying processes that may explain these relationships. Using the eddy-resolving Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, we generate hatch-year trajectories for loggerhead turtles emanating from Japan over six decades (1950-2010). We find that the proximity of the high-velocity Kuroshio Current to the primary nesting areas in southern Japan is remarkably stable and that hatchling dispersal to oceanic habitats itself does not vary on decadal timescales. However, we observe a shift in latitudes of trajectories, consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In a negative PDO phase, the Kuroshio Extension Current (KEC) is strong and acts as a physical barrier to the northward transport of neonates. As a result, hatch-year trajectories remain mostly below 35°N in the warm, unproductive region south of the Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF). During a positive PDO phase, however, the KEC weakens facilitating the neonates to swim north of the TZCF into cooler and more productive waters. As a result, annual cohorts from negative PDO years may face a lack of resources, whereas cohorts from positive PDO years may find sufficient resources during their pivotal first year. These model outputs indicate that the ocean circulation dynamics, combined with navigational swimming behavior, may be a key factor in the observed decadal variability of sea turtle populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Where are Low Mass X-ray Binaries Formed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, A.; Maccarone, T. J.; Zepf, S. E.

2004-08-01

Chandra images of nearby galaxies reveal large numbers of low mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). As in the Galaxy, a significant fraction of these are associated with globular clusters. We exploit the LMXB-globular cluster link in order to probe both the physical properties of globular clusters that promote the formation of LMXBs within clusters with specific characteristics, and to study whether the non-cluster field LMXB population was originally formed in clusters and then released into the field. The large population of globular clusters around nearby galaxies and the range of properties such as age, metallicity and host galaxy environment spanned by these objects enables us to identify and probe the link between these characteristics and the formation of LMXBs. We present the results of our study of a large sample of elliptical and S0 galaxies which reveals among other things that bright LMXBs definitively prefer metal-rich cluster hosts and that this relationship is unlikely to be driven by age effects. The ancestry of the non-cluster field LMXBs is a matter of some debate with suggestions that they they might have formed in the field, or created in globular clusters and then subsequently released into the field either by being ejected from clusters by dynamical processes or as remnants of dynamically destroyed clusters. Each of these scenarios has a specific spatial signature that can be tested by our combined optical and X-ray study. Furthermore, these scenarios predict additional statistical variations that may be driven by the specific host galaxy environment. We present a detailed analysis of our sample galaxies and comment on the probability that the field sources were actually formed in clusters.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Linking water age and solute dynamics in streamflow at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, USA

Treesearch

Paolo Benettin; Scott W. Bailey; John L. Campbell; Mark B. Green; Andrea Rinaldo; Gene E. Likens; Kevin J. McGuire; Gianluca Botter

2015-01-01

We combine experimental and modeling results from a headwater catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA, to explore the link between stream solute dynamics and water age. A theoretical framework based on water age dynamics, which represents a general basis for characterizing solute transport at the catchment scale, is here applied to...

An example of demographic anthropology, the study of matrimonial exchanges--endogamy, choice of spouse and preferential marriage.

PubMed

Cazes, Marie-Hélène

2006-09-01

The development of demographic studies in anthropology is directly linked to the success of population genetics. The anthropodemographic or anthropogenetic approach is thus underpinned by questions of genetics. While demographers focus on population dynamics and renewal in quantitative terms, population geneticists refer not to individuals but to the sets of genes carried by individuals in a population. Their aim is to detect the factors and processes which influence the genetic evolution of a group, i.e. which modify gene frequencies from one generation to the next. Among them are the factors which affect modes of reproduction. To illustrate the association of these three approaches, i.e. demographic, anthropological and genetic, I use here the example of matrimonial exchanges--which lie at the heart of the population renewal process--among the Dogon of Boni, a Malian ethnic group living in the southern Sahel. We can see how successive analyses--starting with endogamy at macroscopic level and moving down to the individual with choice of spouse and preferential marriage-- combining both quantitative and qualitative approaches, can be used to obtain a detailed description of matrimonial exchanges which shed light upon and complement the three different viewpoints.

Introgression of a Block of Genome Under Infinitesimal Selection.

PubMed

Sachdeva, Himani; Barton, Nicholas H

2018-06-12

Adaptive introgression is common in nature and can be driven by selection acting on multiple, linked genes. We explore the effects of polygenic selection on introgression under the infinitesimal model with linkage. This model assumes that the introgressing block has an effectively infinite number of loci, each with an infinitesimal effect on the trait under selection. The block is assumed to introgress under directional selection within a native population that is genetically homogeneous. We use individual-based simulations and a branching process approximation to compute various statistics of the introgressing block, and explore how these depend on parameters such as the map length and initial trait value associated with the introgressing block, the genetic variability along the block, and the strength of selection. Our results show that the introgression dynamics of a block under infinitesimal selection are qualitatively different from the dynamics of neutral introgression. We also find that in the long run, surviving descendant blocks are likely to have intermediate lengths, and clarify how their length is shaped by the interplay between linkage and infinitesimal selection. Our results suggest that it may be difficult to distinguish the long-term introgression of a block of genome with a single strongly selected locus from the introgression of a block with multiple, tightly linked and weakly selected loci. Copyright © 2018, Genetics.

Self-organized instability in complex ecosystems.

PubMed

Solé, Ricard V; Alonso, David; McKane, Alan

2002-05-29

Why are some ecosystems so rich, yet contain so many rare species? High species diversity, together with rarity, is a general trend in neotropical forests and coral reefs. However, the origin of such diversity and the consequences of food web complexity in both species abundances and temporal fluctuations are not well understood. Several regularities are observed in complex, multispecies ecosystems that suggest that these ecologies might be organized close to points of instability. We explore, in greater depth, a recent stochastic model of population dynamics that is shown to reproduce: (i) the scaling law linking species number and connectivity; (ii) the observed distributions of species abundance reported from field studies (showing long tails and thus a predominance of rare species); (iii) the complex fluctuations displayed by natural communities (including chaotic dynamics); and (iv) the species-area relations displayed by rainforest plots. It is conjectured that the conflict between the natural tendency towards higher diversity due to immigration, and the ecosystem level constraints derived from an increasing number of links, leaves the system poised at a critical boundary separating stable from unstable communities, where large fluctuations are expected to occur. We suggest that the patterns displayed by species-rich communities, including rarity, would result from such a spontaneous tendency towards instability.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-linked mutations increase the viscosity of liquid-like TDP-43 RNP granules in neurons.

PubMed

Gopal, Pallavi P; Nirschl, Jeffrey J; Klinman, Eva; Holzbaur, Erika L F

2017-03-21

Ribonucleoprotein (RNP) granules are enriched in specific RNAs and RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) and mediate critical cellular processes. Purified RBPs form liquid droplets in vitro through liquid-liquid phase separation and liquid-like non-membrane-bound structures in cells. Mutations in the human RBPs TAR-DNA binding protein 43 (TDP-43) and RNA-binding protein FUS cause amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but the biophysical properties of these proteins have not yet been studied in neurons. Here, we show that TDP-43 RNP granules in axons of rodent primary cortical neurons display liquid-like properties, including fusion with rapid relaxation to circular shape, shear stress-induced deformation, and rapid fluorescence recovery after photobleaching. RNP granules formed from wild-type TDP-43 show distinct biophysical properties depending on axonal location, suggesting maturation to a more stabilized structure is dependent on subcellular context, including local density and aging. Superresolution microscopy demonstrates that the stabilized population of TDP-43 RNP granules in the proximal axon is less circular and shows spiculated edges, whereas more distal granules are both more spherical and more dynamic. RNP granules formed by ALS-linked mutant TDP-43 are more viscous and exhibit disrupted transport dynamics. We propose these altered properties may confer toxic gain of function and reflect differential propensity for pathological transformation.

Relevance of East African Drill Cores to Human Evolution: the Case of the Olorgesailie Drilling Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potts, R.

2016-12-01

Drill cores reaching the local basement of the East African Rift were obtained in 2012 south of the Olorgesailie Basin, Kenya, 20 km from excavations that document key benchmarks in the origin of Homo sapiens. Sediments totaling 216 m were obtained from two drilling locations representing the past 1 million years. The cores were acquired to build a detailed environmental record spatially associated with the transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age technology and extensive turnover in mammalian species. The project seeks precise tests of how climate dynamics and tectonic events were linked with these transitions. Core lithology (A.K. Behrensmeyer), geochronology (A. Deino), diatoms (R.B. Owen), phytoliths (R. Kinyanjui), geochemistry (N. Rabideaux, D. Deocampo), among other indicators, show evidence of strong environmental variability in agreement with predicted high-eccentricity modulation of climate during the evolutionary transitions. Increase in hominin mobility, elaboration of symbolic behavior, and concurrent turnover in mammalian species indicating heightened adaptability to unpredictable ecosystems, point to a direct link between the evolutionary transitions and the landscape dynamics reflected in the Olorgesailie drill cores. For paleoanthropologists and Earth scientists, any link between evolutionary transitions and environmental dynamics requires robust evolutionary datasets pertinent to how selection, extinction, population divergence, and other evolutionary processes were impacted by the dynamics uncovered in drill core studies. Fossil and archeological data offer a rich source of data and of robust environment-evolution explanations that must be integrated into efforts by Earth scientists who seek to examine high-resolution climate records of human evolution. Paleoanthropological examples will illustrate the opportunities that exist for connecting evolutionary benchmarks to the data obtained from drilled African muds. Project members: R. Potts, A.K. Behrensmeyer, E. Beverly, K. Brady, J. Bright, E. Brown, J. Clark, A. Cohen, A. Deino, P. deMenocal, D. Deocampo, R. Dommain, J.T. Faith, J. King, R. Kinyanjui, N. Levin, J. Moerman, V. Muiruri, A. Noren, R.B. Owen, N. Rabideaux, R. Renaut, S. Rucina, J. Russell, J. Scott, M. Stockhecke, K. Uno

Conformational properties of glucose-based disaccharides investigated using molecular dynamics simulations with local elevation umbrella sampling.

PubMed

Perić-Hassler, Lovorka; Hansen, Halvor S; Baron, Riccardo; Hünenberger, Philippe H

2010-08-16

Explicit-solvent molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the 11 glucose-based disaccharides in water at 300K and 1bar are reported. The simulations were carried out with the GROMOS 45A4 force-field and the sampling along the glycosidic dihedral angles phi and psi was artificially enhanced using the local elevation umbrella sampling (LEUS) method. The trajectories are analyzed in terms of free-energy maps, stable and metastable conformational states (relative free energies and estimated transition timescales), intramolecular H-bonds, single molecule configurational entropies, and agreement with experimental data. All disaccharides considered are found to be characterized either by a single stable (overwhelmingly populated) state ((1-->n)-linked disaccharides with n=1, 2, 3, or 4) or by two stable (comparably populated and differing in the third glycosidic dihedral angle omega ; gg or gt) states with a low interconversion barrier ((1-->6)-linked disaccharides). Metastable (anti-phi or anti-psi) states are also identified with relative free energies in the range of 8-22 kJ mol(-1). The 11 compounds can be classified into four families: (i) the alpha(1-->1)alpha-linked disaccharide trehalose (axial-axial linkage) presents no metastable state, the lowest configurational entropy, and no intramolecular H-bonds; (ii) the four alpha(1-->n)-linked disaccharides (n=1, 2, 3, or 4; axial-equatorial linkage) present one metastable (anti-psi) state, an intermediate configurational entropy, and two alternative intramolecular H-bonds; (iii) the four beta(1-->n)-linked disaccharides (n=1, 2, 3, or 4; equatorial-equatorial linkage) present two metastable (anti-phi and anti-psi) states, an intermediate configurational entropy, and one intramolecular H-bond; (iv) the two (1-->6)-linked disaccharides (additional glycosidic dihedral angle) present no (isomaltose) or a pair of (gentiobiose) metastable (anti-phi) states, the highest configurational entropy, and no intramolecular H-bonds. The observed conformational preferences appear to be dictated by four main driving forces (ring conformational preferences, exo-anomeric effect, steric constraints, and possible presence of a third glycosidic dihedral angle), leaving a secondary role to intramolecular H-bonding and specific solvation effects. In spite of the weak conformational driving force attributed to solvent-exposed H-bonds in water (highly polar protic solvent), intramolecular H-bonds may still have a significant influence on the physico-chemical properties of the disaccharide by decreasing its hydrophilicity. Along with previous work, the results also complete the suggestion of a spectrum of approximate transition timescales for carbohydrates up to the disaccharide level, namely: approximately 30 ps (hydroxyl groups), approximately 1 ns (free lactol group, free hydroxymethyl groups, glycosidic dihedral angleomega in (1-->6)-linked disaccharides), approximately 10 ns to 2 micros (ring conformation, glycosidic dihedral angles phi and psi). The calculated average values of the glycosidic torsional angles agree well with the available experimental data, providing validation for the force-field and simulation methodology employed. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multimodal microfluidic platform for controlled culture and analysis of unicellular organisms.

PubMed

Geng, Tao; Smallwood, Chuck R; Bredeweg, Erin L; Pomraning, Kyle R; Plymale, Andrew E; Baker, Scott E; Evans, James E; Kelly, Ryan T

2017-09-01

Modern live-cell imaging approaches permit real-time visualization of biological processes, yet limitations exist for unicellular organism isolation, culturing, and long-term imaging that preclude fully understanding how cells sense and respond to environmental perturbations and the link between single-cell variability and whole-population dynamics. Here, we present a microfluidic platform that provides fine control over the local environment with the capacity to replace media components at any experimental time point, and provides both perfused and compartmentalized cultivation conditions depending on the valve configuration. The functionality and flexibility of the platform were validated using both bacteria and yeast having different sizes, motility, and growth media. The demonstrated ability to track the growth and dynamics of both motile and non-motile prokaryotic and eukaryotic organisms emphasizes the versatility of the devices, which should enable studies in bioenergy and environmental research.

Reputation drives cooperative behaviour and network formation in human groups.

PubMed

Cuesta, Jose A; Gracia-Lázaro, Carlos; Ferrer, Alfredo; Moreno, Yamir; Sánchez, Angel

2015-01-19

Cooperativeness is a defining feature of human nature. Theoreticians have suggested several mechanisms to explain this ubiquitous phenomenon, including reciprocity, reputation, and punishment, but the problem is still unsolved. Here we show, through experiments conducted with groups of people playing an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma on a dynamic network, that it is reputation what really fosters cooperation. While this mechanism has already been observed in unstructured populations, we find that it acts equally when interactions are given by a network that players can reconfigure dynamically. Furthermore, our observations reveal that memory also drives the network formation process, and cooperators assort more, with longer link lifetimes, the longer the past actions record. Our analysis demonstrates, for the first time, that reputation can be very well quantified as a weighted mean of the fractions of past cooperative acts and the last action performed. This finding has potential applications in collaborative systems and e-commerce.

Human dynamics revealed through Web analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, Bruno; Ramasco, José J.

2008-08-01

The increasing ubiquity of Internet access and the frequency with which people interact with it raise the possibility of using the Web to better observe, understand, and monitor several aspects of human social behavior. Web sites with large numbers of frequently returning users are ideal for this task. If these sites belong to companies or universities, their usage patterns can furnish information about the working habits of entire populations. In this work, we analyze the properly anonymized logs detailing the access history to Emory University’s Web site. Emory is a medium-sized university located in Atlanta, Georgia. We find interesting structure in the activity patterns of the domain and study in a systematic way the main forces behind the dynamics of the traffic. In particular, we find that linear preferential linking, priority-based queuing, and the decay of interest for the contents of the pages are the essential ingredients to understand the way users navigate the Web.

Reputation drives cooperative behaviour and network formation in human groups

PubMed Central

Cuesta, Jose A.; Gracia-Lázaro, Carlos; Ferrer, Alfredo; Moreno, Yamir; Sánchez, Angel

2015-01-01

Cooperativeness is a defining feature of human nature. Theoreticians have suggested several mechanisms to explain this ubiquitous phenomenon, including reciprocity, reputation, and punishment, but the problem is still unsolved. Here we show, through experiments conducted with groups of people playing an iterated Prisoner's Dilemma on a dynamic network, that it is reputation what really fosters cooperation. While this mechanism has already been observed in unstructured populations, we find that it acts equally when interactions are given by a network that players can reconfigure dynamically. Furthermore, our observations reveal that memory also drives the network formation process, and cooperators assort more, with longer link lifetimes, the longer the past actions record. Our analysis demonstrates, for the first time, that reputation can be very well quantified as a weighted mean of the fractions of past cooperative acts and the last action performed. This finding has potential applications in collaborative systems and e-commerce. PMID:25598347

A New Model for the Estimation of Cell Proliferation Dynamics Using CFSE Data

PubMed Central

Banks, H.T.; Sutton, Karyn L.; Thompson, W. Clayton; Bocharov, Gennady; Doumic, Marie; Schenkel, Tim; Argilaguet, Jordi; Giest, Sandra; Peligero, Cristina; Meyerhans, Andreas

2011-01-01

CFSE analysis of a proliferating cell population is a popular tool for the study of cell division and division-linked changes in cell behavior. Recently [13, 43, 45], a partial differential equation (PDE) model to describe lymphocyte dynamics in a CFSE proliferation assay was proposed. We present a significant revision of this model which improves the physiological understanding of several parameters. Namely, the parameter γ used previously as a heuristic explanation for the dilution of CFSE dye by cell division is replaced with a more physical component, cellular autofluorescence. The rate at which label decays is also quantified using a Gompertz decay process. We then demonstrate a revised method of fitting the model to the commonly used histogram representation of the data. It is shown that these improvements result in a model with a strong physiological basis which is fully capable of replicating the behavior observed in the data. PMID:21889510

Linking Demographic Processes of Juvenile Corals to Benthic Recovery Trajectories in Two Common Reef Habitats

PubMed Central

Doropoulos, Christopher; Ward, Selina; Roff, George; González-Rivero, Manuel; Mumby, Peter J.

2015-01-01

Tropical reefs are dynamic ecosystems that host diverse coral assemblages with different life-history strategies. Here, we quantified how juvenile (<50 mm) coral demographics influenced benthic coral structure in reef flat and reef slope habitats on the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Permanent plots and settlement tiles were monitored every six months for three years in each habitat. These environments exhibited profound differences: the reef slope was characterised by 95% less macroalgal cover, and twice the amount of available settlement substrata and rates of coral settlement than the reef flat. Consequently, post-settlement coral survival in the reef slope was substantially higher than that of the reef flat, and resulted in a rapid increase in coral cover from 7 to 31% in 2.5 years. In contrast, coral cover on the reef flat remained low (~10%), whereas macroalgal cover increased from 23 to 45%. A positive stock-recruitment relationship was found in brooding corals in both habitats; however, brooding corals were not directly responsible for the observed changes in coral cover. Rather, the rapid increase on the reef slope resulted from high abundances of broadcast spawning Acropora recruits. Incorporating our results into transition matrix models demonstrated that most corals escape mortality once they exceed 50 mm, but for smaller corals mortality in brooders was double those of spawners (i.e. acroporids and massive corals). For corals on the reef flat, sensitivity analysis demonstrated that growth and mortality of larger juveniles (21–50 mm) highly influenced population dynamics; whereas the recruitment, growth and mortality of smaller corals (<20 mm) had the highest influence on reef slope population dynamics. Our results provide insight into the population dynamics and recovery trajectories in disparate reef habitats, and highlight the importance of acroporid recruitment in driving rapid increases in coral cover following large-scale perturbation in reef slope environments. PMID:26009892

Recognition of the 3′ splice site RNA by the U2AF heterodimer involves a dynamic population shift

PubMed Central

Voith von Voithenberg, Lena; Sánchez-Rico, Carolina; Kang, Hyun-Seo; Madl, Tobias; Zanier, Katia; Barth, Anders; Warner, Lisa R.; Sattler, Michael; Lamb, Don C.

2016-01-01

An essential early step in the assembly of human spliceosomes onto pre-mRNA involves the recognition of regulatory RNA cis elements in the 3′ splice site by the U2 auxiliary factor (U2AF). The large (U2AF65) and small (U2AF35) subunits of the U2AF heterodimer contact the polypyrimidine tract (Py-tract) and the AG-dinucleotide, respectively. The tandem RNA recognition motif domains (RRM1,2) of U2AF65 adopt closed/inactive and open/active conformations in the free form and when bound to bona fide Py-tract RNA ligands. To investigate the molecular mechanism and dynamics of 3′ splice site recognition by U2AF65 and the role of U2AF35 in the U2AF heterodimer, we have combined single-pair FRET and NMR experiments. In the absence of RNA, the RRM1,2 domain arrangement is highly dynamic on a submillisecond time scale, switching between closed and open conformations. The addition of Py-tract RNA ligands with increasing binding affinity (strength) gradually shifts the equilibrium toward an open conformation. Notably, the protein–RNA complex is rigid in the presence of a strong Py-tract but exhibits internal motion with weak Py-tracts. Surprisingly, the presence of U2AF35, whose UHM domain interacts with U2AF65 RRM1, increases the population of the open arrangement of U2AF65 RRM1,2 in the absence and presence of a weak Py-tract. These data indicate that the U2AF heterodimer promotes spliceosome assembly by a dynamic population shift toward the open conformation of U2AF65 to facilitate the recognition of weak Py-tracts at the 3′ splice site. The structure and RNA binding of the heterodimer was unaffected by cancer-linked myelodysplastic syndrome mutants. PMID:27799531

Linking demographic processes of juvenile corals to benthic recovery trajectories in two common reef habitats.

PubMed

Doropoulos, Christopher; Ward, Selina; Roff, George; González-Rivero, Manuel; Mumby, Peter J

2015-01-01

Tropical reefs are dynamic ecosystems that host diverse coral assemblages with different life-history strategies. Here, we quantified how juvenile (<50 mm) coral demographics influenced benthic coral structure in reef flat and reef slope habitats on the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Permanent plots and settlement tiles were monitored every six months for three years in each habitat. These environments exhibited profound differences: the reef slope was characterised by 95% less macroalgal cover, and twice the amount of available settlement substrata and rates of coral settlement than the reef flat. Consequently, post-settlement coral survival in the reef slope was substantially higher than that of the reef flat, and resulted in a rapid increase in coral cover from 7 to 31% in 2.5 years. In contrast, coral cover on the reef flat remained low (~10%), whereas macroalgal cover increased from 23 to 45%. A positive stock-recruitment relationship was found in brooding corals in both habitats; however, brooding corals were not directly responsible for the observed changes in coral cover. Rather, the rapid increase on the reef slope resulted from high abundances of broadcast spawning Acropora recruits. Incorporating our results into transition matrix models demonstrated that most corals escape mortality once they exceed 50 mm, but for smaller corals mortality in brooders was double those of spawners (i.e. acroporids and massive corals). For corals on the reef flat, sensitivity analysis demonstrated that growth and mortality of larger juveniles (21-50 mm) highly influenced population dynamics; whereas the recruitment, growth and mortality of smaller corals (<20 mm) had the highest influence on reef slope population dynamics. Our results provide insight into the population dynamics and recovery trajectories in disparate reef habitats, and highlight the importance of acroporid recruitment in driving rapid increases in coral cover following large-scale perturbation in reef slope environments.

The evolving cobweb of relations among partially rational investors

PubMed Central

DiMeglio, Anna; Garofalo, Franco; Lo Iudice, Francesco

2017-01-01

To overcome the limitations of neoclassical economics, researchers have leveraged tools of statistical physics to build novel theories. The idea was to elucidate the macroscopic features of financial markets from the interaction of its microscopic constituents, the investors. In this framework, the model of the financial agents has been kept separate from that of their interaction. Here, instead, we explore the possibility of letting the interaction topology emerge from the model of the agents’ behavior. Then, we investigate how the emerging cobweb of relationship affects the overall market dynamics. To this aim, we leverage tools from complex systems analysis and nonlinear dynamics, and model the network of mutual influence as the output of a dynamical system describing the edge evolution. In this work, the driver of the link evolution is the relative reputation between possibly coupled agents. The reputation is built differently depending on the extent of rationality of the investors. The continuous edge activation or deactivation induces the emergence of leaders and of peculiar network structures, typical of real influence networks. The subsequent impact on the market dynamics is investigated through extensive numerical simulations in selected scenarios populated by partially rational investors. PMID:28196144

The evolving cobweb of relations among partially rational investors.

PubMed

DeLellis, Pietro; DiMeglio, Anna; Garofalo, Franco; Lo Iudice, Francesco

2017-01-01

To overcome the limitations of neoclassical economics, researchers have leveraged tools of statistical physics to build novel theories. The idea was to elucidate the macroscopic features of financial markets from the interaction of its microscopic constituents, the investors. In this framework, the model of the financial agents has been kept separate from that of their interaction. Here, instead, we explore the possibility of letting the interaction topology emerge from the model of the agents' behavior. Then, we investigate how the emerging cobweb of relationship affects the overall market dynamics. To this aim, we leverage tools from complex systems analysis and nonlinear dynamics, and model the network of mutual influence as the output of a dynamical system describing the edge evolution. In this work, the driver of the link evolution is the relative reputation between possibly coupled agents. The reputation is built differently depending on the extent of rationality of the investors. The continuous edge activation or deactivation induces the emergence of leaders and of peculiar network structures, typical of real influence networks. The subsequent impact on the market dynamics is investigated through extensive numerical simulations in selected scenarios populated by partially rational investors.

47 CFR 27.14 - Construction requirements; Criteria for renewal.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...'s population by March 13, 2017, and to at least 75 percent of the license area's population by...-point links per million persons (one link per 67,000 persons) in a license area by March 13, 2017, and...-point links by March 13, 2017, and a minimum of 15 point-to-point links by September 13, 2019. (4) Under...

Reversible Nuclear-Lipid-Droplet Morphology Induced by Oleic Acid: A Link to Cellular-Lipid Metabolism

PubMed Central

Lagrutta, Lucía C.; Montero-Villegas, Sandra; Layerenza, Juan P.; Sisti, Martín S.; García de Bravo, Margarita M.

2017-01-01

Neutral lipids—involved in many cellular processes—are stored as lipid droplets (LD), those mainly cytosolic (cLD) along with a small nuclear population (nLD). nLD could be involved in nuclear-lipid homeostasis serving as an endonuclear buffering system that would provide or incorporate lipids and proteins involved in signalling pathways as transcription factors and as enzymes of lipid metabolism and nuclear processes. Our aim was to determine if nLD constituted a dynamic domain. Oleic-acid (OA) added to rat hepatocytes or HepG2 cells in culture produced cellular-phenotypic LD modifications: increases in TAG, CE, C, and PL content and in cLD and nLD numbers and sizes. LD increments were reversed on exclusion of OA and were prevented by inhibition of acyl-CoA synthetase (with Triacsin C) and thus lipid biosynthesis. Under all conditions, nLD corresponded to a small population (2–10%) of total cellular LD. The anabolism triggered by OA, involving morphologic and size changes within the cLD and nLD populations, was reversed by a net balance of catabolism, upon eliminating OA. These catabolic processes included lipolysis and the mobilization of hydrolyzed FA from the LD to cytosolic-oxidation sites. These results would imply that nLD are actively involved in nuclear processes that include lipids. In conclusion, nLD are a dynamic nuclear domain since they are modified by OA through a reversible mechanism in combination with cLD; this process involves acyl-CoA-synthetase activity; ongoing TAG, CE, and PL biosynthesis. Thus, liver nLD and cLD are both dynamic cellular organelles. PMID:28125673

Propionibacterium acnes populations involved in deep pathological samples and their dynamics along the cardiac surgical pathway.

PubMed

Romano-Bertrand, S; Beretta, M; Jean-Pierre, H; Frapier, J-M; Calvet, B; Parer, S; Jumas-Bilak, E

2015-02-01

Propionibacterium acnes belongs to the normal skin microbiota, but it is also responsible for acne vulgaris and causes serious infections such as endocarditis and surgical site infections (SSI). The P. acnes population is structured into phylogenetic groups, with phylotype I being associated with acne. Herein, we explore the link between phylotypes and clinical origins in a collection of P. acnes isolated from different body sites, involved in deep infections or healthcare-associated infections (HAI), with particular emphasis on strains from cardiac SSI. Cardiac SSI have been further studied in terms of P. acnes population dynamics during the care pathway. The recA and tly genes phylotypes were compared to hemolytic behavior, susceptibility to antimicrobial agents, and clinical origins. An original approach of recA polymerase chain reaction temporal temperature gel electrophoresis (PCR-TTGE) was developed and applied for the direct identification of P. acnes phylotypes in surgical samples, in order to assess their temporal dynamics during the surgical course. Our results underlined the preferential involvement of IA-2/IB and II phylogroups in HAI and SSI. Unlike IA and II, type IA-2/IB presented a gradual increase with the depth of sampling in the peroperative phase of cardiac surgery. Phylotypes IA and IA-2/IB were both predominant in scar tissues and on postoperative skin, suggesting a specific predisposition to recolonize skin. Particular association of the phylotype IA-2/IB with SSI and its propensity to colonize wounds in cardiac surgery was observed. We assumed that the follow-up of P. acnes phylotypes during pathological processes could give new clues for P. acnes pathogenicity.

Stochastic dynamics of adaptive trait and neutral marker driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks.

PubMed

Billiard, Sylvain; Ferrière, Régis; Méléard, Sylvie; Tran, Viet Chi

2015-11-01

How the neutral diversity is affected by selection and adaptation is investigated in an eco-evolutionary framework. In our model, we study a finite population in continuous time, where each individual is characterized by a trait under selection and a completely linked neutral marker. Population dynamics are driven by births and deaths, mutations at birth, and competition between individuals. Trait values influence ecological processes (demographic events, competition), and competition generates selection on trait variation, thus closing the eco-evolutionary feedback loop. The demographic effects of the trait are also expected to influence the generation and maintenance of neutral variation. We consider a large population limit with rare mutation, under the assumption that the neutral marker mutates faster than the trait under selection. We prove the convergence of the stochastic individual-based process to a new measure-valued diffusive process with jumps that we call Substitution Fleming-Viot Process (SFVP). When restricted to the trait space this process is the Trait Substitution Sequence first introduced by Metz et al. (1996). During the invasion of a favorable mutation, a genetical bottleneck occurs and the marker associated with this favorable mutant is hitchhiked. By rigorously analysing the hitchhiking effect and how the neutral diversity is restored afterwards, we obtain the condition for a time-scale separation; under this condition, we show that the marker distribution is approximated by a Fleming-Viot distribution between two trait substitutions. We discuss the implications of the SFVP for our understanding of the dynamics of neutral variation under eco-evolutionary feedbacks and illustrate the main phenomena with simulations. Our results highlight the joint importance of mutations, ecological parameters, and trait values in the restoration of neutral diversity after a selective sweep.

The counterbend dynamics of cross-linked filament bundles and flagella

PubMed Central

Coy, Rachel

2017-01-01

Cross-linked filament bundles, such as in cilia and flagella, are ubiquitous in biology. They are considered in textbooks as simple filaments with larger stiffness. Recent observations of flagellar counterbend, however, show that induction of curvature in one section of a passive flagellum instigates a compensatory counter-curvature elsewhere, exposing the intricate role of the diminutive cross-linking proteins at large scales. We show that this effect, a material property of the cross-linking mechanics, modifies the bundle dynamics and induces a bimodal L2 − L3 length-dependent material response that departs from the Euler–Bernoulli theory. Hence, the use of simpler theories to analyse experiments can result in paradoxical interpretations. Remarkably, the counterbend dynamics instigates counter-waves in opposition to driven oscillations in distant parts of the bundle, with potential impact on the regulation of flagellar bending waves. These results have a range of physical and biological applications, including the empirical disentanglement of material quantities via counterbend dynamics. PMID:28566516

Numerical and behavioral effects within a pulse-driven system: consequences for shared prey.

PubMed

Schmidt, Kenneth A; Ostfeld, Richard S

2008-03-01

Some of the clearest examples of the ramifying effects of resource pulses exist in deciduous forests dominated by mast-producing trees, such as oaks, beech, and hornbeam. Seed production in these forests represents only the first of several pulsed events. Secondary pulses emerge as mast-consuming small rodents numerically respond to seed production and tertiary pulses emerge as generalist predators numerically respond to rodents. Raptors may also respond behaviorally (i.e., diet shifts) to subsequent crashes in small rodents following the crash phase in seed production. In oak-dominated forest in the Hudson Valley, New York, these various pulse and crash phases act synergistically, although not simultaneously, to influence thrush population dynamics through predation on nests, juveniles, and adults. As a consequence, factors limiting population growth rate and their age-specific action vary as a function of past acorn production. We highlight these interactions based on our eight-year study of thrush demography, acorn production, and small mammal abundance coupled with information on regional adult thrush population trends from the Breeding Bird Survey. We use these data sets to demonstrate the sequence of primary to tertiary pulses and how they influence breeding thrush populations. To extend our discussion beyond masting phenomena in the eastern United States, we briefly review the literature of alternative avian prey within pulsed systems to show (1) numerical and behavioral responses by generalist predators are ubiquitous in pulsed systems, and this contributes to (2) variability in reproduction and survivorship of avian prey linked to the underlying dynamics of the pulse. We conclude by exploring the broad consequences of cascading resource pulses for alternative prey based upon the indirect interaction of apparent competition among shared prey and the nature of temporal variability on populations.

Exploring the effect of drought extent and interval on the Florida snail kite: Interplay between spatial and temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; Bennetts, Robert E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2002-01-01

The paper aims at exploring the viability of the Florida snail kite population under various drought regimes in its wetland habitat. The population dynamics of snail kites are strongly linked with the hydrology of the system due to the dependence of this bird species on one exclusive prey species, the apple snail, which is negatively affected by a drying out of habitat. Based on empirical evidence, it has been hypothesised that the viability of the snail kite population critically depends not only on the time interval between droughts, but also on the spatial extent of these droughts. A system wide drought is likely to result in reduced reproduction and increased mortality, whereas the birds can respond to local droughts by moving to sites where conditions are still favourable. This paper explores the implications of this hypothesis by means of a spatially-explicit individual-based model. The specific aim of the model is to study in a factorial design the dynamics of the kite population in relation to two scale parameters, the temporal interval between droughts and the spatial correlation between droughts. In the model high drought frequencies led to reduced numbers of kites. Also, habitat degradation due to prolonged periods of inundation led to lower predicted numbers of kites. Another main result was that when the spatial correlation between droughts was low, the model showed little variability in the predicted numbers of kites. But when droughts occurred mostly on a system wide level, environmental stochasticity strongly increased the stochasticity in kite numbers and in the worst case the viability of the kite population was seriously threatened.

How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Thomas; Olson, K.A.; Dressler, G.; Leimgruber, Peter; Fuller, Todd K.; Nicholson, Craig; Novaro, A.J.; Bolgeri, M.J.; Wattles, David W.; DeStefano, Stephen; Calabrese, J.M.; Fagan, William F.

2011-01-01

Aim  To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species.Locations  Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia.Methods  We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity.Results  Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape.Main conclusions  We show how broad-scale landscape unpredictability may lead to nomadism, an understudied type of long-distance movement. In contrast to classical migration where landscapes may vary at broad scales but in a predictable manner, long-distance movements of nomadic individuals are uncoordinated and independent from other such individuals. Landscapes with little broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity feature smaller-scale movements and allow for range residency. Nomadism requires distinct integrative conservation strategies that facilitate long-distance movements across the entire landscape and are not limited to certain migration corridors.

How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, T.; Olson, K.A.; Dressler, G.; Leimgruber, P.; Fuller, T.K.; Nicolson, C.; Novaro, A.J.; Bolgeri, M.J.; Wattles, David W.; DeStefano, S.; Calabrese, J.M.; Fagan, W.F.

2011-01-01

Aim To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species. Locations Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia. Methods We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity. Results Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape. Main conclusions We show how broad-scale landscape unpredictability may lead to nomadism, an understudied type of long-distance movement. In contrast to classical migration where landscapes may vary at broad scales but in a predictable manner, long-distance movements of nomadic individuals are uncoordinated and independent from other such individuals. Landscapes with little broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity feature smaller-scale movements and allow for range residency. Nomadism requires distinct integrative conservation strategies that facilitate long-distance movements across the entire landscape and are not limited to certain migration corridors. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Moving Contact Lines: Linking Molecular Dynamics and Continuum-Scale Modeling.

PubMed

Smith, Edward R; Theodorakis, Panagiotis E; Craster, Richard V; Matar, Omar K

2018-05-17

Despite decades of research, the modeling of moving contact lines has remained a formidable challenge in fluid dynamics whose resolution will impact numerous industrial, biological, and daily life applications. On the one hand, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation has the ability to provide unique insight into the microscopic details that determine the dynamic behavior of the contact line, which is not possible with either continuum-scale simulations or experiments. On the other hand, continuum-based models provide a link to the macroscopic description of the system. In this Feature Article, we explore the complex range of physical factors, including the presence of surfactants, which governs the contact line motion through MD simulations. We also discuss links between continuum- and molecular-scale modeling and highlight the opportunities for future developments in this area.

A Model for the Epigenetic Switch Linking Inflammation to Cell Transformation: Deterministic and Stochastic Approaches

PubMed Central

Gérard, Claude; Gonze, Didier; Lemaigre, Frédéric; Novák, Béla

2014-01-01

Recently, a molecular pathway linking inflammation to cell transformation has been discovered. This molecular pathway rests on a positive inflammatory feedback loop between NF-κB, Lin28, Let-7 microRNA and IL6, which leads to an epigenetic switch allowing cell transformation. A transient activation of an inflammatory signal, mediated by the oncoprotein Src, activates NF-κB, which elicits the expression of Lin28. Lin28 decreases the expression of Let-7 microRNA, which results in higher level of IL6 than achieved directly by NF-κB. In turn, IL6 can promote NF-κB activation. Finally, IL6 also elicits the synthesis of STAT3, which is a crucial activator for cell transformation. Here, we propose a computational model to account for the dynamical behavior of this positive inflammatory feedback loop. By means of a deterministic model, we show that an irreversible bistable switch between a transformed and a non-transformed state of the cell is at the core of the dynamical behavior of the positive feedback loop linking inflammation to cell transformation. The model indicates that inhibitors (tumor suppressors) or activators (oncogenes) of this positive feedback loop regulate the occurrence of the epigenetic switch by modulating the threshold of inflammatory signal (Src) needed to promote cell transformation. Both stochastic simulations and deterministic simulations of a heterogeneous cell population suggest that random fluctuations (due to molecular noise or cell-to-cell variability) are able to trigger cell transformation. Moreover, the model predicts that oncogenes/tumor suppressors respectively decrease/increase the robustness of the non-transformed state of the cell towards random fluctuations. Finally, the model accounts for the potential effect of competing endogenous RNAs, ceRNAs, on the dynamics of the epigenetic switch. Depending on their microRNA targets, the model predicts that ceRNAs could act as oncogenes or tumor suppressors by regulating the occurrence of cell transformation. PMID:24499937

Rheology of wormlike micellar fluids from Brownian and molecular dynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padding, J. T.; Boek, E. S.; Briels, W. J.

2005-11-01

There is a great need for understanding the link between the detailed chemistry of surfactants, forming wormlike micelles, and their macroscopic rheological properties. In this paper we show how this link may be explored through particle simulations. First we review an existing bead-spring model. We find that shear flow enhances the formation of rings at the expense of linear chains. The shear viscosity of this model is dominated by solvent contributions, however, and the link with the chemistry of the surfactants is missing. We introduce a more realistic Brownian dynamics model, the parameters of which are measured from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations.

High-sensitivity DPSK receiver for high-bandwidth free-space optical communication links.

PubMed

Juarez, Juan C; Young, David W; Sluz, Joseph E; Stotts, Larry B

2011-05-23

A high-sensitivity modem and high-dynamic range optical automatic gain controller (OAGC) have been developed to provide maximum link margin and to overcome the dynamic nature of free-space optical links. A sensitivity of -48.9 dBm (10 photons per bit) at 10 Gbps was achieved employing a return-to-zero differential phase shift keying based modem and a commercial Reed-Solomon forward error correction system. Low-noise optical gain was provided by an OAGC with a noise figure of 4.1 dB (including system required input loses) and a dynamic range of greater than 60 dB.

Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: A modeling approach for river ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bellmore, J. Ryan; Benjamin, Joseph R.; Newsom, Michael; Bountry, Jennifer A.; Dombroski, Daniel

2017-01-01

Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration planning we constructed a model that links river food web dynamics to in-stream physical habitat and riparian vegetation conditions. We present an application of the model to the Methow River, Washington (USA), a location of on-going restoration aimed at recovering salmon. Three restoration strategies were simulated: riparian vegetation restoration, nutrient augmentation via salmon carcass addition, and side-channel reconnection. We also added populations of nonnative aquatic snails and fish to the modeled food web to explore how changes in food web structure mediate responses to restoration. Simulations suggest that side-channel reconnection may be a better strategy than carcass addition and vegetation planting for improving conditions for salmon in this river segment. However, modeled responses were strongly sensitive to changes in the structure of the food web. The addition of nonnative snails and fish modified pathways of energy through the food web, which negated restoration improvements. This finding illustrates that forecasting responses to restoration may require accounting for the structure of food webs, and that changes in this structure—as might be expected with the spread of invasive species—could compromise restoration outcomes. Unlike habitat-based approaches to restoration assessment that focus on the direct effects of physical habitat conditions on single species of interest, our approach dynamically links the success of target organisms to the success of competitors, predators, and prey. By elucidating the direct and indirect pathways by which restoration affects target species, dynamic food web models can improve restoration planning by fostering a deeper understanding of system connectedness and dynamics.

CHALLENGES AND SUCCESSES MODELING THE INFLUENCES OF LAND USE CHANGES ON MERCURY DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

Linked sets of atmospheric, watershed, water body, and food web models and supporting data are required to evaluate the effectiveness of proposals to regulate atmospheric mercury emissions. Simulating mercury dynamics in watersheds is a key step linking changes in atmospheric de...

Graph regularized nonnegative matrix factorization for temporal link prediction in dynamic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiaoke; Sun, Penggang; Wang, Yu

2018-04-01

Many networks derived from society and nature are temporal and incomplete. The temporal link prediction problem in networks is to predict links at time T + 1 based on a given temporal network from time 1 to T, which is essential to important applications. The current algorithms either predict the temporal links by collapsing the dynamic networks or collapsing features derived from each network, which are criticized for ignoring the connection among slices. to overcome the issue, we propose a novel graph regularized nonnegative matrix factorization algorithm (GrNMF) for the temporal link prediction problem without collapsing the dynamic networks. To obtain the feature for each network from 1 to t, GrNMF factorizes the matrix associated with networks by setting the rest networks as regularization, which provides a better way to characterize the topological information of temporal links. Then, the GrNMF algorithm collapses the feature matrices to predict temporal links. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, the proposed algorithm exhibits significantly improved accuracy by avoiding the collapse of temporal networks. Experimental results of a number of artificial and real temporal networks illustrate that the proposed method is not only more accurate but also more robust than state-of-the-art approaches.

Colonial Era Impoundment of the Northeastern United States: Beaver Trapping and Low- head Dam Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salant, N.; Bain, D.; Brandt, S.

2008-12-01

Hydrologic systems of the northeastern United States were transformed by European settler activities. The colonial economy shifted engineered water structures from beaver dams to human dams built for power generation. While the geomorphic effects of human-constructed dams have recently garnered considerable attention, few studies have investigated how intensive trapping for the fur trade, the near extermination of the Northeast beaver population, and the consequent loss of beaver ponds altered the regional water balance. Although reconstructions of colonial beaver populations have been made, none link the decline in beavers to its hydrologic impact. Beaver population models based on pre-colonial population estimates, historic harvest rates, and current-day population dynamics were used to simulate the corresponding decrease in pond numbers over time. Beaver populations declined dramatically during the seventeenth century, with harvest rates estimated at 2,000-10,000 beavers per year, resulting in expatriation in some sub-regions by the early 1700s. Using contemporary estimates of beaver pond volumes, the calculated loss in pond storage between 1600 and 1840 was approximately 17 million cubic meters of water and sediment, considerably larger than estimated storage gains from dam construction in the same period, suggesting that beaver eradication was a major driver of hydrologic change during the colonial era.

The Coordination Dynamics of Observational Learning: Relative Motion Direction and Relative Phase as Informational Content Linking Action-Perception to Action-Production.

PubMed

Buchanan, John J

2016-01-01

The primary goal of this chapter is to merge together the visual perception perspective of observational learning and the coordination dynamics theory of pattern formation in perception and action. Emphasis is placed on identifying movement features that constrain and inform action-perception and action-production processes. Two sources of visual information are examined, relative motion direction and relative phase. The visual perception perspective states that the topological features of relative motion between limbs and joints remains invariant across an actor's motion and therefore are available for pickup by an observer. Relative phase has been put forth as an informational variable that links perception to action within the coordination dynamics theory. A primary assumption of the coordination dynamics approach is that environmental information is meaningful only in terms of the behavior it modifies. Across a series of single limb tasks and bimanual tasks it is shown that the relative motion and relative phase between limbs and joints is picked up through visual processes and supports observational learning of motor skills. Moreover, internal estimations of motor skill proficiency and competency are linked to the informational content found in relative motion and relative phase. Thus, the chapter links action to perception and vice versa and also links cognitive evaluations to the coordination dynamics that support action-perception and action-production processes.

Yield and Failure Behavior Investigated for Cross-Linked Phenolic Resins Using Molecular Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monk, Joshua D.; Lawson, John W.

2016-01-01

Molecular dynamics simulations were conducted to fundamentally evaluate the yield and failure behavior of cross-linked phenolic resins at temperatures below the glass transition. Yield stress was investigated at various temperatures, strain rates, and degrees of cross-linking. The onset of non-linear behavior in the cross-linked phenolic structures was caused by localized irreversible molecular rearrangements through the rotation of methylene linkers followed by the formation or annihilation of neighboring hydrogen bonds. The yield stress results, with respect to temperature and strain rate, could be fit by existing models used to describe yield behavior of amorphous glasses. The degree of cross-linking only indirectly influences the maximum yield stress through its influence on glass transition temperature (Tg), however there is a strong relationship between the degree of cross-linking and the failure mechanism. Low cross-linked samples were able to separate through void formation, whereas the highly cross-linked structures exhibited bond scission.

Testing the effects of adolescent alcohol use on adult conflict-related theta dynamics.

PubMed

Harper, Jeremy; Malone, Stephen M; Iacono, William G

2017-11-01

Adolescent alcohol use (AAU) is associated with brain anomalies, but less is known about long-term neurocognitive effects. Despite theoretical models linking AAU to diminished cognitive control, empirical work testing this relationship with specific cognitive control neural correlates (e.g., prefrontal theta-band EEG dynamics) remains scarce. A longitudinal twin design was used to test the hypothesis that greater AAU is associated with reduced conflict-related EEG theta-band dynamics in adulthood, and to examine the genetic/environmental etiology of this association. In a large (N=718) population-based prospective twin sample, AAU was assessed at ages 11/14/17. Twins completed a flanker task at age 29 to elicit EEG theta-band medial frontal cortex (MFC) power and medial-dorsal prefrontal cortex (MFC-dPFC) connectivity. Two complementary analytic methods (cotwin control analysis; biometric modeling) were used to disentangle the genetic/shared environmental risk towards AAU from possible alcohol exposure effects on theta dynamics. AAU was negatively associated with adult cognitive control-related theta-band MFC power and MFC-dPFC functional connectivity. Genetic influences primarily underlie these associations. Findings provide strong evidence that genetic factors underlie the comorbidity between AAU and diminished cognitive control-related theta dynamics in adulthood. Conflict-related theta-band dynamics appear to be candidate brain-based endophenotypes/mechanisms for AAU. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-scale impacts of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on intertidal sea stars and implications for recovery

PubMed Central

Burnaford, Jennifer L.; Ambrose, Richard F.; Antrim, Liam; Bohlmann, Heath; Blanchette, Carol A.; Engle, John M.; Fradkin, Steven C.; Gaddam, Rani; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Miner, Benjamin G.; Murray, Steven N.; Smith, Jayson R.; Whitaker, Stephen G.; Raimondi, Peter T.

2018-01-01

Disease outbreaks can have substantial impacts on wild populations, but the often patchy or anecdotal evidence of these impacts impedes our ability to understand outbreak dynamics. Recently however, a severe disease outbreak occurred in a group of very well-studied organisms–sea stars along the west coast of North America. We analyzed nearly two decades of data from a coordinated monitoring effort at 88 sites ranging from southern British Columbia to San Diego, California along with 2 sites near Sitka, Alaska to better understand the effects of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on the keystone intertidal predator, Pisaster ochraceus. Quantitative surveys revealed unprecedented declines of P. ochraceus in 2014 and 2015 across nearly the entire geographic range of the species. The intensity of the impact of SSWD was not uniform across the affected area, with proportionally greater population declines in the southern regions relative to the north. The degree of population decline was unrelated to pre-outbreak P. ochraceus density, although these factors have been linked in other well-documented disease events. While elevated seawater temperatures were not broadly linked to the initial emergence of SSWD, anomalously high seawater temperatures in 2014 and 2015 might have exacerbated the disease’s impact. Both before and after the onset of the SSWD outbreak, we documented higher recruitment of P. ochraceus in the north than in the south, and while some juveniles are surviving (as evidenced by transition of recruitment pulses to larger size classes), post-SSWD survivorship is lower than during pre-SSWD periods. In hindsight, our data suggest that the SSWD event defied prediction based on two factors found to be important in other marine disease events, sea water temperature and population density, and illustrate the importance of surveillance of natural populations as one element of an integrated approach to marine disease ecology. Low levels of SSWD-symptomatic sea stars are still present throughout the impacted range, thus the outlook for population recovery is uncertain. PMID:29558484

[Fibromyalgia: from public issue to the patient experience].

PubMed

Nacu, Alexandra; Benamouzig, Daniel

2010-01-01

Fibromyalgia is a health condition characterized by significant tiredness and pain. Its contours are not clearly specified, either from a biological point of view or from a clinical point of view. In this context of uncertainty, the prevalence of fibromyalgia is estimated at more than 1% of the population. This article draws on qualitative data to explore in sociological terms the relationship between the dynamics of public debate about fibromyalgia, which has been recurring since the 1980s, and the patient experience. The linking of these two types of elements, both collective and individual perspectives, highlights the difficulties associated with management and care of fibromyalgia.

TOPSAN: a dynamic web database for structural genomics.

PubMed

Ellrott, Kyle; Zmasek, Christian M; Weekes, Dana; Sri Krishna, S; Bakolitsa, Constantina; Godzik, Adam; Wooley, John

2011-01-01

The Open Protein Structure Annotation Network (TOPSAN) is a web-based collaboration platform for exploring and annotating structures determined by structural genomics efforts. Characterization of those structures presents a challenge since the majority of the proteins themselves have not yet been characterized. Responding to this challenge, the TOPSAN platform facilitates collaborative annotation and investigation via a user-friendly web-based interface pre-populated with automatically generated information. Semantic web technologies expand and enrich TOPSAN's content through links to larger sets of related databases, and thus, enable data integration from disparate sources and data mining via conventional query languages. TOPSAN can be found at http://www.topsan.org.

Street vending and informal economy: Survey data from Cali, Colombia.

PubMed

Martinez, Lina M; Estrada, Daniela

2017-10-01

This data brief describes data collected in Cali, Colombia about the economic dynamic and socioeconomic conditions of street vendors in the city. The study was conducted between 2014 and 2016 in two populated sites in terms of formal and informal commerce in the city. We present the methodology followed in the study, location of street vending sites and type of data collected to approximate to the economic dimension of street vending. Data collected contains information about sociodemographic characteristics, life satisfaction, business operation and characteristics, income and expenses, official license for operation. This information is linked to the publication (Martinez et al., 2017) [1].

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting, analysis, and policy optimization.

PubMed

Madden, M; Batey Pwj

1983-05-01

Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.

Sibship effects on dispersal behaviour in a pre-industrial human population.

PubMed

Nitsch, A; Lummaa, V; Faurie, C

2016-10-01

Understanding dispersal behaviour and its determinants is critical for studies on life-history maximizing strategies. Although many studies have investigated the causes of dispersal, few have focused on the importance of sibship, despite that sibling interactions are predicted to lead to intrafamilial differences in dispersal patterns. Using a large demographic data set from pre-industrial Finland (n = 9000), we tested whether the sex-specific probability of dispersal depended on the presence of same-sex or opposite-sex elder siblings who can both compete and cooperate in the family. Overall, following our predictions, the presence of same-sex elder siblings increased the probability of dispersal from natal population for both sexes, whereas the number of opposite-sex siblings had less influence. Among males, dispersal was strongly linked to access to land resources. Female dispersal was mainly associated with competition over availability of mates but likely mediated by competition over access to wealthy mates rather mate availability per se. Besides ecological constraints, sibling interactions are strongly linked with dispersal decisions and need to be better considered in the studies on the evolution of family dynamics and fitness maximizing strategies in humans and other species. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The Impact of Policies Influencing the Demography of Age-Structured Populations: Lessons from Academies of Sciences

PubMed Central

Riosmena, Fernando; Winkler-Dworak, Maria; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

2013-01-01

In this paper, we assess the role of policies aimed at regulating the number and age structure of elections on the size and age structure of five European Academies of Sciences. We show the recent pace of ageing and the degree of variation in policies across them and discuss the implications of different policies on the size and age structure of academies. We also illustrate the potential effect of different election regimes (fixed vs. linked) and age structures of election (younger vs. older) by contrasting the steady-state dynamics of different projections of Full Members in each academy into 2070 and measuring the size and age-compositional effect of changing a given policy relative to a status quo policy scenario. Our findings suggest that academies with linked intake (i.e., where the size of the academy below a certain age is fixed and the number of elections is set to the number of members becoming that age) may be a more efficient approach to curb growth without suffering any ageing trade-offs relative to the faster growth of academies electing a fixed number of members per year. We further discuss the implications of our results in the context of stable populations open to migration. PMID:23843677

Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

2015-01-01

Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

The size of an ethno-cultural community as a social determinant of health for Chinese seniors.

PubMed

Chau, Shirley; Lai, Daniel W L

2011-12-01

The present study investigated the link between the sizes of the Chinese community to the health of Chinese seniors in Canada. A secondary data analysis of survey data from a representative sample of 2,272 Chinese older adults aged 55 and over was conducted. Hierarchical regression analyses were performed to assess the effects of the size of Chinese communities in Chinese seniors' health. Chinese seniors residing in the community with a small Chinese population reported better physical and mental health than the Chinese seniors residing in communities with a larger Chinese population. The findings were contrary to expectations that health of Chinese seniors should be higher in cities with large Chinese communities. These findings raise new questions for future investigations into the dynamics and impact of ethnic community size, and the importance of studying intragroup differences within ethno-cultural groups to better understand health disparities in ethnic groups.

Relating coupled map lattices to integro-difference equations: dispersal-driven instabilities in coupled map lattices.

PubMed

White, Steven M; White, K A Jane

2005-08-21

Recently there has been a great deal of interest within the ecological community about the interactions of local populations that are coupled only by dispersal. Models have been developed to consider such scenarios but the theory needed to validate model outcomes has been somewhat lacking. In this paper, we present theory which can be used to understand these types of interaction when population exhibit discrete time dynamics. In particular, we consider a spatial extension to discrete-time models, known as coupled map lattices (CMLs) which are discrete in space. We introduce a general form of the CML and link this to integro-difference equations via a special redistribution kernel. General conditions are then derived for dispersal-driven instabilities. We then apply this theory to two discrete-time models; a predator-prey model and a host-pathogen model.

General Theory and Algorithms for the Non-Casual Inversion, Slewing and Control of Space-Based Articulated Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-10-01

Structures: Simultaneous Trajectory Tracking and Vibration Reduction ... 10 3 . Buckling Control of a Flexible Beam Using Piezoelectric Actuators...bounded solution for the inverse dynamic torque has to be non-causal. Bayo, et. al. [ 3 ], extended the inverse dynamics to planar, multiple-link systems...presented by &ayo and Moulin [4] for the single link system, with provisions for 3 extension to multiple link systems. An equivalent time domain approach for

Internet traffic load balancing using dynamic hashing with flow volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Ju-Yeon; Kim, Yoohwan; Chao, H. Jonathan; Merat, Francis L.

2002-07-01

Sending IP packets over multiple parallel links is in extensive use in today's Internet and its use is growing due to its scalability, reliability and cost-effectiveness. To maximize the efficiency of parallel links, load balancing is necessary among the links, but it may cause the problem of packet reordering. Since packet reordering impairs TCP performance, it is important to reduce the amount of reordering. Hashing offers a simple solution to keep the packet order by sending a flow over a unique link, but static hashing does not guarantee an even distribution of the traffic amount among the links, which could lead to packet loss under heavy load. Dynamic hashing offers some degree of load balancing but suffers from load fluctuations and excessive packet reordering. To overcome these shortcomings, we have enhanced the dynamic hashing algorithm to utilize the flow volume information in order to reassign only the appropriate flows. This new method, called dynamic hashing with flow volume (DHFV), eliminates unnecessary flow reassignments of small flows and achieves load balancing very quickly without load fluctuation by accurately predicting the amount of transferred load between the links. In this paper we provide the general framework of DHFV and address the challenges in implementing DHFV. We then introduce two algorithms of DHFV with different flow selection strategies and show their performances through simulation.

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three categories of population dynamics models: deterministic modeling with Logistic chaos map as an example, stochastic modeling with spatial distribution patterns as an example, as well as survival analysis and extended evolutionary game theory (EEGT) modeling. Sample experiment results with Genetic algorithms (GA) are presented to demonstrate the applications of these models. The proposed EC population dynamics approach also makes survival selection largely unnecessary or much simplified since the individuals are naturally selected (controlled) by the mathematical models for EC population dynamics.

Population connectivity of deep-sea corals: Chapter 12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, Cheryl L.; Baco, Amy; Nizinski, Martha S.; Coykendall, D. Katharine; Demopoulos, Amanda W. J.; Cho, Walter; Shank, Tim

2015-01-01

Identifying the scale of dispersal among habitats has been a challenge in marine ecology for decades (Grantham et al., 2003; Kinlan & Gaines, 2003; Hixon, 2011). Unlike terrestrial habitats in which barriers to dispersal may be obvious (e.g. mountain ranges, rivers), few absolute barriers to dispersal are recognizable in the sea. Additionally, most marine species have complex life cycles in which juveniles are more mobile than adults. As such, the dynamics of populations may involve processes in distant habitats that are coupled by a transport mechanism. Studies of population connectivity try to quantify the transport, or dispersal of individuals, among geographically separated populations. For benthic marine species, such as corals and demersal fishes, colonization of new populations occurs primarily by dispersal of larvae (Figure 1; Shank, 2010). Successful dispersal and recruitment, followed by maturation and reproduction of these new migrants ensures individuals contribute to the gene pool (Hedgecock, 2007). Thus, successful dispersal links and cohesively maintains spatially separated sub-populations. At shorter time scales (10-100s years), connectivity regulates community structure by influencing the genetic composition, diversity and demographic stability of the population, whereas at longer time scales (1000s years), geographic distributions are affected (McClain and Hardy, 2010). Alternatively, populations may become extinct or speciation may occur if connectivity ceases (Cowen et al., 2007). Therefore, the genetic exchange of individuals between populations is fundamental to the short-term resilience and long-term maintenance of the species. However, for the vast majority of marine species, population connectivity remains poorly understood.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

PubMed

Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

2016-03-01

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Scientific projects as a way to provide dynamism in small French remote colleges.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Michel; Strajnic, Jean

Scientific projects as a way to provide dynamism in small French remote colleges. Though 77% of the French population lives in towns, they are still quite a lot of people in rural areas. The educational model has favored the proximity colleges instead of forcing the students to make long journeys to get to the school, or to be in boarding schools. This means that grade 6-9 students can be in colleges as small as 100-150 children, specifically in remote areas, e.g. in the Alpes de Haute-Provence. Though small structures have many advantages in terms of discipline and proximity of the educational team with both the students and their parents, some "conservatism" may arise from the low turnover of the population. Children stay for long in the same village, and their access to culture, activities, knowledge of the outside can be restricted, inducing a loss of dynamism. In order to fight this tendency the Observatoire de Haute-Provence has started a program together with the regional educational authorities and the teacher teams proposing to work on scientific projects in astronomy, and soon in environmental sciences. Though the children and their teachers visit OHP, and scientists the college, the idea is that the teachers and the classmates become autonomous, the link being maintained via videoconferencing and electronic blackboard. This is based also on the presence of a prominent scientific institute in a rural district.

Dynamic Remodeling of Microbial Biofilms by Functionally Distinct Exopolysaccharides

PubMed Central

Chew, Su Chuen; Kundukad, Binu; Seviour, Thomas; van der Maarel, Johan R. C.; Yang, Liang; Rice, Scott A.; Doyle, Patrick

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Biofilms are densely populated communities of microbial cells protected and held together by a matrix of extracellular polymeric substances. The structure and rheological properties of the matrix at the microscale influence the retention and transport of molecules and cells in the biofilm, thereby dictating population and community behavior. Despite its importance, quantitative descriptions of the matrix microstructure and microrheology are limited. Here, particle-tracking microrheology in combination with genetic approaches was used to spatially and temporally study the rheological contributions of the major exopolysaccharides Pel and Psl in Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms. Psl increased the elasticity and effective cross-linking within the matrix, which strengthened its scaffold and appeared to facilitate the formation of microcolonies. Conversely, Pel reduced effective cross-linking within the matrix. Without Psl, the matrix becomes more viscous, which facilitates biofilm spreading. The wild-type biofilm decreased in effective cross-linking over time, which would be advantageous for the spreading and colonization of new surfaces. This suggests that there are regulatory mechanisms to control production of the exopolysaccharides that serve to remodel the matrix of developing biofilms. The exopolysaccharides were also found to have profound effects on the spatial organization and integration of P. aeruginosa in a mixed-species biofilm model of P. aeruginosa-Staphylococcus aureus. Pel was required for close association of the two species in mixed-species microcolonies. In contrast, Psl was important for P. aeruginosa to form single-species biofilms on top of S. aureus biofilms. Our results demonstrate that Pel and Psl have distinct physical properties and functional roles during biofilm formation. PMID:25096883

The use of a computerized database to monitor vaccine safety in Viet Nam.

PubMed Central

Ali, Mohammad; Canh, Gia Do; Clemens, John D.; Park, Jin-Kyung; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Minh, Tan Truong; Thiem, Dinh Vu; Tho, Huu Le; Trach, Duc Dang

2005-01-01

Health information systems to monitor vaccine safety are used in industrialized countries to detect adverse medical events related to vaccinations or to prove the safety of vaccines. There are no such information systems in the developing world, but they are urgently needed. A large linked database for the monitoring of vaccine-related adverse events has been established in Khanh Hoa province, Viet Nam. Data collected during the first 2 years of surveillance, a period which included a mass measles vaccination campaign, were used to evaluate the system. For this purpose the discharge diagnoses of individuals admitted to polyclinics and hospitals were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 guidelines and linked in a dynamic population database with vaccination histories. A case-series analysis was applied to the cohort of children vaccinated during the mass measles vaccination campaign. The study recorded 107,022 immunizations in a catchment area with a population of 357,458 and confirmed vaccine coverage of 87% or higher for completed routine childhood vaccinations. The measles vaccination campaign immunized at least 86% of the targeted children aged 9 months to 10 years. No medical event was detected significantly more frequently during the 14 days after measles vaccination than before it. The experience in Viet Nam confirmed the safety of a measles vaccination campaign and shows that it is feasible to establish health information systems such as a large linked database which can provide reliable data in a developing country for a modest increase in use of resources. PMID:16193545

Adverse outcome pathways linked to population models as a methodology for investigating effects of chemical stressors

EPA Science Inventory

In addressing the complexity and toxicity of chemical contaminants in Great Lakes ecosystems, we describe an approach to link chemically induced alterations in molecular and biochemical endpoints to adverse outcomes in whole organisms and populations. Analysis of population impac...

Interacting opinion and disease dynamics in multiplex networks: Discontinuous phase transition and nonmonotonic consensus times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velásquez-Rojas, Fátima; Vazquez, Federico

2017-05-01

Opinion formation and disease spreading are among the most studied dynamical processes on complex networks. In real societies, it is expected that these two processes depend on and affect each other. However, little is known about the effects of opinion dynamics over disease dynamics and vice versa, since most studies treat them separately. In this work we study the dynamics of the voter model for opinion formation intertwined with that of the contact process for disease spreading, in a population of agents that interact via two types of connections, social and contact. These two interacting dynamics take place on two layers of networks, coupled through a fraction q of links present in both networks. The probability that an agent updates its state depends on both the opinion and disease states of the interacting partner. We find that the opinion dynamics has striking consequences on the statistical properties of disease spreading. The most important is that the smooth (continuous) transition from a healthy to an endemic phase observed in the contact process, as the infection probability increases beyond a threshold, becomes abrupt (discontinuous) in the two-layer system. Therefore, disregarding the effects of social dynamics on epidemics propagation may lead to a misestimation of the real magnitude of the spreading. Also, an endemic-healthy discontinuous transition is found when the coupling q overcomes a threshold value. Furthermore, we show that the disease dynamics delays the opinion consensus, leading to a consensus time that varies nonmonotonically with q in a large range of the model's parameters. A mean-field approach reveals that the coupled dynamics of opinions and disease can be approximately described by the dynamics of the voter model decoupled from that of the contact process, with effective probabilities of opinion and disease transmission.

Sex-linked and autosomal microsatellites provide new insights into island populations of the tammar wallaby.

PubMed

MacDonald, A J; Fitzsimmons, N N; Chambers, B; Renfree, M B; Sarre, S D

2014-03-01

The emerging availability of microsatellite markers from mammalian sex chromosomes provides opportunities to investigate both male- and female-mediated gene flow in wild populations, identifying patterns not apparent from the analysis of autosomal markers alone. Tammar wallabies (Macropus eugenii), once spread over the southern mainland, have been isolated on several islands off the Western Australian and South Australian coastlines for between 10,000 and 13,000 years. Here, we combine analyses of autosomal, Y-linked and X-linked microsatellite loci to investigate genetic variation in populations of this species on two islands (Kangaroo Island, South Australia and Garden Island, Western Australia). All measures of diversity were higher for the larger Kangaroo Island population, in which genetic variation was lowest at Y-linked markers and highest at autosomal markers (θ=3.291, 1.208 and 0.627 for autosomal, X-linked and Y-linked data, respectively). Greater relatedness among females than males provides evidence for male-biased dispersal in this population, while sex-linked markers identified genetic lineages not apparent from autosomal data alone. Overall genetic diversity in the Garden Island population was low, especially on the Y chromosome where most males shared a common haplotype, and we observed high levels of inbreeding and relatedness among individuals. Our findings highlight the utility of this approach for management actions, such as the selection of animals for translocation or captive breeding, and the ecological insights that may be gained by combining analyses of microsatellite markers on sex chromosomes with those derived from autosomes.

Conceptions of Contraceptive Use in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Lessons for Programming

PubMed Central

Ndinda, Catherine; Ndhlovu, Tidings; Khalema, Nene Ernest

2017-01-01

Community family planning programmes in South Africa arose from the controversial apartheid history of controlling the African population while encouraging the growth of European migrant population. Post-apartheid population policies shifted away from population control to aligning policies to the global agenda that placed emphasis on the link between population and development. The focus on population and development polices in post-apartheid South Africa is on social equality, justice and peace rather than controlling sections of the population. Given the shift, this paper interrogates the conceptions of contraceptive use among rural communities in KwaZulu-Natal. Our primary objective is to understand the dynamics surrounding access to and use of family planning services in peri-urban and rural areas of KwaZulu-Natal. Using focus group data, the findings of the study suggest that different social categories interact with the family planning programmes differently. How teenagers and married women perceive the value of family planning differs. Gender differences regarding the use of condoms are also evident. The paper attempts to grapple with the non-use of condoms despite the knowledge that these prevent pregnancy and provide protection from sexually-transmitted diseases. The contribution of this paper lies in its identification of socio-cultural factors and the political economy underlying the different attitudes towards contraceptive use in rural KwaZulu-Natal. PMID:28350334

Conceptions of Contraceptive Use in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Lessons for Programming.

PubMed

Ndinda, Catherine; Ndhlovu, Tidings; Khalema, Nene Ernest

2017-03-28

Community family planning programmes in South Africa arose from the controversial apartheid history of controlling the African population while encouraging the growth of European migrant population. Post-apartheid population policies shifted away from population control to aligning policies to the global agenda that placed emphasis on the link between population and development. The focus on population and development polices in post-apartheid South Africa is on social equality, justice and peace rather than controlling sections of the population. Given the shift, this paper interrogates the conceptions of contraceptive use among rural communities in KwaZulu-Natal. Our primary objective is to understand the dynamics surrounding access to and use of family planning services in peri-urban and rural areas of KwaZulu-Natal. Using focus group data, the findings of the study suggest that different social categories interact with the family planning programmes differently. How teenagers and married women perceive the value of family planning differs. Gender differences regarding the use of condoms are also evident. The paper attempts to grapple with the non-use of condoms despite the knowledge that these prevent pregnancy and provide protection from sexually-transmitted diseases. The contribution of this paper lies in its identification of socio-cultural factors and the political economy underlying the different attitudes towards contraceptive use in rural KwaZulu-Natal.

Complex Phenomena Understanding in Electricity through Dynamically Linked Concrete and Abstract Representations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taramopoulos, A.; Psillos, D.

2017-01-01

The present study investigates the impact of utilizing virtual laboratory environments combining dynamically linked concrete and abstract representations in investigative activities on the ability of students to comprehend simple and complex phenomena in the field of electric circuits. Forty-two 16- to 17-year-old high school students participated…

Exploring Classroom Interaction with Dynamic Social Network Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bokhove, Christian

2018-01-01

This article reports on an exploratory project in which technology and dynamic social network analysis (SNA) are used for modelling classroom interaction. SNA focuses on the links between social actors, draws on graphic imagery to reveal and display the patterning of those links, and develops mathematical and computational models to describe and…

Sound Links: Exploring the Social, Cultural and Educational Dynamics of Musical Communities in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartleet, Brydie-Leigh

2009-01-01

"Sound Links" examines the dynamics of community music in Australia, and the models it represents for informal music learning and teaching. This involves researching a selection of vibrant musical communities across the country, exploring their potential for complementarity and synergy with music in schools. This article focuses on the…

Tools for Teaming: Resources for Linking Vocational Programs with Special Populations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tavares, Barbara, Ed.

This publication provides resources for linking vocational programs with five special populations. Sections 1-5 each focus on one special population and contain some or all of these resources: activities; recruitment; teacher tips; laws; staff development; funding streams; parent advice; instructional modifications; websites; community resources;…

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.

PubMed

McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O

2012-08-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect

PubMed Central

Ordano, Mariano; Engelhard, Izhar; Rempoulakis, Polychronis; Nemny-Lavy, Esther; Blum, Moshe; Yasin, Sami; Lensky, Itamar M.; Papadopoulos, Nikos T.; Nestel, David

2015-01-01

Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics. PMID:26010332

The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D.; Schurr, Frank M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Dullinger, Stefan; Edwards, Thomas C.; Hickler, Thomas; Higgins, Steven I.; Nabel, Julia E.M.S.; Pagel, Jörn; Normand, Signe

2014-01-01

Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species’ range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low, and if the abundance of one or more strongly interacting species is not closely linked to the abundance of the target species.

The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates.

PubMed

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D; Schurr, Frank M; Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Dullinger, Stefan; Edwards, Thomas C; Hickler, Thomas; Higgins, Steven I; Nabel, Julia E M S; Pagel, Jörn; Normand, Signe

2014-12-01

Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species' range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low, and if the abundance of one or more strongly interacting species is not closely linked to the abundance of the target species.

The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates

PubMed Central

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D.; Schurr, Frank M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Dullinger, Stefan; Edwards, Thomas C.; Hickler, Thomas; Higgins, Steven I.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Pagel, Jörn; Normand, Signe

2014-01-01

Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species’ range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low, and if the abundance of one or more strongly interacting species is not closely linked to the abundance of the target species. PMID:25722537

Test-electron analysis of the magnetic reconnection topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgogno, D.; Perona, A.; Grasso, D.

2017-12-01

Three-dimensional (3D) investigations of the magnetic reconnection field topology in space and laboratory plasmas have identified the abidance of magnetic coherent structures in the stochastic region, which develop during the nonlinear stage of the reconnection process. Further analytical and numerical analyses highlighted the efficacy of some of these structures in limiting the magnetic transport. The question then arises as to what is the possible role played by these patterns in the dynamics of the plasma particles populating the chaotic region. In order to explore this aspect, we provide a detailed description of the nonlinear 3D magnetic field topology in a collisionless magnetic reconnection event with a strong guide field. In parallel, we study the evolution of a population of test electrons in the guiding-center approximation all along the reconnection process. In particular, we focus on the nonlinear spatial redistribution of the initially thermal electrons and show how the electron dynamics in the stochastic region depends on the sign and on the value of their velocities. While the particles with the highest positive speed populate the coherent current structures that survive in the chaotic sea, the presence of the manifolds calculated in the stochastic region defines the confinement area for the electrons with the largest negative velocity. These results stress the link between the magnetic topology and the electron motion and contribute to the overall picture of a non-stationary fluid magnetic reconnection description in a geometry proper to physical systems where the effects of the curvature can be neglected.

Social Balance on Networks: The Dynamics of Friendship and Hatred

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redner, Sidney

2006-03-01

We study the evolution of social networks that contain both friendly and unfriendly pairwise links between individual nodes. The network is endowed with dynamics in which the sense of a link in an imbalanced triad---a triangular loop with 1 or 3 unfriendly links---is reversed to make the triad balanced. Thus an imbalanced triad is analogous to a frustrated plaquette in a random magnet, while a balanced triad fulfills the adage: ``a friend of my friend is my friend; an enemy of my friend is my enemy; a friend of my enemy is my enemy; an enemy of my enemy is my friend.'' With this frustration-reducing dynamics, an infinite network undergoes a dynamic phase transition from a steady state to ``paradise''---all links are friendly---as the propensity for friendly links to be created in an update event passes through 1/2. On the other hand, a finite network always falls into a socially-balanced absorbing state where no imbalanced triads remain. A prominent example of the achievement of social balance is the evolution of pacts and treaties between various European countries during the late 1800's and early 1900's. Here social balance gave rise to the two major alliances that comprised the protagonists of World War I.

There are four dynamically and functionally distinct populations of E-cadherin in cell junctions

PubMed Central

Erami, Zahra; Timpson, Paul; Yao, Wu; Zaidel-Bar, Ronen; Anderson, Kurt I.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT E-cadherin is a trans-membrane tumor suppressor responsible for epithelial cell adhesion. E-cadherin forms adhesive clusters through combined extra-cellular cis- and trans-interactions and intracellular interaction with the actin cytoskeleton. Here we identify four populations of E-cadherin within cell junctions based on the molecular interactions which determine their mobility and adhesive properties. Adhesive and non-adhesive populations of E-cadherin each consist of mobile and immobile fractions. Up to half of the E-cadherin immobilized in cell junctions is non-adhesive. Incorporation of E-cadherin into functional adhesions require all three adhesive interactions, with deletion of any one resulting in loss of effective cell-cell adhesion. Interestingly, the only interaction which could independently slow the diffusion of E-cadherin was the tail-mediated intra-cellular interaction. The adhesive and non-adhesive mobile fractions of E-cadherin can be distinguished by their sensitivity to chemical cross-linking with adhesive clusters. Our data define the size, mobility, and adhesive properties of four distinct populations of E-cadherin within cell junctions, and support association with the actin cytoskeleton as the first step in adhesion formation. PMID:26471767

[Adapting health services to the specific needs and utilization patterns of the new Spaniards. 2008 SESPAS Report].

PubMed

Ribera, Berta; Casal, Bruno; Cantarero, David; Pascual, Marta

2008-04-01

Because of the progressive increase in the number of immigrants and the uncertainty about the capacity of the Spanish health service to deal with the quantitative and qualitative increases in demand, the possibility of introducing changes to adapt our services to the new situation should be considered. Beginning with an analysis of the factors that influence health status and use of the health service, based on the National Health Survey (NHS), the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), we compare the health profiles and patterns of medical resources utilization between the national and foreign populations. The pattern of demand for health services in the immigrant population corresponds basically to the needs of a young population in good health. According to NHS data, resource utilization among immigrants can even be lower than that among the national population. Assessing the link between health status and demand for healthcare from a dynamic point of view, by identifying variations in patterns of health and patterns of demand for healthcare, is important to identify imbalances in resources and to establish an appropriate hierarchy of preventive and treatment priorities.

Wine microbiology is driven by vineyard and winery anthropogenic factors.

PubMed

Grangeteau, Cédric; Roullier-Gall, Chloé; Rousseaux, Sandrine; Gougeon, Régis D; Schmitt-Kopplin, Philippe; Alexandre, Hervé; Guilloux-Benatier, Michèle

2017-03-01

The effects of different anthropic activities (vineyard: phytosanitary protection; winery: pressing and sulfiting) on the fungal populations of grape berries were studied. The global diversity of fungal populations (moulds and yeasts) was performed by pyrosequencing. The anthropic activities studied modified fungal diversity. Thus, a decrease in biodiversity was measured for three successive vintages for the grapes of the plot cultivated with Organic protection compared to plots treated with Conventional and Ecophyto protections. The fungal populations were then considerably modified by the pressing-clarification step. The addition of sulfur dioxide also modified population dynamics and favoured the domination of the species Saccharomyces cerevisiae during fermentation. The non-targeted chemical analysis of musts and wines by FT-ICR-MS showed that the wines could be discriminated at the end of alcoholic fermentation as a function of adding SO 2 or not, but also and above all as a function of phytosanitary protection, regardless of whether these fermentations took place in the presence of SO 2 or not. Thus, the existence of signatures in wines of chemical diversity and microbiology linked to vineyard protection has been highlighted. © 2016 The Authors. Microbial Biotechnology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Applied Microbiology.

Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Mangen, M-J J; Nielen, M; Burrell, A M

2002-12-18

We examined the importance of pig-population density in the area of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) for the spread of the infection and the choice of control measures. A spatial, stochastic, dynamic epidemiological simulation model linked to a sector-level market-and-trade model for The Netherlands were used. Outbreaks in sparsely and densely populated areas were compared under four different control strategies and with two alternative trade assumptions. The obligatory control strategy required by current EU legislation was predicted to be enough to eradicate an epidemic starting in an area with sparse pig population. By contrast, additional control measures would be necessary if the outbreak began in an area with high pig density. The economic consequences of using preventive slaughter rather than emergency vaccination as an additional control measure depended strongly on the reactions of trading partners. Reducing the number of animal movements significantly reduced the size and length of epidemics in areas with high pig density. The phenomenon of carrier piglets was included in the model with realistic probabilities of infection by this route, but it made a negligible contribution to the spread of the infection.

Foundations of a mathematical theory of darwinism.

PubMed

Batty, Charles J K; Crewe, Paul; Grafen, Alan; Gratwick, Richard

2014-08-01

This paper pursues the 'formal darwinism' project of Grafen, whose aim is to construct formal links between dynamics of gene frequencies and optimization programmes, in very abstract settings with general implications for biologically relevant situations. A major outcome is the definition, within wide assumptions, of the ubiquitous but problematic concept of 'fitness'. This paper is the first to present the project for mathematicians. Within the framework of overlapping generations in discrete time and no social interactions, the current model shows links between fitness maximization and gene frequency change in a class-structured population, with individual-level uncertainty but no uncertainty in the class projection operator, where individuals are permitted to observe and condition their behaviour on arbitrary parts of the uncertainty. The results hold with arbitrary numbers of loci and alleles, arbitrary dominance and epistasis, and make no assumptions about linkage, linkage disequilibrium or mating system. An explicit derivation is given of Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection in its full generality.

Linking ‘toxic outliers’ to environmental justice communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Mary B.; Munoz, Ian; JaJa, Joseph

2016-01-01

Several key studies have found that a small minority of producers, polluting at levels far exceeding group averages, generate the majority of overall exposure to industrial toxics. Frequently, such patterns go unnoticed and are understudied outside of the academic community. To our knowledge, no research to date has systematically described the scope and extent of extreme variations in industrially based exposure estimates and sought to link inequities in harm produced to inequities in exposure. In an analysis of all permitted industrial facilities across the United States, we show that there exists a class of hyper-polluters—the worst-of-the-worst—that disproportionately expose communities of color and low income populations to chemical releases. This study hopes to move beyond a traditional environmental justice research frame, bringing new computational methods and perspectives aimed at the empirical study of societal power dynamics. Our findings suggest the possibility that substantial environmental gains may be made through selective environmental enforcement, rather than sweeping initiatives.

A novel multilayer model for missing link prediction and future link forecasting in dynamic complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasami, Yasser; Safaei, Farshad

2018-02-01

The traditional complex network theory is particularly focused on network models in which all network constituents are dealt with equivalently, while fail to consider the supplementary information related to the dynamic properties of the network interactions. This is a main constraint leading to incorrect descriptions of some real-world phenomena or incomplete capturing the details of certain real-life problems. To cope with the problem, this paper addresses the multilayer aspects of dynamic complex networks by analyzing the properties of intrinsically multilayered co-authorship networks, DBLP and Astro Physics, and presenting a novel multilayer model of dynamic complex networks. The model examines the layers evolution (layers birth/death process and lifetime) throughout the network evolution. Particularly, this paper models the evolution of each node's membership in different layers by an Infinite Factorial Hidden Markov Model considering feature cascade, and thereby formulates the link generation process for intra-layer and inter-layer links. Although adjacency matrixes are useful to describe the traditional single-layer networks, such a representation is not sufficient to describe and analyze the multilayer dynamic networks. This paper also extends a generalized mathematical infrastructure to address the problems issued by multilayer complex networks. The model inference is performed using some Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies, given synthetic and real complex networks data. Experimental results indicate a tremendous improvement in the performance of the proposed multilayer model in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, F1-score, Matthews correlation coefficient, and accuracy for two important applications of missing link prediction and future link forecasting. The experimental results also indicate the strong predictivepower of the proposed model for the application of cascade prediction in terms of accuracy.

Adaptive nodes enrich nonlinear cooperative learning beyond traditional adaptation by links.

PubMed

Sardi, Shira; Vardi, Roni; Goldental, Amir; Sheinin, Anton; Uzan, Herut; Kanter, Ido

2018-03-23

Physical models typically assume time-independent interactions, whereas neural networks and machine learning incorporate interactions that function as adjustable parameters. Here we demonstrate a new type of abundant cooperative nonlinear dynamics where learning is attributed solely to the nodes, instead of the network links which their number is significantly larger. The nodal, neuronal, fast adaptation follows its relative anisotropic (dendritic) input timings, as indicated experimentally, similarly to the slow learning mechanism currently attributed to the links, synapses. It represents a non-local learning rule, where effectively many incoming links to a node concurrently undergo the same adaptation. The network dynamics is now counterintuitively governed by the weak links, which previously were assumed to be insignificant. This cooperative nonlinear dynamic adaptation presents a self-controlled mechanism to prevent divergence or vanishing of the learning parameters, as opposed to learning by links, and also supports self-oscillations of the effective learning parameters. It hints on a hierarchical computational complexity of nodes, following their number of anisotropic inputs and opens new horizons for advanced deep learning algorithms and artificial intelligence based applications, as well as a new mechanism for enhanced and fast learning by neural networks.

Reconstructing networks from dynamics with correlated noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tam, H. C.; Ching, Emily S. C.; Lai, Pik-Yin

2018-07-01

Reconstructing the structure of complex networks from measurements of the nodes is a challenge in many branches of science. External influences are always present and act as a noise to the networks of interest. In this paper, we present a method for reconstructing networks from measured dynamics of the nodes subjected to correlated noise that cannot be approximated by a white noise. This method can reconstruct the links of both bidirectional and directed networks, the correlation time and strength of the noise, and also the relative coupling strength of the links when the coupling functions have certain properties. Our method is built upon theoretical relations between network structure and measurable quantities from the dynamics that we have derived for systems that have fixed point dynamics in the noise-free limit. Using these theoretical results, we can further explain the shortcomings of two common practices of inferring links for bidirectional networks using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the partial correlation coefficient.

The properties of water in swollen cross-linked polystyrene sulfo acids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagarin, A. N.; Tokmachev, M. G.; Kovaleva, S. S.; Ferapontov, N. B.

2008-11-01

The properties of water in polystyrene sulfo acid gels with various cross-linking degrees were studied by optical volumetry and dynamic desorption porosimetry. The isotherms of water desorption obtained by dynamic desorption porosimetry coincided with isopiestic isotherms, which allowed this method to be recommended for the determination of the amount of water in polymer gels. Joint optical volumetry and dynamic desorption porosimetry studies showed that the interphase boundary in the cross-liked hydrophilic polymer-water system did not coincide with the visible gel boundary, because gels were two-phase systems, which contained water of two types, “free” and “bound.” The influence of the degree of polymer cross-linking on the amounts and properties of water of the two types was studied. It was shown that constants of water distribution in the polymer could be calculated from the dynamic desorption porosimetry data.

Dynamics of history-dependent epidemics in temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunny, Albert; Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2015-08-01

The structural properties of temporal networks often influence the dynamical processes that occur on these networks, e.g., bursty interaction patterns have been shown to slow down epidemics. In this paper, we investigate the effect of link lifetimes on the spread of history-dependent epidemics. We formulate an analytically tractable activity-driven temporal network model that explicitly incorporates link lifetimes. For Markovian link lifetimes, we use mean-field analysis for computing the epidemic threshold, while the effect of non-Markovian link lifetimes is studied using simulations. Furthermore, we also study the effect of negative correlation between the number of links spawned by an individual and the lifetimes of those links. Such negative correlations may arise due to the finite cognitive capacity of the individuals. Our investigations reveal that heavy-tailed link lifetimes slow down the epidemic, while negative correlations can reduce epidemic prevalence. We believe that our results help shed light on the role of link lifetimes in modulating diffusion processes on temporal networks.

LESS: Link Estimation with Sparse Sampling in Intertidal WSNs

PubMed Central

Ji, Xiaoyu; Chen, Yi-chao; Li, Xiaopeng; Xu, Wenyuan

2018-01-01

Deploying wireless sensor networks (WSN) in the intertidal area is an effective approach for environmental monitoring. To sustain reliable data delivery in such a dynamic environment, a link quality estimation mechanism is crucial. However, our observations in two real WSN systems deployed in the intertidal areas reveal that link update in routing protocols often suffers from energy and bandwidth waste due to the frequent link quality measurement and updates. In this paper, we carefully investigate the network dynamics using real-world sensor network data and find it feasible to achieve accurate estimation of link quality using sparse sampling. We design and implement a compressive-sensing-based link quality estimation protocol, LESS, which incorporates both spatial and temporal characteristics of the system to aid the link update in routing protocols. We evaluate LESS in both real WSN systems and a large-scale simulation, and the results show that LESS can reduce energy and bandwidth consumption by up to 50% while still achieving more than 90% link quality estimation accuracy. PMID:29494557

Biannual birth pulses allow filoviruses to persist in bat populations

PubMed Central

Hayman, David T. S.

2015-01-01

Filoviruses Ebolavirus (EBOV) and Marburgvirus (MARV) cause haemorrhagic fevers with high mortality rates, posing significant threats to public health. To understand transmission into human populations, filovirus dynamics within reservoir host populations must be understood. Studies have directly linked filoviruses to bats, but the mechanisms allowing viral persistence within bat populations are poorly understood. Theory suggests seasonal birthing may decrease the probability of pathogen persistence within populations, but data suggest MARV may persist within colonies of seasonally breeding Egyptian fruit bats, Rousettus aegyptiacus. I synthesize available filovirus and bat data in a stochastic compartmental model to explore fundamental questions relating to filovirus ecology: can filoviruses persist within isolated bat colonies; do critical community sizes exist; and how do host–pathogen relationships affect spillover transmission potential? Synchronous annual breeding and shorter incubation periods did not allow filovirus persistence, whereas bi-annual breeding and longer incubation periods, such as reported for Egyptian fruit bats and EBOV in experimental studies, allowed persistence in colony sizes often found in nature. Serological data support the findings, with bats from species with two annual birth pulses more likely to be seropositive (odds ratio (OR) 4.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5–8.7) than those with one, suggesting that biannual birthing is necessary for filovirus persistence. PMID:25673678

Life history mediates mate limitation and population viability in self-incompatible plant species.

PubMed

Thrall, Peter H; Encinas-Viso, Francisco; Hoebee, Susan E; Young, Andrew G

2014-03-01

Genetically controlled self-incompatibility systems represent links between genetic diversity and plant demography with the potential to directly impact on population dynamics. We use an individual-based spatial simulation to investigate the demographic and genetic consequences of different self-incompatibility systems for plants that vary in reproductive capacity and lifespan. The results support the idea that, in the absence of inbreeding effects, populations of self-incompatible species will often be smaller and less viable than self-compatible species, particularly for shorter-lived organisms or where potential fecundity is low. At high ovule production and low mortality, self-incompatible and self-compatible species are demographically similar, thus self-incompatibility does not automatically lead to reduced mate availability or population viability. Overall, sporophytic codominant self-incompatibility was more limiting than gametophytic or sporophytic dominant systems, which generally behaved in a similar fashion. Under a narrow range of conditions, the sporophytic dominant system maintained marginally greater mate availability owing to the production of S locus homozygotes. While self-incompatibility reduces population size and persistence for a broad range of conditions, the actual number of S alleles, beyond that required for reproduction, is important for only a subset of life histories. For these situations, results suggest that addition of new S alleles may result in significant demographic rescue.

Life history mediates mate limitation and population viability in self-incompatible plant species

PubMed Central

Thrall, Peter H; Encinas-Viso, Francisco; Hoebee, Susan E; Young, Andrew G

2014-01-01

Genetically controlled self-incompatibility systems represent links between genetic diversity and plant demography with the potential to directly impact on population dynamics. We use an individual-based spatial simulation to investigate the demographic and genetic consequences of different self-incompatibility systems for plants that vary in reproductive capacity and lifespan. The results support the idea that, in the absence of inbreeding effects, populations of self-incompatible species will often be smaller and less viable than self-compatible species, particularly for shorter-lived organisms or where potential fecundity is low. At high ovule production and low mortality, self-incompatible and self-compatible species are demographically similar, thus self-incompatibility does not automatically lead to reduced mate availability or population viability. Overall, sporophytic codominant self-incompatibility was more limiting than gametophytic or sporophytic dominant systems, which generally behaved in a similar fashion. Under a narrow range of conditions, the sporophytic dominant system maintained marginally greater mate availability owing to the production of S locus homozygotes. While self-incompatibility reduces population size and persistence for a broad range of conditions, the actual number of S alleles, beyond that required for reproduction, is important for only a subset of life histories. For these situations, results suggest that addition of new S alleles may result in significant demographic rescue. PMID:24683451

Ecophysiology meets conservation: understanding the role of disease in amphibian population declines

PubMed Central

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Hoverman, Jason T.; Belden, Lisa K.; Bradley, Paul W.; Xie, Gisselle Y.

2012-01-01

Infectious diseases are intimately associated with the dynamics of biodiversity. However, the role that infectious disease plays within ecological communities is complex. The complex effects of infectious disease at the scale of communities and ecosystems are driven by the interaction between host and pathogen. Whether or not a given host–pathogen interaction results in progression from infection to disease is largely dependent on the physiological characteristics of the host within the context of the external environment. Here, we highlight the importance of understanding the outcome of infection and disease in the context of host ecophysiology using amphibians as a model system. Amphibians are ideal for such a discussion because many of their populations are experiencing declines and extinctions, with disease as an important factor implicated in many declines and extinctions. Exposure to pathogens and the host's responses to infection can be influenced by many factors related to physiology such as host life history, immunology, endocrinology, resource acquisition, behaviour and changing climates. In our review, we discuss the relationship between disease and biodiversity. We highlight the dynamics of three amphibian host–pathogen systems that induce different effects on hosts and life stages and illustrate the complexity of amphibian–host–parasite systems. We then review links between environmental stress, endocrine–immune interactions, disease and climate change. PMID:22566676

A two-layered diffusion model traces the dynamics of information processing in the valuation-and-choice circuit of decision making.

PubMed

Piu, Pietro; Fargnoli, Francesco; Innocenti, Alessandro; Rufa, Alessandra

2014-01-01

A circuit of evaluation and selection of the alternatives is considered a reliable model in neurobiology. The prominent contributions of the literature to this topic are reported. In this study, valuation and choice of a decisional process during Two-Alternative Forced-Choice (TAFC) task are represented as a two-layered network of computational cells, where information accrual and processing progress in nonlinear diffusion dynamics. The evolution of the response-to-stimulus map is thus modeled by two linked diffusive modules (2LDM) representing the neuronal populations involved in the valuation-and-decision circuit of decision making. Diffusion models are naturally appropriate for describing accumulation of evidence over the time. This allows the computation of the response times (RTs) in valuation and choice, under the hypothesis of ex-Wald distribution. A nonlinear transfer function integrates the activities of the two layers. The input-output map based on the infomax principle makes the 2LDM consistent with the reinforcement learning approach. Results from simulated likelihood time series indicate that 2LDM may account for the activity-dependent modulatory component of effective connectivity between the neuronal populations. Rhythmic fluctuations of the estimate gain functions in the delta-beta bands also support the compatibility of 2LDM with the neurobiology of DM.

Hitchhiking and epistasis give rise to cohort dynamics in adapting populations

PubMed Central

Buskirk, Sean W.; Peace, Ryan Emily; Lang, Gregory I.

2017-01-01

Beneficial mutations are the driving force of adaptive evolution. In asexual populations, the identification of beneficial alleles is confounded by the presence of genetically linked hitchhiker mutations. Parallel evolution experiments enable the recognition of common targets of selection; yet these targets are inherently enriched for genes of large target size and mutations of large effect. A comprehensive study of individual mutations is necessary to create a realistic picture of the evolutionarily significant spectrum of beneficial mutations. Here we use a bulk-segregant approach to identify the beneficial mutations across 11 lineages of experimentally evolved yeast populations. We report that nearly 80% of detected mutations have no discernible effects on fitness and less than 1% are deleterious. We determine the distribution of driver and hitchhiker mutations in 31 mutational cohorts, groups of mutations that arise synchronously from low frequency and track tightly with one another. Surprisingly, we find that one-third of cohorts lack identifiable driver mutations. In addition, we identify intracohort synergistic epistasis between alleles of hsl7 and kel1, which arose together in a low-frequency lineage. PMID:28720700

Western Radicalization: Rethinking the Psychology of Terrorism

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

individual is susceptible to radicalization. As Clark McCauley describes, “The psychology behind terrorist violence is normal psychology , abnormal ...behind terrorist violence is normal psychology , abnormal only in the intensity of the group dynamics that link cause with comrades.”65 Nevertheless... psychology , abnormal only in the intensity of the group dynamics that link 249 Anne Manne, The Life

Rise and Fall of Tios-Tieion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksoy, Erman; Yıldırım, Şahin

2017-10-01

The existence or endurance of the city is determined by social, economic, cultural, and technological factors. Therefore, transportation connections become physical signifiers of the relation between two spaces. Nevertheless, the potential for change in transportation is more dynamic when compared to other factors. Change in the infrastructure and systems of transportation become evident at the urban scale more rapidly. In addition to leading to the formation of new cities or to socio-cultural and economic development in the already-existent cities, this dynamic structure may also cause the decrease in economic power, and even the desertion of settlements. Furthermore, it functions as a leading, even determining, parameter in the formation of space, thereby in economic and social development. The fact that, throughout history, centres of communication and commerce were established at intersection, stopping and lodging points of transportation links and/or their development into residential areas attests to this interaction. In the commercial centres and life of the city, the effects of regional transportation networks and technologies surface relatively. By means of the analytical method, this study focuses on how, within the history of settlements, population increases due to the choice of location based on transportation and strategic significance, and how urban functions vary accordingly. As such, the interaction between urban development and transportation links for the Ancient City of Tios will be analysed, and the signifiers for urban development will be designated.

Modeling Physiological Processes That Relate Toxicant Exposure and Bacterial Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Klanjscek, Tin; Nisbet, Roger M.; Priester, John H.; Holden, Patricia A.

2012-01-01

Quantifying effects of toxicant exposure on metabolic processes is crucial to predicting microbial growth patterns in different environments. Mechanistic models, such as those based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, can link physiological processes to microbial growth. Here we expand the DEB framework to include explicit consideration of the role of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Extensions considered are: (i) additional terms in the equation for the “hazard rate” that quantifies mortality risk; (ii) a variable representing environmental degradation; (iii) a mechanistic description of toxic effects linked to increase in ROS production and aging acceleration, and to non-competitive inhibition of transport channels; (iv) a new representation of the “lag time” based on energy required for acclimation. We estimate model parameters using calibrated Pseudomonas aeruginosa optical density growth data for seven levels of cadmium exposure. The model reproduces growth patterns for all treatments with a single common parameter set, and bacterial growth for treatments of up to 150 mg(Cd)/L can be predicted reasonably well using parameters estimated from cadmium treatments of 20 mg(Cd)/L and lower. Our approach is an important step towards connecting levels of biological organization in ecotoxicology. The presented model reveals possible connections between processes that are not obvious from purely empirical considerations, enables validation and hypothesis testing by creating testable predictions, and identifies research required to further develop the theory. PMID:22328915

Average dispersal success: linking home range, dispersal, and metapopulation dynamics to reserve design.

PubMed

Fagan, William F; Lutscher, Frithjof

2006-04-01

Spatially explicit models for populations are often difficult to tackle mathematically and, in addition, require detailed data on individual movement behavior that are not easily obtained. An approximation known as the "average dispersal success" provides a tool for converting complex models, which may include stage structure and a mechanistic description of dispersal, into a simple matrix model. This simpler matrix model has two key advantages. First, it is easier to parameterize from the types of empirical data typically available to conservation biologists, such as survivorship, fecundity, and the fraction of juveniles produced in a study area that also recruit within the study area. Second, it is more amenable to theoretical investigation. Here, we use the average dispersal success approximation to develop estimates of the critical reserve size for systems comprising single patches or simple metapopulations. The quantitative approach can be used for both plants and animals; however, to provide a concrete example of the technique's utility, we focus on a special case pertinent to animals. Specifically, for territorial animals, we can characterize such an estimate of minimum viable habitat area in terms of the number of home ranges that the reserve contains. Consequently, the average dispersal success framework provides a framework through which home range size, natal dispersal distances, and metapopulation dynamics can be linked to reserve design. We briefly illustrate the approach using empirical data for the swift fox (Vulpes velox).

Dynamical patterns of cattle trade movements.

PubMed

Bajardi, Paolo; Barrat, Alain; Natale, Fabrizio; Savini, Lara; Colizza, Vittoria

2011-01-01

Despite their importance for the spread of zoonotic diseases, our understanding of the dynamical aspects characterizing the movements of farmed animal populations remains limited as these systems are traditionally studied as static objects and through simplified approximations. By leveraging on the network science approach, here we are able for the first time to fully analyze the longitudinal dataset of Italian cattle movements that reports the mobility of individual animals among farms on a daily basis. The complexity and inter-relations between topology, function and dynamical nature of the system are characterized at different spatial and time resolutions, in order to uncover patterns and vulnerabilities fundamental for the definition of targeted prevention and control measures for zoonotic diseases. Results show how the stationarity of statistical distributions coexists with a strong and non-trivial evolutionary dynamics at the node and link levels, on all timescales. Traditional static views of the displacement network hide important patterns of structural changes affecting nodes' centrality and farms' spreading potential, thus limiting the efficiency of interventions based on partial longitudinal information. By fully taking into account the longitudinal dimension, we propose a novel definition of dynamical motifs that is able to uncover the presence of a temporal arrow describing the evolution of the system and the causality patterns of its displacements, shedding light on mechanisms that may play a crucial role in the definition of preventive actions.

Dynamical Patterns of Cattle Trade Movements

PubMed Central

Bajardi, Paolo; Barrat, Alain; Natale, Fabrizio; Savini, Lara; Colizza, Vittoria

2011-01-01

Despite their importance for the spread of zoonotic diseases, our understanding of the dynamical aspects characterizing the movements of farmed animal populations remains limited as these systems are traditionally studied as static objects and through simplified approximations. By leveraging on the network science approach, here we are able for the first time to fully analyze the longitudinal dataset of Italian cattle movements that reports the mobility of individual animals among farms on a daily basis. The complexity and inter-relations between topology, function and dynamical nature of the system are characterized at different spatial and time resolutions, in order to uncover patterns and vulnerabilities fundamental for the definition of targeted prevention and control measures for zoonotic diseases. Results show how the stationarity of statistical distributions coexists with a strong and non-trivial evolutionary dynamics at the node and link levels, on all timescales. Traditional static views of the displacement network hide important patterns of structural changes affecting nodes' centrality and farms' spreading potential, thus limiting the efficiency of interventions based on partial longitudinal information. By fully taking into account the longitudinal dimension, we propose a novel definition of dynamical motifs that is able to uncover the presence of a temporal arrow describing the evolution of the system and the causality patterns of its displacements, shedding light on mechanisms that may play a crucial role in the definition of preventive actions. PMID:21625633

Fast vesicle transport is required for the slow axonal transport of synapsin.

PubMed

Tang, Yong; Scott, David; Das, Utpal; Gitler, Daniel; Ganguly, Archan; Roy, Subhojit

2013-09-25

Although it is known that cytosolic/soluble proteins synthesized in cell bodies are transported at much lower overall velocities than vesicles in fast axonal transport, the fundamental basis for this slow movement is unknown. Recently, we found that cytosolic proteins in axons of mouse cultured neurons are conveyed in a manner that superficially resembles diffusion, but with a slow anterograde bias that is energy- and motor-dependent (Scott et al., 2011). Here we show that slow axonal transport of synapsin, a prototypical member of this rate class, is dependent upon fast vesicle transport. Despite the distinct overall dynamics of slow and fast transport, experimentally induced and intrinsic variations in vesicle transport have analogous effects on slow transport of synapsin as well. Dynamic cotransport of vesicles and synapsin particles is also seen in axons, consistent with a model where higher-order assemblies of synapsin are conveyed by transient and probabilistic associations with vesicles moving in fast axonal transport. We posit that such dynamic associations generate the slow overall anterogradely biased flow of the population ("dynamic-recruitment model"). Our studies uncover the underlying kinetic basis for a classic cytosolic/soluble protein moving in slow axonal transport and reveal previously unknown links between slow and fast transport, offering a clearer conceptual picture of this curious phenomenon.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409