Kalman filter data assimilation: targeting observations and parameter estimation.

PubMed

Bellsky, Thomas; Kostelich, Eric J; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-01

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

Kalman filter data assimilation: Targeting observations and parameter estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bellsky, Thomas, E-mail: bellskyt@asu.edu; Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex

2014-06-15

This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly locatedmore » observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.« less

Special Features of Strain Localization and Nanodipoles of Partial Disclinations in the Region of Elastic Distortions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyumentsev, A. N.; Ditenberg, I. A.; Sukhanov, I. I.

2018-02-01

In the zones of strain localization in the region of elastic distortions and nanodipoles of partial disclinations representing the defects of elastically deformed medium, a theoretical analysis of the elastically stressed state and the energy of these defects, including the cases of their transformation into more complex ensembles of interrelated disclinations, is performed. Using the analytical results, the mechanisms of strain localization are discussed in the stages of nucleation and propagation of the bands of elastic and plastic strain localization formed in these zones (including the cases of nanocrystalline structure formation).

Towards the Operational Ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Wave Field at the National Weather Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flampouris, Stylianos; Penny, Steve; Alves, Henrique

2017-04-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational wave forecast for the US National Weather Service (NWS). Given the continuous efforts to improve forecast, NCEP is developing an ensemble-based data assimilation system, based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), the existing operational global wave ensemble system (GWES) and on satellite and in-situ observations. While the LETKF was designed for atmospheric applications (Hunt et al 2007), and has been adapted for several ocean models (e.g. Penny 2016), this is the first time applied for oceanic waves assimilation. This new wave assimilation system provides a global estimation of the surface sea state and its approximate uncertainty. It achieves this by analyzing the 21-member ensemble of the significant wave height provided by GWES every 6h. Observations from four altimeters and all the available in-situ measurements are used in this analysis. The analysis of the significant wave height is used for initializing the next forecasting cycle; the data assimilation system is currently being tested for operational use.

Hydrometeorology as an Inversion Problem: Can River Discharge Observations Improve the Atmosphere by Ensemble Data Assimilation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, Yohei; Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki; Miyoshi, Takemasa

2018-01-01

We examine the potential of assimilating river discharge observations into the atmosphere by strongly coupled river-atmosphere ensemble data assimilation. The Japan Meteorological Agency's Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric Model (JMA-NHM) is first coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model. Next, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter is used for this coupled model to assimilate the observations of the rainfall-runoff model variables into the JMA-NHM model variables. This system makes it possible to do hydrometeorology backward, i.e., to inversely estimate atmospheric conditions from the information of river flows or a flood on land surfaces. We perform a proof-of-concept Observing System Simulation Experiment, which reveals that the assimilation of river discharge observations into the atmospheric model variables can improve the skill of the short-term severe rainfall forecast.

Improving precipitation forecast with hybrid 3DVar and time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuanbing; Min, Jinzhong; Chen, Yaodeng; Huang, Xiang-Yu; Zeng, Mingjian; Li, Xin

2017-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and a hybrid data assimilation system using time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event. The time-lagged ensembles are constructed by sampling from a moving time window of 3 h along a model trajectory, which is economical and easy to implement. The proposed hybrid data assimilation system introduces flow-dependent error covariance derived from time-lagged ensemble into variational cost function without significantly increasing computational cost. Single observation tests are performed to document characteristic of the hybrid system. The sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to ensemble covariance weight and localization scale is investigated. Additionally, the TLEn-Var is evaluated and compared to the ETKF(ensemble transformed Kalman filter)-based hybrid assimilation within a continuously cycling framework, through which new hybrid analyses are produced every 3 h over 10 days. The 24 h accumulated precipitation, moisture, wind are analyzed between 3DVar and the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles. Results show that model states and precipitation forecast skill are improved by the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles compared with 3DVar. Simulation of the precipitable water and structure of the wind are also improved. Cyclonic wind increments are generated near the rainfall center, leading to an improved precipitation forecast. This study indicates that the hybrid data assimilation using time-lagged ensembles seems like a viable alternative or supplement in the complex models for some weather service agencies that have limited computing resources to conduct large size of ensembles.

Residue-level global and local ensemble-ensemble comparisons of protein domains.

PubMed

Clark, Sarah A; Tronrud, Dale E; Karplus, P Andrew

2015-09-01

Many methods of protein structure generation such as NMR-based solution structure determination and template-based modeling do not produce a single model, but an ensemble of models consistent with the available information. Current strategies for comparing ensembles lose information because they use only a single representative structure. Here, we describe the ENSEMBLATOR and its novel strategy to directly compare two ensembles containing the same atoms to identify significant global and local backbone differences between them on per-atom and per-residue levels, respectively. The ENSEMBLATOR has four components: eePREP (ee for ensemble-ensemble), which selects atoms common to all models; eeCORE, which identifies atoms belonging to a cutoff-distance dependent common core; eeGLOBAL, which globally superimposes all models using the defined core atoms and calculates for each atom the two intraensemble variations, the interensemble variation, and the closest approach of members of the two ensembles; and eeLOCAL, which performs a local overlay of each dipeptide and, using a novel measure of local backbone similarity, reports the same four variations as eeGLOBAL. The combination of eeGLOBAL and eeLOCAL analyses identifies the most significant differences between ensembles. We illustrate the ENSEMBLATOR's capabilities by showing how using it to analyze NMR ensembles and to compare NMR ensembles with crystal structures provides novel insights compared to published studies. One of these studies leads us to suggest that a "consistency check" of NMR-derived ensembles may be a useful analysis step for NMR-based structure determinations in general. The ENSEMBLATOR 1.0 is available as a first generation tool to carry out ensemble-ensemble comparisons. © 2015 The Protein Society.

Residue-level global and local ensemble-ensemble comparisons of protein domains

PubMed Central

Clark, Sarah A; Tronrud, Dale E; Andrew Karplus, P

2015-01-01

Many methods of protein structure generation such as NMR-based solution structure determination and template-based modeling do not produce a single model, but an ensemble of models consistent with the available information. Current strategies for comparing ensembles lose information because they use only a single representative structure. Here, we describe the ENSEMBLATOR and its novel strategy to directly compare two ensembles containing the same atoms to identify significant global and local backbone differences between them on per-atom and per-residue levels, respectively. The ENSEMBLATOR has four components: eePREP (ee for ensemble-ensemble), which selects atoms common to all models; eeCORE, which identifies atoms belonging to a cutoff-distance dependent common core; eeGLOBAL, which globally superimposes all models using the defined core atoms and calculates for each atom the two intraensemble variations, the interensemble variation, and the closest approach of members of the two ensembles; and eeLOCAL, which performs a local overlay of each dipeptide and, using a novel measure of local backbone similarity, reports the same four variations as eeGLOBAL. The combination of eeGLOBAL and eeLOCAL analyses identifies the most significant differences between ensembles. We illustrate the ENSEMBLATOR's capabilities by showing how using it to analyze NMR ensembles and to compare NMR ensembles with crystal structures provides novel insights compared to published studies. One of these studies leads us to suggest that a “consistency check” of NMR-derived ensembles may be a useful analysis step for NMR-based structure determinations in general. The ENSEMBLATOR 1.0 is available as a first generation tool to carry out ensemble-ensemble comparisons. PMID:26032515

Generalized ensemble method applied to study systems with strong first order transitions

DOE PAGES

Malolepsza, E.; Kim, J.; Keyes, T.

2015-09-28

At strong first-order phase transitions, the entropy versus energy or, at constant pressure, enthalpy, exhibits convex behavior, and the statistical temperature curve correspondingly exhibits an S-loop or back-bending. In the canonical and isothermal-isobaric ensembles, with temperature as the control variable, the probability density functions become bimodal with peaks localized outside of the S-loop region. Inside, states are unstable, and as a result simulation of equilibrium phase coexistence becomes impossible. To overcome this problem, a method was proposed by Kim, Keyes and Straub, where optimally designed generalized ensemble sampling was combined with replica exchange, and denoted generalized replica exchange method (gREM).more » This new technique uses parametrized effective sampling weights that lead to a unimodal energy distribution, transforming unstable states into stable ones. In the present study, the gREM, originally developed as a Monte Carlo algorithm, was implemented to work with molecular dynamics in an isobaric ensemble and coded into LAMMPS, a highly optimized open source molecular simulation package. Lastly, the method is illustrated in a study of the very strong solid/liquid transition in water.« less

Generalized ensemble method applied to study systems with strong first order transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Małolepsza, E.; Kim, J.; Keyes, T.

2015-09-01

At strong first-order phase transitions, the entropy versus energy or, at constant pressure, enthalpy, exhibits convex behavior, and the statistical temperature curve correspondingly exhibits an S-loop or back-bending. In the canonical and isothermal-isobaric ensembles, with temperature as the control variable, the probability density functions become bimodal with peaks localized outside of the S-loop region. Inside, states are unstable, and as a result simulation of equilibrium phase coexistence becomes impossible. To overcome this problem, a method was proposed by Kim, Keyes and Straub [1], where optimally designed generalized ensemble sampling was combined with replica exchange, and denoted generalized replica exchange method (gREM). This new technique uses parametrized effective sampling weights that lead to a unimodal energy distribution, transforming unstable states into stable ones. In the present study, the gREM, originally developed as a Monte Carlo algorithm, was implemented to work with molecular dynamics in an isobaric ensemble and coded into LAMMPS, a highly optimized open source molecular simulation package. The method is illustrated in a study of the very strong solid/liquid transition in water.

Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Kazuo; Hara, Masahiro; Kunii, Masaru; Seko, Hiromu; Yamaguchi, Munehiko

2011-05-01

Different initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction were compared by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) as a part of the intercomparison of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). Five initial perturbation methods for mesoscale ensemble prediction were developed for B08RDP and compared at MRI: (1) a downscaling method of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week EPS (WEP), (2) a targeted global model singular vector (GSV) method, (3) a mesoscale model singular vector (MSV) method based on the adjoint model of the JMA non-hydrostatic model (NHM), (4) a mesoscale breeding growing mode (MBD) method based on the NHM forecast and (5) a local ensemble transform (LET) method based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) using NHM. These perturbation methods were applied to the preliminary experiments of the B08RDP Tier-1 mesoscale ensemble prediction with a horizontal resolution of 15 km. To make the comparison easier, the same horizontal resolution (40 km) was employed for the three mesoscale model-based initial perturbation methods (MSV, MBD and LET). The GSV method completely outperformed the WEP method, confirming the advantage of targeting in mesoscale EPS. The GSV method generally performed well with regard to root mean square errors of the ensemble mean, large growth rates of ensemble spreads throughout the 36-h forecast period, and high detection rates and high Brier skill scores (BSSs) for weak rains. On the other hand, the mesoscale model-based initial perturbation methods showed good detection rates and BSSs for intense rains. The MSV method showed a rapid growth in the ensemble spread of precipitation up to a forecast time of 6 h, which suggests suitability of the mesoscale SV for short-range EPSs, but the initial large growth of the perturbation did not last long. The performance of the MBD method was good for ensemble prediction of intense rain with a relatively small computing cost. The LET method showed similar characteristics to the MBD method, but the spread and growth rate were slightly smaller and the relative operating characteristic area skill score and BSS did not surpass those of MBD. These characteristic features of the five methods were confirmed by checking the evolution of the total energy norms and their growth rates. Characteristics of the initial perturbations obtained by four methods (GSV, MSV, MBD and LET) were examined for the case of a synoptic low-pressure system passing over eastern China. With GSV and MSV, the regions of large spread were near the low-pressure system, but with MSV, the distribution was more concentrated on the mesoscale disturbance. On the other hand, large-spread areas were observed southwest of the disturbance in MBD and LET. The horizontal pattern of LET perturbation was similar to that of MBD, but the amplitude of the LET perturbation reflected the observation density.

Rain radar measurement error estimation using data assimilation in an advection-based nowcasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merker, Claire; Ament, Felix; Clemens, Marco

2017-04-01

The quantification of measurement uncertainty for rain radar data remains challenging. Radar reflectivity measurements are affected, amongst other things, by calibration errors, noise, blocking and clutter, and attenuation. Their combined impact on measurement accuracy is difficult to quantify due to incomplete process understanding and complex interdependencies. An improved quality assessment of rain radar measurements is of interest for applications both in meteorology and hydrology, for example for precipitation ensemble generation, rainfall runoff simulations, or in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction. Especially a detailed description of the spatial and temporal structure of errors is beneficial in order to make best use of the areal precipitation information provided by radars. Radar precipitation ensembles are one promising approach to represent spatially variable radar measurement errors. We present a method combining ensemble radar precipitation nowcasting with data assimilation to estimate radar measurement uncertainty at each pixel. This combination of ensemble forecast and observation yields a consistent spatial and temporal evolution of the radar error field. We use an advection-based nowcasting method to generate an ensemble reflectivity forecast from initial data of a rain radar network. Subsequently, reflectivity data from single radars is assimilated into the forecast using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. The spread of the resulting analysis ensemble provides a flow-dependent, spatially and temporally correlated reflectivity error estimate at each pixel. We will present first case studies that illustrate the method using data from a high-resolution X-band radar network.

Analyzing the carbon cycle with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter, online transport model and real observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maki, T.; Sekiyama, T. T.; Shibata, K.; Miyazaki, K.; Miyoshi, T.; Yamada, K.; Yokoo, Y.; Iwasaki, T.

2011-12-01

In the current carbon cycle analysis, inverse modeling plays an important role. However, it requires enormous computational resources when we deal with more flux regions and more observations. The local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is an alternative approach to reduce such problems. We constructed a carbon cycle analysis system with the LETKF and MRI (Meteorological Research Institute) online transport model (MJ98-CDTM). In MJ98-CDTM, an off-line transport model (CDTM) is directly coupled with the MRI/JMA GCM (MJ98). We further improved vertical transport processes in MJ98-CDTM from previous study. The LETKF includes enhanced features such as smoother to assimilate future observations, adaptive inflation and bias correction scheme. In this study, we use CO2 observations of surface data (continuous and flask), aircraft data (CONTRAIL) and satellite data (GOSAT), although we plan to assimilate AIRS tropospheric CO2 data. We developed a quality control system. We estimated 3-day-mean CO2 flux at a resolution of T42. Here, only CO2 concentrations and fluxes are analyzed whereas meteorological fields are nudged by the Japanese reanalysis (JCDAS). The horizontal localization length scale and assimilation window are chosen to be 1000 km and 3 days, respectively. The results indicate that the assimilation system works properly, better than free transport model run when we validate with independent CO2 concentration observational data and CO2 analysis data.

Conservation of Mass and Preservation of Positivity with Ensemble-Type Kalman Filter Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janjic, Tijana; Mclaughlin, Dennis; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

2014-01-01

This paper considers the incorporation of constraints to enforce physically based conservation laws in the ensemble Kalman filter. In particular, constraints are used to ensure that the ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. In certain situations filtering algorithms such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) yield updated ensembles that conserve mass but are negative, even though the actual states must be nonnegative. In such situations if negative values are set to zero, or a log transform is introduced, the total mass will not be conserved. In this study, mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate non-negativity constraints. Simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. In two examples, an update that includes a non-negativity constraint is able to properly describe the transport of a sharp feature (e.g., a triangle or cone). A number of implementation questions still need to be addressed, particularly the need to develop a computationally efficient quadratic programming update for large ensemble.

Locally Weighted Ensemble Clustering.

PubMed

Huang, Dong; Wang, Chang-Dong; Lai, Jian-Huang

2018-05-01

Due to its ability to combine multiple base clusterings into a probably better and more robust clustering, the ensemble clustering technique has been attracting increasing attention in recent years. Despite the significant success, one limitation to most of the existing ensemble clustering methods is that they generally treat all base clusterings equally regardless of their reliability, which makes them vulnerable to low-quality base clusterings. Although some efforts have been made to (globally) evaluate and weight the base clusterings, yet these methods tend to view each base clustering as an individual and neglect the local diversity of clusters inside the same base clustering. It remains an open problem how to evaluate the reliability of clusters and exploit the local diversity in the ensemble to enhance the consensus performance, especially, in the case when there is no access to data features or specific assumptions on data distribution. To address this, in this paper, we propose a novel ensemble clustering approach based on ensemble-driven cluster uncertainty estimation and local weighting strategy. In particular, the uncertainty of each cluster is estimated by considering the cluster labels in the entire ensemble via an entropic criterion. A novel ensemble-driven cluster validity measure is introduced, and a locally weighted co-association matrix is presented to serve as a summary for the ensemble of diverse clusters. With the local diversity in ensembles exploited, two novel consensus functions are further proposed. Extensive experiments on a variety of real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach over the state-of-the-art.

Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Reggiani, P.; Weerts, A. H.

2013-09-01

The ECMWF temperature and precipitation ensemble reforecasts are evaluated for biases in the mean, spread and forecast probabilities, and how these biases propagate to streamflow ensemble forecasts. The forcing ensembles are subsequently post-processed to reduce bias and increase skill, and to investigate whether this leads to improved streamflow ensemble forecasts. Multiple post-processing techniques are used: quantile-to-quantile transform, linear regression with an assumption of bivariate normality and logistic regression. Both the raw and post-processed ensembles are run through a hydrologic model of the river Rhine to create streamflow ensembles. The results are compared using multiple verification metrics and skill scores: relative mean error, Brier skill score and its decompositions, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and its decomposition, and the ROC score. Verification of the streamflow ensembles is performed at multiple spatial scales: relatively small headwater basins, large tributaries and the Rhine outlet at Lobith. The streamflow ensembles are verified against simulated streamflow, in order to isolate the effects of biases in the forcing ensembles and any improvements therein. The results indicate that the forcing ensembles contain significant biases, and that these cascade to the streamflow ensembles. Some of the bias in the forcing ensembles is unconditional in nature; this was resolved by a simple quantile-to-quantile transform. Improvements in conditional bias and skill of the forcing ensembles vary with forecast lead time, amount, and spatial scale, but are generally moderate. The translation to streamflow forecast skill is further muted, and several explanations are considered, including limitations in the modelling of the space-time covariability of the forcing ensembles and the presence of storages.

A new transform for the analysis of complex fractionated atrial electrograms

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Representation of independent biophysical sources using Fourier analysis can be inefficient because the basis is sinusoidal and general. When complex fractionated atrial electrograms (CFAE) are acquired during atrial fibrillation (AF), the electrogram morphology depends on the mix of distinct nonsinusoidal generators. Identification of these generators using efficient methods of representation and comparison would be useful for targeting catheter ablation sites to prevent arrhythmia reinduction. Method A data-driven basis and transform is described which utilizes the ensemble average of signal segments to identify and distinguish CFAE morphologic components and frequencies. Calculation of the dominant frequency (DF) of actual CFAE, and identification of simulated independent generator frequencies and morphologies embedded in CFAE, is done using a total of 216 recordings from 10 paroxysmal and 10 persistent AF patients. The transform is tested versus Fourier analysis to detect spectral components in the presence of phase noise and interference. Correspondence is shown between ensemble basis vectors of highest power and corresponding synthetic drivers embedded in CFAE. Results The ensemble basis is orthogonal, and efficient for representation of CFAE components as compared with Fourier analysis (p ≤ 0.002). When three synthetic drivers with additive phase noise and interference were decomposed, the top three peaks in the ensemble power spectrum corresponded to the driver frequencies more closely as compared with top Fourier power spectrum peaks (p ≤ 0.005). The synthesized drivers with phase noise and interference were extractable from their corresponding ensemble basis with a mean error of less than 10%. Conclusions The new transform is able to efficiently identify CFAE features using DF calculation and by discerning morphologic differences. Unlike the Fourier transform method, it does not distort CFAE signals prior to analysis, and is relatively robust to jitter in periodic events. Thus the ensemble method can provide a useful alternative for quantitative characterization of CFAE during clinical study. PMID:21569421

Downscaling RCP8.5 daily temperatures and precipitation in Ontario using localized ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) and bias correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Ziwang; Liu, Jinliang; Qiu, Xin; Zhou, Xiaolan; Zhu, Huaiping

2017-10-01

A novel method for daily temperature and precipitation downscaling is proposed in this study which combines the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) and bias correction techniques. For downscaling temperature, the day to day seasonal cycle of high resolution temperature of the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) is used as background state. An enlarged ensemble of daily temperature anomaly relative to this seasonal cycle and information from global climate models (GCMs) are used to construct a gain matrix for each calendar day. Consequently, the relationship between large and local-scale processes represented by the gain matrix will change accordingly. The gain matrix contains information of realistic spatial correlation of temperature between different CFSR grid points, between CFSR grid points and GCM grid points, and between different GCM grid points. Therefore, this downscaling method keeps spatial consistency and reflects the interaction between local geographic and atmospheric conditions. Maximum and minimum temperatures are downscaled using the same method. For precipitation, because of the non-Gaussianity issue, a logarithmic transformation is used to daily total precipitation prior to conducting downscaling. Cross validation and independent data validation are used to evaluate this algorithm. Finally, data from a 29-member ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GCMs are downscaled to CFSR grid points in Ontario for the period from 1981 to 2100. The results show that this method is capable of generating high resolution details without changing large scale characteristics. It results in much lower absolute errors in local scale details at most grid points than simple spatial downscaling methods. Biases in the downscaled data inherited from GCMs are corrected with a linear method for temperatures and distribution mapping for precipitation. The downscaled ensemble projects significant warming with amplitudes of 3.9 and 6.5 °C for 2050s and 2080s relative to 1990s in Ontario, respectively; Cooling degree days and hot days will significantly increase over southern Ontario and heating degree days and cold days will significantly decrease in northern Ontario. Annual total precipitation will increase over Ontario and heavy precipitation events will increase as well. These results are consistent with conclusions in many other studies in the literature.

Harnessing Orbital Debris to Sense the Space Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutschler, S.; Axelrad, P.; Matsuo, T.

A key requirement for accurate space situational awareness (SSA) is knowledge of the non-conservative forces that act on space objects. These effects vary temporally and spatially, driven by the dynamical behavior of space weather. Existing SSA algorithms adjust space weather models based on observations of calibration satellites. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction. The uncontrolled nature of debris makes it particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by inverting observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters causing their motion. In addition, this research will produce more accurate predictions of the motion of debris objects. The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize a "cluster" of debris objects, objects within relatively close proximity of each other, to sense their local environment. We focus on deriving parameters of an atmospheric density model to more precisely predict the drag force on LEO objects. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation; the prior ensemble to the posterior ensemble is transformed during the measurement update in a manner that does not require inversion of large matrices. A prior ensemble is utilized to empirically determine the nonlinear relationship between measurements and density parameters. The filter estimates an extended state that includes position and velocity of the debris object, and atmospheric density parameters. The density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth. This research focuses on LEO object motion, but it can also be extended to additional orbital regimes for observation and refinement of magnetic field and solar radiation models. An observability analysis of the proposed approach is presented in terms of the measurement cadence necessary to estimate the local space environment.

Local ensemble transform Kalman filter for ionospheric data assimilation: Observation influence analysis during a geomagnetic storm event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durazo, Juan A.; Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex

2017-09-01

We propose a targeted observation strategy, based on the influence matrix diagnostic, that optimally selects where additional observations may be placed to improve ionospheric forecasts. This strategy is applied in data assimilation observing system experiments, where synthetic electron density vertical profiles, which represent those of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate/Formosa satellite 3, are assimilated into the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter during the 26 September 2011 geomagnetic storm. During each analysis step, the observation vector is augmented with five synthetic vertical profiles optimally placed to target electron density errors, using our targeted observation strategy. Forecast improvement due to assimilation of augmented vertical profiles is measured with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of analyzed electron density, averaged over 600 km regions centered around the augmented vertical profile locations. Assimilating vertical profiles with targeted locations yields about 60%-80% reduction in electron density RMSE, compared to a 15% average reduction when assimilating randomly placed vertical profiles. Assimilating vertical profiles whose locations target the zonal component of neutral winds (Un) yields on average a 25% RMSE reduction in Un estimates, compared to a 2% average improvement obtained with randomly placed vertical profiles. These results demonstrate that our targeted strategy can improve data assimilation efforts during extreme events by detecting regions where additional observations would provide the largest benefit to the forecast.

Ocean state and uncertainty forecasts using HYCOM with Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Mozheng; Hogan, Pat; Rowley, Clark; Smedstad, Ole-Martin; Wallcraft, Alan; Penny, Steve

2017-04-01

An ensemble forecast system based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology has been developed for ocean state and uncertainty forecasts. One of the advantages is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates the operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is supplied with the ensemble, thus it avoids the difficulty of developing tangent linear and adjoint models for 4D-VAR from the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate in HYCOM. Another advantage is that the ensemble system provides the valuable uncertainty estimate corresponding to every state forecast from HYCOM. Uncertainty forecasts have been proven to be critical for the downstream users and managers to make more scientifically sound decisions in numerical prediction community. In addition, ensemble mean is generally more accurate and skilful than the single traditional deterministic forecast with the same resolution. We will introduce the ensemble system design and setup, present some results from 30-member ensemble experiment, and discuss scientific, technical and computational issues and challenges, such as covariance localization, inflation, model related uncertainties and sensitivity to the ensemble size.

Minimalist ensemble algorithms for genome-wide protein localization prediction.

PubMed

Lin, Jhih-Rong; Mondal, Ananda Mohan; Liu, Rong; Hu, Jianjun

2012-07-03

Computational prediction of protein subcellular localization can greatly help to elucidate its functions. Despite the existence of dozens of protein localization prediction algorithms, the prediction accuracy and coverage are still low. Several ensemble algorithms have been proposed to improve the prediction performance, which usually include as many as 10 or more individual localization algorithms. However, their performance is still limited by the running complexity and redundancy among individual prediction algorithms. This paper proposed a novel method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms for practical genome-wide protein subcellular localization prediction. The algorithm is based on combining a feature selection based filter and a logistic regression classifier. Using a novel concept of contribution scores, we analyzed issues of algorithm redundancy, consensus mistakes, and algorithm complementarity in designing ensemble algorithms. We applied the proposed minimalist logistic regression (LR) ensemble algorithm to two genome-wide datasets of Yeast and Human and compared its performance with current ensemble algorithms. Experimental results showed that the minimalist ensemble algorithm can achieve high prediction accuracy with only 1/3 to 1/2 of individual predictors of current ensemble algorithms, which greatly reduces computational complexity and running time. It was found that the high performance ensemble algorithms are usually composed of the predictors that together cover most of available features. Compared to the best individual predictor, our ensemble algorithm improved the prediction accuracy from AUC score of 0.558 to 0.707 for the Yeast dataset and from 0.628 to 0.646 for the Human dataset. Compared with popular weighted voting based ensemble algorithms, our classifier-based ensemble algorithms achieved much better performance without suffering from inclusion of too many individual predictors. We proposed a method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms using feature selection and classifiers. The proposed minimalist ensemble algorithm based on logistic regression can achieve equal or better prediction performance while using only half or one-third of individual predictors compared to other ensemble algorithms. The results also suggested that meta-predictors that take advantage of a variety of features by combining individual predictors tend to achieve the best performance. The LR ensemble server and related benchmark datasets are available at http://mleg.cse.sc.edu/LRensemble/cgi-bin/predict.cgi.

Minimalist ensemble algorithms for genome-wide protein localization prediction

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Computational prediction of protein subcellular localization can greatly help to elucidate its functions. Despite the existence of dozens of protein localization prediction algorithms, the prediction accuracy and coverage are still low. Several ensemble algorithms have been proposed to improve the prediction performance, which usually include as many as 10 or more individual localization algorithms. However, their performance is still limited by the running complexity and redundancy among individual prediction algorithms. Results This paper proposed a novel method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms for practical genome-wide protein subcellular localization prediction. The algorithm is based on combining a feature selection based filter and a logistic regression classifier. Using a novel concept of contribution scores, we analyzed issues of algorithm redundancy, consensus mistakes, and algorithm complementarity in designing ensemble algorithms. We applied the proposed minimalist logistic regression (LR) ensemble algorithm to two genome-wide datasets of Yeast and Human and compared its performance with current ensemble algorithms. Experimental results showed that the minimalist ensemble algorithm can achieve high prediction accuracy with only 1/3 to 1/2 of individual predictors of current ensemble algorithms, which greatly reduces computational complexity and running time. It was found that the high performance ensemble algorithms are usually composed of the predictors that together cover most of available features. Compared to the best individual predictor, our ensemble algorithm improved the prediction accuracy from AUC score of 0.558 to 0.707 for the Yeast dataset and from 0.628 to 0.646 for the Human dataset. Compared with popular weighted voting based ensemble algorithms, our classifier-based ensemble algorithms achieved much better performance without suffering from inclusion of too many individual predictors. Conclusions We proposed a method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms using feature selection and classifiers. The proposed minimalist ensemble algorithm based on logistic regression can achieve equal or better prediction performance while using only half or one-third of individual predictors compared to other ensemble algorithms. The results also suggested that meta-predictors that take advantage of a variety of features by combining individual predictors tend to achieve the best performance. The LR ensemble server and related benchmark datasets are available at http://mleg.cse.sc.edu/LRensemble/cgi-bin/predict.cgi. PMID:22759391

Ensemble-type numerical uncertainty information from single model integrations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rauser, Florian, E-mail: florian.rauser@mpimet.mpg.de; Marotzke, Jochem; Korn, Peter

2015-07-01

We suggest an algorithm that quantifies the discretization error of time-dependent physical quantities of interest (goals) for numerical models of geophysical fluid dynamics. The goal discretization error is estimated using a sum of weighted local discretization errors. The key feature of our algorithm is that these local discretization errors are interpreted as realizations of a random process. The random process is determined by the model and the flow state. From a class of local error random processes we select a suitable specific random process by integrating the model over a short time interval at different resolutions. The weights of themore » influences of the local discretization errors on the goal are modeled as goal sensitivities, which are calculated via automatic differentiation. The integration of the weighted realizations of local error random processes yields a posterior ensemble of goal approximations from a single run of the numerical model. From the posterior ensemble we derive the uncertainty information of the goal discretization error. This algorithm bypasses the requirement of detailed knowledge about the models discretization to generate numerical error estimates. The algorithm is evaluated for the spherical shallow-water equations. For two standard test cases we successfully estimate the error of regional potential energy, track its evolution, and compare it to standard ensemble techniques. The posterior ensemble shares linear-error-growth properties with ensembles of multiple model integrations when comparably perturbed. The posterior ensemble numerical error estimates are of comparable size as those of a stochastic physics ensemble.« less

4D Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation for the NCEP GFS: Outer Loops and Variable Transforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleist, D. T.; Ide, K.; Mahajan, R.; Thomas, C.

2014-12-01

The use of hybrid error covariance models has become quite popular for numerical weather prediction (NWP). One such method for incorporating localized covariances from an ensemble within the variational framework utilizes an augmented control variable (EnVar), and has been implemented in the operational NCEP data assimilation system (GSI). By taking the existing 3D EnVar algorithm in GSI and allowing for four-dimensional ensemble perturbations, coupled with the 4DVAR infrastructure already in place, a 4D EnVar capability has been developed. The 4D EnVar algorithm has a few attractive qualities relative to 4DVAR, including the lack of need for tangent-linear and adjoint model as well as reduced computational cost. Preliminary results using real observations have been encouraging, showing forecast improvements nearly as large as were found in moving from 3DVAR to hybrid 3D EnVar. 4D EnVar is the method of choice for the next generation assimilation system for use with the operational NCEP global model, the global forecast system (GFS). The use of an outer-loop has long been the method of choice for 4DVar data assimilation to help address nonlinearity. An outer loop involves the re-running of the (deterministic) background forecast from the updated initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation window, and proceeding with another inner loop minimization. Within 4D EnVar, a similar procedure can be adopted since the solver evaluates a 4D analysis increment throughout the window, consistent with the valid times of the 4D ensemble perturbations. In this procedure, the ensemble perturbations are kept fixed and centered about the updated background state. This is analogous to the quasi-outer loop idea developed for the EnKF. Here, we present results for both toy model and real NWP systems demonstrating the impact from incorporating outer loops to address nonlinearity within the 4D EnVar context. The appropriate amplitudes for observation and background error covariances in subsequent outer loops will be explored. Lastly, variable transformations on the ensemble perturbations will be utilized to help address issues of non-Gaussianity. This may be particularly important for variables that clearly have non-Gaussian error characteristics such as water vapor and cloud condensate.

Assessing the Predictability of Convection using Ensemble Data Assimilation of Simulated Radar Observations in an LETKF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Heiner; Craig, George

2014-05-01

This study uses the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to perform storm-scale Data Assimilation of simulated Doppler radar observations into the non-hydrostatic, convection-permitting COSMO model. In perfect model experiments (OSSEs), it is investigated how the limited predictability of convective storms affects precipitation forecasts. The study compares a fine analysis scheme with small RMS errors to a coarse scheme that allows for errors in position, shape and occurrence of storms in the ensemble. The coarse scheme uses superobservations, a coarser grid for analysis weights, a larger localization radius and larger observation error that allow a broadening of the Gaussian error statistics. Three hour forecasts of convective systems (with typical lifetimes exceeding 6 hours) from the detailed analyses of the fine scheme are found to be advantageous to those of the coarse scheme during the first 1-2 hours, with respect to the predicted storm positions. After 3 hours in the convective regime used here, the forecast quality of the two schemes appears indiscernible, judging by RMSE and verification methods for rain-fields and objects. It is concluded that, for operational assimilation systems, the analysis scheme might not necessarily need to be detailed to the grid scale of the model. Depending on the forecast lead time, and on the presence of orographic or synoptic forcing that enhance the predictability of storm occurrences, analyses from a coarser scheme might suffice.

Efficient data assimilation algorithm for bathymetry application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbanidehno, H.; Lee, J. H.; Farthing, M.; Hesser, T.; Kitanidis, P. K.; Darve, E. F.

2017-12-01

Information on the evolving state of the nearshore zone bathymetry is crucial to shoreline management, recreational safety, and naval operations. The high cost and complex logistics of using ship-based surveys for bathymetry estimation have encouraged the use of remote sensing techniques. Data assimilation methods combine the remote sensing data and nearshore hydrodynamic models to estimate the unknown bathymetry and the corresponding uncertainties. In particular, several recent efforts have combined Kalman Filter-based techniques such as ensembled-based Kalman filters with indirect video-based observations to address the bathymetry inversion problem. However, these methods often suffer from ensemble collapse and uncertainty underestimation. Here, the Compressed State Kalman Filter (CSKF) method is used to estimate the bathymetry based on observed wave celerity. In order to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the CSKF method, we consider twin tests with synthetic observations of wave celerity, while the bathymetry profiles are chosen based on surveys taken by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC. The first test case is a bathymetry estimation problem for a spatially smooth and temporally constant bathymetry profile. The second test case is a bathymetry estimation problem for a temporally evolving bathymetry from a smooth to a non-smooth profile. For both problems, we compare the results of CSKF with those obtained by the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which is a popular ensemble-based Kalman filter method.

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

2015-05-01

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Sensitivity to perturbations and quantum phase transitions.

PubMed

Wisniacki, D A; Roncaglia, A J

2013-05-01

The local density of states or its Fourier transform, usually called fidelity amplitude, are important measures of quantum irreversibility due to imperfect evolution. In this Rapid Communication we study both quantities in a paradigmatic many body system, the Dicke Hamiltonian, where a single-mode bosonic field interacts with an ensemble of N two-level atoms. This model exhibits a quantum phase transition in the thermodynamic limit, while for finite instances the system undergoes a transition from quasi-integrability to quantum chaotic. We show that the width of the local density of states clearly points out the imprints of the transition from integrability to chaos but no trace remains of the quantum phase transition. The connection with the decay of the fidelity amplitude is also established.

Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

Data Assimilation and Predictability Studies on Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Using the WRF-LETKF System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyoshi, T.; Kunii, M.

2011-12-01

Data assimilation and predictability studies on Tropical Cyclones with a particular focus on intensity forecasts are performed with the newly-developed Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) system with the WRF model. Taking advantage of intensive observations of the internationally collaborated T-PARC (THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign) project, we focus on Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) which intensified rapidly before making landfall to Taiwan. This study includes a number of data assimilation experiments, higher-resolution forecasts, and sensitivity analysis which quantifies impacts of observations on forecasts. This presentation includes latest achievements up to the time of the conference.

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

2015-12-01

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

2015-05-01

The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of predictand, possesses a Bayesian coherence property, constitutes a random sample of the predictand, and has an acceptable sampling error-which makes it suitable for rational decision making under uncertainty.

Muscle activation described with a differential equation model for large ensembles of locally coupled molecular motors.

PubMed

Walcott, Sam

2014-10-01

Molecular motors, by turning chemical energy into mechanical work, are responsible for active cellular processes. Often groups of these motors work together to perform their biological role. Motors in an ensemble are coupled and exhibit complex emergent behavior. Although large motor ensembles can be modeled with partial differential equations (PDEs) by assuming that molecules function independently of their neighbors, this assumption is violated when motors are coupled locally. It is therefore unclear how to describe the ensemble behavior of the locally coupled motors responsible for biological processes such as calcium-dependent skeletal muscle activation. Here we develop a theory to describe locally coupled motor ensembles and apply the theory to skeletal muscle activation. The central idea is that a muscle filament can be divided into two phases: an active and an inactive phase. Dynamic changes in the relative size of these phases are described by a set of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). As the dynamics of the active phase are described by PDEs, muscle activation is governed by a set of coupled ODEs and PDEs, building on previous PDE models. With comparison to Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the theory captures the behavior of locally coupled ensembles. The theory also plausibly describes and predicts muscle experiments from molecular to whole muscle scales, suggesting that a micro- to macroscale muscle model is within reach.

Signal enhancement based on complex curvelet transform and complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lieqian; Wang, Deying; Zhang, Yimeng; Zhou, Datong

2017-09-01

Signal enhancement is a necessary step in seismic data processing. In this paper we utilize the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and complex curvelet transform (CCT) methods to separate signal from random noise further to improve the signal to noise (S/N) ratio. Firstly, the original data with noise is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode function (IMF) profiles with the aid of CEEMD. Then the IMFs with noise are transformed into CCT domain. By choosing different thresholds which are based on the noise level difference of each IMF profile, the noise in original data can be suppressed. Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of the approach by simulated and field datasets.

A study of regional-scale aerosol assimilation using a Stretch-NICAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misawa, S.; Dai, T.; Schutgens, N.; Nakajima, T.

2013-12-01

Although aerosol is considered to be harmful to human health and it became a social issue, aerosol models and emission inventories include large uncertainties. In recent studies, data assimilation is applied to aerosol simulation to get more accurate aerosol field and emission inventory. Most of these studies, however, are carried out only on global scale, and there are only a few researches about regional scale aerosol assimilation. In this study, we have created and verified an aerosol assimilation system on regional scale, in hopes to reduce an error associated with the aerosol emission inventory. Our aerosol assimilation system has been developed using an atmospheric climate model, NICAM (Non-hydrostaric ICosahedral Atmospheric Model; Satoh et al., 2008) with a stretch grid system and coupled with an aerosol transport model, SPRINTARS (Takemura et al., 2000). Also, this assimilation system is based on local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). To validate this system, we used a simulated observational data by adding some artificial errors to the surface aerosol fields constructed by Stretch-NICAM-SPRINTARS. We also included a small perturbation in original emission inventory. This assimilation with modified observational data and emission inventory was performed in Kanto-plane region around Tokyo, Japan, and the result indicates the system reducing a relative error of aerosol concentration by 20%. Furthermore, we examined a sensitivity of the aerosol assimilation system by varying the number of total ensemble (5, 10 and 15 ensembles) and local patch (domain) size (radius of 50km, 100km and 200km), both of which are the tuning parameters in LETKF. The result of the assimilation with different ensemble number 5, 10 and 15 shows that the larger the number of ensemble is, the smaller the relative error become. This is consistent with ensemble Kalman filter theory and imply that this assimilation system works properly. Also we found that assimilation system does not work well in a case of 200km radius, while a domain of 50km radius is less efficient than when domain of 100km radius is used.Therefore, we expect that the optimized size lies somewhere between 50km to 200km. We will show a real analysis of real data from suspended particle matter (SPM) network in the Kanto-plane region.

The NRL relocatable ocean/acoustic ensemble forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowley, C.; Martin, P.; Cummings, J.; Jacobs, G.; Coelho, E.; Bishop, C.; Hong, X.; Peggion, G.; Fabre, J.

2009-04-01

A globally relocatable regional ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed to support rapid implementation of new regional forecast domains. The system is in operational use at the Naval Oceanographic Office for a growing number of regional and coastal implementations. The new system is the basis for an ocean acoustic ensemble forecast and adaptive sampling capability. We present an overview of the forecast system and the ocean ensemble and adaptive sampling methods. The forecast system consists of core ocean data analysis and forecast modules, software for domain configuration, surface and boundary condition forcing processing, and job control, and global databases for ocean climatology, bathymetry, tides, and river locations and transports. The analysis component is the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system, a 3D multivariate optimum interpolation system that produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, geopotential, and vector velocity using remotely-sensed SST, SSH, and sea ice concentration, plus in situ observations of temperature, salinity, and currents from ships, buoys, XBTs, CTDs, profiling floats, and autonomous gliders. The forecast component is the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). The system supports one-way nesting and multiple assimilation methods. The ensemble system uses the ensemble transform technique with error variance estimates from the NCODA analysis to represent initial condition error. Perturbed surface forcing or an atmospheric ensemble is used to represent errors in surface forcing. The ensemble transform Kalman filter is used to assess the impact of adaptive observations on future analysis and forecast uncertainty for both ocean and acoustic properties.

Real-time prediction of hand trajectory by ensembles of cortical neurons in primates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessberg, Johan; Stambaugh, Christopher R.; Kralik, Jerald D.; Beck, Pamela D.; Laubach, Mark; Chapin, John K.; Kim, Jung; Biggs, S. James; Srinivasan, Mandayam A.; Nicolelis, Miguel A. L.

2000-11-01

Signals derived from the rat motor cortex can be used for controlling one-dimensional movements of a robot arm. It remains unknown, however, whether real-time processing of cortical signals can be employed to reproduce, in a robotic device, the kind of complex arm movements used by primates to reach objects in space. Here we recorded the simultaneous activity of large populations of neurons, distributed in the premotor, primary motor and posterior parietal cortical areas, as non-human primates performed two distinct motor tasks. Accurate real-time predictions of one- and three-dimensional arm movement trajectories were obtained by applying both linear and nonlinear algorithms to cortical neuronal ensemble activity recorded from each animal. In addition, cortically derived signals were successfully used for real-time control of robotic devices, both locally and through the Internet. These results suggest that long-term control of complex prosthetic robot arm movements can be achieved by simple real-time transformations of neuronal population signals derived from multiple cortical areas in primates.

Ensemble control of Kondo screening in molecular adsorbates

DOE PAGES

Maughan, Bret; Zahl, Percy; Sutter, Peter; ...

2017-04-06

Switching the magnetic properties of organic semiconductors on a metal surface has thus far largely been limited to molecule-by-molecule tip-induced transformations in scanned probe experiments. Here we demonstrate with molecular resolution that collective control of activated Kondo screening can be achieved in thin-films of the organic semiconductor titanyl phthalocyanine on Cu(110) to obtain tunable concentrations of Kondo impurities. Using low-temperature scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy, we show that a thermally activated molecular distortion dramatically shifts surface–molecule coupling and enables ensemble-level control of Kondo screening in the interfacial spin system. This is accompanied by the formation of a temperature-dependent Abrikosov–Suhl–Kondo resonancemore » in the local density of states of the activated molecules. This enables coverage-dependent control over activation to the Kondo screening state. Finally, our study thus advances the versatility of molecular switching for Kondo physics and opens new avenues for scalable bottom-up tailoring of the electronic structure and magnetic texture of organic semiconductor interfaces at the nanoscale.« less

Stress-stress fluctuation formula for elastic constants in the NPT ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lips, Dominik; Maass, Philipp

2018-05-01

Several fluctuation formulas are available for calculating elastic constants from equilibrium correlation functions in computer simulations, but the ones available for simulations at constant pressure exhibit slow convergence properties and cannot be used for the determination of local elastic constants. To overcome these drawbacks, we derive a stress-stress fluctuation formula in the NPT ensemble based on known expressions in the NVT ensemble. We validate the formula in the NPT ensemble by calculating elastic constants for the simple nearest-neighbor Lennard-Jones crystal and by comparing the results with those obtained in the NVT ensemble. For both local and bulk elastic constants we find an excellent agreement between the simulated data in the two ensembles. To demonstrate the usefulness of the formula, we apply it to determine the elastic constants of a simulated lipid bilayer.

Ensemble perception of color in autistic adults.

PubMed

Maule, John; Stanworth, Kirstie; Pellicano, Elizabeth; Franklin, Anna

2017-05-01

Dominant accounts of visual processing in autism posit that autistic individuals have an enhanced access to details of scenes [e.g., weak central coherence] which is reflected in a general bias toward local processing. Furthermore, the attenuated priors account of autism predicts that the updating and use of summary representations is reduced in autism. Ensemble perception describes the extraction of global summary statistics of a visual feature from a heterogeneous set (e.g., of faces, sizes, colors), often in the absence of local item representation. The present study investigated ensemble perception in autistic adults using a rapidly presented (500 msec) ensemble of four, eight, or sixteen elements representing four different colors. We predicted that autistic individuals would be less accurate when averaging the ensembles, but more accurate in recognizing individual ensemble colors. The results were consistent with the predictions. Averaging was impaired in autism, but only when ensembles contained four elements. Ensembles of eight or sixteen elements were averaged equally accurately across groups. The autistic group also showed a corresponding advantage in rejecting colors that were not originally seen in the ensemble. The results demonstrate the local processing bias in autism, but also suggest that the global perceptual averaging mechanism may be compromised under some conditions. The theoretical implications of the findings and future avenues for research on summary statistics in autism are discussed. Autism Res 2017, 10: 839-851. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mixture models for protein structure ensembles.

PubMed

Hirsch, Michael; Habeck, Michael

2008-10-01

Protein structure ensembles provide important insight into the dynamics and function of a protein and contain information that is not captured with a single static structure. However, it is not clear a priori to what extent the variability within an ensemble is caused by internal structural changes. Additional variability results from overall translations and rotations of the molecule. And most experimental data do not provide information to relate the structures to a common reference frame. To report meaningful values of intrinsic dynamics, structural precision, conformational entropy, etc., it is therefore important to disentangle local from global conformational heterogeneity. We consider the task of disentangling local from global heterogeneity as an inference problem. We use probabilistic methods to infer from the protein ensemble missing information on reference frames and stable conformational sub-states. To this end, we model a protein ensemble as a mixture of Gaussian probability distributions of either entire conformations or structural segments. We learn these models from a protein ensemble using the expectation-maximization algorithm. Our first model can be used to find multiple conformers in a structure ensemble. The second model partitions the protein chain into locally stable structural segments or core elements and less structured regions typically found in loops. Both models are simple to implement and contain only a single free parameter: the number of conformers or structural segments. Our models can be used to analyse experimental ensembles, molecular dynamics trajectories and conformational change in proteins. The Python source code for protein ensemble analysis is available from the authors upon request.

Ensemble perception of color in autistic adults

PubMed Central

Stanworth, Kirstie; Pellicano, Elizabeth; Franklin, Anna

2016-01-01

Dominant accounts of visual processing in autism posit that autistic individuals have an enhanced access to details of scenes [e.g., weak central coherence] which is reflected in a general bias toward local processing. Furthermore, the attenuated priors account of autism predicts that the updating and use of summary representations is reduced in autism. Ensemble perception describes the extraction of global summary statistics of a visual feature from a heterogeneous set (e.g., of faces, sizes, colors), often in the absence of local item representation. The present study investigated ensemble perception in autistic adults using a rapidly presented (500 msec) ensemble of four, eight, or sixteen elements representing four different colors. We predicted that autistic individuals would be less accurate when averaging the ensembles, but more accurate in recognizing individual ensemble colors. The results were consistent with the predictions. Averaging was impaired in autism, but only when ensembles contained four elements. Ensembles of eight or sixteen elements were averaged equally accurately across groups. The autistic group also showed a corresponding advantage in rejecting colors that were not originally seen in the ensemble. The results demonstrate the local processing bias in autism, but also suggest that the global perceptual averaging mechanism may be compromised under some conditions. The theoretical implications of the findings and future avenues for research on summary statistics in autism are discussed. Autism Res 2017, 10: 839–851. © 2016 The Authors Autism Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Autism Research PMID:27874263

Simultaneous assimilation of AIRS Xco2 and meteorological observations in a carbon climate model with an ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Junjie; Fung, Inez; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kang, Ji-Sun; Olsen, Edward T.; Chen, Luke

2012-03-01

This study is our first step toward the generation of 6 hourly 3-D CO2 fields that can be used to validate CO2 forecast models by combining CO2 observations from multiple sources using ensemble Kalman filtering. We discuss a procedure to assimilate Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2 (Xco2) in conjunction with meteorological observations with the coupled Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF)-Community Atmospheric Model version 3.5. We examine the impact of assimilating AIRS Xco2 observations on CO2 fields by comparing the results from the AIRS-run, which assimilates both AIRS Xco2 and meteorological observations, to those from the meteor-run, which only assimilates meteorological observations. We find that assimilating AIRS Xco2 results in a surface CO2 seasonal cycle and the N-S surface gradient closer to the observations. When taking account of the CO2 uncertainty estimation from the LETKF, the CO2 analysis brackets the observed seasonal cycle. Verification against independent aircraft observations shows that assimilating AIRS Xco2 improves the accuracy of the CO2 vertical profiles by about 0.5-2 ppm depending on location and altitude. The results show that the CO2 analysis ensemble spread at AIRS Xco2 space is between 0.5 and 2 ppm, and the CO2 analysis ensemble spread around the peak level of the averaging kernels is between 1 and 2 ppm. This uncertainty estimation is consistent with the magnitude of the CO2 analysis error verified against AIRS Xco2 observations and the independent aircraft CO2 vertical profiles.

Predicting Flow Reversals in a Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulated Thermosyphon Using Data Assimilation.

PubMed

Reagan, Andrew J; Dubief, Yves; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

2016-01-01

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics analogous to the Earth's weather. As is the case for state-of-the-art weather models, we only observe the statistics over a small region of state space, making prediction difficult. To overcome this challenge, data assimilation (DA) methods, and specifically ensemble methods, use the computational model itself to estimate the uncertainty of the model to optimally combine these observations into an initial condition for predicting the future state. Here, we build and verify four distinct DA methods, and then, we perform a twin model experiment with the computational fluid dynamics simulation of the loop using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) to assimilate observations and predict flow reversals. We show that using adaptively shaped localized covariance outperforms static localized covariance with the ETKF, and allows for the use of less observations in predicting flow reversals. We also show that a Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) of the temperature and velocity fields recovers the low dimensional system underlying reversals, finding specific modes which together are predictive of reversal direction.

Predicting Flow Reversals in a Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulated Thermosyphon Using Data Assimilation

PubMed Central

Reagan, Andrew J.; Dubief, Yves; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M.

2016-01-01

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics analogous to the Earth’s weather. As is the case for state-of-the-art weather models, we only observe the statistics over a small region of state space, making prediction difficult. To overcome this challenge, data assimilation (DA) methods, and specifically ensemble methods, use the computational model itself to estimate the uncertainty of the model to optimally combine these observations into an initial condition for predicting the future state. Here, we build and verify four distinct DA methods, and then, we perform a twin model experiment with the computational fluid dynamics simulation of the loop using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) to assimilate observations and predict flow reversals. We show that using adaptively shaped localized covariance outperforms static localized covariance with the ETKF, and allows for the use of less observations in predicting flow reversals. We also show that a Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) of the temperature and velocity fields recovers the low dimensional system underlying reversals, finding specific modes which together are predictive of reversal direction. PMID:26849061

Satellite Data Assimilation within KIAPS-LETKF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Y.; Lee, S., Sr.; Cho, K.

2016-12-01

Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) has been developing an ensemble data assimilation system using four-dimensional local ensemble transform kalman filter (LETKF; Hunt et al., 2007) within KIAPS Integrated Model (KIM), referred to as "KIAPS-LETKF". KIAPS-LETKF system was successfully evaluated with various Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) with NCAR Community Atmospheric Model - Spectral Element (Kang et al., 2013), which has fully unstructured quadrilateral meshes based on the cubed-sphere grid as the same grid system of KIM. Recently, assimilation of real observations has been conducted within the KIAPS-LETKF system with four-dimensional covariance functions over the 6-hr assimilation window. Then, conventional (e.g., sonde, aircraft, and surface) and satellite (e.g., AMSU-A, IASI, GPS-RO, and AMV) observations have been provided by the KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP). Wind speed prediction was found most beneficial due to ingestion of AMV and for the temperature prediction the improvement in assimilation is mostly due to ingestion of AMSU-A and IASI. However, some degradation in the simulation of the GPS-RO is presented in the upper stratosphere, even though GPS-RO leads positive impacts on the analysis and forecasts. We plan to test the bias correction method and several vertical localization strategies for radiance observations to improve analysis and forecast impacts.

Rapid sampling of local minima in protein energy surface and effective reduction through a multi-objective filter

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Many problems in protein modeling require obtaining a discrete representation of the protein conformational space as an ensemble of conformations. In ab-initio structure prediction, in particular, where the goal is to predict the native structure of a protein chain given its amino-acid sequence, the ensemble needs to satisfy energetic constraints. Given the thermodynamic hypothesis, an effective ensemble contains low-energy conformations which are similar to the native structure. The high-dimensionality of the conformational space and the ruggedness of the underlying energy surface currently make it very difficult to obtain such an ensemble. Recent studies have proposed that Basin Hopping is a promising probabilistic search framework to obtain a discrete representation of the protein energy surface in terms of local minima. Basin Hopping performs a series of structural perturbations followed by energy minimizations with the goal of hopping between nearby energy minima. This approach has been shown to be effective in obtaining conformations near the native structure for small systems. Recent work by us has extended this framework to larger systems through employment of the molecular fragment replacement technique, resulting in rapid sampling of large ensembles. Methods This paper investigates the algorithmic components in Basin Hopping to both understand and control their effect on the sampling of near-native minima. Realizing that such an ensemble is reduced before further refinement in full ab-initio protocols, we take an additional step and analyze the quality of the ensemble retained by ensemble reduction techniques. We propose a novel multi-objective technique based on the Pareto front to filter the ensemble of sampled local minima. Results and conclusions We show that controlling the magnitude of the perturbation allows directly controlling the distance between consecutively-sampled local minima and, in turn, steering the exploration towards conformations near the native structure. For the minimization step, we show that the addition of Metropolis Monte Carlo-based minimization is no more effective than a simple greedy search. Finally, we show that the size of the ensemble of sampled local minima can be effectively and efficiently reduced by a multi-objective filter to obtain a simpler representation of the probed energy surface. PMID:24564970

Ensemble density variational methods with self- and ghost-interaction-corrected functionals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pastorczak, Ewa; Pernal, Katarzyna, E-mail: pernalk@gmail.com

2014-05-14

Ensemble density functional theory (DFT) offers a way of predicting excited-states energies of atomic and molecular systems without referring to a density response function. Despite a significant theoretical work, practical applications of the proposed approximations have been scarce and they do not allow for a fair judgement of the potential usefulness of ensemble DFT with available functionals. In the paper, we investigate two forms of ensemble density functionals formulated within ensemble DFT framework: the Gross, Oliveira, and Kohn (GOK) functional proposed by Gross et al. [Phys. Rev. A 37, 2809 (1988)] alongside the orbital-dependent eDFT form of the functional introducedmore » by Nagy [J. Phys. B 34, 2363 (2001)] (the acronym eDFT proposed in analogy to eHF – ensemble Hartree-Fock method). Local and semi-local ground-state density functionals are employed in both approaches. Approximate ensemble density functionals contain not only spurious self-interaction but also the so-called ghost-interaction which has no counterpart in the ground-state DFT. We propose how to correct the GOK functional for both kinds of interactions in approximations that go beyond the exact-exchange functional. Numerical applications lead to a conclusion that functionals free of the ghost-interaction by construction, i.e., eDFT, yield much more reliable results than approximate self- and ghost-interaction-corrected GOK functional. Additionally, local density functional corrected for self-interaction employed in the eDFT framework yields excitations energies of the accuracy comparable to that of the uncorrected semi-local eDFT functional.« less

Laser transit anemometer software development program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbiss, John B.

1989-01-01

Algorithms were developed for the extraction of two components of mean velocity, standard deviation, and the associated correlation coefficient from laser transit anemometry (LTA) data ensembles. The solution method is based on an assumed two-dimensional Gaussian probability density function (PDF) model of the flow field under investigation. The procedure consists of transforming the data ensembles from the data acquisition domain (consisting of time and angle information) to the velocity space domain (consisting of velocity component information). The mean velocity results are obtained from the data ensemble centroid. Through a least squares fitting of the transformed data to an ellipse representing the intersection of a plane with the PDF, the standard deviations and correlation coefficient are obtained. A data set simulation method is presented to test the data reduction process. Results of using the simulation system with a limited test matrix of input values is also given.

Fidelity under isospectral perturbations: a random matrix study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyvraz, F.; García, A.; Kohler, H.; Seligman, T. H.

2013-07-01

The set of Hamiltonians generated by all unitary transformations from a single Hamiltonian is the largest set of isospectral Hamiltonians we can form. Taking advantage of the fact that the unitary group can be generated from Hermitian matrices we can take the ones generated by the Gaussian unitary ensemble with a small parameter as small perturbations. Similarly, the transformations generated by Hermitian antisymmetric matrices from orthogonal matrices form isospectral transformations among symmetric matrices. Based on this concept we can obtain the fidelity decay of a system that decays under a random isospectral perturbation with well-defined properties regarding time-reversal invariance. If we choose the Hamiltonian itself also from a classical random matrix ensemble, then we obtain solutions in terms of form factors in the limit of large matrices.

Biased Metropolis Sampling for Rugged Free Energy Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Bernd A.

2003-11-01

Metropolis simulations of all-atom models of peptides (i.e. small proteins) are considered. Inspired by the funnel picture of Bryngelson and Wolyness, a transformation of the updating probabilities of the dihedral angles is defined, which uses probability densities from a higher temperature to improve the algorithmic performance at a lower temperature. The method is suitable for canonical as well as for generalized ensemble simulations. A simple approximation to the full transformation is tested at room temperature for Met-Enkephalin in vacuum. Integrated autocorrelation times are found to be reduced by factors close to two and a similar improvement due to generalized ensemble methods enters multiplicatively.

Short-Circuit Fault Detection and Classification Using Empirical Wavelet Transform and Local Energy for Electric Transmission Line.

PubMed

Huang, Nantian; Qi, Jiajin; Li, Fuqing; Yang, Dongfeng; Cai, Guowei; Huang, Guilin; Zheng, Jian; Li, Zhenxin

2017-09-16

In order to improve the classification accuracy of recognizing short-circuit faults in electric transmission lines, a novel detection and diagnosis method based on empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and local energy (LE) is proposed. First, EWT is used to deal with the original short-circuit fault signals from photoelectric voltage transformers, before the amplitude modulated-frequency modulated (AM-FM) mode with a compactly supported Fourier spectrum is extracted. Subsequently, the fault occurrence time is detected according to the modulus maxima of intrinsic mode function (IMF₂) from three-phase voltage signals processed by EWT. After this process, the feature vectors are constructed by calculating the LE of the fundamental frequency based on the three-phase voltage signals of one period after the fault occurred. Finally, the classifier based on support vector machine (SVM) which was constructed with the LE feature vectors is used to classify 10 types of short-circuit fault signals. Compared with complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and improved CEEMDAN methods, the new method using EWT has a better ability to present the frequency in time. The difference in the characteristics of the energy distribution in the time domain between different types of short-circuit faults can be presented by the feature vectors of LE. Together, simulation and real signals experiment demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the new approach.

Short-Circuit Fault Detection and Classification Using Empirical Wavelet Transform and Local Energy for Electric Transmission Line

PubMed Central

Huang, Nantian; Qi, Jiajin; Li, Fuqing; Yang, Dongfeng; Cai, Guowei; Huang, Guilin; Zheng, Jian; Li, Zhenxin

2017-01-01

In order to improve the classification accuracy of recognizing short-circuit faults in electric transmission lines, a novel detection and diagnosis method based on empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and local energy (LE) is proposed. First, EWT is used to deal with the original short-circuit fault signals from photoelectric voltage transformers, before the amplitude modulated-frequency modulated (AM-FM) mode with a compactly supported Fourier spectrum is extracted. Subsequently, the fault occurrence time is detected according to the modulus maxima of intrinsic mode function (IMF2) from three-phase voltage signals processed by EWT. After this process, the feature vectors are constructed by calculating the LE of the fundamental frequency based on the three-phase voltage signals of one period after the fault occurred. Finally, the classifier based on support vector machine (SVM) which was constructed with the LE feature vectors is used to classify 10 types of short-circuit fault signals. Compared with complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and improved CEEMDAN methods, the new method using EWT has a better ability to present the frequency in time. The difference in the characteristics of the energy distribution in the time domain between different types of short-circuit faults can be presented by the feature vectors of LE. Together, simulation and real signals experiment demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the new approach. PMID:28926953

Intelligent Ensemble Forecasting System of Stock Market Fluctuations Based on Symetric and Asymetric Wavelet Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim; Boukadoum, Mounir

2015-08-01

We present a new ensemble system for stock market returns prediction where continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is used to analyze return series and backpropagation neural networks (BPNNs) for processing CWT-based coefficients, determining the optimal ensemble weights, and providing final forecasts. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used for finding optimal weights and biases for each BPNN. To capture symmetry/asymmetry in the underlying data, three wavelet functions with different shapes are adopted. The proposed ensemble system was tested on three Asian stock markets: The Hang Seng, KOSPI, and Taiwan stock market data. Three statistical metrics were used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy; including, mean of absolute errors (MAE), root mean of squared errors (RMSE), and mean of absolute deviations (MADs). Experimental results showed that our proposed ensemble system outperformed the individual CWT-ANN models each with different wavelet function. In addition, the proposed ensemble system outperformed the conventional autoregressive moving average process. As a result, the proposed ensemble system is suitable to capture symmetry/asymmetry in financial data fluctuations for better prediction accuracy.

Transition-Metal Chalcogenide/Graphene Ensembles for Light-Induced Energy Applications.

PubMed

Kagkoura, Antonia; Skaltsas, Theodosis; Tagmatarchis, Nikos

2017-09-21

Recently, nanomaterials that harvest solar energy and convert it to other forms of energy are of great interest. In this context, transition metal chalcogenides (TMCs) have recently been in the spotlight due to their optoelectronic properties that render them potential candidates mainly in energy conversion applications. Integration of TMCs onto a strong electron-accepting material, such as graphene, yielding novel TMC/graphene ensembles is of high significance, since photoinduced charge-transfer phenomena, leading to intra-ensemble charge separation, may occur. In this review, we highlight the utility of TMC/graphene ensembles, with a specific focus on latest trends in applications, while their synthetic routes are also discussed. In fact, TMC/graphene ensembles are photocatalytically active and superior as compared to intact TMCs analogues, when examined toward photocatalytic H 2 evolution, dye degradation and redox transformations of organic compounds. Moreover, TMC/graphene ensembles have shown excellent prospect when employed in photovoltaics and biosensing applications. Finally, the future prospects of such materials are outlined. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Performance Analysis of Local Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Xin T.

2018-03-01

Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an important data assimilation method for high-dimensional geophysical systems. Efficient implementation of EnKF in practice often involves the localization technique, which updates each component using only information within a local radius. This paper rigorously analyzes the local EnKF (LEnKF) for linear systems and shows that the filter error can be dominated by the ensemble covariance, as long as (1) the sample size exceeds the logarithmic of state dimension and a constant that depends only on the local radius; (2) the forecast covariance matrix admits a stable localized structure. In particular, this indicates that with small system and observation noises, the filter error will be accurate in long time even if the initialization is not. The analysis also reveals an intrinsic inconsistency caused by the localization technique, and a stable localized structure is necessary to control this inconsistency. While this structure is usually taken for granted for the operation of LEnKF, it can also be rigorously proved for linear systems with sparse local observations and weak local interactions. These theoretical results are also validated by numerical implementation of LEnKF on a simple stochastic turbulence in two dynamical regimes.

Complete ensemble local mean decomposition with adaptive noise and its application to fault diagnosis for rolling bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei; Liu, Zhiwen; Miao, Qiang; Zhang, Xin

2018-06-01

Mode mixing resulting from intermittent signals is an annoying problem associated with the local mean decomposition (LMD) method. Based on noise-assisted approach, ensemble local mean decomposition (ELMD) method alleviates the mode mixing issue of LMD to some degree. However, the product functions (PFs) produced by ELMD often contain considerable residual noise, and thus a relatively large number of ensemble trials are required to eliminate the residual noise. Furthermore, since different realizations of Gaussian white noise are added to the original signal, different trials may generate different number of PFs, making it difficult to take ensemble mean. In this paper, a novel method is proposed called complete ensemble local mean decomposition with adaptive noise (CELMDAN) to solve these two problems. The method adds a particular and adaptive noise at every decomposition stage for each trial. Moreover, a unique residue is obtained after separating each PF, and the obtained residue is used as input for the next stage. Two simulated signals are analyzed to illustrate the advantages of CELMDAN in comparison to ELMD and CEEMDAN. To further demonstrate the efficiency of CELMDAN, the method is applied to diagnose faults for rolling bearings in an experimental case and an engineering case. The diagnosis results indicate that CELMDAN can extract more fault characteristic information with less interference than ELMD.

Toward an Accurate Theoretical Framework for Describing Ensembles for Proteins under Strongly Denaturing Conditions

PubMed Central

Tran, Hoang T.; Pappu, Rohit V.

2006-01-01

Our focus is on an appropriate theoretical framework for describing highly denatured proteins. In high concentrations of denaturants, proteins behave like polymers in a good solvent and ensembles for denatured proteins can be modeled by ignoring all interactions except excluded volume (EV) effects. To assay conformational preferences of highly denatured proteins, we quantify a variety of properties for EV-limit ensembles of 23 two-state proteins. We find that modeled denatured proteins can be best described as follows. Average shapes are consistent with prolate ellipsoids. Ensembles are characterized by large correlated fluctuations. Sequence-specific conformational preferences are restricted to local length scales that span five to nine residues. Beyond local length scales, chain properties follow well-defined power laws that are expected for generic polymers in the EV limit. The average available volume is filled inefficiently, and cavities of all sizes are found within the interiors of denatured proteins. All properties characterized from simulated ensembles match predictions from rigorous field theories. We use our results to resolve between conflicting proposals for structure in ensembles for highly denatured states. PMID:16766618

Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Dan

1990-01-01

Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

Information flow in an atmospheric model and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Young-noh

2011-12-01

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background state estimate with new observations, and the cycle repeats. In an ensemble Kalman filter, the probability distribution of the state estimate is represented by an ensemble of sample states, and the covariance matrix is calculated using the ensemble of sample states. We perform numerical experiments on toy atmospheric models introduced by Lorenz in 2005 to study the information flow in an atmospheric model in conjunction with ensemble Kalman filtering for data assimilation. This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part of this dissertation is about the propagation of information and the use of localization in ensemble Kalman filtering. If we can perform data assimilation locally by considering the observations and the state variables only near each grid point, then we can reduce the number of ensemble members necessary to cover the probability distribution of the state estimate, reducing the computational cost for the data assimilation and the model integration. Several localized versions of the ensemble Kalman filter have been proposed. Although tests applying such schemes have proven them to be extremely promising, a full basic understanding of the rationale and limitations of localization is currently lacking. We address these issues and elucidate the role played by chaotic wave dynamics in the propagation of information and the resulting impact on forecasts. The second part of this dissertation is about ensemble regional data assimilation using joint states. Assuming that we have a global model and a regional model of higher accuracy defined in a subregion inside the global region, we propose a data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model simultaneously, considering forecast information from both models. We show that our new data assimilation scheme produces better results both in the subregion and the global region than the data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model separately.

Using ensemble models to identify and apportion heavy metal pollution sources in agricultural soils on a local scale.

PubMed

Wang, Qi; Xie, Zhiyi; Li, Fangbai

2015-11-01

This study aims to identify and apportion multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution from natural and anthropogenic inputs using ensemble models that include stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and random forest (RF) in agricultural soils on the local scale. The heavy metal pollution sources were quantitatively assessed, and the results illustrated the suitability of the ensemble models for the assessment of multi-source and multi-phase heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils on the local scale. The results of SGB and RF consistently demonstrated that anthropogenic sources contributed the most to the concentrations of Pb and Cd in agricultural soils in the study region and that SGB performed better than RF. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Local Equivalence Between the Canonical and the Microcanonical Ensembles for Quantum Spin Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tasaki, Hal

2018-06-01

We study a quantum spin system on the d-dimensional hypercubic lattice Λ with N=L^d sites with periodic boundary conditions. We take an arbitrary translation invariant short-ranged Hamiltonian. For this system, we consider both the canonical ensemble with inverse temperature β _0 and the microcanonical ensemble with the corresponding energy U_N(β _0) . For an arbitrary self-adjoint operator \\hat{A} whose support is contained in a hypercubic block B inside Λ , we prove that the expectation values of \\hat{A} with respect to these two ensembles are close to each other for large N provided that β _0 is sufficiently small and the number of sites in B is o(N^{1/2}) . This establishes the equivalence of ensembles on the level of local states in a large but finite system. The result is essentially that of Brandao and Cramer (here restricted to the case of the canonical and the microcanonical ensembles), but we prove improved estimates in an elementary manner. We also review and prove standard results on the thermodynamic limits of thermodynamic functions and the equivalence of ensembles in terms of thermodynamic functions. The present paper assumes only elementary knowledge on quantum statistical mechanics and quantum spin systems.

Eye pupil detection system using an ensemble of regression forest and fast radial symmetry transform with a near infrared camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Mira; Nam, Jae-Yeal; Ko, Byoung Chul

2017-09-01

In this paper, we focus on pupil center detection in various video sequences that include head poses and changes in illumination. To detect the pupil center, we first find four eye landmarks in each eye by using cascade local regression based on a regression forest. Based on the rough location of the pupil, a fast radial symmetric transform is applied using the previously found pupil location to rearrange the fine pupil center. As the final step, the pupil displacement is estimated between the previous frame and the current frame to maintain the level of accuracy against a false locating result occurring in a particular frame. We generated a new face dataset, called Keimyung University pupil detection (KMUPD), with infrared camera. The proposed method was successfully applied to the KMUPD dataset, and the results indicate that its pupil center detection capability is better than that of other methods and with a shorter processing time.

Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart

2017-04-01

Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given the applied model chain and forcing scenario. However, the analysis also shows how limited the information in single ensemble members is on the local scale forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming when the forced response has emerged from natural variability. Analysis and application of multi-model ensembles like EURO-CORDEX should go hand-in-hand with single model ensembles, like the one presented here, to be able to correctly interpret the fine-scale information in terms of a forced signal and random noise due to natural variability.

Cell-cell bioelectrical interactions and local heterogeneities in genetic networks: a model for the stabilization of single-cell states and multicellular oscillations.

PubMed

Cervera, Javier; Manzanares, José A; Mafe, Salvador

2018-04-04

Genetic networks operate in the presence of local heterogeneities in single-cell transcription and translation rates. Bioelectrical networks and spatio-temporal maps of cell electric potentials can influence multicellular ensembles. Could cell-cell bioelectrical interactions mediated by intercellular gap junctions contribute to the stabilization of multicellular states against local genetic heterogeneities? We theoretically analyze this question on the basis of two well-established experimental facts: (i) the membrane potential is a reliable read-out of the single-cell electrical state and (ii) when the cells are coupled together, their individual cell potentials can be influenced by ensemble-averaged electrical potentials. We propose a minimal biophysical model for the coupling between genetic and bioelectrical networks that associates the local changes occurring in the transcription and translation rates of an ion channel protein with abnormally low (depolarized) cell potentials. We then analyze the conditions under which the depolarization of a small region (patch) in a multicellular ensemble can be reverted by its bioelectrical coupling with the (normally polarized) neighboring cells. We show also that the coupling between genetic and bioelectric networks of non-excitable cells, modulated by average electric potentials at the multicellular ensemble level, can produce oscillatory phenomena. The simulations show the importance of single-cell potentials characteristic of polarized and depolarized states, the relative sizes of the abnormally polarized patch and the rest of the normally polarized ensemble, and intercellular coupling.

Nonuniform fluids in the grand canonical ensemble

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Percus, J.K.

1982-01-01

Nonuniform simple classical fluids are considered quite generally. The grand canonical ensemble is particularly suitable, conceptually, in the leading approximation of local thermodynamics, which figuratively divides the system into approximately uniform spatial subsystems. The procedure is reviewed by which this approach is systematically corrected for slowly varying density profiles, and a model is suggested that carries the correction into the domain of local fluctuations. The latter is assessed for substrate bounded fluids, as well as for two-phase interfaces. The peculiarities of the grand ensemble in a two-phase region stem from the inherent very large number fluctuations. A primitive model showsmore » how these are quenched in the canonical ensemble. This is taken advantage of by applying the Kac-Siegert representation of the van der Waals decomposition with petit canonical corrections, to the two-phase regime.« less

An optimized ensemble local mean decomposition method for fault detection of mechanical components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Li, Zhixiong; Hu, Chao; Chen, Shuai; Wang, Jianguo; Zhang, Xiaogang

2017-03-01

Mechanical transmission systems have been widely adopted in most of industrial applications, and issues related to the maintenance of these systems have attracted considerable attention in the past few decades. The recently developed ensemble local mean decomposition (ELMD) method shows satisfactory performance in fault detection of mechanical components for preventing catastrophic failures and reducing maintenance costs. However, the performance of ELMD often heavily depends on proper selection of its model parameters. To this end, this paper proposes an optimized ensemble local mean decomposition (OELMD) method to determinate an optimum set of ELMD parameters for vibration signal analysis. In OELMD, an error index termed the relative root-mean-square error (Relative RMSE) is used to evaluate the decomposition performance of ELMD with a certain amplitude of the added white noise. Once a maximum Relative RMSE, corresponding to an optimal noise amplitude, is determined, OELMD then identifies optimal noise bandwidth and ensemble number based on the Relative RMSE and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), respectively. Thus, all three critical parameters of ELMD (i.e. noise amplitude and bandwidth, and ensemble number) are optimized by OELMD. The effectiveness of OELMD was evaluated using experimental vibration signals measured from three different mechanical components (i.e. the rolling bearing, gear and diesel engine) under faulty operation conditions.

Sparsity guided empirical wavelet transform for fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Zhao, Yang; Yi, Cai; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Lin, Jianhui

2018-02-01

Rolling element bearings are widely used in various industrial machines, such as electric motors, generators, pumps, gearboxes, railway axles, turbines, and helicopter transmissions. Fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings is beneficial to preventing any unexpected accident and reducing economic loss. In the past years, many bearing fault detection methods have been developed. Recently, a new adaptive signal processing method called empirical wavelet transform attracts much attention from readers and engineers and its applications to bearing fault diagnosis have been reported. The main problem of empirical wavelet transform is that Fourier segments required in empirical wavelet transform are strongly dependent on the local maxima of the amplitudes of the Fourier spectrum of a signal, which connotes that Fourier segments are not always reliable and effective if the Fourier spectrum of the signal is complicated and overwhelmed by heavy noises and other strong vibration components. In this paper, sparsity guided empirical wavelet transform is proposed to automatically establish Fourier segments required in empirical wavelet transform for fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings. Industrial bearing fault signals caused by single and multiple railway axle bearing defects are used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed sparsity guided empirical wavelet transform. Results show that the proposed method can automatically discover Fourier segments required in empirical wavelet transform and reveal single and multiple railway axle bearing defects. Besides, some comparisons with three popular signal processing methods including ensemble empirical mode decomposition, the fast kurtogram and the fast spectral correlation are conducted to highlight the superiority of the proposed method.

Assimilation of MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue Observations in the Dust Aerosol Component of NMMB-MONARCH version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Di Tomaso, Enza; Schutgens, Nick A. J.; Jorba, Oriol; Perez Garcia-Pando, Carlos

2017-01-01

A data assimilation capability has been built for the NMMB-MONARCH chemical weather prediction system, with a focus on mineral dust, a prominent type of aerosol. An ensemble-based Kalman filter technique (namely the local ensemble transform Kalman filter - LETKF) has been utilized to optimally combine model background and satellite retrievals. Our implementation of the ensemble is based on known uncertainties in the physical parametrizations of the dust emission scheme. Experiments showed that MODIS AOD retrievals using the Dark Target algorithm can help NMMB-MONARCH to better characterize atmospheric dust. This is particularly true for the analysis of the dust outflow in the Sahel region and over the African Atlantic coast. The assimilation of MODIS AOD retrievals based on the Deep Blue algorithm has a further positive impact in the analysis downwind from the strongest dust sources of the Sahara and in the Arabian Peninsula. An analysis-initialized forecast performs better (lower forecast error and higher correlation with observations) than a standard forecast, with the exception of underestimating dust in the long-range Atlantic transport and degradation of the temporal evolution of dust in some regions after day 1. Particularly relevant is the improved forecast over the Sahara throughout the forecast range thanks to the assimilation of Deep Blue retrievals over areas not easily covered by other observational datasets.The present study on mineral dust is a first step towards data assimilation with a complete aerosol prediction system that includes multiple aerosol species.

Assimilation of MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue observations in the dust aerosol component of NMMB-MONARCH version 1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Tomaso, Enza; Schutgens, Nick A. J.; Jorba, Oriol; Pérez García-Pando, Carlos

2017-03-01

A data assimilation capability has been built for the NMMB-MONARCH chemical weather prediction system, with a focus on mineral dust, a prominent type of aerosol. An ensemble-based Kalman filter technique (namely the local ensemble transform Kalman filter - LETKF) has been utilized to optimally combine model background and satellite retrievals. Our implementation of the ensemble is based on known uncertainties in the physical parametrizations of the dust emission scheme. Experiments showed that MODIS AOD retrievals using the Dark Target algorithm can help NMMB-MONARCH to better characterize atmospheric dust. This is particularly true for the analysis of the dust outflow in the Sahel region and over the African Atlantic coast. The assimilation of MODIS AOD retrievals based on the Deep Blue algorithm has a further positive impact in the analysis downwind from the strongest dust sources of the Sahara and in the Arabian Peninsula. An analysis-initialized forecast performs better (lower forecast error and higher correlation with observations) than a standard forecast, with the exception of underestimating dust in the long-range Atlantic transport and degradation of the temporal evolution of dust in some regions after day 1. Particularly relevant is the improved forecast over the Sahara throughout the forecast range thanks to the assimilation of Deep Blue retrievals over areas not easily covered by other observational datasets. The present study on mineral dust is a first step towards data assimilation with a complete aerosol prediction system that includes multiple aerosol species.

Statistical Ensemble of Large Eddy Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carati, Daniele; Rogers, Michael M.; Wray, Alan A.; Mansour, Nagi N. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A statistical ensemble of large eddy simulations (LES) is run simultaneously for the same flow. The information provided by the different large scale velocity fields is used to propose an ensemble averaged version of the dynamic model. This produces local model parameters that only depend on the statistical properties of the flow. An important property of the ensemble averaged dynamic procedure is that it does not require any spatial averaging and can thus be used in fully inhomogeneous flows. Also, the ensemble of LES's provides statistics of the large scale velocity that can be used for building new models for the subgrid-scale stress tensor. The ensemble averaged dynamic procedure has been implemented with various models for three flows: decaying isotropic turbulence, forced isotropic turbulence, and the time developing plane wake. It is found that the results are almost independent of the number of LES's in the statistical ensemble provided that the ensemble contains at least 16 realizations.

State and parameter estimation of spatiotemporally chaotic systems illustrated by an application to Rayleigh-Bénard convection.

PubMed

Cornick, Matthew; Hunt, Brian; Ott, Edward; Kurtuldu, Huseyin; Schatz, Michael F

2009-03-01

Data assimilation refers to the process of estimating a system's state from a time series of measurements (which may be noisy or incomplete) in conjunction with a model for the system's time evolution. Here we demonstrate the applicability of a recently developed data assimilation method, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter, to nonlinear, high-dimensional, spatiotemporally chaotic flows in Rayleigh-Bénard convection experiments. Using this technique we are able to extract the full temperature and velocity fields from a time series of shadowgraph measurements. In addition, we describe extensions of the algorithm for estimating model parameters. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of our data assimilation technique to a broad class of experimental situations exhibiting spatiotemporal chaos.

Hidden Structural Codes in Protein Intrinsic Disorder.

PubMed

Borkosky, Silvia S; Camporeale, Gabriela; Chemes, Lucía B; Risso, Marikena; Noval, María Gabriela; Sánchez, Ignacio E; Alonso, Leonardo G; de Prat Gay, Gonzalo

2017-10-17

Intrinsic disorder is a major structural category in biology, accounting for more than 30% of coding regions across the domains of life, yet consists of conformational ensembles in equilibrium, a major challenge in protein chemistry. Anciently evolved papillomavirus genomes constitute an unparalleled case for sequence to structure-function correlation in cases in which there are no folded structures. E7, the major transforming oncoprotein of human papillomaviruses, is a paradigmatic example among the intrinsically disordered proteins. Analysis of a large number of sequences of the same viral protein allowed for the identification of a handful of residues with absolute conservation, scattered along the sequence of its N-terminal intrinsically disordered domain, which intriguingly are mostly leucine residues. Mutation of these led to a pronounced increase in both α-helix and β-sheet structural content, reflected by drastic effects on equilibrium propensities and oligomerization kinetics, and uncovers the existence of local structural elements that oppose canonical folding. These folding relays suggest the existence of yet undefined hidden structural codes behind intrinsic disorder in this model protein. Thus, evolution pinpoints conformational hot spots that could have not been identified by direct experimental methods for analyzing or perturbing the equilibrium of an intrinsically disordered protein ensemble.

Toward canonical ensemble distribution from self-guided Langevin dynamics simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiongwu; Brooks, Bernard R.

2011-04-01

This work derives a quantitative description of the conformational distribution in self-guided Langevin dynamics (SGLD) simulations. SGLD simulations employ guiding forces calculated from local average momentums to enhance low-frequency motion. This enhancement in low-frequency motion dramatically accelerates conformational search efficiency, but also induces certain perturbations in conformational distribution. Through the local averaging, we separate properties of molecular systems into low-frequency and high-frequency portions. The guiding force effect on the conformational distribution is quantitatively described using these low-frequency and high-frequency properties. This quantitative relation provides a way to convert between a canonical ensemble and a self-guided ensemble. Using example systems, we demonstrated how to utilize the relation to obtain canonical ensemble properties and conformational distributions from SGLD simulations. This development makes SGLD not only an efficient approach for conformational searching, but also an accurate means for conformational sampling.

Preservation of physical properties with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janjic, T.

2017-12-01

We show the behavior of the localized Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with respect to preservation of positivity, conservation of mass, energy and enstrophy in toy models that conserve these properties. In order to preserve physical properties in the analysis as well as to deal with the non-Gaussianity in an EnKF framework, Janjic et al. 2014 proposed the use of physically based constraints in the analysis step to constrain the solution. In particular, constraints were used to ensure that the ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. In the study, mass and positivity were both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate nonnegativity constraints. Simple numerical experiments indicated that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that were more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. Moreover, in experiments designed to mimic the most important characteristics of convective motion, it is shown that the mass conservation- and positivity-constrained rain significantly suppresses noise seen in localized EnKF results. This is highly desirable in order to avoid spurious storms from appearing in the forecast starting from this initial condition (Lange and Craig 2014). In addition, the root mean square error is reduced for all fields and total mass of the rain is correctly simulated. Similarly, the enstrophy, divergence, as well as energy spectra can as well be strongly affected by localization radius, thinning interval, and inflation and depend on the variable that is observed (Zeng and Janjic, 2016). We constructed the ensemble data assimilation algorithm that conserves mass, total energy and enstrophy (Zeng et al., 2017). With 2D shallow water model experiments, it is found that the conservation of enstrophy within the data assimilation effectively avoids the spurious energy cascade of rotational part and thereby successfully suppresses the noise generated by the data assimilation algorithm. The 14-day deterministic and ensemble free forecast, starting from the initial condition enforced by both total energy and enstrophy constraints, produces the best prediction.

A comparison between EDA-EnVar and ETKF-EnVar data assimilation techniques using radar observations at convective scales through a case study of Hurricane Ike (2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Feifei; Xu, Dongmei; Xue, Ming; Min, Jinzhong

2017-07-01

This study examines the impacts of assimilating radar radial velocity (Vr) data for the simulation of hurricane Ike (2008) with two different ensemble generation techniques in the framework of the hybrid ensemble-variational (EnVar) data assimilation system of Weather Research and Forecasting model. For the generation of ensemble perturbations we apply two techniques, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and the ensemble of data assimilation (EDA). For the ETKF-EnVar, the forecast ensemble perturbations are updated by the ETKF, while for the EDA-EnVar, the hybrid is employed to update each ensemble member with perturbed observations. The ensemble mean is analyzed by the hybrid method with flow-dependent ensemble covariance for both EnVar. The sensitivity of analyses and forecasts to the two applied ensemble generation techniques is investigated in our current study. It is found that the EnVar system is rather stable with different ensemble update techniques in terms of its skill on improving the analyses and forecasts. The EDA-EnVar-based ensemble perturbations are likely to include slightly less organized spatial structures than those in ETKF-EnVar, and the perturbations of the latter are constructed more dynamically. Detailed diagnostics reveal that both of the EnVar schemes not only produce positive temperature increments around the hurricane center but also systematically adjust the hurricane location with the hurricane-specific error covariance. On average, the analysis and forecast from the ETKF-EnVar have slightly smaller errors than that from the EDA-EnVar in terms of track, intensity, and precipitation forecast. Moreover, ETKF-EnVar yields better forecasts when verified against conventional observations.

Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. E.; Morse, A. P.

2012-12-01

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.

Chimera states in an ensemble of linearly locally coupled bistable oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shchapin, D. S.; Dmitrichev, A. S.; Nekorkin, V. I.

2017-11-01

Chimera states in a system with linear local connections have been studied. The system is a ring ensemble of analog bistable self-excited oscillators with a resistive coupling. It has been shown that the existence of chimera states is not due to the nonidentity of oscillators and noise, which is always present in real experiments, but is due to the nonlinear dynamics of the system on invariant tori with various dimensions.

Ensemble Linear Neighborhood Propagation for Predicting Subchloroplast Localization of Multi-Location Proteins.

PubMed

Wan, Shibiao; Mak, Man-Wai; Kung, Sun-Yuan

2016-12-02

In the postgenomic era, the number of unreviewed protein sequences is remarkably larger and grows tremendously faster than that of reviewed ones. However, existing methods for protein subchloroplast localization often ignore the information from these unlabeled proteins. This paper proposes a multi-label predictor based on ensemble linear neighborhood propagation (LNP), namely, LNP-Chlo, which leverages hybrid sequence-based feature information from both labeled and unlabeled proteins for predicting localization of both single- and multi-label chloroplast proteins. Experimental results on a stringent benchmark dataset and a novel independent dataset suggest that LNP-Chlo performs at least 6% (absolute) better than state-of-the-art predictors. This paper also demonstrates that ensemble LNP significantly outperforms LNP based on individual features. For readers' convenience, the online Web server LNP-Chlo is freely available at http://bioinfo.eie.polyu.edu.hk/LNPChloServer/ .

Assessing a local ensemble Kalman filter: perfect model experiments with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szunyogh, Istvan; Kostelich, Eric J.; Gyarmati, G.; Patil, D. J.; Hunt, Brian R.; Kalnay, Eugenia; Ott, Edward; Yorke, James A.

2005-08-01

The accuracy and computational efficiency of the recently proposed local ensemble Kalman filter (LEKF) data assimilation scheme is investigated on a state-of-the-art operational numerical weather prediction model using simulated observations. The model selected for this purpose is the T62 horizontal- and 28-level vertical-resolution version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. The performance of the data assimilation system is assessed for different configurations of the LEKF scheme. It is shown that a modest size (40-member) ensemble is sufficient to track the evolution of the atmospheric state with high accuracy. For this ensemble size, the computational time per analysis is less than 9 min on a cluster of PCs. The analyses are extremely accurate in the mid-latitude storm track regions. The largest analysis errors, which are typically much smaller than the observational errors, occur where parametrized physical processes play important roles. Because these are also the regions where model errors are expected to be the largest, limitations of a real-data implementation of the ensemble-based Kalman filter may be easily mistaken for model errors. In light of these results, the importance of testing the ensemble-based Kalman filter data assimilation systems on simulated observations is stressed.

Independent Metrics for Protein Backbone and Side-Chain Flexibility: Time Scales and Effects of Ligand Binding.

PubMed

Fuchs, Julian E; Waldner, Birgit J; Huber, Roland G; von Grafenstein, Susanne; Kramer, Christian; Liedl, Klaus R

2015-03-10

Conformational dynamics are central for understanding biomolecular structure and function, since biological macromolecules are inherently flexible at room temperature and in solution. Computational methods are nowadays capable of providing valuable information on the conformational ensembles of biomolecules. However, analysis tools and intuitive metrics that capture dynamic information from in silico generated structural ensembles are limited. In standard work-flows, flexibility in a conformational ensemble is represented through residue-wise root-mean-square fluctuations or B-factors following a global alignment. Consequently, these approaches relying on global alignments discard valuable information on local dynamics. Results inherently depend on global flexibility, residue size, and connectivity. In this study we present a novel approach for capturing positional fluctuations based on multiple local alignments instead of one single global alignment. The method captures local dynamics within a structural ensemble independent of residue type by splitting individual local and global degrees of freedom of protein backbone and side-chains. Dependence on residue type and size in the side-chains is removed via normalization with the B-factors of the isolated residue. As a test case, we demonstrate its application to a molecular dynamics simulation of bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor (BPTI) on the millisecond time scale. This allows for illustrating different time scales of backbone and side-chain flexibility. Additionally, we demonstrate the effects of ligand binding on side-chain flexibility of three serine proteases. We expect our new methodology for quantifying local flexibility to be helpful in unraveling local changes in biomolecular dynamics.

Model Independence in Downscaled Climate Projections: a Case Study in the Southeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, G. M. E.; Boyles, R.

2016-12-01

Downscaled climate projections are used to deduce how the climate will change in future decades at local and regional scales. It is important to use multiple models to characterize part of the future uncertainty given the impact on adaptation decision making. This is traditionally employed through an equally-weighted ensemble of multiple GCMs downscaled using one technique. Newer practices include several downscaling techniques in an effort to increase the ensemble's representation of future uncertainty. However, this practice may be adding statistically dependent models to the ensemble. Previous research has shown a dependence problem in the GCM ensemble in multiple generations, but has not been shown in the downscaled ensemble. In this case study, seven downscaled climate projections on the daily time scale are considered: CLAREnCE10, SERAP, BCCA (CMIP5 and CMIP3 versions), Hostetler, CCR, and MACA-LIVNEH. These data represent 83 ensemble members, 44 GCMs, and two generations of GCMs. Baseline periods are compared against the University of Idaho's METDATA gridded observation dataset. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering is applied to the correlated errors to determine dependent clusters. Redundant GCMs across different downscaling techniques show the most dependence, while smaller dependence signals are detected within downscaling datasets and across generations of GCMs. These results indicate that using additional downscaled projections to increase the ensemble size must be done with care to avoid redundant GCMs and the process of downscaling may increase the dependence of those downscaled GCMs. Climate model generation does not appear dissimilar enough to be treated as two separate statistical populations for ensemble building at the local and regional scales.

Integral transforms of the quantum mechanical path integral: Hit function and path-averaged potential.

PubMed

Edwards, James P; Gerber, Urs; Schubert, Christian; Trejo, Maria Anabel; Weber, Axel

2018-04-01

We introduce two integral transforms of the quantum mechanical transition kernel that represent physical information about the path integral. These transforms can be interpreted as probability distributions on particle trajectories measuring respectively the relative contribution to the path integral from paths crossing a given spatial point (the hit function) and the likelihood of values of the line integral of the potential along a path in the ensemble (the path-averaged potential).

Integral transforms of the quantum mechanical path integral: Hit function and path-averaged potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, James P.; Gerber, Urs; Schubert, Christian; Trejo, Maria Anabel; Weber, Axel

2018-04-01

We introduce two integral transforms of the quantum mechanical transition kernel that represent physical information about the path integral. These transforms can be interpreted as probability distributions on particle trajectories measuring respectively the relative contribution to the path integral from paths crossing a given spatial point (the hit function) and the likelihood of values of the line integral of the potential along a path in the ensemble (the path-averaged potential).

Sequential updating of multimodal hydrogeologic parameter fields using localization and clustering techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Alexander Y.; Morris, Alan P.; Mohanty, Sitakanta

2009-07-01

Estimated parameter distributions in groundwater models may contain significant uncertainties because of data insufficiency. Therefore, adaptive uncertainty reduction strategies are needed to continuously improve model accuracy by fusing new observations. In recent years, various ensemble Kalman filters have been introduced as viable tools for updating high-dimensional model parameters. However, their usefulness is largely limited by the inherent assumption of Gaussian error statistics. Hydraulic conductivity distributions in alluvial aquifers, for example, are usually non-Gaussian as a result of complex depositional and diagenetic processes. In this study, we combine an ensemble Kalman filter with grid-based localization and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) clustering techniques for updating high-dimensional, multimodal parameter distributions via dynamic data assimilation. We introduce innovative strategies (e.g., block updating and dimension reduction) to effectively reduce the computational costs associated with these modified ensemble Kalman filter schemes. The developed data assimilation schemes are demonstrated numerically for identifying the multimodal heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity distributions in a binary facies alluvial aquifer. Our results show that localization and GMM clustering are very promising techniques for assimilating high-dimensional, multimodal parameter distributions, and they outperform the corresponding global ensemble Kalman filter analysis scheme in all scenarios considered.

An Iterative Local Updating Ensemble Smoother for Estimation and Uncertainty Assessment of Hydrologic Model Parameters With Multimodal Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Lin, Guang; Li, Weixuan; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-03-01

Ensemble smoother (ES) has been widely used in inverse modeling of hydrologic systems. However, for problems where the distribution of model parameters is multimodal, using ES directly would be problematic. One popular solution is to use a clustering algorithm to identify each mode and update the clusters with ES separately. However, this strategy may not be very efficient when the dimension of parameter space is high or the number of modes is large. Alternatively, we propose in this paper a very simple and efficient algorithm, i.e., the iterative local updating ensemble smoother (ILUES), to explore multimodal distributions of model parameters in nonlinear hydrologic systems. The ILUES algorithm works by updating local ensembles of each sample with ES to explore possible multimodal distributions. To achieve satisfactory data matches in nonlinear problems, we adopt an iterative form of ES to assimilate the measurements multiple times. Numerical cases involving nonlinearity and multimodality are tested to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. It is shown that overall the ILUES algorithm can well quantify the parametric uncertainties of complex hydrologic models, no matter whether the multimodal distribution exists.

Local Dynamics of Baroclinic Waves in the Martian Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavulich, M. J.; Szunyogh, I.; Gyarmati, G.; Wilson, R.

2010-12-01

In this presentation, the spatio-temporal evolution of baroclinic waves in the GFDL Mars GCM is investigated. The study employs diagnostic techniques that were developed to analyze the life cycles of baroclinic waves in the terrestrial atmosphere. These techniques include a Hilbert-transform-based method to extract the packets of Rossby wave envelopes at the jet level, the eddy kinetic energy equation for the full atmospheric column, and ensemble-based diagnostics. The results show that, similar to the terrestrial atmosphere, coherent westward-propagating wave packets can be detected in the Martian atmosphere. These wave packets are composed of waves of wavenumber 2 through 5, in contrast to the wavenumber 4 through 9 waves that contribute the upper-tropospheric wave packets of the terrestrial atmosphere. Additionally, as in the terrestrial atmosphere, the dominant part of the eddy kinetic energy is generated in regions of baroclinic energy conversion, which are strongly localized in both space and time. Implications of the results for predictability of the state of the Martian atmosphere are also discussed.

Localization in covariance matrices of coupled heterogenous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barucca, Paolo

2014-12-01

We define a random-matrix ensemble given by the infinite-time covariance matrices of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes at different temperatures coupled by a Gaussian symmetric matrix. The spectral properties of this ensemble are shown to be in qualitative agreement with some stylized facts of financial markets. Through the presented model formulas are given for the analysis of heterogeneous time series. Furthermore evidence for a localization transition in eigenvectors related to small and large eigenvalues in cross-correlations analysis of this model is found, and a simple explanation of localization phenomena in financial time series is provided. Finally we identify both in our model and in real financial data an inverted-bell effect in correlation between localized components and their local temperature: high- and low-temperature components are the most localized ones.

Development of the NHM-LETKF regional reanalysis system assimilating conventional observations only

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukui, S.; Iwasaki, T.; Saito, K. K.; Seko, H.; Kunii, M.

2016-12-01

The information about long-term high-resolution atmospheric fields is very useful for studying meso-scale responses to climate change or analyzing extreme events. We are developing a NHM-LETKF (the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the nonhydrostatic model of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)) regional reanalysis system assimilating only conventional observations that are available over about 60 years such as surface observations at observatories and upper air observations with radiosondes. The domain covers Japan and its surroundings. Before the long-term reanalysis is performed, an experiment using the system was conducted over August in 2014 in order to identify effectiveness and problems of the regional reanalysis system. In this study, we investigated the six-hour accumulated precipitations obtained by integration from the analysis fields. The reproduced precipitation was compared with the JMA's Radar/Rain-gauge Analyzed Precipitation data over Japan islands and the precipitation of JRA-55, which is used as lateral boundary conditions. The comparisons reveal the underestimation of the precipitation in the regional reanalysis. The underestimation is improved by extending the forecast time. In the regional reanalysis system, the analysis fields are derived using the ensemble mean fields, where the conflicting components among ensemble members are filtered out. Therefore, it is important to tune the inflation factor and lateral boundary perturbations not to smooth the analysis fields excessively and to consider more time to spin-up the fields. In the extended run, the underestimation still remains. This implies that the underestimation is attributed to the forecast model itself as well as the analysis scheme.

Measuring excess free energies of self-assembled membrane structures.

PubMed

Norizoe, Yuki; Daoulas, Kostas Ch; Müller, Marcus

2010-01-01

Using computer simulation of a solvent-free, coarse-grained model for amphiphilic membranes, we study the excess free energy of hourglass-shaped connections (i.e., stalks) between two apposed bilayer membranes. In order to calculate the free energy by simulation in the canonical ensemble, we reversibly transfer two apposed bilayers into a configuration with a stalk in three steps. First, we gradually replace the intermolecular interactions by an external, ordering field. The latter is chosen such that the structure of the non-interacting system in this field closely resembles the structure of the original, interacting system in the absence of the external field. The absence of structural changes along this path suggests that it is reversible; a fact which is confirmed by expanded-ensemble simulations. Second, the external, ordering field is changed as to transform the non-interacting system from the apposed bilayer structure to two-bilayers connected by a stalk. The final external field is chosen such that the structure of the non-interacting system resembles the structure of the stalk in the interacting system without a field. On the third branch of the transformation path, we reversibly replace the external, ordering field by non-bonded interactions. Using expanded-ensemble techniques, the free energy change along this reversible path can be obtained with an accuracy of 10(-3)k(B)T per molecule in the n VT-ensemble. Calculating the chemical potential, we obtain the free energy of a stalk in the grandcanonical ensemble, and employing semi-grandcanonical techniques, we calculate the change of the excess free energy upon altering the molecular architecture. This computational strategy can be applied to compute the free energy of self-assembled phases in lipid and copolymer systems, and the excess free energy of defects or interfaces.

Computer Experiments in Transformational Grammar; French I. Department of Computer and Communication Sciences Natural Language Studies No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morin, Yves Ch.

Described in this paper is the implementation of Querido's French grammar ("Grammaire I, Description transformationelle d'un sous-ensemble du Francais," 1969) on the computer system for transformational grammar at the University of Michigan (Friedman 1969). The purpose was to demonstrate the ease of transcribing a relative formal grammar into the…

Generalized Gibbs ensembles for quantum field theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Essler, F. H. L.; Mussardo, G.; Panfil, M.

2015-05-01

We consider the nonequilibrium dynamics in quantum field theories (QFTs). After being prepared in a density matrix that is not an eigenstate of the Hamiltonian, such systems are expected to relax locally to a stationary state. In the presence of local conservation laws, these stationary states are believed to be described by appropriate generalized Gibbs ensembles. Here we demonstrate that in order to obtain a correct description of the stationary state, it is necessary to take into account conservation laws that are not (ultra)local in the usual sense of QFTs, but fulfill a significantly weaker form of locality. We discuss the implications of our results for integrable QFTs in one spatial dimension.

Development of a stacked ensemble model for forecasting and analyzing daily average PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Zhai, Binxu; Chen, Jianguo

2018-04-18

A stacked ensemble model is developed for forecasting and analyzing the daily average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Beijing, China. Special feature extraction procedures, including those of simplification, polynomial, transformation and combination, are conducted before modeling to identify potentially significant features based on an exploratory data analysis. Stability feature selection and tree-based feature selection methods are applied to select important variables and evaluate the degrees of feature importance. Single models including LASSO, Adaboost, XGBoost and multi-layer perceptron optimized by the genetic algorithm (GA-MLP) are established in the level 0 space and are then integrated by support vector regression (SVR) in the level 1 space via stacked generalization. A feature importance analysis reveals that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations measured from the city of Zhangjiakou are taken as the most important elements of pollution factors for forecasting PM 2.5 concentrations. Local extreme wind speeds and maximal wind speeds are considered to extend the most effects of meteorological factors to the cross-regional transportation of contaminants. Pollutants found in the cities of Zhangjiakou and Chengde have a stronger impact on air quality in Beijing than other surrounding factors. Our model evaluation shows that the ensemble model generally performs better than a single nonlinear forecasting model when applied to new data with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.90 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 23.69μg/m 3 . For single pollutant grade recognition, the proposed model performs better when applied to days characterized by good air quality than when applied to days registering high levels of pollution. The overall classification accuracy level is 73.93%, with most misclassifications made among adjacent categories. The results demonstrate the interpretability and generalizability of the stacked ensemble model. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rényi entropy, abundance distribution, and the equivalence of ensembles.

PubMed

Mora, Thierry; Walczak, Aleksandra M

2016-05-01

Distributions of abundances or frequencies play an important role in many fields of science, from biology to sociology, as does the Rényi entropy, which measures the diversity of a statistical ensemble. We derive a mathematical relation between the abundance distribution and the Rényi entropy, by analogy with the equivalence of ensembles in thermodynamics. The abundance distribution is mapped onto the density of states, and the Rényi entropy to the free energy. The two quantities are related in the thermodynamic limit by a Legendre transform, by virtue of the equivalence between the micro-canonical and canonical ensembles. In this limit, we show how the Rényi entropy can be constructed geometrically from rank-frequency plots. This mapping predicts that non-concave regions of the rank-frequency curve should result in kinks in the Rényi entropy as a function of its order. We illustrate our results on simple examples, and emphasize the limitations of the equivalence of ensembles when a thermodynamic limit is not well defined. Our results help choose reliable diversity measures based on the experimental accuracy of the abundance distributions in particular frequency ranges.

A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butala, Mark D.

2012-01-01

Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.

Balanced Atmospheric Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hastermann, Gottfried; Reinhardt, Maria; Klein, Rupert; Reich, Sebastian

2017-04-01

The atmosphere's multi-scale structure poses several major challenges in numerical weather prediction. One of these arises in the context of data assimilation. The large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere are balanced in the sense that acoustic or rapid internal wave oscillations generally come with negligibly small amplitudes. If triggered artificially, however, through inappropriate initialization or by data assimilation, such oscillations can have a detrimental effect on forecast quality as they interact with the moist aerothermodynamics of the atmosphere. In the setting of sequential Bayesian data assimilation, we therefore investigate two different strategies to reduce these artificial oscillations induced by the analysis step. On the one hand, we develop a new modification for a local ensemble transform Kalman filter, which penalizes imbalances via a minimization problem. On the other hand, we modify the first steps of the subsequent forecast to push the ensemble members back to the slow evolution. We therefore propose the use of certain asymptotically consistent integrators that can blend between the balanced and the unbalanced evolution model seamlessly. In our work, we furthermore present numerical results and performance of the proposed methods for two nonlinear ordinary differential equation models, where we can identify the different scales clearly. The first one is a Lorenz 96 model coupled with a wave equation. In this case the balance relation is linear and the imbalances are caused only by the localization of the filter. The second one is the elastic double pendulum where the balance relation itself is already highly nonlinear. In both cases the methods perform very well and could significantly reduce the imbalances and therefore increase the forecast quality of the slow variables.

Soft sensor modeling based on variable partition ensemble method for nonlinear batch processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li; Chen, Xiangguang; Yang, Kai; Jin, Huaiping

2017-01-01

Batch processes are always characterized by nonlinear and system uncertain properties, therefore, the conventional single model may be ill-suited. A local learning strategy soft sensor based on variable partition ensemble method is developed for the quality prediction of nonlinear and non-Gaussian batch processes. A set of input variable sets are obtained by bootstrapping and PMI criterion. Then, multiple local GPR models are developed based on each local input variable set. When a new test data is coming, the posterior probability of each best performance local model is estimated based on Bayesian inference and used to combine these local GPR models to get the final prediction result. The proposed soft sensor is demonstrated by applying to an industrial fed-batch chlortetracycline fermentation process.

Local box-counting dimensions of discrete quantum eigenvalue spectra: Analytical connection to quantum spectral statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakhr, Jamal; Nieminen, John M.

2018-03-01

Two decades ago, Wang and Ong, [Phys. Rev. A 55, 1522 (1997)], 10.1103/PhysRevA.55.1522 hypothesized that the local box-counting dimension of a discrete quantum spectrum should depend exclusively on the nearest-neighbor spacing distribution (NNSD) of the spectrum. In this Rapid Communication, we validate their hypothesis by deriving an explicit formula for the local box-counting dimension of a countably-infinite discrete quantum spectrum. This formula expresses the local box-counting dimension of a spectrum in terms of single and double integrals of the NNSD of the spectrum. As applications, we derive an analytical formula for Poisson spectra and closed-form approximations to the local box-counting dimension for spectra having Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE), Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE), and Gaussian symplectic ensemble (GSE) spacing statistics. In the Poisson and GOE cases, we compare our theoretical formulas with the published numerical data of Wang and Ong and observe excellent agreement between their data and our theory. We also study numerically the local box-counting dimensions of the Riemann zeta function zeros and the alternate levels of GOE spectra, which are often used as numerical models of spectra possessing GUE and GSE spacing statistics, respectively. In each case, the corresponding theoretical formula is found to accurately describe the numerically computed local box-counting dimension.

Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost. PMID:27725828

Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buckley, R.; Chiswell, S.; Kurzeja, R.

Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two releasemore » times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.« less

Understanding the Structural Ensembles of a Highly Extended Disordered Protein†

PubMed Central

Daughdrill, Gary W.; Kashtanov, Stepan; Stancik, Amber; Hill, Shannon E.; Helms, Gregory; Muschol, Martin

2013-01-01

Developing a comprehensive description of the equilibrium structural ensembles for intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) is essential to understanding their function. The p53 transactivation domain (p53TAD) is an IDP that interacts with multiple protein partners and contains numerous phosphorylation sites. Multiple techniques were used to investigate the equilibrium structural ensemble of p53TAD in its native and chemically unfolded states. The results from these experiments show that the native state of p53TAD has dimensions similar to a classical random coil while the chemically unfolded state is more extended. To investigate the molecular properties responsible for this behavior, a novel algorithm that generates diverse and unbiased structural ensembles of IDPs was developed. This algorithm was used to generate a large pool of plausible p53TAD structures that were reweighted to identify a subset of structures with the best fit to small angle X-ray scattering data. High weight structures in the native state ensemble show features that are localized to protein binding sites and regions with high proline content. The features localized to the protein binding sites are mostly eliminated in the chemically unfolded ensemble; while, the regions with high proline content remain relatively unaffected. Data from NMR experiments support these results, showing that residues from the protein binding sites experience larger environmental changes upon unfolding by urea than regions with high proline content. This behavior is consistent with the urea-induced exposure of nonpolar and aromatic side-chains in the protein binding sites that are partially excluded from solvent in the native state ensemble. PMID:21979461

Far-from-equilibrium magnetic granular layers: dynamic patterns, magnetic order and self-assembled swimmers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snezhko, Alexey

2010-03-01

Ensembles of interacting particles subject to an external periodic forcing often develop nontrivial collective behavior and self-assembled dynamic patterns. We study emergent phenomena in magnetic granular ensembles suspended at a liquid-air and liquid-liquid interfaces and subjected to a transversal alternating magnetic field. Experiments reveal a new type of nontrivially ordered dynamic self-assembled structures (in particular, ``magnetic snakes'', ``asters'', ``clams'') emerging in such systems in a certain range of excitation parameters. These non-equilibrium dynamic structures emerge as a result of the competition between magnetic and hydrodynamic forces and have complex magnetic ordering. Transition between different self-assembled phases with parameters of external driving magnetic field is observed. I will show that above some frequency threshold magnetic snakes spontaneously break the symmetry of the self-induced surface flows (symmetry breaking instability) and turn into swimmers. Self-induced surface flows symmetry can be also broken in a controlled fashion by introduction of a large bead to a magnetic snake (bead-snake hybrid), that transforms it into a robust self-locomoting entity. Some features of the self-localized structures can be understood in the framework of an amplitude equation for parametric waves coupled to the conservation law equation describing the evolution of the magnetic particle density and the Navier-Stokes equation for hydrodynamic flows.

Representational analysis of extended disorder in atomistic ensembles derived from total scattering data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neilson, James R.; McQueen, Tyrel M.

With the increased availability of high-intensity time-of-flight neutron and synchrotron X-ray scattering sources that can access wide ranges of momentum transfer, the pair distribution function method has become a standard analysis technique for studying disorder of local coordination spheres and at intermediate atomic separations. In some cases, rational modeling of the total scattering data (Bragg and diffuse) becomes intractable with least-squares approaches, necessitating reverse Monte Carlo simulations using large atomistic ensembles. However, the extraction of meaningful information from the resulting atomistic ensembles is challenging, especially at intermediate length scales. Representational analysis is used here to describe the displacements of atomsmore » in reverse Monte Carlo ensembles from an ideal crystallographic structure in an approach analogous to tight-binding methods. Rewriting the displacements in terms of a local basis that is descriptive of the ideal crystallographic symmetry provides a robust approach to characterizing medium-range order (and disorder) and symmetry breaking in complex and disordered crystalline materials. Lastly, this method enables the extraction of statistically relevant displacement modes (orientation, amplitude and distribution) of the crystalline disorder and provides directly meaningful information in a locally symmetry-adapted basis set that is most descriptive of the crystal chemistry and physics.« less

Representational analysis of extended disorder in atomistic ensembles derived from total scattering data

DOE PAGES

Neilson, James R.; McQueen, Tyrel M.

2015-09-20

With the increased availability of high-intensity time-of-flight neutron and synchrotron X-ray scattering sources that can access wide ranges of momentum transfer, the pair distribution function method has become a standard analysis technique for studying disorder of local coordination spheres and at intermediate atomic separations. In some cases, rational modeling of the total scattering data (Bragg and diffuse) becomes intractable with least-squares approaches, necessitating reverse Monte Carlo simulations using large atomistic ensembles. However, the extraction of meaningful information from the resulting atomistic ensembles is challenging, especially at intermediate length scales. Representational analysis is used here to describe the displacements of atomsmore » in reverse Monte Carlo ensembles from an ideal crystallographic structure in an approach analogous to tight-binding methods. Rewriting the displacements in terms of a local basis that is descriptive of the ideal crystallographic symmetry provides a robust approach to characterizing medium-range order (and disorder) and symmetry breaking in complex and disordered crystalline materials. Lastly, this method enables the extraction of statistically relevant displacement modes (orientation, amplitude and distribution) of the crystalline disorder and provides directly meaningful information in a locally symmetry-adapted basis set that is most descriptive of the crystal chemistry and physics.« less

Internal and forced eddy variability in the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracco, A.; Luo, H.; Zhong, Y.; Lilly, J.

2009-04-01

Water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea, widely believed to be one of the key regions in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), now appears to be strongly impacted by vortex dynamics of the unstable boundary current. Large interannual variations in both eddy shedding and buoyancy transport from the boundary current have been observed but not explained, and are apparently sensitive to the state of the inflowing current. Heat and salinity fluxes associated with the eddies drive ventilation changes not accounted for by changes in local surface forcing, particularly during occasional years of extreme eddy activity, and constitute a predominant source of "internal" oceanic variability. The nature of this variable eddy-driven restratification is one of the outstanding questions along the northern transformation pathway. Here we investigate the eddy generation mechanism and the associated buoyancy fluxes by combining realistic and idealized numerical modeling, data analysis, and theory. Theory, supported by idealized experiments, provides criteria to test hypotheses as to the vortex formation process (by baroclinic instability linked to the bottom topography). Ensembles of numerical experiments with a high-resolution regional model (ROMS) allow for quantifying the sensitivity of eddy generation and property transport to variations in local and external forcing parameters. For the first time, we reproduce with a numerical simulation the observed interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy in the convective region of the Labrador Basin and along the West Greenland Current.

Evaluating a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter snow cover data assimilation method to estimate SWE within a high-resolution hydrologic modeling framework across Western US mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oaida, C. M.; Andreadis, K.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.; Levoe, S.

2017-12-01

Accurately estimating how much snow water equivalent (SWE) is stored in mountainous regions characterized by complex terrain and snowmelt-driven hydrologic cycles is not only greatly desirable, but also a big challenge. Mountain snowpack exhibits high spatial variability across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales due to a multitude of physical and climatic factors, making it difficult to observe or estimate in its entirety. Combing remotely sensed data and high resolution hydrologic modeling through data assimilation (DA) has the potential to provide a spatially and temporally continuous SWE dataset at horizontal scales that capture sub-grid snow spatial variability and are also relevant to stakeholders such as water resource managers. Here, we present the evaluation of a new snow DA approach that uses a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in tandem with the Variable Infiltration Capacity macro-scale hydrologic model across the Western United States, at a daily temporal resolution, and a horizontal resolution of 1.75 km x 1.75 km. The LETKF is chosen for its relative simplicity, ease of implementation, and computational efficiency and scalability. The modeling/DA system assimilates daily MODIS Snow Covered Area and Grain Size (MODSCAG) fractional snow cover over, and has been developed to efficiently calculate SWE estimates over extended periods of time and covering large regional-scale areas at relatively high spatial resolution, ultimately producing a snow reanalysis-type dataset. Here we focus on the assessment of SWE produced by the DA scheme over several basins in California's Sierra Nevada Mountain range where Airborne Snow Observatory data is available, during the last five water years (2013-2017), which include both one of the driest and one of the wettest years. Comparison against such a spatially distributed SWE observational product provides a greater understanding of the model's ability to estimate SWE and SWE spatial variability, and highlights under which conditions snow cover DA can add value in estimating SWE.

Chimera regimes in a ring of oscillators with local nonlinear interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepelev, Igor A.; Zakharova, Anna; Vadivasova, Tatiana E.

2017-03-01

One of important problems concerning chimera states is the conditions of their existence and stability. Until now, it was assumed that chimeras could arise only in ensembles with nonlocal character of interactions. However, this assumption is not exactly right. In some special cases chimeras can be realized for local type of coupling [1-3]. We propose a simple model of ensemble with local coupling when chimeras are realized. This model is a ring of linear oscillators with the local nonlinear unidirectional interaction. Chimera structures in the ring are found using computer simulations for wide area of values of parameters. Diagram of the regimes on plane of control parameters is plotted and scenario of chimera destruction are studied when the parameters are changed.

Quasi-static ensemble variational data assimilation: a theoretical and numerical study with the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fillion, Anthony; Bocquet, Marc; Gratton, Serge

2018-04-01

The analysis in nonlinear variational data assimilation is the solution of a non-quadratic minimization. Thus, the analysis efficiency relies on its ability to locate a global minimum of the cost function. If this minimization uses a Gauss-Newton (GN) method, it is critical for the starting point to be in the attraction basin of a global minimum. Otherwise the method may converge to a local extremum, which degrades the analysis. With chaotic models, the number of local extrema often increases with the temporal extent of the data assimilation window, making the former condition harder to satisfy. This is unfortunate because the assimilation performance also increases with this temporal extent. However, a quasi-static (QS) minimization may overcome these local extrema. It accomplishes this by gradually injecting the observations in the cost function. This method was introduced by Pires et al. (1996) in a 4D-Var context. We generalize this approach to four-dimensional strong-constraint nonlinear ensemble variational (EnVar) methods, which are based on both a nonlinear variational analysis and the propagation of dynamical error statistics via an ensemble. This forces one to consider the cost function minimizations in the broader context of cycled data assimilation algorithms. We adapt this QS approach to the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS), an exemplar of nonlinear deterministic four-dimensional EnVar methods. Using low-order models, we quantify the positive impact of the QS approach on the IEnKS, especially for long data assimilation windows. We also examine the computational cost of QS implementations and suggest cheaper algorithms.

Stability and Noise-induced Transitions in an Ensemble of Nonlocally Coupled Chaotic Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bukh, Andrei V.; Slepnev, Andrei V.; Anishchenko, Vadim S.; Vadivasova, Tatiana E.

2018-05-01

The influence of noise on chimera states arising in ensembles of nonlocally coupled chaotic maps is studied. There are two types of chimera structures that can be obtained in such ensembles: phase and amplitude chimera states. In this work, a series of numerical experiments is carried out to uncover the impact of noise on both types of chimeras. The noise influence on a chimera state in the regime of periodic dynamics results in the transition to chaotic dynamics. At the same time, the transformation of incoherence clusters of the phase chimera to incoherence clusters of the amplitude chimera occurs. Moreover, it is established that the noise impact may result in the appearance of a cluster with incoherent behavior in the middle of a coherence cluster.

A non-parametric postprocessor for bias-correcting multi-model ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, James; Seo, Dong-Jun

2010-05-01

Operational forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables often contain large uncertainties, for which ensemble techniques are increasingly used. However, the utility of ensemble forecasts depends on the unbiasedness of the forecast probabilities. We describe a technique for quantifying and removing biases from ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables, intended for use in operational forecasting. The technique makes no a priori assumptions about the distributional form of the variables, which is often unknown or difficult to model parametrically. The aim is to estimate the conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) of the observed variable given a (possibly biased) real-time ensemble forecast from one or several forecasting systems (multi-model ensembles). The technique is based on Bayesian optimal linear estimation of indicator variables, and is analogous to indicator cokriging (ICK) in geostatistics. By developing linear estimators for the conditional expectation of the observed variable at many thresholds, ICK provides a discrete approximation of the full ccdf. Since ICK minimizes the conditional error variance of the indicator expectation at each threshold, it effectively minimizes the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) when infinitely many thresholds are employed. However, the ensemble members used as predictors in ICK, and other bias-correction techniques, are often highly cross-correlated, both within and between models. Thus, we propose an orthogonal transform of the predictors used in ICK, which is analogous to using their principal components in the linear system of equations. This leads to a well-posed problem in which a minimum number of predictors are used to provide maximum information content in terms of the total variance explained. The technique is used to bias-correct precipitation ensemble forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), for which independent validation results are presented. Extension to multimodel ensembles from the NCEP GFS and Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) systems is also proposed.

Localization of a variational particle smoother

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morzfeld, M.; Hodyss, D.; Poterjoy, J.

2017-12-01

Given the success of 4D-variational methods (4D-Var) in numerical weather prediction,and recent efforts to merge ensemble Kalman filters with 4D-Var,we consider a method to merge particle methods and 4D-Var.This leads us to revisit variational particle smoothers (varPS).We study the collapse of varPS in high-dimensional problemsand show how it can be prevented by weight-localization.We test varPS on the Lorenz'96 model of dimensionsn=40, n=400, and n=2000.In our numerical experiments, weight localization prevents the collapse of the varPS,and we note that the varPS yields results comparable to ensemble formulations of 4D-variational methods,while it outperforms EnKF with tuned localization and inflation,and the localized standard particle filter.Additional numerical experiments suggest that using localized weights in varPS may not yield significant advantages over unweighted or linearizedsolutions in near-Gaussian problems.

First-Order Interfacial Transformations with a Critical Point: Breaking the Symmetry at a Symmetric Tilt Grain Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Shengfeng; Zhou, Naixie; Zheng, Hui; Ong, Shyue Ping; Luo, Jian

2018-02-01

First-order interfacial phaselike transformations that break the mirror symmetry of the symmetric ∑5 (210 ) tilt grain boundary (GB) are discovered by combining a modified genetic algorithm with hybrid Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations. Density functional theory calculations confirm this prediction. This first-order coupled structural and adsorption transformation, which produces two variants of asymmetric bilayers, vanishes at an interfacial critical point. A GB complexion (phase) diagram is constructed via semigrand canonical ensemble atomistic simulations for the first time.

Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

2008-01-01

Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

Breaking of Ensemble Equivalence in Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squartini, Tiziano; de Mol, Joey; den Hollander, Frank; Garlaschelli, Diego

2015-12-01

It is generally believed that, in the thermodynamic limit, the microcanonical description as a function of energy coincides with the canonical description as a function of temperature. However, various examples of systems for which the microcanonical and canonical ensembles are not equivalent have been identified. A complete theory of this intriguing phenomenon is still missing. Here we show that ensemble nonequivalence can manifest itself also in random graphs with topological constraints. We find that, while graphs with a given number of links are ensemble equivalent, graphs with a given degree sequence are not. This result holds irrespective of whether the energy is nonadditive (as in unipartite graphs) or additive (as in bipartite graphs). In contrast with previous expectations, our results show that (1) physically, nonequivalence can be induced by an extensive number of local constraints, and not necessarily by long-range interactions or nonadditivity, (2) mathematically, nonequivalence is determined by a different large-deviation behavior of microcanonical and canonical probabilities for a single microstate, and not necessarily for almost all microstates. The latter criterion, which is entirely local, is not restricted to networks and holds in general.

Triplet correlation functions in liquid water

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dhabal, Debdas; Chakravarty, Charusita, E-mail: charus@chemistry.iitd.ac.in; Singh, Murari

Triplet correlations have been shown to play a crucial role in the transformation of simple liquids to anomalous tetrahedral fluids [M. Singh, D. Dhabal, A. H. Nguyen, V. Molinero, and C. Chakravarty, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 147801 (2014)]. Here we examine triplet correlation functions for water, arguably the most important tetrahedral liquid, under ambient conditions, using configurational ensembles derived from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) datasets fitted to experimental scattering data. Four different RMC data sets with widely varying hydrogen-bond topologies fitted to neutron and x-ray scattering data are considered [K. T. Wikfeldt, M. Leetmaa, M.more » P. Ljungberg, A. Nilsson, and L. G. M. Pettersson, J. Phys. Chem. B 113, 6246 (2009)]. Molecular dynamics simulations are performed for two rigid-body effective pair potentials (SPC/E and TIP4P/2005) and the monatomic water (mW) model. Triplet correlation functions are compared with other structural measures for tetrahedrality, such as the O–O–O angular distribution function and the local tetrahedral order distributions. In contrast to the pair correlation functions, which are identical for all the RMC ensembles, the O–O–O triplet correlation function can discriminate between ensembles with different degrees of tetrahedral network formation with the maximally symmetric, tetrahedral SYM dataset displaying distinct signatures of tetrahedrality similar to those obtained from atomistic simulations of the SPC/E model. Triplet correlations from the RMC datasets conform closely to the Kirkwood superposition approximation, while those from MD simulations show deviations within the first two neighbour shells. The possibilities for experimental estimation of triplet correlations of water and other tetrahedral liquids are discussed.« less

Influence of Aerosol Heating on the Stratospheric Transport of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aquila, Valentina; Oman, Luke D.; Stolarski, Richard S.

2011-01-01

On June 15th, 1991 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (15.1 deg. N, 120.3 Deg. E) in the Philippines injected about 20 Tg of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere, which was transformed into sulfuric acid aerosol. The large perturbation of the background aerosol caused an increase in temperature in the lower stratosphere of 2-3 K. Even though stratospheric winds climatological]y tend to hinder the air mixing between the two hemispheres, observations have shown that a large part of the SO2 emitted by Mt. Pinatubo have been transported from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. We simulate the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 global climate model, coupled to the aerosol module GOCART and the stratospheric chemistry module StratChem, to investigate the influence of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on the stratospheric transport pattern. We perform two ensembles of simulations: the first ensemble consists of runs without coupling between aerosol and radiation. In these simulations the plume of aerosols is treated as a passive tracer and the atmosphere is unperturbed. In the second ensemble of simulations aerosols and radiation are coupled. We show that the set of runs with interactive aerosol produces a larger cross-equatorial transport of the Pinatubo cloud. In our simulations the local heating perturbation caused by the sudden injection of volcanic aerosol changes the pattern of the stratospheric winds causing more intrusion of air from the Northern into the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, we perform simulations changing the injection height of the cloud, and study the transport of the plume resulting from the different scenarios. Comparisons of model results with SAGE II and AVHRR satellite observations will be shown.

A preliminary experiment for the long-term regional reanalysis over Japan assimilating conventional observations with NHM-LETKF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukui, Shin; Iwasaki, Toshiki; Saito, Kazuo; Seko, Hiromu; Kunii, Masaru

2016-04-01

Several long-term global reanalyses have been produced by major operational centres and have contributed to the advance of weather and climate researches considerably. Although the horizontal resolutions of these global reanalyses are getting higher partly due to the development of computing technology, they are still too coarse to reproduce local circulations and precipitation realistically. To solve this problem, dynamical downscaling is often employed. However, the forcing from lateral boundaries only cannot necessarily control the inner fields especially in long-term dynamical downscaling. Regional reanalysis is expected to overcome the difficulty. To maintain the long-term consistency of the analysis quality, it is better to assimilate only the conventional observations that are available in long period. To confirm the effectiveness of the regional reanalysis, some assimilation experiments are performed. In the experiments, only conventional observations (SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, TEMP, PILOT, TC-Bogus) are assimilated with the NHM-LETKF system, which consists of the nonhydrostatic model (NHM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). The horizontal resolution is 25 km and the domain covers Japan and its surroundings. Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) is adopted as the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the NHM-LETKF forecast-analysis cycles. The ensemble size is 10. The experimental period is August 2014 as a representative of warm season for the region. The results are verified against the JMA's operational Meso-scale Analysis, which is produced with assimilating observation data including various remote sensing observations using a 4D-Var scheme, and compared with those of the simple dynamical downscaling experiment without data assimilation. Effects of implementation of lateral boundary perturbations derived from an EOF analysis of JRA-55 over the targeted domain are also examined. The comparison proposes that the assimilation system can reproduce more accurate fields than dynamical downscaling. The implementation of the lateral boundary perturbations implies that the perturbations contribute to providing more appropriate ensemble spreads, though the perturbations are not necessarily consistent to those of the inner fields given by NHM-LETKF.

A probabilistic verification score for contours demonstrated with idealized ice-edge forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goessling, Helge; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

We introduce a probabilistic verification score for ensemble-based forecasts of contours: the Spatial Probability Score (SPS). Defined as the spatial integral of local (Half) Brier Scores, the SPS can be considered the spatial analog of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Applying the SPS to idealized seasonal ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice edge in a global coupled climate model, we demonstrate that the SPS responds properly to ensemble size, bias, and spread. When applied to individual forecasts or ensemble means (or quantiles), the SPS is reduced to the 'volume' of mismatch, in case of the ice edge corresponding to the Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE).

Quantifying Nucleic Acid Ensembles with X-ray Scattering Interferometry.

PubMed

Shi, Xuesong; Bonilla, Steve; Herschlag, Daniel; Harbury, Pehr

2015-01-01

The conformational ensemble of a macromolecule is the complete description of the macromolecule's solution structures and can reveal important aspects of macromolecular folding, recognition, and function. However, most experimental approaches determine an average or predominant structure, or follow transitions between states that each can only be described by an average structure. Ensembles have been extremely difficult to experimentally characterize. We present the unique advantages and capabilities of a new biophysical technique, X-ray scattering interferometry (XSI), for probing and quantifying structural ensembles. XSI measures the interference of scattered waves from two heavy metal probes attached site specifically to a macromolecule. A Fourier transform of the interference pattern gives the fractional abundance of different probe separations directly representing the multiple conformation states populated by the macromolecule. These probe-probe distance distributions can then be used to define the structural ensemble of the macromolecule. XSI provides accurate, calibrated distance in a model-independent fashion with angstrom scale sensitivity in distances. XSI data can be compared in a straightforward manner to atomic coordinates determined experimentally or predicted by molecular dynamics simulations. We describe the conceptual framework for XSI and provide a detailed protocol for carrying out an XSI experiment. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the calibration of a wind forecast ensemble for energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heppelmann, Tobias; Ben Bouallegue, Zied; Theis, Susanne

2015-04-01

In the German research project EWeLiNE, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) are collaborating with three German Transmission System Operators (TSO) in order to provide the TSOs with improved probabilistic power forecasts. Probabilistic power forecasts are derived from probabilistic weather forecasts, themselves derived from ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Since the considered raw ensemble wind forecasts suffer from underdispersiveness and bias, calibration methods are developed for the correction of the model bias and the ensemble spread bias. The overall aim is to improve the ensemble forecasts such that the uncertainty of the possible weather deployment is depicted by the ensemble spread from the first forecast hours. Additionally, the ensemble members after calibration should remain physically consistent scenarios. We focus on probabilistic hourly wind forecasts with horizon of 21 h delivered by the convection permitting high-resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS which has become operational in 2012 at DWD. The ensemble consists of 20 ensemble members driven by four different global models. The model area includes whole Germany and parts of Central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical resolution of 50 model levels. For verification we use wind mast measurements around 100 m height that corresponds to the hub height of wind energy plants that belong to wind farms within the model area. Calibration of the ensemble forecasts can be performed by different statistical methods applied to the raw ensemble output. Here, we explore local bivariate Ensemble Model Output Statistics at individual sites and quantile regression with different predictors. Applying different methods, we already show an improvement of ensemble wind forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS for energy applications. In addition, an ensemble copula coupling approach transfers the time-dependencies of the raw ensemble to the calibrated ensemble. The calibrated wind forecasts are evaluated first with univariate probabilistic scores and additionally with diagnostics of wind ramps in order to assess the time-consistency of the calibrated ensemble members.

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights.

Modeling the intense 2012-2013 dense water formation event in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea: Evaluation with an ensemble simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldman, Robin; Somot, Samuel; Herrmann, Marine; Bosse, Anthony; Caniaux, Guy; Estournel, Claude; Houpert, Loic; Prieur, Louis; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre

2017-02-01

The northwestern Mediterranean Sea is a well-observed ocean deep convection site. Winter 2012-2013 was an intense and intensely documented dense water formation (DWF) event. We evaluate this DWF event in an ensemble configuration of the regional ocean model NEMOMED12. We then assess for the first time the impact of ocean intrinsic variability on DWF with a novel perturbed initial state ensemble method. Finally, we identify the main physical mechanisms driving water mass transformations. NEMOMED12 reproduces accurately the deep convection chronology between late January and March, its location off the Gulf of Lions although with a southward shift and its magnitude. It fails to reproduce the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters salinification and warming, consistently with too strong a surface heat loss. The Ocean Intrinsic Variability modulates half of the DWF area, especially in the open-sea where the bathymetry slope is low. It modulates marginally (3-5%) the integrated DWF rate, but its increase with time suggests its impact could be larger at interannual timescales. We conclude that ensemble frameworks are necessary to evaluate accurately numerical simulations of DWF. Each phase of DWF has distinct diapycnal and thermohaline regimes: during preconditioning, the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation is driven by exchanges with the Algerian basin. During the intense mixing phase, surface heat fluxes trigger deep convection and internal mixing largely determines the resulting deep water properties. During restratification, lateral exchanges and internal mixing are enhanced. Finally, isopycnal mixing was shown to play a large role in water mass transformations during the preconditioning and restratification phases.

Efficient and Unbiased Sampling of Biomolecular Systems in the Canonical Ensemble: A Review of Self-Guided Langevin Dynamics

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiongwu; Damjanovic, Ana; Brooks, Bernard R.

2013-01-01

This review provides a comprehensive description of the self-guided Langevin dynamics (SGLD) and the self-guided molecular dynamics (SGMD) methods and their applications. Example systems are included to provide guidance on optimal application of these methods in simulation studies. SGMD/SGLD has enhanced ability to overcome energy barriers and accelerate rare events to affordable time scales. It has been demonstrated that with moderate parameters, SGLD can routinely cross energy barriers of 20 kT at a rate that molecular dynamics (MD) or Langevin dynamics (LD) crosses 10 kT barriers. The core of these methods is the use of local averages of forces and momenta in a direct manner that can preserve the canonical ensemble. The use of such local averages results in methods where low frequency motion “borrows” energy from high frequency degrees of freedom when a barrier is approached and then returns that excess energy after a barrier is crossed. This self-guiding effect also results in an accelerated diffusion to enhance conformational sampling efficiency. The resulting ensemble with SGLD deviates in a small way from the canonical ensemble, and that deviation can be corrected with either an on-the-fly or a post processing reweighting procedure that provides an excellent canonical ensemble for systems with a limited number of accelerated degrees of freedom. Since reweighting procedures are generally not size extensive, a newer method, SGLDfp, uses local averages of both momenta and forces to preserve the ensemble without reweighting. The SGLDfp approach is size extensive and can be used to accelerate low frequency motion in large systems, or in systems with explicit solvent where solvent diffusion is also to be enhanced. Since these methods are direct and straightforward, they can be used in conjunction with many other sampling methods or free energy methods by simply replacing the integration of degrees of freedom that are normally sampled by MD or LD. PMID:23913991

Distinguishing high and low flow domains in urban drainage systems 2 days ahead using numerical weather prediction ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courdent, Vianney; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2018-01-01

Precipitation constitutes a major contribution to the flow in urban storm- and wastewater systems. Forecasts of the anticipated runoff flows, created from radar extrapolation and/or numerical weather predictions, can potentially be used to optimize operation in both wet and dry weather periods. However, flow forecasts are inevitably uncertain and their use will ultimately require a trade-off between the value of knowing what will happen in the future and the probability and consequence of being wrong. In this study we examine how ensemble forecasts from the HIRLAM-DMI-S05 numerical weather prediction (NWP) model subject to three different ensemble post-processing approaches can be used to forecast flow exceedance in a combined sewer for a wide range of ratios between the probability of detection (POD) and the probability of false detection (POFD). We use a hydrological rainfall-runoff model to transform the forecasted rainfall into forecasted flow series and evaluate three different approaches to establishing the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram of the forecast, which is a plot of POD against POFD for each fraction of concordant ensemble members and can be used to select the weight of evidence that matches the desired trade-off between POD and POFD. In the first approach, the rainfall input to the model is calculated for each of 25 ensemble members as a weighted average of rainfall from the NWP cells over the catchment where the weights are proportional to the areal intersection between the catchment and the NWP cells. In the second approach, a total of 2825 flow ensembles are generated using rainfall input from the neighbouring NWP cells up to approximately 6 cells in all directions from the catchment. In the third approach, the first approach is extended spatially by successively increasing the area covered and for each spatial increase and each time step selecting only the cell with the highest intensity resulting in a total of 175 ensemble members. While the first and second approaches have the disadvantage of not covering the full range of the ROC diagram and being computationally heavy, respectively, the third approach leads to both a broad coverage of the ROC diagram range at a relatively low computational cost. A broad coverage of the ROC diagram offers a larger selection of prediction skill to choose from to best match to the prediction purpose. The study distinguishes itself from earlier research in being the first application to urban hydrology, with fast runoff and small catchments that are highly sensitive to local extremes. Furthermore, no earlier reference has been found on the highly efficient third approach using only neighbouring cells with the highest threat to expand the range of the ROC diagram. This study provides an efficient and robust approach to using ensemble rainfall forecasts affected by bias and misplacement errors for predicting flow threshold exceedance in urban drainage systems.

A Method of Successive Corrections of the Control Subspace in the Reduced-Order Variational Data Assimilation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

Evensen, G., 2003: The ensemble Kalman filter : Theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dyn., 53, 343–357, doi:10.1007/s10236-003...0036-9. ——, 2006: Data Assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman Filter . Springer, 288 pp. Fang, F., C. C. Pain, I. M. Navon, G. J. Gorman, M. D. Piggott, P. A...E. J. Kostelich, M. Corazza, E. Kalnay, and D. J. Patil, 2004: A local ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation. Tellus, 56A, 415–428

Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

2017-12-01

A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

Impact of Representing Model Error in a Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutty, Govindan; Muraleedharan, Rohit; Kesarkar, Amit P.

2018-03-01

Uncertainties in the numerical weather prediction models are generally not well-represented in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) systems. The performance of an ensemble-based DA system becomes suboptimal, if the sources of error are undersampled in the forecast system. The present study examines the effect of accounting for model error treatments in the hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter—three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA system (hybrid) in the track forecast of two tropical cyclones viz. Hudhud and Thane, formed over the Bay of Bengal, using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model. We investigated the effect of two types of model error treatment schemes and their combination on the hybrid DA system; (i) multiphysics approach, which uses different combination of cumulus, microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes, (ii) stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, which perturbs the horizontal wind and potential temperature tendencies, (iii) a combination of both multiphysics and SKEB scheme. Substantial improvements are noticed in the track positions of both the cyclones, when flow-dependent ensemble covariance is used in 3DVAR framework. Explicit model error representation is found to be beneficial in treating the underdispersive ensembles. Among the model error schemes used in this study, a combination of multiphysics and SKEB schemes has outperformed the other two schemes with improved track forecast for both the tropical cyclones.

Soil moisture estimation by assimilating L-band microwave brightness temperature with geostatistics and observation localization.

PubMed

Han, Xujun; Li, Xin; Rigon, Riccardo; Jin, Rui; Endrizzi, Stefano

2015-01-01

The observation could be used to reduce the model uncertainties with data assimilation. If the observation cannot cover the whole model area due to spatial availability or instrument ability, how to do data assimilation at locations not covered by observation? Two commonly used strategies were firstly described: One is covariance localization (CL); the other is observation localization (OL). Compared with CL, OL is easy to parallelize and more efficient for large-scale analysis. This paper evaluated OL in soil moisture profile characterizations, in which the geostatistical semivariogram was used to fit the spatial correlated characteristics of synthetic L-Band microwave brightness temperature measurement. The fitted semivariogram model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter algorithm are combined together to weight and assimilate the observations within a local region surrounding the grid cell of land surface model to be analyzed. Six scenarios were compared: 1_Obs with one nearest observation assimilated, 5_Obs with no more than five nearest local observations assimilated, and 9_Obs with no more than nine nearest local observations assimilated. The scenarios with no more than 16, 25, and 36 local observations were also compared. From the results we can conclude that more local observations involved in assimilation will improve estimations with an upper bound of 9 observations in this case. This study demonstrates the potentials of geostatistical correlation representation in OL to improve data assimilation of catchment scale soil moisture using synthetic L-band microwave brightness temperature, which cannot cover the study area fully in space due to vegetation effects.

Soil Moisture Estimation by Assimilating L-Band Microwave Brightness Temperature with Geostatistics and Observation Localization

PubMed Central

Han, Xujun; Li, Xin; Rigon, Riccardo; Jin, Rui; Endrizzi, Stefano

2015-01-01

The observation could be used to reduce the model uncertainties with data assimilation. If the observation cannot cover the whole model area due to spatial availability or instrument ability, how to do data assimilation at locations not covered by observation? Two commonly used strategies were firstly described: One is covariance localization (CL); the other is observation localization (OL). Compared with CL, OL is easy to parallelize and more efficient for large-scale analysis. This paper evaluated OL in soil moisture profile characterizations, in which the geostatistical semivariogram was used to fit the spatial correlated characteristics of synthetic L-Band microwave brightness temperature measurement. The fitted semivariogram model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter algorithm are combined together to weight and assimilate the observations within a local region surrounding the grid cell of land surface model to be analyzed. Six scenarios were compared: 1_Obs with one nearest observation assimilated, 5_Obs with no more than five nearest local observations assimilated, and 9_Obs with no more than nine nearest local observations assimilated. The scenarios with no more than 16, 25, and 36 local observations were also compared. From the results we can conclude that more local observations involved in assimilation will improve estimations with an upper bound of 9 observations in this case. This study demonstrates the potentials of geostatistical correlation representation in OL to improve data assimilation of catchment scale soil moisture using synthetic L-band microwave brightness temperature, which cannot cover the study area fully in space due to vegetation effects. PMID:25635771

Distinct cognitive mechanisms involved in the processing of single objects and object ensembles

PubMed Central

Cant, Jonathan S.; Sun, Sol Z.; Xu, Yaoda

2015-01-01

Behavioral research has demonstrated that the shape and texture of single objects can be processed independently. Similarly, neuroimaging results have shown that an object's shape and texture are processed in distinct brain regions with shape in the lateral occipital area and texture in parahippocampal cortex. Meanwhile, objects are not always seen in isolation and are often grouped together as an ensemble. We recently showed that the processing of ensembles also involves parahippocampal cortex and that the shape and texture of ensemble elements are processed together within this region. These neural data suggest that the independence seen between shape and texture in single-object perception would not be observed in object-ensemble perception. Here we tested this prediction by examining whether observers could attend to the shape of ensemble elements while ignoring changes in an unattended texture feature and vice versa. Across six behavioral experiments, we replicated previous findings of independence between shape and texture in single-object perception. In contrast, we observed that changes in an unattended ensemble feature negatively impacted the processing of an attended ensemble feature only when ensemble features were attended globally. When they were attended locally, thereby making ensemble processing similar to single-object processing, interference was abolished. Overall, these findings confirm previous neuroimaging results and suggest that distinct cognitive mechanisms may be involved in single-object and object-ensemble perception. Additionally, they show that the scope of visual attention plays a critical role in determining which type of object processing (ensemble or single object) is engaged by the visual system. PMID:26360156

Application Bayesian Model Averaging method for ensemble system for Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzikowski, Jakub; Czerwinska, Agnieszka

2014-05-01

The aim of the project is to evaluate methods for generating numerical ensemble weather prediction using a meteorological data from The Weather Research & Forecasting Model and calibrating this data by means of Bayesian Model Averaging (WRF BMA) approach. We are constructing height resolution short range ensemble forecasts using meteorological data (temperature) generated by nine WRF's models. WRF models have 35 vertical levels and 2.5 km x 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The main emphasis is that the used ensemble members has a different parameterization of the physical phenomena occurring in the boundary layer. To calibrate an ensemble forecast we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. The BMA predictive Probability Density Function (PDF) is a weighted average of predictive PDFs associated with each individual ensemble member, with weights that reflect the member's relative skill. For test we chose a case with heat wave and convective weather conditions in Poland area from 23th July to 1st August 2013. From 23th July to 29th July 2013 temperature oscillated below or above 30 Celsius degree in many meteorology stations and new temperature records were added. During this time the growth of the hospitalized patients with cardiovascular system problems was registered. On 29th July 2013 an advection of moist tropical air masses was recorded in the area of Poland causes strong convection event with mesoscale convection system (MCS). MCS caused local flooding, damage to the transport infrastructure, destroyed buildings, trees and injuries and direct threat of life. Comparison of the meteorological data from ensemble system with the data recorded on 74 weather stations localized in Poland is made. We prepare a set of the model - observations pairs. Then, the obtained data from single ensemble members and median from WRF BMA system are evaluated on the basis of the deterministic statistical error Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE). To evaluation probabilistic data The Brier Score (BS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) were used. Finally comparison between BMA calibrated data and data from ensemble members will be displayed.

Multiple-instance ensemble learning for hyperspectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ergul, Ugur; Bilgin, Gokhan

2017-10-01

An ensemble framework for multiple-instance (MI) learning (MIL) is introduced for use in hyperspectral images (HSIs) by inspiring the bagging (bootstrap aggregation) method in ensemble learning. Ensemble-based bagging is performed by a small percentage of training samples, and MI bags are formed by a local windowing process with variable window sizes on selected instances. In addition to bootstrap aggregation, random subspace is another method used to diversify base classifiers. The proposed method is implemented using four MIL classification algorithms. The classifier model learning phase is carried out with MI bags, and the estimation phase is performed over single-test instances. In the experimental part of the study, two different HSIs that have ground-truth information are used, and comparative results are demonstrated with state-of-the-art classification methods. In general, the MI ensemble approach produces more compact results in terms of both diversity and error compared to equipollent non-MIL algorithms.

Potentialities of ensemble strategies for flood forecasting over the Milano urban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Homar, Víctor; Romero, Romu; Lombardi, Gabriele; Mancini, Marco

2016-08-01

Analysis of ensemble forecasting strategies, which can provide a tangible backing for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean region, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international HyMeX programme. Here, we examine two severe hydrometeorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area and for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed. Indeed, flood damage have exponentially increased during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. First, we examine how land-use changes due to urban development have altered the hydrological response to intense rainfalls. Second, we test a flood forecasting system which comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. Accurate forecasts of deep moist convection and extreme precipitation are difficult to be predicted due to uncertainties arising from the numeric weather prediction (NWP) physical parameterizations and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the atmospheric state; however, two hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have been designed to explicitly cope with uncertainties in the initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/LBCs) and physical parameterizations of the NWP model. No substantial differences in skill have been found between both ensemble strategies when considering an enhanced diversity of IC/LBCs for the perturbed initial conditions ensemble. Furthermore, no additional benefits have been found by considering more frequent LBCs in a mixed physics ensemble, as ensemble spread seems to be reduced. These findings could help to design the most appropriate ensemble strategies before these hydrometeorological extremes, given the computational cost of running such advanced HEPSs for operational purposes.

Subsurface characterization with localized ensemble Kalman filter employing adaptive thresholding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delijani, Ebrahim Biniaz; Pishvaie, Mahmoud Reza; Boozarjomehry, Ramin Bozorgmehry

2014-07-01

Ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF, as a Monte Carlo sequential data assimilation method has emerged promisingly for subsurface media characterization during past decade. Due to high computational cost of large ensemble size, EnKF is limited to small ensemble set in practice. This results in appearance of spurious correlation in covariance structure leading to incorrect or probable divergence of updated realizations. In this paper, a universal/adaptive thresholding method is presented to remove and/or mitigate spurious correlation problem in the forecast covariance matrix. This method is, then, extended to regularize Kalman gain directly. Four different thresholding functions have been considered to threshold forecast covariance and gain matrices. These include hard, soft, lasso and Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation (SCAD) functions. Three benchmarks are used to evaluate the performances of these methods. These benchmarks include a small 1D linear model and two 2D water flooding (in petroleum reservoirs) cases whose levels of heterogeneity/nonlinearity are different. It should be noted that beside the adaptive thresholding, the standard distance dependant localization and bootstrap Kalman gain are also implemented for comparison purposes. We assessed each setup with different ensemble sets to investigate the sensitivity of each method on ensemble size. The results indicate that thresholding of forecast covariance yields more reliable performance than Kalman gain. Among thresholding function, SCAD is more robust for both covariance and gain estimation. Our analyses emphasize that not all assimilation cycles do require thresholding and it should be performed wisely during the early assimilation cycles. The proposed scheme of adaptive thresholding outperforms other methods for subsurface characterization of underlying benchmarks.

A consensual neural network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benediktsson, J. A.; Ersoy, O. K.; Swain, P. H.

1991-01-01

A neural network architecture called a consensual neural network (CNN) is proposed for the classification of data from multiple sources. Its relation to hierarchical and ensemble neural networks is discussed. CNN is based on the statistical consensus theory and uses nonlinearly transformed input data. The input data are transformed several times, and the different transformed data are applied as if they were independent inputs. The independent inputs are classified using stage neural networks and outputs from the stage networks are then weighted and combined to make a decision. Experimental results based on remote-sensing data and geographic data are given.

Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Sara; Zupanski, Dusanka; Hou, Arthur; Zupanski, Milija

2008-01-01

Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.

Controlling the delocalization-localization transition of light via electromagnetically induced transparency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng Jing; Huang Guoxiang; State Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062

2011-05-15

We propose a scheme to realize a transition from delocalization to localization of light waves via electromagnetically induced transparency. The system we suggested is a resonant cold atomic ensemble having N configuration, with a control field consisting of two pairs of laser beams with different cross angles, which produce an electromagnetically induced quasiperiodic waveguide (EIQPW) for the propagation of a signal field. By appropriately tuning the incommensurate rate or relative modulation strength between the two pairs of control-field components, the signal field can exhibit the delocalization-localization transition as it transports inside the atomic ensemble. The delocalization-localization transition point is determinedmore » and the propagation property of the signal field is studied in detail. Our work provides a way of realizing wave localization via atomic coherence, which is quite different from the conventional, off-resonant mechanism-based Aubry-Andre model, and the great controllability of the EIQPW also allows an easy manipulation of the delocalization-localization transition.« less

Transformations of dislocation martensite in tempering secondary-hardening steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorynin, I. V.; Rybin, V. V.; Malyshevskii, V. A.; Semicheva, T. G.; Sherokhina, L. G.

1999-09-01

Analysis of the evolution of the fine structure of secondary-hardening steel in tempering makes it possible to understand the nature of processes that cause changes in the strength and ductility. They are connected with the changes that occur in the solid solution, the ensemble of disperse segregations of the carbide phase, and the dislocation structure of martensite. These transformations are interrelated, and their specific features are determined by the chemical composition of the steel.

Improvement in T2* via Cancellation of Spin Bath Induced Dephasing in Solid-State Spins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauch, Erik; Hart, Connor; Schloss, Jennifer; Turner, Matthew; Barry, John; Walsworth, Ronald L.

2017-04-01

In measurements using ensembles of nitrogen vacancy (NV) centers in diamond, the magnetic field sensitivity can be improved by increasing the NV spin dephasing time, T2*. For NV ensembles, T2* is limited by dephasing arising from variations in the local environment sensed by individual NVs, such as applied magnetic fields, noise induced by other nearby spins, and strain. Here, we describe a systematic study of parameters influencing the NV ensemble T2*, and efforts to mitigate sources of inhomogeneity with demonstrated T2* improvements exceeding one order of magnitude.

Tracking single mRNA molecules in live cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Hyungseok C.; Lee, Byung Hun; Lim, Kiseong; Son, Jae Seok; Song, Minho S.; Park, Hye Yoon

2016-06-01

mRNAs inside cells interact with numerous RNA-binding proteins, microRNAs, and ribosomes that together compose a highly heterogeneous population of messenger ribonucleoprotein (mRNP) particles. Perhaps one of the best ways to investigate the complex regulation of mRNA is to observe individual molecules. Single molecule imaging allows the collection of quantitative and statistical data on subpopulations and transient states that are otherwise obscured by ensemble averaging. In addition, single particle tracking reveals the sequence of events that occur in the formation and remodeling of mRNPs in real time. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art techniques in tagging, delivery, and imaging to track single mRNAs in live cells. We also discuss how these techniques are applied to extract dynamic information on the transcription, transport, localization, and translation of mRNAs. These studies demonstrate how single molecule tracking is transforming the understanding of mRNA regulation in live cells.

Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Targeted Observation Strategies: Proof of Concept Analysis in a Geomagnetic Storm Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostelich, Eric; Durazo, Juan; Mahalov, Alex

2017-11-01

The dynamics of the ionosphere involve complex interactions between the atmosphere, solar wind, cosmic radiation, and Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms arising from solar activity can perturb these dynamics sufficiently to disrupt radio and satellite communications. Efforts to predict ``space weather,'' including ionospheric dynamics, require the development of a data assimilation system that combines observing systems with appropriate forecast models. This talk will outline a proof-of-concept targeted observation strategy, consisting of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, coupled with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model, to select optimal locations where additional observations can be made to improve short-term ionospheric forecasts. Initial results using data and forecasts from the geomagnetic storm of 26-27 September 2011 will be described. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant Number FA9550-15-1-0096) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number DMS-0940314).

Three-dimensional localization of nanoscale battery reactions using soft X-ray tomography.

PubMed

Yu, Young-Sang; Farmand, Maryam; Kim, Chunjoong; Liu, Yijin; Grey, Clare P; Strobridge, Fiona C; Tyliszczak, Tolek; Celestre, Rich; Denes, Peter; Joseph, John; Krishnan, Harinarayan; Maia, Filipe R N C; Kilcoyne, A L David; Marchesini, Stefano; Leite, Talita Perciano Costa; Warwick, Tony; Padmore, Howard; Cabana, Jordi; Shapiro, David A

2018-03-02

Battery function is determined by the efficiency and reversibility of the electrochemical phase transformations at solid electrodes. The microscopic tools available to study the chemical states of matter with the required spatial resolution and chemical specificity are intrinsically limited when studying complex architectures by their reliance on two-dimensional projections of thick material. Here, we report the development of soft X-ray ptychographic tomography, which resolves chemical states in three dimensions at 11 nm spatial resolution. We study an ensemble of nano-plates of lithium iron phosphate extracted from a battery electrode at 50% state of charge. Using a set of nanoscale tomograms, we quantify the electrochemical state and resolve phase boundaries throughout the volume of individual nanoparticles. These observations reveal multiple reaction points, intra-particle heterogeneity, and size effects that highlight the importance of multi-dimensional analytical tools in providing novel insight to the design of the next generation of high-performance devices.

Coherence rephasing combined with spin-wave storage using chirped control pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demeter, Gabor

2014-06-01

Photon-echo based optical quantum memory schemes often employ intermediate steps to transform optical coherences to spin coherences for longer storage times. We analyze a scheme that uses three identical chirped control pulses for coherence rephasing in an inhomogeneously broadened ensemble of three-level Λ systems. The pulses induce a cyclic permutation of the atomic populations in the adiabatic regime. Optical coherences created by a signal pulse are stored as spin coherences at an intermediate time interval, and are rephased for echo emission when the ensemble is returned to the initial state. Echo emission during a possible partial rephasing when the medium is inverted can be suppressed with an appropriate choice of control pulse wave vectors. We demonstrate that the scheme works in an optically dense ensemble, despite control pulse distortions during propagation. It integrates conveniently the spin-wave storage step into memory schemes based on a second rephasing of the atomic coherences.

Fast adaptive flat-histogram ensemble to enhance the sampling in large systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shun; Zhou, Xin; Jiang, Yi; Wang, YanTing

2015-09-01

An efficient novel algorithm was developed to estimate the Density of States (DOS) for large systems by calculating the ensemble means of an extensive physical variable, such as the potential energy, U, in generalized canonical ensembles to interpolate the interior reverse temperature curve , where S( U) is the logarithm of the DOS. This curve is computed with different accuracies in different energy regions to capture the dependence of the reverse temperature on U without setting prior grid in the U space. By combining with a U-compression transformation, we decrease the computational complexity from O( N 3/2) in the normal Wang Landau type method to O( N 1/2) in the current algorithm, as the degrees of freedom of system N. The efficiency of the algorithm is demonstrated by applying to Lennard Jones fluids with various N, along with its ability to find different macroscopic states, including metastable states.

The Contribution of Object Shape and Surface Properties to Object Ensemble Representation in Anterior-medial Ventral Visual Cortex.

PubMed

Cant, Jonathan S; Xu, Yaoda

2017-02-01

Our visual system can extract summary statistics from large collections of objects without forming detailed representations of the individual objects in the ensemble. In a region in ventral visual cortex encompassing the collateral sulcus and the parahippocampal gyrus and overlapping extensively with the scene-selective parahippocampal place area (PPA), we have previously reported fMRI adaptation to object ensembles when ensemble statistics repeated, even when local image features differed across images (e.g., two different images of the same strawberry pile). We additionally showed that this ensemble representation is similar to (but still distinct from) how visual texture patterns are processed in this region and is not explained by appealing to differences in the color of the elements that make up the ensemble. To further explore the nature of ensemble representation in this brain region, here we used PPA as our ROI and investigated in detail how the shape and surface properties (i.e., both texture and color) of the individual objects constituting an ensemble affect the ensemble representation in anterior-medial ventral visual cortex. We photographed object ensembles of stone beads that varied in shape and surface properties. A given ensemble always contained beads of the same shape and surface properties (e.g., an ensemble of star-shaped rose quartz beads). A change to the shape and/or surface properties of all the beads in an ensemble resulted in a significant release from adaptation in PPA compared with conditions in which no ensemble feature changed. In contrast, in the object-sensitive lateral occipital area (LO), we only observed a significant release from adaptation when the shape of the ensemble elements varied, and found no significant results in additional scene-sensitive regions, namely, the retrosplenial complex and occipital place area. Together, these results demonstrate that the shape and surface properties of the individual objects comprising an ensemble both contribute significantly to object ensemble representation in anterior-medial ventral visual cortex and further demonstrate a functional dissociation between object- (LO) and scene-selective (PPA) visual cortical regions and within the broader scene-processing network itself.

Using the fast fourier transform in binding free energy calculations.

PubMed

Nguyen, Trung Hai; Zhou, Huan-Xiang; Minh, David D L

2018-04-30

According to implicit ligand theory, the standard binding free energy is an exponential average of the binding potential of mean force (BPMF), an exponential average of the interaction energy between the unbound ligand ensemble and a rigid receptor. Here, we use the fast Fourier transform (FFT) to efficiently evaluate BPMFs by calculating interaction energies when rigid ligand configurations from the unbound ensemble are discretely translated across rigid receptor conformations. Results for standard binding free energies between T4 lysozyme and 141 small organic molecules are in good agreement with previous alchemical calculations based on (1) a flexible complex ( R≈0.9 for 24 systems) and (2) flexible ligand with multiple rigid receptor configurations ( R≈0.8 for 141 systems). While the FFT is routinely used for molecular docking, to our knowledge this is the first time that the algorithm has been used for rigorous binding free energy calculations. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Model Parameter Estimation Using Ensemble Data Assimilation: A Case with the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model NICAM and the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsuki, Shunji; Terasaki, Koji; Yashiro, Hasashi; Tomita, Hirofumi; Satoh, Masaki; Miyoshi, Takemasa

2017-04-01

This study aims to improve precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through effective use of satellite-derived precipitation data. Kotsuki et al. (2016, JGR-A) successfully improved the precipitation forecasts by assimilating the Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA)'s Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) data into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) at 112-km horizontal resolution. Kotsuki et al. mitigated the non-Gaussianity of the precipitation variables by the Gaussian transform method for observed and forecasted precipitation using the previous 30-day precipitation data. This study extends the previous study by Kotsuki et al. and explores an online estimation of model parameters using ensemble data assimilation. We choose two globally-uniform parameters, one is the cloud-to-rain auto-conversion parameter of the Berry's scheme for large scale condensation and the other is the relative humidity threshold of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization scheme. We perform the online-estimation of the two model parameters with an ensemble transform Kalman filter by assimilating the GSMaP precipitation data. The estimated parameters improve the analyzed and forecasted mixing ratio in the lower troposphere. Therefore, the parameter estimation would be a useful technique to improve the NWP models and their forecasts. This presentation will include the most recent progress up to the time of the symposium.

Quantum formalism for classical statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterich, C.

2018-06-01

In static classical statistical systems the problem of information transport from a boundary to the bulk finds a simple description in terms of wave functions or density matrices. While the transfer matrix formalism is a type of Heisenberg picture for this problem, we develop here the associated Schrödinger picture that keeps track of the local probabilistic information. The transport of the probabilistic information between neighboring hypersurfaces obeys a linear evolution equation, and therefore the superposition principle for the possible solutions. Operators are associated to local observables, with rules for the computation of expectation values similar to quantum mechanics. We discuss how non-commutativity naturally arises in this setting. Also other features characteristic of quantum mechanics, such as complex structure, change of basis or symmetry transformations, can be found in classical statistics once formulated in terms of wave functions or density matrices. We construct for every quantum system an equivalent classical statistical system, such that time in quantum mechanics corresponds to the location of hypersurfaces in the classical probabilistic ensemble. For suitable choices of local observables in the classical statistical system one can, in principle, compute all expectation values and correlations of observables in the quantum system from the local probabilistic information of the associated classical statistical system. Realizing a static memory material as a quantum simulator for a given quantum system is not a matter of principle, but rather of practical simplicity.

Examining dynamic interactions among experimental factors influencing hydrologic data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Cai, X. M.; Ancell, B. C.; Fan, Y. R.

2017-11-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is recognized as a powerful data assimilation technique that generates an ensemble of model variables through stochastic perturbations of forcing data and observations. However, relatively little guidance exists with regard to the proper specification of the magnitude of the perturbation and the ensemble size, posing a significant challenge in optimally implementing the EnKF. This paper presents a robust data assimilation system (RDAS), in which a multi-factorial design of the EnKF experiments is first proposed for hydrologic ensemble predictions. A multi-way analysis of variance is then used to examine potential interactions among factors affecting the EnKF experiments, achieving optimality of the RDAS with maximized performance of hydrologic predictions. The RDAS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed which is the most representative watershed in China's Three Gorges Reservoir region to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the pairwise interaction between perturbed precipitation and streamflow observations has the most significant impact on the performance of the EnKF system, and their interactions vary dynamically across different settings of the ensemble size and the evapotranspiration perturbation. In addition, the interactions among experimental factors vary greatly in magnitude and direction depending on different statistical metrics for model evaluation including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the Box-Cox transformed root-mean-square error. It is thus necessary to test various evaluation metrics in order to enhance the robustness of hydrologic prediction systems.

Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical postprocessing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically postprocess ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead times ranging from 1 to 240 h. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the postprocessed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Rotating hairy black holes in arbitrary dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erices, Cristián; Martínez, Cristián

2018-01-01

A class of exact rotating black hole solutions of gravity nonminimally coupled to a self-interacting scalar field in arbitrary dimensions is presented. These spacetimes are asymptotically locally anti-de Sitter manifolds and have a Ricci-flat event horizon hiding a curvature singularity at the origin. The scalar field is real and regular everywhere, and its effective mass, coming from the nonminimal coupling with the scalar curvature, saturates the Breitenlohner-Freedman bound for the corresponding spacetime dimension. The rotating black hole is obtained by applying an improper coordinate transformation to the static one. Although both spacetimes are locally equivalent, they are globally different, as it is confirmed by the nonvanishing angular momentum of the rotating black hole. It is found that the mass is bounded from below by the angular momentum, in agreement with the existence of an event horizon. The thermodynamical analysis is carried out in the grand canonical ensemble. The first law is satisfied, and a Smarr formula is exhibited. The thermodynamical local stability of the rotating hairy black holes is established from their Gibbs free energy. However, the global stability analysis establishes that the vacuum spacetime is always preferred over the hairy black hole. Thus, the hairy black hole is likely to decay into the vacuum one for any temperature.

Discriminating strength: a bona fide measure of non-classical correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farace, A.; De Pasquale, A.; Rigovacca, L.; Giovannetti, V.

2014-07-01

A new measure of non-classical correlations is introduced and characterized. It tests the ability of using a state ρ of a composite system AB as a probe for a quantum illumination task (e.g. see Lloyd 2008 Science 321 1463), in which one is asked to remotely discriminate between the two following scenarios: (i) either nothing happens to the probe, or (ii) the subsystem A is transformed via a local unitary {{R}_{A}} whose properties are partially unspecified when producing ρ. This new measure can be seen as the discrete version of the recently introduced interferometric power measure (Girolami et al 2013 e-print arXiv:1309.1472) and, at least for the case in which A is a qubit, it is shown to coincide (up to an irrelevant scaling factor) with the local quantum uncertainty measure of Girolami, Tufarelli and Adesso (2013 Phys. Rev. Lett. 110 240402). Analytical expressions are derived which allow us to formally prove that, within the set of separable configurations, the maximum value of our non-classicality measure is achieved over the set of quantum-classical states (i.e. states ρ which admit a statistical unravelling where each element of the associated ensemble is distinguishable via local measures on B).

Typical event horizons in AdS/CFT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avery, Steven G.; Lowe, David A.

2016-01-01

We consider the construction of local bulk operators in a black hole background dual to a pure state in conformal field theory. The properties of these operators in a microcanonical ensemble are studied. It has been argued in the literature that typical states in such an ensemble contain firewalls, or otherwise singular horizons. We argue this conclusion can be avoided with a proper definition of the interior operators.

Impact of horizontal and vertical localization scales on microwave sounder SAPHIR radiance assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamoorthy, C.; Balaji, C.

2016-05-01

In the present study, the effect of horizontal and vertical localization scales on the assimilation of direct SAPHIR radiances is studied. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been used as a surrogate for the forward radiative calculations. The training input dataset for ANN consists of vertical layers of atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity and other hydrometeor profiles with 6 channel Brightness Temperatures (BTs) as output. The best neural network architecture has been arrived at, by a neuron independence study. Since vertical localization of radiance data requires weighting functions, a ANN has been trained for this purpose. The radiances were ingested into the NWP using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) technique. The horizontal localization has been taken care of, by using a Gaussian localization function centered around the observed coordinates. Similarly, the vertical localization is accomplished by assuming a function which depends on the weighting function of the channel to be assimilated. The effect of both horizontal and vertical localizations has been studied in terms of ensemble spread in the precipitation. Aditionally, improvements in 24 hr forecast from assimilation are also reported.

Computational Amide I Spectroscopy for Refinement of Disordered Peptide Ensembles: Maximum Entropy and Related Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reppert, Michael; Tokmakoff, Andrei

The structural characterization of intrinsically disordered peptides (IDPs) presents a challenging biophysical problem. Extreme heterogeneity and rapid conformational interconversion make traditional methods difficult to interpret. Due to its ultrafast (ps) shutter speed, Amide I vibrational spectroscopy has received considerable interest as a novel technique to probe IDP structure and dynamics. Historically, Amide I spectroscopy has been limited to delivering global secondary structural information. More recently, however, the method has been adapted to study structure at the local level through incorporation of isotope labels into the protein backbone at specific amide bonds. Thanks to the acute sensitivity of Amide I frequencies to local electrostatic interactions-particularly hydrogen bonds-spectroscopic data on isotope labeled residues directly reports on local peptide conformation. Quantitative information can be extracted using electrostatic frequency maps which translate molecular dynamics trajectories into Amide I spectra for comparison with experiment. Here we present our recent efforts in the development of a rigorous approach to incorporating Amide I spectroscopic restraints into refined molecular dynamics structural ensembles using maximum entropy and related approaches. By combining force field predictions with experimental spectroscopic data, we construct refined structural ensembles for a family of short, strongly disordered, elastin-like peptides in aqueous solution.

Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of extreme water levels and their return periods with similar estimates derived from local observations reveals an interesting pattern of match and mismatch. The match is almost perfect in measurement sites where local effects (e.g., wave-induced set-up or local surge in very shallow areas that are not resolved by circulation models) do not contribute to the observed values of water level. There is, however, substantial mismatch between projected and observed extreme values for most of the Estonian coast. The mismatch is largest for sections that are open to high waves and for several bays that are deeply cut into mainland but open for predominant strong wind directions. Detailed quantification of this mismatch eventually makes it possible to develop substantially improved estimates of extreme water levels in sections where local effects considerably contribute into the total water level.

Ensemble Response in Mushroom Body Output Neurons of the Honey Bee Outpaces Spatiotemporal Odor Processing Two Synapses Earlier in the Antennal Lobe

PubMed Central

Strube-Bloss, Martin F.; Herrera-Valdez, Marco A.; Smith, Brian H.

2012-01-01

Neural representations of odors are subject to computations that involve sequentially convergent and divergent anatomical connections across different areas of the brains in both mammals and insects. Furthermore, in both mammals and insects higher order brain areas are connected via feedback connections. In order to understand the transformations and interactions that this connectivity make possible, an ideal experiment would compare neural responses across different, sequential processing levels. Here we present results of recordings from a first order olfactory neuropile – the antennal lobe (AL) – and a higher order multimodal integration and learning center – the mushroom body (MB) – in the honey bee brain. We recorded projection neurons (PN) of the AL and extrinsic neurons (EN) of the MB, which provide the outputs from the two neuropils. Recordings at each level were made in different animals in some experiments and simultaneously in the same animal in others. We presented two odors and their mixture to compare odor response dynamics as well as classification speed and accuracy at each neural processing level. Surprisingly, the EN ensemble significantly starts separating odor stimuli rapidly and before the PN ensemble has reached significant separation. Furthermore the EN ensemble at the MB output reaches a maximum separation of odors between 84–120 ms after odor onset, which is 26 to 133 ms faster than the maximum separation at the AL output ensemble two synapses earlier in processing. It is likely that a subset of very fast PNs, which respond before the ENs, may initiate the rapid EN ensemble response. We suggest therefore that the timing of the EN ensemble activity would allow retroactive integration of its signal into the ongoing computation of the AL via centrifugal feedback. PMID:23209711

Computer algorithms for automated detection and analysis of local Ca2+ releases in spontaneously beating cardiac pacemaker cells

PubMed Central

Kim, Mary S.; Tsutsui, Kenta; Stern, Michael D.; Lakatta, Edward G.; Maltsev, Victor A.

2017-01-01

Local Ca2+ Releases (LCRs) are crucial events involved in cardiac pacemaker cell function. However, specific algorithms for automatic LCR detection and analysis have not been developed in live, spontaneously beating pacemaker cells. In the present study we measured LCRs using a high-speed 2D-camera in spontaneously contracting sinoatrial (SA) node cells isolated from rabbit and guinea pig and developed a new algorithm capable of detecting and analyzing the LCRs spatially in two-dimensions, and in time. Our algorithm tracks points along the midline of the contracting cell. It uses these points as a coordinate system for affine transform, producing a transformed image series where the cell does not contract. Action potential-induced Ca2+ transients and LCRs were thereafter isolated from recording noise by applying a series of spatial filters. The LCR birth and death events were detected by a differential (frame-to-frame) sensitivity algorithm applied to each pixel (cell location). An LCR was detected when its signal changes sufficiently quickly within a sufficiently large area. The LCR is considered to have died when its amplitude decays substantially, or when it merges into the rising whole cell Ca2+ transient. Ultimately, our algorithm provides major LCR parameters such as period, signal mass, duration, and propagation path area. As the LCRs propagate within live cells, the algorithm identifies splitting and merging behaviors, indicating the importance of locally propagating Ca2+-induced-Ca2+-release for the fate of LCRs and for generating a powerful ensemble Ca2+ signal. Thus, our new computer algorithms eliminate motion artifacts and detect 2D local spatiotemporal events from recording noise and global signals. While the algorithms were developed to detect LCRs in sinoatrial nodal cells, they have the potential to be used in other applications in biophysics and cell physiology, for example, to detect Ca2+ wavelets (abortive waves), sparks and embers in muscle cells and Ca2+ puffs and syntillas in neurons. PMID:28683095

Remarks on thermalization in 2D CFT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Jan; Engelhardt, Dalit

2016-12-01

We revisit certain aspects of thermalization in 2D conformal field theory (CFT). In particular, we consider similarities and differences between the time dependence of correlation functions in various states in rational and non-rational CFTs. We also consider the distinction between global and local thermalization and explain how states obtained by acting with a diffeomorphism on the ground state can appear locally thermal, and we review why the time-dependent expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor is generally a poor diagnostic of global thermalization. Since all 2D CFTs have an infinite set of commuting conserved charges, generic initial states might be expected to give rise to a generalized Gibbs ensemble rather than a pure thermal ensemble at late times. We construct the holographic dual of the generalized Gibbs ensemble and show that, to leading order, it is still described by a Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli black hole. The extra conserved charges, while rendering c <1 theories essentially integrable, therefore seem to have little effect on large-c conformal field theories.

Measuring effective temperatures in a generalized Gibbs ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foini, Laura; Gambassi, Andrea; Konik, Robert; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.

2017-05-01

The local physical properties of an isolated quantum statistical system in the stationary state reached long after a quench are generically described by the Gibbs ensemble, which involves only its Hamiltonian and the temperature as a parameter. If the system is instead integrable, additional quantities conserved by the dynamics intervene in the description of the stationary state. The resulting generalized Gibbs ensemble involves a number of temperature-like parameters, the determination of which is practically difficult. Here we argue that in a number of simple models these parameters can be effectively determined by using fluctuation-dissipation relationships between response and correlation functions of natural observables, quantities which are accessible in experiments.

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

Using Chou's pseudo amino acid composition based on approximate entropy and an ensemble of AdaBoost classifiers to predict protein subnuclear location.

PubMed

Jiang, Xiaoying; Wei, Rong; Zhao, Yanjun; Zhang, Tongliang

2008-05-01

The knowledge of subnuclear localization in eukaryotic cells is essential for understanding the life function of nucleus. Developing prediction methods and tools for proteins subnuclear localization become important research fields in protein science for special characteristics in cell nuclear. In this study, a novel approach has been proposed to predict protein subnuclear localization. Sample of protein is represented by Pseudo Amino Acid (PseAA) composition based on approximate entropy (ApEn) concept, which reflects the complexity of time series. A novel ensemble classifier is designed incorporating three AdaBoost classifiers. The base classifier algorithms in three AdaBoost are decision stumps, fuzzy K nearest neighbors classifier, and radial basis-support vector machines, respectively. Different PseAA compositions are used as input data of different AdaBoost classifier in ensemble. Genetic algorithm is used to optimize the dimension and weight factor of PseAA composition. Two datasets often used in published works are used to validate the performance of the proposed approach. The obtained results of Jackknife cross-validation test are higher and more balance than them of other methods on same datasets. The promising results indicate that the proposed approach is effective and practical. It might become a useful tool in protein subnuclear localization. The software in Matlab and supplementary materials are available freely by contacting the corresponding author.

Collective Awareness and the New Institution Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitt, Jeremy; Nowak, Andrzej

The following sections are included: * Introduction * Challenges for Institutions * Collective Awareness * A New Science of Institutions * Complex social ensembles * Interoceptive collective awareness * Planned emergence * Self-organising electronic institutions * Transformative Impact on Society * Social attitudes and processes * Innovative service creation and social innovation * Scientific impact * Big data * Self-regulation * Summary and Conclusions

Typical event horizons in AdS/CFT

DOE PAGES

Avery, Steven G.; Lowe, David A.

2016-01-14

We consider the construction of local bulk operators in a black hole background dual to a pure state in conformal field theory. The properties of these operators in a microcanonical ensemble are studied. It has been argued in the literature that typical states in such an ensemble contain firewalls, or otherwise singular horizons. Here, we argue this conclusion can be avoided with a proper definition of the interior operators.

Decoding of Human Movements Based on Deep Brain Local Field Potentials Using Ensemble Neural Networks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Decoding neural activities related to voluntary and involuntary movements is fundamental to understanding human brain motor circuits and neuromotor disorders and can lead to the development of neuromotor prosthetic devices for neurorehabilitation. This study explores using recorded deep brain local field potentials (LFPs) for robust movement decoding of Parkinson's disease (PD) and Dystonia patients. The LFP data from voluntary movement activities such as left and right hand index finger clicking were recorded from patients who underwent surgeries for implantation of deep brain stimulation electrodes. Movement-related LFP signal features were extracted by computing instantaneous power related to motor response in different neural frequency bands. An innovative neural network ensemble classifier has been proposed and developed for accurate prediction of finger movement and its forthcoming laterality. The ensemble classifier contains three base neural network classifiers, namely, feedforward, radial basis, and probabilistic neural networks. The majority voting rule is used to fuse the decisions of the three base classifiers to generate the final decision of the ensemble classifier. The overall decoding performance reaches a level of agreement (kappa value) at about 0.729 ± 0.16 for decoding movement from the resting state and about 0.671 ± 0.14 for decoding left and right visually cued movements. PMID:29201041

EL_PSSM-RT: DNA-binding residue prediction by integrating ensemble learning with PSSM Relation Transformation.

PubMed

Zhou, Jiyun; Lu, Qin; Xu, Ruifeng; He, Yulan; Wang, Hongpeng

2017-08-29

Prediction of DNA-binding residue is important for understanding the protein-DNA recognition mechanism. Many computational methods have been proposed for the prediction, but most of them do not consider the relationships of evolutionary information between residues. In this paper, we first propose a novel residue encoding method, referred to as the Position Specific Score Matrix (PSSM) Relation Transformation (PSSM-RT), to encode residues by utilizing the relationships of evolutionary information between residues. PDNA-62 and PDNA-224 are used to evaluate PSSM-RT and two existing PSSM encoding methods by five-fold cross-validation. Performance evaluations indicate that PSSM-RT is more effective than previous methods. This validates the point that the relationship of evolutionary information between residues is indeed useful in DNA-binding residue prediction. An ensemble learning classifier (EL_PSSM-RT) is also proposed by combining ensemble learning model and PSSM-RT to better handle the imbalance between binding and non-binding residues in datasets. EL_PSSM-RT is evaluated by five-fold cross-validation using PDNA-62 and PDNA-224 as well as two independent datasets TS-72 and TS-61. Performance comparisons with existing predictors on the four datasets demonstrate that EL_PSSM-RT is the best-performing method among all the predicting methods with improvement between 0.02-0.07 for MCC, 4.18-21.47% for ST and 0.013-0.131 for AUC. Furthermore, we analyze the importance of the pair-relationships extracted by PSSM-RT and the results validates the usefulness of PSSM-RT for encoding DNA-binding residues. We propose a novel prediction method for the prediction of DNA-binding residue with the inclusion of relationship of evolutionary information and ensemble learning. Performance evaluation shows that the relationship of evolutionary information between residues is indeed useful in DNA-binding residue prediction and ensemble learning can be used to address the data imbalance issue between binding and non-binding residues. A web service of EL_PSSM-RT ( http://hlt.hitsz.edu.cn:8080/PSSM-RT_SVM/ ) is provided for free access to the biological research community.

Ensembles of physical states and random quantum circuits on graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamma, Alioscia; Santra, Siddhartha; Zanardi, Paolo

2012-11-01

In this paper we continue and extend the investigations of the ensembles of random physical states introduced in Hamma [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.109.040502 109, 040502 (2012)]. These ensembles are constructed by finite-length random quantum circuits (RQC) acting on the (hyper)edges of an underlying (hyper)graph structure. The latter encodes for the locality structure associated with finite-time quantum evolutions generated by physical, i.e., local, Hamiltonians. Our goal is to analyze physical properties of typical states in these ensembles; in particular here we focus on proxies of quantum entanglement as purity and α-Renyi entropies. The problem is formulated in terms of matrix elements of superoperators which depend on the graph structure, choice of probability measure over the local unitaries, and circuit length. In the α=2 case these superoperators act on a restricted multiqubit space generated by permutation operators associated to the subsets of vertices of the graph. For permutationally invariant interactions the dynamics can be further restricted to an exponentially smaller subspace. We consider different families of RQCs and study their typical entanglement properties for finite time as well as their asymptotic behavior. We find that area law holds in average and that the volume law is a typical property (that is, it holds in average and the fluctuations around the average are vanishing for the large system) of physical states. The area law arises when the evolution time is O(1) with respect to the size L of the system, while the volume law arises as is typical when the evolution time scales like O(L).

Ensemble Clustering using Semidefinite Programming with Applications

PubMed Central

Singh, Vikas; Mukherjee, Lopamudra; Peng, Jiming; Xu, Jinhui

2011-01-01

In this paper, we study the ensemble clustering problem, where the input is in the form of multiple clustering solutions. The goal of ensemble clustering algorithms is to aggregate the solutions into one solution that maximizes the agreement in the input ensemble. We obtain several new results for this problem. Specifically, we show that the notion of agreement under such circumstances can be better captured using a 2D string encoding rather than a voting strategy, which is common among existing approaches. Our optimization proceeds by first constructing a non-linear objective function which is then transformed into a 0–1 Semidefinite program (SDP) using novel convexification techniques. This model can be subsequently relaxed to a polynomial time solvable SDP. In addition to the theoretical contributions, our experimental results on standard machine learning and synthetic datasets show that this approach leads to improvements not only in terms of the proposed agreement measure but also the existing agreement measures based on voting strategies. In addition, we identify several new application scenarios for this problem. These include combining multiple image segmentations and generating tissue maps from multiple-channel Diffusion Tensor brain images to identify the underlying structure of the brain. PMID:21927539

Ensemble Clustering using Semidefinite Programming with Applications.

PubMed

Singh, Vikas; Mukherjee, Lopamudra; Peng, Jiming; Xu, Jinhui

2010-05-01

In this paper, we study the ensemble clustering problem, where the input is in the form of multiple clustering solutions. The goal of ensemble clustering algorithms is to aggregate the solutions into one solution that maximizes the agreement in the input ensemble. We obtain several new results for this problem. Specifically, we show that the notion of agreement under such circumstances can be better captured using a 2D string encoding rather than a voting strategy, which is common among existing approaches. Our optimization proceeds by first constructing a non-linear objective function which is then transformed into a 0-1 Semidefinite program (SDP) using novel convexification techniques. This model can be subsequently relaxed to a polynomial time solvable SDP. In addition to the theoretical contributions, our experimental results on standard machine learning and synthetic datasets show that this approach leads to improvements not only in terms of the proposed agreement measure but also the existing agreement measures based on voting strategies. In addition, we identify several new application scenarios for this problem. These include combining multiple image segmentations and generating tissue maps from multiple-channel Diffusion Tensor brain images to identify the underlying structure of the brain.

A GLM Post-processor to Adjust Ensemble Forecast Traces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Schaake, J. C.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2011-12-01

The skill of hydrologic ensemble forecasts has improved in the last years through a better understanding of climate variability, better climate forecasts and new data assimilation techniques. Having been extensively utilized for probabilistic water supply forecasting, interest is developing to utilize these forecasts in operational decision making. Hydrologic ensemble forecast members typically have inherent biases in flow timing and volume caused by (1) structural errors in the models used, (2) systematic errors in the data used to calibrate those models, (3) uncertain initial hydrologic conditions, and (4) uncertainties in the forcing datasets. Furthermore, hydrologic models have often not been developed for operational decision points and ensemble forecasts are thus not always available where needed. A statistical post-processor can be used to address these issues. The post-processor should (1) correct for systematic biases in flow timing and volume, (2) preserve the skill of the available raw forecasts, (3) preserve spatial and temporal correlation as well as the uncertainty in the forecasted flow data, (4) produce adjusted forecast ensembles that represent the variability of the observed hydrograph to be predicted, and (5) preserve individual forecast traces as equally likely. The post-processor should also allow for the translation of available ensemble forecasts to hydrologically similar locations where forecasts are not available. This paper introduces an ensemble post-processor (EPP) developed in support of New York City water supply operations. The EPP employs a general linear model (GLM) to (1) adjust available ensemble forecast traces and (2) create new ensembles for (nearby) locations where only historic flow observations are available. The EPP is calibrated by developing daily and aggregated statistical relationships form historical flow observations and model simulations. These are then used in operation to obtain the conditional probability density function (PDF) of the observations to be predicted, thus jointly adjusting individual ensemble members. These steps are executed in a normalized transformed space ('z'-space) to account for the strong non-linearity in the flow observations involved. A data window centered on each calibration date is used to minimize impacts from sampling errors and data noise. Testing on datasets from California and New York suggests that the EPP can successfully minimize biases in ensemble forecasts, while preserving the raw forecast skill in a 'days to weeks' forecast horizon and reproducing the variability of climatology for 'weeks to years' forecast horizons.

The role of ensemble-based statistics in variational assimilation of cloud-affected observations from infrared imagers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hacker, Joshua; Vandenberghe, Francois; Jung, Byoung-Jo; Snyder, Chris

2017-04-01

Effective assimilation of cloud-affected radiance observations from space-borne imagers, with the aim of improving cloud analysis and forecasting, has proven to be difficult. Large observation biases, nonlinear observation operators, and non-Gaussian innovation statistics present many challenges. Ensemble-variational data assimilation (EnVar) systems offer the benefits of flow-dependent background error statistics from an ensemble, and the ability of variational minimization to handle nonlinearity. The specific benefits of ensemble statistics, relative to static background errors more commonly used in variational systems, have not been quantified for the problem of assimilating cloudy radiances. A simple experiment framework is constructed with a regional NWP model and operational variational data assimilation system, to provide the basis understanding the importance of ensemble statistics in cloudy radiance assimilation. Restricting the observations to those corresponding to clouds in the background forecast leads to innovations that are more Gaussian. The number of large innovations is reduced compared to the more general case of all observations, but not eliminated. The Huber norm is investigated to handle the fat tails of the distributions, and allow more observations to be assimilated without the need for strict background checks that eliminate them. Comparing assimilation using only ensemble background error statistics with assimilation using only static background error statistics elucidates the importance of the ensemble statistics. Although the cost functions in both experiments converge to similar values after sufficient outer-loop iterations, the resulting cloud water, ice, and snow content are greater in the ensemble-based analysis. The subsequent forecasts from the ensemble-based analysis also retain more condensed water species, indicating that the local environment is more supportive of clouds. In this presentation we provide details that explain the apparent benefit from using ensembles for cloudy radiance assimilation in an EnVar context.

Using random forests for assistance in the curation of G-protein coupled receptor databases.

PubMed

Shkurin, Aleksei; Vellido, Alfredo

2017-08-18

Biology is experiencing a gradual but fast transformation from a laboratory-centred science towards a data-centred one. As such, it requires robust data engineering and the use of quantitative data analysis methods as part of database curation. This paper focuses on G protein-coupled receptors, a large and heterogeneous super-family of cell membrane proteins of interest to biology in general. One of its families, Class C, is of particular interest to pharmacology and drug design. This family is quite heterogeneous on its own, and the discrimination of its several sub-families is a challenging problem. In the absence of known crystal structure, such discrimination must rely on their primary amino acid sequences. We are interested not as much in achieving maximum sub-family discrimination accuracy using quantitative methods, but in exploring sequence misclassification behavior. Specifically, we are interested in isolating those sequences showing consistent misclassification, that is, sequences that are very often misclassified and almost always to the same wrong sub-family. Random forests are used for this analysis due to their ensemble nature, which makes them naturally suited to gauge the consistency of misclassification. This consistency is here defined through the voting scheme of their base tree classifiers. Detailed consistency results for the random forest ensemble classification were obtained for all receptors and for all data transformations of their unaligned primary sequences. Shortlists of the most consistently misclassified receptors for each subfamily and transformation, as well as an overall shortlist including those cases that were consistently misclassified across transformations, were obtained. The latter should be referred to experts for further investigation as a data curation task. The automatic discrimination of the Class C sub-families of G protein-coupled receptors from their unaligned primary sequences shows clear limits. This study has investigated in some detail the consistency of their misclassification using random forest ensemble classifiers. Different sub-families have been shown to display very different discrimination consistency behaviors. The individual identification of consistently misclassified sequences should provide a tool for quality control to GPCR database curators.

Towards an Australian ensemble streamflow forecasting system for flood prediction and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, J.; David, R. E.; Wang, Q.; Li, M.; Shrestha, D. L.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting in Australia has historically relied on deterministic forecasting models run only when floods are imminent, with considerable forecaster input and interpretation. These now co-existed with a continually available 7-day streamflow forecasting service (also deterministic) aimed at operational water management applications such as environmental flow releases. The 7-day service is not optimised for flood prediction. We describe progress on developing a system for ensemble streamflow forecasting that is suitable for both flood prediction and water management applications. Precipitation uncertainty is handled through post-processing of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output with a Bayesian rainfall post-processor (RPP). The RPP corrects biases, downscales NWP output, and produces reliable ensemble spread. Ensemble precipitation forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in precipitation forecasts is insufficient to reliably describe streamflow forecast uncertainty, particularly at shorter lead-times. We characterise hydrological prediction uncertainty separately with a 4-stage error model. The error model relies on data transformation to ensure residuals are homoscedastic and symmetrically distributed. To ensure streamflow forecasts are accurate and reliable, the residuals are modelled using a mixture-Gaussian distribution with distinct parameters for the rising and falling limbs of the forecast hydrograph. In a case study of the Murray River in south-eastern Australia, we show ensemble predictions of floods generally have lower errors than deterministic forecasting methods. We also discuss some of the challenges in operationalising short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts in Australia, including meeting the needs for accurate predictions across all flow ranges and comparing forecasts generated by event and continuous hydrological models.

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali

2017-08-01

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April-June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013-2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light-to-heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm-moist air into south China by the low-level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30-36 h to 18-24 h to 6-12 h for the cases with large-scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

Reflectance and fast polarization dynamics of GaN/Si nanowire ensemble.

PubMed

Korona, Krzysztof Piotr; Zytkiewicz, Zbigniew R; Sobanska, Marta; Sosada, Florentyna; Dróżdż, Piotr Andrzej; Klosek, Kamil; Tchutchulashvili, Giorgi

2018-06-25

Optical phenomena in high-quality GaN nanowires (NWs) ensemble grown on Si substrate have been studied by reflectance and time-resolved luminescence. Such NWs form a structure that acts as a virtual layer that specifically reflects and polarizes light and can be characterized by an effective refractive index. In fact we have found that the NW ensembles of high NW density (high filling fraction) behave rather like a layer of effective medium described by Maxwell Garnett approximation. Moreover, light extinction and strong depolarization are observed that we assign to scattering and interference of light inside the NW ensemble. The wavelength range of high extinction and depolarization correlates well with transverse localization wavelength estimated for such ensemble of NWs, so we suppose that these effects are due to Anderson localization of light. We also report results of time-resolved measurements of polarization of individual emission centers including free and bound excitons (D0XA, 3.47 eV), inversion domain boundaries (IDB, 3.45eV) and stacking faults (SF, 3.42 eV). The emission of the D0XA and SF lines is polarized perpendicular to GaN c-axis while the 3.45 eV line is polarized along the c-axis what supports hypothesis that this line is emitted from IDBs. Time-dependent depolarization of luminescence is observed during the first 0.1 ns after excitation and is interpreted as the result of interaction of the emission centers with hot particles existing during short time after excitation. . © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Global dynamics of oscillator populations under common noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, W.; Pikovsky, A.; Matias, M. A.; Colet, P.

2012-07-01

Common noise acting on a population of identical oscillators can synchronize them. We develop a description of this process which is not limited to the states close to synchrony, but provides a global picture of the evolution of the ensembles. The theory is based on the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, allowing us to obtain closed stochastic equations for the global variables. We show that at the initial stage, the order parameter grows linearly in time, while at the later stages the convergence to synchrony is exponentially fast. Furthermore, we extend the theory to nonidentical ensembles with the Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies and determine the stationary values of the order parameter in dependence on driving noise and mismatch.

Double-well chimeras in 2D lattice of chaotic bistable elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepelev, I. A.; Bukh, A. V.; Vadivasova, T. E.; Anishchenko, V. S.; Zakharova, A.

2018-01-01

We investigate spatio-temporal dynamics of a 2D ensemble of nonlocally coupled chaotic cubic maps in a bistability regime. In particular, we perform a detailed study on the transition ;coherence - incoherence; for varying coupling strength for a fixed interaction radius. For the 2D ensemble we show the appearance of amplitude and phase chimera states previously reported for 1D ensembles of nonlocally coupled chaotic systems. Moreover, we uncover a novel type of chimera state, double-well chimera, which occurs due to the interplay of the bistability of the local dynamics and the 2D ensemble structure. Additionally, we find double-well chimera behavior for steady states which we call double-well chimera death. A distinguishing feature of chimera patterns observed in the lattice is that they mainly combine clusters of different chimera types: phase, amplitude and double-well chimeras.

Controllable quantum dynamics of inhomogeneous nitrogen-vacancy center ensembles coupled to superconducting resonators

PubMed Central

Song, Wan-lu; Yang, Wan-li; Yin, Zhang-qi; Chen, Chang-yong; Feng, Mang

2016-01-01

We explore controllable quantum dynamics of a hybrid system, which consists of an array of mutually coupled superconducting resonators (SRs) with each containing a nitrogen-vacancy center spin ensemble (NVE) in the presence of inhomogeneous broadening. We focus on a three-site model, which compared with the two-site case, shows more complicated and richer dynamical behavior, and displays a series of damped oscillations under various experimental situations, reflecting the intricate balance and competition between the NVE-SR collective coupling and the adjacent-site photon hopping. Particularly, we find that the inhomogeneous broadening of the spin ensemble can suppress the population transfer between the SR and the local NVE. In this context, although the inhomogeneous broadening of the spin ensemble diminishes entanglement among the NVEs, optimal entanglement, characterized by averaging the lower bound of concurrence, could be achieved through accurately adjusting the tunable parameters. PMID:27627994

Post-processing of multi-model ensemble river discharge forecasts using censored EMOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, Stephan; Lisniak, Dmytro; Klein, Bastian

2014-05-01

When forecasting water levels and river discharge, ensemble weather forecasts are used as meteorological input to hydrologic process models. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the input ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the output ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, statistical post-processing is required in order to achieve calibrated and sharp predictions. Standard post-processing methods such as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) that have their origins in meteorological forecasting are now increasingly being used in hydrologic applications. Here we consider two sub-catchments of River Rhine, for which the forecasting system of the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) uses runoff data that are censored below predefined thresholds. To address this methodological challenge, we develop a censored EMOS method that is tailored to such data. The censored EMOS forecast distribution can be understood as a mixture of a point mass at the censoring threshold and a continuous part based on a truncated normal distribution. Parameter estimates of the censored EMOS model are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over the training dataset. Model fitting on Box-Cox transformed data allows us to take account of the positive skewness of river discharge distributions. In order to achieve realistic forecast scenarios over an entire range of lead-times, there is a need for multivariate extensions. To this end, we smooth the marginal parameter estimates over lead-times. In order to obtain realistic scenarios of discharge evolution over time, the marginal distributions have to be linked with each other. To this end, the multivariate dependence structure can either be adopted from the raw ensemble like in Ensemble Copula Coupling (ECC), or be estimated from observations in a training period. The censored EMOS model has been applied to multi-model ensemble forecasts issued on a daily basis over a period of three years. For the two catchments considered, this resulted in well calibrated and sharp forecast distributions over all lead-times from 1 to 114 h. Training observations tended to be better indicators for the dependence structure than the raw ensemble.

Measuring effective temperatures in a generalized Gibbs ensemble

DOE PAGES

Foini, Laura; Gambassi, Andrea; Konik, Robert; ...

2017-05-11

The local physical properties of an isolated quantum statistical system in the stationary state reached long after a quench are generically described by the Gibbs ensemble, which involves only its Hamiltonian and the temperature as a parameter. Additional quantities conserved by the dynamics intervene in the description of the stationary state, if the system is instead integrable. The resulting generalized Gibbs ensemble involves a number of temperature-like parameters, the determination of which is practically difficult. We argue that in a number of simple models these parameters can be effectively determined by using fluctuation-dissipation relationships between response and correlation functions ofmore » natural observables, quantities which are accessible in experiments.« less

A Technical Analysis Information Fusion Approach for Stock Price Analysis and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

In this paper, we address the problem of technical analysis information fusion in improving stock market index-level prediction. We present an approach for analyzing stock market price behavior based on different categories of technical analysis metrics and a multiple predictive system. Each category of technical analysis measures is used to characterize stock market price movements. The presented predictive system is based on an ensemble of neural networks (NN) coupled with particle swarm intelligence for parameter optimization where each single neural network is trained with a specific category of technical analysis measures. The experimental evaluation on three international stock market indices and three individual stocks show that the presented ensemble-based technical indicators fusion system significantly improves forecasting accuracy in comparison with single NN. Also, it outperforms the classical neural network trained with index-level lagged values and NN trained with stationary wavelet transform details and approximation coefficients. As a result, technical information fusion in NN ensemble architecture helps improving prediction accuracy.

High strength films from oriented, hydrogen-bonded "graphamid" 2D polymer molecular ensembles.

PubMed

Sandoz-Rosado, Emil; Beaudet, Todd D; Andzelm, Jan W; Wetzel, Eric D

2018-02-27

The linear polymer poly(p-phenylene terephthalamide), better known by its tradename Kevlar, is an icon of modern materials science due to its remarkable strength, stiffness, and environmental resistance. Here, we propose a new two-dimensional (2D) polymer, "graphamid", that closely resembles Kevlar in chemical structure, but is mechanically advantaged by virtue of its 2D structure. Using atomistic calculations, we show that graphamid comprises covalently-bonded sheets bridged by a high population of strong intermolecular hydrogen bonds. Molecular and micromechanical calculations predict that these strong intermolecular interactions allow stiff, high strength (6-8 GPa), and tough films from ensembles of finite graphamid molecules. In contrast, traditional 2D materials like graphene have weak intermolecular interactions, leading to ensembles of low strength (0.1-0.5 GPa) and brittle fracture behavior. These results suggest that hydrogen-bonded 2D polymers like graphamid would be transformative in enabling scalable, lightweight, high performance polymer films of unprecedented mechanical performance.

User Guidelines and Best Practices for CASL VUQ Analysis Using Dakota.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adams, Brian M.; Coleman, Kayla; Hooper, Russell

2016-11-01

Sandia's Dakota software (available at http://dakota.sandia.gov) supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically it manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to enhance understanding of risk, improve products, and assess simulation credibility.

Teaching Poetry through Collaborative Art: An Analysis of Multimodal Ensembles for Transformative Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wandera, David B.

2016-01-01

This study is anchored on two positions: that every communication is multimodal and that different modalities within multimodal communication have particular affordances. Written and oral language and other modalities, such as body language and audio/visual media, are interwoven in classroom communication. What might it look like to strategically…

Evaluating gambles using dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, O.; Gell-Mann, M.

2016-02-01

Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but their generality limits predictive power. Expectation value maximizers are defined as rational in economics, but expectation values are only meaningful in the presence of ensembles or in systems with ergodic properties, whereas decision-makers have no access to ensembles, and the variables representing wealth in the usual growth models do not have the relevant ergodic properties. Simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of utility and those of expectations, we propose to evaluate gambles by averaging wealth growth over time. No utility function is needed, but a dynamic must be specified to compute time averages. Linear and logarithmic "utility functions" appear as transformations that generate ergodic observables for purely additive and purely multiplicative dynamics, respectively. We highlight inconsistencies throughout the development of decision theory, whose correction clarifies that our perspective is legitimate. These invalidate a commonly cited argument for bounded utility functions.

Classification of pulmonary pathology from breath sounds using the wavelet packet transform and an extreme learning machine.

PubMed

Palaniappan, Rajkumar; Sundaraj, Kenneth; Sundaraj, Sebastian; Huliraj, N; Revadi, S S

2017-06-08

Auscultation is a medical procedure used for the initial diagnosis and assessment of lung and heart diseases. From this perspective, we propose assessing the performance of the extreme learning machine (ELM) classifiers for the diagnosis of pulmonary pathology using breath sounds. Energy and entropy features were extracted from the breath sound using the wavelet packet transform. The statistical significance of the extracted features was evaluated by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The extracted features were inputted into the ELM classifier. The maximum classification accuracies obtained for the conventional validation (CV) of the energy and entropy features were 97.36% and 98.37%, respectively, whereas the accuracies obtained for the cross validation (CRV) of the energy and entropy features were 96.80% and 97.91%, respectively. In addition, maximum classification accuracies of 98.25% and 99.25% were obtained for the CV and CRV of the ensemble features, respectively. The results indicate that the classification accuracy obtained with the ensemble features was higher than those obtained with the energy and entropy features.

Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

2016-03-01

Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

"Big Data Assimilation" for 30-second-update 100-m-mesh Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyoshi, Takemasa; Lien, Guo-Yuan; Kunii, Masaru; Ruiz, Juan; Maejima, Yasumitsu; Otsuka, Shigenori; Kondo, Keiichi; Seko, Hiromu; Satoh, Shinsuke; Ushio, Tomoo; Bessho, Kotaro; Kamide, Kazumi; Tomita, Hirofumi; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ishikawa, Yutaka

2017-04-01

A typical lifetime of a single cumulonimbus is within an hour, and radar observations often show rapid changes in only a 5-minute period. For precise prediction of such rapidly-changing local severe storms, we have developed what we call a "Big Data Assimilation" (BDA) system that performs 30-second-update data assimilation cycles at 100-m grid spacing. The concept shares that of NOAA's Warn-on-Forecast (WoF), in which rapidly-updated high-resolution NWP will play a central role in issuing severe-storm warnings even only minutes in advance. The 100-m resolution and 30-second update frequency are a leap above typical recent research settings, and it was possible by the fortunate combination of Japan's most advanced supercomputing and sensing technologies: the 10-petaflops K computer and the Phased Array Weather Radar (PAWR). The X-band PAWR is capable of a dense three-dimensional volume scan at 100-m range resolution with 100 elevation angles and 300 azimuth angles, up to 60-km range within 30 seconds. The PAWR data show temporally-smooth evolution of convective rainstorms. This gives us a hope that we may assume the Gaussian error distribution in 30-second forecasts before strong nonlinear dynamics distort the error distribution for rapidly-changing convective storms. With this in mind, we apply the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) that considers flow-dependent error covariance explicitly under the Gaussian-error assumption. The flow-dependence would be particularly important in rapidly-changing convective weather. Using a 100-member ensemble at 100-m resolution, we have tested the Big Data Assimilation system in real-world cases of sudden local rainstorms, and obtained promising results. However, the real-time application is a big challenge, and currently it takes 10 minutes for a cycle. We explore approaches to accelerating the computations, such as using single-precision arrays in the model computation and developing an efficient I/O middleware for passing the large data between model and data assimilation as quickly as possible. In this presentation, we will present the most up-to-date progress of our Big Data Assimilation research.

Modelling dynamics in protein crystal structures by ensemble refinement

PubMed Central

Burnley, B Tom; Afonine, Pavel V; Adams, Paul D; Gros, Piet

2012-01-01

Single-structure models derived from X-ray data do not adequately account for the inherent, functionally important dynamics of protein molecules. We generated ensembles of structures by time-averaged refinement, where local molecular vibrations were sampled by molecular-dynamics (MD) simulation whilst global disorder was partitioned into an underlying overall translation–libration–screw (TLS) model. Modeling of 20 protein datasets at 1.1–3.1 Å resolution reduced cross-validated Rfree values by 0.3–4.9%, indicating that ensemble models fit the X-ray data better than single structures. The ensembles revealed that, while most proteins display a well-ordered core, some proteins exhibit a ‘molten core’ likely supporting functionally important dynamics in ligand binding, enzyme activity and protomer assembly. Order–disorder changes in HIV protease indicate a mechanism of entropy compensation for ordering the catalytic residues upon ligand binding by disordering specific core residues. Thus, ensemble refinement extracts dynamical details from the X-ray data that allow a more comprehensive understanding of structure–dynamics–function relationships. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00311.001 PMID:23251785

Precision bounds for gradient magnetometry with atomic ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apellaniz, Iagoba; Urizar-Lanz, Iñigo; Zimborás, Zoltán; Hyllus, Philipp; Tóth, Géza

2018-05-01

We study gradient magnetometry with an ensemble of atoms with arbitrary spin. We calculate precision bounds for estimating the gradient of the magnetic field based on the quantum Fisher information. For quantum states that are invariant under homogeneous magnetic fields, we need to measure a single observable to estimate the gradient. On the other hand, for states that are sensitive to homogeneous fields, a simultaneous measurement is needed, as the homogeneous field must also be estimated. We prove that for the cases studied in this paper, such a measurement is feasible. We present a method to calculate precision bounds for gradient estimation with a chain of atoms or with two spatially separated atomic ensembles. We also consider a single atomic ensemble with an arbitrary density profile, where the atoms cannot be addressed individually, and which is a very relevant case for experiments. Our model can take into account even correlations between particle positions. While in most of the discussion we consider an ensemble of localized particles that are classical with respect to their spatial degree of freedom, we also discuss the case of gradient metrology with a single Bose-Einstein condensate.

Quantum entanglement at ambient conditions in a macroscopic solid-state spin ensemble.

PubMed

Klimov, Paul V; Falk, Abram L; Christle, David J; Dobrovitski, Viatcheslav V; Awschalom, David D

2015-11-01

Entanglement is a key resource for quantum computers, quantum-communication networks, and high-precision sensors. Macroscopic spin ensembles have been historically important in the development of quantum algorithms for these prospective technologies and remain strong candidates for implementing them today. This strength derives from their long-lived quantum coherence, strong signal, and ability to couple collectively to external degrees of freedom. Nonetheless, preparing ensembles of genuinely entangled spin states has required high magnetic fields and cryogenic temperatures or photochemical reactions. We demonstrate that entanglement can be realized in solid-state spin ensembles at ambient conditions. We use hybrid registers comprising of electron-nuclear spin pairs that are localized at color-center defects in a commercial SiC wafer. We optically initialize 10(3) identical registers in a 40-μm(3) volume (with [Formula: see text] fidelity) and deterministically prepare them into the maximally entangled Bell states (with 0.88 ± 0.07 fidelity). To verify entanglement, we develop a register-specific quantum-state tomography protocol. The entanglement of a macroscopic solid-state spin ensemble at ambient conditions represents an important step toward practical quantum technology.

Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, S.; Avolio, E.; Bellecci, C.; Colacino, M.; Walko, R. L.

2006-03-01

This paper reports preliminary results for a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time in an operational implementation of LEPS, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that form the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12-km horizontal resolution. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecasts, LEPS forecasts are compared to a full Brute Force (BF) ensemble. This ensemble is based on RAMS, has 36 km horizontal resolution and is generated by 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. LEPS and BF results are compared subjectively and by objective scores. Subjective analysis is based on precipitation and probability maps of case studies whereas objective analysis is made by deterministic and probabilistic scores. Scores and maps are calculated by comparing ensemble precipitation forecasts against reports from the Calabria regional raingauge network. Results show that LEPS provided better rainfall predictions than BF for all case studies selected. This strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria for these cases. To further explore the impact of local physiographic features on QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting), LEPS results are also compared with a 6-km horizontal resolution deterministic forecast. Due to local and mesoscale forcing, the high resolution forecast (Hi-Res) has better performance compared to the ensemble mean for rainfall thresholds larger than 10mm but it tends to overestimate precipitation for lower amounts. This yields larger false alarms that have a detrimental effect on objective scores for lower thresholds. To exploit the advantages of a probabilistic forecast compared to a deterministic one, the relation between the ECMWF-EPS 700 hPa geopotential height spread and LEPS performance is analyzed. Results are promising even if additional studies are required.

Cloudy Windows: What GCM Ensembles, Reanalyses and Observations Tell Us About Uncertainty in Greenland's Future Climate and Surface Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusch, D. B.

2016-12-01

Any analysis that wants to use a GCM-based scenario of future climate benefits from knowing how much uncertainty the GCM's inherent variability adds to the development of climate change predictions. This is extra relevant in the polar regions due to the potential of global impacts (e.g., sea level rise) from local (ice sheet) climate changes such as more frequent/intense surface melting. High-resolution, regional-scale models using GCMs for boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios inherit a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We investigate these uncertainties for the Greenland ice sheet using the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Recent simulations are skill-tested against the ERA-Interim reanalysis and AWS observations with results informing future scenarios. We focus on key variables influencing surface melting through decadal climatologies, nonlinear analysis of variability with self-organizing maps (SOMs), regional-scale modeling (Polar WRF), and simple melt models. Relative to the ensemble average, spatially averaged climatological July temperature anomalies over a Greenland ice-sheet/ocean domain are mostly between +/- 0.2 °C. The spatial average hides larger local anomalies of up to +/- 2 °C. The ensemble average itself is 2 °C cooler than ERA-Interim. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. For CESMLE, the SOM patterns summarize the variability of multiple realizations of climate. Changes in pattern frequency by ensemble member show the influence of initial conditions. For example, basic statistical analysis of pattern frequency yields interquartile ranges of 2-4% for individual patterns across the ensemble. In climate terms, this tells us about climate state variability through the range of the ensemble, a potentially significant source of melt-prediction uncertainty. SOMs can also capture the different trajectories of climate due to intramodel variability over time. Polar WRF provides higher resolution regional modeling with improved, polar-centric model physics. Simple melt models allow us to characterize impacts of the upstream uncertainties on estimates of surface melting.

Anomaly transform methods based on total energy and ocean heat content norms for generating ocean dynamic disturbances for ensemble climate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas

2017-08-01

In our study we use the anomaly transform, a special case of ensemble transform method, in which a selected set of initial oceanic anomalies in space, time and variables are defined and orthogonalized. The resulting orthogonal perturbation patterns are designed such that they pick up typical balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between variables. The metric used to set up the eigen problem is taken either as the weighted total energy with its zonal, meridional kinetic and available potential energy terms having equal contributions, or the weighted ocean heat content in which a disturbance is applied only to the initial temperature fields. The choices of a reference state for defining the initial anomalies are such that either perturbations on seasonal timescales and or on interannual timescales are constructed. These project a-priori only the slow modes of the ocean physical processes, such that the disturbances grow mainly in the Western Boundary Currents, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the El Nino Southern Oscillation regions. An additional set of initial conditions is designed to fit in a least square sense data from global ocean reanalysis. Applying the AT produced sets of disturbances to oceanic initial conditions initialized by observations of the MPIOM-ESM coupled model on T63L47/GR15 resolution, four ensemble and one hind-cast experiments were performed. The weighted total energy norm is used to monitor the amplitudes and rates of the fastest growing error modes. The results showed minor dependence of the instabilities or error growth on the selected metric but considerable change due to the magnitude of the scaling amplitudes of the perturbation patterns. In contrast to similar atmospheric applications, we find an energy conversion from kinetic to available potential energy, which suggests a different source of uncertainty generation in the ocean than in the atmosphere mainly associated with changes in the density field.

Thermal density functional theory, ensemble density functional theory, and potential functional theory for warm dense matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pribram-Jones, Aurora

Warm dense matter (WDM) is a high energy phase between solids and plasmas, with characteristics of both. It is present in the centers of giant planets, within the earth's core, and on the path to ignition of inertial confinement fusion. The high temperatures and pressures of warm dense matter lead to complications in its simulation, as both classical and quantum effects must be included. One of the most successful simulation methods is density functional theory-molecular dynamics (DFT-MD). Despite great success in a diverse array of applications, DFT-MD remains computationally expensive and it neglects the explicit temperature dependence of electron-electron interactions known to exist within exact DFT. Finite-temperature density functional theory (FT DFT) is an extension of the wildly successful ground-state DFT formalism via thermal ensembles, broadening its quantum mechanical treatment of electrons to include systems at non-zero temperatures. Exact mathematical conditions have been used to predict the behavior of approximations in limiting conditions and to connect FT DFT to the ground-state theory. An introduction to FT DFT is given within the context of ensemble DFT and the larger field of DFT is discussed for context. Ensemble DFT is used to describe ensembles of ground-state and excited systems. Exact conditions in ensemble DFT and the performance of approximations depend on ensemble weights. Using an inversion method, exact Kohn-Sham ensemble potentials are found and compared to approximations. The symmetry eigenstate Hartree-exchange approximation is in good agreement with exact calculations because of its inclusion of an ensemble derivative discontinuity. Since ensemble weights in FT DFT are temperature-dependent Fermi weights, this insight may help develop approximations well-suited to both ground-state and FT DFT. A novel, highly efficient approach to free energy calculations, finite-temperature potential functional theory, is derived, which has the potential to transform the simulation of warm dense matter. As a semiclassical method, it connects the normally disparate regimes of cold condensed matter physics and hot plasma physics. This orbital-free approach captures the smooth classical density envelope and quantum density oscillations that are both crucial to accurate modeling of materials where temperature and pressure effects are influential.

Ensemble theory for slightly deformable granular matter.

PubMed

Tejada, Ignacio G

2014-09-01

Given a granular system of slightly deformable particles, it is possible to obtain different static and jammed packings subjected to the same macroscopic constraints. These microstates can be compared in a mathematical space defined by the components of the force-moment tensor (i.e. the product of the equivalent stress by the volume of the Voronoi cell). In order to explain the statistical distributions observed there, an athermal ensemble theory can be used. This work proposes a formalism (based on developments of the original theory of Edwards and collaborators) that considers both the internal and the external constraints of the problem. The former give the density of states of the points of this space, and the latter give their statistical weight. The internal constraints are those caused by the intrinsic features of the system (e.g. size distribution, friction, cohesion). They, together with the force-balance condition, determine which the possible local states of equilibrium of a particle are. Under the principle of equal a priori probabilities, and when no other constraints are imposed, it can be assumed that particles are equally likely to be found in any one of these local states of equilibrium. Then a flat sampling over all these local states turns into a non-uniform distribution in the force-moment space that can be represented with density of states functions. Although these functions can be measured, some of their features are explored in this paper. The external constraints are those macroscopic quantities that define the ensemble and are fixed by the protocol. The force-moment, the volume, the elastic potential energy and the stress are some examples of quantities that can be expressed as functions of the force-moment. The associated ensembles are included in the formalism presented here.

An ensemble and single-molecule fluorescence microscopy investigation of phase-separated monolayer films stained with Nile Red.

PubMed

Lu, Yin; Porterfield, Robyn; Thunder, Terri; Paige, Matthew F

2011-01-01

Phase-separated Langmuir-Blodgett monolayer films prepared from mixtures of arachidic acid (C19H39COOH) and perfluorotetradecanoic acid (C13F27COOH) were stained via spin-casting with the polarity sensitive phenoxazine dye Nile Red, and characterized using a combination of ensemble and single-molecule fluorescence microscopy measurements. Ensemble fluorescence microscopy and spectromicroscopy showed that Nile Red preferentially associated with the hydrogenated domains of the phase-separated films, and was strongly fluorescent in these areas of the film. These measurements, in conjunction with single-molecule fluorescence imaging experiments, also indicated that a small sub-population of dye molecules localizes on the perfluorinated regions of the sample, but that this sub-population is spectroscopically indistinguishable from that associated with the hydrogenated domains. The relative importance of selective dye adsorption and local polarity sensitivity of Nile Red for staining applications in phase-separated LB films as well as in cellular environments is discussed in context of the experimental results. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalized Gibbs distribution and energy localization in the semiclassical FPU problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hipolito, Rafael; Danshita, Ippei; Oganesyan, Vadim; Polkovnikov, Anatoli

2011-03-01

We investigate dynamics of the weakly interacting quantum mechanical Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (qFPU) model in the semiclassical limit below the stochasticity threshold. Within this limit we find that initial quantum fluctuations lead to the damping of FPU oscillations and relaxation of the system to a slowly evolving steady state with energy localized within few momentum modes. We find that in large systems this state can be described by the generalized Gibbs ensemble (GGE), with the Lagrange multipliers being very weak functions of time. This ensembles gives accurate description of the instantaneous correlation functions, both quadratic and quartic. Based on these results we conjecture that GGE generically appears as a prethermalized state in weakly non-integrable systems.

Design and experimentation of an empirical multistructure framework for accurate, sharp and reliable hydrological ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiller, G.; Anctil, F.; Roy, R.

2017-09-01

This paper outlines the design and experimentation of an Empirical Multistructure Framework (EMF) for lumped conceptual hydrological modeling. This concept is inspired from modular frameworks, empirical model development, and multimodel applications, and encompasses the overproduce and select paradigm. The EMF concept aims to reduce subjectivity in conceptual hydrological modeling practice and includes model selection in the optimisation steps, reducing initial assumptions on the prior perception of the dominant rainfall-runoff transformation processes. EMF generates thousands of new modeling options from, for now, twelve parent models that share their functional components and parameters. Optimisation resorts to ensemble calibration, ranking and selection of individual child time series based on optimal bias and reliability trade-offs, as well as accuracy and sharpness improvement of the ensemble. Results on 37 snow-dominated Canadian catchments and 20 climatically-diversified American catchments reveal the excellent potential of the EMF in generating new individual model alternatives, with high respective performance values, that may be pooled efficiently into ensembles of seven to sixty constitutive members, with low bias and high accuracy, sharpness, and reliability. A group of 1446 new models is highlighted to offer good potential on other catchments or applications, based on their individual and collective interests. An analysis of the preferred functional components reveals the importance of the production and total flow elements. Overall, results from this research confirm the added value of ensemble and flexible approaches for hydrological applications, especially in uncertain contexts, and open up new modeling possibilities.

Identification of DNA-binding proteins by combining auto-cross covariance transformation and ensemble learning.

PubMed

Liu, Bin; Wang, Shanyi; Dong, Qiwen; Li, Shumin; Liu, Xuan

2016-04-20

DNA-binding proteins play a pivotal role in various intra- and extra-cellular activities ranging from DNA replication to gene expression control. With the rapid development of next generation of sequencing technique, the number of protein sequences is unprecedentedly increasing. Thus it is necessary to develop computational methods to identify the DNA-binding proteins only based on the protein sequence information. In this study, a novel method called iDNA-KACC is presented, which combines the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and the auto-cross covariance transformation. The protein sequences are first converted into profile-based protein representation, and then converted into a series of fixed-length vectors by the auto-cross covariance transformation with Kmer composition. The sequence order effect can be effectively captured by this scheme. These vectors are then fed into Support Vector Machine (SVM) to discriminate the DNA-binding proteins from the non DNA-binding ones. iDNA-KACC achieves an overall accuracy of 75.16% and Matthew correlation coefficient of 0.5 by a rigorous jackknife test. Its performance is further improved by employing an ensemble learning approach, and the improved predictor is called iDNA-KACC-EL. Experimental results on an independent dataset shows that iDNA-KACC-EL outperforms all the other state-of-the-art predictors, indicating that it would be a useful computational tool for DNA binding protein identification. .

Simulating adsorptive expansion of zeolites: application to biomass-derived solutions in contact with silicalite.

PubMed

Santander, Julian E; Tsapatsis, Michael; Auerbach, Scott M

2013-04-16

We have constructed and applied an algorithm to simulate the behavior of zeolite frameworks during liquid adsorption. We applied this approach to compute the adsorption isotherms of furfural-water and hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF)-water mixtures adsorbing in silicalite zeolite at 300 K for comparison with experimental data. We modeled these adsorption processes under two different statistical mechanical ensembles: the grand canonical (V-Nz-μg-T or GC) ensemble keeping volume fixed, and the P-Nz-μg-T (osmotic) ensemble allowing volume to fluctuate. To optimize accuracy and efficiency, we compared pure Monte Carlo (MC) sampling to hybrid MC-molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. For the external furfural-water and HMF-water phases, we assumed the ideal solution approximation and employed a combination of tabulated data and extended ensemble simulations for computing solvation free energies. We found that MC sampling in the V-Nz-μg-T ensemble (i.e., standard GCMC) does a poor job of reproducing both the Henry's law regime and the saturation loadings of these systems. Hybrid MC-MD sampling of the V-Nz-μg-T ensemble, which includes framework vibrations at fixed total volume, provides better results in the Henry's law region, but this approach still does not reproduce experimental saturation loadings. Pure MC sampling of the osmotic ensemble was found to approach experimental saturation loadings more closely, whereas hybrid MC-MD sampling of the osmotic ensemble quantitatively reproduces such loadings because the MC-MD approach naturally allows for locally anisotropic volume changes wherein some pores expand whereas others contract.

Computer-aided classification of breast microcalcification clusters: merging of features from image processing and radiologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Joseph Y.; Gavrielides, Marios A.; Markey, Mia K.; Jesneck, Jonathan L.

2003-05-01

We developed an ensemble classifier for the task of computer-aided diagnosis of breast microcalcification clusters,which are very challenging to characterize for radiologists and computer models alike. The purpose of this study is to help radiologists identify whether suspicious calcification clusters are benign vs. malignant, such that they may potentially recommend fewer unnecessary biopsies for actually benign lesions. The data consists of mammographic features extracted by automated image processing algorithms as well as manually interpreted by radiologists according to a standardized lexicon. We used 292 cases from a publicly available mammography database. From each cases, we extracted 22 image processing features pertaining to lesion morphology, 5 radiologist features also pertaining to morphology, and the patient age. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) models were designed using each of the three data types. Each local model performed poorly; the best was one based upon image processing features which yielded ROC area index AZ of 0.59 +/- 0.03 and partial AZ above 90% sensitivity of 0.08 +/- 0.03. We then developed ensemble models using different combinations of those data types, and these models all improved performance compared to the local models. The final ensemble model was based upon 5 features selected by stepwise LDA from all 28 available features. This ensemble performed with AZ of 0.69 +/- 0.03 and partial AZ of 0.21 +/- 0.04, which was statistically significantly better than the model based on the image processing features alone (p<0.001 and p=0.01 for full and partial AZ respectively). This demonstrated the value of the radiologist-extracted features as a source of information for this task. It also suggested there is potential for improved performance using this ensemble classifier approach to combine different sources of currently available data.

Three-dimensional localization of nanoscale battery reactions using soft X-ray tomography

DOE PAGES

Yu, Young-Sang; Farmand, Maryam; Kim, Chunjoong; ...

2018-03-02

Battery function is determined by the efficiency and reversibility of the electrochemical phase transformations at solid electrodes. The microscopic tools available to study the chemical states of matter with the required spatial resolution and chemical specificity are intrinsically limited when studying complex architectures by their reliance on two-dimensional projections of thick material. Here in this paper, we report the development of soft X-ray ptychographic tomography, which resolves chemical states in three dimensions at 11 nm spatial resolution. We study an ensemble of nano-plates of lithium iron phosphate extracted from a battery electrode at 50% state of charge. Using a setmore » of nanoscale tomograms, we quantify the electrochemical state and resolve phase boundaries throughout the volume of individual nanoparticles. These observations reveal multiple reaction points, intra-particle heterogeneity, and size effects that highlight the importance of multi-dimensional analytical tools in providing novel insight to the design of the next generation of high-performance devices.« less

Three-dimensional localization of nanoscale battery reactions using soft X-ray tomography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Young-Sang; Farmand, Maryam; Kim, Chunjoong

Battery function is determined by the efficiency and reversibility of the electrochemical phase transformations at solid electrodes. The microscopic tools available to study the chemical states of matter with the required spatial resolution and chemical specificity are intrinsically limited when studying complex architectures by their reliance on two-dimensional projections of thick material. Here in this paper, we report the development of soft X-ray ptychographic tomography, which resolves chemical states in three dimensions at 11 nm spatial resolution. We study an ensemble of nano-plates of lithium iron phosphate extracted from a battery electrode at 50% state of charge. Using a setmore » of nanoscale tomograms, we quantify the electrochemical state and resolve phase boundaries throughout the volume of individual nanoparticles. These observations reveal multiple reaction points, intra-particle heterogeneity, and size effects that highlight the importance of multi-dimensional analytical tools in providing novel insight to the design of the next generation of high-performance devices.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maughan, Bret; Zahl, Percy; Sutter, Peter

Switching the magnetic properties of organic semiconductors on a metal surface has thus far largely been limited to molecule-by-molecule tip-induced transformations in scanned probe experiments. Here we demonstrate with molecular resolution that collective control of activated Kondo screening can be achieved in thin-films of the organic semiconductor titanyl phthalocyanine on Cu(110) to obtain tunable concentrations of Kondo impurities. Using low-temperature scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy, we show that a thermally activated molecular distortion dramatically shifts surface–molecule coupling and enables ensemble-level control of Kondo screening in the interfacial spin system. This is accompanied by the formation of a temperature-dependent Abrikosov–Suhl–Kondo resonancemore » in the local density of states of the activated molecules. This enables coverage-dependent control over activation to the Kondo screening state. Finally, our study thus advances the versatility of molecular switching for Kondo physics and opens new avenues for scalable bottom-up tailoring of the electronic structure and magnetic texture of organic semiconductor interfaces at the nanoscale.« less

Energy-dependent topological anti-de Sitter black holes in Gauss-Bonnet Born-Infeld gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendi, S. H.; Behnamifard, H.; Bahrami-Asl, B.

2018-03-01

Employing higher-curvature corrections to Einstein-Maxwell gravity has garnered a great deal of attention motivated by the high-energy regime in the quantum nature of black hole physics. In addition, one may employ gravity's rainbow to encode quantum gravity effects into black hole solutions. In this paper, we regard an energy-dependent static spacetime with various topologies and study its black hole solutions in the context of Gauss-Bonnet Born-Infeld (GB-BI) gravity. We study the thermodynamic properties and examine the first law of thermodynamics. Using a suitable local transformation, we endow the Ricci-flat black hole solutions with a global rotation and study the effects of rotation on thermodynamic quantities. We also investigate thermal stability in a canonical ensemble by calculating the heat capacity. We obtain the effects of various parameters on the horizon radius of stable black holes. Finally, we discuss a second-order phase transition in the extended phase space thermodynamics and investigate the critical behavior.

Distinct Mechanisms for Synchronization and Temporal Patterning of Odor-Encoding Neural Assemblies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, Katrina; Laurent, Gilles

1996-11-01

Stimulus-evoked oscillatory synchronization of neural assemblies and temporal patterns of neuronal activity have been observed in many sensory systems, such as the visual and auditory cortices of mammals or the olfactory system of insects. In the locust olfactory system, single odor puffs cause the immediate formation of odor-specific neural assemblies, defined both by their transient synchronized firing and their progressive transformation over the course of a response. The application of an antagonist of ionotropic γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) receptors to the first olfactory relay neuropil selectively blocked the fast inhibitory synapse between local and projection neurons. This manipulation abolished the synchronization of the odor-coding neural ensembles but did not affect each neuron's temporal response patterns to odors, even when these patterns contained periods of inhibition. Fast GABA-mediated inhibition, therefore, appears to underlie neuronal synchronization but not response tuning in this olfactory system. The selective desynchronization of stimulus-evoked oscillating neural assemblies in vivo is now possible, enabling direct functional tests of their significance for sensation and perception.

Can Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Sets Be Used to Reproduce Flooding Over Large Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul D.; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kettner, Albert J.

2017-10-01

Floods are costly to global economies and can be exceptionally lethal. The ability to produce consistent flood hazard maps over large areas could provide a significant contribution to reducing such losses, as the lack of knowledge concerning flood risk is a major factor in the transformation of river floods into flood disasters. In order to accurately reproduce flooding in river channels and floodplains, high spatial resolution hydrodynamic models are needed. Despite being computationally expensive, recent advances have made their continental to global implementation feasible, although inputs for long-term simulations may require the use of reanalysis meteorological products especially in data-poor regions. We employ a coupled hydrologic/hydrodynamic model cascade forced by the 20CRv2 reanalysis data set and evaluate its ability to reproduce flood inundation area and volume for Australia during the 1973-2012 period. Ensemble simulations using the reanalysis data were performed to account for uncertainty in the meteorology and compared with a validated benchmark simulation. Results show that the reanalysis ensemble capture the inundated areas and volumes relatively well, with correlations for the ensemble mean of 0.82 and 0.85 for area and volume, respectively, although the meteorological ensemble spread propagates in large uncertainty of the simulated flood characteristics.

Reflections on Freirean Pedagogy in a Jazz Combo Lab

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shevock, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

Paulo Freire was an important figure in adult education whose pedagogy has been used in music education. In this act of praxis (reflection and action upon the world in order to transform it), I share an autoethnography of my teaching of a university-level small ensemble jazz class. The purpose of this autoethnography was to examine my teaching…

Stable discrete representation of relativistically drifting plasmas

DOE PAGES

Kirchen, M.; Lehe, R.; Godfrey, B. B.; ...

2016-10-10

Representing the electrodynamics of relativistically drifting particle ensembles in discrete, co-propagating Galilean coordinates enables the derivation of a Particle-In-Cell algorithm that is intrinsically free of the numerical Cherenkov instability for plasmas flowing at a uniform velocity. Application of the method is shown by modeling plasma accelerators in a Lorentz-transformed optimal frame of reference.

Validation Test Report for a Genetic Algorithm in the Glider Observation STrategies (GOST 1.0) Project: Sensitivity Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-15

Environmental Model ( GDEM ) 72 levels) was conserved in the interpolated profiles and small variations in the vertical field may have lead to large...Planner ETKF Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter G8NCOM 1/8⁰ Global NCOM GA Genetic Algorithm GDEM Generalized Digital Environmental Model GOST

Stable discrete representation of relativistically drifting plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirchen, M.; Lehe, R.; Godfrey, B. B.

Representing the electrodynamics of relativistically drifting particle ensembles in discrete, co-propagating Galilean coordinates enables the derivation of a Particle-In-Cell algorithm that is intrinsically free of the numerical Cherenkov instability for plasmas flowing at a uniform velocity. Application of the method is shown by modeling plasma accelerators in a Lorentz-transformed optimal frame of reference.

Displacement data assimilation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenthal, W. Steven; Venkataramani, Shankar; Mariano, Arthur J.

We show that modifying a Bayesian data assimilation scheme by incorporating kinematically-consistent displacement corrections produces a scheme that is demonstrably better at estimating partially observed state vectors in a setting where feature information is important. While the displacement transformation is generic, here we implement it within an ensemble Kalman Filter framework and demonstrate its effectiveness in tracking stochastically perturbed vortices.

Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends in the Presence of Natural Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, J. M.

2014-12-01

The fingerprint of human-induced global warming stands out clearly above the noise In the time series of global-mean temperature, but not local temperature. At extratropical latitudes over land the standard error of 50-year linear temperature trends at a fixed point is as large as the cumulative rise in global-mean temperature over the past century. Much of the samping variability in local temperature trends is "dynamically-induced", i.e., attributable to the fact that the seasonally-varying mean circulation varies substantially from one year to the next and anomalous circulation patterns are generally accompanied by anomalous temperature patterns. In the presence of such large sampling variability it is virtually impossible to identify the spatial signature of greenhouse warming based on observational data or to partition observed local temperature trends into natural and human-induced components. It follows that previous IPCC assessments, which have focused on the deterministic signature of human-induced climate change, are inherently limited as to what they can tell us about the attribution of the past record of local temperature change or about how much the temperature at a particular place is likely to rise in the next few decades in response to global warming. To obtain more informative assessments of regional and local climate variability and change it will be necessary to take a probabilistic approach. Just as the use of the ensembles has contributed to more informative extended range weather predictions, large ensembles of climate model simulations can provide a statistical context for interpreting observed climate change and for framing projections of future climate. For some purposes, statistics relating to the interannual variability in the historical record can serve as a surrogate for statistics relating to the diversity of climate change scenarios in large ensembles.

Global ensemble texture representations are critical to rapid scene perception.

PubMed

Brady, Timothy F; Shafer-Skelton, Anna; Alvarez, George A

2017-06-01

Traditionally, recognizing the objects within a scene has been treated as a prerequisite to recognizing the scene itself. However, research now suggests that the ability to rapidly recognize visual scenes could be supported by global properties of the scene itself rather than the objects within the scene. Here, we argue for a particular instantiation of this view: That scenes are recognized by treating them as a global texture and processing the pattern of orientations and spatial frequencies across different areas of the scene without recognizing any objects. To test this model, we asked whether there is a link between how proficient individuals are at rapid scene perception and how proficiently they represent simple spatial patterns of orientation information (global ensemble texture). We find a significant and selective correlation between these tasks, suggesting a link between scene perception and spatial ensemble tasks but not nonspatial summary statistics In a second and third experiment, we additionally show that global ensemble texture information is not only associated with scene recognition, but that preserving only global ensemble texture information from scenes is sufficient to support rapid scene perception; however, preserving the same information is not sufficient for object recognition. Thus, global ensemble texture alone is sufficient to allow activation of scene representations but not object representations. Together, these results provide evidence for a view of scene recognition based on global ensemble texture rather than a view based purely on objects or on nonspatially localized global properties. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamics of interacting Dicke model in a coupled-cavity array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badshah, Fazal; Qamar, Shahid; Paternostro, Mauro

2014-09-01

We consider the dynamics of an array of mutually interacting cavities, each containing an ensemble of N two-level atoms. By exploring the possibilities offered by ensembles of various dimensions and a range of atom-light and photon-hopping values, we investigate the generation of multisite entanglement, as well as the performance of excitation transfer across the array, resulting from the competition between on-site nonlinearities of the matter-light interaction and intersite photon hopping. In particular, for a three-cavity interacting system it is observed that the initial excitation in the first cavity completely transfers to the ensemble in the third cavity through the hopping of photons between the adjacent cavities. Probabilities of the transfer of excitation of the cavity modes and ensembles exhibit characteristics of fast and slow oscillations governed by coupling and hopping parameters, respectively. In the large-hopping case, by seeding an initial excitation in the cavity at the center of the array, a tripartite W state, as well as a bipartite maximally entangled state, is obtained, depending on the interaction time. Population of the ensemble in a cavity has a positive impact on the rate of excitation transfer between the ensembles and their local cavity modes. In particular, for ensembles of five to seven atoms, tripartite W states can be produced even when the hopping rate is comparable to the cavity-atom coupling rate. A similar behavior of the transfer of excitation is observed for a four-coupled-cavity system with two initial excitations.

An interplanetary magnetic field ensemble at 1 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthaeus, W. H.; Goldstein, M. L.; King, J. H.

1985-01-01

A method for calculation ensemble averages from magnetic field data is described. A data set comprising approximately 16 months of nearly continuous ISEE-3 magnetic field data is used in this study. Individual subintervals of this data, ranging from 15 hours to 15.6 days comprise the ensemble. The sole condition for including each subinterval in the averages is the degree to which it represents a weakly time-stationary process. Averages obtained by this method are appropriate for a turbulence description of the interplanetary medium. The ensemble average correlation length obtained from all subintervals is found to be 4.9 x 10 to the 11th cm. The average value of the variances of the magnetic field components are in the approximate ratio 8:9:10, where the third component is the local mean field direction. The correlation lengths and variances are found to have a systematic variation with subinterval duration, reflecting the important role of low-frequency fluctuations in the interplanetary medium.

Fracture of disordered solids in compression as a critical phenomenon. I. Statistical mechanics formalism.

PubMed

Toussaint, Renaud; Pride, Steven R

2002-09-01

This is the first of a series of three articles that treats fracture localization as a critical phenomenon. This first article establishes a statistical mechanics based on ensemble averages when fluctuations through time play no role in defining the ensemble. Ensembles are obtained by dividing a huge rock sample into many mesoscopic volumes. Because rocks are a disordered collection of grains in cohesive contact, we expect that once shear strain is applied and cracks begin to arrive in the system, the mesoscopic volumes will have a wide distribution of different crack states. These mesoscopic volumes are the members of our ensembles. We determine the probability of observing a mesoscopic volume to be in a given crack state by maximizing Shannon's measure of the emergent-crack disorder subject to constraints coming from the energy balance of brittle fracture. The laws of thermodynamics, the partition function, and the quantification of temperature are obtained for such cracking systems.

Effect of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI) and degradation mechanisms on spent nuclear fuel rod mechanical performance during transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Brittany Ann

Winter storms can affect millions of people, with impacts such as disruptions to transportation, hazards to human health, reduction in retail sales, and structural damage. Blizzard forecasts for Alberta Clippers can be a particular challenge in the Northern Plains, as these systems typically depart from the Canadian Rockies, intensify, and impact the Northern Plains all within 24 hours. The purpose of this study is to determine whether probabilistic forecasts derived from a local physics-based ensemble can improve specific aspects of winter storm forecasts for three Alberta Clipper cases. Verification is performed on the ensemble members and ensemble mean with a focus on quantifying uncertainty in the storm track, two-meter winds, and precipitation using the MERRA and NOHRSC SNODAS datasets. This study finds that addition improvements are needed to proceed with operational use of the ensemble blizzard products, but the use of a proxy for blizzard conditions yields promising results.

Ensemble Grouping Strategies for Embedded Stochastic Collocation Methods Applied to Anisotropic Diffusion Problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D'Elia, M.; Edwards, H. C.; Hu, J.

Previous work has demonstrated that propagating groups of samples, called ensembles, together through forward simulations can dramatically reduce the aggregate cost of sampling-based uncertainty propagation methods [E. Phipps, M. D'Elia, H. C. Edwards, M. Hoemmen, J. Hu, and S. Rajamanickam, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 39 (2017), pp. C162--C193]. However, critical to the success of this approach when applied to challenging problems of scientific interest is the grouping of samples into ensembles to minimize the total computational work. For example, the total number of linear solver iterations for ensemble systems may be strongly influenced by which samples form the ensemble whenmore » applying iterative linear solvers to parameterized and stochastic linear systems. In this paper we explore sample grouping strategies for local adaptive stochastic collocation methods applied to PDEs with uncertain input data, in particular canonical anisotropic diffusion problems where the diffusion coefficient is modeled by truncated Karhunen--Loève expansions. Finally, we demonstrate that a measure of the total anisotropy of the diffusion coefficient is a good surrogate for the number of linear solver iterations for each sample and therefore provides a simple and effective metric for grouping samples.« less

Ensemble Grouping Strategies for Embedded Stochastic Collocation Methods Applied to Anisotropic Diffusion Problems

DOE PAGES

D'Elia, M.; Edwards, H. C.; Hu, J.; ...

2018-01-18

Previous work has demonstrated that propagating groups of samples, called ensembles, together through forward simulations can dramatically reduce the aggregate cost of sampling-based uncertainty propagation methods [E. Phipps, M. D'Elia, H. C. Edwards, M. Hoemmen, J. Hu, and S. Rajamanickam, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 39 (2017), pp. C162--C193]. However, critical to the success of this approach when applied to challenging problems of scientific interest is the grouping of samples into ensembles to minimize the total computational work. For example, the total number of linear solver iterations for ensemble systems may be strongly influenced by which samples form the ensemble whenmore » applying iterative linear solvers to parameterized and stochastic linear systems. In this paper we explore sample grouping strategies for local adaptive stochastic collocation methods applied to PDEs with uncertain input data, in particular canonical anisotropic diffusion problems where the diffusion coefficient is modeled by truncated Karhunen--Loève expansions. Finally, we demonstrate that a measure of the total anisotropy of the diffusion coefficient is a good surrogate for the number of linear solver iterations for each sample and therefore provides a simple and effective metric for grouping samples.« less

Quantum entanglement at ambient conditions in a macroscopic solid-state spin ensemble

PubMed Central

Klimov, Paul V.; Falk, Abram L.; Christle, David J.; Dobrovitski, Viatcheslav V.; Awschalom, David D.

2015-01-01

Entanglement is a key resource for quantum computers, quantum-communication networks, and high-precision sensors. Macroscopic spin ensembles have been historically important in the development of quantum algorithms for these prospective technologies and remain strong candidates for implementing them today. This strength derives from their long-lived quantum coherence, strong signal, and ability to couple collectively to external degrees of freedom. Nonetheless, preparing ensembles of genuinely entangled spin states has required high magnetic fields and cryogenic temperatures or photochemical reactions. We demonstrate that entanglement can be realized in solid-state spin ensembles at ambient conditions. We use hybrid registers comprising of electron-nuclear spin pairs that are localized at color-center defects in a commercial SiC wafer. We optically initialize 103 identical registers in a 40-μm3 volume (with 0.95−0.07+0.05 fidelity) and deterministically prepare them into the maximally entangled Bell states (with 0.88 ± 0.07 fidelity). To verify entanglement, we develop a register-specific quantum-state tomography protocol. The entanglement of a macroscopic solid-state spin ensemble at ambient conditions represents an important step toward practical quantum technology. PMID:26702444

Sensory processing patterns predict the integration of information held in visual working memory.

PubMed

Lowe, Matthew X; Stevenson, Ryan A; Wilson, Kristin E; Ouslis, Natasha E; Barense, Morgan D; Cant, Jonathan S; Ferber, Susanne

2016-02-01

Given the limited resources of visual working memory, multiple items may be remembered as an averaged group or ensemble. As a result, local information may be ill-defined, but these ensemble representations provide accurate diagnostics of the natural world by combining gist information with item-level information held in visual working memory. Some neurodevelopmental disorders are characterized by sensory processing profiles that predispose individuals to avoid or seek-out sensory stimulation, fundamentally altering their perceptual experience. Here, we report such processing styles will affect the computation of ensemble statistics in the general population. We identified stable adult sensory processing patterns to demonstrate that individuals with low sensory thresholds who show a greater proclivity to engage in active response strategies to prevent sensory overstimulation are less likely to integrate mean size information across a set of similar items and are therefore more likely to be biased away from the mean size representation of an ensemble display. We therefore propose the study of ensemble processing should extend beyond the statistics of the display, and should also consider the statistics of the observer. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A coupled-oscillator model of olfactory bulb gamma oscillations

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The olfactory bulb transforms not only the information content of the primary sensory representation, but also its underlying coding metric. High-variance, slow-timescale primary odor representations are transformed by bulbar circuitry into secondary representations based on principal neuron spike patterns that are tightly regulated in time. This emergent fast timescale for signaling is reflected in gamma-band local field potentials, presumably serving to efficiently integrate olfactory sensory information into the temporally regulated information networks of the central nervous system. To understand this transformation and its integration with interareal coordination mechanisms requires that we understand its fundamental dynamical principles. Using a biophysically explicit, multiscale model of olfactory bulb circuitry, we here demonstrate that an inhibition-coupled intrinsic oscillator framework, pyramidal resonance interneuron network gamma (PRING), best captures the diversity of physiological properties exhibited by the olfactory bulb. Most importantly, these properties include global zero-phase synchronization in the gamma band, the phase-restriction of informative spikes in principal neurons with respect to this common clock, and the robustness of this synchronous oscillatory regime to multiple challenging conditions observed in the biological system. These conditions include substantial heterogeneities in afferent activation levels and excitatory synaptic weights, high levels of uncorrelated background activity among principal neurons, and spike frequencies in both principal neurons and interneurons that are irregular in time and much lower than the gamma frequency. This coupled cellular oscillator architecture permits stable and replicable ensemble responses to diverse sensory stimuli under various external conditions as well as to changes in network parameters arising from learning-dependent synaptic plasticity. PMID:29140973

The FLAME-slab method for electromagnetic wave scattering in aperiodic slabs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansha, Shampy; Tsukerman, Igor; Chong, Y. D.

2017-12-01

The proposed numerical method, "FLAME-slab," solves electromagnetic wave scattering problems for aperiodic slab structures by exploiting short-range regularities in these structures. The computational procedure involves special difference schemes with high accuracy even on coarse grids. These schemes are based on Trefftz approximations, utilizing functions that locally satisfy the governing differential equations, as is done in the Flexible Local Approximation Method (FLAME). Radiation boundary conditions are implemented via Fourier expansions in the air surrounding the slab. When applied to ensembles of slab structures with identical short-range features, such as amorphous or quasicrystalline lattices, the method is significantly more efficient, both in runtime and in memory consumption, than traditional approaches. This efficiency is due to the fact that the Trefftz functions need to be computed only once for the whole ensemble.

An inquiry into the cirrus-cloud thermostat effect for tropical sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Sui, C.-H.; Chou, M.-D.; Tao, W.-K.

1994-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the relative importance of local vs remote control on cloud radiative forcing using a cumulus ensemble model. It is found that cloud and surface radiation forcings are much more sensitive to the mean vertical motion assoicated with large scale tropical circulation than to the local SST (sea surface temperature). When the local SST is increased with the mean vertical motion held constant, increased surface latent and sensible heat flux associated with enhanced moisture recycling is found to be the primary mechanism for cooling the ocean surface. Large changes in surface shortwave fluxes are related to changes in cloudiness induced by changes in the large scale circulation. These results are consistent with a number of earlier empirical studies, which raised concerns regarding the validity of the cirrus-thermostat hypothesis (Ramanathan and Collins, 1991). It is argued that for a better understanding of cloud feedback, both local and remote controls need to be considered and that a cumulus ensemble model is a powerful tool that should be explored for such purpose.

Constraining a Coastal Ocean Model by Surface Observations Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Mey, P. J.; Ayoub, N. K.

2016-02-01

We explore the impact of assimilating sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) observations in the Bay of Biscay (North-East Atlantic). The study is conducted in the SYMPHONIE coastal circulation model (Marsaleix et al., 2009) on a 3kmx3km grid, with 43 sigma levels. Ensembles are generated by perturbing the wind forcing to analyze the model error subspace spanned by its response to wind forcing uncertainties. The assimilation method is a 4D Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm with localization. We use the SDAP code developed in the team (https://sourceforge.net/projects/sequoia-dap/). In a first step before the assimilation of real observations, we set up an Ensemble twin experiment protocol where a nature run as well as noisy pseudo-observations of SST and SSH are generated from an Ensemble member (later discarded from the assimilative Ensemble). Our objectives are to assess (1) the adequacy of the choice of error source and perturbation strategy and (2) how effective the surface observational constraint is at constraining the surface and subsurface fields. We first illustrate characteristics of the error subspace generated by the perturbation strategy. We then show that, while the EnKF solves a single seamless problem regardless of the region within our domain, the nature and effectiveness of the data constraint over the shelf differ from those over the abyssal plain.

Considerations for Using Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation in NASA-GMAO's Next Reanalysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

El Akkraoui, Amal; Todling, Ricardo

2017-01-01

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest reanalysis produced by GMAO, and provides global data spanning the period 1980-present. The atmospheric data assimilation component of MERRA-2 used a 3D-Var scheme, which was operational at the time of its design. Since then, a Hybrid 3D-Var, then a Hybrid 4D-EnVar were implemented, adding an ensemble component to the data assimilation scheme. In this work, we will be examining the benefits of using hybrid ensemble flow-dependent covariances to represent errors and uncertainties in historic periods. Specifically, periods of pre- and post-satellites, as well as periods of active tropical cyclone seasons. Finally, we will also be exploring the use of adaptive localization scales.

WONKA: objective novel complex analysis for ensembles of protein-ligand structures.

PubMed

Bradley, A R; Wall, I D; von Delft, F; Green, D V S; Deane, C M; Marsden, B D

2015-10-01

WONKA is a tool for the systematic analysis of an ensemble of protein-ligand structures. It makes the identification of conserved and unusual features within such an ensemble straightforward. WONKA uses an intuitive workflow to process structural co-ordinates. Ligand and protein features are summarised and then presented within an interactive web application. WONKA's power in consolidating and summarising large amounts of data is described through the analysis of three bromodomain datasets. Furthermore, and in contrast to many current methods, WONKA relates analysis to individual ligands, from which we find unusual and erroneous binding modes. Finally the use of WONKA as an annotation tool to share observations about structures is demonstrated. WONKA is freely available to download and install locally or can be used online at http://wonka.sgc.ox.ac.uk.

Land-total and Ocean-total Precipitation and Evaporation from a Community Atmosphere Model version 5 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Covey, Curt; Lucas, Donald D.; Trenberth, Kevin E.

2016-03-02

This document presents the large scale water budget statistics of a perturbed input-parameter ensemble of atmospheric model runs. The model is Version 5.1.02 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). These runs are the “C-Ensemble” described by Qian et al., “Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Precipitation at Global and Local Scales in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5” (Journal of Advances in Modeling the Earth System, 2015). As noted by Qian et al., the simulations are “AMIP type” with temperature and sea ice boundary conditions chosen to match surface observations for the five year period 2000-2004. There are 1100 ensemble members in additionmore » to one run with default inputparameter values.« less

Instanton-dyon ensembles reproduce deconfinement and chiral restoration phase transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuryak, Edward

2018-03-01

Paradigm shift in gauge topology at finite temperatures, from the instantons to their constituents - instanton-dyons - has recently lead to studies of their ensembles and very significant advances. Like instantons, they have fermionic zero modes, and their collectivization at suffciently high density explains the chiral symmetry breaking transition. Unlike instantons, these objects have electric and magnetic charges. Simulations of the instanton-dyon ensembles have demonstrated that their back reaction on the Polyakov line modifies its potential and generates the deconfinement phase transition. For the Nc = 2 gauge theory the transition is second order, for QCD-like theory with Nc = 2 and two light quark flavors Nf = 2 both transitions are weak crossovers at happening at about the same condition. Introduction of quark-flavor-dependent periodicity phases (imaginary chemical potentials) leads to drastic changes in both transitions. In particulaly, in the so called Z(Nc) - QCD model the deconfinement transforms to strong first order transition, while the chiral condensate does not disappear at all. The talk will also cover more detailed studies of correlations between the dyons, effective eta' mass and other screening masses.

Application of a Split-Fiber Probe to Velocity Measurement in the NASA Research Compressor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lepicovsky, Jan

2003-01-01

A split-fiber probe was used to acquire unsteady data in a research compressor. The probe has two thin films deposited on a quartz cylinder 200 microns in diameter. A split-fiber probe allows simultaneous measurement of velocity magnitude and direction in a plane that is perpendicular to the sensing cylinder, because it has its circumference divided into two independent parts. Local heat transfer considerations indicated that the probe direction characteristic is linear in the range of flow incidence angles of +/- 35. Calibration tests confirmed this assumption. Of course, the velocity characteristic is nonlinear as is typical in thermal anemometry. The probe was used extensively in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) low-speed, multistage axial compressor, and worked reliably during a test program of several months duration. The velocity and direction characteristics of the probe showed only minute changes during the entire test program. An algorithm was developed to decompose the probe signals into velocity magnitude and velocity direction. The averaged unsteady data were compared with data acquired by pneumatic probes. An overall excellent agreement between the averaged data acquired by a split-fiber probe and a pneumatic probe boosts confidence in the reliability of the unsteady content of the split-fiber probe data. To investigate the features of unsteady data, two methods were used: ensemble averaging and frequency analysis. The velocity distribution in a rotor blade passage was retrieved using the ensemble averaging method. Frequencies of excitation forces that may contribute to high cycle fatigue problems were identified by applying a fast Fourier transform to the absolute velocity data.

Learners' Ensemble Based Security Conceptual Model for M-Learning System in Malaysian Higher Learning Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahalingam, Sheila; Abdollah, Faizal Mohd; Sahib, Shahrin

2014-01-01

M-Learning has a potential to improve efficiency in the education sector and has a tendency to grow advance and transform the learning environment in the future. Yet there are challenges in many areas faced when introducing and implementing m-learning. The learner centered attribute in mobile learning implies deployment in untrustworthy learning…

Determination of knock characteristics in spark ignition engines: an approach based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Yang, Jianguo; Zhou, Rui; Liang, Caiping

2016-04-01

Knock is one of the major constraints to improve the performance and thermal efficiency of spark ignition (SI) engines. It can also result in severe permanent engine damage under certain operating conditions. Based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), this paper proposes a new approach to determine the knock characteristics in SI engines. By adding a uniformly distributed and finite white Gaussian noise, the EEMD can preserve signal continuity in different scales and therefore alleviates the mode-mixing problem occurring in the classic empirical mode decomposition (EMD). The feasibilities of applying the EEMD to detect the knock signatures of a test SI engine via the pressure signal measured from combustion chamber and the vibration signal measured from cylinder head are investigated. Experimental results show that the EEMD-based method is able to detect the knock signatures from both the pressure signal and vibration signal, even in initial stage of knock. Finally, by comparing the application results with those obtained by short-time Fourier transform (STFT), Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT), the superiority of the EEMD method in determining knock characteristics is demonstrated.

Interpolation and analyses of EURO-Cordex data for the characterization of local and regional climate change impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Manfred; Pfannschmidt, Kai; Knevels, Raphel; Fischer, Christian; Brenning, Alexander

2017-04-01

Decisions on measures for adapting to possible climate impacts are critical at both regional and local levels of authority. Currently, the data from EURO-CORDEX is only provided at resolutions (0.11 and 0.44 degrees) that are sufficient for climate analysis in larger scale regions. Therefore, there is a need for more detailed climate information that can assist decision making at the county and town levels. To tackle this challenge, we have developed a tool for the Just Another Modelling System (JAMS; Kralisch et al. 2007) that produces approx. 50 climate characterizing parameters (e.g. average temperature, ice days, climatic water balance, among others) for different time intervals. This tool is combined within the JAMS environment with the J2000g distributed conceptual hydrological model (Krause and Hanisch 2009) to additionally calculate hydro-meteorological parameters, such as actual evapotranspiration, ground water recharge and runoff generation. The resolution of the data was transformed to a higher resolution (250 m) by applying an inverse distance weights (IDW) interpolation. The IDW was combined with an altitude regression approach using digital elevation model data to represent more detailed information of the land surface. We applied this downscaling approach for the federal state of Thuringia, Germany, which is represented by 371206 model units. An ensemble of 10 different EURO-CORDEX models (0.11 degree resolution) in a time period from 1961 to 2100 and measured data from 1960 to 1990 were analyzed. The climate change impacts were estimated by analyzing the changes between historical periods (1960 - 1990) and future periods (2020 - 2050, 2070 -2100) within the modeled EURO-CORDEX ensemble members. We also improved our interpolation approach by replacing IDW with kriging; this approach was especially an advantage for the interpolation of irregularly distributed measurement stations. The results were used to estimate the effects of climate change for the federal state of Thuringia and to support Thuringian climate-change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Future work will concentrate on bias correction of the ensemble members using the measured data. References Kralisch, S., P. Krause, M. Fink, C. Fischer, and W. Flügel (2007): Component based environmental modelling using the JAMS framework, in Proceedings of the MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, edited by D. Kulasiri and L. Oxley, Christchurch, New Zealand Krause P, Hanisch S (2009): Simulation and analysis of the impact of projected climate change on the spatially distributed water balance in Thuringia, Germany. Adv Geosci 21:33-48. doi:10.5194/adgeo-21-33-2009

Automatic categorization of anatomical landmark-local appearances based on diffeomorphic demons and spectral clustering for constructing detector ensembles.

PubMed

Hanaoka, Shouhei; Masutani, Yoshitaka; Nemoto, Mitsutaka; Nomura, Yukihiro; Yoshikawa, Takeharu; Hayashi, Naoto; Ohtomo, Kuni

2012-01-01

A method for categorizing landmark-local appearances extracted from computed tomography (CT) datasets is presented. Anatomical landmarks in the human body inevitably have inter-individual variations that cause difficulty in automatic landmark detection processes. The goal of this study is to categorize subjects (i.e., training datasets) according to local shape variations of such a landmark so that each subgroup has less shape variation and thus the machine learning of each landmark detector is much easier. The similarity between each subject pair is measured based on the non-rigid registration result between them. These similarities are used by the spectral clustering process. After the clustering, all training datasets in each cluster, as well as synthesized intermediate images calculated from all subject-pairs in the cluster, are used to train the corresponding subgroup detector. All of these trained detectors compose a detector ensemble to detect the target landmark. Evaluation with clinical CT datasets showed great improvement in the detection performance.

Decoding complete reach and grasp actions from local primary motor cortex populations.

PubMed

Vargas-Irwin, Carlos E; Shakhnarovich, Gregory; Yadollahpour, Payman; Mislow, John M K; Black, Michael J; Donoghue, John P

2010-07-21

How the activity of populations of cortical neurons generates coordinated multijoint actions of the arm, wrist, and hand is poorly understood. This study combined multielectrode recording techniques with full arm motion capture to relate neural activity in primary motor cortex (M1) of macaques (Macaca mulatta) to arm, wrist, and hand postures during movement. We find that the firing rate of individual M1 neurons is typically modulated by the kinematics of multiple joints and that small, local ensembles of M1 neurons contain sufficient information to reconstruct 25 measured joint angles (representing an estimated 10 functionally independent degrees of freedom). Beyond showing that the spiking patterns of local M1 ensembles represent a rich set of naturalistic movements involving the entire upper limb, the results also suggest that achieving high-dimensional reach and grasp actions with neuroprosthetic devices may be possible using small intracortical arrays like those already being tested in human pilot clinical trials.

Weak constrained localized ensemble transform Kalman filter for radar data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janjic, Tijana; Lange, Heiner

2015-04-01

The applications on convective scales require data assimilation with a numerical model with single digit horizontal resolution in km and time evolving error covariances. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm incorporates these two requirements. However, some challenges for the convective scale applications remain unresolved when using the EnKF approach. These include a need on convective scale to estimate fields that are nonnegative (as rain, graupel, snow) and use of data sets as radar reflectivity or cloud products that have the same property. What underlines these examples are errors that are non-Gaussian in nature causing a problem with EnKF, which uses Gaussian error assumptions to produce the estimates from the previous forecast and the incoming data. Since the proper estimates of hydrometeors are crucial for prediction on convective scales, question arises whether EnKF method can be modified to improve these estimates and whether there is a way of optimizing use of radar observations to initialize NWP models due to importance of this data set for prediction of connective storms. In order to deal with non-Gaussian errors different approaches can be taken in the EnKF framework. For example, variables can be transformed by assuming the relevant state variables follow an appropriate pre-specified non-Gaussian distribution, such as the lognormal and truncated Gaussian distribution or, more generally, by carrying out a parameterized change of state variables known as Gaussian anamorphosis. In a recent work by Janjic et al. 2014, it was shown on a simple example how conservation of mass could be beneficial for assimilation of positive variables. The method developed in the paper outperformed the EnKF as well as the EnKF with the lognormal change of variables. As argued in the paper the reason for this, is that each of these methods preserves mass (EnKF) or positivity (lognormal EnKF) but not both. Only once both positivity and mass were preserved in a new algorithm, the good estimates of the fields were obtained. The alternative to strong constraint formulation in Janjic et al. 2014 is to modify LETKF algorithm to take into the account physical properties only approximately. In this work we will include the weak constraints in the LETKF algorithm for estimation of hydrometers. The benefit on prediction is illustrated in an idealized setup (Lange and Craig, 2013). This setup uses the non hydrostatic COSMO model with a 2 km horizontal resolution, and the LETKF as implemented in KENDA (Km-scale Ensemble Data Assimilation) system of German Weather Service (Reich et al. 2011). Due to the Gaussian assumptions that underline the LETKF algorithm, the analyses of water species will become negative in some grid points of the COSMO model. These values are set to zero currently in KENDA after the LETKF analysis step. The tests done within this setup show that such a procedure introduces a bias in the analysis ensemble with respect to the true, that increases in time due to the cycled data assimilation. The benefits of including the constraints in LETKF are illustrated on the bias values during assimilation and the prediction.

HEPEX - achievements and challenges!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, Florian; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Thielen, Jutta; Wood, Andy; Wang, Qj; Duan, Qingyun; Collischonn, Walter; Verkade, Jan; Voisin, Nathalie; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Vuillaume, Jean-Francois Emmanuel; Lucatero Villasenor, Diana; Cloke, Hannah L.; Schaake, John; van Andel, Schalk-Jan

2014-05-01

HEPEX is an international initiative bringing together hydrologists, meteorologists, researchers and end-users to develop advanced probabilistic hydrological forecast techniques for improved flood, drought and water management. HEPEX was launched in 2004 as an independent, cooperative international scientific activity. During the first meeting, the overarching goal was defined as: "to develop and test procedures to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts, and to demonstrate their utility in decision making related to the water, environmental and emergency management sectors." The applications of hydrological ensemble predictions span across large spatio-temporal scales, ranging from short-term and localized predictions to global climate change and regional modeling. Within the HEPEX community, information is shared through its blog (www.hepex.org), meetings, testbeds and intercompaison experiments, as well as project reportings. Key questions of HEPEX are: * What adaptations are required for meteorological ensemble systems to be coupled with hydrological ensemble systems? * How should the existing hydrological ensemble prediction systems be modified to account for all sources of uncertainty within a forecast? * What is the best way for the user community to take advantage of ensemble forecasts and to make better decisions based on them? This year HEPEX celebrates its 10th year anniversary and this poster will present a review of the main operational and research achievements and challenges prepared by Hepex contributors on data assimilation, post-processing of hydrologic predictions, forecast verification, communication and use of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making. Additionally, we will present the most recent activities implemented by Hepex and illustrate how everyone can join the community and participate to the development of new approaches in hydrologic ensemble prediction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ullrich, C. A.; Kohn, W.

An electron density distribution n(r) which can be represented by that of a single-determinant ground state of noninteracting electrons in an external potential v(r) is called pure-state v -representable (P-VR). Most physical electronic systems are P-VR. Systems which require a weighted sum of several such determinants to represent their density are called ensemble v -representable (E-VR). This paper develops formal Kohn-Sham equations for E-VR physical systems, using the appropriate coupling constant integration. It also derives local density- and generalized gradient approximations, and conditions and corrections specific to ensembles.

Radar Polarimetry: Theory, Analysis, and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbert, John Clark

The fields of radar polarimetry and optical polarimetry are compared. The mathematics of optic polarimetry are formulated such that a local right handed coordinate system is always used to describe the polarization states. This is not done in radar polarimetry. Radar optimum polarization theory is redeveloped within the framework of optical polarimetry. The radar optimum polarizations and optic eigenvalues of common scatterers are compared. In addition a novel definition of an eigenpolarization state is given and the accompanying mathematics is developed. The polarization response calculated using optic, radar and novel definitions is presented for a variety of scatterers. Polarimetric transformation provides a means to characterize scatters in more than one polarization basis. Polarimetric transformation for an ensemble of scatters is obtained via two methods: (1) the covariance method and (2) the instantaneous scattering matrix (ISM) method. The covariance method is used to relate the mean radar parameters of a +/-45^circ linear polarization basis to those of a horizontal and vertical polarization basis. In contrast the ISM method transforms the individual time samples. Algorithms are developed for transforming the time series from fully polarimetric radars that switch between orthogonal states. The transformed time series are then used to calculate the mean radar parameters of interest. It is also shown that propagation effects do not need to be removed from the ISM's before transformation. The techniques are demonstrated using data collected by POLDIRAD, the German Aerospace Research Establishment's fully polarimetric C-band radar. The differential phase observed between two copolar states, Psi_{CO}, is composed of two phases: (1) differential propagation phase, phi_{DP}, and (2) differential backscatter phase, delta. The slope of phi_{DP } with range is an estimate of the specific differential phase, K_{DP}. The process of estimating K_{DP} is complicated when delta is present. Algorithms are presented for estimating delta and K_{DP} from range profiles of Psi_ {CO}. Also discussed are procedures for the estimation and interpretation of other radar measurables such as reflectivity, Z_{HH}, differential reflectivity, Z_{DR }, the magnitude of the copolar correlation coefficient, rho_{HV}(0), and Doppler spectrum width, sigma _{v}. The techniques are again illustrated with data collected by POLDIRAD.

Recognition of medication information from discharge summaries using ensembles of classifiers.

PubMed

Doan, Son; Collier, Nigel; Xu, Hua; Pham, Hoang Duy; Tu, Minh Phuong

2012-05-07

Extraction of clinical information such as medications or problems from clinical text is an important task of clinical natural language processing (NLP). Rule-based methods are often used in clinical NLP systems because they are easy to adapt and customize. Recently, supervised machine learning methods have proven to be effective in clinical NLP as well. However, combining different classifiers to further improve the performance of clinical entity recognition systems has not been investigated extensively. Combining classifiers into an ensemble classifier presents both challenges and opportunities to improve performance in such NLP tasks. We investigated ensemble classifiers that used different voting strategies to combine outputs from three individual classifiers: a rule-based system, a support vector machine (SVM) based system, and a conditional random field (CRF) based system. Three voting methods were proposed and evaluated using the annotated data sets from the 2009 i2b2 NLP challenge: simple majority, local SVM-based voting, and local CRF-based voting. Evaluation on 268 manually annotated discharge summaries from the i2b2 challenge showed that the local CRF-based voting method achieved the best F-score of 90.84% (94.11% Precision, 87.81% Recall) for 10-fold cross-validation. We then compared our systems with the first-ranked system in the challenge by using the same training and test sets. Our system based on majority voting achieved a better F-score of 89.65% (93.91% Precision, 85.76% Recall) than the previously reported F-score of 89.19% (93.78% Precision, 85.03% Recall) by the first-ranked system in the challenge. Our experimental results using the 2009 i2b2 challenge datasets showed that ensemble classifiers that combine individual classifiers into a voting system could achieve better performance than a single classifier in recognizing medication information from clinical text. It suggests that simple strategies that can be easily implemented such as majority voting could have the potential to significantly improve clinical entity recognition.

MUSE: MUlti-atlas region Segmentation utilizing Ensembles of registration algorithms and parameters, and locally optimal atlas selection

PubMed Central

Ou, Yangming; Resnick, Susan M.; Gur, Ruben C.; Gur, Raquel E.; Satterthwaite, Theodore D.; Furth, Susan; Davatzikos, Christos

2016-01-01

Atlas-based automated anatomical labeling is a fundamental tool in medical image segmentation, as it defines regions of interest for subsequent analysis of structural and functional image data. The extensive investigation of multi-atlas warping and fusion techniques over the past 5 or more years has clearly demonstrated the advantages of consensus-based segmentation. However, the common approach is to use multiple atlases with a single registration method and parameter set, which is not necessarily optimal for every individual scan, anatomical region, and problem/data-type. Different registration criteria and parameter sets yield different solutions, each providing complementary information. Herein, we present a consensus labeling framework that generates a broad ensemble of labeled atlases in target image space via the use of several warping algorithms, regularization parameters, and atlases. The label fusion integrates two complementary sources of information: a local similarity ranking to select locally optimal atlases and a boundary modulation term to refine the segmentation consistently with the target image's intensity profile. The ensemble approach consistently outperforms segmentations using individual warping methods alone, achieving high accuracy on several benchmark datasets. The MUSE methodology has been used for processing thousands of scans from various datasets, producing robust and consistent results. MUSE is publicly available both as a downloadable software package, and as an application that can be run on the CBICA Image Processing Portal (https://ipp.cbica.upenn.edu), a web based platform for remote processing of medical images. PMID:26679328

Comparison of surface freshwater fluxes from different climate forecasts produced through different ensemble generation schemes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas; Wahl, Sabrina; Brune, Sebastian; Baehr, Johanna

2016-04-01

The decadal variability and its predictability of the surface net freshwater fluxes is compared in a set of retrospective predictions, all using the same model setup, and only differing in the implemented ocean initialisation method and ensemble generation method. The basic aim is to deduce the differences between the initialization/ensemble generation methods in view of the uncertainty of the verifying observational data sets. The analysis will give an approximation of the uncertainties of the net freshwater fluxes, which up to now appear to be one of the most uncertain products in observational data and model outputs. All ensemble generation methods are implemented into the MPI-ESM earth system model in the framework of the ongoing MiKlip project (www.fona-miklip.de). Hindcast experiments are initialised annually between 2000-2004, and from each start year 10 ensemble members are initialized for 5 years each. Four different ensemble generation methods are compared: (i) a method based on the Anomaly Transform method (Romanova and Hense, 2015) in which the initial oceanic perturbations represent orthogonal and balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between the variables taken from a control run, (ii) one-day-lagged ocean states from the MPI-ESM-LR baseline system (iii) one-day-lagged of ocean and atmospheric states with preceding full-field nudging to re-analysis in both the atmospheric and the oceanic component of the system - the baseline one MPI-ESM-LR system, (iv) an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) implemented into oceanic part of MPI-ESM (Brune et al. 2015), assimilating monthly subsurface oceanic temperature and salinity (EN3) using the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The hindcasts are evaluated probabilistically using fresh water flux data sets from four different reanalysis data sets: MERRA, NCEP-R1, GFDL ocean reanalysis and GECCO2. The assessments show no clear differences in the evaluations scores on regional scales. However, on the global scale the physically motivated methods (i) and (iv) provide probabilistic hindcasts with a consistently higher reliability than the lagged initialization methods (ii)/(iii) despite the large uncertainties in the verifying observations and in the simulations.

Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

2008-01-01

Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Robustness of the far-field response of nonlocal plasmonic ensembles.

PubMed

Tserkezis, Christos; Maack, Johan R; Liu, Zhaowei; Wubs, Martijn; Mortensen, N Asger

2016-06-22

Contrary to classical predictions, the optical response of few-nm plasmonic particles depends on particle size due to effects such as nonlocality and electron spill-out. Ensembles of such nanoparticles are therefore expected to exhibit a nonclassical inhomogeneous spectral broadening due to size distribution. For a normal distribution of free-electron nanoparticles, and within the simple nonlocal hydrodynamic Drude model, both the nonlocal blueshift and the plasmon linewidth are shown to be considerably affected by ensemble averaging. Size-variance effects tend however to conceal nonlocality to a lesser extent when the homogeneous size-dependent broadening of individual nanoparticles is taken into account, either through a local size-dependent damping model or through the Generalized Nonlocal Optical Response theory. The role of ensemble averaging is further explored in realistic distributions of isolated or weakly-interacting noble-metal nanoparticles, as encountered in experiments, while an analytical expression to evaluate the importance of inhomogeneous broadening through measurable quantities is developed. Our findings are independent of the specific nonclassical theory used, thus providing important insight into a large range of experiments on nanoscale and quantum plasmonics.

Peculiar spectral statistics of ensembles of trees and star-like graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovaleva, V.; Maximov, Yu; Nechaev, S.; Valba, O.

2017-07-01

In this paper we investigate the eigenvalue statistics of exponentially weighted ensembles of full binary trees and p-branching star graphs. We show that spectral densities of corresponding adjacency matrices demonstrate peculiar ultrametric structure inherent to sparse systems. In particular, the tails of the distribution for binary trees share the ‘Lifshitz singularity’ emerging in the one-dimensional localization, while the spectral statistics of p-branching star-like graphs is less universal, being strongly dependent on p. The hierarchical structure of spectra of adjacency matrices is interpreted as sets of resonance frequencies, that emerge in ensembles of fully branched tree-like systems, known as dendrimers. However, the relaxational spectrum is not determined by the cluster topology, but has rather the number-theoretic origin, reflecting the peculiarities of the rare-event statistics typical for one-dimensional systems with a quenched structural disorder. The similarity of spectral densities of an individual dendrimer and of an ensemble of linear chains with exponential distribution in lengths, demonstrates that dendrimers could be served as simple disorder-less toy models of one-dimensional systems with quenched disorder.

Impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and atmospheric carbon: results from a coupled carbon cycle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Koster, R. D.; Ott, L. E.; Weir, B.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Chang, Y.; Zeng, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes. Budget-based analyses show that such fluxes exhibit substantial interannual variability, but the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Two 48-member ensembles of NASA GEOS-5 simulations with fully coupled land and atmosphere carbon components are performed - a control ensemble and an ensemble with an artificially imposed dry land surface anomaly for three months (April-June) over the lower Mississippi River Valley. Comparison of the results using the ensemble approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.

Peculiar spectral statistics of ensembles of trees and star-like graphs

DOE PAGES

Kovaleva, V.; Maximov, Yu; Nechaev, S.; ...

2017-07-11

In this paper we investigate the eigenvalue statistics of exponentially weighted ensembles of full binary trees and p-branching star graphs. We show that spectral densities of corresponding adjacency matrices demonstrate peculiar ultrametric structure inherent to sparse systems. In particular, the tails of the distribution for binary trees share the \\Lifshitz singularity" emerging in the onedimensional localization, while the spectral statistics of p-branching star-like graphs is less universal, being strongly dependent on p. The hierarchical structure of spectra of adjacency matrices is interpreted as sets of resonance frequencies, that emerge in ensembles of fully branched tree-like systems, known as dendrimers. However,more » the relaxational spectrum is not determined by the cluster topology, but has rather the number-theoretic origin, re ecting the peculiarities of the rare-event statistics typical for one-dimensional systems with a quenched structural disorder. The similarity of spectral densities of an individual dendrimer and of ensemble of linear chains with exponential distribution in lengths, demonstrates that dendrimers could be served as simple disorder-less toy models of one-dimensional systems with quenched disorder.« less

Ensemble-based data assimilation and optimal sensor placement for scalar source reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mons, Vincent; Wang, Qi; Zaki, Tamer

2017-11-01

Reconstructing the characteristics of a scalar source from limited remote measurements in a turbulent flow is a problem of great interest for environmental monitoring, and is challenging due to several aspects. Firstly, the numerical estimation of the scalar dispersion in a turbulent flow requires significant computational resources. Secondly, in actual practice, only a limited number of observations are available, which generally makes the corresponding inverse problem ill-posed. Ensemble-based variational data assimilation techniques are adopted to solve the problem of scalar source localization in a turbulent channel flow at Reτ = 180 . This approach combines the components of variational data assimilation and ensemble Kalman filtering, and inherits the robustness from the former and the ease of implementation from the latter. An ensemble-based methodology for optimal sensor placement is also proposed in order to improve the condition of the inverse problem, which enhances the performances of the data assimilation scheme. This work has been partially funded by the Office of Naval Research (Grant N00014-16-1-2542) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant 1461870).

Peculiar spectral statistics of ensembles of trees and star-like graphs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kovaleva, V.; Maximov, Yu; Nechaev, S.

In this paper we investigate the eigenvalue statistics of exponentially weighted ensembles of full binary trees and p-branching star graphs. We show that spectral densities of corresponding adjacency matrices demonstrate peculiar ultrametric structure inherent to sparse systems. In particular, the tails of the distribution for binary trees share the \\Lifshitz singularity" emerging in the onedimensional localization, while the spectral statistics of p-branching star-like graphs is less universal, being strongly dependent on p. The hierarchical structure of spectra of adjacency matrices is interpreted as sets of resonance frequencies, that emerge in ensembles of fully branched tree-like systems, known as dendrimers. However,more » the relaxational spectrum is not determined by the cluster topology, but has rather the number-theoretic origin, re ecting the peculiarities of the rare-event statistics typical for one-dimensional systems with a quenched structural disorder. The similarity of spectral densities of an individual dendrimer and of ensemble of linear chains with exponential distribution in lengths, demonstrates that dendrimers could be served as simple disorder-less toy models of one-dimensional systems with quenched disorder.« less

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

PubMed

Hemming, Debbie; Buontempo, Carlo; Burke, Eleanor; Collins, Mat; Kaye, Neil

2010-11-28

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Dilatancy of Shear Transformations in a Colloidal Glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Y. Z.; Jiang, M. Q.; Lu, X.; Qin, Z. X.; Huang, Y. J.; Shen, J.

2018-01-01

Shear transformations, as fundamental rearrangement events operating in local regions, hold the key of plastic flow of amorphous solids. Despite their importance, the dynamic features of shear transformations are far from clear, which is the focus of the present study. Here, we use a colloidal glass under shear as the prototype to directly observe the shear-transformation events in real space. By tracing the colloidal-particle rearrangements, we quantitatively determine two basic properties of shear transformations: local shear strain and dilatation (or free volume). It is revealed that the local free volume undergoes a significantly temporary increase prior to shear transformations, eventually leading to a jump of local shear strain. We clearly demonstrate that shear transformations have no memory of the initial free volume of local regions. Instead, their emergence strongly depends on the dilatancy ability of these local regions, i.e., the dynamic creation of free volume. More specifically, the particles processing the high dilatancy ability directly participate in subsequent shear transformations. These results experimentally enrich Argon's statement about the dilatancy nature of shear transformations and also shed insight into the structural origin of amorphous plasticity.

Ensemble predictive model for more accurate soil organic carbon spectroscopic estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vašát, Radim; Kodešová, Radka; Borůvka, Luboš

2017-07-01

A myriad of signal pre-processing strategies and multivariate calibration techniques has been explored in attempt to improve the spectroscopic prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) over the last few decades. Therefore, to come up with a novel, more powerful, and accurate predictive approach to beat the rank becomes a challenging task. However, there may be a way, so that combine several individual predictions into a single final one (according to ensemble learning theory). As this approach performs best when combining in nature different predictive algorithms that are calibrated with structurally different predictor variables, we tested predictors of two different kinds: 1) reflectance values (or transforms) at each wavelength and 2) absorption feature parameters. Consequently we applied four different calibration techniques, two per each type of predictors: a) partial least squares regression and support vector machines for type 1, and b) multiple linear regression and random forest for type 2. The weights to be assigned to individual predictions within the ensemble model (constructed as a weighted average) were determined by an automated procedure that ensured the best solution among all possible was selected. The approach was tested at soil samples taken from surface horizon of four sites differing in the prevailing soil units. By employing the ensemble predictive model the prediction accuracy of SOC improved at all four sites. The coefficient of determination in cross-validation (R2cv) increased from 0.849, 0.611, 0.811 and 0.644 (the best individual predictions) to 0.864, 0.650, 0.824 and 0.698 for Site 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Generally, the ensemble model affected the final prediction so that the maximal deviations of predicted vs. observed values of the individual predictions were reduced, and thus the correlation cloud became thinner as desired.

Ensemble perception in autism spectrum disorder: Member-identification versus mean-discrimination.

PubMed

Van der Hallen, Ruth; Lemmens, Lisa; Steyaert, Jean; Noens, Ilse; Wagemans, Johan

2017-07-01

To efficiently represent the outside world our brain compresses sets of similar items into a summarized representation, a phenomenon known as ensemble perception. While most studies on ensemble perception investigate this perceptual mechanism in typically developing (TD) adults, more recently, researchers studying perceptual organization in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have turned their attention toward ensemble perception. The current study is the first to investigate the use of ensemble perception for size in children with and without ASD (N = 42, 8-16 years). We administered a pair of tasks pioneered by Ariely [2001] evaluating both member-identification and mean-discrimination. In addition, we varied the distribution types of our sets to allow a more detailed evaluation of task performance. Results show that, overall, both groups performed similarly in the member-identification task, a test of "local perception," and similarly in the mean identification task, a test of "gist perception." However, in both tasks performance of the TD group was affected more strongly by the degree of stimulus variability in the set, than performance of the ASD group. These findings indicate that both TD children and children with ASD use ensemble statistics to represent a set of similar items, illustrating the fundamental nature of ensemble coding in visual perception. Differences in sensitivity to stimulus variability between both groups are discussed in relation to recent theories of information processing in ASD (e.g., increased sampling, decreased priors, increased precision). Autism Res 2017. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Autism Res 2017, 10: 1291-1299. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hopson, T.; Roux, G.; Hacker, J.; Xu, M.; Warner, T.; Swerdlin, S.

2009-04-01

Mesoscale (2-2000 km) meteorological processes differ from synoptic circulations in that mesoscale weather changes rapidly in space and time, and physics processes that are parameterized in NWP models play a great role. Complex interactions of synoptic circulations, regional and local terrain, land-surface heterogeneity, and associated physical properties, and the physical processes of radiative transfer, cloud and precipitation and boundary layer mixing, are crucial in shaping regional weather and climate. Mesoscale ensemble analysis and prediction should sample the uncertainties of mesoscale modeling systems in representing these factors. An innovative mesoscale Ensemble Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (E-RTFDDA) and forecasting system has been developed at NCAR. E-RTFDDA contains diverse ensemble perturbation approaches that consider uncertainties in all major system components to produce multi-scale continuously-cycling probabilistic data assimilation and forecasting. A 30-member E-RTFDDA system with three nested domains with grid sizes of 30, 10 and 3.33 km has been running on a Department of Defense high-performance computing platform since September 2007. It has been applied at two very different US geographical locations; one in the western inter-mountain area and the other in the northeastern states, producing 6 hour analyses and 48 hour forecasts, with 4 forecast cycles a day. The operational model outputs are analyzed to a) assess overall ensemble performance and properties, b) study terrain effect on mesoscale predictability, c) quantify the contribution of different ensemble perturbation approaches to the overall forecast skill, and d) assess the additional contributed skill from an ensemble calibration process based on a quantile-regression algorithm. The system and the results will be reported at the meeting.

Impact assessment of climate change on tourism in the Pacific small islands based on the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Utsumi, N.; Take, M.; Iida, A.

2016-12-01

This study aims to develop a new approach to assess the impact of climate change on the small oceanic islands in the Pacific. In the new approach, the change of the probabilities of various situations was projected with considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations, instead of projecting the most probable situation. The database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) is a database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments, which has the results of 100 ensemble simulations. We utilized the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which was (a long-term and high-resolution database) composed of results of 100 ensemble experiments. A new methodology, Multi Threshold Ensemble Assessment (MTEA), was developed using the d4PDF in order to assess the impact of climate change. We focused on the impact of climate change on tourism because it has played an important role in the economy of the Pacific Islands. The Yaeyama Region, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan, was selected as the case study site. Two kinds of impact were assessed: change in probability of extreme climate phenomena and tourist satisfaction associated with weather. The database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and the questionnaire survey conducted by a local government were used for the assessment. The result indicated that the strength of extreme events would be increased, whereas the probability of occurrence would be decreased. This change should result in increase of the number of clear days and it could contribute to improve the tourist satisfaction.

Simulating the Generalized Gibbs Ensemble (GGE): A Hilbert space Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alba, Vincenzo

By combining classical Monte Carlo and Bethe ansatz techniques we devise a numerical method to construct the Truncated Generalized Gibbs Ensemble (TGGE) for the spin-1/2 isotropic Heisenberg (XXX) chain. The key idea is to sample the Hilbert space of the model with the appropriate GGE probability measure. The method can be extended to other integrable systems, such as the Lieb-Liniger model. We benchmark the approach focusing on GGE expectation values of several local observables. As finite-size effects decay exponentially with system size, moderately large chains are sufficient to extract thermodynamic quantities. The Monte Carlo results are in agreement with both the Thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz (TBA) and the Quantum Transfer Matrix approach (QTM). Remarkably, it is possible to extract in a simple way the steady-state Bethe-Gaudin-Takahashi (BGT) roots distributions, which encode complete information about the GGE expectation values in the thermodynamic limit. Finally, it is straightforward to simulate extensions of the GGE, in which, besides the local integral of motion (local charges), one includes arbitrary functions of the BGT roots. As an example, we include in the GGE the first non-trivial quasi-local integral of motion.

Complex structural dynamics of nanocatalysts revealed in Operando conditions by correlated imaging and spectroscopy probes

DOE PAGES

Li, Y.; Zakharov, D.; Zhao, S.; ...

2015-06-29

Understanding how heterogeneous catalysts change size, shape and structure during chemical reactions is limited by the paucity of methods for studying catalytic ensembles in working state, that is, in operando conditions. Here by a correlated use of synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy and scanning transmission electron microscopy in operando conditions, we quantitatively describe the complex structural dynamics of supported Pt catalysts exhibited during an exemplary catalytic reaction—ethylene hydrogenation. This work exploits a microfabricated catalytic reactor compatible with both probes. The results demonstrate dynamic transformations of the ensemble of Pt clusters that spans a broad size range throughout changing reaction conditions. Lastly,more » this method is generalizable to quantitative operando studies of complex systems using a wide variety of X-ray and electron-based experimental probes.« less

Stability evaluation of short-circuiting gas metal arc welding based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yong; Wang, Kehong; Zhou, Zhilan; Zhou, Xiaoxiao; Fang, Jimi

2017-03-01

The arc of gas metal arc welding (GMAW) contains abundant information about its stability and droplet transition, which can be effectively characterized by extracting the arc electrical signals. In this study, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was used to evaluate the stability of electrical current signals. The welding electrical signals were first decomposed by EEMD, and then transformed to a Hilbert-Huang spectrum and a marginal spectrum. The marginal spectrum is an approximate distribution of amplitude with frequency of signals, and can be described by a marginal index. Analysis of various welding process parameters showed that the marginal index of current signals increased when the welding process was more stable, and vice versa. Thus EEMD combined with the marginal index can effectively uncover the stability and droplet transition of GMAW.

Relaxation in a two-body Fermi-Pasta-Ulam system in the canonical ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Surajit; Barrett, Tyler

The study of the dynamics of the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) chain remains a challenging problem. Inspired by the recent work of Onorato et al. on thermalization in the FPU system, we report a study of relaxation processes in a two-body FPU system in the canonical ensemble. The studies have been carried out using the Recurrence Relations Method introduced by Zwanzig, Mori, Lee and others. We have obtained exact analytical expressions for the first thirteen levels of the continued fraction representation of the Laplace transformed velocity autocorrelation function of the system. Using simple and reasonable extrapolation schemes and known limits we are able to estimate the relaxation behavior of the oscillators in the two-body FPU system and recover the expected behavior in the harmonic limit. Generalizations of the calculations to larger systems will be discussed.

DART: Tools and Support for Ensemble Data Assimilation Research, Operations, and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoar, T. J.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Raeder, K.; Kershaw, H.; Romine, G. S.; Mizzi, A. P.; Chatterjee, A.; Karspeck, A. R.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Ha, S. Y.; Barre, J.; Gaubert, B.

2014-12-01

The Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) is a community facility for ensemble data assimilation developed and supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. DART provides a comprehensive suite of software, documentation, examples and tutorials that can be used for ensemble data assimilation research, operations, and education. Scientists and software engineers from the Data Assimilation Research Section at NCAR are available to actively support DART users who want to use existing DART products or develop their own new applications. Current DART users range from university professors teaching data assimilation, to individual graduate students working with simple models, through national laboratories doing operational prediction with large state-of-the-art models. DART runs efficiently on many computational platforms ranging from laptops through thousands of cores on the newest supercomputers. This poster focuses on several recent research activities using DART with geophysical models. First, DART is being used with the Community Atmosphere Model Spectral Element (CAM-SE) and Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) global atmospheric models that support locally enhanced grid resolution. Initial results from ensemble assimilation with both models are presented. DART is also being used to produce ensemble analyses of atmospheric tracers, in particular CO, in both the global CAM-Chem model and the regional Weather Research and Forecast with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model by assimilating observations from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instruments. Results from ensemble analyses in both models are presented. An interface between DART and the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model has been completed and ensemble land surface analyses with DART/CABLE will be discussed. Finally, an update on ensemble analyses in the fully-coupled Community Earth System (CESM) is presented. The poster includes instructions on how to get started using DART for research or educational applications.

An evaluation of soil water outlooks for winter wheat in south-eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Western, A. W.; Dassanayake, K. B.; Perera, K. C.; Alves, O.; Young, G.; Argent, R.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Soil moisture is a key limiting resource for rain-fed cropping in Australian broad-acre cropping zones. Seasonal rainfall and temperature outlooks are standard operational services offered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and are routinely used to support agricultural decisions. This presentation examines the performance of proposed soil water seasonal outlooks in the context of wheat cropping in south-eastern Australia (autumn planting, late spring harvest). We used weather ensembles simulated by the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), as input to the Agricultural Production Simulator (APSIM) to construct ensemble soil water "outlooks" at twenty sites. Hindcasts were made over a 33 year period using the 33 POAMA ensemble members. The overall modelling flow involved: 1. Downscaling of the daily weather series (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, humidity, radiation) from the ~250km POAMA grid scale to a local weather station using quantile-quantile correction. This was based on a 33 year observation record extracted from the SILO data drill product. 2. Using APSIM to produce soil water ensembles from the downscaled weather ensembles. A warm up period of 5 years of observed weather was followed by a 9 month hindcast period based on each ensemble member. 3. The soil water ensembles were summarized by estimating the proportion of outlook ensembles in each climatological tercile, where the climatology was constructed using APSIM and observed weather from the 33 years of hindcasts at the relevant site. 4. The soil water outlooks were evaluated for different lead times and months using a "truth" run of APSIM based on observed weather. Outlooks generally have useful some forecast skill for lead times of up to two-three months, except late spring; in line with current useful lead times for rainfall outlooks. Better performance was found in summer and autumn when vegetation cover and water use is low.

Ensemble averaging and stacking of ARIMA and GSTAR model for rainfall forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraeni, D.; Kurnia, I. F.; Hadi, A. F.

2018-04-01

Unpredictable rainfall changes can affect human activities, such as in agriculture, aviation, shipping which depend on weather forecasts. Therefore, we need forecasting tools with high accuracy in predicting the rainfall in the future. This research focus on local forcasting of the rainfall at Jember in 2005 until 2016, from 77 rainfall stations. The rainfall here was not only related to the occurrence of the previous of its stations, but also related to others, it’s called the spatial effect. The aim of this research is to apply the GSTAR model, to determine whether there are some correlations of spatial effect between one to another stations. The GSTAR model is an expansion of the space-time model that combines the time-related effects, the locations (stations) in a time series effects, and also the location it self. The GSTAR model will also be compared to the ARIMA model that completely ignores the independent variables. The forcested value of the ARIMA and of the GSTAR models then being combined using the ensemble forecasting technique. The averaging and stacking method of ensemble forecasting method here provide us the best model with higher acuracy model that has the smaller RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value. Finally, with the best model we can offer a better local rainfall forecasting in Jember for the future.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou Fengji; Hogg, David W.; Goodman, Jonathan

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proves to be powerful for Bayesian inference and in particular for exoplanet radial velocity fitting because MCMC provides more statistical information and makes better use of data than common approaches like chi-square fitting. However, the nonlinear density functions encountered in these problems can make MCMC time-consuming. In this paper, we apply an ensemble sampler respecting affine invariance to orbital parameter extraction from radial velocity data. This new sampler has only one free parameter, and does not require much tuning for good performance, which is important for automatization. The autocorrelation time of this sampler is approximatelymore » the same for all parameters and far smaller than Metropolis-Hastings, which means it requires many fewer function calls to produce the same number of independent samples. The affine-invariant sampler speeds up MCMC by hundreds of times compared with Metropolis-Hastings in the same computing situation. This novel sampler would be ideal for projects involving large data sets such as statistical investigations of planet distribution. The biggest obstacle to ensemble samplers is the existence of multiple local optima; we present a clustering technique to deal with local optima by clustering based on the likelihood of the walkers in the ensemble. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the sampler on real radial velocity data.« less

Brain science: from the very small to the very large.

PubMed

Kreiman, Gabriel

2007-09-04

We still lack a clear understanding of how brain imaging signals relate to neuronal activity. Recent work shows that the simultaneous activity of neuronal ensembles strongly correlates with local field potentials and imaging measurements.

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

PubMed

Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

2012-12-11

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

PubMed Central

Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

2012-01-01

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza. PMID:23184969

Inertial electrostatic confinement and nuclear fusion in the interelectrode plasma of a nanosecond vacuum discharge. I: Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurilenkov, Yu. K.; Skowronek, M.

2010-12-15

Properties of an aerosol substance with a high power density in the interelectrode space of a nano- second vacuum discharge are studied. The possibilities of emission and/or trapping of fast ions and hard X-rays by ensembles of clusters and microparticles are analyzed. The possibility of simultaneous partial trapping (diffusion) of X-rays and complete trapping of fast ions by a cluster ensemble is demonstrated experimentally. Due to such trapping, the aerosol ensemble transforms into a 'dusty' microreactor that can be used to investigate a certain class of nuclear processes, including collisional DD microfusion. Operating regimes of such a microreactor and theirmore » reproducibility were studied. On the whole, the generation efficiency of hard X-rays and neutrons in the proposed vacuum discharge with a hollow cathode can be higher by two orders of magnitude than that in a system 'high-power laser pulse-cluster cloud.' Multiply repeated nuclear fusion accompanied by pulsating DD neutron emission was reproducibly detected in experiment. Ion acceleration mechanisms in the interelectrode space and the fundamental role of the virtual cathode in observed nuclear fusion processes are discussed.« less

Progress in fast, accurate multi-scale climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Collins, W. D.; Johansen, H.; Evans, K. J.; ...

2015-06-01

We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to contribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth with these computational improvements include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enablingmore » improved accuracy and fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allowing more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, partnerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures such as many-core processors and GPUs. As a result, approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

Mechanochemical formation of heterogeneous diamond structures during rapid uniaxial compression in graphite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroonblawd, Matthew P.; Goldman, Nir

2018-05-01

We predict mechanochemical formation of heterogeneous diamond structures from rapid uniaxial compression in graphite using quantum molecular dynamics simulations. Ensembles of simulations reveal the formation of different diamondlike products starting from thermal graphite crystal configurations. We identify distinct classes of final products with characteristic probabilities of formation, stress states, and electrical properties and show through simulations of rapid quenching that these products are nominally stable and can be recovered at room temperature and pressure. Some of the diamond products exhibit significant disorder and partial closure of the energy gap between the highest-occupied and lowest-unoccupied molecular orbitals (i.e., the HOMO-LUMO gap). Seeding atomic vacancies in graphite significantly biases toward forming products with small HOMO-LUMO gap. We show that a strong correlation between the HOMO-LUMO gap and disorder in tetrahedral bonding configurations informs which kinds of structural defects are associated with gap closure. The rapid diffusionless transformation of graphite is found to lock vacancy defects into the final diamond structure, resulting in configurations that prevent s p3 bonding and lead to localized HOMO and LUMO states with a small gap.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, William D; Johansen, Hans; Evans, Katherine J

We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to con- tribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enabling improved accuracy andmore » fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allow more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, part- nerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures, such as many-core processors and GPUs, so that these approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

Optical and structural properties of ensembles of colloidal Ag{sub 2}S quantum dots in gelatin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ovchinnikov, O. V., E-mail: Ovchinnikov-O-V@rambler.ru; Smirnov, M. S.; Shapiro, B. I.

2015-03-15

The size dependences of the absorption and luminescence spectra of ensembles of hydrophilic colloidal Ag{sub 2}S quantum dots produced by the sol-gel method and dispersed in gelatin are analyzed. By X-ray diffraction analysis and transmission electron microscopy, the formation of core/shell nanoparticles is detected. The characteristic feature of the nanoparticles is the formation of crystalline cores, 1.5–2.0 nm in dimensions, and shells of gelatin and its complexes with the components of synthesis. The observed slight size dependence of the position of infrared photoluminescence bands (in the range 1000–1400 nm) in the ensembles of hydrophilic colloidal Ag{sub 2}S quantum dots ismore » explained within the context of the model of the radiative recombination of electrons localized at structural and impurity defects with free holes.« less

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: facilitating the prediction of air quality from global to local scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelen, R. J.; Peuch, V. H.

2017-12-01

The European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) operationally provides daily forecasts of global atmospheric composition and regional air quality. The global forecasting system is using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which is used for numerical weather prediction and which has been extended with modules for atmospheric chemistry, aerosols and greenhouse gases. The regional forecasts are produced by an ensemble of seven operational European air quality models that take their boundary conditions from the global system and provide an ensemble median with ensemble spread as their main output. Both the global and regional forecasting systems are feeding their output into air quality models on a variety of scales in various parts of the world. We will introduce the CAMS service chain and provide illustrations of its use in downstream applications. Both the usage of the daily forecasts and the usage of global and regional reanalyses will be addressed.

Large-scale recording of neuronal ensembles.

PubMed

Buzsáki, György

2004-05-01

How does the brain orchestrate perceptions, thoughts and actions from the spiking activity of its neurons? Early single-neuron recording research treated spike pattern variability as noise that needed to be averaged out to reveal the brain's representation of invariant input. Another view is that variability of spikes is centrally coordinated and that this brain-generated ensemble pattern in cortical structures is itself a potential source of cognition. Large-scale recordings from neuronal ensembles now offer the opportunity to test these competing theoretical frameworks. Currently, wire and micro-machined silicon electrode arrays can record from large numbers of neurons and monitor local neural circuits at work. Achieving the full potential of massively parallel neuronal recordings, however, will require further development of the neuron-electrode interface, automated and efficient spike-sorting algorithms for effective isolation and identification of single neurons, and new mathematical insights for the analysis of network properties.

Delineating Facies Spatial Distribution by Integrating Ensemble Data Assimilation and Indicator Geostatistics with Level Set Transformation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammond, Glenn Edward; Song, Xuehang; Ye, Ming

A new approach is developed to delineate the spatial distribution of discrete facies (geological units that have unique distributions of hydraulic, physical, and/or chemical properties) conditioned not only on direct data (measurements directly related to facies properties, e.g., grain size distribution obtained from borehole samples) but also on indirect data (observations indirectly related to facies distribution, e.g., hydraulic head and tracer concentration). Our method integrates for the first time ensemble data assimilation with traditional transition probability-based geostatistics. The concept of level set is introduced to build shape parameterization that allows transformation between discrete facies indicators and continuous random variables. Themore » spatial structure of different facies is simulated by indicator models using conditioning points selected adaptively during the iterative process of data assimilation. To evaluate the new method, a two-dimensional semi-synthetic example is designed to estimate the spatial distribution and permeability of two distinct facies from transient head data induced by pumping tests. The example demonstrates that our new method adequately captures the spatial pattern of facies distribution by imposing spatial continuity through conditioning points. The new method also reproduces the overall response in hydraulic head field with better accuracy compared to data assimilation with no constraints on spatial continuity on facies.« less

Explosion localization via infrasound.

PubMed

Szuberla, Curt A L; Olson, John V; Arnoult, Kenneth M

2009-11-01

Two acoustic source localization techniques were applied to infrasonic data and their relative performance was assessed. The standard approach for low-frequency localization uses an ensemble of small arrays to separately estimate far-field source bearings, resulting in a solution from the various back azimuths. This method was compared to one developed by the authors that treats the smaller subarrays as a single, meta-array. In numerical simulation and a field experiment, the latter technique was found to provide improved localization precision everywhere in the vicinity of a 3-km-aperture meta-array, often by an order of magnitude.

The Rise of Complexity in Flood Forecasting: Opportunities, Challenges and Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Operational flood forecasting is currently undergoing a major transformation. Most national flood forecasting services have relied for decades on lumped, highly calibrated conceptual hydrological models running on local office computing resources, providing deterministic streamflow predictions at gauged river locations that are important to stakeholders and emergency managers. A variety of recent technological advances now make it possible to run complex, high-to-hyper-resolution models for operational hydrologic prediction over large domains, and the US National Weather Service is now attempting to use hyper-resolution models to create new forecast services and products. Yet other `increased-complexity' forecasting strategies also exist that pursue different tradeoffs between model complexity (i.e., spatial resolution, physics) and streamflow forecast system objectives. There is currently a pressing need for a greater understanding in the hydrology community of the opportunities, challenges and tradeoffs associated with these different forecasting approaches, and for a greater participation by the hydrology community in evaluating, guiding and implementing these approaches. Intermediate-resolution forecast systems, for instance, use distributed land surface model (LSM) physics but retain the agility to deploy ensemble methods (including hydrologic data assimilation and hindcast-based post-processing). Fully coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, another example, use still coarser LSMs to produce ensemble streamflow predictions either at the model scale or after sub-grid scale runoff routing. Based on the direct experience of the authors and colleagues in research and operational forecasting, this presentation describes examples of different streamflow forecast paradigms, from the traditional to the recent hyper-resolution, to illustrate the range of choices facing forecast system developers. We also discuss the degree to which the strengths and weaknesses of each strategy map onto the requirements for different types of forecasting services (e.g., flash flooding, river flooding, seasonal water supply prediction).

Local chemical potential, local hardness, and dual descriptors in temperature dependent chemical reactivity theory.

PubMed

Franco-Pérez, Marco; Ayers, Paul W; Gázquez, José L; Vela, Alberto

2017-05-31

In this work we establish a new temperature dependent procedure within the grand canonical ensemble, to avoid the Dirac delta function exhibited by some of the second order chemical reactivity descriptors based on density functional theory, at a temperature of 0 K. Through the definition of a local chemical potential designed to integrate to the global temperature dependent electronic chemical potential, the local chemical hardness is expressed in terms of the derivative of this local chemical potential with respect to the average number of electrons. For the three-ground-states ensemble model, this local hardness contains a term that is equal to the one intuitively proposed by Meneses, Tiznado, Contreras and Fuentealba, which integrates to the global hardness given by the difference in the first ionization potential, I, and the electron affinity, A, at any temperature. However, in the present approach one finds an additional temperature-dependent term that introduces changes at the local level and integrates to zero. Additionally, a τ-hard dual descriptor and a τ-soft dual descriptor given in terms of the product of the global hardness and the global softness multiplied by the dual descriptor, respectively, are derived. Since all these reactivity indices are given by expressions composed of terms that correspond to products of the global properties multiplied by the electrophilic or nucleophilic Fukui functions, they may be useful for studying and comparing equivalent sites in different chemical environments.

Fast multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition for the analysis of big spatio-temporal datasets.

PubMed

Wu, Zhaohua; Feng, Jiaxin; Qiao, Fangli; Tan, Zhe-Min

2016-04-13

In this big data era, it is more urgent than ever to solve two major issues: (i) fast data transmission methods that can facilitate access to data from non-local sources and (ii) fast and efficient data analysis methods that can reveal the key information from the available data for particular purposes. Although approaches in different fields to address these two questions may differ significantly, the common part must involve data compression techniques and a fast algorithm. This paper introduces the recently developed adaptive and spatio-temporally local analysis method, namely the fast multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD), for the analysis of a large spatio-temporal dataset. The original MEEMD uses ensemble empirical mode decomposition to decompose time series at each spatial grid and then pieces together the temporal-spatial evolution of climate variability and change on naturally separated timescales, which is computationally expensive. By taking advantage of the high efficiency of the expression using principal component analysis/empirical orthogonal function analysis for spatio-temporally coherent data, we design a lossy compression method for climate data to facilitate its non-local transmission. We also explain the basic principles behind the fast MEEMD through decomposing principal components instead of original grid-wise time series to speed up computation of MEEMD. Using a typical climate dataset as an example, we demonstrate that our newly designed methods can (i) compress data with a compression rate of one to two orders; and (ii) speed-up the MEEMD algorithm by one to two orders. © 2016 The Authors.

Improvement of Disease Prediction and Modeling through the Use of Meteorological Ensembles: Human Plague in Uganda

PubMed Central

Moore, Sean M.; Monaghan, Andrew; Griffith, Kevin S.; Apangu, Titus; Mead, Paul S.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2012-01-01

Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases. PMID:23024750

A second-order unconstrained optimization method for canonical-ensemble density-functional methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nygaard, Cecilie R.; Olsen, Jeppe

2013-03-01

A second order converging method of ensemble optimization (SOEO) in the framework of Kohn-Sham Density-Functional Theory is presented, where the energy is minimized with respect to an ensemble density matrix. It is general in the sense that the number of fractionally occupied orbitals is not predefined, but rather it is optimized by the algorithm. SOEO is a second order Newton-Raphson method of optimization, where both the form of the orbitals and the occupation numbers are optimized simultaneously. To keep the occupation numbers between zero and two, a set of occupation angles is defined, from which the occupation numbers are expressed as trigonometric functions. The total number of electrons is controlled by a built-in second order restriction of the Newton-Raphson equations, which can be deactivated in the case of a grand-canonical ensemble (where the total number of electrons is allowed to change). To test the optimization method, dissociation curves for diatomic carbon are produced using different functionals for the exchange-correlation energy. These curves show that SOEO favors symmetry broken pure-state solutions when using functionals with exact exchange such as Hartree-Fock and Becke three-parameter Lee-Yang-Parr. This is explained by an unphysical contribution to the exact exchange energy from interactions between fractional occupations. For functionals without exact exchange, such as local density approximation or Becke Lee-Yang-Parr, ensemble solutions are favored at interatomic distances larger than the equilibrium distance. Calculations on the chromium dimer are also discussed. They show that SOEO is able to converge to ensemble solutions for systems that are more complicated than diatomic carbon.

Stimuli Reduce the Dimensionality of Cortical Activity

PubMed Central

Mazzucato, Luca; Fontanini, Alfredo; La Camera, Giancarlo

2016-01-01

The activity of ensembles of simultaneously recorded neurons can be represented as a set of points in the space of firing rates. Even though the dimension of this space is equal to the ensemble size, neural activity can be effectively localized on smaller subspaces. The dimensionality of the neural space is an important determinant of the computational tasks supported by the neural activity. Here, we investigate the dimensionality of neural ensembles from the sensory cortex of alert rats during periods of ongoing (inter-trial) and stimulus-evoked activity. We find that dimensionality grows linearly with ensemble size, and grows significantly faster during ongoing activity compared to evoked activity. We explain these results using a spiking network model based on a clustered architecture. The model captures the difference in growth rate between ongoing and evoked activity and predicts a characteristic scaling with ensemble size that could be tested in high-density multi-electrode recordings. Moreover, we present a simple theory that predicts the existence of an upper bound on dimensionality. This upper bound is inversely proportional to the amount of pair-wise correlations and, compared to a homogeneous network without clusters, it is larger by a factor equal to the number of clusters. The empirical estimation of such bounds depends on the number and duration of trials and is well predicted by the theory. Together, these results provide a framework to analyze neural dimensionality in alert animals, its behavior under stimulus presentation, and its theoretical dependence on ensemble size, number of clusters, and correlations in spiking network models. PMID:26924968

Flood susceptibility mapping using a novel ensemble weights-of-evidence and support vector machine models in GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehrany, Mahyat Shafapour; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Jebur, Mustafa Neamah

2014-05-01

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters that occur frequently in Terengganu, Malaysia. Recently, ensemble based techniques are getting extremely popular in flood modeling. In this paper, weights-of-evidence (WoE) model was utilized first, to assess the impact of classes of each conditioning factor on flooding through bivariate statistical analysis (BSA). Then, these factors were reclassified using the acquired weights and entered into the support vector machine (SVM) model to evaluate the correlation between flood occurrence and each conditioning factor. Through this integration, the weak point of WoE can be solved and the performance of the SVM will be enhanced. The spatial database included flood inventory, slope, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), altitude, curvature, distance from the river, geology, rainfall, land use/cover (LULC), and soil type. Four kernel types of SVM (linear kernel (LN), polynomial kernel (PL), radial basis function kernel (RBF), and sigmoid kernel (SIG)) were used to investigate the performance of each kernel type. The efficiency of the new ensemble WoE and SVM method was tested using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. The validation results proved the strength and efficiency of the ensemble method over the individual methods. The best results were obtained from RBF kernel when compared with the other kernel types. Success rate and prediction rate for ensemble WoE and RBF-SVM method were 96.48% and 95.67% respectively. The proposed ensemble flood susceptibility mapping method could assist researchers and local governments in flood mitigation strategies.

Stimuli Reduce the Dimensionality of Cortical Activity.

PubMed

Mazzucato, Luca; Fontanini, Alfredo; La Camera, Giancarlo

2016-01-01

The activity of ensembles of simultaneously recorded neurons can be represented as a set of points in the space of firing rates. Even though the dimension of this space is equal to the ensemble size, neural activity can be effectively localized on smaller subspaces. The dimensionality of the neural space is an important determinant of the computational tasks supported by the neural activity. Here, we investigate the dimensionality of neural ensembles from the sensory cortex of alert rats during periods of ongoing (inter-trial) and stimulus-evoked activity. We find that dimensionality grows linearly with ensemble size, and grows significantly faster during ongoing activity compared to evoked activity. We explain these results using a spiking network model based on a clustered architecture. The model captures the difference in growth rate between ongoing and evoked activity and predicts a characteristic scaling with ensemble size that could be tested in high-density multi-electrode recordings. Moreover, we present a simple theory that predicts the existence of an upper bound on dimensionality. This upper bound is inversely proportional to the amount of pair-wise correlations and, compared to a homogeneous network without clusters, it is larger by a factor equal to the number of clusters. The empirical estimation of such bounds depends on the number and duration of trials and is well predicted by the theory. Together, these results provide a framework to analyze neural dimensionality in alert animals, its behavior under stimulus presentation, and its theoretical dependence on ensemble size, number of clusters, and correlations in spiking network models.

Assessment of Mars Atmospheric Temperature Retrievals from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer Radiances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Matthew J.; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Weisenstein, Deborah; Uymin, Gennady; Moncet, Jean-Luc

2012-01-01

Motivated by the needs of Mars data assimilation. particularly quantification of measurement errors and generation of averaging kernels. we have evaluated atmospheric temperature retrievals from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) radiances. Multiple sets of retrievals have been considered in this study; (1) retrievals available from the Planetary Data System (PDS), (2) retrievals based on variants of the retrieval algorithm used to generate the PDS retrievals, and (3) retrievals produced using the Mars 1-Dimensional Retrieval (M1R) algorithm based on the Optimal Spectral Sampling (OSS ) forward model. The retrieved temperature profiles are compared to the MGS Radio Science (RS) temperature profiles. For the samples tested, the M1R temperature profiles can be made to agree within 2 K with the RS temperature profiles, but only after tuning the prior and error statistics. Use of a global prior that does not take into account the seasonal dependence leads errors of up 6 K. In polar samples. errors relative to the RS temperature profiles are even larger. In these samples, the PDS temperature profiles also exhibit a poor fit with RS temperatures. This fit is worse than reported in previous studies, indicating that the lack of fit is due to a bias correction to TES radiances implemented after 2004. To explain the differences between the PDS and Ml R temperatures, the algorithms are compared directly, with the OSS forward model inserted into the PDS algorithm. Factors such as the filtering parameter, the use of linear versus nonlinear constrained inversion, and the choice of the forward model, are found to contribute heavily to the differences in the temperature profiles retrieved in the polar regions, resulting in uncertainties of up to 6 K. Even outside the poles, changes in the a priori statistics result in different profile shapes which all fit the radiances within the specified error. The importance of the a priori statistics prevents reliable global retrievals based a single a priori and strongly implies that a robust science analysis must instead rely on retrievals employing localized a priori information, for example from an ensemble based data assimilation system such as the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF).

A continuum theory of edge dislocations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdichevsky, V. L.

2017-09-01

Continuum theory of dislocation aims to describe the behavior of large ensembles of dislocations. This task is far from completion, and, most likely, does not have a "universal solution", which is applicable to any dislocation ensemble. In this regards it is important to have guiding lines set by benchmark cases, where the transition from a discrete set of dislocations to a continuum description is made rigorously. Two such cases have been considered recently: equilibrium of dislocation walls and screw dislocations in beams. In this paper one more case is studied, equilibrium of a large set of 2D edge dislocations placed randomly in a 2D bounded region. The major characteristic of interest is energy of dislocation ensemble, because it determines the structure of continuum equations. The homogenized energy functional is obtained for the periodic dislocation ensembles with a random contents of the periodic cell. Parameters of the periodic structure can change slowly on distances of order of the size of periodic cells. The energy functional is obtained by the variational-asymptotic method. Equilibrium positions are local minima of energy. It is confirmed the earlier assertion that energy density of the system is the sum of elastic energy of averaged elastic strains and microstructure energy, which is elastic energy of the neutralized dislocation system, i.e. the dislocation system placed in a constant dislocation density field making the averaged dislocation density zero. The computation of energy is reduced to solution of a variational cell problem. This problem is solved analytically. The solution is used to investigate stability of simple dislocation arrays, i.e. arrays with one dislocation in the periodic cell. The relations obtained yield two outcomes: First, there is a state parameter of the system, dislocation polarization; averaged stresses affect only dislocation polarization and cannot change other characteristics of the system. Second, the structure of dislocation phase space is strikingly simple. Dislocation phase space is split in a family of subspaces corresponding to constant values of dislocation polarizations; in each equipolarization subspace there are many local minima of energy; for zero external stresses the system is stuck in a local minimum of energy; for non-zero slowly changing external stress, dislocation polarization evolves, while the system moves over local energy minima of equipolarization subspaces. Such a simple picture of dislocation dynamics is due to the presence of two time scales, slow evolution of dislocation polarization and fast motion of the system over local minima of energy. The existence of two time scales is justified for a neutral system of edge dislocations.

Determination of ensemble-average pairwise root mean-square deviation from experimental B-factors.

PubMed

Kuzmanic, Antonija; Zagrovic, Bojan

2010-03-03

Root mean-square deviation (RMSD) after roto-translational least-squares fitting is a measure of global structural similarity of macromolecules used commonly. On the other hand, experimental x-ray B-factors are used frequently to study local structural heterogeneity and dynamics in macromolecules by providing direct information about root mean-square fluctuations (RMSF) that can also be calculated from molecular dynamics simulations. We provide a mathematical derivation showing that, given a set of conservative assumptions, a root mean-square ensemble-average of an all-against-all distribution of pairwise RMSD for a single molecular species, (1/2), is directly related to average B-factors () and (1/2). We show this relationship and explore its limits of validity on a heterogeneous ensemble of structures taken from molecular dynamics simulations of villin headpiece generated using distributed-computing techniques and the Folding@Home cluster. Our results provide a basis for quantifying global structural diversity of macromolecules in crystals directly from x-ray experiments, and we show this on a large set of structures taken from the Protein Data Bank. In particular, we show that the ensemble-average pairwise backbone RMSD for a microscopic ensemble underlying a typical protein x-ray structure is approximately 1.1 A, under the assumption that the principal contribution to experimental B-factors is conformational variability. 2010 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.