Improving spatial prediction of Schistosoma haematobium prevalence in southern Ghana through new remote sensors and local water access profiles.

PubMed

Kulinkina, Alexandra V; Walz, Yvonne; Koch, Magaly; Biritwum, Nana-Kwadwo; Utzinger, Jürg; Naumova, Elena N

2018-06-04

Schistosomiasis is a water-related neglected tropical disease. In many endemic low- and middle-income countries, insufficient surveillance and reporting lead to poor characterization of the demographic and geographic distribution of schistosomiasis cases. Hence, modeling is relied upon to predict areas of high transmission and to inform control strategies. We hypothesized that utilizing remotely sensed (RS) environmental data in combination with water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) variables could improve on the current predictive modeling approaches. Schistosoma haematobium prevalence data, collected from 73 rural Ghanaian schools, were used in a random forest model to investigate the predictive capacity of 15 environmental variables derived from RS data (Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, and Global Digital Elevation Model) with fine spatial resolution (10-30 m). Five methods of variable extraction were tested to determine the spatial linkage between school-based prevalence and the environmental conditions of potential transmission sites, including applying the models to known human water contact locations. Lastly, measures of local water access and groundwater quality were incorporated into RS-based models to assess the relative importance of environmental and WASH variables. Predictive models based on environmental characterization of specific locations where people contact surface water bodies offered some improvement as compared to the traditional approach based on environmental characterization of locations where prevalence is measured. A water index (MNDWI) and topographic variables (elevation and slope) were important environmental risk factors, while overall, groundwater iron concentration predominated in the combined model that included WASH variables. The study helps to understand localized drivers of schistosomiasis transmission. Specifically, unsatisfactory water quality in boreholes perpetuates reliance of surface water bodies, indirectly increasing schistosomiasis risk and resulting in rapid reinfection (up to 40% prevalence six months following preventive chemotherapy). Considering WASH-related risk factors in schistosomiasis prediction can help shift the focus of control strategies from treating symptoms to reducing exposure.

Characterization of the Deep Water Surface Wave Variability in the California Current Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villas Bôas, Ana B.; Gille, Sarah T.; Mazloff, Matthew R.; Cornuelle, Bruce D.

2017-11-01

Surface waves are crucial for the dynamics of the upper ocean not only because they mediate exchanges of momentum, heat, energy, and gases between the ocean and the atmosphere, but also because they determine the sea state. The surface wave field in a given region is set by the combination of local and remote forcing. The present work characterizes the seasonal variability of the deep water surface wave field in the California Current region, as retrieved from over two decades of satellite altimetry data combined with wave buoys and wave model hindcast (WaveWatch III). In particular, the extent to which the local wind modulates the variability of the significant wave height, peak period, and peak direction is assessed. During spring/summer, regional-scale wind events of up to 10 m/s are the dominant forcing for waves off the California coast, leading to relatively short-period waves (8-10 s) that come predominantly from the north-northwest. The wave climatology throughout the California Current region shows average significant wave heights exceeding 2 m during most of the year, which may have implications for the planning and retrieval methods of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission.

Analytical modeling and tolerance analysis of a linear variable filter for spectral order sorting.

PubMed

Ko, Cheng-Hao; Chang, Kuei-Ying; Huang, You-Min

2015-02-23

This paper proposes an innovative method to overcome the low production rate of current linear variable filter (LVF) fabrication. During the fabrication process, a commercial coater is combined with a local mask on a substrate. The proposed analytical thin film thickness model, which is based on the geometry of the commercial coater, is developed to more effectively calculate the profiles of LVFs. Thickness tolerance, LVF zone width, thin film layer structure, transmission spectrum and the effects of variations in critical parameters of the coater are analyzed. Profile measurements demonstrate the efficacy of local mask theory in the prediction of evaporation profiles with a high degree of accuracy.

Calculation of the Local Free Energy Landscape in the Restricted Region by the Modified Tomographic Method.

PubMed

Chen, Changjun

2016-03-31

The free energy landscape is the most important information in the study of the reaction mechanisms of the molecules. However, it is difficult to calculate. In a large collective variable space, a molecule must take a long time to obtain the sufficient sampling during the simulation. To save the calculation quantity, decreasing the sampling region and constructing the local free energy landscape is required in practice. However, the restricted region in the collective variable space may have an irregular shape. Simply restricting one or more collective variables of the molecule cannot satisfy the requirement. In this paper, we propose a modified tomographic method to perform the simulation. First, it divides the restricted region by some hyperplanes and connects the centers of hyperplanes together by a curve. Second, it forces the molecule to sample on the curve and the hyperplanes in the simulation and calculates the free energy data on them. Finally, all the free energy data are combined together to form the local free energy landscape. Without consideration of the area outside the restricted region, this free energy calculation can be more efficient. By this method, one can further optimize the path quickly in the collective variable space.

A multi-site analysis of the association between black carbon concentrations and vehicular idling, traffic, background pollution, and meteorology during school dismissals.

PubMed

Richmond-Bryant, J; Bukiewicz, L; Kalin, R; Galarraga, C; Mirer, F

2011-05-01

A study was performed to assess the relationship between black carbon (BC), passing traffic, and vehicular idling outside New York City (NYC) schools during student dismissal. Monitoring was performed at three school sites in East Harlem, the Bronx, and Brooklyn for 1month per year over a two-year period from November 2006-October 2008. Monitoring at each site was conducted before and after the Asthma Free School Zone (AFSZ) asthma reduction education program was administered. Real-time equipment with a one-minute averaging interval was used to obtain the BC data, while volume counts of idling and passing school busses, trucks, and automobiles were collected each minute by study staff. These data were matched to ambient PM(2.5) and meteorology data obtained from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. A generalized additive model (GAM) model was run to examine the relationship between BC concentration and each variable while accounting for site-to-site differences. F-tests were employed to assess the significance of each of the predictor variables. The model results suggested that variability in ambient PM(2.5) concentration contributed 24% of the variability in transformed BC concentration, while variability in the number of idling busses and trucks on the street during dismissal contributed 20% of the variability in transformed BC concentration. The results of this study suggest that a combination of urban scale and local traffic control approaches in combination with cessation of school bus idling will produce improved local BC concentration outside schools. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, Tabitha A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kendall, Katherine C.; Beier, Paul; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Macleod, Amy C.

2012-01-01

Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic) and bear rubs (opportunistic). We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models) with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1) lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2) provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3) yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight), and (4) improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed against those risks. The analysis framework presented here will be useful for other species exhibiting heterogeneity by detection method.

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change

PubMed Central

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E.; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change. PMID:26295478

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

PubMed

Penaluna, Brooke E; Dunham, Jason B; Railsback, Steve F; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

A possible loophole in the theorem of Bell.

PubMed

Hess, K; Philipp, W

2001-12-04

The celebrated inequalities of Bell are based on the assumption that local hidden parameters exist. When combined with conflicting experimental results, these inequalities appear to prove that local hidden parameters cannot exist. This contradiction suggests to many that only instantaneous action at a distance can explain the Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen type of experiments. We show that, in addition to the assumption that hidden parameters exist, Bell tacitly makes a variety of other assumptions that contribute to his being able to obtain the desired contradiction. For instance, Bell assumes that the hidden parameters do not depend on time and are governed by a single probability measure independent of the analyzer settings. We argue that the exclusion of time has neither a physical nor a mathematical basis but is based on Bell's translation of the concept of Einstein locality into the language of probability theory. Our additional set of local hidden variables includes time-like correlated parameters and a generalized probability density. We prove that our extended space of local hidden variables does not permit Bell-type proofs to go forward.

Two-dimensional analytical modeling of a linear variable filter for spectral order sorting.

PubMed

Ko, Cheng-Hao; Wu, Yueh-Hsun; Tsai, Jih-Run; Wang, Bang-Ji; Chakraborty, Symphony

2016-06-10

A two-dimensional thin film thickness model based on the geometry of a commercial coater which can calculate more effectively the profiles of linear variable filters (LVFs) has been developed. This is done by isolating the substrate plane as an independent coordinate (local coordinate), while the rotation and translation matrices are used to establish the coordinate transformation and combine the characteristic vector with the step function to build a borderline which can conclude whether the local mask will block the deposition or not. The height of the local mask has been increased up to 40 mm in the proposed model, and two-dimensional simulations are developed to obtain a thin film profile deposition on the substrate inside the evaporation chamber to achieve the specific request of producing a LVF zone width in a more economical way than previously reported [Opt. Express23, 5102 (2015)OPEXFF1094-408710.1364/OE.23.005102].

Local-scale topoclimate effects on treeline elevations: a country-wide investigation of New Zealand's southern beech treelines.

PubMed

Case, Bradley S; Buckley, Hannah L

2015-01-01

Although treeline elevations are limited globally by growing season temperature, at regional scales treelines frequently deviate below their climatic limit. The cause of these deviations relate to a host of climatic, disturbance, and geomorphic factors that operate at multiple scales. The ability to disentangle the relative effects of these factors is currently hampered by the lack of reliable topoclimatic data, which describe how regional climatic characteristics are modified by topographic effects in mountain areas. In this study we present an analysis of the combined effects of local- and regional-scale factors on southern beech treeline elevation variability at 28 study areas across New Zealand. We apply a mesoscale atmospheric model to generate local-scale (200 m) meteorological data at these treelines and, from these data, we derive a set of topoclimatic indices that reflect possible detrimental and ameliorative influences on tree physiological functioning. Principal components analysis of meteorological data revealed geographic structure in how study areas were situated in multivariate space along gradients of topoclimate. Random forest and conditional inference tree modelling enabled us to tease apart the relative effects of 17 explanatory factors on local-scale treeline elevation variability. Overall, modelling explained about 50% of the variation in treeline elevation variability across the 28 study areas, with local landform and topoclimatic effects generally outweighing those from regional-scale factors across the 28 study areas. Further, the nature of the relationships between treeline elevation variability and the explanatory variables were complex, frequently non-linear, and consistent with the treeline literature. To our knowledge, this is the first study where model-generated meteorological data, and derived topoclimatic indices, have been developed and applied to explain treeline variation. Our results demonstrate the potential of such an approach for ecological research in mountainous environments.

Local-scale topoclimate effects on treeline elevations: a country-wide investigation of New Zealand’s southern beech treelines

PubMed Central

Buckley, Hannah L.

2015-01-01

Although treeline elevations are limited globally by growing season temperature, at regional scales treelines frequently deviate below their climatic limit. The cause of these deviations relate to a host of climatic, disturbance, and geomorphic factors that operate at multiple scales. The ability to disentangle the relative effects of these factors is currently hampered by the lack of reliable topoclimatic data, which describe how regional climatic characteristics are modified by topographic effects in mountain areas. In this study we present an analysis of the combined effects of local- and regional-scale factors on southern beech treeline elevation variability at 28 study areas across New Zealand. We apply a mesoscale atmospheric model to generate local-scale (200 m) meteorological data at these treelines and, from these data, we derive a set of topoclimatic indices that reflect possible detrimental and ameliorative influences on tree physiological functioning. Principal components analysis of meteorological data revealed geographic structure in how study areas were situated in multivariate space along gradients of topoclimate. Random forest and conditional inference tree modelling enabled us to tease apart the relative effects of 17 explanatory factors on local-scale treeline elevation variability. Overall, modelling explained about 50% of the variation in treeline elevation variability across the 28 study areas, with local landform and topoclimatic effects generally outweighing those from regional-scale factors across the 28 study areas. Further, the nature of the relationships between treeline elevation variability and the explanatory variables were complex, frequently non-linear, and consistent with the treeline literature. To our knowledge, this is the first study where model-generated meteorological data, and derived topoclimatic indices, have been developed and applied to explain treeline variation. Our results demonstrate the potential of such an approach for ecological research in mountainous environments. PMID:26528407

Lewis's Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis): A technical conservation assessment

Treesearch

Stephen C. Abele; Victoria A. Saab; Edward O. Garton

2004-01-01

Lewis's woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) is a locally common but patchily distributed woodpecker species usually seen in open forests of western North America. The combination of its sporadic distribution, its diet of adult-stage free-living insects (primarily aerial), its preference to nest in burned landscapes, and its variable migratory behavior...

Comparison Between the Use of Ropivacaine Alone and Ropivacaine With Sufentanil in Epidural Labor Analgesia

PubMed Central

Wang, Xian; Xu, Shiqin; Qin, Xiang; Li, Xiaohong; Feng, Shan-Wu; Liu, Yusheng; Wang, Wei; Guo, Xirong; Shen, Rong; Shen, Xiaofeng; Wang, Fuzhou

2015-01-01

Abstract To compare the analgesic efficacy and safety of the sole local anesthetic ropivacaine with the combination of both local anesthetic ropivacaine and opioidergic analgesic sufentanil given epidurally on the labor pain control. After institutional review board approval and patient consent, a total of 500 nulliparas requesting epidural labor analgesia were enrolled and 481 eventually were randomized into 2 groups: a sole local anesthetic group (ropivacaine 0.125%) and a combination of local anesthetic and opioidergic analgesic group (0.125% ropivacaine + 0.3 μg/mL sufentanil). After the test dose, a 10-mL epidural analgesic solution was given in a single bolus, followed by intermittent bolus injection of 10 to 15 mL of the solution. The primary outcome was the analgesic efficacy measured using Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) of pain. Other maternal and infant variables were evaluated as secondary outcomes. A total of 346 participants completed the study. The median NRS pain score during the 1st stage of labor was significantly lower in the combination group 2.2 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.8–2.7) comparing to the sole local analgesic group 2.4 (IQR: 2.0–2.8) (P < 0.0001). No significant difference was observed in NRS pain score prior epidural analgesia and during the 2nd stage of labor. Patients in both groups rated same satisfaction of analgesia. Patients in the sole local analgesic group experienced fewer side effects than those in the combination group (37.7% vs 47.2%, P = 0.082). The individual analgesia-related cost in the sole local analgesic group was less ($5.7 ± 2.06) than that in the combination group ($9.76 ± 3.54) (P < 0.0001). The incidence of 1-minute Apgar ≤ 7 was lower in the sole local analgesic group 2 (1.2%) than the combination group 10 (5.5%) (P = 0.038). No difference was found between other secondary outcomes. The sole local anesthetic ropivacaine produces a comparable labor analgesic effect as the combination of both local anesthetic ropivacaine and opioidergic analgesic sufentanil at different stages of labor (ΔNRS = 0.2) but the former has less side effects, lower cost, and less incidence of lower 1-minute Apgar scoring. These results imply the necessity of a systematic reevaluation of epidural labor analgesia with sole local anesthetics against combination regimens of local anesthetics and other opioids. PMID:26512604

Comparison Between the Use of Ropivacaine Alone and Ropivacaine With Sufentanil in Epidural Labor Analgesia.

PubMed

Wang, Xian; Xu, Shiqin; Qin, Xiang; Li, Xiaohong; Feng, Shan-Wu; Liu, Yusheng; Wang, Wei; Guo, Xirong; Shen, Rong; Shen, Xiaofeng; Wang, Fuzhou

2015-10-01

To compare the analgesic efficacy and safety of the sole local anesthetic ropivacaine with the combination of both local anesthetic ropivacaine and opioidergic analgesic sufentanil given epidurally on the labor pain control.After institutional review board approval and patient consent, a total of 500 nulliparas requesting epidural labor analgesia were enrolled and 481 eventually were randomized into 2 groups: a sole local anesthetic group (ropivacaine 0.125%) and a combination of local anesthetic and opioidergic analgesic group (0.125% ropivacaine + 0.3 μg/mL sufentanil). After the test dose, a 10-mL epidural analgesic solution was given in a single bolus, followed by intermittent bolus injection of 10 to 15 mL of the solution. The primary outcome was the analgesic efficacy measured using Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) of pain. Other maternal and infant variables were evaluated as secondary outcomes.A total of 346 participants completed the study. The median NRS pain score during the 1st stage of labor was significantly lower in the combination group 2.2 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.8-2.7) comparing to the sole local analgesic group 2.4 (IQR: 2.0-2.8) (P < 0.0001). No significant difference was observed in NRS pain score prior epidural analgesia and during the 2nd stage of labor. Patients in both groups rated same satisfaction of analgesia. Patients in the sole local analgesic group experienced fewer side effects than those in the combination group (37.7% vs 47.2%, P = 0.082). The individual analgesia-related cost in the sole local analgesic group was less ($5.7 ± 2.06) than that in the combination group ($9.76 ± 3.54) (P < 0.0001). The incidence of 1-minute Apgar ≤ 7 was lower in the sole local analgesic group 2 (1.2%) than the combination group 10 (5.5%) (P = 0.038). No difference was found between other secondary outcomes.The sole local anesthetic ropivacaine produces a comparable labor analgesic effect as the combination of both local anesthetic ropivacaine and opioidergic analgesic sufentanil at different stages of labor (ΔNRS = 0.2) but the former has less side effects, lower cost, and less incidence of lower 1-minute Apgar scoring. These results imply the necessity of a systematic reevaluation of epidural labor analgesia with sole local anesthetics against combination regimens of local anesthetics and other opioids.

Combination of photodynamic therapy and immunotherapy - evolving role in dermatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiu-Li; Wang, Hong-Wei; Huang, Zheng

2008-02-01

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a promising treatment modality. It offers alternative options in the treatment of cancer and vascular diseases. In cancer treatment, PDT has been used primarily for localized superficial or endoluminal malignant and premalignant conditions. More recently, its application has also been expanded to solid tumors. However, its antitumor efficacy remains debatable and its acceptance still variable. Pre-clinical studies demonstrate that, in addition to the primary local cytotoxicity, PDT might induce secondary host immune responses, which may further enhance PDT's therapeutic effects on primary tumor as well as metastasis. Therefore, PDT-induced local and systemic antitumor immune response might play an important role in successful control of malignant diseases. Furthermore, PDT's antitumor efficacy might also be enhanced through an effective immunoadjuvant or immunomodulator. Our recent clinical data also indicate that improved clinical outcomes can be obtained by a combination of PDT and immunomodulation therapy for the treatment of pre-malignant skin diseases. For instance, the combination of topical ALA-PDT and Imiquimod is effective for the treatment of genital bowenoid papulosis. This presentation will also report our preliminary data in developing combination approaches of PDT and immunotherapy for actinic keratosis (AK), basal cell carcinomas (BCCs) and Bowen's disease.

Processes governing phytoplankton blooms in estuaries. II: The role of horizontal transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lucas, L.V.; Koseff, Jeffrey R.; Monismith, Stephen G.; Cloern, J.E.; Thompson, J.K.

1999-01-01

The development and distribution of phytoplankton blooms in estuaries are functions of both local conditions (i.e. the production-loss balance for a water column at a particular spatial location) and large-scale horizontal transport. In this study, the second of a 2-paper series, we use a depth-averaged hydrodynamic-biological model to identify transport-related mechanisms impacting phytoplankton biomass accumulation and distribution on a system level. We chose South San Francisco Bay as a model domain, since its combination of a deep channel surrounded by broad shoals is typical of drowned-river estuaries. Five general mechanisms involving interaction of horizontal transport with variability in local conditions are discussed. Residual (on the order of days to weeks) transport mechanisms affecting bloom development and location include residence time/export, import, and the role of deep channel regions as conduits for mass transport. Interactions occurring on tidal time scales, i.e. on the order of hours) include the phasing of lateral oscillatory tidal flow relative to temporal changes in local net phytoplankton growth rates, as well as lateral sloshing of shoal-derived biomass into deep channel regions during ebb and back into shallow regions during flood tide. Based on these results, we conclude that: (1) while local conditions control whether a bloom is possible, the combination of transport and spatial-temporal variability in local conditions determines if and where a bloom will actually occur; (2) tidal-time-scale physical-biological interactions provide important mechanisms for bloom development and evolution. As a result of both subtidal and tidal-time-scale transport processes, peak biomass may not be observed where local conditions are most favorable to phytoplankton production, and inherently unproductive areas may be regions of high biomass accumulation.

RESOLVING FINE SCALE IN AIR TOXICS MODELING AND THE IMPORTANCE OF ITS SUB-GRID VARIABILITY FOR EXPOSURE ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation explains the importance of the fine-scale features for air toxics exposure modeling. The paper presents a new approach to combine local-scale and regional model results for the National Air Toxic Assessment. The technique has been evaluated with a chemical tra...

Production regimes in four eastern boundary current systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, M. E.; Kearns, E. J.

2003-01-01

High productivity (maxima 3 g C m(sup -2)day(sup -1)) of the Eastern Boundary Currents (EBCs), i.e. the California, Peru-Humboldt, Canary and Benguela Currents, is driven by a combination of local forcing and large-scale circulation. The characteristics of the deep water brought to the surface by upwelling favorable winds depend on the large-scale circulation patterns. Here we use a new hydrographic and nutrient climatology together with satellite measurements ofthe wind vector, sea-surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll concentration, and primary production modeled from ocean color to quantify the meridional and seasonal patterns of upwelling dynamics and biological response. The unprecedented combination of data sets allows us to describe objectively the variability for small regions within each current and to characterize the governing factors for biological production. The temporal and spatial environmental variability was due in most regions to large-scale circulation, alone or in combination with offshore transport (local forcing). The observed meridional and seasonal patterns of biomass and primary production were most highlycorrelated to components representing large-scale circulation. The biomass sustained by a given nutrient concentration in the Atlantic EBCs was twice as large as that of the Pacific EBCs. This apparent greater efficiency may be due toavailability of iron, physical retention, or differences in planktonic community structure.

Comparison of particle swarm optimization and simulated annealing for locating additional boreholes considering combined variance minimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltani-Mohammadi, Saeed; Safa, Mohammad; Mokhtari, Hadi

2016-10-01

One of the most important stages in complementary exploration is optimal designing the additional drilling pattern or defining the optimum number and location of additional boreholes. Quite a lot research has been carried out in this regard in which for most of the proposed algorithms, kriging variance minimization as a criterion for uncertainty assessment is defined as objective function and the problem could be solved through optimization methods. Although kriging variance implementation is known to have many advantages in objective function definition, it is not sensitive to local variability. As a result, the only factors evaluated for locating the additional boreholes are initial data configuration and variogram model parameters and the effects of local variability are omitted. In this paper, with the goal of considering the local variability in boundaries uncertainty assessment, the application of combined variance is investigated to define the objective function. Thus in order to verify the applicability of the proposed objective function, it is used to locate the additional boreholes in Esfordi phosphate mine through the implementation of metaheuristic optimization methods such as simulated annealing and particle swarm optimization. Comparison of results from the proposed objective function and conventional methods indicates that the new changes imposed on the objective function has caused the algorithm output to be sensitive to the variations of grade, domain's boundaries and the thickness of mineralization domain. The comparison between the results of different optimization algorithms proved that for the presented case the application of particle swarm optimization is more appropriate than simulated annealing.

Reconstructing the gravitational field of the local Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desmond, Harry; Ferreira, Pedro G.; Lavaux, Guilhem; Jasche, Jens

2018-03-01

Tests of gravity at the galaxy scale are in their infancy. As a first step to systematically uncovering the gravitational significance of galaxies, we map three fundamental gravitational variables - the Newtonian potential, acceleration and curvature - over the galaxy environments of the local Universe to a distance of approximately 200 Mpc. Our method combines the contributions from galaxies in an all-sky redshift survey, haloes from an N-body simulation hosting low-luminosity objects, and linear and quasi-linear modes of the density field. We use the ranges of these variables to determine the extent to which galaxies expand the scope of generic tests of gravity and are capable of constraining specific classes of model for which they have special significance. Finally, we investigate the improvements afforded by upcoming galaxy surveys.

Predicting Local Dengue Transmission in Guangzhou, China, through the Influence of Imported Cases, Mosquito Density and Climate Variability

PubMed Central

Sang, Shaowei; Yin, Wenwu; Bi, Peng; Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Chenggang; Liu, Xiaobo; Chen, Bin; Yang, Weizhong; Liu, Qiyong

2014-01-01

Introduction Each year there are approximately 390 million dengue infections worldwide. Weather variables have a significant impact on the transmission of Dengue Fever (DF), a mosquito borne viral disease. DF in mainland China is characterized as an imported disease. Hence it is necessary to explore the roles of imported cases, mosquito density and climate variability in dengue transmission in China. The study was to identify the relationship between dengue occurrence and possible risk factors and to develop a predicting model for dengue’s control and prevention purpose. Methodology and Principal Findings Three traditional suburbs and one district with an international airport in Guangzhou city were selected as the study areas. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis were used to perform univariate analysis to identify possible risk factors, with relevant lagged effects, associated with local dengue cases. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to extract principal components and PCA score was used to represent the original variables to reduce multi-collinearity. Combining the univariate analysis and prior knowledge, time-series Poisson regression analysis was conducted to quantify the relationship between weather variables, Breteau Index, imported DF cases and the local dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by pseudo-R2, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and residual test. There were a total of 707 notified local DF cases from March 2006 to December 2012, with a seasonal distribution from August to November. There were a total of 65 notified imported DF cases from 20 countries, with forty-six cases (70.8%) imported from Southeast Asia. The model showed that local DF cases were positively associated with mosquito density, imported cases, temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure and minimum relative humidity, whilst being negatively associated with air pressure, with different time lags. Conclusions Imported DF cases and mosquito density play a critical role in local DF transmission, together with weather variables. The establishment of an early warning system, using existing surveillance datasets will help to control and prevent dengue in Guangzhou, China. PMID:25019967

Predicting local dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China, through the influence of imported cases, mosquito density and climate variability.

PubMed

Sang, Shaowei; Yin, Wenwu; Bi, Peng; Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Chenggang; Liu, Xiaobo; Chen, Bin; Yang, Weizhong; Liu, Qiyong

2014-01-01

Each year there are approximately 390 million dengue infections worldwide. Weather variables have a significant impact on the transmission of Dengue Fever (DF), a mosquito borne viral disease. DF in mainland China is characterized as an imported disease. Hence it is necessary to explore the roles of imported cases, mosquito density and climate variability in dengue transmission in China. The study was to identify the relationship between dengue occurrence and possible risk factors and to develop a predicting model for dengue's control and prevention purpose. Three traditional suburbs and one district with an international airport in Guangzhou city were selected as the study areas. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis were used to perform univariate analysis to identify possible risk factors, with relevant lagged effects, associated with local dengue cases. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to extract principal components and PCA score was used to represent the original variables to reduce multi-collinearity. Combining the univariate analysis and prior knowledge, time-series Poisson regression analysis was conducted to quantify the relationship between weather variables, Breteau Index, imported DF cases and the local dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by pseudo-R2, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and residual test. There were a total of 707 notified local DF cases from March 2006 to December 2012, with a seasonal distribution from August to November. There were a total of 65 notified imported DF cases from 20 countries, with forty-six cases (70.8%) imported from Southeast Asia. The model showed that local DF cases were positively associated with mosquito density, imported cases, temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure and minimum relative humidity, whilst being negatively associated with air pressure, with different time lags. Imported DF cases and mosquito density play a critical role in local DF transmission, together with weather variables. The establishment of an early warning system, using existing surveillance datasets will help to control and prevent dengue in Guangzhou, China.

Maximally Informative Statistics for Localization and Mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deans, Matthew C.

2001-01-01

This paper presents an algorithm for localization and mapping for a mobile robot using monocular vision and odometry as its means of sensing. The approach uses the Variable State Dimension filtering (VSDF) framework to combine aspects of Extended Kalman filtering and nonlinear batch optimization. This paper describes two primary improvements to the VSDF. The first is to use an interpolation scheme based on Gaussian quadrature to linearize measurements rather than relying on analytic Jacobians. The second is to replace the inverse covariance matrix in the VSDF with its Cholesky factor to improve the computational complexity. Results of applying the filter to the problem of localization and mapping with omnidirectional vision are presented.

Nonintegrable Schrodinger discrete breathers.

PubMed

Gómez-Gardeñes, J; Floría, L M; Peyrard, M; Bishop, A R

2004-12-01

In an extensive numerical investigation of nonintegrable translational motion of discrete breathers in nonlinear Schrödinger lattices, we have used a regularized Newton algorithm to continue these solutions from the limit of the integrable Ablowitz-Ladik lattice. These solutions are shown to be a superposition of a localized moving core and an excited extended state (background) to which the localized moving pulse is spatially asymptotic. The background is a linear combination of small amplitude nonlinear resonant plane waves and it plays an essential role in the energy balance governing the translational motion of the localized core. Perturbative collective variable theory predictions are critically analyzed in the light of the numerical results.

Tax-Exempt Hospitals' Investments in Community Health and Local Public Health Spending: Patterns and Relationships.

PubMed

Singh, Simone R; Young, Gary J

2017-12-01

To investigate whether tax-exempt hospitals' investments in community health are associated with patterns of governmental public health spending focusing specifically on the relationship between hospitals' community benefit expenditures and the spending patterns of local health departments (LHDs). We combined data on tax-exempt hospitals' community benefit spending with data on spending by the corresponding LHD that served the county in which a hospital was located. Data were available for 2 years, 2009 and 2013. Generalized linear regressions were estimated with indicators of hospital community benefit spending as the dependent variable and LHD spending as the key independent variable. Hospital community benefit spending was unrelated to how much local public health agencies spent, per capita, on public health in their communities. Patterns of local public health spending do not appear to impact the investments of tax-exempt hospitals in community health activities. Opportunities may, however, exist for a more active engagement between the public and private sector to ensure that the expenditures of all stakeholders involved in community health improvement efforts complement one another. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

PubMed

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

PubMed Central

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. PMID:25679957

[Discriminatory power of variable number on tandem repeats loci for genotyping Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains in China].

PubMed

Chen, H X; Cai, C; Liu, J Y; Zhang, Z G; Yuan, M; Jia, J N; Sun, Z G; Huang, H R; Gao, J M; Li, W M

2017-06-10

Objective: Using the standard genotype method, variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR), we constructed a VNTR database to cover all provinces and proposed a set of optimized VNTR loci combinations for each province, in order to improve the preventive and control programs on tuberculosis, in China. Methods: A total of 15 loci VNTR was used to analyze 4 116 Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains, isolated from national survey of Drug Resistant Tuberculosis, in 2007. Hunter-Gaston Index (HGI) was also used to analyze the discriminatory power of each VNTR site. A set combination of 12-VNTR, 10-VNTR, 8-VNTR and 5-VNTR was respectively constructed for each province, based on 1) epidemic characteristics of M. tuberculosis lineages in China, with high discriminatory power and genetic stability. Results: Through the completed 15 loci VNTR patterns of 3 966 strains under 96.36 % (3 966/4 116) coverage, we found seven high HGI loci (including QUB11b and MIRU26) as well as low stable loci (including QUB26, MIRU16, Mtub21 and QUB11b) in several areas. In all the 31 provinces, we found an optimization VNTR combination as 10-VNTR loci in Inner Mongolia, Chongqing and Heilongjiang, but with 8-VNTR combination shared in other provinces. Conclusions: It is necessary to not only use the VNTR database for tracing the source of infection and cluster of M. tuberculosis in the nation but also using the set of optimized VNTR combinations in monitoring those local epidemics and M. tuberculosis (genetics in local) population.

Constancy despite variability: Local and regional macrofaunal diversity in intertidal seagrass beds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyé, Aurélien; Legendre, Pierre; Grall, Jacques; Gauthier, Olivier

2017-12-01

The importance of seagrass habitat for the diversity of benthic fauna has been extensively studied worldwide. Most of the information available is, however, about α diversity while little consideration has been given to β diversity. To fill the knowledge gaps regarding the variability of epifaunal and infaunal seagrass assemblages at large spatial and temporal scales, we scrutinized an extensive dataset covering five years of monitoring of eight intertidal Zostera marina meadows around Brittany (France). High species richness arose at the regional scale from the combination of high local diversity of the meadows and substantial among-meadows β diversity. Epifauna and infauna appeared as distinct self-communities as they displayed different spatial and temporal patterns and varied in their responses to local hydrological conditions. Infauna had higher total β diversity than epifauna due to a tighter link to the great variability of local environmental conditions in the region. Both exhibited substantial variations in species composition and community structure with variations of dominant species that were accompanied by extensive change in numerous rare species. The dominant epifaunal species were all grazers. Changes in species composition were induced mostly by species replacement and rarely by richness differences between meadows. Indeed, species richness remained within a narrow range for all seagrass beds, suggesting a potential carrying capacity for species richness of the meadows. Overall, all meadows contributed equally to the regional turnover of seagrass macrofauna, emphasizing high variability and complementarity among beds at the regional scale. The implications of this substantial within-seagrass variability for the functioning of benthic ecosystems at broad scale and for conservation purposes in habitat mosaics warrant further investigations but our results clearly advocate taking into account within-habitat variation when evaluating the diversity of benthic habitats and the potential effect of habitat loss.

Bell's theorem and the problem of decidability between the views of Einstein and Bohr.

PubMed

Hess, K; Philipp, W

2001-12-04

Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen (EPR) have designed a gedanken experiment that suggested a theory that was more complete than quantum mechanics. The EPR design was later realized in various forms, with experimental results close to the quantum mechanical prediction. The experimental results by themselves have no bearing on the EPR claim that quantum mechanics must be incomplete nor on the existence of hidden parameters. However, the well known inequalities of Bell are based on the assumption that local hidden parameters exist and, when combined with conflicting experimental results, do appear to prove that local hidden parameters cannot exist. This fact leaves only instantaneous actions at a distance (called "spooky" by Einstein) to explain the experiments. The Bell inequalities are based on a mathematical model of the EPR experiments. They have no experimental confirmation, because they contradict the results of all EPR experiments. In addition to the assumption that hidden parameters exist, Bell tacitly makes a variety of other assumptions; for instance, he assumes that the hidden parameters are governed by a single probability measure independent of the analyzer settings. We argue that the mathematical model of Bell excludes a large set of local hidden variables and a large variety of probability densities. Our set of local hidden variables includes time-like correlated parameters and a generalized probability density. We prove that our extended space of local hidden variables does permit derivation of the quantum result and is consistent with all known experiments.

Structurally Dynamic Spin Market Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horváth, Denis; Kuscsik, Zoltán

The agent-based model of stock price dynamics on a directed evolving complex network is suggested and studied by direct simulation. The stationary regime is maintained as a result of the balance between the extremal dynamics, adaptivity of strategic variables and reconnection rules. The inherent structure of node agent "brain" is modeled by a recursive neural network with local and global inputs and feedback connections. For specific parametric combination the complex network displays small-world phenomenon combined with scale-free behavior. The identification of a local leader (network hub, agent whose strategies are frequently adapted by its neighbors) is carried out by repeated random walk process through network. The simulations show empirically relevant dynamics of price returns and volatility clustering. The additional emerging aspects of stylized market statistics are Zipfian distributions of fitness.

Satellite-based Assessment of Global Warm Cloud Properties Associated with Aerosols, Atmospheric Stability, and Diurnal Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chin, Mian; Kaufman, Yoram J.

2006-01-01

This study examines variability in marine low cloud properties derived from semi-global observations by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, as linked to the aerosol index (AI) and lower-tropospheric stability (LTS). AI is derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Terra MODIS) sensor and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transportation (GOCART) model, and is used to represent column-integrated aerosol concentrations. LTS is derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and represents the background thermodynamic environment in which the clouds form. Global statistics reveal that cloud droplet size tends to be smallest in polluted (high-AI) and strong inversion (high-LTS) environments. Statistical quantification shows that cloud droplet size is better correlated with AI than it is with LTS. Simultaneously, the cloud liquid water path (CLWP) tends to decrease as AI increases. This correlation does not support the hypothesis or assumption that constant or increased CLWP is associated with high aerosol concentrations. Global variability in corrected cloud albedo (CCA), the product of cloud optical depth and cloud fraction, is very well explained by LTS, while both AI and LTS are needed to explain local variability in CCA. Most of the local correlations between AI and cloud properties are similar to the results from the global statistics, while weak anomalous aerosol-cloud correlations appear locally in the regions where simultaneous high (low) AI and low (high) LTS compensate each other. Daytime diurnal cycles explain additional variability in cloud properties. CCA has the largest diurnal cycle in high-LTS regions. Cloud droplet size and CLWP have weak diurnal cycles that differ between clean and polluted environments. The combined results suggest that investigations of marine low cloud radiative forcing and its relationship to hypothesized aerosol indirect effects must consider the combined effects of aerosols, thermodynamics, and the diurnal cycle.

Comparative analysis of semantic localization accuracies between adult and pediatric DICOM CT images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Duncan; Pathak, Sayan D.; Criminisi, Antonio; White, Steve; Haynor, David; Chen, Oliver; Siddiqui, Khan

2012-02-01

Existing literature describes a variety of techniques for semantic annotation of DICOM CT images, i.e. the automatic detection and localization of anatomical structures. Semantic annotation facilitates enhanced image navigation, linkage of DICOM image content and non-image clinical data, content-based image retrieval, and image registration. A key challenge for semantic annotation algorithms is inter-patient variability. However, while the algorithms described in published literature have been shown to cope adequately with the variability in test sets comprising adult CT scans, the problem presented by the even greater variability in pediatric anatomy has received very little attention. Most existing semantic annotation algorithms can only be extended to work on scans of both adult and pediatric patients by adapting parameters heuristically in light of patient size. In contrast, our approach, which uses random regression forests ('RRF'), learns an implicit model of scale variation automatically using training data. In consequence, anatomical structures can be localized accurately in both adult and pediatric CT studies without the need for parameter adaptation or additional information about patient scale. We show how the RRF algorithm is able to learn scale invariance from a combined training set containing a mixture of pediatric and adult scans. Resulting localization accuracy for both adult and pediatric data remains comparable with that obtained using RRFs trained and tested using only adult data.

Reconstructing the gravitational field of the local Universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Desmond, Harry; Ferreira, Pedro G.; Lavaux, Guilhem

Tests of gravity at the galaxy scale are in their infancy. As a first step to systematically uncovering the gravitational significance of galaxies, we map three fundamental gravitational variables – the Newtonian potential, acceleration and curvature – over the galaxy environments of the local Universe to a distance of approximately 200 Mpc. Our method combines the contributions from galaxies in an all-sky redshift survey, haloes from an N-body simulation hosting low-luminosity objects, and linear and quasi-linear modes of the density field. We use the ranges of these variables to determine the extent to which galaxies expand the scope of genericmore » tests of gravity and are capable of constraining specific classes of model for which they have special significance. In conclusion, we investigate the improvements afforded by upcoming galaxy surveys.« less

Reconstructing the gravitational field of the local Universe

DOE PAGES

Desmond, Harry; Ferreira, Pedro G.; Lavaux, Guilhem; ...

2017-11-25

Tests of gravity at the galaxy scale are in their infancy. As a first step to systematically uncovering the gravitational significance of galaxies, we map three fundamental gravitational variables – the Newtonian potential, acceleration and curvature – over the galaxy environments of the local Universe to a distance of approximately 200 Mpc. Our method combines the contributions from galaxies in an all-sky redshift survey, haloes from an N-body simulation hosting low-luminosity objects, and linear and quasi-linear modes of the density field. We use the ranges of these variables to determine the extent to which galaxies expand the scope of genericmore » tests of gravity and are capable of constraining specific classes of model for which they have special significance. In conclusion, we investigate the improvements afforded by upcoming galaxy surveys.« less

Insight on invasions and resilience derived from spatiotemporal discontinuities of biomass at local and regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Criag R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the social and ecological consequences of species invasions is complicated by nonlinearities in processes, and differences in process and structure as scale is changed. Here we use discontinuity analyses to investigate nonlinear patterns in the distribution of biomass of an invasive nuisance species that could indicate scale-specific organization. We analyze biomass patterns in the flagellate Gonyostomum semen (Raphidophyta) in 75 boreal lakes during an 11-year period (1997-2007). With simulations using a unimodal null model and cluster analysis, we identified regional groupings of lakes based on their biomass patterns. We evaluated the variability of membership of individual lakes in regional biomass groups. Temporal trends in local and regional discontinuity patterns were analyzed using regressions and correlations with environmental variables that characterize nutrient conditions, acidity status, temperature variability, and water clarity. Regionally, there was a significant increase in the number of biomass groups over time, indicative of an increased number of scales at which algal biomass organizes across lakes. This increased complexity correlated with the invasion history of G. semen and broad-scale environmental change (recovery from acidification). Locally, no consistent patterns of lake membership to regional biomass groups were observed, and correlations with environmental variables were lake specific. The increased complexity of regional biomass patterns suggests that processes that act within or between scales reinforce the presence of G. semen and its potential to develop high-biomass blooms in boreal lakes. Emergent regional patterns combined with locally stochastic dynamics suggest a bleak future for managing G. semen, and more generally why invasive species can be ecologically successful.

Scan statistics with local vote for target detection in distributed system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Junhai; Wu, Qi

2017-12-01

Target detection has occupied a pivotal position in distributed system. Scan statistics, as one of the most efficient detection methods, has been applied to a variety of anomaly detection problems and significantly improves the probability of detection. However, scan statistics cannot achieve the expected performance when the noise intensity is strong, or the signal emitted by the target is weak. The local vote algorithm can also achieve higher target detection rate. After the local vote, the counting rule is always adopted for decision fusion. The counting rule does not use the information about the contiguity of sensors but takes all sensors' data into consideration, which makes the result undesirable. In this paper, we propose a scan statistics with local vote (SSLV) method. This method combines scan statistics with local vote decision. Before scan statistics, each sensor executes local vote decision according to the data of its neighbors and its own. By combining the advantages of both, our method can obtain higher detection rate in low signal-to-noise ratio environment than the scan statistics. After the local vote decision, the distribution of sensors which have detected the target becomes more intensive. To make full use of local vote decision, we introduce a variable-step-parameter for the SSLV. It significantly shortens the scan period especially when the target is absent. Analysis and simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance of our method.

Upscaling river biomass using dimensional analysis and hydrogeomorphic scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Power, Mary E.; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Hondzo, Miki; Dietrich, William E.

2007-12-01

We propose a methodology for upscaling biomass in a river using a combination of dimensional analysis and hydro-geomorphologic scaling laws. We first demonstrate the use of dimensional analysis for determining local scaling relationships between Nostoc biomass and hydrologic and geomorphic variables. We then combine these relationships with hydraulic geometry and streamflow scaling in order to upscale biomass from point to reach-averaged quantities. The methodology is demonstrated through an illustrative example using an 18 year dataset of seasonal monitoring of biomass of a stream cyanobacterium (Nostoc parmeloides) in a northern California river.

An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction.

PubMed

Yalcin, Semra; Leroux, Shawn James

2018-04-14

Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-1985 and 2001-2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bed Surface Adjustments to Spatially Variable Flow in Low Relative Submergence Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monsalve, A.; Yager, E. M.

2017-11-01

In mountainous rivers, large relatively immobile grains partly control the local and reach-averaged flow hydraulics and sediment fluxes. When the flow depth is similar to the size of these grains (low relative submergence), heterogeneous flow structures and plunging flow cause spatial distributions of bed surface elevations, textures, and sedimentation rates. To explore how the bed surface responds to these flow variations we conducted a set of experiments in which we varied the relative submergence of staggered hemispheres (simulated large boulders) between runs. All experiments had the same average sediment transport capacity, upstream sediment supply, and initial bed thickness and grain size distribution. We combined our laboratory measurements with a 3-D flow model to obtain the detailed flow structure around the hemispheres. The local bed shear stress field displayed substantial variability and controlled the bed load transport rates and direction in which sediment moved. The divergence in bed shear stress caused by the hemispheres promoted size-selective bed load deposition, which formed patches of coarse sediment upstream of the hemisphere. Sediment deposition caused a decrease in local bed shear stress, which combined with the coarser grain size, enhanced the stability of this patch. The region downstream of the hemispheres was largely controlled by a recirculation zone and had little to no change in grain size, bed elevation, and bed shear stress. The formation, development, and stability of sediment patches in mountain streams is controlled by the bed shear stress divergence and magnitude and direction of the local bed shear stress field.

Modeling of local sea level rise and its future projection under climate change using regional information through EOF analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naren, A.; Maity, Rajib

2017-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the manifestations of climate change and may cause a threat to the coastal regions. Estimates from global circulation models (GCMs) are either not available on coastal locations due to their coarse spatial resolution or not reliable since the mismatch between (interpolated) GCM estimates at coastal locations and actual observation over historical period is significantly different. We propose a semi-empirical framework to model the local sea level rise (SLR) using the possibly existing relationship between local SLR and regional atmospheric/oceanic variables. Selection of set of input variables mostly based on the literature bears the signature of both atmospheric and oceanic variables that possibly have an effect on SLR. The proposed approach offers a method to extract the combined information hidden in the regional fields of atmospheric/oceanic variables for a specific target coastal location. Generality of the approach ensures the inclusion of more variables in the set of inputs depending on the geographical location of any coastal station. For demonstration, 14 coastal locations along the Indian coast and islands are considered and a set of regional atmospheric and oceanic variables are considered. After development and validation of the model at each coastal location with the historical data, the model is further used for future projection of local SLR up to the year 2100 for three different future emission scenarios represented by representative concentration pathways (RCPs)—RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The maximum projected SLR is found to vary from 260.65 to 393.16 mm (RCP8.5) by the end of 2100 among the locations considered. Outcome of the proposed approach is expected to be useful in regional coastal management and in developing mitigation strategies in a changing climate.

Spatio-temporal variation of urban ultrafine particle number concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, Martina S.; Ducret-Stich, Regina E.; Foraster, Maria; Morelli, Xavier; Aguilera, Inmaculada; Basagaña, Xavier; Corradi, Elisabetta; Ineichen, Alex; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Rivera, Marcela; Slama, Rémy; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C.

2014-10-01

Methods are needed to characterize short-term exposure to ultrafine particle number concentrations (UFP) for epidemiological studies on the health effects of traffic-related UFP. Our aims were to assess season-specific spatial variation of short-term (20-min) UFP within the city of Basel, Switzerland, and to develop hybrid models for predicting short-term median and mean UFP levels on sidewalks. We collected measurements of UFP for periods of 20 min (MiniDiSC particle counter) and determined traffic volume along sidewalks at 60 locations across the city, during non-rush hours in three seasons. For each monitoring location, detailed spatial characteristics were locally recorded and potential predictor variables were derived from geographic information systems (GIS). We built multivariate regression models to predict local UFP, using concurrent UFP levels measured at a suburban background station, and combinations of meteorological, temporal, GIS and observed site characteristic variables. For a subset of sites, we assessed the relationship between UFP measured on the sidewalk and at the nearby residence (i.e., home outdoor exposure on e.g. balconies). The average median 20-min UFP levels at street and urban background sites were 14,700 ± 9100 particles cm-3 and 9900 ± 8600 particles cm-3, respectively, with the highest levels occurring in winter and the lowest in summer. The most important predictor for all models was the suburban background UFP concentration, explaining 50% and 38% of the variability of the median and mean, respectively. While the models with GIS-derived variables (R2 = 0.61) or observed site characteristics (R2 = 0.63) predicted median UFP levels equally well, mean UFP predictions using only site characteristic variables (R2 = 0.62) showed a better fit than models using only GIS variables (R2 = 0.55). The best model performance was obtained by using a combination of GIS-derived variables and locally observed site characteristics (median: R2 = 0.66; mean: R2 = 0.65). The 20-min UFP concentrations measured at the sidewalk were strongly related (R2 = 0.8) to the concurrent 20-min residential UFP levels nearby. Our results indicate that median UFP can be moderately predicted by means of a suburban background site and GIS-derived traffic and land use variables. In areas and regions where large-scale GIS data are not available, the spatial distribution of traffic-related UFP may be assessed reasonably well by collecting on-site short-term traffic and land-use data.

Another convex combination of product states for the separable Werner state

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Azuma, Hiroo; Ban, Masashi; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 1-1-9 Yaesu, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-0028

2006-03-15

In this paper, we write down the separable Werner state in a two-qubit system explicitly as a convex combination of product states, which is different from the convex combination obtained by Wootters' method. The Werner state in a two-qubit system has a single real parameter and varies from inseparable to separable according to the value of its parameter. We derive a hidden variable model that is induced by our decomposed form for the separable Werner state. From our explicit form of the convex combination of product states, we understand the following: The critical point of the parameter for separability ofmore » the Werner state comes from positivity of local density operators of the qubits.« less

A programing system for research and applications in structural optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, J.; Rogers, J. L., Jr.

1981-01-01

The flexibility necessary for such diverse utilizations is achieved by combining, in a modular manner, a state-of-the-art optimization program, a production level structural analysis program, and user supplied and problem dependent interface programs. Standard utility capabilities in modern computer operating systems are used to integrate these programs. This approach results in flexibility of the optimization procedure organization and versatility in the formulation of constraints and design variables. Features shown in numerical examples include: variability of structural layout and overall shape geometry, static strength and stiffness constraints, local buckling failure, and vibration constraints.

The use of sensory perception indicators for improving the characterization and modelling of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in soils.

PubMed

Roxo, Sónia; de Almeida, José António; Matias, Filipa Vieira; Mata-Lima, Herlander; Barbosa, Sofia

2016-03-01

This paper proposes a multistep approach for creating a 3D stochastic model of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in potentially polluted soils of a deactivated oil storage site by using chemical analysis results as primary or hard data and classes of sensory perception variables as secondary or soft data. First, the statistical relationship between the sensory perception variables (e.g. colour, odour and oil-water reaction) and TPH grade is analysed, after which the sensory perception variable exhibiting the highest correlation is selected (oil-water reaction in this case study). The probabilities of cells belonging to classes of oil-water reaction are then estimated for the entire soil volume using indicator kriging. Next, local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell are computed, combining the probabilities of belonging to a specific sensory perception indicator class and conditional to the simulated values of TPH grade. Finally, simulated images of TPH grade are generated by using the P-field simulation algorithm, utilising the local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell. The set of simulated TPH values allows several calculations to be performed, such as average values, local uncertainties and the probability of the TPH grade of the soil exceeding a specific threshold value.

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability of fine particles in an urban environment using combined fixed and mobile measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, R. C.; Pryor, S. C.

2014-06-01

Spatiotemporal variability of fine particle concentrations in Indianapolis, Indiana is quantified using a combination of high temporal resolution measurements at four fixed sites and mobile measurements with instruments attached to bicycles during transects of the city. Average urban PM2.5 concentrations are an average of ˜3.9-5.1 μg m-3 above the regional background. The influence of atmospheric conditions on ambient PM2.5 concentrations is evident with the greatest temporal variability occurring at periods of one day and 5-10 days corresponding to diurnal and synoptic meteorological processes, and lower mean wind speeds are associated with episodes of high PM2.5 concentrations. An anthropogenic signal is also evident. Higher PM2.5 concentrations coincide with morning rush hour, the frequencies of PM2.5 variability co-occur with those for carbon monoxide, and higher extreme concentrations were observed mid-week compared to weekends. On shorter time scales (

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glymour, Clark

2005-01-01

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Estimating plant available water content from remotely sensed evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Warren, G.; Doody, T.

2012-04-01

Plant available water content (PAWC) is an emergent soil property that is a critical variable in hydrological modelling. PAWC determines the active soil water storage and, in water-limited environments, is the main cause of different ecohydrological behaviour between (deep-rooted) perennial vegetation and (shallow-rooted) seasonal vegetation. Conventionally, PAWC is estimated for a combination of soil and vegetation from three variables: maximum rooting depth and the volumetric water content at field capacity and permanent wilting point, respectively. Without elaborate local field observation, large uncertainties in PAWC occur due to the assumptions associated with each of the three variables. We developed an alternative, observation-based method to estimate PAWC from precipitation observations and CSIRO MODIS Reflectance-based Evapotranspiration (CMRSET) estimates. Processing steps include (1) removing residual systematic bias in the CMRSET estimates, (2) making spatially appropriate assumptions about local water inputs and surface runoff losses, (3) using mean seasonal patterns in precipitation and CMRSET to estimate the seasonal pattern in soil water storage changes, (4) from these, calculating the mean seasonal storage range, which can be treated as an estimate of PAWC. We evaluate the resulting PAWC estimates against those determined in field experiments for 180 sites across Australia. We show that the method produces better estimates of PAWC than conventional techniques. In addition, the method provides detailed information with full continental coverage at moderate resolution (250 m) scale. The resulting maps can be used to identify likely groundwater dependent ecosystems and to derive PAWC distributions for each combination of soil and vegetation type.

Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tréguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Répécaud, Michel; Quéméner, Loic

2014-11-01

There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations.

Determination of riverbank erosion probability using Locally Weighted Logistic Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioannidou, Elena; Flori, Aikaterini; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Giannakis, Georgios; Vozinaki, Anthi Eirini K.; Karatzas, George P.; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Riverbank erosion is a natural geomorphologic process that affects the fluvial environment. The most important issue concerning riverbank erosion is the identification of the vulnerable locations. An alternative to the usual hydrodynamic models to predict vulnerable locations is to quantify the probability of erosion occurrence. This can be achieved by identifying the underlying relations between riverbank erosion and the geomorphological or hydrological variables that prevent or stimulate erosion. Thus, riverbank erosion can be determined by a regression model using independent variables that are considered to affect the erosion process. The impact of such variables may vary spatially, therefore, a non-stationary regression model is preferred instead of a stationary equivalent. Locally Weighted Regression (LWR) is proposed as a suitable choice. This method can be extended to predict the binary presence or absence of erosion based on a series of independent local variables by using the logistic regression model. It is referred to as Locally Weighted Logistic Regression (LWLR). Logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used for predicting the outcome of a categorical dependent variable (e.g. binary response) based on one or more predictor variables. The method can be combined with LWR to assign weights to local independent variables of the dependent one. LWR allows model parameters to vary over space in order to reflect spatial heterogeneity. The probabilities of the possible outcomes are modelled as a function of the independent variables using a logistic function. Logistic regression measures the relationship between a categorical dependent variable and, usually, one or several continuous independent variables by converting the dependent variable to probability scores. Then, a logistic regression is formed, which predicts success or failure of a given binary variable (e.g. erosion presence or absence) for any value of the independent variables. The erosion occurrence probability can be calculated in conjunction with the model deviance regarding the independent variables tested. The most straightforward measure for goodness of fit is the G statistic. It is a simple and effective way to study and evaluate the Logistic Regression model efficiency and the reliability of each independent variable. The developed statistical model is applied to the Koiliaris River Basin on the island of Crete, Greece. Two datasets of river bank slope, river cross-section width and indications of erosion were available for the analysis (12 and 8 locations). Two different types of spatial dependence functions, exponential and tricubic, were examined to determine the local spatial dependence of the independent variables at the measurement locations. The results show a significant improvement when the tricubic function is applied as the erosion probability is accurately predicted at all eight validation locations. Results for the model deviance show that cross-section width is more important than bank slope in the estimation of erosion probability along the Koiliaris riverbanks. The proposed statistical model is a useful tool that quantifies the erosion probability along the riverbanks and can be used to assist managing erosion and flooding events. Acknowledgements This work is part of an on-going THALES project (CYBERSENSORS - High Frequency Monitoring System for Integrated Water Resources Management of Rivers). The project has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: THALES. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.

Measuring the Impact of Environment on the Health of Large Cities.

PubMed

Stauber, Christine; Adams, Ellis A; Rothenberg, Richard; Dai, Dajun; Luo, Ruiyan; Weaver, Scott R; Prasad, Amit; Kano, Megumi; Heath, John

2018-06-09

The relative significance of indicators and determinants of health is important for local public health workers and planners. Of similar importance is a method for combining and evaluating such markers. We used a recently developed index, the Urban Health Index (UHI), to examine the impact of environmental variables on the overall health of cities. We used the UHI to rank 57 of the world’s largest cities (based on population size) in low- and middle-income countries. We examined nine variables in various combinations that were available from the Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in these countries. When arranged in ascending order, the distribution of UHIs follows the previously described pattern of gradual linear increase, with departures at each tail. The rank order of cities did not change materially with the omission of variables about women’s health knowledge or childhood vaccinations. Omission of environmental variables (a central water supply piped into homes, improved sanitation, and indoor solid fuel use) altered the rank order considerably. The data suggest that environmental indicators, measures of key household level risk to health, may play a vital role in the overall health of urban communities.

Topographic effects on infrasound propagation.

PubMed

McKenna, Mihan H; Gibson, Robert G; Walker, Bob E; McKenna, Jason; Winslow, Nathan W; Kofford, Aaron S

2012-01-01

Infrasound data were collected using portable arrays in a region of variable terrain elevation to quantify the effects of topography on observed signal amplitude and waveform features at distances less than 25 km from partially contained explosive sources during the Frozen Rock Experiment (FRE) in 2006. Observed infrasound signals varied in amplitude and waveform complexity, indicating propagation effects that are due in part to repeated local maxima and minima in the topography on the scale of the dominant wavelengths of the observed data. Numerical simulations using an empirically derived pressure source function combining published FRE accelerometer data and historical data from Project ESSEX, a time-domain parabolic equation model that accounted for local terrain elevation through terrain-masking, and local meteorological atmospheric profiles were able to explain some but not all of the observed signal features. Specifically, the simulations matched the timing of the observed infrasound signals but underestimated the waveform amplitude observed behind terrain features, suggesting complex scattering and absorption of energy associated with variable topography influences infrasonic energy more than previously observed. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America.

Linkage localization of X-linked Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bergoffen, J.; Trofatter, J.; Haines, J.L.

1993-02-01

Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMT), also known as hereditary motor and sensory neuropathy, is a heterogeneous group of slowly progressive, degenerative disorders of peripheral nerve. X-linked CMT (CMTX) (McKusick 302800), a subdivision of type I, or demyelinating, CMT is an X-linked dominant condition with variable penetrance. Previous linkage analysis using RFLPs demonstrated linkage to markers on the proximal long and short arms of the X chromosome, with the more likely localization on the proximal long arm of the X chromosome. Available variable simple-sequence repeats (VSSRs) broaden the possibilities for linkage analysis. This paper presents new linkage data and recombination analysis derived frommore » work with four VSSR markers - AR, PGKP1, DXS453, and DXYS1X - in addition to analysis using RFLP markers described elsewhere. These studies localize the CMTX gene to the proximal Xq segment between PGKP1 (Xq11.2-12) and DXS72 (Xq21.1), with a combined maximum multipoint lod score of 15.3 at DXS453 ([theta] = 0). 32 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Adaptive data-driven models for estimating carbon fluxes in the Northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, B.K.; Fosnight, E.A.; Gilmanov, T.G.; Frank, A.B.; Morgan, J.A.; Haferkamp, Marshall R.; Meyers, T.P.

2007-01-01

Rangeland carbon fluxes are highly variable in both space and time. Given the expansive areas of rangelands, how rangelands respond to climatic variation, management, and soil potential is important to understanding carbon dynamics. Rangeland carbon fluxes associated with Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) were measured from multiple year data sets at five flux tower locations in the Northern Great Plains. These flux tower measurements were combined with 1-km2 spatial data sets of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, seasonal NDVI metrics, and soil characteristics. Flux tower measurements were used to train and select variables for a rule-based piece-wise regression model. The accuracy and stability of the model were assessed through random cross-validation and cross-validation by site and year. Estimates of NEE were produced for each 10-day period during each growing season from 1998 to 2001. Growing season carbon flux estimates were combined with winter flux estimates to derive and map annual estimates of NEE. The rule-based piece-wise regression model is a dynamic, adaptive model that captures the relationships of the spatial data to NEE as conditions evolve throughout the growing season. The carbon dynamics in the Northern Great Plains proved to be in near equilibrium, serving as a small carbon sink in 1999 and as a small carbon source in 1998, 2000, and 2001. Patterns of carbon sinks and sources are very complex, with the carbon dynamics tilting toward sources in the drier west and toward sinks in the east and near the mountains in the extreme west. Significant local variability exists, which initial investigations suggest are likely related to local climate variability, soil properties, and management.

Non-operative management of rectal cancer: understanding tumor biology.

PubMed

Wei, Iris H; Garcia-Aguilar, Julio

2018-05-24

The management of locally advanced rectal cancer involves a combination of chemotherapy, chemoradiation, and surgical resection to provide excellent local tumor control and overall survival. However, aspects of this multimodality approach are associated with significant morbidity and longterm sequelae. In addition, there is growing evidence that patients with a clinical complete response to chemotherapy and chemoradiation treatments may be safely offered initial non-operative management in a rigorous surveillance program. Developing effective methods, such as molecular biomarkers, to predict a patient's response to therapies are therefore needed to help guide personalized treatment strategies. The treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer focuses on a multimodality approach of systemic chemotherapy, radiation, and total mesorectal excision to maximize oncologic outcomes. While combined modality treatment for LARC results in excellent local tumor control and patient survival, the treatments are associated with significant morbidity and long-term functional complications that can impair quality of life. In addition, the tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy is quite variable.2 Weighed against the morbidity and significant sequelae of rectal resection, recognizing how to best optimize nonoperative strategies without compromising oncologic outcomes is critical to our understanding and treatment of this disease.

An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

2016-06-01

The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure. The CRI-LS provides a set of maps that allow identifying areas within the coastal hazard zone with relative higher risk from climate-related hazards. The method can be used to support coastal planning and management process in selecting the most suitable adaptation measures.

Quantifying human disturbance in watersheds: Variable selection and performance of a GIS-based disturbance index for predicting the biological condition of perennial streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falcone, James A.; Carlisle, Daren M.; Weber, Lisa C.

2010-01-01

Characterizing the relative severity of human disturbance in watersheds is often part of stream assessments and is frequently done with the aid of Geographic Information System (GIS)-derived data. However, the choice of variables and how they are used to quantify disturbance are often subjective. In this study, we developed a number of disturbance indices by testing sets of variables, scoring methods, and weightings of 33 potential disturbance factors derived from readily available GIS data. The indices were calibrated using 770 watersheds located in the western United States for which the severity of disturbance had previously been classified from detailed local data by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). The indices were calibrated by determining which variable or variable combinations and aggregation method best differentiated between least- and most-disturbed sites. Indices composed of several variables performed better than any individual variable, and best results came from a threshold method of scoring using six uncorrelated variables: housing unit density, road density, pesticide application, dam storage, land cover along a mainstem buffer, and distance to nearest canal/pipeline. The final index was validated with 192 withheld watersheds and correctly classified about two-thirds (68%) of least- and most-disturbed sites. These results provide information about the potential for using a disturbance index as a screening tool for a priori ranking of watersheds at a regional/national scale, and which landscape variables and methods of combination may be most helpful in doing so.

Double symbolic joint entropy in nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Wenpo; Wang, Jun

2017-07-01

Symbolizations, the base of symbolic dynamic analysis, are classified as global static and local dynamic approaches which are combined by joint entropy in our works for nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis. Two global static methods, symbolic transformations of Wessel N. symbolic entropy and base-scale entropy, and two local ones, namely symbolizations of permutation and differential entropy, constitute four double symbolic joint entropies that have accurate complexity detections in chaotic models, logistic and Henon map series. In nonlinear dynamical analysis of different kinds of heart rate variability, heartbeats of healthy young have higher complexity than those of the healthy elderly, and congestive heart failure (CHF) patients are lowest in heartbeats' joint entropy values. Each individual symbolic entropy is improved by double symbolic joint entropy among which the combination of base-scale and differential symbolizations have best complexity analysis. Test results prove that double symbolic joint entropy is feasible in nonlinear dynamic complexity analysis.

Nonparametric regression applied to quantitative structure-activity relationships

PubMed

Constans; Hirst

2000-03-01

Several nonparametric regressors have been applied to modeling quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) data. The simplest regressor, the Nadaraya-Watson, was assessed in a genuine multivariate setting. Other regressors, the local linear and the shifted Nadaraya-Watson, were implemented within additive models--a computationally more expedient approach, better suited for low-density designs. Performances were benchmarked against the nonlinear method of smoothing splines. A linear reference point was provided by multilinear regression (MLR). Variable selection was explored using systematic combinations of different variables and combinations of principal components. For the data set examined, 47 inhibitors of dopamine beta-hydroxylase, the additive nonparametric regressors have greater predictive accuracy (as measured by the mean absolute error of the predictions or the Pearson correlation in cross-validation trails) than MLR. The use of principal components did not improve the performance of the nonparametric regressors over use of the original descriptors, since the original descriptors are not strongly correlated. It remains to be seen if the nonparametric regressors can be successfully coupled with better variable selection and dimensionality reduction in the context of high-dimensional QSARs.

Population-environment drivers of H5N1 avian influenza molecular change in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Carrel, Margaret A.; Emch, Michael; Nguyen, Tung; Jobe, R. Todd; Wan, Xiu-Feng

2013-01-01

This study identifies population and environment drivers of genetic change in H5N1 avian influenza viruses (AIV) in Vietnam using a landscape genetics approach. While prior work has examined how combinations of local-level environmental variables influence H5N1 occurrence, this research expands the analysis to the complex genetic characteristics of H5N1 viruses. A dataset of 125 highly pathogenic H5N1 AIV isolated in Vietnam from 2003–2007 is used to explore which population and environment variables are correlated with increased genetic change among viruses. Results from non-parametric multidimensional scaling and regression analyses indicate that variables relating to both the environmental and social ecology of humans and birds in Vietnam interact to affect the genetic character of viruses. These findings suggest that it is a combination of suitable environments for species mixing, the presence of high numbers of potential hosts, and in particular the temporal characteristics of viral occurrence, that drive genetic change among H5N1 AIV in Vietnam. PMID:22652510

Population-environment drivers of H5N1 avian influenza molecular change in Vietnam.

PubMed

Carrel, Margaret A; Emch, Michael; Nguyen, Tung; Todd Jobe, R; Wan, Xiu-Feng

2012-09-01

This study identifies population and environment drivers of genetic change in H5N1 avian influenza viruses (AIV) in Vietnam using a landscape genetics approach. While prior work has examined how combinations of local-level environmental variables influence H5N1 occurrence, this research expands the analysis to the complex genetic characteristics of H5N1 viruses. A dataset of 125 highly pathogenic H5N1 AIV isolated in Vietnam from 2003 to 2007 is used to explore which population and environment variables are correlated with increased genetic change among viruses. Results from non-parametric multidimensional scaling and regression analyses indicate that variables relating to both the environmental and social ecology of humans and birds in Vietnam interact to affect the genetic character of viruses. These findings suggest that it is a combination of suitable environments for species mixing, the presence of high numbers of potential hosts, and in particular the temporal characteristics of viral occurrence, that drive genetic change among H5N1 AIV in Vietnam. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Gradients of Coral Exposure to Environmental Stresses and Implications for Local Management

PubMed Central

Maina, Joseph; McClanahan, Tim R.; Venus, Valentijn; Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu; Madin, Joshua

2011-01-01

Background The decline of coral reefs globally underscores the need for a spatial assessment of their exposure to multiple environmental stressors to estimate vulnerability and evaluate potential counter-measures. Methodology/Principal Findings This study combined global spatial gradients of coral exposure to radiation stress factors (temperature, UV light and doldrums), stress-reinforcing factors (sedimentation and eutrophication), and stress-reducing factors (temperature variability and tidal amplitude) to produce a global map of coral exposure and identify areas where exposure depends on factors that can be locally managed. A systems analytical approach was used to define interactions between radiation stress variables, stress reinforcing variables and stress reducing variables. Fuzzy logic and spatial ordinations were employed to quantify coral exposure to these stressors. Globally, corals are exposed to radiation and reinforcing stress, albeit with high spatial variability within regions. Based on ordination of exposure grades, regions group into two clusters. The first cluster was composed of severely exposed regions with high radiation and low reducing stress scores (South East Asia, Micronesia, Eastern Pacific and the central Indian Ocean) or alternatively high reinforcing stress scores (the Middle East and the Western Australia). The second cluster was composed of moderately to highly exposed regions with moderate to high scores in both radiation and reducing factors (Caribbean, Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Central Pacific, Polynesia and the western Indian Ocean) where the GBR was strongly associated with reinforcing stress. Conclusions/Significance Despite radiation stress being the most dominant stressor, the exposure of coral reefs could be reduced by locally managing chronic human impacts that act to reinforce radiation stress. Future research and management efforts should focus on incorporating the factors that mitigate the effect of coral stressors until long-term carbon reductions are achieved through global negotiations. PMID:21860667

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches

PubMed Central

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D.; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability. PMID:27560980

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches.

PubMed

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability.

Fatigue crack growth with single overload - Measurement and modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, D. L.; Hudak, S. J., Jr.; Dexter, R. J.

1987-01-01

This paper compares experiments with an analytical model of fatigue crack growth under variable amplitude. The stereoimaging technique was used to measure displacements near the tips of fatigue cracks undergoing simple variations in load amplitude-single overloads and overload/underload combinations. Measured displacements were used to compute strains, and stresses were determined from the strains. Local values of crack driving force (Delta-K effective) were determined using both locally measured opening loads and crack tip opening displacements. Experimental results were compared with simulations made for the same load variation conditions using Newman's FAST-2 model. Residual stresses caused by overloads, crack opening loads, and growth retardation periods were compared.

Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

2015-01-01

Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua, an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

Survey on the Performance of Source Localization Algorithms.

PubMed

Fresno, José Manuel; Robles, Guillermo; Martínez-Tarifa, Juan Manuel; Stewart, Brian G

2017-11-18

The localization of emitters using an array of sensors or antennas is a prevalent issue approached in several applications. There exist different techniques for source localization, which can be classified into multilateration, received signal strength (RSS) and proximity methods. The performance of multilateration techniques relies on measured time variables: the time of flight (ToF) of the emission from the emitter to the sensor, the time differences of arrival (TDoA) of the emission between sensors and the pseudo-time of flight (pToF) of the emission to the sensors. The multilateration algorithms presented and compared in this paper can be classified as iterative and non-iterative methods. Both standard least squares (SLS) and hyperbolic least squares (HLS) are iterative and based on the Newton-Raphson technique to solve the non-linear equation system. The metaheuristic technique particle swarm optimization (PSO) used for source localisation is also studied. This optimization technique estimates the source position as the optimum of an objective function based on HLS and is also iterative in nature. Three non-iterative algorithms, namely the hyperbolic positioning algorithms (HPA), the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and Bancroft algorithm, are also presented. A non-iterative combined algorithm, MLE-HLS, based on MLE and HLS, is further proposed in this paper. The performance of all algorithms is analysed and compared in terms of accuracy in the localization of the position of the emitter and in terms of computational time. The analysis is also undertaken with three different sensor layouts since the positions of the sensors affect the localization; several source positions are also evaluated to make the comparison more robust. The analysis is carried out using theoretical time differences, as well as including errors due to the effect of digital sampling of the time variables. It is shown that the most balanced algorithm, yielding better results than the other algorithms in terms of accuracy and short computational time, is the combined MLE-HLS algorithm.

Survey on the Performance of Source Localization Algorithms

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The localization of emitters using an array of sensors or antennas is a prevalent issue approached in several applications. There exist different techniques for source localization, which can be classified into multilateration, received signal strength (RSS) and proximity methods. The performance of multilateration techniques relies on measured time variables: the time of flight (ToF) of the emission from the emitter to the sensor, the time differences of arrival (TDoA) of the emission between sensors and the pseudo-time of flight (pToF) of the emission to the sensors. The multilateration algorithms presented and compared in this paper can be classified as iterative and non-iterative methods. Both standard least squares (SLS) and hyperbolic least squares (HLS) are iterative and based on the Newton–Raphson technique to solve the non-linear equation system. The metaheuristic technique particle swarm optimization (PSO) used for source localisation is also studied. This optimization technique estimates the source position as the optimum of an objective function based on HLS and is also iterative in nature. Three non-iterative algorithms, namely the hyperbolic positioning algorithms (HPA), the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and Bancroft algorithm, are also presented. A non-iterative combined algorithm, MLE-HLS, based on MLE and HLS, is further proposed in this paper. The performance of all algorithms is analysed and compared in terms of accuracy in the localization of the position of the emitter and in terms of computational time. The analysis is also undertaken with three different sensor layouts since the positions of the sensors affect the localization; several source positions are also evaluated to make the comparison more robust. The analysis is carried out using theoretical time differences, as well as including errors due to the effect of digital sampling of the time variables. It is shown that the most balanced algorithm, yielding better results than the other algorithms in terms of accuracy and short computational time, is the combined MLE-HLS algorithm. PMID:29156565

Influence of spatial resolution on precipitation simulations for the central Andes Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachte, Katja; Bendix, Jörg

2013-04-01

The climate of South America is highly influenced by the north-south oriented Andes Mountains. Their complex structure causes modifications of large-scale atmospheric circulations resulting in various mesoscale phenomena as well as a high variability in the local conditions. Due to their height and length the terrain generates distinctly climate conditions between the western and the eastern slopes. While in the tropical regions along the western flanks the conditions are cold and arid, the eastern slopes are dominated by warm-moist and rainy air coming from the Amazon basin. Below 35° S the situation reverses with rather semiarid conditions in the eastern part and temperate rainy climate along southern Chile. Generally, global circulation models (GCMs) describe the state of the global climate and its changes, but are disabled to capture regional or even local features due to their coarse resolution. This is particularly true in heterogeneous regions such as the Andes Mountains, where local driving features, e. g. local circulation systems, highly varies on small scales and thus, lead to a high variability of rainfall distributions. An appropriate technique to overcome this problem and to gain regional and local scale rainfall information is the dynamical downscaling of the global data using a regional climate model (RCM). The poster presents results of the evaluation of the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over South America with special focus on the central Andes Mountains of Ecuador. A sensitivity study regarding the cumulus parametrization, microphysics, boundary layer processes and the radiation budget is conducted. With 17 simulations consisting of 16 parametrization scheme combinations and 1 default run a suitable model set-up for climate research in this region is supposed to be evaluated. The simulations were conducted in a two-way nested mode i) to examine the best physics scheme combination for the target and ii) to analyze the impact of spatial resolution and thus, the representation of the terrain on the result.

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, Brady J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J.; Sauer, John R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage.

PubMed

Mattsson, Brady J; Zipkin, Elise F; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J; Sauer, John R; Royle, J Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

Explaining Local-Scale Species Distributions: Relative Contributions of Spatial Autocorrelation and Landscape Heterogeneity for an Avian Assemblage

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Brady J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Blank, Peter J.; Sauer, John R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition. PMID:23393564

The determinants of bond angle variability in protein/peptide backbones: A comprehensive statistical/quantum mechanics analysis.

PubMed

Improta, Roberto; Vitagliano, Luigi; Esposito, Luciana

2015-11-01

The elucidation of the mutual influence between peptide bond geometry and local conformation has important implications for protein structure refinement, validation, and prediction. To gain insights into the structural determinants and the energetic contributions associated with protein/peptide backbone plasticity, we here report an extensive analysis of the variability of the peptide bond angles by combining statistical analyses of protein structures and quantum mechanics calculations on small model peptide systems. Our analyses demonstrate that all the backbone bond angles strongly depend on the peptide conformation and unveil the existence of regular trends as function of ψ and/or φ. The excellent agreement of the quantum mechanics calculations with the statistical surveys of protein structures validates the computational scheme here employed and demonstrates that the valence geometry of protein/peptide backbone is primarily dictated by local interactions. Notably, for the first time we show that the position of the H(α) hydrogen atom, which is an important parameter in NMR structural studies, is also dependent on the local conformation. Most of the trends observed may be satisfactorily explained by invoking steric repulsive interactions; in some specific cases the valence bond variability is also influenced by hydrogen-bond like interactions. Moreover, we can provide a reliable estimate of the energies involved in the interplay between geometry and conformations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The biogeochemical heterogeneity of tropical forests.

PubMed

Townsend, Alan R; Asner, Gregory P; Cleveland, Cory C

2008-08-01

Tropical forests are renowned for their biological diversity, but also harbor variable combinations of soil age, chemistry and susceptibility to erosion or tectonic uplift. Here we contend that the combined effects of this biotic and abiotic diversity promote exceptional biogeochemical heterogeneity at multiple scales. At local levels, high plant diversity creates variation in chemical and structural traits that affect plant production, decomposition and nutrient cycling. At regional levels, myriad combinations of soil age, soil chemistry and landscape dynamics create variation and uncertainty in limiting nutrients that do not exist at higher latitudes. The effects of such heterogeneity are not well captured in large-scale estimates of tropical ecosystem function, but we suggest new developments in remote sensing can help bridge the gap.

Millennial-scale variability in the local radiocarbon reservoir age of south Florida during the Holocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toth, Lauren T.; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Ashe, Erica; Richey, Julie N.

2017-01-01

A growing body of research suggests that the marine environments of south Florida provide a critical link between the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic. Changes in the characteristics of water masses off south Florida may therefore have important implications for our understanding of climatic and oceanographic variability over a broad spatial scale; however, the sources of variability within this oceanic corridor remain poorly understood. Measurements of ΔR, the local offset of the radiocarbon reservoir age, from shallow-water marine environments can serve as a powerful tracer of water-mass sources that can be used to reconstruct variability in local-to regional-scale oceanography and hydrology. We combined radiocarbon and U-series measurements of Holocene-aged corals from the shallow-water environments of the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) with robust statistical modeling to quantify the millennial-scale variability in ΔR at locations with (“nearshore”) and without (“open ocean”) substantial terrestrial influence. Our reconstructions demonstrate that there was significant spatial and temporal variability in ΔR on the FKRT during the Holocene. Whereas ΔR was similar throughout the region after ∼4000 years ago, nearshore ΔR was significantly higher than in the open ocean during the middle Holocene. We suggest that the elevated nearshore ΔR from ∼8000 to 5000 years ago was most likely the result of greater groundwater influence associated with lower sea level at this time. In the open ocean, which would have been isolated from the influence of groundwater, ΔR was lowest ∼7000 years ago, and was highest ∼3000 years ago. We evaluated our open-ocean model of ΔR variability against records of local-to regional-scale oceanography and conclude that local upwelling was not a significant driver of open-ocean radiocarbon variability in this region. Instead, the millennial-scale trends in open-ocean ΔR were more likely a result of broader-scale changes in western Atlantic circulation associated with an increase in the supply of equatorial South Atlantic water to the Caribbean and shifts in the character of South Atlantic waters resulting from variation in the intensity of upwelling off the southwest coast of Africa. Because accurate estimates of ΔR are critical to precise calibrations of radiocarbon dates from marine samples, we also developed models of nearshore and open-ocean ΔR versus conventional 14C ages that can be used for regional radiocarbon calibrations for the Holocene. Our study provides new insights into the patterns and drivers of oceanographic and hydrologic variability in the Straits of Florida and highlights the value of the paleoceanographic records from south Florida to our understanding of Holocene changes in climate and ocean circulation throughout the Atlantic.

Event-Ready Bell Test Using Entangled Atoms Simultaneously Closing Detection and Locality Loopholes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenfeld, Wenjamin; Burchardt, Daniel; Garthoff, Robert; Redeker, Kai; Ortegel, Norbert; Rau, Markus; Weinfurter, Harald

2017-07-01

An experimental test of Bell's inequality allows ruling out any local-realistic description of nature by measuring correlations between distant systems. While such tests are conceptually simple, there are strict requirements concerning the detection efficiency of the involved measurements, as well as the enforcement of spacelike separation between the measurement events. Only very recently could both loopholes be closed simultaneously. Here we present a statistically significant, event-ready Bell test based on combining heralded entanglement of atoms separated by 398 m with fast and efficient measurements of the atomic spin states closing essential loopholes. We obtain a violation with S =2.221 ±0.033 (compared to the maximal value of 2 achievable with models based on local hidden variables) which allows us to refute the hypothesis of local realism with a significance level P <2.57 ×10-9.

Prostate cancer: role of pretreatment multiparametric 3-T MRI in predicting biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Park, Jung Jae; Kim, Chan Kyo; Park, Sung Yoon; Park, Byung Kwan; Lee, Hyun Moo; Cho, Seong Whi

2014-05-01

The purpose of this study is to retrospectively investigate whether pretreatment multiparametric MRI findings can predict biochemical recurrence in patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) for localized prostate cancer. In this study, 282 patients with biopsy-proven prostate cancer who received RP underwent pretreatment MRI using a phased-array coil at 3 T, including T2-weighted imaging (T2WI), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI). MRI variables included apparent tumor presence on combined imaging sequences, extracapsular extension, and tumor size on DWI or DCE-MRI. Clinical variables included baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, clinical stage, and Gleason score at biopsy. The relationship between clinical and imaging variables and biochemical recurrence was evaluated using Cox regression analysis. After a median follow-up of 26 months, biochemical recurrence developed in 61 patients (22%). Univariate analysis revealed that all the imaging and clinical variables were significantly associated with biochemical recurrence (p < 0.01). On multivariate analysis, however, baseline PSA level (p = 0.002), Gleason score at biopsy (p = 0.024), and apparent tumor presence on combined T2WI, DWI, and DCE-MRI (p = 0.047) were the only significant independent predictors of biochemical recurrence. Of the independent predictors, apparent tumor presence on combined T2WI, DWI, and DCE-MRI showed the highest hazard ratio (2.38) compared with baseline PSA level (hazard ratio, 1.05) and Gleason score at biopsy (hazard ratio, 1.34). The apparent tumor presence on combined T2WI, DWI, and DCE-MRI of pretreatment MRI is an independent predictor of biochemical recurrence after RP. This finding may be used to construct a predictive model for biochemical recurrence after surgery.

Phylogenetic turnover along local environmental gradients in tropical forest communities.

PubMed

Baldeck, C A; Kembel, S W; Harms, K E; Yavitt, J B; John, R; Turner, B L; Madawala, S; Gunatilleke, N; Gunatilleke, S; Bunyavejchewin, S; Kiratiprayoon, S; Yaacob, A; Supardi, M N N; Valencia, R; Navarrete, H; Davies, S J; Chuyong, G B; Kenfack, D; Thomas, D W; Dalling, J W

2016-10-01

While the importance of local-scale habitat niches in shaping tree species turnover along environmental gradients in tropical forests is well appreciated, relatively little is known about the influence of phylogenetic signal in species' habitat niches in shaping local community structure. We used detailed maps of the soil resource and topographic variation within eight 24-50 ha tropical forest plots combined with species phylogenies created from the APG III phylogeny to examine how phylogenetic beta diversity (indicating the degree of phylogenetic similarity of two communities) was related to environmental gradients within tropical tree communities. Using distance-based redundancy analysis we found that phylogenetic beta diversity, expressed as either nearest neighbor distance or mean pairwise distance, was significantly related to both soil and topographic variation in all study sites. In general, more phylogenetic beta diversity within a forest plot was explained by environmental variables this was expressed as nearest neighbor distance versus mean pairwise distance (3.0-10.3 % and 0.4-8.8 % of variation explained among plots, respectively), and more variation was explained by soil resource variables than topographic variables using either phylogenetic beta diversity metric. We also found that patterns of phylogenetic beta diversity expressed as nearest neighbor distance were consistent with previously observed patterns of niche similarity among congeneric species pairs in these plots. These results indicate the importance of phylogenetic signal in local habitat niches in shaping the phylogenetic structure of tropical tree communities, especially at the level of close phylogenetic neighbors, where similarity in habitat niches is most strongly preserved.

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar to capture spatial variability of local land-based subsidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekaert, D. P.; Hamlington, B.; Buzzanga, B. A.; Jones, C. E.

2017-12-01

The rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon which to base planning efforts. Current day land-based subsidence rates derived from GPS often lack the spatial resolution to capture the local spatial variability needed when assessing the impact of relative sea-level rise. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is an attractive technique that has the potential to provide a measurement every 20-30m when good signal coherence is maintained. In practice, coastal regions are challenging for InSAR due to variable vegetation cover and soil moisture, which can be in part mitigated by applying advanced time-series InSAR techniques. After applying time-series InSAR, derived rates need to be combined with GPS to tie relative subsidence rates into a geodetic reference frame. Given the need to make projections of relative sea-level rise it is particularly important to propagate all uncertainties during the different processing stages. Here we provide results from ALOS and Sentinel-1 over Hampton Roads area in the Chesapeake Bay region, which is experiencing one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. Although the current derived subsidence rates have large uncertainties, it is expected that this will improve with the decadal observations from Sentinel-1.

GalaxyTBM: template-based modeling by building a reliable core and refining unreliable local regions.

PubMed

Ko, Junsu; Park, Hahnbeom; Seok, Chaok

2012-08-10

Protein structures can be reliably predicted by template-based modeling (TBM) when experimental structures of homologous proteins are available. However, it is challenging to obtain structures more accurate than the single best templates by either combining information from multiple templates or by modeling regions that vary among templates or are not covered by any templates. We introduce GalaxyTBM, a new TBM method in which the more reliable core region is modeled first from multiple templates and less reliable, variable local regions, such as loops or termini, are then detected and re-modeled by an ab initio method. This TBM method is based on "Seok-server," which was tested in CASP9 and assessed to be amongst the top TBM servers. The accuracy of the initial core modeling is enhanced by focusing on more conserved regions in the multiple-template selection and multiple sequence alignment stages. Additional improvement is achieved by ab initio modeling of up to 3 unreliable local regions in the fixed framework of the core structure. Overall, GalaxyTBM reproduced the performance of Seok-server, with GalaxyTBM and Seok-server resulting in average GDT-TS of 68.1 and 68.4, respectively, when tested on 68 single-domain CASP9 TBM targets. For application to multi-domain proteins, GalaxyTBM must be combined with domain-splitting methods. Application of GalaxyTBM to CASP9 targets demonstrates that accurate protein structure prediction is possible by use of a multiple-template-based approach, and ab initio modeling of variable regions can further enhance the model quality.

LLNA variability: An essential ingredient for a comprehensive assessment of non-animal skin sensitization test methods and strategies.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Sebastian

2015-01-01

The development of non-animal skin sensitization test methods and strategies is quickly progressing. Either individually or in combination, the predictive capacity is usually described in comparison to local lymph node assay (LLNA) results. In this process the important lesson from other endpoints, such as skin or eye irritation, to account for variability reference test results - here the LLNA - has not yet been fully acknowledged. In order to provide assessors as well as method and strategy developers with appropriate estimates, we investigated the variability of EC3 values from repeated substance testing using the publicly available NICEATM (NTP Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods) LLNA database. Repeat experiments for more than 60 substances were analyzed - once taking the vehicle into account and once combining data over all vehicles. In general, variability was higher when different vehicles were used. In terms of skin sensitization potential, i.e., discriminating sensitizer from non-sensitizers, the false positive rate ranged from 14-20%, while the false negative rate was 4-5%. In terms of skin sensitization potency, the rate to assign a substance to the next higher or next lower potency class was approx.10-15%. In addition, general estimates for EC3 variability are provided that can be used for modelling purposes. With our analysis we stress the importance of considering the LLNA variability in the assessment of skin sensitization test methods and strategies and provide estimates thereof.

Harmonics Generation by Surface Plasmon Polaritons on Single Nanowires.

PubMed

de Hoogh, Anouk; Opheij, Aron; Wulf, Matthias; Rotenberg, Nir; Kuipers, L

2016-08-17

We present experimental observations of visible wavelength second- and third-harmonic generation on single plasmonic nanowires of variable widths. We identify that near-infrared surface plasmon polaritons, which are guided along the nanowire, act as the source of the harmonics generation. We discuss the underlying mechanism of this nonlinear process, using a combination of spatially resolved measurements and numerical simulations to show that the visible harmonics are generated via a combination of both local and propagating plasmonic modes. Our results provide the first demonstration of nanoscale nonlinear optics with guided, propagating plasmonic modes on a lithographically defined chip, opening up new routes toward integrated optical circuits for information processing.

Major and trace element modeling of mid-ocean ridge mantle melting from the garnet to the plagioclase stability fields: Generating local and global compositional variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, S. M.; Behn, M. D.; Grove, T. L.

2017-12-01

We present results of a combined petrologic - geochemical (major and trace element) - geodynamical forward model for mantle melting and subsequent melt modification. The model advances Behn & Grove (2015), and is calibrated using experimental petrology. Our model allows for melting in the plagioclase, spinel, and garnet fields with a flexible retained melt fraction (from pure batch to pure fractional), tracks residual mantle composition, and includes melting with water, variable melt productivity, and mantle mode calculations. This approach is valuable for understanding oceanic crustal accretion, which involves mantle melting and melt modification by migration and aggregation. These igneous processes result in mid-ocean ridge basalts that vary in composition at the local (segment) and global scale. The important variables are geophysical and geochemical and include mantle composition, potential temperature, mantle flow, and spreading rate. Accordingly, our model allows us to systematically quantify the importance of each of these external variables. In addition to discriminating melt generation effects, we are able to discriminate the effects of different melt modification processes (inefficient pooling, melt-rock reaction, and fractional crystallization) in generating both local, segment-scale and global-scale compositional variability. We quantify the influence of a specific igneous process on the generation of oceanic crust as a function of variations in the external variables. We also find that it is unlikely that garnet lherzolite melting produces a signature in either major or trace element compositions formed from aggregated melts, because when melting does occur in the garnet field at high mantle temperature, it contributes a relatively small, uniform fraction (< 10%) of the pooled melt compositions at all spreading rates. Additionally, while increasing water content and/or temperature promote garnet melting, they also increase melt extent, pushing the pooled composition to lower Sm/Yb and higher Lu/Hf.

Climate, Birth Weight, and Agricultural Livelihoods in Kenya and Mali

PubMed Central

Grace, Kathryn; Nawrotzki, Raphael J.

2018-01-01

Objectives. To examine an association between climate variability and birth weight in Mali and Kenya in relation to the local agricultural specialization. Methods. We combined health and sociodemographic data from the Demographic Health Surveys for Kenya (2008 and 2014) and Mali (2006 and 2012) with detailed data on precipitation, temperature, and vegetation. We analyzed the association between climate variability and birth weight by using multilevel regression models for the most common agricultural specializations: food cropping, cash cropping, and pastoralism. Results. There are differences in sensitivity to climate among different agricultural communities. An additional 100 millimeters of rainfall during the 12-month period before birth was associated with a 47-gram (P = .001) and 89-gram (P = .10) increase in birth weight for food croppers in Kenya and Mali, respectively. Every additional hot month in food-cropping communities in Kenya was associated with a 71-gram decrease in birth weight (P = .030), likely because of food croppers’ limited use of modern agricultural techniques. Overall, cash croppers are least sensitive to climate variability in both countries. Conclusions. Effective climate change adaptation strategies are essential for protecting and improving health outcomes and should be tailored to local households’ livelihood strategies. PMID:29072943

Modelling landscape change in paddy fields using logistic regression and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franjaya, E. E.; Syartinilia; Setiawan, Y.

2018-05-01

Paddy field in karawang district, as an important agricultural land in west java, has been decreased since 1994. From previous study, paddy fields dominantly turned into built area. The changes were almost occured in the middle area of the district where roadways, industries, settlements, and commercial buildings were existed. These were estimated as driving forces. But, we still need to prove it. This study aimed to construct the paddy field probability change model, subsequently the driving forces will be obtained. GIS combined with logistic regression using environmental variables were used as main method in this study. Ten environmental variables were elevation 0–500 m, elevation>500 m, slope<8%, slope>8%, CBD, build up area, river, irrigation, toll and national roadway, and collector and local roadway. The result indicated that four variables were significantly played as driving forces (slope>8%, CBD area, build up area, and collector and local roadway). Paddy field has high, medium, and low probability to change which covered about 27.8%, 7.8%, and 64.4% area in Karawang respectively. Based on landscape ecology, the recommendation that suitable with landscape change is adaptive management.

Study on Finite Element Model Updating in Highway Bridge Static Loading Test Using Spatially-Distributed Optical Fiber Sensors

PubMed Central

Wu, Bitao; Lu, Huaxi; Chen, Bo; Gao, Zhicheng

2017-01-01

A finite model updating method that combines dynamic-static long-gauge strain responses is proposed for highway bridge static loading tests. For this method, the objective function consisting of static long-gauge stains and the first order modal macro-strain parameter (frequency) is established, wherein the local bending stiffness, density and boundary conditions of the structures are selected as the design variables. The relationship between the macro-strain and local element stiffness was studied first. It is revealed that the macro-strain is inversely proportional to the local stiffness covered by the long-gauge strain sensor. This corresponding relation is important for the modification of the local stiffness based on the macro-strain. The local and global parameters can be simultaneously updated. Then, a series of numerical simulation and experiments were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the static deformation, macro-strain and macro-strain modal can be predicted well by using the proposed updating model. PMID:28753912

Study on Finite Element Model Updating in Highway Bridge Static Loading Test Using Spatially-Distributed Optical Fiber Sensors.

PubMed

Wu, Bitao; Lu, Huaxi; Chen, Bo; Gao, Zhicheng

2017-07-19

A finite model updating method that combines dynamic-static long-gauge strain responses is proposed for highway bridge static loading tests. For this method, the objective function consisting of static long-gauge stains and the first order modal macro-strain parameter (frequency) is established, wherein the local bending stiffness, density and boundary conditions of the structures are selected as the design variables. The relationship between the macro-strain and local element stiffness was studied first. It is revealed that the macro-strain is inversely proportional to the local stiffness covered by the long-gauge strain sensor. This corresponding relation is important for the modification of the local stiffness based on the macro-strain. The local and global parameters can be simultaneously updated. Then, a series of numerical simulation and experiments were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the static deformation, macro-strain and macro-strain modal can be predicted well by using the proposed updating model.

Spatio-temporal variability of soil water content on the local scale in a Mediterranean mountain area (Vallcebre, North Eastern Spain). How different spatio-temporal scales reflect mean soil water content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, Antonio J.; Latron, Jérôme; Rubio, Carles M.; Gallart, Francesc; Llorens, Pilar

2014-08-01

As a result of complex human-land interactions and topographic variability, many Mediterranean mountain catchments are covered by agricultural terraces that have locally modified the soil water content dynamic. Understanding these local-scale dynamics helps us grasp better how hydrology behaves on the catchment scale. Thus, this study examined soil water content variability in the upper 30 cm of the soil on a Mediterranean abandoned terrace in north-east Spain. Using a dataset of high spatial (regular grid of 128 automatic TDR probes at 2.5 m intervals) and temporal (20-min time step) resolution, gathered throughout a 84-day period, the spatio-temporal variability of soil water content at the local scale and the way that different spatio-temporal scales reflect the mean soil water content were investigated. Soil water content spatial variability and its relation to wetness conditions were examined, along with the spatial structuring of the soil water content within the terrace. Then, the ability of single probes and of different combinations of spatial measurements (transects and grids) to provide a good estimate of mean soil water content on the terrace scale was explored by means of temporal stability analyses. Finally, the effect of monitoring frequency on the magnitude of detectable daily soil water content variations was studied. Results showed that soil water content spatial variability followed a bimodal pattern of increasing absolute variability with increasing soil water content. In addition, a linear trend of decreasing soil water content as the distance from the inner part of the terrace increased was identified. Once this trend was subtracted, resulting semi-variograms suggested that the spatial resolution examined was too high to appreciate spatial structuring in the data. Thus, the spatial pattern should be considered as random. Of all the spatial designs tested, the 10 × 10 m mesh grid (9 probes) was considered the most suitable option for a good, time-stable estimate of mean soil water content, as no improvement was obtained with the 5 × 5 m mesh grid (30 probes). Finally, the results of temporal aggregation showed that decreasing the monitoring frequency down to 8 h during wetting-up periods and to 1 day during drying-down ones did not result in a loss of information on daily soil water content variations.

Variable-angle epifluorescence microscopy characterizes protein dynamics in the vicinity of plasma membrane in plant cells.

PubMed

Chen, Tong; Ji, Dongchao; Tian, Shiping

2018-03-14

The assembly of protein complexes and compositional lipid patterning act together to endow cells with the plasticity required to maintain compositional heterogeneity with respect to individual proteins. Hence, the applications for imaging protein localization and dynamics require high accuracy, particularly at high spatio-temporal level. We provided experimental data for the applications of Variable-Angle Epifluorescence Microscopy (VAEM) in dissecting protein dynamics in plant cells. The VAEM-based co-localization analysis took penetration depth and incident angle into consideration. Besides direct overlap of dual-color fluorescence signals, the co-localization analysis was carried out quantitatively in combination with the methodology for calculating puncta distance and protein proximity index. Besides, simultaneous VAEM tracking of cytoskeletal dynamics provided more insights into coordinated responses of actin filaments and microtubules. Moreover, lateral motility of membrane proteins was analyzed by calculating diffusion coefficients and kymograph analysis, which represented an alternative method for examining protein motility. The present study presented experimental evidence on illustrating the use of VAEM in tracking and dissecting protein dynamics, dissecting endosomal dynamics, cell structure assembly along with membrane microdomain and protein motility in intact plant cells.

Testing numerical models for boulder transport due to high energy marine wave events: examples from the Saurashtra coast, Western India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavare, Kushal; Bhatt, Nilesh; Prizomwala, Siddharth

2017-04-01

The boulder deposits on the coasts are interpreted and evaluated as high energy marine wave events like tsunami. Several numerical models are now available to estimate wave height and/or run up of the tsunami wave. The coast of Saurashtra, facing the Arabian Sea on its west hosts such deposits in younger ( 1 and 6 ka) and older ( 35 ka) coastal records. The dimensions, characteristics and morphology of these boulders were studied with different numeric models and were applied with reference to submerged, sub-aerial and joint bounded boulder scenarios which were combined with the local control variables like roughness coefficient, slope of platforms, fractures, shoaling effect, etc. The application of these models indicated a significant role of local control variables in boulder dislodgment, transport and final emplacement on shore platform. Examples from three different sites from the coast of Saurashtra, western India are reported and discussed in detail.

Somali current studied from SEASAT altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perigaud, C.; Minster, J. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Balmino, G.

1984-01-01

Mesoscale variability has been obtained for the world ocean from satellite altimetry by using the repetitive tracks data of SEASAT. No significant results were obtained for the Somali current area for two main reasons: the repetitive tracks are too sparse to cover the expected eddy pattern and these data were obtained in late September and early October when the current is strongly decaying. The non-repetitive period of SEASAT offers the possibility to study a dozen of tracks parallel to the eddy axis or crossing it. These are used here to deduce the dynamic topography of the Somali current. Data error reduction and tide and orbit corrections are addressed. A local geoid was built using a collocation inverse method to combine surface gravity data and altimetry: the repetitive tracks show no variability (which confirms that the current is quasi-inexistent at that time) and can be used as data for the local geoid. This should provide a measure of the absolute dynamic topography of the Somali current.

Phase sensitive thermography for quality assessment of giant magnetostrictive composite materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Peng; Law, Chiu T.; Elhajjar, Rani

2017-04-01

Giant magnetostrictive materials are increasingly proposed for smart material applications such as in sensors, actuators, and energy harvesting applications. In a composites form, the materials are combined in particle form with polymer matrix composites. Reviewing the literature on this topic, the reader observes a large amount of variability in the reported properties that are typically based on recording (overall or localized) strain and magnetic field with non-collocating strain gages and a gauss meter, i.e. far field measurements. Previously the linking of the microstructure in magnetostrictive composite to the spatial variability of the localized magnetostrictive response, a significant factor for the composite performance in sensing and acutuation, has not been received adequate attention. In this paper, a full-field phase-sensitive thermography method is proposed to use full-field infrared measurements to infer changes in the microstructure in magnetostrictive polymer composites under a cyclic magnetic field. The results show how defects in the material can be rapidly identified from the proposed approach in inspecting the manufactured smart composites.

Mapping the changing pattern of local climate as an observed distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

It is at local scales that the impacts of climate change will be felt directly and at which adaptation planning decisions must be made. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about the pattern of local climate change. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs the pattern of variation in sensitivity with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify and map the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Estimating Causal Effects of Local Air Pollution on Daily Deaths: Effect of Low Levels.

PubMed

Schwartz, Joel; Bind, Marie-Abele; Koutrakis, Petros

2017-01-01

Although many time-series studies have established associations of daily pollution variations with daily deaths, there are fewer at low concentrations, or focused on locally generated pollution, which is becoming more important as regulations reduce regional transport. Causal modeling approaches are also lacking. We used causal modeling to estimate the impact of local air pollution on mortality at low concentrations. Using an instrumental variable approach, we developed an instrument for variations in local pollution concentrations that is unlikely to be correlated with other causes of death, and examined its association with daily deaths in the Boston, Massachusetts, area. We combined height of the planetary boundary layer and wind speed, which affect concentrations of local emissions, to develop the instrument for particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), or nitrogen dioxide (NO2) variations that were independent of year, month, and temperature. We also used Granger causality to assess whether omitted variable confounding existed. We estimated that an interquartile range increase in the instrument for local PM2.5 was associated with a 0.90% increase in daily deaths (95% CI: 0.25, 1.56). A similar result was found for BC, and a weaker association with NO2. The Granger test found no evidence of omitted variable confounding for the instrument. A separate test confirmed the instrument was not associated with mortality independent of pollution. Furthermore, the association remained when all days with PM2.5 concentrations > 30 μg/m3 were excluded from the analysis (0.84% increase in daily deaths; 95% CI: 0.19, 1.50). We conclude that there is a causal association of local air pollution with daily deaths at concentrations below U.S. EPA standards. The estimated attributable risk in Boston exceeded 1,800 deaths during the study period, indicating that important public health benefits can follow from further control efforts. Citation: Schwartz J, Bind MA, Koutrakis P. 2017. Estimating causal effects of local air pollution on daily deaths: effect of low levels. Environ Health Perspect 125:23-29; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP232.

Vector matter waves in two-component Bose-Einstein condensates with spatially modulated nonlinearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Si-Liu; He, Jun-Rong; Xue, Li; Belić, Milivoj R.

2018-02-01

We demonstrate three-dimensional (3D) vector solitary waves in the coupled (3 + 1)-D nonlinear Gross-Pitaevskii equations with variable nonlinearity coefficients. The analysis is carried out in spherical coordinates, providing novel localized solutions that depend on three modal numbers, l, m, and n. Using the similarity transformation (ST) method in 3D, vector solitary waves are built with the help of a combination of harmonic and trapping potentials, including multipole solutions and necklace rings. In general, the solutions found are stable for low values of the modal numbers; for values larger than 2, the solutions are found to be unstable. Variable nonlinearity allows the utilization of soliton management methods.

Estimation of the processes controlling variability in phytoplankton pigment distributions on the southeastern U.S. continental shelf

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclain, Charles R.; Ishizaka, Joji; Hofmann, Eileen E.

1990-01-01

Five coastal-zone-color-scanner images from the southeastern U.S. continental shelf are combined with concurrent moored current meter measurements to assess the processes controlling the variability in chlorophyll concentration and distribution in this region. An equation governing the space and time distribution of a nonconservative quantity such as chlorophyll is used in the calculations. The terms of the equation, estimated from observations, show that advective, diffusive, and local processes contribute to the plankton distributions and vary with time and location. The results from this calculation are compared with similar results obtained using a numerical physical-biological model with circulation fields derived from an optimal interpolation of the current meter observations and it is concluded that the two approaches produce different estimates of the processes controlling phytoplankton variability.

North Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability and Model Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Remote forcing from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local ocean-atmosphere feedback are important for climate variability over the North Tropical Atlantic. These two factors are extracted by the ensemble mean and inter-member difference of a 10-member Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment, in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but fully coupled to the atmosphere elsewhere. POGA reasonably captures main features of observed North Tropical Atlantic variability. ENSO forced and local North Tropical Atlantic modes (NTAMs) develop with wind-evaporation-SST feedback, explaining one third and two thirds of total variance respectively. Notable biases, however, exist. The seasonality of the simulated NTAM is delayed by one month, due to the late development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the model. A spurious band of enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) variance (SBEV) is identified over the northern equatorial Atlantic in POGA and 14 out of 23 CMIP5 models. The SBEV is especially pronounced in boreal spring and due to the combined effect of both anomalous atmospheric thermal forcing and oceanic vertical upwelling. While the tropical North Atlantic variability is only weakly correlated with the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM) in observations, the SBEV in CMIP5 produces conditions that drive and intensify the AZM variability via triggering the Bjerknes feedback. This partially explains why AZM is strong in some CMIP5 models even though the equatorial cold tongue and easterly trades are biased low.

TEC Longitude Difference Using GIMS and the IRI Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natali, Maria Paula; Meza, Amalia Margarita; Mendoza, Gastón

2016-07-01

The main geomagnetic field declination has a global distribution with positive and negative values showing maximum east-west differences over North America and Oceania and minimum differences over America and Asia. Several authors study one or more of these regions using TEC data derived from GNSS observations to describe variations in TEC. They reported a pronounced longitudinal variation respect to zero magnetic declination. One of the important factors that cause the longitude difference at mid-latitude is a combined effect of the longitude variations of magnetic declination and the variations of the zonal thermospheric winds with local time. We propose to study this effect using Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) and the respective TEC values generated from the International Reference Ionospheric (IRI) model, during a solar cycle, applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our works is focused over different local times and regions at mid-latitude. PCA involves a mathematical procedure that transforms a number of correlated variables into a number of uncorrelated variables using the data itself. The spatial structure of the ionosphere variability and its temporal evolution, together are called modes, and there are ordered according to their percentage of the variability of data from highest to lowest. In this analysis the first mode has more than the 90 % of the variability, representing the nominal behavior of the ionosphere, and the second and third modes are the more important for our analysis, because they show the strong longitudinal variation in the different regions using either GIMs or the IRI model.

Dynamic Topography and Sea Level Anomalies of the Southern Ocean: Variability and Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armitage, Thomas W. K.; Kwok, Ron; Thompson, Andrew F.; Cunningham, Glenn

2018-01-01

This study combines sea surface height (SSH) estimates of the ice-covered Southern Ocean with conventional open-ocean SSH estimates from CryoSat-2 to produce monthly composites of dynamic ocean topography (DOT) and sea level anomaly (SLA) on a 50 km grid spanning 2011-2016. This data set reveals the full Southern Ocean SSH seasonal cycle for the first time; there is an antiphase relationship between sea level on the Antarctic continental shelf and the deeper basins, with coastal SSH highest in autumn and lowest in spring. As a result of this pattern of seasonal SSH variability, the barotropic component of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) has speeds that are regionally up to twice as fast in the autumn. Month-to-month circulation variability of the Ross and Weddell Gyres is strongly influenced by the local wind field, and is correlated with the local wind curl (Ross: -0.58; Weddell: -0.67). SSH variability is linked to both the Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, dominant modes of southern hemisphere climate variability. In particular, during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño, a sustained negative coastal SLA of up to -6 cm, implying a weakening of the ASC, was observed in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. The ability to examine sea level variability in the seasonally ice-covered regions of the Southern Ocean—climatically important regions with an acute sparsity of data—makes this new merged sea level record of particular interest to the Southern Ocean oceanography and glaciology communities.

Cartilage segmentation of 3D MRI scans of the osteoarthritic knee combining user knowledge and active contours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, John A.; Zaim, Souhil; Zhao, Jenny; Stork, Alexander; Peterfy, Charles G.; Genant, Harry K.

2000-06-01

A technique for segmentation of articular cartilage from 3D MRI scans of the knee has been developed. It overcomes the limitations of the conventionally used region growing techniques, which are prone to inter- and intra-observer variability, and which can require much manual intervention. We describe a hybrid segmentation method combining expert knowledge with directionally oriented Canny filters, cost functions and cubic splines. After manual initialization, the technique utilized 3 cost functions which aided automated detection of cartilage and its boundaries. Using the sign of the edge strength, and the local direction of the boundary, this technique is more reliable than conventional 'snakes,' and the user had little control over smoothness of boundaries. This means that the automatically detected boundary can conform to the true shape of the real boundary, also allowing reliable detection of subtle local lesions on the normally smooth cartilage surface. Manual corrections, with possible re-optimization were sometimes needed. When compared to the conventionally used region growing techniques, this newly described technique measured local cartilage volume with 3 times better reproducibility, and involved two thirds less human interaction. Combined with the use of 3D image registration, the new technique should also permit unbiased segmentation of followup scans by automated initialization from a baseline segmentation of an earlier scan of the same patient.

Cost, energy, global warming, eutrophication and local human health impacts of community water and sanitation service options.

PubMed

Schoen, Mary E; Xue, Xiaobo; Wood, Alison; Hawkins, Troy R; Garland, Jay; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

We compared water and sanitation system options for a coastal community across selected sustainability metrics, including environmental impact (i.e., life cycle eutrophication potential, energy consumption, and global warming potential), equivalent annual cost, and local human health impact. We computed normalized metric scores, which we used to discuss the options' strengths and weaknesses, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the scores to changes in variable and uncertain input parameters. The alternative systems, which combined centralized drinking water with sanitation services based on the concepts of energy and nutrient recovery as well as on-site water reuse, had reduced environmental and local human health impacts and costs than the conventional, centralized option. Of the selected sustainability metrics, the greatest advantages of the alternative community water systems (compared to the conventional system) were in terms of local human health impact and eutrophication potential, despite large, outstanding uncertainties. Of the alternative options, the systems with on-site water reuse and energy recovery technologies had the least local human health impact; however, the cost of these options was highly variable and the energy consumption was comparable to on-site alternatives without water reuse or energy recovery, due to on-site reuse treatment. Future work should aim to reduce the uncertainty in the energy recovery process and explore the health risks associated with less costly, on-site water treatment options. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small scale.

PubMed

Dong, Chengxu; Gao, Meixiang; Guo, Chuanwei; Lin, Lin; Wu, Donghui; Zhang, Limin

2017-01-01

Metacommunity theory provides an understanding of how ecological processes regulate local community assemblies. However, few field studies have evaluated the underlying mechanisms of a metacommunity on a small scale through revealing the relative roles of spatial and environmental filtering in structuring local community composition. Based on a spatially explicit sampling design in 2012 and 2013, this study aims to evaluate the underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small spatial scale (50 m) in a temperate deciduous forest located at the Maoershan Ecosystem Research Station, Northeast China. Moran's eigenvector maps (MEMs) were used to model independent spatial variables. The relative importance of spatial (including trend variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, and broad- and fine-scale spatial variables) and environmental factors in driving the soil mite metacommunity was determined by variation partitioning. Mantel and partial Mantel tests and a redundancy analysis (RDA) were also used to identify the relative contributions of spatial and environmental variables. The results of variation partitioning suggested that the relatively large and significant variance was a result of spatial variables (including broad- and fine-scale spatial variables and trend), indicating the importance of dispersal limitation and autocorrelation processes. The significant contribution of environmental variables was detected in 2012 based on a partial Mantel test, and soil moisture and soil organic matter were especially important for the soil mite metacommunity composition in both years. The study suggested that the soil mite metacommunity was primarily regulated by dispersal limitation due to broad-scale and neutral biotic processes at a fine-scale and that environmental filtering might be of subordinate importance. In conclusion, a combination of metacommunity perspectives between neutral and species sorting theories was suggested to be important in the observed structure of the soil mite metacommunity at the studied small scale.

The underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small scale

PubMed Central

Guo, Chuanwei; Lin, Lin; Wu, Donghui; Zhang, Limin

2017-01-01

Metacommunity theory provides an understanding of how ecological processes regulate local community assemblies. However, few field studies have evaluated the underlying mechanisms of a metacommunity on a small scale through revealing the relative roles of spatial and environmental filtering in structuring local community composition. Based on a spatially explicit sampling design in 2012 and 2013, this study aims to evaluate the underlying processes of a soil mite metacommunity on a small spatial scale (50 m) in a temperate deciduous forest located at the Maoershan Ecosystem Research Station, Northeast China. Moran’s eigenvector maps (MEMs) were used to model independent spatial variables. The relative importance of spatial (including trend variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, and broad- and fine-scale spatial variables) and environmental factors in driving the soil mite metacommunity was determined by variation partitioning. Mantel and partial Mantel tests and a redundancy analysis (RDA) were also used to identify the relative contributions of spatial and environmental variables. The results of variation partitioning suggested that the relatively large and significant variance was a result of spatial variables (including broad- and fine-scale spatial variables and trend), indicating the importance of dispersal limitation and autocorrelation processes. The significant contribution of environmental variables was detected in 2012 based on a partial Mantel test, and soil moisture and soil organic matter were especially important for the soil mite metacommunity composition in both years. The study suggested that the soil mite metacommunity was primarily regulated by dispersal limitation due to broad-scale and neutral biotic processes at a fine-scale and that environmental filtering might be of subordinate importance. In conclusion, a combination of metacommunity perspectives between neutral and species sorting theories was suggested to be important in the observed structure of the soil mite metacommunity at the studied small scale. PMID:28481906

Prostate lesion detection and localization based on locality alignment discriminant analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Mingquan; Chen, Weifu; Zhao, Mingbo; Gibson, Eli; Bastian-Jordan, Matthew; Cool, Derek W.; Kassam, Zahra; Chow, Tommy W. S.; Ward, Aaron; Chiu, Bernard

2017-03-01

Prostatic adenocarcinoma is one of the most commonly occurring cancers among men in the world, and it also the most curable cancer when it is detected early. Multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) combines anatomic and functional prostate imaging techniques, which have been shown to produce high sensitivity and specificity in cancer localization, which is important in planning biopsies and focal therapies. However, in previous investigations, lesion localization was achieved mainly by manual segmentation, which is time-consuming and prone to observer variability. Here, we developed an algorithm based on locality alignment discriminant analysis (LADA) technique, which can be considered as a version of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) localized to patches in the feature space. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy generated by the proposed algorithm in five prostates by LADA were 52.2%, 89.1% and 85.1% respectively, compared to 31.3%, 85.3% and 80.9% generated by LDA. The delineation accuracy attainable by this tool has a potential in increasing the cancer detection rate in biopsies and in minimizing collateral damage of surrounding tissues in focal therapies.

Variable links within perceived police legitimacy?: fairness and effectiveness across races and places.

PubMed

Taylor, Ralph B; Wyant, Brian R; Lockwood, Brian

2015-01-01

This work examines connections between two threads of community residents' perceptions of local police legitimacy, effectiveness and procedural fairness, and how those links depend on race, place, and race/place combinations. Previous works have connected these two threads, but have failed (a) to explore the variability of that connection by race, place, and race/place combinations across communities spanning the urban to suburban to rural continuum or (b) to model mutual influence. An extension of the group position thesis and work on minority views of police practices suggest how these variations might be patterned. Data were derived from a 2003 probability-based sampling survey of household respondents across Pennsylvania (n=1289). Generalized confirmatory factor analysis models built procedural fairness and effectiveness indices for four groups: whites in urban core counties, non-whites in urban core counties, whites in non-urban core counties, and non-whites in non-urban core counties. Non-recursive structural equation models revealed variable impacts of perceived police effectiveness on perceived police fairness and, to a lesser extent, of fairness on effectiveness. Implications for a more structurally and contextually aware understanding of links in police legitimacy models are developed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty propagation for SPECT/CT-based renal dosimetry in 177Lu peptide receptor radionuclide therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, Johan; Brolin, Gustav; Cox, Maurice; Ljungberg, Michael; Johansson, Lena; Sjögreen Gleisner, Katarina

2015-11-01

A computer model of a patient-specific clinical 177Lu-DOTATATE therapy dosimetry system is constructed and used for investigating the variability of renal absorbed dose and biologically effective dose (BED) estimates. As patient models, three anthropomorphic computer phantoms coupled to a pharmacokinetic model of 177Lu-DOTATATE are used. Aspects included in the dosimetry-process model are the gamma-camera calibration via measurement of the system sensitivity, selection of imaging time points, generation of mass-density maps from CT, SPECT imaging, volume-of-interest delineation, calculation of absorbed-dose rate via a combination of local energy deposition for electrons and Monte Carlo simulations of photons, curve fitting and integration to absorbed dose and BED. By introducing variabilities in these steps the combined uncertainty in the output quantity is determined. The importance of different sources of uncertainty is assessed by observing the decrease in standard deviation when removing a particular source. The obtained absorbed dose and BED standard deviations are approximately 6% and slightly higher if considering the root mean square error. The most important sources of variability are the compensation for partial volume effects via a recovery coefficient and the gamma-camera calibration via the system sensitivity.

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Internal and forced eddy variability in the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracco, A.; Luo, H.; Zhong, Y.; Lilly, J.

2009-04-01

Water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea, widely believed to be one of the key regions in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), now appears to be strongly impacted by vortex dynamics of the unstable boundary current. Large interannual variations in both eddy shedding and buoyancy transport from the boundary current have been observed but not explained, and are apparently sensitive to the state of the inflowing current. Heat and salinity fluxes associated with the eddies drive ventilation changes not accounted for by changes in local surface forcing, particularly during occasional years of extreme eddy activity, and constitute a predominant source of "internal" oceanic variability. The nature of this variable eddy-driven restratification is one of the outstanding questions along the northern transformation pathway. Here we investigate the eddy generation mechanism and the associated buoyancy fluxes by combining realistic and idealized numerical modeling, data analysis, and theory. Theory, supported by idealized experiments, provides criteria to test hypotheses as to the vortex formation process (by baroclinic instability linked to the bottom topography). Ensembles of numerical experiments with a high-resolution regional model (ROMS) allow for quantifying the sensitivity of eddy generation and property transport to variations in local and external forcing parameters. For the first time, we reproduce with a numerical simulation the observed interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy in the convective region of the Labrador Basin and along the West Greenland Current.

Addition of topical pimecrolimus to once-daily mid-potent steroid confers no short-term therapeutic benefit in the treatment of severe atopic dermatitis; a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Spergel, J M; Boguniewicz, M; Paller, A S; Hebert, A A; Gallagher, P R; McCormick, C; Parneix-Spake, A; Hultsch, T

2007-08-01

Combination therapy with pimecrolimus cream 1%, a topical calcineurin inhibitor (TCI), and fluticasone propionate cream 0.05% (FP), a mid-potency topical corticosteroid, may have a synergistic effect for treatment of atopic dermatitis (AD) because their mechanism of action differs. To assess the efficacy of concomitant pimecrolimus twice daily/FP once daily vs. vehicle twice daily/FP once daily in patients with severe AD. An exploratory, 2-week, double-blind, randomized, within-patient study was conducted (n = 45). Two target areas of similar severity, size and location were assessed. Assessments included the modified Eczema Area and Severity Index (0-12 scale) (primary variable), localized investigator global assessment (0-4 scale) and Patients' Self-Assessment of Disease Severity (0-4 scale). Data for all variables were similar for the TCI/FP and vehicle/FP treatments. The efficacy observed for treatment of severe AD flares with this TCI/FP combination regimen was equivalent to that of vehicle/FP.

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients

PubMed Central

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages. PMID:26091266

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients.

PubMed

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages.

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization of Composite Structures Based on Response Surface Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rais-Rohani, Masoud

2003-01-01

This report discusses the development and application of two alternative strategies in the form of global and sequential local response surface (RS) techniques for the solution of reliability-based optimization (RBO) problems. The problem of a thin-walled composite circular cylinder under axial buckling instability is used as a demonstrative example. In this case, the global technique uses a single second-order RS model to estimate the axial buckling load over the entire feasible design space (FDS) whereas the local technique uses multiple first-order RS models with each applied to a small subregion of FDS. Alternative methods for the calculation of unknown coefficients in each RS model are explored prior to the solution of the optimization problem. The example RBO problem is formulated as a function of 23 uncorrelated random variables that include material properties, thickness and orientation angle of each ply, cylinder diameter and length, as well as the applied load. The mean values of the 8 ply thicknesses are treated as independent design variables. While the coefficients of variation of all random variables are held fixed, the standard deviations of ply thicknesses can vary during the optimization process as a result of changes in the design variables. The structural reliability analysis is based on the first-order reliability method with reliability index treated as the design constraint. In addition to the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of reliability index, the results of the RBO problem are presented for different combinations of cylinder length and diameter and laminate ply patterns. The two strategies are found to produce similar results in terms of accuracy with the sequential local RS technique having a considerably better computational efficiency.

Additional Samples: Where They Should Be Located

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilger, G. G., E-mail: jfelipe@ufrgs.br; Costa, J. F. C. L.; Koppe, J. C.

2001-09-15

Information for mine planning requires to be close spaced, if compared to the grid used for exploration and resource assessment. The additional samples collected during quasimining usually are located in the same pattern of the original diamond drillholes net but closer spaced. This procedure is not the best in mathematical sense for selecting a location. The impact of an additional information to reduce the uncertainty about the parameter been modeled is not the same everywhere within the deposit. Some locations are more sensitive in reducing the local and global uncertainty than others. This study introduces a methodology to select additionalmore » sample locations based on stochastic simulation. The procedure takes into account data variability and their spatial location. Multiple equally probable models representing a geological attribute are generated via geostatistical simulation. These models share basically the same histogram and the same variogram obtained from the original data set. At each block belonging to the model a value is obtained from the n simulations and their combination allows one to access local variability. Variability is measured using an uncertainty index proposed. This index was used to map zones of high variability. A value extracted from a given simulation is added to the original data set from a zone identified as erratic in the previous maps. The process of adding samples and simulation is repeated and the benefit of the additional sample is evaluated. The benefit in terms of uncertainty reduction is measure locally and globally. The procedure showed to be robust and theoretically sound, mapping zones where the additional information is most beneficial. A case study in a coal mine using coal seam thickness illustrates the method.« less

Retrospective Analysis of Low Flows at Headwater Watersheds in Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voutchkova, D. D.; Miller, S. N.

2016-12-01

Understanding summer low-flow variability and change in the mountainous West has important implications for water allocations downstream and for maintaining water availability for drinking water supply, reservoir storage, industrial, agricultural, and ecological needs. Wildfires and insect infestations are classical disturbance hydrology topics. It is unclear, however, what are their effects on streamflow and in particular low-flows, when vegetation disturbances are overlapping in time and combined with highly variable and potentially changing local climate. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to quantify changes in low-flows resulting from disturbance in headwater streams. Here we present a retrospective analysis based on: (1) 49-75 complete water years (wy) of daily streamflow data (USGS) for 14 high-elevation headwater watersheds with varying areas (60-1730 km2, 86-100% of watershed area >2000masl) and evergreen forest cover (15-82%), (2) 25-36 complete wy of daily snow-water equivalent accumulation (SWE) and precipitation data from Wyoming SNOTEL stations, (3) burned area boundaries for 20wy (MTBS project), (4) aerial surveys by R1, R2, R4 Forest Service Regions for 18wy (data on tree mortality). We quantify the change in various low-flow characteristics (e.g. post-snowmelt baseflow, Q90 and Q95, 3-,7-, 30- and 90-day annual minima etc.) while accounting for local inter- and multi-annual climate variability by using SWE accumulation data, as it integrates both temperature and precipitation changes. Our approach differs from typical before-after field-based investigation for paired watersheds, as it provides a synthesis over large temporal and spatial scales, resulting in spectrum of possible hydrologic responses due to varying disturbance severity. Quantifying the changes in low-flows and low-flow variability will improve our understanding and will facilitate water management and planning at local state-wide level.

Efficacy of two lion conservation programs in Maasailand, Kenya.

PubMed

Hazzah, Leela; Dolrenry, Stephanie; Naughton-Treves, Lisa; Naughton, Lisa; Edwards, Charles T T; Mwebi, Ogeto; Kearney, Fiachra; Frank, Laurence

2014-06-01

Lion (Panthera leo) populations are in decline throughout most of Africa. The problem is particularly acute in southern Kenya, where Maasai pastoralists have been spearing and poisoning lions at a rate that will ensure near term local extinction. We investigated 2 approaches for improving local tolerance of lions: compensation payments for livestock lost to predators and Lion Guardians, which draws on local cultural values and knowledge to mitigate livestock-carnivore conflict and monitor carnivores. To gauge the overall influence of conservation intervention, we combined both programs into a single conservation treatment variable. Using 8 years of lion killing data, we applied Manski's partial identification approach with bounded assumptions to investigate the effect of conservation treatment on lion killing in 4 contiguous areas. In 3 of the areas, conservation treatment was positively associated with a reduction in lion killing. We then applied a generalized linear model to assess the relative efficacy of the 2 interventions. The model estimated that compensation resulted in an 87-91% drop in the number of lions killed, whereas Lion Guardians (operating in combination with compensation and alone) resulted in a 99% drop in lion killing. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Improved methods for estimating local terrestrial water dynamics from GRACE in the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Wondwosen M.; Milewski, Adam M.

2017-12-01

Investigating terrestrial water cycle dynamics is vital for understanding the recent climatic variability and human impacts in the hydrologic cycle. In this study, a downscaling approach was developed and tested, to improve the applicability of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission for understanding local terrestrial water cycle dynamics in the Northern High Plains region. A non-parametric, artificial neural network (ANN)-based model, was utilized to downscale GRACE data by integrating it with hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture) derived from satellite and land surface model data. The downscaling model, constructed through calibration and sensitivity analysis, was used to estimate TWS anomaly for watersheds ranging from 5000 to 20,000 km2 in the study area. The downscaled water storage anomaly data were evaluated using water storage data derived from an (1) integrated hydrologic model, (2) land surface model (e.g. Noah), and (3) storage anomalies calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements. Results demonstrate the ANN predicts monthly TWS anomaly within the uncertainty (conservative error estimate = 34 mm) for most of the watersheds. Seasonal derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) from the ANN correlated well (r = ∼0.85) with GWSAs calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements for a watershed size as small as 6000 km2. ANN downscaled TWSA matches closely with Noah-based TWSA compared to standard GRACE extracted TWSA at a local scale. Moreover, the ANN-downscaled change in TWS replicated the water storage variability resulting from the combined effect of climatic and human impacts (e.g. abstraction). The implications of utilizing finer resolution GRACE data for improving local and regional water resources management decisions and applications are clear, particularly in areas lacking in-situ hydrologic monitoring networks.

Efficient Reformulation of the Thermoelastic Higher-order Theory for Fgms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Yogesh; Pindera, Marek-Jerzy; Arnold, Steven M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Functionally graded materials (FGMs) are characterized by spatially variable microstructures which are introduced to satisfy given performance requirements. The microstructural gradation gives rise to continuously or discretely changing material properties which complicate FGM analysis. Various techniques have been developed during the past several decades for analyzing traditional composites and many of these have been adapted for the analysis of FGMs. Most of the available techniques use the so-called uncoupled approach in order to analyze graded structures. These techniques ignore the effect of microstructural gradation by employing specific spatial material property variations that are either assumed or obtained by local homogenization. The higher-order theory for functionally graded materials (HOTFGM) is a coupled approach developed by Aboudi et al. (1999) which takes the effect of microstructural gradation into consideration and does not ignore the local-global interaction of the spatially variable inclusion phase(s). Despite its demonstrated utility, however, the original formulation of the higher-order theory is computationally intensive. Herein, an efficient reformulation of the original higher-order theory for two-dimensional elastic problems is developed and validated. The use of the local-global conductivity and local-global stiffness matrix approach is made in order to reduce the number of equations involved. In this approach, surface-averaged quantities are the primary variables which replace volume-averaged quantities employed in the original formulation. The reformulation decreases the size of the global conductivity and stiffness matrices by approximately sixty percent. Various thermal, mechanical, and combined thermomechanical problems are analyzed in order to validate the accuracy of the reformulated theory through comparison with analytical and finite-element solutions. The presented results illustrate the efficiency of the reformulation and its advantages in analyzing functionally graded materials.

VeriML: A Dependently-Typed, User-Extensible and Language-Centric Approach to Proof Assistants

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

the locally nameless approach [McKinna and Pollack, 1993]. The former two techniques replace all variables by numbers, whereas the locally nameless ...needs to be reasoned about together with shifting. This complicates both the statements and proofs of related lemmas. The locally nameless approach...the locally nameless approach, we separate free variables from bound variables and use deBruijn indices for bound variables (denoted as bi in Table 3.1

Natural ecosystem mimicry in traditional dryland agroecosystems: Insights from an empirical and holistic approach.

PubMed

Blanco, Julien; Michon, Geneviève; Carrière, Stéphanie M

2017-12-15

While the aim of Ecological Intensification is to enable the design of more sustainable and productive agricultural systems, it is not suited to dryland agroecosystems that are driven by non-equilibrium dynamics and intrinsic variability. Instead, a model based on mobility and variability management has been proposed for these agroecosystems. However, this model remains under-applied in southern Morocco where there have been few studies on the functioning of traditional agroecosystems. This paper focuses on an agroecosystem in the Moroccan Saharan fringe zone that combines agriculture and pastoralism in an acacia parkland. A grounded theory approach was used over a three-year investigation period (i) to highlight how agro-pastoral activities interface with environmental variability, and (ii) to analyze the formal and informal institutions that support these activities. Results show that farmers interface with rainfall variability through (i) an opportunistic agricultural calendar, (ii) a variation of cultivated areas, and (iii) crop diversification. Herders combine macro-mobility (nomads move over long distances to track rainfall) and micro-mobility (nomadic and sedentary herds are driven on a daily basis around settlements) to optimize the exploitation of ecological heterogeneity. During droughts, they also resort to State-subsidized forage supplies. Both cultivation and pastoral activities tend to interface with ecological dynamics and to mimic nature, resulting in a human-modified parkland that could be considered as a 'green agroecosystem'. The sustainability of natural resource use relies on flexible property rights, backed up by a social and cultural norm-based regulation system, that allow crop-livestock integration and landscape collective management. Despite encouraging results, the agroecosystem appears to be threatened by current agricultural policies, rural exodus and the lack of social recognition of nomadism. Nevertheless, because ecosystem mimicry of nature is often considered as a sound agricultural model for drylands, this case study could provide a basis for local development policies, and thus merits further attention from local managers and researchers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial structure of helminth communities in the golden grey mullet, Liza aurata (Actinopterygii: Mugilidae), from the Western Mediterranean.

PubMed

Míguez-Lozano, Raúl; Pardo-Carranza, Trinidad V; Blasco-Costa, Isabel; Balbuena, Juan Antonio

2012-10-01

Ecological investigations regarding the parasite fauna of grey mullets are scarce. The present study provides a detailed description of the helminth communities of Liza aurata in the Spanish western Mediterranean and analyzes the role of spatial, temporal, and host variables in shaping the infracommunities. In total, 204 fish were collected in 2 localities, situated ca. 290 km apart, in spring and fall of 2004 and 2005. A non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) was used to visualize an ordination of the infracommunities according to their relative similarities in parasite abundances. The relationship between infracommunity composition and explanatory variables (host size, locality, year, and season of harvest) was examined by permutational analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) applied to species abundances. Permutational tests for homogeneity of multivariate dispersion were used to test the null hypothesis of no differences in dispersion among groups formed by the factors whose effects were significant in PERMANOVA. A total of 33,241 helminth parasites, belonging to 18 species, was collected, i.e., 12 species of adult digeneans (23% of the parasite specimens), 3 digeneans as metacercariae (68%), 1 acanthocephalan (2.1%), and 2 monogeneans (6.5%). An important part of this helminth fauna is specialized to grey mullets, with a sizable portion of the component community restricted to the Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic. The NMDS ordination indicated high heterogeneity among infrapopulations. However, most differences at both the component and infracommunity level were related to geographic locality. In fact, the PERMANOVA showed that, among the explanatory variables considered, sampling locality accounted for the largest share of variation. The geographical differences observed may be related to local environmental characteristics or to the limited spatial dispersal of the species forming the component community. The latter was supported by the significant portion of variation explained by a 3-way interaction term. Thus, the spatial structure of our helminth infracommunities seems to be determined by a combination of differences in local environmental conditions and the transmission ability of each species at small local and time scales.

Integrating motion, illumination, and structure in video sequences with applications in illumination-invariant tracking.

PubMed

Xu, Yilei; Roy-Chowdhury, Amit K

2007-05-01

In this paper, we present a theory for combining the effects of motion, illumination, 3D structure, albedo, and camera parameters in a sequence of images obtained by a perspective camera. We show that the set of all Lambertian reflectance functions of a moving object, at any position, illuminated by arbitrarily distant light sources, lies "close" to a bilinear subspace consisting of nine illumination variables and six motion variables. This result implies that, given an arbitrary video sequence, it is possible to recover the 3D structure, motion, and illumination conditions simultaneously using the bilinear subspace formulation. The derivation builds upon existing work on linear subspace representations of reflectance by generalizing it to moving objects. Lighting can change slowly or suddenly, locally or globally, and can originate from a combination of point and extended sources. We experimentally compare the results of our theory with ground truth data and also provide results on real data by using video sequences of a 3D face and the entire human body with various combinations of motion and illumination directions. We also show results of our theory in estimating 3D motion and illumination model parameters from a video sequence.

XRD and EBSD analysis of anisotropic microstructure development in cold rolled F138 stainless steel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Vincentis, N.S., E-mail: devincentis@ifir-conic

The microstructural characteristics of deformation-processed materials highly influence their mechanical properties. For a complete characterization of a microstructure both local and global information must be gathered, which requires the combination of different analysis techniques. X-ray and Electron Backscatter Diffraction were used in the present paper to characterize the deformation induced in a cold rolled F138 austenitic stainless steel sample. The results obtained using laboratory and synchrotron X-ray sources were compared and combined with EBSD quantitative results, allowing the global and local characterization and orientation dependence of the deformation microstructure. A particular behavior was observed in the XRD data corresponding tomore » the planes with < 220 >∥ ND, likely due to a smaller amount of defects accumulated in the crystals with that particular orientation. EBSD was used to separate the scans data into partitions and to calculate misorientation variables and parameters, showing that this behavior can be attributed to a combination of larger grain sizes, lower local boundary misorientations and dislocation densities for crystals having < 220 >∥ ND. Several conclusions, of general validity for the evaluation of microstructure anisotropy, can be extracted from the results. - Highlights: •Combined XRD and EBSD for studying microstructure gave a superb insight on anisotropic accumulation of defects. •W-H and CMWP methods were applied for checking consistency of results. •XRD showed that a smaller accumulation of defects occurred in crystals with < 220 >∥ ND. •High brilliance X-ray beam allowed to study the anisotropy of defect accumulation.« less

Understanding Climate Variability of Urban Ecosystems Through the Lens of Citizen Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ripplinger, J.; Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ge, C.; Koutzoukis, S.

2017-12-01

The Los Angeles megacity is vulnerable to climate warming - a process that locally exacerbates the urban heat island effect as it intensifies with size and density of the built-up area. We know that large-scale drivers play a role, but in order to understand local-scale climate variation, more research is needed on the biophysical and sociocultural processes driving the urban climate system. In this study, we work with citizen scientists to deploy a high-density network of microsensors across a climate gradient to characterize geographic variation in neighborhood meso- and micro-climates. This research asks: How do urbanization, global climate, and vegetation interact across multiple scales to affect local-scale experiences of temperature? Additionally, citizen scientist-led efforts generated research questions focused on examining microclimatic differences among yard groundcover types (rock mulch vs. lawn vs. artificial turf) and also on variation in temperature related to tree cover. Combining sensor measurements with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) spatial models and satellite-based temperature, we estimate spatially-explicit maps of land surface temperature and air temperature to illustrate the substantial difference between surface and air urban heat island intensities and the variable degree of coupling between land surface and air temperature in urban areas. Our results show a strong coupling between air temperature variation and landcover for neighborhoods, with significant detectable signatures from tree cover and impervious surface. Temperature covaried most strongly with urbanization intensity at nighttime during peak summer season, when daily mean air temperature ranged from 12.8C to 30.4C across all groundcover types. The combined effects of neighborhood geography and vegetation determine where and how temperature and tree canopy vary within a city. This citizen science-enabled research shows how large-scale climate drivers and urbanization intensity jointly influence the nature and magnitude of coupling between air temperature and tree cover, and demonstrate how urban vegetation provides an important ecosystem service in cities by decreasing the intensity of local urban heat islands.

Application of loop analysis for evaluation of malaria control interventions.

PubMed

Yasuoka, Junko; Jimba, Masamine; Levins, Richard

2014-04-09

Despite continuous efforts and recent rapid expansion in the financing and implementation of malaria control interventions, malaria still remains one of the most devastating global health issues. Even in countries that have been successful in reducing the incidence of malaria, malaria control is becoming more challenging because of the changing epidemiology of malaria and waning community participation in control interventions. In order to improve the effectiveness of interventions and to promote community understanding of the necessity of continued control efforts, there is an urgent need to develop new methodologies that examine the mechanisms by which community-based malaria interventions could reduce local malaria incidence. This study demonstrated how the impact of community-based malaria control interventions on malaria incidence can be examined in complex systems by qualitative analysis combined with an extensive review of literature. First, sign digraphs were developed through loop analysis to analyse seven interventions: source reduction, insecticide/larvicide use, biological control, treatment with anti-malarials, insecticide-treated mosquito net/long-lasting insecticidal net, non-chemical personal protection measures, and educational intervention. Then, for each intervention, the sign digraphs and literature review were combined to analyse a variety of pathways through which the intervention can influence local malaria incidence as well as interactions between variables involved in the system. Through loop analysis it is possible to see whether increases in one variable qualitatively increases or decreases other variables or leaves them unchanged and the net effect of multiple, interacting variables. Qualitative analysis, specifically loop analysis, can be a useful tool to examine the impact of community-based malaria control interventions. Without relying on numerical data, the analysis was able to describe pathways through which each intervention could influence malaria incidence on the basis of the qualitative patterns of the interactions between variables in complex systems. This methodology is generalizable to various disease control interventions at different levels, and can be utilized by a variety of stakeholders such as researchers, community leaders and policy makers to better plan and evaluate their community-based disease control interventions.

Application of loop analysis for evaluation of malaria control interventions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite continuous efforts and recent rapid expansion in the financing and implementation of malaria control interventions, malaria still remains one of the most devastating global health issues. Even in countries that have been successful in reducing the incidence of malaria, malaria control is becoming more challenging because of the changing epidemiology of malaria and waning community participation in control interventions. In order to improve the effectiveness of interventions and to promote community understanding of the necessity of continued control efforts, there is an urgent need to develop new methodologies that examine the mechanisms by which community-based malaria interventions could reduce local malaria incidence. Methods This study demonstrated how the impact of community-based malaria control interventions on malaria incidence can be examined in complex systems by qualitative analysis combined with an extensive review of literature. First, sign digraphs were developed through loop analysis to analyse seven interventions: source reduction, insecticide/larvicide use, biological control, treatment with anti-malarials, insecticide-treated mosquito net/long-lasting insecticidal net, non-chemical personal protection measures, and educational intervention. Then, for each intervention, the sign digraphs and literature review were combined to analyse a variety of pathways through which the intervention can influence local malaria incidence as well as interactions between variables involved in the system. Through loop analysis it is possible to see whether increases in one variable qualitatively increases or decreases other variables or leaves them unchanged and the net effect of multiple, interacting variables. Results Qualitative analysis, specifically loop analysis, can be a useful tool to examine the impact of community-based malaria control interventions. Without relying on numerical data, the analysis was able to describe pathways through which each intervention could influence malaria incidence on the basis of the qualitative patterns of the interactions between variables in complex systems. This methodology is generalizable to various disease control interventions at different levels, and can be utilized by a variety of stakeholders such as researchers, community leaders and policy makers to better plan and evaluate their community-based disease control interventions. PMID:24713031

Use of a handheld low-cost sensor to explore the effect of urban design features on local-scale spatial and temporal air quality variability.

PubMed

Miskell, Georgia; Salmond, Jennifer A; Williams, David E

2018-04-01

Portable low-cost instruments have been validated and used to measure ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) at multiple sites over a small urban area with 20min time resolution. We use these results combined with land use regression (LUR) and rank correlation methods to explore the effects of traffic, urban design features, and local meteorology and atmosphere chemistry on small-scale spatio-temporal variations. We measured NO 2 at 45 sites around the downtown area of Vancouver, BC, in spring 2016, and constructed four different models: i) a model based on averaging concentrations observed at each site over the whole measurement period, and separate temporal models for ii) morning, iii) midday, and iv) afternoon. Redesign of the temporal models using the average model predictors as constants gave three 'hybrid' models that used both spatial and temporal variables. These accounted for approximately 50% of the total variation with mean absolute error±5ppb. Ranking sites by concentration and by change in concentration across the day showed a shift of high NO 2 concentrations across the central city from morning to afternoon. Locations could be identified in which NO 2 concentration was determined by the geography of the site, and others as ones in which the concentration changed markedly from morning to afternoon indicating the importance of temporal controls. Rank correlation results complemented LUR in identifying significant urban design variables that impacted NO 2 concentration. High variability across a relatively small space was partially described by predictor variables related to traffic (bus stop density, speed limits, traffic counts, distance to traffic lights), atmospheric chemistry (ozone, dew point), and environment (land use, trees). A high-density network recording continuously would be needed fully to capture local variations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental manipulation of leaf litter colonization by aquatic invertebrates in a third order tropical stream.

PubMed

Uieda, V S; Carvalho, E M

2015-05-01

Through a manipulative experiment, the colonization of leaf litter by invertebrates was investigated in two sections of a tropical stream (spatial scale) that differed in function of the canopy cover, one with the presence (closed area) and another without riparian vegetation (open area), during one month of the dry and one of the wet season (temporal scale). The work aimed to verify differences related to four variables: season, canopy cover, leaf type and leaf condition. Litter bags containing arboreal and herbaceous leaves (leaf type variable), non-conditioned and preconditioned (leaf condition variable) were placed at the bottom of the stream in each area (canopy cover variable) and season (dry and wet), and removed after 13-day colonization. The analysis of the remaining litter dry mass per leaf bag emphasizes differences related mainly to seasonality, canopy cover and leaf type, although leaf condition was also important when combined with those three factors. Comparing the abundance of invertebrates per treatment, there was a tendency of high predominance of Chironomidae during the dry season and greater taxa diversity and evenness during the wet season, when the water flow increase could alter the availability of microhabitats for local fauna. Even though canopy cover alone was not a significant source of variation in the abundance of invertebrates, the results showed a tendency of a combined effect of canopy cover with seasonality and leaf condition.

Making the best of climatic variability: options for upgrading rainfed farming in water scarce regions.

PubMed

Rockström, J

2004-01-01

Coping with climatic variability for livelihood security is part of everyday life for rural communities in semi-arid and dry sub-humid savannas. Water scarcity caused by rainfall fluctuations is common, causing meteorological droughts and dry spells. However, this paper indicates, based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa and India, that the social impact on rural societies of climatically induced droughts is exaggerated. Instead, water scarcity causing food deficits is more often caused by management induced droughts and dry spells. A conceptual framework to distinguish between manageable and unmanageable droughts is presented. It is suggested that climatic droughts require focus on social resilience building instead of land and water resource management. Focus is then set on the manageable part of climatic variability, namely the almost annual occurrence of dry spells, short 2-4 week periods of no rainfall, affecting farmer yields. On-farm experiences in savannas of sub-Saharan Africa of water harvesting systems for dry spell mitigation are presented. It is shown that bridging dry spells combined with soil fertility management can double and even triple on-farm yield levels. Combined with innovative systems to ensure maximum plant water availability and water uptake capacity, through adoption of soil fertility improvement and conservation tillage systems, there is a clear opportunity to upgrade rainfed farming systems in vulnerable savanna environments, through appropriate local management of climatic variability.

Irradiation with and without razoxane in the treatment of incompletely resected or inoperable recurrent rectal cancer. Results of a small randomized multicenter study.

PubMed

Rhomberg, Walter; Hammer, Josef; Sedlmayer, Felix; Eiter, Helmut; Seewald, Dieter; Schneider, Barbara

2007-07-01

In an earlier phase II study, irradiation together with razoxane was shown to improve local control in recurrent rectal cancer. Therefore, the Austrian Society of Radiooncology (OGRO) initiated a randomized controlled trial in 1992 to compare this combined treatment versus radiation therapy alone. Between 1992 and 1999, 36 patients with localized recurrences of rectal cancer were randomized to receive radiotherapy without (group A) or with razoxane (group B). The prognostic variables of the two groups were similar except for a longer median latency period from initial surgery to local recurrence in group A. High-energy photons with daily fractions between 170 and 200 cGy were used. The median total radiation dose was 60 Gy in each group. The patients in group B received a median razoxane dose of 9.6 g (range, 5-12 g). Main outcome measures were local control, overall survival, and toxicity. The combined treatment with razoxane increased the local control rate compared to radiotherapy alone (39% vs. 8%; p = 0.05). The median survival time was not different between the groups (20 months each). No patient in arm A but four of 18 patients in arm B survived 5 years. Acute toxic effects were of moderate degree in both groups. There were no substantial differences as to late side effects. Radiotherapy together with razoxane is superior to radiation treatment alone in recurrent rectal cancer as far as local control is concerned. In some patients, long-term survival was achieved with razoxane and radiotherapy.

Constancy and asynchrony of Osmoderma eremita populations in tree hollows.

PubMed

Ranius, Thomas

2001-01-01

A species rich beetle fauna is associated with old, hollow trees. Many of these species are regarded as endangered, but there is little understanding of the population structure and extinction risks of these species. In this study I show that one of the most endangered beetles, Osmoderma eremita, has a population structure which conforms to that of a metapopulation, with each tree possibly sustaining a local population. This was revealed by performing a mark-release-recapture experiment in 26 trees over a 5-year period. The spatial variability between trees was much greater than temporal variability between years. The population size was on average 11 adults tree -1 year -1 , but differed widely between trees (0-85 adults tree -1 year -1 ). The population size in each tree varied moderately between years [mean coefficient of variation (C.V.)=0.51], but more widely than from sampling errors alone (P=0.008, Monte Carlo simulation). The population size variability in all trees combined, however, was not larger than expected from sampling errors alone in a constant population (C.V.=0.15, P=0.335, Monte Carlo simulation). Thus, the fluctuations of local populations cancel each other out when they are added together. This pattern can arise only when the fluctuations occur asynchronously between trees. The asynchrony of the fluctuations justifies the assumption usually made in metapopulation modelling, that local populations within a metapopulation fluctuate independently of one another. The asynchrony might greatly increase persistence time at the metapopulation level (per stand), compared to the local population level (per tree). The total population size of O. eremita in the study area was estimated to be 3,900 individuals. Other localities sustaining O. eremita are smaller in area, and most of these must be enlarged to allow long-term metapopulation persistence and to satisfy genetic considerations of the O. eremita populations.

Regionalization of local geomorphometric derivations for geological mapping in the sedimentary domain of central Amazônia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valeriano, Márcio de Morisson; Rossetti, Dilce de Fátima

2017-03-01

This paper reports procedures to prepare locally derived geomorphometric data for geological mapping at regional scale in central Amazônia. The size of the study area, approximately 1.5 million km2, and the prevailing flat topography of the targeted environment were the constraints motivating the aims, at spatial and numerical synthesis of the detailed geomorphometric information derived from SRTM DEM. The developed approach consisted in assigning single (average) values to terrain patches, to represent the regional distribution of pixel-based geomorphometric information (slope, profile curvature and relative relief). In analogy to the nature of sedimentary packs, patches were established as contiguous elevation strata, constructed through a procedure combining segmentation, filterings and range compressions. For slope only, pre-processing of locally derived data with median filtering effectively avoided the typical flattening of the regionalized results due to input distribution characteristics. Profile curvature was transformed into absolute values and thus a different meaning from the original (pixel) variable was considered in the interpretation, also avoiding the compensation of original values (positive and negative) tending to zero value when averaged through a regionally flat extension. Examinations near major river valleys showed patched elevation to depict alluvial terraces. In the interfluves and floodplains, contrasting patterns in the averaged variables among patches of similar elevations allowed the recognition of important relief features. In addition to the reduction of the distribution ranges, the correlation between regionalized geomorphometric variables was higher than observed in the originally local data, due to the thematic synthesis following regionalization. Depth of dissection, claimed to be related to the relative age of sedimentary units, was the main factor to explain the overall variations of the geomorphometric results. The developed regionalization process improved the potential of local geomorphometric data for updating and revision of geological maps and for guiding future surveys in the sedimentary domain of Amazônia.

THE VARIABILITY OF HCN IN TITAN’S UPPER ATMOSPHERE AS IMPLIED BY THE CASSINI ION-NEUTRAL MASS SPECTROMETER MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cui, J.; Cao, Y.-T.; Lavvas, P. P.

2016-07-20

HCN is an important constituent in Titan’s upper atmosphere, serving as the main coolant in the local energy budget. In this study, we derive the HCN abundance at the altitude range of 960–1400 km, combining the Ion-Neutral Mass Spectrometer data acquired during a large number of Cassini flybys with Titan. Typically, the HCN abundance declines modestly with increasing altitude and flattens to a near constant level above 1200 km. The data reveal a tendency for dayside depletion of HCN, which is clearly visible below 1000 km but weakens with increasing altitude. Despite the absence of convincing anti-correlation between HCN volumemore » mixing ratio and neutral temperature, we argue that the variability in HCN abundance makes an important contribution to the large temperature variability observed in Titan’s upper atmosphere.« less

Earth Observation and Indicators Pertaining to Determinants of Health- An Approach to Support Local Scale Characterization of Environmental Determinants of Vector-Borne Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotchi, Serge Olivier; Brazeau, Stephanie; Ludwig, Antoinette; Aube, Guy; Berthiaume, Pilippe

2016-08-01

Environmental determinants (EVDs) were identified as key determinant of health (DoH) for the emergence and re-emergence of several vector-borne diseases. Maintaining ongoing acquisition of data related to EVDs at local scale and for large regions constitutes a significant challenge. Earth observation (EO) satellites offer a framework to overcome this challenge. However, EO image analysis methods commonly used to estimate EVDs are time and resource consuming. Moreover, variations of microclimatic conditions combined with high landscape heterogeneity limit the effectiveness of climatic variables derived from EO. In this study, we present what are DoH and EVDs, the impacts of EVDs on vector-borne diseases in the context of global environmental change, the need to characterize EVDs of vector-borne diseases at local scale and its challenges, and finally we propose an approach based on EO images to estimate at local scale indicators pertaining to EVDs of vector-borne diseases.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers' Adaptations.

PubMed

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008-2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4-66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers' practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers’ Adaptations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008–2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4–66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers’ practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations. PMID:28900435

On locally and nonlocally related potential systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheviakov, Alexei F.; Bluman, George W.

2010-07-01

For any partial differential equation (PDE) system, a local conservation law yields potential equations in terms of some potential variable, which normally is a nonlocal variable. The current paper examines situations when such a potential variable is a local variable, i.e., is a function of the independent and dependent variables of a given PDE system, and their derivatives. In the case of two independent variables, a simple necessary and sufficient condition is presented for the locality of such a potential variable, and this is illustrated by several examples. As a particular example, two-dimensional reductions of equilibrium equations for fluid and plasma dynamics are considered. It is shown that such reductions with respect to helical, axial, and translational symmetries have conservation laws which yield local potential variables. This leads to showing that the well-known Johnson-Frieman-Kruskal-Oberman (JFKO) and Bragg-Hawthorne (Grad-Shafranov) equations are locally related to the corresponding helically and axially symmetric PDE systems of fluid/plasma dynamics. For the axially symmetric case, local symmetry classifications and arising invariant solutions are compared for the original PDE system and the Bragg-Hawthorne (potential) equation. The potential equation is shown to have additional symmetries, denoted as restricted symmetries. Restricted symmetries leave invariant a family of solutions of a given PDE system but not the whole solution manifold, and hence are not symmetries of the given PDE system. Corresponding reductions are shown to yield solutions, which are not obtained as invariant solutions from local symmetry reduction.

Hot spot dynamics in carbon nanotube array devices.

PubMed

Engel, Michael; Steiner, Mathias; Seo, Jung-Woo T; Hersam, Mark C; Avouris, Phaedon

2015-03-11

We report on the dynamics of spatial temperature distributions in aligned semiconducting carbon nanotube array devices with submicrometer channel lengths. By using high-resolution optical microscopy in combination with electrical transport measurements, we observe under steady state bias conditions the emergence of time-variable, local temperature maxima with dimensions below 300 nm, and temperatures above 400 K. On the basis of time domain cross-correlation analysis, we investigate how the intensity fluctuations of the thermal radiation patterns are correlated with the overall device current. The analysis reveals the interdependence of electrical current fluctuations and time-variable hot spot formation that limits the overall device performance and, ultimately, may cause device degradation. The findings have implications for the future development of carbon nanotube-based technologies.

Quantitative assessment of mineral resources with an application to petroleum geology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harff, Jan; Davis, J.C.; Olea, R.A.

1992-01-01

The probability of occurrence of natural resources, such as petroleum deposits, can be assessed by a combination of multivariate statistical and geostatistical techniques. The area of study is partitioned into regions that are as homogeneous as possible internally while simultaneously as distinct as possible. Fisher's discriminant criterion is used to select geological variables that best distinguish productive from nonproductive localities, based on a sample of previously drilled exploratory wells. On the basis of these geological variables, each wildcat well is assigned to the production class (dry or producer in the two-class case) for which the Mahalanobis' distance from the observation to the class centroid is a minimum. Universal kriging is used to interpolate values of the Mahalanobis' distances to all locations not yet drilled. The probability that an undrilled locality belongs to the productive class can be found, using the kriging estimation variances to assess the probability of misclassification. Finally, Bayes' relationship can be used to determine the probability that an undrilled location will be a discovery, regardless of the production class in which it is placed. The method is illustrated with a study of oil prospects in the Lansing/Kansas City interval of western Kansas, using geological variables derived from well logs. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Environmental characteristics drive variation in Amazonian understorey bird assemblages

PubMed Central

Magnusson, William E.; Anderson, Marti J.; Schlegel, Martin; Pe’er, Guy; Henle, Klaus

2017-01-01

Tropical bird assemblages display patterns of high alpha and beta diversity and, as tropical birds exhibit strong habitat specificity, their spatial distributions are generally assumed to be driven primarily by environmental heterogeneity and interspecific interactions. However, spatial distributions of some Amazonian forest birds are also often restricted by large rivers and other large-scale topographic features, suggesting that dispersal limitation may also play a role in driving species’ turnover. In this study, we evaluated the effects of environmental characteristics, topographic and spatial variables on variation in local assemblage structure and diversity of birds in an old-growth forest in central Amazonia. Birds were mist-netted in 72 plots distributed systematically across a 10,000 ha reserve in each of three years. Alpha diversity remained stable through time, but species composition changed. Spatial variation in bird-assemblage structure was significantly related to environmental and topographic variables but not strongly related to spatial variables. At a broad scale, we found bird assemblages to be significantly distinct between two watersheds that are divided by a central ridgeline. We did not detect an effect of the ridgeline per se in driving these patterns, indicating that most birds are able to fly across it, and that differences in assemblage structure between watersheds may be due to unmeasured environmental variables or unique combinations of measured variables. Our study indicates that complex geography and landscape features can act together with environmental variables to drive changes in the diversity and composition of tropical bird assemblages at local scales, but highlights that we still know very little about what makes different parts of tropical forest suitable for different species. PMID:28225774

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

2015-05-01

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Optimal Design of General Stiffened Composite Circular Cylinders for Global Buckling with Strength Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaunky, N.; Ambur, D. R.; Knight, N. F., Jr.

1998-01-01

A design strategy for optimal design of composite grid-stiffened cylinders subjected to global and local buckling constraints and strength constraints was developed using a discrete optimizer based on a genetic algorithm. An improved smeared stiffener theory was used for the global analysis. Local buckling of skin segments were assessed using a Rayleigh-Ritz method that accounts for material anisotropy. The local buckling of stiffener segments were also assessed. Constraints on the axial membrane strain in the skin and stiffener segments were imposed to include strength criteria in the grid-stiffened cylinder design. Design variables used in this study were the axial and transverse stiffener spacings, stiffener height and thickness, skin laminate stacking sequence and stiffening configuration, where stiffening configuration is a design variable that indicates the combination of axial, transverse and diagonal stiffener in the grid-stiffened cylinder. The design optimization process was adapted to identify the best suited stiffening configurations and stiffener spacings for grid-stiffened composite cylinder with the length and radius of the cylinder, the design in-plane loads and material properties as inputs. The effect of having axial membrane strain constraints in the skin and stiffener segments in the optimization process is also studied for selected stiffening configurations.

Optimal Design of General Stiffened Composite Circular Cylinders for Global Buckling with Strength Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaunky, Navin; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Ambur, Damodar R.

1998-01-01

A design strategy for optimal design of composite grid-stiffened cylinders subjected to global and local buckling constraints and, strength constraints is developed using a discrete optimizer based on a genetic algorithm. An improved smeared stiffener theory is used for the global analysis. Local buckling of skin segments are assessed using a Rayleigh-Ritz method that accounts for material anisotropy. The local buckling of stiffener segments are also assessed. Constraints on the axial membrane strain in the skin and stiffener segments are imposed to include strength criteria in the grid-stiffened cylinder design. Design variables used in this study are the axial and transverse stiffener spacings, stiffener height and thickness, skin laminate stacking sequence, and stiffening configuration, where herein stiffening configuration is a design variable that indicates the combination of axial, transverse, and diagonal stiffener in the grid-stiffened cylinder. The design optimization process is adapted to identify the best suited stiffening configurations and stiffener spacings for grid-stiffened composite cylinder with the length and radius of the cylinder, the design in-plane loads, and material properties as inputs. The effect of having axial membrane strain constraints in the skin and stiffener segments in the optimization process is also studied for selected stiffening configuration.

Local variability in metazoan parasites of the pelagic fish species, Engraulis ringens: implications for fish stock assessment using parasites as biological tags.

PubMed

Chavez, Rosa A; Valdivia, Isabel M; Oliva, Marcelo E

2007-06-01

Parasites have been used successfully as biological tags in population studies, mainly in marine fishes, but also in marine mammals, crustaceans and molluscs. Almost all published information dealing with parasites as biological tags evaluates differences between localities. However, local variability in the component community has not been assessed. In this work, we examined whether local variation of the metazoan parasite fauna of Engraulis ringens, extracted from five independent samples from two nearby localities in northern Chile, can be a factor causing bias in stock identification. Our results show that local variability, as estimated by a single sample, may suffice to represent component community variability with no need for replicated data.

Effects of spatial and temporal variability of turbidity on phytoplankton blooms

USGS Publications Warehouse

May, Christine L.; Koseff, Jeffrey R.; Lucas, Lisa; Cloern, James E.; Schoellhamer, David H.

2003-01-01

A central challenge of coastal ecology is sorting out the interacting spatial and temporal components of environmental variability that combine to drive changes in phytoplankton biomass. For 2 decades, we have combined sustained observation and experimentation in South San Francisco Bay (SSFB) with numerical modeling analyses to search for general principles that define phytoplankton population responses to physical dynamics characteristic of shallow, nutrient-rich coastal waters having complex bathymetry and influenced by tides, wind and river flow. This study is the latest contribution where we investigate light-limited phytoplankton growth using a numerical model, by modeling turbidity as a function of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). The goal was to explore the sensitivity of estuarine phytoplankton dynamics to spatial and temporal variations in turbidity, and to synthesize outcomes of simulation experiments into a new conceptual framework for defining the combinations of physical-biological forcings that promote or preclude development of phytoplankton blooms in coastal ecosystems. The 3 main conclusions of this study are: (1) The timing of the wind with semidiurnal tides and the spring-neap cycle can significantly enhance spring-neap variability in turbidity and phytoplankton biomass; (2) Fetch is a significant factor potentially affecting phytoplankton dynamics by enhancing and/or creating spatial variability in turbidity; and (3) It is possible to parameterize the combined effect of the processes influencing turbidity‹and thus affecting potential phytoplankton bloom development‹with 2 indices for vertical and horizontal clearing of the water column. Our conceptual framework is built around these 2 indices, providing a means to determine under what conditions a phytoplankton bloom can occur, and whether a potential bloom is only locally supported or system-wide in scale. This conceptual framework provides a tool for exploring the inherent light climate attributes of shallow estuarine ecosystems and helps determine susceptibility to the harmful effects of nutrient enrichment.

GIS-based niche modeling for mapping species' habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotenberry, J.T.; Preston, K.L.; Knick, S.

2006-01-01

Ecological a??niche modelinga?? using presence-only locality data and large-scale environmental variables provides a powerful tool for identifying and mapping suitable habitat for species over large spatial extents. We describe a niche modeling approach that identifies a minimum (rather than an optimum) set of basic habitat requirements for a species, based on the assumption that constant environmental relationships in a species' distribution (i.e., variables that maintain a consistent value where the species occurs) are most likely to be associated with limiting factors. Environmental variables that take on a wide range of values where a species occurs are less informative because they do not limit a species' distribution, at least over the range of variation sampled. This approach is operationalized by partitioning Mahalanobis D2 (standardized difference between values of a set of environmental variables for any point and mean values for those same variables calculated from all points at which a species was detected) into independent components. The smallest of these components represents the linear combination of variables with minimum variance; increasingly larger components represent larger variances and are increasingly less limiting. We illustrate this approach using the California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica Brewster) and provide SAS code to implement it.

Sharpening method of satellite thermal image based on the geographical statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Pengcheng; Hu, Shixiong; Zhang, Haijun; Guo, Guangmeng

2016-04-01

To improve the effectiveness of thermal sharpening in mountainous regions, paying more attention to the laws of land surface energy balance, a thermal sharpening method based on the geographical statistical model (GSM) is proposed. Explanatory variables were selected from the processes of land surface energy budget and thermal infrared electromagnetic radiation transmission, then high spatial resolution (57 m) raster layers were generated for these variables through spatially simulating or using other raster data as proxies. Based on this, the local adaptation statistical relationship between brightness temperature (BT) and the explanatory variables, i.e., the GSM, was built at 1026-m resolution using the method of multivariate adaptive regression splines. Finally, the GSM was applied to the high-resolution (57-m) explanatory variables; thus, the high-resolution (57-m) BT image was obtained. This method produced a sharpening result with low error and good visual effect. The method can avoid the blind choice of explanatory variables and remove the dependence on synchronous imagery at visible and near-infrared bands. The influences of the explanatory variable combination, sampling method, and the residual error correction on sharpening results were analyzed deliberately, and their influence mechanisms are reported herein.

How resilient are ecosystems in adapting to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenije, Hubert H. G.

2015-04-01

The conclusion often drawn in the media is that ecosystems may perish as a result of climate change. Although climatic trends may indeed lead to shifts in ecosystem composition, the challenge to adjust to climatic variability - even if there is no trend - is larger, particularly in semi-arid or topical climates where climatic variability is large compared to temperate climates. How do ecosystems buffer for climatic variability? The most powerful mechanism is to invest in root zone storage capacity, so as to guarantee access to water and nutrients during period of drought. This investment comes at a cost of having less energy available to invest in growth or formation of fruits. Ecosystems are expected to create sufficient buffer to overcome critical periods of drought, but not more than is necessary to survive or reproduce. Based on this concept, a methodology has been developed to estimate ecosystem root zone storage capacity at local, regional and global scale. These estimates correspond well with estimates made by combining soil and ecosystem information, but are more accurate and more detailed. The methodology shows that ecosystems have intrinsic capacity to adjust to climatic variability and hence have a high resilience to both climatic variability and climatic trends.

Influences of large-scale convection and moisture source on monthly precipitation isotope ratios observed in Thailand, Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongwang; Lee, Xuhui; Liu, Zhongfang; Seeboonruang, Uma; Koike, Masahiro; Yoshimura, Kei

2018-04-01

Many paleoclimatic records in Southeast Asia rely on rainfall isotope ratios as proxies for past hydroclimatic variability. However, the physical processes controlling modern rainfall isotopic behaviors in the region is poorly constrained. Here, we combined isotopic measurements at six sites across Thailand with an isotope-incorporated atmospheric circulation model (IsoGSM) and the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to investigate the factors that govern the variability of precipitation isotope ratios in this region. Results show that rainfall isotope ratios are both correlated with local rainfall amount and regional outgoing longwave radiation, suggesting that rainfall isotope ratios in this region are controlled not only by local rain amount (amount effect) but also by large-scale convection. As a transition zone between the Indian monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon, the spatial difference of observed precipitation isotope among different sites are associated with moisture source. These results highlight the importance of regional processes in determining rainfall isotope ratios in the tropics and provide constraints on the interpretation of paleo-precipitation isotope records in the context of regional climate dynamics.

Rivers, runoff, and reefs

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaughlin, C.J.; Smith, C.A.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Bartley, J.D.; Maxwell, B.A.

2003-01-01

The role of terrigenous sediment in controlling the occurrence of coral reef ecosystems is qualitatively understood and has been studied at local scales, but has not been systematically evaluated on a global-to-regional scale. Current concerns about degradation of reef environments and alteration of the hydrologic and sediment cycles place the issue at a focal point of multiple environmental concerns. We use a geospatial clustering of a coastal zone database of river and local runoff identified with 0.5?? grid cells to identify areas of high potential runoff effects, and combine this with a database of reported coral reef locations. Coastal cells with high runoff values are much less likely to contain reefs than low runoff cells and GIS buffer analysis demonstrates that this inhibition extends to offshore ocean cells as well. This analysis does not uniquely define the effects of sediment, since salinity, nutrients, and contaminants are potentially confounding variables also associated with runoff. However, sediment effects are likely to be a major factor and a basis is provided for extending the study to higher resolution with more specific variables. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping forest functional type in a forest-shrubland ecotone using SPOT imagery and predictive habitat distribution modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

2015-01-01

The availability of land cover data at local scales is an important component in forest management and monitoring efforts. Regional land cover data seldom provide detailed information needed to support local management needs. Here we present a transferable framework to model forest cover by major plant functional type using aerial photos, multi-date Système Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) imagery, and topographic variables. We developed probability of occurrence models for deciduous broad-leaved forest and needle-leaved evergreen forest using logistic regression in the southern portion of the Wyoming Basin Ecoregion. The model outputs were combined into a synthesis map depicting deciduous and coniferous forest cover type. We evaluated the models and synthesis map using a field-validated, independent data source. Results showed strong relationships between forest cover and model variables, and the synthesis map was accurate with an overall correct classification rate of 0.87 and Cohen’s kappa value of 0.81. The results suggest our method adequately captures the functional type, size, and distribution pattern of forest cover in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.

A data centred method to estimate and map how the local distribution of daily precipitation is changing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nick

2014-05-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on a method to transform daily observations of precipitation into patterns of local climate change. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by daily precipitation data. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results show regionally consistent patterns of systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, and of drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, 2013, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

A Method of Relating General Circulation Model Simulated Climate to the Observed Local Climate. Part I: Seasonal Statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, Thomas R.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Knight, Richard W.; Portman, David

1990-10-01

Important surface observations such as the daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and cloud ceilings often have localized characteristics that are difficult to reproduce with the current resolution and the physical parameterizations in state-of-the-art General Circulation climate Models (GCMs). Many of the difficulties can be partially attributed to mismatches in scale, local topography. regional geography and boundary conditions between models and surface-based observations. Here, we present a method, called climatological projection by model statistics (CPMS), to relate GCM grid-point flee-atmosphere statistics, the predictors, to these important local surface observations. The method can be viewed as a generalization of the model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prog (PP) procedures used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It consists of the application of three statistical methods: 1) principle component analysis (FICA), 2) canonical correlation, and 3) inflated regression analysis. The PCA reduces the redundancy of the predictors The canonical correlation is used to develop simultaneous relationships between linear combinations of the predictors, the canonical variables, and the surface-based observations. Finally, inflated regression is used to relate the important canonical variables to each of the surface-based observed variables.We demonstrate that even an early version of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric GCM (with prescribed sea surface temperature) produces free-atmosphere statistics than can, when standardized using the model's internal means and variances (the MOS-like version of CPMS), closely approximate the observed local climate. When the model data are standardized by the observed free-atmosphere means and variances (the PP version of CPMS), however, the model does not reproduce the observed surface climate as well. Our results indicate that in the MOS-like version of CPMS the differences between the output of a ten-year GCM control run and the surface-based observations are often smaller than the differences between the observations of two ten-year periods. Such positive results suggest that GCMs may already contain important climatological information that can be used to infer the local climate.

Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2002-01-01

In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a factor of 3 or more. These results indicate that there is substantially more variation in the local tsunami wave field derived from the inherent complexity subduction zone earthquakes than predicted by a simple elastic dislocation model. Probabilistic methods that take into account variability in earthquake rupture processes are likely to yield more accurate assessments of tsunami hazards.

Genotype and local environment dynamically influence growth, disturbance response and survivorship in the threatened coral, Acropora cervicornis.

PubMed

Drury, Crawford; Manzello, Derek; Lirman, Diego

2017-01-01

The relationship between the coral genotype and the environment is an important area of research in degraded coral reef ecosystems. We used a reciprocal outplanting experiment with 930 corals representing ten genotypes on each of eight reefs to investigate the influence of genotype and the environment on growth and survivorship in the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis. Coral genotype and site were strong drivers of coral growth and individual genotypes exhibited flexible, non-conserved reaction norms, complemented by ten-fold differences in growth between specific G-E combinations. Growth plasticity may diminish the influence of local adaptation, where foreign corals grew faster than native corals at their home sites. Novel combinations of environment and genotype also significantly affected disturbance response during and after the 2015 bleaching event, where these factors acted synergistically to drive variation in bleaching and recovery. Importantly, small differences in temperature stress elicit variable patterns of survivorship based on genotype and illustrate the importance of novel combinations of coral genetics and small differences between sites representing habitat refugia. In this context, acclimatization and flexibility is especially important given the long lifespan of corals coping with complex environmental change. The combined influence of site and genotype creates short-term differences in growth and survivorship, contributing to the standing genetic variation needed for adaptation to occur over longer timescales and the recovery of degraded reefs through natural mechanisms.

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Manobianco, John T.

1999-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit has configured a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) for east central Florida which assimilates in-situ and remotely-sensed observational data into a series of high-resolution gridded analyses. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short-ten-n forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models such as the Rapid Update Cycle and Eta models. LDIS combines all available data to produce grid analyses of primary variables (wind, temperature, etc.) at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. These analyses of primary variables can be used to compute diagnostic quantities such as vorticity and divergence. This paper demonstrates the utility of LDIS over east central Florida for a warm season case study. The evolution of a significant thunderstorm outflow boundary is depicted through horizontal and vertical cross section plots of wind speed, divergence, and circulation. In combination with a suitable visualization too], LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving mesoscale weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time.

Eastern South African hydroclimate over the past 270,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Margit H.; Ziegler, Martin; Bosmans, Joyce; Barker, Stephen; Reason, Chris J. C.; Hall, Ian R.

2015-12-01

Processes that control the hydrological balance in eastern South Africa on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood because proxy records documenting its variability at high resolution are scarce. In this work, we present a detailed 270,000 year-long record of terrestrial climate variability in the KwaZulu-Natal province based on elemental ratios of Fe/K from the southwest Indian Ocean, derived from X-ray fluorescence core scanning. Eastern South African climate variability on these time scales reflects both the long-term effect of regional insolation changes driven by orbital precession and the effects associated with high-latitude abrupt climate forcing over the past two glacial-interglacial cycles, including millennial-scale events not previously identified. Rapid changes towards more humid conditions in eastern South Africa as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling were potentially driven by a combination of warming in the Agulhas Current and shifts of the subtropical anticyclones. These climate oscillations appear coherent with other Southern Hemisphere records but are anti-phased with respect to the East Asian Monsoon. Numerical modelling results reveal that higher precipitation in the KwaZulu-Natal province during precession maxima is driven by a combination of increased local evaporation and elevated moisture transport into eastern South Africa from the coast of Mozambique.

Eastern South African hydroclimate over the past 270,000 years.

PubMed

Simon, Margit H; Ziegler, Martin; Bosmans, Joyce; Barker, Stephen; Reason, Chris J C; Hall, Ian R

2015-12-21

Processes that control the hydrological balance in eastern South Africa on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood because proxy records documenting its variability at high resolution are scarce. In this work, we present a detailed 270,000 year-long record of terrestrial climate variability in the KwaZulu-Natal province based on elemental ratios of Fe/K from the southwest Indian Ocean, derived from X-ray fluorescence core scanning. Eastern South African climate variability on these time scales reflects both the long-term effect of regional insolation changes driven by orbital precession and the effects associated with high-latitude abrupt climate forcing over the past two glacial-interglacial cycles, including millennial-scale events not previously identified. Rapid changes towards more humid conditions in eastern South Africa as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling were potentially driven by a combination of warming in the Agulhas Current and shifts of the subtropical anticyclones. These climate oscillations appear coherent with other Southern Hemisphere records but are anti-phased with respect to the East Asian Monsoon. Numerical modelling results reveal that higher precipitation in the KwaZulu-Natal province during precession maxima is driven by a combination of increased local evaporation and elevated moisture transport into eastern South Africa from the coast of Mozambique.

Eastern South African hydroclimate over the past 270,000 years

PubMed Central

Simon, Margit H.; Ziegler, Martin; Bosmans, Joyce; Barker, Stephen; Reason, Chris J.C.; Hall, Ian R.

2015-01-01

Processes that control the hydrological balance in eastern South Africa on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood because proxy records documenting its variability at high resolution are scarce. In this work, we present a detailed 270,000 year-long record of terrestrial climate variability in the KwaZulu-Natal province based on elemental ratios of Fe/K from the southwest Indian Ocean, derived from X-ray fluorescence core scanning. Eastern South African climate variability on these time scales reflects both the long-term effect of regional insolation changes driven by orbital precession and the effects associated with high-latitude abrupt climate forcing over the past two glacial-interglacial cycles, including millennial-scale events not previously identified. Rapid changes towards more humid conditions in eastern South Africa as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling were potentially driven by a combination of warming in the Agulhas Current and shifts of the subtropical anticyclones. These climate oscillations appear coherent with other Southern Hemisphere records but are anti-phased with respect to the East Asian Monsoon. Numerical modelling results reveal that higher precipitation in the KwaZulu-Natal province during precession maxima is driven by a combination of increased local evaporation and elevated moisture transport into eastern South Africa from the coast of Mozambique. PMID:26686943

Land use regression models for the oxidative potential of fine particles (PM2.5) in five European areas.

PubMed

Gulliver, John; Morley, David; Dunster, Chrissi; McCrea, Adrienne; van Nunen, Erik; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Probst-Hensch, Nicoltae; Eeftens, Marloes; Imboden, Medea; Ducret-Stich, Regina; Naccarati, Alessio; Galassi, Claudia; Ranzi, Andrea; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Curto, Ariadna; Donaire-Gonzalez, David; Cirach, Marta; Vermeulen, Roel; Vineis, Paolo; Hoek, Gerard; Kelly, Frank J

2018-01-01

Oxidative potential (OP) of particulate matter (PM) is proposed as a biologically-relevant exposure metric for studies of air pollution and health. We aimed to evaluate the spatial variability of the OP of measured PM 2.5 using ascorbate (AA) and (reduced) glutathione (GSH), and develop land use regression (LUR) models to explain this spatial variability. We estimated annual average values (m -3 ) of OP AA and OP GSH for five areas (Basel, CH; Catalonia, ES; London-Oxford, UK (no OP GSH ); the Netherlands; and Turin, IT) using PM 2.5 filters. OP AA and OP GSH LUR models were developed using all monitoring sites, separately for each area and combined-areas. The same variables were then used in repeated sub-sampling of monitoring sites to test sensitivity of variable selection; new variables were offered where variables were excluded (p > .1). On average, measurements of OP AA and OP GSH were moderately correlated (maximum Pearson's maximum Pearson's R = = .7) with PM 2.5 and other metrics (PM 2.5 absorbance, NO 2 , Cu, Fe). HOV (hold-out validation) R 2 for OP AA models was .21, .58, .45, .53, and .13 for Basel, Catalonia, London-Oxford, the Netherlands and Turin respectively. For OP GSH , the only model achieving at least moderate performance was for the Netherlands (R 2 = .31). Combined models for OP AA and OP GSH were largely explained by study area with weak local predictors of intra-area contrasts; we therefore do not endorse them for use in epidemiologic studies. Given the moderate correlation of OP AA with other pollutants, the three reasonably performing LUR models for OP AA could be used independently of other pollutant metrics in epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Local Infrasound Variability Related to In Situ Atmospheric Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Keehoon; Rodgers, Arthur; Seastrand, Douglas

2018-04-01

Local infrasound is widely used to constrain source parameters of near-surface events (e.g., chemical explosions and volcanic eruptions). While atmospheric conditions are critical to infrasound propagation and source parameter inversion, local atmospheric variability is often ignored by assuming homogeneous atmospheres, and their impact on the source inversion uncertainty has never been accounted for due to the lack of quantitative understanding of infrasound variability. We investigate atmospheric impacts on local infrasound propagation by repeated explosion experiments with a dense acoustic network and in situ atmospheric measurement. We perform full 3-D waveform simulations with local atmospheric data and numerical weather forecast model to quantify atmosphere-dependent infrasound variability and address the advantage and restriction of local weather data/numerical weather model for sound propagation simulation. Numerical simulations with stochastic atmosphere models also showed nonnegligible influence of atmospheric heterogeneity on infrasound amplitude, suggesting an important role of local turbulence.

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

2015-12-01

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Spatially variable risk factors for malaria in a geographically heterogeneous landscape, western Kenya: an explorative study.

PubMed

Homan, Tobias; Maire, Nicolas; Hiscox, Alexandra; Di Pasquale, Aurelio; Kiche, Ibrahim; Onoka, Kelvin; Mweresa, Collins; Mukabana, Wolfgang R; Ross, Amanda; Smith, Thomas A; Takken, Willem

2016-01-04

Large reductions in malaria transmission and mortality have been achieved over the last decade, and this has mainly been attributed to the scale-up of long-lasting insecticidal bed nets and indoor residual spraying with insecticides. Despite these gains considerable residual, spatially heterogeneous, transmission remains. To reduce transmission in these foci, researchers need to consider the local demographical, environmental and social context, and design an appropriate set of interventions. Exploring spatially variable risk factors for malaria can give insight into which human and environmental characteristics play important roles in sustaining malaria transmission. On Rusinga Island, western Kenya, malaria infection was tested by rapid diagnostic tests during two cross-sectional surveys conducted 3 months apart in 3632 individuals from 790 households. For all households demographic data were collected by means of questionnaires. Environmental variables were derived using Quickbird satellite images. Analyses were performed on 81 project clusters constructed by a traveling salesman algorithm, each containing 50-51 households. A standard linear regression model was fitted containing multiple variables to determine how much of the spatial variation in malaria prevalence could be explained by the demographic and environmental data. Subsequently, a geographically-weighted regression (GWR) was performed assuming non-stationarity of risk factors. Special attention was taken to investigate the effect of residual spatial autocorrelation and local multicollinearity. Combining the data from both surveys, overall malaria prevalence was 24%. Scan statistics revealed two clusters which had significantly elevated numbers of malaria cases compared to the background prevalence across the rest of the study area. A multivariable linear model including environmental and household factors revealed that higher socioeconomic status, outdoor occupation and population density were associated with increased malaria risk. The local GWR model improved the model fit considerably and the relationship of malaria with risk factors was found to vary spatially over the island; in different areas of the island socio-economic status, outdoor occupation and population density were found to be positively or negatively associated with malaria prevalence. Identification of risk factors for malaria that vary geographically can provide insight into the local epidemiology of malaria. Examining spatially variable relationships can be a helpful tool in exploring which set of targeted interventions could locally be implemented. Supplementary malaria control may be directed at areas, which are identified as at risk. For instance, areas with many people that work outdoors at night may need more focus in terms of vector control. Trialregister.nl NTR3496-SolarMal, registered on 20 June 2012.

Correlation Between Fracture Network Properties and Stress Variability in Geological Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Qinghua; Gao, Ke

2018-05-01

We quantitatively investigate the stress variability in fractured geological media under tectonic stresses. The fracture systems studied include synthetic fracture networks following power law length scaling and natural fracture patterns based on outcrop mapping. The stress field is derived from a finite-discrete element model, and its variability is analyzed using a set of mathematical formulations that honor the tensorial nature of stress data. We show that local stress perturbation, quantified by the Euclidean distance of a local stress tensor to the mean stress tensor, has a positive, linear correlation with local fracture intensity, defined as the total fracture length per unit area within a local sampling window. We also evaluate the stress dispersion of the entire stress field using the effective variance, that is, a scalar-valued measure of the overall stress variability. The results show that a well-connected fracture system under a critically stressed state exhibits strong local and global stress variabilities.

Objective assessment of the compensatory effect of clinical hind limb lameness in horses: 37 cases (2011-2014).

PubMed

Maliye, Sylvia; Marshall, John F

2016-10-15

OBJECTIVE To characterize and describe the compensatory load redistribution that results from unilateral hind limb lameness in horses. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS 37 client-owned horses. PROCEDURES Medical records were reviewed to identify horses with unilateral hind limb lameness that responded positively (by objective assessment) to diagnostic local anesthesia during lameness evaluation and that were evaluated before and after diagnostic local anesthesia with an inertial sensor-based lameness diagnosis system. Horses were grouped as having hind limb lameness only, hind limb and ipsilateral forelimb lameness, or hind limb and contralateral forelimb lameness. Measures of head and pelvic movement asymmetry before (baseline) and after diagnostic local anesthesia were compared. The effect of group on baseline pelvic movement asymmetry variables was analyzed statistically. RESULTS Maximum pelvic height significantly decreased from the baseline value after diagnostic local anesthesia in each of the 3 lameness groups and in all horses combined. Minimum pelvic height significantly decreased after the procedure in all groups except the hind limb and contralateral forelimb lameness group. Head movement asymmetry was significantly decreased after diagnostic local anesthesia for horses with hind limb and ipsilateral forelimb lameness and for all horses combined, but not for those with hind limb lameness only or those with hind limb and contralateral forelimb lameness. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results supported that hind limb lameness can cause compensatory load redistribution evidenced as ipsilateral forelimb lameness. In this population of horses, contralateral forelimb lameness was not compensatory and likely reflected true lameness. Further studies are needed to investigate the source of the contralateral forelimb lameness in such horses.

Hydrodynamic trapping in the Cretaceous Nahr Umr lower sand of the North Area, Offshore Qatar

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wells, P.R.A.

A hydrodynamic model is described to account for oil and gas occurrences in the Cretaceous of offshore Qatar, in the Arabian Gulf. Variable and inconsistent fluid levels and variable formation water potentials and salinities cannot be explained by combinations of stratigraphic and structural trapping. Indeed, there is no structural closure to the southwest of the oil and gas accumulations. The water-potential and salinity data and oil distribution are consistent with this model and indicate that a vigorous hydrodynamic system pervades the Cretaceous of the Arabian Gulf region. Extensive upward cross-formational discharge is taking place in the North Area. This cross-formationmore » water flow could be partly responsible for localized leaching and reservoir enhancement in the chalky limestones.« less

A Data Centred Method to Estimate and Map Changes in the Full Distribution of Daily Precipitation and Its Exceedances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2014-12-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles or thresholds in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by 'heavy tailed' distributed variables such as daily precipitation. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those extreme precipitation days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results identify regionally consistent patterns which, dependent on location, show systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, shifts in precipitation patterns to less moderate days and more heavy days, and drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock et al. 2008 J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

Multi-dimensionality and variability in folk classification of stingless bees (Apidae: Meliponini).

PubMed

Zamudio, Fernando; Hilgert, Norma I

2015-05-23

Not long ago Eugene Hunn suggested using a combination of cognitive, linguistic, ecological and evolutionary theories in order to account for the dynamic character of ethnoecology in the study of folk classification systems. In this way he intended to question certain homogeneity in folk classifications models and deepen in the analysis and interpretation of variability in folk classifications. This paper studies how a rural culturally mixed population of the Atlantic Forest of Misiones (Argentina) classified honey-producing stingless bees according to the linguistic, cognitive and ecological dimensions of folk classification. We also analyze the socio-ecological meaning of binomialization in naming and the meaning of general local variability in the appointment of stingless bees. We used three different approaches: the classical approach developed by Brent Berlin which relies heavily on linguistic criteria, the approach developed by Eleonor Rosch which relies on psychological (cognitive) principles of categorization and finally we have captured the ecological dimension of folk classification in local narratives. For the second approximation, we developed ways of measuring the degree of prototypicality based on a total of 107 comparisons of the type "X is similar to Y" identified in personal narratives. Various logical and grouping strategies coexist and were identified as: graded of lateral linkage, hierarchical and functional. Similarity judgments among folk taxa resulted in an implicit logic of classification graded according to taxa's prototypicality. While there is a high agreement on naming stingless bees with monomial names, a considerable number of underrepresented binomial names and lack of names were observed. Two possible explanations about reported local naming variability are presented. We support the multidimensionality of folk classification systems. This confirms the specificity of local classification systems but also reflects the use of grouping strategies and mechanisms commonly observed in other cultural groups, such as the use of similarity judgments between more or less prototypical organisms. Also we support the idea that alternative naming results from a process of fragmentation of knowledge or incomplete transmission of knowledge. These processes lean on the facts that culturally based knowledge, on the one hand, and biologic knowledge of nature on the other, can be acquired through different learning pathways.

User-based representation of time-resolved multimodal public transportation networks.

PubMed

Alessandretti, Laura; Karsai, Márton; Gauvin, Laetitia

2016-07-01

Multimodal transportation systems, with several coexisting services like bus, tram and metro, can be represented as time-resolved multilayer networks where the different transportation modes connecting the same set of nodes are associated with distinct network layers. Their quantitative description became possible recently due to openly accessible datasets describing the geo-localized transportation dynamics of large urban areas. Advancements call for novel analytics, which combines earlier established methods and exploits the inherent complexity of the data. Here, we provide a novel user-based representation of public transportation systems, which combines representations, accounting for the presence of multiple lines and reducing the effect of spatial embeddedness, while considering the total travel time, its variability across the schedule, and taking into account the number of transfers necessary. After the adjustment of earlier techniques to the novel representation framework, we analyse the public transportation systems of several French municipal areas and identify hidden patterns of privileged connections. Furthermore, we study their efficiency as compared to the commuting flow. The proposed representation could help to enhance resilience of local transportation systems to provide better design policies for future developments.

User-based representation of time-resolved multimodal public transportation networks

PubMed Central

Alessandretti, Laura; Gauvin, Laetitia

2016-01-01

Multimodal transportation systems, with several coexisting services like bus, tram and metro, can be represented as time-resolved multilayer networks where the different transportation modes connecting the same set of nodes are associated with distinct network layers. Their quantitative description became possible recently due to openly accessible datasets describing the geo-localized transportation dynamics of large urban areas. Advancements call for novel analytics, which combines earlier established methods and exploits the inherent complexity of the data. Here, we provide a novel user-based representation of public transportation systems, which combines representations, accounting for the presence of multiple lines and reducing the effect of spatial embeddedness, while considering the total travel time, its variability across the schedule, and taking into account the number of transfers necessary. After the adjustment of earlier techniques to the novel representation framework, we analyse the public transportation systems of several French municipal areas and identify hidden patterns of privileged connections. Furthermore, we study their efficiency as compared to the commuting flow. The proposed representation could help to enhance resilience of local transportation systems to provide better design policies for future developments. PMID:27493773

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

Two Back Stress Hardening Models in Rate Independent Rigid Plastic Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Su-Jin

In the present work, the constitutive relations based on the combination of two back stresses are developed using the Armstrong-Frederick, Phillips and Ziegler’s type hardening rules. Various evolutions of the kinematic hardening parameter can be obtained by means of a simple combination of back stress rate using the rule of mixtures. Thus, a wide range of plastic deformation behavior can be depicted depending on the dominant back stress evolution. The ultimate back stress is also determined for the present combined kinematic hardening models. Since a kinematic hardening rule is assumed in the finite deformation regime, the stress rate is co-rotated with respect to the spin of substructure obtained by incorporating the plastic spin concept. A comparison of the various co-rotational rates is also included. Assuming rigid plasticity, the continuum body consists of the elastic deformation zone and the plastic deformation zone to form a hybrid finite element formulation. Then, the plastic deformation behavior is investigated under various loading conditions with an assumption of the J2 deformation theory. The plastic deformation localization turns out to be strongly dependent on the description of back stress evolution and its associated hardening parameters. The analysis for the shear deformation with fixed boundaries is carried out to examine the deformation localization behavior and the evolution of state variables.

Distribution, abundance, and diversity of stream fishes under variable environmental conditions

Treesearch

Christopher M. Taylor; Thomas L. Holder; Richard A. Fiorillo; Lance R. Williams; R. Brent Thomas; Melvin L. Warren

2006-01-01

The effects of stream size and flow regime on spatial and temporal variability of stream fish distribution, abundance, and diversity patterns were investigated. Assemblage variability and species richness were each significantly associated with a complex environmental gradient contrasting smaller, hydrologically variable stream localities with larger localities...

Spatiotemporal variability in wildfire patterns and analysis of the main drivers in Honduras using GIS and MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdez Vasquez, M. C.; Chen, C. F.

2017-12-01

Wildfires are unrestrained fires in an area of flammable vegetation and they are one of the most frequent disasters in Honduras during the dry season. During this period, anthropogenic activity combined with the harsh climatic conditions, dry vegetation and topographical variables, cause a large amount of wildfires. For this reason, there is a need to identify the drivers of wildfires and their susceptibility variations during the wildfire season. In this study, we combined the wildfire points during the 2010-2016 period every 8 days with a series of variables using the random forest (RF) algorithm. In addition to the wildfire points, we randomly generated a similar amount of background points that we use as pseudo-absence data. To represent the human imprint, we included proximity to different types of roads, trails, settlements and agriculture sites. Other variables included are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectra-radiometer (MODIS)-derived 8-day composites of land surface temperature (LST) and the normalized multi-band drought index (NMDI), derived from the MODIS surface reflectance data. We also included monthly average precipitation, solar radiation, and topographical variables. The exploratory analysis of the variables reveals that low precipitation combined with the low NMDI and accessibility to non-paved roads were the major drivers of wildfires during the early months of the dry season. During April, which is the peak of the dry season, the explanatory variables of relevance also included elevation and LST in addition to the proximity to paved and non-paved roads. During May, proximity to crops becomes relevant, in addition to the aforesaid variables. The average estimated area with high and very high wildfire susceptibility was 22% of the whole territory located mainly in the central and eastern regions, drifting towards the northeast areas during May. We validated the results using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for each 8-day period, and the average AUC acquired was acceptable using an independent test data. We suggest that the 8-day frequency spatiotemporal mapping of wildfire patterns and the identification of the most relevant drivers can lead to localized prevention and control actions in specific time-frames in areas of high wildfire susceptibility.

Procedures for adjusting regional regression models of urban-runoff quality using local data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, A.B.; Sisolak, J.K.

1993-01-01

Statistical operations termed model-adjustment procedures (MAP?s) can be used to incorporate local data into existing regression models to improve the prediction of urban-runoff quality. Each MAP is a form of regression analysis in which the local data base is used as a calibration data set. Regression coefficients are determined from the local data base, and the resulting `adjusted? regression models can then be used to predict storm-runoff quality at unmonitored sites. The response variable in the regression analyses is the observed load or mean concentration of a constituent in storm runoff for a single storm. The set of explanatory variables used in the regression analyses is different for each MAP, but always includes the predicted value of load or mean concentration from a regional regression model. The four MAP?s examined in this study were: single-factor regression against the regional model prediction, P, (termed MAP-lF-P), regression against P,, (termed MAP-R-P), regression against P, and additional local variables (termed MAP-R-P+nV), and a weighted combination of P, and a local-regression prediction (termed MAP-W). The procedures were tested by means of split-sample analysis, using data from three cities included in the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program: Denver, Colorado; Bellevue, Washington; and Knoxville, Tennessee. The MAP that provided the greatest predictive accuracy for the verification data set differed among the three test data bases and among model types (MAP-W for Denver and Knoxville, MAP-lF-P and MAP-R-P for Bellevue load models, and MAP-R-P+nV for Bellevue concentration models) and, in many cases, was not clearly indicated by the values of standard error of estimate for the calibration data set. A scheme to guide MAP selection, based on exploratory data analysis of the calibration data set, is presented and tested. The MAP?s were tested for sensitivity to the size of a calibration data set. As expected, predictive accuracy of all MAP?s for the verification data set decreased as the calibration data-set size decreased, but predictive accuracy was not as sensitive for the MAP?s as it was for the local regression models.

An observationally centred method to quantify local climate change as a distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

For planning and adaptation, guidance on trends in local climate is needed at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This requires quantifying trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. These non-normal distributions vary both geographically and in time. The trends in the relevant quantiles may not simply follow the trend in the distribution mean. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs how the trend or sensitivity varies with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. These sensitivities are found to be geographically varying across Europe; as one would expect given the different influences on local climate between, say, Western Scotland and central Italy. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Water Vapor in the Free Troposphere Investigated by Dial and Ftir Vertical Soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogelmann, H.; Sussmann, R.; Trickl, T.; Reichert, A.

2016-06-01

We report on the free tropospheric spatio-temporal variability of water vapor investigated by the analysis of a five-year period of water vapor vertical soundings above Mt. Zugspitze (2962 m a.s.l., Germany). Our results are obtained from a combination of measurements of vertically integrated water vapor (IWV), recorded with a solar Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometer and of water vapor profiles recorded with the nearby differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The special geometrical arrangement of one zenith-viewing and one sun-pointing instrument and the temporal resolution of both optical instruments allow for an investigation of the spatio-temporal variability of IWV on a spatial scale of less than one kilometer and on a time scale of less than one hour. We investigated the short-term variability of both IWV and water vapor profiles from statistical analyses. The latter was also examined by case studies with a clear assignment to certain atmospheric processes as local convection or long-range transport. This study is described in great detail in our recent publication [1].

A new design approach based on differential evolution algorithm for geometric optimization of magnetorheological brakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le-Duc, Thang; Ho-Huu, Vinh; Nguyen-Thoi, Trung; Nguyen-Quoc, Hung

2016-12-01

In recent years, various types of magnetorheological brakes (MRBs) have been proposed and optimized by different optimization algorithms that are integrated in commercial software such as ANSYS and Comsol Multiphysics. However, many of these optimization algorithms often possess some noteworthy shortcomings such as the trap of solutions at local extremes, or the limited number of design variables or the difficulty of dealing with discrete design variables. Thus, to overcome these limitations and develop an efficient computation tool for optimal design of the MRBs, an optimization procedure that combines differential evolution (DE), a gradient-free global optimization method with finite element analysis (FEA) is proposed in this paper. The proposed approach is then applied to the optimal design of MRBs with different configurations including conventional MRBs and MRBs with coils placed on the side housings. Moreover, to approach a real-life design, some necessary design variables of MRBs are considered as discrete variables in the optimization process. The obtained optimal design results are compared with those of available optimal designs in the literature. The results reveal that the proposed method outperforms some traditional approaches.

Flooding dynamics on the lower Amazon floodplain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudorff, C.; Melack, J. M.; Bates, P. D.

2013-05-01

We analyzed flooding dynamics of a large floodplain lake in the lower reach of the Amazon River for the period between 1995 through 2010. Floodplain inundation was simulated using the LISFLOOD-FP model, which combines one-dimensional river routing with two-dimensional overland flow, and a local hydrological model. Accurate representation of floodplain flows and inundation extent depends on the quality of the digital elevation model (DEM). We combined digital topography (derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) with extensive floodplain echo-sounding data to generate a hydraulically sound DEM. Analysis of daily water balances revealed that the dominant source of inflow alternated seasonally among direct rain and local runoff (October through January), Amazon River (March through August), and seepage (September). As inflows from the Amazon River increase during the rising limb of the hydrograph, regional floodwaters encounter the floodplain partially inundated from local hydrological inputs. At peak flow the floodplain routes, on average, 2.5% of the total discharge for this reach. The falling limb of the hydrograph coincides with the locally dry period, allowing seepage of water stored in sediments to become a dominant source. The average annual inflow from the Amazon River was 58.8 km3 (SD = 33.5), representing more than three thirds (80%) of inputs from all sources, with substantial inter-annual variability. The average annual net export of water from the floodplain to the Amazon River was 7.9 km3 (SD = 2.7).

Quantification of Urban Environment's Role in Slope Stability for Landslide Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozzolan, E.; Holcombe, E.; Wagener, T.; Pianosi, F.

2017-12-01

The combination of a rapid and unplanned urban development with a likely future climate change could significantly affect landslide occurrences in the humid tropics, where rainfall events of high intensity and duration are the dominant trigger for landslide risk. The attention of current landslide hazard studies is largely focussed on natural slope processes based on combinations of environmental factors, excluding the role of urbanisation on slope stability. This project aims to understand the relative influence of urbanisation features on local slope stability and to translate the findings to a wider region. Individual slopes are firstly analysed with the software CHASM, a physically based model which combines soil hydrology and slope stability assessment. Instead of relying on existing records, generally lacking for landslides, ranges of plausible preparatory (such as slope, cohesion, friction angles), triggering (rainfall) and aggravating factors (deforestation, house density and water network) are defined and possible combinations of these factors are created by sampling from those ranges. The influence of urban features on site hydrology and stability mechanisms are evaluated and then implemented in denser urban contexts, characteristic of unplanned settlements. The results of CHASMS can be transferred to regional maps in order to identify the areas belonging to the triggering combinations of factors previously found. In this way, areas susceptible to landslides can be detected not only in terms of natural factors but also in relation to the degree of urbanisation. Realistic scenarios can be extrapolated from the areas considered and then analysed again with CHASM. This permits to adapt (and improve) the initial variability ranges of the factors, creating a general-specific cycle able to identify the landslide susceptibility regions and outline a hazard map. Once the triggers are understood, possible consequences can be assessed and mitigation strategies can be evaluated. The ability to define local urban rainfall threshold for landslide slope stability helps the decision-making process to prioritize the areas of interest and locally define the main causes of instability.

Variable Selection for Road Segmentation in Aerial Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warnke, S.; Bulatov, D.

2017-05-01

For extraction of road pixels from combined image and elevation data, Wegner et al. (2015) proposed classification of superpixels into road and non-road, after which a refinement of the classification results using minimum cost paths and non-local optimization methods took place. We believed that the variable set used for classification was to a certain extent suboptimal, because many variables were redundant while several features known as useful in Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing are missed. This motivated us to implement a variable selection approach which builds a model for classification using portions of training data and subsets of features, evaluates this model, updates the feature set, and terminates when a stopping criterion is satisfied. The choice of classifier is flexible; however, we tested the approach with Logistic Regression and Random Forests, and taylored the evaluation module to the chosen classifier. To guarantee a fair comparison, we kept the segment-based approach and most of the variables from the related work, but we extended them by additional, mostly higher-level features. Applying these superior features, removing the redundant ones, as well as using more accurately acquired 3D data allowed to keep stable or even to reduce the misclassification error in a challenging dataset.

Local adaptation despite high gene flow in the waterfall-climbing Hawaiian goby, Sicyopterus stimpsoni.

PubMed

Moody, K N; Hunter, S N; Childress, M J; Blob, R W; Schoenfuss, H L; Blum, M J; Ptacek, M B

2015-02-01

Environmental heterogeneity can promote the emergence of locally adapted phenotypes among subpopulations of a species, whereas gene flow can result in phenotypic and genotypic homogenization. For organisms like amphidromous fishes that change habitats during their life history, the balance between selection and migration can shift through ontogeny, making the likelihood of local adaptation difficult to predict. In Hawaiian waterfall-climbing gobies, it has been hypothesized that larval mixing during oceanic dispersal counters local adaptation to contrasting topographic features of streams, like slope gradient, that can select for predator avoidance or climbing ability in juvenile recruits. To test this hypothesis, we used morphological traits and neutral genetic markers to compare phenotypic and genotypic distributions in recruiting juveniles and adult subpopulations of the waterfall-climbing amphidromous goby, Sicyopterus stimpsoni, from the islands of Hawai'i and Kaua'i. We found that body shape is significantly different between adult subpopulations from streams with contrasting slopes and that trait divergence in recruiting juveniles tracked stream topography more so than morphological measures of adult subpopulation differentiation. Although no evidence of population genetic differentiation was observed among adult subpopulations, we observed low but significant levels of spatially and temporally variable genetic differentiation among juvenile cohorts, which correlated with morphological divergence. Such a pattern of genetic differentiation is consistent with chaotic genetic patchiness arising from variable sources of recruits to different streams. Thus, at least in S. stimpsoni, the combination of variation in settlement cohorts in space and time coupled with strong postsettlement selection on juveniles as they migrate upstream to adult habitats provides the opportunity for morphological adaptation to local stream environments despite high gene flow. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Design, innovation, and rural creative places: Are the arts the cherry on top, or the secret sauce?

PubMed

Wojan, Timothy R; Nichols, Bonnie

2018-01-01

Creative class theory explains the positive relationship between the arts and commercial innovation as the mutual attraction of artists and other creative workers by an unobserved creative milieu. This study explores alternative theories for rural settings, by analyzing establishment-level survey data combined with data on the local arts scene. The study identifies the local contextual factors associated with a strong design orientation, and estimates the impact that a strong design orientation has on the local economy. Data on innovation and design come from a nationally representative sample of establishments in tradable industries. Latent class analysis allows identifying unobserved subpopulations comprised of establishments with different design and innovation orientations. Logistic regression allows estimating the association between an establishment's design orientation and local contextual factors. A quantile instrumental variable regression allows assessing the robustness of the logistic regression results with respect to endogeneity. An estimate of design orientation at the local level derived from the survey is used to examine variation in economic performance during the period of recovery from the Great Recession (2010-2014). Three distinct innovation (substantive, nominal, and non-innovators) and design orientations (design-integrated, "design last finish," and no systematic approach to design) are identified. Innovation- and design-intensive establishments were identified in both rural and urban areas. Rural design-integrated establishments tended to locate in counties with more highly educated workforces and containing at least one performing arts organization. A quantile instrumental variable regression confirmed that the logistic regression result is robust to endogeneity concerns. Finally, rural areas characterized by design-integrated establishments experienced faster growth in wages relative to rural areas characterized by establishments using no systematic approach to design.

Design, innovation, and rural creative places: Are the arts the cherry on top, or the secret sauce?

PubMed Central

Nichols, Bonnie

2018-01-01

Objective Creative class theory explains the positive relationship between the arts and commercial innovation as the mutual attraction of artists and other creative workers by an unobserved creative milieu. This study explores alternative theories for rural settings, by analyzing establishment-level survey data combined with data on the local arts scene. The study identifies the local contextual factors associated with a strong design orientation, and estimates the impact that a strong design orientation has on the local economy. Method Data on innovation and design come from a nationally representative sample of establishments in tradable industries. Latent class analysis allows identifying unobserved subpopulations comprised of establishments with different design and innovation orientations. Logistic regression allows estimating the association between an establishment’s design orientation and local contextual factors. A quantile instrumental variable regression allows assessing the robustness of the logistic regression results with respect to endogeneity. An estimate of design orientation at the local level derived from the survey is used to examine variation in economic performance during the period of recovery from the Great Recession (2010–2014). Results Three distinct innovation (substantive, nominal, and non-innovators) and design orientations (design-integrated, “design last finish,” and no systematic approach to design) are identified. Innovation- and design-intensive establishments were identified in both rural and urban areas. Rural design-integrated establishments tended to locate in counties with more highly educated workforces and containing at least one performing arts organization. A quantile instrumental variable regression confirmed that the logistic regression result is robust to endogeneity concerns. Finally, rural areas characterized by design-integrated establishments experienced faster growth in wages relative to rural areas characterized by establishments using no systematic approach to design. PMID:29489884

Spatial variability of mercury wet deposition in eastern Ohio: summertime meteorological case study analysis of local source influences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emily M. White; Gerald J. Keeler; Matthew S. Landis

2009-07-01

Extensive exploration of event precipitation data in the Ohio River Valley indicates that coal combustion emissions play an important role in mercury (Hg) wet deposition. During July-September 2006, an intensive study was undertaken to discern the degree of local source influence. Source-receptor relationships were explored by establishing a set of wet deposition sites in and around Steubenville, Ohio. For the three month period of study, volume-weighted mean Hg concentrations observed at the eight sites ranged from 10.2 to 22.3 ng L{sup -1}, but this range increased drastically on an event basis with a maximum concentration of 89.4 ng L{sup -1}more » and a minimum concentration of 4.1 ng L{sup -1}. A subset of events was explored in depth, and the degree of variability in Hg concentrations between sites was linked to the degree of local source enhancement. Samples collected at sites less than 1 km from coal-fired utility stacks (near-field) exhibited up to 72% enhancement in Hg concentrations over regionally representative samples on an event basis. Air mass transport and precipitating cell histories were traced in order to evaluate relationships between local point sources and receptor sites. It was found that the interaction of several dynamic atmospheric parameters combined to favor local Hg concentration enhancement over the more regional contribution. When significant meteorological factors (wind speed at time of maximum rain rate, wind speed 24 h prior to precipitation, mixing height, and observed ceiling) were explored, it was estimated that during summertime precipitation, 42% of Hg concentration in near-field samples could be attributed to the adjacent coal-fired utility source. 28 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Variability of tornado occurrence over the continental United States since 1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Li; Wang, Kaicun; Bluestein, Howard B.

2016-06-01

The United States experiences the most tornadoes of any country in the world. Given the catastrophic impact of tornadoes, concern has arisen regarding the variation in climatology of U.S. tornadoes under the changing climate. A recent study claimed that the temporal variability of tornado occurrence over the continental U.S. has increased since the 1970s. However, that study ignored the highly regionalized climatology of U.S. tornadoes. To address this issue, we examined the long-term trend of tornado temporal variability in each continental U.S. state. Based on the 64 year tornado records (1950-2013), we found that the trends in tornado temporal variability varied across the U.S., with only one third of the continental area or three out of 10 contiguous states (mostly from the Great Plains and Southeast, but where the frequency of occurrence of tornadoes is greater) displaying a significantly increasing trend. The other two-thirds area, where 60% of the U.S. tornadoes were reported (but the frequency of occurrence of tornadoes is less), however, showed a decreasing or a near-zero trend in tornado temporal variability. Furthermore, unlike the temporal variability alone, the combined spatial-temporal variability of U.S. tornado occurrence has remained nearly constant since 1950. Such detailed information on the climatological variability of U.S. tornadoes refines the claim of previous study and can be helpful for local mitigation efforts toward future tornado risks.

Spatiotemporal variability of biogenic terpenoid emissions in Pearl River Delta, China, with high-resolution land-cover and meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xuemei; Situ, Shuping; Guenther, Alex; Chen, Fei; Wu, Zhiyong; Xia, Beicheng; Wang, Tijian

2011-04-01

This study intended to provide 4-km gridded, hourly, year-long, regional estimates of terpenoid emissions in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. It combined Thematic Mapper images and local-survey data to characterize plant functional types, and used observed emission potential of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) from local plant species and high-resolution meteorological outputs from the MM5 model to constrain the MEGAN BVOC-emission model. The estimated annual emissions for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene are 95.55 × 106 kg C, 117.35 × 106 kg C and 9.77 × 106 kg C, respectively. The results show strong variabilities of terpenoid emissions spanning diurnal and seasonal time scales, which are mainly distributed in the remote areas (with more vegetation and less economic development) in PRD. Using MODIS PFTs data reduced terpenoid emissions by 27% in remote areas. Using MEGAN-model default emission factors led to a 24% increase in BVOC emission. The model errors of temperature and radiation in MM5 output were used to assess impacts of uncertainties in meteorological forcing on emissions: increasing (decreasing) temperature and downward shortwave radiation produces more (less) terpenoid emissions for July and January. Strong temporal variability of terpenoid emissions leads to enhanced ozone formation during midday in rural areas where the anthropogenic VOC emissions are limited.

Application of hierarchical clustering method to classify of space-time rainfall patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chang, Tu-Je

2010-05-01

Understanding the local precipitation patterns is essential to the water resources management and flooding mitigation. The precipitation patterns can vary in space and time depending upon the factors from different spatial scales such as local topological changes and macroscopic atmospheric circulation. The spatiotemporal variation of precipitation in Taiwan is significant due to its complex terrain and its location at west pacific and subtropical area, where is the boundary between the pacific ocean and Asia continent with the complex interactions among the climatic processes. This study characterizes local-scale precipitation patterns by classifying the historical space-time precipitation records. We applied the hierarchical ascending clustering method to analyze the precipitation records from 1960 to 2008 at the six rainfall stations located in Lan-yang catchment at the northeast of the island. Our results identify the four primary space-time precipitation types which may result from distinct driving forces from the changes of atmospheric variables and topology at different space-time scales. This study also presents an important application of the statistical downscaling to combine large-scale upper-air circulation with local space-time precipitation patterns.

Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Runhua; Cohn, Stephen E.; daSilva, Arlindo; Joiner, Joanna; Houser, Paul R.

1997-01-01

The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface variables are predicted imperfectly due to inherent uncertainties in the modeling process, our study suggests how satellite observations can be combined with the model, through land surface data assimilation, to improve their prediction.

Variability and bias between magnetoencephalography systems in non-invasive localization of the primary somatosensory cortex.

PubMed

Bardouille, Timothy; Power, Lindsey; Lalancette, Marc; Bishop, Ronald; Beyea, Steven; Taylor, Margot J; Dunkley, Benjamin T

2018-05-26

Magnetoencephalography (MEG) provides functional neuroimaging data for pre-surgical planning in patients with epilepsy or brain tumour. For mapping the primary somatosensory cortex (S1), MEG data are acquired while a patient undergoes median nerve stimulation (MNS) to localize components of the somatosensory evoked field (SEF). In clinical settings, only one MEG imaging session is usually possible due to limited resources. As such, it is important to have an a priori estimate of the expected variability in localization. Variability in S1 localization between mapping sessions using the same MEG system has been previously measured as 8 mm. There are different types of MEG systems available with varied hardware and software, and it is not known how using a different MEG system will impact on S1 localization. In our study, healthy participants underwent the MNS procedure with two different MEG systems (Vector View and CTF). We compared the location, amplitude and latency of SEF components between data from each system to quantify variability and bias between MEG systems. We found 8-11 mm variability in S1 localization between the two MEG systems, and no evidence for a systematic bias in location, amplitude or latency between the two systems. These findings suggest that S1 localization is not biased by the type of MEG system used, and that differences between the two systems are not a major contributor to variability in localization. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Local Hydrological effects in Membach, Belgium: influence on the long term gravity variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Camp, M.; Dassargues, A.; Vanneste, K.; Verbeeck, K.; Warnant, R.

2003-04-01

Absolute (AG) and superconducting (SG) gravity measurements have been performed since 1996 at the underground Membach Station (Ardenne, eastern Belgium). Two effects can be distinguished: one seasonal-like and a long-term geophysical trend. The first effect is a 5 µGal seasonal-like term due most probably and mainly to hydrological variations. To determine the thickness of the porous unconsolidated layer covering the fissured bed-rock (low-porosity argillaceous sandstone with quartzitic beds) through which the tunnel was excavated, geophysical prospecting has been undertaken above the Membach station. This shows that the thickness of the weathered zone covering the bedrock can be highly variable between zero and 10 meters (possibly due to palaeo mudflows linked to periglacial conditions in the area). This leads to highly variable (in space) saturation capacity of the subsoil above the gallery. The extensive geological researches will allow us to correct the gravity variations induced by the variable mass of water stored in the shallow partially saturated soil. This work can be essential to correct local effects that can mask regional effects such as changes in continental water storage. Local effects, indeed, could prevent the combination of satellite data (e.g. GRACE) with ground-based gravity measurements. On the other hand, studying the local seasonal variations also contributes to investigate the influence of the water storage variations in small river basins on the time dependent gravity field. The second effect is the detection of a very low geophysical trend in gravity of -0.5+/-0.1 µGal/year. The SG drift, the hydrological effects, and the origin of the low trend are discussed. In particular, we show a good correlation between the gravity measurements and the continuous GPS measurements being made since 1997 at 3 km from the station. Possible crustal deformations could be linked to active faults in the Ardenne and/or bordering the Roer Valley Graben, or perhaps linked to the Eifel plume.

Dying like rabbits: general determinants of spatio-temporal variability in survival.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy; Palomares, Francisco

2012-01-01

1. Identifying general patterns of how and why survival rates vary across space and time is necessary to truly understand population dynamics of a species. However, this is not an easy task given the complexity and interactions of processes involved, and the interpopulation differences in main survival determinants. 2. Here, using European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a model and information from local studies, we investigated whether we could make inferences about trends and drivers of survival of a species that are generalizable to large spatio-temporal scales. To do this, we first focused on overall survival and then examined cause-specific mortalities, mainly predation and diseases, which may lead to those patterns. 3. Our results show that within the large-scale variability in rabbit survival, there exist general patterns that are explained by the integration of factors previously known to be important at the local level (i.e. age, climate, diseases, predation or density dependence). We found that both inter- and intrastudy survival rates increased in magnitude and decreased in variability as rabbits grow old, although this tendency was less pronounced in populations with epidemic diseases. Some causes leading to these higher mortalities in young rabbits could be the stronger effect of rainfall at those ages, as well as, other death sources like malnutrition or infanticide. 4. Predation is also greater for newborns and juveniles, especially in population without diseases. Apart from the effect of diseases, predation patterns also depended on factors, such as, density, season, and type and density of predators. Finally, we observed that infectious diseases also showed general relationships with climate, breeding (i.e. new susceptible rabbits) and age, although the association type varied between myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease. 5. In conclusion, large-scale patterns of spatio-temporal variability in rabbit survival emerge from the combination of different factors that interrelate both directly and through density dependence. This highlights the importance of performing more comprehensive studies to reveal combined effects and complex relationships that help us to better understand the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Hydrological Responses of Andean Lakes and Tropical Floodplains to Climate Variability and Human Intervention: an Integrative Modelling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyos, I. C.; González Morales, C.; Serna López, J. P.; Duque, C. L.; Canon Barriga, J. E.; Dominguez, F.

2013-12-01

Andean water bodies in tropical regions are significantly influenced by fluctuations associated with climatic and anthropogenic drivers, which implies long term changes in mountain snow peaks, land covers and ecosystems, among others. Our work aims at providing an integrative framework to realistically assess the possible future of natural water bodies with different degrees of human intervention. We are studying in particular the evolution of three water bodies in Colombia: two Andean lakes and a floodplain wetland. These natural reservoirs represent the accumulated effect of hydrological processes in their respective basins, which exhibit different patterns of climate variability and distinct human intervention and environmental histories. Modelling the hydrological responses of these local water bodies to climate variability and human intervention require an understanding of the strong linkage between geophysical and social factors. From the geophysical perspective, the challenge is how to downscale global climate projections in the local context: complex orography and relative lack of data. To overcome this challenge we combine the correlational and physically based analysis of several sources of spatially distributed biophysical and meteorological information to accurately determine aspects such as moisture sources and sinks and past, present and future local precipitation and temperature regimes. From the social perspective, the challenge is how to adequately represent and incorporate into the models the likely response of social agents whose water-related interests are diverse and usually conflictive. To deal with the complexity of these systems we develop interaction matrices, which are useful tools to holistically discuss and represent each environment as a complex system. Our goal is to assess partially the uncertainties of the hydrological balances in these intervened water bodies we establish climate/social scenarios, using hybrid models that combine the computational power of numerical simulations (of both physical and social components) with interactive responses given by users who define strategies and make decisions in real time, providing valuable information about people's attitudes and choices regarding future climate perspectives. Part of our interest with this project is to effectively transfer the knowledge and scientific information gathered to the communities in a way that is useful and propositive. To this end we developed a website (http://peerlagoscolombia.udea.edu.co) that includes relevant information about the project outcomes. We also developed and installed telemetric hydrologic stations in each site, whose data on water storage levels and basic meteorological variables can be accessed online. Acknowledgement: this project is funded by the USAID-NSF PEER program (First cycle, project 31).

Annual variation in foraging ecology of prothonotary warblers during the breeding season

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petit, L.J.; Petit, D.R.; Petit, K.E.; Fleming, W.J.

1990-01-01

We studied foraging ecology of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea) along the Tennessee River in west-central Tennessee during the breeding seasons of 1984-1987. We analyzed seven foraging variables to determine if this population exhibited annual variation in foraging behavior. Based on nearly 3,000 foraging maneuvers, most variables showed significant interyear variation during the four prenestling and three nestling periods we studied. This interyear variation probably was due -to proximate, environmental cues--such as distribution and abundance of arthropods - which, in turn, were influenced by local weather conditions. Researchers should consider the consequences of combining foraging behavior data collected in different years, because resolution of ecological trends may be sacrificed by considering only general patterns of foraging ecology and not the dynamics of those activities. In addition, because of annual variability, foraging data collected in only one year, regardless of the number of observations gathered, may not provide an accurate concept of the foraging ecology in insectivorous birds.

[Paleoclimate of La Guajira, Colombia; by the growth rings of Capparis odoratissima (Capparidaceae)].

PubMed

Ramírez, Jorge Andrés; Ignacio del Valle, Jorge

2011-09-01

There is great concern about the effect of climate change in arid and subarid areas of the tropics. Climate change combined with other anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, fires and over-grazing can accelerate their degradation and, consequently, the increases in losses of biological and economic productivity. Climate models, both local and global, predict that rainfall in the arid Peninsula of La Guajira in the Colombian Caribbean would be reduced and temperature would be increased as a result of climate change. However, as there are only suitable climate records since 1972, it is not possible to verify if, indeed, this is happening. To try to verify the hypothesis of reducing rainfall and rising temperatures we developed a growth ring chronology of Capparis odoratissima in the Middle Peninsula of La Guajira with 17 trees and 45 series which attain 48 years back. We use standard dendrochronological methods that showed statistically significant linear relationship with local climatic variables such as air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), annual precipitation and wind speed; we also reach to successful relationship of the chronology with global climatic variables as the indices SOI and MEI of the ENSO phenomenon. The transfer functions estimated with the time series (1955 and 2003) do not showed statistically significant trends, indicating that during this period of time the annual precipitation or temperatures have not changed. The annual nature of C. odoratissima growth rings, the possibility of cross-dated among the samples of this species, and the high correlation with local and global climatic variables indicate a high potential of this species for dendrochronological studies in this part of the American continent.

Spatial variations in drainage efficiency in a boreal wetland environment as a function of lidar and radar-derived deviations from the regional hydraulic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkinson, C.; Brisco, B.; Chasmer, L.; Devito, K.; Montgomery, J. S.; Patterson, S.; Petrone, R. M.

2017-12-01

The dense forest cover of the Western Boreal Plains of northern Alberta is underlain by a mix of glacial moraines, sandy outwash sediments and clay plains possessing spatially variable hydraulic conductivities. The region is also characterised by a large number of post-glacial surface depression wetlands that have seasonally and topographically limited surface connectivity. Consequently, drainage along shallow regional hydraulic gradients may be dominated either by variations in surface geology or local variations in Et. Long-term government lake level monitoring is sparse in this region, but over a decade of hydrometeorological monitoring has taken place around the Utikuma Regional Study Area (URSA), a research site led by the University of Alberta. In situ lake and ground water level data are here combined with time series of airborne lidar and RadarSat II synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to assess the spatial variability of water levels during late summer period characterised by flow recession. Long term Lidar data were collected or obtained by the authors in August of 2002, 2008, 2011 and 2016, while seasonal SAR data were captured approximately every 24 days during the summers of 2015, 2016 and 2017. Water levels for wetlands exceeding 100m2 in area across a north-trending 20km x 5km topographic gradient north of Utikuma Lake were extracted directly from the lidar and indirectly from the SAR. The recent seasonal variability in spatial water levels was extracted from SAR, while the lidar data illustrated more long term trends associated with land use and riparian vegetation succession. All water level data collected in August were combined and averaged at multiple scales using a raster focal statistics function to generate a long term spatial map of the regional hydraulic gradient and scale-dependent variations. Areas of indicated high and low drainage efficiency were overlain onto layers of landcover and surface geology to ascertain causal relationships. Areas associated with high spatial variability in water level illustrate reduced drainage connectivity, while areas of reduced variability indicate high surface connectivity and/or hydraulic conductivity. The hypothesis of surface geology controls on local wetland connectivity and landscape drainage efficiency is supported through this analysis.

A comparison of acoustic and observed sediment classifications as predictor variables for modelling biotope distributions in Galway Bay, Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Carroll, Jack P. J.; Kennedy, Robert; Ren, Lei; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael; Brown, Colin

2017-10-01

The INFOMAR (Integrated Mapping For the Sustainable Development of Ireland's Marine Resource) initiative has acoustically mapped and classified a significant proportion of Ireland's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and is likely to be an important tool in Ireland's efforts to meet the criteria of the MSFD. In this study, open source and relic data were used in combination with new grab survey data to model EUNIS level 4 biotope distributions in Galway Bay, Ireland. The correct prediction rates of two artificial neural networks (ANNs) were compared to assess the effectiveness of acoustic sediment classifications versus sediments that were visually classified by an expert in the field as predictor variables. To test for autocorrelation between predictor variables the RELATE routine with Spearman rank correlation method was used. Optimal models were derived by iteratively removing predictor variables and comparing the correct prediction rates of each model. The models with the highest correct prediction rates were chosen as optimal. The optimal models each used a combination of salinity (binary; 0 = polyhaline and 1 = euhaline), proximity to reef (binary; 0 = within 50 m and 1 = outside 50 m), depth (continuous; metres) and a sediment descriptor (acoustic or observed) as predictor variables. As the status of benthic habitats is required to be assessed under the MSFD the Ecological Status (ES) of the subtidal sediments of Galway Bay was also assessed using the Infaunal Quality Index. The ANN that used observed sediment classes as predictor variables could correctly predict the distribution of biotopes 67% of the time, compared to 63% for the ANN using acoustic sediment classes. Acoustic sediment ANN predictions were affected by local sediment heterogeneity, and the lack of a mixed sediment class. The all-round poor performance of ANNs is likely to be a result of the temporally variable and sparsely distributed data within the study area.

Socio-hydrological model to inform community adaptation to seasonal drought and climate variability in rural agricultural watersheds in Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hund, S. V.; Johnson, M. S.; Morillas, L.; McDaniels, T.; Romero Valpreda, J.; Allen, D. M.

2017-12-01

Climate variability and seasonal droughts associated with ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and increasing water demand due to growing population are leading to serious water conflicts in the wet-dry tropics of Central America. Integrated methods are needed to understand the linkages of these complex socio-hydrological systems and design reliable adaption strategies in a period of global change. With increasing pressure on surface and groundwater resources during long annual dry seasons, rural agricultural communities suffer water shortages, especially in those years preceded by wet seasons with lower rainfall (and reduced groundwater recharge). To support community resilience to rainfall variability and droughts, we conducted a combination of fieldwork (development of hydrologic monitoring system and local stakeholder cooperation), and hydrological modeling for two watersheds with a shared aquifer (Potrero and Caimital) in Northwestern Costa Rica. The agricultural land use of the region and the many rural villages that draw directly on their local water resource and live in close interaction with their watersheds necessitated a socio-hydrological systems approach. In this talk we present results from our hydrologic modeling, for which we used the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model and locally recorded data. With the integrated water supply and demand features of the WEAP model, we were able to synthesize both the hydrological system and the societal system (specifically, household and agricultural water use), and show feedbacks such as that water use tends to increase during the dry season, likely exacerbating water shortages issues. Further, applying a range of ENSO related rainfall scenarios to the model demonstrated that community adaptation will become in particular important in response to lower water availability in future El Niño years. In collaboration with local stakeholders, we identified a set of feasible adaptation strategies to seasonal drought. By applying these strategies to the model, we demonstrate an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of a range of adaptation strategies for increasing the resilience of local communities to seasonal drought.

Quasistatic elastoplasticity via Peridynamics: existence and localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kružík, Martin; Mora-Corral, Carlos; Stefanelli, Ulisse

2018-04-01

Peridynamics is a nonlocal continuum mechanical theory based on minimal regularity on the deformations. Its key trait is that of replacing local constitutive relations featuring spacial differential operators with integrals over differences of displacement fields over a suitable positive interaction range. The advantage of such perspective is that of directly including nonregular situations, in which discontinuities in the displacement field may occur. In the linearized elastic setting, the mechanical foundation of the theory and its mathematical amenability have been thoroughly analyzed in the last years. We present here the extension of Peridynamics to linearized elastoplasticity. This calls for considering the time evolution of elastic and plastic variables, as the effect of a combination of elastic energy storage and plastic energy dissipation mechanisms. The quasistatic evolution problem is variationally reformulated and solved by time discretization. In addition, by a rigorous evolutive Γ -convergence argument we prove that the nonlocal peridynamic model converges to classic local elastoplasticity as the interaction range goes to zero.

Control strategy of grid-connected photovoltaic generation system based on GMPPT method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhongfeng; Zhang, Xuyang; Hu, Bo; Liu, Jun; Li, Ligang; Gu, Yongqiang; Zhou, Bowen

2018-02-01

There are multiple local maximum power points when photovoltaic (PV) array runs under partial shading condition (PSC).However, the traditional maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithm might be easily trapped in local maximum power points (MPPs) and cannot find the global maximum power point (GMPP). To solve such problem, a global maximum power point tracking method (GMPPT) is improved, combined with traditional MPPT method and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Under different operating conditions of PV cells, different tracking algorithms are used. When the environment changes, the improved PSO algorithm is adopted to realize the global optimal search, and the variable step incremental conductance (INC) method is adopted to achieve MPPT in optimal local location. Based on the simulation model of the PV grid system built in Matlab/Simulink, comparative analysis of the tracking effect of MPPT by the proposed control algorithm and the traditional MPPT method under the uniform solar condition and PSC, validate the correctness, feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Automated sequence-specific protein NMR assignment using the memetic algorithm MATCH.

PubMed

Volk, Jochen; Herrmann, Torsten; Wüthrich, Kurt

2008-07-01

MATCH (Memetic Algorithm and Combinatorial Optimization Heuristics) is a new memetic algorithm for automated sequence-specific polypeptide backbone NMR assignment of proteins. MATCH employs local optimization for tracing partial sequence-specific assignments within a global, population-based search environment, where the simultaneous application of local and global optimization heuristics guarantees high efficiency and robustness. MATCH thus makes combined use of the two predominant concepts in use for automated NMR assignment of proteins. Dynamic transition and inherent mutation are new techniques that enable automatic adaptation to variable quality of the experimental input data. The concept of dynamic transition is incorporated in all major building blocks of the algorithm, where it enables switching between local and global optimization heuristics at any time during the assignment process. Inherent mutation restricts the intrinsically required randomness of the evolutionary algorithm to those regions of the conformation space that are compatible with the experimental input data. Using intact and artificially deteriorated APSY-NMR input data of proteins, MATCH performed sequence-specific resonance assignment with high efficiency and robustness.

Genotype and local environment dynamically influence growth, disturbance response and survivorship in the threatened coral, Acropora cervicornis

PubMed Central

Drury, Crawford; Manzello, Derek; Lirman, Diego

2017-01-01

The relationship between the coral genotype and the environment is an important area of research in degraded coral reef ecosystems. We used a reciprocal outplanting experiment with 930 corals representing ten genotypes on each of eight reefs to investigate the influence of genotype and the environment on growth and survivorship in the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis. Coral genotype and site were strong drivers of coral growth and individual genotypes exhibited flexible, non-conserved reaction norms, complemented by ten-fold differences in growth between specific G-E combinations. Growth plasticity may diminish the influence of local adaptation, where foreign corals grew faster than native corals at their home sites. Novel combinations of environment and genotype also significantly affected disturbance response during and after the 2015 bleaching event, where these factors acted synergistically to drive variation in bleaching and recovery. Importantly, small differences in temperature stress elicit variable patterns of survivorship based on genotype and illustrate the importance of novel combinations of coral genetics and small differences between sites representing habitat refugia. In this context, acclimatization and flexibility is especially important given the long lifespan of corals coping with complex environmental change. The combined influence of site and genotype creates short-term differences in growth and survivorship, contributing to the standing genetic variation needed for adaptation to occur over longer timescales and the recovery of degraded reefs through natural mechanisms. PMID:28319134

Influence of landscape and social interactions on transmission of disease in a social cervid.

PubMed

Vander Wal, Eric; Paquet, Paul C; Andrés, José A

2012-03-01

The mechanisms of pathogen transmission are often social behaviours. These occur at local scales and are affected by landscape-scale population structure. Host populations frequently exist in patchy and isolated environments that create a continuum of genetic and social familiarity. Such variability has an important multispatial effect on pathogen spread. We assessed elk dispersal (i.e. likelihood of interdeme pathogen transmission) through spatially explicit genetic analyses. At a landscape scale, the elk population was composed of one cluster within a southeast-to-northwest cline spanning three spatially discrete subpopulations of elk across two protected areas in Manitoba (Canada). Genetic data are consistent with spatial variability in apparent prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in elk. Given the existing population structure, between-subpopulation spread of disease because of elk dispersal is unlikely. Furthermore, to better understand the risk of spread and distribution of the TB, we used a combination of close-contact logging biotelemetry and genetic data, which highlights how social intercourse may affect pathogen transmission. Our results indicate that close-contact interaction rate and duration did not covary with genetic relatedness. Thus, direct elk-to-elk transmission of disease is unlikely to be constrained to related individuals. That social intercourse in elk is not limited to familial groups provides some evidence pathogen transmission may be density-dependent. We show that the combination of landscape-scale genetics, relatedness and local-scale social behaviours is a promising approach to understand and predict landscape-level pathogen transmission within our system and within all social ungulate systems affected by transmissible diseases. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Using probability modelling and genetic parentage assignment to test the role of local mate availability in mating system variation.

PubMed

Blyton, Michaela D J; Banks, Sam C; Peakall, Rod; Lindenmayer, David B

2012-02-01

The formal testing of mating system theories with empirical data is important for evaluating the relative importance of different processes in shaping mating systems in wild populations. Here, we present a generally applicable probability modelling framework to test the role of local mate availability in determining a population's level of genetic monogamy. We provide a significance test for detecting departures in observed mating patterns from model expectations based on mate availability alone, allowing the presence and direction of behavioural effects to be inferred. The assessment of mate availability can be flexible and in this study it was based on population density, sex ratio and spatial arrangement. This approach provides a useful tool for (1) isolating the effect of mate availability in variable mating systems and (2) in combination with genetic parentage analyses, gaining insights into the nature of mating behaviours in elusive species. To illustrate this modelling approach, we have applied it to investigate the variable mating system of the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus cunninghami) and compared the model expectations with the outcomes of genetic parentage analysis over an 18-year study. The observed level of monogamy was higher than predicted under the model. Thus, behavioural traits, such as mate guarding or selective mate choice, may increase the population level of monogamy. We show that combining genetic parentage data with probability modelling can facilitate an improved understanding of the complex interactions between behavioural adaptations and demographic dynamics in driving mating system variation. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Reconstructing the Mexican Tropical Dry Forests via an Autoecological Niche Approach: Reconsidering the Ecosystem Boundaries

PubMed Central

Prieto-Torres, David A.; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R.

2016-01-01

We used Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) of individual species of two taxonomic groups (plants and birds) in order to reconstruct the climatic distribution of Tropical Dry Forests (TDFs) in Mexico and to analyze their boundaries with other terrestrial ecosystems. The reconstruction for TDFs’ distribution was analyzed considering the prediction and omission errors based upon the combination of species, obtained from the overlap of individual models (only plants, only birds, and all species combined). Two verifications were used: a primary vegetation map and 100 independent TDFs localities. We performed a Principal Component (PCA) and Discriminant Analysis (DA) to evaluate the variation in the environmental variables and ecological overlap among ecosystems. The modeling strategies showed differences in the ecological patterns and prediction areas, where the “all species combined” model (with a threshold of ≥10 species) was the best strategy to use in the TDFs reconstruction. We observed a concordance of 78% with the primary vegetation map and a prediction of 98% of independent locality records. Although PCA and DA tests explained 75.78% and 97.9% of variance observed, respectively, we observed an important overlap among the TDFs with other adjacent ecosystems, confirming the existence of transition zones among them. We successfully modeled the distribution of Mexican TDFs using a number of bioclimatic variables and co-distributed species. This autoecological niche approach suggests the necessity of rethinking the delimitations of ecosystems based on the recognition of transition zones among them in order to understand the real nature of communities and association patterns of species. PMID:26968031

Climate of a high altitude lake basin and lake-atmosphere interactions - observations and atmospheric modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maussion, F.; Kropacek, J.; Finkelnburg, R.; Scherer, D.

2012-04-01

Large lakes and inland water bodies have a significant influence on their local climate. The hydrometeorological effect of inland water bodies is varying greatly between seasons, years and contrasting climatic conditions. It is generally hypothesised that the cool air above the lake will inhibit convection in summer; conversely, the relatively warm lake in late-autumn will initiate convective instability that may generate strong snowfalls. In this study we focus on the lake Nam Co (2'000 sq.km, 4700 m a.s.l). Located in a transition zone between the continental climate of Central Asia and the Indian Monsoon system, the Nam Co lake is covered by ice from mid-January to end of April and reaches surface temperatures of 13 °C in summer. We address three main research questions: (i) what is the influence of the Nam Co lake on local meteorological variables over the course of the year, (ii) what is the impact of the timing of the lake freezing on late-autumn and winter precipitation fields and (iii) how will the influence of the lake evolve in the context of a changing climate? In order to answer these questions, we combine satellite observations of lake surface temperatures from the ARC-Lake product and atmospheric modelling using the WRF model. The spatio-temporal variability of temperature, wind and precipitation fields during the last decade are analyzed using high-resolution (up to 2 km) simulations. The positive impact of the assimilation of the lake surface temperatures for the initialization of the model is analysed and discussed, as well as the combined influences of the large scale (westerlies, monsoon) and local (orographic) forcings. Our results are of relevance for any regional climate or hydrological modelling study and bring new insights in our understanding of the complex hydrometeorological processes taking place on the Tibetan Plateau.

The Brain as an Efficient and Robust Adaptive Learner.

PubMed

Denève, Sophie; Alemi, Alireza; Bourdoukan, Ralph

2017-06-07

Understanding how the brain learns to compute functions reliably, efficiently, and robustly with noisy spiking activity is a fundamental challenge in neuroscience. Most sensory and motor tasks can be described as dynamical systems and could presumably be learned by adjusting connection weights in a recurrent biological neural network. However, this is greatly complicated by the credit assignment problem for learning in recurrent networks, e.g., the contribution of each connection to the global output error cannot be determined based only on locally accessible quantities to the synapse. Combining tools from adaptive control theory and efficient coding theories, we propose that neural circuits can indeed learn complex dynamic tasks with local synaptic plasticity rules as long as they associate two experimentally established neural mechanisms. First, they should receive top-down feedbacks driving both their activity and their synaptic plasticity. Second, inhibitory interneurons should maintain a tight balance between excitation and inhibition in the circuit. The resulting networks could learn arbitrary dynamical systems and produce irregular spike trains as variable as those observed experimentally. Yet, this variability in single neurons may hide an extremely efficient and robust computation at the population level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Land Cover Land Use change and soil organic carbon under climate variability in the semi-arid West African Sahel (1960-2050)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieye, Amadou M.

Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change affects land surface processes recognized to influence climate change at local, national and global levels. Soil organic carbon is a key component for the functioning of agro-ecosystems and has a direct effect on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the soil. The capacity to model and project LCLU change is of considerable interest for mitigation and adaptation measures in response to climate change. A combination of remote sensing analyses, qualitative social survey techniques, and biogeochemical modeling was used to study the relationships between climate change, LCLU change and soil organic carbon in the semi-arid rural zone of Senegal between 1960 and 2050. For this purpose, four research hypotheses were addressed. This research aims to contribute to an understanding of future land cover land use change in the semi-arid West African Sahel with respect to climate variability and human activities. Its findings may provide insights to enable policy makers at local to national levels to formulate environmentally and economically adapted policy decisions. This dissertation research has to date resulted in two published and one submitted paper.

Northern bobwhite response to habitat restoration in eastern oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crosby, Andrew D.; Elmore, R.D.; Leslie,, David M.

2013-01-01

In response to the decline of northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter, bobwhite) in eastern Oklahoma, USA, a cost-share incentive program for private landowners was initiated to restore early successional habitat. Our objectives were to determine whether the program had an effect on bobwhite occupancy in the restoration areas and evaluate how local-and landscape-level habitat characteristics affect occupancy in both restoration and control areas. We surveyed 14 sample units that received treatment between 2009 and 2011, and 17 sample units that were controls. We used single-season occupancy models, with year as a dummy variable, to test for an effect of restoration treatment and habitat variables on occupancy. We found no significant treatment effect. Model selection showed that occupancy was best explained by the combination of overstory canopy cover and habitat area at both the local and landscape scales. Moran's I revealed positive spatial autocorrelation in the 1,000-3,000-m distance band, indicating that the likelihood of bobwhite occupancy increased with proximity to other populations. We show that creating ≥ 20 ha of habitat within 1-3 km of existing bobwhite populations increases the chance of restoration being successful.

Tumor Volume Is a Prognostic Factor in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Chemoradiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, Brian M.; Othus, Megan; Caglar, Hale B.

2011-04-01

Purpose: To investigate whether primary tumor and nodal volumes defined on radiotherapy planning scans are correlated with outcome (survival and recurrence) after combined-modality treatment. Methods and Materials: A retrospective review of patients with Stage III non-small-cell lung cancer treated with chemoradiation at Brigham and Women's Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute from 2000 to 2006 was performed. Tumor and nodal volume measurements, as computed by Eclipse (Varian, Palo Alto, CA), were used as independent variables, along with existing clinical factors, in univariate and multivariate analyses for association with outcomes. Results: For patients treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy, both nodal volume (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09;more » p < 0.01) and tumor volume (HR, 1.03; p < 0.01) were associated with overall survival on multivariate analysis. Both nodal volume (HR, 1.10; p < 0.01) and tumor volume (HR, 1.04; p < 0.01) were also associated with local control but not distant metastases. Conclusions: In addition to traditional surgical staging variables, disease burden, measured by primary tumor and nodal metastases volume, provides information that may be helpful in determining prognosis and identifying groups of patients for which more aggressive local therapy is warranted.« less

Real-time assessments of water quality: expanding nowcasting throughout the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2013-01-01

Nowcasts are systems that inform the public of current bacterial water-quality conditions at beaches on the basis of predictive models. During 2010–12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) worked with 23 local and State agencies to improve existing operational beach nowcast systems at 4 beaches and expand the use of predictive models in nowcasts at an additional 45 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. The predictive models were specific to each beach, and the best model for each beach was based on a unique combination of environmental and water-quality explanatory variables. The variables used most often in models to predict Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations or the probability of exceeding a State recreational water-quality standard included turbidity, day of the year, wave height, wind direction and speed, antecedent rainfall for various time periods, and change in lake level over 24 hours. During validation of 42 beach models during 2012, the models performed better than the current method to assess recreational water quality (previous day's E. coli concentration). The USGS will continue to work with local agencies to improve nowcast predictions, enable technology transfer of predictive model development procedures, and implement more operational systems during 2013 and beyond.

GEECS (Generalized Equipment and Experiment Control System)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

GONSALVES, ANTHONY; DESHMUKH, AALHAD

2017-01-12

GEECS (Generalized Equipment and Experiment Control System) monitors and controls equipment distributed across a network, performs experiments by scanning input variables, and collects and stores various types of data synchronously from devices. Examples of devices include cameras, motors and pressure gauges. GEEKS is based upon LabView graphical object oriented programming (GOOP), allowing for a modular and scalable framework. Data is published for subscription of an arbitrary number of variables over TCP. A secondary framework allows easy development of graphical user interfaces for a combined control of any available devices on the control system without the need of programming knowledge. Thismore » allows for rapid integration of GEECS into a wide variety of systems. A database interface provides for devise and process configuration while allowing the user to save large quantities of data to local or network drives.« less

Kochen-Specker theorem studied with neutron interferometer.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Yuji; Durstberger-Rennhofer, Katharina; Sponar, Stephan; Rauch, Helmut

2011-04-01

The Kochen-Specker theorem shows the incompatibility of noncontextual hidden variable theories with quantum mechanics. Quantum contextuality is a more general concept than quantum non-locality which is quite well tested in experiments using Bell inequalities. Within neutron interferometry we performed an experimental test of the Kochen-Specker theorem with an inequality, which identifies quantum contextuality, by using spin-path entanglement of single neutrons. Here entanglement is achieved not between different particles, but between degrees of freedom of a single neutron, i.e., between spin and path degree of freedom. Appropriate combinations of the spin analysis and the position of the phase shifter allow an experimental verification of the violation of an inequality derived from the Kochen-Specker theorem. The observed violation 2.291±0.008≰1 clearly shows that quantum mechanical predictions cannot be reproduced by noncontextual hidden variable theories.

A programing system for research and applications in structural optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, J.; Rogers, J. L., Jr.

1981-01-01

The paper describes a computer programming system designed to be used for methodology research as well as applications in structural optimization. The flexibility necessary for such diverse utilizations is achieved by combining, in a modular manner, a state-of-the-art optimization program, a production level structural analysis program, and user supplied and problem dependent interface programs. Standard utility capabilities existing in modern computer operating systems are used to integrate these programs. This approach results in flexibility of the optimization procedure organization and versatility in the formulation of contraints and design variables. Features shown in numerical examples include: (1) variability of structural layout and overall shape geometry, (2) static strength and stiffness constraints, (3) local buckling failure, and (4) vibration constraints. The paper concludes with a review of the further development trends of this programing system.

Decoupling global biases and local interactions between cell biological variables

PubMed Central

Zaritsky, Assaf; Obolski, Uri; Gan, Zhuo; Reis, Carlos R; Kadlecova, Zuzana; Du, Yi; Schmid, Sandra L; Danuser, Gaudenz

2017-01-01

Analysis of coupled variables is a core concept of cell biological inference, with co-localization of two molecules as a proxy for protein interaction being a ubiquitous example. However, external effectors may influence the observed co-localization independently from the local interaction of two proteins. Such global bias, although biologically meaningful, is often neglected when interpreting co-localization. Here, we describe DeBias, a computational method to quantify and decouple global bias from local interactions between variables by modeling the observed co-localization as the cumulative contribution of a global and a local component. We showcase four applications of DeBias in different areas of cell biology, and demonstrate that the global bias encapsulates fundamental mechanistic insight into cellular behavior. The DeBias software package is freely accessible online via a web-server at https://debias.biohpc.swmed.edu. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.22323.001 PMID:28287393

Seasonal budgets of ozone and oxidant precursors in an industrial coastal area of northern Italy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georgiadis, T.; Alberti, L.; Bonasoni, P.; Fortezza, F.; Giovanelli, G.; Strocchi, V.

1994-01-01

The seasonal budgets and evolution of photochemical oxidants reported for greater Ravenna's urban-industrial area in the present study were calculated using the combined data from on-site systematic surveys (1978-1989) and from the monitoring network of the local environmental authorities. The notable differences in the concentrations of ozone and nitrogen oxides depended on season, and meteorological variables showed a marked correlation to the seasonal budget of trace constituents. The weak local circulation, the land-sea breeze system, and high solar radiation in summer, which may persist at length because of the anticyclonic conditions, can produce episodes of intense photochemical reactions. In winter, by contrast, low solar radiation and the absence of the breeze system results in very different evolutions of both pollutant concentrations and their seasonal budget.

An Eight-Century High-Resolution Paleoclimate Record From the Cariaco Basin: Baseline Variability and the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, D. E.; Thunell, R. C.; Kaplan, A.; Tappa, E. J.; Peterson, L. C.

2007-12-01

The Cariaco Basin, Venezuela is well-positioned to record a detailed history of surface ocean changes along the southern margin of the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. Varved, high deposition rate sediments deposited under anoxic conditions and an abundance of well-preserved microfossils result in one of the few marine records capable of preserving evidence of interannual- to decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical Atlantic. Here we present Mg/Ca and stable oxygen isotope data with sub-decadal resolution derived from sediments deposited over the last 800 years. Mg/Ca measured on the planktic foraminifer Globigerina bulloides from a Cariaco Basin sediment core strongly correlates with spring (March-May) instrumental SSTs between AD 1870 and 1990. The long-term record displays a surprising amount of variability for a tropical location. The temperature swings are not necessarily related to local upwelling variability, but instead represent wider conditions in the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic. The Mg/Ca-SST record also captures the decadal and multidecadal variability observed in global land and sea surface temperature anomalies, and correlates with Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency over the late-19th and 20th centuries. On average, 20th century temperatures are not the warmest in the entire record, but they do show the largest increase in magnitude and fastest rate of SST change over the last eight hundred years. Stable oxygen isotope data also correlate well with instrumental SSTs, but not over the full instrumental record. Poor correlations with early instrumental SST data suggest a salinity overprint. However, reconstructing δ- water variability using combined Mg/Ca and δ18O data is not straightforward as the δ- water/salinity relationship varies seasonally in the Cariaco Basin. Comparisons with percent titanium data suggest intervals of both local and regional surface salinity changes over the length of the record.

Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

PubMed Central

Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

2009-01-01

Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]). The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. Conclusion Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation. PMID:19361335

Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

PubMed

Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A Lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

2009-04-10

The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation.

Local oceanographic variability influences the performance of juvenile abalone under climate change.

PubMed

Boch, C A; Micheli, F; AlNajjar, M; Monismith, S G; Beers, J M; Bonilla, J C; Espinoza, A M; Vazquez-Vera, L; Woodson, C B

2018-04-03

Climate change is causing warming, deoxygenation, and acidification of the global ocean. However, manifestation of climate change may vary at local scales due to oceanographic conditions. Variation in stressors, such as high temperature and low oxygen, at local scales may lead to variable biological responses and spatial refuges from climate impacts. We conducted outplant experiments at two locations separated by ~2.5 km and two sites at each location separated by ~200 m in the nearshore of Isla Natividad, Mexico to assess how local ocean conditions (warming and hypoxia) may affect juvenile abalone performance. Here, we show that abalone growth and mortality mapped to variability in stress exposure across sites and locations. These insights indicate that management decisions aimed at maintaining and recovering valuable marine species in the face of climate change need to be informed by local variability in environmental conditions.

Efficacy of periodontal plastic surgery procedures in the treatment of localized facial gingival recessions. A systematic review.

PubMed

Cairo, Francesco; Nieri, Michele; Pagliaro, Umberto

2014-04-01

The aim of this Systematic Review (SR) was to assess the clinical efficacy of periodontal plastic surgery procedures in the treatment of localized gingival recessions (Rec) with or without inter-dental clinical attachment loss (iCAL). Electronic and hand searches were performed to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) on treatment of single gingival recessions with at least 6 months of follow-up. Primary outcome variable was complete root coverage (CRC). Secondary outcome variables were recession reduction (RecRed) and keratinized tissue (KT) gain. To evaluate treatment effect, Odds Ratios were combined for dichotomous data and mean differences in continuous data using a random-effect model. Fifty-one RCTs (53 articles) with a total of 1574 treated patients (1744 recessions) were included in this SR. Finally, 30 groups of comparisons were identified and a total of 80 meta-analyses were performed. Coronally Advanced Flap (CAF) was associated with higher probability of CRC and higher amount of RecRed than Semilunar Coronal Positioned Flap (SCPF). The combination CAF plus Connective Tissue Graft (CAF+CTG) or CAF plus Enamel Matrix Derivative (CAF+EMD) was more effective than CAF alone in terms of CRC and RecRed. The combination CAF plus Collagen Matrix (CAF+CM) achieved higher RecRed than CAF alone. In addition, CAF+CTG achieved CRC more frequently than CAF+EMD, SCPF, Free Gingival Graft (FGG) and Laterally Positioned Flap (LPS). CAF+CTG was also associated with higher RecRed than Barrier Membranes (CAF+GTR), CAF+EMD and CAF+CM. GTR was not able to improve the clinical efficacy of CAF. Studies adding Acellular Dermal Matrix (ADM) under CAF showed a large heterogeneity and not significant benefits compared with CAF alone. Multiple combinations, using more than a single graft/biomaterial under the flap, usually provide similar or less benefits than simpler, control procedures in term of root coverage outcomes. CAF procedures alone or with CTG, EMD are supported by large evidence in modern periodontal plastic surgery. CAF+CTG achieved the best clinical outcomes in single gingival recessions with or without iCAL. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Combining information from 3 anatomic regions in the diagnosis of glaucoma with time-domain optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Wang, Mingwu; Lu, Ake Tzu-Hui; Varma, Rohit; Schuman, Joel S; Greenfield, David S; Huang, David

2014-03-01

To improve the diagnosis of glaucoma by combining time-domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT) measurements of the optic disc, circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), and macular retinal thickness. Ninety-six age-matched normal and 96 perimetric glaucoma participants were included in this observational, cross-sectional study. Or-logic, support vector machine, relevance vector machine, and linear discrimination function were used to analyze the performances of combined TD-OCT diagnostic variables. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AROC) was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and to compare the diagnostic performance of single and combined anatomic variables. The best RNFL thickness variables were the inferior (AROC=0.900), overall (AROC=0.892), and superior quadrants (AROC=0.850). The best optic disc variables were horizontal integrated rim width (AROC=0.909), vertical integrated rim area (AROC=0.908), and cup/disc vertical ratio (AROC=0.890). All macular retinal thickness variables had AROCs of 0.829 or less. Combining the top 3 RNFL and optic disc variables in optimizing glaucoma diagnosis, support vector machine had the highest AROC, 0.954, followed by or-logic (AROC=0.946), linear discrimination function (AROC=0.946), and relevance vector machine (AROC=0.943). All combination diagnostic variables had significantly larger AROCs than any single diagnostic variable. There are no significant differences among the combination diagnostic indices. With TD-OCT, RNFL and optic disc variables had better diagnostic accuracy than macular retinal variables. Combining top RNFL and optic disc variables significantly improved diagnostic performance. Clinically, or-logic classification was the most practical analytical tool with sufficient accuracy to diagnose early glaucoma.

Year of treatment as independent predictor of relapse-free survival in patients with localized prostate cancer treated with definitive radiotherapy in the PSA era.

PubMed

Kupelian, Patrick; Thames, Howard; Levy, Larry; Horwitz, Eric; Martinez, Alvaro; Michalski, Jeff; Pisansky, Thomas; Sandler, Howard; Shipley, William; Zelefsky, Michael; Zietman, Anthony; Kuban, Deborah

2005-11-01

To study the use of the year of therapy as an independent predictor of outcomes, serving as a proxy for time-related changes in therapy and tumor factors in the treatment of prostate cancer. Accounting for these changes would facilitate the retrospective comparison of outcomes for patients treated in different periods. Nine institutions combined data on 4,537 patients with Stages T1 and T2 adenocarcinoma of the prostate who had a pretherapy prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and biopsy Gleason score, and who had received > or = 60 Gy external beam radiotherapy without neoadjuvant androgen deprivation or planned adjuvant androgen deprivation. All patients were treated between 1986 and 1995. Two groups were defined: those treated before 1993 (Yr < or = 92) vs. 1993 and after (Yr > or = 93). Patients treated before 1993 had their follow-up truncated to make the follow-up time similar to that for patients treated in 1993 and after. Therefore, the median follow-up time was 6.0 years for both groups (Yr < or = 92 and Yr > or = 93). Two separate biochemical failure endpoints were used. Definition A consisted of the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology Oncology endpoint (three PSA rises backdated, local failure, distant failure, or hormonal therapy). Definition B consisted of PSA level greater than the current nadir plus two, local failure, distant failure, or hormonal therapy administered. Multivariate analyses for factors affecting PSA disease-free survival (PSA-DFS) rates using both endpoints were performed for all cases using the following variables: T stage (T1b, T1c, T2a vs. T2b, T2c), pretreatment PSA (continuous variable), biopsy Gleason score (continuous variable), radiation dose (continuous variable), and year of treatment (continuous variable). The year variable (defined as the current year minus 1960) ranged from 26 to 35. To evaluate the effect of radiation dose, the multivariate analyses were repeated with the 3,897 cases who had received < 72 Gy using the same variables except for radiation dose. For all 4,537 patients, the 5- and 8-year PSA-DFS estimate using definition A (ASTRO consensus definition) was 60% and 55%, respectively. The 8-year PSA-DFS estimate for Yr < 93 vs. Yr > or = 93 was 52% vs. 57%, respectively (p < 0.001). In the subgroup of patients receiving < 72 Gy, the 8-year PSA-DFS estimate for Yr < 93 vs. Yr > or = 93 was 52% and 55%, respectively (p = 0.004). The differences in PSA-DFS rates in the different subgroups were similar when definition B was used. The multivariate analyses for all 4,537 cases with either PSA-DFS definition revealed T stage (p < 0.001), pretherapy PSA level (p < 0.001), Gleason score (p < 0.001), radiation dose (p < 0.001), and year of treatment (p < 0.001) to be independent predictors of outcomes. The multivariate analyses restricted to the 3,897 cases receiving < 72 Gy still revealed year of treatment to be an independent predictor of outcomes (p < 0.001), in addition to T stage (p < 0.001), pretherapy PSA level (p < 0.001), and Gleason score (p < 0.001). Independent of tumor stage, radiation dose, failure definition, and follow-up parameters, the year in which RT was performed was an independent predictor of outcomes. These findings indicate a more favorable presentation of localized prostate cancer in current years that is not necessarily reflected in the patients' PSA levels or Gleason scores. This phenomenon is probably related to a combination of factors, such as screening, increased patient awareness leading to earlier biopsies and earlier diagnosis, more aggressive pretherapy staging, and unrecognized improvements in therapy, but perhaps also to changing tumor biology. Outcomes predictions should be based on contemporaneous series. Alternatively, the year of therapy could be incorporated as a variable in outcomes analyses of localized prostate cancer patients treated in different periods within the PSA era.

A data centred method to estimate and map changes in the full distribution of daily surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Characterizing how our climate is changing includes local information which can inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles or thresholds in distributions of variables such as daily surface temperature. Here we focus on these local changes and on a model independent method to transform daily observations into patterns of local climate change. Our method [1] is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of the distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. For temperature, changes in the distribution itself can yield robust results [2]. We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations [3]. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data [4] timeseries of local daily surface temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. [1] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, On estimating long term local climate trends, Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 (2013) [2] Stainforth, D. A. S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, ERL 8, 034031 (2013) [3] Chapman, S. C., Stainforth, D. A., Watkins, N. W. Limits to the quantification of local climate change, ERL 10, 094018 (2015) [4] Haylock M. R. et al ., A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, (2008)

MODFLOW-LGR: Practical application to a large regional dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, D.; Coulibaly, K. M.

2011-12-01

In many areas of the US, including southwest Florida, large regional-scale groundwater models have been developed to aid in decision making and water resources management. These models are subsequently used as a basis for site-specific investigations. Because the large scale of these regional models is not appropriate for local application, refinement is necessary to analyze the local effects of pumping wells and groundwater related projects at specific sites. The most commonly used approach to date is Telescopic Mesh Refinement or TMR. It allows the extraction of a subset of the large regional model with boundary conditions derived from the regional model results. The extracted model is then updated and refined for local use using a variable sized grid focused on the area of interest. MODFLOW-LGR, local grid refinement, is an alternative approach which allows model discretization at a finer resolution in areas of interest and provides coupling between the larger "parent" model and the locally refined "child." In the present work, these two approaches are tested on a mining impact assessment case in southwest Florida using a large regional dataset (The Lower West Coast Surficial Aquifer System Model). Various metrics for performance are considered. They include: computation time, water balance (as compared to the variable sized grid), calibration, implementation effort, and application advantages and limitations. The results indicate that MODFLOW-LGR is a useful tool to improve local resolution of regional scale models. While performance metrics, such as computation time, are case-dependent (model size, refinement level, stresses involved), implementation effort, particularly when regional models of suitable scale are available, can be minimized. The creation of multiple child models within a larger scale parent model makes it possible to reuse the same calibrated regional dataset with minimal modification. In cases similar to the Lower West Coast model, where a model is larger than optimal for direct application as a parent grid, a combination of TMR and LGR approaches should be used to develop a suitable parent grid.

Safety Assessment of Allergic Contact Dermatitis Hazards: An Analysis Supporting Reduced Animal Use for the Murine Local Lymph Node Assay

PubMed Central

Haseman, Joseph K.; Strickland, Judy; Allen, David; Salicru, Eleni; Paris, Michael; Tice, Raymond R.; Stokes, William S.

2011-01-01

The original Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Test Guideline 429 (OECD TG 429) for the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) required five mice/group if mice were processed individually. We used data from 83 LLNA tests (275 treated groups) to determine the impact on the LLNA outcome of reducing the group size from five to four. From DPM measurements, we formed all possible four-mice and five-mice combinations for the treated and control groups. Stimulation index (SI) values from each four-mice combination were compared with those from five-mice combinations, and agreement (both SI < 3 or both SI ≥ 3) determined. Average agreement between group sizes was 97.5% for the 275 treated groups. Compared test-by-test, 90% (75/83) of the tests had 100% agreement; agreement was 83% for the remaining eight tests. Disagreement was due primarily to variability in animal responses and closeness of the SI to three (positive response threshold) rather than to group size reduction. We conclude that using four rather than five mice per group would reduce animal use by 20% without adversely impacting LLNA performance. This analysis supported the recent update to OECD TG 429 allowing a minimum of four mice/group when each mouse is processed individually. PMID:20974208

Safety assessment of allergic contact dermatitis hazards: an analysis supporting reduced animal use for the murine local lymph node assay.

PubMed

Haseman, Joseph K; Strickland, Judy; Allen, David; Salicru, Eleni; Paris, Michael; Tice, Raymond R; Stokes, William S

2011-02-01

The original Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Test Guideline 429 (OECD TG 429) for the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) required five mice/group if mice were processed individually. We used data from 83 LLNA tests (275 treated groups) to determine the impact on the LLNA outcome of reducing the group size from five to four. From DPM measurements, we formed all possible four- and five-mice combinations for the treated and control groups. Stimulation index (SI) values from each four-mice combination were compared with those from five-mice combinations, and agreement (both SI<3 or both SI ≥ 3) determined. Average agreement between group sizes was 97.5% for the 275 treated groups. Compared test-by-test, 90% (75/83) of the tests had 100% agreement; agreement was 83% for the remaining eight tests. Disagreement was due primarily to variability in animal responses and closeness of the SI to three (positive response threshold) rather than to group size reduction. We conclude that using four rather than five mice per group would reduce animal use by 20% without adversely impacting LLNA performance. This analysis supported the recent update to OECD TG 429 allowing a minimum of four mice/group when each mouse is processed individually. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Measuring the authority of local public health directors in the context of organizational structure: an exploratory, multimodal approach.

PubMed

Miner Gearin, Kimberly J; Thrash, Allison M Rick; Frauendienst, Renee; Myhre, Julie; Gyllstrom, M Elizabeth; Riley, William J; Schroeder, Janelle

2012-11-01

Studies have reported a relationship between the organization of public health services and variability in public health practice at the local and state levels. A national research agenda has prioritized practice-based research to understand pathways that lead to this variation and examine the impact of these differences on outcomes. To measure the extent to which Minnesota local health directors report having key authorities and examine the relationship between organizational structure and authority of local health directors. : Multimodal. Minnesota local health departments. Directors of Minnesota local health departments. Director authorities. Most Minnesota local health directors reported having 6 key authorities related to budget preparation and modification and interaction with local elected officials (n = 51, 71%). Twelve directors (16%) reported that they have 4 or fewer of the 6 authorities. The authority most commonly reported as lacking was the authority to initiate communication with locally elected officials (n = 15, 21%). The percentage of directors who reported having all 6 authorities was higher among those in stand-alone departments (82%) than those in combined organizations (50%). This descriptive study illustrates that emerging practice-based research networks can successfully collaborate on small-scale research projects with immediate application for systems development. Study findings are being used by local public health officials to help articulate their role, aid in succession planning, and inform elected officials, who need to consider the public health implications of potential changes to local public health governance and organization. More studies are needed to refine measurement of authority and structure.

[Landscape and ecological genomics].

PubMed

Tetushkin, E Ia

2013-10-01

Landscape genomics is the modern version of landscape genetics, a discipline that arose approximately 10 years ago as a combination of population genetics, landscape ecology, and spatial statistics. It studies the effects of environmental variables on gene flow and other microevolutionary processes that determine genetic connectivity and variations in populations. In contrast to population genetics, it operates at the level of individual specimens rather than at the level of population samples. Another important difference between landscape genetics and genomics and population genetics is that, in the former, the analysis of gene flow and local adaptations takes quantitative account of landforms and features of the matrix, i.e., hostile spaces that separate species habitats. Landscape genomics is a part of population ecogenomics, which, along with community genomics, is a major part of ecological genomics. One of the principal purposes of landscape genomics is the identification and differentiation of various genome-wide and locus-specific effects. The approaches and computation tools developed for combined analysis of genomic and landscape variables make it possible to detect adaptation-related genome fragments, which facilitates the planning of conservation efforts and the prediction of species' fate in response to expected changes in the environment.

Gland segmentation in prostate histopathological images

PubMed Central

Singh, Malay; Kalaw, Emarene Mationg; Giron, Danilo Medina; Chong, Kian-Tai; Tan, Chew Lim; Lee, Hwee Kuan

2017-01-01

Abstract. Glandular structural features are important for the tumor pathologist in the assessment of cancer malignancy of prostate tissue slides. The varying shapes and sizes of glands combined with the tedious manual observation task can result in inaccurate assessment. There are also discrepancies and low-level agreement among pathologists, especially in cases of Gleason pattern 3 and pattern 4 prostate adenocarcinoma. An automated gland segmentation system can highlight various glandular shapes and structures for further analysis by the pathologist. These objective highlighted patterns can help reduce the assessment variability. We propose an automated gland segmentation system. Forty-three hematoxylin and eosin-stained images were acquired from prostate cancer tissue slides and were manually annotated for gland, lumen, periacinar retraction clefting, and stroma regions. Our automated gland segmentation system was trained using these manual annotations. It identifies these regions using a combination of pixel and object-level classifiers by incorporating local and spatial information for consolidating pixel-level classification results into object-level segmentation. Experimental results show that our method outperforms various texture and gland structure-based gland segmentation algorithms in the literature. Our method has good performance and can be a promising tool to help decrease interobserver variability among pathologists. PMID:28653016

Exploring the relationship between vegetation spectra and eco-geo-environmental conditions in karst region, Southwest China.

PubMed

Yue, Yuemin; Wang, Kelin; Zhang, Bing; Chen, Zhengchao; Jiao, Quanjun; Liu, Bo; Chen, Hongsong

2010-01-01

Remote sensing of local environmental conditions is not accessible if substrates are covered with vegetation. This study explored the relationship between vegetation spectra and karst eco-geo-environmental conditions. Hyperspectral remote sensing techniques showed that there were significant differences between spectral features of vegetation mainly distributed in karst and non-karst regions, and combination of 1,300- to 2,500-nm reflectance and 400- to 680-nm first-derivative spectra could delineate karst and non-karst vegetation groups. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) successfully assessed to what extent the variation of vegetation spectral features can be explained by associated eco-geo-environmental variables, and it was found that soil moisture and calcium carbonate contents had the most significant effects on vegetation spectral features in karst region. Our study indicates that vegetation spectra is tightly linked to eco-geo-environmental conditions and CCA is an effective means of studying the relationship between vegetation spectral features and eco-geo-environmental variables. Employing a combination of spectral and spatial analysis, it is anticipated that hyperspectral imagery can be used in interpreting or mapping eco-geo-environmental conditions covered with vegetation in karst region.

Genetic variability of Indonesian local chili pepper: The facts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumingtyas, Estri Laras; Kusnadi, Joni; Sari, Dewi Ratih Tirto; Ratih, Nursita

2017-11-01

Chili pepper (Capsicum frutescens) is one species of Solanaceae family that is very popular in Indonesia and some other tropical countries because of its pungency. Chili pepper is an important spice in Indonesia and is also eaten fresh as a pickle to increase appetite. In Indonesia, there are various local names for chili pepper includingcabai, cengek, lombok, pedesan etc. These varied local names represent the various morphological shapes of the chili pepper fruit. We have investigated the variability of some chili cultivars based on morphological characteristics, molecular markers, pungency, and capsaicin content. Some biological facts, such as the tendency of chili pepper to outbreed, have also been found. In this paper, the source of variability and the possible mechanism of increasing genetic variability of Indonesian local chili pepper are also discussed.

Modeling the effects of space structure and combination therapies on phenotypic heterogeneity and drug resistance in solid tumors.

PubMed

Lorz, Alexander; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Clairambault, Jean; Escargueil, Alexandre; Perthame, Benoît

2015-01-01

Histopathological evidence supports the idea that the emergence of phenotypic heterogeneity and resistance to cytotoxic drugs can be considered as a process of selection in tumor cell populations. In this framework, can we explain intra-tumor heterogeneity in terms of selection driven by the local cell environment? Can we overcome the emergence of resistance and favor the eradication of cancer cells by using combination therapies? Bearing these questions in mind, we develop a model describing cell dynamics inside a tumor spheroid under the effects of cytotoxic and cytostatic drugs. Cancer cells are assumed to be structured as a population by two real variables standing for space position and the expression level of a phenotype of resistance to cytotoxic drugs. The model takes explicitly into account the dynamics of resources and anticancer drugs as well as their interactions with the cell population under treatment. We analyze the effects of space structure and combination therapies on phenotypic heterogeneity and chemotherapeutic resistance. Furthermore, we study the efficacy of combined therapy protocols based on constant infusion and bang-bang delivery of cytotoxic and cytostatic drugs.

Hotspot detection using space-time scan statistics on children under five years of age in Depok

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdiana, Miranti; Widyaningsih, Yekti

2017-03-01

Some problems that affect the health level in Depok is the high malnutrition rates from year to year and the more spread infectious and non-communicable diseases in some areas. Children under five years old is a vulnerable part of population to get the malnutrition and diseases. Based on this reason, it is important to observe the location and time, where and when, malnutrition in Depok happened in high intensity. To obtain the location and time of the hotspots of malnutrition and diseases that attack children under five years old, space-time scan statistics method can be used. Space-time scan statistic is a hotspot detection method, where the area and time of information and time are taken into account simultaneously in detecting the hotspots. This method detects a hotspot with a cylindrical scanning window: the cylindrical pedestal describes the area, and the height of cylinder describe the time. Cylinders formed is a hotspot candidate that may occur, which require testing of hypotheses, whether a cylinder can be summed up as a hotspot. Hotspot detection in this study carried out by forming a combination of several variables. Some combination of variables provides hotspot detection results that tend to be the same, so as to form groups (clusters). In the case of infant health level in Depok city, Beji health care center region in 2011-2012 is a hotspot. According to the combination of the variables used in the detection of hotspots, Beji health care center is most frequently as a hotspot. Hopefully the local government can take the right policy to improve the health level of children under five in the city of Depok.

Linear Stability Analysis of Gravitational Effects on a Low-Density Gas Jet Injected into a High-Density Medium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawson, Anthony L.; Parthasarathy, Ramkumar N.

2005-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of buoyancy on the absolute instability of low-density gas jets injected into high-density gas mediums. Most of the existing analyses of low-density gas jets injected into a high-density ambient have been carried out neglecting effects of gravity. In order to investigate the influence of gravity on the near-injector development of the flow, a spatio-temporal stability analysis of a low-density round jet injected into a high-density ambient gas was performed. The flow was assumed to be isothermal and locally parallel; viscous and diffusive effects were ignored. The variables were represented as the sum of the mean value and a normal-mode small disturbance. An ordinary differential equation governing the amplitude of the pressure disturbance was derived. The velocity and density profiles in the shear layer, and the Froude number (signifying the effects of gravity) were the three important parameters in this equation. Together with the boundary conditions, an eigenvalue problem was formulated. Assuming that the velocity and density profiles in the shear layer to be represented by hyperbolic tangent functions, the eigenvalue problem was solved for various values of Froude number. The Briggs-Bers criterion was combined with the spatio-temporal stability analysis to determine the nature of the absolute instability of the jet whether absolutely or convectively unstable. The roles of the density ratio, Froude number, Schmidt number, and the lateral shift between the density and velocity profiles on the absolute instability of the jet were determined. Comparisons of the results with previous experimental studies show good agreement when the effects of these variables are combined together. Thus, the combination of these variables determines how absolutely unstable the jet will be.

Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart

2017-04-01

Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given the applied model chain and forcing scenario. However, the analysis also shows how limited the information in single ensemble members is on the local scale forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming when the forced response has emerged from natural variability. Analysis and application of multi-model ensembles like EURO-CORDEX should go hand-in-hand with single model ensembles, like the one presented here, to be able to correctly interpret the fine-scale information in terms of a forced signal and random noise due to natural variability.

Estimations of population density for selected periods between the Neolithic and AD 1800.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Andreas; Hilpert, Johanna; Wendt, Karl Peter

2009-04-01

Abstract We describe a combination of methods applied to obtain reliable estimations of population density using archaeological data. The combination is based on a hierarchical model of scale levels. The necessary data and methods used to obtain the results are chosen so as to define transfer functions from one scale level to another. We apply our method to data sets from western Germany that cover early Neolithic, Iron Age, Roman, and Merovingian times as well as historical data from AD 1800. Error margins and natural and historical variability are discussed. Our results for nonstate societies are always lower than conventional estimations compiled from the literature, and we discuss the reasons for this finding. At the end, we compare the calculated local and global population densities with other estimations from different parts of the world.

A spray flamelet/progress variable approach combined with a transported joint PDF model for turbulent spray flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yong; Olguin, Hernan; Gutheil, Eva

2017-05-01

A spray flamelet/progress variable approach is developed for use in spray combustion with partly pre-vaporised liquid fuel, where a laminar spray flamelet library accounts for evaporation within the laminar flame structures. For this purpose, the standard spray flamelet formulation for pure evaporating liquid fuel and oxidiser is extended by a chemical reaction progress variable in both the turbulent spray flame model and the laminar spray flame structures, in order to account for the effect of pre-vaporised liquid fuel for instance through use of a pilot flame. This new approach is combined with a transported joint probability density function (PDF) method for the simulation of a turbulent piloted ethanol/air spray flame, and the extension requires the formulation of a joint three-variate PDF depending on the gas phase mixture fraction, the chemical reaction progress variable, and gas enthalpy. The molecular mixing is modelled with the extended interaction-by-exchange-with-the-mean (IEM) model, where source terms account for spray evaporation and heat exchange due to evaporation as well as the chemical reaction rate for the chemical reaction progress variable. This is the first formulation using a spray flamelet model considering both evaporation and partly pre-vaporised liquid fuel within the laminar spray flamelets. Results with this new formulation show good agreement with the experimental data provided by A.R. Masri, Sydney, Australia. The analysis of the Lagrangian statistics of the gas temperature and the OH mass fraction indicates that partially premixed combustion prevails near the nozzle exit of the spray, whereas further downstream, the non-premixed flame is promoted towards the inner rich-side of the spray jet since the pilot flame heats up the premixed inner spray zone. In summary, the simulation with the new formulation considering the reaction progress variable shows good performance, greatly improving the standard formulation, and it provides new insight into the local structure of this complex spray flame.

Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

2014-12-01

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

2013-12-01

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using NCEP/NCAR re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally-refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

Direct numerical simulation of incompressible acceleration-driven variable-density turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gat, Ilana; Matheou, Georgios; Chung, Daniel; Dimotakis, Paul

2015-11-01

Fully developed turbulence in variable-density flow driven by an externally imposed acceleration field, e.g., gravity, is fundamental in many applications, such as inertial confinement fusion, geophysics, and astrophysics. Aspects of this turbulence regime are poorly understood and are of interest to fluid modeling. We investigate incompressible acceleration-driven variable-density turbulence by a series of direct numerical simulations of high-density fluid in-between slabs of low-density fluid, in a triply-periodic domain. A pseudo-spectral numerical method with a Helmholtz-Hodge decomposition of the pressure field, which ensures mass conservation, is employed, as documented in Chung & Pullin (2010). A uniform dynamic viscosity and local Schmidt number of unity are assumed. This configuration encapsulates a combination of flow phenomena in a temporally evolving variable-density shear flow. Density ratios up to 10 and Reynolds numbers in the fully developed turbulent regime are investigated. The temporal evolution of the vertical velocity difference across the shear layer, shear-layer growth, mean density, and Reynolds number are discussed. Statistics of Lagrangian accelerations of fluid elements and of vorticity as a function of the density ratio are also presented. This material is based upon work supported by the AFOSR, the DOE, the NSF GRFP, and Caltech.

Characterization of local complex structures in a recurrence plot to improve nonlinear dynamic discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Ding, Hang

2014-01-01

Structures in recurrence plots (RPs), preserving the rich information of nonlinear invariants and trajectory characteristics, have been increasingly analyzed in dynamic discrimination studies. The conventional analysis of RPs is mainly focused on quantifying the overall diagonal and vertical line structures through a method, called recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). This study extensively explores the information in RPs by quantifying local complex RP structures. To do this, an approach was developed to analyze the combination of three major RQA variables: determinism, laminarity, and recurrence rate (DLR) in a metawindow moving over a RP. It was then evaluated in two experiments discriminating (1) ideal nonlinear dynamic series emulated from the Lorenz system with different control parameters and (2) data sets of human heart rate regulations with normal sinus rhythms (n = 18) and congestive heart failure (n = 29). Finally, the DLR was compared with seven major RQA variables in terms of discriminatory power, measured by standardized mean difference (DSMD). In the two experiments, DLR resulted in the highest discriminatory power with DSMD = 2.53 and 0.98, respectively, which were 7.41 and 2.09 times the best performance from RQA. The study also revealed that the optimal RP structures for the discriminations were neither typical diagonal structures nor vertical structures. These findings indicate that local complex RP structures contain some rich information unexploited by RQA. Therefore, future research to extensively analyze complex RP structures would potentially improve the effectiveness of the RP analysis in dynamic discrimination studies.

Scanning laser polarimetry using variable corneal compensation in the detection of glaucoma with localized visual field defects.

PubMed

Kook, Michael S; Cho, Hyun-soo; Seong, Mincheol; Choi, Jaewan

2005-11-01

To evaluate the ability of scanning laser polarimetry parameters and a novel deviation map algorithm to discriminate between healthy and early glaucomatous eyes with localized visual field (VF) defects confined to one hemifield. Prospective case-control study. Seventy glaucomatous eyes with localized VF defects and 66 normal controls. A Humphrey field analyzer 24-2 full-threshold test and scanning laser polarimetry with variable corneal compensation were used. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of scanning laser polarimetry parameters, sensitivity and cutoff values for scanning laser polarimetry deviation map algorithms at different specificity values (80%, 90%, and 95%) in the detection of glaucoma, and correlations between the algorithms of scanning laser polarimetry and of the pattern deviation derived from Humphrey field analyzer testing. There were significant differences between the glaucoma group and normal subjects in the mean parametric values of the temporal, superior, nasal, inferior, temporal (TSNIT) average, superior average, inferior average, and TSNIT standard deviation (SD) (P<0.05). The sensitivity and specificity of each scanning laser polarimetry variable was as follows: TSNIT, 44.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39.8%-49.8%) and 100% (95.4%-100%); superior average, 30% (25.5%-34.5%) and 97% (93.5%-100%); inferior average, 45.7% (42.2%-49.2%) and 100% (95.8%-100%); and TSNIT SD, 30% (25.9%-34.1%) and 97% (93.2%-100%), respectively (when abnormal was defined as P<0.05). Based on nerve fiber indicator cutoff values of > or =30 and > or =51 to indicate glaucoma, sensitivities were 54.3% (50.1%-58.5%) and 10% (6.4%-13.6%), and specificities were 97% (93.2%-100%) and 100% (95.8%-100%), respectively. The range of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves using the scanning laser polarimetry deviation map algorithm was 0.790 to 0.879. Overall sensitivities combining each probability scale and severity score at 80%, 90%, and 95% specificities were 90.0% (95% CI, 86.4%-93.6%), 71.4% (67.4%-75.4%), and 60.0% (56.2%-63.8%), respectively. There was a statistically significant correlation between the scanning laser polarimetry severity score and the VF severity score (R2 = 0.360, P<0.001). Scanning laser polarimetry parameters may not be sufficiently sensitive to detect glaucomatous patients with localized VF damage. Our algorithm using the scanning laser polarimetry deviation map may enhance the understanding of scanning laser polarimetry printouts in terms of the locality, deviation size, and severity of localized retinal nerve fiber layer defects in eyes with localized VF loss.

Application of Local Linear Embedding to Nonlinear Exploratory Latent Structure Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Haonan; Iyer, Hari

2007-01-01

In this paper we discuss the use of a recent dimension reduction technique called Locally Linear Embedding, introduced by Roweis and Saul, for performing an exploratory latent structure analysis. The coordinate variables from the locally linear embedding describing the manifold on which the data reside serve as the latent variable scores. We…

A stacking ensemble learning framework for annual river ice breakup dates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wei; Trevor, Bernard

2018-06-01

River ice breakup dates (BDs) are not merely a proxy indicator of climate variability and change, but a direct concern in the management of local ice-caused flooding. A framework of stacking ensemble learning for annual river ice BDs was developed, which included two-level components: member and combining models. The member models described the relations between BD and their affecting indicators; the combining models linked the predicted BD by each member models with the observed BD. Especially, Bayesian regularization back-propagation artificial neural network (BRANN), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were employed as both member and combining models. The candidate combining models also included the simple average methods (SAM). The input variables for member models were selected by a hybrid filter and wrapper method. The performances of these models were examined using the leave-one-out cross validation. As the largest unregulated river in Alberta, Canada with ice jams frequently occurring in the vicinity of Fort McMurray, the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray was selected as the study area. The breakup dates and candidate affecting indicators in 1980-2015 were collected. The results showed that, the BRANN member models generally outperformed the ANFIS member models in terms of better performances and simpler structures. The difference between the R and MI rankings of inputs in the optimal member models may imply that the linear correlation based filter method would be feasible to generate a range of candidate inputs for further screening through other wrapper or embedded IVS methods. The SAM and BRANN combining models generally outperformed all member models. The optimal SAM combining model combined two BRANN member models and improved upon them in terms of average squared errors by 14.6% and 18.1% respectively. In this study, for the first time, the stacking ensemble learning was applied to forecasting of river ice breakup dates, which appeared promising for other river ice forecasting problems.

Combining local scaling and global methods to detect soil pore space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Sotoca, Juan Jose; Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Grau, Juan B.; Tarquis, Ana M.

2017-04-01

The characterization of the spatial distribution of soil pore structures is essential to obtain different parameters that will influence in several models related to water flow and/or microbial growth processes. The first step in pore structure characterization is obtaining soil images that best approximate reality. Over the last decade, major technological advances in X-ray computed tomography (CT) have allowed for the investigation and reconstruction of natural porous media architectures at very fine scales. The subsequent step is delimiting the pore structure (pore space) from the CT soil images applying a thresholding. Many times we could find CT-scan images that show low contrast at the solid-void interface that difficult this step. Different delimitation methods can result in different spatial distributions of pores influencing the parameters used in the models. Recently, new local segmentation method using local greyscale value (GV) concentration variabilities, based on fractal concepts, has been presented. This method creates singularity maps to measure the GV concentration at each point. The C-A method was combined with the singularity map approach (Singularity-CA method) to define local thresholds that can be applied to binarize CT images. Comparing this method with classical methods, such as Otsu and Maximum Entropy, we observed that more pores can be detected mainly due to its ability to amplify anomalous concentrations. However, it delineated many small pores that were incorrect. In this work, we present an improve version of Singularity-CA method that avoid this problem basically combining it with the global classical methods. References Martín-Sotoca, J.J., A. Saa-Requejo, J.B. Grau, A.M. Tarquis. New segmentation method based on fractal properties using singularity maps. Geoderma, 287, 40-53, 2017. Martín-Sotoca, J.J, A. Saa-Requejo, J.B. Grau, A.M. Tarquis. Local 3D segmentation of soil pore space based on fractal properties using singularity maps. Geoderma, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.11.029. Torre, Iván G., Juan C. Losada and A.M. Tarquis. Multiscaling properties of soil images. Biosystems Engineering, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2016.11.006.

Influence of local calibration on the quality of online wet weather discharge monitoring: feedback from five international case studies.

PubMed

Caradot, Nicolas; Sonnenberg, Hauke; Rouault, Pascale; Gruber, Günter; Hofer, Thomas; Torres, Andres; Pesci, Maria; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2015-01-01

This paper reports about experiences gathered from five online monitoring campaigns in the sewer systems of Berlin (Germany), Graz (Austria), Lyon (France) and Bogota (Colombia) using ultraviolet-visible (UV-VIS) spectrometers and turbidimeters. Online probes are useful for the measurement of highly dynamic processes, e.g. combined sewer overflows (CSO), storm events, and river impacts. The influence of local calibration on the quality of online chemical oxygen demand (COD) measurements of wet weather discharges has been assessed. Results underline the need to establish local calibration functions for both UV-VIS spectrometers and turbidimeters. It is suggested that practitioners calibrate locally their probes using at least 15-20 samples. However, these samples should be collected over several events and cover most of the natural variability of the measured concentration. For this reason, the use of automatic peristaltic samplers in parallel to online monitoring is recommended with short representative sampling campaigns during wet weather discharges. Using reliable calibration functions, COD loads of CSO and storm events can be estimated with a relative uncertainty of approximately 20%. If no local calibration is established, concentrations and loads are estimated with a high error rate, questioning the reliability and meaning of the online measurement. Similar results have been obtained for total suspended solids measurements.

Recent developments in tissue-type imaging (TTI) for planning and monitoring treatment of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Feleppa, Ernest J; Porter, Christopher R; Ketterling, Jeffrey; Lee, Paul; Dasgupta, Shreedevi; Urban, Stella; Kalisz, Andrew

2004-07-01

Because current methods of imaging prostate cancer are inadequate, biopsies cannot be effectively guided and treatment cannot be effectively planned and targeted. Therefore, our research is aimed at ultrasonically characterizing cancerous prostate tissue so that we can image it more effectively and thereby provide improved means of detecting, treating and monitoring prostate cancer. We base our characterization methods on spectrum analysis of radiofrequency (rf) echo signals combined with clinical variables such as prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Tissue typing using these parameters is performed by artificial neural networks. We employed and evaluated different approaches to data partitioning into training, validation, and test sets and different neural network configuration options. In this manner, we sought to determine what neural network configuration is optimal for these data and also to assess possible bias that might exist due to correlations among different data entries among the data for a given patient. The classification efficacy of each neural network configuration and data-partitioning method was measured using relative-operating-characteristic (ROC) methods. Neural network classification based on spectral parameters combined with clinical data generally produced ROC-curve areas of 0.80 compared to curve areas of 0.64 for conventional transrectal ultrasound imaging combined with clinical data. We then used the optimal neural network configuration to generate lookup tables that translate local spectral parameter values and global clinical-variable values into pixel values in tissue-type images (TTIs). TTIs continue to show cancerous regions successfully, and may prove to be particularly useful clinically in combination with other ultrasonic and nonultrasonic methods, e.g., magnetic-resonance spectroscopy.

Recent Developments in Tissue-type Imaging(TTI) for Planning and Monitoring Treatment of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Feleppa, Ernest J.; Porter, Christopher R.; Ketterling, Jeffrey; Lee, Paul; Dasgupta, Shreedevi; Urban, Stella; Kalisz, Andrew

2006-01-01

Because current methods of imaging prostate cancer are inadequate, biopsies cannot be effectively guided and treatment cannot be effectively planned and targeted. Therefore, our research is aimed at ultrasonically characterizing cancerous prostate tissue so that we can image it more effectively and thereby provide improved means of detecting, treating and monitoring prostate cancer. We base our characterization methods on spectrum analysis of radio frequency (rf) echo signals combined with clinical variables such as prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Tissue typing using these parameters is performed by artificial neural networks. We employedand evaluated different approaches to data partitioning into training, validation, and test sets and different neural network configuration options. In this manner, we sought to determine what neural network configuration is optimal for these data and also to assess possible bias that might exist due to correlations among different data entries among the data for a given patient. The classification efficacy of each neural network configuration and data-partitioning method was measured using relative-operating-characteristic (ROC) methods. Neural network classification based on spectral parameters combined with clinical data generally produced ROC-curve areas of 0.80 compared to curve areas of 0.64 for conventional transrectal ultrasound imaging combined with clinical data. We then used the optimal neural network configuration to generate lookup tables that translate local spectral parameter values and global clinical-variable values into pixel values in tissue-type images (TTIs). TTIs continue to show can cerous regions successfully, and may prove to be particularly useful clinically in combination with other ultrasonic and nonultrasonic methods, e.g., magnetic-resonance spectroscopy. PMID:15754797

MIP models and hybrid algorithms for simultaneous job splitting and scheduling on unrelated parallel machines.

PubMed

Eroglu, Duygu Yilmaz; Ozmutlu, H Cenk

2014-01-01

We developed mixed integer programming (MIP) models and hybrid genetic-local search algorithms for the scheduling problem of unrelated parallel machines with job sequence and machine-dependent setup times and with job splitting property. The first contribution of this paper is to introduce novel algorithms which make splitting and scheduling simultaneously with variable number of subjobs. We proposed simple chromosome structure which is constituted by random key numbers in hybrid genetic-local search algorithm (GAspLA). Random key numbers are used frequently in genetic algorithms, but it creates additional difficulty when hybrid factors in local search are implemented. We developed algorithms that satisfy the adaptation of results of local search into the genetic algorithms with minimum relocation operation of genes' random key numbers. This is the second contribution of the paper. The third contribution of this paper is three developed new MIP models which are making splitting and scheduling simultaneously. The fourth contribution of this paper is implementation of the GAspLAMIP. This implementation let us verify the optimality of GAspLA for the studied combinations. The proposed methods are tested on a set of problems taken from the literature and the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

High performance computation of landscape genomic models including local indicators of spatial association.

PubMed

Stucki, S; Orozco-terWengel, P; Forester, B R; Duruz, S; Colli, L; Masembe, C; Negrini, R; Landguth, E; Jones, M R; Bruford, M W; Taberlet, P; Joost, S

2017-09-01

With the increasing availability of both molecular and topo-climatic data, the main challenges facing landscape genomics - that is the combination of landscape ecology with population genomics - include processing large numbers of models and distinguishing between selection and demographic processes (e.g. population structure). Several methods address the latter, either by estimating a null model of population history or by simultaneously inferring environmental and demographic effects. Here we present samβada, an approach designed to study signatures of local adaptation, with special emphasis on high performance computing of large-scale genetic and environmental data sets. samβada identifies candidate loci using genotype-environment associations while also incorporating multivariate analyses to assess the effect of many environmental predictor variables. This enables the inclusion of explanatory variables representing population structure into the models to lower the occurrences of spurious genotype-environment associations. In addition, samβada calculates local indicators of spatial association for candidate loci to provide information on whether similar genotypes tend to cluster in space, which constitutes a useful indication of the possible kinship between individuals. To test the usefulness of this approach, we carried out a simulation study and analysed a data set from Ugandan cattle to detect signatures of local adaptation with samβada, bayenv, lfmm and an F ST outlier method (FDIST approach in arlequin) and compare their results. samβada - an open source software for Windows, Linux and Mac OS X available at http://lasig.epfl.ch/sambada - outperforms other approaches and better suits whole-genome sequence data processing. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Bayesian hierarchical model with spatial variable selection: the effect of weather on insurance claims

PubMed Central

Scheel, Ida; Ferkingstad, Egil; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Haug, Ola; Hinnerichsen, Mikkel; Meze-Hausken, Elisabeth

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, this model is fitted on daily weather and insurance data from each of the 319 municipalities which constitute southern and central Norway for the period 1997–2006. Precise out-of-sample predictions validate the model. Our results show interesting regional patterns in the effect of different weather covariates. In addition to being useful for insurance pricing, our model can be used for short-term predictions based on weather forecasts and for long-term predictions based on downscaled climate models. PMID:23396890

Specific conditions of distress in the dental situation.

PubMed

Hentschel, U; Allander, L; Winholt, A S

1977-01-01

The general feeling of distress in the dental situation has been studied in 60 female dental patients and correlated to the following variables: Experimentally evaluated sensitivity to pain, self-rating and the dentist's rating of sensitivity to pain, the pain-threshold value in the teeth, the need of local anesthesia, extraversion-introversion, neuroticism, and some percept-genetic psychological measures of adaptive behavior. The subjects have also answered a questionnaire for grading their distress in regard to different aspects of the treatment-situation, which were combined into eight groups using factor analysis and then correlated to the general distress. The variables having a significant relation to distress in the dental situation were: the dentist's rating of the patient's sensitivity, the need of anesthesia, four groups of treatment-components and two of the percept-genetic measures. There was also a certain relation to the pain threshold in the teeth.

Effects of a cognitive dual task on variability and local dynamic stability in sustained repetitive arm movements using principal component analysis: a pilot study.

PubMed

Longo, Alessia; Federolf, Peter; Haid, Thomas; Meulenbroek, Ruud

2018-06-01

In many daily jobs, repetitive arm movements are performed for extended periods of time under continuous cognitive demands. Even highly monotonous tasks exhibit an inherent motor variability and subtle fluctuations in movement stability. Variability and stability are different aspects of system dynamics, whose magnitude may be further affected by a cognitive load. Thus, the aim of the study was to explore and compare the effects of a cognitive dual task on the variability and local dynamic stability in a repetitive bimanual task. Thirteen healthy volunteers performed the repetitive motor task with and without a concurrent cognitive task of counting aloud backwards in multiples of three. Upper-body 3D kinematics were collected and postural reconfigurations-the variability related to the volunteer's postural change-were determined through a principal component analysis-based procedure. Subsequently, the most salient component was selected for the analysis of (1) cycle-to-cycle spatial and temporal variability, and (2) local dynamic stability as reflected by the largest Lyapunov exponent. Finally, end-point variability was evaluated as a control measure. The dual cognitive task proved to increase the temporal variability and reduce the local dynamic stability, marginally decrease endpoint variability, and substantially lower the incidence of postural reconfigurations. Particularly, the latter effect is considered to be relevant for the prevention of work-related musculoskeletal disorders since reduced variability in sustained repetitive tasks might increase the risk of overuse injuries.

Localization, structure and polymorphism of two paralogous Xenopus laevis mitochondrial malate dehydrogenase genes.

PubMed

Tlapakova, Tereza; Krylov, Vladimir; Macha, Jaroslav

2005-01-01

Two paralogous mitochondrial malate dehydrogenase 2 (Mdh2) genes of Xenopus laevis have been cloned and sequenced, revealing 95% identity. Fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) combined with tyramide amplification discriminates both genes; Mdh2a was localized into chromosome q3 and Mdh2b into chromosome q8. One kb cDNA probes detect both genes with 85% accuracy. The remaining signals were on the paralogous counterpart. Introns interrupt coding sequences at the same nucleotide as defined for mouse. Restriction polymorphism has been detected in the first intron of Mdh2a, while the individual variability in intron 6 of Mdh2b gene is represented by an insertion of incomplete retrotransposon L1Xl. Rates of nucleotide substitutions indicate that both genes are under similar evolutionary constraints. X. laevis Mdh2 genes can be used as markers for physical mapping and linkage analysis.

Imaging electric field dynamics with graphene optoelectronics.

PubMed

Horng, Jason; Balch, Halleh B; McGuire, Allister F; Tsai, Hsin-Zon; Forrester, Patrick R; Crommie, Michael F; Cui, Bianxiao; Wang, Feng

2016-12-16

The use of electric fields for signalling and control in liquids is widespread, spanning bioelectric activity in cells to electrical manipulation of microstructures in lab-on-a-chip devices. However, an appropriate tool to resolve the spatio-temporal distribution of electric fields over a large dynamic range has yet to be developed. Here we present a label-free method to image local electric fields in real time and under ambient conditions. Our technique combines the unique gate-variable optical transitions of graphene with a critically coupled planar waveguide platform that enables highly sensitive detection of local electric fields with a voltage sensitivity of a few microvolts, a spatial resolution of tens of micrometres and a frequency response over tens of kilohertz. Our imaging platform enables parallel detection of electric fields over a large field of view and can be tailored to broad applications spanning lab-on-a-chip device engineering to analysis of bioelectric phenomena.

Novel Intrinsic Ignition Method Measuring Local-Global Integration Characterizes Wakefulness and Deep Sleep

PubMed Central

Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Sanjuán, Ana

2017-01-01

Abstract A precise definition of a brain state has proven elusive. Here, we introduce the novel local-global concept of intrinsic ignition characterizing the dynamical complexity of different brain states. Naturally occurring intrinsic ignition events reflect the capability of a given brain area to propagate neuronal activity to other regions, giving rise to different levels of integration. The ignitory capability of brain regions is computed by the elicited level of integration for each intrinsic ignition event in each brain region, averaged over all events. This intrinsic ignition method is shown to clearly distinguish human neuroimaging data of two fundamental brain states (wakefulness and deep sleep). Importantly, whole-brain computational modelling of this data shows that at the optimal working point is found where there is maximal variability of the intrinsic ignition across brain regions. Thus, combining whole brain models with intrinsic ignition can provide novel insights into underlying mechanisms of brain states. PMID:28966977

Double Diffusive Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Mixed Convective Slip Flow along a Radiating Moving Vertical Flat Plate with Convective Boundary Condition

PubMed Central

Rashidi, Mohammad M.; Kavyani, Neda; Abelman, Shirley; Uddin, Mohammed J.; Freidoonimehr, Navid

2014-01-01

In this study combined heat and mass transfer by mixed convective flow along a moving vertical flat plate with hydrodynamic slip and thermal convective boundary condition is investigated. Using similarity variables, the governing nonlinear partial differential equations are converted into a system of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The transformed equations are then solved using a semi-numerical/analytical method called the differential transform method and results are compared with numerical results. Close agreement is found between the present method and the numerical method. Effects of the controlling parameters, including convective heat transfer, magnetic field, buoyancy ratio, hydrodynamic slip, mixed convective, Prandtl number and Schmidt number are investigated on the dimensionless velocity, temperature and concentration profiles. In addition effects of different parameters on the skin friction factor, , local Nusselt number, , and local Sherwood number are shown and explained through tables. PMID:25343360

The MAC aerosol climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, S.

2015-12-01

Aerosol is highly diverse in space and time. And many different aerosol optical properties are needed (consistent to each other) for the determination of radiative effects. To sidestep a complex (and uncertain) aerosol treatment (emission to mass to optics) a monthly gridded climatology for aerosol properties has been developed. This MPI Aerosol Climatology (MAC) is strongly tied to observational statistics for aerosol column optical properties by AERONET (over land) and by MAN (over oceans). To fill spatial gaps, to address decadal change and to address vertical variability, these sparsely distributed local data are extended with central data of an ensemble of output from global models with complex aerosol modules. This data merging in performed for aerosol column amount (AOD), for aerosol size (AOD,fine) and for aerosol absorption (AAOD). The resulting MAC aerosol climatology is an example for the combination of high quality local observations with spatial, temporal and vertical context from model simulations.

A Method for WD40 Repeat Detection and Secondary Structure Prediction

PubMed Central

Wang, Yang; Jiang, Fan; Zhuo, Zhu; Wu, Xian-Hui; Wu, Yun-Dong

2013-01-01

WD40-repeat proteins (WD40s), as one of the largest protein families in eukaryotes, play vital roles in assembling protein-protein/DNA/RNA complexes. WD40s fold into similar β-propeller structures despite diversified sequences. A program WDSP (WD40 repeat protein Structure Predictor) has been developed to accurately identify WD40 repeats and predict their secondary structures. The method is designed specifically for WD40 proteins by incorporating both local residue information and non-local family-specific structural features. It overcomes the problem of highly diversified protein sequences and variable loops. In addition, WDSP achieves a better prediction in identifying multiple WD40-domain proteins by taking the global combination of repeats into consideration. In secondary structure prediction, the average Q3 accuracy of WDSP in jack-knife test reaches 93.7%. A disease related protein LRRK2 was used as a representive example to demonstrate the structure prediction. PMID:23776530

Novel Intrinsic Ignition Method Measuring Local-Global Integration Characterizes Wakefulness and Deep Sleep.

PubMed

Deco, Gustavo; Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Laufs, Helmut; Sanjuán, Ana; Kringelbach, Morten L

2017-01-01

A precise definition of a brain state has proven elusive. Here, we introduce the novel local-global concept of intrinsic ignition characterizing the dynamical complexity of different brain states. Naturally occurring intrinsic ignition events reflect the capability of a given brain area to propagate neuronal activity to other regions, giving rise to different levels of integration. The ignitory capability of brain regions is computed by the elicited level of integration for each intrinsic ignition event in each brain region, averaged over all events. This intrinsic ignition method is shown to clearly distinguish human neuroimaging data of two fundamental brain states (wakefulness and deep sleep). Importantly, whole-brain computational modelling of this data shows that at the optimal working point is found where there is maximal variability of the intrinsic ignition across brain regions. Thus, combining whole brain models with intrinsic ignition can provide novel insights into underlying mechanisms of brain states.

A biomechanical testing system to determine micromotion between hip implant and femur accounting for deformation of the hip implant: Assessment of the influence of rigid body assumptions on micromotions measurements.

PubMed

Leuridan, Steven; Goossens, Quentin; Roosen, Jorg; Pastrav, Leonard; Denis, Kathleen; Mulier, Michiel; Desmet, Wim; Vander Sloten, Jos

2017-02-01

Accurate pre-clinical evaluation of the initial stability of new cementless hip stems using in vitro micromotion measurements is an important step in the design process to assess the new stem's potential. Several measuring systems, linear variable displacement transducer-based and other, require assuming bone or implant to be rigid to obtain micromotion values or to calculate derived quantities such as relative implant tilting. An alternative linear variable displacement transducer-based measuring system not requiring a rigid body assumption was developed in this study. The system combined advantages of local unidirectional and frame-and-bracket micromotion measuring concepts. The influence and possible errors that would be made by adopting a rigid body assumption were quantified. Furthermore, as the system allowed emulating local unidirectional and frame-and-bracket systems, the influence of adopting rigid body assumptions were also analyzed for both concepts. Synthetic and embalmed bone models were tested in combination with primary and revision implants. Single-legged stance phase loading was applied to the implant - bone constructs. Adopting a rigid body assumption resulted in an overestimation of mediolateral micromotion of up to 49.7μm at more distal measuring locations. Maximal average relative rotational motion was overestimated by 0.12° around the anteroposterior axis. Frontal and sagittal tilting calculations based on a unidirectional measuring concept underestimated the true tilting by an order of magnitude. Non-rigid behavior is a factor that should not be dismissed in micromotion stability evaluations of primary and revision femoral implants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experiences in multiyear combined state-parameter estimation with an ecosystem model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Ehouarn; Samuelsen, Annette; Bertino, Laurent; Mouysset, Sandrine

2015-12-01

A sequence of one-year combined state-parameter estimation experiments has been conducted in a North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean configuration of the coupled physical-biogeochemical model HYCOM-NORWECOM over the period 2007-2010. The aim is to evaluate the ability of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to calibrate ecosystem model parameters in a pre-operational setting, namely the production of the MyOcean pilot reanalysis of the Arctic biology. For that purpose, four biological parameters (two phyto- and two zooplankton mortality rates) are estimated by assimilating weekly data such as, satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature, along-track Sea Level Anomalies, ice concentrations and chlorophyll-a concentrations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The set of optimized parameters locally exhibits seasonal variations suggesting that time-dependent parameters should be used in ocean ecosystem models. A clustering analysis of the optimized parameters is performed in order to identify consistent ecosystem regions. In the north part of the domain, where the ecosystem model is the most reliable, most of them can be associated with Longhurst provinces and new provinces emerge in the Arctic Ocean. However, the clusters do not coincide anymore with the Longhurst provinces in the Tropics due to large model errors. Regarding the ecosystem state variables, the assimilation of satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration leads to significant reduction of the RMS errors in the observed variables during the first year, i.e. 2008, compared to a free run simulation. However, local filter divergences of the parameter component occur in 2009 and result in an increase in the RMS error at the time of the spring bloom.

Variability in Pediatric Infectious Disease Consultants' Recommendations for Management of Community-Acquired Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Hersh, Adam L.; Shapiro, Daniel J.; Newland, Jason G.; Polgreen, Philip M.; Beekmann, Susan E.; Shah, Samir S.

2011-01-01

Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common childhood infection. CAP complications, such as parapneumonic empyema (PPE), are increasing and are frequently caused by antibiotic-resistant organisms. No clinical guidelines currently exist for management of pediatric CAP and no published data exist about variations in antibiotic prescribing patterns. Our objectives were to describe variation in CAP clinical management for hospitalized children by pediatric infectious disease consultants and to examine associations between recommended antibiotic regimens and local antibiotic resistance levels. Methods We surveyed pediatric members of the Emerging Infections Network, which consists of 259 pediatric infectious disease physicians. Participants responded regarding their recommended empiric antibiotic regimens for hospitalized children with CAP with and without PPE and their recommendations for duration of therapy. Participants also provided information about the prevalence of penicillin non-susceptible S. pneumoniae and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in their community. Results We received 148 responses (57%). For uncomplicated CAP, respondents were divided between recommending beta-lactams alone (55%) versus beta-lactams in combination with another class (40%). For PPE, most recommended a combination of a beta-lactam plus an anti-MRSA agent, however, they were divided between clindamycin (44%) and vancomycin (57%). The relationship between reported antibiotic resistance and empiric regimen was mixed. We found no relationship between aminopenicillin use and prevalence of penicillin non-suscepetible S. pneumoniae or clindamycin use and clindamycin resistance, however, respondents were more likely to recommend an anti-MRSA agent when MRSA prevalence increased. Conclusions Substantial variability exists in recommendations for CAP management. Development of clinical guidelines via antimicrobial stewardship programs and dissemination of data about local antibiotic resistance patterns represent opportunities to improve care. PMID:21655259

A Study of Locale-Wise Differences in Certain Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puar, Surjit Singh

2012-01-01

The present study has been designed to investigate the locale-wise differences among high school students on the basis of certain cognitive variables like general mental ability and academic achievement and non-cognitive variables such as anxiety, emotional maturity and social maturity. The study was conducted over a sample of 400 (200 boys and…

EUV local CDU healing performance and modeling capability towards 5nm node

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jee, Tae Kwon; Timoshkov, Vadim; Choi, Peter; Rio, David; Tsai, Yu-Cheng; Yaegashi, Hidetami; Koike, Kyohei; Fonseca, Carlos; Schoofs, Stijn

2017-10-01

Both local variability and optical proximity correction (OPC) errors are big contributors to the edge placement error (EPE) budget which is closely related to the device yield. The post-litho contact hole healing will be demonstrated to meet after-etch local variability specifications using a low dose, 30mJ/cm2 dose-to-size, positive tone developed (PTD) resist with relevant throughput in high volume manufacturing (HVM). The total local variability of the node 5nm (N5) contact holes will be characterized in terms of local CD uniformity (LCDU), local placement error (LPE), and contact edge roughness (CER) using a statistical methodology. The CD healing process has complex etch proximity effects, so the OPC prediction accuracy is challenging to meet EPE requirements for the N5. Thus, the prediction accuracy of an after-etch model will be investigated and discussed using ASML Tachyon OPC model.

Communication cost of simulating Bell correlations.

PubMed

Toner, B F; Bacon, D

2003-10-31

What classical resources are required to simulate quantum correlations? For the simplest and most important case of local projective measurements on an entangled Bell pair state, we show that exact simulation is possible using local hidden variables augmented by just one bit of classical communication. Certain quantum teleportation experiments, which teleport a single qubit, therefore admit a local hidden variables model.

Earth Structure, Ice Mass Changes, and the Local Dynamic Geoid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, C.; Simons, F. J.

2014-12-01

Spherical Slepian localization functions are a useful method for studying regional mass changes observed by satellite gravimetry. By projecting data onto a sparse basis set, the local field can be estimated more easily than with the full spherical harmonic basis. We have used this method previously to estimate the ice mass change in Greenland from GRACE data, and it can also be applied to other planetary problems such as global magnetic fields. Earth's static geoid, in contrast to the time-variable field, is in large part related to the internal density and rheological structure of the Earth. Past studies have used dynamic geoid kernels to relate this density structure and the internal deformation it induces to the surface geopotential at large scales. These now classical studies of the eighties and nineties were able to estimate the mantle's radial rheological profile, placing constraints on the ratio between upper and lower mantle viscosity. By combining these two methods, spherical Slepian localization and dynamic geoid kernels, we have created local dynamic geoid kernels which are sensitive only to density variations within an area of interest. With these kernels we can estimate the approximate local radial rheological structure that best explains the locally observed geoid on a regional basis. First-order differences of the regional mantle viscosity structure are accessible to this technique. In this contribution we present our latest, as yet unpublished results on the geographical and temporal pattern of ice mass changes in Antarctica over the past decade, and we introduce a new approach to extract regional information about the internal structure of the Earth from the static global gravity field. Both sets of results are linked in terms of the relevant physics, but also in being developed from the marriage of Slepian functions and geoid kernels. We make predictions on the utility of our approach to derive fully three-dimensional rheological Earth models, to be used for corrections for glacio-isostatic adjustment, as necessary for the interpretation of time-variable gravity observations in terms of ice sheet mass-balance studies.

Life cycles of transient planetary waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nathan, Terrence

1993-01-01

In recent years there has been an increasing effort devoted to understanding the physical and dynamical processes that govern the global-scale circulation of the atmosphere. This effort has been motivated, in part, from: (1) a wealth of new satellite data; (2) an urgent need to assess the potential impact of chlorofluorocarbons on our climate; (3) an inadequate understanding of the interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere and the role that such interactions play in short and long-term climate variability; and (4) the realization that addressing changes in our global climate requires understanding the interactions among various components of the earth system. The research currently being carried out represents an effort to address some of these issues by carrying out studies that combine radiation, ozone, seasonal thermal forcing and dynamics. Satellite and ground-based data that is already available is being used to construct basic states for our analytical and numerical models. Significant accomplishments from 1991-1992 are presented and include the following: ozone-dynamics interaction; (2) periodic local forcing and low frequency variability; and (3) steady forcing and low frequency variability.

Predicting Bobsled Pushing Ability from Various Combine Testing Events.

PubMed

Tomasevicz, Curtis L; Ransone, Jack W; Bach, Christopher W

2018-03-12

The requisite combination of speed, power, and strength necessary for a bobsled push athlete coupled with the difficulty in directly measuring pushing ability makes selecting effective push crews challenging. Current practices by USA Bobsled and Skeleton (USABS) utilize field combine testing to assess and identify specifically selected performance variables in an attempt to best predict push performance abilities. Combine data consisting of 11 physical performance variables were collected from 75 subjects across two winter Olympic qualification years (2009 and 2013). These variables were sprints of 15-, 30-, and 60 m, a flying 30 m sprint, a standing broad jump, a shot toss, squat, power clean, body mass, and dry-land brake and side bobsled pushes. Discriminant Analysis (DA) in addition to Principle Component Analysis (PCA) was used to investigate two cases (Case 1: Olympians vs. non-Olympians; Case 2: National Team vs. non-National Team). Using these 11 variables, DA led to a classification rule that proved capable of identifying Olympians from non-Olympians and National Team members from non-National Team members with 9.33% and 14.67% misclassification rates, respectively. The PCA was used to find similar test variables within the combine that provided redundant or useless data. After eliminating the unnecessary variables, DA on the new combinations showed that 8 (Case 1) and 20 (Case 2) other combinations with fewer performance variables yielded misclassification rates as low as 6.67% and 13.33% respectively. Utilizing fewer performance variables can allow governing bodies in many other sports to create more appropriate combine testing that maximize accuracy, while minimizing irrelevant and redundant strategies.

Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

2017-04-01

Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

European transition to a low carbon electricity system using a mix of variable renewable energies: carbon saving trajectories as functions of production and storage capacity.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2016-04-01

Today, most of the produced energy is generated from fossil energy sources (i.e. coal, petroleum). As a result, the energy sector is still the main source of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. For limiting greenhouse gas emission, a transition from fossil to renewable energy is required, increasing gradually the fraction energy coming from variable renewable energy (i.e. solar power, wind power and run-of-the river hydropower, hereafter denoted as VRE). VRE penetration, i.e. the percentage of demand satisfied by variable renewables assuming no storage capacity, is hampered by their variable and un-controllable features. Many studies show that combining different VRE over space smoothes their variability and increases their global penetration by a better match of demand fluctuations. When the demand is not fully supplied by the VRE generation, backup generation is required from stored energy (mostly from dams) or fossil sources, the latter being associated with high greenhouse gas emission. Thus the VRE penetration is a direct indicator of carbon savings and basically depends on the VRE installed capacity, its mix features, and on the installed storage capacity. In this study we analyze the European transition to a low carbon electricity system. Over a selection of representative regions we analyze carbon saving trajectories as functions of VRE production and storage capacities for different scenarios mixing one to three VRE with non-renewables. We show substantial differences between trajectories when the mix of sources is far from the local optimums, when the storage capacity evolves. We bring new elements of reflection about the effect of transport grid features from local independent systems to a European "copper plate". This work is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; Project FP7-ENV-2012 number: 308601; http://www.complex.ac.uk/).

Assessing the biophysical and socio-economic potential of Sustainable Land Management and Water Harvesting Technologies for rainfed agriculture across semi-arid Africa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, Brian; Fleskens, Luuk; Kirkby, Mike

2016-04-01

Stakeholders in recent EU projects identified soil erosion as the most frequent driver of land degradation in semi-arid environments. In a number of sites, historic land management and rainfall variability are recognised as contributing to the serious environmental impact. In order to consider the potential of sustainable land management and water harvesting techniques stakeholders and study sites from the projects selected and trialled both local technologies and promising technologies reported from other sites . The combined PESERA and DESMICE modelling approach considered the regional effects of the technologies in combating desertification both in environmental and socio-economical terms. Initial analysis was based on long term average climate data with the model run to equilibrium. Current analysis, primarily based on the WAHARA study sites considers rainfall variability more explicitly in time series mode. The PESERA-DESMICE approach considers the difference between a baseline scenario and a (water harvesting) technology scenario, typically, in terms of productivity, financial viability and scope for reducing erosion risk. A series of 50 year rainfall realisations are generated from observed data to capture a full range of the climatic variability. Each realisation provides a unique time-series of rainfall and through modelling can provide a simulated time-series of crop yield and erosion risk for both baseline conditions and technology scenarios. Subsequent realisations and model simulations add to an envelope of the potential crop yield and cost-benefit relations. The development of such envelopes helps express the agricultural and erosional risk associated with climate variability and the potential for conservation measures to absorb the risk, highlighting the probability of achieving a given crop yield or erosion limit. Information that can directly inform or influence the local adoption of conservation measures under the climatic variability in semi-arid areas

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

PubMed Central

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID:27761304

Object matching using a locally affine invariant and linear programming techniques.

PubMed

Li, Hongsheng; Huang, Xiaolei; He, Lei

2013-02-01

In this paper, we introduce a new matching method based on a novel locally affine-invariant geometric constraint and linear programming techniques. To model and solve the matching problem in a linear programming formulation, all geometric constraints should be able to be exactly or approximately reformulated into a linear form. This is a major difficulty for this kind of matching algorithm. We propose a novel locally affine-invariant constraint which can be exactly linearized and requires a lot fewer auxiliary variables than other linear programming-based methods do. The key idea behind it is that each point in the template point set can be exactly represented by an affine combination of its neighboring points, whose weights can be solved easily by least squares. Errors of reconstructing each matched point using such weights are used to penalize the disagreement of geometric relationships between the template points and the matched points. The resulting overall objective function can be solved efficiently by linear programming techniques. Our experimental results on both rigid and nonrigid object matching show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Locally adaptive MR intensity models and MRF-based segmentation of multiple sclerosis lesions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galimzianova, Alfiia; Lesjak, Žiga; Likar, Boštjan; Pernuš, Franjo; Špiclin, Žiga

2015-03-01

Neuroimaging biomarkers are an important paraclinical tool used to characterize a number of neurological diseases, however, their extraction requires accurate and reliable segmentation of normal and pathological brain structures. For MR images of healthy brains the intensity models of normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) in combination with Markov random field (MRF) models are known to give reliable and smooth NABT segmentation. However, the presence of pathology, MR intensity bias and natural tissue-dependent intensity variability altogether represent difficult challenges for a reliable estimation of NABT intensity model based on MR images. In this paper, we propose a novel method for segmentation of normal and pathological structures in brain MR images of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients that is based on locally-adaptive NABT model, a robust method for the estimation of model parameters and a MRF-based segmentation framework. Experiments on multi-sequence brain MR images of 27 MS patients show that, compared to whole-brain model and compared to the widely used Expectation-Maximization Segmentation (EMS) method, the locally-adaptive NABT model increases the accuracy of MS lesion segmentation.

Density of tobacco retail outlets near schools and smoking behaviour among secondary school students.

PubMed

Scully, Maree; McCarthy, Molly; Zacher, Meghan; Warne, Charles; Wakefield, Melanie; White, Victoria

2013-12-01

To investigate whether the density of tobacco retail outlets near schools in Victoria, Australia, is associated with adolescent smoking behaviour. Cross-sectional survey data of 2,044 secondary school students aged 12-17 years was combined with tobacco outlet audit data. Associations between students' self-reported tobacco use and the density of tobacco outlets near schools was examined using multilevel logistic and negative binomial regression models, with cigarette price at local milk bars and key socio-demographic and school-related variables included as covariates. Increased tobacco retail outlet density was associated with a significant increase in the number of cigarettes smoked in the previous seven days among students who smoked in the past month (IRR=1.13; 95% CI 1.02-1.26), but not the odds of smoking in the past month in the larger sample (OR=1.06; 95% CI 0.90-1.24), after controlling for local mean price of cigarettes and socio-demographic and school-related variables. This study suggests there is a positive association between tobacco retail outlet density and cigarette consumption among adolescent smokers, but not smoking prevalence, in the Australian context. There is value in considering policy measures that restrict the supply of tobacco retail outlets in school neighbourhoods as a means of reducing youth cigarette consumption.

Strong topographic sheltering effects lead to spatially complex treeline advance and increased forest density in a subtropical mountain region.

PubMed

Greenwood, Sarah; Chen, Jan-Chang; Chen, Chaur-Tzuhn; Jump, Alistair S

2014-12-01

Altitudinal treelines are typically temperature limited such that increasing temperatures linked to global climate change are causing upslope shifts of treelines worldwide. While such elevational increases are readily predicted based on shifting isotherms, at the regional level the realized response is often much more complex, with topography and local environmental conditions playing an important modifying role. Here, we used repeated aerial photographs in combination with forest inventory data to investigate changes in treeline position in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan over the last 60 years. A highly spatially variable upslope advance of treeline was identified in which topography is a major driver of both treeline form and advance. The changes in treeline position that we observed occurred alongside substantial increases in forest density, and lead to a large increase in overall forest area. These changes will have a significant impact on carbon stocking in the high altitude zone, while the concomitant decrease in alpine grassland area is likely to have negative implications for alpine species. The complex and spatially variable changes that we report highlight the necessity for considering local factors such as topography when attempting to predict species distributional responses to warming climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

PubMed

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

2012-01-01

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

Development of the Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator for prediction of postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit admission risk: a single-center retrospective study.

PubMed

Chan, Diana Xin Hui; Sim, Yilin Eileen; Chan, Yiong Huak; Poopalalingam, Ruban; Abdullah, Hairil Rizal

2018-03-23

Accurate surgical risk prediction is paramount in clinical shared decision making. Existing risk calculators have limited value in local practice due to lack of validation, complexities and inclusion of non-routine variables. We aim to develop a simple, locally derived and validated surgical risk calculator predicting 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay (>24 hours) based on routinely collected preoperative variables. We postulate that accuracy of a clinical history-based scoring tool could be improved by including readily available investigations, such as haemoglobin level and red cell distribution width. Electronic medical records of 90 785 patients, who underwent non-cardiac and non-neuro surgery between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 in Singapore General Hospital, were retrospectively analysed. Patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results, surgical priority and surgical risk were collected. Outcome measures were death within 30 days after surgery and ICU admission. After excluding patients with missing data, the final data set consisted of 79 914 cases, which was divided randomly into derivation (70%) and validation cohort (30%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to construct a single model predicting both outcomes using Odds Ratio (OR) of the risk variables. The ORs were then assigned ranks, which were subsequently used to construct the calculator. Observed mortality was 0.6%. The Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator, consisting of nine variables, was constructed. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) in the derivation and validation cohorts for mortality were 0.934 (0.917-0.950) and 0.934 (0.912-0.956), respectively, while the AUROC for ICU admission was 0.863 (0.848-0.878) and 0.837 (0.808-0.868), respectively. CARES also performed better than the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status classification in terms of AUROC comparison. The development of the CARES surgical risk calculator allows for a simplified yet accurate prediction of both postoperative mortality and need for ICU admission after surgery. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

User localization in complex environments by multimodal combination of GPS, WiFi, RFID, and pedometer technologies.

PubMed

Dao, Trung-Kien; Nguyen, Hung-Long; Pham, Thanh-Thuy; Castelli, Eric; Nguyen, Viet-Tung; Nguyen, Dinh-Van

2014-01-01

Many user localization technologies and methods have been proposed for either indoor or outdoor environments. However, each technology has its own drawbacks. Recently, many researches and designs have been proposed to build a combination of multiple localization technologies system which can provide higher precision results and solve the limitation in each localization technology alone. In this paper, a conceptual design of a general localization platform using combination of multiple localization technologies is introduced. The combination is realized by dividing spaces into grid points. To demonstrate this platform, a system with GPS, RFID, WiFi, and pedometer technologies is established. Experiment results show that the accuracy and availability are improved in comparison with each technology individually.

User Localization in Complex Environments by Multimodal Combination of GPS, WiFi, RFID, and Pedometer Technologies

PubMed Central

Dao, Trung-Kien; Nguyen, Hung-Long; Pham, Thanh-Thuy; Nguyen, Viet-Tung; Nguyen, Dinh-Van

2014-01-01

Many user localization technologies and methods have been proposed for either indoor or outdoor environments. However, each technology has its own drawbacks. Recently, many researches and designs have been proposed to build a combination of multiple localization technologies system which can provide higher precision results and solve the limitation in each localization technology alone. In this paper, a conceptual design of a general localization platform using combination of multiple localization technologies is introduced. The combination is realized by dividing spaces into grid points. To demonstrate this platform, a system with GPS, RFID, WiFi, and pedometer technologies is established. Experiment results show that the accuracy and availability are improved in comparison with each technology individually. PMID:25147866

Main processes of the Atlantic cold tongue interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planton, Yann; Voldoire, Aurore; Giordani, Hervé; Caniaux, Guy

2018-03-01

The interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) is studied by means of a mixed-layer heat budget analysis. A method to classify extreme cold and warm ACT events is proposed and applied to ten various analysis and reanalysis products. This classification allows 5 cold and 5 warm ACT events to be selected over the period 1982-2007. Cold (warm) ACT events are defined by the presence of negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at the center of the equatorial Atlantic in late boreal spring, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic. An ocean general circulation model capable of reconstructing the interannual variability of the ACT correctly is used to demonstrate that cold ACT events develop rapidly from May to June mainly due to intense cooling by vertical mixing and horizontal advection. The simulated cooling at the center of the basin is the result of the combined effects of non-local and local processes. The non-local process is an upwelling associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, which makes the mixed-layer more shallow and preconditions the upper layers to be cooled by an intense heat loss at the base of the mixed-layer, which is amplified by a stronger local injection of energy from the atmosphere. The early cooling by vertical mixing in March is also shown to be a good predictor of June cooling. In July, horizontal advection starts to warm the mixed-layer abnormally and damps SST anomalies. The advection anomalies, which result from changes in the horizontal temperature gradient, are associated in some cases with the propagation of Rossby waves along the equator. During warm ACT events, processes are reversed, generating positive SST anomalies: a downwelling Kelvin wave triggers stratification anomalies and mixed-layer depth anomalies, amplified by a weaker injection of energy from the atmosphere in May-June. In July, warm ACT events are abnormally cooled due to negative horizontal advection anomalies resulting from processes similar to those that occur during cold ACT events. This additional cooling process extends the period of cooling of the ACT, reducing SST anomalies.

Improving Measurement of Trait Competitiveness: A Rasch Analysis of the Revised Competitiveness Index With Samples From New Zealand and US University Students.

PubMed

Krägeloh, Christian U; Medvedev, Oleg N; Hill, Erin M; Webster, Craig S; Booth, Roger J; Henning, Marcus A

2018-01-01

Measuring competitiveness is necessary to fully understand variables affecting student learning. The 14-item Revised Competitiveness Index has become a widely used measure to assess trait competitiveness. The current study reports on a Rasch analysis to investigate the psychometric properties of the Revised Competitiveness Index and to improve its precision for international comparisons. Students were recruited from medical studies at a university in New Zealand, undergraduate health sciences courses at another New Zealand university, and a psychology undergraduate class at a university in the United States. Rasch model estimate parameters were affected by local dependency and item misfit. Best fit to the Rasch model (χ 2 (20) = 15.86, p = .73, person separation index = .95) was obtained for the Enjoyment of Competition subscale after combining locally dependent items into a subtest and discarding the highly misfitting Item 9. The only modifications required to obtain a suitable fit (χ 2 (25) = 25.81, p = .42, person separation index = .77) for the Contentiousness subscale were a subtest to combine two locally dependent items and splitting this subtest by country to deal with differential item functioning. The results support reliability and internal construct validity of the modified Revised Competitiveness Index. Precision of the measure may be enhanced using the ordinal-to-interval conversion algorithms presented here, allowing the use of parametric statistics without breaking fundamental statistical assumptions.

Physical response of a back-barrier estuary to a post-tropical cyclone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beudin, Alexis; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Defne, Zafer; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo

2017-01-01

This paper presents a modeling investigation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport response of Chincoteague Bay (VA/MD, USA) to Hurricane Sandy using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport (COAWST) modeling system. Several simulation scenarios with different combinations of remote and local forces were conducted to identify the dominant physical processes. While 80% of the water level increase in the bay was due to coastal sea level at the peak of the storm, a rich spatial and temporal variability in water surface slope was induced by local winds and waves. Local wind increased vertical mixing, horizontal exchanges, and flushing through the inlets. Remote waves (swell) enhanced southward flow through wave setup gradients between the inlets, and increased locally generated wave heights. Locally generated waves had a negligible effect on water level but reduced the residual flow up to 70% due to enhanced apparent roughness and breaking-induced forces. Locally generated waves dominated bed shear stress and sediment resuspension in the bay. Sediment transport patterns mirrored the interior coastline shape and generated deposition on inundated areas. The bay served as a source of fine sediment to the inner shelf, and the ocean-facing barrier island accumulated sand from landward-directed overwash. Despite the intensity of the storm forcing, the bathymetric changes in the bay were on the order of centimeters. This work demonstrates the spectrum of responses to storm forcing, and highlights the importance of local and remote processes on back-barrier estuarine function.

Interannual Variability in the Position and Strength of the East Asian Jet Stream and Its Relation to Large - scale Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Duo; Zhang, Yang; Wu, Qigang

2013-04-01

East Asian Jet Stream (EASJ) is charactered by obvious interannual variability in strength and position (latitude), with wide impacts on East Asian climate in all seasons. In this study, two indices are established to measure the interannual variability in intensity and position of EAJS. Possible causing factors, including both local signals and non-local large-scale circulation, are examined using NCAP-NCAR reanalysis data to investigate their relations with jet variation. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the interannual variations of EASJ and these factors depends on seasons. In the summer, both the intensity and position of EASJ are closely related to the meridional gradient of local surface temperature, but display no apparent relationship with the larg-scale circulation. In cold seasons (autumn, winter and spring), both the local factor and the large-scale circulation, i.e. the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), play important roles in the interannual variability of the jet intensity. The variability in the jet position, however, is more correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), especially in winter. Diagnostic analysis indicates that transient eddy activity plays an important role in connecting the interannual variability of EASJ position with AO.

The contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asian precipitation and its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Liang; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Stephan, Claudia C.

2018-01-01

We investigate the contribution of the local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asia (EA) precipitation and its interannual variability during 1979-2012. We use and expand the Brubaker et al. (J Clim 6:1077-1089,1993) method, which connects the area-mean precipitation to area-mean evaporation and the horizontal moisture flux into the region. Due to its large landmass and hydrological heterogeneity, EA is divided into five sub-regions: Southeast (SE), Tibetan Plateau (TP), Central East (CE), Northwest (NW) and Northeast (NE). For each region, we first separate the contributions to precipitation of local evaporation from those of the horizontal moisture flux by calculating the precipitation recycling ratio: the fraction of precipitation over a region that originates as evaporation from the same region. Then, we separate the horizontal moisture flux across the region's boundaries by direction. We estimate the contributions of the horizontal moisture fluxes from each direction, as well as the local evaporation, to the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. We find that the major contributors to the mean precipitation are not necessarily those that contribute most to the precipitation interannual variability. Over SE, the moisture flux via the southern boundary dominates the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. Over TP, in winter and spring, the moisture flux via the western boundary dominates the mean precipitation; however, variations in local evaporation dominate the precipitation interannual variability. The western moisture flux is the dominant contributor to the mean precipitation over CE, NW and NE. However, the southern or northern moisture flux or the local evaporation dominates the precipitation interannual variability over these regions, depending on the season. Potential mechanisms associated with interannual variability in the moisture flux are identified for each region. The methods and results presented in this study can be readily applied to model simulations, to identify simulation biases in precipitation that relate to the simulated moisture supplies and transport.

The feasibility of the auto tuning respiratory compensation system with ultrasonic image tracking technique.

PubMed

Chuang, Ho-Chiao; Hsu, Hsiao-Yu; Nieh, Shu-Kan; Tien, Der-Chi

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the feasibility of using the analytical technique of ultrasound images in combination with an auto tumor localization system. During respiration, the activity of breathing in and out causes organs displacement at the lower lobe of the lung, and the maximum displacement range happens in the Superior-Inferior (SI) direction. Therefore, in this study all the tumor positioning is in SI direction under respiratory compensation, in which the compensations are carried out to the organs at the lower lobe and adjacent to the lower lobe of lung.In this research, due to the processes of ultrasound imaging generation, image analysis and signal transmission, when the captured respiratory signals are sent to auto tumor localization system, there was a signal time delay. The total delay time of the entire signal transmission process was 0.254 ± 0.023 seconds (with the lowest standard deviation) after implementing a series of analyses. To compensate for this signal delay time (0.254 ± 0.023 sec), a phase lead compensator (PLC) was designed and built into the auto tumor localization system. By analyzing the impact of the delay time and the respiratory waveforms under different frequencies on the phase lead compensator, an overall system delay time can be configured. Results showed as the respiratory frequency increased, variable value ``a'' and the subsequent gain ``k'' in the controller becomes larger. Moreover, value ``a'' and ``k'' increased as the system delay time increased when the respiratory frequency was fixed. The relationship of value ``a'' and ``k'' to the respiratory frequency can be obtained by using the curve fitting method to compensate for the respiratory motion for tumor localization. Through the comparison of the uncompensated signal and the compensated signal performed by the auto tumor localization system on the simulated respiratory signal, the feasibility of using ultrasound image analysis technology combined with the developed auto tumor localization system can be evaluated. The results show that the simulated respiratory signals under different frequencies of 0.5, 0.333, 0.25, 0.2 and 0.167 Hz with phase lead compensators were improved and stabilized. The compensation rate increased to the range of 7.04$∼ $18.82%, and the final compensation rate is about 97%. Therefore the auto tumor localization system combined with the ultrasound image analysis techniques is feasible.In this study, the developed ultrasound image analysis techniques combined into the auto tumor localization system has the following four advantages: (1) It is a non-invasive way (ultrasonic images) to monitor the entire compensating process of the active respiration instead of using a C-arm (invasive) to observe the organs motion. (2) During radiation therapy, the whole treatment process can be continuous, which can save the overall treatment time. (3) It is an independent system, which can be mounted onto any treatment couch. (4) Users can operate this system easily without the need of prior complicated training process.

Precipitation Variability and Projection Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation: Go Local!

EPA Science Inventory

Presentations agenda includes: Regional and local climate change effects: The relevance; Variability and uncertainty in decision- making and adaptation approaches; Adaptation attributes for the U.S. Southwest: Water availability, storage capacity, and related; EPA research...

Deciphering human-climate interactions in an ombrotrophic peat record: REE, Nd and Pb isotope signatures of dust supplies over the last 2500 years (Misten bog, Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagel, N.; Allan, M.; Le Roux, G.; Mattielli, N.; Piotrowska, N.; Sikorski, J.

2014-06-01

A high-resolution peat record from Eastern Belgium reveals the chronology of dust deposition for the last 2500 years. REE and lithogenic elements in addition to Nd and Pb isotopes were measured in a 173 cm age-dated peat profile and provide a continuous chronology of dust source and intensity. Calculated dust flux show pronounced increases c. 300 BC, 600 AD, 1000 AD, 1200 AD and from 1700 AD, corresponding to local and regional human activities combined with climate change. The Industrial Revolution samples (1700-1950 AD) are characterised by a significant enrichment in Sc-normalised REE abundance (sum REE/Sc > 25) due to intensive coal combustion. For the pre-Industrial Revolution samples, the Sc-normalised REE abundance (10 < Sum REE/Sc < 25) and the εNd variability (-13 to -9) are interpreted by a mixing between dust particles from local soils and long-range transport of desert particles. Three periods characterised by dominant-distal sources (c. 320 AD, 1000 AD and 1700 AD) are consistent with local wetter-than-average intervals as indicated by a lower degree of peat humification. Local erosion prevails during the drier (higher humification) intervals (100 AD, 600 AD). On a global scale, more distal supplies are driven during colder periods, in particular during the Oort and Maunder minima, suggesting a potential link between dust deposition and global climate. Combining REE abundance, fractionation between Light REE and Heavy REE and Nd isotope data in ombrotrophic peat allows one to distinguish between dust flux changes related to human and climate forcings.

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

2018-05-01

Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

spa typing for epidemiological surveillance of Staphylococcus aureus.

PubMed

Hallin, Marie; Friedrich, Alexander W; Struelens, Marc J

2009-01-01

The spa typing method is based on sequencing of the polymorphic X region of the protein A gene (spa), present in all strains of Staphylococcus aureus. The X region is constituted of a variable number of 24-bp repeats flanked by well-conserved regions. This single-locus sequence-based typing method combines a number of technical advantages, such as rapidity, reproducibility, and portability. Moreover, due to its repeat structure, the spa locus simultaneously indexes micro- and macrovariations, enabling the use of spa typing in both local and global epidemiological studies. These studies are facilitated by the establishment of standardized spa type nomenclature and Internet shared databases.

Measuring correlations in non-separable vector beams using projective measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, Keerthan; Viswanathan, Nirmal K.

2017-09-01

Doubts regarding the completeness of quantum mechanics as raised by Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen(EPR) have predominantly been resolved by resorting to a measurement of correlations between entangled photons which clearly demonstrate violation of Bell's inequality. This article is an attempt to reconcile incompatibility of hidden variable theories with reality by demonstrating experimentally a violation of Bell's inequality in locally correlated systems whose two degrees of freedom, the spin and orbital angular momentum, are maximally correlated. To this end we propose and demonstrate a linear, achromatic modified Sagnac interferometer to project orbital angular momentum states which we combine with spin projections to measure correlations.

Local variability in long-term care services: local autonomy, exogenous influences and policy spillovers.

PubMed

Fernandez, José-Luis; Forder, Julien

2015-03-01

In many countries, public responsibility over the funding and provision of long-term care services is held at the local level. In such systems, long-term care provision is often characterised by significant local variability. Using a panel dataset of local authorities over the period 2002-2012, the paper investigates the underlying causes of variation in gross social care expenditure for older people in England. The analysis distinguishes between factors outside the direct control of policy makers, local preferences and local policy spillovers. The results indicate that local demand and supply factors, and to a much lesser extent local political preferences and spatial policy spillovers, explain a large majority of the observed variation in expenditure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prioritizing health system and disease burden factors: an evaluation of the net benefit of transferring health technology interventions to different districts in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Shamu, Shepherd; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Hongoro, Charles

2016-01-01

Health-care technologies (HCTs) play an important role in any country's health-care system. Zimbabwe's health-care system uses a lot of HCTs developed in other countries. However, a number of local factors have affected the absorption and use of these technologies. We therefore set out to test the hypothesis that the net benefit regression framework (NBRF) could be a helpful benefit testing model that enables assessment of intra-national variables in HCT transfer. We used an NBRF model to assess the benefits of transferring cost-effective technologies to different jurisdictions. We used the country's 57 administrative districts to proxy different jurisdictions. For the dependent variable, we combined the cost and effectiveness ratios with the districts' per capita health expenditure. The cost and effectiveness ratios were obtained from HIV/AIDS and malaria randomized controlled trials, which did either a prospective or retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. The independent variables were district demographic and socioeconomic determinants of health. The study showed that intra-national variation resulted in different net benefits of the same health technology intervention if implemented in different districts in Zimbabwe. The study showed that population data, health data, infrastructure, demographic and health-seeking behavior had significant effects on the net margin benefit for the different districts. The net benefits also differed in terms of magnitude as a result of the local factors. Net benefit testing using local data is a very useful tool for assessing the transferability and further adoption of HCTs developed elsewhere. However, adopting interventions with a positive net benefit should also not be an end in itself. Information on positive or negative net benefit could also be used to ascertain either the level of future savings that a technology can realize or the level of investment needed for the particular technology to become beneficial.

Optimization modeling of U.S. renewable electricity deployment using local input variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernstein, Adam

For the past five years, state Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) laws have been a primary driver of renewable electricity (RE) deployments in the United States. However, four key trends currently developing: (i) lower natural gas prices, (ii) slower growth in electricity demand, (iii) challenges of system balancing intermittent RE within the U.S. transmission regions, and (iv) fewer economical sites for RE development, may limit the efficacy of RPS laws over the remainder of the current RPS statutes' lifetime. An outsized proportion of U.S. RE build occurs in a small number of favorable locations, increasing the effects of these variables on marginal RE capacity additions. A state-by-state analysis is necessary to study the U.S. electric sector and to generate technology specific generation forecasts. We used LP optimization modeling similar to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Renewable Energy Development System (ReEDS) to forecast RE deployment across the 8 U.S. states with the largest electricity load, and found state-level RE projections to Year 2031 significantly lower than thoseimplied in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2013 Annual Energy Outlook forecast. Additionally, the majority of states do not achieve their RPS targets in our forecast. Combined with the tendency of prior research and RE forecasts to focus on larger national and global scale models, we posit that further bottom-up state and local analysis is needed for more accurate policy assessment, forecasting, and ongoing revision of variables as parameter values evolve through time. Current optimization software eliminates much of the need for algorithm coding and programming, allowing for rapid model construction and updating across many customized state and local RE parameters. Further, our results can be tested against the empirical outcomes that will be observed over the coming years, and the forecast deviation from the actuals can be attributed to discrete parameter variances.

Electrical Advantages of Dendritic Spines

PubMed Central

Gulledge, Allan T.; Carnevale, Nicholas T.; Stuart, Greg J.

2012-01-01

Many neurons receive excitatory glutamatergic input almost exclusively onto dendritic spines. In the absence of spines, the amplitudes and kinetics of excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSPs) at the site of synaptic input are highly variable and depend on dendritic location. We hypothesized that dendritic spines standardize the local geometry at the site of synaptic input, thereby reducing location-dependent variability of local EPSP properties. We tested this hypothesis using computational models of simplified and morphologically realistic spiny neurons that allow direct comparison of EPSPs generated on spine heads with EPSPs generated on dendritic shafts at the same dendritic locations. In all morphologies tested, spines greatly reduced location-dependent variability of local EPSP amplitude and kinetics, while having minimal impact on EPSPs measured at the soma. Spine-dependent standardization of local EPSP properties persisted across a range of physiologically relevant spine neck resistances, and in models with variable neck resistances. By reducing the variability of local EPSPs, spines standardized synaptic activation of NMDA receptors and voltage-gated calcium channels. Furthermore, spines enhanced activation of NMDA receptors and facilitated the generation of NMDA spikes and axonal action potentials in response to synaptic input. Finally, we show that dynamic regulation of spine neck geometry can preserve local EPSP properties following plasticity-driven changes in synaptic strength, but is inefficient in modifying the amplitude of EPSPs in other cellular compartments. These observations suggest that one function of dendritic spines is to standardize local EPSP properties throughout the dendritic tree, thereby allowing neurons to use similar voltage-sensitive postsynaptic mechanisms at all dendritic locations. PMID:22532875

Drought planning and water allocation: an assessment of local capacity in Minnesota.

PubMed

Pirie, Rebecca L; de Loë, Rob C; Kreutzwiser, Reid

2004-10-01

Water allocation systems are challenged by hydrologic droughts, which reduce available water supplies and can adversely affect human and environmental systems. To address this problem, drought management mechanisms have been instituted in jurisdictions around the world. Historically, these mechanisms have involved a crisis management or reactive approach. An important trend during the past decade in places such as the United States has been a shift to a more proactive approach, emphasizing drought preparedness and local involvement. Unfortunately, local capacity for drought planning is highly variable, with some local governments and organizations proving to be more capable than others of taking on new responsibilities. This paper reports on a study of drought planning and water allocation in the State of Minnesota. Factors facilitating and constraining local capacity for drought planning were identified using in-depth key informant interviews with state officials and members of two small Minnesota cities, combined with an analysis of pertinent documentation. A key factor contributing to the effectiveness of Minnesota's system is a water allocation system with explicit priorities during shortages, and provisions for restrictions. At the same time, the requirement that water suppliers create Public Water Supply Emergency Conservation Plans (PWSECP) clarifies the roles and responsibilities of key local actors. Unfortunately, the research revealed that mandated PWSECP are not always implemented, and that awareness of drought and drought planning measures in general may be poor at the local level. From the perspective of the two cities evaluated, factors that contributed to local capacity included sound financial and human resources, and (in some cases) effective vertical and horizontal linkages. This analysis of experiences in Minnesota highlights problems that can occur when senior governments establish policy frameworks that increase responsibilities at the local level without also addressing local capacity.

21 CFR 346.22 - Permitted combinations of anorectal active ingredients.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) of this section. (c) Any single local anesthetic identified in § 346.10 may be combined with any single vasoconstrictor identified in § 346.12. (d) Any single local anesthetic identified in § 346.10 may be combined with any single astringent identified in § 346.18. (e) Any single local anesthetic...

21 CFR 346.22 - Permitted combinations of anorectal active ingredients.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

...) of this section. (c) Any single local anesthetic identified in § 346.10 may be combined with any single vasoconstrictor identified in § 346.12. (d) Any single local anesthetic identified in § 346.10 may be combined with any single astringent identified in § 346.18. (e) Any single local anesthetic...

Monthly streamflow forecasting using continuous wavelet and multi-gene genetic programming combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadi, Sinan Jasim; Tombul, Mustafa

2018-06-01

Streamflow is an essential component of the hydrologic cycle in the regional and global scale and the main source of fresh water supply. It is highly associated with natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Therefore, accurate streamflow forecasting is essential. Forecasting streamflow in general and monthly streamflow in particular is a complex process that cannot be handled by data-driven models (DDMs) only and requires pre-processing. Wavelet transformation is a pre-processing technique; however, application of continuous wavelet transformation (CWT) produces many scales that cause deterioration in the performance of any DDM because of the high number of redundant variables. This study proposes multigene genetic programming (MGGP) as a selection tool. After the CWT analysis, it selects important scales to be imposed into the artificial neural network (ANN). A basin located in the southeast of Turkey is selected as case study to prove the forecasting ability of the proposed model. One month ahead downstream flow is used as output, and downstream flow, upstream, rainfall, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration with associated lags are used as inputs. Before modeling, wavelet coherence transformation (WCT) analysis was conducted to analyze the relationship between variables in the time-frequency domain. Several combinations were developed to investigate the effect of the variables on streamflow forecasting. The results indicated a high localized correlation between the streamflow and other variables, especially the upstream. In the models of the standalone layout where the data were entered to ANN and MGGP without CWT, the performance is found poor. In the best-scale layout, where the best scale of the CWT identified as the highest correlated scale is chosen and enters to ANN and MGGP, the performance increased slightly. Using the proposed model, the performance improved dramatically particularly in forecasting the peak values because of the inclusion of several scales in which seasonality and irregularity can be captured. Using hydrological and meteorological variables also improved the ability to forecast the streamflow.

Modeling Spatial and Temporal Variability in Ammonia Emissions from Agricultural Fertilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasubramanian, S.; Koloutsou-Vakakis, S.; Rood, M. J.

2013-12-01

Ammonia (NH3), is an important component of the reactive nitrogen cycle and a precursor to formation of atmospheric particulate matter (PM). Predicting regional PM concentrations and deposition of nitrogen species to ecosystems requires representative emission inventories. Emission inventories have traditionally been developed using top down approaches and more recently from data assimilation based on satellite and ground based ambient concentrations and wet deposition data. The National Emission Inventory (NEI) indicates agricultural fertilization as the predominant contributor (56%) to NH3 emissions in Midwest USA, in 2002. However, due to limited understanding of the complex interactions between fertilizer usage, farm practices, soil and meteorological conditions and absence of detailed statistical data, such emission estimates are currently based on generic emission factors, time-averaged temporal factors and coarse spatial resolution. Given the significance of this source, our study focuses on developing an improved NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization at finer spatial and temporal scales for air quality modeling studies. Firstly, a high-spatial resolution 4 km x 4 km NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization has been developed for Illinois by modifying spatial allocation of emissions based on combining crop-specific fertilization rates with cropland distribution in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions model. Net emission estimates of our method are within 2% of NEI, since both methods are constrained by fertilizer sales data. However, we identified localized crop-specific NH3 emission hotspots at sub-county resolutions absent in NEI. Secondly, we have adopted the use of the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) Biogeochemistry model to simulate the physical and chemical processes that control volatilization of nitrogen as NH3 to the atmosphere after fertilizer application and resolve the variability at the hourly scale. Representative temporal factors are being developed to capture crop-specific NH3 emission variability by combining knowledge of local crop management practices with high resolution cropland and soil maps. This improved spatially and temporally dependent NH3 emission inventory for agricultural fertilization is being prepared as a direct input to a state of the art air quality model to evaluate the effects of agricultural fertilization on regional air quality and atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen species.

Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

2011-01-01

We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

Topographic variations of water supply and plant hydraulics in a mountainous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, X.; Mackay, D. S.; Ewers, B. E.; Parsekian, A.; Sperry, J.; Beverly, D.; Speckman, H. N.; Ohara, N.; Fantello, N.; Kelleners, T.; Fullhart, A. T.

2017-12-01

How plants respond to variable local water supply in complex soil-topography systems is not clear although critical. This has been attributed to a lack of integrated models that can resolve relevant hydrological and physiological mechanisms and intensive field monitoring to inform/evaluate such a model. This research addresses these knowledge gaps by leveraging a newly developed distributed plant hydraulics model, ParFlow-TREES, and detailed geophysical and physiological measurements. Observations of sap flow, leaf water potentials, micrometeorology, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) are combined with the model to examine the key mechanisms affecting the spatial distribution of soil water and tree water stress. Modeling results showed higher soil water condition at bottom of the hillslope on average, corroborating the ERT-derived soil moisture observations. Hydraulic traits are critical to capture the sap flux dynamics of species with contrasting leaf water potential regulation strategies and heterogeneous soil drying at different hillslope positions. These results suggested the integrated effect of topography and plants on the evolvement of soil moisture distribution. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis demonstrated the importance of using distributed observations to validate/calibrate distributed models. Focusing on lumped variables or only one particular variable might give misleading conclusions. Co-located observations improve the characterization of plant traits and local living environment, providing key information needed as a first step in resolving the form and function of the critical zone from bedrock to atmosphere. We will discuss the broader implications and potential applications of this intensive data-model comparison at other sites and greater spatial extent.

Assessing floods and droughts in the Mékrou River basin (West Africa): a combined household survey and climatic trends analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markantonis, Vasileios; Farinosi, Fabio; Dondeynaz, Celine; Ameztoy, Iban; Pastori, Marco; Marletta, Luca; Ali, Abdou; Carmona Moreno, Cesar

2018-05-01

The assessment of natural hazards such as floods and droughts is a complex issue that demands integrated approaches and high-quality data. Especially in African developing countries, where information is limited, the assessment of floods and droughts, though an overarching issue that influences economic and social development, is even more challenging. This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing crucial aspects of floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin (a portion of the Niger River basin in West Africa), combining climatic trends analysis and the findings of a household survey. The multivariable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with an analysis of household survey data that reveals the behaviour and opinions of local residents regarding the observed climate variability and occurrence of flood and drought events, household mitigation measures, and the impacts of floods and droughts. Based on survey data analysis, the paper provides a per-household cost estimation of floods and droughts that occurred over a 2-year period (2014-2015). Furthermore, two econometric models are set up to identify the factors that influence the costs of floods and droughts to impacted households.

Advanced in-production hotspot prediction and monitoring with micro-topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanton, P.; Hasan, T.; Lakcher, A.; Le-Gratiet, B.; Prentice, C.; Simiz, J.-G.; La Greca, R.; Depre, L.; Hunsche, S.

2017-03-01

At 28nm technology node and below, hot spot prediction and process window control across production wafers have become increasingly critical to prevent hotspots from becoming yield-limiting defects. We previously established proof of concept for a systematic approach to identify the most critical pattern locations, i.e. hotspots, in a reticle layout by computational lithography and combining process window characteristics of these patterns with across-wafer process variation data to predict where hotspots may become yield impacting defects [1,2]. The current paper establishes the impact of micro-topography on a 28nm metal layer, and its correlation with hotspot best focus variations across a production chip layout. Detailed topography measurements are obtained from an offline tool, and pattern-dependent best focus (BF) shifts are determined from litho simulations that include mask-3D effects. We also establish hotspot metrology and defect verification by SEM image contour extraction and contour analysis. This enables detection of catastrophic defects as well as quantitative characterization of pattern variability, i.e. local and global CD uniformity, across a wafer to establish hotspot defect and variability maps. Finally, we combine defect prediction and verification capabilities for process monitoring by on-product, guided hotspot metrology, i.e. with sampling locations being determined from the defect prediction model and achieved prediction accuracy (capture rate) around 75%

West Florida shelf circulation and temperature budget for the 1999 spring transition

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Ruoying; Weisberg, Robert H.

2002-01-01

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a spring transition as the net surface heat flux changes from cooling to warming. Using in situ data and a numerical circulation model we investigate the circulation and temperature budget on the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) for the spring transition of 1999. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind and heat flux fields and by river inflows. Based on agreements between the modeled and observed fields we use the model to draw inferences on how the surface momentum and heat fluxes affect the seasonal and synoptic scale variability. We account for a strong southeastward current at mid-shelf by the baroclinic response to combined wind and buoyancy forcing, and we show how this local forcing leads to annually occurring cold and low salinity tongues. Through term-by-term analyses of the temperature budget we describe the WFS temperature evolution in spring. Heat flux largely controls the seasonal transition, whereas ocean circulation largely controls the synoptic scale variability. These two processes, however, are closely linked. Bottom topography and coastline geometry are important in generating regions of convergence and divergence. Rivers contribute to the local hydrography and are important ecologically. Along with upwelling, river inflows facilitate frontal aggregation of nutrients and the spring formation of a high concentration chlorophyll plume near the shelf break (the so-called ‘Green River’) coinciding with the cold, low salinity tongues. These features originate by local, shelf-wide forcing; the Loop Current is not an essential ingredient.

Simultaneous estimation of local-scale and flow path-scale dual-domain mass transfer parameters using geoelectrical monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Ong, John B.; Curtis, Gary P.; Lane, John W.

2013-01-01

Anomalous solute transport, modeled as rate-limited mass transfer, has an observable geoelectrical signature that can be exploited to infer the controlling parameters. Previous experiments indicate the combination of time-lapse geoelectrical and fluid conductivity measurements collected during ionic tracer experiments provides valuable insight into the exchange of solute between mobile and immobile porosity. Here, we use geoelectrical measurements to monitor tracer experiments at a former uranium mill tailings site in Naturita, Colorado. We use nonlinear regression to calibrate dual-domain mass transfer solute-transport models to field data. This method differs from previous approaches by calibrating the model simultaneously to observed fluid conductivity and geoelectrical tracer signals using two parameter scales: effective parameters for the flow path upgradient of the monitoring point and the parameters local to the monitoring point. We use regression statistics to rigorously evaluate the information content and sensitivity of fluid conductivity and geophysical data, demonstrating multiple scales of mass transfer parameters can simultaneously be estimated. Our results show, for the first time, field-scale spatial variability of mass transfer parameters (i.e., exchange-rate coefficient, porosity) between local and upgradient effective parameters; hence our approach provides insight into spatial variability and scaling behavior. Additional synthetic modeling is used to evaluate the scope of applicability of our approach, indicating greater range than earlier work using temporal moments and a Lagrangian-based Damköhler number. The introduced Eulerian-based Damköhler is useful for estimating tracer injection duration needed to evaluate mass transfer exchange rates that range over several orders of magnitude.

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Moges, Semu; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Prediction of seasonal precipitation can provide actionable information to guide management of various sectoral activities. For instance, it is often translated into hydrological forecasts for better water resources management. However, many studies assume homogeneity in precipitation across an entire study region, which may prove ineffective for operational and local-level decisions, particularly for locations with high spatial variability. This study proposes advancing local-level seasonal precipitation predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through objective cluster analysis, for western Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting seasonal precipitation at high resolution in this region, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to precipitation variability given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources infrastructure. The combination of objective cluster analysis, spatially high-resolution prediction of seasonal precipitation, and a modeling structure spanning statistical and dynamical approaches makes clear advances in prediction skill and resolution, as compared with previous studies. The statistical model improves versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for a number of specific clusters in northwestern Ethiopia, with clusters having regional average correlation and ranked probability skill score (RPSS) values of up to 0.5 and 33 %, respectively. The general skill (after bias correction) of the two best-performing dynamical models over the entire study region is superior to that of the statistical models, although the dynamical models issue predictions at a lower resolution and the raw predictions require bias correction to guarantee comparable skills.

Biologic behavior and prognostic factors for mast cell tumors of the canine muzzle: 24 cases (1990-2001).

PubMed

Gieger, Tracy L; Théon, Alain P; Werner, Jonathan A; McEntee, Margaret C; Rassnick, Kenneth M; DeCock, Hilde E V

2003-01-01

The medical records of 24 dogs with histologically confirmed mast cell tumors (MCT) of the muzzle were retrospectively evaluated to determine their biologic behavior and prognostic factors. Information on signalment, tumor grade and stage, treatment methods, and pattern of and time to failure and death was obtained from the medical record. Twenty-three dogs were treated with combinations of radiotherapy, surgery, and chemotherapy; 1 dog received no treatment. There were 2 Grade 1, 15 Grade 11, and 7 Grade III tumors. Tumors were stage 0 (n = 8), stage 1 (5), stage 2 (6), stage 3 (4), and stage 4 (1). Mean and median survival times of treated dogs were 36 and 30 months, respectively. Prognostic factors affecting survival time included tumor grade and presence of metastasis at diagnosis. Dogs with Grade I and II tumors survived longer than dogs with Grade III tumors. Variables, including sex, age, gross versus microscopic disease, and treatment type were not found to affect survival. Local control rate was 75% at 1 year and 50% at 3 years. Tumor grade was the only variable found to affect local control. Dogs with Grade I tumors had longer disease-free intervals than those with Grade II tumors, and dogs with Grade II tumors had longer disease-free intervals than dogs with Grade III tumors. Eight of 9 dogs dying of MCT had local or regional disease progression. Muzzle MCT a rebiologically aggressive tumors with higher regional metastatic rates than previously reported for MCT in other sites.

Are Regional Habitat Models Useful at a Local-Scale? A Case Study of Threatened and Common Insectivorous Bats in South-Eastern Australia

PubMed Central

McConville, Anna; Law, Bradley S.; Mahony, Michael J.

2013-01-01

Habitat modelling and predictive mapping are important tools for conservation planning, particularly for lesser known species such as many insectivorous bats. However, the scale at which modelling is undertaken can affect the predictive accuracy and restrict the use of the model at different scales. We assessed the validity of existing regional-scale habitat models at a local-scale and contrasted the habitat use of two morphologically similar species with differing conservation status (Mormopterus norfolkensis and Mormopterus species 2). We used negative binomial generalised linear models created from indices of activity and environmental variables collected from systematic acoustic surveys. We found that habitat type (based on vegetation community) best explained activity of both species, which were more active in floodplain areas, with most foraging activity recorded in the freshwater wetland habitat type. The threatened M. norfolkensis avoided urban areas, which contrasts with M. species 2 which occurred frequently in urban bushland. We found that the broad habitat types predicted from local-scale models were generally consistent with those from regional-scale models. However, threshold-dependent accuracy measures indicated a poor fit and we advise caution be applied when using the regional models at a fine scale, particularly when the consequences of false negatives or positives are severe. Additionally, our study illustrates that habitat type classifications can be important predictors and we suggest they are more practical for conservation than complex combinations of raw variables, as they are easily communicated to land managers. PMID:23977296

[Mix 10] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 4] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 5] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 13] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 3] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 14] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 7] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 16] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 6] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 12] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 1] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 2] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 8] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 11] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 15] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

[Mix 9] HMACP mixture design : combined gradation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-01

Getting Started: Begin with the Combined Gradations or Summary sheet. Here you will select dependent variables such as specification year, mix type, asphalt content, combined aggregate, and others. These variable will affect the calculation of other ...

Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

PubMed

Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

2015-06-01

Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation.

Periodontal regeneration around natural teeth.

PubMed

Garrett, S

1996-11-01

1. Evidence is conclusive (Table 2) that periodontal regeneration in humans is possible following the use of bone grafts, guided tissue regeneration procedures, both without and in combination with bone grafts, and root demineralization procedures. 2. Clinically guided tissue regeneration procedures have demonstrated significant positive clinical change beyond that achieved with debridement alone in treating mandibular and maxillary (buccal only) Class II furcations. Similar data exist for intraosseous defects. Evidence suggests that the use of bone grafts or GTR procedures produce equal clinical benefit in treating intraosseous defects. Further research is necessary to evaluate GTR procedures compared to, or combined with, bone grafts in treating intraosseous defects. 3. Although there are some data suggesting hopeful results in Class II furcations, the clinical advantage of procedures combining present regenerative techniques remains to be demonstrated. Additional randomized controlled trials with sufficient power are needed to demonstrate the potential usefulness of these techniques. 4. Outcomes following regenerative attempts remain somewhat variable with differences in results between studies and individual subjects. Some of this variability is likely patient related in terms of compliance with plaque control and maintenance procedures, as well as personal habits; e.g., smoking. Variations in the defects selected for study may also affect predictability of outcomes along with other factors. 5. There is evidence to suggest that present regenerative techniques lead to significant amounts of regeneration at localized sites on specific teeth. However, if complete regeneration is to become a reality, additional stimuli to enhance the regenerative process are likely needed. Perhaps this will be accomplished in the future, with combined procedures that include appropriate polypeptide growth factors or tissue factors to provide additional stimulus.

Ensemble averaging and stacking of ARIMA and GSTAR model for rainfall forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraeni, D.; Kurnia, I. F.; Hadi, A. F.

2018-04-01

Unpredictable rainfall changes can affect human activities, such as in agriculture, aviation, shipping which depend on weather forecasts. Therefore, we need forecasting tools with high accuracy in predicting the rainfall in the future. This research focus on local forcasting of the rainfall at Jember in 2005 until 2016, from 77 rainfall stations. The rainfall here was not only related to the occurrence of the previous of its stations, but also related to others, it’s called the spatial effect. The aim of this research is to apply the GSTAR model, to determine whether there are some correlations of spatial effect between one to another stations. The GSTAR model is an expansion of the space-time model that combines the time-related effects, the locations (stations) in a time series effects, and also the location it self. The GSTAR model will also be compared to the ARIMA model that completely ignores the independent variables. The forcested value of the ARIMA and of the GSTAR models then being combined using the ensemble forecasting technique. The averaging and stacking method of ensemble forecasting method here provide us the best model with higher acuracy model that has the smaller RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value. Finally, with the best model we can offer a better local rainfall forecasting in Jember for the future.

Local adaptation in migrated interior Douglas-fir seedlings is mediated by ectomycorrhizas and other soil factors.

PubMed

Pickles, Brian J; Twieg, Brendan D; O'Neill, Gregory A; Mohn, William W; Simard, Suzanne W

2015-08-01

Separating edaphic impacts on tree distributions from those of climate and geography is notoriously difficult. Aboveground and belowground factors play important roles, and determining their relative contribution to tree success will greatly assist in refining predictive models and forestry strategies in a changing climate. In a common glasshouse, seedlings of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) from multiple populations were grown in multiple forest soils. Fungicide was applied to half of the seedlings to separate soil fungal and nonfungal impacts on seedling performance. Soils of varying geographic and climatic distance from seed origin were compared, using a transfer function approach. Seedling height and biomass were optimized following seed transfer into drier soils, whereas survival was optimized when elevation transfer was minimised. Fungicide application reduced ectomycorrhizal root colonization by c. 50%, with treated seedlings exhibiting greater survival but reduced biomass. Local adaptation of Douglas-fir populations to soils was mediated by soil fungi to some extent in 56% of soil origin by response variable combinations. Mediation by edaphic factors in general occurred in 81% of combinations. Soil biota, hitherto unaccounted for in climate models, interacts with biogeography to influence plant ranges in a changing climate. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Factors influencing mobile source particulate matter emissions-to-exposure relationships in the Boston urban area.

PubMed

Greco, Susan L; Wilson, Andrew M; Hanna, Steven R; Levy, Jonathan I

2007-11-15

Benefit-cost and regulatory impact analyses often use atmospheric dispersion models with coarse resolution to estimate the benefits of proposed mobile source emission control regulations. This approach may bias health estimates or miss important intra-urban variability for primary air pollutants. In this study, we estimate primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) intake fractions (iF; the fraction of a pollutant emitted from a source that is inhaled by the population) for each of 23 398 road segments in the Boston Metro Core area to evaluate the potential for intra-urban variability in the emissions-to-exposure relationship. We estimate iFs using the CAL3QHCR line source model combined with residential populations within 5000 m of each road segment. The annual average values for the road segments range from 0.8 to 53 per million, with a mean of 12 per million. On average, 46% of the total exposure is realized within 200 m of the road segment, though this varies from 0 to 93% largely due to variable population patterns. Our findings indicate the likelihood of substantial intra-urban variability in mobile source primary PM2.5 iF that accounting for population movement with time, localized meteorological conditions, and street-canyon configurations would likely increase.

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures.

PubMed

Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J; Devlin, Michelle; Anthony, Kenneth R N

2018-05-01

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run-off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017-2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near-term, relative to current state, followed by climate-driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business-as-usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate-driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR-wide reef performance will decline 27%-74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clustering of local group distances: Publication bias or correlated measurements? II. M31 and beyond

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Grijs, Richard; Bono, Giuseppe

2014-07-01

The accuracy of extragalactic distance measurements ultimately depends on robust, high-precision determinations of the distances to the galaxies in the local volume. Following our detailed study addressing possible publication bias in the published distance determinations to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), here we extend our distance range of interest to include published distance moduli to M31 and M33, as well as to a number of their well-known dwarf galaxy companions. We aim at reaching consensus on the best, most homogeneous, and internally most consistent set of Local Group distance moduli to adopt for future, more general use based on themore » largest set of distance determinations to individual Local Group galaxies available to date. Based on a careful, statistically weighted combination of the main stellar population tracers (Cepheids, RR Lyrae variables, and the magnitude of the tip of the red-giant branch), we derive a recommended distance modulus to M31 of (m−M){sub 0}{sup M31}=24.46±0.10 mag—adopting as our calibration an LMC distance modulus of (m−M){sub 0}{sup LMC}=18.50 mag—and a fully internally consistent set of benchmark distances to key galaxies in the local volume, enabling us to establish a robust and unbiased, near-field extragalactic distance ladder.« less

Design, Optimization, and Evaluation of Integrally-Stiffened Al-2139 Panel with Curved Stiffeners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Havens, David; Shiyekar, Sandeep; Norris, Ashley; Bird, R. Keith; Kapania, Rakesh K.; Olliffe, Robert

2011-01-01

A curvilinear stiffened panel was designed, manufactured, and tested in the Combined Load Test Fixture at NASA Langley Research Center. The panel is representative of a large wing engine pylon rib and was optimized for minimum mass subjected to three combined load cases. The optimization included constraints on web buckling, material yielding, crippling or local stiffener failure, and damage tolerance using a new analysis tool named EBF3PanelOpt. Testing was performed for the critical combined compression-shear loading configuration. The panel was loaded beyond initial buckling, and strains and out-of-plane displacements were extracted from a total of 20 strain gages and 6 linear variable displacement transducers. The VIC-3D system was utilized to obtain full field displacements/strains in the stiffened side of the panel. The experimental data were compared with the strains and out-of-plane deflections from a high fidelity nonlinear finite element analysis. The experimental data were also compared with linear elastic finite element results of the panel/test-fixture assembly. Overall, the panel buckled very near to the predicted load in the web regions.

Localized scleroderma: clinical spectrum and therapeutic update*

PubMed Central

Careta, Mariana Figueiroa; Romiti, Ricardo

2015-01-01

Scleroderma is a rare connective tissue disease that is manifested by cutaneous sclerosis and variable systemic involvement. Two categories of scleroderma are known: systemic sclerosis, characterized by cutaneous sclerosis and visceral involvement, and localized scleroderma or morphea which classically presents benign and self-limited evolution and is confined to the skin and/or underlying tissues. Localized scleroderma is a rare disease of unknown etiology. Recent studies show that the localized form may affect internal organs and have variable morbidity. Treatment should be started very early, before complications occur due to the high morbidity of localized scleroderma. In this review, we report the most important aspects and particularities in the treatment of patients diagnosed with localized scleroderma. PMID:25672301

Localized scleroderma: clinical spectrum and therapeutic update.

PubMed

Careta, Mariana Figueiroa; Romiti, Ricardo

2015-01-01

Scleroderma is a rare connective tissue disease that is manifested by cutaneous sclerosis and variable systemic involvement. Two categories of scleroderma are known: systemic sclerosis, characterized by cutaneous sclerosis and visceral involvement, and localized scleroderma or morphea which classically presents benign and self-limited evolution and is confined to the skin and/or underlying tissues. Localized scleroderma is a rare disease of unknown etiology. Recent studies show that the localized form may affect internal organs and have variable morbidity. Treatment should be started very early, before complications occur due to the high morbidity of localized scleroderma. In this review, we report the most important aspects and particularities in the treatment of patients diagnosed with localized scleroderma.

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Hally B.; Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin-scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N-50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well-explained (R2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large-scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large-scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale.

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

PubMed Central

Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

Abstract The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin‐scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N–50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well‐explained (R 2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large‐scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large‐scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale. PMID:29938149

How wide in magnetic local time is the cusp? An event study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, N. C.; Weber, E. J.; Weimer, D. R.; Moen, J.; Onsager, T.; Heelis, R. A.; Egeland, A.

1997-03-01

A unique pass of the DMSP F11 satellite, longitudinally cutting through the cusp and mantle, combined with simultaneous optical measurements of the dayside cusp from Svalbard has been used to determine the width in local time of the cusp. We have shown from this event study that the cusp was at least 3.7 hours wide in magnetic local time. These measurements provide a lower limit for the cusp width. The observed cusp optical emissions are relatively constant, considering the processes which lead to the 630.0 nm emissions, and require precipitating electron flux to be added each minute during the DMSP pass throughout the local time extent observed by the imaging photometer and probably over the whole extent of the cusp defined by DMSP data. We conclude that the electron fluxes which produce the cusp aurora are from a process which must have been operable sometime during each minute but could have had both temporal and spatial variations. The measured width along with models of cusp precipitation provide the rationale to conclude that the region of flux tube opening in the dayside merging process involves the whole frontside magnetopause and can extend beyond the dawn-dusk terminator. The merging process for this event was found to be continuous, although spatially and temporally variable.

Theoretical Analysis of Local Search and Simple Evolutionary Algorithms for the Generalized Travelling Salesperson Problem.

PubMed

Pourhassan, Mojgan; Neumann, Frank

2018-06-22

The generalized travelling salesperson problem is an important NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem for which meta-heuristics, such as local search and evolutionary algorithms, have been used very successfully. Two hierarchical approaches with different neighbourhood structures, namely a Cluster-Based approach and a Node-Based approach, have been proposed by Hu and Raidl (2008) for solving this problem. In this paper, local search algorithms and simple evolutionary algorithms based on these approaches are investigated from a theoretical perspective. For local search algorithms, we point out the complementary abilities of the two approaches by presenting instances where they mutually outperform each other. Afterwards, we introduce an instance which is hard for both approaches when initialized on a particular point of the search space, but where a variable neighbourhood search combining them finds the optimal solution in polynomial time. Then we turn our attention to analysing the behaviour of simple evolutionary algorithms that use these approaches. We show that the Node-Based approach solves the hard instance of the Cluster-Based approach presented in Corus et al. (2016) in polynomial time. Furthermore, we prove an exponential lower bound on the optimization time of the Node-Based approach for a class of Euclidean instances.

MIP Models and Hybrid Algorithms for Simultaneous Job Splitting and Scheduling on Unrelated Parallel Machines

PubMed Central

Ozmutlu, H. Cenk

2014-01-01

We developed mixed integer programming (MIP) models and hybrid genetic-local search algorithms for the scheduling problem of unrelated parallel machines with job sequence and machine-dependent setup times and with job splitting property. The first contribution of this paper is to introduce novel algorithms which make splitting and scheduling simultaneously with variable number of subjobs. We proposed simple chromosome structure which is constituted by random key numbers in hybrid genetic-local search algorithm (GAspLA). Random key numbers are used frequently in genetic algorithms, but it creates additional difficulty when hybrid factors in local search are implemented. We developed algorithms that satisfy the adaptation of results of local search into the genetic algorithms with minimum relocation operation of genes' random key numbers. This is the second contribution of the paper. The third contribution of this paper is three developed new MIP models which are making splitting and scheduling simultaneously. The fourth contribution of this paper is implementation of the GAspLAMIP. This implementation let us verify the optimality of GAspLA for the studied combinations. The proposed methods are tested on a set of problems taken from the literature and the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. PMID:24977204

Assessing Local Knowledge Use in Agroforestry Management with Cognitive Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaac, Marney E.; Dawoe, Evans; Sieciechowicz, Krystyna

2009-06-01

Small-holder farmers often develop adaptable agroforestry management techniques to improve and diversify crop production. In the cocoa growing region of Ghana, local knowledge on such farm management holds a noteworthy role in the overall farm development. The documentation and analysis of such knowledge use in cocoa agroforests may afford an applicable framework to determine mechanisms driving farmer preference and indicators in farm management. This study employed 12 in-depth farmer interviews regarding variables in farm management as a unit of analysis and utilized cognitive mapping as a qualitative method of analysis. Our objectives were (1) to illustrate and describe agroforestry management variables and associated farm practices, (2) to determine the scope of decision making of individual farmers, and (3) to investigate the suitability of cognitive mapping as a tool for assessing local knowledge use. Results from the cognitive maps revealed an average of 16 ± 3 variables and 19 ± 3 links between management variables in the farmer cognitive maps. Farmer use of advantageous ecological processes was highly central to farm management (48% of all variables), particularly manipulation of organic matter, shade and food crop establishment, and maintenance of a tree stratum as the most common, highly linked variables. Over 85% of variables included bidirectional arrows, interpreted as farm management practices dominated by controllable factors, insofar as farmers indicated an ability to alter most farm characteristics. Local knowledge use on cocoa production revealed detailed indicators for site evaluation, thus affecting farm preparation and management. Our findings suggest that amid multisourced information under conditions of uncertainty, strategies for adaptable agroforestry management should integrate existing and localized management frameworks and that cognitive mapping provides a tool-based approach to advance such a management support system.

Assessing local knowledge use in agroforestry management with cognitive maps.

PubMed

Isaac, Marney E; Dawoe, Evans; Sieciechowicz, Krystyna

2009-06-01

Small-holder farmers often develop adaptable agroforestry management techniques to improve and diversify crop production. In the cocoa growing region of Ghana, local knowledge on such farm management holds a noteworthy role in the overall farm development. The documentation and analysis of such knowledge use in cocoa agroforests may afford an applicable framework to determine mechanisms driving farmer preference and indicators in farm management. This study employed 12 in-depth farmer interviews regarding variables in farm management as a unit of analysis and utilized cognitive mapping as a qualitative method of analysis. Our objectives were (1) to illustrate and describe agroforestry management variables and associated farm practices, (2) to determine the scope of decision making of individual farmers, and (3) to investigate the suitability of cognitive mapping as a tool for assessing local knowledge use. Results from the cognitive maps revealed an average of 16 +/- 3 variables and 19 +/- 3 links between management variables in the farmer cognitive maps. Farmer use of advantageous ecological processes was highly central to farm management (48% of all variables), particularly manipulation of organic matter, shade and food crop establishment, and maintenance of a tree stratum as the most common, highly linked variables. Over 85% of variables included bidirectional arrows, interpreted as farm management practices dominated by controllable factors, insofar as farmers indicated an ability to alter most farm characteristics. Local knowledge use on cocoa production revealed detailed indicators for site evaluation, thus affecting farm preparation and management. Our findings suggest that amid multisourced information under conditions of uncertainty, strategies for adaptable agroforestry management should integrate existing and localized management frameworks and that cognitive mapping provides a tool-based approach to advance such a management support system.

A multilevel perspective to explain recycling behaviour in communities.

PubMed

Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo; Cuadrado, Esther; Luque, Bárbara; Pereira, Cícero R

2015-08-15

Previous research on the motivation for environmentally responsible behaviour has focused mainly on individual variables, rather than organizational or collective variables. Therefore, the results of those studies are hardly applicable to environmental management. This study considers individual, collective, and organizational variables together that contribute to the management of environmental waste. The main aim is to identify, through the development of a multilevel model, those predictive variables of recycling behaviour that help organizations to increase the recycling rates in their communities. Individual (age, gender, educational level, self-efficacy with respect to residential recycling, individual recycling behaviour), organizational (satisfaction with the quality of the service provided by a recycling company), and collective (community recycling rates, number of inhabitants, community efficacy beliefs) motivational factors relevant to recycling behaviour were analysed. A sample of 1501 residents from 55 localities was surveyed. The results of multilevel analyses indicated that there was significant variability within and between localities. Interactions between variables at the level of the individual (e.g. satisfaction with service quality) and variables at the level of the collective (e.g. community efficacy) predicted recycling behaviour in localities with low and high community recycling rates and large and small populations. The interactions showed that the relationship between self-efficacy and recycling is stronger in localities with weak community efficacy beliefs than in communities with strong beliefs. The findings show that the relationship between satisfaction with service quality and recycling behaviour is stronger in localities with strong community efficacy beliefs than in communities with weaker beliefs and a smaller population. The results are discussed accordingly in relation to theory and possible contribution to waste management. Those findings may be incorporated in national and international environmental policies in order to promote environmentally responsible behaviour in citizenship. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of grain-scale microstructural variability in tantalum using crystal plasticity-finite element simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lim, Hojun; Dingreville, Rémi; Deibler, Lisa A.

In this research, a crystal plasticity-finite element (CP-FE) model is used to investigate the effects of microstructural variability at a notch tip in tantalum single crystals and polycrystals. It is shown that at the macroscopic scale, the mechanical response of single crystals is sensitive to the crystallographic orientation while the response of polycrystals shows relatively small susceptibility to it. However, at the microscopic scale, the local stress and strain fields in the vicinity of the crack tip are completely determined by the local crystallographic orientation at the crack tip for both single and polycrystalline specimens with similar mechanical field distributions.more » Variability in the local metrics used (maximum von Mises stress and equivalent plastic strain at 3% deformation) for 100 different realizations of polycrystals fluctuates by up to a factor of 2–7 depending on the local crystallographic texture. Comparison with experimental data shows that the CP model captures variability in stress–strain response of polycrystals that can be attributed to the grain-scale microstructural variability. In conclusion, this work provides a convenient approach to investigate fluctuations in the mechanical behavior of polycrystalline materials induced by grain morphology and crystallographic orientations.« less

Investigation of grain-scale microstructural variability in tantalum using crystal plasticity-finite element simulations

DOE PAGES

Lim, Hojun; Dingreville, Rémi; Deibler, Lisa A.; ...

2016-02-27

In this research, a crystal plasticity-finite element (CP-FE) model is used to investigate the effects of microstructural variability at a notch tip in tantalum single crystals and polycrystals. It is shown that at the macroscopic scale, the mechanical response of single crystals is sensitive to the crystallographic orientation while the response of polycrystals shows relatively small susceptibility to it. However, at the microscopic scale, the local stress and strain fields in the vicinity of the crack tip are completely determined by the local crystallographic orientation at the crack tip for both single and polycrystalline specimens with similar mechanical field distributions.more » Variability in the local metrics used (maximum von Mises stress and equivalent plastic strain at 3% deformation) for 100 different realizations of polycrystals fluctuates by up to a factor of 2–7 depending on the local crystallographic texture. Comparison with experimental data shows that the CP model captures variability in stress–strain response of polycrystals that can be attributed to the grain-scale microstructural variability. In conclusion, this work provides a convenient approach to investigate fluctuations in the mechanical behavior of polycrystalline materials induced by grain morphology and crystallographic orientations.« less

RNA 3D Structure Modeling by Combination of Template-Based Method ModeRNA, Template-Free Folding with SimRNA, and Refinement with QRNAS.

PubMed

Piatkowski, Pawel; Kasprzak, Joanna M; Kumar, Deepak; Magnus, Marcin; Chojnowski, Grzegorz; Bujnicki, Janusz M

2016-01-01

RNA encompasses an essential part of all known forms of life. The functions of many RNA molecules are dependent on their ability to form complex three-dimensional (3D) structures. However, experimental determination of RNA 3D structures is laborious and challenging, and therefore, the majority of known RNAs remain structurally uncharacterized. To address this problem, computational structure prediction methods were developed that either utilize information derived from known structures of other RNA molecules (by way of template-based modeling) or attempt to simulate the physical process of RNA structure formation (by way of template-free modeling). All computational methods suffer from various limitations that make theoretical models less reliable than high-resolution experimentally determined structures. This chapter provides a protocol for computational modeling of RNA 3D structure that overcomes major limitations by combining two complementary approaches: template-based modeling that is capable of predicting global architectures based on similarity to other molecules but often fails to predict local unique features, and template-free modeling that can predict the local folding, but is limited to modeling the structure of relatively small molecules. Here, we combine the use of a template-based method ModeRNA with a template-free method SimRNA. ModeRNA requires a sequence alignment of the target RNA sequence to be modeled with a template of the known structure; it generates a model that predicts the structure of a conserved core and provides a starting point for modeling of variable regions. SimRNA can be used to fold small RNAs (<80 nt) without any additional structural information, and to refold parts of models for larger RNAs that have a correctly modeled core. ModeRNA can be either downloaded, compiled and run locally or run through a web interface at http://genesilico.pl/modernaserver/ . SimRNA is currently available to download for local use as a precompiled software package at http://genesilico.pl/software/stand-alone/simrna and as a web server at http://genesilico.pl/SimRNAweb . For model optimization we use QRNAS, available at http://genesilico.pl/qrnas .

Local effects of redundant terrestrial and GPS-based tie vectors in ITRF-like combinations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbondanza, Claudio; Altamimi, Zuheir; Sarti, Pierguido; Negusini, Monia; Vittuari, Luca

2009-11-01

Tie vectors (TVs) between co-located space geodetic instruments are essential for combining terrestrial reference frames (TRFs) realised using different techniques. They provide relative positioning between instrumental reference points (RPs) which are part of a global geodetic network such as the international terrestrial reference frame (ITRF). This paper gathers the set of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI)-global positioning system (GPS) local ties performed at the observatory of Medicina (Northern Italy) during the years 2001-2006 and discusses some important aspects related to the usage of co-location ties in the combinations of TRFs. Two measurement approaches of local survey are considered here: a GPS-based approach and a classical approach based on terrestrial observations (i.e. angles, distances and height differences). The behaviour of terrestrial local ties, which routinely join combinations of space geodetic solutions, is compared to that of GPS-based local ties. In particular, we have performed and analysed different combinations of satellite laser ranging (SLR), VLBI and GPS long term solutions in order to (i) evaluate the local effects of the insertion of the series of TVs computed at Medicina, (ii) investigate the consistency of GPS-based TVs with respect to space geodetic solutions, (iii) discuss the effects of an imprecise alignment of TVs from a local to a global reference frame. Results of ITRF-like combinations show that terrestrial TVs originate the smallest residuals in all the three components. In most cases, GPS-based TVs fit space geodetic solutions very well, especially in the horizontal components (N, E). On the contrary, the estimation of the VLBI RP Up component through GPS technique appears to be awkward, since the corresponding post fit residuals are considerably larger. Besides, combination tests including multi-temporal TVs display local effects of residual redistribution, when compared to those solutions where Medicina TVs are added one at a time. Finally, the combination of TRFs turns out to be sensitive to the orientation of the local tie into the global frame.

A methodology to link national and local information for spatial targeting of ammonia mitigation efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, E. J.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Dore, A. J.; Sutton, M. A.; Dragosits, U.

2017-09-01

The effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are evident in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide, with eutrophication and acidification leading to significant changes in species composition. Substantial reductions in N deposition from nitrogen oxides emissions have been achieved in recent decades. By contrast, ammonia (NH3) emissions from agriculture have not decreased substantially and are typically highly spatially variable, making efficient mitigation challenging. One solution is to target NH3 mitigation measures spatially in source landscapes to maximize the benefits for nature conservation. The paper develops an approach to link national scale data and detailed local data to help identify suitable measures for spatial targeting of local sources near designated Special Areas of Conservation (SACs). The methodology combines high-resolution national data on emissions, deposition and source attribution with local data on agricultural management and site conditions. Application of the methodology for the full set of 240 SACs in England found that agriculture contributes ∼45 % of total N deposition. Activities associated with cattle farming represented 54 % of agricultural NH3 emissions within 2 km of the SACs, making them a major contributor to local N deposition, followed by mineral fertiliser application (21 %). Incorporation of local information on agricultural management practices at seven example SACs provided the means to correct outcomes compared with national-scale emission factors. The outcomes show how national scale datasets can provide information on N deposition threats at landscape to national scales, while local-scale information helps to understand the feasibility of mitigation measures, including the impact of detailed spatial targeting on N deposition rates to designated sites.

Diversity pattern in Sesamum mutants selected for a semi-arid cropping system.

PubMed

Murty, B R; Oropeza, F

1989-02-01

Due to the complex requirements of moisture stress, substantial genetic diversity with a wide array of character combinations and effective simultaneous selection for several variables is necessary for improving the productivity and adaptation of a component crop in order for it to fit into a cropping system under semi-arid tropical conditions. Sesamum indicum L. is grown in Venezuela after rice/sorghum/or maize under such conditions. A mutation breeding program was undertaken using six locally adapted varieties to develop genotypes suitable for the above system. The diversity pattern for nine variables was assessed by multivariate analysis in 301 M4 progenies. Analysis of the characteristic roots and principal components in three methods of selection, i.e., M2 bulks (A), individual plant selection throughout (B), and selection in M3 for single variable (C), revealed differences in the pattern of variation between varieties, selection methods, and varieties x methods interactions. Method B was superior to the others and gave 17 of the 21 best M5 progenies. 'Piritu' and 'CF' varieties yielded the most productive progenies in M5 and M6. Diversity was large and selection was effective for such developmental traits as earliness and synchrony, combined with multiple disease resistance, which could be related to their importance by multivariate analyses. Considerable differences in the variety of character combinations among the high yielding. M5 progenies of 'CF' and 'Piritu' suggested possible further yield improvement. The superior response of 'Piritu' and 'CF' over other varieties in yield and adaptation was due to major changes in plant type and character associations. Multilocation testing of M5 generations revealed that the mutant progenies had a 40%-100% yield superiority over the parents; this was combined with earliness, synchrony, and multiple disease resistance, and was confirmed in the M6 generation grown on a commercial scale. This study showed that multivariate analysis is an effective tool for assessing diversity patterns, choice of appropriate variety, and selection methodology in order to make rapid progress in meeting the complex requirements of semi-arid cropping systems.

A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

Placing Local Aggregations in a Larger-Scale Context: Hierarchical Modeling of Black-Footed Albatross Dispersion.

PubMed

Michael, P E; Jahncke, J; Hyrenbach, K D

2016-01-01

At-sea surveys facilitate the study of the distribution and abundance of marine birds along standardized transects, in relation to changes in the local environmental conditions and large-scale oceanographic forcing. We analyzed the form and the intensity of black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes: BFAL) spatial dispersion off central California, using five years (2004-2008) of vessel-based surveys of seven replicated survey lines. We related BFAL patchiness to local, regional and basin-wide oceanographic variability using two complementary approaches: a hypothesis-based model and an exploratory analysis. The former tested the strength and sign of hypothesized BFAL responses to environmental variability, within a hierarchical atmosphere-ocean context. The latter explored BFAL cross-correlations with atmospheric / oceanographic variables. While albatross dispersion was not significantly explained by the hierarchical model, the exploratory analysis revealed that aggregations were influenced by static (latitude, depth) and dynamic (wind speed, upwelling) environmental variables. Moreover, the largest BFAL patches occurred along the survey lines with the highest densities, and in association with shallow banks. In turn, the highest BFAL densities occurred during periods of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index values and low atmospheric pressure. The exploratory analyses suggest that BFAL dispersion is influenced by basin-wide, regional-scale and local environmental variability. Furthermore, the hypothesis-based model highlights that BFAL do not respond to oceanographic variability in a hierarchical fashion. Instead, their distributions shift more strongly in response to large-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing. Thus, interpreting local changes in BFAL abundance and dispersion requires considering diverse environmental forcing operating at multiple scales.

Stochastic effects in EUV lithography: random, local CD variability, and printing failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Bisschop, Peter

2017-10-01

Stochastic effects in lithography are usually quantified through local CD variability metrics, such as line-width roughness or local CD uniformity (LCDU), and these quantities have been measured and studied intensively, both in EUV and optical lithography. Next to the CD-variability, stochastic effects can also give rise to local, random printing failures, such as missing contacts or microbridges in spaces. When these occur, there often is no (reliable) CD to be measured locally, and then such failures cannot be quantified with the usual CD-measuring techniques. We have developed algorithms to detect such stochastic printing failures in regular line/space (L/S) or contact- or dot-arrays from SEM images, leading to a stochastic failure metric that we call NOK (not OK), which we consider a complementary metric to the CD-variability metrics. This paper will show how both types of metrics can be used to experimentally quantify dependencies of stochastic effects to, e.g., CD, pitch, resist, exposure dose, etc. As it is also important to be able to predict upfront (in the OPC verification stage of a production-mask tape-out) whether certain structures in the layout are likely to have a high sensitivity to stochastic effects, we look into the feasibility of constructing simple predictors, for both stochastic CD-variability and printing failure, that can be calibrated for the process and exposure conditions used and integrated into the standard OPC verification flow. Finally, we briefly discuss the options to reduce stochastic variability and failure, considering the entire patterning ecosystem.

High resolution digital soil mapping as a future instrument for developing sustainable landuse strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gries, Philipp; Funke, Lisa-Marie; Baumann, Frank; Schmidt, Karsten; Behrens, Thorsten; Scholten, Thomas

2016-04-01

Climate change, increase in population and intensification of land use pose a great challenge for sustainable handling of soils. Intelligent landuse systems are able to minimize and/or avoid soil erosion and loss of soil fertility. A successful application of such systems requires area-wide soil information with high resolution. Containing three consecutive steps, the project INE-2-H („innovative sustainable landuse") at the University of Tuebingen is about creating high-resolution soil information using Digital Soil Mapping (DSM) techniques to develop sustainable landuse strategies. Input data includes soil data from fieldwork (texture and carbon content), the official digital soil and geological map (1:50.000) as well as a wide selection of local, complex and combined terrain parameters. First, soil maps have been created using the DSM approach and Random Forest (RF). Due to high resolution (10x10 m pixels), those maps show a more detailed spatial variability of soil information compared to the official maps used. Root mean square errors (RMSE) of the modelled maps vary from 2.11 % to 6.87 % and the coefficients of determination (R²) go from 0.42 to 0.68. Second, soil erosion potentials have been estimated according to the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). Long-term average annual soil loss ranges from 0.56 to 24.23 [t/ha/a]. Third, combining high-resolution erosion potentials with expert-knowledge of local farmers will result in a landuse system adapted to local conditions. This system will include sustainable strategies reducing soil erosion and conserving soil fertility.

Time-Dependent Behavior of Microvascular Blood Flow and Oxygenation: A Predictor of Functional Outcomes.

PubMed

Kuliga, Katarzyna Z; Gush, Rodney; Clough, Geraldine F; Chipperfield, Andrew John

2018-05-01

This study investigates the time-dependent behaviour and algorithmic complexity of low-frequency periodic oscillations in blood flux (BF) and oxygenation signals from the microvasculature. Microvascular BF and oxygenation (OXY: oxyHb, deoxyHb, totalHb, and SO 2 %) was recorded from 15 healthy young adult males using combined laser Doppler fluximetry and white light spectroscopy with local skin temperature clamped to 33  °C and during local thermal hyperaemia (LTH) at 43 °C. Power spectral density of the BF and OXY signals was evaluated within the frequency range (0.0095-1.6 Hz). Signal complexity was determined using the Lempel-Ziv (LZ) algorithm. Fold increase in BF during LTH was 15.6 (10.3, 22.8) and in OxyHb 4.8 (3.5, 5.9) (median, range). All BF and OXY signals exhibited multiple oscillatory components with clear differences in signal power distribution across frequency bands at 33 and 43 °C. Significant reduction in the intrinsic variability and complexity of the microvascular signals during LTH was found, with mean LZ complexity of BF and OxyHb falling by 25% and 49%, respectively ( ). These results provide corroboration that in human skin microvascular blood flow and oxygenation are influenced by multiple time-varying oscillators that adapt to local influences and become more predictable during increased haemodynamic flow. Recent evidence strongly suggests that the inability of microvascular networks to adapt to an imposed stressor is symptomatic of disease risk which might be assessed via BF and OXY via the combination signal analysis techniques described here.

A shifted Jacobi collocation algorithm for wave type equations with non-local conservation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doha, Eid H.; Bhrawy, Ali H.; Abdelkawy, Mohammed A.

2014-09-01

In this paper, we propose an efficient spectral collocation algorithm to solve numerically wave type equations subject to initial, boundary and non-local conservation conditions. The shifted Jacobi pseudospectral approximation is investigated for the discretization of the spatial variable of such equations. It possesses spectral accuracy in the spatial variable. The shifted Jacobi-Gauss-Lobatto (SJ-GL) quadrature rule is established for treating the non-local conservation conditions, and then the problem with its initial and non-local boundary conditions are reduced to a system of second-order ordinary differential equations in temporal variable. This system is solved by two-stage forth-order A-stable implicit RK scheme. Five numerical examples with comparisons are given. The computational results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is more accurate than finite difference method, method of lines and spline collocation approach

X-ray Observations of the Bright Old Nova V603 Aquilae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukai, K.; Orio, M.

2004-01-01

We report on our Chandra and RXTE observations of the bright old nova, V603 Aql, performed in 2001 April, supplemented by our analysis of archival X-ray data on this object. We find that the RXTE data are contaminated by the Galactic Ridge X-ray emission. After accounting for this effect, we find a high level of aperiodic variability in the RXTE data, at a level consistent with the uncontaminated Chandra data. The Chandra HETG spectrum clearly originates in a multi-temperature plasma. We constrain the possible emission measure distribution of the plasma through a combination of global and local fits. The X-ray luminosity and the spectral shape of V603 Aql resemble those of SS Cyg in transition between quiescence and outburst. The fact that the X-ray flux variability is only weakly energy dependent can be interpreted by supposing that the variability is due to changes in the maximum temperature of the plasma. The plasma density is likely to be high, and the emission region is likely to be compact. Finally, the apparent overabundance of Ne is consistent with V603 Aql being a young system.

Compound maar crater and co-eruptive scoria cone in the Lunar Crater Volcanic Field (Nevada, USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Jamal; Valentine, Greg A.

2017-06-01

Bea's Crater (Lunar Crater Volcanic Field, Nevada, USA) consists of two coalesced maar craters with diameters of 440 m and 1050 m, combined with a co-eruptive scoria cone that straddles the northeast rim of the larger crater. The two craters and the cone form an alignment that parallels many local and regional structures such as normal faults, and is interpreted to represent the orientation of the feeder dyke near the surface. The maar formed among a dense cluster of scoria cones; the cone-cluster topography resulted in crater rim that has a variable elevation. These older cones are composed of variably welded agglomerate and scoria with differing competence that subsequently affected the shape of Bea's Crater. Tephra ring deposits associated with phreatomagmatic maar-forming eruptions are rich in basaltic lithics derived from < 250 m depth, with variable contents of deeper-seated ignimbrite lithic clasts, consistent with ejection from relatively shallow explosions although a diatreme might extend to deeper levels beneath the maar. Interbedding of deposits on the northeastern cone and in the tephra ring record variations in the magmatic volatile driven and phreatomagmatic eruption styles in both space and time along a feeder dike.

A tool for determining duration of mortality events in archaeological assemblages using extant ungulate microwear

PubMed Central

Rivals, Florent; Prignano, Luce; Semprebon, Gina M.; Lozano, Sergi

2015-01-01

The seasonality of human occupations in archaeological sites is highly significant for the study of hominin behavioural ecology, in particular the hunting strategies for their main prey-ungulates. We propose a new tool to quantify such seasonality from tooth microwear patterns in a dataset of ten large samples of extant ungulates resulting from well-known mass mortality events. The tool is based on the combination of two measures of variability of scratch density, namely standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The integration of these two measurements of variability permits the classification of each case into one of the following three categories: (1) short events, (2) long-continued event and (3) two separated short events. The tool is tested on a selection of eleven fossil samples from five Palaeolithic localities in Western Europe which show a consistent classification in the three categories. The tool proposed here opens new doors to investigate seasonal patterns of ungulate accumulations in archaeological sites using non-destructive sampling. PMID:26616864

Optimizing protection efforts for amphibian conservation in Mediterranean landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Muñoz, Enrique; Ceacero, Francisco; Carretero, Miguel A.; Pedrajas-Pulido, Luis; Parra, Gema; Guerrero, Francisco

2013-05-01

Amphibians epitomize the modern biodiversity crisis, and attract great attention from the scientific community since a complex puzzle of factors has influence on their disappearance. However, these factors are multiple and spatially variable, and declining in each locality is due to a particular combination of causes. This study shows a suitable statistical procedure to determine threats to amphibian species in medium size administrative areas. For our study case, ten biological and ecological variables feasible to affect the survival of 15 amphibian species were categorized and reduced through Principal Component Analysis. The principal components extracted were related to ecological plasticity, reproductive potential, and specificity of breeding habitats. Finally, the factor scores of species were joined in a presence-absence matrix that gives us information to identify where and why conservation management are requires. In summary, this methodology provides the necessary information to maximize benefits of conservation measures in small areas by identifying which ecological factors need management efforts and where should we focus them on.

Calcium, Synaptic Plasticity and Intrinsic Homeostasis in Purkinje Neuron Models

PubMed Central

Achard, Pablo; De Schutter, Erik

2008-01-01

We recently reproduced the complex electrical activity of a Purkinje cell (PC) with very different combinations of ionic channel maximum conductances, suggesting that a large parameter space is available to homeostatic mechanisms. It has been hypothesized that cytoplasmic calcium concentrations control the homeostatic activity sensors. This raises many questions for PCs since in these neurons calcium plays an important role in the induction of synaptic plasticity. To address this question, we generated 148 new PC models. In these models the somatic membrane voltages are stable, but the somatic calcium dynamics are very variable, in agreement with experimental results. Conversely, the calcium signal in spiny dendrites shows only small variability. We demonstrate that this localized control of calcium conductances preserves the induction of long-term depression for all models. We conclude that calcium is unlikely to be the sole activity-sensor in this cell but that there is a strong relationship between activity homeostasis and synaptic plasticity. PMID:19129937

To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

PubMed

Schaarup-Jensen, K; Rasmussen, M R; Thorndahl, S

2009-01-01

In urban drainage modelling long-term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties with regards to long-term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems. These uncertainties originate from large uncertainties regarding rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper investigates how the choice of rainfall time series influences the extreme events statistics of max water levels in manholes and CSO volumes. Traditionally, long-term rainfall series, from a local rain gauge, are unavailable. In the present case study, however, long and local rain series are available. 2 rainfall gauges have recorded events for approximately 9 years at 2 locations within the catchment. Beside these 2 gauges another 7 gauges are located at a distance of max 20 kilometers from the catchment. All gauges are included in the Danish national rain gauge system which was launched in 1976. The paper describes to what extent the extreme events statistics based on these 9 series diverge from each other and how this diversity can be handled, e.g. by introducing an "averaging procedure" based on the variability within the set of statistics. All simulations are performed by means of the MOUSE LTS model.

Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve (Biscay, Spain): Conservation against development?

PubMed

Castillo-Eguskitza, Nekane; Rescia, Alejandro J; Onaindia, Miren

2017-08-15

The protected area approach has extended from conserving biodiversity to improving human well-being. However, the relationship between conservation and socioeconomic and cultural development continues to be controversial. This paper combines land use variables with socioeconomic and cultural variables through multivariate ordination analysis and evaluates their evolution in two areas inside and outside a Biosphere Reserve since the approval of the Governance Plan for Use and Management in the Reserve. The results indicate a similar tendency in the two areas, from the abandonment of traditional rural activities and decline in pine plantations to naturalness, urban sprawl and the growth of the tertiary economic sector, welfare indicators and sustainability index. However, it can be broadly observed that the region included inside the protected area presents better conservation features (native forest) and rural systems (forestry and primary economic sector) than the region outside the protected area while maintaining similar socioeconomic and cultural conditions. We suggest that the designation of the Biosphere Reserve does not influence the local population negatively but does safeguard its conservation, which could have enhanced socioeconomic and cultural development. Thus, even though certain changes must be made to replace the conifer plantations and encourage agricultural activities, the designation of the protected area fulfills its sustainability goal and enhances the local population's quality of life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uranium delivery and uptake in a montane wetland, north-central Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schumann, R. Randall; Zielinski, Robert A.; Otton, James K.; Pantea, Michael P.; Orem, William H.

2017-01-01

Comprehensive sampling of peat, underlying lakebed sediments, and coexisting waters of a naturally uraniferous montane wetland are combined with hydrologic measurements to define the important controls on uranium (U) supply and uptake. The major source of U to the wetland is groundwater flowing through locally fractured and faulted granite gneiss of Proterozoic age. Dissolved U concentrations in four springs and one seep ranged from 20 to 83 ppb (μg/l). Maximum U concentrations are ∼300 ppm (mg/kg) in lakebed sediments and >3000 ppm in peat. Uranium in lakebed sediments is primarily stratabound in the more organic-rich layers, but samples of similar organic content display variable U concentrations. Post-depositional modifications include variable additions of U delivered by groundwater. Uranium distribution in peat is heterogeneous and primarily controlled by proximity to groundwater-fed springs and seeps that act as local point sources of U, and by proximity to groundwater directed along the peat/lakebeds contact. Uranium is initially sorbed on various organic components of peat as oxidized U(VI) present in groundwater. Selective extractions indicate that the majority of sorbed U remains as the oxidized species despite reducing conditions that should favor formation of U(IV). Possible explanations are kinetic hindrances related to strong complex formation between uranyl and humic substances, inhibition of anaerobic bacterial activity by low supply of dissolved iron and sulfate, and by cold temperatures.

Genotype heterogeneity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within geospatial hotspots suggests foci of imported infection in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Gurjav, Ulziijargal; Jelfs, Peter; Hill-Cawthorne, Grant A; Marais, Ben J; Sintchenko, Vitali

2016-06-01

In recent years the State of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, has maintained a low tuberculosis incidence rate with little evidence of local transmission. Nearly 90% of notified tuberculosis cases occurred in people born in tuberculosis-endemic countries. We analyzed geographic, epidemiological and genotypic data of all culture-confirmed tuberculosis cases to identify the bacterial and demographic determinants of tuberculosis hotspot areas in NSW. Standard 24-loci mycobacterium interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-24) typing was performed on all isolates recovered between 2009 and 2013. In total 1692/1841 (91.9%) cases with confirmed Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection had complete MIRU-24 and demographic data and were included in the study. Despite some year-to-year variability, spatio-temporal analysis identified four tuberculosis hotspots. The incidence rate and the relative risk of tuberculosis in these hotspots were 2- to 10-fold and 4- to 8-fold higher than the state average, respectively. MIRU-24 profiles of M. tuberculosis isolates associated with these hotspots revealed high levels of heterogeneity. This suggests that these spatio-temporal hotspots, within this low incidence setting, can represent areas of predominantly imported infection rather than clusters of cases due to local transmission. These findings provide important epidemiological insight and demonstrate the value of combining tuberculosis genotyping and spatiotemporal data to guide better-targeted public health interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms of double stratification and magnetic field in flow of third grade fluid over a slendering stretching surface with variable thermal conductivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, Tasawar; Qayyum, Sajid; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Ahmad, Bashir

2018-03-01

This article addresses the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stagnation point flow of third grade fluid towards a nonlinear stretching sheet. Energy expression is based through involvement of variable thermal conductivity. Heat and mass transfer aspects are described within the frame of double stratification effects. Boundary layer partial differential systems are deduced. Governing systems are then converted into ordinary differential systems by invoking appropriate variables. The transformed expressions are solved through homotopic technique. Impact of embedded variables on velocity, thermal and concentration fields are displayed and argued. Numerical computations are presented to obtain the results of skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt and Sherwood numbers. It is revealed that larger values of magnetic parameter reduces the velocity field while reverse situation is noticed due to wall thickness variable. Temperature field and local Nusselt number are quite reverse for heat generation/absorption parameter. Moreover qualitative behaviors of concentration field and local Sherwood number are similar for solutal stratification parameter.

Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development*

PubMed Central

Michalopoulos, Stelios; Papaioannou, Elias

2013-01-01

We investigate the role of deeply-rooted pre-colonial ethnic institutions in shaping comparative regional development within African countries. We combine information on the spatial distribution of ethnicities before colonization with regional variation in contemporary economic performance, as proxied by satellite images of light density at night. We document a strong association between pre-colonial ethnic political centralization and regional development. This pattern is not driven by differences in local geographic features or by other observable ethnic-specific cultural and economic variables. The strong positive association between pre-colonial political complexity and contemporary development obtains also within pairs of adjacent ethnic homelands with different legacies of pre-colonial political institutions. PMID:25089052

Multigrid techniques for the solution of the passive scalar advection-diffusion equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, R. E.; Schmidt, F. W.

1985-01-01

The solution of elliptic passive scalar advection-diffusion equations is required in the analysis of many turbulent flow and convective heat transfer problems. The accuracy of the solution may be affected by the presence of regions containing large gradients of the dependent variables. The multigrid concept of local grid refinement is a method for improving the accuracy of the calculations in these problems. In combination with the multilevel acceleration techniques, an accurate and efficient computational procedure is developed. In addition, a robust implementation of the QUICK finite-difference scheme is described. Calculations of a test problem are presented to quantitatively demonstrate the advantages of the multilevel-multigrid method.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Embedded I&C for Extreme Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kisner, Roger A.

2016-04-01

This project uses embedded instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies to demonstrate potential performance gains of nuclear power plant components in extreme environments. Extreme environments include high temperature, radiation, high pressure, high vibration, and high EMI conditions. For extreme environments, performance gains arise from moment-to-moment sensing of local variables and immediate application of local feedback control. Planning for embedding I&C during early system design phases contrasts with the traditional, serial design approach that incorporates minimal I&C after mechanical and electrical design is complete. The demonstration application involves the development and control of a novel, proof-of-concept motor/pump design. The motor and pumpmore » combination operate within the fluid environment, eliminating the need for rotating seals. Actively controlled magnetic bearings also replace failure-prone mechanical contact bearings that typically suspend rotating components. Such as design has the potential to significantly enhance the reliability and life of the pumping system and would not be possible without embedded I&C.« less

Double diffusive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mixed convective slip flow along a radiating moving vertical flat plate with convective boundary condition.

PubMed

Rashidi, Mohammad M; Kavyani, Neda; Abelman, Shirley; Uddin, Mohammed J; Freidoonimehr, Navid

2014-01-01

In this study combined heat and mass transfer by mixed convective flow along a moving vertical flat plate with hydrodynamic slip and thermal convective boundary condition is investigated. Using similarity variables, the governing nonlinear partial differential equations are converted into a system of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The transformed equations are then solved using a semi-numerical/analytical method called the differential transform method and results are compared with numerical results. Close agreement is found between the present method and the numerical method. Effects of the controlling parameters, including convective heat transfer, magnetic field, buoyancy ratio, hydrodynamic slip, mixed convective, Prandtl number and Schmidt number are investigated on the dimensionless velocity, temperature and concentration profiles. In addition effects of different parameters on the skin friction factor, [Formula: see text], local Nusselt number, [Formula: see text], and local Sherwood number [Formula: see text] are shown and explained through tables.

In search of superluminal quantum communications: recent experiments and possible improvements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocciaro, B.; Faetti, S.; Fronzoni, L.

2013-06-01

As shown in the famous EPR paper (Einstein, Podolsky e Rosen, 1935), Quantum Mechanics is non-local. The Bell theorem and the experiments by Aspect and many others, ruled out the possibility of explaining quantum correlations between entangled particles using local hidden variables models (except for implausible combinations of loopholes). Some authors (Bell, Eberhard, Bohm and Hiley) suggested that quantum correlations could be due to superluminal communications (tachyons) that propagate isotropically with velocity vt > c in a preferred reference frame. For finite values of vt, Quantum Mechanics and superluminal models lead to different predictions. Some years ago a Geneva group and our group did experiments on entangled photons to evidence possible discrepancies between experimental results and quantum predictions. Since no discrepancy was found, these experiments established only lower bounds for the possible tachyon velocities vt. Here we propose an improved experiment that should lead us to explore a much larger range of possible tachyon velocities Vt for any possible direction of velocity vec V of the tachyons preferred frame.

Formulation development of physiological environment responsive periodontal drug delivery system for local delviery of metronidazole benzoate.

PubMed

Dabhi, Mahesh R; Sheth, Navin R

2013-03-01

The objective of the present investigation was to develop and evaluate physiological environment responsive periodontal drug delivery system (PERPDDS) for local delivery of metronidazole benzoate. Poly-ϵ-caprolactone an in situ precipitating polymer was used in combination with, carbopol 934P, a pH simulative polymer to develop PERPDDS. The prepared PERPDDS was evaluated for various parameters such as in vitro gelling capacity, viscosity, rheology, compatibility study, and in vitro diffusion study. A 3(2) full factorial design was used to investigate the influence of formulation variables. Drug release data from all formulations were fitted to different kinetic models and the korsemeyer-peppas model was found the best fit model. The value of diffusional exponent (n) was in between 0.3283 and 0.3979 indicating purely fickian diffusion release mechanism. Increasing the concentration of each polymeric component increases viscosity, and time for 50% and 90% drug release was observed and graphically represented by the surface response and contour plots.

Imaging electric field dynamics with graphene optoelectronics

DOE PAGES

Horng, Jason; Balch, Halleh B.; McGuire, Allister F.; ...

2016-12-16

The use of electric fields for signalling and control in liquids is widespread, spanning bioelectric activity in cells to electrical manipulation of microstructures in lab-on-a-chip devices. However, an appropriate tool to resolve the spatio-temporal distribution of electric fields over a large dynamic range has yet to be developed. Here we present a label-free method to image local electric fields in real time and under ambient conditions. Our technique combines the unique gate-variable optical transitions of graphene with a critically coupled planar waveguide platform that enables highly sensitive detection of local electric fields with a voltage sensitivity of a few microvolts,more » a spatial resolution of tens of micrometres and a frequency response over tens of kilohertz. Our imaging platform enables parallel detection of electric fields over a large field of view and can be tailored to broad applications spanning lab-on-a-chip device engineering to analysis of bioelectric phenomena.« less

The use of copula functions for modeling the risk of investment in shares traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domino, Krzysztof; Błachowicz, Tomasz

2014-11-01

In our work copula functions and the Hurst exponent calculated using the local Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) were used to investigate the risk of investment made in shares traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The combination of copula functions and the Hurst exponent calculated using local DFA is a new approach. For copula function analysis bivariate variables composed of shares prices of the PEKAO bank (a big bank with high capitalization) and other banks (PKOBP, BZ WBK, MBANK and HANDLOWY in decreasing capitalization order) and companies from other branches (KGHM-mining industry, PKNORLEN-petrol industry as well as ASSECO-software industry) were used. Hurst exponents were calculated for daily shares prices and used to predict high drops of those prices. It appeared to be a valuable indicator in the copula selection procedure, since Hurst exponent’s low values were pointing on heavily tailed copulas e.g. the Clayton one.

Imaging electric field dynamics with graphene optoelectronics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horng, Jason; Balch, Halleh B.; McGuire, Allister F.

The use of electric fields for signalling and control in liquids is widespread, spanning bioelectric activity in cells to electrical manipulation of microstructures in lab-on-a-chip devices. However, an appropriate tool to resolve the spatio-temporal distribution of electric fields over a large dynamic range has yet to be developed. Here we present a label-free method to image local electric fields in real time and under ambient conditions. Our technique combines the unique gate-variable optical transitions of graphene with a critically coupled planar waveguide platform that enables highly sensitive detection of local electric fields with a voltage sensitivity of a few microvolts,more » a spatial resolution of tens of micrometres and a frequency response over tens of kilohertz. Our imaging platform enables parallel detection of electric fields over a large field of view and can be tailored to broad applications spanning lab-on-a-chip device engineering to analysis of bioelectric phenomena.« less

Effect of Surface Morphology and Magnetic Impurities on the Electronic Structure in Cobalt-Doped BaFe 2 As 2 Superconductors

DOE PAGES

Zou, Qiang; Wu, Zhiming; Fu, Mingming; ...

2017-02-03

Combined scanning tunneling microscopy, spectroscopy, and local barrier height (LBH) studies show that low-temperature-cleaved optimally doped Ba(Fe 1–xCo x) 2As 2 crystals with x = 0.06, with T c = 22 K, have complicated morphologies. Although the cleavage surface and hence the morphologies are variable, the superconducting gap maps show the same gap widths and nanometer size inhomogeneities irrelevant to the morphology. Based on the spectroscopy and LBH maps, the bright patches and dark stripes in the morphologies are identified as Ba- and As-dominated surface terminations, respectively. Magnetic impurities, possibly due to Co or Fe atoms, are believed to createmore » local in-gap state and, in addition, suppress the superconducting coherence peaks. Lastly, this study will clarify the confusion on the cleavage surface terminations of the Fe-based superconductors and its relation with the electronic structures.« less

Well logging interpretation of production profile in horizontal oil-water two phase flow pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Lu-Sheng; Jin, Ning-De; Gao, Zhong-Ke; Zheng, Xi-Ke

2012-03-01

Due to the complicated distribution of local velocity and local phase hold up along the radial direction of pipe in horizontal oil-water two phase flow, it is difficult to measure the total flow rate and phase volume fraction. In this study, we carried out dynamic experiment in horizontal oil-water two phases flow simulation well by using combination measurement system including turbine flowmeter with petal type concentrating diverter, conductance sensor and flowpassing capacitance sensor. According to the response resolution ability of the conductance and capacitance sensor in different range of total flow rate and water-cut, we use drift flux model and statistical model to predict the partial phase flow rate, respectively. The results indicate that the variable coefficient drift flux model can self-adaptively tone the model parameter according to the oil-water two phase flow characteristic, and the prediction result of partial phase flow rate of oil-water two phase flow is of high accuracy.

An Observationally-Centred Method to Quantify the Changing Shape of Local Temperature Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2014-12-01

For climate sensitive decisions and adaptation planning, guidance on how local climate is changing is needed at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impacts or policy endeavours. This requires the quantification of how the distributions of variables, such as daily temperature, are changing at specific quantiles. These temperature distributions are non-normal and vary both geographically and in time. We present a method[1,2] for analysing local climatic time series data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes. We have demonstrated this approach using the E-OBS gridded dataset[3] which consists of time series of local daily temperature across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. The change in temperature can be tracked at a temperature threshold, at a likelihood, or at a given return time, independently for each geographical location. Geographical correlations are thus an output of our method and reflect both climatic properties (local and synoptic), and spatial correlations inherent in the observation methodology. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. For instance, in a band from Northern France to Denmark the hottest days in the summer temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2°C over a 43 year period; over four times the global mean change over the same period. We discuss methods to quantify the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This approach also quantifies the level of detail at which one might wish to see agreement between climate models and observations if such models are to be used directly as tools to assess climate change impacts at local scales. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287. [2] D A Stainforth, S C Chapman, N W Watkins, 2013, Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [3] Haylock, M.R. et al., 2008, J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

A proposal for classification of entities combining vascular malformations and deregulated growth.

PubMed

Oduber, Charlène E U; van der Horst, Chantal M A M; Sillevis Smitt, J Henk; Smeulders, Mark J C; Mendiratta, Vibhu; Harper, John I; van Steensel, Maurice A M; Hennekam, Raoul C M

2011-01-01

Agreement on terminology and nomenclature is fundamental and essential for effective exchange of information between clinicians and researchers. An adequate terminology to describe all patients showing vascular malformations combined with deregulated growth is at present not available. To propose a classification of patients with vascular malformations, not restricted to the face, and growth disturbances based on simple, clinically visible characteristics, on which clinicians and researchers can comment and which should eventually lead to an internationally accepted classification. Rooted in our joint experience we established a classification of vascular malformation not limited to the face, with growth disturbances. It is based on the nature and localization of the vascular malformations; the nature, localization and timing of growth disturbances; the nature of co-localization of the vascular malformations and growth disturbances; the presence or absence of other features. Subsequently a mixed (experienced and non-experienced) group of observers evaluated 146 patients (106 from the Netherlands; 40 from the UK) with vascular malformations and disturbed growth, using the classification. Inter-observer variability was assessed by estimating the Intra-Class Correlation (ICC) coefficient and its 95% confidence interval. We defined 6 subgroups within the group of entities with vascular malformation-deregulated growth. Scoring the patients using the proposed classification yielded a high inter-observer reproducibility (ICC varying between 0.747 and 0.895 for all levels of flow). The presently proposed classification was found to be reliable and easy to use for patients with vascular malformations with growth disturbances. We invite both clinicians and researchers to comment on the classification, in order to improve it further. This way we may obtain our final aim of an internationally accepted classification of patients, which should facilitate both clinical treatment and care of, as well as research into the molecular background of entities combining vascular malformation and deregulated growth. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

An investigation of ionospheric upper transition height variations at low and equatorial latitudes deduced from combined COSMIC and C/NOFS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Changjun; Zhao, Biqiang; Zhu, Jie; Yue, Xinan; Wan, Weixing

2017-10-01

In this study we propose the combination of topside in-situ ion density data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) along with the electron density profile measurement from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate (COSMIC) satellites Radio Occultation (RO) for studying the spatial and temporal variations of the ionospheric upper transition height (hT) and the oxygen ion (O+) density scale height. The latitudinal, local time and seasonal distributions of upper transition height show more consistency between hT re-calculated by the profile of the O+ using an α-Chapman function with linearly variable scale height and that determined from direct in-situ ion composition measurements, than with constant scale height and only the COSMIC data. The discrepancy in the values of hT between the C/NOFS measurement and that derived by the combination of COSMIC and C/NOFS satellites observations with variable scale height turns larger as the solar activity decreases, which suggests that the photochemistry and the electrodynamics of the equatorial ionosphere during the extreme solar minimum period produce abnormal structures in the vertical plasma distribution. The diurnal variation of scale heights (Hm) exhibits a minimum after sunrise and a maximum around noon near the geomagnetic equator. Further, the values of Hm exhibit a maximum in the summer hemisphere during daytime, whereas in the winter hemisphere the maximum is during night. Those features of Hm consistently indicate the prominent role of the vertical electromagnetic (E × B) drift in the equatorial ionosphere.

An investigation of ionospheric upper transition height variations at low and equatorial latitudes deduced from combined COSMIC and C/NOFS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Biqiang

2017-04-01

In this study we propose the combination of topside in-situ ion density data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) along with the electron density profile measurement from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate (COSMIC) satellites Radio Occultation (RO) for studying the spatial and temporal variations of the ionospheric upper transition height (hT) and the oxygen ion (O+) density scale height. The latitudinal, local time and seasonal distributions of upper transition height show more consistency between hT re-calculated by the profile of the O+ using an a-Chapman function with linearly variable scale height and that determined from direct in-situ ion composition measurements, than with constant scale height and only the COSMIC data. The discrepancy in the values of hT between the C/NOFS measurement and that derived by the combination of COSMIC and C/NOFS satellites observations with variable scale height turns larger as the solar activity decreases, which suggests that the photochemistry and the electrodynamics of the equatorial ionosphere during the extreme solar minimum period produce abnormal structures in the vertical plasma distribution. The diurnal variation of scale heights (Hm) exhibits a minimum after sunrise and a maximum around noon near the geomagnetic equator. Further, the values of Hm exhibit a maximum in the summer hemisphere during daytime, whereas in the winter hemisphere the maximum is during night. Those features of Hm consistently indicate the prominent role of the vertical electromagnetic (E×B) drift in the equatorial ionosphere.

Integrated Decision Strategies for Skin Sensitization Hazard

PubMed Central

Strickland, Judy; Zang, Qingda; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M.; Choksi, Neepa; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Lowit, Anna; Allen, David; Casey, Warren

2016-01-01

One of the top priorities of ICCVAM is the identification and evaluation of non-animal alternatives for skin sensitization testing. Although skin sensitization is a complex process, the key biological events of the process have been well characterized in an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) proposed by OECD. Accordingly, ICCVAM is working to develop integrated decision strategies based on the AOP using in vitro, in chemico, and in silico information. Data were compiled for 120 substances tested in the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA), direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), human cell line activation test (h-CLAT), and KeratinoSens assay. Data for six physicochemical properties that may affect skin penetration were also collected, and skin sensitization read-across predictions were performed using OECD QSAR Toolbox. All data were combined into a variety of potential integrated decision strategies to predict LLNA outcomes using a training set of 94 substances and an external test set of 26 substances. Fifty-four models were built using multiple combinations of machine learning approaches and predictor variables. The seven models with the highest accuracy (89–96% for the test set and 96–99% for the training set) for predicting LLNA outcomes used a support vector machine (SVM) approach with different combinations of predictor variables. The performance statistics of the SVM models were higher than any of the non-animal tests alone and higher than simple test battery approaches using these methods. These data suggest that computational approaches are promising tools to effectively integrate data sources to identify potential skin sensitizers without animal testing. PMID:26851134

Estimation of the stand ages of tropical secondary forests after shifting cultivation based on the combination of WorldView-2 and time-series Landsat images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiki, Shogoro; Okada, Kei-ichi; Nishio, Shogo; Kitayama, Kanehiro

2016-09-01

We developed a new method to estimate stand ages of secondary vegetation in the Bornean montane zone, where local people conduct traditional shifting cultivation and protected areas are surrounded by patches of recovering secondary vegetation of various ages. Identifying stand ages at the landscape level is critical to improve conservation policies. We combined a high-resolution satellite image (WorldView-2) with time-series Landsat images. We extracted stand ages (the time elapsed since the most recent slash and burn) from a change-detection analysis with Landsat time-series images and superimposed the derived stand ages on the segments classified by object-based image analysis using WorldView-2. We regarded stand ages as a response variable, and object-based metrics as independent variables, to develop regression models that explain stand ages. Subsequently, we classified the vegetation of the target area into six age units and one rubber plantation unit (1-3 yr, 3-5 yr, 5-7 yr, 7-30 yr, 30-50 yr, >50 yr and 'rubber plantation') using regression models and linear discriminant analyses. Validation demonstrated an accuracy of 84.3%. Our approach is particularly effective in classifying highly dynamic pioneer vegetation younger than 7 years into 2-yr intervals, suggesting that rapid changes in vegetation canopies can be detected with high accuracy. The combination of a spectral time-series analysis and object-based metrics based on high-resolution imagery enabled the classification of dynamic vegetation under intensive shifting cultivation and yielded an informative land cover map based on stand ages.

Variation in coastal Antarctic microbial community composition at sub-mesoscale: spatial distance or environmental filtering?

PubMed

Moreno-Pino, Mario; De la Iglesia, Rodrigo; Valdivia, Nelson; Henríquez-Castilo, Carlos; Galán, Alexander; Díez, Beatriz; Trefault, Nicole

2016-07-01

Spatial environmental heterogeneity influences diversity of organisms at different scales. Environmental filtering suggests that local environmental conditions provide habitat-specific scenarios for niche requirements, ultimately determining the composition of local communities. In this work, we analyze the spatial variation of microbial communities across environmental gradients of sea surface temperature, salinity and photosynthetically active radiation and spatial distance in Fildes Bay, King George Island, Antarctica. We hypothesize that environmental filters are the main control of the spatial variation of these communities. Thus, strong relationships between community composition and environmental variation and weak relationships between community composition and spatial distance are expected. Combining physical characterization of the water column, cell counts by flow cytometry, small ribosomal subunit genes fingerprinting and next generation sequencing, we contrast the abundance and composition of photosynthetic eukaryotes and heterotrophic bacterial local communities at a submesoscale. Our results indicate that the strength of the environmental controls differed markedly between eukaryotes and bacterial communities. Whereas eukaryotic photosynthetic assemblages responded weakly to environmental variability, bacteria respond promptly to fine-scale environmental changes in this polar marine system. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A global map of mangrove forest soil carbon at 30 m spatial resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderman, Jonathan; Hengl, Tomislav; Fiske, Greg; Solvik, Kylen; Adame, Maria Fernanda; Benson, Lisa; Bukoski, Jacob J.; Carnell, Paul; Cifuentes-Jara, Miguel; Donato, Daniel; Duncan, Clare; Eid, Ebrahem M.; Ermgassen, Philine zu; Ewers Lewis, Carolyn J.; Macreadie, Peter I.; Glass, Leah; Gress, Selena; Jardine, Sunny L.; Jones, Trevor G.; Ndemem Nsombo, Eugéne; Mizanur Rahman, Md; Sanders, Christian J.; Spalding, Mark; Landis, Emily

2018-05-01

With the growing recognition that effective action on climate change will require a combination of emissions reductions and carbon sequestration, protecting, enhancing and restoring natural carbon sinks have become political priorities. Mangrove forests are considered some of the most carbon-dense ecosystems in the world with most of the carbon stored in the soil. In order for mangrove forests to be included in climate mitigation efforts, knowledge of the spatial distribution of mangrove soil carbon stocks are critical. Current global estimates do not capture enough of the finer scale variability that would be required to inform local decisions on siting protection and restoration projects. To close this knowledge gap, we have compiled a large georeferenced database of mangrove soil carbon measurements and developed a novel machine-learning based statistical model of the distribution of carbon density using spatially comprehensive data at a 30 m resolution. This model, which included a prior estimate of soil carbon from the global SoilGrids 250 m model, was able to capture 63% of the vertical and horizontal variability in soil organic carbon density (RMSE of 10.9 kg m‑3). Of the local variables, total suspended sediment load and Landsat imagery were the most important variable explaining soil carbon density. Projecting this model across the global mangrove forest distribution for the year 2000 yielded an estimate of 6.4 Pg C for the top meter of soil with an 86–729 Mg C ha‑1 range across all pixels. By utilizing remotely-sensed mangrove forest cover change data, loss of soil carbon due to mangrove habitat loss between 2000 and 2015 was 30–122 Tg C with >75% of this loss attributable to Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar. The resulting map products from this work are intended to serve nations seeking to include mangrove habitats in payment-for- ecosystem services projects and in designing effective mangrove conservation strategies.

Impact of Québec's healthcare reforms on the organization of primary healthcare (PHC): a 2003-2010 follow-up.

PubMed

Pineault, Raynald; Borgès Da Silva, Roxane; Prud'homme, Alexandre; Fournier, Michel; Couture, Audrey; Provost, Sylvie; Levesque, Jean-Frédéric

2014-05-21

Healthcare reforms initiated in the early 2000s in Québec involved the implementation of new modes of primary healthcare (PHC) delivery and the creation of Health and Social Services Centers (HSSCs) to support it. The objective of this article is to assess and explain the degree of PHC organizational change achieved following these reforms. We conducted two surveys of PHC organizations, in 2005 and 2010, in two regions of the province of Québec, Canada. From the responses to these surveys, we derived a measure of organizational change based on an index of conformity to an ideal type (ICIT). One set of explanatory variables was contextual, related to coercive, normative and mimetic influences; the other consisted of organizational variables that measured receptivity towards new PHC models. Multilevel analyses were performed to examine the relationships between ICIT change in the post-reform period and the explanatory variables. Positive results were attained, as expressed by increase in the ICIT score in the post-reform period, mainly due to implementation of new types of PHC organizations (Family Medicine Groups and Network Clinics). Organizational receptivity was the main explanatory variable mediating the effect of coercive and mimetic influences. Normative influence was not a significant factor in explaining changes. Changes were modest at the system level but important with regard to new forms of PHC organizations. The top-down decreed reform was a determining factor in initiating change whereas local coercive and normative influences did not play a major role. The exemplar role played by certain PHC organizations through mimetic influence was more important. Receptivity of individual organizations was both a necessary condition and a mediating factor in influencing change. This supports the view that a combination of top-down and bottom-up strategy is best suited for achieving substantial changes in PHC local organization.

Impact of Québec’s healthcare reforms on the organization of primary healthcare (PHC): a 2003-2010 follow-up

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Healthcare reforms initiated in the early 2000s in Québec involved the implementation of new modes of primary healthcare (PHC) delivery and the creation of Health and Social Services Centers (HSSCs) to support it. The objective of this article is to assess and explain the degree of PHC organizational change achieved following these reforms. Methods We conducted two surveys of PHC organizations, in 2005 and 2010, in two regions of the province of Québec, Canada. From the responses to these surveys, we derived a measure of organizational change based on an index of conformity to an ideal type (ICIT). One set of explanatory variables was contextual, related to coercive, normative and mimetic influences; the other consisted of organizational variables that measured receptivity towards new PHC models. Multilevel analyses were performed to examine the relationships between ICIT change in the post-reform period and the explanatory variables. Results Positive results were attained, as expressed by increase in the ICIT score in the post-reform period, mainly due to implementation of new types of PHC organizations (Family Medicine Groups and Network Clinics). Organizational receptivity was the main explanatory variable mediating the effect of coercive and mimetic influences. Normative influence was not a significant factor in explaining changes. Conclusion Changes were modest at the system level but important with regard to new forms of PHC organizations. The top-down decreed reform was a determining factor in initiating change whereas local coercive and normative influences did not play a major role. The exemplar role played by certain PHC organizations through mimetic influence was more important. Receptivity of individual organizations was both a necessary condition and a mediating factor in influencing change. This supports the view that a combination of top-down and bottom-up strategy is best suited for achieving substantial changes in PHC local organization. PMID:24886490

Variable Selection in the Presence of Missing Data: Imputation-based Methods.

PubMed

Zhao, Yize; Long, Qi

2017-01-01

Variable selection plays an essential role in regression analysis as it identifies important variables that associated with outcomes and is known to improve predictive accuracy of resulting models. Variable selection methods have been widely investigated for fully observed data. However, in the presence of missing data, methods for variable selection need to be carefully designed to account for missing data mechanisms and statistical techniques used for handling missing data. Since imputation is arguably the most popular method for handling missing data due to its ease of use, statistical methods for variable selection that are combined with imputation are of particular interest. These methods, valid used under the assumptions of missing at random (MAR) and missing completely at random (MCAR), largely fall into three general strategies. The first strategy applies existing variable selection methods to each imputed dataset and then combine variable selection results across all imputed datasets. The second strategy applies existing variable selection methods to stacked imputed datasets. The third variable selection strategy combines resampling techniques such as bootstrap with imputation. Despite recent advances, this area remains under-developed and offers fertile ground for further research.

Forecasting Total Water Storage Changes in the Amazon basin using Atlantic and Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Linage, C.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2013-12-01

Floods and droughts frequently affect the Amazon River basin, impacting the transportation, river navigation, agriculture, economy and the carbon balance and biodiversity of several South American countries. The present study aims to find the main variables controlling the natural interannual variability of terrestrial water storage in the Amazon region and to propose a modeling framework for flood and drought forecasting. We propose three simple empirical models using a linear combination of lagged spatial averages of central Pacific (Niño 4 index) and tropical North Atlantic (TNAI index) sea surface temperatures (SST) to predict a decade-long record of 3°, monthly terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) observed by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. In addition to a SST forcing term, the models included a relaxation term to simulate the memory of water storage anomalies in response to external variability in forcing. Model parameters were spatially-variable and individually optimized for each 3° grid cell. We also investigated the evolution of the predictive capability of our models with increasing minimum lead times for TWSA forecasts. TNAI was the primary external forcing for the central and western regions of the southern Amazon (35% of variance explained with a 3-month forecast), whereas Niño 4 was dominant in the northeastern part of the basin (61% of variance explained with a 3-month forecast). Forcing the model with a combination of the two indices improved the fit significantly (p<0.05) for at least 64% of the grid cells, compared to models forced solely with Niño 4 or TNAI. The combined model was able to explain 43% of the variance in the Amazon basin as a whole with a 3-month lead time. While 66% of the observed variance was explained in the northeastern Amazon, only 39% of the variance was captured by the combined model in the central and western regions, suggesting that other, more local, forcing sources were important in these regions. The predictive capability of the combined model was monotonically degraded with increasing lead times. Degradation was smaller in the northeastern Amazon (where 49% of the variance was explained using a 8-month lead time versus 69% for a 1 month lead time) compared to the western and central regions of southern Amazon (where 22% of the variance was explained at 8 months versus 43% at 1 month). Our model may provide early warning information about flooding in the northeastern region of the Amazon basin, where floodplain areas are extensive and the sensitivity of floods to external SST forcing was shown to be high. This work also strengthens our understanding of the mechanisms regulating interannual variability in Amazon fires, as TWSA deficits may subsequently lead to atmospheric water vapor deficits and reduced cloudiness via water-limited evapotranspiration. Finally, this work helps to bridge the gap between the current GRACE mission and the follow-on gravity mission.

Using genetic algorithms to achieve an automatic and global optimization of analogue methods for statistical downscaling of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Pascal; Weingartner, Rolf; Obled, Charles; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2017-04-01

Analogue methods (AMs) rely on the hypothesis that similar situations, in terms of atmospheric circulation, are likely to result in similar local or regional weather conditions. These methods consist of sampling a certain number of past situations, based on different synoptic-scale meteorological variables (predictors), in order to construct a probabilistic prediction for a local weather variable of interest (predictand). They are often used for daily precipitation prediction, either in the context of real-time forecasting, reconstruction of past weather conditions, or future climate impact studies. The relationship between predictors and predictands is defined by several parameters (predictor variable, spatial and temporal windows used for the comparison, analogy criteria, and number of analogues), which are often calibrated by means of a semi-automatic sequential procedure that has strong limitations. AMs may include several subsampling levels (e.g. first sorting a set of analogs in terms of circulation, then restricting to those with similar moisture status). The parameter space of the AMs can be very complex, with substantial co-dependencies between the parameters. Thus, global optimization techniques are likely to be necessary for calibrating most AM variants, as they can optimize all parameters of all analogy levels simultaneously. Genetic algorithms (GAs) were found to be successful in finding optimal values of AM parameters. They allow taking into account parameters inter-dependencies, and selecting objectively some parameters that were manually selected beforehand (such as the pressure levels and the temporal windows of the predictor variables), and thus obviate the need of assessing a high number of combinations. The performance scores of the optimized methods increased compared to reference methods, and this even to a greater extent for days with high precipitation totals. The resulting parameters were found to be relevant and spatially coherent. Moreover, they were obtained automatically and objectively, which reduces efforts invested in exploration attempts when adapting the method to a new region or for a new predictand. In addition, the approach allowed for new degrees of freedom, such as a weighting between the pressure levels, and non overlapping spatial windows. Genetic algorithms were then used further in order to automatically select predictor variables and analogy criteria. This resulted in interesting outputs, providing new predictor-criterion combinations. However, some limitations of the approach were encountered, and the need of the expert input is likely to remain necessary. Nevertheless, letting GAs exploring a dataset for the best predictor for a predictand of interest is certainly a useful tool, particularly when applied for a new predictand or a new region under different climatic characteristics.

Interacting Social and Environmental Predictors for the Spatial Distribution of Conservation Lands

PubMed Central

Baldwin, Robert F.; Leonard, Paul B.

2015-01-01

Conservation decisions should be evaluated for how they meet conservation goals at multiple spatial extents. Conservation easements are land use decisions resulting from a combination of social and environmental conditions. An emerging area of research is the evaluation of spatial distribution of easements and their spatial correlates. We tested the relative influence of interacting social and environmental variables on the spatial distribution of conservation easements by ownership category and conservation status. For the Appalachian region of the United States, an area with a long history of human occupation and complex land uses including public-private conservation, we found that settlement, economic, topographic, and environmental data associated with spatial distribution of easements (N = 4813). Compared to random locations, easements were more likely to be found in lower elevations, in areas of greater agricultural productivity, farther from public protected areas, and nearer other human features. Analysis of ownership and conservation status revealed sources of variation, with important differences between local and state government ownerships relative to non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP program status levels. NGOs were more likely to have easements nearer protected areas, and higher conservation status, while local governments held easements closer to settlement, and on lands of greater agricultural potential. Logistic interactions revealed environmental variables having effects modified by social correlates, and the strongest predictors overall were social (distance to urban area, median household income, housing density, distance to land trust office). Spatial distribution of conservation lands may be affected by geographic area of influence of conservation groups, suggesting that multi-scale conservation planning strategies may be necessary to satisfy local and regional needs for reserve networks. Our results support previous findings and provide an ecoregion-scale view that conservation easements may provide, at local scales, conservation functions on productive, more developable lands. Conservation easements may complement functions of public protected areas but more research should examine relative landscape-level ecological functions of both forms of protection. PMID:26465155

Interacting Social and Environmental Predictors for the Spatial Distribution of Conservation Lands.

PubMed

Baldwin, Robert F; Leonard, Paul B

2015-01-01

Conservation decisions should be evaluated for how they meet conservation goals at multiple spatial extents. Conservation easements are land use decisions resulting from a combination of social and environmental conditions. An emerging area of research is the evaluation of spatial distribution of easements and their spatial correlates. We tested the relative influence of interacting social and environmental variables on the spatial distribution of conservation easements by ownership category and conservation status. For the Appalachian region of the United States, an area with a long history of human occupation and complex land uses including public-private conservation, we found that settlement, economic, topographic, and environmental data associated with spatial distribution of easements (N = 4813). Compared to random locations, easements were more likely to be found in lower elevations, in areas of greater agricultural productivity, farther from public protected areas, and nearer other human features. Analysis of ownership and conservation status revealed sources of variation, with important differences between local and state government ownerships relative to non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP program status levels. NGOs were more likely to have easements nearer protected areas, and higher conservation status, while local governments held easements closer to settlement, and on lands of greater agricultural potential. Logistic interactions revealed environmental variables having effects modified by social correlates, and the strongest predictors overall were social (distance to urban area, median household income, housing density, distance to land trust office). Spatial distribution of conservation lands may be affected by geographic area of influence of conservation groups, suggesting that multi-scale conservation planning strategies may be necessary to satisfy local and regional needs for reserve networks. Our results support previous findings and provide an ecoregion-scale view that conservation easements may provide, at local scales, conservation functions on productive, more developable lands. Conservation easements may complement functions of public protected areas but more research should examine relative landscape-level ecological functions of both forms of protection.

Radiotherapy is associated with significant improvement in local and regional control in Merkel cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare tumour of skin. This study is a retrospective audit of patients with MCC from St Vincent’s and Mater Hospital, Sydney, Australia. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of radiotherapy (RT) on the local and regional control of MCC lesions and survival of patients with MCC. Method The data bases in anatomical pathology, RT and surgery. We searched for patients having a diagnosis of MCC between 1996 and 2007. Patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were collected and analysed. Univariate survival analysis of categorical variables was conducted with the Kaplan-Meier method together with the Log-Rank test for statistical significance. Continuous variables were assessed using the Cox regression method. Multivariate analysis was performed for significant univariate results. Results Sixty seven patients were found. Sixty two who were stage I-III and were treated with radical intent were analysed. 68% were male. The median age was 74 years. Forty-two cases (68%) were stage I or II, and 20 cases (32%) were stage III. For the subset of 42 stage I and II patients, those that had RT to their primary site had a 2-year local recurrence free survival of 89% compared with 36% for patients not receiving RT (p<0.001). The cumulative 2-year regional recurrence free survival for patients having adjuvant regional RT was 84% compared with 43% for patients not receiving this treatment (p<0.001). Immune status at initial surgery was a significant predictor for OS and MCCSS. In a multivariate analysis combining macroscopic size (mm) and immune status at initial surgery, only immune status remained a significant predictor of overall survival (HR=2.096, 95% CI: 1.002-4.385, p=0.049). Conclusions RT is associated with significant improvement in local and regional control in Merkel cell carcinoma. Immunosuppression is an important factor in overall survival. PMID:23075308

Linking storm surge activity and circulation variability along the Spanish coast through a synoptic pattern classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, Domingo; Garcia Codrón, Juan Carlos

2010-05-01

The potentially negative consequences resulting from the estimations of global sea level rising along the current century are a matter of serious concern in many coastal areas worldwide. Most of the negative consequences of the sea level variability, such as flooding or erosion, are linked to episodic events of strong atmospheric forcing represented by deep atmospheric disturbances, especially if they combine with extreme astronomical high tides. Moreover, the interaction between the prevailing flows during such events and the actual orientation of the coast line might accelerate or mitigate such impacts. This contribution analyses sea surge variations measured at five tide-gauge stations located around the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns with local-scale winds. Its aim is to improve the knowledge of surge related-coastal-risks by analysing the relationship between surges and their atmospheric forcing factors at different spatial scales. The oceanographic data set consists of hourly data from 5 tide gauge stations (Santander, Vigo, Bonanza, Málaga, Valencia and Barcelona) disseminated along the Spanish coastline, provided by Puertos del Estado. To explore the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the sign and magnitude of sea surges, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the Atlantic and local information (synop reports) obtained from the closest meteorological stations to the tide gauges. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The second task was to evaluate the performance of each circulation type on the spatial patterns of a daily fire danger risk index (Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI). Finally, anomaly maps of several surface and low level climate variables, corresponding to the dates of ignition of the very large forest fires within each synoptic pattern, were calculated to provide insight of the specific conditions associated to those extreme events. A principal component analysis upon 6 hourly residuals highlighted the homogeneous behaviour of the tide gauges and provided a regional quantitative index to identify the largest storm surges. The leading PCA displayed a homogeneous spatial pattern, describing the low frequency variability along the entire coast, in spite of different orientations of the coast, accounting for more than 80% of the total variability. The second PCA displayed opposite phases between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the results suggest that surges are a regional rather than local phenomenon, probably related to the same single physical forcing. The comparison between extreme surge events and circulation patterns highlighted that single physical mechanism is represented by extratropical cyclonic disturbances located at the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, responsible for an environment characterized by low pressure readings and westerly-southwesterly winds. That wind pattern acquires an onshore component in the Atlantic coast, but becomes offshore in the Mediterranean. So, the main mechanism responsible for those storm surges is the inverse barometer effect, being the wind dragging secondary. The main physical forcing of the storm surges, the extratropical cyclones, have experience a reduction of this frequency and a marked reduction in their strength since 1950, replaced by stable circulations. Both conditions suggest a long term reduction of the frequency and the magnitude of storm surges.

Decreased Radiation Exposure and Increased Efficacy in Extracorporeal Lithotripsy Using a New Ultrasound Stone Locking System.

PubMed

Abid, Nadia; Ravier, Emmanuel; Promeyrat, Xavier; Codas, Ricardo; Fehri, Hakim Fassi; Crouzet, Sebastien; Martin, Xavier

2015-11-01

To compare fluoroscopy duration, radiation dose, and efficacy of two ultrasound stone localization systems during extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) treatment. Monocentric prospective data were obtained from patients consecutively treated for renal stones using the Sonolith(®) i-sys (EDAP TMS) lithotripter, with fluoroscopy combined with ultrasound localization using an "outline" Automatic Ultrasound Positioning Support (AUPS) (group A), or the "free-line" Visio-Track (VT) (EDAP-TMS) hand-held three-dimensional ultrasound stone locking system (group B). Efficacy rate was defined as the within-groups proportion stone free or with partial stone fragmentation not needing additional procedures. Statistical analysis used Pearson chi-square tests for categoric variables, nonparametric Mann-Whitney tests for continuous variables, and linear regression for operator learning curve with VT. Continuous variables were reported as median (range) values. Patients in group A (n=73) and group B (n=81) were comparable in baseline characteristics (age, kidney stone size, others) and in SWL application (duration, number of shocks, energy [Joules]). During SWL, the median (range) duration (seconds) of radiation exposure was 159.5 (0-690) in group A and 3.5 (0-478) in group B (P<0.001) and irradiation dose (mGy.cm(2)), 10598 (0-54843) in group A and 163 (0-13926) in group B (P<0.001). Fluoroscopy time significantly decreased with operator experience using VT. The efficacy rate was 54.5% in group A and 79.5% in group B (P=0.001). VT significantly reduced fluoroscopy use during SWL and the duration and dose of patient exposure to ionizing radiation. Stone treatment efficacy was significantly greater with VT mainly because of a better real-time monitoring of the stone.

Correspondence model-based 4D VMAT dose simulation for analysis of local metastasis recurrence after extracranial SBRT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sothmann, T.; Gauer, T.; Wilms, M.; Werner, R.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to introduce a novel approach to incorporate patient-specific breathing variability information into 4D dose simulation of volumetric arc therapy (VMAT)-based stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) of extracranial metastases. Feasibility of the approach is illustrated by application to treatment planning and motion data of lung and liver metastasis patients. The novel 4D dose simulation approach makes use of a regression-based correspondence model that allows representing patient motion variability by breathing signal-steered interpolation and extrapolation of deformable image registration motion fields. To predict the internal patient motion during treatment with only external breathing signal measurements being available, the patients’ internal motion information and external breathing signals acquired during 4D CT imaging were correlated. Combining the correspondence model, patient-specific breathing signal measurements during treatment and time-resolved information about dose delivery, reconstruction of a motion variability-affected dose becomes possible. As a proof of concept, the proposed approach is illustrated by a retrospective 4D simulation of VMAT-based SBRT treatment of ten patients with 15 treated lung and liver metastases and known clinical endpoints for the individual metastases (local metastasis recurrence yes/no). Resulting 4D-simulated dose distributions were compared to motion-affected dose distributions estimated by standard 4D CT-only dose accumulation and the originally (i.e. statically) planned dose distributions by means of GTV D98 indices (dose to 98% of the GTV volume). A potential linkage of metastasis-specific endpoints to differences between GTV D98 indices of planned and 4D-simulated dose distributions was analyzed.

Subtidal sea level variability in a shallow Mississippi River deltaic estuary, Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snedden, G.A.; Cable, J.E.; Wiseman, W.J.

2007-01-01

The relative roles of river, atmospheric, and tidal forcings on estuarine sea level variability are examined in Breton Sound, a shallow (0.7 m) deltaic estuary situated in an interdistributary basin on the Mississippi River deltaic plain. The deltaic landscape contains vegetated marshes, tidal flats, circuitous channels, and other features that frictionally dissipate waves propagating through the system. Direct forcing by local wind stress over the surface of the estuary is minimal, owing to the lack of significant fetch due to landscape features of the estuary. Atmospheric forcing occurs almost entirely through remote forcing, where alongshore winds facilitate estuary-shelf exchange through coastal Ekman convergence. The highly frictional nature of the deltaic landscape causes the estuary to act as a low-pass filter to remote atmospheric forcing, where high-frequency, coastally-induced fluctuations are significantly damped, and the damping increases with distance from the estuary mouth. During spring, when substantial quantities of controlled Mississippi River inputs (q?? = 62 m3 s-1) are discharged into the estuary, upper estuary subtidal sea levels are forced by a combination of river and remote atmospheric forcings, while river effects are less clear downestuary. During autumn (q?? = 7 m3 s-1) sea level variability throughout the estuary is governed entirely by coastal variations at the marine boundary. A frequency-dependent analytical model, previously used to describe sea level dynamics forced by local wind stress and coastal forcing in deeper, less frictional systems, is applied in the shallow Breton Sound estuary. In contrast to deeper systems where coastally-induced fluctuations exhibit little or no frictional attenuation inside the estuary, these fluctuations in the shallow Breton Sound estuary show strong frequency-dependent amplitude reductions that extend well into the subtidal frequency spectrum. ?? 2007 Estuarine Research Federation.

Examination of the uncertainty in contaminant fate and transport modeling: a case study in the Venice Lagoon.

PubMed

Sommerfreund, J; Arhonditsis, G B; Diamond, M L; Frignani, M; Capodaglio, G; Gerino, M; Bellucci, L; Giuliani, S; Mugnai, C

2010-03-01

A Monte Carlo analysis is used to quantify environmental parametric uncertainty in a multi-segment, multi-chemical model of the Venice Lagoon. Scientific knowledge, expert judgment and observational data are used to formulate prior probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty pertaining to 43 environmental system parameters. The propagation of this uncertainty through the model is then assessed by a comparative analysis of the moments (central tendency, dispersion) of the model output distributions. We also apply principal component analysis in combination with correlation analysis to identify the most influential parameters, thereby gaining mechanistic insights into the ecosystem functioning. We found that modeled concentrations of Cu, Pb, OCDD/F and PCB-180 varied by up to an order of magnitude, exhibiting both contaminant- and site-specific variability. These distributions generally overlapped with the measured concentration ranges. We also found that the uncertainty of the contaminant concentrations in the Venice Lagoon was characterized by two modes of spatial variability, mainly driven by the local hydrodynamic regime, which separate the northern and central parts of the lagoon and the more isolated southern basin. While spatial contaminant gradients in the lagoon were primarily shaped by hydrology, our analysis also shows that the interplay amongst the in-place historical pollution in the central lagoon, the local suspended sediment concentrations and the sediment burial rates exerts significant control on the variability of the contaminant concentrations. We conclude that the probabilistic analysis presented herein is valuable for quantifying uncertainty and probing its cause in over-parameterized models, while some of our results can be used to dictate where additional data collection efforts should focus on and the directions that future model refinement should follow. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williamson, Mark S.; Son Wonmin; Heaney, Libby

Recently, it was demonstrated by Son et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 110404 (2009), that a separable bipartite continuous-variable quantum system can violate the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) inequality via operationally local transformations. Operationally local transformations are parametrized only by local variables; however, in order to allow violation of the CHSH inequality, a maximally entangled ancilla was necessary. The use of the entangled ancilla in this scheme caused the state under test to become dependent on the measurement choice one uses to calculate the CHSH inequality, thus violating one of the assumptions used in deriving a Bell inequality, namely, the free willmore » or statistical independence assumption. The novelty in this scheme however is that the measurement settings can be external free parameters. In this paper, we generalize these operationally local transformations for multipartite Bell inequalities (with dichotomic observables) and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for violation within this scheme. Namely, a violation of a multipartite Bell inequality in this setting is contingent on whether an ancillary system admits any realistic local hidden variable model (i.e., whether the ancilla violates the given Bell inequality). These results indicate that violation of a Bell inequality performed on a system does not necessarily imply that the system is nonlocal. In fact, the system under test may be completely classical. However, nonlocality must have resided somewhere, this may have been in the environment, the physical variables used to manipulate the system or the detectors themselves provided the measurement settings are external free variables.« less

Surfing wave climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

2014-10-01

International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well-constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (N a). These terms are further parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal timescales N a is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Nmore » a based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter N a concentrations are made using the simplified steady-state model and seasonal mean observed variables, and are found to match well with the observed N a. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g. precipitation rate, free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in N a, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.« less

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

DOE PAGES

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy; ...

2018-01-21

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well-constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (N a). These terms are further parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal timescales N a is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Nmore » a based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter N a concentrations are made using the simplified steady-state model and seasonal mean observed variables, and are found to match well with the observed N a. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g. precipitation rate, free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in N a, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.« less

Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy; Eastman, Ryan; Luke, Edward

2018-01-01

Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (Na). These terms are then parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal time scales Na is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Na based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter Na concentrations are made using the simplified steady state model and seasonal mean observed variables. These are found to match well with the observed Na. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g., precipitation rate and free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in Na, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.

Finite-deformation phase-field chemomechanics for multiphase, multicomponent solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svendsen, Bob; Shanthraj, Pratheek; Raabe, Dierk

2018-03-01

The purpose of this work is the development of a framework for the formulation of geometrically non-linear inelastic chemomechanical models for a mixture of multiple chemical components diffusing among multiple transforming solid phases. The focus here is on general model formulation. No specific model or application is pursued in this work. To this end, basic balance and constitutive relations from non-equilibrium thermodynamics and continuum mixture theory are combined with a phase-field-based description of multicomponent solid phases and their interfaces. Solid phase modeling is based in particular on a chemomechanical free energy and stress relaxation via the evolution of phase-specific concentration fields, order-parameter fields (e.g., related to chemical ordering, structural ordering, or defects), and local internal variables. At the mixture level, differences or contrasts in phase composition and phase local deformation in phase interface regions are treated as mixture internal variables. In this context, various phase interface models are considered. In the equilibrium limit, phase contrasts in composition and local deformation in the phase interface region are determined via bulk energy minimization. On the chemical side, the equilibrium limit of the current model formulation reduces to a multicomponent, multiphase, generalization of existing two-phase binary alloy interface equilibrium conditions (e.g., KKS). On the mechanical side, the equilibrium limit of one interface model considered represents a multiphase generalization of Reuss-Sachs conditions from mechanical homogenization theory. Analogously, other interface models considered represent generalizations of interface equilibrium conditions consistent with laminate and sharp-interface theory. In the last part of the work, selected existing models are formulated within the current framework as special cases and discussed in detail.

Genomic correlates of recombination rate and its variability across eight recombination maps in the western honey bee (Apis mellifera L.).

PubMed

Ross, Caitlin R; DeFelice, Dominick S; Hunt, Greg J; Ihle, Kate E; Amdam, Gro V; Rueppell, Olav

2015-02-21

Meiotic recombination has traditionally been explained based on the structural requirement to stabilize homologous chromosome pairs to ensure their proper meiotic segregation. Competing hypotheses seek to explain the emerging findings of significant heterogeneity in recombination rates within and between genomes, but intraspecific comparisons of genome-wide recombination patterns are rare. The honey bee (Apis mellifera) exhibits the highest rate of genomic recombination among multicellular animals with about five cross-over events per chromatid. Here, we present a comparative analysis of recombination rates across eight genetic linkage maps of the honey bee genome to investigate which genomic sequence features are correlated with recombination rate and with its variation across the eight data sets, ranging in average marker spacing ranging from 1 Mbp to 120 kbp. Overall, we found that GC content explained best the variation in local recombination rate along chromosomes at the analyzed 100 kbp scale. In contrast, variation among the different maps was correlated to the abundance of microsatellites and several specific tri- and tetra-nucleotides. The combined evidence from eight medium-scale recombination maps of the honey bee genome suggests that recombination rate variation in this highly recombining genome might be due to the DNA configuration instead of distinct sequence motifs. However, more fine-scale analyses are needed. The empirical basis of eight differing genetic maps allowed for robust conclusions about the correlates of the local recombination rates and enabled the study of the relation between DNA features and variability in local recombination rates, which is particularly relevant in the honey bee genome with its exceptionally high recombination rate.

Integrating artificial intelligence with real-time intracranial EEG monitoring to automate interictal identification of seizure onset zones in focal epilepsy.

PubMed

Varatharajah, Yogatheesan; Berry, Brent; Cimbalnik, Jan; Kremen, Vaclav; Van Gompel, Jamie; Stead, Matt; Brinkmann, Benjamin; Iyer, Ravishankar; Worrell, Gregory

2018-08-01

An ability to map seizure-generating brain tissue, i.e. the seizure onset zone (SOZ), without recording actual seizures could reduce the duration of invasive EEG monitoring for patients with drug-resistant epilepsy. A widely-adopted practice in the literature is to compare the incidence (events/time) of putative pathological electrophysiological biomarkers associated with epileptic brain tissue with the SOZ determined from spontaneous seizures recorded with intracranial EEG, primarily using a single biomarker. Clinical translation of the previous efforts suffers from their inability to generalize across multiple patients because of (a) the inter-patient variability and (b) the temporal variability in the epileptogenic activity. Here, we report an artificial intelligence-based approach for combining multiple interictal electrophysiological biomarkers and their temporal characteristics as a way of accounting for the above barriers and show that it can reliably identify seizure onset zones in a study cohort of 82 patients who underwent evaluation for drug-resistant epilepsy. Our investigation provides evidence that utilizing the complementary information provided by multiple electrophysiological biomarkers and their temporal characteristics can significantly improve the localization potential compared to previously published single-biomarker incidence-based approaches, resulting in an average area under ROC curve (AUC) value of 0.73 in a cohort of 82 patients. Our results also suggest that recording durations between 90 min and 2 h are sufficient to localize SOZs with accuracies that may prove clinically relevant. The successful validation of our approach on a large cohort of 82 patients warrants future investigation on the feasibility of utilizing intra-operative EEG monitoring and artificial intelligence to localize epileptogenic brain tissue. Broadly, our study demonstrates the use of artificial intelligence coupled with careful feature engineering in augmenting clinical decision making.

Combined electroencephalography-functional magnetic resonance imaging and electrical source imaging improves localization of pediatric focal epilepsy.

PubMed

Centeno, Maria; Tierney, Tim M; Perani, Suejen; Shamshiri, Elhum A; St Pier, Kelly; Wilkinson, Charlotte; Konn, Daniel; Vulliemoz, Serge; Grouiller, Frédéric; Lemieux, Louis; Pressler, Ronit M; Clark, Christopher A; Cross, J Helen; Carmichael, David W

2017-08-01

Surgical treatment in epilepsy is effective if the epileptogenic zone (EZ) can be correctly localized and characterized. Here we use simultaneous electroencephalography-functional magnetic resonance imaging (EEG-fMRI) data to derive EEG-fMRI and electrical source imaging (ESI) maps. Their yield and their individual and combined ability to (1) localize the EZ and (2) predict seizure outcome were then evaluated. Fifty-three children with drug-resistant epilepsy underwent EEG-fMRI. Interictal discharges were mapped using both EEG-fMRI hemodynamic responses and ESI. A single localization was derived from each individual test (EEG-fMRI global maxima [GM]/ESI maximum) and from the combination of both maps (EEG-fMRI/ESI spatial intersection). To determine the localization accuracy and its predictive performance, the individual and combined test localizations were compared to the presumed EZ and to the postsurgical outcome. Fifty-two of 53 patients had significant maps: 47 of 53 for EEG-fMRI, 44 of 53 for ESI, and 34 of 53 for both. The EZ was well characterized in 29 patients; 26 had an EEG-fMRI GM localization that was correct in 11, 22 patients had ESI localization that was correct in 17, and 12 patients had combined EEG-fMRI and ESI that was correct in 11. Seizure outcome following resection was correctly predicted by EEG-fMRI GM in 8 of 20 patients, and by the ESI maximum in 13 of 16. The combined EEG-fMRI/ESI region entirely predicted outcome in 9 of 9 patients, including 3 with no lesion visible on MRI. EEG-fMRI combined with ESI provides a simple unbiased localization that may predict surgery better than each individual test, including in MRI-negative patients. Ann Neurol 2017;82:278-287. © 2017 American Neurological Association.

Climate-related relative sea-level changes from Chesapeake Bay, U.S. Atlantic coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Timothy; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Cahill, Niamh; Mann, Michael; Engelhart, Simon; Kopp, Robert; Brain, Matthew; Clear, Jennifer; Corbett, Reide; Nikitina, Daria; Garcia-Artola, Ane; Walker, Jennifer

2017-04-01

Proxy-based reconstructions of relative sea level (RSL) from the coastlines of the North Atlantic have revealed spatial and temporal variability in the rates of RSL rise during periods of known Late-Holocene climatic variability. Regional driving mechanisms for such variability include glacial isostatic adjustment, static-equilibrium of land-ice changes and/or ocean dynamic effects as well as more localized factors (e.g. sediment compaction and tidal range change). We present a 4000-year RSL reconstruction from salt-marsh sediments of the Chesapeake Bay using a foraminiferal-based transfer function and a composite chronology. A local contemporary training set of foraminifera was developed to calibrate fossil counterparts and provide estimates of paleo marsh elevation with vertical uncertainties of ±0.06m. A composite chronology combining 30 radiocarbon dates, pollen chronohorizons, regional pollution histories, and short-lived radionuclides was placed into a Bayesian age-depth framework yielding low temporal uncertainties averaging 40 years. A compression-only geotechnical model was applied to decompact the RSL record. We coupled the proxy reconstruction with direct observations from nearby tide gauge records before rates of RSL rise were quantified through application of an Errors-In-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process model. The RSL history for Chesapeake Bay shows 6 m of rise since 2000 BCE. Between 2000 BCE and 1300 BCE, rates of RSL increasing to 1.4 mm/yr precede a significant decrease to 0.8 mm/yr at 700 BCE. This minimum coincides with widespread climate cooling identified in multiple paleoclimate archives of the North Atlantic. An increase in the rate of RSL rise to 2.1 mm/yr at 200 CE similarly precedes a decrease in the rate of RSL rise at 1450 CE (1.3 mm/yr) that coincides with the Little Ice Age. Modern rates of RSL rise (3.6 mm/yr) are the fastest observed in the past 4000 years. The temporal length and decadal resolution of the RSL reconstruction further reconciles the response of sea levels to late Holocene climate variability.

Using MERRA, AMIP II, CMIP5 Outputs to Assess Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stackhouse, P. W.; Westberg, D. J.; Hoell, J. M., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Zhang, T.

2014-12-01

In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Thus, increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is paramount to reducing energy costs and emissions. Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climates zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE (formerly known as the American Society of Hearting, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers). A significant shortcoming of the methodology used in constructing such maps is the use of surface observations (located mainly near airports) that are unequally distributed and frequently have periods of missing data that need to be filled by various approximation schemes. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the ASHRAE climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones. These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and some tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones that require longer time series to confirm. Using the uncertainties of the basic surface temperature and precipitation parameters from MERRA as determined by comparison to surface measurements, we first compare patterns and variability of ASHRAE climate zones from MERRA relative to present day climate model runs from AMIP simulations to establish baseline sensitivity. Based upon these results, we assess the variability of the ASHRAE climate zones according to CMIP runs through 2100 using an ensemble analysis that classifies model output changes by percentiles. Estimates of statistical significance are then compared to original model variability during the AMIP period. This work quantifies and tests for significance the changes seen in the various US regions that represent a potential contribution by NASA to the ongoing National Climate Assessment.

Does the poleward boundary current off Western Australia exert a dominant influence on coastal chaetognaths and siphonophores?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaughan, D. J.; Pearce, A. F.; Lewis, P. D.

2009-08-01

A transect that extended 40 km offshore across the continental shelf off Perth, Western Australia, was sampled monthly during 1997 and 1998. Zooplankton was sampled at 5 km intervals with a 300 micron-mesh bongo net deployed vertically to within 3 m of the bottom, or to a maximum depth of 70 m. Numbers of species of chaetognaths and siphonores were quantified, as were abundances of the common species from these groups and of the hydromedusae Auglaura hemistoma. The potential influences of four environmental variables (sea-level, sea surface temperature, salinity and chlorophyll concentration) on variability in diversity and abundance were assessed using generalized additive modeling. A combination of factors were found to influence the seasonal and spatial biological variability and, of these factors, non-linear relationships always contributed to the best fitting models. In all but one case, each of the environmental variables was included in the final model. The seasonally variable Leeuwin Current, whose strength is measured as variations in local sea-level, is the dominant mesoscale oceanographic feature in the study region but was not found to have an overriding influence on the shelf zooplankton. This contrasts a previous hypothesis that subjectively attributed seasonal variability of the same taxa examined in this study to seasonal variations in the Leeuwin Current. There remains a poor understanding of shelf zooplankton off Western Australia and, in particular, of the processes that influence seasonal and spatial variability. A more complete understanding of potential causative influences of the Leeuwin Current on the shelf plankton community of south-western Australia must be cognizant of a range of biophysical factors operating at both the broader mesoscale and at smaller scales within the shelf pelagic ecosystem.

Uni- and multi-variable modelling of flood losses: experiences gained from the Secchia river inundation event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Castellarin, Attilio

2017-04-01

Flood risk is function of flood hazard and vulnerability, therefore its accurate assessment depends on a reliable quantification of both factors. The scientific literature proposes a number of objective and reliable methods for assessing flood hazard, yet it highlights a limited understanding of the fundamental damage processes. Loss modelling is associated with large uncertainty which is, among other factors, due to a lack of standard procedures; for instance, flood losses are often estimated based on damage models derived in completely different contexts (i.e. different countries or geographical regions) without checking its applicability, or by considering only one explanatory variable (i.e. typically water depth). We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 200 km2 in Northern Italy. In the aftermath of this event, local authorities collected flood loss data, together with additional information on affected private households and industrial activities (e.g. buildings surface and economic value, number of company's employees and others). Based on these data we implemented and compared a quadratic-regression damage function, with water depth as the only explanatory variable, and a multi-variable model that combines multiple regression trees and considers several explanatory variables (i.e. bagging decision trees). Our results show the importance of data collection revealing that (1) a simple quadratic regression damage function based on empirical data from the study area can be significantly more accurate than literature damage-models derived for a different context and (2) multi-variable modelling may outperform the uni-variable approach, yet it is more difficult to develop and apply due to a much higher demand of detailed data.

Landscape effects on mallard habitat selection at multiple spatial scales during the non-breeding period

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beatty, William S.; Webb, Elisabeth B.; Kesler, Dylan C.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Naylor, Luke W.; Humburg, Dale D.

2014-01-01

Previous studies that evaluated effects of landscape-scale habitat heterogeneity on migratory waterbird distributions were spatially limited and temporally restricted to one major life-history phase. However, effects of landscape-scale habitat heterogeneity on long-distance migratory waterbirds can be studied across the annual cycle using new technologies, including global positioning system satellite transmitters. We used Bayesian discrete choice models to examine the influence of local habitats and landscape composition on habitat selection by a generalist dabbling duck, the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), in the midcontinent of North America during the non-breeding period. Using a previously published empirical movement metric, we separated the non-breeding period into three seasons, including autumn migration, winter, and spring migration. We defined spatial scales based on movement patterns such that movements >0.25 and <30.00 km were classified as local scale and movements >30.00 km were classified as relocation scale. Habitat selection at the local scale was generally influenced by local and landscape-level variables across all seasons. Variables in top models at the local scale included proximities to cropland, emergent wetland, open water, and woody wetland. Similarly, variables associated with area of cropland, emergent wetland, open water, and woody wetland were also included at the local scale. At the relocation scale, mallards selected resource units based on more generalized variables, including proximity to wetlands and total wetland area. Our results emphasize the role of landscape composition in waterbird habitat selection and provide further support for local wetland landscapes to be considered functional units of waterbird conservation and management.

Localized Principal Component Analysis based Curve Evolution: A Divide and Conquer Approach

PubMed Central

Appia, Vikram; Ganapathy, Balaji; Yezzi, Anthony; Faber, Tracy

2014-01-01

We propose a novel localized principal component analysis (PCA) based curve evolution approach which evolves the segmenting curve semi-locally within various target regions (divisions) in an image and then combines these locally accurate segmentation curves to obtain a global segmentation. The training data for our approach consists of training shapes and associated auxiliary (target) masks. The masks indicate the various regions of the shape exhibiting highly correlated variations locally which may be rather independent of the variations in the distant parts of the global shape. Thus, in a sense, we are clustering the variations exhibited in the training data set. We then use a parametric model to implicitly represent each localized segmentation curve as a combination of the local shape priors obtained by representing the training shapes and the masks as a collection of signed distance functions. We also propose a parametric model to combine the locally evolved segmentation curves into a single hybrid (global) segmentation. Finally, we combine the evolution of these semilocal and global parameters to minimize an objective energy function. The resulting algorithm thus provides a globally accurate solution, which retains the local variations in shape. We present some results to illustrate how our approach performs better than the traditional approach with fully global PCA. PMID:25520901

Alaska shorefast ice: Interfacing geophysics with local sea ice knowledge and use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druckenmiller, Matthew L.

This thesis interfaces geophysical techniques with local and traditional knowledge (LTK) of indigenous ice experts to track and evaluate coastal sea ice conditions over annual and inter-annual timescales. A novel approach is presented for consulting LTK alongside a systematic study of where, when, and how the community of Barrow, Alaska uses the ice cover. The goal of this research is to improve our understanding of and abilities to monitor the processes that govern the state and dynamics of shorefast sea ice in the Chukchi Sea and use of ice by the community. Shorefast ice stability and community strategies for safe hunting provide a framework for data collection and knowledge sharing that reveals how nuanced observations by Inupiat ice experts relate to identifying hazards. In particular, shorefast ice break-out events represent a significant threat to the lives of hunters. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to combine local and time-specific observations of ice conditions by both geophysical instruments and local experts, and to evaluate how ice features, atmospheric and oceanic forces, and local to regional processes interact to cause break-out events. Each year, the Barrow community builds trails across shorefast ice for use during the spring whaling season. In collaboration with hunters, a systematic multi-year survey (2007--2011) was performed to map these trails and measure ice thickness along them. Relationships between ice conditions and hunter strategies that guide trail placement and risk assessment are explored. In addition, trail surveys provide a meaningful and consistent approach to monitoring the thickness distribution of shorefast ice, while establishing a baseline for assessing future environmental change and potential impacts to the community. Coastal communities in the region have proven highly adaptive in their ability to safely and successfully hunt from sea ice over the last 30 years as significant changes have been observed in the ice zone north of Alaska. This research further illustrates how Barrow's whaling community copes with year-to-year variability and significant intra-seasonal changes in ice conditions. Hence, arctic communities that have coped with such short-term variability may be more adaptive to future environmental change than communities located in less dynamic environments.

Co-optimization of lithographic and patterning processes for improved EPE performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslow, Mark J.; Timoshkov, Vadim; Kiers, Ton; Jee, Tae Kwon; de Loijer, Peter; Morikita, Shinya; Demand, Marc; Metz, Andrew W.; Okada, Soichiro; Kumar, Kaushik A.; Biesemans, Serge; Yaegashi, Hidetami; Di Lorenzo, Paolo; Bekaert, Joost P.; Mao, Ming; Beral, Christophe; Larivière, Stephane

2017-03-01

Complimentary lithography is already being used for advanced logic patterns. The tight pitches for 1D Metal layers are expected to be created using spacer based multiple patterning ArF-i exposures and the more complex cut/block patterns are made using EUV exposures. At the same time, control requirements of CDU, pattern shift and pitch-walk are approaching sub-nanometer levels to meet edge placement error (EPE) requirements. Local variability, such as Line Edge Roughness (LER), Local CDU, and Local Placement Error (LPE), are dominant factors in the total Edge Placement error budget. In the lithography process, improving the imaging contrast when printing the core pattern has been shown to improve the local variability. In the etch process, it has been shown that the fusion of atomic level etching and deposition can also improve these local variations. Co-optimization of lithography and etch processing is expected to further improve the performance over individual optimizations alone. To meet the scaling requirements and keep process complexity to a minimum, EUV is increasingly seen as the platform for delivering the exposures for both the grating and the cut/block patterns beyond N7. In this work, we evaluated the overlay and pattern fidelity of an EUV block printed in a negative tone resist on an ArF-i SAQP grating. High-order Overlay modeling and corrections during the exposure can reduce overlay error after development, a significant component of the total EPE. During etch, additional degrees of freedom are available to improve the pattern placement error in single layer processes. Process control of advanced pitch nanoscale-multi-patterning techniques as described above is exceedingly complicated in a high volume manufacturing environment. Incorporating potential patterning optimizations into both design and HVM controls for the lithography process is expected to bring a combined benefit over individual optimizations. In this work we will show the EPE performance improvement for a 32nm pitch SAQP + block patterned Metal 2 layer by cooptimizing the lithography and etch processes. Recommendations for further improvements and alternative processes will be given.

The response of relative humidity to centennial-scale warming over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree-ring width chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Chunming; Daux, Valérie; Li, Zongshan; Wu, Xiuchen; Fan, Tianyi; Ma, Qian; Wu, Xiaoxu; Tian, Huaiyu; Carré, Matthieu; Ji, Duoying; Wang, Wenli; Rinke, Annette; Gong, Wei; Liu, Yan; Chen, Yating; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

2018-02-01

Understanding the past variability in atmospheric moisture associated with global warming is essential for reducing the uncertainties in climate projections. Such understanding is especially necessary in the Asian monsoon region in the context of increasing anthropogenic forcing. Here, we average four tree-ring width chronologies from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) over their common intervals and reconstruct the variability in regional relative humidity (RH) from the previous May to the current March over 1751-2005. In contrast to the summer drying associated with centennial-scale warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon, our RH reconstruction shows no significant centennial trend from the 1820s through the 2000s. This absence of a consistent signal is due to the combined effects of contrasting moisture trends during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal seasons, which are controlled by summer monsoon precipitation and local convective precipitation, respectively. The interannual and decadal variability of our RH reconstruction is modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); however, these links are unstable over time. Two rapid increases in moisture are found to have occurred around the 1820s and 1980s; the latter increase caused the variability in RH during the 1980s-2000s to be the largest over the entire reconstruction period.

Natural variation of fecundity components in a widespread plant with dimorphic seeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braza, Rita; Arroyo, J.; García, M. B.

2010-09-01

The number and size of seeds are the basis of the quantity and quality components of female reproductive fitness in plants, playing a central role in the evolutionary ecology of life history diversification. In this study we show and analyze the natural variability of several fecundity variables (fruit set, seed production per fruit, seed size, total seed production per plant, and proportion of small seeds) in Plantago coronopus, a widespread, short-lived herb with dimorphic seeds. The structure of such variability was examined at the individual, population (eight locations with different environments within the same region), and life history levels (annual vs perennial), and correlated to soil fertility. There was no divergence associated to the life history for any of the variables studied. Total seed production (the quantity component of female fitness) was correlated with maternal resources, while the size of the large mucilaginous, basal seeds, and the proportion of the small apical seeds (quality component) were more associated to environmental resources. Thus, internal and external resources shape different fitness components, maximizing seed production, and fitting the size and proportion of different kind of seeds to local conditions irrespective of life history. P. coronopus illustrates the versatility of short-lived widespread plants to combine fecundity traits in a flexible manner, in order to increase fitness at each of the many possible habitats they occupy over heterogeneous environments.

Genetic variability in Brazilian Capsicum baccatum germplasm collection assessed by morphological fruit traits and AFLP markers

PubMed Central

Giacomin, Renata M.; Ruas, Paulo M.; Ruas, Eduardo A.; Barbieri, Rosa L.; Rodrigues, Rosana

2018-01-01

Capsicum baccatum is one of the main pepper species grown and consumed in South America. In Brazil, it is commonly cultivated by family farmers, using mostly the genotypes bishop's hat genotypes (locally cambuci) and red chili pepper (dedo-de-moça). This study had the objective of characterizing 116 C. baccatum accessions from different regions of Brazil, based on morphological fruit descriptors and AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms) markers. Broad phenotypic variability among the C. baccatum accessions was detected when using morphological fruit descriptors. The Ward modified location model (Ward-MLM) discriminated five groups, based mainly on fruit shape. Six combinations of AFLP primers detected polymorphism in 97.93% of the 2466 identified bands, indicating the high genetic variability in the accessions. The UPGMA coincided with the Bayesian clustering analysis and three large groups were formed, separating the wild variety C. baccatum var. praetermissum from the other accessions. There was no relation between genetic distance and geographical origin of the accessions, probably due to the intense exchange of fruits and seeds between farmers. Morphological descriptors used together with AFLP markers proved efficient in detecting the levels of genetic variability among the accessions maintained in the germplasm collections. These results can be used as an additional source of helpful information to be exploited in C. baccatum breeding programs. PMID:29758023

Relative Sea Level Trends Along the Coast of the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Delebecque, C.; Islam, A. S.; Shum, C. K.

2016-12-01

In the coastal belt of the Bay of Bengal, the sea level rise is one of a major threat, linked to climate change, which drastically affects the livelihoods of millions of people. A comprehensive understanding of sea level trends and its variability in this region is therefore crucial and should help to anticipate the impacts of climate change and implement adaptation strategies. This region is bordered mostly by Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Here, we revisit the sea level changes in the Bay of Bengal region from tide gauges and satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2014. The 23 monthly mean tide gauge records, used in this study, are retrieved from PSMSL (15 records) and supplemented with Bangladeshi observations (8 records). We show that, over the satellite altimetry era, the sea level interannual/decadal variability is mainly due to ocean thermal expansion variability driven by IOD/ENSO events and their low frequency modulation. We focus on relative sea level rise at major coastal cities and try to separate the climatic signal (long term trend plus interannual/decadal variability) from local effects, in particular vertical land movements. Results from GPS are analysed where available. When no such data exist, vertical land movements are deduced from the combined use of tide gauge and altimetry data. While the analysis is performed over the whole region, a particular attention is given to the low-lyingBangladesh's coastal area.

A modern plant-climate research dataset for modelling eastern North American plant taxa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, L. M.; Grimm, E. C.; Williams, J. W.; Nordheim, E. V.

2008-12-01

Continental-scale modern pollen-climate data repositories are a primary data source for paleoclimate reconstructions. However, these repositories can contain artifacts, such as records from different depositional environment and replicate records, that can influence the observed pollen-climate relationships as well as the paleoclimate reconstructions derived from these relationships. In this paper, we address the issues related to these artifacts as we define the methods used to create a research dataset from the North American Modern Pollen Database (Whitmore et al., 2005). Additionally, we define the methods used to select the environmental variables that are best for modeling regional pollen-climate relationships from the research dataset. Because the depositional environment determines the relative strengths of the local and regional pollen signals, combining data from different depositional environments results in pollen abundances that can be influenced by the local pollen signal. Replicate records in pollen-climate datasets can skew pollen-climate relationships by causing an over- or under- representation of pollen abundances in climate space. When these two artifacts are combined, the errors introduced into pollen-climate relationship modeling are compounded. The research dataset we present consists of 2,613 records in eastern North America, of which 70.9% are lacustrine sites. We demonstrate that this new research database improves upon the modeling of regional pollen-climate relationships for eastern North American taxa. The research dataset encompasses the majority of the temperature and mean summer precipitation ranges of the NAMPD's climatic range and 40% of its mean winter precipitation range. NAMPD sites with higher winter precipitation are located along the northwestern coast of North America where a rainshadow effect produces abundant winter precipitation. We present our analysis of the research dataset for use in paleoclimate reconstructions, and recommend that mean winter and summer temperature and precipitation variables be used for pollen-climate relationship modeling.

Assessment of ecosystem health disturbance in mangrove-lined Caribbean coastal systems using the oyster Crassostrea rhizophorae as sentinel species.

PubMed

Aguirre-Rubí, J; Luna-Acosta, A; Ortiz-Zarragoitia, M; Zaldibar, B; Izagirre, U; Ahrens, M J; Villamil, L; Marigómez, I

2018-03-15

This investigation was aimed at contributing to develop a suitable multi-biomarker approach for pollution monitoring in mangrove-lined Caribbean coastal systems using as sentinel species, the mangrove cupped oyster, Crassostrea rhizophorae. A pilot field study was carried out in 8 localities (3 in Nicaragua; 5 in Colombia), characterized by different environmental conditions and subjected to different levels and types of pollution. Samples were collected in the rainy and dry seasons of 2012-2013. The biological effects at different levels of biological complexity (Stress-on-Stress response, reproduction, condition index, tissue-level biomarkers and histopathology) were determined as indicators of health disturbance, integrated as IBR/n index, and compared with tissue burdens of contaminants in order to achieve an integrative biomonitoring approach. Though modulated by natural variables and confounding factors, different indicators of oyster health, alone and in combination, were related to the presence of different profiles and levels of contaminants present at low-to-moderate levels. Different mixtures of persistent (As, Cd, PAHs) and emerging chemical pollutants (musk fragrances), in combination with different levels of organic and particulate matter resulting from seasonal oceanographic variability and sewage discharges, and environmental factors (salinity, temperature) elicited a different degree of disturbance in ecosystem health condition, as reflected in sentinel C. rhizophorae. As a result, IBR/n was correlated with pollution indices, even though the levels of biological indicators of health disturbance and pollutants were low-to-moderate, and seasonality and the incidence of confounding factors were remarkable. Our study supports the use of simple methodological approaches to diagnose anomalies in the health status of oysters from different localities and to identify potential causing agents and reflect disturbances in ecosystem health. Consequently, the easy methodological approach used herein is useful for the assessment of health disturbance in a variety of mangrove-lined Caribbean coastal systems using mangrove cupped oysters as sentinel species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Learning place cells, grid cells and invariances with excitatory and inhibitory plasticity

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Neurons in the hippocampus and adjacent brain areas show a large diversity in their tuning to location and head direction, and the underlying circuit mechanisms are not yet resolved. In particular, it is unclear why certain cell types are selective to one spatial variable, but invariant to another. For example, place cells are typically invariant to head direction. We propose that all observed spatial tuning patterns – in both their selectivity and their invariance – arise from the same mechanism: Excitatory and inhibitory synaptic plasticity driven by the spatial tuning statistics of synaptic inputs. Using simulations and a mathematical analysis, we show that combined excitatory and inhibitory plasticity can lead to localized, grid-like or invariant activity. Combinations of different input statistics along different spatial dimensions reproduce all major spatial tuning patterns observed in rodents. Our proposed model is robust to changes in parameters, develops patterns on behavioral timescales and makes distinctive experimental predictions. PMID:29465399

Combined control-structure optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salama, M.; Milman, M.; Bruno, R.; Scheid, R.; Gibson, S.

1989-01-01

An approach for combined control-structure optimization keyed to enhancing early design trade-offs is outlined and illustrated by numerical examples. The approach employs a homotopic strategy and appears to be effective for generating families of designs that can be used in these early trade studies. Analytical results were obtained for classes of structure/control objectives with linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) costs. For these, researchers demonstrated that global optima can be computed for small values of the homotopy parameter. Conditions for local optima along the homotopy path were also given. Details of two numerical examples employing the LQR control cost were given showing variations of the optimal design variables along the homotopy path. The results of the second example suggest that introducing a second homotopy parameter relating the two parts of the control index in the LQG/LQR formulation might serve to enlarge the family of Pareto optima, but its effect on modifying the optimal structural shapes may be analogous to the original parameter lambda.

Dynamics in species composition of stream fish assemblages: environmental variability and nested subsets

Treesearch

Christopher M. Taylor; Melvin L. Warren

2001-01-01

Stream landscapes are highly variable in space and time and, like terrestrial landscapes, the resources they contain are patchily distributed. Organisms may disperse among patches to fulfill life-history requirements, but biotic and abiotic factors may limit patch or locality occupancy. Thus, the dynamics of immigration and extinction determine, in part, the local...

Disentangling Stability, Variability and Adaptability in Human Performance: Focus on the Interplay between Local Variance and Serial Correlation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Torre, Kjerstin; Balasubramaniam, Ramesh

2011-01-01

We address the complex relationship between the stability, variability, and adaptability of psychological systems by decomposing the global variance of serial performance into two independent parts: the local variance (LV) and the serial correlation structure. For two time series with equal LV, the presence of persistent long-range correlations…

A Proposal for Testing Local Realism Without Using Assumptions Related to Hidden Variable States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryff, Luiz Carlos

1996-01-01

A feasible experiment is discussed which allows us to prove a Bell's theorem for two particles without using an inequality. The experiment could be used to test local realism against quantum mechanics without the introduction of additional assumptions related to hidden variables states. Only assumptions based on direct experimental observation are needed.

Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

PubMed

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

State funding for local public health: observations from six case studies.

PubMed

Potter, Margaret A; Fitzpatrick, Tiffany

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study is to describe state funding of local public health within the context of state public health system types. These types are based on administrative relationships, legal structures, and relative proportion of state funding in local public health budgets. We selected six states representing various types and geographic regions. A case study for each state summarized available information and was validated by state public health officials. An analysis of the case studies reveals that the variability of state public health systems--even within a given type--is matched by variability in approaches to funding local public health. Nevertheless, some meaningful associations appear. For example, higher proportions of state funding occur along with higher levels of state oversight and the existence of local service mandates in state law. These associations suggest topics for future research on public health financing in relation to local accountability, local input to state priority-setting, mandated local services, and the absence of state funds for public health services in some local jurisdictions.

Quantifying team cooperation through intrinsic multi-scale measures: respiratory and cardiac synchronization in choir singers and surgical teams.

PubMed

Hemakom, Apit; Powezka, Katarzyna; Goverdovsky, Valentin; Jaffer, Usman; Mandic, Danilo P

2017-12-01

A highly localized data-association measure, termed intrinsic synchrosqueezing transform (ISC), is proposed for the analysis of coupled nonlinear and non-stationary multivariate signals. This is achieved based on a combination of noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition and short-time Fourier transform-based univariate and multivariate synchrosqueezing transforms. It is shown that the ISC outperforms six other combinations of algorithms in estimating degrees of synchrony in synthetic linear and nonlinear bivariate signals. Its advantage is further illustrated in the precise identification of the synchronized respiratory and heart rate variability frequencies among a subset of bass singers of a professional choir, where it distinctly exhibits better performance than the continuous wavelet transform-based ISC. We also introduce an extension to the intrinsic phase synchrony (IPS) measure, referred to as nested intrinsic phase synchrony (N-IPS), for the empirical quantification of physically meaningful and straightforward-to-interpret trends in phase synchrony. The N-IPS is employed to reveal physically meaningful variations in the levels of cooperation in choir singing and performing a surgical procedure. Both the proposed techniques successfully reveal degrees of synchronization of the physiological signals in two different aspects: (i) precise localization of synchrony in time and frequency (ISC), and (ii) large-scale analysis for the empirical quantification of physically meaningful trends in synchrony (N-IPS).

Tree rings provide a new class of phenotypes for genetic associations that foster insights into adaptation of conifers to climate change.

PubMed

Housset, Johann M; Nadeau, Simon; Isabel, Nathalie; Depardieu, Claire; Duchesne, Isabelle; Lenz, Patrick; Girardin, Martin P

2018-04-01

Local adaptation in tree species has been documented through a long history of common garden experiments where functional traits (height, bud phenology) are used as proxies for fitness. However, the ability to identify genes or genomic regions related to adaptation to climate requires the evaluation of traits that precisely reflect how and when climate exerts selective constraints. We combine dendroecology with association genetics to establish a link between genotypes, phenotypes and interannual climatic fluctuations. We illustrate this approach by examining individual tree responses embedded in the annual rings of 233 Pinus strobus trees growing in a common garden experiment representing 38 populations from the majority of its range. We found that interannual variability in growth was affected by low temperatures during spring and autumn, and by summer heat and drought. Among-population variation in climatic sensitivity was significantly correlated with the mean annual temperature of the provenance, suggesting local adaptation. Genotype-phenotype associations using these new tree-ring phenotypes validated nine candidate genes identified in a previous genetic-environment association study. Combining dendroecology with association genetics allowed us to assess tree vulnerability to past climate at fine temporal scales and provides avenues for future genomic studies on functional adaptation in forest trees. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Simultaneously driven linear and nonlinear spatial encoding fields in MRI.

PubMed

Gallichan, Daniel; Cocosco, Chris A; Dewdney, Andrew; Schultz, Gerrit; Welz, Anna; Hennig, Jürgen; Zaitsev, Maxim

2011-03-01

Spatial encoding in MRI is conventionally achieved by the application of switchable linear encoding fields. The general concept of the recently introduced PatLoc (Parallel Imaging Technique using Localized Gradients) encoding is to use nonlinear fields to achieve spatial encoding. Relaxing the requirement that the encoding fields must be linear may lead to improved gradient performance or reduced peripheral nerve stimulation. In this work, a custom-built insert coil capable of generating two independent quadratic encoding fields was driven with high-performance amplifiers within a clinical MR system. In combination with the three linear encoding fields, the combined hardware is capable of independently manipulating five spatial encoding fields. With the linear z-gradient used for slice-selection, there remain four separate channels to encode a 2D-image. To compare trajectories of such multidimensional encoding, the concept of a local k-space is developed. Through simulations, reconstructions using six gradient-encoding strategies were compared, including Cartesian encoding separately or simultaneously on both PatLoc and linear gradients as well as two versions of a radial-based in/out trajectory. Corresponding experiments confirmed that such multidimensional encoding is practically achievable and demonstrated that the new radial-based trajectory offers the PatLoc property of variable spatial resolution while maintaining finite resolution across the entire field-of-view. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Developing cross entropy genetic algorithm for solving Two-Dimensional Loading Heterogeneous Fleet Vehicle Routing Problem (2L-HFVRP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paramestha, D. L.; Santosa, B.

2018-04-01

Two-dimensional Loading Heterogeneous Fleet Vehicle Routing Problem (2L-HFVRP) is a combination of Heterogeneous Fleet VRP and a packing problem well-known as Two-Dimensional Bin Packing Problem (BPP). 2L-HFVRP is a Heterogeneous Fleet VRP in which these costumer demands are formed by a set of two-dimensional rectangular weighted item. These demands must be served by a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles with a fix and variable cost from the depot. The objective function 2L-HFVRP is to minimize the total transportation cost. All formed routes must be consistent with the capacity and loading process of the vehicle. Sequential and unrestricted scenarios are considered in this paper. We propose a metaheuristic which is a combination of the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the Cross Entropy (CE) named Cross Entropy Genetic Algorithm (CEGA) to solve the 2L-HFVRP. The mutation concept on GA is used to speed up the algorithm CE to find the optimal solution. The mutation mechanism was based on local improvement (2-opt, 1-1 Exchange, and 1-0 Exchange). The probability transition matrix mechanism on CE is used to avoid getting stuck in the local optimum. The effectiveness of CEGA was tested on benchmark instance based 2L-HFVRP. The result of experiments shows a competitive result compared with the other algorithm.

Is Ground Cover Vegetation an Effective Biological Control Enhancement Strategy against Olive Pests?

PubMed Central

Paredes, Daniel; Cayuela, Luis; Gurr, Geoff M.; Campos, Mercedes

2015-01-01

Ground cover vegetation is often added or allowed to generate to promote conservation biological control, especially in perennial crops. Nevertheless, there is inconsistent evidence of its effectiveness, with studies reporting positive, nil or negative effects on pest control. This might arise from differences between studies at the local scale (e.g. orchard management and land use history), the landscape context (e.g. presence of patches of natural or semi-natural vegetation near the focal orchard), or regional factors, particularly climate in the year of the study. Here we present the findings from a long-term regional monitoring program conducted on four pest species (Bactrocera oleae, Prays oleae, Euphyllura olivina, Saissetia oleae) in 2,528 olive groves in Andalusia (Spain) from 2006 to 2012. Generalized linear mixed effect models were used to analyze the effect of ground cover on different response variables related to pest abundance, while accounting for variability at the local, landscape and regional scales. There were small and inconsistent effects of ground cover on the abundance of pests whilst local, landscape and regional variability explained a large proportion of the variability in pest response variables. This highlights the importance of local and landscape-related variables in biological control and the potential effects that might emerge from their interaction with practices, such as groundcover vegetation, implemented to promote natural enemy activity. The study points to perennial vegetation close to the focal crop as a promising alternative strategy for conservation biological control that should receive more attention. PMID:25646778

Relative importance of local habitat complexity and regional factors for assemblages of oribatid mites (Acari: Oribatida) in Sphagnum peat bogs.

PubMed

Minor, M A; Ermilov, S G; Philippov, D A; Prokin, A A

2016-11-01

We investigated communities of oribatid mites in five peat bogs in the north-west of the East European plain. We aimed to determine the extent to which geographic factors (latitude, separation distance), local environment (Sphagnum moss species, ground water level, biogeochemistry) and local habitat complexity (diversity of vascular plants and bryophytes in the surrounding plant community) influence diversity and community composition of Oribatida. There was a significant north-to-south increase in Oribatida abundance. In the variance partitioning, spatial factors explained 33.1 % of variability in abundance across samples; none of the environmental factors were significant. Across all bogs, Oribatida species richness and community composition were similar in Sphagnum rubellum and Sphagnum magellanicum, but significantly different and less diverse in Sphagnum cuspidatum. Sphagnum microhabitat explained 52.2 % of variability in Oribatida species richness, whereas spatial variables explained only 8.7 %. There was no distance decay in community similarity between bogs with increased geographical distance. The environmental variables explained 34.9 % of the variance in community structure, with vascular plants diversity, bryophytes diversity, and ground water level all contributing significantly; spatial variables explained 15.1 % of the total variance. Overall, only 50 % of the Oribatida community variance was explained by the spatial structure and environmental variables. We discuss relative importance of spatial and local environmental factors, and make general inferences about the formation of fauna in Sphagnum bogs.

Anderson localization for radial tree-like random quantum graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hislop, Peter D.; Post, Olaf

We prove that certain random models associated with radial, tree-like, rooted quantum graphs exhibit Anderson localization at all energies. The two main examples are the random length model (RLM) and the random Kirchhoff model (RKM). In the RLM, the lengths of each generation of edges form a family of independent, identically distributed random variables (iid). For the RKM, the iid random variables are associated with each generation of vertices and moderate the current flow through the vertex. We consider extensions to various families of decorated graphs and prove stability of localization with respect to decoration. In particular, we prove Anderson localization for the random necklace model.

Evaluation of heart rhythm variability and arrhythmia in children with systemic and localized scleroderma.

PubMed

Wozniak, Jacek; Dabrowski, Rafal; Luczak, Dariusz; Kwiatkowska, Malgorzata; Musiej-Nowakowska, Elzbieta; Kowalik, Ilona; Szwed, Hanna

2009-01-01

To evaluate possible disturbances in autonomic regulation and cardiac arrhythmias in children with localized and systemic scleroderma. There were 40 children included in the study: 20 with systemic and 20 with localized scleroderma. The control group comprised 20 healthy children. In 24-hour Holter recording, the average rate of sinus rhythm was significantly higher in the groups with systemic and localized scleroderma than in the control group, but there was no significant difference between them. The variability of heart rhythm in both groups was significantly decreased. In the group with systemic scleroderma, single supraventricular ectopic beats were observed in 20% and runs were seen in 40% of patients. In the group with localized scleroderma, supraventricular single ectopic beats occurred in 35% of patients and runs in 45% of those studied. Ventricular arrhythmia occurred in 2 children with systemic scleroderma, but in 1 child, it was complex. The most frequent cardiac arrhythmias in both types of scleroderma in children were of supraventricular origin, whereas ventricular arrhythmias did not occur very often. There were no significant differences in autonomic disturbances manifesting as a higher heart rate and decreased heart rate variability between localized and systemic scleroderma.

Local quantum thermal susceptibility

PubMed Central

De Pasquale, Antonella; Rossini, Davide; Fazio, Rosario; Giovannetti, Vittorio

2016-01-01

Thermodynamics relies on the possibility to describe systems composed of a large number of constituents in terms of few macroscopic variables. Its foundations are rooted into the paradigm of statistical mechanics, where thermal properties originate from averaging procedures which smoothen out local details. While undoubtedly successful, elegant and formally correct, this approach carries over an operational problem, namely determining the precision at which such variables are inferred, when technical/practical limitations restrict our capabilities to local probing. Here we introduce the local quantum thermal susceptibility, a quantifier for the best achievable accuracy for temperature estimation via local measurements. Our method relies on basic concepts of quantum estimation theory, providing an operative strategy to address the local thermal response of arbitrary quantum systems at equilibrium. At low temperatures, it highlights the local distinguishability of the ground state from the excited sub-manifolds, thus providing a method to locate quantum phase transitions. PMID:27681458

Local quantum thermal susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Pasquale, Antonella; Rossini, Davide; Fazio, Rosario; Giovannetti, Vittorio

2016-09-01

Thermodynamics relies on the possibility to describe systems composed of a large number of constituents in terms of few macroscopic variables. Its foundations are rooted into the paradigm of statistical mechanics, where thermal properties originate from averaging procedures which smoothen out local details. While undoubtedly successful, elegant and formally correct, this approach carries over an operational problem, namely determining the precision at which such variables are inferred, when technical/practical limitations restrict our capabilities to local probing. Here we introduce the local quantum thermal susceptibility, a quantifier for the best achievable accuracy for temperature estimation via local measurements. Our method relies on basic concepts of quantum estimation theory, providing an operative strategy to address the local thermal response of arbitrary quantum systems at equilibrium. At low temperatures, it highlights the local distinguishability of the ground state from the excited sub-manifolds, thus providing a method to locate quantum phase transitions.

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology for optimization of extraction in natural products.

PubMed

Maulidiani; Rudiyanto; Abas, Faridah; Ismail, Intan Safinar; Lajis, Nordin H

2018-06-01

Optimization process is an important aspect in the natural product extractions. Herein, an alternative approach is proposed for the optimization in extraction, namely, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). The approach combines the Latin hypercube sampling, the feasible range of independent variables, the Monte Carlo simulation, and the threshold criteria of response variables. The GLUE method is tested in three different techniques including the ultrasound, the microwave, and the supercritical CO 2 assisted extractions utilizing the data from previously published reports. The study found that this method can: provide more information on the combined effects of the independent variables on the response variables in the dotty plots; deal with unlimited number of independent and response variables; consider combined multiple threshold criteria, which is subjective depending on the target of the investigation for response variables; and provide a range of values with their distribution for the optimization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Correction of local and central disorders in patients with chronic abacterial prostatitis in usage of amus-01-intramag unit].

PubMed

Glybochko, P V; Gol'braĭkh, G E; Raĭgorodskiĭ, Iu M; Valiev, A Z; Surikov, V N

2007-01-01

Combined use of dynamic magnetotherapy of local and central action in combination with antibacterial endourethral therapy and rectal administration of vitaprost arrests symptoms of chronic prostatitis. Combination of local and total dynamic magnetotherapy with application of AMUS-01-INTRAMAG unit improves erection quality in 81.8% males with psychogenic form of erectile dysfunction. There was also improvement of spermogram parameters and relieve of asthenovegetative syndrome.

Atmospheric deposition maps for the Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nanus, L.; Campbell, D.H.; Ingersoll, G.P.; Clow, D.W.; Mast, M.A.

2003-01-01

Variability in atmospheric deposition across the Rocky Mountains is influenced by elevation, slope, aspect, and precipitation amount and by regional and local sources of air pollution. To improve estimates of deposition in mountainous regions, maps of average annual atmospheric deposition loadings of nitrate, sulfate, and acidity were developed for the Rocky Mountains by using spatial statistics. A parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model (PRISM) was incorporated to account for variations in precipitation amount over mountainous regions. Chemical data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network and from annual snowpack surveys conducted by the US Geological Survey and National Park Service, in cooperation with other Federal, State and local agencies. Surface concentration maps were created by ordinary kriging in a geographic information system, using a local trend and mathematical model to estimate the spatial variance. Atmospheric-deposition maps were constructed at 1-km resolution by multiplying surface concentrations from the kriged grid and estimates of precipitation amount from the PRISM model. Maps indicate an increasing spatial trend in concentration and deposition of the modeled constituents, particularly nitrate and sulfate, from north to south throughout the Rocky Mountains and identify hot-spots of atmospheric deposition that result from combined local and regional sources of air pollution. Highest nitrate (2.5-3.0kg/ha N) and sulfate (10.0-12.0kg/ha SO4) deposition is found in northern Colorado.

Local Characteristics of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer in Response to External Pressure Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Linden, Steven; Baas, Peter; van Hooft, Antoon; van Hooijdonk, Ivo; Bosveld, Fred; van de Wiel, Bas

2017-04-01

Geostrophic wind speed data, derived from pressure observations, are used in combination with tower measurements to investigate the nocturnal stable boundary layer at Cabauw, The Netherlands. Since the geostrophic wind speed is not directly influenced by local nocturnal stability, it may be regarded as an external forcing parameter of the nocturnal stable boundary layer. This is in contrast to local parameters such as in situ wind speed, the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter (z/L) or the local Richardson number. To characterize the stable boundary layer, ensemble averages of clear-sky nights with similar geostrophic wind speed are formed. In this manner, the mean dynamical behavior of near-surface turbulent characteristics, and composite profiles of wind and temperature is systematically investigated. We find that the classification results in a gradual ordering of the diagnosed variables in terms of the geostrophic wind speed. In an ensemble sense the transition from the weakly stable to very stable boundary layer is more gradual than expected. Interestingly, for very weak geostrophic winds turbulent activity is found to be negligibly small while the resulting boundary cooling stays finite. Realistic numerical simulations for those cases should therefore have a a solid description of other thermodynamic processes such as soil heat conduction and radiative transfer. This prerequisite poses a challenge for Large-Eddy Simulations of weak wind nocturnal boundary layers.

On the Uniqueness and Consistency of Scattering Amplitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodina, Laurentiu

In this dissertation, we study constraints imposed by locality, unitarity, gauge invariance, the Adler zero, and constructability (scaling under BCFW shifts). In the first part we study scattering amplitudes as the unique mathematical objects which can satisfy various combinations of such principles. In all cases we find that locality and unitarity may be derived from gauge invariance (for Yang-Mills and General Relativity) or from the Adler zero (for the non-linear sigma model and the Dirac-Born-Infeld model), together with mild assumptions on the singularity structure and mass dimension. We also conjecture that constructability and locality together imply gauge invariance, hence also unitarity. All claims are proved through a soft expansion, and in the process we end re-deriving the well-known leading soft theorems for all four theories. Unlike other proofs of these theorems, we do not assume any form of factorization (unitarity). In the second part we show how tensions arising between gauge invariance (as encoded by spinor helicity variables in four dimensions), locality, unitarity and constructability give rise to various physical properties. These include high-spin no-go theorems, the equivalence principle, and the emergence of supersymmetry from spin 3/2 particles. We also complete the fully on-shell constructability proof of gravity amplitudes, by showing that the improved "bonus'' behavior of gravity under BCFW shifts is a simple consequence of Bose symmetry.

Thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption aspects in third grade magneto-nanofluid over a slendering stretching sheet with Newtonian conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qayyum, Sajid; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-05-01

Mathematical modeling for magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) radiative flow of third grade nano-material bounded by a nonlinear stretching sheet with variable thickness is introduced. The sheet moves with nonlinear velocity. Definitions of thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption are utilized in the energy expression. Intention in present investigation is to develop a model for nanomaterial comprising Brownian motion and thermophoresis phenomena. Newtonian conditions for heat and mass species are imposed. Governing equations of the locally similar flow are attempted through a homotopic technique and behaviors of involved variables on the flow fields are displayed graphically. It is revealed that increasing values of thermal conjugate variable corresponds to high temperature. Numerical investigation are explored to obtain the results of skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt and Sherwood numbers. It is revealed that velocity field reduces in the frame of magnetic variable while reverse situation is observed due to mixed convection parameter. Here qualitative behaviors of thermal field and heat transfer rate are opposite for thermophoresis variable. Moreover nanoparticle concentration and local Sherwood number via Brownian motion parameter are opposite.

Bivalves as indicators of environmental variation and potential anthropogenic impacts in the southern Barents Sea

PubMed Central

Carroll, Michael L.; Johnson, Beverly J.; Henkes, Gregory A.; McMahon, Kelton W.; Voronkov, Andrey; Ambrose, William G.; Denisenko, Stanislav G.

2009-01-01

Identifying patterns and drivers of natural variability in populations is necessary to gauge potential effects of climatic change and the expected increases in commercial activities in the Arctic on communities and ecosystems. We analyzed growth rates and shell geochemistry of the circumpolar Greenland smooth cockle, Serripes groenlandicus, from the southern Barents Sea over almost 70 years between 1882 and 1968. The datasets were calibrated via annually-deposited growth lines, and growth, stable isotope (δ18O, δ13C), and trace elemental (Mg, Sr, Ba, Mn) patterns were linked to environmental variations on weekly to decadal scales. Standardized growth indices revealed an oscillatory growth pattern with a multi-year periodicity, which was inversely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), and positively related to local river discharge. Up to 60% of the annual variability in the Ba/Ca could be explained by variations in river discharge at the site closest to the rivers, but the relationship disappeared at a more distant location. Patterns of δ18O, δ13C, and Sr/Ca together provide evidence that bivalve growth ceases at elevated temperatures during the fall and recommences at the coldest temperatures in the early spring, with the implication that food, rather than temperature, is the primary driver of bivalve growth. The multi-proxy approach of combining the annually integrated information from the growth results and higher resolution geochemical results yielded a robust interpretation of biophysical coupling in the region over temporal and spatial scales. We thus demonstrate that sclerochronological proxies can be useful retrospective analytical tools for establishing a baseline of ecosystem variability in assessing potential combined impacts of climatic change and increasing commercial activities on Arctic communities. PMID:19394657

The MTA at 8 Years: Prospective Follow-Up of Children Treated for Combined Type ADHD in a Multisite Study

PubMed Central

Molina, Brooke S.G.; Hinshaw, Stephen P.; Swanson, James M.; Arnold, L. Eugene; Vitiello, Benedetto; Jensen, Peter S.; Epstein, Jeffery N.; Hoza, Betsy; Hechtman, Lily; Abikoff, Howard B.; Elliott, Glen R.; Greenhill, Laurence L.; Newcorn, Jeffrey H.; Wells, Karen C.; Wigal, Timothy; Gibbons, Robert D.; Hur, Kwan; Houck, Patricia R.

2011-01-01

Objectives To determine any long-term effects, 6 and 8 years after childhood enrollment, of the randomly assigned 14-month treatments in the Multimodal Treatment Study of Children with ADHD (MTA; N=436); to test whether Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) symptom trajectory through 3-years predicts outcome in subsequent years; to examine functioning level of the MTA adolescents relative to their non-ADHD peers (Local Normative Comparison Group or LNCG; N=261). Method Mixed effects regression models with planned contrasts at 6- and 8-years tested a wide range of symptom and impairment variables assessed by parent, teacher, and youth report. Results In nearly every analysis, the originally randomized treatment groups did not differ significantly on repeated measures or newly-analyzed variables (e.g., grades earned in school, arrests, psychiatric hospitalizations, or other clinically relevant outcomes). Medication use decreased by 62% after the 14-month controlled trial, but adjusting for this did not change the results. ADHD symptom trajectory in the first 3 years predicted 55% of the outcomes. MTA participants fared worse than LNCG on 91% of the variables tested. Conclusions Type or intensity of 14 months of treatment for ADHD in childhood (at age 7.0–9.9 years old) does not predict functioning six-to-eight years later. Rather, early ADHD symptom trajectory regardless of treatment type is prognostic. This finding implies that children with behavioral and sociodemographic advantage, with the best response to any treatment, will have the best longterm prognosis. As a group, however, despite initial symptom improvement during treatment that is largely maintained post-treatment, children with Combined-Type ADHD exhibit significant impairment in adolescence. Innovative treatment approaches targeting specific areas of adolescent impairment are needed. PMID:19318991

Deriving temporally continuous soil moisture estimations at fine resolution by downscaling remotely sensed product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Yan; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jianghao; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.

2018-06-01

Land surface soil moisture (SSM) has important roles in the energy balance of the land surface and in the water cycle. Downscaling of coarse-resolution SSM remote sensing products is an efficient way for producing fine-resolution data. However, the downscaling methods used most widely require full-coverage visible/infrared satellite data as ancillary information. These methods are restricted to cloud-free days, making them unsuitable for continuous monitoring. The purpose of this study is to overcome this limitation to obtain temporally continuous fine-resolution SSM estimations. The local spatial heterogeneities of SSM and multiscale ancillary variables were considered in the downscaling process both to solve the problem of the strong variability of SSM and to benefit from the fusion of ancillary information. The generation of continuous downscaled remote sensing data was achieved via two principal steps. For cloud-free days, a stepwise hybrid geostatistical downscaling approach, based on geographically weighted area-to-area regression kriging (GWATARK), was employed by combining multiscale ancillary variables with passive microwave remote sensing data. Then, the GWATARK-estimated SSM and China Soil Moisture Dataset from Microwave Data Assimilation SSM data were combined to estimate fine-resolution data for cloudy days. The developed methodology was validated by application to the 25-km resolution daily AMSR-E SSM product to produce continuous SSM estimations at 1-km resolution over the Tibetan Plateau. In comparison with ground-based observations, the downscaled estimations showed correlation (R ≥ 0.7) for both ascending and descending overpasses. The analysis indicated the high potential of the proposed approach for producing a temporally continuous SSM product at fine spatial resolution.

Midline corpus callosum is a neuroanatomical focus of fetal alcohol damage.

PubMed

Bookstein, Fred L; Sampson, Paul D; Connor, Paul D; Streissguth, Ann P

2002-06-15

Prenatal exposure to high levels of alcohol often induces birth defects that combine morphological stigmata with neurological or neuropsychological deficits. But it has proved problematic to diagnose these syndromes in adolescents and adults, in whom the morphological signs are absent or attenuated, the behavioral deficits nonspecific, and the exposure history often difficult to reconstruct. Localizing the associated brain abnormalities might circumvent most of these difficulties. To this end, three-dimensional (3D) locations were recorded for 67 homologous points on or near the corpus callosum in magnetic resonance (MR) brain images from 60 adolescents and adults who were normal, 60 diagnosed with fetal alcohol syndrome, and 60 diagnosed with fetal alcohol effects. We combined the standard statistical approach to this type of geometric data, Procrustes analysis, with a multivariate strategy focusing on differences in variability. In this data set, the shape of the corpus callosum and its vicinity proves systematically much more variable in the alcohol-affected brains than in those of the normal subjects. From this excess variability follows a promising classification rule, having both high sensitivity (100 out of 117) and high specificity (49 out of 60) in this sample. The discrimination uses four landmark points and two summary scores of callosal outline shape. The information from the corpus callosum and vicinity, as viewed in MR brain images of full-grown subjects, may serve as a permanent record of the prenatal effects of alcohol, even in patients who are first suspected of these syndromes relatively late in life or who lack the facial signs of prenatal alcohol damage. The statistical pattern underlying the callosal diagnosis also leads to speculations on mechanisms of the prenatal damage. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Simplex-based optimization of numerical and categorical inputs in early bioprocess development: Case studies in HT chromatography.

PubMed

Konstantinidis, Spyridon; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel; Velayudhan, Ajoy

2017-08-01

Bioprocess development studies often involve the investigation of numerical and categorical inputs via the adoption of Design of Experiments (DoE) techniques. An attractive alternative is the deployment of a grid compatible Simplex variant which has been shown to yield optima rapidly and consistently. In this work, the method is combined with dummy variables and it is deployed in three case studies wherein spaces are comprised of both categorical and numerical inputs, a situation intractable by traditional Simplex methods. The first study employs in silico data and lays out the dummy variable methodology. The latter two employ experimental data from chromatography based studies performed with the filter-plate and miniature column High Throughput (HT) techniques. The solute of interest in the former case study was a monoclonal antibody whereas the latter dealt with the separation of a binary system of model proteins. The implemented approach prevented the stranding of the Simplex method at local optima, due to the arbitrary handling of the categorical inputs, and allowed for the concurrent optimization of numerical and categorical, multilevel and/or dichotomous, inputs. The deployment of the Simplex method, combined with dummy variables, was therefore entirely successful in identifying and characterizing global optima in all three case studies. The Simplex-based method was further shown to be of equivalent efficiency to a DoE-based approach, represented here by D-Optimal designs. Such an approach failed, however, to both capture trends and identify optima, and led to poor operating conditions. It is suggested that the Simplex-variant is suited to development activities involving numerical and categorical inputs in early bioprocess development. © 2017 The Authors. Biotechnology Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Environmental links to interannual variability in shellfish toxicity in Cobscook Bay and eastern Maine, a strongly tidally mixed coastal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horecka, Hannah M.; Thomas, Andrew C.; Weatherbee, Ryan A.

2014-05-01

The Gulf of Maine experiences annual closures of shellfish harvesting due to the accumulation of toxins produced by dinoflagellates of the genus Alexandrium. Factors controlling the timing, location, and magnitude of these events in eastern Maine remain poorly understood. Previous work identified possible linkages between interannual variability of oceanographic variables and shellfish toxicity along the western Maine coastline but no such linkages were evident along the eastern Maine coast in the vicinity of Cobscook Bay, where strong tidal mixing tends to reduce seasonal variability in oceanographic properties. Using 21 years (1985-2005) of shellfish toxicity data, interannual variability in two metrics of annual toxicity, maximum magnitude and total annual toxicity, from stations in the Cobscook Bay region are examined for relationships to a suite of available environmental variables. Consistent with earlier work, no (or only weak) correlations were found between toxicity and oceanographic variables, even those very proximate to the stations such as local sea surface temperature. Similarly no correlations were evident between toxicity and air temperature, precipitation or relative humidity. The data suggest possible connections to local river discharge, but plausible mechanisms are not obvious. Correlations between toxicity and two variables indicative of local meteorological conditions, dew point and atmospheric pressure, both suggest a link between increased toxicity in these eastern Maine stations and weather conditions characterized by clearer skies/drier air (or less stormy/humid conditions). As no correlation of opposite sign was evident between toxicity and local precipitation, one plausible link is through light availability and its positive impact on phytoplankton production in this persistently foggy section of coast. These preliminary findings point to both the value of maintaining long-term shellfish toxicity sampling and a need for inclusion of weather variability in future modeling studies aimed at development of a more mechanistic understanding of factors controlling interannual differences in eastern Gulf of Maine shellfish toxicity.

Regional-scale drivers of marine nematode distribution in Southern Ocean continental shelf sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauquier, Freija; Verleyen, Elie; Tytgat, Bjorn; Vanreusel, Ann

2018-07-01

Many marine meiofauna taxa seem to possess cosmopolitan species distributions, despite their endobenthic lifestyle and restricted long-distance dispersal capacities. In light of this paradox we used a metacommunity framework to study spatial turnover in free-living nematode distribution and assess the importance of local environmental conditions in explaining differences between communities in surface and subsurface sediments of the Southern Ocean continental shelf. We analysed nematode community structure in two sediment layers (0-3 cm and 3-5 cm) of locations maximum 2400 km apart. We first focused on a subset of locations to evaluate whether the genus level is sufficiently taxonomically fine-grained to study large-scale patterns in nematode community structure. We subsequently used redundancy and variation partitioning analyses to quantify the unique and combined effects of local environmental conditions and spatial descriptors on genus-level community composition. Macroecological patterns in community structure were highly congruent at the genus and species level. Nematode community composition was highly divergent between both depth strata, likely as a result of local abiotic conditions. Variation in community structure between the different regions largely stemmed from turnover (i.e. genus/species replacement) rather than nestedness (i.e. genus/species loss). The level of turnover among communities increased with geographic distance and was more pronounced in subsurface layers compared to surface sediments. Variation partitioning analysis revealed that both environmental and spatial predictors significantly explained variation in community structure. Moreover, the shared fraction of both sets of variables was high, which suggested a substantial amount of spatially structured environmental variation. Additionally, the effect of space independent of environment was much higher than the effect of environment independent of space, which shows the importance of including spatial descriptors in meiofauna and nematode community ecology. Large-scale assessment of free-living nematode diversity and abundance in the Southern Ocean shelf zone revealed strong horizontal and vertical spatial structuring in response to local environmental conditions, in combination with (most likely) dispersal limitation.

Effects of Spirulina platensis supplementation on lipid profile in HIV-infected antiretroviral naïve patients in Yaounde-Cameroon: a randomized trial study.

PubMed

Ngo-Matip, Marthe-Elise; Pieme, Constant Anatole; Azabji-Kenfack, Marcel; Biapa, Prosper Cabral Nya; Germaine, Nkenfack; Heike, Englert; Moukette, Bruno Moukette; Emmanuel, Korosky; Philippe, Stefanini; Mbofung, Carl Moses; Ngogang, Jeanne Yonkeu

2014-12-13

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and metabolic alterations are among the majors public health concern that have been reported in people living with HIV infections. Factors contributing to cardio metabolic syndrome in HIV include body fat distribution, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, cardiovascular dysfunction and inflammation. The aim of the study was to determine the effect of Spirulina platensis (Cyanobacteriaceae) supplementation versus local diet on lipid profile in HIV-infected antiretroviral-naive patients. A prospective single-blind, randomized, multicentre study was conducted from February 2010 to December 2012. A total of 320 HIV antiretroviral-naïve patients were screened and 169 were recruited in this study. Patients were randomized and received either Spirulina supplementation combined with local diet (n=82) or local diet only (n=87). Age, weight, body mass index (BMI), lipid profile, CD4 count, and local food intake variables were assessed on three separate occasions (three, six and twelve months). An average age of the patients was 35.6±9 years. The majority of participants were female 67.1%. Regarding the lipid profile, there is a significant increase in HDL-cholesterol and a significant decrease in total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides in the group of patients who consumed Spirulina platensis. A change in the atherogenic index defined by the ratio CT/HDL-C substitutable by LDL-C/HDL-C and the TC/HDL decreased significantly from 10.83 at baseline to 2.22 after 12 months (p=0.21 and p<0.0001) in the patients taking Spirulina. Nutritional supplementation with Spirulina combined with a quantitative and qualitative balanced diet for at least six months can retard an exposition to lipid abnormalities in HIV-infected antiretroviral-naive patients. Further studies are recommended on a large group of people not infected with HIV and exposed to cardiovascular risk factors.

Soil analysis in discussions of agricultural feasibility for ancient civilizations: A critical review and reanalysis of the data and debate from Chaco Canyon, New Mexico.

PubMed

McCool, Jon-Paul P; Fladd, Samantha G; Scarborough, Vernon L; Plog, Stephen; Dunning, Nicholas P; Owen, Lewis A; Watson, Adam S; Bishop, Katelyn J; Crowley, Brooke E; Haussner, Elizabeth A; Tankersley, Kenneth B; Lentz, David; Carr, Christopher; Thress, Jessica L

2018-01-01

Questions about how archaeological populations obtained basic food supplies are often difficult to answer. The application of specialist techniques from non-archaeological fields typically expands our knowledge base, but can be detrimental to cultural interpretations if employed incorrectly, resulting in problematic datasets and erroneous conclusions not easily caught by the recipient archaeological community. One area where this problem has failed to find resolution is Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, the center of one of the New World's most vibrant ancient civilizations. Discussions of agricultural feasibility and its impact on local population levels at Chaco Canyon have been heavily influenced by studies of soil salinity. A number of researchers have argued that salinized soils severely limited local agricultural production, instead suggesting food was imported from distant sources, specifically the Chuska Mountains. A careful reassessment of existing salinity data as measured by electrical conductivity reveals critical errors in data conversion and presentation that have misrepresented the character of the area's soil and its potential impact on crops. We combine all available electrical conductivity data, including our own, and apply multiple established conversion methods in order to estimate soil salinity values and evaluate their relationship to agricultural productivity potential. Our results show that Chacoan soils display the same salinity ranges and spatial variability as soils in other documented, productive fields in semi-arid areas. Additionally, the proposed large-scale importation of food from the Chuska Mountains region has serious social implications that have not been thoroughly explored. We consider these factors and conclude that the high cost and extreme inflexibility of such a system, in combination with material evidence for local agriculture within Chaco Canyon, make this scenario highly unlikely. Both the soil salinity and archaeological data suggest that there is no justification for precluding the practice of local agriculture within Chaco Canyon.

Combined influences of seasonal East Atlantic Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation to excite Atlantic multidecadal variability in a climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Cassou, Christophe

2015-01-01

The physical processes underlying the internal component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) are investigated from a 1,000-yr pre-industrial control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model. The low-frequency fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are shown to be the main precursor for the model AMV. The full life cycle of AMOC/AMV events relies on a complex time-evolving relationship with both North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) that must be considered from a seasonal perspective in order to isolate their action; the ocean is responsible for setting the multidecadal timescale of the fluctuations. AMOC rise leading to a warm phase of AMV is statistically preceded by wintertime NAO+ and EAP+ from ~Lag -40/-20 yrs. Associated wind stress anomalies induce an acceleration of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and enhanced northward transport of warm and saline subtropical water. Concurrent positive salinity anomalies occur in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas in link to local sea-ice decline; those are advected by the Eastern Greenland Current to the Labrador Sea participating to the progressive densification of the SPG and the intensification of ocean deep convection leading to AMOC strengthening. From ~Lag -10 yrs prior an AMOC maximum, opposite relationship is found with the NAO for both summer and winter seasons. Despite negative lags, NAO- at that time is consistent with the atmospheric response through teleconnection to the northward shift/intensification of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in link to the ongoing warming of tropical north Atlantic basin due to AMOC rise/AMV build-up. NAO- acts as a positive feedback for the full development of the model AMV through surface fluxes but, at the same time, prepares its termination through negative retroaction on AMOC. Relationship between EAP+ and AMOC is also present in summer from ~Lags -30/+10 yrs while winter EAP- is favored around the AMV peak. Based on additional atmospheric-forced experiments, both are interpreted as the local seasonal-dependent atmospheric response to warmer North Atlantic. Finally, advection of fresher water from the tropical basin created by local atmosphere/ocean anomalous circulation on one hand and from the Arctic on the other hand due to large-scale sea ice melting leads to decrease of density in the SPG and contributes terminating the model AMOC/AMV events. All together, the combined effects of NAO and EAP, their intertwined seasonal forcing/forced role upon/by the ocean and the primary role of salinity anomalies associated with oceanic dynamical changes acting as an integrator are responsible in CNRM-CM5 for an irregular and damped mode of variability for AMOC/AMV that takes about 35-40 (15-20) years to build up (dissipate).

A methodology for physically based rockfall hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosta, G. B.; Agliardi, F.

Rockfall hazard assessment is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. The mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope instabilities with minimal runout. Rockfall hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". This paper is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of 3-D numerical modelling on a topography described by a DEM. Maps portraying the maximum frequency of passages, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, are easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. Different methods are suggested and discussed for rockfall hazard mapping at a regional and local scale both along linear features or within exposed areas. An objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing both a positional "Rockfall Hazard Index" and a "Rockfall Hazard Vector" is presented. The opportunity of combining different parameters in the 3-D matrixes has been evaluated to better express the relative increase in hazard. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is preliminarily discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

Identifying epibenthic habitats on the Seco de los Olivos Seamount: Species assemblages and environmental characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De la Torriente, A.; Serrano, A.; Fernández-Salas, L. M.; García, M.; Aguilar, R.

2018-05-01

High habitat diversity was observed on the Seco de los Olivos Seamount (SW Mediterranean Sea), a Site of Community Importance belonging to the Spanish marine Natura 2000 Network. Thirteen epibenthic habitats were identified by analysing 55 Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) transects from 76 m to 700 m depth and derived data from multibeam bathymetry and high resolution seismic profiles. Habitat identification was based on a combination of assemblages of habitat-forming species and the environmental characteristics supporting their distribution. Depth and slope were identified as the main significant factors structuring epibenthic assemblages. The high diversity and patchiness of habitats found on the Seco de los Olivos Seamount can be explained by the high environmental variability resulting from its wide geomorphologic diversity, where flat summits, steep flanks, rocky outcrops and sedimentary moats are combined. The distribution of benthic habitats at this seamount is likely a combination of suitable ecological conditions, local recruitment, feeding strategies and attachment mechanisms. Knowledge on the occurrence of habitats in areas of natural importance is crucial to species and habitats conservation and to develop proper monitoring and management programs aimed at fulfilling European regulation requirements.

Does Saudi school furniture meet ergonomics requirements?

PubMed

Ramadan, Mohamed Zaki

2011-01-01

The goal of this research was to study the effect of adjustable imported desk and chair combinations available in the market on student performance. Six sets of chairs and tables within three different activities (reading, writing, and looking to the blackboard) were the independent variables. Evaluation of back force at 5th lumbar vertebrae and the 1st sacrum (L5/S1), subjective measures of discomfort, and the mismatch between student body dimension and classroom furniture analysis were measured. A total of 124 young male students (first through sixth-grade) participated in this experiment. The results revealed too low or too high chair and table heights relative to the students' body dimensions increased the stresses acting at L5/S1 as well as discomfort ratings. This study indicated there was a high level of body mismatch in desk-chair combinations even with the adjustable imported furniture available in the local market. Anthropometric data of Saudi students should be collected from different regions in the Kingdom and then design and development of desk-chair combinations could follow the development of a standard procedure to adapt to the needs of Saudi school children.

Synaptic Ribbon Active Zones in Cone Photoreceptors Operate Independently from One Another

PubMed Central

Grassmeyer, Justin J.; Thoreson, Wallace B.

2017-01-01

Cone photoreceptors depolarize in darkness to release glutamate-laden synaptic vesicles. Essential to release is the synaptic ribbon, a structure that helps organize active zones by clustering vesicles near proteins that mediate exocytosis, including voltage-gated Ca2+ channels. Cone terminals have many ribbon-style active zones at which second-order neurons receive input. We asked whether there are functionally significant differences in local Ca2+ influx among ribbons in individual cones. We combined confocal Ca2+ imaging to measure Ca2+ influx at individual ribbons and patch clamp recordings to record whole-cell ICa in salamander cones. We found that the voltage for half-maximal activation (V50) of whole cell ICa in cones averaged −38.1 mV ± 3.05 mV (standard deviation [SD]), close to the cone membrane potential in darkness of ca. −40 mV. Ca2+ signals at individual ribbons varied in amplitude from one another and showed greater variability in V50 values than whole-cell ICa, suggesting that Ca2+ signals can differ significantly among ribbons within cones. After accounting for potential sources of technical variability in measurements of Ca2+ signals and for contributions from cone-to-cone differences in ICa, we found that the variability in V50 values for ribbon Ca2+ signals within individual cones showed a SD of 2.5 mV. Simulating local differences in Ca2+ channel activity at two ribbons by shifting the V50 value of ICa by ±2.5 mV (1 SD) about the mean suggests that when the membrane depolarizes to −40 mV, two ribbons could experience differences in Ca2+ influx of >45%. Further evidence that local Ca2+ changes at ribbons can be regulated independently was obtained in experiments showing that activation of inhibitory feedback from horizontal cells (HCs) to cones in paired recordings changed both amplitude and V50 of Ca2+ signals at individual ribbons. By varying the strength of synaptic output, differences in voltage dependence and amplitude of Ca2+ signals at individual ribbons shape the information transmitted from cones to downstream neurons in vision. PMID:28744203

A 60-year reconstructed high-resolution local meteorological data set in Central Sahel (1950-2009): evaluation, analysis and application to land surface modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, Crystele; Cappelaere, Bernard; Demarty, Jérôme; Guichard, Françoise; Velluet, Cécile; Kergoat, Laurent; Vischel, Théo; Grippa, Manuela; Mouhaimouni, Mohammed; Bouzou Moussa, Ibrahim; Mainassara, Ibrahim; Sultan, Benjamin

2017-04-01

The Sahel has experienced strong climate variability in the past decades. Understanding its implications for natural and cultivated ecosystems is pivotal in a context of high population growth and mainly agriculture-based livelihoods. However, efforts to model processes at the land-atmosphere interface are hindered, particularly when the multi-decadal timescale is targeted, as climatic data are scarce, largely incomplete and often unreliable. This study presents the generation of a long-term, high-temporal resolution, multivariate local climatic data set for Niamey, Central Sahel. The continuous series spans the period 1950-2009 at a 30-min timescale and includes ground station-based meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature, relative and specific humidity, air pressure, wind speed, downwelling long- and short-wave radiation) as well as process-modelled surface fluxes (upwelling long- and short-wave radiation,latent, sensible and soil heat fluxes and surface temperature). A combination of complementary techniques (linear/spline regressions, a multivariate analogue method, artificial neural networks and recursive gap filling) was used to reconstruct missing meteorological data. The complete surface energy budget was then obtained for two dominant land cover types, fallow bush and millet, by applying the meteorological forcing data set to a finely field-calibrated land surface model. Uncertainty in reconstructed data was expressed by means of a stochastic ensemble of plausible historical time series. Climatological statistics were computed at sub-daily to decadal timescales and compared with local, regional and global data sets such as CRU and ERA-Interim. The reconstructed precipitation statistics, ˜1°C increase in mean annual temperature from 1950 to 2009, and mean diurnal and annual cycles for all variables were in good agreement with previous studies. The new data set, denoted NAD (Niamey Airport-derived set) and publicly available, can be used to investigate the water and energy cycles in Central Sahel, while the methodology can be applied to reconstruct series at other stations. The study has been published in Int. J. Climatol. (2016), DOI: 10.1002/joc.4874

The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The presentation concludes with a discussion of the implications for attribution research, discourse about sea-level rise, and adaptation planning.

Sedimentology of rift climax deep water systems; Lower Rudeis Formation, Hammam Faraun Fault Block, Suez Rift, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leppard, Christopher W.; Gawthorpe, Rob L.

2006-09-01

In most marine rift basins, subsidence outpaces sedimentation during rift climax times. Typically this results in sediment-starved hangingwall depocentres dominated by deep-marine mudstones, with subordinate local development of coarser clastics in the immediate hangingwall derived from restricted catchments on the immediate footwall scarp. To highlight the spatial variability of rift climax facies and the controls upon them, we have investigated the detailed three-dimensional geometry and facies relationships of the extremely well exposed Miocene, rift climax Lower Rudeis Formation in the immediate hangingwall to the Thal Fault Zone, Suez Rift, Egypt. Detailed sedimentological analyses allows the Lower Rudeis Formation to be divided into two contemporaneous depositional systems, (1) a laterally continuous slope system comprising, hangingwall restricted (< 250 m wide) slope apron, slope slumps, fault scarp degradation complex and laterally extensive lower slope-to-basinal siltstones, and (2) a localized submarine fan complex up to 1 km wide and extending at least 2 km basinward of the fault zone. Interpretation of individual facies, facies relationships and their spatial variability indicate that deposition in the immediate hangingwall to the Thal Fault occurred via a range of submarine concentrated density flows, surge-like turbidity flows, mass wasting and hemipelagic processes. Major controls on the spatial variability and stratigraphic architecture of the depositional systems identified reflect the influence of the steep footwall physiography, accommodation and drainage evolution associated with the growth of the Thal Fault. The under-filled nature of the hangingwall depocentre combined with the steep footwall gradient result in a steep fault-controlled basin margin characterised by either slope bypass or erosion, with limited coastal plain or shelf area. Sediment supply to the slope apron deposits is controlled in part by the evolution and size of small footwall drainage catchments. In contrast, the localized submarine fan is interpreted to have been fed by a larger, antecedent drainage network. The structural style of the immediate footwall is also believed to exert a control on facies development and stratigraphic evolution. In particular, fault scarp degradation is enhanced by fault propagation folding which creates basinward-dipping bedding planes in the pre-rift footwall strata that large pre-rift blocks slide on.

Comparing demographic, health status and psychosocial strategies of audience segmentation to promote physical activity.

PubMed

Boslaugh, Sarah E; Kreuter, Matthew W; Nicholson, Robert A; Naleid, Kimberly

2005-08-01

The goal of audience segmentation is to identify population subgroups that are homogeneous with respect to certain variables associated with a given outcome or behavior. When such groups are identified and understood, targeted intervention strategies can be developed to address their unique characteristics and needs. This study compares the results of audience segmentation for physical activity that is based on either demographic, health status or psychosocial variables alone, or a combination of all three types of variables. Participants were 1090 African-American and White adults from two public health centers in St Louis, MO. Using a classification-tree algorithm to form homogeneous groups, analyses showed that more segments with greater variability in physical activity were created using psychosocial versus health status or demographic variables and that a combination of the three outperformed any individual set of variables. Simple segmentation strategies such as those relying on demographic variables alone provided little improvement over no segmentation at all. Audience segmentation appears to yield more homogeneous subgroups when psychosocial and health status factors are combined with demographic variables.

Assessment of local and regional climate signals in water stable isotopes and chemistry records from new high resolution shallow ice cores in Adélie Land, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goursaud, Sentia; Masson Delmotte, Valerie; Preunkert, Susanne; Legrand, Michel; Werner, Martin

2017-04-01

Documenting climatic variations in Antarctica is important to characterize natural climate variability and to provide a long-term context for recent changes. For this purpose, ice cores are unique archives providing a variety of proxy records. While water stable isotopes are commonly used to reconstruct past temperatures, their variability may also reflect changes in moisture origin and evaporation conditions. Further information on the origin of air masses can be obtained from aerosols, through the chemical analyses of ice cores. In high accumulation regions, such as the coastal Adélie Land area, the combination of water stable isotope and chemical records is crucial to date ice cores by annual layer counting and assess the associated uncertainty on annual accumulation rates, but may also help to unveil past changes in regional atmospheric circulation. In order to document accumulation in the area from Dumont d'Urville station to the central Antarctic plateau, towards Dome C, the Agence Nationale de la Recherche ASUMA project (Improving the Accuracy of the Surface Mass Balance of Antarctica, 2014-2018) initiated new field campaigns and was successful in obtaining a network of new shallow ice cores in a previously undocumented region. Here, we will present new results from two shallow ice cores drilled in Adélie Land, the S1C1 ice core (67.71 °S, 139.83 °E ,279 m a.s.l.) drilled in January 2007 and the TA192A ice core (66.78 °S, 139.56 °E, 602 m a.s.l.). We have dated the ice cores by combining multi-parameter annual layer counting using major ions and δ18O, as well as reference horizons. This allowed us to estimate very contrasted accumulation rates (respectively 21.8 ± 6.9 cm w.e. y-1 and 73.38±21.9 cm w.e. y-1), averaged respectively over the period from 1946 to 2006 and from 1998 to 2014 . As a result, we have reconstructed annual accumulation rates, isotopic and ion time series, and investigated their characteristics (mean values, trends and periodicities). The high accumulation rates enables us to compare the ice core seasonal variations in δ18O and deuterium excess with outputs from the ECHAM5-wiso atmospheric general circulation model equipped with water stable isotopes and nudged to ERA reanalyses. We have investigated through statistical analyses the relationships between inter-annual variations in our new ice core records with local climatic parameters (near-surface temperature, wind speed and direction, local sea-ice extent), and with large-scale modes of variability (ENSO and PSA2). The first results rule out any significant multi-decadal trend and evidence decadal periodicities already documented in instrumental records. Remarkable years identified in one shallow ice core do not coincide with those identified in the other ice core. No significant correlation with local or regional climate parameters is identified. This suggests that either the ice core signals are dominated by changes in regional atmospheric circulation or that they are strongly affected very local effects of deposition and post deposition, in an area marked by strong katabatic winds.

Acupuncture at local and distal points for chronic shoulder pain: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Fu, Qing-Nan; Shi, Guang-Xia; Li, Qian-Qian; He, Tian; Liu, Bao-Zhen; Sun, San-Feng; Wang, Jun; Tan, Cheng; Yang, Bo-Feng; Liu, Cun-Zhi

2014-04-17

Chronic shoulder pain (CSP) is the third most common type of musculoskeletal pain. It has a major impact on health-related quality of life. In Chinese medicine, CSP is considered one of the conditions most amenable to treatment with acupuncture. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of local acupoints in combination with distal acupoints in pain relief and shoulder function improvement in CSP patients. This is a multicenter, single blind, factorial randomized controlled clinical trial. A total of 164 participants will be randomly allocated to four different groups: Group A will receive acupuncture at local acupoints in combination with distal acupoint. Group B will receive acupuncture at local acupoints in combination with distal non-acupoint. Group C will receive acupuncture at local non-acupoints in combination with distal acupoint. Group D will receive acupuncture at local non-acupoints in combination with distal non-acupoint. Each group will receive 12 treatments of acupuncture one to three times per week for six weeks in total. The primary outcome is shoulder pain intensity, which is graded using a 100 -mm Visual Analogue Scale. The assessment is at baseline (before treatment initiation), 6 weeks after the first acupuncture, 10 weeks after the first acupuncture and 18 weeks after the first acupuncture. This trial will be helpful in identifying whether acupuncture at local acupoints in combination with distal acupoints may be more effective than needling points separately. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register: ISRCTN61861069 (http://www.controlled-trials.com).

Mapping Arid Vegetation Species Distributions in the White Mountains, Eastern California, Using AVIRIS, Topography, and Geology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VandeVen, C.; Weiss, S. B.

2001-01-01

Our challenge is to model plant species distributions in complex montane environments using disparate sources of data, including topography, geology, and hyperspectral data. From an ecologist's point of view, species distributions are determined by local environment and disturbance history, while spectral data are 'ancillary.' However, a remote sensor's perspective says that spectral data provide picture of what vegetation is there, topographic and geologic data are ancillary. In order to bridge the gap, all available data should be used to get the best possible prediction of species distributions using complex multivariate techniques implemented on a GIS. Vegetation reflects local climatic and nutrient conditions, both of which can be modeled, allowing predictive mapping of vegetation distributions. Geologic substrate strongly affects chemical, thermal, and physical properties of soils, while climatic conditions are determined by local topography. As elevation increases, precipitation increases and temperature decreases. Aspect, slope, and surrounding topography determine potential insolation, so that south-facing slopes are warmer and north-facing slopes cooler at a given elevation. Topographic position (ridge, slope, canyon, or meadow) and slope angle affect sediment accumulation and soil depth. These factors combine as complex environmental gradients, and underlie many features of plant distributions. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, digital elevation models, digitized geologic maps, and 378 ground control points were used to predictively map species distributions in the central and southern White Mountains, along the western boundary of the Basin and Range province. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) bands were calculated from the visible and near-infrared AVIRIS bands, and combined with digitized geologic maps and topographic variables using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). CCA allows for modeling species 'envelopes' in multidimensional environmental space, which can then be projected across entire landscapes.

Local hidden-variable model for a recent experimental test of quantum nonlocality and local contextuality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Cour, Brian R.

2017-07-01

An experiment has recently been performed to demonstrate quantum nonlocality by establishing contextuality in one of a pair of photons encoding four qubits; however, low detection efficiencies and use of the fair-sampling hypothesis leave these results open to possible criticism due to the detection loophole. In this Letter, a physically motivated local hidden-variable model is considered as a possible mechanism for explaining the experimentally observed results. The model, though not intrinsically contextual, acquires this quality upon post-selection of coincident detections.

Landscape- and local-scale habitat influences on occupancy and detection probability of stream-dwelling crayfish: Implications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magoulick, Daniel D.; DiStefano, Robert J.; Imhoff, Emily M.; Nolen, Matthew S.; Wagner, Brian K.

2017-01-01

Crayfish are ecologically important in freshwater systems worldwide and are imperiled in North America and globally. We sought to examine landscape- to local-scale environmental variables related to occupancy and detection probability of a suite of stream-dwelling crayfish species. We used a quantitative kickseine method to sample crayfish presence at 102 perennial stream sites with eight surveys per site. We modeled occupancy (psi) and detection probability (P) and local- and landscape-scale environmental covariates. We developed a set of a priori candidate models for each species and ranked models using (Q)AICc. Detection probabilities and occupancy estimates differed among crayfish species with Orconectes eupunctus, O. marchandi, and Cambarus hubbsi being relatively rare (psi < 0.20) with moderate (0.46–0.60) to high (0.81) detection probability and O. punctimanus and O. ozarkae being relatively common (psi > 0.60) with high detection probability (0.81). Detection probability was often related to local habitat variables current velocity, depth, or substrate size. Important environmental variables for crayfish occupancy were species dependent but were mainly landscape variables such as stream order, geology, slope, topography, and land use. Landscape variables strongly influenced crayfish occupancy and should be considered in future studies and conservation plans.

Morphologic and thermophysical characteristics of lava flows southwest of Arsia Mons, Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crown, David A.; Ramsey, Michael S.

2017-08-01

The morphologic and thermophysical characteristics of part of the extensive lava flow fields southwest of Arsia Mons (22.5-27.5°S, 120-130°W) have been examined using a combination of orbital VNIR and TIR datasets. THEMIS images provide context for the regional geology and record diurnal temperature variability that is diverse and unusual for flow surfaces in such close proximity. CTX images were used to distinguish dominant flow types and assess local age relationships between individual lava flows. CTX and HiRISE images provide detailed information on flow surface textures and document aeolian effects as they reveal fine-grained deposits in many low-lying areas of the flow surfaces as well as small patches of transverse aeolian ridges. Although this region is generally dust-covered and has a lower overall thermal inertia, the THEMIS data indicate subtle spectral variations within the population of lava flows studied. These variations could be due to compositional differences among the flows or related to mixing of flow and aeolian materials. Specific results regarding flow morphology include: a) Two main lava flow types (bright, rugged and dark, smooth as observed in CTX images) dominate the southwest Arsia Mons/NE Daedalia Planum region; b) the bright, rugged flows have knobby, ridged, and/or platy surface textures, commonly have medial channel/levee systems, and may have broad distal lobes; c) the dark, smooth flows extend from distributary systems that consist of combinations of lava channels, lava tubes, and/or sinuous ridges and plateaus; and d) steep-sided, terraced margins, digitate breakout lobes, and smooth-surfaced plateaus along lava channel/tube systems are interpreted as signatures of flow inflation within the dark, smooth flow type. These flows exhibit smoother upper surfaces, are thinner, and have more numerous, smaller lobes, which, along with their the channel-/tube-fed nature, indicate a lower viscosity lava than for the bright, rugged flows. Flow patterns and local interfingering and overlapping relationships are delineated in CTX images and allow reconstruction of the complex flow field surfaces. Darker channel-/tube-fed flows are generally younger than adjacent thicker, bright, rugged flows; however, the diversity and complexity of temporal relationships observed, along with the thermophysical variability, suggests that lava sources with different eruptive styles and magnitudes and/or lavas that experienced different local emplacement conditions were active contemporaneously.

Error assessment of local tie vectors in space geodesy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falkenberg, Jana; Heinkelmann, Robert; Schuh, Harald

2014-05-01

For the computation of the ITRF, the data of the geometric space-geodetic techniques on co-location sites are combined. The combination increases the redundancy and offers the possibility to utilize the strengths of each technique while mitigating their weaknesses. To enable the combination of co-located techniques each technique needs to have a well-defined geometric reference point. The linking of the geometric reference points enables the combination of the technique-specific coordinate to a multi-technique site coordinate. The vectors between these reference points are called "local ties". The realization of local ties is usually reached by local surveys of the distances and or angles between the reference points. Identified temporal variations of the reference points are considered in the local tie determination only indirectly by assuming a mean position. Finally, the local ties measured in the local surveying network are to be transformed into the ITRF, the global geocentric equatorial coordinate system of the space-geodetic techniques. The current IERS procedure for the combination of the space-geodetic techniques includes the local tie vectors with an error floor of three millimeters plus a distance dependent component. This error floor, however, significantly underestimates the real accuracy of local tie determination. To fullfill the GGOS goals of 1 mm position and 0.1 mm/yr velocity accuracy, an accuracy of the local tie will be mandatory at the sub-mm level, which is currently not achievable. To assess the local tie effects on ITRF computations, investigations of the error sources will be done to realistically assess and consider them. Hence, a reasonable estimate of all the included errors of the various local ties is needed. An appropriate estimate could also improve the separation of local tie error and technique-specific error contributions to uncertainties and thus access the accuracy of space-geodetic techniques. Our investigations concern the simulation of the error contribution of each component of the local tie definition and determination. A closer look into the models of reference point definition, of accessibility, of measurement, and of transformation is necessary to properly model the error of the local tie. The effect of temporal variations on the local ties will be studied as well. The transformation of the local survey into the ITRF can be assumed to be the largest error contributor, in particular the orientation of the local surveying network to the ITRF.

Electrical transport properties of single-crystal CaB 6 , SrB 6 , and BaB 6

DOE PAGES

Stankiewicz, Jolanta; Rosa, Priscila F. S.; Schlottmann, Pedro; ...

2016-09-22

We measure the electrical resistivity and Hall effect of alkaline-earth-metal hexaboride single crystals as a function of temperature, hydrostatic pressure, and magnetic field. The transport properties vary weakly with the external parameters and are modeled in terms of intrinsic variable-valence defects. These defects can stay either in (1) delocalized shallow levels or in (2) localized levels resonant with the conduction band, which can be neutral or negatively charged. Satisfactory agreement is obtained for electronic transport properties in a broad temperature and pressure range, though fitting the magnetoresistance is less straightforward and a combination of various mechanisms is needed to explainmore » the field and temperature dependences.« less

Optical time-of-flight and absorbance imaging of biologic media.

PubMed

Benaron, D A; Stevenson, D K

1993-03-05

Imaging the interior of living bodies with light may assist in the diagnosis and treatment of a number of clinical problems, which include the early detection of tumors and hypoxic cerebral injury. An existing picosecond time-of-flight and absorbance (TOFA) optical system has been used to image a model biologic system and a rat. Model measurements confirmed TOFA principles in systems with a high degree of photon scattering; rat images, which were constructed from the variable time delays experienced by a fixed fraction of early-arriving transmitted photons, revealed identifiable internal structure. A combination of light-based quantitative measurement and TOFA localization may have applications in continuous, noninvasive monitoring for structural imaging and spatial chemometric analysis in humans.

Optical Time-of-Flight and Absorbance Imaging of Biologic Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benaron, David A.; Stevenson, David K.

1993-03-01

Imaging the interior of living bodies with light may assist in the diagnosis and treatment of a number of clinical problems, which include the early detection of tumors and hypoxic cerebral injury. An existing picosecond time-of-flight and absorbance (TOFA) optical system has been used to image a model biologic system and a rat. Model measurements confirmed TOFA principles in systems with a high degree of photon scattering; rat images, which were constructed from the variable time delays experienced by a fixed fraction of early-arriving transmitted photons, revealed identifiable internal structure. A combination of light-based quantitative measurement and TOFA localization may have applications in continuous, noninvasive monitoring for structural imaging and spatial chemometric analysis in humans.

Optimizing the Galileo space communication link

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Statman, J. I.

1994-01-01

The Galileo mission was originally designed to investigate Jupiter and its moons utilizing a high-rate, X-band (8415 MHz) communication downlink with a maximum rate of 134.4 kb/sec. However, following the failure of the high-gain antenna (HGA) to fully deploy, a completely new communication link design was established that is based on Galileo's S-band (2295 MHz), low-gain antenna (LGA). The new link relies on data compression, local and intercontinental arraying of antennas, a (14,1/4) convolutional code, a (255,M) variable-redundancy Reed-Solomon code, decoding feedback, and techniques to reprocess recorded data to greatly reduce data losses during signal acquisition. The combination of these techniques will enable return of significant science data from the mission.

Electrical transport properties of single-crystal CaB 6 , SrB 6 , and BaB 6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stankiewicz, Jolanta; Rosa, Priscila F. S.; Schlottmann, Pedro

We measure the electrical resistivity and Hall effect of alkaline-earth-metal hexaboride single crystals as a function of temperature, hydrostatic pressure, and magnetic field. The transport properties vary weakly with the external parameters and are modeled in terms of intrinsic variable-valence defects. These defects can stay either in (1) delocalized shallow levels or in (2) localized levels resonant with the conduction band, which can be neutral or negatively charged. Satisfactory agreement is obtained for electronic transport properties in a broad temperature and pressure range, though fitting the magnetoresistance is less straightforward and a combination of various mechanisms is needed to explainmore » the field and temperature dependences.« less