Community stability and selective extinction during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roopnarine, Peter D.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.

2015-10-01

The fossil record contains exemplars of extreme biodiversity crises. Here, we examined the stability of terrestrial paleocommunities from South Africa during Earth's most severe mass extinction, the Permian-Triassic. We show that stability depended critically on functional diversity and patterns of guild interaction, regardless of species richness. Paleocommunities exhibited less transient instability—relative to model communities with alternative community organization—and significantly greater probabilities of being locally stable during the mass extinction. Functional patterns that have evolved during an ecosystem's history support significantly more stable communities than hypothetical alternatives.

A numerical study of mixing in stationary, nonpremixed, turbulent reacting flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overholt, Matthew Ryan

1998-10-01

In this work a detailed numerical study is made of a statistically-stationary, non-premixed, turbulent reacting model flow known as Periodic Reaction Zones. The mixture fraction-progress variable approach is used, with a mean gradient in the mixture fraction and a model, single-step, reversible, finite-rate thermochemistry, yielding both stationary and local extinction behavior. The passive scalar is studied first, using a statistical forcing scheme to achieve stationarity of the velocity field. Multiple independent direct numerical simulations (DNS) are performed for a wide range of Reynolds numbers with a number of results including a bilinear model for scalar mixing jointly conditioned on the scalar and x2-component of velocity, Gaussian scalar probability density function tails which were anticipated to be exponential, and the quantification of the dissipation of scalar flux. A new deterministic forcing scheme for DNS is then developed which yields reduced fluctuations in many quantities and a more natural evolution of the velocity fields. This forcing method is used for the final portion of this work. DNS results for Periodic Reaction Zones are compared with the Conditional Moment Closure (CMC) model, the Quasi-Equilibrium Distributed Reaction (QEDR) model, and full probability density function (PDF) simulations using the Euclidean Minimum Spanning Tree (EMST) and the Interaction by Exchange with the Mean (IEM) mixing models. It is shown that CMC and QEDR results based on the local scalar dissipation match DNS wherever local extinction is not present. However, due to the large spatial variations of scalar dissipation, and hence local Damkohler number, local extinction is present even when the global Damkohler number is twenty-five times the critical value for extinction. Finally, in the PDF simulations the EMST mixing model closely reproduces CMC and DNS results when local extinction is not present, whereas the IEM model results in large error.

Testing metapopulation concepts: effects of patch characteristics and neighborhood occupancy on the dynamics of an endangered lagomorph

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Hughes, Phillip T.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.

2014-01-01

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model selection to identify important drivers of population turnover and estimate the effective neighborhood size for this system. Several key relationships related to patch size and isolation that are often assumed in metapopulation models were supported: patch size was negatively related to the probability of extinction and positively related to colonization, and estimated occupancy of neighboring patches was positively related to colonization and negatively related to extinction probabilities. This latter relationship suggested the existence of rescue effects. In our study system, we inferred that coastal patches experienced higher probabilities of extinction and colonization than interior patches. Interior patches exhibited higher occupancy probabilities and may serve as refugia, permitting colonization of coastal patches following disturbances such as hurricanes and storm surges. Our modeling approach should be useful for incorporating neighbor occupancy into future metapopulation analyses and in dealing with other historic occupancy surveys that may not include the recommended levels of sampling replication.

Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

PubMed

Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

2012-04-01

Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Perturbation analysis for patch occupancy dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Nichols, James D.; McIntyre, Carol L.; Ferraz, Goncalo; Hines, James E.

2009-01-01

Perturbation analysis is a powerful tool to study population and community dynamics. This article describes expressions for sensitivity metrics reflecting changes in equilibrium occupancy resulting from small changes in the vital rates of patch occupancy dynamics (i.e., probabilities of local patch colonization and extinction). We illustrate our approach with a case study of occupancy dynamics of Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) nesting territories. Examination of the hypothesis of system equilibrium suggests that the system satisfies equilibrium conditions. Estimates of vital rates obtained using patch occupancy models are used to estimate equilibrium patch occupancy of eagles. We then compute estimates of sensitivity metrics and discuss their implications for eagle population ecology and management. Finally, we discuss the intuition underlying our sensitivity metrics and then provide examples of ecological questions that can be addressed using perturbation analyses. For instance, the sensitivity metrics lead to predictions about the relative importance of local colonization and local extinction probabilities in influencing equilibrium occupancy for rare and common species.

Monitoring multiple species: Estimating state variables and exploring the efficacy of a monitoring program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattfeldt, S.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Grant, E.H.C.

2009-01-01

Monitoring programs have the potential to identify population declines and differentiate among the possible cause(s) of these declines. Recent criticisms regarding the design of monitoring programs have highlighted a failure to clearly state objectives and to address detectability and spatial sampling issues. Here, we incorporate these criticisms to design an efficient monitoring program whose goals are to determine environmental factors which influence the current distribution and measure change in distributions over time for a suite of amphibians. In designing the study we (1) specified a priori factors that may relate to occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities and (2) used the data collected (incorporating detectability) to address our scientific questions and adjust our sampling protocols. Our results highlight the role of wetland hydroperiod and other local covariates in the probability of amphibian occupancy. There was a change in overall occupancy probabilities for most species over the first three years of monitoring. Most colonization and extinction estimates were constant over time (years) and space (among wetlands), with one notable exception: local extinction probabilities for Rana clamitans were lower for wetlands with longer hydroperiods. We used information from the target system to generate scenarios of population change and gauge the ability of the current sampling to meet monitoring goals. Our results highlight the limitations of the current sampling design, emphasizing the need for long-term efforts, with periodic re-evaluation of the program in a framework that can inform management decisions.

Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

PubMed

Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-07-01

The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an extinction debt.

Estimating rates of local extinction and colonization in colonial species and an extension to the metapopulation and community levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbraud, C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Hafner, H.

2003-01-01

Coloniality has mainly been studied from an evolutionary perspective, but relatively few studies have developed methods for modelling colony dynamics. Changes in number of colonies over time provide a useful tool for predicting and evaluating the responses of colonial species to management and to environmental disturbance. Probabilistic Markov process models have been recently used to estimate colony site dynamics using presence-absence data when all colonies are detected in sampling efforts. Here, we define and develop two general approaches for the modelling and analysis of colony dynamics for sampling situations in which all colonies are, and are not, detected. For both approaches, we develop a general probabilistic model for the data and then constrain model parameters based on various hypotheses about colony dynamics. We use Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the adequacy of the constrained models. The models are parameterised with conditional probabilities of local colony site extinction and colonization. Presence-absence data arising from Pollock's robust capture-recapture design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of extinction, colonization, and detection probabilities when not all colonies are detected. This second approach should be particularly useful in situations where detection probabilities are heterogeneous among colony sites. The general methodology is illustrated using presence-absence data on two species of herons (Purple Heron, Ardea purpurea and Grey Heron, Ardea cinerea). Estimates of the extinction and colonization rates showed interspecific differences and strong temporal and spatial variations. We were also able to test specific predictions about colony dynamics based on ideas about habitat change and metapopulation dynamics. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modelling for future work on colony dynamics. We also believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning metapopulation and community dynamics.

Landscape matrix mediates occupancy dynamics of Neotropical avian insectivores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Christina M.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Neel, Maile C.; Fagan, William F.; Marpa, Peter P.

2011-01-01

In addition to patch-level attributes (i.e., area and isolation), the nature of land cover between habitat patches (the matrix) may drive colonization and extinction dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Despite a long-standing recognition of matrix effects in fragmented systems, an understanding of the relative impacts of different types of land cover on patterns and dynamics of species occurrence remains limited. We employed multi-season occupancy models to determine the relative influence of patch area, patch isolation, within-patch vegetation structure, and landscape matrix on occupancy dynamics of nine Neotropical nsectivorous birds in 99 forest patches embedded in four matrix types (agriculture, suburban evelopment, bauxite mining, and forest) in central Jamaica. We found that within-patch vegetation structure and the matrix type between patches were more important than patch area and patch isolation in determining local colonization and local extinction probabilities, and that the effects of patch area, isolation, and vegetation structure on occupancy dynamics tended to be matrix and species dependent. Across the avian community, the landscape matrix influenced local extinction more than local colonization, indicating that extinction processes, rather than movement, likely drive interspecific differences in occupancy dynamics. These findings lend crucial empirical support to the hypothesis that species occupancy dynamics in fragmented systems may depend greatly upon the landscape context.

Neighborhood and habitat effects on vital rates: expansion of the Barred Owl in the Oregon Coast Ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Reid, Janice; Davis, Raymond; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Forsman, Eric

2012-01-01

In this paper, we modify dynamic occupancy models developed for detection-nondetection data to allow for the dependence of local vital rates on neighborhood occupancy, where neighborhood is defined very flexibly. Such dependence of occupancy dynamics on the status of a relevant neighborhood is pervasive, yet frequently ignored. Our framework permits joint inference about the importance of neighborhood effects and habitat covariates in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our specific motivation is the recent expansion of the Barred Owl (Strix varia) in western Oregon, USA, over the period 1990-2010. Because the focal period was one of dramatic range expansion and local population increase, the use of models that incorporate regional occupancy (sources of colonists) as determinants of dynamic rate parameters is especially appropriate. We began our analysis of 21 years of Barred Owl presence/nondetection data in the Tyee Density Study Area (TDSA) by testing a suite of six models that varied only in the covariates included in the modeling of detection probability. We then tested whether models that used regional occupancy as a covariate for colonization and extinction outperformed models with constant or year-specific colonization or extinction rates. Finally we tested whether habitat covariates improved the AIC of our models, focusing on which habitat covariates performed best, and whether the signs of habitat effects are consistent with a priori hypotheses. We conclude that all covariates used to model detection probability lead to improved AIC, that regional occupancy influences colonization and extinction rates, and that habitat plays an important role in determining extinction and colonization rates. As occupancy increases from low levels toward equilibrium, colonization increases and extinction decreases, presumably because there are more and more dispersing juveniles. While both rates are affected, colonization increases more than extinction decreases. Colonization is higher and extinction is lower in survey polygons with more riparian forest. The effects of riparian forest on extinction rates are greater than on colonization rates. Model results have implications for management of the invading Barred Owl, both through habitat alteration and removal.

Status assessment of the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia and other large mammals in the Kyrgyz Alay, using community knowledge corrected for imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taubmann, Julia; Sharma, Koustubh; Uulu, Kubanychbek Zhumabai; Hines, James; Mishra, Charudutt

2015-01-01

The Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia occurs in the Central Asian Mountains, which cover c. 2 million km2. Little is known about its status in the Kyrgyz Alay Mountains, a relatively narrow stretch of habitat connecting the southern and northern global ranges of the species. In 2010 we gathered information on current and past (1990, the last year of the Soviet Union) distributions of snow leopards and five sympatric large mammals across 14,000 km2 of the Kyrgyz Alay. We interviewed 95 key informants from local communities. Across 49 400-km2 grid cells we obtained 1,606 and 962 records of species occurrence (site use) in 1990 and 2010, respectively. The data were analysed using the multi-season site occupancy framework to incorporate uncertainty in detection across interviewees and time periods. High probability of use by snow leopards in the past was recorded in > 70% of the Kyrgyz Alay. Between the two sampling periods 39% of sites showed a high probability of local extinction of snow leopard. We also recorded high probability of local extinction of brown bear Ursus arctos (84% of sites) and Marco Polo sheep Ovis ammon polii (47% of sites), mainly in regions used intensively by people. Data indicated a high probability of local colonization by lynx Lynx lynx in 41% of the sites. Although wildlife has declined in areas of central and eastern Alay, regions in the north-west, and the northern and southern fringes appear to retain high conservation value.

An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction.

PubMed

Yalcin, Semra; Leroux, Shawn James

2018-04-14

Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-1985 and 2001-2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Knutson, M.G.; Franklin, A.B.

2003-01-01

Few species are likely to be so evident that they will always be detected when present. Failing to allow for the possibility that a target species was present, but undetected, at a site will lead to biased estimates of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. These population vital rates are often of interest in long-term monitoring programs and metapopulation studies. We present a model that enables direct estimation of these parameters when the probability of detecting the species is less than 1. The model does not require any assumptions of process stationarity, as do some previous methods, but does require detection/nondetection data to be collected in a manner similar to Pollock's robust design as used in mark?recapture studies. Via simulation, we show that the model provides good estimates of parameters for most scenarios considered. We illustrate the method with data from monitoring programs of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in northern California and tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum) in Minnesota, USA.

Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Knutson, M.G.; Franklin, A.B.

2003-01-01

Few species are likely to be so evident that they will always be defected when present: Failing to allow for the possibility that a target species was present, but undetected at a site will lead to biased estimates of site occupancy, colonization,and local extinction probabilities. These population vital rates are often of interest in long-term monitoring programs and metapopulation studies. We present a model that enables direct estimation of these parameters when the probability of detecting the species is less than 1. The model does not require any assumptions-of process stationarity, as do some previous methods, but does require detection/nondetection data to be collected in a-manner similar to. Pollock's robust design as used-in mark-recapture studies. Via simulation, we,show that the model provides good estimates of parameters for most scenarios considered. We illustrate the method with data from monitoring programs of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in northern California and tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum) in Minnesota, USA.

Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2015-01-01

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of extirpation for a local population may rapidly increase with only minimal increases in wind mortality. Conservation biologists and wildlife managers may need to consider this mortality pattern when issuing take permits and developing monitoring protocols for wind facilities. We also describe how our branching process models may be generalized across a wider range of species for a larger assessment project and then describe how our methods may be applied to other stressors in addition to wind.

Testing for variation in taxonomic extinction probabilities: a suggested methodology and some results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Nichols, J.D.

1984-01-01

Several important questions in evolutionary biology and paleobiology involve sources of variation in extinction rates. In all cases of which we are aware, extinction rates have been estimated from data in which the probability that an observation (e.g., a fossil taxon) will occur is related both to extinction rates and to what we term encounter probabilities. Any statistical method for analyzing fossil data should at a minimum permit separate inferences on these two components. We develop a method for estimating taxonomic extinction rates from stratigraphic range data and for testing hypotheses about variability in these rates. We use this method to estimate extinction rates and to test the hypothesis of constant extinction rates for several sets of stratigraphic range data. The results of our tests support the hypothesis that extinction rates varied over the geologic time periods examined. We also present a test that can be used to identify periods of high or low extinction probabilities and provide an example using Phanerozoic invertebrate data. Extinction rates should be analyzed using stochastic models, in which it is recognized that stratigraphic samples are random varlates and that sampling is imperfect

Sources of variation in extinction rates, turnover, and diversity of marine invertebrate families during the Paleozoic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Morris, R.W.; Brownie, C.; Pollock, K.H.

1986-01-01

The authors present a new method that can be used to estimate taxonomic turnover in conjunction with stratigraphic range data for families in five phyla of Paleozoic marine invertebrates. Encounter probabilities varied among taxa and showed evidence of a decrease over time for the geologic series examined. The number of families varied substantially among the five phyla and showed some evidence of an increase over the series examined. There was no evidence of variation in extinction probabilities among the phyla. Although there was evidence of temporal variation in extinction probabilities within phyla, there was no evidence of a linear decrease in extinction probabilities over time, as has been reported by others. The authors did find evidence of high extinction probabilities for the two intervals that had been identified by others as periods of mass extinction. They found no evidence of variation in turnover among the five phyla. There was evidence of temporal variation in turnover, with greater turnover occurring in the older series.

Responses of orchids to habitat change in Corsica over 27 years.

PubMed

Vogt-Schilb, Hélène; Pradel, Roger; Geniez, Philippe; Hugot, Laetitia; Delage, Alain; Richard, Franck; Schatz, Bertrand

2016-07-01

Orchids are known to be particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their narrow ranges of secondary successional habitats. Lack of data at the community level limits our ability to evaluate how traits of different species influence their responses to habitat change. Here, we used a diachronic survey of Mediterranean orchid communities in Corsica to examine this question. Using data from two field surveys conducted 27 years apart (1982-84 and 2009-11) at the same 45 sites in Corsica, we evaluated the impact of increase in woody plant cover (WPC) on (i) the richness and composition and (ii) the local extinction/colonization dynamics of orchids. We applied a Bayesian multispecies site-occupancy model to each of the 36 orchid species recorded at these sites to estimate the detection probability of each species, enabling us to account for under-detection in estimating their dynamics. Between 1982 and 2011, WPC changed at 82·3 % of sites (increasing at 75·6 %, decreasing at 6·7 %). Despite marked changes in composition of orchid communities at the local scale, no significant change was detected in species richness at the regional scale. Canopy closure affected the probability of new colonization of sites, but had no significant influence on the probability of local extinction. However, the abundance of shade-intolerant species declined more sharply than that of shade-requiring species. Among orchid species, the detection probability was significantly and positively correlated with population density and plant height. This study reveals contrasted dynamics of orchid communities between local and regional scales in Corsica. Although high turnover in communities was found at the local scale, regional species richness was maintained despite major land-use changes. Conserving landscape mosaics could provide locally suitable habitats for orchids of different ecologies to maintain diversity at larger spatial scales. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Human influence on distribution and extinctions of the late Pleistocene Eurasian megafauna.

PubMed

Pushkina, Diana; Raia, Pasquale

2008-06-01

Late Pleistocene extinctions are of interest to paleontological and anthropological research. In North America and Australia, human occupation occurred during a short period of time and overexploitation may have led to the extinction of mammalian megafauna. In northern Eurasia megafaunal extinctions are believed to have occurred over a relatively longer period of time, perhaps as a result of changing environmental conditions, but the picture is much less clear. To consider megafaunal extinction in Eurasia, we compare differences in the geographical distribution and commonness of extinct and extant species between paleontological and archaeological localities from the late middle Pleistocene to Holocene. Purely paleontological localities, as well as most extinct species, were distributed north of archaeological sites and of the extant species, suggesting that apart from possible differences in adaptations between humans and other species, humans could also have a detrimental effect on large mammal distribution. However, evidence for human overexploitation applies only to the extinct steppe bison Bison priscus. Other human-preferred species survive into the Holocene, including Rangifer tarandus, Equus ferus, Capreolus capreolus, Cervus elaphus, Equus hemionus, Saiga tatarica, and Sus scrofa. Mammuthus primigenius and Megaloceros giganteus were rare in archaeological sites. Carnivores appear little influenced by human presence, although they become rarer in Holocene archaeological sites. Overall, the data are consistent with the conclusion that humans acted as efficient hunters selecting for the most abundant species. Our study supports the idea that the late Pleistocene extinctions were environmentally driven by climatic changes that triggered habitat fragmentation, species range reduction, and population decrease, after which human interference either by direct hunting or via indirect activities probably became critical.

Estimating occupancy dynamics in an anuran assemblage from Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walls, Susan C.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Dorazio, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Effective monitoring programs are designed to track changes in the distribution, occurrence, and abundance of species. We developed an extension of Royle and Kéry's (2007) single species model to estimate simultaneously temporal changes in probabilities of detection, occupancy, colonization, extinction, and species turnover using data on calling anuran amphibians, collected from 2002 to 2006 in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley of Louisiana, USA. During our 5-year study, estimates of occurrence probabilities declined for all 12 species detected. These declines occurred primarily in conjunction with variation in estimates of local extinction probabilities (cajun chorus frog [Pseudacris fouquettei], spring peeper [P. crucifer], northern cricket frog [Acris crepitans], Cope's gray treefrog [Hyla chrysoscelis], green treefrog [H. cinerea], squirrel treefrog [H. squirella], southern leopard frog [Lithobates sphenocephalus], bronze frog [L. clamitans], American bullfrog [L. catesbeianus], and Fowler's toad [Anaxyrus fowleri]). For 2 species (eastern narrowmouthed toad [Gastrophryne carolinensis] and Gulf Coast toad [Incilius nebulifer]), declines in occupancy appeared to be a consequence of both increased local extinction and decreased colonization events. The eastern narrow-mouthed toad experienced a 2.5-fold increase in estimates of occupancy in 2004, possibly because of the high amount of rainfall received during that year, along with a decrease in extinction and increase in colonization of new sites between 2003 and 2004. Our model can be incorporated into monitoring programs to estimate simultaneously the occupancy dynamics for multiple species that show similar responses to ecological conditions. It will likely be an important asset for those monitoring programs that employ the same methods to sample assemblages of ecologically similar species, including those that are rare. By combining information from multiple species to decrease the variance on estimates of individual species, our results are advantageous compared to single-species models. This feature enables managers and researchers to use an entire community, rather than just one species, as an ecological indicator in monitoring programs.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Modeling the within-host dynamics of cholera: bacterial-viral interaction.

PubMed

Wang, Xueying; Wang, Jin

2017-08-01

Novel deterministic and stochastic models are proposed in this paper for the within-host dynamics of cholera, with a focus on the bacterial-viral interaction. The deterministic model is a system of differential equations describing the interaction among the two types of vibrios and the viruses. The stochastic model is a system of Markov jump processes that is derived based on the dynamics of the deterministic model. The multitype branching process approximation is applied to estimate the extinction probability of bacteria and viruses within a human host during the early stage of the bacterial-viral infection. Accordingly, a closed-form expression is derived for the disease extinction probability, and analytic estimates are validated with numerical simulations. The local and global dynamics of the bacterial-viral interaction are analysed using the deterministic model, and the result indicates that there is a sharp disease threshold characterized by the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]: if [Formula: see text], vibrios ingested from the environment into human body will not cause cholera infection; if [Formula: see text], vibrios will grow with increased toxicity and persist within the host, leading to human cholera. In contrast, the stochastic model indicates, more realistically, that there is always a positive probability of disease extinction within the human host.

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2010-01-01

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

Threatened species and the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity: conservation scenarios based on estimated extinction probabilities and phylogenetic risk analysis.

PubMed

Faith, Daniel P

2008-12-01

New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst-case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single-species assessment that is well-integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.

Extinction and the spatial dynamics of biodiversity

PubMed Central

Jablonski, David

2008-01-01

The fossil record amply shows that the spatial fabric of extinction has profoundly shaped the biosphere; this spatial dimension provides a powerful context for integration of paleontological and neontological approaches. Mass extinctions evidently alter extinction selectivity, with many factors losing effectiveness except for a positive relation between survivorship and geographic range at the clade level (confirmed in reanalyses of end-Cretaceous extinction data). This relation probably also holds during “normal” times, but changes both slope and intercept with increasing extinction. The strong geographical component to clade dynamics can obscure causation in the extinction of a feature or a clade, owing to hitchhiking effects on geographic range, so that multifactorial analyses are needed. Some extinctions are spatially complex, and regional extinctions might either reset a diversity ceiling or create a diversification debt open to further diversification or invasion. Evolutionary recoveries also exhibit spatial dynamics, including regional differences in invasibilty, and expansion of clades from the tropics fuels at least some recoveries, as well as biodiversity dynamics during normal times. Incumbency effects apparently correlate more closely with extinction intensities than with standing diversities, so that regions with higher local and global extinctions are more subject to invasion; the latest Cenozoic temperate zones evidently received more invaders than the tropics or poles, but this dynamic could shift dramatically if tropical diversity is strongly depleted. The fossil record can provide valuable insights, and their application to present-day issues will be enhanced by partitioning past and present-day extinctions by driving mechanism rather than emphasizing intensity. PMID:18695229

Converting endangered species categories to probabilities of extinction for phylogenetic conservation prioritization.

PubMed

Mooers, Arne Ø; Faith, Daniel P; Maddison, Wayne P

2008-01-01

Categories of imperilment like the global IUCN Red List have been transformed to probabilities of extinction and used to rank species by the amount of imperiled evolutionary history they represent (e.g. by the Edge of Existence programme). We investigate the stability of such lists when ranks are converted to probabilities of extinction under different scenarios. Using a simple example and computer simulation, we show that preserving the categories when converting such list designations to probabilities of extinction does not guarantee the stability of the resulting lists. Care must be taken when choosing a suitable transformation, especially if conservation dollars are allocated to species in a ranked fashion. We advocate routine sensitivity analyses.

Is outdoor vector control needed for malaria elimination? An individual-based modelling study.

PubMed

Zhu, Lin; Müller, Günter C; Marshall, John M; Arheart, Kristopher L; Qualls, Whitney A; Hlaing, WayWay M; Schlein, Yosef; Traore, Sekou F; Doumbia, Seydou; Beier, John C

2017-07-03

Residual malaria transmission has been reported in many areas even with adequate indoor vector control coverage, such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). The increased insecticide resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes has resulted in reduced efficacy of the widely used indoor tools and has been linked with an increase in outdoor malaria transmission. There are considerations of incorporating outdoor interventions into integrated vector management (IVM) to achieve malaria elimination; however, more information on the combination of tools for effective control is needed to determine their utilization. A spatial individual-based model was modified to simulate the environment and malaria transmission activities in a hypothetical, isolated African village setting. LLINs and outdoor attractive toxic sugar bait (ATSB) stations were used as examples of indoor and outdoor interventions, respectively. Different interventions and lengths of efficacy periods were tested. Simulations continued for 420 days, and each simulation scenario was repeated 50 times. Mosquito populations, entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs), probabilities of local mosquito extinction, and proportion of time when the annual EIR was reduced below one were compared between different intervention types and efficacy periods. In the village setting with clustered houses, the combinational intervention of 50% LLINs plus outdoor ATSBs significantly reduced mosquito population and EIR in short term, increased the probability of local mosquito extinction, and increased the time when annual EIR is less than one per person compared to 50% LLINs alone; outdoor ATSBs alone significantly reduced mosquito population in short term, increased the probability of mosquito extinction, and increased the time when annual EIR is less than one compared to 50% LLINs alone, but there was no significant difference in EIR in short term between 50% LLINs and outdoor ATSBs. In the village setting with dispersed houses, the combinational intervention of 50% LLINs plus outdoor ATSBs significantly reduced mosquito population in short term, increased the probability of mosquito extinction, and increased the time when annual EIR is less than one per person compared to 50% LLINs alone; outdoor ATSBs alone significantly reduced mosquito population in short term, but there were no significant difference in the probability of mosquito extinction and the time when annual EIR is less than one between 50% LLIN and outdoor ATSBs; and there was no significant difference in EIR between all three interventions. A minimum of 2 months of efficacy period is needed to bring out the best possible effect of the vector control tools, and to achieve long-term mosquito reduction, a minimum of 3 months of efficacy period is needed. The results highlight the value of incorporating outdoor vector control into IVM as a supplement to traditional indoor practices for malaria elimination in Africa, especially in village settings of clustered houses where LLINs alone is far from sufficient.

Dynamic N -occupancy models: estimating demographic rates and local abundance from detection-nondetection data

Treesearch

Sam Rossman; Charles B. Yackulic; Sarah P. Saunders; Janice Reid; Ray Davis; Elise F. Zipkin

2016-01-01

Occupancy modeling is a widely used analytical technique for assessing species distributions and range dynamics. However, occupancy analyses frequently ignore variation in abundance of occupied sites, even though site abundances affect many of the parameters being estimated (e.g., extinction, colonization, detection probability). We introduce a new model (“dynamic

Estimation of species richness and parameters reflecting community dynamics using data from ecological monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.; Boulinier, T.; Pollock, K.H.; Therres, Glenn D.

2001-01-01

Although many ecological monitoring programs are now in place, the use of resulting data to draw inferences about changes in biodiversity is problematic. The difficulty arises because of the inability to count all animals present in any sampled area. This inability results not only in underestimation of species richness but also in potentially misleading comparisons of species richness over time and space. We recommend the use of probabilistic estimators for estimating species richness and related parameters (e.g., rate of change in species richness, local extinction probability, local turnover, local colonization) when animal detection probabilities are <1. We illustrate these methods using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey obtained along survey routes in Maryland. We also introduce software to implement these estimation methods.

Goodness of fit of probability distributions for sightings as species approach extinction.

PubMed

Vogel, Richard M; Hosking, Jonathan R M; Elphick, Chris S; Roberts, David L; Reed, J Michael

2009-04-01

Estimating the probability that a species is extinct and the timing of extinctions is useful in biological fields ranging from paleoecology to conservation biology. Various statistical methods have been introduced to infer the time of extinction and extinction probability from a series of individual sightings. There is little evidence, however, as to which of these models provide adequate fit to actual sighting records. We use L-moment diagrams and probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) hypothesis tests to evaluate the goodness of fit of various probabilistic models to sighting data collected for a set of North American and Hawaiian bird populations that have either gone extinct, or are suspected of having gone extinct, during the past 150 years. For our data, the uniform, truncated exponential, and generalized Pareto models performed moderately well, but the Weibull model performed poorly. Of the acceptable models, the uniform distribution performed best based on PPCC goodness of fit comparisons and sequential Bonferroni-type tests. Further analyses using field significance tests suggest that although the uniform distribution is the best of those considered, additional work remains to evaluate the truncated exponential model more fully. The methods we present here provide a framework for evaluating subsequent models.

Approximate Bayesian estimation of extinction rate in the Finnish Daphnia magna metapopulation.

PubMed

Robinson, John D; Hall, David W; Wares, John P

2013-05-01

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is useful for parameterizing complex models in population genetics. In this study, ABC was applied to simultaneously estimate parameter values for a model of metapopulation coalescence and test two alternatives to a strict metapopulation model in the well-studied network of Daphnia magna populations in Finland. The models shared four free parameters: the subpopulation genetic diversity (θS), the rate of gene flow among patches (4Nm), the founding population size (N0) and the metapopulation extinction rate (e) but differed in the distribution of extinction rates across habitat patches in the system. The three models had either a constant extinction rate in all populations (strict metapopulation), one population that was protected from local extinction (i.e. a persistent source), or habitat-specific extinction rates drawn from a distribution with specified mean and variance. Our model selection analysis favoured the model including a persistent source population over the two alternative models. Of the closest 750,000 data sets in Euclidean space, 78% were simulated under the persistent source model (estimated posterior probability = 0.769). This fraction increased to more than 85% when only the closest 150,000 data sets were considered (estimated posterior probability = 0.774). Approximate Bayesian computation was then used to estimate parameter values that might produce the observed set of summary statistics. Our analysis provided posterior distributions for e that included the point estimate obtained from previous data from the Finnish D. magna metapopulation. Our results support the use of ABC and population genetic data for testing the strict metapopulation model and parameterizing complex models of demography. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

PubMed

McCarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

2014-12-01

Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of local extinction on mixture fraction and scalar dissipation statistics in turbulent nonpremixed flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attili, Antonio; Bisetti, Fabrizio

2015-11-01

Passive scalar and scalar dissipation statistics are investigated in a set of flames achieving a Taylor's scale Reynolds number in the range 100 <=Reλ <= 150 [Attili et al. Comb. Flame 161, 2014; Attili et al. Proc. Comb. Inst. 35, 2015]. The three flames simulated show an increasing level of extinction due to the decrease of the Damköhler number. In the case of negligible extinction, the non-dimensional scalar dissipation is expected to be the same in the three cases. In the present case, the deviations from the aforementioned self-similarity manifests itself as a decrease of the non-dimensional scalar dissipation for increasing level of local extinction, in agreement with recent experiments [Karpetis and Barlow Proc. Comb. Inst. 30, 2005; Sutton and Driscoll Combust. Flame 160, 2013 ]. This is caused by the decrease of molecular diffusion due to the lower temperature in the low Damköhler number cases. Probability density functions of the scalar dissipation χ show rather strong deviations from the log-normal distribution. The left tail of the pdf scales as χ 1 / 2 while the right tail scales as e-cχα, in agreement with results for incompressible turbulence [Schumacher et al. J. Fluid Mech. 531, 2005].

Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches.

PubMed

Sinervo, Barry; Méndez-de-la-Cruz, Fausto; Miles, Donald B; Heulin, Benoit; Bastiaans, Elizabeth; Villagrán-Santa Cruz, Maricela; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael; Martínez-Méndez, Norberto; Calderón-Espinosa, Martha Lucía; Meza-Lázaro, Rubi Nelsi; Gadsden, Héctor; Avila, Luciano Javier; Morando, Mariana; De la Riva, Ignacio J; Victoriano Sepulveda, Pedro; Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte; Ibargüengoytía, Nora; Aguilar Puntriano, César; Massot, Manuel; Lepetz, Virginie; Oksanen, Tuula A; Chapple, David G; Bauer, Aaron M; Branch, William R; Clobert, Jean; Sites, Jack W

2010-05-14

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

On the extinction probability in models of within-host infection: the role of latency and immunity.

PubMed

Yan, Ada W C; Cao, Pengxing; McCaw, James M

2016-10-01

Not every exposure to virus establishes infection in the host; instead, the small amount of initial virus could become extinct due to stochastic events. Different diseases and routes of transmission have a different average number of exposures required to establish an infection. Furthermore, the host immune response and antiviral treatment affect not only the time course of the viral load provided infection occurs, but can prevent infection altogether by increasing the extinction probability. We show that the extinction probability when there is a time-dependent immune response depends on the chosen form of the model-specifically, on the presence or absence of a delay between infection of a cell and production of virus, and the distribution of latent and infectious periods of an infected cell. We hypothesise that experimentally measuring the extinction probability when the virus is introduced at different stages of the immune response, alongside the viral load which is usually measured, will improve parameter estimates and determine the most suitable mathematical form of the model.

First human-caused extinction of a cetacean species?

PubMed

Turvey, Samuel T; Pitman, Robert L; Taylor, Barbara L; Barlow, Jay; Akamatsu, Tomonari; Barrett, Leigh A; Zhao, Xiujiang; Reeves, Randall R; Stewart, Brent S; Wang, Kexiong; Wei, Zhuo; Zhang, Xianfeng; Pusser, L T; Richlen, Michael; Brandon, John R; Wang, Ding

2007-10-22

The Yangtze River dolphin or baiji (Lipotes vexillifer), an obligate freshwater odontocete known only from the middle-lower Yangtze River system and neighbouring Qiantang River in eastern China, has long been recognized as one of the world's rarest and most threatened mammal species. The status of the baiji has not been investigated since the late 1990s, when the surviving population was estimated to be as low as 13 individuals. An intensive six-week multi-vessel visual and acoustic survey carried out in November-December 2006, covering the entire historical range of the baiji in the main Yangtze channel, failed to find any evidence that the species survives. We are forced to conclude that the baiji is now likely to be extinct, probably due to unsustainable by-catch in local fisheries. This represents the first global extinction of a large vertebrate for over 50 years, only the fourth disappearance of an entire mammal family since AD 1500, and the first cetacean species to be driven to extinction by human activity. Immediate and extreme measures may be necessary to prevent the extinction of other endangered cetaceans, including the sympatric Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis).

Local approximation of a metapopulation's equilibrium.

PubMed

Barbour, A D; McVinish, R; Pollett, P K

2018-04-18

We consider the approximation of the equilibrium of a metapopulation model, in which a finite number of patches are randomly distributed over a bounded subset [Formula: see text] of Euclidean space. The approximation is good when a large number of patches contribute to the colonization pressure on any given unoccupied patch, and when the quality of the patches varies little over the length scale determined by the colonization radius. If this is the case, the equilibrium probability of a patch at z being occupied is shown to be close to [Formula: see text], the equilibrium occupation probability in Levins's model, at any point [Formula: see text] not too close to the boundary, if the local colonization pressure and extinction rates appropriate to z are assumed. The approximation is justified by giving explicit upper and lower bounds for the occupation probabilities, expressed in terms of the model parameters. Since the patches are distributed randomly, the occupation probabilities are also random, and we complement our bounds with explicit bounds on the probability that they are satisfied at all patches simultaneously.

Herpetological monitoring and assessment on the Trinity River, Trinity County, California—Final report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snover, Melissa L.; Adams, Michael J.

2016-06-14

The primary goal of the Trinity River Restoration Program is to rehabilitate the fisheries on the dam-controlled Trinity River. However, maintaining and enhancing other wildlife populations through the restoration initiative is also a key objective. Foothill yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii) and western pond turtles (Actinemys marmorata) have been identified as important herpetological species on which to focus monitoring efforts due to their status as California state-listed species of concern and potential listing on the U.S. Endangered Species List. We developed and implemented a monitoring strategy for these species specific to the Trinity River with the objectives of establishing baseline values for probabilities of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction; identifying site characteristics that correlate with the probability of extinction; and estimating overall trends in abundance. Our 3-year study suggests that foothill yellow-legged frogs declined in the probability of site occupancy. Conversely, our results suggest that western pond turtles increased in both abundance and the probability of site occupancy. The short length of our study period makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions, but these results provide much-needed baseline data. Further monitoring and directed studies are required to assess how habitat changes and management decisions relate to the status and trend of these species over the long term.

Determinants of extinction-colonization dynamics in Mediterranean butterflies: the role of landscape, climate and local habitat features.

PubMed

Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Stefanescu, Constantí; Genovart, Meritxell; Nichols, James D; Hines, James E; Páramo, Ferran; Turco, Marco; Oro, Daniel

2014-01-01

Many species are found today in the form of fragmented populations occupying patches of remnant habitat in human-altered landscapes. The persistence of these population networks requires a balance between extinction and colonization events assumed to be primarily related to patch area and isolation, but the contribution of factors such as the characteristics of patch and matrix habitats, the species' traits (habitat specialization and dispersal capabilities) and variation in climatic conditions have seldom been evaluated simultaneously. The identification of environmental variables associated with patch occupancy and turnover may be especially useful to enhance the persistence of multiple species under current global change. However, for robust inference on occupancy and related parameters, we must account for detection errors, a commonly overlooked problem that leads to biased estimates and misleading conclusions about population dynamics. Here, we provide direct empirical evidence of the effects of different environmental variables on the extinction and colonization rates of a rich butterfly community in the western Mediterranean. The analysis was based on a 17-year data set containing detection/nondetection data on 73 butterfly species for 26 sites in north-eastern Spain. Using multiseason occupancy models, which take into account species' detectability, we were able to obtain robust estimates of local extinction and colonization probabilities for each species and test the potential effects of site covariates such as the area of suitable habitat, topographic variability, landscape permeability around the site and climatic variability in aridity conditions. Results revealed a general pattern across species with local habitat composition and landscape features as stronger predictors of occupancy dynamics compared with topography and local aridity. Increasing area of suitable habitat in a site strongly decreased local extinction risks and, for a number of species, both higher amounts of suitable habitat and more permeable landscapes increased colonization rates. Nevertheless, increased topographic variability decreased the extinction risk of bad dispersers, a group of species with significantly lower colonization rates. Our models predicted higher sensitivity of the butterfly assemblages to deterministic changes in habitat features rather than to stochastic weather patterns, with some relationships being clearly dependent on the species' traits. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

PubMed Central

Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity. PMID:21746924

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Wilson, Robert J

2011-07-26

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.

Occupancy as a surrogate for abundance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.

2004-01-01

In many monitoring programmes it may be prohibitively expensive to estimate the actual abundance of a bird species in a defined area, particularly at large spatial scales, or where birds occur at very low densities. Often it may be appropriate to consider the proportion of area occupied by the species as an alternative state variable. However, as with abundance estimation, issues of detectability must be taken into account in order to make accurate inferences: the non?detection of the species does not imply the species is genuinely absent. Here we review some recent modelling developments that permit unbiased estimation of the proportion of area occupied, colonization and local extinction probabilities. These methods allow for unequal sampling effort and enable covariate information on sampling locations to be incorporated. We also describe how these models could be extended to incorporate information from marked individuals, which would enable finer questions of population dynamics (such as turnover rate of nest sites by specific breeding pairs) to be addressed. We believe these models may be applicable to a wide range of bird species and may be useful for investigating various questions of ecological interest. For example, with respect to habitat quality, we might predict that a species is more likely to have higher local extinction probabilities, or higher turnover rates of specific breeding pairs, in poor quality habitats.

Occupancy dynamics in human-modified landscapes in a tropical island: implications for conservation design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irizarry, Julissa I.; Collazo, Jaime A.; Dinsmore, Stephen J.

2016-01-01

AimAvian communities in human-modified landscapes exhibit varying patterns of local colonization and extinction rates, determinants of species occurrence. Our objective was to model these processes to identify habitat features that might enable movements and account for occupancy patterns in habitat matrices between the Guanica and Susua forest reserves. This knowledge is central to conservation design, particularly in ever changing insular landscapes.LocationSouth-western Puerto Rico.MethodsWe used a multiseason occupancy modelling approach to quantify seasonal estimates of occupancy, and colonization and extinction rates of seven resident avian species surveyed over five seasons from January 2010 to June 2011. We modelled parameters by matrix type, expressions of survey station isolation, quality, amount of forest cover and context (embedded in forest patch).ResultsSeasonal occupancy remained stable throughout the study for all species, consistent with seasonally constant colonization and extinction probabilities. Occupancy was mediated by matrix type, higher in reserves and forested matrix than in the urban and agricultural matrices. This pattern is in accord with the forest affinities of all but an open-habitat specialist. Puerto Rican Spindalis (Spindalis portoricensis) exhibited high occupancy in the urban matrix, highlighting the adaptability of some insular species to novel environments. Highest colonization rates occurred when perching structures were at ≤ 500 m. Survey stations with at least three fruiting tree species and 61% forest cover exhibited lowest seasonal extinction rates.Main conclusionsOur work identified habitat features that influenced seasonal probabilities of colonization and extinction in a human-modified landscape. Conservation design decisions are better informed with increased knowledge about interpatch distances to improve matrix permeability, and habitat features that increase persistence or continued use of habitat stepping stones. A focus on dynamic processes is valuable because conservation actions directly influence colonization and extinction rates, and thus, a quantitative means to gauge their benefit.

Genetic sex determination and extinction.

PubMed

Hedrick, Philip W; Gadau, Jürgen; Page, Robert E

2006-02-01

Genetic factors can affect the probability of extinction either by increasing the effect of detrimental variants or by decreasing the potential for future adaptive responses. In a recent paper, Zayed and Packer demonstrate that low variation at a specific locus, the complementary sex determination (csd) locus in Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps), can result in a sharply increased probability of extinction. Their findings illustrate situations in which there is a feedback process between decreased genetic variation at the csd locus owing to genetic drift and decreased population growth, resulting in an extreme type of extinction vortex for these ecologically important organisms.

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate-induced range shifts.

PubMed

Hargreaves, A L; Bailey, S F; Laird, R A

2015-08-01

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient. We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs), and for a single climate genotype vs. multiple genotypes locally adapted to temperature. During climate stability, dispersal decreased towards RLs when fitness was uniform, but increased when fitness declined towards RLs, due to highly dispersive genotypes maintaining sink populations at RLs, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low-quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low-fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted genotypes benefited from staying close to their climate optima; this selected against dispersal under stable climates but for increased dispersal throughout shifting ranges, compared to cases without local adaptation. Dispersal increased at expanding RLs in most scenarios, but only increased at the range centre and contracting RLs given local adaptation to climate. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Population Genetics of Three Dimensional Range Expansions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavrentovich, Maxim; Nelson, David

2014-03-01

We develop a simple model of genetic diversity in growing spherical cell clusters, where the growth is confined to the cluster surface. This kind of growth occurs in cells growing in soft agar, and can also serve as a simple model of avascular tumors. Mutation-selection balance in these radial expansions is strongly influenced by scaling near a neutral, voter model critical point and by the inflating frontier. We develop a scaling theory to describe how the dynamics of mutation-selection balance is cut off by inflation. Genetic drift, i.e., local fluctuations in the genetic diversity, also plays an important role, and can lead to the extinction even of selectively advantageous strains. We calculate this extinction probability, taking into account the effect of rough population frontiers.

Matrix quality and disturbance frequency drive evolution of species behavior at habitat boundaries.

PubMed

Martin, Amanda E; Fahrig, Lenore

2015-12-01

Previous theoretical studies suggest that a species' landscape should influence the evolution of its dispersal characteristics, because landscape structure affects the costs and benefits of dispersal. However, these studies have not considered the evolution of boundary crossing, that is, the tendency of animals to cross from habitat to nonhabitat ("matrix"). It is important to understand this dispersal behavior, because of its effects on the probability of population persistence. Boundary-crossing behavior drives the rate of interaction with matrix, and thus, it influences the rate of movement among populations and the risk of dispersal mortality. We used an individual-based, spatially explicit model to simulate the evolution of boundary crossing in response to landscape structure. Our simulations predict higher evolved probabilities of boundary crossing in landscapes with more habitat, less fragmented habitat, higher-quality matrix, and more frequent disturbances (i.e., fewer generations between local population extinction events). Unexpectedly, our simulations also suggest that matrix quality and disturbance frequency have much stronger effects on the evolution of boundary crossing than either habitat amount or habitat fragmentation. Our results suggest that boundary-crossing responses are most affected by the costs of dispersal through matrix and the benefits of escaping local extinction events. Evolution of optimal behavior at habitat boundaries in response to the landscape may have implications for species in human-altered landscapes, because this behavior may become suboptimal if the landscape changes faster than the species' evolutionary response to that change. Understanding how matrix quality and habitat disturbance drive evolution of behavior at boundaries, and how this in turn influences the extinction risk of species in human-altered landscapes should help us identify species of conservation concern and target them for management.

Greenhouse-icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton.

PubMed

Crampton, James S; Cooper, Roger A; Sadler, Peter M; Foote, Michael

2016-02-09

Two distinct regimes of extinction dynamic are present in the major marine zooplankton group, the graptolites, during the Ordovician and Silurian periods (486-418 Ma). In conditions of "background" extinction, which dominated in the Ordovician, taxonomic evolutionary rates were relatively low and the probability of extinction was highest among newly evolved species ("background extinction mode"). A sharp change in extinction regime in the Late Ordovician marked the onset of repeated severe spikes in the extinction rate curve; evolutionary turnover increased greatly in the Silurian, and the extinction mode changed to include extinction that was independent of species age ("high-extinction mode"). This change coincides with a change in global climate, from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. During the most extreme episode of extinction, the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction, old species were selectively removed ("mass extinction mode"). Our analysis indicates that selective regimes in the Paleozoic ocean plankton switched rapidly (generally in <0.5 My) from one mode to another in response to environmental change, even when restoration of the full ecosystem was much slower (several million years). The patterns observed are not a simple consequence of geographic range effects or of taxonomic changes from Ordovician to Silurian. Our results suggest that the dominant primary controls on extinction throughout the lifespan of this clade were abiotic (environmental), probably mediated by the microphytoplankton.

Greenhouse−icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

PubMed Central

Crampton, James S.; Cooper, Roger A.; Sadler, Peter M.; Foote, Michael

2016-01-01

Two distinct regimes of extinction dynamic are present in the major marine zooplankton group, the graptolites, during the Ordovician and Silurian periods (486−418 Ma). In conditions of “background” extinction, which dominated in the Ordovician, taxonomic evolutionary rates were relatively low and the probability of extinction was highest among newly evolved species (“background extinction mode”). A sharp change in extinction regime in the Late Ordovician marked the onset of repeated severe spikes in the extinction rate curve; evolutionary turnover increased greatly in the Silurian, and the extinction mode changed to include extinction that was independent of species age (“high-extinction mode”). This change coincides with a change in global climate, from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. During the most extreme episode of extinction, the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction, old species were selectively removed (“mass extinction mode”). Our analysis indicates that selective regimes in the Paleozoic ocean plankton switched rapidly (generally in <0.5 My) from one mode to another in response to environmental change, even when restoration of the full ecosystem was much slower (several million years). The patterns observed are not a simple consequence of geographic range effects or of taxonomic changes from Ordovician to Silurian. Our results suggest that the dominant primary controls on extinction throughout the lifespan of this clade were abiotic (environmental), probably mediated by the microphytoplankton. PMID:26811471

Correlates of rediscovery and the detectability of extinction in mammals

PubMed Central

Fisher, Diana O.; Blomberg, Simon P.

2011-01-01

Extinction is difficult to detect, even in well-known taxa such as mammals. Species with long gaps in their sighting records, which might be considered possibly extinct, are often rediscovered. We used data on rediscovery rates of missing mammals to test whether extinction from different causes is equally detectable and to find which traits affect the probability of rediscovery. We find that species affected by habitat loss were much more likely to be misclassified as extinct or to remain missing than those affected by introduced predators and diseases, or overkill, unless they had very restricted distributions. We conclude that extinctions owing to habitat loss are most difficult to detect; hence, impacts of habitat loss on extinction have probably been overestimated, especially relative to introduced species. It is most likely that the highest rates of rediscovery will come from searching for species that have gone missing during the 20th century and have relatively large ranges threatened by habitat loss, rather than from additional effort focused on charismatic missing species. PMID:20880890

Inferring extinction risks from sighting records.

PubMed

Thompson, C J; Lee, T E; Stone, L; McCarthy, M A; Burgman, M A

2013-12-07

Estimating the probability that a species is extinct based on historical sighting records is important when deciding how much effort and money to invest in conservation policies. The framework we offer is more general than others in the literature to date. Our formulation allows for definite and uncertain observations, and thus better accommodates the realities of sighting record quality. Typically, the probability of observing a species given it is extant/extinct is challenging to define, especially when the possibility of a false observation is included. As such, we assume that observation probabilities derive from a representative probability density function. We incorporate this randomness in two different ways ("quenched" versus "annealed") using a framework that is equivalent to a Bayes formulation. The two methods can lead to significantly different estimates for extinction. In the case of definite sightings only, we provide an explicit deterministic calculation (in which observation probabilities are point estimates). Furthermore, our formulation replicates previous work in certain limiting cases. In the case of uncertain sightings, we allow for the possibility of several independent observational types (specimen, photographs, etc.). The method is applied to the Caribbean monk seal, Monachus tropicalis (which has only definite sightings), and synthetic data, with uncertain sightings. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synchronization and survival of connected bacterial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gokhale, Shreyas; Conwill, Arolyn; Ranjan, Tanvi; Gore, Jeff

Migration plays a vital role in controlling population dynamics of species occupying distinct habitat patches. While local populations are vulnerable to extinction due to demographic or environmental stochasticity, migration from neighboring habitat patches can rescue these populations through colonization of uninhabited regions. However, a large migratory flux can synchronize the population dynamics in connected patches, thereby enhancing the risk of global extinction during periods of depression in population size. Here, we investigate this trade-off between local rescue and global extinction experimentally using laboratory populations of E. coli bacteria. Our model system consists of co-cultures of ampicillin resistant and chloramphenicol resistant strains that form a cross-protection mutualism and exhibit period-3 oscillations in the relative population density in the presence of both antibiotics. We quantify the onset of synchronization of oscillations in a pair of co-cultures connected by migration and demonstrate that period-3 oscillations can be disturbed for moderate rates of migration. These features are consistent with simulations of a mechanistic model of antibiotic deactivation in our system. The simulations further predict that the probability of survival of connected populations in high concentrations of antibiotics is maximized at intermediate migration rates. We verify this prediction experimentally and show that survival is enhanced through a combination of disturbance of period-3 oscillations and stochastic re-colonization events.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; McCallum, H.; Lafferty, K.D.; Sabo, J.L.; Dobson, A.

2005-01-01

In the United States and several other countries, the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to model disease explicitly. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Temporal genetic change in the last remaining population of woolly mammoth

PubMed Central

Nyström, Veronica; Dalén, Love; Vartanyan, Sergey; Lidén, Kerstin; Ryman, Nils; Angerbjörn, Anders

2010-01-01

During the Late Pleistocene, the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) experienced a series of local extinctions generally attributed to human predation or environmental change. Some small and isolated populations did however survive far into the Holocene. Here, we investigated the genetic consequences of the isolation of the last remaining mammoth population on Wrangel Island. We analysed 741 bp of the mitochondrial DNA and found a loss of genetic variation in relation to the isolation event, probably caused by a demographic bottleneck or a founder event. However, in spite of ca 5000 years of isolation, we did not detect any further loss of genetic variation. Together with the relatively high number of mitochondrial haplotypes on Wrangel Island near the final disappearance, this suggests a sudden extinction of a rather stable population. PMID:20356891

Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

PubMed

Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

When Local Extinction and Colonization of River Fishes Can Be Predicted by Regional Occupancy: the Role of Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

2013-01-01

Background Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. Methods And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. Conclusions In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales. PMID:24367636

When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

PubMed

Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

2013-01-01

Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

Rates of movement of threatened bird species between IUCN red list categories and toward extinction.

PubMed

Brooke, M de L; Butchart, S H M; Garnett, S T; Crowley, G M; Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Stattersfield, A J

2008-04-01

In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988-2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.

The role of extinction in evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, D. M.

1994-01-01

The extinction of species is not normally considered an important element of neodarwinian theory, in contrast to the opposite phenomenon, speciation. This is surprising in view of the special importance Darwin attached to extinction, and because the number of species extinctions in the history of life is almost the same as the number of originations; present-day biodiversity is the result of a trivial surplus of originations, cumulated over millions of years. For an evolutionary biologist to ignore extinction is probably as foolhardy as for a demographer to ignore mortality. The past decade has seen a resurgence of interest in extinction, yet research on the topic is still at a reconnaissance level, and our present understanding of its role in evolution is weak. Despite uncertainties, extinction probably contains three important elements. (i) For geographically widespread species, extinction is likely only if the killing stress is one so rare as to be beyond the experience of the species, and thus outside the reach of natural selection. (ii) The largest mass extinctions produce major restructuring of the biosphere wherein some successful groups are eliminated, allowing previously minor groups to expand and diversify. (iii) Except for a few cases, there is little evidence that extinction is selective in the positive sense argued by Darwin. It has generally been impossible to predict, before the fact, which species will be victims of an extinction event.

What caused terrestrial dust loading and climate downturns between A.D. 533 and 540?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abbott, Dallas H.; Breger, Dee; Biscaye, Pierre E.; Barron, John A.; Juhl, Robert A.; McCafferty, Patrick

2014-01-01

Sn-rich particles, Ni-rich particles, and cosmic spherules are found together at four discrete stratigraphic levels within the 362-360 m depth interval of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core (72.6°N, 38.5°W, elevation: 3203 m). Using a previously derived calendar-year time scale, these particles span a time of increased dust loading of Earth's atmosphere between A.D. 533 and 540. The Sn-rich and Ni-rich particles contain an average of 10–11 wt% C. Their high C contents coupled with local enrichments in the volatile elements I, Zn, Cu, and Xe suggest a cometary source for the dust. The late spring timing of extraterrestrial input best matches the Eta Aquarid meteor shower associated with comet 1P/Halley. An increased flux of cometary dust might explain a modest climate downturn in A.D. 533. Both cometary dust and volcanic sulfate probably contributed to the profound global dimming during A.D. 536 and 537 but may be insufficient sources of fine aerosols. We found tropical marine microfossils and aerosol-sized CaCO3 particles at the end A.D. 535–start A.D. 536 level that we attribute to a low-latitude explosion in the ocean. This additional source of dust is probably needed to explain the solar dimming during A.D. 536 and 537. Although there has been no extinction documented at A.D. 536, our results are relevant because mass extinctions may also have multiple drivers. Detailed examinations of fine particles at and near extinction horizons can help to determine the relative contributions of cosmic and volcanic drivers to mass extinctions.

The butterflies of Barro Colorado Island: Local extinction rates since the 1930's

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Few data are available about the regional or local extinction of tropical butterfly species. When confirmed, local extinction was often due to the loss of host-plant species. We used published lists and recent monitoring programs to evaluate changes in butterfly composition on Barro Colorado Island ...

Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Xue, Ling; Scoglio, Caterina

2015-06-01

The basic reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or not. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge of disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between basic reproduction numbers of two deterministic network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing that the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem for proving existence of the relationships in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number does not monotonically increase or decrease with the extinction threshold. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

Rare events in networks with internal and external noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hindes, J.; Schwartz, I. B.

2017-12-01

We study rare events in networks with both internal and external noise, and develop a general formalism for analyzing rare events that combines pair-quenched techniques and large-deviation theory. The probability distribution, shape, and time scale of rare events are considered in detail for extinction in the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model as an illustration. We find that when both types of noise are present, there is a crossover region as the network size is increased, where the probability exponent for large deviations no longer increases linearly with the network size. We demonstrate that the form of the crossover depends on whether the endemic state is localized near the epidemic threshold or not.

Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions.

PubMed

Schwager, Monika; Johst, Karin; Jeltsch, Florian

2006-06-01

Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations (red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated (white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme (catastrophic) events can occur (strong noise) or sensitivity is high (overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk.

Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: how important is patch quality?

PubMed

Chauvenet, Aliénor L M; Baxter, Peter W J; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Possingham, Hugh P

2010-04-01

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species.

Is extinction forever?

PubMed Central

Bridge, Eli S.; Crawford, Priscilla H. C.; Hough, Daniel J.; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Patten, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Mistrust of science has seeped into public perception of the most fundamental aspect of conservation—extinction. The term ought to be straightforward, and yet, there is a disconnect between scientific discussion and public views. This is not a mere semantic issue, rather one of communication. Within a population dynamics context, we say that a species went locally extinct, later to document its return. Conveying our findings matters, for when we use local extinction, an essentially nonsensical phrase, rather than extirpation, which is what is meant, then we contribute to, if not create outright, a problem for public understanding of conservation, particularly as local extinction is often shortened to extinction in media sources. The public that receives the message of our research void of context and modifiers comes away with the idea that extinction is not forever or, worse for conservation as a whole, that an extinction crisis has been invented. PMID:25711479

Extinction time of a stochastic predator-prey model by the generalized cell mapping method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Qun; Xu, Wei; Hu, Bing; Huang, Dongmei; Sun, Jian-Qiao

2018-03-01

The stochastic response and extinction time of a predator-prey model with Gaussian white noise excitations are studied by the generalized cell mapping (GCM) method based on the short-time Gaussian approximation (STGA). The methods for stochastic response probability density functions (PDFs) and extinction time statistics are developed. The Taylor expansion is used to deal with non-polynomial nonlinear terms of the model for deriving the moment equations with Gaussian closure, which are needed for the STGA in order to compute the one-step transition probabilities. The work is validated with direct Monte Carlo simulations. We have presented the transient responses showing the evolution from a Gaussian initial distribution to a non-Gaussian steady-state one. The effects of the model parameter and noise intensities on the steady-state PDFs are discussed. It is also found that the effects of noise intensities on the extinction time statistics are opposite to the effects on the limit probability distributions of the survival species.

Modeling of site occupancy dynamics for northern spotted owls, with emphasis on the effects of barred owls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Gail S.; Anthony, Robert G.; Forsman, Eric D.; Ackers, Steven H.; Loschl, Peter J.; Reid, Janice A.; Dugger, Katie M.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Ripple, William J.

2005-01-01

Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) have been studied intensively since their listing as a threatened species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. Studies of spotted owl site occupancy have used various binary response measures, but most of these studies have made the assumption that detectability is perfect, or at least high and not variable. Further, previous studies did not consider temporal variation in site occupancy. We used relatively new methods for open population modeling of site occupancy that incorporated imperfect and variable detectability of spotted owls and allowed modeling of temporal variation in site occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities. We also examined the effects of barred owl (S. varia) presence on these parameters. We used spotted owl survey data from 1990 to 2002 for 3 study areas in Oregon, USA, and we used program MARK to develop and analyze site occupancy models. We found per visit detection probabilities averaged <0.70 and were highly variable among study years and study areas. Site occupancy probabilities for owl pairs declined greatly on 1 study area and slightly on the other 2 areas. For all owls, including singles and pairs, site occupancy was mostly stable through time. Barred owl presence had a negative effect on spotted owl detection probabilities, and it had either a positive effect on local-extinction probabilities or a negative effect on colonization probabilities. We conclude that further analyses of spotted owls must account for imperfect and variable detectability and barred owl presence to properly interpret results. Further, because barred owl presence is increasing within the range of northern spotted owls, we expect to see further declines in the proportion of sites occupied by spotted owls.

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

PubMed

Boakes, Elizabeth H; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Fuller, Richard A; Mace, Georgina M; McGowan, Philip J K

2018-02-01

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Local extinction of a coral reef fish explained by inflexible prey choice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooker, R. M.; Munday, P. L.; Brandl, S. J.; Jones, G. P.

2014-12-01

While global extinctions of marine species are infrequent, local extinctions are becoming common. However, the role of habitat degradation and resource specialisation in explaining local extinction is unknown. On coral reefs, coral bleaching is an increasingly frequent cause of coral mortality that can result in dramatic changes to coral community composition. Coral-associated fishes are often specialised on a limited suite of coral species and are therefore sensitive to these changes. This study documents the local extinction of a corallivorous reef fish, Oxymonacanthus longirostris, following a mass bleaching event that altered the species composition of associated coral communities. Local extinction only occurred on reefs that also completely lost a key prey species, Acropora millepora, even though coral cover remained high. In an experimental test, fish continued to select bleached A. millepora over the healthy, but less-preferred prey species that resisted bleaching. These results suggest that behavioural inflexibility may limit the ability of specialists to cope with even subtle changes to resource availability.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

PubMed

Wiens, John J

2016-12-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species

PubMed Central

Wiens, John J.

2016-01-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the “warm edges” of species’ ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades. PMID:27930674

Global optical climatology of the free tropospheric aerosol from 1.0-micron satellite occultation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kent, G. S.; Schaffner, S. K.; Mccormick, M. P.

1991-01-01

Measurements of the aerosol/molecular extinction ratio at 1-micron wavelength, obtained from the SAGE I, SAGE II, and SAM II solar occultation satellite experiments between 1978 and 1986, have been used to study the global-scale behavior of the upper tropospheric aerosol. The distribution of extinction ratio values shows a pronounced mode between about 0.5 and 5 in all data subsets, regardless of latitude and season. Within a given latitude band and season with mode value is nearly constant over the altitude range from about 5 km above the earth's surface to 3 km below the tropopause. The mode shows a distinct seasonal variation, with maxima in local spring and summer, and is significantly enhanced following vlocanic injection of material into the stratosphere. South of latitude 20-deg N, mode values in the absence of volcanic contamination are normally between 0.5 and 1.0 north of 20-deg N, values up to about 5 are observed, probably associated with aerosol derived from surface dust or anthropogenic sources. A secondary mode, with extinction ratios of 30 or greater and little or no variation of extinction with wavelength, is apparent just below the tropopause. This mode is believed to be associated with thin cloud along the ray path from the sun to the satellite.

Geography of end-Cretaceous marine bivalve extinctions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, David M.; Jablonski, David

1993-01-01

Analysis of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, based on 3514 occurrences of 340 genera of marine bivalves (Mollusca), suggests that extinction intensities were uniformly global; no latitudinal gradients or other geographic patterns are detected. Elevated extinction intensities in some tropical areas are entirely a result of the distribution of one extinct group of highly specialized bivalves, the rudists. When rudists are omitted, intensities at those localities are statistically indistinguishable from those of both the rudist-free tropics and extratropical localities.

Flow field and scalar measurements in a series of turbulent partially-premixed dimethyl ether/air jet flames

DOE PAGES

Coriton, Bruno; Im, Seong -Kyun; Gamba, Mirko; ...

2017-03-12

Here, we present a series of benchmark flames consisting of six partially-premixed piloted dimethyl ether (DME)/air jet flames. These flames provide an opportunity to understand turbulence-flame interactions for oxygenated fuels and to develop predictive models for these interactions using a canonical burner geometry. The development of accurate models for DME/air flames would establish a foundation for studies of more complex oxygenated fuels. The flames are stabilized on a piloted jet burner similar to that of the partially-premixed methane/air jet flames that have been studied extensively within the context of the TNF Workshop. This series of six jet flames spans jetmore » exit Reynolds numbers, ReD, from 29,300 to 73,300 and stoichiometric mixture fractions, ξ st, from 0.35 to 0.60. Flame conditions range from very low probability of localized extinction to a high probability of localized extinction and subsequent re-ignition. Measurements in the flames are compared at downstream locations from 5 to 25 diameters above the nozzle exit. Mean and fluctuating velocity components are measured using stereo particle image velocimetry (SPIV). Simultaneous laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) imaging of OH and CH 2O provides insights into the distribution of these intermediate species in partially-premixed DME/air flames. OH LIF imaging is also combined with SPIV to investigate the strain rate field across the reaction zone.« less

Flow field and scalar measurements in a series of turbulent partially-premixed dimethyl ether/air jet flames

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coriton, Bruno; Im, Seong -Kyun; Gamba, Mirko

Here, we present a series of benchmark flames consisting of six partially-premixed piloted dimethyl ether (DME)/air jet flames. These flames provide an opportunity to understand turbulence-flame interactions for oxygenated fuels and to develop predictive models for these interactions using a canonical burner geometry. The development of accurate models for DME/air flames would establish a foundation for studies of more complex oxygenated fuels. The flames are stabilized on a piloted jet burner similar to that of the partially-premixed methane/air jet flames that have been studied extensively within the context of the TNF Workshop. This series of six jet flames spans jetmore » exit Reynolds numbers, ReD, from 29,300 to 73,300 and stoichiometric mixture fractions, ξ st, from 0.35 to 0.60. Flame conditions range from very low probability of localized extinction to a high probability of localized extinction and subsequent re-ignition. Measurements in the flames are compared at downstream locations from 5 to 25 diameters above the nozzle exit. Mean and fluctuating velocity components are measured using stereo particle image velocimetry (SPIV). Simultaneous laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) imaging of OH and CH 2O provides insights into the distribution of these intermediate species in partially-premixed DME/air flames. OH LIF imaging is also combined with SPIV to investigate the strain rate field across the reaction zone.« less

The extinction differential induced virulence macroevolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Feng; Xu, Liufang; Wang, Jin

2014-04-01

We apply the potential-flux landscape theory to deal with the large fluctuation induced extinction phenomena. We quantify the most probable extinction pathway on the landscape and measure the extinction risk by the landscape topography. In this Letter, we investigate the disease extinction through an epidemic model described by a set of chemical reaction. We found the virulence-differential-dependent symbioses between mother and daughter pathogen species: mutualism and parasitism. The symbioses, whether mutualism or parasitism, benefit the higher virulence species. This implies that speciation towards lower virulence is an effective strategy for a pathogen species to reduce its extinction risk.

Stochastic models for the Trojan Y-Chromosome eradication strategy of an invasive species.

PubMed

Wang, Xueying; Walton, Jay R; Parshad, Rana D

2016-01-01

The Trojan Y-Chromosome (TYC) strategy, an autocidal genetic biocontrol method, has been proposed to eliminate invasive alien species. In this work, we develop a Markov jump process model for this strategy, and we verify that there is a positive probability for wild-type females going extinct within a finite time. Moreover, when sex-reversed Trojan females are introduced at a constant population size, we formulate a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model as an approximation to the proposed Markov jump process model. Using the SDE model, we investigate the probability distribution and expectation of the extinction time of wild-type females by solving Kolmogorov equations associated with these statistics. The results indicate how the probability distribution and expectation of the extinction time are shaped by the initial conditions and the model parameters.

Optimal allocation of conservation resources to species that may be extinct.

PubMed

Rout, Tracy M; Heinze, Dean; McCarthy, Michael A

2010-08-01

Statements of extinction will always be uncertain because of imperfect detection of species in the wild. Two errors can be made when declaring a species extinct. Extinction can be declared prematurely, with a resulting loss of protection and management intervention. Alternatively, limited conservation resources can be wasted attempting to protect a species that no longer exists. Rather than setting an arbitrary level of certainty at which to declare extinction, we argue that the decision must trade off the expected costs of both errors. Optimal decisions depend on the cost of continued intervention, the probability the species is extant, and the estimated value of management (the benefit of management times the value of the species). We illustrated our approach with three examples: the Dodo (Raphus cucullatus), the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (U.S. subspecies Campephilus principalis principalis), and the mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus). The dodo was extremely unlikely to be extant, so managing and monitoring for it today would not be cost-effective unless the value of management was extremely high. The probability the Ivory-billed woodpecker is extant depended on whether recent controversial sightings were accepted. Without the recent controversial sightings, it was optimal to declare extinction of the species in 1965 at the latest. Accepting the recent controversial sightings, it was optimal to continue monitoring and managing until 2032 at the latest. The mountain pygmy-possum is currently extant, with a rapidly declining sighting rate. It was optimal to conduct as many as 66 surveys without sighting before declaring the species extinct. The probability of persistence remained high even after many surveys without sighting because it was difficult to determine whether the species was extinct or undetected. If the value of management is high enough, continued intervention can be cost-effective even if the species is likely to be extinct.

COMDYN: Software to study the dynamics of animal communities using a capture-recapture approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, J.E.; Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.

1999-01-01

COMDYN is a set of programs developed for estimation of parameters associated with community dynamics using count data from two locations or time periods. It is Internet-based, allowing remote users either to input their own data, or to use data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey for analysis. COMDYN allows probability of detection to vary among species and among locations and time periods. The basic estimator for species richness underlying all estimators is the jackknife estimator proposed by Burnham and Overton. Estimators are presented for quantities associated with temporal change in species richness, including rate of change in species richness over time, local extinction probability, local species turnover and number of local colonizing species. Estimators are also presented for quantities associated with spatial variation in species richness, including relative richness at two locations and proportion of species present in one location that are also present at a second location. Application of the estimators to species richness estimation has been previously described and justified. The potential applications of these programs are discussed.

Crocodilian Nest in a Late Cretaceous Sauropod Hatchery from the Type Lameta Ghat Locality, Jabalpur, India

PubMed Central

Srivastava, Rahul; Patnaik, Rajeev; Shukla, U. K.; Sahni, Ashok

2015-01-01

The well-known Late Cretaceous Lameta Ghat locality (Jabalpur, India) provides a window of opportunity to study a large stable, near shore sandy beach, which was widely used by sauropod dinosaurs as a hatchery. In this paper, we revisit the eggs and eggshell fragments previously assigned to lizards from this locality and reassign them to crocodylomorphs. Several features point to a crocodilian affinity, including a subspherical to ellipsoidal shape, smooth, uneven external surface, discrete trapezoid shaped shell units with wide top and narrow base, basal knobs and wedge shaped crystallites showing typical inverted triangular extinction under crossed nicols. The crocodylomorph eggshell material presented in this paper adds to the skeletal data of these most probably Cretaceous-Eocene dryosaurid crocodiles. PMID:26641665

Introduction pathway and climate trump ecology and life history as predictors of establishment success in alien frogs and toads

PubMed Central

Rago, Alfredo; While, Geoffrey M; Uller, Tobias

2012-01-01

A major goal for ecology and evolution is to understand how abiotic and biotic factors shape patterns of biological diversity. Here, we show that variation in establishment success of nonnative frogs and toads is primarily explained by variation in introduction pathways and climatic similarity between the native range and introduction locality, with minor contributions from phylogeny, species ecology, and life history. This finding contrasts with recent evidence that particular species characteristics promote evolutionary range expansion and reduce the probability of extinction in native populations of amphibians, emphasizing how different mechanisms may shape species distributions on different temporal and spatial scales. We suggest that contemporary changes in the distribution of amphibians will be primarily determined by human-mediated extinctions and movement of species within climatic envelopes, and less by species-typical traits. PMID:22957152

Context Switch Effects on Acquisition and Extinction in Human Predictive Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosas, Juan M.; Callejas-Aguilera, Jose E.

2006-01-01

Four experiments tested context switch effects on acquisition and extinction in human predictive learning. A context switch impaired probability judgments about a cue-outcome relationship when the cue was trained in a context in which a different cue underwent extinction. The context switch also impaired judgments about a cue trained in a context…

Species extinction thresholds in the face of spatially correlated periodic disturbance.

PubMed

Liao, Jinbao; Ying, Zhixia; Hiebeler, David E; Wang, Yeqiao; Takada, Takenori; Nijs, Ivan

2015-10-20

The spatial correlation of disturbance is gaining attention in landscape ecology, but knowledge is still lacking on how species traits determine extinction thresholds under spatially correlated disturbance regimes. Here we develop a pair approximation model to explore species extinction risk in a lattice-structured landscape subject to aggregated periodic disturbance. Increasing disturbance extent and frequency accelerated population extinction irrespective of whether dispersal was local or global. Spatial correlation of disturbance likewise increased species extinction risk, but only for local dispersers. This indicates that models based on randomly simulated disturbances (e.g., mean-field or non-spatial models) may underestimate real extinction rates. Compared to local dispersal, species with global dispersal tolerated more severe disturbance, suggesting that the spatial correlation of disturbance favors long-range dispersal from an evolutionary perspective. Following disturbance, intraspecific competition greatly enhanced the extinction risk of distance-limited dispersers, while it surprisingly did not influence the extinction thresholds of global dispersers, apart from decreasing population density to some degree. As species respond differently to disturbance regimes with different spatiotemporal properties, different regimes may accommodate different species.

A scale of greatness and causal classification of mass extinctions: Implications for mechanisms

PubMed Central

Şengör, A. M. Celâl; Atayman, Saniye; Özeren, Sinan

2008-01-01

A quantitative scale for measuring greatness, G, of mass extinctions is proposed on the basis of rate of biodiversity diminution expressed as the product of the loss of biodiversity, called magnitude (M), and the inverse of time in which that loss occurs, designated as intensity (I). On this scale, the catastrophic Cretaceous–Tertiary (K-T) extinction appears as the greatest since the Ordovician and the only one with a probable extraterrestrial cause. The end-Permian extinction was less great but with a large magnitude (M) and smaller intensity (I); only some of its individual episodes involved some semblance of catastrophe. Other extinctions during the Phanerozoic, with the possible exception of the end-Silurian diversity plunge, were parts of a forced oscillatory phenomenon and seem caused by marine- and land-habitat destruction during continental assemblies that led to elimination of shelves and (after the Devonian) rain forests and enlargement of deserts. Glaciations and orogenies that shortened and thickened the continental crust only exacerbated these effects. During the Mesozoic and Cainozoic, the evolution of life was linearly progressive, interrupted catastrophically only at the K-T boundary. The end-Triassic extinction was more like the Paleozoic extinctions in nature and probably also in its cause. By contrast, the current extinction resembles none of the earlier ones and may end up being the greatest of all. PMID:18779562

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Crisis of Japanese Vascular Flora Shown By Quantifying Extinction Risks for 1618 Taxa

PubMed Central

Kadoya, Taku; Takenaka, Akio; Ishihama, Fumiko; Fujita, Taku; Ogawa, Makoto; Katsuyama, Teruo; Kadono, Yasuro; Kawakubo, Nobumitsu; Serizawa, Shunsuke; Takahashi, Hideki; Takamiya, Masayuki; Fujii, Shinji; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Muneda, Kazuo; Yokota, Masatsugu; Yonekura, Koji; Yahara, Tetsukazu

2014-01-01

Although many people have expressed alarm that we are witnessing a mass extinction, few projections have been quantified, owing to limited availability of time-series data on threatened organisms, especially plants. To quantify the risk of extinction, we need to monitor changes in population size over time for as many species as possible. Here, we present the world's first quantitative projection of plant species loss at a national level, with stochastic simulations based on the results of population censuses of 1618 threatened plant taxa in 3574 map cells of ca. 100 km2. More than 500 lay botanists helped monitor those taxa in 1994–1995 and in 2003–2004. We projected that between 370 and 561 vascular plant taxa will go extinct in Japan during the next century if past trends of population decline continue. This extinction rate is approximately two to three times the global rate. Using time-series data, we show that existing national protected areas (PAs) covering ca. 7% of Japan will not adequately prevent population declines: even core PAs can protect at best <60% of local populations from decline. Thus, the Aichi Biodiversity Target to expand PAs to 17% of land (and inland water) areas, as committed to by many national governments, is not enough: only 29.2% of currently threatened species will become non-threatened under the assumption that probability of protection success by PAs is 0.5, which our assessment shows is realistic. In countries where volunteers can be organized to monitor threatened taxa, censuses using our method should be able to quantify how fast we are losing species and to assess how effective current conservation measures such as PAs are in preventing species extinction. PMID:24922311

Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models.

PubMed

Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2006-02-01

Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting population change and for managing rare species, but they are less useful for predicting extinction risk in the face of changing environmental conditions. Deterministic models provide point estimates of lambda, the finite rate of increase, as well as measures of matrix sensitivity and elasticity. Stationary matrix models can be used to estimate extinction risk in a variable environment, but they assume that the matrix elements are randomly sampled from a stationary (i.e., non-changing) distribution. Here we outline a method for using nonstationary matrix models to construct realistic forecasts of population fluctuation in changing environments. Our method requires three pieces of data: (1) field estimates of transition matrix elements, (2) experimental data on the demographic responses of populations to altered environmental conditions, and (3) forecasting data on environmental drivers. These three pieces of data are combined to generate a series of sequential transition matrices that emulate a pattern of long-term change in environmental drivers. Realistic estimates of population persistence and extinction risk can be derived from stochastic permutations of such a model. We illustrate the steps of this analysis with data from two populations of Sarracenia purpurea growing in northern New England. Sarracenia purpurea is a perennial carnivorous plant that is potentially at risk of local extinction because of increased nitrogen deposition. Long-term monitoring records or models of environmental change can be used to generate time series of driver variables under different scenarios of changing environments. Both manipulative and natural experiments can be used to construct a linking function that describes how matrix parameters change as a function of the environmental driver. This synthetic modeling approach provides quantitative estimates of extinction probability that have an explicit mechanistic basis.

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change.

PubMed

Moor, Helen

2017-01-01

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development.

Growth, productivity, and relative extinction risk of a data-sparse devil ray

PubMed Central

Pardo, Sebastián A.; Kindsvater, Holly K.; Cuevas-Zimbrón, Elizabeth; Sosa-Nishizaki, Oscar; Pérez-Jiménez, Juan Carlos; Dulvy, Nicholas K.

2016-01-01

Devil rays (Mobula spp.) face intensifying fishing pressure to meet the ongoing international demand for gill plates. The paucity of information on growth, mortality, and fishing effort for devil rays make quantifying population growth rates and extinction risk challenging. Furthermore, unlike manta rays (Manta spp.), devil rays have not been listed on CITES. Here, we use a published size-at-age dataset for the Spinetail Devil Ray (Mobula japanica), to estimate somatic growth rates, age at maturity, maximum age, and natural and fishing mortality. We then estimate a plausible distribution of the maximum intrinsic population growth rate (rmax) and compare it to 95 other chondrichthyans. We find evidence that larger devil ray species have low somatic growth rate, low annual reproductive output, and low maximum population growth rates, suggesting they have low productivity. Fishing rates of a small-scale artisanal Mexican fishery were comparable to our estimate of rmax, and therefore probably unsustainable. Devil ray rmax is very similar to that of manta rays, indicating devil rays can potentially be driven to local extinction at low levels of fishing mortality and that a similar degree of protection for both groups is warranted. PMID:27658342

Non-native salmonids affect amphibian occupancy at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Hossack, Blake R.; Bahls, Peter F.; Bull, Evelyn L.; Corn, Paul Stephen; Hokit, Grant; Maxell, Bryce A.; Munger, James C.; Wyrick, Aimee

2010-01-01

Aim The introduction of non-native species into aquatic environments has been linked with local extinctions and altered distributions of native species. We investigated the effect of non-native salmonids on the occupancy of two native amphibians, the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), across three spatial scales: water bodies, small catchments and large catchments. Location Mountain lakes at ≥ 1500 m elevation were surveyed across the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Methods We surveyed 2267 water bodies for amphibian occupancy (based on evidence of reproduction) and fish presence between 1986 and 2002 and modelled the probability of amphibian occupancy at each spatial scale in relation to habitat availability and quality and fish presence. Results After accounting for habitat features, we estimated that A. macrodactylum was 2.3 times more likely to breed in fishless water bodies than in water bodies with fish. Ambystoma macrodactylum also was more likely to occupy small catchments where none of the water bodies contained fish than in catchments where at least one water body contained fish. However, the probability of salamander occupancy in small catchments was also influenced by habitat availability (i.e. the number of water bodies within a catchment) and suitability of remaining fishless water bodies. We found no relationship between fish presence and salamander occupancy at the large-catchment scale, probably because of increased habitat availability. In contrast to A. macrodactylum, we found no relationship between fish presence and R. luteiventris occupancy at any scale. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the negative effects of non-native salmonids can extend beyond the boundaries of individual water bodies and increase A. macrodactylum extinction risk at landscape scales. We suspect that niche overlap between non-native fish and A. macrodactylum at higher elevations in the northern Rocky Mountains may lead to extinction in catchments with limited suitable habitat.

mGluR2/3 in the Lateral Amygdala is Required for Fear Extinction: Cortical Input Synapses onto the Lateral Amygdala as a Target Site of the mGluR2/3 Action

PubMed Central

Kim, Jihye; An, Bobae; Kim, Jeongyeon; Park, Sewon; Park, Sungmo; Hong, Ingie; Lee, Sukwon; Park, Kyungjoon; Choi, Sukwoo

2015-01-01

Various subtypes of metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGluRs) have been implicated in fear extinction, but mGluR2/3 subtype has not been tested. Here, we found that microinjection of an mGluR2/3 antagonist, LY341495, into the lateral amygdala (LA), but not into the adjacent central amygdala (CeA), impaired extinction retention without affecting within-session extinction. In contrast, we failed to detect any significant changes in motility and anxiety during a period when extinction training or retention was performed after LY341495 injection, suggesting that the effect of LY341495 is specific to conditioned responses. Subsequently, on the basis of a previous finding that a long-term potentiation of presynaptic efficacy at cortical input synapses onto the lateral amygdala (C-LA synapses) supports conditioned fear, we tested the hypothesis that activation of mGluR2/3 leads to fear extinction via a long-term weakening of presynaptic functions at C-LA synapses. Fear extinction produced a decrease in C-LA synaptic efficacy, whereas LY341495 infusion into the LA blocked this extinction-induced C-LA efficacy decrease without altering synaptic efficacy at other LA synapses. Furthermore, extinction enhanced paired pulse ratio (PPR) of EPSCs, which inversely correlates with presynaptic release probability, whereas LY341495 infusion into the LA attenuated the extinction-induced increase in PPR, suggesting the presence of mGluR2/3-dependent presynaptic changes after extinction. Consistently, extinction occluded a presynaptic form of depression at C-LA synapses, whereas the LY341495 infusion into the LA rescued this occlusion. Together, our findings suggest that mGluR2/3 is required for extinction retention and that the mGluR2/3 action is mediated by the long-term weakening of release probability at C-LA synapses. PMID:26081171

Avian response to shade‐layer restoration in coffee plantations in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irizarry, Amarilys D.; Collazo, Jaime A.; Pacifici, Krishna; Reich, Brian J.; Battle, Kathryn E.

2018-01-01

Documenting the evolving processes associated with habitat restoration and how long it takes to detect avian demographic responses is crucial to evaluate the success of restoration initiatives and to identify ways to improve their effectiveness. The importance of this endeavor prompted the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service to evaluate their sun‐to‐shade coffee restoration program in Puerto Rico initiated in 2003. We quantified the responses of 12 resident avian species using estimates of local occupancy and extinction probabilities based on surveys conducted in 2015–2017 at 65 restored farms grouped according to time‐since‐initial‐restoration (TSIR): new (2011–2014), intermediate (2007–2010), and old (2003–2006). We also surveyed 40 forest sites, which served as reference sites. Vegetation complexity increased with TSIR, ranging between 35 and 40% forest cover in farms 6–9 years TSIR. Forest specialists (e.g. Loxigilla portoricencis) exhibited highest average occupancy in farms initially classified as intermediate (6–9 years) and old (>10 years), paralleling occupancy in secondary forests. Occupancy of open‐habitat specialists (e.g. Tiaris olivaceus) was more variable, but higher in recently restored farms. Restoring the shade layer has the potential to heighten ecological services derived from forest specialists (e.g. frugivores) without losing the services of many open‐habitat specialists (e.g. insectivores). Annual local extinction probability for forest specialists decreased with increasing habitat complexity, strengthening the potential value of shade restoration as a tool to enhance habitat for avifauna that evolved in forested landscapes.

The probability of reinforcement per trial affects posttrial responding and subsequent extinction but not within-trial responding.

PubMed

Harris, Justin A; Kwok, Dorothy W S

2018-01-01

During magazine approach conditioning, rats do not discriminate between a conditional stimulus (CS) that is consistently reinforced with food and a CS that is occasionally (partially) reinforced, as long as the CSs have the same overall reinforcement rate per second. This implies that rats are indifferent to the probability of reinforcement per trial. However, in the same rats, the per-trial reinforcement rate will affect subsequent extinction-responding extinguishes more rapidly for a CS that was consistently reinforced than for a partially reinforced CS. Here, we trained rats with consistently and partially reinforced CSs that were matched for overall reinforcement rate per second. We measured conditioned responding both during and immediately after the CSs. Differences in the per-trial probability of reinforcement did not affect the acquisition of responding during the CS but did affect subsequent extinction of that responding, and also affected the post-CS response rates during conditioning. Indeed, CSs with the same probability of reinforcement per trial evoked the same amount of post-CS responding even when they differed in overall reinforcement rate and thus evoked different amounts of responding during the CS. We conclude that reinforcement rate per second controls rats' acquisition of responding during the CS, but at the same time, rats also learn specifically about the probability of reinforcement per trial. The latter learning affects the rats' expectation of reinforcement as an outcome of the trial, which influences their ability to detect retrospectively that an opportunity for reinforcement was missed, and, in turn, drives extinction. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Real fuel effects on flame extinction and re-ignition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xinyu; Wu, Bifen; Xu, Chao; Lu, Tianfeng; Chen, Jacqueline H.

2016-11-01

Flame-vortex interactions have significant implications in studying combustion in practical aeronautical engines, and can be used to facilitate the model development in capturing local extinction and re-ignition. To study the interactions between the complex fuel and the intense turbulence that are commonly encountered in engines, direct numerical simulations of the interactions between a flame and a vortex pair are carried out using a recently-developed 24-species reduced chemistry for n-dodecane. Both non-premixed and premixed flames with different initial and inlet thermochemical conditions are studied. Parametric studies of different vortex strengths and orientations are carried out to induce maximum local extinction and re-ignition. Chemical-explosive-mode-analysis based flame diagnostic tools are used to identify different modes of combustion, including auto-ignition and extinction. Results obtained from the reduced chemistry are compared with those obtained from one-step chemistry to quantify the effect of fuel pyrolysis on the extinction limit. Effects of flame curvature, heat loss and unsteadiness on flame extinction are also explored. Finally, the validity of current turbulent combustion models to capture the local extinction and re-ignition will be discussed.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

The Loss of Species: Mangrove Extinction Risk and Geographic Areas of Global Concern

PubMed Central

Polidoro, Beth A.; Carpenter, Kent E.; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Ellison, Joanna C.; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J.; Fernando, Edwino S.; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E.; Livingstone, Suzanne R.; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E.; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H.; Salmo, Severino G.; Sanciangco, Jonnell C.; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

2010-01-01

Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced. PMID:20386710

Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior

PubMed Central

Jönsson, Mari T.; Thor, Göran

2012-01-01

At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and management strategies must account for secondary extinctions associated with epidemic tree death. PMID:23049840

Extinction, recolonization, and dispersal through time in a planktonic crustacean.

PubMed

Mergeay, Joachim; Vanoverbeke, Joost; Verschuren, Dirk; De Meester, Luc

2007-12-01

Dormant propagule banks are important reservoirs of biological and genetic diversity of local communities and populations and provide buffering mechanisms against extinction. Although dormant stages of various plant and animal species are known to remain viable for decades and even centuries, little is known about the effective influence of recolonization from such old sources on the genetic continuity of intermittent populations under natural conditions. Using recent and old dormant eggs recovered from a dated lake sediment core in Kenya, we traced the genetic composition of a local population of the planktonic crustacean Daphnia barbata through a sequence of extinction and recolonization events. This was combined with a phylogeographic and population-genetic survey of regional populations. Four successive populations, fully separated in time, inhabited Lake Naivasha from ca. 1330 to 1570 AD, from ca. 1610 to 1720 AD, from ca. 1840 to 1940 AD, and from 1995 to the present (2001 AD). Our results strongly indicate genetic continuity between the 1840-1940 and 1995-2001 populations, which are separated in time by at least 50 years, and close genetic relatedness of them both to the 1330-1580 population. A software tool (Colonize) was developed to find the most likely source population of the refounded 1995-2001 population and to test the number of colonists involved in the recolonization event. The results confirmed that the 1995-2001 population most probably developed out of a limited number of surviving local dormant eggs from the previous population, rather than out of individuals from regional (central and southern Kenya) or more distant (Ethiopia, Zimbabwe) populations that may have immigrated to Lake Naivasha through passive dispersal. These results emphasize the importance of prolonged dormancy for the natural long-term dynamics of crustacean zooplankton in fluctuating environments and suggest an important role of old local dormant egg banks in aquatic habitat restoration.

Sur la vitesse d'extinction d'une population dans un environnement aléatoire.

PubMed

Bacaër, Nicolas

2017-05-01

This study focuses on the speed of extinction of a population living in a random environment that follows a continuous-time Markov chain. Each individual dies or reproduces at a rate that depends on the environment. The number of offspring during reproduction follows a given probability law that also depends on the environment. In the so-called subcritical case where the population goes for sure to extinction, there is an explicit formula for the speed of extinction. In some sense, environmental stochasticity slows down population extinction. Copyright © 2017 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

PubMed

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

Electromagnetic wave extinction within a forested canopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karam, M. A.; Fung, A. K.

1989-01-01

A forested canopy is modeled by a collection of randomly oriented finite-length cylinders shaded by randomly oriented and distributed disk- or needle-shaped leaves. For a plane wave exciting the forested canopy, the extinction coefficient is formulated in terms of the extinction cross sections (ECSs) in the local frame of each forest component and the Eulerian angles of orientation (used to describe the orientation of each component). The ECSs in the local frame for the finite-length cylinders used to model the branches are obtained by using the forward-scattering theorem. ECSs in the local frame for the disk- and needle-shaped leaves are obtained by the summation of the absorption and scattering cross-sections. The behavior of the extinction coefficients with the incidence angle is investigated numerically for both deciduous and coniferous forest. The dependencies of the extinction coefficients on the orientation of the leaves are illustrated numerically.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

PubMed Central

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

Extinction risk is most acute for the world’s largest and smallest vertebrates

PubMed Central

Ripple, William J.; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M.; Hoffmann, Michael; Wirsing, Aaron J.; McCauley, Douglas J.

2017-01-01

Extinction risk in vertebrates has been linked to large body size, but this putative relationship has only been explored for select taxa, with variable results. Using a newly assembled and taxonomically expansive database, we analyzed the relationships between extinction risk and body mass (27,647 species) and between extinction risk and range size (21,294 species) for vertebrates across six main classes. We found that the probability of being threatened was positively and significantly related to body mass for birds, cartilaginous fishes, and mammals. Bimodal relationships were evident for amphibians, reptiles, and bony fishes. Most importantly, a bimodal relationship was found across all vertebrates such that extinction risk changes around a body mass breakpoint of 0.035 kg, indicating that the lightest and heaviest vertebrates have elevated extinction risk. We also found range size to be an important predictor of the probability of being threatened, with strong negative relationships across nearly all taxa. A review of the drivers of extinction risk revealed that the heaviest vertebrates are most threatened by direct killing by humans. By contrast, the lightest vertebrates are most threatened by habitat loss and modification stemming especially from pollution, agricultural cropping, and logging. Our results offer insight into halting the ongoing wave of vertebrate extinctions by revealing the vulnerability of large and small taxa, and identifying size-specific threats. Moreover, they indicate that, without intervention, anthropogenic activities will soon precipitate a double truncation of the size distribution of the world’s vertebrates, fundamentally reordering the structure of life on our planet. PMID:28923917

Extinction risk is most acute for the world's largest and smallest vertebrates.

PubMed

Ripple, William J; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M; Hoffmann, Michael; Wirsing, Aaron J; McCauley, Douglas J

2017-10-03

Extinction risk in vertebrates has been linked to large body size, but this putative relationship has only been explored for select taxa, with variable results. Using a newly assembled and taxonomically expansive database, we analyzed the relationships between extinction risk and body mass (27,647 species) and between extinction risk and range size (21,294 species) for vertebrates across six main classes. We found that the probability of being threatened was positively and significantly related to body mass for birds, cartilaginous fishes, and mammals. Bimodal relationships were evident for amphibians, reptiles, and bony fishes. Most importantly, a bimodal relationship was found across all vertebrates such that extinction risk changes around a body mass breakpoint of 0.035 kg, indicating that the lightest and heaviest vertebrates have elevated extinction risk. We also found range size to be an important predictor of the probability of being threatened, with strong negative relationships across nearly all taxa. A review of the drivers of extinction risk revealed that the heaviest vertebrates are most threatened by direct killing by humans. By contrast, the lightest vertebrates are most threatened by habitat loss and modification stemming especially from pollution, agricultural cropping, and logging. Our results offer insight into halting the ongoing wave of vertebrate extinctions by revealing the vulnerability of large and small taxa, and identifying size-specific threats. Moreover, they indicate that, without intervention, anthropogenic activities will soon precipitate a double truncation of the size distribution of the world's vertebrates, fundamentally reordering the structure of life on our planet.

Extinction of an introduced warm-climate alien species, Xenopus laevis, by extreme weather events.

PubMed

Tinsley, Richard C; Stott, Lucy C; Viney, Mark E; Mable, Barbara K; Tinsley, Matthew C

Invasive, non-native species represent a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. The African amphibian Xenopus laevis is widely regarded as an invasive species and a threat to local faunas. Populations originating at the Western Cape, South Africa, have been introduced on four continents, mostly in areas with a similar Mediterranean climate. Some introduced populations are also established in cooler environments where persistence for many decades suggests a capacity for long-term adaptation. In these cases, recent climate warming might enhance invasion ability, favouring range expansion, population growth and negative effects on native faunas. In the cool temperate UK, populations have been established for about 50 years in Wales and for an unknown period, probably >20 years, in England (Lincolnshire). Our field studies over 30 and 10 years, respectively, show that in favourable conditions there may be good recruitment, fast individual growth rates and large body size; maximum longevity exceeds 23 years. Nevertheless, areas of distribution remained limited, with numbers <500 in each population. In 2010, only a single individual was captured at each locality and further searching failed to record any others in repeated sampling up to 2014. We conclude that both populations are now extinct. The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 experienced extreme cold and drought (December 2010 was the coldest in 120 years and the third driest in 100 years). The extinction of X. laevis in these areas indicates that even relatively long-established alien species remain vulnerable to rare extreme weather conditions.

Paleo-reconstruction: Using multiple biomarker parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhengzheng

Advanced technologies have played essential roles in the development of molecular organic geochemistry. In this thesis, we have developed several new techniques and explored their applications, alone and with previous techniques, to paleo-reconstruction. First, we developed a protocol to separate biomarker fractions for accurate measurement of compound-specific isotope analysis. This protocol involves combination of zeolite adduction and HPLC separation. Second, an integrated study of traditional biomarker parameters, diamondoids and compound-specific biomarker isotopes, differentiated oil groups from Saudi Arabia. Specifically, Cretaceous reservoired oils were divided into three groups and the Jurassic reservoired oils were divided into two groups. Third, biomarker acids provide an alternative way to characterize biodegradation. Oils from San Joaquin Valley, U.S.A. and oils from Mediterranean display drastically different acid profiles. These differences in biomarker acids probably reflect different processes of biodegradation. Fourth, by analyzing biomarker distributions in the organic-rich rocks recording the onset of Late Ordovician extinction, we propose that changes in salinity associated with eustatic sea-level fall, contributed at least locally to the extinction of graptolite species.

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

PubMed Central

Harnik, Paul G.; Simpson, Carl; Payne, Jonathan L.

2012-01-01

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present. PMID:23097507

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity.

PubMed

Harnik, Paul G; Simpson, Carl; Payne, Jonathan L

2012-12-22

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.

Trait synergisms and the rarity, extirpation, and extinction risk of desert fishes.

PubMed

Olden, Julian D; Poff, N LeRoy; Bestgen, Kevin R

2008-03-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of species extinctions is a central goal in ecology. Faced with the difficult task of identifying those species with the greatest need for conservation, ecologists have turned to using predictive suites of ecological and life-history traits to provide reasonable estimates of species extinction risk. Previous studies have linked individual traits to extinction risk, yet the nonadditive contribution of multiple traits to the entire extinction process, from species rarity to local extirpation to global extinction, has not been examined. This study asks whether trait synergisms predispose native fishes of the Lower Colorado River Basin (USA) to risk of extinction through their effects on rarity and local extirpation and their vulnerability to different sources of threat. Fish species with "slow" life histories (e.g., large body size, long life, and delayed maturity), minimal parental care to offspring, and specialized feeding behaviors are associated with smaller geographic distribution, greater frequency of local extirpation, and higher perceived extinction risk than that expected by simple additive effects of traits in combination. This supports the notion that trait synergisms increase the susceptibility of native fishes to multiple stages of the extinction process, thus making them prone to the multiple jeopardies resulting from a combination of fewer individuals, narrow environmental tolerances, and long recovery times following environmental change. Given that particular traits, some acting in concert, may differentially predispose native fishes to rarity, extirpation, and extinction, we suggest that management efforts in the Lower Colorado River Basin should be congruent with the life-history requirements of multiple species over large spatial and temporal scales.

High-Resolution Coproecology: Using Coprolites to Reconstruct the Habits and Habitats of New Zealand’s Extinct Upland Moa (Megalapteryx didinus)

PubMed Central

Wood, Jamie R.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Wagstaff, Steven J.; Worthy, Trevor H.; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Cooper, Alan

2012-01-01

Knowledge about the diet and ecology of extinct herbivores has important implications for understanding the evolution of plant defence structures, establishing the influences of herbivory on past plant community structure and composition, and identifying pollination and seed dispersal syndromes. The flightless ratite moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes) were New Zealand’s largest herbivores prior to their extinction soon after initial human settlement. Here we contribute to the knowledge of moa diet and ecology by reporting the results of a multidisciplinary study of 35 coprolites from a subalpine cave (Euphrates Cave) on the South Island of New Zealand. Ancient DNA analysis and radiocarbon dating revealed the coprolites were deposited by the extinct upland moa (Megalapteryx didinus), and span from at least 6,368±31 until 694±30 14C years BP; the approximate time of their extinction. Using pollen, plant macrofossil, and ancient DNA analyses, we identified at least 67 plant taxa from the coprolites, including the first evidence that moa fed on the nectar-rich flowers of New Zealand flax (Phormium) and tree fuchsia (Fuchsia excorticata). The plant assemblage from the coprolites reflects a highly-generalist feeding ecology for upland moa, including browsing and grazing across the full range of locally available habitats (spanning southern beech (Nothofagus) forest to tussock (Chionochloa) grassland). Intact seeds in the coprolites indicate that upland moa may have been important dispersal agents for several plant taxa. Plant taxa with putative anti-browse adaptations were also identified in the coprolites. Clusters of coprolites (based on pollen assemblages, moa haplotypes, and radiocarbon dates), probably reflect specimens deposited at the same time by individual birds, and reveal the necessity of suitably large sample sizes in coprolite studies to overcome potential biases in diet interpretation. PMID:22768206

Integrating copper toxicity and climate change to understand extinction risk to two species of pond-breeding anurans.

PubMed

Weir, Scott M; Scott, David E; Salice, Christopher J; Lance, Stacey L

2016-09-01

Chemical contamination is often suggested as an important contributing factor to amphibian population declines, but direct links are rarely reported. Population modeling provides a quantitative method to integrate toxicity data with demographic data to understand the long-term effects of contaminants on population persistence. In this study we use laboratory-derived embryo and larval toxicity data for two anuran species to investigate the potential for toxicity to contribute to population declines. We use the southern toad (Anaxyrus terrestris) and the southern leopard frog (Lithobates sphenocephalus) as model species to investigate copper (Cu) toxicity. We use matrix models to project populations through time and quantify extinction risk (the probability of quasi-extinction in 35 yr). Life-history parameters for toads and frogs were obtained from previously published literature or unpublished data from a long-term (>35 yr) data set. In addition to Cu toxicity, we investigate the role of climate change on amphibian populations by including the probability of early pond drying that results in catastrophic reproductive failure (CRF, i.e., complete mortality of all larval individuals). Our models indicate that CRF is an important parameter for both species as both were unable to persist when CRF probability was >50% for toads or 40% for frogs. Copper toxicity alone did not result in significant effects on extinction risk unless toxicity was very high (>50% reduction in survival parameters). For toads, Cu toxicity and high probability of CRF both resulted in high extinction risk but no synergistic (or greater than additive) effects between the two stressors occurred. For leopard frogs, in the absence of CRF survival was high even under Cu toxicity, but with CRF Cu toxicity increased extinction risk. Our analyses highlight the importance of considering multiple stressors as well as species differences in response to those stressors. Our models were consistently most sensitive to juvenile and adult survival, further suggesting the importance of terrestrial stages to population persistence. Future models will incorporate multiple wetlands with different combinations of stressors to understand if our results for a single wetland result in a population sink within the landscape. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

PubMed

Malinowska, Agnieszka H; van Strien, Arco J; Verboom, Jana; WallisdeVries, Michiel F; Opdam, Paul

2014-01-01

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

No Evidence of the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Annual Occurrence of Four Groups of Ectothermic Species

PubMed Central

Malinowska, Agnieszka H.; van Strien, Arco J.; Verboom, Jana; WallisdeVries, Michiel F.; Opdam, Paul

2014-01-01

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest. PMID:25330414

HP2 survey. III. The California Molecular Cloud: A sleeping giant revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lada, Charles J.; Lewis, John A.; Lombardi, Marco; Alves, João

2017-10-01

We present new high resolution and dynamic range dust column density and temperature maps of the California Molecular Cloud derived from a combination of Planck and Herschel dust-emission maps, and 2MASS NIR dust-extinction maps. We used these data to determine the ratio of the 2.2 μm extinction coefficient to the 850 μm opacity and found the value to be close to that found in similar studies of the Orion B and Perseus clouds but higher than that characterizing the Orion A cloud, indicating that variations in the fundamental optical properties of dust may exist between local clouds. We show that over a wide range of extinction, the column density probability distribution function (pdf) of the cloud can be well described by a simple power law (I.e., PDFN ∝ AK -n) with an index (n = 4.0 ± 0.1) that represents a steeper decline with AK than found (n ≈ 3) in similar studies of the Orion and Perseus clouds. Using only the protostellar population of the cloud and our extinction maps we investigate the Schmidt relation, that is, the relation between the protostellar surface density, Σ∗, and extinction, AK, within the cloud. We show that Σ∗ is directly proportional to the ratio of the protostellar and cloud pdfs, I.e., PDF∗(AK)/PDFN(AK). We use the cumulative distribution of protostars to infer the functional forms for both Σ∗ and PDF∗. We find that Σ∗ is best described by two power-law functions. At extinctions AK ≲ 2.5 mag, Σ∗ ∝ AK β with β = 3.3 while at higher extinctions β = 2.5, both values steeper than those (≈2) found in other local giant molecular clouds (GMCs). We find that PDF∗ is a declining function of extinction also best described by two power-laws whose behavior mirrors that of Σ∗. Our observations suggest that variations both in the slope of the Schmidt relation and in the sizes of the protostellar populations between GMCs are largely driven by variations in the slope, n, of PDFN(AK). This confirms earlier studies suggesting that cloud structure plays a major role in setting the global star formation rates in GMCs HP2 (Herschel-Planck-2MASS) survey is a continuation of the series originally entitled "Herschel-Planck dust opacity and column density maps" (Lombardi et al. 2014, Zari et al. 2016).The reduced Herschel and Planck map and the column density and temperature maps are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/606/A100

Where Does Amber Come from?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Booth, Bibi

2005-01-01

Amber is the fossilized resin of now-extinct trees, primarily ancient conifers but also some flowering tropical trees. An aromatic, soft, sticky substance, resin in extinct trees probably served the same purposes as resin in modern trees: to protect the plant by sealing cuts and by excluding bacteria, fungi, and insects.

Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into "Island" extirpations.

PubMed

Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto

2015-07-01

Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping strategies against unpredictable environmental disturbance, the risk of population extinction can be exacerbated. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Does Litter Size Variation Affect Models of Terrestrial Carnivore Extinction Risk and Management?

PubMed Central

Devenish-Nelson, Eleanor S.; Stephens, Philip A.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl; Richards, Shane A.

2013-01-01

Background Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores. Methodology/Principal Findings We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species – the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used. Conclusion/Significance These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes. PMID:23469140

Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

PubMed

Devenish-Nelson, Eleanor S; Stephens, Philip A; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl; Richards, Shane A

2013-01-01

Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores. We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species - the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used. These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.

The influence of agroforestry and other land-use types on the persistence of a Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) population: an individual-based model approach.

PubMed

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Herzog, Sven; Berger, Uta

2011-08-01

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)--an individual-based model--to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.

Estimating rates of local species extinction, colonization and turnover in animal communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Boulinier, T.; Hines, J.E.; Pollock, K.H.; Sauer, J.R.

1998-01-01

Species richness has been identified as a useful state variable for conservation and management purposes. Changes in richness over time provide a basis for predicting and evaluating community responses to management, to natural disturbance, and to changes in factors such as community composition (e.g., the removal of a keystone species). Probabilistic capture-recapture models have been used recently to estimate species richness from species count and presence-absence data. These models do not require the common assumption that all species are detected in sampling efforts. We extend this approach to the development of estimators useful for studying the vital rates responsible for changes in animal communities over time; rates of local species extinction, turnover, and colonization. Our approach to estimation is based on capture-recapture models for closed animal populations that permit heterogeneity in detection probabilities among the different species in the sampled community. We have developed a computer program, COMDYN, to compute many of these estimators and associated bootstrap variances. Analyses using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) suggested that the estimators performed reasonably well. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modeling for future work on community responses to management efforts as well as on basic questions about community dynamics.

Theoretical size distribution of fossil taxa: analysis of a null model.

PubMed

Reed, William J; Hughes, Barry D

2007-03-22

This article deals with the theoretical size distribution (of number of sub-taxa) of a fossil taxon arising from a simple null model of macroevolution. New species arise through speciations occurring independently and at random at a fixed probability rate, while extinctions either occur independently and at random (background extinctions) or cataclysmically. In addition new genera are assumed to arise through speciations of a very radical nature, again assumed to occur independently and at random at a fixed probability rate. The size distributions of the pioneering genus (following a cataclysm) and of derived genera are determined. Also the distribution of the number of genera is considered along with a comparison of the probability of a monospecific genus with that of a monogeneric family.

Selecting for extinction: nonrandom disease-associated extinction homogenizes amphibian biotas.

PubMed

Smith, Kevin G; Lips, Karen R; Chase, Jonathan M

2009-10-01

Studying the patterns in which local extinctions occur is critical to understanding how extinctions affect biodiversity at local, regional and global spatial scales. To understand the importance of patterns of extinction at a regional spatial scale, we use data from extirpations associated with a widespread pathogenic agent of amphibian decline, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) as a model system. We apply novel null model analyses to these data to determine whether recent extirpations associated with Bd have resulted in selective extinction and homogenization of diverse tropical American amphibian biotas. We find that Bd-associated extinctions in this region were nonrandom and disproportionately, but not exclusively, affected low-occupancy and endemic species, resulting in homogenization of the remnant amphibian fauna. The pattern of extirpations also resulted in phylogenetic homogenization at the family level and ecological homogenization of reproductive mode and habitat association. Additionally, many more species were extirpated from the region than would be expected if extirpations occurred randomly. Our results indicate that amphibian declines in this region are an extinction filter, reducing regional amphibian biodiversity to highly similar relict assemblages and ultimately causing amplified biodiversity loss at regional and global scales.

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species’ overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development. PMID:28520770

Projecting the Local Impacts of Climate Change on a Central American Montane Avian Community

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasner, Matthew R.; Jankowski, Jill E.; Ciecka, Anna L.; Kyle, Keiller O.; Rabenold, Kerry N.

2010-01-01

Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (<1 km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100 km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the Tilaran Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and Panam . Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.

One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts.

PubMed

Carpenter, Kent E; Abrar, Muhammad; Aeby, Greta; Aronson, Richard B; Banks, Stuart; Bruckner, Andrew; Chiriboga, Angel; Cortés, Jorge; Delbeek, J Charles; Devantier, Lyndon; Edgar, Graham J; Edwards, Alasdair J; Fenner, Douglas; Guzmán, Héctor M; Hoeksema, Bert W; Hodgson, Gregor; Johan, Ofri; Licuanan, Wilfredo Y; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Lovell, Edward R; Moore, Jennifer A; Obura, David O; Ochavillo, Domingo; Polidoro, Beth A; Precht, William F; Quibilan, Miledel C; Reboton, Clarissa; Richards, Zoe T; Rogers, Alex D; Sanciangco, Jonnell; Sheppard, Anne; Sheppard, Charles; Smith, Jennifer; Stuart, Simon; Turak, Emre; Veron, John E N; Wallace, Carden; Weil, Ernesto; Wood, Elizabeth

2008-07-25

The conservation status of 845 zooxanthellate reef-building coral species was assessed by using International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Criteria. Of the 704 species that could be assigned conservation status, 32.8% are in categories with elevated risk of extinction. Declines in abundance are associated with bleaching and diseases driven by elevated sea surface temperatures, with extinction risk further exacerbated by local-scale anthropogenic disturbances. The proportion of corals threatened with extinction has increased dramatically in recent decades and exceeds that of most terrestrial groups. The Caribbean has the largest proportion of corals in high extinction risk categories, whereas the Coral Triangle (western Pacific) has the highest proportion of species in all categories of elevated extinction risk. Our results emphasize the widespread plight of coral reefs and the urgent need to enact conservation measures.

Methanogenic burst in the end-Permian carbon cycle.

PubMed

Rothman, Daniel H; Fournier, Gregory P; French, Katherine L; Alm, Eric J; Boyle, Edward A; Cao, Changqun; Summons, Roger E

2014-04-15

The end-Permian extinction is associated with a mysterious disruption to Earth's carbon cycle. Here we identify causal mechanisms via three observations. First, we show that geochemical signals indicate superexponential growth of the marine inorganic carbon reservoir, coincident with the extinction and consistent with the expansion of a new microbial metabolic pathway. Second, we show that the efficient acetoclastic pathway in Methanosarcina emerged at a time statistically indistinguishable from the extinction. Finally, we show that nickel concentrations in South China sediments increased sharply at the extinction, probably as a consequence of massive Siberian volcanism, enabling a methanogenic expansion by removal of nickel limitation. Collectively, these results are consistent with the instigation of Earth's greatest mass extinction by a specific microbial innovation.

Flightless birds: when did the dodo become extinct?

PubMed

Roberts, David L; Solow, Andrew R

2003-11-20

The extinction of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus L.; Fig. 1) is commonly dated to the last confirmed sighting in 1662, reported by Volkert Evertsz on an islet off Mauritius. By this time, the dodo had become extremely rare - the previous sighting having been 24 years earlier - but the species probably persisted unseen beyond this date. Here we use a statistical method to establish the actual extinction time of the dodo as 1690, almost 30 years after its most recent sighting.

Flightless birds: When did the dodo become extinct?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, David L.; Solow, Andrew R.

2003-11-01

The extinction of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus L.; Fig. 1) is commonly dated to the last confirmed sighting in 1662, reported by Volkert Evertsz on an islet off Mauritius. By this time, the dodo had become extremely rare - the previous sighting having been 24 years earlier - but the species probably persisted unseen beyond this date. Here we use a statistical method to establish the actual extinction time of the dodo as 1690, almost 30 years after its most recent sighting.

Short-term occupancy and abundance dynamics of the Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) across its core range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Mccreary, Brome; Galvan, Stephanie

2014-01-01

The Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) occupies only a fraction of its original range and is listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act. We surveyed 93 sites in a rotating frame design (2010–13) in the Klamath and Deschutes Basins, Oregon, which encompass most of the species’ core extant range. Oregon spotted frogs are declining in abundance and probability of site occupancy. We did not find an association between the probability that Oregon spotted frogs disappear from a site (local extinction) and any of the variables hypothesized to affect Oregon spotted frog occupancy. This 4-year study provides baseline data, but the 4-year period was too short to draw firm conclusions. Further study is essential to understand how habitat changes and management practices relate to the status and trends of this species.

Modeling Effects of Local Extinctions on Culture Change and Diversity in the Paleolithic

PubMed Central

Premo, L. S.; Kuhn, Steven L.

2010-01-01

The persistence of early stone tool technologies has puzzled archaeologists for decades. Cognitively based explanations, which presume either lack of ability to innovate or extreme conformism, do not account for the totality of the empirical patterns. Following recent research, this study explores the effects of demographic factors on rates of culture change and diversification. We investigate whether the appearance of stability in early Paleolithic technologies could result from frequent extinctions of local subpopulations within a persistent metapopulation. A spatially explicit agent-based model was constructed to test the influence of local extinction rate on three general cultural patterns that archaeologists might observe in the material record: total diversity, differentiation among spatially defined groups, and the rate of cumulative change. The model shows that diversity, differentiation, and the rate of cumulative cultural change would be strongly affected by local extinction rates, in some cases mimicking the results of conformist cultural transmission. The results have implications for understanding spatial and temporal patterning in ancient material culture. PMID:21179418

Population Declines of Mountain Coqui (Eleutherodactylus portoricensis) in the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Barker, Brittany S.; Ríos-Franceschi, Alejandro

2014-01-01

The Mountain Coqui (Eleutherodactylus portoricensis) is a frog endemic to montane rainforests in the Cordillera Central and Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Classified as endangered by the IUCN Red List and as vulnerable by the Department of Natural and Environmental Resources of Puerto Rico, this species has undergone considerable decline in the Luquillo Mountains. To evaluate the population status of E. portoricensis across its entire range, we conducted ~87 hours of surveys at 18 historical localities and 25 additional localities that we considered suitable for this species. We generated occupancy models to estimate the probability of occurrence at surveyed sites and to identify geographic and climatic factors affecting site occupancy. We also constructed a suitability map to visualize population status in relation to the presence of land cover at elevations where the species has been documented, and determined the dates when populations were last detected at historical localities. Eleutherodactylus portoricensis was detected at 14 of 43 localities, including 10 of 18 historical localities, but it was not detected at any localities west of Aibonito (western Cordillera Central). Occupancy models estimated the probability of occurrence for localities in the western Cordillera Central as zero. Site occupancy was positively associated with montane cloud forest, and negatively associated with the western Cordillera Central, maximum temperature, and precipitation seasonality. The suitability map suggests that declines have occurred despite the presence of suitable habitat. We suggest upgrading the extinction risk of E. portoricensis and potentially developing a captive breeding program for this species. PMID:25685250

Rapid ongoing decline of Baird's tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras.

PubMed

McCANN, Niall P; Wheeler, Phil M; Coles, Tim; Bruford, Michael W

2012-12-01

During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011, the conservation of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Director of the Honduran Institute of Conservation and Forestry (ICF) and the Tapir Specialist Group (TSG). Despite this agreement, accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss continue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in Honduras. An ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy data. The study has identified an increase in hunting pressure, coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir spoor. Here, we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cusuco National Park using the software PRESENCE, and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the future dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX. The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy levels. We found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time frame, but that various intervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying capacity. Occupancy and extinction probability were shown to respond markedly to the increase in hunting pressure; and occupancy models supported the future population predictions generated by VORTEX. Our study suggests that immediate intervention is required to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent local extinction of the species. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Anomalous finite-size effects in the Battle of the Sexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, J.; Reichenbach, T.; Frey, E.

2008-06-01

The Battle of the Sexes describes asymmetric conflicts in mating behavior of males and females. Males can be philanderer or faithful, while females are either fast or coy, leading to a cyclic dynamics. The adjusted replicator equation predicts stable coexistence of all four strategies. In this situation, we consider the effects of fluctuations stemming from a finite population size. We show that they unavoidably lead to extinction of two strategies in the population. However, the typical time until extinction occurs strongly prolongs with increasing system size. In the emerging time window, a quasi-stationary probability distribution forms that is anomalously flat in the vicinity of the coexistence state. This behavior originates in a vanishing linear deterministic drift near the fixed point. We provide numerical data as well as an analytical approach to the mean extinction time and the quasi-stationary probability distribution.

Theoretical size distribution of fossil taxa: analysis of a null model

PubMed Central

Reed, William J; Hughes, Barry D

2007-01-01

Background This article deals with the theoretical size distribution (of number of sub-taxa) of a fossil taxon arising from a simple null model of macroevolution. Model New species arise through speciations occurring independently and at random at a fixed probability rate, while extinctions either occur independently and at random (background extinctions) or cataclysmically. In addition new genera are assumed to arise through speciations of a very radical nature, again assumed to occur independently and at random at a fixed probability rate. Conclusion The size distributions of the pioneering genus (following a cataclysm) and of derived genera are determined. Also the distribution of the number of genera is considered along with a comparison of the probability of a monospecific genus with that of a monogeneric family. PMID:17376249

Persistence and extinction for a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Zhidong; Wang, Lei

2016-06-01

In this paper, a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. It is shown that the extinction and persistence of the disease in probability are determined by a threshold value R˜0. That is, if R˜0 < 1 and an additional condition holds then disease dies out, and if R˜0 > 1 then disease is weak permanent with probability one. To obtain the permanence in the mean of the disease, a new quantity R̂0 is introduced, and it is proved that if R̂0 > 1 the disease is permanent in the mean with probability one. Furthermore, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate some open problems given in Remarks 1-3 and 5 of this paper.

The Influence of Agroforestry and Other Land-Use Types on the Persistence of a Sumatran Tiger ( Panthera tigris sumatrae) Population: An Individual-Based Model Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Herzog, Sven; Berger, Uta

2011-08-01

The importance of preserving both protected areas and their surrounding landscapes as one of the major conservation strategies for tigers has received attention over recent decades. However, the mechanism of how land-use surrounding protected areas affects the dynamics of tiger populations is poorly understood. We developed Panthera Population Persistence (PPP)—an individual-based model—to investigate the potential mechanism of the Sumatran tiger population dynamics in a protected area and under different land-use scenarios surrounding the reserve. We tested three main landscape compositions (single, combined and real land-uses of Tesso-Nilo National Park and its surrounding area) on the probability of and time to extinction of the Sumatran tiger over 20 years in Central Sumatra. The model successfully explains the mechanisms behind the population response of tigers under different habitat landscape compositions. Feeding and mating behaviours of tigers are key factors, which determined population persistence in a heterogeneous landscape. All single land-use scenarios resulted in tiger extinction but had a different probability of extinction within 20 years. If tropical forest was combined with other land-use types, the probability of extinction was smaller. The presence of agroforesty and logging concessions adjacent to protected areas encouraged the survival of tiger populations. However, with the real land-use scenario of Tesso-Nilo National Park, tigers could not survive for more than 10 years. Promoting the practice of agroforestry systems surrounding the park is probably the most reasonable way to steer land-use surrounding the Tesso-Nilo National Park to support tiger conservation.

Examining the Extinction of the Barbary Lion and Its Implications for Felid Conservation

PubMed Central

Black, Simon A.; Fellous, Amina; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Roberts, David L.

2013-01-01

Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa. PMID:23573239

Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

PubMed

Black, Simon A; Fellous, Amina; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Roberts, David L

2013-01-01

Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

Enhanced THz extinction in arrays of resonant semiconductor particles.

PubMed

Schaafsma, Martijn C; Georgiou, Giorgos; Rivas, Jaime Gómez

2015-09-21

We demonstrate experimentally the enhanced THz extinction by periodic arrays of resonant semiconductor particles. This phenomenon is explained in terms of the radiative coupling of localized resonances with diffractive orders in the plane of the array (Rayleigh anomalies). The experimental results are described by numerical calculations using a coupled dipole model and by Finite-Difference in Time-Domain simulations. An optimum particle size for enhancing the extinction efficiency of the array is found. This optimum is determined by the frequency detuning between the localized resonances in the individual particles and the Rayleigh anomaly. The extinction calculations and measurements are also compared to near-field simulations illustrating the optimum particle size for the enhancement of the near-field.

Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control.

PubMed

Ferrari, M J; Grenfell, B T; Strebel, P M

2013-08-05

The global reduction of the burden of morbidity and mortality owing to measles has been a major triumph of public health. However, the continued persistence of measles infection probably not only reflects local variation in progress towards vaccination target goals, but may also reflect local variation in dynamic processes of transmission, susceptible replenishment through births and stochastic local extinction. Dynamic models predict that vaccination should increase the mean age of infection and increase inter-annual variability in incidence. Through a comparative approach, we assess national-level patterns in the mean age of infection and measles persistence. We find that while the classic predictions do hold in general, the impact of vaccination on the age distribution of cases and stochastic fadeout are mediated by local birth rate. Thus, broad-scale vaccine coverage goals are unlikely to have the same impact on the interruption of measles transmission in all demographic settings. Indeed, these results suggest that the achievement of further measles reduction or elimination goals is likely to require programmatic and vaccine coverage goals that are tailored to local demographic conditions.

Is extinction age dependent?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, N.A.; Arnold, A.J.; Parker, W.C.; Huffer, F.W.

2006-01-01

Age-dependent extinction is an observation with important biological implications. Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis triggered three decades of research testing its primary implication: that age is independent of extinction. In contrast to this, later studies with species-level data have indicated the possible presence of age dependence. Since the formulation of the Red Queen hypothesis, more powerful tests of survivorship models have been developed. This is the first report of the application of the Cox Proportional Hazards model to paleontological data. Planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies allow the taxonomic and precise stratigraphic resolution necessary for the Cox model. As a whole, planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies clearly show age-dependent extinction. In particular, the effect is attributable to the presence of shorter-ranged species (range < 4 myr) following extinction events. These shorter-ranged species also possess tests with unique morphological architecture. The morphological differences are probably epiphenomena of underlying developmental and heterochronic processes of shorter-ranged species that survived various extinction events. Extinction survivors carry developmental and morphological characteristics into postextinction recovery times, and this sets them apart from species populations established independently of extinction events. Copyright ?? 2006, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Food web structure and the evolution of ecological communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quince, Christopher; Higgs, Paul G.; McKane, Alan J.

Simulations of the coevolution of many interacting species are performed using the Webworld model. The model has a realistic set of predator-prey equations that describe the population dynamics of the species for any structure of the food web. The equations account for competition between species for the same resources, and for the diet choice of predators between alternative prey according to an evolutionarily stable strategy. The set of species present undergoes long-term evolution d ue to speciation and extinction events. We summarize results obtained on the macro-evolutionary dynamics of speciations and extinctions, and on the statistical properties of the food webs that are generated by the model. Simulations begin from small numbers of species and build up to larger webs with relatively constant species number on average. The rate of origination and extinction of species are relatively high, but remain roughly balanced throughout the simulations. When a 'parent' species undergoes sp eciation, the 'child' species usually adds to the same trophic level as the parent. The chance of the child species surviving is significantly higher if the parent is on the second or third trophic level than if it is on the first level, most likely due to a wider choice of possible prey for species on higher levels. Addition of a new species sometimes causes extinction of existing species. The parent species has a high probability of extinction because it has strong competition with the new species. Non-pa rental competitors of the new species also have a significantly higher extinction probability than average, as do prey of the new species. Predators of the new species are less likely than average to become extinct.

A stochastic model for transmission, extinction and outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as affected by ambient temperature and cleaning practices.

PubMed

Wang, Xueying; Gautam, Raju; Pinedo, Pablo J; Allen, Linda J S; Ivanek, Renata

2014-08-01

Many infectious agents transmitting through a contaminated environment are able to persist in the environment depending on the temperature and sanitation determined rates of their replication and clearance, respectively. There is a need to elucidate the effect of these factors on the infection transmission dynamics in terms of infection outbreaks and extinction while accounting for the random nature of the process. Also, it is important to distinguish between the true and apparent extinction, where the former means pathogen extinction in both the host and the environment while the latter means extinction only in the host population. This study proposes a stochastic-differential equation model as an approximation to a Markov jump process model, using Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as a model system. In the model, the host population infection dynamics are described using the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible framework, and the E. coli O157:H7 population in the environment is represented by an additional variable. The backward Kolmogorov equations that determine the probability distribution and the expectation of the first passage time are provided in a general setting. The outbreak and apparent extinction of infection are investigated by numerically solving the Kolmogorov equations for the probability density function of the associated process and the expectation of the associated stopping time. The results provide insight into E. coli O157:H7 transmission and apparent extinction, and suggest ways for controlling the spread of infection in a cattle herd. Specifically, this study highlights the importance of ambient temperature and sanitation, especially during summer.

A Statistical Test of Correlations and Periodicities in the Geological Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yabushita, S.

1997-09-01

Matsumoto & Kubotani argued that there is a positive and statistically significant correlation between cratering and mass extinction. This argument is critically examined by adopting a method of Ertel used by Matsumoto & Kubotani but by applying it more directly to the extinction and cratering records. It is shown that on the null-hypothesis of random distribution of crater ages, the observed correlation has a probability of occurrence of 13%. However, when large craters are excluded whose ages agree with the times of peaks of extinction rate of marine fauna, one obtains a negative correlation. This result strongly indicates that mass extinction are not due to accumulation of impacts but due to isolated gigantic impacts.

Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade.

PubMed

Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J R; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C Darrin

2013-01-01

Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments.

Extinction probabilities and stationary distributions of mobile genetic elements in prokaryotes: The birth-death-diversification model.

PubMed

Drakos, Nicole E; Wahl, Lindi M

2015-12-01

Theoretical approaches are essential to our understanding of the complex dynamics of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) within genomes. Recently, the birth-death-diversification model was developed to describe the dynamics of mobile promoters (MPs), a particular class of MGEs in prokaryotes. A unique feature of this model is that genetic diversification of elements was included. To explore the implications of diversification on the longterm fate of MGE lineages, in this contribution we analyze the extinction probabilities, extinction times and equilibrium solutions of the birth-death-diversification model. We find that diversification increases both the survival and growth rate of MGE families, but the strength of this effect depends on the rate of horizontal gene transfer (HGT). We also find that the distribution of MGE families per genome is not necessarily monotonically decreasing, as observed for MPs, but may have a peak in the distribution that is related to the HGT rate. For MPs specifically, we find that new families have a high extinction probability, and predict that the number of MPs is increasing, albeit at a very slow rate. Additionally, we develop an extension of the birth-death-diversification model which allows MGEs in different regions of the genome, for example coding and non-coding, to be described by different rates. This extension may offer a potential explanation as to why the majority of MPs are located in non-promoter regions of the genome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-classical phase diagram for virus bacterial coevolution mediated by clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats.

PubMed

Han, Pu; Deem, Michael W

2017-02-01

CRISPR is a newly discovered prokaryotic immune system. Bacteria and archaea with this system incorporate genetic material from invading viruses into their genomes, providing protection against future infection by similar viruses. The condition for coexistence of prokaryots and viruses is an interesting problem in evolutionary biology. In this work, we show an intriguing phase diagram of the virus extinction probability, which is more complex than that of the classical predator-prey model. As the CRISPR incorporates genetic material, viruses are under pressure to evolve to escape recognition by CRISPR. When bacteria have a small rate of deleting spacers, a new parameter region in which bacteria and viruses can coexist arises, and it leads to a more complex coexistence patten for bacteria and viruses. For example, when the virus mutation rate is low, the virus extinction probability changes non-montonically with the bacterial exposure rate. The virus and bacteria coevolution not only alters the virus extinction probability, but also changes the bacterial population structure. Additionally, we show that recombination is a successful strategy for viruses to escape from CRISPR recognition when viruses have multiple proto-spacers, providing support for a recombination-mediated escape mechanism suggested experimentally. Finally, we suggest that the re-entrant phase diagram, in which phages can progress through three phases of extinction and two phases of abundance at low spacer deletion rates as a function of exposure rate to bacteria, is an experimentally testable phenomenon. © 2017 The Author(s).

Two hundred years of local avian extinctions in eastern Amazonia.

PubMed

Moura, Nárgila G; Lees, Alexander C; Aleixo, Alexandre; Barlow, Jos; Dantas, Sidnei M; Ferreira, Joice; Lima, Maria de Fátima C; Gardner, Toby A

2014-10-01

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long-term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km(2) eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large-bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well-forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Estimating the probability of an extinction or major outbreak for an environmentally transmitted infectious disease.

PubMed

Lahodny, G E; Gautam, R; Ivanek, R

2015-01-01

Indirect transmission through the environment, pathogen shedding by infectious hosts, replication of free-living pathogens within the environment, and environmental decontamination are suspected to play important roles in the spread and control of environmentally transmitted infectious diseases. To account for these factors, the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible epidemic model is modified to include a compartment representing the amount of free-living pathogen within the environment. The model accounts for host demography, direct and indirect transmission, replication of free-living pathogens in the environment, and removal of free-living pathogens by natural death or environmental decontamination. Based on the assumptions of the deterministic model, a continuous-time Markov chain model is developed. An estimate for the probability of disease extinction or a major outbreak is obtained by approximating the Markov chain with a multitype branching process. Numerical simulations illustrate important differences between the deterministic and stochastic counterparts, relevant for outbreak prevention, that depend on indirect transmission, pathogen shedding by infectious hosts, replication of free-living pathogens, and environmental decontamination. The probability of a major outbreak is computed for salmonellosis in a herd of dairy cattle as well as cholera in a human population. An explicit expression for the probability of disease extinction or a major outbreak in terms of the model parameters is obtained for systems with no direct transmission or replication of free-living pathogens.

Multiseason occupancy models for correlated replicate surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, James; Nichols, James D.; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

Occupancy surveys collecting data from adjacent (sometimes correlated) spatial replicates have become relatively popular for logistical reasons. Hines et al. (2010) presented one approach to modelling such data for single-season occupancy surveys. Here, we present a multiseason analogue of this model (with corresponding software) for inferences about occupancy dynamics. We include a new parameter to deal with the uncertainty associated with the first spatial replicate for both single-season and multiseason models. We use a case study, based on the brown-headed nuthatch, to assess the need for these models when analysing data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and we test various hypotheses about occupancy dynamics for this species in the south-eastern United States. The new model permits inference about local probabilities of extinction, colonization and occupancy for sampling conducted over multiple seasons. The model performs adequately, based on a small simulation study and on results of the case study analysis. The new model incorporating correlated replicates was strongly favoured by model selection for the BBS data for brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla). Latitude was found to be an important source of variation in local colonization and occupancy probabilities for brown-headed nuthatch, with both probabilities being higher near the centre of the species range, as opposed to more northern and southern areas. We recommend this new occupancy model for detection–nondetection studies that use potentially correlated replicates.

Twenty-five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: nonclimatic factors of change.

PubMed

Péron, Guillaume; Altwegg, Res

2015-09-01

We analysed more than 25 years of change in passerine bird distribution in South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, to show that species distributions can be influenced by processes that are at least in part independent of the local strength and direction of climate change: land use and ecological succession. We used occupancy models that separate species' detection from species' occupancy probability, fitted to citizen science data from both phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (1987-1996 and 2007-2013). Temporal trends in species' occupancy probability were interpreted in terms of local extinction/colonization, and temporal trends in detection probability were interpreted in terms of change in abundance. We found for the first time at this scale that, as predicted in the context of bush encroachment, closed-savannah specialists increased where open-savannah specialists decreased. In addition, the trend in the abundance of species a priori thought to be favoured by agricultural conversion was negatively correlated with human population density, which is in line with hypotheses explaining the decline in farmland birds in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to climate, vegetation cover and the intensity and time since agricultural conversion constitute important predictors of biodiversity changes in the region. Their inclusion will improve the reliability of predictive models of species distribution. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dietary Specialization during the Evolution of Western Eurasian Hominoids and the Extinction of European Great Apes

PubMed Central

DeMiguel, Daniel; Alba, David M.; Moyà-Solà, Salvador

2014-01-01

Given the central adaptive role of diet, paleodietary inference is essential for understanding the relationship between evolutionary and paleoenvironmental change. Here we rely on dental microwear analysis to investigate the role of dietary specialization in the diversification and extinction of Miocene hominoids from Western Eurasian between 14 and 7 Ma. New microwear results for five extinct taxa are analyzed together with previous data for other Western Eurasian genera. Except Pierolapithecus (that resembles hard-object feeders) and Oreopithecus (a soft-frugivore probably foraging opportunistically on other foods), most of the extinct taxa lack clear extant dietary analogues. They display some degee of sclerocarpy, which is most clearly expressed in Griphopithecus and Ouranopithecus (adapted to more open and arid environments), whereas Anoiapithecus, Dryopithecus and, especially, Hispanopithecus species apparently relied more strongly on soft-frugivory. Thus, contrasting with the prevailing sclerocarpic condition at the beginning of the Eurasian hominoid radiation, soft- and mixed-frugivory coexisted with hard-object feeding in the Late Miocene. Therefore, despite a climatic trend towards cooling and increased seasonality, a progressive dietary diversification would have occurred (probably due to competitive exclusion and increased environmental heterogeneity), although strict folivory did not evolve. Overall, our analyses support the view that the same dietary specializations that enabled Western Eurasian hominoids to face progressive climatic deterioration were the main factor ultimately leading to their extinction when more drastic paleoenvironmental changes took place. PMID:24848272

Demographic consequences of terrestrial habitat loss for pool-breeding amphibians: predicting extinction risks associated with inadequate size of buffer zones.

PubMed

Harper, Elizabeth B; Rittenhouse, Tracy A G; Semlitsch, Raymond D

2008-10-01

Much of the biodiversity associated with isolated wetlands requires aquatic and terrestrial habitat to maintain viable populations. Current federal wetland regulations in the United States do not protect isolated wetlands or extend protection to surrounding terrestrial habitat. Consequently, some land managers, city planners, and policy makers at the state and local levels are making an effort to protect these wetland and neighboring upland habitats. Balancing human land-use and habitat conservation is challenging, and well-informed land-use policy is hindered by a lack of knowledge of the specific risks of varying amounts of habitat loss. Using projections of wood frog (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) populations, we related the amount of high-quality terrestrial habitat surrounding isolated wetlands to the decline and risk of extinction of local amphibian populations. These simulations showed that current state-level wetland regulations protecting 30 m or less of surrounding terrestrial habitat are inadequate to support viable populations of pool-breeding amphibians. We also found that species with different life-history strategies responded differently to the loss and degradation of terrestrial habitat. The wood frog, with a short life span and high fecundity, was most sensitive to habitat loss and isolation, whereas the longer-lived spotted salamander with lower fecundity was most sensitive to habitat degradation that lowered adult survival rates. Our model results demonstrate that a high probability of local amphibian population persistence requires sufficient terrestrial habitat, the maintenance of habitat quality, and connectivity among local populations. Our results emphasize the essential role of adequate terrestrial habitat to the maintenance of wetland biodiversity and ecosystem function and offer a means of quantifying the risks associated with terrestrial habitat loss and degradation.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

PubMed Central

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron MacNeil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Öhman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-01-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. PMID:21320260

Late Frasnian mass extinction: Conodont event stratigraphy, global changes, and possible causes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandberg, Charles A.; Ziegler, Willi; Dreesen, Roland; Butler, Jamie L.

1988-01-01

Several abrupt changes in conodont biofacies are documented to occur synchronously at six primary control sections across the Frasnian-Famennian boundary in Euramerica. These changes occurred within a time-span of only about 100,000 years near the end of the latest Frasnian linguiformis Zone, which is formally named to replace the Uppermost gigas Zone. The conodont-biofacies changes are interpreted to reflect a eustatic rise followed by an abrupt eustatic fall immediately preceding the late Frasnian mass extinction. Two new conodont species are named and described. Ancyrognathus ubiquitus n.sp. is recorded only just below and above the level of late Frasnian extinction and hence is a global marker for that event. Palmatolepispraetriangularis n.sp. is the long-sought Frasnian ancestor of the formerly cryptogenic species, Pa. triangularis, indicator of the earliest Famennian Lower triangularis Zone. The actual extinction event occurred entirely within the Frasnian and is interpreted to have been of brief duration-from as long as 20,000 years to as short as several days. The eustatic rise-and-fall couplet associated with the late Frasnian mass extinction is similar to eustatic couplets associated with the demise of most Frasnian (F2h) reefs worldwide about 1 m.y. earlier and with a latest Famennian mass extinction about 9.5 m.y. later. All these events may be directly or indirectly attributable to extraterrestrial triggering mechanisms. An impact of a small bolide or a near miss of a larger bolide may have caused the earlier demise of Frasnian reefs. An impact of possibly the same larger bolide in the Southern Hemisphere would explain the late Frasnian mass extinction. Global regression during the Famennian probably resulted from Southern-Hemisphere glaciation triggered by the latest Frasnian impact. Glaciation probably was the indirect cause of the latest Famennian mass extinction.

Competition between global and local online social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleineberg, Kaj-Kolja; Boguñá, Marián

2016-04-01

The overwhelming success of online social networks, the key actors in the Web 2.0 cosmos, has reshaped human interactions globally. To help understand the fundamental mechanisms which determine the fate of online social networks at the system level, we describe the digital world as a complex ecosystem of interacting networks. In this paper, we study the impact of heterogeneity in network fitnesses on the competition between an international network, such as Facebook, and local services. The higher fitness of international networks is induced by their ability to attract users from all over the world, which can then establish social interactions without the limitations of local networks. In other words, inter-country social ties lead to increased fitness of the international network. To study the competition between an international network and local ones, we construct a 1:1000 scale model of the digital world, consisting of the 80 countries with the most Internet users. Under certain conditions, this leads to the extinction of local networks; whereas under different conditions, local networks can persist and even dominate completely. In particular, our model suggests that, with the parameters that best reproduce the empirical overtake of Facebook, this overtake could have not taken place with a significant probability.

Competition between global and local online social networks.

PubMed

Kleineberg, Kaj-Kolja; Boguñá, Marián

2016-04-27

The overwhelming success of online social networks, the key actors in the Web 2.0 cosmos, has reshaped human interactions globally. To help understand the fundamental mechanisms which determine the fate of online social networks at the system level, we describe the digital world as a complex ecosystem of interacting networks. In this paper, we study the impact of heterogeneity in network fitnesses on the competition between an international network, such as Facebook, and local services. The higher fitness of international networks is induced by their ability to attract users from all over the world, which can then establish social interactions without the limitations of local networks. In other words, inter-country social ties lead to increased fitness of the international network. To study the competition between an international network and local ones, we construct a 1:1000 scale model of the digital world, consisting of the 80 countries with the most Internet users. Under certain conditions, this leads to the extinction of local networks; whereas under different conditions, local networks can persist and even dominate completely. In particular, our model suggests that, with the parameters that best reproduce the empirical overtake of Facebook, this overtake could have not taken place with a significant probability.

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed Central

Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed

Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

2013-01-07

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Kuussaari, Mikko; Bommarco, Riccardo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Helm, Aveliina; Krauss, Jochen; Lindborg, Regina; Ockinger, Erik; Pärtel, Meelis; Pino, Joan; Rodà, Ferran; Stefanescu, Constantí; Teder, Tiit; Zobel, Martin; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

2009-10-01

Local extinction of species can occur with a substantial delay following habitat loss or degradation. Accumulating evidence suggests that such extinction debts pose a significant but often unrecognized challenge for biodiversity conservation across a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Species with long generation times and populations near their extinction threshold are most likely to have an extinction debt. However, as long as a species that is predicted to become extinct still persists, there is time for conservation measures such as habitat restoration and landscape management. Standardized long-term monitoring, more high-quality empirical studies on different taxa and ecosystems and further development of analytical methods will help to better quantify extinction debt and protect biodiversity.

Burst wait time simulation of CALIBAN reactor at delayed super-critical state

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Humbert, P.; Authier, N.; Richard, B.

2012-07-01

In the past, the super prompt critical wait time probability distribution was measured on CALIBAN fast burst reactor [4]. Afterwards, these experiments were simulated with a very good agreement by solving the non-extinction probability equation [5]. Recently, the burst wait time probability distribution has been measured at CEA-Valduc on CALIBAN at different delayed super-critical states [6]. However, in the delayed super-critical case the non-extinction probability does not give access to the wait time distribution. In this case it is necessary to compute the time dependent evolution of the full neutron count number probability distribution. In this paper we present themore » point model deterministic method used to calculate the probability distribution of the wait time before a prescribed count level taking into account prompt neutrons and delayed neutron precursors. This method is based on the solution of the time dependent adjoint Kolmogorov master equations for the number of detections using the generating function methodology [8,9,10] and inverse discrete Fourier transforms. The obtained results are then compared to the measurements and Monte-Carlo calculations based on the algorithm presented in [7]. (authors)« less

NMDA receptors in the avian amygdala and the premotor arcopallium mediate distinct aspects of appetitive extinction learning.

PubMed

Gao, Meng; Lengersdorf, Daniel; Stüttgen, Maik C; Güntürkün, Onur

2018-05-02

Extinction learning is an essential mechanism that enables constant adaptation to ever-changing environmental conditions. The underlying neural circuit is mostly studied with rodent models using auditory cued fear conditioning. In order to uncover the variant and the invariant neural properties of extinction learning, we adopted pigeons as an animal model in an appetitive sign-tracking paradigm. The animals firstly learned to respond to two conditioned stimuli in two different contexts (CS-1 in context A and CS-2 in context B), before conditioned responses to the stimuli were extinguished in the opposite contexts (CS-1 in context B and CS-2 in context A). Subsequently, responding to both stimuli was tested in both contexts. Prior to extinction training, we locally injected the N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) antagonist 2-Amino-5-phosphonovaleric acid (APV) in either the amygdala or the (pre)motor arcopallium to investigate their involvement in extinction learning. Our findings suggest that the encoding of extinction memory required the activation of amygdala, as visible by an impairment of extinction acquisition by concurrent inactivation of local NMDARs. In contrast, consolidation and subsequent retrieval of extinction memory recruited the (pre)motor arcopallium. Also, the inactivation of arcopallial NMDARs induced a general motoric slowing during extinction training. Thus, our results reveal a double dissociation between arcopallium and amygdala with respect to acquisition and consolidation of extinction, respectively. Our study therefore provides new insights on the two key components of the avian extinction network and their resemblance to the data obtained from mammals, possibly indicating a shared neural mechanism underlying extinction learning shaped by evolution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contrasting effects of climate change in continental vs. oceanic environments on population persistence and microevolution of Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Piou, Cyril; Prévost, Etienne

2013-03-01

Facing climate change (CC), species are prone to multiple modifications in their environment that can lead to extinction, migration or adaptation. Identifying the role and interplay of different potential stressors becomes a key question. Anadromous fishes will be exposed to both river and oceanic habitat changes. For Atlantic salmon, the river water temperature, river flow and oceanic growth conditions appear as three main stressing factors. They could act on population dynamics or as selective forces on life-history pathways. Using an individual-based demo-genetic model, we assessed the effects of these factors (1) to compare risks of extinction resulting from CC in river and ocean, and (2) to assess CC effects on life-history pathways including the evolution of underlying genetic control of phenotypic plasticity. We focused on Atlantic salmon populations from Southern Europe for a time horizon of three decades. We showed that CC in river alone should not lead to extinction of Southern European salmon populations. In contrast, the reduced oceanic growth appeared as a significant threat for population persistence. An increase in river flow amplitude increased the risk of local extinction in synergy with the oceanic effects, but river temperature rise reduced this risk. In terms of life-history modifications, the reduced oceanic growth increased the age of return of individuals through plastic and genetic responses. The river temperature rise increased the proportion of sexually mature parr, but the genetic evolution of the maturation threshold lowered the maturation rate of male parr. This was identified as a case of environmentally driven plastic response that masked an underlying evolutionary response of plasticity going in the opposite direction. We concluded that to counteract oceanic effects, river flow management represented the sole potential force to reduce the extinction probability of Atlantic salmon populations in Southern Europe, although this might not impede changes in migration life history. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Detecting fragmentation extinction thresholds for forest understory plant species in peninsular Spain.

PubMed

Rueda, Marta; Moreno Saiz, Juan Carlos; Morales-Castilla, Ignacio; Albuquerque, Fabio S; Ferrero, Mila; Rodríguez, Miguel Á

2015-01-01

Ecological theory predicts that fragmentation aggravates the effects of habitat loss, yet empirical results show mixed evidences, which fail to support the theory instead reinforcing the primary importance of habitat loss. Fragmentation hypotheses have received much attention due to their potential implications for biodiversity conservation, however, animal studies have traditionally been their main focus. Here we assess variation in species sensitivity to forest amount and fragmentation and evaluate if fragmentation is related to extinction thresholds in forest understory herbs and ferns. Our expectation was that forest herbs would be more sensitive to fragmentation than ferns due to their lower dispersal capabilities. Using forest cover percentage and the proportion of this percentage occurring in the largest patch within UTM cells of 10-km resolution covering Peninsular Spain, we partitioned the effects of forest amount versus fragmentation and applied logistic regression to model occurrences of 16 species. For nine models showing robustness according to a set of quality criteria we subsequently defined two empirical fragmentation scenarios, minimum and maximum, and quantified species' sensitivity to forest contraction with no fragmentation, and to fragmentation under constant forest cover. We finally assessed how the extinction threshold of each species (the habitat amount below which it cannot persist) varies under no and maximum fragmentation. Consistent with their preference for forest habitats probability occurrences of all species decreased as forest cover contracted. On average, herbs did not show significant sensitivity to fragmentation whereas ferns were favored. In line with theory, fragmentation yielded higher extinction thresholds for two species. For the remaining species, fragmentation had either positive or non-significant effects. We interpret these differences as reflecting species-specific traits and conclude that although forest amount is of primary importance for the persistence of understory plants, to neglect the impact of fragmentation for some species can lead them to local extinction.

Managed relocation as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change threats to the persistence of an endangered lizard.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Watts, Michael J; Delean, Steven; Brook, Brook W; Heard, Lee M B; Bull, C M

2012-09-01

The distributional ranges of many species are contracting with habitat conversion and climate change. For vertebrates, informed strategies for translocations are an essential option for decisions about their conservation management. The pygmy bluetongue lizard, Tiliqua adelaidensis, is an endangered reptile with a highly restricted distribution, known from only a small number of natural grassland fragments in South Australia. Land-use changes over the last century have converted perennial native grasslands into croplands, pastures and urban areas, causing substantial contraction of the species' range due to loss of essential habitat. Indeed, the species was thought to be extinct until its rediscovery in 1992. We develop coupled-models that link habitat suitability with stochastic demographic processes to estimate extinction risk and to explore the efficacy of potential climate adaptation options. These coupled-models offer improvements over simple bioclimatic envelope models for estimating the impacts of climate change on persistence probability. Applying this coupled-model approach to T. adelaidensis, we show that: (i) climate-driven changes will adversely impact the expected minimum abundance of populations and could cause extinction without management intervention, (ii) adding artificial burrows might enhance local population density, however, without targeted translocations this measure has a limited effect on extinction risk, (iii) managed relocations are critical for safeguarding lizard population persistence, as a sole or joint action and (iv) where to source and where to relocate animals in a program of translocations depends on the velocity, extent and nonlinearities in rates of climate-induced habitat change. These results underscore the need to consider managed relocations as part of any multifaceted plan to compensate the effects of habitat loss or shifting environmental conditions on species with low dispersal capacity. More broadly, we provide the first step towards a more comprehensive framework for integrating extinction risk, managed relocations and climate change information into range-wide conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity

PubMed Central

Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

2017-01-01

In the decades to come, advanced bioweapons could threaten human existence. Although the probability of human extinction from bioweapons may be low, the expected value of reducing the risk could still be large, since such risks jeopardize the existence of all future generations. We provide an overview of biotechnological extinction risk, make some rough initial estimates for how severe the risks might be, and compare the cost-effectiveness of reducing these extinction-level risks with existing biosecurity work. We find that reducing human extinction risk can be more cost-effective than reducing smaller-scale risks, even when using conservative estimates. This suggests that the risks are not low enough to ignore and that more ought to be done to prevent the worst-case scenarios. PMID:28806130

Reintroduction of locally extinct vertebrates impacts arid soil fungal communities.

PubMed

Clarke, Laurence J; Weyrich, Laura S; Cooper, Alan

2015-06-01

Introduced species have contributed to extinction of native vertebrates in many parts of the world. Changes to vertebrate assemblages are also likely to alter microbial communities through coextinction of some taxa and the introduction of others. Many attempts to restore degraded habitats involve removal of exotic vertebrates (livestock and feral animals) and reintroduction of locally extinct species, but the impact of such reintroductions on microbial communities is largely unknown. We used high-throughput DNA sequencing of the fungal internal transcribed spacer I (ITS1) region to examine whether replacing exotic vertebrates with reintroduced native vertebrates led to changes in soil fungal communities at a reserve in arid central Australia. Soil fungal diversity was significantly different between dune and swale (interdune) habitats. Fungal communities also differed significantly between sites with exotic or reintroduced native vertebrates after controlling for the effect of habitat. Several fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) found exclusively inside the reserve were present in scats from reintroduced native vertebrates, providing a direct link between the vertebrate assemblage and soil microbial communities. Our results show that changes to vertebrate assemblages through local extinctions and the invasion of exotic species can alter soil fungal communities. If local extinction of one or several species results in the coextinction of microbial taxa, the full complement of ecological interactions may never be restored. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Three-Dimensional Direct Numerical Simulation of Methane-Air Turbulent Premixed Flames with Reduced Kinetic Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanahashi, Mamoru; Kikuta, Satoshi; Miyauchi, Toshio

2004-11-01

Three-dimensional DNS of methane-air turbulent premixed flames have been conducted to investigate local extinction mechanism of turbulent premixed flames. A reduced kinetic mechanism (MeCH-19), which is created from GRI-Mech. 2.11 and includes 23 reactive species and 19 step reactions, are used to simulate CH_4-O_2-N2 reaction in turbulence. The effectiveness of this reduced kinetic mechanism has been conformed by preliminary two-dimensional DNS with the reduced kinetic mechanism and two detailed kinetic mechanisms; GRI-Mech. 2.11 and Miller & Bowman. Flame structures of methane-air turbulent premixed flames are compared with those of hydrogen-air turbulent premixed flames which have been obtained by 3D-DNS with a detailed kinetic mechanism in our previous study. Local extinctions occur in methane-air turbulent premixed flames, whereas no extinction is observed for hydrogen-air flames in nearly same turbulence condition. The local extinction mechanism is discussed based on eddy/flame interaction in small scales.

Nile damming as plausible cause of extinction and drop in abundance of deep-sea shrimp in the western Mediterranean over broad spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartes, J. E.; Maynou, F.; Fanelli, E.

2011-11-01

Greatly increased retention of flow in Nile River reservoirs was initiated in 1964, after completion of the Aswan High Dam, which induced important oceanographic changes in the Mediterranean Sea, including deep waters (below a depth of 150 m). Based on an analysis of data series starting in the 1940s/1950s, the giant red shrimp Aristaeomorpha foliacea has become locally extinct off of the Catalonian coasts (and elsewhere in the northwestern Mediterranean) at depths of 400-900 m, with a simultaneous and significant drop in the catches of red shrimp, Aristeus antennatus, in the second half of the 1960s. The extinction and sharp decline of deep-shrimp populations off Catalonian coast (at ca. 3200 km westwards from Nile Delta) followed the 1964 drop in Nile discharge with a delay of ca. 3-5 yrs (breakpoint analysis applied to data series). The breakpoints detected in the second half of 1960s both in Nile runoff and shrimps’ abundance were independent of climatic events in the study area (e.g. changes in NAO) and occurred before the increase in fishing effort off Catalonian coasts (breakpoint in 1973-1974). The Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW), inhabited by A. foliacea in the western Basin, had significant temperature (T) and salinity (S) increases in the 1950-1970 period, and Nile damming has contributed about 45% of the total S increase of Western Mediterranean deep-water masses from the 1960s to the late 1990s (Skliris and Lascaratos, 2004). This had to increase, for instance, LIW salinity at its formation site in the eastern Mediterranean. Nile damming was probably a triggering factor for the extinction/drop in abundance of deep-sea shrimp off Catalonian coasts.

A general framework for predicting delayed responses of ecological communities to habitat loss.

PubMed

Chen, Youhua; Shen, Tsung-Jen

2017-04-20

Although biodiversity crisis at different spatial scales has been well recognised, the phenomena of extinction debt and immigration credit at a crossing-scale context are, at best, unclear. Based on two community patterns, regional species abundance distribution (SAD) and spatial abundance distribution (SAAD), Kitzes and Harte (2015) presented a macroecological framework for predicting post-disturbance delayed extinction patterns in the entire ecological community. In this study, we further expand this basic framework to predict diverse time-lagged effects of habitat destruction on local communities. Specifically, our generalisation of KH's model could address the questions that could not be answered previously: (1) How many species are subjected to delayed extinction in a local community when habitat is destructed in other areas? (2) How do rare or endemic species contribute to extinction debt or immigration credit of the local community? (3) How will species differ between two local areas? From the demonstrations using two SAD models (single-parameter lognormal and logseries), the predicted patterns of the debt, credit, and change in the fraction of unique species can vary, but with consistencies and depending on several factors. The general framework deepens the understanding of the theoretical effects of habitat loss on community dynamic patterns in local samples.

Evidence for local and global redox conditions at an Early Ordovician (Tremadocian) mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Cole T.; Fike, David A.; Saltzman, Matthew R.; Lu, Wanyi; Lu, Zunli

2018-01-01

Profound changes in environmental conditions, particularly atmospheric oxygen levels, are thought to be important drivers of several major biotic events (e.g. mass extinctions and diversifications). The early Paleozoic represents a key interval in the oxygenation of the ocean-atmosphere system and evolution of the biosphere. Global proxies (e.g. carbon (δ13C) and sulfur (δ34S) isotopes) are used to diagnose potential changes in oxygenation and infer causes of environmental change and biotic turnover. The Cambrian-Ordovician contains several trilobite extinctions (some are apparently local, but others are globally correlative) that are attributed to anoxia based on coeval positive δ13C and δ34S excursions. These extinction and excursion events have yet to be coupled with more recently developed proxies thought to be more reflective of local redox conditions in the water column (e.g. I/Ca) to confirm whether these extinctions were associated with oxygen crises over a regional or global scale. Here we examine an Early Ordovician (Tremadocian Stage) extinction event previously interpreted to reflect a continuation of recurrent early Paleozoic anoxic events that expanded into nearshore environments. δ13C, δ34S, and I/Ca trends were measured from three sections in the Great Basin region to test whether I/Ca trends support the notion that anoxia was locally present in the water column along the Laurentian margin. Evidence for anoxia is based on coincident, but not always synchronous, positive δ13C and δ34S excursions (mainly from carbonate-associated sulfate and less so from pyrite data), a 30% extinction of standing generic diversity, and near-zero I/Ca values. Although evidence for local water column anoxia from the I/Ca proxy broadly agrees with intervals of global anoxia inferred from δ13C and δ34S trends, a more complex picture is evident where spatially and temporally variable local trends are superimposed on time-averaged global trends. Stratigraphic sections from the distal and deeper part of the basin (Shingle Pass and Meiklejohn Peak) preserve synchronous global (δ13C and δ34S) and water column (I/Ca) evidence for anoxia, but not at the more proximal section (Ibex, UT). Although geochemical and paleontological evidence point toward anoxia as the driver of this Early Ordovician extinction event, differences between I/Ca and δ13C-δ34S signals suggest regional variation in the timing, extent, and persistence of anoxia.

Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians.

PubMed

Alroy, John

2015-10-20

There is broad concern that a mass extinction of amphibians and reptiles is now underway. Here I apply an extremely conservative Bayesian method to estimate the number of recent amphibian and squamate extinctions in nine important tropical and subtropical regions. The data stem from a combination of museum collection databases and published site surveys. The method computes an extinction probability for each species by considering its sighting frequency and last sighting date. It infers hardly any extinction when collection dates are randomized and it provides underestimates when artificial extinction events are imposed. The method also appears to be insensitive to trends in sampling; therefore, the counts it provides are absolute minimums. Extinctions or severe population crashes have accumulated steadily since the 1970s and 1980s, and at least 3.1% of frog species have already disappeared. Based on these data and this conservative method, the best estimate of the global grand total is roughly 200 extinctions. Consistent with previous results, frog losses are heavy in Latin America, which has been greatly affected by the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Extinction rates are now four orders-of-magnitude higher than background, and at least another 6.9% of all frog species may be lost within the next century, even if there is no acceleration in the growth of environmental threats.

Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians

PubMed Central

Alroy, John

2015-01-01

There is broad concern that a mass extinction of amphibians and reptiles is now underway. Here I apply an extremely conservative Bayesian method to estimate the number of recent amphibian and squamate extinctions in nine important tropical and subtropical regions. The data stem from a combination of museum collection databases and published site surveys. The method computes an extinction probability for each species by considering its sighting frequency and last sighting date. It infers hardly any extinction when collection dates are randomized and it provides underestimates when artificial extinction events are imposed. The method also appears to be insensitive to trends in sampling; therefore, the counts it provides are absolute minimums. Extinctions or severe population crashes have accumulated steadily since the 1970s and 1980s, and at least 3.1% of frog species have already disappeared. Based on these data and this conservative method, the best estimate of the global grand total is roughly 200 extinctions. Consistent with previous results, frog losses are heavy in Latin America, which has been greatly affected by the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Extinction rates are now four orders-of-magnitude higher than background, and at least another 6.9% of all frog species may be lost within the next century, even if there is no acceleration in the growth of environmental threats. PMID:26438855

Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

2001-01-01

With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975-1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These results suggest that landscape structure may influence forest bird communities at regional scales through its effects on the total number of species but also on the temporal rates of change in community composition. Evidence for higher rates of local extinction and turnover in more fragmented landscapes suggests that bird communities function as metapopulations at a regional scale, and points out the importance of colonizations and recolonizations from surrounding landscapes to local community dynamics. Further, our results illustrate that the methods used to estimate the community parameters can be a powerful statistical tool in addressing questions relative to the dynamics of communities.

Elemental conservation units: communicating extinction risk without dictating targets for protection.

PubMed

Wood, Chris C; Gross, Mart R

2008-02-01

Conservation biologists mostly agree on the need to identify and protect biodiversity below the species level but have not yet resolved the best approach. We addressed 2 issues relevant to this debate. First, we distinguished between the abstract goal of preserving the maximum amount of unique biodiversity and the pragmatic goal of minimizing the loss of ecological goods and services given that further loss of biodiversity seems inevitable. Second, we distinguished between the scientific task of assessing extinction risk and the normative task of choosing targets for protection. We propose that scientific advice on extinction risk be given at the smallest meaningful scale: the elemental conservation unit (ECU). An ECU is a demographically isolated population whose probability of extinction over the time scale of interest (say 100 years) is not substantially affected by natural immigration from other populations. Within this time frame, the loss of an ECU would be irreversible without human intervention. Society's decision to protect an ECU ought to reflect human values that have social, economic, and political dimensions. Scientists can best inform this decision by providing advice about the probability that an ECU will be lost and the ecological and evolutionary consequences of that loss in a form that can be integrated into landscape planning. The ECU approach provides maximum flexibility to decision makers and ensures that the scientific task of assessing extinction risk informs, but remains distinct from, the normative social challenge of setting conservation targets.

The tree balance signature of mass extinction is erased by continued evolution in clades of constrained size with trait-dependent speciation

PubMed Central

Yang, Guan-Dong; Agapow, Paul-Michael

2017-01-01

The kind and duration of phylogenetic topological “signatures” left in the wake of macroevolutionary events remain poorly understood. To this end, we examined a broad range of simulated phylogenies generated using trait-biased, heritable speciation probabilities and mass extinction that could be either random or selective on trait value, but also using background extinction and diversity-dependence to constrain clade sizes. In keeping with prior results, random mass extinction increased imbalance of clades that recovered to pre-extinction size, but was a relatively weak effect. Mass extinction that was selective on trait values tended to produce clades of similar or greater balance compared to random extinction or controls. Allowing evolution to continue past the point of clade-size recovery resulted in erosion and eventual erasure of this signal, with all treatments converging on similar values of imbalance, except for very intense extinction regimes targeted at taxa with high speciation rates. Return to a more balanced state with extended post-extinction evolution was also associated with loss of the previous phylogenetic root in most treatments. These results further demonstrate that while a mass extinction event can produce a recognizable phylogenetic signal, its effects become increasingly obscured the further an evolving clade gets from that event, with any sharp imbalance due to unrelated evolutionary factors. PMID:28644846

Visual extinction in relation to visuospatial neglect after right-hemispheric stroke: quantitative assessment and statistical lesion-symptom mapping.

PubMed

Vossel, S; Eschenbeck, P; Weiss, P H; Weidner, R; Saliger, J; Karbe, H; Fink, G R

2011-08-01

Visual neglect and extinction are two common neurological syndromes in patients with right-hemispheric brain damage. Whether and how these two syndromes are associated or share common neural substrates is still a matter of debate. To address these issues, the authors investigated 56 patients with right-hemispheric stroke with a novel diagnostic test to detect extinction and neglect. In this computerised task, subjects had to respond to target stimuli in uni- and bilateral stimulation conditions with detection probabilities being assessed. A cluster-analytical approach identified 18 patients with neglect and 13 patients with extinction. Statistical lesion-symptom mapping analyses with measures for extinction and neglect were performed. Extinction and neglect co-occurred in a subset of patients but were also observed independently from each other, thereby constituting a double dissociation. Lesions within the right inferior parietal cortex were significantly associated with the severity of visual extinction. Visuospatial neglect was related to damage of fronto-parietal brain regions, with parieto-occipital areas affecting line bisection and dorsal fronto-parietal areas affecting cancellation task performance, respectively. Quantifying lesion-induced symptoms with this novel paradigm shows that extinction and neglect are dissociable syndromes in patients with right-hemispheric stroke. Furthermore, extinction and neglect can be related to differential neural substrates, with extinction being related to focal brain damage within the right inferior parietal cortex.

Scattering characteristics of relativistically moving concentrically layered spheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Timothy J.; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh; Breakall, James K.; Bohren, Craig F.

2018-02-01

The energy extinction cross section of a concentrically layered sphere varies with velocity as the Doppler shift moves the spectral content of the incident signal in the sphere's co-moving inertial reference frame toward or away from resonances of the sphere. Computations for hollow gold nanospheres show that the energy extinction cross section is high when the Doppler shift moves the incident signal's spectral content in the co-moving frame near the wavelength of the sphere's localized surface plasmon resonance. The energy extinction cross section of a three-layer sphere consisting of an olivine-silicate core surrounded by a porous and a magnetite layer, which is used to explain extinction caused by interstellar dust, also depends strongly on velocity. For this sphere, computations show that the energy extinction cross section is high when the Doppler shift moves the spectral content of the incident signal near either of olivine-silicate's two localized surface phonon resonances at 9.7 μm and 18 μm.

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

PubMed

Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

2018-04-01

Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to absorb the impacts of temperature increase on tropical ectotherms during climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE PROPERTIES OF THE 2175 A EXTINCTION FEATURE DISCOVERED IN GRB AFTERGLOWS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zafar, Tayyaba; Watson, Darach; Eliasdottir, Ardis

The unequivocal, spectroscopic detection of the 2175 A bump in extinction curves outside the Local Group is rare. To date, the properties of the bump have been examined in only two gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows (GRB 070802 and GRB 080607). In this work, we analyze in detail the detections of the 2175 Angstrom-Sign extinction bump in the optical spectra of two further GRB afterglows: GRB 080605 and 080805. We gather all available optical/near-infrared photometric, spectroscopic, and X-ray data to construct multi-epoch spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for both GRB afterglows. We fit the SEDs with the Fitzpatrick and Massa model withmore » a single or broken power law. We also fit a sample of 38 GRB afterglows, known to prefer a Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC)-type extinction curve, with the same model. We find that the SEDs of GRB 080605 and GRB 080805 at two epochs are fit well with a single power law with a derived extinction of A{sub V} = 0.52{sup +0.13}{sub -0.16} and 0.50{sup +0.13}{sub -0.10}, and 2.1{sup +0.7}{sub -0.6} and 1.5 {+-} 0.2, respectively. While the slope of the extinction curve of GRB 080805 is not well constrained, the extinction curve of GRB 080605 has an unusual very steep far-UV rise together with the 2175 A bump. Such an extinction curve has previously been found in only a small handful of sightlines in the Milky Way. One possible explanation of such an extinction curve may be dust arising from two different regions with two separate grain populations, however we cannot distinguish the origin of the curve. We finally compare the four 2175 A bump sightlines to the larger GRB afterglow sample and to Local Group sightlines. We find that while the width and central positions of the bumps are consistent with what is observed in the Local Group, the relative strength of the detected bump (A{sub bump}) for GRB afterglows is weaker for a given A{sub V} than for almost any Local Group sightline. Such dilution of the bump strength may offer tentative support to a dual dust-population scenario.« less

Trophic redundancy reduces vulnerability to extinction cascades

PubMed Central

Sanders, Dirk; Thébault, Elisa; Kehoe, Rachel; Frank van Veen, F. J.

2018-01-01

Current species extinction rates are at unprecedentedly high levels. While human activities can be the direct cause of some extinctions, it is becoming increasingly clear that species extinctions themselves can be the cause of further extinctions, since species affect each other through the network of ecological interactions among them. There is concern that the simplification of ecosystems, due to the loss of species and ecological interactions, increases their vulnerability to such secondary extinctions. It is predicted that more complex food webs will be less vulnerable to secondary extinctions due to greater trophic redundancy that can buffer against the effects of species loss. Here, we demonstrate in a field experiment with replicated plant-insect communities, that the probability of secondary extinctions is indeed smaller in food webs that include trophic redundancy. Harvesting one species of parasitoid wasp led to secondary extinctions of other, indirectly linked, species at the same trophic level. This effect was markedly stronger in simple communities than for the same species within a more complex food web. We show that this is due to functional redundancy in the more complex food webs and confirm this mechanism with a food web simulation model by highlighting the importance of the presence and strength of trophic links providing redundancy to those links that were lost. Our results demonstrate that biodiversity loss, leading to a reduction in redundant interactions, can increase the vulnerability of ecosystems to secondary extinctions, which, when they occur, can then lead to further simplification and run-away extinction cascades. PMID:29467292

Thermoregulation of two sympatric species of horned lizards in the Chihuahuan Desert and their local extinction risk.

PubMed

Lara-Reséndiz, Rafael A; Gadsden, Héctor; Rosen, Philip C; Sinervo, Barry; Méndez-De la Cruz, Fausto R

2015-02-01

Thermoregulatory studies of ectothermic organisms are an important tool for ecological physiology, evolutionary ecology and behavior, and recently have become central for evaluating and predicting global climate change impacts. Here, we present a novel combination of field, laboratory, and modeling approaches to examine body temperature regulation, habitat thermal quality, and hours of thermal restriction on the activity of two sympatric, aridlands horned lizards (Phrynosoma cornutum and Phrynosoma modestum) at three contrasting Chihuahuan Desert sites in Mexico. Using these physiological data, we estimate local extinction risk under predicted climate change within their current geographical distribution. We followed the Hertz et al. (1993, Am. Nat., 142, 796-818) protocol for evaluating thermoregulation and the Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328, 894-899) eco-physiological model of extinction under climatic warming. Thermoregulatory indices suggest that both species thermoregulate effectively despite living in habitats of low thermal quality, although high environmental temperatures restrict the activity period of both species. Based on our measurements, if air temperature rises as predicted by climate models, the extinction model projects that P. cornutum will become locally extinct at 6% of sites by 2050 and 18% by 2080 and P. modestum will become extinct at 32% of sites by 2050 and 60% by 2080. The method we apply, using widely available or readily acquired thermal data, along with the modeling, appeared to identify several unique ecological traits that seemingly exacerbate climate sensitivity of P. modestum. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randin, C.; Engler, R.; Pearman, P.; Vittoz, P.; Guisan, A.

2007-12-01

Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In this study, we developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, we assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. We also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, we used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, we showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe B1 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. Our study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale.

Mass extinctions: Persistent problems and new directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jablonski, D.

1994-01-01

Few contest that mass extinctions have punctuated the history of life, or that those events were so pervasive environmentally, taxonomically, and geographically that physical forcing factors were probably involved. However, consensus remains elusive on the nature of those factors, and on how a given perturbation - impact, volcanism, sea-level change, or ocean anoxic event - could actually generate the observed intensity and selectivity of biotic losses. At least two basic problems underlie these long-standing disagreements: difficulties in resolving the fine details of taxon ranges and abundances immediately prior to and after an extinction boundary and the scarcity of simple, unitary cause-and-effect relations in complex biological systems.

Species Turnover through Time: Colonization and Extinction Dynamics across Metacommunities.

PubMed

Nuvoloni, Felipe Micali; Feres, Reinaldo José Fazzio; Gilbert, Benjamin

2016-06-01

Island biogeography and metacommunity theory often use equilibrium assumptions to predict local diversity, yet nonequilibrium dynamics are common in nature. In nonequilibrium communities, local diversity fluctuates through time as the relative importance of colonization and extinction change. Here, we test the prevalence and causes of nonequilibrium dynamics in metacommunities of mites associated with rubber trees distributed over large spatial (>1,000 km) and temporal (>30-60 generations) scales in Brazil. We measured colonization and extinction rates to test species turnover and nonequilibrium dynamics over a growing season. Mite metacommunities exhibited nonequilibrium dynamics for most months of the year, and these dynamics tracked climatic conditions. Monthly shifts in temperature of more than 1°C resulted in nonequilibrium dynamics, as did mean temperatures outside of two critical ranges. Nonequilibrium dynamics were caused by a change in colonization with temperature change and changes in both colonization and extinction with absolute temperature. Species turnover showed different trends; high relative humidity increased both colonization and extinction rates, increasing turnover but not nonequilibrium dynamics. Our study illustrates that testing nonequilibrium dynamics can provide new insights into the drivers of colonization, extinction, and diversity fluctuations in metacommunities.

Red List of macrofaunal benthic invertebrates of the Wadden Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, G. H.; Madsen, P. B.; Jensen, K. T.; van Bernem, K. H.; Harms, J.; Heiber, W.; Kröncke, I.; Michaelis, H.; Rachor, E.; Reise, K.; Dekker, R.; Visser, G. J. M.; Wolff, W. J.

1996-10-01

In the Wadden Sea, in total, 93 species of macrofaunal benthic invertebrates are threatened in at least one subregion. Of these, 72 species are threatened in the entire area and are therefore placed on the trilateral Red List. 7 species are (probably) extinct in the entire Wadden Sea area. The status of 9 species of macrofaunal invertebrates is critical, 13 species are (probably) endangered, the status of 25 species is (probably) vulnerable and of 17 species (probably) susceptible.

Occupancy and abundance of Eleutherodactylus frogs in coffee plantations in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Kelen D.; Collazo, Jaime A.; Pacifici, Krishna; Reich, Brian J.; Puente-Rolón, Alberto R.; Terando, Adam J.

2017-01-01

Shaded coffee plantations are of conservation value for many taxa, particularly for resident avifauna in the face of extensive landscape changes. Yet, little is known about the value of coffee plantations for amphibians because there are scant demographic data to index their value among species with different habitat preferences. We estimated the probability of occupancy of three frog species: Eleutherodactylus wightmanae, a forest species; E. brittoni, a grassland species; and E. antillensis, an open habitat species. Occupancy was estimated in sun and shaded plantations, and in secondary forest, in the west-central mountains of Puerto Rico. We also estimated the probability that a survey station was occupied by no individuals, one, or >1 individual, as a proxy of abundance. The aforementioned parameters, and local colonization and extinction probability, were modeled as a function of weather conditions (temperature, humidity) and vegetation cover at the sampling station (5 m) and contextual (100 m) scales. Encounter histories were obtained with passive acoustic recorders between February and July in 2015. Consistent with known habitat preferences, the highest occupancies were associated with secondary forests for E. wightmanae and sun plantations for E. brittoni. Occupancy probability for E. antillensis was similar across habitat types, indicating no aversion to shaded–forested habitats. Shaded plantations harbored moderate levels of occupancy for all species, indicating their potential value for multispecies conservation. Local colonization rates increased with forest cover for E. wightmanae, and with open habitats for E. brittoni and E. antillensis. Open habitats harbored a higher abundance of E. brittoni and E antillensis, but lower values for E. wightmanae. Sun and shaded plantations could provide quality habitat for Eleutherodactylus spp. if managed for features that promote local colonization and abundance.

Evolution of local facilitation in arid ecosystems.

PubMed

Kéfi, Sonia; van Baalen, Minus; Rietkerk, Max; Loreau, Michel

2008-07-01

In harsh environments, sessile organisms can make their habitat more hospitable by buffering environmental stress or increasing resource availability. Although the ecological significance of such local facilitation is widely established, the evolutionary aspects have been seldom investigated. Yet addressing the evolutionary aspects of local facilitation is important because theoretical studies show that systems with such positive interactions can exhibit alternative stable states and that such systems may suddenly become extinct when they evolve (evolutionary suicide). Arid ecosystems currently experience strong changes in climate and human pressures, but little is known about the effects of these changes on the selective pressures exerted on the vegetation. Here, we focus on the evolution of local facilitation in arid ecosystems, using a lattice-structured model explicitly considering local interactions among plants. We found that the evolution of local facilitation depends on the seed dispersal strategy. In systems characterized by short-distance seed dispersal, adaptation to a more stressful environment leads to high local facilitation, allowing the population to escape extinction. In contrast, systems characterized by long-distance seed dispersal become extinct under increased stress even when allowed to adapt. In this case, adaptation in response to climate change and human pressures could give the final push to the desertification of arid ecosystems.

Ultraviolet photometry from the Orbiting Astronomical Observatory. XX - The ultraviolet extinction bump

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, B. D.

1975-01-01

Ultraviolet extinction bumps are investigated in the interstellar extinction curves between 1800 and 3600 A for 36 stars which have (B-V) excesses ranging from 0.03 to 0.55 and are mostly confined to the brighter OB associations distributed along the galactic plane. Each extinction curve is found to have a broad bump which peaks near 2175 A and whose position and profile appear to be constant among all the stars. It is shown that the bump is probably interstellar in origin and that the constancy of its position and shape places such severe restrictions on grain geometrical parameters that classical scattering theory cannot be used to explain the feature unless the dust grains in widely separated regions of space and with very different physical conditions are assumed to have nearly identical size and shape distributions. Three extinction curves which extend to 1100 A are examined and found to have the same general characteristics as the others. Several extinction curves are analyzed for fine structure, but no convincing evidence is found in the present interval. Some processes are discussed which may be responsible for the bumps.

Preventing the return of fear memories with postretrieval extinction: A human study using a burst of white noise as an aversive stimulus.

PubMed

Fernandez-Rey, Jose; Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Daniel; Redondo, Jaime

2018-06-07

Standard extinction procedures seem to imply an inhibition of the fear response, but not a modification of the original fear-memory trace, which remains intact (Bouton, 2002, 2004). Typically, the behavioral procedure used to modify this trace is the so-called postretrieval extinction, consisting of fear-memory reactivation followed by extinction applied within the reconsolidation window. However, the application of this technique yields mixed results, probably due to a series of boundary conditions that limit the effectiveness of postretrieval-extinction effects. In this study a number of potential, and hitherto unexplored, moderators of such effects are considered. Using an interval of 48 hr between extinction and re-extinction, the findings show a spontaneous recovery similar to that found in studies that use a 24-hr interval. Also, the use of intervals of 10 and 20 min between reactivation and extinction led to a similar fear return. Finally, the burst of white noise used as an unconditioned stimulus (US) here was shown to be as effective as the electric shock normally used in the study of fear-memory reconsolidation. These findings suggest that postretrieval extinction is an effective behavioral technique for modifying the original fear memory and for the elimination of the fear return. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Woody encroachment over 70 years in South African savannahs: overgrazing, global change or extinction aftershock?

PubMed Central

Erasmus, B. F. N.; Archibald, S.

2016-01-01

Woody encroachment in ‘open’ biomes like grasslands and savannahs is occurring globally. Both local and global drivers, including elevated CO2, have been implicated in these increases. The relative importance of different processes is unresolved as there are few multi-site, multi-land-use evaluations of woody plant encroachment. We measured 70 years of woody cover changes over a 1020 km2 area covering four land uses (commercial ranching, conservation with elephants, conservation without elephants and communal rangelands) across a rainfall gradient in South African savannahs. Different directions of woody cover change would be expected for each different land use, unless a global factor is causing the increases. Woody cover change was measured between 1940 and 2010 using the aerial photo record. Detection of woody cover from each aerial photograph was automated using eCognitions' Object-based image analysis (OBIA). Woody cover doubled in all land uses across the rainfall gradient, except in conservation areas with elephants in low-rainfall savannahs. Woody cover in 2010 in low-rainfall savannahs frequently exceeded the maximum woody cover threshold predicted for African savannahs. The results indicate that a global factor, of which elevated CO2 is the likely candidate, may be driving encroachment. Elephants in low-rainfall savannahs prevent encroachment and localized megafaunal extinction is a probable additional cause of encroachment. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502384

Woody encroachment over 70 years in South African savannahs: overgrazing, global change or extinction aftershock?

PubMed

Stevens, Nicola; Erasmus, B F N; Archibald, S; Bond, W J

2016-09-19

Woody encroachment in 'open' biomes like grasslands and savannahs is occurring globally. Both local and global drivers, including elevated CO2, have been implicated in these increases. The relative importance of different processes is unresolved as there are few multi-site, multi-land-use evaluations of woody plant encroachment. We measured 70 years of woody cover changes over a 1020 km(2) area covering four land uses (commercial ranching, conservation with elephants, conservation without elephants and communal rangelands) across a rainfall gradient in South African savannahs. Different directions of woody cover change would be expected for each different land use, unless a global factor is causing the increases. Woody cover change was measured between 1940 and 2010 using the aerial photo record. Detection of woody cover from each aerial photograph was automated using eCognitions' Object-based image analysis (OBIA). Woody cover doubled in all land uses across the rainfall gradient, except in conservation areas with elephants in low-rainfall savannahs. Woody cover in 2010 in low-rainfall savannahs frequently exceeded the maximum woody cover threshold predicted for African savannahs. The results indicate that a global factor, of which elevated CO2 is the likely candidate, may be driving encroachment. Elephants in low-rainfall savannahs prevent encroachment and localized megafaunal extinction is a probable additional cause of encroachment.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Genetic diversity and demographic instability in Riftia pachyptila tubeworms from eastern Pacific hydrothermal vents

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Deep-sea hydrothermal vent animals occupy patchy and ephemeral habitats supported by chemosynthetic primary production. Volcanic and tectonic activities controlling the turnover of these habitats contribute to demographic instability that erodes genetic variation within and among colonies of these animals. We examined DNA sequences from one mitochondrial and three nuclear gene loci to assess genetic diversity in the siboglinid tubeworm, Riftia pachyptila, a widely distributed constituent of vents along the East Pacific Rise and Galápagos Rift. Results Genetic differentiation (FST) among populations increased with geographical distances, as expected under a linear stepping-stone model of dispersal. Low levels of DNA sequence diversity occurred at all four loci, allowing us to exclude the hypothesis that an idiosyncratic selective sweep eliminated mitochondrial diversity alone. Total gene diversity declined with tectonic spreading rates. The southernmost populations, which are subjected to superfast spreading rates and high probabilities of extinction, are relatively homogenous genetically. Conclusions Compared to other vent species, DNA sequence diversity is extremely low in R. pachyptila. Though its dispersal abilities appear to be effective, the low diversity, particularly in southern hemisphere populations, is consistent with frequent local extinction and (re)colonization events. PMID:21489281

Genetic diversity and demographic instability in Riftia pachyptila tubeworms from eastern Pacific hydrothermal vents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coykendall, D.K.; Johnson, S.B.; Karl, S.A.; Lutz, R.A.; Vrijenhoek, R.C.

2011-01-01

Background: Deep-sea hydrothermal vent animals occupy patchy and ephemeral habitats supported by chemosynthetic primary production. Volcanic and tectonic activities controlling the turnover of these habitats contribute to demographic instability that erodes genetic variation within and among colonies of these animals. We examined DNA sequences from one mitochondrial and three nuclear gene loci to assess genetic diversity in the siboglinid tubeworm, Riftia pachyptila, a widely distributed constituent of vents along the East Pacific Rise and Galpagos Rift. Results: Genetic differentiation (FST) among populations increased with geographical distances, as expected under a linear stepping-stone model of dispersal. Low levels of DNA sequence diversity occurred at all four loci, allowing us to exclude the hypothesis that an idiosyncratic selective sweep eliminated mitochondrial diversity alone. Total gene diversity declined with tectonic spreading rates. The southernmost populations, which are subjected to superfast spreading rates and high probabilities of extinction, are relatively homogenous genetically. Conclusions: Compared to other vent species, DNA sequence diversity is extremely low in R. pachyptila. Though its dispersal abilities appear to be effective, the low diversity, particularly in southern hemisphere populations, is consistent with frequent local extinction and (re)colonization events. ?? 2011 Coykendall et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Last glacial megafaunal death assemblage and early human occupation at Lake Menindee, southeastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cupper, Matthew L.; Duncan, Jacqui

2006-09-01

The Tedford subfossil locality at Lake Menindee preserves a diverse assemblage of marsupials, monotremes and placental rodents. Of the 38 mammal taxa recorded at the site, almost a third are of extinct megafauna. Some of the bones are articulated or semi-articulated and include almost complete skeletons, indicating that aeolian sediments rapidly buried the animals following death. New optical ages show the site dates to the early part of the last glacial (55,700 ± 1300 yr weighted mean age). This is close to the 51,200-39,800 yr Australia-wide extinction age for megafauna suggested by Roberts et al. [2001, Science 292:1888-1892], but like all previous researchers, we cannot conclusively determine whether humans were implicated in the deaths of the animals. Although an intrusive hearth at the site dating to 45,100 ± 1400 yr ago is the oldest evidence of human occupation of the Darling River, no artifacts were identified in situ within the sub-fossil-bearing unit. Non-anthropogenic causes, such as natural senescence or ecosystem stress due to climatic aridity, probably explain the mortality of the faunal assemblage at Lake Menindee.

Does extinction of responses to cigarette cues occur during smoking cessation?

PubMed

O'Connell, Kathleen A; Shiffman, Saul; Decarlo, Lawrence T

2011-02-01

This study investigated whether Pavlovian extinction occurs during smoking cessation by determining whether experience abstaining from smoking in the presence of cigarette cues leads to decreased probability of lapsing and whether this effect is mediated by craving. Secondary analyses were carried out with data sets from two studies with correlational/observational designs. Data were collected in smokers' natural environments using ecological momentary assessment techniques. Sixty-one and 207 smokers who were attempting cessation participated. Multi-level path models were used to examine effects of prior experience abstaining in the presence of available cigarettes and while others were smoking on subsequent craving intensity and the probability of lapsing. Control variables included current cigarette availability, current exposure to others smoking, number of prior lapses and time in the study. Both currently available cigarettes [odds ratios (OR) = 36.60, 11.59] and the current presence of other smoking (OR = 5.00, 1.52) were powerful predictors of smoking lapse. Repeated exposure to available cigarettes without smoking was associated with a significantly lower probability of lapse in subsequent episodes (OR = 0.44, 0.52). However, exposure to others smoking was not a reliable predictor, being significant only in the smaller study (OR = 0.30). Craving functioned as a mediator between extinction of available cigarettes and lapsing only in the smaller study and was not a mediator for extinction of others smoking in either study. This study showed that exposure to available cigarettes is a large risk factor for lapsing, but that this risk can also be reduced over time by repeated exposures without smoking. Smoking cessation interventions should attempt to reduce cigarette exposure (by training cigarette avoidance) but recognize the potential advantage of unreinforced exposure to available cigarettes. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Local extinction and unintentional rewilding of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) on a desert island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilder, Benjamin T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Epps, Clinton W.; Crowhurst, Rachel S.; Mead, Jim I.; Ezcurra, Exequiel

2014-01-01

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were not known to live on Tiburón Island, the largest island in the Gulf of California and Mexico, prior to the surprisingly successful introduction of 20 individuals as a conservation measure in 1975. Today, a stable island population of ~500 sheep supports limited big game hunting and restocking of depleted areas on the Mexican mainland. We discovered fossil dung morphologically similar to that of bighorn sheep in a dung mat deposit from Mojet Cave, in the mountains of Tiburón Island. To determine the origin of this cave deposit we compared pellet shape to fecal pellets of other large mammals, and extracted DNA to sequence mitochondrial DNA fragments at the 12S ribosomal RNA and control regions. The fossil dung was 14C-dated to 1476–1632 calendar years before present and was confirmed as bighorn sheep by morphological and ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis. 12S sequences closely or exactly matched known bighorn sheep sequences; control region sequences exactly matched a haplotype described in desert bighorn sheep populations in southwest Arizona and southern California and showed subtle differentiation from the extant Tiburón population. Native desert bighorn sheep previously colonized this land-bridge island, most likely during the Pleistocene, when lower sea levels connected Tiburón to the mainland. They were extirpated sometime in the last ~1500 years, probably due to inherent dynamics of isolated populations, prolonged drought, and (or) human overkill. The reintroduced population is vulnerable to similar extinction risks. The discovery presented here refutes conventional wisdom that bighorn sheep are not native to Tiburón Island, and establishes its recent introduction as an example of unintentional rewilding, defined here as the introduction of a species without knowledge that it was once native and has since gone locally extinct.

Local extinction and unintentional rewilding of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) on a desert island.

PubMed

Wilder, Benjamin T; Betancourt, Julio L; Epps, Clinton W; Crowhurst, Rachel S; Mead, Jim I; Ezcurra, Exequiel

2014-01-01

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were not known to live on Tiburón Island, the largest island in the Gulf of California and Mexico, prior to the surprisingly successful introduction of 20 individuals as a conservation measure in 1975. Today, a stable island population of ∼500 sheep supports limited big game hunting and restocking of depleted areas on the Mexican mainland. We discovered fossil dung morphologically similar to that of bighorn sheep in a dung mat deposit from Mojet Cave, in the mountains of Tiburón Island. To determine the origin of this cave deposit we compared pellet shape to fecal pellets of other large mammals, and extracted DNA to sequence mitochondrial DNA fragments at the 12S ribosomal RNA and control regions. The fossil dung was 14C-dated to 1476-1632 calendar years before present and was confirmed as bighorn sheep by morphological and ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis. 12S sequences closely or exactly matched known bighorn sheep sequences; control region sequences exactly matched a haplotype described in desert bighorn sheep populations in southwest Arizona and southern California and showed subtle differentiation from the extant Tiburón population. Native desert bighorn sheep previously colonized this land-bridge island, most likely during the Pleistocene, when lower sea levels connected Tiburón to the mainland. They were extirpated sometime in the last ∼1500 years, probably due to inherent dynamics of isolated populations, prolonged drought, and (or) human overkill. The reintroduced population is vulnerable to similar extinction risks. The discovery presented here refutes conventional wisdom that bighorn sheep are not native to Tiburón Island, and establishes its recent introduction as an example of unintentional rewilding, defined here as the introduction of a species without knowledge that it was once native and has since gone locally extinct.

Local Extinction and Unintentional Rewilding of Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis) on a Desert Island

PubMed Central

Wilder, Benjamin T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Epps, Clinton W.; Crowhurst, Rachel S.; Mead, Jim I.; Ezcurra, Exequiel

2014-01-01

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were not known to live on Tiburón Island, the largest island in the Gulf of California and Mexico, prior to the surprisingly successful introduction of 20 individuals as a conservation measure in 1975. Today, a stable island population of ∼500 sheep supports limited big game hunting and restocking of depleted areas on the Mexican mainland. We discovered fossil dung morphologically similar to that of bighorn sheep in a dung mat deposit from Mojet Cave, in the mountains of Tiburón Island. To determine the origin of this cave deposit we compared pellet shape to fecal pellets of other large mammals, and extracted DNA to sequence mitochondrial DNA fragments at the 12S ribosomal RNA and control regions. The fossil dung was 14C-dated to 1476–1632 calendar years before present and was confirmed as bighorn sheep by morphological and ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis. 12S sequences closely or exactly matched known bighorn sheep sequences; control region sequences exactly matched a haplotype described in desert bighorn sheep populations in southwest Arizona and southern California and showed subtle differentiation from the extant Tiburón population. Native desert bighorn sheep previously colonized this land-bridge island, most likely during the Pleistocene, when lower sea levels connected Tiburón to the mainland. They were extirpated sometime in the last ∼1500 years, probably due to inherent dynamics of isolated populations, prolonged drought, and (or) human overkill. The reintroduced population is vulnerable to similar extinction risks. The discovery presented here refutes conventional wisdom that bighorn sheep are not native to Tiburón Island, and establishes its recent introduction as an example of unintentional rewilding, defined here as the introduction of a species without knowledge that it was once native and has since gone locally extinct. PMID:24646515

Study and modeling of finite rate chemistry effects in turbulent non-premixed flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vervisch, Luc

1993-01-01

The development of numerical models that reflect some of the most important features of turbulent reacting flows requires information about the behavior of key quantities in well defined combustion regimes. In turbulent flames, the coupling between turbulent and chemical processes is so strong that it is extremely difficult to isolate the role played by one individual physical phenomenon. Direct numerical simulation (hereafter DNS) allows us to study in detail the turbulence-chemistry interaction in some restricted but completely defined situations. Globally, non-premixed flames are controlled by two limiting regimes: the fast chemistry case, where the turbulent flame can be pictured as a random distribution of local chemical equilibrium problems; and the slow chemistry case, where the chemistry integrates in time the turbulent fluctuations. The Damkoehler number, ratio of a mechanical time scale to chemical time scale, is used to distinguish between these regimes. Today most of the industrial computer codes are able to perform predictions in the hypothesis of local equilibrium chemistry using a presumed shape for the probability density function (pdt) of the conserved scalar. However, the finite rate chemistry situation is of great interest because industrial burners usually generate regimes in which, at some points, the flame is undergoing local extinction or at least non-equilibrium situations. Moreover, this variety of situations strongly influences the production of pollutants. To quantify finite rate chemistry effect, the interaction between a non-premixed flame and a free decaying turbulence is studied using DNS. The attention is focused on the dynamic of extinction, and an attempt is made to quantify the effect of the reaction on the small scale mixing process. The unequal diffusivity effect is also addressed. Finally, a simple turbulent combustion model based on the DNS observations and tractable in real flow configurations is proposed.

The extinct river shark Glyphis pagoda from the Miocene of Myanmar and a review of the fossil record of the genus Glyphis (Carcharhiniformes: Carcharhinidae).

PubMed

Shimada, Kenshu; Egi, Naoko; Tsubamoto, Takehisa; Maung-Maung, Maung-Maung; Thaung-Htike, Thaung-Htike; Zin-Maung-Maung-Thein, Zin-Maung-Maung-Thein; Nishioka, Yuichiro; Sonoda, Teppei; Takai, Masanaru

2016-09-05

We redescribe an extinct river shark, Glyphis pagoda (Noetling), on the basis of 20 teeth newly collected from three different Miocene localities in Myanmar. One locality is a nearshore marine deposit (Obogon Formation) whereas the other two localities represent terrestrial freshwater deposits (Irrawaddy sediments), suggesting that G. pagoda from the Irrawaddy sediments was capable of tolerating low salinity like the extant Glyphis. Glyphis pagoda likely reached up to at least 185 cm in total body length and was probably piscivorous. The fossil species occurs in rocks of Myanmar and eastern and western India and stratigraphically ranges at least from the Lower Miocene (Aquitanian) to the lower Upper Miocene (mid-Tortonian). It has been classified under at least eight other genera to date, along with numerous taxonomic synonyms largely stemming from the lack of understanding of the heterodonty in extant Glyphis in the original description. Our literature review suggests that known Miocene shark faunas, particularly those in India, are manifested with unreliable taxonomic identifications and outdated classifications that warrant the need for a comprehensive taxonomic review in order to evaluate the evolutionary history and diversity pattern of Miocene shark faunas. The genus Glyphis has a roughly 23-million-year-long history, and its success may be related to the evolution of its low salinity tolerance. While extant Glyphis spp. are considered to be particularly vulnerable to habitat degradation and overfishing, the fossil record of G. pagoda provides renewed perspective on the natural history of the genus that can be taken into further consideration for conservation biology of the extant forms.

Population dynamics in non-homogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alards, Kim M. J.; Tesser, Francesca; Toschi, Federico

2014-11-01

For organisms living in aquatic ecosystems the presence of fluid transport can have a strong influence on the dynamics of populations and on evolution of species. In particular, displacements due to self-propulsion, summed up with turbulent dispersion at larger scales, strongly influence the local densities and thus population and genetic dynamics. Real marine environments are furthermore characterized by a high degree of non-homogeneities. In the case of population fronts propagating in ``fast'' turbulence, with respect to the population duplication time, the flow effect can be studied by replacing the microscopic diffusivity with an effective turbulent diffusivity. In the opposite case of ``slow'' turbulence the advection by the flow has to be considered locally. Here we employ numerical simulations to study the influence of non-homogeneities in the diffusion coefficient of reacting individuals of different species expanding in a 2 dimensional space. Moreover, to explore the influence of advection, we consider a population expanding in the presence of simple velocity fields like cellular flows. The output is analyzed in terms of front roughness, front shape, propagation speed and, concerning the genetics, by means of heterozygosity and local and global extinction probabilities.

Mass Extinctions and Supernova Explosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korschinek, Gunther

A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation or the direct exposure of lethal X-rays. Another indirect effect is cloud formation, induced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere which result in a drop in the Earth's temperature, causing major glaciations of the Earth. The discovery of highly intensive gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), which could be connected to SNe, initiated further discussions on possible life-threatening events in the Earth's history. The probability that GRBs hit the Earth is very low. Nevertheless, a past interaction of Earth with GRBs and/or SNe cannot be excluded and might even have been responsible for past extinction events.

New U/Th ages for Pleistocene megafauna deposits of southeastern Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Gilbert J.; Zhao, Jian-xin; Feng, Yue-xing; Hocknull, Scott A.

2009-02-01

Arguments over the extinction of Pleistocene megafauna have become particularly polarised in recent years. Causes for the extinctions are widely debated with climate change, human hunting and/or habitat modification, or a combination of those factors, being the dominant hypotheses. However, a lack of a spatially constrained chronology for many megafauna renders most hypotheses difficult to test. Here, we present several new U/Th dates for a series of previously undated, megafauna-bearing localities from southeastern Queensland, Australia. The sites were previously used to argue for or against various megafauna extinction hypotheses, and are the type localities for two now-extinct Pleistocene marsupials (including the giant koala, Phascolarctos stirtoni). The new dating allows the deposits to be placed in a spatially- and temporally constrained context relevant to the understanding of Australian megafaunal extinctions. The results indicate that The Joint (Texas Caves) megafaunal assemblage is middle Pleistocene or older (>292 ky); the Cement Mills (Gore) megafaunal assemblage is late Pleistocene or older (>53 ky); and the Russenden Cave Bone Chamber (Texas Caves) megafaunal assemblage is late Pleistocene (˜55 ky). Importantly, the new results broadly show that the sites date prior to the hypothesised megafaunal extinction 'window' (i.e., ˜30-50 ky), and therefore, cannot be used to argue exclusively for or against human/climate change extinction models, without first exploring their palaeoecological significance on wider temporal and spatial scales.

Extinction of water plants in the Hula Valley: Evidence for climate change.

PubMed

Melamed, Yoel; Kislev, Mordechai; Weiss, Ehud; Simchoni, Orit

2011-04-01

We describe two events of water plant extinction in the Hula Valley, northern Israel: the ancient, natural extinction of 3 out of 14 extinct species at Gesher Benot Ya'aqov, which occurred some 800-700 k.yr., and an anthropogenic, near contemporary extinction of seven species in the artificial drainage of the Hula Lake in the 1950s. We conclude that the considerable fraction of water plants that disappeared from the Hula Valley in the Early-Middle Pleistocene was the result of habitat desiccation and not global warming. Thus, there is evidence that the hominins who lived in the Hula Valley inhabited a comparatively dry place. The disappearance of water plant species was partially the result of reduced seed dispersal by birds (ornitochory) as a result of the shrinkage of water bodies and their number along the Rift Valley. We suggest that the disappearance of a group of rare, local water plants can be used as an indicator of climate drying and impacts on the local vegetation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival behavior in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model with a randomly switching reaction rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, Robert; Mobilia, Mauro; Rucklidge, Alastair M.

2018-02-01

We study the influence of a randomly switching reproduction-predation rate on the survival behavior of the nonspatial cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, also known as the zero-sum rock-paper-scissors game, used to metaphorically describe the cyclic competition between three species. In large and finite populations, demographic fluctuations (internal noise) drive two species to extinction in a finite time, while the species with the smallest reproduction-predation rate is the most likely to be the surviving one (law of the weakest). Here we model environmental (external) noise by assuming that the reproduction-predation rate of the strongest species (the fastest to reproduce and predate) in a given static environment randomly switches between two values corresponding to more and less favorable external conditions. We study the joint effect of environmental and demographic noise on the species survival probabilities and on the mean extinction time. In particular, we investigate whether the survival probabilities follow the law of the weakest and analyze their dependence on the external noise intensity and switching rate. Remarkably, when, on average, there is a finite number of switches prior to extinction, the survival probability of the predator of the species whose reaction rate switches typically varies nonmonotonically with the external noise intensity (with optimal survival about a critical noise strength). We also outline the relationship with the case where all reaction rates switch on markedly different time scales.

Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Allan, Nathan; Servoss, Jeff; Hedwall, Shaula J.; Wooldridge, Brian

2017-01-01

Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

Carbon isotopic shift and its cause at the Wuchiapingian-Changhsingian boundary in the Upper Permian at the Zhaojiaba section, South China: Evidences from multiple geochemical proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Hengye; Yu, Hao; Wang, Jianguo; Qiu, Zhen; Xiang, Lei; Shi, Guo

2015-06-01

The Late Permian environmental change, connecting the Guadalupian-Lopingian (G-L) (Middle-Upper Permian) boundary mass extinction and the Permain-Triassic (P-Tr) boundary mass extinction, has attracted more and more attentions. A significant negative shift for carbon isotope had been found at the Wuchiapingian-Changhsingian (W-C) boundary in the Upper Permian recently. However, the cause(s) of this negative excursion is still unknown. To resolve this problem, we analyzed the bulk organic carbon isotope, total organic carbon (TOC) content, pyritic sulfur (Spy) content, major element concentrations, and molecular organic biomarkers in the Wujiaping and Dalong formations in the Upper Permian from the Zhaojiaba section in western Hubei province, South China. Our results show that (1) there was a significant negative excursion in organic carbon isotopes at the W-C boundary and again a negative excursion at the top of Changhsingian stage; (2) the significant negative excursion at the W-C boundary was probably a global signal and mainly caused by the low primary productivity; and (3) the negative carbon isotope excursion at the top of Changhsingian was probably caused by the Siberian Traps eruptions. A decline in oceanic primary productivity at the W-C boundary probably represents a disturbance of the marine food web, leading to a vulnerable ecosystem prior to the P-Tr boundary mass extinction.

Rebuilding Biodiversity of Patagonian Marine Molluscs after the End-Cretaceous Mass Extinction

PubMed Central

Aberhan, Martin; Kiessling, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

We analysed field-collected quantitative data of benthic marine molluscs across the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary in Patagonia to identify patterns and processes of biodiversity reconstruction after the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. We contrast diversity dynamics from nearshore environments with those from offshore environments. In both settings, Early Palaeogene (Danian) assemblages are strongly dominated by surviving lineages, many of which changed their relative abundance from being rare before the extinction event to becoming the new dominant forms. Only a few of the species in the Danian assemblages were newly evolved. In offshore environments, however, two newly evolved Danian bivalve species attained ecological dominance by replacing two ecologically equivalent species that disappeared at the end of the Cretaceous. In both settings, the total number of Danian genera at a locality remained below the total number of late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) genera at that locality. We suggest that biotic interactions, in particular incumbency effects, suppressed post-extinction diversity and prevented the compensation of diversity loss by originating and invading taxa. Contrary to the total number of genera at localities, diversity at the level of individual fossiliferous horizons before and after the boundary is indistinguishable in offshore environments. This indicates an evolutionary rapid rebound to pre-extinction values within less than ca 0.5 million years. In nearshore environments, by contrast, diversity of fossiliferous horizons was reduced in the Danian, and this lowered diversity lasted for the entire studied post-extinction interval. In this heterogeneous environment, low connectivity among populations may have retarded the recolonisation of nearshore habitats by survivors. PMID:25028930

Reduction and Uncertainty Analysis of Chemical Mechanisms Based on Local and Global Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Gaetano

Numerical simulations of critical reacting flow phenomena in hypersonic propulsion devices require accurate representation of finite-rate chemical kinetics. The chemical kinetic models available for hydrocarbon fuel combustion are rather large, involving hundreds of species and thousands of reactions. As a consequence, they cannot be used in multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamic calculations in the foreseeable future due to the prohibitive computational cost. In addition to the computational difficulties, it is also known that some fundamental chemical kinetic parameters of detailed models have significant level of uncertainty due to limited experimental data available and to poor understanding of interactions among kinetic parameters. In the present investigation, local and global sensitivity analysis techniques are employed to develop a systematic approach of reducing and analyzing detailed chemical kinetic models. Unlike previous studies in which skeletal model reduction was based on the separate analysis of simple cases, in this work a novel strategy based on Principal Component Analysis of local sensitivity values is presented. This new approach is capable of simultaneously taking into account all the relevant canonical combustion configurations over different composition, temperature and pressure conditions. Moreover, the procedure developed in this work represents the first documented inclusion of non-premixed extinction phenomena, which is of great relevance in hypersonic combustors, in an automated reduction algorithm. The application of the skeletal reduction to a detailed kinetic model consisting of 111 species in 784 reactions is demonstrated. The resulting reduced skeletal model of 37--38 species showed that the global ignition/propagation/extinction phenomena of ethylene-air mixtures can be predicted within an accuracy of 2% of the full detailed model. The problems of both understanding non-linear interactions between kinetic parameters and identifying sources of uncertainty affecting relevant reaction pathways are usually addressed by resorting to Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques. In particular, the most sensitive reactions controlling combustion phenomena are first identified using the Morris Method and then analyzed under the Random Sampling -- High Dimensional Model Representation (RS-HDMR) framework. The HDMR decomposition shows that 10% of the variance seen in the extinction strain rate of non-premixed flames is due to second-order effects between parameters, whereas the maximum concentration of acetylene, a key soot precursor, is affected by mostly only first-order contributions. Moreover, the analysis of the global sensitivity indices demonstrates that improving the accuracy of the reaction rates including the vinyl radical, C2H3, can drastically reduce the uncertainty of predicting targeted flame properties. Finally, the back-propagation of the experimental uncertainty of the extinction strain rate to the parameter space is also performed. This exercise, achieved by recycling the numerical solutions of the RS-HDMR, shows that some regions of the parameter space have a high probability of reproducing the experimental value of the extinction strain rate between its own uncertainty bounds. Therefore this study demonstrates that the uncertainty analysis of bulk flame properties can effectively provide information on relevant chemical reactions.

On NEO Threat Mitigation (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-15

Yucatan event is at least a major contributor, if not the direct cause of the extinction of the dinosaurs . Moreover, it is clear that NEO impacts can... extinction of the human race. The probability of these events decreases with the severity of the impact, and size (mass) of the NEO. Figure 1 and Table 1...thus, it is more reasonable to infer that all the large NEOs can be catalogued within a reasonable time, while smaller and less consequential

A late Devonian impact event and its association with a possible extinction event on Eastern Gondwana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, K.; Geldsetzer, H. H. J.

1992-01-01

Evidence from South China and Western Australia for a 365-Ma impact event in the Lower crepida conodont zone of the Famennian stage of the Late Devonian (about 1.5 Ma after the Frasnian/Famennian extinction event) includes microtektitelike glassy microspherules, geochemical anomalies (including a weak Ir), a probable impact crater (greater than 70 k) at Taihu in South China, and an Ir anomaly in Western Australia. A brachiopod faunal turnover in South China, and the 'strangelove ocean'-like c-delta 13 excursions in both Chinese and Australian sections indicate that at least a regional-scale extinction might have occurred at the time of the impact. A paleoreconstruction shows that South China was very close to and facing Western Australia in the Late Devonian. The carbon isotopic excursions, which occur at the same stratigraphic level in both South China and Western Australia cannot be explained as being coincidental. The c-delta 13 excursions and the brachiopod faunal turnover in South China indicate that there might have been at least a regional (possibly global) extinction in the Lower crepida zone. The impact-derived microspherules and geochemical anomalies (especially the Ir) indicate a Lower crepida zone impact event on eastern Gondwana. The location, type of target rocks, and possibly age of the Taihu Lake crater qualify as the probable site of this Late Devonian impact.

Age and diet of fossil california condors in grand canyon, Arizona.

PubMed

Emslie, S D

1987-08-14

A dozen new radiocarbon dates, together with a thorough review of its fossil distribution, shed new light on the time and probable cause of extinction of the California condor, Gymnogyps californianus, in Grand Canyon, Arizona. The radiocarbon data indicate that this species became extinct in Grand Canyon, and other parts of the inland West, more than 10,000 years ago in coincidence with the extinction of megafauna (proboscidians, edentates, perissodactyls). That condors relied on the megafauna for food is suggested by the recovery of food bones from a late Pleistocene nest cave in Grand Canyon. These fossil data have relevance to proposed release and recovery programs of the present endangered population of California condors.

Extragalactic interstellar extinction curves: Indicators of local physical conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Viti, Serena; Williams, David A., E-mail: cecchi-pestellini@astropa.unipa.it, E-mail: sv@star.ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: daw@star.ucl.ac.uk

Normalized interstellar extinction curves (ISECs) in the Milky Way and other galaxies show a variety of shapes. This variety is attributed to differences along different sight lines in the abundances of the several dust and gas components contributing to extinction. In this paper we propose that these abundance differences are not arbitrary but are a specific consequence of the physical conditions on those sight lines. If this proposal is correct, then it implies that ISECs contain information about physical conditions in the regions generating extinction. This may be particularly important for high redshift galaxies where information on the conditions maymore » be difficult to obtain. We adopt a model of extinction carriers in which the solid and gaseous components are not immutable but respond time-dependently to the local physics. We validate this model by fitting extinction curves measured on sight lines in the Magellanic Clouds and obtained for the gamma-ray burst afterglow GRB 080605. We present results for this model as follows: (1) we show that computed ISECs are controlled by a small number of physical parameters, (2) we demonstrate the sensitivity of computed ISECs to these parameters, (3) we compute as examples ISECs for particular galaxy types, and (4) we note that different galaxy types have different shapes of ISEC.« less

Optimal control of predator-prey mathematical model with infection and harvesting on prey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diva Amalia, R. U.; Fatmawati; Windarto; Khusnul Arif, Didik

2018-03-01

This paper presents a predator-prey mathematical model with infection and harvesting on prey. The infection and harvesting only occur on the prey population and it assumed that the prey infection would not infect predator population. We analysed the mathematical model of predator-prey with infection and harvesting in prey. Optimal control, which is a prevention of the prey infection, also applied in the model and denoted as U. The purpose of the control is to increase the susceptible prey. The analytical result showed that the model has five equilibriums, namely the extinction equilibrium (E 0), the infection free and predator extinction equilibrium (E 1), the infection free equilibrium (E 2), the predator extinction equilibrium (E 3), and the coexistence equilibrium (E 4). The extinction equilibrium (E 0) is not stable. The infection free and predator extinction equilibrium (E 1), the infection free equilibrium (E 2), also the predator extinction equilibrium (E 3), are locally asymptotically stable with some certain conditions. The coexistence equilibrium (E 4) tends to be locally asymptotically stable. Afterwards, by using the Maximum Pontryagin Principle, we obtained the existence of optimal control U. From numerical simulation, we can conclude that the control could increase the population of susceptible prey and decrease the infected prey.

Rescuing Ecosystems from Extinction Cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahasrabudhe, Sagar; Motter, Adilson

2010-03-01

Food web perturbations stemming from climate change, overexploitation, invasive species, and natural disasters often cause an initial loss of species that results in a cascade of secondary extinctions. Using a predictive modeling framework, here we will present a systematic network-based approach to reduce the number of secondary extinctions. We will show that the extinction of one species can often be compensated by the concurrent removal of a second specific species, which is a counter-intuitive effect not previously tested in complex food webs. These compensatory perturbations frequently involve long-range interactions that are not a priori evident from local predator-prey relationships. Strikingly, in numerous cases even the early removal of a species that would eventually be extinct by the cascade is found to significantly reduce the number of cascading extinctions. Other nondestructive interventions based on partial removals and growth suppression and/or mortality increase are shown to sometimes prevent all secondary extinctions.

Effects of prenatal chronic mild stress exposure on hippocampal cell proliferation, expression of GSK-3α, β and NR2B in adult offspring during fear extinction in rats.

PubMed

Li, Min; Li, Xiaobai; Zhang, Xinxin; Ren, Jintao; Jiang, Han; Wang, Yan; Ma, Yuchao; Cheng, Wenwen

2014-06-01

Stress during pregnancy has been implicated as a risk factor for the development of many mental disorders; however, the influence of prenatal stress on the fear or anxiety-related behaviors, especially the fear extinction in adult offspring has been little investigated. In order to investigate how prenatal stress affects fear extinction, which is regarded as a form of new learning that counteracts the expression of Pavlovian's conditioned fear, a rat model of prenatal chronic mild stress (PNS) was used to evaluate the effects of PNS on fear extinction in adult offspring. The expression of hippocampal glycogen synthase kinase-3s (GSK-3α, β), N-methyl-d-aspartic acid receptors (NMDARs)-2B and the hippocampal cell proliferation in dentate gyrus in the adult offspring during fear extinction were studied. Our results showed that PNS significantly reduced body weight of pups, indicating PNS might induce growth retardation in offspring. Moreover, PNS significantly enhanced the freezing behavior of offspring at the phase of extinction, suggesting PNS impaired the abilities of fear extinction learning. In addition, PNS significantly increased the levels of GSK-3α, β and NR2B, but reduced hippocampal cell proliferation during fear extinction. Taken together, our findings suggest that maternal stress during pregnancy can impair the fear extinction of adult offspring, probably by affecting the neural plasticity of brain. Copyright © 2014 ISDN. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crustal shear-wave splitting from local earthquakes in the Hengill triple junction, southwest Iceland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, J.R.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.; Miller, A.D.

1996-01-01

The Hengill region in SW Iceland is an unstable ridge-ridge-transform triple junction between an active and a waning segment of the mid-Atlantic spreading center and a transform that is transgressing southward. The triple junction contains active and extinct spreading segments and a widespread geothermal area. We evaluated shear-wave birefringence for locally recorded upper-crustal earthquakes using an array of 30 three-component digital seismographs. Fast-polarization directions, ??, are mostly NE to NNE, subparallel to the spreading axis and probably caused by fissures and microcracks related to spreading. However, there is significant variability in ?? throughout the array. The lag from fast to slow S is not proportional to earthquake depth (ray length), being scattered at all depths. The average wave-speed difference between qS1 and qS2 in the upper 2-5 km of the crust is 2-5%. Our results suggest considerable heterogeneity or strong S scattering.

Red List of vascular plants of the Wadden Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wind, P.; van der Ende, M.; Garve, E.; Schacherer, A.; Thissen, J. B. M.

1996-10-01

In the Wadden Sea area, a total of 248 (sub)species of vascular plants are threatened in at least one subregion. Of these, 216 (sub)species are threatened in the entire area and are therefore placed on the trialteral Red List. 17 (sub)species of the listed vascular plants are (probably) extinct in the entire Wadden Sea area. The status of 47 (sub)species of vascular plants is (probably) critical; 61 (sub)species are (probably) endangered; the status of 65 (sub)species is (probably) vulnerable and that of 26 (sub)species susceptible.

A phosphodiesterase 4-controlled switch between memory extinction and strengthening in the hippocampus

PubMed Central

Roesler, Rafael; Reolon, Gustavo K.; Maurmann, Natasha; Schwartsmann, Gilberto; Schröder, Nadja; Amaral, Olavo B.; Valvassori, Samira; Quevedo, João

2014-01-01

Established fear-related memories can undergo phenomena such as extinction or reconsolidation when recalled. Extinction probably involves the creation of a new, competing memory trace that decreases fear expression, whereas reconsolidation can mediate memory maintenance, updating, or strengthening. The factors determining whether retrieval will initiate extinction, reconsolidation, or neither of these two processes include training intensity, duration of the retrieval session, and age of the memory. However, previous studies have not shown that the same behavioral protocol can be used to induce either extinction or reconsolidation and strengthening, depending on the pharmacological intervention used. Here we show that, within an experiment that leads to extinction in control rats, memory can be strengthened if rolipram, a selective inhibitor of phosphodiesterase type 4 (PDE4), is administered into the dorsal hippocampus immediately after retrieval. The memory-enhancing effect of rolipram lasted for at least 1 week, was blocked by the protein synthesis inhibitor anisomycin, and did not occur when drug administration was not paired with retrieval. These findings indicate that the behavioral outcome of memory retrieval can be pharmacologically switched from extinction to strengthening. The cAMP/protein kinase A (PKA) signaling pathway might be a crucial mechanism determining the fate of memories after recall. PMID:24672454

Climate change in metacommunities: dispersal gives double-sided effects on persistence.

PubMed

Eklöf, Anna; Kaneryd, Linda; Münger, Peter

2012-11-05

Climate change is increasingly affecting the structure and dynamics of ecological communities both at local and at regional scales, and this can be expected to have important consequences for their robustness and long-term persistence. The aim of the present work is to analyse how the spatial structure of the landscape and dispersal patterns of species (dispersal rate and average dispersal distance) affects metacommunity response to two disturbances: (i) increased mortality during dispersal and (ii) local species extinction. We analyse the disturbances both in isolation and in combination. Using a spatially and dynamically explicit metacommunity model, we find that the effect of dispersal on metacommunity persistence is two-sided: on the one hand, high dispersal significantly reduces the risk of bottom-up extinction cascades following the local removal of a species; on the other hand, when dispersal imposes a risk to the dispersing individuals, high dispersal increases extinction risks, especially when dispersal is global. Large-bodied species with long generation times at the highest trophic level are particularly vulnerable to extinction when dispersal involves a risk. This suggests that decreasing the mortality risk of dispersing individuals by improving the quality of the habitat matrix may greatly increase the robustness of metacommunities.

Probabilistic measures of persistence and extinction in measles (meta)populations.

PubMed

Gunning, Christian E; Wearing, Helen J

2013-08-01

Persistence and extinction are fundamental processes in ecological systems that are difficult to accurately measure due to stochasticity and incomplete observation. Moreover, these processes operate on multiple scales, from individual populations to metapopulations. Here, we examine an extensive new data set of measles case reports and associated demographics in pre-vaccine era US cities, alongside a classic England & Wales data set. We first infer the per-population quasi-continuous distribution of log incidence. We then use stochastic, spatially implicit metapopulation models to explore the frequency of rescue events and apparent extinctions. We show that, unlike critical community size, the inferred distributions account for observational processes, allowing direct comparisons between metapopulations. The inferred distributions scale with population size. We use these scalings to estimate extinction boundary probabilities. We compare these predictions with measurements in individual populations and random aggregates of populations, highlighting the importance of medium-sized populations in metapopulation persistence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions.

PubMed

Pimm, Stuart; Raven, Peter; Peterson, Alan; Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Ehrlich, Paul R

2006-07-18

Unqualified, the statement that approximately 1.3% of the approximately 10,000 presently known bird species have become extinct since A.D. 1500 yields an estimate of approximately 26 extinctions per million species per year (or 26 E/MSY). This is higher than the benchmark rate of approximately 1 E/MSY before human impacts, but is a serious underestimate. First, Polynesian expansion across the Pacific also exterminated many species well before European explorations. Second, three factors increase the rate: (i) The number of known extinctions before 1800 is increasing as taxonomists describe new species from skeletal remains. (ii) One should calculate extinction rates over the years since taxonomists described the species. Most bird species were described only after 1850. (iii) Some species are probably extinct; there is reluctance to declare them so prematurely. Thus corrected, recent extinction rates are approximately 100 E/MSY. In the last decades, the rate is <50 E/MSY, but would be 150 E/MSY were it not for conservation efforts. Increasing numbers of extinctions are on continents, whereas previously most were on islands. We predict a 21st century rate of approximately 1,000 E/MSY. Extinction threatens 12% of bird species; another 12% have small geographical ranges and live where human actions rapidly destroy their habitats. If present forest losses continue, extinction rates will reach 1,500 E/MSY by the century's end. Invasive species, expanding human technologies, and global change will harm additional species. Birds are poor models for predicting extinction rates for other taxa. Human actions threaten higher fractions of other well known taxa than they do birds. Moreover, people take special efforts to protect birds.

Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions

PubMed Central

Pimm, Stuart; Raven, Peter; Peterson, Alan; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Ehrlich, Paul R.

2006-01-01

Unqualified, the statement that ≈1.3% of the ≈10,000 presently known bird species have become extinct since A.D. 1500 yields an estimate of ≈26 extinctions per million species per year (or 26 E/MSY). This is higher than the benchmark rate of ≈1 E/MSY before human impacts, but is a serious underestimate. First, Polynesian expansion across the Pacific also exterminated many species well before European explorations. Second, three factors increase the rate: (i) The number of known extinctions before 1800 is increasing as taxonomists describe new species from skeletal remains. (ii) One should calculate extinction rates over the years since taxonomists described the species. Most bird species were described only after 1850. (iii) Some species are probably extinct; there is reluctance to declare them so prematurely. Thus corrected, recent extinction rates are ≈100 E/MSY. In the last decades, the rate is <50 E/MSY, but would be 150 E/MSY were it not for conservation efforts. Increasing numbers of extinctions are on continents, whereas previously most were on islands. We predict a 21st century rate of ≈1,000 E/MSY. Extinction threatens 12% of bird species; another 12% have small geographical ranges and live where human actions rapidly destroy their habitats. If present forest losses continue, extinction rates will reach 1,500 E/MSY by the century’s end. Invasive species, expanding human technologies, and global change will harm additional species. Birds are poor models for predicting extinction rates for other taxa. Human actions threaten higher fractions of other well known taxa than they do birds. Moreover, people take special efforts to protect birds. PMID:16829570

Linking Indices for Biodiversity Monitoring to Extinction Risk Theory

PubMed Central

Mccarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

2014-01-01

Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de Extinción Resumen Los índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los índices que reflejan el riesgo de extinción serían valiosos. Desarrollamos 3 índices de biodiversidad que se basan en modelos sencillos de viabilidad de población y que relacionan el riesgo de extinción con la abundancia. Basamos el primer índice en la media geométrica de la abundancia de especies, y el segundo en una media de poder más general. En el tercer índice integramos la media geométrica y la tendencia. Estos índices requieren los mismos datos que índices previos, pero también se relacionan directamente con el riesgo de extinción. La información de campo sobre mariposas y plantas de bosque, y los estudios experimentales de comunidades protozoarias, muestran que los índices se correlacionan con las tasas locales de extinción. Al aplicar el índice basado en la media geométrica sobre los datos globales de los cambios en la abundancia de aves, sugirió que la probabilidad de extinción promedio de aves ha incrementado aproximadamente 1% desde 1970 hasta 2009. Palabras Clave Índice de biodiversidad, media geométrica, medida de la biodiversidad, riesgo de extinción PMID:24820139

How humans drive speciation as well as extinction

PubMed Central

Maron, M.

2016-01-01

A central topic for conservation science is evaluating how human activities influence global species diversity. Humanity exacerbates extinction rates. But by what mechanisms does humanity drive the emergence of new species? We review human-mediated speciation, compare speciation and known extinctions, and discuss the challenges of using net species diversity as a conservation objective. Humans drive rapid evolution through relocation, domestication, hunting and novel ecosystem creation—and emerging technologies could eventually provide additional mechanisms. The number of species relocated, domesticated and hunted during the Holocene is of comparable magnitude to the number of observed extinctions. While instances of human-mediated speciation are known, the overall effect these mechanisms have upon speciation rates has not yet been quantified. We also explore the importance of anthropogenic influence upon divergence in microorganisms. Even if human activities resulted in no net loss of species diversity by balancing speciation and extinction rates, this would probably be deemed unacceptable. We discuss why, based upon ‘no net loss’ conservation literature—considering phylogenetic diversity and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity. PMID:27358365

Hybridization and extinction.

PubMed

Todesco, Marco; Pascual, Mariana A; Owens, Gregory L; Ostevik, Katherine L; Moyers, Brook T; Hübner, Sariel; Heredia, Sylvia M; Hahn, Min A; Caseys, Celine; Bock, Dan G; Rieseberg, Loren H

2016-08-01

Hybridization may drive rare taxa to extinction through genetic swamping, where the rare form is replaced by hybrids, or by demographic swamping, where population growth rates are reduced due to the wasteful production of maladaptive hybrids. Conversely, hybridization may rescue the viability of small, inbred populations. Understanding the factors that contribute to destructive versus constructive outcomes of hybridization is key to managing conservation concerns. Here, we survey the literature for studies of hybridization and extinction to identify the ecological, evolutionary, and genetic factors that critically affect extinction risk through hybridization. We find that while extinction risk is highly situation dependent, genetic swamping is much more frequent than demographic swamping. In addition, human involvement is associated with increased risk and high reproductive isolation with reduced risk. Although climate change is predicted to increase the risk of hybridization-induced extinction, we find little empirical support for this prediction. Similarly, theoretical and experimental studies imply that genetic rescue through hybridization may be equally or more probable than demographic swamping, but our literature survey failed to support this claim. We conclude that halting the introduction of hybridization-prone exotics and restoring mature and diverse habitats that are resistant to hybrid establishment should be management priorities.

Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species.

PubMed

Feeley, Kenneth J; Silman, Miles R

2009-07-28

Estimates of the number, and preferably the identity, of species that will be threatened by land-use change and habitat loss are an invaluable tool for setting conservation priorities. Here, we use collections data and ecoregion maps to generate spatially explicit distributions for more than 40,000 vascular plant species from the Amazon basin (representing more than 80% of the estimated Amazonian plant diversity). Using the distribution maps, we then estimate the rates of habitat loss and associated extinction probabilities due to land-use changes as modeled under 2 disturbance scenarios. We predict that by 2050, human land-use practices will have reduced the habitat available to Amazonian plant species by approximately 12-24%, resulting in 5-9% of species becoming "committed to extinction," significantly fewer than other recent estimates. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the primary determinant of habitat loss and extinction risk is not the size of a species' range, but rather its location. The resulting extinction risk estimates are a valuable conservation tool because they indicate not only the total percentage of Amazonian plant species threatened with extinction but also the degree to which individual species and habitats will be affected by current and future land-use changes.

How humans drive speciation as well as extinction.

PubMed

Bull, J W; Maron, M

2016-06-29

A central topic for conservation science is evaluating how human activities influence global species diversity. Humanity exacerbates extinction rates. But by what mechanisms does humanity drive the emergence of new species? We review human-mediated speciation, compare speciation and known extinctions, and discuss the challenges of using net species diversity as a conservation objective. Humans drive rapid evolution through relocation, domestication, hunting and novel ecosystem creation-and emerging technologies could eventually provide additional mechanisms. The number of species relocated, domesticated and hunted during the Holocene is of comparable magnitude to the number of observed extinctions. While instances of human-mediated speciation are known, the overall effect these mechanisms have upon speciation rates has not yet been quantified. We also explore the importance of anthropogenic influence upon divergence in microorganisms. Even if human activities resulted in no net loss of species diversity by balancing speciation and extinction rates, this would probably be deemed unacceptable. We discuss why, based upon 'no net loss' conservation literature-considering phylogenetic diversity and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity. © 2016 The Author(s).

Do social groups prevent Allee effect related extinctions?: The case of wild dogs.

PubMed

Angulo, Elena; Rasmussen, Greg S A; Macdonald, David W; Courchamp, Franck

2013-03-15

Allee effects may arise as the number of individuals decreases, thereby reducing opportunities for cooperation and constraining individual fitness, which can lead to population decrease and extinction. Obligate cooperative breeders rely on a minimum group size to subsist and are thus expected to be particularly susceptible to Allee effects. Although Allee effects in some components of the fitness of cooperative breeders have been detected, empirical confirmation of population extinction due to Allee effects is lacking yet. Because previous studies of cooperation have focused on Allee effects affecting individual fitness (component Allee effect) and population dynamics (demographic Allee effect), we argue that a new conceptual level of Allee effect, the group Allee effect, is needed to understand the special case of cooperative breeders. We hypothesize that whilst individuals are vulnerable to Allee effects, the group could act as a buffer against population extinction if: (i) individual fitness and group fate depend on group size but not on population size and (ii) group size is independent of population size (that is, at any population size, populations comprise both large and small groups). We found that both conditions apply for the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, and data on this species in Zimbabwe support our hypothesis. The importance of groups in obligate cooperative breeders needs to be accounted for within the Allee effect framework, through a group Allee effect, because the group mediates the relationship between individual fitness and population performance. Whilst sociality is associated with a high probability of Allee effects, we suggest that cooperative individuals organized in relatively autonomous groups within populations might be behaving in ways that diminish extinction risks caused by Allee effects. This study opens new avenues to a better understanding of the role of the evolution of group-living on the probability of extinction faced by social species.

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsey, Samniqueka J; Bell, Timothy J.; McEachern, A. Kathryn; Pavlovic, Noel B.

2015-01-01

Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population-years. Using that model, 50-year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early-successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long-term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.

Competitive or weak cooperative stochastic Lotka-Volterra systems conditioned on non-extinction.

PubMed

Cattiaux, Patrick; Méléard, Sylvie

2010-06-01

We are interested in the long time behavior of a two-type density-dependent biological population conditioned on non-extinction, in both cases of competition or weak cooperation between the two species. This population is described by a stochastic Lotka-Volterra system, obtained as limit of renormalized interacting birth and death processes. The weak cooperation assumption allows the system not to blow up. We study the existence and uniqueness of a quasi-stationary distribution, that is convergence to equilibrium conditioned on non-extinction. To this aim we generalize in two-dimensions spectral tools developed for one-dimensional generalized Feller diffusion processes. The existence proof of a quasi-stationary distribution is reduced to the one for a d-dimensional Kolmogorov diffusion process under a symmetry assumption. The symmetry we need is satisfied under a local balance condition relying the ecological rates. A novelty is the outlined relation between the uniqueness of the quasi-stationary distribution and the ultracontractivity of the killed semi-group. By a comparison between the killing rates for the populations of each type and the one of the global population, we show that the quasi-stationary distribution can be either supported by individuals of one (the strongest one) type or supported by individuals of the two types. We thus highlight two different long time behaviors depending on the parameters of the model: either the model exhibits an intermediary time scale for which only one type (the dominant trait) is surviving, or there is a positive probability to have coexistence of the two species.

The transition from isolated patches to a metapopulation in the eastern collared lizard in response to prescribed fires.

PubMed

Templeton, Alan R; Brazeal, Hilary; Neuwald, Jennifer L

2011-09-01

Habitat fragmentation often arises from human-induced alterations to the matrix that reduce or eliminate dispersal between habitat patches. Elimination of dispersal increases local extinction and decreases recolonization. These phenomena were observed in the eastern collared lizard (Crotaphytus collaris collaris), which lives in the mid-continental highland region of the Ozarks (Missouri, USA) on glades: habitats of exposed bedrock that form desert-like habitats imbedded in a woodland matrix. With the onset of woodland fire suppression, glade habitats degenerated and the woodland matrix was altered to create a strong barrier to dispersal. By 1980, lizard populations in the Ozarks were rapidly going extinct. In response to this decline, some glades were restored by clearing and burning. Starting in 1984, collared lizard populations were translocated onto these restored habitats. The translocated populations persisted but did not colonize nearby glades or disperse among one another. In 1994 prescribed woodland fires were initiated, which unleashed much dispersal and colonizing behavior. Dispersal was highly nonrandom by both intrinsic variables (age, gender) and extrinsic variables (overall demography, glade population sizes, glade areas, landscape features), resulting in different classes of lizards being dominant in creating demographic cohesiveness among glades, colonizing new glades on a mountain, and colonizing new mountain systems. A dramatic transition was documented from isolated fragments, to a nonequilibrium colonizing metapopulation, and finally to a stable metapopulation. This transition is characterized by the convergence of rates of extinction and recolonization and a major alteration of dispersal probabilities and pattern in going from the nonequilibrium to stable metapopulation states.

Mass extinctions and missing matter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, R. B.

1984-01-01

The possible influence of 'invisible matter' on the solar system's comet halo, and therefore on quasi-periodic cometary bombardment of the earth and consequent mass extinctions, is briefly addressed. Invisible matter consisting of small or cold interstellar molecular clouds could significantly modulate the comet background flux, while invisible matter consisting of a large population of old, dead stars with a relatively small galactic concentration probably could not. It is also shown that the downward force exerted by the Galaxy will perturb the halo, but will not produce any periodicity.

MONSTER IN THE DARK: THE ULTRALUMINOUS GRB 080607 AND ITS DUSTY ENVIRONMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perley, D. A.; Morgan, A. N.; Miller, A. A.

2011-02-15

We present early-time optical through infrared photometry of the bright Swift gamma-ray burst (GRB) 080607, starting only 6 s following the initial trigger in the rest frame. Complemented by our previously published spectroscopy, this high-quality photometric data set allows us to solve for the extinction properties of the redshift 3.036 sightline, giving perhaps the most detailed information to date on the ultraviolet continuum absorption properties of any sightline outside our Local Group. The extinction properties are not adequately modeled by any ordinary extinction template (including the average Milky Way, Large Magellanic Cloud, and Small Magellanic Cloud curves), partially because themore » 2175 A feature (while present) is weaker by about a factor of two than when seen under similar circumstances locally. However, the spectral energy distribution is exquisitely fitted by the more general Fitzpatrick and Massa parameterization of Local-Group extinction, putting it in the same family as some peculiar Milky Way extinction curves. After correcting for this (considerable, A{sub V} = 3.3 {+-} 0.4 mag) extinction, GRB 080607 is revealed to have been among the most optically luminous events ever observed, comparable to the naked-eye burst GRB 080319B. Its early peak time (t{sub rest} < 6 s) indicates a high initial Lorentz factor ({Gamma}>600), while the extreme luminosity may be explained in part by a large circumburst density. Only because of its early high luminosity could the afterglow of GRB 080607 be studied in such detail in spite of the large attenuation and great distance, making this burst an excellent prototype for the understanding of other highly obscured extragalactic objects, and of the class of 'dark' GRBs in particular.« less

Predator Dispersal Determines the Effect of Connectivity on Prey Diversity

PubMed Central

Limberger, Romana; Wickham, Stephen A.

2011-01-01

Linking local communities to a metacommunity can positively affect diversity by enabling immigration of dispersal-limited species and maintenance of sink populations. However, connectivity can also negatively affect diversity by allowing the spread of strong competitors or predators. In a microcosm experiment with five ciliate species as prey and a copepod as an efficient generalist predator, we analysed the effect of connectivity on prey species richness in metacommunities that were either unconnected, connected for the prey, or connected for both prey and predator. Presence and absence of predator dispersal was cross-classified with low and high connectivity. The effect of connectivity on local and regional richness strongly depended on whether corridors were open for the predator. Local richness was initially positively affected by connectivity through rescue of species from stochastic extinctions. With predator dispersal, however, this positive effect soon turned negative as the predator spread over the metacommunity. Regional richness was unaffected by connectivity when local communities were connected only for the prey, while predator dispersal resulted in a pronounced decrease of regional richness. The level of connectivity influenced the speed of richness decline, with regional species extinctions being delayed for one week in weakly connected metacommunities. While connectivity enabled rescue of prey species from stochastic extinctions, deterministic extinctions due to predation were not overcome through reimmigration from predator-free refuges. Prey reimmigrating into these sink habitats appeared to be directly converted into increased predator abundance. Connectivity thus had a positive effect on the predator, even when the predator was not dispersing itself. Our study illustrates that dispersal of a species with strong negative effects on other community members shapes the dispersal-diversity relationship. When connections enable the spread of a generalist predator, positive effects of connectivity on prey species richness are outweighed by regional extinctions through predation. PMID:22194992

Dark clouds in the vicinity of the emission nebula Sh2-205: interstellar extinction and distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straižys, V.; Čepas, V.; Boyle, R. P.; Zdanavičius, J.; Maskoliūnas, M.; Kazlauskas, A.; Zdanavičius, K.; Černis, K.

2016-05-01

Results of CCD photometry in the seven-colour Vilnius system for 922 stars down to V = 16-17 mag and for 302 stars down to 19.5 mag are used to investigate the interstellar extinction in an area of 1.5 square degrees in the direction of the P7 and P8 clumps of the dark cloud TGU H942, which lies in the vicinity of the emission nebula Sh2-205. In addition, we used 662 red clump giants that were identified by combining the 2MASS and WISE infrared surveys. The resulting plots of extinction versus distance were compared with previous results of the distribution and radial velocities of CO clouds and with dust maps in different passbands of the IRAS and WISE orbiting observatories. A possible distance of the front edge of the nearest cloud layer at 130 ± 10 pc was found. This dust layer probably covers all the investigated area, which results in extinction of up to 1.8 mag in some directions. A second rise of the extinction seems to be present at 500-600 pc. Within this layer, the clumps P7 and P8 of the dust cloud TGU H942, the Sh2-205 emission nebula, and the infrared cluster FSR 655 are probably located. In the direction of these clouds, we identified 88 young stellar objects and a new infrared cluster. Full Tables 1 and 2 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/590/A21

Oblique impacts: Catastrophic vs. protracted effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.

1988-01-01

Proposed impacts as the cause of biologic catastrophes at the end of the Cretaceous and Eocene face several enigmas: protracted extinctions, even prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature; widespread but non-uniform dispersal of the meteoritic component; absence of a crater of sufficient size; and evidence for massive intensive fires. Various hypotheses provide reasonable mechanisms for mass mortalities: global cooling by continental impact sites; global warming by oceanic impact sites; contrasting effects of asteroidal, cometary, and even multiple impacts; and stress on an already fragile global environment. Yet not every known large impact is associated with a major biologic catastrophe. An alternative is expanded: the consequences of an oblique impact. The most probable angle of impact is 45 deg with the probability for an impact at smaller angles decreasing: A vertical impact is as rare as a tangential impact with a 5 deg impact angle or less occurring only 8 percent of the time. Consequently a low-angle impact is a rare but probable event. Laboratory experiments at the NASA-Ames Vertical Gun Range reveal important information about cratering efficiency, impact vaporization, projectile dispersal, and phenomenology, thereby providing perspective for possible consequences of such an impact on both the Earth and Moon. Oblique impacts are rare but certain events through geologic time: A 5 deg impact by a 2 km-diameter impactor on the Earth would occur only once in about 18 my with a 10 km-diameter once in about 450 my. Major life extinctions beginning prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature or protracted extinctions seemingly too long after the proposed event may not be evidence against an impact as a cause but evidence for a more complex but probable sequence of events.

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

PubMed

Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

2016-03-01

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species-specific information. The framework facilitates the estimation of extinction vulnerabilities of data-deficient species. It may be applied to forecast extinction vulnerability in response to a changing environment, by incorporating quantitative relationships between wildlife demographic parameters and environmental drivers like habitat alteration, climate change, or hunting.

Border Disease Virus: An Exceptional Driver of Chamois Populations Among Other Threats.

PubMed

Serrano, Emmanuel; Colom-Cadena, Andreu; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Garel, Mathieu; Cabezón, Oscar; Velarde, Roser; Fernández-Sirera, Laura; Fernández-Aguilar, Xavier; Rosell, Rosa; Lavín, Santiago; Marco, Ignasi

2015-01-01

Though it is accepted that emerging infectious diseases are a threat to planet biodiversity, little information exists about their role as drivers of species extinction. Populations are also affected by natural catastrophes and other pathogens, making it difficult to estimate the particular impact of emerging infectious diseases. Border disease virus genogroup 4 (BDV-4) caused a previously unreported decrease in populations of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) in Spain. Using a population viability analysis, we compared probabilities of extinction of a virtual chamois population affected by winter conditions, density dependence, keratoconjunctivitis, sarcoptic mange, and BD outbreaks. BD-affected populations showed double risk of becoming extinct in 50 years, confirming the exceptional ability of this virus to drive chamois populations.

Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

2017-05-01

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks.

PubMed

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B

2017-05-01

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

Stochastic foundations in nonlinear density-regulation growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Horsthemke, Werner; Campos, Daniel

2017-08-01

In this work we construct individual-based models that give rise to the generalized logistic model at the mean-field deterministic level and that allow us to interpret the parameters of these models in terms of individual interactions. We also study the effect of internal fluctuations on the long-time dynamics for the different models that have been widely used in the literature, such as the theta-logistic and Savageau models. In particular, we determine the conditions for population extinction and calculate the mean time to extinction. If the population does not become extinct, we obtain analytical expressions for the population abundance distribution. Our theoretical results are based on WKB theory and the probability generating function formalism and are verified by numerical simulations.

Marine planktonic microbes survived climatic instabilities in the past

PubMed Central

Cermeño, Pedro

2012-01-01

In the geological past, changes in climate and tectonic activity are thought to have spurred the tempo of evolutionary change among major taxonomic groups of plants and animals. However, the extent to which these historical contingencies increased the risk of extinction of microbial plankton species remains largely unknown. Here, I analyse fossil records of marine planktonic diatoms and calcareous nannoplankton over the past 65 million years from the world oceans and show that the probability of species' extinction is not correlated with secular changes in climatic instability. Further supporting these results, analyses of genera survivorship curves based on fossil data concurred with the predictions of a birth–death model that simulates the extinction of genera through time assuming stochastically constant rates of speciation and extinction. However, my results also show that these marine microbes responded to exceptional climatic contingencies in a manner that appears to have promoted net diversification. These results highlight the ability of marine planktonic microbes to survive climatic instabilities in the geological past, and point to different mechanisms underlying the processes of speciation and extinction in these micro-organisms. PMID:21775329

Recovery after local extinction: factors affecting re-establishment of alpine lake zooplankton.

PubMed

Knapp, Roland A; Sarnelle, Orlando

2008-12-01

The introduction of fishes into naturally fishless mountain lakes often results in the extirpation of large-bodied zooplankton species. The ability to predict whether or not particular species will recover following fish removal is critically important for the design and implementation of lake restoration efforts but is currently not possible because of a lack of information on what factors affect recovery. The objective of this study was to identify the factors influencing recovery probability in two large-bodied zooplankton species following fish removal. We predicted that (1) Daphnia melanica would have a higher probability of recovery than Hesperodiaptomus shoshone due to differences in reproductive mode (D. melanica is parthenogenetic, H. shoshone is obligately sexual), (2) recovery probability would be a decreasing function of fish residence time due to the negative relationship between fish residence time and size of the egg bank, and (3) recovery probability would be an increasing function of lake depth as a consequence of a positive relationship between lake depth and egg bank size. To test these predictions, we sampled contemporary zooplankton populations and collected paleolimnological data from 44 naturally fishless lakes that were stocked with trout for varying lengths of time before reverting to a fishless condition. D. melanica had a significantly higher probability of recovery than did H. shoshone (0.82 vs. 0.54, respectively). The probability of recovery for H. shoshone was also significantly influenced by lake depth, fish residence time, and elevation, but only elevation influenced the probability of recovery in D. melanica. These results are consistent with between-species differences in reproductive mode combined with the much greater longevity of diapausing eggs in D. melanica than in H. shoshone. Our data also suggest that H. shoshone will often fail to recover in lakes with fish residence times exceeding 50 years.

Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

2015-06-01

The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

Core Emergence in a Massive Infrared Dark Cloud: A Comparison between Mid-IR Extinction and 1.3 mm Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Shuo; Tan, Jonathan C.; Arce, Héctor G.; Caselli, Paola; Fontani, Francesco; Butler, Michael J.

2018-03-01

Stars are born from dense cores in molecular clouds. Observationally, it is crucial to capture the formation of cores in order to understand the necessary conditions and rate of the star formation process. The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) is extremely powerful for identifying dense gas structures, including cores, at millimeter wavelengths via their dust continuum emission. Here, we use ALMA to carry out a survey of dense gas and cores in the central region of the massive (∼105 M ⊙) infrared dark cloud (IRDC) G28.37+0.07. The observation consists of a mosaic of 86 pointings of the 12 m array and produces an unprecedented view of the densest structures of this IRDC. In this first Letter about this data set, we focus on a comparison between the 1.3 mm continuum emission and a mid-infrared (MIR) extinction map of the IRDC. This allows estimation of the “dense gas” detection probability function (DPF), i.e., as a function of the local mass surface density, Σ, for various choices of thresholds of millimeter continuum emission to define “dense gas.” We then estimate the dense gas mass fraction, f dg, in the central region of the IRDC and, via extrapolation with the DPF and the known Σ probability distribution function, to the larger-scale surrounding regions, finding values of about 5% to 15% for the fiducial choice of threshold. We argue that this observed dense gas is a good tracer of the protostellar core population and, in this context, estimate a star formation efficiency per free-fall time in the central IRDC region of ɛ ff ∼ 10%, with approximately a factor of two systematic uncertainties.

Red List of beetles of the Wadden Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, V.; Suikat, R.; Aßmann, Th.

1996-10-01

As no data on beetles in the Wadden Sea area are available from The Netherlands, the trilateral status of threat only refers to the Danish and German part of the Wadden Sea. In this area, in total, 238 species of beetles are threatened in at least one subregion. Of these, 189 species are threatened in the entire area and are therefore placed on the trilateral Red List. 4 species are (probably) extinct in the entire Wadden Sea area. The status of 24 species of beetles is (probably) critical, 46 species are (probably) endangered, the status of 86 species is (probably) vulnerable and of 29 species (probably) susceptible.

Estimating extinction using unsupervised machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meingast, Stefan; Lombardi, Marco; Alves, João

2017-05-01

Dust extinction is the most robust tracer of the gas distribution in the interstellar medium, but measuring extinction is limited by the systematic uncertainties involved in estimating the intrinsic colors to background stars. In this paper we present a new technique, Pnicer, that estimates intrinsic colors and extinction for individual stars using unsupervised machine learning algorithms. This new method aims to be free from any priors with respect to the column density and intrinsic color distribution. It is applicable to any combination of parameters and works in arbitrary numbers of dimensions. Furthermore, it is not restricted to color space. Extinction toward single sources is determined by fitting Gaussian mixture models along the extinction vector to (extinction-free) control field observations. In this way it becomes possible to describe the extinction for observed sources with probability densities, rather than a single value. Pnicer effectively eliminates known biases found in similar methods and outperforms them in cases of deep observational data where the number of background galaxies is significant, or when a large number of parameters is used to break degeneracies in the intrinsic color distributions. This new method remains computationally competitive, making it possible to correctly de-redden millions of sources within a matter of seconds. With the ever-increasing number of large-scale high-sensitivity imaging surveys, Pnicer offers a fast and reliable way to efficiently calculate extinction for arbitrary parameter combinations without prior information on source characteristics. The Pnicer software package also offers access to the well-established Nicer technique in a simple unified interface and is capable of building extinction maps including the Nicest correction for cloud substructure. Pnicer is offered to the community as an open-source software solution and is entirely written in Python.

Global attractors and extinction dynamics of cyclically competing species.

PubMed

Rulands, Steffen; Zielinski, Alejandro; Frey, Erwin

2013-05-01

Transitions to absorbing states are of fundamental importance in nonequilibrium physics as well as ecology. In ecology, absorbing states correspond to the extinction of species. We here study the spatial population dynamics of three cyclically interacting species. The interaction scheme comprises both direct competition between species as in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, and separated selection and reproduction processes as in the May-Leonard model. We show that the dynamic processes leading to the transient maintenance of biodiversity are closely linked to attractors of the nonlinear dynamics for the overall species' concentrations. The characteristics of these global attractors change qualitatively at certain threshold values of the mobility and depend on the relative strength of the different types of competition between species. They give information about the scaling of extinction times with the system size and thereby the stability of biodiversity. We define an effective free energy as the negative logarithm of the probability to find the system in a specific global state before reaching one of the absorbing states. The global attractors then correspond to minima of this effective energy landscape and determine the most probable values for the species' global concentrations. As in equilibrium thermodynamics, qualitative changes in the effective free energy landscape indicate and characterize the underlying nonequilibrium phase transitions. We provide the complete phase diagrams for the population dynamics and give a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics and routes to extinction in the respective phases.

Biological review of 82 species of coral petitioned to be included in the Endangered Species Act

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brainard, Russell E.; Birkeland, Charles; Eakin, C. Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W.; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, G.A.

2011-01-01

The BRT considered two major factors in conducting this review. The first factor was the interaction of natural phenomena and anthropogenic stressors that could potentially contribute to coral extinction. After extensive review of available scientific information, the BRT considers ocean warming, disease, and ocean acidification to be the most influential threats in posing extinction risks to the 82 candidate coral species between now and the year 2100. Threats of local origin but having widespread impact, such as sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and fishing, were considered of medium importance in determining extinction risks. It is acknowledged that many other threats (e.g., physical damage from storms or ship groundings, invasive species or predator outbreaks, collection and trade) also negatively affect corals, often acutely and dramatically, but generally at relatively small local scales. These local threats were considered to be of limited scope and not deemed to contribute appreciably to the risk of species extinction, except in those special cases where species have restricted geographic or habitat ranges or species have already undergone precipitous population declines such that these local threats further contribute to depensatory processes that can magnify extinction risks (e.g., feedback-loops whereby individual survival decreases with smaller population size). The BRT acknowledges that local and global threats operate on different time scales and, though there is high confidence in the general progression of some key global threats, such as ocean warming and ocean acidification, there is much less certainty in the timing and spatial patterns of these threats. There is also substantial uncertainty in the abilities of the 82 candidate coral species to tolerate or adapt to each of the threats examined, as well as uncertainty in the dynamics of multiple simultaneous stresses. The BRT specifically identified increasing human population levels and the intensity of their collective human consumption as the root drivers of almost all global and local threats to coral species. In evaluating future threat impacts, the BRT attempted to project current trends, without assumptions of future policy changes or technological advances that could potentially alter the projections used in this analysis.

The fossil record and macroevolutionary history of the beetles

PubMed Central

Smith, Dena M.; Marcot, Jonathan D.

2015-01-01

Coleoptera (beetles) is the most species-rich metazoan order, with approximately 380 000 species. To understand how they came to be such a diverse group, we compile a database of global fossil beetle occurrences to study their macroevolutionary history. Our database includes 5553 beetle occurrences from 221 fossil localities. Amber and lacustrine deposits preserve most of the beetle diversity and abundance. All four extant suborders are found in the fossil record, with 69% of all beetle families and 63% of extant beetle families preserved. Considerable focus has been placed on beetle diversification overall, however, for much of their evolutionary history it is the clade Polyphaga that is most responsible for their taxonomic richness. Polyphaga had an increase in diversification rate in the Early Cretaceous, but instead of being due to the radiation of the angiosperms, this was probably due to the first occurrences of beetle-bearing amber deposits in the record. Perhaps, most significant is that polyphagan beetles had a family-level extinction rate of zero for most of their evolutionary history, including across the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary. Therefore, focusing on the factors that have inhibited beetle extinction, as opposed to solely studying mechanisms that may promote speciation, should be examined as important determinants of their great diversity today. PMID:25788597

Intermediate disturbance in experimental landscapes improves persistence of beetle metapopulations.

PubMed

Govindan, Byju N; Feng, Zhilan; DeWoody, Yssa D; Swihart, Robert K

2015-03-01

Human-dominated landscapes often feature patches that fluctuate in suitability through space and time, but there is little experimental evidence relating the consequences of dynamic patches for species persistence. We used a spatially and temporally dynamic metapopulation model to assess and compare metapopulation capacity and persistence for red flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) in experimental landscapes differentiated by resource structure, patch dynamics (destruction and restoration), and connectivity. High connectivity increased the colonization rate of beetles, but this effect was less pronounced in heterogeneous relative to homogeneous landscapes. Higher connectivity and faster patch dynamics increased extinction rates in landscapes. Lower connectivity promoted density-dependent emigration. Heterogeneous landscapes containing patches of different carrying capacity enhanced landscape-level occupancy probability. The highest metapopulation capacity and persistence was observed in landscapes with heterogeneous patches, low connectivity, and slow patch dynamics. Control landscapes with no patch dynamics exhibited rapid declines in abundance and approached extinction due to increased adult mortality in the matrix, higher pupal cannibalism by adults, and extremely low rates of exchange between remaining habitable patches. Our results highlight the role of intermediate patch dynamics, intermediate connectivity, and the nature of density dependence of emigration for persistence of species in heterogeneous landscapes. Our results also demonstrate the importance of incorporating local dynamics into the estimation of metapopulation capacity for conservation planning.

The Initial Mass Function of the Arches Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosek, Matthew; Lu, Jessica; Anderson, Jay; Ghez, Andrea; Morris, Mark; Do, Tuan; Clarkson, William; Albers, Saundra; Weisz, Daniel

2018-01-01

The Arches star cluster is only 26 pc (in projection) from Sgr A*, the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center. This young massive cluster allows us to examine the impact of the extreme Galactic Center environment on the stellar Initial Mass Function (IMF). However, measuring the IMF of the Arches is challenging due to the highly variable extinction along the line of sight, which makes it difficult to separate cluster members from the field stars. We use high-precision proper motion and photometric measurements obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope to calculate cluster membership probabilities for stars down to ~2 M_sun out to the outskirts of the cluster (3 pc). In addition, we measure the effective temperatures of a small sample of cluster members in order to calibrate the mass-luminosity relationship using using Keck OSIRS K-band spectroscopy. We forward model these observations to simultaneously constrain the cluster IMF, age, distance, and extinction. We obtain an IMF that is shallower than what is observed locally, with a higher fraction of high-mass stars to low mass stars (i.e., “top-heavy”). We will compare the IMF of the Arches to similar clusters in the Galactic disk and quantify the effect of the GC environment on the star formation process.

The relation between carbon monoxide emission and visual extinction in cloud L134

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, K. D.; Dickman, R. L.; Encrenaz, P. J.; Kutner, M. L.

1976-01-01

Emission from the J = 1-0 transition of carbon monoxide has been mapped over an area of 40 by 55 arcmin in cloud L134, and visual extinctions over the entire cloud have been obtained by means of star counts. Line intensities of at least 2 K are observable down to an extinction level of about one magnitude. From observations of the J = 1-0 transition of the (C-13)O isotopic species at 18 locations in the cloud, a linear correlation is found between the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) column densities of (C-13)O and magnitudes of visual extinction.

UV extinction properties of carina nebular dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massa, Derck

1993-01-01

I have performed an analysis of the UV extinction by dust along the line of sight to the young open cluster Tr 16. The observed curves are parameterized in order to extract quantitative information about the structure of the curves. Furthermore, by constructing differential extinction curves, obtained by differencing curves for stars which lie within a few arc seconds of each other on the sky, I was able to obtain a curve which is free of the effects of foreground extinction, and represents the extinction by the dust in the Tr 16 molecular cloud. I then show that this curve is nearly identical to one due to dust in the Orion molecular cloud. This result shows that dust in the Carina arm exhibits the same behavior as that in the local arm.

Increased prefrontal cortex neurogranin enhances plasticity and extinction learning.

PubMed

Zhong, Ling; Brown, Joshua; Kramer, Audra; Kaleka, Kanwardeep; Petersen, Amber; Krueger, Jamie N; Florence, Matthew; Muelbl, Matthew J; Battle, Michelle; Murphy, Geoffrey G; Olsen, Christopher M; Gerges, Nashaat Z

2015-05-13

Increasing plasticity in neurons of the prefrontal cortex (PFC) has been proposed as a possible therapeutic tool to enhance extinction, a process that is impaired in post-traumatic stress disorder, schizophrenia, and addiction. To test this hypothesis, we generated transgenic mice that overexpress neurogranin (a calmodulin-binding protein that facilitates long-term potentiation) in the PFC. Neurogranin overexpression in the PFC enhanced long-term potentiation and increased the rates of extinction learning of both fear conditioning and sucrose self-administration. Our results indicate that elevated neurogranin function within the PFC can enhance local plasticity and increase the rate of extinction learning across different behavioral tasks. Thus, neurogranin can provide a molecular link between enhanced plasticity and enhanced extinction. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/357503-06$15.00/0.

Pre- versus post-mass extinction divergence of Mesozoic marine reptiles dictated by time-scale dependence of evolutionary rates.

PubMed

Motani, Ryosuke; Jiang, Da-Yong; Tintori, Andrea; Ji, Cheng; Huang, Jian-Dong

2017-05-17

The fossil record of a major clade often starts after a mass extinction even though evolutionary rates, molecular or morphological, suggest its pre-extinction emergence (e.g. squamates, placentals and teleosts). The discrepancy is larger for older clades, and the presence of a time-scale-dependent methodological bias has been suggested, yet it has been difficult to avoid the bias using Bayesian phylogenetic methods. This paradox raises the question of whether ecological vacancies, such as those after mass extinctions, prompt the radiations. We addressed this problem by using a unique temporal characteristic of the morphological data and a high-resolution stratigraphic record, for the oldest clade of Mesozoic marine reptiles, Ichthyosauromorpha. The evolutionary rate was fastest during the first few million years of ichthyosauromorph evolution and became progressively slower over time, eventually becoming six times slower. Using the later slower rates, estimates of divergence time become excessively older. The fast, initial rate suggests the emergence of ichthyosauromorphs after the end-Permian mass extinction, matching an independent result from high-resolution stratigraphic confidence intervals. These reptiles probably invaded the sea as a new ecosystem was formed after the end-Permian mass extinction. Lack of information on early evolution biased Bayesian clock rates. © 2017 The Author(s).

Pre- versus post-mass extinction divergence of Mesozoic marine reptiles dictated by time-scale dependence of evolutionary rates

PubMed Central

Ji, Cheng; Huang, Jian-dong

2017-01-01

The fossil record of a major clade often starts after a mass extinction even though evolutionary rates, molecular or morphological, suggest its pre-extinction emergence (e.g. squamates, placentals and teleosts). The discrepancy is larger for older clades, and the presence of a time-scale-dependent methodological bias has been suggested, yet it has been difficult to avoid the bias using Bayesian phylogenetic methods. This paradox raises the question of whether ecological vacancies, such as those after mass extinctions, prompt the radiations. We addressed this problem by using a unique temporal characteristic of the morphological data and a high-resolution stratigraphic record, for the oldest clade of Mesozoic marine reptiles, Ichthyosauromorpha. The evolutionary rate was fastest during the first few million years of ichthyosauromorph evolution and became progressively slower over time, eventually becoming six times slower. Using the later slower rates, estimates of divergence time become excessively older. The fast, initial rate suggests the emergence of ichthyosauromorphs after the end-Permian mass extinction, matching an independent result from high-resolution stratigraphic confidence intervals. These reptiles probably invaded the sea as a new ecosystem was formed after the end-Permian mass extinction. Lack of information on early evolution biased Bayesian clock rates. PMID:28515201

Curvature of the localized surface plasmon resonance peak.

PubMed

Chen, Peng; Liedberg, Bo

2014-08-05

Localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) occurring in noble metal nanoparticles (e.g., Au) is a widely used phenomenon to report molecular interactions. Traditional LSPR sensors typically monitor shifts in the peak position or extinction in response to local refractive index changes in the close vicinity of the nanoparticle surface. The ability to resolve minute shifts/extinction changes is to a large extent limited by instrumental noise. A new strategy to evaluate LSPR responses utilizing changes in the shape of the extinction spectrum (the curvature) is proposed. The response of curvature to refractive index changes is investigated theoretically using Mie theory and an analytical expression relating the curvature to the refractive index is presented. The experimentally derived curvatures for 13 nm spherical gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) exposed to solvents with different bulk refractive indices confirm the theoretical predictions. Moreover, both the calculated and experimental findings suggest that the curvature is approximately a linear function of refractive index in regimes relevant to bio and chemical sensing. We demonstrate that curvature is superior over peak shift and extinction both in terms of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio and reliability of LSPR sensors. With a curvature, one could readily monitor submonolayer adsorption of a low molecular weight thiol molecule (M(w) = 458.6) onto 13 nm AuNPs. It is also worthwhile mentioning that curvature is virtually insensitive to instrumental instabilities and artifacts occurring during measurement. Instabilities such as baseline tilt and shift, shift in peak position as well as sharp spikes/steps in the extinction spectra do not induce artifacts in the sensorgrams of curvature.

Double jeopardy and global extinction risk in corals and reef fishes.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Bellwood, David R; Connolly, Sean R; Cornell, Howard V; Karlson, Ronald H

2014-12-15

Coral reefs are critically important ecosystems that support the food security and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people in maritime tropical countries, yet they are increasingly threatened by overfishing, coastal pollution, climate change, and other anthropogenic impacts, leading to concerns that some species may be threatened with local or even global extinction. The concept of double jeopardy proposes that the risk of species extinction is elevated if species that are endemic (small range) are also scarce (low local abundance). Traditionally, marine macroecology has been founded on patterns of species richness and presence-absence data, which provide no information on species abundances or on the prevalence of double jeopardy. Here we quantify the abundances of >400 species of corals and fishes along one of the world's major marine biodiversity gradients, from the Coral Triangle hotspot to French Polynesia, a distance of approximately 10,000 km. In contrast to classical terrestrial studies, we find that the abundance of these species bears no relationship to the size of their geographic ranges. Consequently, double jeopardy is uncommon because endemics are often locally abundant, and conversely many pandemics are rare. The Coral Triangle hotspot has more numerically rare species (both endemic and pandemic) but also encompasses more species with intermediate and higher abundances. We conclude that conservation efforts in the sea should focus less on extinction risk and more on maintaining and rebuilding key ecological functions that are highly vulnerable to human pressures, even if species can avoid extinction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

2014-07-01

The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)—viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells—is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule.

Geological implications of impacts of large asteroids and comets on the earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silver, L. T. (Editor); Schultz, P. H. (Editor)

1982-01-01

The present conference discusses such topics as large object fluxes in near-earth space and the probabilities of terrestrial impacts, the geological record of impacts, dynamics modeling for large body impacts on continents and oceans, physical, chemical, and biological models of large impacts' atmospheric effects, dispersed impact ejecta and their signatures, general considerations concerning mass biological extinctions, the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, geochemical signatures in the stratigraphic record, and other phanerozoic events. Attention is given to terrestrial impact rates for long- and short-period comets, estimates of crater size for large body impact, a first-order estimate of shock heating and vaporization in oceanic impacts, atmospheric effects in the first few minutes after an impact, a feasibility test for biogeographic extinction, and the planktonic and dinosaur extinctions.

Impact Theory of Mass Extinctions and the Invertebrate Fossil Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, Walter; Kauffman, Erle G.; Surlyk, Finn; Alvarez, Luis W.; Asaro, Frank; Michel, Helen V.

1984-03-01

There is much evidence that the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary was marked by a massive meteorite impact. Theoretical consideration of the consequences of such an impact predicts sharp extinctions in many groups of animals precisely at the boundary. Paleontological data clearly show gradual declines in diversity over the last 1 to 10 million years in various invertebrate groups. Reexamination of data from careful studies of the best sections shows that, in addition to undergoing the decline, four groups (ammonites, cheilostomate bryozoans, brachiopods, and bivalves) were affected by sudden truncations precisely at the iridium anomaly that marks the boundary. The paleontological record thus bears witness to terminal-Cretaceous extinctions on two time scales: a slow decline unrelated to the impact and a sharp truncation synchronous with and probably caused by the impact.

Bet-hedging applications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyce, M.S.; Kirsch, E.M.; Servheen, C.

2002-01-01

One of the early tenets of conservation biology is that population viability is enhanced by maintaining multiple populations of a species. The strength of this tenet is justified by principles of bet-hedging. Management strategies that reduce variance in population size will also reduce risk of extinction. Asynchrony in population fluctuations in independent populations reduces variance in the aggregate of populations whereas environmental correlation among areas increases the risk that all populations will go extinct. We review the theoretical rationale of bet-hedging and suggest applications for conservation management of least terns in Nebraska and grizzly bears in the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. The risk of extinction for least terns will be reduced if we can sustain the small central Platte River population in addition to the larger population on the lower Platte. Similarly, by restoring grizzly bears to the Bitterroot wilderness of Idaho and Montana can reduce the probability of extinction for grizzly bears in the Rocky Mountains of the United States by as much as 69-93%.

Enhancement of large fluctuations to extinction in adaptive networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.; Shaw, Leah B.

2018-01-01

During an epidemic, individual nodes in a network may adapt their connections to reduce the chance of infection. A common form of adaption is avoidance rewiring, where a noninfected node breaks a connection to an infected neighbor and forms a new connection to another noninfected node. Here we explore the effects of such adaptivity on stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, focusing on the largest fluctuations that result in extinction of infection. Using techniques from large-deviation theory, combined with a measurement of heterogeneity in the susceptible degree distribution at the endemic state, we are able to predict and analyze large fluctuations and extinction in adaptive networks. We find that in the limit of small rewiring there is a sharp exponential reduction in mean extinction times compared to the case of zero adaption. Furthermore, we find an exponential enhancement in the probability of large fluctuations with increased rewiring rate, even when holding the average number of infected nodes constant.

Extinction in neutrally stable stochastic Lotka-Volterra models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrinevski, Alexander; Frey, Erwin

2012-05-01

Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes leading to extinction of species, whose understanding is a key component in the study of evolution and biodiversity, are influenced by both of these factors. Here, we investigate a class of stochastic population dynamics models based on generalized Lotka-Volterra systems. In the case of neutral stability of the underlying deterministic model, the impact of intrinsic noise on the survival of species is dramatic: It destroys coexistence of interacting species on a time scale proportional to the population size. We introduce a new method based on stochastic averaging which allows one to understand this extinction process quantitatively by reduction to a lower-dimensional effective dynamics. This is performed analytically for two highly symmetrical models and can be generalized numerically to more complex situations. The extinction probability distributions and other quantities of interest we obtain show excellent agreement with simulations.

Extinction in neutrally stable stochastic Lotka-Volterra models.

PubMed

Dobrinevski, Alexander; Frey, Erwin

2012-05-01

Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes leading to extinction of species, whose understanding is a key component in the study of evolution and biodiversity, are influenced by both of these factors. Here, we investigate a class of stochastic population dynamics models based on generalized Lotka-Volterra systems. In the case of neutral stability of the underlying deterministic model, the impact of intrinsic noise on the survival of species is dramatic: It destroys coexistence of interacting species on a time scale proportional to the population size. We introduce a new method based on stochastic averaging which allows one to understand this extinction process quantitatively by reduction to a lower-dimensional effective dynamics. This is performed analytically for two highly symmetrical models and can be generalized numerically to more complex situations. The extinction probability distributions and other quantities of interest we obtain show excellent agreement with simulations.

Antibiotic-induced population fluctuations and stochastic clearance of bacteria

PubMed Central

Le, Dai; Şimşek, Emrah; Chaudhry, Waqas

2018-01-01

Effective antibiotic use that minimizes treatment failures remains a challenge. A better understanding of how bacterial populations respond to antibiotics is necessary. Previous studies of large bacterial populations established the deterministic framework of pharmacodynamics. Here, characterizing the dynamics of population extinction, we demonstrated the stochastic nature of eradicating bacteria with antibiotics. Antibiotics known to kill bacteria (bactericidal) induced population fluctuations. Thus, at high antibiotic concentrations, the dynamics of bacterial clearance were heterogeneous. At low concentrations, clearance still occurred with a non-zero probability. These striking outcomes of population fluctuations were well captured by our probabilistic model. Our model further suggested a strategy to facilitate eradication by increasing extinction probability. We experimentally tested this prediction for antibiotic-susceptible and clinically-isolated resistant bacteria. This new knowledge exposes fundamental limits in our ability to predict bacterial eradication. Additionally, it demonstrates the potential of using antibiotic concentrations that were previously deemed inefficacious to eradicate bacteria. PMID:29508699

Projected risk of population declines for native fish species in the Upper Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, S.M.; Boma, P.; Thogmartin, W.E.

2015-01-01

Conservationists are in need of objective metrics for prioritizing the management of habitats. For individual species, the threat of extinction is often used to prioritize what species are in need of conservation action. Using long-term monitoring data, we applied a Bayesian diffusion approximation to estimate quasi-extinction risk for 54 native fish species within six commercial navigation reaches along a 1350-km gradient of the upper Mississippi River system. We found a strong negative linear relationship between quasi-extinction risk and distance upstream. For some species, quasi-extinction estimates ranged from nearly zero in some reaches to one in others, suggesting substantial variability in threats facing individual river reaches. We found no evidence that species traits affected quasi-extinction risk across the entire system. Our results indicate that fishes within the upper Mississippi River system face localized threats that vary across river impact gradients. This suggests that conservation actions should be focused on local habitat scales but should also consider the additive effects on downstream conditions. We also emphasize the need for identification of proximate mechanisms behind observed and predicted population declines, as conservation actions will require mitigation of such mechanisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion.

PubMed

Lee, Tamsin E; Black, Simon A; Fellous, Amina; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Angelici, Francesco M; Al Hikmani, Hadi; Reed, J Michael; Elphick, Chris S; Roberts, David L

2015-01-01

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model. We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian.

Thermal Transgressions and Phanerozoic Extinctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worsley, T. R.; Kidder, D. L.

2007-12-01

A number of significant Phanerozoic extinctions are associated with marine transgressions that were probably driven by rapid ocean warming. The conditions associated with what we call thermal transgressions are extremely stressful to life on Earth. The Earth system setting associated with end-Permian extinction exemplifies an end-member case of our model. The conditions favoring extreme warmth and sea-level increases driven by thermal expansion are also conducive to changes in ocean circulation that foster widespread anoxia and sulfidic subsurface ocean waters. Equable climates are characterized by reduced wind shear and weak surface ocean circulation. Late Permian and Early Triassic thermohaline circulation differs considerably from today's world, with minimal polar sinking and intensified mid-latitude sinking that delivers sulfate from shallow evaporative areas to deeper water where it is reduced to sulfide. Reduced nutrient input to oceans from land at many of the extinction intervals results from diminished silicate weathering and weakened delivery of iron via eolian dust. The falloff in iron-bearing dust leads to minimal nitrate production, weakening food webs and rendering faunas and floras more susceptible to extinction when stressed. Factors such as heat, anoxia, ocean acidification, hypercapnia, and hydrogen sulfide poisoning would significantly affect these biotas. Intervals of tectonic quiescence set up preconditions favoring extinctions. Reductions in chemical silicate weathering lead to carbon dioxide buildup, oxygen drawdown, nutrient depletion, wind and ocean current abatement, long-term global warming, and ocean acidification. The effects of extinction triggers such as large igneous provinces, bolide impacts, and episodes of sudden methane release are more potent against the backdrop of our proposed preconditions. Extinctions that have characteristics we call for in the thermal transgressions include the Early Cambrian Sinsk event, as well as extinction events at the Frasnian-Famennian, end-Devonian, end Permian, Early Toarcian, Cenomanian-Turonian, and end Cretaceous. The Late Paleocene and end Triassic extinctions are still under evaluation. The extinctions associated with the glacio-eustatic sea-level change in the Late Ordovician are not consistent with the conditions of our model.

US cities can manage national hydrology and biodiversity using local infrastructure policy.

PubMed

McManamay, Ryan A; Surendran Nair, Sujithkumar; DeRolph, Christopher R; Ruddell, Benjamin L; Morton, April M; Stewart, Robert N; Troia, Matthew J; Tran, Liem; Kim, Hyun; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2017-09-05

Cities are concentrations of sociopolitical power and prime architects of land transformation, while also serving as consumption hubs of "hard" water and energy infrastructures. These infrastructures extend well outside metropolitan boundaries and impact distal river ecosystems. We used a comprehensive model to quantify the roles of anthropogenic stressors on hydrologic alteration and biodiversity in US streams and isolate the impacts stemming from hard infrastructure developments in cities. Across the contiguous United States, cities' hard infrastructures have significantly altered at least 7% of streams, which influence habitats for over 60% of North America's fish, mussel, and crayfish species. Additionally, city infrastructures have contributed to local extinctions in 260 species and currently influence 970 indigenous species, 27% of which are in jeopardy. We find that ecosystem impacts do not scale with city size but are instead proportionate to infrastructure decisions. For example, Atlanta's impacts by hard infrastructures extend across four major river basins, 12,500 stream km, and contribute to 100 local extinctions of aquatic species. In contrast, Las Vegas, a similar size city, impacts <1,000 stream km, leading to only seven local extinctions. So, cities have local policy choices that can reduce future impacts to regional aquatic ecosystems as they grow. By coordinating policy and communication between hard infrastructure sectors, local city governments and utilities can directly improve environmental quality in a significant fraction of the nation's streams reaching far beyond their city boundaries.

Does the seed bank contribute to the build-up of a genetic extinction debt in the grassland perennial Campanula rotundifolia?

PubMed

Plue, Jan; Vandepitte, Katrien; Honnay, Olivier; Cousins, Sara A O

2017-09-01

Habitat fragmentation threatens global biodiversity. Many plant species persist in habitat fragments via persistent life cycle stages such as seed banks, generating a species extinction debt. Here, seed banks are hypothesized to cause a temporal delay in the expected loss of genetic variation, which can be referred to as a genetic extinction debt, as a possible mechanism behind species extinction debts. Fragmented grassland populations of Campanula rotundifolia were examined for evidence of a genetic extinction debt, investigating if the seed bank contributed to the extinction debt build-up. The genetic make-up of 15 above- and below-ground populations was analysed in relation to historical and current levels of habitat fragmentation, both separately and combined. Genetic diversity was highest in above-ground populations, though below-ground populations contained 8 % of unique alleles that were absent above-ground. Above-ground genetic diversity and composition were related to historical patch size and connectivity, but not current patch characteristics, suggesting the presence of a genetic extinction debt in the above-ground populations. No such relationships were found for the below-ground populations. Genetic diversity measures still showed a response to historical but not present landscape characteristics when combining genetic diversity of the above- and below-ground populations. The fragmented C. rotundifolia populations exhibited a genetic extinction debt. However, the role of the seed banks in the build-up of this extinction debt is probably small, since the limited, unique genetic diversity of the seed bank alone seems unable to counter the detrimental effects of habitat fragmentation on the population genetic structure of C. rotundifolia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles Brandon; Reid, Janice; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Davis, Raymond; Forsman, Eric

2014-01-01

The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading (barred owl: Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern spotted owl: Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000 km2 study area over a 22 - year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multiseason analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyze survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multiseason occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling - allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We find that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern spotted owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species both through its immediate effects on local extinction, and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as Northern spotted owl occupancy declines. Our analysis suggests that dispersal limitation affects both the invasion dynamics and the scale at which the effects of competition are observed. We also provide predictions regarding the potential costs and benefits of managing barred owl populations at different target levels.

Long-Term Occupancy Trends in a Data-Poor Dugong Population in the Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago

PubMed Central

D’Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

2013-01-01

Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959–2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010–2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting. PMID:24143180

Late-surviving megafauna in Tasmania, Australia, implicate human involvement in their extinction.

PubMed

Turney, Chris S M; Flannery, Timothy F; Roberts, Richard G; Reid, Craig; Fifield, L Keith; Higham, Tom F G; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kemp, Noel; Colhoun, Eric A; Kalin, Robert M; Ogle, Neil

2008-08-26

Establishing the cause of past extinctions is critical if we are to understand better what might trigger future occurrences and how to prevent them. The mechanisms of continental late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction, however, are still fiercely contested. Potential factors contributing to their demise include climatic change, human impact, or some combination. On the Australian mainland, 90% of the megafauna became extinct by approximately 46 thousand years (ka) ago, soon after the first archaeological evidence for human colonization of the continent. Yet, on the neighboring island of Tasmania (which was connected to the mainland when sea levels were lower), megafaunal extinction appears to have taken place before the initial human arrival between 43 and 40 ka, which would seem to exonerate people as a contributing factor in the extirpation of the island megafauna. Age estimates for the last megafauna, however, are poorly constrained. Here, we show, by direct dating of fossil remains and their associated sediments, that some Tasmanian megafauna survived until at least 41 ka (i.e., after their extinction on the Australian mainland) and thus overlapped with humans. Furthermore, a vegetation record for Tasmania spanning the last 130 ka shows that no significant regional climatic or environmental change occurred between 43 and 37 ka, when a land bridge existed between Tasmania and the mainland. Our results are consistent with a model of human-induced extinction for the Tasmanian megafauna, most probably driven by hunting, and they reaffirm the value of islands adjacent to continental landmasses as tests of competing hypotheses for late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions.

Late-surviving megafauna in Tasmania, Australia, implicate human involvement in their extinction

PubMed Central

Turney, Chris S. M.; Flannery, Timothy F.; Roberts, Richard G.; Reid, Craig; Fifield, L. Keith; Higham, Tom F. G.; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kemp, Noel; Colhoun, Eric A.; Kalin, Robert M.; Ogle, Neil

2008-01-01

Establishing the cause of past extinctions is critical if we are to understand better what might trigger future occurrences and how to prevent them. The mechanisms of continental late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction, however, are still fiercely contested. Potential factors contributing to their demise include climatic change, human impact, or some combination. On the Australian mainland, 90% of the megafauna became extinct by ≈46 thousand years (ka) ago, soon after the first archaeological evidence for human colonization of the continent. Yet, on the neighboring island of Tasmania (which was connected to the mainland when sea levels were lower), megafaunal extinction appears to have taken place before the initial human arrival between 43 and 40 ka, which would seem to exonerate people as a contributing factor in the extirpation of the island megafauna. Age estimates for the last megafauna, however, are poorly constrained. Here, we show, by direct dating of fossil remains and their associated sediments, that some Tasmanian megafauna survived until at least 41 ka (i.e., after their extinction on the Australian mainland) and thus overlapped with humans. Furthermore, a vegetation record for Tasmania spanning the last 130 ka shows that no significant regional climatic or environmental change occurred between 43 and 37 ka, when a land bridge existed between Tasmania and the mainland. Our results are consistent with a model of human-induced extinction for the Tasmanian megafauna, most probably driven by hunting, and they reaffirm the value of islands adjacent to continental landmasses as tests of competing hypotheses for late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions. PMID:18719103

What is extinguished in auditory extinction?

PubMed

Deouell, L Y; Soroker, N

2000-09-11

Extinction is a frequent sequel of brain damage, whereupon patients disregard (extinguish) a contralesional stimulus, and report only the more ipsilesional stimulus, of a pair of stimuli presented simultaneously. We investigated the possibility of a dissociation between the detection and the identification of extinguished phonemes. Fourteen right hemisphere damaged patients with severe auditory extinction were examined using a paradigm that separated the localization of stimuli and the identification of their phonetic content. Patients reported the identity of left-sided phonemes, while extinguishing them at the same time, in the traditional sense of the term. This dissociation suggests that auditory extinction is more about acknowledging the existence of a stimulus in the contralesional hemispace than about the actual processing of the stimulus.

Did a Gamma-Ray Burst Initiate the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melott, A. L.; Lieberman, B. S.; Laird, C. M.; Martin, L. D.; Medvedov, M. V.; Thomas, B. C.; Cannizzo, J. K.; Gehrels, N.; Jackman, C. H.

2004-01-01

Gamma-ray bursts (hereafter GRB) produce a flux of radiation detectable across the observable Universe. A GRB within our own galaxy could do considerable damage to the Earth's biosphere; rate estimates suggest that a dangerously near GRB should occur on average several times per billion years. At leastfive times in the history of lfe, the Earth experienced mass extinctions that eliminated a large percentage of the biota. Many possible causes have been documented, and GRB may also have contributed. The late Ordovician mass extinction approximately 440 million years ago may be at least partly the result of a GRB. Due to severe depletion of the ozone layer, intense solar ultraviolet radiation is expected to result from a nearby GRB, and some of the patterns of extinction and survivorship at this time may be attributable to elevated levels of UV radiation reaching the Earth. In addition a GRB could trigger the global cooling which occurs at the end of the Ordovician period that follows an interval of relatively warm climate. Intense rapid cooling and glaciation at that time, previously identijied as the probable cause of this mass extinction, may have resultedfiom a GRB.

A new species of extinct scops owl (Aves: Strigiformes: Strigidae: Otus) from São Miguel Island (Azores Archipelago, North Atlantic Ocean).

PubMed

Rando, Juan Carlos; Alcover, Josep Antoni; Olson, Storrs L; Pieper, Harald

2013-01-01

The extinct São Miguel Scops Owl Otusfrutuosoi n. sp. is described from fossil bones found in Gruta de Água de Pau, a volcanic tube in São Miguel Island (Azores Archipelago, North Atlantic Ocean). It is the first extinct bird described from the Azores and, after the Madeiran Scops Owl (O. mauli Rando, Pieper, Alcover & Olson 2012a), the second extinct species of Strigiformes known in Macaronesia. The forelimb elements of the new taxon are shorter, the hindlimb elements are longer, and the pelvis is shorter and broader than in the Eurasian Scops Owl (O. scops Linnaeus). The new species differs from O. mauli in the smaller size of many of its bones, especially the ulna and tibiotarsus. Its measurements (estimated weight, wing area, and wing loading, and the ratio of humerus + ulna + carpometacarpus length/femur length) indicate weak powers of flight and ground-dwelling habits. The latest occurrence of the new species, as evidenced by a radiocarbon date of 1970 ± 40 BP from bone collagen, indicates a Late Holocene extinction event subsequent to 49 cal BC, and was probably linked to human arrival and subsequent habitat alterations.

Dynamics of an eco-epidemiological model with saturated incidence rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryanto, Agus

2017-03-01

In this paper we study the effect of prey infection on the modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with saturated incidence rate. The model will be analyzed dynamically to find the equilibria and their existence conditions as well as their local stability conditions. It is found that there are six type of equilibria, namely the extinction of both prey and predator point, the extinction of infective prey and predator point, the extinction of predator point, the extinction of prey point, the extinction of infective prey point and the interior point. The first four equilibrium points are always unstable, while the last two equilibria are conditionally stable. We also find that the system undergoes Hopf bifurcation around the interior point which is controlled by the rate of infection. To illustrate our analytical results, we show some numerical results.

Variability in life-history and ecological traits is a buffer against extinction in mammals.

PubMed

González-Suárez, Manuela; Revilla, Eloy

2013-02-01

Anthropogenic degradation of the world's ecosystems is leading to a widespread and accelerating loss of biodiversity. However, not all species respond equally to existing threats, raising the question: what makes a species more vulnerable to extinction? We propose that higher intraspecific variability may reduce the risk of extinction, as different individuals and populations within a species may respond differently to occurring threats. Supporting this prediction, our results show that mammalian species with more variable adult body masses, litter sizes, sexual maturity ages and population densities are less vulnerable to extinction. Our findings reveal the role of local variation among populations, particularly of large mammals, as a buffering mechanism against extinction, and emphasise the importance of considering trait variation in comparative analyses and conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Population Response to Habitat Fragmentation in a Stream-Dwelling Brook Trout Population

PubMed Central

Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (∼45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tributary populations caused rapid (2–6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7–46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can ‘rescue’ isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropogenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation. PMID:18188404

Population response to habitat fragmentation in a stream-dwelling brook trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.; Coombs, J.A.; O'Donnell, M. J.; Dubreuil, T.L.

2007-01-01

Fragmentation can strongly influence population persistence and expression of life-history strategies in spatially-structured populations. In this study, we directly estimated size-specific dispersal, growth, and survival of stream-dwelling brook trout in a stream network with connected and naturally-isolated tributaries. We used multiple-generation, individual-based data to develop and parameterize a size-class and location-based population projection model, allowing us to test effects of fragmentation on population dynamics at local (i.e., subpopulation) and system-wide (i.e., metapopulation) scales, and to identify demographic rates which influence the persistence of isolated and fragmented populations. In the naturally-isolated tributary, persistence was associated with higher early juvenile survival (-45% greater), shorter generation time (one-half) and strong selection against large body size compared to the open system, resulting in a stage-distribution skewed towards younger, smaller fish. Simulating barriers to upstream migration into two currently-connected tribuory populations caused rapid (2-6 generations) local extinction. These local extinctions in turn increased the likelihood of system-wide extinction, as tributaries could no longer function as population sources. Extinction could be prevented in the open system if sufficient immigrants from downstream areas were available, but the influx of individuals necessary to counteract fragmentation effects was high (7-46% of the total population annually). In the absence of sufficient immigration, a demographic change (higher early survival characteristic of the isolated tributary) was also sufficient to rescue the population from fragmentation, suggesting that the observed differences in size distributions between the naturally-isolated and open system may reflect an evolutionary response to isolation. Combined with strong genetic divergence between the isolated tributary and open system, these results suggest that local adaptation can 'rescue' isolated populations, particularly in one-dimensional stream networks where both natural and anthropegenically-mediated isolation is common. However, whether rescue will occur before extinction depends critically on the race between adaptation and reduced survival in response to fragmentation.

Hosts of the Plio-Pleistocene past reflect modern-day coral vulnerability

PubMed Central

van Woesik, Robert; Franklin, Erik C.; O'Leary, Jennifer; McClanahan, Tim R.; Klaus, James S.; Budd, Ann F.

2012-01-01

The risk of global extinction of reef-building coral species is increasing. We evaluated extinction risk using a biological trait-based resiliency index that was compared with Caribbean extinction during the Plio-Pleistocene, and with extinction risk determined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Through the Plio-Pleistocene, the Caribbean supported more diverse coral assemblages than today and shared considerable overlap with contemporary Indo-Pacific reefs. A clear association was found between extant Plio-Pleistocene coral genera and our positive resilience scores. Regional extinction in the past and vulnerability in the present suggests that Pocillopora, Stylophora and foliose Pavona are among the most susceptible taxa to local and regional isolation. These same taxa were among the most abundant corals in the Caribbean Pliocene. Therefore, a widespread distribution did not equate with immunity to regional extinction. The strong relationship between past and present vulnerability suggests that regional extinction events are trait-based and not merely random episodes. We found several inconsistencies between our data and the IUCN scores, which suggest a need to critically re-examine what constitutes coral vulnerability. PMID:22337694

Into the Darkness: Interstellar Extinction Near the Cepheus OB3 Molecular Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzpatrick, Edward L.; Jacklin, S.; Massa, D.

2014-01-01

We present the results of a followup investigation to a study performed by Massa and Savage (1984, ApJ, 279, 310) of the properties of UV interstellar extinction in the region of the Cepheus OB3 molecular cloud. That study was performed using UV photometry and spectro-photometry from the ANS and IUE satellites. We have extended this study into the IR, utilizing the uniform database of IR photometry available from the 2MASS project. This is a part of a larger program whose goal is to study the properties of extinction in localized regions, where we hope to find clues to dust grain growth and destruction processes through spatial correlations of extinction with distinct environmental properties. Similarly to Massa and Savage’s UV results, we find that the IR extinction properties on the Cepheus OB3 region vary systematically with the apparent proximity of the target stars to the molecular cloud. We also find that the UV extinction and the IR extinction are crudely correlated. The methodology leading to these results and their implications are discussed.

Long-Distance Rescue and Slow Extinction Dynamics Govern Multiscale Metapopulations.

PubMed

Huth, Géraldine; Haegeman, Bart; Pitard, Estelle; Munoz, François

2015-10-01

Rare long-distance dispersal is known to be critical for species dynamics, but how the interplay between short- and long-distance colonization influences regional persistence in a fragmented habitat remains poorly understood. We propose a metapopulation model that combines local colonization within habitat islands and long-distance colonization between islands. We study how regional occupancy dynamics are affected by the multiscale colonization process. We find that the island size distribution (ISD) is a key driver of the long-term occupancy dynamics. When the ISD is heterogeneous-that is, when the size of islands is variable-we show that extinction dynamics become very slow. We demonstrate that this behavior is unrelated to the well-known extinction debt near the critical extinction threshold. Hence, this finding questions the equivalence between extinction debt and critical transitions in the context of metapopulation collapse. Furthermore, we show that long-distance colonization can rescue small islands from extinction and sustain a steady regional occupancy. These results provide novel theoretical and practical insights into extinction dynamics and persistence in fragmented habitats and are thus relevant for the design of conservation strategies.

Ecological risk-benefit analysis of a wetland development based on risk assessment using "expected loss of biodiversity".

PubMed

Oka, T; Matsuda, H; Kadono, Y

2001-12-01

Ecological risk from the development of a wetland is assessed quantitatively by means of a new risk measure, expected loss of biodiversity (ELB). ELB is defined as the weighted sum of the increments in the probabilities of extinction of the species living in the wetland due to its loss. The weighting for a particular species is calculated according to the length of the branch on the phylogenetic tree that will be lost if the species becomes extinct. The length of the branch on the phylogenetic tree is regarded as reflecting the extent of contribution of the species to the taxonomic diversity of the world of living things. The increments in the probabilities of extinction are calculated by a simulation used for making the Red List for vascular plants in Japan. The resulting ELB for the loss of Nakaikemi wetland is 9,200 years. This result is combined with the economic costs for conservation of the wetland to produce a value for the indicator of the "cost per unit of biodiversity saved." Depending on the scenario, the value is 13,000 yen per year-ELB or 110,000 to 420,000 yen per year-ELB (1 US dollar = 110 yen in 1999).

On species persistence-time distributions.

PubMed

Suweis, S; Bertuzzo, E; Mari, L; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I; Maritan, A; Rinaldo, A

2012-06-21

We present new theoretical and empirical results on the probability distributions of species persistence times in natural ecosystems. Persistence times, defined as the timespans occurring between species' colonization and local extinction in a given geographic region, are empirically estimated from local observations of species' presence/absence. A connected sampling problem is presented, generalized and solved analytically. Species persistence is shown to provide a direct connection with key spatial macroecological patterns like species-area and endemics-area relationships. Our empirical analysis pertains to two different ecosystems and taxa: a herbaceous plant community and a estuarine fish database. Despite the substantial differences in ecological interactions and spatial scales, we confirm earlier evidence on the general properties of the scaling of persistence times, including the predicted effects of the structure of the spatial interaction network. The framework tested here allows to investigate directly nature and extent of spatial effects in the context of ecosystem dynamics. The notable coherence between spatial and temporal macroecological patterns, theoretically derived and empirically verified, is suggested to underlie general features of the dynamic evolution of ecosystems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing Hydrogen Recombination Lines in the Infrared and Optical to Determine Extinction and SFRs of Local LIRGs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, Anna; Inami, Hanae

2015-01-01

We report on measurements for dust extinction and star formation rates (SFRs) for luminous infrared galaxies (LIRGs). We utilized the hydrogen recombination lines Brα, Hα, and Hβ observed in the infrared and optical wavelengths with AKARI and the Lick Observatory's Kast Double spectrograph to produce spectra. By calculating Brα/Hα ratios for the target galaxies, extinction is estimated. A possible correlation between higher LIR, IR/UV, specific SFRs and higher Brα/Hα has been found. Through comparisons with Hα/Hβ, it may be possible to determine if Hα is, in fact, underestimating extinction, since Hα is more strongly affected by extinction compared to longer wavelengths such as Brα. The accuracy of using Hα in extinction corrections is important for SFR studies, and, thus, one goal is to find a more accurate reddening correction factor. Payne was supported by the NOAO/KPNO Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) Program which is funded by the National Science Foundation Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program (AST-1262829).

A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

2007-01-01

The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an example of the type of results generated, we estimated that the probability of the manatee population falling to less than 250 adults on either the Atlantic or Gulf coasts (from a current statewide population size of near 3300) within 100 years is 8.6%. Complete removal of the watercraft threat alone would reduce this risk to 0.4%; complete removal of the warm-water threat to 4.2%; removal of both threats would reduce the risk to 0.1%. The modeling approach we have taken also allows us to consider partial removal of threats, as well as removal of multiple threats simultaneously. We believe the measure we have proposed (probability of quasi-extinction over y years, with quasi-extinction defined as dropping below a threshold of z on either coast) is a suitable measure of status that integrates a number of the elements that are relevant to interpretation under the ESA (it directly integrates risk of extinction and reduction of range, and indirectly integrates loss of genetic diversity). But the identification of the time frame of interest and the tolerable risk of quasi-extinction are policy decisions, and an ecology-based quasi-extinction threshold has not yet been determined. We have endeavored to provide results over a wide range of these parameters to give decision-makers useful information to assess status. This assessment of threats suggests that watercraft-related mortality is having the greatest impact on manatee population growth and resilience. Elimination of this single threat would greatly reduce the probability of quasi-extinction. Loss of warm-water is also a significant threat, particularly over the long-term. Red tide and entanglement, while noticeable threats, have had less of an impact on the manatee population. The effect of water control structures may have already been largely mitigated. We did not, however, consider an exhaustive list of threats. Other threats (e.g., reduction of food resources due to storms and development) may play a

Fear extinction induces mGluR5-mediated synaptic and intrinsic plasticity in infralimbic neurons.

PubMed

Sepulveda-Orengo, Marian T; Lopez, Ana V; Soler-Cedeño, Omar; Porter, James T

2013-04-24

Studies suggest that plasticity in the infralimbic prefrontal cortex (IL) in rodents and its homolog in humans is necessary for inhibition of fear during the recall of fear extinction. The recall of extinction is impaired by locally blocking metabotropic glutamate receptor type 5 (mGluR5) activation in IL during extinction training. This finding suggests that mGluR5 stimulation may lead to IL plasticity needed for fear extinction. To test this hypothesis, we recorded AMPA and NMDA currents, AMPA receptor (AMPAR) rectification, and intrinsic excitability in IL pyramidal neurons in slices from trained rats using whole-cell patch-clamp recording. We observed that fear extinction increases the AMPA/NMDA ratio, consistent with insertion of AMPARs into IL synapses. In addition, extinction training increased inward rectification, suggesting that extinction induces the insertion of calcium-permeable (GluA2-lacking) AMPARs into IL synapses. Consistent with this, selectively blocking calcium-permeable AMPARs with Naspm reduced the AMPA EPSCs in IL neurons to a larger degree after extinction. Extinction-induced changes in AMPA/NMDA ratio, rectification, and intrinsic excitability were blocked with an mGluR5 antagonist. These findings suggest that mGluR5 activation leads to consolidation of fear extinction by regulating the intrinsic excitability of IL neurons and modifying the composition of AMPARs in IL synapses. Therefore, impaired mGluR5 activity in IL synapses could be one factor that causes inappropriate modulation of fear expression leading to anxiety disorders.

Predicting extinction debt from community patterns.

PubMed

Kitzes, Justin; Harte, John

2015-08-01

A significant challenge in both measuring and predicting species extinction rates at global and local scales is the possibility of extinction debt, time-delayed extinctions that occur gradually following an initial impact. Here we examine how relative abundance distributions and spatial aggregation combine to influence the likely magnitude of future extinction debt following habitat loss or climate-driven range contraction. Our analysis is based on several fundamental premises regarding abundance distributions, most importantly that species abundances immediately following habitat loss are a sample from an initial relative abundance distribution and that the long-term, steady-state form of the species abundance distribution is a property of the biology of a community and not of area. Under these two hypotheses, the results show that communities following canonical lognormal and broken-stick abundance distributions are prone to exhibit extinction debt, especially when species exhibit low spatial aggregation. Conversely, communities following a logseries distribution with a constant Fisher's α parameter never demonstrate extinction debt and often show an "immigration credit," in which species richness rises in the long term following an initial decrease. An illustration of these findings in 25 biodiversity hotspots suggests a negligible immediate extinction rate for bird communities and eventual extinction debts of 30-50% of initial species richness, whereas plant communities are predicted to immediately lose 5-15% of species without subsequent extinction debt. These results shed light on the basic determinants of extinction debt and provide initial indications of the magnitude of likely debts in landscapes where few empirical data are available.

Phylogeography of screaming hairy armadillo Chaetophractus vellerosus: Successive disjunctions and extinctions due to cyclical climatic changes in southern South America.

PubMed

Poljak, Sebastián; Ferreiro, Alejandro M; Chiappero, Marina B; Sánchez, Julieta; Gabrielli, Magalí; Lizarralde, Marta S

2018-01-01

Little is known about phylogeography of armadillo species native to southern South America. In this study we describe the phylogeography of the screaming hairy armadillo Chaetophractus vellerosus, discuss previous hypothesis about the origin of its disjunct distribution and propose an alternative one, based on novel information on genetic variability. Variation of partial sequences of mitochondrial DNA Control Region (CR) from 73 individuals from 23 localities were analyzed to carry out a phylogeographic analysis using neutrality tests, mismatch distribution, median-joining (MJ) network and paleontological records. We found 17 polymorphic sites resulting in 15 haplotypes. Two new geographic records that expand known distribution of the species are presented; one of them links the distributions of recently synonimized species C. nationi and C. vellerosus. Screaming hairy armadillo phylogeographic pattern can be addressed as category V of Avise: common widespread linages plus closely related lineages confined to one or a few nearby locales each. The older linages are distributed in the north-central area of the species distribution range in Argentina (i.e. ancestral area of distribution). C. vellerosus seems to be a low vagility species that expanded, and probably is expanding, its distribution range while presents signs of genetic structuring in central areas. To explain the disjunct distribution, a hypothesis of extinction of the species in intermediate areas due to quaternary climatic shift to more humid conditions was proposed. We offer an alternative explanation: long distance colonization, based on null genetic variability, paleontological record and evidence of alternance of cold/arid and temperate/humid climatic periods during the last million years in southern South America.

Phylogeography of screaming hairy armadillo Chaetophractus vellerosus: Successive disjunctions and extinctions due to cyclical climatic changes in southern South America

PubMed Central

Ferreiro, Alejandro M.; Chiappero, Marina B.; Sánchez, Julieta; Gabrielli, Magalí; Lizarralde, Marta S.

2018-01-01

Little is known about phylogeography of armadillo species native to southern South America. In this study we describe the phylogeography of the screaming hairy armadillo Chaetophractus vellerosus, discuss previous hypothesis about the origin of its disjunct distribution and propose an alternative one, based on novel information on genetic variability. Variation of partial sequences of mitochondrial DNA Control Region (CR) from 73 individuals from 23 localities were analyzed to carry out a phylogeographic analysis using neutrality tests, mismatch distribution, median-joining (MJ) network and paleontological records. We found 17 polymorphic sites resulting in 15 haplotypes. Two new geographic records that expand known distribution of the species are presented; one of them links the distributions of recently synonimized species C. nationi and C. vellerosus. Screaming hairy armadillo phylogeographic pattern can be addressed as category V of Avise: common widespread linages plus closely related lineages confined to one or a few nearby locales each. The older linages are distributed in the north-central area of the species distribution range in Argentina (i.e. ancestral area of distribution). C. vellerosus seems to be a low vagility species that expanded, and probably is expanding, its distribution range while presents signs of genetic structuring in central areas. To explain the disjunct distribution, a hypothesis of extinction of the species in intermediate areas due to quaternary climatic shift to more humid conditions was proposed. We offer an alternative explanation: long distance colonization, based on null genetic variability, paleontological record and evidence of alternance of cold/arid and temperate/humid climatic periods during the last million years in southern South America. PMID:29324793

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

PubMed

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

2018-01-01

Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen science monitoring data unfolds the complex relationships between the environmental dynamics and range fluctuations of this food nomadic species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.

2007-01-01

In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Multiple cenozoic invasions of Africa by penguins (Aves, Sphenisciformes)

PubMed Central

Ksepka, Daniel T.; Thomas, Daniel B.

2012-01-01

Africa hosts a single breeding species of penguin today, yet the fossil record indicates that a diverse array of now-extinct taxa once inhabited southern African coastlines. Here, we show that the African penguin fauna had a complex history involving multiple dispersals and extinctions. Phylogenetic analyses and biogeographic reconstructions incorporating new fossil material indicate that, contrary to previous hypotheses, the four Early Pliocene African penguin species do not represent an endemic radiation or direct ancestors of the living Spheniscus demersus (blackfooted penguin). A minimum of three dispersals to Africa, probably assisted by the eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar and South Atlantic currents, occurred during the Late Cenozoic. As regional sea-level fall eliminated islands and reduced offshore breeding areas during the Pliocene, all but one penguin lineage ended in extinction, resulting in today's depleted fauna. PMID:21900330

Body size and extinction risk in terrestrial mammals above the species level.

PubMed

Tomiya, Susumu

2013-12-01

Mammalian body mass strongly correlates with life history and population properties at the scale of mouse to elephant. Large body size is thus often associated with elevated extinction risk. I examined the North American fossil record (28-1 million years ago) of 276 terrestrial genera to uncover the relationship between body size and extinction probability above the species level. Phylogenetic comparative analysis revealed no correlation between sampling-adjusted durations and body masses ranging 7 orders of magnitude, an observation that was corroborated by survival analysis. Most of the ecological and temporal groups within the data set showed the same lack of relationship. Size-biased generic extinctions do not constitute a general feature of the Holarctic mammalian faunas in the Neogene. Rather, accelerated loss of large mammals occurred during intervals that experienced combinations of regional aridification and increased biomic heterogeneity within continents. The latter phenomenon is consistent with the macroecological prediction that large geographic ranges are critical to the survival of large mammals in evolutionary time. The frequent lack of size selectivity in generic extinctions can be reconciled with size-biased species loss if extinctions of large and small mammals at the species level are often driven by ecological perturbations of different spatial and temporal scales, while those at the genus level are more synchronized in time as a result of fundamental, multiscale environmental shifts.

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Genetic isolation of a now extinct population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus)

PubMed Central

Nichols, Courtney; Herman, Jerry; Gaggiotti, Oscar E; Dobney, Keith M; Parsons, Kim; Hoelzel, A. Rus

2007-01-01

A number of dolphin species, though highly mobile, show genetic structure among parapatric and sometimes sympatric populations. However, little is known about the temporal patterns of population structure for these species. Here, we apply Bayesian inference and data from ancient DNA to assess the structure and dynamics of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the coastal waters of the UK. We show that regional population structure in UK waters is consistent with earlier studies suggesting local habitat dependence for this species in the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic. One genetically differentiated UK population went extinct at least 100 years ago and has not been replaced. The data indicate that this was a local extinction, and not a case of historical range shift or contraction. One possible interpretation is a declining metapopulation and conservation need for this species in the UK. PMID:17456457

A class of stochastic delayed SIR epidemic models with generalized nonlinear incidence rate and temporary immunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Kuangang; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Shujing; Wei, Xiang

2017-09-01

A class of SIR epidemic model with generalized nonlinear incidence rate is presented in this paper. Temporary immunity and stochastic perturbation are also considered. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is achieved. Sufficient conditions guaranteeing the extinction and persistence of the epidemic disease are established. Moreover, the threshold behavior is discussed, and the threshold value R0 is obtained. We show that if R0 < 1, the disease eventually becomes extinct with probability one, whereas if R0 > 1, then the system remains permanent in the mean.

SAGE 1 and SAM 2 measurements of 1 micron aerosol extinction in the free troposphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kent, G. S.; Farrukh, U. O.; Wang, P. H.; Deepak, A.

1988-01-01

The SAGE 1 and SAM 2 satellite sensors were designed to measure, with global coverage, the 1 micron extinction produced by the stratospheric aerosol. In the absence of high altitude cloud, similar measurements may be made for the free tropospheric aerosol. Median extinction values in the Northern Hemisphere, for altitudes between 5 and 10 km, are found to be one-half to one order of magnitude greater than values at corresponding latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition, a seasonal increase by a factor of 1.5 yields 2 is observed in both hemispheres in local spring and summer. Following major volcanic eruptions, a long-lived enhancement of the aerosol extinction is observed for altitudes above 5 km.

Calcium Isotopic Evidence for Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem Structure Prior to the K/Pg Extinction.

PubMed

Martin, Jeremy E; Vincent, Peggy; Tacail, Théo; Khaldoune, Fatima; Jourani, Essaid; Bardet, Nathalie; Balter, Vincent

2017-06-05

The collapse of marine ecosystems during the end-Cretaceous mass extinction involved the base of the food chain [1] up to ubiquitous vertebrate apex predators [2-5]. Large marine reptiles became suddenly extinct at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary, whereas other contemporaneous groups such as bothremydid turtles or dyrosaurid crocodylomorphs, although affected at the familial, genus, or species level, survived into post-crisis environments of the Paleocene [5-9] and could have found refuge in freshwater habitats [10-12]. A recent hypothesis proposes that the extinction of plesiosaurians and mosasaurids could have been caused by an important drop in sea level [13]. Mosasaurids are unusually diverse and locally abundant in the Maastrichtian phosphatic deposits of Morocco, and with large sharks and one species of elasmosaurid plesiosaurian recognized so far, contribute to an overabundance of apex predators [3, 7, 14, 15]. For this reason, high local diversity of marine reptiles exhibiting different body masses and a wealth of tooth morphologies hints at complex trophic interactions within this latest Cretaceous marine ecosystem. Using calcium isotopes, we investigated the trophic structure of this extinct assemblage. Our results are consistent with a calcium isotope pattern observed in modern marine ecosystems and show that plesiosaurians and mosasaurids indiscriminately fall in the tertiary piscivore group. This suggests that marine reptile apex predators relied onto a single dietary calcium source, compatible with the vulnerable wasp-waist food webs of the modern world [16]. This inferred peculiar ecosystem structure may help explain plesiosaurian and mosasaurid extinction following the end-Cretaceous biological crisis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Warming-induced changes in predation, extinction and invasion in an ectotherm food web.

PubMed

Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Gaedke, Ursula; Vos, Matthijs

2015-06-01

Climate change will alter the forces of predation and competition in temperate ectotherm food webs. This may increase local extinction rates, change the fate of invasions and impede species reintroductions into communities. Invasion success could be modulated by traits (e.g., defenses) and adaptations to climate. We studied how different temperatures affect the time until extinction of species, using bitrophic and tritrophic planktonic food webs to evaluate the relative importance of predatory overexploitation and competitive exclusion, at 15 and 25 °C. In addition, we tested how inclusion of a subtropical as opposed to a temperate strain in this model food web affects times until extinction. Further, we studied the invasion success of the temperate rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus into the planktonic food web at 15 and 25 °C on five consecutive introduction dates, during which the relative forces of predation and competition differed. A higher temperature dramatically shortened times until extinction of all herbivore species due to carnivorous overexploitation in tritrophic systems. Surprisingly, warming did not increase rates of competitive exclusion among the tested herbivore species in bitrophic communities. Including a subtropical herbivore strain reduced top-down control by the carnivore at high temperature. Invasion attempts of temperate B. calyciflorus into the food web always succeeded at 15 °C, but consistently failed at 25 °C due to voracious overexploitation by the carnivore. Pre-induction of defenses (spines) in B. calyciflorus before the invasion attempt did not change its invasion success at the high temperature. We conclude that high temperatures may promote local extinctions in temperate ectotherms and reduce their chances of successful recovery.

Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial–modern China

PubMed Central

Turvey, Samuel T.; Crees, Jennifer J.; Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.

2015-01-01

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures. PMID:26246553

Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial-modern China.

PubMed

Turvey, Samuel T; Crees, Jennifer J; Di Fonzo, Martina M I

2015-08-22

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures. © 2015 The Authors.

Germination behaviour of annual plants under changing climatic conditions: separating local and regional environmental effects.

PubMed

Petrů, Martina; Tielbörger, Katja

2008-04-01

The role of local adaptation and factors other than climate in determining extinction probabilities of species under climate change has not been yet explicitly studied. Here we performed a field experiment with annual plants growing along a steep climatic gradient in Israel to isolate climatic effects for local trait expression. The focus trait was seed dormancy, for which many theoretical predictions exist regarding climate-driven optimal germination behaviour. We evaluated how germination is consistent with theory, indicating local adaptation to current and changing climatic conditions, and how it varies among species and between natural and standardised soil conditions. We reciprocally sowed seeds from three or four origins for each of three annual species, Biscutella didyma, Bromus fasciculatus and Hymenocarpos circinnatus, in their home and neighbouring sowing locations along an aridity gradient. Our predictions were: lower germination fraction for seeds from more arid origins, and higher germination at wetter sowing locations for all seed origins. By sowing seeds in both local and standard soil, we separated climatic effects from local conditions. At the arid sowing location, two species supported the prediction of low germination of drier seed origins, but differences between seed origins at the other sites were not substantial. There were no clear rainfall effects on germination. Germination fractions were consistently lower on local soil than on standard soil, indicating the important role of soil type and neighbour conditions for trait expression. Local environmental conditions may override effects of climate and so should be carefully addressed in future studies testing for the potential of species to adapt or plastically respond to climate change.

US cities can manage national hydrology and biodiversity using local infrastructure policy

PubMed Central

Surendran Nair, Sujithkumar; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Ruddell, Benjamin L.; Morton, April M.; Stewart, Robert N.; Troia, Matthew J.; Tran, Liem; Kim, Hyun; Bhaduri, Budhendra L.

2017-01-01

Cities are concentrations of sociopolitical power and prime architects of land transformation, while also serving as consumption hubs of “hard” water and energy infrastructures. These infrastructures extend well outside metropolitan boundaries and impact distal river ecosystems. We used a comprehensive model to quantify the roles of anthropogenic stressors on hydrologic alteration and biodiversity in US streams and isolate the impacts stemming from hard infrastructure developments in cities. Across the contiguous United States, cities’ hard infrastructures have significantly altered at least 7% of streams, which influence habitats for over 60% of North America’s fish, mussel, and crayfish species. Additionally, city infrastructures have contributed to local extinctions in 260 species and currently influence 970 indigenous species, 27% of which are in jeopardy. We find that ecosystem impacts do not scale with city size but are instead proportionate to infrastructure decisions. For example, Atlanta’s impacts by hard infrastructures extend across four major river basins, 12,500 stream km, and contribute to 100 local extinctions of aquatic species. In contrast, Las Vegas, a similar size city, impacts <1,000 stream km, leading to only seven local extinctions. So, cities have local policy choices that can reduce future impacts to regional aquatic ecosystems as they grow. By coordinating policy and communication between hard infrastructure sectors, local city governments and utilities can directly improve environmental quality in a significant fraction of the nation’s streams reaching far beyond their city boundaries. PMID:28827332

The Metabotropic Glutamate Receptor, mGlu5, Is Required for Extinction Learning That Occurs in the Absence of a Context Change

PubMed Central

André, Marion Agnes Emma; Güntürkün, Onur; Manahan-Vaughan, Denise

2015-01-01

The metabotropic glutamate (mGlu) receptors and, in particular, mGlu5 are crucially involved in multiple forms of synaptic plasticity that are believed to underlie explicit memory. MGlu5 is also required for information transfer through neuronal oscillations and for spatial memory. Furthermore, mGlu5 is involved in extinction of implicit forms of learning. This places this receptor in a unique position with regard to information encoding. Here, we explored the role of this receptor in context-dependent extinction learning under constant, or changed, contextual conditions. Animals were trained over 3 days to take a left turn under 25% reward probability in a T-maze with a distinct floor pattern (Context A). On Day 4, they experienced either a floor pattern change (Context B) or the same floor pattern (Context A) in the absence of reward. After acquisition of the task, the animals were returned to the maze once more on Day 5 (Context A, no reward). Treatment with the mGlu5 antagonist, 2-methyl-6-(phenylethynyl) pyridine, before maze exposure on Day 4 completely inhibited extinction learning in the AAA paradigm but had no effect in the ABA paradigm. A subsequent return to the original context (A, on Day 5) revealed successful extinction in the AAA paradigm, but impairment of extinction in the ABA paradigm. These data support that although extinction learning in a new context is unaffected by mGlu5 antagonism, extinction of the consolidated context is impaired. This suggests that mGlu5 is intrinsically involved in enabling learning that once-relevant information is no longer valid. © 2014 The Authors. Hippocampus Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25160592

The metabotropic glutamate receptor, mGlu5, is required for extinction learning that occurs in the absence of a context change.

PubMed

André, Marion Agnes Emma; Güntürkün, Onur; Manahan-Vaughan, Denise

2015-02-01

The metabotropic glutamate (mGlu) receptors and, in particular, mGlu5 are crucially involved in multiple forms of synaptic plasticity that are believed to underlie explicit memory. MGlu5 is also required for information transfer through neuronal oscillations and for spatial memory. Furthermore, mGlu5 is involved in extinction of implicit forms of learning. This places this receptor in a unique position with regard to information encoding. Here, we explored the role of this receptor in context-dependent extinction learning under constant, or changed, contextual conditions. Animals were trained over 3 days to take a left turn under 25% reward probability in a T-maze with a distinct floor pattern (Context A). On Day 4, they experienced either a floor pattern change (Context B) or the same floor pattern (Context A) in the absence of reward. After acquisition of the task, the animals were returned to the maze once more on Day 5 (Context A, no reward). Treatment with the mGlu5 antagonist, 2-methyl-6-(phenylethynyl) pyridine, before maze exposure on Day 4 completely inhibited extinction learning in the AAA paradigm but had no effect in the ABA paradigm. A subsequent return to the original context (A, on Day 5) revealed successful extinction in the AAA paradigm, but impairment of extinction in the ABA paradigm. These data support that although extinction learning in a new context is unaffected by mGlu5 antagonism, extinction of the consolidated context is impaired. This suggests that mGlu5 is intrinsically involved in enabling learning that once-relevant information is no longer valid. © 2014 The Authors. Hippocampus Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pathogen transmission at stage-structured infectious patches: Killers and vaccinators.

PubMed

Caraco, Thomas; Turner, Wendy C

2018-01-07

Spatial localization of an obligate-killing, free-living pathogen generates a landscape of patches where new infections occur. As an infectious patch ages, both pathogen exposure at the patch and the probability of lethal infection following exposure can decline. We model stage-structured infectious patches, where non-lethal exposure can naturally "vaccinate" susceptible hosts. We let the between-stage difference in pathogen transmission, and then the between-stage difference in patch virulence, increase independently of other parameters. Effects of increasing either between-stage difference (about a fixed mean) depend on the probability a patch transitions from the first to second stage, i.e., the chance that a killer patch becomes a vaccinator. For slower stage transition, greater between-stage differences decreased susceptibles, and increased both resistant-host and killer patch numbers. But our examples reveal that each effect can be reversed when between-stage transition occurs more rapidly. For sufficiently rapid stage transition, increased between-stage virulence differences can lead to pathogen extinction, and leave the host at disease-free equilibrium. The model's general significance lies in demonstrating how epidemiological variation among sites of environmentally transmitted disease can strongly govern host-parasite dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suweis, Samir; Rinaldo, Andrea; Maritan, Amos

2012-07-01

We present novel analytical results concerning ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse-grained neutral model based on birth-death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing both theoretical results from ecological neutral theory and empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. The neutral model of biodiversity deals with ecosystems at the same trophic level, where per capita vital rates are assumed to be species independent. Closed-form analytical solutions for the neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results pertain to: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the ecosystem, both in transient and in stationary states; the n-point connected time correlation function; and the survival probability, defined as the distribution of time spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data from an estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model, with implications for biodiversity and conservation biology.

Burned and buried by the Siberian traps: tree trunks in volcaniclastics and lavas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polozov, Alexander G.; Planke, Sverre; Svensen, Henrik H.; Jerram, Dougal A.; Looy, Cindy

2017-04-01

Major Phanerozoic mass extinctions could be explained by intense volcanic activity related to the formation of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs). The Siberian Traps LIP possibly caused the most severe mass extinction on the Earth, the end-Permian extinction. This event is documented by global data showing the extinction of floral and faunal species and by stable isotope excursions. Information about the direct impact of the Siberian Traps on the local flora and fauna is scarce. By our knowledge, no detailed description has been done on the faith of trees in Siberia. However, the story of Late Permian giant trees like Cordaites and wood ferns, could shed light on the impact of the onset of the LIP magmatism and the related mass extinction. For the first time we describe that Late Permian tree trunks were buried in volcaniclastic deposits and at the footwall contact of the oldest lava flows of the Siberian Traps, and despite that this phenomenon is known by local geologists it is not well described in the literature. Tree trunks in volcaniclastic deposits were compressed during consolidation of the volcaniclastic material originated from pyroclastic density currents from nearby volcanic centers. Tree petrification is presented by quartz with minor sulphides, zeolite, calcite and sulphates. Tree trunks at the footwall contact of the lava flows have a better preserved year rings structure and late permineralization presented by calcite with minor quartz and sulphides. Our results demonstrate that intensive magmatic activity related with LIP formation affects land vegetation at various grades. Lavas have had a local violent impact, but burned and buried tree trunks have a better preserved structure reflecting single dominated permineralization processes than the tree trunks buried by pyroclastics that have covered extensive areas and followed by trees compression and later multistage permineralization. In a global context, such type of volcanic activity has a variable influence on vegetation realms. Lava flows have had a harsh impact on land flora locally, but in some cases was favorable for preservation of tree remnants. Volcaniclastic deposits covered a wide area, but tree trunks were deformed due to compaction of the pyroclastic rocks. Late water circulation is reflected in multistage permineralization phenomena. Further ash expansion and settling could have a global impact and accelerate the mass extinction.

GENETIC DIVERSITY AND STRUCTURE OF AN ESTUARINE FISH (FUNDULUS HETEROCLITUS) INDIGENOUS TO A HIGHLY CONTAMINATED URBAN HARBOR

EPA Science Inventory

Intense directional selection on isolated populations can result in loss of genetic diversity, which if persistent, reduces adaptive potential and increases extinction probability. Phenotypic evidence of inherited tolerance suggests that toxic pollutants, specifically, polychlor...

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Tom H.; Marshall, Harry H.; Morecroft, Mike D.; Brereton, Tom; Prudhomme, Christel; Huntingford, Chris

2015-10-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with `business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

A theoretical quantitative genetic study of negative ecological interactions and extinction times in changing environments.

PubMed

Jones, Adam G

2008-04-25

Rapid human-induced changes in the environment at local, regional and global scales appear to be contributing to population declines and extinctions, resulting in an unprecedented biodiversity crisis. Although in the short term populations can respond ecologically to environmental alterations, in the face of persistent change populations must evolve or become extinct. Existing models of evolution and extinction in changing environments focus only on single species, even though the dynamics of extinction almost certainly depend upon the nature of species interactions. Here, I use a model of quantitative trait evolution in a two-species community to show that negative ecological interactions, such as predation and competition, can produce unexpected results regarding time to extinction. Under some circumstances, negative interactions can be expected to hasten the extinction of species declining in numbers. However, under other circumstances, negative interactions can actually increase times to extinction. This effect occurs across a wide range of parameter values and can be substantial, in some cases allowing a population to persist for 40 percent longer than it would in the absence of the species interaction. This theoretical study indicates that negative species interactions can have unexpected positive effects on times to extinction. Consequently, detailed studies of selection and demographics will be necessary to predict the consequences of species interactions in changing environments for any particular ecological community.

Evolution Under Environmental Stress at Macro- and Microscales

PubMed Central

Nevo, Eviatar

2011-01-01

Environmental stress has played a major role in the evolution of living organisms (Hoffman AA, Parsons PA. 1991. Evolutionary genetics and environmental stress. Oxford: Oxford University Press; Parsons PA. 2005. Environments and evolution: interactions between stress, resource inadequacy, and energetic efficiency. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 80:589–610). This is reflected by the massive and background extinctions in evolutionary time (Nevo E. 1995a. Evolution and extinction. Encyclopedia of Environmental Biology. New York: Academic Press, Inc. 1:717–745). The interaction between organism and environment is central in evolution. Extinction ensues when organisms fail to change and adapt to the constantly altering abiotic and biotic stressful environmental changes as documented in the fossil record. Extreme environmental stress causes extinction but also leads to evolutionary change and the origination of new species adapted to new environments. I will discuss a few of these global, regional, and local stresses based primarily on my own research programs. These examples will include the 1) global regional and local experiment of subterranean mammals; 2) regional experiment of fungal life in the Dead Sea; 3) evolution of wild cereals; 4) “Evolution Canyon”; 5) human brain evolution, and 6) global warming. PMID:21979157

Evolution under environmental stress at macro- and microscales.

PubMed

Nevo, Eviatar

2011-01-01

Environmental stress has played a major role in the evolution of living organisms (Hoffman AA, Parsons PA. 1991. Evolutionary genetics and environmental stress. Oxford: Oxford University Press; Parsons PA. 2005. Environments and evolution: interactions between stress, resource inadequacy, and energetic efficiency. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 80:589-610). This is reflected by the massive and background extinctions in evolutionary time (Nevo E. 1995a. Evolution and extinction. Encyclopedia of Environmental Biology. New York: Academic Press, Inc. 1:717-745). The interaction between organism and environment is central in evolution. Extinction ensues when organisms fail to change and adapt to the constantly altering abiotic and biotic stressful environmental changes as documented in the fossil record. Extreme environmental stress causes extinction but also leads to evolutionary change and the origination of new species adapted to new environments. I will discuss a few of these global, regional, and local stresses based primarily on my own research programs. These examples will include the 1) global regional and local experiment of subterranean mammals; 2) regional experiment of fungal life in the Dead Sea; 3) evolution of wild cereals; 4) "Evolution Canyon"; 5) human brain evolution, and 6) global warming.

Rare species contribute disproportionately to the functional structure of species assemblages.

PubMed

Leitão, Rafael P; Zuanon, Jansen; Villéger, Sébastien; Williams, Stephen E; Baraloto, Christopher; Fortunel, Claire; Mendonça, Fernando P; Mouillot, David

2016-04-13

There is broad consensus that the diversity of functional traits within species assemblages drives several ecological processes. It is also widely recognized that rare species are the first to become extinct following human-induced disturbances. Surprisingly, however, the functional importance of rare species is still poorly understood, particularly in tropical species-rich assemblages where the majority of species are rare, and the rate of species extinction can be high. Here, we investigated the consequences of local and regional extinctions on the functional structure of species assemblages. We used three extensive datasets (stream fish from the Brazilian Amazon, rainforest trees from French Guiana, and birds from the Australian Wet Tropics) and built an integrative measure of species rarity versus commonness, combining local abundance, geographical range, and habitat breadth. Using different scenarios of species loss, we found a disproportionate impact of rare species extinction for the three groups, with significant reductions in levels of functional richness, specialization, and originality of assemblages, which may severely undermine the integrity of ecological processes. The whole breadth of functional abilities within species assemblages, which is disproportionately supported by rare species, is certainly critical in maintaining ecosystems particularly under the ongoing rapid environmental transitions. © 2016 The Author(s).

Rare species contribute disproportionately to the functional structure of species assemblages

PubMed Central

Zuanon, Jansen; Williams, Stephen E.; Baraloto, Christopher; Mendonça, Fernando P.

2016-01-01

There is broad consensus that the diversity of functional traits within species assemblages drives several ecological processes. It is also widely recognized that rare species are the first to become extinct following human-induced disturbances. Surprisingly, however, the functional importance of rare species is still poorly understood, particularly in tropical species-rich assemblages where the majority of species are rare, and the rate of species extinction can be high. Here, we investigated the consequences of local and regional extinctions on the functional structure of species assemblages. We used three extensive datasets (stream fish from the Brazilian Amazon, rainforest trees from French Guiana, and birds from the Australian Wet Tropics) and built an integrative measure of species rarity versus commonness, combining local abundance, geographical range, and habitat breadth. Using different scenarios of species loss, we found a disproportionate impact of rare species extinction for the three groups, with significant reductions in levels of functional richness, specialization, and originality of assemblages, which may severely undermine the integrity of ecological processes. The whole breadth of functional abilities within species assemblages, which is disproportionately supported by rare species, is certainly critical in maintaining ecosystems particularly under the ongoing rapid environmental transitions. PMID:27053754

'Tales of Symphonia': extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests.

PubMed

Virah-Sawmy, Malika; Bonsall, Michael B; Willis, Katherine J

2009-12-23

Madagascar's rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.

A Novel Strategy for Numerical Simulation of High-speed Turbulent Reacting Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheikhi, M. R. H.; Drozda, T. G.; Givi, P.

2003-01-01

The objective of this research is to improve and implement the filtered mass density function (FDF) methodology for large eddy simulation (LES) of high-speed reacting turbulent flows. We have just completed Year 1 of this research. This is the Final Report on our activities during the period: January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2003. 2002. In the efforts during the past year, LES is conducted of the Sandia Flame D, which is a turbulent piloted nonpremixed methane jet flame. The subgrid scale (SGS) closure is based on the scalar filtered mass density function (SFMDF) methodology. The SFMDF is basically the mass weighted probability density function (PDF) of the SGS scalar quantities. For this flame (which exhibits little local extinction), a simple flamelet model is used to relate the instantaneous composition to the mixture fraction. The modelled SFMDF transport equation is solved by a hybrid finite-difference/Monte Carlo scheme.

Can we detect Galactic spiral arms? 3D dust distribution in the Milky Way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaei Kh., Sara; Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.; Fouesneau, Morgan; Hanson, Richard

2018-04-01

We present a model to map the 3D distribution of dust in the Milky Way. Although dust is just a tiny fraction of what comprises the Galaxy, it plays an important role in various processes. In recent years various maps of dust extinction have been produced, but we still lack a good knowledge of the dust distribution. Our presented approach leverages line-of-sight extinctions towards stars in the Galaxy at measured distances. Since extinction is proportional to the integral of the dust density towards a given star, it is possible to reconstruct the 3D distribution of dust by combining many lines-of-sight in a model accounting for the spatial correlation of the dust. Such a technique can be used to infer the most probable 3D distribution of dust in the Galaxy even in regions which have not been observed. This contribution provides one of the first maps which does not show the ``fingers of God'' effect. Furthermore, we show that expected high precision measurements of distances and extinctions offer the possibility of mapping the spiral arms in the Galaxy.

I-HEDGE: determining the optimum complementary sets of taxa for conservation using evolutionary isolation

PubMed Central

Mooers, Arne Ø.; Caccone, Adalgisa; Russello, Michael A.

2016-01-01

In the midst of the current biodiversity crisis, conservation efforts might profitably be directed towards ensuring that extinctions do not result in inordinate losses of evolutionary history. Numerous methods have been developed to evaluate the importance of species based on their contribution to total phylogenetic diversity on trees and networks, but existing methods fail to take complementarity into account, and thus cannot identify the best order or subset of taxa to protect. Here, we develop a novel iterative calculation of the heightened evolutionary distinctiveness and globally endangered metric (I-HEDGE) that produces the optimal ranked list for conservation prioritization, taking into account complementarity and based on both phylogenetic diversity and extinction probability. We applied this metric to a phylogenetic network based on mitochondrial control region data from extant and recently extinct giant Galápagos tortoises, a highly endangered group of closely related species. We found that the restoration of two extinct species (a project currently underway) will contribute the greatest gain in phylogenetic diversity, and present an ordered list of rankings that is the optimum complementarity set for conservation prioritization. PMID:27635324

I-HEDGE: determining the optimum complementary sets of taxa for conservation using evolutionary isolation.

PubMed

Jensen, Evelyn L; Mooers, Arne Ø; Caccone, Adalgisa; Russello, Michael A

2016-01-01

In the midst of the current biodiversity crisis, conservation efforts might profitably be directed towards ensuring that extinctions do not result in inordinate losses of evolutionary history. Numerous methods have been developed to evaluate the importance of species based on their contribution to total phylogenetic diversity on trees and networks, but existing methods fail to take complementarity into account, and thus cannot identify the best order or subset of taxa to protect. Here, we develop a novel iterative calculation of the heightened evolutionary distinctiveness and globally endangered metric (I-HEDGE) that produces the optimal ranked list for conservation prioritization, taking into account complementarity and based on both phylogenetic diversity and extinction probability. We applied this metric to a phylogenetic network based on mitochondrial control region data from extant and recently extinct giant Galápagos tortoises, a highly endangered group of closely related species. We found that the restoration of two extinct species (a project currently underway) will contribute the greatest gain in phylogenetic diversity, and present an ordered list of rankings that is the optimum complementarity set for conservation prioritization.

Mesozoic Calcareous Nannofossil Evolution: Relation to Paleoceanographic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, Peter H.

1987-12-01

The taxonomic evolution of Jurassic and Cretaceous calcareous nannofossil species is described using the following indices: species diversity, rate of speciation, rate of extinction, rate of diversification, rate of turnover, survivorship, and species accretion. The Jurassic prior to the late Oxfordian is characterized by positive diversification rates, that is, rates of speciation exceeded rates of extinction. Highest rates of diversification occurred in the late Lias and early Oxfordian. During the generally regressive latest Jurassic, diversification rates remained low and rates of extinctions exceed rates of speciation. In the early Cretaceous, rates of diversification are positive and peak in the early Valanginian, early Aptian, and middle Albian, after which time rates of extinction generally exceed rates of speciation. Such peaks in rate of evolution coincide with times of increased accumulation of organic carbon in the ocean ("anoxic events"). Peaks in rates of extinction result in very high rates of turnover during times of major regressions, in particular, in the Tithonian and Maastrichtian. Survivorship analyses for three datum planes (74.5, 144, and 160 Ma) show relatively constant extinction rates with some stepping in the older part; they are best explained by a temporally fluctuating abiotic environment causing changes in the probability of extinction. Species accretion curves are also relatively linear with some indication of changing rates of speciation. The coincidences of major changes in evolutionary rates with major paleoceanographic events are indicative of a predominantly abiotic control of nannoplankton evolution. Relationships of evolutionary rates of calcareous nannoplankton with deep ocean ventilation, sea level, and ocean fertility indicates that global tectonic processes are the ultimate causes of evolutionary change.

"Life history space": a multivariate analysis of life history variation in extant and extinct Malagasy lemurs.

PubMed

Catlett, Kierstin K; Schwartz, Gary T; Godfrey, Laurie R; Jungers, William L

2010-07-01

Studies of primate life history variation are constrained by the fact that all large-bodied extant primates are haplorhines. However, large-bodied strepsirrhines recently existed. If we can extract life history information from their skeletons, these species can contribute to our understanding of primate life history variation. This is particularly important in light of new critiques of the classic "fast-slow continuum" as a descriptor of variation in life history profiles across mammals in general. We use established dental histological methods to estimate gestation length and age at weaning for five extinct lemur species. On the basis of these estimates, we reconstruct minimum interbirth intervals and maximum reproductive rates. We utilize principal components analysis to create a multivariate "life history space" that captures the relationships among reproductive parameters and brain and body size in extinct and extant lemurs. Our data show that, whereas large-bodied extinct lemurs can be described as "slow" in some fashion, they also varied greatly in their life history profiles. Those with relatively large brains also weaned their offspring late and had long interbirth intervals. These were not the largest of extinct lemurs. Thus, we distinguish size-related life history variation from variation that linked more strongly to ecological factors. Because all lemur species larger than 10 kg, regardless of life history profile, succumbed to extinction after humans arrived in Madagascar, we argue that large body size increased the probability of extinction independently of reproductive rate. We also provide some evidence that, among lemurs, brain size predicts reproductive rate better than body size. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Mountain plover responses to plague in Montana.

PubMed

Dinsmore, Stephen J; Smith, Mark D

2010-01-01

Plague is a bacterial (Yersinia pestis) disease that causes epizootic die-offs in black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) populations in the North American Great Plains. Through their grazing and burrowing, prairie dogs modify vegetation and landscape structure on their colonies in ways that affect other grassland species. Plague epizootics on prairie dog colonies can have indirect effects on species associated with colonies. The mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) preferentially nests on black-tailed prairie dog colonies and is thus negatively impacted by the loss of prairie dogs. We studied the effects of plague and colony spatial characteristics on the occupancy of 81 prairie dog colonies by nesting plovers in Phillips County, Montana, during a 13-year period (1995-2007). We used a robust design patch occupancy model to investigate how colony occupancy and extinction and colonization rates were affected by plague history, colony size, and colony shape. Here extinction and colonization rates refer to the probability that a colony loses/gains plovers in a subsequent nesting season, given that it had/lacked plovers in that breeding season. Colony occupancy was best explained by a model with no annual variation or plague effects. Colony extinction rates were driven by a combination of a quadratic of colony area, a 3-year plague response, and a measure of colony shape. Conversely, colonization rates were best explained by a model with a 4-year plague response. The estimated annual proportion of colonies occupied by plovers was 0.75 (95% confidence interval = 0.57-0.87). Estimated extinction probability ranged from a low of 0.07 (standard error [SE] = 0.02) in 2002 to a high of 0.25 (SE = 0.03) in 1995; colonization probability ranged from 0.24 (SE = 0.05) in 2006 to 0.35 (SE = 0.05) in 2000. Our results highlight how a bird that depends on prairie dogs for nesting habitat responds to plague history and other spatial characteristics of the colony. Ultimately, this information will broaden our understanding of the impact of plague on species other than the host.

Fear extinction induces mGluR5-mediated synaptic and intrinsic plasticity in infralimbic neurons

PubMed Central

Sepulveda-Orengo, Marian T.; Lopez, Ana V.; Soler-Cedeño, Omar; Porter, James T.

2013-01-01

Studies suggest that plasticity in the infralimbic prefrontal cortex (IL) in rodents and its homolog in humans is necessary for inhibition of fear during the recall of fear extinction. The recall of extinction is impaired by locally blocking metabotropic glutamate receptor type 5 (mGluR5) activation in IL during extinction training. This finding suggests that mGluR5 stimulation may lead to IL plasticity needed for fear extinction. To test this hypothesis, we recorded AMPA and NMDA currents, AMPA receptor rectification, and intrinsic excitability in IL pyramidal neurons in slices from trained rats using whole-cell patch-clamp. We observed that fear extinction increases the AMPA/NMDA ratio, consistent with insertion of AMPA receptors into IL synapses. In addition, extinction training increased inward rectification, suggesting that extinction induces the insertion of calcium-permeable (GluA2-lacking) AMPA receptors into IL synapses. Consistent with this, selectively blocking calcium-permeable AMPA receptors with Naspm reduced the AMPA EPSCs in IL neurons to a larger degree after extinction. Extinction-induced changes in AMPA/NMDA ratio, rectification, and intrinsic excitability were blocked with an mGluR5 antagonist. Together, these findings suggest that mGluR5 activation leads to consolidation of fear extinction by regulating the intrinsic excitability of IL neurons and modifying the composition of AMPA receptors in IL synapses. Consequently, impaired mGluR5 activity in IL synapses could be one factor that causes inappropriate modulation of fear expression leading to anxiety disorders. PMID:23616528

Reduced extinction of hippocampal-dependent memories in CPEB knockout mice.

PubMed

Berger-Sweeney, Joanne; Zearfoss, N Ruth; Richter, Joel D

2006-01-01

CPEB is a sequence-specific RNA binding protein that regulates translation at synapses. In neurons of CPEB knockout mice, synaptic efficacy is reduced. Here, we have performed a battery of behavioral tests and find that relative to wild-type animals, CPEB knockout mice, although similar on many baseline behaviors, have reduced extinction of memories on two hippocampal-dependent tasks. A corresponding microarray analysis reveals that about 0.14% of hippocampal genes have an altered expression in the CPEB knockout mouse. These data suggest that CPEB-dependent local protein synthesis may be an important cellular mechanism underlying extinction of hippocampal-dependent memories.

Can oncology recapitulate paleontology? Lessons from species extinctions

PubMed Central

Walther, Viola; Hiley, Crispin T.; Shibata, Darryl; Swanton, Charles; Turner, Paul E.; Maley, Carlo C.

2015-01-01

Although we can treat cancers with cytotoxic chemotherapies, target them with molecules that bind to oncogenic drivers, and induce substantial cell death with radiation, local and metastatic tumours recur, resulting in extensive morbidity and mortality. It is difficult to drive a tumour to extinction. Geographically dispersed species are perhaps equally resistant to extinction, but >99.9% of species that have ever existed have become extinct. By contrast, we are nowhere near that level of success in cancer therapy. The phenomena are broadly analogous. In both cases, a genetically diverse population mutates and evolves through natural selection. The goal of cancer therapy is to cause cancer cell population extinction or at least to limit any further increase in population size, so the tumour burden does not overwhelm the patient. However, despite available treatments, complete responses are rare, and partial responses are limited in duration. Many patients eventually relapse with tumours that evolve from cells that survive therapy. Similarly, species are remarkably resilient to environmental change. Paleontology can show us the conditions that lead to extinction and the characteristics of species that make them resistant to extinction. These lessons could be translated to improve cancer therapy and prognosis. PMID:25687908

Speciation, range contraction and extinction in the endemic New Zealand King Shag complex.

PubMed

Rawlence, Nicolas J; Till, Charlotte E; Easton, Luke J; Spencer, Hamish G; Schuckard, Rob; Melville, David S; Scofield, R Paul; Tennyson, Alan J D; Rayner, Matt J; Waters, Jonathan M; Kennedy, Martyn

2017-10-01

New Zealand's endemic King Shag (Leucocarbo carunculatus) has occupied only a narrow portion of the northeastern South Island for at least the past 240years. However, pre-human Holocene fossil and archaeological remains have suggested a far more widespread distribution of the three Leucocarbo species (King, Otago, Foveaux) on mainland New Zealand at the time of Polynesian settlement in the late 13th Century CE. We use modern and ancient DNA, and morphometric and osteological analyses, of modern King Shags and Holocene fossil Leucocarbo remains to assess the pre-human distribution and taxonomic status of the King Shag on mainland New Zealand, and the resultant conservation implications. Our analyses show that the King Shag was formerly widespread around southern coasts of the North Island and the northern parts of the South Island but experienced population and lineage extinctions, and range contraction, probably after Polynesian arrival. This history parallels range contractions of other New Zealand seabirds. Conservation management of the King Shag should take into account this species narrow distribution and probable reduced genetic diversity. Moreover, combined genetic, morphometric and osteological analyses of prehistoric material from mainland New Zealand suggest that the now extinct northern New Zealand Leucocarbo populations comprised a unique lineage. Although these distinctive populations were previously assigned to the King Shag (based on morphological similarities and geographic proximity to modern Leucocarbo populations), we herein describe them as a new species, the Kohatu Shag (Leucocarbo septentrionalis). The extinction of this species further highlights the dramatic impacts Polynesians and introduced predators had on New Zealand's coastal and marine biodiversity. The prehistoric presence of at least four species of Leucocarbo shag on mainland NZ further highlights its status as a biodiversity hotspot for Phalacrocoracidae. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

PubMed Central

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

2011-01-01

The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms—which probably act in many species—can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought. PMID:21561978

Diversification dynamics of rhynchostomatian ciliates: the impact of seven intrinsic traits on speciation and extinction in a microbial group.

PubMed

Vďačný, Peter; Rajter, Ľubomír; Shazib, Shahed Uddin Ahmed; Jang, Seok Won; Shin, Mann Kyoon

2017-08-30

Ciliates are a suitable microbial model to investigate trait-dependent diversification because of their comparatively complex morphology and high diversity. We examined the impact of seven intrinsic traits on speciation, extinction, and net-diversification of rhynchostomatians, a group of comparatively large, predatory ciliates with proboscis carrying a dorsal brush (sensoric structure) and toxicysts (organelles used to kill the prey). Bayesian estimates under the binary-state speciation and extinction model indicate that two types of extrusomes and two-rowed dorsal brush raise diversification through decreasing extinction. On the other hand, the higher number of contractile vacuoles and their dorsal location likely increase diversification via elevating speciation rate. Particular nuclear characteristics, however, do not significantly differ in their diversification rates and hence lineages with various macronuclear patterns and number of micronuclei have similar probabilities to generate new species. Likelihood-based quantitative state diversification analyses suggest that rhynchostomatians conform to Cope's rule in that their diversity linearly grows with increasing body length and relative length of the proboscis. Comparison with other litostomatean ciliates indicates that rhynchostomatians are not among the cladogenically most successful lineages and their survival over several hundred million years could be associated with their comparatively large and complex bodies that reduce the risk of extinction.

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

2014-01-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.

A rapid loss of stripes: the evolutionary history of the extinct quagga

PubMed Central

Leonard, Jennifer A; Rohland, Nadin; Glaberman, Scott; Fleischer, Robert C; Caccone, Adalgisa; Hofreiter, Michael

2005-01-01

Twenty years ago, the field of ancient DNA was launched with the publication of two short mitochondrial (mt) DNA sequences from a single quagga (Equus quagga) museum skin, an extinct South African equid (Higuchi et al. 1984 Nature 312, 282–284). This was the first extinct species from which genetic information was retrieved. The DNA sequences of the quagga showed that it was more closely related to zebras than to horses. However, quagga evolutionary history is far from clear. We have isolated DNA from eight quaggas and a plains zebra (subspecies or phenotype Equus burchelli burchelli). We show that the quagga displayed little genetic diversity and very recently diverged from the plains zebra, probably during the penultimate glacial maximum. This emphasizes the importance of Pleistocene climate changes for phylogeographic patterns in African as well as Holarctic fauna. PMID:17148190

Iridium Anomaly Approximately Synchronous with Terminal Eocene Extinctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, Walter; Asaro, Frank; Michel, Helen V.; Alvarez, Luis W.

1982-05-01

An iridium anomaly has been found in coincidence with the known microtektite level in cores from Deep Sea Drilling Project site 149 in the Caribbean Sea. The iridium was probably not in the microtektites but deposited simultaneously with them; this could occur if the iridium was deposited from a dust cloud resulting from a bolide impact, as suggested for the anomaly associated with the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. Other workers have deduced that the microtektites are part of the North American strewn tektite field, which is dated at about 34 million years before present, and that the microtektite horizon in deep-sea cores is synchronous with the extinction of five radiolarian species. Mass extinctions also occur in terrestrial mammals within 4 million years of this time. The iridium anomaly and the tektites and microtektites are supportive of a major bolide impact about 34 million years ago.

Seismotectonic, structural, volcanologic, and geomorphic study of New Zealand; indigenous forest assessment in New Zealand; mapping, land use, and environmental studies in New Zealand, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Probine, M. C.; Suggate, R. P.; Mcgreevy, M. G.; Stirling, I. F. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Results of the atmospheric extinction measurements show clearly the greater opacity of the atmosphere in MSS band 4 which is due to Rayleigh scattering. Atmospheric water vapor absorbs strongly in a wide region between 900 nm and 1000 nm, and this results in a consistently higher extinction coefficient than would otherwise be expected in MSS band 7. The short term fluctuations tend to be greater in band 7 than in the other bands, and this effect is probably due to variations of water vapor concentration in the instrument line of sight. These high extinction coefficients and short term fluctuations in band 7 were observed at Menindee which is in a semi-desert region in western New South Wales.

A discrete Markov metapopulation model for persistence and extinction of species.

PubMed

Thompson, Colin J; Shtilerman, Elad; Stone, Lewi

2016-09-07

A simple discrete generation Markov metapopulation model is formulated for studying the persistence and extinction dynamics of a species in a given region which is divided into a large number of sites or patches. Assuming a linear site occupancy probability from one generation to the next we obtain exact expressions for the time evolution of the expected number of occupied sites and the mean-time to extinction (MTE). Under quite general conditions we show that the MTE, to leading order, is proportional to the logarithm of the initial number of occupied sites and in precise agreement with similar expressions for continuous time-dependent stochastic models. Our key contribution is a novel application of generating function techniques and simple asymptotic methods to obtain a second order asymptotic expression for the MTE which is extremely accurate over the entire range of model parameter values. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Dynamics of Conditioning and Extinction

PubMed Central

Killeen, Peter R.; Sanabria, Federico; Dolgov, Igor

2009-01-01

Pigeons responded to intermittently reinforced classical conditioning trials with erratic bouts of responding to the CS. Responding depended on whether the prior trial contained a peck, food, or both. A linear-persistence/learning model moved animals into and out of a response state, and a Weibull distribution for number of within-trial responses governed in-state pecking. Variations of trial and inter-trial durations caused correlated changes in rate and probability of responding, and model parameters. A novel prediction—in the protracted absence of food, response rates can plateau above zero—was validated. The model predicted smooth acquisition functions when instantiated with the probability of food, but a more accurate jagged learning curve when instantiated with trial-to-trial records of reinforcement. The Skinnerian parameter was dominant only when food could be accelerated or delayed by pecking. These experiments provide a framework for trial-by-trial accounts of conditioning and extinction that increases the information available from the data, permitting them to comment more definitively on complex contemporary models of momentum and conditioning. PMID:19839699

Mammal extinctions, body size, and paleotemperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bown, T.M.; Holroyd, P.A.; Rose, K.D.

1994-01-01

There is a general inverse relationship between the natural logarithm of tooth area (a body size indicator) of some fossil mammals and paleotemperature during approximately 2.9 million years of the early Eocene in the Bighorn Basin of northwest Wyoming. When mean temperatures became warmer, tooth areas tended to become smaller. During colder times, larger species predominated; these generally became larger or remained the same size. Paleotemperature trends also markedly affected patterns of local (and, perhaps, regional) extinction and immigration. New species appeared as immigrants during or near the hottest (smaller forms) and coldest (larger forms) intervals. Paleotemperature trend reversals commonly resulted in the ultimate extinction of both small forms (during cooling intervals) and larger forms (during warming intervals). These immigrations and extinctions mark faunal turnovers that were also modulated by sharp increases in sediment accumulation rate.

Insights into Holocene megafauna survival and extinction in southeastern Brazil from new AMS 14C dates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbe, Alex; Hubbe, Mark; Karmann, Ivo; Cruz, Francisco W.; Neves, Walter A.

2013-03-01

The extinction of late Quaternary megafauna in South America has been extensively debated in past decades. The majority of the hypotheses explaining this phenomenon argue that the extinction was the result of human activities, environmental changes, or even synergism between the two. Although still limited, a good chronological framework is imperative to discuss the plausibility of the available hypotheses. Here we present six new direct AMS 14C radiocarbon dates from the state of São Paulo (Brazil) to further characterize the chronological distribution of extinct fauna in this part of South America. The new dates make evident that ground sloths, toxodonts, and saber-toothed cats lived in the region around the Pleistocene/Holocene transition, and, in agreement with previous studies, also suggest an early Holocene survival for the ground sloth Catonyx cuvieri. Taken together with local paleoclimatic and archaeological data, the new dates do not support hunting or indirect human activities as a major cause for megafauna extinction. Although more data are required, parsimony suggests that climatic changes played a major role in this extinction event.

Ecological impact of the end-Cretaceous extinction on lamniform sharks.

PubMed

Belben, Rachel A; Underwood, Charlie J; Johanson, Zerina; Twitchett, Richard J

2017-01-01

Lamniform sharks are apex marine predators undergoing dramatic local and regional decline worldwide, with consequences for marine ecosystems that are difficult to predict. Through their long history, lamniform sharks have faced widespread extinction, and understanding those 'natural experiments' may help constrain predictions, placing the current crisis in evolutionary context. Here we show, using novel morphometric analyses of fossil shark teeth, that the end-Cretaceous extinction of many sharks had major ecological consequences. Post-extinction ecosystems supported lower diversity and disparity of lamniforms, and were dominated by significantly smaller sharks with slimmer, smoother and less robust teeth. Tooth shape is intimately associated with ecology, feeding and prey type, and by integrating data from extant sharks we show that latest Cretaceous sharks occupied similar niches to modern lamniforms, implying similar ecosystem structure and function. By comparison, species in the depauperate post-extinction community occupied niches most similar to those of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus). Our data show that quantitative tooth morphometrics can distinguish lamniform sharks due to dietary differences, providing critical insights into ecological consequences of past extinction episodes.

Ecological impact of the end-Cretaceous extinction on lamniform sharks

PubMed Central

Belben, Rachel A.; Underwood, Charlie J.; Johanson, Zerina; Twitchett, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Lamniform sharks are apex marine predators undergoing dramatic local and regional decline worldwide, with consequences for marine ecosystems that are difficult to predict. Through their long history, lamniform sharks have faced widespread extinction, and understanding those ‘natural experiments’ may help constrain predictions, placing the current crisis in evolutionary context. Here we show, using novel morphometric analyses of fossil shark teeth, that the end-Cretaceous extinction of many sharks had major ecological consequences. Post-extinction ecosystems supported lower diversity and disparity of lamniforms, and were dominated by significantly smaller sharks with slimmer, smoother and less robust teeth. Tooth shape is intimately associated with ecology, feeding and prey type, and by integrating data from extant sharks we show that latest Cretaceous sharks occupied similar niches to modern lamniforms, implying similar ecosystem structure and function. By comparison, species in the depauperate post-extinction community occupied niches most similar to those of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus). Our data show that quantitative tooth morphometrics can distinguish lamniform sharks due to dietary differences, providing critical insights into ecological consequences of past extinction episodes. PMID:28591222

Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate.

PubMed

Carlson, Colin J; Burgio, Kevin R; Dougherty, Eric R; Phillips, Anna J; Bueno, Veronica M; Clements, Christopher F; Castaldo, Giovanni; Dallas, Tad A; Cizauskas, Carrie A; Cumming, Graeme S; Doña, Jorge; Harris, Nyeema C; Jovani, Roger; Mironov, Sergey; Muellerklein, Oliver C; Proctor, Heather C; Getz, Wayne M

2017-09-01

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences.

DETERMINING TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA HOST GALAXY EXTINCTION PROBABILITIES AND A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING THE ABSORPTION-TO-REDDENING RATIO R{sub V}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cikota, Aleksandar; Deustua, Susana; Marleau, Francine, E-mail: acikota@eso.org

We investigate limits on the extinction values of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) to statistically determine the most probable color excess, E(B – V), with galactocentric distance, and use these statistics to determine the absorption-to-reddening ratio, R{sub V}, for dust in the host galaxies. We determined pixel-based dust mass surface density maps for 59 galaxies from the Key Insight on Nearby Galaxies: a Far-infrared Survey with Herschel (KINGFISH). We use SN Ia spectral templates to develop a Monte Carlo simulation of color excess E(B – V) with R{sub V} = 3.1 and investigate the color excess probabilities E(B – V) with projected radial galaxymore » center distance. Additionally, we tested our model using observed spectra of SN 1989B, SN 2002bo, and SN 2006X, which occurred in three KINGFISH galaxies. Finally, we determined the most probable reddening for Sa–Sap, Sab–Sbp, Sbc–Scp, Scd–Sdm, S0, and irregular galaxy classes as a function of R/R{sub 25}. We find that the largest expected reddening probabilities are in Sab–Sb and Sbc–Sc galaxies, while S0 and irregular galaxies are very dust poor. We present a new approach for determining the absorption-to-reddening ratio R{sub V} using color excess probability functions and find values of R{sub V} = 2.71 ± 1.58 for 21 SNe Ia observed in Sab–Sbp galaxies, and R{sub V} = 1.70 ± 0.38, for 34 SNe Ia observed in Sbc–Scp galaxies.« less

Establishment probability in newly founded populations.

PubMed

Gusset, Markus; Müller, Michael S; Grimm, Volker

2012-06-20

Establishment success in newly founded populations relies on reaching the established phase, which is defined by characteristic fluctuations of the population's state variables. Stochastic population models can be used to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations; however, so far no simple but robust method for doing so existed. To determine a critical initial number of individuals that need to be released to reach the established phase, we used a novel application of the "Wissel plot", where -ln(1 - P0(t)) is plotted against time t. This plot is based on the equation P(0)t=1-c(1)e(-ω(1t)), which relates the probability of extinction by time t, P(0)(t), to two constants: c(1) describes the probability of a newly founded population to reach the established phase, whereas ω(1) describes the population's probability of extinction per short time interval once established. For illustration, we applied the method to a previously developed stochastic population model of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). A newly founded population reaches the established phase if the intercept of the (extrapolated) linear parts of the "Wissel plot" with the y-axis, which is -ln(c(1)), is negative. For wild dogs in our model, this is the case if a critical initial number of four packs, consisting of eight individuals each, are released. The method we present to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations is generic and inferences thus are transferable to other systems across the field of conservation biology. In contrast to other methods, our approach disaggregates the components of a population's viability by distinguishing establishment from persistence.

Viability of the Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-10-11

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is tasked with setting objective and measurable criteria for delisting species or populations listed under the Endangered Species Act. Determining the acceptable threshold for extinction risk for any species or population is a challenging task, particularly when facing marked uncertainty. The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 because of a perceived decline in abundance throughout their nesting range and geographic isolation from the Russian breeding population. Previous genetic studies and modeling efforts, however, suggest that there may be dispersal from the Russian breeding population. Additionally, evidence exists of population level nonbreeding events. Research was conducted to estimate population viability of the Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders, using both an open and closed model of population process for this threatened population. Projections under a closed population model suggest this population has a 100 percent probability of extinction within 42 years. Projections under an open population model suggest that with immigration there is no probability of permanent extinction. Because of random immigration process and nonbreeding behavior, however, it is likely that this population will continue to be present in low and highly variable numbers on the breeding grounds in Alaska. Monitoring the winter population, which includes both Russian and Alaskan breeding birds, may offer a more comprehensive indication of population viability.

Isotopic paleoecology of Clovis mammoths from Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, Jessica Z.; Longstaffe, Fred J.; Ballenger, Jesse A. M.; Vance Haynes, C., Jr.

2011-11-01

The causes of megafaunal extinctions in North America have been widely debated but remain poorly understood. Mammoths (Mammuthus spp.) in the American Southwest were hunted by Clovis people during a period of rapid climate change, just before the regional onset of Younger Dryas cooling and mammoth extirpation. Thus, these mammoths may provide key insights into late Pleistocene extinction processes. Here we reconstruct the seasonal diet and climatic conditions experienced by mammoths in the San Pedro Valley of Arizona, using the carbon (13C/12C) and oxygen (18O/16O) isotope compositions of tooth enamel. These records suggest that Clovis mammoths experienced a warm, dry climate with sufficient summer rainfall to support seasonal C4 plant growth. Monsoon intensity may have been reduced relative to the preceding time period, but there is no isotopic evidence for severe drought. However, it is possible that the "Clovis drought", inferred from stratigraphic evidence, occurred suddenly at the end of the animals' lives and thus was not recorded in the enamel isotopic compositions. Unlike mammoths that lived before the Last Glacial Maximum, Clovis mammoths regularly increased C4 grass consumption during summer, probably seeking seasonally green grasslands farther from the river valley. This predictable seasonal behavior may have made mammoths easier to locate by Clovis hunters. Furthermore, Clovis mammoths probably had no previous experience of such sudden climatic change as is believed to have occurred at the time of their extinction.

Engaging the Wild: Community Building in the Context of Living Places.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

House, Freeman

1999-01-01

Timber operators, ranchers, corporate timberland owners, environmentalists, state government, and local schools in rural northern California formed an alliance to save the local salmon from extinction. The community's struggle toward consensus was an attempt to abandon the polarization that arises from power struggles. Local nonprofessionals were…

Prefrontal oscillations during recall of conditioned and extinguished fear in humans.

PubMed

Mueller, Erik M; Panitz, Christian; Hermann, Christiane; Pizzagalli, Diego A

2014-05-21

Human neuroimaging studies indicate that the anterior midcingulate cortex (AMC) and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) play important roles in the expression and extinction of fear, respectively. Electrophysiological rodent studies further indicate that oscillatory neuronal activity in homolog regions (i.e., prelimbic and infralimbic cortices) changes during fear expression and fear extinction recall. Whether similar processes occur in humans remains largely unexplored. By assessing scalp surface EEG in conjunction with LORETA source estimation of CS-related theta and gamma activity, we tested whether a priori defined ROIs in the human AMC and vmPFC similarly modulate their oscillatory activity during fear expression and extinction recall, respectively. To this end, 42 healthy individuals underwent a differential conditioning/differential extinction protocol with a Recall Test on the next day. In the Recall Test, nonextinguished versus extinguished stimuli evoked an increased differential (CS(+) vs CS(-)) response with regard to skin conductance and AMC-localized theta power. Conversely, extinguished versus nonextinguished stimuli evoked an increased differential response with regard to vmPFC-localized gamma power. Finally, individuals who failed to show a suppressed skin conductance response to the extinguished versus nonextinguished CS(+) also failed to show the otherwise observed alterations in vmPFC gamma power to extinguished CS(+). These results indicate that fear expression is associated with AMC theta activity, whereas successful fear extinction recall relates to changes in vmPFC gamma activity. The present work thereby bridges findings from prior rodent electrophysiological research and human neuroimaging studies and indicates that EEG is a valuable tool for future fear extinction research. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/347059-08$15.00/0.

A First Investigation of the UV Extinction Properties of Interstellar Dust in M33

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayton, Geoffrey

2017-08-01

It is well known that the standard Milky Way UV extinction curve does not hold even in the most nearby galaxies, the LMC and the SMC. But, it is not even known whether the standard curve holds throughout our own galaxy because our position in the disk of the Milky Way, where extinction is high, prevents us from seeing most of our galaxy at UV wavelengths. We have a unique opportunity, while we still have the capability to obtain UV spectra, to investigate the UV extinction properties across another spiral galaxy in the Local Group, M33. The small aperture and high sensitivity of HST/STIS are ideal for obtaining UV spectra of stars in the crowded fields of M33. We propose to observe 8 stars in M33 which will provide good spatial coverage. We are choosing sightlines that lie in the footprint of the M33 Legacy Survey which extends the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey. Focusing our study on the detailed properties of M33 dust grains via UV spectroscopy with HST/STIS will mean that we can directly connect the variations seen in the UV extinction curves with their environments. By selecting our sightlines in the M33 PHAT survey region, we will be able to probe a variety of potential correlations between dust grains and their environment. This proposal is part of a long-term program to investigate the extinction properties of interstellar dust across a sample of Local Group galaxies, also including M31, with different global characteristics such as metallicity and star formation activity. There is a metallicity gradient across M33 from solar to sub-solar that will be sampled with our proposed sightlines.

Sea otters, kelp forests, and the extinction of Steller's sea cow.

PubMed

Estes, James A; Burdin, Alexander; Doak, Daniel F

2016-01-26

The late Pleistocene extinction of so many large-bodied vertebrates has been variously attributed to two general causes: rapid climate change and the effects of humans as they spread from the Old World to previously uninhabited continents and islands. Many large-bodied vertebrates, especially large apex predators, maintain their associated ecosystems through top-down forcing processes, especially trophic cascades, and megaherbivores also exert an array of strong indirect effects on their communities. Thus, a third possibility for at least some of the Pleistocene extinctions is that they occurred through habitat changes resulting from the loss of these other keystone species. Here we explore the plausibility of this mechanism, using information on sea otters, kelp forests, and the recent extinction of Steller's sea cows from the Commander Islands. Large numbers of sea cows occurred in the Commander Islands at the time of their discovery by Europeans in 1741. Although extinction of these last remaining sea cows during early years of the Pacific maritime fur trade is widely thought to be a consequence of direct human overkill, we show that it is also a probable consequence of the loss of sea otters and the co-occurring loss of kelp, even if not a single sea cow had been killed directly by humans. This example supports the hypothesis that the directly caused extinctions of a few large vertebrates in the late Pleistocene may have resulted in the coextinction of numerous other species.

Sea otters, kelp forests, and the extinction of Steller’s sea cow

PubMed Central

Estes, James A.; Burdin, Alexander; Doak, Daniel F.

2016-01-01

The late Pleistocene extinction of so many large-bodied vertebrates has been variously attributed to two general causes: rapid climate change and the effects of humans as they spread from the Old World to previously uninhabited continents and islands. Many large-bodied vertebrates, especially large apex predators, maintain their associated ecosystems through top-down forcing processes, especially trophic cascades, and megaherbivores also exert an array of strong indirect effects on their communities. Thus, a third possibility for at least some of the Pleistocene extinctions is that they occurred through habitat changes resulting from the loss of these other keystone species. Here we explore the plausibility of this mechanism, using information on sea otters, kelp forests, and the recent extinction of Steller's sea cows from the Commander Islands. Large numbers of sea cows occurred in the Commander Islands at the time of their discovery by Europeans in 1741. Although extinction of these last remaining sea cows during early years of the Pacific maritime fur trade is widely thought to be a consequence of direct human overkill, we show that it is also a probable consequence of the loss of sea otters and the co-occurring loss of kelp, even if not a single sea cow had been killed directly by humans. This example supports the hypothesis that the directly caused extinctions of a few large vertebrates in the late Pleistocene may have resulted in the coextinction of numerous other species. PMID:26504217

Long-term archives reveal shifting extinction selectivity in China's postglacial mammal fauna

PubMed Central

Crees, Jennifer J.; Li, Zhipeng; Bielby, Jon; Yuan, Jing

2017-01-01

Ecosystems have been modified by human activities for millennia, and insights about ecology and extinction risk based only on recent data are likely to be both incomplete and biased. We synthesize multiple long-term archives (over 250 archaeological and palaeontological sites dating from the early Holocene to the Ming Dynasty and over 4400 historical records) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene–modern range change across China, a megadiverse country experiencing extensive current-day biodiversity loss, for 34 mammal species over three successive postglacial time intervals. Our combined zooarchaeological, palaeontological, historical and current-day datasets reveal that both phylogenetic and spatial patterns of extinction selectivity have varied through time in China, probably in response both to cumulative anthropogenic impacts (an ‘extinction filter’ associated with vulnerable species and accessible landscapes being affected earlier by human activities) and also to quantitative and qualitative changes in regional pressures. China has experienced few postglacial global species-level mammal extinctions, and most species retain over 50% of their maximum estimated Holocene range despite millennia of increasing regional human pressures, suggesting that the potential still exists for successful species conservation and ecosystem restoration. Data from long-term archives also demonstrate that herbivores have experienced more historical extinctions in China, and carnivores have until recently displayed greater resilience. Accurate assessment of patterns of biodiversity loss and the likely predictive power of current-day correlates of faunal vulnerability and resilience is dependent upon novel perspectives provided by long-term archives. PMID:29167363

Advocating through Argumentation: Supporting Claims with Evidence Helps Students Develop an Understanding of the Impact of Extinction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horton, Jessica; Golden, Barry; Parmly, Jilynn

2013-01-01

Through the construction of arguments, students are invited to make sense of the concept of a species and its connection to both extinction and local biomes. Scientific argumentation is the process by which scientists engage in discourse aimed at developing common knowledge about the natural world (Driver et al. 1994). This article describes a 5E…

A Field-Based Biomimicry Exercise Helps Students Discover Connections among Biodiversity, Form and Function, and Species Conservation during Earth's Sixth Extinction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soja, Constance M.

2014-01-01

In a first-year seminar on mass extinctions, a field-based, paleontology-focused exercise promotes active learning about Earth's biodiversity, form and function, and the biomimicry potential of ancient and modern life. Students study Devonian fossils at a local quarry and gain foundational experience in describing anatomy and relating form to…

Inbreeding and road effect zone in a Ranidae: the case of Agile frog, Rana dalmatina Bonaparte, 1840.

PubMed

Lesbarrères, David; Pagano, Alain; Lodé, Thierry

2003-08-01

Inbreeding has often been invoked in the extinction of local populations. In eleven western France populations of Agile frog studied, observed heterozygosity was significantly lower than expected in all cases, giving new evidence of such a depression in small populations. It especially occurred in ponds located near an highway rather than in undisturbed populations (FIS = 0.544 and 0.315, respectively). Thus, our results argue for a "road effect zone". Discussing about road distance and conservation policies, we propose that roads are directly involved in inbreeding and in local extinction. Thus, road construction ought to consider conservation management.

Red List of spiders (araneae) of the Wadden Sea Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vangsgård, C.; Reinke, H.-D.; Schultz, W.; van Helsdingen, P. J.

1996-10-01

In the Wadden Sea, in total, 55 species of spiders are threatened in at least one subregion. Of these, 50 species are threatened in the entire area and are therefore placed on the trilateral Red List. According to the present knowledge, no species of the listed spiders are extinct in the entire Wadden Sea area. The status of 3 species of spiders is (probably) critical; 12 species are endangered; the status of 30 species is (probably) vulnerable and of 6 species susceptible.

Brain oxytocin in social fear conditioning and its extinction: involvement of the lateral septum.

PubMed

Zoicas, Iulia; Slattery, David A; Neumann, Inga D

2014-12-01

Central oxytocin (OXT) has anxiolytic and pro-social properties both in humans and rodents, and has been proposed as a therapeutic option for anxiety and social dysfunctions. Here, we utilized a mouse model of social fear conditioning (SFC) to study the effects of OXT on social fear, and to determine whether SFC causes alterations in central OXT receptor (OXTR) binding and local OXT release. Central infusion of OXT, but not arginine vasopressin, prior to social fear extinction training completely abolished social fear expression in an OXTR-mediated fashion without affecting general anxiety or locomotion. SFC caused increased OXTR binding in the dorso-lateral septum (DLS), central amygdala, dentate gyrus, and cornu ammunis 1, which normalized after social fear extinction, suggesting that these areas form part of a brain network involved in the development and neural support of social fear. Microdialysis revealed that the increase in OXT release observed in unconditioned mice within the DLS during social fear extinction training was attenuated in conditioned mice. Consequently, increasing the availability of local OXT by infusion of OXT into the DLS reversed social fear. Thus, alterations in the brain OXT system, including altered OXTR binding and OXT release within the DLS, play an important role in SFC and social fear extinction. Thus, we suggest that the OXT system is adversely affected in disorders associated with social fear, such as social anxiety disorder and reinstalling an appropriate balance of the OXT system may alleviate some of the symptoms.

Multiple origins of life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, D. M.; Valentine, J. W.

1983-01-01

There is some indication that life may have originated readily under primitive earth conditions. If there were multiple origins of life, the result could have been a polyphyletic biota today. Using simple stochastic models for diversification and extinction, we conclude: (1) the probability of survival of life is low unless there are multiple origins, and (2) given survival of life and given as many as 10 independent origins of life, the odds are that all but one would have gone extinct, yielding the monophyletic biota we have now. The fact of the survival of our particular form of life does not imply that it was unique or superior.

Population dynamical behavior of Lotka-Volterra system under regime switching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoyue; Jiang, Daqing; Mao, Xuerong

2009-10-01

In this paper, we investigate a Lotka-Volterra system under regime switching where B(t) is a standard Brownian motion. The aim here is to find out what happens under regime switching. We first obtain the sufficient conditions for the existence of global positive solutions, stochastic permanence and extinction. We find out that both stochastic permanence and extinction have close relationships with the stationary probability distribution of the Markov chain. The limit of the average in time of the sample path of the solution is then estimated by two constants related to the stationary distribution and the coefficients. Finally, the main results are illustrated by several examples.

Revising the phylogenetic position of the extinct Mascarene Parrot Mascarinus mascarin (Linnaeus 1771) (Aves: Psittaciformes: Psittacidae).

PubMed

Podsiadlowski, Lars; Gamauf, Anita; Töpfer, Till

2017-02-01

The phylogenetic position of the extinct Mascarene Parrot Mascarinus mascarin from La Réunion has been unresolved for centuries. A recent molecular study unexpectedly placed M. mascarin within the clade of phenotypically very different Vasa parrots Coracopsis. Based on DNA extracted from the only other preserved Mascarinus specimen, we show that the previously obtained cytb sequence is probably an artificial composite of partial sequences from two other parrot species and that M. mascarin is indeed a part of the Psittacula diversification, placed close to P. eupatria and P. wardi. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

US cities can manage national hydrology and biodiversity using local infrastructure policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A.; Surendran Nair, Sujithkumar; DeRolph, Christopher R.

Cities are concentrations of socio-political power and prime architects of land transformation, while also serving as consumption hubs of “hard” water and energy infrastructures (e.g. electrical power, stormwater management, zoning, water supply, and wastewater). These infrastructures extend well outside metropolitan boundaries and impact distal river ecosystems. We used a comprehensive model to quantify the roles of anthropogenic stressors on hydrologic alteration and biodiversity in US streams and isolated the impacts stemming from hard infrastructure developments in cities. Across the conterminous US, cities’ hard infrastructures have significantly altered at least 7% of streams, which influence habitats for over 60% of Northmore » America’s fish, mussel, and crayfish species. Additionally, city infrastructures have contributed to local extinctions in 260 species and currently influence 970 indigenous species, 27% of which are in jeopardy. We find that ecosystem impacts do not scale with city size but are instead proportionate to infrastructure decisions. For example, Atlanta’s impacts by hard infrastructures extend across four major river basins, 12,500 stream km, and contribute to 100 local extinctions of aquatic species. In contrast, Las Vegas, a similar size city, impacts < 1000 stream km, leading to only 7 local extinctions. So, cities have local policy choices that can reduce future impacts to regional aquatic ecosystems as cities grow. Furthermore, by coordinating policy and communication between hard infrastructure sectors, local city governments and utilities can directly improve environmental quality in a significant fraction of the nation’s streams and aquatic biota reaching far beyond their city boundaries.« less

US cities can manage national hydrology and biodiversity using local infrastructure policy

DOE PAGES

McManamay, Ryan A.; Surendran Nair, Sujithkumar; DeRolph, Christopher R.; ...

2017-08-21

Cities are concentrations of socio-political power and prime architects of land transformation, while also serving as consumption hubs of “hard” water and energy infrastructures (e.g. electrical power, stormwater management, zoning, water supply, and wastewater). These infrastructures extend well outside metropolitan boundaries and impact distal river ecosystems. We used a comprehensive model to quantify the roles of anthropogenic stressors on hydrologic alteration and biodiversity in US streams and isolated the impacts stemming from hard infrastructure developments in cities. Across the conterminous US, cities’ hard infrastructures have significantly altered at least 7% of streams, which influence habitats for over 60% of Northmore » America’s fish, mussel, and crayfish species. Additionally, city infrastructures have contributed to local extinctions in 260 species and currently influence 970 indigenous species, 27% of which are in jeopardy. We find that ecosystem impacts do not scale with city size but are instead proportionate to infrastructure decisions. For example, Atlanta’s impacts by hard infrastructures extend across four major river basins, 12,500 stream km, and contribute to 100 local extinctions of aquatic species. In contrast, Las Vegas, a similar size city, impacts < 1000 stream km, leading to only 7 local extinctions. So, cities have local policy choices that can reduce future impacts to regional aquatic ecosystems as cities grow. Furthermore, by coordinating policy and communication between hard infrastructure sectors, local city governments and utilities can directly improve environmental quality in a significant fraction of the nation’s streams and aquatic biota reaching far beyond their city boundaries.« less

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

PubMed Central

Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Lenoir, Jonathan; Abdulhak, Sylvain; Aeschimann, David; Dullinger, Stefan; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Guisan, Antoine; Pauli, Harald; Renaud, Julien; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Van Es, Jérémie; Vittoz, Pascal; Willner, Wolfgang; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-01-01

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognised at local scales, but its importance for plant species distributions at larger spatial scales has generally been ignored. Tree cover modifies the local abiotic conditions below the canopy, notably by reducing light availability, and thus, also the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains, by affecting colonisation probabilities and local extinction risks of herbs and shrubs. To assess the effect of tree cover at both the plot- and landscape-grain sizes (approximately 10-m and 1-km), we fit Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) for the plot-level distributions of 960 species of herbs and shrubs using 6,935 vegetation plots across the European Alps. We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) at both spatial grains for each species. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-grain tree cover on plot-level plant communities. Finally, the effects on species-specific elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species distributions under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved the model performance, with the probability of the presence of shade-tolerant species increasing with increasing tree cover, whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both the plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit most strongly at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-level plant communities. With high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited narrower elevational ranges than with low tree cover whereas shade-tolerant species showed wider elevational ranges at both limits. These findings suggest that forecasts of climate-related range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modified by tree cover dynamics. PMID:26290621

Evolution of endemism on a young tropical mountain.

PubMed

Merckx, Vincent S F T; Hendriks, Kasper P; Beentjes, Kevin K; Mennes, Constantijn B; Becking, Leontine E; Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Afendy, Aqilah; Arumugam, Nivaarani; de Boer, Hugo; Biun, Alim; Buang, Matsain M; Chen, Ping-Ping; Chung, Arthur Y C; Dow, Rory; Feijen, Frida A A; Feijen, Hans; Feijen-van Soest, Cobi; Geml, József; Geurts, René; Gravendeel, Barbara; Hovenkamp, Peter; Imbun, Paul; Ipor, Isa; Janssens, Steven B; Jocqué, Merlijn; Kappes, Heike; Khoo, Eyen; Koomen, Peter; Lens, Frederic; Majapun, Richard J; Morgado, Luis N; Neupane, Suman; Nieser, Nico; Pereira, Joan T; Rahman, Homathevi; Sabran, Suzana; Sawang, Anati; Schwallier, Rachel M; Shim, Phyau-Soon; Smit, Harry; Sol, Nicolien; Spait, Maipul; Stech, Michael; Stokvis, Frank; Sugau, John B; Suleiman, Monica; Sumail, Sukaibin; Thomas, Daniel C; van Tol, Jan; Tuh, Fred Y Y; Yahya, Bakhtiar E; Nais, Jamili; Repin, Rimi; Lakim, Maklarin; Schilthuizen, Menno

2015-08-20

Tropical mountains are hot spots of biodiversity and endemism, but the evolutionary origins of their unique biotas are poorly understood. In varying degrees, local and regional extinction, long-distance colonization, and local recruitment may all contribute to the exceptional character of these communities. Also, it is debated whether mountain endemics mostly originate from local lowland taxa, or from lineages that reach the mountain by long-range dispersal from cool localities elsewhere. Here we investigate the evolutionary routes to endemism by sampling an entire tropical mountain biota on the 4,095-metre-high Mount Kinabalu in Sabah, East Malaysia. We discover that most of its unique biodiversity is younger than the mountain itself (6 million years), and comprises a mix of immigrant pre-adapted lineages and descendants from local lowland ancestors, although substantial shifts from lower to higher vegetation zones in this latter group were rare. These insights could improve forecasts of the likelihood of extinction and 'evolutionary rescue' in montane biodiversity hot spots under climate change scenarios.

GENETIC DIVERSITY AND STRUCTURE OF AN ESTUARINE FISH (FUNDULUS HETEROCLITIS) INDIGENOUS TO SITES ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY CONTAMINATED URBAN HARBOR

EPA Science Inventory

Intense directional selection on isolated populations can result in loss of genetic diversity, which if persistent, reduces adaptive potential and increases extinction probability. Phenotypic evidence of inherited tolerance suggests that toxic pollutants, specifically, polychlor...

Food web structure and interaction strength pave the way for vulnerability to extinction.

PubMed

Karlsson, Patrik; Jonsson, Tomas; Jonsson, Annie

2007-11-07

This paper focuses on how food web structure and interactions among species affects the vulnerability, due to environmental variability, to extinction of species at different positions in model food webs. Vulnerability is here not measured by a traditional extinction threshold but is instead inspired by the IUCN criteria for endangered species: an observed rapid decline in population abundance. Using model webs influenced by stochasticity with zero autocorrelation, we investigate the ecological determinants of species vulnerability, i.e. the trophic interactions between species and food web structure and how these interact with the risk of sudden drops in abundance of species. We find that (i) producers fulfil the criterion of vulnerable species more frequently than other species, (ii) food web structure is related to vulnerability, and (iii) the vulnerability of species is greater when involved in a strong trophic interaction than when not. We note that our result on the relationship between extinction risk and trophic position of species contradict previous suggestions and argue that the main reason for the discrepancy probably is due to the fact that we study the vulnerability to environmental stochasticity and not extinction risk due to overexploitation, habitat destruction or interactions with introduced species. Thus, we suggest that the vulnerability of species to environmental stochasticity may be differently related to trophic position than the vulnerability of species to other factors. Earlier research on species extinctions has looked for intrinsic traits of species that correlate with increased vulnerability to extinction. However, to fully understand the extinction process we must also consider that species interactions may affect vulnerability and that not all extinctions are the result of long, gradual reductions in species abundances. Under environmental stochasticity (which importance frequently is assumed to increase as a result of climate change) and direct and indirect interactions with other species some extinctions may occur rapidly and apparently unexpectedly. To identify the first declines of population abundances that may escalate and lead to extinctions as early as possible, we need to recognize which species are at greatest risk of entering such dangerous routes and under what circumstances. This new perspective may contribute to our understanding of the processes leading to extinction of populations and eventually species. This is especially urgent in the light of the current biodiversity crisis where a large fraction of the world's biodiversity is threatened.

Early Triassic fluctuations of the global carbon cycle: New evidence from paired carbon isotopes in the western USA basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caravaca, Gwénaël; Thomazo, Christophe; Vennin, Emmanuelle; Olivier, Nicolas; Cocquerez, Théophile; Escarguel, Gilles; Fara, Emmanuel; Jenks, James F.; Bylund, Kevin G.; Stephen, Daniel A.; Brayard, Arnaud

2017-07-01

In the aftermath of the catastrophic end-Permian mass extinction, the Early Triassic records recurrent perturbations in the carbon isotope signal, most notably during the Smithian and through the Smithian/Spathian Boundary (SSB; 1.5 myr after the Permian/Triassic boundary), which show some of the largest excursions of the Phanerozoic. The late Smithian also corresponds to major biotic turnovers and environmental changes, such as temperature fluctuations, that deeply impacted the recovery after the end-Permian mass extinction. Here we document the paired carbon isotope signal along with an analysis of the trace and major elements at the long-known Hot Springs section (southeastern Idaho, USA). This section records Early Triassic sediments from the Griesbachian-Dienerian up to the lower Spathian. We show that the organic and carbonate δ13C variations mirror the signals identified at a global scale. Particularly, the middle Smithian-SSB event represented by a negative-positive isotopic couplet is well identified and is not of diagenetic origin. We also document a positive excursion potentially corresponding to the Dienerian/Smithian Boundary. Observed Smithian-Spathian excursions are recorded similarly in both the organic and carbonate reservoirs, but the organic matter signal systematically shows unexpectedly dampened variations compared to its carbonate counterpart. Additionally, we show that variations in the net isotopic effect (i.e., Δ13C) probably resulted from a complex set of forcing parameters including either a mixing between terrestrial and marine organic matter depending on the evolution of the depositional setting, or variations in the biological fractionation. We establish that the Δ13C signal cannot be directly related to CO2-driven temperature variations at Hot Springs. Even though the carbon isotope signal mirrors the Early Triassic variations known at the global scale, the Hot Springs signal probably also reflects local influences on the carbon isotopes that are neither diagenetic nor representative of the global exogenic carbon cycle.

Extinction of Contextual Fear with Timed Exposure to Enriched Environment: A Differential Effect

PubMed Central

Hegde, Preethi; O'Mara, Shane; Laxmi, Thenkanidiyoor Rao

2017-01-01

Background Extinction of fear memory depends on the environmental and emotional cues. Furthermore, consolidation of extinction is also dependent on the environmental exposure. But, the relationship of the time of the exposure to a variety of environmental cues is not well known. The important region involved in facilitation of extinction of fear memory is through diversion of the flow of information leaving the lateral nucleus of amygdala. Purpose The study aimed to address a question to explain how these brain regions react to environmental stimulation during the retention and extinction of fear memory. Methods An enriched environment (EE) is assumed to mediate extinction of fear memory, we examined the apparent discrepancy between the effects of defensive response, the freezing behavior induced by Pavlovian classical fear conditioning by subjecting them to variance in the timing to EE. The different timing of EE exposure was 10 days of EE either before fear conditioning and/or after extinction training to the rats. The local field potentials was recorded from CA1 hippocampus, lateral nucleus of amygdala and infralimbic region of medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) during the fear learning and extinction from the control rats and rats exposed to EE before and after fear conditioning. Results Exposure to EE before the fear conditioning and after extinction training was more effective in the extinction fear memory. In addition, we also found switching from exploratory locomotion to freezing during retention of contextual fear memory which was associated with decreased theta power and reduced synchronized theta oscillations in CA1-hippocampus, lateral nucleus of amygdala, and infralimbic region of mPFC. Conclusion Thus, we propose that the timing of exposure to EE play a key role in the extinction of fear memory. PMID:28588364

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change

PubMed Central

Petersen, Sierra V.; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C.

2016-01-01

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8±3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change. PMID:27377632

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change.

PubMed

Petersen, Sierra V; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C

2016-07-05

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8±3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change.

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Sierra V.; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C.

2016-07-01

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8+/-3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change.

THE OBSERVED RELATION BETWEEN STELLAR MASS, DUST EXTINCTION, AND STAR FORMATION RATE IN LOCAL GALAXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zahid, H. J.; Kewley, L. J.; Kudritzki, R. P.

In this study, we investigate the relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and star formation rate (SFR) using {approx}150,000 star-forming galaxies from SDSS DR7. We show that the relation between dust extinction and SFR changes with stellar mass. For galaxies at the same stellar mass, dust extinction is anti-correlated with the SFR at stellar masses <10{sup 10} M {sub Sun }. There is a sharp transition in the relation at a stellar mass of 10{sup 10} M {sub Sun }. At larger stellar masses, dust extinction is positively correlated with the SFR for galaxies at the same stellar mass. Themore » observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR presented in this study helps to confirm similar trends observed in the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR. The relation reported in this study provides important new constraints on the physical processes governing the chemical evolution of galaxies. The correlation between SFR and dust extinction for galaxies with stellar masses >10{sup 10} M {sub Sun} is shown to extend to the population of quiescent galaxies suggesting that the physical processes responsible for the observed relation between stellar mass, dust extinction, and SFR may be related to the processes leading to the shutdown of star formation in galaxies.« less

Periodic extinction of families and genera

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, D. M.; Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1986-01-01

Eight major episodes of biological extinction of marine families over the past 250 million years stand significantly above local background (P < 0.05). These events are more pronounced when analyzed at the level of genus, and generic data exhibit additional apparent extinction events in the Aptian (Cretaceous) and Pliocene (Tertiary) Stages. Time-series analysis of these records strongly suggests a 26-million-year periodicity. This conclusion is robust even when adjusted for simultaneous testing of many trial periods. When the time series is limited to the four best-dated events (Cenomanian, Maestrichtian, upper Eocene, and middle Miocene), the hypothesis of randomness is also rejected for the 26-million-year period (P < 0.0002).

Abrupt climate change and extinction events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowley, Thomas J.

1988-01-01

There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

Pervasive Defaunation of Forest Remnants in a Tropical Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Canale, Gustavo R.; Peres, Carlos A.; Guidorizzi, Carlos E.; Gatto, Cassiano A. Ferreira; Kierulff, Maria Cecília M.

2012-01-01

Tropical deforestation and forest fragmentation are among the most important biodiversity conservation issues worldwide, yet local extinctions of millions of animal and plant populations stranded in unprotected forest remnants remain poorly explained. Here, we report unprecedented rates of local extinctions of medium to large-bodied mammals in one of the world's most important tropical biodiversity hotspots. We scrutinized 8,846 person-years of local knowledge to derive patch occupancy data for 18 mammal species within 196 forest patches across a 252,669-km2 study region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We uncovered a staggering rate of local extinctions in the mammal fauna, with only 767 from a possible 3,528 populations still persisting. On average, forest patches retained 3.9 out of 18 potential species occupancies, and geographic ranges had contracted to 0–14.4% of their former distributions, including five large-bodied species that had been extirpated at a regional scale. Forest fragments were highly accessible to hunters and exposed to edge effects and fires, thereby severely diminishing the predictive power of species-area relationships, with the power model explaining only ∼9% of the variation in species richness per patch. Hence, conventional species-area curves provided over-optimistic estimates of species persistence in that most forest fragments had lost species at a much faster rate than predicted by habitat loss alone. PMID:22905103

The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood

PubMed Central

Purcell, Steven W.; Polidoro, Beth A.; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U.; Mercier, Annie

2014-01-01

Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates. PMID:24598425

The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood.

PubMed

Purcell, Steven W; Polidoro, Beth A; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U; Mercier, Annie

2014-04-22

Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates.

The rediscovered Hula painted frog is a living fossil.

PubMed

Biton, Rebecca; Geffen, Eli; Vences, Miguel; Cohen, Orly; Bailon, Salvador; Rabinovich, Rivka; Malka, Yoram; Oron, Talya; Boistel, Renaud; Brumfeld, Vlad; Gafny, Sarig

2013-01-01

Amphibian declines are seen as an indicator of the onset of a sixth mass extinction of life on earth. Because of a combination of factors such as habitat destruction, emerging pathogens and pollutants, over 156 amphibian species have not been seen for several decades, and 34 of these were listed as extinct by 2004. Here we report the rediscovery of the Hula painted frog, the first amphibian to have been declared extinct. We provide evidence that not only has this species survived undetected in its type locality for almost 60 years but also that it is a surviving member of an otherwise extinct genus of alytid frogs, Latonia, known only as fossils from Oligocene to Pleistocene in Europe. The survival of this living fossil is a striking example of resilience to severe habitat degradation during the past century by an amphibian.

Evidence for historical human-induced extinctions of vertebrate species on La Désirade (French West Indies)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudadi-Maligne, Myriam; Bailon, Salvador; Bochaton, Corentin; Casagrande, Fabrice; Grouard, Sandrine; Serrand, Nathalie; Lenoble, Arnaud

2016-01-01

Pit cave 6 on Pointe Gros Rempart (Baie-Mahault, La Désirade, French West Indies) is a stratified fossil-bearing site. While the archaeological material and faunal remains from the oldest assemblage demonstrate it to have formed during the Amerindian period, the second assemblage dates to the first one-hundred years of the island's colonial period (mid-18th to mid-19th centuries). Faunal analysis revealed the presence of 4 now locally extinct or extinct species, three of which have never before been documented on La Désirade (Ameiva sp., Leiocephalus cf. cuneus and Alsophis sp.). Changing faunal spectrums (invertebrates and vertebrates) due to environmental destabilisation combined with aspects of the island's colonial economy demonstrate habitat degradation and over-grazing to be the principal causes of extinctions and or extirpations.

PROJECTED POPULATION-LEVEL EFFECTS OF THIOBENCARB EXPOSURE ON THE MYSID, AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA, AND EXTINCTION PROBABILITY IN A CONCENTRATION-DECAY EXPOSURE SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Population-level effects of the mysid, Americamysis bahia, exposed to varying thiobencarb concentrations were estimated using stage-structured matrix models. A deterministic density-independent matrix model estimated the decrease in population growth rate, l, with increas...

Species sorting and patch dynamics in harlequin metacommunities affect the relative importance of environment and space.

PubMed

Leibold, Mathew A; Loeuille, Nicolas

2015-12-01

Metacommunity theory indicates that variation in local community structure can be partitioned into components including those related to local environmental conditions vs. spatial effects and that these can be quantified using statistical methods based on variation partitioning. It has been hypothesized that joint associations of community composition with environment and space could be due to patch dynamics involving colonization-extinction processes in environmentally heterogeneous landscapes but this has yet to be theoretically shown. We develop a two-patch, type-two, species competition model in such a "harlequin" landscape (where different patches have different environments) to evaluate how composition is related to environmental and spatial effects as a function of background extinction rate. Using spatially implicit analytical models, we find that the environmental association of community composition declines with extinction rate as expected. Using spatially explicit simulation models, we further find that there is an increase in the spatial structure with extinction due to spatial patterning into clusters that are not related to environmental conditions but that this increase is limited. Natural metacommunities often show both environment and spatial determination even under conditions of relatively high isolation and these could be more easily explained by our model than alternative metacommunity models.

The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

2017-06-14

Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

PubMed

Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

2015-12-01

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in < 1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to -50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Small but Powerful: Top Predator Local Extinction Affects Ecosystem Structure and Function in an Intermittent Stream

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Lozano, Pablo; Verkaik, Iraima; Rieradevall, Maria; Prat, Narcís

2015-01-01

Top predator loss is a major global problem, with a current trend in biodiversity loss towards high trophic levels that modifies most ecosystems worldwide. Most research in this area is focused on large-bodied predators, despite the high extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fish that often act as apex consumers. Consequently, it remains unknown if intermittent streams are affected by the consequences of top-predators’ extirpations. The aim of our research was to determine how this global problem affects intermittent streams and, in particular, if the loss of a small-bodied top predator (1) leads to a ‘mesopredator release’, affects primary consumers and changes whole community structures, and (2) triggers a cascade effect modifying the ecosystem function. To address these questions, we studied the top-down effects of a small endangered fish species, Barbus meridionalis (the Mediterranean barbel), conducting an enclosure/exclosure mesocosm experiment in an intermittent stream where B. meridionalis became locally extinct following a wildfire. We found that top predator absence led to ‘mesopredator release’, and also to ‘prey release’ despite intraguild predation, which contrasts with traditional food web theory. In addition, B. meridionalis extirpation changed whole macroinvertebrate community composition and increased total macroinvertebrate density. Regarding ecosystem function, periphyton primary production decreased in apex consumer absence. In this study, the apex consumer was functionally irreplaceable; its local extinction led to the loss of an important functional role that resulted in major changes to the ecosystem’s structure and function. This study evidences that intermittent streams can be affected by the consequences of apex consumers’ extinctions, and that the loss of small-bodied top predators can lead to large ecosystem changes. We recommend the reintroduction of small-bodied apex consumers to systems where they have been extirpated, to restore ecosystem structure and function. PMID:25714337

Cool-Flame Burning and Oscillations of Envelope Diffusion Flames in Microgravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Fumiaki; Katta, Viswanath R.; Hicks, Michael C.

2018-05-01

The two-stage combustion, local extinction, and flame-edge oscillations have been observed in single-droplet combustion tests conducted on the International Space Station. To understand such dynamic behavior of initially enveloped diffusion flames in microgravity, two-dimensional (axisymmetric) computation is performed for a gaseous n-heptane flame using a time-dependent code with a detailed reaction mechanism (127 species and 1130 reactions), diffusive transport, and a simple radiation model (for CO2, H2O, CO, CH4, and soot). The calculated combustion characteristics vary profoundly with a slight movement of air surrounding a fuel source. In a near-quiescent environment (≤ 2 mm/s), with a sufficiently large fuel injection velocity (1 cm/s), extinction of a growing spherical diffusion flame due to radiative heat losses is predicted at the flame temperature at ≈ 1200 K. The radiative extinction is typically followed by a transition to the "cool flame" burning regime (due to the negative temperature coefficient in the low-temperature chemistry) with a reaction zone (at ≈ 700 K) in close proximity to the fuel source. By contrast, if there is a slight relative velocity (≈ 3 mm/s) between the fuel source and the air, a local extinction of the envelope diffusion flame is predicted downstream at ≈ 1200 K, followed by periodic flame-edge oscillations. At higher relative velocities (4 to 10 mm/s), the locally extinguished flame becomes steady state. The present 2D computational approach can help in understanding further the non-premixed "cool flame" structure and flame-flow interactions in microgravity environments.

Star Cluster Properties in Two LEGUS Galaxies Computed with Stochastic Stellar Population Synthesis Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumholz, Mark R.; Adamo, Angela; Fumagalli, Michele; Wofford, Aida; Calzetti, Daniela; Lee, Janice C.; Whitmore, Bradley C.; Bright, Stacey N.; Grasha, Kathryn; Gouliermis, Dimitrios A.; Kim, Hwihyun; Nair, Preethi; Ryon, Jenna E.; Smith, Linda J.; Thilker, David; Ubeda, Leonardo; Zackrisson, Erik

2015-10-01

We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.

DNA from the Past Informs Ex Situ Conservation for the Future: An “Extinct” Species of Galápagos Tortoise Identified in Captivity

PubMed Central

Russello, Michael A.; Poulakakis, Nikos; Gibbs, James P.; Tapia, Washington; Benavides, Edgar; Powell, Jeffrey R.; Caccone, Adalgisa

2010-01-01

Background Although not unusual to find captive relicts of species lost in the wild, rarely are presumed extinct species rediscovered outside of their native range. A recent study detected living descendents of an extinct Galápagos tortoise species (Chelonoidis elephantopus) once endemic to Floreana Island on the neighboring island of Isabela. This finding adds to the growing cryptic diversity detected among these species in the wild. There also exists a large number of Galápagos tortoises in captivity of ambiguous origin. The recently accumulated population-level haplotypic and genotypic data now available for C. elephantopus add a critical reference population to the existing database of 11 extant species for investigating the origin of captive individuals of unknown ancestry. Methodology/Findings We reanalyzed mitochondrial DNA control region haplotypes and microsatellite genotypes of 156 captive individuals using an expanded reference database that included all extant Galápagos tortoise species as well as the extinct species from Floreana. Nine individuals (six females and three males) exhibited strong signatures of Floreana ancestry and a high probability of assignment to C. elephantopus as detected by Bayesian assignment and clustering analyses of empirical and simulated data. One male with high assignment probability to C. elephantopus based on microsatellite genotypic data also possessed a “Floreana-like” mitochondrial DNA haplotype. Significance Historical DNA analysis of museum specimens has provided critical spatial and temporal components to ecological, evolutionary, taxonomic and conservation-related research, but rarely has it informed ex situ species recovery efforts. Here, the availability of population-level genotypic data from the extinct C. elephantopus enabled the identification of nine Galápagos tortoise individuals of substantial conservation value that were previously misassigned to extant species of varying conservation status. As all captive individuals of C. elephantopus ancestry currently reside at a centralized breeding facility on Santa Cruz, these findings permit breeding efforts to commence in support of the reestablishment of this extinct species to its native range. PMID:20084268

Identifying the pollen of an extinct spruce species in the Late Quaternary sediments of the Tunica Hills region, south-eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luke Mander,; Jacklyn Rodriguez,; Pietra G. Mueller,; Jackson, Stephen T.; Surangi W. Punyasena,

2014-01-01

Late Quaternary fluvial deposits in the Tunica Hills region of Louisiana and Mississippi are rich in spruce macrofossils of the extinct species Picea critchfieldii, the one recognized plant extinction of the Late Quaternary. However, the morphology of P. critchfieldii pollen is unknown, presenting a barrier to the interpretation of pollen spectra from the last glacial of North America. To address this issue, we undertook a morphometric study of Picea pollen from Tunica Hills. Morphometric data, together with qualitative observations of pollen morphology using Apotome fluorescence microscopy, indicate that Picea pollen from Tunica Hills is morphologically distinct from the pollen of P. glauca, P. mariana and P. rubens. Measurements of grain length, corpus width and corpus height indicate that Picea pollen from Tunica Hills is larger than the pollen of P. mariana and P. rubens, and is slightly larger than P. glauca pollen. We argue that the morphologically distinctive Tunica Hills Picea pollen was probably produced by the extinct spruce species P. critchfieldii. These morphological differences could be used to identify P. critchfieldii in existing and newly collected pollen records, which would refine its paleoecologic and biogeographic history and clarify the nature and timing of its extinction in the Late Quaternary.

Affective-associative two-process theory: a neurocomputational account of partial reinforcement extinction effects.

PubMed

Lowe, Robert; Almér, Alexander; Billing, Erik; Sandamirskaya, Yulia; Balkenius, Christian

2017-12-01

The partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE) is an experimentally established phenomenon: behavioural response to a given stimulus is more persistent when previously inconsistently rewarded than when consistently rewarded. This phenomenon is, however, controversial in animal/human learning theory. Contradictory findings exist regarding when the PREE occurs. One body of research has found a within-subjects PREE, while another has found a within-subjects reversed PREE (RPREE). These opposing findings constitute what is considered the most important problem of PREE for theoreticians to explain. Here, we provide a neurocomputational account of the PREE, which helps to reconcile these seemingly contradictory findings of within-subjects experimental conditions. The performance of our model demonstrates how omission expectancy, learned according to low probability reward, comes to control response choice following discontinuation of reward presentation (extinction). We find that a PREE will occur when multiple responses become controlled by omission expectation in extinction, but not when only one omission-mediated response is available. Our model exploits the affective states of reward acquisition and reward omission expectancy in order to differentially classify stimuli and differentially mediate response choice. We demonstrate that stimulus-response (retrospective) and stimulus-expectation-response (prospective) routes are required to provide a necessary and sufficient explanation of the PREE versus RPREE data and that Omission representation is key for explaining the nonlinear nature of extinction data.

Environmental conditions as the cause of the great mass extinction of marine organisms in the Late Devonian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barash, M. S.

2017-08-01

During the Late Devonian extinction, 70-82% of all marine species disappeared. The main causes of this mass extinction include tectonic activity, climate and sea-level fluctuations, volcanism, and the collision of the Earth with cosmic bodies (impact events). The major causes are considered to be volcanism accompanying formation of the Viluy traps and, probably, basaltic magmatism in the Southern Urals, alkaline magmatism within the East European platform, and volcanism in northern Iran and northern and southern China. Several large impact craters of Late Devonian age have been documented in different parts of the world. The available data indicate that this time period on the Earth was marked by two major sequences of events: terrestrial events that resulted in extensive volcanism and cosmic (or impact) events. They produced similar effects such as emissions of harmful chemical compounds and aerosols to cause greenhouse warming and the darkening of the atmosphere, which prevented photosynthesis and cause ocean stagnation and anoxia. This disrupted the food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity. As a result, all vital processes were disturbed and a large part of the marine biota became extinct.

Genetic control of invasive plants species using selfish genetic elements

PubMed Central

Hodgins, Kathryn A; Rieseberg, Loren; Otto, Sarah P

2009-01-01

Invasive plants cause substantial environmental damage and economic loss. Here, we explore the possibility that a selfish genetic element found in plants called cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS) could be exploited for weed control. CMS is caused by mutations in the mitochondrial genome that sterilize male reproductive organs. We developed an analytical model and a spatial simulation to assess the use of CMS alleles to manage weed populations. Specifically, we examined how fertility, selfing, pollen limitation and dispersal influenced extinction rate and time until extinction in populations where CMS arises. We found that the introduction of a CMS allele can cause rapid population extinction, but only under a restricted set of conditions. Both models suggest that the CMS strategy will be appropriate for species where pollen limitation is negligible, inbreeding depression is high and the fertility advantage of females over hermaphrodites is substantial. In general, spatial structure did not have a strong influence on the simulation outcome, although low pollen dispersal and intermediate levels of seed dispersal tended to reduce population extinction rates. Given these results, the introduction of CMS alleles into a population of invasive plants probably represents an effective control method for only a select number of species. PMID:25567898

Expansion or extinction: deterministic and stochastic two-patch models with Allee effects.

PubMed

Kang, Yun; Lanchier, Nicolas

2011-06-01

We investigate the impact of Allee effect and dispersal on the long-term evolution of a population in a patchy environment. Our main focus is on whether a population already established in one patch either successfully invades an adjacent empty patch or undergoes a global extinction. Our study is based on the combination of analytical and numerical results for both a deterministic two-patch model and a stochastic counterpart. The deterministic model has either two, three or four attractors. The existence of a regime with exactly three attractors only appears when patches have distinct Allee thresholds. In the presence of weak dispersal, the analysis of the deterministic model shows that a high-density and a low-density populations can coexist at equilibrium in nearby patches, whereas the analysis of the stochastic model indicates that this equilibrium is metastable, thus leading after a large random time to either a global expansion or a global extinction. Up to some critical dispersal, increasing the intensity of the interactions leads to an increase of both the basin of attraction of the global extinction and the basin of attraction of the global expansion. Above this threshold, for both the deterministic and the stochastic models, the patches tend to synchronize as the intensity of the dispersal increases. This results in either a global expansion or a global extinction. For the deterministic model, there are only two attractors, while the stochastic model no longer exhibits a metastable behavior. In the presence of strong dispersal, the limiting behavior is entirely determined by the value of the Allee thresholds as the global population size in the deterministic and the stochastic models evolves as dictated by their single-patch counterparts. For all values of the dispersal parameter, Allee effects promote global extinction in terms of an expansion of the basin of attraction of the extinction equilibrium for the deterministic model and an increase of the probability of extinction for the stochastic model.

Dispositional cognitive reappraisal modulates the neural correlates of fear acquisition and extinction.

PubMed

Hermann, Andrea; Keck, Tanja; Stark, Rudolf

2014-09-01

Adverse learning experiences play a significant role in the etiology of anxiety disorders. However, not all individuals experiencing negative events develop heightened anxiety. This is possibly due to individual differences in the regulation of negative emotions associated with these negative events. Cognitive reappraisal is defined as reinterpreting an emotion-eliciting situation in a way that changes its emotional impact. A more frequent use of cognitive reappraisal in daily life has been shown to be more adaptive. However, no study to date examined the association of dispositional cognitive reappraisal with emotional learning, in order to elucidate individual differences in negative emotional responses towards aversive events. The goal of this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study was to investigate the association of dispositional cognitive reappraisal with subjective, electrodermal and neural correlates of fear acquisition and extinction. Data of 41 healthy individuals, who participated in a socially relevant differential conditioning paradigm (acquisition and extinction learning: day 1, extinction recall: day 2), were acquired. Dispositional cognitive reappraisal was negatively associated with right insula, and hippocampus activation during acquisition. Furthermore, the reduction of self-reported conditioned fear during extinction learning as well as reduced insula and enhanced rostral anterior cingulate cortex activation during extinction learning was related to cognitive reappraisal. In addition, reduced recovery of conditioned arousal, reduced anterior cingulate and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex activation and enhanced ventromedial prefrontal cortex activation during extinction recall was observed in individuals with higher cognitive reappraisal scores. The results indicate that dispositional cognitive reappraisal modulates subjective and neural correlates of fear conditioning, probably leading to reduced acquisition and stronger extinction learning and recall. These results point to the important role of dispositional cognitive reappraisal in the development and modification of conditioned emotional responses and might further improve our understanding of anxiety disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Carlson, Colin J.; Burgio, Kevin R.; Dougherty, Eric R.; Phillips, Anna J.; Bueno, Veronica M.; Clements, Christopher F.; Castaldo, Giovanni; Dallas, Tad A.; Cizauskas, Carrie A.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Doña, Jorge; Harris, Nyeema C.; Jovani, Roger; Mironov, Sergey; Muellerklein, Oliver C.; Proctor, Heather C.; Getz, Wayne M.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences. PMID:28913417

Alien plant invasions and native plant extinctions: a six-threshold framework

PubMed Central

Downey, Paul O.; Richardson, David M.

2016-01-01

Biological invasions are widely acknowledged as a major threat to global biodiversity. Species from all major taxonomic groups have become invasive. The range of impacts of invasive taxa and the overall magnitude of the threat is increasing. Plants comprise the biggest and best-studied group of invasive species. There is a growing debate; however, regarding the nature of the alien plant threat—in particular whether the outcome is likely to be the widespread extinction of native plant species. The debate has raised questions on whether the threat posed by invasive plants to native plants has been overstated. We provide a conceptual framework to guide discussion on this topic, in which the threat posed by invasive plants is considered in the context of a progression from no impact through to extinction. We define six thresholds along the ‘extinction trajectory’, global extinction being the final threshold. Although there are no documented examples of either ‘in the wild’ (Threshold 5) or global extinctions (Threshold 6) of native plants that are attributable solely to plant invasions, there is evidence that native plants have crossed or breached other thresholds along the extinction trajectory due to the impacts associated with plant invasions. Several factors may be masking where native species are on the trajectory; these include a lack of appropriate data to accurately map the position of species on the trajectory, the timeframe required to definitively state that extinctions have occurred and management interventions. Such interventions, focussing mainly on Thresholds 1–3 (a declining population through to the local extinction of a population), are likely to alter the extinction trajectory of some species. The critical issue for conservation managers is the trend, because interventions must be implemented before extinctions occur. Thus the lack of evidence for extinctions attributable to plant invasions does not mean we should disregard the broader threat. PMID:27422543

Alien plant invasions and native plant extinctions: a six-threshold framework.

PubMed

Downey, Paul O; Richardson, David M

2016-01-01

Biological invasions are widely acknowledged as a major threat to global biodiversity. Species from all major taxonomic groups have become invasive. The range of impacts of invasive taxa and the overall magnitude of the threat is increasing. Plants comprise the biggest and best-studied group of invasive species. There is a growing debate; however, regarding the nature of the alien plant threat-in particular whether the outcome is likely to be the widespread extinction of native plant species. The debate has raised questions on whether the threat posed by invasive plants to native plants has been overstated. We provide a conceptual framework to guide discussion on this topic, in which the threat posed by invasive plants is considered in the context of a progression from no impact through to extinction. We define six thresholds along the 'extinction trajectory', global extinction being the final threshold. Although there are no documented examples of either 'in the wild' (Threshold 5) or global extinctions (Threshold 6) of native plants that are attributable solely to plant invasions, there is evidence that native plants have crossed or breached other thresholds along the extinction trajectory due to the impacts associated with plant invasions. Several factors may be masking where native species are on the trajectory; these include a lack of appropriate data to accurately map the position of species on the trajectory, the timeframe required to definitively state that extinctions have occurred and management interventions. Such interventions, focussing mainly on Thresholds 1-3 (a declining population through to the local extinction of a population), are likely to alter the extinction trajectory of some species. The critical issue for conservation managers is the trend, because interventions must be implemented before extinctions occur. Thus the lack of evidence for extinctions attributable to plant invasions does not mean we should disregard the broader threat. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Loss or gain? Invasive aliens and biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea.

PubMed

Galil, B S

2007-01-01

More than 500 alien species were listed from the Mediterranean Sea. Though no extinction of a native species is known, sudden decline in abundance, and even local extirpations, concurrent with proliferation of aliens, had been recorded. Examination of the profound ecological impacts of some of the most conspicuous invasive alien species underscores their role, among multiple anthropogenic stressors, in altering the infralittoral communities. Local population losses and niche contraction of native species may not induce immediate extirpation, but they augur reduction of genetic diversity, loss of functions, processes, and habitat structure, increase the risk of decline and extinction, and lead to biotic homogenization. The relevant environmental policy and management framework is discussed.

PI3-kinase cascade has a differential role in acquisition and extinction of conditioned fear memory in juvenile and adult rats.

PubMed

Slouzkey, Ilana; Maroun, Mouna

2016-12-01

The basolateral amygdala (BLA), medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) circuit, plays a crucial role in acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Extinction of aversive memories is mediated, at least in part, by the phosphoinositide-3 kinase (PI3K)/Akt pathway in adult rats. There is recent interest in the neural mechanisms that mediate fear and extinction in juvenile animals and whether these mechanisms are distinctive from those in adult animals. In the present study, we examined (1) changes in phosphorylation of Akt in the BLA and mPFC after fear conditioning and extinction in juvenile and adult rats and (2) the effect of BLA and mPFC localized inhibition of the PI3K following acquisition and extinction of contextual fear memory. Our results show that Akt phosphorylation is increased following acquisition of contextual fear learning in the BLA but not in the mPFC in adult and juvenile rats. Extinction learning was not associated with changes in Akt phosphorylation. Although there were no differences in the pattern of phosphorylation of Akt either in adult or juvenile rats, microinjection of the PI3K inhibitor, LY294002, into the BLA or mPFC elicited differential effects on fear memory acquisition and extinction, depending on the site and timing of the microinjection, as well as on the age of the animal. These results suggest that PI3K/Akt has a differential role in formation, retrieval, and extinction of contextual fear memory in juvenile and adult animals, and point to developmental differences between adult and juvenile rats in mechanisms of extinction. © 2016 Slouzkey and Maroun; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Infralimbic Neurotrophin-3 Infusion Rescues Fear Extinction Impairment in a Mouse Model of Pathological Fear.

PubMed

D'Amico, Davide; Gener, Thomas; de Lagrán, Maria Martínez; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V; Santos, Mónica; Dierssen, Mara

2017-01-01

The inability to properly extinguish fear memories constitutes the foundation of several anxiety disorders, including panic disorder. Recent findings show that boosting prefrontal cortex synaptic plasticity potentiates fear extinction, suggesting that therapies that augment synaptic plasticity could prove useful in rescue of fear extinction impairments in this group of disorders. Previously, we reported that mice with selective deregulation of neurotrophic tyrosine kinase receptor, type 3 expression (TgNTRK3) exhibit increased fear memories accompanied by impaired extinction, congruent with an altered activation pattern of the amygdala-hippocampus-medial prefrontal cortex fear circuit. Here we explore the specific role of neurotrophin 3 and its cognate receptor in the medial prefrontal cortex, and its involvement in fear extinction in a pathological context. In this study we combined molecular, behavioral, in vivo pharmacology and ex vivo electrophysiological recordings in TgNTRK3 animals during contextual fear extinction processes. We show that neurotrophin 3 protein levels are increased upon contextual fear extinction in wild-type animals but not in TgNTRK3 mice, which present deficits in infralimbic long-term potentiation. Importantly, infusion of neurotrophin 3 to the medial prefrontal cortex of TgNTRK3 mice rescues contextual fear extinction and ex vivo local application improves medial prefrontal cortex synaptic plasticity. This effect is blocked by inhibition of extracellular signal-regulated kinase phosphorylation through peripheral administration of SL327, suggesting that rescue occurs via this pathway. Our results suggest that stimulating neurotrophin 3-dependent medial prefrontal cortex plasticity could restore contextual fear extinction deficit in pathological fear and could constitute an effective treatment for fear-related disorders.

A new interpretation of Serkowski's polarization law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papoular, R.

2018-06-01

The basic tenets of the alternative interpretation to be presented here are that the spectral profiles of the star light polarization peaks observed in the visible and near IR are a result of the optical properties of silicate grains in the same spectral range, not of the grain size, provided it remains within the range of Rayleigh's approximation. The silicate properties are those obtained experimentally by Scott and Duley (1996) for the non-iron bearing amorphous forsterite and enstatite. The whole range of observed Serkowski polarization profiles can be simulated with mixtures made of forsterite plus an increasing fraction (0 to 0.5) of enstatite as the spectral peak shifts from 0.8 to 0.3 μm. Fits to individual observed polarization spectra are also demonstrated. The optical extinction of silicates in the vis/IR (the "transparency range") can be understood by analogy with the thoroughly studied amorphous hydrogenated carbons and amorphous silica. It is due to structural disorder (dangling bonds and coordination defects) and impurities, which give rise to electronic states in the forbidden gap of semi-conductors. Because they are partially localized, their extinction power is dramatically reduced and has been ignored or simply described by a low, flat plateau. As their number density depends on the environment, one expects variations in the ratio of optical extinction coefficients in the visible and mid-IR. It is also argued that the measured steep rise of extinction beyond 3 μm-1 into the UV is due to atomic transitions, and so cannot give rise to coherent molecular polarization, but only localized extinction.

Possible combined effects of climate change, deforestation, and harvesting on the epiphyte Catopsis compacta: a multidisciplinary approach

PubMed Central

del Castillo, Rafael F; Trujillo-Argueta, Sonia; Rivera-García, Raul; Gómez-Ocampo, Zaneli; Mondragón-Chaparro, Demetria

2013-01-01

Climate change, habitat loss, and harvesting are potential drivers of species extinction. These factors are unlikely to act on isolation, but their combined effects are poorly understood. We explored these effects in Catopsis compacta, an epiphytic bromeliad commercially harvested in Oaxaca, Mexico. We analyzed local climate change projections, the dynamics of the vegetation patches, the distribution of Catopsis in the patches, together with population genetics and demographic information. A drying and warming climate trend projected by most climate change models may contribute to explain the poor forest regeneration. Catopsis shows a positive mean stochastic population growth. A PVA reveals that quasi-extinction probabilities are not significantly affected by the current levels of harvesting or by a high drop in the frequency of wet years (2%) but increase sharply when harvesting intensity duplicates. Genetic analyses show a high population genetic diversity, and no evidences of population subdivision or a past bottleneck. Colonization mostly takes place on hosts at the edges of the fragments. Over the last 27 years, the vegetation cover has being lost at a 0.028 years−1 rate, but fragment perimeter has increased 0.076 years−1. The increases in fragment perimeter and vegetation openness, likely caused by climate change and logging, appear to increase the habitat of Catopsis, enhance gene flow, and maintain a growing and highly genetically diverse population, in spite of harvesting. Our study evidences conflicting requirements between the epiphytes and their hosts and antagonistic effects of climate change and fragmentation with harvesting on a species that can exploit open spaces in the forest. A full understanding of the consequences of potential threatening factors on species persistence or extinction requires the inspection of the interactions of these factors among each other and their effects on both the focus species and the species on which this species depends. PMID:24198951

Possible combined effects of climate change, deforestation, and harvesting on the epiphyte Catopsis compacta: a multidisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Del Castillo, Rafael F; Trujillo-Argueta, Sonia; Rivera-García, Raul; Gómez-Ocampo, Zaneli; Mondragón-Chaparro, Demetria

2013-10-01

Climate change, habitat loss, and harvesting are potential drivers of species extinction. These factors are unlikely to act on isolation, but their combined effects are poorly understood. We explored these effects in Catopsis compacta, an epiphytic bromeliad commercially harvested in Oaxaca, Mexico. We analyzed local climate change projections, the dynamics of the vegetation patches, the distribution of Catopsis in the patches, together with population genetics and demographic information. A drying and warming climate trend projected by most climate change models may contribute to explain the poor forest regeneration. Catopsis shows a positive mean stochastic population growth. A PVA reveals that quasi-extinction probabilities are not significantly affected by the current levels of harvesting or by a high drop in the frequency of wet years (2%) but increase sharply when harvesting intensity duplicates. Genetic analyses show a high population genetic diversity, and no evidences of population subdivision or a past bottleneck. Colonization mostly takes place on hosts at the edges of the fragments. Over the last 27 years, the vegetation cover has being lost at a 0.028 years(-1) rate, but fragment perimeter has increased 0.076 years(-1). The increases in fragment perimeter and vegetation openness, likely caused by climate change and logging, appear to increase the habitat of Catopsis, enhance gene flow, and maintain a growing and highly genetically diverse population, in spite of harvesting. Our study evidences conflicting requirements between the epiphytes and their hosts and antagonistic effects of climate change and fragmentation with harvesting on a species that can exploit open spaces in the forest. A full understanding of the consequences of potential threatening factors on species persistence or extinction requires the inspection of the interactions of these factors among each other and their effects on both the focus species and the species on which this species depends.

NGC 1980 Is Not a Foreground Population of Orion: Spectroscopic Survey of Young Stars with Low Extinction in Orion A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Min; Kim, Jinyoung Serena; Apai, Dániel

We perform a spectroscopic survey of the foreground population in Orion A with MMT/Hectospec. We use these data, along with archival spectroscopic data and photometric data, to derive spectral types, extinction values, and masses for 691 stars. Using the Spitzer Space Telescope data, we characterize the disk properties of these sources. We identify 37 new transition disk (TD) objects, 1 globally depleted disk candidate, and 7 probable young debris disks. We discover an object with a mass of less than 0.018–0.030 M {sub ⊙}, which harbors a flaring disk. Using the H α emission line, we characterize the accretion activity of themore » sources with disks, and confirm that the fraction of accreting TDs is lower than that of optically thick disks (46% ± 7% versus 73% ± 9%, respectively). Using kinematic data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and APOGEE INfrared Spectroscopy of the Young Nebulous Clusters program (IN-SYNC), we confirm that the foreground population shows similar kinematics to their local molecular clouds and other young stars in the same regions. Using the isochronal ages, we find that the foreground population has a median age of around 1–2 Myr, which is similar to that of other young stars in Orion A. Therefore, our results argue against the presence of a large and old foreground cluster in front of Orion A.« less

Spectral theory of extreme statistics in birth-death systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meerson, Baruch

2008-03-01

Statistics of rare events, or large deviations, in chemical reactions and systems of birth-death type have attracted a great deal of interest in many areas of science including cell biochemistry, astrochemistry, epidemiology, population biology, etc. Large deviations become of vital importance when discrete (non-continuum) nature of a population of ``particles'' (molecules, bacteria, cells, animals or even humans) and stochastic character of interactions can drive the population to extinction. I will briefly review the novel spectral method [1-3] for calculating the extreme statistics of a broad class of birth-death processes and reactions involving a single species. The spectral method combines the probability generating function formalism with the Sturm-Liouville theory of linear differential operators. It involves a controlled perturbative treatment based on a natural large parameter of the problem: the average number of particles/individuals in a stationary or metastable state. For extinction (the first passage) problems the method yields accurate results for the extinction statistics and for the quasi-stationary probability distribution, including the tails, of metastable states. I will demonstrate the power of the method on the example of a branching and annihilation reaction, A ->-2.8mm2mm2A,,A ->-2.8mm2mm , representative of a rather general class of processes. *M. Assaf and B. Meerson, Phys. Rev. Lett. 97, 200602 (2006). *M. Assaf and B. Meerson, Phys. Rev. E 74, 041115 (2006). *M. Assaf and B. Meerson, Phys. Rev. E 75, 031122 (2007).

Rapid recovery of genetic diversity of dogwhelk (Nucella lapillus L.) populations after local extinction and recolonization contradicts predictions from life-history characteristics.

PubMed

Colson, I; Hughes, R N

2004-08-01

The dogwhelk Nucella lapillus is a predatory marine gastropod populating North Atlantic rocky shores. As with many other gastropod species, N. lapillus was affected by tributyltin (TBT) pollution during the 1970s and 1980s, when local populations became extinct. After a partial ban on TBT in the United Kingdom in 1987, vacant sites have been recolonized. N. lapillus lacks a planktonic larval stage and is therefore expected to have limited dispersal ability. Relatively fast recolonization of some sites, however, contradicts this assumption. We compared levels of genetic diversity and genetic structuring between recolonized sites and sites that showed continuous population at three localities across the British Isles. No significant genetic effects of extinction/recolonization events were observed in SW Scotland and NE England. In SW England we observed a decrease in genetic diversity and an increase in genetic structure in recolonized populations. This last result could be an artefact, however, due to the superposition of other local factors influencing the genetic structuring of dogwhelk populations. We conclude that recolonization of vacant sites was accomplished by a relatively high number of individuals originating from several source populations (the 'migrant-pool' model of recolonization), implying that movements are more widespread than expected on the basis of development mode alone. Comparison with published data on genetic structure of marine organisms with contrasted larval dispersal supports this hypothesis. Our results also stress the importance of local factors (geographical or ecological) in determining genetic structure of dogwhelk populations. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

2017-08-01

The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

Promotion of cooperation by selective group extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böttcher, Marvin A.; Nagler, Jan

2016-06-01

Multilevel selection is an important organizing principle that crucially underlies evolutionary processes from the emergence of cells to eusociality and the economics of nations. Previous studies on multilevel selection assumed that the effective higher-level selection emerges from lower-level reproduction. This leads to selection among groups, although only individuals reproduce. We introduce selective group extinction, where groups die with a probability inversely proportional to their group fitness. When accounting for this the critical benefit-to-cost ratio is substantially lowered. Because in game theory and evolutionary dynamics the degree of cooperation crucially depends on this ratio above which cooperation emerges, previous studies may have substantially underestimated the establishment and maintenance of cooperation.

Paleoecological implications of Alaskan terrestrial vertebrate fauna in latest Cretaceous time at high paleolatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemens, William A.; Gayle Nelms, L.

1993-06-01

The latest Cretaceous cool temperate environment of the Alaskan North Slope included dinosaurs (some species represented by both juveniles and adults) and mammals, all probably endothermic, and freshwater fish among its terrestrial vertebrate fauna. No traces have been found of amphibians or nondinosaurian reptiles, ectothermic vertebrates that are abundantly represented in approximately contemporaneous faunas of North American middle paleolatitudes. A geologically brief period of intense cold and darkness has been hypothesized as the primary cause of terminal Cretaceous extinctions. However, the extinction of the lineages of Alaskan dinosaurs and mammals, in contrast to the survival of most lineages of amphibians and nondinosaurian reptiles into the Tertiary, contradicts this hypothesis.

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Ryan, Mark R.; Runge, Michael C.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts

2011-01-01

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species' survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species' annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population's capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population's response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.

Invasion resistance arises in strongly interacting species-rich model competition communities.

PubMed Central

Case, T J

1990-01-01

I assemble stable multispecies Lotka-Volterra competition communities that differ in resident species number and average strength (and variance) of species interactions. These are then invaded with randomly constructed invaders drawn from the same distribution as the residents. The invasion success rate and the fate of the residents are determined as a function of community-and species-level properties. I show that the probability of colonization success for an invader decreases with community size and the average strength of competition (alpha). Communities composed of many strongly interacting species limit the invasion possibilities of most similar species. These communities, even for a superior invading competitor, set up a sort of "activation barrier" that repels invaders when they invade at low numbers. This "priority effect" for residents is not assumed a priori in my description for the individual population dynamics of these species; rather it emerges because species-rich and strongly interacting species sets have alternative stable states that tend to disfavor species at low densities. These models point to community-level rather than invader-level properties as the strongest determinant of differences in invasion success. The probability of extinction for a resident species increases with community size, and the probability of successful colonization by the invader decreases. Thus an equilibrium community size results wherein the probability of a resident species' extinction just balances the probability of an invader's addition. Given the distribution of alpha it is now possible to predict the equilibrium species number. The results provide a logical framework for an island-biogeographic theory in which species turnover is low even in the face of persistent invasions and for the protection of fragile native species from invading exotics. PMID:11607132

Prefrontal single-unit firing associated with deficient extinction in mice

PubMed Central

Fitzgerald, Paul J; Whittle, Nigel; Flynn, Shaun M; Graybeal, Carolyn; Pinard, Courtney; Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Kravitz, Alexxai; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

2014-01-01

The neural circuitry mediating fear extinction has been increasingly well studied and delineated. The rodent infralimbic subregion (IL) of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been found to promote extinction, whereas the prelimbic cortex (PL) demonstrates an opposing, pro-fear, function. Studies employing in vivo electrophysiological recordings have observed that while increased IL single-unit firing and bursting predicts robust extinction retrieval, increased PL firing can correlate with sustained fear and poor extinction. These relationships between single-unit firing and extinction do not hold under all experimental conditions, however. In the current study, we further investigated the relationship between vmPFC and PL single-unit firing and extinction using inbred mouse models of intact (C57BL/6J, B6) and deficient (129S1/SvImJ, S1) extinction strains. Simultaneous single-unit recordings were made in the PL and vmPFC (encompassing IL) as B6 and S1 mice performed extinction training and retrieval. Impaired extinction retrieval in S1 mice was associated with elevated PL single-unit firing, as compared to firing in extinguishing B6 mice, consistent with the hypothesized pro-fear contribution of PL. Analysis of local field potentials also revealed significantly higher gamma power in the PL of Sthan B6 mice during extinction training and retrieval. In the vmPFC, impaired extinction in S1 mice was also associated with exaggerated single-unit firing, relative to B6 mice. This is in apparent contradiction to evidence that IL activity promotes extinction, but could reflect a (failed) compensatory effort by the vmPFC to mitigate fear-promoting activity in other regions, such as the PL or amygdala. In support of this hypothesis, augmenting IL activity via direct infusion of the GABAA receptor antagonist picrotoxin rescued impaired extinction retrieval in S1 mice. Chronic fluoxetine treatment produced modest reductions in fear during extinction retrieval and increased the number of Zif268-labeled cells in layer II of IL, but failed to increase vmPFC single-unit firing. Collectively, these findings further support the important contribution these cortical regions play in determining the balance between robust extinction on the one hand, and sustained fear on the other. Elucidating the precise nature of these roles could help inform understanding of the pathophysiology of fear-related anxiety disorders. PMID:24231425

Effects of harvesting flowers from shrubs on the persistence and abundance of wild shrub populations at multiple spatial extents.

PubMed

Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Bond, William J; Midgley, Guy F; Rebelo, Anthony G; Thuiller, Wilfried; Schurr, Frank M

2011-02-01

Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

My Pencils Have Names

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Block, Phillip

2011-01-01

As personal computers have evolved steadily into handhelds and teachers continue the march toward lining the walls of the classroom with flat screen work stations, many assume that the old-timey "number 2" lead yellow pencil is probably on the high road to extinction. Yet most classrooms still flow with them like miniature telephone poles fresh…

Simulation modeling of population viability for the leopard darter (Percidae: Percina pantherina)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, L.R.; Echelle, A.A.; Toepfer, C.S.; Williams, M.G.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

We used the computer program RAMAS to perform a population viability analysis for the leopard darter, Percina pantherina. This percid fish is a threatened species confined to five isolated rivers in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A base model created from life history data indicated a 6% probability that the leopard darter would go extinct in 50 years. We performed sensitivity analyses to determine the effects of initial population size, variation in age structure, variation in severity and probability of catastrophe, and migration rate. Catastrophe (modeled as the probability and severity of drought) and migration had the greatest effects on persistence. Results of these simulations have implications for management of this species.

A general stochastic model for sporophytic self-incompatibility.

PubMed

Billiard, Sylvain; Tran, Viet Chi

2012-01-01

Disentangling the processes leading populations to extinction is a major topic in ecology and conservation biology. The difficulty to find a mate in many species is one of these processes. Here, we investigate the impact of self-incompatibility in flowering plants, where several inter-compatible classes of individuals exist but individuals of the same class cannot mate. We model pollen limitation through different relationships between mate availability and fertilization success. After deriving a general stochastic model, we focus on the simple case of distylous plant species where only two classes of individuals exist. We first study the dynamics of such a species in a large population limit and then, we look for an approximation of the extinction probability in small populations. This leads us to consider inhomogeneous random walks on the positive quadrant. We compare the dynamics of distylous species to self-fertile species with and without inbreeding depression, to obtain the conditions under which self-incompatible species can be less sensitive to extinction while they can suffer more pollen limitation. © Springer-Verlag 2011

Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

PubMed

Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

2014-09-01

In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

2014-09-01

In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

DASCH ON KU Cyg: A {approx} 5 YEAR DUST ACCRETION EVENT IN {approx} 1900

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang Sumin; Grindlay, Jonathan; Los, Edward

2011-09-01

KU Cyg is an eclipsing binary consisting of an F-type star accreting through a large accretion disk from a K5III red giant. Here we present the discovery of a 5 year dip around 1900 found from its 100 year DASCH light curve. It showed a {approx}0.5 mag slow fading from 1899 to 1903 and brightened back around 1904 on a relatively shorter timescale. The light curve shape of the 1899-1904 fading-brightening event differs from the dust production and dispersion process observed in R Coronae Borealis stars, which usually has a faster fading and slower recovery, and for KU Cyg ismore » probably related to the accretion disk surrounding the F star. The slow fading in KU Cyg is probably caused by increases in dust extinction in the disk, and the subsequent quick brightening may be due to the evaporation of dust transported inward through the disk. The extinction excess which caused the fading may arise from increased mass transfer rate in the system or from dust clump ejections from the K giant.« less

Press/Pulse: Explaining selective terrestrial extinctions at the Cretaceous/Palaeogene boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arens, Nan Crystal

2010-05-01

Single-cause mass extinction scenarios require extreme conditions to generate sufficiently strong kill mechanisms. Such dire effects are commonly at odds with the taxonomic selectivity that characterizes most extinction events. In response, some researchers have proposed that the interaction of a variety of factors typify episodes of elevated extinction. Previous work (Arens & West 2008 Paleobiology 34:456-471) has shown that a combination of press and pulse disturbances increases the probability of elevated extinction. The press/pulse contrast is borrowed from community ecology, where researchers have long recognized that the ecological response to long-term stress differs from that of an instantaneous catastrophe. Scaled to the macroevolutionary level, press disturbances alter community composition by placing multigenerational stress on populations. Press disturbances do not necessarily cause mortality, but reduce population size by a variety of mechanisms such as curtailed reproduction. Pulse disturbances are sudden catastrophic events that cause extensive mortality. Either press or pulse disturbances of sufficient magnitude can cause extinction, however elevated extinction occurs more commonly during the coincidence of lower-magnitude press and pulse events. The Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K/P) extinction is one of the best examples of a press/pulse extinction. Deccan Trap volcanism, which straddled the K/P boundary, altered atmospheric composition and climate. This episodic volcanism likely contributed to the climate instability observed in terrestrial ecosystems and exerted press stress. Pulse disturbance was produced by bolide impact, which punctuated the end of the Cretaceous. The press/pulse mechanism also more effectively explains selectivity in terrestrial vertebrate and plant extinctions at the K/P boundary than do single-mechanisms scenarios. For example, why do environmentally sensitive vertebrates such as amphibians experience no extinction? And why do mire plants preferentially survive? Deccan Trap volcanism generated climatic warming and instability during the last 500 Ka of the Cretaceous. This resulted in extensive rearrangement of terrestrial floras. Dramatic cooling in the millennia immediately preceding the K/P boundary caused regional diversity loss and an apparent increase in vegetation heterogeneity. These changes, coupled with the spread of wetland ecosystems across the western interior of North America in the latest Cretaceous, exerted stress—press disturbance—on some elements of the biota, while favoring others. This press stress may have rendered lineages requiring well-drained or large homogeneous habitats endangered and vulnerable to extinction in the face of the terminal-Cretaceous bolide impact(s)—pulse disturbance. And, in fact, the impact's survivors were primarily wetland plants and animals.

Dynamic expression of FKBP5 in the medial prefrontal cortex regulates resiliency to conditioned fear

PubMed Central

Criado-Marrero, Marangelie; Morales Silva, Roberto J.; Velazquez, Bethzaly; Hernández, Anixa; Colon, María; Cruz, Emmanuel; Soler-Cedeño, Omar; Porter, James T.

2017-01-01

The factors influencing resiliency to the development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) remain to be elucidated. Clinical studies associate PTSD with polymorphisms of the FK506 binding protein 5 (FKBP5). However, it is unclear whether changes in FKBP5 expression alone could produce resiliency or susceptibility to PTSD-like symptoms. In this study, we used rats as an animal model to examine whether FKBP5 in the infralimbic (IL) or prelimbic (PL) medial prefrontal cortex regulates fear conditioning or extinction. First, we examined FKBP5 expression in IL and PL during fear conditioning or extinction. In contrast to the stable expression of FKBP5 seen in PL, FKBP5 expression in IL increased after fear conditioning and remained elevated even after extinction suggesting that IL FKBP5 levels may modulate fear conditioning or extinction. Consistent with this possibility, reducing basal FKBP5 expression via local infusion of FKBP5–shRNA into IL reduced fear conditioning. Furthermore, reducing IL FKBP5, after consolidation of the fear memory, enhanced extinction memory indicating that IL FKBP5 opposed formation of the extinction memory. Our findings demonstrate that lowering FKBP5 expression in IL is sufficient to both reduce fear acquisition and enhance extinction, and suggest that lower expression of FKBP5 in the ventral medial prefrontal cortex could contribute to resiliency to PTSD. PMID:28298552

Dietary controls on extinction versus survival among avian megafauna in the late Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox-Dobbs, Kena; Stidham, Thomas A.; Bowen, Gabriel J.; Emslie, Steven D.; Koch, Paul L.

2006-08-01

The late Pleistocene extinction decimated terrestrial megafaunal communities in North America, but did not affect marine mammal populations. In coastal regions, marine megafauna may have provided a buffer that allowed some large predators or scavengers, such as California condors (Gymnogyps californianus), to survive into the Holocene. To track the influence of marine resources on avifaunas we analyzed the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen isotope composition of collagen from late Pleistocene vultures and raptors, including species that survived the extinction (condor, bald eagle, golden eagle) and extinct species (teratorn, black vulture). At the Rancho La Brea and McKittrick tar pits of southern California, isotope values for extinct teratorns (Teratornis merriami, n = 10) and black vultures (Coragyps occidentalis, n = 8) show that they fed entirely in a terrestrial C3 ecosystem. In contrast, La Brea condors cluster into two groups, one with a terrestrial diet (n = 4), and the other with a strong marine influence (n = 5). At localities in the American southwest, Texas, and Florida, where condors became extinct, they have isotope values indicating entirely terrestrial diets (n = 10). Our results suggest that dependence upon terrestrial megafaunal carrion as a food source led to the extinction of inland California condor populations and coastal populations of teratorns and black vultures at the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary, whereas use of marine foods allowed coastal condor populations to survive.

Rarity and extinction risk in coral reef angelfishes on isolated islands: interrelationships among abundance, geographic range size and specialisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Jones, G. P.; Munday, P. L.

2010-03-01

Determining the species most vulnerable to increasing degradation of coral reef habitats requires identification of the ecological traits that increase extinction risk. In the terrestrial environment, endemic species often face a high risk of extinction because of an association among three traits that threaten species persistence: small geographic range size, low abundance and ecological specialisation. To test whether these traits are associated in coral reef fishes, this study compared abundance and specialisation in endemic and widespread angelfishes at the remote Christmas and Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean. The interrelationships among traits conferring high extinction risk in terrestrial communities did not apply to these fishes. Endemic angelfishes were 50-80 times more abundant than widespread species at these islands. Furthermore, there was no relationship between abundance and ecological specialisation. Endemic species were not more specialised than widespread congeners and endemics used similar resources to many widespread species. Three widespread species exhibited low abundance and some degree of specialisation, which may expose them to a greater risk of local extinction. For endemic species, high abundance and lack of specialisation on susceptible habitats may compensate for the global extinction risk posed by having extremely small geographic ranges. However, recent extinctions of small range reef fishes confirm that endemics are not immune to the increasing severity of large-scale disturbances that can affect species throughout their geographic range.

Lean Limit Phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Law, C. K.

1983-01-01

The influence of stretch and preferential diffusion on premixed flame extinction and stability was investigated via two model flame configurations, namely the stagnation flame and the bunsen flame. Using a counterflow burner and a stagnation flow burner with a water-cooled wall, the effect of downstream heat loss on the extinction of a stretched premixed flame investigated for lean and rich propane/air and methane/air mixtures. It was demonstrated that extinction by stretch alone is possible only when the deficient reactant is the less mobile one. When it is the more mobile one, downstream heat loss or incomplete reaction is also needed to achieve extinction. The local extinction of bunsen flame tips and edges of hydrocarbon/air premixtures was investigated using a variety of burners. Results show that, while for both rich propane/air and butane/air mixtures tip opening occurs at a constant fuel equivalence ratio of 1.44 and is therefore independent of the intensity, uniformity, and configuration of the approach flow, for rich methane/air flames burning is intensified at the tip and therefore opening is not possible.

Theoretical Study of near Neutrality. II. Effect of Subdivided Population Structure with Local Extinction and Recolonization

PubMed Central

Ohta, T.

1992-01-01

There are several unsolved problems concerning the model of nearly neutral mutations. One is the interaction of subdivided population structure and weak selection that spatially fluctuates. The model of nearly neutral mutations whose selection coefficient spatially fluctuates has been studied by adopting the island model with periodic extinction-recolonization. Both the number of colonies and the migration rate play significant roles in determining mutants' behavior, and selection is ineffective when the extinction-recolonization is frequent with low migration rate. In summary, the number of mutant substitutions decreases and the polymorphism increases by increasing the total population size, and/or decreasing the extinction-recolonization rate. However, by increasing the total size of the population, the mutant substitution rate does not become as low when compared with that in panmictic populations, because of the extinction-recolonization, especially when the migration rate is limited. It is also found that the model satisfactorily explains the contrasting patterns of molecular polymorphisms observed in sibling species of Drosophila, including heterozygosity, proportion of polymorphism and fixation index. PMID:1582566

Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly.

PubMed

Hanski, Ilkka A

2011-08-30

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time.

Enhancement of Extinction Learning Attenuates Ethanol-Seeking Behavior and Alters Plasticity in the Prefrontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Trantham-Davidson, Heather; Kassab, Amanda S.; Glen, William B.; Olive, M. Foster; Chandler, L. Judson

2014-01-01

Addiction is a chronic relapsing disorder in which relapse is often initiated by exposure to drug-related cues. The present study examined the effects of mGluR5 activation on extinction of ethanol-cue-maintained responding, relapse-like behavior, and neuronal plasticity. Rats were trained to self-administer ethanol and then exposed to extinction training during which they were administered either vehicle or the mGluR5 positive allosteric modulator 3-cyano-N-(1,3-diphenyl-1H-pyrazol-5-yl) or CDPPB. CDPPB treatment reduced active lever responding during extinction, decreased the total number of extinction sessions required to meet criteria, and attenuated cue-induced reinstatement of ethanol seeking. CDPPB facilitation of extinction was blocked by the local infusion of the mGluR5 antagonist 3-((2-methyl-4-thiazolyl)ethynyl) pyridine into the infralimbic (IfL) cortex, but had no effect when infused into the prelimbic (PrL) cortex. Analysis of dendritic spines revealed alterations in structural plasticity, whereas electrophysiological recordings demonstrated differential alterations in glutamatergic neurotransmission in the PrL and IfL cortex. Extinction was associated with increased amplitude of evoked synaptic PrL and IfL NMDA currents but reduced amplitude of PrL AMPA currents. Treatment with CDPPB prevented the extinction-induced enhancement of NMDA currents in PrL without affecting NMDA currents in the IfL. Whereas CDPPB treatment did not alter the amplitude of PrL or IfL AMPA currents, it did promote the expression of IfL calcium-permeable GluR2-lacking receptors in both abstinence- and extinction-trained rats, but had no effect in ethanol-naive rats. These results confirm changes in the PrL and IfL cortex in glutamatergic neurotransmission during extinction learning and demonstrate that manipulation of mGluR5 facilitates extinction of ethanol cues in association with neuronal plasticity. PMID:24872560

A sphingolipid mechanism for behavioral extinction.

PubMed

Huston, Joseph P; Kornhuber, Johannes; Mühle, Christiane; Japtok, Lukasz; Komorowski, Mara; Mattern, Claudia; Reichel, Martin; Gulbins, Erich; Kleuser, Burkhard; Topic, Bianca; De Souza Silva, Maria A; Müller, Christian P

2016-05-01

Reward-dependent instrumental behavior must continuously be re-adjusted according to environmental conditions. Failure to adapt to changes in reward contingencies may incur psychiatric disorders like anxiety and depression. When an expected reward is omitted, behavior undergoes extinction. While extinction involves active re-learning, it is also accompanied by emotional behaviors indicative of frustration, anxiety, and despair (extinction-induced depression). Here, we report evidence for a sphingolipid mechanism in the extinction of behavior. Rapid extinction, indicating efficient re-learning, coincided with a decrease in the activity of the enzyme acid sphingomyelinase (ASM), which catalyzes turnover of sphingomyelin to ceramide, in the dorsal hippocampus of rats. The stronger the decline in ASM activity, the more rapid was the extinction. Sphingolipid-focused lipidomic analysis showed that this results in a decline of local ceramide species in the dorsal hippocampus. Ceramides shape the fluidity of lipid rafts in synaptic membranes and by that way can control neural plasticity. We also found that aging modifies activity of enzymes and ceramide levels in selective brain regions. Aging also changed how the chronic treatment with corticosterone (stress) or intranasal dopamine modified regional enzyme activity and ceramide levels, coinciding with rate of extinction. These data provide first evidence for a functional ASM-ceramide pathway in the brain involved in the extinction of learned behavior. This finding extends the known cellular mechanisms underlying behavioral plasticity to a new class of membrane-located molecules, the sphingolipids, and their regulatory enzymes, and may offer new treatment targets for extinction- and learning-related psychopathological conditions. Sphingolipids are common lipids in the brain which form lipid domains at pre- and postsynaptic membrane compartments. Here we show a decline in dorsal hippocampus ceramide species together with a reduction of acid sphingomyelinase activity during extinction of conditioned behavior in rats. This reduction was associated with expression of re-learning-related behavior, but not with emotional behaviors. Read the Editorial Highlight for this article on page 485. © 2016 International Society for Neurochemistry.

Enhancement of extinction learning attenuates ethanol-seeking behavior and alters plasticity in the prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Gass, Justin T; Trantham-Davidson, Heather; Kassab, Amanda S; Glen, William B; Olive, M Foster; Chandler, L Judson

2014-05-28

Addiction is a chronic relapsing disorder in which relapse is often initiated by exposure to drug-related cues. The present study examined the effects of mGluR5 activation on extinction of ethanol-cue-maintained responding, relapse-like behavior, and neuronal plasticity. Rats were trained to self-administer ethanol and then exposed to extinction training during which they were administered either vehicle or the mGluR5 positive allosteric modulator 3-cyano-N-(1,3-diphenyl-1H-pyrazol-5-yl) or CDPPB. CDPPB treatment reduced active lever responding during extinction, decreased the total number of extinction sessions required to meet criteria, and attenuated cue-induced reinstatement of ethanol seeking. CDPPB facilitation of extinction was blocked by the local infusion of the mGluR5 antagonist 3-((2-methyl-4-thiazolyl)ethynyl) pyridine into the infralimbic (IfL) cortex, but had no effect when infused into the prelimbic (PrL) cortex. Analysis of dendritic spines revealed alterations in structural plasticity, whereas electrophysiological recordings demonstrated differential alterations in glutamatergic neurotransmission in the PrL and IfL cortex. Extinction was associated with increased amplitude of evoked synaptic PrL and IfL NMDA currents but reduced amplitude of PrL AMPA currents. Treatment with CDPPB prevented the extinction-induced enhancement of NMDA currents in PrL without affecting NMDA currents in the IfL. Whereas CDPPB treatment did not alter the amplitude of PrL or IfL AMPA currents, it did promote the expression of IfL calcium-permeable GluR2-lacking receptors in both abstinence- and extinction-trained rats, but had no effect in ethanol-naive rats. These results confirm changes in the PrL and IfL cortex in glutamatergic neurotransmission during extinction learning and demonstrate that manipulation of mGluR5 facilitates extinction of ethanol cues in association with neuronal plasticity. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/347562-13$15.00/0.

Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias

2010-01-01

A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

The FMOS-COSMOS survey of star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 1.6. II. The mass-metallicity relation and the dependence on star formation rate and dust extinction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zahid, H. J.; Sanders, D. B.; Chu, J.

We investigate the relationships between stellar mass, gas-phase oxygen abundance (metallicity), star formation rate (SFR), and dust content of star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 1.6 using Subaru/FMOS spectroscopy in the COSMOS field. The mass-metallicity (MZ) relation at z ∼ 1.6 is steeper than the relation observed in the local universe. The steeper MZ relation at z ∼ 1.6 is mainly due to evolution in the stellar mass where the MZ relation begins to turnover and flatten. This turnover mass is 1.2 dex larger at z ∼ 1.6. The most massive galaxies at z ∼ 1.6 (∼10{sup 11} M {sub ☉})more » are enriched to the level observed in massive galaxies in the local universe. The MZ relation we measure at z ∼ 1.6 supports the suggestion of an empirical upper metallicity limit that does not significantly evolve with redshift. We find an anti-correlation between metallicity and SFR for galaxies at a fixed stellar mass at z ∼ 1.6, which is similar to trends observed in the local universe. We do not find a relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR that is independent of redshift; rather, our data suggest that there is redshift evolution in this relation. We examine the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and dust extinction, and find that at a fixed stellar mass, dustier galaxies tend to be more metal rich. From examination of the stellar masses, metallicities, SFRs, and dust extinctions, we conclude that stellar mass is most closely related to dust extinction.« less

Population dynamics of the endangered Cape Sable seaside-sparrow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curnutt, J.L.; Mayer, A.L.; Brooks, T.M.; Manne, L.; Bass, O.L.; Fleming, D.M.; Philip, Nott M.; Pimm, S.L.

1998-01-01

The Cape Sable seaside-sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis) has disappeared from its only known breeding areas episodically since its discovery early this century. Systematic surveys across its range in the southern Everglades find the sparrow's range to be fragmented into six subpopulations. The sparrow population decreased by 58% between 1992 and 1995, with the near extinction of the western half of the population and the temporary local extinction of some eastern populations. Other similar grassland sparrows have populations that vary considerably from year to year. Yet the decline in the western subpopulation and the local extinction of some of the peripheral populations cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Hurricane Andrew passed over several subpopulations prior to the particularly poor year of 1993. However, the geographical and temporal patterns of subpopulation decline are not consistent with what would be expected following a hurricane. Frequent fires prevent successful breeding as does flooding during the breeding season. Better management can prevent frequent fires and episodic flooding. However, the long-term survival of the sparrow depends on managing the unanticipated risks that attend its small, fragmented population.

Collapse of an ecological network in Ancient Egypt

PubMed Central

Yeakel, Justin D.; Pires, Mathias M.; Rudolf, Lars; Koch, Paul L.; Guimarães, Paulo R.; Gross, Thilo

2014-01-01

The dynamics of ecosystem collapse are fundamental to determining how and why biological communities change through time, as well as the potential effects of extinctions on ecosystems. Here, we integrate depictions of mammals from Egyptian antiquity with direct lines of paleontological and archeological evidence to infer local extinctions and community dynamics over a 6,000-y span. The unprecedented temporal resolution of this dataset enables examination of how the tandem effects of human population growth and climate change can disrupt mammalian communities. We show that the extinctions of mammals in Egypt were nonrandom and that destabilizing changes in community composition coincided with abrupt aridification events and the attendant collapses of some complex societies. We also show that the roles of species in a community can change over time and that persistence is predicted by measures of species sensitivity, a function of local dynamic stability. To our knowledge, our study is the first high-resolution analysis of the ecological impacts of environmental change on predator–prey networks over millennial timescales and sheds light on the historical events that have shaped modern animal communities. PMID:25201967

Mapping the Extinction Curve in 3D: Structure on Kiloparsec Scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlafly, E. F.; Peek, J. E. G.; Finkbeiner, D. P.

Near-infrared spectroscopy from APOGEE and wide-field optical photometry from Pan-STARRS1 have recently made precise measurements of the shape of the extinction curve possible for tens of thousands of stars, parameterized by R ( V ). These measurements revealed structures in R ( V ) with large angular scales, which are challenging to explain in existing dust paradigms. In this work, we combine three-dimensional maps of dust column density with R ( V ) measurements to constrain the three-dimensional distribution of R ( V ) in the Milky Way. We find that the variations in R ( V ) are correlatedmore » on kiloparsec scales. In particular, most of the dust within one kiloparsec in the outer Galaxy, including many local molecular clouds (Orion, Taurus, Perseus, California, and Cepheus), has a significantly lower R ( V ) than more distant dust in the Milky Way. These results provide new input to models of dust evolution and processing, and complicate the application of locally derived extinction curves to more distant regions of the Milky Way and to other galaxies.« less

Infralimbic Neurotrophin-3 Infusion Rescues Fear Extinction Impairment in a Mouse Model of Pathological Fear

PubMed Central

D'Amico, Davide; Gener, Thomas; de Lagrán, Maria Martínez; Sanchez-Vives, Maria V; Santos, Mónica; Dierssen, Mara

2017-01-01

The inability to properly extinguish fear memories constitutes the foundation of several anxiety disorders, including panic disorder. Recent findings show that boosting prefrontal cortex synaptic plasticity potentiates fear extinction, suggesting that therapies that augment synaptic plasticity could prove useful in rescue of fear extinction impairments in this group of disorders. Previously, we reported that mice with selective deregulation of neurotrophic tyrosine kinase receptor, type 3 expression (TgNTRK3) exhibit increased fear memories accompanied by impaired extinction, congruent with an altered activation pattern of the amygdala—hippocampus—medial prefrontal cortex fear circuit. Here we explore the specific role of neurotrophin 3 and its cognate receptor in the medial prefrontal cortex, and its involvement in fear extinction in a pathological context. In this study we combined molecular, behavioral, in vivo pharmacology and ex vivo electrophysiological recordings in TgNTRK3 animals during contextual fear extinction processes. We show that neurotrophin 3 protein levels are increased upon contextual fear extinction in wild-type animals but not in TgNTRK3 mice, which present deficits in infralimbic long-term potentiation. Importantly, infusion of neurotrophin 3 to the medial prefrontal cortex of TgNTRK3 mice rescues contextual fear extinction and ex vivo local application improves medial prefrontal cortex synaptic plasticity. This effect is blocked by inhibition of extracellular signal-regulated kinase phosphorylation through peripheral administration of SL327, suggesting that rescue occurs via this pathway. Our results suggest that stimulating neurotrophin 3-dependent medial prefrontal cortex plasticity could restore contextual fear extinction deficit in pathological fear and could constitute an effective treatment for fear-related disorders. PMID:27534266

A 3-D mid-infrared view of the central parsec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moultaka, J.; Eckart, A.; Mužić, K.; Sabha, N.

2014-05-01

We present a mid-infrared 3D view of the central parsec using ISAAC spectrograph (ESO/VLT) with its spectroscopic mode. We mapped the central parsec in L- and M-bands by using 27 and 21 slit positions, respectively, that allowed us to build two data cubes of the region in these spectral domains. We also use an original method to distinguish the contribution of the foreground extinction to the absorbed spectra from that of the local extinction in both wavelength ranges. We find that there are residual water and CO ices in the central parsec as well as hydrocarbons and gaseous CO implying very low temperatures of the order of tens of Kelvin in the local environment of Sgr A*.

Oak forest exploitation and black-locust invasion caused severe shifts in epiphytic lichen communities in Northern Italy.

PubMed

Nascimbene, Juri; Marini, Lorenzo

2010-10-15

In the last two centuries, native European oak forests have undergone a dramatic decline related to increasing human pressure for agriculture and urbanization. Oak forests were either completely eradicated and transformed into agricultural landscapes or replaced by second-growth formations. Intensive forest management and the replacement of native forests with production forests or arable lands are recognized amongst the main threats to many lichens in Europe. In this study, we used historical information on the epiphytic lichen biota which was hosted in a native oak-dominated forest of Northern Italy to identify shifts of lichen communities due to the changes in land use which occurred during the last two centuries. We also compared the epiphytic lichen communities inhabiting remnant oak forests with those found in the habitats that have replaced native forests: black-locust forests and agrarian landscapes. Almost all the species sampled during the 19th century are now extinct. The loss of native habitat and the subsequent invasion by black locust were probably the most influential factors which affected the composition of lichen communities, causing the local extinction of most of the species historically recorded. Despite the fact that oak remnants host only a few species which were historically recorded, and that they currently are the lichen poorest habitat in the study region, they host lichen assemblages differing from those of black-locust forests and agrarian stands. In these habitats lichen assemblages are mainly composed of species adapted to well-lit, dry conditions and tolerating air pollution and eutrophication. This pattern is likely to be common also in other lowland and hilly regions throughout Northern Italy where oak forests are targeted among the habitats of conservation concern at the European level. For this reason, a national strategy for biodiversity conservation and monitoring of lowlands forests should provide the framework for local restoration projects. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unique Locality of Wooly Rhinoceros in Arctic Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davydov, S.; Sher, A.; Boeskorov, G.; Lazarev, P.; Binladen, J.; Willerslev, E.; Tikhonov, A.

2009-12-01

A permafrost goldfield area in northeastern Yakutia, Russia turns out to be the richest locality of extinct woolly rhinoceros in the world. It has yielded fossil horns of about 50 rhino individuals, and recently the most complete mummified body of this extinct giant. The age of fossils is about 40-50 thousand years before present, but permafrost helped to preserve them in perfect condition. The fossils, and especially mummies, present a perfect material for genetic studies. Woolly rhinoceros, Coelodonta antiquitatis (Blum.), is one of the symbols of the Ice Age and one of few large mammal species that disappeared from Eurasia about 14 000 years ago. Recently, a substantially complete mummy of woolly rhinoceros was found in permafrost at the Rodinka site near Cherskiy, northeastern Yakutia, Russia (68.76°N, 161.63°E). It is the body of an adult female, weighing almost 900 kg, with the preserved skull, two horns, lower jaw, one ear, and tail. The length of the carcass is about 2 m, the live length of the animal is estimated as more than 3 m. The right legs are partly preserved and the chest and belly cavities are partly empty; almost all hair has been lost. Despite these defects, it is the most complete mummy of woolly rhino ever found in permafrost. A fragment of rib from the body has been AMS dated to 39140±390 BP (OxA-18755). In recent years the Rodinka site has yielded an unprecedented number of woolly rhino fossils and is so far the richest locality for this extinct species. The woolly rhino had a very wide distribution in the Late Pleistocene - from France to the Bering Strait and from China to the high-arctic islands. It was perfectly adapted to the variety of severe periglacial (tundra-steppe) environments. Intriguingly, it was the only large Siberian mammal that never crossed the Bering Land Bridge to Alaska. In the vast lowlands of Arctic Siberia Coelodonta fossils are common, but much less abundant (below 1%) compared to those of other large Ice Age mammals such as mammoth, bison, or horse. The unusual abundance of rhino fossils in the low hills of submontane area confirms an earlier hypothesis that such a terrain was especially attractive for these animals, although they could make long (probably, seasonal) excursions to the North along the plains. The collection of woolly rhino fossils from Cherskiy is now under study by paleontologists and geneticists in Russia, Denmark, and the UK. Research was partly supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (projects 07-05-00313-a and Far East 09-04-98568-r_vostok_a).

Reversing functional extinction of mammals prompts a rethink of paradigms about seed fate in arid Australia

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Functional extinction of once abundant species has frequently preceded understanding of their ecological roles. Consequently, our understanding of ecosystems is prone to shifting baselines because it often relies on observations made on depauperate species assemblages. In Australian deserts, current paradigms are that ants are the dominant granivores, mammals are unimportant seed predators and that myrmecochory in many Australian shrubs is an adaptation to increase dispersal distance and direct seeds to favourable germination sites. Here, we ask whether these paradigms could be artefacts of mammal extinction. We take advantage of a predator-proof reserve within which locally extinct native mammals have been reintroduced to compare seed removal by ants and mammals. Using foraging trays that selectively excluded mammals and ants we show that a reintroduced mammal, the woylie (Bettongia penicillata) was at least as important as ants in the removal of seeds of two shrub species (Dodonaea viscosa and Acacia ligulata). Our results provide evidence that the dominance of ants as granivores and current understanding of the adaptive benefit of myrmecochory in arid Australia may be artefacts of the functional extinction of mammals. Our study shows how reversing functional extinction can provide the opportunity to rethink contemporary understanding of ecological processes. PMID:29410877

Reversing functional extinction of mammals prompts a rethink of paradigms about seed fate in arid Australia.

PubMed

Mills, Charlotte H; Letnic, Mike

2018-01-01

Functional extinction of once abundant species has frequently preceded understanding of their ecological roles. Consequently, our understanding of ecosystems is prone to shifting baselines because it often relies on observations made on depauperate species assemblages. In Australian deserts, current paradigms are that ants are the dominant granivores, mammals are unimportant seed predators and that myrmecochory in many Australian shrubs is an adaptation to increase dispersal distance and direct seeds to favourable germination sites. Here, we ask whether these paradigms could be artefacts of mammal extinction. We take advantage of a predator-proof reserve within which locally extinct native mammals have been reintroduced to compare seed removal by ants and mammals. Using foraging trays that selectively excluded mammals and ants we show that a reintroduced mammal, the woylie ( Bettongia penicillata ) was at least as important as ants in the removal of seeds of two shrub species ( Dodonaea viscosa and Acacia ligulata ). Our results provide evidence that the dominance of ants as granivores and current understanding of the adaptive benefit of myrmecochory in arid Australia may be artefacts of the functional extinction of mammals. Our study shows how reversing functional extinction can provide the opportunity to rethink contemporary understanding of ecological processes.

GABAergic Synapses at the Axon Initial Segment of Basolateral Amygdala Projection Neurons Modulate Fear Extinction.

PubMed

Saha, Rinki; Knapp, Stephanie; Chakraborty, Darpan; Horovitz, Omer; Albrecht, Anne; Kriebel, Martin; Kaphzan, Hanoch; Ehrlich, Ingrid; Volkmer, Hansjürgen; Richter-Levin, Gal

2017-01-01

Inhibitory synaptic transmission in the amygdala has a pivotal role in fear learning and its extinction. However, the local circuits formed by GABAergic inhibitory interneurons within the amygdala and their detailed function in shaping these behaviors are not well understood. Here we used lentiviral-mediated knockdown of the cell adhesion molecule neurofascin in the basolateral amygdala (BLA) to specifically remove inhibitory synapses at the axon initial segment (AIS) of BLA projection neurons. Quantitative analysis of GABAergic synapse markers and measurement of miniature inhibitory postsynaptic currents in BLA projection neurons after neurofascin knockdown ex vivo confirmed the loss of GABAergic input. We then studied the impact of this manipulation on anxiety-like behavior and auditory cued fear conditioning and its extinction as BLA related behavioral paradigms, as well as on long-term potentiation (LTP) in the ventral subiculum-BLA pathway in vivo. BLA knockdown of neurofascin impaired ventral subiculum-BLA-LTP. While this manipulation did not affect anxiety-like behavior and fear memory acquisition and consolidation, it specifically impaired extinction. Our findings indicate that modification of inhibitory synapses at the AIS of BLA projection neurons is sufficient to selectively impair extinction behavior. A better understanding of the role of distinct GABAergic synapses may provide novel and more specific targets for therapeutic interventions in extinction-based therapies.

Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Song, Hwanseok; Schuldt, Jonathon P

2017-09-01

Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species' extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A-E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single-event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

The large terrestrial carnivore guild in Quaternary Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louys, Julien

2014-07-01

Much of Southeast Asia's large terrestrial carnivores appeared, evolved and disappeared from the region for reasons that remain poorly understood. Two of the most significant extinctions are represented by the charismatic Pleistocene megacarnivores Pachycrocuta and Pliocrocuta. Southeast Asia hosts the last populations of these species globally. Their persistence in southern China until the late Pleistocene suggests their extinction was not tied to that of the machairodont cats, which like the rest of the world became extinct sometime in the early Pleistocene in this region. Instead the disappearance of the hyenids is probably related to climate change and deteriorating environmental conditions. There is some evidence that the wolf and domesticated dog first appeared in Southeast Asia, although confirmation of this awaits more detailed fossil records. There does not appear to be a large carnivore guild turnover of the same scale or time as recorded in Europe and Africa, although an extinction event in the late Pleistocene is provisionally recorded. Environmental changes and fluctuating sea levels have had a unique impact on the region's large carnivore guild. Several large carnivores from Java show unique genetic and morphological variations, and this could potentially be related to the connection between Java and the Indochinese mainland sometime during the middle Pleistocene. The effects of islands on the large carnivores are complicated and at times contradictory. Nevertheless, periods of isolation of large carnivores on Java, Sumatra and Borneo from the continent had impacts on both extinctions and speciations, with at least one well documented endemic large carnivore evolving in Sundaland (Sunda clouded leopard). Hunting and deforestation ongoing since the mid- to late Holocene means that many extant members of the large carnivore guild are at high risk of extinction.

Geomicrobiological perspective on the pattern and causes of the 5-million-year Permo/Triassic biotic crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Shucheng; Wang, Yongbiao

2011-03-01

The pattern and causes of Permo/Triassic biotic crisis were mainly documented by faunal and terrestrial plant records. We reviewed herein the geomicrobiological perspective on this issue based on the reported cyanobacterial record. Two episodic cyanobacterial blooms were observed to couple with carbon isotope excursions and faunal mass extinction at Meishan section, suggestive of the presence of at least two episodic biotic crises across the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB). The two episodes of cyanobacterial blooms, carbon isotope excursions and faunal mass extinction were, respectively, identified in several sections of the world, inferring the presence of two global changes across the PTB. Close associations among the three records (cyanobacterial bloom, shift in carbon isotope composition, and faunal extinction) were subsequently observed in three intervals in the Early Triassic, the protracted recovery period as previously thought, inferring the occurrence of more episodes of global changes. Spatiotemporal association of cyanobacterial blooms with volcanic materials in South China, and probably in South-east Asia, infers their causal relationship. Volcanism is believed to trigger the biotic crisis in several ways and to cause the close association among microbial blooms, the carbon isotope excursions and faunal mass extinctions in four intervals from the latest Permian to the Early Triassic. The major episodes of the well-known Siberian flood eruption are proposed to be responsible for the extinctions in the Early Triassic, but their synchronicity with the end-Permian extinction awaits more precise dating data to confirm. Geomicrobial records are thus suggestive of a long-term episodic biotic crisis (at least four episodes) lasting from the latest Permian to the end of the Early Triassic, induced by the global volcanic eruptions and sea level changes during Pangea formation.

Climate change, thermal niches, extinction risk and maternal-effect rescue of Toad-headed lizards, Phrynocephalus, in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Sinervo, Barry; Miles, Donald B; Wu, Yayong; Méndez de la Cruz, Fausto R; Kirchoff, Sebastian; Qi, Yin

2018-02-13

Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for biologists. In this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation. Our method downscales operative environmental temperatures, which restrict hours of activity of lizards, h r , for present-day climate (1975) and future climate scenarios (2070). We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards (or taxa in species complexes) drawn from literature and museum records. Our analysis is phylogenetically informed, because some clades may be more sensitive to rising temperatures. Computed h r limits predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value Distributions. Under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario, we predict extirpation of 64% of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species, and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being exceeded. In tandem with global strategies of lower CO 2 emissions, we propose regional strategies for establishing new National Parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species occurrence. We propose that evolved acclimatization - maternal plasticity - may ameliorate risk, but is poorly studied. Previous studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by ±1°C. We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming - a self-rescue. We discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Recovery collapse coincident with ongoing carbon cycle perturbations following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petsios, E.; Bottjer, D. J.

2016-12-01

The Permian-Triassic mass extinction, the largest extinction of the Phanerozoic, is attributed to volcanic outgassing from the Siberian Traps and the resulting climate change. Ongoing volcanism in the Early Triassic is implicated for continued carbon cycle instability following the initial event, reflected in large inorganic carbon isotope excursions throughout the 5 Mya interval. Recent paleoecological studies have shown that timing of recovery from the extinction in the Early Triassic is highly complex, differing between regions, with documented cases of "early" recovery in some environments. The importance of specific environmental factors, such as oxygen levels and sea surface temperatures, in aiding or hindering recovery following the extinction is the topic of ongoing study. Here we present an ecological survey of marine benthic communities from the Lower Triassic Blacktail Creek outcrop of the Dinwoody Formation, correlated bed-for-bed with inorganic carbon isotope values. We observe incipient recovery as communities show increasing richness and evenness throughout the section, followed by a `collapse' with a return of high dominance, low richness fauna coincident with large δ13Ccarb shifts. We observe a statistically significant correlation between the magnitude of δ13Ccarb excursions and benthic community complexity over a stratigraphic section, implying a shared causal mechanism acting at the local scale. The globally correlatable nature of these observed carbon isotope shifts, as well as an absence of lithologic evidence for oxygen limitation, points to thermal stress brought on by pulses of volcanism as the shared cause between recovery collapse and carbon cycle perturbations. We propose that the "early" recovery at Blacktail Creek was truncated by recurrent greenhouse gas induced thermal spikes, highlighting the interplay of local and global environmental conditions in expediting or hindering Early Triassic recovery.

Severest crisis overlooked—Worst disruption of terrestrial environments postdates the Permian–Triassic mass extinction

PubMed Central

Hochuli, Peter A.; Sanson-Barrera, Anna; Schneebeli-Hermann, Elke; Bucher, Hugo

2016-01-01

Generally Early Triassic floras are believed to be depauperate, suffering from protracted recovery following the Permian–Triassic extinction event. Here we present palynological data of an expanded East Greenland section documenting recovered floras in the basal Triassic (Griesbachian) and a subsequent fundamental floral turnover, postdating the Permian–Triassic boundary extinction by about 500 kyrs. This event is marked by a swap in dominating floral elements, changing from gymnosperm pollen-dominated associations in the Griesbachian to lycopsid spore-dominated assemblages in the Dienerian. This turnover coincides with an extreme δ13Corg negative shift revealing a severe environmental crisis, probably induced by volcanic outbursts of the Siberian Traps, accompanied by a climatic turnover, changing from cool and dry in the Griesbachian to hot and humid in the Dienerian. Estimates of sedimentation rates suggest that this environmental alteration took place within some 1000 years. Similar, coeval changes documented on the North Indian Margin (Pakistan) and the Bowen Basin (Australia) indicate the global extent of this crisis. Our results evidence the first profound disruption of the recovery of terrestrial environments about 500kyrs after the Permian–Triassic extinction event. It was followed by another crisis, about 1myrs later thus, the Early Triassic can be characterised as a time of successive environmental crises. PMID:27340926

Floaters may buffer the extinction risk of small populations: an empirical assessment

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The high extinction risk of small populations is commonly explained by reductions in fecundity and breeder survival associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, ecological theory suggests that population extinctions may also arise from reductions in the number of floaters able to replace the lost breeders. This can be particularly plausible under harsh fragmentation scenarios, where species must survive as small populations subjected to severe effects of stochasticity. Using a woodpecker study in fragmented habitats (2004–2016), we provide here empirical support for the largely neglected hypothesis that floaters buffer population extirpation risks. After controlling for population size, patch size and the intrinsic quality of habitat, populations in patches with floaters had a lower extinction probability than populations in patches without floaters (0.013 versus 0.131). Floaters, which often replace the lost breeders, were less likely to occur in small and low-quality patches, showing that population extirpations may arise from unnoticed reductions in floater numbers in poor-quality habitats. We argue that adequate pools of the typically overlooked floaters may buffer extirpation risks by reducing the detrimental impacts of demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, unravelling the influence of floaters in buffering stochastic effects and promoting population stability require additional studies in an ample array of species and stochastic scenarios. PMID:28424345

Floaters may buffer the extinction risk of small populations: an empirical assessment.

PubMed

Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

2017-04-26

The high extinction risk of small populations is commonly explained by reductions in fecundity and breeder survival associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, ecological theory suggests that population extinctions may also arise from reductions in the number of floaters able to replace the lost breeders. This can be particularly plausible under harsh fragmentation scenarios, where species must survive as small populations subjected to severe effects of stochasticity. Using a woodpecker study in fragmented habitats (2004-2016), we provide here empirical support for the largely neglected hypothesis that floaters buffer population extirpation risks. After controlling for population size, patch size and the intrinsic quality of habitat, populations in patches with floaters had a lower extinction probability than populations in patches without floaters (0.013 versus 0.131). Floaters, which often replace the lost breeders, were less likely to occur in small and low-quality patches, showing that population extirpations may arise from unnoticed reductions in floater numbers in poor-quality habitats. We argue that adequate pools of the typically overlooked floaters may buffer extirpation risks by reducing the detrimental impacts of demographic and environmental stochasticity. However, unravelling the influence of floaters in buffering stochastic effects and promoting population stability require additional studies in an ample array of species and stochastic scenarios. © 2017 The Author(s).

Unusual Deep Water sponge assemblage in South China—Witness of the end-Ordovician mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lixia; Feng, Hongzhen; Janussen, Dorte; Reitner, Joachim

2015-11-01

There are few sponges known from the end-Ordovician to early-Silurian strata all over the world, and no records of sponge fossils have been found yet in China during this interval. Here we report a unique sponge assemblage spanning the interval of the end-Ordovician mass extinction from the Kaochiapien Formation (Upper Ordovician-Lower Silurian) in South China. This assemblage contains a variety of well-preserved siliceous sponges, including both Burgess Shale-type and modern type taxa. It is clear that this assemblage developed in deep water, low energy ecosystem with less competitors and more vacant niches. Its explosion may be related to the euxinic and anoxic condition as well as the noticeable transgression during the end-Ordovician mass extinction. The excellent preservation of this assemblage is probably due to the rapid burial by mud turbidites. This unusual sponge assemblage provides a link between the Burgess Shale-type deep water sponges and the modern forms. It gives an excellent insight into the deep sea palaeoecology and the macroevolution of Phanerozoic sponges, and opens a new window to investigate the marine ecosystem before and after the end-Ordovician mass extinction. It also offers potential to search for exceptional fossil biota across the Ordovician-Silurian boundary interval in China.

Unusual Deep Water sponge assemblage in South China—Witness of the end-Ordovician mass extinction

PubMed Central

Li, Lixia; Feng, Hongzhen; Janussen, Dorte; Reitner, Joachim

2015-01-01

There are few sponges known from the end-Ordovician to early-Silurian strata all over the world, and no records of sponge fossils have been found yet in China during this interval. Here we report a unique sponge assemblage spanning the interval of the end-Ordovician mass extinction from the Kaochiapien Formation (Upper Ordovician-Lower Silurian) in South China. This assemblage contains a variety of well-preserved siliceous sponges, including both Burgess Shale-type and modern type taxa. It is clear that this assemblage developed in deep water, low energy ecosystem with less competitors and more vacant niches. Its explosion may be related to the euxinic and anoxic condition as well as the noticeable transgression during the end-Ordovician mass extinction. The excellent preservation of this assemblage is probably due to the rapid burial by mud turbidites. This unusual sponge assemblage provides a link between the Burgess Shale-type deep water sponges and the modern forms. It gives an excellent insight into the deep sea palaeoecology and the macroevolution of Phanerozoic sponges, and opens a new window to investigate the marine ecosystem before and after the end-Ordovician mass extinction. It also offers potential to search for exceptional fossil biota across the Ordovician-Silurian boundary interval in China. PMID:26538179

Unusual Deep Water sponge assemblage in South China-Witness of the end-Ordovician mass extinction.

PubMed

Li, Lixia; Feng, Hongzhen; Janussen, Dorte; Reitner, Joachim

2015-11-05

There are few sponges known from the end-Ordovician to early-Silurian strata all over the world, and no records of sponge fossils have been found yet in China during this interval. Here we report a unique sponge assemblage spanning the interval of the end-Ordovician mass extinction from the Kaochiapien Formation (Upper Ordovician-Lower Silurian) in South China. This assemblage contains a variety of well-preserved siliceous sponges, including both Burgess Shale-type and modern type taxa. It is clear that this assemblage developed in deep water, low energy ecosystem with less competitors and more vacant niches. Its explosion may be related to the euxinic and anoxic condition as well as the noticeable transgression during the end-Ordovician mass extinction. The excellent preservation of this assemblage is probably due to the rapid burial by mud turbidites. This unusual sponge assemblage provides a link between the Burgess Shale-type deep water sponges and the modern forms. It gives an excellent insight into the deep sea palaeoecology and the macroevolution of Phanerozoic sponges, and opens a new window to investigate the marine ecosystem before and after the end-Ordovician mass extinction. It also offers potential to search for exceptional fossil biota across the Ordovician-Silurian boundary interval in China.

Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fordham, D. A.; Akçakaya, H. R.; Brook, B. W.; Rodríguez, A.; Alves, P. C.; Civantos, E.; Triviño, M.; Watts, M. J.; Araújo, M. B.

2013-10-01

The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction. Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species, but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species' habitat shifts. Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source-sink dynamics to directly investigate the combined effects of climate change, prey availability and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lynx. Our approach is unique in that it explicitly models dynamic bi-trophic species interactions in a climate change setting. We show that anticipated climate change will rapidly and severely decrease lynx abundance and probably lead to its extinction in the wild within 50 years, even with strong global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In stark contrast, we also show that a carefully planned reintroduction programme, accounting for the effects of climate change, prey abundance and habitat connectivity, could avert extinction of the lynx this century. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, why considering prey availability, climate change and their interaction in models is important when designing policies to prevent future biodiversity loss.

Gymnosperms on the EDGE.

PubMed

Forest, Félix; Moat, Justin; Baloch, Elisabeth; Brummitt, Neil A; Bachman, Steve P; Ickert-Bond, Steffi; Hollingsworth, Peter M; Liston, Aaron; Little, Damon P; Mathews, Sarah; Rai, Hardeep; Rydin, Catarina; Stevenson, Dennis W; Thomas, Philip; Buerki, Sven

2018-04-16

Driven by limited resources and a sense of urgency, the prioritization of species for conservation has been a persistent concern in conservation science. Gymnosperms (comprising ginkgo, conifers, cycads, and gnetophytes) are one of the most threatened groups of living organisms, with 40% of the species at high risk of extinction, about twice as many as the most recent estimates for all plants (i.e. 21.4%). This high proportion of species facing extinction highlights the urgent action required to secure their future through an objective prioritization approach. The Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) method rapidly ranks species based on their evolutionary distinctiveness and the extinction risks they face. EDGE is applied to gymnosperms using a phylogenetic tree comprising DNA sequence data for 85% of gymnosperm species (923 out of 1090 species), to which the 167 missing species were added, and IUCN Red List assessments available for 92% of species. The effect of different extinction probability transformations and the handling of IUCN data deficient species on the resulting rankings is investigated. Although top entries in our ranking comprise species that were expected to score well (e.g. Wollemia nobilis, Ginkgo biloba), many were unexpected (e.g. Araucaria araucana). These results highlight the necessity of using approaches that integrate evolutionary information in conservation science.

Fire spread probabilities for experimental beds composed of mixedwood boreal forest fuels

Treesearch

M.B. Dickinson; E.A. Johnson; R. Artiaga

2013-01-01

Although fuel characteristics are assumed to have an important impact on fire regimes through their effects on extinction dynamics, limited capabilities exist for predicting whether a fire will spread in mixedwood boreal forest surface fuels. To improve predictive capabilities, we conducted 347 no-wind, laboratory test burns in surface fuels collected from the mixed-...

A cellular automaton model of wildfire propagation and extinction

Treesearch

Keith C. Clarke; James A. Brass; Phillip J. Riggan

1994-01-01

We propose a new model to predict the spatial and temporal behavior of wildfires. Fire spread and intensity were simulated using a cellular automaton model. Monte Carlo techniques were used to provide fire risk probabilities for areas where fuel loadings and topography are known. The model assumes predetermined or measurable environmental variables such as wind...

Stability analysis for virus spreading in complex networks with quarantine and non-homogeneous transition rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alarcon-Ramos, L. A.; Schaum, A.; Rodríguez Lucatero, C.; Bernal Jaquez, R.

2014-03-01

Virus propagations in complex networks have been studied in the framework of discrete time Markov process dynamical systems. These studies have been carried out under the assumption of homogeneous transition rates, yielding conditions for virus extinction in terms of the transition probabilities and the largest eigenvalue of the connectivity matrix. Nevertheless the assumption of homogeneous rates is rather restrictive. In the present study we consider non-homogeneous transition rates, assigned according to a uniform distribution, with susceptible, infected and quarantine states, thus generalizing the previous studies. A remarkable result of this analysis is that the extinction depends on the weakest element in the network. Simulation results are presented for large free-scale networks, that corroborate our theoretical findings.

State shift in Deccan volcanism at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, possibly induced by impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renne, Paul R.; Sprain, Courtney J.; Richards, Mark A.; Self, Stephen; Vanderkluysen, Loÿc; Pande, Kanchan

2015-10-01

Bolide impact and flood volcanism compete as leading candidates for the cause of terminal-Cretaceous mass extinctions. High-precision 40Ar/39Ar data indicate that these two mechanisms may be genetically related, and neither can be considered in isolation. The existing Deccan Traps magmatic system underwent a state shift approximately coincident with the Chicxulub impact and the terminal-Cretaceous mass extinctions, after which ~70% of the Traps' total volume was extruded in more massive and more episodic eruptions. Initiation of this new regime occurred within ~50,000 years of the impact, which is consistent with transient effects of impact-induced seismic energy. Postextinction recovery of marine ecosystems was probably suppressed until after the accelerated volcanism waned.

Interaction between photons and leaf canopies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knyazikhin, Yuri V.; Marshak, Alexander L.; Myneni, Ranga B.

1991-01-01

The physics of neutral particle interaction for photons traveling in media consisting of finite-dimensional scattering centers that cross-shade mutually is investigated. A leaf canopy is a typical example of such media. The leaf canopy is idealized as a binary medium consisting of randomly distributed gaps (voids) and regions with phytoelements (turbid phytomedium). In this approach, the leaf canopy is represented by a combination of all possible open oriented spheres. The mathematical approach for characterizing the structure of the host medium is considered. The extinction coefficient at any phase-space location in a leaf canopy is the product of the extinction coefficient in the turbid phytomedium and the probability of absence gaps at that location. Using a similar approach, an expression for the differential scattering coefficient is derived.

Demographic and genetic viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal in a fire prone, rapidly urbanizing landscape.

PubMed

Ramalho, Cristina E; Ottewell, Kym M; Chambers, Brian K; Yates, Colin J; Wilson, Barbara A; Bencini, Roberta; Barrett, Geoff

2018-01-01

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare.

Demographic and genetic viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal in a fire prone, rapidly urbanizing landscape

PubMed Central

Ottewell, Kym M.; Chambers, Brian K.; Yates, Colin J.; Wilson, Barbara A.; Bencini, Roberta; Barrett, Geoff

2018-01-01

The rapid and large-scale urbanization of peri-urban areas poses major and complex challenges for wildlife conservation. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the influence of urban encroachment, fire, and fauna crossing structures, with and without accounting for inbreeding effects, on the metapopulation viability of a medium-sized ground-dwelling mammal, the southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus), in the rapidly expanding city of Perth, Australia. We surveyed two metapopulations over one and a half years, and parameterized the PVA models using largely field-collected data. The models revealed that spatial isolation imposed by housing and road encroachment has major impacts on I. obesulus. Although the species is known to persist in small metapopulations at moderate levels of habitat fragmentation, the models indicate that these populations become highly vulnerable to demographic decline, genetic deterioration, and local extinction under increasing habitat connectivity loss. Isolated metapopulations were also predicted to be highly sensitive to fire, with large-scale fires having greater negative impacts on population abundance than small-scale ones. To reduce the risk of decline and local extirpation of I. obesulus and other small- to medium-sized ground-dwelling mammals in urbanizing, fire prone landscapes, we recommend that remnant vegetation and vegetated, structurally-complex corridors between habitat patches be retained. Well-designed road underpasses can be effective to connect habitat patches and reduce the probability of inbreeding and genetic differentiation; however, adjustment of fire management practices to limit the size of unplanned fires and ensure the retention of long unburnt vegetation will also be required to ensure persistence. Our study supports the evidence that in rapidly urbanizing landscapes, a pro-active conservation approach is required that manages species at the metapopulation level and that prioritizes metapopulations and habitat with greater long-term probability of persistence and conservation capacity, respectively. This strategy may help us prevent future declines and local extirpations, and currently relatively common species from becoming rare. PMID:29444118

Occupancy and abundance of Eleutherodactylus wightmanae and E. brittoni along elevational gradients in west-central Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Kelen D.; Collazo, Jaime A.; Pacifici, Krishna; Reich, Brian J.; Puente-Rolón, Alberto R.; Terando, Adam J.

2017-01-01

Populations of Eleutherodactylus species in Puerto Rico have declined in recent decades due to habitat loss and long-term climatic changes. The conservation of these habitat specialists requires an understanding of factors influencing their abundance and distribution, which at present is scant. We estimated occupancy probability and the probability of encountering ≥2 individuals of E. wightmanae (Melodius Coqui or Wightman's Robber Frog) and E. brittoni (Grass Coqui), species with contrasting habitat affinities, using multi-season, multi-state occupancy models. These parameters also served as an index of abundance (non-presence, 1, and ≥2 individuals). We modeled parameters as a function of seasonal temperature and humidity, long-term average monthly precipitation, and habitat covariates measured at survey sites along 2 elevation gradients in the southern slopes of west-central Puerto Rico. We collected survey data using passive acoustic recorders during 3 seasonal periods between February and July 2015. Occupancy patterns of both species was unimodal, containing higher probabilities (e.g., ≥0.5) at elevations between 400 m and 700 m, where long-term monthly precipitation varied between 120 mm and 160 mm. Chances of encountering ≥2 individuals increased with ground cover for E. brittoni, and decreased with increasing canopy cover for E. wightmanae. Seasonal temperature and relative humidity did not influence occupancy or the probability of encountering ≥2 individuals, likely because covariates varied within known tolerance levels for Eleutherodactylus. Our findings help reduce local extinction probability through management of habitat conditions that increase the likelihood of encountering ≥2 individuals. We also detailed an analytical framework suitable to test hypotheses aimed at predicting potential impacts from land use and climatic changes, and species responses to conservation actions.

Range contraction enables harvesting to extinction.

PubMed

Burgess, Matthew G; Costello, Christopher; Fredston-Hermann, Alexa; Pinsky, Malin L; Gaines, Steven D; Tilman, David; Polasky, Stephen

2017-04-11

Economic incentives to harvest a species usually diminish as its abundance declines, because harvest costs increase. This prevents harvesting to extinction. A known exception can occur if consumer demand causes a declining species' harvest price to rise faster than costs. This threat may affect rare and valuable species, such as large land mammals, sturgeons, and bluefin tunas. We analyze a similar but underappreciated threat, which arises when the geographic area (range) occupied by a species contracts as its abundance declines. Range contractions maintain the local densities of declining populations, which facilitates harvesting to extinction by preventing abundance declines from causing harvest costs to rise. Factors causing such range contractions include schooling, herding, or flocking behaviors-which, ironically, can be predator-avoidance adaptations; patchy environments; habitat loss; and climate change. We use a simple model to identify combinations of range contractions and price increases capable of causing extinction from profitable overharvesting, and we compare these to an empirical review. We find that some aquatic species that school or forage in patchy environments experience sufficiently severe range contractions as they decline to allow profitable harvesting to extinction even with little or no price increase; and some high-value declining aquatic species experience severe price increases. For terrestrial species, the data needed to evaluate our theory are scarce, but available evidence suggests that extinction-enabling range contractions may be common among declining mammals and birds. Thus, factors causing range contraction as abundance declines may pose unexpectedly large extinction risks to harvested species.

Intra-accumbal Cannabinoid Agonist Attenuated Reinstatement but not Extinction Period of Morphine-Induced Conditioned Place Preference; Evidence for Different Characteristics of Extinction Period and Reinstatement.

PubMed

Khaleghzadeh-Ahangar, Hossein; Haghparast, Abbas

2017-11-01

The brain reward system consists of the ventral tegmental area that sends its dopaminergic projections to the forebrain, cortical areas, amygdala and largely to the nucleus accumbens (NAc). The present study aims were to investigate the effects of bilateral intra-accumbal microinjection of WIN55,212-2, a CB1 receptor agonist, on the duration of extinction period and reinstatement to morphine by the conditioned place preference (CPP) paradigm in the rat. Forty-six adult male albino Wistar rats received intra-accumbal WIN55,212-2 [p0.5, 1 and 2 mM/0.5 μl dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO)] injections bilaterally. To induce CPP, morphine (5 mg/kg) was injected subcutaneously over three consecutive days. The results showed that intra-NAc administration of WIN55,212-2 during the extinction period had no effect on its duration but single administration of the1 mM/0.5 μl DMSO dose just before the reinstatement phase significantly attenuated its conditioning score. This is the first time that interactions of opioid and cannabinoid systems by local activation of CB1 receptors in the NAc during extinction and morphine-induced reinstatement were investigated. The CB1 agonist can inhibit and eliminate the reward-associated memory of morphine and the conditioning score in reinstatement but not in the extinction period. Our findings suggest that the extinction period and reinstatement could occur through different mechanisms.

Genetic variability and effective population size when local extinction and recolonization of subpopulations are frequent

PubMed Central

Maruyama, Takeo; Kimura, Motoo

1980-01-01

If a population (species) consists of n haploid lines (subpopulations) which reproduce asexually and each of which is subject to random extinction and subsequent replacement, it is shown that, at equilibrium in which mutational production of new alleles and their random extinction balance each other, the genetic diversity (1 minus the sum of squares of allelic frequencies) is given by 2Nev/(1 + 2Nev), where [Formula: see text] in which Ñ is the harmonic mean of the population size per line, n is the number of lines (assumed to be large), λ is the rate of line extinction, and v is the mutation rate (assuming the infinite neutral allele model). In a diploid population (species) consisting of n colonies, if migration takes place between colonies at the rate m (the island model) in addition to extinction and recolonization of colonies, it is shown that effective population size is [Formula: see text] If the rate of colony extinction (λ) is much larger than the migration rate of individuals, the effective population size is greatly reduced compared with the case in which no colony extinctions occur (in which case Ne = nÑ). The stepping-stone type of recolonization scheme is also considered. Bearing of these results on the interpretation of the level of genetic variability at the enzyme level observed in natural populations is discussed from the standpoint of the neutral mutation-random drift hypothesis. PMID:16592920

Range contraction enables harvesting to extinction

PubMed Central

Burgess, Matthew G.; Costello, Christopher; Gaines, Steven D.; Tilman, David; Polasky, Stephen

2017-01-01

Economic incentives to harvest a species usually diminish as its abundance declines, because harvest costs increase. This prevents harvesting to extinction. A known exception can occur if consumer demand causes a declining species’ harvest price to rise faster than costs. This threat may affect rare and valuable species, such as large land mammals, sturgeons, and bluefin tunas. We analyze a similar but underappreciated threat, which arises when the geographic area (range) occupied by a species contracts as its abundance declines. Range contractions maintain the local densities of declining populations, which facilitates harvesting to extinction by preventing abundance declines from causing harvest costs to rise. Factors causing such range contractions include schooling, herding, or flocking behaviors—which, ironically, can be predator-avoidance adaptations; patchy environments; habitat loss; and climate change. We use a simple model to identify combinations of range contractions and price increases capable of causing extinction from profitable overharvesting, and we compare these to an empirical review. We find that some aquatic species that school or forage in patchy environments experience sufficiently severe range contractions as they decline to allow profitable harvesting to extinction even with little or no price increase; and some high-value declining aquatic species experience severe price increases. For terrestrial species, the data needed to evaluate our theory are scarce, but available evidence suggests that extinction-enabling range contractions may be common among declining mammals and birds. Thus, factors causing range contraction as abundance declines may pose unexpectedly large extinction risks to harvested species. PMID:28351981

Sweet vernal grasses (Anthoxanthum) colonized African mountains along two fronts in the Late Pliocene, followed by secondary contact, polyploidization and local extinction in the Pleistocene.

PubMed

Tusiime, Felly Mugizi; Gizaw, Abel; Wondimu, Tigist; Masao, Catherine Aloyce; Abdi, Ahmed Abdikadir; Muwanika, Vincent; Trávníček, Pavel; Nemomissa, Sileshi; Popp, Magnus; Eilu, Gerald; Brochmann, Christian; Pimentel, Manuel

2017-07-01

High tropical mountains harbour remarkable and fragmented biodiversity thought to a large degree to have been shaped by multiple dispersals of cold-adapted lineages from remote areas. Few dated phylogenetic/phylogeographic analyses are however available. Here, we address the hypotheses that the sub-Saharan African sweet vernal grasses have a dual colonization history and that lineages of independent origins have established secondary contact. We carried out rangewide sampling across the eastern African high mountains, inferred dated phylogenies from nuclear ribosomal and plastid DNA using Bayesian methods, and performed flow cytometry and AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) analyses. We inferred a single Late Pliocene western Eurasian origin of the eastern African taxa, whose high-ploid populations in one mountain group formed a distinct phylogeographic group and carried plastids that diverged from those of the currently allopatric southern African lineage in the Mid- to Late Pleistocene. We show that Anthoxanthum has an intriguing history in sub-Saharan Africa, including Late Pliocene colonization from southeast and north, followed by secondary contact, hybridization, allopolyploidization and local extinction during one of the last glacial cycles. Our results add to a growing body of evidence showing that isolated tropical high mountain habitats have a dynamic recent history involving niche conservatism and recruitment from remote sources, repeated dispersals, diversification, hybridization and local extinction. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pacing of Paleozoic macroevolutionary rates by Milankovitch grand cycles.

PubMed

Crampton, James S; Meyers, Stephen R; Cooper, Roger A; Sadler, Peter M; Foote, Michael; Harte, David

2018-05-29

Periodic fluctuations in past biodiversity, speciation, and extinction have been proposed, with extremely long periods ranging from 26 to 62 million years, although forcing mechanisms remain speculative. In contrast, well-understood periodic Milankovitch climate forcing represents a viable driver for macroevolutionary fluctuations, although little evidence for such fluctuation exists except during the Late Cenozoic. The reality, magnitude, and drivers of periodic fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates are of interest given long-standing debate surrounding the relative roles of intrinsic biotic interactions vs. extrinsic environmental factors as drivers of biodiversity change. Here, we show that, over a time span of 60 million years, between 9 and 16% of the variance in biological turnover (i.e., speciation probability plus species extinction probability) in a major Early Paleozoic zooplankton group, the graptoloids, can be explained by long-period astronomical cycles (Milankovitch "grand cycles") associated with Earth's orbital eccentricity (2.6 million years) and obliquity (1.3 million years). These grand cycles modulate climate variability, alternating times of relative stability in the environment with times of maximum volatility. We infer that these cycles influenced graptolite speciation and extinction through climate-driven changes to oceanic circulation and structure. Our results confirm the existence of Milankovitch grand cycles in the Early Paleozoic Era and show that known processes related to the mechanics of the Solar System were shaping marine macroevolutionary rates comparatively early in the history of complex life. We present an application of hidden Markov models to macroevolutionary time series and protocols for the evaluation of statistical significance in spectral analysis.

Red List of amphibians and reptiles of the Wadden Sea area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fog, K.; Podloucky, R.; Dierking, U.; Stumpel, A. H. P.

1996-10-01

In the Wadden Sea, in total, 8 species of amphibians and 4 species of reptiles are threatened in at least one subregion. Of these, 7 species of amphibians and all 4 species of reptiles are threatened in the entire area and are therefore placed on the trilateral Red List. 1 species of the listed reptiles is (probably) extinct in the entire Wadden Sea area. The status of 1 species of amphibians is endangered, the status of (probably) 4 species of amphibians and 3 species of reptiles are vulnerable and of 2 species of amphibians susceptible.

Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

PubMed

Veron, Simon; Davies, T Jonathan; Cadotte, Marc W; Clergeau, Philippe; Pavoine, Sandrine

2017-02-01

The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic groups and test the assumption that preserving ED and PD also protects rare species and ecosystem services. Such research will be useful to inform and guide the conservation of Earth's biodiversity and the services it provides. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Migration of comets to the terrestrial planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ipatov, Sergei I.; Mather, John C.

2007-05-01

The orbital evolution of 30,000 objects with initial orbits close to those of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) and also of 15,000 dust particles was integrated [1-3]. For initial orbital elements close to those of Comets 2P, 10P, 44P, and 113P, a few objects got Earth-crossing orbits with semi-major axes a<2 AU and aphelion distances Q<4.2 AU, or even got inner-Earth (Q<0.983 AU), Aten, or typical asteroidal orbits, and moved in such orbits for more than 1 Myr (up to tens or even hundreds of Myrs). Most of former trans-Neptunian objects that have typical near-Earth object (NEO) orbits moved in such orbits for Myrs, so during most of this time they were extinct comets. From a dynamical point of view, the fraction of extinct comets among NEOs can exceed several tens of percent, but, probably, many extinct comets disintegrated into mini-comets and dust during a smaller part of their dynamical lifetimes if these lifetimes were large. The probability of the collision of Comet 10P with the Earth during a dynamical lifetime of the comet was P[E]≈1.4•10-4, but 80% of this mean probability was due only to one object among 2600 considered objects with orbits close to that of Comet 10P. For runs for Comet 2P, P[E]≈(1-5)•10-4. For most other considered JFCs, 10-6 < P[E] < 10-5. For Comets 22P and 39P, P[E]≈ (1-2)•10-6; and for Comets 9P, 28P and 44P, P[E]≈(2-5)•10-6. For all considered JFCs, P[E]>4•10-6. The Bulirsh-Stoer method of integration and a symplectic method gave similar results. In our runs the probability of a collision of one object with the Earth could be greater than the sum of probabilities for thousands of other objects. The ratios of probabilities of collisions of JFCs with Venus and Mars to the mass of a planet usually were not smaller than that for Earth. For dust particles started from comets and asteroids, P[E ]was maximum for diameters d~100 μm. These maximum values of P [E] were usually (exclusive for 2P) greater at least by an order of magnitude than the values for parent comets. [1] Ipatov S.I. and Mather J.C. (2004) Annals of the New York Acad. of Sci., v. 1017, 46-65. [2] Ipatov S.I. et al. (2004) Annals of the New York Acad. of Sci., v. 1017, 66-80. [3] Ipatov S.I. and Mather J.C. (2006) Adv. in Space Res., v. 37, N 1, 126-137.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hlaing Myat Thu; Department of Medical Research, Ziwaka Road, Yangon 11191; Lowry, Kym

Between 1996 and 1998, two clades (B and C; genotype I) of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) appeared in Myanmar (Burma) that were new to that location. Between 1998 and 2000, a third clade (A; genotype III) of DENV-1, which had been circulating at that locality for at least 25 years, became extinct. These changes preceded the largest outbreak of dengue recorded in Myanmar, in 2001, in which more than 95% of viruses recovered from patients were DENV-1, but where the incidence of severe disease was much less than in previous years. Phylogenetic analyses of viral genomes indicated that themore » two new clades of DENV-1 did not arise from the, now extinct, clade A viruses nor was the extinction of this clade due to differences in the fitness of the viral populations. Since the extinction occurred during an inter-epidemic period, we suggest that it was due to a stochastic event attributable to the low rate of virus transmission in this interval.« less

MODELING EXTRAGALACTIC EXTINCTION THROUGH GAMMA-RAY BURST AFTERGLOWS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zonca, Alberto; Mulas, Giacomo; Casu, Silvia

We analyze extragalactic extinction profiles derived through gamma-ray burst afterglows, using a dust model specifically constructed on the assumption that dust grains are not immutable but respond, time-dependently, to the local physics. Such a model includes core-mantle spherical particles of mixed chemical composition (silicate core, sp{sup 2}, and sp{sup 3} carbonaceous layers), and an additional molecular component in the form of free-flying polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. We fit most of the observed extinction profiles. Failures occur for lines of sight, presenting remarkable rises blueward of the bump. We find a tendency for the carbon chemical structure to become more aliphatic withmore » the galactic activity, and to some extent with increasing redshifts. Moreover, the contribution of the molecular component to the total extinction is more important in younger objects. The results of the fitting procedure (either successes and failures) may be naturally interpreted through an evolutionary prescription based on the carbon cycle in the interstellar medium of galaxies.« less