Preliminary study of soil liquefaction hazard at Terengganu shoreline, Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, H.; Suhatril, M.; Hashim, R.

2017-06-01

Terengganu is a shoreline state located in Peninsular Malaysia which is a growing hub for port industries and tourism centre. The northern part offers pristine settings of a relax beach areas whereas the southern part are observed to be a growing centre for development. The serious erosion on soil deposit along the beach line presents vulnerable soil condition to soil liquefaction consists of sandy with low plasticity and shallow ground water. Moreover, local earthquake from nearby fault have present significant tremors over the past few years which need to be considered in the land usage or future development in catering the seismic loading. Liquefaction analysis based on field standard penetration of soil is applied on 546 boreholes scattered along the shoreline areas ranging 244 km of shoreline stretch. Based on simplified approach, it is found that more than 70% of the studied areas pose high liquefaction potential since there are saturated loose sand and silt deposits layer ranges at depth 3 m and up to 20 m. The presence of clay deposits and hard stratum at the remaining 30% of the studied areas shows good resistance to soil liquefaction hence making the area less significant to liquefaction hazard. Result indicates that liquefaction improving technique is advisable in future development of shoreline areas of Terengganu state.

THE LIQUEFACTION RISK ANALYSIS OF CEMENT-TREATED SANDY GROUND CONSIDERING THE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL STRENGTH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Norio; Kasama, Kiyonobu; Zen, Kouki; Chen, Guangqi

This paper presents a probabilistic method for assessi ng the liquefaction risk of cement-treated ground, which is an anti-liquefaction ground improved by cemen t-mixing. In this study, the liquefaction potential of cement-treated ground is analyzed statistically using Monte Carlo Simulation based on the nonlinear earthquake response analysis consid ering the spatial variability of so il properties. The seismic bearing capacity of partially liquefied ground is analyzed in order to estimat e damage costs induced by partial liquefaction. Finally, the annual li quefaction risk is calcu lated by multiplying the liquefaction potential with the damage costs. The results indicated that the proposed new method enables to evaluate the probability of liquefaction, to estimate the damage costs using the hazard curv e, fragility curve induced by liquefaction, and liq uefaction risk curve.

Liquefaction potential index: Field assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toprak, S.; Holzer, T.L.

2003-01-01

Cone penetration test (CPT) soundings at historic liquefaction sites in California were used to evaluate the predictive capability of the liquefaction potential index (LPI), which was defined by Iwasaki et al. in 1978. LPI combines depth, thickness, and factor of safety of liquefiable material inferred from a CPT sounding into a single parameter. LPI data from the Monterey Bay region indicate that the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction is 58 and 93%, respectively, when LPI equals or exceeds 5 and 15. LPI values also generally correlate with surface effects of liquefaction: Decreasing from a median of 12 for soundings in lateral spreads to 0 for soundings where no surface effects were reported. The index is particularly promising for probabilistic liquefaction hazard mapping where it may be a useful parameter for characterizing the liquefaction potential of geologic units.

Characterisation of Liquefaction Effects for Beyond-Design Basis Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bán, Zoltán; Győri, Erzsébet; János Katona, Tamás; Tóth, László

2015-04-01

Preparedness of nuclear power plants to beyond design base external effects became high importance after 11th of March 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquakes. In case of some nuclear power plants constructed at the soft soil sites, liquefaction should be considered as a beyond design basis hazard. The consequences of liquefaction have to be analysed with the aim of definition of post-event plant condition, identification of plant vulnerabilities and planning the necessary measures for accident management. In the paper, the methodology of the analysis of liquefaction effects for nuclear power plants is outlined. The case of Nuclear Power Plant at Paks, Hungary is used as an example for demonstration of practical importance of the presented results and considerations. Contrary to the design, conservatism of the methodology for the evaluation of beyond design basis liquefaction effects for an operating plant has to be limited to a reasonable level. Consequently, applicability of all existing methods has to be considered for the best estimation. The adequacy and conclusiveness of the results is mainly limited by the epistemic uncertainty of the methods used for liquefaction hazard definition and definition of engineering parameters characterizing the consequences of liquefaction. The methods have to comply with controversial requirements. They have to be consistent and widely accepted and used in the practice. They have to be based on the comprehensive database. They have to provide basis for the evaluation of dominating engineering parameters that control the post-liquefaction response of the plant structures. Experience of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant hit by Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake of 16 July 2007 and analysis of site conditions and plant layout at Paks plant have shown that the differential settlement is found to be the dominating effect in case considered. They have to be based on the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and allow the integration into logic-tree procedure. Earlier studies have shown that the potentially liquefiable layer at Paks Nuclear Power Plant is situated in relatively large depth. Therefore the applicability and adequacy of the methods at high overburden pressure is important. In case of existing facilities, the geotechnical data gained before construction aren't sufficient for the comprehensive liquefaction analysis. Performance of new geotechnical survey is limited. Consequently, the availability of the data has to be accounted while selection the analysis methods. Considerations have to be made for dealing with aleatory uncertainty related to the knowledge of the soil conditions. It is shown in the paper, a careful comparison and analysis of the results obtained by different methodologies provides the basis of the selection of practicable methods for the safety analysis of nuclear power plant for beyond design basis liquefaction hazard.

Preliminary maps of Quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility, nine-county San Francisco Bay region, California: a digital database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knudsen, Keith L.; Sowers, Janet M.; Witter, Robert C.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Helley, Edward J.; Nicholson, Robert S.; Wright, Heather M.; Brown, Katherine H.

2000-01-01

This report presents a preliminary map and database of Quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility for the nine-county San Francisco Bay region, together with a digital compendium of ground effects associated with past earthquakes in the region. The report consists of (1) a spatial database of fivedata layers (Quaternary deposits, quadrangle index, and three ground effects layers) and two text layers (a labels and leaders layer for Quaternary deposits and for ground effects), (2) two small-scale colored maps (Quaternary deposits and liquefaction susceptibility), (3) a text describing the Quaternary map, liquefaction interpretation, and the ground effects compendium, and (4) the databse description pamphlet. The nine counties surrounding San Francisco Bay straddle the San Andreas fault system, which exposes the region to serious earthquake hazard (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1999). Much of the land adjacent to the Bay and the major rivers and streams is underlain by unconsolidated deposits that are particularly vulnerable to earthquake shaking and liquefaction of water-saturated granular sediment. This new map provides a modern and regionally consistent treatment of Quaternary surficial deposits that builds on the pioneering mapping of Helley and Lajoie (Helley and others, 1979) and such intervening work as Atwater (1982), Helley and others (1994), and Helley and Graymer (1997a and b). Like these earlier studies, the current mapping uses geomorphic expression, pedogenic soils, and inferred depositional environments to define and distinguish the map units. In contrast to the twelve map units of Helley and Lajoie, however, this new map uses a complex stratigraphy of some forty units, which permits a more realistic portrayal of the Quaternary depositional system. The two colored maps provide a regional summary of the new mapping at a scale of 1:275,000, a scale that is sufficient to show the general distribution and relationships of the map units but cannot distinguish the more detailed elements that are present in the database. The report is the product of years of cooperative work by the USGS National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program, William Lettis and & Associates, Inc. (WLA) and, more recently, by the California Division of Mines and Geology as well. An earlier version was submitted to the Geological Survey by WLA as a final report for a NEHRP grant (Knudsen and others, 2000). The mapping has been carried out by WLA geologists under contract to the NEHRP Earthquake Program (Grants #14-08-0001-G2129, 1434-94-G-2499, 1434-HQ-97-GR-03121, and 99-HQ-GR-0095) and with other limited support from the County of Napa, and recently also by the California Division of Mines and Geology. The current map consists of this new mapping and revisions of previous USGS mapping.

Screening guide for rapid assessment of liquefaction hazard at highway bridge sites

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-06-16

As an aid to seismic hazard assessment, this report provides a "screening guide" for systematic evaluation of liquefactin hazard at bridge sites and a guide for prioritizing sites for further investigation or mitigation. The guide presents a systemat...

Assessment of liquefaction potential index for Mumbai city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixit, J.; Dewaikar, D. M.; Jangid, R. S.

2012-09-01

Mumbai city is the financial capital of India and is fifth most densely populated city in the world. Seismic soil liquefaction is evaluated for Mumbai city in terms of the factors of safety against liquefaction (FS) along the depths of soil profiles for different earthquakes with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr using standard penetration test (SPT)-based simplified empirical procedure. This liquefaction potential is evaluated at 142 representative sites in the city using the borehole records from standard penetration tests. Liquefaction potential index (LPI) is evaluated at each borehole location from the obtained factors of safety (FS) to predict the potential of liquefaction to cause damage at the surface level at the site of interest. Spatial distribution of soil liquefaction potential is presented in the form of contour maps of LPI values. As the majority of the sites in the city are of reclaimed land, the vulnerability of liquefaction is observed to be very high at many places.

An Atlas of ShakeMaps for Landslide and Liquefaction Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, K. L.; Nowicki, M. A.; Mah, R. T.; Garcia, D.; Harp, E. L.; Godt, J. W.; Lin, K.; Wald, D. J.

2012-12-01

The human consequences of a seismic event are often a result of subsequent hazards induced by the earthquake, such as landslides. While the United States Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeMap and Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) systems are, in conjunction, capable of estimating the damage potential of earthquake shaking in near-real time, they do not currently provide estimates for the potential of further damage by secondary processes. We are developing a sound basis for providing estimates of the likelihood and spatial distribution of landslides for any global earthquake under the PAGER system. Here we discuss several important ingredients in this effort. First, we report on the development of a standardized hazard layer from which to calibrate observed landslide distributions; in contrast, prior studies have used a wide variety of means for estimating the hazard input. This layer now takes the form of a ShakeMap, a standardized approach for computing geospatial estimates for a variety of shaking metrics (both peak ground motions and shaking intensity) from any well-recorded earthquake. We have created ShakeMaps for about 20 historical landslide "case history" events, significant in terms of their landslide occurrence, as part of an updated release of the USGS ShakeMap Atlas. We have also collected digitized landslide data from open-source databases for many of the earthquake events of interest. When these are combined with up-to-date topographic and geologic maps, we have the basic ingredients for calibrating landslide probabilities for a significant collection of earthquakes. In terms of modeling, rather than focusing on mechanistic models of landsliding, we adopt a strictly statistical approach to quantify landslide likelihood. We incorporate geology, slope, peak ground acceleration, and landslide data as variables in a logistic regression, selecting the best explanatory variables given the standardized new hazard layers (see Nowicki et al., this meeting, for more detail on the regression). To make the ShakeMap and PAGER systems more comprehensive in terms of secondary losses, we are working to calibrate a similarly constrained regression for liquefaction estimation using a suite of well-studied earthquakes for which detailed, digitized liquefaction datasets are available; here variants of wetness index and soil strength replace geology and slope. We expect that this Atlas of ShakeMaps for landslide and liquefaction case history events, which will soon be publicly available via the internet, will aid in improving the accuracy of loss-modeling systems such as PAGER, as well as allow for a common framework for numerous other mechanistic and empirical studies.

Liquefaction at Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, T.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.; Tinsley, J. C.; Rosenberg, L.I.

2005-01-01

The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused liquefaction-induced lateral spreading at Oceano at an unexpectedly large distance from the seismogenic rupture. We conclude that the liquefaction was caused by ground motion that was enhanced by both rupture directivity in the mainshock and local site amplification by unconsolidated fine-grained deposits. Liquefaction occurred in sandy artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand and fluvial deposits. The largest and most damaging lateral spread was caused by liquefaction of artificial fill; the head of this lateral spread coincided with the boundary between the artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand deposits. Values of the liquefaction potential index, in general, were greater than 5 at liquefaction sites, the threshold value that has been proposed for liquefaction hazard mapping. Although the mainshock ground motion at Oceano was not recorded, peak ground acceleration was estimated to range from 0.25 and 0.28g on the basis of the liquefaction potential index and aftershock recordings. The estimates fall within the range of peak ground acceleration values associated with the modified Mercalli intensity = VII reported at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) "Did You Feel It?" web site.

Porous media deformation due to fluid flow: From hydrofracture formation to seismic liquefaction, a numerical and experimental study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toussaint, R.; Turkaya, S.; Eriksen, F.; Clément, C.; Sanchez-Colina, G.; Maloy, K. J.; Flekkoy, E.; Aharonov, E.; Lengliné, O.; Daniel, G.; Altshuler, E.; Batista-Leyva, A.; Niebling, M.

2016-12-01

We present here the deformation of porous media in two different situations: 1. The formation of channels and fracture during pressurization of pore fluids, as happens during eruptions or injection of fluids and gas into soils and rocks. 2. The liquefaction of soils at different degrees of saturations during Earthquakes. The formation of channels during hydrofracture and pneumatic fractures is studied in laboratory experiments and in numerical models. The experiments are done on different types of porous media in Hele-Shaw cells, where fluid is injected at controlled overpressures, and various boundary conditions are used. Using fast cameras, we determine the strain and velocity fields from the images. We also record the characteristics of micro-seismic emissions during the process, and link this seismic record features and the direct image of the displacement responsible for the seismic sources in the medium. We also carry out numerical simulations, using coupled fluid/solid hydrid models that capture solid stress, pore pressure, solid and fluid elasticity - a full poro-elasto-plastic model using granular representation of the solid and a continuous one for the fluid.Next, Soil liquefaction is a significant natural hazard associated with earthquakes. Some of its devastating effects include tilting and sinking of buildings and bridges, and destruction of pipelines. Conventional geotechnical engineering assumes liquefaction occurs via elevated pore pressure. This assumption guides construction for seismically hazardous locations, yet evidence suggests that liquefaction strikes also under currently unpredicted conditions. We show, using theory, simulations and experiments, another mechanism for liquefaction in saturated soils, without high pore fluid pressure and without special soils, whereby liquefaction is controlled by buoyancy forces. This new mechanism enlarges the window of conditions under which liquefaction is predicted to occur, and may explain previously not understood cases such as liquefaction in well-compacted soils, under drained conditions, repeated liquefaction cases, far-field liquefaction and the basics of sinking in quicksand. These results may greatly impact hazard assessment and mitigation in seismically active areas.

Multidisciplinary Geo-scientific Hazard Analyses: Istanbul Microzonation Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kara, Sema; Baş, Mahmut; Kılıç, Osman; Tarih, Ahmet; Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Duran, Kemal

2017-04-01

Istanbul (Turkey) is located on the west edge of North Anatolia Fault and hence is an earthquake prone city with a population that exceeds 15 million people. In addition, the city is still growing as center of commerce, tourism and culture that increases the exposure more and more. During the last decade, although Istanbul grew faster than ever in its history, precautions against a possible earthquake have also increased steadily. The two big earthquakes (in Kocaeli and Duzce Provinces) occurred in 1999 alongside Istanbul and these events became the trigger events that accelerated the disaster risk reduction activities in Istanbul. Following a loss estimation study carried out by Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2001 and Istanbul Earthquake Master Plan prepared by four major universities' researchers in 2003; it was evaluated that understanding and analyzing the geological structure in Istanbul was the main concern. Thereafter Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality's Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research (DEGRE) carried out two major geo-scientific studies called "microzonation studies" covering 650 km2 of Istanbul's urbanized areas between 2006 and 2009. The studies were called "microzonation" because the analysis resolution was as dense as 250m grids and included various assessments on hazards such as ground shaking, liquefaction, karstification, landslide, flooding, and surface faulting. After the evaluation of geological, geotechnical and geophysical measurements; Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Maps for all Istanbul, slope, engineering geology, ground water level, faulting, ground shaking, inundation, shear wave velocity and soil classification maps for the project areas were obtained. In the end "Land Suitability Maps" are derived from the combination of inputs using multi-hazard approach. As a result, microzonation is tool for risk oriented urban planning; consisting of interdisciplinary multi-hazard risk analyses. The outputs of microzonation are used in land development/use plans, hazard identification in urban transformation, determination of the routes and characteristics of various types of engineering structures such as highways, tunnels, bridges, railroads, viaducts and ports. Hence, by the use of detailed geo-scientific analyses, basics of earthquake resilient urbanization is guaranteed.

Probabilistic versus deterministic hazard assessment in liquefaction susceptible zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Gerosa, Daniele; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2015-04-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), usually adopted in the framework of seismic codes redaction, is based on Poissonian description of the temporal occurrence, negative exponential distribution of magnitude and attenuation relationship with log-normal distribution of PGA or response spectrum. The main positive aspect of this approach stems into the fact that is presently a standard for the majority of countries, but there are weak points in particular regarding the physical description of the earthquake phenomenon. Factors like site effects, source characteristics like duration of the strong motion and directivity that could significantly influence the expected motion at the site are not taken into account by PSHA. Deterministic models can better evaluate the ground motion at a site from a physical point of view, but its prediction reliability depends on the degree of knowledge of the source, wave propagation and soil parameters. We compare these two approaches in selected sites affected by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, that caused widespread liquefaction phenomena unusually for magnitude less than 6. We focus on sites liquefiable because of their soil mechanical parameters and water table level. Our analysis shows that the choice between deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis is strongly dependent on site conditions. The looser the soil and the higher the liquefaction potential, the more suitable is the deterministic approach. Source characteristics, in particular the duration of strong ground motion, have long since recognized as relevant to induce liquefaction; unfortunately a quantitative prediction of these parameters appears very unlikely, dramatically reducing the possibility of their adoption in hazard assessment. Last but not least, the economic factors are relevant in the choice of the approach. The case history of 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, with an officially estimated cost of 6 billions Euros, shows that geological and geophysical investigations necessary to assess a reliable deterministic hazard evaluation are largely justified.

Earthquake Loading Assessment to Evaluate Liquefaction Potential in Emilia-Romagna Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, R.; Marcellini, A.; Tento, A.

2016-12-01

The May-June 2012 seismic sequence that struck Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna consisted of seven main events of magnitude greater than 5 followed by numerous aftershocks. The strongest earthquakes occurred on May 20 (M=5.9) and May 29 (M=5.8). The widespread soil liquefaction, unexpected because of the moderate magnitude of the events, pushed the local authorities to issue research projects aimed to define the earthquake loading to evaluate the liquefaction safety factor. The reasons explained below led us to adopt a deterministic hazard approach to evaluate the seismic parameters relevant to liquefaction assessment, despite the fact that the Italian Seismic Building Code (NTC08) is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. For urban planning and building design geologists generally adopt the CRR/CSR technique to assess liquefaction potential; therefore we considered PGA and a design magnitude to be representative of the seismic loading. The procedure adopted consists: a) identification of seismic source zones and characterization of each zone by the maximum magnitude; b) evaluation of the source to site distance and c) adoption of a suitable attenuation law to compute the expected PGA at the site, given the site condition and the design magnitude. The design magnitude can be: the maximum magnitude; the magnitude that causes the largest PGA, or both. The PGA values obtained are larger with respect to the 474 years return period PGA prescribed by NTC08 for the seismic design for ordinary buildings. We conducted a CPTU resistance test intended to define the CRR at the village of Cavezzo, situated in the epicentral area of the 2012 earthquake. The CRR/CSR ratio led to an elevated liquefaction risk at the analysed site. On the contrary the adoption of the 474 years return period PGA of the NTCO8 prescribed for Cavezzo site led to a negligible liquefaction risk. Note that very close to the investigated site several liquefaction phenomena were observed.

Earthquake Loading Assessment to Evaluate Liquefaction Potential in Emilia-Romagna Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2017-04-01

The May-June 2012 seismic sequence that struck Lombardia and Emilia-Romagna consisted of seven main events of magnitude greater than 5 followed by numerous aftershocks. The strongest earthquakes occurred on May 20 (M=5.9) and May 29 (M=5.8). The widespread soil liquefaction, unexpected because of the moderate magnitude of the events, pushed the local authorities to issue research projects aimed to define the earthquake loading to evaluate the liquefaction safety factor. The reasons explained below led us to adopt a deterministic hazard approach to evaluate the seismic parameters relevant to liquefaction assessment, despite the fact that the Italian Seismic Building Code (NTC08) is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. For urban planning and building design geologists generally adopt the CRR/CSR technique to assess liquefaction potential; therefore we considered PGA and a design magnitude to be representative of the seismic loading. The procedure adopted consists: a) identification of seismic source zones and characterization of each zone by the maximum magnitude; b) evaluation of the source to site distance and c) adoption of a suitable attenuation law to compute the expected PGA at the site, given the site condition and the design magnitude. The design magnitude can be: the maximum magnitude; the magnitude that causes the largest PGA, or both. The PGA values obtained are larger with respect to the 474 years return period PGA prescribed by NTC08 for the seismic design for ordinary buildings. We conducted a CPTU resistance test intended to define the CRR at the village of Cavezzo, situated in the epicentral area of the 2012 earthquake. The CRR/CSR ratio led to an elevated liquefaction risk at the analysed site. On the contrary the adoption of the 474 years return period PGA of the NTCO8 prescribed for Cavezzo site led to a negligible liquefaction risk. Note that very close to the investigated site several liquefaction phenomena were observed.

Spatial earthquake hazard assessment of Evansville, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rockaway, T.D.; Frost, J.D.; Eggert, D.L.; Luna, R.

1997-01-01

The earthquake hazard has been evaluated for a 150-square-kilometer area around Evansville, Indiana. GIS-QUAKE, a system that combines liquefaction and ground motion analysis routines with site-specific geological, geotechnical, and seismological information, was used for the analysis. The hazard potential was determined by using 586 SPT borings, 27 CPT sounding, 39 shear-wave velocity profiles and synthesized acceleration records for body-wave magnitude 6.5 and 7.3 mid-continental earthquakes, occurring at distances of 50 km and 250 km, respectively. The results of the GIS-QUAKE hazard analyses for Evansville identify areas with a high hazard potential that had not previously been identified in earthquake zonation studies. The Pigeon Creek area specifically is identified as having significant potential for liquefaction-induced damage. Damage as a result of ground motion amplification is determined to be a moderate concern throughout the area. Differences in the findings of this zonation study and previous work are attributed to the size and range of the database, the hazard evaluation methodologies, and the geostatistical interpolation techniques used to estimate the hazard potential. Further, assumptions regarding the groundwater elevations made in previous studies are also considered to have had a significant effect on the results.

Post Hoc Analysis of Passive Cavitation Imaging for Classification of Histotripsy-Induced Liquefaction in Vitro.

PubMed

Bader, Kenneth B; Haworth, Kevin J; Maxwell, Adam D; Holland, Christy K

2018-01-01

Histotripsy utilizes focused ultrasound to generate bubble clouds for transcutaneous tissue liquefaction. Bubble activity maps are under development to provide image guidance and monitor treatment progress. The aim of this paper was to investigate the feasibility of using plane wave B-mode and passive cavitation images to be used as binary classifiers of histotripsy-induced liquefaction. Prostate tissue phantoms were exposed to histotripsy pulses over a range of pulse durations (5- ) and peak negative pressures (12-23 MPa). Acoustic emissions were recorded during the insonation and beamformed to form passive cavitation images. Plane wave B-mode images were acquired following the insonation to detect the hyperechoic bubble cloud. Phantom samples were sectioned and stained to delineate the liquefaction zone. Correlation between passive cavitation and plane wave B-mode images and the liquefaction zone was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Liquefaction of the phantom was observed for all the insonation conditions. The area under the ROC (0.94 versus 0.82), accuracy (0.90 versus 0.83), and sensitivity (0.81 versus 0.49) was greater for passive cavitation images relative to B-mode images ( ) along the azimuth of the liquefaction zone. The specificity was greater than 0.9 for both imaging modalities. These results demonstrate a stronger correlation between histotripsy-induced liquefaction and passive cavitation imaging compared with the plane wave B-mode imaging, albeit with limited passive cavitation image range resolution.

Hydrothermal Liquefaction Treatment Hazard Analysis Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

Hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the modular hydrothermal liquefaction treatment system. The hazard assessment process was performed in 2 stages. An initial assessment utilizing Hazard Identification and Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) techniques identified areas with significant or unique hazards (process safety-related hazards) that fall outside of the normal operating envelope of PNNL and warranted additional analysis. The subsequent assessment was based on a qualitative What-If analysis. The analysis was augmented, as necessary, by additional quantitative analysis for scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy with the potential for affecting the public. The following selected hazardous scenarios receivedmore » increased attention: •Scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy, controls were identified in the What-If analysis table that prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release. •Scenarios with significant consequences that could impact personnel outside the immediate operations area, quantitative analyses were performed to determine the potential magnitude of the scenario. The set of “critical controls” were identified for these scenarios (see Section 4) which prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release of events with significant consequences.« less

Assessment of seismic hazards along the northern Gulf of Aqaba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abueladas, Abdel-Rahman Aqel

Aqaba and Elat are very important port and recreation cities for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Israel, respectively. The two cities are the most susceptible to damage from a destructive future earthquake because they are located over the tectonically active Dead Sea transform fault (DST) that is the source of most of the major historical earthquakes in the region. The largest twentieth century earthquake on the DST, the magnitude Mw 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake of November 22, 1995, caused damage to structures in both cities. The integration of geological, geophysical, and earthquake engineering studies will help to assess the seismic hazards by determining the location and slip potential of active faults and by mapping areas of high liquefaction susceptibility. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) as a high resolution shallow geophysical tool was used to map the shallow active faults in Aqaba, Taba Sabkha area, and Elat. The GPR data revealed the onshore continuation of the Evrona, West Aqaba, Aqaba fault zones, and several transverse faults. The integration of offshore and onshore data confirm the extension of these faults along both sides of the Gulf of Aqaba. A 3D model of GPR data at one site in Aqaba indicates that the NW-trending transverse faults right laterally offset older than NE-trending faults. The most hazardous fault is the Evrona fault which extends north to the Tabs Sabkha. A geographic information system (GIS) database of the seismic hazard was created in order to facilitate the analyzing, manipulation, and updating of the input parameters. Liquefaction potential maps were created for the region based on analysis of borehole data. The liquefaction map shows high and moderate liquefaction susceptibility zones along the northern coast of the Gulf of Aqaba. In Aqaba several hotels are located within a high and moderate liquefaction zones. The Yacht Club, Aqaba, Ayla archaeological site, and a part of commercial area are also situated in a risk area. A part of residential site of the Saraya Development and the southern part of Ayla Oasis Development project area are located within a high susceptibility zone In Elat, the seaport and most hotels are located within a high susceptibility zone. Fortunately most residence areas, schools, and hospitals in both cities are located within zones not susceptible to liquefaction. A setback, or no build zone, is delineated around active faults to allow a suitable level of conservatism or factor of safety, residential, hotels, commercial buildings, schools, and other facilities are located inside this buffer in Aqaba area. These data will help planners, engineer instructions within the rapidly developing the northern Gulf of Aqaba.

Liquefaction assessment based on combined use of CPT and shear wave velocity measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bán, Zoltán; Mahler, András; Győri, Erzsébet

2017-04-01

Soil liquefaction is one of the most devastating secondary effects of earthquakes and can cause significant damage in built infrastructure. For this reason liquefaction hazard shall be considered in all regions where moderate-to-high seismic activity encounters with saturated, loose, granular soil deposits. Several approaches exist to take into account this hazard, from which the in-situ test based empirical methods are the most commonly used in practice. These methods are generally based on the results of CPT, SPT or shear wave velocity measurements. In more complex or high risk projects CPT and VS measurement are often performed at the same location commonly in the form of seismic CPT. Furthermore, VS profile determined by surface wave methods can also supplement the standard CPT measurement. However, combined use of both in-situ indices in one single empirical method is limited. For this reason, the goal of this research was to develop such an empirical method within the framework of simplified empirical procedures where the results of CPT and VS measurements are used in parallel and can supplement each other. The combination of two in-situ indices, a small strain property measurement with a large strain measurement, can reduce uncertainty of empirical methods. In the first step by careful reviewing of the already existing liquefaction case history databases, sites were selected where the records of both CPT and VS measurement are available. After implementing the necessary corrections on the gathered 98 case histories with respect to fines content, overburden pressure and magnitude, a logistic regression was performed to obtain the probability contours of liquefaction occurrence. Logistic regression is often used to explore the relationship between a binary response and a set of explanatory variables. The occurrence or absence of liquefaction can be considered as binary outcome and the equivalent clean sand value of normalized overburden corrected cone tip resistance (qc1Ncs), the overburden corrected shear wave velocity (V S1), and the magnitude and effective stress corrected cyclic stress ratio (CSRM=7.5,σv'=1atm) were considered as input variables. In this case the graphical representation of the cyclic resistance ratio curve for a given probability has been replaced by a surface that separates the liquefaction and non-liquefaction cases.

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard models and maps for the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell L.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Haller, Kathleen M.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe the scientific basis for the source and ground-motion models applied in the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Maps, the development of new products that are used for building design and risk analyses, relationships between the hazard maps and design maps used in building codes, and potential future improvements to the hazard maps.

A Gis Model Application Supporting The Analysis of The Seismic Hazard For The Urban Area of Catania (italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, S.; Maugeri, M.

After the Summit held in Washington on August 20-22 2001 to plan the first World Conference on the mitigation of Natural Hazards, a Group for the analysis of Natural Hazards within the Mediterranean area has been formed. The Group has so far determined the following hazards: (1) Seismic hazard (hazard for historical buildings included); (2) Hazard linked to the quantity and quality of water; (3) Landslide hazard; (4) Volcanic hazard. The analysis of such hazards implies the creation and the management of data banks, which can only be used if the data are properly geo-settled to allow a crossed use of them. The obtained results must be therefore represented on geo-settled maps. The present study is part of a research programme, namely "Detailed Scenarios and Actions for Seismic Prevention of Damage in the Urban Area of Catania", financed by the National Department for the Civil Protection and the National Research Council-National Group for the Defence Against Earthquakes (CNR-GNDT). Nowadays the south-eastern area of Sicily, called the "Iblea" seismic area of Sicily, is considered as one of the most intense seismic zones in Italy, based on the past and current seismic history and on the typology of civil buildings. Safety against earthquake hazards has two as pects: structural safety against potentially destructive dynamic forces and site safety related to geotechnical phenomena such as amplification, land sliding and soil liquefaction. So the correct evaluation of seismic hazard is highly affected by risk factors due to geological nature and geotechnical properties of soils. The effect of local geotechnical conditions on damages suffered by buildings under seismic conditions has been widely recognized, as it is demonstrated by the Manual for Zonation on Seismic Geotechnical Hazards edited by the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (TC4, 1999). The evaluation of local amplification effects may be carried out by means of either rigorous complex methods of analysis or qualitative procedures. A semi quantitative procedure based on the definition of the geotechnical hazard index has been applied for the zonation of the seismic geotechnical hazard of the city of Catania. In particular this procedure has been applied to define the influence of geotechnical properties of soil in a central area of the city of Catania, where some historical buildings of great importance are sited. It was also performed an investigation based on the inspection of more than one hundred historical ecclesiastical buildings of great importance, located in the city. Then, in order to identify the amplification effects due to the site conditions, a geotechnical survey form was prepared, to allow a semi quantitative evaluation of the seismic geotechnical hazard for all these historical buildings. In addition, to evaluate the foundation soil time -history response, a 1-D dynamic soil model was employed for all these buildings, considering the non linearity of soil behaviour. Using a GIS, a map of the seismic geotechnical hazard, of the liquefaction hazard and a preliminary map of the seismic hazard for the city of Catania have been obtained. From the analysis of obtained results it may be noticed that high hazard zones are mainly clayey sites

Hazard Maps in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, John A.

1988-01-01

Emphasizes the use of geophysical hazard maps and illustrates how they can be used in the classroom from kindergarten to college level. Depicts ways that hazard maps of floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, and multi-hazards can be integrated into classroom instruction. Tells how maps may be obtained. (SLM)

Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2011-01-01

We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

Integrating landslide and liquefaction hazard and loss estimates with existing USGS real-time earthquake information products

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allstadt, Kate E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Hearne, Mike; Nowicki Jessee, M. Anna; Zhu, J.; Wald, David J.; Tanyas, Hakan

2017-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made significant progress toward the rapid estimation of shaking and shakingrelated losses through their Did You Feel It? (DYFI), ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER products. However, quantitative estimates of the extent and severity of secondary hazards (e.g., landsliding, liquefaction) are not currently included in scenarios and real-time post-earthquake products despite their significant contributions to hazard and losses for many events worldwide. We are currently running parallel global statistical models for landslides and liquefaction developed with our collaborators in testing mode, but much work remains in order to operationalize these systems. We are expanding our efforts in this area by not only improving the existing statistical models, but also by (1) exploring more sophisticated, physics-based models where feasible; (2) incorporating uncertainties; and (3) identifying and undertaking research and product development to provide useful landslide and liquefaction estimates and their uncertainties. Although our existing models use standard predictor variables that are accessible globally or regionally, including peak ground motions, topographic slope, and distance to water bodies, we continue to explore readily available proxies for rock and soil strength as well as other susceptibility terms. This work is based on the foundation of an expanding, openly available, case-history database we are compiling along with historical ShakeMaps for each event. The expected outcome of our efforts is a robust set of real-time secondary hazards products that meet the needs of a wide variety of earthquake information users. We describe the available datasets and models, developments currently underway, and anticipated products. 

Multisensor and Multispectral Approach in Documenting and Analyzing Liquefaction Hazard using Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oommen, T.; Baise, L. G.; Gens, R.; Prakash, A.; Gupta, R. P.

2008-12-01

Seismic liquefaction is the loss of strength of soil due to shaking that leads to various ground failures such as lateral spreading, settlements, tilting, and sand boils. It is important to document these failures after earthquakes to advance our study of when and where liquefaction occurs. The current approach of mapping these failures by field investigation teams suffers due to the inaccessibility to some of the sites immediately after the event, short life of some of these failures, difficulties in mapping the aerial extent of the failure, incomplete coverage etc. After the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (India), researchers, using the Indian remote sensing satellite, illustrated that satellite remote sensing can provide a synoptic view of the terrain and offer unbiased estimates of liquefaction failures. However, a multisensor (data from different sensors onboard of the same or different satellites) and multispectral (data collected in different spectral regions) approach is needed to efficiently document liquefaction incidences and/or its potential of occurrence due to the possibility of a particular satellite being located inappropriately to image an area shortly after an earthquake. The use of SAR satellite imagery ensures the acquisition of data in all weather conditions at day and night as well as information complimentary to the optical data sets. In this study, we analyze the applicability of the various satellites (Landsat, RADARSAT, Terra-MISR, IRS-1C, IRS-1D) in mapping liquefaction failures after the 2001 Bhuj earthquake using Support Vector Data Description (SVDD). The SVDD is a kernel based nonparametric outlier detection algorithm inspired by the Support Vector Machines (SVMs), which is a new generation learning algorithm based on the statistical learning theory. We present the applicability of SVDD for unsupervised change-detection studies (i.e. to identify post-earthquake liquefaction failures). The liquefaction occurrences identified from the different satellites using SVDD have been compared to the ground truth in terms of documented liquefaction failures by other researchers. We present the applicability and appropriateness of the various satellites and spectral regions for documenting liquefaction related failures. Results illustrate that the SVDD is a promising unsupervised change-detection algorithm, which can help in automating the documentation of earthquake induced liquefaction failures.

Quaternary Geology and Liquefaction Susceptibility, Napa, California 1:100,000 Quadrangle: A Digital Database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sowers, Janet M.; Noller, Jay S.; Lettis, William R.

1998-01-01

Earthquake-induced ground failures such as liquefaction have historically brought loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure. Observations of the effects of historical large-magnitude earthquakes show that the distribution of liquefaction phenomena is not random. Liquefaction is restricted to areas underlain by loose, cohesionless sands and silts that are saturated with water. These areas can be delineated on the basis of thorough geologic, geomorphic, and hydrologic mapping and map analysis (Tinsley and Holzer, 1990; Youd and Perkins, 1987). Once potential liquefaction zones are delineated, appropriate public and private agencies can prepare for and mitigate seismic hazard in these zones. In this study, we create a liquefaction susceptibility map of the Napa 1:100,000 quadrangle using Quaternary geologic mapping, analysis of historical liquefaction information, groundwater data, and data from other studies. The study is atterned after state-of-the-art studies by Youd (1973) Dupre and Tinsley (1980) and Dupre (1990) in the Monterey-Santa Cruz area, Tinsley and others (1985) in the Los Angeles area, and Youd and Perkins (1987) in San Mateo County, California. The study area comprises the northern San Francisco Metropolitan Area, including the cities of Santa Rosa, Vallejo, Napa, Novato, Martinez, and Fairfield (Figure 1). Holocene estuarine deposits, Holocene stream deposits, eolian sands, and artificial fill are widely present in the region (Helley and Lajoie, 1979) and are the geologic materials of greatest concern. Six major faults capable of producing large earthquakes cross the study area, including the San Andreas, Rodgers Creek, Hayward, West Napa, Concord, and Green Valley faults (Figure 1).

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Montreal -An Application of HAZUS-MH4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Keyan

2011-12-01

Seismic loss estimation for Montreal, Canada is performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic hazard using the HAZUS-MH4 tool developed by US Federal Emergency Management. The software is manipulated to accept a Canadian setting for the Montreal study region, which includes 522 census tracts. The accuracy of loss estimations using HAZUS is dependent on the quality and quantity of data collection and preparation. The data collected for Montreal study region comprise: (1) the building inventory (2) hazard maps regarding soil amplification, liquefaction, and landslides (3) population distribution at three different times of the day (4) census demographic information and (5) synthetic ground motion contour maps using three different ground motion prediction equations. All these data are prepared and assembled into geodatabases that are compatible with the HAZUS software. The study estimated that roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for a scenario corresponding to the 2% in 50 years scenario. The maximum number of casualties associated with this scenario corresponds to a time of occurrence of 2pm and would result in approximately 500 people being injured. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggests that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. The next steps in the study should be to increase the size of the survey area to the Greater Montreal which includes more than 3 million inhabitants and to perform more targeted studies for critical areas such as downtown Montreal, and the south-eastern tip of Montreal. The current study was performed mainly for the built environment; the next phase will need to include more information relative to lifelines and their impact on risks.

Overview of the recommended procedures dealing with the evaluation of liquefaction-induced deformation allong a pipeline corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathanassiou, George

2016-04-01

The last decade several pipeline corridors have been designed in order to transmit to Europe natural gas and oil from Asia. Although the fact that a pipeline is considered as an underground structure, an analysis of earthquake-induced structural failures should be conducted in prone to earthquake countries e.g. Greece, Italy in EU. The aim of these specific analyses is to assess and evaluate the hazard and the relevant risk induced by earthquake-induced slope failures and soil liquefaction. The latter is a phenomenon that is triggered under specific site conditions. In particular the basic ingredients for the occurrence of liquefaction is the surficial water table, the existence of non-plastic or low plasticity soil layer and the generation of strong ground motion. Regarding the liquefaction-induced deformation that should be assessed and evaluated in order to minimize the risk, it is concluded that the pervasive types of ground failures for level to gently sloping sites are the ground settlements and lateral spreads. The goal of this study is to overview the most widely approaches used for the computation of liquefaction-induced settlement and to present a more detailed description, step by step, of the methodology that is recommended to follow for the evaluation of lateral spreading.

Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Wheeler, Russell L.; Wesson, Robert L.; Zeng, Yuehua; Boyd, Oliver S.; Perkins, David M.; Luco, Nicolas; Field, Edward H.; Wills, Chris J.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2008-01-01

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels across the United States and are applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. This update of the maps incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, faults, seismicity, and geodesy. The resulting maps are derived from seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of sites across the United States that describe the frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. The USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project developed these maps by incorporating information on potential earthquakes and associated ground shaking obtained from interaction in science and engineering workshops involving hundreds of participants, review by several science organizations and State surveys, and advice from two expert panels. The National Seismic Hazard Maps represent our assessment of the 'best available science' in earthquake hazards estimation for the United States (maps of Alaska and Hawaii as well as further information on hazard across the United States are available on our Web site at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/hazmaps/).

Seismic Hazard Maps for Seattle, Washington, Incorporating 3D Sedimentary Basin Effects, Nonlinear Site Response, and Rupture Directivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur D.; Stephenson, William J.; Carver, David L.; Williams, Robert A.; Odum, Jack K.; Rhea, Susan

2007-01-01

This report presents probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Seattle, Washington, based on over 500 3D simulations of ground motions from scenario earthquakes. These maps include 3D sedimentary basin effects and rupture directivity. Nonlinear site response for soft-soil sites of fill and alluvium was also applied in the maps. The report describes the methodology for incorporating source and site dependent amplification factors into a probabilistic seismic hazard calculation. 3D simulations were conducted for the various earthquake sources that can affect Seattle: Seattle fault zone, Cascadia subduction zone, South Whidbey Island fault, and background shallow and deep earthquakes. The maps presented in this document used essentially the same set of faults and distributed-earthquake sources as in the 2002 national seismic hazard maps. The 3D velocity model utilized in the simulations was validated by modeling the amplitudes and waveforms of observed seismograms from five earthquakes in the region, including the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually earthquake. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps presented here depict 1 Hz response spectral accelerations with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The maps are based on determinations of seismic hazard for 7236 sites with a spacing of 280 m. The maps show that the most hazardous locations for this frequency band (around 1 Hz) are soft-soil sites (fill and alluvium) within the Seattle basin and along the inferred trace of the frontal fault of the Seattle fault zone. The next highest hazard is typically found for soft-soil sites in the Duwamish Valley south of the Seattle basin. In general, stiff-soil sites in the Seattle basin exhibit higher hazard than stiff-soil sites outside the basin. Sites with shallow bedrock outside the Seattle basin have the lowest estimated hazard for this frequency band.

Geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States (excluding California) national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Zeng, Yuehua; Haller, Kathleen M.; McCaffrey, Robert; Hammond, William C.; Bird, Peter; Moschetti, Morgan; Shen, Zhengkang; Bormann, Jayne; Thatcher, Wayne

2014-01-01

The 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the conterminous United States incorporate additional uncertainty in fault slip-rate parameter that controls the earthquake-activity rates than was applied in previous versions of the hazard maps. This additional uncertainty is accounted for by new geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States. Models that were considered include an updated geologic model based on expert opinion and four combined inversion models informed by both geologic and geodetic input. The two block models considered indicate significantly higher slip rates than the expert opinion and the two fault-based combined inversion models. For the hazard maps, we apply 20 percent weight with equal weighting for the two fault-based models. Off-fault geodetic-based models were not considered in this version of the maps. Resulting changes to the hazard maps are generally less than 0.05 g (acceleration of gravity). Future research will improve the maps and interpret differences between the new models.

Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, Robert L.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Bufe, Charles G.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2007-01-01

We present here time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.001026) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.0021). These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data and assumptions reflecting best current judgments about methodology and approach. These maps have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States. A significant improvement relative to the 2002 methodology is the ability to include variable slip rate along a fault where appropriate. These maps incorporate new data, the responses to comments received at workshops held in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, in May, 2005, and comments received after draft maps were posted on the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Web Site. These maps will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. In this documentation we describe the maps and in particular explain and justify changes that have been made relative to the 1999 maps. We are also preparing a series of experimental maps of time-dependent hazard that will be described in future documents.

Urban Seismic Hazard Mapping for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan

2006-01-01

Earthquakes cannot be predicted, but scientists can forecast how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake. Seismic hazard maps provide one way of conveying such forecasts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces seismic hazard maps for the Nation, is now engaged in developing more detailed maps for vulnerable urban areas. The first set of these maps is now available for Memphis, Tennessee.

Integrating volcanic hazard data in a systematic approach to develop volcanic hazard maps in the Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, Jan M.; Robertson, Richard E. A.

2018-04-01

We report on the process of generating the first suite of integrated volcanic hazard zonation maps for the islands of Dominica, Grenada (including Kick 'em Jenny and Ronde/Caille), Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saint Lucia and St Vincent in the Lesser Antilles. We developed a systematic approach that accommodated the range in prior knowledge of the volcanoes in the region. A first-order hazard assessment for each island was used to develop one or more scenario(s) of likely future activity, for which scenario-based hazard maps were generated. For the most-likely scenario on each island we also produced a poster-sized integrated volcanic hazard zonation map, which combined the individual hazardous phenomena depicted in the scenario-based hazard maps into integrated hazard zones. We document the philosophy behind the generation of this suite of maps, and the method by which hazard information was combined to create integrated hazard zonation maps, and illustrate our approach through a case study of St. Vincent. We also outline some of the challenges we faced using this approach, and the lessons we have learned by observing how stakeholders have interacted with the maps over the past 10 years. Based on our experience, we recommend that future map makers involve stakeholders in the entire map generation process, especially when making design choices such as type of base map, use of colour and gradational boundaries, and indeed what to depict on the map. We also recommend careful consideration of how to evaluate and depict offshore hazard of island volcanoes, and recommend computer-assisted modelling of all phenomena to generate more realistic hazard footprints. Finally, although our systematic approach to integrating individual hazard data into zones generally worked well, we suggest that a better approach might be to treat the integration of hazards on a case-by-case basis to ensure the final product meets map users' needs. We hope that the documentation of our experience might be useful for other map makers to take into account when creating new or updating existing maps.

Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

2014-06-01

Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

Comparing the Performance of Japan's Earthquake Hazard Maps to Uniform and Randomized Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S. A.; Spencer, B. D.

2015-12-01

The devastating 2011 magnitude 9.1 Tohoku earthquake and the resulting shaking and tsunami were much larger than anticipated in earthquake hazard maps. Because this and all other earthquakes that caused ten or more fatalities in Japan since 1979 occurred in places assigned a relatively low hazard, Geller (2011) argued that "all of Japan is at risk from earthquakes, and the present state of seismological science does not allow us to reliably differentiate the risk level in particular geographic areas," so a map showing uniform hazard would be preferable to the existing map. Defenders of the maps countered by arguing that these earthquakes are low-probability events allowed by the maps, which predict the levels of shaking that should expected with a certain probability over a given time. Although such maps are used worldwide in making costly policy decisions for earthquake-resistant construction, how well these maps actually perform is unknown. We explore this hotly-contested issue by comparing how well a 510-year-long record of earthquake shaking in Japan is described by the Japanese national hazard (JNH) maps, uniform maps, and randomized maps. Surprisingly, as measured by the metric implicit in the JNH maps, i.e. that during the chosen time interval the predicted ground motion should be exceeded only at a specific fraction of the sites, both uniform and randomized maps do better than the actual maps. However, using as a metric the squared misfit between maximum observed shaking and that predicted, the JNH maps do better than uniform or randomized maps. These results indicate that the JNH maps are not performing as well as expected, that what factors control map performance is complicated, and that learning more about how maps perform and why would be valuable in making more effective policy.

Central US earthquake catalog for hazard maps of Memphis, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, R.L.; Mueller, C.S.

2001-01-01

An updated version of the catalog that was used for the current national probabilistic seismic-hazard maps would suffice for production of large-scale hazard maps of the Memphis urban area. Deaggregation maps provide guidance as to the area that a catalog for calculating Memphis hazard should cover. For the future, the Nuttli and local network catalogs could be examined for earthquakes not presently included in the catalog. Additional work on aftershock removal might reduce hazard uncertainty. Graphs of decadal and annual earthquake rates suggest completeness at and above magnitude 3 for the last three or four decades. Any additional work on completeness should consider the effects of rapid, local population changes during the Nation's westward expansion. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Alteration, slope-classified alteration, and potential lahar inundation maps of volcanoes for the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Volcano Archive

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mars, John C.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Pieri, David; Linick, Justin

2015-01-01

This study was undertaken during 2012–2013 in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Since completion of this study, a new lahar modeling program (LAHAR_pz) has been released, which may produce slightly different modeling results from the LAHARZ model used in this study. The maps and data from this study should not be used in place of existing volcano hazard maps published by local authorities. For volcanoes without hazard maps and (or) published lahar-related hazard studies, this work will provide a starting point from which more accurate hazard maps can be produced. This is the first dataset to provide digital maps of altered volcanoes and adjacent watersheds that can be used for assessing volcanic hazards, hydrothermal alteration, and other volcanic processes in future studies.

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Barnhard, T.P.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Wesson, R.L.; Harmsen, S.C.; Klein, F.W.; Perkins, D.M.; Dickman, N.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Hopper, M.G.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council arid published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

PAGER-CAT: A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Marano, K.D.; Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.

2009-01-01

We have described the compilation and contents of PAGER-CAT, an earthquake catalog developed principally for calibrating earthquake fatality models. It brings together information from a range of sources in a comprehensive, easy to use digital format. Earthquake source information (e.g., origin time, hypocenter, and magnitude) contained in PAGER-CAT has been used to develop an Atlas of Shake Maps of historical earthquakes (Allen et al. 2008) that can subsequently be used to estimate the population exposed to various levels of ground shaking (Wald et al. 2008). These measures will ultimately yield improved earthquake loss models employing the uniform hazard mapping methods of ShakeMap. Currently PAGER-CAT does not consistently contain indicators of landslide and liquefaction occurrence prior to 1973. In future PAGER-CAT releases we plan to better document the incidence of these secondary hazards. This information is contained in some existing global catalogs but is far from complete and often difficult to parse. Landslide and liquefaction hazards can be important factors contributing to earthquake losses (e.g., Marano et al. unpublished). Consequently, the absence of secondary hazard indicators in PAGER-CAT, particularly for events prior to 1973, could be misleading to sorne users concerned with ground-shaking-related losses. We have applied our best judgment in the selection of PAGER-CAT's preferred source parameters and earthquake effects. We acknowledge the creation of a composite catalog always requires subjective decisions, but we believe PAGER-CAT represents a significant step forward in bringing together the best available estimates of earthquake source parameters and reports of earthquake effects. All information considered in PAGER-CAT is stored as provided in its native catalog so that other users can modify PAGER preferred parameters based on their specific needs or opinions. As with all catalogs, the values of some parameters listed in PAGER-CAT are highly uncertain, particularly the casualty numbers, which must be regarded as estimates rather than firm numbers for many earthquakes. Consequently, we encourage contributions from the seismology and earthquake engineering communities to further improve this resource via the Wikipedia page and personal communications, for the benefit of the whole community.

Documentation for Initial Seismic Hazard Maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2010-01-01

In response to the urgent need for earthquake-hazard information after the tragic disaster caused by the moment magnitude (M) 7.0 January 12, 2010, earthquake, we have constructed initial probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Haiti. These maps are based on the current information we have on fault slip rates and historical and instrumental seismicity. These initial maps will be revised and improved as more data become available. In the short term, more extensive logic trees will be developed to better capture the uncertainty in key parameters. In the longer term, we will incorporate new information on fault parameters and previous large earthquakes obtained from geologic fieldwork. These seismic hazard maps are important for the management of the current crisis and the development of building codes and standards for the rebuilding effort. The boundary between the Caribbean and North American Plates in the Hispaniola region is a complex zone of deformation. The highly oblique ~20 mm/yr convergence between the two plates (DeMets and others, 2000) is partitioned between subduction zones off of the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola and strike-slip faults that transect the northern and southern portions of the island. There are also thrust faults within the island that reflect the compressional component of motion caused by the geometry of the plate boundary. We follow the general methodology developed for the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps and also as implemented in the 2002 and 2008 updates. This procedure consists of adding the seismic hazard calculated from crustal faults, subduction zones, and spatially smoothed seismicity for shallow earthquakes and Wadati-Benioff-zone earthquakes. Each one of these source classes will be described below. The lack of information on faults in Haiti requires many assumptions to be made. These assumptions will need to be revisited and reevaluated as more fieldwork and research are accomplished. We made two sets of maps using different assumptions about site conditions. One set of maps is for a firm-rock site condition (30-m averaged shear-wave velocity, Vs30, of 760 m/s). We also developed hazard maps that contain site amplification based on a grid of Vs30 values estimated from topographic slope. These maps take into account amplification from soils. We stress that these new maps are designed to quantify the hazard for Haiti; they do not consider all the sources of earthquake hazard that affect the Dominican Republic and therefore should not be considered as complete hazard maps for eastern Hispaniola. For example, we have not included hazard from earthquakes in the Mona Passage nor from large earthquakes on the subduction zone interface north of Puerto Rico. Furthermore, they do not capture all the earthquake hazards for eastern Cuba.

Liquefaction potential of Nile delta, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fergany, Elsayed; Omar, Khaled

2017-06-01

Understanding how sedimentary basins respond to seismic-wave energy generated by earthquake events is a significant concern for seismic-hazard estimation and risk analysis. The main goal of this study is assessing the vulnerability index, Kg, as an indicator for liquefaction potential sites in the Nile delta basin based on the microtremor measurements. Horizontal to Vertical spectral ratio analyses (HVSR) of ambient noise data, which was conducted in 2006 at 120 sites covering the Nile delta from south to north were reprocessed using Geopsy software. HVSR factors of amplification, A, and fundamental frequency, F, were calculated and Kg was estimated for each measurement. The Kg value varies widely from south toward north delta and the potential liquefaction places were estimated. The higher vulnerability indices are associated with sites located in southern part of the Nile delta and close to the branches of Nile River. The HVSR factors were correlated with geologic setting of the Nile delta and show good correlations with the sediment thickness and subsurface stratigraphic boundaries. However, we note that sites located in areas that have greatest percentage of sand also yielded relatively high Kg values with respect to sites in areas where clay is abundant. We concluded that any earthquake with ground acceleration more than 50 gal at hard rock can cause a perceived deformation of sandy sediments and liquefaction can take place in the weak zones of Kg ≥ 20. The worst potential liquefaction zones (Kg > 30) are frequently joined to the Damietta and Rosetta Nile River branches and south Delta where relatively coarser sand exists. The HVSR technique is a very sensitive tool for lithological stratigraphy variations in two dimensions and varying liquefaction susceptibility.

Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

2015-12-01

Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such findings, we make a number of suggestions for communicating hazard using maps. Most importantly, we emphasise that multiple meanings may be taken away from a map, and this may have important implications in a crisis. We propose that engaging with map audiences in a two-way dialogue in times of peace may help prevent miscommunications in the event of a crisis.

Earthquake-triggered liquefaction in Southern Siberia and surroundings: a base for predictive models and seismic hazard estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lunina, Oksana

2016-04-01

The forms and location patterns of soil liquefaction induced by earthquakes in southern Siberia, Mongolia, and northern Kazakhstan in 1950 through 2014 have been investigated, using field methods and a database of coseismic effects created as a GIS MapInfo application, with a handy input box for large data arrays. Statistical analysis of the data has revealed regional relationships between the magnitude (Ms) of an earthquake and the maximum distance of its environmental effect to the epicenter and to the causative fault (Lunina et al., 2014). Estimated limit distances to the fault for the Ms = 8.1 largest event are 130 km that is 3.5 times as short as those to the epicenter, which is 450 km. Along with this the wider of the fault the less liquefaction cases happen. 93% of them are within 40 km from the causative fault. Analysis of liquefaction locations relative to nearest faults in southern East Siberia shows the distances to be within 8 km but 69% of all cases are within 1 km. As a result, predictive models have been created for locations of seismic liquefaction, assuming a fault pattern for some parts of the Baikal rift zone. Base on our field and world data, equations have been suggested to relate the maximum sizes of liquefaction-induced clastic dikes (maximum width, visible maximum height and intensity index of clastic dikes) with Ms and local shaking intensity corresponding to the MSK-64 macroseismic intensity scale (Lunina and Gladkov, 2015). The obtained results make basis for modeling the distribution of the geohazard for the purposes of prediction and for estimating the earthquake parameters from liquefaction-induced clastic dikes. The author would like to express their gratitude to the Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for providing laboratory to carry out this research and Russian Scientific Foundation for their financial support (Grant 14-17-00007).

Single temperature liquefaction process at different operating pHs to improve ethanol production from Indian rice and corn feedstock.

PubMed

Gohel, V; Ranganathan, K; Duan, G

2017-04-21

Conventional grain ethanol manufacturing is a high-temperature energy-intensive process comprising of multiple-unit operations when combined with lower ethanol recovery results in higher production cost. In liquefaction, jet cooking accounts for significant energy cost, while strong acid or base used for pH adjustment presents a safety hazard. A need is felt for sustainable ethanol manufacturing process that is less hazardous, consumes lower energy, and operates in a low pH range of 4.50-5.50. A single temperature liquefaction (STL) process that could efficiently operate at lower liquefaction temperature over a pH range of 4.50-5.50 was developed using rice and corn feedstock. Ethanol recovery witnessed at pH 4.5, 5.0, and 5.5 are 481.2 ± 1.5, 492.4 ± 1.5, and 493.6 ± 1.5 L MT -1 rice, respectively. Similarly, ethanol recovery witnessed at pH 4.5, 5.0, and 5.5 are 404.6 ± 1.3, 413.9 ± 0.8, and 412.4 ± 1.8 L MT -1 corn, respectively. The improvement in ethanol recovery is attributed to higher starch conversion by alpha-amylase even at pH as low as 4.50. Thus, the STL process operated at pH lower than 5.20 is poised to enhance sustainability by offering dual advantage of energy as well as chemical saving.

First USGS urban seismic hazard maps predict the effects of soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Gomberg, J.S.; Schweig, E.S.; Waldron, B.A.; Tucker, K.

2006-01-01

Probabilistic and scenario urban seismic hazard maps have been produced for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee covering a six-quadrangle area of the city. The nine probabilistic maps are for peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration and for 10%, 5%, and 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Six scenario maps for these three ground motions have also been generated for both an M7.7 and M6.2 on the southwest arm of the New Madrid seismic zone ending at Marked Tree, Arkansas. All maps include the effect of local geology. Relative to the national seismic hazard maps, the effect of the thick sediments beneath Memphis is to decrease 0.2 s probabilistic ground motions by 0-30% and increase 1.0 s probabilistic ground motions by ???100%. Probabilistic peak ground accelerations remain at levels similar to the national maps, although the ground motion gradient across Shelby County is reduced and ground motions are more uniform within the county. The M7.7 scenario maps show ground motions similar to the 5%-in-50-year probabilistic maps. As an effect of local geology, both M7.7 and M6.2 scenario maps show a more uniform seismic ground-motion hazard across Shelby County than scenario maps with constant site conditions (i.e., NEHRP B/C boundary).

Mesh versus bathtub - effects of flood models on exposure analysis in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2016-04-01

In Switzerland, mainly two types of maps that indicate potential flood zones are available for flood exposure analyses: 1) Aquaprotect, a nationwide overview provided by the Federal Office for the Environment and 2) communal flood hazard maps available from the 26 cantons. The model used to produce Aquaprotect can be described as a bathtub approach or linear superposition method with three main parameters, namely the horizontal and vertical distance of a point to water features and the size of the river sub-basin. Whereas the determination of flood zones in Aquaprotect is based on a uniform, nationwide model, the communal flood hazard maps are less homogenous, as they have been elaborated either at communal or cantonal levels. Yet their basic content (i.e. indication of potential flood zones for three recurrence periods, with differentiation of at least three inundation depths) is described in national directives and the vast majority of communal flood hazard maps are based on 2D inundation simulations using meshes. Apart from the methodical differences between Aquaprotect and the communal flood hazard maps (and among different communal flood hazard maps), all of these maps include a layer with a similar recurrence period (i.e. Aquaprotect 250 years, flood hazard maps 300 years) beyond the intended protection level of installed structural systems. In our study, we compare the resulting exposure by overlaying the two types of flood maps with a complete, harmonized, and nationwide dataset of building polygons. We assess the different exposure at the national level, and also consider differences among the 26 cantons and the six biogeographically unique regions, respectively. It was observed that while the nationwide exposure rates for both types of flood maps are similar, the differences within certain cantons and biogeographical regions are remarkable. We conclude that flood maps based on bathtub models are appropriate for assessments at national levels, while maps based on 2D simulations are preferable at sub-national levels.

Data for Quaternary faults, liquefaction features, and possible tectonic features in the Central and Eastern United States, east of the Rocky Mountain Front

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crone, Anthony J.; Wheeler, Russell L.

2000-01-01

The USGS is currently leading an effort to compile published geological information on Quaternary faults, folds, and earthquake-induced liquefaction in order to develop an internally consistent database on the locations, ages, and activity rates of major earthquake-related features throughout the United States. This report is the compilation for such features in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), which for the purposes of the compilation, is defined as the region extending from the Rocky Mountain Front eastward to the Atlantic seaboard. A key objective of this national compilation is to provide a comprehensive database of Quaternary features that might generate strong ground motion and therefore, should be considered in assessing the seismic hazard throughout the country. In addition to printed versions of regional and individual state compilations, the database will be available on the World-Wide Web, where it will be readily available to everyone. The primary purpose of these compilations and the derivative database is to provide a comprehensive, uniform source of geological information that can by used to complement the other types of data that are used in seismic-hazard assessments. Within our CEUS study area, which encompasses more than 60 percent of the continuous U.S., we summarize the geological information on 69 features that are categorized into four classes (Class A, B, C, and D) based on what is known about the feature's Quaternary activity. The CEUS contains only 13 features of tectonic origin for which there is convincing evidence of Quaternary activity (Class A features). Of the remaining 56 features, 11 require further study in order to confidently define their potential as possible sources of earthquake-induced ground motion (Class B), whereas the remaining features either lack convincing geologic evidence of Quaternary tectonic faulting or have been studied carefully enough to determine that they do not pose a significant seismic hazard (Classes C and D). The correlation between historical seismicity and Quaternary faults and liquefaction features in the CEUS is generally poor, which probably reflects the long return times between successive movements on individual structures. Some Quaternary faults and liquefaction features are located in aseismic areas or where historical seismicity is sparse. These relations indicate that the record of historical seismicity does not identify all potential seismic sources in the CEUS. Furthermore, geological studies of some currently aseismic faults have shown that the faults have generated strong earthquakes in the geologically recent past. Thus, the combination of geological information and seismological data can provide better insight into potential earthquake sources and thereby, contribute to better, more comprehensive seismic-hazard assessments.

The fujairah united arab emirates (uae) (ml = 5.1) earthquake of march 11, 2002 a reminder for the immediate need to develop and implement a national hazard mitigation strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Homoud, A.

2003-04-01

On March 11, 2002, at mid nigh, the Fujairah Masafi region in the UAE was shaken by an earthquake of shallow depth and local magnitude m = 5.1 on Richter Scale. The earthquake occurred on Dibba fault in the UAE with epicenter of the earthquake at 20 km NW of Fujairha city. The focal depth was just 10 km. The earthquake was felt in most parts of the northern emirates: Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Ras Al-Khaima, and Um-Qwain. The "main shock" was followed in the following weeks by more than twenty five earthquakes with local magnitude ranging from m = 4 to m = 4.8. The location of those earthquakes was along Zagros Reverse Faulting System in the Iranian side the Arabian Gulf, opposite to the Shores of the UAE. Most of these earthquakes were shallow too and were actually felt by the people. However, there was another strong earthquake in early April 2002 in the same Masafi region with local magnitude m = 5.1 and focal depth 30 km, therefore it was not felt by the northern emirates residents. No major structural damages to buildings and lifeline systems were reported in the several cities located in the vicinity of the earthquake epicenter. The very small values of ground accelerations were not enough to test the structural integrity of tall building and major infrastructures. Future major earthquakes anticipated in the region in close vicinity of northern emirates, once they occur, and considering the noticeable local site effect of the emirates sandy soils of high water table levels, will surely put these newly constructed building into the real test. Even though there were no casualties in the March 11th event, but there was major fear as a result of the loud sound of rock rupture heard in the mountains close to Maafi, the noticeable disturbance of animals and birds minutes before the earthquake incident and during the incident, cracks in the a good number of Masafi buildings and major damages that occurred in "old" buildings of Fujairah Masafi area, the closest city to the epicenter of the earthquake. Indeed, the March 11, 2002 and "aftershocks" scared the citizens of Masafi and surrounding regions and ignited the attention of the public and government to the subject matter of earthquake hazard, specialty this earthquake came one year after the near by Indian m = 6.5 destructive Earthquake. Indeed the recent m = 6.2 June 22 destructive earthquake too that hit north west Iran, has again reminded the UAE public and government with the need to take quick and concrete measures to dtake the necessary steps to mitigate any anticipated earthquake hazard. This study reflects in some details on the following aspects related to the region and vicinity: geological and tectonic setting, seismicity, earthquake activity data base and seismic hazard assessment. Moreover, it documents the following aspects of the March 11, 2002 earthquake: tectonic, seismological, instrumental seismic data, aftershocks, strong motion recordings and response spectral and local site effect analysis, geotechnical effects and structural observations in the region affected by the earthquake. The study identifies local site ground amplification effects and liquefaction hazard potential in some parts of the UAE. Moreover, the study reflects on the coverage of the incident in the media, public and government response, state of earthquake engineering practice in the construction industry in the UAE, and the national preparedness and public awareness issues. However, it is concluded for this event that the mild damages that occurred in Masafi region were due to poor quality of construction, and lack of underestimating of the design base shear. Practical recommendations are suggested for the authorities to avoid damages in newly constructed buildings and lifelines as a result of future stronger earthquakes, in addition to recommendations on a national strategy for earthquake hazard mitigation in the UAE, which is still missing. The recommendations include the development and implementation of a design code for earthquake loading in the UAE, development of macro and micro seismic hazard maps, development of local site effect and liquefaction hazard maps, installation of a national earthquake monitoring network, assessment of the vulnerability of critical structures and life line facilities, public awareness, training of rescue teams in civil defense, etc.

Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, D.

2010-12-01

This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation of earthquake scientists and engineers. In addition to the national maps, the USGS produces more detailed urban seismic hazard maps that communities have used to prioritize retrofits and design critical infrastructure that can withstand large earthquakes. At a regional scale, the USGS and its partners in California have developed a time-dependent earthquake rupture forecast that is being used by the insurance sector, which can serve to distribute risk and foster mitigation if the right incentives are in place. What the USGS and partners are doing at the urban, regional, and national scales, the Global Earthquake Model project is seeking to do for the world. A significant challenge for engaging the public to prepare for earthquakes is making low-probability, high-consequence events real enough to merit personal action. Scenarios help by starting with the hazard posed by a specific earthquake and then exploring the fragility of the built environment, cascading failures, and the real-life consequences for the public. To generate such a complete picture takes multiple disciplines working together. Earthquake scenarios are being used both for emergency management exercises and much broader public preparedness efforts like the Great California ShakeOut, which engaged nearly 7 million people.

Seismic hazard in the South Carolina coastal plain: 2002 update of the USGS national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Mays, T.W.; ,

2005-01-01

The damaging 1886 moment magnitude ???7 Charleston, South Carolina earthquake is indicative of the moderately likely earthquake activity along this portion of the Atlantic Coast. A recurrence of such an earthquake today would have serious consequences for the nation. The national seismic hazard maps produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide a picture of the levels of seismic hazard across the nation based on the best and most current scientific information. The USGS national maps were updated in 2002 and will become part of the International Codes in 2006. In the past decade, improvements have occurred in the scientific understanding of the nature and character of earthquake activity and expected ground motions in the central and eastern U.S. The paper summarizes the new knowledge of expected earthquake locations, magnitudes, recurrence, and ground-motion decay with distance. New estimates of peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration are compared with those displayed in the 1996 national maps. The 2002 maps show increased seismic hazard in much of the coastal plain of South Carolina, but a decrease in long period (1 s and greater) hazard by up to 20% at distances of over 50 km from the Charleston earthquake zone. Although the national maps do not account for the effects of local or regional sediments, deep coastal-plain sediments can significally alter expected ground shaking, particularly at long period motions where it can be 100% higher than the national maps.

Key science issues in the central and eastern United States for the next version of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, M.D.; Mueller, C.S.

2011-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps are updated about every six years by incorporating newly vetted science on earthquakes and ground motions. The 2008 hazard maps for the central and eastern United States region (CEUS) were updated by using revised New Madrid and Charleston source models, an updated seismicity catalog and an estimate of magnitude uncertainties, a distribution of maximum magnitudes, and several new ground-motion prediction equations. The new models resulted in significant ground-motion changes at 5 Hz and 1 Hz spectral acceleration with 5% damping compared to the 2002 version of the hazard maps. The 2008 maps have now been incorporated into the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Provisions, the 2010 ASCE-7 Standard, and the 2012 International Building Code. The USGS is now planning the next update of the seismic hazard maps, which will be provided to the code committees in December 2013. Science issues that will be considered for introduction into the CEUS maps include: 1) updated recurrence models for New Madrid sources, including new geodetic models and magnitude estimates; 2) new earthquake sources and techniques considered in the 2010 model developed by the nuclear industry; 3) new NGA-East ground-motion models (currently under development); and 4) updated earthquake catalogs. We will hold a regional workshop in late 2011 or early 2012 to discuss these and other issues that will affect the seismic hazard evaluation in the CEUS.

Prospects and pitfalls of occupational hazard mapping: 'between these lines there be dragons'.

PubMed

Koehler, Kirsten A; Volckens, John

2011-10-01

Hazard data mapping is a promising new technique that can enhance the process of occupational exposure assessment and risk communication. Hazard maps have the potential to improve worker health by providing key input for the design of hazard intervention and control strategies. Hazard maps are developed with aid from direct-reading instruments, which can collect highly spatially and temporally resolved data in a relatively short period of time. However, quantifying spatial-temporal variability in the occupational environment is not a straightforward process, and our lack of understanding of how to ascertain and model spatial and temporal variability is a limiting factor in the use and interpretation of workplace hazard maps. We provide an example of how sources of and exposures to workplace hazards may be mischaracterized in a hazard map due to a lack of completeness and representativeness of collected measurement data. Based on this example, we believe that a major priority for research in this emerging area should focus on the development of a statistical framework to quantify uncertainty in spatially and temporally varying data. In conjunction with this need is one for the development of guidelines and procedures for the proper sampling, generation, and evaluation of workplace hazard maps.

Exploring local risk managers' use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes in Baden-Württemberg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellgren, S.

2013-07-01

In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address - in research as well as in practice - since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.

Evaluation of seismic design spectrum based on UHS implementing fourth-generation seismic hazard maps of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ali; Hasan, Rafiq; Pekau, Oscar A.

2016-12-01

Two recent developments have come into the forefront with reference to updating the seismic design provisions for codes: (1) publication of new seismic hazard maps for Canada by the Geological Survey of Canada, and (2) emergence of the concept of new spectral format outdating the conventional standardized spectral format. The fourth -generation seismic hazard maps are based on enriched seismic data, enhanced knowledge of regional seismicity and improved seismic hazard modeling techniques. Therefore, the new maps are more accurate and need to incorporate into the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code (CHBDC) for its next edition similar to its building counterpart National Building Code of Canada (NBCC). In fact, the code writers expressed similar intentions with comments in the commentary of CHBCD 2006. During the process of updating codes, NBCC, and AASHTO Guide Specifications for LRFD Seismic Bridge Design, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington (2009) lowered the probability level from 10 to 2% and 10 to 5%, respectively. This study has brought five sets of hazard maps corresponding to 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years developed by the GSC under investigation. To have a sound statistical inference, 389 Canadian cities are selected. This study shows the implications of the changes of new hazard maps on the design process (i.e., extent of magnification or reduction of the design forces).

Seismic hazard maps of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tanner, J.G.; Shedlock, K.M.

2004-01-01

The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard and/or economic constraints. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. We have produced a suite of seismic hazard estimates for Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. One of the preliminary maps in this suite served as the basis for the Caribbean and Central and South America portion of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHM) published in 1999, which depicted peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. Herein we present maps depicting pga and 0.2 and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) with 50%, 10%, and 2% chances of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. The seismicity catalog used in the generation of these maps adds 3 more years of data to those used to calculate the GSH Map. Different attenuation functions (consistent with those used to calculate the U.S. and Canadian maps) were used as well. These nine maps are designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a general seismic hazard framework and serving as a resource for any national or regional agency to help focus further detailed studies required for regional/local needs. The largest seismic hazard values in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. High hazard values occur in areas where shallow-to-intermediate seismicity occurs frequently. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Challenges in making a seismic hazard map for Alaska and the Aleutians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Boyd, O.S.; Mueller, C.S.; Frankel, A.D.; Freymueller, J.T.

2008-01-01

We present a summary of the data and analyses leading to the revision of the time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians. These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data, and reflect best current judgments about methodology and approach. They have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States, and will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. We present example maps for peak ground acceleration, 0.2 s spectral amplitude (SA), and 1.0 s SA at a probability level of 2% in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404). In this summary, we emphasize issues encountered in preparation of the maps that motivate or require future investigation and research.

Late Holocene liquefaction features in the Dominican Republic: A powerful tool for earthquake hazard assessment in the northeastern Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tuttle, M.P.; Prentice, C.S.; Dyer-Williams, K.; Pena, L.R.; Burr, G.

2003-01-01

Several generations of sand blows and sand dikes, indicative of significant and recurrent liquefaction, are preserved in the late Holocene alluvial deposits of the Cibao Valley in northern Dominican Republic. The Cibao Valley is structurally controlled by the Septentrional fault, an onshore section of the North American-Caribbean strike-slip plate boundary. The Septentrional fault was previously studied in the central part of the valley, where it sinistrally offsets Holocene terrace risers and soil horizons. In the eastern and western parts of the valley, the Septentrional fault is buried by Holocene alluvial deposits, making direct study of the structure difficult. Liquefaction features that formed in these Holocene deposits as a result of strong ground shaking provide a record of earthquakes in these areas. Liquefaction features in the eastern Cibao Valley indicate that at least one historic earthquake, probably the moment magnitude, M 8, 4 August 1946 event, and two to four prehistoric earthquakes of M 7 to 8 struck this area during the past 1100 yr. The prehistoric earthquakes appear to cluster in time and could have resulted from rupture of the central and eastern sections of the Septentrional fault circa A.D. 1200. Liquefaction features in the western Cibao Valley indicate that one historic earthquake, probably the M 8, 7 May 1842 event, and two prehistoric earthquakes of M 7-8 struck this area during the past 1600 yr. Our findings suggest that rupture of the Septentrional fault circa A.D. 1200 may have extended beyond the central Cibao Valley and generated an earthquake of M 8. Additional information regarding the age and size distribution of liquefaction features is needed to reconstruct the prehistoric earthquake history of Hispaniola and to define the long-term behavior and earthquake potential of faults associated with the North American-Caribbean plate boundary.

Building Better Volcanic Hazard Maps Through Scientific and Stakeholder Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Calder, E.

2015-12-01

All across the world information about natural hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunami is shared and communicated using maps that show which locations are potentially exposed to hazards of varying intensities. Unlike earthquakes and tsunami, which typically produce one dominant hazardous phenomenon (ground shaking and inundation, respectively) volcanic eruptions can produce a wide variety of phenomena that range from near-vent (e.g. pyroclastic flows, ground shaking) to distal (e.g. volcanic ash, inundation via tsunami), and that vary in intensity depending on the type and location of the volcano. This complexity poses challenges in depicting volcanic hazard on a map, and to date there has been no consistent approach, with a wide range of hazard maps produced and little evaluation of their relative efficacy. Moreover, in traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map that is then presented to stakeholders. This one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication does not necessarily translate into effective hazard education, or, as tragically demonstrated by Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia in 1985, its use in risk mitigation by civil authorities. Furthermore, messages taken away from a hazard map can be strongly influenced by its visual design. Thus, hazard maps are more likely to be useful, usable and used if relevant stakeholders are engaged during the hazard map process to ensure a) the map is designed in a relevant way and b) the map takes into account how users interpret and read different map features and designs. The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk has recently launched a Hazard Mapping Working Group to collate some of these experiences in graphically depicting volcanic hazard from around the world, including Latin America and the Caribbean, with the aim of preparing some Considerations for Producing Volcanic Hazard Maps that may help map makers in the future.

Ground motion models used in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.

2015-01-01

The National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) are an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States. This paper compares hazard using the new suite of ground motion models (GMMs) relative to hazard using the suite of GMMs applied in the previous version of the maps. The new source characterization models are used for both cases. A previous paper (Rezaeian et al. 2014) discussed the five NGA-West2 GMMs used for shallow crustal earthquakes in the Western United States (WUS), which are also summarized here. Our focus in this paper is on GMMs for earthquakes in stable continental regions in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), as well as subduction interface and deep intraslab earthquakes. We consider building code hazard levels for peak ground acceleration (PGA), 0.2-s, and 1.0-s spectral accelerations (SAs) on uniform firm-rock site conditions. The GMM modifications in the updated version of the maps created changes in hazard within 5% to 20% in WUS; decreases within 5% to 20% in CEUS; changes within 5% to 15% for subduction interface earthquakes; and changes involving decreases of up to 50% and increases of up to 30% for deep intraslab earthquakes for most U.S. sites. These modifications were combined with changes resulting from modifications in the source characterization models to obtain the new hazard maps.

Utah Flooding Hazard: Raising Public Awareness through the Creation of Multidisciplinary Web-Based Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castleton, J.; Erickson, B.; Bowman, S. D.; Unger, C. D.

2014-12-01

The Utah Geological Survey's (UGS) Geologic Hazards Program has partnered with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to create geologically derived web-based flood hazard maps. Flooding in Utah communities has historically been one of the most damaging geologic hazards. The most serious floods in Utah have generally occurred in the Great Salt Lake basin, particularly in the Weber River drainage on the western slopes of the Wasatch Range, in areas of high population density. With a growing population of 2.9 million, the state of Utah is motivated to raise awareness about the potential for flooding. The process of increasing community resiliency to flooding begins with identification and characterization of flood hazards. Many small communities in areas experiencing rapid growth have not been mapped completely by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM). Existing FIRM maps typically only consider drainage areas that are greater than one square mile in determining flood zones and do not incorporate geologic data, such as the presence of young, geologically active alluvial fans that indicate a high potential for debris flows and sheet flooding. Our new flood hazard mapping combines and expands on FEMA data by incorporating mapping derived from 1:24,000-scale UGS geologic maps, LiDAR data, digital elevation models, and historical aerial photography. Our flood hazard maps are intended to supplement the FIRM maps to provide local governments and the public with additional flood hazard information so they may make informed decisions, ultimately reducing the risk to life and property from flooding hazards. Flooding information must be widely available and easily accessed. One of the most effective ways to inform the public is through web-based maps. Web-based flood hazard maps will not only supply the public with the flood information they need, but also provides a platform to add additional geologic hazards to an easily accessible format.

A Framework for the Validation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Maps Using Strong Ground Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bydlon, S. A.; Beroza, G. C.

2015-12-01

Recent debate on the efficacy of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), and the utility of hazard maps (i.e. Stein et al., 2011; Hanks et al., 2012), has prompted a need for validation of such maps using recorded strong ground motion data. Unfortunately, strong motion records are limited spatially and temporally relative to the area and time windows hazard maps encompass. We develop a framework to test the predictive powers of PSHA maps that is flexible with respect to a map's specified probability of exceedance and time window, and the strong motion receiver coverage. Using a combination of recorded and interpolated strong motion records produced through the ShakeMap environment, we compile a record of ground motion intensity measures for California from 2002-present. We use this information to perform an area-based test of California PSHA maps inspired by the work of Ward (1995). Though this framework is flexible in that it can be applied to seismically active areas where ShakeMap-like ground shaking interpolations have or can be produced, this testing procedure is limited by the relatively short lifetime of strong motion recordings and by the desire to only test with data collected after the development of the PSHA map under scrutiny. To account for this, we use the assumption that PSHA maps are time independent to adapt the testing procedure for periods of recorded data shorter than the lifetime of a map. We note that accuracy of this testing procedure will only improve as more data is collected, or as the time-horizon of interest is reduced, as has been proposed for maps of areas experiencing induced seismicity. We believe that this procedure can be used to determine whether PSHA maps are accurately portraying seismic hazard and whether discrepancies are localized or systemic.

Probabilistic, Seismically-Induced Landslide Hazard Mapping of Western Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, M. J.; Sharifi Mood, M.; Gillins, D. T.; Mahalingam, R.

2015-12-01

Earthquake-induced landslides can generate significant damage within urban communities by damaging structures, obstructing lifeline connection routes and utilities, generating various environmental impacts, and possibly resulting in loss of life. Reliable hazard and risk maps are important to assist agencies in efficiently allocating and managing limited resources to prepare for such events. This research presents a new methodology in order to communicate site-specific landslide hazard assessments in a large-scale, regional map. Implementation of the proposed methodology results in seismic-induced landslide hazard maps that depict the probabilities of exceeding landslide displacement thresholds (e.g. 0.1, 0.3, 1.0 and 10 meters). These maps integrate a variety of data sources including: recent landslide inventories, LIDAR and photogrammetric topographic data, geology map, mapped NEHRP site classifications based on available shear wave velocity data in each geologic unit, and USGS probabilistic seismic hazard curves. Soil strength estimates were obtained by evaluating slopes present along landslide scarps and deposits for major geologic units. Code was then developed to integrate these layers to perform a rigid, sliding block analysis to determine the amount and associated probabilities of displacement based on each bin of peak ground acceleration in the seismic hazard curve at each pixel. The methodology was applied to western Oregon, which contains weak, weathered, and often wet soils at steep slopes. Such conditions have a high landslide hazard even without seismic events. A series of landslide hazard maps highlighting the probabilities of exceeding the aforementioned thresholds were generated for the study area. These output maps were then utilized in a performance based design framework enabling them to be analyzed in conjunction with other hazards for fully probabilistic-based hazard evaluation and risk assessment. a) School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA

Volcanic Hazard Maps; the results and progress made by the IAVCEI Hazard Map working group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calder, Eliza; Lindsay, Jan; Wright, Heather

2017-04-01

The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk set up a working group on Hazard Maps in 2014. Since then, the group has led or co-organised three major workshops, and organized two thematic conference sessions. In particular we have initiated a series of workshops, named the "State of the Hazard Map" which we plan to continue (the first was held at COV8 (State of the Hazard Map 1) and second at COV9 (State of the Hazard Map 2) and the third will be held at IAVCEI General Assembly in Portland. The broad aim of these activities is to work towards an IAVCEI-endorsed considerations or guidelines document for volcanic hazard map generation. The workshops have brought together people from around the world working on volcanic hazard maps, and have had four primary objectives: 1) to review (and collect further data on) the diverse variety of methods and rationales currently used to develop maps; 2) to openly discuss approaches and experiences regarding how hazard maps are interpreted and used by different groups; 3) to discuss and prepare the IAVCEI Guidelines document; and lastly, 4) Discuss options for finalizing, publishing and disseminating the Guidelines document (e.g. wiki, report, open-source publication). This presentation will provide an update of the results and outcomes of those initiatives. This includes brief outcomes of the reviews undertaken, a survey that has been constructed in order to gather additional data, the planned structure for the guidelines documents and a summary of the key findings to date. The majority of the participants of these activities so far have come from volcano observatories or geological surveys, as these institutions commonly have primary responsibility for making operational hazard map. It is important however that others in the scientific community that work on quantification of volcanic hazard contribute to these guidelines. We therefore invite interested parties to become involved.

Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, Graham S.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Thomas M.; Procter, Jonathan N.; Scott, Bradley J.; Keys, Harry J.; Jolly, Gill E.; Wardman, Johnny B.; Cronin, Shane J.; McBride, Sara K.

2014-10-01

New Zealand's Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro Volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these supported science communication during the crisis, particularly in terms of hazard map development. The most significant proximal impact was damage from pyroclastic surges and ballistics to the popular and economically-important Tongariro Alpine Crossing track. The only hazard to affect the medial impact zone was a few mms of ashfall with minor impacts. Field testing indicated that the Te Maari ash had extremely low resistivity when wetted, implying a very high potential to cause disruption to nationally-important power transmission networks via the mechanism of insulator flashover. This was not observed, presumably due to insufficient ash accumulation on insulators. Virtually no impacts from distal ashfall were reported. Post-event analysis of PM10 data demonstrates the additional value of regional air quality monitoring networks in quantifying population exposure to airborne respirable ash. While the eruption was minor, it generated a high level of public interest and a demand for information on volcanic hazards and impacts from emergency managers, the public, critical infrastructure managers, health officials, and the agriculture sector. Meeting this demand fully taxed available resources. We present here aspects of the New Zealand experience which may have wider applicability in moving towards improved integration of hazard impact information, mapping, and communication. These include wide use of a wiki technical clearinghouse and email listservs, a focus on multi-agency consistent messages, and a recently developed environment of collaboration and alignment of both research funding and technical science advice. Hazard maps were integral to science communication during the crisis, but there is limited international best practice information available on hazard maps as communication devices, as most volcanic hazard mapping literature is concerned with defining hazard zones. We propose that hazard maps are only as good as the communications framework and inter-agency relationships in which they are embedded, and we document in detail the crisis hazard map development process. We distinguish crisis hazard maps from background hazard maps and ashfall prediction maps, illustrating the complementary nature of these three distinct communication mechanisms. We highlight issues that arose and implications for the development of future maps.

Quantifying the uncertainty in site amplification modeling and its effects on site-specific seismic-hazard estimation in the upper Mississippi embayment and adjacent areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2006-01-01

The Mississippi embayment, located in the central United States, and its thick deposits of sediments (over 1 km in places) have a large effect on earthquake ground motions. Several previous studies have addressed how these thick sediments might modify probabilistic seismic-hazard maps. The high seismic hazard associated with the New Madrid seismic zone makes it particularly important to quantify the uncertainty in modeling site amplification to better represent earthquake hazard in seismic-hazard maps. The methodology of the Memphis urban seismic-hazard-mapping project (Cramer et al., 2004) is combined with the reference profile approach of Toro and Silva (2001) to better estimate seismic hazard in the Mississippi embayment. Improvements over previous approaches include using the 2002 national seismic-hazard model, fully probabilistic hazard calculations, calibration of site amplification with improved nonlinear soil-response estimates, and estimates of uncertainty. Comparisons are made with the results of several previous studies, and estimates of uncertainty inherent in site-amplification modeling for the upper Mississippi embayment are developed. I present new seismic-hazard maps for the upper Mississippi embayment with the effects of site geology incorporating these uncertainties.

New ShakeMaps for Georgia Resulting from Collaboration with EMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.; Alania, V.

2015-12-01

Correct assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard and risks maps are first step for advance planning and action to reduce seismic risk. Seismic hazard maps for Georgia were calculated based on modern approach that was developed in the frame of EMME (Earthquake Modl for Middle east region) project. EMME was one of GEM's successful endeavors at regional level. With EMME and GEM assistance, regional models were analyzed to identify the information and additional work needed for the preparation national hazard models. Probabilistic seismic hazard map (PSH) provides the critical bases for improved building code and construction. The most serious deficiency in PSH assessment for the territory of Georgia is the lack of high-quality ground motion data. Due to this an initial hybrid empirical ground motion model is developed for PGA and SA at selected periods. An application of these coefficients for ground motion models have been used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Obtained results of seismic hazard maps show evidence that there were gaps in seismic hazard assessment and the present normative seismic hazard map needed a careful recalculation.

Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gori, Paula L.

1993-01-01

INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and engineering studies. Translated earthquake hazard maps have also been developed to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to various causes of damage such as ground shaking, surface rupturing, and liquefaction. The implementation of earthquake hazard reduction plans are now under way in various communities in Utah. The results of a survey presented in this paper indicate that technical public officials (planners and building officials) have an understanding of the earthquake hazards and how to mitigate the risks. Although the survey shows that the general public has a slightly lower concern about the potential for economic losses, they recognize the potential problems and can support a number of earthquake mitigation measures. The study suggests that many community groups along the Wasatch Front, including volunteer groups, business groups, and elected and appointed officials, are ready for action-oriented educational programs. These programs could lead to a significant reduction in the risks associated with earthquake hazards. A DATA BASE DESIGNED FOR URBAN SEISMIC HAZARDS STUDIES: A computerized data base has been designed for use in urban seismic hazards studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The design includes file structures for 16 linked data sets, which contain geological, geophysical, and seismological data used in preparing relative ground response maps of large urban areas. The data base is organized along relational data base principles. A prototype urban hazards data base has been created for evaluation in two urban areas currently under investigation: the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The initial implementation of the urban hazards data base was accomplished on a microcomputer using dBASE III Plus software and transferred to minicomputers and a work station. A MAPPING OF GROUND-SHAKING INTENSITIES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH: This paper documents the development of maps showing a

Seismic-hazard maps and time histories for the commonwealth of Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

The ground-motion hazard maps and time histories for three earthquake scenarios, expected earthquakes, probable earthquakes, and maximum credible earthquakes on the free surface in hard rock (shear-wave velocity >1,500 m/s), were derived using the de...

Quaternary tectonic faulting in the Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, R.L.

2006-01-01

Paleoseismological study of geologic features thought to result from Quaternary tectonic faulting can characterize the frequencies and sizes of large prehistoric and historical earthquakes, thereby improving the accuracy and precision of seismic-hazard assessments. Greater accuracy and precision can reduce the likelihood of both underprotection and unnecessary design and construction costs. Published studies proposed Quaternary tectonic faulting at 31 faults, folds, seismic zones, and fields of earthquake-induced liquefaction phenomena in the Appalachian Mountains and Coastal Plain. Of the 31 features, seven are of known origin. Four of the seven have nontectonic origins and the other three features are liquefaction fields caused by moderate to large historical and Holocene earthquakes in coastal South Carolina, including Charleston; the Central Virginia Seismic Zone; and the Newbury, Massachusetts, area. However, the causal faults of the three liquefaction fields remain unclear. Charleston has the highest hazard because of large Holocene earthquakes in that area, but the hazard is highly uncertain because the earthquakes are uncertainly located. Of the 31 features, the remaining 24 are of uncertain origin. They require additional work before they can be clearly attributed either to Quaternary tectonic faulting or to nontectonic causes. Of these 24, 14 features, most of them faults, have little or no published geologic evidence of Quaternary tectonic faulting that could indicate the likely occurrence of earthquakes larger than those observed historically. Three more features of the 24 were suggested to have had Quaternary tectonic faulting, but paleoseismological and other studies of them found no evidence of large prehistoric earthquakes. The final seven features of uncertain origin require further examination because all seven are in or near urban areas. They are the Moodus Seismic Zone (Hartford, Connecticut), Dobbs Ferry fault zone and Mosholu fault (New York City), Lancaster Seismic Zone and the epicenter of the shallow Cacoosing Valley earthquake (Lancaster and Reading, Pennsylvania), Kingston fault (central New Jersey between New York and Philadelphia), and Everona fault-Mountain Run fault zone (Washington, D.C., and Arlington and Alexandria, Virginia). ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Environmental Hazard Maps on Risk Beliefs, Emotion, and Health-related Behavioral Intentions

PubMed Central

Severtson, Dolores

2013-01-01

To test a theoretical explanation of how attributes of mapped environmental health hazards influence health-related behavioral intentions and how beliefs and emotion mediate the influences of attributes, 24 maps were developed that varied by four attributes of a residential drinking water hazard: level, proximity, prevalence, and density. In a factorial design, student participants (N=446) answered questions for a subset of maps. Hazard level and proximity had the largest influences on intentions to test water and mitigate exposure. Belief in the problem’s seriousness mediated attributes’ influence on intention to test drinking water, and perceived susceptibility mediated the influence of attributes on intention to mitigate risk. Maps with carefully illustrated attributes of hazards may promote appropriate health-related risk beliefs, intentions, and behavior. PMID:23533022

Flooding Hazard Maps of Different Land Uses in Subsidence Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yongjun; Chang, Hsiangkuan; Tan, Yihchi

2017-04-01

This study aims on flooding hazard maps of different land uses in the subsidence area of southern Taiwan. Those areas are low-lying due to subsidence resulting from over pumping ground water for aquaculture. As a result, the flooding due to storm surges and extreme rainfall are frequent in this area and are expected more frequently in the future. The main land uses there include: residence, fruit trees, and aquaculture. The hazard maps of the three land uses are investigated. The factors affecting hazards of different land uses are listed below. As for residence, flooding depth, duration of flooding, and rising rate of water surface level are factors affecting its degree of hazard. High flooding depth, long duration of flooding, and fast rising rate of water surface make residents harder to evacuate. As for fruit trees, flooding depth and duration of flooding affects its hazard most due to the root hypoxia. As for aquaculture, flooding depth affects its hazard most because the high flooding depth may cause the fish flush out the fishing ponds. An overland flow model is used for simulations of hydraulic parameters for factors such as flooding depth, rising rate of water surface level and duration of flooding. As above-mentioned factors, the hazard maps of different land uses can be made and high hazardous are can also be delineated in the subsidence areas.

United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey?s maps of earthquake shaking hazards provide information essential to creating and updating the seismic design provisions of building codes and insurance rates used in the United States. Periodic revisions of these maps incorporate the results of new research. Buildings, bridges, highways, and utilities built to meet modern seismic design provisions are better able to withstand earthquakes, not only saving lives but also enabling critical activities to continue with less disruption. These maps can also help people assess the hazard to their homes or places of work and can also inform insurance rates.

Quaternary Geology and Liquefaction Susceptibility, San Francisco, California 1:100,000 Quadrangle: A Digital Database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knudsen, Keith L.; Noller, Jay S.; Sowers, Janet M.; Lettis, William R.

1997-01-01

This Open-File report is a digital geologic map database. This pamphlet serves to introduce and describe the digital data. There are no paper maps included in the Open-File report. The report does include, however, PostScript plot files containing the images of the geologic map sheets with explanations, as well as the accompanying text describing the geology of the area. For those interested in a paper plot of information contained in the database or in obtaining the PostScript plot files, please see the section entitled 'For Those Who Aren't Familiar With Digital Geologic Map Databases' below. This digital map database, compiled from previously unpublished data, and new mapping by the authors, represents the general distribution of surficial deposits in the San Francisco bay region. Together with the accompanying text file (sf_geo.txt or sf_geo.pdf), it provides current information on Quaternary geology and liquefaction susceptibility of the San Francisco, California, 1:100,000 quadrangle. The database delineates map units that are identified by general age and lithology following the stratigraphic nomenclature of the U.S. Geological Survey. The scale of the source maps limits the spatial resolution (scale) of the database to 1:100,000 or smaller. The content and character of the database, as well as three methods of obtaining the database, are described below.

Application of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system to ground subsidence hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Inhye; Choi, Jaewon; Jin Lee, Moung; Lee, Saro

2012-11-01

We constructed hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok City, Korea, using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, and ground subsidence maps. An attribute database was also constructed from field investigations and reports on existing ground subsidence areas at the study site. Five major factors causing ground subsidence were extracted: (1) depth of drift; (2) distance from drift; (3) slope gradient; (4) geology; and (5) land use. The adaptive ANFIS model with different types of membership functions (MFs) was then applied for ground subsidence hazard mapping in the study area. Two ground subsidence hazard maps were prepared using the different MFs. Finally, the resulting ground subsidence hazard maps were validated using the ground subsidence test data which were not used for training the ANFIS. The validation results showed 95.12% accuracy using the generalized bell-shaped MF model and 94.94% accuracy using the Sigmoidal2 MF model. These accuracy results show that an ANFIS can be an effective tool in ground subsidence hazard mapping. Analysis of ground subsidence with the ANFIS model suggests that quantitative analysis of ground subsidence near AUCMs is possible.

The Cellular Automata for modelling of spreading of lava flow on the earth surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarna, A.

2012-12-01

Volcanic risk assessment is a very important scientific, political and economic issue in densely populated areas close to active volcanoes. Development of effective tools for early prediction of a potential volcanic hazard and management of crises are paramount. However, to this date volcanic hazard maps represent the most appropriate way to illustrate the geographical area that can potentially be affected by a volcanic event. Volcanic hazard maps are usually produced by mapping out old volcanic deposits, however dynamic lava flow simulation gaining popularity and can give crucial information to corroborate other methodologies. The methodology which is used here for the generation of volcanic hazard maps is based on numerical simulation of eruptive processes by the principle of Cellular Automata (CA). The python script is integrated into ArcToolbox in ArcMap (ESRI) and the user can select several input and output parameters which influence surface morphology, size and shape of the flow, flow thickness, flow velocity and length of lava flows. Once the input parameters are selected, the software computes and generates hazard maps on the fly. The results can be exported to Google Maps (.klm format) to visualize the results of the computation. For validation of the simulation code are used data from a real lava flow. Comparison of the simulation results with real lava flows mapped out from satellite images will be presented.

Issues in testing the new national seismic hazard model for Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Peresan, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Brooks, E. M.; Spencer, B. D.

2016-12-01

It is important to bear in mind that we know little about how earthquake hazard maps actually describe the shaking that will actually occur in the future, and have no agreed way of assessing how well a map performed in the past, and, thus, whether one map performs better than another. Moreover, we should not forget that different maps can be useful for different end users, who may have different cost-and-benefit strategies. Thus, regardless of the specific tests we chose to use, the adopted testing approach should have several key features: We should assess map performance using all the available instrumental, paleo seismology, and historical intensity data. Instrumental data alone span a period much too short to capture the largest earthquakes - and thus strongest shaking - expected from most faults. We should investigate what causes systematic misfit, if any, between the longest record we have - historical intensity data available for the Italian territory from 217 B.C. to 2002 A.D. - and a given hazard map. We should compare how seismic hazard maps developed over time. How do the most recent maps for Italy compare to earlier ones? It is important to understand local divergences that show how the models are developing to the most recent one. The temporal succession of maps is important: we have to learn from previous errors. We should use the many different tests that have been proposed. All are worth trying, because different metrics of performance show different aspects of how a hazard map performs and can be used. We should compare other maps to the ones we are testing. Maps can be made using a wide variety of assumptions, which will lead to different predicted shaking. It is possible that maps derived by other approaches may perform better. Although Italian current codes are based on probabilistic maps, it is important from both a scientific and societal perspective to look at all options including deterministic scenario based ones. Comparing what works better, according to different performance measures, will give valuable insight into key map parameters and assumptions. We may well find that different maps perform better in different applications.

Liquefaction under drained condition, from the lab to reality ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, Cécile; Aharonov, Einat; Stojanova, Menka; Toussaint, Renaud

2015-04-01

Liquefaction constitutes a significant natural hazard in relation to earthquakes and landslides. This effect can cause buildings to tilt or sink into the soil, mud-volcanoes, floatation of buried objects, long-runout landslides, etc. In this work we present a new understanding regarding the mechanism by which buildings sink and tilt during liquefaction caused by earthquakes. Conventional understanding of liquefaction explains most observed cases as occurring in an undrained, under-compacted, layer of sandy soil saturated with water [1]: According to that understanding, the under compacted sandy layer has the tendency to compact when a load is applied. In our case the load comes from ground shaking during an earthquake. When the soil compacts, the fluid pore pressure rises. Because in undrained conditions the fluid cannot flow out, the pore pressure builds up. The weight of buildings is in this case transferred from the grains of the soil to the pore water. The soil loses its rigidity and it flows like a liquid. From this model scientists made theoretical and empirical laws for geotechnical use and buildings construction. Despite the success of this conventional model in many cases, liquefied soils were also observed under drained conditions, and in previously compacted soils, which doesn't agree with the assumption of the model quoted above. One of the famous liquefaction events is the Kobe port destruction during the 1995 earthquake. A simple calculation of the Deborah number following Goren et al ([2][3]) shows that the undrained constraint was not met below the Kobe port during the 1995 earthquake. We propose another model, of liquefaction in drained granular media. According to our model the mere presence of water in granular media is enough to cause liquefaction during an earthquake, provided that the water reaches close to the surface. Our computations are based on the buoyancy force, and we take into account the static fluid pressure only. For small horizontal shaking our model predicts that the soil remains rigid. Under stronger accelerations, some of the particles, which constitute the medium, slide past each other, and the medium slowly rearranges. Yet, in this regime of shaking, the shaking is insufficient to cause the building to slide. The building sinks simply due to hydrostatic considerations, and since it is a static object in a dynamically rearranging medium. This is the case we call liquefaction. Eventually, for even stronger accelerations, both the particles and the building can slide and we predict convective movement. To test this model we run numerical simulations (granular dynamics DEM algorithm) and laboratory experiments. The numerical experiments do not include pore pressure, and only simulate buoyancy effects of water. The controlling parameters are the amplitude and frequency of the shaking, and the water level. With a saturated medium, experiments and simulations display three different behaviors: rigid, liquefaction, and convection, in agreement with our theoretical model. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) is the decisive parameter. It is important to note that for dry media and for a case when the building is fully submerged underwater, both in experiments and in simulations, the liquefaction effect disappears. Based on our work we suggest that elevated pore pressure conditions are not necessary for inducing liquefaction, and that liquefaction can occur under well drained and highly compacted soils, in situations previously considered to be safe from liquefaction. Références [1] Chi-Yuen Wang and Michael Manga. Earthquakes and Water, volume 114. Springer Verlag, 2010. [2] L. Goren, E. Aharonov, D. Sparks, and R. Toussaint. Pore pressure evolution in deforming granu- lar material : A general formulation and the infinitely stiff approximation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115(B9), Sep 2010. [3] Liran Goren, Einat Aharonov, David Sparks, and Renaud Toussaint. The mechanical coupling of fluid-filled granular material under shear. Pure and applied geophysics, 168(12) :2289-2323, 2011.

The influence of environmental hazard maps on risk beliefs, emotion, and health-related behavioral intentions.

PubMed

Severtson, Dolores J

2013-08-01

To test a theoretical explanation of how attributes of mapped environmental health hazards influence health-related behavioral intentions and how beliefs and emotion mediate the influences of attributes, 24 maps were developed that varied by four attributes of a residential drinking water hazard: level, proximity, prevalence, and density. In a factorial design, student participants (N = 446) answered questions about a subset of maps. Hazard level and proximity had the largest influences on intentions to test water and mitigate exposure. Belief in the problem's seriousness mediated attributes' influence on intention to test drinking water, and perceived susceptibility mediated the influence of attributes on intention to mitigate risk. Maps with carefully illustrated attributes of hazards may promote appropriate health-related risk beliefs, intentions, and behavior. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Research, methodology, and applications of probabilistic seismic-hazard mapping of the Central and Eastern United States; minutes of a workshop on June 13-14, 2000, at Saint Louis University

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Russell L.; Perkins, David M.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating and revising its 1996 national seismic-hazard maps for release in 2001. Part of this process is the convening of four regional workshops with earth scientists and other users of the maps. The second of these workshops was sponsored by the USGS and the Mid-America Earthquake Center, and was hosted by Saint Louis University on June 13-14, 2000.The workshop concentrated on the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS) east of the Rocky Mountains. The tasks of the workshop were to (1) evaluate new research findings that are relevant to seismic hazard mapping, (2) discuss modifications in the inputs and methodology used in the national maps, (3) discuss concerns by engineers and other users about the scientific input to the maps and the use of the hazard maps in building codes, and (4) identify needed research in the CEUS that can improve the seismic hazard maps and reduce their uncertainties. These minutes summarize the workshop discussions. This is not a transcript; some individual remarks and short discussions of side issues and logistics were omitted. Named speakers were sent a draft of the minutes with a request for corrections of any errors in remarks attributed to them. Nine people returned corrections, amplifications, or approvals of their remarks as reported. The rest of this document consists of the meeting agenda, discussion summaries, and a list of the 60 attendees.

Incorporating natural hazard assessments into municipal master-plans; case-studies from Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Oded

2010-05-01

The active Dead Sea Rift (DSR) runs along the length of Israel, making the entire state susceptible to earthquake-related hazards. Current building codes generally acknowledge seismic hazards and direct engineers towards earthquake-resistant structures. However, hazard mapping on a scale fit for municipal/governmental planning is subject to local initiative and is currently not mandatory as seems necessary. In the following, a few cases of seismic-hazard evaluation made by the Geological Survey of Israel are presented, emphasizing the reasons for their initiation and the way results were incorporated (or not). The first case is a seismic hazard qualitative micro-zonation invited by the municipality of Jerusalem as part of a new master plan. This work resulted in maps (1:50,000; GIS format) identifying areas prone to (1) amplification of seismic shaking due to site characteristics (outcrops of soft rocks or steep topography) and (2) sites with earthquake induced landslide (EILS) hazard. Results were validated using reports from the 1927, M=6.2 earthquake that originated along the DSR about 30km east of Jerusalem. Although the hazard maps were accepted by municipal authorities, practical use by geotechnical engineers working within the frame of the new master-plan was not significant. The main reason for that is apparently a difference of opinion between the city-engineers responsible for implementing the new master-plan and the geologists responsible of the hazard evaluation. The second case involves evaluation of EILS hazard for two towns located further north along the DSR, Zefat and Tiberias. Both were heavily damaged more than once by strong earthquakes in past centuries. Work was carried out as part of a governmental seismic-hazard reduction program. The results include maps (1:10,000 scales) of sites with high EILS hazard identified within city limits. Maps (in GIS format) were sent to city engineers with reports explaining the methods and results. As far as we know, widespread implementation of the maps within municipal master plans never came about, and there was no open discussion between city engineers and the Geological Survey. The main reasons apparently are (1) a lack, until recently, of mandatory building codes requiring incorporation of EILS hazard; (2) budget priorities; (3) failure to involve municipality personnel in planning and executing the EILS hazard evaluation. These cases demonstrate that for seismic hazard data to be incorporated and implemented within municipal master-plans there needs to be (1) active involvement of municipal officials and engineers from the early planning stages of the evaluation campaign, and (2) a-priori dedication of funds towards implementation of evaluation results.

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Liquefaction evidence for the strength of ground motions resulting from Late Holocene Cascadia subduction earthquakes, with emphasis on the event of 1700 A.D.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obermeier, S.F.; Dickenson, S.E.

2000-01-01

During the past decade, paleoseismic studies done by many researchers in the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest have shown that regional downdropping and subsequent tsunami inundation occurred in response to a major earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone. This earthquake occurred almost certainly in 1700 A.D., and is believed by many to have been of M 8.5-9 or perhaps larger. In order to characterize the severity of ground motions from this earthquake, we report on a field search and analysis of seismically induced liquefaction features. The search was conducted chiefly along the banks of islands in the lowermost Columbia River of Oregon and Washington and in stream banks along smaller rivers throughout southwestern Washington. To a lesser extent, the investigation included rivers in central Oregon. Numerous small- to moderate-sized liquefaction features from the earthquake of 1700 A.D. were found in some regions, but there was a notable lack of liquefaction features in others. The regional distribution of liquefaction features is evaluated as a function of geologic and geotechnical factors in different field settings near the coast. Our use of widely different field settings, each in which we independently assess the strength of shaking and arrive at the same conclusion, enhances the credibility of our interpretations. Our regional inventory of liquefaction features and preliminary geotechnical analysis of liquefaction potential provide substantial evidence for only moderate levels of ground shaking in coastal Washington and Oregon during the subduction earthquake of 1700 A.D. Additionally, it appears that a similar conclusion can be reached for an earlier subduction earthquake that occurred within the past 1100 years, which also has been characterized by others as being M 8 or greater. On the basis of more limited data for older events collected in our regional study, it appears that seismic shaking has been no stronger throughout Holocene time. Our interpreted levels of shaking are considerably lower than current estimates in the technical literature that use theoretical and statistical models to predict ground motions of subduction earthquakes in the Cascadia region. Because of the influence of estimated ground motions from Cascadia subduction-zone earthquakes on seismic hazard evaluations, more paleoliquefaction and geotechnical field studies are needed to definitively bracket the strength of shaking. With further work, it should be possible to extend the record of seismic shaking through much of Holocene time in large portions of Washington and Oregon.

Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

2017-12-01

Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015 Sabah earthquake offers a case in point.

MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

2016-04-01

In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process has been applied also on the scientific output of MED-SUV WP6, as a tool for the short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. For the Campi Flegrei volcanic system, the expected tool has been implemented to compute hazard curves, hazard maps and probability maps for tephra fallout on a target grid covering the Campania region. This allows the end user to visualize the hazard from tephra fallout and its uncertainty. The response of end-users to such products will help to determine to what extent end-users understand them, find them useful, and match their requirements. In order to involve also Etna area in WP6 TASK 3 activities, a questionnaire developed in the VUELCO project (Volcanic Unrest in Europe and Latin America) has been proposed to Sicily Civil Protection officials having decision-making responsibility in case of volcanic unrest at Etna and Stromboli, to survey their opinions and requirements also in case of volcanic unrest

Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

2015-12-01

Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation's traditional territory, are situated on highly thaw sensitive permafrost. These projects demonstrate how physical and socio-economic factors can be integrated in assessments of permafrost vulnerability to thaw, thus providing tangible, useable results that reflect community priorities and support local decision making.

2008 United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Maps by incorporating new seismic, geologic, and geodetic information on earthquake rates and associated ground shaking. The 2008 versions supersede those released in 1996 and 2002. These maps are the basis for seismic design provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, earthquake loss studies, retrofit priorities, and land-use planning. Their use in design of buildings, bridges, highways, and critical infrastructure allows structures to better withstand earthquake shaking, saving lives and reducing disruption to critical activities following a damaging event. The maps also help engineers avoid costs from over-design for unlikely levels of ground motion.

Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

2018-01-01

For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

Climate change induced lanslide hazard mapping over Greece- A case study in Pelion Mountain (SE Thessaly, Central Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelitsa, Varvara; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Anagnwstopoulou, Christina

2015-04-01

Landslides, as a major type of geological hazard, represent one of the natural events that occur most frequently worldwide after hydro-meteorological events. Landslides occur when the stability of a slope changes due to a number of factors, such as the steep terrain and prolonged precipitation. Identification of landslides and compilation of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk maps are very important issues for the public authorities providing substantial information regarding, the strategic planning and management of the land-use. Although landslides cannot be predicted accurately, many attempts have been made to compile these maps. Important factors for the the compilation of reliable maps are the quality and the amount of available data and the selection of the best method for the analysis. Numerous studies and publications providing landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk maps, for different regions of Greece, have completed up to now. Their common characteristic is that they are static, taking into account parameters like geology, mean annual precipitaion, slope, aspect, distance from roads, faults and drainage network, soil capability, land use etc., without introducing the dimension of time. The current study focuses on the Pelion Mountain, which is located at the southeastern part of Thessaly in Central Greece; aiming to compile "dynamic" susceptibility and hazard maps depending on climate changes. For this purpose, past and future precipipation data from regional climate models (RCMs) datasets are introduced as input parameters for the compilation of "dynamic" landslide hazard maps. Moreover, land motion mapping data produced by Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) are used for the validation of the landslide occurrence during the period from June 1992 to December 2003 and as a result for the calibration of the mapping procedure. The PSI data can be applied at a regional scale as support for land motion mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known ground motion event. The PSI data were produced within the framework of the Terrafirma project. Terrafirma is a pan- European ground motion information service focused on seismic risk, flood defense and costal lowland subsidence,inactive mines and hydrogeological risks. The produced maps provided substantial information for the land use planning and the civil protection of an area presenting excelent natural beauty and numerous preservable trtaditional villages. Keywords: landslide, psi technique, regional climate models, lanslide susceptibility maps, Greece

Fusiform-Rust-Hazard Maps for Loblolly and Slash Pines

Treesearch

Robert L. Anderson; Thomas C. McCartney; Noel D. Cost; Hugh Devine; Martin Botkin

1988-01-01

Rust-hazard saps made from Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data show that fusiform rust on slash pine is most common in north-central Florida, in southeastern Georgia, and in areas north of slash pine's natural range. On loblolly pine, the disease is most common in central and southeastern Georgia and in portions of South Carolina. These maps show the general...

A fluvial and pluvial probabilistic flood hazard analysis for Can Tho city, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martinez, Oriol; Thi Chinh, Do; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2014-05-01

Can Tho city is the largest city and the economic heart of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Due to its economic importance and envisaged development goals the city grew rapidly in population size and extend over the last two decades. Large parts of the city are located in flood prone areas, and also the central parts of the city recently experienced an increasing number of flood events, both of fluvial and pluvial nature. As the economic power and asset values are constantly increasing, this poses a considerable risk for the city. The the aim of this study is to perform a flood hazard analysis considering both fluvial and pluvial floods and to derive probabilistic flood hazard maps. This requires in a first step an understanding of the typical flood mechanisms. Fluvial floods are triggered by a coincidence of high water levels during the annual flood period in the Mekong Delta with high tidal levels, which cause in combination short term inundations in Can Tho. Pluvial floods are triggered by typical tropical convective rain storms during the monsoon season. These two flood pathways are essentially independent in its sources and can thus be treated in the hazard analysis accordingly. For the fluvial hazard analysis we propose a bivariate frequency analysis of the Mekong flood characteristics, the annual maximum flood discharge Q and the annual flood volume V at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta, the gauging station Kratie. This defines probabilities of exceedance of different Q-V pairs, which are transferred into synthetic flood hydrographs. The synthetic hydrographs are routed through a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of the entire Mekong Delta in order to provide boundary conditions for a detailed hazard mapping of Can Tho. This downscaling step is necessary, because the huge complexity of the river and channel network does not allow for a proper definition of boundary conditions for Can Tho city by gauge data alone. In addition the available gauge data around Can Tho are too short for a meaningful frequency analysis. The detailed hazard mapping is performed by a 2D hydrodynamic model for Can Tho city. As the scenarios are derived in a Monte-Carlo framework, the final flood hazard maps are probabilistic, i.e. show the median flood hazard along with uncertainty estimates for each defined level of probabilities of exceedance. For the pluvial flood hazard a frequency analysis of the hourly rain gauge data of Can Tho is performed implementing a peak-over-threshold procedure. Based on this frequency analysis synthetic rains storms are generated in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same probabilities of exceedance as in the fluvial flood hazard analysis. Probabilistic flood hazard maps were then generated with the same 2D hydrodynamic model for the city. In a last step the fluvial and pluvial scenarios are combined assuming independence of the events. These scenarios were also transferred into hazard maps by the 2D hydrodynamic model finally yielding combined fluvial-pluvial probabilistic flood hazard maps for Can Tho. The derived set of maps may be used for an improved city planning or a flood risk analysis.

Geophysical investigation of liquefaction and surface ruptures at selected sites in Oklahoma post the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee, OK earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolawole, F.; Ismail, A. M.; Pickens, C. M.; Beckendorff, D.; Mayle, M. V.; Goussi, J. F.; Nyalugwe, V.; Aghayan, A.; Tim, S.; Atekwana, E. A.

2016-12-01

To date, the Mw 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, earthquake on September 3, 2016 produced the largest moment release in the central and eastern United States, linked to saline waste water injection into the underlying formations. This earthquake occurred in a region of complex fault interactions, and typical of most of the earthquake activity in Oklahoma the earthquake ruptured a previously unknown left-lateral strike-slip fault striking 109°. Moreover, unlike the 2011 Mw 5.7 Prague, Oklahoma earthquake, the Pawnee earthquake produced surface deformation including fractures and liquefaction features. In this study, we use high resolution electrical resistivity, ground penetrating radar (GPR) and surface fracture mapping to image the zones of surface disruption. Our objective was to report some of the near-surface deformations that are associated with the recent earthquake and compare them with deep structures. We selected two sites for this study. We observed linear fractures and liquefaction at the first site which is 5 km away from the earthquake epicenter, while the second site, 7.5 km away from the epicenter, showed mostly curvilinear fractures. The resistivity and GPR sections showed indication of saturated sediments at about 2 m - 5 m below ground surface and settlement-sag structure within the liquefaction dominated area, and less saturated sediments in areas dominated by fractures only. GPS mapping of fractures at the first site revealed a pattern of en-echelon fractures oriented 93°-116°, sub-parallel to the orientation of the slip direction of the earthquake, while the fractures at the second site trend along the bank of a river meander. We infer that the liquefaction was enhanced by the occurrence of loose, wet, fluvial deposits of the Arkansas River flood plain and adequate near-surface pore pressure at the liquefaction dominated areas. Our results suggest the greater influence of surface morphological heterogeneity on the ruptures farther away from the epicenter, while the relationship between the deep structures, displacement kinematics and the linear fractures closer to the epicenter are unclear. We conclude that high resolution geophysical imaging can be used as a rapid response tool for evaluating areas susceptible to failure during earthquakes and can help improve hazard mitigation measures.

Sand-Venting in the M5.7 Earthquake 3 Jan 2017 and in the Much Larger Penultimate Liquefaction Event with their Sedimentary Setting in an Upstream Valley of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta: Implications for Earthquake Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McHugh, C.; Seeber, L.; Akhter, S. H.; Schenck, R. J.; Steckler, M. S.; Kumar, B.; Rajapara, H.; Shovon, A. K.; Singhvi, A. K.

2017-12-01

The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD) is near the cusp between Sunda subduction and Himalayan collision. Abundant water and fertile sediment support a huge population, but large earthquakes along these broad convergence boundaries have repeatedly caused widespread liquefaction and destruction. The 3 Jan 2017 M5.7 32 km deep (USGS) Ambassa (Tripura, India) earthquake accommodated down-dip extension of the Indian slab where it subducts eastward from the GBD below Burma. This is typical for current seismicity below and east of the GBD, although much larger and shallower thrust earthquakes are anticipated based on GPS. Generally, reported effects in the broad mesoseismal area seem consistent with hypocenter depth and the assigned max MMI V (USGS), but we found surprisingly intense damage and many liquefaction sites in the alluvial northern portion of the Dolai valley in Bangladesh, 36 km NNW of the epicenter. We trenched three liquefaction sites and completed a profile of ten 50m deep wells across the 5 km wide alluvial valley. Fluvial channel sands alternate with overbank silt/clay and organic clay layers suggesting frequent changes in river course, consistent with rapid post glacial sea-level rise, transgression, high-stand aggradation and differential tectonic uplift. The Dolai is one of several short low-relief synclinal valleys in the fold belt draining northward into the Sylhet Basin (NE part of the GBD) where they meet westward drainage richer in sediment. Rapid aggradation by this cross-drainage may have a damming effect and account for the current lacustrine/marshy conditions characteristic of the northern end of these synclinal valleys. Organic rich beds derived from such conditions could encourage overpressure and raise liquefaction potential. The 1.5 m deep trenches revealed fractures and clastic dykes <15 mm wide that fed the 2017 sand vents. Their orientations were N-S, subparallel to the valley and nearby river-banks and at high angle to the fold axes. Buried 1.1m below the surface we found similarly oriented but much wider paleo-sand dykes and a lenticular apron of vented sand marking the paleosurface. Similar sand dikes and burial depths in another trench 230 m away suggest these paleo-liquefaction features record the same event. Ongoing OSL and radiocarbon ages will verify timing and implications.

Geographic deaggregation of seismic hazard in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, S.; Frankel, A.

2001-01-01

The seismic hazard calculations for the 1996 national seismic hazard maps have been geographically deaggregated to assist in the understanding of the relative contributions of sources. These deaggregations are exhibited as maps with vertical bars whose heights are proportional to the contribution that each geographical cell makes to the ground-motion exceedance hazard. Bar colors correspond to average source magnitudes. We also extend the deaggregation analysis reported in Harmsen et al. (1999) to the western conterminous United States. In contrast to the central and eastern United States (CEUS); the influence of specific faults or characteristic events can be clearly identified. Geographic deaggregation for 0.2-sec and 1.0-sec pseudo spectral acceleration (SA) is performed for 10% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr (475-yr mean return period) and 2% PE in 50 yr (2475-yr mean return period) for four western U.S. cities, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle, and for three central and eastern U.S. cities, Atlanta, Boston, and Saint Louis. In general, as the PE is lowered, the sources of hazard closer to the site dominate. Larger, more distant earthquakes contribute more significantly to hazard for 1.0-sec SA than for 0.2-sec SA. Additional maps of geographically deaggregated seismic hazard are available on the Internet for 120 cities in the conterminous United States (http://geohazards. cr.usgs.gov/eq/) for 1-sec SA and for 0.2-sec SA with a 2% PE in 50 yr. Examination of these maps of hazard contributions enables the investigator to determine the distance and azimuth to predominant sources, and their magnitudes. This information can be used to generate scenario earthquakes and corresponding time histories for seismic design and retrofit. Where fault density is lower than deaggregation cell dimensions, we can identify specific faults that contribute significantly to the seismic hazard at a given site. Detailed fault information enables investigators to include rupture information such as source directivity, radiation pattern, and basin-edge effects into their scenario earthquakes used in engineering analyses.

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

Water Induced Hazard Mapping in Nepal: A Case Study of East Rapti River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, N.

2010-12-01

This paper presents illustration on typical water induced hazard mapping of East Rapti River Basin under the DWIDP, GON. The basin covers an area of 2398 sq km. The methodology includes making of base map of water induced disaster in the basin. Landslide hazard maps were prepared by SINMAP approach. Debris flow hazard maps were prepared by considering geology, slope, and saturation. Flood hazard maps were prepared by using two approaches: HEC-RAS and Satellite Imagery Interpretation. The composite water-induced hazard maps were produced by compiling the hazards rendered by landslide, debris flow, and flood. The monsoon average rainfall in the basin is 1907 mm whereas maximum 24 hours precipitation is 456.8 mm. The peak discharge of the Rapati River in the year of 1993 at station was 1220 cu m/sec. This discharge nearly corresponds to the discharge of 100-year return period. The landslides, floods, and debris flows triggered by the heavy rain of July 1993 claimed 265 lives, affected 148516 people, and damaged 1500 houses in the basin. The field investigation and integrated GIS interpretation showed that the very high and high landslide hazard zones collectively cover 38.38% and debris flow hazard zone constitutes 6.58%. High flood hazard zone occupies 4.28% area of the watershed. Mitigation measures are recommendated according to Integrated Watershed Management Approach under which the non-structural and structural measures are proposed. The non-structural measures includes: disaster management training, formulation of evacuation system (arrangement of information plan about disaster), agriculture management practices, protection of water sources, slope protections and removal of excessive bed load from the river channel. Similarly, structural measures such as dike, spur, rehabilitation of existing preventive measures and river training at some locations are recommendated. The major factors that have contributed to induce high incidences of various types of mass movements and inundation in the basin are rock and soil properties, prolonged and high-intensity rainfall, steep topography and various anthropogenic factors.

Risk-targeted maps for Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacareanu, Radu; Pavel, Florin; Craciun, Ionut; Coliba, Veronica; Arion, Cristian; Aldea, Alexandru; Neagu, Cristian

2018-03-01

Romania has one of the highest seismic hazard levels in Europe. The seismic hazard is due to a combination of local crustal seismic sources, situated mainly in the western part of the country and the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source, which can be found at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains. Recent seismic hazard studies have shown that there are consistent differences between the slopes of the seismic hazard curves for sites situated in the fore-arc and back-arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Consequently, in this study we extend this finding to the evaluation of the probability of collapse of buildings and finally to the development of uniform risk-targeted maps. The main advantage of uniform risk approach is that the target probability of collapse will be uniform throughout the country. Finally, the results obtained are discussed in the light of a recent study with the same focus performed at European level using the hazard data from SHARE project. The analyses performed in this study have pointed out to a dominant influence of the quantile of peak ground acceleration used for anchoring the fragility function. This parameter basically alters the shape of the risk-targeted maps shifting the areas which have higher collapse probabilities from eastern Romania to western Romania, as its exceedance probability increases. Consequently, a uniform procedure for deriving risk-targeted maps appears as more than necessary.

Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

A methodology for physically based rockfall hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosta, G. B.; Agliardi, F.

Rockfall hazard assessment is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. The mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope instabilities with minimal runout. Rockfall hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". This paper is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of 3-D numerical modelling on a topography described by a DEM. Maps portraying the maximum frequency of passages, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, are easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. Different methods are suggested and discussed for rockfall hazard mapping at a regional and local scale both along linear features or within exposed areas. An objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing both a positional "Rockfall Hazard Index" and a "Rockfall Hazard Vector" is presented. The opportunity of combining different parameters in the 3-D matrixes has been evaluated to better express the relative increase in hazard. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is preliminarily discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

2010-05-01

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility. Information about public networks is also recorded in order to give an overall idea of the built environment condition of the island. The vulnerability assessment of the technical systems describes the potential damages that could stress systems like electricity supply, water distribution, communication networks or transport systems. These damages can also be described as function disruption of the system. The important aspect is not only the physical capacity of a system to resist, but also its capacity to continue functioning. The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. Six different hazard scenarios have been identified based on a detailed stratigraphic work. The urbanization on Vulcano took place in the 1980s with no real planning and its population mostly subsists on tourism. Our preliminary results show that Vulcano is not characterized by a great variability of architectural typologies and construction materials. Three main types of buildings are present (masonry with concrete frame, masonry with manufactured stone units, masonry with hollow clay bricks) and no statistically significant trends were found between physical and morphological characteristics. The recent signs of volcanic unrest combined with a complex vulnerability of the island due to an uncontrolled urban development and a significant seasonal variation of the exposed population in summer months result in a high volcanic risk. As a result, Vulcano represents the ideal environment to test a multi-hazard based risk model and to study the transition between micro (building) and macro (urban environment) scale of analysis, which is still an unexplored field in the study of volcanic risk. Different levels of vulnerability need to be analyzed in order to increase the level of preparedness, plan a potential evacuation, manage a potential volcanic crisis and assess the best mitigation measures to put in place and reduce the volcanic risk.

A stereo-vision hazard-detection algorithm to increase planetary lander autonomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woicke, Svenja; Mooij, Erwin

2016-05-01

For future landings on any celestial body, increasing the lander autonomy as well as decreasing risk are primary objectives. Both risk reduction and an increase in autonomy can be achieved by including hazard detection and avoidance in the guidance, navigation, and control loop. One of the main challenges in hazard detection and avoidance is the reconstruction of accurate elevation models, as well as slope and roughness maps. Multiple methods for acquiring the inputs for hazard maps are available. The main distinction can be made between active and passive methods. Passive methods (cameras) have budgetary advantages compared to active sensors (radar, light detection and ranging). However, it is necessary to proof that these methods deliver sufficiently good maps. Therefore, this paper discusses hazard detection using stereo vision. To facilitate a successful landing not more than 1% wrong detections (hazards that are not identified) are allowed. Based on a sensitivity analysis it was found that using a stereo set-up at a baseline of ≤ 2 m is feasible at altitudes of ≤ 200 m defining false positives of less than 1%. It was thus shown that stereo-based hazard detection is an effective means to decrease the landing risk and increase the lander autonomy. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm is a promising candidate for future landers.

Methodologies For A Physically Based Rockfall Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliardi, F.; Crosta, G. B.; Guzzetti, F.; Marian, M.

Rockfall hazard assessment is an important land planning tool in alpine areas, where settlements progressively expand across rockfall prone areas, rising the vulnerability of the elements at risk, the worth of potential losses and the restoration costs. Nev- ertheless, hazard definition is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. In addition, the high mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope insta- bilities for which runout is minimal. When coping with rockfalls, hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". The local occurrence probability must derive from the combination of the triggering probability (related to the geomechanical susceptibility of rock masses to fail) and the transit or impact probability at a given location (related to the motion of falling blocks). The intensity (or magnitude) of a rockfall is a complex function of mass, velocity and fly height of involved blocks that can be defined in many different ways depending on the adopted physical description and "destructiveness" criterion. This work is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of numerical modelling performed by an original 3D rockfall simulation program. This is based on a kinematic algorithm and allows the spatially distributed simulation of rockfall motions on a three-dimensional topography described by a DTM. The code provides raster maps portraying the max- imum frequency of transit, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. The results of some three dimensional rockfall models, performed at both regional and lo- cal scale in areas where rockfall related problems are well known, have been used to assess rockfall hazard, by adopting an objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing a positional "hazard index". Different hazard maps have been ob- tained combining and classifying variables in different ways. The performance of the different hazard maps has been evaluated on the basis of past rockfall events and com- pared to the results of existing methodologies. The sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

How well should probabilistic seismic hazard maps work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanneste, K.; Stein, S.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2016-12-01

Recent large earthquakes that gave rise to shaking much stronger than shown in earthquake hazard maps have stimulated discussion about how well these maps forecast future shaking. These discussions have brought home the fact that although the maps are designed to achieve certain goals, we know little about how well they actually perform. As for any other forecast, this question involves verification and validation. Verification involves assessing how well the algorithm used to produce hazard maps implements the conceptual PSHA model ("have we built the model right?"). Validation asks how well the model forecasts the shaking that actually occurs ("have we built the right model?"). We explore the verification issue by simulating the shaking history of an area with assumed distribution of earthquakes, frequency-magnitude relation, temporal occurrence model, and ground-motion prediction equation. We compare the "observed" shaking at many sites over time to that predicted by a hazard map generated for the same set of parameters. PSHA predicts that the fraction of sites at which shaking will exceed that mapped is p = 1 - exp(t/T), where t is the duration of observations and T is the map's return period. This implies that shaking in large earthquakes is typically greater than shown on hazard maps, as has occurred in a number of cases. A large number of simulated earthquake histories yield distributions of shaking consistent with this forecast, with a scatter about this value that decreases as t/T increases. The median results are somewhat lower than predicted for small values of t/T and approach the predicted value for larger values of t/T. Hence, the algorithm appears to be internally consistent and can be regarded as verified for this set of simulations. Validation is more complicated because a real observed earthquake history can yield a fractional exceedance significantly higher or lower than that predicted while still being consistent with the hazard map in question. As a result, given that in the real world we have only a single sample, it is hard to assess whether a misfit between a map and observations arises by chance or reflects a biased map.

Seismic hazard evaluation of the Oman India pipeline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, K.W.; Thenhaus, P.C.; Mullee, J.E.

1996-12-31

The proposed Oman India pipeline will traverse approximately 1,135 km of the northern Arabian Sea floor and adjacent continental shelves at depths of over 3 km on its route from Ra`s al Jifan, Oman, to Rapar Gadhwali, India. The western part of the route crosses active faults that form the transform boundary between the Arabian and Indian tectonic plates. The eastern terminus of the route lies in the vicinity of the great (M {approximately} 8) 1829 Kutch, India earthquake. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was used to estimate the values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with return periods of 200,more » 500 and 1,000 years at selected locations along the pipeline route and the submarine Indus Canyon -- a possible source of large turbidity flows. The results defined the ground-shaking hazard along the pipeline route and Indus Canyon for evaluation of risks to the pipeline from potential earthquake-induced geologic hazards such as liquefaction, slope instability, and turbidity flows. 44 refs.« less

78 FR 62344 - Sabine Pass Liquefaction Expansion, LLC, Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC, and Sabine Pass LNG, L.P...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-18

.... CP13-553-000] Sabine Pass Liquefaction Expansion, LLC, Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC, and Sabine Pass... 30, 2013, Sabine Pass Liquefaction Expansion, LLC, Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC, and Sabine Pass LNG, L.P. (collectively referred to as Sabine Pass) filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission...

Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates incorporating site effects - An example from Indiana, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hasse, J.S.; Park, C.H.; Nowack, R.L.; Hill, J.R.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published probabilistic earthquake hazard maps for the United States based on current knowledge of past earthquake activity and geological constraints on earthquake potential. These maps for the central and eastern United States assume standard site conditions with Swave velocities of 760 m/s in the top 30 m. For urban and infrastructure planning and long-term budgeting, the public is interested in similar probabilistic seismic hazard maps that take into account near-surface geological materials. We have implemented a probabilistic method for incorporating site effects into the USGS seismic hazard analysis that takes into account the first-order effects of the surface geologic conditions. The thicknesses of sediments, which play a large role in amplification, were derived from a P-wave refraction database with over 13, 000 profiles, and a preliminary geology-based velocity model was constructed from available information on S-wave velocities. An interesting feature of the preliminary hazard maps incorporating site effects is the approximate factor of two increases in the 1-Hz spectral acceleration with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for parts of the greater Indianapolis metropolitan region and surrounding parts of central Indiana. This effect is primarily due to the relatively thick sequence of sediments infilling ancient bedrock topography that has been deposited since the Pleistocene Epoch. As expected, the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional systems of the Wabash and Ohio Rivers produce additional amplification in the southwestern part of Indiana. Ground motions decrease, as would be expected, toward the bedrock units in south-central Indiana, where motions are significantly lower than the values on the USGS maps.

Implementation of NGA-West2 ground motion models in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Frankel, Arthur D.

2014-01-01

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) have been an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States for the past several decades. These maps present earthquake ground shaking intensities at specified probabilities of being exceeded over a 50-year time period. The previous version of the NSHMs was developed in 2008; during 2012 and 2013, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey have been updating the maps based on their assessment of the “best available science,” resulting in the 2014 NSHMs. The update includes modifications to the seismic source models and the ground motion models (GMMs) for sites across the conterminous United States. This paper focuses on updates in the Western United States (WUS) due to the use of new GMMs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA-West2) project. Individual GMMs, their weighted combination, and their impact on the hazard maps relative to 2008 are discussed. In general, the combined effects of lower medians and increased standard deviations in the new GMMs have caused only small changes, within 5–20%, in the probabilistic ground motions for most sites across the WUS compared to the 2008 NSHMs.

Seismic hazard along a crude oil pipeline in the event of an 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, H.H.M.; Chen, C.H.S.

1990-04-16

An assessment of the seismic hazard that exists along the major crude oil pipeline running through the New Madrid seismic zone from southeastern Louisiana to Patoka, Illinois is examined in the report. An 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake with moment magnitude 8.2 is assumed to occur at three locations where large historical earthquakes have occurred. Six pipeline crossings of the major rivers in West Tennessee are chosen as the sites for hazard evaluation because of the liquefaction potential at these sites. A seismologically-based model is used to predict the bedrock accelerations. Uncertainties in three model parameters, i.e., stress parameter, cutoffmore » frequency, and strong-motion duration are included in the analysis. Each parameter is represented by three typical values. From the combination of these typical values, a total of 27 earthquake time histories can be generated for each selected site due to an 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake occurring at a postulated seismic source.« less

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Briggs, Richard; Wesson, Robert L.; Petersen, Mark D.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

Plasma electrolytic liquefaction of cellulosic biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dingliang, TANG; Xianhui, ZHANG; Si-ze, YANG

2018-04-01

In this paper, the rapid liquefaction of a corncob was achieved by plasma electrolysis, providing a new method for cellulosic biomass liquefaction. The liquefaction rate of the corncob was 95% after 5 min with polyethylene glycol and glycerol as the liquefying agent. The experiments not only showed that H+ ions catalyzed the liquefaction of the corncob, but also that using accelerated H+ ions, which were accelerated by an electric field, could effectively improve the liquefaction efficiency. There was an obvious discharge phenomenon, in which the generated radicals efficiently heated the solution and liquefied the biomass, in the process of plasma electrolytic liquefaction. Finally, the optimum parameters of the corncob liquefaction were obtained by experimentation, and the liquefaction products were analyzed.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulargia, Francesco; Stark, Philip B.; Geller, Robert J.

2017-03-01

Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria.

New seismic hazard maps for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, C.; Frankel, A.; Petersen, M.; Leyendecker, E.

2010-01-01

The probabilistic methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is applied to a new seismic hazard assessment for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Modeled seismic sources include gridded historical seismicity, subduction-interface and strike-slip faults with known slip rates, and two broad zones of crustal extension with seismicity rates constrained by GPS geodesy. We use attenuation relations from western North American and worldwide data, as well as a Caribbean-specific relation. Results are presented as maps of peak ground acceleration and 0.2- and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration for 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years (return periods of about 2,500 and 500 years, respectively). This paper describes the hazard model and maps that were balloted by the Building Seismic Safety Council and recommended for the 2003 NEHRP Provisions and the 2006 International Building Code. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

2014 Update of the Pacific Northwest portion of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Chen, Rui; Petersen, Mark; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Sherrod, Brian

2015-01-01

Several aspects of the earthquake characterization were changed for the Pacific Northwest portion of the 2014 update of the national seismic hazard maps, reflecting recent scientific findings. New logic trees were developed for the recurrence parameters of M8-9 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and for the eastern edge of their rupture zones. These logic trees reflect recent findings of additional M8 CSZ earthquakes using offshore deposits of turbidity flows and onshore tsunami deposits and subsidence. These M8 earthquakes each rupture a portion of the CSZ and occur in the time periods between M9 earthquakes that have an average recurrence interval of about 500 years. The maximum magnitude was increased for deep intraslab earthquakes. An areal source zone to account for the possibility of deep earthquakes under western Oregon was expanded. The western portion of the Tacoma fault was added to the hazard maps.

Seismic hazard in the Nation's breadbasket

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; Haller, Kathleen; Luco, Nicolas; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Using hazard maps to identify and eliminate workplace hazards: a union-led health and safety training program.

PubMed

Anderson, Joe; Collins, Michele; Devlin, John; Renner, Paul

2012-01-01

The Institute for Sustainable Work and Environment and the Utility Workers Union of America worked with a professional evaluator to design, implement, and evaluate the results of a union-led system of safety-based hazard identification program that trained workers to use hazard maps to identify workplace hazards and target them for elimination. The evaluation documented program implementation and impact using data collected from both qualitative interviews and an on-line survey from worker trainers, plant managers, and health and safety staff. Managers and workers reported that not only were many dangerous hazards eliminated as a result of hazard mapping, some of which were long-standing, difficult-to-resolve issues, but the evaluation also documented improved communication between union members and management that both workers and managers agreed resulted in better, more sustainable hazard elimination.

Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

2014-05-01

Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some appropriate uses of global scale hazard maps and explore how this new approach can be invaluable in areas of the world where flood hazard and risk have not previously been assessed.

Liquefaction, flow, and associated ground failure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Youd, T. Leslie

1973-01-01

Ambiguities in the use of the term liquefaction and in defining the relation between liquefaction and ground failure have led to encumbered communication between workers in various fields and between specialists in the same field, and the possibility that evaluations of liquefaction potential could be misinterpreted or misapplied. Explicit definitions of liquefaction and related concepts are proposed herein. These definitions, based on observed laboratory behavior, are then used to clarify the relation between liquefaction and ground failure. Soil liquefaction is defined as the transformation of a granular material from a solid into a liquefied state as a consequence of increased pore-water pressures. This definition avoids confusion between liquefaction and possible flow-failure conditions after liquefaction. Flow-failure conditions are divided into two types: (1) unlimited flow if pore-pressure reductions caused by dilatancy during flow deformation are not sufficient to solidify the material and thus arrest flow, and (2) limited flow if they are sufficient to solidify the material after a finite deformation. After liquefaction in the field, unlimited flow commonly leads to flow landslides, whereas limited flow leads at most to lateral-spreading landslides. Quick-condition failures such as loss of bearing capacity form a third type of ground failure associated with liquefaction.

New version of 1 km global river flood hazard maps for the next generation of Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Bierkens, Marc

2017-04-01

The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer, launched in 2015, is an open-access and free-of-charge web-based interactive platform which assesses and visualises current and future projections of river flood impacts across the globe. One of the key components in the Analyzer is a set of river flood inundation hazard maps derived from the global hydrological model simulation of PCR-GLOBWB. For the current version of the Analyzer, accessible on http://floods.wri.org/#/, the early generation of PCR-GLOBWB 1.0 was used and simulated at 30 arc-minute ( 50 km at the equator) resolution. In this presentation, we will show the new version of these hazard maps. This new version is based on the latest version of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 (https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model, Sutanudjaja et al., 2016, doi:10.5281/zenodo.60764) simulated at 5 arc-minute ( 10 km at the equator) resolution. The model simulates daily hydrological and water resource fluxes and storages, including the simulation of overbank volume that ends up on the floodplain (if flooding occurs). The simulation was performed for the present day situation (from 1960) and future climate projections (until 2099) using the climate forcing created in the ISI-MIP project. From the simulated flood inundation volume time series, we then extract annual maxima for each cell, and fit these maxima to a Gumbel extreme value distribution. This allows us to derive flood volume maps of any hazard magnitude (ranging from 2-year to 1000-year flood events) and for any time period (e.g. 1960-1999, 2010-2049, 2030-2069, and 2060-2099). The derived flood volumes (at 5 arc-minute resolution) are then spread over the high resolution terrain model using an updated GLOFRIS downscaling module (Winsemius et al., 2013, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013). The updated version performs a volume spreading sequentially from more upstream basins to downstream basins, hence enabling a better inclusion of smaller streams, and takes into account spreading of water over diverging deltaic regions. This results in a set of high resolution hazard maps of flood inundation depth at 30 arc-second ( 1 km at the equator) resolution. Together with many other updates and new features, the resulting flood hazard maps will be used in the next generation of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer.

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Holland, Austin A.; Anderson, John G.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after further consideration of the reliability and scientific acceptability of each alternative input model. Forecasting the seismic hazard from induced earthquakes is fundamentally different from forecasting the seismic hazard for natural, tectonic earthquakes. This is because the spatio-temporal patterns of induced earthquakes are reliant on economic forces and public policy decisions regarding extraction and injection of fluids. As such, the rates of induced earthquakes are inherently variable and nonstationary. Therefore, we only make maps based on an annual rate of exceedance rather than the 50-year rates calculated for previous U.S. Geological Survey hazard maps.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analysing spatial data at a municipal scale.

Back analysis of Swiss flood danger map to define local flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choffet, Marc; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Leroi, Eric; Mayis, Arnaud

2010-05-01

The flood hazard maps for the entire Switzerland will be available at the end of 2011. Furthermore, the Swiss territory has been covered by aerial laser scanning (ALS) providing high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). This paper describes the development of a method for analyzing the local flood hazard based on Swiss hazard maps and HR-DEM. In their original state, Swiss hazard maps are constructed on the basis of an aggregation of information, a matrix intensity, and frequency. The degree of danger represented by the yellow, blue and red zones gives no information on the water level at each point of the territory. The developed method is based on a superposition of the danger map with the HR-DEM to determine the water level in a hazard area. To perform this method, (1) a triangulation is based on the intersection of the hazard map with the HR-DEM. It uses the limits of area where information is contrain. The hazard map perimeter and the boundaries of hazard areas give information on the widest possible overflow in case of flooding. It is also possible to associate it with a return period. (2) Based on these areas and the difference with the DEM, it is possible to calibrate the highest flood level and the extract water levels for the entire area. This analysis of existing documents opens up interesting perspectives for understanding how infrastructures are threatened by flood hazard by predicting water levels and potential damages to buildings while proposing remedial measures. Indeed, this method allows estimating the water level at each point of a building in case of flooding. It is designed to provide spatial information on water height levels; this offers a different approach of buildings in danger zones. Indeed, it is possible to discern several elements, such as areas of water accumulation involving longer flood duration, possible structural damages to buildings due to high hydrostatic pressure, determination of a local hazard, or the display of water levels in 3D.

Modifications to risk-targeted seismic design maps for subduction and near-fault hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas; Raghunandan, Meera; Champion, C.; Haukaas, Terje

2015-01-01

ASCE 7-10 introduced new seismic design maps that define risk-targeted ground motions such that buildings designed according to these maps will have 1% chance of collapse in 50 years. These maps were developed by iterative risk calculation, wherein a generic building collapse fragility curve is convolved with the U.S. Geological Survey hazard curve until target risk criteria are met. Recent research shows that this current approach may be unconservative at locations where the tectonic environment is much different than that used to develop the generic fragility curve. This study illustrates how risk-targeted ground motions at selected sites would change if generic building fragility curve and hazard assessment were modified to account for seismic risk from subduction earthquakes and near-fault pulses. The paper also explores the difficulties in implementing these changes.

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2016-04-01

Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition, the flexibility of NDSHA allows for generation of ground shaking maps at specified long-term return times, which may permit a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps in terms of average rates of exceedance for specified time windows. The comparison of NDSHA and PSHA maps, particularly for very long recurrence times, may indicate to what extent probabilistic ground shaking estimates are consistent with those from physical models of seismic waves propagation. A systematic comparison over the territory of Italy is carried out exploiting the uniqueness of the Italian earthquake catalogue, a data set covering more than a millennium (a time interval about ten times longer than that available in most of the regions worldwide) with a satisfactory completeness level for M>5, which warrants the results of analysis. By analysing in some detail seismicity in the Vrancea region, we show that well constrained macroseismic field information for individual earthquakes may provide useful information about the reliability of ground shaking estimates. Finally, in order to generalise observations, the comparative analysis is extended to further regions where both standard NDSHA and PSHA maps are available (e.g. State of Gujarat, India). The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with other national scale probabilistic maps, all obtained by PSHA, are considered for this comparative analysis.

The use of Near-surface Geophysics in Evaluating and Assessing Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellerin, L.

2007-12-01

The list of natural hazards that transform the physical environmental is extensive: earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, volcanoes, lahars, landslides and debris flows, avalanches, karst/cavern collapse, heavy-metal contamination, permafrost, liquefaction, and magnetic storms. Because these events or conditions can have significant negative impact on health and infrastructure, the need for knowledge about and education of natural hazards is important. Near-surface geophysics can contribute in significant ways to both the knowledge base and wider understanding of these hazards. The discipline encompasses a wide range of methodologies, some of which are described below. A post-tsunami helicopter electromagnetic (EM) survey along the coasts of Aceh, northern Sumatra was used to discriminate between fresh-water and saltwater aquifers., saltwater intrusion occurred close to the coast as a result of the tsunami and deep saltwater occurrences particularly around 30 m depth were mapped up to several kilometers inland. Based on the survey results recommendations were made to locate shallow hand-dug wells and medium depth (60m) water wells. Utilizing airborne EM and magnetic measurements, a detailed assessment of the internal distribution of altered zones within an active volcano; Mount Rainier (NW USA) showed that alteration is much more restricted than had been inferred from surficial exposures alone. The study also suggested that the collapse of fresh, unaltered portions of the volcano is possible, and no flank of the volcano can be considered immune from lahars during eruption. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has been used worldwide in a variety of applications from geotechnical investigations related to geologic hazards. These include assessment of transportation infrastructure, which maybe be damaged due to a natural hazard, study of the movement of rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps, and search and recovery of avalanche victims. Permafrost is widespread in polar areas and cold mountain terrain. GPR, electrical resistivity and EM methods have been used successfully to map permafrost and massive ground ice. The stability of these materials has impact on building and development within these regions. Mass movements in lowland permafrost terrain, which have implications for climate change, are being monitoring with thermal borehole measurements. Whether in times of flood or draught, understanding our watersheds is an important use of near surface geophysics. Satellite-based remote sensing methods are used to efficiently obtain soil moisture measurements over large regions. Ground-based conductivity meters are used to map soil types that play a fundamental role affecting the pattern of stream flow response. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is used to directly measure surface deformation, which can be related to subsurface hydrological conditions, aseismic deformation or landslides. Resolution of fine as 2mm/year can be obtained from satellite-based measurements. This level of resolutions aids in seismic risk assessment and allows the extent of landslides to be mapped and monitored efficiently. A series of national probabilistic seismic shaking hazard maps are being produced by the US Geological Survey using gravity, magnetic and seismic data in addition to other information. They can be used as input for many policy decisions on building codes and land use, and to estimate the probabilities of strong earthquakes, detailed maps of shaking amplification and susceptibility to liquefaction and landslides, and planning scenarios of large urban earthquakes.

Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanisch, Jörg

A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

Incorporating Community Knowledge to Lahar Hazard Maps: Canton Buenos Aires Case Study, at Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, J. V.; Martinez-Hackert, B.; Polio, C.; Gutierrez, E.

2015-12-01

Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano is an active composite volcano located in the Apaneca Volcanic Field located in western part of El Salvador, Central America. The volcano is surrounded by rural communities in its proximal areas and the second (Santa Ana, 13 km) and fourth (Sonsosante, 15 km) largest cities of the country. On October 1st, 2005, the volcano erupted after months of increased activity. Following the eruption, volcanic mitigation projects were conducted in the region, but the communities had little or no input on them. This project consisted in the creation of lahar volcanic hazard map for the Canton Buanos Aires on the northern part of the volcano by incorporating the community's knowledge from prior events to model parameters and results. The work with the community consisted in several meetings where the community members recounted past events. They were asked to map the outcomes of those events using either a topographic map of the area, a Google Earth image, or a blank paper poster size. These maps have been used to identify hazard and vulnerable areas, and for model validation. These maps were presented to the communities and they accepted their results and the maps.

Recognizing and dating prehistoric liquefaction features: Lessons learned in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tuttle, M.P.; Schweig, E.S.

1996-01-01

The New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ), which experienced severe liquefaction during the great New Madrid, Missouri, earthquakes of 1811 and 1812 as well as during several prehistoric earthquakes, is a superb laboratory for the study of world-class, arthquake-induced liquefaction features and their use in paleoseismology. In seismically active regions like the NMSZ, frequent large earthquakes can produce a complex record of liquefaction events that is difficult to interpret. Lessons learned studying liquefaction features in the NMSZ may help to unravel the paleoseismic record in other seismically active regions. Soil characteristics of liquefaction features, as well as their structural and sratigraphic relations to Native American occupation horizons and other cultural features, an help to distinguish prehistoric liquefaction features from historic features. In addition, analyses of artifact assemblages and botanical content of cultural horizons can help to narrow the age ranges of liquefaction features. Future research should focus on methods for defining source areas and estimating magnitudes of prehistoric earthquakes from liquefaction features. Also, new methods for dating liquefaction features are needed.

Documentation for the 2014 update of the United States national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter M.; Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Zeng, Yuehua; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Field, Edward; Chen, Rui; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nico; Wheeler, Russell L.; Williams, Robert A.; Olsen, Anna H.

2014-01-01

The national seismic hazard maps for the conterminous United States have been updated to account for new methods, models, and data that have been obtained since the 2008 maps were released (Petersen and others, 2008). The input models are improved from those implemented in 2008 by using new ground motion models that have incorporated about twice as many earthquake strong ground shaking data and by incorporating many additional scientific studies that indicate broader ranges of earthquake source and ground motion models. These time-independent maps are shown for 2-percent and 10-percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for peak horizontal ground acceleration as well as 5-hertz and 1-hertz spectral accelerations with 5-percent damping on a uniform firm rock site condition (760 meters per second shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m, VS30). In this report, the 2014 updated maps are compared with the 2008 version of the maps and indicate changes of plus or minus 20 percent over wide areas, with larger changes locally, caused by the modifications to the seismic source and ground motion inputs.

Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cao, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Frankel, A.D.

2005-01-01

In this article we present and explore the source and ground-motion model uncertainty and parametric sensitivity for the 2002 update of the California probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Our approach is to implement a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for independent sampling from fault to fault in each simulation. The source-distance dependent characteristics of the uncertainty maps of seismic hazard are explained by the fundamental uncertainty patterns from four basic test cases, in which the uncertainties from one-fault and two-fault systems are studied in detail. The California coefficient of variation (COV, ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) map for peak ground acceleration (10% of exceedance in 50 years) shows lower values (0.1-0.15) along the San Andreas fault system and other class A faults than along class B faults (0.2-0.3). High COV values (0.4-0.6) are found around the Garlock, Anacapa-Dume, and Palos Verdes faults in southern California and around the Maacama fault and Cascadia subduction zone in northern California.

Seismic and tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dillon, William P.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rodriguez, Rafael W.; ten Brink, Uri S.

1999-01-01

Executive SummaryPuerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are located at an active plate boundary between the North American plate and the northeast corner of the Caribbean plate. The region was subject in historical times to large magnitude earthquakes and devastating tsunamis. A major downward tilt of the sea floor north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, large submarine rockslides, and an unusually large negative gravity anomaly are also indicative of a tectonically active region. Scientists have so far failed to explain the deformation of this region in a coherent and predictable picture, such as in California, and this has hampered their ability to assess seismic and tsunami hazards in the region. The NE corner of the Caribbean is unique among the seismically-active regions of the United States in that it is mostly covered by water. This fact presents an additional challenge for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation.The workshop, convened in San Juan on March 23-24, 1999, was "historic" in that it brought together for the first time a broad spectrum of scientists, engineers, and public and private sector officials who deal with such diverse questions as tectonic models, probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard, prediction of tsunami runup, strong ground motion, building codes, stability of man-made structures, and the public’s preparedness for natural disasters. It was an opportunity for all the participants to find out how their own activity fit into the broad picture of science and how it aids society in hazard assessment and mitigation. In addition, the workshop was offered as a continuing education course at the Colegio de Ingenieros y Agrimensores de Puerto Rico, which assured a rapid dissemination of the results to the local community. A news conference which took place during the workshop alerted the public to the efforts of the USGS, other Federal agencies, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, universities and the private sector.During the first day of the workshop, participants from universities, federal institutions, and consulting firms in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the continental U.S., Dominican Republic, and Europe reviewed the present state of knowledge including a review and discussion of present plate models, recent GPS and seismic reflection data, seismicity, paleoseismology, and tsunamis. The state of earthquake/tsunami studies in Puerto Rico was presented by several faculty members from the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez. A preliminary seismic hazard map was presented by the USGS and previous hazard maps and economic loss assessments were considered. During the second day, the participants divided into working groups and prepared specific recommendations for future activities in the region along the six following topics below. Highlights of these recommended activities are:Marine geology and geophysics – Acquire deep-penetration seismic reflection and refraction data, deploy temporary ocean bottom seismometer arrays to record earthquakes, collect high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and side scan sonar data of the region, and in particular, the near shore region, and conduct focussed high-resolution seismic studies around faults. Determine slip rates of specific offshore faults. Assemble a GIS database for available marine geological and geophysical data.Paleoseismology and active faults - Field reconnaissance aimed at identifying Quaternary faults and determining their paleoseismic chronology and slip rates, as well as identifying and dating paleoliquefaction features from large earthquakes. Quaternary mapping of marine terraces, fluvial terraces and basins, beach ridges, etc., to establish framework for understanding neotectonic deformation of the island. Interpretation of aerial photography to identify possible Quaternary faults.Earthquake seismology – Determine an empirical seismic attenuation function using observations from local seismic networks and recently-installed broad-band stations. Evaluate existing earthquake catalogs from local networks and regional stations, complete the catalogs. Transcribe the pre-1991 network data from 9-track tape onto more stable archival media. Calibrate instruments of local networks. Use GPS measurement to constrain deformation rates used in seismic-hazard maps.Engineering – Prepare liquefaction susceptibility maps for the urban areas. Update and improve databases for types of site conditions. Collect site effect observations and near-surface geophysical measurements for future local (urban-area) hazard maps. Expand the number of instruments in the strong motion program. Develop fragility curves for Puerto Rico construction types and details, and carry out laboratory testing on selected types of mass-produced construction. Consider tsunami design in shoreline construction projects.Tsunami hazard - Extract tsunami observations from archives and develop a Caribbean historical tsunami database. Analyze prehistoric tsunami deposits. Collect accurate, up-to-date, near-shore topography and bathymetry for accurate inundation models. Prepare tsunami flooding and evacuation maps. Establish a Caribbean Tsunami Warning System for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Evaluate local, regional, national, and global seismic networks and equipment, and their role in a tsunami warning system.Societal concerns – Prepare warning messages, protocols, and evacuation routes for earthquake, tsunami, and landslide hazards for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Advocate enforcement of existing building codes. Prepare non-technical hazard assessment maps for political and educational uses. Raise the awareness of potentially affected populations by presentations at elementary schools, by the production of a tsunami video, and by distribution of earthquake preparedness manuals in newspaper supplements. Promote partnerships at state and federal level for long-term earthquake and tsunami hazard mitigation. This partnership should also include the private sector such as the insurance industry, telecommunication companies, and the engineering community.The following reports of the various working groups are the cumulative recommendations of the community of scientists, engineers, and public officials, who participated in the workshop. The list of participants and the workshop’s agenda are given in the appendix.Marine and Geology and Geophysics Working GroupPaleoseismology and Active Faults Working GroupJoint Working Group for Earthquake Seismology and EngineeringTsunami Working GroupSocietal Concerns Working Group

Digital geomorphological landslide hazard mapping of the Alpago area, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees J.; Soeters, Rob; Sijmons, Koert

Large-scale geomorphological maps of mountainous areas are traditionally made using complex symbol-based legends. They can serve as excellent "geomorphological databases", from which an experienced geomorphologist can extract a large amount of information for hazard mapping. However, these maps are not designed to be used in combination with a GIS, due to their complex cartographic structure. In this paper, two methods are presented for digital geomorphological mapping at large scales using GIS and digital cartographic software. The methods are applied to an area with a complex geomorphological setting on the Borsoia catchment, located in the Alpago region, near Belluno in the Italian Alps. The GIS database set-up is presented with an overview of the data layers that have been generated and how they are interrelated. The GIS database was also converted into a paper map, using a digital cartographic package. The resulting largescale geomorphological hazard map is attached. The resulting GIS database and cartographic product can be used to analyse the hazard type and hazard degree for each polygon, and to find the reasons for the hazard classification.

Pyroclastic density current hazard maps at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): the effects of event scale, vent location and time forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Neri, Augusto; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Isaia, Roberto; Flandoli, Franco; Bisson, Marina

2016-04-01

Today hundreds of thousands people live inside the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) and in the adjacent part of the city of Naples making a future eruption of such volcano an event with huge consequences. Very high risks are associated with the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Mapping of background or long-term PDC hazard in the area is a great challenge due to the unknown eruption time, scale and vent location of the next event as well as the complex dynamics of the flow over the caldera topography. This is additionally complicated by the remarkable epistemic uncertainty on the eruptive record, affecting the time of past events, the location of vents as well as the PDCs areal extent estimates. First probability maps of PDC invasion were produced combining a vent-opening probability map, statistical estimates concerning the eruptive scales and a Cox-type temporal model including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Maps were produced by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified inundation model based on the "box model" integral approximation tested with 2D transient numerical simulations of flow dynamics. In this presentation we illustrate the independent effects of eruption scale, vent location and time of forecast of the next event. Specific focus was given to the remarkable differences between the eastern and western sectors of the caldera and their effects on the hazard maps. The analysis allowed to identify areas with elevated probabilities of flow invasion as a function of the diverse assumptions made. With the quantification of some sources of uncertainty in relation to the system, we were also able to provide mean and percentile maps of PDC hazard levels.

Project of Near-Real-Time Generation of ShakeMaps and a New Hazard Map in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Yan; Weginger, Stefan; Horn, Nikolaus; Hausmann, Helmut; Lenhardt, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

Target-orientated prevention and effective crisis management can reduce or avoid damage and save lives in case of a strong earthquake. To achieve this goal, a project for automatic generated ShakeMaps (maps of ground motion and shaking intensity) and updating the Austrian hazard map was started at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik) in 2015. The first goal of the project is set for a near-real-time generation of ShakeMaps following strong earthquakes in Austria to provide rapid, accurate and official information to support the governmental crisis management. Using newly developed methods and software by SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) and GEM (Global Earthquake Model), which allows a transnational analysis at European level, a new generation of Austrian hazard maps will be ultimately calculated. More information and a status of our project will be given by this presentation.

Assessment of liquefaction-induced hazards using Bayesian networks based on standard penetration test data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Xiao-Wei; Bai, Xu; Hu, Ji-Lei; Qiu, Jiang-Nan

2018-05-01

Liquefaction-induced hazards such as sand boils, ground cracks, settlement, and lateral spreading are responsible for considerable damage to engineering structures during major earthquakes. Presently, there is no effective empirical approach that can assess different liquefaction-induced hazards in one model. This is because of the uncertainties and complexity of the factors related to seismic liquefaction and liquefaction-induced hazards. In this study, Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to integrate multiple factors related to seismic liquefaction, sand boils, ground cracks, settlement, and lateral spreading into a model based on standard penetration test data. The constructed BN model can assess four different liquefaction-induced hazards together. In a case study, the BN method outperforms an artificial neural network and Ishihara and Yoshimine's simplified method in terms of accuracy, Brier score, recall, precision, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). This demonstrates that the BN method is a good alternative tool for the risk assessment of liquefaction-induced hazards. Furthermore, the performance of the BN model in estimating liquefaction-induced hazards in Japan's 2011 Tōhoku earthquake confirms its correctness and reliability compared with the liquefaction potential index approach. The proposed BN model can also predict whether the soil becomes liquefied after an earthquake and can deduce the chain reaction process of liquefaction-induced hazards and perform backward reasoning. The assessment results from the proposed model provide informative guidelines for decision-makers to detect the damage state of a field following liquefaction.

Liquefaction process for solid carbonaceous materials containing alkaline earth metal humates

DOEpatents

Epperly, William R.; Deane, Barry C.; Brunson, Roy J.

1982-01-01

An improved liquefaction process wherein wall scale and particulate agglomeration during the liquefaction of solid carbonaceous materials containing alkaline earth metal humates is reduced and/or eliminated by subjecting the solid carbonaceous materials to controlled cyclic cavitation during liquefaction. It is important that the solid carbonaceous material be slurried in a suitable solvent or diluent during liquefaction. The cyclic cavitation may be imparted via pressure cycling, cyclic agitation and the like. When pressure cycling or the like is employed an amplitude equivalent to at least 25 psia is required to effectively remove scale from the liquefaction vessel walls.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

2007-11-01

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

Insights into earthquake hazard map performance from shaking history simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Vanneste, K.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2017-12-01

Why recent large earthquakes caused shaking stronger than predicted by earthquake hazard maps is under debate. This issue has two parts. Verification involves how well maps implement probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) ("have we built the map right?"). Validation asks how well maps forecast shaking ("have we built the right map?"). We explore how well a map can ideally perform by simulating an area's shaking history and comparing "observed" shaking to that predicted by a map generated for the same parameters. The simulations yield shaking distributions whose mean is consistent with the map, but individual shaking histories show large scatter. Infrequent large earthquakes cause shaking much stronger than mapped, as observed. Hence, PSHA seems internally consistent and can be regarded as verified. Validation is harder because an earthquake history can yield shaking higher or lower than that predicted while being consistent with the hazard map. The scatter decreases for longer observation times because the largest earthquakes and resulting shaking are increasingly likely to have occurred. For the same reason, scatter is much less for the more active plate boundary than for a continental interior. For a continental interior, where the mapped hazard is low, even an M4 event produces exceedances at some sites. Larger earthquakes produce exceedances at more sites. Thus many exceedances result from small earthquakes, but infrequent large ones may cause very large exceedances. However, for a plate boundary, an M6 event produces exceedance at only a few sites, and an M7 produces them in a larger, but still relatively small, portion of the study area. As reality gives only one history, and a real map involves assumptions about more complicated source geometries and occurrence rates, which are unlikely to be exactly correct and thus will contribute additional scatter, it is hard to assess whether misfit between actual shaking and a map — notably higher-than-mapped shaking — arises by chance or reflects biases in the map. Due to this problem, there are limits to how well we can expect hazard maps to predict future shaking, as well as to our ability to test the performance of a hazard map based on available observations.

Cooperative research in coal liquefaction. Technical progress report, May 1, 1993--April 30, 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huffman, G.P.

Accomplishments for the past year are presented for the following tasks: coliquefaction of coal with waste materials; catalysts for coal liquefaction to clean transportation fuels; fundamental research in coal liquefaction; and in situ analytical techniques for coal liquefaction and coal liquefaction catalysts some of the highlights are: very promising results have been obtained from the liquefaction of plastics, rubber tires, paper and other wastes, and the coliquefaction of wastes with coal; a number of water soluble coal liquefaction catalysts, iron, cobalt, nickel and molybdenum, have been comparatively tested; mossbauer spectroscopy, XAFS spectroscopy, TEM and XPS have been used to characterizemore » a variety of catalysts and other samples from numerous consortium and DOE liquefaction projects and in situ ESR measurements of the free radical density have been conducted at temperatures from 100 to 600{degrees}C and H{sub 2} pressures up to 600 psi.« less

Hydrothermal liquefaction of agricultural and forestry wastes: state-of-the-art review and future prospects.

PubMed

Cao, Leichang; Zhang, Cheng; Chen, Huihui; Tsang, Daniel C W; Luo, Gang; Zhang, Shicheng; Chen, Jianmin

2017-12-01

Hydrothermal liquefaction has been widely applied to obtain bioenergy and high-value chemicals from biomass in the presence of a solvent at moderate to high temperature (200-550°C) and pressure (5-25MPa). This article summarizes and discusses the conversion of agricultural and forestry wastes by hydrothermal liquefaction. The history and development of hydrothermal liquefaction technology for lignocellulosic biomass are briefly introduced. The research status in hydrothermal liquefaction of agricultural and forestry wastes is critically reviewed, particularly for the effects of liquefaction conditions on bio-oil yield and the decomposition mechanisms of main components in biomass. The limitations of hydrothermal liquefaction of agricultural and forestry wastes are discussed, and future research priorities are proposed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A national scale flood hazard mapping methodology: The case of Greece - Protection and adaptation policy approaches.

PubMed

Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Karatzas, George P

2017-12-01

The present work introduces a national scale flood hazard assessment methodology, using multi-criteria analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques in a GIS environment. The proposed methodology was applied in Greece, where flash floods are a relatively frequent phenomenon and it has become more intense over the last decades, causing significant damages in rural and urban sectors. In order the most prone flooding areas to be identified, seven factor-maps (that are directly related to flood generation) were combined in a GIS environment. These factor-maps are: a) the Flow accumulation (F), b) the Land use (L), c) the Altitude (A), b) the Slope (S), e) the soil Erodibility (E), f) the Rainfall intensity (R), and g) the available water Capacity (C). The name to the proposed method is "FLASERC". The flood hazard for each one of these factors is classified into five categories: Very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The above factors are combined and processed using the appropriate ANN algorithm tool. For the ANN training process spatial distribution of historical flooded points in Greece within the five different flood hazard categories of the aforementioned seven factor-maps were combined. In this way, the overall flood hazard map for Greece was determined. The final results are verified using additional historical flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 100years. In addition, an overview of flood protection measures and adaptation policy approaches were proposed for agricultural and urban areas located at very high flood hazard areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fifty-Year Flood-Inundation Maps for Santa Rosa de Aguan, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the coastal municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan that are prone to oceanic storm-surge flooding and wave action. The 50-year flood on the Rio Aguan (4,270 cubic meters per second), would inundate most of the area surveyed for this municipality and beyond. Therefore a detailed numerical hydraulic model was not developed for this municipality as it was for the others. The 50-year storm surge would likely produce higher water levels than the 50-year flood on the river during normal astronomical tides. The elevation of the 50-year storm surge was estimated to be 4.35 meters above normal sea level, based on hurricane probabilities and published storm-surge elevations associated with various hurricane categories. Flood-inundation maps, including areas of wave-action hazard and a color-shaded elevation map, were created from the available data and the estimated 50-year storm tide. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the hazard areas are available on a computer in the municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Data Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the maps in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report.

A genetic-algorithm approach for assessing the liquefaction potential of sandy soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, G.; Akyol, E.

2010-04-01

The determination of liquefaction potential is required to take into account a large number of parameters, which creates a complex nonlinear structure of the liquefaction phenomenon. The conventional methods rely on simple statistical and empirical relations or charts. However, they cannot characterise these complexities. Genetic algorithms are suited to solve these types of problems. A genetic algorithm-based model has been developed to determine the liquefaction potential by confirming Cone Penetration Test datasets derived from case studies of sandy soils. Software has been developed that uses genetic algorithms for the parameter selection and assessment of liquefaction potential. Then several estimation functions for the assessment of a Liquefaction Index have been generated from the dataset. The generated Liquefaction Index estimation functions were evaluated by assessing the training and test data. The suggested formulation estimates the liquefaction occurrence with significant accuracy. Besides, the parametric study on the liquefaction index curves shows a good relation with the physical behaviour. The total number of misestimated cases was only 7.8% for the proposed method, which is quite low when compared to another commonly used method.

Sensitivity analysis of the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR4 Earthquake Model using seismic events affecting King County Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neighbors, C.; Noriega, G. R.; Caras, Y.; Cochran, E. S.

2010-12-01

HAZUS-MH MR4 (HAZards U. S. Multi-Hazard Maintenance Release 4) is a risk-estimation software developed by FEMA to calculate potential losses due to natural disasters. Federal, state, regional, and local government use the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model for earthquake risk mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery planning (FEMA, 2003). In this study, we examine several parameters used by the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model methodology to understand how modifying the user-defined settings affect ground motion analysis, seismic risk assessment and earthquake loss estimates. This analysis focuses on both shallow crustal and deep intraslab events in the American Pacific Northwest. Specifically, the historic 1949 Mw 6.8 Olympia, 1965 Mw 6.6 Seattle-Tacoma and 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually normal fault intraslab events and scenario large-magnitude Seattle reverse fault crustal events are modeled. Inputs analyzed include variations of deterministic event scenarios combined with hazard maps and USGS ShakeMaps. This approach utilizes the capacity of the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model to define landslide- and liquefaction- susceptibility hazards with local groundwater level and slope stability information. Where Shakemap inputs are not used, events are run in combination with NEHRP soil classifications to determine site amplification effects. The earthquake component of HAZUS-MH applies a series of empirical ground motion attenuation relationships developed from source parameters of both regional and global historical earthquakes to estimate strong ground motion. Ground motion and resulting ground failure due to earthquakes are then used to calculate, direct physical damage for general building stock, essential facilities, and lifelines, including transportation systems and utility systems. Earthquake losses are expressed in structural, economic and social terms. Where available, comparisons between recorded earthquake losses and HAZUS-MH earthquake losses are used to determine how region coordinators can most effectively utilize their resources for earthquake risk mitigation. This study is being conducted in collaboration with King County, WA officials to determine the best model inputs necessary to generate robust HAZUS-MH models for the Pacific Northwest.

Deaggregation of Probabilistic Ground Motions in the Central and Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, S.; Perkins, D.; Frankel, A.

1999-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a technique for estimating the annual rate of exceedance of a specified ground motion at a site due to known and suspected earthquake sources. The relative contributions of the various sources to the total seismic hazard are determined as a function of their occurrence rates and their ground-motion potential. The separation of the exceedance contributions into bins whose base dimensions are magnitude and distance is called deaggregation. We have deaggregated the hazard analyses for the new USGS national probabilistic ground-motion hazard maps (Frankel et al., 1996). For points on a 0.2?? grid in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), we show color maps of the geographical variation of mean and modal magnitudes (M??, M??) and distances (D??, D??) for ground motions having a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are displayed for peak horizontal acceleration and for spectral response accelerations of 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec. We tabulate M??, D??, M??, and D?? for 49 CEUS cities for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response. Thus, these maps and tables are PSHA-derived estimates of the potential earthquakes that dominate seismic hazard at short and intermediate periods in the CEUS. The contribution to hazard of the New Madrid and Charleston sources dominates over much of the CEUS; for 0.2-sec response, over 40% of the area; for 1.0-sec response, over 80% of the area. For 0.2-sec response, D?? ranges from 20 to 200 km, for 1.0 sec, 30 to 600 km. For sites influenced by New Madrid or Charleston, D is less than the distance to these sources, and M?? is less than the characteristic magnitude of these sources, because averaging takes into account the effect of smaller magnitude and closer sources. On the other hand, D?? is directly the distance to New Madrid or Charleston and M?? for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response corresponds to the dominating source over much of the CEUS. For some cities in the North Atlantic states, short-period seismic hazard is apt to be controlled by local seismicity, whereas intermediate period (1.0 sec) hazard is commonly controlled by regional seismicity, such as that of the Charlevoix seismic zone.

Seismic Hazard Maps for the Maltese Archipelago: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, S.; Panzera, F.; Galea, P. M.

2013-12-01

The Maltese islands form an archipelago of three major islands lying in the Sicily channel at about 140 km south of Sicily and 300 km north of Libya. So far very few investigations have been carried out on seismicity around the Maltese islands and no maps of seismic hazard for the archipelago are available. Assessing the seismic hazard for the region is currently of prime interest for the near-future development of industrial and touristic facilities as well as for urban expansion. A culture of seismic risk awareness has never really been developed in the country, and the public perception is that the islands are relatively safe, and that any earthquake phenomena are mild and infrequent. However, the Archipelago has been struck by several moderate/large events. Although recent constructions of a certain structural and strategic importance have been built according to high engineering standards, the same probably cannot be said for all residential buildings, many higher than 3 storeys, which have mushroomed rapidly in recent years. Such buildings are mostly of unreinforced masonry, with heavy concrete floor slabs, which are known to be highly vulnerable to even moderate ground shaking. We can surely state that in this context planning and design should be based on available national hazard maps. Unfortunately, these kinds of maps are not available for the Maltese islands. In this paper we attempt to compute a first and preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Maltese islands in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at different periods. Seismic hazard has been computed using the Esteva-Cornell (1968) approach which is the most widely utilized probabilistic method. It is a zone-dependent approach: seismotectonic and geological data are used coupled with earthquake catalogues to identify seismogenic zones within which earthquakes occur at certain rates. Therefore the earthquake catalogues can be reduced to the activity rate, the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and an estimate of the maximum magnitude. In this article we also defined a new seismogenic zones in the central Mediterranean never considered before. In order to determine the ground motion parameters related to a specified probability of exceedance, the above statistical parameters are combined with ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard computations have been performed within the island boundaries. The preliminary maps for PGA distribution on rock site obtained for a 10% probability of exceedance shows values ranging between 0.09-0.18 g whereas, SA for 0.2, 04, 1.0 s show values of about 0.21-0.40 g, 0.14-0.24 g and 0.05-0.08 g respectively.

Comparative study on liquefaction of creosote and chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood and untreated southern pine wood: effects of acid catalyst content, liquefaction time, temperature, and phenol to wood ratio

Treesearch

Hui Pan; Chung-Yun Hse; Todd F. Shupe

2009-01-01

Creosote- and chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood waste and untreated southern pine wood were liquefied with phenol and sulfuric acid. The effects of sulfuric acid content, liquefaction time, liquefaction temperature, and phenol to wood ratio on liquefaction rate (i.e., wood residue content) were investigated and analyzed by analysis of variance (...

A novel vortex tube-based N2-expander liquefaction process for enhancing the energy efficiency of natural gas liquefaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qyyum, Muhammad Abdul; Wei, Feng; Hussain, Arif; Ali, Wahid; Sehee, Oh; Lee, Moonyong

2017-11-01

This research work unfolds a simple, safe, and environment-friendly energy efficient novel vortex tube-based natural gas liquefaction process (LNG). A vortex tube was introduced to the popular N2-expander liquefaction process to enhance the liquefaction efficiency. The process structure and condition were modified and optimized to take a potential advantage of the vortex tube on the natural gas liquefaction cycle. Two commercial simulators ANSYS® and Aspen HYSYS® were used to investigate the application of vortex tube in the refrigeration cycle of LNG process. The Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was used to simulate the vortex tube with nitrogen (N2) as a working fluid. Subsequently, the results of the CFD model were embedded in the Aspen HYSYS® to validate the proposed LNG liquefaction process. The proposed natural gas liquefaction process was optimized using the knowledge-based optimization (KBO) approach. The overall energy consumption was chosen as an objective function for optimization. The performance of the proposed liquefaction process was compared with the conventional N2-expander liquefaction process. The vortex tube-based LNG process showed a significant improvement of energy efficiency by 20% in comparison with the conventional N2-expander liquefaction process. This high energy efficiency was mainly due to the isentropic expansion of the vortex tube. It turned out that the high energy efficiency of vortex tube-based process is totally dependent on the refrigerant cold fraction, operating conditions as well as refrigerant cycle configurations.

How well can we test probabilistic seismic hazard maps?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanneste, Kris; Stein, Seth; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Vleminckx, Bart

2017-04-01

Recent large earthquakes that gave rise to shaking much stronger than shown in probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) maps have stimulated discussion about how well these maps forecast future shaking. These discussions have brought home the fact that although the maps are designed to achieve certain goals, we know little about how well they actually perform. As for any other forecast, this question involves verification and validation. Verification involves assessing how well the algorithm used to produce hazard maps implements the conceptual PSH model ("have we built the model right?"). Validation asks how well the model forecasts the shaking that actually occurs ("have we built the right model?"). We explore the verification issue by simulating shaking histories for an area with assumed uniform distribution of earthquakes, Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, Poisson temporal occurrence model, and ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). We compare the maximum simulated shaking at many sites over time with that predicted by a hazard map generated for the same set of parameters. The Poisson model predicts that the fraction of sites at which shaking will exceed that of the hazard map is p = 1 - exp(-t/T), where t is the duration of observations and T is the map's return period. Exceedance is typically associated with infrequent large earthquakes, as observed in real cases. The ensemble of simulated earthquake histories yields distributions of fractional exceedance with mean equal to the predicted value. Hence, the PSH algorithm appears to be internally consistent and can be regarded as verified for this set of simulations. However, simulated fractional exceedances show a large scatter about the mean value that decreases with increasing t/T, increasing observation time and increasing Gutenberg-Richter a-value (combining intrinsic activity rate and surface area), but is independent of GMPE uncertainty. This scatter is due to the variability of earthquake recurrence, and so decreases as the largest earthquakes occur in more simulations. Our results are important for evaluating the performance of a hazard map based on misfits in fractional exceedance, and for assessing whether such misfit arises by chance or reflects a bias in the map. More specifically, we determined for a broad range of Gutenberg-Richter a-values theoretical confidence intervals on allowed misfits in fractional exceedance and on the percentage of hazard-map bias that can thus be detected by comparison with observed shaking histories. Given that in the real world we only have one shaking history for an area, these results indicate that even if a hazard map does not fit the observations, it is very difficult to assess its veracity, especially for low-to-moderate-seismicity regions. Because our model is a simplified version of reality, any additional uncertainty or complexity will tend to widen these confidence intervals.

Liquefaction Of Coal With Surfactant And Disposable Catalyst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hickey, Gregory S.; Sharma, Pramod K.

1996-01-01

Fuels derived from coal more competitive with petroleum products. Improved coal-liquefaction process exploits synergistic effects of disposable iron oxide catalyst and cheap anionic surfactant. Efficiency of conversion achieved in significantly higher than efficiencies obtained with addition of either surfactant or catalyst alone. No costly pretreatment necessary, and increase in conversion achieved under processing conditions milder than those used heretofore in liquefaction of coal. Quality of distillates obtained after liquefaction in process expected superior to distillates obtained after liquefaction by older techniques.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Remote sensing as tool for development of landslide databases: The case of the Messina Province (Italy) geodatabase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciampalini, Andrea; Raspini, Federico; Bianchini, Silvia; Frodella, William; Bardi, Federica; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Di Traglia, Federico; Moretti, Sandro; Proietti, Chiara; Pagliara, Paola; Onori, Roberta; Corazza, Angelo; Duro, Andrea; Basile, Giuseppe; Casagli, Nicola

2015-11-01

Landslide geodatabases, including inventories and thematic data, today are fundamental tools for national and/or local authorities in susceptibility, hazard and risk management. A well organized landslide geo-database contains different kinds of data such as past information (landslide inventory maps), ancillary data and updated remote sensing (space-borne and ground based) data, which can be integrated in order to produce landslide susceptibility maps, updated landslide inventory maps and hazard and risk assessment maps. Italy is strongly affected by landslide phenomena which cause victims and significant economic damage to buildings and infrastructure, loss of productive soils and pasture lands. In particular, the Messina Province (southern Italy) represents an area where landslides are recurrent and characterized by high magnitude, due to several predisposing factors (e.g. morphology, land use, lithologies) and different triggering mechanisms (meteorological conditions, seismicity, active tectonics and volcanic activity). For this area, a geodatabase was created by using different monitoring techniques, including remote sensing (e.g. SAR satellite ERS1/2, ENVISAT, RADARSAT-1, TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMed) data, and in situ measurements (e.g. GBInSAR, damage assessment). In this paper a complete landslide geodatabase of the Messina Province, designed following the requirements of the local and national Civil Protection authorities, is presented. This geo-database was used to produce maps (e.g. susceptibility, ground deformation velocities, damage assessment, risk zonation) which today are constantly used by the Civil Protection authorities to manage the landslide hazard of the Messina Province.

Landslide inventory maps: New tools for an old problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, Fausto; Mondini, Alessandro Cesare; Cardinali, Mauro; Fiorucci, Federica; Santangelo, Michele; Chang, Kang-Tsung

2012-04-01

Landslides are present in all continents, and play an important role in the evolution of landscapes. They also represent a serious hazard in many areas of the world. Despite their importance, we estimate that landslide maps cover less than 1% of the slopes in the landmasses, and systematic information on the type, abundance, and distribution of landslides is lacking. Preparing landslide maps is important to document the extent of landslide phenomena in a region, to investigate the distribution, types, pattern, recurrence and statistics of slope failures, to determine landslide susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability and risk, and to study the evolution of landscapes dominated by mass-wasting processes. Conventional methods for the production of landslide maps rely chiefly on the visual interpretation of stereoscopic aerial photography, aided by field surveys. These methods are time consuming and resource intensive. New and emerging techniques based on satellite, airborne, and terrestrial remote sensing technologies, promise to facilitate the production of landslide maps, reducing the time and resources required for their compilation and systematic update. In this work, we first outline the principles for landslide mapping, and we review the conventional methods for the preparation of landslide maps, including geomorphological, event, seasonal, and multi-temporal inventories. Next, we examine recent and new technologies for landslide mapping, considering (i) the exploitation of very-high resolution digital elevation models to analyze surface morphology, (ii) the visual interpretation and semi-automatic analysis of different types of satellite images, including panchromatic, multispectral, and synthetic aperture radar images, and (iii) tools that facilitate landslide field mapping. Next, we discuss the advantages and the limitations of the new remote sensing data and technology for the production of geomorphological, event, seasonal, and multi-temporal inventory maps. We conclude by arguing that the new tools will help to improve the quality of landslide maps, with positive effects on all derivative products and analyses, including erosion studies and landscape modeling, susceptibility and hazard assessments, and risk evaluations.

Earthquake scenario and probabilistic ground-shaking hazard maps for the Albuquerque-Belen-Santa Fe, New Mexico, corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, I.; Olig, S.; Dober, M.; Silva, W.; Wright, D.; Thomas, P.; Gregor, N.; Sanford, A.; Lin, K.-W.; Love, D.

2004-01-01

These maps are not intended to be a substitute for site-specific studies for engineering design nor to replace standard maps commonly referenced in building codes. Rather, we hope that these maps will be used as a guide by government agencies; the engineering, urban planning, emergency preparedness, and response communities; and the general public as part of an overall program to reduce earthquake risk and losses in New Mexico.

Documenting Liquefaction Failures Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Artificial Intelligence Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oommen, T.; Baise, L. G.; Gens, R.; Prakash, A.; Gupta, R. P.

2009-12-01

Historically, earthquake induced liquefaction is known to have caused extensive damage around the world. Therefore, there is a compelling need to characterize and map liquefaction after a seismic event. Currently, after an earthquake event, field-based mapping of liquefaction is sporadic and limited due to inaccessibility, short life of the failures, difficulties in mapping large aerial extents, and lack of resources. We hypothesize that as liquefaction occurs in saturated granular soils due to an increase in pore pressure, the liquefaction related terrain changes should have an associated increase in soil moisture with respect to the surrounding non-liquefied regions. The increase in soil moisture affects the thermal emittance and, hence, change detection using pre- and post-event thermal infrared (TIR) imagery is suitable for identifying areas that have undergone post-earthquake liquefaction. Though change detection using TIR images gives the first indication of areas of liquefaction, the spatial resolution of TIR images is typically coarser than the resolution of corresponding visible, near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR) images. We hypothesize that liquefaction induced changes in the soil and associated surface effects cause textural and spectral changes in images acquired in the visible, NIR, and SWIR. Although these changes can be from various factors, a synergistic approach taking advantage of the thermal signature variation due to changing soil moisture condition, together with the spectral information from high resolution visible, NIR, and SWIR bands can help to narrow down the locations of post-event liquefaction for regional documentation. In this study, we analyze the applicability of combining various spectral bands from different satellites (Landsat, Terra-MISR, IRS-1C, and IRS-1D) for documenting liquefaction failures associated with the magnitude 7.6 earthquake that occurred in Bhuj, India, in 2001. We combine the various spectral bands by neighborhood correlation image analysis using an artificial intelligence algorithm called support vector machine to remotely identify and document liquefaction failures across a region; and assess the reliability and accuracy of the thermal remote sensing approach in documenting regional liquefaction failures. Finally, we present the applicability of the satellite data analyzed and appropriateness of a multisensor and multispectral approach for documenting liquefaction related failures.

Debris flow risk mapping on medium scale and estimation of prospective economic losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blahut, Jan; Sterlacchini, Simone

2010-05-01

Delimitation of potential zones affected by debris flow hazard, mapping of areas at risk, and estimation of future economic damage provides important information for spatial planners and local administrators in all countries endangered by this type of phenomena. This study presents a medium scale (1:25 000 - 1: 50 000) analysis applied in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Italian Alps, Lombardy Region). In this area a debris flow hazard map was coupled with the information about the elements at risk to obtain monetary values of prospective damage. Two available hazard maps were obtained from GIS medium scale modelling. Probability estimations of debris flow occurrence were calculated using existing susceptibility maps and two sets of aerial images. Value to the elements at risk was assigned according to the official information on housing costs and land value from the Territorial Agency of Lombardy Region. In the first risk map vulnerability values were assumed to be 1. The second risk map uses three classes of vulnerability values qualitatively estimated according to the debris flow possible propagation. Risk curves summarizing the possible economic losses were calculated. Finally these maps of economic risk were compared to maps derived from qualitative evaluation of the values of the elements at risk.

Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

2017-12-01

The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

Efficiency of jet grout columns and sand-recycled material mixtures for mitigating liquefaction damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerem Ertek, M.; Demir, Gökhan; Köktan, Utku

2017-04-01

Liquefaction is an important seismic phenomena that has to be assessed and consequently makes it essential to take measures in order to reduce related hazards. There are several ways to assess liquefaction potential analytically and some constitutive models implemented in FEM softwares presenting cyclic behaviour of sand making it possible to observe shear strain or excess pore pressure ratio which are measures to hold a view about liquefaction occurrence. According to various studies in the literature, post-earthquake inspections show that the measures in terms of grouting, piled rafts and sand mixtures with different non-liquefiable materials reduce liquefaction related damage. This paper aims to provide a brief information about effectiveness of jet-grout columns and recycled material-sand mixtures against liquefaction by the help of numerical analyses performed with MIDAS GTS NX software with regard to generation of shear strains. Key words: liquefaction, numerical analyses, jet-grout, sand mixtures

Thermodynamic Analysis on of Skid-Mounted Coal-bed Methane Liquefaction Device using Cryogenic Turbo-Expander

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuangtao; Niu, Lu; Zeng, Qiang; Li, Xiaojiang; Lou, Fang; Chen, Liang; Hou, Yu

2017-12-01

Coal-bed methane (CBM) reserves are rich in Sinkiang of China, and liquefaction is a critical step for the CBM exploration and utilization. Different from other CBM gas fields in China, CBM distribution in Sinkiang is widespread but scattered, and the pressure, flow-rate and nitrogen content of CBM feed vary significantly. The skid-mounted liquefaction device is suggested as an efficient and economical way to recover methane. Turbo-expander is one of the most important parts which generates the cooling capacity for the cryogenic liquefaction system. Using turbo-expander, more cooling capacity and higher liquefied fraction can be achieved. In this study, skid-mounted CBM liquefaction processes based on Claude cycle are established. Cryogenic turbo-expander with high expansion ratio is employed to improve the efficiency of CBM liquefaction process. The unit power consumption per liquefaction mole flow-rate for CBM feed gas is used as the object function for process optimization, compressor discharge pressure, flow ratio of feed gas to turbo-expander and nitrogen friction are analyzed, and optimum operation range of the liquefaction processes are obtained.

Probabilistic evaluation of damage potential in earthquake-induced liquefaction in a 3-D soil deposit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halder, A.; Miller, F. J.

1982-03-01

A probabilistic model to evaluate the risk of liquefaction at a site and to limit or eliminate damage during earthquake induced liquefaction is proposed. The model is extended to consider three dimensional nonhomogeneous soil properties. The parameters relevant to the liquefaction phenomenon are identified, including: (1) soil parameters; (2) parameters required to consider laboratory test and sampling effects; and (3) loading parameters. The fundamentals of risk based design concepts pertient to liquefaction are reviewed. A detailed statistical evaluation of the soil parameters in the proposed liquefaction model is provided and the uncertainty associated with the estimation of in situ relative density is evaluated for both direct and indirect methods. It is found that the liquefaction potential the uncertainties in the load parameters could be higher than those in the resistance parameters.

Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed

2018-04-01

An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

Study Gradation and Moisture Content of Sand Embankment on Peat Subjected Vibration Potential Liquefaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agus Nugroho, Soewignjo; Ika Putra, Agus; Yusa, Muhamad

2018-03-01

In recent years large earthquakes often occur on the island of Sumatra. There is a phenomenon of the damage occurred during the earthquake, one of the effects is a phenomenon of loss of soil strength due to vibration called liquefaction. Some cases of liquefaction occur in some areas in Aceh, Nias Island, Padang and Pariaman. Pekanbaru is located close to the fault area that causes the occurrence of earthquake wave propagation. Pekanbaru are also at risk for geotechnical problems because of earthquake such as liquefaction. Evaluation of liquefaction potential could using by in-situ test and by laboratory test. The laboratory test to evaluation liquefaction potential among which method of experiment shaking table. In this study, liquefaction phenomenon was conducted by creating a physical model of a laboratory scale using a one-way vibration machine, with a review of how big the influence of sand gradation, sand shaped and grain-size, and surface water level in the sand against liquefaction potential. Evaluate of liquefaction potential based on the surface reading of the soil movement, elapsed time for final settlement and an excess pore water dissipation (EPD) during testing. Based on the results of performed test, indicated that fine sand on fully saturated conditions have the potential of maximum settlement for 20.67% and maximum ascend of pore water for 46.67%. This result mean that poorly graded fine sand on fully saturated conditions has more liquefaction potential than medium sand, coarse sand, and well graded sand

Liquefaction behaviors of bamboo residues in a glycerol-based solvent using microwave energy

Treesearch

Jiulong Xie; Chung-Yun Hse; Todd F. Shupe; Jinqiu Qi; Hui Pan

2014-01-01

Liquefaction of bamboo was performed in glycerol–methanol as co-solvent using microwave energy and was evaluated by characterizing the liquefied residues. High efficiency conversion of bamboo was achieved under mild reaction conditions. Liquefaction temperature and time interacted to affect the liquefaction reaction. Fourier transform infrared analyzes of the residues...

Liquefaction and other ground failures in Imperial County, California, from the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCrink, Timothy P.; Pridmore, Cynthia L.; Tinsley, John C.; Sickler, Robert R.; Brandenberg, Scott J.; Stewart, Jonathan P.

2011-01-01

The Colorado River Delta region of southern Imperial Valley, California, and Mexicali Valley, Baja California, is a tectonically dynamic area characterized by numerous active faults and frequent large seismic events. Significant earthquakes that have been accompanied by surface fault rupture and/or soil liquefaction occurred in this region in 1892 (M7.1), 1915 (M6.3; M7.1), 1930 (M5.7), 1940 (M6.9), 1950 (M5.4), 1957 (M5.2), 1968 (6.5), 1979 (6.4), 1980 (M6.1), 1981 (M5.8), and 1987 (M6.2; M6.8). Following this trend, the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake of April 4, 2010, ruptured approximately 120 kilometers along several known faults in Baja California. Liquefaction caused by the M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake was widespread throughout the southern Imperial Valley but concentrated in the southwest corner of the valley, southwest of the city centers of Calexico and El Centro where ground motions were highest. Although there are few strong motion recordings in the very western part of the area, the recordings that do exist indicate that ground motions were on the order of 0.3 to 0.6g where the majority of liquefaction occurrences were found. More distant liquefaction occurrences, at Fites Road southwest of Brawley and along Rosita Canal northwest of Holtville were triggered where ground motions were about 0.2 g. Damage to roads was associated mainly with liquefaction of sandy river deposits beneath bridge approach fills, and in some cases liquefaction within the fills. Liquefaction damage to canal and drain levees was not always accompanied by vented sand, but the nature of the damage leads the authors to infer that liquefaction was involved in the majority of observed cases. Liquefaction-related damage to several public facilities - Calexico Waste Water Treatment Plant, Fig Lagoon levee system, and Sunbeam Lake Dam in particular - appears to be extensive. The cost to repair these facilities to prevent future liquefaction damage will likely be prohibitive. As such, it is likely that liquefaction will recur at these facilities during the next large earthquake in this area.

The 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake and its significance for seismic hazards in eastern North America: overview and synthesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horton, J. Wright; Chapman, Martin C.; Green, Russell A.

2015-01-01

The earthquake and aftershocks occurred in crystalline rocks within Paleozoic thrust sheets of the Chopawamsic terrane. The main shock and majority of aftershocks delineated the newly named Quail fault zone in the subsurface, and shallow aftershocks defined outlying faults. The earthquake induced minor liquefaction sand boils, but notably there was no evidence of a surface fault rupture. Recurrence intervals, and evidence for larger earthquakes in the Quaternary in this area, remain important unknowns. This event, along with similar events during historical time, is a reminder that earthquakes of similar or larger magnitude pose a real hazard in eastern North America.

78 FR 58334 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-23

.... Upper Great Miami, Indiana, Ohio Watershed Shelby County, Ohio, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available... De Tour Village Hall, 260 South Superior Street, De Tour Village, MI 49725. Erie County, Ohio, and... Watershed Lawrence County, Ohio, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: www.fema...

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-01-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Lincoln County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Lincoln County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Lincoln County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Lincoln County, Maine is at least 17 years. Many of these studies were published in the mid- to late-1980s, and some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study. However, in the ensuing 15-20 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Liquefaction of calcium-containing subbituminous coals and coals of lower rank

DOEpatents

Brunson, Roy J.

1979-01-01

An improved process for the treatment of a calcium-containing subbituminous coal and coals of lower rank to form insoluble, thermally stable calcium salts which remain within the solids portions of the residue on liquefaction of the coal, thereby suppressing the formation of scale, made up largely of calcium carbonate which normally forms within the coal liquefaction reactor (i.e., coal liquefaction zone), e.g., on reactor surfaces, lines, auxiliary equipment and the like. An oxide of sulfur, in liquid phase, is contacted with a coal feed sufficient to impregnate the pores of the coal. The impregnated coal, in particulate form, can thereafter be liquefied in a coal liquefaction reactor (reaction zone) at coal liquefaction conditions without significant formation of scale.

Characterization of liquefied wood residues from different liquefaction conditions

Treesearch

Hui Pan; Todd f. Shupe; Chung-Yun Hse

2007-01-01

The amount of wood residue is used as a measurement of the extent of wood liquefaction. Characterization of the residue from wood liquefaction provides a new approach to understand some fundamental aspects of the liquefaction reaction. Residues were characterized by wet chemical analyses, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction (XRD), and...

Energy-efficient methane production from macroalgal biomass through chemo disperser liquefaction.

PubMed

Tamilarasan, K; Kavitha, S; Rajesh Banu, J; Arulazhagan, P; Yeom, Ick Tae

2017-03-01

In this study, an effort has been made to reduce the energy cost of liquefaction by coupling a mechanical disperser with a chemical (sodium tripolyphosphate). In terms of the cost and specific energy demand of liquefaction, the algal biomass disintegrated at 12,000rpm for 30min, and an STPP dosage of about 0.04g/gCOD was chosen as an optimal parameter. Chemo disperser liquefaction (CDL) was found to be energetically and economically sustainable in terms of liquefaction, methane production, and net profit (15%, 0.14gCOD/gCOD, and 4 USD/Ton of algal biomass) and preferable to disperser liquefaction (DL) (10%, 0.11 gCOD/gCOD, and -475 USD/Ton of algal biomass). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization for microwave-assisted direct liquefaction of bamboo residue in glycerol/methanol mixtures

Treesearch

Jiulong Xie; Jinqiu Qi; Chungyun Hse; Todd F. Shupe

2015-01-01

Bamboo residues were liquefied in a mixture of glycerol and methanol in the presence of sulfuric acid using microwave energy. We investigated the effects of liquefaction conditions, including glycerol/methanol ratio, liquefaction temperature, and reaction time on the conversion yield. The optimal liquefaction conditions were under the temperature of 120

Seismic hazard in the Istanbul metropolitan area: A preliminary re-evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, E.; Gulkan, Polat; Ozturk, N.Y.; Celebi, M.

2008-01-01

In 1999, two destructive earthquakes (M7.4 Kocaeli and M7.2 Duzce) occurred in the north west of Turkey and resulted in major stress-drops on the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault system where it continues under the Marmara Sea. These undersea fault segments were recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped to reshape the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on collected new information, seismic hazard of the Marmara region, particularly Istanbul Metropolitan Area and its vicinity, were re-examined using a probabilistic approach. Two seismic source and alternate recurrence models combined with various indigenous and foreign attenuation relationships were adapted within a logic tree formulation to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. The hazard maps show the peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0 s. These acceleration levels were computed for 2 and 10 % probabilities of transcendence in 50 years.

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-05-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Rapid and solvent-saving liquefaction of woody biomass using microwave-ultrasonic assisted technology.

PubMed

Lu, Zexiang; Wu, Zhengguo; Fan, Liwei; Zhang, Hui; Liao, Yiqiang; Zheng, Deyong; Wang, Siqun

2016-01-01

A novel process to rapidly liquefy sawdust using reduced quantities of solvent, was successfully carried out via microwave-ultrasonic assisted technology (MUAT) in a sulphuric acid/polyethylene glycol 400-glycerol catalytic system. The influences of some key parameters on the liquefaction yield were investigated. The results showed that compared with traditional liquefaction, the introduction of MUAT allowed the solvent dosage to be halved and shortened the liquefaction time from 60 to 20 min. The liquefaction yield reached 91% under the optimal conditions. However, the influence on the yield of some parameters such as catalyst concentration, was similar to that of traditional liquefaction, indicating that the application of MUAT possibly only intensified heat and mass transfer rather than altering either the degradation mechanism or pathway. The introduction of MUAT as a process intensification technology has good industrial application potential for woody biomass liquefaction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

2017-04-01

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out separately for each peril. Several models were implemented used to simulate the relevant processes involved. These models were fed by global and local climate data and geological data like elevation, slope, land use, soil characteristics etc. Exposure is a measure of the assets and population at risk. An extensive data collection and processing effort was carried out to derive nation-wide exposure data. Vulnerability is a measure of potential exposure losses if a hazardous event occurs. Vulnerability analyses were carried out separately for each peril, because of differences in impact characteristics. Damage functions were derived from asset characteristics and/or experiences from (international) literature. The main project output consists of tables and (GIS-) maps of hazard, exposure and risk. Tables present results at the nation-wide level (admin0), province level (admin1) and district level (admin2). Hazard maps are provided for various return periods, including 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000 years. All maps are stored in a Web-based GIS-platform. This platform contains four separate directories with [1] generic data (catchment boundaries, rivers etc), [2] hazard maps, [3] exposure maps and [4] risk maps for each of the considered perils.

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, Graeme; Burton, Paul W.

2010-09-01

The Aegean is the most seismically active and tectonically complex region in Europe. Damaging earthquakes have occurred here throughout recorded history, often resulting in considerable loss of life. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to determine the level of ground motion likely to be exceeded in a given time period. Multiple random simulations of seismicity are generated to calculate, directly, the ground motion for a given site. Within the seismic hazard analysis we explore the impact of different seismic source models, incorporating both uniform zones and distributed seismicity. A new, simplified, seismic source model, derived from seismotectonic interpretation, is presented for the Aegean region. This is combined into the epistemic uncertainty analysis alongside existing source models for the region, and models derived by a K-means cluster analysis approach. Seismic source models derived using the K-means approach offer a degree of objectivity and reproducibility into the otherwise subjective approach of delineating seismic sources using expert judgment. Similar review and analysis is undertaken for the selection of peak ground acceleration (PGA) attenuation models, incorporating into the epistemic analysis Greek-specific models, European models and a Next Generation Attenuation model. Hazard maps for PGA on a "rock" site with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years are produced and different source and attenuation models are compared. These indicate that Greek-specific attenuation models, with their smaller aleatory variability terms, produce lower PGA hazard, whilst recent European models and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) model produce similar results. The Monte Carlo method is extended further to assimilate epistemic uncertainty into the hazard calculation, thus integrating across several appropriate source and PGA attenuation models. Site condition and fault-type are also integrated into the hazard mapping calculations. These hazard maps are in general agreement with previous maps for the Aegean, recognising the highest hazard in the Ionian Islands, Gulf of Corinth and Hellenic Arc. Peak Ground Accelerations for some sites in these regions reach as high as 500-600 cm s -2 using European/NGA attenuation models, and 400-500 cm s -2 using Greek attenuation models.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Androscoggin County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed and as funds allow. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Androscoggin County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Androscoggin County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Androscoggin County, Maine, is at least 17 years. Most studies were published in the early 1990s, and some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study date. Since the studies were done, development has occurred in many of the watersheds and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

78 FR 21136 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-09

... zone designations, or the regulatory floodway (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations), as shown on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood... appeals to the Chief Executive Officer of the community as listed in the table below. FOR FURTHER...

78 FR 35300 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-12

... zone designations, or the regulatory floodway (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations), as shown on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood... appeals to the Chief Executive Officer of the community as listed in the table below. FOR FURTHER...

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

Data fusion strategies for hazard detection and safe site selection for planetary and small body landings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Câmara, F.; Oliveira, J.; Hormigo, T.; Araújo, J.; Ribeiro, R.; Falcão, A.; Gomes, M.; Dubois-Matra, O.; Vijendran, S.

2015-06-01

This paper discusses the design and evaluation of data fusion strategies to perform tiered fusion of several heterogeneous sensors and a priori data. The aim is to increase robustness and performance of hazard detection and avoidance systems, while enabling safe planetary and small body landings anytime, anywhere. The focus is on Mars and asteroid landing mission scenarios and three distinct data fusion algorithms are introduced and compared. The first algorithm consists of a hybrid camera-LIDAR hazard detection and avoidance system, the H2DAS, in which data fusion is performed at both sensor-level data (reconstruction of the point cloud obtained with a scanning LIDAR using the navigation motion states and correcting the image for motion compensation using IMU data), feature-level data (concatenation of multiple digital elevation maps, obtained from consecutive LIDAR images, to achieve higher accuracy and resolution maps while enabling relative positioning) as well as decision-level data (fusing hazard maps from multiple sensors onto a single image space, with a single grid orientation and spacing). The second method presented is a hybrid reasoning fusion, the HRF, in which innovative algorithms replace the decision-level functions of the previous method, by combining three different reasoning engines—a fuzzy reasoning engine, a probabilistic reasoning engine and an evidential reasoning engine—to produce safety maps. Finally, the third method presented is called Intelligent Planetary Site Selection, the IPSIS, an innovative multi-criteria, dynamic decision-level data fusion algorithm that takes into account historical information for the selection of landing sites and a piloting function with a non-exhaustive landing site search capability, i.e., capable of finding local optima by searching a reduced set of global maps. All the discussed data fusion strategies and algorithms have been integrated, verified and validated in a closed-loop simulation environment. Monte Carlo simulation campaigns were performed for the algorithms performance assessment and benchmarking. The simulations results comprise the landing phases of Mars and Phobos landing mission scenarios.

Microwave-assisted liquefaction of rape straw for the production of bio-oils

Treesearch

Xing-Yan Huang; Feng Li; Jiu-Long Xie; Cornelis F. De Hoop; Chung-Yun Hse; Jin-Qiu Qi; Hui Xiao

2017-01-01

The acid-catalyzed liquefaction of rape straw in methanol using microwave energy was examined. Conversion yield and energy consumption were evaluated to profile the microwave-assisted liquefaction process. Chemical components of the bio-oils from various liquefaction conditions were identified. A higher reaction temperature was found to be beneficial to obtain higher...

Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

2009-04-01

Historic volcanism in Spain is restricted to the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago formed by seven volcanic islands. Several historic eruptions have been registered in the last five hundred years. However, and despite the huge amount of citizens and tourist in the archipelago, only a few volcanic hazard studies have been carried out. These studies are mainly focused in the developing of hazard maps in Lanzarote and Tenerife islands, especially for land use planning. The main handicap for these studies in the Canary Islands is the lack of well reported historical eruptions, but also the lack of data such as geochronological, geochemical or structural. In recent years, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the improvement in the volcanic processes modelling has provided an important tool for volcanic hazard assessment. Although this sophisticated programs are really useful they need to be fed by a huge amount of data that sometimes, such in the case of the Canary Islands, are not available. For this reason, the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) is developing a complete geo-referenced database for long term volcanic analysis in the Canary Islands. The Canarian Volcanic Hazard Database (HADA) is based on a GIS helping to organize and manage volcanic information efficiently. HADA includes the following groups of information: (1) 1:25.000 scale geologic maps, (2) 1:25.000 topographic maps, (3) geochronologic data, (4) geochemical data, (5) structural information, (6) climatic data. Data must pass a quality control before they are included in the database. New data are easily integrated in the database. With the HADA database the IGME has started a systematic organization of the existing data. In the near future, the IGME will generate new information to be included in HADA, such as volcanological maps of the islands, structural information, geochronological data and other information to assess long term volcanic hazard analysis. HADA will permit having enough quality information to map volcanic hazards and to run more reliable models of volcanic hazards, but in addition it aims to become a sharing system, improving communication between researchers, reducing redundant work and to be the reference for geological research in the Canary Islands.

Evaluating simplified methods for liquefaction assessment for loss estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kongar, Indranil; Rossetto, Tiziana; Giovinazzi, Sonia

2017-06-01

Currently, some catastrophe models used by the insurance industry account for liquefaction by applying a simple factor to shaking-induced losses. The factor is based only on local liquefaction susceptibility and this highlights the need for a more sophisticated approach to incorporating the effects of liquefaction in loss models. This study compares 11 unique models, each based on one of three principal simplified liquefaction assessment methods: liquefaction potential index (LPI) calculated from shear-wave velocity, the HAZUS software method and a method created specifically to make use of USGS remote sensing data. Data from the September 2010 Darfield and February 2011 Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand are used to compare observed liquefaction occurrences to forecasts from these models using binary classification performance measures. The analysis shows that the best-performing model is the LPI calculated using known shear-wave velocity profiles, which correctly forecasts 78 % of sites where liquefaction occurred and 80 % of sites where liquefaction did not occur, when the threshold is set at 7. However, these data may not always be available to insurers. The next best model is also based on LPI but uses shear-wave velocity profiles simulated from the combination of USGS VS30 data and empirical functions that relate VS30 to average shear-wave velocities at shallower depths. This model correctly forecasts 58 % of sites where liquefaction occurred and 84 % of sites where liquefaction did not occur, when the threshold is set at 4. These scores increase to 78 and 86 %, respectively, when forecasts are based on liquefaction probabilities that are empirically related to the same values of LPI. This model is potentially more useful for insurance since the input data are publicly available. HAZUS models, which are commonly used in studies where no local model is available, perform poorly and incorrectly forecast 87 % of sites where liquefaction occurred, even at optimal thresholds. This paper also considers two models (HAZUS and EPOLLS) for estimation of the scale of liquefaction in terms of permanent ground deformation but finds that both models perform poorly, with correlations between observations and forecasts lower than 0.4 in all cases. Therefore these models potentially provide negligible additional value to loss estimation analysis outside of the regions for which they have been developed.

Complex geohazard susceptibility zoning for effective landuse planning and catastroph prevention in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hradecky, P.; Baron, I.

2012-04-01

The Czech Geological Survey conducted projects of geological mapping and complex geohazard susceptibility zoning in Nicaragua in the years 1997-2009. For selected areas in vicinity of major cities and towns basic geological maps at a scalle 1:50,000, maps of geomorphic features (Geomorphic Inventory Maps), Morphostructural Maps of estimated fault zones, and derived Geohazard Susceptibility maps were done. These maps were prepared during field campaigns by direct field mapping, analysis of remote-sensing data, communicating the local authorities, interwieving the local inhabitants and with very close cooperation with the local partner of the projects - the Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER). The resulting maps and explanatory reports presented the dangerous natural processes that occurred in each respective area in the past and proposed preventive measures in detail. Zones evaluated as highly susceptible, e.g., to (i) mass movements, (ii) large inundations, (iii) torrential flooding, (iv) seismogenic liquefaction, etc., were presented in bold colours on the maps. Such maps and reports were presented to local authorities and inhabitants of respective cities during public breefings at the end of each mapping campaign. In such a way, areas of Pacific volcanic ridge (1997-2003), Jinotega (2004), Somoto (2005), Estelí (2006), Boaco and Santa Lucia (2007, 2008), Sebaco (2008) and Jalapa (2009) were elaborated. The maps then served to the INETER for implementation into the landuse plans, evacuation routes and other preventive measures to protect and save human lives and inftrastructure. This approach could serve as a muster for a simple, cost effective and relatively fast geohazards susceptibility evaluation of any area in any developing country. The projects also paid attention to capacity building of our Nicaraguan partners. These projects of the Czech Geological Survey were conducted as the international aid of the Czech Republic to Nicaragua, financed by the Ministry of the Czech Republic

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... flood hazard that results from the decertification of a previously accredited flood protection system that is determined to be in the process of being restored to provide base flood protection V Area of... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface...

An integrated approach to flood hazard assessment on alluvial fans using numerical modeling, field mapping, and remote sensing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pelletier, J.D.; Mayer, L.; Pearthree, P.A.; House, P.K.; Demsey, K.A.; Klawon, J.K.; Vincent, K.R.

2005-01-01

Millions of people in the western United States live near the dynamic, distributary channel networks of alluvial fans where flood behavior is complex and poorly constrained. Here we test a new comprehensive approach to alluvial-fan flood hazard assessment that uses four complementary methods: two-dimensional raster-based hydraulic modeling, satellite-image change detection, fieldbased mapping of recent flood inundation, and surficial geologic mapping. Each of these methods provides spatial detail lacking in the standard method and each provides critical information for a comprehensive assessment. Our numerical model simultaneously solves the continuity equation and Manning's equation (Chow, 1959) using an implicit numerical method. It provides a robust numerical tool for predicting flood flows using the large, high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) necessary to resolve the numerous small channels on the typical alluvial fan. Inundation extents and flow depths of historic floods can be reconstructed with the numerical model and validated against field- and satellite-based flood maps. A probabilistic flood hazard map can also be constructed by modeling multiple flood events with a range of specified discharges. This map can be used in conjunction with a surficial geologic map to further refine floodplain delineation on fans. To test the accuracy of the numerical model, we compared model predictions of flood inundation and flow depths against field- and satellite-based flood maps for two recent extreme events on the southern Tortolita and Harquahala piedmonts in Arizona. Model predictions match the field- and satellite-based maps closely. Probabilistic flood hazard maps based on the 10 yr, 100 yr, and maximum floods were also constructed for the study areas using stream gage records and paleoflood deposits. The resulting maps predict spatially complex flood hazards that strongly reflect small-scale topography and are consistent with surficial geology. In contrast, FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) based on the FAN model predict uniformly high flood risk across the study areas without regard for small-scale topography and surficial geology. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapales, Ben Joseph; Mendoza, Jerico; Uichanco, Christopher; Mahar Francisco Amante Lagmay, Alfredo; Moises, Mark Anthony; Delmendo, Patricia; Eneri Tingin, Neil

2015-04-01

Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of people in areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapales, B. J. M.; Mendoza, J.; Uichanco, C.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Moises, M. A.; Delmendo, P.; Tingin, N. E.

2014-12-01

Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

78 FR 7441 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-01

... Online at:'' Link is corrected to read as follows: http://riskmap6.com/Community.aspx?cid=208&sid=4 3. On... ``Maps Available for Inspection Online at:'' Link is corrected to read as follows: http://riskmap6.com... Areas,'' the entry for the ``Maps Available for Inspection Online at:'' Link is corrected to read as...

78 FR 45941 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-30

... (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations) as shown on the indicated Letter of Map Revision (LOMR... Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and in some cases the Flood Insurance Study (FIS) reports, currently in effect... respective Community Map Repository address listed in the table below and online through the FEMA Map Service...

Active, capable, and potentially active faults - a paleoseismic perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machette, M.N.

2000-01-01

Maps of faults (geologically defined source zones) may portray seismic hazards in a wide range of completeness depending on which types of faults are shown. Three fault terms - active, capable, and potential - are used in a variety of ways for different reasons or applications. Nevertheless, to be useful for seismic-hazards analysis, fault maps should encompass a time interval that includes several earthquake cycles. For example, if the common recurrence in an area is 20,000-50,000 years, then maps should include faults that are 50,000-100,000 years old (two to five typical earthquake cycles), thus allowing for temporal variability in slip rate and recurrence intervals. Conversely, in more active areas such as plate boundaries, maps showing faults that are <10,000 years old should include those with at least 2 to as many as 20 paleoearthquakes. For the International Lithosphere Programs' Task Group II-2 Project on Major Active Faults of the World our maps and database will show five age categories and four slip rate categories that allow one to select differing time spans and activity rates for seismic-hazard analysis depending on tectonic regime. The maps are accompanied by a database that describes evidence for Quaternary faulting, geomorphic expression, and paleoseismic parameters (slip rate, recurrence interval and time of most recent surface faulting). These maps and databases provide an inventory of faults that would be defined as active, capable, and potentially active for seismic-hazard assessments.

Documentation for the Southeast Asia seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Haller, Kathleen; Dewey, James; Luco, Nicolas; Crone, Anthony; Lidke, David; Rukstales, Kenneth

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project originated in response to the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake (M9.2) and the resulting tsunami that caused significant casualties and economic losses in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. During the course of this project, several great earthquakes ruptured subduction zones along the southern coast of Indonesia (fig. 1) causing additional structural damage and casualties in nearby communities. Future structural damage and societal losses from large earthquakes can be mitigated by providing an advance warning of tsunamis and introducing seismic hazard provisions in building codes that allow buildings and structures to withstand strong ground shaking associated with anticipated earthquakes. The Southeast Asia Seismic Hazard Project was funded through a United States Agency for International Development (USAID)—Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System to develop seismic hazard maps that would assist engineers in designing buildings that will resist earthquake strong ground shaking. An important objective of this project was to discuss regional hazard issues with building code officials, scientists, and engineers in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The code communities have been receptive to these discussions and are considering updating the Thailand and Indonesia building codes to incorporate new information (for example, see notes from Professor Panitan Lukkunaprasit, Chulalongkorn University in Appendix A).

Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey.

PubMed

Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

2016-10-01

The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

Maritime Tsunami Hazard Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.

2012-12-01

The California tsunami program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Basin resonance and geometric amplification are two reasonably well understood mechanisms for local magnification of tsunami impact in harbors, and are generally the mechanisms investigated when estimating the tsunami hazard potential in a port or harbor. On the other hand, our understanding of and predictive ability for currents is lacking. When a free surface flow is forced through a geometric constriction, it is readily expected that the enhanced potential gradient will drive strong, possibly unstable currents and the associated turbulent coherent structures such as "jets" and "whirlpools"; a simple example would be tidal flow through an inlet channel. However, these fundamentals have not been quantitatively connected with respect to understanding tsunami hazards in ports and harbors. A plausible explanation for this oversight is the observation that these features are turbulent phenomena with spatial and temporal scales much smaller than that of a typical tsunami. The ability to model and then validate these currentsdissect them has only recently become available through the evaluation of dozens of eyewitness accounts and hundreds of videos.developed. In this presentation, we will present ongoing work related to the application of such models to quantify the maritime tsunami hazard in select ports and harbors in California. The development of current-based tsunami hazard maps and safe-offshore-depth delineations will be discussed. We will also present an overview of the challenges in modeling tsunami currents, including capture of turbulent dynamics, coupling with tides, and issues with long-duration simulations. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Lane, Emily; Gillibrand, Philip

2013-09-01

Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.

Microzonation Studies In District of Dikili, Izmir (Turkey) In The Context of Social Responsibility by Using GIS Tecniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabulut, Savas; Cinku, Mualla; Tezel, Okan; Hisarli, Mumtaz; Ozcep, Ferhat; Tun, Muammer; Avdan, Ugur; Ozel, Oguz; Acikca, Ahmet; Aygordu, Ozan; Benli, Aral; Kesisyan, Arda; Yilmaz, Hakan; Varici, Cagri; Ozturkan, Hasan; Ozcan, Cuneyt; Kivrak, Ali

2015-04-01

Social Responsibility Projects (SRP) are important tools in contributing to the development of communities and applied educational science. Researchers dealing with engineering studies generally focus on technical specifications. However, when the subject depends on earthquake, engineers should be consider also social and educational components, besides the technical aspects. If scientific projects collaborated with municipalities of cities, it should be known that it will reach a wide range of people. Turkey is one of the most active region that experienced destructive earthquakes. The 1999 Marmara earthquake was responsible for the loose of more than 18.000 people. The destructive damage occurred on buildings that made on problematic soils. This however, is still the one of most important issues in Turkey which needs to be solved. Inspite of large earthquakes that occurred along the major segments of the North and East Anatolian Fault Zones due to the northwards excursion of Anatolia, the extensional regime in the Aegean region is also characterized by earthquakes that occurred with the movement of a number of strike slip and normal faults. The Dikili village within the Eastern Aegean extensional region experienced a large earthquake in 1939 (M: 6.8). The seismic activity is still characterised by high level and being detected. A lot of areas like the Kabakum village have been moved to its present location during this earthquake. The probability of an earthquake hazard in Dikili is considerably high level, today. Therefore, it is very important to predict the soil behaviour and engineering problems by using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools in this area. For this purpose we conducted a project with the collaboration of the Dikili Municipality in İzmir (Turkey) to determine the following issues: a) Possible disaster mitigation as a result of earthquake-soil-structure interaction, b) Geo-enginnering problems (i.e: soil liquefaction, soil settlement, soil bearing capacity, soil amplification), c) The basin structure and possible fault of the Dikili district, d) Risk analysis on cultivated areas due to salty water injection, e) The tectonic activity of the study area from Miocene to present. During this study a number of measurements were carried out to solve the problems defined above. These measurements include; microtremor single station (H/V) method according to Nakamura's technique, which is applied at 222 points. The results provide maps of soil fundamental frequency, soil amplification and soil sedimentary thickness by using developed amprical relationships. Spatial Autocorrelation Technique (SPAC) was carried out in 11 sites with Guralp CG-5 seismometer to predict the shear wave velocity-depth model towards the sismological bedrock. Multi-channel analysis of Surface Wave (MASW), Microtremor Array Method (MAM) and Seismic Refraction Method were applied at 121 sites with SARA-Doremi Seismograph. The soil liquefaction-induced settlements are determined in the frame of shallow soil engineering problems. Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) was carried out to define the presence of saltly and drinkable and hot/cold underground water, the location of possible faults and the bedrock depth which was estimated with a Scientrex Saris Resistivity Equipment. To define the areas which are influenced by salty water, induced polarization (IP) method was applied at 34 sites. The basin structure and the probably faults of the study area were determined by applying gravity measurements on 248 points with a CG-5 Autogravity meter. Evaluation of the combined data is very important for producing microzonation maps. We therefore integrated all of the data into the GIS database and prepared large variety of maps.

Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.

2018-04-01

Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

Liquefaction processes and systems and liquefaction process intermediate compositions

DOEpatents

Schmidt, Andrew J.; Hart, Todd R.; Billing, Justin M.; Maupin, Gary D.; Hallen, Richard T.; Anderson, Daniel B.

2014-07-12

Liquefaction processes are provided that can include: providing a biomass slurry solution having a temperature of at least 300.degree. C. at a pressure of at least 2000 psig; cooling the solution to a temperature of less than 150.degree. C.; and depressurizing the solution to release carbon dioxide from the solution and form at least part of a bio-oil foam. Liquefaction processes are also provided that can include: filtering the biomass slurry to remove particulates; and cooling and depressurizing the filtered solution to form the bio-oil foam. Liquefaction systems are provided that can include: a heated biomass slurry reaction zone maintained above 300.degree. C. and at least 2000 psig and in continuous fluid communication with a flash cooling/depressurization zone maintained below 150.degree. C. and between about 125 psig and about atmospheric pressure. Liquefaction systems are also provided that can include a foam/liquid separation system. Liquefaction process intermediate compositions are provided that can include a bio-oil foam phase separated from an aqueous biomass solids solution.

Evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil based on standard penetration test using multi-gene genetic programming model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muduli, Pradyut; Das, Sarat

2014-06-01

This paper discusses the evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil based on standard penetration test (SPT) dataset using evolutionary artificial intelligence technique, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP). The liquefaction classification accuracy (94.19%) of the developed liquefaction index (LI) model is found to be better than that of available artificial neural network (ANN) model (88.37%) and at par with the available support vector machine (SVM) model (94.19%) on the basis of the testing data. Further, an empirical equation is presented using MGGP to approximate the unknown limit state function representing the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) of soil based on developed LI model. Using an independent database of 227 cases, the overall rates of successful prediction of occurrence of liquefaction and non-liquefaction are found to be 87, 86, and 84% by the developed MGGP based model, available ANN and the statistical models, respectively, on the basis of calculated factor of safety (F s) against the liquefaction occurrence.

A study of the efficiency of hydrogen liquefaction. [jet aircraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, C. R.; Shaner, R. L.

1976-01-01

The search for an environmentally acceptable fuel to eventually replace petroleum-based fuels for long-range jet aircraft has singled out liquid hydrogen as an outstanding candidate. Hydrogen liquefaction is discussed, along with the effect of several operating parameters on process efficiency. A feasible large-scale commercial hydrogen liquefaction facility based on the results of the efficiency study is described. Potential future improvements in hydrogen liquefaction are noted.

Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

2016-10-01

The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

Geological occurrence response to trace elemental migration in coal liquefaction based on SPSS: take no. 11 coalbed in Antaibao mine for example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Xiaohong; Qin, Yong; Yang, Weifeng

2013-03-01

Coal liquefaction is an adoptable method to transfer the solid fossil energy into liquid oil in large scale, but the dirty material in which will migrate to different step of liquefaction. The migration rule of some trace elements is response to the react activity of macerals in coal and the geological occurrence of the element nature of itself. In this paper, from the SPSS data correlation analysis and hierarchical clustering dendrogram about the trace elements with macerals respond to coal liquefaction yield, it shows the trace elements in No.11 Antaibao coal seam originated from some of lithophile and sulphophle elements. Correlation coefficient between liquefaction yield of three organic macerals and migration of the elements in liquefaction residue indicated that the lithophile are easy to transfer to residue, while sulphophle are apt to in the liquid products. The activated macerals are response to sulphophle trace elements. The conclusion is useful to the coal blending and environmental effects on coal direct liquefaction.

Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez, F.I.; Titov, V.V.; Mofjeld, H.O.; Venturato, A.J.; Simmons, R.S.; Hansen, R.; Combellick, Rodney; Eisner, R.K.; Hoirup, D.F.; Yanagi, B.S.; Yong, S.; Darienzo, M.; Priest, G.R.; Crawford, G.L.; Walsh, T.J.

2005-01-01

The Hazard Assessment component of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program has completed 22 modeling efforts covering 113 coastal communities with an estimated population of 1.2 million residents that are at risk. Twenty-three evacuation maps have also been completed. Important improvements in organizational structure have been made with the addition of two State geotechnical agency representatives to Steering Group membership, and progress has been made on other improvements suggested by program reviewers. ?? Springer 2005.

Seismic hazard of American Samoa and neighboring South Pacific Islands--methods, data, parameters, and results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Mueller, Charles S.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Luco, Nicolas; Walling, Melanie

2012-01-01

American Samoa and the neighboring islands of the South Pacific lie near active tectonic-plate boundaries that host many large earthquakes which can result in strong earthquake shaking and tsunamis. To mitigate earthquake risks from future ground shaking, the Federal Emergency Management Agency requested that the U.S. Geological Survey prepare seismic hazard maps that can be applied in building-design criteria. This Open-File Report describes the data, methods, and parameters used to calculate the seismic shaking hazard as well as the output hazard maps, curves, and deaggregation (disaggregation) information needed for building design. Spectral acceleration hazard for 1 Hertz having a 2-percent probability of exceedance on a firm rock site condition (Vs30=760 meters per second) is 0.12 acceleration of gravity (1 second, 1 Hertz) and 0.32 acceleration of gravity (0.2 seconds, 5 Hertz) on American Samoa, 0.72 acceleration of gravity (1 Hertz) and 2.54 acceleration of gravity (5 Hertz) on Tonga, 0.15 acceleration of gravity (1 Hertz) and 0.55 acceleration of gravity (5 Hertz) on Fiji, and 0.89 acceleration of gravity (1 Hertz) and 2.77 acceleration of gravity (5 Hertz) on the Vanuatu Islands.

Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Constantinescu, Robert; Biass, Sébastien; Tonini, Roberto

2014-02-01

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.

GIS data for the Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study to modernize FEMA flood hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Florence L.; Venturato, Angie J.; Geist, Eric L.

2007-01-01

A Tsunami Pilot Study was conducted for the area surrounding the coastal town of Seaside, Oregon, as part of the Federal Emergency Management's (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Map Modernization Program (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Cascadia subduction zone extends from Cape Mendocino, California, to Vancouver Island, Canada. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities subject to tsunamis generated by far- and near-field (Cascadia) earthquakes. Two goals of the pilot study were to develop probabilistic 100-year and 500-year tsunami inundation maps using Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) and to provide recommendations for improving tsunami hazard assessment guidelines for FEMA and state and local agencies. The study was an interagency effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, and FEMA, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. The pilot study model data and results are published separately as a geographic information systems (GIS) data report (Wong and others, 2006). The flood maps and GIS data are briefly described here.

Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

2013-01-01

scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation “playbook” maps and guidance in-harbor hazard maps and offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation during future distant source events; “probability-based” products for land-use planning under the California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act; and an expansion of real-time and post-tsunami field reconnaissance teams and information sharing through a state-wide clearinghouse. The state tsunami program has benefitted greatly from participation in the SAFRR tsunami scenario process, and hopes to continue this relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey to help improve tsunami preparedness in California.

Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume relative to the previous year. These results imply that such hazard maps have the potential to be valuable tools for policy makers and regulators in managing the seismic risks associated with unconventional oil and gas production.

Predicted liquefaction of East Bay fills during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, T.L.; Blair, J.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.

2006-01-01

Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M ??? 7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Methods of natural gas liquefaction and natural gas liquefaction plants utilizing multiple and varying gas streams

DOEpatents

Wilding, Bruce M; Turner, Terry D

2014-12-02

A method of natural gas liquefaction may include cooling a gaseous NG process stream to form a liquid NG process stream. The method may further include directing the first tail gas stream out of a plant at a first pressure and directing a second tail gas stream out of the plant at a second pressure. An additional method of natural gas liquefaction may include separating CO.sub.2 from a liquid NG process stream and processing the CO.sub.2 to provide a CO.sub.2 product stream. Another method of natural gas liquefaction may include combining a marginal gaseous NG process stream with a secondary substantially pure NG stream to provide an improved gaseous NG process stream. Additionally, a NG liquefaction plant may include a first tail gas outlet, and at least a second tail gas outlet, the at least a second tail gas outlet separate from the first tail gas outlet.

Communicating landslide risk by combining hazard and open infrastructure data in interactive visualizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tost, Jordi; Olen, Stephanie M.; Bookhagen, Bodo; Heidmann, Frank

2017-04-01

The DIGENTI project ("DIGitaler ENtscheiderTIsch für das Naturgefahrenmanagement auf Basis von Satellitendaten und Volunteered Geographic Information") has the goal of quantifying and communicating the threat of natural hazards in the Cesar and La Guajira departments of northeast Colombia. The end-goal of the project is to provide an interactive guide for policy and decision makers, and for disaster relief coordination. Over the last years, abundant research has been done in order to analyze risk and to provide relevant information that improves effectiveness in disaster management. The communication of natural hazards risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of hazard maps. In the context of landslides, hazard maps are used to depict potential danger from landslides and visualize the possibility of future landsliding throughout a given area. Such hazard maps provide a static snapshot of the local estimated threat in a region. However, in mountainous regions, a sufficiently large landslide in remote mountainous areas may represent a potential threat to settlements located downstream of a landslide event. The research presented here proposes an approach to visualize and interactively explore landslide risk by combining static hazard maps, hydrologic networks, and OpenStreetMap data. We estimated the potential for hillslope instabilities scenarios in the region of interest by using the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate a suite Factor of Safety (FOS) maps. The FOS estimates the ratio of total resisting and driving forces to hillslope mass movements. By combining the World DEM with other environmental data (e.g., the Harmonized World Soil Database), we were able to create a suite of high-resolution landslide potential maps for the region of interest. The suite of FOS maps are calculated based on user-selectable parameters (e.g, total mass sliding thickness) that are not well constrained by field observations. We additionally use the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate the hydrologic network for our study area. This allows not only to delineate the stream network, but also to calculate the area upstream of settlements located near rivers or streams that may be impacted by distal landsliding. By integrating the potential landslide hazard in the upstream area, we create a more robust threat estimate for vulnerable settlements. Disaster relief is not only affected by the physical consequences of a hazardous event, but also by the area's accessibility and mobility capability for internal displacements. We therefore also estimate the threat along roads and to other infrastructure (e.g. bridges). Decisions based on the area's road network have to be constantly taken, for instance, to send rescue teams or to coordinate humanitarian logistics. With our approach, we are able to identify critical spots along roads with high likelihood of getting damaged. Furthermore, given a particular potential landslide location and the calculation of its downstream hydrologic network, it is possible to estimate which settlements, roads or bridges may be at risk. This approach could be integrated into flooding early warning systems and into the disaster management response phase to foresee dangers and losses and plan evacuations on time.

Two-stage coal liquefaction without gas-phase hydrogen

DOEpatents

Stephens, H.P.

1986-06-05

A process is provided for the production of a hydrogen-donor solvent useful in the liquefaction of coal, wherein the water-gas shift reaction is used to produce hydrogen while simultaneously hydrogenating a donor solvent. A process for the liquefaction of coal using said solvent is also provided. The process enables avoiding the use of a separate water-gas shift reactor as well as high pressure equipment for liquefaction. 3 tabs.

Liquefaction of the Used Creosote-Treated Wood in the Presence of Phenol and Its Application to Phenolic Resin

Treesearch

Nubuo Shiraishi; Chung-Yun Hse

2000-01-01

A limited initial study was made to evaluate liquefaction of creosote-treated southern pine wood sawdust with liquefaction of birch wood powder as a control. The objective was to assess the feasibility of using creosote-treated southern pine wood as a raw material for the-formulation-of-phenol-based resin adhesives. The liquefaction was conducted in the presence of...

44 CFR 65.12 - Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed encroachments. 65.12 Section 65.12... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL...

A case study of liquefaction risk analysis based on the thickness and depth of the liquefaction layer using CPT and electric resistivity data in the Hinode area, Itako City, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jinguuji, Motoharu; Toprak, Selcuk

2017-12-01

The Hinode area of Itako City in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, suffered some of the most severe liquefaction damage of any areas in the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake in 2011. This liquefaction damage has been investigated by Itako City, as well as by universities and research institutes in Japan. The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) has carried out numerous investigations along the Tone River, and in particular, intensive surveys were done in the Hinode area. We have conducted a risk analysis based on the thickness and depth of the liquefaction layer measured using cone penetration testing (CPT) data and electric resistivity data obtained in the Hinode area. The distribution of the risk estimated from CPT at 143 points, and that obtained from analysis of the resistivity survey data, agreed with the distribution of actual damage. We also carried out conventional risk analyses method using the liquefaction resistance factor (FL) and liquefaction potential index (PL) methods with CPT data. The results show high PL values over the entire area, but their distribution did not agree well with actual damage in some parts of the study area. Because the analysis of the thickness and depth of the liquefaction layer, using geophysical prospecting methods, can cover a widespread area, this method will be very useful in investigating liquefaction risk, especially for gas and water pipelines.

Experimental study on the liquefaction of cellulose in supercritical ethanol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jinxing; Liu, Xinyuan; Bao, Zhenbo

2018-03-01

Cellulose is the major composition of solid waste for producing biofuel; cellulose liquefaction is helpful for realizing biomass supercritical liquefaction process. This paper is taking supercritical ethanol as the medium, liquefied cellulose with the intermittence installation of high press cauldron. Experiments have studied technical condition and the technology parameter of cellulose liquefaction in supercritical ethanol, and the pyrolysis mechanism was analysed based on the pyrolysis product. Results show that cellulose can be liquefied, can get good effect through appropriate technology condition. Under not catalyst, highest liquefaction rate of cellulose can reach 73.5%. The composition of the pyrolysis product was determined by GC-MS.

Disseminating Landslide Hazard Information for California Local Government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, C. J.

2010-12-01

Since 1969, the California Geological Survey has produced numerous maps showing landslide features and delineating potential slope-stability problem areas. These maps have been provided to local governments to encourage consideration of landslide hazards in planning and development decisions. Maps produced from 1986 through 1995 under the Landslide Hazard Mapping Act were advisory only, and their use by local government was never consistent. By contrast, maps of Zones of Required Investigation for seismically induced landslides produced under the Seismic Hazard Zoning Act since 1997 come with detailed guidelines and legal requirements. A legislative act that required landslide hazards be mapped and hazard maps disseminated to local government proved ineffective in landslide hazard mitigation. A later act with requirements that the hazard zone maps be used by local government proved more effective. Planning scenarios have proven to be an effective way of transmitting scientific information about natural hazards to emergency response professionals. Numerous earthquake planning scenarios have been prepared and used as the basis for emergency response exercises. An advantage of scenarios that include loss estimates is that the effects can be put in units of measure that everyone understands, principally deaths and dollars. HAZUS software available from FEMA allows calculation of losses for earthquake scenarios, but similar methods for landslides have not been developed. As part of the USGS Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project, we have estimated the landslide losses for a major west-coast winter storm scenario by developing a system based loosely on HAZUS. Data on landslide damage in past storms has been sparse and inconsistent, but a few data sets are available. The most detailed and complete available data on landslide damage was gathered by the City of Los Angeles following the 1978 storms. We extrapolate from that data to the entire state by first generalizing a landslide susceptibility map to give a single value of susceptibility for each census tract. We then calculated the loss ratio, the cost of landslide damage from the 1978 storms divided by the value of light wood frame structures in the census tract. The comparison suggests three general categories of damage: tracts with low landslide susceptibility have no landslide damage: tracts with moderate susceptibility have loss ratios of about 0.016%: and tracts with high susceptibility have loss ratios of 0.096%. Using these values, the susceptibility map becomes a landslide loss ratio map for the average storm intensity and landslide vulnerability of Los Angeles in 1978. Generalization to other storm intensities uses differences in storm intensity and landslide damage data from the 1982 storm in the Bay Area. In Santa Cruz County, that storm had a recurrence interval of over 100 years, and over 3 times the damage as our projection from the 1978 data. In Sonoma County, that storm had a recurrence interval of only 10 years and damage that was only 2% of our projection. If a relationship between storm intensity and the projections from the 1978 Los Angeles data can be developed, we may be able to estimate landslide losses for any projected storm intensity.

Liquefaction of calcium-containing subbituminous coals and coals of lower rank

DOEpatents

Gorbaty, Martin L.; Taunton, John W.

1980-01-01

A process for the treatment of a calcium-containing subbituminous coal and coals of lower rank to form insoluble, thermally stable calcium salts which remain within the solids portions of the residue on liquefaction of the coal, thereby suppressing the formation scale, made up largely of calcium carbonate deposits, e.g., vaterite, which normally forms within the coal liquefaction reactor (i.e., coal liquefaction zone), e.g., on reactor surfaces, lines, auxiliary equipment and the like. A solution of a compound or salt characterized by the formula MX, where M is a Group IA metal of the Periodic Table of the Elements, and X is an anion which is capable of forming water-insoluble, thermally stable calcium compounds, is maintained in contact with a particulate coal feed sufficient to impregnate said salt or compound into the pores of the coal. On separation of the impregnated particulate coal from the solution, the coal can be liquefied in a coal liquefaction reactor (reaction zone) at coal liquefaction conditions without significant formation of vaterite or other forms of calcium carbonate on reactor surfaces, auxiliary equipment and the like; and the Group IA metal which remains within the liquefaction bottoms catalyzes the reaction when the liquefaction bottoms are subjected to a gasification reaction.

Landing Site Dispersion Analysis and Statistical Assessment for the Mars Phoenix Lander

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonfiglio, Eugene P.; Adams, Douglas; Craig, Lynn; Spencer, David A.; Strauss, William; Seelos, Frank P.; Seelos, Kimberly D.; Arvidson, Ray; Heet, Tabatha

2008-01-01

The Mars Phoenix Lander launched on August 4, 2007 and successfully landed on Mars 10 months later on May 25, 2008. Landing ellipse predicts and hazard maps were key in selecting safe surface targets for Phoenix. Hazard maps were based on terrain slopes, geomorphology maps and automated rock counts of MRO's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images. The expected landing dispersion which led to the selection of Phoenix's surface target is discussed as well as the actual landing dispersion predicts determined during operations in the weeks, days, and hours before landing. A statistical assessment of these dispersions is performed, comparing the actual landing-safety probabilities to criteria levied by the project. Also discussed are applications for this statistical analysis which were used by the Phoenix project. These include using the statistical analysis used to verify the effectiveness of a pre-planned maneuver menu and calculating the probability of future maneuvers.

Advanced Hydrogen Liquefaction Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwartz, Joseph; Kromer, Brian; Neu, Ben

2011-09-28

The project identified and quantified ways to reduce the cost of hydrogen liquefaction, and reduce the cost of hydrogen distribution. The goal was to reduce the power consumption by 20% and then to reduce the capital cost. Optimizing the process, improving process equipment, and improving ortho-para conversion significantly reduced the power consumption of liquefaction, but by less than 20%. Because the efficiency improvement was less than the target, the program was stopped before the capital cost was addressed. These efficiency improvements could provide a benefit to the public to improve the design of future hydrogen liquefiers. The project increased themore » understanding of hydrogen liquefaction by modeling different processes and thoroughly examining ortho-para separation and conversion. The process modeling provided a benefit to the public because the project incorporated para hydrogen into the process modeling software, so liquefaction processes can be modeled more accurately than using only normal hydrogen. Adding catalyst to the first heat exchanger, a simple method to reduce liquefaction power, was identified, analyzed, and quantified. The demonstrated performance of ortho-para separation is sufficient for at least one identified process concept to show reduced power cost when compared to hydrogen liquefaction processes using conventional ortho-para conversion. The impact of improved ortho-para conversion can be significant because ortho para conversion uses about 20-25% of the total liquefaction power, but performance improvement is necessary to realize a substantial benefit. Most of the energy used in liquefaction is for gas compression. Improvements in hydrogen compression will have a significant impact on overall liquefier efficiency. Improvements to turbines, heat exchangers, and other process equipment will have less impact.« less

Hydrogen Transfer during Liquefaction of Elbistan Lignite to Biomass; Total Reaction Transformation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koyunoglu, Cemil; Karaca, Hüseyin

2017-12-01

Given the high cost of the tetraline solvent commonly used in liquefaction, the use of manure with EL is an important factor when considering the high cost of using tetraline as a hydrogen transfer source. In addition, due to the another cost factor which is the catalyst prices, red mud (commonly used, produced as a byproduct in the production of aluminium) is reduced cost in the work of liquefaction of coal, biomass, even coal combined biomass, corresponding that making the EL liquefaction an agenda for our country is another important factor. Conditions for liquefaction experiments conducted for hydrogen transfer from manure to coal; Catalyst concentration of 9%, liquid/solid ratio of 3/1, reaction time of 60 min, fertilizer/lignite ratio of 1/3, and the reaction temperature of 400 °C, the stirred speed of 400 rpm and the initial nitrogen pressure of 20 bar was fixed. In order to demonstrate the hydrogen, transfer from manure to coal, coal is used solely, by using tetraline (also known as a hydrogen carrier) and distilled water which is not hydrogen donor as a solvent in the co-liquefaction of experiments, and also the liquefaction conditions are carried out under an inert (N2) gas atmosphere. According to the results of the obtained liquefaction test; using tetraline solvent the total liquid product conversion percentage of the oil + gas conversion was 38.3 %, however, the results of oil+gas conversion obtained using distilled water and EL combined with manure the total liquid product conversion percentage was 7.4 %. According to the results of calorific value and elemental analysis, only the ratio of (H/C)atomic of coal obtained by using tetraline increased with the liquefaction of manure and distilled water. The reason of the increase in the amount of hydrogen due to hydrogen transfer from the manure on the solid surface of the coal, and also on the surface of the inner pore of the coal during the liquefaction, brings about the evaluation of the coal as a structure involved in the recycling through the liquefaction plant if it is being installed. As a result of this study, results obtained from oil + gas data shows that when distilled water is used instead of tetraline during liquefaction of EL combined with manure, abundant crude hydrogen transfer takes place not because of using distilled water as a solvent but only with manure considered as a hydrogen sources. Furthermore, while adding manure into coal of liquefaction is also an alternative for current oil production.

Age and significance of earthquake-induced liquefaction near Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clague, J.J.; Naesgaard, E.; Nelson, A.R.

1997-01-01

In late 1994, sand dykes, large sand blows, and deformed strata were exposed in the walls of an excavation at Annacis Island on the Fraser River delta near Vancouver, British Columbia. The features record liquefaction during a large earthquake about 1700 years ago; this was perhaps the largest earthquake to affect the Vancouver area in the last 3500 years. Similar, less well-dated features have been reported from several other sites on the Fraser delta and may be products of the same earthquake. Three radiocarbon ages that closely delimit the time of liquefaction on Annacis Island are similar to the most precise radiocarbon ages on coseismically subsided marsh soils at estuaries in southern Washington and Oregon. Both the liquefaction and the subsidence may have been produced by a single great plate-boundary earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone. Alternatively, liquefaction at Annacis Island may have been caused by a large crustal or subcrustal earthquake of about the same age as a plate-boundary earthquake farther west. The data from Annacis Island and other sites on the Fraser delta suggest that earthquakes capable of producing extensive liquefaction in this area are rare events. Further, liquefaction analysis using historical seismicity suggests that current assessment procedures may overestimate liquefaction risk.

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

2017-08-01

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

Study on Correlation Between Shear Wave Velocity and Ground Properties for Ground Liquefaction Investigation of Silts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che, Ailan; Luo, Xianqi; Qi, Jinghua; Wang, Deyong

Shear wave velocity (Vs) of soil is one of the key parameters used in assessment of liquefaction potential of saturated soils in the base with leveled ground surface; determination of shear module of soils used in seismic response analyses. Such parameter can be experimentally obtained from laboratory soil tests and field measurements. Statistical relation of shear wave velocity with soil properties based on the surface wave survey investigation, and resonant column triaxial tests, which are taken from more than 14 sites within the depth of 10 m under ground surface, is obtained in Tianjin (China) area. The relationship between shear wave velocity and the standard penetration test N value (SPT-N value) of silt and clay in the quaternary formation are summarized. It is an important problem to research the effect of shear wave velocity on liquefaction resistance of saturated silts (sandy loams) for evaluating liquefaction resistance. According the results of cyclic triaxial tests, a correlation between liquefaction resistance and shear wave velocity is presented. The results are useful for ground liquefaction investigation and the evaluation of liquefaction resistance.

Probabilistic liquefaction triggering based on the cone penetration test

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, R.E.S.; Seed, R.B.; Kayen, R.E.; Stewart, J.P.; Tokimatsu, K.

2005-01-01

Performance-based earthquake engineering requires a probabilistic treatment of potential failure modes in order to accurately quantify the overall stability of the system. This paper is a summary of the application portions of the probabilistic liquefaction triggering correlations proposed recently proposed by Moss and co-workers. To enable probabilistic treatment of liquefaction triggering, the variables comprising the seismic load and the liquefaction resistance were treated as inherently uncertain. Supporting data from an extensive Cone Penetration Test (CPT)-based liquefaction case history database were used to develop a probabilistic correlation. The methods used to measure the uncertainty of the load and resistance variables, how the interactions of these variables were treated using Bayesian updating, and how reliability analysis was applied to produce curves of equal probability of liquefaction are presented. The normalization for effective overburden stress, the magnitude correlated duration weighting factor, and the non-linear shear mass participation factor used are also discussed.

A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking recurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.

2015-12-01

Different earthquake hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence rate of larger sporadic earthquakes may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound recurrence estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their recurrence. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of earthquake scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario earthquakes (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for recurrence has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a recurrence estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding recurrences. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.

Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.

1999-01-01

Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local government, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

Mapping polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and total toxicity equivalent soil concentrations by visible and near-infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Okparanma, Reuben N; Coulon, Frederic; Mayr, Thomas; Mouazen, Abdul M

2014-09-01

In this study, we used data from spectroscopic models based on visible and near-infrared (vis-NIR; 350-2500 nm) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy to develop soil maps of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and total toxicity equivalent concentrations (TTEC) of the PAH mixture. The TTEC maps were then used for hazard assessment of three petroleum release sites in the Niger Delta province of Nigeria (5.317°N, 6.467°E). As the paired t-test revealed, there were non-significant (p > 0.05) differences between soil maps of PAH and TTEC developed with chemically measured and vis-NIR-predicted data. Comparison maps of PAH showed a slight to moderate agreement between measured and predicted data (Kappa coefficient = 0.19-0.56). Using proposed generic assessment criteria, hazard assessment showed that the degree of action for site-specific risk assessment and/or remediation is similar for both measurement methods. This demonstrates that the vis-NIR method may be useful for monitoring hydrocarbon contamination in a petroleum release site. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Direct catalytic hydrothermal liquefaction of spirulina to biofuels with hydrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Qin; Liao, Hansheng; Zhou, Shiqin; Li, Qiuping; Wang, Lu; Yu, Zhihao; Jing, Li

2018-01-01

We report herein on acquiring biofuels from direct catalytic hydrothermal liquefaction of spirulina. The component of bio-oil from direct catalytic hydrothermal liquefaction was similar to that from two independent processes (including liquefaction and upgrading of biocrude). However, one step process has higher carbon recovery, due to the less loss of carbons. It was demonstrated that the yield and HHV of bio-oil from direct catalytic algae with hydrothermal condition is higher than that from two independent processes.

Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2016-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2016-04-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Coastal Vulnerability to Erosion Processes: Study Cases from Different Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martinez Del Pozo, Jose Angel; Rangel-Buitrago, Nelson

2010-05-01

When natural processes affect or threaten human activities or infrastructures they become a natural hazard. In order to prevent the natural hazards impact and the associated economic and human losses, coastal managers need to know the intrinsic vulnerability of the littoral, using information on the physical and ecological coastal features, human occupation and present and future shoreline trends. The prediction of future coastline positions can be based on the study of coastal changes which have occurred over recent decades. Vertical aerial photographs, satellite imagery and maps are very useful data sources for the reconstruction of coast line changes at long (>60 years) and medium (between 60 and 10 years) temporal and spatial scales. Vulnerability maps have been obtained for several coastal sectors around the world through the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS), computer-assisted multivariate analysis and numerical models. In the USA, "Flood Insurance Rate Maps" have been created by the government and "Coastal Zone Hazard Maps" have been prepared for coastal stretches affected by hurricane Hugo. In Spain, the vulnerability of the Ebro and an Andalusia coastal sector were investigated over different time scales. McLaughlin et al., (2002) developed a GIS based coastal vulnerability index for the Northern Ireland littoral that took into account socio-economic activities and coastal resistance to erosion and energetic characteristics. Lizárraga et al., (2001) combined beach reduction at Rosario (Mexico) with the probability of damage to landward structures, obtaining a vulnerability matrix. In this work several coastal vulnerability maps have also been created by comparing data on coastal erosion/accretion and land use along different coastal sectors in Italy, Morocco and Colombia. Keywords: Hazard, Vulnerability, Coastal Erosion, Italy, Morocco, Colombia.

Probabilistic Hazard Estimation at a Densely Urbanised Area: the Neaples Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Natale, G.; Mastrolorenzo, G.; Panizza, A.; Pappalardo, L.; Claudia, T.

2005-12-01

The Neaples volcanic area (Southern Italy), including Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island, is the highest risk one in the World, where more than 2 million people live within about 10 km from an active volcanic vent. Such an extreme risk calls for accurate methodologies aimed to quantify it, in a probabilistic way, considering all the available volcanological information as well as modelling results. In fact, simple hazard maps based on the observation of deposits from past eruptions have the major problem that eruptive history generally samples a very limited number of possible outcomes, thus resulting almost meaningless to get the event probability in the area. This work describes a methodology making the best use (from a Bayesian point of view) of volcanological data and modelling results, to compute probabilistic hazard maps from multi-vent explosive eruptions. The method, which follows an approach recently developed by the same authors for pyroclastic flows hazard, has been here improved and extended to compute also fall-out hazard. The application of the method to the Neapolitan volcanic area, including the densely populated city of Naples, allows, for the first time, to get a global picture of the areal distribution for the main hazards from multi-vent explosive eruptions. From a joint consideration of the hazard contributions from all the three volcanic areas, new insight on the volcanic hazard distribution emerges, which will have strong implications for urban and emergency planning in the area.

PyBetVH: A Python tool for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and for generation of Bayesian hazard curves and maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Anne Thompson, Mary

2015-06-01

PyBetVH is a completely new, free, open-source and cross-platform software implementation of the Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH), a tool for estimating the probability of any magmatic hazardous phenomenon occurring in a selected time frame, accounting for all the uncertainties. New capabilities of this implementation include the ability to calculate hazard curves which describe the distribution of the exceedance probability as a function of intensity (e.g., tephra load) on a grid of points covering the target area. The computed hazard curves are (i) absolute (accounting for the probability of eruption in a given time frame, and for all the possible vent locations and eruptive sizes) and (ii) Bayesian (computed at different percentiles, in order to quantify the epistemic uncertainty). Such curves allow representation of the full information contained in the probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) and are well suited to become a main input to quantitative risk analyses. PyBetVH allows for interactive visualization of both the computed hazard curves, and the corresponding Bayesian hazard/probability maps. PyBetVH is designed to minimize the efforts of end users, making PVHA results accessible to people who may be less experienced in probabilistic methodologies, e.g. decision makers. The broad compatibility of Python language has also allowed PyBetVH to be installed on the VHub cyber-infrastructure, where it can be run online or downloaded at no cost. PyBetVH can be used to assess any type of magmatic hazard from any volcano. Here we illustrate how to perform a PVHA through PyBetVH using the example of analyzing tephra fallout from the Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC), New Zealand, and highlight the range of outputs that the tool can generate.

46 CFR 148.450 - Cargoes subject to liquefaction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... in this section— (1) Cargo subject to liquefaction means a material that is subject to moisture migration and subsequent liquefaction if shipped with moisture content in excess of the transportable moisture limit. (2) Moisture migration is the movement of moisture by settling and consolidation of a...

Lignocellulose Liquefaction to Biocrude: A Tutorial Review

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Abstract After 40 years of research and development, liquefaction technologies are now being demonstrated at 200–3000 tons per year scale to convert lignocellulosic biomass to biocrudes for use as heavy fuel or for upgrading to biofuels. This Review attempts to present the various facets of the liquefaction process in a tutorial manner. Emphasis is placed on liquefaction in high‐boiling solvents, with regular reference to liquefaction in subcritical water or other light‐boiling solvents. Reaction chemistry, solvent selection, role of optional catalyst as well as biocrude composition and properties are discussed in depth. Challenges in biomass feeding and options for biocrude–solvent separation are addressed. Process concepts are reviewed and demonstration/commercialization efforts are presented. PMID:29364569

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Sinai Peninsula, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deif, A.; Abou Elenean, K.; El Hadidy, M.; Tealeb, A.; Mohamed, A.

2009-09-01

Sinai experienced the largest Egyptian earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) 7.2 in 1995 in the Gulf of Aqaba, 350 km from Cairo. It is characterized by the presence of many tourist projects in addition to different natural resources. The aim of the current study is to present, for the first time, the probabilistic spectral hazard maps for Sinai. Revised earthquake catalogues for Sinai and its surroundings, from 112 BC to 2006 AD with magnitude equal or greater than 3.0, are used to calculate seismic hazard in the region of interest between 27°N and 31.5°N and 32°E and 36°E. We declustered these catalogues to include only independent events. The catalogues were tested for the completeness of different magnitude ranges. 28 seismic source zones are used to define the seismicity. The recurrence rates and the maximum earthquakes across these zones were also determined from these modified catalogues. Strong ground motion relations for rock are used to produce 5% damped spectral acceleration values for four different periods (0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) to define the uniform response spectra at each site (grid of 0.2° × 0.2° all over the area). Maps showing spectral acceleration values at 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the return period of 475 years (equivalent to 90% probability on non-exceedence in 50 years) are presented. In addition, Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) at 25 different periods for the four main cities (Hurghda, Sharm El-Sheikh, Nuweibaa and Suez) are graphed. The highest hazard is found in the Gulf of Aqaba with maximum spectral accelerations 356 cm s-2 at a period of 0.22 s for a return period of 475 years.

Reassessment of probabilistic seismic hazard in the Marmara region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, Erol; Gulkan, Polat; Yilmaz, Nazan; Çelebi, Mehmet

2009-01-01

In 1999, the eastern coastline of the Marmara region (Turkey) witnessed increased seismic activity on the North Anatolian fault (NAF) system with two damaging earthquakes (M 7.4 Kocaeli and M 7.2 D??zce) that occurred almost three months apart. These events have reduced stress on the western segment of the NAF where it continues under the Marmara Sea. The undersea fault segments have been recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped scientists to understand the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which has remained a perplexing tectonic domain. On the basis of collected new data, seismic hazard of the Marmara region is reassessed using a probabilistic approach. Two different earthquake source models: (1) the smoothed-gridded seismicity model and (2) fault model and alternate magnitude-frequency relations, Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic, were used with local and imported ground-motion-prediction equations. Regional exposure is computed and quantified on a set of hazard maps that provide peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 sec on uniform firm-rock site condition (760 m=sec average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m). These acceleration levels were computed for ground motions having 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yr, corresponding to return periods of about 2475 and 475 yr, respectively. The maximum PGA computed (at rock site) is 1.5g along the fault segments of the NAF zone extending into the Marmara Sea. The new maps generally show 10% to 15% increase for PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 sec spectral acceleration values across much of Marmara compared to previous regional hazard maps. Hazard curves and smooth design spectra for three site conditions: rock, soil, and soft-soil are provided for the Istanbul metropolitan area as possible tools in future risk estimates.

California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bryant, W.A.

2008-01-01

This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

2016-08-01

Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part-I. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, 2002]. Not only holistic treatment of earthquake catalog and seismogenic zones has been performed, but also higher resolution in spatial distribution could be achieved. The COV maps have been provided with the strong ground-motion maps under various conditions to show the confidence in the results obtained. Results obtained in the present study would be helpful for risk assessment and other disaster mitigation-related studies.

Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, Roger D.; Brown, Robert B.; Page, Robert A.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Hendley, James W.

1995-01-01

When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

A probabilistic estimate of maximum acceleration in rock in the contiguous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore; Perkins, David M.

1976-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic estimate of the maximum ground acceleration to be expected from earthquakes occurring in the contiguous United States. It is based primarily upon the historic seismic record which ranges from very incomplete before 1930 to moderately complete after 1960. Geologic data, primarily distribution of faults, have been employed only to a minor extent, because most such data have not been interpreted yet with earthquake hazard evaluation in mind.The map provides a preliminary estimate of the relative hazard in various parts of the country. The report provides a method for evaluating the relative importance of the many parameters and assumptions in hazard analysis. The map and methods of evaluation described reflect the current state of understanding and are intended to be useful for engineering purposes in reducing the effects of earthquakes on buildings and other structures.Studies are underway on improved methods for evaluating the relativ( earthquake hazard of different regions. Comments on this paper are invited to help guide future research and revisions of the accompanying map.The earthquake hazard in the United States has been estimated in a variety of ways since the initial effort by Ulrich (see Roberts and Ulrich, 1950). In general, the earlier maps provided an estimate of the severity of ground shaking or damage but the frequency of occurrence of the shaking or damage was not given. Ulrich's map showed the distribution of expected damage in terms of no damage (zone 0), minor damage (zone 1), moderate damage (zone 2), and major damage (zone 3). The zones were not defined further and the frequency of occurrence of damage was not suggested. Richter (1959) and Algermissen (1969) estimated the ground motion in terms of maximum Modified Mercalli intensity. Richter used the terms "occasional" and "frequent" to characterize intensity IX shaking and Algermissen included recurrence curves for various parts of the country in the paper accompanying his map.The first probabilistic hazard maps covering portions of the United States were by Milne and Davenport (1969a). Recently, Wiggins, Hirshberg and Bronowicki (1974) prepared a probabilistic map of maximum particle velocity and Modified Mercalli intensity for the entire United States. The maps are based on an analysis of the historical seismicity. In general, geological data were not incorporated into the development of the maps.

Integration of advanced preparation with coal liquefaction. Second quarterly technical progress report, January 1-March 31, 1984

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steedman, W.G.; Longanbach, J.R.; Muralidhara, H.S.

Standard reaction conditions of 427 C, 5 minutes reaction time, 2:1 solvent/coal ratio and 1000 psig (r.t.) hydrogen overpressure result in good, but not maximum, conversions to THF soluble with both Illinois No. 6 and Wyodak (upper seam) coals. The cumulative effects of the pretreatment steps were also examined using feedstocks which were dried in a vacuum oven at room temperature under nitrogen before liquefaction to remove the effects of moisture. Chloride removal followed by drying had a positive effect on liquefaction. Oil agglomeration followed by drying also improved liquefaction reactivity significantly. Solvent drying also resulted in a small increasemore » in liquefaction reactivity. The overall reactivity of coal treated in sequence with each pretreatment step was slightly less than that of the dry ground coal. Liquefaction under a high partial pressure of hydrogen sulfide in hydrogen also results in a significant increase in conversion to THF solubles. 1 reference, 12 figures, 7 tables.« less

Use of liquefaction-induced features for paleoseismic analysis - An overview of how seismic liquefaction features can be distinguished from other features and how their regional distribution and properties of source sediment can be used to infer the location and strength of Holocene paleo-earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obermeier, S.F.

1996-01-01

Liquefaction features can be used in many field settings to estimate the recurrence interval and magnitude of strong earthquakes through much of the Holocene. These features include dikes, craters, vented sand, sills, and laterally spreading landslides. The relatively high seismic shaking level required for their formation makes them particularly valuable as records of strong paleo-earthquakes. This state-of-the-art summary for using liquefaction-induced features for paleoseismic interpretation and analysis takes into account both geological and geotechnical engineering perspectives. The driving mechanism for formation of the features is primarily the increased pore-water pressure associated with liquefaction of sand-rich sediment. The role of this mechanism is often supplemented greatly by the direct action of seismic shaking at the ground surface, which strains and breaks the clay-rich cap that lies immediately above the sediment that liquefied. Discussed in the text are the processes involved in formation of the features, as well as their morphology and characteristics in field settings. Whether liquefaction occurs is controlled mainly by sediment grain size, sediment packing, depth to the water table, and strength and duration of seismic shaking. Formation of recognizable features in the field generally requires a low-permeability cap above the sediment that liquefied. Field manifestations are controlled largely by the severity of liquefaction and the thickness and properties of the low-permeability cap. Criteria are presented for determining whether observed sediment deformation in the field originated by seismically induced liquefaction. These criteria have been developed mainly by observing historic effects of liquefaction in varied field settings. The most important criterion is that a seismic liquefaction origin requires widespread, regional development of features around a core area where the effects are most severe. In addition, the features must have a morphology that is consistent with a very sudden application of a large hydraulic force. This article discusses case studies in widely separated and different geological settings: coastal South Carolina, the New Madrid seismic zone, the Wabash Valley seismic zone, and coastal Washington State. These studies encompass most of the range of settings and the types of liquefaction-induced features likely to be encountered anywhere. The case studies describe the observed features and the logic for assigning a seismic liquefaction origin to them. Also discussed are some types of sediment deformations that can be misinterpreted as having a seismic origin. Two independent methods for estimating prehistoric magnitude are discussed briefly. One method is based on determination of the maximum distance from the epicenter over which liquefaction-induced effects have formed. The other method is based on use of geotechnical engineering techniques at sites of marginal liquefaction, in order to bracket the peak accelerations as a function of epicentral distance; these accelerations can then be compared with predictions from seismological models.

Experience in feeding coal into a liquefaction process development unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akhtar, S.; Friedman, S.; Mazzocco, N. J.; Yavorsky, P. M.

1977-01-01

A system for preparing coal slurry and feeding it into a high pressure liquefaction plant is described. The system was developed to provide supporting research and development for the Bureau of Mines coal liquefaction pilot plant. Operating experiences are included.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Hancock County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Hancock County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Hancock County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps (all types) in Hancock County, Maine, is at least 19 years. Most of these studies were published in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and no study is more recent than 1992. Some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study, indicating that the true average age of the data is probably more than 19 years. Since the studies were done, development has occurred in some of the watersheds and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions or accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Penobscot County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program (MFMP), began scoping work in 2006 for Penobscot County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Penobscot County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. As of 2007, the average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Penobscot County, Maine, is 22 years, based on the most recent revisions to the maps. Because the revisions did not affect all the map panels in each town, however, the true average date probably is more than 22 years. Many of the studies were published in the mid-1980s. Since the studies were completed, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, Edward; Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Merino, Miguel; Landgraf, Angela; Hintersberger, Esther; Kübler, Simon

2016-04-01

Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earth- quakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.

Coal liquefaction with subsequent bottoms pyrolysis

DOEpatents

Walchuk, George P.

1978-01-01

In a coal liquefaction process wherein heavy bottoms produced in a liquefaction zone are upgraded by coking or a similar pyrolysis step, pyrolysis liquids boiling in excess of about 1000.degree. F. are further reacted with molecular hydrogen in a reaction zone external of the liquefaction zone, the resulting effluent is fractionated to produce one or more distillate fractions and a bottoms fraction, a portion of this bottoms fraction is recycled to the reaction zone, and the remaining portion of the bottoms fraction is recycled to the pyrolysis step.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program Pr-Nthmp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Hincapie-Cardenas, C. M.

2014-12-01

Tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts are intended to reduce losses to life and property. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies, to developing tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the National Tsunami Hazards and Mitigation Program (NTHMP). This grant supports the TsunamiReady program which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault systems around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for local, regional and tele tsunamis have been identified and modeled and tsunami evacuation maps were prepared for PR. These maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario (MOM). The run-ups were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Online maps and related evacuation products are available to the public via the PR-TDST (PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool). Currently all the 44 coastal municipalities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the US NWS. The main goal of the program is to declare Puerto Rico as TsunamiReady, including two cities that are not coastal but could be affected by tsunamis. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP project, including the real time earthquake and tsunami monitoring as well as the specific protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach in Puerto Rico.

Harvesting rockfall hazard evaluation parameters from Google Earth Street View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partsinevelos, Panagiotis; Agioutantis, Zacharias; Tripolitsiotis, Achilles; Steiakakis, Chrysanthos; Mertikas, Stelios

2015-04-01

Rockfall incidents along highways and railways prove extremely dangerous for properties, infrastructures and human lives. Several qualitative metrics such as the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) and the Colorado Rockfall Hazard Rating System (CRHRS) have been established to estimate rockfall potential and provide risk maps in order to control and monitor rockfall incidents. The implementation of such metrics for efficient and reliable risk modeling require accurate knowledge of multi-parametric attributes such as the geological, geotechnical, topographic parameters of the study area. The Missouri Rockfall Hazard Rating System (MORH RS) identifies the most potentially problematic areas using digital video logging for the determination of parameters like slope height and angle, face irregularities, etc. This study aims to harvest in a semi-automated approach geometric and qualitative measures through open source platforms that may provide 3-dimensional views of the areas of interest. More specifically, the Street View platform from Google Maps, is hereby used to provide essential information that can be used towards 3-dimensional reconstruction of slopes along highways. The potential of image capturing along a programmable virtual route to provide the input data for photogrammetric processing is also evaluated. Moreover, qualitative characterization of the geological and geotechnical status, based on the Street View images, is performed. These attributes are then integrated to deliver a GIS-based rockfall hazard map. The 3-dimensional models are compared to actual photogrammetric measures in a rockfall prone area in Crete, Greece while in-situ geotechnical characterization is also used to compare and validate the hazard risk. This work is considered as the first step towards the exploitation of open source platforms to improve road safety and the development of an operational system where authorized agencies (i.e., civil protection) will be able to acquire near-real time hazard maps based on video images retrieved either by open source platforms, operational unmanned aerial vehicles, and/or simple video recordings from users. This work has been performed under the framework of the "Cooperation 2011" project ISTRIA (11_SYN_9_13989) funded from the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" (co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)) and managed by the Greek General Secretariat for Research and Technology.

46 CFR 148.450 - Cargoes subject to liquefaction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... in this section— (1) Cargo subject to liquefaction means a material that is subject to moisture migration and subsequent liquefaction if shipped with moisture content in excess of the transportable moisture limit. (2) Moisture migration is the movement of moisture by settling and consolidation of a...

Solvent treatment of coal for improved liquefaction

DOEpatents

Appell, Herbert R.; Narain, Nand K.; Utz, Bruce R.

1986-05-06

Increased liquefaction yield is obtained by pretreating a slurry of solid carbonaceous material and a liquid hydrocarbonaceous solvent at a temperature above 200.degree. C. but below 350.degree. C. for a period of 10 minutes to four hours prior to exposure to liquefaction temperatures.

Thermal properties of biopolyol from oil palm fruit fibre (OPFF) using solvolysis liquefaction technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kormin, Shaharuddin; Rus, Anika Zafiah M.; Azahari, M. Shafiq M.

2017-09-01

Liquefaction is known to be an effective method for converting biomass into a biopolyol. The biomass liquefaction of oil palm fruit waste (PFW) in the presence of liquefaction solvent/polyhydric alcohol (PA): polyethylene glycol 400 (PEG400) using sulfuric acid as catalyst was studied. For all experiments, the liquefaction was conducted at 150°C and atmospheric pressure. The mass ratio of OPFW to liquefaction solvents used in all the experiments was, 1/3. Thermogravimetric analyses (TGA) were used to analyze their biopolyol and residue behaviors. It was found that thermal stability of oil palm mesocarp fibre (PM), oil palm shell (PS) and oil palm kernel (PK) fibre exhibited the first degradation of hard segment at (232, 104, 230°C) and the second degradation of soft segment at (314, 226, 412°C) as compared to PM, PS and PK residue which (229, 102, 227°C) of hard segment and (310, 219, 299°C) of segment, respectively. This behavior of thermal degradation of the hard segment and soft segment of biopolyol was changes after undergo solvolysis liquefaction process. The result analysis showed that the resulting biopolyol and its residue was suitable monomer for polyurethane (PU) synthesis for the production of PU foams.

46 CFR 148.450 - Cargoes subject to liquefaction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... in this section— (1) Cargo subject to liquefaction means a material that is subject to moisture migration and subsequent liquefaction if shipped with moisture content in excess of the transportable moisture limit. (2) Moisture migration is the movement of moisture by settling and consolidation of a...

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Chiapas State (SE Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Lomelí, Anabel Georgina; García-Mayordomo, Julián

2015-04-01

The Chiapas State, in southeastern Mexico, is a very active seismic region due to the interaction of three tectonic plates: Northamerica, Cocos and Caribe. We present a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) specifically performed to evaluate seismic hazard in the Chiapas state. The PSHA was based on a composited seismic catalogue homogenized to Mw and was used a logic tree procedure for the consideration of different seismogenic source models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The results were obtained in terms of peak ground acceleration as well as spectral accelerations. The earthquake catalogue was compiled from the International Seismological Center and the Servicio Sismológico Nacional de México sources. Two different seismogenic source zones (SSZ) models were devised based on a revision of the tectonics of the region and the available geomorphological and geological maps. The SSZ were finally defined by the analysis of geophysical data, resulting two main different SSZ models. The Gutenberg-Richter parameters for each SSZ were calculated from the declustered and homogenized catalogue, while the maximum expected earthquake was assessed from both the catalogue and geological criteria. Several worldwide and regional GMPEs for subduction and crustal zones were revised. For each SSZ model we considered four possible combinations of GMPEs. Finally, hazard was calculated in terms of PGA and SA for 500-, 1000-, and 2500-years return periods for each branch of the logic tree using the CRISIS2007 software. The final hazard maps represent the mean values obtained from the two seismogenic and four attenuation models considered in the logic tree. For the three return periods analyzed, the maps locate the most hazardous areas in the Chiapas Central Pacific Zone, the Pacific Coastal Plain and in the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zone; intermediate hazard values in the Chiapas Batholith Zone and in the Strike-Slip Faults Province. The hazard decreases towards the northeast across the Reverse Faults Province and up to Yucatan Platform, where the lowest values are reached. We also produced uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the three main cities of Chiapas. Tapachula city presents the highest spectral accelerations, while Tuxtla Gutierrez and San Cristobal de las Casas cities show similar values. We conclude that seismic hazard in Chiapas is chiefly controlled by the subduction of the Cocos beneath Northamerica and Caribe tectonic plates, that makes the coastal areas the most hazardous. Additionally, the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zones are also important, increasing the hazard particularly in southeastern Chiapas.

Exergy analysis of helium liquefaction systems based on modified Claude cycle with two-expanders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Rijo Jacob; Ghosh, Parthasarathi; Chowdhury, Kanchan

2011-06-01

Large-scale helium liquefaction systems, being energy-intensive, demand judicious selection of process parameters. An effective tool for design and analysis of thermodynamic cycles for these systems is exergy analysis, which is used to study the behavior of a helium liquefaction system based on modified Claude cycle. Parametric evaluation using process simulator Aspen HYSYS® helps to identify the effects of cycle pressure ratio and expander flow fraction on the exergetic efficiency of the liquefaction cycle. The study computes the distribution of losses at different refrigeration stages of the cycle and helps in selecting optimum cycle pressures, operating temperature levels of expanders and mass flow rates through them. Results from the analysis may help evolving guidelines for designing appropriate thermodynamic cycles for practical helium liquefaction systems.

Comparison of SPT and V s-based liquefaction analyses: a case study in Erciş (Van, Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akkaya, İsmail; Özvan, Ali; Akin, Mutluhan; Akin, Müge K.; Övün, Uğur

2017-12-01

Liquefaction which is one of the most destructive ground deformations occurs during an earthquake in saturated or partially saturated silty and sandy soils, which may cause serious damages such as settlement and tilting of structures due to shear strength loss of soils. Standard (SPT) and cone (CPT) penetration tests as well as the shear wave velocity (V s)-based methods are commonly used for the determination of liquefaction potential. In this research, it was aimed to compare the SPT and V s-based liquefaction analysis methods by generating different earthquake scenarios. Accordingly, the Erciş residential area, which was mostly affected by the 2011 Van earthquake (M w = 7.1), was chosen as the model site. Erciş (Van, Turkey) and its surroundings settle on an alluvial plain which consists of silty and sandy layers with shallow groundwater level. Moreover, Çaldıran, Erciş-Kocapınar and Van Fault Zones are the major seismic sources of the region which have a significant potential of producing large magnitude earthquakes. After liquefaction assessments, the liquefaction potential in the western part of the region and in the coastal regions nearby the Lake Van is found to be higher than the other locations. Thus, it can be stated that the soil tightness and groundwater level dominantly control the liquefaction potential. In addition, the lateral spreading and sand boiling spots observed after the 23rd October 2011 Van earthquake overlap the scenario boundaries predicted in this study. Eventually, the use of V s-based liquefaction analysis in collaboration with the SPT results is quite advantageous to assess the rate of liquefaction in a specific area.

Potential of soil liquefaction at Perlis, northern region of Malalysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Nasir, Mohamad Amzar Bin Mhd; Isa, Nur Fitriah; Zaki, Mohd Faiz Mohammad; Hassan, Zulkarnain Bin; Ismail, Zul-Atfi Bin

2017-09-01

Soil liquefaction is earthquake's secondary effect which could cause fatal damages and structures instability. Despite Malaysia been located in stable zone of Pacific Ring of Fire, few significant surrounded quakes like Sumatra-Andaman earthquake had prompted Malaysian's public concern, especially in Perlis area, on local seismic resistant. Hence, this research presents the analysis result of liquefaction potential of the soils, as the secondary effect of earthquake, within Perlis, northern region of Malaysia; the next strong and sustainable metropolis by using semi-empirical procedures introduced by Seed and Idriss. The study consists of two stages which were determination of the local geological and geotechnical site conditions within Perlis and analysis of soil liquefaction susceptibility by using various methods and liquefaction potential by using Simplified Procedure developed by Seed and Idriss on stress approach. There were consist of four phases implemented in order to achieve the objectives targeted for the study after problem being identified. Firstly, a comprehensive review of literature on liquefaction at Perlis was carried out. Second phase was data collection process that includes collection of Site Investigation (SI) report. Thirdly, data analysis was carried out by utilizing suitable method. The final phase was to draw conclusion and recommendation for this study. It can be concluded that the overall Perlis due to earthquake moment magnitude below 7.5 has no potential to soil liquefaction. However, with the range of liquefaction potential of 1.60 to 5.64 in Kuala Perlis area, it is liquefiable. The development of liquefaction severity map of Perlis, Malaysia in this research, may be used by others as a reference for seismic design and standard safety measures as well as for further research work.

Comparison of SPT and V s-based liquefaction analyses: a case study in Erciş (Van, Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akkaya, İsmail; Özvan, Ali; Akin, Mutluhan; Akin, Müge K.; Övün, Uğur

2018-02-01

Liquefaction which is one of the most destructive ground deformations occurs during an earthquake in saturated or partially saturated silty and sandy soils, which may cause serious damages such as settlement and tilting of structures due to shear strength loss of soils. Standard (SPT) and cone (CPT) penetration tests as well as the shear wave velocity ( V s)-based methods are commonly used for the determination of liquefaction potential. In this research, it was aimed to compare the SPT and V s-based liquefaction analysis methods by generating different earthquake scenarios. Accordingly, the Erciş residential area, which was mostly affected by the 2011 Van earthquake ( M w = 7.1), was chosen as the model site. Erciş (Van, Turkey) and its surroundings settle on an alluvial plain which consists of silty and sandy layers with shallow groundwater level. Moreover, Çaldıran, Erciş-Kocapınar and Van Fault Zones are the major seismic sources of the region which have a significant potential of producing large magnitude earthquakes. After liquefaction assessments, the liquefaction potential in the western part of the region and in the coastal regions nearby the Lake Van is found to be higher than the other locations. Thus, it can be stated that the soil tightness and groundwater level dominantly control the liquefaction potential. In addition, the lateral spreading and sand boiling spots observed after the 23rd October 2011 Van earthquake overlap the scenario boundaries predicted in this study. Eventually, the use of V s-based liquefaction analysis in collaboration with the SPT results is quite advantageous to assess the rate of liquefaction in a specific area.

Post-cyclic behavior of low plasticity silt under full and limited liquefaction using triaxial compression testing.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

During an earthquake, liquefaction does not happen all the time. It depends on the duration and magnitude of the earthquake and the properties (with relationship to resistance of liquefaction) of the low plasticity silt. Under low duration or magnitu...

A spotlight on liquefaction: evidence from clinical settings and experimental models in tuberculosis.

PubMed

Cardona, Pere-Joan

2011-01-01

Liquefaction is one of the most intriguing aspects of human tuberculosis. It is a major cause of the transition from the infection to active disease (tuberculosis, TB) as well as the transmission of M. tuberculosis to other persons. This paper reviews the natural history of liquefaction in humans from a pathological and radiological point of view and discusses how the experimental models available can be used to address the topic of liquefaction and cavity formation. Different concepts that have been related to liquefaction, from the influence of immune response to mechanical factors, are reviewed. Synchronic necrosis or apoptosis of infected macrophages in a close area, together with an ineffective fibrosis, appears to be clue in this process, in which macrophages, the immune response, and bacillary load interact usually in a particular scenario: the upper lobes of the lung. The summary would be that even if being a stochastic effect, liquefaction would result if the organization of the intragranulomatous necrosis (by means of fibrosis) would be disturbed.

Characterization of milled solid residue from cypress liquefaction in sub- and super ethanol.

PubMed

Liu, Hua-Min; Liu, Yu-Lan

2014-01-01

Cypress liquefaction in sub- and super ethanol was carried out in an autoclave at various temperatures. Milled solid residue (MSR) was isolated from solid residue remaining from the liquefaction process, and its chemical characteristics was comparatively investigated with milled wood lignin (MWL) of cypress by sugar analysis, elemental analysis, FT-IR analysis, gel permeation chromatography, and NMR analysis. Results showed that there were two reactions (de-polymerization and re-polymerization) during the cypress liquefaction in sub- and super ethanol and the re-polymerization reactions were the main reaction at 220-260°C. Considering the stability of side-chain, the stability of lignin side-chain in cypress during liquefaction process in ethanol could be sequenced as follows: β-5>β-β'>β-O-4'. The MSR were mainly from the decomposition and re-polymerization of lignin. This study suggests that characterization of MSR provides a promising method to investigate the mechanisms of cypress liquefaction in ethanol. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flood Hazard Mapping by Applying Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, K. Y.; Lee, J. Y.; Keum, H.; Kim, B. J.; Kim, T. H.

2017-12-01

There are lots of technical methods to integrate various factors for flood hazard mapping. The purpose of this study is to suggest the methodology of integrated flood hazard mapping using MCDM(Multi Criteria Decision Making). MCDM problems involve a set of alternatives that are evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria. In this study, to apply MCDM to assessing flood risk, maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time are considered as criterion, and each applied elements are considered as alternatives. The scheme to find the efficient alternative closest to a ideal value is appropriate way to assess flood risk of a lot of element units(alternatives) based on various flood indices. Therefore, TOPSIS which is most commonly used MCDM scheme is adopted to create flood hazard map. The indices for flood hazard mapping(maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time) have uncertainty concerning simulation results due to various values according to flood scenario and topographical condition. These kind of ambiguity of indices can cause uncertainty of flood hazard map. To consider ambiguity and uncertainty of criterion, fuzzy logic is introduced which is able to handle ambiguous expression. In this paper, we made Flood Hazard Map according to levee breach overflow using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique. We confirmed the areas where the highest grade of hazard was recorded through the drawn-up integrated flood hazard map, and then produced flood hazard map can be compared them with those indicated in the existing flood risk maps. Also, we expect that if we can apply the flood hazard map methodology suggested in this paper even to manufacturing the current flood risk maps, we will be able to make a new flood hazard map to even consider the priorities for hazard areas, including more varied and important information than ever before. Keywords : Flood hazard map; levee break analysis; 2D analysis; MCDM; Fuzzy TOPSIS Acknowlegement This research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B079625-04) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

A Spotlight on Liquefaction: Evidence from Clinical Settings and Experimental Models in Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Cardona, Pere-Joan

2011-01-01

Liquefaction is one of the most intriguing aspects of human tuberculosis. It is a major cause of the transition from the infection to active disease (tuberculosis, TB) as well as the transmission of M. tuberculosis to other persons. This paper reviews the natural history of liquefaction in humans from a pathological and radiological point of view and discusses how the experimental models available can be used to address the topic of liquefaction and cavity formation. Different concepts that have been related to liquefaction, from the influence of immune response to mechanical factors, are reviewed. Synchronic necrosis or apoptosis of infected macrophages in a close area, together with an ineffective fibrosis, appears to be clue in this process, in which macrophages, the immune response, and bacillary load interact usually in a particular scenario: the upper lobes of the lung. The summary would be that even if being a stochastic effect, liquefaction would result if the organization of the intragranulomatous necrosis (by means of fibrosis) would be disturbed. PMID:21437230

Isolation and characterization of cellulose nanofibers from bamboo using microwave liquefaction combined with chemical treatment and ultrasonication

Treesearch

Jiulong Xie; Chung Hse; Cornelis F. De Hoop; Tingxing Hu; Jinqiu Qi; Todd F. Shupe

2016-01-01

Cellulose nanofibers were successfully isolated from bamboo using microwave liquefaction combinedwith chemical treatment and ultrasonic nanofibrillation processes. The microwave liquefaction couldeliminate almost all the lignin in bamboo, resulting in high cellulose content residues within 7 min, andthe cellulose enriched residues could be readily purified by...

Assessing Seismic Hazards - Algorithms, Maps, and Emergency Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferriz, H.

2007-05-01

Public officials in charge of building codes, land use planning, and emergency response need sound estimates of seismic hazards. Sources may be well defined (e.g., active faults that have a surface trace) or diffuse (e.g., a subduction zone or a blind-thrust belt), but in both cases one can use a deterministic or worst-case scenario approach. For each scenario, a design earthquake is selected based on historic data or the known length of Holocene ruptures (as determined by geologic mapping). Horizontal ground accelerations (HGAs) can then be estimated at different distances from the earthquake epicenter using published attenuation relations (e.g., Seismological Res. Letters, v. 68, 1997) and estimates of the elastic properties of the substrate materials. No good algorithms are available to take into account reflection of elastic waves across other fault planes (e.g., a common effect in California, where there are many strands of the San Andreas fault), or amplification of waves in water-saturated alluvial and lacustrine basins (e.g., the Mexico City basin), but empirical relations can be developed by correlating historic damage patterns with predicted HGAs. The ultimate result is a map of HGAs. With this map, and with additional data on depth to groundwater and geotechnical properties of local soils, a liquefaction susceptibility map can be prepared, using published algorithms (e.g., J. of Geotech. Geoenv. Eng., v. 127, p. 817-833, 2001; Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 579-594, 2001). Finally, the HGA estimates, digital elevation models, geologic structural data, and geotechnical properties of local geologic units can be used to prepare a slope failure susceptibility map (e.g., Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 77-94, 2001). Seismic hazard maps are used by: (1) Building officials to determine areas of the city where special construction codes have to be implemented, and where existing buildings may need to be retrofitted. (2) Planning officials to evaluate plans for new growth (though in most cities land use patterns are historically established). (3) Emergency response officials to plan emergency operations. (4) Insurance commissioners to estimate losses and insurance claims (e.g., with FEMA's software HAZUS).

Influence of solvent type on microwave-assisted liquefaction of bamboo

Treesearch

Jiulong Xie; Chung Hse; Todd F. Shupe; Tingxing Hu

2016-01-01

Microwave-assisted liquefaction of bamboo in glycerol, polyethylene glycerol (PEG), methanol, ethanol, and water were comparatively investigated by evaluating the temperature-dependence for conversion and liquefied residue characteristics. The conversion for the liquefaction in methanol, ethanol, and water increased with an increase in reaction temperature, while that...

Survey study of the efficiency and economics of hydrogen liquefaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The production of liquid hydrogen, with coal as the starting material, is reported. The minimum practicable energy and cost for liquefaction of gaseous hydrogen in the 1985-2000 time period is presented to investigate the possible benefits of the integration of coal gasification processes with the liquefaction process.

Temblor, an App to Transform Seismic Science into Personal Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sevilgen, V.; Jacobson, D. S.; Stein, R. S.; Lotto, G. C.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.

2016-12-01

Government agencies and academic researchers provide a rich stream of seismic and engineering data. In addition to rapid earthquake notifications and damage assessments, these form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and loss evaluations used by emergency management agencies, practicing engineers and geologists, and the insurance industry. But the data and the assessments that grow out of them are notoriously difficult for the public to comprehend. For example, who but the cognoscenti understands what "2% exceedance probability in 50 years," "0.5 g peak ground acceleration," or "moment-magnitude" mean? Nowhere is this divide more stark than in earthquake insurance. Using proprietary models, insurers calculate the probability of a payout above the deductible for your home policy, but sell the policy as "peace of mind" or "the strength to rebuild." How can a homeowner act in her best financial interests under these circumstances? Temblor (temblor.net) is our attempt to make seismic risk lucid, personal, and actionable. Free and ad-free, Temblor uses the best available public data and methods. Temblor gives you the seismic hazard rank of your location anywhere in the U.S. In its maps, you can see the active faults and recent quakes, and the landslide, liquefaction, tsunami inundation, and flood zones around you. Temblor also displays the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model of Bird et al. (2015). By entering the construction year and square footage for homes within the U.S., you learn the likely cost for seismic damage, and how that cost could be reduced by retrofit or covered by insurance. To give context to this decision, the app compares your seismic risk to other risks homeowners protect themselves against or insure for. Temblor estimates the cost and the most probable financial and safety benefits of a retrofit based on your location, home age and size, so you can decide if the expenditure makes sense. Seeking to make quakes more fascinating than frightening, the Temblor blog provides insights about the latest quakes, and editorials about seismic safety and scientific discoveries. Ultimately, Temblor's mission is not to scare, soothe, or snow people, but to be scientifically credible and personally useful.

Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2015-12-01

As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these maps better than the general public. This study's findings will be provided to emergency managers to assist in the development of educational programs and response plans.

DEM study of fabric features governing undrained post-liquefaction shear deformation of sand

DOE PAGES

Wang, Rui; Fu, Pengcheng; Zhang, Jian-Min; ...

2016-10-05

In an effort to study undrained post-liquefaction shear deformation of sand, the discrete element method (DEM) is adopted to conduct undrained cyclic biaxial compression simulations on granular assemblies consisting of 2D circular particles. The simulations are able to successfully reproduce the generation and eventual saturation of shear strain through the series of liquefaction states that the material experiences during cyclic loading after the initial liquefaction. Also, DEM simulations with different deviatoric stress amplitudes and initial mean effective stresses on samples with different void ratios and loading histories are carried out to investigate the relationship between various mechanics- or fabric-related variablesmore » and post-liquefaction shear strain development. It is found that well-known metrics such as deviatoric stress amplitude, initial mean effective stress, void ratio, contact normal fabric anisotropy intensity, and coordination number, are not adequately correlated to the observed shear strain development and, therefore, could not possibly be used for its prediction. A new fabric entity, namely the Mean Neighboring Particle Distance (MNPD), is introduced to reflect the space arrangement of particles. It is found that the MNPD has an extremely strong and definitive relationship with the post-liquefaction shear strain development, showing MNPD’s potential role as a parameter governing post-liquefaction behavior of sand.« less

Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, Augusto; Bevilacqua, Andrea; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Isaia, Roberto; Aspinall, Willy P.; Bisson, Marina; Flandoli, Franco; Baxter, Peter J.; Bertagnini, Antonella; Iannuzzi, Enrico; Orsucci, Simone; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Vitale, Stefano

2015-04-01

Campi Flegrei (CF) is an example of an active caldera containing densely populated settlements at very high risk of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). We present here an innovative method for assessing background spatial PDC hazard in a caldera setting with probabilistic invasion maps conditional on the occurrence of an explosive event. The method encompasses the probabilistic assessment of potential vent opening positions, derived in the companion paper, combined with inferences about the spatial density distribution of PDC invasion areas from a simplified flow model, informed by reconstruction of deposits from eruptions in the last 15 ka. The flow model describes the PDC kinematics and accounts for main effects of topography on flow propagation. Structured expert elicitation is used to incorporate certain sources of epistemic uncertainty, and a Monte Carlo approach is adopted to produce a set of probabilistic hazard maps for the whole CF area. Our findings show that, in case of eruption, almost the entire caldera is exposed to invasion with a mean probability of at least 5%, with peaks greater than 50% in some central areas. Some areas outside the caldera are also exposed to this danger, with mean probabilities of invasion of the order of 5-10%. Our analysis suggests that these probability estimates have location-specific uncertainties which can be substantial. The results prove to be robust with respect to alternative elicitation models and allow the influence on hazard mapping of different sources of uncertainty, and of theoretical and numerical assumptions, to be quantified.

78 FR 36212 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

... repository Community address Prince George's County, Maryland, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for..., Laurel, MD 20707. Unincorporated Areas of Prince George's Prince George's County County. Department of...

77 FR 18846 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-28

... panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent sciences established to review... Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.dnr.sc.gov/water/flood/comaps.html City...

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in Greece for seismic sources along the segmented Hellenic Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikova, Tatyana; Babeyko, Andrey; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

2017-04-01

Greece and adjacent coastal areas are characterized by a high population exposure to tsunami hazard. The Hellenic Arc is the most active geotectonic structure for the generation of earthquakes and tsunamis. We performed probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for selected locations of Greek coastlines which are the forecasting points officially used in the tsunami warning operations by the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center and the NEAMTWS/IOC/UNESCO. In our analysis we considered seismic sources for tsunami generation along the western, central and eastern segments of the Hellenic Arc. We first created a synthetic catalog as long as 10,000 years for all the significant earthquakes with magnitudes in the range from 6.0 to 8.5, the real events being included in this catalog. For each event included in the synthetic catalog a tsunami was generated and propagated using Boussinesq model. The probability of occurrence for each event was determined by Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution. The results of our study are expressed as hazard curves and hazard maps. The hazard curves were obtained for the selected sites and present the annual probability of exceedance as a function of pick coastal tsunami amplitude. Hazard maps represent the distribution of peak coastal tsunami amplitudes corresponding to a fixed annual probability. In such forms our results can be easily compared to the ones obtained in other studies and further employed for the development of tsunami risk management plans. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ney, B.; Askari, M.

2009-04-01

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran Behnoosh Neyestani , Mina Askari Students of Science and Research University,Iran. Seismic Hazard Assessment has been done for Shahdad city in this study , and four maps (Kerman-Bam-Nakhil Ab-Allah Abad) has been prepared to indicate the Deterministic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in this area. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment has been preformed for a region in eastern Iran (Shahdad) based on the available geological, seismological and geophysical information and seismic zoning map of region has been constructed. For this assessment first Seimotectonic map of study region in a radius of 100km is prepared using geological maps, distribution of historical and instrumental earthquake data and focal mechanism solutions it is used as the base map for delineation of potential seismic sources. After that minimum distance, for every seismic sources until site (Shahdad) and maximum magnitude for each source have been determined. In Shahdad ,according to results, peak ground acceleration using the Yoshimitsu Fukushima &Teiji Tanaka'1990 attenuation relationship is estimated to be 0.58 g, that is related to the movement of nayband fault with distance 2.4km of the site and maximum magnitude Ms=7.5.

DEM study of fabric features governing undrained post-liquefaction shear deformation of sand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Rui; Fu, Pengcheng; Zhang, Jian-Min

In an effort to study undrained post-liquefaction shear deformation of sand, the discrete element method (DEM) is adopted to conduct undrained cyclic biaxial compression simulations on granular assemblies consisting of 2D circular particles. The simulations are able to successfully reproduce the generation and eventual saturation of shear strain through the series of liquefaction states that the material experiences during cyclic loading after the initial liquefaction. Also, DEM simulations with different deviatoric stress amplitudes and initial mean effective stresses on samples with different void ratios and loading histories are carried out to investigate the relationship between various mechanics- or fabric-related variablesmore » and post-liquefaction shear strain development. It is found that well-known metrics such as deviatoric stress amplitude, initial mean effective stress, void ratio, contact normal fabric anisotropy intensity, and coordination number, are not adequately correlated to the observed shear strain development and, therefore, could not possibly be used for its prediction. A new fabric entity, namely the Mean Neighboring Particle Distance (MNPD), is introduced to reflect the space arrangement of particles. It is found that the MNPD has an extremely strong and definitive relationship with the post-liquefaction shear strain development, showing MNPD’s potential role as a parameter governing post-liquefaction behavior of sand.« less

Assessment of oil slick hazard and risk at vulnerable coastal sites.

PubMed

Melaku Canu, Donata; Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sorgente, Roberto; Olita, Antonio; Fazioli, Leopoldo; Cucco, Andrea

2015-05-15

This work gives an assessment of the hazard faced by Sicily coasts regarding potential offshore surface oil spill events and provides a risk assessment for Sites of Community Importance (SCI) and Special Protection Areas (SPA). A lagrangian module, coupled with a high resolution finite element three dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to track the ensemble of a large number of surface trajectories followed by particles released over 6 selected areas located inside the Sicily Channel. The analysis was carried out under multiple scenarios of meteorological conditions. Oil evaporation, oil weathering, and shore stranding are also considered. Seasonal hazard maps for different stranding times and seasonal risk maps were then produced for the whole Sicilian coastline. The results highlight that depending on the meteo-marine conditions, particles can reach different areas of the Sicily coast, including its northern side, and illustrate how impacts can be greatly reduced through prompt implementation of mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalalalhosseini, Seyed Mostafa; Zafarani, Hamid; Zare, Mehdi

2018-01-01

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-01

In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationships for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.

78 FR 36217 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

... sciences established to review conflicting scientific and technical data and provide recommendations for... Shop Road, Wetumpka, AL 36092. Lowndes County, Alabama, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for...

Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemeier-Klose, M.; Wagner, K.

2009-04-01

Flood risk communication with the general public and the population at risk is getting increasingly important for flood risk management, especially as a precautionary measure. This is also underlined by the EU Flood Directive. The flood related authorities therefore have to develop adjusted information tools which meet the demands of different user groups. This article presents the formative evaluation of flood hazard maps and web mapping services according to the specific requirements and needs of the general public using the dynamic-transactional approach as a theoretical framework. The evaluation was done by a mixture of different methods; an analysis of existing tools, a creative workshop with experts and laymen and an online survey. The currently existing flood hazard maps or web mapping services or web GIS still lack a good balance between simplicity and complexity with adequate readability and usability for the public. Well designed and associative maps (e.g. using blue colours for water depths) which can be compared with past local flood events and which can create empathy in viewers, can help to raise awareness, to heighten the activity and knowledge level or can lead to further information seeking. Concerning web mapping services, a linkage between general flood information like flood extents of different scenarios and corresponding water depths and real time information like gauge levels is an important demand by users. Gauge levels of these scenarios are easier to understand than the scientifically correct return periods or annualities. The recently developed Bavarian web mapping service tries to integrate these requirements.

The Utilization of Bark to Make Rigid Polyurethane Foams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Souza, Jason

This work focused on the characterization of polyols derived from the liquefaction or alkoxylation of bark. Regarding liquefaction, it was found that both temperature and solvent structure played a significant role in polyol properties. High temperature liquefaction resulted in the degradation of sugars, while liquefaction at mild temperatures preserved sugar structures as shown by 31P-NMR. It was also shown that liquefaction at 130°C was ideal in terms of producing a polyol with a relatively at, broad, plateau of molecular weight distribution, whereas liquefaction at 90 and 160°C produced polyols with a large amount of low molecular weight compounds. Regarding solvent structure, it was found that polyhydric alcohols with short chain primary hydroxyls resulted in less sugar degradation products and less formation of condensation side-products. It is proposed that the highly polar environment promoted grafting and prevented condensation onto other biopolymers. Using organic solvents it was found that ketonic solvents like acetyl acetone and cyclohexanone, through their highly polar carbonyl group could engage in hydrogen bonding through electron donation/proton accepting interactions. These enabled the solvent to reduce the amount of condensation reactions and improve liquefaction yield. The liquefied bark-based polyols were then used to make polyurethane foams. It was found that when a diversity of hydroxyl groups were present the foaming rate was reduced and this may react a slower rate of curing and explain why the bark foams had a greater amount of cells that underwent coalescence. It was also observed that the bark foams had a low amount of closed-cell content. Since closed-cell content plays a role in dictating elastic compression, this may explain why the bark foams exhibited a lower elastic modulus. Finally, as a contrast to liquefaction, bark was alkoxylated. It was observed that the conversion yield was higher than liquefaction. The polyols had a high average molecular weight with a broad distribution and far greater solubility. It is proposed that alkoxylation is far less degradative than liquefaction. This may explain why the foams showed improved compressive behaviour compared to the foams made from liqueed bark-based polyols. Through greater characterization of the structure of polyols produced via liquefaction and alkoxylation the relationships between reaction parameters, polyol structure, and foam properties can be better understood. This is an important step towards the utilization of bark to make polyurethane foams.

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-08

In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationshipsmore » for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.« less

78 FR 35625 - Sabine Pass Liquefaction Expansion, LLC; Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC; Sabine Pass LNG, L.P...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-13

... Pipeline, L.P.: Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Assessment for the Planned Sabine Pass Liquefaction Expansion Project and Cheniere Creole Trail Pipeline Expansion Project, Request for Comments on... Expansion Project (SPLE Project) and the Cheniere Creole Trail Pipeline, L.P. (CCTPL) Chenier Creole Trail...

The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence: Environmental effects, seismic triggering thresholds and geologic legacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quigley, Mark C.; Hughes, Matthew W.; Bradley, Brendon A.; van Ballegooy, Sjoerd; Reid, Catherine; Morgenroth, Justin; Horton, Travis; Duffy, Brendan; Pettinga, Jarg R.

2016-03-01

Seismic shaking and tectonic deformation during strong earthquakes can trigger widespread environmental effects. The severity and extent of a given effect relates to the characteristics of the causative earthquake and the intrinsic properties of the affected media. Documentation of earthquake environmental effects in well-instrumented, historical earthquakes can enable seismologic triggering thresholds to be estimated across a spectrum of geologic, topographic and hydrologic site conditions, and implemented into seismic hazard assessments, geotechnical engineering designs, palaeoseismic interpretations, and forecasts of the impacts of future earthquakes. The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), including the moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 Darfield earthquake and Mw 6.2, 6.0, 5.9, and 5.8 aftershocks, occurred on a suite of previously unidentified, primarily blind, active faults in the eastern South Island of New Zealand. The CES is one of Earth's best recorded historical earthquake sequences. The location of the CES proximal to and beneath a major urban centre enabled rapid and detailed collection of vast amounts of field, geospatial, geotechnical, hydrologic, biologic, and seismologic data, and allowed incremental and cumulative environmental responses to seismic forcing to be documented throughout a protracted earthquake sequence. The CES caused multiple instances of tectonic surface deformation (≥ 3 events), surface manifestations of liquefaction (≥ 11 events), lateral spreading (≥ 6 events), rockfall (≥ 6 events), cliff collapse (≥ 3 events), subsidence (≥ 4 events), and hydrological (10s of events) and biological shifts (≥ 3 events). The terrestrial area affected by strong shaking (e.g. peak ground acceleration (PGA) ≥ 0.1-0.3 g), and the maximum distances between earthquake rupture and environmental response (Rrup), both generally increased with increased earthquake Mw, but were also influenced by earthquake location and source characteristics. However, the severity of a given environmental response at any given site related predominantly to ground shaking characteristics (PGA, peak ground velocities) and site conditions (water table depth, soil type, geomorphic and topographic setting) rather than earthquake Mw. In most cases, the most severe liquefaction, rockfall, cliff collapse, subsidence, flooding, tree damage, and biologic habitat changes were triggered by proximal, moderate magnitude (Mw ≤ 6.2) earthquakes on blind faults. CES environmental effects will be incompletely preserved in the geologic record and variably diagnostic of spatial and temporal earthquake clustering. Liquefaction feeder dikes in areas of severe and recurrent liquefaction will provide the best preserved and potentially most diagnostic CES features. Rockfall talus deposits and boulders will be well preserved and potentially diagnostic of the strong intensity of CES shaking, but challenging to decipher in terms of single versus multiple events. Most other phenomena will be transient (e.g., distal groundwater responses), not uniquely diagnostic of earthquakes (e.g., flooding), or more ambiguous (e.g. biologic changes). Preliminary palaeoseismic investigations in the CES region indicate recurrence of liquefaction in susceptible sediments of 100 to 300 yr, recurrence of severe rockfall event(s) of ca. 6000 to 8000 yr, and recurrence of surface rupturing on the largest CES source fault of ca. 20,000 to 30,000 yr. These data highlight the importance of utilising multiple proxy datasets in palaeoearthquake studies. The severity of environmental effects triggered during the strongest CES earthquakes was as great as or equivalent to any historic or prehistoric effects recorded in the geologic record. We suggest that the shaking caused by rupture of local blind faults in the CES comprised a 'worst case' seismic shaking scenario for parts of the Christchurch urban area. Moderate Mw blind fault earthquakes may contribute the highest proportion of seismic hazard, be the most important drivers of landscape evolution, and dominate the palaeoseismic record in some locations on Earth, including locations distal from any identified active faults. A high scientific priority should be placed on improving the spatial extent and quality of 'off-fault' shaking records of strong earthquakes, particularly near major urban centres.

Developing Coastal Surface Roughness Maps Using ASTER and QuickBird Data Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joe; Berglund, Judith; Davis, Bruce

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation regards one element of a larger project on the integration of NASA science models and data into the Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) Hurricane module for hurricane damage and loss risk assessment. HAZUS-MH is a decision support tool being developed by the National Institute of Building Sciences for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). It includes the Hurricane Module, which employs surface roughness maps made from National Land Cover Data (NLCD) maps to estimate coastal hurricane wind damage and loss. NLCD maps are produced and distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey. This presentation discusses an effort to improve upon current HAZUS surface roughness maps by employing ASTER multispectral classifications with QuickBird "ground reference" imagery.

A methodology to estimate the future extent of dryland salinity in the southwest of Western Australia.

PubMed

Caccetta, Peter; Dunne, Robert; George, Richard; McFarlane, Don

2010-01-01

In the southwestern agricultural region of Western Australia, the clearing of the original perennial vegetation for annual vegetation-based dryland agriculture has lead to rising saline groundwater levels. This has had effects such as reduced productivity of agricultural land, death of native vegetation, reduced stream water quality and infrastructure damage. These effects have been observed at many locations within the 18 million ha of cleared land. This has lead to efforts to quantify, in a spatially explicit way, the historical and likely future extent of the area affected, with the view to informing management decisions. This study was conducted to determine whether the likely future extent of the area affected by dryland salinity could be estimated by means of developing spatially explicit maps for use in management and planning. We derived catchment-related variables from digital elevation models and perennial vegetation presence/absence maps. We then used these variables to predict the salinity hazard extent by applying a combination of decision tree classification and morphological image processing algorithms. Sufficient objective data such as groundwater depth, its rate of rise, and its concentration of dissolved salts were generally not available, so we used regional expert opinion (derived from the limited existing studies on salinity hazard extent) as training and validation data. We obtained an 87% agreement in the salinity hazard extent estimated by this method compared with the validation data, and conclude that the maps are sufficient for planning. We estimate that the salinity hazard extent is 29.7% of the agricultural land.

Advanced direct liquefaction concepts for PETC generic units. Quarterly technical progress report, October 1992--December 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The reactivity of the THF insoluble fraction of the ashy resid component of Wilsonville recycle oil (WRO) during liquefaction of Black Thunder coal in tetralin was determined at 415{degrees}C and 60 minutes. The liquefaction runs were made by combining this material with Black Thunder coal at the same ratio used in the WRO coal runs. THF conversion and product distribution from liquefaction in tetralin in the presence of the THF insoluble fraction of the ashy resid were similar to results from liquefaction in WRO. THF conversion was greater than loot with an oil yield that was somewhat higher than inmore » WRO. Differences in HC gas yield and H{sub 2} consumption were slight, while conversion and product distribution from liquefaction of Black Thunder coal in tetralin or in the WRO distillate were quite different. In both these solvents the 85--86% THF conversions were less than for runs in which the THF insoluble fraction of the ashy resid was present. This establishes that the THF insoluble fraction of the ashy resid is the reactive fraction of the WRO.« less

Evaluation of liquefaction potential for building code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunziata, C.; De Nisco, G.; Panza, G. F.

2008-07-01

The standard approach for the evaluation of the liquefaction susceptibility is based on the estimation of a safety factor between the cyclic shear resistance to liquefaction and the earthquake induced shear stress. Recently, an updated procedure based on shear-wave velocities (Vs) has been proposed which could be more easily applied. These methods have been applied at La Plaja beach of Catania, that experienced liquefaction because of the 1693 earthquake. The detailed geotechnical and Vs information and the realistic ground motion computed for the 1693 event let us compare the two approaches. The successful application of the Vs procedure, slightly modified to fit historical and safety factor information, even if additional field performances are needed, encourages the development of a guide for liquefaction potential analysis, based on well defined Vs profiles to be included in the italian seismic code.

Coal liquefaction: A research and development needs assessment: Final report, Volume II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schindler, H.D.; Burke, F.P.; Chao, K.C.

1989-03-01

Volume II of this report on an assessment of research needs for coal liquefaction contains reviews of the five liquefaction technologies---direct, indirect, pyrolysis, coprocessing, and bioconversion. These reviews are not meant to be encyclopedic; several outstanding reviews of liquefaction have appeared in recent years and the reader is referred to these whenever applicable. Instead, these chapters contain reviews of selected topics that serve to support the panel's recommendations or to illustrate recent accomplishments, work in progress, or areas of major research interest. At the beginning of each of these chapters is a brief introduction and a summary of the mostmore » important research recommendations brought out during the panel discussions and supported by the material presented in the review. A review of liquefaction developments outside the US is included. 594 refs., 100 figs., 60 tabs.« less

Coal liquefaction quenching process

DOEpatents

Thorogood, Robert M.; Yeh, Chung-Liang; Donath, Ernest E.

1983-01-01

There is described an improved coal liquefaction quenching process which prevents the formation of coke with a minimum reduction of thermal efficiency of the coal liquefaction process. In the process, the rapid cooling of the liquid/solid products of the coal liquefaction reaction is performed without the cooling of the associated vapor stream to thereby prevent formation of coke and the occurrence of retrograde reactions. The rapid cooling is achieved by recycling a subcooled portion of the liquid/solid mixture to the lower section of a phase separator that separates the vapor from the liquid/solid products leaving the coal reactor.

Comment on "How can seismic hazard around the New Madrid seismic zone be similar to that in California?" by Arthur Frankel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Z.; Shi, B.; Kiefer, J.D.

2005-01-01

PSHA is the method used most to assess seismic hazards for input into various aspects of public and financial policy. For example, PSHA was used by the U.S. Geological Survey to develop the National Seismic Hazard Maps (Frankel et al., 1996, 2002). These maps are the basis for many national, state, and local seismic safety regulations and design standards, such as the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, the International Building Code, and the International Residential Code. Adoption and implementation of these regulations and design standards would have significant impacts on many communities in the New Madrid area, including Memphis, Tennessee and Paducah, Kentucky. Although "mitigating risks to society from earthquakes involves economic and policy issues" (Stein, 2004), seismic hazard assessment is the basis. Seismologists should provide the best information on seismic hazards and communicate them to users and policy makers. There is a lack of effort in communicating the uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment in the central U.S., however. Use of 10%, 5%, and 2% PE in 50 years causes confusion in communicating seismic hazard assessment. It would be easy to discuss and understand the design ground motions if the true meaning of the ground motion derived from PSHA were presented, i.e., the ground motion with the estimated uncertainty or the associated confidence level.

Development of Maximum Considered Earthquake Ground Motion Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leyendecker, E.V.; Hunt, R.J.; Frankel, A.D.; Rukstales, K.S.

2000-01-01

The 1997 NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings use a design procedure that is based on spectral response acceleration rather than the traditional peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, or zone factors. The spectral response accelerations are obtained from maps prepared following the recommendations of the Building Seismic Safety Council's (BSSC) Seismic Design Procedures Group (SDPG). The SDPG-recommended maps, the Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) Ground Motion Maps, are based on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard maps with additional modifications incorporating deterministic ground motions in selected areas and the application of engineering judgement. The MCE ground motion maps included with the 1997 NEHRP Provisions also serve as the basis for the ground motion maps used in the seismic design portions of the 2000 International Building Code and the 2000 International Residential Code. Additionally the design maps prepared for the 1997 NEHRP Provisions, combined with selected USGS probabilistic maps, are used with the 1997 NEHRP Guidelines for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings.

Seismic hazards and land-use planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Donald R.; Buchanan-Banks, Jane M.

1974-01-01

Basic earth-science data are necessary for a realistic assessment of seismic hazards and as a basis for limiting corrective land-use controls only to those areas of greatest hazard. For example, the location, character, and amount of likely displacement and activity of surface faulting can be predicted if detailed geologic maps and seismic data are available and are augmented by field studies at critical localities. Because few structures can withstand displacement of their foundations, they should be located off active fault traces, the distance varying with the character of faulting, the certainty with which fault traces are known, and the importance of the structure. Recreational activities and other nonoccupancy land uses should be considered for fault zone areas where land is under pressure for development; elsewhere, such areas should remain as open space. Two methods of predicting ground shaking effects have applications to land-use decisions: (1) Relative earthquake effects can be related to firmness of the ground and can be used in a gross way to allocate population density in the absence of more sophisticated analyses; and (2) intensity maps, based on, (a) damage from former earthquakes, or (b) a qualitative analyses of geologic units added to a design earthquake, can be helpful both for general and specific plans. Theoretical models are used with caution to predict ground motion for critical structures to be located at specific sites with unique foundation conditions. Fully adequate methods of assessing possible shaking remain to be developed. Where land-use decisions do not reflect likely ground shaking effects, stringent building codes are needed, particularly for important structures. Ground failure (landsliding, ground cracking and lurching, differential settlement, sand boils, and subsidence) commonly results from liquefaction, loss of soil strength, or compaction. Areas suspected of being most likely to fail should not be developed unless detailed site studies can demonstrate the hazard does not exist or can be overcome. Various methods can be used to reduce the high, long-term public costs that follow development of unstable ground. However, areas subject to tectonic deformation generally cannot be predicted nor can effects of such deformation be minimized. Large water waves, such as produced by tsunamis, seiches, and dam failure or overtopping, can be anticipated in many places. Their effects can be lessened by land-use regulations similar to flood-plain zoning, restrictions on location of critical structures, and appropriate warning systems. Many local, state, and federal government agencies, universities, and private consultants may be able to assist planners by advising them of pertinent data and where those data can be obtained. Interpretation of the data for an evaluation of seismic risk commonly requires a team of planners, geologists, and soil and structural engineers.

Renewable chemical feedstocks from integrated liquefaction processing of lingocellulosic materials using microwave energy

Treesearch

Junming Xu; Jianchun Jiang; Chung-Yun Hse; Todd F. Shupe

2012-01-01

The objective of this investigation was to find a simple method for the production of phenolic rich products and sugar derivatives (biopolyols) via separation of liquefied lingocellulosic materials. Liquefaction of lignocellulosic materials was conducted in methanol at 180 °C for 15 min with the conversion of raw materials at about 75%. After liquefaction, the...

Climate services for adapting landslide hazard prevention measures in the Vrancea Seismic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Balteanu, Dan; Jurchescu, Marta; Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Mihai

2014-05-01

The Vrancea Seismic Region is covering an area of about 8 000 km2 in the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians and it is considered one of Europe's most intensely multi-hazard-affected areas. Due to its geomorphic traits (heterogeneous morphostructural units of flysch mountains and molasse hills and depressions), the area is strongly impacted by extreme hydro-meteorological events which are potentially enhancing the numerous damages inflicted to a dense network of human settlements. An a priori knowledge of future climate change is a useful climate service for local authorities to develop regional adapting strategies and adequate prevention/preparedness frameworks. This paper aims at integrating the results of the high-resolution climate projections over the 21st century (within the FP7 ECLISE project) into the regional landslide hazard assessment. The requirements of users (Civil Protection, Land management, local authorities) for this area refer to reliable and high-resolution spatial data on landslide and flood hazard for short and medium-term risk management strategies. An insight into the future behavior of climate variability in the Vrancea Seismic Region, based on future climate projections of three regional models, under three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 8.6), suggests a clear warming, both annually and seasonally and a rather limited annual precipitation decrease, but with a strong change of seasonality. A landslide inventory of 2485 cases (shallow and medium seated earth, debris and rock slides and earth and debris flows) was obtained based on large scale geomorphological mapping and aerial photos support (GeoEye, DigitalGlobe; provided by GoogleEarth and BingMaps). The landslides are uniformly distributed across the area, being considered representative for the entire morphostructural environment. Landslide susceptibility map was obtained using multivariate statistical analysis (logistic regression), while a relative landslide hazard index was computed based on semi-quantitative spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The generation of the landslide hazard maps relies on the heuristic approach, since a historical record of landslide occurrences, necessary to produce magnitude-frequency relations, is lacking. Based on the assumption of Sanderson et al. (1996) that slopes' morphology has adjusted, since the last glaciation, to the region's "normal" climatic conditions in all aspects including failures, it becomes clear that an extreme character of precipitation would be highly likely to generate landslides. Therefore, in order to represent the landslides triggering factor, raster maps for both time horizons (present and future) as simulated within each climate scenario have been used to illustrate the probabilistic seasonal precipitation amounts expected within a 30-year and a 100-year return period respectively. These maps, considered reliable indicators for depicting the changes in landslide occurrence probability, were standardized according to their contribution to hazard before being included in the SMCE together with the susceptibility map. The resulted hazard index maps for the two time horizons were compared aiming at detecting the future potential climate-induced changes in the spatial patterns of landslide occurrence. The outcomes mostly meet the requirements for updating the regional landslide risk management strategies.

Co-processing of carbonaceous solids and petroleum oil

DOEpatents

Gupta, Avinash; Greene, Marvin I.

1992-01-01

In a process for producing distillates from coal by a first stage thermal liquefaction followed by a catalytic hydrogenation, liquefaction solvent is added at points spaced over the length of the thermal liquefaction heater. Coal may be co-processed with petroleum oil by adding pre-hydrogenated oil to the first stage or unhydrogenated oil to the second stage.

Ethical questions in landslide management and risk reduction in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taurisano, A.; Lyche, E.; Thakur, V.; Wiig, T.; Øvrelid, K.; Devoli, G.

2012-04-01

The loss of lives caused by landslides in Norway is smaller than in other countries due to the low population density in exposed areas. However, annual economic losses from damage to properties and infrastructures are vast. Yet nationally coordinated efforts to manage and reduce landslide and snow avalanche risk are a recent challenge, having started only in the last decade. Since 2009, this has been a task of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. Ongoing work includes collection of landslide data, production of susceptibility and hazard maps, planning of mitigation measures along with monitoring and early warning systems, assistance to areal planning, providing expertise in emergencies and disseminating information to the public. These activities are realized in collaboration with the Norwegian Geological Survey (NGU), the Meteorological Institute, the Road and Railway authorities, universities and private consultant companies. As the total need for risk mitigating initiatives is by far larger than the annual budget, priority assessment is crucial. This brings about a number of ethical questions. 1. Susceptibility maps have been produced for the whole country and provide a first indication of areas with potential landslide or snow avalanche hazard, i.e. areas where special attention and expert assessments are needed before development. Areas where no potential hazard is shown can in practice be developed without further studies, which call for relatively conservative susceptibility maps. However, conservative maps are problematic as they too often increase both cost and duration of building projects beyond the reasonable. 2. Areas where hazard maps or risk mitigation initiatives will be funded are chosen by means of cost-benefits analyses which are often uncertain. How to estimate the benefits if the real probability for damage can only be judged on a very subjective level but not really calculated? As a result, we may use large amounts of money to mitigate the risk for a few houses with a yearly probability of damage of 1/300 and not do anything for an isolated farm with a yearly probability of damage larger than 1/50. 3. Is it ethical to stop the plan to construct a pedestrian and a cycling way or a new road crossing exposed to potential landslide hazard, when the delay or disapproval of the implementation of the plan itself involves a severe consequence than the actual landslide hazard? 4. Most fatalities from natural hazards in Norway happen because of snow avalanches in recreational activities. On the one hand, this suggests that one should use a large share of the annual budget to prevent this type of accident, where there are most lives to spare. On the other hand, one could argue that the voluntary exposure to hazard shouldn't be given too much priority at the expense of buildings and public infrastructures. 5. More generally, how ethical is it to use large amounts of money to manage hazards that has a remote probability to occur or that will not cause human losses or property damage, instead of for example strengthening other social demands?

76 FR 53440 - Freeport LNG Development, LP; Freeport LNG Expansion, LP; FLNG Liquefaction LLC; Notice of Intent...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-26

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. PF11-2-000] Freeport LNG Development, LP; Freeport LNG Expansion, LP; FLNG Liquefaction LLC; Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Assessment for the Planned Liquefaction Project, Request for Comments on Environmental Issues, and Notice of Public Scoping Meeting The...

Dynamic dielectric properties of a wood liquefaction system using polyethylene glycol and glycerol

Treesearch

Mengchao Zhou; Thomas L. Eberhardt; Bo Cai; Chung-Yun Hse; Hui Pan

2017-01-01

Microwave-assisted liquefaction has shown potential for rapid thermal processing of lignocellulosic biomass. The efficiency of microwave heating depends largely on the dielectric properties of the materials being heated. The objective of this study was to investigate the dynamic interactions between microwave energy and the reaction system during the liquefaction of a...

Evaluation of Horizontal Seismic Hazard of Shahrekord, Iran

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Dehkordi, M. Raeisi; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-08

This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic hazard assessment of Shahrekord, Iran. It displays the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the return period of 75, 225, 475 and 2475 years. The output of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the period from 840 to 2007. The seismic sources that affect the hazard in Shahrekord were identified within the radius of 150 km and the recurrencemore » relationships of these sources were generated. Finally four maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Shahrekord in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines for different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.« less

78 FR 5824 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-28

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent..., and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6396.htm...

Suitability aero-geophysical methods for generating conceptual soil maps and their use in the modeling of process-related susceptibility maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilch, Nils; Römer, Alexander; Jochum, Birgit; Schattauer, Ingrid

2014-05-01

In the past years, several times large-scale disasters occurred in Austria, which were characterized not only by flooding, but also by numerous shallow landslides and debris flows. Therefore, for the purpose of risk prevention, national and regional authorities also require more objective and realistic maps with information about spatially variable susceptibility of the geosphere for hazard-relevant gravitational mass movements. There are many and various proven methods and models (e.g. neural networks, logistic regression, heuristic methods) available to create such process-related (e.g. flat gravitational mass movements in soil) suszeptibility maps. But numerous national and international studies show a dependence of the suitability of a method on the quality of process data and parameter maps (f.e. Tilch & Schwarz 2011, Schwarz & Tilch 2011). In this case, it is important that also maps with detailed and process-oriented information on the process-relevant geosphere will be considered. One major disadvantage is that only occasionally area-wide process-relevant information exists. Similarly, in Austria often only soil maps for treeless areas are available. However, in almost all previous studies, randomly existing geological and geotechnical maps were used, which often have been specially adapted to the issues and objectives. This is one reason why very often conceptual soil maps must be derived from geological maps with only hard rock information, which often have a rather low quality. Based on these maps, for example, adjacent areas of different geological composition and process-relevant physical properties are razor sharp delineated, which in nature appears quite rarly. In order to obtain more realistic information about the spatial variability of the process-relevant geosphere (soil cover) and its physical properties, aerogeophysical measurements (electromagnetic, radiometric), carried out by helicopter, from different regions of Austria were interpreted. Previous studies show that, especially with radiometric measurements, the two-dimensional spatial variability of the nature of the process-relevant soil, close to the surface can be determined. In addition, the electromagnetic measurements are more important to obtain three-dimensional information of the deeper geological conditions and to improve the area-specific geological knowledge and understanding. The validation of these measurements is done with terrestrial geoelectrical measurements. So both aspects, radiometric and electromagnetic measurements, are important and subsequently, interpretation of the geophysical results can be used as the parameter maps in the modeling of more realistic susceptibility maps with respect to various processes. Within this presentation, results of geophysical measurements, the outcome and the derived parameter maps, as well as first process-oriented susceptibility maps in terms of gravitational soil mass movements will be presented. As an example results which were obtained with a heuristic method in an area in Vorarlberg (Western Austria) will be shown. References: Schwarz, L. & Tilch, N. (2011): Why are good process data so important for the modelling of landslide susceptibility maps?- EGU-Postersession "Landslide hazard and risk assessment, and landslide management" (NH 3.6), Vienna. [http://www.geologie.ac.at/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/pdf/poster/poster_2011_egu_schwarz_tilch_1.pdf] Tilch, N. & Schwarz, L. (2011): Spatial and scale-dependent variability in data quality and their influence on susceptibility maps for gravitational mass movements in soil, modelled by heuristic method.- EGU-Postersession "Landslide hazard and risk assessment, and landslide management" (NH 3.6); Vienna. [http://www.geologie.ac.at/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/pdf/poster/poster_2011_egu_tilch_schwarz.pdf

75 FR 68347 - Sabine Pass Liquefaction LLC, and Sabine Pass LNG, L.P.; Notice of Intent To Prepare an...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-05

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. PF10-24-000] Sabine Pass Liquefaction LLC, and Sabine Pass LNG, L.P.; Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Assessment for the Planned Sabine Pass Liquefaction Project and Request for Comments on Environmental Issues October 29, 2010...

Effects of catalysts on liquefaction of Agaricus versicolor (L.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durak, Halil

2016-04-01

Supercritical liquefaction process is used for producing energy from biomass. The common reaction conditions for supercritical liquefaction process are the 240-380 °C temperature range and 5-20 Mpa pressure values range. Agaricus versicolor (L.) was liquefied by acetone in an autoclave (75 mL) under high pressure with (aluminium oxide and calcium hydroxide) and without catalyst at 290 °C for producing bio-oil. The products of liquefaction (bio-oil) were analysed and characterized using various methods including elemental analysis, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. GC-MS identified 27 different compounds in the bio-oils obtained at 290 °C.

How do Japanese escape from TSUNAMI? - Disaster Prevention Education through using Hazard Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaue, Hiroaki

2013-04-01

After the disaster of the earthquake and tsunami in Tohoku, Japan in 2011, it is necessary to teach more "Disaster Prevention" in school. The government guideline for education of high school geography students emphasizes improving students' awareness of disaster prevention through acquiring geographical skills, for example reading hazard and thematic maps. The working group of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) says that the purpose of Disaster Prevention Education is to develop the following competencies: 1. To acquire knowledge about disasters in the local area and the science of disaster prevention. 2. To teach individuals to protect themselves from natural hazards. 3. To safely support other people in the local area. 4. To build a safe society during rebuilding from the disasters. "Disaster Prevention Education" is part of the "Education for Sustainable Development" (ESD) curriculum. That is, teaching disaster prevention can contribute to developing abilities for sustainable development and building a sustainable society. I have tried to develop a high school geography class about "tsunami". The aim of this class is to develop the students' competencies to acquire the knowledge about tsunami and protect themselves from it through reading a hazard map. I especially think that in geography class, students can protect themselves from disasters through learning the risks of disasters and how to escape when disasters occur. In the first part of class, I have taught the mechanism of tsunami formation and where tsunamis occur in Japan. In the second part of class, I have shown students pictures that I had taken in Tohoku, for instance Ishinomaki-City, Minamisanriku-Town, Kesen'numa-City, and taught how to read hazard maps that show where safe and dangerous places are when natural hazards occur. I think that students can understand the features of the local area and how to escape from disasters that may occur in local area by learning a hazard map. I have used a comment paper to evaluate the following competencies: 1. Students can understand the mechanism of tsunami formation and its potential for damage. 2. Students can read the hazard map. 3. Students can explain or describe a detailed plan for disaster prevention. In conclusion, many students could read hazard maps and describe a detailed plan for disaster prevention. In other words, through developing mapping skills, geography students can contribute to developing abilities for Disaster Prevention Education and building a sustainable society. Disaster Prevention Education has many requirements. For example, the MEXT working group says that Disaster Prevention Education teaching should not only deliver knowledge but also develop students' problem solving competency, and that it is important to incorporate this education within each subject area in the school.

Alkaline hydrothermal liquefaction of swine carcasses to bio-oil.

PubMed

Zheng, Ji-Lu; Zhu, Ming-Qiang; Wu, Hai-tang

2015-09-01

It is imperative that swine carcasses are disposed of safely, practically and economically. Alkaline hydrothermal liquefaction of swine carcasses to bio-oil was performed. Firstly, the effects of temperature, reaction time and pH value on the yield of each liquefaction product were determined. Secondly, liquefaction products, including bio-oil and solid residue, were characterized. Finally, the energy recovery ratio (ERR), which was defined as the energy of the resultant products compared to the energy input of the material, was investigated. Our experiment shows that reaction time had certain influence on the yield of liquefaction products, but temperature and pH value had bigger influence on the yield of liquefaction products. Yields of 62.2wt% bio-oil, having a high heating value of 32.35MJ/kg and a viscosity of 305cp, and 22wt% solid residue were realized at a liquefaction temperature of 250°C, a reaction time of 60min and a pH value of 9.0. The bio-oil contained up to hundreds of different chemical components that may be classified according to functional groups. Typical compound classes in the bio-oil were hydrocarbons, organic acids, esters, ketones and heterocyclics. The energy recovery ratio (ERR) reached 93.63%. The bio-oil is expected to contribute to fossil fuel replacement in stationary applications, including boilers and furnaces, and upgrading processes for the bio-oil may be used to obtain liquid transport fuels. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land subsidence susceptibility and hazard mapping: the case of Amyntaio Basin, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzampoglou, P.; Loupasakis, C.

2017-09-01

Landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping has been applying for more than 20 years succeeding the assessment of the landslide risk and the mitigation the phenomena. On the contrary, equivalent maps aiming to study and mitigate land subsidence phenomena caused by the overexploitation of the aquifers are absent from the international literature. The current study focuses at the Amyntaio basin, located in West Macedonia at Florina prefecture. As proved by numerous studies the wider area has been severely affected by the overexploitation of the aquifers, caused by the mining and the agricultural activities. The intensive ground water level drop has triggered extensive land subsidence phenomena, especially at the perimeter of the open pit coal mine operating at the site, causing damages to settlements and infrastructure. The land subsidence susceptibility and risk maps were produced by applying the semi-quantitative WLC (Weighted Linear Combination) method, especially calibrated for this particular catastrophic event. The results were evaluated by using detailed field mapping data referring to the spatial distribution of the surface ruptures caused by the subsidence. The high correlation between the produced maps and the field mapping data, have proved the great value of the maps and of the applied technique on the management and the mitigation of the phenomena. Obviously, these maps can be safely used by decision-making authorities for the future urban safety development.

Survival of Legionella in earthquake-induced soil disturbance (liquefaction) in residential areas, Christchurch, New Zealand: implications for disease.

PubMed

Graham, Frances F; Harte, David Jg

2017-05-12

To investigate a possible link between liquefaction dust exposure and the noticeable increase in legionellosis cases in response to major earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 that resulted in widespread soil disturbance (liquefaction) in parts of Christchurch, New Zealand. We culture tested liquefaction-affected soil for Legionella spp. in the six months following the first earthquake in 2010. Thirty silt samples were collected randomly from locations within Christchurch's metropolitan area that were affected by liquefaction. The samples were tested to determine the presence of Legionella using qualitative and quantitative methods. Liquefaction-affected soil samples from three sites were further subjected to particle size distribution analysis and determination of major oxides. A controlled field study was established using six silt samples and one control (commercial compost), seeded with a wild-type strain of Legionella bozemanae serogroup (sg) 1 and persistence monitored over a 60-day period by culturing for the presence of Legionella. Dry matter determinations were undertaken so that total Legionella could be calculated on a dry weight basis. Legionella bacteria were undetectable after day one in the silt samples. However, L. bozemanae sg1 was detected in the control sample for the entire study period. This study showed that the liquefaction-affected soil could not contribute directly to the observed increase in legionellosis cases after the earthquakes due to its inability to support growth and survival of the Legionella bacteria.

Retesting of liquefaction and nonliquefaction case histories from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, R.E.S.; Kayen, R.E.; Tong, L.-Y.; Liu, S.-Y.; Cai, G.-J.; Wu, J.

2011-01-01

A field investigation was performed to retest liquefaction and nonliquefaction sites from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. These sites were carefully investigated in 1978 and 1979 by using standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) equipment; however, the CPT measurements are obsolete because of the now nonstandard cone that was used at the time. In 2007, a modern cone was mobilized to retest 18 selected sites that are particularly important because of the intense ground shaking they sustained despite their high fines content and/or because the site did not liquefy. Of the sites reinvestigated and carefully reprocessed, 13 were considered accurate representative case histories. Two of the sites that were originally investigated for liquefaction have been reinvestigated for cyclic failure of fine-grained soil and removed from consideration for liquefaction triggering. The most important outcome of these field investigations was the collection of more accurate data for three nonliquefaction sites that experienced intense ground shaking. Data for these three case histories is now included in an area of the liquefaction triggering database that was poorly populated and will help constrain the upper bound of future liquefaction triggering curves. ?? 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Assessment of liquefaction potential during earthquakes by arias intensity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, R.E.; Mitchell, J.K.

1997-01-01

An Arias intensity approach to assess the liquefaction potential of soil deposits during earthquakes is proposed, using an energy-based measure of the severity of earthquake-shaking recorded on seismograms of the two horizontal components of ground motion. Values representing the severity of strong motion at depth in the soil column are associated with the liquefaction resistance of that layer, as measured by in situ penetration testing (SPT, CPT). This association results in a magnitude-independent boundary that envelopes initial liquefaction of soil in Arias intensity-normalized penetration resistance space. The Arias intensity approach is simple to apply and has proven to be highly reliable in assessing liquefaction potential. The advantages of using Arias intensity as a measure of earthquake-shaking severity in liquefaction assessment are: Arias intensity is derived from integration of the entire seismogram wave form, incorporating both the amplitude and duration elements of ground motion; all frequencies of recorded motion are considered; and Arias intensity is an appropriate measure to use when evaluating field penetration test methodologies that are inherently energy-based. Predictor equations describing the attenuation of Arias intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude and source distance are presented for rock, deep-stiff alluvium, and soft soil sites.

Estimation of earthquake effects associated with a great earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hopper, Margaret G.; Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore; Dobrovolny, Ernest E.

1983-01-01

Estimates have been made of the effects of a large Ms = 8.6, Io = XI earthquake hypothesed to occur anywhere in the New Madrid seismic zone. The estimates are based on the distributions of intensities associated with the earthquakes of 1811-12, 1843 and 1895 although the effects of other historical shocks are also considered. The resulting composite type intensity map for a maximum intensity XI is believed to represent the upper level of shaking likely to occur. Specific intensity maps have been developed for six cities near the epicentral region taking into account the most likely distribution of site response in each city. Intensities found are: IX for Carbondale, IL; VIII and IX for Evansville, IN; VI and VIII for Little Rock, AR; IX and X for Memphis, TN; VIII, IX, and X for Paducah, KY; and VIII and X for Poplar Bluff, MO. On a regional scale, intensities are found to attenuate from the New Madrid seismic zone most rapidly to the west and southwest sides of the zone, most slowly to the northwest along the Mississippi River, on the northeast along the Ohio River, and on the southeast toward Georgia and South Carolina. Intensities attenuate toward the north, east, and south in a more normal fashion. Known liquefaction effects are documented but much more research is needed to define the liquefaction potential.

Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Son, S.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

The California Tsunami Program coordinated by CalOES and CGS in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine ';safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. This presentation will focus on the results from five California ports and harbors, and will include feedback we have received from initial discussion with local harbor masters and port authorities. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Simulation and statistical analysis for the optimization of nitrogen liquefaction plant with cryogenic Claude cycle using process modeling tool: ASPEN HYSYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, D. M.

2017-09-01

Cryogenic technology is used for liquefaction of many gases and it has several applications in food process engineering. Temperatures below 123 K are considered to be in the field of cryogenics. Extreme low temperatures are a basic need for many industrial processes and have several applications, such as superconductivity of magnets, space, medicine and gas industries. Several methods can be used to obtain the low temperatures required for liquefaction of gases. The process of cooling or refrigerating a gas to a temperature below its critical temperature so that liquid can be formed at some suitable pressure, which is below the critical pressure, is the basic liquefaction process. Different cryogenic cycle configurations are designed for getting the liquefied form of gases at different temperatures. Each of the cryogenic cycles like Linde cycle, Claude cycle, Kapitza cycle or modified Claude cycle has its own advantages and disadvantages. The placement of heat exchangers, Joule-Thompson valve and turboexpander decides the configuration of a cryogenic cycle. Each configuration has its own efficiency according to the application. Here, a nitrogen liquefaction plant is used for the analysis purpose. The process modeling tool ASPEN HYSYS can provide a software simulation approach before the actual implementation of the plant in the field. This paper presents the simulation and statistical analysis of the Claude cycle with the process modeling tool ASPEN HYSYS. It covers the technique used to optimize the liquefaction of the plant. The simulation results so obtained can be used as a reference for the design and optimization of the nitrogen liquefaction plant. Efficient liquefaction will give the best performance and productivity to the plant.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

Blast Induced Liquefaction Potential and Transient Porewater Pressure Response of Saturated Sands.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-10-15

14 2. CartquresIbducityGroundNotion.................... ... 16 .omaio fLefaction Mechsmse................ 17 . Pl...soil-water system by a factor of 16 , and reduce the wave propagation velocity by a factor of four. While liquefaction of materials containing air bubbles...restore the 16 effective stress. Low permeability soils, such as fine silts and low sensitivity clays, are not usually prone to liquefaction. Coarse silts

77 FR 31372 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-25

... West Baxter Avenue, Knoxville, TN 37917. Leon County, Texas, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for.... Unincorporated Areas of Leon County.... Leon County Judge's Office, 130 East St. Marys, Centerville, TX 75833...

Monte Carlo simulation for slip rate sensitivity analysis in Cimandiri fault area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pratama, Cecep, E-mail: great.pratama@gmail.com; Meilano, Irwan; Nugraha, Andri Dian

Slip rate is used to estimate earthquake recurrence relationship which is the most influence for hazard level. We examine slip rate contribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years or 500 years return period). Hazard curve of PGA have been investigated for Sukabumi using a PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). We observe that the most influence in the hazard estimate is crustal fault. Monte Carlo approach has been developed to assess the sensitivity. Then, Monte Carlo simulations properties have been assessed. Uncertainty and coefficient of variation from slip rate formore » Cimandiri Fault area has been calculated. We observe that seismic hazard estimates is sensitive to fault slip rate with seismic hazard uncertainty result about 0.25 g. For specific site, we found seismic hazard estimate for Sukabumi is between 0.4904 – 0.8465 g with uncertainty between 0.0847 – 0.2389 g and COV between 17.7% – 29.8%.« less

Prevention of deleterious deposits in a coal liquefaction system

DOEpatents

Carr, Norman L.; Prudich, Michael E.; King, Jr., William E.; Moon, William G.

1984-07-03

A process for preventing the formation of deleterious coke deposits on the walls of coal liquefaction reactor vessels involves passing hydrogen and a feed slurry comprising feed coal and recycle liquid solvent to a coal liquefaction reaction zone while imparting a critical mixing energy of at least 3500 ergs per cubic centimeter of reaction zone volume per second to the reacting slurry.

Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees

2013-04-01

In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. This paper presents the main components of the SDSS and the overall design and plans for the user interface.

Liquefaction for cataract extraction

PubMed Central

Labiris, Georgios; Toli, Aspasia; Polychroni, Damaskini; Gkika, Maria; Angelonias, Dimitrios; Kozobolis, Vassilios P.

2016-01-01

A systematic review of the recent literature regarding the implementation of the liquefaction in cataract surgery and its short-term and long-term outcomes in various parameters that affect the quality of patients' life, including visual rehabilitation and possible complications was performed based on the PubMed, Medline, Nature and the American Academy of Ophthalmology databases in November 2013 and data from 14 comparative studies were included in this narrative review. Liquefaction is an innovative technology for cataract extraction that uses micropulses of balanced salt solution to liquefy the lens nucleus. Most studies reported that liquefaction is a reliable technology for mild to moderate cataracts, while fragmentation difficulties may be encountered with harder nuclei. PMID:26949656

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Marano, K.D.; Hotovec, A.J.; Lin, K.; Hearne, M.G.

2009-01-01

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page ( http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ eqcenter/pager/prodandref/ ). ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Flood Vulnerability Assessment Map

EIA Publications

Maps of energy infrastructure with real-time storm and emergency information by fuel type and by state. Flood hazard information from FEMA has been combined with EIA's energy infrastructure layers as a tool to help state, county, city, and private sector planners assess which key energy infrastructure assets are vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm surges, and flash flooding. Note that flood hazard layers must be zoomed-in to street level before they become visible.

An offline-online Web-GIS Android application for fast data acquisition of landslide hazard and risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2017-04-01

Regional landslide assessments and mapping have been effectively pursued by research institutions, national and local governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and different stakeholders for some time, and a wide range of methodologies and technologies have consequently been proposed. Land-use mapping and hazard event inventories are mostly created by remote-sensing data, subject to difficulties, such as accessibility and terrain, which need to be overcome. Likewise, landslide data acquisition for the field navigation can magnify the accuracy of databases and analysis. Open-source Web and mobile GIS tools can be used for improved ground-truthing of critical areas to improve the analysis of hazard patterns and triggering factors. This paper reviews the implementation and selected results of a secure mobile-map application called ROOMA (Rapid Offline-Online Mapping Application) for the rapid data collection of landslide hazard and risk. This prototype assists the quick creation of landslide inventory maps (LIMs) by collecting information on the type, feature, volume, date, and patterns of landslides using open-source Web-GIS technologies such as Leaflet maps, Cordova, GeoServer, PostgreSQL as the real DBMS (database management system), and PostGIS as its plug-in for spatial database management. This application comprises Leaflet maps coupled with satellite images as a base layer, drawing tools, geolocation (using GPS and the Internet), photo mapping, and event clustering. All the features and information are recorded into a GeoJSON text file in an offline version (Android) and subsequently uploaded to the online mode (using all browsers) with the availability of Internet. Finally, the events can be accessed and edited after approval by an administrator and then be visualized by the general public.

The Spatial Assessment of the Current Seismic Hazard State for Hard Rock Underground Mines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesseloo, Johan

2018-06-01

Mining-induced seismic hazard assessment is an important component in the management of safety and financial risk in mines. As the seismic hazard is a response to the mining activity, it is non-stationary and variable both in space and time. This paper presents an approach for implementing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to assess the current hazard state of a mine. Each of the components of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is considered within the context of hard rock underground mines. The focus of this paper is the assessment of the in-mine hazard distribution and does not consider the hazard to nearby public or structures. A rating system and methodologies to present hazard maps, for the purpose of communicating to different stakeholders in the mine, i.e. mine managers, technical personnel and the work force, are developed. The approach allows one to update the assessment with relative ease and within short time periods as new data become available, enabling the monitoring of the spatial and temporal change in the seismic hazard.

Tsunami hazard, vulnerability and impact assessment of the coastal area of Rabat, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesne, Olivia; Mangin, Antoine; Renou, Camille; Rouffi, Frédéric; Atillah, Abderrahman; Moudni, Hicham

2010-05-01

Among African countries, Morocco is probably one of the most exposed to tsunami hazard. Indeed, Morocco is integrated in the particular geodynamic context of the northern African margin characterized by the existence of the Azores-Gibraltar fault separating two active tectonic plates: the African and the Eurasian plates. This area generated and still generates many large earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 6. The Moroccan Atlantic coasts are thus exposed to tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring offshore. Tsunamis generated in this area are not frequent but can be really disastrous and could have a huge impact. In the framework of the SCHEMA project, a 3 year European project, we studied the consequences on the Moroccan coastal area of two potential tsunami scenarios, applying the generic methodology developed during the project for building tsunami vulnerability and impact maps. The study focuses on the "Rabat Zaïr" region. Centred on the Bouregreg Valley, this study area encompasses three main coastal and densely populated towns of Morocco: Rabat (capital), Salé and Temara. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, earth observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this highly vulnerable area (flat topography, small beaches with many tourists in summer, presence of several bridges on the Bouregreg river separating Rabat and Salé, presence of a dam upstream the 2 cities, and development of a new residential and touristic complex on the coastline and in the vicinity of the estuary). Two scenarios of tsunami have been studied to estimate the hazard on the coastal zone of Rabat: a worst case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 as well as a moderate scenario based on the historical Portugal earthquake of 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed to produce inundation maps consisting of inundation limits as well as maximum water heights. Land use data together with earth observation data interpretation allowed then to generate a building classification. Finally potential damages are derived using damage functions developed during the project by Geosciences Consultants (GSC), by crossing information from hazard maps (maximum water elevations) with building vulnerability maps. The damage maps will then serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes useful for decision makers, local authorities and investors.

Geotechnical and Surface Wave Investigation of Liquefaction and Strong Motion Instrumentation sites of the Denali Fault, Mw 7.9, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayen, R.; Thompson, E.; Minasian, D.; Collins, B.; Moss, R.; Sitar, N.; Carver, G.

2003-12-01

Following the Mw 7.9 earthquake on the Denali and Totschunda faults on 3 November 2002, we conducted two investigations to map the regional extent and severity of liquefaction ground failures and assess the geotechnical properties of these sites, as well as profile the soil properties beneath three seismometers located at Alyeska Pump Stations 9, 10, and 11. The most noteworthy observations are that liquefaction damage was focused towards the eastern end of the rupture area. For example, liquefaction features in the river bars of the Tanana River, north of the fault-break, are sparsely located from Fairbanks to Delta, but are pervasive throughout the eastern area of the break to Northway Junction, the eastern limit of our survey. Likewise, for the four glacier-proximal rivers draining toward the north, little or no liquefaction was observed on the western Delta and Johnson Rivers, whereas the eastern Robertson River and non-glacial Tok River, and especially the Nabesna River, had observable-to-abundant fissures and sand vents. Several rivers systems were studied in detail. The Nabesna River emerges from its glacier, and drains and fines northward as it crosses the fault zone resulting in an asymmetrical liquefaction pattern. South of the fault, falling liquefaction resistance of soil (fining from sandy gravel to gravely sand) and rising loads from ground motions (approaching the fault) abruptly intersect such that there is a well defined, narrow, soil transition from undisturbed-to-fully liquefied approximately 5 kilometers from the fault. North of the fault, both liquefaction resistance (continued fining) and ground motions fall in tandem, leaving a much broader zone of liquefaction. The Delta River liquefaction occurrence is more complex, where side-entering glacial rivers form non-liquefiable gravel fans and alter the composition and compactness of the main-stem deposits. Immediately upstream of the gravelly Canwell glacier tributary, and immediately at the fault crossing, liquefaction features are abundant. To characterize soil properties, we used a portable continuous sine wave-spectral analysis of surface waves (CSS-SASW) apparatus to profile the shear wave velocity of the ground, and an auger to profile the corresponding texture of the river deposits. We occupied 25 liquefaction evaluation test sites along with the three Alyeska seismometer sites. On the Nabesna, Delta and other rivers, we only find liquefaction features in soil deposits where normalized shear wave velocities fall below 225 m/s. Severity of fissures and lateral spreads dramatically increase in soils as the velocities fall, especially below 170 m/s. In some cases, the most pronounced ground failures are far from the fault zone (60-100 km) in extremely loose, low velocity fine sands. Geotechnical testing performed on field samples revealed that liquefied soils ranged from well graded sandy gravels in close proximity to the fault (< 5km) to silty sands and low plasticity silts at greater distances. At the Alyeska pump station seismometer sites, we are able to invert profiles of shear wave velocity to depths of 140-200 meters. The averaged NEHRP (30 meter) velocities for pump stations 9, 10, and 11 are 376 m/s, 316 m/s, and 362 m/s, respectively.

The effects of vent location, event scale and time forecasts on pyroclastic density current hazard maps at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Neri, Augusto; Bisson, Marina; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Flandoli, Franco; Isaia, Roberto; Rosi, Mauro; Vitale, Stefano

2017-09-01

This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modelled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of 25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e. including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.

High-resolution electrical resistivity and aeromagnetic imaging reveal the causative fault of the 2009 Mw 6.0 Karonga, Malawi earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolawole, F.; Atekwana, E. A.; Laó-Dávila, D. A.; Abdelsalam, M. G.; Chindandali, P. R.; Salima, J.; Kalindekafe, L.

2018-05-01

Seismic events of varying magnitudes have been associated with ruptures along unknown or incompletely mapped buried faults. The 2009 Mw 6.0 Karonga, Malawi earthquake caused a surface rupture length of 14-18 km along a single W-dipping fault [St. Mary Fault (SMF)] on the hanging wall of the North Basin of the Malawi Rift. Prior to this earthquake, there was no known surface expression or knowledge of the presence of this fault. Although the earthquake damage zone is characterized by surface ruptures and coseismic liquefaction-induced sand blows, the origin of the causative fault and the near-surface structure of the rupture zone are not known. We used high-resolution aeromagnetic and electrical resistivity data to elucidate the relationship between surface rupture locations and buried basement structures. We also acquired electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles along and across the surface rupture zone to image the near-surface structure of the damaged zone. We applied mathematical derivative filters to the aeromagnetic data to enhance basement structures underlying the rupture zone and surrounding areas. Although several magnetic lineaments are visible in the basement, mapped surface ruptures align with a single 37 km long, 148°-162°—striking magnetic lineament, and is interpreted as the ruptured normal fault. Inverted ERT profiles reveal three regional geoelectric layers which consist of 15 m thick layer of discontinuous zones of high and low resistivity values, underlain by a 27 m thick zone of high electrical resistivity (up to 100 Ω m) and a basal layer of lower resistivity (1.0-6.0 Ω m) extending from 42 m depth downwards (the maximum achieved depth of investigation). The geoelectric layers are truncated by a zone of electrical disturbance (electrical mélange) coinciding with areas of coseismic surface rupturing and sediment liquefaction along the ruptured. Our study shows that the 2009 Karonga earthquake was associated with the partial rupture of the buried SMF, and illuminates other potential seismogenic buried faults within the Karonga area of the North Basin. Although our electrical surveys were conducted 6 yr after the 2009 Karonga earthquake, we observe that near-surface lenses of electrically conductive sediments imaged by our ERT profiles, coincide with zones of coseismic surface rupture and liquefaction sand blows. We suggest that the presence of these preserved near-surface lenses of potentially water-saturated sand pose potential hazard in the event of a future earthquake in the area. In addition, our ERT profiles reveal structures that could represent relics of previous earthquake events along the SMF. In addition, our study demonstrates that the integration of ERT and aeromagnetic data can be very useful in illuminating seismogenic buried faults, thereby significantly improving seismic hazard analysis in tectonically active areas.

The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake: Global lessons for earthquake hazard in intra-plate regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schweig, E.; Gomberg, J.; Petersen, M.; Ellis, M.; Bodin, P.; Mayrose, L.; Rastogi, B.K.

2003-01-01

The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh District of the State of Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, and was one of the most damaging intraplate earthquakes ever recorded. This earthquake is in many ways similar to the three great New Madrid earthquakes that occurred in the central United States in 1811-1812, An Indo-US team is studying the similarities and differences of these sequences in order to learn lessons for earthquake hazard in intraplate regions. Herein we present some preliminary conclusions from that study. Both the Kutch and New Madrid regions have rift type geotectonic setting. In both regions the strain rates are of the order of 10-9/yr and attenuation of seismic waves as inferred from observations of intensity and liquefaction are low. These strain rates predict recurrence intervals for Bhuj or New Madrid sized earthquakes of several thousand years or more. In contrast, intervals estimated from paleoseismic studies and from other independent data are significantly shorter, probably hundreds of years. All these observations together may suggest that earthquakes relax high ambient stresses that are locally concentrated by rheologic heterogeneities, rather than loading by plate-tectonic forces. The latter model generally underlies basic assumptions made in earthquake hazard assessment, that the long-term average rate of energy released by earthquakes is determined by the tectonic loading rate, which thus implies an inherent average periodicity of earthquake occurrence. Interpreting the observations in terms of the former model therefore may require re-examining the basic assumptions of hazard assessment.

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.

Investigation of bio-composites using Novolac type liquefied wood resin: effects of liquefaction and fabrication conditions

Treesearch

Hui Pan; Chung-Yun Hse; Todd F. Shupe

2009-01-01

Wood liquefaction using an organic solvent and an acid catalyst has long been studied as a novel technique to utilize biomass as an alternative to petroleum-based products. Oxalic acid is a weaker organic acid than a mineral acid and wood liquefaction with oxalic acid as a catalyst will result in a higher amount of wood residue than that with a mineral acid....

Microwave-assisted liquefaction of wood with polyhydric alcohols and its application in preparation of polyurethane (PU) foams

Treesearch

Hui Pan; Zhifeng Zheng; Chung-Yun Hse

2012-01-01

Microwave radiation was used as the heating source in southern pine wood liquefaction with PEG/ glycerin binary solvent. It was found that microwave heating was more efficient than conventional oil bath heating for wood liquefaction. The wood residue content of the H2SO4 catalyzed liquefied wood dropped to zero within 5 min with microwave heating. The resulting...

Integrated coal liquefaction process

DOEpatents

Effron, Edward

1978-01-01

In a process for the liquefaction of coal in which coal liquids containing phenols and other oxygenated compounds are produced during the liquefaction step and later hydrogenated, oxygenated compounds are removed from at least part of the coal liquids in the naphtha and gas oil boiling range prior to the hydrogenation step and employed as a feed stream for the manufacture of a synthesis gas or for other purposes.

Extraction and characterization of holocellulose fibers by microwave-assisted selective liquefaction of bamboo

Treesearch

Jiulong Xie; Chung Hse; Todd F. Shupe; Hui Pan; Tingxing Hu

2016-01-01

Microwave-assisted selective liquefaction was proposed and used as a novel method for the isolation of holocellulose fibers. The results showed that the bamboo lignin component and extractives were almost completely removed by using a liquefaction process at 120 8C for 9 min, and the residual lignin and extractives in the solid residue were as low as 0.65% and 0.49%,...

Earth science: lasting earthquake legacy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Thomas E.

2009-01-01

On 31 August 1886, a magnitude-7 shock struck Charleston, South Carolina; low-level activity continues there today. One view of seismic hazard is that large earthquakes will return to New Madrid and Charleston at intervals of about 500 years. With expected ground motions that would be stronger than average, that prospect produces estimates of earthquake hazard that rival those at the plate boundaries marked by the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone. The result is two large 'bull's-eyes' on the US National Seismic Hazard Maps — which, for example, influence regional building codes and perceptions of public safety.

Microwave-assisted liquefaction of wood with polyhydric alcohols and its application in preparation of polyurethane (PU) foams

Treesearch

Hui Pan; Zhifeng Zheng; Chung Y. Hse

2011-01-01

Microwave radiation was used as the heating source in southern pine wood liquefaction with PEG/glycerin binary solvent. It was found that microwave heating was more efficient than conventional oil bath heating for wood liquefaction. The wood residue content of the H2SO4 catalyzed liquefied wood dropped to zero within 5 min with microwave heating. The resulting...

Comparison of the sand liquefaction estimated based on codes and practical earthquake damage phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Yi; Huang, Yahong

2017-12-01

Conducting sand liquefaction estimated based on codes is the important content of the geotechnical design. However, the result, sometimes, fails to conform to the practical earthquake damages. Based on the damage of Tangshan earthquake and engineering geological conditions, three typical sites are chosen. Moreover, the sand liquefaction probability was evaluated on the three sites by using the method in the Code for Seismic Design of Buildings and the results were compared with the sand liquefaction phenomenon in the earthquake. The result shows that the difference between sand liquefaction estimated based on codes and the practical earthquake damage is mainly attributed to the following two aspects: The primary reasons include disparity between seismic fortification intensity and practical seismic oscillation, changes of groundwater level, thickness of overlying non-liquefied soil layer, local site effect and personal error. Meanwhile, although the judgment methods in the codes exhibit certain universality, they are another reason causing the above difference due to the limitation of basic data and the qualitative anomaly of the judgment formulas.

Effect of residence time on two-step liquefaction of rice straw in a CO2 atmosphere: Differences between subcritical water and supercritical ethanol.

PubMed

Yang, Tianhua; Wang, Jian; Li, Bingshuo; Kai, Xingping; Li, Rundong

2017-04-01

This study investigated the influence of temperature and residence time on liquefaction of rice straw in subcritical CO 2 -subcritical water (subCO 2 -subH 2 O) and in subcritical CO 2 -supercritical ethanol (subCO 2 -scEtOH), considering the final reaction temperatures (270-345°C) and residence times (15 and 30min). Residence time was identified as a crucial parameter in the subCO 2 -subH 2 O liquefaction, whereas residence time had a marginal influence on subCO 2 -scEtOH liquefaction. When reaction conditions were 320°C and 15min, solvents have weak impact on the quality of bio-oil, HHV 28.57MJ/kg and 28.62MJ/kg, respectively. There was an obvious difference between the subCO 2 -subH 2 O and subCO 2 -scEtOH liquefaction mechanisms. In subCO 2 -subH 2 O, CO 2 promoted the carbonyl reaction. In subCO 2 -scEtOH, supercritical ethanol have the function of donating hydrogen and promoting the reaction of hydroxyl-alkylation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

2014-05-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum magnitude in 50 years and the corresponding expected ground shaking intensity in a cell g of a uniform grid of the region of interest. Then such a seismic hazard map is used to generate earthquake risk maps based on the exposed population density. Some oversimplified convolutions R(g) = H(g)•gP•F(gP) of seismic hazard assessment maps H(g) are applied in a few regions with population density distribution P of vulnerability V=F(gP), where g is a cell of a uniform grid and gP is the integral of the population density over the cell g.

Fault Specific Seismic Hazard Maps as Input to Loss Reserves Calculation for Attica Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannakis, Georgios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Zimbidis, Alexandros; Roberts, Gerald

2014-05-01

Greece is prone to various natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods, landslides and earthquakes, due to the special environmental and geological conditions dominating in tectonic plate boundaries. Seismic is the predominant risk, in terms of damages and casualties in the Greek territory. The historical record of earthquakes in Greece has been published from various researchers, providing useful data in seismic hazard assessment of Greece. However, the completeness of the historical record in Greece, despite being one of the longest worldwide, reaches only 500 years for M ≥ 7.3 and less than 200 years for M ≥ 6.5. Considering that active faults in the area have recurrence intervals of a few hundred to several thousands of years, it is clear that many active faults have not been activated during the completeness period covered by the historical records. New Seismic Hazard Assessment methodologies tend to follow fault specific approaches where seismic sources are geologically constrained active faults, in order to address problems related to the historical records incompleteness, obtain higher spatial resolution and calculate realistic source locality distances, since seismic sources are very accurately located. Fault specific approaches provide quantitative assessments as they measure fault slip rates from geological data, providing a more reliable estimate of seismic hazard. We used a fault specific seismic hazard assessment approach for the region of Attica. The method of seismic hazard mapping from geological fault throw-rate data combined three major factors: Empirical data which combine fault rupture lengths, earthquake magnitudes and coseismic slip relationships. The radiuses of VI, VII, VIII and IX isoseismals on the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. Attenuation - amplification functions for seismic shaking on bedrock compared to basin filling sediments. We explicitly modeled 22 active faults that could affect the region of Attica, including Athens, using detailed data derived from published papers, neotectonic maps and fieldwork observations. Moreover, we incorporated background seismicity models from the historic record and also the subduction zone earthquakes distribution, for the integration of strong deep earthquakes that could also affect Attica region. We created 4 high spatial resolution seismic hazard maps for the region of Attica, one for each of the intensities VII - X (MM). These maps offer a locality specific shaking recurrence record, which represents the long-term shaking record in a more complete way, since they incorporate several seismic cycles of the active faults that could affect Attica. Each one of these high resolution seismic hazard maps displays both the spatial distribution and the recurrence, over a specific time period, of the relevant intensity. Time - independent probabilities were extracted based on these average recurrence intervals, using the stationary Poisson model P = 1 -e-Λt. The 'Λ' value was provided by the intensities recurrence, as displayed in the seismic hazard maps. However, the insurance contracts usually lack of detailed spatial information and they refer to Postal Codes level, akin to CRESTA zones. To this end, a time-independent probability of shaking at intensities VII - X was calculated for every Postal Code, for a given time period, using the Poisson model. The reserves calculation on buildings portfolio combines the probability of events of specific intensities within the Postal Codes, with the buildings characteristics, such as the building construction type and the insured value. We propose a standard approach for the reserves calculation K(t) for a specific time period: K (t) = x2 ·[x1 ·y1 ·P1(t) + x1 ·y2 ·P2(t) + x1 ·y3 ·P3(t) + x1 ·y4 ·P4(t)] x1 which is a function of the probabilities of occurrence for the seismic intensities VII - X (P1(t) -P4(t)) for the same period, the value of the building x1, the insured value x2 and the characteristics of the building, such as the construction type, age, height and use of property (y1 - y4). Furthermore a stochastic approach is also adopted in order to obtain the relevant reserve value K(t) for the specific time period. This calculation considers a set of simulations from the Poisson random variable and then taking the respective expectations.

B-value and slip rate sensitivity analysis for PGA value in Lembang fault and Cimandiri fault area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratama, Cecep; Ito, Takeo; Meilano, Irwan; Nugraha, Andri Dian

2017-07-01

We examine slip rate and b-value contribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedence in 50 years or 500 years return period). Hazard curve of PGA have been investigated for Sukabumi and Bandung using a PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). We observe that the most influence in the hazard estimate is crustal fault. Monte Carlo approach has been developed to assess the sensitivity. Uncertainty and coefficient of variation from slip rate and b-value in Lembang and Cimandiri Fault area have been calculated. We observe that seismic hazard estimates are sensitive to fault slip rate and b-value with uncertainty result are 0.25 g dan 0.1-0.2 g, respectively. For specific site, we found seismic hazard estimate are 0.49 + 0.13 g with COV 27% and 0.39 + 0.05 g with COV 13% for Sukabumi and Bandung, respectively.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2013-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Progress in donor assisted coal liquefaction: Hydroaromatic compound formation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kottenstette, R.J.; Stephens, H.P.

1993-12-31

The role of hydrogen donor compounds in coal liquefaction has been extensively investigated since the mid 1960`s using model compounds and process derived hydrogen donor solvents. Our recent research and that of other investigators have shown that two model compounds in particular have great efficacy in solvating low rank coals. 1,2,3,10b tetrahydrofluoranthene (H{sub 4}Fl) and 1,2,3,6,7,8 hexahydropyrene (H{sub 6}Py) have been used to dissolve Wyodak coal to > 95% soluble material as measured by tetrahydrofuran (THF). Although these hydrogen donors are very effective, they may not be found in any significant concentrations in actual liquefaction process recycle solvents. Therefore, studiesmore » with process derived recycle materials are necessary to understand donor solvent chemistry. The objective of this paper is to present results of solvent hydrogenation experiments using heavy distillate solvents produced during testing at the Wilsonville Advanced Coal Liquefaction Test Facility. We evaluated the impact of hydrogenation conditions upon hydrogen donor formation in process derived distillates and compared these process derived solvents with the highly effective H{sub 4}Fl and H{sub 6}Py donors in coal liquefaction tests. This paper presents data on reaction conditions used for distillate hydrotreating and subsequent coal liquefaction, with an aim toward understanding the relationship between reaction conditions and donor solvent quality in recycle distillates.« less

Earthquake Hazard and the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serva, Leonello; Vittori, Eutizio; Comerci, Valerio; Esposito, Eliana; Guerrieri, Luca; Michetti, Alessandro Maria; Mohammadioun, Bagher; Mohammadioun, Georgianna C.; Porfido, Sabina; Tatevossian, Ruben E.

2016-05-01

The main objective of this paper was to introduce the Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI), a new scale developed and tested by an interdisciplinary group of scientists (geologists, geophysicists and seismologists) in the frame of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) activities, to the widest community of earth scientists and engineers dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This scale defines earthquake intensity by taking into consideration the occurrence, size and areal distribution of earthquake environmental effects (EEE), including surface faulting, tectonic uplift and subsidence, landslides, rock falls, liquefaction, ground collapse and tsunami waves. Indeed, EEEs can significantly improve the evaluation of seismic intensity, which still remains a critical parameter for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, allowing to compare historical and modern earthquakes. Moreover, as shown by recent moderate to large earthquakes, geological effects often cause severe damage"; therefore, their consideration in the earthquake risk scenario is crucial for all stakeholders, especially urban planners, geotechnical and structural engineers, hazard analysts, civil protection agencies and insurance companies. The paper describes background and construction principles of the scale and presents some case studies in different continents and tectonic settings to illustrate its relevant benefits. ESI is normally used together with traditional intensity scales, which, unfortunately, tend to saturate in the highest degrees. In this case and in unpopulated areas, ESI offers a unique way for assessing a reliable earthquake intensity. Finally, yet importantly, the ESI scale also provides a very convenient guideline for the survey of EEEs in earthquake-stricken areas, ensuring they are catalogued in a complete and homogeneous manner.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2014-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

PubMed

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-10-28

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

PubMed Central

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-01-01

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics - A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sébastien; Falcone, Jean-Luc; Bonadonna, Costanza; Di Traglia, Federico; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Lestuzzi, Pierino

2016-10-01

We present a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard posed by volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) and their potential impact on the built environment. A model named Great Balls of Fire (GBF) is introduced to describe ballistic trajectories of VBPs accounting for a variable drag coefficient and topography. It relies on input parameters easily identifiable in the field and is designed to model large numbers of VBPs stochastically. Associated functions come with the GBF code to post-process model outputs into a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for VBP impacts. Outcomes include probability maps to exceed given thresholds of kinetic energies at impact, hazard curves and probabilistic isoenergy maps. Probabilities are calculated either on equally-sized pixels or zones of interest. The approach is calibrated, validated and applied to La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island (Italy). We constructed a generic eruption scenario based on stratigraphic studies and numerical inversions of the 1888-1890 long-lasting Vulcanian cycle of La Fossa. Results suggest a ~ 10- 2% probability of occurrence of VBP impacts with kinetic energies ≤ 104 J at the touristic locality of Porto. In parallel, the vulnerability to roof perforation was estimated by combining field observations and published literature, allowing for a first estimate of the potential impact of VBPs during future Vulcanian eruptions. Results indicate a high physical vulnerability to the VBP hazard, and, consequently, half of the building stock having a ≥ 2.5 × 10- 3% probability of roof perforation.

First Volcanological-Probabilistic Pyroclastic Density Current and Fallout Hazard Map for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius Volcanoes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L.; Troise, C.; Panizza, A.; de Natale, G.

2005-05-01

Integrated volcanological-probabilistic approaches has been used in order to simulate pyroclastic density currents and fallout and produce hazard maps for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius areas. On the basis of the analyses of all types of pyroclastic flows, surges, secondary pyroclastic density currents and fallout events occurred in the volcanological history of the two volcanic areas and the evaluation of probability for each type of events, matrixs of input parameters for a numerical simulation have been performed. The multi-dimensional input matrixs include the main controlling parameters of the pyroclasts transport and deposition dispersion, as well as the set of possible eruptive vents used in the simulation program. Probabilistic hazard maps provide of each points of campanian area, the yearly probability to be interested by a given event with a given intensity and resulting demage. Probability of a few events in one thousand years are typical of most areas around the volcanoes whitin a range of ca 10 km, including Neaples. Results provide constrains for the emergency plans in Neapolitan area.

J-SHIS - an integrated system for knowing seismic hazard information in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, H.; Fujiwara, H.; Kawai, S.; Hao, K. X.; Morikawa, N.

2015-12-01

An integrated system of Japan seismic hazard information station (J-SHIS) was established in 2005 for issuing and exchanging information of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan that are based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA). A simplified app, also named J-SHIS, for smartphones is popularly used in Japan based on the integrated system of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en. "Smartphone tells hazard" is realized on a cellphone, a tablet and/or a PC. At a given spot, the comprehensive information of SHA map can be easily obtained as below: 1) A SHA probability at given intensity (JMA=5-, 5+, 6-, 6+) within 30 years. 2) A site amplification factor varies within 0.5 ~ 3.0 and expectation is 1 based on surface geology map information. 3) A depth of seismic basement down to ~3,000m based on deeper borehole and geological structure. 4) Scenario earthquake maps: By choosing an active fault, one got the average case for different parameters of the modeling. Then choose a case, you got the shaking map of intensity with color scale. "Seismic Hazard Karte tells more hazard" is another app based on website of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/labs/karte/. (1) For every mesh of 250m x 250m, professional service SHA information is provided over national-world. (2) With five ranks for eight items, comprehensive SHA information could be delivered. (3) Site amplification factor with an average index is given. (4) Deeper geologic structure modeling is provided with borehole profiling. (5) A SHA probability is assessed within 30 and/or 50 years for the given site. (6) Seismic Hazard curves are given for earthquake sources from inland active fault, subduction zone, undetermined and their summarization. (7) The JMA seismic intensities are assessed in long-term averaged periods of 500-years to ~100,000 years. The app of J-SHIS can be downloaded freely from http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/app-jshis.

Co-liquefaction of spent coffee grounds and lignocellulosic feedstocks.

PubMed

Yang, Linxi; He, Quan Sophia; Havard, Peter; Corscadden, Kenneth; Xu, Chunbao Charles; Wang, Xuan

2017-08-01

Co-liquefaction of spent coffee grounds (SCG) with paper filter (PF), corn stalk (CS) and white pine bark (WPB) respectively, was examined in subcritical water for bio-crude oil production. The optimum reaction temperature was 250°C, and the mixing biomass ratio was 1:1. SCG and CS was identified to be the best feedstock combination with a significant positive synergetic effect in the co-liquefaction process with 5% NaOH as a catalyst. The yield of bio-crude oil was increased by 20.9% compared to the mass averaged yield from two feedstocks, and the oil quality was also improved in terms of viscosity and relative molecular mass. A negative effect presented in the co-liquefaction of SCG/WPB. The resulting bio-crude oils were characterized by elemental analyzer, GC-MS, GPC and viscometer, indicating that mixing feedstock in the co-liquefaction process also influenced the higher heating value (HHV), viscosity, molecular mass and chemical composition of bio-crude oil. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Liquefaction of Semen Generates and Later Degrades a Conserved Semenogelin Peptide That Enhances HIV Infection

PubMed Central

Liu, Haichuan; Usmani, Shariq M.; Neidleman, Jason; Müller, Janis A.; Avila-Herrera, Aram; Gawanbacht, Ali; Zirafi, Onofrio; Chu, Simon; Dong, Ming; Kumar, Senthil T.; Smith, James F.; Pollard, Katherine S.; Fändrich, Marcus; Kirchhoff, Frank; Münch, Jan; Witkowska, H. Ewa; Greene, Warner C.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Semen enhances HIV infection in vitro, but how long it retains this activity has not been carefully examined. Immediately postejaculation, semen exists as a semisolid coagulum, which then converts to a more liquid form in a process termed liquefaction. We demonstrate that early during liquefaction, semen exhibits maximal HIV-enhancing activity that gradually declines upon further incubation. The decline in HIV-enhancing activity parallels the degradation of peptide fragments derived from the semenogelins (SEMs), the major components of the coagulum that are cleaved in a site-specific and progressive manner upon initiation of liquefaction. Because amyloid fibrils generated from SEM fragments were recently demonstrated to enhance HIV infection, we set out to determine whether any of the liquefaction-generated SEM fragments associate with the presence of HIV-enhancing activity. We identify SEM1 from amino acids 86 to 107 [SEM1(86-107)] to be a short, cationic, amyloidogenic SEM peptide that is generated early in the process of liquefaction but that, conversely, is lost during prolonged liquefaction due to the activity of serine proteases. Synthetic SEM1(86-107) amyloids directly bind HIV-1 virions and are sufficient to enhance HIV infection of permissive cells. Furthermore, endogenous seminal levels of SEM1(86-107) correlate with donor-dependent variations in viral enhancement activity, and antibodies generated against SEM1(86-107) recognize endogenous amyloids in human semen. The amyloidogenic potential of SEM1(86-107) and its virus-enhancing properties are conserved among great apes, suggesting an evolutionarily conserved function. These studies identify SEM1(86-107) to be a key, HIV-enhancing amyloid species in human semen and underscore the dynamic nature of semen's HIV-enhancing activity. IMPORTANCE Semen, the most common vehicle for HIV transmission, enhances HIV infection in vitro, but how long it retains this activity has not been investigated. Semen naturally undergoes physiological changes over time, whereby it converts from a gel-like consistency to a more liquid form. This process, termed liquefaction, is characterized at the molecular level by site-specific and progressive cleavage of SEMs, the major components of the coagulum, by seminal proteases. We demonstrate that the HIV-enhancing activity of semen gradually decreases over the course of extended liquefaction and identify a naturally occurring semenogelin-derived fragment, SEM1(86-107), whose levels correlate with virus-enhancing activity over the course of liquefaction. SEM1(86-107) amyloids are naturally present in semen, and synthetic SEM1(86-107) fibrils bind virions and are sufficient to enhance HIV infection. Therefore, by characterizing dynamic changes in the HIV-enhancing activity of semen during extended liquefaction, we identified SEM1(86-107) to be a key virus-enhancing component of human semen. PMID:24741080

Hazard-Specific Vulnerability Mapping for Water Security in a Shale Gas Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, D. M.; Holding, S.; McKoen, Z.

2015-12-01

Northeast British Columbia (NEBC) is estimated to hold large reserves of unconventional natural gas and has experienced rapid growth in shale gas development activities over recent decades. Shale gas development has the potential to impact the quality and quantity of surface and ground water. Robust policies and sound water management are required to protect water security in relation to the water-energy nexus surrounding shale gas development. In this study, hazard-specific vulnerability mapping was conducted across NEBC to identify areas most vulnerable to water quality and quantity deterioration due to shale gas development. Vulnerability represents the combination of a specific hazard threat and the susceptibility of the water system to that threat. Hazard threats (i.e. potential contamination sources and water abstraction) were mapped spatially across the region. The shallow aquifer susceptibility to contamination was characterised using the DRASTIC aquifer vulnerability approach, while the aquifer susceptibility to abstraction was mapped according to aquifer productivity. Surface water susceptibility to contamination was characterised on a watershed basis to describe the propensity for overland flow (i.e. contaminant transport), while watershed discharge estimates were used to assess surface water susceptibility to water abstractions. The spatial distribution of hazard threats and susceptibility were combined to form hazard-specific vulnerability maps for groundwater quality, groundwater quantity, surface water quality and surface water quantity. The vulnerability maps identify priority areas for further research, monitoring and policy development. Priority areas regarding water quality occur where hazard threat (contamination potential) coincide with high aquifer susceptibility or high overland flow potential. Priority areas regarding water quantity occur where demand is estimated to represent a significant proportion of estimated supply. The identification of priority areas allows for characterization of the vulnerability of water security in the region. This vulnerability mapping approach, using the hazard threat and susceptibility indicators, can be applied to other shale gas areas to assess vulnerability to shale gas activities and support water security.

The development of flood map in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

2017-11-01

In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to undertake the necessary decisions, and the general public to be aware of the impending danger. However this paper will only discuss on the generations of Flood Hazard Maps and the use of Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map by using geospatial data.

Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdallah, Chadi; Darwich, Talal; Hamze, Mouin; Zaarour, Nathalie

2014-05-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. In fact, floods are responsible for over one third of people affected by natural disasters; almost 190 million people in more than 90 countries are exposed to catastrophic floods every year. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase, therefore, flood prediction and prevention has become a necessity in many places around the globe to decrease damages caused by flooding. Available evidence hints at an increasing frequency of flooding disasters being witnessed in the last 25 years in Lebanon. The consequences of such events are tragic including annual financial losses of around 15 million dollars. In this work, a hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework for flood hazard mapping over Lebanon covering 19 watershed was introduced. Several empirical, statistical and stochastic methods to calculate the flood magnitude and its related return periods, where rainfall and river gauge data are neither continuous nor available on a long term basis with an absence of proper river sections that under estimate flows during flood events. TRMM weather satellite information, automated drainage networks, curve numbers and other geometrical characteristics for each basin was prepared using WMS-software and then exported into HMS files to implement the hydrologic modeling (rainfall-runoff) for single designed storm of uniformly distributed depth along each basin. The obtained flow hydrographs were implemented in the hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) where relative water surface profiles are calculated and flood plains are delineated. The model was calibrated using the last flood event of January 2013, field investigation, and high resolution satellite images. Flow results proved to have an accuracy ranging between 83-87% when compared to the computed statistical and stochastic methods. Results included the generation of recurrence flood plain maps of 10, 50 & 100 years intensity maps along with flood hazard maps for each watershed. It is of utmost significance for this study to be effective that the produced flood intensity and hazard maps will be made available to decision-makers, planners and relevant community stakeholders.

Application of Gumbel I and Monte Carlo methods to assess seismic hazard in and around Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehman, Khaista; Burton, Paul W.; Weatherill, Graeme A.

2018-05-01

A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N-39° N; 59° E-80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is calculated in terms of PGA for a return period of 475 years using a seismogenic-free zone method of Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values and Monte Carlo simulation. Appropriate attenuation relations of universal and local types have been used in this study. The results show that for many parts of Pakistan, the expected seismic hazard is relatively comparable with the level specified in the existing PGA maps.

Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2013-12-01

Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field information, however tsunami hazard map based on numerical model should be this process. Tsunami scientists should not enter into the inhumane business by using tsunami numerical model. It includes accountability to society therefore scientists need scientific ethics and humanitarian attention. Should only tsunami scientist have responsibility for human life? Multidisciplinary approach is essential for mitigation like CEMA. I am taking on hazard map training course for disaster management officers from developing countries in JICA training course. I would like to discuss how to improve tsunami hazard map after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami experience in this presentation. A multidisciplinary exparts team of CEMA's tsunami hazard map

Advanced liquefaction using coal swelling and catalyst dispersion techniques. Volume 2, appendices. Final technical report, October 1, 1991--September 30, 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis, C.W.; Chander, S.; Gutterman, C.

Liquefaction experiments were undertaken using subbituminous Black Thunder mine coal to observe the effects of aqueous SO{sub 2} coal beneficiation and the introduction of various coal swelling solvents and catalyst precursors. Aqueous SO{sub 2} beneficiation of Black Thunder coal removed alkali metals and alkaline earth metals, increased the sulfur content and increased the catalytic liquefaction conversion to THF solubles compared to untreated Black Thunder coal. The liquefaction solvent had varying effects on coal conversion, depending upon the type of solvent added. The hydrogen donor solvent, dihydroanthracene, was most effective, while a coal-derived Wilsonville solvent promoted more coal conversion than didmore » relatively inert 1-methylnaphthalene. Swelling of coal with hydrogen bonding solvents tetrahydrofuran (THF), isopropanol, and methanol, prior to reaction resulted in increased noncatalytic conversion of both untreated and SO{sub 2} treated Black Thunder coals, while dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO), which was absorbed more into the coal than any other swelling solvent, was detrimental to coal conversion. Swelling of SO{sub 2} treated coal before liquefaction resulted in the highest coal conversions; however, the untreated coal showed the most improvements in catalytic reactions when swelled in either THF, isopropanol, or methanol prior to liquefaction. The aprotic solvent DMSO was detrimental to coal conversion.« less

An updated geospatial liquefaction model for global application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Jing; Baise, Laurie G.; Thompson, Eric M.

2017-01-01

We present an updated geospatial approach to estimation of earthquake-induced liquefaction from globally available geospatial proxies. Our previous iteration of the geospatial liquefaction model was based on mapped liquefaction surface effects from four earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Kobe, Japan, paired with geospatial explanatory variables including slope-derived VS30, compound topographic index, and magnitude-adjusted peak ground acceleration from ShakeMap. The updated geospatial liquefaction model presented herein improves the performance and the generality of the model. The updates include (1) expanding the liquefaction database to 27 earthquake events across 6 countries, (2) addressing the sampling of nonliquefaction for incomplete liquefaction inventories, (3) testing interaction effects between explanatory variables, and (4) overall improving model performance. While we test 14 geospatial proxies for soil density and soil saturation, the most promising geospatial parameters are slope-derived VS30, modeled water table depth, distance to coast, distance to river, distance to closest water body, and precipitation. We found that peak ground velocity (PGV) performs better than peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the shaking intensity parameter. We present two models which offer improved performance over prior models. We evaluate model performance using the area under the curve under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and the Brier score. The best-performing model in a coastal setting uses distance to coast but is problematic for regions away from the coast. The second best model, using PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to closest water body, and precipitation, performs better in noncoastal regions and thus is the model we recommend for global implementation.

Crucial role of estrogen for the mammalian female in regulating semen coagulation and liquefaction in vivo

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Semen liquefaction changes semen from a gel-like to watery consistency and is required for sperm to gain mobility and swim to the fertilization site in the Fallopian tubes. Kallikrein-related peptidases 3 (KLK3) and other kallikrein-related peptidases from male prostate glands are responsible for semen liquefaction by cleaving gel-forming proteins (semenogelin and collagen). In a physiological context, the liquefaction process occurs within the female reproductive tract. How seminal proteins interact with the female reproductive environment is still largely unexplored. We previously reported that conditional genetic ablation of Esr1 (estrogen receptor α) in the epithelial cells of the female reproductive tract (Wnt7aCre/+;Esr1f/f) causes female infertility, partly due to a drastic reduction in the number of motile sperm entering the oviduct. In this study, we found that post-ejaculated semen from fertile wild-type males was solidified and the sperm were entrapped in Wnt7aCre/+;Esr1f/f uteri, compared to the watery semen (liquefied) found in Esr1f/f controls. In addition, semenogelin and collagen were not degraded in Wnt7aCre/+;Esr1f/f uteri. Amongst multiple gene families aberrantly expressed in the absence of epithelial ESR1, we have identified that a lack of Klks in the uterus is a potential cause for the liquefaction defect. Pharmacological inhibition of KLKs in the uterus replicated the phenotype observed in Wnt7aCre/+;Esr1f/f uteri, suggesting that loss of uterine and seminal KLK function causes this liquefaction defect. In human cervical cell culture, expression of several KLKs and their inhibitors (SPINKs) was regulated by estrogen in an ESR1-dependent manner. Our study demonstrates that estrogen/ESR1 signaling in the female reproductive tract plays an indispensable role in normal semen liquefaction, providing fundamental evidence that exposure of post-ejaculated semen to the suboptimal microenvironment in the female reproductive tract leads to faulty liquefaction and subsequently causes a fertility defect. PMID:28414719

Improving Flood Risk Maps as a Capacity Building Activity: Fostering Public Participation and Raising Flood Risk Awareness in the German Mulde Region (project RISK MAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luther, J.; Meyer, V.; Kuhlicke, C.; Scheuer, S.; Unnerstall, H.

2012-04-01

The EU Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood risk maps for high risk areas in all EU Member States by 2013. However, if existing at all, the current practice of risk mapping still shows some deficits: Risk maps are often seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that e.g. important local knowledge is not incorporated and forms a contrast to the understanding of capacity building which calls for engaging individuals in the process of learning and adapting to change and for the establishment of a more interactive public administration that learns equally from its actions and from the feedback it receives. Furthermore, the contents of risk maps often do not match the requirements of the end users, so that risk maps are often designed and visualised in a way which cannot be easily understood by laypersons and/or which is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and flood event management. The project RISK MAP aimed at improving flood risk maps as a means to foster public participation and raising flood risk awareness. For achieving this aim, RISK MAP (1) developed rules for appropriate stakeholder participation enabling the incorporation of local knowledge and preferences; (2) improved the content of risk maps by considering different risk criteria through the use of a deliberative multicriteria risk mapping tool; and (3) improved the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly risk maps by applying the experimental graphic semiology (EGS) method that uses the eye tracking approach. The research was carried out in five European case studies where the status quo of risk mapping and the legal framework was analysed, several stakeholder interviews and workshops were conducted, the visual perception of risk maps was tested and - based on this empirical work - exemplary improved risk maps were produced. The presentation and paper will outline the main findings of the project which ended in September 2011, focussing on the participatory aspects in one of the German case studies (the Mulde River in Saxony). In short, different map users such as strategic planners, emergency managers or the (affected) public require different maps, with varying information density and complexity. The purpose of participation may therefore have a substantive rationale (i.e. improving the content, including local knowledge) or a more instrumental rationale (i.e. building trust, raising awareness, increasing legitimacy). The degree to which both rationales are accommodated depends on the project objectives and determines the participants and process type. In the Mulde case study, both the process of collaborating with each other and considering the (local) knowledge and different experiences as well as the results were highly appreciated. Hazard and risk maps are thus not an end-product that could be complemented e.g. by emergency management information on existing or planned defences, evacuation routes, assembly points, but they should be embedded into a participatory maintenance/updating framework. Map visualisation could be enhanced by using more common and/or self-explanatory symbols, text and a limited number of colour grades for hazard and risk information. Keywords: Flood mapping, hazard and risk maps, participation, risk communication, flood risk awareness, emergency management

Sinking during earthquakes: Critical acceleration criteria control drained soil liquefaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, C.; Toussaint, R.; Stojanova, M.; Aharonov, E.

2018-02-01

This article focuses on liquefaction of saturated granular soils, triggered by earthquakes. Liquefaction is defined here as the transition from a rigid state, in which the granular soil layer supports structures placed on its surface, to a fluidlike state, in which structures placed initially on the surface sink to their isostatic depth within the granular layer. We suggest a simple theoretical model for soil liquefaction and show that buoyancy caused by the presence of water inside a granular medium has a dramatic influence on the stability of an intruder resting at the surface of the medium. We confirm this hypothesis by comparison with laboratory experiments and discrete-element numerical simulations. The external excitation representing ground motion during earthquakes is simulated via horizontal sinusoidal oscillations of controlled frequency and amplitude. In the experiments, we use particles only slightly denser than water, which as predicted theoretically increases the effect of liquefaction and allows clear depth-of-sinking measurements. In the simulations, a micromechanical model simulates grains using molecular dynamics with friction between neighbors. The effect of the fluid is captured by taking into account buoyancy effects on the grains when they are immersed. We show that the motion of an intruder inside a granular medium is mainly dependent on the peak acceleration of the ground motion and establish a phase diagram for the conditions under which liquefaction happens, depending on the soil bulk density, friction properties, presence of water, and peak acceleration of the imposed large-scale soil vibrations. We establish that in liquefaction conditions, most cases relax toward an equilibrium position following an exponential in time. We also show that the equilibrium position itself, for most liquefaction regimes, corresponds to the isostatic equilibrium of the intruder inside a medium of effective density. The characteristic time to relaxation is shown to be essentially a function of the peak ground velocity.

Alkaline hydrothermal liquefaction of swine carcasses to bio-oil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Ji-Lu, E-mail: triace@163.com; Zhu, Ming-Qiang; Wu, Hai-tang

Highlights: • Swine carcasses can be converted to bio-oil by alkaline hydrothermal liquefaction. • It seems that the use of the bio-oil for heat or CHP is technically suitable. • Some valuable chemicals were found in the bio-oils. • The bio-oil and the solid residue constituted an energy efficiency of 93.63% for the feedstock. • The solid residue can be used as a soil amendment, to sequester C and for preparing activated carbon. - Abstract: It is imperative that swine carcasses are disposed of safely, practically and economically. Alkaline hydrothermal liquefaction of swine carcasses to bio-oil was performed. Firstly, themore » effects of temperature, reaction time and pH value on the yield of each liquefaction product were determined. Secondly, liquefaction products, including bio-oil and solid residue, were characterized. Finally, the energy recovery ratio (ERR), which was defined as the energy of the resultant products compared to the energy input of the material, was investigated. Our experiment shows that reaction time had certain influence on the yield of liquefaction products, but temperature and pH value had bigger influence on the yield of liquefaction products. Yields of 62.2 wt% bio-oil, having a high heating value of 32.35 MJ/kg and a viscosity of 305cp, and 22 wt% solid residue were realized at a liquefaction temperature of 250 °C, a reaction time of 60 min and a pH value of 9.0. The bio-oil contained up to hundreds of different chemical components that may be classified according to functional groups. Typical compound classes in the bio-oil were hydrocarbons, organic acids, esters, ketones and heterocyclics. The energy recovery ratio (ERR) reached 93.63%. The bio-oil is expected to contribute to fossil fuel replacement in stationary applications, including boilers and furnaces, and upgrading processes for the bio-oil may be used to obtain liquid transport fuels.« less

Sinking during earthquakes: Critical acceleration criteria control drained soil liquefaction.

PubMed

Clément, C; Toussaint, R; Stojanova, M; Aharonov, E

2018-02-01

This article focuses on liquefaction of saturated granular soils, triggered by earthquakes. Liquefaction is defined here as the transition from a rigid state, in which the granular soil layer supports structures placed on its surface, to a fluidlike state, in which structures placed initially on the surface sink to their isostatic depth within the granular layer. We suggest a simple theoretical model for soil liquefaction and show that buoyancy caused by the presence of water inside a granular medium has a dramatic influence on the stability of an intruder resting at the surface of the medium. We confirm this hypothesis by comparison with laboratory experiments and discrete-element numerical simulations. The external excitation representing ground motion during earthquakes is simulated via horizontal sinusoidal oscillations of controlled frequency and amplitude. In the experiments, we use particles only slightly denser than water, which as predicted theoretically increases the effect of liquefaction and allows clear depth-of-sinking measurements. In the simulations, a micromechanical model simulates grains using molecular dynamics with friction between neighbors. The effect of the fluid is captured by taking into account buoyancy effects on the grains when they are immersed. We show that the motion of an intruder inside a granular medium is mainly dependent on the peak acceleration of the ground motion and establish a phase diagram for the conditions under which liquefaction happens, depending on the soil bulk density, friction properties, presence of water, and peak acceleration of the imposed large-scale soil vibrations. We establish that in liquefaction conditions, most cases relax toward an equilibrium position following an exponential in time. We also show that the equilibrium position itself, for most liquefaction regimes, corresponds to the isostatic equilibrium of the intruder inside a medium of effective density. The characteristic time to relaxation is shown to be essentially a function of the peak ground velocity.

Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, L.; Mukolwe, M. M.; Di Baldassarre, G.

2016-02-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.

A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2016-04-01

To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 1,398 subnational areas of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. An analysis of country-level population exposure showed that approximately 750 million people are affected from combined climate-hazards. Of the affected population 72% are in India, followed by 12% each from Bangladesh and Pakistan. Due in part to the economic importance of agriculture, it was found to be most vulnerable and exposed to climate extremes. An analysis of individual hazards indicates that floods and droughts) are the dominant hazards impacting agricultural areas followed by extreme rainfall, extreme temperature and sea-level rise. Based on this vulnerability assessment, all the regions of Bangladesh and the Indian States in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Orissa; Ampara, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar and Batticaloa in Sri Lanka; Sind and Baluchistan in Pakistan; Central and East Nepal; and the transboundary river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra are among the most vulnerable regions in South Asia.

Coal liquefaction and hydrogenation

DOEpatents

Schindler, Harvey D.; Chen, James M.

1985-01-01

Disclosed is a coal liquefaction process using two stages. The first stage liquefies the coal and maximizes the product while the second stage hydrocracks the remainder of the coal liquid to produce solvent.

46 CFR 148.450 - Cargoes subject to liquefaction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... migration and subsequent liquefaction if shipped with moisture content in excess of the transportable moisture limit. (2) Moisture migration is the movement of moisture by settling and consolidation of a...

The Role of Earth Science in Oregon’s Tsunami Preparedness (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priest, G. R.

2009-12-01

Earth science played a critical role in understanding the scope of Oregon’s tsunami hazard. When in the early 1990’s earth scientists communicated to stakeholders the seriousness of the threat posed by local Cascadia subduction zone tsunamis, tsunami preparedness began to rise in priority at all levels of government. Hard field evidence in the form of prehistoric tsunami deposits was a critical component in making the hazard “real” to local governments. State-produced tsunami inundation maps derived from numerical simulations gave decision makers and educators reliable tools to illustrate the spatial scope of the hazard. These maps allowed local cities to plan for evacuation and empowered the State of Oregon to begin “hard” mitigation by limiting new construction of critical facilities seaward of a regulatory inundation line. “Entering” and “Leaving” tsunami hazard zone signs were placed along the Oregon Coast Highway where it dips below this inundation line as means of raising awareness of both the local and transient populations. When detailed inundation studies and derivative evacuation maps were produced for individual communities, State scientists sought advice from local officials at every stage, giving them ownership of the final products. This sense of ownership gave decision makers much greater confidence in the maps and turned many skeptics into passionate advocates. This network of advocates has, over time, resulted in local jurisdictions taking substantive preparedness actions such as replacing critical evacuation bridges, starting networks of emergency response volunteers, and moving critical structures like schools and fire stations. One place that earth science has some difficulty is in communicating probability and uncertainty. For example, the State of Oregon is currently producing new maps that depict uncertainty of tsunami flooding from a future Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. These maps show a range of inundation lines that reflect the relative confidence level (percentage) that a local Cascadia tsunami will NOT exceed each line. In the first of these studies at Cannon Beach, Oregon (Priest et al., 2009) the 90th percentile flood level was only about half to two-thirds as high as the 99th percentile. On the northern Oregon coast Cascadia recurrence is ~500 years, so a percentile map depicts spatial uncertainty of inundation for that event. A Cascadia tsunami approximating the 99th percentile confidence level is no doubt a rare event, but how rare we really do not know. We suspect from offshore turbidite data that only one of these extreme events may have occurred in the last 10,000 years. When the map and underlying data were presented to local officials, they had some difficulty in understanding how to use the information. Erring on the side of caution, they chose the 99th percentile line for evacuation planning but this decision greatly limited available evacuation sites. Cost may make a similarly conservative decision inappropriate for use in building codes or for design of vertical evacuation structures. REFERENCE Priest, G.R.; Goldfinger C.; Wang, K.; Witter, R.C.; Zhang; Y., Baptista, A.M. (2009) Tsunami hazard assessment of the Northern Oregon coast: a multi-deterministic approach tested at Cannon Beach, Clatsop County, Oregon. Oregon Dept. Geol. Mineral Industries Special Paper 41.

CPT site characterization for seismic hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, T.; Mayne, P.W.; Tuttle, M.P.; Schweig, E.S.; Van Arsdale, R.B.

2002-01-01

A series of cone penetration tests (CPTs) were conducted in the vicinity of the New Madrid seismic zone in central USA for quantifying seismic hazards, obtaining geotechnical soil properties, and conducting studies at liquefaction sites related to the 1811-1812 and prehistoric New Madrid earthquakes. The seismic piezocone provides four independent measurements for delineating the stratigraphy, liquefaction potential, and site amplification parameters. At the same location, two independent assessments of soil liquefaction susceptibility can be made using both the normalized tip resistance (qc1N) and shear wave velocity (Vs1). In lieu of traditional deterministic approaches, the CPT data can be processed using probability curves to assess the level and likelihood of future liquefaction occurrence. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicted liquefaction in the greater Oakland area and northern Santa Clara Valley during a repeat of the 1868 Hayward Fault (M6.7-7.0) earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

2010-01-01

Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by young Holocene levee deposits along major drainages where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906.

Site response in the eastern United States: A comparison of Vs30 measurements with estimates from horizontal:vertical spectral ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNamara, Daniel E.; Stephenson, William J.; Odum, Jackson K.; Williams, Robert; Gee, Lind

2014-01-01

Earthquake damage is often increased due to local ground-motion amplification caused by soft soils, thick basin sediments, topographic effects, and liquefaction. A critical factor contributing to the assessment of seismic hazard is detailed information on local site response. In order to address and quantify the site response at seismograph stations in the eastern United States, we investigate the regional spatial variation of horizontal:vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) using ambient noise recorded at permanent regional and national network stations as well as temporary seismic stations deployed in order to record aftershocks of the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake. We compare the HVSR peak frequency to surface measurements of the shear-wave seismic velocity to 30 m depth (Vs30) at 21 seismograph stations in the eastern United States and find that HVSR peak frequency increases with increasing Vs30. We use this relationship to estimate the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program soil class at 218 ANSS (Advanced National Seismic System), GSN (Global Seismographic Network), and RSN (Regional Seismograph Networks) locations in the eastern United States, and suggest that this seismic station–based HVSR proxy could potentially be used to calibrate other site response characterization methods commonly used to estimate shaking hazard.

Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.

2015-12-01

At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

Multipurpose bedrock surficial, and environmental geologic maps, New River valley, southwest Virginia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schultz, A.; Collins, T.

1994-03-01

Multipurpose bedrock, surficial, and environmental geologic maps have recently been completed for portions of the Valley and Ridge province of southwest VA. The maps, at both 1:100,000 and 1:24,000 scales, show generalized and detailed bedrock geology grouped by lithology and environmental hazard associations. Also shown are a variety of alluvial, colluvial, debris flow, and landslide deposits, as well as karst features. Multidisciplinary research topics addressed during the mapping included slope evolution and geomorphology, drainage history and terrace distribution, ancient large-scale landsliding, and sinkhole development. The maps have been used by land-use planners and engineering firms in an evaluation of Appalachianmore » paleoseismicity and to assess potential groundwater contamination and subsidence in karst areas. The maps are being used for environmental hazard assessment and site selection of a proposed large electric powerline that crosses the Jefferson National Forest. Also, the maps are proving useful in planning for a public access interpretive geologic enter focused on large-scale slope failures. Some of the largest known landslides in eastern North America took place within the map area. Field comparisons and detailed structure mapping of similar features along the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies indicate that the landslides were probably emplaced during a single catastrophic event of short duration. Although the giles County seismic zone is nearby, stability analyses of slopes in the map area have shown that failure need not have been initiated by a seismic event. Several distinct colluvial units mapped within the area of landslides document a period of extensive weathering that postdates slide emplacement. Radiocarbon dates from landslide sag ponds indicate a minimum age of 9,860 B.P. for emplacement of some of the landslides. These results indicate that pre-slide colluvial and debris flow deposits are at least Pleistocene in age.« less

Coal liquefaction process wherein jet fuel, diesel fuel and/or ASTM No. 2 fuel oil is recovered

DOEpatents

Bauman, Richard F.; Ryan, Daniel F.

1982-01-01

An improved process for the liquefaction of coal and similar solid carbonaceous materials wherein a hydrogen donor solvent or diluent derived from the solid carbonaceous material is used to form a slurry of the solid carbonaceous material and wherein the naphthenic components from the solvent or diluent fraction are separated and used as jet fuel components. The extraction increases the relative concentration of hydroaromatic (hydrogen donor) components and as a result reduces the gas yield during liquefaction and decreases hydrogen consumption during said liquefaction. The hydrogenation severity can be controlled to increase the yield of naphthenic components and hence the yield of jet fuel and in a preferred embodiment jet fuel yield is maximized while at the same time maintaining solvent balance.

Integrated multi-parameters Probabilistic Seismic Landslide Hazard Analysis (PSLHA): the case study of Ischia island, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caccavale, Mauro; Matano, Fabio; Sacchi, Marco; Mazzola, Salvatore; Somma, Renato; Troise, Claudia; De Natale, Giuseppe

2014-05-01

The Ischia island is a large, complex, partly submerged, active volcanic field located about 20 km east to the Campi Flegrei, a major active volcano-tectonic area near Naples. The island is morphologically characterized in its central part by the resurgent block of Mt. Epomeo, controlled by NW-SE and NE-SW trending fault systems, by mountain stream basin with high relief energy and by a heterogeneous coastline with alternation of beach and tuff/lava cliffs in a continuous reshape due to the weather and sea erosion. The volcano-tectonic process is a main factor for slope stability, as it produces seismic activity and generated steep slopes in volcanic deposits (lava, tuff, pumice and ash layers) characterized by variable strength. In the Campi Flegrei and surrounding areas the possible occurrence of a moderate/large seismic event represents a serious threat for the inhabitants, for the infrastructures as well as for the environment. The most relevant seismic sources for Ischia are represented by the Campi Flegrei caldera and a 5 km long fault located below the island north coast. However those sources are difficult to constrain. The first one due to the on-shore and off-shore extension not yet completely defined. The second characterized only by few large historical events is difficult to parameterize in the framework of probabilistic hazard approach. The high population density, the presence of many infrastructures and the more relevant archaeological sites associated with the natural and artistic values, makes this area a strategic natural laboratory to develop new methodologies. Moreover Ischia represents the only sector, in the Campi Flegrei area, with documented historical landslides originated by earthquake, allowing for the possibility of testing the adequacy and stability of the method. In the framework of the Italian project MON.I.C.A (infrastructural coastlines monitoring) an innovative and dedicated probabilistic methodology has been applied to identify the areas with higher susceptibility of landslide occurrence due to the seismic effect. The (PSLHA) combines the probability of exceedance maps for different GM parameters with the geological and geomorphological information, in terms of critical acceleration and dynamic stability factor. Generally the maps are evaluated for Peak Ground Acceleration, Velocity or Intensity, are well related with anthropic infrastructures (e.g. streets, building, etc.). Each ground motion parameter represents a different aspect in the hazard and has a different correlation with the generation of possible damages. Many works pointed out that other GM like Arias and Housner intensity and the absolute displacement could represent a better choice to analyse for example the cliffs stability. The selection of the GM parameter is of crucial importance to obtain the most useful hazard maps. However in the last decades different Ground Motion Prediction Equations for a new set of GM parameters have been published. Based on this information a series of landslide hazard maps can be produced. The new maps will lead to the identification of areas with highest probability of landslide induced by an earthquake. In a strategic site like Ischia this new methodologies will represent an innovative and advanced tool for the landslide hazard mitigation.

Liquefaction chemistry and kinetics: Hydrogen utilization studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rothenberger, K.S.; Warzinski, R.P.; Cugini, A.V.

1995-12-31

The objectives of this project are to investigate the chemistry and kinetics that occur in the initial stages of coal liquefaction and to determine the effects of hydrogen pressure, catalyst activity, and solvent type on the quantity and quality of the products produced. The project comprises three tasks: (1) preconversion chemistry and kinetics, (2) hydrogen utilization studies, and (3) assessment of kinetic models for liquefaction. The hydrogen utilization studies work will be the main topic of this report. However, the other tasks are briefly described.

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis System Digital Elevation Model: Report 1: Intermediate Submission No. 1.1

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

Center 1261 Duck Rd. Kitty Hawk, NC 27949 Lisa Stillwell, Margaret Blanchard-Montgomery, Brian Blanton Renaissance Computing Institute 100 Europa...Insurance Studies in the study area, and serve as the basis for new coastal hazard analysis and ultimately updated Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs). Study... hazard zones in coastal areas of the United States. Under Task Order HSFE03-06-X-0023, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and project partners are

[Comment on “Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes?”] from S.E. Hough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hough, Susan E.

The recent article by Seth Stein, Joseph Tomasello, and Andrew Newman raised thought-provoking questions about one of the most vexing open issues in hazard assessment in the United States: the hazard posed by ostensibly infrequent, large, mid-continental earthquakes. Many of the technical issues raised by this article are addressed by A. D. Frankel in the accompanying comment. I concur with this, and will only address and/or elaborate on a few additional issues here: (1) Detailed paleoseismic investigations have shown that the New Madrid region experienced sequences of large earthquakes around 900 and 1450 A.D.in addition to the historic events in 1811-1812. With a repeat time on the order of 400-500 years, these cannot be considered infrequent events. Paleoseismic investigations also reveal evidence that the prehistoric “events” were also sequences of two to three large earthquakes with a similar overall distribution of liquefaction in the greater New Madrid region as produced by the 1811-1812 sequence [Tuttle et al., 2002]. And if, as evidence suggests, the zone produces characteristic earthquakes, one will not see a commensurate rate of moderate events, as would be the case if seismicity followed the Gutenburg-Richter distribution.

Liquefaction Resistance Based on Shear Wave Velocity

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-01

This report reviews the current simplified procedures for evaluating the liquefaction resistance of granular soil deposits using small-strain shear wave velocity. These procedures were developed from analytical studies, laboratory studies, or very li...

Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

2011-12-01

Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events (rockfall) and pyroclastic flows, b) Hazard map of lahars and debris flow, and c) Hazard map of ash-fall. The cartographic and database information obtained will be the basis for updating the Operational Plan of the Colima Volcano by the State Civil & Fire Protection Unit of Jalisco, Mexico, and the urban development plans of surrounding municipalities, in order to reduce their vulnerability to the hazards of the volcanic activity.

New catalysts for coal liquefaction and new nanocrystalline catalysts synthesis methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linehan, J.C.; Matson, D.W.; Darab, J.G.

1994-09-01

The use of coal as a source of transportation fuel is currently economically unfavorable due to an abundant world petroleum supply and the relatively high cost of coal liquefaction. Consequently, a reduction in the cost of coal liquefaction, for example by using less and/or less costly catalysts or lower liquefaction temperatures, must be accomplished if coal is to play an significant role as a source of liquid feedstock for the petrochemical industry. The authors and others have investigated the applicability of using inexpensive iron-based catalysts in place of more costly and environmentally hazardous metal catalysts for direct coal liquefaction. Iron-basedmore » catalysts can be effective in liquefying coal and in promoting carbon-carbon bond cleavage in model compounds. The authors have been involved in an ongoing effort to develop and optimize iron-based powders for use in coal liquefaction and related petrochemical applications. Research efforts in this area have been directed at three general areas. The authors have explored ways to optimize the effectiveness of catalyst precursor species through use of nanocrystalline materials and/or finely divided powders. In this effort, the authors have developed two new nanophase material production techniques, Modified Reverse Micelle (MRM) and the Rapid Thermal Decomposition of precursors in Solution (RTDS). A second effort has been aimed at optimizing the effectiveness of catalysts by variations in other factors. To this, the authors have investigated the effect that the crystalline phase has on the capacity of iron-based oxide and oxyhydroxide powders to be effectively converted to an active catalyst phase under liquefaction conditions. And finally, the authors have developed methods to produce active catalyst precursor powders in quantities sufficient for pilot-scale testing. Major results in these three areas are summarized.« less

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

2018-05-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10 N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10 L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.

Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

Validating national landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for Caribbean island countries: the case of Dominica and tropical storm Erika.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor; Alkema, Dinand

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to generate national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for four Caribbean islands, as part of the World Bank project CHARIM (Caribbean Handbook on Disaster Geoinformation Management, www.charim.net). This paper focuses on the results for the island country of Dominica, located in the Eastern part of the Caribbean, in-between Guadalupe and Martinique. The available data turned out to be insufficient to generate reliable results. We therefore generated a new database of disaster events for Dominica using all available data, making use of many different sources. We compiled landslide inventories for five recent rainfall events from the maintenance records of the Ministry of Public Works, and generated a completely new landslide inventory using multi-temporal visual image interpretation, and generated an extensive landslide database for Dominica. We analyzed the triggering conditions for landslides as far as was possible given the available data, and generated rainfall magnitude-frequency relations. We applied a method for landslide susceptibility assessment which combined bi-variate statistical analysis, that provided indications on the importance of the possible contributing factors, with an expert-based iterative weighing approach using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The method is transparent, as the stakeholders (e.g. the engineers and planners from the four countries) and other consultants can consult the criteria trees and evaluate the standardization and weights, and make adjustments. The landslide susceptibility map was converted into a landslide hazard map using landslide density and frequencies for so called major, moderate and minor triggering events. The landslide hazard map was produced in May 2015. A major rainfall event occurred on Dominica following the passage of tropical storm Erika on 26 to 28 August 2015. An event-based landslide inventory for this event was produced by UNOSAT using very high resolution optical images, and an additional field-based inventory was obtained from BRGM. These were used to analyze the predictive capabilities of the national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps. Although the spatial patterns of the landslide susceptibility map was fairly accurate in predicting the locations of the landslides triggered by the recent tropical storm, the landslide densities and related frequencies used for the hazard assessment turned out to deviate considerably taking into account the spatial landslide pattern and estimated frequency of rainfall for tropical storm Erika. This study demonstrates the importance of reconstructing landslide inventories for a variety of triggering events, and the requirement of including landslide inventory data of a major event in the hazard assessment.

Support vector machines-based modelling of seismic liquefaction potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Mahesh

2006-08-01

This paper investigates the potential of support vector machines (SVM)-based classification approach to assess the liquefaction potential from actual standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) field data. SVMs are based on statistical learning theory and found to work well in comparison to neural networks in several other applications. Both CPT and SPT field data sets is used with SVMs for predicting the occurrence and non-occurrence of liquefaction based on different input parameter combination. With SPT and CPT test data sets, highest accuracy of 96 and 97%, respectively, was achieved with SVMs. This suggests that SVMs can effectively be used to model the complex relationship between different soil parameter and the liquefaction potential. Several other combinations of input variable were used to assess the influence of different input parameters on liquefaction potential. Proposed approach suggest that neither normalized cone resistance value with CPT data nor the calculation of standardized SPT value is required with SPT data. Further, SVMs required few user-defined parameters and provide better performance in comparison to neural network approach.

New techniques on oil spill modelling applied in the Eastern Mediterranean sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Kokinou, Eleni; Alves, Tiago; Lardner, Robin

2016-04-01

Small or large oil spills resulting from accidents on oil and gas platforms or due to the maritime traffic comprise a major environmental threat for all marine and coastal systems, and they are responsible for huge economic losses concerning the human infrastructures and the tourism. This work aims at presenting the integration of oil-spill model, bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, geomorphological and geological data to assess the impact of oil spills in maritime regions such as bays, as well as in the open sea, carried out in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea within the frame of NEREIDs, MEDESS-4MS and RAOP-Med EU projects. The MEDSLIK oil spill predictions are successfully combined with bathymetric analyses, the shoreline susceptibility and hazard mapping to predict the oil slick trajectories and the extend of the coastal areas affected. Based on MEDSLIK results, oil spill spreading and dispersion scenarios are produced both for non-mitigated and mitigated oil spills. MEDSLIK model considers three response combating methods of floating oil spills: a) mechanical recovery using skimmers or similar mechanisms; b) destruction by fire, c) use of dispersants or other bio-chemical means and deployment of booms. Shoreline susceptibility map can be compiled for the study areas based on the Environmental Susceptibility Index. The ESI classification considers a range of values between 1 and 9, with level 1 (ESI 1) representing areas of low susceptibility, impermeable to oil spilt during accidents, such as linear shorelines with rocky cliffs. In contrast, ESI 9 shores are highly vulnerable, and often coincide with natural reserves and special protected areas. Additionally, hazard maps of the maritime and coastal areas, possibly exposed to the danger on an oil spill, evaluate and categorize the hazard in levels from low to very high. This is important because a) Prior to an oil spill accident, hazard and shoreline susceptibility maps are made available to design preparedness and prevention plans in an effective way, b) After an oil spill accident, oil spill predictions can be combined with hazard maps to provide information on the oil spill dispersion and their impacts. This way, prevention plans can be directly modified at any time after the accident.

Simplified dynamic analysis to evaluate liquefaction-induced lateral deformation of earth slopes: a computational fluid dynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarian, Yaser; Ghorbani, Ali; Ahmadi, Omid

2014-09-01

Lateral deformation of liquefiable soil is a cause of much damage during earthquakes, reportedly more than other forms of liquefaction-induced ground failures. Researchers have presented studies in which the liquefied soil is considered as viscous fluid. In this manner, the liquefied soil behaves as non-Newtonian fluid, whose viscosity decreases as the shear strain rate increases. The current study incorporates computational fluid dynamics to propose a simplified dynamic analysis for the liquefaction-induced lateral deformation of earth slopes. The numerical procedure involves a quasi-linear elastic model for small to moderate strains and a Bingham fluid model for large strain states during liquefaction. An iterative procedure is considered to estimate the strain-compatible shear stiffness of soil. The post-liquefaction residual strength of soil is considered as the initial Bingham viscosity. Performance of the numerical procedure is examined by using the results of centrifuge model and shaking table tests together with some field observations of lateral ground deformation. The results demonstrate that the proposed procedure predicts the time history of lateral ground deformation with a reasonable degree of precision.

Liquefaction of ground tire rubber at low temperature.

PubMed

Cheng, Xiangyun; Song, Pan; Zhao, Xinyu; Peng, Zonglin; Wang, Shifeng

2018-01-01

Low-temperature liquefaction has been investigated as a novel method for recycling ground tire rubber (GTR) into liquid using an environmentally benign process. The liquefaction was carried out at different temperatures (140, 160 and 180 °C) over variable time ranges (2-24 h) by blending the GTR with aromatic oil in a range from 0 to 100 parts per hundred rubber (phr). The liquefied GTR was separated into sol (the soluble fraction of rubber which can be extracted with toluene) and gel fractions (the solid fraction obtained after extraction) to evaluate the reclaiming efficiency. It was discovered that the percentage of the sol fraction increased with time, swelling ratio and temperature. Liquefied rubber was obtained with a high sol fraction (68.34 wt%) at 140 °C. Simultaneously, separation of nano-sized carbon black from the rubber networks occurred. The separation of carbon black from the network is the result of significant damage to the cross-linked-network that occurs throughout the liquefaction process. During liquefaction, a competitive reaction between main chain scission and cross-link bond breakage takes place. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparation of Biopolyol by Solvolysis Liquefaction of Oil Palm Mesocarp Fibre using Polyhydric Alchohol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kormin, Shaharuddin; Rus, Anika Zafiah M.; Azahari, M. Shafiq M.

2017-08-01

Liquefied oil palm mesocarp fibre (LOPMF) is a promising natural material that can be used as biopolyol of polyurethane foam. The aim of this study was to utilizing solvolysis liquefaction conversion technology of oil palm mesocarp fibre (OPMF) for polyurethane (PU) foam. LOPMF was obtained with liquefaction of fibre in polyhydric alchohol (PA) such as ethylene glycol (EG), polyethylene glycol (PEG) and glycerol (GLY) as liquefaction solvent and sulphuric acid (H2SO4) in three different OPMF/PA ratio (1/2, 1/3 and 1/4) in conventional glass reactor. During the liquefaction, cellulose, semi-cellulose and lignin are decomposed, which results in changes of acid value and hydroxyl value. Liquefied OPMF and residues were characterized by Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. The results revealed that almost 50% of the OPMF converted into biopolyol product within 2 hours with OPMF/PA ratio of 1/4. Biopolyol produced under different condition showed viscosities from 210 to 450 Pa.s. The hydroxyl and acid values of the liquefied OPMF varied with the liquefied conditions. It was observed that with an increase in the liquefaction solvent (PA) amount in the mixture resulted in a high acid value and hydroxyl value for the OPMF. High reaction temperature combining with low OPMF material to solvent ratio resulted low hydroxyl number of LOPMF. The result in this study showed that biopolyol was suitable monomer for polyurethane synthesis.

Coal liquefaction process streams characterization and evaluation: Analysis of Black Thunder coal and liquefaction products from HRI Bench Unit Run CC-15

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pugmire, R.J.; Solum, M.S.

This study was designed to apply {sup 13}C-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrometry to the analysis of direct coal liquefaction process-stream materials. {sup 13}C-NMR was shown to have a high potential for application to direct coal liquefaction-derived samples in Phase II of this program. In this Phase III project, {sup 13}C-NMR was applied to a set of samples derived from the HRI Inc. bench-scale liquefaction Run CC-15. The samples include the feed coal, net products and intermediate streams from three operating periods of the run. High-resolution {sup 13}C-NMR data were obtained for the liquid samples and solid-state CP/MAS {sup 13}C-NMR datamore » were obtained for the coal and filter-cake samples. The {sup 1}C-NMR technique is used to derive a set of twelve carbon structural parameters for each sample (CONSOL Table A). Average molecular structural descriptors can then be derived from these parameters (CONSOL Table B).« less

Proposed method for hazard mapping of landslide propagation zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serbulea, Manole-Stelian; Gogu, Radu; Manoli, Daniel-Marcel; Gaitanaru, Dragos Stefan; Priceputu, Adrian; Andronic, Adrian; Anghel, Alexandra; Liviu Bugea, Adrian; Ungureanu, Constantin; Niculescu, Alexandru

2013-04-01

Sustainable development of communities situated in areas with landslide potential requires a fully understanding of the mechanisms that govern the triggering of the phenomenon as well as the propagation of the sliding mass, with catastrophic consequences on the nearby inhabitants and environment. Modern analysis methods for areas affected by the movement of the soil bodies are presented in this work, as well as a new procedure to assess the landslide hazard. Classical soil mechanics offer sufficient numeric models to assess the landslide triggering zone, such as Limit Equilibrium Methods (Fellenius, Janbu, Morgenstern-Price, Bishop, Spencer etc.), blocks model or progressive mobilization models, Lagrange-based finite element method etc. The computation methods for assessing the propagation zones are quite recent and have high computational requirements, thus not being sufficiently used in practice to confirm their feasibility. The proposed procedure aims to assess not only the landslide hazard factor, but also the affected areas, by means of simple mathematical operations. The method can easily be employed in GIS software, without requiring engineering training. The result is obtained by computing the first and second derivative of the digital terrain model (slope and curvature maps). Using the curvature maps, it is shown that one can assess the areas most likely to be affected by the propagation of the sliding masses. The procedure is first applied on a simple theoretical model and then used on a representative section of a high exposure area in Romania. The method is described by comparison with Romanian legislation for risk and vulnerability assessment, which specifies that the landslide hazard is to be assessed, using an average hazard factor Km, obtained from various other factors. Following the employed example, it is observed that using the Km factor there is an inconsistent distribution of the polygonal surfaces corresponding to different landslide potential. For small values of Km (0.00..0.10) the polygonal surfaces have reduced dimensions along the slopes belonging to main rivers. This can be corrected by including in the analysis the potential areas to be affected by soil instability. Finally, it is shown that the proposed procedure can be used to better assess these areas and to produce more reliable landslide hazard maps. This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research, Program for research - Space Technology and Advanced Research - STAR, project number 30/2012.

Study on the Influence of Elevation of Tailing Dam on Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Shuai; Wang, Kun; Kong, Songtao; Zhao, Runan; Lan, Ying; Zhang, Run

2017-12-01

This paper takes Yunnan as the object of a tailing, by theoretical analysis and numerical calculation method of the effect of seismic load effect of elevation on the stability of the tailing, to analyse the stability of two point driven safety factor and liquefaction area. The Bishop method is adopted to simplify the calculation of dynamic safety factor and liquefaction area analysis using comparison method of shear stress to analyse liquefaction, so we obtained the influence of elevation on the stability of the tailing. Under the earthquake, with the elevation increased, the safety coefficient of dam body decreases, shallow tailing are susceptible to liquefy. Liquefaction area mainly concentrated in the bank below the water surface, to improve the scientific basis for the design and safety management of the tailing.

Application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard-assessment & management on the state of Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Rosendahl Appelquist, Lars; Balstrøm, Thomas

2015-04-01

This paper presents the application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment & management under a changing global climate on the state of Karnataka, India. The recently published methodology termed the Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) is designed for local, regional and national hazard screening in areas with limited data availability, and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The application makes use of published geophysical data and remote sensing information and is showcasing how the CHW framework can be applied at a scale relevant for regional planning purposes. It uses a GIS approach to develop regional and sub-regional hazard maps as well as to produce relevant hazard risk data, and includes a discussion of uncertainties, limitations and management perspectives. The hazard assessment shows that 61 percent of Karnataka's coastline has a high or very high inherent hazard of erosion, making erosion the most prevalent coastal hazard. The hazards of flooding and salt water intrusion are also relatively widespread as 39 percent of Karnataka's coastline has a high or very high inherent hazard for both of these hazard types. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Rockfall hazard and risk assessment in the Yosemite Valley, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guzzetti, F.; Reichenbach, P.; Wieczorek, G.F.

2003-01-01

Rock slides and rock falls are the most frequent types of slope movements in Yosemite National Park, California. In historical time (1857-2002) 392 rock falls and rock slides have been documented in the valley, and some of them have been mapped in detail. We present the results of an attempt to assess rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley. Spatial and temporal aspects of rock falls hazard are considered. A detailed inventory of slope movements covering the 145-year period from 1857 to 2002 is used to determine the frequency-volume statistics of rock falls and to estimate the annual frequency of rock falls, providing the temporal component of rock fall hazard. The extent of the areas potentially subject to rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley were obtained using STONE, a physically-based rock fall simulation computer program. The software computes 3-dimensional rock fall trajectories starting from a digital elevation model (DEM), the location of rock fall release points, and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the coefficients of normal and tangential energy restitution. For each DEM cell the software calculates the number of rock falls passing through the cell, the maximum rock fall velocity and the maximum flying height. For the Yosemite Valley, a DEM with a ground resolution of 10 ?? 10 m was prepared using topographic contour lines from the U.S. Geological Survey 1:24 000-scale maps. Rock fall release points were identified as DEM cells having a slope steeper than 60??, an assumption based on the location of historical rock falls. Maps of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients and of the rolling friction coefficient were produced from a surficial geologic map. The availability of historical rock falls mapped in detail allowed us to check the computer program performance and to calibrate the model parameters. Visual and statistical comparison of the model results with the mapped rock falls confirmed the accuracy of the model. The model results are compared with a previous map of rockfall talus and with a geomorphic assessment of rock fall hazard based on potential energy referred to as a shadow angle approach, recently completed for the Yosemite Valley. The model results are then used to identify the roads and trails more subject to rock fall hazard. Of the 166.5 km of roads and trails in the Yosemite Valley 31.2% were found to be potentially subject to rock fall hazard, of which 14% are subject to very high hazard. ?? European Geosciences Union 2003.

New Tsunami Inundation Maps for California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose; Uslu, Burak; Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas

2010-05-01

California is the first US State to complete its tsunami inundation mapping. A new generation of tsunami inundation maps is now available for 17 coastal counties.. The new maps offer improved coverage for many areas, they are based on the most recent descriptions of potential tsunami farfield and nearfield sources and use the best available bathymetric and topographic data for modelling. The need for new tsunami maps for California became clear since Synolakis et al (1998) described how inundation projections derived with inundation models that fully calculate the wave evolution over dry land can be as high as twice the values predicted with earlier threshold models, for tsunamis originating from tectonic source. Since the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami when the hazard from offshore submarine landslides was better understood (Bardet et al, 2003), the State of California funded the development of the first generation of maps, based on local tectonic and landslide sources. Most of the hazard was dominated by offshore landslides, whose return period remains unknown but is believed to be higher than 1000 years for any given locale, at least in Southern California. The new generation of maps incorporates local and distant scenarios. The partnership between the Tsunami Research Center at USC, the California Emergency Management Agency and the California Seismic Safety Commission let the State to be the first among all US States to complete the maps. (Exceptions include the offshore islands and Newport Beach, where higher resolution maps are under way). The maps were produced with the lowest cost per mile of coastline, per resident or per map than all other States, because of the seamless integration of the USC and NOAA databases and the use of the MOST model. They are a significant improvement over earlier map generations. As part of a continuous improvement in response, mitigation and planning and community education, the California inundation maps can contribute in reducing tsunami risk. References -Bardet, JP et al (2003), Landslide tsunamis: Recent findings and research directions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 160, (10-11), 1793-1809. -Eisner, R., Borrero, C., Synolakis, C.E. (2001) Inundation Maps for the State of California, International Tsunami Symposium, ITS 2001 Proceedings, NHTMP Review Paper #4, 67-81. -Synolakis, C.E., D. McCarthy, V.V. Titov, J.C. Borrero, (1998) Evaluating the Tsunami Risk in California, CALIFORNIA AND THE WORLD OCEAN '97, 1225-1236, Proceedings ASCE, ISBN: 0-7844-0297-3.

Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

2016-04-01

Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further public training for evacuation. The work is supported from PNII/PCCA 2013 Project DARING 69/2014, financed by UEFISCDI, Romania. Bureau GJ (2003) "Dams and appurtenant facilities" Earthquake Engineering Handbook, CRS Press, WF Chen, and C Scawthorn (eds.), Boca Raton, pp. 26.1-26.47. Bureau GJ and Ballentine GD (2002) "A comprehensive seismic vulnerability and loss assessment of the State of Carolina using HAZUS. Part IV: Dam inventory and vulnerability assessment methodology", 7th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, July 21-25, Boston, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA. Moldovan IA, Popescu E, Constantin A (2008), "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Romania: application for crustal seismic active zones", Romanian Journal of Physics, Vol.53, Nos. 3-4

Creating Geologically Based Radon Potential Maps for Kentucky

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overfield, B.; Hahn, E.; Wiggins, A.; Andrews, W. M., Jr.

2017-12-01

Radon potential in the United States, Kentucky in particular, has historically been communicated using a single hazard level for each county; however, physical phenomena are not controlled by administrative boundaries, so single-value county maps do not reflect the significant variations in radon potential in each county. A more accurate approach uses bedrock geology as a predictive tool. A team of nurses, health educators, statisticians, and geologists partnered to create 120 county maps showing spatial variations in radon potential by intersecting residential radon test kit results (N = 60,000) with a statewide 1:24,000-scale bedrock geology coverage to determine statistically valid radon-potential estimates for each geologic unit. Maps using geology as a predictive tool for radon potential are inherently more detailed than single-value county maps. This mapping project revealed that areas in central and south-central Kentucky with the highest radon potential are underlain by shales and karstic limestones.

Data Model for Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Spatial Support Decision System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrejchenko, Vera; Bakker, Wim; van Westen, Cees

2014-05-01

The goal of the CHANGES Spatial Decision Support System is to support end-users in making decisions related to risk reduction measures for areas at risk from multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. The crucial parts in the design of the system are the user requirements, the data model, the data storage and management, and the relationships between the objects in the system. The implementation of the data model is carried out entirely with an open source database management system with a spatial extension. The web application is implemented using open source geospatial technologies with PostGIS as the database, Python for scripting, and Geoserver and javascript libraries for visualization and the client-side user-interface. The model can handle information from different study areas (currently, study areas from France, Romania, Italia and Poland are considered). Furthermore, the data model handles information about administrative units, projects accessible by different types of users, user-defined hazard types (floods, snow avalanches, debris flows, etc.), hazard intensity maps of different return periods, spatial probability maps, elements at risk maps (buildings, land parcels, linear features etc.), economic and population vulnerability information dependent on the hazard type and the type of the element at risk, in the form of vulnerability curves. The system has an inbuilt database of vulnerability curves, but users can also add their own ones. Included in the model is the management of a combination of different scenarios (e.g. related to climate change, land use change or population change) and alternatives (possible risk-reduction measures), as well as data-structures for saving the calculated economic or population loss or exposure per element at risk, aggregation of the loss and exposure using the administrative unit maps, and finally, producing the risk maps. The risk data can be used for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The data model includes data-structures for CBA and SMCE. The model is at the stage where risk and cost-benefit calculations can be stored but the remaining part is currently under development. Multi-criteria information, user management and the relation of these with the rest of the model is our next step. Having a carefully designed data model plays a crucial role in the development of the whole system for rapid development, keeping the data consistent, and in the end, support the end-user in making good decisions in risk-reduction measures related to multiple natural hazards. This work is part of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN "CHANGES"project (www.changes-itn.edu)

LAV@HAZARD: a Web-GIS Framework for Real-Time Forecasting of Lava Flow Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Negro, C.; Bilotta, G.; Cappello, A.; Ganci, G.; Herault, A.

2014-12-01

Crucial to lava flow hazard assessment is the development of tools for real-time prediction of flow paths, flow advance rates, and final flow lengths. Accurate prediction of flow paths and advance rates requires not only rapid assessment of eruption conditions (especially effusion rate) but also improved models of lava flow emplacement. Here we present the LAV@HAZARD web-GIS framework, which combines spaceborne remote sensing techniques and numerical simulations for real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards. By using satellite-derived discharge rates to drive a lava flow emplacement model, LAV@HAZARD allows timely definition of parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. We take advantage of the flexibility of the HOTSAT thermal monitoring system to process satellite images coming from sensors with different spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions. HOTSAT was designed to ingest infrared satellite data acquired by the MODIS and SEVIRI sensors to output hot spot location, lava thermal flux and discharge rate. We use LAV@HAZARD to merge this output with the MAGFLOW physics-based model to simulate lava flow paths and to update, in a timely manner, flow simulations. Thus, any significant changes in lava discharge rate are included in the predictions. A significant benefit in terms of computational speed was obtained thanks to the parallel implementation of MAGFLOW on graphic processing units (GPUs). All this useful information has been gathered into the LAV@HAZARD platform which, due to the high degree of interactivity, allows generation of easily readable maps and a fast way to explore alternative scenarios. We will describe and demonstrate the operation of this framework using a variety of case studies pertaining to Mt Etna, Sicily. Although this study was conducted on Mt Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas around the world.

Geoelectric hazard maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 year extreme values and the 1989 magnetic storm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna; Bedrosian, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid‐Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983–2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid‐Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid‐Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site‐to‐site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a “100 year” event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

Soil classification for seismic site effect using MASW and ReMi methods: A case study from western Anatolia (Dikili -İzmir)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabulut, Savaş

2018-03-01

The study area is located in the northern part of Izmir, Western Turkey, prone to an active tectonic extensional regime and includes typical features of sedimentary basins, horst-grabens surrounded by a series of normal and strike-slip faults. In September 1939 the Dikili (Kabakum) earthquake with a magnitude of Mw: 6.6 occurred and after this phenomenon, residents moved from the west of Dikili to the east (i.d. soft sediments to relative to rock area). A proper estimate of the earthquake-related hazard for the area is the main objective of this study. The site effect and soil engineering problems for estimating hazard parameters at the soil surface need to be carefully analyzed for seismic site classification and geo-engineering problems like soil liquefaction, soil settlement, soil bearing capacity and soil amplification. To solve the soil static and dynamic problems, shear-wave velocities have been used in a joint interpretation process; Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) and Refraction Microtremor (ReMi) analyses were conducted on 121 sites with 300 × 300 m grid size in an area of 60 km2. It has been proposed that the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw: 6 occurring within 10 years is 64%, when considering the Gutenberg-Richter model. This puts the region under an important earthquake risk. The estimated Vs30 values are ≤180 m/s in the central and the northernmost part of the study area are showing an E type soil after the classification of NEHRP, where alluvial deposits are dominant. Vs30 values in the north and central part are between 180 ≤ Vs ≤ 360 m/s suggesting a D type soil. In the southernmost part of the study area where volcanic rocks are widely distributed, Vs30 values range between 360 and 908 m/s, corresponding to a C type and B type soil. The results show that soil liquefaction induced settlement and soil amplification are the most important problems in the south and the northernmost part of the study area, which is densely populated and encompasses the urbanized part of the study region.

Hydrothermal pretreatment to prevent scale during liquefaction of certain solid carbonaceous materials

DOEpatents

Stone, John B.; Floyd, Frank M.

1984-01-01

Scale formation during the liquefaction of lower ranking coals and similar carbonaceous materials is significantly reduced and/or prevented by hydrothermal pretreatment. The said pretreatment is believed to convert the scale-forming components to the corresponding carbonate prior to liquefaction. The said pretreatment is accomplished at a total pressure within the range from about 1000 to about 4400 psia. Temperature during said pretreatment will generally be within the range from about 500.degree. to about 700.degree. F.

Process for the liquefaction of solid carbonaceous materials wherein nitrogen is separated from hydrogen via ammonia synthesis

DOEpatents

Stetka, Steven S.; Nazario, Francisco N.

1982-01-01

In a process for the liquefaction of solid carbonaceous materials wherein bottoms residues are upgraded with a process wherein air is employed, the improvement wherein nitrogen buildup in the system is avoided by ammonia synthesis. In a preferred embodiment hydrogen from other portions of the liquefaction process will be combined with hydrogen produced as a result of the bottoms upgrading to increase the H.sub.2 :N.sub.2 ratio in the ammonia reactor.

Efficiency and economics of large scale hydrogen liquefaction. [for future generation aircraft requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, C. R.

1975-01-01

Liquid hydrogen is being considered as a substitute for conventional hydrocarbon-based fuels for future generations of commercial jet aircraft. Its acceptance will depend, in part, upon the technology and cost of liquefaction. The process and economic requirements for providing a sufficient quantity of liquid hydrogen to service a major airport are described. The design is supported by thermodynamic studies which determine the effect of process arrangement and operating parameters on the process efficiency and work of liquefaction.

Seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard: from regional to local analysis and use of geological and historical observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, R.; Lorito, S.; Orefice, S.; Graziani, L.; Brizuela, B.; Smedile, A.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; De Martini, P. M.; Maramai, A.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Pantosti, D.

2016-12-01

Site-specific probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses demand very high computational efforts that are often reduced by introducing approximations on tsunami sources and/or tsunami modeling. On one hand, the large variability of source parameters implies the definition of a huge number of potential tsunami scenarios, whose omission could easily lead to important bias in the analysis. On the other hand, detailed inundation maps computed by tsunami numerical simulations require very long running time. When tsunami effects are calculated at regional scale, a common practice is to propagate tsunami waves in deep waters (up to 50-100 m depth) neglecting non-linear effects and using coarse bathymetric meshes. Then, maximum wave heights on the coast are empirically extrapolated, saving a significant amount of computational time. However, moving to local scale, such assumptions drop out and tsunami modeling would require much greater computational resources. In this work, we perform a local Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) for the 50 km long coastal segment between Augusta and Siracusa, a touristic and commercial area placed along the South-Eastern Sicily coast, Italy. The procedure consists in using the outcomes of a regional SPTHA as input for a two-step filtering method to select and substantially reduce the number of scenarios contributing to the specific target area. These selected scenarios are modeled using high resolution topo-bathymetry for producing detailed inundation maps. Results are presented as probabilistic hazard curves and maps, with the goal of analyze, compare and highlight the different results provided by regional and local hazard assessments. Moreover, the analysis is enriched by the use of local observed tsunami data, both geological and historical. Indeed, tsunami data-sets available for the selected target areas are particularly rich with respect to the scarce and heterogeneous data-sets usually available elsewhere. Therefore, they can represent valuable benchmarks for testing and strengthening the results of such kind of studies. The work is funded by the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE, the two EC FP7 projects ASTARTE (Grant agreement 603839) and STREST (Grant agreement 603389), and the INGV-DPC Agreement.

Implementation of numerical simulations for rockfall hazard mapping in the Norddal municipality, Norway.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yugsi Molina, Freddy Xavier; Oppikofer, Thierry; Otterå, Solveig; Hermanns, Reginald; Taurisano, Andrea; Wasrud, Jaran; Are Jensen, Odd; Rødseth Kvakland, Marte

2013-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in cooperation with the Geological Survey of Norway (NGU) are implementing a nationwide program to systematically produce hazard maps for rockfalls, debris flows and snow avalanches in steep terrains. Activities during this program mapping are being carried out by both institutions, and for some areas, outsourced to the private sector. The results presented in this contribution focus on the rockfall component only, and are part of the hazard mapping activities carried out by NGU. Results from all parties involved will further lead in future, in combination with the components on debris flows and snow avalanches, to the preparation of guidelines for landslide hazard mapping. Those will be presented and recommended for the use of private consultants that work on municipality level. The first goal of the project is the preparation of hazard maps for critical areas where a large number of people are exposed to the threat of such type of mass movements. Results from a pilot area in Sylte (Norddal municipality) were presented in the EGU general assembly in 2012. The main objective of this contribution is to present the first finished rockfall hazard maps generated by NGU during the execution of the program. The results presented in this contribution were obtained for the Norddal municipality (Møre og Romsdal county). The area was selected based on the hazard mapping plan of Norway published in 2011, where Norddal is considered a priority area. The area is located in a valley over-steepened by glacial erosion that is characterized by high cliffs of medium to coarse-grained quartz-dioritic to granitic gneisses of Proterozoic age. Multiple scree deposits product of older and recent rockfall activity can be seen along the bottom at both valley flanks. Sylte, the main locality in the Norddal municipality, is located at the valley outlet to the fjord. Several other smaller localities are found along the valley. A spatial geodatabase containing information regarding block sources, block shape and size, rock type, geometry and material properties along the potential rockfall tracks, and presence of natural energy attenuators (i.e. forest) was generated with data obtained during field work. Remote sensing imagery (high resolution aerial photographs), and a high resolution airborne LiDAR-based terrain model (1 m of spatial resolution) were used to extrapolate the information collected during field work to the full extent of the study area. Based on statistical analysis of the observed rock blocks a probability density function of the block size was obtained. This information was used to define the frequency of rockfall events of different sizes. Three scenarios were generated that follow the Norwegian regulations for construction (the Norwegian Building Act) for three different return periods: 100, 1000, and 5000 years. Numerical simulations using Rockyfor3D v. 5.0 (www.ecorisq.org) were performed for the three selected scenarios. Curves representing the maximum reach of blocks for every defined scenario with the sufficient energy to cause enough damage on buildings and houses that could threat the life of their inhabitants were used to define the hazard maps. Results show a good fit with the location of scree deposits found during field recognition. According to the results for events corresponding to the 100 year return period, populated areas are out of the hazardous zones except for the area of Sylte due to the proximity of the village to a large rock cliff. 1000 and 5000 year scenarios show some other localities along the valley prone to be affected by rockfalls. Maps will be communicated to local authorities to help defining short and long term policies regarding land use.

Bench-scale research in biomass liquefaction in support of the Albany, Oregon experimental facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, D. C.

1981-03-01

The liquefaction of solid materials (wood, newsprint, animal manure) by beating to produce useful liquid fuels was investigated. Highlights of work performed include: (1) catalyst mechanism studies; (2) analytical reports on TR8 and TR9 product oils; (3) liquid chromatography/mass spectroscopy analysis of wood oil; (4) batch conversion tests on bottom material; (5) vapor pressure studies; and (6) product evaluation. It was confirmed that the key process parameters and the effects of varying operating conditions are in support of biomass liquefaction.

Liquefaction of solid carbonaceous material with catalyst recycle

DOEpatents

Gupta, Avinash; Greene, Marvin I.

1992-01-01

In the two stage liquefaction of a carbonaceous solid such as coal wherein coal is liquefied in a first stage in the presence of a liquefaction solvent and the first stage effluent is hydrogenated in the presence of a supported hydrogenation catalyst in a second stage, catalyst which has been previously employed in the second stage and comminuted to a particle size distribution equivalent to 100% passing through U.S. 100 Mesh, is passed to the first stage to improve the overall operation.

Liquefaction sites, Imperial Valley, California.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Youd, T.L.; Bennett, M.J.

1983-01-01

Sands that did and did not liquefy at two sites during the 1979 Imperial Valley, Calif., earthquake (ML = 6.6) are identified and their properties evaluated. SPT tests were used to evaluate liquefaction susceptibility. Loose fine sands in an abandoned channel liquefied and produced sand boils, ground fissures, and a lateral spread at the Heber Road sites. Evidence of liquefaction was not observed over moderately dense over-bank sand east of the channel nor over dense point-bar sand to the west. -from ASCE Publications Information

Geoelectric Hazard Maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 Year Extreme Values and the 1989 Magnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna; Bedrosian, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid-Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983-2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid-Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid-Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site-to-site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a "100 year" event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shandro, Bret; Haegeli, Pascal

2018-04-01

The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using self-organizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie

2011-01-01

This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

USGS Training in Afghanistan: Modern Earthquake Hazards Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medlin, J. D.; Garthwaite, M.; Holzer, T.; McGarr, A.; Bohannon, R.; Bergen, K.; Vincent, T.

2007-05-01

Afghanistan is located in a tectonically active region where ongoing deformation has generated rugged mountainous terrain, and where large earthquakes occur frequently. These earthquakes can present a significant hazard, not only from strong ground shaking, but also from liquefaction and extensive land sliding. The magnitude 6.1 earthquake of March 25, 2002 highlighted the vulnerability of Afghanistan to such hazards, and resulted in over 1000 fatalities. The USGS has provided the first of a series of Earth Science training courses to the Afghan Geological Survey (AGS). This course was concerned with modern earthquake hazard assessments, and is an integral part of a larger USGS effort to provide a comprehensive seismic-hazard assessment for Afghanistan. Funding for these courses is provided by the US Agency for International Development Afghanistan Reconstruction Program. The particular focus of this training course, held December 2-6, 2006 in Kabul, was on providing a background in the seismological and geological methods relevant to preparing for future earthquakes. Topics included identifying active faults, modern tectonic theory, geotechnical measurements of near-surface materials, and strong-motion seismology. With this background, participants may now be expected to educate other members of the community and be actively involved in earthquake hazard assessments themselves. The December, 2006, training course was taught by four lecturers, with all lectures and slides being presented in English and translated into Dari. Copies of the lectures were provided to the students in both hardcopy and digital formats. Class participants included many of the section leaders from within the AGS who have backgrounds in geology, geophysics, and engineering. Two additional training sessions are planned for 2007, the first entitled "Modern Concepts in Geology and Mineral Resource Assessments," and the second entitled "Applied Geophysics for Mineral Resource Assessments."

Extreme-event geoelectric hazard maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Bedrosian, P.

2017-12-01

Maps covering about half of the continental United States are presented of geoelectric field amplitude that will be exceeded, on average, once per century in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic disturbance. These maps are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: convolving latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic disturbance, obtained from decades of 1-minute magnetic observatory data, with local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained at discrete geographic sites from magnetotelluric surveys. Geoelectric amplitudes are estimated for geomagnetic waveforms having 240-s (and 1200-s) sinusoidal period and amplitudes over 10 minutes (1-hr) that exceed a once-per-century threshold. As a result of the combination of geographic differences in geomagnetic variation and Earth-surface impedance, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes span more than two orders of magnitude and are a highly granular function of location. Specifically: for north-south 240-s induction, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes across large parts of the United States have a median value of 0.34 V/km; for east-west variation, they have a median value of 0.23 V/km. In Northern Minnesota, amplitudes exceed 14.00 V/km for north-south geomagnetic variation (23.34 V/km for east-west variation), while just over 100 km away, amplitudes are only 0.08 V/km (0.02 V/km). At some sites in the Northern Central United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes exceed the 2 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. These hazard maps are incomplete over large parts of the United States, including major population centers in the southern United States, due to a lack of publically available impedance data.

Integrated risk management and communication: case study of Canton Vaud (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artigue, Veronica; Aye, Zar Chi; Gerber, Christian; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2017-04-01

Canton Vaud's history is marked by events that remind us that any territory may have to cope with natural hazards such as devastating floods of the Baye and the Veraye rivers in Montreux (1927), the overflowing of the Rhône by dam failure (1935), the mud flow of Pissot (1995) and avalanches in the Prealps (1999). All of these examples have caused significant damage, and sometimes even fatalities, in the regions of Canton Vaud. In response to these new issues, the Swiss Confederation and the local authorities of the Canton decided to implement an integrated management policy of natural risks. The realization of natural hazards maps was the first step of the integrated management process. This work resulted in more than 10'000 maps and related documents for 94% of the municipalities of the Canton, covering 17% of its total surface. From this significant amount of data, the main issue is to propose a relevant communication and to build an integrated risk management structure. To make this available information relevant for end users, the implied teams worked to realize documents and tools for a better understanding of these data by all stakeholders. The first step of this process was to carry out a statistical and geographical analysis of hazard maps that allows identifying the most exposed areas to natural hazards. An atlas could thus be created. Then, continued under this framework, several topics have been discussed for each identified risk. The results show that 88 of 318 municipalities in Canton Vaud have at least a high hazard level on their territory, 108 with a moderate hazard level, 41 with a low level and 8 with a residual level. Only 73 of 318 municipalities remain with a minimum or zero hazard level. Concerning the type of hazard considered, 16% of the building zones are exposed to floods, 18% to mud flow, 16% to deep landslides, 14% to spontaneous surface landslides, 6% to rockfall, 55% to rock collapses and less than 5% to avalanches. As the national policies require to take into account the risk at the building scale, further analysis on the buildings have been made. 1'154 buildings are exposed to a high hazard level, while 8409, 21'130 and 14'980 buildings are exposed to a moderate, low and residual hazard level respectively. This paper addresses the complexity of the realization of the hazard map products of the Canton Vaud, particularly through the statistical analysis and the difficulties encountered for data availability and quality at the building scale. The authors highlight the necessary processes to build a robust communication for all the implied stakeholders of risk management in a dynamic and changing area through the example of the Canton Vaud.

Oregon Hazard Explorer for Lifelines Program (OHELP): A web-based geographic information system tool for assessing potential Cascadia earthquake hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi Mood, M.; Olsen, M. J.; Gillins, D. T.; Javadnejad, F.

2016-12-01

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has the ability to generate earthquake as powerful as 9 moment magnitude creating great amount of damage to structures and facilities in Oregon. Series of deterministic earthquake analysis are performed for M9.0, M8.7, M8.4 and M8.1 presenting persistent, long lasting shaking associated with other geological threats such as ground shaking, landslides, liquefaction-induced ground deformations, fault rupture vertical displacement, tsunamis, etc. These ground deformation endangers urban structures, foundations, bridges, roadways, pipelines and other lifelines. Lifeline providers in Oregon, including private and public practices responsible for transportation, electric and gas utilities, water and wastewater, fuel, airports, and harbors face an aging infrastructure that was built prior to a full understanding of this extreme seismic risk. As recently experienced in Chile and Japan, a three to five minutes long earthquake scenario, expected in Oregon, necessities a whole different method of risk mitigation for these major lifelines than those created for shorter shakings from crustal earthquakes. A web-based geographic information system tool is developed to fully assess the potential hazard from the multiple threats impending from Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes in the region. The purpose of this website is to provide easy access to the latest and best available hazard information over the web, including work completed in the recent Oregon Resilience Plan (ORP) (OSSPAC, 2013) and other work completed by the Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). As a result, this tool is designated for engineers, planners, geologists, and others who need this information to help make appropriate decisions despite the fact that this web-GIS tool only needs minimal knowledge of GIS to work with.

Engineering Evaluation of Post-Liquefaction Residual Strengths

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-01-10

The past decade has seen rapid advances in the understanding of post-liquefaction residual strength (and associated stress-deformation behavior). Despite this progress, the intrinsic difficulties involved continue to render the engineering assessment...

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California: a new mapping tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerstenberger, Matt; Wiemer, Stefan; Jones, Lucy

2004-01-01

We have derived a multi-model approach to calculate time-dependent earthquake hazard resulting from earthquake clustering. This file report explains the theoretical background behind the approach, the specific details that are used in applying the method to California, as well as the statistical testing to validate the technique. We have implemented our algorithm as a real-time tool that has been automatically generating short-term hazard maps for California since May of 2002, at http://step.wr.usgs.gov

Alabama-Mississippi Coastal Classification Maps - Perdido Pass to Cat Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Peterson, Russell L.

2005-01-01

The primary purpose of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Project is to provide accurate representations of pre-storm ground conditions for areas that are designated high-priority because they have dense populations or valuable resources that are at risk from storm waves. Another purpose of the project is to develop a geomorphic (land feature) coastal classification that, with only minor modification, can be applied to most coastal regions in the United States. A Coastal Classification Map describing local geomorphic features is the first step toward determining the hazard vulnerability of an area. The Coastal Classification Maps of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Project present ground conditions such as beach width, dune elevations, overwash potential, and density of development. In order to complete a hazard vulnerability assessment, that information must be integrated with other information, such as prior storm impacts and beach stability. The Coastal Classification Maps provide much of the basic information for such an assessment and represent a critical component of a storm-impact forecasting capability. The map above shows the areas covered by this web site. Click on any of the location names or outlines to view the Coastal Classification Map for that area.

A continuous map of near-surface S-wave attenuation in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Houtte, Chris; Ktenidou, Olga-Joan; Larkin, Tam; Holden, Caroline

2018-04-01

Quantifying the near-surface attenuation of seismic waves at a given location can be important for seismic hazard analysis of high-frequency ground motion. This study calculates the site attenuation parameter, κ0, at 41 seismograph locations in New Zealand. Combined with results of a previous study, a total of 46 κ0 values are available across New Zealand. The results compare well with previous t* studies, revealing high attenuation in the volcanic arc and forearc ranges, and low attenuation in the South Island. However, for site-specific seismic hazard analyses, there is a need to calculate κ0 at locations away from a seismograph location. For these situations, it is common to infer κ0 from weak correlations with the shear wave velocity in the top 30 m, VS30, or to adopt an indicative regional value. This study attempts to improve on this practice. Geostatistical models of the station-specific κ0 data are developed, and continuous maps are derived using ordinary kriging. The obtained κ0 maps can provide a median κ0 and its uncertainty for any location in New Zealand, which may be useful for future site-specific seismic hazard analyses.

Liquefaction process

DOEpatents

Gorbaty, Martin L.; Stone, John B.; Poddar, Syamal K.

1982-01-01

Scale formation during the liquefaction of lower ranking coals and similar carbonaceous materials is significantly reduced and/or prevented by pretreatment with a combination of pretreating agents comprising SO.sub.2 and an oxidizing agent. The pretreatment is believed to convert at least a portion of the scale-forming components and particularly calcium, to the corresponding sulfate prior to liquefaction. The pretreatment may be accomplished with the combination of pretreating agents either simultaneously by using a mixture comprising SO.sub.2 and an oxidizing agent or sequentially by first treating with SO.sub.2 and then with an oxidizing agent.

78 FR 36215 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

... Cloud County, Kansas, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: www.fema.gov.... City of Miltonvale City Hall, 107 Starr Avenue, Miltonvale, KS 67466. Unincorporated Areas of Cloud County... Cloud County Courthouse, 811 Washington Street, Concordia, KS 66901. (Catalog of Federal...

Evaluation of liquefaction hazards in Washington state.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

This report describes the results of a detailed investigation of improved procedures for evaluation of : liquefaction hazards in Washington State, and describes the development and use of a computer : program, WSliq, that allows rapid and convenient ...

A unified classification model for modeling of seismic liquefaction potential of soil based on CPT

PubMed Central

Samui, Pijush; Hariharan, R.

2014-01-01

The evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil due to an earthquake is an important step in geosciences. This article examines the capability of Minimax Probability Machine (MPM) for the prediction of seismic liquefaction potential of soil based on the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) data. The dataset has been taken from Chi–Chi earthquake. MPM is developed based on the use of hyperplanes. It has been adopted as a classification tool. This article uses two models (MODEL I and MODEL II). MODEL I employs Cone Resistance (qc) and Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR) as input variables. qc and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) have been taken as inputs for MODEL II. The developed MPM gives 100% accuracy. The results show that the developed MPM can predict liquefaction potential of soil based on qc and PGA. PMID:26199749

A unified classification model for modeling of seismic liquefaction potential of soil based on CPT.

PubMed

Samui, Pijush; Hariharan, R

2015-07-01

The evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil due to an earthquake is an important step in geosciences. This article examines the capability of Minimax Probability Machine (MPM) for the prediction of seismic liquefaction potential of soil based on the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) data. The dataset has been taken from Chi-Chi earthquake. MPM is developed based on the use of hyperplanes. It has been adopted as a classification tool. This article uses two models (MODEL I and MODEL II). MODEL I employs Cone Resistance (q c) and Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR) as input variables. q c and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) have been taken as inputs for MODEL II. The developed MPM gives 100% accuracy. The results show that the developed MPM can predict liquefaction potential of soil based on q c and PGA.

Lava inundation zone maps for Mauna Loa, Island of Hawaiʻi, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trusdell, Frank A.; Zoeller, Michael H.

2017-10-12

Lava flows from Mauna Loa volcano, on the Island of Hawaiʻi, constitute a significant hazard to people and property. This report addresses those lava flow hazards, mapping 18 potential lava inundation zones on the island.

Atlas of natural hazards in the Hawaiian coastal zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, Charles H.; Grossman, Eric E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Gibbs, Ann E.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this report is to communicate to citizens and regulatory authorities the history and relative intensity of coastal hazards in Hawaii. This information is the key to the wise use and management of coastal resources. The information contained in this document,we hope,will improve the ability of Hawaiian citizens and visitors to safely enjoy the coast and provide a strong data set for planners and managers to guide the future of coastal resources. This work is largely based on previous investigations by scientific and engineering researchers and county, state, and federal offices and agencies. The unique aspect of this report is that, to the extent possible, it assimilates prior efforts in documenting Hawaiian coastal hazards and combines existing knowledge into a single comprehensive coastal hazard data set. This is by no means the final word on coastal hazards in Hawaii. Every hazardous phenomenon described here, and others such as slope failure and rocky shoreline collapse, need to be more carefully quantified, forecast, and mitigated. Our ultimate goal, of course, is to make the Hawaiian coast a safer place by educating the people of the state, and their leaders, about the hazardous nature of the environment. In so doing, we will also be taking steps toward improved preservation of coastal environments, because the best way to avoid coastal hazards is to avoid inappropriate development in the coastal zone. We have chosen maps as the medium for both recording and communicating the hazard history and its intensity along the Hawaiian coast.Two types of maps are used: 1) smallscale maps showing a general history of hazards on each island and summarizing coastal hazards in a readily understandable format for general use, and 2) a large-scale series of technical maps (1:50,000) depicting coastal sections approximately 5 to 7 miles in length with color bands along the coast ranking the relative intensity of each hazard at the adjacent shoreline.

Corrosion Considerations for Thermochemical Biomass Liquefaction Process Systems in Biofuel Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brady, M. P.; Keiser, J. R.; Leonard, D. N.; Whitmer, L.; Thomson, J. K.

2014-12-01

Thermochemical liquefaction processing of biomass to produce bio-derived fuels (e.g., gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, home heating oil, etc.) is of great recent interest as a renewable energy source. Approaches under investigation include direct liquefaction, hydrothermal liquefaction, hydropyrolysis, fast pyrolysis, etc., to produce energy dense liquids that can be utilized as produced or further processed to provide products of higher value. An issue with bio-oils is that they tend to contain significant concentrations of organic oxygenates, including acids, which make the bio-oil a potential source of corrosion issues in transport, storage, and use. Efforts devoted to modified/further processing of bio-oils to make them less corrosive are currently being widely pursued. Another issue that must also be addressed in bio-oil liquefaction is potential corrosion issues in the process equipment. Depending on the specific process, bio-oil liquefaction production temperatures are typically in the 300-600°C range, and the process environment can contain aggressive sulfur and halide species from both the biomass used and/or process additives. Detailed knowledge of the corrosion resistance of candidate process equipment alloys in these bio-oil production environments is currently lacking. This paper summarizes recent, ongoing efforts to assess the extent of corrosion of bio-oil process equipment, with the ultimate goal of providing a basis for the selection of the lowest cost alloy grades capable of providing the long-term corrosion resistance needed for future bio-oil production plants.

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

1999-01-01

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of the Americas depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The largest seismic hazard values in the western hemisphere generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. Although the largest earthquakes ever recorded are the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska subduction zone earthquakes, the largest seismic hazard (PGA) value in the Americas is in Southern California (U.S.), along the San Andreas fault.

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Risi, Raffaele; Goda, Katsuichiro

2017-08-01

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

Comparison of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O.

2012-04-01

An overview is made of the landslide hazard and risk assessment practices that are officially promoted or applied in Europe by administration offices, geological surveys, and decision makers (recommendations, regulations and codes). The reported countries are: Andorra, Austria, France, Italy (selected river basins), Romania, Spain (Catalonia), Switzerland and United Kingdom. The objective here was to compare the different practices for hazard and risk evaluation with respect to the official policies, the methodologies used (qualitative and quantitative), the provided outputs and their contents, and the terminology and map symbols used. The main observations made are illustrated with examples and the possibility of harmonization of the policies and the application of common practices to bridge the existing gaps is discussed. Some of the conclusions reached include the following: zoning maps are legally binding for public administrators and land owners only in some cases and generally when referring to site-specific or local scales rather than regional or national ones; so far, information is mainly provided on landslide susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment is performed only in a few countries; there is a variation in the use of scales between countries; the classification criteria for landslide types and mechanisms present large diversity even within the same country (in some cases no landslide mechanisms are specified while in others there is an exhaustive list); the techniques to obtain input data for the landslide inventory and susceptibility maps vary from basic to sophisticated, resulting in various levels of data quality and quantity; the procedures followed for hazard and risk assessment include analytical procedures supported by computer simulation, weighted-indicators, expert judgment and field survey-based, or a combination of all; there is an important variation between hazard and risk matrices with respect to the used parameters, the thresholds defining the different hazard or risk levels and the number and physical interpretation of the latter. In this context suggestions are made to bridge the gaps between the practices and to enhance homogenization of the hazard and risk assessment procedures and of their outputs. This work is presented within the framework of the SafeLand project funded by the European Commission's FP7 programme.

TILT : the Treasure Island Liquefaction Test : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

This report presents the results of the Treasure Island Liquefaction Test (TILT), a joint project carried out by University of California, San Diego, and Brigham Young University. To improve our understanding of the lateral load behavior of deep foun...

Examination of the behavior of gravity quay wall against liquefaction under the effect of wall width and soil improvement.

PubMed

Firoozi, Ali Akbar; Taha, Mohd Raihan; Mir Moammad Hosseini, S M; Firoozi, Ali Asghar

2014-01-01

Deformation of quay walls is one of the main sources of damage to port facility while liquefaction of backfill and base soil of the wall are the main reasons for failures of quay walls. During earthquakes, the most susceptible materials for liquefaction in seashore regions are loose saturated sand. In this study, effects of enhancing the wall width and the soil improvement on the behavior of gravity quay walls are examined in order to obtain the optimum improved region. The FLAC 2D software was used for analyzing and modeling progressed models of soil and loading under difference conditions. Also, the behavior of liquefiable soil is simulated by the use of "Finn" constitutive model in the analysis models. The "Finn" constitutive model is especially created to determine liquefaction phenomena and excess pore pressure generation.

Donor solvent coal liquefaction with bottoms recycle at elevated pressure

DOEpatents

Bauman, Richard F.; Taunton, John W.; Anderson, George H.; Trachte, Ken L.; Hsia, Steve J.

1982-01-01

An improved process for liquefying solid carbonaceous materials wherein increased naphtha yields are achieved by effecting the liquefaction at a pressure within the range from about 1750 to about 2800 psig in the presence of recycled bottoms and a hydrogen-donor solvent containing at least 0.8 wt % donatable hydrogen. The liquefaction is accomplished at a temperature within the range from about 700.degree. to about 950.degree. F. The coal:bottoms ratio in the feed to liquefaction will be within the range from about 1:1 to about 5:1 and the solvent or diluent to total solids ratio will be at least 1.5:1 and preferably within the range from about 1.6:1 to about 3:1. The yield of naphtha boiling range materials increases as the pressure increases but generally reaches a maximum at a pressure within the range from about 2000 to about 2500 psig.

Machine learning modelling for predicting soil liquefaction susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samui, P.; Sitharam, T. G.

2011-01-01

This study describes two machine learning techniques applied to predict liquefaction susceptibility of soil based on the standard penetration test (SPT) data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The first machine learning technique which uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on multi-layer perceptions (MLP) that are trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm. The second machine learning technique uses the Support Vector machine (SVM) that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses classification technique. ANN and SVM have been developed to predict liquefaction susceptibility using corrected SPT [(N1)60] and cyclic stress ratio (CSR). Further, an attempt has been made to simplify the models, requiring only the two parameters [(N1)60 and peck ground acceleration (amax/g)], for the prediction of liquefaction susceptibility. The developed ANN and SVM models have also been applied to different case histories available globally. The paper also highlights the capability of the SVM over the ANN models.

Catalysts and process developments for two-stage liquefaction. Third quarterly technical progress report No. 44, April 1, 1991--June 30, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cronauer, D.C.; Swanson, A.J.; Sajkowski, D.J.

Research under way in this project centers upon developing and evaluating catalysts and process improvements for coal liquefaction in the two-stage close-coupled catalytic process. As documented in the previous quarterly report (Task 3.1), there was little advantage for presoaking Black Thunder coal or Martin Lake lignite in a hydrogen-donor solvent, such as tetralin, at temperatures up to 600{degrees}F prior to liquefaction at higher temperatures. The amount of decarboxylation that occurred during the presoaking of Black Thunder coal or Martin Lake lignite in tetralin in the temperature range of 400 to 600{degrees}F was also relatively small. Further experimentation was undertaken inmore » a continuous flow unit with Black Thunder coal, where the primary goal was to determine the extent of decarboxylation and changes in the structure of the unconverted coal samples. The preliminary results indicated little conversion of the feed coal to THF solubles at 600{degrees}F, although the conversion did increase with increasing temperature up to 24% at 700{degrees}F. The level of decarboxylation was also low at the above reaction temperatures. Thus, presoaking in a coal-derived solvent or even tetralin does not seem to be an effective means to achieve decarboxylation. A suitable sample of Illinois No. 6 coal was received and tested for liquefaction. The batch liquefaction showed that this sample had good reactivity. The continuous liquefaction test was done in a two-stage unit with AMOCAT{trademark}-1C catalyst in both reactors. A significant amount of resid was produced throughout this three-week run. As the catalyst aged, the distillate production decreased and its product quality got worse. The feedstock liquefaction studies for the three feedstocks (Black Thunder subbituminous coal, Martin Lake lignite, and Illinois No. 6 coal) have been completed, and their results will be compared in a subsequent quarterly report.« less

Catalyst system and process for benzyl ether fragmentation and coal liquefaction

DOEpatents

Zoeller, Joseph Robert

1998-04-28

Dibenzyl ether can be readily cleaved to form primarily benzaldehyde and toluene as products, along with minor amounts of bibenzyl and benzyl benzoate, in the presence of a catalyst system comprising a Group 6 metal, preferably molybdenum, a salt, and an organic halide. Although useful synthetically for the cleavage of benzyl ethers, this cleavage also represents a key model reaction for the liquefaction of coal; thus this catalyst system and process should be useful in coal liquefaction with the advantage of operating at significantly lower temperatures and pressures.

Shear-wave velocity-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, R.; Moss, R.E.S.; Thompson, E.M.; Seed, R.B.; Cetin, K.O.; Der Kiureghian, A.; Tanaka, Y.; Tokimatsu, K.

2013-01-01

Shear-wave velocity (Vs) offers a means to determine the seismic resistance of soil to liquefaction by a fundamental soil property. This paper presents the results of an 11-year international project to gather new Vs site data and develop probabilistic correlations for seismic soil liquefaction occurrence. Toward that objective, shear-wave velocity test sites were identified, and measurements made for 301 new liquefaction field case histories in China, Japan, Taiwan, Greece, and the United States over a decade. The majority of these new case histories reoccupy those previously investigated by penetration testing. These new data are combined with previously published case histories to build a global catalog of 422 case histories of Vs liquefaction performance. Bayesian regression and structural reliability methods facilitate a probabilistic treatment of the Vs catalog for performance-based engineering applications. Where possible, uncertainties of the variables comprising both the seismic demand and the soil capacity were estimated and included in the analysis, resulting in greatly reduced overall model uncertainty relative to previous studies. The presented data set and probabilistic analysis also help resolve the ancillary issues of adjustment for soil fines content and magnitude scaling factors.

Quantitative characterization of the aqueous fraction from hydrothermal liquefaction of algae

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maddi, Balakrishna; Panisko, Ellen; Wietsma, Thomas

Aqueous streams generated from hydrothermal liquefaction contain approximately 30% of the total carbon present from the algal feed. Hence, this aqueous carbon must be utilized to produce liquid fuels and/or specialty chemicals for economic sustainability of hydrothermal liquefaction on industrial scale. In this study, aqueous fractions produced from the hydrothermal liquefaction of fresh water and saline water algal cultures were analyzed using a wide variety of analytical instruments to determine their compositional characteristics. This study will also inform researchers designing catalysts for down-stream processing such as high-pressure catalytic conversion of organics in aqueous phase, catalytic hydrothermal gasification, and biological conversions.more » Organic chemical compounds present in all eight aqueous fractions were identified using two-dimensional gas chromatography equipped with time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Identified compounds include organic acids, nitrogen compounds and aldehydes/ketones. Conventional gas chromatography and liquid chromatography methods were utilized to quantify the identified compounds. Inorganic species in the aqueous stream of hydrothermal liquefaction of algae were identified using ion chromatography and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer. The concentrations of organic chemical compounds and inorganic species are reported. The amount quantified carbon ranged from 45 to 72 % of total carbon in the aqueous fractions.« less

Volcanic structures and oral traditions of volcanism of Western Samoa (SW Pacific) and their implications for hazard education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Németh, Károly; Cronin, Shane J.

2009-10-01

The Samoan Islands have experienced > 2 million years of volcanism, culminating in historic eruptions at both the east and western ends of the chain including a major lava-producing episode on the island of Savai'i from AD 1905-1911. Upolu in Western Samoa has several areas mapped as early Holocene in age (> 5 ka), but here we present new evidence for fresh volcanic landforms and deposits, supported by a radiocarbon date of 1915 ± 65 yrs B.P., giving a maximum age to a phreatomagmatic tuff cone offshore of Cape Tapaga, east Upolu. In addition, we report on a parallel investigation of the oral traditions of communities surrounding fresh volcanic landforms that may reflect distant "volcanic memories" passed down over generations. To accommodate Samoan cultural structures, oral traditional knowledge was sought through semi-structured interviews with small groups (3-4) or individuals. Samoan facilitators focused on high-ranking and traditionally respected (particularly elderly) individuals for explanations of the origins of local features, including their genesis, use and any related geo-hazards. Areas targeted were those where young eruptions (< 3500 yr BP) were suspected from geological mapping. In stark contrast to communities in Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea or the Solomon Islands, the village communities show extremely limited knowledge of their volcanic heritage. Youthful volcanic landforms are often not recognised as such and appear to play little role in everyday life. Few, if any, legends are attached to any volcanic feature. Instead, oral traditions deal primarily with the origins of Samoans (overlain by strong Christian teachings), and past disputes/battles and wrongdoings between tribes/neighbours. The only exceptions to this were identified in legends from East Upolu, where offshore islands (tuff cones) are associated with late Holocene explosive phreatomagmatic volcanism. Maps drawn by individuals and groups interviewed, highlighted the resources and landscapes important in their lives. The majority of these were prepared as 3D oblique-view sketches, rather than plan-views, showing little in common with typical hazard maps used in the area. In addition, maps were commonly restricted strictly to boundaries of local communities, ignoring major features (such as fresh volcanic cones) that were in the territory of "next door" villages. These perspectives need to be focused upon in future iterations of hazard maps and hazard-education programmes for Samoa and similar Polynesian communities.

Viscosity Depressants for Coal Liquefaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalfayan, S. H.

1983-01-01

Proposed process modification incorporates viscosity depressants to prevent coal from solidifying during liquefaction. Depressants reduce amount of heat needed to liquefy coal. Possible depressants are metallic soaps, such as stearate, and amides, such as stearamide and dimer acid amides.

Liquefaction-induced downdrag on drilled shafts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

Sandy soil layers reduce in volume during and following liquefaction. The downward relative movement of the overlying soil layers around drilled shafts induces shear stress along the shaft and changes the axial load distribution. Depending on the sit...

Direct liquefaction of plastics and coprocessing of coal with plastics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huffman, G.P.; Feng, Z.; Mahajan, V.

1995-12-31

The objectives of this work were to optimize reaction conditions for the direct liquefaction of waste plastics and the coprocessing of coal with waste plastics. In previous work, the direct liquefaction of medium and high density polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PPE), poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET), and a mixed plastic waste, and the coliquefaction of these plastics with coals of three different ranks was studied. The results established that a solid acid catalyst (HZSM-5 zeolite) was highly active for the liquefaction of the plastics alone, typically giving oil yields of 80-95% and total conversions of 90-100% at temperatures of 430-450 {degrees}C. In themore » coliquefaction experiments, 50:50 mixtures of plastic and coal were used with a tetralin solvent (tetralin:solid = 3:2). Using approximately 1% of the HZSM-5 catalyst and a nanoscale iron catalyst, oil yields of 50-70% and total conversion of 80-90% were typical. In the current year, further investigations were conducted of the liquefaction of PE, PPE, and a commingled waste plastic obtained from the American Plastics Council (APC), and the coprocessing of PE, PPE and the APC plastic with Black Thunder subbituminous coal. Several different catalysts were used in these studies.« less

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and vulnerability and presented in the same way as the vulnerability, as a GIS-based map. Risk maps show geographic regions in Slovenia where droughts pose a major threat to the agriculture and together with the vulnerability maps provide the basis for drought management, in particular for the appropriate mitigation and response actions in specific regions. The developed methodology is expected to be applied to the entire region of South-Eastern Europe within the initiative of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe.

77 FR 29678 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-18

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent..., and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/7293.htm... Online at: http://www.dnr.sc.gov/water/flood/comaps.html City of Manning 29 West Boyce Street, Manning...

Comparison of oxygen liquefaction methods for use on the Martian surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, W. L.; Hauser, D. M.; Plachta, D. W.; Wang, X.-Y. J.; Banker, B. F.; Desai, P. S.; Stephens, J. R.; Swanger, A. M.

2018-03-01

In order to use oxygen that is produced on the surface of Mars from In-Situ production processes in a chemical propulsion system, the oxygen must first be converted from vapor phase to liquid phase and then stored within the propellant tanks of the propulsions system. There are multiple ways that this can be accomplished, from simply attaching a liquefaction system onto the propellant tanks to carrying separate tanks for liquefaction and storage of the propellant and loading just prior to launch (the way that traditional rocket launches occur on Earth). A study was done into these various methods by which the oxygen (and methane) could be liquefied and stored on the Martian surface. Five different architectures or cycles were considered: Tube-on-Tank (also known as Broad Area Cooling or Distributed Refrigeration), Tube-in-Tank (also known as Integrated Refrigeration and Storage), a modified Linde open liquefaction/refrigeration cycle, the direct mounting of a pulse tube cryocooler onto the tank, and an in-line liquefier at ambient pressure. Models of each architecture were developed to give insight into the performance and losses of each of the options. The results were then compared across eight categories: Mass, Power (both input and heat rejection), Operability, Cost, Manufacturability, Reliability, Volume-ility, and Scalability. The result was that Tube-on-Tank and Tube-in-Tank architectures were the most attractive solutions, with NASA's engineering management choosing to pursue tube on tank development rather than further differentiate the two. As a result NASA is focusing its Martian surface liquefaction activities and technology development on Tube-on-Tank liquefaction cycles.

Design procedure for Bridge Foundations Subject to Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spreading

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The response of piled bridge foundations to liquefaction-induced lateral soil deformation is an important design consideration in seismically active regions. Recent research and case history data suggest that three-dimensional deformation of the appr...

Appendix : liquefaction damage to bridges and approach embankment : catalog of selected case histories.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-11-01

The catalog documents the seismic performance of bridges and ancillary components in the presence of liquefaction-induced ground displacements. Data pertaining to seismological, geotechnical, and structural aspects of numerous case studies are presen...

Arias intensity assessment of liquefaction test sites on the east side of San Francisco Bay affected by the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of 17 October 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, R.E.

1997-01-01

Abstract. Uncompacted artificial-fill deposits on the east side of San Francisco Bay suffered severe levels of soil liquefaction during the Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. Damaged areas included maritime-port facilities, office buildings, and shoreline transportation arteries, ranging from 65 to 85 km from the north end of the Loma Prieta rupture zone. Typical of all these sites, which represent occurrences of liquefaction-induced damage farthest from the rupture zone, are low cone penetration test and Standard Penetration Test resistances in zones of cohesionless silty and sandy hydraulic fill, and underlying soft cohesive Holocene and Pleistocene sediment that strongly amplified ground motions. Postearthquake investigations at five study sites using standard penetration tests and cone penetration tests provide a basis for evaluation of the Arias intensity-based methodology for assessment of liquefaction susceptibility. ?? 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Examination of the Behavior of Gravity Quay Wall against Liquefaction under the Effect of Wall Width and Soil Improvement

PubMed Central

Taha, Mohd Raihan; Mir Moammad Hosseini, S. M.

2014-01-01

Deformation of quay walls is one of the main sources of damage to port facility while liquefaction of backfill and base soil of the wall are the main reasons for failures of quay walls. During earthquakes, the most susceptible materials for liquefaction in seashore regions are loose saturated sand. In this study, effects of enhancing the wall width and the soil improvement on the behavior of gravity quay walls are examined in order to obtain the optimum improved region. The FLAC 2D software was used for analyzing and modeling progressed models of soil and loading under difference conditions. Also, the behavior of liquefiable soil is simulated by the use of “Finn” constitutive model in the analysis models. The “Finn” constitutive model is especially created to determine liquefaction phenomena and excess pore pressure generation. PMID:25126595

Case studies on direct liquefaction of low rank Wyoming coal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adler, P.; Kramer, S.J.; Poddar, S.K.

Previous Studies have developed process designs, costs, and economics for the direct liquefaction of Illinois No. 6 and Wyoming Black Thunder coals at mine-mouth plants. This investigation concerns two case studies related to the liquefaction of Wyoming Black Thunder coal. The first study showed that reducing the coal liquefaction reactor design pressure from 3300 to 1000 psig could reduce the crude oil equivalent price by 2.1 $/bbl provided equivalent performing catalysts can be developed. The second one showed that incentives may exist for locating a facility that liquifies Wyoming coal on the Gulf Coast because of lower construction costs andmore » higher labor productivity. These incentives are dependent upon the relative values of the cost of shipping the coal to the Gulf Coast and the increased product revenues that may be obtained by distributing the liquid products among several nearby refineries.« less

Biomass Direct Liquefaction Options. TechnoEconomic and Life Cycle Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tews, Iva J.; Zhu, Yunhua; Drennan, Corinne

The purpose of this work was to assess the competitiveness of two biomass to transportation fuel processing routes, which were under development in Finland, the U.S. and elsewhere. Concepts included fast pyrolysis (FP), and hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), both followed by hydrodeoxygenation, and final product refining. This work was carried out as a collaboration between VTT (Finland), and PNNL (USA). The public funding agents for the work were Tekes in Finland and the Bioenergy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy. The effort was proposed as an update of the earlier comparative technoeconomic assessment performed by the IEA Bioenergy Directmore » Biomass Liquefaction Task in the 1980s. New developments in HTL and the upgrading of the HTL biocrude product triggered the interest in reinvestigating this comparison of these biomass liquefaction processes. In addition, developments in FP bio-oil upgrading had provided additional definition of this process option, which could provide an interesting comparison.« less

The use of mixed pyrrhotite/pyrite catalysts for co-liquefaction of coal and waste rubber tires

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dadyburjor, D.B.; Zondlo, J.W.; Sharma, R.K.

1995-12-31

The overall objective of this research program is to determine the optimum processing conditions for tire/coal co-liquefaction. The catalysts used will be a ferric-sulfide-based materials, as well as promising catalysts from other consortium laboratories. The intent here is to achieve the maximum coal+tire conversion at the mildest conditions of temperature and pressure. Specific objectives include an investigation of the effects of time, temperature, pressure, catalyst and co-solvent on the conversion and product slate of the co-liquefaction. Accomplishments and conclusions are discussed.

Mapping of hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides in developing countries: Examples from Honduras and Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, E.L.; Reid, M.E.; McKenna, J.P.; Michael, J.A.

2009-01-01

Loss of life and property caused by landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events demonstrates the need for landslide-hazard assessment in developing countries where recovery from such events often exceeds the country's resources. Mapping landslide hazards in developing countries where the need for landslide-hazard mitigation is great but the resources are few is a challenging, but not intractable problem. The minimum requirements for constructing a physically based landslide-hazard map from a landslide-triggering storm, using the simple methods we discuss, are: (1) an accurate mapped landslide inventory, (2) a slope map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) or topographic map, and (3) material strength properties of the slopes involved. Provided that the landslide distribution from a triggering event can be documented and mapped, it is often possible to glean enough topographic and geologic information from existing databases to produce a reliable map that depicts landslide hazards from an extreme event. Most areas of the world have enough topographic information to provide digital elevation models from which to construct slope maps. In the likely event that engineering properties of slope materials are not available, reasonable estimates can be made with detailed field examination by engineering geologists or geotechnical engineers. Resulting landslide hazard maps can be used as tools to guide relocation and redevelopment, or, more likely, temporary relocation efforts during severe storm events such as hurricanes/typhoons to minimize loss of life and property. We illustrate these methods in two case studies of lethal landslides in developing countries: Tegucigalpa, Honduras (during Hurricane Mitch in 1998) and the Chuuk Islands, Micronesia (during Typhoon Chata'an in 2002).

Fired heater for coal liquefaction process

DOEpatents

Ying, David H. S.

1984-01-01

A fired heater for a coal liquefaction process is constructed with a heat transfer tube having U-bends at regular intervals along the length thereof to increase the slug frequency of the multi-phase mixture flowing therethrough to thereby improve the heat transfer efficiency.

Evaluation of seismic hazard at the northwestern part of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzelarab, M.; Shokry, M. M. F.; Mohamed, A. M. E.; Helal, A. M. A.; Mohamed, Abuoelela A.; El-Hadidy, M. S.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 0.2° × 0.2° covering the study area, seismic hazard curves for every node were calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to six spectral periods (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 s) for return periods of 72, 475 and 2475 years. The unified hazard spectra of two selected rock sites at Alexandria and Mersa Matruh Cities were provided. Finally, the hazard curves were de-aggregated to determine the sources that contribute most of hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for the mentioned selected sites.

Design optimization of single mixed refrigerant LNG process using a hybrid modified coordinate descent algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qyyum, Muhammad Abdul; Long, Nguyen Van Duc; Minh, Le Quang; Lee, Moonyong

2018-01-01

Design optimization of the single mixed refrigerant (SMR) natural gas liquefaction (LNG) process involves highly non-linear interactions between decision variables, constraints, and the objective function. These non-linear interactions lead to an irreversibility, which deteriorates the energy efficiency of the LNG process. In this study, a simple and highly efficient hybrid modified coordinate descent (HMCD) algorithm was proposed to cope with the optimization of the natural gas liquefaction process. The single mixed refrigerant process was modeled in Aspen Hysys® and then connected to a Microsoft Visual Studio environment. The proposed optimization algorithm provided an improved result compared to the other existing methodologies to find the optimal condition of the complex mixed refrigerant natural gas liquefaction process. By applying the proposed optimization algorithm, the SMR process can be designed with the 0.2555 kW specific compression power which is equivalent to 44.3% energy saving as compared to the base case. Furthermore, in terms of coefficient of performance (COP), it can be enhanced up to 34.7% as compared to the base case. The proposed optimization algorithm provides a deep understanding of the optimization of the liquefaction process in both technical and numerical perspectives. In addition, the HMCD algorithm can be employed to any mixed refrigerant based liquefaction process in the natural gas industry.

A critical investigation of post-liquefaction strength and steady-state flow behavior of saturated soils

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jong, H.L.

1988-01-01

The first objective was to perform a critical evaluation of the recently proposed steady-state analysis methodology for evaluation of post-liquefaction stability of potentially liquefiable soils. This analysis procedure is based on direct comparison between the in-situ undrained residual (steady state) strength of soils in an embankment or foundation, and the driving shear stresses in these soils. A laboratory investigation was performed to investigate factors affecting steady-state strengths, and also to evaluate the validity of assumptions involved in correcting the results of laboratory steady-state strength tests on undisturbed samples for effects of sampling disturbance in order to estimate in-situ strengths. Next,more » a field case study was performed using the steady-state analysis and testing methodologies to analyze Lower San Fernando Dam, which suffered a liquefaction-induced slope failure as a results of a 1971 earthquake. This leads to the second objective which was to extend the Lower San Fernando Dam case study to consideration of analysis methods used to evaluate the likelihood of triggering liquefaction during an earthquake. Finally, a number of the high quality undisturbed samples were subjected to undrained cyclic testing in order to repeat an earlier (1973) study of the use of cyclic tests data to predict liquefaction behavior at Lower San Fernando Dam.« less

Vertical ground motion and its effects on liquefaction resistance of fully saturated sand deposits

PubMed Central

Kontoe, Stavroula; Taborda, David M. G.; Potts, David M.

2016-01-01

Soil liquefaction has been extensively investigated over the years with the aim to understand its fundamental mechanism and successfully remediate it. Despite the multi-directional nature of earthquakes, the vertical seismic component is largely neglected, as it is traditionally considered to be of much lower amplitude than the components in the horizontal plane. The 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand is a prime example that vertical accelerations can be of significant magnitude, with peak amplitudes well exceeding their horizontal counterparts. As research on this topic is very limited, there is an emerging need for a more thorough investigation of the vertical motion and its effect on soil liquefaction. As such, throughout this study, uni- and bidirectional finite-element analyses are carried out focusing on the influence of the input vertical motion on sand liquefaction. The effects of the frequency content of the input motion, of the depth of the deposit and of the hydraulic regime, using variable permeability, are investigated and exhaustively discussed. The results indicate that the usual assumption of linear elastic response when compressional waves propagate in a fully saturated sand deposit does not always hold true. Most importantly post-liquefaction settlements appear to be increased when the vertical component is included in the analysis. PMID:27616931

Liquefaction, ground oscillation, and soil deformation at the Wildlife Array, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, T.L.; Youd, T.L.

2007-01-01

Excess pore-water pressure and liquefaction at the Wildlife Liquefaction Array in 1987 were caused by deformation associated with both high-frequency strong ground motion and 5.5-second-period Love waves. The Love waves produced large (???1.5%) cyclic shear strains well after the stronger high-frequency ground motion abated. These cyclic strains generated approximately from 13 to 35% of the excess pore-water pressure in the liquefied layer and caused excess pore-water pressures ultimately to reach effective overburden stress. The deformation associated with the Love waves explains the "postearthquake" increase of pore-water pressure that was recorded at the array. This explanation suggests that conventional methods for predicting liquefaction based on peak ground acceleration are incomplete and may need to consider cyclic strains associated with long-period surface waves. A post-earthquake survey of an inclinometer casing indicated permanent shear strain associated with lateral spreading primarily occurred in the upper part of the liquefied layer. Comparison of cone penetration test soundings conducted after the earthquake with pre-earthquake soundings suggests sleeve friction increased. Natural lateral variability of the liquefied layer obscured changes in tip resistance despite a ???1% reduction in volume. The large oscillatory motion associated with surface waves explains ground oscillation that has been reported at some liquefaction sites during earthquakes.

The effect of wind and eruption source parameter variations on tephra fallout hazard assessment: an example from Vesuvio (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedonio, Giovanni; Costa, Antonio; Scollo, Simona; Neri, Augusto

2015-04-01

Uncertainty in the tephra fallout hazard assessment may depend on different meteorological datasets and eruptive source parameters used in the modelling. We present a statistical study to analyze this uncertainty in the case of a sub-Plinian eruption of Vesuvius of VEI = 4, column height of 18 km and total erupted mass of 5 × 1011 kg. The hazard assessment for tephra fallout is performed using the advection-diffusion model Hazmap. Firstly, we analyze statistically different meteorological datasets: i) from the daily atmospheric soundings of the stations located in Brindisi (Italy) between 1962 and 1976 and between 1996 and 2012, and in Pratica di Mare (Rome, Italy) between 1996 and 2012; ii) from numerical weather prediction models of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Furthermore, we modify the total mass, the total grain-size distribution, the eruption column height, and the diffusion coefficient. Then, we quantify the impact that different datasets and model input parameters have on the probability maps. Results shows that the parameter that mostly affects the tephra fallout probability maps, keeping constant the total mass, is the particle terminal settling velocity, which is a function of the total grain-size distribution, particle density and shape. Differently, the evaluation of the hazard assessment weakly depends on the use of different meteorological datasets, column height and diffusion coefficient.

Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Altai-Sayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2017-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Kivu rift segment based on a new seismotectonic zonation model (western branch, East African Rift system)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvaux, Damien; Mulumba, Jean-Luc; Sebagenzi, Mwene Ntabwoba Stanislas; Bondo, Silvanos Fiama; Kervyn, François; Havenith, Hans-Balder

2017-10-01

In the frame of the Belgian GeoRisCA multi-risk assessment project focusing on the Kivu and northern Tanganyika rift region in Central Africa, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed for the Kivu rift segment in the central part of the western branch of the East African rift system. As the geological and tectonic setting of this region is incompletely known, especially the part lying in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we compiled homogeneous cross-border tectonic and neotectonic maps. The seismic risk assessment is based on a new earthquake catalogue based on the ISC reviewed earthquake catalogue and supplemented by other local catalogues and new macroseismic epicenter data spanning 126 years, with 1068 events. The magnitudes have been homogenized to Mw and aftershocks removed. The final catalogue used for the seismic hazard assessment spans 60 years, from 1955 to 2015, with 359 events and a magnitude of completeness of 4.4. The seismotectonic zonation into 7 seismic source areas was done on the basis of the regional geological structure, neotectonic fault systems, basin architecture and distribution of thermal springs and earthquake epicenters. The Gutenberg-Richter seismic hazard parameters were determined by the least square linear fit and the maximum likelihood method. Seismic hazard maps have been computed using existing attenuation laws with the Crisis 2012 software. We obtained higher PGA values (475 years return period) for the Kivu rift region than the previous estimates. They also vary laterally in function of the tectonic setting, with the lowest value in the volcanically active Virunga - Rutshuru zone, highest in the currently non-volcanic parts of Lake Kivu, Rusizi valley and North Tanganyika rift zone, and intermediate in the regions flanking the axial rift zone.

Microzonation in Urban Areas, Basic Element for Land-Use Planning, Risk Management and Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres Morales, G. F.; Dávalos Sotelo, R.; Castillo Aguilar, S.; Mora González, I.; Lermo Samaniego, J. F.; Rodriguez, M.; García Martínez, J.; Suárez, M. Leonardo; Hernández Juan, F.

2013-05-01

This paper presents the results of microzonification of the natural hazards for different metropolitan areas and highlights the importance of integrating these results in urban planning. The cities that have been covered for the definition of danger in the state of Veracruz are: Orizaba, Veracruz and Xalapa, as part of the production of a Geological and Hydrometeorology Hazards Atlas for the state of Veracruz, financed by the Funds for the Prevention of Natural Disasters FOPREDEN and CONACYT. The general data of each metropolitan area was integrated in a geographic information system (GIS), obtaining different theme maps, and maps of dynamic characteristics of soils in each metropolitan area. For the planning of an urban area to aspire to promote sustainable development, it is essential to have a great deal of the details on the pertinent information and the most important is that that has to do with the degree of exposure to natural phenomena. In general, microzonation investigations consider all natural phenomena that could potentially affect an area of interest and hazard maps for each of potential hazards are prepared. With all the data collected and generated and fed into a SIG, models were generated which define the areas most threatened by earthquake, flood and landslide slopes. These results were compared with maps of the main features in the urban zones and a qualitative classification of areas of high to low hazard was established. It will have the basic elements of information for urban planning and land use. This information will be made available to the authorities and the general public through an Internet portal where people can download and view maps using free software available online.;

Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2015-12-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

2017-12-01

We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncoulon, D.; Labat, D.; Ardon, J.; Onfroy, T.; Leblois, E.; Poulard, C.; Aji, S.; Rémy, A.; Quantin, A.

2013-07-01

The analysis of flood exposure at a national scale for the French insurance market must combine the generation of a probabilistic event set of all possible but not yet occurred flood situations with hazard and damage modeling. In this study, hazard and damage models are calibrated on a 1995-2012 historical event set, both for hazard results (river flow, flooded areas) and loss estimations. Thus, uncertainties in the deterministic estimation of a single event loss are known before simulating a probabilistic event set. To take into account at least 90% of the insured flood losses, the probabilistic event set must combine the river overflow (small and large catchments) with the surface runoff due to heavy rainfall, on the slopes of the watershed. Indeed, internal studies of CCR claim database has shown that approximately 45% of the insured flood losses are located inside the floodplains and 45% outside. 10% other percent are due to seasurge floods and groundwater rise. In this approach, two independent probabilistic methods are combined to create a single flood loss distribution: generation of fictive river flows based on the historical records of the river gauge network and generation of fictive rain fields on small catchments, calibrated on the 1958-2010 Météo-France rain database SAFRAN. All the events in the probabilistic event sets are simulated with the deterministic model. This hazard and damage distribution is used to simulate the flood losses at the national scale for an insurance company (MACIF) and to generate flood areas associated with hazard return periods. The flood maps concern river overflow and surface water runoff. Validation of these maps is conducted by comparison with the address located claim data on a small catchment (downstream Argens).

A Software Tool for Quantitative Seismicity Analysis - ZMAP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiemer, S.; Gerstenberger, M.

2001-12-01

Earthquake catalogs are probably the most basic product of seismology, and remain arguably the most useful for tectonic studies. Modern seismograph networks can locate up to 100,000 earthquakes annually, providing a continuous and sometime overwhelming stream of data. ZMAP is a set of tools driven by a graphical user interface (GUI), designed to help seismologists analyze catalog data. ZMAP is primarily a research tool suited to the evaluation of catalog quality and to addressing specific hypotheses; however, it can also be useful in routine network operations. Examples of ZMAP features include catalog quality assessment (artifacts, completeness, explosion contamination), interactive data exploration, mapping transients in seismicity (rate changes, b-values, p-values), fractal dimension analysis and stress tensor inversions. Roughly 100 scientists worldwide have used the software at least occasionally. About 30 peer-reviewed publications have made use of ZMAP. ZMAP code is open source, written in the commercial software language Matlab by the Mathworks, a widely used software in the natural sciences. ZMAP was first published in 1994, and has continued to grow over the past 7 years. Recently, we released ZMAP v.6. The poster will introduce the features of ZMAP. We will specifically focus on ZMAP features related to time-dependent probabilistic hazard assessment. We are currently implementing a ZMAP based system that computes probabilistic hazard maps, which combine the stationary background hazard as well as aftershock and foreshock hazard into a comprehensive time dependent probabilistic hazard map. These maps will be displayed in near real time on the Internet. This poster is also intended as a forum for ZMAP users to provide feedback and discuss the future of ZMAP.